This game fits a situation that is 177-112 ATS and the play is on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 153-89-8 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a total situation that is 46-6 ATS. The play is on the under.

season>=2012 and HD and line>8 and total>=39 and total

This game fits a totals system that plays on the under at 127-53-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals system that plays on the under at 127-53-2 ATS. Make the play on the under.

This game fits my strongest NFL totals situation (at least by winning percentage).This game fits a 46-5 ATS situation and the play is on the under.

  avg total: 45.0

Make the play on the under

  avg total: 45.0

Make the play on the under

This game fits a totals situation that is 188-110 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation that is 163-110 ATS to the under. Make the play on the under.

 Kansas City is one of the loudest places to play in the entire NFL. It helps elevate the Chiefs below-average defense, and at the same time, it tends to lower the offensive output, but not in the way you would think. here is what I mean. Since taking over at QB at the beginning of last season Pat Mahomes and the Chiefs have averaged 32.2ppg at home, but 37.1 on the road. The biggest reason is they have led on average by 12ppg at home. This tends to lead to a shorter game, with the big plays kept off the field. The Chiefs defense allows 31.2ppg on the road but just 20.2ppg at home. That is 12 points different. Overall the Chiefs road games average 68.3ppg and home games just 52.4ppg. A 16ppg differential. The reason is similar, they average leading at the half on the road by an average of just 2.6ppg, almost a full 10 points less than at home. This is what has caused a hidden value on the total in this contest. Moreover, 8 of the Chiefs 11 home games have seen 57 or fewer points scored between both teams. Make the play on the under.

This game is backed by one of just a few systems that I blindly bet because it has been that good. The situation is 126-53-2 ATS and the play is in the UNDER.

NFL TEAMS IN A GAME FOLLOWING A DEFENSIVE TD:

Nothing can skew a box score more than a game that featured a team that scored without their offense. The next game tendency is usually impacted with a higher than normal total, as odds-makers realize most bettors don't go into great detail from the previous game. This applies significantly to division games, which are historically bias to the under.

ALL NFL GAME TOTAL RESULTS BY GAME TYPE (RESULTS ARE THE PERCENTAGE UNDER THE TOTAL):

NON-CONFERENCE                   48.8%       

CONF (But not division)               50.1%

DIVISION                                   52.1%****

It is clear division games have a much higher probability of playing under. These teams tend to know tendencies from playing each other twice a season every season. 

So now when the totals get skewed by a previous game that involved defensive TD things become profitable. Let's take a look:

1)  Home team scored a defensive TD in its last game

2)  This game is a division game

These games have gone:

93-145-5 O/U  or 60.1% to the UNDER

 Make the play on the UNDER

This game is a systems play. It plays on the UNDER when there is a division home favorite to a total of 44 or higher, if the opponent allowed less than 3 points last game:

 division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points

This game is a systems play. It plays on the UNDER when there is a division home favorite to a total of 44 or higher, if the opponent allowed less than 3 points last game:

 division=o:division and HF and total>43.5 and rest=6 and opo:points

This game is based on a situation that is 109-186-2 ATS to the UNDER. 

This game is based in large part to a very strong UNDER situation that looks like this:

Play the under in a division game with a home favorite and total >43.5 if the home favorite is on regular rest, and the opponent's previous opponent scored 31 or less points. Make the play on the UNDER.

Sunday, January 20th, 2019

There is a long-standing playoff marker that indicates surface matters in the NFL playoffs. here is what I am talking about:

reg season HF    grass         1275-1316  O/U

playoffs HF         grass            34-45      O/U

******************************************************

reg season   artificial             1064-1113  O/U

playoffs        artificial                 44-28     O/U

results are approx. 20% different to the total.

Playoff teams as a home favorite on artificial turf to a total of higher than 47.5 vs an opponent that played its last game on grass and averages more than 23ppg are 15-2 to the over. Make the play on the over.

The New England Patriots allowed a grand total of 32 points in their last 3 games. This may poise many bettors to look at the under here. History proves otherwise, as a playoff team that has allowed 32 or less combined points in their last 3 games are 35-14 ATS to the over. That includes 9-0 ATS to the over of the total is 46 or higher and 17-4 ATS if the total is higher than 43. Unlike many years in New England, foul weather will not be in play. Make the play on the over. 

NFL Thursday division games with a total from 36.5 to 45 are 22-2 to the under after week 11. (15-1 under in the NFC). Make the play on the under.

The Giants are giving up points at an alarming rate, while the Falcons have topped the 30 point mark in 4 of their 6 games. It certainly looks like a shootout is about to take place, but then there is the contrarian nature of the NFL and history suggests otherwise. Here are some examples. A team that is allowing 27ppg or more on the season and has allowed 25 or more in 4 straight games is 4-26 O/U in their last 30 games, including 0-10 O/U in the last 10. Giants have played 14-33 O/U in their last 47 vs a team that allows 24 or more points per contest. The last 10 meetings between these teams, with no overtime has gone 0-9-1 O/U with no game topping 50 total points scored, averaging just 34 points a game. Make the play on the under.

The Indianapolis Colts will be without TY Hilton tonight, which is a blow to their offense. They also have 27 players on their injury report, the top number in the entire NFL. The Colts have played 9 straight games as a dog to the under, averaging just 15ppg. Thursday night home favorites of -9.5 or more are now 14-0 to the under vs an opponent with revenge, as long as the total is greater than 35. NFL Thursday Night games with a home favorite are 82-55 to the under, including 20-4 from -9.5 and up, with the opponent averaging 11.2ppg. (9.4ppg ig the opponent is playing with revenge). Make the play on the under.

I don't play a lot of blind systems but this one is 117-47, to the under, so make the play on this game in the under.

The Arizona Cardinals have managed 6 total points through 2 games. The 6 points they managed to score came in garbage time in the 4th quarter of their first game, with less than 6 minutes to go in the game. The biggest problem has been falling behind early, and having to throw the ball on almost every down. Sam Bradford therefore has been under siege and is averaging just 4 yards per attempt. The Cards longest run has been 11 yards, and longest pass 27 yards. Falling way behind early has limited their best offensive player, RB David Johnson to 11 carries a game. The NFL always looks different than it does 2 weeks into the season, and it forces the odds makers to over-adjust things in anticipation of the public's "what I have seen" posture of betting. Early season low totals have long been over-adjusted on a couple poor performances. Since the start of the 2005 season a week 3 total of 42 points or less, has seen the over go 54-21-1, beating the total on average by +5.12 points per game. Another indicator of an over-adjustment is the fact that when a team scores less than 7 points combined in 2 straight games, the over has been 27-10-2, beating the total by +6.96 points per game. The team that scored less than 7 points combined over 2 games, has come out in the next game averaging 20.1ppg. Make the play on the over.

NFL TOTALS, WHERE IS THE MONEY?

My research on sports betting totals is quite expansive. I believe that the easiest point of entry going against the books, and of course, the odds makers, can be achieved this way. The logic is pretty simple, some bettors hate totals, and even more bettors hate betting under the total, for the simple reason your bet may be lost before the game ends. 

The question then is, how do you find logical bets regarding totals, and successfully win at a high rate? The process begins as usual, by breaking down the 3 types of regular season games played in the NFL. They are divisional (6), conference (6), and out of conference (4). 

It would then make sense to take a look at match ups in all 3 levels to see what we are looking at:

GAME TYPE                 TOTAL RESULT O/U                WIN RATE     O/U

DIVISION                               1437-1546-53                           .482**

CONFERENCE                     1151-1152-59                           .500

NON CONFERENCE              881-841-26                             .512

************************************************************************************************************************************

This is no surprise to me, the UNDER rate strikes more frequently, as the level of importance to the game increases. The order of importance is the exact order you see above, and there is a correlation to game importance and frequency of the under. 

So now that we have isolated an important find, that through over 3000 games puts us ahead of the coin flip by about 2% or a vig eater if you will, what is next?

It would make sense to me is to now look at the game expectations? Do lower totals rend to stay UNDER? Do they go over? It is time for us to handicap the total, much the same as we did to discover division games were out target.

TOTAL                     TOTAL RESULT   O/U                  WIN RATE  O/U

=40                              843-987-35                                   .461**

Games expected to play under are over-adjusted, but from 40 up, they are under-adjusted. Suddenly we are in a large pocket of profit, with a base of over 1800 games. 

***************************************************************************************************************************************

Our last step is the best step. A team is at their most comfortable playing on 6 days rest, that is the routine they follow 80%+ of the time. We complete our look by only looking at a host on 6 days rest, and out final situation reads as the following SDQL:

Play on the under in a regular season division game when the total is 40 or more, and the home team is on regular 6 days rest:

division = o:division and playoffs = 0 and H and total >= 40 and rest = 6SU:662-507-2 (2.07, 56.6%) Teaser RecordsATS:545-592-34 (-0.28, 47.9%)  avg line: -2.3+6:  790-361-20 (68.6%)  -6:  328-823-20 (28.5%)  +10:  915-230-26 (79.9%)  -10:  232-919-20 (20.2%)  O/U:498-652-21 (-0.90, 43.3%)  avg total: 44.

We now have a sample size of close to 1300 games, and a win rate of 56.7%. (that is a z-score of 4.5, which is absolutely off the charts for 1300 games)!

This situation over the last 10 years has won in 9 of the 10, where recent results are even better at 58.8%

division = o:division and playoffs = 0 and H and total >= 40 and rest = 6 and season > 2008SU:235-193-2 (1.43, 54.9%) Teaser RecordsATS:208-215-7 (-0.83, 49.2%)  avg line: -2.3+6:  289-136-5 (68.0%)  -6:  112-309-9 (26.6%)  +10:  333-88-9 (79.1%)  -10:  76-347-7 (18.0%)  O/U:174-248-8 (-1.67, 41.2%) 

This week the situation is active in the New Orleans v Atlanta game: UNDER would be the call.

he Seattle Seahawks team from 2013 that culminated in a 43-8 blowout win over Denver, had many thinking dynasty. The team was young, had an emerging QB in Russell Wilson, and a dominant RB. Despite all the predictions, Seattle has not won since. Once considered one of the best NFL defenses of all time, has been eroding since, and with 5 Pro Bowlers all gone now, expect a further erosion. here are the Seattle points per game allowed starting with the 2013 Super Bowl winning team:

2013    14.3

2014    16.9

2015    17.6

2016    18.6

2017    20.8

*******************************************************

It is very clear, the erosion has been occurring ever since, and now with just about all those Pro Bowl players, the defense is on course to be bottom third in the NFL. Denver was led by poor QB play last season, which resulted in their first losing record since 2010. They brought in Case Keenum, who had a breakout season in Minnesota a year ago. he still has a pair of Pro Bowl quality receivers in Thomas and Sanders who should benefit with him at QB. Denver is going to struggle with the loss of Aqib Talib, a top 3 cover corner. There is also the altitude in Denver to deal with. Players early in the season are not in as good of game shape as they are 4 games into the season. Denver has been posted as a home favorite 8 times vs NFC opponents in week's 1-3 (NFC teams play here just once every 8 years), and are 8-0 to the over in those games. Denver overall is 17-4-1 to the over, in week's 1-3, providing the game is not against a division opponent. (those teams play here every year). Seattle hasn't been here in 8 years, and pretty much the entire roster is different. make the play on the over.

The Cleveland Browns have won just 1 game over the past 2 seasons, and optimism is high this year, as they have added some offensive weapons to the fold. I certainly think the offense will be better, but in game 1, I wouldn't be as optimistic. The potential productive core of this offense has had very little time together. Pittsburgh (as of now), will make die without Le'Veon Bell a holdout. The Steeleers have been an under team for the last 3 years at 17-30-1 O/U, and 6-11-1 O/U in the division, and over the years, Pitt is 30-52-2 O/U to a total of better than 40 within the division, including 8-23-2 O/U lately to a total over 44, inside the division. It is a division that has seen 6 yrs pass without division games totaled higher than 40 finish with the bulk of them over. Pittsburgh's last 60 division games have seen just 12/60 (20%) score 47+ points, while Cleveland has seen 47/58 fail to score 47+. (19%). Think this line is off, and getting this out early, as I expect to see it fall. Make the play on the under.

There are a lot of reasons I like this game to go over and situationally there is support. Jacksonville, in non-division games off a win where they committed 0 turnovers and had time of possession of at least 28 minutes, facing a team off of at least 2 wins is 21-0 ATS to the over.

 I have access to a lot of NFL stats, and with the playoffs, and teams from northern climates, the weather can become a factor. This game fits nicely into a weather factor game, due to the cold, and a team from a southern climate. The high in Pittsburgh is expected to be 17 on Sunday, so this game will be played with temperatures in the teens. The most recent 36 games played with a game time temperature from 11-20 degrees shows a big impact on the passing game, and ultimately the number of plays run in a game. Home QB`s pass for an average of 5.85 yds per attempt, road QB`s just 5.25 yards per attempt, much below average. When you look at games played in an average temperature of 61-70 the number of plays run is 120, when the temp. is 11-20 it drops to 113, 7 less plays. Moreover, a team from a southern climate, such as Jacksonville, averages 16.4ppg in this temp. range. Overall, including both teams, the 146 QB`s participating in 73 games in this range have thrown TD passes of 3 in 14 games, exactly 2 in 31 games, exactly 1 in 52 games, and 0 in 49 games. That means TD passes per QB is 101 of 146 throwing 1 or less TD pass. These numbers sugget a wise historically backed play on the under

The New England Patriots find themselves in a familiar spot, at home on a Saturday Night in week 19. This is New England and many times these games have been played in less than ideal conditions, and that will be the case in Foxboro Saturday Night. Right now Saturday is projected to see the temperature go from the low 60s on Friday afternoon, with 2-3" of rain, to a low of 8 degrees Saturday Night/Sunday Morning. I know the field is covered, but it is going to be treacherous footing as the game goes on. A soft field is going to become rock hard, and icy during the course of the game. Additionally, winds will be gusting over 20 MPH, and the combination is going to limit offenses, and the kicking game. I expect Tennessee to try and run and shorten the game, and should have some success vs a soft NE front. The New England offense is not nearly as explosive as it has been in past years, and I look for this game to play under the total.

This game is based mostly on my strongest NFL totals angle which is 116-46 ATS. Make the play on the under.

The New England patriots behind Bill Belichick and Tom Brady have been a lethal combination, and continue to be. I don't think anyone would be surprised if they once again landed in the Super Bowl. They will take the field tonight without Rob Gronkowski, and he is a vital weapon for the Pats, especially in the red-zone. The Pats historically have played under as a heavy road chalk as they are 6-13 O/U as a road favorite from -8 to -15. Scoring in the NFL started to surge at the start of the 2012 season, and the games that have felt the least impact have been huge home dogs. Since that time NFL home dogs of greater than +7.5 points are 8-35 O/U. (falling short by -7.63ppg). Weaknesses don't last long around Bill Belichick. The New England defense allowed 32ppg through the first 4 games, and since no team has scored more than 17, and the Pats are allowing a league best 11.9ppg. Make the play on the under.

Sunday December 10th, 2017

The Cleveland Browns have had a poor offense for quite some time, and the Packers offense behind Brett Hundley has been awful as well. The Browns defend a lot better than their record, and Green Bay has had success vs poor offensive teams. Weather is often an issue off the lake in Cleveland in December, and it will be today as well with winds from 15-20 MPH gusting to a high as 30 MPH. Cleveland is 18-29-1 O/U in their last 48 December home games, including 4-15 O/U since X-Mas Eve of 2006, and 0-7 O/U to a toatl of 39 or less. Make the play on the under.

It has been a season of misery and disappointment for the NY Giants, as they have gone from a playoff team in 2016 to 2-9 this season, with no hopes for the playoffs. The offense has been riddled with injuries, and has taken a step back averaging just 15.6ppg, and even worse than that over their last 5 games at 13.4ppg. The Giants last 2 games have combined to see 51 points scored by all teams, and when 51 or less points are scored in a team's last game, they are 25-10 to the over, and the Raiders are 21-8-2 to the over in their last 31 at home. More importantly here, this game fits a 39-4 situation to the over. Make the play on the over.

The Cleveland Browns have all kinds of issues, as they are 1-29 SU in their last 30, and here we are in December, and they are still looking for their first win. This is a team that has carried a strong home vs road dichotomy in their games. This season, they have averaged just 11ppg at home and allowed 20ppg, but on the road, they are scoring 19ppg, allowing 31.2ppg. This was also the case all of last season, scoring and allowing more on the road. The Browns last 21 road games have seen their opponent score 30+ in 2/3 of them, 27+ in 18/21, and 24+ in 20/21. The Browns offense has reached 20 points or more in half of their last 12 road games, while not topping 20 in 10 straight at home. They will have Josh Gordon in the line up, and Coach Hue Jackson says he will be instrumental in the offense this week. Chargers have allowed 24 or more points in 7 of their last 10 at home, and Cleveland has averaged 25ppg here in the last 2. Cleveland is 10-2 to the over in their last 12 on the road, while the Chargers are 7-1 to the over in their last 8 as a home favorite. Bigger than all that is the fact that road teams that scored 17 points or less, in at least their last 2 games, and also average 17 points or less on the season, and are playing to a total greater than 39, are 39-4 to the over last 43 occurrences. My NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR IS ON THE OVER.

This is a weather play on the under.

The Detroit Lions saved their season last week in Green Bay with a 27-17 win on Monday Night. That has gotten Detroit even at 4-4, but they have had red-zone issues all season. Detroit has managed just 45.8% scoring TD's in the red-zone, while Cleveland is at 45%. DeShone Kizer has been in and out as the Cleveland starting QB, and his 52% completion rate, just 3 TD's and 11 INT's are not NFL caliber at this stage of his career. The Browns have gotten to 20 points just one time this season, all the way back to game 3, and have averaged just 14.6ppg with Kizer at QB. The Browns defense is better than it looks, last year they allowed 10 teams to go for 400+ yards, and this year none. Think there is some value on the under here, and a situation here that is 31-69 O/U offers some support. Make the play on the under.

The San Francisco 49ers have been just bad enough to lose each of their first 6 games in 2017. They have lost the last 5 of them all by 3 points or less. Their first 2 games of the season saw them do nothing offensively, as they generated 12 total points and under 240 yards a game. The offense has been doing much better since, as they have averaged 25.3ppg on 366 yards per game. Last week CJ Bethard in his NFL debut looked like a poised veteran when he came in and threw for 245 yards on 19-36, and nearly rallied the Niners to victory. He will get the start Sunday. The Dallas offense is doing fine, but the defense has allowed 35 or more points in 3 of their last 4, and has been average on the season. San Francisco has been vulnerable in the air, and I would expect Dak Prescott to have a big game. A team that is off a home favorite loss, and playing on the road, in the first half of the season (prior to week 9)are 55.8% to the over. These teams in their last 4 games (8 games total), has seen the average points scored in their game at 55.8ppg. Niners 18-1 to the over as a single digit dog vs a team that forces less than 1.25 turnovers per game, and allows less than 4.95 yds a carry on the season since 2006, going over by over 7ppg. Make the play over the total.

This game is based on one of my top totals situations which is 57-17 ATS, make the play on the under.

The Atlanta Falcons had one of those seasons a year ago, where everything seemed to work perfectly, that is except for holding a big lead in the Super Bowl. Matt Ryan was on fire and dialed in the entire season throwing 44 TD's to just 7 INT's, including the playoffs. The Falcons reached 30 points in 13 games, and went 16-3 to the over. Those seasons are hard to duplicate, and things are not looking nearly the same this season. The 34.1ppg from a year ago has dropped to 26ppg this year, and Ryan is almost at his INT total from a year ago through 4 games, with 5. Moreover, Julio Jones was injured last game, and will play, but may not be up to speed, and Mohamed Sanu is still out with a hamstring injury. Miami is 2-2 despite averaging just 10.5ppg, and that is because they have not allowed any team to get over 20 on the season, and the most points scored in their games this year by both teams is just 36. They have played some very quick games, with none of them seeing as many as 120 total plays snapped. Ryan has faced Miami twice in the last 5 years with an average of 38 points scored. Miami fits a total situation that has been 34-59 O/U since 1989, and active for this one. Make the play on the under.

The Pittsburgh Steelers will host the Jacksonville Jaguars today. The Jaguars have not gotten the consistency out of QB Blake Bortles that they had hoped to have at this stage of his career, despite an inflated 44 points against Baltimore 2 games back. Bortles has a very pedestrian 81.7 passer rating coming into this contest, and their 5.8 yards per attempt vs defenses that average allowing 6.7 is considerably below average. The running game is +0.2 yards vs the defenses they have faced, so their 27.2ppg average is heading for a rather steep regression. Defensively, the Jags are allowing just 18.5ppg, and the biggest reason is their pass defense allowing just 4.8 yards per attempt. The Jags can however be run on, and I expect Pittsburgh to put it on the ground often here, as their offense has been very poor through 4 games, generating -0.5 yards per play vs what the defensive average of opponents allows. Pittsburgh has been even more elite than Jacksonville vs the pass, allowing 4.4 yards per attempt, but also struggle stopping opponents ground games. This game looks to be a ground war, and the last 23 meetings between these clubs has seen an average of just 36 total points scored, and Big Ben, in 7 games vs the Ville has averaged just 18.3ppg, and in the 23 meetings, Pittsburgh has never topped 30 points. Make the play on the under.

Maybe the Detroit Lions all carry a rabbit`s foot with them during games. The Lions are 3-1 on the season, and everything has gone their way. They were beaten severely from the line of scrimmage last week by more than 1.5 yards per play, but won. The Lions offense may be ranked in the top 10, but they have scored mostly from starting drives in opponents territory, as they rank last in the league in drives starting in their own territory. Carolina has a legit top level defense, but has allowed 62.5% TD`s in the red-zone, but only 8 attempts, and strong defenses are not prone to that type of percentage, so expect that to drop. This game also fits a totals indicator, based on how these teams got here off of last week, which has been 22-58 O/U and particularly strong recently. Make the play on the under.

The NY Giant offense is a total mess, and not up to speed with typical NFL standards. Outside of a breakout 4th quarter against Philadelphia, through 3 quarters of play in their 3 games they are averaging 4.3ppg. Overall on the season they average just 12.3ppg. There troubles didn`t start this season, as they failed to score 20 points in each of their last 6 games in 2016, and have now scored a woeful 129 points in their last 9 games, at 14.3ppg, and Giant`s games have now averaged 37.6ppg in their last 20 played. The Bucs have been inconsistent on offense, and are 6-2-1 to the under over their last 9 games. This game fits several under indicators that are 25-3,23-6-1, and 21-58. Make the play on the under.

The Arizona Cardinals opened their game vs Dallas on Monday Night, looking like a team that was ready to play. Dallas only managed to get 3 snaps the entire 1st quarter. The problem was, as dominate as they looked in the opening period, they looked ordinary from that point on. This team seems to lack intensity, and focus, as they take on the San Francisco 49ers this week. The Niners offense through 2 games was as inept as ever, managing just 12 total points, but they came to life vs the Rams in a tough 41-39 loss. QB Brian Hoyer threw for 308 yards in that one, and in his 16 starts in the NFL as a road dog, his team is 10-6 to the over. Carson Palmer has no running game with David Johnson out for the year, so it is no surprise the cards have averaged 44 pass attempts per contest. This game fits a match up situation that has produced a 66-28 ATS mark to the over, with more supportive strong situations as well. Make the play on the over.

Sometimes the light goes on for a QB, in year one, year two, year three, or sometimes not at all. The coaching changes, and new offense for the Rams has been taken on by QB Jered Goff. Goff was a `can`t miss` prospect that really struggled last year, but he has really awaken, and starting to pay dividends for the Rams. Goff has a 118 passer rating through 3 games, and the Rams are averaging 35.7ppg. The Rams offense has produced 40 points twice in three games, and to give that some perspective, they managed 40 just 3 times since December of 2006. The Rams are 2-1, and this is their biggest game in quite some time, as a win legitimizes them as a playoff contender. Dallas has not looked the same this season, and they have a lot of new parts in the secondary, that I think Goff will be able to exploit. This is another match up situation that has produced a 66-28 ATS totals indicator, and it has me backing the over.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 2-0, and despite ranking 12th in the league with 23.5ppg, the offense has not moved the ball nearly as expected. I expect the Steelers to try and establish a running game here, as they have not run the ball well at all. Chicago is a run first team, and have a very good offensive line, but last week they turned the ball over 4 times, and got way behind early and were forced to pass, and that is not their game. Overall scoring is considerably down in the NFL this season, and neither of these offenses has shown much through a pair of games. I think this game is going to feature a lot more running than the total seems to indicate, and will play the under.

This game fits a situation that has a 26-0 ATS record, and the play is on the over. I live in Florida, just got my power back on, so no write ups this week.

This game fits a situation that has a 57-21 ATS mark, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation that has a 57-21 ATS mark, and the play is on the under.

NE/NO  OVER   55   -110 (teams off a MNF game vs an opponent off a Thursday game are 24-5-1 to the over, including 12-1 if the total is 45 or more.

The Houston Texans were completely out-played in their early season game vs New England. They were dominated 27-0, never even getting on the scoreboard. There have only been 3 NFL teams in the last dozen years that were shutout in a game earlier in the season, and all 3 of them lost, and none of them covered. Houston has a very limited offense, but a very strong defense. They also don`t allow a lot of plays as they play very slow on offense. The defense ranked #1 this year limiting opponents to 59.9 plays a game. They finished #3 allowing 4.9 yards per play, #2 in opponents passing yards per attempt at 5.9 and allowed fewer passing 1st downs than any team in the league. New England has averaged 30ppg since Brady came back, but I don`t think they get to 30 here, and teams that were shutout in an earlier game have not scored more than 14 points the next game, and Houston may struggle to even get to 14. looks like a low scoring affair here in New England, make the play on the under.

The Oakland Raiders were a potent offensive team behind QB Derek Carr, but his injury has many believing this offense is no longer what it was. Last game against Denver, the Raiders struggled, and managed just 6 points. Most of that was with Matt McGloin who was 6-11 for a woeful 21 yards, or less than 2 yards per attempt, as he was clearly over-matched by the Denver defense. McGolin was injured, and 3rd string QB Connor Cook took over. Cook proceeded to go 14-21 for 150 yards at 7.3 yards per attempt. Those are very good numbers, with a limited playbook at his disposal. Aaron Rodgers is averaging 7.3 yards per attempt this season. While Cook is not Aaron Rodgers, he will have much more of the playbook to work with, had reps all week with the offense, and I think he will move the ball here. Brock Osweiler has made 19 home starts in his career and averaged 28.2ppg in those starts. He has 6 career starts vs Oakland and has averaged 31.2ppg. Make the play on the over.

If Washington makes the playoffs, it won't have a lot to do with defense. Carolina, one of the best defensive teams in the league a year ago, has slipped in a big way. Both these teams can move the ball, and will get little resistance. The Panthers are 24-5-1 to the over in their last 30 games as a dog from 3.5 to 10 points, most occurring with Cam Newton under center. (11-1 over if the total is 47+). They are also 20-3 to the over on the road to the same +3.5 to 10 line last 23, including 15-0 to the over from +7.5 to +12.5. Kirk Cousins is 28-13 to the over in his last 41 starts, including 16-6 to the over with a total from 47-54. Make the play on the over.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have lost and failed to cover in 3 straight games. That has happened just 7 times since 1996, so this team at 4-4 is appearing to be in trouble. Dallas is clicking on all cylinders right now, and have been the best team in the NFL, with a balanced attack. There is roughly 100 yards a game from the line of scrimmage between these teams, in favor of Dallas, and the usually reliable Steeler defense has been below the league average on the season. Dallas has out-gained each of their last 6 opponents, and the only thing keeping the line down here is it is the Steelers. Dallas is 6-1 ATS in the last 3 years as road chalk, and simply are a much better team. Make the play on Dallas.

The Jacksonville Jaguars were supposed to turn the corner this season, but at 2-6, the Jags have not gotten off to the start they would have hoped for. QB Blake Bortles appeared to be heading for stardom, after throwing 35 TD passes a year ago, but has just 14 this season. The INT's at 18 last year needed to be cleaned up, but they haven't, as he has 10 already. The Jags are scoring 4.4ppg less than a year ago. Houston has had a solid defense for several years, and the feeling was Brock Osweiler was going to put them over the top offensively. That has not come close to happening with Houston averaging 17.1ppg. neither of these teams can sustain drives, neither throw the ball well. This one is coming down to field position, with limited offensive potential. Make the play on the under.

the Seattle Seahawks can be nasty on defense, and they will be tested by a strong Bill's ground game, that should have LeSean McCoy back for this one. Russell Wilson has had a a lot of injury issues this season, but appears to be heeling, and pete Carroll called out the offense this week, to get things going. I think you may see a more mobile Wilson, and some downfield passes to open up the offense tonight. The Seattle defense has allowed over 360 yards to their opponents in each of the last 3 games, and that is the first time that has occurred since December 6, 2009. Monday Night inter conference games that have a winning road team against a .500 or less home team, have seen the total go 9-0 to the over in the last 9, all the waay back to 1990. Make the play on the over.

The Indianapolis Colts offense has generated 20 points or more in all 5 of their games, but the defense has allowed 22 or more, and last week coughed up over 500 yards to a pedestrian Bears offense. The problem here is the Colts, while scoring at a decent clip, have an average offense from the line of scrimmage, that will be tested by a Houston back 7 that has been significantly above average on the season. Since most of the Indianapolis offense comes in the air, as they have yet to rush for 100 yards in a game this season, Houston will be ready for the passing game. No team has generated more than 351 yards on the Houston defense this season, and just 1 team has gotten 200+ yards on their secondary. The problem for Houston is sustaining drives, and their lackluster passing attack, isn't good enough to take advantage of a weak Colts secondary. Andrew Luck has certainly taken care of business at home in his career, but as a road dog he is just 7-13 ATS with a passer rating of a woeful 68.1, with 27 TD's and 33 INT's, generating just 18.6ppg. This game also fits a super total situation, one that has generated a mark of 41-107 O/U, and I'm not going to buck that. Make the play on the under.

The idea behind sports betting is to find where the bias is. Bias comes in many forms, but for addressing the card today we have a long term total bias situation in play here. Whenever you have two teams playing, that have played more overs than unders in the regular season, we have a totals bias to the over. This does not work the other way around, with 2 under teams, simply because the public has an innate tendency to bet over. Now if we capture, and handicap the totals, avoiding extremes, we have the following: Play under in any NFL regular season game when both teams have each played more games resulting in over the total, than under the total, if the total is in line with mainstream NFL totals, not extremes (greater than 37 and less than 53). The result is:

263-360-10 O/U or 57.8% playing under. Make the play on the under in this contest.

The San Francisco 49ers opened the season with a shutout win, and just when you may have thought the Niner defense was back, they go and allow 83 points in their next 2 games. It has certainly made this total appear very achievable, and has drawn the attention of bettors, who love to bet over the total. That being said, the total has actually dropped half a point from the opener. This presents a very NFL worthy contrarian play. It may not be the Niner defense that has problems here, but the offense is brutally bad. Blaine Gabbert in his career is 5-14 O/U at home, generating just 14.2ppg. His 68.6 passer rating on the season says the Niners points are going to trend down, not up. perhaps the biggest factor here expresses the history of such contrarian situations. Home teams that have allowed 35 or more points in each of their last 2 games, with the total points allowed in the 2 games topping 80, and playing to a total from 35 to 48.5, and their opponents last opponent scored more than 10 points, are 1-25 O/U since 1980. The last 20 in this situation have all fallen shy of the total by an average of 12.25ppg. Lots of value, on an NFL worthy contrarian situation. Make the play on the under.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay offense has been so good for so long, it is expected they play high scoring games. The Pack put up a stunning 38.2ppg at home in 2014, but without Jordy Nelson (or so most thought), those numbers eroded to 23.2ppg. Unless your telling me Jordy Nelson is worth 15ppg, then something else is wrong. The Pack was 1-7 O/U at home a year ago. I'll tell you what is wrong. Aaron Rodgers has suddenly lost his mojo. Last year, it wasn't just Nelson being out, he so many times missed passes your used to seeing him convert with his eyes closed. This year, it has been worse. The 6.1 yards per attempt a year ago is down to 5.4 yards per attempt, Nelson included. Sunday night he over threw at least 3 times, and on a little dink pass to Lacey, he threw it into the ground. No one is saying anything, because after all, he is Aaron Rodgers, but is he anymore? The last 18 games says he is not, the posted total says he is. Detroit broke a 23 game losing streak at Lambeau last year, holding the sputtering Green Bay offense to just 3 points through 3 quarters in an 18-16 win. Most will consider Rodgers having had a great day, 35-61 for 333 yards and a pair of TD's, but look closer, just 5.46 yards per attempt. Those are bottom of the league numbers. This game fits a situation that is based in part by division road dogs in a scenario that has been an electric under producer at 117-206-2 O/U 36.2% over, so the under has been 63.8% on 325 games, close tyo a z-score of 5! A situation with nearly a 5 z-score on 325 games is off the charts! Make the play on the under.

This should be an interesting battle, especially if you remember Josh Norman going at it with O'Dell Beckham last year, when Norman was in Carolina. Norman severely got in Beckham's head, as Carolina was up 35-7. and Beckham caught his first ball with 5:19 left in the third. Carolina, and Norman slacked off, and the Giants eventually caught Carolina, but ended up with the loss. Coach Gruden has stated he may line up Norman across from Beckham on every down. The Giants offense is generating just 5.9 yards a play to defenses that have allowed 6.6, but the defense is allowing just 4.7 to teams averaging 5.9. Washington has been a half yard better than their opponents on offense, but -0.9 yards worse per play on defense. What I see is a good Washington offense, not good enough to overcome an even better NY defense, and a sub par NY offense, with their top weapon being taken away, not good enough to overcome the poor Washington defense. There is a bigger factor here historically as division games bring out defensive intensity, and division home favorites are 883-960-32 O/U since 1989, 52.1% under. When the total is greater than 38 it goes to 571-684-21 O/U or 54.5% under, and in fact when the total is above average, at 45 or more it goes to 105-150-1 O/U, or 58.8% to the under. I have a tremendous situation, one of my top total situations, applicable here which is 39-107-2 O/U or 73.3% to the under and an off the charts z-score of 5.59! Moreover, Eli Manning is 8-15 O/U for his career vs Washington, completing just 58.2% of his passes, with the games averaging less than 40 points. Kirk Cousins owns a career passer rating of 60.5 vs the G-men, and just 15ppg, and the 4 games have seen the G-men pick him off 8 times. Not a lot of love for the offenses here, to a high total. Make the play on the under.

The Green Bay Packers escaped Jacksonville with a 28-24 victory to open the season. Minnesota was led by their defense in a 25-16 win at Tennessee. The Packers offense sputtered last season without Jordy Nelson, and Randall Cobb suffered the most. It also had an impact on Aaron Rodgers who was facing a lot of heat, and an average corp of receivers that simply could not get open. It was his worst year in a Packer uniform. Many see the packers getting back to normal with Nelson back on the field, but in the early going he is limited in the amount of plays he is on the field for. The 28 points in game one are going to leave the impression that the Green Bay offense is back, but the truth is, it sputtered against, at best a mediocre Jacksonville defense. Rodgers threw for a pedestrian 199 yards on 34 attempts, for 5.85 yards per attempt, worse than last year. Eddie Lacey and the Packer ground game managed just 3.8 yards per carry. While the points were there, the offense was arguably, worse than a year ago, and that will show vs a stout Minnesota defense. Zimmer said he will not name his starting QB until Sunday, and be it Shaun Hill, or Sam Bradford, the Minnesota offense lacks play makers, unlike the defense, which is loaded with them. Adrien Peterson looked like a shell of his former self, Since the start of the 2013 season, Peterson has averaged 4.4 yards a carry, a number below any of his season's average prior to that. The Vikings offense did not find the end-zone all game vs the Titans, as both scores came by the defense. Blair Walsh attempted 6 FG's in game 1, and history tells us, that a team playing at home, that attempted 5 or more FG's in their last game, does not solve their offensive woes the next week, resulting in a 37-74-4 O/U situation, or a 67% success rate on the under. The game analysis, with historic situational support, positions this game to have significant value taking a position on the UNDER.

The Miami Dolphins have not had a coach that compiled a winning record since Dave Wannstedt (2000-04), and they have turned the reigns over to Adam Gase. Gase was given a 5 year contract, so it appears there will be some patience here, and their better be, as the Dolphins are poised to finish last in the AFC East. Last year was supposed to be big for QB Ryan Tannehill, but things were no different from 2014, except his completion percentage dropped. The result was a 4,000+ yard season, but just 19.1ppg. One issue has been the fact that his last 64 starts have seen him sacked 184 times. The running game is in flux, and I think the Dolphin's offense is going to be more troubling than even last year. They went from 14th to 26th in yards last year, and from 11 to 27 in points. Since the start of the 2007 season, the road has not been friendly for the Dolphins offense, at 17.7ppg, and that has led to a mark of 27-45 O/U, in 72 games, 62.5% under. Seattle is 31-6 SU in their last 37 at home, allowing 15.7ppg. They have led the league in fewest points allowed 4 straight years, and I expect no drop off this season. Biggest problem for this team s on the other side of the ball. The Seahawks won the Super Bowl in 2014, and in a short period of time, have 0 offensive lineman left from that team, and will rely on a couple rookies this season. They no longer have Lynch to romp for big chunks f yardage, and Rawls is coming back from a broken ankle, and a reduced offensive line. While Seattle has allowed 13 points or less in half of their last 14 home games, they have managed 30+ in just 4 of their last 14. If you do the math, the numbers don't add up, especially when the opponent is weak offensively. Seattle allows 12.5ppg when listed as a home favorite of 10 or more. That drops to a ridiculous 5.7ppg if it is prior to week 5, when injuries, fatigue, bumps, etc. have not kicked in yet. If this game is going to reach the total, the Seattle offense is going to have to score big, but they have not topped 31 points as a 10 or more point home favorite in their last 9, which was late in the 2013 season. Make the play on the under.

The Minnesota Vikings may have the advantage with the weather in this game, as game time temperatures are projected to be around 0, with a wind chill of -15 to -20. That will put this game into the top 10 coldest games in NFL history. That being the case it calls us upon looking at the top 15 coldest games in NFL history, and the available data I have researched:

12 degrees  HOU at CHI     Chi  -1   34      FINAL:   Hou  24   Chi   5    ROAD AND UNDER
9   degrees  CHI   at MN      ??          ??      FINAL:   Minn 16  Chi  13     ?????????????

5   degrees  SF    at  GB      SF   -3   46.5   FINAL:   SF    23    GB  20  PUSH AND UNDER
4   degrees  WASH  CHI     CHI -4.5 38     FINAL:  WASH 21 CHI 17  ROAD AND PUSH
4   degrees  TN   at  NE      NE   -6    34     FINAL:  NE   17     TN  14  ROAD AND UNDER
2   degrees  DET at GB      GB   +3   36     FINAL:  DET 24     GB  17  ROAD AND OVER
0   degrees  LAR at BUF   BUF  -7   33.5  FINAL:   BUFF 29  LAR 23  ROAD AND OVER
0   degrees  LAR at GB     GB   -3    32.5  FINAL:   GB    28   LAR  0   HOME AND UNDER
0   degrees  GB   at  MN    MN  ??    ??     FINAL:   GB    23   MN   7   ROAD AND UNDER
-2  degrees  CHI at  MN     MN  ??   ??     FINAL:    MN   23  CHI   10 HOME AND LIKELY UNDER
-4  degrees  NYG at GB     GB  -7.5 41.5 FINAL:    NYG 23    GB   20 (OT) ROAD AND OVER
-5  degrees  OAK at CLV   CLV -3.5 38    FINAL:    OAK 14   CLV  12  ROAD AND UNDER
-6  degrees  IND  at  KC     KC   -8  41.5  FINAL:    IND  10    KC     7  ROAD AND UNDER
-9  degrees   SD   AT CN   CN  -4.5 45     FINAL:    CN   27    SD     10 HOME AND UNDER
-13 degrees  DAL at  GB    GB ??    ??     FINAL      GB   21   DAL   17   ?????????????
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Perhaps the biggest surprise is the success of the road teams, and not so much of a surprise is the under dominance. There have been just 515 total points scored in the 15 games and that is an average of just 34.3ppg. It is also noted, that in the NFL's coldest games, no team has ever scored as many as 30 points! The loser also has scored 20 points or less in all but 1 game, and 17 or less 80% of the time! Make the play on the under.

The Pittsburgh Steelers almost blew their chances at making the playoffs in week 16 with a loss to Baltimore, but got things right in their finale beating up on Cleveland 28-12. That coupled with the Jet's meltdown in Buffalo allowed them to make it as a wild card. They will take on the division winning Cincinnati Bengals. Both these teams are top offensively, scoring 30 or more points in 7 games each. While they did play a 16-10 game at Pittsburgh, the Steelers did manage nearly 400 yards in the game, and proved they could score against the Bengals defense in Cincinnati scoring 33. The Steelers would be considered an under team over the years with their big defensive teams, but despite that going back to the start of the 2001-02 season, the Steelers are 17-0 to the over if the total is less than 47 (currently 46.5). Those games have seen an average of 51.5 points scored, and an average total of just 39.6, so they have beaten the total by over 12 points per game. Make the play on the over.

The Carolina Panthers learned just how hard it is to run the table in this league. they made it unbeaten into week 16, but thoughts of a perfect season were washed away by Atlanta. If that were not bad enough, the Panthers could still end up not having home field advantage throughout the playoffs if they lose their finale, and Arizona wins. The Bucs have a bit of incentive themselves, beyond taking down a 14-1 team. Tampa Bay with a loss will become the first NFL team since the merger, to finish last in their division 5 straight years, and they would like to strike that news from the records. Carolina had scored 33 or more points in 5 straight games, before just 13 vs a weak Atlanta defense, and the loss may have this team playing very flat, and another offensive meltdown may ensue. This game fits a very strong under situation that is 202-116 ATS, make the play on the under.

The Seattle Seahawks are all about defense, and they will face the ultimate challenge in the desert, going against the best offense in the NFL this year, in the Arizona Cardinals. The Cards are tough in the desert, but have not been tough enough for Seattle who has won each of the last 2 meetings here. Seattle, after a slow start has regained some of their swagger on the defensive side of the ball. They are allowing 12.3ppg over their last 4 on just 216 total yards a game by their opponents. Seattle has won 3 straight on the road, and got some good news this week, as Marshawn Lynch is expected to play, and that could add some ball control for the Seahawks, and a closer in a tight game. Seattle is in a different place defensively, than they were in the 39-32 shootout in the season's first matchup with the Cards. This game fits a strong under situation, one that has delivered a 202-116 ATS record. Make the play on the under.

The New Orleans Saints are not destined for the playoffs for the 2nd straight year, and that could spell the dismissal of Sean Peyton. The Saints have a lot of news circulating about the future of many of their top players, including QB Drew Brees, and many are likely not to be here next year. Atlanta looked impressive in a 5-0 start, but the offense crashed and burned, and never found its way back. The Falcons averaged 32.4ppg in their first 5, but since just a meager 16ppg. That has left the Falcons at 12-2-1 to the under for the season, and their games have averaged just 37 points total over the last 10 weeks where they are 9-0-1 to the under. Drew Brees is hurting, the game means nothing, and I see a fast played game, with both teams trying to exit the season without any additional injuries. This game fits a 202-116 ATS under situation. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 133-71 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 77-36 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a situation which is 27-0 ATS, and the play is on the under.

There are not many situations I play on the blind, but this one has been perfect for so long, I'm riding it out. The Philadelphia Eagles are 27-0 ATS in their last 27 games to the over, after a game in which they scored less than 23 points as an under dog. The average points scored in these games has been 55.5, and have beaten the total by an average of 10.78 points per game. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a situation that is 47-27 ATS and the play is on the under.

I want to rewind the clock back to the 2013 NFL season. Many may remember what a rage playing the OVER was in NFL non-conference games. The strongest area during that 2013 season was playing a non-conference game to go over when the home team was posted at less than -3. fast forward to 2015 and those same games, are now 20-3 to the UNDER in 2015! What goes around comes around, you might say. (including 10 straight games going under). We have a pair of inept offenses, squaring off vs a pair of inept defenses. The Giants defense has allowed 420 yards a game, but only 1 team through 12 games has scored more than 27 points against them. The offense has been limited to 20ppg as well over their last 3. Miami's struggling offense has scored 20 points or less in 6 straight games. They have only managed to run an average of 55 plays a game in the 6 games. This total is way over done, as Miami going all the way back to 1989 has only played 12 of their 215 home games over the period to a higher total, and just 1 of their last 23. The Giants last 18 games on grass has seen both teams total just 39.6ppg. Make the play on the under.

The New England Patriots have certainly struggled offensively of late, due to a lot of key injuries. They have also struggled playing on grass. They have played on grass 11 times, since September 10, 2012, and they are averaging a not so Patriot-like 21.6ppg. That compares to 32.6ppg over the same period on artificial turf. Houston has held 4 of their last 5 opponents to 17 points or less, and are allowing just 13ppg in their last 5 at home. Think the mere mention of Tom Brady and the Patriots has this total beyond where it should be, and right now the New England offense isn't in peak form, nor does it have all its weapons. They also have a history of not scoring much on grass. Make the play on the under.

Johnny Manziel's NFL start has been a rocky one, and he has already worn out his welcome in Cleveland. That being said, he will get the start on Sunday, and it is likely more of a move to showcase him for a trade at some point, or a final shot at an NFL career, that so far has gone bad on and off the field. The Browns are 2-10 and have failed to make the playoffs for a 12th straight year, and their last 4 games will feature a lot of auditions for some young players on the roster. If that doesn't warrant trouble for Manziel the fact that Travis Benjamin and Andrew Hawkins both may miss, or at best not close to 100%, an offense that can't move the ball will be further hampered. QB Blaine Gabbert has been an upgrade to Colin Kaepernick, but don't be fooled by the 26 points last week vs Chicago, as they generated just 273 total yards, and the Niners are averaging just 13ppg in their last 6. Make the play on the under.

When the Philadelphia Eagles signed DeMarco Murray and Ryan Mathews it appeared they were going to have a very potent offense, and a punishing running game, to compliment their fast style of play, and air assault. Buffalo ended up with LeSean McCoy who has been good, but not great. The Eagles offensive woes were well hidden, as they generated just 248 yards vs New England last week, but got 3 TD's without the offense on the field. It was the 2nd consecutive week they generated less than 250 total yards. Philadelphia has allowed 118 points in their last 3 games, and that tends to focus the practice week, and put an emphasis on defense, as NFL teams that have allowed 100 or more points in 3 straight weeks, are 129-164 O/U, so the under is 56% on the blind. Watch what happens however when that 3 game total reaches greater than 110 points allowed in 3 straight games. It is 30-58-2 O/U or the under is 65.9%! Make the play on the under.

The St. Louis offense has been the worst in the league, allowing opponents to key on Todd Gurley, and the entire Ram offense has not gained 100 yards in a game in their last 4, after dominating on the ground. The Detroit defense has not allowed more than 372 yards to any team over the last 5 games. That puts them in rare company, as just 2 other NFL teams have done so.

Quote by Fisher:

 Rams coach Jeff Fisher said he was `almost out of answers` in trying to fix the team`s offensive woes.

 I`m not a fan of Boras, if you follow his career starting at Benedictine Univ. in 1998 (head coach 3-7), and to DePauw, Texas, UNLV,bears, Jags...et al, he is a loser! Fisher is done, his 4 years in St. Louis have seen regression every year in the win column. The defense has been on the field so much, it isn`t holding up anymore. (8 TD`s first 7 games, and 11 in last 4). This game fits a totals situation which is 110-75 and the play is on the under.

One of the things I like to do handicapping totals, is look at division games closely, as they tend to play with a lot more intensity and division games on their own, no other condition. That is shown by the fact that the last 2800 division games in the NFL are 52% to the under, a slight bias. If we just look at the 1850 games where there is a home favorite involved it becomes blindly profitable, at 52.5% winners on the under. There has never been a 12-0 team that generates less yards per play than the average allowed by the schedule of opponents they play. Such is the case of Carolina 5.5 v teams allowing 5.8. They have tremendously over-achieved their stats, but that does not last forever. Atlanta, much like Green Bay, opened the season 5-0 averaging 32.4ppg. They have since averaged 16.7ppg, while the defense has gotten markedly better, despite more time on the field at 20.7ppg. Carolina has allowed just 5 yards a play, and has been the best against the pass. This game fits a situation that is 158-86, and the play is on the under.

One of the things I like to do handicapping totals, is look at division games closely, as they tend to play with a lot more intensity and division games on their own, no other condition. That is shown by the fact that the last 2800 division games in the NFL are 52% to the under, a slight bias. If we just look at the 1850 games where there is a home favorite involved it becomes blindly profitable, at 52.5% winners on the under. The Chiefs have gone from 1-5 to 7-5 with 6 straight wins allowing just 16.2ppg. San Diego is a one-dimensional offense, that has not run for 100 yards since week 2. Teams playing after failing to run the ball for 100 yards in 9 straight games have seen the total points in their games equal 38.3, and the under covers 60% of the time, with 11 of the last 14 going under as well, with those games generating an even less 35.1 total points. This game fits a very strong under situation which is 158-86 as well. Make the play on the under.

One of the things I like to do handicapping totals, is look at division games closely, as they tend to play with a lot more intensity and division games on their own, no other condition. That is shown by the fact that the last 2800 division games in the NFL are 52% to the under, a slight bias. If we just look at the 1850 games where there is a home favorite involved it becomes blindly profitable, at 52.5% winners on the under. The next thing to do is look at the total posted and see 50. I like to see similar games in the range of 4 points on each side of that, and NFL division games with a total of 46-54 have seen the under go 55.7% to the under on about 300 games. That becomes 56.6% when 2 winning teams are involved. I also have a situation which is very strong at 86-158 O/U. Make the play on the under.

The New England Patriots are off their first loss of the season, and will take on the struggling Philadelphia Eagles at home, in a Sunday Nighter at New England. The Patriots offense has always been great with the Brady/Belichick combination. They have lost a lot of receivers to injury, but Belichick has proven, it is next man up in his system, and don't be surprised if an unheard of entity has a big game. The Pats since the start of the 2010 season, have averaged 33.1ppg after a loss. There is one glaring stat however, that pertains to Philadelphia for this game. The last 26 times they have taken the field after losing as a dog, and they scored less than 23 points, they are 26-0 to the over, beating the total by 10.67ppg. Make the play on the over.

The Houston Texans, like the Kansas City Chiefs were left for dead, with horrible starts. They have both rebounded, and Houston has run the streak to 4 straight, with 4 straight covers, and moved to 6-5 on the season. The defense appears to be the catalyst, as they have allowed 35 points in their last 4 games. Most will view this as a reason to give the under a look, after all Houston just kept New Orleans out of the end-zone for the first time since X-Mas Eve 2005, and no one seems to be able to score on them. here is the trouble with that logic. The total is now pushed so far down, the value is the other way, and so is history. Houston is still a team that is allowing over 20ppg, despite the 4 game stout defensive efforts. teams that have allowed less than 10 points total in their last 4 games, but on the season allow more than 18.2ppg, are 15-4 to the over in their next game, with the opponent scoring just about 23ppg. (24.6ppg on the road and 8-2 to the over, allowing 20 or more points in 9 straight games!)Bills home games are producing over 50ppg this season. Make the play on the over.

This game fits a pair of extremely strong totals situations, one that is 198-113, and the other 157-85. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 56-21 ATS, make the play on the under.

Division games tend to play a lot more intensely than other games, and lower scoring games are more probable, as both teams certainly see each other more frequently there are few surprises, and on a short week, less opportunity to create any new things. Thursday Night division games when their is a home favorite and a low to modest total of 36.5 to 44 have gone 27-10 to the under. 916-5 if a competitive game with a line of less than -6), and 3-0 if both teams are less than .400. Make the play on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 55-21 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 148-107 ATS, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which is 148-107 ATS, and the play is on the under.

NFL division games have long been considered the 6 most important games on the schedule, after all, winning the division is an automatic entry into the playoffs, and if you win the vast majority of the division games, a team does not have to worry about tie breakers. The toughest of those division games occur when division teams collide on Thursday, without the benefit of a full week to prepare, r add many new wrinkles. These are teams that see each other twice a year, and are all too familiar with each other, and typically when we have enough defense around to keep the total on the low to moderate side, we end up with a defensive struggle.  Today in the newsletter we will illustrate an example of those forces at work with the following parameters:

1)  Thursday division home favorite

2)  Total is greater than 36 and less than 44.5

These Thursday Night division games have played:

10-27 O/U

BUT....

If these teams are meeting from game 9 on we get:

3-18 O/U

Tonight, make the play on the NY Jets and Buffalo Bills on the under.

The Chicago Bears and the San Diego Chargers are both in need of a win. The Chargers 2-6 record may already be saying it is too late, and the Bears at 2-5, are desperate to avoid being 2-6 themselves. The Bears have been a great team in inter-conference games, sporting the best record of any NFC team, and when it comes to facing the AFC West they are 20-8-2 ATS. Their 2 wins this season, you guessed it, have come as an under dog of 3 points vs the Raiders, and 9 points vs the Chiefs. The Bears have lost 3 games this season by more than 4 points, but those were to Green Bay, Seattle, and Arizona, not anything like what they will face here. Phil Rivers continues to have success, but his team doesn't, as the Chargers have lost 4 straight games. His offensive line is in shambles, he has no running game, and while effectively moving the ball between the 20s, the points and yards don't add up. he now has to go without Keynan Allen who caught 77 balls for 783 yards and 4 TD's a year ago, and already had 67 for 725 and 4 TD through 7.5 games this year. The Bears go without Matt Forte, but Jeremy Langford was effective vs a stout Minnesota defense last week after the Forte injury, with 46 yards on 12 attempts, and vs a horrific Charger's run stop unit, he could have a breakout game. The Bears in their last 30 games vs the AFC West have seen an average of just 34.4ppg scored by both teams, and have been 21-9 to the under. Just 2 of the 30 games have topped 45 total points by both teams, and none of the 15 that have been played on the road. The fact is the 15 games have averaged just 31.7ppg, the lowest amount of points between any 2 teams in either league in 15 games at a non-conference opponent's site. Make the play on the under.

This is an interesting matchup pitting Adrien Peterson vs Todd Gurley. One considered the best RB in the NFL, the other a rookie, ready to be that guy. The Rams have changed offensively since Gurley came back and started in the backfield. They went from a team running the ball 39.1% of the time to a team running 56.1% of the time. Minnesota runs the ball a lot at home, as 63.2% of their plays at home have been running plays. This could be a very short game, with below average total plays. Vikings have been stout all season on defense and allow just 13.3ppg at home, while the Rams, over their last 67 road games have averaged a woeful 14.3ppg, and it has not gotten any better this year at 14.7ppg. St. Louis is 43-23-1 to the under in those 67 road games, including 23-5 to the under to a low total of less than 42.5, and if they are less than a 13 point favorite, that goes to 22-3 to the under. Make the play on the under.

This game applies to a totals situation which is 196-113, and the play is on the under.

This game fits a totals situation which has gone 196-113-2 the last 26 years, the play in this game is on the under.