10* ANNIHILATOR on Kent State. Kent State is horrible. It’s 2-8 (lost 48-20 to WMU in its latest action.) The only thing that the Golden Flashes have to play for today is pride. Central Michigan is decent, it’s 6-5. The Chips became bowl eligible in last week’s 42-30 win at EMU last week and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. Kent State was blown out by WMU last weekend, but it will look to take advantage of a content Chips’ team and try to score the upset in its final home game of the year (at Akron next week.) I’ll point out, that while the Golden Flashes once again struggled offensively last week, the defense was in fact pretty decent, allowing 389 yards and limiting the Broncos to 3 of 15 on third downs (note that four of WMU’s TD’s were defensive.) Grab as many points as you can as Kent State delivers the solid cover with this ample spread.

10* ANNIHILATOR on Miami Dolphins. Carolina and Cam Newton in particular are both known for having “letdowns.” Other than two years ago when the Panthers made it to the Super Bowl, Netwon’s career in the NFL has showcased a ton of talent, but the lack of motivation to get over the hump at times. With their bye-week on deck, followed by two tough road games at the Jets and New Orleans, followed by home games against Minnesota, Green Bay, Tampa Bay and finishing off at Atlanta, there’s no question that this sets up as a letdown/look-ahead spot for the home side. Miami QB Jay Cutler returned in last week’s loss to Oakland and looked brilliant, going 32 of 42 for 311 yards, three TD’s and no picks. The Fish only rank 31st in the league in total yards per game with 270.2, but the defense has been a strength, allowing only 315.4. The Panthers ranks 21st in total yards with 313.1 YPG, while ranked first in total yards allowed with 274.1. Carolina gets caught flat-footed and Cutler keeps his team competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

10* GAME  OF THE WEEK on Seattle Seahawks. The Seahawks are coming off a humbling 17-14 loss at home against the Redskins and will be eager to get back into the winners column after giving up the go-ahead TD with under a minute left to go in that one. The Cards mustered enough to beat the hapless 49ers 20-10 on the road last week with Drew Stanton under center, but clearly he’s going to have his hands full with Seattle’s top notched defensive unit. Seahawks’ kicker Blair Walsh uncharacteristically missed three FG’s in the first half from inside the 50 last week. The Hawks also uncharacteristically commited 16 penalties for 138 yards. QB Russell Wilson finished 24 of 45 for 297 yards, two TD’s and two picks. Overall Seattle ranks fourth in total offense with 378.6 YPG, while ranked 13th on the defensive side in allowing 322.5. Arizona averages 337.5 YPG and allows 349.8. Last week Arizona RB Adrian Peterson rushed 37 times for 159 yards. The defense was decent, but it did allow CJ Beathard to throw for 294 yards, while Stanton finished with 201 yards, two TD’s and a pick. The Seahawks have issues, there’s no question about it. On their offensive line, at RB and now with Earl Thomas gone from the secondary. But Seattle does have a Top 10 QB in Wilson. Stanton looked decent last Sunday, but I believe he takes a step back on the short week. Seahawks roll.

10* ROAST on Pittsburgh. UNC is 1-8 and has nothing to play for. Playing “spoiler” can only motivate a team so far and I don’t think the Tar Heels are going to muster enough of it to compete with the Panthers, who still seek one last win to become bowl eligible. UNC most recently fell 24-19 to No. 8 Miami last week. Tar Heels’ No. 1 QE Chazz Suratt was injured early and backup Nathan Elliot threw one TD and three picks in his place. The Panthers enter on the other end of the spectrum as they are off a 31-14 victory over Virginia. QB Ben DiNucci had an unspectacular 134 yards, but Pittsburgh looked great defensively and on special teams, as Quadree Anderson returned a 75-yard punt for a TD. The best thing you can say about Tar Heel football this year is that basketball season is just around the corner. I expect UNC to throw in the white towel early in this one. Panthers roll.

10* BLOWOUT on Miami Ohio. Akron needs just one more win to become bowl eligible (5-4), but Miami will need to run the table if it has any shot at a bowl berth. The Zips enter off a 21-20 win over Buffalo, while the Redhawks fell to Ohio 45-28 on Halloween. Note that this is a revenge game for Miami Ohio after it lost 35-13 at Akron last year. Akron is averaging just 331.1 YPG and allowing 444.2. The Zips lost one of their leading playmakers in Warren Ball early in October, but have still managed to find ways to win lately. But I think that changes this weekend. The Redhawks average 392.8 YPG and allows 365.9. QB Billy Bhal was 28 of 51 for 350 yards, three TD’s and two picks last week and I think he’ll have his chances today against this suspect Akron secondary. Both teams need a win, however I think the pressure is on Akron here as it gets caught looking ahead to its game against conference leading Ohio at home next week. Lay the points.

10* GAME OF YEAR on Tampa Bay Buccaneers. If you’ve followed me for any length of time then you know that I consider myself one of the best in locating teams which are more “motivated” than their opponents. Divisional contests are always emotional and mean a lot to both sides for obvious reasons, but in this case I simply feel that the Saints are going to be caught complacent here after five straight victories. This is essentially a “do-or-die” for the 2-5 Bucs as well, who would then officially be looking ahead to next season with a loss today. Tampa isn’t going to roll over. Besides, New Orleans’ last two victories have been less than impressive, winning in Green Bay against Brent Hundley, before then having to hold on for a 20-12 win over Mitch Trubisky and the Bears last weekend. Tampa simply couldn’t get anything going against the Panthers in last Sunday’s 17-3 home loss. QB Jameis Winston had an uncharacterstically difficult time, finishing 21 of 38 for 210 yards, zero TD’s and two INT’s. WR Mike Evans though was decent with 60 yards on five catches and he should be able to have a much more productive day against the Saints’ secondary. Clearly it won’t be easy in facing Drew Brees. Note though that the veteran has been showing some signs of slowing down already as he was just 23 of 28 for 299 yards and no TD’s last week. Note the Brees struggled in two games against Tampa as well last year, posting a 1:3 TD:INT. As I mentioned off the top, I believe that Tampa is the much more motivated side and I expect it to play like it this afternoon. Winston hasn’t forgotten how to play football and he still has plenty of weapons to utilize. The Saints are one of the hottest teams in the league right now, but if looked at a little closer, it appears as if New Orleans is getting the job done with smoke and mirrors. Should be a nail-biter, I’m grabbing the points.

10* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Hawaii. A couple of desperate 3-5 teams from the Mountain West collide on Saturday night. Hawaii has lost five of its last six, most recently falling 28-7 at home to SDSU last Saturday. UNLV looks set for a letdown here though after its 26-16 upset win over Fresno State on the road last Saturday. Hawaii holds the all time series lead 12-10, but UNLV has taken two straight, including a nail-biting 41-38 road win last October. Hawaii was unable to contain SDSU’s Rashaad Penny, who had a huge game last weekend. Overall Hawaii ranks 89th in scoring with 25.1 PPG, while ranked 107th in scoring defense in allowing 34.6. Warriors’ QB Dru Brown has 1,976 passing yards and a 13:7 TD:INT. UNLV averages 30 PPG and allows 33.6. Rebels’ QB Armani Rodgers is a poor 1,063 yards with a 5:4 TD:INT (does have 535 rushing yards and six scores on the ground.) But after last weekend’s big win over the Bulldogs, a victory which snapped Fresno State’s perfect conference mark, I believe UNLV has a predictable letdown here. I also believe that Brown can match pace with Rodgers down the stretch. Grab the points.

10* FIST-FIGHT on Utah. Both teams are struggling and each is desperate to reach the six-win mark, as both sit with a record of 4-4 currently. The Utes opened the season with four straight victories, but they’ve now dropped four in a row, most recently a 41-20 setback to Oregon. UCLA is just 2-4 in its last six, most recently succumbing 44-23 to Washington. In that game, QB Drew Rosen left in the third frame with an injury and he’s doubtful for this one (if he does manage to suit up, clearly he’s not going to be at 100%.) UCLA owns the worst run defense in the league, giving up an enormous 307.1 YPG this year. Last week the Huskies posted 333. UCLA backup QB Devon Modster was serviceable in Rosen’s replacement, but clearly he’s going to have his hands full today if he’s forced into the start. Utah can empahthize. Last week the Utes gave up 347 yards to the Ducks on the ground. Utah QB Tyler Huntley was 25 of 43 for 293 yards, two TD’s, but was sacked four times. Utah has problems in all three phases, but UCLA is in serious trouble now with the injury to Rosen. I think this is the perfect opponent for Huntley and the Utes to get untracked against. Utah rolls.

10* ROAST on Buffalo Bills. Buffalo is on a mission at 5-2, sitting just a 1/2 game back of first place in the tough AFC East. The Bills just smoked Oakland 34-14 at home last Sunday and I think the team is once again being underestimated in this matchup. Admittedly, the Jets have surprised me this year with their competitiveness, but the team has now dropped three straight and it has to be completely devastated after stumbling 25-20 at home to the Falcons last weekend (after having a late lead.) In the first matchup of the year between the teams, Buffalo pretty much controlled all three phases and came away with the convincing 21-12 victory at home back on September 10th. LeSean McCoy, Tyrod Taylor and the rest of the Bills’ offense have only gotten better since then. McCoy was dominant in last week’s win, posting 151 yards on 27 carries with a score. Josh McCown has been a revalation for the Jets this year, as he has 1,840 passing yards, 12 TD’s (but also seven picks.) Somehow though he’s kept his team competitive despite the Jets owning the 26th ranked defense (361.4 YPG given up) and the 23rd-ranked offense (307.9 YPG.) This is an important divisional matchup, but Buffalo is the correct call here. The Bills are playing with a “chip on their shoulders” right now and it definitely appears as if New York has run out of gas at this point. Buffalo rolls.

I'm playing on BYU (10* BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK). Enough is enough. The Cougars badly need a victory and the Spartans should provide them the perfect opportunity to get one. Since playing a 'neutral' site game (not really!) at the Superdome against LSU, the Cougars' home games have come against Utah, Wisconsin and Boise State. Needless to say, all three of those teams are far stronger than SJ State. The Spartans have lost their four road games by an average score of 47 to 13.7 and they've been outgained in those games by an average of 530.7 yards to 350 yards. The Spartans are just 5-11 ATS (1-15 SU) the past 16 times that they were road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Expect the Cougars to take out their frustrations on Saturday afternoon, bouncing back with a convincing blowout win. 

I'm playing on FLORIDA STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). Obviously, the Seminoles are not having the type of season that they were hoping for. Prior to the season beginning, few would have expected them to have half as many victories as Boston College, at this stage of the season. This should be an excellent spot for the Noles to get back on track though, while showing the ESPN audience that they're not as bad as their record indicates. Note that FSU is 2-0 SU/ATS against the Eagles the past two seasons, winning by a combined score of 59-7. 

While the Noles have thrived as small road favorites over the years, the Eagles have struggled as small home underdogs. Overall, the Eagles are just 5-12 ATS their last 17 home games. Off their loss vs. Louisville, note the Noles are a perfect 7-0 SU the last seven times that they were off a conference loss. Expect them to improve on those stats, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on BALL STATE (10* BEST BET). With all due respect to Toledo, which has admittedly been playing pretty well, I feel that this pointspread is too high. The Rockets, who could easily get caught looking past the Cardinals ahead to Northern Illinois, have yet to win a road game by more than 20 points. Speaking of not winning by more than 20, note that the Rockets were laying -20 (at Toledo) for last year's game but won by 19. The previous season, when the teams played here, the game was decided by 14 points. While Ball State has struggled of late, it has still won two of its three home games. Last week's home loss came on the heels of a bye and after they'd just played three straight on the road. With no travel in between games, for the first time since a 28-13 victory on 9/13, expect the Cards to show some pride, giving their guests a much tougher game than most will be expecting. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Eagles won when these teams played at Washington earlier. I expect a much better effort from the revenge-minded Redskins in Monday's rematch. The Skins are 2-0 SU/ATS here the past couple of seasons, 14-9-2 ATS their last 25 here. While they did fail to cover at KC a couple of weeks ago, the Skins are still a healthy 5-2 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. In fact, they've thrived in that role for years, going 43-25 ATS their last 68. The Skins are also 5-2 ATS their past seven, when playing on the road with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. Meanwhile, during the same span, the Eagles are just 3-5 ATS when playing at home with an O/U line in the same range. Since losing outright at KC, the Eagles have seen three of their last four decided by five or less, two of those decided by a field goal or less. In what could well be another close one, I'm grabbing all the points I can get. 

I'm playing on SDSU (10* GAME OF WEEK). I waited to release this selection, as I was anticipating the line to fall. Now that is has, I'm ready to jump on it. The Bulldogs may have been better than the Aztecs last week but that doesn't mean that they're the better team. Even factoriing in last week's results, the Bulldogs are still just 3-8 SU their last 11 October games. During the same stretch, the Aztecs were 10-2 SU in October games, covering the spread in nine of those 10 victories. While the Aztecs are 14-3 their last 17 at home, the Bulldogs are 2-13 their last 15 on the road. The Aztecs, who are allowing a mere 264.7 yards per game in conference play, have beaten the Bulldogs by 14 each of the past two seasons. They've dominated this conference (18-3 21) and I'm expecting them to bounce back with another double-digit victory on Saturday night. 

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO (10* MAIN EVENT). Its true that the Rams have dominated the Lobos in recent seasons. Its also true that New Mexico is coming off an embarrassing 38-0 loss. Those two facts have helped in providing us with very generous line value on the Lobos on Friday night. Note that CSU was only laying -3 the last time it played here. (That one was close the whole way and finished with a final score of 28-21.) Also, keep in mind that the Rams are playing their fourth road game in their past five, a difficult scheduling situation. Additionally, consider that the Rams only beat Nevada by two points last week, despite being a 24-point favorite. Meanwhile, New Mexico is actually an outstanding 5-1 ATS (6-0 SU!) the last six times it was off a conference loss. The Lobos are 2-1 here at home, the lone loss coming by only two points. Last time here? The Lobos hammered Air Force by a 58-38 margin. Expect them to bounce back with a much better effort, en route to AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON. While Memphis has the higher rating, I believe Houston, 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS its last five on a Thursday, is favored for good reason. Memphis is just 2-8 ATS the past couple of seasons, off a conference win and 3-9 ATS off b2b SU victories. They're just 15-35 ATS their last 50 lined games, in that situation. After losing by four last season, the Cougars have payback on their minds. Expect them to come away with the victory, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on WASHINGTON (10* GAME OF MONTH). This is an extremely tough spot for the 49ers. Not very talented to begin with, the 49ers are off to an 0-5 start. To their credit, they've remained competitive; each of their last four losses have come by three or fewer points. Those type of losses catch up to a team though. Now, off an OT loss vs. the lowly Colts, they're stepping up in class and playing another early game, their third straight on the road. Note that SF is just 1-3 ATS (0-4 SU) its last four as a road underdog in the 7.5 to 10 range. Going back further finds the 49ers at 9-16 ATS (4-21 SU) their last 25 in that role. Meanwhile, the Skins come in refreshed, as they're off a bye. In their last game here, the Skins hammered Oakland by a 27-10 margin. With the schedule in their favor, I'm expecting another double-digit win here. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). With last week's upset of Michigan, the Spartans just won their Super Bowl. Off that massive victory, I feel they're going to have trouble producing the same type of intensity for a road game against the Gophers. That'll prove costly though as Minnesota, which is off back-to-back losses, is going to come in hungry. It should be noted that the Spartans are 0-6 ATS their last six as road favorites. Meanwhile, during the same span, the Gophers are a perfect 4-0 ATS, when coming off consecutive losses. Thats a combined 10-0 ATS; numbers I expect to improve on Saturday.

I'm playing on CAL (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams have been going in opposite directions. The Cougars have won all six of their games while the Bears are off three straight losses. Those results have helped in providing us with an extremely generous line. Keep in mind that two of Cal's three losses came on the road and that the other was against USC. The Bears covered that one, losing by 10. The Cougs are in unchartered territory. They followed up their upset of USC with a road win at Oregon. Off those huge victories, on a short week and playing their second straight road game - the only time this season that they'll play consecutive games outside the state of Washington - I believe this is going to prove to be a tough spot. Give me all those points with the highly motivated home underdog.

I'm playing on CAROLINA (10* MAIN EVENT). Both teams are rolling. The Panthers are off back-to-back highly impressive road wins; the Eagles have won three straight, most recently a blowout of Arizona. I believe that the short week and home field advantage are going to work in the Panthers' favor here though. The Eagles, who have a divsional (Monday Night) showdown vs Washington on deck, are 3-4 ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points, the past couple of seasons. During that span, they're also 3-5 ATS when playing a road game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. The Panthers have no reason to "look ahead," as they've got the Bears on deck. The Panthers have been a "streaky" team in recent seasons. They're 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points; I look for them to improve on those stats Thursday night. 

I'm playing on TEXAS STATE (10* BEST BET). Admittedly, the Bobcats still have a way to go. This is a much improved team from the one which finished 2-10 last season though. The Bobcats are far more experienced than they were last year and they've now got a coach in his second season here. On the other hand, I don't believe that the Cajuns are necessarily as strong as they were last season. Thats not surprising, given that they lost their QB, their top RB and their top WR. Yet, last season, the Cajuns were laying only -5.5. True, that game was at Texas State, while this one is at Lafayette. Still, we're now getting a far more generous line to work with. I don't believe the 2-3 Cajuns have shown they deserve to be laying this high a number. Both their wins came by five points or less. The Cajuns are now 5-9 ATS here the past 2+ seasons. They're also 0-2 ATS the last two times that they were favored in the 10.5 to 21 point range. Give me all the points I can get. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* GAME OF WEEK). At 1-3 for a third consecutive season, it makes sense that the Bears are turning to Mitchell Trubisky. The decision to start the second overall pick certainly makes the game more interesting. That doesn't mean its going to help the Bears win the game though. Trubisky faces a tough task. Playing his first game, in front of the Monday night spotlight, while facing a dangerous division rival. (Even in a loss last week, the Vikings D allowed just 251 total yards.)

Unlike the Bears, who already have to realize the playoffs are an extreme longshot, the Vikes still have hope for their season. That said, already 0-1 within the division and facing GB next week, Minnesota knows it cant afford to slip up here. 

While they lost vs. Detroit last week, the Vikes are 9-2 ATS their last 11, when off a division game. While the loss of Cook stings a little, as he was poised for a big season, I believe the Vikes are the more complete team right now. I'm laying the small number and expecting a win and cover.

I'm playing on BYU 10* MAIN EVENT. Both these teams are off to disappointing starts to the season; each lost again last week. The Cougars lost 40-24, at Utah State. The Broncos, who were favored by two touchdowns, vs. Virginia, lost 42-23. Playing at home, I expect BYU to be the team which bounces back with an ATS victory. These teams have met each of the past five seasons and the home team has earned the SU victory in each game. The Cougars, who were 4-1 ATS in those games, won the last two meetings here at BYU by scores of 35-24 and 37-20. After they lost by one at Boise last season, grab the points with the revenge-minded Cougars.

I'm playing on NC STATE (10* MAIN EVENT). While I respect the Cardinals, I feel that they're in for a very tough test on Thursday. Off four straight wins, the Wolfpack come in full of confidence. This team has talent on both sides of the ball, one with a win at Tallahassee under its belt. That win over Florida State, its best game of the season, was the only time that NC State has been an underdog this season. 

The Cards are without Jaylen Smith, their top receiver. That didnt cost them in last week's easy game but may prove more costly here. Petrino said this of Smith: "He won't play next week. It's a sad thing. He's been playing really, really well for us, and he's our go-to guy, and he's going to be out for a while."

With last week's non-cover at vs. Murray State, the Cards are just 2-7 ATS in Weeks 5-9 the past 2+ seasons. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF WEEK). The 49ers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The fact that the Cards are off a nationally televised loss and playing on a short week, has kept this line lower than it easily could have been. The Cards are going to be in an angry mood and the winless 49ers should be the perfect opponent to take it out on. The Cards are 4-0 against the 49ers the past two seasons. They won the two games here by a combined score of 70-27. I believe the class difference is going to be evident and I'm expecting a blowout. 

I'm playing on LSU (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Trojans are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. After getting hammered at Miss. State a couple of weeks ago, the Tigers strugged with Syracuse last week. They eventually finished off the Orange though, pulling away for a 35-26 win. Having prevailed, that "wakeup call" officially behind them and with four games now under their belt, I expect the Tigers to put together a complete game here. Note that LSU was 6-1 ATS (7-0 SU) in Weeks 5-9 the past two seasons. While Troy has just one win its last 20 games against SEC opponents, LSU is 10-6 ATS (16-0 SU) its last 16 against the Sun Belt. I'm expecting a blowout. 

I'm playing on BYU (10* GAME OF MONTH). The Cougars check in off three straight losses and with an ugly 0-4 ATS (1-3 SU) record on the season. Those results have worked in our favor by keeping this line lower than it could have easily been. Keep in mind that the Cougars were laying -17 for last season's game. Granted, that was at BYU. However, the point remains that this line could easily be higher.

The Cougars won last year's game by a a 28-10 margin, by the way. They had a 249-97 edge on the ground, a 26-11 advantage in first downs. The previous year, the Cougars came here to play. Favored by a field goal, they won by a score of 51-28. Once again, BYU had a big edge on the ground, outgaining the Aggies by a 202-74 mark, in terms of rushing yards.

In fairness to BYU, the last three games (LSU, Utah, Wisconsin) have been pretty tough. The Cougars were underdogs in each, so losing them all wasn't a shock. Needless to say, the Aggies represent a considerable step down in class. 

This is BYU's first "true road game;" the Cougars are 7-2 ATS on the road the past couple of seasons. With the Aggies just 3-10 ATS (1-12 SU) as underdogs, during the same stretch, lay the small number and expect the Cougars to "get healthy" on an opponent which they know they can dominate. 

I'm playing on GB (10* NFC NORTH GAME OF MONTH). While they ulimately prevailed, the Packers had some trouble with a determined Bengals team on Sunday. Meanwhile, the Bears played with desperation and upset Pittsburgh. Those results didn't surprise me, as I won with both the Bengals and the Bears. This time, however, the Bears are on the road. The short week favors the Packers, who played here Sunday and don't have to go anywhere. The Bears were destroyed (29-7) in their lone road game. The Pack have long dominated this series and they beat the Bears by a score of 26-10 in last season's game here. I'm expecting another double-digit win on Thursday.

I'm playing on TEXAS (10* MAIN EVENT). Losing to Maryland was NOT the way that the Longhorns wanted to begin the Tom Herman era. I like the way which they've responded though. They crushed (56-0) a weak SJ State team immediately following the Maryland loss. Next, they very nearly upset a strong USC team, losing 27-24. I like the fact that they had some extra time off from that 9/16 game out on the west coast. Now, the start of Big 12 play represents a "fresh start." Laying two touchdowns at the betting window, the Longhorns won last year's meeting by a score of 27-6. While the Longhorns returned 17 starters from that team, the Cyclones only returned 11. Expect superior talent to win out, the Longhorns scoring their first road win/cover under Herman.

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* GAME OF MONTH). While I won with the Cowboys in their Week 1 win over the Giants, I was far more impressed with the Cardinals, than I was with Dallas, in Week 2. In case, you didn't see it, the Cowboys were crushed 42-17 at Denver. 

To some, it may initialy sound funny to say I was "impressed" with the Cards. After all, they barely beat (16-13 in OT) the Colts, a team which was destroyed by the Rams in Week 1. Sometimes, having to rally from a defiicit, to pull out a close win, can be just what the doctor ordered. I believe that'll prove to be the case for Arizona. This is a talented Cardinal team, one which under-achieved last season. Off a Week 1 loss - and in danger of falling to the lowly Colts - this season already looked in jeopardy. However, the fact that they pulled off the comeback bodes well for them here. 

The Cards have thrived as small home underdogs over the years. This is their home opener and I expect them to be at their best. I'll gladly take the points but am expecting an outright win. 

I'm playing on TCU (10* GAME OF WEEK). The Cowboys have indeed looked impressive. However, I believe this line will prove to be too high. The Frogs, 7-4 ATS their last 11 as road underdogs in the +10.5 to +14 range, have arguably looked every bit as impressive as their hosts. A 3-0 start has seen them outscore opposing teams by an average score of 49 to 14.3. Averaging more than 500 yards of offense themselves, the Frogs are allowing just 265. A 28-7 blowout at Arkansas shows they can win on the road. They're going to come in full of confidence. They're also going to come in with "payback" on their minds, as OSU embarrassed them (at TCU) last year, a game in which the Frogs were favored. The Frogs are 5-2 ATS their last seven as underdogs. I expect them to give the Cowboys all they can handle here, earning AT LEAST another cover. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA (10* MAIN EVENT). Both teams are off impressive wins. The Utes dropped 54 points on SJ State on Saturday night, improving to 3-0 SU/ATS on the season. Averaging 36.7 points, they've allowed 16 or less in all three games. The Wildcats, who were off a tough loss vs. Houston the previous week, were every bit as dominant as the Utes. They bounced back and destroyed UTEP by a 63-16 margin.

One difference is that Arizona's win came on Friday, as opposed to Utah's Saturday night victory. That means Arizona will be playing on a "normal" week while Utah will play on a "short" one. A day doesn't sound like much but it can indeed be significant.

While Utah (barely) won and covered at BYU, the Utes are still 9-15 ATS the last 24 times that they were listed as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. 

The Wildcats are an improved team from the one which lost at Utah last season. They upset the Utes here in 2015, as 5-point underdogs, and I expect them to give them all they can handle once again. 

I'm playing on USF (10* ANNIHILATOR). Both teams have had success overall at the betting window in recent seasons. That hasn't been the case so far this year though. Temple is off to an 0-3 ATS (2-1 SU) start. USF earned its first cover last week, improving to 1-2 ATS and 3-0 SU. The home team has won fairly comfortably, each of the last two meetings. Now, the gap between these teams is arguably wider than it has been. USF is loaded with experience and marching towards a New Year's Day bowl. The Bulls also haven't forgotten that these same Owls prevented them from a possible 12-1 season. (The Bulls would finish at 11-2, the only other loss coming vs. Florida State.) The Owls have already shown they can be blown out, losing by 33 at Notre Dame, the only good team they've faced. Payback time on Thursday. 

I'm playing on NYG (10* MAIN EVENT). I successfully played against the Giants last week. However, that was a road game vs. the Cowboys. With all due respect to Stafford and co, a home game vs. the Lions isn't nearly as daunting a task. The Giants, who beat the Lions 17-6 here last December, are well aware of how competitive a league this is. With back-to-back road games on deck, they know they can ill afford to lose this one. Beckham is considered a game-time decision but the assumption is that he'll be ready to go. Even if less than 100%, he'll be a big help. Brandon Marshall did very little in Week 1 and figures to benefit from Beckam's return. Either way, I expect the ground game to also play an important role. In last year's win, the Giants outgained the Lions by a 114-56 margin on the ground. The Giants also entered that game having just played the Cowboys while the Lions were also off a victory. Including that result, the Lions are 6-10 on the road the past two seasons while the Giants are 10-6. That includes a 3-1 SU/ATS mark as home favorites of three or fewer points. Expect homefield to ultimately make the difference, another win and cover for the Giants. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE (10* GAME OF WEEK). The 49ers are in the wrong place, at the wrong time. The Hawks are much stronger on both sides of the ball, more experienced and (arguably) better coached. This is their home opener, their stadium arguably representing the most "hostile environment" (for visiting teams) in the league. The 49ers were outclassed 23-3 in their opener and that was at home. While the 49ers are 1-4 ATS (0-5 SU) the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range, the Hawks are 11-7 ATS (17-1 SU) the last 18 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -10.5 to -14 range. Hawks won 37-18 here last season and 29-13 the previous year. This one could easily be an even bigger rout. 

I'm playing on SD. STATE (10* GAME OF WEEK). I believe that this is a very tough spot for Stanford. As you may be aware, the Cardinal gave up more than 600 yards (623) in last week's loss. Granted, that was against a very potent USC team and the Aztecs dont have nearly that type of attack. That said, that type of beating figures to have a lingering effect. That being the case and with UCLA up next, it might be hard to focus on the Aztecs. That figures to be a mistake though; SDSU comes in full of confidence, off b2b double-digit wins to start the season. Confidence breeds success. At least it has for this team in the recent past. The Aztecs are 13-2 SU and 11-3 ATS the last 15 times that they were off b2b SU victories. With Stanford just 2-5-1 ATS its last eight, as a road favorite in the -7.5 to -10 range, I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on CINCINNATI (10* MAIN EVENT). These teams have faced each other each of the past two seasons. In each case, the Texans won a close one. I like the Bengals chances of avenging those losses on Thursday. Both teams struggled mightily in their opener. The Bengals lost 20-0 against Baltimore. Houston was beaten 29-7 by Jacksonville. I won't try and say one was better than the other. However, I do like the fact that the Bengals, 3-1 ATS their last four off a division loss, will be at home for the second straight week. Playing on a short week is rarely easy and that can particularly be the case early on the season. Travel can make it even more difficult. You may recall the Texans playing a Thursday night road game last September; they lost 27-0. They're 0-2 SU/ATS on Thursdays the past couple of seasons. The Bengals also played a Thursday game last September. Like they are here, they were at home for that one. They won 22-7. As of this writing, it still remains to be seen whether the Texans will start Savage or Watson. They might not have a choice, however, as Watson was seen limping after the loss to the Jags. (He did have a limited practice Monday.) Regardless of who is behind center for Houston, I like Dalton's chances of responding with a bounce-back effort better than either of the Houston pivots. Bengals get some payback. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA (10* MAIN EVENT). With Adrian Peterson now wearing a Saints' uniform, the visitors are likely to be a popular pick. The general feeling is that the Saints' offense was already very good once again last season and that the addition of AP can only make them better. Maybe. Maybe not. Either way, its not the Saints' offense which is usually the problem. Their issues have long come on the other side of the ball. Last season's Sainst allowed an average of 28.3 ppg. That number climbed to 34.3 ppg their final three games of the season. The Vikings, on the other hand, allowed 19.2 ppg on the season, just 18 here at home. (The previous season, the Vikes allowed just 18.4 ppg while the Saints allowed 29.7.) The Saints have struggled in recent Septembers while the Vikes have thrived. The Vikes are 13-4 ATS their last 17 here. Expect superior defense and homefield advantage to ultimately make the difference. 

 I'm playing on DALLAS (10* GAME OF WEEK). These NFC rivals often seem to play on primetime. The fact that the Giants have had the edge in the series recently - and that many watched and remembered those games - has helped in bringing the line lower than it easily could have been.

Yes, the Giants did win (20-19) here last September, opening day. That was before the Cowboys really got rolling though. In fact, it was the first game for both Prescott and Elliott. Despite that inexperience, the Cowboys were in a position to win, at the end of the game.

Obviously, Prescott has learned a lot since then. His confidence has grown immensely and he's earned the trust of his team. Note that Prescott was extremely efficient in the preseason. He completed 18-of-22 passes, good for 219 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers. 

Even factoring in that opening day result, the Cowboys were still much better at home than the Giants were on the road. Dallas finished 7-2 here, outscoring teams by an average score of 29.3 to 21.3. On the other hand, the Giants were 4-5 on the road, getting outscored by a 20.6 to 17.2 average score. Look for Prescott and co. to get some payback from last year, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on ILLINOIS (10* GAME OF WEEK). (Big 10 Network) It wasn't pretty but the Illini escaped their opener with a win. Often, surviving a tougher than anticipated challenge can be good for a team. I expect that to be the case for the Illini, that close win serving them well this week. While the Hilltoppers have indeed been a dominant team in their conference, they're 0-6 all-time against Big-Ten teams. Now, they're being asked to go on the road and lay points. Yes, the Hilltoppers return their star QB, Mike White. However, he lost a lot of the weapons around him. Receivers Taylor and Norris combined for 180 catches and 31 TDs last season. They've moved on. Likewise for Wales, who ran for 1600 yards last year. Throw in a a few losses on the line and White might not find things quite as easy this week as he often does. Consider also that in addition to the personnel losses around him, White is working with a new coach and new system, playing their first road game. The fact that the Hilltoppers were laying -39 points in their Week 1 game and only won 31-17 supports the idea that they're not going to be as potent this season, at least not initially. They've traditionally struggled in road openers and I expect them to have their hands full the entire way.

I'm playing on OHIO. While the Bobcats played a "cupcake" (Hampton) and Boilermakers played a "powerhouse" (Louisville) I like the fact that Ohio won huge 59-0 a lot more than the way Purdue narrowly lost to the Cardinals. Purdue deserves credit for playing Louisville tough. However, the close loss figures to take a toll on them this week. Grab the points. 

I'm playing on UCLA (10* MAIN EVENT). The Bruins will have payback in their minds. You'll recall that the Aggies beat them (31-24) in OT to open last season. That was at College Station though. Now, the Bruins are the home team. They also figure to be in for a much better year. Of course, after last season's 4-8 record, there's really only one way to go. That said, this is indeed going to be a vastly improved team. Needless to say, the Bruins are desperately going to want to avoid going down the same path as last year. Rosen is surrounded by plenty of weapons and a highly experienced offense. This is his chance to shine in the spotlight - against an Aggie  secondary which often struggled last year. I dont think the Aggies, who may have more important things (Hurricane Harvey and the problems in Texas) on the back of their mind, will be able to keep up. Bruins avenge last year's loss and cover the small number along the way.

I'm playing on OLE MISS (10* GAME OF WEEK). You may recall that the Jaguars were also in the state of Mississippi for their opening game last season. Listed as 28-point underdogs, at Starkville, they won outright 21-20! Just imagine. A middle-tier Sun Belt team comes down and beats you, an SEC team, on your own field. Not the way you want to start a season! This isn't Starkville though and these aren't the Bulldogs. Expect the Rebels to have learned a lesson from that game - and for them to come in looking to get some payback for their state and conference. As Shea Patterson had to say: "We're treating South Alabama like it's Alabama." The Rebels are 13-0 SU and 8-5 ATS their last 13 against the Sun Belt. They're also 12-5 ATS (13-4 SU) their last 17 when playing a home game with an O/U line in the 56 to 63.5 range. Expect the Rebels to improve on those stats Saturday, the SEC settling the score.

I'm playing on MEMPHIS. The Tigers are hoping for and expecting a big year. Last season, despite a new coaching staff and having to break in a new QB, the Tigers went 8-5. While they do lose their offensive coordinator, this year's team should be explosive on offense, as they essentially return all their players on that side of the ball. While the Tigers do have some questions on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the secondary, UL Monroe doesn't have the weapons to take advantage. Expect the Tigers to jump on top early, which will ultimately force the Warhawks out of their running game and lead to a lopsided statement blowout.

I'm playing on UMASS 10* ANNIHILATOR. One could make a case for this being the most important game of the Minutemen's entire schedule. This is a team which needs confidence out of the gate and which also almost certainly needs a win in this game, if it wants to entertain thoughts of getting to six wins. I believe the Minutemen are going to come ready to play. They return their QB and have talent at the offensive skill positions. Tight end Adam Breneman ranks near the top of his position. The defense gets a new coordinator but that figures to be a good thing. They're far more experienced on that side of the ball than they were last season. Hawaii is a team which the Minutemen can compete against. Look for a highly motivated effort from the home team, the lumps the Minutemen took last season paying off for them in this game. 

I'm playing on ATLANTA 10* MAIN EVENT. Some might be surprised to find me on the Falcons, after I successfully backed the Patriots in their victory over the Steelers. However, I believe this Atlanta team is the real deal and that its peaking at the right time. 

While everyone knows about Brady and co, many haven't had much of a chance to get to know the Falcons. This is not the same Atlanta team from recent seasons. Its not even the same Atlanta team from earlier this season.  This team is absolutely firing on all cylinders right now. 

In case you didn't see the game,  the Falcons didn't just beat Green Bay. They destroyed the Packers. Ryan, the likely league MVP, is playing as well as he ever has. Jones is an absolute beast and the running game is clicking. Meanwhile, the defense is currently far better than advertised. 

Yes, the receivers dropped a few. However, the Falcon defense made Rodgers and the Packer offense look decidedly ordinary. Keep in mind that Green Bay had been virtually unstoppable for weeks. 

Its true that Brady is one of the greatest of all time. Obviously, he's going to really want this one. This is a chance to further cement his legacy. I don't think he wants it any more than Ryan or the Falcons though. Ryan has tolled his career for this opportunity. The Atlanta fans are desperate for a championship and this is a team which desperately wants to give them one.

 I'm well aware that Atlanta sports teams have struggled in championship games over the years. None of those teams were this year's Falcons though. So, its hardly fair to paint them with the same brush. After all, the Cubs didn't let all their negative history prevent them from winning the World Series. When its all said and done, I expect Ryan, Jones and co. to finish on top.

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND 10* PLAYOFF SIDE OF YEAR. This line could easily be higher. The Patriots were laying a touchdown when they visited Pittsburgh, in October. New England won by 11. True, Big Ben was out for that one. However, the Pats were also laying -7 when they hosted the Steelers last season. New England won by seven. 

The Pats are on a mission right now. They've won each of their last four games by double-digits. Each of their last six victories has come by a minimum of seven points. With the exception of a 2--point win at Arizona, in Week 1 when Brady was out, every New England win has come by a minimum of five points. Thirteen of their last 14 wins have come by at least seven points. 

While the Steelers are certainly deserving of respect, New England has the edge on both sides of the ball. The Pats average 27.9 ppg. The Steelers average 24.8 overall but just 21.2 ppg on the road. The Pats allow 15.6 ppg. The Steelers allow 19.7. 

I like the fact that the Pats had a week off two weeks ago and that they played at home last week. The Steelers, on the other hand, will be playing their second road game in the past two weeks, their fourth game already in 2017. 

The Pats are now 24-4 SU and 18-7-3 ATS their last 28 home games. That includes a 7-3-3 ATS (11-2 SU) record as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. Ultimately, I expect homefield advantage and the superior defense to be the difference, the Pats pulling away for the win and cover. 

I'm playing on KC 10* GAME OF WEEK. With the pointspread essentially a non-factor, I'm backing the rested home team. While the Steelers are red hot, the same is true of the Chiefs. The Steelers won big when these teams met earlier. That was at Pittsburgh though. The Chiefs, 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they played with 'revenge,' earned the right to host Sunday's rematch. They won 23-13 when these teams played here last season. 

Reid has been money over the years, when given extra time to prepare. The Chiefs are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three, with two or more week's worth of rest. Off this season's bye, the Chiefs went into Oakland and pounded the Raiders by a 26-10 score. He'll have the Chiefs better prepared to deal with Bell than they were for the first game. Having linebacker Justin Houston back - he wasn't around for the first meeting - will help. 

The Steelers were solid on the road, going 5-3. They outscored teams by a modest 21.6 to 19.6 margin in those games. The Chiefs were better (6-2) at home though. In those games, they outscored teams by a much greater 23.9 to 15.7 average margin. As you can see with less than 16 ppg allowed, the KC defense has been tough to score against here. I expect that to again be the case. 

To be sure, Bell and Brown give Rothlisberger a pair of deadly weapons to work with. Big Ben is a bit banged-up here though and the Chiefs' trio of Ware, Hill and Kelce figure to be every bit as dangerous. In the end, I expect homefield advantage combined with that extra week of rest to make the difference. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* MAIN EVENT. While they do have to travel across the country, the Seahawks are a battle-tested playoff machine which is peaking at the right time. They've been in this situation before and they'll be ready. Wilson does it all. He's calm and cool under pressure and he makes plays with both his arm and his feet. The running game got really going last week and the defense ranks among the best in the league.

While the Hawks thrived as underdogs this season, the Falcons were just 3-5 ATS at home.  Both teams benefitted from the fact that they were in divisions where the other teams had down years. While the Hawks had an impressive win at New England, Atlanta didn't exactly dominate the other playoff teams it faced. They did beat the Raiders by seven early in the season, before Oakland really got rolling. However, they lost against the Chiefs and only beat the Packers by a point. They were fortunate to play all three of those games here. 

You may recall that these teams also played a very close one against each other (at Seattle) earlier in the season. The Seahawks won that 10/16 game by a 26-24 margin. Speaking of close games, three of the Hawks' five losses were by six or fewer points. This one could also easily come down to the wire. In my opinion, getting more than a field goal with this Seahawk team is offering us excellent value. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA 10* MAIN EVENT. Last year, I took the points with Clemson. The Tigers lost but covered. This year, I'm laying the points with Alabama. Why the change?

While this year's Tigers are off a very impressive win over Ohio State and off another outstanding season, they're no longer undefeated. Last year, they came in with an undefeated record and the swagger/confidence that comes with it. This year's team knows what its like to lose, as it gave up 43 points in a loss against Pittsburgh. (The Panthers were just one of four teams which scored 34 or more against them.)

To their credit, the Tigers rebounded nicely. Still, in the back of their minds, they know that even last year's undefeated team couldn't beat Alabama. Note that last year's Clemson team entere the game against Alabama averageing slightly more yards per game, while also allowing slightly less, than this year's team.

Meanwhile, the Tide are arguably better than ever. Last year's Alabama team had a loss on its resumé. This year's team has crushed every opponent for months. This year's team averages more yards on offense (and more points per game) than last year's team had entering the Clemson game, while also allowing fewer yards and fewer points.

In addition to the Pitt loss, Clemson got seriously tested by Auburn and Florida State as well as both NC State and Troy. The Tigers couldn't beat any of those teams by more than a touchdown. On the other hand, no team has stayed within single digits of the Tide since way back in September. The Tide were 6-1 ATS against teams with a winning record this season; the Tigers were 5-5 ATS.

While the move to release Kiffin was indeed a little controversial, I believe it shows just how serious Saban is about this one. I expect his team to get the message and when the smoke clears, I expect them to deliver another double-digit win. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* GAME OF MONTH. The Sunday night loss against the Packers was a real killer for the Lions. They gave it a good effort and left it all out on the field, but it wasn't enough. As a result, instead of staying right where they were and hosting the Giants, they now have to travel across the entire country, playing on a short week, and facing a talented playoff-tested team, at arguably the toughest venue in the league. Note that this will be the Lions' third road game in their past four games. The Hawks, on the other hand, haven't left the Pacific time zone for nearly a month. 

While the Lions are below .500 on the road, the Hawks were 7-1 at home this season, outscoring teams by an average 28.4 to 17 margin in games here. 

I believe that Seattle is better on both sides of the ball. The Seattle defense, in particular, has been much better than the Detroit defense recently. While the Hawks are allowing an average of 268.7 yards their past three games, the Lions are allowing an average of 374.3 their last three. Hawks roll. 

I'm playing on HOUSTON 10* ANNIHILATOR. I admit that I felt a little fortunate to win with the Raiders when they beat the Texans on MNF, earlier in the season. You may recall that one. Derek Carr led the Raiders, who were laying -6.5, to a fourth quarter comeback and they won by seven. While the line would have been adjusted, its still likely that I wouldn't have backed the Raiders if they didn't have Carr in that game. Its also likely that they wouldn't have won. As you likely know, the Raiders won't have Carr for this one. While the Texans have QB issues of their own, they've gotten used to winning "in spite of" their QB while the Raiders are accustomed to winning "because of" theirs.  I believe that Carr's loss is going to be too much to overcome.

The earlier meeting was played in adverse conditions, in front of a hostile and pro-Raider crowd, at Mexico City. Including that loss, the Texans were just 2-6 away from home. However, they were a dominant 7-1 here at Houston, the best home record in the entire AFC. They got embarrassed (30-0!) in the Wildcard round here last season and I believe that they're going to be on a mission to erase the bad taste left in their mouths from that game. While the Texans were underdogs for the Mexico City game, they were favored by a field goal against the Raiders in the previous meeting, a 30-14 Texans' victory. I expect the Texans, who are a profitable 14-5-1 ATS (18-2 SU!) the last 20 times that they were laying points, to pull away for another win and cover here. 

I'm playing on WMU 10* BOWL GAME OF YEAR. Getting more than a touchdown at the betting window, I don't feel that the Broncos are getting enough respect. Sure, the schedule was pretty soft. However, this is still a team with a perfect 13-0 record. Winning breeds confidence and this team has plenty of it. Just like a fighter who has never tasted defeat, a team which has never lost gets a feeling of invincibility and that tends to make them even better. Eleven of the Bronco wins came by double-digits.

While Wisconsin will admittedly be the strongest team which they have faced, its worth mentioning that the Broncos did beat a couple of Big-Ten teams (Northwestern and Illinois) along the way. Overall, the Broncos were 4-0 SU/ATS in non-conference games. They're now 11-3 ATS against non-conf. opposition the past few seasons. 

As per usual, the Badgers are a tough physical team. The Broncos know that but they're sick of hearing everyone say that Wisconsin is going to run all over them. WMU senior defensive end Keion Adams had this to say: "We're quick, we're smart. Wisconsin, they haven't necessarily seen a defense like us. Yeah, we're smaller, but at the same time we're fast. So I feel like our 'how' as far as 11 hats to the ball, if they came with energy, came with passion, that'll be the difference-maker."

The Badgers lost their last game, their third defeat on the season. They also had another four games where they won by eight or fewer points. So, thats seven different teams, out of 13 faced, which they've failed to beat my more than eight points. While they weren't in that role often this season, the Broncos are 11-3 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons. I expect the Broncos, who average 43.5 ppg and 496.7 ypg, to give the Badgers all they can handle with a great shot at the outright win. 

I'm playing on SD 10* BB. I successfully played against the Chargers in last week's loss at Cleveland. At the time, I noted the following: "...While next week's divisional home game vs. KC, likely their last in SD, figures to be far more meaningful to the Chargers, this game should mean everything to the Browns..." "Next week's divisional home game vs. KC" is now upon us and I do indeed expect this game to be meaningful for the Chargers. Rivers isn't a quitter and this team has fought hard all season. They know they can hurt the Chiefs by beating them and I expect a highly motivated effort. True, Gordon is out. I'm not too worried about that though; Hillman is adequate. Admittedly, injuries on the offensive line are of more concern. The Chargers have been battling injuries all season long though and that hasn't prevented them from outscoring teams by a 28.1 to 25 margin here. 

In their final home game last season, in what they thought might be their last game ever at SD, the Chargers routed the Dolphins by a 30-14 score. Afterwards coach McCoy had this to say: "What a day.  There’s nothing like winning in front of your home fans.  It was a great atmosphere out there today and a great team win…. The leadership on this football team, give them a lot of credit.  It's been a tough year .. but, our leaders on our football team, they kept on grinding with everybody else."

I expect McCoy to again have his team ready to play. With the Chargers at 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range and also 3-1 ATS their last four in the 'revenge role,' I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GOY. In Week 17 games such at this one, where both teams have been eliminated from postseason contention, I've found that the "more motivated" team covers the spread more often than not. In this case, I expect that to be the Vikings.

The Vikings got off to a promising start this season, but fell apart in the second half. Unlike the Bears, who are "evaluating young talent," they still believe that they've got a strong team. A win here won't fix things, but it will at least achieve a .500 record overall and a winning record at home. I believe that does mean something to the players. 

The Vikings also figure to have a score to settle, as the Bears beat them 20-10, back on Halloween night. (Some of you may recall me winning a big play on the Bears in that one.) The Vikings were still 5-1 before that loss and know that if they'd won that game, they'd likely be in an entirely different position right now. Note that they're 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. 

On the other hand, the Bears have been playing out the string for some time now. They're bad on both sides of the ball and Barkley is coming off another terrible game at QB. In fact, he's now thrown eight INT's the past two games alone. While a road win would be nice, it would still do little to salvage a dismal season. 

Playing at home should also provide the Vikes with some added motivation, as they'd like to reward the faithful with a victory. Motivation aside, the Vikes are just a much better team here than Chicago has been on the road. The Vikes are 5-2 ATS in games here, the Bears are 2-5 ATS away from Chicago. Minnesota has outscored teams here (slightly) while allowing less than 300 yards per game here. The Bears get outscored by an average of 11.4 points on the road (26.7 to 15.3) and allow nearly 400 yards per road game. 

The Vikes, who hammered the Bears by a 38-17 margin here late last season, are 6-3 ATS the past 2+ seasons when off a division loss and 7-3 ATS off b2b losses overall. The Halloween game notwithstanding, the Vikes typically take care of business against weaker teams. They're 10-4 ATS (11-3 SU) their last 14 against sub-500 teams. Look for them to bounce back and avenge the earlier loss in a big way, improving to a lucrative 18-7 ATS their last 25 here at home. 

I'm playing on ALABAMA 10* GOW. The Huskies have certainly had a great season. I believe that they're going to find out that Alabama is still in a different class though. The Huskies fared well within the Pac-12 but their non-conf. schedule was quite weak and the Pac-12 wasn't particularly strong this season. The one team that did beat the Huskies this season was USC, a team Alabama destroyed by a 52-6 margin. The fact that they haven't been an underdog all season, says something about the Huskies' schedule. The Tide are 9-4 ATS when laying points. The Huskies failed to cover against OSU the only time that they played with two or more week's rest this season. The Tide won and covered at LSU when they did so, not allowing a single point. When the dust clears, I expect there to be no doubt who the superior team was. 

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE 10* BC GOY. The Cards struggled down the stretch. However, this is still a very dangerous team, the same one which absolutely crushed Florida State (63-20) in a game earlier in the season. I believe they're going to be very motivated to prove that they're better than they've shown. Beating LSU would get rid of the bad taste from the last couple of games and make for a successful season. There is no denying that LSU has plenty of talent and the Tigers would obviously also love to close out 2016 with a win. That said, the year overall has been a massive disappointment and they're already looking ahead to bigger things in 2017. Even a victory here won't change that. This was a team that came in thinking it could be the national champion. While I like their chances of the outright win, I'm happy to grab the points with the Cards, who haven't been underdogs all season, and who are 5-3 ATS in that role the past 2+ seasons. 

I'm playing on A&M 10* ME. The Wildcats check in as the hotter team but I feel that the Aggies are favored for good reason. Despite having to contend with an SEC schedule that included the likes of Alabama, LSU, Auburn and Tennessee, the Aggies stats are arguably superior to the Wildcats' stats. Texas A@M scores more points and puts up far more yards, while only allowing slightly more on the other side of the ball. While the Aggies were able to beat both Auburn and Tennesee, the Cats lost to all three of the top teams in their conference. Both teams faced a Pac-12 team early on. The Cats lost to Stanford. The Aggies beat UCLA. Snyder will have his team ready and the Cats are not to be taken lightly. All the same, look for the Aggies to be the last team standing. 

I'm playing on TEMPLE 10* ME. I've won my last few games involving MAC teams, successfully backing Eastern Michigan and Miami Ohio, while also winning with the Ohio/Troy total. None of those MAC teams are in the class of the Owls though. I backed the Owls in their last game and they rewarded me with a 34-10 blowout win over Navy. They've been a covering machine all season, as they've dominated on both sides of the ball. Off six straight double-digit victories, no opponent has stayed within two TDs since mid-October. Off three straight losses, losing by a combined score of 96-39, I don't believe the Demon Deacons are going to be able to match the Owls' confidence or intensity. Wake Forest is decent defensively but Temple is better. Meanwhile, the Owls have a signficant edge on offense. Still not getting quite the respect it deserves, Temple closes an outstanding campaign with yet another blowout win. 

I’m playing on DALLAS 10* MEGA PLAY. With the Cowboys already having clinched homefield advantage and the top spot, many are probably going to expect them to take their foot off the gas. Not me. Not this week. Not on a Monday Night home game, the day after Christmas. Rather, this is a chance for them to show the world just how good they are. 

Jerry Jones had this to say on the subject of "taking it easy": "I know that in our 2007 season here with Wade Phillips, we had a great season and then we turned around and got into the playoffs and rested pretty good the last ballgame. And we ended up losing the first playoff game that we had with home-field bye all the way through."

While the Cowboys have been winning, they've arguably lacked a big late-season "statement win," the type that can really propel a team into the playoffs. I believe that they're catching the Lions, who I also played against last week, at the right time. The Lions know that they could really use a win tonight. However, they also know that they've got a huge showdown with the red hot Packers next week. Regardless of what the Lions do tonight, that game will be the one which decides who wins the NFC North. 

The Lions, who are playing their second straight on the road, are 3-4 (2-5 ATS) away from Detroit. The Cowboys are 6-1 at home. They've outscored teams by more than a TD per game here this season (27.3 to 19.6) and I'm expecting them to provide us with a double-digit "statement" win on primetime.

I'm playing on VANDERBILT 10* BB. Both these defenses are pretty good. With an O/U line in the mid 40s, points are expected to be fairly hard to come by. That makes getting a handful of extra points with the surging Commodores pretty attractive. Vanderbilt closed the season with a 38-17 victory over Ole Miss and a 45-34 win over Tennessee. Though they didn't have to face Albamba, no SEC team beat the Commodores by more than single-digits this season. With the exception of an early-season loss at G-Tech, an ACC team that NC State managed to avoid, the Commodores were competitive in every game. They're 6-3 ATS when getting points. The defense has been respectable all season and the offense came to life down the stretch. As for the Wolfpack, the only teams that they beat by more than a TD this season were Syracuse, Wake Forest, Willam and Mary and Old Dominion. Both teams saw six of their games decided by seven or fewer points. I'm expecting another close one and am grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on Houston 10* ME. Can the Texans win with Savage behind center? I believe they can. Keep in mind that the Texans beat the Bengals, at Cincy, last season when the Bengals were red hot. They did so with backup TJ Yates coming in to play QB and he hadn't thrown a pass for weeks. Dalton, who had been hot at the time, threw for only 187 yards and was sacked three times. He was intercepted once and didn't throw a TD. Unlike Yates in last season's game, Savage has the benefit of knowing that he's going to start and some preparation time. 

The Texans have been winning with defense at home all season. They allow just 17.6 ppg here, to go along with a mere 286 yard per game. Not surprisingly, they've only been beaten once here. Off last week's tough loss against hated Pittsburgh and with their home finale against division rival Baltimore on deck, I feel the Bengals, who are just 2-5 SU and 1-6 ATS on the road, are going to have a tough time here. I won with the Texans in last season's game and I'm backing them again tonight.

I'm playing on HAWAII 10 ME. I already liked the Warriors' chances of winning tonight and with this line climbing from its opener, I feel that they're offering very fair value. While I played against them at times (like when they lost 66-3 at Michigan) this season, the Warriors fought hard down the stretch to get here, winning by a point at Fresno State and then beating UMass by six. They bring some positive momentum into the game, with their QB coming off the best game of his career. I believe that the advantage of playing in Hawaii will prove to be signficiant.

The Blue Raiders certainly had a solid season. Their QB hasn't played in quite some time though and they haven't faced nearly the type of opposition that Hawaii has. While the Warriors have faced the likes of Michigan and Boise (as well as SD State and New Mexico) to go along with Pac-12 teams like Cal and Arizona, the Blue Raiders' toughest opponents were Missouri, Vanderbilt and LA Tech. Sure, the Raiders looked good their past couple of games. Those were against Charlotte and FAU though. Their previous two games resulted in double-digit losses against UTSA and Marshall. They lost those games by 20 and 25 points. In fact, the (77-56) win over FAU in the finale was the first time that the Blue Raiders won a game by more than seven points since 10/1. With the Raiders just 2-7 SU/ATS their last nine in December, I'm taking the points.

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* GOM. Its true that the Chargers have been better than the Browns this season. Every team has. Being "better than the Browns" hasn't helped the Chargers much though. They still aren't going to the playoffs. And, they still aren't going to be returning to San Diego next season. That said, they can't be too thrilled about leaving So-Cal for a meaningless game at chilly Cleveland. The Chargers are banged-up at running back and receiver, as Gordon, Woodhead and Allen are all out. They represent just a small portion of the Chargers' current "bumps and bruises," as the complete injury list is lengthy, to say the least.

The Chargers, a west coast team playing an early game, have only two wins in seven road tries. Going back further finds them with just seven wins in 23 road games, the past few seasons. That includes a 0-1 ATS mark as road favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range. 

While next week's divisional home game vs. KC, likely their last in SD, figures to be far more meaningful to the Chargers, this game should mean everything to the Browns. They don't want to finish the season without a win and they know that taking next week's game at Pittsburgh is likely going to be far more difficult than winning this one. Plus, they'd desperately love to "play Santa" for the home faithful. I'm grabbing the points.

I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN 10 ME. While I respect Tulsa, I believe this line is generously high. The Golden Hurricane can score points with the best of them. However, they have trouble stopping other teams. Despite their successful overall season, they were outscored by a 36.5 to 36 margin in going 3-3 on the road. Two of their last three games were decided by a field goal or less. Speaking of close games, the Chippewas have seen three of their last four games decided by a touchdown or less. Admittedly, their offense isn't quite as potent as Tulsa's. However, they still averaged better than 400 yards of offense when playing on the road and I expect them to have success against the suspect Tulsa D. Over the past 2+ seasons, the Chippewas were 6-3 ATS off a conference loss and 9-5 ATS when facing a non-conf. opponent. During that same stretch, the Golden Hurricane were only 5-7 ATS in non-conf. action and just 1-4 ATS when favored in the -10.5 to -21 range overall. Before writing off the Chippewas, lets not forget that this team beat Oklahoma State earlier in the season. They had to deal with some injury issues but are healthier now. In what should be a high-scoring affair, I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on DALLAS 10 ME. I've successfully played against the Cowboys each of their last two games. So, some might be surprised to see me backing them here. Those were both difficult road games though. Back home, and off a rare loss, I expect them to bounce back in a big way. Note that while the Cowboys are 3-2 ATS their past five off a division loss, including a win/cover at Washington in Week 2, the Bucs are just 1-4 ATS their past five off a division win. 

While the Bucs have admittedly been playing pretty well, the Cowboys still haven't lost to any team besides the Giants all season. In fact, no "non-divisional" team has visited here and been able to stay within single digits. The Cowboys beat the Ravens by 10, the Bears by 14 and the Bengals by 14. Back on National TV, I expect them to "make a statement" with another double-digit win.

I'm playing on NEW YORK 10* GOW. Both these teams have been playing well for quite a few weeks now. I won with the Giants last week and feel that they're offering excellent value again here. The weather is expected to be cold, windy and very possibly wet. Those type of conditions generally don't favor a "dome team" like the Lions at the best of times. However, its worse in this case, as Stafford has an injured middle finger on his throwing hand. That might not be as big an issue if the Lions had a reliable running game. However, they're also banged up at the running back position and last week, when they hit 114, was the first time in months (since Week 2) that the Lions gained more than 100 yards on the ground. By comparison, while the Giants managed only 93 yards on the ground against Dallas, they'd topped the 100 mark in three of their previous four games. So, while the running game has also been an issue for NY, the Giants have arguably been better in that department, in recent weeks than Detroit. Of course, having a healthy QB also helps. While the Lions are 3-3 on the road, the Giants are 6-1 at home. The Lions are 4-6 ATS their last 10 December games while the Giants are now 6-3-1 ATS their last 10. I'm laying the small number. 

I'm playing on TOLEDO 10* PERS FAV. These teams will both be hungry to get to 10 wins for the first time. I feel Toledo will have the advantage. The Rockets lost only two games on the road and those losses came at Western Michigan against a very solid Broncos team and at BYU, by only two points. When playing on the road at Arkansas State, the other team (along with Appalachian State) which dominated the Sun Belt this season, the Rockets won by a score of 31-10. Admittedly, the Mountaineers defense has been stingy. However, the two teams which had some success against them (Miami and Akron scored 45 and 38 points against them) were teams which attacked them through the air. Toledo, which won 48-17 at Akron, and which averages 38.8 ppg compared to the Zips' 27.4 ppg, has the type of offense able to also have success against the Mountaineer defense. QB Logan Woodside has 43 TD against just nine INTs this season, completing 69% of his passes and nearly 4000 yards through the air. Look for the Rockets to finish on top.

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE. There are a number of reasons why I like the Aztecs. I like the fact that the Aztecs come in off a win and that they last played two weeks ago. By comparison, the Cougars are off a loss and that came way back on 11/25. Off that loss, disappointed to be here and with their coach having bolted for the greener pastures of Texas, the long layoff figures to impact the Cougars negatively. The Cougars, 0-2 ATS off a conference loss, are 3-6-1 ATS in the favorite role. I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on NYG 10* ME. I successfully played against the Cowboys at Minnesota last Thursday and I believe that this will prove to be another good spot to do so. Note that the Cowboys, who will be playing their second consecutive road game, are still just 7-10 ATS against teams with a winning record. After they lost against Pittsburgh last week, many people seem pretty down on the Giants. However, I'm not ready to write them off yet. Keep in mind that they'd won six straight before the loss at Pittsburgh. Thats a difficult venue and the Giants were playing the second of b2b on the road. They're still 5-1 here at home, the lone loss coming by two points.

As Eli Manning noted: "Hey, we're the only team to beat Dallas and we're going against 'em at home now, and we've been playing great at home. So this is a chance to prove that we are a good team and we are a playoff team."

The Giants were only getting a single point when they played at Dallas earlier. Now, despite playing at home and having an excellent record here, they're getting more points to work with. Thats noteworthy given that three of the last four meetings between these teams have been decided by three points or less, two of those by a single point. In what easily could be another close one, I look for NY to improve to 4-1 ATS the last five times it played a home game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. 

I'm playing on CLEVELAND 10* DIV GOY. Obviously, with a winless record in mid-December, the Browns have had an extremely disappointing season. The Bengals season has been arguably every bit as disappointing though. Unlike the Browns, who weren't expected to compete for the playoffs, the Bengals had high hopes this season. Instead, they find themselves all but mathematically playing out the string. The players know that even if they won every game the rest of the way, their chances are very slim. (As I undetrstand it, they'd need both the Ravens and Steelers to go 1-3, which is pretty difficult to imagine given that one of those teams will get a win when they face each other.) I don't think the Cincy players believe. 

In these "meaningless" games, its been my experience that the "more motivated" team covers more often than not. In this case, I expect that to be Cleveland. The Browns desperately want a win and getting against an instate "rival," one which already beat them this season and which has embarrassed them here each of the past two seasons, would suit them just fine. 

The Bengals, who will again be without AJ Green, have lost five straight on the road. Their lone road win came in Week 1 and that was by a single point. They're 0-6 ATS away from Cincinnati. A "revenge" home game vs. the Steelers next week offers far more reason for the Bengals to "get excited." 

The Browns, who had last week off to recover and prepare for this game, were 5-3 ATS in the final four weeks of the regular season the past two years. Grab all the points you can get, but don't be surprised when they finally break through with their first win. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE 10*. I successfully backed the Vikings against Dallas. However, they were at home and "getting points" in that game. Now, they're on the road and laying points, a situation/role I feel that they'll struggle with. Keep in mind that the Vikes still lost (by two) against Dallas. They've now dropped six of their last seven, going 0-4 on the road, during that skid. The Jags have remained competitive with five straight losses coming by 10 points or less. With the Vikings averaging just 16.7 ppg and 281.5 ypg on the road, I look for the Jags, motivated to give the home fans a win, to earn AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on NAVY. I won with Army when these teams faced each other last season, the Black Knights covering as large underdogs. I also successfully played against Navy just last week. So, some might be surprised to see me back the Midshipmen here. Last week's play was more of a play on Temple than one against Navy. The Owls are rolling and I felt that Navy was going to have trouble against them. Last season's play on Army was a case of grabbing the value, as I felt the line was far too high. Navy, which was laying -21.5 points, only scored 21. Things are different here though as the Midshipmen are laying a touchdown, or less. 

As you likely know, Navy is down to its third string QB, after Worth got injured last game. Last week didn't work out too well for his replacement Zach Abey. We cant really judge him on that performance though. He was thrown into a game unexpectedly, facing a very good defense and he was forced to throw the ball, as Navy was behind. Things will be much different on Saturday and Abey will be able to get back to running a more typical Navy offense.

While much is being made about the fact that Navy doesn't get an extra week (like it normally does) off before this game, keep in mind that the Midshipmen have beaten the likes of Houston and Notre Dame, a team which destroyed Army 44-6 only a month ago, and that they didn't have a bye before either of those wins either. Also, while the Knights do get that extra rest, they're just 12-35 ATS (11-38 SU) the last 47 times they played after a bye. (During that stretch, Navy was 103-68 ATS when playing with six or fewer day's rest.) Even with the QB situation, I feel Navy is again the much stronger team. I expect the Midshipmen to extend their streak of dominance in this series, covering the reasonable number along the way. 

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* GOW. I respect the Panthers and I won with them last week. That was a much different setup though, as they were still mathematically alive for the playoffs and as they were catching the Raiders on a short week and off a game in Mexico City. This time, however, they'll face an angry Seattle team which is playing on a 'normal' week and coming off an upset loss. Perhaps even more important, the Panther players no longer believe that the playoffs are possible. It was still an extreme longshot, even if they won last week. However, there was still no hope. Now, that hope is essentially gone. Even winning out would require a major collapse from every one. That knowledge, that the season is over and has been a major disappointment, is going to make putting in the necessary work difficult. While the Panthers are 3-5 ATS their last eight December games, the Hawks are 7-1 ATS their last eight, when playing in December.  While they knocked the Panthers out of the playoffs two seasons ago, a 31-17 win here at Seattle, the Hawks haven't forgotten last year's playoff loss at Carolina. They'll be all too happy to kick the Panthers while they're down, covering the spread along the way. 

I'm playing on ARIZONA 10*. Sandwiched in between a tough Thanksgiving Day loss at Dallas and another divisional game (Phialdephia) up next, I believe this will prove to be a difficult spot for the Redskins. The Cardinals have underachieved all season but this is still a very dangerous team. As disappointing as a season as its been, the Cards are still outscoring teams by a 21.8 to 12.7 margin here at home. They're outgaining teams by a commaning 410.3 to 287.5 margin, in terms of total yards, in games played here. The Cards are still mathematically alive for the playoffs and believe that if they "win out" that nine wins will get them to playoffs. Arians isn't thinking that far ahead but I do expect him to have his team fully ready to go to win this one. The Cards coach had this to say: "You just take them one at a time. I think once we win one, we’ll be fine. I think we'll add them up at nine and I think you have a great shot still because we’re going to be playing some of those teams that are going to be in the same spot we're in. We just have to win one." Look for the Cards, 5-0 SU/ATS their last five against teams from the NFC East, to do just that, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE 10* BEST BET. The Broncos are off a 30-27 Sunday night loss against division rival KC, the defense getting shredded in the process. Some Denver bettors might feel that was a "bad beat," as the Broncos were winning and KC rallied to win in OT. Either way, it was a tough loss, the type that can be difficult to immediately bounce back from. Note that the Broncos have now given up 30 points in two of their past three games, an average of 27.7 ppg in those three overall. Also, note that they're just 3-9-3 ATS their last 15 off a division game. The Jags continue to be competitive every week. Even if/when they do get down, they don't quit fighting. They covered at Buffalo last week and that marked their fourth straight game which was decided by seven or fewer points. Since their impressive 4-0 SU/ATS start, the Broncos have been very ordinary, going 3-4 SU/ATS, including 1-2 SU/ATS on the road. That lone road victory came by two points. Look for them to have their hands full, the Jags giving them all they can handle the entire way, once again. 

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO STATE 10* GOW. The Cowboys upset the Aztecs here on 11/19. Don't expect it to happen again. In terms of line value, note that San Diego State was laying -8.5 points for the 11/19 game. Now, we get to play the Aztecs laying less than a touchdown. Even with the earlier loss, they're still 6-3 ATS (7-2 SU) the last nine times that they were listed as road favorites. Both teams can score points. The Aztecs average 36 points, the Cowboys average 38.2. The Aztecs have a considerable advantage on the other side of the ball though. They allow 20.7 points and 318.9 yards per game. The Cowboys, on the other hand, allow 35.5 point and 474.9 yards per game. Over their last three games, the Cowboys are allowing an average of 52.7 points and 577.3 yards. In conference play, they're allowing 491.2 yards per game and 36.4 ppg. Meanwhile, the Aztecs are allowing a mere 17.4 ppg and 296.9 yards. You get the idea. I'm backing the revenge-minded team with the far superior defense.

I'm playing on COLORADO 10* MAIN EVENT. With an 11-1 record and fresh off a 45-17 beatdown of instate rival Washington State in the Apple Cup, the Huskies have had a great year. They're outscoring opponents by a whopping 44.7 to 17.8 margin. That said, I don't feel that they should be laying this many points against a Colorado team which has also enjoyed an excellent season. I successfully backed the Buffaloes in their very first game of the season, a 44-7 blowout of rival Colorado State. At the time, I stated that the offseason offensive changes were likely going to lead to a vastly improved offense. That proved to be accurate as the Buffaloes have averaged 34.7 points, allowing just 18.7 Colorado and Washington both lost to USC, the only "conference loss" for each. (Note that Buffaloes played the Trojans much tougher, as they lost by only four points, at USC. Meawhile, Washington lost by 14, despite playing at home.) Colorado's only other loss came at Michigan and its likely that Washington also would have lost there. So, while Washington does have the better record, those records could well be the same, if both teams had played the same schedule. With the Buffaloes a perfect 4-0 ATS in the underdog role, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* MAIN EVENT. It goes without saying that the Cowboys are having an outstanding season. I believe this will prove to be a week that they stumble though. The Vikings are one of the top defenses in the league and they've been particularly stingy here at home. In five games here, they're 4-1 outscoring teams by a 23.6 to 16.6 margin. Their lone loss here came in OT and they've held visiting teams to a mere 283.4 yards per game here. Note that they're 9-2 ATS the last 11 times that they were underdogs in the 3.5 to 9.5 range and that includes a 3-0 ATS mark as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. While Sam Bradford isn't going to be mistaken for Tom Brady anytime soon, I expect him to do whats necessary to give the Vikes a chance to win. He's hopeful to get his favorite target (Diggs) back, as Diggs (questionable) returned to practice on Monday. Note that in his last game against the Cowboys, while playing with the Eagles, Bradford was 25-of-36 (69.4%) while throwing for 295 yards. He had a TD without throwing an interception, giving him a passer rating of 103.4. Bradford started off slowly but led the Eagle offense to four scores in five full possessions in the second half and overtime. Bradford would eventually win the game by connecting with Matthews in OT. That was at Dallas, too. While another outright win won't surprise, I'm expecting AT LEAST a cover. 

I'm playing on KC 10* GOW. The road team won both meetings in this series last season. The Broncos won 31-24 at KC in September. Then, playing at Denver, the Chiefs returned the favor. Listed as +3.5 point underdogs, the Chiefs won by a score of 29-13. It was never close, as KC led 19-0 at halftime. While it was more the defense that won it, that was still a big win for Alex Smith as he'd previously had trouble beating Manning. Now 2-0 ATS their last two visits here. Smith and the Chiefs should feel right at home. The stats from both teams are very similar. The Broncos average 23.9 ppg, while KC averages 22.2. Both teams allow just under 19 ppg. KC allows 18.7, Denver allows 18.9. Even with a loss last week, the Chiefs are still 5-1 their last six games. That lone loss came by two points. While the Chiefs have allowed 19 or fewer points in four straight games the Broncos have allowed 19 or more in three straight, including 30 and 23 their last two. I'm taking the points. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA 10* BEST BET. While I won with the Raiders last week, this is a tough spot for them. First of all, even though I had them, I don't mind saying that the were Raiders were a little fortunate to leave Mexico with a win and cover, as they didn't play particularly well for most of the game. Regardless, they're now playing on a short week after just having played outside the country, in a very difficult/challenging environment. They'll be facing a Carolina team which is desperate, talented and playing with extra rest, having played last Thursday. As of this writing, most shops have an O/U line of 49.5. With the Raiders just 1-10 ATS the last 11 times they played a home game with an O/U line of 49.5 or higher, I'm taking the points with Carolina.

I'm playing on LA 8*. While they still came up short, I like the way that the Rams played with Goff under center. While the offense admittedly still struggled, I liked what I saw from Goff. He wasn't asked to do too much - but he executed and did what was asked of him. Goff was playing with a wet ball but didn't turn the ball over, never lost his composure, and gave the Rams a chance to win. Fisher said afterwards: "I'm really proud of him." As for Goff, I agree when he said: "Game experience is priceless." While its only one game, I expect Goff to have benefitted from the experience of being involved in a close game. Weather won't be a factor this time and he'll be playing at a venue where visiting teams have averaged 32.6 points and 406 yards per game. The Rams, who have seen five straight games decided by seven or fewer points, are 2-0-2 ATS against other teams with a losing record, going 8-3-3 ATS their last 14. With the Saints, who have seen six of seven decided by six or less, just 7-17-1 ATS the last 25 times that they were favored, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on HAWAII 10* GOW. I believe that the Minutemen have packed in their season and that they'll be more interested in "enjoying the island life" than putting in the work necessary to snap their losing skid. UMass is off a 51-9 beating at Provo, the second straight time it gave up more than 50, and hasn't beaten an FBS opponent since hosting Florida International in Week 3 and hasn't beaten anyone on the road all season. Defense has been an ongoing issue, as the Minutemen give up more than 34 points and more than 450 yards per game. While the Minutemen are limping towards the finish, the Warriors snapped their own losing skid last time out. A victory will give them six wins and they should be highly motivated to play well. The Minutemen haven't played at home since late October. Look for the travel and losing to catch up to them here, the Warriors happy to take advantage and kick them while they're down. 

I'm playing on UCONN 10* GOY. If I had a phone, it would have been ringing off the hook after I released this play. People would be asking me a variation of: "How can you release your 'Game Of The Year' on a team which is playing out the string and which is off back-to-back shutout losses?" While its true that the Huskies are off b2b shutout losses, there are a number of reasons why I really like them on Saturday afternoon. 

The Huskies are playing a Tulane team which is also off a shutout loss and which is also playing its final game of the season. While the Huskies have lost five straight, Tulane's skid is even longer. The Green Wave, who have won just three of their past 17 road games, have dropped six in a row overall. 

I'd argue that the Huskies have more talent but thats certainly debatable. Both defenses have been "respectable" while both offenses have been terrible. The Huskies' stats at home are arguably a little better though. While the Huskies have been outscored by an average of 19.3 to 16.2 in going 3-3 at home this season, the Green Wave have been outscored by an average margin of 29.6 to 17, in going 1-4 on the road. 

Its been a long season for both teams. That said, I like the fact that the Huskies have played one less game in November. They'll be playing their third game this month while the Green Wave will be playing their fourth. 

While I've mentioned the stats, in this "type of game," I believe that finding "the more motivated team" is often the single most important factor in determining which team ends up on top. I expect that to be case here and I fully expect it to be the Huskies which are more motivated than their guests. 

Last week was "Senior Day" for Tulane. It was unfortunate for the Green Wave that they had to face Temple, as the Owls are really rolling right now. Either way, Tulane got smoked. The Green Wave hung around for awhile but the Owls ultimately pulled away for a 31-0 blowout; a tough way to say goodbye to 12 seniors. As Tulane head coach Willie Fritz noted: "Congratulations to Temple, they whipped us." Off that blowout loss in the final home game, I believe its going to be difficult for Tulane to "get up" for its final road game.

On the other hand, the Huskies should have no trouble "getting up" for this one. UConn coach Bob Diaco says "he's the guy" for this job and seemingly has the support of both his players and the athletic director. The team had made big steps under him prior to taking a step back this season. He's determined to close the season on a high note and I expect him to have his players feeling the same way. 

Diaco had this to say: "I know exactly what needs to be fixed and I'm going to fix it ... Nothing seems like it is going well on the outside looking in, as a perception standpoint. But I'm here to tell you that's not true."

With no pointspread to worry about, I'm backing what I believe will be the hungrier team. Look for UConn, which Diaco once said "was built to play close games" and which won 8-3 at Tulane last season, to "dig deep" and finish on top. 

I'm playing on IOWA 10* PERS FAV. While I respect the Huskers, I look for homefield to prove the difference on Friday afternoon. After stumbling in back-to-back games, the Hawkeyes have responded in impressive fashion. After beating Michigan, as huge underdogs, two weeks ago, they delivered a 28-0 shutout win at Illinois. Dominant defense and a dynamic duo of running backs, each with more than 850 rushing yards, running behind a very good offensive line. That's a tough combination to beat. Look for the Huskers, who are getting outscored by an average of 30.0 to 17.7 on the road, to find that out. 

I'm playing on TCU 10* BEST. Both these teams lost a game they wanted and needed to win last week. While neither team was impressive, in my opinion, TCU's loss will be easier to bounce back from. The Frogs were hosting a red hot Oklahoma State team. Though they were favored, losing to the Cowboys wasn't exactly "shameful." However, getting blown out 31-6, the most lopsided home loss in 16 years under Patterson, was. Off that type of beatdown, I believe that Patterson will have be able to get his message through, prior to this important game. The Longhorns are off a much different type of loss and I believe that it will be tougher to recover from. Favored my more than 3 TDs against lowly Kansas, the Longhorns lost outright, in OT. Off that loss and now 16-20 here at Texas, its safe to say that Charlie Strong is on the hot-seat. In fact, even a win here may not save his job. (Earlier in the week, the Austin American-Statesman reported that Strong's firing was inevitable, saying of Strong: "He knows what is coming.") Don't expect Patterson's Frogs, 6-2 the last eight times that they were getting points, to have any sympathy. They pounded Texas by a combined 98-17 score the past two seasons. This one figures to be closer, but I look for TCU to finish on top once again. 

I'm playing on INDIANAPOLIS 10* BEST BET. Obviously, the Colts would prefer to have Luck under center. However, I believe that they're also capable of winning with Tolzien. Chuck Pagano had this to say of Tolzien: "Scott’s got a ton of ability. I have all the confidence in the world in this guy. This organization does." Dwayne Allen added: "There's a reason why he's our backup. The coaching staff, the GM and everyone in this locker room believes he has what it takes if the starter isn’t available to go out there and help us win games." Remember, the Colts let go a capable backup in Matt Hasselbeck, who had posted a 5-3 record as a starter last year, signing Tolzien instead. We've seen plenty of teams win without their star QB's - the Pats without Brady, the Steelers have been doing it off and on for years when Big Ben goes down - and we saw the Cots win without Luck last year. It can be done. Tolzien's got a veteran back at his disposal along with capable options at receiver and tight-end. He'll face a Steeler defense which has proven vulnerable at times and a Steeler team which is just 2-3 on the road overall. Both teams are off a divsion win. That should favor the Colts, as should the short week. The Steelers 1-5-3 their last nine off a division win. Meanwhile, the Colts are 7-3 ATS their last 10 off a divsion win along with 9-1 their last 10 in November. Take the points but don't be surprised when Tolzien and the Colts step up and score the outright win. 

I'm playing on A@M 10* ROAST. Both teams were hoping to be in a better spot than they are. Each have lost two of their last three to fall out of the rankings though. With both teams playing on a short week, I like the fact that the Aggies are playing at home and they've already had a chance to 'bounce back' with a win (they beat UTSA last game) though, while the Tigers are still licking their wounds off the Florida loss. While the Tigers are still going to have some success on the ground, the expected absence of Fournette is a blow. Texas A@M defensive end Myles Garrett, who had 4.5 sacks last week, should have the Aggie defense fired up. Last year, at LSU, the Tigers were laying -6.5. The previous season, here at College Station, the Tigers were laying -3. (They won by six.) We're getting a considerably more generous line to work with here and I believe thats providing excellent value. While the Aggies have indeed struggled as favorites, they're 1-1 ATS when getting points, beating Auburn outright and failing to cover vs. Alabama by a point. Meanwhile, the Tigers are only 3-7 ATS their last 10 on the road. I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Lions upset the Vikings at Minnesota a few weeks ago. I expect the Vikes to return the favor Thursday afternoon. The Vikes got back on track last time out, beating a talented Arizona team. While that was at home, its worth noting that the Vikes are a profitable 14-7 ATS their last 21 road games, including 12-1 ATS their last 13 road games when the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 45. Including the win at Minnesota, the Lions have won b2b games. They're only 4-8 ATS the last 12 times that they were off consecutive victories though. While the Lions may possess a slight edge on the offensive side of the ball, the Vikes should have a solid edge on the defensive side of the ball. They allow 17.6 ppg and 306.9 ypg. The Lions allow 358.6 ypg and 22.5 ppg. With the Vikes at 7-2 ATS the last nines that they attemped to avenge an earlier loss, I'm grabbing the points. 

I'm playing on OAKLAND 10* MNF MAIN EVENT. The Raiders are for real. This is their chance to prove that to the world (and a pro-Raider Mexico city crowd) and I expect them to do exactly that. The Raider offense is proving multi-dimensional and that it can beat teams in a variety of ways. Two weeks ago, they dominated the Broncos on the ground. The previous week, Carr threw for more than 500 yards. While the Raiders average 28.6 ppg and 417 ypg on the road, Houston averages just 11.5 ppg and 260.5 ypg on the road. I don't believe that the Texans, who are also soft (ranked #26) against the run, will be able to keep up. With this game being played on foreign soil, I like the fact that the Raiders have had an extra week to prepare. Note that they're 2-0 ATS their last two off a bye. The Texans, who threw for only 92 yards in last week's win at Jacksonville, are 0-2 SU/ATS off a division win this season, losing 31-13 and 27-9. More of the same Monday night. 

I'm playing on MINNESOTA 10* GAME OF WEEK. These teams faced each other on a Thursday night, at Arizona, a little less than a year ago. The Cardinals were favored by 10 points. However, the Vikings gave them all they could handle, losing by only three. That was an Arizona team which had been dominating opponents; the Cards came in at 10-2 and off a 27-3 victory the previous week. The Vikings, on the other hand, were off a 38-7 loss, their second loss of 17 or more points, in their previous three games and missing four defensive starters. This year's game sets up much differently. Perhaps most importantly, the game is at Minnesota. The Vikings are 3-1 here, outscoring teams by a 22 to 14.7 margin. Meanwhile, the Cards are 1-2 on the road, getting outscored by a 28 to 23.7 margin. The Cards aren't coming in on a high like last year either. They barely survived against SF last week and their previous two games resulted in a 10-point loss and a 6-6 tie. While the Vikings are again struggling overall, I already mentioned that they're still tough to beat here at home. They're also in the middle of a battle for the division title, as the NFC North remains up for grabs. Last year's game came down to the final play. The Cards went up by a field goal with less than two mins left. With only five seconds left, well within FG range, the Cards forced a fumble to seal the win. As they did last season, look for the Vikings to rise to the occasion. Look for them to finish on top this time, improving to 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as home favorites of three or fewer points. 

I'm playing on APPALACHIAN STATE 10* BLOWOUT GOW. If the Mountaineers are bring the right mindset, which I believe they will, this one has the potential to get ugly. Don't get too excited about the Warhawks' 2-game "winning streak." Those wins came against a pair of teams which are a combined 2-10 in conference play. The Mountaineers are strong on both sides of the ball, much stronger than the Warhawks. While the Warhawks may have played better this month, their defense is still allowing 45.5 ppg on the road, to go along with an ugly 544 yards allowed per game. Combine that with the fact that the offense averages only 18.2 ppg on the road and you can see why UL Monroe has been on the wrong side of a few blowouts. The last two times that the Warhawks played on the road, after also playing on the road the previous week, they lost by a combined score of 109-17. Speaking of blowouts, last year's game saw the the Mountaineers win by a score of 59-14. So, the question becomes less a matter of "are the Mountaineers capable of winning big against this team (we know they are) and more a matter of "how will they respond" to a tough loss against Troy. While that was indeed a tough loss to swallow, I expect the Mountaineers to be determined to bounce back by taking out their frustrations on someone. This is their regular season home finale and I look for them to keep the pedal to the metal the entire way. 

I'm playing on TCU 10* BC. While the Cowboys are on an impressive roll, I expect it to come to an end Saturday afternoon. The Frogs got back on track in a big way in their last game, a 62-22 (confidence-building) dismantling of Baylor. They ran for 431 yards and threw for another 257. They've since had a bye. While they stumbled earlier at WVU, off a bye, they're still an impressive 6-1 SU/ATS their last seven, off a bye. Speaking of "6-1," its also worth mentioning that TCU is 6-1 SU/ATS its last seven at home, when the O/U line was listed at 70 or greater. While the Frogs were resting and preparing, the Cowboys are off a hard-fought 45-44 win over Texas Tech. With that non-cover, they're now 3-6 ATS their last nine in November. It should also be mentioned that they've got a game against hated Oklahoma on deck. The home team has won big each of the past two seasons. Look for another win and cover for the home team here, the Frogs improving to 13-5 their last 18, off a conference win. 

I'm playing on CINCINNATI 10* BEST BET. There's a big rivalry between these schools and games are often close. Last year's game was decided by seven points and I won't be surprised if this one also gets decided by a TD or less. While the Bearcats have admittedly had a tough season, they're still fighting hard. This is a chance to beat a rival and to win their final home game, while also giving them five wins heading into the finale at Tulsa. To say that they'll be highly motivated is likely an understatement. While the Bearcats have struggled, Memphis hasn't exactly been dominant either. In fact, they're just 1-6 ATS their last seven games. While we have to go back a number of years, the Bearcats are 4-1 ATS the last five times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 7.5 to 10 range. In a game that could well come down to the wire, I expect them to improve on those stats with at least another cover tonight. 

I'm playing on CAROLINA 10* GOM. Both teams are off very tough losses last week. One could argue that the Panthers' loss was more "devasating" due to the fact that they're so far behind in the division standings. The Saints' loss was arguably "tougher to take" though. With both teams off those type of losses and both playing on a short week, I believe that playing at home will prove to be a signifcant advantage. All that aside, this is absolutely a "must win" game for the Panthers. Lets not forget that this is the same team that dominated all season last year. They're still very capable. Carolina is still outgaining teams by a commanding 387.8 to 284.8 margin on this field. I expect Newton and co. to have a big day against a Saints defense which is allowing (slightly) more than 400 yards per game. Excluding a few pushes, the Panthers are a profitable 61-39 ATS the last 100 times that they attempted to avenge an earlier home loss, 7-3 ATS their last 10 in that situation. Don't count them out quite yet.

I'm playing on SEATTLE 10* MAIN EVENT. These teams played an extremely close game against each other in the Super Bowl. I won't be surprised if this one also "comes down to the wire." That makes getting this large number of points very enticing. Wilson is getting healthier and its showing. He (and Graham) had his best game of the season last time out. While they've lost a couple of games, the Hawks have yet to lose one by more than six points. Of course, it helps matters when your defense allows just 14.3 ppg on the road. Look for them to give the Pats all they can handle here, earning AT LEAST the cover. 

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH 10* NON-CONF GOM. Admittedly, the Cowboys are having a great season. Since a narrow 1-point loss in their opener, all they've done is reel off seven straight wins, covering the number in all seven of those. This is the first time, however, that they'll be playing the second of b2b road games. They'll be taking on a dangerous Pittsburgh team with a coach and QB who know how to win, a team with an elite back and wide receiver. As the games get bigger, this Pittsburgh team tends to step up its leve of play, particularly against other quality opponents. In fact, over the past two seasons, the Steelers were 6-1-3 ATS (8-2 SU)in 10  games against winning teams, in the "second half" of the season. Keep in mind that the Steelers are still 3-1 SU/ATS at home, going 12-7-2 ATS (15-6 SU) here the past 2+ seasons. That includes a 6-1 SU/ATS mark as home favorites of three or fewer points. I expect them to rise to the occasion and improve on those stats Sunday afternoon.

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE 10* AFC PERS FAV. The Texans have been better than the Jags so far this season overall. However, I believe that the Jags are favored for good reason. With last week's cover, the Jags are now 2-0-1 ATS off of two or more consecutive SU losses. I backed the Jags the only previous time that they were off three straight losses, as they are here, and the Jags rewarded me by beating the Colts. This hasn't been a good role for the Texans; they're just 2-5 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. Of course, they're 0-3 SU/ATS on the road overall this season, too. They've been outscored by an average of 28.3 to 7.3 in those games. Jacksonville's Mercedes Lewis commented: "If we're going to get this turned around, it needs to start now. We're capable of getting on a roll, but the only way to do that is to get that first one and go from there." Look for the Jags to get that first home win, covering the small number along the way. 

I'm playing on NEBRASKA 10* GOW. As some of you will recall, I successfully played against the Huskers last week. Off their first loss, a hard-fought setback vs. Wisconsin, and playing the second of b2b difficult road games, I thought the Huskers would be "ripe for a letdown." Sure enough, they lost 62-3. That blowout loss will keep some people off Nebraska this week. That, in turn, has helped to keep this line lower than it would have been otherwise. I expect them to bounce right back with a huge effort though and believe that Minnesota is the the perfect opponent to do so against. The Gophers may have won four straight. However, none of those opponents (or venues) were as dangerous as this one. While the Gophers are 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were off two or more consecutive wins, the Huskers are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were off two or more consecutive losses. Regardless of who is behind center, the Huskers have a very talented offense and should have no trouble moving the ball. I don't believe that the one-dimensional Gophers will be able to keep up. Nebraska won big last year and I expect another double-digit win this evening.

'm playing on ARKANSAS 10* BEST BET. I backed the Razorbacks last week and they rewarded me with a win over Florida. I believe they're offering excellent value once again here. LSU is off a tough loss against archrival Alabama. That loss killed the Tigers' dreams of running the table under interim coach Ed Orgeron. Thats a tough pill to swallow and I believe it'll leave them a little deflated here. After getting destroyed by Auburn, the Razorbacks benefitted from a bye. Coach Bielema made the most of it, making some changes on defense. While its never wise to read too much into a single performance, the changes worked remarkably well; the Razorbacks were dominant defensively against the Gators, allowing a mere 12 yards on the ground. While the Tigers obviously have plenty of talent on both sides of the ball, they really struggled on offense last week, the same problem that led to Myles' release. The Razorbacks beat LSU by a 17-0 score the last meeting here, almost exactly two years ago. They also upset them at LSU, almost exactly one year ago. Including that result, they're 12-6 ATS the last 18 times that they were getting points. I expect at least another cover here.