6* Lakers/Rockets Western Conference *CA$H COW* on Houston +3

The Key: The Houston Rockets finally have all their players back from COVID complications.  They showed their potential with a 132-90 win over the Magic on Friday.  And now they will upset the Lakers today at home.  The Lakers just seem to be going through the motions in the regular season.  In their last 3 games they beat Memphis by 2 as 9.5-point favorites, lost outright to the Spurs are 8.5-point favorites, and beat the Bulls by 2 as 9-point favorites.  This is now a big step up in class for the Lakers, who are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win.  The Rockets are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games off 2 or more consecutive unders.  Take Houston.

6* Saturday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Spurs/Timberwolves OVER 232.5

The Key: The Spurs and Timberwolves both like to run and gun and chuck up 3's with defense seeming to be optional.  The Timberwolves yield 121.9 PPG and 50.6% shooting while the Spurs yeild 114.1 PPG and 48.1% shooting this year.  The OVER is 4-0 in Timberwolves last 4 games with combined scores of 233 or more in all 4.  The OVER is 6-1 in the last 7 matchups.  Take the OVER.

7* Clippers/Warriors ESPN *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -6.5

The Key: The Clippers have won 4 straight matchups with the Warriors all by 7 points or more and by an average of 15 PPG.  They beat the Warriors 108-101 on Wednesday in what was a bad spot for them playing the 2nd of a back-to-back while the Warriors had the previous day off.  Now this is a much better situation for the Clippers as they are fully healthy, while the Warriors could be without Stephon Curry.  Either way, I like Patrick Beverly's chances of shutting him down again even if he does play.  Beverly held him to 13 points and only 5 made field goals in the first matchup.  Curry was seen limping off the floor afterward and it would be wise of the Warriors to sit him.  The Clippers are 39-17 ATS in their last 56 games as road favorites.  The Clippers are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 road games against division opponents.  The Clippers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 trips to Golden State.  The Warriors are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games.  Take Los Angeles.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on New York Knicks -2.5

The Key: The New York Knicks are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA.  They are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall with upset road wins over the Pacers, Hawks and Cavs and upset home wins over the Bucks and Jazz.  And here they are are only 2.5-point favorites when they are taking a step down in class against the Oklahoma City Thunder.  The Thunder have one of the least-talented rosters in the NBA.  They are 3-4 this season but 2 of their wins came by a combined 3 points.  They are getting outscored by 8.7 PPG on the season.  The Knicks are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as favorites.  Take New York.

7* 76ers/Nets TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Brooklyn ML +112

The Key: The situation really favors the Brooklyn Nets tonight.  They are rested after having yesterday off following their blowout win over the Jazz by 34 points on Tuesday that saw them get to rest their starters in the 4th quarter as well.  The 76ers were in a dog fight with the Wizards last night and prevailed 141-136 despite 60 points from Bradley Beal.  That effort will have taken a lot out of the 76ers, and now they won't have much fight left tonight for the Nets.  It will also be the 8th game in 13 days for the 76ers, a brutal schedule to start the season.  Bets against road teams where the line is +3 to -3 after being the spread by 30 or more points total in their last 5 games against a team that went under the total by 24 points or more in their last 3 games combined are 24-5 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Brooklyn on the Money Line.

6* Clippers/Warriors ESPN *BAILOUT* on Golden State +1.5

The Key: The Golden State Warriors are now 4-1 SU in their last 5 games overall and have scored 137 points in 2 straight blowout victories over Portland by 15 and Sacramento by 31.  They had yesterday off and will be playing their 4th straight home games, so they are rested.  The same cannot be said for the Clippers.  After losing 113-116 to San Antonio last night, the Clippers will now be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 6th game in 9 days.  They are likely to rest some starters tonight, including Paul George and possibly Kawhi Leonard.  Marcus Morris is also doubtful for this one.  The Clippers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games when their starting 5 players combine for more than 160 minutes the previous day.  Take Golden State.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Chicago Bulls +9.5

The Key: The Chicago Bulls have quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  They are playing better than they are getting credit for and will not lose by double-digits to the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.  The Blazers are 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS with only one win by more than 8 points this season.  The Blazers will be playing their first home game following a 4-game road trip through California.  I always like fading teams in their first game back home following a long road trip.  The Bills are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on one days' rest.  The Blazers are 0-7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of greater than 60%.  Portland is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 games against a a team with a losing record.  Take Chicago.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Toronto Raptors -3.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are hungry for a victory after opening the season 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS.  They have lost to 4 good teams in the Pelicans twice and the Spurs and 76ers with 3 of those losses coming on the road.  They did beat the Knicks by 17 at home for their lone victory.  And now the situation is a good one for them and a terrible one for the Celtics.  While the Raptors had yesterday off, the Celtics played a 122-120 barn burner against Detroit yesterday.  And now they'll be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 5th game in 7 days.  They will be without Kemba Walker and likely without Jeff Teague, their top 2 point guards.  The Raptors also want to exact some revenge after losing to the Celtics in Game 7 of the playoffs last year.  Bets on favorites off an upset loss as a favorite against a team that won their last game but didn't cover as a favorite are 32-10 ATS over the last 5 years.  The Celtics are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games off a SU win.  The Raptors are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 games off an ATS loss.  Take Toronto.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Wizards +8

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets haven't been playing very well since Spencer Dinwiddie went down with a season-ending injury.  He is one of the most underrated players in the NBA.  The Nets are 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall while failing to cover the spread by a combined 42.5 points.  The Wizards are underrated now after a 1-5 start in which they haven't lost any game by more than 10 points, so they have been competitive in all 6 games.  And they will be competitive here against the Nets.  Brooklyn is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 home games.  Take Washington.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings +5

The Key: The situation is a great one for the Sacramento Kings today.  The Kings are 4-1 ATS this season in their 5 games and have pulled off 3 outright upsets along with a 3-point loss to Houston as 5.5-point dogs.  Now they get to face Houston again just 2 days after losing to them 119-122.  The Kings will want to avenge that defeat and have a great chance to pull the upset here.  Sacramento is 19-9 ATS in its last 28 games as a road underdog.  Take Sacramento.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Charlotte Hornets -4

The Key: The Charlotte Hornets are one of the most underrated teams in the NBA in the early going.  After narrow losses to the Cavs and Thunder, they have bounced back with an upset win over the Nets are 11.5-point dogs and over the Mavs by 21 as 8-point dogs.  Now they face a depleted Memphis Grizzlies team that is missing Morant, Jackson, Winslow, Porter, Tillie, Tillman, Melton and Allen.  Their first game without Morant did not go well as they were blasted by Boston 107-126.  And it won't go well for them here either against a Hornets team that is healthy and playing well.  The Grizzlies are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 games after trailing their previous game by 20 points or more at halftime.  Memphis is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as a road underdog. The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  Take Charlotte. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Wizards -5.5

The Key: The Washington Wizards are hungry for their first win after opening 0-4 against a tough schedule.  They were competitive in all 4 games with all 4 losses coming by 10 points or fewer.  It was going to take some time for Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook to form some chemistry.  But now with a handful of games under their belts they will start to improve rapidly.  The Wizards want to avenge their 107-115 home loss to the Bulls on Tuesday.  Now they get their rematch just 2 days later and will be the hungrier team, while the Bulls will relax.  And the Wizards should get Rui Hachimura back from an eye injury tonight after he missed the first 4 games.  The Bulls are 17-37 ATS in their last 54 games off a SU win.  Chicago is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 110 points or more in 2 straight games.  Take Washington.

6* Lakers/Spurs NBA *CA$H COW* on San Antonio +5.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers have the unenviable task of getting the opposing teams' best shot night in and night out after winning the title last year.  And there's going to be value in fading the Lakers early in the season.  They are off to a 2-2 start this year with their only wins coming against the Mavericks and Timberwolves, who were both missing key players.  They were upset by both the Clippers and Blazers.  And the Spurs are live underdogs tonight.  San Antonio has a 12-point road win at Memphis and an upset win over Toronto en route to a 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS start.  Their only loss came by 3 points as 4.5-point dogs at New Orleans.  The Lakers are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 games off an ATS loss.  The Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as underdogs.  Take San Antonio.

6* Pelicans/Suns TNT *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 223

The Key: Stan Van Gundy has turned the Pelicans into a defensive juggernaut this season.  The UNDER is 3-0 in their first 3 games this season as they are allowing just 101.7 PPG and 45.1% shooting.  They are also scoring just 103.0 PPG on 43.3% shooting.  Van Gundy has been known for coaching defense throughout the years, and this team needed him.  The Suns have also been great defensively, allowing 102.7 PPG on 44.9% shooting this year.  The UNDER is 3-0 in Suns games as well.  With Chris Paul at PG, they are taking their time to set up the offense, and they have some great defenders down low like Ayton who is an eraser.  This total has been set too high tonight at 223 points given what we've seen so far.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Pelicans last 7 games.  The UNDER is 8-1 in Pelicans last 9 games playing on one days' rest.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Suns last 12 games as home favorites.  Take the UNDER.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -6.5

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are hungry for a victory after opening this season 0-2 with losses to the Kings and Clippers.  They will rebound in a big way tonight against the depleted Houston Rockets, who will be without Eric Gordon, DeMarcus Cousins, John Wall, Ben McLemore and a few others due to quarantine rules.  The Rockets are basically down to James Harden to try and do everything on his own.  It's not going to work against a deep, hungry team like the Nuggets.  The Rockets are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games.  The Nuggets are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games as home favorites.  Take Denver.  

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns -2.5

The Key: I love the situation for the Phoenix Suns today.  They are playing the Kings for a 2nd consecutive day after losing 103-106 in Sacramento on Saturday.  Now they go from being a 3.5-point favorite yesterday to only a 2.5-point favorite today.  The Suns will be the hungrier team to avenge that defeat, and the Kings will relax a little.  The Suns are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall.  Take Phoenix.

6* Saturday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Pacers/Bulls OVER 221.5

The Key: Indiana has made an emphasis on shooting more 3-pointers and pushing the tempo under new head coach Nate Bjorkgren.  They showed that throughout the preseason and again in their opener against the Knicks, a 121-107 victory in which they attempted 34 3-pointers but only made 8 of them at a 23.5% clip.  That's impressive they still scored 121 points.  And now they will shoot much better here against the Bulls.  Chicago lost 104-124 to Atlanta in their opener and gave up 53.7% to the Hawks.  And the Hawks only scored 13 points in the 4th after calling off the dogs in a blowout.  This game should be a little more competitive and it will lead to both teams maximizing their scoring opportunities for 4 quarters.  The Bulls attempted 35 3-pointers against the Hawks and made just 8 of them for a 22.9% clip.  You have to expect both teams to shoot better from 3-point range than they did in their openers, which will help get this OVER the total.  Take the OVER.

6* Mavs/Lakers NBA *CA$H COW* on Dallas +6.5

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers aren't concerned with how they play early in the regular season.  That was evident when they lost to the Clippers 109-116 in their opener.  There is a tax betting on the Lakers after winning the NBA title.  And there's going to be some value fading them early in the season.  I like the price we are getting with the Mavericks here as 6.5-point dogs.  This line is higher than it should be because the Mavericks lost 102-106 to an underrated Suns team in their opener.  They will want to bounce back here and will be excited to play the defending champs.  The Mavericks are 29-13 ATS in their last 42 games off a road loss.  The Lakers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.  Take Dallas.

7* Bucks/Celtics TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -4

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are a regular season team.  They went 56-17 last year during the regular season.  They added former All-Star PG Jrue Holiday, who will be a big upgrade over Eric Bledsoe to go along with starts Giannis Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.  They also added veterans Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes, Torrey Craig and D.J. Augustin.  They have the makings of the best team in the NBA.  The Celtics lost Gordon Hayward and will be without Kemba Walker to open the season.  The Bucks are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS in their last 7 matchups with Boston with all 6 wins coming by 5 points or more.  Take Milwaukee.

6* Warriors/Nets NBA *Total* Annihilator on OVER 232

The Key: This game has shootout written all over it tonight.  The Warriors will have to go small as they will likely be without Draymond Green, their best defender who is doubtful with a foot injury.  The Nets like to play small anyway and are going to be an offensive juggernaut with Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving leading the way.  Expect a fast-paced game with a barrage of 3-pointers from both side.  Stephon Curry being back for the Warriors makes them way better offensively but worse defensively.  Take the OVER.

6* Heat/Lakers Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Miami +6 

The Key: The Miami Heat still haven’t made more 3-pointers than the Lakers in any game this series despite being the 2nd-best 3-point shooting team in the NBA.  And they’ve managed to hang tough despite the Lakers shooting better than they did all season in this series.  The Heat are just the definition of team basketball, which has allowed them to overcome the two superstars of the Lakers in LeBron James and Anthony Davis.  I’m banking on them continuing to overcome the odds again in Game 6 tonight.  And hopefully they can make more 3-pointers than the Lakers in one game this series, which would almost assuredly result in a cover and possible outright win.  Take Miami. 

7* Heat/Lakers Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Heat just got back Bam Adebayo from injury.  They gave won Game 3 outright as 9-point dogs and gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 4 in a 6-point loss.  And now they are catching 7.5-points in Game 5, which is too much.  The Lakers are not the better shooting team in this series, but they have somehow overcome the odds and outshot the Lakers from beyond the arc.  They have 59 made 3-pointers while the Heat only have 45 for the series.  You’d think that would even out as the series goes on.  Maybe this is finally the game where the Heat make more 3’s than they do.  Either way, they will fight scratch and claw for 4 quarters to try and stay alive, and that should be good enough to stay within the number tonight and possibly win outright.  Take Miami.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +7.5

The Key: The Miami Heat showed their resiliency by winning Game 3 outright as 9-point underdogs, 115-104.  Jimmy Butler had a 40-point triple double and willed this team to victory.  And now the Heat should be getting Bam Adebayo back from injury from Game 3. The Lakers made more 3-pointers than the Heat for a 3rd straight games, which was very unlikely when you consider the Heat are a great shooting team while the Lakers are a terrible one.  It’s now 45 to 34 the edge in 3-pointers made for the Lakers in this series.  Look for the Heat to narrow that gap in Game 4 tonight and come away with a cover and possibly another outright victory.  Take Miami.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +9.5

The Key: The Miami Heat will be laying it all on the line tonight.  This is a must-win after falling behind 0-2 in this series.  And this has been a resilient team all year as they have gone 23-8 ATS following a loss this season.  The Lakers have made 31 3-pointers in this series while the Heat have only made 22.  That’s really the difference in the series, and it has been a big upset thus far because the Heat are the way better shooting team when you look at their numbers compared to the Lakers coming into this series.  It will even back out tonight as the Heat have their best shooting game of the series.  Take Miami.

7* NBA Finals Game of the Year on Miami Heat +10

The Key: The Miami Heat are catching double-digits against the Lakers tonight and they shouldn’t be.  This is a huge game for them in this series.  And this is a 5.5-point adjustment from Game 1 where the Heat were +4.5 dogs to close.  I realize Adebayo and Dragic are unlikely to play, but the Heat have the depth to overcome it.  They can go small and give the Lakers some problems.  They are the best shooting team in the NBA from the 3-point line which is a big reason why they have made it this far.  But the Lakers won the 3-point line in Game 1, which is a huge upset.  The Lakers were 15-of-38 while the Heat were only 11-of-35.  Look for a role reversal here.  The Heat shoot 37.4% from 3 on the season and the Lakers only shoot 35% as one of the worst 3-point shooting teams in the NBA.  The Heat are 35-15-2 ATS in their last 52 games off an ATS loss.  Take Miami.

7* Heat/Lakers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +5

The Key: The Miami Heat are 12-3 SU & 12-3 ATS in the postseason.  They play great defense, have tremendous shooting, and have the go-to guy in Jimmy Butler to get it down down the stretch when the games are tight.  They match up well with the Lakers because they have guys who can handle Anthony Davis and LeBron James defensively.  And the Lakers just don’t have the depth outside those two superstars to match up with the Heat.  This line is way off in Game 1 tonight with the Heat catching 5 points.  Take Miami.

6* Celtics/Heat Game 6 *CA$H COW* on Miami +3.5

The Key: The Miami Heat are 11-3 SU & 11-3 ATS in the playoffs.  Every time they have lost they have bounced back with a win and cover.  They are a resilient team and realize they need to step on Boston’s throat after letting them win Game 5.  I think Jimmy Butler and company will rise to the occasion in Game 6 and close out this series.  The Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games off an ATS win.  The Heat are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games off a SU loss.  The Heat are also 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games off an ATS loss.  Take Miami.

6* Nuggets/Lakers Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Denver +5

The Key: The Nuggets are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 playoff games when trailing in a series.  They came back from 3-1 deficits in the first 2 rounds of the playoffs this year.  And they certainly believe they can still come back and win this series after giving the Lakers all they wanted and more through the first 4 games.  Take Denver.

7* Heat/Celtics Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -3

The Key: The Boston Celtics have responded every time they’ve had some adversity.  They won Game 7 against the Raptors, and they won Game 3 after falling into an 0-2 hole to the Heat.  With their season on the line tonight they will respond again.  The Celtics are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 playoff games as a favorite.  Boston is 7-1-1 ATS in its last 9 games off an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 18-9 ATS off a SU loss this season.  The Celtics are 20-11 ATS when revenging a loss this year.  Take Boston.

7* Celtics/Heat Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +3

The Key: This game is likely to go down to the wire and it’s clear the Miami Heat are better in clutch moments in these playoffs.  So I’ll trust them here catching 3 points.  They had a chance to win late in Game 3 after taking the first 2 games of this series despite shooting terribly.  The Heat shot 38.8% in Game 3 compared to 48.2% for Boston.  There won’t be that big of a disparity again, and the Heat certainly won’t shoot as poorly as they did from the 3-point line, where they were 12-of-44 (27.3%).  The Heat are 10-2 SU & 10-2 ATS in the playoffs this year.  The Heat are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games off a loss.  The Heat are 40-18 ATS in their last 58 games playing on 3 or more days rest.  Take Miami.

7* Nuggets/Lakers Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +6.5

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are very comfortable being down in a series.  They gave the Lakers all they could handle in Game 2 and probably should have won, but lost at the buzzer.  They’ll come back in Game 3 with their best effort of the series.  The Nuggets are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games when trailing in the series.  Take Denver.

6* Nuggets/Lakers Game 2 *Total* Annihilator on OVER 213.5

The Key: The OVER is 21-7-2 in the last 30 matchups in this series.  The OVER is 4-0 in the last 4 matchups with combined scores of 240, 245, 236 and 232 points.  This is about as easy as it gets after they combined for 240 in Game 1.  They might not score that many points, but they will score enough to top this very low 213.5-point total.  Take the OVER.

6* Celtics/Heat Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Boston -3

The Key: The Boston Celtics are in must-win mode here in Game 3.  They did themselves no favors in Game 2 by turning the ball over 20 times and lost 101-106 after blowing a big lead.  They also lost in overtime in Game 1, so this is a really close series.  I think the intensity level the Celtics play with compared to the Heat will be massive in this game.  Look for the Heat to relax just enough to allow the Celtics to win and cover this game.  Boston is 19-6 ATS when playing 4 or fewer games in 10 days this year.  The Celtics are 46-25 ATS in their last 71 games off 2 straight losses by 6 points or less.  Boston is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games off an ATS loss.  The Celtics are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 playoff games as favorites.  Take Boston.

7* Nuggets/Lakers Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -7

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are coming off their 2nd straight 7-game series.  They almost have to be running on fumes right now, at least for Game 1 of this series with the Lakers.  They did not respond well in Game 1 last series against the Clippers following a 7-game series against the Jazz.  They lost to the Clippers by 23 in Game 1.  I think the Lakers can put it on them early and pull away to a blowout victory as well.  The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall with 4 straight wins over the Rockets by 8 points or more to close out last series.  Take Los Angeles.

6* Heat/Celtics Game 2 *CA$H COW* on Miami +2.5

The Key: The Miami Heat show no mercy.  They are 9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in the playoffs this year.  They took the Bucks out in 5 games and really outplayed them even before Giannis got hurt, which is saying something because the Bucks were arguably the best team in the NBA.  And they came up clutch in Game 1 and won in OT.  It’s a Heat team playing with so much confidence right now that it’s just tough to bet against them.  And here they are again getting no respect from oddsmakers as 2.5-point dogs in Game 2.  They play great defense and have 3-point shooters everywhere, plus the best closer in Jimmy Butler.  Take Miami.

7* Nuggets/Clippers Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on UNDER 208.5

The Key: Game 7 UNDERS are one of the best bets in the NBA.  The pressure is huge for these Game 7’s, and they tend to be played at a snail’s pace because of it.  The Denver Nuggets have played 3 Game 7’s the past 2 seasons and we saw them combine for 176 points with the Spurs, 196 with the Blazers and 158 with the Jazz.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Nuggets last 7 games overall.  The UNDER is 5-0-2 in Clippers last 7 games overall.  Take the UNDER.

6* Clippers/Nuggets Game 6 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 215

The Key: The Clippers and Nuggets combined for 181 points in Game 4 and 216 points in Game 5.  I expect this total to fall somewhere in the middle close to 200 combined points.  The Nuggets scored 38 points in the 4th quarter of their Game 5 comeback win that pushed that up to 216.  They just went off from the 3-point line.  That’s unlikely to happen again, and this will be a half court game.  Take the UNDER.

6* Rockets/Lakers Game 5 *CA$H COW* on Houston +6.5

The Key: We’re getting he best price we’ve gotten on Houston all series in Game 5 tonight as 6.5-point dogs.  That’s because they have failed to cover in each of their last 3 games against the Lakers, but it’s not like any of them were blowouts.  They lost all 3 by 10 points or fewer.  With their season on the line, expect a big performance from the Rockets in desperation mode in Game 5.  Houston is 15-5 ATS when playing with double revenge over the last 2 years.  Take Houston.

7* Celtics/Raptors Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -2.5

The Key: This series is tied 3-3, but it’s clear the Boston Celtics are the better team.  They have outscored the Raptors by a combined 43 points in their 3 wins, while the Raptors have only outscored the Celtics by a combined 11 points in their 3 victories.  So the Celtics have outscored the Raptors by a total of 32 points in this series, or by an average of 5.3 PPG.  I like the price on the Celtics here as only 2.5-point favorites in Game 7.  Boston is 8-1 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite this year.  The Celtics are 12-2 ATS in road games off a loss this year.  The Celtics are 21-6-1 ATS in their last 28 playoff games as a favorite.  Take Boston.

7* NBA 2nd Round Total of the Year on Lakers/Rockets UNDER 219.5

The Key: We’ve seen all these playoff series get lower and lower scoring as they progress.  And this Lakers/Rockets series should be no different.  After combining for 226 points in Game 2, the Lakers and Rockets only combined for 214 points in Game 3.  And I see more of the same here in Game 4.  Houston is 21-11 UNDER off a loss this season.  Houston is 17-4 UNDER revenging a home loss over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* NBA 2nd Round Game of the Year on Denver Nuggets +8

The Key: The Denver Nuggets won Game 2 outright as 8.5-point dogs and covered in Game 3 in a 6-point loss as 8.5-point dogs.  Oddsmakers just aren’t giving them the respect they deserve here on a neutral court as 8-point dogs again for Game 4.  This is a big game for the Nuggets to try and get back into this series and square it up at 2-2.  They will be the hungrier team and will be playing like it.  The Nuggets are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.  Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 conference semifinals games.  Take Denver.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee +4

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks went from being basically 5-point favorites in the first 3 games of this series to now underdogs.  They were 2.5-point dogs in Game 4 with the uncertainty surrounding Giannis.  He played and got off to a quick start before injuring his ankle again.  He didn’t play the entire 2nd half and the Bucks still won 118-115 (OT).  Now the Bucks are 4-point dogs in Game 5, basically a 9-point adjustment for likely being without Giannis, and I don’t agree with it.  The Bucks aren’t 9 points worse without him.  They actually can space the floor better because the Heat can’t sink in on Giannis like they have been doing.  Now the Heat have to play the Bucks more straight up because of all the great shooters on their team.  And the Heat have some injuries of their own that are flying under the radar as Herro, Crowder and Olynyk are all questionable to play tonight.  Giannis is also technically questionable and not officially out yet.  The Bucks will be playing with a ton of confidence tonight after pulling out Game 4 in OT and staying alive.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Celtics/Raptors Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -1.5

The Key: The Boston Celtics had a terrible shooting night in Game 4 and lost 93-100.  They made just 7 3-pointers compared to 17 for the Raptors.  Just shoot the ball a little better and they would have won that game.  That’s what I’m expecting to happen for them here in Game 5 as they grab back control of this series.  The Celtics are 27-12 ATS against teams with winning records this season and I trust head coach Brad Stevens to get them to respond today.  Take Boston.

7* Rockets/Lakers Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -5.5

The Key: Rust has played a factor in the Lakers losing both Game 1’s in these playoffs.  They didn’t all play together in the bubble and it hurt them in their upset loss to the Blazers in Game 1 last round.  And having 6 days off prior to this series with Houston hurt them in Game 1.  The Lakers will be much sharper in Game 2 tonight and their massive advantages in this series will show through.  They actually got out rebounded by the Rockets in Game 1, which should never happen with their size.  They won’t let it happen again, and they can’t shoot it much worse than they did in Game 1.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Raptors/Celtics Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +2

The Key: The Toronto Raptors went from being favorites in the first 3 games of this series to now 2-point dogs in Game 4.  I like this price we are getting on the Raptors who have to be feeling very confident after beating the Celtics at the buzzer in Game 3 to avoid an 0-3 hole.  The Raptors just need to shoot it better and they’ll get right back in this series, which seems like an easy fix.  Toronto is shooting just 28.3% from 3-point range in this series compared to 38.7% for Boston.  The Raptors are 26-11 ATS in their last 37 games after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 ATS.  The Raptors are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games.  Take Toronto.

7* Bucks/Heat Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -5

The Key: The Miami Heat should not be getting this much respect from the books.  They were 5-point dogs in Game 1 and 5.5-point dogs in Game 2 and won both outright to improve to 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS in the playoffs.  But now they are back down to only 5-point dogs in Game 3, a game that the Milwaukee Bucks simply have to have.  Look for the Bucks to be the team playing with the sense of urgency here down 0-2 and for the Heat to have their worst performance of the series knowing that they have some breathing room.  I expect the Bucks to win this game with plenty of room to spare by double-digits.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Raptors/Celtics Game 3 *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto -2

The Key: The Toronto Raptors have to win this game to get back in this series.  They are down 2-0 because Boston has shot lights out while Toronto couldn’t have been colder.  The Celtics are shooting 41.6% with 32 made 3’s in this series while the Raptors are shooting 26.3% with only 21 made 3’s.  It took an out of this world performance from Marcus Smart and his 5 3’s in the 4th quarter for the Celtics to win Game 2.  The Raptors will return the favor in Game 3 tonight.  Take Toronto.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks were at a huge disadvantage in Game 1 and I cashed in the Heat +5.5 because of it.  But I’m taking the Bucks in Game 1 tonight because that advantage no longer exists for the Heat.  The Heat had 7 days to get ready for the Bucks while the Bucks only had 1 day to get ready for the Heat.  But now the Bucks will be much more prepared here in Game 2 with another day of practice in between games to figure out the right strategy for the Heat.  The Bucks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 off a loss by more than 10 points, and the Heat are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 7 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver ML -105

The Key: The Denver Nuggets have all the momentum now after storming back from a 3-1 deficit to win the last 2 games by double-digits.  Jamal Murray has been unstoppable, and will continue to be tonight.  The Nuggets won a Game 7 against the Spurs last year so they won’t shy from the pressure.  And all the pressure feels like it’s on the Jazz in this one.  And the Nuggets have Gary Harris back healthy now to give Donovan Mitchell another look defensively after Mitchell had torched the Nuggets before his return.  The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in the last 9 matchups.  Take Denver on the Money Line.

7* Heat/Bucks Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Miami +5.5

The Key: The Miami Heat went 2-0 against the Milwaukee Bucks during the regular season before the bubble.  They won 105-89 as 4.5-point home dogs and 131-126 as 11.5-point road dogs.  I’m willing to not count their 116-130 loss to the Bucks in the bubble as 10-point dogs because both Jimmy Butler and Goran Dragic sat out that game, and those are their two best players.  The Bucks let the Magic hang around the entire season despite a plethora of injuries for the Magic, including to their best player in Aaron Gordon, who didn’t play the entire series.  The Heat swept the Pacers and won all 4 games by at least 9 points each.  The Bucks have their hands full with the Heat starting with Game 1 of this series.  The Heat have had the last 6 days off to prepare for Milwaukee, while the Bucks only have one day to get ready for Miami after playing on Saturday.  Take Miami.

6* Nuggets/Jazz Game 6 *BAILOUT* on Denver +2.5

The Key: The Denver Nuggets came up clutch down 3-1 and won 117-107 in Game 5.  I think they take a lot of confidence from that effort and force a Game 7 with another win in Game 6 tonight.  The Jazz aren’t going to keep shooting this well throughout the playoffs as they have shot 50% or better throughout the playoffs.  Mike Malone will make some defensive adjustments as he’s had a few extra days to get his Nuggets ready for Game 6.  The Jazz are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  The Nuggets are 6-2 ATS in the last 8 matchups.  Take Denver.

7* NBA 1st Round Total of the Year on Magic/Bucks UNDER 225.5

The Key: The last 2 games in this series have seen 228 and 227 combined points after a 207-point output in Game 2.  The reason is simple.  Both the Magic and Bucks have shot lights out from 3-point range.  They have both shot at least 40% in each of the last 2 games with the Bucks 34-of-78 (43.6%) and the Magic 37-of-85 (43.5%).  I just cannot see this continuing, and as a result I love the UNDER 225.5 points in Game 5 today.  We just need a slight dip in 3-point shooting from one or both of these teams to cash this UNDER.  Take the UNDER.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 5 *HEAVY HITTER* on Denver +3

The Key: The Denver Nuggets are in a must-win tonight to keep their season alive.  They battled hard in Game 4 but came up 2 points short.  The Jazz shot nearly 58% as a team and attempted 23 more free throws than the Nuggets.  Only a slight improvement in both categories should have the Nuggets winning this game outright.  The Jazz are 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 games as favorites.  Take Denver.

7* Pacers/Heat Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Indiana +6

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are a prideful team that won’t just lay down and die for the Miami Heat.  The Pacers have been in every game this series with all 3 games decided by 12 points or fewer.  And I think we are getting them at their best price of the series here as +6 dogs in Game 4.  The Heat are 10-21 ATS after scoring 115 points or more this year.  The Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games off a loss.  The Heat are 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games off a win.  Take Indiana.

6* Bucks/Magic Game 4 *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 225.5

The Key: The Bucks shot 56.1% in Game 3 and that game still only saw 228 combined points.  The Bucks won’t shoot that well again, and this game will stay UNDER the posted total of 225.5 as a result.  This is the pivotal game of the series where the Magic will either get back in it, or the Bucks will take control.  So expect the defensive intensity to be very high in this one on both sides.  The UNDER is 5-2-1 in the last 8 matchups.  Take the UNDER.

7* Celtics/76ers Game 4 *HEAVY HITTER* on Philadelphia +8

The Key: The Philadelphia 76ers are playing for their season today down 0-3 in this series.  They were competitive in Games 1 and 3 with a pair of 8-point losses.  And now they are 8-point dogs in Game 4 after not being more than 6-point dogs in any other game in this series thus far.  I like the price we are getting with them here.  The 76ers are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games off 3 or more consecutive ATS losses.  Take Philadelphia.

6* Rockets/Thunder Game 3 *CA$H COW* on Oklahoma City +3.5

The Key: The Oklahoma City Thunder are in must-win mode in Game 3 after losing the first 2 games of this series to the Rockets.  They choked away Game 2 in the 2nd half and went ice cold from the field.  They scored 59 points in the 1st half but just 39 points after intermission.  Look for them to put it all together and for the Rockets to relax in Game 3 with a 2-0 lead.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* NBA 1st Round Game of the Year on Indiana Pacers +5

The Key: The Indiana Pacers are in must-win mode in Game 3 after dropping the first 2 games of this series.  They were competitive in the first two games but couldn’t get it done in the 2nd half.  They will put it all together in what is essentially a win or go home game for them.  And I also expect the Heat to relax just enough with a comfortable 2-0 lead to let the Pacers have their way today.  Take Indiana.

7* Mavericks/Clippers Game 2 *BAILOUT* on Los Angeles -5

The Key: The Los Angeles Clippers will respond Friday after getting embarrassed by the Dallas Mavericks in Game 2.  It’s a Clippers team that was missing a lot of pieces during the restart, so it’s no wonder they have opened this season a bit rusty.  Look for them to put it all together in Game 3 and take back control of this series.  The Clippers are 17-5 ATS off a loss this season.  Take Los Angeles.

7* Magic/Bucks Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Milwaukee -12.5

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks were embarrassed in Game 1 by the Orlando Magic, 110-122 as 13.5-point favorites.  Now they are shorter favorites in Game 2 and I think we see a role reversal here with the Bucks dominating from start to finish.  They’ll be playing with a sense of urgency today, something they did not do in Game 1.  Milwaukee is 14-3 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite over the last 3 years.  They are coming back to win by 13 PPG on average in this situation.  The Magic are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 against a team with a winning record.  The Bucks are 31-14 ATS in their last 45 games off a SU loss.  Take Milwaukee.

7* Jazz/Nuggets Game 2 *HEAVY HITTER* on Utah +4

The Key: The Utah Jazz forced overtime in Game 1 despite shooting just 16 for 47 (34%) from 3 while Denver shot 22 for 41 (53.7%).  Look for the Jazz to pull the upset in Game 2 as the Nuggets don’t have an answer for Donovan Mitchell, who scored 57 points in the opener.  And I fully expect him to get more help from his role players in this one, especially from 3-point range.  The Jazz are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as underdogs.  Take Utah.

7* Blazers/Lakers Game 1 *BAILOUT* on Portland +6.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers just had a knack for playing in close games in the restart and that will continue in Game 1 tonight.  All 9 of their games were decided by 10 points or fewer, including 7 by 5 points or less.  They have an unstoppable offense that will challenge the Lakers, who are without 2 key defenders on the perimeter in Avery Bradley and Rajon Rondo.  They’re going to have a very hard time matching up with Lillard and McCollum.  The Lakers went 3-5 SU & 1-7 ATS in the restart, and I have a hard time believing they can just flip a switch here in Game 1.  It’s going to take them a few games to gel, while the Blazers have already gelled as a team with all of the meaningful games they’ve played thus far.  The Blazers are 16-2 ATS in their last 18 games off 3 straight wins by 6 points or less.  The Blazers are 46-22 ATS in the last 68 matchups.  Take Portland.

7* 76ers/Celtics Game 1 *HEAVY HITTER* on Boston -6

The Key: The Boston Celtics enter the playoffs fully healthy and ready to go for a title.  The same cannot be said for the 76ers, who lost Ben Simmons to a season-ending injury in the bubble and Joel Embiid is nursing a hand injury.  The Celtics will make easy work of the short-handed 76ers in Game 1 of this series tonight.  The Celtics are 10-1 ATS in road games off a loss this season.  Boston is 13-2 ATS when playing 4 or less games in 10 days this year.  Philadelphia is 6-22 ATS off 2 or more consecutive ATS wins over the last 2 years.  The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games off a win by more than 10 points.  Take Boston.

7* Blazers/Grizzlies *Total* Annihilator on UNDER 232

The Key: There’s always more defense played in playoff games.  And given what’s at stake here for these teams with win or go home for Memphis, defense will be played at a high level.  The 1st meeting between these teams this season saw just 215 combined points.  The 2nd meeting did have 275 combined points, but that was in overtime.  I think we see a similar result to the first meeting given the situation.  Memphis is 18-5 UNDER vs. teams who score 110+ PPG in the 2nd half of the season this season.  Memphis is 12-1 UNDER in road games when playing 8 or more games in 14 days over the last 2 years.  Take the UNDER.

7* Blazers/Nets TNT *BAILOUT* on Brooklyn +10

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are getting too much respect from oddsmakers tonight.  They are 5-2 since the restart and on the verge of making the playoffs, but those 5 wins all came by 10 points or less.  In fact, all 7 of their games have been decided by 10 points or less thus far.  Brooklyn is playing too well right now to be catching this many points.  The Nets are 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  Three of those wins came against playoff teams with upsets over Milwaukee as 19-point dogs, the Clippers as 9-point dogs and the Magic as 4.5-point dogs.  The Nets are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games playing on one days’ rest.  Take Brooklyn.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat -2

The Key: The situation is a much better one for the Miami Heat than it is for the Oklahoma City Thunder tonight.  The Heat are almost at full strength with the exception of Kendrick Nunn.  The Thunder are without Schroder and likely to be without Gilgeous-Alexander, Adams and Gallinari again tonight.  The Heat should be much bigger favorites given their advantage in the health department.  The Thunder are likely to not take any chances here with their injured players.  Take Miami.

7* Blazers/Mavs TNT *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -4.5

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are in 9th place, but just a half-game ahead of both Phoenix and San Antonio.  Whoever finishes 8th and 9th will be in a playoff to be the 8th seed.  This game matters a lot more to Portland than it does Dallas, which all but appears locked into 7th.  And the Mavericks could be without both Doncic and Porzingis again tonight after both sat out last game for precautionary reasons.  The Blazers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall and will continue their stellar play tonight as they make their push to make the playoffs.  Take Portland.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Phoenix Suns -9.5

The Key: The Phoenix Suns are 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS since the restart to pull within a half-game of the 9th spot in the West.  They are trying desperately to make the playoffs and are handling the pressure of the situation well.  The Philadelphia 76ers are looking to get healthy before the playoffs as that is their top priority right now.  They were already without Ben Simmons for the season, and now both Joel Embiid and Josh Richardson have been ruled out tonight.  Plus Al Horford and Tobias Harris are questionable with ankle injuries.  They are looking at essentially sitting their entire starting 5 for this one.  The 76ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Take Phoenix.

6* Lakers/Nuggets Western Conference *BAILOUT* on Denver +5

The Key: The Los Angeles Lakers already have the top seed in the West and can’t be trusted to be laying points tonight.  They are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games while losing those 3 games by a combined 40 points.  The Denver Nuggets have gone 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games and are getting healthier.  They have more incentive to play well than the Lakers do right now as the Nuggets are fighting for playoff positioning in the crowded West.  Take Denver.

7* Raptors/Bucks ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Toronto +7.5

The Key: The Toronto Raptors are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS since the restart and playing with a sense of urgency.  The Milwaukee Bucks already have the top seed in the East and are not playing with a sense of urgency at all.  The Bucks are just 2-3 SU & 1-3-1 ATS in their 5 games since the restart.  Take Toronto.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on Memphis Grizzlies +7

The Key: No analysis Sunday.

6* Lakers/Pacers TNT *CA$H COW* on Indiana +7

The Key: The Lakers have clinched the top seed in the West and don’t have anything to play for.  They are playing like it as they have gone 2-3 SU & 1-4 ATS since the restart with 2 straight blowout losses to OKC by 19 and Houston by 16.  They should not be 7-point favorites against the Pacers today.  Indiana is 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS since the restart and trying to improve its seeding in the East.  The Lakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games when playing their 4th road game in 7 days.  Take Indiana.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Denver Nuggets -1.5

The Key: The Utah Jazz will be playing for a second consecutive day after falling 111-119 to San Antonio yesterday.  And it’s unsure whether Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Royce O’Neale will play today.  The Jazz are already without Bojan Bogdanovic and his 20 PPG.  They aren’t very deep and will struggle against the rested Nuggets, who had yesterday off.  The Jazz are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 0 days’ rest.  Take Denver.

7* NBA Non-Conference *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans Pelicans -7.5

The Key: The Pelicans are in must-win mode trying to make the playoffs in the West.  The Washington Wizards are 0-4 since the restart and won’t be making the playoffs.  They will find it hard to be motivated from here on out.  The Wizards have lost all 4 games by 8 points or more, and that’s all it will take for the Pelicans to cover this spread tonight.  Washington hasn’t even been competitive due to all of their injuries.  New Orleans is 12-3 ATS in road games off an upset loss as a favorite over the last 2 years.  The Wizards are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games as underdogs.  The Pelicans are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after yielding more than 125 points in their previous game.  Take New Orleans.

7* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Portland Trail Blazers -4

The Key: I like the situation for the Blazers tonight.  They are pushing to make the playoffs and playing every game like a must-win.  The Denver Nuggets are just playing for playoff positioning.  And the Nuggets will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after a tough 132-126 win over San Antonio last night, while Portland had yesterday off.  Take Portland.

7* Nets/Celtics ESPN *BAILOUT* on Boston -8.5

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets just pulled off the biggest upset in NBA history with their 119-116 win over the Milwaukee Bucks as 19-point dogs.  The Nets are down to the last players on their bench, and the Bucks were sitting starters at crucial points in the game because they already have the No. 1 seed wrapped up.  The Nets will now be playing the second of a back-to-back, which is an even worse situation for them than most teams given how short-handed they are.  And it’s a letdown spot off such a big win.  The Celtics will be focused after starting 1-2 out of the break with losses to Milwaukee by 7 and Miami by 6.  They are playing for playoff positioning and want to keep a Top 3 seed so they can avoid Milwaukee in the 2nd round.  Boston is 9-1 ATS in road games off a loss this season.  Take Boston.

7* Rockets/Blazers TNT *BAILOUT* on Portland +4

The Key: The Portland Trail Blazers are 2 games behind the Grizzlies for the 8th seed in the West.  They need wins more than the Houston Rockets, who are simply playing for playoff positioning.  After 2 narrow wins by a combined 8 points in their last 2 games, the Rockets will run out of luck tonight.  The Blazers are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Houston in 2020 with a 10-point win as 8.5-point dogs and a 13-point win as 5-point dogs.  The Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites.  The Blazers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games against a team with a winning record.  Take Portland.

7* Grizzlies/Pelicans ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -4.5

The Key: This is a must-win game for the Pelicans.  They have dropped their first 2 games back and sit 3.5 games behind the Grizzlies for the 8th seed.  They have to be within 4 games of the 8th place team to get a play-in game.  They catch the Grizzlies at a good time as they will be playing the 2nd of a back-to-back and 3rd game in 4 days.  The Pelicans had yesterday off and will be plenty rested after getting blown out by the Clippers on Saturday.  The Pelicans are 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS against Memphis this year winning 126-116 and 139-111.  The Pelicans are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games against a team with a losing record.  The Pelicans are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after yielding more than 125 points in their previous game.  Take New Orleans.

7* Mavs/Suns NBA *BAILOUT* on Phoenix +6

The Key: The Phoenix Suns need wins more right now as they are trying to stay alive for the 8th seed in the West.  The Dallas Mavericks are simply playing for playoff positioning.  The Suns looked great in their 125-112 win over Washington.  They had 6 players score in double figures in that win and play well together as a team.  And I like them to give the Mavericks a run for their money today.  The Suns won 133-104 as 7-point dogs in their last meeting at Dallas on January 28th.  Take Phoenix.

7* Jazz/Thunder NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Oklahoma City -2

The Key: The Utah Jazz are without their 2nd-leading scorer in Bojan Bogdonavic, who averages over 20 PPG.  They were able to escape with a come from behind 106-104 win over the Pelicans in their opener.  They won’t be so fortunate against the Oakland City Thunder, who are fully healthy for the restart.  The Thunder are 19-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this season.  Take Oklahoma City.

7* Grizzlies/Blazers NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on Portland -2.5

The Key: No analysis Friday.

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Washington Wizards +7.5

The Key: No analysis Friday.

7* Jazz/Pelicans NBA *HEAVY HITTER* on New Orleans -2 

The Key: The Pelicans won all 3 of their scrimmages and are now 11-5 in their last 16 games overall.  They are completely healthy and loaded for this restart.  The same cannot be said for the Jazz, who are without Bojan Bogdonovic (20.2 PPG) for the remainder of the season after he had wrist surgery in May.  The Pelicans need wins more as they are on the outside looking in in terms of the playoffs.  Take New Orleans. 

6* Nuggets/Mavericks ESPN *CA$H COW* on Denver -1 

The Key: This is a bad situation for the Dallas Mavericks tonight.  They will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 7th game in 11 days after a 109-119 loss in San Antonio last night.  They are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall and are struggling due to injuries. Luka Doncic is playing through a wrist injury that is clearly hampering him, and they have 5 other players either out or questionable tonight.  The Nuggets are fully healthy and had yesterday off.  The Nuggets are 4-1 SU in their last 5 matchups with the Mavericks.  Dallas is 4-12 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 this year.  The Mavericks are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record.  Take Denver. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Atlanta Hawks -4.5 

The Key: This is a bad situation for the New York Knicks tonight.  They will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after losing a 115-122 shootout in Washington last night.  The Hawks had yesterday off and will be playing just their 4th game in 9 days.  Atlanta is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 home games after allowing 130 points or more.  The Knicks are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games as road underdogs.  The Hawks are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 home games, including 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games as home favorites.  Take Atlanta. 

6* Tuesday NBA *Total* Annihilator on Cavs/Bulls OVER 215.5 

The Key: Now that Coby White is running the show the Bulls have been a much better offensive team.  White is has scored at least 19 points in 8 straight games while averaging 26.9 PPG.  And the Bulls just got back 3 of their top 5 scorers in Lauri Markkanen (14.7 PPG), Wendell Carter Jr. (11.1 PPG) & Otto Porter Jr. (11.7 PPG).  The Bulls are averaging 112.7 PPG in their last 7 contests.  But they have allowed 103 or more points in 17 straight games with the OVER going 12-5 in those games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Cleveland’s last 5 games and they have combined for 217 or more points in 5 of their last 6.  Bets on the OVER on road teams with a total of 210 or more off a close home win by 3 points or less, a tired team playing their 3rd game in 4 days are 24-7 over the last 5 years.  Take the OVER. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Memphis Grizzlies -2.5 

The Key: This is a tough situation for the Orlando Magic tonight.  They will be playing their 4th road game in 7 days and coming off a stunning upset win at Houston.  It has the makings of a letdown for the Magic tonight.  The Grizzlies are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with their 4 wins coming by a whopping 28 PPG.  That includes their 17-point home win over the Lakers.  Memphis is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 home games after winning 4 or 5 of its last 6 games.  The Grizzlies are 10-1 ATS when playing against a team that wins between 40% and 49% of their games this year.  The Grizzlies are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.  The Grizzlies are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 home matchups with Orlando.  Take Memphis. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Utah Jazz -4 

The Key: The Utah Jazz have won 5 straight games all by 5 points or more.  They will make it 6 in a row tonight as they take down the tired Toronto Raptors.  The Raptors will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after a win in Sacramento last night.  They had to gut out that win over the Kings in the final seconds, which forced them to play their starters a ton of minutes.  Toronto had all 5 starters play at least 35 minutes in that contest.  It gets much tougher tonight with the thin air they’ll be dealing with in Utah’s altitude.  Bets against road underdogs who have won 15 or more of their last 20 games with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 77-41 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Utah. 

6* Bucks/Nuggets NBA TV *CA$H COW* on Denver -5.5 

The Key: The Milwaukee Bucks are playing without Giannis Antetokounmpo again tonight.  The Bucks are 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last 3 road games with losses at Miami by 16, LA Lakers by 10 and Phoenix by 9.  And they even had Giannis for those first 2 games.  The situation couldn’t be much worse for the Bucks tonight.  They’ll be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 6th game in 9 days to start the month of March.  They will also be playing in their 6th different city this month, so the travel has been brutal.  And they’ll be playing in thin air tonight in the altitude in Denver.  They face a hungry Nuggets team off 2 recent upset losses to Cleveland and Golden State.  The Nuggets are 24-8 at home this year and were the best home team in the NBA last year.  The Bucks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games.  The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.  The Nuggets are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as home favorites.  The Bucks are 6-13-1 ATS in their last 20 matchups in Denver.  Take Denver. 

6* Lakers/Clippers ABC *CA$H COW* on Los Angeles Lakers +2.5 

The Key: The Lakers have lost their first 2 matchups with the Clippers this season.  They want to avenge those 2 defeats and prove they can beat the Clippers, just like they proved they could beat the Bucks last game in a 113-103 home win.  The Lakers are now 10-1 SU & 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall and playing their best basketball of the season.  The Lakers are 9-1 ATS when revenging a home loss this season.  The Clippers are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games after 2 consecutive covers as a favorite.  Take the Lakers. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Detroit Pistons +8 

The Key: This is a difficult situation for the Utah Jazz tonight.  They are coming off a 99-94 win in Boston last night.  They’ll now be playing for a 2nd consecutive day, their 3rd road game in 4 days and their 4th straight road game overall.  They won’t have much left in the tank for the Pistons tonight, and they won’t be nearly as hungry to face Detroit as they were Boston.  The Pistons come in on 2 days’ rest and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days.  They are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall with only a 3-point loss at Portland, a 6-point loss at Sacramento and a 7-point home loss to OKC.  They also upset Phoenix on the road as 9-point dogs.  The Pistons are 15-3 ATS in March games over the last 2 years.  The Jazz are 2-11-2 ATS in their last 15 games as favorites.  The Pistons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on 2 days’ rest.  Take Detroit. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Charlotte Hornets +8.5 

The Key: The Charlotte Hornets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall with 5 upset wins outright.  They also nearly upset the Bucks, Spurs and Nuggets, losing by 8, 1, and 2 points to those 3, respectively.  So they can definitely hang with the Houston Rockets tonight, who will be without 2 of their top 3 scorers in Russell Westbrook and Eric Gordon.  Houston is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games as a road favorite.  The Hornets are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 home games following a loss by 6 points or fewer.  Take Charlotte. 

7* Bucks/Lakers ESPN *HEAVY HITTER* on Los Angeles -1 

The Key: The Lakers have won 9 of their last 10 games and are ready to take down the Milwaukee Bucks at home tonight and avenge an earlier road defeat to them by 7 points.  We saw the Bucks struggle in their last 2 road games losing by 16 at Miami and failing to cover a huge spread at Charlotte in an 8-point win.  The Lakers come in on 2 days’ rest while the Bucks will be playing in their 4th different city in 6 days.  Bets against road underdogs who have won 15 or more of their last 20 games with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 76-39 ATS over the last 5 years.  Take Los Angeles. 

6* Heat/Pelicans ESPN *CA$H COW* on New Orleans -1.5 

The Key: The New Orleans Pelicans are back home following an overtime loss at Dallas on Wednesday.  It was their 3rd straight tough loss all by 8 points or less.  The Pelicans will be hungry for a victory at home tonight against the Miami Heat, who have struggled on the road all season.  The Heat are just 13-18 SU & 12-18-1 ATS in all road games this year.  Miami is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games.  The Heat are 8-20-1 ATS in their last 29 games off a win.  Miami is 0-4 ATS in its last 4 against a team with a losing record.  The Pelicans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.  Miami is 1-11 ATS in its last 12 road games against teams that allow 110 PPG or more.  Take New Orleans. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Sacramento Kings -5 

The Key: The Sacramento Kings are playing their way into playoff contention as they are just 3.5 games behind Memphis for the 8th seed.  The Kings are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall which includes wins against playoff teams in Memphis (twice) and the Clippers.  Their only loss came by 4 points at OKC as 7-point dogs.  They will handle the short-handed 76ers tonight.  The 76ers are playing without 3 starters right now in Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons and Josh Richardson.  They will be playing their 3rd straight road games tonight after road losses to the Clippers and Lakers.  The 76ers are 9-23 SU & 8-22-2 ATS in road games this year.  Philadelphia is 5-20-1 ATS in its last 26 road games.  The 76ers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 games as road underdogs.  The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.  The Kings are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  Take Sacramento. 

6* NBA Non-Conference *CA$H COW* on Chicago Bulls +3 

The Key: The Minnesota Timberwolves put a lot into their 139-134 upset win at New Orleans as 10.5-point dogs last night.  Now they will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day and their 7th game in 11 days.  The Bulls had yesterday off and are 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall with upset wins over the Wizards by 9 and the Mavericks by 2.  The Bulls just got back Otto Porter Jr. and Wendell Carter Jr. from injury and could get back Lauri Markkanen tonight.  They will be a sneaky team moving forward the healthier they get.  The Timberwolves are just 3-20 SU & 5-18 ATS in their last 23 games overall.  That includes 1-11 SU & 1-11 ATS in their last 12 home games.  They should not be favored over the Bulls tonight given the situation.  The Bulls are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 road games after covering 3 of their last 4 ATS.  Take Chicago. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Orlando Magic +7 

The Key: The situation couldn’t be much worse for the Miami Heat tonight.  They are coming off 3 straight wins and just upset the Milwaukee Bucks at home on Monday.  They won’t be nearly as hungry to face the Magic tonight, especially after already beating the Magic in their last 2 matchups in 2020.  Orlando will be playing with a chip on its shoulder off an upset home loss to the Blazers and to avenge those 2 H2H defeats.  The Magic are fighting to make the playoffs and will give the Heat more than they bargained for tonight.  The Magic are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.  Steve Clifford is 14-4 ATS in road games after covering 4 of their last 5 games as the coach of Orlando.  The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games off a win.  Take Orlando. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Brooklyn Nets +9 

The Key: The Brooklyn Nets are hungry for a win after dropping 4 straight games with 3 of those losses coming by 4 points or less.  They are trying to hold on to a playoff spot in the East.  The Nets come in on 2 days’ rest and will be ready to try and take down the Celtics tonight.  The Nets have been playing well for over a month as they have only lost one of their last 14 games by more than 8 points, which makes for a 13-1 angle backing the Nets when you factor in this 9-point spread.  The Celtics will get Kemba Walker back tonight from a knee injury, but this line has been adjusted too much for it.  He’ll be on a minutes restriction.  The bigger worry for the Celtics is that both Jayson Tatum and Marcus Smart are questionable due to the same illness.  The Nets are 3-2 SU & 4-1 ATS in the last 5 matchups.  The Nets are 19-6 ATS in their last 25 road games after losing 4 of their last 5 games.  Take Brooklyn. 

6* NBA Situational *SLAM DUNK* on Miami Heat +4 

The Key: The Miami Heat are 25-4 SU at home this year.  This will be one of Milwaukee’s toughest games of the season and I think the Bucks lose this game outright due to the situation.  The Bucks will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after escaping with a 93-85 win at lowly Charlotte on Sunday.  They will also be playing their 3rd game in 4 days.  They could be without All-Star Khris Middleton (21.1 PPG) for a 3rd straight game as he is questionable.  Don’t be surprised if they limit Giannis’ minutes too after he played 35 minus against the Hornets Sunday.  The Heat are 16-3 ATS in their last 29 home games after a combined score of 215 points or more in 2 straight games.  Miami is 26-12-2 ATS in its last 40 games off an ATS loss.  The Heat are 20-9-1 ATS in their last 30 home games.  The Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home matchups with Milwaukee.  Take Miami.

7* NBA Non-Conference Game of the Month on Atlanta Hawks -2 

The Key: The Atlanta Hawks are 8-3 SU & 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.  That includes upset home wins over the Clippers, 76ers, Heat and Nets and also a win over the Mavericks.  They have a great home court edge as fans are excited to turn out to see Trey Young and company in action.  The Memphis Grizzlies are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.  This bad stretch can be attributed to injuries to Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke, who combine to average 28.9 PPG & 10.5 RPG.  The Grizzlies are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last 4 road games losing by 17.8 PPG.  Take Atlanta.