I used to live by the adage “Never bet against Mahomes in the Playoffs” and that has usually been good for me. I went against that the last two games and paid for it dearly. Mahomes has made a season of starts in the postseason. In 17 starts he has posted a 14-3 record. He has completed  67.4% of his passes with 4,802 passing yards, 39 touchdowns and just seven interceptions. That's a 106.3 quarterback rating. Throw in his record as an underdog, 11-1-1 against the spread (ATS), regular season, and postseason as an underdog. – He is 10-3 straight up (SU) as an underdog (regular season + postseason). But it goes beyond Mahomes, Kelce looks to be focused on football as he had 11 catches against the Ravens. They have a nice running game with Pacheco but more importantly, they have the best defense since Mahomes has been in KC. San Fran has a ton of talent on both sides of the ball but to be honest, they should have lost both playoff games. The Lions' offense, at least in the first half, had their way and I think  Reid and Mahomes should be able to come up with plays to move the ball down the field. You can say what you want about Purdy doing enough to win those games, but you can only do that for so long. I would rather put my money on Mahomes than on Purdy and hope for the best. Also, I will take Reid over Shannahan.

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The Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers battle it out for the NFC Championship and a trip to the Super Bowl. Detroit is 14-5 this season and an NFL-best 13-6 against the number. San Fran finished the season at 13-5 but just 9-9 against the number. Detroit needs Goff and the offense to play well right from the start. They have done that down the stretch. The defense has to play better as they have given up a lot of yards but in their defense, they have tightened up in the red zone and held teams to field goals. Detroit has a balanced offensive attack as they can run the ball with Gibbs and Montgomery. They will need to at least try to run the ball to keep the Faan Fran defense honest. The 49ers will be playing in their third straight Championship Game and fourth in the last five seasons. Deebo Samuel will go for the 49ers but for how long is a question. The offense is not as explosive when he is not in the lineup and the offense struggled last week against Green Bay. San Fran had a top-10 defense this season. The Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five and have gone 7-2 ATS on the road this season. San Francisco is 2-3 ATS in their last five and 3-6 ATS at home this season. I think Detroit will be able to keep up with the 49ers and if they can get pressure on Purdy, we have seen him throw interceptions when pressured. Goff has been in a Super Bowl in his career so I don’t think the pressure will get to him. Dan “Gamble” could be a blessing or a curse in this one. I think the Lions can keep it close and have a chance at an upset as they are playing with house money.

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The defending Super Bowl Champions Kansas City Chiefs go on the road to take on the No. 1 seed Baltimore Ravens for the AFC Championship. This will be a duel between Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson. This will be the sixth straight AFC Championship game for Mahomes and the Chiefs. Kansas City relied on their defense this season sd their defense struggled this season. The Chiefs rank 2nd in the NFL for the fewest yards allowed and 2nd for scoring defense. Their run defense will be tested in this one. The Ravens have one of the best defenses in the NFL. They can get pressure with their front four and do a very good job of disguising coverages. Kansas City’s receivers have struggled at times with drops and they can ill afford to drop passes and get into third and long plays. The Ravens are 12-6 ATS this season. The Chiefs bring the experience of Mahomes and Reid, but they had a  lot of inconsistency from their receiving room including the sure-handed Kelce. Baltimore finished the season as the 2nd best team against the spread. Baltimore allowed just 16.5 points per game and had the 6th best-passing defense in the league. It is hard to go against Mahomes but I can’t trust the Chiefs' receivers and Kelce will find it hard to get open over the middle with Queen and Smith dropping into coverage.

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We have been here before with the Buffalo Bills taking on the Kansas City Chiefs. They have split their 6 games since 2020 but the Chiefs have won both playoff games. During the season, the KC offense has not been as explosive as in years past, putting up 22.1 points a game. The defense has stepped up to make up for the offense, as they have allowed just 16.7 points per game, which was 2nd in the NFL. Buffalo has played well on both sides of the ball, especially down the stretch. At one point it looked like they would not even make the playoffs. On the offensive side, they are putting up 26.8 points per game. On the defensive side, they are giving up 18.2 points per game which is 4th best in the NFL.  The Bills have won the last three regular season matches while the Chiefs have taken both playoff games. This will be the first road game in the playoffs for Mahomes. Buffalo has been red hot as they have won six in a row. This should be a close game, but I don’t trust the receivers of Kansas City to come through in the clutch.

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The under has hit in the last 2 games between the Bills and the Chiefs with the last game landing on 37 points. Both team's strength this season has been their defense and I don’t see that changing in this one. The weather will be cold and I expect both teams to rely more on the running game, which will keep the clock running and shorten the game. I can’t trust the KC receivers to come through in the clutch. I am going with the under in this one

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Tampa Bay has gone under 12 times in 18 games and four straight. The Buccaneer defense has allowed just 11 points a game over their last four. On the road, Tampa Bay has gone in five of their nine games played on the road. Detroit has gone over the number in 11 of their 18 games this season. They have gone over in three of their last five and six of nine games played at Ford Field. Detroit’s offense will get the better of the Tampa Bay defense as Ben Johnson will be able to dial up plays to thwart the blitz and have a dynamic two-headed rushing attack to wear down the Buccaneers' defense. Tampa will score some points in this one as Detroit employs a bend but don’t break defense that gives up plays in the passing game.. 

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The San Francisco 49ers will be at home to take on the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Divisional Round. The 49ers, had the bye last week while Green Bay went down to Dallas and dominated the Cowboys. Green Bay, In their past three road games, have put up 38.0 points per game. For the season, they were 12th in scoring at 22.5 points a game. On the defensive side, they are giving up 20.6 points per game. San Fransisco finished third in the NFL in scoring at 28.9 points a game. The defense also finished third in points allowed with 17.5 points per game. 

The Packers looked great against Dallas last week and will need to play another flawless game this weekend on both sides of the ball. The 49ers' home record against the spread this season was just 3-5. Just like Baltimore, I like San Fran to win this game but not cover the large number.

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The Packers went over the number 11 times in 18 games while the 49ers went 9-7-1 to the over this season. The Packers' offense is playing with a lot of confidence after taking down Dallas in the way that they did. Green Bay has averaged 38.0 points a game in their last three road games. The 49ers are averaging  28.9 points per game this season. San Francisco should be able to run against the Packers' poor rush defense. There is a good chance one or both of these teams put up 30 in this one, I look for this game to go over the number.

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The AFC Divisional round starts things off with Houston visiting Baltimore. The Texans took care of the Cleveland Browns 45-14. The Ravens finished the season at 13-4 and had last weekend off. These two teams met earlier in the season, with the Ravens coming away with a 25-9 victory. I think these two teams are closer now than the first time they met. They both were 8-4 against teams with a winning record. Both quarterbacks have had excellent seasons with Jackson being the more dynamic runner and Stoud being the better passer. The Ravens have experience on their side but with Jackson as quarterback, they are just 1-3 in the playoffs. I think the Ravena will win this game but this is too many points to give a hungry Texans team that is playing really well and a Ravens team that has not shown they can win in the playoffs. Take the points.

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The Philadelphia Eagles won’t have to worry about the weather as they head to Florida to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Eagles stumbled down the stretch, losing three games in a row and the NFC East title. Tampa Bay finished strong, winning six of their last seven. Philadelphia has lost five of their previous six contests, including three straight away from home. The Eagles rank seventh in scoring at 28.9 points per game. On the defensive side of the ball, they are giving up 25.2 points per game. Jalen Hurts has not thrown a football since he injured his finger on Sunday. A.J. Brown did not practice Thursday and is listed as questionable with a knee injury. The Eagles' defense has been a big letdown over the last few games and they will need to step up if the Eagles are going to do anything in this game. The Buccaneers rank 20th in scoring at 20.5 points per game. They could only put up 9 last week against a bad Carolina team. The defense is ranked seventh, allowing 19.1 points per game. Baker Mayfield missed Thursday's walkthrough due to ankle and rib injuries and is questionable. The Eagles played the Bucs earlier this year in Tampa, coming away with the win and cover. The Bucs have lost two of their last three games against the spread at home. The Bucs have the 29th-ranked pass defense so the Eagles should be able to find some success through the air no matter who is under center. Mayfield has been a good story this season but I still have no trust in him and the Carolina game did not change that. Take the Eagles in this one, in what looks like a close game.

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When they met earlier this season the game went under the number. The Eagles' defense allowed the Buccaneers just 11 points but has not been playing like that defense over the last few games. Tampa Bay has gone under in three straight. The Eagles have gone under in three of their last five games and their offense has scored 17 points or less three times over those five games. Tampa Bay's defense ranks in the top 10 in the NFL in average points allowed per game. Both quarterbacks are banged up and AJ Brown is questionable for the Eagles. If the Eagles try and run the ball they will be going against a top 10 rushing defense. Tampa Bay scored just nine points against a bad Carolina defense and if the Eagles' defense can play better, they can make it difficult for the Buccaneer offense. I like this game to go under the number.

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By moving this game to Monday, the weather outlook has changed and so has the total. One thing for sure is that it will be cold and there should still be wind but not as bad as it would have been on Sunday. I still look for both teams to try and run the ball especially Pittsburgh who will look to shorten the game and pull off the upset The weather does not change the fact that these are two of the best defenses in the NFL. Pittsburgh allowed 19 and the Bills allowed a little over more than 18 points per game. Buffalo’s kicking game has been inconsistent and in this weather, we could see both teams going for it more on fourth down. I like this game to go under the number.

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Matthew Stafford comes back to the Motor City as the Los Angeles Rams take on the Detroit Lions. Detroit finished the season with a 12-5 record while the Rams won their last four in a row to finish at 10-7. The Rams had to deal with injuries early in the season which led to inconsistent play from their offense. Matthew Stafford threw for 3,965 yards with 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.  Kyren Williams rushed for 1,144 yards with 12 touchdowns. The offense put up 23.8 points per game and allowed  22.2 points per game. The Lions played their starters last week as they were looking to stay in a groove and even though they came away with a win, it came at a cost as Sam Laporta was lost to an injury. For the season, Jared Goff threw for 4,575 yards, with 30 touchdowns and 12 interceptions.  Gibbs and David Montgomery were a two-headed monster in the backfield with  Montgomery rushing for 1015 yards while Gibbs rushed for 945. Montgomery rushed for 13 touchdowns and Gibbs added ten. Amon-Ra St. Brown had a team-high 119 receptions and 1,515 yards. The offense put up 27.1 points per game, ranking 5th, while the defense allowed 23.2 points per game. 

The Rams have more playoff experience which could play a factor in this game. The Lions had a top-five scoring defense early in the season but has not been the same since November. The Rams have scored 25 or more points in six of their last seven games. The Lions have a young team on the rise but their coach has shown that he will gamble at inopportune times sometimes with success but when he fails he puts his defense and team at a disadvantage, As much as it pains me, I will be taking the Rams and the points in this one.

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Both teams rely on their offense to score a lot of points and hope their defenses can get enough stops to pick up the win. The Rams like to get things going in a hurry and I look for him to establish the passing game right off the back looking for quick scores to put the Lions on their heels. Detroit had a top-five offense in nearly every category this season. The Lions have hit the over in seven of their last nine contests while the Rams have hit the over in six of their last seven. Early in the season, Detroit had a top-five defense but that has fallen off since November and they have allowed a lot of points to offenses not as explosive as the Rams. Dan Campbells' propensity to gamble on fourth down could lead to shorter fields for the Rams' offense in the second half if the Lions find themselves trailing. I am looking for a high-scoring scoring back-and-forth game in this one.

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The Green Bay Packers square off against the Dallas Cowboys in Jerry’s World. Green Bay finished the season at 9-8 while Dallas is the second seed after going 12-5. The Packers were 6-8 and looking out of the playoffs but won three in a row and got in. Jordan Love will be making his first career playoff start. He threw for 4,159 yards with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. The defense played well this season and allowed 20.6 points per game this season, which is 10th overall. Dallas comes into this game having won their last two games of the season. Dak Prescott threw for 4,516 yards with 36 touchdowns and nine picks. CeeDee Lamb had a league-high 135 catches for 1,749 receiving yards and 12 TDs. The Dallas defense was fifth overall in points allowed at 18.5 per game. I don’t like laying a touchdown in the playoffs but I am on the Cowboys in this one. The Dallas offense has been explosive at home and I see them putting up points on the Green Bay defense. ThisLove’s first playoff start and he will be facing a defense that can dial up pressure and force the quarterback into throws he doesn’t want to make. Throw in the fact that the Packers' best receiver is questionable and the rest of the receiving corps is young and inexperienced, I see that as a recipe for disaster. Lay the touchdown with the Cowboys.

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Dallas averaged 37.4 points per game when playing at home this season. The over went 5-3 in their home games this season. Dallas should be able to move the ball through the air against the 20th-ranked pass defense in terms of yards per attempt. Jordon Love was seventh in passing yards and second in touchdowns, behind Dak. I think both offenses will find success and we could see some garbage time points from the Pack late to put this one over the number.

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In what could have been a high-scoring affair in Miami could be a lot different in the bitter cold of Kansas City. The third-seeded Kansas City Chiefs take on the sixth-seeded Miami Dolphins. These two teams met earlier this season in Germany, with Kansas City winning 21-14. It is forecasted to be cold with temperatures hovering around zero degrees and there is a 50% chance of snow. Miami finished the season at 11-6, but only beat one team with a winning record (at the time of playing). The dolphins are dealing with a rash of injuries at the wrong time of the season. Left tackle Terron Armstead could be a big problem for the offensive line if he cannot go.  Defensive backs Jevon Holland and DeShon Elliott are uncertain and  Xavien Howard has been ruled out. Wide receiver Jaylen Waddle and running back Raheem Mostert are looking like they will go but just how healthy are they? The Chiefs did not have an easy time this season. They started the season 6-1 but struggled the rest of the way. With the temperatures expected near zero, this will be one of the coldest games in NFL history. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are 4-2 against the number in playoff games since 2021. Miami does not have a lot of playoff experience to fall back on and have a first-time head coach. The Dolphins were 1-3 as road underdogs this season. The weather could be a huge factor for the Dolphins as they are used to the warm to moderate temperatures of South Beach. Tyreke has played in Kansas City. so he should have some pointers for the rest of his teammates on how to handle the cold weather. Miami has the offense and defense to win this game but with all the injuries it will be more difficult. If Mostert can go and he is teamed with Archane, the Dolphins could move the ball on the ground against the Chiefs' 18th-ranked rushing defense. The Chiefs offense is not as dominant as in years past as the Wide receiving core has been a huge disappointment this season. The Chiefs have lost three of their last four home games. With Meostart expected to go, it gives Miam two solid running backs for the elements. I am taking the points,

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While the Chiefs have been synonymous with offensive firepower in recent years, their performance this season has seen a notable shift, reflected in their 5-12-0 record against the over. This suggests that, despite their history, the Chiefs have been involved in lower-scoring contests this season. Additionally, the frigid conditions at Arrowhead Stadium, with temperatures around zero degrees and a 50% chance of snow, create an environment less conducive to the high-scoring, fast-paced "track team" style often associated with the Miami Dolphins. Traveling to play in the cold can disrupt offensive rhythm, and the Dolphins' less-than-ideal record as road underdogs adds further weight to the argument for a lower-scoring game. Taking into account these factors, the Under 43.5 slaps you in the face and begs you to take it.

Prediction: Under 43.5

I am sure this matchup was not on many lists at the start of the season. Cleveland and Houston meet in an AFC Wild Card clash. The Browns come in at 11-6 overall and against the number. Finished the season at 10-7 SU and 9-8 ATS. The Browns played really well down the stretch going 4-1 over their last five games, the only loss being the last game of the season while they rested players. Joe Flacco led a Cleveland offense that averaged 27.6 points over their final five and this season they scored 23.3 points per game overall. The Cleveland defense allowed 21.3 points per game. They led the NFL in total yards allowed at 270.2 per game. The Texans also were good down the stretch, going 3-1 over their last four games to win the AFC South behind a rookie quarterback. The Texan's offense averaged 22.2 points per game and the defense allowed 20.8 points per game. These teams met on Christmas Eve, and the Browns came away with a 36-22 win. Flacco threw for 368 yards three touchdowns and two interceptions. The Texans played the game with C.J. Stroud in this game. Stroud will be making his first playoff start and does not have history on his side. Quarterbacks making their first postseason appearance are 27-50 straight-up and 30-46-1 against the spread since 2002. Flacco has been here before and if he can limit interceptions he should be able to throw against a Texans defense that is 23rd against the pass. Stroud finished with the eighth-most sacks taken even though he played in only 15 games and i think the Browns defense will be able to pressure on Stroud throughout the game. The Browns, 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS as favorites this season. 

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Tampa Bay goes on the road to meet the Carolina Panthers. The Buccaneers are  8-8 this season and tied for first place in the NFC South. If the Buccaneers win against the Panthers, Tampa Bay will clinch the division. Tampa Bay had a four-game win streak snapped in their last game. Tampa Bay is putting up 21.2 points per game and on the defensive end, they are giving up 20.3 points per game. Tampa Bay is 10-6 against the spread this season and 7-1 against the spread when they have played on the road. The Carolina Panthers are 2-14  this season and have lost four of their last five under interim head coach Chris Tabor. Carolina is putting up just 14.8 points per game which surprisingly isn’t the worst in the league. On the defensive side, they are giving up  25.4 points per game. The Panthers are 4-10-2 against the spread this season. They are 3-3-1 against the spread when they have played at home. Tampa Bay has everything to play for while Carolina has had nothing to play for since the season started. I expect the Buc’s defense to be able to shut down the woeful Panther offense. The Bucs are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games overall and 7-1 ATS in their previous eight outings away from home. They’ve won six of their previous seven games against the Panthers, covering five times. I am laying the points with Tampa Bay in this one.

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The  Atlanta Falcons head to New Orleans to take on the Saints with playoff implications for both teams. Atlanta has lost three of the last four while New Orleans has won three of its last four. Atlanta will clinch the title in the NFC South with a victory over New Orleans and a loss by Tampa Bay. New Orleans will clinch the NFC South with a win and a loss or tie by Tampa Bay. The Atlanta Falcons offense is 26th in the NFL with 19.0 points per game. Atlanta’s defense is giving up  20.3 points per game which is 10th in the NFL. New Orleans is putting up  22.1 points per game which is 14th in the NFL. They shine on the defensive side of the ball, where they rank 6th, giving up 19.4 points. Atlanta has been a merry-go-round at the quarterback position while the Saints have had Derek Carr under center the whole season. That consistency will be key for the Saints today. Atlanta has covered the spread in just four of its last 15 games while New Orleans has covered the spread in five of its last seven played during January. New Orleans will be looking for revenge after losing the first game between the two. Both teams have very good defenses but the offensive edge goes to the Saints. I am taking the Saints at home with the more consistent quarterback.

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The Pittsburgh Steelers go on the road to play the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers will once again go with Mason Rudolph at quarterback. Pittsburgh's offense is putting up just 17.9 points per game this season. On the defensive side, they are giving up 19.6 points per game. The Ravens locked up the top seed in the AFC and will be resting some key players in this game, including quarterback Lamar Jackson. The Ravens will give the start to Tyler Huntley. Baltimore is putting up 29.6 points a game and is giving up 16.4.  Tyler Huntley has proven to be a capable quarterback and I like the Ravens to keep this one close. The Steelers have won their last two games with Rudolph under center but the offense is not lighting the world on fire. In seven meetings between these teams since 2020, the largest margin of victory was by seven points. Five of those seven games finished within four points. Both defenses have been really good this season and with Baltimore at home, I like this game to come down to a field goal. Take the points with Baltimore.

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The under has hit in 10 of Pittsburgh's first 12 games this season. Their defense has not allowed a lot of points and their offense struggles to score as well. With  Lamar Jackson not playing, you can trust the Ravens offense to be as efficient and I would expect them to run the ball more which in essence will run the clock and speed the game up. The Steelers held the Ravens to 10 points when they met earlier in the season. Baltimore and Pittsburgh have great defenses, and I expect both offenses to run the ball. This season, Pittsburgh is 10-6 in hitting the under, and on the road is 5-2. I am looking for a tight, low-scoring game. 

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The 8-7 Pittsburgh Steelers clash with the 8-7 Seattle Seahawks in a non-conference battle that has playoff implications for both teams. The Steelers are in the 9th spot in the AFC, while the Seahawks are the 7th seed in the NFC. The Pittsburgh Steelers will go with Mason Rudolph once again over Kenny Pickett. Seattle controls their playoff destiny with two weeks remaining in the regular season. Seattle has covered in three straight in this series and in four of their last five, while Pittsburgh has only covered once in their last four games. Seattle has a home-field advantage and a more explosive offense. Rudolph played well last week but as we have seen this season backups struggle at some point and I think this will be that week for Rudolph. Take Seattle in this one.

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The Atlanta Falcons and the Chicago Bears do battle in the NFC.  Atlanta comes in at 7-8 SU, 5-10 ATS while Chicago is 6-9 SU, 7-6-2 ATS. The Falcons are in second place in the NFC South, a game behind Tampa Bay, and ninth overall in the conference. Atlanta is scoring 19.1 points per game. On the defensive side, they are giving up 19.2 points per game this season. The Bears are 12th in the NFC and dead last in the NFC North. They are 3-1 SU over their last four and 4-2 SU over their last six. They are putting up 20.9 points a game and have averaged 24 points per game over their last three games. Chicago’s defense is giving up  23 points per game on the year but just 14.8 points per game over the last four. These teams have split the last four meetings, but Chicago is 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS over the last five games. Both teams like to try and run the ball but Chicago has the better run defense. The Bears defense has been outstanding and the offense is coming around. The weather could be bad which will give the Bears an advantage. Take Chicago at home to get the win.

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The LA Rams come into this game on a nice run. They are 8-7 SU; 9-5-1 ATS and have gone 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games. The New York Giants are just 5-10 SU and 6-8-1 ATS. The Giants have covered in four of their last five and are 6-3-1 ATS over their last 10, They are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four as home underdogs. The Rams have scored 30 or more in four of their last five games, and in the only game they didn’t hit the 30 mark, they scored 28. New York will go with Tyrod Taylor under center for this game. The Giants have not scored more than 20 points in consecutive games this season. The Giants offense has been bad all season and I am not convinced Taylor will make that big of a difference. The Ram's offense has been firing on all cylinders and I expect them to continue that success against the Giant's defense, The Rams should be able to move the ball on the ground and through the air and I expect them to control the game from the start. Lay the points with the Rams.

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The Detroit Lions take on the Dallas Cowboys in a battle of playoff teams. Detroit comes into this game at 11-4 while Dallas is currently 10-5. Detroit has won two in a row. And won the NFC North last week. The Cowboys have dropped two straight and consecutive games and are a game behind the Eagles. This will not be a letdown spot for the Lions after winning the north last week. The Lions know it is important for them to try and get the second seed and be able to play games at Ford Field. Yes, the Cowboys are 7-0 at home but outside of the Eagles, they have not played a tough home schedule. Dallas has struggled against tough competition this season and comes into this game losing to the Bills and Dolphins the last two weeks. The Cowboys are just 18th in the NFL stopping the run and the Lions have one of the top rushing attacks with Gibbs and Montgomery. The Lions are 5-2 on the road this season. The Lions are also 3-1 in prime-time games this season. Goff will be playing indoors which is a plus and the Lion's offensive line is healthy. This is too many points for what should be a close game.

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The Lions have the fifth-best scoring offense and the Cowboys are sixth in scoring offense. The Lions have gone over the total in three of their last four games while the Cowboys have gone over the total in three of their last five games.  Dallas is putting up just under 40 points per game at home this season. Detroit is the fourth-best scoring offense on the road this season. Playing indoors, Goff is completing  70.1% of his passes with 20 touchdowns. I think this will be a track meet with both teams having a good chance to get in the 30’s. Take the over in this one.

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The New York Jets head to Cleveland to take on the Cleveland Browns.  New York is 6-9 SU, while Cleveland is 10-5 SU,as well as 10-5 ATS. The Jets have gone 2-1 SU over their last three games, but they had lost five in a row before that. The Jets offense is 30th in the NFL in scoring at just 15.4 points per game. On the defensive end, the Jets are giving up 21 points a game but have given up 29 points in their last two games. The Browns, despite all their struggles at quarterback this season, have won three in a row and are fifth place in the AFC. Cleveland’s offense is putting up 23 points a game this season and they have averaged 29 points per game over their last three games. On the defensive end, the Browns are giving up 22 points per game. New York is 7-3 SU and ATS in the last ten games. The Jets are on their fourth different quarterback and with Zach Wison not expected to make it back, The Brown's defense will be able to tee off on the Jets' offense. Over their last eight games, the Jets are 1-7 ATS. In their last nine games, Cleveland is 7-2 ATS and 3-0 ATS over their last three. At the end of the season, motivation can become a factor and the Browns have all the motivation in this one. The Browns can clinch a playoff spot with a win, while the Jets are hoping this nightmare season will be over soon. The Jets only rank 30th in scoring and will have trouble putting up points against Cleveland's top-ranked defense. I am looking for Cleveland’s defense to control this game and the offense to score enough to cover.

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This is a pretty low number and I can see the Browns pitching a shutout but will go with a flier on the over. The Jets scored 30 last week and the Browns have been scoring over their three-game winning streak and the Jets defense has averaged 29 points the last two games. Cleveland has gone over in four of their last five games. They have scored at least 36 total points in eight of their last ten meetings. Cleveland’s offense has scored at least 21 points in nine games this season. With Flacco under center, they have averaged 26.5 points per game. The over is 4-1 in Cleveland’s last five games and 2-1 in the Jets last three.

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This is a potential Super Bowl matchup in February. The Ravens match up well against the 49ers on both sides of the ball which makes this number a little high for a game that could come down to who has the ball last. Baltimore has been favored in all but one of their games this season. The one time they were an underdog, they won outright. The Ravens are 4th in scoring offense and 1st in scoring defense. The 49ers are good and playing really well at the moment but let's not forget they did lose three in a row earlier in the season. Baltimore’s defense will give Purdy and the offense some problems. I am taking the points in this one.

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It is going to be hard to establish long drives and I would expect the offenses to break down before the defenses. These are two of the best defenses in the league. Baltimore is first in defensive scoring, and San Francisco is second. I don’t see a lot of long plays with a lot of underneath passes in the passing game. Both teams will look to establish a running game and with a lot of short passes you can get some long time-consuming drives but I don’t see a lot of touchdowns. I can understand liking the over as both offenses are high-powered but I like the defenses to shine in this one. 

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The Eagles defense has not been as stout as people had thought it would be this season. The Giants have the worst passing game in the country and the Eagles have the second-best rushing defense. The Giants are also near the bottom in third-down conversions. The Giants have gone under in 10 of 14 games. The Giants D will be no match for the Eagles offense. The Eagles have too many weapons and I expect them to come out firing and try to get the offense back on track. I like the Eagles to score in the 30’s themselves and the Giants will score just enough to push this over the number. 

Play on the over. This is a 3% play.

When they last met, these two combined for 48 points, which marked the sixth time in the last seven meetings between these two teams that went over the number. This season these two teams have gone under in 19 of 28 games. You have to throw out last week's game against the Chargers but in the four games before the Chargers game, Vegas didn’t score more than 17 points in a game. They have not scored more than 17 points in 10 games this season. Las Vegas has stayed under the number in four of their six road games this season. Five of the Chiefs’ six home games have gone under the number. Both defenses are in the top 10 in scoring and I am looking for a low-scoring game in this one. KC has not been putting up a ton of points on their own and I don’t see the Raiders scoring much in this one.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 3% play.

These are the top two scoring offenses in the NFL. The Cowboys' offense isn't as strong on the road as it is at home. If Hill can’t go or is even slowed, the Dolphins' fast-paced offense losing something. The Cowboys are ranked just 15th in the NFL in turning red zone opportunities into touchdowns while the Dolphins have dropped to 21st in the NFL. Miami is banged up at wideout, offensive line, and running back. Tua and the offense will struggle against the Cowbow’s fron seven and the Miami defense should be able to slow Dak down. I am looking for a tighter defensive game in this one.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 3% play.

The Lions played their most complete game of the season and possibly in years last week against the Broncos. They look to clinch the NFC North with a win. Detroit has proven they can win on the road and with a backup for the Vikings at quarterback they should have confidence coming into this one. Detroit has one of the league's best running games and should be able to control the ball on the ground, which will open up their passing game. Detroit has covered the spread in two of their last three games, while Minnesota hasn't covered in any of their last three.  Detroit has covered in five straight against the Vikings. Detroit’s offense is not as good on the road, but they will be indoors for this one. Detroit has its eye on the prize and will come away with the NFC North title.

Play on Detroit. This is a 3% play.

Both offenses can put up points and both defenses have given up points at times this season. The Vikings have the league's best receiver back on the outside and will be definitely targeting him in this game. Detroit may not have the best receiver, but they do have one of the best and a loaded receivers room to with him. They also have a two-headed monster in the rushing game, which when not grinding out yards is an integral part of the passing game. The over has hit in the last three games between these two and in five of Detroit's last six games overall. 

Play on the OVER. 

Without CJ Stroud, Houston has moved to a more rush-focused offense with Devin Singletary getting most of the work. Both teams rely on field goals and defense and that is even more pronounced now with both teams going with backups. The Texans are 18th in the league with 32 touchdowns while Cleveland is 22nd with 30. The under has hit in 4 of the last 5 for the Texans. With Houston relying on the run and I don't think the get much from the passing game, and the Brown’s offense being what it is, I like this game under the number.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 3% play. 

The Buffalo Bills go on the road to take on the Los Angeles Chargers. The Bills won two straight and three of their last four. They have scored at least 30 points in three of those games. They are in the top 10 in passing and running the ball. They will be facing a Chargers defense that does not defend the ball well and is worse against the pass.  The Chargers fired coach Brandon Staley and general manager Tom Telesco, They have lost five of their last six games including two straight and three straight home games. They have not scored more than 20 points in four of their last five games. Easton Stick will be under center so don’t expect much from their passing game and their running game is poor. It is hard to see the Chargers getting up for this game after quitting last week against the Raiders. Lay the points with the Bills.

Play on Buffalo. This is a 3% play.

We have an AFC North showdown with huge playoff implications between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincinnati comes into this contest at 8-6 and sixth in AFC while Pittsburgh is currently 7-7 and sits 10th in the playoff hunt. The Bengals Jake Browning has guided the Bengals to three straight wins after losing his first start at quarterback. The Steelers have lost three in a row and will be going with a new quarterback. TJ Watt leads the NFL in sacks and should be able to apply pressure to Browning and cause some bad throws. The Bengals will be without Chase in this one.  It is hard to believe Tomlin could be in trouble, I look for Pittsburgh to rely on their defense and eke out a win.

Play on Pittsburgh. This is a 3%  play.

The Bengals’ run defense ranks 28th in the league, allowing 128.3 yards per game. I expect Pittsburgh to try and loosen the load on Mason Rudolph and try to establish Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren on the ground and shorten the game. The under has cashed in 10 of the last 14 games between these two teams when the game is played in Pittsburgh. This will be an AFC North battle that will rely on the defenses and with no Chase, the Bengals offense will be more limited.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 3% play.

The last two games between the two have gone over the number. Both teams rank in the top half of the league in several key offensive categories. The Ravens rank at in the top 10 in the league in average points scored per game on the road.  Baltimore has scored 20 or more points in three straight games on the road. The Jaguars have gone over the total in four of their last five games played at home and they scored 30 or more in three of their last four. The Jaguars' defense ranks in the bottom half of points per game allowed. They give up more points at home than on the road. Baltimore has gone over in three of their last four games. Jacksonville has given up 30 points in back-to-back games against backup quarterbacks. I would expect Baltimore to do the same. Jacksonville could struggle with Lawrence's slack of mobility but they should do enough to put this one over the number.

Play on the over. This is a 3% play

The San Francisco 49ers have a division matchup with the Arizona Cardinals. San Francisco comes into this game at 10-3 while Arizona is currently 3-10. San Francisco has won five in a row. The Cardinals were in the running for the top draft pick but for some reason, they have decided to win two of their last four games. San Fran has been blowing teams out over their winning streak, with an average margin in their wins being 19.4 points. They have the league’s third-best offense with 29.2 points a game. They will be facing a Cardinals defense that ranks 30th with 25.5 points allowed per game. San Francisco is 4-2 ATS in their last six matchups against the Cardinals. San Fran is in a fight for the top spot in the NFC and even though they are in the driver's seat they can’t let up on the gas.

Play on San Fran. This is a 3% play.

The Carolina Panthers come in at 1-12 and unfortunately, they don’t own the No. 1 draft pick in the upcoming draft. The Atlanta Falcons come in at 6-7 and are hungry for a win. The Buccaneers, Falcons, and Saints are tied for the NFC South so all games count for the Falcons.  Atlanta will rely on their defense which ranks 12th in scoring at 20.7 points per game. They give up 3.9 yards per rush (10th) and 6.6 yards per pass attempt (8th) which will be tough for the struggling Panthers offense to overcome. Atlanta's offense scored just 15 points last week and has exceeded 20 points in four of their past five games. On the season, they have put up 19.3 points a game as they have spent the season trying to find a consistent quarterback.  Carolina’s offense has struggled to integrate a rookie into an offense with no weapons or offensive line. They are putting up just 15.2 points per game and have failed to score a touchdown in 3 games this season. The Panthers' defense spends too much time on the field and gets tired late. They have given up 26.2 points per game. The Falcons score 19.3 points per game and should find success against a Panther defense that allows 26.2 points per game. The Falcons took the first game of the season by 14 and I can't see how Carolina has made significant improvement. Only two teams score fewer points than the Panthers. I look for Atlanta to move the ball on the ground with Robinson and pick their spots through the air. Take Atlanta to win this game.

Play on Atlanta. This is a 5% play.

The Chicago Bears somehow find themselves in the mix for the playoffs as they are 13th in the NFC with a 5-8 record. They do come in on a two-game winning streak. The Cleveland Browns have been playing well despite a ton of injuries. They are the fifth seed in the AFC with an 8-5 record. The Bears' offense is putting up 20.8 points a game. They are fourth in the league with 138.0 rushing yards a game and will need to establish the run to minimize the Brown’s pass rush. The defense is giving up 23.8 points per game but has been playing better since Montez Sweat joined the defense. They have allowed just 23 combined points over the last two games. The Cleveland Browns are putting up 22.2 points a game. They are a dominant running team ranking seventh in the NFL. Joe Flacco has been playing well since joining the team. This defense has allowed just 20.9 points a game but will be without their leading tackler and second-best pass rusher. Chicago is allowing 16.8 points in their previous four games while Cleveland is giving up a remarkable 30.7 points in their last three games. Chicago can continue winning games with a chance to make the playoffs and be locked into the top pick in the NFL draft. Cleveland will be without two top defensive players, both offensive tackles and a guard. Sweat has made a huge difference to the Bears pass rush and Flacco is not that mobile. I think the Bears' defense will be the difference and the Bears have a great chance to win this game outright.

Play on Chicago. This is a 5% play

The Detroit defense has been terrible over the last few games as they have had to deal with injuries throughout the year. Russel Wilson is not as mobile as Fields but the Lions have had issues with running quarterbacks.This will be a shootout with both teams having a big day offensively. Detroit has gone over in four of their last five, and four of five against the Broncos. Denver has scored at least 21 points in four of their last five games. The Lions' defense is giving up an average of 29.8 points in their last five games. The Lions have scored at least 31 points in three of their last five games. The over is 4-1 in the Lions' last five games. 

Play on the OVER. This is a 5% play.

Pittsburgh and Indianapolis enter the week in those 6th and 7th playoff spots in the conference, but four other teams share a 7-6 SU record with them. Both teams will be going with a backup QB this week. The Colts offense ranks 8th in Points per Game at 24.2 and the Colts defense ranks 29th in Opponent Points per Game at 25.4. Those two factors tend to put Colts games over the number. They have gone over the number in three straight and in six of the past eight games. Pittsburgh hasn't scored more than 20 points in over a month. Pittsburgh has gone under in 10 of their 13 games, as they rely on their defense to make plays. The Steelers are still only 27th in scoring. Both teams are on their backup quarterbacks, and will probably rely more on the ground game to attempt to keep this game close. I am looking for a low-scoring AFC battle and I don’t see Pittsburgh doing enough to put this game over the number.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 3% play. 

The Cincinnati Bengals will play host to the Minnesota Vikings in an intra-conference matchup. Cincinnati is 7-6 overall and sits in 10th place in the AFC, tied with four other teams. The Vikings are also 7-6 overall and in sixth place in the NFC. The Vikings have won six of their last eight after starting the season 1-4. Nick Mullens replaced Dobbs in the fourth quarter and will get the start in this game. He may be without one of the best receivers in the league with Justin Jefferson being listed as for questionable for Saturday’s game. Alexander Mattison, wide receiver Jalen Nailor, and guard Dalton Risner are also questionable. The Vikings are putting up 20.5 points per game which ranks 21st.and on the defensive side of the ball, they are giving up 18.6 points per game. The Vikings are 7-4-2 against the spread this season. Jake Browning has been decent since replacing Burrow going 2-1. He could be without wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd who are listed as questionable for Saturday’s game. Cincinnati is putting up 21.5 points per game and on the defensive side, they are giving up 22.1 points per game.  

The Bengals are 6-6-1 against the spread this season. They are 2-1 against the spread since Burrow’s injury. Both teams have gone to back-up quarterbacks and in the Vikings case, it will be their fourth. The Vikings offense will not be able to move the ball well enough to come close to winning on Saturday. The Bengals have won two straight games and have scored more than 30 points in both games. The Vikings' pass defense isn’t very good, so I expect them to struggle to slow down the Bengals' passing game. The Vikings have lost two of their last three games and haven’t looked good on offense. Take Cincinnati to cover the spread.

Play on Cincinnati. This is 3% play

Two teams with nothing to play for meet up for Thursday Night Football. The Los Angeles Chargers are 5-8 overall this season and just 4-8-1 ATS. Las Vegas is 5-8 overall and 6-5-2 ATS. The Chargers have lost four of their last five games, and have lost Herbert for the season.  Over their last three games, they’ve averaged just 7.7 points per game on offense. For the season, they have put up 21.7 points a game and the defense has allowed 21.7 points per game. The Raiders offense hasn’t scored more than 17 points in any of their last three games and for the season they are putting up just 15.5 points per game. On the defensive side, they are giving up just 19.9 points per game, which ranks ninth in the league. Over the last ten meetings, the Raiders hold a slight 5-4-1 ATS advantage. The Chargers struggled to score with Herbert out last week and I don’t see them doing much against the Raider’s defense. The Raiders are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games and the Chargers are 1-4 ATS. The Raiders didn’t score last week but come in as the favorite. I think they will be able to move the ball enough against the Chargers' defense to score some points. I can’t see how a Chargers team playing with a third-string quarterback and no running game will be able to score against the Vegas defense. It may take the Vegas defense to score to win this one.

Play on the Vegas Raiders on the money line. This is a 4% play.

These two teams have scored a combined 33 points in their last two games. Los Angeles kicked just two field goals against New England and have scored a total of just 23 points over their last three games. They struggle to run the ball and will be going with a third-string quarterback. Vegas has a decent defense that will limit the Chargers' already limited offense. The Raiders’ offense has only once scored over 17 points in their six games. The under is 6-4 in the last ten meetings between these two. The under is also 8-2 in the Raiders' last ten games and 9-1 in the Chargers' last ten. The Raiders and Vikings combined to score three points last week, and the Chargers and Patriots only combined to score six points in the previous week. This game will be ugly and I don’t see a lot of scoring in this game.

Play on the UNDER.

Monday Night Football features the Tennessee Titans and the Miami Dolphins. The Titans rank 25th in scoring with 17.8 points per game. On the defensive end, they are giving up 21.3 points per game which ranks 16th. Miami leads the league in total offense with 428.4 yards per game and is 2nd in scoring with 32.0 points. Their defense is not as good as the offense as they rank 21st in the league by allowing 22.2 points per game. The Dolphins managed to put up 45 last weekend and even though they might not hit that score they will score in this one. The Titans rank 22nd in passing defense while Miami’s strength is the passing game. I am looking for a huge game from Hill in this one. The Titans have gone over in two of their last three games, while the Dolphins have gone over in two straight. With the Titans allowing 31 to the Colts, and 34 to the Jaguars I can see the Dolphins at least being able to get in the 30s. The Titans will more than likely lean on Levis and the passing game and as long as he has a decent game, the Titans should be able to move into scoring position a few times this game. Miami will score most of the points but Tennessee will do enough to put this one over the number.

Play on the OVER. This is a 3% play.

The Denver Broncos have a date with AFC West rivals the LA Chargers, The Broncos have won five of their last six games. The Chargers are coming off a win over the Patriots which snapped a three-game losing streak. The Broncos have won five of their last six games and have scored at least 24 points in three of their last five games. The Chargers have lost three of their last four games. Denver likes to run the ball and should have success against a Chargers defense that has struggled to stop the run. I like Denver to control this game on the ground and their defense will limit the Chargers passing game. Take the points with Denver.

Play on Denver, This is a 4% play  Play.

The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a bye week and are 6-6 on the season. They travel to Sin City to take on the 5–7 Las Vegas Raiders. Both teams come into this one with two straight losses. Even though the Vikings lost Cousins for the season and Jefferson for a few games, they still rank 6th in Passing Yards/Game at 258.6. With Jefferson back in the lineup, Dobbs has another reliable weapon in his arsenal. Las Vegas has only scored more than 17 points once in their last six games. Jefferson's return adds a spark to the Vikings offense. The Vikings' defense hasn't given up much in the first half of games so I am looking for the Vikings to get out to an early lead in this one. The Raiders struggled in pass pro, allowing 28 quarterback sacks this season, and will struggle against a Vikings defense that has recorded 32 quarterback sacks. Las Vegas is putting up just 16.8 per game. The Vikings have covered the number in their last five road games and six of their last seven overall. Las Vegas failed to cover the number in nine of their last twelve against NFC opponents. Take the Vikings to cover the number in this one.

Play on Minnesota on the money line. This is a 4% play.

The Detroit Lions go on the road to the Windy City to face NFC North rivals the Chicago Bears. The Lions have won the last three matchups. The Lions are 9-3 on the season and they hold a three-game lead over the Packers and Vikings in the NFC North. The Lions are 4th in passing offense with 263.3 yards a game. Detroit is also 4th in rushing at 137.3 yards a game. They are  6th in scoring at 27.3 points a game/ On the defensive side of the ball they give up 23.8 points per game. The Bears are 4-8 on the season and are last in the NFC North, five games behind the Lions. The Bears are putting up 20.2 points a game with the 3rd best rushing attack at 137.7 yards a game and the 25th-ranked passing offense with 185.6 yards per game. On the defensive side, they are giving up 24.7 points per contest. The weather is expected to be cold and windy for this game. If weather affects the Lion’s passing game they have shown they can run the ball with Montgomery and Gibbs. The Lions have won four of their last five games and are 5-1 on the road this season. The Bears are only 2-3 in their last five games and 2-3 at home. The Bears do not have the offense to keep up with the Lions. They have scored 17 or fewer points in four of their last five games. Detroit is the better team and will find a way to pull out the win.

Play on Detroit. This is a 4% play.

Detroit has gone over the number in eight of their 12 games on the season including their last four and in four of their six road games this season. Chicago has gone over in seven of their 12 games this season. The Bears have gone over in three of their five home games this season. These two teams put up 57 points in their first game this season.  Detroit has averaged 32 points in their last four games. The Lions have given up at least 28 points in three of their last four bouts. The over is 4-0 in the Lions’ last four games. I am expecting a lot of points in this one and see it going over the number,

Play on the OVER. This is a 4% play.

Another Thursday night in the NFL and again it is one of those for die-hard betters and not much else. The New England Patriots are on the road to face the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Patriots lost 6-0 to the Chargers last week and Pittsburgh lost 24-10 to Arizona. Nothing has gone right for the Patriots this season. They have lost five in a row and have been held to seven points or less for three straight games and five times this season. Whether it be Bailey Zappe or Mac Joned, the quarterback position has been dreadful this season. The Patriots are 23rd in passing offense, 22nd in the league in rushing offense, and 32nd in scoring offense at 12.3 points per game. On the defensive side, they are 16th in scoring defense at 21.2 points per game. The Steelers are 7-5 on the season and they hold the top wild-card spot in the AFC with four teams with 7-5 records. The Steelers rank 28th in passing offense, 14th in rushing offense, and 28th in scoring offense at 16 points per contest. On the defensive side, they rank 6th in scoring defense, giving up 19.1 points per game. Both teams have not gotten much from their quarterbacks and now the Steelers will be without Pickett for the next couple of weeks. I am not sure it will be any worse. New England’s offense has been terrible all season coming in last in the league in scoring. For what it is worth Pittsburgh has at least been able to move the ball on offense the last couple of weeks. It doesn't matter if it is Zappe or Jones, the loss of Stevenson is a big detriment to the Patriots' offense. I don’t see how they move the ball against the Pittsburgh defense. The Chargers only needed six points to get the win and I think the Steelers will score a little more and shut out the Patriots once again. 

Play on Pittsburgh. This is a 3% play.

New England has gone under the total in nine of their 12 games this season. They have gone under the number in four of their five road games this season and have gone under in four straight. Pittsburgh has gone under the total in 10 of their 12 games on the year. Five of their seven home games have gone under the number. Over their last five games, the Patriots offense has averaged 9.4 points per game. The Pittsburgh offense doesn’t give you a lot of confidence, especially playing a backup quarterback. I look for the Steelers to run the ball more and not make their backup quarterbacks take chances. I don’t see a lot of points in this game, even at this low number.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 3% play

Cincinnati has gone under in 6 of their 11 games this season but has gone over in three of their 5 games -played on the road. Jacksonville has also gone under in 6 of 11 games. They have gone over in three of their five home games on the season. The Bengals are last in passing yards allowed per attempt at 7.6. I am looking for a big day from Lawrence passing the ball against this defense. This is a different Bengals offense without Burrow, but Browning does have some weapons to throw to and the Jaguars may be without one of their starting cornerbacks, I am going to buck the trend and take the over as I think the Bengals will score enough to put this one over the number,

Play on the over, This is a 3% play.

Both teams come into this game well-rested, This game will come down to the big-play abilities of the Miami Dolphins offense against a Washington defense that allows too many big plays. On the defensive side, Miami has a very good pass rush that should be able to get pressure on Howell and force some bad throws. The Dolphins are 7-4 against the spread this season and the the Commanders are 5-6-1 and as a home underdog are 0-1-1. I am looking for the Dolphins to get enough big plays on both sides of the ball to cover the number.

Play on Miami. This is a 3% play.

Neither side can give you a lot of confidence as the Patriots are just a bad team and the Chargers have been known to give games away this season. I will be taking the better quarterback with better weapons. Herbert is a known commodity with better offensive weapons, while with Zappe you are not sure what you are going to get. The Chargers have scored at least 20 points in eight of their 11 games this year. The Patriots have nothing to play for but a quarterback in the next draft and the best way to ensure you get a good one i by losing. I like the Chargers to cover this one and hold on at the end,

Play on LA  Chargers. This is a 3% play.

New Orleans did not look good last week against the Atlanata Falcons ad they were only able to kick five field goals. The Saints suffered key injuries to their recieving Corps and coould struggle in this game in the passing attack. The Lions did not play  good game against the Packers, turning the ball over three times. Detroit will try to establish their running game against a defense that gave up over 200 yards rushing last week. The Lions defense need to step up as they have not played well the last few weeks.. Detroit has covered the spread in five of its last six road games. I am on the Lions to win and cover in this one.

Play on Detroit. This is a 3% play.

Thursday Night Football features a clash of playoff contenders as the Seattle Seahawks take on the Dallas Cowboys. The Cowboys are at the top of the NFC wildcard standings.  Seattle is two games back of Dallas but does hold the last playoff spot going into this weekend. The Seattle Seahawks are clinging onto their chances to make the playoffs in the NFC. They currently have struggled as of late, having lost three of their last four games. The Seahawks rank 20th in the NFL in scoring at 20.8 points per game. On the defensive side of the ball, they are giving up 22.6 points which ranks 22nd. The Dallas Cowboys are chasing the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.  The Cowboys have won five of their last six, and three in a row. Dallas is the top-scoring team in the league, putting up leads the NFL in scoring with 31.5 points per game. On the defensive end, they are giving up 16.8 points a game which is fourth best. With both teams battling for a wildcard spot, a win in this head-to-head matchup could become very valuable in seeding or even making the playoffs. Dallas has some difficult games coming up against the Eagles, Bills and Dolphins so they can’t afford to let this one slip away. For the Seahawks, Geno Smith has started to struggle and last week's offensive performance was downright awful.  In Smith’s last five games, he has thrown for just 5 touchdowns and has four interceptions. The Cowboys should be able to move the ball through the air as they have the fifth-best passing offense and is going against the 22nd-ranked passing defense. The Seahawks struggled to move the ball against the San Francisco defense and I see them struggling against a formidable Dallas defense. I will side with the better offense, defense, and the team that is more motivated to get the win.

Play on Dallas. This is a 3% play

The Cowboys have a huge advantage through the air as they come into this game with the 5th-rated passing attack and will be facing a pass defense that ranks 22nd. The Cowboys lead the league with 31.5 points a game. The Cowboys have gone over the total in four of their last five games, and have scored 40 or more in three of those games. If the Cowboys do what I expect them to do against the Seattle defense, we will only need a few points from the Seahawks for the over-to-cash.

Play on the OVER. This is a 4% play

NFC North rivals take the field Monday when the Chicago Bears take on the Minnesota Vikings. Both teams are coming off losses but with ATS wins last time out. The Vikings are putting up 23 points and 360.5 total yards per game. Joshua Dobbs has not been bad he took over for an injured Kirk Cousins. Justin Jefferson could return for this game to give the offense a boost. Minnesota’s defense is ranked 14th in the NFL, giving up 20.9 points per game. The Bears let one slip away against the Lions, losing a 12-point lead in the last four minutes. The Bears' defense is giving 26 points per game, which is fourth most in the NFL. On the offensive side, Chicago is putting up 20.9 points and averaging 323.8 total yards a game. The Vikings took the first game between the two, winning by six points as a three-point favorite. The Vikings are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the last five games against the Bears. Dobbs is 2-1 with the Vikings but I don’t think he is that good. I am not a huge Fields supporter but I think he will be the difference in this one.

Play on Chicago. This is a 4% play.

In the last meeting, these two put up just 32 total points. The Under has hit in three of the last five games between the two. Minnesota’s defense has allowed less than 20 points in four of their last six games. The Bears’ offense is the question. They have scored 17 points or less, six times this season. Fields adds a different dimension to the offense in both positive and negative ways. The under is 3-1 in the Bears' last four games and 7-2 in the Vikings' last nine.

Play on the UNDER. This is a 4% play.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers head to Indy to take on the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts, coming off a bye week while the Bucs are coming off a loss to the 49ers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 4-6 record and on the outside of the playoff picture. They are tied with the Falcons and 1 game behind the Saints for the division lead, however. The offense is putting up 19 points per game while the defense allows 20 points per game. The Indianapolis Colts come in with a 5-5 record and are in third place behind the Texans and the Jaguars in the AFC South. They are on a two-game winning streak. The Colts are putting up 24 points per game. The Colt’s defense has allowed 20 points a game this season. The Colts are putting up a 9th-best 24 points per outing while the Buccaneers score 19. The Colts' offense should be able to take advantage of a banged-up Buc’s defense. The Colts will rely on their 9th-ranked rushing attack to set the tone for this game. The Colts are rested and healthy coming into this game. They are just 1-4 at home this season but that plays to our advantage with this line. 

Play on Indianapolis on the money line. This is a 5% play

The Miami Dolphins come into the first-ever Black Friday game with a 7-3 overall record and will have to head north to take on the NY Jets, who come into this game at 4-6 overall. The Jets will have a new face under center as they have benched Zack Wison and will give Tim Boyle a shot. New York has scored just one touchdown total in three games, so he can’t do any worse. The Dolphins are just 1-3 ATS in their last four games overall and couldn’t cover last week against a poor Raiders team. The Jet's defense is better than the Raiders' defense but how long can you continue to stand up when you are always on the field and your offense fails to move the ball time after time? You can’t blame all of the offense's problems on Wilson alone. The line is in shambles ao it has been difficult to run the ball and pass protection is nonexistent. The Dolphins did not look good against the Raisers after the bye week but I don’t think that will happen two weeks in a row, I am not sure Boyle is a huge upgrade, and with no offensive line to speak of, I don’t see a lot of success coming his way. Lay the points with the Dolphins.

Play on  Miami. This is a 3% play.

NFC West rivals meet up on Thanksgiving when first-place San Francisco takes on second-place Seattle. The 49ers are 7-3 this season and have won two in a row. The Seahawks are 6-4 and are coming off a tough loss to the Rams. The 49ers were in a three-game losing before winning their last two by a combined 61-17 score. Their offense is putting up 27.9 points which is fourth in the league. On the defensive side, they rank fifth in the league, allowing only 302.8 total yards per game. The Seahawks are limping into this game having dropped two of their last three games, scoring a combined 48 points. They have averaged 21.6 points per game this season, which ranks 16th in the NFL. On the defensive side, they are giving up 21.8 points and 345.6 total yards per game. The Niners are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings. Last season, San Francisco won by an average of 13 points in those games. Seattle is bagged up right now with their quarterback not being 100%, Kenneth Walker is out for this game and their tackles are banged up. The 49ers are not injury-free as both starting guards are questionable. The 49ers are better on both sides of the ball and with Seattle's injuries I feel they will struggle in this one.

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Philadelphia comes into this game putting up 28 points a game, which ranks  3rd in the NFL. The Eagles have scored 28 or more in three straight games. The offense will be without TE  Dallas Goedert, who is out with a forearm injury, On the defensive side of the ball, they are giving up 21.7 points a game which ranks 17th in the league. The Kansas City offense has not been as explosive in years past, it has been the defense that has stepped up and played better than they have in years. The offense is only putting up 23.1 points which ranks 13th in the league. The offense hasn’t had to be explosive as their defense ranks first in the league in points allowed, giving up just 15 points a game. You could say this is a revenge game for the Eagles but since KS was the better team in the past and the better team now and really don’t view the Eagles as a team looking for revenge. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the best home-field advantages in the league. Philadelphia has been strong on the ground, but Kansas City should be able to cause problems on passing downs with their defensive front The receiving corps has started to come into shape for the Chiefs and I like Mahomes at home in this one.

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The Eagles will look to control the ball on the ground and use long drives to consume the clock and keep Mahomes and the Chief’s offense off the field.  Kansas City's defense is one of the best in the league, giving up fewer than two touchdowns per game on average. Kansas City’s offense hasn’t been explosive this season and in fact, were shutout in the second half against Miami. This is going to be more offense than defense in this one.

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NFC North rivals go to battle when the Bears visit the Lions. Chicago is just 3-7 this season but will have Justin Fileds under center. Detroit is 7-2 and is not only primed for a playoff spot but is looking for the number one seed in the NFC.  On the season, Chicago has given up 324.2 yards and 25.5 points per game. They give up the second-fewest yards on the ground at 76 per game but struggle to rush the passer. The Bears’ offense has struggled this season and has put up 322.8 yards and 20.4 points per game. Over their last three games, they’ve averaged just 15.3 points per game. They should improve with Fields under center. The Lions’ offense is second in the NFL, with 406.4 total yards per game and they are sixth with 26.8 points per game. Detroit’s defense is giving up 310.7 yards per game and 22.6 points per game. The Lions put up 41 points last weekend and have scored over 30 points four times this season. The Bears’ offense is bad Fields adds another dimension with his legs. The Bears have scored 17 or less in six games this year. Last season, these two averaged 56 combined points in two games, with 51 total in their last meeting. With the Fields under center, I feel the Bears can score more than 17 and push this over the number.

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The Miami Dolphins host the Las Vegas Raiders in AFC action. The Raiders are 2-0 under new head coach Antonio Pierce. las Vegas has struggled all season on the offensive side of the ball and are putting up just 17.2 points per game which is 27th in the NFL. They have struggled at the QB position. Josh Jacobs has picked up the running game the last two weeks and they will probably lean on him in this one. On the defensive side. the Raiders are giving up 20.5 points per game. Miami's offense struggled a bit last week but they come into this game putting up 31.7 points per game, which is 1st in the league. They have not reached this number in their last three games but I feel they have a good chance of doing it on this one. On the defensive side, they are giving up 25 points a  game. Miami has the potential yo go over this number themselves or get close to it. They get Archane back which gives them a dynamic one-two punch in the running game against a poor rudhing defense. Jacobs has picked it up and the KC defense allows over 100 yards on the ground per game.  think LA will do enough to help push this one over the number.

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We have a prime-time divisional rivalry in the AFC North as the Cincinnati Bengals take on the Baltimore Ravens. The Bengals started the season at 1-3, but turned it around and won four straight before losing last week. The Bengals' defense has given up 21.3 points per game and the third most yards per game. On the offensive side, they are putting up 26.6 points per game over their last five games and 20.2 per game for the season. The Ravens let one get away last week, falling apart late in a loss to the Browns. Baltimore is putting up 27 points per game, which is fifth in the NFL. On the defensive side, they are giving up just 15.7 points per game, the best in the league. The Ravens took the first game of the season between the two, 27-24. Baltimore is 6-4 SU in the last ten meetings. The Ravens are 6-4 ATS this season but 1-2 ATS in their last three games. The Bengals are 4-4-1 ATS this year, but 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Cincinnati is 2-0 ATS in their last two road games.

This is a divisional game, with the Bengals looking for revenge and to stay in the race for the AFC North and the playoffs. This will play out like their last game and come down to the end. Take the points with the Bengals. 

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The Denver Broncos take on the Buffalo Bills on Monday Night Football.  Denver is just 3-5 this season but has won two in a row. The Bills are 5-4 this season but have been very inconsistent this season.  It has been Denvers' defense that has stepped over the last two games, allowing 13 points per game. During the year, this same defense has allowed 28.3 points per game. Denver’s offense has been very inconsistent this season and has averaged 21.5 points a game in their last two. Another season of high expectations of the Bills but those expectations have taken a hit with three losses in their last five games. They are fifth in the league in total offense and fifth in points scored at 26.7 points per game. The defense is also fifth in points allowed at 17.4 per game. These two offenses have a combined 48.2 points per game this season, but over the last three games that has dropped to 39.3 points over their last three games. The Bills could be without Stephon Diggs, who was limited in practice this week. Allen is nursing a shoulder injury, and Wilson is a shell of his former self. I think the defenses step up in this one and do enough to keep this game under the number.

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These are two top-ten scoring offenses in the NFL with Detroit putting up 25 points a game and the Chargers 25.1 Detroit should be able to exploit a Chargers defense that is giving up the most yards passing in the NFL and Detroit has the 6th best passing offense. Los Angeles has scored at least 27 points in their last two games and Detroit has scored 20+ points in all but one game this season. I am looking for an offensive shootout in LA.

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The LA Chargers are looking to make the playoffs while the Detroit Lions are not only looking at the playoffs but the top seed in the NFC. The Lions lead the NFC North with a 6-2 record, while the Chargers are 500 after winning two straight. Detroit is coming off a bye week. The Lions are ranked 2nd in the NFL in yards per game and 9th in scoring at 25 points per game. On the defensive side, they are 5th in yards against and 5th in points at 20.6.  Los Angeles ranks 15th in total yards and 8th in scoring at 25.1 points per game. On the defensive end, they are giving up 21.8 points which is just outside the top 20 in points allowed. The Chargers have either won or lost by less than three points in all their games played this season except one. Goff doesn't play as well away from home but he started his career in LA and did lead them to a Super Bowl. With Montgomery back in the lineup, the Lions have a dynamic one-two punch in the backfield with Gibbs. Take the Lions in this one.

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The Green Bay Packers head to the Steel City to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Packers snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over the Rams last week. The Packers are putting up 20 points a game on offense and on the defensive end, they are giving up 19.9 points. Pittsburgh is 5-3 and holding the fifth spot in the AFC playoffs and second in the AFC North. Pittsburgh is allowing 20.4 points a game on defense but is scoring just 16.6. Pittsburgh has one of the top defensive units in the league and one of the worst offenses. The Steelers are 1-0 against the spread as a home favorite while Green Bay is 2-2 as a road underdog. Love has not been very good this season and will struggle against the Steelers' defense in this game. The Steelers struggle on offense but should be able to do enough against the Packers' defense to come away with the win.

The battle for the AFC North continues between the Cleveland Browns and the 7-2 Baltimore Ravens. These teams have already met once this season with the Ravens coming away with a convincing 28-3 win. Cleveland is 1-2 in the division and 1-2 on the road. The Browns have won three of their last four. The Browns are 14th in scoring at 22.6 points per game. On the defensive side, they are giving up 17.4 points per game which ranks third. The Ravens are 2-1 in the division and have won four straight. and on the defensive end, they are giving up an NFL-best 13.8 points per game. The Ravens are 6-3 against the spread this season. The Browns and Ravens have two of the best defenses in the league. Jackson has played well over the last few games while Watson has struggled after returning from a shoulder injury. If the  Browns get down early this game could become ugly as the Browns will need to control the ball on the ground as they struggle to move the ball through air.

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The Carolina Panthers take on the Chicago Bears in a battle of seven-loss teams. The Panthers have averaged just 14 points over their last two games. The Panthers are putting up 17.5 points a game this season. On the defensive side, they are giving up 28.3 points a game. The Bears have averaged 15 points in their last two games and 20.9 points a game for the year. On the defensive side, they are giving up 26.9 points a game. The last time these two met, back in 2020, the Bears won 23-16. Both teams will be using rookie QBs who are both coming off of three INT games. This season the under is 5-3 in Carolina’s games and 3-6 in Bears games, though the under has gone 3-1 in Chicago’s last four. Carolina has gone under in two straight. I don't have any faith in any offense or quarterback.

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The Los Angeles Chargers head East to take on the New York Jets on Monday Night Football. The Chargers own a 23-12-1 advantage in their all-time series with the Jets and have won the last four meetings. Los Angeles snapped a two-game losing streak with the win over the Bears last week. The Chargers are 3-4 this season and are second in the AFC West. The Chargers are sixth in passing offense and 22nd in rushing offense. They are 9th in scoring offense with 24.9 points a game. On the defensive side, they are giving up 24 points a game which ranks 24th. The Jets improved to 4-3 on the season after winning three in a row. The Jets are a dismal 31st in passing offense and a little better at 18th in rushing offense. New York is putting up just 18 points a game which ranks 26th. The Jets are allowing 18.4 points a game on defense which is the 8th best in the league. Los Angeles has gone under the number in five of their seven games this season including five straight games. Los Angeles has gone under in two of their three road games this season. New York has gone under in four of their seven games on the year. Three of their four home games have gone under. I can't see a lot of points being scored in this one. 

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The Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals will close out Sunday's NFL action. Buffalo is 5-3 overall and 3-5 ATS. Cincinnati is 4-3 overall and 3-3-1 ATS. The Bills rank fourth in scoring at 27.8 points a game, fourth in passing, and 14th in rushing. On the defensive side of the ball, they rank third in points allowed at 17, 10th in passing yards, and 22nd in rushing yards. Joe Burrow is healthy and Cincinnati has won three straight. The Bengals are just 24th in scoring at 18.7 points a game. They rank 23rd in passing and 29th in rushing yards. I expect them to improve on those numbers with Burrow being healthy. On the defensive side, they give up 20.6 points, ranking 16th. They rank 21 against the pass and 28th against the run.  Allen has thrown a pick in 4 games straight and the Bengals D pulled in 2 last week against the 49ers while the Bengals are averaging 1.5 interceptions a game. Two of the three Bills’ losses were on the road against weaker opponents. This will be the Bills' toughest road test yet. Burrow is healthy and Mixon will be back for this game. The bills are banged up on defense and Allen has a sore shoulder. Take the home team to come out on top.

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The Indianapolis Colts go on the road to take on the Carolina Panthers. The Colts are 3-5 this season and have lost three in a row. On the defensive side, the Colts have the worst-scoring defense, and 23rd in stopping the run. Offensively, they are putting up 25.6 points per game and rank 13th in passing yards and 9th in rushing yards. The Carolina Panthers picked up their first win of the season and are 1-6 this season. Carolina's offense has not been very productive as they are putting up 18.1 points a game. They rank 24th in both passing yards and rushing yards. On the defensive side, they are giving up 28.4 points and rank sixth in passing yards but 29th in rushing yards. Neither team has a defense that can stop anybody. The Panthers’ run D has allowed 4.7 yards per carry, so I’m looking for a big day from Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. Bryce Young is coming off a big game last week but is inconsistent in passing the ball. The Panthers have shown an inability to run the ball. 

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The Los Angeles Rams head for the Frozen Tundra to take on the Green Bay Packers. The Packers have won the last three meetings. The Rams face an uphill battle without quarterback Matthew Stafford as he is likely to miss this game with an injury. Brett Rypien will get the start and he should have Puka Nacua to throw to as he is expected to play. The Rams are putting up 21.9 points per game. Los Angeles has a capable rushing attack and ranks 16th in rushing yards and 15th in yards per carry. On the defensive side of the ball, they are allowing 23.0 points per game. Green Bay has lost four in a row and the bloom has fallen off Jordon Love's rose. The Packers have scored a total of 40 points over their last three games. The defense has allowed 60 points over their last three games but will have to play even better to make up for their offensive woes. With or without Stafford, I see this as being a close game that the Rams could still win outright. The Packers have a lot of issues at the moment, a poor offense, a defense that can't stop the run, and a depleted secondary. The Rams' defense should be able to tee off on Love as the Packers have not been able to run the ball with any consistency. I can't support Jordan Love at this point and even without Stafford I like the Rams as a live dog.

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Monday Night Football kicks off in the Motor City with the Las Vegas Raiders taking on the Detroit Lions. Las Vegas comes in at 3-4 SU overall and 3-3-1 ATS. The Lions are 5-2 overall and 5-2 ATS. The Raiders offense ranks 27th in total yards and scores the third-fewest points in the league at 16 per game. Jimmy Garoppolo will be back under center against the Lions. Las Vegas allows 316.4 yards per game but they allow just the fifth-lowest average passing yards at 186. They rank 22nd in the NFL, allowing 23 points per game. The Lions had won for in a row before getting blown out by Baltimore last week. This season, Detroit’s defense allows 316.9 yards per game, which ranks 11th in the NFL, and 19th in points at 21.6 points per game. On the offensive side, they have the eighth-best scoring offense at 24.9 points per game and fourth in yards at  377. The Raiders have a top-five passing defense on paper but that can be misleading as six of the seven quarterbacks they have faced have been lower than 16th in passing yards. In three starts at Ford Field this season, Goff has thrown eight touchdowns and only one interception. Detroit is 2-1 ATS at home this year and 4-1 ATS in their last five games. The Raiders cannot run the ball and the Lions have the second-best run defense. Garrapolo will struggle against the Lions' defense.

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The Tyson Bagant show gets a second billing on Sunday when the Chicago Bears face off against the Los Angeles Chargers. Both teams have struggled this season with the Bears coming in at 2-5 while Los Angeles is currently 2-4. The Bears come into this game with two wins in a row. On the defensive side, the Bears are giving up 26.9 points a game which ranks 28th. But they have played better in the last couple of weeks. The offense has struggled to score points all season. The Chargers have lost two in a row. While the Chargers have the ability to put up points, their defense is giving up 25.8 points a game. This is a huge spread but it is also Justin Herbert vs. Tyson Bagent. The Chargers have the defensive front that will be able to put pressure on the Division Two quarterback and force them into turnovers.

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The Washington Commanders take on an NFC East rival the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are putting up 26.6 points a game, which ranks 4th. They will be going against a Commanders defense that has allowed 30 or more points in four of the last six weeks. On the defensive side, they are giving up 20.1 points a game. Philadelphia has not allowed more than 20 points in three straight weeks. Washington puts up just 20 points a game and scored just 7 last week against the Giants. On the defensive end of the field, they are giving up 27.1 points a game, and gas given up 30 or more in four of their last six. Howell has shown some signs of being good but is not consistent at it. The Eagles' defensive front should get to Howell and be able to pressure him into mistakes. I don't like a  touchdown on the road in a division game but things look like they lineup for the Eagles.

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The Minnesota Vikings are second in the NFC North and have won two in a row to get to 3-4 this season. They are coming off a huge upset of the San Francisco 49ers. The Green Bay Packers are 2-4 this season and third in the NFC North. The Vikings are 18th in the NFL, scoring 21.6 points a game. They are not a well-balanced offensive team, ranking third in passing yards but 30th in rushing yards. On the defensive end, they are giving up 21.7 points allowed and 351.0 total yards a game. The Packers offense is putting up 21.7 points a game which ranks 17th in the league. On the defensive side, they are 22.0 points a game. Jordan Love is 2-5 as a starting quarterback in his career and their offense is struggling. Green Bay has scored 20 or fewer points in their last four games. Even without Jefferson in the lineup, Minnesota showed that they can still score with Addison stepping up in replace of Jefferson.  

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The Pittsburgh Steelers are 3-2 this season but have had time to rest and figure t out their offense during thier bye week. The Los Angeles Rams come into this game at 3-3 after picking up a win over Arizona. Pittsburgh's offense has been awful this season as they are putting up the third-fewest points per game, and ranking 31st in total yards. On the defensive side, they are giving up the second most yards per game. With Cooper Kupp back in the Rams' offense they have two weapons at the receiver position and with Stafford healthy, the offense is dangerous. The Rams are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and 5-1 ATS in their previous six home contests. The Steelers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six showings on the road. 

I have more faith in the Rams' offense to score points.

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The Baltimore Ravens will host the Detroit Lions in a battle against division-leading teams. The Lions are 5-1 this season while the Ravens are 4-2. The Ravens would like to get their running game going but Detroit is very good at stopping the run. The Ravens have the best pass defense in the NFL which will be put to the test against the Lions offense. David Montgomery is still out for the Lions but they shoould get Jamyr Gibbs back for this game to help in the backfield. Both teams will look to impose thier dill on the other and I am looking for a game that will come down the wire Baltimore is coming back from London. The Lions have lost only once this season, and it was by only six points to the Seahawks. Baltimore has won by only one score in two of their four victories on the year. This will probably be a field goal game either way so I will take the points.

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The Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts in Indy. The big question is will Deshaun Watson play or not. He did not practice Wednesday, as a matter of fact, he has not practiced for two weeks. He is listed as doubtful but could still make the start. The Colts Anthony Richardson is out for the rest of the season, so we will see Gardner Minshew against PJ Walker. The Browns have the league’s best defense, which will cause Minshew problems all day. The Browns were able to put enough offense together and come away with a win over San Fransisco last week and I will ride their defense in this one.

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Two NFC East teams duke it out when the Washington Commanders take on the New York Giants. The Giants are a walking M*A*S*H* unit right now with Daniel Jones listed as questionable status, they also have five offensive linemen listed on the injury. Even if 100% healthy the Giants would struggle against the defensive front of Washington. The Giants have lost four straight games and both of their home games. They are one of the worst offenses in the league this season. They have scored three points in two home games this season. The Commanders have won two of their three road games. Howell should have time to pick apart the Giants' secondary as they are one of the worst teams at getting pressure on the quarterback even though they are one of the most blitzing defenses. I look for the Commanders to make Taylor beat them with his arm and with that banged-up offensive line, I don't think he will be able to get it done.

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The last time these two teams met back in 2021, the Cowboys came away with a 20-17 win. Both teams’ quarterbacks need to step up in this one as they both are coming off games where they struggled. The Chargers have struggled against the pass, as it is giving up 299.8 passing yards per game which is the worst in the league. The 49ers exposed the Dallas rush defense but let's face it the Chargers are not the 49ers. I think Dallas will step up and put pressure on Herbert in the passing game. I look for Dallas to come away with another close win.

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The Philadelphia Eagles will look to remain unbeaten when they take on the New York Jets. The Eagles are 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS this season.  The Eagles are 13th in points allowed and 25th in passing yards allowed. Their defensive front is outstanding and they are first in rushing yards allowed. They rank fifth in points scored, tenth in passing yards, and second in rushing yards. The New York Jets are 2-3 this season but 3-2 ATS. The Jets snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over Denver. The Jets are 24th in scoring at 18.6 points a game. On the defensive side of the ball, the Jets are yielding 21.0 points per game on 206.4 passing yards and 146.2 rushing yards. Since 1987, the Eagles have gone 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS against the Jets. New York is 3-6 ATS in its last nine games overall and 1-4 ATS in its previous five contests against the NFC. The Eagles should be able to control the ball on the ground and I fear for Zach Wilson's safety against the Eagles front line.

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The Detroit Lions go on the road to battle the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Lions are 4-1 this season while the Buccaneers are 3-1. The Lions have won in a row and have covered in four of their five games. The offense is well-balanced as they can move the ball through the air and on the ground. The defense is vastly improved as they rank 17th against the pass and third against the run. The Lions have the 4th best-scoring offense at   29.6 points and the defense is giving up 21.4 points a game. Tampa Bay has been playing well with Baker Mayfield under center. They have started the season 3-1 and are coming off a bye week. They have covered the number in three of their four games. Despite being 3-1 thier offense has underperformed. Their defense has been the key, as they are 16th in pass defense and 10th in rushing defense. They are putting up 21 points and allowing just 17 points a game. The Lions have not lost on the road, beating the Chiefs and Packers. The Lions held the Chiefs and the Packers to only 20 points on the road. Laporte will go and St. Brown is expected back also. The Lions' passing game should be able to move the ball against a subpar pass defense.

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In a battle between the worst two teams in the NFC North the Minnesota Vikings take on the Chicago Bears. The Vikings hold a 65-56-2 overall record against the Bears and have taken the last four meetings. The Vikings like the Beas are 1-4 on the season. The Vikings are 2nd in the league in passing offense but they will be without Justin Jefferson for the next four weeks at least. They need to improve their rushing attack as they are just 29th in the league. This leads them to be 16th in scoring offense. Jordan Addison could have a big game taking over for Jefferson but is dealing with an ankle injury. Offensively the Beras have put together back-to-back high-output games but came away with just one win as their defense continues to be a problem. The Bears are tied for 18th in passing offense and 9th in rushing. They are dealing with multiple injuries to the running back position. They are 12th in the league in scoring offense but 30th in scoring defense. Both teams are 1-4 and arre dealing with injuries to important contributors.  Minnesota is still talented enough on offense without Jefferson to put up points. The Bears looked like the worst team in football over the first four weeks so even though they have been better it is hard to count on them against better teams. Neither team has given you much to hang your hat on but I am still not sold on the Bears rejuvenated offense.

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The over is 3-0 over the last three meetings between these two teams and 4-2 over the last six. The Broncos have gone over in their last four while the Chiefs have gone over in two of their last three. Kansas City is putting up 30.3 points per game over their last three games. Wilson is tied for second in the league with 11 touchdown passes. The Broncos have averaged 26.3 points per game over their last four games. These teams have gone over the number in their last three meetings.  The Chiefs should score in the 30's and Denver will do enough to put this one over the number.

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The Green Bay Packers are 2-2 this season and 3-1 ATS this season. The  Las Vegas Raiders are 1-3 this season straight up and against the spread. Both teams are coming off losses last week. Jimmy Garappolo did not play in last week's game but is ready to go in this one.  I am not sure Raider fans are all that happy about it as he has not been playing well to start the season.  He is averaging two interceptions a game. The Packers have been dealing with a multitude of injuries to key players but it looks like they are getting healthy and could see some of their payers returning.  Jordan Love has not been great but he has been safe. He has 8 touchdowns and three interceptions this season as the Packers are asking him to manage the game and not make mistakes. Both teams have struggled to move the ball on the ground which puts more pressure on their quarterbacks. The Packers have the better team right now. The Raiders have lost three in a row and it is hard to put a lot of faith in the Raiders right now. 

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After losing their opener to Detroit, the Kansas City Chiefs have gotten back to business. Minnesota was supposed to battle for the NFC North title but at this point would settle for their first win of the season. Mahomes has had a great start to the season, with over 1,000 passing yards and 8 touchdowns. The Chief's defense has arguably been playing better than the offense at this point of the season. They rank in the Top 10 in both yards allowed and points allowed. The Vikings are allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, unfortunately, the Chiefs like to pass more than they run and the Vikings' pass defense has been terrible this season. The Vikings are 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten games overall and 0-5 ATS in their previous five outings at home. On the other side, the Chiefs are 4-2 ATS in their last six games overall and 8-1 ATS in their previous nine meetings with the NFC. I am riding Mahomes and the Chiefs in this one.

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The Atlanta Falcons offense hasn't been living up to their promise going into the season. The passing game has struggled with Desmond Ridder under center, which leaves them one-dimensional and allows defenses to key in on Robinson and the running game. The Falcons could find it difficult to move the ball as Houston's defense has been solid against the run.  CJ Stroud has looked really good as a rookie and should be able to find success this week against the Falcon defense. Houston Started the season with two losses but has found their footing and has won two in a row. The Atlanta Falcons are the opposite having lost two straight coming into this game. In a battle of young quarterbacks, Houston has the advantage and I like them to win this game straight up.

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The Carolina Panthers head to the Motor City to take on the Detroit Lions. The Panthers are winless this season at o-4 as they are going through growing pains with Bryce Young at quarterback. The Lions have picked up from where they left off last season and are 3-1 on the season. The Panthers won last year at home 37-23, but that was a different Lions team. Carolina has not fared well on the road, with both losses coming by 10 points or more. With Bryce Young as the quarterback the Panthers have not scored over 20 points and I expect that to be the same today as I look for the Lions defensive front to be in Young's face all day. The Lions are putting up 26.5 points a game and will be facing a defense that allows 25.5 points a game. With Montgomery and Gibbs running the ball effectively, that opens up the passing game for St. Brown and Laporte to operate downfield. Detroit has allowed the fewest rush yards in the NFL, and with Carolina struggling on offense it could be a long day for the Panthers. I don't like laying this many points in the NFL but sometimes you just have to take what's in front of you. lay the points with the Lons.

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