25* CFB Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR on Tennessee +21

Oklahoma (2-0) has opened with a few cupcakes in non-conference play to start the season. It beat Louisiana Tech 48-16 in its opener as a 34-point favorite, then came back with a resounding 52-7 road victory over Tulsa as a 24-point favorite last week.

Tennessee (2-0) looked real good in dismantling Utah State by a final of 38-7 as only a 3-point home favorite in its opener. It came back last week and topped Arkansas State 34-19 as a 16-point favorite. Now, it steps out of Knoxville for its first road game of the season.

I was real big on Tennessee coming into the season, and I have seen nothing to change my opinion that this is one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014. Butch Jones has put together back-to-back tremendous recruiting classes that rank right up there with some of the elite recruiting teams in the SEC. That appears to already be paying off in the early going in 2014.

The Volunteers are getting solid production from their offense, averaging 36.0 points and 399.0 yards per game thus far. Justin Worley is completing 64.5 percent of his passes for 520 yards with five touchdowns and one interception. He has some real playmakers outside in Marquez North and Von Pearson, who have combined for 15 receptions, 204 yards and three touchdowns. Jalen Hurd and Marlin Lane Jr. form a nice 1-2 punch in the backfield.

Utah State and Arkansas State are no pushovers. The Aggies won 10 games and played in the MWC Title Game last year, while the Red Wolves won at least a share of the Sun Belt Title for a third straight season in 2013. I have been really impressed with this improved, athletic Tennessee defense in these two games. It has held those two teams to averages of 13.0 points and 287.5 total yards per game.

I had Oklahoma pegged as overvalued coming into the season after it beat Alabama in the BCS Sugar Bowl last year. The Crimson Tide were not up for that game at all. Oklahoma should not be this big of a favorite against an SEC team that is a sleeper to win the SEC East this season.

The Sooners have looked solid in wins over Louisiana Tech and Tulsa, but those two teams are inferior to the two that Tennessee has faced.  Louisiana Tech went just 4-8 last season and lost four times to teams that finished with losing records, while its four wins were against terrible competition.  Tulsa went just 3-9 last year as well.

Asking the Sooners to win by more than three touchdowns to beat us is simply asking too much. Oklahoma is 1-8 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last three seasons. The Sooners are 18-42 ATS in their last 60 games after allowing 17 points or less in two straight games. Tennessee is 40-22 ATS in its last 62 road games after one or more consecutive ATS losses. The Sooners are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. SEC opponents.  Bet Tennessee Saturday.

20* CFB Rivalry GAME OF THE WEEK on Purdue +28

Notre Dame (2-0) couldn’t have looked more impressive in the early going. It beat Rice 48-17 at home as a 19.5-point favorite to open the season. Then, it shut out Michigan 31-0 as a 4-point favorite last week. That was the first time the Wolverines had been shut out since 1984.

Purdue (1-1) has opened the season with a pair of MAC teams. It beat Western Michigan 43-34 as a 7-point home favorite in its opener. Then, it fell to a better Central Michigan squad by a final of 17-38 as a 3-point home favorite.

The Fighting Irish are in a massive letdown spot here. They are coming off that huge win over Michigan last week, and it’s simply going to be tough to come back and give the kind of effort they gave last week en route to a 31-0 triumph. Meanwhile, the betting public has seen how impressive this team has looked, while they are not big on Purdue after the loss to Central Michigan last week. That has created some additional line value here on the Boilermakers.

Each of the last two years Notre Dame was expected to blow out Purdue and it did not. It won 20-17 as a 14-point home favorite in 2012, and then 31-24 as an 18-point road favorite in 2013. Four of the last five meetings in this series were decided by 11 points or less with Purdue going 4-1 ATS in those five contests. The Boilermakers just always seem to play the Irish tough, and I look for that to be the case again in 2014.

Purdue’s 17-38 loss to Central Michigan last week was nowhere near as big of a blowout as the final score would indicate. The Boilermakers were only outgained 326-333 for the game, but they gave it away by committing three turnovers.

Conversely, Notre Dame’s 31-0 win over Michigan was nowhere near the blowout it appeared. The Fighting Irish were actually outgained 280-289 for the game, but they were gifted four turnovers by the Wolverines.  The final score of that game should not have been 31-0 with only 280 yards of total offense for the Irish.

Notre Dame is 0-7 ATS off two consecutive home wins by 14 points or more since 1992. The Fighting Irish are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 21.5 to 31 points. The Boilermakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit loss at home.  Take Purdue Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Miami (Ohio) +33.5

The Michigan Wolverines will suffer a hangover from their embarrassing 31-0 loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish last week.  They were shut out for the first time since 1984.  A win over Miami (Ohio) is not going to mean anything to people judging them.  They know their next chance to make an impression comes next week against Utah and then in Big Ten play.  That's why they won't be motivated to face the Redhawks.

Meanwhile, this is like the Super Bowl for Miami (Ohio).  They would like to take a page out of Akron's book, which went into Michigan as a 37-point underdog and arguably should have pulled off the upset last year.  The Zips lost by a final of 24-28.  Just like Akron last year, this is a Miami (Ohio) team coming off a disastrous season, but one that is vastly improved over 2013.

Indeed, the Redhawks went 0-12 last year and were rarely competitive.  However, they now have 15 starters back in 2014 and are in Chuck Martin's first year on the job.  I have actually been very impressed with what I have seen from this team despite the fact that they are 0-2 thus far.  They have shown me enough to know that they can stay within five touchdowns of Michigan on the road Saturday.

Marshall is a team that many expect to go 12-0 this season.  Well, Miami (Ohio) only lost to Marshall 27-42 at home as a 24-point underdog in its opener.  This was even a 27-35 game with just over two minutes remaining in the 4th quarter before Marshall iced it with a touchdown.  In fact, the Redhawks were only outgained 418-432 for the game.  Putting up 418 yards against this solid Marshall defense is no joking matter.

Obviously, a 10-17 home loss to Eastern Kentucky as a 6-point favorite last week is concerning.  However, a closer look into the box score shows that the Redhawks should have won that game, and won it running away.  They outgained Eastern Kentucky 419-280 for the game, but they let the Colonels in it by committing six turnovers.  This Miami offense is averaging 418.5 yards per game through two games to really show its improvement.

Teams with 5-plus turnovers the previous week who are on the road the next week have covered the spread 64.3% of the time since 1989.  Michigan is 22-43 ATS after a game where it committed 3 or more turnovers since 1992.  The Redhawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.  The Wolverines are 1-4 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Roll with Miami (Ohio) Saturday.

15* Arkansas/Texas Tech SEC vs. Big 12 No-Brainer on Arkansas +1

Texas Tech (2-0) has survived a couple of scares already in the early going. It beat Central Arkansas 42-35 as a 34-point home favorite in its opener. Then, it went into UTEP and came away with a 30-26 road victory as a 21-point favorite last week.

Arkansas (1-1) fought tough against Auburn in its opener before being blown out in the second half and losing 21-45 as a 17-point road underdog. The Razorbacks would take out their frustration last week, winning 73-7 at home over Nicholls State as a 41.5-point favorite.

I’m just not real big on the Red Raiders this year. They haven’t done anything in the first two games to change my opinion.  In fact, they have validated it despite their 2-0 start. They do have 13 starters back this season, including nine on offense, but their four starters back on defense are what really concern me. They haven’t been able to slow down Central Arkansas and UTEP in the first two games, and I look for Arkansas to run wild on them Saturday.

The Red Raiders gave up 178 rushing yards and 406 total yards to Central Arkansas in their 7-point opening victory as a 34-point favorite. Then, they gave up 277 rushing yards to UTEP and were fortunate to come away with a 4-point victory as they needed a late score to take the lead. So, Texas Tech has allowed an average of 227 rushing yards per game through its first two contests.

Arkansas thrives behind a rushing attack that will be one of the best in the country this season. This is a team that returns 14 starters after only having 10 back last year and enter Year Two in Bret Bielema's system. That includes the top two returning rushers in Alex Collins (1,026 yards, 4 TD) and Jonathan Williams (900 yards, 4 TD). The Razorbacks have averaged 324 rushing yards per game and 9.4 per carry through their first two games this season.

The Razorbacks are 33-17 ATS in their last 50 games after scoring 42 points or more last game. Arkansas is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Big 12 opponents. The Red Raiders are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall. Texas Tech is 1-5 ATS in its last six home games. I simply love the match-up with the Razorbacks’ rushing attack against the Red Raiders’ porous run defense.  Roll with Arkansas Saturday.

15* Louisville/Virginia ACC GAME OF THE WEEK on Virginia +7

Virginia is a team I have pegged as one of the most improved in the country this season.  I have seen nothing to change my opinion on the Cavaliers yet.  Head coach Mike London is fighting for his job this year.  He continues to put together tremendous recruiting classes, but has gotten few results.  With 17 starters back this year, this is clearly his best team yet.

That was on display in the season opener as Virginia lost at home to UCLA 20-28 as a 19-point underdog.  However, the Cavaliers should have never lost that game because they gave up three defensive touchdowns.  They limited a high-powered UCLA offense to just 358 total yards, while racking up 386 yards of offense themselves.  The Bruins were one of the favorites to make the four-team playoff this year, so that performance shows you what this Virginia team is capable of.

Yes, Virginia was fortunate to beat Richmond in blowout fashion as that game was a lost closer than the final of 45-13 would indicate.  They won the turnover battle 7-2 to aid their cause.  Still, the Cavaliers were only 14.5-point favorites int hat game, and they won by 32 points.  That is an in-state rivalry game that can sometimes be closer than it should be, and Virginia really took it to them.

Louisville is overvalued right now due to back-to-back blowout home wins.  It is getting too much respect for its 31-13 home victory over Miami.  Sure, the defense looked solid in that contest, but I honestly believe that Miami is nowhere near as good as they get credit for.  Brad Kaaya is a terrible quarterback, and he could do nothing against Louisville's defense.  Keep in mind that Kaaya is a freshman who was playing in his first game as well.  Look for the Cardinals to struggle in their first road game of the season against the improved Cavaliers.

Plays against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (LOUISVILLE) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with 3 or more straight wins are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  The Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last six games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.  The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Bet Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Maryland -3

The Maryland Terrapins should be a much heavier favorite Saturday against the West Virginia Mountaineers.  I believe WVU's close loss to Alabama has it overvalued right now, while Maryland's close win at South Florida last week has it undervalued.  It's the perfect storm, and thus oddsmakers are giving us a gift with the Terrapins as only 3-point home favorites here.

Maryland has been arguably the most unlucky team in the country when it has come to injuries over the last three seasons under Randy Edsall.  Finally, in his 4th year, he has everyone healthy.  This team made a bowl game last year with only 11 starters back and all the injuries, and now they have 17 starters back and are a sleeper in the Big Ten.

CJ Brown is one of the most underrated dual-threat quarterbacks in the country, and he has one of the best WR duos in the land in Stefon Diggs and Deon Long.  This team committed six turnovers last week, yet still found a way to beat South Florida 24-17 on the road.  Obviously, it should have been a bigger blowout, but the fact that they won with six turnovers is impressive in and of itself.

West Virginia went just 4-8 last season and lost two the two worst teams in the Big 12 in Kansas and Iowa State.  Sure, this team is expected to be improved this year, but not enough to justify this 3-point spread.  They played an Alabama team that had questions at quarterback in their opener, and the Crimson Tide still racked up 538 yards in their 33-23 win over WVU that was a bigger blowout than the final score would indicate.

Maryland had lost seven straight to West Virginia prior to last year's 37-0 victory on a neutral field.  This game was over at halftime as the Terrapins took a 30-0 lead into the break before calling off the dogs in the second half.  The Terrapins held the Mountaineers to just 175 total yards of offense while forcing six turnovers.  They will be just as good if not better on D in 2014 with nine starters and 13 of their top 15 tacklers back.

Edsall is 31-16 ATS after a game where they committed 3 or more turnovers in all games he has coached.  The Mountaineers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.  West Virginia is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.  Take Maryland Saturday.

20* Baylor/Buffalo ESPN Friday No-Brainer on Baylor -34.5

Baylor (2-0) has gotten off to another dominant start in 2014. It has managed to go 2-0 against the spread with back-to-back home wins over SMU (45-0) as a 31.5-point favorite and Northwestern State (70-6) as a 47-point favorite.

Buffalo (1-1) has played in a couple of nail biters to open the season. It only beat Duquesne (38-28) as a 28.5-point home favorite in its opener. It then went on the road and lost to Army (39-47) as a 3-point underdog.

Oddsmakers simply cannot set the spreads high enough for the Bears. They are the new Oregon of college football. They somehow still do not get the respect they deserve despite being a clear contender to make the four-team playoff. Art Briles led them to a Big 12 Title last year with an 11-2 season. He has been burning up the recruiting trails, and this year’s team is every bit as good as the one he fielded last year.

This team beat Northwestern State 70-6 last week without starting QB Bryce Petty and top receiver Antwan Goodley. They racked up 720 yards of offense in the win. Backup Seth Russell went 16 of 25 passing for 438 yards and five touchdowns. Freshman KD Cannon caught six balls for 223 yards and three scores. Baylor has so much depth that it’s simply “next man up”.  However, Petty is expected to return this week, while Goodley is doubtful.

Buffalo is a team that I am really down on this year. It has shown me nothing thus far to change my mind. The Bulls actually made a bowl game last year with an 8-5 record, but after having 16 returning starters, they now only have 11 back this year. They lose two key players to the NFL in Khalil Mack (100 tackles, 10.5 sacks, 3 INT) and Branden Oliver (1,535  rushing yards, 15 TD). They are going to take a major step back this season.

That effort against Duquesne in their opener just showed how much trouble the Bulls are in this season. They actually trailed Duquesne 24-28 early in the fourth quarter. They allowed 322 passing yards and three touchdowns to quarterback Dillon Buechel. They only outgained Duquesne 472-373 for the game as well. They were a 28.5-point favorite and won by just 10.

Last year, Baylor beat Buffalo 70-13. It outgained the Bulls 781-363 for the game. Petty and Russell combined for 452 passing yards and three touchdowns, while Baylor rushed for 329 yards as a team.  I expect a very similar result in the rematch considering the Bears are just as strong as they were last year, while the Bulls clearly are not.

Plays on road favorites of 14.5 or more points (BAYLOR) – after 2 straight wins by 28 or more points against opponent after trailing in their previous game by 17 or more points at the half are 22-3 (88%) ATS since 1992. The Bears are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 games overall. The Bulls are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 vs. a team with a winning record. Buffalo is 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Baylor Friday.

20* Houston/BYU ESPN Thursday No-Brainer on Houston +19

I was big on BYU coming into the season and a little low on Houston.  I predicted BYU to win 10 games this year and still think they will.  I had Houston winning 9 games but regressing a little overall because of finishing +25 in turnover differential last year.

Well, BYU was certainly undervalued coming into the year as it has gone 2-0 SU & 2-0 ATS through its first two games with blowout wins over UConn (35-10) and Texas (41-7).  Houston, meanwhile, was overvalued.  It has gone 1-1 SU & 0-2 ATS with a loss to UTSA (7-27) and a win over Grambling (47-0) as a 49.5-point favorite.

Now, there is a ton of value to be had with backing Houston because the betting public is drooling over BYU after two straight blowout wins and covers.  The betting public is off of Houston after an 0-2 ATS start.  This has forced the oddsmakers to set the number tonight much higher than it should be.

Keep in mind that BYU has beaten two teams that had terrible quarterback play to aid their cause.  UConn is clearly an awful team this year, and Texas is down again, especially without QB David Ash, who missed the BYU game with a concussion.  That also makes this a bit of a letdown spot for BYU off such a big road win over the Longhorns.

Houston gave away the game to UTSA by committing six turnovers. It actually held the roadrunners to 263 total yards in the loss. You have to remember that this Houston team came very close to winning the American Athletic last season. It went 8-4 during the regular season with all four losses coming by 7 points or less. Those losses came to some very good teams in BYU (46-47), UCF (14-19), Louisville (13-20) and Cincinnati (17-24).

With 17 starters back, this Houston team is a real contender to win the AAC. All of these players will be out for revenge from that 1-point loss to the Cougars last season. John O’Korn, who completed 29 of 45 passes for 363 yards and three touchdowns in the loss, is back as the starting quarterback this year. Also back is Daniel Spencer and Deonte Greenberry at receiver. These two combined for 18 receptions, 254 yards and three touchdowns in that loss to BYU.

BYU is 7-26 ATS in its last 33 games following a two-game road trip. BYU is 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games off two or more consecutive road wins. Plays against home favorites (BYU) – after allowing 17 points or less in 2 straight games against opponent after leading in their previous game by 24 or more points at the half are 32-9 (78%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Houston is 7-0 ATS in its last seven road games.  Take Houston Thursday.

15* LA Tech/North Texas Conference USA ANNIHILATOR on Louisiana Tech +4

While both teams blew out the opposition last week, I clearly come away more impressed with Louisiana Tech’s performance than that of North Texas. The Bulldogs were a 15.5-point road underdog to a very good Louisiana team that is expected to win the Sun Belt this year. They won 48-20 in dominant fashion, outgaining the Rajin’ Cajuns 533-415 in the process.

The Bulldogs finally have a solid team under second-year head coach Skip Holtz. He only had seven starters back last year during a 4-8 campaign, and now he has 13 back in 2013. He also adds in Iowa transfer Cody Sokol at quarterback. He threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns against Louisiana. Also, Kenneth Dixon is one of the most underrated running backs in the country. He rushed for 184 yards and two touchdowns on only 12 carries against the Rajin’ Cajuns.

I am way down on North Texas this year as this is a rebuilding year for Dan McCarney. He got the Mean Green to a bowl game last year for the first time since 2004, but after having 17 starters back in 2013, they only have nine starters back this year. They only gained 94 total yards in the 7-38 loss to Texas. Their 43-6 win over SMU was also closer than the final score would indicate. They only gained 353 yards of total offense in the win, but won the turnover battle 5-0, which was the difference.

Last year, North Texas did beat an inexperienced Louisiana Tech team 28-13. However, it scored 28 unanswered points in a game that was much closer than the final score showed. In fact, the Bulldogs outgained the Mean Green 404-386 for the game, which is saying something considering how down they were last year, while the Mean Green were extremely experienced. They lost the turnover battle 3-1, which proved to be the difference. The Mean Green were also aided by a defensive touchdown.  It's revenge time this year for the Bulldogs.

The Bulldogs are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games. Louisiana Tech is 14-5-1 ATS its last 20 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in its previous game. North Texas is 6-22 ATS in its last 28 games after a game where it committed no turnovers.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Thursday.

20* CFB Saturday Bounce-Back BLOWOUT on South Carolina -15

This line is a complete overreaction from South Carolina getting destroyed by Texas A&M at home by a final of 28-52.  The Aggies were clearly better than people believed they would be, but obviously the Gamecocks weren't ready for what they say.  That was a tough game to prepare for because the Aggies have one of the best offensive minds in all of college football in Kevin Sumlin.  They will be much more prepared for East Carolina, and they'll be hungry to bounce back with a blowout victory.

I still look for South Carolina to compete for an SEC East Title this year.  It has the talent to do so with 14 returning starters from a team that went 11-2 last year, which was the third straight season that Steve Spurrier has led this team to an 11-2 campaign.  This team has been on the brink of winning the SEC each of the last three years, and that doesn't change in 2014 after just one poor performance.

East Carolina is the team that is in rebuilding mode this year.  It has just nine returning starters in all.  It loses leading rusher Vintavious Cooper (1,193 yards, 13 TD) as well as three starters along the offensive line.  The Pirates only have 38 career starts returning along the O-line, so I look for South Carolina's athletes up front to dominate the line of scrimmage.  They only have four starters returning on defense and lose eight of their top 12 tacklers from a year ago.

The last time these teams played in 2012, South Carolina rolled to a 48-10 home victory as a 21-point favorite.  Dylan Thompson, who is now the starting quarterback for the Gamecocks, actually started in that game as a sophomore.  He threw for 330 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Gamecocks to a dominant victory.  They racked up 528 yards of total offense in the win and led 35-0 late into the 3rd quarter.

Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (S CAROLINA) - solid team from last season - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game, after gaining 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Plays on favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (S CAROLINA) - good offensive team from last season - scored 31 or more points/game, in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences are 28-7 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take South Carolina Saturday.

25* Michigan State/Oregon Top-10 GAME OF THE YEAR on Michigan State +13.5

Michigan State had the top defense in the entire country last year.  It is the type of defense that will give Oregon fits, just like Stanford has the last two years.  Indeed, the Cardinal held the Ducks to 17 points in 2012 and 20 points in 2013.  The Spartans are fully capable of keeping this high-powered Ducks' offense in check, and that's precisely what I expect to happen Saturday.

I also like the match-up of Michigan State's offense against Oregon's defense.  The Spartans brought back seven starters on offense, including QB Connor Cook and RB Jeremy Langford, who rushed for 1,422 yards and 18 touchdowns last year.  Cook saved his best two performances for last, throwing for a combined 636 yards and five touchdowns in the wins over Ohio State and Stanford in the Big Ten Championship and Rose Bowl, respectively.

Oregon's defense is its biggest weakness.  It only brings back five starters on defense and loses three of its top five tacklers.  I look for the Spartans to control this game with their ground attack, and for Cook to continue to play his best on the biggest of stages.  He completed 12 of 13 passes for 285 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-7 win over Jacksonville State in the opener.

I just think this Spartans team is not getting the credit they deserve, which has simply carried over from last season.  They were a 13-17 loss to Notre Dame away from going a perfect 14-0 and possibly playing in the BCS Championship.  They even had several calls not go their way in that loss to the Fighting Irish.  They have only lost two road games over the last two years, and those came by a combined six points to Notre Dame & Michigan.

I also believe that Oregon is on the decline.  It lost to Stanford last year and then proceeded to lose to Arizona by a final of 16-42.  It was fortunate to win the season finale against Oregon State, winning that game by a single point after a late two-point conversion.  Mark Helfrich really appeared to have lost his team in the second half of the season.  He is not even half the head coach that Chip Kelly was, and that is already starting to be felt.

Michigan State is 7-0 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive straight up wins over the last three seasons. The Spartans are 6-0 ATS as an underdog over the last three seasons. Michigan State is 10-1 ATS in Saturday road games over the last three seasons.  These three trends combine for a 23-1 system backing the Spartans.  This will be their coming out party Saturday as it wouldn't surprise me if they won outright.  Bet Michigan State Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Kentucky -13

Kentucky is a team on the rise in the world of college football.  Sure, this team went 2-10 last year in Mark Stoops' first year on the job in 2013, but that's not telling of what this team is going to do in the coming years.  That's because Stoops has put together back-to-back tremendous recruiting classes, and the talent he's bringing to Lexington is going to start paying off in a big way sooner rather than later.

Stoops has a whopping 15 returning starters to work with, and these guys will be much more accustomed to his systems in Year Two.  That already started to show in the opener as the Wildcats rolled to a 59-14 win over Tennessee-Martin as a 21.5-point favorite.  The Wildcats outgained the Skyhawks 656-398 for the game.

This was a 52-0 game before the Wildcats really called off the dogs and allowed the Skyhawks to pile up some stats in garbage time.  Indeed, 175 of UTM's 398 yards came in the 4th quarter, meaning that they only had 223 yards through the first three quarters.  QB Patrick Towles completed 20 of 29 passes for 377 yards and a touchdown in the win.  Baylon Heard rushed for 116 yards and two touchdowns on only two carries as well.

Ohio did make a bowl game with a 7-6 record last year, but it looked terrible in some of its losses.  It suffered blowout losses to Louisville (7-49), BUffalo (3-30), Bowling Green (0-49) and Kent State (13-44).  It only has 12 starters back this season, including just four on offense.  It loses all-time leading passer Tyler Tettleton, leading rusher Beau Blankenship, and four of its top five receivers.  I was not impressed with its 17-14 road win at Kent State in the opener thanks to a last-second field goal.

Ohio is 0-8 ATS off a win against a conference rival over the last three seasons.  The Bobcats are 14-32 ATS in their last 46 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.  The Wildcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six vs. MAC opponents.  This will be Kentucky's 5th straight year hosting a MAC foe, and it has won each of the last four by an average of 30 points per game.  Bet Kentucky Saturday.

15* Fresno State/Utah No-Brainer on Utah -12

The Utah Utes are coming off back-to-back 5-7 seasons.  They did go 8-5 in their first year in the Pac-12 in 2011, but it has been downhill since.  I look for this team to contend for a bowl game this year as they should be improved with 12 starters and a lot of talent back under head coach Kyle Whittingham.

This team just finds a way to compete when playing in Salt Lake City.  Last year, the Utes did go just 4-3 at home, but their three losses came to Oregon State (48-51, OT), UCLA (27-34) and Arizona State (19-20) by a combined 11 points.  Those were three of the better teams in the Pac-12.  They also beat then-No. 5 Stanford (27-21), which went on to win the Pac-12.

Under new offensive coordinator Dave Christensen, the Utes had three touchdown drives that lasted under 42 seconds in their 56-14 win over Idaho State last week.  The new up-tempo scheme led to 589 total yards of offense for Utah, while the defense held Idaho State to 337 yards.  Travis Wilson completed 13 of 18 passes for 265 yards and a score.  The rushing attack produced 238 yards and 5.2 per carry.

Fresno State will struggle with Utah's up-tempo attack.  It did last week against USC, losing by a final of 13-52.  The Bulldogs' defense allowed an incredible 37 first downs and 701 total yards to the Trojan's new high-tempo offensive.  In fact, the Trojans ran a whopping 105 plays in the game.  The Utes should use the same blueprint to come away with a blowout victory of their own against the hapless Bulldogs. 

Fresno State clearly misses all-time leading passer Derek Carr as its new quarterbacks in Brian Burrell and Brandon Connette were picked off four times and threw for just 160 yards.  The offense managed just 317 total yards and 17 first downs against the Trojans.  Look for them to struggle against what will be a very solid Utah defense in this one.

Whittingham is 41-14 at home as the coach of Utah.  Fresno State is 4-14 ATS in its last 18 games after allowing 50 points or more.  Utah is 51-31 ATS in its last 82 non-conference games, including 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference games.  The Bulldogs are 14-37-2 ATS in their last 53 games following a S.U. loss.  Fresno State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine vs. Pac-12 foes.  The Bulldogs are 1-5 ATS in their last six non-conference games.    The Utes are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 vs. MWC opponents.  Take Utah Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday Upset Shocker on Toledo +4

There is a reason that this line has dropped from Toledo +6 to Toledo +4 and even +3.5 in some places as of this writing.  The sharp money is on Toledo, and it should be because this team is going to win outright Saturday.  I'll simply take the points for a little extra insurance.

I am very big on Toledo this season as I have it winning the MAC.  The reason is because it is one of the most experienced teams in the conference with 16 returning starters.  I have no doubt that this is the most talented team in the conference as well, and they are capable of beating an SEC program, even Missouri, a team that won the SEC East last year.

The Rockets return seven starters from an offense that put up 33.0 points and 447 yards per game last year.  Philip Ely is an Alabama transfer at quarterback who is underrated coming into the season.  Ely completed 24 of 34 passes for 337 yards and four touchdowns in a 54-20 home victory over New Hampshire in the opener.  Kareem Hunt is the top returning rusher, and he ran for 136 yards and two scores in the win.

The defense has a whopping nine starters back and will be one of the most improved in the country.  This unit only had three starters back last year and allowed 28.6 points per game.  That average should fall way down in 2014 with those nine starters back, including five of the top six tacklers.  The top two tacklers in Junior Sylvestre (118 tackles, 5 sacks) and Chase Murdock (109 tackles, 4 sacks) return.  The Rockets have the best O-Line and best D-line in the MAC.

I am way down on Missouri this year, and for good reason.  The Tigers lose almost everyone from last season's miraculous run to the SEC Title.  They are one of the least-experienced teams in the SEC with only eight starters returning.  They lose leading rusher Henry Josey, their top three receivers, and five of their top seven tacklers defensively.  This team could go from first to worst in the SEC East this season.

I was not at all impressed with Missouri's 38-18 home win over South Dakota State as a 25-point favorite in its opener.  It only outgained the Jackrabbits 393-365 for the game, or by a total of just 28 yards.  That will be a sign of things to come for this team because they were expected to crush SDSU, but the final score was not indicative of how close this game really was.  Maty Mauk only threw for 178 yards in the win, while the defense allowed 23 of 32 passing for 246 yards to the Jackrabbits.

Toledo play Missouri just about as tough as anyone last year.  It did lose 23-38 on the road as a 15-point underdog, but that final score was not indicative of how close the game actually was.  Indeed, the Rockets actually outgained the Tigers 387-384 for the game.  As you know, the Tigers went on to play in the SEC Championship.  With Toledo much-improved this season, and Missouri way down, I look for Toledo to pull off the upset at home in the rematch.

Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (TOLEDO) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 31-6 (83.8%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Toledo is 54-34 ATS in its last 88 home games.  Roll with Toledo Saturday.

20* Washington State/Nevada ESPN Late-Night BAILOUT on Washington State -3.5

Washington State made its first bowl game since 2003 last year in just the second season under head coach Mike Leach.  He guided the Cougars to a 6-7 finish after a fluke loss to Colorado State in the New Mexico Bowl where they simply gave the game away in the closing minutes.  Still, it was a step in the right direction for this team, which brings back 14 starters this year.

Obviously, the Cougars did not get off to the start they wanted this season with a 38-41 home loss to Rutgers.  They again fell apart late in that game, but I think Rutgers is a better team than it is getting credit for heading into this season.  The Scarlet Knights brought back 16 starters this year, making them one of the more experienced teams in the country.

Still, when you look at the box score, the Cougars really should have won that game.  They racked up 538 yards of total offense, outgaining the Scarlet Knights by 42 yards for the game.  Returning starter Connor Halliday had a monster game offensively, completing 40 of 56 passes for 532 yards and five touchdowns with one interceptions in the loss.  Four different receivers had 83-plus yards receiving, so he will certainly have the luxury of spreading the ball around this season.

Nevada is getting too much respect here.  It went just 4-8 last year and won't be much better in 2014.  Its performance against Southern Utah was worse than Washington State's against Rutgers.  The Wolf Pack only won by a final of 28-19 at home against this FCS opponent despite being a 24.5-point favorite. 

The Wolf Pack had one of the worst defenses in the country last year, giving up 34.4 points and 505 total yards per game.  Sure, they have 10 starters back on defense, but that's not necessarily a good thing after last season's disaster and lack of talent.  I look for Halliday and company to score at will on this putrid defense.

Washington State is 13-2-1 ATS in its last 16 games following an ATS loss. The Cougars are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Washington State is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Wolf Pack are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a S.U. win. Nevada is 6-14-1 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.

Plays on any team (WASHINGTON ST) - first 2 weeks of the year, bowl team from prior season who lost their last 2 games, team that had a losing record last season are 30-9 (76.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Bet Washington State Friday.

20* Arizona/UTSA Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Arizona -7

The Arizona Wildcats are on the rise under head coach Rich Rodriquez.  He has guided them to back-to-back 8-5 seasons that both ended in bowl victories the past two years.  Now, he should have his best team yet in 2014 as this team is a sleeper to compete for a Pac-12 South Title.  They have 13 returning starters and only 19 lettermen lost.

I was very impressed with Arizona's 58-13 victory over UNLV in the opener.  The Rebels are no juggernaut, but they did make a bowl game last year and are better than they get credit for.  The Wildcats simply dominated them, gaining 787 yards of total offense while giving up just 371, outgaining them by a whopping 416 total yards.

The Wildcats did have to replace their starting quarterback this year, but that's clearly a bonus as BJ Denker wasn't very good as a passer.  Freshman QB Anu Solomon is a name that you need to keep an eye on.  He threw for 425 yards and four touchdowns, while also rushing for 50 yards against UNLV.  Terris Jones-Grigsby and Nick Wilson combined for 228 rushing yards and two touchdowns on only 20 carries.  The Wildcats rushed for 353 yards as a team.  They have one of the best sets of WR's in the country for Solomon as well.

UTSA is getting too much respect here due to its 27-7 win at Houston last week.  I was on UTSA in that game, but I'm willing to admit that the Cougars simply gave that game away by committing six turnovers.  UTSA lost its best player in QB Eric Soza from last year.  He completed 62.6 percent of his passes for 2,719 yards and 12 touchdowns, while also rushing for 369 yards and a team-high seven scores in 2013. 

The new quarterback is Tucker Carter, who I was not impressed with against Houston.  Carter only threw for 121 yards on 24 attempts in the win.  UTSA's offense is limited with Carter at the helm, and it will not create enough explosive plays in the passing game to keep up with this high-powered Arizona offense.

Last year, Arizona beat UTSA by a final of 38-13 at home as a 24-point favorite.  Now, Arizona is only a 7-point road favorite this time around, which is a 17-point swing based on home/away.  That alone tells you that there is some value on the Wildcats in the rematch, especially considering they are a better team than they were last year, while UTSA is probably about on par with how they were last year now that they lost Soza.

Larry Coker is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in home games after a win by 17 or more points as the coach of UTSA.  The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five non-conference games.  Expect another blowout in their favor in this one.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

15* Miami/Louisville ACC Opener on OVER 54

The Louisville Cardinals and Miami Hurricanes play in a rematch from the Russell Athletic Bowl.  The Cardinals won 36-9 in an absolutely dominant performance last season.  They outgained the Hurricanes 554-174 for the game.

Louisville will be a completely different team this year under new head coach Bobby Petrino.  It will be an up-tempo offense that will produce more points than last year, but that will cause the defense to be on the field more, and there's no question that the stop unit won't be as good as it was in 2013.

The Cardinals only return four starters on defense and lose six of their top eight tacklers.  That includes both Preston Brown (94 tackles, 12.5 for loss) and Calvin Pryor (75 tackles, 3 INT), who each moved on to the NFL.  There's no question they will take a big step back defensively this year.

The offense is in good hands with seven starters back.  The Cardinals have one of the best WR corps in the entire country with four of their top five guys back from last year.  Will Gardner is the new starting QB, and he has been getting rave reviews after throwing for over 500 yards in the spring game.

Miami will be breaking in a new starting quarterback, but freshman Brad Kaaya has won over his teammates.  Duke Johnson, who rushed for 920 yards and six touchdowns last year in only seven games, was on pace for nearly 2,000 rushing yards.

Johnson said Kaaya has done a good job taking command of the huddle. “If you didn’t know Brad, you wouldn’t know that he’s a freshman,” Johnson said. “He comes in, he demands … he lets everybody know what’s the play, what he needs done."

Miami's defense was not very good last year, giving up a whopping 426 yards per game.  This stop unit won't be much better in 2014, either.  I think both defenses are at a disadvantage because they will be facing offenses that they have never seen before.  After all, this is their first year together as ACC foes.

The Hurricanes' defensive coordinator even had praise for Kaaya.  “His poise and his mechanics [are what stand out],” Mark D’Onofrio said. “He's very polished — just being able to handle it all and how he looks and he moves in the pocket. It doesn’t look like a young guy doing that. He’s very mechanically sound, like he’s been doing this for a long time.”

The OVER is 7-1 in Hurricanes last 8 games in September.  The OVER is 4-0 in Hurricanes last four conference games.  Expect plenty of offensive fireworks tonight to push the final combined score of this game over the 54-point total.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

15* SMU/Baylor Sunday No-Brainer on Baylor -33

The Baylor Bears are coming off a Big 12 Title after going 11-2 in 2013. They needed a win over Texas in the finale, and got it by a final of 30-10 to secure the conference championship. They went on to play UCF in the Fiesta Bowl, but lost 42-52 despite being a 16-point favorite. It was a very successful season for head coach Art Briles and company. He has done a tremendous job in recruiting as the Bears now figure to be a Big 12 contender for years to come with him leading the way.

June Jones always seems to get the most out of his teams. He has only had four losing seasons in his 15 years as a head coach, but one of those came last year as the Mustangs went just 5-7 overall. Their only wins came against Memphis, Montana State, Tempe, UConn and South Florida as all four of those FBS teams finished with losing records. They did only lose 13-17 to UCF in the finale to show what they were capable of against one of the best teams in the country.

The Bears have been one of the best home teams in the country over the last three years. They have gone 19-1 at home over that time. Last year, they outscored opponents by an average of 61-13 at home while going a perfect 7-0. They are moving up in the world as well because they just got a new stadium that will be introduced Sunday night for the SMU game, so the place should be rocking.

This team led the country in both scoring offense (52.4 ppg) and total offense (619 ypg) last year. What I love about them is that they don’t take their foot off the gas, which allows them to cover big spreads like this one with relative ease. Bryce Petty is a clear Heisman Trophy contender after throwing for 4,200 yards and 32 touchdowns against three interceptions last year. He has the best wide receiver corps in the country as well. The defense is a bit of a concern with only four starters back, but the D-line is loaded with talent and this unit will be better than expected, just as they were last year when they gave up 23.5 points per game.

This is a clear rebuilding year for SMU and head coach Jones. They only have 12 starters back and lose a lot. They part ways with QB Garrett Gilbert, who threw for 3,528 yards and 21 touchdowns against seven interceptions last year. They also lose their top two receivers in Jeremy Johnson (112 receptions, 1,112 yards, 6 TD) and Keenan Holman (67, 1,037, 9 TD). The defense only has six starters back after giving up 33.3 points and 413 yards per game. SMU was blown out by both Texas A&M (13-42) and TCU (17-48) last year. I look for Baylor to easily win this game by 35-plus points.

Plays on home favorites (BAYLOR) – incredible offense from last season – averaged 450 or more total yards/game, with an experienced QB vs. opponent with inexperienced QB, in the first two weeks of the season are 25-5 (83.3%) ATS over the last five seasons. The Bears are 20-6 ATS in their last 26 home games, including 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a home favorite. The Mustangs are 0-4 ATS in their last four non-conference games.  Take Baylor Sunday.

20* Utah State/Tennessee Sunday Night ANNIHILATOR on Tennessee -4.5

Tennessee is coming off three straight losing seasons and desperately wants to get back to a bowl game in 2014. It went just 5-7 last year with three of its wins coming against Austin Peay, Western Kentucky and South Alabama. It only went 2-6 in SEC play, though it did pull off one of the bigger upsets of the season within the conference by beating South Carolina at home. This is a big year for head coach Butch Jones in his second season with the Volunteers.

Utah State has been one of the more underrated teams in college football over the last two seasons. After going 11-2 in 2012 under Gary Andersen, Matt Wells inherited a talented team that finished 9-5 and played in the Mountain West Title Game. There, the Aggies gave Fresno State all they could handle, but ultimately fell 17-24. They went on to beat Northern Illinois in the Poinsettia Bowl for a nice 6-1 finish over their final seven games.

Jones has been stockpiling talent at Tennessee in his two years on the job. Fans have to be excited about the fact that he has been able to recruit with some of the best programs in the country. Indeed, the Volunteers came away with the fifth-best recruiting class in the land for 2014. This team is very close to making some noise within the SEC, and that could happen as soon as this season.

It is concerning that they only return 10 starters this year, but there are several very highly touted players ready to step in and start. I believe this team is going a bit under the radar because they have stunk up the joint the last three years, but that win over South Carolina last season shows what they are capable of. Jones will have his team ready to go in Week 1.

The Vols are showing excellent value as a small home favorite in this one. After all, Tennessee has won 19 straight home openers.  The defense returns five of its top six tacklers and will be one of the most improved units in the country.  The offense should be much better as well because QB Justin Worley is back and he has every one of his top receivers from last year back.

Utah State’s run as a sleeper is over. It was a team to be reckoned with over the last two seasons, able to play with almost anyone in the country. Now, the Aggies are in clear rebuilding mode as they return just eight starters this season. They do have Chuckie Keeton back at quarterback, but one player does not make a team. I look for the offense to take a big step back with only three starters returning.  They break in four new starters along the offensive line, lose leading rusher Joe DeMartino (1,221 yards, 13 TD), and each of their top two receivers in Travis Reynolds (51, 832, 4 TD) and Travis Van Leeuwen (52, 661, 3 TD).

The Aggies' defense figures to take a step back as well with the losses of seven of their top 11 tacklers. They only return five starters on this side of the ball and lose many of their top players, including leading tackler Jake Doughty (148 tackles, 12 for loss), Maurice Alexander (80 tackles, 9 for loss) and Nevin Lawson (57 tackles, 17 passes defended, 4 INT).  Wells benefited from the players that Andersen was able to recruit, but he won’t reap the rewards in his second season nearly as much as he did in his first.  The fact of the matter is that this is a very inexperienced team that won't be able to compete with a team from the SEC in the opener.  Bet Tennessee Sunday.

15* LSU/Wisconsin ESPN Saturday Night BAILOUT on LSU -5

I have a lot of respect for Gary Andersen and the job he has done at both Utah State and in his first year at Wisconsin last season.  The Badgers went 9-4 last season with all three of their regular season losses coming by a touchdown or less.  Then, they fell to SEC foe South Carolina 24-34 in the Capital One Bowl, and I believe that will be a sign of things to come when they face LSU to kick off their 2014 season.

Wisconsin isn't even as strong of a team as it was a year ago.  It only returns 10 starters in all this year, including three on defense.  Their stop unit takes a tremendous hit with the loss of leading tackler Chris Borland, whose 112 tackles were 49 more than second place.  He was the heart and soul of this defense and will be missed badly.  In fact, the Badgers break in seven new starters among the front seven, so look for LSU to run it down their throats all game long.

The Tigers have averaged the fourth-best recruiting class in the country over the last three years.  They are stocked with talent at the running back position, so the loss of Jeremy Hill won't be felt.  They averaged 202 yards per game and 5.0 per carry on the ground last season, and those numbers should be even better in 2014.  That's especially the case with four starters and 75 career starts returning on the offensive line, which is arguably Les Miles' best unit in his 10 years here.

I would be lying if I said that Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin's offensive line don't scare me, but if anything, that is a wash against LSU's defense.  The Tigers return seven starters on D after having just four back on that side of the ball last year.  They have allowed 3.9 or fewer yards per carry in each of the last seven seasons, which is all of the data I currently have in front of me.  Most likely, that streak extends back further.

How I see this game playing out is LSU taking a nice-sized lead in the first half and forcing Wisconsin to abandon its game plan of running the football.  The Badgers not proven they can throw the football consistently, and now they'll be without arguably their most important player on offense last year in Jared Abbrederis.  He caught 78 balls for 1,081 yards and seven touchdowns last season and constantly bailed out the offense when they needed a big play in the passing game.  In fact, the Badgers lose each of their top three receivers from last year.  Their only strength is their running game, and that's not enough to beat this stacked LSU team, or to even keep the game relatively close.

This will be the fourth time in the last five years that LSU opens with a tough neutral site game.  They are 3-0 in their last three with an average margin of victory of 10 points per game.  They beat then-No. 18 UNC (30-24) in 2010, then-No. 3 Oregon (40-27) in 2011, and then-No. 20 TCU (37-27) in 2013.  Chalk up four straight victories by 6 points or more to open the season on neutral sites for the Tigers.  Take LSU Saturday.

**Due to an error in one of the odds feeds this game switched in our system to another, so we are re-releasing it just so it grades correctly***

15* CFB Saturday Night Line Mistake on Louisiana Tech +38

Oklahoma is way overvalued heading into the 2014 season because of its win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year.  I believe the Sooners caught the Crimson Tide in a letdown spot because they had played in the BCS Championship the two previous years, and they clearly were not up for that game.  While I do believe that Oklahoma should be one of the favorites to win the Big 12 this year, it isn't as clear-cut as most folks in the media are making it out to be.

Trevor Knight played great down the stretch for the Sooners, but he's still just a sophomore and won't be as good as everyone is anticipating.  That's especially the case when you consider that the offense only have five starters back on this side of the ball and will be breaking in several new skill players.  I just don't believe that the Sooners have the offensive firepower to cover this 38-point spread against what will be an improved Louisiana Tech team.

Indeed, the Bulldogs will be much better in Skip Holtz's second season.  They should be one of the most improved teams in the country statistically.  They had gone 17-8 over two seasons before Holtz took over.  He was left with nothing as the Bulldogs had just seven starters back last year.  Now they have 13 starters back in 2014 and many of Holtz's own recruits in place to get significant playing time.  There will be value in backing this team in the early going because the public perception on them is down after last season's disaster.

I like the addition of former Iowa transfer Cody Sokol at quarterback.  He'll have the luxury of handing the ball off to both Kenneth Dixon (917 yards, 6.1/carry) and Tevin King (539 yards, 5.8/carry), who were bright spots on an otherwise down season last year.  The defense held its own last season in allowing a respectable 26.3 points per game despite having just four starters back.  This unit should be even better in 2014 with seven starters and five of the top six tacklers back.

Oklahoma will be without its leader defensively.  Middle linebacker Frank Shannon has been suspended for the opener, and possibly the entire season. He not only led the team in tackles (92) last year, but he's also the vocal leader of this stop unit, and the man calling the shots in the middle.  I simply believe this is a case of the betting public giving Oklahoma too much respect coming into the season, and Louisiana Tech not enough.

Plays against a home team (OKLAHOMA) – in non-conference games, with 5 offensive starters returning, in the first two weeks of the season are 63-25 (71.6%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. The Bulldogs are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 road games.  Roll with Louisiana Tech Saturday.

20* Arkansas/Auburn SEC Opener on Arkansas +19

The Arkansas Razorbacks will be one of the most improved teams in the country in 2014 from a statistical standpoint.  Bret Bielema had his hands full in 2013 with just 10 starters back.  They went just 3-9, and after opening 3-0, they would lose each of their final nine games while going winless in SEC play.  While that sounds like an awful finish, I was actually impressed by a couple of their losses late in the season.

Indeed, the Razorbacks only lost 24-34 at Ole Miss as a 17-point underdog, 17-24 (OT) at home to Mississippi State as a 1-point underdog, and then 27-31 at LSU as a 26-point underdog.  They actually had LSU down 27-24 with only one minute remaining, but the Tigers drove the length of the field and stole victory from the jaws of defeat.

Now, with 14 starters returning in the second year of Bielema's system, the Razorbacks are going to sneak up on some teams this year.  They have one of the best 1-2 punches in the country at running back with Alex Collins (1,026 yards, 4 TD) and Jonathan Williams (900 yards, 4 TD).  Three starters and 51 career starts return along the offensive line.  QB Brandon Allen will be better than he was a year ago.  The defense will be improved as well with seven starters and five of the top seven tacklers back.

I am not high on Auburn at all this year.  They are way overvalued after miraculously making the national title game last season.  However, they won six games by 8 points or less, so they were very fortunate to get that far.  They wound up as SEC Champs, but there were a few teams that I would rank as better teams than them last year, including Alabama and LSU. 

The Tigers do have 14 starters back, but will be missing a key one in the opener.  QB Nick Marshall will be suspended for at least part of the game as he will not start.  He was cited in July for possession of marijuana.  It's not clear how much he will play, but he at least will not start.  Also, starting CB Jonathan Mincy will not start the game either because of the same offense.

These teams played last year with Auburn winning by a final of 35-17 on the road.  However, a closer look shows that game was much closer than the score would indicate.  The Razorbacks were only outgained 346-366 for the game, or by 20 total yards.  They actually gained seven more first downs than Auburn in the loss.  The difference in that game was that Arkansas finished -3 in turnover differential, which is unlikely to happen again.

This is an Auburn defense that gave up 421 total yards and 162 rushing yards per game last year.  Arkansas will be able to move the ball on the ground against the Tigers to keep this one close.  After all, they rushed for 222 yards while averaging 4.7 per carry against the Tigers last season.  This game will be much closer than expected, and I wouldn't be surprise to see it as a one-score game in the 4th quarter.  Bet Arkansas Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Afternoon ANNIHILATOR on Alabama -26

Just as they do every year, the Alabama Crimson Tide will make their opponent look like a high school team in the opener.  That opponent in 2014 is West Virginia, which was one of the worst teams in the Big 12 last year, finishing in a tie for seventh place.  This game is going to get ugly in a hurry as the Tide roll to victory.

The Crimson Tide have won 12 straight home openers by an average of 25 points per game.  The last four have been absolute blowouts.  They beat San Jose State (48-3) as a 37-point favorite in 2010, Kent State (48-7) as a 39-point favorite in 2011, Michigan (41-14) as a 13-point favorite in 2012 and Virginia Tech (35-10) as a 21-point favorite in 2013.  You can add another blowout and cover to that résumé in 2014.

Alabama will be highly motivated after losing each of its final two games last year after a perfect 11-0 start.  This is one of Nick Saban's most experienced teams yet with 12 starters back.  The offense is going to be dynamic even with a new starting quarterback.  You have to remember that Jake Coker nearly beat out Heisman Trophy winner, Jameis Winston, last year at Florida State.

While capable, Coker won't have to do too much in the early going.  He can simply hand the ball off the to best running back corps in the country in TJ Yeldon (1,235 yards, 6.0/carry, 14 TD), Kenyan Drake (694 yards, 7.5/carry, 8 TD) and Derrick Henry (382 yards, 10.9/carry, 3 TD) all game and watch them do their thing.  They'll be running behind one of the best offensive lines in the country that paved the way for 206 yards and 5.8/carry on the ground last year.

The defense only brings back five starters, but that's not a big deal at all.  The last time the Crimson Tide only had five starters back, they allowed 10.9 points per game in 2012.  This stop unit is still loaded with future NFL stars.  After all, Nick Saban's defenses have allowed 14.3 points per game or fewer for six seasons running.

Admittedly, West Virginia is not going to be as bad as last year, but that's not saying much off a 4-8 disaster that saw two of its wins come against William & Mary (24-17) and Georgia State (41-7) at home.  The Mountaineers do have 13 starters back this year after only having eight back last season, but there really isn't a lot of talent on this team.  They are still in a mess at the QB position with Clint Trickett, who only completed 52.8 percent of his passes last year with seven touchdowns and seven picks.  He's not going to be much better this year, especially in the opener against the best defense he has ever seen by far.

The Crimson Tide are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 neutral site games.  Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five August games.  West Virginia is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 games on fieldturf.  The Mountaineers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven neutral site games.  West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in its last six non-conference games.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Non-Conference KNOCKOUT on Troy +3

The Troy Trojans have had just five losing seasons in the last 22 years.  Larry Blakeney enters his 24th season here as head coach, and time and time again he fields teams that are capable of competing with almost any team in the country with the talent on hand.  That's why it has been a bit mind-boggling that this team has failed to finish with a winning record in each of the last three years.

That will all change in 2014 as Blakeney welcomes back 12 returning starters after having just seven back during a 6-6 campaign last season.  This team has had some tough luck in recent years as well.  The Trojans lost a ridiculous six games by a touchdown or less during a 5-7 campaign in 2012. They then lost three games by a touchdown or less last season with two of the three exceptions coming on the road against SEC powers Ole Miss and Mississippi State.

While 12 starters doesn't seem like a big number, it is actually pretty big for Troy as it is their second-most returning starters over the last five years.  The Trojans also have 56 lettermen returning, so this is going to be a deep, experienced team.  I actually wouldn't be surprised to see them win the Sun Belt, which is something that has happened quite frequently under Blakeney's watch.

UAB, on the other hand, is known for losing.  It has not won more than five games in any of the past nine seasons, and it has even failed to win five games in seven of those nine years.  2013 was no exception as the Blazers went just 2-10 despite having 15 starters back.  Their only wins came against FCS opponent Northwestern State (52-28) as well as winless FIU (27-24).  They even got blown out at home in the season finale by previously winless Southern Miss (27-62).

Sure, the Blazers have 15 starters back this year, but that doesn't mean much for them because there isn't much talent to speak of here for first-year head coach Bill Clark.  In fact, the Blazers have had 14 or more starters back in four of the past five seasons.  How have they done over that time?  How about a combined 17-43 record.  So, just because a team has a lot of starters back doesn't always mean it's a good thing, especially for small-school programs like UAB who cannot recruit talent.

Troy has won four of the last five meetings in this series, including each of the last three.  Corey Robinson broke an 18-year-old NCAA record by completing 93.8% (30-32) of his passes in a 34-31 overtime win over the Blazers last season in the opener.  Remember, this was an inexperienced Troy team last year with just seven starters back.  With 12 back this year and 56 lettermen, they will be much more prepared for the opener, and should roll this time.

UAB is just 22-42 ATS in its last 64 games as a favorite.  The Blazers are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They had blowout losses to Vanderbilt (24-52), UTSA (31-52), Marshall (14-56), East Carolina (14-63) and Southern Miss (27-62) during this 2-7 ATS skid dating back to last season.  Bet Troy Saturday.

15* CFB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Virginia +21

The UCLA Bruins are coming into the 2014 season way overvalued.  They are a popular pick to win the Pac-12 this season and make the four-team playoff.  As a result, the betting public is way too high on them in the early going, starting with this opener against Virginia on the road.

Conversely, Virginia is coming off a 2-10 season in which it went winless in ACC play.  Obviously, the betting public wants nothing to do with the Cavaliers, and as a result they head into the 2014 season underdog.  They should not be catching three touchdowns against the Bruins Saturday.

Mike London hasn't gotten the most out of the talent he has had on hand.  A big reason for that is the fact that this team has been decimated by injuries in recent years.  I look for them to have better luck in that department in 2014, which will lead to them being one of the more improved teams in the country statistically.

Speaking of talent, Virginia has actually averaged the 31st-best recruiting class in the country over the last three seasons.  That talent could start paying off as soon as this year, especially when you consider that this should be London's best team yet.  Indeed, he will be working with a whopping 17 returning starters and 53 lettermen from last year's squad.

The offense is going to be vastly improved.  All of the top rushers are back, including Kevin Parks (1,031 yards, 11 TD).  QB Greyson Lambert got his feet wet with a little playing time as a freshman last year, and he's got the talent to really emerge as a sophomore.  He'll be working behind an offensive line that has three starters and 49 career starts back. 

I'm really excited about the defense as eight starters and eight of the top nine tacklers return.  This will easily be one of the most improved stop units in the country.  Headlining the defense is All-ACC safety Anthony Harris, who led the nation with eight interceptions last year.  I believe this defense will keep the UCLA offense in check and allow the Cavaliers to cover three touchdowns.  Roll with Virginia Saturday.

20* CFB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Ohio State -16.5

The Ohio State Buckeyes would be a much bigger favorite if Braxton Miller was playing.  While Miller is an excellent player, Urban Meyer has done a lot more with worse starters than JT Barrett, who will get the start Saturday against Navy.  I look for it to be business as usual for the Buckeyes, who will roll to victory against the overmatched Midshipmen in this one.

Meyer would have a case for being the best coach in college football with two national championships at Florida and a perfect 12-0 season at Utah.  That doesn't even include how he turned Bowling Green around in his time there.  Nor does it include that fact that Ohio State went a perfect 24-0 in his first 24 games as head coach over the last two seasons before dropping the last two to Michigan State and Clemson.

The quarterback is J.T. Barrett, and while he's not as athletic or dynamic as Braxton Miller, who is? Alex Smith wasn't. Josh Harris wasn't. Neither was Chris Leak nor Kenny Guiton. And Meyer did just fine with those guys, using Harris to win 17 games in two seasons at Bowling Green, Smith to go 12-0 at Utah, Leak to win a national title at Florida and Guiton to replace the injured Miller a year ago and lead the Buckeyes to three straight victories.

Meyer inherited that quartet (Smith, Harris, Leak, Guiton) from the previous staff at each school, just as he inherited Braxton Miller from Jim Tressel. In most cases, most obviously with Smith, Harris and Guiton, but also Miller, Meyer milked more than expected from each quarterback, and he did it right away.

When he hand-picks a guy at QB, they usually thrive even more.  Barrett is a handpicked recruit and one of the top-three dual-threat quarterbacks in the country coming out of high school.  Meyer handpicked Omar Jacobs at Bowling Green, and he set all kinds of school records playing for Meyer's former assistant, Gregg Brandon, in Meyer's offense.  The same thing happened at Utah with Brian Johnson, who thrived under Meyer assistant Kyle Whittingham, once again Meyer's system.  We all know how Tim Tebow and Cam Newton worked out, as well.

Barrett will be fine because this team is loaded with talented skill players around him.  But the defense is the biggest reason why I like Ohio State to roll Navy.  After returning just four starters on defense last year, the Buckeyes welcome back seven starters on D in 2014.  They will play more press coverage to mask the secondary, which was a weakness last year for this team.  It can only get better in 2014.

The good news is that the secondary won't be needed against Navy's triple-option offense.  It will be the front seven that needs to stop it, and perhaps no better team is equipped to do so than Ohio State.  It has the best defensive line in the entire country with all four starters returning from a unit that gave up only 109 rushing yards per game and 3.3 per carry.  This unit is loaded with nothing but future-early-round NFL draft picks in Noah Spence, Joey Bosa, Michael Bennett and Adolphus Washington.

Another key to this game is that Ohio State has had all offseason to prepare for the triple-option.  Without question, the triple-option is the toughest offense to prepare for.  That's why Navy has had so much success during the regular season over the past decade.  However, when an opponent gets extra time to prepare for it, the Midshipmen are at a massive disadvantage.  They cannot adjust because that's all they run.  They is almost zero threat of the passing game.  Meyer will have the troops prepared to stop Keenan Reynolds and company.

Plays on road favorites of 10.5 to 21 points (OHIO ST) - solid team from last season - outgaining their opponents by 75 or more yards/game are 30-7 (81.1%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  Take Ohio State Saturday.

25* In-State Rivalry GAME OF THE YEAR on Colorado -3

It amazes me that the Colorado Buffaloes are only a 3-point favorite over the Colorado State Rams in the opener.  This is a clear line mistake, and one that we will take advantage of.  The Buffaloes beat the Rams 41-27 last year in a game that wasn't even as close as the final score would indicate.  The Buffaloes outgained the Rams 509-295 for the game.

Colorado only went 4-8 last season, and it is undervalued as a result.  This is the second year under head coach Mike MacIntyre, and the Buffaloes are going to surprise some teams this year.  They have 16 starters and 57 lettermen returning, while losing only 18 lettermen. 

That includes QB Sefo Liufao, who threw for 1,779 yards and 12 touchdowns against eight interceptions last year.  A whopping 13 of the top 16 tacklers are back on defense. MacIntyre went 1-15 in his first 16 games at San Jose State, but 16-6 in his next 22 games.  He will turn this program around as well.

Colorado State is getting too much respect for me coming into the season.  It is coming off an 8-6 season, which included a miracle comeback victory over Washington State in the bowl game as the Cougars simply gave it away.  That win over WSU is a big reason why this team is getting so much respect.  However, the losses are enormous, especially on the offensive side of the ball. 

The Rams only bring back 12 starters this year.  They lose leading rusher Kapri Bibbs (1,741 yards, 31 TD) as well as four starters along the offensive line.  The defensive line brings back just one of four starters, so this team figures to get owned the trenches, and there's clearly no replacing Bibbs.

The Buffaloes finished last season by going 4-1 ATS in their last five games, which included a 7-point loss at Utah as a 15-point underdog, a 29-47 home loss to USC as a 21-point dog, a 41-24 home win over Cal as a 2-point favorite, and a 23-45 loss at UCLA as a 28-point dog.  I look for them to continue being a covering machine not only at the start of 2014, but for much of the season as this team is vastly improved.  Bet Colorado Friday.

20* CFB Friday Undervalued Underdog on UTSA +11.5

The UTSA Roadrunners are one of the most underrated teams in all of college football entering 2014.  I actually have them winning Conference USA's West Division and squaring off against Marshall in the C-USA Title Game.  I cannot say enough good things about fourth-year head coach Larry Coker, who has really done an excellent job with this team.

UTSA went 7-5 last year, but this will be the first year that it can be bowl eligible, and I believe it will get to a bowl.  This team comes in with a ton of momentum after going 5-0 in ts final five games of 2013 with wins over FBS opponents UAB (52-31), Tulsa (34-15), Tulane (10-7), North Texas (21-13) and Louisiana Tech (30-10).  Two of those five teams made bowl games.

Now, Coker will be working with the most experienced team in the entire country.  Indeed, UTSA returns a whopping 20 starters and 55 lettermen while losing only 10.  They had 18 starters back last year, so this is a veteran group that is used to playing one another.  The Roadrunners went 7-5 last year despite finishing -7 in turnover differential on the season, too.

Sure, UTSA lost 28-59 at home to Houston last season, but a deeper look into the box score shows that game was much closer than the final score would indicate.  Indeed, UTSA actually outgained Houston 493-491 for the game, but it finished -5 in turnover differential as it gave the ball away five times, while the Cougars didn't cough it up once.  In fact, this was a 31-28 game heading into the 4th quarter.  This 2014 rematch will be much closer, and I even give the Roadrunners a great shot to win it outright.

Houston thrived off of turnovers last year, and it comes into 2014 overvalued as a result.  It went 8-5 last year, but it was very fortunate to finish with that record thanks to leading the country in turnover differential (+25).  That's essentially an average of +2 in turnover differential per game.  The Cougars simply cannot rely on that again in 2014, and they aren't going to be as strong as a result.  They only outgained opponents 420-416 on the year.  They do have 17 returning starters and will be a quality team, but they are getting too much love as a double-digit favorite in the 2014 opener.

The Roadrunners are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games.  UTSA is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games.  You'll learn to love this team once you watch them give the Cougars a run for their money Friday night.  Take UTSA Friday.

15* CFB Friday Night Line Mistake on Western Kentucky +8

The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers will be going through their third head coach in three years.  Both Willie Taggart and Bobby Petrino capitalized on getting WKU to bowl eligibility in each of the last three seasons, and they both left for greener pastures.  Taggart is now the head coach at South Florida, while Petrino returns to Louisville.

Enter Jeff Brohm, who will actually keep some continuity on this team considering he was the assistant head coach/offensive coordinator under Petrino last year.  He played quarterback under Petrino at Louisville, so he certainly has learned under one of the best offensive minds in all of college football.

Brohm and the WKU offense will have plenty of success this year after putting up 30.8 points and 459 yards per game last season.  That's because eight starters return on this side of the ball, including senior QB Brandon Doughty, who completed 65.8 percent of his passes for 2,857 yards with 14 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.  He will need to cut back on his turnovers because the Hilltoppers finished -10 in turnover differential, but that's a sign that points upward for them heading into 2014.

Bowling Green is getting way too much respect after going 10-4 last year and winning the MAC.  That was a quality team, but they lose head coach Dave Clawson to Wake Forest, and they only have 12 starters back this year after bringing back 16 last year.  They are sure to take a big step back in 2014, especially on the defensive side of the ball.  They only have five starters back on D, and they were extremely fortunate to give up 15.9 ppg last year because they gave up 20.3 yards per point, which is ridiculously high.

The Falcons also finish +10 in turnover differential last year to aid their cause.  They did go 3-2 in true road games, but their three wins came against lowly Kent State, Miami (Ohio) and Eastern Michigan, who went a combined 6-30 last season.  They also lost at Indiana (10-42).  This is going to be a quality team again in 2014, but nowhere near as strong as 2013.  Asking the Falcons to win by more than a touchdown on the road against a quality WKU squad is simply asking too much.

Plays on home teams (W KENTUCKY) - incredible offense from last season - averaged 450 or more total yards/game, with an experienced QB returning as starter, in the first month of the season are 54-22 (71.1%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Plays on home underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (W KENTUCKY) - team that had a winning record last season, in non-conference games are 29-6 (82.9%) ATS over the last 10 seasons.  WKU is 10-2 ATS in the first half of the season over the last three seasons.  Roll with Western Kentucky Friday.

20* 2014 College Football Season Opener on Tulsa -4.5

Tulsa was coming off a Conference USA Title in 2012 as it went 11-3 and beat Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl.  It had gone a combined 29-11 in three seasons prior to 2013's 3-9 disaster.  There were a lot of signs pointing downward last year, though, as they had just nine returning starters, including two on defense.

I look for Tulsa to to be a much-improved team in 2014 with 15 returning starters for head coach Bill Blankenship.  A whopping 10 of those come on defense, where the Golden Hurricane will be vastly improved after giving up 33.9 points and 430 yards per game last year.  THe offense also figures to take a step forward despite only five starters coming back.  They had averaged at least 33 points per game in three years prior to 2013, where they averaged just 21.1 points.

Sophomore Dane Evans will be the QB after gaining valuable experience there last year.  He has the luxury of welcoming back junior receiver Keyarris Garrett, who had 845 receiving yards in 2012 before missing all but two starts last year due to injury.  This is a talented set of skill players led by Garrett.  The defense has 17 of its top 19 tacklers back from last year and a ton of depth heading into 2014.

I was big on Tulane last year, and it delivered by going 7-6 and making it to a bowl game.  However, that team was very fortunate to get bowl eligible because it was nowhere near as good as its record would indicate.  In fact, it only gained 311 yards per game offensively while giving up 351 yards per game on defense.  It was actually outgained by 40 yards per game on the season.

The key to Tulane's season was finishing +11 in turnover differential, while Tulsa went -10 in turnover differential.  I expect some regression to the mean for both teams this year.  Tulane did beat Tulsa 14-7 at home last year despite getting outgained 301-344 for the game.  It forced four turnovers from Tulsa en route to victory.  I look for the Golden Hurricane to have their revenge at home this time around because they are a lot more experienced, while the Green Wave figure to take a step back as soon as the opener.

Tulsa is 8-1 SU & 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Tulane, including a perfect 4-0 ATS in its last four home meetings.  Before last year's 7-point loss, the Golden Hurricane had won their previous eight meetings with the Green Wave by 35, 28, 28, 24, 49, 24, 35 and 24 points, respectively.  I look for them to get back to dominating this series in 2014 with a blowout home victory.  Bet Tulsa Thursday.