20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Xavier -1

Sean Miller is 425-157 as a head coach including 123-48 at Xavier.  He returned to Xavier this season and the cupboard was far from bare.  The Musketeers returned four starters including three double-digit scorers.  Miller is a master recruiter as well, so the Musketeers are loaded.

They are off to a 3-1 start this season with wins by 23 over Morgan State, by 22 over Montana and by 13 over Fairfield.  They also lost to Indiana by 2 as 2.5-point dogs.  That's an Indiana team that is also loaded this season and it's not a bad loss.  It will serve them well moving forward

Florida's 3-1 start is much more concerning.  They were double-digit favorites in three of the four games and only a 7-point favorite against a very bad Florida State team in which they won by 9.  But they lost outright at home to FAU as 12-point favorites and only beat lowly Kennesaw State by 10 as 20-point favorites.  It's a rebuilding year for first-year head coach Todd Golden and the Gators.

Golden is 9-24 ATS vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 8-plus points per game as a head coach.  Miller is 59-35 ATS in road games when playing just his 2nd game in 8 days as a head coach.  Florida is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games following a win.  The Gators are 0-6 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet Xavier Thursday.

20* Creighton/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Creighton -1

The Creighton Bluejays are ranked in the Top 10 for good reason.  This team is loaded under head coach Greg McDermott.  The Bluejays are 5-0 SU & 3-2 ATS this season with one of their non-covers coming by half a point.  They just blasted a very good Texas Tech team 76-65 last night.

The Bluejays have four players averaging double figures scoring and three of them shoot 42% or better from 3-point range.  They are tough to defend.  They'll take on a reloading Arkansas team that lost all five starters from a year ago.  The chemistry for the Bluejays can be trusted much more than that of the Razorbacks early in the season.

Arkansas is 4-0 as well but against an extremely soft schedule of North Dakota State, Fordham, South Dakota State and Louisville.  That's the worst Louisville team we've seen in decades as the Cardinals are now 0-4 this season with losses to Appalachian State, Wright State and Belmont.

The Bluejays are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning % of .600 or better.  Creighton is 7-0 ATS in its last seven neutral site games.  Roll with Creighton Tuesday.

20* CBB Tournament GAME OF THE WEEK on Tarleton State +7.5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with an 89-81 upset win over Belmont as 4-point underdogs on Friday.  Yesterday the Texans upset Boston College 70-54 as 3.5-point dogs.  That blowout win will keep them fresh for this 3rd game in 4 days, and it will actually only be their 3rd game in 11 days after having seven days off prior to this tournament.

Drake will be playing its 4th game in 8 days.  The Bulldogs have been in three straight battles that went down to the wire too, and fatigue will be a factor as a result.  They beat Wofford 80-72 as 12.5-point favorites, Buffalo 80-72 as 13-point favorites and Wyoming 61-56 as 5-point favorites.  This team is grossly overvalued right now and continues to be as 7.5-point favorites over a Tarleton State team that is more than capable of winning this game outright.  In fact, the Texans are probably the best team the Bulldogs have faced this season.

Drake is 13-23 ATS in its last 36 games overall.  The Bulldogs are 7-16-2 ATS in their last 25 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Drake is 3-10-2 ATS in its last 15 neutral site games.  The Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Bet Tarleton State Monday.

20* CBB Sunday Late-Night BAILOUT On Tarleton State +5.5

Tarleton State made a great hire in Billy Gillispie who is a proven head coach at the D1 level.  He has gone 24-27 in his first two seasons at Tarleton, which have been rebuilding years for him with the Texans just moving to D1 two years ago and joining a loaded Western Athletic Conference.

Gillespie brought back three starters and two key reserves this season.  The Texans opened with a 59-62 loss at Arizona State as 14-point dogs before crushing Kansas Christian 95-49.  And boy does that 3-point loss to ASU look good now.  The Sun Devils upset VCU 63-59 as 3.5-point dogs on Wednesday and followed it up with a blowout upset win over Michigan 87-62 as 7.5-point dogs.

Tarleton followed it up with an 89-81 upset win over Belmont as 4-point underdogs on Friday.  Now the Texans will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, so they are fresh and ready to go.  Meanwhile, Boston College will be playing its 4th game in 10 days, so the Golden Eagles are far from fresh.  

The results have been concerning for the Golden Eagles as they are 1-3 ATS with a 2-point win over Cornell as a 9.5-point home favorite, a 4-point win over Detroit as an 8.5-point home favorite and an outright loss to Maine by 5 as a 20.5-point home favorite.  They should not be favored here.  Oddsmakers are putting too much stock in their 15-point win over a bad George Mason team on Friday as 3-point underdogs.  The Texans likely win this game outright.  Bet Tarleton State Sunday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Charleston +5.5

Charleston is clearly loaded this season.  They are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS against a brutal schedule.  Their lone loss came at UNC on the road in which they covered.  They also beat Chattanooga by 7 as 4-point favorites, Richmond by 2 as 2.5-point favorites, Davidson by 23 as 3-point favorites and Colorado State by 10 as 1-point favorites.  

The Cougars should not be underdogs to Virginia Tech.  This is listed as a neutral court game but it's actually played on Charleston's home court.  Virginia Tech is rebuilding this season and is overvalued due to a 5-0 start against a soft schedule.  The first three wins came against Delaware State, Lehigh and William & Mary all at home.  They then struggled on a neutral to beat Old Dominion by 4 as a 14-point favorite and failed to cover as a 3-point favorite in a 2-point win over Penn State.

Charleston is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games as an underdog.  Charleston is 16-4 ATS in its last 20 games vs. teams that are called for 17 or fewer fouls per game.  The Hokies are 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.  The Cougars are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.  The Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Roll with Charleston Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday Undervalued Underdog on Seattle +3.5

Seattle went 23-9 in Chris Victor's first season with the team.  Now he returns four starters as the Redhawks are absolutely loaded.  That includes Cameron Tyson (14.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Riley Grigsby (12.8 PPG, 3.6 RPG).  They also return three reserves that scored at least 4.2 PPG last year.

The Redhawks are off and running with a 3-0 start this season covering the spread in their two lined games.  They won 85-71 at UC-San Diego as 3.5-point road favorites, 106-55 over Puget Sound and 83-71 at home over Portland State as 9.5-point favorites.

That gives these teams a common opponent in Portland State, which Portland beat 98-91 as a 15.5-point favorite.  Portland is 4-1 this season but lost to the best team they played 65-77 at Kent State.  The Pilots were supposed to be loaded this season returning all 5 starters from a 19-15 team.  They they are without Chris Austin (14.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG last year) and could be without Mike Meadows (10.2 PPG, 3.0 APG), who is questionable.

The spot really favors Seattle tonight.  They have had the last five days off and will be playing just their 2nd game in 10 days, so they have had a ton of time to rest up and game plan for the Pilots.  Meanwhile, Portland will be playing its 6th game in 13 days to start the season.  They just played at Air Force on Thursday and only have one day to game plan for Seattle.  They are at a huge rest and preparation disadvantage here.

Seattle crushed Portland 84-68 at home and 84-72 on the road in the two most recent meetings.  The Redhawks are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  Seattle is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 road games.  The Pilots are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  Bet Seattle Saturday.

20* CBB Saturday No-Doubt Rout on Missouri State -2

Missouri State struck gold in the transfer portal under head coach Dana Ford to reload following a 23-11 season last year.  He brought in seven Division 1 transfers from places like Maryland, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia, Akron and Colorado State.  This team is loaded again this season.

We saw that play out in their first two games with an 82-47 win over Missouri S&T followed by a very impressive 64-66 loss at BYU as 9.5-point dogs.  Now they take on a Middle Tennessee team That lost their top two players from last season in Josh Jefferson (14.7 PG) and Donovan Sims (11.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 100 assists).

Middle Tennessee has beaten up on two overmatched opponents at home in Brescia and Rice.  But in their lone road game they lost 68-76 at Winthrop despite being 2.5-point favorites.  Now they're on the road again here and this will be their toughest test of the season.  I think getting Missouri State as a short home favorite is an excellent value.

The Bears are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 home games vs. a team that wins less than 40% of their road games.  Missouri State is 26-12 ATS in its last 38 games as a favorite.  Middle Tennessee head coach MdDevitt is 0-6 ATS in road games after leading the previous game by 15 points or more at halftime as the coach of the Blue Raiders.  Roll with Missouri State Saturday.

20* Indiana/Xavier FS1 No-Brainer on Xavier +4

Sean Miller is 425-156 as a head coach including 123-47 at Xavier.  He returned to Xavier this season and the cupboard was far from bare.  The Musketeers returned four starters including three double-digit scorers.  Miller is a master recruiter as well, so the Musketeers are loaded.

They are off to a 3-0 start this season with wins by 23 over Morgan State, by 22 over Montana and by 13 over Fairfield.  Now they host the Indiana Hoosiers and should not be home underdogs in this game.  Indiana is getting too much credit for blowout wins over Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman to start the season.

Indiana is 5-18 ATS in its last 23 road games following a blowout win by 30 points or more.  The Musketeers are 5-0 ATS in their last five Friday games.  Wrong team favored here.  Take Xavier Friday.