20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana State -5

Indiana State wants revenge from a 89-78 loss at Drake on January 10th.  The Bulldogs shot the lights out in that game going 10-of-25 (40%) from 3.  They will be much less comfortable on the road in the rematch tonight.

The Sycamores are 9-0 SU & 7-1 ATS at home this season outscoring their opponents by 26.5 points per game.  They are scoring 90.6 points per game and allowing 64.1 points per game at home.  

Drake is 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in its last five road games losing outright as 7-point favorites at UAB, outright by 22 as 5.5-point favorites at Belmont and outright as 5.5-point favorites at UAB.  This will be Drake's toughest road test of the season tonight.

Drake is 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games following two or more consecutive home wins.  The Bulldogs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games after scoring 80 points or more.  The Sycamores are 8-0 ATS in their last eight Saturday home games.  Bet Indiana State Saturday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Minnesota PK

Northwestern is coming off a crushing 105-96 (OT) loss to Purdue on Wednesday.  It's the kind of loss that can beat a team twice.  I fully expect the Wildcats to be flat and tired today after having just two days off in between games.

Minnesota is rested and ready to go after beating Penn State 83-74 last Saturday.  The Golden Gophers have had a full week to rest and prepare to beat Northwestern.  I expect them to put it to use today and get the job done.

Minnesota is one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  The Gophers have gone 13-7 SU & 17-3 ATS this season.  That includes 11-3 SU & 13-1 ATS at home.  Northwestern is going to cool off from 3 today as Minnesota is 8-0 ATS in thier last eight games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% of their attempts or better.  Bet Minnesota Saturday.

20* Big East GAME OF THE WEEK on St. John's +3

This is a great spot to 'buy low' on St. John's.  The Red Storm have lost four of their last five games with three of those losses coming on the road and a 1-point home loss to Marquette.  They will be more motivated to win this game against UConn than any other game all season.

The Red Storm are also out for revenge from a 69-65 road loss at UConn in their first meeting this season.  Now they get them at home where they are 8-2 SU with that 1-point loss to Marquette being their lone home loss in conference play.  They beat Xavier by 15, Butler by 16, Providence by 2 and Villanova by 20 in their other four Big East home games.

Alex Karaban (14.5 PPG, 5.8 RPG) is questionable for the Huskies today after suffering an ankle injury against Providence last time out.  Rick Pitino is 50-26 ATS when revenging a road loss as a head coach.  Bet St. John's Saturday.

25* MVC GAME OF THE YEAR on Valparaiso +20.5

The Drake Bulldogs are in the ultimate sandwich spot tonight.  They are coming off a 77-63 home win as 9.5-point favorites against their in-state rivals in Northern Iowa, who were without their best player.  And now they have an even bigger game on deck on the road Saturday at Indiana State that is a matchup of the top two teams in the Missouri Valley.

Sandwiched in between those games is this contest against Valparaiso, which has one of the worst records in the conference.  The Bulldogs are just going to feel like they can show up and win this one, and they won't be giving the Beacons their full attention.  So getting 20.5 points with Valpo is a tremendous value tonight given the awful spot for Drake.

But this Valpo team has been no pushover.  The Beacons have quietly gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and are much better than they get credit for.  They haven't lost any of their last seven games by more than 11 points.  They are 4-0 ATS in their four road games during this stretch losing by 6 as 12.5-point dogs at Illinois-Chicago, winning outright at Illinois State by 9 as 10-point dogs, only losing by 3 at Evansville as 7-point dogs and losing by just 6 at Southern Illinois as 13.5-point dogs.

Valparaiso is 8-1 ATS in its last nine meetings with Drake.  Four of the last five meetings were decided by 7 points or fewer.  Drake hasn't won any of its last 14 meetings with Valpo by more than 18 points, making for a 14-0 system backing the Beacons pertaining to this 20.5-point spread.  The Beacons are 8-1 ATS in all games played away from home this season.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Wake Forest/Pittsburgh OVER 143

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons are scoring 80.2 points per game this season.  They are allowing 79.6 points per game in all games played away from home.  This total is 143 is very low for a game involving Wake Forest.

In fact, nine of Wake Forest's last 10 games have seen 147 or more combined points, which makes for a 9-1 system backing the OVER pertaining to this 143-point total.  Pitt is more of an under team than an over team, but the Panthers will get theirs on offense and this game will sail OVER.

The OVER is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings between Pitt and Wake Forest with 144 or more combined points in five of those seven meetings.  The last two meetings saw 160 and 166 combined points.  The OVER is 14-2 in Wake's last 16 January games.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* SEC GAME OF THE MONTH on Ole Miss PK

What more does Ole Miss have to do to get some respect? The Rebels are 17-3 SU this season including a perfect 11-0 SU at home.  Chris Beard is making an immediate impact on this team in his first season and proving he's one of the best head coaches in the country.

Mississippi State is coming off a huge upset home win over Auburn.  But it has been a different story on the road for the Bulldogs.  Mississippi State is 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in its three SEC road games this season losing by 6 as 3-point favorites at South Carolina, losing by 13 as 6.5-point dogs at Kentucky and losing by 9 as 4.5-point dogs at Florida.

Ole Miss is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in SEC home games this season beating Florida by 18 as 3-point dogs, beating Vanderbilt by 13 as 10-point favorites and crushing Arkansas by 26 as 8.5-point favorites.

Mississippi State is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games with a line of +3 to -3.  The Rebels are 6-0 ATS in home games vs. teams who attempt 21 or more 3-pointers this season.  Bet Ole Miss Tuesday.

20* Duke/VA Tech ESPN No-Brainer on Virginia Tech +3.5

I love the spot for Virginia Tech tonight.  They are coming off a 91-67 blowout home victory over Georgia Tech on Saturday and get to stay at home here.  They will be the much fresher team in this matchup despite playing their 2nd game in 3 days.

Duke will also be playing its 2nd game in 3 days but has to travel.  The Blue Devils expended a ton of energy in their 72-71 win over Clemson on Saturday at home.  They also won in dramatic fashion with two free throws just before the buzzer to eek out the win.  Now they are primed for a letdown as well.

Virginia Tech has a big home-court advantage going 10-1 SU at home this season.  The lone loss came by 4 points to Miami.  The Hokies are 4-1 SU & 4-1 ATS in their last four home meetings with the Blue Devils and always play them tough in Blacksburg.  They are also 5-1 ATS in their last six home meetings.

Virginia Tech is 13-2 ATS in its last 15 home games following two or more consecutive wins.  The Hokies are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  I expect the Hokies to win outright, but we'll take the points for some insurance.  Bet Virginia Tech Monday.

20* Kentucky/Arkansas ESPN No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5

I love the spot for Kentucky tonight.  They are coming off their worst loss of the season getting upset at South Carolina by 17 as 5.5-point favorites.  They will bounce back in a big way tonight and won't be taking this dreadful Arkansas team lightly as a result.

The Razorbacks are broken.  They are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall and getting blown out on the regular.  They lost by 32 at home to Auburn, by 10 at Georgia, by 22 at Florida, by 13 at home to South Carolina and by 26 at Ole Miss.  I think Eric Musselman has lost this team already, and they may not have their best player in Tramon Mark (17.8 PPG), who is questionable after sitting out last game.

Arkansas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 vs. up-tempo teams that average 62 or more shots per game.  Kentucky is 15-5 ATS in its last 20 road games off an upset loss as a road favorite.  The Razorbacks are 0-6 ATS off three straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers this season. Bet Kentucky Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE MONTH on Wyoming +8

Wyoming has one of the strongest home-court advantages in the country.  The Cowboys are 7-1 SU at home this season including an upset win over Nevada as 7-point dogs in their most recent home game.  That's the same Nevada team that just beat Colorado State 77-64 last time out.

Wyoming should not be catching 8 points at home to a Colorado State team that has been grossly overvalued since it turned conference season.  The Cowboys are 2-3 SU & 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.  The two wins came in OT at home against Air Force as 15.5-point favorites and by 3 over UNLV at home as 7-point favorites.  They lost all three of their true road games during this stretch.

The home team is 4-0 SU in the last four meetings.  Colorado State is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games off two straight games where they forced 11 or fewer turnovers.  The Rams are 0-6 ATS off a conference game this season.  Bet Wyoming Saturday.

20* Clemson/Duke ESPN No-Brainer on Clemson +8.5

I love the spot for Clemson.  They last played on Saturday in a 78-67 road win at Florida State.  That means they have had an entire week off to rest and prepare to beat Duke.  They are primed for one of their biggest efforts of the season.

Duke is not playing well right now.  The Blue Devils are 2-1 SU by 0-2-1 ATS in their last three games overall and consistently getting too much respect.  They only beat Georgia Tech by 5 as 17.5-point home favorites, lost outright to Pitt by 4 as 12-point home favorites and won by 14 at Louisville as 14-point favorites.  Duke played on Tuesday and only had three days to get ready for Clemson.

Duke is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after scoring 75 points or more in four consecutive games.  The Blue Devils are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after going over the total in three consecutive games.  Clemson is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games after playing five consecutive games as a favorite.  The Tigers are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 games vs. teams that make 8 or more 3-pointers per game.  Bet Clemson Saturday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Florida State +7.5

This is a great spot to 'sell high' on the North Carolina Tar Heels.  They are 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  But now they are laying 7.5-point on the road to Florida State after being 3-point underdogs at Clemson.  That just shows you how big of an adjustment they have made on UNC, and it's too big.

Florida State wants revenge from a 78-70 road loss at North Carolina as 12-point dogs in their first meeting this season back on December 2nd.  But that was a bad FSU team at the time, and this is a much improved team under Leonard Hamilton now.  The Seminoles are 6-1 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall including upset road wins at Notre Dame, Miami and Syracuse all by 9 points or more.  But they aren't getting the kind of respect that UNC is.

The Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in ACC play this season.  The Tar Heels are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  Bet Florida State Saturday.

20* Horizon League GAME OF THE MONTH on Northern Kentucky -3.5

Northern Kentucky is playing its best basketball of the season right now.  The Norse are 4-2 SU & 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only two losses coming on the road at Cleveland State by 3 as 4.5-point dogs and at Oakland by 5 as 6-point dogs.  

The Norse are coming off a pair of blowout home wins over quality Horizon League teams.  They beat Milwaukee 90-72 as 2-point favorites and Green Bay 74-52 as 6-point favorites to improve to 8-1 SU & 6-1 ATS at home this season.  Now the Norse want revenge from a 73-60 loss at IPFW on December 29th in their first meeting this season.  They shot 5-of-22 (22.7%) from 3 and 11-of-21 (54.2%) from the FT line in that loss and can only improve.

IPFW is 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS in its last five games overall with three upset losses including a very bad 6-point home loss to IUPUI as 16.5-point favorites.  They lost by 8 at Youngstown State, by 3 at Robert Morris and by 7 at Cleveland State in their last three road games.  They are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.

Northern Kentucky is 4-0 SU in its last four home meetings with IPFW winning the last two by 20 and 10 points.  IPFW is 1-12 ATS in its last 13 January games.  NKU is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 games after covering four of its last five games ATS.  Bet Northern Kentucky Thursday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Valparaiso +14

Valparaiso has quietly gone 5-0 ATS in its last five games overall not once losing by more than 9 points.  That includes a 59-50 upset win at Illinois State as a 10-point dog.  The Beacons only lost by 9 as 9.5-point home dogs to Southern Illinois.

Now Valparaiso is out for revenge on the Salukis and catching 14 points in the rematch on the road.  This number is too high, especially when you consider how poorly SIU is playing of late.  This is a team that lost a lot in the transfer portal and wasn't able to replace that talent.

Southern Illinois is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall losing by 18 at home to Drake, by 1 at home to Bradley and by 4 at Northern Iowa.  The Salukis just don't have the same kind of home-court advantage this season that they have in years' past.  They won't be all that motivated to beat Valpo a second time this season.

Valparaiso is 7-1 ATS as a road underdog or PK this season.  The Beacons are 6-0 ATS vs. poor pressure teams that force 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  Southern Illinois ranks 341st in adjusted tempo, making it hard for them to get margin because there just aren't enough possessions.  Bet Valparaiso Wednesday.

20* Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on Duquesne ML -125

This is a great time to 'buy low' on the Duquesne Dukes.  They have opened 0-5 SU &1-4 ATS in conference play and will be highly motivated for their first conference victory tonight.  They have played a brutal schedule with road games at UMass, Loyola-Chicago and St. Joe's as well as home losses to Dayton and Richmond.  They were competitive in all five games including a pair of 2-point losses in their last two.

St. Bonaventure is a team Duquesne can handle tonight.  They have opened 2-3 SU & 2-3 ATS in conference play including road losses by 11 at Richmond and by 9 at George Mason in their last two games away from home.  The home team is 3-0 SU in the last three meetings in this head-to-head series.

St. Bonaventure is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games with a total set of 140 to 149.5.  Bet Duquesne Tuesday.

20* Texas/Oklahoma ESPN No-Brainer on Oklahoma -4.5

Oklahoma has lost its last three meetings with Texas by a combined 5 points total.  It's safe to say the Sooners will be out for revenge tonight, and they finally have the goods to get that revenge.  Porter Moser's team is his best in Norman, while the Texas Longhorns have been one of the most overrated teams in the country this season.

Oklahoma is 15-3 SU this season including 11-0 SU & 7-4 ATS at home.  The Sooners won and covered both Big 12 home games this season beating Iowa State by 8 as 1.5-point favorites and West Virginia by 14 as 12.5-point home favorites.  I have no doubt they win this game by 5-plus points over Texas tonight.

The Longhorns are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall.  They lost by 21 at Marquette, won by 1 at Cincinnati and lost outright at West Virginia as 6-point favorites in their three true road games this season.  This is a letdown spot for Texas as well coming off a win over Baylor at the buzzer over the weekend.  That followed up an upset loss to UCF as 8.5-point home favorites.

Texas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games off a close win by 3 points or less.  The Longhorns are 1-8 ATS in its last nine road games vs. top caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Tuesday.

20* Wake Forest/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on OVER 155.5

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons rank 28th in adjusted offense and are scoring 81.1 points per game this season.  They have scored at least 82 points in eight of their last 10 games overall and 76 or more in nine of 10 with the lone exception being against Virginia, which is a dead nuts under team.

North Carolina is also an OVER team ranking 53rd in adjusted tempo and 15th in adjusted offense.  The Tar Heels are scoring 83.4 points per game this season.  I expect the Tar Heels to get 80-plus in this one and the Demon Deacons to likely get close or exceed 80 as well.

The OVER is 5-0 in the last five meetings with 177, 167, 174, 153 and 176 combined points in those five meetings.  They have averaged 169.4 combined points per game in those five, which is roughly 14 points more than this 155.5-point total.  There is serious value on the OVER as a result.

Wake Forest is 14-1 OVER in its last 15 January games.  The Demon Deacons are 8-0 OVER in their last eight games following a blowout win by 20 points or more.  Wake Forest is 11-1 OVER in its last 12 games after scoring 85 points or more.  Bet the OVER in this game Monday.

20* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH on Boston College +8.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels are overvalued after going 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.  They were in a sleepy spot against Louisville at home last time out and needed a late run to pull away and win by 16 as 21-point favorites.  Now they are once again in a sleepy spot and laying too many points on the road at Boston College today.

Boston College has had the last four days off to get ready for UNC while the Tar Heels have only had the last two days off, so the Eagles have a big rest and preparation advantage.  I like what I've seen from this team especially at home where Boston College is 7-2 SU with both losses coming by 6 points each.  They haven't lost at home by this kind of margin all season, making for a 9-0 system backing the Eagles pertaining to this 8.5-point spread.

UNC is 6-15 ATS in its last 21 road games vs. a team with a winning record.  Boston College is 14-5 ATS in its last 19 games vs. good rebounding teams that outrebound their opponents by 4-plus boards per game.  We'll 'buy low' on the Eagles who are 1-5 ATS in their last six games and 'sell high' on the Tar Heels today.  Bet Boston College Saturday.

20* Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Arizona State -2

I love this spot for Arizona State.  They are coming off consecutive losses at Washington and at home to UCLA and will be highly motivated for a victory as a result.  They had won four consecutive games prior to these losses with four outright wins as underdogs.  Now they are back home where they are 7-1 SU this season.

They take on an injury-ravaged USC team that is 0-3 SU in its last three games overall losing by 8 at home to Washington State, by 10 at Colorado and by 15 at Arizona.  It won't get any easier for them today because of these injuries.  USC is without Isaiah Collier (15.4 PPG, 4.1 RPG), and both Boogie Ellis (18.7 PPG) and DJ Rodman (7.3 PPG, 4.5 RPG) are questionable.  If all three are out, they will be without three of their top four scorers.  It's too much to overcome even if they are only without Collier.  Bet Arizona State Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Louisville/Wake Forest OVER 151

Wake Forest is a dead nuts OVER team.  The Demon Deacons rank 30th in adjusted offense and are scoring 80.6 points per game this season.  They have scored at least 82 points in seven of their last nine games overall and 76 or more in eight of nine with the lone exception being against Virginia, which is a dead nuts under team.

Louisville has scored 70-plus points in six of its last seven games with the lone exception being against Virginia.  The Cardinals are a decent offensive team ranking 167th in adjusted offense but just 239th in adjusted defense.  I think Louisville gets 70-plus and Wake Forest gets 80-plus in this one for us to cash this OVER ticket.

The Demon Deacons haven't had sharp-shooter Damari Monsanto (13.3 PPG last year) all season but he makes his much-anticipated return from injury today.  Wake Forest and Louisville have combined for 152 and 176 points in their last two meetings.  Wake Forest is 13-1 OVER in its last 14 January games.  Louisville is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 road games after losing 8 or more of its last 10 games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Thursday Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-San Diego +6.5

UC-San Diego has quietly gone 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS in its last seven games overall.  The Tritons' only loss came by 4 as 9-point dogs at California.  Earlier this season, they only lost by 1 to San Diego State as 13.5-point dogs.  They haven't lost any of their last 10 games by more than 6 points.  This team is grossly undervalued right now.

UC-Irvine is 5-1 SU but just 2-4 ATS in its last six games overall.  The Anteaters have been living good winning a bunch of close games, especially at home.  They won by 7 as 12-point favorites over UC-Riverside, by 8 as 12-point favorites over CS-Fullerton and by 3 as 9-point favorites over UC-Davis.  Their luck may run out tonight against a Tritons team that is more than capable of pulling off the upset.

San Diego is 11-4 ATS in all games this season.  Irvine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after a game where they made 88% of their free throws or better.  The Anteaters are 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games after winning six or seven of their last eight games.  The Tritons won outright as 12.5-point underdogs at Irvine last season.  Bet UC-San Diego Thursday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Vanderbilt +11.5

The Vanderbilt Commodores are catching too many points tonight at home against Auburn.  The Commodores have quietly gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall losing by 2 as 15.5-point dogs at Memphis, beating Dartmouth by 16 as 13.5-point home favorites, losing by 3 as 12.5-point home dogs to Alabama and losing by 8 as 8.5-point dogs at LSU.  They were even competitive in their 13-point loss at Ole Miss as 10-point dogs, and that's an Ole Miss team that is 15-1 this season.

If the Commodores can nearly upset Alabama at home and Memphis on the road, they can certainly stay within 11.5 points of Auburn.  It's time to 'sell high' on the Tigers, who have gone 9-0 SU & 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall against a pretty soft schedule.  They have only played two true road games all season and one of them resulted in an upset loss at Appalachian State as 7.5-point favorites.

Vanderbilt is 12-3 SU & 8-5 ATS in its last 15 home meetings with Auburn.  The Commodores upset the Tigers 67-65 as 3-point home dogs last season.  Plays against road teams as a favorite or PK (Auburn) - a hot team having covered six or seven of its last eight games, a top-level team winning 80% of its games or more against a losing team are 45-12 (78.9%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Vanderbilt Wednesday.

20* Mississippi State/Kentucky ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Kentucky -6.5

This is one of the best Kentucky teams that John Calipari has had in his tenure in Lexington which is saying a lot.  The Wildcats are 12-3 SU & 10-5 ATS this season and have been undervalued.  I love the spot for the Wildcats after getting humbled on the road with an OT loss at Texas A&M.

Now the Wildcats are back home where they are 8-1 this season and outscoring opponents by 21.3 points per game.  They host a Mississippi State team that has only played two true road games all season, and both resulted in upset losses by 8 as 8.5-point favorites at Georgia Tech and by 6 as 3-point favorites at South Carolina.

Kentucky is 8-0 SU in its last eight home meetings with Mississippi State with all eight wins coming by 6 points or more.  Bet Kentucky Wednesday.

20* Big Ten GAME OF THE WEEK on Indiana +10.5

We've already seen Purdue suffer both of their losses on the Big Ten highway this season.  They lost 92-88 as 5-point favorites at Northwestern and 88-72 as 7.5-point favorites at Nebraska.  They should not be laying 10.5 points on the road at Indiana tonight.

The Hoosiers are 9-1 SU at home this season with their lone loss coming to Kansas by 4 as 7-point dogs.  They led that game 90% of the way and only lost it in the final minutes.  They beat Minnesota by 12, Ohio State by 6 and Maryland by 12.  Assembly Hall is one of the toughest places to play in the country.

Mike Woodson and the Hoosiers have had Matt Painter and the Boilermakers' number in recent meetings.  Indiana is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings with Purdue.  They won outright 79-71 as 7-point road dogs, 79-74 as 1.5-point home favorites, only lost by 2 as 10-point road dogs and won by 3 as 4-point home dogs.

Purdue is 4-13 ATS in its last 17 games as a road favorite or PK.  The Boilermakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record 15-plus games into the season.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six games vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games.  The Hoosiers are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games vs. top-caliber teams that outscore their opponents by 12-plus points pre game.  Bet Indiana Tuesday.

20* Iowa/Minnesota Big Ten No-Brainer on Minnesota -1

The Minnesota Golden Gophers are one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball. They are 12-0 SU & 14-2 ATS this season, including 11-1 SU & 12-0 ATS at home. Their only home loss came when they blew a 20-plus point 2H lead to Missouri in a 2-point defeat. They beat Nebraska and Maryland at home in Big Ten play.

The Iowa Hawkeyes have always had huge home/road splits under Fran McCaffrey. That's the case again this season as the Hawkeyes are terrible on the road. The Hawkeyes are 0-4 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games this season, losing by 8 at Creighton, by 19 at Purdue, by 25 at Iowa State and by 11 at Wisconsin.

Minnesota is 10-0 ATS as a favorite this season. The Golden Gophers are 10-1 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season. Bet Minnesota Monday.

20* Washington/UCLA Pac-12 No-Brainer on Washington PK

The UCLA Bruins continue to get too much respect for what they did in previous seasons.  But this is a dreadful UCLA team and one of the worst we have seen this century.  The books have failed to catch up to how poor this team really is.

UCLA is 2-8 SU & 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games overall.  The two wins came against UC-Riverside by 1 as 17.5-point favorites and Oregon State by 7 as 6.5-point favorites.  They were upset at home by CS-Northridge as 17.5-point favorites, upset at home by Maryland by 9, upset at home by Stanford by 6 and upset by California at home by 9.

The Bruins hit rock bottom last time out with a 90-44 road loss at Utah. The team looked to have quit on head coach Mick Cronin. It's not going to get any easier for the Utes today against an underrated Washington team.

The Huskies have gone 10-6 this season against the 29th-toughest schedule in the country. They rank 40th in adjusted offense and 81st in adjusted defense as a very balanced team. All six of their losses came by 7 points or less, so they are close to being much better than 10-6.

Washington is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games with a line of +3 to -3. The Huskies are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 road games after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread. Washington is 12-1 ATS in its last 13 road games following two consecutive home games. UCLA is 1-7 ATS in all home games this season. Bet Washington Sunday.

20* Big 12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State +13.5

The Iowa State Cyclones are in a massive letdown spot today. They are coming off a 57-53 upset home win over No. 2 Houston. They won't be nearly as motivated to beat Oklahoma State, and that will make it difficult for them to cover this inflated 13.5-point spread.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Cowboys off consecutive losses to Baylor and Texas Tech. This is an Oklahoma State team that just has Iowa State's number. The Cowboys are 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in their last three meetings with the Cyclones including two upset road wins by 8 as 6.5-point dogs and by 17 as 4-point dogs.

Plays against favorites of 10 to 19.5 points (Iowa State) - a hot team having covered 6 or 7 or their last 8 games ATS who are also winning 80% or more of their games on the season are 91-50 (64.5%) ATS over the last five seasons. It's time to 'sell high' on the Cyclones. Bet Oklahoma State Saturday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Southern Illinois +3

The Drake Bulldogs are coming off a massive 89-78 home win over Indiana State. It's time to 'sell high' on the Bulldogs now as they are road favorites at Southern Illinois when they shouldn't be favored at all.

Drake has been very disappointing in its last two road games. The Bulldogs lost outright as 5.5-point favorites at UAB. Then they lost outright by 22 as 5.5-point favorites at Belmont.

Now they must take on a Southern Illinois team that has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the MVC. The Salukis are 9-1 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season. They beat Belmont by 10, Illinois-Chicago by 12, St. Louis by 39 and also upset Oklahoma State at home.

Drake is 0-6 ATS in its last six games off a home win where they scored 85 points or more. Bet Southern Illinois Saturday.

20* MWC GAME OF THE WEEK on New Mexico -2.5

New Mexico has one of the best home-court advantages in the country inside 'The Pit'. The Lobos are 8-0 at home this season and will take down the San Diego State Aztecs today.

San Diego State is 1-3 ATS in its last 4 road games this season. The Aztecs only beat San Jose State by 3 as 10-point favorites, lost outright at Grand Canyon by 6 as 2.5-point favorites and only beat UCSD by 1 as 13.5-point favorites. This will be their toughest road test of the season today. Bet New Mexico Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Washington State/USC OVER 146

The USC Trojans are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 12-3 OVER in all games this season and 6-1 OVER at home.  The Trojans have some of the best talent in the entire country offensively, but they play very little defense.

We have really seen that play out over the past couple months with the OVER 9-1 in USC's last 10 games overall.  USC and their opponents have combined for 156 or more points in seven of their last nine games overall.  So this 146-point total is very low for a game involving USC.

The Trojans will control the tempo playing at home and will force Washington State to run with them.  Washington State just played a 89-84 shootout with Oregon last time out in a game that saw 173 combined points.  Oregon has a similar profile to USC.

USC is 8-1 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  USC and Washington State combined for 150 and 152 points in their two meetings last season.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Tuesday UPSET SHOCKER on Iowa State ML +125

The Houston Cougars are 14-0 this season.  They have once again benefited from playing the 171st-ranked schedule in the country, plus a home-heavy schedule in the non-conference at that.  But now they must face their stiffest test of the season on the road against a Big 12 opponent in the Iowa State Cyclones.

Houston has only played one true road game this season and struggled in a 66-60 win as 8.5-point favorites at Xavier.  The Cougars aren't used to having to play in hostile road atmospheres after previously playing in the American Athletic.  The Big 12 highway is a different animal, especially at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, IA.

Iowa State is 9-0 SU & 8-1 ATS at home this season.  The Cyclones are outscoring opponents by a whopping 38.1 points per game at home.  We don't need the points tonight.  Bet Iowa State on the Money Line Tuesday.

20* MVC GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -4

Bradley is 9-5 against the 82nd-toughest schedule in the country.  Missouri State is 9-5 against the 274th-ranked schedule in the country.  That nearly 200-spot difference in strength of schedule is a big reason I'm laying the points with Bradley at home today.

Missouri State has not looked good on the road this season.  They are 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS in true road games losing by 17 at Drake, by 4 at Middle Tennessee and by 1 at Tulsa.  Bradley is on Drake's level and a contender to win the MVC.  They will prove it today.

Bradley won both meetings with Missouri State last season.  They won 58-40 as 2.5-point road dogs and 64-54 as 9.5-point home favorites.  Bradley has one of the best home-court advantages in the country going 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games.

The Braves are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 home games off a win by 10 points or more.  Missouri State is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games after allowing 65 points or fewer in two consecutive games.  Bet Bradley Saturday.

20* Pac-12 TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Stanford/USC OVER 150.5

The USC Trojans are a dead nuts OVER team.  They are 11-3 OVER in all games this season, including 5-1 OVER at home where they are scoring 82.2 points per game.  The Trojans rank 82nd in adjusted tempo and are an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team.  They have allowed at least 78 points in six of their last eight games overall, including 86 to a bad Oregon State offense.

Stanford ranks 122nd in adjusted tempo and 29th in effective field goal percentage.  The Cardinal are 9-4 OVER in all games this season.  They just hung 100 points in an upset win over Arizona two games back.  They went for 160 combined points with USC in their last trip to face the Trojans.

USC is 7-1 OVER vs. a team with a winning record this season.  Stanford is 13-4 OVER in its last 17 games vs. good shooting teams that make 45% of their shots or better.  USC and their opponents have combined for at least 156 points in seven of their last eight games overall.  They are 8-1 OVER in their last nine games.  Bet the OVER in this game Saturday.

20* CBB Thursday No-Doubt Rout on Hofstra -1

Hofstra is 1-4 SU in its last five games overall with all four losses coming on the road to Saint Louis, Duke, UNLV and St. John's.  They only lost by 5 to a very good St. John's team last time out.  They will be highly motivated for a victory when they return home tonight.

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Pride after losing four of their last five.  They have played a brutal schedule this season, a schedule that ranks 22nd-toughest in the entire country.  They have only played four home games all season and have shown well, beating South Florida 82-63 as 5.5-point home favorites and Norfolk State 74-58 as 9-point favorites in their last two home games.

It's a great time to 'sell high' on College of Charleston coming off five consecutive victories.  All five wins came at home against a very soft schedule.  They were last seen on the road losing 90-74 at Florida Atlantic as 14-point dogs on December 10th.  They also lost by 18 to Duquesne, by 9 to Vermont and by 7 to Wyoming on a neutral earlier this season.

Hofstra is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 games as a favorite.  The Price are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 conference games.  Hofstra is 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games after four straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Hofstra Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on California/USC OVER 151.5

USC is really a dead nuts OVER team with loads of offensive talent but poor defensive chemistry.  That's why the Trojans are just 6-7 this season despite having so much talent.  They rank 84th in adjusted tempo, 63rd in adjusted offense and 84th in adjusted defense.

The Trojans just allowed 86 points to Oregon State, which is one of the worst offensive teams in the country.  They also allowed 82 points to Oregon the game before, plus 91 to Auburn, 84 to Long Beach State and 89 to Gonzaga recently.

California just allowed 100 points to Arizona, 88 to Ole Miss and 97 to Butler in some recent games.  The Golden Bears rank 120th in adjusted offense but just 237th in adjusted defense.  They also play faster than most teams ranking 169th in adjusted tempo.

California is 7-0 OVER as an underdog this season.  USC is 10-3 OVER in all games this season.  USC is 8-1 OVER in its last nine home games vs. a team with a losing record.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* Drake/UAB CBB No-Brainer on Drake -3

The Drake Bulldogs are one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  They should have beaten Miami in the NCAA Tournament but blew a double-digit lead late.  Miami went on to the Final Four.  Drake brought back almost everyone from that team and is off to an 11-1 start this season.

UAB has been one of the best mid-major programs in the country for the last handful of years.  However, that's clearly no longer the case when you look at the results for the Blazers thus far.  But they are still getting respect for what they have done in the past, so there is value in fading them still.

UAB is 6-5 SU & 4-6 ATS this season with some very troubling results.  They only beat Alcorn State by 3 as 16.5-point favorites.  That gives them a common opponent with Drake, which just beat Alcorn State 92-55 as 18-point favorites.  That result tells you all you need to know.

But UAB has also lost at home to McNeese State by 21 as 5.5-point favorites, was upset at home by Southern Miss as 9.5-point favorites, and got crushed at Arkansas State by 19 as 4.5-point favorites.  UAB is now 1-9 ATS in its last 10 December games.  The Blazers won't have much of a home-court advantage at all with this being an afternoon game at 3:00 EST and students home for Christmas.  I expect the Bulldogs to treat this as a business trip.  Bet Drake Friday.

20* CBB GAME OF THE MONTH on Oakland +16.5

Oakland is one of the most underrated teams in all of college basketball.  The Golden Grizzlies have gone 6-5 SU & 9-2 ATS this season.  They upset Xavier as 15-point road dogs, only lost to Ohio State by 6 as 19.5-point road dogs and only lost to Illinois by 11 as 24-point road dogs.  They have shown they can play with the big boys, and they will give Michigan State a run for its money tonight.

Michigan State has been one of the most overrated teams in the country.  The Spartans are 5-5 SU & 4-6 ATS this season despite coming into the season being ranked in the Top 5 in the country.  They lost outright at home to James Madison as a 16.5-point favorite and lost outright to Wisconsin by 13 as a 5-point home favorite.

The spot really favors Oakland tonight.  They have had the last 9 days off to rest and prepare to play Michigan State.  The Spartans are coming off an upset win over Baylor in Detroit on Saturday to hand the Bears their first loss of the season.  They are in a letdown spot off that win, and they won't be prepared to face Oakland with just one day to get ready for them.

Oakland is 8-0 ATS off a non-conference game this season.  The Golden Grizzlies are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 road games following a win.  Oakland only lost by 13 to Michigan State last year and by 12 to the Spartans the year prior.  They are getting too many points once again here in this annual meeting.  Bet Oakland Monday.

20* Arizona/Purdue No-Brainer on Arizona PK

The Arizona Wildcats look like the best team in the country and continue to lack the respect they deserves.  The Wildcats are 8-0 SU & 8-0 ATS this season, outscoring opponents by 30.1 points per game on average.  They have the big men inside that will finally give Purdue trouble.

We've seen Arizona already handle a pair of Big Ten teams in Wisconsin 98-73 and Michigan State 74-68.  The Wildcats also went on the road and beat Duke 78-73, handing the Blue Devils their first loss at Cameron Indoor in a couple seasons.

Purdue lost 92-88 (OT) to Northwestern.  The Boilermakers have had to escape with several victories, beating Gonzaga by 10, Tennessee by 4, Marquette by 3 and Alabama by 6.  Their luck runs out today against a superior team here in Arizona, which ranks 2nd in adjusted defense and 6th in adjusted offense, the only team to rank in the top 6 in both categories this season.  Bet Arizona Saturday.

20* Kansas/Indiana CBS No-Brainer on Indiana +8

The Indiana Hoosiers have one of the best home-court advantages in the country.  They should not be catching 8 points at home to the Kansas Jayhawks today in what is going to be a hostile atmosphere for the visitors.

Indiana is 4-0 at home this season, which includes a 65-53 win over Maryland as 2-point favorites.  The Jayhawks are a very motivated team coming off their worst loss of the season to Auburn on a neutral.  Their only other loss came to defending champion UConn on a neutral.

Kansas will be playing its first true road game of the season.  The Jayhawks got to host UConn and were fortunate to come away with a victory.  They are also coming off a 73-64 home win over Missouri as a 13-point favorite.  Off those two big wins recently, I don't think we get their best effort today, especially in their first road game.

Indiana is 6-0 ATS in its last six home games vs. top-level teams that win more than 80% of their games on the season.  It is actually outscoring opponents by 13.3 points per game in this spot.  Plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Indiana) - after losing by 18 or more points ATS last game, in non-conference games between two teams from power conferences are 23-6 (79.3%) ATS over the last five seasons.  This is a 'buy low' spot on the Hoosiers off that loss to Auburn.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Colorado/Miami ESPN 2 No-Brainer on Miami PK

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 16.5 points, Norchad Omier averaging 16.1 points and a team-high 9.8 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 13.5 points and 4.1 assists.

Bensley Joseph (9.1 PPG, 3.3 APG, 2.1 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and is a Swiss army knife, doing a little bit of everything for this team.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 14.8 points and 4.4 rebounds.  This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.

Miami is 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS this season with their lone loss coming on the road at Kentucky.  Now they are on a neutral where they have thrived in recent seasons making deep runs into the NCAA Tournament.  They take on a Colorado team that is getting too much respect from the books.

Colorado is 6-2 this season with 5-0 at home against weak competition and 1-2 in road/neutral games.  They only beat Richmond by 5 as 9-point favorites on a neutral, lost outright to Florida State by 6 as 6-point favorites on a neutral, and lost by 5 at Colorado State as 3.5-point dogs.  The Buffaloes have some of the biggest home/road splits in all of college basketball for years.  This will be an early body clock game for them tipping at 2:00 EST, and they aren't used to playing this early in the day.

Colorado is 0-7 ATS in its last seven road games following a win by 10 points or more.  Miami is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 road games after playing a home game.  The Hurricanes are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games with a line of +3 to -3.  Bet Miami Sunday.

20* CBB Saturday Late-Night BAILOUT on UC-Irvine +10

UC-Irvine is one of the better mid-major teams in the country.  The Anteaters are 6-3 SU & 6-2 ATS this season.  They pulled the 70-60 upset as 12.5-point dogs at USC.  They did lose by 4 at Duquesne as 5.5-point dogs and by 10 at Utah State as 6.5-point dogs, so they have been through the gauntlet.  They have faced the 25th-toughest schedule in the entire country and won't be phased by San Diego State.

The Aztecs came into this season way overvalued after making the championship game of the NCAA Tournament last year.  San Diego State is 7-2 SU but 2-6 ATS this season.  They are fortunate to have escaped with a bunch of close wins over bad teams.  They lost at BYU by 9 in and only beat Cal San Diego by 1 as 13.5-point road favorites in their only two true road games.  They also failed to cover in a 12-point win over Long Beach State, a 3-point win over Washington and a 9-point win over California.  They only beat Division II Point Loma by 20 at home prior to that 1-point escape at Cal San Diego.  They were upset by Grand Canyon last time out.  They have no business being double-digit favorites here.

UC-Irvine is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games vs. good offensive teams that score 77 or more points per game.  The Anteaters are 35-12 ATS in their last 47 road games off a road loss by 10 points or more.  Bet UC-Irvine Saturday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma -3.5

Porter Moser is building a juggernaut at Oklahoma like he did at Loyola-Chicago before.  The fruits of his labor are paying off this season as the Sooners are 8-0 SU & 6-2 ATS this season.  They have six home wins all by 21 points or more, plus impressive neutral court wins over both Iowa (79-67) and USC (72-70).

This won't be a home game but it might as well be played in Tulsa, Oklahoma.  They take on an Arkansas team that just hasn't fare well at all away from home.  The Razorbacks are 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS in neutral court games this season.  They only beat Stanford by 3 as 6.5-point favorites, were upset by 5 by Memphis and were crushed by 15 by North Carolina.  The Razorbacks are getting too much respect for their recent upset home win over Duke.

Arkansas is 0-6 ATS after playing a game as a favorite this season.  The Razorbacks are 6-18 ATS in their last 24 road games vs. explosive offensive teams scoring 84 or more points per game.  Bet Oklahoma Saturday.

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Grand Canyon +5.5

Grand Canyon is one of the best mid-major teams in the country.  The Antelopes are 7-1 SU & 5-3 ATS this season.  They beat San Diego State and San Francisco already this season.  And now they will give Liberty all they can handle.

Liberty is 7-2 SU & 6-2 ATS and getting a lot of respect from oddsmakers from what they did against some soft competition.  When they stepped up in class they lost 83-58 to Florida Atlantic and didn't look like they belonged at all.  They followed that up with a 76-67 upset loss to Charleston.

Liberty is 2-13 ATS in its last 15 games with a total set of 140 to 149.9 points.  Grand Canyon is 31-15 ATS in its last 46 games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game.  Bryce Drew is 16-7 ATS as an underdog as the coach of the Antelopes.  Drew is 9-2 ATS vs. good teams outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points per game as their head coach.  Bet Grand Canyon Saturday.

20* Iowa/Iowa State ESPNU No-Brainer on UNDER 156

The Iowa State Cyclones have been one of the best defensive teams in the country since TJ Otzelberger took over.  They rank 9th in the entire country in adjusted defense to this point.  They don't allow anything in transition ranking 340th in average length of opponents possessions.  The Cyclones will control the tempo playing at home.

Iowa's offense has huge home/road splits under Fran McCaffery.  They don't score nearly as many points on the road as they do at home.  That was in display against Purdue last time out as the Boilermakers held them to just 68 points.  The Cyclones will have similar success in slowing them down.  Iowa State also has inconsistent shooting again this season.

The last two meetings between Iowa and Iowa State have seen just 131 and 126 combined points.  Iowa is 8-0 UNDER in its last eight road games after winning two of its last three games.  Iowa State is 26-11 UNDER in its last 37 non-conference games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Hofstra/Iona OVER 148.5

Hofstra is an elite offensive team scoring 84.9 points per game on 49.4% shooting including 40.1% from 3-point range.  Iona has been pretty good offensively this season as well scoring 75.0 points per game including 37.4% from 3-point range.  Hofstra ranks 22nd in 3-point percentage while Iona ranks 51st.

A quick look at the recent head-to-head history shows there is value with the OVER.  Indeed, the OVER is 7-0 in the last seven meetings.  Iona and Hofstra have combined for at least 149 points in each of their last five meetings.  They have combined for 161, 156 and 156 points in their three meetings over the past three seasons.  Bet the OVER in this game Wednesday.

20* FAU/Illinois ESPN No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic -2

Florida Atlantic made the Final 4 last year and brought back all 5 starters from that team.  You would think this team would have been overvalued given that's the case, but it has been completely opposite.  FAU has been exceeding expectations again going 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS with impressive wins over Butler, Loyola-Chicago, Texas A&M, VA Tech, Liberty and Charleston.

FAU ranks 7th in adjusted offense and 37th in adjusted defense.  The Owls have played the 52nd-toughest schedule in the country.  And the strength of schedule discrepancy between them and Illinois (345th) is a big reason I'm taking the Owls tonight.

Illinois is 6-1 this season but against a weak schedule.  They lost their toughest game, a 71-64 home loss to Marquette.  They have a road win over Rutgers, which is way down this season.  And their five home wins have come against teams that are ranked 145th or worse, including four against teams ranked 274th or worse.

FAU is 18-4 ATS in its last 22 non-conference games.  The Owls are 14-1 ATS in their last 15 games following three consecutive non-conference games.  Oddsmakers just can't catch up to how good this team really is, and they failed to do so again tonight.  Bet Florida Atlantic Tuesday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Bradley -3.5

The Bradley Braves are 6-0 SU & 5-0-1 ATS this season despite facing a tough schedule that ranks 149th in the country.  They have beaten the likes of Utah State (61st in KenPom), Tulane (99th), Vermont (119th) and UAB (127th).  All six wins have come against teams that rank in the Top 166.

Murray State is 2-3 SU & 1-3 ATS this season despite facing the 295th-ranked schedule in the country.  They lost to Western Kentucky by 5 as 1-point home favorites, UNC Wilmington as 5.5-point dogs on a neutral, by 10 to Appalachian State by 2.5-point dogs on a neutral and only beat Tennessee Tech by 6 as 12.5-point home favorites in their lone win against a Division 1 team.

Steve Prohm is one of my favorite head coaches to fade, while Brian Wardle is one of my favorite head coaches to back.  Prohm is 0-6 ATS in home games following a non-conference game as the coach of Murray State.

Bradley is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 games as a favorite.  The Braves are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a bad team that wins 20-40% of their games.  This is an absolute mismatch and the Braves should be bigger favorites tonight.  Bet Bradley Wednesday.

20* Miami/Kentucky ESPN No-Brainer on Miami +7.5

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 18.0 points, Norchad Omier averaging 15.8 points and a team-high 9.2 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 16.0 points and 4.0 assists.

Bensley Joseph (11.6 PPG, 4.2 APG, 2.4 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and is a swiss army knife, doing a little bit of everything for this team.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 16.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 2.4 assists.  This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.

Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites.  They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to the Bahamas Championship Tournament.  But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites and topping Kansas State 91-83 as 3-point favorites.  Now I expect the Hurricanes to give Kentucky a run for its money tonight.

Kentucky lost 89-84 to Kansas as 7-point underdogs on a neutral in its lone game against a decent opponent this season.  They failed to cover as massive home favorites against Texas A&M Community College, Stonehill and St. Joseph's while also beating up on bad New Mexico State and Marshall teams.  They needed OT to beat St. Joe's as a 15-point home favorite just two games ago.  They are missing some key 7-footers inside right now and are all guard-oriented, which makes this a great matchup for Miami, which has some of the best guards in the country plus Omier inside.

Kentucky is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game.  Miami is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 games as a road underdog or PK.  The Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last seven road games vs. good 3-point shooting teams that make 37% or better.  The Hurricanes are a veteran team that relishes these challenges on the road in hostile environments.  Bet Miami Tuesday. 

20* CBB DOG OF THE WEEK on Monmouth +6

Monmouth has been undervalued this season at 4-2 SU & 4-1-1 ATS and the Hawks continue to be undervalued here as 6-point underdogs to the Penn Quakers.  Monmouth won outright as a 14.5-point dog at West Virginia earlier this season.

These teams have two common opponents the last two days, and it's easy to see Monmouth is the better team when looking at this results.  Monmouth beat Belmont 93-84 and beat Lafayette 63-53.  Penn only beat Lafayette 74-72 and lost outright to Belmont 84-79.

But the kicker here is that Penn went to OT against Belmont yesterday and will be the more tired team as a result.  Their three best players played 43, 36 and 35 minutes in that OT loss and won't have much left in the tank for Monmouth, which was able to rest its starters late yesterday due to the blowout nature of their game against Lafayette.  Nobody played more than 29 minutes for them yesterday.

Monmouth is 6-0 ATS in its last six road games after allowing 60 points or less.  Penn is 15-30 ATS in its last 45 home games after a loss by 6 points or less.  Plays on road teams (Monmouth) - after beating the spread by 30 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games between two teams from mid-major conferences are 22-4 (84.6%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Monmouth Sunday.

20* Alabama/Ohio State Emerald Coast Classic No-Brainer on Alabama -6

Alabama is absolutely loaded this season.  The Crimson Tide are 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS while scoring at least 98 points in every game thus far.  They beat Morehead State 105-73 as 22-point favorites, topped a very good Indiana State team 102-80 as 18-point home favorites,crushed South Alabama 102-46 as 20.5-point favorites and covered in a 98-67 win over Mercer as 30.5-point favorites.  They have covered their first four spreads by a combined 50 points and remain undervalued here.

Ohio State has been very disappointing thus far and the results lead me to believe they cannot hang with a team the caliber of Alabama.  The Buckeyes are 3-1 SU but 0-3-1 ATS this season.  They only beat Oakland by 6 as 19.5-point home favorites, lost to Texas A&M by 7 as 1.5-point home favorites, pushed in a 24-point win over Merrimack as 24-point favorites and failed to cover in a 17-point win over Western Michigan as 21.5-point home favorites.

Ohio State is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite.  Alabama is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 November games.  The Crimson Tide are 23-13 ATS in their last 36 games as favorites.  Alabama is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games vs. good ball-handling teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game.  Nate Oats is 12-2 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 6 to 12 points as the coach of the Crimson Tide.  Bet Alabama Friday.

20* Michigan State/Arizona FOX No-Brainer on Arizona -5

The Arizona Wildcats are absolutely loaded this season.  They are 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS despite being favored by 25 points or more four times, they covered all four.  They also upset Duke 78-73 as 5-point road underdogs, handing Duke their first loss at Cameron Indoor since current head coach Jon Scheyer took over for Coach K.

That gives these teams a common opponent as Michigan State lost 74-65 as 4-point underdogs on a neutral court to Duke.  I think that's a telling sign of how this game is going to go for the Spartans.  If they couldn't have with Duke on a neutral, they're certainly not going to be able to hang with Arizona.

Michigan State was also upset 79-76 as 16.5-point home favorites by James Madison earlier this season.  This team has been grossly overvalued since opening as a Top 5 team.  They don't have shooting as they are hitting just 26.3% from 3-point range this season.  Arizona shoots the 3 at a 41.5% clip to compare.

Plays against underdogs (Michigan State) - off a blowout win by 30 points or more against an opponent that has scored 75 points or more in five consecutive games are 26-6 (81.2%) ATS over the last five seasons.  Bet Arizona Thursday.

20* CBB Wednesday No-Doubt Rout on Indiana State -5.5

Indiana State is absolutely loaded this season.  The Sycamores are 3-1 SU & 2-1 ATS with their lone loss coming on the road at Alabama, which looks like it might be the best team in the country.  They beat IUPUI 96-57 as 17.5-point favorites and then Rice 103-88 as 6.5-point favorites yesterday.

Indiana State jumped out to a 55-34 halftime lead on Rice yesterday and was able to coast in the 2nd half to save up for Pepperdine today.  No player on Indiana State played more than 29 minutes yesterday, so they are going to be very fresh for Pepperdine.

The Waves are coming off two consecutive blowout losses to UNLV 82-68 as 2.5-point dogs and then UC-Irvine 76-60 as 5.5-point dogs yesterday.  Indiana State is better than both of those teams and the class of the MVC right alongside Bradley and Drake.  I expect another blowout victory in the Sycamores' favor today.

Indiana State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight games following two consecutive games where they made 10 or more 3-pointers.  Pepperdine is 1-8 ATS in its last nine games following a loss by 10 points or more.  The Waves are 0-7 ATS in thier last seven road games after scoring 60 points or less.  Pepperdine is 0-8 ATS in its last eight road games vs. good offensive teams scoring 77 or more points per game.  Bet Indiana State Wednesday.

20* UConn/Texas ESPNU No-Brainer on UConn -5.5

The UConn Huskies won the national title last season and are loaded again this season.  They are off to a 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS start this season with all four victories coming by 20 points or more.  That includes their 77-57 win as 11-point favorites over Indiana yesterday in the early game.

Since they blew out Indiana, they were able to rest their starters late.  They also played the early game yesterday while Texas played the night game.  So they got to rest even longer plus watch the Longhorns play after.  They will be the fresher team and will have the better game plan coming into this one as a result.

Texas is 0-3 ATS in its last three games overall and has been grossly overvalued.  After covering by a single point in the opener, they failed to cover by 5 against Delaware State, by 4.5 against Rice and by 16.5 against Louisville.  That 81-80 win as 17.5-point favorites over Louisville yesterday was alarming.  

Louisville is expected to be one of the worst Power 5 teams in the country after last season's 4-27 disaster.  Louisville was beaten in an exhibition game in the preseason.  They only beat UMBC by 1 as 7.5-point favorites and were upset by Chattanooga by 10 as 3.5-point favorites.  The fact that the Longhorns needed a buzzer-beater to beat Louisville is all you need to know about the state of their program this season, especially since they are without one of their best players in Dylan Disu.

UConn is 11-1 ATS in its last 12 neutral court games.  The Huskies are 14-0 ATS in their last 14 games following three consecutive non-conference games.  UConn is 19-2 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games.  Texas is 0-7 ATS in its last seven games after scoring 75 points or more in two consecutive games.  Bet UConn Monday.

20* Kansas State/Miami Bahamas Championship No-Brainer on Miami -2.5

The Miami Hurricanes made the Final 4 last year and brought back three starters from that team.  All three are off to good starts with Wooga Poplar averaging a team-high 28.8 points, Norchad Omier averaging 14.0 points and a team-high 9.8 rebounds, and Nijel Pack averaging 13.0 points and a team-high 5.0 assists.

Bensley Joseph (13.8 PPG, 3.0 SPG) has taken over a starting role this season and handled it very well.  Florida State transfer Matthew Cleveland took the place of NBA draft pick Jordan Miller, and he is filling those massive shoes nicely averaging 17.3 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists.  This team is absolutely loaded to say the least.

Miami blasted New Jersey Tech 101-60 as 25-point favorites in the opener and then easily handled UCF 88-72 as 9.5-point favorites.  They had a letdown against FIU in a non-cover in a 86-80 win, likely looking ahead to this Bahamas Championship Tournament.  But they got back to their covering ways, beating Georgia 79-67 as 8-point favorites.  And now I expect them to blast this overrated Kansas State team.

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

Kansas State has been unimpressive thus far.  The Wildcats lost 82-69 as 3-point dogs to USC on a neutral.  They only beat Bellarmine 83-75 as 16-point favorites in their next game.  After beating South Dakota State 91-68 and Providence 73-70 and covering both games, the Wildcats are now getting respect again.  But they aren't in the same class as this Miami team, and that will show today.  Bet Miami Sunday.

20* USC/Kansas State CBB Season Opener on USC -2.5

USC returns leading scorer Boogie Ellis, who averaged 17.7 points per game last season and is the USC Preseason Player of the Year.  They added ESPN's No. 1-ranked recruit in the class of 2023 in Isaiah Collier, who was named the co-MVP of the McDonald's All-American game after scoring 25 points.  

Junior guard Kobe Johnson and 6-foot-11 senior Joshua Morgan are both great defensively and can score.  7-foot-1 Vincent Iwuchukwu returns from a healthy scorer and senior DJ Rodman transfers in from Washington State.  They will be just fine as they await the debut of Bronny James, who had a health scare with his heart.

Kansas State is overvalued after making a run to the Elite 8 last year.  Gone to the NBA are Keyontae Johnson and Markquis Nowell, who combined to average 35 of K-State's 76.2 points per game last year.  The leading return scorer is Nae'Qwan Tomlin, who averaged 10.4 points and 5.9 boards last season.  But Tomlin is suspended to start the season, leaving the Wildcats with not much experience at all in what will be a rebuilding year.

This game will be played on a neutral court, but USC will have the crowd advantage with the short trip to Paradise, NV at T-Mobile Arena.  Andy Enfield is 9-1 ATS as a neutral court favorite of 3 points or less or PK as the coach of USC.  Bet USC Monday.

20* SDSU/UConn Championship Game No-Brainer on UConn -7

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama.  They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 8th in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 15th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense.  Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.

The Huskies have gone 5-0 SU & 5-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while COVERING those five games by an average of 16.1 points per game.  They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite, by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite and by 13 over Miami as a 5.5-point favorite. We are witnessing one of the greatest teams in NCAA Tournament history.

San Diego State is lucky to be here.  The Aztecs snuck by Charleston in the opener, and they became the first team in NCAA Tournament history to win their Elite 8 and Final 4 games by a single point each.  They needed a 14-point comeback against FAU in the 2H to win that game and never led in the 2H until the buzzer.  FAU gave up a five offensive rebounds on free throws alone to give the game away.

Well, UConn won't have a problem keeping San Diego State off the glass.  The Huskies rank 2nd in offensive rebounding and 63rd in allowing offensive rebounds.  San Diego State ranks 76th in offensive rebounding and 68th in allowing offensive rebounds.  The Huskies will win the battle on the boards.

But the biggest advantage the Huskies have here is at guard, where their guards are elite and the Aztecs come up short in that department.  Matt Bradley has been hit or miss and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%.  Their poor shooting is a big reason the Aztecs rank just 218th in effective field goal percentage offense.  These guards and San Diego State in general have a lot of heart, but unfortunately they don't have the talent to match that of the Huskies.

I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with four wins by 7 points or fewer.  Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%).  So those four teams shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament.  That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck.  FAU shot a more reasonable 9-of-22 (40.9%) against them and are a good shooting team like UConn that can spread you out with four good shooters on the court at all times.  The Huskies have made at least nine 3-pointers in all five Tournament games and shoot 36.3% from 3 on the season.

UConn is 16-0 SU & 15-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  It's clear the Big East was a lot better than it got credit for as the Huskies have destroyed everyone outside the conference.  It will be more of the same against the overmatched Aztecs as the Huskies pull off yet another dominant win in the Championship Game.  Bet UConn Monday.

20* Miami/UConn Final 4 No-Brainer on UConn -5

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.3 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG, 4.7 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

KenPom now has UConn as the No. 1 ranked team in the country based on all the data, even better than Houston and Alabama.  They have virtually no weaknesses, ranking 3rd in adjusted offense and 11th in adjusted defense.  They rank 8th in effective field goal percentage defense, 13th in 3-point percentage defense and 25th in block percentage defense.  Their completeness has really shown up in the Big Dance.

The Huskies have gone 4-0 SU & 4-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament while covering those four games by an average of 17.8 points per game.  They won by 24 over Iona as a 9.5-point favorite, by 15 over St. Mary's as a 4-point favorite, by 23 over Arkansas as a 3.5-point favorite and by 28 over Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite.

Miami needed a 9-point comeback in the final 5 minutes to beat Drake and a 13-point comeback in the final 12 minutes to beat Texas.  They did dominate both Houston and Indiana, and I take nothing away from them for those two victories.  No question Miami has the best trio of guards in this tournament, but opponents haven't exploited their biggest weakness, which is their defense, especially on the interior.

Drake, Indiana and Texas were all pretty weak on the interior at least defensively.  Texas was without its best big man in Dylan Disu, who was their best player dating back to the start of the NCAA Tournament.  UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebound rate grabbing 38.5% of its own misses.  Miami ranks 104th in adjusted defense, 207th in effective field goal percentage allowed and 179th in allowing offensive rebounds.  The Hurricanes will finally get punished for their defensive flaws in the Final 4.

Miami only has one productive big man in Norchad Omier, and he isn't going to be able to contain the three big men of UConn.  We saw how much Drew Timme struggled against them for Gonzaga and got into foul trouble and fouled out.  Omier will likely get into foul trouble in this one as UConn will keep attacking him with these big men, plus drives to the rim.  The Hurricanes are doomed if he gets in foul trouble, and probably doomed even if he doesn't as it's just too tall a task to ask of him to try and hang in the paint with UConn.  The Huskies are 28th in average height while the Hurricanes are 224th.

UConn is 15-0 SU & 14-1 ATS in non-conference games this season. Clearly, the Big East was better than it got credit for this season.  The Huskies are only 5-point favorites here while Houston was an 8-point favorite over Miami.  Again, KenPom has the Huskies as the better team than Houston, so comparing past lines there's value here with the favorite.  Bet UConn in the Final 4 Saturday.

20* FAU/San Diego State Final 4 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +2

I said going into the tournament that the FAU/Memphis winner would make a run to the Elite 8.  That's how high I was on both teams.  After backing Memphis in the Round of 64 against FAU, I have been on the Owls ever since.  They were fortunate to steal victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds against Memphis, and they have been riding that momentum and confidence ever since.

FAU was in a tough spot not being the cinderella against Fairleigh Dickinson, but managed to handle their business in a 78-70 victory.  They then came back and upset Tennessee 62-55, beating a Vols team that is very similar to this San Diego State squad.  And they made all the clutch free throws they needed to to hold off Kansas State in a 79-76 victory in the Elite 8.

FAU comes out of Conference USA, which is the best mid-major conference in the country.  That has been proven with C-USA teams going 17-1 SU in postseason tournaments this season.  Charlotte won the CBI, North Texas and UAB will play in the NIT Championship Game, and now FAU is in the Final 4.  The Owls have been more battle-tested than they get credit for playing in such a tough conference, and now with four consecutive wins in the NCAA Tournament to get here.

FAU has very few weaknesses.  They rank 24th in adjusted offense and 29th in adjusted defense.  They rank 25th in effective field goal percentage offense and 15th in effective field goal percentage defense.  They have five players on the court at all times that can hit 3-pointers.  Their four guard lineups are tough to tame, and versatile big man Vladislav Goldin (10.3 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.2 BPG, 62.7% FG's) is a matchup nightmare.  They go nine deep and all seven guards shoot at least 32.3% from 3, and four of the top five shoot at least 36.6% from 3.

A lot has been made about San Diego State's 3-point defense, but they haven't faced a team that can shoot it like FAU and is as versatile.  I think the Aztecs have been very lucky to catch teams on 'off' shooting nights to this point with three wins by 7 points or fewer.  Creighton shot 2-of-17 (11.8%) from 3, Alabama shot 3-of-27 (11.1%), Furman shot 6-of-26 (23.1%) and Charleston shot 5-of-24 (20.8%).  So the four teams they have faced have shot a combined 16-of-94 (17%) from 3 in this tournament.  That's good defense, but it's also a lot of luck.  I think their luck runs out against FAU.

Guard play wins in the tournament, and the Aztecs don't have the best guards.  Matt Bradley has been lost the last couple games and shoots only 40.1% from the field on the season, Darrion Trammell has a lot of heart but is undersized and shoots just 36.1% and Lamont Butler shoots 41.8%.  San Diego State is brutal on offense and goes on long scoring droughts, and one of those is going to be costly against FAU.  San Diego State ranks 223rd in the country in effective field goal percentage on offense.

Florida Atlantic is 11-2 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Owls are 10-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season.  The other three Mountain West teams all lost their first NCAA Tournament games and the MWC is now 4-13 SU & 4-13 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.  All four wins belong to SDSU this tournament.  I'll gladly side with C-USA over MWC in this game as FAU is the better team in my opinion with fewer weaknesses and should not be the underdog.  Bet Florida Atlantic Saturday.

20* Utah Valley/UAB NIT No-Brainer on Utah Valley +2

I've been riding Conference USA in the NIT and the NCAA Tournament, but I think it's time to fade the conference here and go against UAB.  Not because I don't think the Blazers are good, I just think Utah Valley is better and the wrong team is favored here.

Utah Valley is 28-8 this season and should have won their conference tournament but lost by a single point to Southern Utah.  They have taken out their frustration in the NIT thus far, winning at two of the toughest places to play in the country.

Utah Valley went into New Mexico and won 83-69 as 5.5-point dogs.  They followed it up with an 81-69 win at Colorado as 4.5-point dogs.  They finally got to play a home game and took advantage, topping Cincinnati 74-68 as 1.5-point favorites.  That was previously the biggest game in program history, and now this will be the biggest game in program history in the semifinals.

One hidden factor here is that this will essentially feel like a home game for Utah Valley State being played in Las Vegas.  Fans will be making the 5-hour trek to Las Vegas to support their team.  Nobody from UAB is driving the 26 hours to Vegas.  They may fly, but I can't see them having nearly the support that the Wolverines do.

The Wolverines are 22-5 ATS in their last 27 games overall.  The Blazers are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games following an ATS win.  UAB had the much easier path to get here beating Southern Miss and Morehead State at home as well as a short-handed Vanderbilt team on the road.  Utah Valley had three better wins than them and are more battle-tested.  Bet Utah Valley Tuesday.

25* NIT GAME OF THE YEAR on North Texas -1

Conference USA was one of the best mid-major conferences in the country this season. C-USA is now 15-1 SU in all tournament games this season. Florida Atlantic, UAB and North Texas were all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams, and FAU is still playing in the Final 4 as of this writing. That easily could have been North Texas instead.

North Texas was dominant in its first two NIT games beating Alcorn State by 16 and Sam Houston State by 20.  The Mean Green then went on the road and upset Oklahoma State by 6 as 4.5-point dogs.  The Mean Green are now 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall.

Wisconsin benefited from a pretty easy path to get here.  They beat Bradley and Liberty (by 4) at home before going on the road and upsetting Oregon 61-58.  But Oregon was without three of its best players, and that line was steamed from Wisconsin +5 down to +1.5 after the news came out.  Yet the Badgers were still life and death with the Ducks.  

This will be Wisconsin's stiffest test yet, and the Big Ten only had one team remaining in the Sweet 16, and Michigan State lost to Kansas State to go to the Elite 8.  Wisconsin is 1-9-2 ATS in its last 12 games following a win.  The Badgers are 0-5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS win.  This is one of the biggest games in program history for the Mean Green, and not only are they the better team, but they simply want it more.  Bet North Texas Tuesday.

20* Miami/Texas Elite 8 No-Brainer on OVER 149

Two elite offensive teams square off tonight in the Elite 8 in Kansas City when the Miami Hurricanes take on the Texas Longhorns.  You would be hard-pressed to find two teams with a better trio of guards in the country than these two.

Miami has put up 85 points on 48.6% shooting on Indiana and 89 points on 51.7% shooting against Houston in its last two games.  That was the most points Houston allowed all season by 12 as their previous high was 77.  Isaiah Wong (16.3 PPG), Jordan Miller (15.1 PPG) and Nijel Pack (13.8 PPG) are arguably the best trio of guards in the country.

Texas has put up 71 or more points in four consecutive games, including 76 against Kansas, 81 against Colgate and 83 against Xavier.  Marcus Carr (15.8 PPG), Sir'Jabari Rice (12.9 PPG) and Tyrese Hunter (10.4 PPG) can match Miami score for score.  And they may not have big man Dylan Disu, which would hurt them defensively because he is their best rim protector.  Miami is a terrible defensive team and relies on outscoring opponents to win.

Texas is 18-3 OVER in its last 21 games against ACC opponents.  The OVER is 14-6 in Longhorns last 20 NCAA Tournament games.  Bet the OVER in this game Sunday.

25* NCAA Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on UConn ML -130

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.1 PPG), Newton (9.9 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.3 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.5 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses.  That's why KenPom has them as the 3rd-best team in the country, and I agree with it.  He only has Houston and Alabama ahead of them.  UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offense and 13th in adjusted defense.

The Huskies have been the most impressive team in the tournament to this point.  They beat Iona by 24, St. Mary's by 15 and Arkansas by 23. That means they will still be very fresh for this game against Gonzaga because they didn't have to work too hard in the 2nd half against Arkansas Thursday night.  

Gonzaga just survived against both TCU and UCLA to get here.  They beat TCU by 3 and UCLA by 3.  They also played the late game Thursday night, so they have even less rest than UConn heading into this one.  I like backing the team that played the early game because they get the chance to watch their opponent after winning and get a head start on the scouting.

Gonzaga also benefited from TCU being without its best big man, and UCLA being without two starters in G Clark and F Bona.  Drew Timme had huge games against both of those teams to lead the way, but things aren't going to come so easy against UConn.  The Huskies rank 10th in effective field goal percentage defense, 14th in 2-point percentage and 25th in block percentage.  They have three stud big men who can contain Timme.

UConn also ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebound percentage, getting 38.9% of their own misses.  Gonzaga is an elite offensive team but a terrible defensive team.  The Bulldogs are 73rd in adjusted defense and 235th in effective field goal percentage allowed.  The Huskies are going to own them on the boards and limit Timme, which is going to be key to them getting this win.  I'll gladly side with the better defensive team in this matchup.

UConn is 13-1 ATS in none-conference games this season.  Gonzaga is 1-7 ATS in road games when playing its 2nd game in 3 days this season.  UConn is 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS in its last 14 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 12 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette.  The Huskies continue rolling right into the Final 4 with a win here.  Bet UConn on the Money Line Saturday.

20* FAU/Tennessee Sweet 16 No-Brainer on Florida Atlantic +5.5

Everyone was on Duke last week including myself.  But I didn't plan for big man Mark Mitchell getting injured in practice the day before the game and sitting out.  They missed his big body against Tennessee, a physical team that relies on defense to win games.

Now the Volunteers are starting to get respect from oddsmakers this week after beating Duke.  But this team is a fraud and it will rear its ugly head here in the Sweet 16 against Florida Atlantic.  The Volunteers are still just 7-7 SU & 5-9 ATS in their last 14 games overall and without their starting PG in Zakai Zeigler.  They are one of the worst offensive teams left in this tournament, which makes it tough for them to get margin.  That showed up in a 58-55 win over Louisiana in the opener.

Florida Atlantic is 33-3 this season and came out of one of the best mid-major conferences in the country.  Both North Texas and UAB were NCAA Tournament-worthy, and the Owls outlasted both.  North Texas and UAB are both making runs in the NIT as of this writing to show how good this conference really is.  So I think FAU has played a tougher schedule than it gets credit for.

The win over Memphis was a really good one as the Tigers were playing as well as almost anyone in the country.  They had beaten Houston in the AAC ChampionshIp Game, and I expected them to make a deep run in the tournament.  I was pissed they got matched up with FAU because I figured the winner of that game had a great chance to make a deep run and beat Purdue.  Well, Fairleigh Dickinson did that for them both in the opening round.

FAU instead of playing the cinderella actually played the role of hated favorite against FDU as the entire country was rooting against them.  That was a tough spot for them to be in, and they handled it well pulling away late to beat FDU 78-70.  Now they can get back to being that cinderella role and playing with a chip on their shoulder getting a chance to face a Power 6 team.

KenPom has Tennessee ranked 6th right now with Florida Atlantic 22nd.  Tennessee being power-rated too highly has them overvalued.  The Vols have scored 71 or fewer points in 11 of their last 14 games overall.  They should be ranked much worse than 60th in adjusted offense.  They will struggle to get anything easy against a FAU defense that ranks 35th in adjusted defense and 15th in effective field goal percentage.

Rick Barnes is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 NCAA Tournament games.  Florida Atlantic is 9-2 ATS in non-conference games this season.  The Owls are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.  Florida Atlantic is 8-0 ATS following two consecutive non-conference games this season.  Bet Florida Atlantic Thursday.

25* Sweet 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on UConn -3.5

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (15.9 PPG), Newton (10.1 PPG, 4.7 APG, 4.2 RPG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.4 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.3 PPG, 7.5 RPG), Karaban (9.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Clingan (7.1 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses.  That's why KenPom has them as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree with it.  He only has Houston, Alabama and UCLA ranked ahead of them, and I would have them ahead of the Bruins given their current injury situation.  UConn ranks 3rd in adjusted offense and 14th in adjusted defense.

Arkansas is getting a lot of respect after upsetting Kansas.  But Kansas was a fraud No. 1 seed along with Purdue.  KenPom had Kansas ranked five spots below UConn and they probably should have been worse with the way they played to finish the season.  Arkansas is ranked 18th according to KenPom while St. Mary's was 12th, yet UConn is a shorter favorite against Arkansas than they were against KenPom.  That's value.

The matchup is a good one for the Huskies.  Arkansas consistently tries to get to the room and get fouled or get layups because they are a terrible shooting team.  They rank 317th in the country in 3-point percentage at 31.3%.  UConn is 19th in the country in 2-point defense at 45.4%.  They are 24th in block percentage and have the big men inside that won't allow Arkansas to get easy buckets at the rim like Kansas and Illinois did.  

Even then, Arkansas shot just 38.1% against Illinois and 41.4% against Kansas and now faces a better defensive team here in UConn.  Arkansas ranks 138th in allowing offensive rebounds defensively, while UConn ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding.  Winning the battle on the glass will also be a key factor in the Huskies running away with this game.

UConn is 11-2 SU & 10-3 ATS in its last 13 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 11 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette.  That includes blowout wins by 24 over Iona and by 15 over St. Mary's to start the NCAA Tournament.  UConn is 12-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  Bet UConn Thursday.

20* Utah Valley/Cincinnati NIT No-Brainer on Utah Valley PK

Utah Valley is 27-8 this season and should have won their conference tournament but lost by a single point to Southern Utah.  They have taken out their frustration in the NIT thus far, winning at two of the toughest places to play in the country.

Utah Valley went into New Mexico and won 83-69 as 5.5-point dogs.  They followed it up with an 81-69 win at Colorado as 4.5-point dogs.  Now they get to host Cincinnati in the Quarterfinals, and this is the biggest game in program history.  It will be a tremendous atmosphere, and these kids would love nothing more than to play in Las Vegas for the NIT Semis.

Cincinnati has also been impressive in beating Virginia Tech and Hofstra thus far.  I don't want to take anything away from them, but I just think it means more for Utah Valley.  We also saw Utah Valley beat both BYU and Oregon on the road in the non-conference as they really tested themselves.

I think a hidden factor here is that Cincinnati is listed as the bottom team in the rotation order, so many think Cincinnati is the home team here.  I think we're getting value because of that flaw with Utah Valley actually being the home team instead.  The Wolverines are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games overall.  The Wolverines are 9-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season.  Bet Utah Valley Wednesday.

20* NIT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas +4.5

Conference USA was one of the best mid-major conferences in the country this season.  Florida Atlantic, UAB and North Texas were all NCAA Tournament-worthy teams, and FAU is still playing in the Sweet 16.  That easily could have been North Texas instead.

North Texas has been dominant in its first two NIT games beating Alcorn State by 16 and Sam Houston State by 20.  Oklahoma State has been much more lackluster, beating Youngstown State by 5 and Eastern Washington by 11.  I think the Cowboys get caught here and lose this game outright to the Mean Green, but we'll take the points for some insurance.

The Cowboys are 4-6 SU & 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games overall and have been consistently overvalued.  The Mean Green are 13-2 SU & 11-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.  North Texas is 23-9-3 ATS in its last 35 road games.  Bet North Texas Tuesday.

20* St. Mary's/UConn TNT No-Brainer on UConn -3

The UConn Huskies are as good as anyone in the country at their best.  They are loaded at guard  with Hawkins (16.0 PPG), Newton (10.0 PPG, 4.6 APG) and Jackson (6.8 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 4.4 APG) and especially in the post with the trio of Sanogo (17.1 PPG, 7.4 RPG), Karaban (9.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG) and Clingan (7.2 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG).

The Huskies have virtually no weaknesses.  That's why KenPom has them as the 4th-best team in the country, and I agree with it.  He only has Houston, Alabama and UCLA ranked ahead of them, and I would have them ahead of the Bruins given their current injury situation.

What I don't agree with is KenPom having St. Mary's ranked 12th, which is why the Gaels get so much respect from the books.  But they lack the athleticism of UConn and will struggle to defend them and to score against their length.  The Huskies rank 28th in average height.  They are the best offensive rebounding team in the country and their ability to win the battle on the glass will be a key factor here.

UConn is 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games overall and playing its best basketball of the season with all 10 wins coming by 6 points or more, and the two losses coming by a combined 5 points in road/neutral environments to Creighton and Marquette.  UConn is 11-1 ATS in non-conference games this season.  St. Mary's is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 road games vs. good passing teams that average 16 or more assists per game.  The Gaels are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.  

This is essentially a home game for UConn being played in Albany, NY.  St. Mary's had the furthest travel of any team in the NCAA Tournament from the West Coast to the East Coast.  That's another hidden factor in favor of the Huskies here, and I don't think it's being priced into this number enough as they are clearly the better team as well.  Bet UConn Sunday.

20* Kentucky/Kansas State CBS No-Brainer on Kentucky ML -125

As is the case with most John Calipari teams, the Kentucky Wildcats are playing their best basketball of the season down the stretch.  But it's usually due to so many freshmen playing and getting better.  This is a rare veteran Kentucky team that is playing like a Final 4 contender.

Kentucky has gone 6-2 SU & 6-2 ATS in its last eight games overall with both losses coming to Vanderbilt, a team that matches up well with them and is as hot as almost anyone down the stretch.  I also think Kentucky took them lightly.  They have road/neutral wins over Arkansas by 9, Providence by 8, Florida by 8 and Mississippi State by 3, as well as home wins over Tennessee by 12 and Auburn by 32.

This will feel like a home game for Kentucky in Greensboro, NC as their fans travel well everywhere, and it's only about a 6 hour drive.  It's 16 hours from Manhattan, KS to Greensboro for Kansas State fans.  

A key factor here is that Kentucky ranks 2nd in the country in offensive rebounding, and Kansas State is a terrible rebounding team ranking 219th in allowing offensive rebounds.  They are also a short team ranking 312th in average height, so Kentucky's ability to dominate the glass will be a key factor in them winning this game.  Bet Kentucky on the Money Line Sunday.

20* Maryland/Alabama TBS Late-Night BAILOUT on Alabama -8

The Alabama Crimson Tide are the best team in the country, period.  They are still very fresh right now as they have won four consecutive blowouts en route to winning the SEC Tournament and advancing to the Round of 32.  They beat Mississippi State by 23, Missouri by 11, Texas A&M by 19 and Texas A&M CC by 21.

The fact that they're still fresh is why I'm willing to lay the 8 points here with them against Maryland.  The Terrapins needed a double-digit comeback to beat West Virginia 67-65.  That was more WVU bad than Maryland good, and I think the Terrapins are getting too much respect for that win.  Alabama should be favored by double-digits here.

That was a rare win for the Terrapins away from home. They went 2-9 SU in true road games this season with their two wins coming against two of the worst Power 5 teams in college basketball in Minnesota and Louisville. This will essentially be a home game for the Crimson Tide being played in Birmingham.

Alabama is 7-0 ATS vs. teams that commit 12 or fewer turnovers per game this season.  The Crimson Tide have a big coaching advantage with Nate Oats over Kevin Willard today as well.  I trust Oats to get his team ready for this game in only two days over Willard.  Bet Alabama Saturday.

25* Round of 32 GAME OF THE YEAR on Duke -2

I've been fading Tennessee all season with a ton of success.  But I think this is my favorite spot of the season to fade Tennessee despite all that success.  Duke is rolling right now, and Tennessee is reeling.  So getting Duke as only a 2-point favorite given all the factors in their favor is a nice value.

Tennessee has been overvalued due to ranking as one of the best defensive teams in the country.  However, they are a terrible offensive team, especially now without starting PG Zakai Zeigler.  They went on a big scoring drought Thursday and let Louisiana back in it, eventually winning 58-55 as 11.5-point favorites.  And that was a good matchup for them.  The Volunteers are now 6-7 SU & 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall.

Duke is playing as well as anyone in the country right now.  The Blue Devils have won 10 consecutive games while also going 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall, winning by 5 as 4-point dogs at UNC, beating Pitt by 27 as 5.5-point favorites, beating Miami by 7 as 2.5-point favorites, beating Virginia by 10 as 3-point favorites and crushing Oral Roberts by 23 as 5.5-point favorites.

Duke played the early game Thursday and made easy work of Oral Roberts, so they'll be fresh for this one.  Short-handed Tennessee had to go to the wire with Louisiana in the late game Thursday, so they'll be far from fresh.  I love taking the fresher team that played the early game in the Round of 32.  They got to scout Tennessee in the late game while watching from the stands which is a hidden advantage.

Rick Barnes is 2-14 ATS his his last 16 NCAA Tournament games.  The Volunteers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight NCAA Tournament games.  Barnes continues coming up short in these situations time and time again, and he has his hands full with this short-handed Vols team this year going up against a juggernaut in the Blue Devils.  Bet Duke Saturday.

20* Furman/San Diego State CBS No-Brainer on Furman +6

The Furman Paladins have that confident feeling after stealing victory from the jaws of defeat against Virginia.  They were down 4 with seconds remaining, hit two free throws and got a steal and a game-winning 3-pointer.  They won despite their best player Mike Bothwell (17.8 PPG) fouling out and playing only 20 minutes while being in foul trouble the entire game.  I love the confidence they'll be playing with going into this game against a very similar San Diego State team, and having Bothwell for 40 minutes will make them even better.

I also love fading Mountain West teams, and I faded all four already in the NCAA Tournament and went 3-1 ATS.  It would have been 4-0 ATS if not for a bullshit foul call on Charleston +5.5 with 0.7 seconds left that allowed San Diego State to make both free throws and win by 6.  I'm not bitter or anything.

Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament.  The Mountain West is now 1-13 SU & 1-13 ATS in their last 14 NCAA Tournament games with the lone cover being that San Diego State miracle on Thursday.  It's crazy how lucky this SDSU team has been in close games this season as they simply aren't very good.  The Aztecs now have a whopping 10 wins by 6 points or less this season, and I think this game will go down to the wire as well, so getting 6 points is a nice value.

One hidden factor here that goes against the Aztecs is that this is a 12:10 EST start time, which makes it a 9:10 AM body clock game for San Diego State.  They aren't used to playing this early in the day, and I think it will be a shock to the system for them.  I think the Aztecs will start slow and struggle to recover to beat Furman, let alone beat them by 6-plus points.  Bet Furman Saturday.

25* Round of 64 GAME OF THE YEAR on Drake +2.5

The Drake Bulldogs are a veteran team that can make a deep run in the NCAA Tournament.  They won a deep Missouri Valley conference this season with a blowout 77-51 win over Bradley on May 5th.  They've had nearly two weeks to rest up and sharpen their system and are a very dangerous out for anyone in the NCAA Tournament.

Sophomore Tucker DeVries (19.0 PPG, 5.6 RPG) is the coach's son and does it all for this team.  He is surrounded by four senior starters including PG Roman Penn (12.6 PPG, 5.4 APG), who played for Siena in 2017 and has been around forever.  These guys have been through a ton of wars together and have as good of chemistry as any team in the NCAA Tournament.

The ACC was way down this season, and I think Miami is overrated.  The Hurricanes are a great offensive team but a terrible defensive team, ranking 131st in the country in adjusted defense.  Forward Norchad Omier (13.6 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 1.3 BPG) suffered a bad ankle injury in the loss to Duke in the ACC Tournament and left the game early.  He is unlikely to play, and even if he does he won't be near 100%. That's a big blow to the Hurricanes, especially defensively where they were already lacking.

Drake is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games overall and playing as well as anyone in the country.  The Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall.  The Hurricanes are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall which includes a pair of 2-point wins over Pitt and Wake Forest and an upset home loss to Florida State as 13-point favorites.  Bet Drake Friday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on Baylor -10.5

It's a great time to 'buy low' on the Baylor Bears after going 2-4 SU & 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.  They lost three times to Iowa State this season, including two during this stretch as the Cyclones were a bad matchup for them.  They also had road losses at Kansas and at Kansas State during this stretch.

A big reason for their struggles was the injury to leading scorer Keyonte George (15.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.1 SPG).  But George returned for the Big 12 Tournament, and the early exit to Iowa State could actually be a good thing because it gives his ankle even more time to rest.  Baylor has arguably the best trio of guards in the country in George, Flagler (15.5 PPG, 4.7 APG) and Cryer (14.5 PPG), and guards win in the NCAA Tournament.

UC-Santa Barbara won the Big West, which is one of the worst conferences in the country.  They played a very easy non-conference schedule and even lost to Northern Arizona by 9 as 9-point favorites and Duquesne by 11 as 3.5-point dogs.  This will be by far their toughest test of the season to date.

We'll 'sell high' on the Guachos, who are 7-0 SU & 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall against Big West competition.  Scott Drew is one of the best head coaches in the country, and the Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last seven NCAA Tournament games.  The Bears bounce back in blowout fashion in the opening round.  Bet Baylor Friday.

20* Boise State/Northwestern TruTV No-Brainer on Northwestern ML -120

Mountain West teams are 1-12 straight up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2016.  They are also 0-10 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.  Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament.  The committee has somehow put four Mountain West teams into the NCAA Tournament this year.

Boise State is not very athletic at all and won't give Northwestern problems as they sometimes struggle with the more athletic teams.  This is a game the Wildcats can handle, and I expect them to do just that and make easy work of yet another Mountain West opponent.

Northwestern went 9-2 in the non-conference with their two losses coming to Auburn (by 1) and Pittsburgh, which are two NCAA Tournament teams.  Boise State lost to South Dakota State, Charlotte and Santa Clara in the non-conference, which is a really bad look as none of those teams made the NCAA Tournament.

Northwestern is 9-1 ATS after failing to cover two of its last three games this season.  Plays on any team (Northwestern) - a Power 5 team playing a mid-major team, off an upset conference loss as a favorite are 75-34 (68.8%) ATS since 1997.  The Broncos are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  Bet Northwestern Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday Undervalued Underdog on College of Charleston +5.5

Mountain West teams are 1-12 straight up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2016.  They are also 0-10 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.  Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament.  The committee has somehow put four Mountain West teams into the NCAA Tournament this year.

Admittedly, San Diego State is the best of the four Mountain West teams this season.  But they are also the biggest favorites of the four, and I think there is value in fading the Aztecs here.  They went 27-6 this season and dominated MWC competition, but didn't fare so well when they stepped up in competition outside the conference.

They lost by 17 to Arizona on a neutral, by 4 to Arkansas on a neutral and by 7 to St. Mary's on a neutral.  They also only beat BYU by 7 as 11-point home favorites.  The Aztecs rank 73rd in the country in the luck factor and won a ton of close games this season.  They had nine wins by 6 points or less this season.

College of Charleston went 31-3 this season with only one loss by more than 4 points all season, which came at UNC in their second game of the season. That makes for a 33-1 system backing the Cougars pertaining to this 5.5-point spread.  They beat the likes of Richmond, Davidson, Colorado State, Virginia Tech and Kent State in the non-conference to prove themselves.  They are an elite offensive team averaging 80.8 points per game and are better than they get credit for defensively, ranking 71st in adjusted defense while yielding 67.4 points per game.

San Diego State is 1-7 ATS following four or more consecutive wins this season.  Charleston is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 games following an ATS loss.  This is a tough travel spot for the Aztecs having to travel to Florida to play an early start time.  The Cougars will will have the home-court advantage.  Bet College of Charleston Thursday.

20* CBB Thursday UPSET SHOCKER on Missouri ML +100

Mountain West teams are 1-12 straight up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2016.  They are also 0-10 ATS in their last 10 NCAA Tournament games.  Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament.  The committee has somehow put four Mountain West teams into the NCAA Tournament this year.

Utah State should not be favored over Missouri.  The Tigers have been one of the most underrated teams in the country all season as head coach Dennis Gates is doing a tremendous job in his first season.  The Tigers are 24-9 and have won five of their last six coming in with their lone loss coming to Alabama in the SEC Tournament.  They gave Alabama a fight for 40 minutes, too.

Missouri has the better athletes, which Utah State struggles with.  That showed up when they lost all three meetings with San Diego State this season.  They beat the less athletic teams in the MWC like Boise State.  Missouri is an elite offensive team with one of the best players in the country in Kobe Brown.  They rank 10th in adjusted offense and will score at will on this slow (foot speed) Utah State defense.

Utah State is 0-8 SU in its last eight NCAA Tournament games and hasn't won a game in the Big Dance since 2001.  The Aggies are 1-18 SU in their last 19 NCAA Tournament games as well.  This is a 11:40 AM body clock game for Utah State, something they are not used.  Bet Missouri on the Money Line Thursday.

20* Arizona State/Nevada First Four No-Brainer on Arizona State -2

Mountain West teams are 1-11 straight up in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2016.  They are also 0-9 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games.  Death, taxes and fading the Mountain West in the NCAA Tournament.  The committee has somehow put four Mountain West teams into the NCAA Tournament this year.

The most shocking of the four was Nevada, which had no business making the big dance after closing the season going 0-3 SU & 0-3 ATS in their final three games.  They got upset by 9 as 5-point favorites at Wyoming, upset by 2 as 8-point home favorites to UNLV and upset by 4 as 4-point favorites in the MWC Tournament opener to San Jose State.  That loss certainly should have knocked them out of the big dance and allowed one of Rutgers, Clemson or Oklahoma State to get in.

But we'll take advantage on the Wolf Pack's good fortune here and fade them in the First Four.  They take on Arizona State from the Pac-12, a team that came up with two huge victories in the Pac-12 Tournament to punch their ticket.  They also upset Arizona on the road late in the season to get in and are playing much better than Nevada right now.

Arizona State was impressive in the non-conference picking up wins over VCU, Michigan, and Creighton.  Nevada lost to Kansas State by 9, Loyola-Marymount by 12 and Oregon by 13 in the non-conference.  So they lost to a worse Pac-12 team than ASU in Oregon in blowout fashion.  ASU beat Oregon by 17 on the road and lost by 5 to them at home to compare.

Arizona State is 6-0 ATS in road games following a loss by 15 points or more over the last three seasons.  Bet Arizona State Monday.

20* Memphis/Houston AAC No-Brainer on Memphis +6

The Memphis Tigers are the one team that have pushed the Houston Cougars to the brink in the American Athletic Conference.  The Tigers are 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings with only one loss by double-digits during this stretch.  

They lost by 8 at Houston and by 2 at home to the Cougars in their two meetings this season, including a buzzer-beater at home on March 5th just a week ago today.  They want revenge from that loss, and I think there's a ton of value getting them at +6 here in the 3rd and final meeting in a game that will likely be decided in the final seconds again.

Memphis is fresh and ready to go after a 94-54 blowout victory over Tulane yesterday.  They avenged two regular season losses to the Green Wave and are in the same situation here again today.  Houston may be without leading scorer Marcus Sasser (17.0 PPG, 61.1% FG's), who suffered a groin injury in the first half against Cincinnati yesterday and likely will rest for the NCAA Tournament.  Bet Memphis Sunday.

20* Texas/Kansas Big 12 No-Brainer on Kansas -2

The Kansas Jayhawks won the Big 12 regular season title and now look to capture the sweep by winning the conference tournament.  They are a better team than Texas and should be more than 2-point favorites considering this is essentially a home game for them being played in Kansas City.

Kansas also wants revenge from a 59-75 loss at Texas in the regular season finale.  I was on Texas in that game because I knew the Jayhawks were in a letdown spot after clinching the Big 12 title the game prior.  They indeed let down and weren't competitive.  They will be fully locked in for this one with another title on the line, and their best effort is better that of Texas.

Kansas is 6-0 ATS in its last six conference tournament games.  Texas is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games following two consecutive conference wins.  The Jayhawks are 9-1 ATS after winning three of their last four games this season.  Bet Kansas Saturday.

20* Penn State/Indiana Big Ten No-Brainer on Indiana -3

Penn State's miraculous run of four consecutive victories by 3 points or less comes to an end today.  It's just too tall of a task for them to keep this up today playing their 4th game in 4 days and coming off an OT game against Northwestern yesterday to boot.  They run out of gas and get blown out of the building by the Indiana Hoosiers today.

This is a step up in class for Penn State as the Hoosiers have gone 12-4 SU in their last 16 games overall including a pair of wins over Purdue.  Indiana wants revenge from a 66-85 loss at Penn State prior to this 12-4 run.  The Nittany Lions shot 18-of-31 (58.1%) from 3-point range in that game, and that's clearly not going to happen again, especially on their tired legs.

Penn State is 0-6 ATS after covering four or five of their last six games coming in.  Indiana is 6-0 ATS in neutral court games with a total of 130 to 139.5 over the last three seasons.  The Hoosiers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. teams that average 33 or fewer rebounds per game.  These three trends combine for a perfect 18-0 system backing the Hoosiers.  Bet Indiana Saturday.

20* Maryland/Indiana Big Ten No-Brainer on Indiana PK

The Indiana Hoosiers have the rest advantage today after receiving a double-bye into the quarterfinals.  They are rested and ready to go against a Maryland team that just played yesterday in a 70-54 win over lowly Minnesota, which was tired from the day prior beating Nebraska and they took advantage.

This will now be a huge step up in class for the Terrapins.  The Hoosiers want revenge from a 55-66 road loss at Maryland in their first meeting this season.  But if you remember that was a terrible spot for Indiana.  They had Purdue on deck and were looking ahead to that game, and they wound up beating the Boilermakers in that game.  They also beat Purdue on the road on February 25th in the rematch to flash their potential.

This will feel like a home game for the Hoosiers with thousands of fans making the short trip to Chicago.  The Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  The favorite is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.  Bet Indiana Friday.

20* UConn/Marquette Big East No-Brainer on UConn -3.5

The UConn Huskies have been one of the best teams in the country when playing at their best.  They showed that with their 14-0 SU & 11-3 ATS start to the season, and they have showed it down the stretch here going 9-1 SU & 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall with their lone loss coming by 3 at Creighton.  All nine wins during this stretch came by 6 points or more.

Marquette is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games overall and has been overvalued due to winning the Big East regular season title.  They just beat St. John's by 2 and 2 points in their last two games coming in and only beat DePaul by 6 at home four games back.  They had to go to OT to beat St. John's yesterday, which will add to their fatigue playing for a 2nd consecutive day.

UConn did lost the first meeting 76-82 at Marquette back when they weren't playing their best on January 11th.  But they got their revenge in blowout fashion over the Golden Eagles, winning 87-72 at home on February 7th.  They had a 48-24 rebounding advantage in that game and have a big advantage on the boards in this matchup.  It should be more of the same in the 3rd and final meeting here in the Big East semis.

UConn is 8-1 ATS following three or more consecutive ATS wins this season.  Marquette is 0-6 ATS in its last six games on the highway following three consecutive games as favorites.  The Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.  UConn is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Golden Eagles are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six neutral site games.  The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings.  Bet UConn Friday.

25* Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR on Missouri +6

Missouri comes in rested and ready to go after receiving a double-bye into the quarterfinals.  The are playing some of their best basketball of the season heading into the SEC Tournament by winning four consecutive games to earn this double-bye.  And now they are catching 6 points in the opener against Tennessee when I think they should be favored.

That's especially the case considering Tennessee will be playing for a 2nd consecutive day after beating Ole Miss yesterday.  That was a rare win recently for the Volunteers, who are 5-6 SU & 4-7 ATS in their last 11 games overall.  They just lost starting PG Zakai Zeigler (10.7 PPG, 5.4 APG) to a season-ending injury to boot and are vulnerable here in the postseason.

Missouri won 86-85 as 12-point road underdogs in their lone meeting this season with the Volunteers.  That spread was way off, and this spread is, too.  The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games.  Missouri is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games after failing to cover four or five of its last six games coming in.  Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games after four straight games committing 14 or fewer turnovers.  Bet Missouri Friday.

20* UNLV/Boise State MWC No-Brainer on Boise State -4

UNLV needed OT to beat Air Force 78-70 yesterday in a game that was tied 57-57 at the end of regulation.  It was a brutal beat for me on Air Force +7, and I'll gladly fade the Rebels in this spot considering they lack depth without second-leading scorer Keshon Gilbert (11.5 PPG).

Meanwhile, Boise State comes in rested after receiving a bye.  The Broncos might still have some work to do to make the NCAA Tournament so they won't be taking UNLV lightly.  They have won both meetings with the Rebels this season, including a blowout 84-66 road win at UNLV.  The Broncos are now 7-0 SU In their last eight meetings with the Rebels winning six of them by 4 points or more.  Bet Boise State Thursday.

20* CBB BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK on North Texas -8

Louisiana Tech (15-17) just lost its bet player in G Cobe Williams (18.8 PPG, 4.1 APG) as he is no longer with the team.  The Bulldogs couldn't afford to lose him. The Bulldogs are 2-5 SU & 2-5 ATS in their seven games without him.  

Louisiana Tech needed OT to beat Florida International 81-76 yesterday.  Willis played all 45 minutes and Crawford played 44 minutes for the Bulldogs, who are short on depth especially without Williams.  They won't have much left in the tank for North Texas today.

North Texas (25-6) is one of the best mid-majors in the country.  The Mean Green are rested and ready to go after getting a bye into this round.  They just won 72-62 at LA Tech on February 18th in their most recent meeting, and I like their chances of winning by double-digits in the rematch here given the rest advantage and the home-court advantage as the C-USA Tournament is being played in Frisco, TX.

The Mean Green are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games overall with seven wins by double-digits.  Bet North Texas Thursday.

20* Ohio State/Iowa Big Ten No-Brainer on Iowa -1.5

It's a good time to 'buy low' on the Iowa Hawkeyes after an upset loss to Nebraska in their regular season finale.  They had won 90-68 at Indiana in the game prior, so it was more of an aberration than anything.  Iowa won the Big Ten Tournament last year and will be locked in and focused to repeat.

The Hawkeyes have the rest advantage here after getting a bye into this round, while Ohio State won a hard-fought 65-57 game against Wisconsin yesterday.  It's a good time to 'sell high' on the Buckeyes, who are 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.  Their brief run comes to an end today.

Iowa beat Ohio State 92-75 at home on February 16th.  Ohio State is 3-10 ATS as an underdog this season.  The Buckeyes are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The favorite is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.  The Hawkeyes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a loss. Bet Iowa Thursday.

20* Iowa State/Baylor Big 12 No-Brainer on UNDER 134.5

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 2nd meeting in 6 days between Baylor and Iowa State.  The Cyclones won 73-58 for just 131 combined points on March 4th.  The Cyclones have shot at least 50% in both meetings with Baylor this season and that's not going to happen again.  But they have proven they can stop Baylor, holding them to 58 and 62 points in the two meetings this season.

Iowa State is 20-10 UNDER in all games this season.  The Cyclones are 13-2 UNDER in their last 15 games when playing against a good team (60% to 80%) after 15-plus games.  The UNDER is 6-1 in Cyclones last seven games overall.  The UNDER is 7-1 in Cyclones last eight neutral site games.  Bet the UNDER in this game Thursday.

20* Wake Forest/Miami ACC No-Brainer on Miami -5

Wake Forest won at the buzzer yesterday over Syracuse.  That game took a lot out of the Demon Deacons as it was played at a fast pace.  They are without second-leading scorer Monsanto (13.3 PPG) and lack depth.

Miami is rested and ready to go after getting a bye into this round.  The Hurricanes are fully healthy and not only a legit ACC title contender, but also a NCAA Tournament contender after making a deep run last year and bringing back mostly the same team.

Miami beat Wake Forest 96-87 at home in their lone meeting this season on February 18th.  Monsanto scored 14 points in that game for Wake Forest and they won't have his production this time around.

Miami is 7-0 ATS off a win where they failed to cover the spread this season.  The Hurricanes are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a win by 3 points or less.  The Demon Deacons are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.  Bet Miami Thursday.

20* Oklahoma/Oklahoma State Big 12 No-Brainer on UNDER 136

Familiarity favors defense and low scoring games.  This will be the 3rd meeting this season between Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, who are both desperate for wins to try and make the NCAA Tournament.  That will lead to all out defense and a low scoring game today.

Let's just compare this 136-point total to the totals in the first two meetings this season.  They had the total set at 127.5 for the first meeting which resulted in 128 combined points.  They had the total set at 131.5 for the 2nd meeting that resulted in 132 combined points.  Now we have a 136-point total for the 3rd and final meeting, which is 8.5 points higher than that first meeting and 4.5 points higher than the 2nd meeting.  There's clearly a ton of value with the UNDER as a result.

Oklahoma ranks 285th in adjusted tempo and 48th in adjusted defense.  Oklahoma State ranks 167th in adjusted tempo and 20th in adjusted defense.  So these are two elite defensive teams that both prefer to play slow, especially Oklahoma.  Bet the UNDER in this game Wednesday.

20* CBB Wednesday UPSET SHOCKER on Florida International +2.5

Louisiana Tech (14-17) just lost its bet player in G Cobe Williams (18.8 PPG, 4.1 APG) as he is no longer with the team.  The Bulldogs couldn't afford to lose him.  He has been off the team for their last six games, a 62-72 home loss to North Texas as 4-point dogs, a 67-74 home loss to Charlotte as 1-point dogs, 66-76 road loss at Western Kentucky as 4.5-point dogs, a 49-63 road loss at Middle Tennessee as 8.5-point dogs, a 1-point home win over FIU as 5-point favorites and a 4-point home loss to FAU as 9-point dogs.

So the Bulldogs are 1-5 SU & 1-5 ATS in their six games without Williams.  That includes their 77-76 (OT) home win over Florida International on March 2nd less than a week ago.  Now the Panthers will be out for revenge and I like their chances of pulling off the upset on a neutral this time around.

Florida International is just 1-5 SU in its last six games overall but four of those losses came by 7 points or fewer and the other was an 11-point loss at Middle Tennessee, which is a very tough place to play.  They closed the season with a 90-83 upset win at Rice as 5.5-point dogs to gain some confidence and momentum heading into this C-USA Tournament.

The Panthers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following a win.  The Bulldogs are 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a loss.  The Panthers are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall.  The underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.  Bet Florida International Wednesday.

20* Colorado/Washington Pac-12 No-Brainer on Washington +4

The Washington Huskies have been one of the most underrated teams in the Pac-12 this season going 11-5 ATS in their last 16 conference games.  They have beaten Colorado twice already this season, winning 73-63 as 1-point home dogs and 75-72 as 9-point road dogs.  Now they are catching 4 points in the 3rd and final meeting, and it will be more of the same here with another upset victory in favor of the Huskies.

The key here is that Colorado just lost leading scorer KJ Simpson (15.9 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 3.8 APG) to Mono right before the Pac-12 Tournament.  They were already without third-leading scorer J'vonne Hadley (8.0 PPG, 5.9 RPG) and couldn't afford to lose Simpson.  Those two combined for 28 points in their first meeting with Washington this season, and 18 points in the second meeting.  Not having to deal with those two guys will make the task even easier on the Huskies tonight.

Washington is 4-0 ATS in its last four neutral site games.  The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their last six games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game.  Washington is 27-7 ATS in its last 34 games following a loss.  Colorado is 1-7 ATS in its last seven road games following an ATS win.  The Huskies are 6-0 ATS following two consecutive conference losses this season.  The Huskies are 8-0 ATS in their last eight road games after failing to cover the spread last game.  Bet Washington Wednesday.

20* Wake Forest/Syracuse ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Syracuse +3

Syracuse just beat Wake Forest 72-63 at home to close out the season.  The Orange were a PK in that game at home, and now are +3 on a neutral.  They should have been favored in that game, and they should be favored in this game as well.  We'll gladly take the value and the +3 with the Orange in the rematch.

Wake Forest has been a dead team for weeks.  The Demon Deacons are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games overall with their only two victories both coming at home over Georgia Tech by 1 as 13-point favorites and Notre Dame by 8 as 8-point favorites.  They lost by 9 at Miami, by 14 at NC State, were upset at home as 8-point favorites by Boston College, and lost by 9 at Syracuse.

Wake Forest's season really went in the dumpster when they lost G Damari Monsanto (13.3 PPG, 40.5% 3-pointers) in that loss to NC State.  They have been without him for each of their last three games and just aren't very good without his shooting prowess.  They are a terrible defensive team allowing 70 or more points in 23 of their last 27 games overall, which is why they can't be trusted laying points.

Syracuse is 19-6 ATS when the line is +3 to -3 over the last three seasons.  The Orange are 35-15 ATS in their last 50 games as neutral court underdogs or PK.  Jim Boeheim thrives in these neutral court tournaments and will have his team ready to go to make one final run at the Big Dance.  Bet Syracuse Wednesday.

20* Georgia Tech/Florida State ACC Early ANNIHILATOR on Georgia Tech PK

The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have gone 6-2 SU in their final eight games of the season and are playing their best basketball heading into the ACC Tournament.  They have gone a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games overall as they have consistently been undervalued with four outright upsets during this stretch.

They are once again being undervalued as a PK against lowly Florida State, which is 9-22 SU & 12-19 ATS this season while consistently being overvalued.  The Seminoles did not finish well going 2-9 SU in their final 11 games with one of those wins coming by 3 against Louisville and the other a miracle 1-point win over Miami after being down 25.

The Seminoles are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games overall.  They lost by 22 at Va Tech, by 11 at home to UNC, by 6 at home to BC, by 40 at Clemson, by 8 at home to Pitt, by 9 at home to Syracuse and by 28 at NC State.  They have rarely even been competitive here down the stretch and are getting way too much respect from oddsmakers in the ACC Tournament opener.  Bet Georgia Tech Tuesday.

20* CBB Monday UPSET SHOCKER on Wisconsin-Milwaukee +2.5

Wrong team favored here.  Wisconsin-Milwaukee won both regular season meetings with Cleveland State 68-64 as 5.5-point road dogs and 81-72 as 1.5-point home dogs.  And here they are in the underdog role against the Vikings again in the conference tournament when they are clearly the better team.

Milwaukee upset Wright State 87-70 as 1.5-point dogs in their Horizon League Tournament opener in one of the most impressive performances of the season in this conference.  Cleveland State struggled to beat Robert Morris 75-70 as 6.5-point home favorites in their tournament opener.

Cleveland State is 0-9 ATS after winning six or seven of its last eight games this season.  Bet Wisconsin-Milwaukee Monday.

20* South Alabama/James Madison Sun Belt No-Brainer on James Madison PK

James Madison lost 62-63 as 3-point road favorites at South Alabama in their lone meeting this season.  Now the Dukes want revenge, and we are getting them at a better price here at PK in the rematch despite this being on a neutral and not a true road game.

The value is there, plus the Dukes have the rest advantage.   They will be playing just their 2nd game in 9 days here while South Alabama will be playing its 3rd game in 4 days after beating App State and Southern Miss in their first two games of this Sun Belt Tournament.  

I don't think the Jaguars will have much left in the tank for the Dukes, who will test their tired legs ranking 31st in adjusted tempo and 9th in average possession length on offense in the entire country.  The Dukes average 81.0 points per game this season.  They are also 69th in adjusted defense.

Plays on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 (James Madison) - in conference tournament games, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are 39-13 (75%) ATS over the last five seasons.  The Dukes are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning record.  Bet James Madison Sunday.

20* Houston/Memphis CBS No-Brainer on Memphis +5

The Memphis Tigers are 11-2 in their last 13 games overall with their two losses coming by 1 to Tulane and by 8 on the road at Houston.  Now they get their shot at revenge on the Cougars, who don't have much to play for here in what feels like a letdown spot for them.

Nobody has played Houston as tough as Memphis in recent meetings.  The Tigers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings with the Cougars with three outright upsets and five losses by 8 points or fewer.  Memphis is 13-1 SU at home this season with its lone loss coming by a single point.

Home-court advantage has been huge in this series as the home team is 7-1 SU in the last eight meetings with the lone exception being an upset road win by Memphis.  The home team has only lost by more than 3 points once in the last 11 meetings, making for a 10-1 system backing the Tigers pertaining to this 5-point spread.  Bet Memphis Sunday.

25* College Basketball GAME OF THE YEAR on Villanova +3

Villanova has been competitive in each of its last 10 games since Justin Moore returned to the lineup.  Moore is getting better with each passing game and just had 25 points in an upset road win over Xavier three games back.  It was a team effort in an 79-67 upset win over Creighton last Saturday that moved the Wildcats closer to making the NCAA Tournament.

The Wildcats came up clutch again on Tuesday winning 76-72 at Seton Hall.  Moore iced that game by making every free throw down the stretch and finished with 23 points.  This team is gaining confidence with each passing game and now has an opportunity to put a stamp on its season on Senior Night with an upset win over Connecticut that would likely get them in the NCAA Tournament.

UConn comes in overvalued off a blowout home win over a dead DePaul team that has lost 11 consecutive games now.  That win clinched a Top 5 seed in the Big East Tournament for the Huskies, and each of the Top 5 seeds get a bye.  So I think there will be a bit of a letdown factor here for the Huskies with not much to play for, while the Wildcats have everything to play for.

Villanova is 10-2 at home this season with four consecutive home victories coming in.  UConn is just an average road team, going 5-5 SU in true road games.  The Wildcats are 1st in the country in defending catch and shoot 3's which UConn is a Top 25 team in.  UConn is a dominant offensive rebounding team, but Villanova also ranks very highly in defending offensive rebounds.  The matchup is a good one for the more motivated home underdog here tonight.  Bet Villanova Saturday.

20* Duke/UNC ESPN No-Brainer on North Carolina -2.5

The North Carolina Tar Heels caught fire as an 8-seed and made it to the championship game of the NCAA Tournament last year.  They have pretty much the same team back and after going through the motions most of the season, they are playing their best basketball of the season here down the stretch.  They are squarely on the bubble so will be max motivated.

The Tar Heels have won three consecutive games beating Notre Dame on the road, Virginia at home and FSU on the road.  Now they have their sights set on revenge from a 57-63 road loss at Duke in their first meeting this season.  They shot just 36.4% as a team in that game and just couldn't get a 3 to fall late.  But they are heating up from 3 and will be coming into this game with a ton of shooting confidence.

Duke is 3-6 SU & 2-7 ATS in true road games this season.  The Blue Devils are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games as road underdogs or PK.  UNC is 12-2 SU at home this season.  Duke is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.  The Blue Devils are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 games overall.  Bet North Carolina Saturday.

20* CBB TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State/Texas Tech UNDER 140

This game between Texas Tech and Oklahoma State will be played with extra intensity like it's a NCAA Tournament game.  That's because both teams are squarely on the bubble to make the big dance, and both teams need a win like blood.  Look for that intensity to show up on the defensive end.

Texas Tech ranks 50th in the country in adjusted defense while Oklahoma State ranks 16th, so these are two of the better defensive teams in the country.  The Cowboys have failed to top 68 points in three consecutive games coming in and are struggling on offense.  The Red Raiders are one of the worst offensive teams in the Big 12 as well.

Texas Tech and Oklahoma State have combined for 139 or fewer points at the end of regulation in each of their last five meetings, so this total of 140 is too high given the recent head-to-head history and the situation.  Bet the UNDER in this game Saturday.

20* Tennessee/Auburn ESPN No-Brainer on Auburn +2.5

After losing six of their last eight games overall, the Auburn Tigers are squarely on the bubble of the NCAA Tournament.  Five of those six losses came on the road.  They need this signature win over Tennessee like blood and I trust them to get it at home today.

Now the Tigers are back home where they are 13-2 SU this season with their only losses coming to Alabama and Texas A&M.  They will be out for revenge from a 43-46 road loss at Tennessee in their first meeting this season.  The Volunteers are 0-4 SU & 0-4 ATS in their last four road games losing by 13 at Florida, by 1 at Vanderbilt, by 12 at Kentucky and by 5 at Texas A&M despite being favored in three of those four games.

The Volunteers were already banged up, but now they just lost starting PG Zakai Zeigler (10.7 PPG, 5.4 APG) to a season-ending torn ACL last time out.  That's terrible news for a Tennessee team that was already struggling on offense all season, especially down the stretch.  Not having their floor general out there is going to make them even more stagnant on offense.

Tennessee is 0-6 ATS in its last six road games following two consecutive covers as a favorite.  Auburn is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 games when revenging a loss.  The Tigers are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games following a loss.  Bet Auburn Saturday.

20* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH on Kent State -4

I love the spot for the Kent State Golden Flashes tonight.  They want revenge from a 55-67 road loss at Akron in their first meeting this season.  They were 1.5-point road favorites in that meeting, and now are only 4-point home favorites in the rematch.

That 2.5-point adjustment for switching home courts isn't enough, especially when you consider Kent State is 14-0 at home and outscoring opponents by 19.2 points per game.  Now they go for a perfect home record on Senior Night and will be max motivated.

Kent State is 8-0 ATS in its last eight home games following two consecutive conference wins.  The Golden Flashes are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as home favorites of 6 points or less or PK.  Akron is 1-7 ATS in road games vs. good teams that outscore their opponents by 4-plus points per game this season.  The Zips are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning % above .400.  The Golden Flashes are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 home games.  Bet Kent State Friday.