6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Magic/Rockets OVER 203

The Key: This total has been set too low tonight in a matchup between Orlando and Houston.  These teams played in an absolute shootout in their first meeting of the year, a 120-113 home victory for the Magic on January 14th.  I look for this game to play out similarly.  Houston ranks 2nd in the NBA in pace at 99.2 possessions per game as it prefers to run teams to death.  Orlando has given up 100-plus points in 13 of its last 17 games overall.  The Magic are 15-3 OVER off a combined score of 225 or more points over the last three seasons.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hornets/Jazz UNDER 179.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz are quietly playing some of the best basketball in the league right now.  They have won 12 of their last 15 games overall.  The reason for their success is defense.  They have allowed 91 or less points in eight straight coming in.  They have also given up 91 or fewer in 11 of their last 12.  Charlotte is not a very good offensive team, but it does get after it defensively.  It has allowed 95 or fewer points in 7 of its last 11 games.  The Hornets are 7-0 UNDER when playing with 2 days rest this season.  The Jazz are 8-0 UNDER in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  The Hornets are 4-0 UNDER in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record.  The UNDER is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.  Take this 23-0 angle backing the under straight to the bank tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Washington Wizards -2

The Key: The Washington Wizards have turned things around here of late.  They have won three straight games in blowout fashion over Charlotte by 26, Memphis by 20 and Sacramento by 16.  They should have an excellent chance to continuing this recent roll due to their current status physically; this will be just their 3rd game in 7 days.  Portland is playing well having won eight of its last nine, but it is in a difficult spot here tonight.  It is playing its 3rd game in 4 days and the 2nd of a back-to-back.  The home team is 9-3 SU in the last 12 meeting.  The Blazers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road meetings.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves are way undervalued right now due to their 14-50 record on the season.  They have also failed to cover the spread in three straight tough road games at LA Clippers, Phoenix and Oklahoma City.  They lost all three of those games by 14 points or less.  I like backing them now off three straight ATS non-covers as this number has been inflated to 12.5.  San Antonio is getting too much love from the books due to covering five of its last seven ATS.  Minnesota is 27-12 ATS revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.  San Antonio is 2-11 ATS when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days this season.  The Spurs are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 2 days rest.  Take Minnesota.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Sacramento Kings +9

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

6* Pistons/Blazers NBA "BAILOUT" on Portland -8.5

No analysis today on vacation.  I have done the same amount of research as I always do, but I just wanted to save some time and enjoy my vacation a little more.  I hope you understand.  I'll be back on Sunday with full analysis.

Thanks,
Dave

7* Rockets/Blazers Western Conference "BAILOUT" on Portland -2.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are back to having one of the best home-court advantages in the NBA in 2014-15.  They have gone 26-6 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 8.8 points per game.  Rarely will we get the chance to back them as only 2.5-point favorites.  They have won five of their last six games overall, which includes victories over San Antonio, Oklahoma City, LA Clippers and Dallas.  The home team has won four of the past five meetings between these teams.  Take Portland.

7* NBA Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE YEAR on Cavaliers/Mavericks OVER 200

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks have gone 11-0 to the UNDER in their last 11 games overall.  Obviously, the books are now forced to set this total lower than it should be, and therefore there's some value in backing the OVER tonight.  The Cavaliers are also coming off a low-scoring affair against the Suns last time out, which only adds to the value.  Dallas and Cleveland are tied for 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 107.4 points per 100  possessions.  Dallas has averaged 104.4 points on the season, while Cleveland has averaged 102.5, which would be higher if not for all the injuries earlier in the season.  Dallas is 10-1 OVER as a home underdog over the last two years.  Take the OVER.

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Milwaukee Bucks -1.5

The Key: I look for the Milwaukee Bucks to continue their dominant ways at home.  They have gone 9-1 in their last 10 home games overall.  The only reason they are just a 1.5-point favorite here is because they have lost four of their last five coming in, but all four of those losses were on the road.  The Pelicans come in getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers due to winning seven of their last nine, but most of those wins came against a weak schedule.  I'll back the home team laying the small number.  Take Milwaukee.

7* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jazz/Nets UNDER 187.5

The Key: The Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA.  They have given up 87 or fewer points in eight of their last nine games overall.  They are allowing 81.4 points in their last five contests.  The UNDER is 8-1 in their last eight games overall.  As good as they are defensively, they are equally terrible on offense.  Utah has scored 97 or fewer points in eight of its last nine contests.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns +11

The Key: The Cavaliers are on the second of a back-to--back and their 4th game in 5 days.  This is a great situation to fade them, especially with playing the Hawks last night, who are their biggest defenders in the East.  Take the Suns.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Indiana Pacers -6

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are in a very tough spot tonight.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back after a big win over the Oklahoma City Thunder last night.  The Pacers come in well-rested and ready to go.  They are fighting to make the Eastern Conference Playoffs and will be highly motivated for a win as a result.  The Pacers are 10-1 ATS off four straight games where they allowed a shooting percentage of 42% or less.  Take Indiana.

6* Thunder/Bulls TNT "Total" Annihilator on UNDER 199.5

The Key: The Bulls and Thunder are both battling huge injuries right now.  The Thunder are without Kevin Durant and playing with a banged up Russell Westbrook.  The Bulls are without their top two scorers in Jimmy Butler and Derrick Rose.  This has been a low-scoring series in the past, and it will continue in 2014-15 due to these injuries.  The Bulls and Thunder have combined for 189 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings.  They have averaged 184.2 combined points per game in these six contests.  The UNDER is 9-1 in Thunder's last 10 games against teams who force 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Pacers UNDER 190

The Key: The New York Knicks rank 28th in the NBA in offensive efficiency at 98.8 points per 100 possessions.  They also rank 28th in pace at 93.1 possessions per game.  That's not a great combo for scoring points, but it's an excellent one for backing UNDERS.  The Pacers do not look to push the tempo, either, ranking 20th in pace at 95.6 possessions per game.  The Pacers also rank just 25th in offensive efficiency at 99.3 points per 100 possessions.  The last two meetings between these teams have been low scoring with 185 and 178 combined points.  I look for this one to be played at a snail's pace and to easily stay under the 190-point total.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Pacers last 10 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.  The UNDER is 9-4 in Knicks last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Knicks last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.  Indiana is 7-0 UNDER in home games after having won 3 of its last 4 games this season.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Eastern Conference *CA$H COW* on Washington Wizards -1

The Key: The Chicago Bulls are without three key players right now.  They are without their top two scorers in Jimmy Butler (20.2 ppg) and Derrick Rose (18.4 ppg).  They are also without key role player Taj Gibson (10.6 ppg, 6.6 rpg).  They have struggled here of late going 1-2 in their last three games, which includes a pair of double-digit home losses to Charlotte and the LA Clippers.  Washington just recently got back Bradley Beal from an 8-game absence, and the Wizards promptly put an end to a six-game losing streak with a 99-95 victory over the Pistons.  Now at full strength, the Wizards will be a tough out going forward.  They are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 visits to Chicago.  The road team is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings as well.  Take Washington.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn Nets +6

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are running on fumes right now.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 4th game in 5 days.  They used a lot of energy coming back from 26 points down to beat Boston yesterday.  The Nets come into this game on a days' rest after beating the Mavericks by 10 on the road Saturday.  They will be the fresher team in this one.  The Warriors will be playing their 10th road game in an 11-game stretch and could not be more tired.  They are just 1-7-1 ATS in their first nine road games during this stretch.  The Nets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and playing some of their best ball of the season.  Golden State is 0-6 ATS after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game.  Brooklyn is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games against a team that wins 60% or more of its games.  Take the Nets.

7* NBA Situational GAME OF THE MONTH on Indiana Pacers +4

The Key: Despite over 70% of the betting public being on the Cavaliers tonight, this line has actually dropped from -5 to -3.5 as of this writing.  The smart money is clearly on the Pacers in this one.  The Cavaliers are overvalued here due to having won 18 of their last 20.  Well, they couldn't be in a worse spot tonight.  They are primed for a letdown following their big win over the Warriors last night.  They will now be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and their 5th game in 8 days.  The Pacers come in fully rested having last played on Tuesday.  Indiana is 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall, which includes home wins over Cleveland and Golden State.  The home team is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings as well.  Take Indiana.

7* Warriors/Cavaliers TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Cleveland -3.5

The Key: The Cavaliers are 17-2 in their last 19 games overall.  They have won all 17 games by at least 5 points, and 11 of those by double-digits.  To say they are rolling would be a massive understatement.  The Warriors have continued their winning ways as well, but they have been overvalued here of late and continue to be tonight.  Golden State is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games overall.  It has gone on the road and lost to Atlanta and Indiana, while also barely beating Philadelphia by 5 and Minnesota by 3 during this stretch.  The Cavs are 9-0 ATS in their last nine vs. Western Conference foes, proving that they are arguably the best team in the NBA against what is the best conference.  Cleveland is also 9-1 ATS in its last 10 home games.  Take Cleveland.

7* NBA Western Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Phoenix Suns -6

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have absolutely quit on head coach Brian Shaw.  They are 2-16 in their last 18 games overall, and it has been even worse since the All-Star Break.  They have lost all three games since the break with an 8-point loss at Milwaukee, a 25-point loss at Oklahoma City, and a 28-point home loss to Brooklyn while looking lifeless on the court.  Phoenix is struggling as well, losing five straight and eight of nine, but it has been competitive.  The Suns have lost four of their last five games by 5 points or less, so they have been unlucky in close games more than anything.  The Nuggets are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of more than 10 points.  Take Phoenix.

7* Pacers/Thunder Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -6.5

The Key: The Thunder are without Kevin Durant right now, but I believe the oddsmakers are over-adjusting for it.  They have been without Durant the past two games and haven't missed a beat.  They won 110-103 at Charlotte as 4.5-point favorites and 119-94 at home against Denver as 8.5-point favorites.  They have actually won four in a row and seven of their last nine without Durant.  Oklahoma City is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall.  It has won 11 of 12 at home, and it is 8-1 SU in its last nine home meetings with Indiana.  The Pacers are in a letdown spot here off their huge win over the Warriors on Sunday.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns -7.5

The Key: This is a very tough situation for the Boston Celtics.  They will be playing the second of a back-to-back and their 3rd game in 4 days.  They have lost road games to Sacramento (101-109) and the Lakers (111-118) in their first two games back from the All-Star Break.  They even went to overtime against the Lakers last night, which will only add to their fatigue.  Phoenix comes in hungry for a victory after back-to-back heartbreaking losses at Minnesota (109-111) and at Chicago (107-112) coming out of the break.  The Suns are still right in the thick of the Western Conference No. 8 seed race, so they are motivated right now.  The Suns are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Celtics.  Boston is 1-10 ATS when playing 5 or less games in 14 days over the last two seasons.  Phoenix is 7-0 ATS against Atlantic Division foes this season.  Take this combined 20-1 ATS angle straight to the bank tonight.  Take Phoenix.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hawks/Bucks UNDER 196

The Key: These are two of the best defensive teams in the NBA this season.  The Bucks rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency, while the Hawks rank 7th.  That's the reason both teams have improved so dramatically over last year.  The Bucks are missing a point guard after trading Brandon Knight to Phoenix, and having his replacement, Michael Carter-Williams, currently injured.  These teams have squared off twice this season, and both times it resulted in defensive battles.  They combined for 184 points in their first meeting and 175 in their second.  I look for this game to finish in a similar range.  Betting the UNDER on all teams where the total is 190 to 199.5 points who are playing their 2nd game in 5 days on Sunday games are 63-23 (73.3%) over the last five years.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bulls/Pistons UNDER 194

The Key: These teams have met up once already this season in a game that saw 193 combined points.  In fact, the Bulls and Pistons have combined for 193 or less in six of their last eight meetings.  I expect that this contest will fit that criteria considering the Pistons are without a point guard right now.  They traded D.J. Augustin to Oklahoma City, and while they did get Reggie Jackson back in return, he's not expected to play tonight.  The Bulls have allowed 88.3 points per game in their last four games, and they are 5-1 UNDER in their last six.  The UNDER is 10-2 in Pistons last 12 after allowing 100 or more points in their last game.  The UNDER is 14-3 in Bulls last 17 road games off a win by 10 points or more.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE WEEK on Orlando Magic +5.5

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans have been dominant at home this season, but it has been a completely different story on the road.  They are just 10-16 away from home where they are getting outscored by 3.6 points per game.  They do have Anthony Davis back healthy, but Jrue Holiday remains out with an injury.  The Magic are fully healthy as arguably their best player in Tobias Harris is expected to return to the lineup tonight.  Orlando is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall.  It continues to be undervalued here as 5.5-point home dogs to the Pelicans.  The home team has won three straight meetings in this series.  Plays on home underdogs like the Magic after a game where they failed to cover the spread, a well rested team playing 3 or less games in 10 days, are 80-41 (66.1%) ATS since 1996.  Take Orlando.

7* Mavericks/Thunder TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -4.5

The Key: The Thunder were red hot going into the All-Star Break, and I look for them to come out of it the same way.  They have won five of their last six games overall with four of those victories coming by double-digits.  This team is on a mission as it is now just 0.5 games behind the Phoenix Suns for the final playoff spot in the West.  Oklahoma City has won 11 of its last 14 meetings with Dallas.  The Thunder are 23-5 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of 60% or better.  Take Oklahoma City.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Thunder UNDER 198

The Key: Four of the last eight meetings between Memphis and Oklahoma City have gone to overtime.  I believe that has helped provide us with excellent line value here to back the UNDER in this battle between two of the best teams in the West tonight.  If you don't count overtime, it's easy to see that this total has been inflated when looking at recent meetings.  The Thunder and Grizzlies have combined for 186, 198, 170, 160, 180, 188, 229, 180 and 159 points in their last nine meetings.  As you can see, only once in those nine meetings have they surpassed 198 combined points.  They have averaged a combined 183.3 points per game at the end of regulation in their last nine meetings.  I believe we are getting 15 points of value here with this 198-point total as a result.  The UNDER is 10-1-1 in Grizzlies last 12 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Kings/Bulls UNDER 197.5

The Key: There is some serious value with this UNDER 197.5-point total in this game between Chicago and Sacramento.  The Kings are 6-0 to the UNDER in their last six games overall.  They have scored just 89.7 points in their last six contests.  The Bulls are 4-0 to the UNDER in their last four games overall.  They have allowed 92.3 points in their last four games.  The UNDER is 3-0 in the last three meetings in this series.  They have averaged a combined 180.3 points per game in those three meetings.  Add these three trends up and that's a 13-0 angle backing the UNDER in this game tonight.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Eastern Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Orlando Magic +9

The Key: The Magic are playing some great basketball here of late as they have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  They lost at Oklahoma City by 7 as 10.5-point dogs, at San Antonio by 7 as 13.5-point dogs, at home against Chicago by 1 as 6-point dogs, and beat the Lakers by 6 as 4.5-point home favorites.  They want revenge on the Wizards after losing their first three meetings this season by 7, 5, and 2 points.  They should have a great chance to take this one right down to the wire considering how poorly Washington is playing of late.  It has lost five of its last six games overall, and it is also 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games.  The Magic are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  Take Orlando.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis Grizzlies -2

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks may have the best record in the NBA at 42-9 on the season, but that's the reason they are overavlued at this point in the season, especially tonight as only 2-point road underdogs to the Grizzlies.  This is the perfect spot to fade the Hawks, who are set up to have a letdown following their big win over the Warriors on Friday.  The Grizzlies continue to get no respect.  They have won 12 of their last 14 games overall and are 21-5 at home this season.  They have held their last nine opponents to an average of 86.3 points per game.  Their defense is the reason they'll prevail tonight.  Take the Grizzlies.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Celtics/Bucks UNDER 195.5

The Key: The reason the Bucks are one of the most improved teams in the league this year at 27-23 is the way they play at the defensive end.  In fact, they rank 2nd in the league in defensive efficiency this season.  The UNDER is 15-6 in Bucks' last 21 games overall, including 13-3 in their last 16 vs. Eastern Conference opponents.  They are coming off a high-scoring loss to the Houston Rockets last night, which is the reason I believe the oddsmakers have inflated this total.  The UNDER is 11-5 in the Boston Celtics' last 16 road games.  The UNDER is 8-2 in Bucks last 10 home games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in the last six meetings between these teams in Milwaukee dating back to 2011.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA Non-Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Orlando Magic -4

The Key: The Orlando Magic are favored for good reason here.  They have lost 10 straight coming in, but their opponents in the Lakers have lost 11 of their last 12.  This is bad versus worse here tonight, and I'll side with the bad.  That's because the Magic have showed me a lot in their last two games.  They only lost by 7 at Oklahoma City as 10.5-point dogs, and by 7 at San Antonio as 13.5-point dogs.  I fully expect them to put an end to their losing streak tonight.  After all, the home team has won 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series.  The Lakers are 0-8 in their last eight road games will all eight losses coming by 4 points or more.  Seven of those eight losses have come by 8 points or more as well.  Take Orlando.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +3

The Key: The Dallas Mavericks expended a lot of energy last night trying to keep up with the Golden State Warriors in a 114-128 shootout.  Not only will they be playing the second of a back-to-back, but also their 5th game in 7 days, which is about as tough a situation as there is in the NBA.  I don't expect them to have a lot left to give against the Sacramento Kings tonight, especially since they're short-handed playing without Rajon Rondo.  The home team is 12-4 ATS in the last 16 meetings.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last seven vs. NBA Pacific Division opponents.  Take the Kings.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Magic/Spurs OVER 203

The Key: The Orlando Magic have become a more up-tempo team in recent weeks.  It hasn't worked out very well for them at all, but it has been very good for "over" bettors.  The Magic are 9-3 to the OVER in their last 12 games overall.  Their defense has been absolutely atrocious as they have allowed 101 or more points in 13 straight games.  Off a poor offensive performance last time out against the Clippers, look for the Spurs to get back on track offensively in this one.  The last time these teams met in San Antonio, the Spurs won 121-112 for 233 combined points.  The OVER is 9-2 in Magic last 11 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.  The OVER is 15-5 in Spurs last 20 games following a double-digit loss at home.  The OVER is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings, including 6-1 in the last seven meetings in San Antonio.  Take the OVER.

7* NBA Western Conference GAME OF THE MONTH on Portland Trail Blazers -8

The Key: The Blazers will be highly motivated for a win tonight.  They have lost eight of their last 10 games overall.  Seven of those losses came against playoff teams, and seven came by 7 points or less.  The Jazz come in riding high off a huge upset win over the Golden State Warriors, setting them up for a letdown spot tonight.  The Jazz are just 8-16 on the road this season.  The Blazers have won their last four meetings with the Jazz by an average of 15.8 points per game.  Plays against underdogs off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog against an opponent off an upset loss as a road favorite are 24-7 (77.4%) ATS over the last five years.  Take the Blazers.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Hornets/Wizards UNDER 188.5

The Key: The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series.  They have combined to average 182.8 points per game in those four meetings at the end of regulation.  The Hornets have gone 6-1 to the under in their last seven games overall.  They have combined to average 176.7 points per game with their last seven opponents as well.  The under is 9-2-1 in the last 12 meetings in Washington.  The under is also 11-1 in Hornets last 12 games following a win by more than 10 points.  Take the under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Celtics Over 187

The Key: Boston is off a six-point loss to Houston, and that is very significant because it is 7-0 "over" this season in home games following a loss of six points or less. We have seen an average of 212.1 total points scored in this spot. In addition, when the line is 180.0 to 189.5, playing the "over" on Sunday road teams that average 6.0 made three-point shots per game or more has produced a 46-18 mark the last five seasons. These teams have combined with their opponent for an average of 192.0 total points in this situation. Take the over.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +7.5

The Key: Off Wednesday's big win over Dallas, Houston will have a tough time getting up for the lowly Celtics. Fading Friday night favorites off a home win over a division rival has resulted in a 53-21 (72%) ATS mark the last five seasons. After going 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS versus the likes of the Clippers, Blazers, Nuggets, Warriors and Jazz, Boston was crushed by the miserable T-wolves. You can bet that loss isn't setting well. The Celtics are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points and 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus Western Conference foes. The home team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pacers -8

The Key: Expect a letdown from the Knicks following last night's big upset win over the Thunder. They are just 3-20 on the road and 1-10 in the second game of a back-to-back. They are 0-7 in their last seven in Indiana and have lost these by an average of 14.9 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Mavericks +4

The Key: Dallas fits into a strong situation. You want to play underdogs that are seeking revenge for an upset loss to an opponent when their opponent checks in off two or more consecutive road wins. Doing so has produced a 34-13 ATS mark the last five seasons. In addition, the Mavericks are 48-23-1 ATS in their last 72 games following a loss, 64-30 ATS in their last 94 road games and 43-19 ATS in their last 62 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Heat/Bulls Over 186

The Key: The Heat have finished under the total in 10 straight games, and we are getting a good number here as a result. Miami is 22-11 "over" the last two seasons when the total is 180-189.5. The Bulls are 21-8 "over" in their last 29 home games, including 10-1 this season when they check in with two wins in a three-game span. When the total is 180-189.5 for a Sunday game, playing the "over" on road teams that average six three-point makes per game or more has produced a 46-17 mark the last five seasons. It is also worth noting that the Bulls are 15-6 "over" this season in home games versus teams that average six made three-pointers per game or more. We have seen an average of 206.4 total points scored in these 21 contests.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Knicks/Hornets Under 185.5

The Key: Each of the season's first three meetings between these teams have gone over the number with at least 189 scored in each.  The Knicks combined with Orlando for 219 points last night, and the Hornets combined with the Cavs for 219 as well. And we're getting a line of just 185.5? Clearly, the books want the money on the over, but we won't oblige them. Prior to last night, the Hornets had held 10 straight foes to 45% shooting or worse with 8 of them making just 39.8% of their shots or fewer. Now that's some serious defense, and I expect a strong defensive effort tonight against a New York team that has really struggled offensively this season. The Knicks were kicked at home by the Hornets Jan. 10 so they'll be looking for revenge here. They know the best way to get it is too shore things up defensively, which is what they had done before last night. They got the win, but allowing the Magic to shoot over 50% serves as a reminder of their last game against Charlotte when they allowed the Hornets to shoot 50% and lost by 28. The Hornets aren't a good offensive team and are in poor offensive form, shooting just 37.6% from the field over their last five games. I expect the struggles to continue as the Knicks turn up the heat. Charlotte is 19-8 under in home games the last 3 seasons after playing a game with a combined score of 205 points or more.

7* NBA Total of the Year on Raptors/76ers Over 194

The Key: The Raptors have finished under the total in each of their last five games with just 178 total points scored in their last game at Memphis. The 76ers have come in under the number in nine of their last 10 with just 189 total points scored in their last game against the Knicks. Plus, we saw only 184 total points scored when these two teams met in Toronto last week. Given these recent outcomes, odds makers are clearly begging for action on the under. We won't give in. The last meeting between these teams was an aberration. Prior to it, these two had combined for at least 199 points in six straight meetings. When the total is 190.0-199.5, you want to play the over on teams like Toronto that have gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last five games when they are matched up against an opponent that has gone under the total by 42 points or more in their last seven games. Doing so has produced a 39-17 (70%) mark the last five seasons. The average line for these games is 194.0, but we have seen an average of 198.7 total points scored. Take the over.

6* NBA National TV *CA$H COW* on Bulls +6

The Key: The Spurs are being overvalued on the road against a Chicago team that I believe will be playing with a sense of desperation tonight. The Bulls have lost six of eight, a stretch that caused Derrick Rose to call out the team. I expect them to respond knowing that anything less than an all-out effort won't be good enough tonight. Chicago's biggest issues of late have been on the defensive side of the court, and that's something that can be corrected with better effort. We are now over the halfway point of the season, which bodes well for us tonight as the Bulls are 15-4 ATS in the second half of the season against teams with a win percentage of 60-70% under coach Thibodea. They have won these contests by an average score of 95.8 to 91.5. Take the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Pacers +11.5

The Key: Atlanta is being overvalued here because it has won 13 straight while covering the spread in the last 12. The fact the Pacers have lost five straight and have failed to cover the spread in their last seven is adding to the value. Consider that road underdogs of 10 points or more that have lost four or five of their last six games and are matched up against a team that has won eight or more of their last 10 games are 79-43 (65%) ATS the last five seasons. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the Pacers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Atlanta. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +8.5

The Key: Denver was completely embarrassed at Golden State last night and will come out focused and hungry as a result. The Nuggets have been a strong play at home even against good road teams and are 31-11 ATS in their last 42 home games versus a team with a winning road record. It is also worth noting that the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games versus teams with a winning home record. San Antonio is off a convincing win over Utah but is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games following a win of more than 10 points. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Raptors/Bucks Over 198.5

The Key: The over is showing value in tonight's Raptors/Bucks battle. The Bucks have finished under the total in 11 straight games, and odds makers have been forced to over adjust the line as a result of all the action coming in on the under for Milwaukee games. Toronto is off a bad upset loss at home to New Orleans, but that is to our benefit. The Raptors are 8-0 "over" the last two seasons in road games following an upset loss at home, and we've seen an average of 218.2 total points scored in these games. The "over" is 5-0 in Toronto's last five versus Central division foes and 4-0 in its last four versus Milwaukee. We have seen 210, 200, 210 and 207 total points scored in those four. Take the over.

6* NBA Total of the Week on Magic/Thunder Under 211.0

The Key: The under is showing some nice value in Sunday's Thunder vs. Magic matchup. You want to play the "under" on January road teams that went over the total by more than 24 points in their previous game if the posted total is 210.0 or greater. Doing so has produced an impressive 31-9 (78%) mark since 1996. The Thunder combined with Golden State for 242 points last game, but they won't get the same kind of help from an Orlando team that averages only 94.9 ppg. Oklahoma City's over/under results have directly correlated with its level of competition. It is 13-3 "under" when playing against teams with a losing record this season, and we have seen just 190.1 total points scored on average in these games. Take the under.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* (ESPN) on Thunder +2.5

The Key: This is one of the most motivated spots of the season for the Thunder, who have lost three of four. They were hit hard in the first quarter by Houston last night and played catch up the rest of the way. They will come out a lot more focused and energized from the tip tonight as a result. Fatigue shouldn't be an issue as they had five days off prior to last night's game. Adding to the motivation is the fact that Golden State has won each of the season's first three meetings. The Thunder were embarrassed at Golden State earlier this month and will be out for some serious revenge. The Warriors haven't been quite the same team on the road where they have lost three of their last four. They've also had a rough go in Oklahoma City where they are 1-10 in their last 11. The Thunder are 21-5-1 ATS in their last 27 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the Thunder.

6* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Nets +10

The Key: Washington is being overvalued following back-to-back impressive wins over the Spurs and Bulls. It knew it had to be on top of its game to get those two, but now it takes a step down in competition and the tendency will be to lose focus. The Wizards are a weak 19-31 ATS as a home favorite since the start of last season and 5-15 ATS during this span in home games after a stretch of covers in four or five or their last six games. Brooklyn will be highly motivated tonight as it looks to end a seven-game skid. Despite the losing streak, it has been pretty competitive as the losses have come by an average of just 7.4 points. The Nets are a better team than they've shown lately, and I expect a strong effort here. Brooklyn is 11-2 ATS after two straight double-digit losses over the last three seasons. It is 9-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in six or seven of their last eight games going back to the beginning of last season. The Nets are also 21-5 ATS the last three seasons in road games after failing to cover the spread in two or more consecutive games. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Thunder +1.5

The Key: The Thunder have the edge tonight against a Houston team that is playing its second game in as many nights, its third in four days and 9th in 14 days. The Thunder haven't played since last Friday and will undoubtedly be the fresher and more prepared side. OKC lost the season's first meeting but didn't have Durant or Westbrook for that one. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to back road teams that are seeking revenge for a home loss to an opponent if they are playing for just the third time or less in a 10-day span. Doing so has produced a 39-13 ATS mark since 1996. Take the Thunder.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Bulls -5.5

The Key: This is a tough spot for Washington, which is off a big win over the defending champion Spurs last night. It's asking too much of the Wizards to keep this one close against a more rested and hungry Chicago squad. Not only will the Bulls be fueled by an upset loss to lowly Orlando but also by an embarrassing loss in Washington last week. In a matchup of teams with win percentages of 60% to 75%, you want to back a team off an upset loss in a game in which it was favored by 10 points or more. Doing so has produced a 34-11 (76%) ATS mark since 1996. You also want to back favorites that are seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent when they check in off an upset loss as a double-digit favorite. Doing so has produced a 60-30 (67%) ATS mark since 1996. The Bulls are 13-4 ATS the last two seasons when seeking revenge for a road loss of 10 points or more and have won by an average of 8.5 points in this situation. Lay the points.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Wizards -1.5

The Key: This is a great spot to back the Wizards. They will be extremely hungry following an embarrassing loss in Atlanta last game. They'll also be motivated by a recent loss to the Spurs in San Antonio. Home court has been good to the Wizards as they are 16-4 at home on the season. They are also an outstanding 25-11 ATS the last two seasons when seeking revenge for a loss where they gave up 100 points or more. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Celtics +5

The Key: New Orleans has struggled on the road where it is 6-13 on the season, including 0-4 in its last four. It is also 0-6 on the season in road games against the East. The Pelicans are off a big 11-point win over Southwest division co-leader Memphis, but they are on a 3-20 ATS slide in road following a win of 10 points or more over a division opponent. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Heat +10

The Key: The Heat have had two days to rest up and prepare for this contest after taking it on the chin in Portland, and they will be lacking no motivation as they try to avenge a November 17-point home loss to the Clippers. LA is off a dominant performance against Dallas yesterday, but fatigue should be an issue as the regulars logged considerable playing time. The Clippers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games when playing without a day of rest and 0-5 ATS in their last five games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. You want to fade favorite of 10 points or more that have won three of their last four games if they carry win percentage of 60-75% and are playing a team with a win percentage of 40-49%. Doing so has produced a 78-42 ATS mark since 1996. It is also worth noting that Miami is 10-1 ATS the last two seasons after a stretch where it fails to cover the spread six or seven times in an eight-game span. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk of the Week on Spurs -5

The Key: This is a great spot for the Spurs who have had the last two days off. In fact, they've had two days off after each of their last three games so they should be fresh here. The Suns, on the other hand, are playing their third road game in four days. Not only will San Antonio be fresher, it will be hungrier following a home loss to Detroit in which it blew an 18 point lead. Adding fuel to the fire is a five-point loss at Phoenix in the season's first meeting. The Spurs don't like losing at home and are 18-6 ATS off a home loss the last three seasons and have won by an average of 9.9 points in this situation. They are also 12-4 ATS in their last 16 home games versus teams with a winning road record. Lay the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Raptors -12

The Key: Charlotte is playing its best basketball of the season, but it runs into a buzz saw tonight. This will be the second game in as many nights for the Hornets, their third in four days and fifth in seven days. They won't have enough left in the tank to content with a Toronto team that has had the last three days off. The Hornets are 23-48 ATS in their last 71 games when playing without a day of rest while the Raptors are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games playing on three days of rest or more. The Raptors will also be highly motivated because they have lost their last three with the last two losses being ugly. They are on a 13-3 ATS run at home following two straight losses of 15 points or more. Charlotte is 15-29 ATS the last three seasons as an underdog of 10 points or more. Lay the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Bucks/76ers Over 194.5

The Key: Milwaukee has been an unders machine, finishing under the number in each of its last seven, and we are getting a favorable number as a result. It is also to our benefit that Milwaukee is playing the second game of a back-to-back and an eighth game in 13 days as defense is the first thing to suffer for fatigued teams. The Bucks are 21-9 "over" the last two seasons when playing at least eight games in a 14-day span, and we have seen an average of 204.3 total points scored in this situation. It is also worth noting that the 76ers are on a 36-17 run the last three seasons in home games following an under, and we have seen an average of 202.3 total points scored in this situation. Take the over.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Nuggets/Timberwolves Over 209

The Key: We saw 208 total points scored when these teams played the day after Christmas, and we saw this amount despite very poor shooting from both teams. In fact, they combined to shoot barely 40% overall and just 17.6% from 3-point range. The pace of the game was very fast, which has been the norm when these teams get together. That's why we've seen an average of 226.4 total points scored in the last five meetings. The "over" is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Minnesota. With a fast pace and both teams shooting the ball just a little bit better, this one should find its way over the total.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings +4

The Key: The Kings are showing value catching points against a Detroit team that is 0-8 ATS as a home favorite this season. The Kings were a terrible investment in December but are now showing great value here as odds makers have overadjusted their lines. You want to take underdogs that have failed to cover the spread in 12 or more of their last 15 games when they are taking on an opponent that has covered the spread in four or five of their last six games. Doing so has produced a 77-37 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Magic +1.5

The Key: Brooklyn is primed for a letdown as it has won five of six and is coming off a big win over Chicago. It also has a revenge game against Miami on deck so it will likely be looking ahead to that matchup rather than focusing on a team it defeated by eight points earlier this season. The home team has had a significant edge in this series as it is 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 12.2 points. Take Orlando.

7* NBA Total of the Month on Spurs/Grizzlies Under 194.5

The Key: Odds makers are well off the mark here. The total was set at 191.0 the last time these teams met. They tallied 233 total points in that game but needed triple-OT to do so. They combined for just 184 points at the end of regulation so this number should have went the other way if anything. The Spurs are 8-1 "under" this season in road games after playing a home game, and we have seen just 187.0 total points scored on average in these contests. Take the under.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Kings/Nets Under 204.5

The Key: You want to play the "under" on teams like Brooklyn that are off two or more consecutive overs when they are matched up against an opponent that is off five or more consecutive overs. Doing so has produced a 60-25 mark the last five seasons. The under is 9-1 in the Nets' last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game, 6-0 in their last six versus the Western Conference and 4-0 in their last four games following an ATS loss. Take the under.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Spurs +1

The Key: Even if Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard doubtful, I like the Spurs at home in what should be a highly motivated spot. The Spurs have lost their last two and were routed in the season's first meeting with Houston so they will be out for payback. The Spurs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games versus a team with a winning road record. When the line is +3 to -3, you want to fade road teams that went over the total by 18 points or more in their previous game if they have a win percentage of .600 to .750 and are playing a team with a winning record. Doing so has produced a 31-7 ATS mark the last five seasons.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Pistons +2.5

The Key: The Pacers have been a terrible investment when coming off a win as they are on a 12-26-1 ATS slide following victory. Indiana is coming off a nice upset win at home over New Orleans but is a pathetic 2-12 ATS following an upset win at home under coach Vogel. It has lost by an average score of 96.0 to 87.6 in this situation. The Pistons have had the last four days off and spent that time focusing on defense. I expect a strong defensive effort here. I also expect the offense to be much more efficient after getting rid of Josh Smith, who led the team in field-goal attempts despite shooting just 39.1 percent. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Heat +5.5

The Key: The Cavs are being overvalued here on the road where they are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games versus teams with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Cleveland has been inconsistent defensively this season and is 0-5 ATS in its last five games after allowing 100 points or more in its previous game. The Cavaliers are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus Eastern Conference opponents. The Heat got caught looking ahead to this matchup and lost to lowly Philadelphia as a result. They'll be even more focused and motivated here because of that defeat. The Heat are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss and 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. Miami will be looking to send a message to LeBron James that he made the wrong decision. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Bucks -5.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for the Hornets, who are playing their second game in as many nights and fourth in five days. Milwaukee will be the much fresher side as it has had the last two days off. The Hornets are 21-47 ATS in their last 68 games when playing without a day of rest. The Bucks should also be the hungrier side as they have lost six straight to Charlotte, including a two-point loss in their season opener. The Bucks are 15-6 ATS this season when seeking revenge for a loss to an opponent. Milwaukee has taken care of business against weaker competition as it is 11-2 ATS versus teams with losing records this season. It has also bounced back nicely at 11-2 ATS following a loss on the season. You want to fade underdogs that beat the spread by more than 24 points in their previous game if that have a win percentage of just .250 to .400 on the season. Doing so has produced a 26-4 ATS mark the last five seasons.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Rockets -3.5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Portland. The Trail Blazers are playing their third road game in three days, and this stretch started with a triple-overtime contest. Houston, which has been at home and has had a day of rest in between each of its last two games, will be the fresher side. It will also be the hungrier side. Not only will the Rockets be out to end a two-game skid, they'll be out for revenge for last season's playoff loss to Portland. The Rockets are 20-8 ATS at against teams with winning percentages above 70% under McHale. The Trail Blazers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games versus a team with a winning percentage above .600. Lay the points.

6* NBA Annihilator on Kings -7

The Key: Motivated by five consecutive defeats and out for revenge for a three-point setback in L.A. Dec. 9, the Kings will be hungry. Recent history suggests this is great spot to back the Kings as well as a great spot to fade the Lakers. Consider that Sacramento is 10-1 ATS the last three seasons following five or more consecutive defeats. In addition, the Lakers are 3-12 ATS the last two seasons after covering the number in three of their last four games. Lay the points.

6* NBA Total of the Week on Bucks/Clippers Under 211.5

The Key: Milwaukee combined with Sacramento for 215 points in its last game. The Clippers combined with Denver for 215 points in their last game. And, the Bucks and Clippers combined for 217 points when they met Dec. 13. With a number set well below these point totals, it appears odds makers are begging for action on the under. We won't bite. The LA's defense wasn't very good last night. It allowed Denver to shoot 47.5% for the game and make 11 three-point attempts. That poor defensive effort will remind the Clippers of an even worse defensive performance they had recently against the Bucks. They lost in Milwaukee while allowing the Bucks to shoot 56.6% from the field and 63.6% from three-point range. I expect a much better defensive effort tonight in a bounce-back, revenge spot. When the total is 200 or higher, you want to play the "under" on teams like Milwaukee that have covered the spread in four or five of their last six games and are playing a fourth road game in seven days. Doing so has produced a 55-25 (69%) mark the last five seasons. The Bucks are also on a 28-13 "unders" run in road games when the total is 210 or higher. Take the under.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +8

The Key: The Pistons hold major motivational edges in this game. They will be highly motivated tonight as they try to snap an ugly 11-game losing streak at home. They'll also be fueled by a three-game losing streak to the Raptors. Toronto will have a tough time getting up for the lowly Pistons on the road. We saw this in its most recent road game when it defeated the Knicks by only five points. Toronto is off a 105-89 win over Brooklyn but is 1-4 ATS in its last five games following a win of more than 10 points. In addition, fading Friday night favorites off a home win over a division rival has resulted in a 52-20 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Nuggets +1.5

The Key: Motivated by back-to-back defeats, including a 108-96 loss in Houston Dec. 13, the Nuggets will bounce back strong at home where they are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven. The Nuggets are 45-22-1 ATS in their last 68 home games versus teams with a winning road record and 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Home court has been huge in this series as the home team is 6-0 in the last six meetings with an average winning margin of 10.2 points. The Rockets are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four visits to the Mile High City. Take Denver.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Kings +7.5

The Key: The Thunder have been rolling since the return of Durant and Westbrook, but this is a tough situation for them. They are playing their fourth game in six and have a big one at Golden State on deck. The Kings have had the last two days off so they will be the fresher side. I also expect maximum effort in the wake of Michael Malone's firing. Fading favorites off two straight double digits wins in a matchup of teams with +/- 3.0 ppg differentials has resulted in a 37-11 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Pacers -6

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Lakers, who are playing their second road game in as many days and third in four days. Indiana has been at home and had Sunday off so it should be the fresher side. The Pacers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games when playing on one days' rest. The Pacers should also be the hungrier side as they try to snap an eight-game slide. The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games versus a team with a losing record and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 Monday games. The Pacers are 5-0 in the last five meetings, winning them by an average of 8.4 points. Lay the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Suns +6.5

The Key: OKC is being overvalued at home following a five-game win streak that has coincided with the return of its two stars. The Suns have given the Thunder problems, winning the last two meetings. The Suns are in the midst of a four-game slide but none of the losses have come by more than six points. Phoenix is on a 24-11 ATS run as a road underdog and is 9-1 ATS in road games following a loss of six points or less the last two seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Pistons/Suns Over 203

The Key: When these teams met in Detroit last month, we saw just 174 total points scored, but they combined for only 33 points from beyond the arc and only 23 points from the free throw line. Keep in mind these teams average 54 points combined per game on three-pointers and 33 points on free throws. In other words, they are averaging 31 more points per game in these areas than we saw in the first meeting. Add those 31 points to the total score of the first meeting, and we get 205. So we are getting a good number here. Plus, we can also take into consideration that neither team is defending well. The Pistons have allowed 103.6 points over their last eight games, and the Suns are allowing 106.7 points over their last nine games. Phoenix is 8-1 over this season versus teams that give up 99.0 ppg or more, and we have seen an average of 219.9 total points scored in these contests. The Suns are 9-1 over the last two season when playing against teams with a win percentage of 25% or worse, and we have seen 213.2 total points scored in these games. Take the over.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Rockets/Kings Over 196

The Key: We saw just 191 total points scored when these teams met in Houston last month. The Kings went to DeMarcus Cousins in the post a lot in that game, but they'll be looking to run more without him in the lineup. The Rockets just played last night, and the Kings are playing for the third time in four days. Neither team has fresh legs, and defense is the first thing to go when that's the case. Houston is 18-4 over off a road loss over the last two seasons, and we have seen an average of 212.7 total points scored in these contests. Also, the over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings in Sacramento.

6* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Pacers +7

The Key: The Pacers are extremely disappointed with how they performed last game. They returned home following an 0-4 road trip looking to get back on track but were hit in the mouth by Atlanta instead. I expect an inspired performance in the wake of that loss. The Pacers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home, 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Wednesday games and 4-0 ATS in their last four games when playing on one day of rest. The Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last four versus Central division opponents. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Hornets -2.5

The Key: This is a superior spot for Charlotte, which has had the last four days off to get healthy and to get prepared for this matchup. Boston is playing its third game in four days with the last one going to double overtime. The Hornets will have the fresher legs. Boston has been playing uptempo basketball, trying to outscore its opponents, but Charlotte has done an excellent job controlling the tempo against such teams and is on a 27-14 ATS run versus up-tempo teams that average 83 shots per game or more. Lay the points.

6* NBA Bailout on Lakers -2.5

The Key: Motivated by three consecutive blowout losses, the Lakers should take care of business against a Sacramento team that hasn't been the same since the loss of DeMarcus Cousins. The Lakers should also benefit from fresher legs. Sacramento played last night while L.A. had the night off. The Lakers have had plenty of success against the Kings and are 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings overall and 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings at home. Lay the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Heat +5

The Key: This is a bad spot for Phoenix, which will be playing a second game in as many nights and a fourth in five days. To make matters worse, last night's game with the Clippers went to overtime so I don't see the Suns having enough left in the tank to cover this number. The Suns are 1-4 ATS in their last five games when playing without a day of rest and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Heat are 18-6 ATS in the last 24 meetings, including 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in Phoenix. Take the points.

6* NBA Vegas Line Mistake on Suns +7.5

The Key: This line is inflated due to LA's run of five consecutive covers. Consider that the Clippers are just 22-43 ATS since 1996 after covering the spread in four or more consecutive games. The Clippers are also 0-5 ATS in their last five home games versus teams with a winning road record. The Suns are coming off a loss in Houston but are an impressive 29-11-1 ATS in their last 41 games following an ATS loss. That game, however, was Phoenix's second in as many days. While playing three games in four days is no picnic, the Suns have thrived in such spots under Hornacek, going 22-10 ATS and winning by an average score of 105.7 to 101.9. They are also 44-20-1 ATS in their last 65 games when playing on one day of rest. The Suns are 31-16 ATS as a dog under Hornacek and 23-11 ATS as a road underdog under their current coach. You want to take road teams that average 103.0 ppg or more that trailed by 15 points or more at halftime of the previous game. Doing so has produced an 81-36 ATS mark since 1996. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Nuggets +5.5

The Key: Atlanta is 12-6 but wouldn't be if it played in the much stronger Western Conference. The Hawks are just 3-13 ATS in their last 16 versus the West and 0-6 ATS in their last six versus the NBA Northwest division. The Nuggets are off a bad loss at Washington where they couldn't throw it in the ocean, but the performance was an outlier because they had been played exceptional in their previous nine games. The Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games when playing on one day of rest. You want to back road teams that average 103.0 ppg or more that trailed in their previous game by 15 points or more at the half. Doing so has produced an 81-35 ATS mark since 1996. It is also worth noting that Atlanta is just 11-23 ATS the last three seasons versus teams that average 103.0 ppg or more.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Pistons -9

The Key: The Pistons have been a major disappointment thus far, but this is a fantastic spot for them. Not only will Detroit be motivated by a 10-game slide, but it will also be fueled by an embarrassing 25-point loss the last time it faced the 76ers. The Pistons have had two days to regroup and are 5-1 ATS in their last six games when playing on two days' rest. The 76ers have covered the spread in six of their last seven and are starting to lose value as a result. This is the second game of a back-to-back for them, a spot that hasn't treated the well. They are 18-38 ATS in their last 56 games when playing without a day of rest. They are also 17-32 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Lay the number.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Timberwolves +7

The Key: Off a big win over Memphis and with a matchup against Phoenix tomorrow night, Houston won't give Minnesota its full attention. The Rockets have a 12-point win over Minnesota this season in Mexico City so it will be easy for them to look right past the Timberwolves here. I expect the T-Wolves to be extremely motivated after losing to the then 0-17 76ers. That's the type of embarrassing loss that gets a teams attention. The Rockets are 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus a team with a winning percentage below .400. Also, you want to fade Friday night favorites that are off a home win against a division rival as doing so has produced a 50-20 (71%) ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA National TV Annihilator on Knicks +7.5

The Key: The Cavs haven't played on the road since Nov. 21, and they are just 3-3 in their previous six road games with just one of the wins coming by more than this number. The Knicks won the first meeting, spoiling LeBron James' homecoming. While Cleveland will be out for revenge, that angle has been figured into this number, overfigured. The Knicks will be highly motivated too as they try to end a five-game skid. The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games versus a team with a winning record while the Cavaliers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400. Take the points.

6* NBA *SITUATIONAL SLAM DUNK* on Hornets +3.5

The Key: This is a favorable situation for Charlotte. The Hornets will undoubtedly be the fresher side having had the last three days off. The Bulls, on the other hand, will be feeling the effects of last night's double-OT contest with Dallas. The Bulls are 0-4 ATS in their last four games when their starting five players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day. The Bulls are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games versus teams that have a winning percentage below .400. The Hornets, meanwhile, are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games versus a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Celtics +6.5

The Key: Boston is coming off a 22-point loss to the reigning NBA champion Spurs, which is actually a good thing for us. Consider that road teams off a blowout loss of 15 points that average 103.0 ppg or more on the season are 123-70 (64%) ATS since 1996. The Hawks are off a 30-point win over Charlotte and the game was never in doubt as they led big at the half. That bodes well for us too as fading home teams that led their previous game by 20 points or more at halftime has produced a 98-56 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Jazz +3

The Key: The Nuggets are being overvalued on the road tonight because they have won six of their last seven games. Utah has lost five straight and will be hungry as a result. I really like its chances of winning this one outright considering it has won 31 of the last 38 at home in the series. The Jazz are 14-3 ATS the last three seasons after failing to cover the spread in four of their last five games. In addition, when the line is +3 to -3 you want to fade road teams off two or more consecutive overs if they average 102.0 ppg or more and are playing a team that allows 98.0-102.0 ppg. Doing so has produced a 32-10 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

6* NBA "Total" Annihilator on Grizzlies/Kings Under 195

The Key: The Grizzlies combined with Portland for 211 points in their last game. The Kings combined with San Antonio for 216. And, these teams combined for 221 points in the season's first meeting. It appears odds makers are begging for action on the over, but we won't bite. Memphis has been at its best defensively on the road where it is giving up only 89.9 ppg. It is also worth noting that the Grizzlies haven't been nearly as good offensively on the road, averaging just 94.5 ppg. The Kings have been a far better defensive team at home where they are holding opponents to 97.2 ppg. Prior to this season's meeting, these teams had combined for 188 points or less in four straight matchups. The under is 6-0 in the Kings' last six home games versus a team with a winning road record. The under is 3-0-1 in the Grizzlies' last four games following a win of more than 10 points and 3-0-1 in their last four after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Memphis is 18-3 under as a road favorite under coach Joerger, and we have seen just 182.3 total points scored on average in these games.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Jazz +6

The Key: This is a good spot to back the Jazz. The Clippers are off a big win in Houston last night, which puts them in danger of a letdown. Furthermore, this is their second road game in as many days and their fifth in seven days. This is the last game of a seven-game road trip so the Clippers will be happy to return home and will likely be more focused on that rather than the task at hand, especially since they have won 10 straight against the Jazz. Utah will be highly motivated to end that streak, and it will be the fresher side having had the last two days off. The Clippers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 10 points and 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win. The Jazz are 5-1 ATS in their last six games following an ATS loss and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a  loss of more than 10 points. The Clippers are 4-17-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings in Utah. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Hornets +9

The Key: The Hornets will be highly motivated as they look to bring their seven-game losing streak to an end. Adding fuel to the fire is a 112-87 loss at Golden State Nov. 11. I expect the Hornets to show much better at home where they have won or lost by fewer than nine points in nine straight against the Warriors. That's a 9-0 trend in our favor. The Hornets are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games versus teams with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. Take the points.

7* NBA Situational Slam Dunk GAME OF THE MONTH on Timberwolves +1.5

The Key: This is a great spot to back the Timberwolves. They have had the last three days off to prepare for this contest while Milwaukee just played last night. The Timberwolves are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games when playing on three days' rest or more. The Bucks defeated the Pistons by 12 points last night, but they are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 following a win and 5-16 ATS in their last 21 following a win of more than 10 points. The T-Wolves lost by 12 to Sacramento the last time they took the floor, but they are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games following a double-digit loss at home. Milwaukee hasn't been the same team on the road where it has lost five of eight. It's also struggled against Minnesota. It is 0-4 in the last four meetings overall and 4-13 in its last 17 games in Minnesota. The Bucks are 1-6 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is 10-4-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings. Take the T-Wolves.

7* NBA Total of the Week on Kings/Pelicans Under 203.5

The Key: We saw 206 total points scored when these teams faced off in Sacramento last Tuesday. However, we saw just 185 and 199 total points scored in the previous two meetings. Both teams will benefit from two days of rest and game prep and the fact they just faced each other. I just don't see the offenses being as efficient here. The Under is 14-5-1 in the Kings' last 20 road games versus a team with a winning home record and 4-0 in the Pelicans' last four home games versus a team with a winning road record. When the total is 200.0 to 209.5 in November games, you want to play the under on all teams (Sacramento in this case) with a winning percentage of 60-75%. Doing so has produced a 64-31 mark the last five seasons. We've seen an average total of 204.5 points in this situation but only 199.1 total points scored on average. Take the Under.

7* NBA Game of the Week on Celtics +6

The Key: The Trail Blazers are being overvalued following six consecutive wins. They are 9-3 on the season but have played only three games on the road, losing two. The Celtics are 4-7 but have played some good teams close. They have four losses of five points or less to the likes of Dallas, Toronto, Phoenix and Cleveland, and they have a win over Chicago. Boston has been a tough road trip for the Blazers, who are 1-9 in their last 10 visits. Take the points.

6* NBA Situational Slam Dunk on Bucks +3

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Wizards as they hit the road following last night's big win over Cleveland. The Wizards are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win, and they'll have a tough time getting up for a Milwaukee team they defeated by 11 points earlier this month. That loss, along with last night's ugly performance in Toronto, assures us the Bucks will be motivated. They are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss and 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Timberwolves +8.5

The Key: Off a big win over LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, this matchup won't get San Antonio's competitive juices flowing. Minnesota is 3-0 ATS at home this season, and it has been competitive against the Spurs. The T-Wolves are 3-2 in the last five meetings and 2-0 in the last two home meetings. The home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, and the Spurs are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Kings -1

The Key: The Bulls are off a blowout win over the Clippers but are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a win. The Kings are off a loss to New Orleans but are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a loss. The Bulls are 6-0 on the road, but the Kings are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Bulls are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games versus a team with a winning S.U. record. The Kings have performed well against the Bulls, going 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings while winning their two home meetings during this span by 42 and 29 points. Take the Kings.

7* NBA Humpday *HEAVY HITTER* on Pistons +3

The Key: The Pistons have been a poor investment in the early going, but they have quietly covered the spread in three of their last four and are showing value in the home underdog role tonight. I expect a tremendous defensive effort from the Pistons following their worst defensive performance of the season. After holding Oklahoma City and Memphis below 40% shooting, they allowed the Magic to shoot 51.9%. The Suns are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA and have allowed their last two opponents to shoot above 51%. They have allowed 47% shooting or higher in five of their last seven games so there's a good chance the Pistons get it going offensively. Odds makers are certainly expecting to see a little offense tonight with the total set at 204.5. That bodes well for us as Van Gundy's teams are 30-11 ATS all-time in home games when the total is 200.0 to 204.5. Take the points.

6* NBA *CA$H COW* on Pelicans +3

The Key: New Orleans will have no trouble getting up for a Sacramento team that has won the last three meetings. The Pelicans played last night in Portland but are 4-1 ATS in their last five games without rest. The Kings have had the last two days off but are 0-4 ATS in their last four when playing on two days' rest. Sacramento is off a big win over the Spurs, but it is on an 8-19 ATS slide at home following a win. When the line is +3 to -3 in the first half of the season, you want to fade home teams off an upset win as doing so has produced a 53-25 ATS mark the last five seasons. Take the points.

7* NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Hornets +4

The Key: The Hornets were pummeled at Golden State last game, but they were in a tough spot - playing their second road game in as many nights against one of the best teams in the NBA. That loss will have them motivated here. The Hornets have been one of the best bounce-back teams in the league, going 31-15 ATS following a loss since the start of last season. They are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a loss of more than 10 points. Much of Dallas' early success can be attributed to how well it's taken care of the basketball. Recent history suggests it won't matter tonight. The Hornets are 11-1 ATS in home games versus teams that commit an average of 14.0 turnovers per game of less under coach Clifford. They have defeated these teams by an average score of 104.3 to 96.0. Also, the home team is 5-0 in the last five meetings with Charlotte winning by 25 the last time it hosted. Take the points.