15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on East Carolina +3.5

East Carolina is better than Tulane, period.  The Pirates should not be underdogs in this game, especially against a Tulane team that was down to their third-string QB against Houston last week.  They are overvalued due to winning that game 27-24 in a game they had no business winning.  They were outgained 273 to 383 by Houston, or by 110 total yards.

This line indicates the Green Wave will get QB Michael Pratt back this week from a shoulder injury even though he's listed as questionable.  But it's not going to matter.  The Green Wave are a fraudulent 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS this season, and it's time to 'sell high' on them.  This is a team that went 2-10 last season and is exceeding expectations and getting too much respect now as a result.

East Carolina is 3-2 and should be 5-0.  They have outgained all five opponents this season.  That includes their 20-21 loss to NC State in which they missed an extra point late.  They also outgained Navy by 27 yards in their 3-point OT loss, so they are 4 points away from being undefeated.  They have elite numbers on both sides of the football despite playing a pretty tough schedule.

East Carolina is averaging 35.2 points per game, 486 yards per game and 6.9 yards per play on offense.  They are only giving up 20.6 points per game, 371 yards per game and 5.9 per play on defense.  I love their balanced offense that averages 172 yards per game on the ground and 314 yards per game through the air.  Holton Ahlers is arguably the best QB in the conference.  He is completing 68.6% of his passes with a 15-to-3 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 81 yards and a score.

East Carolina crushed Tulane 52-29 last year and gained 612 total yards in a dominant effort.  Ahlers threw for 288 yards and two touchdowns and also rushed for a score.  The Pirates are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as road underdogs of 7 points or less.  Tulane is 0-10 ATS in its last 10 games off a close road win by 3 points or less, losing by a whopping 27.6 points per game in this spot.  The Pirates are 11-2-1 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Green Wave get exposed this week.  Bet East Carolina Saturday.

20* AAC GAME OF THE MONTH on South Florida +28

Cincinnati isn't as good as last year when they made the four-team playoff.  Making the playoff has them overvalued this season.  No question the Bearcats are still the class of the AAC, but they should not be favored by four touchdowns over South Florida this week.

Their only win this season by more than 21 points came against Keenesaw State as a 29-point favorite.  They also beat Miami Ohio by 21 and their backup QB.  They only outgained a bad Indiana team by 46 yards in a misleading 45-24 final.  And last week they only outgained Tulsa by 79 yards in a 10-point victory.

I'm not high on South Florida as I faded them last week with a free pick on East Carolina that cashed in a 48-28 win as 9.5-point favorites.  However, I was impressed that USF kept trying to punch back after getting down big early.  And we've seen them nearly upset Florida in a 28-31 loss as 23-point road underdogs.  If they were 23-point road dogs to Florida, they should not be 28-point dogs to Cincinnati.

USF just owns Cincinnati from a point spread perspective.  Indeed, the Bulls are a perfect 7-0 ATS In the last seven meetings.  In fact, dating back to 2003, Cincinnati hasn't beaten South Florida by more than 22 points in any of their 19 meetings.  That makes for a 19-0 system backing the Bulls pertaining to this 28-point spread.  Roll with South Florida Saturday.

15* TCU/Kansas FS1 Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas +7

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.  They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke two weeks ago, a Blue Devils team that is 4-0 in all other games this season.  

Last week, it seemed everyone thought they'd lose to Iowa State, but they pulled out the 14-11 upset as 3.5-point underdogs and I backed them again.  I'm back on them again this week because they are still getting disrespected as 7-point home underdogs to TCU.  ESPN College Gameday will be in Lawrence this week to cover this team and their 5-0 start, so there will be no letdown for the Jayhawks, especially learning that they are underdogs again.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 41.6 points per game, 421.0 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 385 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.1 yards per play.  Their defense showed last week they could win a game for them when needed.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 220 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry.  They are also completing 68.8% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

I think this is a bad spot for TCU, and they are getting way too much respect for their 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma.  That's the same Oklahoma team that was upset by Kansas State at home the previous week and clearly has issues.  Plus, Oklahoma QB Dillon Gabriel got injured in the first half against TCU, and they were doomed from there.  But unlike Kansas, TCU is getting respect for its 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS start this season.  They will meet their match this week in the Jayhawks.

The Jayhawks are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall and covering by 16.3 points per game.  That includes their 28-31 loss at TCU as 21-point dogs last year, which they will be out for revenge for to add to their motivation.  I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now.  Roll with Kansas Saturday.

15* Big Ten PLAY OF THE DAY on Michigan/Indiana UNDER 59

Indiana isn't going to be able to score enough on this elite Michigan defense to be able to top 59 combined points.  The books have missed their mark badly with this one.  The Hoosiers have some serious injury issues at receiver that are hampering their offense.  Two starters in Cam Camper and DJ Matthews are questionable while both Smith and Baker are out.

The Hoosiers managed just 21 points and 290 total yards against a terrible Nebraska defense last week.  That's the same Nebraska defense that gave up 49 points to Oklahoma, 45 to Georgia Southern and 31 to Northwestern.  This Indiana offense is only averaging 4.8 yards per play, but they do have a solid defense that is allowing 5.5 yards per play against teams that normally average 6.0 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.

Michigan has another elite defense this season in allowing just 11.6 points per game, 252.0 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play.  Michigan loves to run the football, averaging 40 rush attempts per game compared to 25 passing.  They will get off to a big early lead and then sit on it with their running game, which will help us cash this UNDER ticket.

These teams combined for just 36 points last season.  In fact, each of the last six meetings between Michigan and Indiana have seen 59 or fewer combined points, making for a 6-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 59-point total.  They have combined for an average of just 44.8 points per game at the end of regulation in their last six meetings.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Indiana) - after one or more consecutive losses, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 70-29 (70.7%) over the last five seasons.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Tennessee -2.5

I love this spot for the Tennessee Vols.  They are coming off a bye week after their big win over Florida.  Now they have two full weeks to prepare for the LSU Tigers and will be the fresher team.  And I don't think the country has caught up to how good the Volunteers are this season.  They are legitimate SEC title contenders.

The Volunteers have arguably the most underrated quarterback in the entire country in Hendon Hooker.  He now has a 39-to-3 TD/INT ratio over the past two seasons along with eight rushing touchdowns.  Hooker and Josh Heupel have this offense humming, averaging 48.5 points per game, 559.3 yards per game and 7.4 yards per play against opponents that normally allow 31 points per game, 414 yards per game and 5.8 per play.  

The defense is holding opponents to 19.0 points per game and 5.3 yards per play against offenses that normally average 27.0 points per game and 5.8 yards per play.  Florida put up a lot of points and yards late to hurt those averages when the game was already decided, and that was really a misleading 38-33 final.

I just don't think LSU is very good and it's going to take some time for Brian Kelly to get them back to SEC title contention.  They lost to Florida State in the opener before reeling off three straight home wins with two of them coming against Southern and New Mexico.  The Mississippi State win was a good one, so they deserve credit for that.

But last week's 21-17 win at Auburn was very alarming.  That's an Auburn team that is way down this season and nearly lost to both San Jose State and Missouri at home.  They were outgained 438 to 270 by Auburn, or by 168 total yards.  Auburn gave that game away by committing four turnovers, including one that was returned for a TD when they led 17-0.  That's also an Auburn team that lost 41-12 at home to Penn State and was playing with a backup QB against LSU.

Now LSU will be playing for a 6th consecutive week, while Tennessee comes in rested and ready to go.  Fatigue and injuries will catch up with the Tigers this week.  I also like a hidden factor here, which is that the kickoff is at 12:00 EST Saturday afternoon.  Baton Rouge at night is a much more difficult place to play than Baton Rouge in the early window on Saturday's.

The road team is 6-0-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Tennessee is 21-7 ATS in its last 28 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* UNLV/SJSU MWC Late-Night BAILOUT on UNLV +7

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most improved teams in the country.  There has been nothing fluky about their 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS start this season.  Their lone loss came on the road to Cal as 13-point underdogs by a final of 20-14.  They won their other four games by double-digits by 31 over Idaho State, by 31 over North Texas, by 10 over Utah State and by 11 over New Mexico.

Doug Brumfield is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country and gets no national attention.  He is completing 70.5% of his passes for 1,223 yards with eight touchdowns and only two interceptions, while also rushing for 142 yards and five scores.  It has been a balanced offensive attack that has been tough to tame with the Rebels averaging 169 yards on the ground and 254 yards through the air.  They are scoring 37.8 points per game.

The Rebels have an improved defense this season as well.  They are allowing just 22.4 points per game, 356.6 yards per game and 5.2 yards per play.  This is at least an average defense now, plus one of the best offenses in the MAC.  They should be able to give San Jose State all they can handle in this one.

I think San Jose State is getting too much credit for its 3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS start.  The lone loss came at Auburn, and while it was competitive, Auburn is way down this season.  They only beat Portland State by 4 as 22-point favorites.  They beat a Western Michigan team that was playing with a freshman QB and a Wyoming team that was playing with another terrible QB.  They have faced four bad quarterbacks this season and haven't faced anyone nearly as talented as Brumfeld.

A bad UNLV team gave San Jose State a run for its money last year in a 27-20 defeat.  I think both teams are improved, but there's no question the Rebels are more improved.  These teams have faced similar strength of schedules and have similar numbers.  UNLV is outgaining teams by 66 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play, while San Jose State is outgaining teams by 61 yards per game and 0.8 yards per play.  This game should be lined much closer to PK than -7.

Brent Brennan is 0-7 ATS in home games with a total of 49.5 to 56 points as the coach of San Jose State having never covered in this spot with the Spartans losing by a whopping 26.3 points per game.  The Rebels are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  Bet UNLV Friday.

20* SMU/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on SMU +3

The SMU Mustangs are just 2-2 this season but I've been very impressed with them.  After beating North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16 to open the season, they lost a pair of one-score games to Maryland and TCU, two Power 5 opponents.  Those also happen to be two of the most improved teams in the country.

SMU lost 27-34 at Maryland and should have won that game.  They gained 520 yards on the Terrapins and outgained them by 79 yards.  That's the same Maryland team that almost beat Michigan on the road, and that came back to crush Michigan State 27-13 at home.

SMU also lost 34-42 at home to TCU as a 2.5-point underdog.  The Mustangs gained 476 yards on the Horned Frogs and were only outgained by 11 yards.  That's the same TCU team that is 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS this season and coming off a 55-24 upset win over Oklahoma as a 5-point underdog.

UCF has played a much softer schedule and is 3-1 SU despite being favored in all four games.  They beat South Carolina State 56-10 before losing to Louisville 14-20 as a 5.5-point favorite.  THey beat FAU 40-14 on the road before topping Georgia Tech 27-10 at home.  But that win over awful Georgia Tech was very misleading.  The Knights actually gave up 452 yards to the Yellow Jackets and were outgained by 119 yards.  They allowed 314 passing yards to what is a poor GT passing offense.

SMU crushed UCF 55-28 last season as a 7-point home favorite.  They had 36 first downs compared to just 15 for UCF and outgained them 631 to 333, or by 298 total yards.  Now the Mustangs come back as a 3-point underdog a year later.  Their offense is as potent as it was last year, and their defense is better than it was expected to be as well.

SMU is averaging 6.4 yards per play on offense against teams that allow 5.8 yards per play, averaging 0.6 yards per play more than their opponents normally allow.  SMU is allowing 5.7 yards per play against teams that average 6.2 yards per play, holding them to 0.5 yards per play below their season averages.  Those are elite numbers compared to UCF, which is at 6.1  yards per play on offense against teams that allow 6.1 per play on defense, and 5.0 yards per play on defense against teams that average 5.1 yards per play on offense.

UCF is 6-18 ATS in its last 24 conference games.  Bet SMU Wednesday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Georgia Tech +23

It's time to 'buy low' on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets after a 1-3 start against a brutal schedule and some misleading results mixed in.  The three losses have come to Clemson, Ole Miss and UCF as the Yellow Jackets have played the 8th-toughest schedule in the country.

They were in a dog fight with Clemson in the opener in what was a 14-10 game late in the 3rd quarter before the Tigers scored 27 unanswered points to finish, including two touchdowns in the final six minutes.  They were only outgained by 141 yards by the Tigers.

Last week, Georgia Tech lost 27-10 at UCF despite outgaining the Knights 452 to 333, or by 119 total yards.  They arguably should have pulled the outright upset as 21-point dogs, but lost by 17.  These misleading finals and difficult schedule have the Yellow Jackets undervalued.

I was looking to fade Pitt coming into the season with all they lost in the offseason.  The Panthers were overvalued after winning the ACC last year.  They lost QB Kenny Pickett and star receiver Jordan Addison.  Those players have proven to be irreplaceable as Kedon Slovis is a big downgrade at QB.

Pitt is 3-1 but should be 2-2.  They lost to Tennessee in OT, and they beat WVU by 7 only after a fluky pick-6 to go ahead in the final minutes.  The other two wins came against overmatched Western Michigan and Rhode Island teams.  The Panthers are just 1-3 ATS this season and have proven to be good fade material, and I expect them to continue to be good fade material in this spot this week.

Georgia Tech's numbers are pretty good.  They average 0.1 yards per play less on offense than their opponents give up on average (5.1 to 5.2), and they are holding opponents to 0.6 yards per play less than they average (5.5 to 6.1).  Pitt is averaging only 0.1 yards per play more on offense than their opponents give up on average, and holding opponents to 0.8 yards per play less than their season average.

Plays on road teams (Georgia Tech) - off one or more consecutive unders, a poor offensive team that is scoring 17 or fewer points per game are 53-23 (69.7%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.  The Panthers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  They only beat Rhode Island by 21 as 34.5-point favorites in their last home games.  The Yellow Jackets can easily stay within 21 as well.  Roll with Georgia Tech Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on LSU -8.5

It's no surprise that the LSU Tigers are improving rapidly as the season goes on under first-head head coach Brian Kelly, who is one of the best in the country.  The 23-24 loss to Florida State in the opener doesn't look that bad now when we've seen what the Seminoles have done since.

LSU has gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS since with a 65-17 win over Southern, a 31-16 win over a very good Mississippi State team outright as underdogs, and a 38-0 win over New Mexico as 31-point favorites.  The injuries have gone LSU's way leading into this game.

QB Jayden Daniels left in the 3rd quarter with a lower back injury against New Mexico.  He didn't return despite being cleared, and it was more for precautionary reasons with the game already in hand.  He should be playing this week.  Starting nickel Jay Ward missed last game but returned to practice this week.  RB Armoni Goodwin is day-to-day but likely to play as well.  Edge rusher BJ Ojulari was held out against the Lobos as a precaution.

While LSU is a team I want shares of moving forward, I want to sell all my Auburn stock.  Brian Harsin is on the hot seat and I'm be surprised if he survives the season after going 6-7 year.  The Tigers should be 2-2 as they were gifted a win last week by Missouri.  Missouri missed a chip shot field goal at the end of regulation, then fumbled going into the end zone for the game winning score in OT.  Auburn did everything in their power to give Missouri the game.

That came after an ugly 12-41 home loss to Penn State.  LSU is better than Penn State, and I think it will be a similar blowout.  Auburn barely beat San Jose State 24-16 the week prior as 24-point favorites, and failed to cover against Mercer in a 42-16 win as 30-point favorites in the opener.  Auburn is now 0-4 ATS this season and about to fall to 0-5 ATS this week.

Making matters worse for Auburn is that they are going to be without starting QB TJ Finley this week.  Backup Zach Calzada is out with injury as well, and third-string freshman Robby Ashford has not been good.  He has completed just 27-of-47 passes for 372 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions while playing in parts of all four games.

Auburn is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games when the total is 42.5 to 49 points.  Plays on road teams (LSU) - allowing 200 or fewer total yards per game in their last two games, with an experienced QB vs. an opponent with an inexperienced QB are 56-22 (71.8%) ATS since 1992.  Auburn is 0-5 ATS in its last five home games.  Bet LSU Saturday.

25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Troy +5.5

I was high on Troy coming into the season and they have delivered.  The Trojans returned 18 starters this season.  They opened with a 28-10 loss at Ole Miss as 21.5-point dogs and were only outgained by 87 yards.  Ole Miss appears to be one of the best teams in the country.  They followed it up with a 38-17 win over Alabama A&M.

They should be 3-1, losing 32-28 at Appalachian State on a fluke hail mary on the final play of the game as 14-point underdogs.  App State is the king of the Sun Belt, so the fact that they should have beaten them says all you need to know.  And had they beaten them, they certainly would not be 5.5-point underdogs this week.

I was impressed with how Troy got back up off the mat and upset Marshall 16-7 as 3.5-point underdogs last week.  That's the same Marshall team that had upset Notre Dame on the road earlier this season.  The Trojans dominated more than the final score would suggest, too.  They outgained Marshall 421 to 174, or by 247 total yards and should have won by more even.

Troy has arguably the best defense in the Sun Belt and a much improved offense this season led by Gunnar Watson, who is averaging 312 passing yards per game and completing 66.4% of his passes despite the tough competition.  He and the Trojans have done this against the 43rd-ranked schedule in the country.

You know who hasn't played a tough schedule? That's Western Kentucky.  They have played the 175th-ranked schedule in the country.  They are getting too much respect for their 3-1 start with the three wins coming against Hawaii, FIU and Austin Peay.  FIU and Hawaii may be the two worst teams in FBS, and Austin Peay is one of the worst teams in FCS.  They did play Indiana tough in their lone loss, but Indiana isn't very good this year, either.

I was down on Western Kentucky coming into the season because they only returned 11 starters and lost all of their top playmakers from last season.  They lost QB Bailey Zappe and his 5,967 yards and 62 touchdowns, plus his top two receivers in Sterns and Tinsley who combined for 3,304 yards and 31 touchdowns last year.  The offensive numbers are gaudy again this season, but that's more due to the lack of competition.  It's time to 'sell high' on this WKU team off that 73-0 win over FIU.

Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (WKU) - in a game involving two excellent passing teams averaging 8.3 or more yards per attempt, after allowing 5.5 or fewer passing yards per attempt last game are 34-12 (73.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Hilltoppers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. Sun Belt foes.  I'll gladly take Sun Belt over C-USA in this matchup as I strongly believe the Trojans are the better, more complete team.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on FAU/North Texas OVER 67.5

Expect some offensive fireworks between Florida Atlantic and North Texas Saturday and little defense being played.  These are two of the most up-tempo offenses in the country, and that's going to help us cash this OVER 67.5 ticket.

North Texas is scoring 32.2 points per game, averaging 475 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play this season while running 74 plays per game.  FAU is scoring 32.6 points per game, averaging 459 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while running 73 plays per game.

Both defenses can be had, especially North Texas.  The Mean Green are allowing 38.0 points per game, 469 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play while defending 74 plays per game.  The Owls are allowing 26.2 points per game, 402 yards per game and 5.9 yards per play and 68 plays per game against teams that only average 5.6 yards per play, so they have a below average defense and haven't faced many good offenses.  They even got to play Purdue last week without their starting QB.

North Texas is 8-1 OVER in its last nine games after allowing 17 points or more in the first half of two consecutive games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Mean Green last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  The OVER is 4-1-1 in Mean Green last six games following a loss.  Take the OVER in this game Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Kansas +3

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.  They covered in a 35-27 win as 7-point favorites against Duke last week, a Blue Devils team that was 3-0 coming into that game.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 48.5 points per game, 472.5 yards per game and 7.9 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 400 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.3 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 246 rushing yards per game and 6.8 per carry.  They are also completing 71.3% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

Despite the 4-0 start against solid competition, Kansas is unranked.  I think the Jayhawks will be playing with a chip on their shoulder again this week because of it.  They won't have a letdown because they want that respect and to avenge a blowout loss at Iowa State last year.  This is an Iowa State team that isn't nearly as talented as they were last season.

The Cyclones are 3-1 but the three wins came against three terrible teams in SE Missouri State, Iowa and Ohio.  They met their match last week with a 24-31 home loss to Baylor.  And now this will be their toughest road test of the season against a Kansas team that fans are excited about, selling out last week against Duke.  It will be another sellout Saturday against the Cyclones.

Iowa State is 0-6 ATS when facing a team with a winning percentage above 75% over the last three seasons.  The Cyclones are 5-19 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. teams who commit one or fewer turnovers per game.  The Jayhawks are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall and covering by 18.1 points per game.  I have been on them for almost every game and I'm not about to jump off the train now.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Northwestern +26.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Northwestern Wildcats.  After opening the season with a 31-28 upset win as 10.5-point dogs to Nebraska in the opener, the Wildcats have promptly gone 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their last three games overall, all as favorites.  Now they are back in their preferred underdog role, which is where Pat Fitzgerald always seems to get the most out of his teams.

Turnover luck has not been on the Wildcats' side as they have already committed 10 turnovers in four games, which is the biggest reason for their struggles.  They have moved the football just fine with an improved offense that is putting up 447.3 yards per game this season.  They are actually outgaining opponents by 55 yards per game despite the 1-3 record.  They will make enough plays on offense to stay within this inflated number against Penn State.

Penn State struggled last week in a 33-14 win over Central Michigan as 28-point favorites.  And it's worth noting the Chippewas were -4 in turnovers and still only lost by 19.  That makes me believe Northwestern can stay within this number if Central Michigan did.  I also think Penn State could be looking ahead to their showdown with Michigan.  It's a great time to 'sell high' on the Nittany Lions after a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season.  Turnover luck has been on their side as they are +8 in turnovers through four games.

Northwestern is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 road games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse.  The Wildcats are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games after a loss by 3 points or less.  Pat Fitzgerald is 34-21 ATS as a road underdog as the coach of Northwestern.  The Nittany Lions are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.  Roll with Northwestern Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Michigan -10.5

Michigan crushed Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship Game last year.  I don't see anything changing in the rematch this year.  Michigan looks as good if not better than last year when they made the four-team playoff, and Iowa looks worse to this point.

After crushing Colorado State by 44, Hawaii by 46 and UConn by 59, Michigan finally got tested last week in a 34-27 win over Maryland as 17-point favorites.  I was happy to see Michigan get tested, and that will serve them well moving forward.  That's a vastly improved Maryland team that is going to give a lot of people trouble in the Big Ten this season.

Iowa's offense is not going to give Michigan any trouble.  The Hawkeyes are averaging just 17.0 points per game, 232.5 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play this season despite playing a pretty soft schedule of South Dakota State, Iowa State, Nevada and Rutgers.  Their 27-10 win over Rutgers last week was very misleading as they scored two defensive touchdowns and were outgained by 84 yards by the Scarlet Knights.  That misleading score is providing us with some line value on Michigan this week.

Spencer Petras is one of the worst quarterbacks in the country.  He is completing just 51.1% of his passes for 524 yards and 5.6 per attempt with only one touchdown and two interceptions in four games.  Usually Iowa can rely on its running game amidst poor QB play, but that's not the case this season.  They have one of the worst offensive lines of the Kirk Ferentz era.  The Hawkeyes are averaging just 102 rushing yards per game and 3.0 per carry this season.  

I just don't see how Iowa is going to be able to score enough points to stay within this number.  Their only hope is to get defensive and special teams touchdowns, but that's not going to happen.  Michigan has been mistake-free for the most part committing only two turnovers in four games.  Michigan's offense is even more potent this year with the switch to J.J. McCarthy at QB.  He is completing 80% of his passes and averaging 11.6 yards per attempt with a 5-to-0 TD/INT ratio while taking over for Cade McNamara.

Iowa has some injuries that are also contributing to its poor start this season.  Three of the top four receivers on the depth chart are out in Johnson, Vines and Ritter.  Two starters are out on defense in LB Jestin Jacobs and CB Jermari Harris as well.  Michigan is very healthy with only McNamara out, but that's addition by subtraction.  LB Hill-Green and LG Trevor Keegan are both questionable.

Plays against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Iowa) - in conference games, off a win against a conference rival are 43-13 (76.8%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays against home underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Iowa) - in conference games, off a road win against a conference rival are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Kirk Ferentz is 0-7 ATS in home games after leading in the last two games by 14 or more points at halftime as the coach of Iowa.  Take Michigan Saturday.

20* Washington/UCLA ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on UNDER 66

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the UNDER between UCLA and Washington Friday night.  Both teams are 4-0 and both have put up gaudy numbers on offense against suspect competition defensively.  That has inflated this total to the point where there's value with the UNDER.

Washington is scoring 44.0 points per game and putting up 530.8 yards per game this season.  But they have played four terrible defenses in Kent State, Portland State, Michigan State and Stanford.  UCLA is averaging 41.8 points per game and 508.3 yards per game, but those numbers have also come against four terrible defenses in Bowling Green, Alabama State, South Alabama and Colorado.

These two offenses will finally meet some resistance against the best defenses they will have faced all season, and it's not even close.  UCLA is allowing just 18.0 points per game, 301.0 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play this season.  Washington is allowing just 19.0 points per game, 302.0 yards per game and 4.8 yards per play.  And that has come against three decent offenses in Michigan State, Stanford and Kent State.

These teams met last season with UCLA beating Washington 24-17 for just 41 combined points and a 55-point total.  This total is now 11 points higher than last year.  I get that Washington is a better offensive team under first-year head coach Kalen DeBoer, but this is too big of an adjustment.

Both teams rely heavily on the run, which is going to keep the clock moving.  The Bruins average 38 attempts and 220 yards per game, while the Huskies average 36 attempts for 162 yards per game.  Both teams are elite at stopping the run.  The Huskies are allowing just 89 rushing yards per game and 2.6 per carry, while the Bruins are giving up 90 rushing yards per game and 2.8 per carry.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Washington) - after scoring 31 points or more in three consecutive games against an opponent that has two consecutive games where 60 or more points were scored are 62-27 (69.7%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 19-6-1 in Huskies last 26 road games.  The UNDER is 17-7 in Bruins last 24 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  Bet the UNDER in this game Friday.

20* Tulane/Houston ESPN No-Brainer on Houston -2.5

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Houston Cougars.  They have played a very tough schedule and have gotten through it at 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS.  They lost to Texas Tech and Kansas, beat UTSA which won 12 games last year, and also beat an improved Rice team that upset Louisiana the previous week.

Remember, Houston went 12-2 last year and returned 13 starters this season including QB Clayton Tune and stud receiver Tank Dell.  This isn't the start they wanted, but they realize they have everything ahead of them in the American Athletic.  Now they will be pumped for their conference opener Friday night as they host Tulane.

While Houston (36th) has played one of the toughest schedules in the country, Tulane (166th) has played one of the weakest.  The result has been a 3-1 start that featured an upset win at Kansas State.  That win had them overvalued last week, and I took advantage and backed Southern Miss as the Golden Eagles beat the Green Wave outright as 13-point underdogs.  And I'll gladly fade Tulane again as I still believe them to be overvalued from that K-State win.

Remember, Tulane went 2-10 last year.  No question the Green Wave are improved this season, but they should not be basically a PK on the road at Houston.  The Cougars have owned the Green Wave each of the last two seasons.  They won 49-31 at home in 2020 and 40-22 on the road in 2021.  Tune has thrown for 607 yards and 5 touchdowns in those two victories and figures to light them up again.  This game may be closer than the last two years, but Houston should still get it done by a FG or more.

The Green Wave are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 Friday games.  The Cougars are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 Friday games.  The favorite is 15-3 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Cougars are 14-4 ATS in the last 18 meetings.  Tulane is 2-7 ATS in its last nine trips to Houston.  Roll with Houston Friday.

20* Utah State/BYU ESPN No-Brainer on UNDER 62

The Utah State Aggies and BYU Cougars play in a rivalry game Thursday night in Provo.  I look for points to be at a premium in this rivalry game.  BYU will get their points, but I don't think Utah State will do their part to score enough to get to 62 combined points in this one.

Utah State is way down compared to last season offensively.  The Aggies lost all of their top playmakers from last year's team.  It hasn't gone nearly as smoothly for QB Logan Bonner as it did last year.  The Aggies are only averaging 15.5 points, 345.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play this season.  This despite playing UConn, FCS Weber State and UNLV, which are three terrible defenses.  But the Aggies have held their own defensively, allowing just 5.6 yards per play against teams that average 5.9 yards per play.

Like I said, BYU will get their points, but I expect them to shut down Utah State.  The Cougars have a ton of talent on defense with all 11 starters back from last year.  They are holding teams to just 321.8 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play, holding teams 66 yards per game and 0.9 yards per play below their season averages to this point.

These teams met last year with BYU winning 34-20 for just 54 combined points and a 65.5-point total.  That was with an elite Utah State offense last year.  They have only adjusted this total down 3.5 points from last year, and that's not enough for how down Utah State's offense is.

The UNDER is 5-0 in Aggies last five games overall.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six non-conference games.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Cougars last eight Thursday games.  The UNDER is 6-0 in Aggies last six games vs. good passing teams with a completion percentage of 58% or better.  The UNDER is 7-0 in Aggies last seven games following an ATS loss.  These five trends combine for a 31-1 system backing the UNDER.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Southern Miss +13

Southern Miss is going to be one of the most improved teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles went 3-9 last year, had just 62 scholarship players, lost their Top 5 QB's on offense due to injury and actually started 10 different players at quarterback.  They started 1-9 and kept fighting, winning their final two games despite playing a RB at QB.

That's a sign of the players continuing to play hard for Will Hall.  Now Hall enters his second season with the team, players are familiar with his systems, and they have created a ton of depth due to all the injuries last year.  The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and can only get better health at QB.  Each of the top 10 tacklers are back on defense as well from a unit that was solid last year in giving up 27.9 points and 359 yards per game.

To no surprise to myself, the Golden Eagles are 3-0 ATS this season.  I took them and they covered in a 27-29 loss as 3.5-point underdogs to Liberty in the opener.  That's a Liberty team that nearly upset Wake Forest last week, losing 36-37 as 18-point road underdogs.  Unfortunately, QB Ty Keyes got injured in that opener against Liberty and it's probably the reason they lost.

Keyes sat out against Miami in Week 2, but they still managed to cover in a 30-7 loss at 27-point underdogs.  But Keyes returned last week to lead the Golden Eagles to a 64-10 win over Northwestern State as 34-point favorites.  He went 6-of-9 for 192 yards and three touchdowns before giving way to the backups.  He is a dual threat who has also rushed for 56 yards and a score on 12 carries this season.  Despite the tough schedule, the defense is balling out again holding opponents to 23.0 points per game, 375 yards per game and 5.0 yards per play.

Tulane is also 3-0 ATS, but this team is the one being overvalued.  That's because the Green Wave are coming off a shocking 17-10 upset win as 13-point dogs at Kansas State.  But K-State is getting terrible QB play this season from Adrian Martinez, and it was a massive lookahead spot for the Wildcats with Oklahoma on deck this week.

Tulane's other two wins came against UMass and Alcorn State.  Those are two of the worst teams in the country in FBS and FCS, respectively.  Remember, the Green Wave went just 2-10 last season.  While they are improved as well, they should not be 13-point favorites over Southern Miss.  Especially with this now being a big letdown spot after the win over Kansas State, and a sandwich spot with Houston on deck next week.

Tulane is 4-17 ATS in its last 21 games following an upset win as a road underdog.  The Golden Eagles are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.  Southern Miss is 6-0 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Take Southern Miss Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona +3

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They added in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback, and this already looks like one of the most improved teams in the country.

I backed Arizona in Week 1 as 6.5-point underdogs at San Diego State.  That was a no sweat winner as Arizona rolled to a 38-20 victory, gaining 461 total yards and holding the Aztecs to 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards.  De Laura lived up to the hype, throwing for 299 yards and four touchdowns with one pick in the win.

Arizona came back and lost to Mississippi State at home in Week 2, but then upset #1 Ranked FCS power North Dakota State 31-28 last week.  The Wildcats have been through the gauntlet already with a brutal schedule and have gotten through at 2-1 despite being underdogs in all three games.  Now they are a dog to California and they shouldn't be.

Cal is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back.  I have not been impressed with them at all as they had a narrow win 20-14 over UNLV and beat Cal Davis 34-13 for their lone victories.  They did cover in a 17-24 loss at Notre Dame last week, but that's the same Notre Dame team that was upset by Marshall the previous week.  The Fighting Irish are clearly down.

This is a bad spot for Cal now after facing a program the caliber of Notre Dame on the road.  Now they return home where they have one of the worst home-field advantages in the country as fans just don't show up to their games.  Keep in mind Arizona's lone win last season came against Cal and they dominated, outgaining them 331 to 122, or by 209 total yards.  They were -3 in turnovers and still won that game.  Arizona is improved this season, while Cal is worse, so it should lead to another upset victory for the Wildcats.

Cal is 3-15 ATS in its last 18 home games after allowing 7 points or fewer in the first half of two consecutive games.  The underdog is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on James Madison +7.5

There have been few spots I can recall that have been as bad as this one for Appalachian State.  I faded them with success with Troy as double-digit underdogs last week because they were in such a bad spot.  And after they beat Troy on a hail mary in a game they should have lost, this is now an even worse spot.

In Week 1 Appalachian State lost a 63-61 shootout to North Carolina.  They pulled the shocking 17-14 upset at Texas A&M in Week 2.  Texas A&M is clearly down this season, though.  And last week they got that hail mary on the final play of the game on the tip drill that was completely bogus.  They are feeling fat and happy right now, but also fatigued given that all three games went to the wire decided by 4 points or less.

You know who is not fatigued? James Madison.  The Dukes are coming off a bye week after winning each of their first two games in blowout fashion.  They won 44-7 over Middle Tennessee State as 4.5-point favorites in the opener, covering by 32.5 points.  They outgained the Blue Raiders by 429 yards.  That win looks even better now after Middle Tennessee went on to cover their next two games by a combined 52.5 points.  The Dukes also beat Norfolk State 63-7 as 41.5-point favorites in Week 2 and covered by 14.5 points.

I think the betting markets are low on James Madison because it's their first season as an FBS school.  But remember, James Madison went 12-2 last season and has made the FCS playoffs eight consecutive seasons, including the championship game three times.  They have been the second-best team in the FCS behind North Dakota State.  Curt Cignetti is in his fourth season here and has continued the winning tradition.

I think the Dukes are already among the best teams in the Sun Belt, which is saying a lot because this is perhaps the most underrated conference in the country.  They will show it this week in what is a great spot for them and a terrible one for Appalachian State.  College Gameday was at Appalachian State last week as well, which only adds to the letdown spot for the Mountaineers.  The Mountaineers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.  Bet James Madison Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Early ANNIHILATOR on Kansas -7

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

In Week 2 Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against both Pitt and Virginia Tech this season.  In Week 3, they upset a Houston 48-30 as 8.5-point road underdogs.  That's a Houston team that went 12-2 last season.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 53.0 points per game, 454.0 yards per game and 7.7 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 379 yards per game and 5.3 yards per play, outgaining them by 2.4 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 260 rushing yards per game and 7.4 per carry.  They are also completing 67.6% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

No question Duke is improved this season, too, but I question their level of competition to this point.  The Blue Devils are 3-0 against Temple, Northwestern and North Carolina A&T.  Temple is one of the worst teams in FBS, Northwestern may be the worst team in the Big Ten after losing to Southern Illinois last week, and NC A&T is one of the worst teams in FCS.  Duke went 3-9 last year, was outscored by 17.0 points per game and outgained by 99 yards per game.

Kansas has faced the much tougher schedule with road games at WVU and Houston already.  Simply put, oddsmakers and the betting public haven't caught up to how good this Kansas team is, and we'll keep taking advantage. Fans are now excited about this team, and they should have the best home-field advantage they have had in years.  

The Jayhawks are 6-0 ATS their last six games overall and covering the spread by an average of 21 points per game.  Duke is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games with a total of 63 or higher and losing by 37.0 points per game in this spot.  The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record and losing by 34.1 points per game.  These three trends combine for a 20-0 system backing the Jayhawks.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kent State +45

Washington and Oklahoma look like two of the best teams in the country.  Well, Kent State only lost by 25 to Washington and by 30 to Oklahoma.  Now they are catching 45 points against another one of the best teams in Georgia.  I think they can cover this number against a Georgia team that won't be that interested in this game.

This is a sandwich spot for Georgia, coming off a win over South Carolina in their SEC opener and having another SEC game on deck against Missouri.  We saw them fail to cover in a similar situation already once this season.  After beating Oregon in their opener, and having their SEC opener on deck against South Carolina, they only beat lowly Samford 33-0 as 53.5-point favorites.

Kent State flexed their muscle with a 63-10 win over Long Island last week.  That was essentially a bye as their starters got to rest in the second half.  That's big because the Golden Flashes won't run out of gas in the second half even if they are getting beat up a little.  They should keep coming and fight for us to cover this inflated number.  I doubt Georgia even scores 45 points in this one.  

Kent State did move the ball on Oklahoma and Washington, averaging 318 yards per game and 4.5 per play against them.  Head coach Sean Lewis is a great offensive mind.  The Golden Flashes averaged 49.8 points per game two seasons ago and 33.0 points per game last year.  While the offense won't be as good, this does appear to be the best defense Lewis has had in his five seasons here.  New defensive coordinator Jeremiah Johnson has made an impact after spending the past eight seasons at Northern Iowa, including finishing as a Top 15 FCS defense each of the last three years.

Kirby Smart is 1-11 ATS in home games after a cover as a double-digit favorite as the coach of Georgia.  Roll with Kent State Saturday.

20* Virginia/Syracuse ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 53

The Virginia Cavaliers scored 34.6 points per game last season and averaged 514 yards per game.  They brought back all of their top playmakers at receiver and QB Brennan Armstrong, who threw for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns last season, while also rushing for nine scores.

The Cavaliers have had no problem moving the football again this season, but they have committed eight turnovers in two games, and they haven't scored as many points as they should have as a result.  They are scoring just 18.3 points per game.  They had 505 total yards against Richmond and 515 total yards against Old Dominion while being held in check by a good Illinois defense.

But the lack of points along with three consecutive UNDERS for Virginia to start the season has provided some value with the OVER this week.  This total should be much higher than 53.  It's only a matter of time before this offense starts turning those yards into points, and this Virginia defense isn't very good after allowing 31.8 points and 466 yards per game last season.

Syracuse has one of the most improved offenses in the country.  They brought in Virginia offensive coordinator Robert Anae and he is getting the most out of this Syracuse offense.  The Orange are averaging 37.0 points per game and 5.9 yards per play despite playing a tough schedule that has included Louisville and Purdue.

Garrett Shrader is one of the most improved quarterbacks in the country under Anae's watch.  He is completing 66.2% of his passes for 705 yards with an 8-to-0 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 202 yards and three scores.  Sean Tucker rushed for 1,496 yards and 12 TD last season and is one of the best backs in the country.

Armstrong should have a field day throwing the football against this Syracuse defense that was just torched for 424 passing yards by Purdue last week.  I also expect Shrader to put up points at will on this Virginia defense, and for Armstrong to keep pace.  It will be perfect conditions inside the Carrier Dome for a track meet Friday night, too.

Plays on the OVER on all teams where the total is 49.5 to 56 (Virgina) - in a game involving two good offensive teams that average 390 to 440 yards per game, after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game are 27-6 (81.8%) over the last five seasons.  The OVER is 13-5 in Cavaliers last 18 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with the OVER in this game Friday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina/Georgia State OVER 61.5

Coastal Carolina is loaded on offense again this season.  They scored 37.2 points per game in 2020 and followed it up with 40.9 points per game in 2021.  The constant?  That would be QB Grayson McCall, who is back again this season to lead the Chanticleers on offense.

McCall has led this Chanticleers offense to 35.7 points per game and 6.8 yards per play this season.  He is completing 70.4% of his passes for 733 yards with a 9-to-1 TD/INT ratio through three games, while also rushing for 53 yards and a score.

The problem for the Chanticleers this season is that their defense only returned three starters and lost seven of their top eight tacklers.  There are holes in their defense as they have given up 27.0 points per game.  And that has come against three poor offensive teams in Army, Gardner-Webb and Buffalo.  Both Army and Buffalo like to slow the game down, too, or the numbers would be worse on defense and better for Coastal Carolina on offense to this point.

Georgia State is loaded on offense again this season.  The Panthers returned eight starters from a unit that put up 28.2 points per game last season, including QB Darren Granger.  The Panthers are averaging 27.7 points per game against a brutal schedule of South Carolina, North Carolina and Charlotte.  That's why they are 0-3.

The Panthers have been gashed defensively, allowing 37.3 points per game and 6.3 yards per play.  They just gave up 42 points and 501 yards to Charlotte last week.  Now on a short week, their defense is probably still tired, which can also be said for Coastal Carolina after a hard-fought battle with Buffalo.  Look for the offenses to have the advantage on this short week.

These teams played in an absolute shootout last year with Georgia State winning 42-40 for 82 combined points.  Coastal Carolina clearly has their defense figured out, also scoring 51 points against the Panthers in 2020 two years ago.  These teams should have no problem topping 62 combined points in the rematch.

The OVER is 6-0 in Coastal Carolina's last six games following a game where they forced 3 or more turnovers.  The OVER is 18-5 in Chanticleers last 23 September games.  The OVER is 4-1 in Panthers last five Thursday games.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

20* WVU/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia ML -125

The West Virginia Mountaineers could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2.  As a result of their poor record, they are grossly undervalued heading into this game with Virginia Tech.  We'll take advantage and 'buy low' on the Mountaineers as they are clearly better than the Hokies this season.

West Virginia lost 31-38 at Pitt in the opener in a game they should have won.  But they threw a fluky pick-six with the game tied late in the 4th quarter that bounced off a wide open receivers' hands and into a Pitt defender, who returned it for a TD for the difference.  They also outgained Kansas by 81 yards but lost in OT.  

Pitt went on to take Tennessee to OT, which is an impressive result.  Kansas went on to upset Houston, which is an impressive result.  So the level of competitive WVU has faced thus far has been very tough, and they should be 3-0.  USC transfer QB JT Daniels has injected life into this WVU offense.

Daniels is completing 64.4% of his passes for 743 yards with a 6-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  He is leading a WVU offense that is averaging 46.0 points, 509.7 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play this season.  The defense has been solid as well, holding opponents to 328 yards per game and 5.4 yards per play this season.

Virginia Tech has been favored in every game this season and has played a very soft schedule.  The wins have come against Wofford and Boston College.  They failed to cover in a 20-point win over Wofford as 39-point favorites.  They beat a Boston College team that is way worse than most expected coming into the season.  And most concerning, they were upset by Old Dominion in the opener.

While West Virginia is a team on the rise in the Big 12 and with chemistry under fourth-year head coach Neal Brown, Virginia Tech is a team in rebuilding mode under first-year head coach Brent Pry.  They returned just 11 starters this season.  While the Hokies have a solid defense, their offense is pitiful as they returned only four starters on that side of the ball.  They are averaging just 23.7 points, 366.3 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play this season despite playing such a soft schedule.

The Hokies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games following a win.  Virginia Tech is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  The Mountaineers are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Take West Virginia Thursday.

20* Fresno State/USC FOX Late-Night BAILOUT on Fresno State +12.5

Jeff Tedford is back in the Valley after guiding the Fresno State Bulldogs to a Mountain West title in 2018 while going 12-2.  He inherits a very talented team, which made his decision to come back easy.  The Bulldogs have 15 starters back this year, including star QB Jake Haener, who is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.

Haener is coming off a season in which he completed 67.1% of his passes for 4,096 yards with a 33-to-9 TD/INT ratio in which he led the Bulldogs to a 10-3 season.  Two of the losses were by one score with a 24-31 loss at Oregon as 20-point dogs and a 24-27 loss at Hawaii.  They also upset another Pac-12 team in UCLA as 11-point road dogs.  So they have proven they can play with the big boys of the Pac-12.

They proved it again last week in a 32-35 loss to Oregon State.  They deserved to win that game as they racked up 492 total yards and outgained the Beavers by 94 yards.  That's an Oregon State team that is coming off a bowl season last year and is loaded again this year.  Oregon State crushed Boise State in the opener as well, so it was an impressive loss.

The Bulldogs will have no problem getting back up off the mat this week to face USC.  Haener is pissed his wasn't recruited by USC and will take it out on them.  USC is getting a lot of love after opening 2-0 SU & and 2-0 ATS with blowout wins over overmatched opponents in Rice and Stanford.

Both games were closer than the final scores.  USC is +8 in turnover differential through two games.  The Trojans had three interceptions returned for touchdowns against Rice.  Their 41-28 win over Stanford was much closer than that as Stanford turned it over four times.  Fresno State is better than Stanford with a lot more team speed.  They can match the Trojans score for score on offense and keep up with their athletes at WR defensively.  Stanford and Rice could not match their foot speed.

Fresno State is now 6-1 ATS in its last seven games vs. Pac-12 opponents.  The Bulldogs are 22-8-1 ATS in their last 31 road games.  Fresno State is 20-8-1 ATS in its last 29 games following a loss.  Plays on any team (Fresno State) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season are 71-28 (71.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Fresno State Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Maryland -2.5

The Maryland Terrapins are a team on the rise in the Big Ten.  They finally made a bowl game for the first time since 2016 last year and crushed Virginia Tech 54-10 to improve to 7-6 on the season.  Now they enter Year 4 under Mike Locksley, have some chemistry finally, and have his best team yet with 16 returning starters.

The offense is loaded with nine returning starters and that has been on display in the first few games this season.  The Terrapins have averaged 43.5 points and 532.5 yards per game in crushing both Buffalo and Charlotte.  Junior QB Taulia Tagovailoa is completing 78.5% of his passes for 681 yards with four touchdowns and only two interceptions while averaging 10 yards per attempt.  He is one of the best QB's in the country, and he has one of the most talented WR's corps in the country in Jarrett, Jones and Copeland who have combined for 24 receptions, 387 yards and four touchdowns.

SMU has also blown out a pair of overmatched opponents in North Texas 48-10 and Lamar 45-16.  They are playing under a first-year head coach in Rhett Lashlee, so they were fortunate to get a few cupcakes to start.  I don't expect them to handle this huge step up in class well.  It will be a hostile atmosphere as this will be a night game in College Park at 7:30 EST Saturday night.  Fans are more excited about the Terrapins than they have been in a long time, so it should be a great atmosphere.

I'm shocked oddsmakers are calling these even teams or saying SMU would be favored on a neutral even when you factor in home-field advantage.  Maryland should be closer to a 7-point favorite at home in this matchup.  SMU is 19-34 ATS in its last 53 games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Mustangs are 15-29 ATS in their last 44 road games after scoring 37 points or more in their previous game.  SMU is 12-25 ATS in its last 37 road games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Mustangs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.

Plays on home favorites (Maryland) - in a game involving two dominant teams that have outgained their opponents by 1.2 yards per play or more, after gaining 7.25 or more yards per play in two consecutive games are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Maryland Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Toledo +32

Ohio State has not been impressive at all this season.  I successfully faded them with Notre Dame +17 in the opener in their sloppy 21-10 victory.  That win looks even worse now after Notre Dame was just upset by Marshall last week.

I wish I would have faded the Buckeyes again last week as they failed to cover as 44.5-point favorites in a 45-12 win over Arkansas State.  I won't make that same mistake here and I'll back Toledo catching 32 points against the Buckeyes.  This is a flat spot for Ohio State with the Big Ten opener against Wisconsin on deck next week.  I think they just want to get out of here with a win and won't be worried about getting margin.

I don't think they can get margin on this Toledo team even if they tried.  This is an underrated, loaded Toledo team that returned 15 starters this season.  Toledo went 7-6 last year with five losses by 7 points or fewer.  That's how close they were to being 12-1.  That included a 3-point loss at Notre Dame as 17-point underdogs.

The Rockets are consistently one of the best teams in the MAC and I believe they are the top team this season, and it's not really even close.  They have handled their business in winning their first two games in blowout fashion while outscoring a pair of overmatched opponents 92-10.  This team will relish the opportunity to face a Big Ten team in Ohio State in their home state.  This is essentially their National Championship game.  

We saw how they handled this type of game last year with a 3-point loss at Notre Dame.  The Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  The Buckeyes are 1-6 ATS in their last seven non-conference games.  Ohio State is once again getting too much respect from oddsmakers this week due to that No. 3 National ranking.    They will get more of a fight from Toledo than they bargained for this week.  Roll with Toledo Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Kansas +9

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

Last week Kansas proved they were legit by upsetting a good West Virginia team 55-42 (OT) on the road as 14-point underdogs.  That's a very tough place to play, and West Virginia looked very good against Pitt in their opener.  I think the Jayhawks will give the Houston Cougars a run for their money and likely improve to 3-0 with another upset in Week 3.

Kansas is hitting on all cylinders on offense with 55.5 points per game, 461.0 yards per game and 8.2 yards per play.  They are also holding opponents to 345.5 yards per game and 4.7 yards per play.  Leipold loves to run the football dating back to his time at Buffalo, and the Jayhawks are doing just that averaging 249 rushing yards per game and 7.7 per carry.  They are also completing 70.8% of their passes and efficient in the passing game.

Houston came into the season as one of the most overrated teams in the country after going 12-2 last year.  They were extremely fortunate to have that record as they went 4-0 in one score games.  They lost by 15 to Cincinnati and by 17 to Texas Tech, the two best teams they faced.  I have not been impressed at all with Houston as they have lost the stats in each of their first two games and should be 0-2.

Houston managed just 346 total yards and was outgained by 95 yards by UTSA in a 37-35 (OT) victory in their opener as 3.5-point favorites.  Their luck ran out last week as they lost 30-33 (OT) to Texas Tech as 3.5-point underdogs, getting outgained by 115 yards and managing just 355 total yards of offense.  

Those are two bad defensive teams in Texas Tech and UTSA, so averaging just 350.5 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play against them is terrible.  QB Clayton Tune isn't as good as he gets credit for, and they are only rushing for 3.2 yards per carry.  Now the Cougars are gassed after playing two straight OT games and won't have much left in the tank for Kansas this week.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Kansas) - a bad team from last season that was outscored by 17 or more points per game are 36-12 (75%) ATS since 1992.  The Jayhawks are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  The Cougars are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win.  Take Kansas Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on UL-Monroe +49.5

This is a terrible spot for the Alabama Crimson Tide.  They are coming off a 20-19 win at Texas last week in what was the biggest game in college football.  Now they have their SEC opener on deck next week.  That makes this a sandwich spot for the Crimson Tide.  Nick Saban is the king of just trying to get through these games and taking the air out of the ball in the second half.  He isn't going to be trying to beat UL-Monroe by 50-plus, which is what it's going to take to cover this massive spread.

We have a good data point here with UL-Monroe losing 52-10 to Texas in the opener, or by 42 points.  Texas obviously took Alabama to the wire and would have won if their starting QB didn't get hurt, and had a few calls not gone Alabama's way.  It's worth noting Texas was fortunate to score 52 points as LA-Monroe actually held them to just 383 total yards.

Monroe came back last week and beat a very good FCS opponent in Nicholls State 35-7 as 4.5-point favorites, covering by 23.5 points.  They racked up 434 yards on Nicholls State and outgained them by 124 total yards.  They were only outgained by 124 yards by Texas, so it's pretty impressive they are even in the yardage battle on the season despite playing a team the caliber of Texas.

Of course, we saw last year what the Warhawks were capable of.  They pulled off three huge upsets over Troy 29-16 as 23-point dogs, over Liberty 31-28 as 33-point dogs and over South Alabama 41-31 as 13-point dogs.  They also took Sun Belt champ Louisiana to the wire in a 16-21 loss as 21-point dogs, and only lost 14-27 at LSU as 29-point dogs, a fellow SEC team with Alabama.

Now the Warhawks are in the second year in Terry Bowden's systems and he is doing a good job of recruiting here and trying to turn this program around.  Eight starters are back on offense, and the defense has played very well thus far.  QB Chandler Rogers got his feet wet as a freshman last year with a 9-to-3 TD/INT ratio and 367 rushing yards in six starts.  

He has been superb thus far, completing 77.3% of his passes and averaging 8 yards per attempt in two starts in 2022, while also rushing for 63 yards and a score as a dual threat.  This guy can help the Warhawks move the ball and extend drives and burn clock against this Alabama defense.  And like I said, Alabama isn't going to run up the score as Saban has respect for Bowden.

UL-Monroe is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU win by more than 20 points.  Alabama is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. Sun Belt opponents.  The Sun Belt rolled last week, going 11-3 ATS which included upsets by Appalachian State over Texas A&M, Marshall over Notre Dame, Georgia Southern over Nebraska and South Alabama over Central Michigan.  This is likely the most underrated conference in the country.  Roll with Louisiana-Monroe Saturday.

15* Troy/Appalachian State Sun Belt ANNIHILATOR on Troy +12.5

This is the ultimate letdown spot for the Appalachian State Mountaineers.  They followed up their thrilling 63-61 loss to North Carolina in the opener with a 17-14 upset of Texas A&M as 18-point road underdogs last week.  They are feeling fat and happy after beating an SEC team, and they now overvalued as a result, which is a double whammy.  They also won't have much left in the tank for Troy after both games went to the wire.

Troy is no pushover.  I expect the Trojans to be one of the most improved teams in the Sun Belt this season with 18 starters back from a team that went 5-7 last year.  Only two of the losses were by more than two scores.

Troy covered the 21.5-point spread at Ole Miss in the opener in a 10-28 road loss.  They came back last week with a 38-17 win over Alabama A&M.  That was a 31-3 game before they called off the dogs.  QB Gunnar Watson is completing 70.4% of his passes for 626 yards with a 5-to-3 TD/INT ratio through two games and the offense is vastly improved.

Of course, the defense is what gets me the most excited about Troy.  They allowed just 337 total yards per game last season and brought back nine starters and eight of their top nine tacklers from that unit.  Holding Ole Miss to just 28 points is no small feat and shows what they are capable of.  I think they can hang with Appalachian State in a defensive battle this week, and I also kind of like the UNDER as a result, but decided to go with Troy instead due to the terrible spot for the Mountaineers.  Take Troy Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on New Mexico State/Wisconsin UNDER 46

Jerry Kill is a first-year head coach at New Mexico State.  He has always been a conservative head coach focusing on defense and ball control, and that is clearly is MO here at New Mexico State thus far.  Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  

Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They managed just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

New Mexico State proceeded to get shut out 38-0 by Minnesota in their second game.  The Aggies only managed 81 total yards against the Golden Gophers.  Last week they played a bad UTEP team and lost 13-20 as the offense was held in check once again, but the defense showed what it was capable of in limiting the Miners to 307 total yards.

The Badgers led the nation last year in holding their opponents to 150 yards per game below their season average and finished allowing 16.2 points per game and 239 yards per game.  They have now held their opponents to 17.4 points per game and 301 yards per game or fewer in six of the past seven seasons.  They are elite defensively once again in 2022.

After shutting out Illinois State 38-0 in the opener, the Badgers held the Washington State Cougars to just 17 points and 253 total yards last week.  But once again this season, the offense looks like a problem.  They were held to 14 points and committed three turnovers to get upset by the Cougars.  Wisconsin has only averaged 25.4 points per game and 25.1 points per game the past two seasons, respectively.  QB Graham Mertz is a massive disappointment.

For this game to go over the total, Wisconsin is going to have to do it all on their own.  They are 37-point favorites.  I expect them to shut out New Mexico State, and to not top 40 points themselves.  This is going to be very similar to Minnesota's 38-0 win over New Mexico State two weeks ago and stay UNDER the 46-point total.

The UNDER is 5-1 in Aggies last six non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Badgers last four games overall.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Badgers last four non-conference games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Badgers last seven games following a loss.  Paul Christ is 11-3 UNDER off an upset loss as a favorite as the coach of Wisconsin.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (Wisconsin) - an excellent defensive team from last season that allowed 285 or fewer yards per game, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first month of the season are 29-6 (82.9%) since 1992.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Oklahoma/Nebraska FOX Early ANNIHILATOR on Nebraska +11

I love the spot for the Nebraska Cornhuskers.  Players and coaches alike finally can stop answering questions about Scott Frost and their poor play under him.  He has been fired, and the Huskers will have a breath of fresh air.  Look for them to get a one game boost at least and to finally play up to their potential and give Oklahoma a run for its money.

Of course, Nebraska should have beaten Oklahoma last year, which was yet another close loss for them.  They lost 23-16 as 22.5-point road underdogs.  They were only outgained by 24 yards by the Sooners.  It's tough to beat Nebraska by margin.  They went 3-9 last year, but all nine losses came by 9 points or less.  In fact, Nebraska hasn't lost any of its last 19 games by more than 9 points, making for a 19-0 system backing the Huskers pertaining to this 11-point spread.

Oklahoma is learning new systems under Brent Venables in their first year with the team.  Lincoln Riley took a lot of talent with him from Oklahoma.  The Sooners only brought back 10 starters this season.  They were fortunate to get a couple cupcakes to open the season in UTEP and Kent State, which they beat 45-13 and 33-3, respectively.  

This is a big step up in class for them and their first road game in a hostile atmosphere as Nebraska fans will be excited with a new head coach and the Sooners coming to town.  Nebraska has already been tested having to play Northwestern and an improved Georgia Southern team.  I think that loss to Southern last week has the Huskers undervalued this week.  Keep in mind this line was only Oklahoma -5 in the offseason, so we are getting at least 6 points of value.

Nebraska is 22-7 ATS in its last 29 games vs. Big 12 opponents.  The Huskers are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 home games after a game where both teams scored 31 points or more.  The Sooners are 24-47 ATS in their last 71 games after allowing 17 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Oklahoma is 0-6 ATS in its last six games following a SU win by more than 20 points.

Plays on any team (Nebraska) - off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Roll with Nebraska Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Oklahoma/Nebraska UNDER 66.5

These teams are familiar with one another after playing last year with Oklahoma winning 23-16 for just 39 combined points.  They are different teams this year, but the familiarity will favor the defense.  So will the forecast, which is calling for possible storms in the morning and 20 MPH winds.  This game will likely be played mostly on the ground as a result, which will keep the clock moving.

Oklahoma has changed philosophy this season under first-year head coach Will Venables.  The former Clemson defensive coordinator is already putting his imprint on this Oklahoma defense.  They have held UTEP and Kent State to just 8.0 points per game and 3.9 yards per play through two games.

At the same time, Lincoln Riley and his high-octane offense are gone.  He took many of his best players with him on offense to USC.  The Sooners have been a little more conservative on offense this season, averaging only 461.0 yards per game against two poor defenses in UTEP and Kent State.  They are going to be an UNDER team this season because oddsmakers keep setting their totals too high due to their past reputation.

Nebraska has faced three straight poor defenses in Northwestern, North Dakota and Georgia Southern.  They will finally meet some resistance on offense from this Oklahoma defense, which held them to 16 points and 384 total yards last year and is even better this year.  I think Nebraska's defense will play its best game as well now with Scott Frost gone.  They are a lot more talented on this side of the ball than they have shown this season.  They only gave up 22.7 points per game last season.

Plays on the UNDER on all teams where the total is 63 or higher (Nebraska) - with a bad defense that allos 450 or more yards per game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards per play in two consecutive games are 26-5 (83.9%) over the last five seasons.  The UNDER is 9-3 in Huskers last 12 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five meetings.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Florida State/Louisville ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 56.5

Mike Norvell and Florida State have struggled with dual-threat quarterbacks in his three seasons here.  They have really struggled defending Louisville's Malik Cunningham.  Louisville won 48-16 two years ago and 31-23 last year.

Cunningham went 16-of-24 for 278 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 40 yards on seven carries against Florida State in 2020.  Last year, Cunningham went 25-of-39 for 264 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 56 yards on 14 attempts and two scores.  It will be more of the same here as this Louisville offense will do whatever they want on this FSU defense.

Conversely, Florida State is vastly improved on offense this season as they are familiar with Norvell's system now in Year 3.  The Seminoles brought back eight starters on offense, includinG QB Jordan Travis is is coming into his own in his junior season.  He has five of his top six receivers back from last year and four starters back along the offensive line.  

Travis did not face Louisville last year, so he will have the element of surprise.  It was McKenzie Milton, who was replaced by Travis due to his ineffectiveness.  This Louisville defense gave up 31 points and 449 total yards to a suspect Syracuse offense in the opener.  Travis and company can do the same.

The OVER is 6-2 in the last eight meetings with combined scores of 59 or more points in six of the eight meetings.  The OVER is 11-1 in Cardinals last 12 games after allowing less than 170 passing yards in their previous game.  Bet the OVER in this game Friday.

20* Mississippi State/Arizona FS1 Late-Night BAILOUT on Arizona +11

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They add in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback and I think this is going to be the single most improved team in the country.

I backed Arizona last week as 6.5-point underdogs at San Diego State.  That was a no sweat winner as Arizona rolled to a 38-20 victory, gaining 461 total yards and holding the Aztecs to 232 yards, outgaining them by 229 yards.  De Laura lived up to the hype, throwing for 299 yards and four touchdowns with one pick in the win.

Fans are excited about this team finally, and it's going to be a raucous atmosphere in Tucson Saturday night with an 11:00 PM EST kick.  That's a very late start for a Mississippi State team that is in the Eastern time zone and won't be used to it.  I like this Mississippi State team, but they should not be laying double-digits on the road to the Wildcats in Week 2.  The Bulldogs beat a Memphis team last week that is way down this year and is getting too much respect for that blowout home victory.  Take Arizona Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico State/UTEP UNDER 47

Jerry Kill is a first-year head coach at New Mexico State.  He has always been a conservative head coach focusing on defense and ball control, and that is clearly is MO here at New Mexico State thus far.  Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  

Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They managed just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

New Mexico State proceeded to get shut out 38-0 by Minnesota in Week 2.  The Aggies only managed 81 total yards against the Golden Gophers.  It will be tough sledding again this week against a UTEP defense that only allowed 25.2 points per game last season and brought back eight starters from that defense.

UTEP's defensive numbers are inflated this season because they have played two great offenses in North Texas and Oklahoma.  Don't be surprised to see them hold this awful Aggies offense to 14 points or fewer this week as this is a big step down in class.  I also expect UTEP to score more than the 13.0 points per game they are averaging through two games, but not enough to get this final score over the 47-point total.  They are a run-based team that lost their star receiver last year in Jacob Cowing, who had 1,354 yards and seven touchdowns.

UTEP beat New Mexico State 30-3 last year for just 33 combined points, so there is familiarity with these teams which also favors the UNDER.  Roll with the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -11

The Oklahoma State Cowboys went 12-2 last year and should have won the Big 12 title.  But they got stopped on the goal line in four tries by Baylor in the title game.  They rebounded to beat Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl, and now they come back highly motivated to win the Big 12 in 2022.

Mike Gundy made a point of speeding up the offense to get this unit back to where it has been in years past.  That was on display in the opener as the Cowboys ran a play every 19 seconds, running 73 plays in 23:52 for 531 yards and 7.3 yards per play in their 58-44 win over Central Michigan in the opener.

That game was a much bigger blowout than the final score would indicate, and I think that misleading result is providing us with some line value this week, because Oklahoma State failed to cover the 20.5-point spread.  The Cowboys led 51-15 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs.  Central Michigan scored most of their points against the Cowboys' backups.

Conversely, I think Arizona State is getting too much respect this week after covering as 25.5-point favorites in a 40-3 win over Northern Arizona last week.  But make no mistake about it, the Sun Devils look like one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country this season, and that will show as the season goes on.

Herm Edwards is squarely on the hot seat entering his 5th season in Tempe.  He has just seven starters back as this is one of the most inexperienced teams in the country.  He lost a ton of players to the transfer portal, including QB Jayden Daniels.  Each of the top four receivers and each of the top three rushers are gone.  Seven of the top nine tacklers are gone on defense.

The atmosphere will be great for this Saturday night game in Stillwater.  The Cowboys are going to keep that fast-paced offense going and run Arizona State off the field.  The conservative Sun Devils won't be able to play catch up like Central Michigan did, and I don't expect the Cowboys to call off the dogs so early after what happened last week.  Oklahoma State is 19-6-1 ATS in its last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cowboys are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  Roll with Oklahoma State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Connecticut +23.5

The UConn Huskies are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2022.  I love the Jim Mora hire.  He joined the staff for the final four games last year so he could recruit for this season.  He retained his DC in Lou Spanos, who held the same position under Mora at UCLA and was at UConn the last three years.

The Huskies welcome back 15 starters and 54 lettermen.  They return each of their top six tacklers on defense.  The Huskies had five games decided by 14 points or less last year and should be more competitive this season.  That has proven to be the case thus far as they are 2-0 ATS and undervalued.

Connecticut jumped out to a 14-0 lead on Utah State in the opener and eventually lost 31-20, covering easily as 23.5-point underdogs.  I had them at +28 in that game as a lot of money came in on them.  UConn went on to cover as 20.5-point favorites in a 28-3 win over Central Connecticut State last week.  Now this will be their third game because they were one of the few teams to play in Week 0, which is an advantage for them.

Syracuse is getting too much respect for its 31-7 upset win over Louisville as 5-point underdogs last week.  Louisville gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.  This is a Syracuse team that went 5-7 last year with its only blowout win by this kind of margin coming against FCS Albany.  While they may be improved, they should not be 23.5-point favorites here.  This is now a sandwich game and a bad spot for them coming off a conference win against Louisville, and with Purdue on deck next week.

Syracuse is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following a blowout upset win by 21 points or more as an underdog, and 2-14 ATS in its last 16 games following an upset win by 14 points or more as an underdog.  Dino Babers is 0-8 ATS after allowing 9 points or fewer last game as the coach of Syracuse.  Bet Connecticut Saturday.

15* Big 12 PLAY OF THE DAY on Kansas +13.5

Lance Leipold is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  He led Buffalo to two trips to the MAC title game in his six seasons there and turned around that program.  He will do the same at Kansas, and he is already off to a good start despite not getting hired until after spring practice last year.

The Jayhawks improved rapidly as the season went on last season, including an upset as 31-point underdogs at Texas to end their 56-game road losing streak in Big 12 play.  They were the first team to shut out Oklahoma in the first half in five years under Lincoln Riley and nearly pulled off that upset.  They also took TCU to the wire in a 3-point road loss as 21-point dogs and West Virginia to the wire in a 6-point home loss as 15-point dogs in their final two games of the season.

Now Leipold has 17 starters back in 2022 and these players are familiar with his systems in Year 2.  The Jayhawks are off to a great start beating Tennessee Tech 56-10 and covering as 32-point favorites despite losing the turnover battle 3-1.  They held Tennessee Tech to just 190 total yards and 2.8 yards per play.

I am high on West Virginia compared to the market, and I cashed them as 7.5-point underdogs in their opener in a 7-point loss to Pittsburgh.  But they were in control of that game and let it slip away after a wide open receiver dropped an easy catch, and it was intercepted returned for a TD in the final minutes.  

That was a deflating loss in the Backyard Brawl rivalry, and I think it's the type of loss that can beat a team like WVU twice.  Don't be surprised if Kansas pulls this upset after only losing by 6 to WVU last year.  This is a hangover spot for the Mountaineers and the Jayhawks are live underdogs this week, and I expect them to be live underdogs a lot this season.  Take Kansas Saturday.

15* Virginia/Illinois Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Illinois -3.5

Illinois improved last season down the stretch in going 4-3 in their final seven games including upsets over Penn State and Minnesota as 24 and 14-point underdogs, respectively.  It's year 2 under Bret Bielema and he has 13 starters back plus Syracuse transfer Tommy DeVito at quarterback.

I've been impressed with Illinois in their first two games this season.  They crushed Wyoming 38-6 in the opener while outgaining them by 265 yards.  That's a Wyoming team that came back last week and upset Tulsa.  They should have beaten Indiana, outgaining them by 86 yards but blowing it late in the 4th quarter.  I think that loss has them a little undervalued coming into this week.  Illinois should be at least a 7-point favorite over Virginia.

Virginia is in rebuilding mode after losing head coach Bronco Mendenhall in the offseason.  They also bring back just 10 starters for first-year head coach Tony Elliott.  They do have stud QB Brennan Armstrong back, but he has a lot on his shoulders.  Virginia is breaking in five new starters along the offensive line, and I love fading teams that are bad in the trenches.

While these teams are pretty evenly matched on offense, Illinois is going to have a huge advantage on defense.  Virginia gave up 31.8 points and 466 yards per game last year. They gave up 226 rushing yards per game and 5.8 per carry.  Illinois is going to be able to run the ball at will on this Virginia defense.

The Cavaliers gave up 170 rushing yards and nearly 5.0 yards per carry in their 34-17 win over Richmond last week.  Illinois is only allowing 14.5 points, 287 yards per game and 4.4 yards per play through two games.  Illinois will win the battle in the trenches on both sides of the football and win this Big 10 vs. ACC matchup with plenty of room to spare.  Bet Illinois Saturday.

15* UNLV/Cal Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on UNLV +13

The UNLV Rebels are one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into the season.  Marcus Arroyo is in Year 3 here, and that's when coaches usually make their biggest leaps.  UNLV pulled upsets over Hawaii and New Mexico in its final two games last year.  They also lost in double-OT to Eastern Washington, by 7 to UTSA as 21-point dogs, by 4 to Utah State as 7-point dogs and by 8 to San Diego State as 10-point dogs.  Those last three teams were three of the best Group of 5 teams in the country.

Now Arroyo welcomes 12 starters back including QB Doug Brumfield, who showed out in the opener.  UNLV beat Idaho State 52-21 as 23-point underdogs.  They gained 554 yards of offense and outgained Idaho State by 313 yards.  Brumfield threw for 356 yards and four touchdowns without an interception in the win.

California is not a team you can trust to lay double-digit points.  Like clockwork, they have a terrible offense and a great defense every season under Justin Wilcox.  They have averaged 23.8 points per game or fewer in four consecutive seasons, while allowing 26.5 points per fewer each of the last four years.  Wilcox is on the hot seat entering Year 6, and he has one of the most inexperienced teams in the country with only eight starters back.

Cal did manage to cover in a 34-13 win over UC-Davis as 14-point favorites in the opener.  But that game against a FCS opponent was much closer than the final score would indicate.  California only outgained UC-Davis by 28 yards.  That misleading result now has California laying too many points against UNLV this week.

UNLV is 6-1 ATS in its last seven non-conference games.  California is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games following an ATS win.  The Golden Bears are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.  The Rebels are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following a win by 28 points or more.  Take UNLV Saturday.

15* Tennessee/Pitt ABC ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -5.5

Pittsburgh comes into the season with massive expectations after winning the ACC last season and going 11-3 overall.  Keep in mind the Panthers never won more than eight games in the previous six seasons under Pat Narduzzi, and they hadn't won more than eight games in over 10 years.  While the Panthers do have 15 starters back, they lose all of their best players.

QB Kenny Pickett (4,319 yards, 42 TD, 7 INT) was drafted in the first round by the Steelers.  Top receiver Jordan Addison (100 receptions, 1,593 yards, 17 TD) transferred to USC to play under Lincoln Riley.  The loss of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple is also massive as he was the architect of Pitt's record-setting offense.  They will have a completely new scheme under OC Frank Cignetti, who spent the past two years at Boston College.

I just think Pitt comes in overrated based on last year's results.  I successfully faded them in Week 1 as 7.5-point favorites against West Virginia.  While they won that game 38-31, they had no business winning it as West Virginia was in control until throwing a pick 6 off a wide open receivers hands in the final minutes.  West Virginia outgained them by 18 yards and Pitt's offense was held to just 384 total yards.  Pitt also suffered some key injuries in that game.  It was a big rivalry game in the Backyard Brawl, and they won't be nearly as motivated as they were to win that game on a standalone Thursday Night game.

Tennessee will be the more motivated team looking for revenge from a 41-34 home loss to Pitt last year.  The Vols gave that game away by losing the turnover battle 3-0.  While Pitt is on the decline, Tennessee is on the rise entering Year 2 under Josh Heupel.  The Volunteers welcome back 15 starters this season and are thriving in Heupel's system.

The Vols scored 45 or more points in four of their final five games last season.  QB Hendon Hooker is back along with eight starters on offense.  Hooker is one of the best quarterbacks in the country.  He completed 68% of his passes for 2,945 yards and a ridiculous 31-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season, while also rushing for 616 yards and five scores as a dual-threat.

The Vols are off and running again this season beating Ball State 59-10 as 37-point favorties in the opener.  Hooker went 18-of-25 for 221 yards and two touchdowns in the opener, while also rushing for two scores.  He got pulled early in the 2nd half with the game in hand.

Tennessee is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games as a road favorite of 7 points or less.  The Volunteers are favored for good reason on the road here as they are clearly the better team and that will show on the field.  Roll with Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Army +3

The Army Black Knights come back motivated after losing to a very good Coastal Carolina team 38-28 in Week 1.  Coastal Carolina was the team playing keep away as they ran 23 more plays than Army did.  Army's numbers were good as they averaged 7.3 yards per play on offense while giving up 6.2 yards per play on defensive, outgaining the Chanticleers by 1.1 yards per play.

Keep in mind Coastal Carolina had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option, which was a huge advantage.  Now UTSA only has one week to get ready for it and they won't be ready at all.  UTSA is also in a terrible spot.  They are coming off a triple-OT loss to Houston last week in which they blew a 21-7 lead in the 4th quarter.  I think there will be a hangover effect.  And this is a sandwich spot with an even bigger game against Texas on deck.

Army returned 14 starters this season, which is a ton for a service academy.  Army has now won at least 9 games in four of the past five seasons.  They are loaded again, and head coach Jeff Monken is doing a tremendous job with this program.

UTSA is getting a lot of respect after going 12-2 last season.  Amazingly, the Roadrunners went 6-0 in one-score games last year, so they were very fortunate in close games.  They returned 21 starters last season and now have just 13 starters back this season.  The defense is going to be a problem with just five starters back.

I think Army is going to be able to move it up and down the field on the Roadrunners and control the game with their offense.  They will wear down this UTSA defense as the game goes on, especially after having to play a triple-overtime game last week.  I expect Army to win outright, but we'll take the points for some added insurance.   Bet Army Saturday.

20* Louisville/UCF ESPN 2 No-Brainer on UCF -5.5

The UCF Knights are going to be one of the best Group of 5 teams in the country this season.  Gus Malzahn had a productive first season in Orlando last year in guiding the Knights to a 9-4 season despite suspect quarterback play.  Now Malzahn welcomes back 17 starters and some stud transfers, including QB John Rhys Plumlee from Ole Miss.

Plumlee showed out in the opener by throwing for 308 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 86 yards and another score to flaunt his dual-threat ability.  They beat South Carolina State 56-10 and covered the 43.5-point spread.  Now with a real quarterback and a veteran, loaded roster, the Knights are going to be tough to tame in 2022.

The Louisville Cardinals have been a massive disappointment under head coach Scott Satterfield.  After going 8-5 in his first season, the Cardinals have gone 4-7 and 6-7 the past two seasons, respectively.  Many thought they would be better this season, but that is clearly not the case.

Louisville was steamed up to a 5.5-point favorite at Syracuse in the opener.  They lost 31-7 and were outgained by 115 yards.  They gave up 449 yards to what was a terrible Syracuse offensive last season.  And their supposedly high-powered offense was only held to 334 total yards.  Malik Cunningham threw for only 152 yards and two interceptions in the defeat.

UCF wants revenge from a 42-35 loss at Louisville last season.  UCF was a 7-point favorite in that game, now they are only a 5.5-point favorite at home in the rematch.  And clearly the Knights are improved this season while the Cardinals are no better than they were last year, and maybe worse.

UCF has one of the best home-field advantages in the country in the Bounce House.  It's going to be even more of an advantage for this stand-alone Friday night game on National TV.  Fans are hyped about this team, and it will be a very tough atmosphere for Cunningham and Louisville to deal with.

Louisville is 11-28-1 ATS in its last 40 games vs. a team with a winning record.  The Cardinals are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 road games.  The Knights are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games after allowing 275 or fewer total yards in their previous game.  They held South Carolina State to 91 total yards and outgained them by 509 yards.  Bet UCF Friday.

15* Clemson/Georgia Tech ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Clemson -22

The Clemson Tigers are undervalued to open the season.  They had not lost more than two games in any season since 2014.  But they went 10-3 last year and didn't win the ACC.  It was a rare down season for Dabo Swinney and company, and his players will come back highly motivated in the offseason to right the ship.

Swinney returns a whopping 15 starters this season, which is rare for a Clemson team.  Usually they lost a ton of players to the NFL Draft, but that wasn't the case this offseason.  They defense remains loaded after allowing 14.8 points and 305 yards per game last season.

The key is the offense, which will be one of the most improved units in the country after averaging just 26.3 points and 359 yards per game last season.  To compare, they averaged 43.5 points per game or more in three consecutive seasons prior to 2021.  There are nine starters back on offense and the chemistry will be great from the jump.

Georgia Tech will be the worst team in the ACC this season.  Geoff Collins just hasn't been able to fill the massive shoes of Paul Johnson.  Collins enters his fourth seasons here and the Yellow Jackets have won exactly three games in each of his first three seasons.  It's amazing he even still has a job.

The Yellow Jackets only return eight starters this season after having 17 back last year.  This is a rebuilding year, especially after losing the final two games of last season by a combined score of 110-0.  It won't get any better to start the 2022 campaign as they face a hungry, juggernaut of a team in Clemson.

Sure, Georgia Tech played Clemson tough in a 14-8 loss as 27-point dogs last season.  But that was an aberration and Clemson is much stronger this year.  Keep in mind Clemson won by 66, 38 and 28 points in the three meetings prior, respectively.  The one-sided dominance of this series returns in the 2022 opener.

This game will be played at the Georgia Dome in Atlanta.  Clemson is 19-7 ATS in its last 26 neutral site games.  The Tigers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.  The Yellow Jackets are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall.  The Tigers are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet Clemson Monday.

15* FSU/LSU ABC Total DOMINATOR on OVER 50

I believe this will be a shootout tonight in the Superdome in New Orleans.  At the very least, these teams should combine to top this 50-point total.  I like the outlook of both of these offenses, and I have some questions about both the defenses.

Brian Kelly comes over to LSU and brings offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock with him from.  Denbrock spent the past five seasons as Cincinnati's offensive coordinator and was a great at getting the most out of Desmond Ridder's skill set.  Denbrock was an assistant under Kelly at Notre Dame from 2010 to 2016.

Jayden Daniels comes over from Arizona State to take over the quarterback position.  He was a dynamic dual-threat like Ridder at ASU, throwing for 6,025 yards and rushing for 1,288 more in his three seasons there.  He has arguably the most talented group of receivers in the country to get the ball to.  This is going to be an explosive LSU offense starting Week 1.

I do have questions surrounding LSU's defense that returns only five starters.  The defensive line will be fine, but there's a lot of inexperience in the back seven and they could be susceptible to some broken plays in the opener.  LSU allowed 34.9 points per game in 2020 and 26.6 points per game in 2021, so they haven't been nearly as dominant on this side of the ball in recent years.

The Florida State Seminoles enter Year 3 under Mike Norvell.  They should be hitting on all cylinders from the jump offensively.  Eight starters are back on offense including QB Jordan Travis, who made eight starters last year throwing for 1,539 yards and 15 touchdowns with six interceptions, while also rushing for 530 yards and seven scores.  He has five of his top six receivers back and add in talented Oregon transfer Mycah Pittman.  Four starters are back along the offensive line.

Florida State has also been vulnerable defensively in recent years.  They have allowed at least 26.5 points per game in four consecutive seasons.  While they may be improved on that side of the ball this season with eight starters back, I can't see them holding LSU's talent in check in the opener.

The OVER is 7-2 in Seminoles last nine neutral site games.  The OVER is 5-1 in Tigers last six neutral site games.  The OVER is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 September games.  Take the OVER in this game Sunday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Utah State +42

I have consistently faded Alabama in these non-conference games as massive favorites over the last handful of years.  It's rinse and repeat with Nick Saban.  Put it on the overmatched non-conference opponent in the first half, then call off the dogs in the second half, especially in the 4th quarter.  That makes it very hard for them to cover these massive spreads even against these overmatched teams.

Utah State is a much better team than many of the non-conference foes the Crimson Tide have faced int he past.  The Aggies won the Mountain West last season with an 11-3 record out of nowhere in Blake Anderson's first season.  I realize they got fortunate to win a ton of close games, but the feat was still pretty impressive, especially beating San Diego State 46-13 in the MWC Championship Game and Oregon State 24-13 outright as 7-point dogs in the bowl.

I did fade Utah State with success in the opener by backing UConn.  But that was more because UConn was underrated coming into the season.  Utah State won that game 31-20 and still outgained UConn 542 to 364.  But since they failed to cover the 23.5-point spread, the Aggies are getting a little extra value this week against Alabama.  It also helps that they have a game under their belt, and they were probably looking ahead to this game as well.  Alabama has Texas on deck so could definitely be looking ahead to that game in the second half.

The Aggies bring back star QB Logan Bonner.  He threw for 3,628 yards with a 36-to-12 TD/INT ratio last season and can keep them within this number for four quarters.  Bonner went 20-of-29 for 281 yards with three touchdowns and zero interceptions against UConn.  He has four starters and 102 career starts back on the offensive line and had a week to form some chemistry with all his new weapons.  Calvin Tyler, who rushed for 884 yards and seven scores last year, rushed for 161 yards against UConn.

The Aggies are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 September games.  Utah State is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.  Alabama is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 September games.  The Crimson Tide are 0-4 ATS in their last four vs. Mountain West opponents.  Bet Utah State Saturday.

20* Notre Dame/Ohio State ABC No-Brainer on Notre Dame +17

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish went 11-2 last season and were a blown 28-7 lead to Oklahoma State in the Fiesta Bowl away from 12-1.  That loss will have them motivated all offseason, especially after just missing out on the four-team playoff.  Brian Kelly did a great job here but left for LSU.

The cupboard isn't bare for new head coach Marcus Freeman.  He was the defensive coordinator for the Fighting Irish last season.  He welcomes back 15 starters and came through with a Top 5 recruiting class in 2022.  To compare, Ohio State only had the 11th-best recruiting class this season.

The offense has seven starters back, and while there are some new skill position players, the strength of the unit returns as four starters are back on the offensive line.  They paved the way for 224 rushing yards per game and 6.3 per carry while allowing just 13 sacks over their final eight games last season.  The defense has eight starters and eight of the top nine tacklers back from a unit that gave up just 19.7 points per game last season and will be a strength.

Ohio State was also went 11-2 last season after a big comeback win over Utah in the Rose Bowl.  The Buckeyes will be good again with 14 starters back, but they are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in the early going.  Remember, they struggled to beat Minnesota by 14 and lost outright to Oregon in the first two weeks of the season last year.  They were also in a dog fight with Tulsa at home in the 4th quarter in their third game of the season.

Marcus Freeman and the rest of the staff have been informed of the point spread for this game, and they have stated they will use that as motivation letting their players know they are 17-point dogs.  I just like the motivation of this Notre Dame team after that tough Fiesta Bowl loss and with everyone already counting them out.  I think they come in with a chip on their shoulder and talent-wise, this game is much closer than this 17-point spread would indicate.  Roll with Notre Dame Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Southern Miss +3.5

Southern Miss is going to be one of the most improved teams in all of college football.  The Golden Eagles went 3-9 last year, had just 62 scholarship players, lost their Top 5 QB on offense due to injury and actually started 10 different players at quarterback.  They started 1-9 and kept fighting, winning their final two games despite playing a RB at QB.

That's a sign of the players continuing to play hard for Will Hill.  Now Hill enters his second season with the team, players are familiar with his systems, and they have created a ton of depth due to all the injuries last year.  The Golden Eagles return 16 starters and can only get better health at QB.  Each of the top 10 tacklers are back on defense as well from a unit that was solid last year in giving up 27.9 points and 359 yards per game.

I've been high on Liberty the past couple seasons because Hugh Freeze is one of the most underrated head coaches in the country.  Unfortunately, the Flames are in a bit of a rebuilding year this season after going 10-1 in 2022 and 8-5 last year.  After having 20 starters back in 2021, the Flames only have 11 starters back in 2022.

They lose QB Malik Willis to the NFL and he was the key to their success the past two seasons.  He led them in rushing last year by over 400 yards.  The offense has some talent but will take a step back without Willis.  The bigger concern may be returning only four starters on defense.  The Flames lose four of their top five tacklers as well.  Two teams headed in opposite directions here in 2022.  I'll side with the team on the rise.  Roll with Southern Miss Saturday.

20* CFB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Troy/Ole Miss UNDER 57.5

Two teams that are loaded defensively this season square off in Week 1.  I think Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss get the reputation of being an offensive juggernaut and not enough credit on defense.  That was the case last season.

Ole Miss gave up just 24.7 points per game last season.  In fact, each of their final eight games last season saw 57 or fewer combined points, which makes for a perfect 8-0 system backing the UNDER pertaining to this 57.5-point total.  The Rebels return seven starters on defense and will be ferocious on that side of the ball again.

Not to mention, Ole Miss is going to take a huge step back on offense this season.  They lose QB Matt Corral, each of their top three receivers and each of their top three rushers.  Corral is a huge loss as he threw for 3,349 yards and 20 TD while also rushing for 614 yards and 11 TD.  USC transfer Jaxson Dart could be good, but he has some big shoes to fill.

Troy was a dead nuts UNDER team last season.  They only combined for 60-plus points with their opponents once in 12 games last season.  They had a woeful offense that averaged 22.8 points per game, and while they will be better with nine starters back, don't expect huge improvement.  The defense is loaded with nine returning starters from a unit that gave up 26.1 points and 337 yards per game.  They will be able to hold Ole Miss in check with eight of their top nine tacklers back.

The UNDER is 8-1-1 in Trojans last 10 non-conference games.  The UNDER is 10-3 in Trojans last 13 road games.  The UNDER is 8-0 in Ole Miss' last eight games overall.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

15* Oregon/Georgia ABC ANNIHILATOR on Oregon +17.5

Georgia comes into the 2022 season overvalued after finally winning the National Championship for the first time in 41 years.  The Bulldogs only return 10 starters from that team and lose nine players to the NFL on defense alone.  Not to mention, they have been feeling fat and happy all offseason and I question their motivation heading into the opener.

Mario Cristobal is a great recruiter but not a great head coach.  I don't think the Ducks are downgrading at all with Dan Lanning coming over from Georgia, where he was the defensive coordinator the last three years and guided the nation's top D.  That also gives the Ducks an advantage in preparation as Lanning knows all of Georgia's players and schemes.

The cupboard is far from bare for Lanning as the Ducks return 15 starters this season.  They also add in Auburn transfer Bo Nix at quarterback.  He will be starting for a 4th consecutive season and is coming off his best year with 61% completions, 2,294 passing yards and an 11-to-3 TD/INT ratio last season.  He is also a dual-threat that has rushed for 869 yards in his career.

Oregon is very strong in the trenches and that gives them a chance to hang with Georgia.  There are 86 career starts and four starters returning on the offensive line in what will be one of the nation's best units.  Four of the top six are back on the defensive line, plus they add in two Nebraska transfers and Sam Taimani from Washington.  They could be even better than last year on the D-Line despite losing All-American Thibodeaux.  This game will be much closer than the odds suggest.  Bet Oregon Saturday.

15* Cincinnati/Arkansas ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +7

The disrespect the Cincinnati Bearcats are getting to open the season is alarming.  I'm shocked they are catching a touchdown on the road to the Arkansas Razorbacks.  Cincinnati made the four-team playoff last year and deservedly so with a 13-0 regular season before falling to Alabama in the playoffs, but playing them pretty tough.

Now the Bearcats return 13 starters this season and Luke Fickell is doing a tremendous job here recruiting and coaching them up.  They have eight starters back on offense, and although there is a drop off from Desmond Ridder to Eastern Michigan's Ben Bryant, I don't think it will be as significant as most are expecting.  They add in a 1,000-yard receiver from Hawaii in Nick Mardner and return all five starters up front, making this Fickell's best offensive line yet.

The Bearcats have allowed 16.8 and 16.9 points per game the past two seasons, respectively.  There will be a small drop off here with only five returning starters.  They lost their top two defensive linemen, but add in Ohio State transfer Noah Potter.  Deshawn Pace (95 tackles, 9.5 TFL last year) is back at linebacker and welcomes his brother Ivan Pace (125 tackles, 13 TFL), who was the MAC Defensive Player of the Year at Miami Ohio last year.  The drop off defensively won't be much.

Arkansas is getting some love after a surprising 9-4 season last year that ended with a 24-10 win over Penn State in the Outback Bowl.  But keep in mind that was a veteran Arkansas team that returned 19 starters.  Now the Razorbacks have just 11 starters back, and although QB KJ Jefferson is one of them, there are holes everywhere else.

The defense returns just four starters and loses four of its top five tacklers from a veteran unit that improved by 12.0 points per game allowed from 2020 to 2021.  They won't be nearly as good on this side of the ball in 2022.  They lose three of their top four receivers, including their start in Treylon Burks (1,104 yards, 11 TD last year), who was taken in the first round of the NFL Draft.  This game will go down to the wire with the Bearcats likely pulling the upset.  Take Cincinnati Saturday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Arizona +6.5

Arizona had to be the best 1-11 team in the history of college football last season.  They were only outgained by 15 yards per game overall and had five losses by single-digits to BYU, Washington, USC and Utah.  Knowing they played Utah and BYU tough, two of the best teams in the country last year, showed what they were capable of.

Keep in mind that was Jed Fisch's first season on the job.  Now Fisch has 15 starters back and actually came through with the 33rd-best recruiting class in the country for 2022.  They add in Washington State transfer Jayden de Laura at quarterback and I think this is going to be the single most improved team in the country.

I'm not high at all on San Diego State this season.  Brady Hoke goes from having 17 starters back last season to just 12 starters back in 2022.  They lose leading rusher Greg Bell (1,091 yards, 9 TD) and three of their top four receivers on offense.  Only five starters are back on offense.  The defense will be solid again with seven starters back, but they do lose Mountain West Defensive Player of the Year Cameron Thomas, who was also a second-team All-American.  The special teams also loses do-everything P/K Matt Araiza, who set the NCAA record for punting average (51.19).

San Diego State went 6-0 in one-score games last year.  That is almost unheard of.  So they were very lucky to have a 12-2 record.  They only outgained teams by 21 yards per game on the season.  So the Aztecs are going to take a step back, while the Wildcats are going to take a step forward.  I think this line should be much closer to PK or Arizona favored.

Plays on road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (Arizona) - a team that had a turnover margin of -1 per game or worse last season are 57-23 (71.2%) ATS since 1992.  Arizona was -17 in turnovers last year, so they are due for some positive regression in that department as well.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* CFB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Duke -7

To be clear, I'm not high on Duke this season.  But I think this is a great 'buy low' spot on the Blue Devils coming off a disastrous 3-9 season where they opened 3-1 before losing their final eight games.  Longtime head coach David Cutcliffe was let go, and in comes the underrated Mike Elko to give them new life.  Elko has been a defensive coordinator at Wake Forest under Dave Clawson, at Notre Dame under Brian Kelly and at Texas A&M the last four years under Jimbo Fisher, so he is ready for this.

The cupboard is not bare for Elko as the Blue Devils return 11 starters and 50 lettermen this season.  He came through with the 48th-best recruiting class.  This was a young team last year despite most teams having almost everyone back, which was a big problem.  Four of the top five tacklers are back on defense, so Elko does have something to work with there and this will be one of the most improved stop units in the country after allowing 39.8 points and 517 yards per game last season.

The offense is in good hands with six returning starters including four starters and 124 career starts along the offensive line.  The new offensive coordinator is Kevin Johns, who led Memphis to 30.1, 31.0 and 40.4 points per game the last three years.  Duke moved the ball fine last year at 418 yards per game, but they managed just 22.8 points per game.  They averaged 18.3 yards per point, which was the 6th-worst mark in the country, and those teams tend to bounce back.

To be clear, the Temple Owls are going to be one of the worst teams in the country again.  They went 1-6 in 2020 and it didn't go any better last year as they were 3-9 with two of their wins coming against Akron and Wagner.  They averaged 16.3 points per game and gave up 37.5 points per game last season, getting outscored by 21.2 points per game.

The head coaching carousel now sees Temple with its 6th head coach in 7 seasons.  First-hear head coach Stan Drayton comes over after serving as running backs coach at Texas the last five years.  This was one of the worst hires in the country.  While Drayton does have 14 starters back, he had just the 84th-best recruiting class.  There are 12 freshmen or sophomores projected to start for Temple in the opener.  This is a complete rebuilding job.

Temple is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games as an underdog.  The Owls are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games overall.  The Blue Devils are 38-15-1 ATS in their last 54 non-conference games.  Duke is 4-0 ATS in its last four games vs. AAC opponents.  Bet Duke Friday.

15* CFB Thursday Total DOMINATOR on New Mexico State/Minnesota UNDER 53

Both Jerry Kill and PJ Fleck are big into playing defense and ball control.  I just don't see how they are going to combine to score more than 53 points in this one given their philosophy.  They also have the familiarity of Kill being a former head coach at Minnesota, so I don't expect Fleck to try and run it up on him, either.  This game will slow to a snail's pace in the second half.

Kill has nine defensive starters back for the Aggies.  The defense is the strength of the team as only four starters are back on offense.  Kill knows his best chance to win is to shorten games and control the ball on offense.  They did a great job of that in Week 0 in a 12-23 loss to Nevada.  The problem was the offense turned it over five times in a game they should have won.  They held Nevada to just 257 total yards and 3.8 yards per play.  They can keep Minnesota in check, but I don't see them scoring much at all after managing just 303 yards and 5.1 per play against Nevada.

Minnesota is a 37-point favorite in this game.  Again, Fleck won't be looking to keep scoring late.  Minnesota allowed just 17.3 points and 279 yards per game last season as one of the nation's top defenses.  The Gophers managed just 25.5 points and 360 yards per game last season offensively, so it's not like they are that potent on that side of the ball.  They return just one starter along the offensive line.  They prefer to run the ball and will try and get the ground game going in Week 1, which will help shorten the game as well.

Plays on the UNDER on any team against the total (New Mexico State) - in the first two weeks of the season, after closing out last season with four or more losses in their last five games, with nine or more defensive starters returning are 70-33 (68%) over the last 10 seasons.  The UNDER is 4-0 in Golden Gophers last four home games.  Take the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* West Virginia/Pitt ESPN No-Brainer on West Virginia +7.5

Neal Brown enters his fourth season at West Virginia.  After going 5-7 his first year, he has taken the Mountaineers to bowl games each of the past two seasons.  He is doing a great job in recruiting, which is why I'm not concerned at all that the Mountaineers only return 11 starters.  Brown came through with the 27th-best recruiting class in 2022, while Pitt was 57th.

They will be much better offensively with seven starters back.  All five starters return on the offensive line.  Jarrett Doege was holding them back at QB and has transferred.  In comes JT Daniels, who made seven starts at Georgia and came over from USC.  The new offensive coordinator is Graham Harrell, who worked with Daniels at USC so there will be familiarity with the new offense.

The Mountaineers only return four starters on defense, but eight of the top 10 defensive linemen return and this will the strength of the stop unit.  Brown hit the transfer portal hard to fill out the rest of the defense, getting MLB Lee Kpogba from Syracuse, NB Jasir Cox from North Dakota State, CB Rashad Ajayi from Colorado State, SS Marcis Floyd from Murray State and FS Hershey McClaurin from JUCO.  I think the defense will be much better than everyone anticipates as the Mountaineers have been solid on this side of the ball all three seasons under Brown.

Pittsburgh comes into the season with massive expectations after winning the ACC last season and going 11-3 overall.  Keep in mind the Panthers never won more than eight games in the previous six seasons under Pat Narduzzi, and they hadn't won more than eight games in over 10 years.  While the Panthers do have 15 starters back, they lose all of their best players.

QB Kenny Pickett (4,319 yards, 42 TD, 7 INT) was drafted in the first round by the Steelers.  Top receiver Jordan Addison (100 receptions, 1,593 yards, 17 TD) transferred to USC to play under Lincoln Riley.  The loss of offensive coordinator Mark Whipple is also massive as he was the architect of Pitt's record-setting offense.  They will have a completely new scheme under OC Frank Cignetti, who spent the past two years at Boston College.

I just think Pitt comes in overrated based on last year's results.  They should not be laying over a touchdown to an underrated West Virginia team.  This is a heated rivalry as the Backyard Brawl returns for the first time since 2011.  Pitt won't have that big of a home-field advantage for this one, either.  Narduzzi is 1-8 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Pittsburgh.  The Mountaineers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 September games.  Bet West Virginia Thursday.

20* CFB DOG OF THE WEEK on Connecticut +28

The UConn Huskies are going to be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2022.  I love the Jim Mora hire.  He joined the staff for the final four games last year so he could recruit for this season.  He retained his DC in Lou Spanos, who held the same position under Mora at UCLA and was at UConn the last three years.

The Huskies welcome back 15 starters and 54 lettermen.  They return each of their top six tacklers on defense, and they have Penn State transfer Ta'Quan Roberson at quarterback to revive the offense.  They can only be better on both sides of the football.  The Huskies had five games decided by 14 points or less last year and should be more competitive this season.

Utah State is getting a lot of love to open the season after winning the Mountain West last year and going 11-3.  But keep in mind this was a veteran team last year with 19 returning starters.  Now the Aggies have just 12 returning starters in 2022 and only 34 lettermen coming back.

While the Aggies due have QB Logan Bonner back, they lost each of their top three receivers whoe combined for over 3,3300 yards and 31 touchdowns.  There will be some chemistry issues with Bonner and his receivers to start the season.

Defensively, the Aggies are sure to take a step back as well.  They return just five starters on that side of the ball and lose four of their top five tacklers.  Despite winning 11 games last year, keep in mind that the Aggies rarely blew out anyone as they had just two wins by this kind of margin.  It's asking too much of them to win by more than four touchdowns to beat us in the opener.  Take Connecticut Saturday.

20* Northwestern/Nebraska 2022 CFB Season Opener on Northwestern +13.5

Everything went wrong for Northwestern last season.  They finished just 3-9 while having an inexperienced team with eight returning starters.  Now they have 14 starters back and will be playing with a chip on their shoulder to start the season.  Pat Fitzgerald teams are always at their most dangerous when they have been counted out.

We saw this happen a few years ago when the Wildcats went from 3-9 in 2019 to 7-2 in 2020 and a trip to the Big Ten Championship Game.  Expect a similar turnaround in 2022 with all of the experience the Wildcats return.  They have nine starters back on offense and should be greatly improved on that side of the ball.

QB Ryan Hilinski was one of the top recruits in the country when he came out of high school and signed with South Carolina.  He was in the midst of a QB carousel at NW last year as three guys made starts.  Now the job looks to be his from the get go.  He'll have 1,000-yard rusher Evan Hull to hand the ball off to, plus all of his top receivers back outside of Stephon Robinson.  110 career starts return along the offensive line and this could be Fitzgerald's best O-Line in his 17 years here.

There are five starters back on defense.  The Wildcats had allowed 23.6 PPG or fewer in six consecutive season before allowing 29.0 PPG last year.  That's unacceptable under Fitgerald.  This will be one of the most improved defenses in the country with six of the top nine tacklers back.

Once again, Nebraska comes into the 2022 season with massive expectations that are unwarranted.  Scott Frost has gone just 15-29 in his four seasons here despite big expectations every season.  The Huskers are 5-20 in one-score games under Frost, and I expect this game to go down to the wire as well.

The Huskers only return 12 starters and have a ton of new faces this season through the transfer portal.  It will take them a few games to live up to their full potential.  Remember, they lost outright as 7-point road favorites at Illinois 30-22 in the opener last season, and that was Bret Bielema's first game as Illinois head coach.  They have gone 0-4 ATS in season openers under Frost and are just 1-7 ATS in their first two games.

Northwestern is 3-2 SU & 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings with four meetings decided by 8 points or less.  In fact, six of the last seven meetings have been decided by 11 points or fewer.  The Huskers are once again getting too much love to open the season, while the Wildcats are being grossly disrespected due to last year's results with a very young team.  Bet Northwestern Saturday.

20* Alabama/Georgia Championship Game No-Brainer on Georgia ML -135

Let's start out by looking at this from a line value perspective.  Georgia was nearly a touchdown favorite over Alabama in the SEC Championship Game.  Now Georgia comes back as a 2.5 to 3-point favorite against Alabama in the rematch.  So strictly from a line value perspective, the price is right to pull the trigger on Georgia.

We are getting Georgia cheap on the Money Line because there is a lot of money on the Alabama Money Line, so I have chosen that route instead of laying the -2.5 or -3.  I fully expect them to win this game and have their revenge from the SEC Championship Game loss.  The fact of the matter is Georgia has been the better team all season, and they are ready to get their Alabama monkey off their back.

I took Alabama +6.5 in the SEC Championship Game for a couple different reasons.  But the main reason was that Alabama needed it like blood to get in the four-team playoff, while Georgia could lose and still get in.  Simply put, Alabama wanted that game more and it showed on the field as they won outright.

It's a role reversal here.  Now we are getting a max motivated Georgia team out for revenge and hungry for a National Championship.  And when Georgia has been max motivated, they have rolled all season.  Indeed, the Bulldogs have gone 13-0 SU & 9-4 ATS in their other 13 games this season.  They are outscoring opponents by nearly 30 points per game on the season.

I was way more impressed with Georgia's 34-11 win over Michigan than I was with Alabama's 27-6 win over Cincinnati.  That was a very good Michigan team, and the Bulldogs made them look like they didn't even belong on the field.  Alabama was in a dog fight with Cincinnati midway through the 3rd quarter, while the Georgia game was decided by halftime as they took a 27-3 lead and coasted from there.

Alabama passed all over Georgia in the SEC Championship Game but it's not going to happen again.  Kirby Smart will make the proper adjustments, and he won't have to deal with one of Alabama's best receivers in John Metchie this time around after he suffered a season-ending ACL tear.  Metchie had six receptions for 97 yards and a score against Georgia in the first meeting.    Now the Bulldogs can focus their attention on stopping Jameson Williams, who had 68 receptions for 1,445 yards and 15 touchdowns this season.  

Metchie had 96 receptions for 1,142 yards and eight scores on the year and is a huge loss as he was Bryce Young's security blanket.  Also, RG Emil Cyiyor Jr. and RT Chris Owens exited the win over Cincinnati with injuries and are questionable to play.  They were already without C Darian Dalcourt and he's questionable to return as well.  That's not good news for the Crimson Tide being up against the best defensive line in the country in the Bulldogs.  Bet Georgia on the Money Line Monday.

15* LSU/Kansas State Texas Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Kansas State -3.5

The Kansas State Wildcats clearly want to be playing in the Texas Bowl.  They have everyone available for this game including QB Skylar Thompson, who has been out since November 20th in a loss to Baylor.  Thompson means everything to their offense as he is a huge upgrade over backup Will Howard, who completed only 54.5% of his passes in Thompson's absence.

Indeed, Thompson is the leader of this team, and he is also a great player as well.  Thompson is completing 68.8% of his passes with a 9-to-4 TD/INT ratio this season, while also scoring four touchdowns on the ground.  He'll be supported by one of the best defenses in the Big 12 that gives up just 21.1 points per game on the season.

LSU got the big 27-24 upset win over Texas A&M in their regular season finale to send Ed Orgeron out a winner.  But now Brian Kelly will be taking his place, and this is a program in transition heading into their bowl game.  Offensive line coach Brad Davis will serve as the interim coach, and he is having to deal with a ton of opt-outs and transfers.

LSU will be without QB Max Johnson among others.  That's a huge blow as Johnson had a 27-to-6 TD/INT ratio this season.  The only scholarship quarterback left on the roster is Garrett Nussmeier, a true freshman who appeared in four games and completed just 50.9% of his passes.  LSU is still trying to get a redshirt for him.  I just think this team is distracted as a whole right now and doesn't want to be here nearly as bad as the Wildcats, and motivation is everything in bowl games.

Kansas State is 39-16-2 ATS in its last 57 games following an ATS loss.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games as a favorite.  Kansas State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after going under the total in two or more consecutive games.  Bet Kansas State Tuesday.

15* Baylor/Ole Miss Sugar Bowl BAILOUT on Ole Miss ML -120

You just have to love Ole Miss QB Matt Corral.  He has decided to play in this game despite the likelihood that he could be the top QB drafted in the NFL this spring.  He is a gamer, and he played through injury at the end of the season.  Corral should be has healthy as he has been in a long time and ready to put on a showcase for NFL scouts against Baylor in the Sugar Bowl.

"It never crossed my mind to sit out the game," Corral said.  "I'm healthy, I'm going to give these guys everything I got til it's over." I think having that continuity, plus Lane Kiffin returning next season gives the Rebels huge motivation heading into this game.  DE Sam Williams, who set a school record with 12.5 sacks, will also play for Ole Miss, which has no opt-outs for the New Orleans classic.  

Corral leads a Ole Miss offense that is 4th in the country at 506.6 yards per game and scores 35.9 points per game.  Corral is completing 68.3% of his passes for 3,333 yards with a 20-to-4 TD/INT ratio, while also rushing for 597 yards and 11 scores.  He will be the best player on the field by far.  And he'll be supported by an underrated Ole Miss defense that gave up 25.0 points per game this season despite the offense playing at such a fast tempo.

Baylor's season is a success no matter what happens in this game.  They pulled off the shocking 21-16 upset of Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship after getting goal-line stand in the final seconds.  They won that game despite gaining just 242 yards on offense and getting outgained by 91 yards.  They benefitted from four Oklahoma State turnovers.  They had barely beaten a bad Texas Tech team 27-24 at home as 14-point favorites the week prior.  Their luck runs out in the Sugar Bowl against this better Ole Miss team.

Ole Miss is 12-2 SU & 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 bowl games.  Baylor is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 non-conference games.  Ole Miss is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight neutral site games as a favorite.  The Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Ole Miss is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Take Ole Miss Saturday.

20* Utah/Ohio State Rose Bowl No-Brainer on Utah +4.5

I don't think Ohio State is going to be that motivated even though the Rose Bowl is a New Year's 6 game.  They had won eight straight games and looked destined to make the four-team playoff.  But a loss to Michigan in the regular season finale cost them a trip to the Big Ten Championship where they would have throttled Iowa just as Michigan did.

Now the Buckeyes have had a ton of opt-outs, which is why this line has dropped.  But it hasn't dropped enough as Utah should be favored given their motivational advantage and all the players the Buckeyes will be missing.

They will be without their top two receivers in Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson, who combined for 135 receptions, nearly 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns.  They will also be without DT Haskell Garrett and OT Nicholas Petit-Frere, fellow projected top picks alongside Olave and Wilson.  So they will be without four of their best players.

Utah will be playing in its first Rose Bowl since joining the Pac-12 in 2011, so you know they will be motivated.  The Utes are also one of the hottest teams in the nation having won six straight and nine of their past 10 games.  They throttled Oregon twice by 31 and 28 points, the same Oregon team that went on the road and beat Ohio State earlier this season.

Utah limited four of its last five opponents to 13 points or fewer.  QB Cameron Rising has given the offense a huge boost since taking over for Charlie Brewer.  He has thrown for 2,279 yards with an 18-to-5 TD/INT ratio.  His dual-threat ability has made this offense more dynamic as he has rushed for 407 yards and five scores while averaging 6.5 per carry.

Kyle Whittingham is 11-3 in bowl games and one of the best bowl coaches ever.  He will have the Utes ready for this game, and they are expected to have a big home-field advantage with thousands of fans making the trip to Pasadena.  I don't think the same can be said for the Buckeyes and head coach Ryan Day with all of these opt-outs.  Utah likely wins this game outright.

Utah is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games vs. excellent passing teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better.  The Utes are 47-22-2 ATS in their last 71 games as underdogs.  The Buckeyes are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  Ohio State is 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

25* New Year's 6 Bowl GAME OF THE YEAR on Notre Dame -1.5

Notre Dame is happy to be playing in the Fiesta Bowl.  The Fighting Irish lost early in the season to Cincinnati in a bad spot where the Bearcats were coming off a bye while Notre Dame was coming off a physical game against Wisconsin in an impressive 41-13 win.  So that head-to-head loss to Cincinnati was likely going to keep them out of the playoff anyway.

Oklahoma State, on the other hand, had a legit shot to make the four-team playoff.  But they came up a yard short as they just couldn't score from the 1-yard line late in a 16-21 upset loss to Baylor in the Big 12 Championship Game.  This is actually a letdown for them having to play in the Fiesta Bowl when they could be in the four-team playoff instead.

The Fighting Irish have rallied around new head coach Marcus Freeman and offensive coordinator Tommy Reese.  These two will lead this program for years to come after Brian Kelly left for LSU.  You can tell the players love these two guys, and they'll show up for their coaches and play their hearts out in the Fiesta Bowl.

The key to beating Oklahoma State is to force Spencer Sanders to try and throw the football.  He's a terrible passer and their passing game is the biggest weakness in this matchup.  Notre Dame only allows 3.7 yards per carry and 127 rushing yards per game, so it's going to be tough sledding for this Cowboys offense.  Sanders has a 16-to-12 TD/INT ratio on the season and is a turnover machine.  His turnovers will be the difference in this game.

Jack Coan protects the football and has had a big season for the Fighting Irish.  He is completing 67.6% of his passes with a 20-to-5 TD/INT ratio on the season.  The Fighting Irish will be without leading rusher Kyren Williams, but he only averaged 4.9 yards per carry this season.  I don't think his loss is as big as it is being made out to be.  The fact of the matter is the Fighting Irish have the better talent across the board.

The Fighting Irish are 7-0 SU & 7-0 ATS in their last seven games overall with six straight wins by double-digits coming in.  Notre Dame is 10-0 ATS in its last 10 games after winning six or seven of its last eight games.  The Fighting Irish are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Notre Dame Saturday.

20* Georgia/Michigan Orange Bowl No-Brainer on Michigan +8

The Michigan Wolverines have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season.  They have gone 12-1 SU & 11-2 ATS this season while outgaining their opponents by 136 yards per game and 1.8 yards per play.  They remain undervalued as 8-point underdogs to Georgia in the Orange Bowl.

Not only did Michigan finally get that monkey off their back with their first win over Ohio State (42-27) under Jim Harbaugh, but they avoided the letdown the next week and crushed Iowa 42-3 in the Big Ten Championship.  That let me know this team is serious about winning a national title, and they will be playing with a chip on their shoulder as this big of an underdog to Georgia.

The Big Ten was clearly the stronger of these two conferences and that has played out in the bowl games up to this point.  Georgia faced a much easier schedule than Michigan this season.  After opening 12-0 against a suspect schedule, the Bulldogs finally stepped up in class and were blasted 41-24 by Alabama while allowing 536 total yards.  They were barely punished at all by oddsmakers for that loss as they remain overvalued here laying more than a touchdown to a Michigan team that is every bit as good as Alabama.  

Both teams like to run the football and both teams are great at stopping the run.  The weakness of both teams is their QB play, but I think it's actually more of an issue for Georgia than it is for Michigan.  Cade McNamara has completed 65% of his passes with a 15-to-4 TD/INT ratio on the season.  Stetson Bennett is great at playing from ahead but we saw how bad he was when he had to try to play from behind against Alabama.  Bet Michigan Friday.

15* Alabama/Cincinnati Cotton Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Cincinnati +13.5

The SEC is getting too much respect in these bowl games, and that includes Alabama.  The Crimson Tide are getting a ton of respect after beating Georgia 41-24 in the SEC Championship Game.  Alabama was in must-win mode while Georgia didn't need the win to make the four-team playoff, which is why I was on Alabama in that game.

But now the Crimson Tide come back as nearly two-touchdown favorites against a Cincinnati team that has earned the right to be in the four-team playoff.  And I think they'll put up a much better fight than some of these other Power 5 teams have against Alabama in the past.  The Bearcats played their best football of the season down the stretch with the pressure on.

Indeed, they went 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their final three games overall.  Many thought they would get a test from SMU, but they throttled the Mustangs 48-14 and outgained them by 345 yards.  They went on to cover in a 35-13 win at East Carolina as a 14.5-point favorite and a 35-20 home win over Houston as a 10.5-point favorite in the AAC Championship.  They also beat Notre Dame on the road 24-13 earlier this season to prove they could play with the big boys.

Cincinnati has a championship-level defense that can keep them in this game for four quarters.  They allow just 16.1 points, 305 yards per game and 4.3 yards per play.  They have a veteran dual-threat QB in Desmond Ridder who doesn't make mistakes.  Ridder has a 30-to-8 TD/INT ratio this season and has rushed for 361 yards and six scores.  Alabama's kryptonite has been dual-threat quarterbacks in the past.  Think of Deshaun Watson of Clemson and Johnny Manziel and a few others at Texas A&M.

Cincinnati is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  The Bearcats are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games when playing against a team with better than a 75% winning percentage.  Cincinnati is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 10-plus points per game.  Take Cincinnati Friday.

15* ASU/Wisconsin Las Vegas Bowl BAILOUT on Wisconsin -6

Wisconsin is one of the most underrated bowl teams this season.  Their 8-4 record doesn't show how good this team really was this season.  And their upset loss to Minnesota in the finale has them pissed off and undervalued coming into this Las Vegas Bowl against Arizona State.

"Obviously, the regular season didn't end the way we would've liked it," Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst said. "But I go back to the fact that this group truly does enjoy each other.  They care about each other, and we've got one game that we can play and one more opportunity.  I think for all those reasons, it means a lot to them."

The Badgers led the nation in total defense at 240.8 yards per game and were 6th in scoring defense at 16.4 points per game.  This is the best unit on the field and it's not close.  The Badgers outgained their opponents by 136 yards per game and 1.4 yards per play on the season.  That is the sign of an elite team.

Arizona State's suspect offense is going to struggle to do anything against this Wisconsin defense.  QB Jayden Daniels was a big disappointment this season accounting for only 16 total touchdowns.  He had a 10-to-9 TD/INT ratio through the air.  The Sun Devils rely heavily on the run to move the football as they average more rushing yards than passing.  That isn't going to work against a Wisconsin defense that gives up just 66 rushing yards per game and 2.2 per carry.

Making matters worse for this ASU offense is that they will be without their best playmaker on offense and each of their top two rushers.  They will be without RB Rachaad White and his 1,006 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, and backup RB DeaMonte Trayanum and his 402 rushing yards and six scores.  Defensively, they will be without their top two cornerbacks in Chase Lucas and Jack Jones as they opted out to get ready for the NFL Draft.  Meanwhile, Wisconsin should have all hands on deck as they have no opt-outs up to this point.

Wisconsin is 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in its last seven bowl games.  The Sun Devils are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 bowl games.  Arizona State is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after allowing 100 or fewer rushing yards last game.  The Sun Devils are 2-7 ATS in their last nine non-conference games.  I'll gladly side with the Big Ten over the Pac-12 in almost any bowl game blindly, but this one checks all the boxes for sure.  Take Wisconsin in the Las Vegas Bowl Thursday.

20* Purdue/Tennessee Music City Bowl No-Brainer on Tennessee -5.5

Tennessee is excited to be playing in a bowl game in the first season under Josh Heupel.  They will be well-represented in Nashville in the Music City Bowl, so it will be a nice home-field advantage for them.  And I expect a big effort for the Volunteers, who have won four straight bowl games coming in.

All five of Tennessee's losses came against teams that are now ranked or were ranked at the time they played them.  Their only losses came to Pittsburgh (by 7), Florida, Ole Miss (by 5), Alabama and Georgia.  They have been through the gauntlet and their numbers are very impressive.

Tennessee puts up 38.8 points per game, 458.6 yards per game and 6.5 yards per play on offense.  Hendon Hooker is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country with a 69% completion percentage and a 26-to-3 TD/INT ratio to go along with 561 rushing yards and five scores.  Their defense is very underrated as they give up just 5.2 yards per play, outgaining teams by 1.3 yards per play on the season.

Purdue had a great season and would give Tennessee a run for its money at full strength.  But the fact of the matter is the Volunteers are nowhere near full strength.  They will be missing their best player on offense and their best player on defense.  WR David Bell is sitting out after finishing with 93 receptions for 1,286 yards and six touchdowns this season.  DE George Karlafitis is also opting out as he will likely be a TOp 5 pick in the NFL Draft.

If being without Bell and Karlafitis wasn't enough, the Boilermakers will also be without offensive lineman Greg Long, CB Dedrick Mackey and WR Milton Wright.  The Wright loss is even bigger due to the loss of Bell.  Wright was their second-leading receiver with 57 receptions for 732 yards and seven touchdowns.  So that's 150 receptions, 2,018 yards and 13 touchdowns combined between them gone.  They already have a weak offense, and they will have a hard time keeping up with Tennessee without these guys.  Bet Tennessee in the Music City Bowl Thursday.

15* Iowa State/Clemson Cheez-It Bowl Line Mistake on Clemson -2

Iowa State is going to be without one of the best players in the country in RB Breece Hall.  He had nearly 1,800 scrimmage yards and 23 touchdowns while leading the nation in scoring.  Clemson's stout defensive line won't have to respect the play-action, which is going to be a problem for QB Brock Purdy and this suspect Iowa State offensive line.  Clemson had 24 sacks in their last five games, while Iowa State went 0-5 ATS in games they allowed multiple sacks this season.

But the hits have kept coming for the Cyclones.  They will be without Co-Big 12 Defensive Freshman of the Year Isheem Young, who is fourth in tackles and led the team in interceptions and was second in forced fumbles.  They will be without CB Kym-Mani King and LB Aric Horne.  And I added this pick on game day because I read that WR Xavier Hutchinson and LB Mike Rose will likely also be out.  So it sounds like they'll be without their top RB, top WR, best defensive player in Rose, his backup, their starting safety, starting corner and starting center.

Clemson played up to its potential down the stretch in going 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS this season with those 24 sacks.  Their defense is one of the best in the country and the best unit on the field, which is why they should win this game.  Their offense scored at least 30 points in all five wins down the stretch.  They simply have the better athletes on the field, and I don't give the Cyclones much of a chance with all they'll be missing.  

Iowa State struggled when they stepped up in class this season losing to Iowa, Baylor and Oklahoma as well as upset losses to West Virginia and Texas Tech.  They underachieved based on expectations, and they simply weren't that good.  The Tigers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 bowl games.  Clemson is 14-2 ATS in its last 16 December games.  The Cyclones are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games, including 0-5 ATS in their last five neutral site games as underdogs.  Take Clemson Wednesday.

20* Maryland/VA Tech ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Maryland -3.5

The Maryland Terrapins were sitting at 5-6 and facing 5-6 Rutgers with the winning getting a chance to go to a bowl game.  The Terrapins won that game 40-16 in dominant fashion while outgaining the Scarlet Knights by 238 yards behind 575 total yards of offense against a good Rutgers defense.

It's safe to say that Maryland wants to be playing in this bowl game.  The Terrapins haven't been to a bowl game since 2016 and haven't won one since 2010.  They haven't had any key opt-outs, and this young team will relish this opportunity, as will head coach Mike Locksley.

The same cannot be said for Virginia Tech.  This is a program in flux now after head coach Justin Fuente was fired on November 16th.  Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry has been hired to replace Fuente, leaving J.C. Price as the interim coach to finish out this season.

The Hokies have been hit hard by opt-outs as they will be missing seven starters.  They will be without QB Braxton Burmeister, wide receivers Tre Turner and Tayvion Robinson, cornerback Jermaine Waller, defensive end Amare Barno, NT Jordan Williams and OG Lecitus Smith.  

Turner and Robinson were Virginia Tech's top two receivers, combining for 84 receptions, 1,234 yards and eight touchdowns.  Robinson was also the punt returner.  Burmeister entered the transfer portal as well.  He threw for 14 touchdowns and four interceptions while also rushing for 521 yards and two scores.

Maryland played the 17th-toughest schedule in the country this season and actually outgained its opponents by 24 yards per game.  Virginia Tech played the 65th-ranked schedule and was actually outgained by 14 yards per game.  So the Terrapins were the better of these two teams even before all the opt-outs and distractions for the Hokies.  They should be much more than a 3.5-point favorite given the circumstances.

Plays on favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (Maryland) - off an upset win as a road underdog against n opponent that is off a road win are 41-17 (70.7%) ATS since 1992.  Virginia Tech is 1-8 ATS following a win over the last two seasons.  The Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last six non-conference games.  Bet Maryland in the Pinstripe Bowl Wednesday.

20* Louisville/Air Force First Responder Bowl No-Brainer on Air Force +1

Air Force went 9-3 this year and was very close to a perfect 12-0 season.  All three losses were one-score games and by a combined 17 points.  The Falcons should not be underdogs to this 6-6 Louisville team that didn't beat a single team with a winning record this season.

Air Force leads the country with 341.4 rushing yards per game.  They should have success on the ground against a Louisville defense that allows 157 rushing yards per game and 4.5 yards per carry.  They haven't faced a rushing attack as potent as Air Force.  The only one they did face that was close was Kentucky, and they allowed 362 rushing yards in a 52-21 loss in the regular season finale against the Wildcats.

While this Air Force rushing attack is potent, the defense has almost been more impressive.  The Falcons rank 5th in the country in allowing just 288.8 total yards per game.  They are 7th against the run at 95.6 yards per game and 20th against the pass at 193.3 yards per game.  This is a below-average Louisville defense that ranks 84th at 402.5 yards per game allowed this season.

Air Force went 5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS in road games this season.  Louisville is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games off a home loss by 14 points or more.  The Falcons are 6-0 ATS after gaining 350 or more rushing yards last game this season.  Air Force is 20-6 ATS in its last 26 games following a win by more than 20 points.  The Falcons are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 non-conference games.  The Cardinals are 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Louisville is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 non-conference games.  Bet Air Force in the First Responder Bowl Tuesday.

20* Ball State/Georgia State Camellia Bowl No-Brainer on Georgia State -5.5

Georgia State played as well as anyone in the Sun Belt down the stretch with the exception of perhaps conference champion Louisiana.  The Panthers rebounded from a 1-4 start by going 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their final seven games overall.  They are clearly excited to be playing in this bowl game because they earned it.

They upset Coastal Carolina as 12.5-point road underdogs.  Their only loss during this stretch came to Sun Belt champion Louisiana, 17-21 as 13.5-point road underdogs.  But they easily could have won that game and actually led with under three minutes to play.  Those efforts against Coastal and Louisiana show how good this team really is.

Ball State won the MAC last year and brought almost everyone back.  The Cardinals were huge disappointments this season finishing just 6-6.  Their last two wins came against Akron and Buffalo in non-impressive fashion against two of the worst teams in the MAC.  They managed just 230 total yards against Buffalo and were outgained by 106 yards despite winning.  They were outgained by 33 yards by Akron and needed to force a fumble at the goal line to escape with a 31-25 win as 20-point favorites.

This is a great matchup for Georgia State's offense.  The Panthers rank 8th in the country in rushing at 225 yards per game and 5.0 yards per carry.  They will be up against a Ball State defense that allows 170 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry.  The Cardinals average just 335.9 yards per game on offense and give up 415.7 yards per game on defense, getting outgained by nearly 80 yards per game.  This simply isn't a very good Ball State team with those numbers.

Georgia State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.  It is winning by 15.3 points per game in this spot.  The Panthers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against poor pass defenses that allow 62% completions or higher.  Georgia State is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games following a win.  The Cardinals are 1-4 SU & 1-4 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Roll with Georgia State Saturday.

20* CFB Bowl TOTAL OF THE WEEK Miami Ohio/North Texas on OVER 54.5

Two offenses that are better than they get credit for square off in the Frisco Football Classic in this matchup between the Miami Ohio Redhawks and North Texas Mean Green Thursday.  Look for a shootout that easily tops this 54.5-point total today.

North Texas won five straight games to close the season behind an offense that put up 36.4 points per game during the winning streak.  They rushed for over 300 yards three times and are an elite rushing offense.  They should be able to run the ball at will on a Miami Ohio defense that gave up 161 rushing yards per game and 4.3 per carry this season.

Miami Ohio has scored 33 or more points in five of its last six games overall.  They passes for 351 or more yards in three of their last four games.  Brett Gabbert is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country with a 24-to-6 TD/INT ratio on the season.  They should be able to move the ball through the air on a North Texas defense that allows 7.7 yards per attempt while the Redhawks average 8.3 yards per pass attempt.

North Texas has played in shootouts in each of its last four bowl games because it always has a good offense and terrible defense.  They combined for 84 points with Appalachian State last year, 65 points with Utah State in 2018, 80 points with Troy in 2017 and 69 points with Army in 2016.  All four combined totals would easily top this 54.5-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Thursday.

15* Missouri/Army Armed Forces Bowl ANNIHILATOR on Army -3.5

The Army Black Knights completed an 8-4 season under head coach Jeff Monken and continue to be a powerhouse.  And I think we are getting them cheap in the Armed Forces Bowl against Missouri due to getting upset by Navy in their regular season finale.  But that was Navy's National Championship because they weren't going bowling.  

Army knew they had this bowl game on deck, and they'll be looking to cap off the season on a high note.  The loss to Navy only makes them even more motivated, and they'll have no problem getting up to face a team from the SEC in Missouri here to showcase how good they really are.

This will be Army's third trip to the Armed Forces Bowl in Monken's run of five bowl games in the past six seasons.  They upset San Diego State 42-35 in 2017 and crushed Houston 70-14 in 2018.  The Black Knights are now 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.  Their triple-option is tough for opponents to prepare for.

That will definitely be the case for Missouri as this is the perfect matchup for Army.  The Black Knights ranked 2nd in the country in averaging 287 rushing yards per game and 4.9 yards per carry.  Missouri ranks 124th in the country against the run, allowing 229 rushing yards per game and a whopping 5.5 yards per carry.  Army is going to be able to run the ball at will on this putrid Missouri defense.

The Tigers aren't a great passing team, averaging 6.6 yards per pass, and defending the pass is Army's weakness.  The matchup is a good one for this Army defense, too.  They give up just 111 rushing yards per game and 3.7 yards per carry.  That will make life difficult on a Missouri offense that relies heavily on the run at 180 rushing yards per game and 5.1 per carry.

Missouri is 8-21 ATS in its last 29 games overall.  The Tigers are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Missouri is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 December games.  The Black Knights are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 December games.  The Tigers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games after a game where they forced one or fewer turnovers.  Monken is 9-1 ATS after scoring and allowing 17 points or less as the coach of the Black Knights.  Take Army Wednesday.

Update: This line has moved in Army's favor since I published it early in the week due to the SEC's leading rusher being out for Missouri.  Tyler Badie's absence is a huge blow to the Missouri offense as he had 1,942 yards from scrimmage and 18 touchdowns, including 1,612 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.  I would still recommend a play at -6.5, but this play will be graded at -3.5.

20* SDSU/UTSA Frisco Bowl No-Brainer on UTSA +3

The UTSA Roadrunners went 12-1 this season with their only loss coming in a meaningless game against North Texas in the regular season finale.  They were coming off their huge win against UAB to clinch their spot in the C-USA title game, and they had that game on deck against Western Kentucky.  North Texas needed the win to make a bowl game so it was just the perfect storm for the Roadrunners to lose that game.

They rebounded with a dominant 49-41 win over Western Kentucky in a game that was a bigger blowout than the final score showed.  They led 42-13 before the Hilltoppers made a late run with their dynamic passing game, which they always seem to do.  And beating Western Kentucky twice this season looks even better now with how well Conference USA looks in bowl games thus far.

Middle Tennessee won outright against Toledo as a double-digit dog, Western Kentucky upset Appalachian State 59-38, UAB upset BYU 31-28 and UTEP covered as a double-digit dog in a 24-31 loss to Fresno State.  The conference is 4-1 ATS in bowl games already with the only non-cover coming on Marshall after getting outscored by 20 points in the 4th quarter of a 36-21 loss to Louisiana (13-1).

San Diego State went 11-2 this season but lost badly 46-13 to Utah State in the Mountain West Championship Game.  I don't see them being all that motivated to play UTSA after losing that game.  The Aztecs have six wins by one score this season and aren't as good as their record.

I like the matchup for UTSA because their weakness on defense is against the pass, and San Diego State only averages 25 pass attempts and 158 passing yards per game.  The Aztecs rely on the run to move the football, and UTSA ranks 11th in the country in yards per carry (3.2) allowed while giving up just 111 rushing yards per game.

UTSA will be the more motivated team to get to 13 wins and capture their first bowl win in program history.  The Roadrunners will also have the home-field advantage with thsi game being played in Frisco, Texas.  The fans sold out their home game against Western Kentucky in the C-USA Championship Game and it was a huge advantage.  They will travel the four hours to support their team here in Frisco, too.

UTSA is 6-0 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Roadrunners are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.  UTSA is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 games as an underdog.  The Aztecs are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games as favorites.  Roll with UTSA Tuesday.

20* Tulsa/Old Dominion ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Old Dominion +9

Old Dominion didn't even play last season due to COVID.  Monarchs head coach Ricky Rahne had a tall task ahead of him.  That showed early in the season as the Monarchs opened 1-6.  But they have since going 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS to get to 6-6 and earn a bowl bid.

It's safe to say Old Dominion will be highly motivated for a bowl victory after fighting so hard at the end of the season just to get here.  And it will be just the second bowl game in program history, adding to the motivation.

The turnaround for the Monarchs came when freshman QB Hayden Wolff replaced UCF transfer Darriel Mack Jr. midseason.  He completed 62.2% of his passes and was way more elusive than Mack Jr, leading the Monarchs to a 5-1 record in his six starts down the stretch.

Tulsa also had a nice finish just to make this bowl game, but I don't think the Golden Hurricane can be trusted to lay this big of a number.  They are 6-6 as well but five of those six wins came by one score.  Their only blowout victory came against lowly Temple, which finished 1-7 in AAC play.

Tulsa QB Davis Brin had a 16-to-16 TD/INT ratio this season.  The Golden Hurricane rely heavily on the run to move the football.  That makes this a great matchup for the Monarchs.  They give up just 125 rushing yards per game and 3.5 per carry, ranking in the Top 25 in the country against the run.

Conference USA has looked impressive in bowl games thus far.  Middle Tennessee won outright against Toledo as a double-digit dog, Western Kentucky upset Appalachian State 59-38, UAB upset BYU 31-28 and UTEP covered as a double-digit dog in a 24-31 loss to Fresno State.  The conference is 4-1 ATS in bowl games already with the only non-cover coming on Marshall after getting outscored by 20 points in the 4th quarter of a 36-21 loss to Louisiana (13-1).  Tulsa is 2-6 ATS in its last eight games vs. C-USA opponents.  Bet Old Dominion Monday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Eastern Michigan +9.5

The Liberty Flames had high expectations this season after going 10-1 last year and beating Coastal Carolina in the Cure Bowl to finish No. 17 in the polls.  The Flames opened 7-2 this season before finishing with three straight losses to Ole Miss, Louisiana and Army all by double-digits and by a combined 56 points.

Now I question the Flames' motivation heading into the LendingTree Bowl sitting at 7-5.  They go from playing unbeaten Coastal Carolina in their bowl game last year to playing a 7-5 Eastern Michigan team from the MAC.  I don't think they will be all that motivated, and they are being asked to win by double-digits to beat us.

I know Eastern Michigan is going to be motivated.  In fact, the Eagles haven't won a bowl game since 1987.  They didn't go to another bowl until 2016.  They have since lost three straight bowl games all by 4 points or fewer, covering the spread in all three bowl games.  It's safe to say they are highly motivated to cash in that first bowl victory.

Eastern Michigan has been the king of one-score games under head coach Chris Creighton, which is why there's a ton of value getting them as +9.5 dogs.  Dating back to the middle of 2019, Eastern Michigan has 14 losses.  A whopping 10 of those have come by 8 points or fewer.  So they have lost just four of their last 26 games by more than 8 points to put it better.

This Eastern Michigan offense is never going to be out of the game.  They score 31.0 points per game on the season.  QB Ben Bryant is completing 68.8% of his passes for 2,921 yards with a 14-to-6 TD/INT ratio.  They will be opposed by a similar Liberty offense that averages 31.8 points per game on the season.

Eastern Michigan is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 road games following a blowout road loss by 21 points or more.  The Eagles are 14-2 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. good passing teams that average 8 or more yards per attempt.  Eastern Michigan is 20-7 ATS in its last 27 games following an ATS loss.  The Eagles are 23-9 ATS in their last 32 games following a SU loss.  Eastern Michigan is 28-13 ATS in its last 41 games as an underdog.  Take Eastern Michigan in the LendingTree Bowl.

20* Bowl GAME OF THE WEEK on UAB +7

I think UAB wants to be here more than BYU.  And I like the matchup for the Blazers.  BYU just completed a 10-2 season and knocked off several Pac-12 opponents along the way.  They feel like they deserve a better bowl game than the Independence Bowl in Shreveport, Louisiana.

I've actually been to a bowl game in Shreveport when Iowa State played last.  It's kind of a dump in and around the stadium.  No offense to anyone that lives there reading this writeup, but it's not the greatest destination.  BYU thought they had an outside shot of playing in a New Year's 6 Bowl.

It is a pretty short drive for UAB fans from Birmingham to Shreveport just over 6 hours.  I think it will be like a home game for the Blazers.  "I'm really proud of our selection to the bowl game, and man, what a great opponent we've got in BYU," Clark said on Monday. "I know our players are all going to be excited for the challenge ahead."

And the weather is going to help UAB keep this game close.  There's a 90% chance of precipitation Saturday with 15 MPH winds, too.  This game will mostly be played on the ground.  UAB prefers to run the football, averaging 177 rushing yards per game.  They should be able to run the ball on a BYU defense that gives up 151 rushing yards per game and 4.2 per carry.

BYU also likes to run the ball at 188 rushing yards per game.  But the strength of UAB's team is their front 7 defensively.  They give up just 105 rushing yards per game and 3.0 yards per carry this season.  In their last three games against pretty good rushing teams they held Marshall to 37 yards on 21 carries, UTSA to 52 yards on 34 carries and UTEP to 99 yards on 30 carries.

UAB is 6-0 ATS vs. good passing teams that average 250 or more yards per game this season.  BYU is 2-12 ATS in its last 14 games off two consecutive road wins.  The Blazers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. a team with a winning record.  BYU fans have come out and said they are less than thrilled to be playing UAB.  Meanwhile, it has been a different story for UAB fans and head coach Bill Clark and his players.  Roll with UAB in the Independence Bowl Saturday.

20* Toledo/Middle Tennessee Bowl Season Opener on OVER 49

Toledo is going to take care of this total mostly on their own and I'd lean to laying the points with them too.  But I feel better about the OVER 49.  The Rockets have the superior offense in this game that averages 34.2 points per game on the season and led the MAC in scoring.

Toledo has really been humming on offense of late.  The Rockets have scored 34 or more points in five consecutive games while averaging 43.2 points per game during this stretch.  I think they get to 34 or more in this game, which just means we need a couple touchdowns from Middle Tennessee to get the OVER.

Middle Tennessee has been much better on offense than they get credit for, especially since changing quarterbacks.  The Blue Raiders are putting up 29.8 points per game on the season.  They have scored 21 or more points in five of their last six games overall and probably only need to get to 21 at most to cash this OVER.

The Blue Raiders went 3-2 with starter Nicholas Vattiato at quarterback to close the season.  He is comlpeting 67.4% of his passes and only had one really bad game with five interceptions in a 48-21 loss to Western Kentucky, one of the best teams in C-USA.

Forecasts are calling for 81 degrees and mostly sunny during this game with only a 10% chance of precipitation and 15 MPH winds.  While the winds will be a little brisk, they won't be bad enough to affect this game much.  I think this total has dropped way too much from the opener of 54.5 and there's a ton of value on the OVER.

The OVER is 4-0 in Middle Tennessee's last four bowl games with combined scores of 58 or more points in all four.  Toledo is 6-0 OVER in its last six road games after scoring 37 points or more last game.  The Blue Raiders are 9-1 OVER in their last 10 road games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in two straight games.  The OVER is 4-0 in Rockets last four games overall.  These four trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the OVER today.  Bet the OVER in the Bahamas Bowl Friday.

20* Army/Navy CBS No-Brainer on Navy +7.5

Both teams will be motivated.  But I just think Navy will be the slightly more motivated team for a couple of different reasons.  First, this is their 'National Championship' game since they won't be going to a bowl game.  Secondly, the Midshipmen want revenge from a 15-0 loss to Army last season.

Navy played a much more difficult schedule than Army this season, which will work in its favor.  The Midshipmen played the 54th-toughest schedule.  Army played the 87th-toughest schedule and took advantage with an 8-3 campaign.

Navy was a much improved team in the second half of the season.  The Midshipmen went 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS in their final five games.  They took four-team playoff participant Cincinnati to the wire in a 20-27 loss as 29-point dogs.  They actually outgained Cincinnati by 37 yards in that contest.

They went on to upset Tulsa 20-17 as 12-point road dogs and outgained them by 8 yards.  Their only non-cover was a 6-34 loss at Notre Dame as 21-point dogs, and Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the country as well so that's understandable.  They took a very good ECU team to the wire in a 35-38 loss as 3.5-point dogs.  Then they crushed Tulsa 38-14 as 13.5-point favorites in their finale.  They are playing well enough to stay within a touchdown of Army and possibly pull off the upset.

Army played a much easier schedule of opposing defenses which is why its offensive numbers are better than Navy.  But these teams are pretty even defensively despite Navy playing the much tougher schedule of opposing offenses.  Navy gives up just 359.8 yards per game on the season, 132 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per carry.  Army allows 324.1 yards per game, 3.7 per carry and 104 rushing yards per game.  

Navy's defense is good enough to keep them in this game, and it's expected to be low scoring with a 34-point total, so getting over a touchdown here is a nice value.  The Midshipmen are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Navy Saturday.

15* Houston/Cincinnati AAC Championship ANNIHILATOR on Houston +10.5

Cincinnati has all the pressure in this game.  Win and they become the 1st Group of 5 program to make the four-team playoff.  Lose and they don't.  That is a lot to deal with, and I don't expect them to handle it well.  They no longer need style points either, so don't look for them to try and run it up if they get the opportunity.  They just need to win.

Houston has quietly reeled off 11 straight victories since a season-opening loss to Texas Tech.  The Cougars have been flying under the radar.  And I'm sure they feel disrespected here and ready to try and prove a point.  They will also be playing freely knowing they aren't going to the four-team playoff, win or lose.  Look for one of their best performances of the season.

These teams aren't that far off statistically.  Houston is outgaining teams by 132 yards per game behind a dominant defense that gives up just 290 yards per game.  Cincinnati is outgaining opponents by 128 yards per game with a dominant defense that gives up 302 yards per game.  This will be a defensive battle, and I think getting double-digits is a nice value in this instance.

Houston QB Clayton Tune is also quietly having a great season.  He ranks as the 3rd-best QB in the country according to pro football focus behind Alabama's Bryce Young and Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett.  Tune is completing 68.7% of his passes for 3,013 yards with a 26-to-8 TD/INT ratio.

Houston is 6-0 SU in true road games this season and outscoring opponents by a whopping 26.5 points per game.  The Cougars are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games as road underdogs.  Houston is 16-5 ATS in its last 21 games following an ATS loss.  The road team is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  Roll with Houston Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Total DOMINATOR on Appalachian State/Louisiana UNDER 53

Talk about familiarity.  Appalachian State and Louisiana have been battling for Sun Belt titles for the better part of the last five years.  This will be their 7th meeting since 2018 and the 3rd time in the last four years that they will be meeting in the Sun Belt Championship Game while playing twice in the same season.  

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  These teams have combined for 54 or fewer points in five of their last six meetings, and 49 points or fewer in four of those.  The UNDER is 5-1 in those six meetings.  Louisiana did beat Appalachian State 41-13 in their first meeting this season.  While their defense was dominant in holding the Mountaineers to 211 total yards, their offense wasn't as good as the 41 points showed.  They had several easy scores set up by four turnovers by the Mountaineers.  That's not going to happen again.

Both teams live off running the football and playing defense.  Appalachian State averages 41 rush attempts and 29 pass attempts per game, while Louisiana averages 39 rush attempts and 28 pass attempts.  Louisiana allows just 18.5 points  per game, 348.4 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play this season.  Appalachian State allows 18.9 points per game, 319.6 yards per game and 4.9 yards per play.

The UNDER is 14-2 in Rajin' Cajuns last 16 home games.  The UNDER is 9-0 in Louisiana's last nine home games vs. a team with a 58% completion percentage or better.  The UNDER is 36-15-1 in Rajin' Cajuns last 52 conference games.  The UNDER is 9-2 in Mountaineers last 11 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Take the UNDER in this game Saturday.

25* Conference Championship GAME OF THE YEAR on Kent State -3

It's a minor miracle Northern Illinois even made the MAC Championship Game this season.  They went 8-4 with seven wins by one score with the only exception being their victory over lowly FCS Maine.  That includes four wins by 2 points or fewer.

The numbers show the Huskies are no better than an average team to possibly below average.  They are getting outscored by 2.7 points per game on the season and outgained by 26.3 yards per game.  They have a hobbled QB in Rocky Lombardi who sat out the regular season finale in a 21-42 loss to Western Michigan in which they were outgained by 345 yards.

Kent State is one win away from its first MAC Championship since 1972 and second in school history.  The Golden Flashes have put themselves in this position by going 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with their lone loss at Central Michigan.  That includes their 52-47 win over Northern Illinois in their first meeting.

The Huskies racked up 681 total yards on this soft Northern Illinois defense in that first meeting.  It's a NIU defense that has just 14 sacks all season, so they get no pressure on opposing quarterbacks.  Dustin Crum threw for 322 yards and two touchdowns while also rushing for 72 yards and two scores in that first meeting.  The Golden Flashes rushed for 359 yards as a team.

Kent State is 6-0 ATS in its last six vs. poor defensive teams that allow 425 or more yards per game.  The Golden Flashes are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. poor defensive teams that allow 450 or more yards per game.  Northern Illinois is 3-12 ATS in its last 15 games as a neutral field underdog.  The Golden Flashes are 9-1 ATS in their last nine games after gaining more than 450 yards in their previous game.  Bet Kent State Saturday.

20* Oregon/Utah Pac-12 Championship No-Brainer on Utah -2.5

Utah has never won a Pac-12 Championship.  They have won the Pac-12 South now three of the last four years.  But they came up shot in their two title games to Washington in 2018 and Oregon in 2019.  The Utes will be highly motivated to hand Kyle Whittingham his first Pac-12 Championship this weekend.

That's why I'm not worried about any type of letdown that would occur from having already beaten Oregon 38-7 as 3-point favorites in their first meeting this season.  It will be more of the same here as Utah shuts down the Oregon rushing attack, forcing the inaccurate Anthony Brown to try and beat them through the air.

In that first meeting, Utah held Oregon to just 63 rushing yards on 23 attempts and 294 total yards overall.  The Utes did what they wanted to on the ground, rushing for 208 yards and gaining 386 total yards for the game.  They played a vanilla second half after taking a 28-0 lead or they could have won by more.

This Utah team has been a different animal since Cam Rising took over at quarterback.  They have won five straight and eight of their last nine games overall with all eight wins coming by 9 points or more.  They have outgained seven of those nine opponents with the only exceptions being -7 against USC and -13 against Oregon State.  

Rising has a 17-to-3 TD/INT ratio through the air, but his dual-threat ability has been what makes him tough to tame.  He has rushed for 346 yards and five scores while averaging 6.4 per carry.  In all honesty, these teams are pretty even outside of quarterback play.  Their season-long stats are about the same offensively with Utah having the slight edge on defense.  Rising over Brown, the edges on defense and special teams, and Whittingham over Cristobal makes Utah an easy choice as only a 2.5-point favorite.

Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. teams that complete 62% of their passes or better.  The Utes are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games after allowing 125 or fewer rushing yards in four straight games, and 34-13 ATS in their last 47 after allowing 125 or less in three straight.  The Ducks are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games following an ATS win.  Bet Utah Friday.

15* ACC PLAY OF THE DAY on Syracuse +13.5

Syracuse is 5-6 this season and needs one more win to get bowl eligible.  It's clear we will get their 'A' game Saturday as they will be max motivated to get to a bowl.  It will be a night game and a tremendous atmosphere with home-field advantage worth more than on any other normal week.

I question how motivated Pittsburgh will be for this one.  In fact, I expect something less than their 'A' game for sure, which is going to make it hard for them to win this game by two touchdowns or more to beat us.

The Panthers just clinched the Coastal Division title with their 48-38 win over Virginia last week.  They will be looking ahead to the ACC Championship Game next week, and they won't be fully focused on Syracuse.  They will be more worried about trying to keep everyone healthy for next week to try and win the ACC title.

Syracuse is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 games following two straight conference losses where they allowed 31 points or more.  The Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.  Their three home losses this season were all close by 3 to Clemson, by 3 to Wake Forest and by 10 to Rutgers.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (Syracuse) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Syracuse Saturday.

15* Wisconsin/Minnesota Big Ten ANNIHILATOR on Minnesota +7

Minnesota and Wisconsin match up very well.  They are two physical teams that run the football and rely on defense.  That is evident by this very low 39-point total.  So getting 7 points in what is expected to be a defensive battle is a very nice value here with the Gophers at home Saturday.

Minnesota just outgained Indiana by 173 yards in a 35-14 road win and outgained Iowa by 132 yards in a losing effort on the road in a game they deserved to win the week prior.  In fact, the Gophers have now outgained six straight Big Ten opponents coming into this game.  They are playing well enough to knock off Wisconsin, and stay within a score of them at the very least.

It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Badgers off seven consecutive victories.  But it's worth noting they were outgained by Nebraska by 54 yards last week in a fortunate 35-28 victory that kept their title hopes alive.  They should be favored in this game, but by 3 and not 7 points in my opinion.

Last year, Minnesota only lost 17-20 (OT) as a 10.5-point road dog at Wisconsin.  The Gophers outgained the Badgers in that game.  They get them at home this time around and will be revenge-minded.

Wisconsin is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Minnesota is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 conference games.  The Gophers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last seven eight games as underdogs.  The underdog is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings.  Minnesota is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games after a game where it committed zero turnovers.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Arizona +20.5

It's a terrible spot for Arizona State this week.  They just lost out on their chance to win the Pac-12 title with their 10-24 road loss as 3-point favorites at Oregon State last week.  And now they won't be that motivated to face a 1-10 Arizona team this week.  Not only do they have to win, they have to win by three touchdowns or more to beat us.

Arizona State managed just 10 points and 266 total yards against a bad Oregon State defense last week.  Injuries are mounting up on offense for the Sun Devils with two receivers and two tight ends out.  QB Jayden Daniels is not playing well with an 8-to-9 TD/INT ratio this season and his job will be even tougher this week.

The Arizona Wildcats are flying under the radar here late in the season because they are just 1-10 SU this season.  But they have been much more competitive than that record shows, and they certainly have not quit under first-year head coach Jedd Fisch.  They will be max motivated playing their biggest rivals here to close out the season as this game means more to them than it does the Sun Devils.

Arizona State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.  The Wildcats only lost by 5 as 17.5-point dogs to Washington, by 7 to USC as 21.5-point dogs, upset Cal by 7 as 7-point dogs, and only lost by 9 to Utah as 23.5-point dogs.  And Utah is one of the best teams in the conference.  If they're not it's Oregon, and Arizona actually outgained Oregon by 42 yards earlier this season.

In fact, the Wildcats haven't been outgained by more than 139 yards in any of their last nine games.  In their last nine games, the Wildcats are getting outgained by only 12.2 yards per game on average.  They have been much more competitive than their record suggests as stated before.

Arizona State is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 games as a favorite.  Take Arizona Saturday.

25* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR on Tulsa +6.5

Tulsa has clawed its way back to 5-6 by winning four of its last six games to get within one more victory of bowl eligibility.  The two losses came by 3 to Navy and by 8 to Cincinnati on the road in a game they nearly won outright.  They will capitalize on this opportunity to make a bowl by winning this game outright at SMU Saturday.

I question the motivation of the Mustangs.  They won't be going to the AAC Title game.  They are coming off a 14-48 loss to Cincinnati that was every bit the blowout that the final score showed.  They were outgained 199 to 544 by the Bearcats.  They have now gone 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall for a lackluster finish.  I see no reason they will want to win this game Saturday, either.

Tulsa is the better team despite having the worse record in my opinion.  They have played the tougher schedule and are outgaining opponents by 62 yards per game and 0.6 yards per play.  SMU has played the weaker schedule and is outgaining teams by 53 yards per game and 0.4 yards per play.

SMU was without leading receiver Danny Gray last week and his 49 catches for 803 yards and nine touchdowns this season.  He's questionable to return this week and chances are the Mustangs are going to sit him considering this game isn't that important.  

And I just think this SMU offense is overrated, managing 355 yards against Houston, 323 yards against Memphis and 199 yards against Cincinnati in three of their last four games.  Their defense is poor too giving up 419.1 yards per game and 6.0 per play.  Tulsa allows 378.1 yards per game and 5.5 per play this season to compare.

Tulsa is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games as an underdog.  The Golden Hurricane are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.  SMU is 4-20 ATS in its last 24 home games after getting outgained by 225 or more yards last game.  The Golden Hurricane are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. good offensive teams that score 37 or more points per game.  Don't hesitate to buy this to +7 while also sprinkling that money line.  Bet Tulsa Saturday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +32.5

Tennessee just clinched bowl eligibility last week with a win over South Alabama to get their 6th victory of the season.  I don't see them being that motivated to face Vanderbilt this weekend.  And not only are they being asked to win, they are 32.5-point favorites at that.

At 2-9 on the season, this game means a lot more to Vanderbilt as it will be their final game of the season against their rivals.  And that record has the Commodores undervalued here down the stretch.  They have gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall with three straight covers.

They only lost to South Carolina by 1 as 19-point underdogs.  They only lost to Missouri by 9 as 16.5-point underdogs.  They covered as 21.5-point dogs in a 17-point loss to Kentucky.  And last week was their most impressive performance yet.  They only lost by 14 as 35.5-point dogs at Ole Miss.  What was impressive about it was that they were only outgained by 16 yards by the Rebels.  

Their offense came to life under backup quarterback Mike Wright.  He led the Commodores to 454 total yards against a very good Ole Miss defense.  Wright threw for 241 yards, but it's his dual-threat ability that makes this Vanderbilt offense better.  He also rushed for 61 yards on 13 carries in that Ole Miss game.  And I think he can do enough to keep Vanderbilt within the number here against this mediocre Tennessee defense.

Vanderbilt is 25-9 ATS in its last 34 road games following a road loss.  The Commodores are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.  The Volunteers are 7-22-1 ATS in their last 30 games following a win by more than 20 points.  Tennessee is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games following a win.  The Volunteers are 16-35-1 ATS in their last 52 games after covering the spread in their previous game.

Tennessee hasn't won any of its last 17 meetings with Vanderbilt by more than 29 points.  That makes for a 17-0 system backing the Commodores pertaining to this 32.5-point spread.  Bet Vanderbilt Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oregon State +7

The Oregon Ducks suffered their dream crusher loss last week in a 38-7 setback at Utah.  Now they know they won't be going to the four-team playoff when they were in control of their own destiny if they won out having that head-to-head victory over Ohio State.  But none of that matters now.

I think the Ducks suffer a hangover from that defeat.  Now they face an upstart Oregon State Beavers team that is still alive to win the Pac-12 North.  The Beavers will be the more focused, motivated team here and I think we are getting tremendous value with them catching 7 points against the Ducks.

Oregon State is 7-4 this season with all four losses by 14 points or less.  They have been competitive in every game.  They are coming off a 24-10 win over Arizona State as 3-point underdogs.  And I think they have what it takes to hang with this Oregon team that gave up 208 rushing yards to Utah last week.

The Beavers should get their ground game going on offense as they do every week.  They average 230 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per carry this season.  Their defense has been solid as well, allowing 24.8 points per game and 377.0 yards per game, numbers very comparable to Oregon on both sides of the ball.

Oregon State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a road underdog.  The Beavers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game.  Oregon State is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Oregon is 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games.  The Ducks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games as favorites.  The road team is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings.  The Beavers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to Eugene.  Take Oregon State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Penn State -1

Michigan State suffered its dream crusher loss to Ohio State last week in a 56-7 blowout defeat.  Now the Spartans know they won't be making the four-team playoff or the Big Ten Championship Game.  I think they suffer a hangover from that defeat now that all of their dreams are gone.

Penn State has put the James Franklin rumors behind them as he just signed a contract extension.  I think we get a focused effort from the Nittany Lions, and the fact of the matter is they are the better team in this contest.  The numbers agree.

Penn State is averaging 381.5 yards per game on offense and allowing 333.7 yards per game on defense, outgaining teams by nearly 48 yards per game.  Michigan State is averaging 429.1 yards per game on offense and giving up 463.4 yards per game on defense, actually getting outgained by over 34 yards per game.  The Spartans are a fraudulent 9-2 this season, and they are dealing with a ton of injuries right now.

These teams have five common opponents this season.  Penn State is outgaining those five teams by 65.4 yards per game, while Michigan State is getting outgained by 86.2 yards per game by those same five opponents.  This shows that Penn State is the better team and it's not really even close.

The Nittany Lions are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall.  Penn State is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games as a favorite.  The Nittany Lions are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.  Penn State is 36-14-1 ATS in its last 51 games following a win.  The favorite is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings.  Roll with Penn State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday UPSET SHOCKER on Rice +4

Both of these teams are 3-8 this season, but I like the way that Rice has played to finish the season much more than that of Louisiana Tech.  And I think knowing we will get the 'A' game out of rice and less than that from Louisiana Tech will lead to an upset victory for the Owls at home here Saturday.

Rice upset UAB 30-24 as a 23.5-point road underdog.  They went on to lose to North Texas in OT despite outgaining them by 53 yards.  Then they lost at Charlotte in OT despite outgaining them by 119 yards.  They were only outgained by Western Kentucky by 83 yards in a 21-point loss that was much closer than the final score.  And WKU is one of the better Group of 5 teams in the country, same with UAB.  And last week they lost by 10 at UTEP, another solid 7-4 bowl team.

Louisiana Tech is 1-6 in its last seven games overall with its only win coming against Charlotte in a game it was outgained by 44 yards.  The Bulldogs lost outright to a terrible Southern Miss team by 16 as 15.5-point favorites last week, which is all you need to know about how they are currently playing and their mental state to close the season.  They have been outgained in five of their last six games overall as well.  This team is used to going to bowl games under Skip Holtz, and with that off the table they have struggled to find motivation down the stretch.

The Bulldogs are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games games following a loss.  Rice is 30-9 ATS in its last 39 games as a home underdog of 7 points or less.  Roll with Rice Saturday.

15* Florida State/Florida ESPN Early ANNIHILATOR on Florida State +3

Mike Norvell has done a great job of keeping this Florida State team together this season after an 0-4 start.  The Seminoles have gone 5-2 since with their only losses to Clemson and NC State.  That includes upset road wins over North Carolina and Boston College, as well as an upset home win over Miami.

Now the Seminoles sit at 5-6 and one win away from bowl eligibility.  They definitely want it, and I know we will get their 'A' game here against their rivals in Florida.  I don't think the same can be said for their opponent and I don't expect anything close to their 'A' game.

Florida is 1-4 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall and just fired head coach Dan Mullen.  The Gators are coming off an upset loss to Missouri.  They were also upset by 23 as 20.5-point favorites against South Carolina and by 7 as 12.5-point favorites against LSU.  Their only win during this stretch was even a concern as they gave up 52 points as a 31.5-point favorite against Samford.   At 5-6, they just want their season to be over, especially with the distractions about who their next head coach will be.

Florida is 5-15 ATS in its last 20 home games after a loss by 6 points or less.  The Seminoles are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a losing record.  The Gators are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. a team with a losing record.  Florida is 0-5 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  Take Florida State Saturday.

15* Cincinnati/East Carolina AAC ANNIHILATOR on East Carolina +14

I think Cincinnati breathes a sigh of relief this week just enough to fail to cover this 14-point spread.  They became the first Group of 5 team to be ranked in the Top 4 of the playoff rankings in the eight years since this system came out.  They finally got recognized after their dominant win over SMU last week, and I think they are overvalued this week as a result.

The fact remains, all the pressure is on Cincinnati here, and that's a lot to deal with.  They hadn't handled it very well in the several weeks prior to SMU, and I think bettors are quickly forgetting that.  And East Carolina is playing too good right now to be catching two touchdowns.  This is the 'National Championship' game for the Pirates with a chance to knock off unbeaten Cincinnati at home.

The Bearcats went 0-4 ATS in their previous four games prior to beating SMU.  They only beat Navy by 7 as 28.5-point favorites and were actually outgained by 37 yards by the Midshipmen.  They needed a late surge to beat Tulane by 19 as a 27.5-point favorite and only outgained them by 71 yards.  They were outgained by 56 yards in an 8-point win over Tulsa as a 22.5-point favorite.  And they got a late INT return TD to win by 17 over South Florida as a 24.5-point favorite.

East Carolina hasn't lost by more than 14 points all season.  They sit at 7-4 this season so they've already clinched a bowl berth, so they will be kind of free rolling here and playing relaxed football.  Three of their four losses have come by 7 points or less with a 3-point loss to South Carolina, a 4-point loss at UCF and a 7-point loss at Houston.  The 14-point loss was in the opener against Appalachian State.

The Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They beat Tulane by 23, South Florida by 15, Temple by 41, upset Memphis on the road and beat Navy by 3 as a 3.5-point favorite.  That was a huge letdown spot against Navy and they still handled their business.  They had just clinched bowl eligibility the previous week with a win at Memphis.  And they had Cincinnati on deck, so it was a sandwich spot.  So to avoid the upset there against Navy showed a lot about their character.

Not only has East Carolina been a covering machine, they have also dominated the stats here down the stretch.  Indeed, the Pirates have now outgained all seven opponents during this 6-1 ATS stretch.  The last three have been mighty impressive as they outgained Navy by 181 yards, Memphis by 161 yards and Temple by 276 yards.  They also outgained Houston by 109 yards in a road loss in OT, and Houston is nearly as good as Cincinnati.

The Bearcats are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games as road favorites.  The Pirates are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.  East Carolina is 8-1 ATS in its last nine conference games.  The home team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.  The Pirates are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.  Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in its last six games after allowing 125 or fewer passing yards in its previous game.  Roll with East Carolina Friday.

20* Conference USA GAME OF THE MONTH on UTEP +13.5

This is the ultimate flat spot for the UAB Blazers.  They played unbeaten UTSA last week with a trip to the Conference USA Championship Game on the line.  They gave up a touchdown with 3 seconds left to lose, 31-34 in heartbreaking fashion.  I don't think they'll be able to get back up off the mat in time to beat UTEP by 14-plus points to cover this number now.

Both of these teams are 7-4 this season, but it's UAB that gets the respect while UTEP has been flying under the radar all season.  The Miners got off to a 6-1 start this season before losing three straight, but two of those losses were by exactly 3 points.  They rebounded nicely last week with a 38-28 home win over Rice.  Keep in mind UAB was upset by Rice recently.  And now the Miners want to put a stamp on their season and beat UAB in the finale.  They will be the more motivated team here.

UTEP boasts a balanced offense that averages 252 passing yards per game and 9.1 per attempt, and 148 rushing yards per game.  They also boast an underrated defense that allows 23.2 points per game, 339.9 yards per game and 5.1 yards per play.  Their numbers are very similar to that of UAB, which has a suspect offense at 389.5 yards per game on the season.  That offense makes it hard for the Blazers to cover these big numbers, especially given the terrible spot for them today.

Plays on underdogs of 10.5 to 21 points (UTEP) - after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games against an opponent that covered the spread in five or six of their last seven games are 34-9 (79.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Blazers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win.  Take UTEP Friday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Eastern Michigan +9

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Central Michigan.  The Chippewas have gone 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three games overall.  They made a run to close the season to try and win the MAC West.  But Northern Illinois sealed the West with a win last week in overtime against Buffalo.

Now this is a huge letdown spot for the Chippewas as the wind has been lifted from beneath their sails.  They are no longer playing for a championship, and they already have a bowl bid locked up.  I don't expect them to be nearly as motivated for this game as they would have been with a trip to the MAC Championship on the line.

Eastern Michigan has been grossly underrated for years, including this season.  The Eagles sit at 7-4 this season as well.  Amazingly, they have just one loss by more than 8 points, which came on the road at Wisconsin in non-conference play.  That's understandable as Wisconsin is one of the best teams in the country.

Eastern Michigan has pulled several upsets this season.  Most recently, they went into Toledo and won 52-49 as 9-point dogs, while also knocking off a very good Western Michigan team 22-21 as 5-point home dogs.  Whoever wins this game Friday, I expect it to be decided by one score, so there's value here with the Eagles catching 9 points.

Chris Creighton is a perfect 8-0 ATS as a road underdog of 7.5 to 14 points as the coach of Eastern Michigan.  Creighton is 9-1 ATS in road games vs. good offensive teams that score 31 or more points per game at EMU.  The Eagles are 25-9 ATS in their last 34 road games, including 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games as road underdogs.  Bet Eastern Michigan Friday.

15* Ole Miss/Mississippi State ESPN ANNIHILATOR on Ole Miss +1.5

The Ole Miss Rebels are 9-2 this season and playing for a New Year's 6 Bowl ranked 9th in the latest playoff rankings.  So anyone that questions their motivation here against a rival in Mississippi State is out of their minds.  These players want this game more than any other game this season, so any concerns about Lane Kiffin possibly taking another job are unwarranted.  That will show up in their bowl game if it does at all.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on Mississippi State, which has gone 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall.  Now the unranked Bulldogs are actually favored over the 9th-ranked Rebels.  Many like to back these unranked favorites against ranked teams blindly.  But this isn't the spot for it as Ole Miss is simply the better team.

The four wins during this stretch have come against Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Auburn and Tennessee State.  They lost to the best team they faced in Arkansas.  And it's worth noting Ole Miss beat Arkansas, and gave Alabama a much better game than Mississippi State, which lost 49-9 to Alabama.  Ole Miss beat LSU by 14 while Mississippi State lost to LSU.

While the Rebels get a lot of hype and deservedly so for Matt Corral and the offense that averaged 517.5 yards per game, it's the improvement on defense that has made the difference for the Rebels this season.  They give up just 25.4 points per game on the season.  They allow 5.5 yards per play, which is the same as Mississippi State, which allows 5.5 yards per play as well but is perceived to be the better defense.

There's no question Ole Miss has the better offense.  They average 36.4 points, 517.5 yards per game and 6.7 yards per play.  Mississippi State is improved offensively this year, but still far behind Ole Miss as 31.8 points, 452.3 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play.  Ole Miss is outgaining teams by 1.2 yards per play, while Mississippi State is only outgaining opponents by 0.6 yards per play.  Ole Miss only averages 0.7 turnovers per game on offense, while Mississippi State gives it away 1.4 times per game.  The Rebels force 1.8 turnovers per game, while the Bulldogs force 1.4 turnovers per game.

Home-field advantage has meant nothing in this series.  The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.  The underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.  Roll with Ole Miss Thursday.

20* Western Michigan/NIU ESPNU No-Brainer on Western Michigan -3

Northern Illinois just clinched a spot in the MAC Championship Game with their 33-27 (OT) win over Buffalo last week.  Now this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Huskies, who won't care about winning this game and will just be looking to stay healthy going into the title game next week.

Western Michigan would love to beat this team to close out the regular season and will be the more motivated team.  And I'm not so sure the Broncos aren't the better team, too.  But I'm definitely playing them because of the spot, which screams letdown for the Huskies.

The numbers show the Broncos are the better team, though.  Western Michigan is outgaining teams by 106.0 yards per game.  They are averaging 448.2 yards per game on offense and giving up 342.5 yards per game on defense.  The Broncos are clearly better than their 6-5 record would indicate.

Northern Illinois is only outgaining teams by 2.6 yards per game, averaging 439.1 yards per game on offense and giving up 436.5 yards per game on defense.  They have been one of the most lucky teams in the country winning so many close games to get to 8-3 this season.  Seven of their eight wins have come by one score with the lone exception being against FCS Maine.

Western Michigan is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 road games following three or more consecutive ATS losses.  Northern Illinois is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Western Michigan Tuesday.

15* Oregon/Utah ABC ANNIHILATOR on Utah -3

Utah is a one-way team for me right now.  I'm either backing them or passing.  Kyle Whittingham has this team playing up to its potential now after a slow start to the season.  The Utes are 6-1 in their last seven games overall.

They have one of the best home-field advantages in the country.  They are 4-0 at home this season with all four wins by double-digits.  And this will be a night game at 7:30 EST at Rice-Eccles Stadium.  That makes it one of the best atmospheres in all of college football.  Not to mention the Utes would clinch a spot in the Pac-12 Championship with a win, so they have a lot to play for.

I haven't been a big Oregon believer all season.  They seem to just keep escaping with wins ever since that victory over Ohio State.  I think their run ends here Saturday against the best team in the Pac-12 in my opinion in Utah.  The Utes definitely have the better quarterback.  I bet Whittingham wishes he started Cameron Rising over Charlie Brewer from the start.

Rising has responded with a 14-to-2 TD/INT ratio.  His dual-threat ability has been the key to this offense, though.  Rising has rushed for 321 yards and 4 touchdowns while averaging 7.1 per carry.  Utah has scored 34 or more points in 6 consecutive games now with Rising at the helm.

Utah is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Ducks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as road underdogs.  Oregon is 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an ATS win.  The Utes are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 conference games.

Plays on home teams (Utah) - after three or more consecutive wins against an opponent that's off five or more consecutive wins are 29-7 (80.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Roll with Utah Saturday.

15* SEC PLAY OF THE DAY on Vanderbilt +36.5

The 2-8 record for Vanderbilt has the Commodores undervalued here down the stretch.  They have gone 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall.  They only lost by 1 at South Carolina as 19-point dogs, by 9 to Missouri as 16.5-point dogs and by 17 to Kentucky as 21.5-point dogs.

Now the Commodores are looking forward to this opportunity to try and knock off Ole Miss.  Meanwhile, the Rebels won't be up for this game at all.  They are coming off their huge win over Texas A&M last week, and now they have an even bigger game on deck Thursday in the Egg Bowl against their biggest rivals in Mississippi State.  

That makes this a sandwich spot.  The Rebels won't be excited to face Vanderbilt, and they will be looking ahead to that game against Mississippi State.  Since it's on Thanksgiving on a short week, they just want to try and go into that game healthy and fresh.  Look for them to rest starters in the second half like they did against Liberty if it comes down to it.  This is a tired Rebels team as it is playing for an 8th consecutive week.

Vanderbilt is the much fresher team.  They had a bye prior to Kentucky last week, which allowed them to cover that number and only lose by 17.  They should still be fresh for this one, which is key going up against a team like Ole Miss that plays with tempo.

The Commodores are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.  Vanderbilt is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 trips to Ole Miss.  The Commodores are 21-9 ATS in their last 30 road games following three or more consecutive losses.  Take Vanderbilt Saturday.