I'm playing on TEXAS. Some are going to look at this game and think the following: If K-State beat Oklahoma and if Oklahoma pounded Texas, then K-State will also surely blow out Texas. That type of logic rarely works when handicapping football games though. Each matchup is unique and has its own situational factors to consider. Also, each matchup is entirely different and some teams simply match up better against others. There are numerous examples of this in all sports. (While Mike Tyson might have crushed guys that would give Evander Holyfield a tough fight, Holyfield had Tyson's number each time that the two matched up against each other.) In this case, I feel everything sets up nicely for a play on Texas.

Also, if looking at common opponents, one could argue that Texas beat Baylor, a team that just destroyed K-State by a score of 52-24.

Personally, I'm more concerned with the effect the the loss to Baylor will have on the Wildcats here. Keep in mind that this was a team which was really starting to believe that it was destined to play in the National Title game. Each week, that hope grew. Then, suddenly it was snatched away from them. While the Cats have much to play for and surely want to bounce back with a big win, I really feel that it will be a difficult loss to bounce back from. While Snyder has proven to be a master coach of the years, seeing your national title dreams dashed this late in the season is a very tough pill for any team to swallow.

While the Wildcats have had a bye to "recover," that could potentially make it even worse. Note that K-State is just 2-4 ATS its last six after a bye.

The Longhorns lost at a "neutral" site vs. Oklahoma and they've struggled to cover the number at home. However, they've quietly gone 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in their four true road games.

While they don't get much respect at the moment, this is still a very talented Longhorns team, one which has only lost by more than a touchdown once all season.

While we have to go back some years, the Longhorns are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. I expect them to improve on those stats here and won't be at at all surprised if they "shock" the Wildcats with an outright win. *10

I'm playing on SOUTH FLORIDA. I respect the Panthers. In fact, I successfully played on them just last week. They rewarded me with a convincing 27-6 win over Rutgers. However, that was at home and the pointspread. And, with a line in the pick'em range, the pointspread essentially wasn't a factor. This week, the Panthers are being asked to lay quite a few points, while also playing on the road. I believe that's asking too much.

Lets not forget that the Panthers are still a sub-500 team. Also, note that they're 0-3 ATS the last few seasons, as road favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. During that stretch, they're just 5-10 SU on the road overall.

Yes, the Panthers are desperate to get to .500 to have a shot at a bowl. However, I expect the Bulls to be every bit as motivated. This is a fairly talented USF team which has underachieved greatly this season. While a win here won't make up for months of frustration, it will greatly help ease the pain. Indeed, the Bulls would surely love to ensure that the Panthers join them watching the bowls on TV. Misery loves company.

Bulls' defensive tackle Cory Grissom had this to say: "That's what we've been talking about. Just make sure if we can't go to a bowl, they can't go. That's out mind-set ... "

Not only would the Bulls like to do some spoiling, they'd love to close the season on a positive note while also showing support for coach Skip Holtz to retain his job.

Additional motivation comes from the fact that the Bulls were blown out at Pittsburgh last season.

USF defensive tackle Luke Sager noted: ''If anything, it gives us more reasons to be up for this game. Last year, they embarrassed us."

Playing without senior QB BJ Daniels is obviously a blow - as he's led this team in recent years. However, Daniels isn't the only senior on the roster, as this will be the final game for 25 USF seniors, all that want to go out as winners. QB Matt Floyd now has a game under his belt, which should help.

Pittsburgh defensive coordinator Dave Huxtable said this of Floyd: 'He's a young kid, but he's going to be a good player .. he does a nice job of handling the offense. He has a nice arm and does some good things throwing the football.''

Coach Holtz said this of winning today's game and sending the seniors out on a winning note: "Without a doubt, it's big. We want to send out the seniors on a positive note. With as much adversity as we've been through the past two years, as hard as they've worked, as hard as they've played, to just fall short, just fall short, just fall short. Those frustrations, yes, a win would go a long way toward erasing those frustrations. Give those seniors a chance to walk out with a positive taste in their mouth. One thing this senior group won't do is quit. I know it's been frustrating. It would go a long way to get a win.''

The Bulls have been terrible as favorites but their tendency to play close games has them at 8-4 ATS the last dozen times that they were listed as underdogs or games that were "pick'em." I expect them to go all out the entire way and look for at least another cover, likely an outright wn. *10 Big East GOY

I'm playing on NEVADA. I had a big play on the Wolfpack the last time that these teams met here, just a little over two years ago. Listed as double-digit underdogs, Nevada would shock the Broncos in that 11/26/10 contest, winning 34-31. Boise was ranked #3 at the time and was looking to play in a BCS bowl game. I feel that the Wolfpack have an excellent shot at pulling off another shocker this afternoon.



Always well-coached, as usual, the Broncos are a very good team again this year. However, I don't think that they're quite as strong as some of the Boise teams of the past. Recent blowout wins have them looking pretty good. However, the opposition (Hawaii and Colorado State) was hardly top tier. Prior to facing those two lightweights, the Broncos lost to San Diego State.



A look at the schedule shows that the Broncos have really only faced four "decent" teams - and none of those are exactly "elite." The four teams that I refer to as decent are Michigan State, BYU, Fresno State and San Diego State. (Other games came against Colorado State, Hawaii, Wyoming UNLV, Southern Miss, New Mexico and Miami Ohio.) As noted, the Broncos lost outright vs. SD. State. They also lost a close one vs. Michigan State, getting dominated statistically. They beat Fresno by 10 but only squeaked by BYU by a 7-6 score.



In other words, all four games against quality opposition were decided by 10 or fewer points and three of those were decided by four or less.



With games at California, (31-24 win) vs. South Florida (32-31 loss) and at Air Force (48-31 loss) the Wolfpack have arguably played more quality teams.



Also, note that the one common opponent which defeated both Nevada and Boise is SD State - and the Wolfpack played them arguably tougher than the Broncos did, losing 39-38.



While the Wolfpack have already accepted an invitation to a bowl (New Mex. Bowl) game, I certainly don't expect them to go through the motions at all. They hate the Broncos and would love nothing more than to beat them.



Boise coach Peterson noted: "...I think it will be a hard fought game." He went on to say this of the Wolfpack: "They always have good running backs, and I think that comes with the pistol offense. Jefferson has been in the program for a while now and has a great feel for finding creases, it's a difficult offense to defend, it really is."



Even after the recent big wins, this year's Broncos are still averaging a modest 30.7 points on the season, on the strength of only 386 yards per game. That's be ok for some teams. However, its not up to Boise's usual recent standard. Indeed, last year's team averaged more than 44 points per game.



Its also not up to the level of offense that Nevada has produced this season. The Wolfpack check in averaging 38.5 points per game. They average more than 530 yards of offense per game here. (Admittedly, the Broncos have the edge on the other side of the ball.)



While the Wolfpack haven't been a good bet for most of the season, I've fared well in picking my spots on and against them. In fact, I believe that the only time that I played "on" them all year was at Hawaii, one of only two ATS victories. The Wolfpack were favored by a touchdown and they won by a score of 69-24. I feel this is another excellent spot for them. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. While they haven't been covering the spread recently, the Sooners continue to win. The recent non-covers have been one of the factors which have helped in keeping this line below a touchdown. I believe that's offering us very fair value with what I believe to be a superior team.

In a strange twist of fate, the Sooners are actually cheering for arch-rival Texas today. If the Longhorns can beat K-State, then the Sooners can still win the Big 12 outright. Of course, the Sooners need to take care of TCU here first. That makes this a very big game, one Stoops and co. can't afford to mess around with. That's particularly true, given that they won't know the outcome of the K-State game until later in the day. (As there is no longer a Big 12 Championship game, if both the Sooners and Wildcats win today, or if they both lose, then K-State wins based on holding the tiebreaker, having beaten OU when the teams went head-to-head.)

While the Frogs were better defensively last time out, these teams have similar defensive stats on the season, at least in terms of points allowed. The Sooners are allowing 24.8 points per game and 381.4 yards per game. On the road, they're allowing 23.4 and 394.4. Meanwhile, TCU is allowing 23 and 329.9. At home, the Frogs are allowing 24.6 ppg.

Its on the other side of the ball where the Sooners figure to have the edge. They 41.7 ppg, averaging 512.8 yards. On the road, those numbers actually climb; they average 42.6 and 547.8 away from Norman. Meanwhile, the Frogs average 30.5 and 401.3. Respectable but significantly less than the Sooners.

Given how competitive they've been over the years, one might assume that the Horned Frogs have been a good bet as home underdogs in this range. That hasn't been the case, however, as they're only 3-9 ATS (1-11 SU!) the last dozen times that they were listed as home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range.

Including the earlier cover at Texas Tech (41-20 win on 10/6) the Sooners are 2-1 ATS the past couple of seasons as road favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range, 1-0 this season. I expect them to pull away and win by more than a touchdown. *9

I'm playing on ATLANTA. It goes without saying that both teams badly want this one. The Saints are looking to stay alive in the playoff race and continue their dominance over a division rival. The Falcons are looking to clinch the division, while avenging the recent loss at New Orleans, which was their only defeat this season.

I won't go as far as saying that the Falcons will want it more - but I definitely think that they'll be extremely hungry.

While I really respect Brees and the Saints, I don't think we can ignore the venue. The Saints are 2-3 on the road. The Falcons are 5-0 at home.

We may not be able to see it on the scoresheet and its possible that he may never coach here again but I do also think that Sean Payton's absence can be a factor in a big game like this.

While it admittedly didn't help out much last Thursday (Thanksgiving) I do feel that playing at home is generally an even bigger advantage than normal, when playing on a short week.

Speaking of Thursday games, its interesting to note that the Saints are 1-5 ATS their last six Thursday games (1-2 ATS past few seasons) while the Falcons are a lucrative 6-1 ATS (2-0 ATS past few seasons) their last seven Thursday games.

The Saints defense may be improving. However, the numbers are still pretty bad. They're allowing 27.6 ppg and 455.3 ypg. On the road, those numbers climb to 28.4 and 466.2.

On the other hand, the Falcons allow 19.6 ppg and 344.9 ypg.

True, these teams have played some close games in last couple of years and its also true that the Falcons have shown a tendency to play close games this season. Still, the line is low enough that I feel a win will have an excellent shot at a cover. Note that Atlanta is 12-6-1 ATS the last 19 times that it was favored by four or fewer points, 5-1-1 ATS (6-1 SU) its last seven in that role. I expect the Falcons to improve on those stats, making a statement that they're the real deal. *9 Main Event


**********
**BONUS 1ST HALF MONEYLINE PLAY**
I like the Falcons to get off to a quick start here and am playing ATLANTA on the moneyline for the 1st Half. The Falcons found themselves trailing out at halftime (21-17) of the 11/11 meeting and I feel that they'll be on a mission right out of the gate.

The perception is that the Falcons are winning their games late. That's been true to a certain extent. However, a closer look reveals that the game against the Saints was the only time, since their bye Week, that the Falcons have been "trailing" at halftime. They were either tied or winning each other time.

The Saints defense may be improving. However, the numbers are still pretty bad. They're allowing 27.6 ppg and 455.3 ypg. On the road, those numbers climb to 28.4 and 466.2. On the other hand, the Falcons allow 19.6 ppg and 344.9 ypg. *6

I'm playing on LOUISVILLE. I backed the Cardinals in their very first game this season, a 32-14 victory over Kentucky. While it wasn't a big secret, at the time, I pointed out that Louisville was poised for a big year while Kentucky was going to struggle. Now, here we are with the Cardinals playing for the Big East Championship and the conference's berth in the Orange Bowl. While the Big East won't get its first championship game until next season, this game will serve as a "de facto title contest."

Both teams lost last week. Rutgers got crushed by Pittsburgh. The Cardinals were narrowly upset by UConn, Louisville QB Bridgewater breaking his left wrist in the process. While Bridgewater left that game, he did come back to rally his team, leading them to OT. The Cards have had a couple of practices to figure out what he can and cannot do and I expect them to be ready.

Even with a banged-up Bridgewater, the Cardinals have the superior offense. They averaged 32 ppg, including 30 ppg on the road. Rutgers, on the other hand, averaged only 22.9 ppg, 23.8 at home. The Knights' offense has really struggled in recent games too, managing only 16 combined points the past two games.

While everyone will talk about Bridgewater's wrist. Rutgers has QB issues of its own. QB Nova was briefy knocked out of the Pittsburgh game. He would finish with only 157 yards, completing 18 of 37 passes, less than 50%, while throwing another interception. Remember, Nova had six interceptions in a loss vs. Kent State last month.

Obviously, both teams really want the win. Motivation levels should be equal. The Knights have homefield advantage. However, I believe that the Cards are a little stronger. They've also shown an ability to win here, dominating Rutgers by a 40-13 score last time here.

Last year's game at Louisville was much closer (16-14) but the Cardinals won that one too. The recent wins in the series should help their confidence, a good thing after back to back losses.

Overall, despite failing to cover a few this year, the Cardinals are still a lucrative 11-4 ATS (10-5 SU) their last 15 road games.

With Rutgers games averaging less than 37 combined points on the season, we've got an O/U line in the low 40s. That's noteworthy, as the Cards are 7-0-1 ATS the last eight times that they played a road game where the O/U line ranged from 42.5 to 45.

Admittedly, playing a road game on a short week, after a triple-OT game is not normally "ideal." However, a berth in a BCS game isn't normally on the line either and that added adrenaline can go a long way in helping a tired team keep going

The Cardinals are 5-2 ATS the last seven times that they were off a conference loss, 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were off back to back losses. With it all on the line, I look for them to find a way. *10

I'm playing on the NY GIANTS. These teams both command respect. Both have elite quarterbacks and both are led by Super Bowl winning coaches. Either are capable of winning anywhere, any time. That said, I still feel that home field advantage is significant. And that getting the champs, laying a field goal or less, is offering very fair value.

Obviously, both teams really want this one. Its true that the Packers are playing with "revenge" from last year's playoff loss. However, they're also off a divisional game last week and playing their second straight on the road.

I played against the Giants in their last game, a blowout loss at Cincy. The champs have had two weeks to recover from that embarrassing loss though and they figure to be motivated by it.

Note that the Giants are 2-0 the last couple of seasons, after their bye. They won those two games by a combined score of 61-24. In fact, they're 4-0 SU their last four after a bye, every victory coming by a minimum of a field goal.

Manning seems to particularly benefit off a bye. Indeed, Eli has completed better than 68% of his passed for 1,290 yards, 10 touchdowns and only one interception over that 4-game "post-bye" win streak. I'm going with the champs to bounce back. *9 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Ravens opened as slight favorites in this game and that's still the case as I write this. I understand that the books are looking for balanced action. So, perhaps this will prove to be the perfect line for them to achieve that goal. However, my own "personal line" doesn't take balancing action into consideration.

Actually I make two sets of lines prior to ever seeing the actual ones. One is a line which factors in what I expect to happen in the game, my "personal line." The other is my "projected" line. In this case, I projected the game at "pick'em," which was pretty accurate. However, my "personal line" had the Chargers laying a field goal. In fact, I expect them to win by more even than that. Here's why.

The Ravens have been "unbeatable" at Baltimore. However, they're only 3-2 on the road. A closer look reveals that they are actually being outscored in their road games by a 19.6 to 16.6 margin. Perhaps more alarming, they're being outgained by a 369 to 256.2 margin, in terms of total yards, in those games.

In fact, Baltimore is currently on pace to become only the third team in NFL history to average 20 more points at home than it does on the road.

Looking at the three victories shows that their first two road wins came at Kansas City and at Cleveland. (They beat the Browns by 10 but only beat the Chiefs by three.) Let's keep in mind that those two teams have a combined 3-17 record so far this season. Clearly, San Diego represents a far more difficult opponent.

The Ravens' third and most recent win came last week at Pittsburgh, a 13-10 affair. That sounds fairly impressive until remembering that the Steelers played without Big Ben, not to mention Polamalu and others.

Speaking of that Pittsburgh game, the Ravens have a rematch against those same Steelers next week. Those two games against Pittsburgh are arguably the two most important games on their schedule. Having to fly thousands of miles for a game "sandwiched" between those two games is far from ideal. Throw in the fact that they're without a number of players and matters become even more difficult.

Baltimore has now won three straight. That's not necessarily a good thing though. Counting last week's Pittsburgh game as a "push" (it could have been counted as a loss) the Ravens are just 6-12-2 ATS the last 20 times that they were off two or more consecutive victories.

The Chargers' playoff chances certainly aren't looking too good right now. However, there's still a faint glimmer of hope. That'll be gone if they can't win this one though.

QB Rivers had this to say: "We can't worry about that. We just have to go try and win a game. We have to hang our hat on controlling what we can control.''

The Chargers are outscoring teams by a 24 to 21.2 margin here, outgaining them 335.7 to 312.7 margin. While there are no mulligans in the NFL, if one threw out the early "stinker" vs. the Falcons, the Chargers' home numbers are actually very strong.

This Chargers team is still 13-7 its last 20 games here. That includes a 34-14 victory over these same Ravens here last season. I expect them to dig deep and to find a way to come out on top once again. *10 FF GOY

I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. A friend asked me what I thought of the Chiefs against the Bengals last week. I'd won with both Cincinnati (vs. NYG) and KC (at Pittsburgh) the previous week but answered him that the game made me nervous and that I wasn't playing it.



I added that I felt the Bengals could easily go on a bit of a run but that I also felt the Chiefs had "at least another cover or two" left in them. I cautioned that I didn't like the fact the Chiefs were playing on a short week. As you probably saw or remember, Cincy won big.



While it (obviously) would have been nice to cash another ticket on the Bengals, last week's result suited me just fine. That's because it has once again made the Chiefs less appealing to the average recreational bettor. Throw in the fact that they're now playing Peyton Manning's Broncos and very few "joe public" types are going to want to back KC. The oddsmakers are well aware of this fact and are forced to put out a very high number. I believe that large number is providing excellent value on what I believe will be a highly motivated home underdog.



The Broncos are having a great season, as Peyton Manning has lived up to, if not exceeded, the high expectations of the Denver fans. That doesn't mean that we can't find value in going against them though. They didn't cover last week against San Diego. The 7-point win marked the fourth time in their last six games that the final margin of victory was 11 or less. Note that the offense could take a bit of a hit with leading rusher McGahee sidelined.



The Chiefs don't have much to play for anymore, in terms of playoffs. That makes games like Pittsburgh (because it was on MNF) and divisional games like this one even more meaningful, as the players have reason to "get up" for the game.



QB Brady Quinn should have plenty of motivation. Not only is he trying to prove that he belongs as a starter, he'd also love to show the Broncos that he can actually play. Some fans may not remember that Quinn was actually a member of the Broncos the past couple of seasons. The reason that would be easy to forget is that Quinn never attempted a single pass while he was there.



He was quoted as saying: "You take the opportunity when it's given to you. I didn't really get that opportunity."



Manning didn't even listen to the Chiefs' offer last year, instead listening to what several other teams had to say.



Romeo Crennel's teams have a way of playing Manning's teams tough. In fact, Crennel is 6-3 against Manning, dating back to his time as defensive coordinator with New England. (Sports Illustrated once calling him "Peyton Manning's Kryptonite.")



Off the hard fought win and playing their third road game in the past four games, I feel the Broncos may be a little spent here. I expect Crennel's Chiefs to rise to the occasion, earning AT LEAST the cover. *10 AFC West GOM

cI'm playing on MIAMI. I believe we're getting great value with the Dolphins as a home underdog here. Seattle may have had last week off. However, the Seahawks are still a West Coast based team which is playing an early game thousands of miles away from home. Meanwhile, the Dolphins were embarrassed last time out and should be highly motivated to atone for that performance in front of the home faithful.

As strong as the Seahawks have been in the Pacific Northwest, note that they're only 1-4 on the road. Their lone road win came at Carolina, by four points. (The Panthers are 2-8 entering Sunday's action, 1-5 at home.)

While we can't fault Pete Carroll or these current Seahawks for the problems of the past, its still interesting to note that Seattle is a dismal 5-16-1 ATS (6-16 SU) the last 22 times that it played with two or more weeks worth of rest in between games.

While they seem to stumble against losing teams at times, note that the Dolphins are a lucrative 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they faced a team with a winning record. That goes hand in hand with this season's 4-2-1 ATS record as an underdog.

The Dolphins are still mathematically alive in the Wildcard race - although with games against the Patriots and 49'ers on deck, even diehard Dolphins' fans realize that their chances are obviously extremely slim. Still, having those difficult games on deck makes taking advantage of this "winnable" one even more important. Otherwise, their current skid could go on for awhile. They're 6-4 ATS against NFC teams the past few seasons and I look for them to step up and get it done. *10 Non-Conf. Best Bet

I'm playing on HAWAII. While I haven't been right with them every single time, I've had a pretty good feel for the Warriors this season, correctly picking several spots to play both on and against them. Last week, I played on them when they broke through with a cover at Air Force. This week, I look for them to take it a step further and come away with the outright win.

UNLV may have covered the spread as an underdog a few times this season but that doesn't mean that the Rebels are deserving of laying points on the road. While the Rebels have won a couple at home, they're 0-5 on the road. They've been outscored by a 36.4 to 15 margin in those games, getting outgained by an average margin of 485 to 314. Going back further finds the Rebels at 0-20 SU and 3-16-1 ATS their last 20 away from home. Again, I feel they have no business laying points when they have yet to prove that they can even win away from home.

In fairness, UNLV has played at some fairly tough venues this season. However, a 33-11 loss at Colorado State in their last away game, against a poor Rams team, was revealing. They were outgained by a 340-219 margin there. (Hawaii also lost at Colorado State. However, the Warriors actually outgained the Rams by a 393-291 margin.)

While this is the final game for the Rebels, I'm not sure how motivated they'll be. Last week was their home finale and they fought really hard only to come up a little short. Now in Hawaii and knowing that even a win here will do little to salvage their season, it may be easy to get distracted.

On the other hand, I believe that the Warriors will really want this one. Norm Chow is in his first year here and badly wants to close their Mountain West season on a good note, by winning their final conference game, which would be their first MWC win of the season.

Note that Hawaii has had an extra day off than UNLV. The Warriors last game was Friday while the Rebels played Saturday.

Opportunities for victories have been few and far between for the Warriors. As seen by the above stats, they squandered a chance to win at Colorado State. They also came up short vs. New Mexico, which was disappointing for them. However, outside of those games, their last five opponents have been vs. Boise State, at Fresno State, at San Diego State, at BYU and vs. Nevada.

None of those were really winnable games and neither was their opener at USC. (They did win 54-2 when stepping down in class to host Lamar.) The Rebels offer a much better matchup for them though.

Wearing special red, white, and blue uniforms and helmets by Under Armour, I look for the Warriors to step up and score the upset. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. The Sooners haven't been covering lately but they have been winning. That has helped keep this line very reasonable. With an outright Big 12 title back in play, I expect the Sooners to keep on rolling, this time covering the small number along the way.



This game has plenty of meaning for both teams. I believe it means a little more to Oklahoma, however. QB Landry Jones, who threw for 554 yards and six TDs last game, had this to say: "Big Game. Final home game for the seniors. Final home game for myself, so obviously I'd love to go out there and I'd love to play to the best of my capabilities.''



The Sooners also have payback on their minds, after the Cowboys embarrassed them (44-10) at Stillwater last season. Keep in mind that the Sooners had won the previous eight in the series though and also that they've won every game here against the Cowboys since 2001.



Since the loss to OSU here in 2001, the Sooners are 4-0 SU/ATS as a host of their instate rivals, including a 27-0 shutout the last meeting here. The previous games here had scores of 52-9, 42-14 and 29-17.



Th3 Sooners are outscoring teams by a 39 to 21.6 margin at home, 40.8 to 22.5 overall. On the other hand, the Cowboys are being outscored by a 39 to 29.3 mark on the road.



A good team these past few years, one might assume that the Cowboys are a strong underdog. However, that's not the case. In fact, they're only 2-9 AT the last 11 times that they were getting points 0-2 ATS this season.



The Sooners are 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were listed as favorites of eight or fewer points, 3-0 ATS their last three. I expect another win and cover here. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on WAKE FOREST. These teams met here one year ago and the Demon Deacons were a very slight favorite. Now, they're getting double-digits. I feel that's providing us with a very generous line on what should be a desperate home underdog.



The Deacons still need a win to become bowl eligible. Coach Jim Grobe summed it up by saying:

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Rutgers comes in with the higher ranking and the better record. However, I expect Pittsburgh to be the team which emerges victorious.



While the Knights are trying to lock up (at least a share of) the Big East title, this figures to be a difficult spot. Not only is Pittsburgh a tough opponent, but its entirely possible that the Knights may be a little distracted by Tuesday's announcement that Rutgers will be leaving the Big East.



Distracted or not, I expect the Knights to find a desperate Pittsburgh squad waiting for them.



Keep in mind that the Panthers, who are leaving for the ACC next season, need wins in each of their final two games to become bowl eligible.



Pittsburgh receiver Devin Street noted: "We're definitely in touch with reality and what we have to do."



I actually played against the Panthers in their last game. (They were favored and lost outright at UConn.) However, that was on the road and a big part of the reason that I was playing against them was because they were off an absolutely heart-breaking(3-OT) loss vs. Notre Dame the previous week. Off that devastating loss and playing on a short week, I felt that the Panthers would have a difficult time bouncing back. (As expected they were flat out of the gate, falling behind 24-0 by halftime. I liked the fight they showed in battling back for a 24-17 final though.)



They've had plenty of time to recover now though, having last played on 11/9. On the other hand, the Knights last played on 11/17.



Note that Pittsburgh's senior QB Tino Sunseri threw for 302 yards and two TDs against UConn. He has completed an impressive 67.3 percent of his passes this season and has thrown only two interceptions. Over his last seven games he hasn't thrown an interception, a span of more than 200 attempts.



On the other hand, Rutgers' sophomore QB Gary Nova has thrown nine interceptions in his last three games.



Including the 20-6 win (as a 9.5 point favorite) at Buffalo on 10/20, the Panthers are 4-0 SU/ATS the last four times that they were off b2b SU losses. I expect them to be ready to go right from the opening kick, earning the win and keeping their bowl hopes alive, for at least another week. *10

I'm playing on WASHINGTON STATE. The Huskies have enjoyed a much better season and enter with the superior record . However, to a certain extent, records can be thrown out the window in these rivalry games.

The Cougars desperately want to salvage their season and I expect them to be extremely hungry. Things didn't go quite the way fans were hoping in Leach's first year - but a win over the rival Huskies would go a long way in making that right.

Leach had this to say of Friday's Apple Cup: "I'm kind of looking forward to it ... I think they're already motivated. I think the biggest thing need to focus on is our effort, our work, our development."



While they've won four straight, the Huskies are laying a lot of points here. Two of the wins on their current streak came by 8 or less. Even with last week's win at Colorado, they're still 2-3 on the road this season, getting outscored by an average of 32.2 to 20.

While the Washington defense is currently receiving a lot of props, note that the Huskies have struggled against offenses that are a little "different" and that Mike Leach's system has its own "uniqueness."

The Cougars have played three of their last four on the road, starting with a cover at Stanford, a game they lost by only seven. Their last home, they covered against UCLA, losing by eight. For the season, they're averaging 27.7 points and 435.5 yards per game at home.

The Cougars have quietly gone 4-0 ATS against teams with a winning record, moving to 10-3 ATS the past few seasons. They're 2-0 ATS the last two times that they were home underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range, 6-2 ATS their last eight in that role.

A look at the recent Apple Cup games here show that ALL five meetings since 2002, when the Cougars were the host, have been decided by a touchdown or less. In fact, four of those were decided by only a field goal. Don't be surprised when this one also proves much closer than anticipated. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on OHIO. Kent State has enjoyed an excellent season. However, I feel that this will be a tough spot. The Golden Flashes, who find themselves ranked in the AP poll for the first time since 1973, are trying to bolster their bowl resume while also finishing off the best season in school history. However, they already clinched the MAC East title and they've already got a date with NIU lined up for the MAC conference championship. Therefore, I feel it will be easy for them to look past Ohio.

That'll prove costly though. While the Bobcats have fallen on hard times of late, they've still had a very good season. Remember, they were 7-0 at one point. They don't have the MAC title game to look forward to and I feel that they'll be fully focused on the task at hand.

Ohio QB Tyler Tettleton, son of baseball player Mickey Tettleton, has completed 63 percent of his passes with 16 TDs against just two interceptions. He leads an Ohio attack with averages 444.3 yards and 32.8 points per game.

The Bobcats are 3-0 ATS the last three times that they were off back to back losses. I expect them to step up and earn at least another cover here. *9

I'm playing on the NEW YORK JETS. I quite liked the Patriots in last week's situation. Playing at home, I really felt that they'd have an advantage over the Colts and that they'd be out to show Indy's rookie QB that life in the NFL wasn't as easy as it was starting to seem. That proved to be the case, as the Pats pounded the Colts by 35 points. With everyone having watched that game, that lopsided blowout had worked in our favor here, in terms of line value. In fact, we're getting nearly as many points with the Jets as we were with the Colts last week. This, despite the fact that the Pats are now on the road instead of at home and facing a better team than they faced last week.
Some may disagree with the fact the Jets are a better team than the Colts. While everyone's entitled to their opinion, I backed the Jets when they crushed the Colts 35-9. So, I'll stand by mine.
At the very least, I feel that the Jets present a far more difficult matchup than the Colts. This is a divisional opponent that knows and hates the Pats. We already saw them give New England all they could handle in the first matchup, a 29-26 affair at Foxboro last month.
In addition to backing the Pats vs. the Jets last week, I also backed the Jets against the Rams. Winning at St. Louis isn't easy this year but the Jets went in there and took it to the Rams, winning 27-13. That loss has the Jets again thinking playoffs - but they know that they need a win here, in order to keep those faint hopes alive. The Pats have reason to win too and always like to beat the rival Jets. However, they're not dealing with the type of urgency that the Jets are facing.
The Pats obviously know how to put the ball in the end zone and its true that Brady seems to be able to work with just about anybody. The loss of Rob Gronkowski may turn a TD into a field goal though, while potentially stalling other drives altogether. It should also be noted that the Pats are giving up more than 440 yards per game in their division games and 390 per game overall on the season.
The Pats are on a real high right now. As noted, that's led to a big line. If you recall, the Jets were small favorites against the Pats here in 2011 and +3 against them in 2010.
The Jets are 6-2-1 ATS (6-3 SU) the past nine times that they attempted to avenge an earlier loss. This team has never lost its confidence and believes it can win this game. I won't be surprised when they do. *10 Roast

I'm playing on TEXAS. I respect TCU but I feel this line could easily be higher. Not only are the Longhorns in better current form, I believe that they're the more talented team.
The Longhorns have turned things around in a big way. They've won four straight, covering each of the last two. Their most recent performance was a dominant 33-7 victory over Iowa State.
That same Iowa State team beat the Horned Frogs (at TCU) by 14 points back in October. Including that setback, the Frogs are 2-4 their last six. They lost by double-digits to K-State last time out, falling to 1-3 SU/ATS their last four.
Both teams have had some extra time off. While the Frogs are 3-2 ATS their last five after a bye, the Longhorns are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS their last five, 28-19-1 ATS (38-10 SU) their last 48.
The rivalry with Texas A@M will be missed. The Longhorns closed out that chapter with a big win last year though. Now they renew an old rivalry with another instate foe, one they used to dominate many years ago. (Texas is 61-20-1 vs. TCU, most recently winning 34-13 in 2007.)) The Longhorns and their fans are excited and I feel that they're catching the Frogs are the right time. I expect a double-digit win. *10 NCAA Main Event

I'm playing on DALLAS. Last week's results have set this play up very nicely. Washington won big, easily covering. Meanwhile, Dallas had to eke out a win vs. Cleveland, failing to cover. Those results have kept this line very low, much lower than it easily could have been. Keep in mind that Dallas was favored by six points, when lines for this game were released before the season began.



Lets also remember that Dallas did still come back to win and that those type of "comeback" victories are often good, in terms of building momentum. That victory, combined with the Giants' recent swoon, has Dallas thinking division title again. Of course, the Redskins are thinking the same thing. However, I don't think they're quite there yet.



Sure, the Redskins looked good against the Eagles. Let's not get too carried away about that though. What team hasn't looked good against Philadelphia recently though? The Eagles have now lost six straight for the first time under Andy Reid, going 0-5 ATS their last five. Each of the Eagles' last four losses has come by at least 13 points, including a 15-point defeat vs. Dallas two weeks ago. Note that the Cowboys beat the Eagles at Philadelphia and with Vick still the starter, (He was knocked out in the 2nd quarter) while the Skins beat them at Washington, with Foles the starter. So, the Cowboys' 15 point road win vs. the Eagles was "arguably" as impressive as Washington's 25 point win last Sunday.



Prior to the victory vs. the Eagles, the Skins had lost three straight. All three losses came by greater than a field goal. In fact, all six of this season's losses have come by at least a field goal, five of those by more than three points.



Does Robert Griffin have some impressive skills? Absolutely. He's still a rookie though. There's much to like about Andrew Luck too and we saw what happened when he stepped up in class on the road last week.



Safety Brandon Meriweather returned for the Redskins only to suffer a season-ending torn right ACL last weekend. That's a blow to a defense already without starters Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker and with a banged-up London Fletcher at linebacker.



For the season, the Skins are allowing 383.8 yards per game, 26th in the league. That number climbs slightly to 386.2 at home. By comparison, the Cowboys are allowing 318 yards and just 282.5.



While the Cowboys have the superior defense, I don't feel they're giving up anything on offense. While there are some issues on the line, Romo continues to get it done, throwing for more than 300 yards in the victory over Cleveland. With last week's win, Romo is now 8-1 his last nine November games, throwing 17 TDs vs. just three interceptions.



The Cowboys are 6-0 against the Skins on Thanksgiving, 28-15-1 all-time on Thanksgiving, including 5-1 the last six. With the low line, a SU win has an excellent shot in also resulting in a cover. I look for exactly that to happen Thursday afternoon. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on DETROIT. The Lions have established an annual tradition of losing on Thanksgiving. While they're up against a tough opponent again this season, I feel that they've got a great shot at snapping their holiday slide and that getting three or more points is offering excellent value.
While its been a disappointing season, unlike many of those past teams which lost on Thanksgiving, this year's Lions are still a very talented group. They're only 4-6 but five of their six losses have come by eight or fewer points. So, things could easily be better .
The Texans were less than impressive last week, as they barely beat a bad Jacksonville team. They are undefeated on the road. However, each of the last three road wins came by a TD or less and any of those could have gone either way.
Note that the Texans are 1-16 SU and 4-13 ATS their last 17 in a dome, including 0-3 SU/ATS the last three. They're also 0-3 SU/ATS the last three times that they played a road game where the O/U line was greater than 49, going 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS their last nine in that situation.
The Lions are 6-3-1 ATS their last 10 against teams from the AFC and 7-3 ATS the last 10 times that they were off a divisional loss. This is their opportunity to show the world that they're no longer a joke - while also keeping their very faint playoff hopes alive. I expect them to step up and earn at least the cover. *9

I'm playing on AKRON. I'll concede that Toledo has a stronger team. That's pretty obvious by the large pointspread and by the respective records of the two teams. That doesn't mean that the Rockets are a good bet here though.
I won with Toledo in its last game. The Rockets were large underdogs at Northern Illinois. I felt the line was too high and that Toledo would play the Huskies tough. They did just that, losing by seven as 10 point underdogs.
I may have been a little fortunate to cash with the Rockets in that one, as the stats show that they were outgained by a whopping 596-396 margin. Either way, the Rockets' tendency to play "close" games continued.
Many will likely expect the Rockets to be highly motivated to bounce back with a blowout win in their home finale. It would certainly help in proving that they were deserving of a bowl game. I'm sure they'd like an easy win, too. What team wouldn't?
However, off that big game vs. the Huskies and knowing that they're already "bowl eligible," I believe that its going to be hard for them to "get up" for this one.
The fact is that a bowl game isn't a guarantee for Toledo yet. The players and coaches probably believe that it is though and, given their OT loss at Arizona and overall record, as long as they win this game, I'd say they were deserving too. Looking ahead and/or thinking back to what could have been, could be a very real possibility.
On the other hand, Akron should truly want this game. This is all they've got left. Its been a miserable season and a win here would really go a long way in salvaging it. They've got a 1st year coach (Terry Bowden) who'd really like to show that progress has been made and to finish the season on a good note.
Note that the Zips have the schedule in their favor. While Toledo last played on 11/14, Akron last played on 11/10.
I successfully played against the Zips when they were blown out at Central Michigan. CMU was a single digit favorite and won by 21 points. I guess I picked my spot pretty well as that was actually the only time all season that Akron failed to cover on the road. The Zips enter this evening's game with a 4-1 ATS record away from Akron this season.
While the defense admittedly has some issues, this Akron team can score points and move the ball, regardless of venue. The Zips average 26.4 ppg and 435.8 ypg. Those numbers don't really take a dip on the road either as they're averaging 26 and 429 on the road. The Zips should be able to score against a suspect Toledo defense which allows 27.7 ppg and a very high 475.2 ypg. (That's more ypg than Akron allows.)
Prior to playing on the Rockets at NIU, I'd successfully played against them in each of their two previous games. In each case, they were favored and in each case, I cited their tendency to play close games. They would go on to lose outright at Ball State while winning by only five at Buffalo.
That makes it five straight Toledo games which were decided by seven points or less. In fact, ALL 11 Rockets games have been decided by 20 points or less this season. Ten of those were decided by 15 or less and eight were decided by 10 or less. I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *9

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. I played against the Steelers last week. They were laying double-digits in that one. Now, thanks to the Rothlisberger injury, they're getting more than a field goal, at home. While I respect the Ravens, I believe that's providing us excellent value with the home underdog.

The Steelers are 18-4 their last 22 games here, including an 8-1 mark with the O/U line ranged from 38.5 to 42. During that stretch, the Ravens were only 12-11 on the road. Keep in mind that they only won one of this season's four road games by more than a field goal and that was at Cleveland.

Also, note that the Ravens are an ugly 6-12-1 ATS the last 19 times that they were off b2b SU victories, going 0-3 ATS their last three in that situation.

While losing Big Ben is obviously a blow, the Steelers are a team that finds a way. True, Leftwich isn't Ben Rothlisberger. But he has plenty of starting experience and he's got a lot to work with. Last week's relief effort should have helped get some of the rust off. Leftwich noted: "I try to prepare as if I am the starter every week. Nothing will change. I wish Ben the best. I hope he is healthy. Other than that I will be ready to go."

While all the talk will be about the QB situation, keep in mind that the Steelers are allowing 12 points per game here as compared to the 22 that Baltimore allows on the road.

The Steelers permit only 265.7 yards per game, just 252.5 at home. (That isn't Rothlisberger putting up those numbers!) On the other hand, the Ravens allow more than 390 yards per game.

With five of the last seven meetings decided by a field goal, I'm grabbing the points. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. The Broncos have cost me a couple of times of late, so I'm certainly well aware of how well they've been playing. Still, I expect them to have their hands full against a revenge-minded divisional opponent which is playing for its season.



If you remember the earlier meeting, the Chargers were up 24-0 at halftime, before Denver stormed back for a 35-24 victory. So, San Diego certainly had a chance. Obviously, the Chargers haven't forgotten that loss and would obviously love some payback.



Looking at the previous three games between these teams and we find that all were decided by five points or less. Of course, Manning wasn't there for those. However, the point that I'm trying to make is that these teams have a recent history of playing close games against each other.



The Chargers tend to play well in road games which are expected to be high-scoring. They're 17-8-1 ATS the last 26 times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 45.5 to 49 range. I look for them to give Manning's Broncos all they can handle. *9

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. I give Luck and the Colts a lot of credit to be in this position. However, I still expect them to receive a reality check here.

This game reminds me a little of the Washington/Pittsburgh matchup earlier this season. At the time, Robert Griffin III was the talk of the town and many were taking the points with the Redskins when they traveled to Pittsburgh. When they got there, however, RG3 and co. received a dose of reality, as Big Ben and the Steelers laid a beating on them.

Perhaps Tebow's visit here last January is a more appropriate comparison. The Broncos came in off an upset over Pittsburgh and Tebowmania was ready to reach a frenzy. Brady and co. nipped it in the bud, however, destroying Denver by a 45-10 count. Seemingly intent on showing up the upstart Tebow, Brady would finish with six touchdowns, five of them in the first half.

The first meeting between Brady and Tebow was similar. The Broncos were off six straight wins and four straight 4-quarter comebacks. Brady went into Denver, however, and led the Pats to a 41-23 win.

Obviously, this is an entirely different matchup. However, the point that I'm trying to make is that the "flavor of the month QB" often gets exposed when stepping up against an established elite QB - and that Brady has a history of elevating his game when another QB tries to steal the show from him.

The Colts got smoked in their first two road games, losing 41-21 at Chicago and 35-9 at New York. Since then, they've gone 2-0 on the road. However, a closer look reveals that both of those road wins came against teams with losing records, Tennessee and Jacksonville. Now, they'll be at Foxboro against a future Hall of Fame QB/Coach combo which will be looking to bring the rookie down a notch.

In fact, a closer look at the last four Colts' opponents shows that they've faced the likes of Jacksonville, Miami, Tennessee and Cleveland. All four of those teams rank below the league average in terms of points scored and the Jags are the worst overall. Now, the Colts will take on the best offense in football. The Pats are averaging 33.2 ppg, which is #1 in the league.

New England's 430 yards per game is also by far the best in football. Only Detroit averages more than 400 and the Lions average 406, well below the Pats' number. Every other team is below that mark.

The comeback with vs. Green Bay was an accomplishment. However, that was at Indianapolis and that's arguably the only "good" team that the Colts have beaten all year.

The Colts and Patriots have had some great games over the years as the Manning/Brady rivalry was a good one. If Brady keeps going at a high level for a few more years, its possible that the Luck/Brady rivalry could also develop. For now, I think its still a mismatch. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Off a victory over the previously undefeated Falcons and with five ATS victories in their last six games, the Saints are suddenly a popular pick again. I feel that this will be a very tough spot for them though.



As noted, the Saints are off a huge divisional victory. That puts in them in a potential "letdown" spot. They've also got a very big game vs. San Francisco on deck. You may recall the Saints were knocked out of the playoffs by the 49'ers last year, a 36-32 victory on 1/12. That's a potential cause to get caught "looking ahead."



Either way, the Raiders aren't much to get excited over. The Saints do have to travel to the West Coast, however, while also playing on a short week. That can be more difficult than it sounds. Lets not forget that the Saints only have one road win all year, a 7-point win at Tampa.



While they certainly didn't look too good at Baltimore last week, lets not forget that the Raiders have still won two of their last three home games. They're 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were off back to back SU losses and I look for them to step up and earn at least a cover here. *10 Annihilator

I'm playing on CAROLINA. Admittedly, the Bucs have been the better team in recent weeks. That doesn't mean that they're ready to become road favorites against a revenge-minded divisional opponent. Keep in mind that the Panthers were 3 point favorites when these teams met at Tampa, back in early September.

While they haven't been in that role often recently, note that the Bucs are an awful 5-13-1 ATS (6-13 SU) the last 19 times that they were listed as road favorites of three or fewer points, 0-1-1 ATS the past couple of years.

Note that Tampa was outgained 426-279 in last week's victory. So, that was a little deceiving. The previous week, the Bucs gave up 32 poins and 424 yards to the Raiders. This is a defense which allows an average of over 400 yards per game, 423.5 (and 26.5 ppg) on the road. By comparison, Carolina's 344.9 yards allowed per game looks very respectable. Losing linebacker Quincy Black last week won't help this Tampa defense.

The Panthers were outclassed by Manning's Broncos last week. However, I feel that the Bucs are a better matchup for them. Keep in mind that Carolina beat Washington the previous game and nearly beat the Bears (23-22 loss) at Chicago, the game before that. Even with last week's loss, the Panthers have still quietly gone 4-2 ATS in the underdog role.

The Panthers have long been tough in the revenge role. They're 50-34 ATS in 84 "revenge" situations, including 3-0 ATS the last three. I expect a big effort here, starting from "the top."

Cam Newton had this to say: "It's very embarrassing, but things are going to change ... there are brighter days ahead for the Carolina Panthers."

The Panthers crushed the Bucs 48-16 in last season's meeting here, laying 7.5 points. All they need is a win here; I look for them to get it. *10 NFC South GOM

I'm playing on the NEW YORK JETS. I'm well aware that the Rams are a better team this year and that they tend to play much better at home. In fact, I'm 3-0 when backing them here at St. Louis as I supported them in their victories over the Washington, Arizona and Seattle. (I didn't play on them when they lost to Green Bay and their other "home" game was in Europe, a blowout loss vs. New England, a game I didn't touch.) The Rams were underdogs each of the three times that I backed them here. Now, however, they're being asked to win by more than a field goal. I believe that's asking too much.

The Rams haven't been favored yet in 2012 However, they were favored three times in 2011 (twice last season) and they lost all three of those games outright. On 11/27/11, they were 2.5 point home favorites vs. Arizona and lost 23-20. The previous week, on 11/20/11, they were three point home favorites vs. Seattle and lost 24-7. Prior to that, they lost a January 2011 game, when favored at Seattle, by a score of 16-6.

One of the reasons that I've "taken the points" with the Rams is that they have a tendency to play close games. That was certainly evident in last week's game, a 24-24 tie at San Francisco. It should be noted that they had to fly back from the West Coast after "leaving it all on the field" in the game vs. San Francisco. Prior to that, they'd had a little time off, but that was preceded by a trip to London. With a trip to Arizona up next, I believe all the traveling could well catch up to them here.

While they've gone through a recent tough stretch, the Jets are still 9-4-1 ATS (11-3 SU) their last 14 against teams with a losing record. The playoffs have become a pretty remote possibility. However, if they can win today, they'll still be alive. A loss here and their fate is officially sealed.

Sanchez obviously isn't Tom Brady but I still like Ryan's decision to stick with him. Here's what he had to say on the matter: "With me, I will never waver. I am not going to make a decision to save my job. I am in it to win games. I'm not sitting back concentrating on how do I save my job. I am concentrating on how do we win."

At the end of the day, the Rams are still 4-13-1 their last 18 games and two of those four victories came by three or fewer points. That means that the Rams would be 2-16 ATS their last 18, if being asked to lay more than a field goal. I'm backing the desperate visitors. *10 Non-Conf Best Bet

I'm playing on LOUISIANA. A low line suggests that these teams are quite equal. I don't believe that's the case.

The Ragin' Cajuns very nearly upset Florida last week. If they'd actually entered that game expecting to win, I'd potentially be concerned with a letdown here, as they did lose in rather heartbreaking fashion. However, as that was a game that they never thought they could win, I don't expect them to be too devastated from the tough loss. Rather, I expect them to gain confidence from the fact that they were able to go toe-to-toe vs. a team regarded as one of the best in the country.

That's a lot more than Western Kentucky can say. The Hilltoppers started the season very well and were on a great run at the betting window. Regulars will remember that we successfully played against them against Middle Tennessee State a couple of weeks ago though, when they lost outright as 9-point favorites. They followed that up by losing outright vs. FAU, failing to cover by 25 points. I believe that those losses indicate that all is not right for this team at the moment.

One of the big reasons I backed FIU over FAU last night (another Sun Belt game) was that I liked the QB play that the Panthers were getting from QB Jake Medlock. He came through with a 264-yard 2-TD performance in last night's 34-24 win. I also like the QB play that the Cajuns are getting.

Terrance Broadway took over as the starting quarterback in late September and he's been very solid ever since. He checks in with 1,795 passing yards, 328 rushing yards, and 17 total touchdowns. That goes against just six interceptions. While he didn't throw any TD passes, he completed 16-of-23 passes (171 yards) and didn't turn the ball over at Florida, which is pretty impressive given the Gators' stout defense. With four different receivers with greater than 375 receiving yards, Broadway knows how to spread it around.

The Cajuns are outscoring teams by a 39-20 margin on this field, outgaining them by a 435 to 301 margin. With last week's cover, they're now 7-2 ATS their last nine in November and 7-2 ATS their last nine against winning teams. They've been upset by the Hilltoppers each of the past two seasons. Now, its payback time. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ILLINOIS. While they're off a win at Iowa last week, I don't believe that the Boilermakers should be laying this many points here. Last week's victory came by just a field goal, at the buzzer. Prior to that, Purdue had lost five straight and was winless in Big 10 play.

Admittedly, the Boilermakers do have much to play for. If they win here and close out the season by beating Indiana at home, they can still become bowl eligible.

Keep in mind that they're playing the second of back to back road games here though, a situation that isn't typically kind to them. After covering the spread at Ohio State on 10/20, the Boilermakers got hammered at Minnesota the following week, losing 44-28 as slight favorites.

Illinois has certainly had a disappointing season. They're not giving anything away "talent-wise" here though and I expect the Illini to treat this game like its their "bow game." Keep in mind that its their home finale and that its a chance to play spoiler against a conference rival. Of course, the Illini would also like to claim the prized "Cannon Trophy," a little something to salvage the campaign.

Last year's game, at Purdue, was decided by seven points. The mot recent game here at Illinois saw the Illini win by a score of 44-10. With the Boilermakers 0-3 ATS their last three as road favorites, I'm grabbing the points with what I expect to be a highly motivated home underdog. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on COLORADO. I feel the home underdog is offering plenty of value here. While the Buffaloes have clearly had a disappointing season, this is arguably their "easiest" game in quite some time. Three of their last four games have come on the road and those games were at venues like Oregon, USC and Arizona. Their lone home game over the last month came vs. Stanford. The Huskies aren't slouches either. Still, a home game against them should provide an opportunity to at least stay competitive.

The Huskies are rarely road favorites, going just 1-2 SU/ATS in that role the past few seasons and 15-20 ATS since the early 90s. Laying this many points on the road, in conference play no less, is practically unheard for them.

Keep in mind that the Huskies are only averaging 22 points per game on the season an only 15 per game on the road. That makes winning by three touchdowns difficult.

Not only are they in an unfamiliar role but I feel that this will be a difficult spot for the Huskies, who are just 1-3 SU/ATS on the road this season. They're playing an "early" game (10:30 am their time) and they've got rival Washington State on deck. On a rare 3-game winning streak, given the situation, it would be easy to look past lowly Colorado.

While there isn't too much good one can say about the Buffaloes' season, it should be noted that they managed 437 total yards of offense against Arizona last week, something they can build on here. They broke through with a cover in that game and I look for them to follow it up with another one here. *Pac 12 GOM

I'm playing on MICHIGAN STATE. Northwestern comes in with the better record, a much better one at the betting window. I believe that the Spartans are favored for good reason though.

The Spartans are off a much needed bye, allowing them extra time to prepare, heal and to lick their wounds. With three losses in four games and still needing a victory to become bowl eligible, the Spartans figure to be an angry bunch here.

The Wildcats may not be quite as "ferocious." They're already bowl eligible and they're off a hard-fought OT loss vs. Michigan last week. That was a real "heartbreaker" too, the kind that can be difficult to bounce back from.

While they've been able to have some success, the Wildcats are rather one-dimensional on offense; they can run the ball but can't throw it. The run game ranks 14th in the country but the pass attack is way down in 110th. I expect them to struggle against a stingy Spartan defense.

Granted, the Spartans' offense has been rather weak. I expect the offense to come to life here though. Last year, the Spartans scored just 10 points the game before their bye. However, they returned from the bye to win 28-14 against Michigan, easily covering.

Note that the Spartans topped the 30 mark against the Wildcats each of the last two years, going 2-0 SU/ATS. Going back further finds that they've scored more than 30 points in five of the last six series meetings. (They won the other won 24-14.)

The Wildcats are still 5-7 ATS the past few seasons off a conference loss while the Spartans are still 14-6 ATS their last 20 against a team with a winning record. I sense a double-digit win. *9

I'm playing on HAWAII. Air Force will undoubtedly be a popular pick in this one. Not only is Hawaii having a down year but bettors know, or at least they will learn, that the Falcons need a win, in order to become bowl eligible. With a much tougher game on deck (at Fresno State) for their finale, the Falcons know they need to take care of business tonight. That doesn't mean that they should be laying more than three touchdowns here though. Not the way that they've been playing recently.

The Falcons are off back to back blowout losses. Last week, they lost 28-9 at San Diego State. They were an underdog in that one though, so losing wasn't completely unexpected. However, a 41-21 loss vs. Army the previous week shows that this team currently has some issues.

To their credit, the Falcons did step up and beat Nevada the previous week, a 17-point victory. Their previous three games were all decided by seven or fewer points.

Looking back further finds that the Falcons only won one game by more than 21 points all season. That came way back in Week 1, a non-cover vs. 1AA Idaho State. Laying 31 points, they won by 28.

While tough in the underdog role, the Falcons are 1-6 ATS as favorites, 7-17 ATS the past few seasons.

Looking at some other stats finds them at 0-5 ATS the lat five times that they played a home game where the O/U line ranged from 56.5 to 63 and 23-42 the last 65 times that they were off a loss vs. a conference opponent.

True, its been a difficult season for the Warriors. This is a chance to play "spoiler" on National TV though and I expect Norm Chow to have his team believing that they have a real chance. They've had time to grow over the year and this is their chance to prove that to rest of the country.

The Warriors have thrown for 200 or more yards in four straight games, topping the 250 mark vs. Boise State last week. They're stepping down in class from last week and I expect them to find the end zone. Don't be surprised when this one proves much closer than many will expecting. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. This game, dubbed the "Shula Bowl" means a lot to each of these two "rivals." With FIU leaving the conference after the season, it arguably means more this season than ever.



FIU coach Mario Cristobal noted: "The rivalry games are the reason you play college football. They

I'm playing on MIAMI. Both teams lost last week. That marked the third straight loss for the Bills and the second straight for the Fish. However, because Buffalo's latest loss was "close," a cover at Foxboro, and Miami's was not, (blowout loss vs. Tennessee) the sentiment is that the Bills are currently playing much better football. While that was the case last Sunday, I don't believe that its been true of the season as a whole. Keep in mind that the Dolphins are 4-5 and the Bills are 3-6.

This line has climbed since it first came out, as bettors are backing the Bills as a slight favorite. I believe that's giving us excellent value. Last week's results have a lot to do with the line climbing. However, in my opinion, those results may actually favor Miami.

While the Bills deserve credit for playing the Patriots tough, a loss like that can be draining, as they really left it all on the field, also losing running back Fred Jackson along the way. Note that Buffalo followed up its previous loss to the Pats by losing 45-3 in its next game.

On the other hand, the only previous time that the Dolphins suffered a blowout loss was when the Texans beat them 30-10. (Their other three losses, prior to last week, all came by a field goal.) After getting blown out by Houston, the Dolphins bounced back with their most lopsided victory of the season, a 35-13 victory over Oakland.

The Bills are just 3-6-1 ATS the last few seasons as favorites, including 1-3-1 ATS as home favorites of three or less.

The Dolphins are 15-9 ATS the past few seasons as underdogs and that includes a perfect 5-0 ATS record as road underdogs of three or fewer points. They dominated the Bills last season and I won't be at all surprised when they beat them again tonight. *9

I'm playing on VIRGINIA. Prior to a loss here in 2010, the Cavaliers had enjoyed a long run of success against the Tar Heels here. I like how this one sets up for them.

Without a doubt its been a disappointing season for the Cavs. However, they've turned things around recently and now can become bowl eligible by winning out. That won't be easy as they'll need to win this one and also win at V-Tech in their finale. Either way, I expect them to view this as their "bowl game."

While next week's game against the Hokies is obviously a very big instate clash, this game represents Virginia's home finale and is a rare chance to play a home game in front of a national TV audience. (This is the first Thursday night game in Charlottesville since the Cavaliers hosted North Carolina back in 2006.) In order for next week's game to have true meaning, the Cavs know they need this one first. This is also the longest rivalry in the south, as the teams have met every year since 1919.

True, North Carolina is a fairly talented team. However, the Heels are reeling a bit at the moment, with two losses in three games. They gave up 68 points in losing to G-Tech last week and now make the change from the Jackets' option style offense to the Cavs 2-QB system, while doing so on a short week.

Note that the Tar Heels are 0-4 ATS on the road, losing outright at Wake Forest, Louisville and Duke, Their lone road win came by four point, a game in which they were laying 7.5.

UNC is giving up an average of 544 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play its last three games. Virginia is giving up an average of 283 yards in its last three. They both played NC State a couple of games ago, their most recent common opponent. The Tar Heels hosted the Wolfpack and won 45-35. The Cavs faced them on the road yet won 33-6. NC State got 534 yards vs. UNC but only 216 vs. Virginia. Take the points. *10

I'm playing on TOLEDO. I've successfully played against the Rockets in each of their last two games. In each case, I felt that they were laying too many points. Tonight, however, Toledo is the team which finds itself in the underdog role. I believe the value has now shifted and that the Rockets will now prove to be the correct side.

The Huskies certainly boast an impressive record, both SU and ATS. Frankly, its hard to say too many bad things about them. I really feel they're laying a few too many points here though. Keep in mind that this same team was only laying 10 as a host of Central Michigan earlier. When hosting Kansas, the Huskies were 7 point favorites. I believe that this Toledo team is much better than either of those teams, yet we're getting every more points to work with. Keep in mind that the Rockets were a Top 25 program only a week ago AND that they beat CMU by 15, as an 11.5 point favorite. Yet, now they're a bigger dog than the Chippewas were here.

While the Huskies have many impressive stats, lets not forget that the Rockets are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season. They've only lost two games all season and both losses came by seven points. This is a team which averages 490 yards per game on the road, while winning four of five. The Rockets lone road loss came at Arizona, a game in which they covered the spread.

The Rockets entered the season as a relatively inexperienced team. However, they've gotten it done all season long, while growing up along the way. I look for their "close game experience" to serve them well here, as they provide the Huskies with a much closer contest than many were likely expecting. *10

I'm playing on OHIO. I won with Ball State last game while also successfully playing against Ohio. In both cases, I backed an underdog which won outright. The Cardinals earned an upset win at Toledo while the Bobcats were upset by Bowling Green. Undefeated on the season not long ago, the Bobcats are now the team getting points. Once again, I feel the underdog is the team providing us with the value.



While they've been rolling lately, a look at the stats shows that the Cardinals have played their opponents very equally on the season. They're only outscoring teams by a slight 33.7 to 32.7 margin and their 470.5 yards per game is nearly identical to the 471.3 allowed. With the exception of a blowout loss at Clemson early in the season, every one of their games has been decided by a dozen points or less, six of them by eight or fewer, three by four or less.



The Bobcats have only lost twice all season and one of those losses came by only three points. They've played numerous close games, including three which were decided by a field goal.



Speaking of 3-point games, last year's meeting had a final score of 23-20.



While it was a successful road trip, Ball State is just 5-10 ATS its last 15 home lined games. The Cardinals are also 5-7 ATS as favorites the past few seasons, including an 0-2 ATS mark as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range.



During that stretch, the Bobcats were 6-3 ATS as underdogs, including 5-1 ATS as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. Off their only previous loss this season, the Bobcats responded with a 45-14 blowout win.



I expect them to bounce back with their best effort once again and for that to lead to at least a cover. *10

I'm playing on KANSAS CITY. I successfully played against the Chiefs in their last game. I like how this one sets up significantly better for them though. Of course, I also like the fact that the Chiefs are getting roughly twice as many points as they were last game.

Last time out, the Chiefs were playing a road game on the West Coast, while also playing on a short week. They're back on road this week. However, this time they've had plenty of extra preparation time and they're much closer to home. Their last game came on 11/1, so they've had plenty of extra time to return from the Coast and to try and work out some of their "issues," while game-planning for the Steelers.

While playing back to back road games can sometimes be tough for teams, note that the Chiefs won outright (at New Orleans) the only previous time that they were in that situation this season.

Admittedly, the Steelers are a tough opponent. I didn't get involved in their last game but I did successfully back them in their most recent home game, a blowout of the Redskins. I've also successfully played against the Steelers against some other AFC "bottom-feeders" this season though, as I backed both the Titans and the Raiders in their ATS victories over Pittsburgh this season. So, while I respect the Steelers, I also know that they can sometimes be over-valued and also that they don't always dominate these "non playoff" conference opponents the way many expect them to. In this case, even though its a Monday night TV contest, off a road win against the defending Superbowl champions, I feel they're ripe for a bit of a letdown. Keep in mind that they've got Baltimore up next, a game which will will have major implications on who wins the division.

It should be noted that Pittsburgh is a money-burning 10-23 ATS the last 33 times it was a double-digit favorite. Including the loss at Oakland, the Steelers are also 1-4 ATS their last five against AFC West opponents. Lets not forget that they're still banged-up, either.

You might be surprised to learn that the Chiefs are actually outgaining opponents this season, as they're averaging 358 yards, while allowing 347.5. That's even true on the road, where they're averaging 370.2 while allowing 367.2.

The Chiefs are 13-4-1 ATS the last 18 times that they were double-digit underdogs, including 6-3-1 ATS their last 10 as road underdogs in the 10.5 to 14 range. Last Thursday (11/1) I noted the following in the KC game, "....The Chiefs will surely cover a few games before the season is done. But not here..." I believe that now is the time. *10 AFC GOY

I'm playing on CHICAGO. Obviously these teams have both been very good. They each come in with 7-1 records, both of double-digit wins. I don't think we can ignore the fact that the Bears are playing at home though.

Really, this season's scoring numbers are too close to call. The Bears are 4-0 here and they're outscoring teams by an average of 25-14. The Texans are 3-0 on the road and have outscored opposing teams by a 27-16.3 margin. The Bears have been getting it done for years here though; they're 15-7 here the last few season. During the same stretch, the Texans are 10-10 on the road.

The weather is expected cool, windy and likely wet; conditions the Bears are more accustomed to. The Bears are 8-1 (7-1-1 ATS) their last nine November games. It may not be easy but I look for them to again find a way. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Most are going to like the defending champs in this one. Not only are the Giants known as a good road team, they're also off a loss last week. Most bettors won't believe that they can lose two in a row. I believe that sentiment has created excellent value with what I believe will be a highly motivated home underdog.



The Giants are off three straight hard fought games, all of which were decided by five or fewer points. The first two of those were divisional games (Dallas and Washington) and last year's was against Pittsburgh, one of the perennial powers in the AFC. The fact that they blew a fourth quarter lead in that one may be difficult to bounce back from. Also, off all those "big games" and with a bye followed by a playoff rematch vs. Green Bay on deck, looking past lowly Cincinnati could easily occur.



While teams do always want to fight for the best overall record, its not like the Giants are feeling any pressure in the division. Even off the loss last week, they didn't lose any ground. Every other team in the NFC East has lost at least two in a row and none of them have won more than three games on the season. The Giants have six.



On the other hand, the Bengals are essentially in a "must win" spot, if they want to keep their playoff hopes alive. The AFC Wildcard race remains wide open and the Bengals aren't quite out of it. However, another loss here and their already slim hopes would all but disappear. Backed into a corner, I expect the Bengals very best effort.



November has not been kind to the Giants, in the short or the long-term. With last week's loss, they're now 2-7 ATS (3-6 SU) in November the past few seasons. Going back further finds them at a money-burning 28-52-3 ATS their last 83 in November.



The Bengals are 5-3-1 ATS their last nine against non-conference games and 15-5 ATS their last 20 against teams from the NFC East. With their season on the line, I expect the Bengals to improve on those stats Sunday afternoon. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on CAROLINA. The Broncos are everyone's darling right now. I feel that this will be a very tough spot for them though. Denver is off a road game last week and will now be playing its fourth road game in the past five games. Playing their second straight on the road, facing a non-conference opponent and with a huge divisional showdown vs. San Diego on deck, I feel that the Broncos are in a very real letdown spot. Note that they're just 3-6-1 ATS against NFC teams the past few seasons.

The Panthers have come back to life in recent weeks. After nearly winning at Chicago, they followed it up by winning outright at Washington. Newton is starting to play better again and the defense has now held four straight opponents to 23 or fewer points, three of those teams scoring less than 20.

The Panthers have a lot to build on from last week. Newton didn't turn the ball over; they moved to 7-1 when he doesn't. He threw for a TD and he ran from one. Smith found the end zone. The defense held a high-scoring team to just 13 points. (Washington entered that game averaging 28.7 ppg at home.)

Manning is admittedly in great form. I don't expect him to have such a big day here though. Since getting lit up by Matt Ryan back in September, the Panthers have limited every passing attack to less than 300 yards, allowing an average if 212.3 their last four games.

Coach Rivera noted: "We've settled in defensively. We've found our intensity."

Note that the Panthers last four losses have come by an average of just a field goal, none of them coming by greater than five points. Expect them to give their guests all they can handle with an excellent shot at an outright win. *10

I'm playing on CALIFORNIA. Its always "scary" to go against a team like Oregon. The Ducks can and do score points quickly and they've been known to embarrass opposing teams, as well as the bettors that dare to play against them. You can't be a successful handicapper by being scared to play on or against any team though. In this case, I feel that the Ducks are simply laying too big a number.

The Ducks are off a hard-fought battle with USC last Saturday night. Having survived that test, they could easily experience a minor letdown. That's particularly true given that their next game is a big one vs. Stanford and that's followed by the Civil War vs. rival Oregon State.

On the other hand, the Bears are playing their home finale and don't have anything to "look ahead to" like their guests.

Some will mention that the Bears are without QB Maynard. Maynard was struggling though and I don't feel that his absence will be a negative.

Bridgford's stats weren't that good but I actually liked the way he threw the ball against Washington better than what Maynard was doing. Note that Bridgford also got the start against Nevada in the season opener, so he's got some snaps under his belt.

Bridgford had this to say: "It would be different if it were my first time playing a college football game but it's not. I've played a number of games. I've thrown a handful of passes. I'm not overly nervous. I'm just ready to have fun and waiting to have my shot."

Some may point to last year's 28-point victory by the Ducks. However, that game was at Oregon and the Bears actually led by a point at halftime.

The last game here at Berkeley, which was played in November of 2010 saw the Bears give the Ducks all they could handle. Oregon eked out a 15-13 win, aided by a punt return touchdown.

Oregon linebacker Michael Clay noted: "It was a dogfight. They missed a field goal, but it was a dogfight. It'll be another one down there."

The Bears are 4-2 ATS the last six times that they were listed as underdogs in the 21.5 to 31 range. I expect them to give the Ducks a scare, improving on those stats along the way. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on HAWAII. Knowing that they were upset in their last game, many will expect the Broncos to be angry and that they'll be looking to deliver a blowout. I'll agree as I'm sure that's exactly what the Broncos want to do. However, wanting to do something and actually doing it are entirely different matters.

While they have gone 2-0 SU, the Broncos are 0-2 ATS the past few years when coming off a conference loss. During that stretch, they're also a money-burning 3-5 ATS when listed as road favorites in the -21.5 to 31 range.

Note that with last week's loss, the Broncos are also only 3-6 ATS in November the past few seasons.

Already potentially distracted by last week's loss, now the Broncos have to make the long trip to Hawaii, where they could also be distracted by all the island of Oahu has to offer.

True, the Warriors have been pretty bad. In fairness, they've only played one home game since September. They had a new coach and were learning new schemes this season. They've had time to get it figured out now and should be thrilled to be back home, after playing four of their last five on the road.

The Warriors are 11-7 SU at home the past few years and only one of those seven losses (69-24 vs. Nevada earlier this year) came by greater than 27 points. I successfully played against the Warriors in that one but feel this one sets up much better for them.

Six of the Broncos' seven trips here, going back to 1996, have been decided by 15 or less, Hawaii winning three of those outright. Look for this one to also prove much closer than expected. *10 Mountain West GOY

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA. I believe that the Bears are in the wrong place at the wrong time here.

The Sooners haven't forgotten that the Robert Griffin III led Bears beat them last year. Keep in mind that Griffin, who threw for nearly 500 yards in last year's game, isn't around anymore though and that the Sooners are a perfect 10-0 against the Bears here at Norman.

The Sooners allow the fewest points (and yards) in the Big 12. Baylor's coach Art Briles said this of the Oklahoma defense: "They are good. They didn't wake up and just get good today; they have been good for a long time. They are very physical, very talented, and they are schemed up very well."

While the Sooners did lose games vs. K-State and Notre Dame, they've been crushing everyone else. (They're 5-0 against unranked team, winning by an average of 30.8 points per game.) Last week, they went on the road and won by 15 at Iowa State, outgaining the Cyclones by more than 300 total yards. (The Cyclones beat Baylor by a nearly identical margin in their previous game.) Back at home, I expect an even wider margin of victory here.

In addition to being winless at Norman, the Bears are 0-26 all-time on the road vs. Top 25 teams in Big 12 play. They're also 2-6 ATS the last eight times that they played a road game with an O/U line of 70 or greater. Meanwhile, the Sooners are 2-0 SU/ATS at home with an O/U line of 70 or more. I expect a blowout. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on MICHIGAN. The Wildcats are the higher seed. However, I believe that the Wolverines are favored by this many for good reason.

I believe that the Wildcats offense will prove too one-dimensional to win this game. Northwestern has a poor pass attack (ranked 113th in the country) and it will be up against one of the best pass defenses in the nation. That should allow the Wolverines to really focus on stopping the run; I expect them to have some success doing so.

With an O/U line in the low 50s, note that Michigan is 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven times that it played a home game with an O/U line ranging from 49.5 to 56.

The Wolverines won by 18 at Northwestern last season. Playing at home, I expect another double-digit victory. *9

I'm playing on UCONN. Admittedly, the Panthers have been a far more profitable team that the Huskies. While the Huskies have cost their supporters, the Panthers have lined their backers' pockets with cash. I feel that will change tonight though.

While this is an important game for them, the Panthers are in a possible letdown spot. They're off a heart-breaking OT loss vs. Notre Dame, the kind of defeat that can really be difficult to bounce back from.

While the Huskies' record certainly isn't too impressive, it could easily be better. Five of their last seven games have been decided by a touchdown or less.

Speaking of close games, the Panthers were favored by six points the last time that they played here; the Huskies won by two points.

Counting last week's game as a push, the Huskies are 5-1-1 ATS in November the past few seasons.

This is a "must win" game for the Huskies, as they need to "win out" to become bowl eligible. With their season on the line, I expect them to rise to the occasion, earning at least the cover and improving to 21-8-1 ATS the last 30 times that they played a home game with an O/U line in the 42.5 to 49 range. *9

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. The Colts are the hotter team and they've certainly exceeded expectations already. Suddenly, they're in the thick of the playoff race. That has them in unfamiliar territory. Not only are they now dealing with heightened expectations but they also find themselves laying points on the road. I expect that pressure to prove to be a little too much tonight and feel that the value lies with what I feel will be a highly motivated home underdog.

Obviously, the Jaguars have had a disappointing first half. They aren't about to pack it in though and a nationally televised game against a divisional opponent offers the perfect opportunity to prove that point.

Coach Mike Mularkey noted the following: "I'm disappointed that we are where we're at. I know the players are. I certainly know the fans are. I just want them to know how they feel, we feel the same way. We're mad, too, very disappointed we're in this position. But we have to get over that emotion and get ready for this next game and these next eight games and know that we are going to battle to try to get this thing right.''

Although homefield hasn't helped the Jags much this season, I like the fact that they're playing at home, for a game with a short week.

While they did get blown out by the Lions last time out, the Jags had quietly covered the spread in each of their previous two games. Even with the Detroit loss, they're still 9-5 ATS when coming off two or more consecutive SU losses.

Sure, the Colts are 3-0 SU/ATS their last three games. However, all three of those were decided by six or less, most recently a 23-20 win vs. Miami. The other teams (Cleveland and Tennessee) aren't much better than the Jags in the standings and the Colts certainly didn't blow them out. Even with those ATS wins, note that Indianapolis is still an ugly 2-10 ATS its last 12 against a team with a losing record.

The Jags have won three straight in the series and each of the 2012 meetings (1/1 and 9/23) were decided by six or fewer points. I won't be surprised if the Jags win outright again. I could also see it being decided in the closing minutes though and will happily grab the points. *10

I'm playing on V-TECH. The Seminoles are a talented team and they've been playing well. However, I still don't feel that they should be laying two touchdowns for a Thursday night game at Blacksburg.

Sure, the Hokies have lost two in a row. However, those were both on the road. Their last home game resulted in a 21 point victory. In fact, they're 4-0 at home on the season, 15-2 here the past few years.

Also, note that the Hokies are typically at their most dangerous when off back-to-back losses. They're 15-5 ATS their last 20 in that situation, including 2-0 SU/ATS the past couple of seasons.

During that stretch, the Seminoles were only 7-9 ATS when off two or more consecutive victories. Note that Florida State is 0-4 ATS the last four times it was a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 range.

Note that the Hokies last loss was a little deceiving, as they had a statistical edge at Miami.

Some may argue that the Seminoles have the advantage of coming off a bye. However, it should be noted that they're 0-2 following byes under Fisher.

Sure, the Seminoles are looking to improve on their impressive record and are looking to play in the ACC Championship game. The Hokies arguably need this game more though. They're trying to extend their string of 19 consecutive seasons with a bowl berth and they need wins in two of their next three to be eligible. Note that the Hokies have won 21 of 29 Thursday games and that they'd been 7-0 in November the past two seasons.

I expect Beamer to have his team fully ready and I look for AT LEAST a cover. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on BOWLING GREEN. I won with the visitor in last night's MAC contest and I'm going back with the road team here.
Similar to last night, these teams are battling to get to or stay in second in their respective decision. Last night, Ball State did NIU (the team on top of the West division) a favor by knocking off Toledo. Tonight, Bowling Green and Ohio try and avoid falling further behind East leading Kent State.
The Bobcats come in with the better overall record. They're 8-1 as opposed to Bowling Green's 6-3. However, both teams are 4-1 in conference play and its the Falcons who have the better record at the betting window. They're 6-3 ATS on the season as compared to Ohio's 4-5 ATS mark.
Records notwithstanding, I believe the Falcons are currently the better team. Admittedly, I'm someone that's a little biased towards a dominating defense. Still, check out these numbers.
Over the last five games, the Falcons have allowed a total of just 23 points, an average of less than five per game. They won 48-8, 24-10, 37-12, 24-0 and 24-3.
By comparison, the Bobcats have allowed 138 points over their last five games, an average of nearly 28.
Not surprisingly, Ohio has gone only 1-4 ATS its last five. Bowling Green, by comparison has gone 5-0 ATS. True, those results have kept the line down a bit. I still feel we're getting very fair value though.
Both teams beat up on lowly Eastern Michigan last time out. However, Ohio did so on 11/1 while Bowling Green did so on 10/27. (On 10/27, Ohio was busy losing outright at Miami Oh.) I believe that the extra preparation (and healing) time will serve the Falcons well here
Last year's game was decided by a single point, a 29-28 road win for Ohio. Don't be surprised when Bowling Green returns the favor. *10

I'm playing on BALL STATE. I successfully played against Toledo in its last game. The Rockets were playing Buffalo and I suggested that they would get a tough test. That proved to be the case, as they won by only five. While the Rockets are now back home, they're also facing a team which is better than Buffalo. Once again, I expect them to have their hands full.
Yes, the Rockets are in the Top 25. However, they just got in there and its the first time in more than 10 years. I expect that to serve as some added motivation for a strong Ball State squad, which now knows it has the opportunity to defeat a "ranked" program.
Ball State coach Pete Lembo noted: ''I did share with our team yesterday after practice about Toledo moving into the Top 25. That's a great thing for the MAC. We've got some terrific teams in the league this year. We're just excited to be in a position where this game has a lot of meaning to it at this point.''

While Toledo scores 36 (410.5 yards) points per game at home, the Cardinals average 36.4 (450.8 yards) ppg on the road. They should be able to trade punches with their hosts the entire way.

The Cardinals have won three straight games and are 5-2 their last seven. All seven of those games were decided by a dozen points or less and the lone road loss came by just two. The Rockets are off three straight victories of six or fewer points. I'm expecting another one with the Cardinals earning AT LEAST a cover and improving to 6-1 ATS the last seven times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range and 6-0 ATS the last six times that they played a road game with an O/U line in the 63.5 to 70 range. *9

I'm playing on DALLAS. I like the Falcons and am well aware that they're a very strong team, one which is off an impressive win and which is tough to beat at home. That said, I feel that Dallas is also a very talented team and I have a feeling that the Cowboys are going to rise to the occasion with their best effort.

The Cowboys are definitely off a tough loss. While that can sometimes be reason for a letdown, this Dallas team has no time for a letdown - their season is now essentially on the line every week. That may sound a bit over dramatic but in the competitive NFC, its essentially true.

With the Giants off to a 6-2 start, the 3-4 Cowboys know winning the division is not going to be at all easy. That's particularly true when considering that both the other teams in the East (Philly and Washington) also have three wins. Moreover, when teams like Green Bay (and Minnesota) have five wins already, yet are trailing in their own divisions, the Cowboys know that earning a Wildcard spot is also going to be extremely challenging.

So, no, I don't think saying that the "season is on line" is being over-dramatic.

Much will be made about the Cowboys' injuries on offense. However, I'd argue that Atlanta missing Sean Weatherspoon (second on team in both tackles and sacks) on defense, is at least as big.

True, the Falcons are 3-0 SU at home. However, they're only 1-2 ATS in those games, outscoring teams by only an average of a 26.7 to 23 margin. A closer look reveals that the Falcons have actually been outgained by an average of 404.7 to 329, in terms of total yards, in their three games here.

On the other hand, the Cowboys are outgaining their hosts by an average of 380.5 to 307 on the road.

I've always found that teams can get in a "habit" of playing close games. On that note, the Cowboys have seen each of their last three games decided by five points or less. Prior to last week, the Falcons had seen three straight games decided by seven or less, two of them decided by a field goal or less. I expect another close one with the Cowboys improving to 5-0 ATS the last five times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on OAKLAND. Both these teams check in with three wins in seven games. That has translated to a 5-2 ATS record for the Bucs but only a 3-4 ATS mark for the Raiders. Tampa's superior ATS record combined with the fact that the Bucs are off an impressive "TV" win (which has stayed in bettors' memories) has helped to keep this line in the pick'em range. I feel that getting the Raiders at less than a field goal at home is offering excellent value.
As noted, both teams have identical records. However, those records means entirely different things in the NFC as compared to the AFC. Stuck in the same division as the undefeated Falcons, the Bucs already know that the can't win their division. That means that they're competing for a Wildcard spot. That's a problem in the NFC because there are teams currently with better records (like the Packers and Vikings, both with five wins entering Sunday) competing against them.
In other words, the Raiders have a potentially easier path to the playoffs. Even at 3-4, they're right in the thick of things in the AFC.
Off two straight victories and with wins in three of the last four, the Raiders are playing with confidence. Coach Dennis Allen noted: "Yeah, I feel like our guys have confidence that they can go out and compete, that we can win football games. Like I told them, this is only important if you're able to go out and win the next one.''
Losing All Pro Carl Nicks to injury is a blow to the Bucs and they know it.
Coach Schiano acknowledged as much: "It's a tough loss - that's an understatement - when you have a guy of Carl's stature and ability that he brings to the field each week."
The Raiders have six sacks the last two games alone and Nicks' absence should make getting to Freeman easier.
While I won with the Bucs (and the over) when these teams met in the Superbowl, the Raiders are 6-1 when these teams have met in regular season action. I expect them to take the next step Sunday, climbing to .500 in the standings and improving to 7-3 ATS their last 10 against teams from the NFC. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on CINCINNATI. Peyton Manning has certainly been in top form of late. However, I like how this one sets up for the home team.



Cincinnati cornerback Leon Hall concurs: "No one gives us a chance after losing three games in a row and Denver is playing really well. You have to give it to them, but we like that position."



The Broncos have played a string of "high profile" games this month. They began October with a game against the Patriots, a Manning/Brady showdown. Next, was a big comeback in a nationally televised Monday night game at San Diego. That was followed by last week's showdown vs. the Saints, a game which was a Superbowl rematch between Manning and Brees, another nationally televised game.



Off all those "big games," its only natural to experience a small "letdown" against "lowly" Cincinnati. I expect that will prove costly.



The Bengals are still right in the thick of the AFC Wildcard race and they should be extremely motivated. They need this game more than the Broncos though; a loss here would be very costly. Not as much for Denver.



Coach Lewis noted: "I thought we were very, very good at stinking up October and we need to do a cleanse. We have an opportunity to fix a lot of the things that are ailing us right now, and that's what we've got to do.''



While the Broncos are off another "big game" last week, the Bengals had last week off. That bye came at the right time, as they'd lost a few in a row. Remember, this is a quality team, one which went to the playoffs last season.



While Manning has indeed been great, it should be noted that his thumb got banged last game. He noted: "It'll be sore, but I'm probably a little bit lucky."



These teams played last year. The game was at Denver and the Broncos were favored by three points. (They won by two.) Now, the Broncos are laying even more points, yet playing on the road. With all due respect to Manning, I feel that's giving us excellent value. I'll take the points but expect the Bengals to step up and score the outright win. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on LSU. I had Alabama in last year's championship game and I certainly still respect the Crimson Tide. That doesn't mean that I won't go against them when I feel that the value lies the other way though. I feel that's the case on Saturday.



Alabama did win 21-0 last January. However, lets not forget that the Tide were only very modest favorites in that game OR that the previous two games, each of which were played in the first week of November, were both decided by a field goal. LSU won 9-6 at Alabama on 11/5/2011. The previous year, the Tigers won 24-21, here in Baton Rouge.



True, Alabama has been blowing every opponent out while LSU has had some close wins. However, I would argue that the Tigers have played a tougher schedule AND that their "close game experience" could serve them well here. Keep in mind that LSU's last three games have come at Texas A@M, vs. South Carolina and at Florida. Alabama, on the other hand, has faced Miss. State, Tennessee and Missouri.



It should be mentioned that Alabama played last week while LSU is coming off a bye. Note that the Tigers are 3-1 SU/ATS off a bye the past few seasons.



During that time, the Tigers were also 4-2 ATS when listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. Over that time, Alabama was only 3-5 ATS as a favorite in the 3.5 to 10 range.



The Tigers enter Saturday's game with the nation's longest win streak at home; they've won a school-record 22 straight games here.

Coach Miles said this of his team's homefield advantage: "I can tell you that our team will look forward to playing in this stadium.There's no place like it. The environment that can be created in Tiger Stadium certainly will help the home team. Our guys play best in that stadium and in that environment. I think they'll look forward to playing in it. I imagine it will be pretty special."

The Tigers are allowing only 14.6 points per game. That makes beating them by a significant margin difficult. (Their lone loss came by 8 points.) I'm expecting a close one and am grabbing all the points that I can get. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on USC. Many bettors don't like going against Oregon. The Ducks are talented, aggressive and they tend to try and embarrass their opponents. While I certainly respect Oregon, I believe that the betting public's "fear" of the Ducks is leading to some excellent value with the talented home underdog here.



While the Trojans may not have an undefeated record, they are still extremely strong on both sides of the ball. This is a team that is loaded with talent and which entered the season with dreams of winning the National Title. QB Matt Barkley, one of 16 returning starters, turned down the NFL to play here this season.



A closer look at the Trojans' schedule shows that both of their losses came by seven points or less. They also both came on the road. The Trojans won their last two home games by a combined score of 77-16. Undefeated on the season here, they're outscoring teams by a 42 to 8.3 margin at home, outgaining them by a 473.7 to 288.3 margin here.



Those are actually better the Ducks' road numbers. Oregon is outscoring teams by a 47 to 23.5 margin on the road but only outgaining them by a 461.5 to 405 count.



While last week's loss was certainly disappointing and costly, the Trojans still have much to play for. QB Barkley had this to say:



"From here, we've just got to stick together. That's the beauty of football; you experience some of the most spurring moments of your life and you learn to cope with the moments like these."



The Trojans haven't been listed as underdogs since winning outright at Oregon last season. Including that cover, they're 13-6 ATS the last 19 times that they were getting points. I expect them to improve on those numbers with AT LEAST another cover on Saturday night. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on WYOMING. In the final weeks of the season, I often like to try and identify teams which are having a disappointing season but who I feel are in a good spot to get their home fans one last victory.



Last week, I played on Central Michigan in such a spot. The Chippewas had struggled but I felt that a game against a weak Akron team was the perfect recipe for them to provide the home faithful with a win.



Wyoming fits the bill on Saturday afternoon.



While they never expecting to be playing on New Year's Day or anything, the Cowboys have certainly not had the type of season that they were hoping for. Indeed, they're just 1-7 and 0-4 in conference play. Their lone win came on the road, at Idaho.



Remember, this was a team that went to a bowl game last year (and in 2009) and which had hopes to do so again.



A closer look shows that the Cowboys could easily have a much better record. Three of their seven losses came by a field goal or less, a total of six points. They also lost by only seven at Nevada (as 20 point underdogs) and by 20 at Texas in Week 1 (as 31 point underdogs). Their last two games have come vs. Boise State, at Fresno State vs. Air Force and at Nevada, four of the top five teams in the Mountain West.



A look ahead at their remaining schedule reveals that the Cowboys' next two games both come on the road and that their final game comes against San Diego State, a bowl team from last year, and another of the top five in the MWC.



In other words, a game against Colorado State definitely provides the best (and perhaps final) chance at earning a win for the home fans. The Cowboys know as much and I expect them to be fully focused on going all out and getting that elusive home win. In fact, not only do I expect them to win, I expect them to take out their frustrations and deliver a blowout.



True, the Rams won last week, their first victory in conference play. However, that was at home and it was against Hawaii, another team which is winless in MWC play.



While the score (42-27) says otherwise, that was actually a very fortunate win for the Rams. Indeed, they were outgained by a 393 to 291 margin. The Warriors had 25 first downs to the Rams 16. (Two fourth quarter interceptions thrown by Hawaii were returned for touchdowns.)



I don't expect the Rams to experience nearly that type of "good fortune" on the road. Every time that they've ventured outside of their state this season, they've lost by at least 20 points. They're 4-10 ATS (2-12 SU) their last 14 road line games. They last played here in 2010 and lost 44-0.



The Cowboys are 2-0 ATS against losing teams this year and 1-0 ATS the last few seasons as home favorites in the 7.5 to 10 range. I expect them to treat this like their bowl game and expect that to result in a double-digit win. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on ARMY. I like how this one sets up for the home underdog. The Falcons are off an upset win over Nevada. Many bettors backed the Wolfpack there. So, they're wary of going against Air Force now. Meanwhile, the Knights are 0-3 SU/ATS their last three. That has bettors wary to play on them. I feel that sentiment is providing us with excellent value.

The Knights obviously aren't one of the best teams in the country. However, they play hard and this game surely means a lot to them. Indeed, the Knights have lost six straight against Air Force. While they won't be going to a bowl, a win here would significantly raise the stakes for the annual showdown vs. Navy. I believe that the talent level between these two programs is closer than it has been in the recent past.

Note that Army covered the spread in last year's meeting and that the Knights actually had an edge in both first downs and total yards in that game.

The Falcons were indeed rather impressive against Nevada. However, lets not forget that they were 0-3 ATS in their previous three games, all three of them decided by seven or fewer points.

The Falcons are great in the underdog role but that's rarely the case when they're favored. In fact, they're an awful 7-16 ATS the past few seasons when laying points. Expect them to have their hands full the entire way on Saturday. *10

I'm playing on KENTUCKY. I've been involved with two Kentucky games this season, winning both. I successfully played against the Wildcats in their first game. They got killed by Louisville in that one. At the time, I mentioned that I expected to them to have a "long year."
Here's an excerpt from that first writeup: "... While its true that these type of "rivalry" games aren't always won by the team which is stronger on paper, in this case, I feel that the large line is justified. The Wildcats finished below .500 last season. A punchless offense was a big part of the problem. At less than 260 yards per game, they were 118th in total offense. While the Cats do return many of their skill players, scoring again figures to be an issue this season ... "
I went on to mention several other points, including how the Wildcats had recently been poor as road underdogs in the range that they were in.
Fast-forwarding six weeks, it wasn't until the Wildcats had begun the season by going 1-6 ATS that I finally found some value in playing on them. They were very large underdogs for their most recent home game (vs Georgia) and I felt that the line was generously high.
Here's what I suggested: "True, the Wildcats have been brutal. True, they're up against a powerful team. I feel that this will be a good spot for them though and they're offering us plenty of line value .... The Bulldogs followed up their loss at South Carolina by having a bye last week. The popular consensus will be that they'll be angry and that they'll look to dominate their over-matched guests. I'll agree that Georgia wants to do that. However, thats easier said than done. Off the first loss and a bye AND with a huge showdown against Florida on deck, I feel that it will be hard to focus on "lowly" Kentucky. Note that Georgia is 1-3 ATS the last four times it played with two week's rest and just 2-5 ATS the last seven times it was off a conference loss. This lowly Kentucky team lost by only nine points (as a 30.5 point underdog!) last season though. In fact, five straight series meetings have been decided by 13 or fewer points, Kentucky covering three of the last four. I look for this one to also prove closer than expected, the Cats improving to 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the 21.5 to 31 range .. "
Sure enough, the Cats played Georgia tough, EASILY covering the large spread. I didn't play on Kentucky last time out; the Cats resorted to their losing ways on the road, losing at Missouri. They've back home now though and playing a game which they feel they can actually win. Knowing that this is their final shot at a conference victory for the home fans (their only other home game remaining comes vs. Samford) I expect an extremely motivated effort from the Wildcats this Saturday afternoon.
Just as I felt the Bulldogs were in a tough spot when they faced the Wildcats, off a rare blowout win, I feel that the Commodores may also be in letdown mode. Of course, it doesn't much matter what their mindset, road wins are few and far between for the Commodores. They're only 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS in road lined games the past few seasons, going a dismal 25-78 SU since the early 90s. While Vanderbilt did manage an upset road win at Missouri, note that it came by just four points. It should also be noted that the Commodores are only 7-14 the last 21 times that they were off back to back SU victories.
Kentucky crushed Vanderbilt by a score of 38-20 when these teams met here two seasons ago. While much has changed, I won't be surprised at all if the 'Cats come out on top again. *9

I'm playing on MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE. I feel this teams are closer in talent than is being indicated by the pointspread and I'm expecting a close game.

Last year's meeting went to double-OT. The +10.5 point underdog Hilltoppers prevailed 36-33. The Blue Raiders had won the previous year's game, which was the most recent here at Western Kentucky, by a single point.

That 27-26 victory marked Middle Tennessee State's third straight win in the series. Prior to last year's thriller, the Hilltoppers had last beaten Middle Tennessee State way back in 2007. Just like last year, the Hilltoppers won that game by only a field goal.

The Blue Raiders come in off a momentum-builidng 38-21 victory over North Texas. That was a nice way to bounce back after getting blown out by an SEC team the previous game.

Prior to the loss at Mississippi State, the Blue Raiders' previous game had been at FIU. The Blue Raiders won that one by a score of 34-30.

Speaking of FIU, the Hilltoppers also just faced the Golden Panthers. While Western Kentucky did manage to "eke out" an 8-point win, a look at the stats shows that it wasn't easy.

The Panthers had an edge in first downs, (19-16) and an edge in total yards (342-289). The Hilltoppers scored a late TD (2:24 left) and then hung on for dear life as the Panthers got to their 33 and were thinking end zone.

Prior to that, the Hilltoppers had won their previous two games by just six combined points. So, that's three straight decided by eight or less.

While the Hilltoppers have indeed been an outstanding pointspread team in recent seasons, that's mostly been as underdogs. They've NEVER been listed as home favorites in the 7.5 to 10 range in recent years.

The Blue Raiders, on the other hand, are 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were listed as road underdogs in the 7.5 to 10 range. This is a team that went into Georgia Tech and won 49-28, as 24 point underdogs. I expect AT LEAST another cover on Thursday night. *10 Sun Belt GOY

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. Regulars know that I'm not opposed to backing "bad teams" like the Jaguars, Browns or Chiefs. In fact, I've successfully played on all of those teams this season. I was on KC the last time that the Chiefs covered the spread, a few weeks ago (on 10/7) vs. Baltimore. That was the only time I played on OR against the Chiefs this season. In order to back a "bad" team like the Chiefs, there need to a number of other situational factors in their favor. In this case, I feel they're in the wrong place at the wrong time.

The Chargers figure to be in an extremely foul mood. They were embarrassed by their loss at Cleveland. That was an "early" game for the Chargers and they may have overlooked the Browns and/or still been thinking about blowing opportunities in their previous two games, at New Orleans and vs. Denver, each of those "big TV games."

The Chiefs are a divisional opponent though and off three straight losses, the Chargers can't afford to look past anyone. Plus, this is another chance to get back on National TV and show the world that they're not a team which chokes in the second half each week.

While the Chiefs are a bad team, the Chargers are playing badly. There's a big difference.

KC's season is a write-off. However, San Diego's season is still very much alive. The Chiefs will surely cover a few games before the season is done. But here, they're on the road against an angry and desperate team.

While the Chargers did have to travel home from Cleveland, at least they've been able to sleep in their own beds; I feel the short week will work in their favor.

San Diego is in one of its best roles. The Chargers are 18-7 (21-4 SU) the last 25 times that they were listed as home favorites in the 7.5 to 10 range, 4-1 ATS (5-0 SU) their last five in that role.

The Chargers already crushed the Chiefs (37-20) at Arrowhead, improving to 8-2 SU the last 10 in the series. The Chargers have won four straight and seven of eight against the Chiefs here. Two of their last three home victories against KC have come by a minimum of 29 points. They're 6-3 ATS the last nine against the Chiefs here and 13-7 ATS the last 20. I expect another convincing win and cover. *9

I'm playing on PITTSBURGH. Robert Griffin III has certainly proven to be the "real deal," at least for his first couple of months in the league. I'm not ready to call him the best in the league or anything yet though. More importantly, I'm not at all sold on his team's defense.

The Redskins are allowing 28.6 points per game on the season, which puts them in the bottom five of the league. The Saints are the only NFC team which is currently allowing more points. The Skins' 328.4 passing yards allowed per game (worst in the NFL) figures to have Roethlisberger licking his chops.

By comparison, the Steelers are allowing only 12 points per game at home, permitting a mere 232.5 yards per game here.

Speaking of that notorious Pittsburgh defense, I played on the Steelers in their preseason win over the Colts. I normally wouldn't mention preseason - but one of the same reasons why I liked the Steelers in that game is one of the reasons why I like them again here.

This is a Dick Lebeau led defense. Just as they "got up" for a game against Luck, when he was "all the rage," they'll take pride in shutting down Griffin. (Luck would finish that game with 0 TD passed vs. 2 INTs, as the Steelers jumped out to a 14-0 lead when the starters were in the game.)

True, the Steelers are without Polamalu still. However, that's become "normal" for them. While you'll hear about it a lot, with Big Ben picking apart the porous Washington secondary, I'm not overly concerned about Mendenehall's absence either.

Speaking of Roethlisberger, note that he's an outstanding 14-1 all-time at home against NFC teams, including 6-0 the last six. He's got eight touchdowns against zero interceptions in those six games, compiling an extremely impressive QB 101.3 rating. Just as the Pitt. D will be looking to shutdown Griffin, Big Ben should be anxious to outplay him, in front of the Pittsburgh fans.

Keep in mind that the Skins are playing their second straight road game. I successfully played against them the only previous time that they were in that spot; they lost outright at St. Louis.

They'll be up against a Steelers team which is undefeated at home so far this season and which is now 16-4 SU and 13-7 ATS its last 20 here.

The Steelers are in one of their best roles here; they're 45-22 ATS (54-12 SU) the last 67 times that they were listed as home favorites in the -3.5 to -7 range.

While the Skins are off a heartbreaker, the Steelers put it all together in the second half last week, a game they can build momentum from. I expect them to do just that, covering the small number along the way. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on PHILADELPHIA. The Falcons have been better than the Eagles thus far. However, I would argue that the Eagles victories over the the Ravens and Giants were at least as impressive as any of Atlanta's wins.

Both teams are off a bye. With the Falcons undefeated and the Eagles off back to back tough losses, the time off likely came at a better time for Philadelphia.

Of course, you've probably heard that the Eagles are very good off a bye. Indeed, they're 22-3 and 18-7 ATS the last 25 times that they were off a bye, including a perfect 13-0 SU under Reid.

I did successfully make a big play on the Falcons when they hosted the Eagles last year. At the time, I mentioned something about Atlanta having become Ryan's city. The rematch is in Philadelphia though and I look for Vick and the desperate Eagles to have their revenge. *9

I'm playing on WASHINGTON. The Beavers check in with a Top 10 ranking an an undefeated record. I expect their undefeated streak to come to an end Saturday night though.

The Huskies may have four losses. However, only one of those losses came in their home state and that resulted in a cover vs. USC. Keep in mind that in addition to game against the Trojans, the Huskies have already played road games at LSU and at Oregon. Practically no team in the country is going to win those games, so an 0-2 record there doesn't mean much of anything. Also, keep in mind that the Huskies beat Stanford. That's arguably as impressive as any victory that Oregon State has had all year.

Oregon State is expected to get its starting QB back. However, with the backup having guided them to back to back victories, that isn't necessarily an upgrade. Mannion may have some rust. Keep in mind that he had surgery to repair the meniscus in his left knee less than three weeks ago.

Coach Riley acknowledged it wasn't an easy decision about which QB to go with: "It was difficult. Cody has played well and Sean has played well. I just kind of took it back a little bit further to the initial competition. Sean had played four games and played well so we decided to go with him. But it was not easy."

I believe that this will prove to be a difficult scheduling spot for the Beavers. They're off a hard-fought win over Utah, one which made them become bowl eligible. The Beavers may have won that game but they were actually outgained by a fairly wide margin, only gaining 226 total yards of offense. While this team now has bigger goals, a small letdown, after having become bowl eligible would be natural. Remember, this team was 3-9 last season and was expected to struggle again this year.

Riley knows the Huskies are going to be hard to beat and acknowledges that they've played a far more difficult schedule than his Beavers. He said this of the Huskies: "We know they're very talented and very, very capable. They beat a real good Stanford team and they've kind of played murderer's row here, they've played LSU and USC and Oregon (and) Stanford so we're expecting another tough Pac-12 game."

The Huskies, 3-2 ATS the past few seasons, when off back-to-back losses, are in one of their better roles here. They're 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they were home underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range.. During the same stretch, the Beavers were only 2-5-1 ATS as road favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range.

With the last meeting here being decided by a single point (35-34 Washington) I'll gladly grab the points. However, as I noted at the beginning, I see the Beavers suffering their first loss here. *10 Pac 12 GOY

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO STATE. Laying this many points on the road, obviously the Bulldogs are the "better" team. Indeed, they're an impressive 6-1 while the Aggies are a dismal 1-6. That said, I feel this number will prove to be too high.

While the LA Tech offense is certainly impressive, note that the defense is giving up 38 points per game and 519.6 yards per game. On the road, those numbers climb all the way to 42.5 and 580. The Bulldogs have given up AT LEAST 24 points in every single game this season.

As for the Aggies, they're only getting outscored by a 27 to 25.7 margin at home. While they won't be able to stop them, the Aggies do have some weapons on offense and should be able to score points against the weak LA Tech defense.

The Bulldogs did win by 42 (70-28) last week. However, that was at home and it was the first time all season that they won by more than 28 points.

The Aggies did lost by 34 last week. However, that was on the road against a tough Utah State team and it was the first time all season that they lost by more than 27 points. They're 1-2 at home and neither loss came by more than 21.

LA Tech Coach Sonny Dykes said this of the Aggies: "They have lost a couple of tough games this year. Their record is probably not where they think it could be or where it definitely could be based on them losing a couple of tough ones. Anyway, they are a good football team and I know it is their homecoming and they will be excited to play against us."

I'm plugging my nose and grabbing all the points I can get. *9

I'm playing on HAWAII. Neither of these teams have fared too well on the season. In fact, each has just one victory. The Warriors pounded Lamar in Week 2 while the Rams beat instate rival Colorado (by five) to begin the season.

While beating Colorado may be more impressive than beating Lamar (although that's even debatable given that Hawaii won 54-2, while CSU won 22-17) a look at the rest of the schedule shows that the Warriors have had to contend with the likes of USC, Nevada, San Diego State and BYU. They did get to face New Mexico, a game they lost, but that was their only legit chance at a win. The Rams also faced San Diego State (like Hawaii, they got blown out) but their other opponents have arguably been a little easier. They hosted North Dakota State and lost that one by 15 points.

The Rams can't run the ball and they're banged-up at QB. Averaging 11 points (and 274.3 yards) on this field, makes winning difficult, let alone covering a large number.

I don't feel home field offers much of an advantage; the Rams haven't won here yet this season. The travel from Hawaii isn't a factor either, as both teams had last week off. Bottom line is I don't feel the Rams currently deserve to be laying this many points against any 1-A opponent. *9

I'm playing on FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL. I feel this one sets up nicely for the home underdog. These teams have much different records but I don't feel the talent gap between them is that wide.

True, Florida International enters on a losing streak and has had a disappointing season. However, the Panthers are better than their record shows and they haven't quit fighting. Their last two losses have come by a combined five points.

For the season, the Panthers are averaging a respectable 28 points per game at home, on a healthy 407.5 yards. Those are much better numbers than Western Kentucky (22 ppg & 319.7 ypg) can boast of on the road, although in fairness a shutout loss at Alabama had a big effect on those numbers.

FIU QB Jake Metlock missed two games with an injury. He's healthy now though and is arguably as good as any QB in the conference. Indeed, Metlock has thrown for more than 253 ypg game with nine touchdown passes and only one interception. Last week, he lit up Troy with three touchdown passes a week ago, throwing for 300-plus yards for the third time this season.


Meanwhile, the Hilltoppers are off a 1-point loss of their own, their second straight game decided by five or fewer points.

While the Panthers have gotten used to losing, last week's loss is likely going to be a difficult one for the Hilltoppers to put out of their minds. They blew a fourth quarter lead and lost in OT. That snapped a 9-game conference winning streak. I feel it may well be tough to re-focus on lowly FIU.

Speaking of close games, last year's game, which was played at Western Kentucky, saw the Hilltoppers win by a score of 10-9. The previous year's game, played here, saw the Panthers win by 28-21. Don't be surprised to see an upset here. *9

I'm playing on CENTRAL MICHIGAN. Some of you may recall that I successfully played against the Chippewas a couple of weeks ago. They were hosting Navy and I suggested that they would be vulnerable against Navy's running attack. That proved to be the case as the Chippewas lost 31-13 and gave up 238 yards on the ground. They followed that up with a double-digit loss against Ball State, another team which gashed them for more than 230 yards on the ground. This week's opponent, however, doesn't have nearly as potent a ground game. Akron averages almost exactly half the rushing yards that Navy does, 117.6 as opposed to 235.3. Last game, the Zips rushed for a mere 42 yards on 37 carries.

While the Midshipmen were coming in off a momentum-building win when I played on them, the Zips are off a demoralizing 37-7 loss, their fifth straight. Note that all five losses during their current skid have come by a minimum of six points.

Also, keep in mind that the Zips' only win all season came at home against 1AA Morgan State. Akron had a 753-200 edge in total yards in that game. Take out that game from their stats and the Zips stats are terrible.

Granted, Central Michigan hasn't been too good either. A win at Iowa is far more legit than anything that the Zips have accomplished though.

The Zips were expected to be bad. They were the worst team in the MAC last year, had a new coaching staff this year and very few returning starters.

On the other hand, the Chippewas were counting on being improved this season, as they returned 16 starters and lost the fewest amount of lettermen from last season in the MAC.

While Central Michigan won by only one point (CMU was up 20-0 at one point) at Akron last season, take note that the Chippewas were laying seven points on the road in that one. Now, we get a more experienced Central Michigan team, playing a less experienced Akron team AND the Chippewas are at home, yet we're laying less than a touchdown.

While a win for the Zips would be "nice," I would argue that the Chippewas need this one far more. A loss in this game and the program will be in need of wholesale changes.

Obviously, the Chippewas aren't what they were a few years ago but I still feel they'll have enough to take care of this weak Akron team. I expect a convincing win for the more talented and hungrier home team. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on BUFFALO. Off an upset of their highly ranked instate "rival" (Cincinnati) I feel that this will prove to be a tough spot for Toledo.

While the Rockets may be patting themselves on the back and potentially looking ahead to Ball State, the Bulls should be very hungry. They were fairly competitive against a Big East team themselves last time out, limiting Pittsburgh to 20 points. Prior to that, the Bulls had played three straight tough road games. Remember, this team opened with a road game at Georgia, too, playing the Bulldogs tough much of the way. So, the schedule has been no walk in the park.

Note that two of Buffalo's losses came by seven or fewer points, both games in which the Bulls covered.

Meanwhile, the Rockets check in at 0-2 ATS the last two times that they were listed as road favorites in the -7.5 to -10 range.

Note that each of Toledo's last two games have been decided by six points or less. For the season, the Rockets have seen four of their games finish with a margin of seven or fewer points.

While it was a few years back now, the Bulls beat Toledo the last time the teams met here. I have a feeling they do it again Saturday afternoon. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on Iowa. Both teams lost last week. It may sound funny to some but I feel that the Hawkeyes' "blowout loss" (38-14) will be easier to bounce back from than the Wildcats' heartbreaking 29-28 setback vs. Nebraska, a game the Wildcats led by double-digits in the fourth quarter.
Off a blowout loss, a well-coached team like Iowa usually has the full attention of its players. "Devastating" losses like Northwestern's can be harder to forget though.
Its also worth noting that Northwestern is only 4-7 SU/ATS the past few seasons off a conference loss. During that time, Iowa is 5-2 ATS and 5-3 SU off a conference loss.
Even off last week's loss, Iowa is still only allowing 20.1 points per game. On the road, the Hawkeyes are permitting a mere 16.5 ppg, giving up a paltry 264.5 yards. Beating a team by a wide margin that has that type of stout defense is a difficult task.
While the Hawkeyes won by 10 at Iowa last year, the most recent game here at Northwestern was decided by only four points, a 21-17 final. I won't be surprised to see a similar type of score here, one which could easily go Iowa's way, and am grabbing the points. *9

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. The Bucs came in here early last September and embarrassed the Vikings in front of their home fans. The Vikes were up 17-0 at halftime but saw Tampa come all the way back to beat them. The Vikings were booed off the field as time expired in that game. That was a struggling Minnesota team which fell to 0-2 under Donovan McNabb, the QB at the time. The Vikings are playing with far more confidence now though and I expect them to get some payback.

After last year's game, Minnesota star running back Adrian Peterson said the following: "Wow. You're not supposed to give away a game like that."

It should be noted that AP had 25 carries for 120 yards and two touchdowns in the first half alone, of last year's game.

Off a game in which he had 153 yards on 23 carries, Peterson should be poised for another big day. The rest of the Vikings are also playing with MUCH more confidence than they were, entering last week's Week 2 matchup with Tampa. The same cannot be said of the Bucs, who have gone 5-15 SU and 7-13 ATS since the win here last season, 0-9 SU and 3-6 ATS on the road.

Playing at home in a short week is certainly an advantage - home teams have won five of six Thursday games this year. Also, note that five of six Thursday games have been decided by a minimum of a touchdown.

Of course, playing at home has been a big advantage for the Vikes, regardless of the day of the week. They're 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in four home games this season, outscoring opponents by a commanding 25.2 to 14.2 margin. They're averaging 5.7 yards per play here while visiting teams are averaging less than three.

The Bucs, who are off a tough divisional loss last time out, are 0-2 SU on the road. While they did manage to cover in those games, both losses came by at least six points. A look at the stats shows that the Bucs were rather fortunate to "keep it close" in their two road games. They were outgained by an average margin of a whopping 450.5 to 236.5 in those games. While Tampa averaged 4.6 yards per play in those games, opposing teams averaged 6.5.

The Bucs are 3-7-1 ATS off a divisional game the past few seasons, 1-4-1 ATS off a divisional loss. Don't expect those stats to get any better against the revenge-minded Vikes on Thursday night. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on DETROIT. At 4-1, the Bears have gotten off to a better start than the 2-3 Lions. I believe that's helped us in a couple of ways. For starters, the line is larger than it would have been, if the records were reversed. (The Bears were only -3 when the teams played here last season.) Also, I believe that sub-500 record may have the Lions playing with a little more urgency.

When looking at the schedules, its important to note that the Bears have had a pair of home games against the Rams and Colts and that one of their road games came at Jacksonville. The Lions also hosted the Rams. However, their other four games were all against arguably more difficult opponents (49ers, Eagles, Vikings, Titans) than the Colts or Jags.

In other words, if the schedules were reversed, the Bears may not necessarily have the better record, the way they currently do. Yet, the record is a big reason why the line is so much larger than it was for last season's game here.

Speaking of the higher line, note that the Bears are only 2-4 ATS the last six times that they were listed as home favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range. During the same stretch, the Lions were 4-2 ATS as road underdogs in the 3.5 to 7 range.

The Bears had been rolling, so their bye may not have come at the most opportune time. Meanwhile, the Lions are off a momentum-building victory. Trailing by 10 with roughly five minutes remaining they rallied for an improbable win at Philadelphia. That's the type of victory a team can really build off and I expect the Lions to do just that.

Coach Jim Schwartz noted this after last week's game: "I think it was a big step for us as a team, playing team football today and it was a lot of spirit and guys picking each other up. I think that's a good sign of things to come for this team."

Lovie Smith knows that Lions will be ready He noted: "Detroit, this week ... I'm sure they've been waiting for this game for a long time."

With last week's victory, the Lions are now 13-6 ATS their last 19 games played in the month of October, including 8-2 ATS since 2010. I expect AT LEAST another cover Monday night. *10

I'm playing on JACKSONVILLE. I like how this one sets up for the visitors. The Raiders are off a great effort at Atlanta last week. Unfortunately, for Oakland fans, that great effort still resulted in a loss. Now, after having left everything on the field, the Raiders had to travel back across the country, still thinking about what might have been.

I actually like this Raiders team (won with them when they beat Pittsburgh) and feel that they're often under-valued. I don't believe that's the case here though. Indeed, with the line having climbed from its opener, the Raiders being asked to lay nearly a touchdown here.

Lets not forget that this team has just one victory and that it came by three points.

Keep in mind that Oakland is just 4-7 ATS as a favorite the past few seasons, 0-2 ATS already this year.

While they sometimes get up for "good teams," note that the Raiders are a dismal 27-61-1 ATS their last 89 against teams with a losing record, 4-6 ATS their last 10.

Unlike their hosts, the Jaguars had last week off. Coming off a 41-3 loss vs. Chicago, the time off surely came at a good time. Note that the Jags are 2-0 ATS off their last two bye weeks, going 7-4 ATS during that time when off two or more consecutive SU losses.

Getting away from the home fans, off that debacle is probably a good thing too. After all, the Jags have been blown out in all three home games but have been very competitive (won at Indy, lost by 3 at Minny) in both their road contests. I expect another close one and am grabbing all the points I can get. *9 Best Bet

I'm playing on the NEW YORK GIANTS. The defending world champs are 3-1 their last four games. All three victories came by double-digits, most recently a 26-3 win at San Francisco. Yet, they continue to get very little respect. While all four of this season's victories have come by at least seven points, the Giants are being asked to lay less than a touchdown. I feel that's providing us with excellent value.

Griffin and the Redskins are off to a fairly impressive 3-3 start. However, this is their first divisional game and it comes on the road against a very talented Giants team that is playing very well and which should be very hungry.

Off the big win at SF and with a revenge game vs Dallas on deck, if it was an opponent other than Washington, the Giants could be in danger of looking ahead. However, Washington is a divisional opponent that will be tied with them if the Giants aren't careful. The fact that the Skins beat them in both last season's meetings should provide some extra motivation, as will the fact that the Giants are off to an 0-2 start against NFC East teams. I also think the champs will be determined not to let a rookie QB in their own division come into their house and beat them in his first divisional start.

Both these teams average 29.7 points per game, although the Giants' 414.7 ypg (458.3 at home!) is a little better than the Skins' 394.8 yards per game.

Its on the other side of the ball where the champs really have the edge though. The Giants check in allowing only 19 points per game, just 16.3 their last three games. On the other hand, the Skins are allowing an ugly 28.8 points per game.

With Safety Brandon Meriweather missing his fourth straight game with a knee injury, note that Washington's pass defense ranks last in the entire NFL, allowing more than 328 passing yards per game.

With an O/U line in the low 50s, note that the Giants are 5-1 ATS the last six times that they played a home game with an O/U line of greater than 49 points.

Prior to last season, the Giants had beaten the Skins six straight times. I expect them to resume that dominance on Sunday afternoon, covering the relatively small number along the way. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on UTAH. If you've followed my picks in recent seasons, you'll know that I've had considerable success backing the Utes as an underdog. Getting double-digits, I feel the Utes offer excellent value again on Saturday night.

The Beavers have certainly gotten off to an impressive start; a win Saturday night will give them their first 6-0 start in more than 100 years. They lost their starting QB and had to go with a backup (Cody Vaz) last week - and they still didn't miss a beat.

Still, keep in mind that Vaz hadn't made a start since high-school, prior to last week. Life isn't usually perfectly smooth for new QBs; an initial strong performance can often be followed by a shaky one.

Likewise, a mediocre performance in a QB's first start (like Travis Wilson's debut as the Utes starter) can be followed by an improved effort with his game under his belt.

Basically, what I'm trying to say, is not to over-react to one start from a QB.

Utah coach Kyle Whittingham said this of Travis Wilson: Right now Travis is our guy. We are pleased with his initial performance. We don't want him playing on eggshells. There is a fine line - we talk about being competitive and we need him to perform, but at the same time he has to know that we have confidence in him and what we saw in that game we have confidence in him that he will continue to perform."
The Utes have won four of five in this series, including a 27-8 win last season. The Utes didn't pass the ball well in that game but they didn't need to. Instead, they outgained the Beavers by a 225-32 margin on the ground. Keep in mind that this year's Utah team returned 16 starters from that team. They expected to be even stronger this year. While they're down their starting QB, this is still an experienced team.

The Beavers are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season but 0-1 ATS when laying points. They're five wins have come by a total of just 44 points. Going back further finds them at 2-7 ATS the past few seasons, as favorites.

Meanwhile, the Utes are 3-1 ATS as underdogs this season, improving to 50-27-1 ATS the last 78 times that they were getting points. They're 2-4 on the season (3-3 ATS) but only one of their four losses came by more than 10 points.

A well-coached team, the Utes are 3-0 ATS the past few seasons, when off two or more consecutive SU losses. The Utes know that they've got some winnable games on deck and that a win here would serve as a springboard for the rest of the season. I expect them to keep it close with an excellent shot at scoring the outright upset. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on KENTUCKY. True, the Wildcats have been brutal. True, they're up against a powerful team. I feel that this will be a good spot for them though and they're offering us plenty of line value.

The Wildcats are getting nearly four touchdowns at the betting window here. To put that line in perspective, its by far the biggest pointspread that the Wildcats have seen this year, even though they've played at road venues like Louisville, Florida and Arkansas.

The most that they've lost by at home is 21 points; they were 20 point underdogs vs. South Carolina in that game.

Now, they're getting roughly an extra touchdown against a Georgia team which just got blown out 35-7 by those same Gamecocks.

The Bulldogs followed up their loss at South Carolina by having a bye last week. The popular consensus will be that they'll be angry and that they'll look to dominate their over-matched guests.

I'll agree that Georgia wants to do that. However, thats easier said than done. Off the first loss and a bye AND with a huge showdown against Florida on deck, I feel that it will be hard to focus on "lowly" Kentucky.

Note that Georgia is 1-3 ATS the last four times it played with two week's rest and just 2-5 ATS the last seven times it was off a conference loss.

This lowly Kentucky team lost by only nine points (as a 30.5 point underdog!) last season though. In fact, five straight series meetings have been decided by 13 or fewer points, Kentucky covering three of the last four. I look for this one to also prove closer than expected, the Cats improving to 3-1 ATS the last four times that they were underdogs in the 21.5 to 31 range. *9

I'm playing on IDAHO. The Bulldogs have had a great season. However, they're in a difficult spot and I don't feel that they'll be able to cover such a large number.

Last week, LA Tech suffered its first loss of the season, a 59-57 heartbreaker vs. Texas A@M. Note that game was originally supposed to be played on Aug. 30, but was postponed because of Hurricane Isaac.

Its often difficult for a team to bounce back from its first defeat, particularly when that team wast starting to have dreams of an undefeated season.

It can be even harder to recover when that first loss was of the "heart-breaking" variety. Having rallied all the way back from down 27 to pull within two, I'd call last week a heartbreaker.

Louisiana Tech coach Sonny Dykes said: "I was proud of the way they fought. But we came here to win. There are no moral victories here."

Again, I feel that it will be difficult to be fully focused, after that type of loss.

Six of the last seven meetings, including each of the last three, were decided by less than two touchdowns. With the Bulldogs still thinking "what if," I look for this one to also prove closer than many will be expecting. *9

I'm playing on FLORIDA. Some are surprised by the Gators' fast start. This is a talented and experienced team though. I still don't feel that they're getting enough credit here.

Thsi is a team which checks in at 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. They've won on the road at venues like Texas A@M, Tennessee and Vanderbilt, the latter two of those road wins coming by double-digits.

Beating up on Kentucky 38-0 wasn't that big a deal. However, beating LSU by eight points was significant.

The Gators are confident and realizing that the sky is the limit for them. They're also getting healthier.

Center Jon Harrison, left tackle Xavier Nixon and guard James Wilson are all expected to return. Linebacker Jelani Jenkins will also likely return and defensive end Dominique Easley is expected to be do the same.
On the other hand, the Gamecocks are banged-up. Most importantly, Spurrier has said that Marcus Lattimore may not play and that Kenny Miles is expected to start. Even if Lattimore is available, he's likely to be at less than 100%.

Note that Miles hasn't been very effective in limited action, averaging only 3.7 yards per carry with just one touchdown. A senior, Miles hasn't averaged more than four yards per carry since his freshman season in 2009.

In addition to Lattimore, other significant players dealing with some health concerns include defensive end Jadeveon Clowney and defensive tackle Kelcy Quarles. While Clowney is currently probably, Quarles is listed as doubtful.

The Gamecocks are a talented team and they're off to an impressive start. Last week's loss figures to be a bit tough to immediately shake off though, as they were starting to entertain thoughts of an undefeated season. When a team actually believes an undefeated season is possible, losing that first one can be difficult to bounce back from.

While the Gamecocks won here in 2010, the Gators have still dominated them here in The Swamp. I expect them to resume that domination Saturday afternoon, covering the small number along the way. *9

I'm playing on NEW MEXICO STATE. Utah State is having a great season and has been one of the most profitable teams around. However, its not a team accustomed to laying anywhere close to this many points.

The largest previous pointspread that Utah State was asked to lay was 22 vs. UNLV. They won that game by exactly 22 points. They did beat the Southern Utah Thunderbirds by 31, a game that they were favored by 21 for. Southern Utah is a 1AA team though. Now, Utah State is being asked to lay an extra 10 points against a 1A team.

Keep in mind that New Mexico State hasn't lost by more than 27 points all season.

Also note that New Mexico State, which is coming off a bye, is 8-2 ATS in October the past few seasons and that New Mexico State has played Utah State tough in recent seasons.

In fact, the last three meetings have ALL been decided by five points or less, New Mexico State goig 3-0 ATS. Last year's game had a final score of 24-21. It was 27-22 the previous season and New Mexico State won outright 20-17 in 2009.

Utah State has not been a strong favorite and I look for this one to prove closer than expected once again. *9

I'm playing on OKLAHOMA STATE. Regulars will recall that I successfully backed Iowa State in this matchup last year. The Cyclones were roughly 4-TD underdogs in that game and they won outright. Last year's game set up very nicely for the Cyclones. I feel that this one sets up very nicely for the Cowboys though and I expect a vastly different result from last year.

Here's an excerpt from last year' playing on Iowa State: "...with all due respect to the Cowboys, I feel this line will prove to be too high. Off back to back wins, the Cyclones are arguably playing their best football right now. One of those victories was a 41-7 destruction of Texas Tech - so, the Cowboys weren't the only team to blow out the Red Raiders recently. The Cyclones have allowed only 17 total points their last two games and they've ran the ball for more than 600 yards in those games. They won't be able to "shut" down the Cowboys but that's at least the right formula for "slowing" them down. Off a bye, they've had plenty of extra time to prepare for this dangerous attack. The Cowboys are playing the second of b2b road games here. Off such a huge blowout and with a bye and then Oklahoma, their biggest game of the year, on deck - they could easily get caught looking past the Cyclones here. Iowa State, on the other hand, is playing its home finale. Given the situation and that the Cyclones haven't lost by more than 23 at home all year (they've hosted the likes of Iowa, A@M and Texas) and with this number having climbed from its already high opener, I feel that we're getting excellent value with the home underdog ... "

While the line is roughly half what it was last season, the Cowboys are now playing at home. Obviously, the Cyclones will have their full attention. After all, last year's loss spoiled their dreams of an undefeated season. Throw in the fact that its an important game in the Big 12 standing AND that a win will vault Mike Gundy past Pat Jones for the most wins in Oklahoma State history AND there are plenty of reasons for the Cowboys to really want this one.

Perhaps due in part to the fact that they were off a disappointing loss to Texas and perhaps partly due to the fact that they were looking ahead to this week's game, the Cowboys didn't cover last time out. They did still win though (20-4 at Kansas) which should give them their positive momentum and swagger back.

On the other hand, the Cyclones are off a tough loss against K-State in their last game. They had a chance to pull the upset in that game and that would have gone a really long way in making this season special. To come close only to eventually fall short can be tough.

Last time, remember, the Cyclones were playing their home finale and were off back to back wins. This time, not only is Iowa State off a loss but Oklahoma State is playing its homecoming game. In other words, the situation is entirely different from what it was last season.

Even with last week's ATS loss, the Cowboys are a terrific 7-2 ATS (8-1 SU) in October the past few seasons. During that time, they're 19-8 ATS (24-3 SU) when laying points, including a 5-2 ATS (7-0 SU) mark as home favorites in the 10.5 to 21 range. I expect the revenge-minded Cowboys, who destroyed the Cyclones in the last meeting here, to improve on that stat in convincing fashion. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on UCONN. The Huskies are a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS in this series the past five seasons. While the Orange would surely love to snap that losing streak, I don't feel that they're currently playing well enough to be laying more than a field goal.

Both teams have losing records. Both are off a loss. Both have also shown a tendency to play close games.

The Huskies are off a 3-point loss vs. Temple. It marked the fifth time in their last six games that the final score was decided by a touchdown or less. Only one team (Rutgers) has beaten them by more than six points all season.

Syracuse lost by eight last time out. The 2-4 Orange have just one win by more than one point. That was a 28-17 victory against 1-AA Stony Brook.

The Orange are just 6-10 ATS the past few seasons when laying points. That includes a 2-4 ATS mark when favored in the 3.5 to 10 range. During that time, they're 2-6 ATS when off a conference loss.

Meanwhile, over the same time period, the Huskies are 4-2 ATS when off a conference loss and 3-0 ATS when off back to back SU losses. They're 5-3 ATS, during that time, when listed as underdogs in the 3.5 to 10 range. I look for at least another cover here. *10

I'm playing on OREGON. I've won with many home underdogs on Thursday nights over the years, so I'm well aware that its normally tough to beat a team in front of its home fans on these Thursday ESPN games. Oregon is no "normal" team though. Indeed, the Ducks have won 10 straight conference road games. The Ducks have also outscored the Sun Devils by a 175-81 margin in winning four straight here at Tempe. Overall, the Ducks have won seven straight in the series. I look for them to continue that dominance for another year on Thursday night.

The Ducks know an undefeated record give them a great shot at playing for the National Title. They also know that this is a chance for them to remind everyone of how good they are.

Arizona State has played very well so far this season and has been one of the most profitable teams at the betting window. This is a major step up in class though.

The Ducks score more than 52 points a game and rush for more than 300 yards per game. Coming off a bye, Oregon is fresh and has had extra time to game plan.

As Marcus Mariota noted: "It is good for everyone to get back to 100 percent and get ready to play Arizona State."

The Ducks are 7-3 ATS (10-0 SU) their last 10 on the road and they were favored in nine of those. They know they have to keep their perfect record in tact for the USC game to really matter (for their national title hopes) and I look for them to take care of business in convincing fashion. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on SAN FRANCISCO. I've successfully played on and against the Seahawks this season, while also getting burned by them in the Monday Night refereeing debacle vs. Green Bay. I successfully played against them the following week at St. Louis but haven't gone against them since. Good thing, as they've covered both games. I feel this should prove to be another good spot to do so though.



The Seahawks don't have too far to travel. Still, I feel that the short week works in favor of the home team.



Note that the 49'ers are 14-5-1 ATS (14-6 SU) their last 20 home games. Meanwhile, the Seahawks are only 7-12-1 ATS (6-14 SU) their last 20 road games.



In addition to the short week and venue, I also like how recent results set this one up. While the Seahawks may be patting themselves on the back a bit, the 49'ers are angry, as they were embarrassed by the Giants last week. This is a SF team which wants the world to view it as "elite." Last week's loss didn't help but a big Thursday Night blowout on national television will go a long way in restoring their "image." More importantly, it'll allow the 49'ers to pull ahead of their pesky guests in the division race.



The Seahawks are just 2-4 ATS (1-5 SU) the past six times that they were off back to back victories while the 49'ers are typically at their best off a loss. Off this season's only previous defeat, they bounced back with a 34-0 blowout win their next game. They've dominated the Seahawks here the past few seasons and I look for them to bounce back with another big win and cover. *10

I'm playing on SMU. With 13 victories, Houston was one of last year's big stories. While this year's team is still talented, its not as good as last year's. I feel the Cougars are ripe for an upset.

While they''ve now won a few in a row, the Cougars are still 3-3 on the season. None of the teams (Rice, North Texas, UAB) they've beaten are as good as the one they'll face tonight, at least in my opinion.

Note that the Cougars lost their only true road game by a score of 37-6.

Also, note that the Cougars are only 3-9-1 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as road favorites in the 3.5 to 7 range, 0-2 ATS the past couple of seasons.

Perhaps looking ahead to this game or perhaps just bothered by playing back-to-back road games, the Mustangs stumbled at Tulane last time out. Prior to that, however, they won 17-0 at Utep.

The Mustangs are only 1-2 at home. However, the two losses came against a pair of really good teams, Texas A&M and TCU. And they only lost by eight against the Frogs. I don't think the Cougars are as good as either of those teams.

Since taking over the Mustangs, Jones has yet to beat Houston, an instate rival. I feel he's had this one circled since before the season started and that this year will offer Jones his best shot. The Mustangs had an edge in total yards the last time they hosted Houston. This time, they take it a step further and earn (at least) the cover. *10

I'm playing on SAN DIEGO. I successfully played against both these teams in their last game. The Chargers were on the wrong side of history vs. Drew Brees and the Saints. The Broncos got crushed at New England. Playing at home, with the point spread essentially a non-factor, I like the Chargers to be the team which bounces back.



The Chargers did get beaten badly by Atlanta here. That wasn't common for them though, as they're typically very tough to beat here at San Diego. They're 3-1 their last four here and 13-7 their last 20.



Conversely, the Broncos are 0-4 their last four away from Denver (0-2 this season) and 6-14 their last 20.



The Chargers have been laying at least a field goal (and as many as 11.5 points) in each of the last eight meetings against the Broncos here. While Manning wasn't around for those previous games, I feel the Chargers are offering great value. *10

I'm playing on GREEN BAY. I haven't played on the Packers since the replacement refs stole the game (and cover) from them up at Seattle. Good thing, as the Packers have failed to cover both games since that debacle. I feel this will be a good spot for them to "get the cash" though.

The Texans are indeed a very good team. However, they're playing on a short week here, after playing on Monday night at New York.

I successfully backed the Jets in that Monday night game. Not only did the Texans fail to cover for the first time but they also lost All-Pro linebacker Brian Cushing to a season-ending injury.

As coach Kubiak acknowledged: "A big blow for our team ... "

In addition to leading the team in tackles, Cushing is an "emotional leader."

Note that the Texans are 1-3 SU/ATS the last four times that they came off a Monday night game, 0-2 SU/ATS their last two times in that situation.

The Packers, who have seen three straight games decided by a field goal or less, are a profitable 5-1 ATS as underdogs the past few seasons, going a terrific 14-5-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were getting points. They're 7-3 ATS their last 10 against AFC teams and I look for them to earn AT LEAST another cover here. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on MIAMI. I successfully backed the Rams against Washington, Arizona AND Seattle. However, I also successfully played against them when they lost at Chicago, while staying away from their opening game against Detroit entirely. While they're certainly an improved team from last season, I feel that this will be another good spot to go against them.



Like the Rams, the Dolphins are off to a solid start. While they're only 2-3, they've played three of five on the road. They also could have easily been 3-2, as the loss against the Jets was theirs for the taking. Either way, they're off a win at Cincinnati and know this game represents an excellent opportunity to climb back to the .500 mark.



The Dolphins are outscoring teams by a 27.5 to 18 margin in two games here, averaging 416.5 yards of offense in those games.



Lets not forget that the Rams have lost five straight away from St. Louis and that they have just three wins their last 20 road games. They're 1-11 their last 12 road games and that one road win came at Cleveland by a single point (13-12) when the Browns were at their worst. ALL 11 of those losses came by at least four points, too.



The Rams are being outscored by a 25 to 14.5 margin on the road. The St. Louis offense is averaging a mere 205.5 yards per game on the road. Losing leading receiver Danny Amendola isn't going to help matters. (He was injured against Arizona.)



Bradford noted: "Obviously, losing Danny is big. Everyone knows that he's a big part of our offense. A lot of what we do runs through him.''



Without Amendola, the Rams will likely look to rely even more than normal on the ground game. However, that plays right into the Dolphins' hands.



After limiting the Bengals to 80 yards, the Dolphins have now gone 19 straight games without allowing a 100-yard rusher. In fact, the Miami run defense is #1 in the NFL with 61.4 yards allowed per game and just 2.7 yards per carry.



The Dolphins have dominated the Rams here over the years. I expect them to do so again, improving to 7-3 ATS their last 10 against NFC teams along the way. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on the NEW YORK JETS. I won with the Jets against Houston on Monday. While the Colts have shown they are improved from last season, they still represent a fairly big step down in class from the Texans. I expect the Jets to find the matchup favorable and look for them to come through with a win and cover.



True, the Jets are coming off a Monday night game. However, that was here at New York. So, there was no travel involved. Additionally, note that they're 15-4 ATS the last 19 times that they were off a Monday night game, 3-1 ATS the past couple of seasons.



The Colts are off an impressive comeback win against the Packers. That may have this young team ripe for a letdown though.



Ryan believes Sanchez starting gives him the best chance and I agree. He commented: "We're not preparing to lose, that's for sure. We're thinking we're going to win, starting this week."



Remember, the Colts are 4-13 on the road the past few seasons while the Jets are 12-7 at home. The Colts lone road game this season resulted in a 20-point loss.



Nothing is expected of the Colts this season. The Jets still have dreams of the postseason though. Given that they've fallen below .500 and have a road game at New England on deck, if they want to keep those dreams alive, this really becomes essentially a must win game. I look for them to step up and get it done. *9

I'm playing on HAWAII. I played against the Warriors in their last home game. That worked out well for me, as they got destroyed (69-24) by Nevada. The Warriors followed that up with back to back blowout road losses, failing to cover in each of those games. I also successfully played against the Warriors in the recently blowout loss (47-0) at BYU. So, I'm acutely aware of Hawaii's recent struggles.

I feel that those results, combined with the fact that the Lobos have covered a few in a row, have helped to give us excellent value here.

Yes, the Warriors are 1-4. Thats really no surprise though. Three of the losses were on the road. Hawaii was an underdog of 44, 26 and 19.5 points. So, not only were the Warriors expected to lose, they were expected to lose big.

As noted, I played against the Warriors in their home loss against Nevada. So, that didn't come as a surprise either. That leaves only one other game. That was against Lamar and the Warriors were -36 point favorites. So, they were expected to win that one easily. They did what was expected, winning by a score of 54-2.

Now, for the first time all season, the Warriors have a game against an opponent of similar talent. In fact, I feel Hawaii may have the superior talent.

Lets not forget that New Mexico was 1-11 last season. This season's team has already tripled that win total but those wins came at home against Southern and Texas State and "in state" against rival New Mexico State.

Off a "big win," feeling good about themselves, and now traveling outside their state for the first time, I feel the Lobos may be susceptible to an "island letdown." Note that they haven't won back to back games since 2008 and that they haven't won a game outside the state of New Mexico since October of 2007.

After this game, its likely going to be a long time (UNLV on 11/24) until the Warriors have a chance to win a game in front of the home fans. That's because three of their next four games come on the road - and the lone home game during that time comes against Boise State. Armed with this knowledge, I expect the Warriors to be treating this a "very big" game. Let's not forget that head coach Norm Chow is still looking for his first win over a 1A team. So, there should be no lack of motivation.

While they haven't been in that role in some time, the Lobos are a poor 11-17 ATS the last 28 times that they were listed as road favorites. Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Warriors were 21-10-1 ATS (22-10 SU) when the line ranged from +3 to -3, including 6-3 ATS as road underdogs of three or fewer points.

Even with the loss to Nevada, the Warriors are 10-6 ATS (11-5 SU) here the past few seasons. They can win this game and I think they will. *10 Underdog GOY

I'm playing on LSU. The Gamecocks come in with a big winning streak and a higher ranking. Off an impressive win over Georgia, they deserve it. I still feel that the Tigers are favored for good reason though. Playing at home, I expect them to come away with the victory, covering the small number along the way.

The Tigers are off a rare loss, their first in the "regular season" since way back in November of 2010. The big question is, how will the Tigers react to the defeat.

Les Miles noted: "It is an interesting thing, too, because for the first time in a year and a half we are talking about a regular-season loss, and it is miserable for us. Our football team is not enjoying it and certainly our coaching staff isn't, either."

I believe the Tigers will respond with flying colors. While a first loss kills the dreams of many teams, the situation is different here. The Tigers know that a victory here will put them right back in the hunt for the National title.

Safety Eric Reid noted: "It's a perfect situation. We had a tough loss, but at the same time, we can have a big win this Saturday."

Looking back to the Tigers' last regular season loss and we find that it actually came in the last game of the regular season, a 31-23 setback at Arkansas. They responded to that loss by trouncing Texas A@M in their bowl game.

That situation was a little different though, due to the long layoff between games. Plus, that loss to Arkansas wasn't the Tigers first loss of that season. They'd already lost a little over a month earlier, at Auburn.

I feel that loss at Auburn was a little more comparable to the current situation, as the Tigers had previously been undefeated. So, how did they respond? With an outright "upset" of Alabama the very next game. Remember, this is a very well-coached team.

The Gamecocks are definitely not slouches. They're also both well-coached and talented. Still, lets not forget that the Tigers are 10-1 as a host in this series. Also, while they've thrived in that situation so far this season, keep in mind that the Gamecocks are still only 5-9 ATS the last 14 times that they were off a conference win.

Interestingly, the Tigers were also coming off a loss the last time that these teams faced each other, back in 2008. In fact, LSU was off the worst loss of Les Miles' era, losing 51-21 against Florida. Miles got his guys to bounce back with a 24-17 win at South Carolina that day. I expect him to have them ready once again. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on BYU. The Beavers come in with the higher ranking. However, I believe that the Cougars are favored for good reason. And not just because of Oregon State's QB issues. Of course, that's not likely to make things any easier for the Beavers. While the Beavers are 4-0, they haven't started 5-0 since my grandparents were young.

Oregon State QB Cody Vaz has appeared in only five games in his entire career and he's completed just six of 17 passes for 48 yards. Should Vaz go down, his backup is redshirt freshman quarterback Richie Harrington, a walk-on.



Oregon State coach Mike Riley acknowledged this of Vaz: "The only unfortunate part is that I haven't played him enough."



The Cougars didn't cover last week - but they did manage a win against a tough and pesky Utah State team. With that game coming on a Friday, BYU gets an extra day of preparation. Prior to that game, the Cougars dominated Hawaii by a score of 47-0. They're 4-0 here on the season, outgaining teams by a 469.5 to 217.5 margin.



While they failed to win at Utah in Week 3, (I went against them there) note that the Cougars are a profitable 8-2 ATS the last 10 times that they were off consecutive SU victories.



The Cougars won by 10 at Oregon State last season. They outrushed the Beavers by a commanding 282-59 margin. They returned 14 starters from that team, too.



BYU coach Bronco Mendenhall is an OSU alumni and this is the homecoming game for the Cougars. Opportunities to beat ranked opponents don't come around all the time. I expect the well coached Cougars to take care of business in convincing fashion. *10 Personal Favorite

I'm playing on TEXAS TECH. After scoring 70 points against Baylor two weeks ago and then following it up with a road win at Texas, the Mountaineers are receiving plenty of attention from the media. Rightfully so, they've been pretty impressive. I feel that this will be a tough spot for them though. I also feel that all that media attention has them over-valued. Meanwhile, I feel that Texas Tech comes in under-valued, flying under the radar.

The schedules have arguably been fairly similar. The Mountaineers faced easy teams in Marshall, James Madison and Maryland to start the season. Likewise, the Red Raiders faced easy opponents in Northwestern State, Texas State and New Mexico in their first three games. Each team faced a lesser ranked Big 12 opponent in its fourth game. The Mountaineers hosted Baylor, the Red Raiders played at Iowa State. In the fifth game, last time out, WVU played Texas while Texas Tech took on Oklahoma. So, given that I feel the schedules are fairly close, I feel its fair to compare the stats.

Yes, WVU has the edge on offense. The Mountaineers are averaging a whopping 52 points on 570.8 yards of offense. However, the Red Raiders aren't as far behind as one might expect. They're averaging 39 points on 509.6 yards. At home, Texas Tech is averaging 520.7 yards, which is actually more than WVU averages on the road.

Its on the other side of the ball where Texas Tech has the advantage. The Red Raiders are allowing only 16.8 points and just 210 yards of offense. Meanwhile, WVU is allowing 35 points on 460 yards.

So, if we look at that a different way, we find that Texas Tech is outscoring opponents by 22.2 points per game while WVU is outscoring its opponents by "only" 17 per game.

Meanwhile, the Red Raiders are gaining 299.4 more yards of offense per game than their opponents while the Mountaineers are gaining only 110.8 more than their foes.

The Mountaineers have seen three straight games decided by 10 or fewer points. Their games have been getting progressively closer. They'll be playing back to back road games for the only time this season. Off the upset at Texas and with a big showdown vs. Kansas State on deck, this is a tough spot.

While the Red Raiders are off a disappointing loss, that loss came against Oklahoma - and it was their first loss of the season. Prior to that, they were 4-0 with all four victories coming by double-digits.

Last week's loss notwithstanding, I still believe that this is a very good Texas Tech team. Keep in mind that the Red Raiders brought back 17 starters from a team which was ranked as high as #19 at one point early last year.

I don't believe that the Raiders are going to hang their heads. This is their homecoming game and it offers them a chance to beat a ranked opponent. Note that Texas Tech is 39-23 ATS its last 60+ off a conference loss.

During that stretch, even with the loss against Oklahoma, the Red Raiders were 7-3 ATS as a home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. (All seven ATS wins were also SU wins.) I expect the Raiders to rise to the occasion and earn AT LEAST another cover on Saturday afternoon. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on MINNESOTA. I played against the Gophers when they were beaten at Iowa, their very last game. At the time, I suggested that the undefeated Gophers were over-valued. Perception can change quickly though.

Off a single road loss, suddenly the Gophers are being considered a bad team again. In fact, they're getting nearly as many points for this home game as they were at Iowa.

Like the Gophers, the Wildcats are also coming off their first loss of the season. I feel that their loss will be more difficult to "bounce back" emotionally and physically from.

First of all, Northwestern's loss came last Saturday while Minnesota's loss came the previous week. So, the Gophers have had an extra week to physically/emotionally recover, while also having extra preparation time go gameplan for the Wildcats.

Not only have they had more "recovery time," but the Gophers loss was of the "blowout variety." Those type of losses can often be easier to bounce back from than a closer loss. The Wildcats were really starting to think they were good and were beginning to entertain thoughts of keeping their undefeated record going for a few more weeks - losing a relatively close game at Penn State figures to be painful.

Note that the Wildcats, now 2-8 ATS the last 10 October games, are just 3-7 ATS the last 10 times that they were off a conference loss. During that stretch, they've gone 2-4 ATS as road favorites.

Of course, playing back to back road games is tough in itself.

Even with the loss at Iowa, the Gophers are still 12-7-1 ATS the last 20 times that they were listed as underdogs. The Gophers covered (lost 29-28 as 4.5 point underdogs) when these teams played here in 2010. I expect at least another cover. *9

I'm playing on NAVY. I won with the Midshipmen against Air Force last week. Navy prevailed in a hard fought game, winning in OT. While Central Michigan isn't a complete "cupcake," this is indeed a very winnable game for the Midshipmen. The question is how they'll respond to the win over their rival. Back on track, I believe the answer will be that the Midshipmen will build some positive momentum from that game.
The last time that Navy beat Air Force was in 2009. That was also a hard fought OT win. The next week, the Midshipmen followed it up with a 49-point win on the road. They haven't won by that many points since.
True, the Midshipmen are playing the second of back-to-back road games. This is a well-conditoned and well-coached team though, one which was quite competitive in that situation last season. The Midshipmen were 0-2 when playing the second of b2b road games last season. However, both losses came by just three points, including one at South Carolina against a Gamecocks team that was ranked #11 at the time. (Navy was a +16 point underdog.)
The Chippewas come in off back-to-back double-digit losses, failing to cover in both games. They're giving up an average of 495 yards and 45.3 points their past three games. For the season they're allowing an average of 457.6 ypg, including a whopping 223 ypg (5.8 ypr) on the ground. That should spell trouble against a rejuvenated Navy rushing attack.
The Chippewas are a dismal 1-10 ATS (2-9 SU) in October the past few seasons. During that stretch, they're 2-9 ATS off a conference loss, going 3-9 ATS (5-7 SU) in their home games. Off three straight road games, they're in a bit of a tough scheduling spot themselves.

The Midshipmen have long been excellent as underdogs. They're particularly tough as slight road underdogs, going 7-2 ATS the last nine times that they were listed as road underdogs of three or fewer points. I expect them to improve on those stats Friday night. *10

I'm playing on COLORADO. If I'm backing an underdog, I like to feel that the underdog has a chance at the outright win. That's not really necessary when getting more than three touchdowns though. That said, I feel the Buffaloes are coming into this game, looking for a win.

The Sun Devils are 4-1 on the season but only 1-1 on the road. That road win came by only 10 points, too.

While the Buffaloes have admittedly fared pretty poorly in the W/L column, they've also seen three of five games decided by five points or less.

Obviously, winning this game will not be easy; the Buffaloes are large underdogs for a reason. However, with road games at USC and Oregon on deck, this does represent the Buffaloes best shot at an October win. Throw in the fact that it comes on national TV and I look for them to be "fired up" and to deliver their best performance.

Historians will be interested to learn that Colorado is 2-0 on Thursday night games at Folsom Field, having beaten Stanford in 1990 and West Virginia in 2008.



Arizona State will be bringing pressure. The extra time off may help the Buffaloes a little there though. QB Jordan Webb noted: "I think the offensive line is really prepared. We've got some schemes that will help us. I think I have full faith in our offensive line. ... "



This was actually the first bye that the Buffaloes have had under coach Embree, now in his second season.



He said this of the time off: ''It's been good for us, we're excited to get some guys back healthy, allow us to address a few issues, tackling and turnovers. We did a lot live tackling. To the players it may not have felt like a bye, because we had a lot of live periods within practice and it was good to do that.''



Although teams usually get fired up for Thursday night games, the Sun Devils, 4-6 ATS their last 10 Thursday games, have a much bigger Thursday game (home game vs. Oregon) coming up next week. I feel they could get caught looking ahead.



For all their impressive stats, lets not forget that this Arizona State team was the least experienced team in the Pac 12 to start the season, returning only eight starter.



The Buffaloes were beaten soundly at Arizona State in Embree's first season as coach. Now, in his second year, he gets a chance to show he's got his program on the right track - and to help with future recruiting - by delivering a much more competitive game. I expect the Buffaloes to do just that. *10 Best Bet

I'm playing on TENNESSEE. Off back to back blowout losses and having been blown out in four of five games, not many people want to touch the Titans here. Many probably can't wait to bet the Steelers as "only" a single-digit favorite. Winning on the road is rarely easy though, let alone doing so by a large margin.
Admittedly, the Titans have stunk. Much of that is their own fault. However, in all fairness, they've had a VERY difficult opening schedule.
The Titans have played only two home games and those came against New England and Detroit. They earned a split out of those games, which wasn't all that bad. After all, they were underdogs in each.
The Titans first two road games came at San Diego and at Houston. The Chargers are among the better team's in the AFC and Houston has the best record in the league. Their last game came at Minnesota, against a Vikings team which has suddenly caught fire.
While I did lose with the Titans at Minnesota (bad call!) I still feel that they're a better team than we've seen thus far. The Titans players feel the same way. Playing at home, on National TV, against yet another tough opponent - offers them a chance to prove it.
Coach Munchak noted: "We know this is our big opportunity to hopefully change the opinion of a lot of people by how we play on Thursday night."
The Steelers always command respect. However, the fact is that they're only 1-3 ATS on the season and their only win of greater than two points came at home. They're getting outscored by an average of 32.5 to 25 on the road. They're now 7-12 ATS away from Pittsburgh the past few seasons.
Note that the Steelers are off a hard-fought win over an instate rival (Philly) and that they have a divisional battle against Cincinnati on deck. Although teams generally get up for "TV" games, given the situation, it sill may be easy to look past the lowly Titans. Either way, I do feel that the short week favors the home team.
Also, lets not forget that the Steelers are still without safety Troy Polamalu. Its also possible that linebacker LaMarr Woodley will miss the game. If he does play, he may be at less than 100%.
Tomlin said this of Woodley's status: "We're at the early portion of the season and we've got to be smart with how we deal with that."
The Titans, 5-1 ATS their last six Thursday games, are 7-2 (6-3 ATS) in nine games as a host in this series, since they moved from Houston. (The Steelers' only two wins both came by 10 or less.) The Titans are also 9-4 ATS the last 13 times that they were listed as home underdogs in the +3.5 to +7 range. I expect them to rise to the occasion and I'm grabbing the points. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on the NEW YORK JETS. Even the most casual of investors knows that they want to buy stocks when they're low and sell them when they're high. Of course, that's easier said than done. While its certainly not the only thing I consider, I've always believed the same is true of the NFL. In this case, I believe we're getting the Jets at a bargain rate while the Texans have become over-priced.



The Texans have indeed developed into a very good team. They'll be hungry to show that to the world. The betting public already knows how good they are though. They're being asked to lay more than seven points on the road.



To give that some perspective, before the regular season even started, some sportsbooks released lines on every single NFL game. People already knew the Texans were going to be good yet the line for this game was only a "pick'em."



True, the Jets are without Revis and Holmes while the Texans have been every bit as good as Houston fans could have hoped. Obviously, those factors should and have affected the line. Still, I think a line swing of greater than a TD is giving us excellent value with what I feel will be a very hungry and determined home underdog.



Just as the Texans will be looking to show the world that they're the real thing, the Jets will be looking to show the world that they're a much better team than the one which was beaten 34-0 last Sunday.



Sanchez had one of the best games of his career in a victory over the Texans in 2010, throwing for 315 yards. That was closer than expected, as it was decided by just a field goal. I look for this one to also prove closer than expected and I'm grabbing all the points I can get. *10

I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. The playoffs are already now likely out of the question. However, that doesn't mean that this Saints team won't be giving everything its got here. This is desperation time. A chance to show the world on National TV that they're not a joke and that they're bigger than the offseason scandal. I expect them to rise to the occasion and play their best game.

Brees will break Johnny Unitas' record tonight and he obviously wants to do so with a win. He only faced the Chargers, his former team, once and he three for 339 yards and three TDs en route to a 37-32 victory, at London England. He's off a big game and will be facing a banged-up San Diego secondary.

Rivers knows Brees will be ready for a big game. He was quoted saying: "It's been many years since I've been around Drew but he's treating today like they're 4-0. He's very steady. And that's how you bounce back from a situation like they're in. In a Drew Brees team with what they've been though, you can't ever count them out of anything. We'll get their best ... "

The Saints last two losses have come by four combined points. So, its not like they're playing as poorly as their record indicates. Interim coach Aaron Kromer noted: "You can see more positives. We really feel that we're on the cusp of getting on a roll."

The Chargers are certainly a capable team. However, they're also capable of getting beaten by a good team. We saw that when they faced another NFC South team, as Atlanta annihilated them.

Obviously Rivers and co. want to win and perform well. They're not "desperate" to do so though. I expect the Saints to want this one more and that extra level of motivation, combined with homefield advantage, to ultimately make the difference. *10 Main Event

I'm playing on NEW ENGLAND. Manning and Brady have had some epic showdowns over the years. This one figures to favor Brady though. Not only is he playing at home but he's also got a team around him that he's completely familiar with. While he's certainly looked good at times, even really good, let's not forget that Manning is still getting comfortable with his new team and that he's also still not that far removed from all those surgeries.

While he does have a fairly capable replacement (former Patriot Dan Koppen) it should be noted that Manning lost his starting center last week when J.D. Walton went down. He'd previously missed only one snap in his 3-year career. Obviously Koppen will be motivated to play well against his former team - and isn't probably too much of a downgrade - however, there can be some possible "chemistry issues" involved with a center making his first start on a new team, even an experienced one. Even one mistake could prove to be very big.

The Pats lost their only game here and will want to make amends for that. I also feel that the Pats are still stinging from the Super Bowl loss and that Brady will want to be the "top dog" in his own house. Brady must have felt the same way the last time that the Broncos came here. At the time, Tebow was in his "prime" and getting all kinds of publicity. IBrady wasn't too cool with that though. The Pats destroyed Denver by a score of 45-10. Brady threw 6 TDs.

Overall the Pats outscored the Broncos 86-33 while gaining more than 450 yards in each of last season's two games. Manning should help the Denver offense improve on those numbers but that's a huge gap to make up. Brady, who led his team to 52 points last week, figures to be licking his chops at facing a defense he carved up last season. While the Broncos defense has admittedly improved, I don't think they've improved enough to slow down a Patriot offense that finally found its groove in the second half of last week's game. I like the Pats to pull away and win this one by more than a touchdown. *10 Personal Favorite

Analysis
I'm playing on TENNESSEE. Many will back the favorite here, strictly based on the records. (The Titans are 1-3. The Vikings are 3-1.) I feel that the value lies with the underdog though.

Keep in mind that the Vikings got to play the Colts and Jaguars (they split those games) while all four of Tennessee's games (Pats and Lions at home and Chargers and Texans on the road) have been difficult.

A defensive-minded team that likes to run the ball, Minnesota tends to play a lot of close games. When I played on them against the Lions, I noted the following quote from coach Frazier: "The way our team is built, we're going to play a lot of close games."

That tendency to play close games leads to the Vikings being better as underdogs than as favorites. They're already 2-0 ATS as underdogs but are 0-1-1 ATS (1-1 SU) as favorites. They're 5-8-1 ATS their last 14 when laying points, 1-2 ATS as home favorites in the -3.

With the loss at Indianapolis, note that the Vikings are also now 2-7-1 ATS (2-8 SU) their last 10 against AFC opponents. Meanwhile, during the same stretch, the Titans are 6-2-1 ATS (6-3 SU) against NFC opponents. They're an outstanding 39-17-6 (44-18 SU!) their last 62 against NFC teams.

I'm comfortable with Hasselbeck at QB. Remember, he was the starter last season and has had plenty of success in this league. While the Vikings have a big-time back in Peterson, the Titans have a pretty good one too. Johsnon ran 25 times for 141 yards last game.

The schedule doesn't get easier for a little while yet for the Titans as they've got Pittsburgh on deck. They know they have to survive this difficult first stage and I look for them to be "desperate" here.

Three of the Vikings four games have been decided by a TD or less, two of them by a field goal. In a game that could easily be decided in the final minutes, grab the points. *10 Non-Conf GOW

I'm playing on BUFFALO. The 49ers are off a blowout win while the Bills are off a blowout loss. That's got everyone again believing that the 49'ers are among the best in the league and the Bills are among the league's worst. I feel that perception is providing value with the road team.

Yes, the 49ers are a good team. However, last week's result notwithstanding, I still don't believe that they're the type of team that's going to win a lot of games by huge margins. Note that two of their three wins came by single-digits.

Off the 34-0 win and with a huge "revenge" game vs. the defending Super Bowl champs on deck, I feel it will be easy to look past lowly Buffalo.

The Bills have alternated between wins and losses. Off a loss, they should be hungry. After getting blown out by a pair of AFC East rivals, Buffalo, 17-6-1 ATS its last 24 against NFC West teams (all of that in the past) would love to be able to show it can hang with an elite team from the other conference.

This Buffalo team is averaging 28.7 points per game and has scored at least 24 points in every game. Look for them to be more competitive than most will be expecting. *9