15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (-115) 

The Houston Astros should have no problem winning by two runs or more tonight over the Texas Rangers.  They have a massive advantage on the mound tonight just as they do in most games, and that’s why backing them on the run line has been a great bet on the road this season. 

Justin Verlander has been unhittable since getting traded to the Astros last season.  He has gone 7-2 with a 1.24 ERA and 0.721 WHIP in 13 starts this season, including 5-1 with a 0.44 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in six road starts.  Verlander is 13-8 with a 2.93 ERA in 25 career starts against Texas, including 2-1 with a 1.38 ERA in his last four starts against them, allowing just 4 earned runs in 26 innings while striking out 34 batters. 

Doug Fister is no match for Verlander.  The right-hander is 1-6 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 1-2 with a 6.40 ERA and 1.698 WHIP in five home starts.  He has gone 2-2 with a 4.07 ERA in six career stats against Houston as well. 

Houston is 45-19 as a road favorite of -125 or higher over the last two seasons, winning by 2.5 runs per game on average.  The Astros are 17-6 in Verlander’s last 23 starts.  The Rangers are 1-5 in Fister’s last six starts.  Houston is 8-1 in its last nine meetings in Texas.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Friday. 

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-105) 

The Houston Astros should have no problem winning by two runs or more against the Texas Rangers tonight.  They have lost three of their last four coming in, so they will be highly motivated for a victory tonight. 

Gerrit Cole should lead them to victory.  He has gone 6-1 with a 2.20 ERA and 0.833 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 4-0 with a 1.76 ERA and 0.829 WHIP in six road starts.  Cole has never lost to the Rangers, going 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.667 WHIP in three career starts against them.  He has 34 K’s in 21 innings in those three starts. 

Cole Hamels has been decent this season at 3-5 with a 3.63 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 12 starts.  However, he has been at his worst at home, going 1-4 with a 4.66 ERA and 1.364 WHIP in six home starts.  And Hamels has already faced the Astros three times this season, so they have the beat on him. 

Cole is 9-0 (+9.7 units) in June road games in his career.  His teams are winning by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Cole is 14-2 (+11.1 units) as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  His teams are winning by 2.4 runs per game on average.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Thursday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+120) 

The St. Louis Cardinals (32-25) should have no problem beating the lowly Miami Marlins (20-39) by two runs or more in Game 1 of this series Tuesday.  They have a huge advantage on the mound, as well as advantages at the plate and in the bullpen. 

Jose Urena is still in search of his first win for the Marlins.  He is 0-7 with a 4.41 ERA in 12 starts this season, and the Marlins are 0-12 in those 12 starts.  Urena is also 1-1 with an 8.16 ERA and 1.814 WHIP in three career starts against St. Louis. 

Carlos Martinez is 3-2 with a 1.62 ERA and 1.080 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.055 WHIP in five home starts.  Martinez is 2-1 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts against the Marlins as well. 

Martinez is 34-11 vs. an NL team with a batting average of .250 or worse in his career.  Urena is 0-12 in all games this season and the Marlins are losing by 2.8 runs per game on average.  The Marlins are 0-8 in their last eight vs. a right-handed starter.  The Cardinals are 6-1 in Martinez’s last seven starts.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* Interleague PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+103) 

The Cleveland Indians should have no problem winning by two runs or more in Game 1 of this series with the Milwaukee Brewers.  They will be sending their ace to the mound and will be highly motivated for a victory after losing three straight to the Twins over the weekend. 

Corey Kluber is having another Cy Young-caliber season.  He is 8-2 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in 12 starts this year, including 5-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.791 WHIP in six home starts.  He is also 2-0 with a 0.93 ERA and 0.828 WHIP in his last three starts, which is impressive considering he has faced Houston twice. 

Junior Guerra isn’t as good as his 2.65 ERA and 1.123 WHIP would indicate this season.  One of his worst starts this year came against Cleveland on May 9th as he allowed 4 earned runs in 5 innings of a 2-6 loss to the Indians for a 7.20 ERA. 

Cleveland is a perfect 11-0 in home games off three or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  It is coming back to win by 4.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday. 

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+100) 

I’ve backed the Diamondbacks with success each of the last two days and I’m going to back them again here Wednesday to sweep the Cincinnati Reds.  They won 12-5 on Monday and 5-2 on Wednesday and should also win this game by two runs or more. 

The Diamondbacks have a huge advantage on the mound behind Pat Corbin, who is 5-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.894 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Corbin has been at his best at home, going 4-1 with a 2.02 ERA and 0.675 WHIP in six starts.  He is also 2-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 1.178 WHIP in seven career starts against Cincinnati. 

Sal Romano has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season.  He has gone 2-6 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in 11 starts, including 0-3 with a 12.80 ERA and 2.686 WHIP in his last three.  Romano is also 0-4 with a 7.66 ERA and 1.970 WHIP in five road starts.  He gave up 6 earned runs and 11 base runners in 4 innings of a 2-11 loss to Arizona in his only career start against them last year. 

Cincinnati is 2-15 vs. a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better this season, losing by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Reds are 2-15 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer base runners per game this season, losing by 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  The Diamondbacks are 9-3 in Corbin’s last 12 home starts.  Arizona is 5-0 in Corbin’s last five starts during Game 3 of a series.  Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+100) 

The Colorado Rockies will come into this game highly motivated for a victory after losing four of their last five overall.  They also come in with many advantages, not the least of which is rest.  The Reds played yesterday, while the Rockies had yesterday off to regroup and recover. 

No question the Rockies have the advantage on the mound tonight behind Jon Gray, who is 4-6 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 10 starts this season with 63 K’s in 55 2/3 innings.  Gray has never lost to the Reds, going 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA in two career starts against them. 

Sal Romano is 2-5 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.530 WHIP in 10 starts this season with only 34 K’s in 49 2/3 innings.  Romano has been awful on the road, going 0-3 with a 7.41 ERA and 1.882 WHIP in four starts, and it’s not going to get any easier for him at hitter-friendly Coors Field tonight.  Romano is also 0-2 with a 15.96 ERA in his last two starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 7 1/3 innings to the Cubs and Giants. 

Cincinnati is 1-11 vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base per game this season.  It is losing by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  The Rockies are 12-3 in their last 15 home games following a road trip of seven or more days.  Colorado is 7-2 in Gray’s last nine home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 16-34 in their last 50 meetings in Colorado.  Take the Rockies on the Run Line Friday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+125) 

The Washington Nationals will be highly motivated for a victory at home here against the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of this series.  They were swept by the Dodgers over the weekend.  But now they face the lowly Padres and should be able to win by two runs or more. 

The Nationals certainly have the advantage on the mound in this one behind Gio Gonzalez, who is 4-2 with a 2.22 ERA in eight starts, including 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA in four home starts.  Gonzalez is 3-2 with a 3.21 ERA in seven career starts against San Diego.  In his last two starts against the Padres, he has given up just one earned run in 12 2/3 innings. 

Robbie Erlin will be making just his second start of the season for San Diego.  The first was not good as he gave up 6 and 8 base runners in 3 innings against the Dodgers on April 16th.  Erlin has never beaten the Nationals, going 0-2 with a massive 16.40 ERA and 2.680 WHIP in two career starts against them. 

San Diego is 3-18 off three or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 3.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  Gonzalez is 14-2 when working on 7 or more days’ rest in his career.  His teams are winning by 3.9 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Nationals on the Run Line Monday. 

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (+110) 

It’s safe to say the Los Angeles Angels will be highly motivated for a victory Sunday.  They have lost five straight coming in, including each of the first three against the Rays in this series.  They will be desperate to avoid the sweep today. 

I like the Angels’ chances of winning by two runs or more today behind Shohei Ohtani.  He has gone 3-1 with a 3.58 ERA and 1.102 WHIP in six starts with 43 K’s in 32 2/3 innings.  His two best starts this season have come on Sunday afternoon home starts.  He is 1-1 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.848 WHIP in three home starts this year. 

Lifetime reliever Sergio Romo will start for the Rays for a second straight day.  He only pitched one inning yesterday, and the plan will be for one more inning today most likely.  That will force the Rays to unload their bullpen early, which is going to be a big advantage for the Angels. 

The Rays are 3-13 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Tampa Bay is 1-6 in its last seven Sunday games.  The Rays are 0-5 in their last five during Game 4 of a series.  The Angels are 5-1 in Ohtani’s last six starts.  Los Angeles is 4-0 in Ohtani’s last four Sunday starts.  Bet the Angels on the Run Line Sunday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-120) 

The Boston Red Sox will be highly motivated for a victory here Wednesday night.  They have lost the first two games of this series to Oakland and will be looking to avoid a rare sweep at home.  I think they get the job done by two runs or more with their ace on the mound. 

Chris Sale gets the ball for the Red Sox.  He is 3-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.897 WHIP in nine starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in three home starts.  Sale is also 4-3 with a 2.35 ERA and 0.862 WHIP in nine career starts against Oakland. 

Trevor Cahill has pitched well in limited action at home, but he’s 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two road starts this season.  Cahill is also 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA and 1.518 WHIP in five career starts against Boston. 

Sale is 32-7 vs. an AL team with a batting average of .255 or worse over the last three seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.3 runs per game on average in this spot.  Boston is 29-5 as a favorite of -200 or more over the last two years.  It is winning by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+110) 

The Philadelphia Phillies will be highly motivated for a victory Wednesday.  They have lost four straight coming in with their last win coming behind Aaron Nola in a 7-3 victory over Atlanta.  Well, their ace gets the ball again tonight. 

Nola has been lights out since the second half of last season.  Nola is 3-1 with a 2.58 ERA and 0.965 WHIP in six starts this season.  He gave up just one earned run in 7 innings while striking out 11 in his last start against Miami, an 8-1 Phillies’ victory. 

Jose Urena is still in search of his first win of the season for the Marlins.  He is 0-4 with a 4.91 ERA and 1.303 WHIP in six starts this season.  The Marlins have gone 0-6 in those six starts.  Urena is 1-2 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.459 WHIP in five career starts against Philadelphia. 

The Phillies are 8-1 in their last nine games when their opponent scores 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Philadelphia is 4-0 in its last four games after losing the first two games of a series.  The Marlins are 0-8 in Urena’s last eight starts.  Miami is 1-10 in Urena’s last 11 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Take the Phillies on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-110) 

The St. Louis Cardinals come into this series with the Chicago White Sox highly motivated for a victory.  They were just swept in a 3-game set in Pittsburgh over the weekend.  Now they get to host the 8-18 Chicago White Sox to get back on track. 

Michael Wacha has pitched well this season, going 4-1 with a 3.62 ERA in five starts, including 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA in three home starts.  Wacha won his only career start against the White Sox back in 2015. 

James Shields somehow manages to keep a spot in Chicago’s rotation despite being awful.  Shields is 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA and 1.605 WHIP in five starts this season.  He is also 0-1 with an 8.74 ERA and 2.383 WHIP in two career starts against St. Louis. 

The White Sox are 25-54 in their last 79 road games.  Chicago is 2-11 in its last 13 interleague road games.  The White Sox are 0-5 in Shields’ last five starts vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 6-0 in Wacha’s last six starts vs. AL Central opponents.  St. Louis is 38-14 in its last 52 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-140) 

I backed the Yankees on the Run Line yesterday in a 12-1 victory over the Miami Marlins.  I’m going to hop back on board today with the same pick.  Instead of taking the Yankees at roughly -300 on the money line, we’ll back them at -140 on the Run Line at a much more favorable price. 

The Marlins are the worst team in baseball in my opinion.  They are just 4-12 this season with 11 of those 12 losses coming by 2 runs or more.  Their lineup is atrocious, and their rotation is awful as well.  Jarlin Garcia stands little chance of being successful against this potent Yankees’ lineup tonight. 

Masahiro Tanaka should be able to shut down the Marlins.  This is by far his easiest start of the year after facing the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox in his first three starts.  He has posted a 1.039 WHIP with 18 K’s in 17 1/3 innings thus far.  Tanaka gave up just 2 earned runs in 7 innings in his lone career start against Miami for a 2.57 ERA. 

The Marlins are 18-40 in their last 58 vs. AL East opponents.  Miami is 8-25 in its last 33 interleague road games.  The Yankees are 7-0 in their last seven interleague games.  New York is 8-1 in its last nine home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Yankees are 40-17 in Tanaka’s last 57 home starts.  New York is 5-1 in its last six home meetings with Miami.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-125) 

Instead of laying -300 or more to back the Yankees on the Money Line tonight, we’ll gladly lay just -125 with them on the Run Line in hopes that they win this game by two runs or more.  I think that shouldn’t be a problem against what I believe is the worst team in baseball in the Miami Marlins. 

The Marlins are just 4-11 this season with 10 of those 11 losses coming by two runs or more.  The Yankees are rested and ready to go after having the last two days off due to weather.  Giancarlo Stanton will be excited to face his former team for the first time as well. 

Luis Severino is one of the better starters in baseball.  He went 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 31 starts last season.  He struck out 230 batters in 193 1/3 innings.  He is 2-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP through three starts this season as well. 

Caleb Smith has not fared well in limited action in the big leagues in his brief two-year career to this point. He is 0-2 with a 6.47 ERA and 1.625 WHIP while allowing 23 earned runs and 6 homers in 32 innings.  He is in line to get rocked against this potent Yankees’ lineup tonight. 

The Marlins are 18-39 in their last 57 vs. AL East opponents.  Miami is 8-24 in its last 32 interleague road games.  The Yankees are 6-0 in their last six interleague games.  New York is 7-1 in its last eight home games vs. a left-handed starter.  The Yankees are 7-0 in Severino’s last seven starts vs. a team with a losing record.  New York is 13-3 in Severino’s last 16 home starts.  Roll with the Yankees on the Run Line Monday. 

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-119) 

The Houston Astros will be highly motivated for a victory at home tonight following back-to-back losses at Minnesota.  They are still 9-4 on the season with seven of those wins coming by two runs or more.  So instead of laying -240 on the money line, we’ll back them on the run line at a much more favorable -119 price. 

Gerrit Cole has delivered in a big way for the Astros in the early going.  He is 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two starts with 22 strikeouts in 14 innings.  One of those starts came against Texas on April 1st as he allowed just one earned run in 7 innings while striking out 11.  Cole is now 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.714 WHIP in two career starts against Texas. 

Cole Hamels has taken a big step back since joining the Rangers.  He hasn’t fared well thus far in 2018, going 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA and 1.625 WHIP in three starts.  Hamels is 0-2 with a 9.34 ERA in his last two starts against Houston, giving up 9 earned runs and 19 base runners in 8 2/3 innings. 

Texas is 1-11 off two straight losses by 4 runs or more over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to lose by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Rangers are 0-9 in their last nine vs. starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.  Houston is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Friday. 

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-123) 

Instead of laying roughly -265 to back the Indians on the money line, we are going to take the hugely discounted price of -123 on the run line tonight.  I am sure they will get the win against one of the worst teams in baseball in the Tigers, and it’s likely to come by two runs or more due to their massive advantage on the mound. 

Carlos Carrasco is one of the better starters in baseball.  He is off to a 2-0 start with a 5.40 ERA and 1.114 WHIP in his two starts this season.  Carrasco has dominated the Tigers recently, going 7-1 with a 1.52 ERA in his last 11 starts against them, giving up just 11 earned runs in 65 1/3 innings. 

Jordan Zimmerman has been a massive bust in Detroit.  He is 0-0 with an 8.71 ERA and 1.646 WHIP in his two starts this season against Chicago and Pittsburgh, giving up 10 earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.  Zimmerman has never beaten the Indians, going 0-4 with a whopping 10.88 ERA and 2.014 WHIP in five career starts against them. 

The Tigers are 1-8 in Zimmerman’s last nine starts when working on five days’ rest.  Detroit is 17-47 in its last 64 games overall.  The Indians are 21-5 in Carrasco’s last 26 starts vs. AL Central opponents.  Cleveland is 8-0 in Carrasco’s last eight home starts vs. a team with a losing record.  Cleveland is 7-0 in Carrasco’s last seven starts when working on four days’ rest.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Wednesday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+130) 

Instead of laying -175 or so to back the Cardinals on the money line, I’m going to take the value and bet the Cardinals on the -1.5 run line at a +130 price.  I have no doubt the Cardinals win this game, and it’s likely they do so by 2 runs or more given their advantage on the mound. 

Carlos Martinez pitched 8 1/3 shutout innings while striking out 10 in a 6-0 win at Milwaukee in his last start.  He is now 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in 13 career starts against the Brewers.  He’ll be motivated to help the Cardinals bounce back from two consecutive losses coming in, including one in extra innings last night to the Brewers. 

Brent Suter has been rocked in the early going.  He is 1-1 with a 6.30 ERA and 1.700 WHIP while allowing 7 earned runs and 17 base runners in 10 innings pitched across two starts this season.  Suter has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-2 with a 7.20 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in two career starts against them. 

The Cardinals are 4-1 in Martinez’s last five home starts.  The Brewers are 1-4 in their last five vs. a team with a losing record.  St. Louis is 8-2 in Martinez’s last 10 Tuesday starts.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* AL PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-123) 

The Cleveland Indians have a massive edge on the mound and at the plate tonight over the Detroit Tigers. Look for them to win this game by multiple runs.  So instead of laying -270 on the run line, we’ll take the much more generous price of -123 on the run line tonight. 

Corey Kluber is one of the Top 5 starters in baseball.  He has gone 0-1 with a 2.40 ERA and 0.800 WHIP in two starts this season, and will be motivated to pick up his first victory tonight.  Kluber owned the Tiger in his final three starts against them last year, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA while allowing just 2 earned runs in 22 innings. 

Francisco Liriano is well past his prime and fortunate to still have a spot in a rotation somewhere.  Liriano gave up 7 earned runs in 2 innings in his lone start against Cleveland last year.  Look for the Indians to finally get their bats going tonight against Liriano. 

The Tigers are 2-12 in their last 14 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  The Indians are 23-5 in their last 28 during Game 1 of a series.  Cleveland is 36-15 in Kluber’s last 51 starts, and 24-9 in his last 33 home starts.  Take the Indians on the Run Line Monday. 

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-110) 

I fully expect the Cleveland Indians to bounce back from a 1-0 loss to the Royals yesterday with a win by two runs or more today.  So instead of laying the -200 price on the money line, I’ll take the -1.5 run line. 

Mike Clevinger is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in his lone start this season.  He is one of the most underrated starters in the big leagues.  Clevinger is 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in four career starts against Kansas City. 

Jason Hammel is 3-5 with a 5.37 ERA in 10 career starts against Cleveland. He gave up 5 earned runs in 5 innings and 10 base runners in a 1-6 loss at Detroit in his first start this season for a 9.00 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. 

Hammel is 1-17 in his last 18 games as an underdog of +175 to +250.  His teams are losing by 3.5 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line. 

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-130) 

The Houston Astros are actually better on paper this season than the team that won the World Series last year.  A big reason for that was the signing of Gerrit Cole, adding another No. 1 starter to an already loaded rotation. 

Cole was sharp in his first start for the Astros.  He allowed just one run and five base runners in 7 innings while striking out 11 in an 8-2 victory at Texas.  The Astros are off to a hot start this year, going 6-2 with five of those wins coming by 3 runs or more. 

The Padres are just 2-6 on the season, picking up a rare win in Game 1 yesterday that will have the Astros motivated to bounce back with a win today.  And Bryan Mitchell, who gave up 5 earned runs and 11 base runners in 5 innings of a 4-7 loss to Colorado in his first start this season, is in line to get rocked by this potent Houston lineup. 

Houston is 22-7 after a game where it had 4 or fewer hits over the last three seasons.  The Padres are 3-12 in their last 15 games overall.  San Diego is 0-5 in its last five games following a win.  Houston is 22-4 in its last 26 home games.  The Astros are 30-12 in their last 42 vs. NL West opponents.  Take the Astros on the Run Line Saturday. 

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-125) 

I’ll continue fading the Miami Marlins on the Run Line.  They are the worst team in baseball and it will be a profitable move to fade them on the Run Line all season.  The Red Sox are one of the best teams in baseball and are off to a 4-1 start this season. 

Miami will be up against one of the Top 5 best starters in the game in Chris Sale.  Sale dominated in his first start, pitching six shutout innings while striking out nine batters against Tampa Bay.  He will shut down this weak Miami lineup. 

Jose Urena was roughed up in his first start for the Marlins, giving up 5 earned runs, 2 homers and 10 base runners in 4 innings in a 4-8 loss to the Cubs.  He hasn’t fared well in his big league career, and he’s up against it here against this potent Red Sox lineup. 

Boston is 17-4 in interleague games over the last two seasons, winning by 1.5 runs per game.  The Red Sox are 20-3 in Tuesday games over the last two years, winning by 3.1 runs per game.  Boston is 6-0 in Sale’s last six road starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Marlins are 2-8 in their last 10 games vs. a left-handed starter.  Miami is 1-5 in Urena’s last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Tuesday. 

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-120) 

I’ve stated before already this season that I believe you can fade the Marlins on the Run Line every game and make money.  They are far and away the worst team in baseball, and that will show over the course of a 162-game season. 

After getting a taste of the playoffs last year with Chicago, Jose Quintana wants more.  He went 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA in 14 starts with the Cubs.  He struck out 10.5 batters per 9 innings with the Cubs as well. 

Dillon Peters was in the minors last year when he got hurt fielding a ground ball.  He had to rehab his fractured thumb for three months.  And he wasn’t very effective when healthy, going 1-2 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.627 WHIP in six starts for the Marlins last year. 

The Cubs are 7-2 in Quintana’s last nine starts, including 4-0 in his last four starts vs. a team with a losing record.  The Marlins are 1-7 in their last eight games vs. a left-handed starter.  Miami is 1-7 in its last eight during Game 4 of a series.  The Marlins are 0-5 in their last five Sunday games.  Roll with the Cubs on the Run Line Sunday. 

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-125) 

I’m of the belief that if you fade the fade the Marlins on the run line all season you will win money.  That’s especially the case when they are at home and you’re getting cheaper run line prices on the road teams. 

The Marlins have the worst roster in baseball, and it’s not even close.  Derek Jeter and company gutted the roster and basically got rid of all their best players.  It’s going to be a long season in Miami. 

Yu Darvish will be highly motivated to prove that the Cubs made the right move getting him this offseason.  He also wants to erase the sour taste out of his mouth from the World Series with the Dodgers.  Darvish 8-5 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.082 WHIP in road games last year. 

Chicago is 16-2 when revenging a one run loss over the last two seasons.  It is coming back to win by 2.8 runs per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday. 

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-120) 

The Miami Marlins are the worst team in baseball, period.  It will be a profitable move to fade them on the run line all season.  They have the worst lineup in baseball, and their starting rotation leaves a lot to be desired as well. 

The Cubs have a big edge on the mount with Kyle Hendricks, who has posted a 2.94 ERA over four major league seasons, going 16-8 with a 2.13 ERA in 2016.  In his final 16 starts last year, he allowed on or fewer runs in eight of them. 

Rookie left-hander Caleb Smith will make his Marlins debut after being acquired from the Yankees on Nov. 20.  Smith is a 16th-round pick out of Sam Houston State.  He only has nine games of big league experience.  That includes two starts and a 7.71 ERA last year. 

Joe Maddon is 96-47 as a road favorite of -125 or more as the coach of the Cubs.  They are winning by 2.0 runs per game on average in this spot.  Chicago is 13-6 in Hendricks’ last 19 road starts.  Miami is 1-10 in its last 11 vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  Roll with the Cubs on the Run Line Friday. 

15* Twins/Yankees AL Wild Card No-Brainer on New York -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees should have no problem beating the Minnesota Twins by two runs or more here.  The Yankees have the better starter, better bullpen and better lineup in this winner-take-all Wild Card game.

Luis Severino is 14-6 with a 2.98 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 31 starts this season.  Hhe has 230 K's in 193 1/3 innings.  He's backed by a bullpen with a 3.36 ERA in all games and a 3.22 ERA in home games.  He's also backed by a lineup that averages 5.6 runs per game at home.

Ervin Santana has been one of the more lucky starters in the big leagues at 16-8 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.126 WHIP in 33 starts.  He has only 167 K's in 211 1/3 innings.  The Twins have a 4.35 bullpen ERA overall and a 4.40 ERA on the road.  Their lineup his scoring 4.9 runs per game on the road.

Santana is 6-10 with a 5.66 ERA and 1.517 WHIP in 20 career starts against New York.  The Yankees are 8-1 against Minnesota in their last nine home meetings, winning by 2 runs per game on average.  The Twins are 5-21 in their last 26 playoff games, including 0-5 n their last five playoff road games.   The Yankees are 13-3 in Severino's last 16 starts, and 13-3 in their last 16 home games.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Houston Astros -1.5 (-130)

The Houston Astros have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall to pull within one game of the Cleveland Indians for home-field advantage in the American League.  The Texas Rangers have lost five straight and are just looking forward to going on vacation.  They've been outscored 25-5 by the Astros in the first two games of this series.

Now one of the hottest starters in baseball gets the ball for the Astros.  Justin Verlander is 4-0 with a 0.64 ERA in 28 innings since being traded from the Detroit Tigers.  He is 10-6 with a 3.02 ERA in 19 career starts against Texas as well.

Nick Martinez is having a rough season for the Rangers, going 3-7 with a 5.42 ERA in 17 starts this year.  Martinez is 0-2 with a 5.51 ERA in three starts against the Astros in 2017, giving up 10 earned runs and a whopping 6 homers in 16 1/3 innings.

Texas is 1-12 in its last 13 home games off three consecutive losses by five runs or more to division opponents.  The Rangers are losing by 3.8 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Astros on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-105)

The Boston Red Sox have now won six straight and are now 14-3 in their last 17 games overall.  They are the hottest team in baseball outside the Cleveland Indians.  And their magic number is three for clinching the AL East now, meaning that any combination of three Boston wins or New York losses would get them the division.  They are so close they can taste it.

Drew Pomeranz is far and away the superior starter here.  He is 16-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 30 starts this season, 9-2 with a 3.11 ERA in 15 home starts, and 2-0 with a 1.47 ERA in his last three starts.  Pomeranz is also 3-1 with a 2.96 ERA in five career starts against Toronto.

Brett Anderson is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 3-4 with a 7.15 ERA and 1.809 WHIP in 11 starts this season. He was just rocked for 8 earned runs in 1 1/3 innings in his last start on September 30th in a 5-15 loss to the Royals.  Anderson gave up 6 earned runs in 4 innings in his last start at Boston as well.

The Red Sox are 17-4 in Pomeranz's 21 night starts this season.  They are winning by 2.1 runs per game on average.  Boston is 9-1 in Pomerenz's 10 starts in the second half of the season vs. teams who average 1.25 or more HR's/game, winning by 2.6 runs per game.  Boston is 13-3 in Pomeranz's last 16 home starts.  Take the Red Sox on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+100)

The St. Louis Cardinals won yesterday and gained a game on both the Rockies and Brewers in the wild card, the two teams they are chasing.  This team is feeling good about themselves right now at just 2.5 games back with 11 games to go.  They are in must-win mode the rest of the way.

The Cardinals have scored 17 runs in the first two games of this series against the Reds.  They should stay red hot at the plate against Cincinnati's Homer Bailey, who is 5-8 with a 6.86 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in 16 starts this season, including 1-5 with a 7.78 ERA and 1.676 WHIP in eight home starts.  Bailey is 6-12 with a 5.75 ERA and 1.619 WHIP in 22 career starts against St. Louis.  He gave up 10 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings of a 4-13 loss to the Cardinals in his last start against them on August 6th.

Carlos Martinez has been as consistent as they come this season.  He is 11-11 with a 3.57 ERA and 1.194 WHIP in 30 starts this year.  Martinez is also 3-2 with a 3.92 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in seven career starts against the Reds.

St. Louis is 14-2 vs. an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.650 or worse over the last two seasons.  It is winning by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Cardinals are 13-3 in their last 16 vs. a team with a losing record.  The Reds are 2-7 in Bailey's last nine home starts.  The Reds are 13-40 in their last 53 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.  Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Thursday.

15* MLB Sunday PLAY OF THE DAY on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (-105)

The Colorado Rockies are inching closer to clinching their playoff spot.  They have gone 10-3 in their last 13 games overall, including blowout victories over the Padres in each of the first two games in this series, outscoring them 22-1 in the process.

I think the blowouts continue behind talented starter Jon Gray, who is 4-1 with a 3.34 ERA in six home starts this year, and 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in his last three starts.  Gray is 3-2 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.959 WHIP in eight career starts against San Diego as well.

Jhoulys Chacin has some of the most drastic home/road splits in the majors this year.  He has been awful on the road, going 4-7 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.680 WHIP in 14 road starts this year.  It isn't going to get any easier for him here against a hot-hitting Rockies lineup inside a hitter's ballpark at Coors Field.

Colorado is 15-3 in home games vs. NL teams scoring 4 or less runs/game on the season this season.  It is winning by 3.1 runs per game in this spot.  San Diego is 6-24 in road games after scoring 2 runs or less 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.  It is losing by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Rockies on the Run Line Sunday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-110)

The Boston Red Sox have won five of their last seven, while the Tampa Bay Rays have lost five of their last seven.  The Red Sox are only 3 games up on the Yankees in the AL East and need wins, while the Rays are 5.5 games back in the wild card and basically done for now.  Boston should have no problem winning this game by two runs or more based on motivation and their massive edge on the mound.

Chris Sale is well on his way to winning the AL Cy Young award.  He has gone 16-7 with a 2.76 ERA and 0.946 WHIP in 29 starts this season, striking out 278 batters in 195 2/3 innings.  He has pitched well of late with a 1.56 ERA in his last three starts.  Sale is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in his last two starts against Tampa Bay, pitching 14 shutout innings while striking out 21 batters.

Matt Andriese is 5-3 with a 4.65 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 14.08 ERA and 2.477 WHIP in his last three starts.  Andriese does not enjoy facing the Red Sox, going 2-2 with a 6.28 ERA and 1.465 WHIP in six career starts against them.  He gave up 8 runs, 6 earned, in 1 2/3 innings in a 9-0 loss at Boston in his last start on September 9th.

Sale is 16-2 (+13.1 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse this season.  The Red Sox are winning by 4.1 runs per game in this spot.  The Rays are 0-4 in Andriese's last four starts.  Tampa Bay is 0-5 in its last five vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line.

15* MLB Thursday Early Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (-115)

The St. Louis Cardinals needs wins and fast.  They are three games behind the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central with just 17 games remaining.  After losing to the Reds yesterday, I expect them to bounce back today and win by two runs or more to cover this run line.

Luke Weaver has done a remarkable job since joining the rotation over the past month.  He is 5-1 with a 2.45 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in six starts, 2-1 with a 2.04 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in his three home starts, and 3-0 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.200 WHIP in his last three starts overall.  He has struck out 49 batters in 36 2/3 innings this year.

Amir Garrett just hasn't been able to keep his spot in the rotation for the Reds this year due to poor performance.  He is 3-7 with a 7.39 ERA and 1.547 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  They are giving him one last chance here down the stretch, and I don't expect it to go much better for him.

The Reds are 0-7 in Garrett's last seven starts.  Cincinnati is 0-6 in Garrett's last six road starts.  The Reds are 20-42 in their last 62 road games.  The Cardinals are 5-0 in their last five games following a loss.  St. Louis is 8-2 in its last 10 games overall.  Roll with the Cardinals on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+100)

The Boston Red Sox are getting closer to clinching the AL East at 4 games up on the New York Yankees for first place.  They aren't going to be letting up with 18 games to go until that task is done.  After rolling the A's 11-1 yesterday, look for a similar performance tonight.

Doug Fister has been a revelation.  He is probably the sole reason they are in first place right now.  Fister has gone 5-2 with a 2.79 ERA in seven starts in place of David Price.  He has gone 2-1 with a 1.71 ERA in his last three starts, shutting down Toronto, New York and Baltimore.

Fister also owns the A's, going 8-7 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.241 WHIP in 19 career starts against them.  He is 3-1 with a 0.98 ERA in his last four starts against Oakland, giving up just 3 earned runs in 27 2/3 innings.

The A's have been a terrible road team at 21-48 (-20.9 units) on the season.  Jharel Cotton won't save them today.  He is 7-10 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He has given up 11 earned runs and 6 homers over 9 innings in his last two starts coming in.

Oakland is 2-12 after having won four of its last five games this season.  The A's are losing by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  The Red Sox are 26-10 in their last 36 home games vs. a right-handed starter.  Boston is 7-0 in its last seven Wednesday games.  The A's are 16-43 in the last 59 meetings, including 4-11 in the last 15 meetings in Boston.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+135)

The St. Louis Cardinals have battled their way to within 2 games of the Chicago Cubs for first place in the NL Central.  They need every win they can get, and will certainly be motivated for one in Game 1 of this series with the Cincinnati Reds tonight.

Lance Lynn has been the ace in St. Louis this season.  He has gone 10-7 with a 2.94 ERA in 29 starts, 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA in 13 home starts. and 0-1 with a 1.29 ERA in his last three starts.  Lynn simply owns the Reds, going 10-4 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.127 WHIP in 17 career starts against them.  He is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his last four starts against Cincinnati, giving up only 3 earned runs in 23 innings.

Robert Stephenson is 4-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.553 WHIP in seven starts this year.  He has already walked 26 batters in 38 innings, and that lack of control is going to catch up with him in the majors.  Stephenson faced the Cardinals once before, giving up 5 earned runs in 4 innings of a 5-12 loss for an 11.25 ERA.

The Cardinals are 7-1 in their last eight games overall.  St. Louis is 5-0 in its last five games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Reds are 19-41 in their last 60 road games.  The Cardinals are 7-1 in Lynn's last eight home starts vs. Cincinnati.  The Reds are 28-60 in their last 88 meetings in St. Louis.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+125)

The Milwaukee Brewers just came up with their biggest series sweep of the season.  They took all three games from the Cubs in Chicago over the weekend.  They are now just two games back of the Cubs in the NL Central race, so they aren't about to let up today.

Now they take on a Pittsburgh Pirates team that is clearly tanking, going 0-5 in their last five games overall while scoring a combined 5 runs in the five losses.  Steven Brault, who is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his lone start this season, won't be able to stop the bleeding for them.

I've been very impressed with Brandon Woodruff, who is 1-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 1.098 WHIP in four starts this season.  He should be able to shut down this weak Pittsburgh lineup.  Brault has never beaten the Brewers, going 0-2 with a 4.20 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in three career starts against them.

The Pirates are 1-10 in their last 11 games after scoring two runs or less in their previous game.  Pittsburgh is 8-26 in its last 34 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Milwaukee is 8-2 in its last 10 home games.  The Pirates are 24-67 in the last 91 meetings in Milwaukee.  Take the Brewers on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE NIGHT on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-115)

The Chicago Cubs blew a late lead yesterday to the Cincinnati Reds.  They'll come back highly motivated for a victory here Friday against the lowly Philadelphia Phillies, who own the worst record in baseball.  Chicago is 21-6 in its last 27 games following a loss.

Jose Quintana has been very effective in a Cubs' uniform.  He is 4-2 with a 3.73 ERA in his first seven starts with the club.  He has allowed six or fewer hits in each of his past 14 starts, the longest active streak in the major leagues.

Jerad Eickhoff is 3-7 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.479 WHIP in 22 starts this season.  He faced the Cubs on May 3rd in his only start against them this season.  He gave up 4 earned runs in 5 2/3 innings, which was the second time in his last three starts against them that he has allowed at least 4 runs.

Quintana is 11-1 (+10.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  His teams are winning by 3.7 runs per game on average in these spots.  The Cubs are 14-3 in their last 17 road games vs. a right-handed starter.  The Phillies are 36-79 in their last 115 vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-105)

The Arizona Diamondbacks ended a 3-9 run with a big victory in extra innings over the New York Mets yesterday to move 3.5 games up on the Brewers in the wild card.  This is a Mets team that appears to have quit, going 1-7 in their last eight games overall.

The Diamondbacks have a big edge on the mound tonight behind Pate Corbin.  He is coming off two of his best starts of the season.  He has pitched 15 1/3 scoreless innings while allowing only 11 base runners and striking out 15 in back-to-back wins over the Cubs and Astros, two of the best teams in baseball.

Tom Milone gets the nod for the Mets.  He is 1-2 with a 7.62 ERA and 1.731 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with an 11.33 ERA and 2.614 WHIP in three home starts.  Milone is 0-1 with a 7.59 ERA and 1.874 WHIP in two career starts against Arizona as well.

The Mets are 0-10 vs. teams outscoring opppnents by 0.5 or more runs/game in the second half of the season this season.  They are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  New York is 1-11 as a home underdog of +100 or higher this season.  It is losing by 3.6 runs per game in this situation.  Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-105)

The Texas Rangers have gone 8-2 in their last 10 games overall to pull within 1.5 games of the last wild card spot in the American League.  Their offense just put up 17 runs on the White Sox yesterday, making it four times in the last five games that they have scored at least 9 runs.  We'll ride the hot hand today once again.

Speaking of hot hands, A.J. Griffin has pitched his best baseball of the season of late.  He is 6-3 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.218 WHIP in 11 starts this season, but 2-1 with a 3.37 ERA and 1.062 WHIP in his last three.  He is clearly the better starter in this matchup.

The White Sox are just 1-6 in their last seven games overall to fall to 46-73 on the season.  Miguel Gonzalez has been awful on the road this year, going 2-7 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.661 WHIP in 11 starts away from home.  Gonzalez is 2-3 with a 4.54 ERA and 1.515 WHIP in six career starts against Texas as well.

Griffin is 9-1 (+10.4 Units) against the money line after giving up 1 or less earned runs last outing over the last two seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.9 runs per game in this spot.  The Rangers are 11-2 in Griffin's last 13 home starts.  They are winning by 2.4 runs per game as well.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Sunday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Texas Rangers -1.5 (-120)

The Texas Rangers on a nice run to pull within 1.5 games of the final wild card spot in the American League.  They have gone 7-1 in their last eight games overall.  Their offense has been the catalyst in scoring 5 or more runs in all seven wins during this stretch.

The Chicago White Sox have gone in the other direction.  They have lost five straight while allowing at least 5 runs in all five losses.  Now they are starting their worst pitcher in James Shields, who is 2-4 with a 5.90 ERA and 1.573 WHIP in 13 starts this season.  Shields had allowed 18 homers in just 68 2/3 innings pitched.

Andrew Cashner has been the best starter for the Rangers.  He is 7-9 with a 3.32 ERA in 19 starts, 4-3 with a 2.25 ERA in nine home starts, and 2-1 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three starts.  This guy has consistently been underrated all season.

Shields is 13-33 (-17.6 Units) against the money line in all games over the last two seasons.  His teams are losing by 2.0 runs per game on average.  Texas is 13-2 after scoring and allowing 8 runs or more last game over the last three seasons, winning by 3.1 runs per game on average.  The White Sox are 2-12 in Shields' last 14 road starts.  Texas is 7-0 in its last seven vs. a right-handed starter.  Bet the Rangers on the Run Line Friday.

25* AL Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+100, Game 1)

One of the weirdest stats you will see this season is the head-to-head history between the Twins and Indians.  The road team is actually 13-1 in their 14 meetings this year.  We'll continue riding this trend Thursday and back the Indians in Game 1 of this double-header on the Run Line.

The Indians have a massive edge on the mound tonight to boot.  Carlos Carrasco is 11-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 23 starts this season.  He has been at his best on the road, going 8-2 with a 3.09 ERA on the highway.  He pitched 6 1/3 innings of one-run ball in an 8-1 win at Minnesota on June 16th in his only start against them this season.

Kyle Gibson is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He is 6-9 with a 6.02 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 20 starts this year.  That includes a 3-6 record and a 6.89 ERA and 1.84 WHIP at home this season.  Gibson has allowed at least 3 earned runs in 5 consecutive starts against the Indians, posting a 6.59 ERA in those five outings.

The Indians are 14-3 in their last 17 games vs. a right-handed starter.  Cleveland is 5-0 in its last five road games.  The Indians are 6-0 in Carrasco's last six starts after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  The Twins are 16-35 in Gibson's last 51 starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 27-56 in its last 83 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Twins are 0-6 in Gibson's last six home starts vs. Cleveland.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105)

The Chicago Cubs should have no problem winning by two runs or more tonight against the lowly Cincinnati Reds.  This is a Cubs team that will be taking the Reds seriously considering they are only one game ahead of the Cardinals and two ahead of the Brewers in the NL Central race.

Jose Quintana is clearly the better starter in this game.  He has gone 6-10 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.258 WHIP in 23 starts this season with 143 K's in 134 1/3 innings.  The Reds are awful against left-handed starters, going 7-22 against them this season while hitting .243 and scoring 3.9 runs per game.

Asher Wojciechowski is one of the many sub-par starters in the Reds' rotation.  He has gone 2-1 with a 6.11 ERA in six starts this season, including 0-0 with an 8.00 ERA in two road starts.

Quintana is 9-1 (+8.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a losing record this season.  His teams are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 (+115)

The Milwaukee Brewers have now lost five straight games after getting swept by the Minnesota Twins last series.  But they are still just two games back of the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central.  They'll be highly motivated for a victory in Game 1 of this series at home against the Cincinnati Reds Friday.

The Brewers should have no problem winning by two runs or more thanks to their edge on the mound.  Jimmy Nelson has been their ace all season, going 9-5 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 23 starts.  Nelson is 1-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in his last three starts, so he has shown no signs of slowing down.  He's 5-3 with a 2.43 ERA at home this season, and 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA in his last five starts against Cincinnati, giving up just 8 earned runs in 33 1/3 innings.

Homer Bailey has been a mess since returning from injury.  He is now 3-6 with an 8.86 ERA and a 2.04 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Bailey gave up 10 earned runs in 3 1/3 innings in his last start against the Cardinals.  He faced the Brewers back on June 29th, and he was blasted for 6 earned runs in 3 innings of a 3-11 loss.

The Reds are 16-35 in their last 51 road games.  Cincinnati is 2-10 in Bailey's last 12 starts vs. NL Central opponents.  The Brewers are 5-0 in Nelson's last five home starts.  Milwaukee is 11-4 in its last 15 home games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Brewers are 5-1 in Nelson's last six starts vs. Cincinnati.  The Reds are 1-4 in Bailey's last five starts vs. Milwaukee.  Bet the Brewers on the Run Line Friday.

20* Cubs/Giants ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Chicago -1.5 (+100)

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a win in this series opener against the San Francisco Giants after losing four of their last five games overall.  Look for them to win by multiple runs tonight in Game 1 of this series Monday.

Jake Arrieta has gone 2-1 with a 2.05 ERA and a .154 opponents' batting average against in four starts since the All-Star Break.  Arrieta is 4-2 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.942 WHIP in seven career starts against the Giants.

The Cubs feast on lefties with a 0.822 OPS against them this season, which is the 3rd-best mark in the big leagues.  Matt Moore has been awful all season, going 3-11 with a 5.80 ERA and 1.598 WHIP in 22 starts.  Moore has allowed at least 4 runs in five straight starts coming in.

The Cubs are 18-7 against left-handed starters this season, hitting .282 and scoring 6.4 runs per game.  The Cubs are 23-4 in Arrieta's last 27 road starts vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 or fewer walks per game.  They are winning by an average of 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Chicago is 11-1 in its last 12 road games.  San Francisco is 0-6 in Moore's last six starts vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-140)

The Boston Red Sox should have no problem beating the White Sox by multiple runs Saturday night at Fenway.  They have a massive edge on the mound and this one should be in the bag after five innings.  The Red Sox are 4-0 in their last four games overall while scoring a combined 30 runs in the process.

Drew Pomeranz is 10-4 with a 3.46 ERA in 21 starts this season, including 6-2 with a 3.64 ERA in 11 road starts.  Pomeranz has been great of late at 1-0 with a 1.96 ERA in his last three starts.  The left-hander owns the White Sox, going 2-0 with a 0.75 ERA in two career starts against them.

James Shields is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has gone 2-3 with a 6.19 ERA and 1.659 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.42 ERA and 2.163 WHIP in his last three starts.  Shields is 9-15 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.328 WHIP in 29 career starts against Boston.

The White Sox are 17-35 in their last 52 road games.  Chicago is 1-10 in its last 11 games vs. a left-handed starter.  The White Sox are 1-7 in Shields' last eight road starts.  The Red Sox are 57-28 in their last 85 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.  Boston is 9-3 in Pomeranz's last 12 home starts.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-120)

The Toronto Blue Jays are hitting the cover off the baseball of late.  They have scored a combined 25 runs over their past three games.  They should feast on Derek Holland and easily win by two runs or more to get us a win today.

J.A. Happ is a solid lefty who has posted a 4.15 ERA in 14 starts this season and a 4.07 ERA in seven road starts.  Happ has gone 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA in four career starts against the White Sox.  He has won his last two starts against them while giving up just 3 earned runs in 14 1/3 innings and striking out 17.

Derek Holland is 5-10 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.599 WHIP in 20 starts this season, including 0-1 with an 8.59 ERA and 1.977 WHIP in his last three starts.  Holland is 3-4 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in nine career starts against Toronto.  He gave up 11 earned runs in 2 2/3 innings in his last start against the Blue Jays.

The White Sox are 1-10 in Holland's last 11 starts.  Chicago is 2-10 in its last 12 home games.  Bet the Blue Jays on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-125)

The Cleveland Indians have started to play up to their potential since the All-Star Break to try and take control of the AL Central.  They have now won seven straight games while scoring 6 or more runs in five of their last seven.  Look for them to win by multiple runs tonight against the Chicago White Sox, who have gone 1-12 in their last 13 games overall.  The White Sox are coming off their huge crosstown rivalry with the Cubs and won't be very interested tonight.

Danny Salazar had a tremendous return from the disabled list on July 22nd.  He pitched 7 shutout innings while allowing just one base runners and striking out 8 in a 2-1 win over the Toronto Blue Jays.  Salazar is 5-4 with a 3.97 ERA in 11 career starts against the White Sox.

Derek Holland has gone 5-9 with a 5.56 ERA and 1.529 WHIP in 19 starts this season, including 0-1 with a 9.41 ERA and 1.743 WHIP in his last three starts.  The White Sox traded away all their top bullpen arms, and it has shown lately as their bullpen has been rocked since the break.

The Indians are 13-2 in Salazar's last 15 Friday starts.  The Indians are 7-0 in their last seven games overall.  The White Sox are 0-7 in their last seven home games.  Chicago is 0-6 in Holland's last six starts.  The White Sox are 0-9 in Holland's last nine starts following a loss in their previous game.  These last four trends combine for a perfect 29-0 system backing Cleveland.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-115)

The Boston Red Sox have now lost four straight and will be highly motivated for a victory as a result.  The good news is that they have arguably the best starter in baseball going today to get them back on track.

Chris Sale has gone 12-4 with a 2.48 ERA and 0.892 WHIP in 20 starts this season while striking out a ridiculous 200 batters in 141 1/3 innings already.  He has thrown 13 2/3 shutout innings in his last two starts since the All-Star Break while striking out 22.  Sale is 4-1 with a 2.44 ERA and 0.795 WHIP in seven career starts against Seattle as well.

Andrew Moore is 1-2 with a 5.70 ERA in five starts this season for the Mariners while striking out only 13 batters in 30 innings.  Moore has really struggled of late, going 0-1 with a 7.80 ERA and 1.600 WHIP while yielding 6 homers in 15 innings of work.

The Red Sox are 11-4 in Sale's last 15 starts.  Boston is 8-2 in Sale's last 10 starts when working on 4 days' rest.  The Mariners are 5-12 in their last 17 home games.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* AL Central GAME OF THE MONTH on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-120)

The Cleveland Indians broke out of their funk with an 11-run outburst yesterday against the San Diego Padres.  It was the second time in four games in which they have put up 11 runs.  I look for their bats to stay hot today and for them to win this game over the Tigers by multiple runs.

Carlos Carrasco has gone 9-3 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.055 WHIP in 16 starts this season for the Indians.  He has owned the Tigers of late, going 5-1 with a 1.59 ERA in his last seven starts against them, giving up only 8 earned runs in 45 1/3 innings.

Jordan Zimmerman is 5-6 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.478 WHIP in 16 starts this season.  He is still looking for his first road win, going 0-3 with a 6.45 ERA and 1.634 WHIP In eight starts away from home.  And Zimmerman has never beaten the Indians, going 0-2 with a whopping 10.67 ERA and 1.674 WHIP in three career starts against them.

Plays on all favorites with a money line of -175 to -250 (CLEVELAND) - average offensive team (4.4 to 4.9 runs/game) against an average starter (ERA 4.70 to 5.70)-AL, after a win by 4 runs or more are 35-3 (92.1%) since 1997.  These teams are winning by 3.6 runs per game on average.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Dodgers have actually lost two out of three against the crosstown rival Los Angeles Dodgers in this series. They want to square the series here in Game 4 with a win, and they'll have a great chance to do that due to their huge edge on the mound.

Ace Clayton Kershaw gets the ball looking to improve upon his 11-2 record with a 2.47 ERA and 0.924 WHIP in 16 starts.  He has been at his best on the road, going 5-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.952 WHIP in seven road starts.  Kershaw is 5-2 with a 2.69 ERA and 0.989 WHIP in nine career starts against the Angels.

JC Ramirez is 5-5 with a 4.32 ERA in 14 starts for the Angels this season.  He has gone 0-3 with a 4.83 ERA in seven home starts as well.  While Ramirez has held his own, he is clearly in over his head against Kershaw and this red hot Dodgers lineup.

The Dodgers are 40-11 as a favorite of -150 or more this season, winning by 2.7 runs per game on average.  The Dodgers are 34-7 in Kershaw's last 41 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher, winning by 2.5 runs per game on average.  The Dodgers are 21-1 in Karshaw's last 22 starts vs. teams who strand 6.9 or fewer runners on base over the last two seasons, winning by 3.0 runs per game.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.

20* NL Monday No-Doubt Rout on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (-110)

The Arizona Diamondbacks should win by multiple runs today over the lowly Philadelphia Phillies.  The Diamondbacks are 28-10 at home this season, hitting .289 and scoring 6.3 runs per game.  The Phillies are 10-30 on the road, hitting .236 and scoring 3.5 runs per game.

Zack Greinke is back to being Zack Greinke this season.  He has gone 8-4 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.048 WHIP In 15 starts, including a perfect 6-0 with a 2.77 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in eight home starts.  Greinke is also 6-1 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.909 WHIP in nine career starts against Philadelphia.

Nick Pivetta has had a rough go of it since being called up.  He is 1-3 with a 4.46 ERA and 1.488 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 1-2 with a 5.18 ERA and 1.767 WHIP in five road starts.

Philly is 1-11 after scoring one run or less this season, losing by 2.6 runs per game.  Greinke is 40-10 as a home favorite of -175 to -250 in his career, and his teams are winning by 2.1 runs per game.  Greinke is 23-4 in home games vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse in his career.  Bet the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Monday.

20* AL Thursday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees finally ended their 7-game losing streak with an 8-4 victory over the Los Angeles Angels yesterday.  I fully expect them to start a winning streak now and win this game by multiple runs over the Angels Thursday night.

Luis Severino has been awesome this season for the Yankees, going 5-2 with a 2.99 ERA and 1.045 WHIP in 13 starts.  He has tremendous stuff as he has struck out 90 batters in 81 1/3 innings, and the Angels don't have their best hitter in Mike Trout.

We'll gladly fade Jesse Chavez, who is 5-6 with a 4.69 ERA in 14 starts this season.  Chavez has been at his worst on the road, going 2-4 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.526 WHIP in seven starts away from home.

The Yankees are 19-5 in home games against right-handed starters this season, winning by 3.3 runs per game on average.  New York is 8-1 in its last nine home meetings with Los Angeles.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Thursday.

20* AL Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on New York Yankees -1.5 (-120)

The New York Yankees have not lost seven straight games.  It's safe to say they'll be highly motivated for a victory tonight against the Los Angeles Angels, who remain without Mike Trout.  I expect the Yankees to win by multiple runs tonight to end this skid.

Jordan Montgomery has been one of the more underrated starters in the big leagues this season.  The left-hander has gone 4-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in 12 starts, including 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.071 WHIP in his last three outings.

We'll gladly fade Ricky Nolasco, who is 2-8 with a 4.56 ERA and 1.392 WHIP in 14 starts this season for the Angels.  Nolasco certainly doesn't enjoy facing the Yankees, going 1-2 with a 5.91 ERA and 1.594 WHIP in four career starts against them.

The Yankees are 7-1 in their last eight home meetings with the Angels.  New York is 18-5 at home against right-handed starters this season, winning by over 3 runs per game on average.  The Angels are 0-9 in Nolasco's last nine starts overall.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Wednesday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

The Los Angeles Dodgers should have no problem beating the Cincinnati Reds by multiple runs tonight.  They have a huge edge on the mound as far as the starting pitchers are concerned, and in the bullpen.

Alex Wood has been unhittable this season, especially of late.  Wood is 5-0 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 3-0 with a 0.00 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in his last three starts.  Wood is 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two career starts against Cincinnati as well.

Asher Wojchiechowski is no more than a spot starter for the Reds.  He has struggled in his two starts this season, going 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.400 WHIP.  He gave up four earned runs and three homers in four innings of a 4-6 loss at Toronto in his only road start.

The Dodgers are 23-10 at home this season and winning by 2.2 runs per game on average.  Los Angeles is 21-3 in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 46% to 49%) over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 2.7 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-114)

The Cleveland Indians are highly motivated for a victory here Friday.  They have lost four of their last five and had yesterday off to regroup.  Fortunately, they get to play a team in the White Sox that are struggling worse than they are right now.  Chicago is 1-7 in its last eight games coming in.

Ace Corey Kluber gets the ball looking to end this skid.  Kluber is 4-2 with a 4.36 ERA and 1.246 WHIP in seven starts this season.  The right-hander is 7-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.118 WHIP in 15 career starts against Chicago, including 3-0 with a 0.81 ERA in his last three, allowing just 2 earned runs in 22 1/3 innings.

Miguel Gonzalez is 4-6 with a 4.83 ERA in 11 starts this season, 1-5 with a 5.74 ERA in seven road starts, and 1-2 with a 6.27 ERA in his last three starts overall.  Gonzalez has also posted a 4.37 ERA and 1.542 WHIP in six career starts against Cleveland.

Cleveland is 12-0 in June home games over the last two seasons, winning by an average of 4.5 runs per game.  The Indians are 31-9 after having lost four or five of their last six games over the last two seasons, winning by 2.5 runs per game on average.  Gonzalez is 0-9 when playing against a marginal winning team (Win Pct. 51% to 54%) over the last two seasons, and his teams are losing by 2.5 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Indians on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-110)

The Cleveland Indians have been basically automatic with Carlos Carrasco on the mound this season.  They have gone 8-2 in his 10 starts, including 5-0 in his five road starts.  Carrasco is clearly the ace of this staff right now.

Look for the Indians to be highly motivated after getting shut out by the Royals yesterday.  Carrasco is 5-2 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in 10 starts this season, including 4-0 with a 2.18 ERA and 0.818 WHIP in five road starts.  Carrasco is also 7-4 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.187 WHIP in 14 career starts against Kansas City.

Jason Hammel has been the worst starter for the Royals this season.  He is 1-6 with a 6.18 ERA and 1.706 WHIP in 10 starts this year.  And Hammel has struggled against the Indians, going 1-3 with a 5.13 ERA and 1.320 WHIP in six career starts against them.

The Indians are 20-5 in Carrasco's last 25 road starts vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse.  They are winning by 2.2 runs per game on average in this spot.  The Royals are 1-5 in Hammel's last six home starts, and 0-4 in his last four starts overall.  Bet the Indians on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105)

The Chicago Cubs have now lost five straight games and are highly motivated for a victory.  A loss today would mean they would get swept in two straight series, and they have now dipped below .500 for the season.  This team is simply too talented to keep struggling this badly.

Look for Jake Arrieta to get them out of the funk tonight and pitch a gem against the Padres.  Arrieta has a 4.00 ERA and 1.111 WHIP in his last three starts with 20 strikeouts in 18 innings.  The right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.64 ERA in his last two starts against San Diego, giving up just one earned run and 10 base runners in 14 innings.

Luis Perdomo has been one of the worst starters in baseball for the Padres.  He is 0-2 with a 5.61 ERA and 1.477 WHIP in eight starts this season, including 0-1 with a 7.11 ERA and 1.540 WHIP in five starts at pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

Arrieta is 19-3 against the money line as a road favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are winning these games by an average of 2.9 runs per game.  Arrieta is 20-3 against the money line in road games vs. teams whose hitters draw 3 walks or less/game over the last three seasons.  The Cubs are winning by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-125)

The Chicago Cubs will be highly motivated for a victory after getting embarrassed by the Los Angeles Dodgers over the weekend.  Not only were they swept, they were outscored 18-4 in the process.  It has clearly left a bad taste in their mouth.

Now they get to take on one of the worst teams in baseball in the San Diego Padres, who are 19-33 on the season and scoring just 3.4 runs per game, including 3.0 per game at home.  Jarred Cosart is 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA and 1.565 WHIP in four starts this season.  Cosart allowed 7 runs in 1 2/3 innings of a 2-7 loss to the Cubs in his only career start against them.

Cy Young winner Kyle Hendricks gets the ball looking to build on his 4-2 record with a 3.25 ERA and 1.158 WHIP in nine starts this season.  He is 2-1 with a 2.96 ERA and 0.986 WHIP in four road starts.  Hendricks has never lost to the Padres, going 3-0 with a 1.56 ERA and 0.836 WHIP in five career starts against them.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+100)

The Boston Red Sox are playing their best baseball of the season right now.  They have won six straight games all by three runs or more.  They have outscored the opposition 47-15 in the process, averaging 7.8 runs per game in the process.

The Seattle Mariners are 1-7 in their last eight games overall.  Remarkably, they have been held to one or fewer runs in all seven losses and are averaging just 1.1 runs per game in the process.

Rick Porcello is 6-4 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.132 WHIP in 11 career starts against Seattle.  Christian Bergman is 1-2 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.715 WHIP in three starts this season for the Mariners.  He allowed 10 runs, 4 homers and 16 base runners in 4 innings in his last start at Washington.

The Red Sox are 14-2 in Porcello's 16 starts when playing against a bad team (Win Pct. 38% to 46%) over the last three seasons.  They are winning by an average of 4.5 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Sunday.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-110)

I fully expect the Washington Nationals to win by multiple runs today against the lowly San Diego Padres.  Two of their best hitters in Ryan Zimmerman and Daniel Murphy rested yesterday, and the National still won 5-1.  Now both Murphy and Zimmerman are expected back in the lineup Saturday.

Stephen Strasburg is back to being his dominant self this season, going 5-1 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.110 WHIP in nine starts.  Strasburg is 5-1 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.167 WHIP in six career starts against San Diego.  In fact, they are 5-0 in his last five starts against them winning all five games by four runs or more.

Strasburg is 20-3 against the money line in the first half of the season over the last two seasons.  The Nationals are winning these starts by 2.5 runs per game on average.  San Diego is 15-51 in road games vs. a starting pitcher who strikes out five or more batters per start over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+120)

The Boston Red Sox are playing their best baseball of the season right now, especially at the plate.  They have won four straight coming in while scoring a combined 38 runs in the process, or an average of 9.5 runs per game.  The Mariners have lost five of six coming in.

The bats should stay red hot against Yovani Gallardo, who is 2-4 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in nine starts this season.  Gallardo has really struggled of late, going 1-1 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.600 WHIP in his last three starts.  He is also 2-2 with a 5.28 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in six career starts against Boston.

Eduardo Rodriquez has pitched like an ace thus far this season.  He has gone 3-1 with a 3.17 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in eight start, and 0-0 with a 2.38 ERA in two home starts.  Rodriquez gave up just one run and five base runners in 6 1/3 innings in his only career start against Seattle, which came last season.

Bets against all underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (SEATTLE) - with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 to 6.20 on the season (AL), with a cold starting pitcher whose ERA is 7.50 or worse over his last three starts are 55-13 (80.3%) over the last five seasons.  These teams are losing by 1.9 runs per game on average.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-120)

The Boston Red Sox are finally starting to hit the ball up to their potential with one of the best lineups in baseball.  They have scored a combined 23 runs over their past two games and should stay hot at the plate tonight against the Texas Rangers.

Martin Perez is one of the worst starters in baseball.  He has gone 2-5 with a 3.71 ERA and 1.549 WHIP in nine starts, and 0-2 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.772 WHIP in three road starts.  Perez is 2-2 with a 6.58 ERA and 1.923 WHIP in five career starts against Boston.  In his last start against the Red Sox, he gave up 11 runs, 7 earned, in 4 innings of a 6-11 loss.

Chris Sale is one of the elite starters in baseball.  He is 4-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in nine starts this season, striking out 95 batters in 65 2/3 innings.  The left-hander has gone 4-2 with a 3.33 ERA and 0.884 WHIP in seven career starts against Texas.  He has pitched 15 shutout innings while striking out 27 and allowing only 7 base runners in his last two starts against the Rangers.

Texas is 1-10 in road games with a team slugging percentage .410 or worse on the season (AL) this season.  It is losing by an average of 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  The Rangers are 2-8 in Perez's last 10 road starts.  The Red Sox are 10-1 in their last 11 home games vs. a left-handed starter.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (+100)

The Indians lost Game 1 to their in-state rivals in the Cincinnati Reds.  Now I expect them to bounce back in Game 2 with a blowout victory to cover the run line Tuesday.  That was a rare win for the Reds as they are just 2-8 in their last 10 games overall.  And the Reds have allowed at least 6 runs in seven of their last eight games coming in.

Amir Garrett is the next starter in line to get rocked for the Reds.  He is 3-3 with a 5.17 ERA and 1.300 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Garrett returned from a brief stint in the minors to give up 6 runs in 4 innings of a 5-9 loss at Chicago on May 18th.

Carlos Carrasco is the best starter that the Indians have to offer.  He is 4-2 with a 2.60 ERA and 0.884 WHIP In eight starts this season, including 4-0 with a 1.35 ERA and 0.675 WHIP in four road starts.  Carrasco is also 2-0 with a 3.50 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in three career starts against Cincinnati, and the Indians are 3-0 in those three games, winning all three by 2 runs or more.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Houston Astros -1.5 (+105)

The Houston Astros are living up to their massive potential this season.  They have gone 21-11 behind a dominant starting rotation, a solid offense that's hitting .275 and scoring 4.8 runs per game, and an elite bullpen with a 3.11 ERA on the season.

Charlie Morton has proven to be a nice addition to the rotation this season.  He has gone 3-2 with a 3.97 ERA in six starts this year, including 3-0 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.083 WHIP in four home starts.  Morton is 2-2 with a 3.96 ERA in five career starts against Atlanta.

The Braves have gone 1-6 in their last seven games overall.  Bartolo Colon is finally starting to wear down in his old age this season.  He has gone 1-3 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.424 WHIP in six starts, including 0-2 with a 6.95 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in four road starts.

Atlanta is 1-9 off a loss by 2 runs or less this season, losing by 2.4 runs per game in this spot.  Morton is 10-0 in home games in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  His teams are winning by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-105)

After getting embarrassed 10-5 at home by the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of this series yesterday, I expect a motivated effort from the Boston Red Sox today.  They'll also be motivated to get Chris Sale his first win of the season.

It's only due to a lack of run support that Sale doesn't have a win yet.  After all, he has posted a 1.23 ERA and 0.682 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up just 2 earned runs and 10 base runners over 14 2/3 innings.

Jake Odorizzi has gone 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two starts this season for the Rays.  Odorizzi is 3-3 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.292 WHIP in 13 career starts against Boston.  Sale is 4-4 with a 3.76 ERA and 1.044 WHIP in eight career starts against Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay is 4-17 (-13.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 2.70 or better over the last three seasons.  It is losing by 2.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Roll with the Red Sox on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Saturday PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-110)

The Chicago Cubs are coming off an extra innings loss to the Milwaukee Brewers last night.  I look for them to bounce back with a dominant performance tonight and win by multiple runs in Game 2 of this series Saturday.

Right-hander Kyle Hendricks will start for Chicago.  He'll be looking to improve on his 5-3 record and 2.11 ERA in 10 career starts against the Brewers, including a 3-1 mark and a 1.82 ERA in five starts at Miller Park.

Tommy Milone is no more than a fill-in starter for the Brewers.  The veteran left-hander moved into the rotation when Opening Day starter Junior Guerra was lost with a strained calf just three innings into his opening start.  Milone posted a 9.00 ERA in allowing 14 earned runs in 14 innings in Spring Training.

Chicago is 11-1 against the run line vs. good fielding teams who turn 1.1 or more double plays per game over the last two seasons.  Kendricks is 18-3 as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last two seasons, and the Cubs are winning these games by 2.5 runs per game on average.  Roll with the Cubs on the Run Line Saturday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+109)

The St. Louis Cardinals are on the outside looking in for the final wild card spot in the National League.  They are a half-game behind the San Francisco Giants.  They need this win Monday to pull even, and I believe they get it by multiple runs.

Jamie Garcia has been much better at home than on the road this year.  He is 6-8 with a 4.30 ERA and 1.231 WHIP in 17 home starts.  Garcia has pretty much owned the Reds, going 11-5 with a 3.48 ERA in 20 career starts against them.

Tim Adelman is 2-4 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.249 WHIP in 11 starts this season for the Reds.  He faced the Cardinals once, giving up three earned runs and two homers over five innings of a 2-5 loss on September 4th earlier this month.

Cincinnati is 2-13 in road games off two or more consecutive wins over the last two seasons.  St. Louis is 73-30 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last two years.  The Reds are 15-37 in their last 52 road games vs. a left-handed starter.  Cincinnati is 32-70 in its last 102 vs. a team with a winning record.  The Reds are 1-5 in Adelman's last six starts.  The Cardinals are 6-0 in Garcia's last six starts following an outing of less than four innings in his last appearance.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line.

15* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-125)

I'm back on the Giants today after a bad loss to the Padres last night.  This team simply has to get wins to make the playoffs, and I trust them to turn it around here at the end of the season, especially with their ace on the mound tonight.

Madison Bumgarner is 14-9 with a 2.62 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in 32 starts this season.  He is coming off a tremendous start where he allowed only one hit in seven shutout innings while striking out 10 against the Dodgers.  Bumgarner is 10-7 with a 3.31 ERA and 1.084 WHIP in 26 career starts against the Padres as well.

Jarred Cosart is still in search of his first victory for the Padres.  He is 0-4 with a 5.62 ERA and 1.696 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-3 with an 11.12 ERA and 1.853 WHIP in his last three.  Cosart has never beaten the Giants, going 0-2 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.761 WHIP in two career starts, allowing 10 earned runs and 23 base runners over 8 1/3 innings.

Bumgarner is 20-4 (+14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last three seasons.  The Giants are winning these games by 3.0 runs/game.  Roll with the Giants on the Run Line Saturday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals -1.5 (+101)

After back-to-back losses, the St. Louis Cardinals are now actually the first team out in the NL wild card race.  They are vying with the San Francisco Giants and New York Mets for the two spots.  They are just 1/2 game back of the Mets for the 2nd spot, so they'll be highly motivated tonight.

Carlos Martinez has been the unquestioned ace of St. Louis' staff.  He is 13-7 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.199 WHIP in 26 starts, including 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA in his last three.  Martinez has owned the Brewers, going 3-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 1.122 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Jimmy Nelson is 7-13 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.522 WHIP in 28 starts for the Brewers, including 2-7 with a 5.81 ERA and 1.725 WHIP in 13 road starts.  Nelson has never beaten the Cardinals, going 0-5 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.642 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Milwaukee is 1-16 (-14.9 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 0.5 or less HR's/start this season.  It is losing by 2.6 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Cardinals on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-128)

The Chicago Cubs should have no problem beating the lowly San Diego Padres by two runs or more today.  They have a massive edge on the mound in Game 1 of this series and should provide Jon Lester with plenty of run support.

Lester has gone 13-4 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.074 WHIP in 24 starts this season, including 2-0 with a 2.29 ERA and 0.864 WHIP in his last three.  Lester is 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA and 1.091 WHIP in three career starts against San Diego, though this will be his first-ever start at Petco Park.

Edwin Jackson has gone 3-2 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.431 WHIP in six starts this season for the Padres.  Injuries and trades have depleted the Padres' rotation, which is the only reason Jackson is even in the majors.  Jackson is 3-3 with a 5.36 ERA and 1.377 WHIP in eight career starts against Chicago.

Lester is 43-8 (+23.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -200 or more in his career.  His teams are winning these games by 3.1 runs per game.  Lester is 20-3 (+15.3 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last two seasons.  The Cubs are winning these games by 2.5 runs per game.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-125)

The Chicago Cubs are rolling right now.  They have won seven of their last eight games overall and now enter a series with the lowly Oakland A's, who have lost five of their last six coming in.

The Cubs have a huge edge on the mound tonight behind Jon Lester, who is 11-4 with a 2.95 ERA and 1.106 WHIP in 21 starts this season.  Lester is 5-4 with a 3.64 ERA in 14 career starts against Oakland, including 1-0 with a 1.15 ERA in his last two, giving up just 2 earned runs in 15 2/3 innings.

The A's pitching staff is an absolute mess.  Dillon Overton has been horrible in limited action, going 1-2 with a 9.33 ERA and 2.182 WHIP in four starts this season.  He has given up 19 earned runs and 9 homers over 18 1/3 innings this year.

Lester is 42-8 (+22.8 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -200 or more in his career.  His teams are winning by 3.1 runs per game on average in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-127)

The San Francisco Giants got off to an awful start after the All-Star Break.  But they are finally getting healthy with the recent returns of key players, plus the addition of Eduardo Nunez.  They have won two straight and I look for them to beat the Phillies by multiple runs tonight.

Ace Madison Bumgarner gets the ball for the Giants.  The left-hander has gone 10-6 with a 2.15 ERA and 0.982 WHIP in 22 starts this season with 170 K's in 150 2/3 innings.  Bumgarner is 4-3 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.073 WHIP in nine career starts against Philadelphia.

At 48-59 on the season, the Phillies have played themselves out of postseason contention.  They are hitting .219 and scoring 2.9 runs per game at home this year.  Zach Eflin is 3-4 with a 4.23 ERA in nine starts this season.  He gave up 7 runs and 13 base runners over 5 innings in his last start against Miami on July 27.

Bumgarner is 22-4 (+16.7 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 to 8.5 over the last two seasons.  The Giants are winning by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  Bumgarner is 20-3 (+17.4 Units) against the money line in road games vs. NL teams scoring 4.3 or less runs/game on the season over the last three seasons.  San Francisco is winning these games by 3.3 runs per game.  Bet the Giants on the Run Line Tuesday.

20* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-103)

The Boston Red Sox are rolling right now in going 8-1 in their last nine games overall.  They have won seven of those games by two runs or more.  I believe they cover the Run Line with ease today against the lowly Minnesota Twins.

Steven Wright has earned All-Star status this season in going 11-5 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.183 WHIP in 18 starts.  Wright is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in two career starts against Minnesota.  He faces the Twins on June 10 this season, not allowing a single earned run in 7 1/3 innings of an 8-1 victory.

Tyler Duffey is 5-6 with a 5.23 ERA and 1.384 WHIP in 15 starts this season for the Twins.  Duffey faced Wright and the Red Sox on June 10, giving up 6 earned runs and 10 hits in 5 1/3 innings of that 1-8 defeat.

Minnesota is 4-22 (-16.5 Units) against the money line after three or more consecutive road games this season.  It is losing by 1.7 runs per game in this spot.  The Red Sox are 6-0 in their last six home games.  Boston is 8-2 in Wright's last 10 starts and 5-1 in his last six home starts.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on San Francisco Giants -1.5 (-130)

The San Francisco Giants are highly motivated for a victory today.  They have lost their first two games back from the All-Star Break to the Padres, including a blown save yesterday in the 9th inning.  Look for them to avoid the sweep and win by multiple runs Sunday.

Johnny  Cueto has been awesome this season, going 13-1 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.997 WHIP in 18 starts.  Cueto is 8-0 with a 2.51 ERA and 1.066 WHIP in nine road starts.  The right-hander is 7-3 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.013 WHIP in 11 career starts against the Padres.

Cueto has been untouchable against the Padres in 2016, going 3-0 with a 0.33 ERA while allowing only one earned run in 27 innings.  He'll be opposed by the washed-up Edwin Jackson, who is 2-4 with a 5.24 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in eight career starts against San Francisco.

Cueto is 9-0 (+9.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.  The Giants are winning by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Cueto is 15-1 (+13.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -110 or higher this season.  The Giants are winning by 2.8 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Giants on the Run Line Sunday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-105)

The Chicago Cubs have lost four straight for the second time in two weeks.  It's safe to say they are going to be highly motivated for a victory when they return home from an 11-game road trip today in Game 1 of this series against the Cincinnati Reds.

I look for the Cubs to win by multiple runs due to their edge on the mound.  Kyle Hendricks is 6-6 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.040 WHIP in 15 starts this season, including 4-1 with a 1.74 ERA and 0.793 WHIP in in seven home starts.  Hendricks is 2-1 with a 4.04 ERA in six career starts against the Reds.

Cody Reed has not fared well in limited action this season.  He's 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA and 1.812 WHIP in three starts.  One of those starts was against the Cubs on June 29.  Reed allowed 7 earned runs and 3 homers over 4 innings of a 2-9 loss to Hendricks and the Cubs.

Cincinnati is 1-12 (-10.9 Units) against the money line revenging a home loss vs opponent of 6 runs or more over the last two seasons.  It is losing by 3.0 runs per game in this spot.  The Reds are 2-16 (-14.2 Units) against the money line revenging a 3 game sweep at the hands of their opponents over the last three seasons.  They are losing by 3.4 runs per game in this spot.  Chicago is 11-0 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in home games after a loss by 6 runs or more over the last three seasons.  It is winning by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Boston Red Sox -1.5 (-106)

Steven Wright has been the best starter for the Boston Red Sox all season.  I look for him to dominate the struggling Chicago White Sox today and for the Red Sox to win by multiple runs as a result.

Wright has been nothing short of brilliant all season, going 8-4 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.119 WHIP in 13 starts.  He is 3-0 with a 1.37 ERA and 1.221 WHIP in his last three starts as well.  Wright is also 1-1 with a 2.77 ERA and 1.154 WHIP in two career starts against Chicago.

Miguel Gonzalez hasn't been able to provide the White Sox with the lift they had hoped for in their rotation.  He's 1-2 with a 4.89 ERA and 1.559 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Gonzalez has allowed at least 3 earned runs in four of his last five starts against Boston while not once pitching past the 6th inning.

Chicago is 0-8 (-8.9 Units) against the money line after six consecutive games versus division rivals this season.  It is losing by 2.4 runs per game on average in this spot.  The White Sox are 4-15 against the run line (-13.3 Units) after having lost six or seven of its last eight games this season.  Bet the Red Sox on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-141)

The Cubs have gone 10-2 in their last 12 games overall to improve to 39-16 on the season for the MLB's best record.  But they are coming off a loss yesterday, which will have them motivated in Game 1 of this series against the lowly Philadelphia Phillies.

The Cubs have a massive advantage on the mound today that will lead them to victory by multiple runs.  Jon Lester is 6-3 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.019 WHIP in 11 starts this season.  Lester has never lost to the Phillies, going 5-0 with a 1.71 ERA and 0.972 WHIP in seven career starts against them.

Adam Morgan is clearly the worst starter in the Phillies' rotation.  He's 1-4 with a 7.06 ERA and 1.514 WHIP in seven starts this season.  Morgan has never beaten the Cubs, going 0-2 with a 10.00 ERA and 1.989 WHIP in two career starts against them.

Chicago is 16-5 against the run line (+11.5 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season.  The Cubs are a very profitable 34-21 against the run line (+13.1 Units) in all games this season.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (+111)

The Rockies have lost two of the first three games of this series to the Reds and four of their last five overall.  They'll be hungry to square the series in Game 4 here tonight and to get back in the win column.  I like their chances of doing so by multiple runs due to their edge on the mound and at the plate.

Eddie Butler has certainly held his own this season, going 2-2 with a 4.55 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in five starts.  He has only given up 32 base runners in 27 2/3 innings and has been unfortunate to give up 14 earned runs with those results.

Alfredo Simon has been one of the worst starters in baseball.  He's 1-5 with a 9.15 ERA and 2.008 WHIP in nine starts, including 0-3 with a monstrous 13.85 ERA and 2.846 WHIP in four road starts.  Simon is also 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA and 2.375 WHIP in two career starts against Colorado.

Cincinnati is 12-24 against the run line (-16.5 Units) in night games this season.  The Reds are 5-15 against the run line (-12.1 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +165 to -135 this season.  Cincinnati is 2-9 in Simon's last 11 road starts.  The Reds are 19-49 in their last 68 overall.  Take the Rockies on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Colorado Rockies -1.5 (-109)

The Colorado Rockies exploded for 17 runs in a 17-4 beat down of the Cincinnati Reds yesterday to put an end to a 3-game losing streak.  Look for their bats to stay red hot today and for them to win by multiple runs thanks to their massive advantage on the mound.

Tyler Chatwood has been nothing short of brilliant for the Rockies, going 6-3 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.147 WHIP in 10 starts, including 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in his last three.  He has given up just one earned run over 13 innings in his last two starts.

John Lamb is still looking for his first win of the season for the Reds.  Lamb is 0-3 with a 6.84 ERA and 1.817 WHIP in five starts this season, including 0-2 with a 15.25 ERA and 2.868 WHIP in two road starts.

The Reds are 0-5 in Lamb's five starts this season and 0-8 in his last eight starts overall.  Plays against all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (CINCINNATI) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 46-12 (79.3%, +32.8 units) over the last five seasons.

Colorado is 19-4 against the run line (+16.5 Units) vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last two seasons.  Cincinnati is 0-10 against the run line (-11.4 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +110 to +155 this season.  Bet the Rockies on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 (+108)

The Arizona Diamondbacks are highly motivated for a victory tonight after losing four straight games coming in.  I look for them to get back in the win column tonight against the lowly San Diego Padres by multiple runs thanks to the edge they have on the mound.

Ace Zack Greinke gets the ball to stop the bleeding.  Greinke is coming around, going 2-1 with a 3.43 ERA and 1.048 WHIP in his last three starts.  He has owned the Padres, going 6-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.807 WHIP in 13 career starts against them.

Cesar Vargas wouldn't start on most teams in the majors.  He's 0-2 with a 3.34 ERA and 1.485 WHIP in six starts this season, including 0-1 with a 5.02 ERA and 1.954 WHIP in three road starts.  Look for the Diamondbacks to get on him early and often in this one.

Greinke is 25-3 (+18.5 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -200 or more in his career.  His teams are winning by an average of 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  Enough said.  Take the Diamondbacks on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-109)

After losing three of their last four games overall, the Chicago Cubs come into this series with the San Francisco Giants highly motivated for a victory.  I look for them to take Game 1 by two runs or more thanks to the massive edge they have on the mound tonight.

Jake Arrieta has been the best starter in baseball since midseason last year.  He has opened the 2016 campaign 7-0 with a 1.29 ERA and 0.839 WHIP in eight starts, including 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA and 0.633 WHIP in four road starts.  Arrieta is also 3-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in four career starts against San Francisco.  In two starts against the Giants last season, Arrieta went 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, pitching 13 2/3 shutout innings.

There may not be a starter in baseball that I like fading more than Jake Peavy.  The guy is simply done for.  Peavy is 1-4 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.750 WHIP in eight starts this season for the Giants, giving up 33 runs in 40 innings.  He won't last long today against one of the best lineups in baseball in the Cubs.

Arrieta is 21-3 against the run line (+19.4 Units) in road games over the last two seasons.  Arrieta is 7-0 against the run line (+7.7 Units) against NL West opponents over the last two seasons.  Arrieta is 21-4 against the run line (+19.6 Units) in night games over the last two seasons.  Peavy is 7-20 against the run line (-15.8 Units) in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago White Sox -1.5 (+130)

The Chicago White Sox are highly motivated for a victory tonight.  They have lost six of their last seven games coming in with those six losses coming by a combined 8 runs.  Their lone win during this stretch was a 7-1 victory over the Yankees with Chris Sale tossing a complete game.

Sale is arguably the best starter in baseball this season.  He has gone 8-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 0.758 WHIP in eight starts.  The left-hander has owned the Astros, going 3-1 with a 0.56 ERA and 0.719 WHIP in four career starts against them.  He has given up just 2 earned runs in 32 innings with 47 strikeouts.

Collin McHugh has been awful for the Astros.  He is 4-3 with a 5.58 ERA and 1.711 WHIP in eight starts, including 1-1 with an 8.74 ERA and 2.118 WHIP in three road starts.  McHugh is also 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA in his lone career start against Chicago.

Sale is 17-2 (+14.6 Units) against the money line in May games in his career with the Sox winning by 2.4 runs per game.  Chicago is 17-3 (+15.5 Units) against the money line in home games after 3 straight losses by 2 runs or less since 1997, winning by 2.3 runs per game.  Instead of laying the big juice on the money line, we'll back the White Sox on the run line today.  Take Chicago on the Run Line Thursday.

15* NL PLAY OF THE DAY on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-115)

Taking the Chicago Cubs on the Run Line has been a very profitable move all season considering they are scoring 5.9 runs per game and giving up 2.9 runs per game for the best run differential in baseball.  We'll back them on the Run Line Tuesday against the Milwaukee Brewers.

Kyle Hendricks is having a fine season just like the rest of the Cubs' starting staff.  He is 2-2 with a 2.78 ERA and 0.981 WHIP in six starts, including 1-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last three.  Hendricks has owned the Brewers, going 4-1 with a 1.49 ERA and 0.874 WHIP in his last seven starts against them.

I'll gladly bet against Chase Anderson today.  The right-hander is 1-5 with a 6.11 ERA and 1.642 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-2 with a 7.43 ERA and 2.176 WHIP in three home starts.  Anderson is also 0-3 with an 8.22 ERA and 1.631 WHIP in his last three outings.

The Cubs are 13-3 against the run line (+9.9 Units) in road games this season.  Chicago is 14-4 against the run line (+10.0 Units) vs. division opponents this season.  The Cubs are 7-0 against the run line (+8.2 Units) after a loss this season.  Chicago is 10-0 against the run line (+11.0 Units) vs. teams whose hitters draw 4 walks or more/game over the last three seasons.  Take the Cubs on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Cleveland Indians -1.5 (-114)

I'm going to back the Cleveland Indians on the run line today due to the massive edge they have on the mound.  It also doesn't hurt that they come in with a lot of confidence at the plate after throttling the Cincinnati Reds 15-6 Monday.

Look for Danny Salazar to continue his torrid start to 2016.  The right-hander is 3-2 with a 1.90 ERA and 1.031 WHIP in seven starts this season, including 1-1 with a 1.23 ERA and 0.750 WHIP in two home starts.  Salazar has struck out 53 batters in 42 2/3 innings.

Alfredo Simon has been one of the worst starters in the majors this season.  He is 1-3 with a 7.96 ERA and 1.807 WHIP in six starts, including 0-2 with a 15.42 ERA and 3.640 WHIP in two road starts.  Simon gave up 5 earned runs and 12 base runners over 6 2/3 innings in his lone start at Cleveland last season.

Plays against all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+110 to +155) (CINCINNATI) - with a team batting average of .255 or worse on the season (NL), after a loss by 6 runs or more are 42-12 (77.8%, +28.7 units) over the last five seasons.  Cincinnati is 0-7 against the run line (-8.1 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +110 to +155 this season.  Roll with the Indians on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Tuesday No-Doubt Rout on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (+102)

Any time Jake Arrieta takes the mound, it's a good idea to bet the Chicago Cubs on the Run Line.  Arrieta (5-0, 1.00 ERA this season) is 16-0 with a 0.69 ERA in 18 regular-season starts since last losing on July 25 of last season.

The Cubs have won 18 straight games in which Arrieta has started.  They have won 19 of his last 21 starts by 2 runs or more.  Arrieta is 7-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.779 WHIP in 10 career starts against Pittsburgh with his teams winning seven of those 10 starts by 2 runs or more.

Jon Niese isn't about to beat Arrieta today.  The left-hander has posted a 5.08 ERA and 1.483 WHIP in five starts this season for Pittsburgh.  Niese is 3-6 with a 4.76 ERA and 1.551 WHIP in 10 career starts against Chicago.

Arrieta is 20-3 against the run line (+18.4 Units) in road games over the last two seasons with the Cubs winning by an average of 3.7 runs per game.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Sunday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-120)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are highly motivated for a victory here Sunday to put an end to a 6-game losing streak.  Now they send ace Clayton Kershaw to the mound to do the dirty work, and I believe they win this game by multiple runs over the San Diego Padres today.

Kershaw has been dominant again this season, going 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA and 0.811 WHIP in five starts.  The left-hander has owned the Padres, going 13-6 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.065 WHIP in 28 career starts against them.  Kershaw has gone 5-0 in his last eight starts against the Padres while allowing seven earned runs, 25 hits, 13 walks while recording 75 strikeouts in 55 1/3 innings.

Drew Pomeranz has pitched well at home for San Diego, but he's just 1-2 with a 4.11 ERA and 1.500 WHIP in three road starts this season.  Pomeranz is also 0-2 with a 4.34 ERA and 1.714 WHIP in four career starts against Los Angeles.

Pomeranz is 0-7 (-9.1 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons, with his teams losing by 2.0 runs per game in this spot.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Sunday.

15* MLB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+104)

I fully expect the Washington Nationals to win this game by multiple runs tonight against the hapless Atlanta Braves.  The Braves are 0-7 this season while losing five of those seven games by two-plus runs.

Stephen Strasburg gave up one earned run in 6 innings of a 3-1 victory over Atlanta in his first start this season.  He is now 4-0 with a 0.38 ERA in his last four starts against Atlanta, giving up just one earned run in 24 innings.

Matt Wisler has not enjoyed the same kind of success against the Nationals.  He is 2-2 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in four career starts against Washington.

Atlanta is 11-40 (-21.2 Units) against the money line as an underdog of +150 or more over the last 2 seasons, losing by an average of 2.6 runs/game in this spot.  Bet the Nationals Wednesday.

15* MLB Thursday PLAY OF THE DAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-110)

It's going to be exciting to see the atmosphere in Toronto today with a fan base starved for playoff baseball.  They've been waiting 22 years for this moment.  They last time they made the playoffs in 1993, they won it all behind a star-studded lineup.

This Toronto team is even more explosive than that one.  Toronto was the only team to top 800 runs this season, and it was 127 runs better than second-place.  That's the biggest gap between the No. 1 and No. 2 offenses since 1953.  The Blue Jays scored double-digit runs 26 times this season.  They also lead the majors in homers (232), RBIs (852) and walks (570).

David Price proved to be a huge addition to the rotation prior to the deadline.  The left-hander has gone 9-1 with a 2.30 ERA in 11 starts after he was acquired from Detroit on July 30.  He'll be up against Yovani Gallardo, who struggled down the stretch going 1-1 with a 4.20 ERA and 2.000 WHIP in his last three starts.

Toronto os a perfect 10-0 against the money line in home games off two or more consecutive losses this season.  It is winning by 4.7 runs per game in this spot.  Price is 11-1 against the money line in day games this season.  His teams are winning by 2.6 runs per game in this spot.  Roll with the Blue Jays on the Run Line.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Angels -1.5 (-116)

The Los Angeles Angels are the hottest team in baseball right now.  They are 7-0 in their last seven games overall and have saved their best for last when these games have mattered most.  They are currently the second wild card in the American League and only two games back of Texas for first place in the AL West.

The Oakland A's packed it in a long time ago.  They are just 1-9 in their last 10 games overall.  They are even giving Barry Zito a start tonight just to honor him as this will be his last season.  He gave up four earned runs in two innings of a 10-14 loss to San Francisco in his only start of the season on September 26.

Los Angeles will be giving the ball to one of its best starters tonight in Garrett Richards.  He is 15-11 with a 5.73 ERA and 1.244 WHIP in 30 starts.  But Richards has been at his best at home, going 10-4 with a 3.08 ERA and 1.117 WHIP in 16 starts this year.  He has allowed just 5 earned runs over 19 innings in his last three starts against the A's.

Oakland is 1-12 (-10.8 Units) against the money line in road games after batting .240 or worse over a 20 game span this season.  It is losing by 3.3 runs per game in this spot.  Zito is 0-11 (-11.0 Units) against the money line as a road underdog of +100 or higher over the last two seasons.  His teams are losing by 3.7 runs per game in this spot.  Richards is 19-3 (+13.7 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -150 or more over the last three seasons.  The Angels are winning by 2.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Angels on the Run Line Wednesday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-133)

I'll back the Chicago Cubs on the run line today and avoid the -300 juice.  Rarely will you see a baseball team laying -300 juice unless they have a massive advantage on the mound.  That's certainly the case for the Cubs tonight.

Jake Arrieta is a deserving candidate of the 2015 NL Cy Young Award.  He has gone 19-6 with a 1.96 ERA and 0.923 WHIP in 30 starts this season.  Arrieta has been untouchable in the second half, posting 17 straight quality starts while going 13-1 with a 1.01 ERA during that stretch.

I'll gladly fade Tyler Cravy of the Brewers.  The right-hander is 0-7 with a 6.42 ERA and 1.721 WHIP in five starts and six relief appearances in 2015, including 0-3 with a 10.50 ERA and 2.333 WHIP in his last three starts.  Cravy faced the Cubs on August 13, giving up four earned runs, eight base runners and two homers over 4 1/3 innings of a 2-9 loss in Chicago.

Arrieta is 14-1 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in the second half of the season this season with the Cubs winning by 2.6 runs/game.  He has gone 13-2 against the run line during this stretch.  Bet the Cubs on the Run Line Tuesday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Los Angeles Angels +1.5 (-115)

The Los Angeles Angels trail the Houston Astros by 2.5 games for the final wild card spot in the American League.  They cannot afford to lose this series to the Astros if they want to make the postseason.  Look for them to come out with an inspired effort in Game 1 Monday.

Jered Weaver has pitched very well of late, going 1-1 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.260 WHIP in his last three starts.  One of those was against Houston on September 11 as Weaver allowed two earned runs in six innings of a 3-2 victory.  He improved to 5-2 with a 2.47 ERA and 0.841 WHIP in eight career starts against the Astros.

Dallas Keuchel was dominant in the first half of the season, but he has slowed down here of late.  Keuchel allowed nine earned runs and three homers over 4 2/3 innings in his last start against the Rangers.  He sports a 4.13 ERA and 1.393 WHIP in 10 career starts against the Angels.

Houston is 7-23 against the run line (-18.2 Units) vs. AL teams scoring 4.2 or less runs/game in the second half of the season this season.  The Astros are 3-13 in their last 16 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.  Houston is 1-7 in its last eight games following a win.  In a game that could easily be decided by one run, we'll take the Angels at a great price on the Run Line Monday.

15* AL Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Cleveland Indians +1.5 (-124)

Instead of taking the Cleveland Indians as +130 underdogs, I'm going to take the extra run here by paying 54 cents of juice.  I believe the Indians will win this game, but at only -124 on the run line it's worth taking the extra run.  The Indians still have a shot at the wild card as they are only four games back.

Cody Anderson has been one of the more underrated starters in baseball this season.  He has gone 4-3 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in 12 starts, including 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 0.911 WHIP in his last three.  Those three came against the Tigers (twice) and Blue Jays, so he has pitched well against great lineups.

Chris Sale is overvalued here.  The White Sox are out of contention and have nothing to play for.  Sale has struggled of late, going 0-2 with a 7.16 ERA and 1.653 WHIP in his last three starts.  One of those came against the Indians on September 7 as he allowed three runs on three homers in a 2-3 loss.  He is 4-5 with a 4.23 ERA in 13 career starts against Cleveland.

Sale is 12-28 against the run line (-15.1 Units) vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season over the last two seasons.  Chicago is 16-43 against the run line (-20.7 Units) as a favorite when the run line price is -190 to +175 this season.  Sale is 1-12 against the run line (-11.0 Units) as a road favorite when the run line price is +105 to +130 in his career.  Take Cleveland on the Run Line.

20* MLB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on New York Yankees -1.5 (-115)

The New York Yankees put an end to a 2-game skid with an emphatic 15-4 win over the Braves yesterday.  The Braves even had to pitch a positional player.  While the Yankees are playing for the AL East Title, the Braves have packed it in a long time ago.  They are 1-10 in their last 11 games overall with nine of those losses coming by two runs or more.

Yankees rookie Luis Severino has lived up to the hype in limited action this season.  He is 1-2 with a 2.74 ERA and 1.087 WHIP over four starts with 24 strikeouts in 23 innings.  This guy is one of the top young prospects in the game and has carried over his success from the minors.

Matt Wisler has been a big disappointment for the Braves.  Wisler is 5-4 with a 5.43 ERA and 1.593 WHIP in 12 starts this season, including 0-2 with a 7.81 ERA and 2.052 WHIP in his last three starts.

Atlanta is 0-11 (-12.3 Units) against the money line vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .320 or worse in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.  It is losing by an average of 3.2 runs per game in this spot.  Bet the Yankees on the Run Line Saturday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE MONTH on Pittsburgh Pirates -1.5 (-115)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (76-49) are showing great value today even on the run line as favorites against the Miami Marlins (51-76).  The Marlins are 1-5 in their last six games overall with all five losses coming by two runs or more.  That trend will continue tonight.

Gerrit Cole is one of the best starters in baseball.  He has gone 14-7 with a 2.49 ERA and 1.128 WHIP in 25 starts this season, including 6-4 with a 2.22 ERA and 1.156 WHIP in 12 road starts.  Cole gave up two earned runs in 7 innings of a 5-2 win over the Marlins on May 27 in his only start against them in 2015.

Justin Nicolino has held his own in limited action this season for the Marlins, going 2-1 with a 3.77 ERA in five starts.  But he's 0-1 with a 5.71 ERA in three home starts.  Nicolino won't get any run support here as the Marlins have scored two or fewer runs in five of their last six games.

Miami is 11-20 against the run line (-14.2 Units) vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season this season.  The Marlins are 4-16 against the run line (-14.7 Units) after a game where they stranded 3 or less runners on base over the last two seasons.  The Pirates are 11-1 in Cole's last 12 starts vs. NL East foes.  Bet the Pirates on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (+102)

After losing the first three games of this series to the Texas Rangers, the Los Angeles Dodgers are going to be highly motivated for a victory in Game 4 to avoid the sweep tonight.  I like their chances to win this game by multiple runs due to the massive edge they have on the mound.

Zach Greinke has posted NL Cy Young-caliber numbers to this point.  He has gone 5-2 with a 1.95 ERA and 0.969 WHIP over 13 starts, including 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA and 0.942 WHIP in eight home starts.  Greinke sports a 2.91 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in 12 career starts against Texas as well.

Anthony Ranuado has made just one start this season for Texas, and it was a horrible one.  He gave up six earned runs and eight base runners over 1 2/3 innings of a 10-2 loss to the Angels on April 15th.  I expect he'll get roughed up by this potent Dodgers' lineup today as well.

Greinke is 13-2 against the run line (+13.7 Units) after two or more consecutive losses over the last three seasons.  The Dodgers are winning in this spot by an average of 3.2 runs per game.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Thursday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-115)

Clayton Kershaw hasn't pitched the NL Cy Young & MVP Award level that he did last year.  He's just 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA and 1.163 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  However, it's only a matter of time before he returns to his dominant old self.

Kershaw is coming off arguably his best start of the season against the Braves.  He pitched seven shutout innings while allowing just four base runners and striking out 10 in an 8-0 victory on May 26th.  Look for him to build off that start tonight.

Kyle Kendrick is no match for Kershaw.  The right-hander has gone 2-6 with a 6.38 ERA and 1.401 WHIP in 10 starts this season.  He has been at his worst at home, going 0-2 with a 7.86 ERA and 1.582 WHIP in three starts at Coors Field.  Kendrick is 3-8 with a 6.29 ERA and 1.679 WHIP in 12 career starts against Los Angeles.

What really intrigues me about this play is Kershaw's recent performances against Colorado.  The left-hander is 15-5 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.176 WHIP in 29 career starts against the Rockies.  In fact, the Dodgers are 11-1 against the run line in Kershaw's last 12 starts against Colorado, winning 11 of those 12 starts by 2 runs or more.  Bet the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday.

15* MLB Run Line PLAY OF THE DAY on Atlanta Braves +1.5 (-130)

The Atlanta Braves are massive road underdogs to the Los Angeles Dodgers on the money line today.  While I was tempted to go with the money line, I believe the smart play is to take them on the run line in a game that has an excellent chance of being decided by a single run.

This game is expected to be a low-scoring, pitcher's duel with the two studs that are on the mound tonight.  I trust in Alex Wood to put forth one of his best efforts of the season tonight against Zach Greinke and the Dodgers.

Wood has gone 2-2 with a 3.83 ERA in eight starts this year.  He has been at his best on the road, going 2-0 with a 2.61 ERA in five starts away from home.  In his lone career start against the Dodgers last year, Wood allowed one earned run in 7 innings of a 2-3 loss in L.A.

Atlanta is 371-174 against the run line (+77.9 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is -190 to +165 since 1997.  Plays on all underdogs against a 1.5 run line. (Money Line =+165 to -135) (ATLANTA) - bad offensive team (4.1 runs/game or less) against a good starting pitcher (ERA 3.70 or less) (NL), with an on base percentage of .285 or worse over their last five games are 229-132 (63.4%, +82.6 units) since 1997.  Take the Braves on the Run Line Wednesday.

15* MLB Friday No-Doubt Rout on Washington Nationals -1.5 (-112)

The Washington Nationals get the call today against the Philadelphia Phillies.  Instead of laying heavy -270 juice to back the Nationals on the money line, I'm going to save a ton of juice and take them on the run line in this one.

The Nationals are 17-4 in their last 21 games overall.  A whopping 10 of their last 12 wins have come by 2 runs or more.  Max Scherzer is 4-3 with a 1.75 ERA and 0.918 WHIP in eight starts this season.  Scherzer is 2-1 with a 1.50 ERA and 0.917 WHIP in four career starts against Philadelphia.

Sean O'Sullivan gets the ball for the Phillies.  The right-hander has gone 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA in four starts this year, including 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA in one road start, which was a 7-2 loss at Washington against Scherzer on April 17th.  O'Sullivan is 0-1 with a 4.91 ERA in two career starts against Washington.

Scherzer is 8-0 against the run line (+8.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last two seasons.  Philadelphia is 3-19 against the run line (-15.8 Units) as a road underdog when the run line price is +105 to +120 since 1997.  Scherzer is 9-0 against the run line (+9.0 Units) as a home favorite when the run line price is -120 to -155 over the last three seasons.  Roll with the Nationals on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-105)

The Los Angeles Dodgers are showing solid value on the run line today with ace Clayton Kershaw on the mound against the worst team in baseball in the Milwaukee Brewers and the struggling Kyle Lohse.

The 2014 NL Cy Young and MVP winner isn't off to the greatest start in 2015, but he is still 1-2 with a respectable 3.73 ERA, including 1-1 with a 2.37 ERA in his last three starts.  Kershaw is 5-4 with a 3.05 ERA in 10 career starts against Milwaukee.

Lohse has been brutal in the early going.  He has gone 1-4 with a 7.28 ERA through five starts.  Lohse has allowed 8 homers and 24 earned runs over 29 2/3 innings this season.  He is 2-4 with a 4.42 ERA in 10 career starts against Los Angeles.

Kershaw is 20-5 against the run line (+15.7 Units) in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 3 seasons.  Kershaw is 13-2 against the run line (+11.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Los Angeles is 22-4 against the run line (+19.2 Units) in road games after scoring 1 run or less over the last 3 seasons.  Milwaukee is 2-12 against the run line (-13.4 Units) in night games this season.  Take the Dodgers on the Run Line Monday.

20* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE WEEK on Washington Nationals -1.5 (+101)

The Washington Nationals are back on track with two straight blowout victories to get to 4-6 on the season.  They have outscored their last two opponents 15-7, and I look for third straight victory by multiple runs tonight due to their edge on the mound and at the plate.

Max Scherzer, the top free agent this offseason, is already living up to his $210 million contract.  He has posted a 0.66 ERA and 1.024 WHIP in two starts this season, giving up just one earned run over 13 2/3 innings.  Scherzer is 1-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 1.125 WHIP in three career starts against Philadelphia.

Sean O'Sullivan is part of one of the worst starting staffs in baseball.  He certainly wouldn't make many rotations in the league other than Philadelphia.  That's because he is 10-17 with a 5.84 ERA and 1.555 WHIP over 237 1/3 innings in his six-year career in the majors.

Scherzer is 11-1 against the run line (+10.1 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last three seasons.  His teams are outscoring the opposition 6.8 to 2.6 in this spot, or by an average of 4.2 runs per game.  Bet the Nationals on the Run Line Friday.

25* MLB Run Line GAME OF THE YEAR on St. Louis Cardinals +1.5 (-135)

We are getting serious value on the St. Louis Cardinals on the run line in Game 1 of this series with the Los Angeles Dodgers.  Clayton Kershaw being nearly a 2-1 favorite on the money line over Adam Wainwright is an absolute joke, and we'll take advantage by backing the Cardinals on the run line in a game that could easily be decided by one run either way.

If not for Kershaw, Wainwright would be your 2014 NL Cy Young winner.  He has gone 20-9 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.031 WHIP over 32 starts, yet he doesn't get near the recognition that Kershaw does.  Look for him to take this one personal and to be on top of his game tonight.

Wainwright has been at his best on the road this season, going 11-6 with a 1.72 ERA and 0.934 WHIP in 18 road starts.  He saved his best stuff for last as well, going 3-0 with a 0.37 ERA and 0.792 WHIP in his last three starts.

Wainwright has posted a 2.83 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 13 career starts against Los Angeles.  Kershaw, meanwhile, is 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.305 WHIP in 17 career starts against St. Louis. 

In Wainwright's 13 starts against Los Angeles, only twice have the Cardinals lost by more than one run.  In Kershaw's 17 starts against St. Louis, only four times have the Dodgers won by more than one run.

Kershaw is 1-10 against the run line (-9.5 Units) in home games after a game where he did not walk a batter over the last three seasons.  Kershaw is 3-17 against the run line (-14.6 Units) in home games in Friday games in his career.   The Cardinals are 53-24 in Wainwright's last 77 starts.  Take the Cardinals on the Run Line Friday.

15* MLB Monday No-Doubt Rout on Detroit Tigers -1.5 (-108)

While the Detroit Tigers (83-66) haven't completely lived up to expectations thus far in 2014, they are still in first place in the AL Central by 1.5 games.  They have also turned it on here of late when these games have mattered the most.  I look for them to win by 2-plus runs against the lowly Minnesota Twins (63-86) in Game 1 of this series tonight.

Max Scherzer is having another dominant season to really prove his worth.  The right-hander is 16-5 with a 3.19 ERA and 1.168 WHIP over 30 starts this year.  Scherzer is 8-2 with a 4.48 ERA and 1.228 WHIP in 14 career starts against Minnesota.  He has won each of his last five starts against the Twins with three of those coming by 2-plus runs.

Anthony Swarzak makes just his second start of the season for Minnesota.  He has gone 3-1 with a 3.95 ERA and 1.342 WHIP over 73 innings pitched this year with almost all of those coming as a reliever.  Swarzak has been owned by Detroit, going 0-2 with a monstrous 12.65 ERA and 2.249 WHIP in three career starts against the Tigers.

Minnesota is 6-25 (-17.7 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.20 or better this season, losing by 2.4 runs/game.  The Twins are 4-28 (-23.8 Units) against the money line vs. an AL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.200 or better this season, losing by 2.9 runs/game. 

The Tigers are 42-13 in Scherzer's last 55 starts as a favorite.  Scherzer is 6-0 against the run line (+7.4 Units) vs. poor power teams - averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game in the second half of the season this season.  Take the Tigers Monday.

15* MLB Friday Late-Night BAILOUT on Houston Astros +1.5 (-120)

The Houston Astros have been playing great every since manager Bo Porter was fired.  They have won eight of their last 10 games overall despite being an underdog in eight of those contests.  I expect them to win tonight, but I'm taking them on the run line for some added insurance.

This is a tough spot for the Angels.  They will be returning from a 10-game road trip that saw them go 8-2.  That first home game back from a long road trip is tough on players because they have household obligations, which can be a distraction.  Also, the Angels have all but wrapped up the best record in the AL, so it could be tough to stay motivated.

I'll gladly fade C.J. Wilson, who is 11-9 with a 4.64 ERA and 1.446 WHIP in 27 starts this season.  Houston is batting .447 against Wilson in his last three starts in the series, during which he's gone 0-2 with a 13.94 ERA.  He has allowed 16 earned runs, 4 homers and 28 base runners over 10 1/3 innings during this stretch.

Houston is 45-23 against the run line (+17.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.  The Astros are 30-14 against the run line (+13.2 Units) vs. left-handed starters this season.  Houston is 70-45 against the run line (+15.5 Units) after a win over the last 2 seasons.  Oberholtzer is 13-4 against the run line (+8.7 Units) as an underdog when the run line price is +165 to -135 over the last 2 seasons.  Roll with the Astros on the Run Line.