NFL Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
01-21-18 | Vikings -3 v. Eagles | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 58 m | Show |
Minnesota - The best thing to happen for this game is to get the Vikings on the road so the shine is not so bright in Minneapolis where the Miracle happened last week. The Minnesota Vikings registered a thrilling 29-24 home win over the Saints in their path to their first NFC Championship game since 2009 and look to win this game and return to their home field for the Super Bowl. This game may be made up of 80% defense for the game. Minnesota finished with the number one total defense in the NFL the season, holding opponents to an average of 15.8 points. Minnesota scored an average of 24 points in the regular season, placing them 10th in the NFL but they will have difficulty getting to that number but can put up enough to win 21-17 or 14-10, 17-10 or 17-13. This game will be played on either side of midfield with few chances in the red zone. Minnesota had little problem containing the Saints strong running game and that should transfer to holding LeGarrette Blount and Jay Ajayi under 85 yards in total. Defensive end Everson Griffen was tied for fourth in the league with a career-best 13 sacks this season. Philadelphia hasn't hosted an NFC Championship Game since the 2004 season and with a 14 year drought, their fan base can be absolutely brutal adding a ton of pressure to their own team. Case Keenum is a good quarterback and has all the tools to win this game by playing a smart game and putting this victory in the hands of the defense as the Purple People Eaters did years gone bye. |
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01-21-18 | Jaguars v. Patriots -7 | 20-24 | Loss | -118 | 19 h 22 m | Show | |
-New England - We know that Tom Brady cut his hand on a helmet during practice requiring 3 stitches. The cut is in the web between his thumb and index finger. He will wear two gloves on that right hand. The outer one so no one will be able to see if it starts bleeding again. Brady will do more from the shotgun than usual as the center's snap takes a toll. As for the Jags there are some reason and history on what teams can accomplish. First of all, the public has lowered the number for us giving tremendous value. Secondly, they have traveled to San Francisco, Tennessee, Pittsburgh and now to New England resulting in four games of their last five on the road with a poor performance game at home against Buffalo sandwiched in between. Third, teams that score over 40 points their previous game are 5-25 ATS the following week and they put up 45 last week. It's believed that with the disrespect that Pittsburgh showed them last week, there heart, focus and their super bowl may have all been spent winning that game and left on the gridiron. How much can one have in their tank after last week and this being a long five weeks of effort trying to prove themselves over and over is a major issue. The evidence may be in last week's passing yards allowed at 469 yards to the Steelers. The Patriots defense has allowed just 15.1 points per game since week three. Dion Lewis is up against an average rush defense as the Jags are ranked 21st. The Patriots limited Derrick Henry to an average of only 2.3 yards per carry last week and are confident they can contain Leonard Fournette leaving Blake Bortles holding the game in his hand trying to figure out what to do against what Coach Belichick has already figured out. New England averaged 28.6 points this season, good for second in the NFL and will put on a show on both sides of the ball and a major show of coaching from the sidelines and any second half adjustments needed. |
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01-14-18 | Saints v. Vikings -4 | 24-29 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show | |
-Minnesota - The most complete team in the NFL is the Minnesota Vikings. As a footnote only, Minnesota defeated the Saints by a 29-19 score in week one. The Saints defense did allow 414 total yards to Carolina last week. Between losing their final game to Tampa Bay and their game last week, traveling to play the "best team" in the NFC is a daunting task. Many people note a negative when discussing QB Case Keemun. The 29-year old QB had by far the best season of his career, notching 3547 passing yards with a 22:7 TD to INT ratio. Keenum threw 10 passing TD’s in his last six games of the season. What really should be noticed is in his last five weeks, Keenum was under total scrutiny within his own team with two quarterbacks healthy enough to start at the first sign of an underperformed game. Coach Zimmer was equally as pleased. The Vikings running game is designed to eat up the clock and to get their defense on the field. The Minnesota running game played a key role in their offensive success, finishing with the seventh-ranked running game in the NFL. Latavius Murray had a strong season, recording 842 rushing yards, while Jerick McKinnon was able to rush for 570 yards. Defense is King in the playoffs. The Vikings defense had a spectacular season as they rank near the top of the NFL in several defensive categories including the second-ranked rush and pass defense. They only allowed a combined 17 points in their final three games, and are holding opponents to an NFL-best 15 points per game. More importantly, let this sink in. The Vikings defense puts offenses in many third down situations. After 16 games, they have an incredible league best of holding opponents to just 25% on third down conversions. That's three and out 75% of the time. It's very hard to score needing a perfect extended drive of 60 and 70 yards when every third down has to be successful.
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01-14-18 | Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers | Top | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
Jacksonville + Great defenses usually stay great in the playoffs. No teams defense is as fast as the Jags.Their quickness wreaks havoc in the opponents backfield. Their quickness should be noted in their earlier win in Pittsburgh. Additionally, Leonard Fournette rushed for 181 yards for Jacksonville in that game. Don't worry about the lack of scoring last week against Buffalo. Jacksonville is averaging 26.1 points per game, ranking them fifth in the NFL so they know how to get points. The question should be: what game plan for the opposition will work to get the ball into the end zone for Pittsburgh? And with a swarming pass rush forcing poor throws, another problem pops up. They have now notched 23 interceptions on the season. Their number one ranked pass defense is limiting opponents to an average of 169 passing yards per game, and they should be able to contain Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. Jacksonville features the top-ranked running game in the NFL. Combine the common characteristics for playoff teams with a top rushing attack and the top defense, the points look like too much as the blowouts are scarce at this level of playoff games and this Jacksonville has the rush to combine defensively to win this game. |
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01-13-18 | Titans +14 v. Patriots | 14-35 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 11 m | Show | |
Tennessee + Desperation effort is hard to measure. It's often overlooked or ignored. Tennessee won their last game of the season against Jacksonville and then rallied from down 21-3 and defeated Kansas City on the road. It certainly shows heart and great fundamentals. Truth be known, those two wins were equal to two playoff wins. As far as New England is concerned, the Patriots have been dealing with controversial questions all week as the Titans just prepare. The New England defense is spending the week preparing for mobile quarterback Marcus Mariota, a third-year pro who can make things happen with his legs. Mariota is also sixth in the NFL (Brady was first) in third-down passer rating. Defense and a strong running game wins playoffs games. The Titans have both. Titans’ leading rusher Derrick Henry played a key role in the win against the Chiefs, accumulating a season-high 156 rushing yards and averaged a dazzling 6.8 yards per carry. Look for Henry to see a heavy workload again this week. Remember that we are looking for a pointspread cover and line value. Not necessarily looking for an outright win of which is possible. Brady and the Patriots are very good but not that great team from the past as injuries have had their tow and Brady is 40 years old. Delanie Walker also had a big game last week, making six catches for 74 yards. Walker will be one to watch in this one as the Patriots do have a weak pass defense. This is a large spread and confident the Titans can do enough on both sides of the ball to keep this one close. The Titans defense showed great character by shutting the Chiefs out in the second half last week. Tennessee features a stifling rush defense that is only allowing 188 rushing yards per game. After 17 games of the regular season the numbers speak loud and clear. This is a pass oriented league and the Patriots pass defense is allowing an average of 251 passing yards per game, ranking them 30th in the NFL. Bottom line is that a stout defense, a strong rush, a mobile quarterback and a porous opponents defense is the recipe for the upset. |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles +3 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
-Philadelphia + It seems that this may be an all time first finding the #6 seed is favored on the road against the top seed. Philadelphia became the first No. 1 seed to open as an underdog in the playoffs ever. Let's start at the top. Eagles coach Doug Pederson is incredible and don't discount his value on this two week layoff to implement a solid game plan. The only reason that Atlanta is favored (wrong team favored) is perception. The drop off from Carson Wentz to Nick Foles is not worth six points. Foles not only can get the ball downfield, he can do so very well. He's aggressive in his mindset and plays as such. He's looking to throw the ball down the field. Some guys are the dink-and-dunk kind of guys. That's not Nick. Nick Foles is aggressive and will not disappoint Eagle fans. The Falcons began this week with their two stars (QB Ryan and WR Jones) both missing practice. This follows a cross country trip from Los Angeles and a shorten week having to play Saturday. Ryan is 1-3 all-time against the Eagles in Philadelphia. This is the Falcons fourth trip in five weeks and a southern dome team moving north to play outdoors in the cold. Watch the Eagles go for the running game. They feature a dangerous duo of Jay Ajayi and LeGarrette Blount who combined for 1639 rushing yards. The Eagles own the number three ranked running game in the NFL. If Foles can hand the ball off, his amount of play is marginal at best. The Eagles are scoring an average of 28.6 points, good for third in the NFL. The Eagles defense had a spectacular season, and they feature the number one rush defense in the NFL. Philadelphia is allowing an average of 18 points, ranking them fourth in the NFL. |
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01-07-18 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 26-31 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
New Orleans - The axiom that it's difficult to defeat the same team a third time in the same season is not true. The last 20 occasions, the team going for the 3-0 season sweep is 13-7. For Carolina, this is problematic having this third game being played in New Orleans. The Saints defeated the Panthers by a 34-13 score in the first meeting this season, and also took the second matchup by a 31-21 score. The Saints really took it to the Panthers this season and expect nothing different today. Cam Newton is throwing the ball under 200 total yards in too many games and that won't work against a high scoring team. They will go into this game looking to run the ball, eat up the clock, keep Drew Brees on the sidelines and strong defense. However, the Carolina defense could not handle them in their two meetings this season. Additionally, if there's a team that can run the ball and eat up the clock it's the Saints. The Saints running game tallied a total of 297 rushing yards in their two wins against the Panthers. The Saints defense had a strong season, and they were able to sack Newton six times this season. Overall, the Saints have an answer to anything the Panthers attempt on both sides of the ball. Cam Newton was inconsistent this season, and he threw two TD’s against three INT’s against the Saints this season. Look for the Superdome to be rocking as the Saints come marching in with a third win
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8 | 3-10 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 16 m | Show | |
Jacksonville - Congratulations on the Buffalo Bills ending the longest drought in the NFL by finally making it to the playoffs for the first time since 1999. But it will be short lived. Bills’ leading rusher LeSean McCoy is currently questionable for this one with an ankle injury. The Bills have no playoff experience. And they're up against the fastest defense in the league. If he does not suit up, it will put added pressure on the Bills weak passing game. The Bills rely heavily on their running game to generate their offense because they own the 31st ranked passing game. Overall their rush defense was a problem this season and they will be tested heavily by the Jaguars Leonard Fournette. The actual season ending numbers for the Jags defense are superior to the league. They feature an outstanding secondary and they rank second in the NFL with 21 interceptions, led by A.J. Bouye with six. They are also second in the NFL with 55 sacks. Jacksonville is holding opponents to only 16.8 points per game, good for second in the NFL. Even is LeSean McCoy plays, his playing below 100% combined with an average quarterback in Tyrod Taylor, is not conducive to a win on the road. They will be more than fortunate to score 17 points.
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -8 | Top | 22-21 | Loss | -112 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
Kansas City - This sould be a great battle. The Titans defeated Jacksonville in a must win game 15-10 last week to finish as the fifth seed with a 9-7 record. The Chiefs edged the Broncos 27-24 in their final regular season game and won the AFC West with a 10-6 record. Playing in Arrowhead Stadium is not an easy place to win a game for a visiting team. Marcus Mariota had an off performance season with a 13:15 TD to INT ratio along with 312 rushing yards. He seems to have had leg injuries all season. He also lost DrMarco Murray. Murray sat out last week with a knee injury and he is questionable for this contest. Playoff games are won by running the ball and a sound defense. Their big targeted tight end has disappeared the last three games with under 85 total yards. For the Chiefs, Rookie Kareem Hunt played a big role in the Chiefs offensive success this season. He has to be Coach Reid's first choice to win this game. When he rushes for 100+ yards, KC wins. Reid understands that and it's importance in the playoffs. Alex Smith had a great season and Chiefs’ leading receiver Tyreek Hill had a tremendous second season in the NFL, notching 1183 receiving yards with seven touchdowns. On defense, the Chiefs feature two talented cornerbacks in Terrance Mitchell and Marcus Peters. The duo combined for 26 pass deflections and nine interceptions. The Titans have a decent rush defense so look for Smith to use the short passes to set up Kareem Hunt running the ball. The Chiefs offense has the ability to do damage in the air and on the ground, and they rank in the top 10 in the NFL in most offensive categories. They are averaging 25.9 points, good for sixth in the NFL. As far as momentum, Kansas City heads into this one riding a four-game winning streak.
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12-31-17 | Chiefs v. Broncos -4 | 27-24 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 52 m | Show | |
Denver - The Chiefs rest at least a few starters which could make it tough for them on both sides of the ball. Don't look for KC quarterback Alex Smith. He's on the scout team this week. First-round draft pick Patrick Mahomes II will make his NFL debut at quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs. It makes sense for starting quarterback Alex Smith and many of the other regulars to get a week off before the playoffs. Denver can still play defense. Especially against their backup players. The Broncos do own the third-ranked rush defense and fourth-ranked pass defense in the NFL, so they can contain the Chiefs offense. Furthermore, Broncos running back C.J. Anderson has rushed for a combined 266 yards in his last two games, and the Chiefs will give up yards on the ground, allowing an average of 119 rushing yards per game. The Broncos had a solid game on the ground in their week eight battle against the Chiefs. The Broncos will start Paxton Lynch at quarterback since he's finally healthy. They want him with all the tools he needs to see how he plays in this final game. Defensively, the Chiefs’ backup defensive backs will be no match for the Broncos’ receivers. |
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12-31-17 | Jaguars v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Tennessee - Look no further than the stakes at hand. Certainly the Jaguars could win at will being they are in the top two in offense and defense. No questioning that. This is a follow the "real" money. It comes down to this. The Jags get a free roll. If they win; number 3 seed and play at home. If they lose; number 3 seed and play at home. So it comes down to whom they choose to play. The choices are to play Tennessee by losing Sunday or play the Chargers by winning on Sunday. Nobody wants to play Philip Rivers. No one wants to have to chase down Melvin Gordon. Why play that when Marcus Mariota is playing hurt? Or DeMarco Murray is hurt? Neither will be at back to full strength in a week for the wild card game. So the Jags have the opportunity to avoid the Chargers and play the Titans in Jacksonville in the wild card game. They plan to play their starters for 20 snaps for their game day workout. This is a very situational selection and really has little to do with the play on the field. Remember, the NFL is a nasty business so look for the Titans to win. |
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12-25-17 | Steelers v. Texans +9.5 | Top | 34-6 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
Houston First of all, this is is a rather tough spread to lay due to Pittsburgh consistently being in close road games. Houston getting double digits is a lot of points and now that the Playoffs are set, the Steelers are not looking for blood after a tough loss but rather a generic game in which to get in and get out. (Think Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit and Cincinnati, no blowouts here on the road). Antonio Brown is very doubtful to play and the Steelers don't need anyone else getting hurt. Additionally, there are still some defensive players of Houston that can snap you to the sidelines. Last week the Patriots let the air out of Pittsburgh balloon and there's no way that playing or preparing for Houston can get the Steelers pumped back up. It's not happening. Pittsburgh has given up 27 or more points in three of their last four games. Their latest impressive win was a 40-17 thumping over Tennessee on November 16th. That's over a month ago. It's very difficult to give double digits to any team playing at home in the NFL. The Steelers will be exchanging Christmas presents with each other at halftime and looking to get back home for their kids Christmas later that night. Take the points. |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show | |
San Francisco + The current longest winning streak in the NFL stands at three games. The 49ers have won three in a row and four of their last five. San Francisco is looking at the new era of no more interest in a Kirk Cousins $100M contract and a franchise quarterback with Jimmy Garoppolo. He was groomed by the best, Tom Brady. The headlines belong to the 49ers field goal kicker. Robbie Gould is responsible for 52% of their team's total points. He was six for six last week and 36 for 38 on the season. San Francisco has defensive talent to stay in most games. Naturally, they would like more scoring in the red zone and that will certainly come. This game sets up to be a classic score for score battle. It's doubtful that either team will ever get anything more than a single digit lead. Last to score should win this game. Look for s 21-20 final. Frightening contest for gamblers but with San Francisco having two ways to win. I predict outright! |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Tennessee + The past four of five weeks, the Rams played the Vikings, Saints, Eagles and Seahawks. They have to feel the pain of those hits. These are all top rated defensive teams and it starts to take it's toll by the end of the season. Now they get to travel 2500 miles east to play in an early start game and lay 6.5 points. Few teams can survive that stretch of hard hitting contest. Tennessee does play well at home as evidenced by their 5-1 home record. It's not like the Rams "have to win" this game. L.A. is in great shape in the playoff picture, holding a two game lead over the Seahawks and can clinch the division title with one more win, or one more Seahawks loss. Not only have they played difficult defensive teams they've played at the highest level offensively. The Rams have scored 32 or more points in three straight games and don't expect that to continue. The Titans will put on their best performance of the season today and this will come down to who scores last. |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs +7 | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 17 h 48 m | Show |
Tampa Bay Having the oddsmakers install Atlanta at -6.5, that just under a touchdown mentality, should be your "Red Flag". Atlanta played New Orleans last week and play them on the road off a short week, this coming Sunday. This is most definitely Tampa Bay's Super Bowl. A home game against a division rival with a chance to knock the Falcons off their nest. Falcons’ wide receiver Julio Jones has endured an inconsistent 2017 campaign, and the same can be said for the team as a whole. These two NFC South rivals just faced each other a few weeks ago on Nov. 26, when Atlanta benefited from home-field advantage and funny things happen when playing the same team this close together. Look for the Buccaneers to free wheel it and play without any pressure. The OC should let the offense air out the football tonight. |
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12-17-17 | Cowboys v. Raiders +3 | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 18 h 11 m | Show | |
Oakland + The Raiders’ inability to run the ball this season has been putting a lot of pressure on quarterback Derek Carr. But look for the Raiders game plan to switch gears to help out. Lynch got only seven carries in last weekend’s 26-15 setback against AFC West rival Kansas City. Expect more rushing attempts to ease the pain. Dallas is coming off consecutive hard fought division game victories over Washington and the Giants. Those expended a lot of energy. At 7-6, the Cowboys hardly scare anyone, especially on the road. Dallas has little in terms of running the ball which puts a load on Dak Prescott. The Cowboys are just an average team unsure what their playoff hopes are at this moment. The Cowboys have had 4 to 5 key players sit out almost on a weekly basis so they generally have new issues to deal with regularly. This is Zek Elliott's last game to sit. Amari Cooper is out for Oakland so his replacement has gotten all the practice this week which certainly helps. It’s going to mean that Cordarrelle Patterson and Johnny Holton are going to be asked to carry a much heavier workload and also beat the Cowboys secondary over the top. Laying points on the road is not easy. This spread really is unjustified as these two teams are basically equal due to each teams set of circumstances at present. If they are equal, then the Raiders should be a three point favorite. This is a oddsmakers over-lay based on Dallas winning two in a row and the Raiders huge loss at Kansas City. The Raiders can move to 7-7 and in second place with a win. Michael Crabtree is going to be the “move the chains guy,” as is Jared Cook, so realistically the biggest changes to expect will be for Carr to take more chances on deep passes in 1-on-1 situations. The key is In games when Carr has averaged over eight yards per attempt, they’ve posted a record of 5-0. The offense has to find a way to open up the field if they want to beat the Cowboys. GO DEEEEEEP! |
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12-17-17 | Patriots v. Steelers +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Pittsburg + The Steelers have lost four straight games to the Patriots. But streaks are made to end. Even if this end comes with an asterisk by it. Note that the Patriots are a bandaged squad. That their continuity has been interrupted over and over. That this is their fifth road game in six weeks late in the year where few are fresh. Maybe Roger Goddell made their schedule. For Big Ben; after his five interception performance, he's been fantastic. His offensive line has also been beyond great. Ben threw it 60 times last week and a good Baltimore defense only sacked him twice. Pittsburgh may not have a better chance to stop the Patriots from owning them in these huge meaningful games more than what's at stake for them Sunday and throughout the upcoming playoffs. Last week at Miami, New England was an unbelievably bad 0-for-11 on third downs as its offense an anemic 248 total yards; 223 through the air and a hopeless 25 on the ground. The Patriots ran the ball a mere 10 times, five by Dion Lewis and five for Rex Burkhead. The Patriots normally comeback from that occasional off night and bounce back. But Brady looks off at times with misplaced throws and interceptions that are cropping up more of late against Buffalo and Miami. The Steelers are even better defensively so at 40 years old, maybe Tom Brady is running out of bounce back performances. The facts are, and must be acknowledged, that the Patriots are not playing well right now and probably need some rest and a homestretch before the playoffs. On the other hand, the Steelers extended their winning streak to eight games when they survived a thriller against Baltimore and look to get this monkey off their back with a team vendetta to win this game. This is the game everyone’s been waiting to see, and the hot team playing at home AND getting points is the correct play. Look for Pittsburgh to come up big and make Sunday's game look easy. |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +1 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
Kansas City Chiefs The biggest question of the day is split: What has more intrigue? The home team advantage for Kansas City playing at one of the most revered venues in the NFL known as Arrowhead Stadium? Or why are the LA Chargers a one point favorite on the road at Arrowhead? Both are a mystery except to the sharpest of bettors. A special Saturday night AFC matchup for the top of the heap has all the makeup of a Chiefs win. Maybe the Chiefs should just play the game film from earlier this year where they won in LA by a score of 24-10. When the Chiefs were thought to be the Super Bowl lock at 5-0, they had Kareem Hunt running the ball which in turn set up the easy pass plays for Alex Smith. They have headed back to that game plan. He rushed for 117 yards last week which was a throwback to the first one third of the season played. He rushed for 172 yards in their first meeting. After 13 games this season, the Chargers checks in at #29 against the run. Bingo!!! Running the ball and a strong defense is the mark of a division leader. Unfortunately, defense has the Chiefs at #15 in points allowed at 22 ppg so an exceptional effort and taking advantage of their difficult home field and fans is paramount to this win. The Chiefs have the perfect formula to defeat the Chargers. Rushing the ball. Ball control. Keeping Philip Rivers on the sidelines. The Chiefs early season game plans are back. Kansas City is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. the AFC West. This should continue tonight. The Chargers are just 2-6 the last eight games in this series because of the same coaching strategies by Coach Andy Reid. The line should move from KC +1 to pick to KC -1. |
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12-14-17 | Broncos v. Colts +3 | 25-13 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 32 m | Show | |
Indianapolis |
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12-11-17 | Patriots v. Dolphins +12 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
Miami The New Patriots won the first matchup rather decisively with a final score of 35-17. For tonight, both teams look rather different today when compared to their game in late November. These changes that could very well make the contest closer than the one played in Foxboro. QB Jay Cutler is back and expected to give Miami's offense a much-needed spark. For New England, Rob Gronkowski is suspended, Julian Edelman is out for the season, Chris Hogan has been injured and may be questionable but most likely could play but not effectively. Brandi Cooks is Brady's top receiver and will be targeted by both Brady and the Dolphins secondary. There will be safety help on every deep route. Cooks will not see single coverage all evening. Brady will have to look elsewhere. The Dolphins aren't even particularly susceptible to big plays anyway. They have allowed only three passing plays of 40 or more yards this season. The Patriots want to get in and get out without any injuries to Brady or any more starters. They don't have to do anything too fancy. They don't have to risk further injury to banged up players. The Pats had already declared RT Cannon and LB Van Noy as out for Monday night’s game. The team subsequently downgraded three players from “questionable” to “out” on Sunday and DL Flowers, RB Gillislee and ST King will no longer be expected to play. Brady will use Danny Amendola for short passes in basically a game played like a Friday afternoon "walk thru" game. Brady will just stand and not risk out of the pocket movement. After all, next Sunday they play Pittsburgh Steelers on the road for huge playoff home team advantage. Speaking of travel, the Pat's traveled to Denver, to Mexico City for the Raiders, at Buffalo and now Miami. That's four away games in five weeks with a trip to Pittsburgh coming up on a short week. Tired 40 year old Tom Brady did not have one of his best efforts last week against Buffalo. He completed 21 for 30 for 258 yards, but did not throw a touchdown pass and had a pick. Taking double digits in the NFL usually gives the bettors positive results. Betting against the Pat's is a losing proposition normally (8-4 ats) but this is one game that even Patriots lovers have to be worried. Miami RB Kenyan Drake will be the Dolphins clock chewing workhorse. This is a place that New England knows will be troublesome playing in Miami tonight. The Dolphins could win this game outright.
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12-10-17 | Seahawks v. Jaguars -2.5 | Top | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show |
Jacksonville - Before we get into this game, let's acknowledge that Russell Wilson is a top 3-5 ranked quarterback. He's their entire offense. The has thrown three touchdown games multiple times this season. His total rushing yardage is twice at much as their second best running back. Of 31 teams he may face, he is almost untouchable at any given time. But there is one defense he will have a problem with. The quickest, fastest defense in the entire NFL; Jacksonville's defensive front. No team has a faster step off the snap. He won't be able to win this game by himself but his offensive line is very porous and the Jags will be in his face all day long. The Seahawks have not been able to establish their running game this season and it will not happen today. Blake Bortles had a good game last week. He connected on 26 of 35 passes for 309 yards with two touchdowns against zero picks. Jag’s leading rusher Leonard Fournette needs to step it up somewhat. Since he returned the past two weeks he has not been very productive. But he is a great running back so defenses may have been keying on him. The Jags are extremely balanced with Bortles, Fournette and WR Marquise Lee. Jacksonville owns the number one ranked defense in the NFL and that will put the Jags over the top in games such as this. Seattle is down defensively in their secondary due to injuries. Let's not forget that their win against the Eagles was huge but played in Seattle. Not having Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor and Cliff Avril and with the Seahawks traveling across country to play is huge for the Jags. This game will play smoothly in favor off Jacksonville. |
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12-10-17 | Packers v. Browns +3.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
Cleveland + The Browns are running out of teams left on their schedule to beat. The Browns remain the only winless team on the season at 0-12. They do NOT want to go winless for the season. They get the Packers without Aaron Rodgers. Heading into the game against Tampa Bay last week, Green Bay has lost five of their previous six. The Packers running back, Aaron Jones may be limited with a knee injury today. They beat the Bucs in OT but not because of their quarterback play. Quarterback Brett Hundley had just 84 passing yards on 13-of-22 passing with no touchdowns and a pick. For Cleveland, they've held four teams to under 20 points in their last eight games. They have an adequate defense to win this game at home. One would have to think that DeShone Kiser has improved somewhat. Maybe the return of Josh "Flash" Gordon will give him a better target now that he's had two weeks back to get player ready. Lastly, can you imagine the incredible pressure the Green Bay Packers QB Hundley is under knowing he cannot lose today with Aaron Rodger back next week? Not a good spot for him. |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons -1.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show | |
Atlanta The age old question is does the run set up the pass or is it pass when you have no running game? For years, Drew Brees had to throw and teams just keyed on that. Well now he has the number 3 rushing attack so throwing the ball doesn't have to be his first choice. But, Saints RB Mark Ingram has been nursing a toe injury on this very short week so maybe that could be a developing factor as the game plays out. To counter that, the Falcons will have to get in tune to their normal late season play of having their performances peak. It starts with Julio Jones. He is at full speed. The Falcons had averaged 27 ppg in their last three wins but are coming off a loss to the Vikings last week. They must have been discombobulated having Desmond Trufant out as part of the NFL’s concussion protocol. The Saints defense is a mild comparison to what the Falcons faced last week against Minnesota. Defensively for the Falcons, they like to rotate sides with their cornerbacks, so Trufant will likely spend half of Thursday’s showdown covering Michael Thomas and half covering Ted Ginn. After all the bangs, bumps and bruises, Atlanta is eighth in the NFL in total defense and sixth in passing defense. The Saints have a two game lead so that really forces Matt Ryan to open up the offense. I think that's exactly what will happen. Every one is ready and even tho the play calling is different than a year ago, the Falcons swept the Saints last year, winning 45-32 in New Orleans and 38-32 at home. They also play again in three weeks. Just because the Saints have been on fire doesn't mean they cover on the road in a divisional game on a short week. The Saints’ defensive backfield especially could have benefitted from some extra downtime. Sensational rookie cornerback Marshon Lattimore has missed the past two weeks with an ankle injury. Safety Marcus Williams also did not play on Sunday due to a groin injury. If Ingram's toe is painful enough to alter his pounding running style, things can steadily go the way of Atlanta. A reminder that the Falcons have held four teams under 100 rushing yards and are 4-0 in those games. The sense of desperation over postseason possibilities slipping away will spur the Falcons to defend their NFC flag. It's up to Matt Ryan and his ability and the OC having him go deep and open up the entire field. When he’s thrown for at least 250 yards, the Falcons are 5-1. Getting 250+ yards tonight is very doable against the Saints defense. Watch the pride of defending last year NFC Championship have them playing at a very high level and getting the wi |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals +6 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 16 h 51 m | Show |
Cincinnati Tonight we get to see Pittsburgh in their most consistent element. That is playing down to their competition on the road. Both teams are coming in after winning last week. Cincinnati has to stop the Steelers passing attack and then put a shadow on Le'Veon Bell. Cincinnati pass defense has been very strong and will look to slow Antonio Brown who has underperformed in most of his 15 meetings against the Bengals. Cincinnati ranks fifth in the NFL in pass defense, only allowing 203.8 yards a game and resulting in allowing just 19 points per game. One usually doesn't have to get jacked up, ready and focused on a division game. But consider this. As mentioned, the Steelers know how to keep a road game close. Joe Mixon is finally coming into his own. A win by the Bengals will certainly help with the deserving backlash that Marvin Lewis is receiving and going through. Even Andy Dalton has a chance to make a statement tonight in front of a national audience. Another factor is that the Steelers secondary can look incredibly great and then get hit with a 45 yard pass play. That will certainly be in the Bengals game plan. ( That should be their first play of the game. Dalton to AJ Green deep). In the weak AFC playoff races, getting to 6-6 with a win is huge. The Bengals have basically one problem and it's important. Their QB has thrown for 201 of 324 passing for 2,372 yards with 18 touchdowns. Their running game is strong. Their defense is a strong top 10 group. But their offensive line has allowed Dalton to get sacked 27 times. So this game, as are most, is needed to have them play at their highest level. That's usually a mental thing if not injury based. Finally, this is a game that is more than a pointspread cover. The Bengals have a team to beat this division rival at home jacked up, somewhat desperate and on prime time TV. Yes they could lose but Pittsburgh still still has some bad habits that can be exploited. |
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12-03-17 | Rams v. Cardinals +7.5 | 32-16 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 10 m | Show | |
Arizona + The Rams and the Cardinals are both coming off a victory last week with the Rams ending New Orleans’ long winning streak and Arizona knocking off upstart Jacksonville. Most are familiar with the Rams high-scoring offense led by Jarad Goff and it has been a constant. They did struggle last week on third down over and over and that was with New Orleans have both cornerbacks out. For Arizona, Quarterback Blaine Gabbert was more than serviceable last week against a good Jacksonville defense completing 22-of-38 passes for 241 yards, two scores, and a pick. He was only sacked once for five yards. The entire team is playing with a lot of heart and can beat any team on any given day. Placekicker Phil Dawson was the hero at the beginning and the end of the game last week hitting three field goals of 42 or more yards and with the game winner of 52 yards. His success allows the Cardinals to chip away all throughout the game as a field goal is another weapon for the Cards. Gabbert has Jaron Brown and Ricky Seals-Jones as his receivers and may rely on them much more today due to the lack of running back injuries. This looks to be anyone's game but with home field advantage and getting a touchdown in points, maybe Phil Dawson will get another chance to win it for Arizona. |
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12-03-17 | Panthers +5.5 v. Saints | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Carolina + Revenge in a division game within the same season is something to consider. Especially after judging how the two teams are playing right now. The Panthers recorded a 35-27 road win against the Jets last week, and the Saints are coming off a rough 26-13 road loss to the Rams. The Saints recorded a 34-13 road win over the Panthers in week three. That road win was when the Panthers may have overlooked the Saints and their 0-2 start. They were playing with that desperation of having almost no shot of making the playoffs if they lost and went to 0-3. Things are much different today. Both teams are 8-2. The oddsmakers jacked up the line because New Orleans is coming home off a loss and bettors think it's impossible to lose back to back games so they lay the points. But this line is highly inflated over two "key" numbers of 3 and 4. This has a three or four point final score that either team could get. This is not a blowout type of division game by either side. It's a close to the vest kind of game with two equal quarterbacks with the Saints having home field advantage but being offset by Carolina's defense. Both teams are running the ball like there's no tomorrow. This line should have been -3 Saints at the most. For Carolina, Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Stewart will keep Drew Brees on the sidelines eating up at least one extra Saints possession. Carolina has pulled off four straight wins and are now tied for first place with the Saints in the NFC South due to their defense and averaging 140 yards rushing the ball during that span. That is the recipe for a top ranked team. Their defense is very good at stopping the run and few would admit that they knew that the Saints now features the third-ranked running game in the NFL. It's doubtful that they would be ranked this high if they had played teams like the Panthers weekly. They have been known as a passing team for years. The Saints defense has been shaky defensively in two straight games against Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff last week in their loss to the Rams. Cam Newton hasn't been real sharp but that may change today as the Saints top two corners, Marshon Lattimore and Ken Crawley, are questionable for this game. This game is a showdown; not a shootout. In almost every facet for this game, I give every necessary edges to Carolina. Especially getting this many points. |
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11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys +2 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 19 m | Show | |
Dallas + |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens -7.5 | 16-23 | Loss | -109 | 9 h 48 m | Show | |
Baltimore Let's hope Baltimore's success off a bye week continues. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are now 8-2 coming off a bye. The Ravens have the easiest schedule remaining for teams that are still relevant to the playoffs. They are also playing incredible defense having three shutouts thru 10 games. The last time they did that, they won the Super Bowl. Defensively, they rank 6th in total yards per game (306ypg) and second in passing yards allowed (185.2ypg). The Texans, who are injury-riddled at running back, won’t be able to run the ball on the Ravens. Baltimore should be well rested and free of injuries as well as stoked about their current playoff position combined with who they play in December. Tom Savage doesn't have the weapons or the experience to go up against the Ravens defense. D’onta Foreman, the big back from Texas, blew out his Achilles after scoring two touchdowns last week and is now out for the year. On defense, the Texans are without their star power and are currently allowing 344.8 total yards and 92 rushing yards. Watch the havoc created by Ravens defensive specialists Terrell Suggs, Matthew Judon and Willie Henry. Baltimore should be razor focused and are 5-1 ATS their last 6 Monday games. They love the big stage. |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -1.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
LA Rams - It can't be an easy task to go on the road against a team that's playing great football on both sides of the ball and win your ninth consecutive game. A very rare feat indeed. I love the timing of having the Rams coming off a loss on the road and returning to the Coliseum expecting a crowd approaching the attendance numbers that USC gets. Let's take a look at some timing that the Saints have also enjoyed. Many believe that the Saints have found a defense. Compared to what their norm is, it's an easy conclusion. However, when facing an offensive team like the Redskins last game, they allowed 31 points. The numbers are further skewed when you also look at three other recent contest. New Orleans has faced some low-scoring teams as of late, as they played the Packers without Rodgers, followed by the Bears, Bucs, and Bills. Not exactly your scoring juggernaut. The Saints really don't matchup well with the Rams. The Saints will give up yards on the ground, so look for solid afternoon from Todd Gurley. Also, the Rams defend the pass well and they should at least contain Drew Brees. Overall the Rams defense has been terrific for a majority of the season and we can expect a gargantuan team effort to remain at the top and to establish confidence defeating a team headed to make the playoffs. Jared Goff, the Rams franchise 23-year old quarterback is having a breakout season, accumulating 2610 passing yards with a 16:4 TD to INT ratio. RB Todd Gurley is over 1200 combined rushing and receiving yardage giving the backfield perfect balance while also allowing Goff to hook up with Robert Woods downfield. The Saints will be marching out with a loss today. |
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11-26-17 | Panthers v. Jets +6 | Top | 35-27 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
NY Jets + The Jets are well rested after their bye week and play Carolina coming off consecutive victories over Tampa Bay, Atlanta, and Miami. Winning streaks of more than three games in a row are not your every day occurrence in the NFL. The Jets have played much better than many had planned this season. They had 14 point leads on New England and Miami and a halftime lead on Atlanta in addition to winning four games so far. The Jets are just one game out of the dismal AFC playoff race. A colossal eight teams in the four AFC divisions have teams either 5-5 or 4-6. The Carolina Panthers have been a nightmare for the sportsbooks having gone 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on the road. But many more times than not, the oddsmakers seem to get the pointspreads to adjust the second half of the season. They are much more inclined to make you pay an inflated price on a popular team with a very recognizable named quarterback as in Cam Newton. As far as the bottom feeder teams like the NY Jets, the oddsmakers anticipate one sided action on the favorite when the Jets play and as expected, we see just below 85% of the public wagering on the Panthers. But backing the Jets has a huge upside to it in the past as they are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games (78%). Josh McCown and the entire team have shown they know how to get a lead. Playing at home after a bye week has them energized. Getting this win today is monumental for this young team. The game plans indicate a low scoring game thus bringing the points into play. Look for an enormous herculean effort by the J-E-T-S to get the win and cover. |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys +2.5 | 28-6 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
Dallas + The short week by having to play on Thursday is a huge advantage for the home teams. It's all about the Cowboys run game. Running back Alfred Morris ran for 91 yards on 17 carries to lead the Cowboys against Philadelphia. On the season, the Chargers rank 22nd in defense (348.7ypc). They’ve struggled against the run all season, allowing 138.9 yards per game (32nd). They averaged 341.3 yards per game and 94.4 yards per game on the ground (25th). It's hard to put the Cowboys on a must win alert but at 5-5, they are. Look for a gallant effort by Dallas.
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11-19-17 | Eagles v. Cowboys +6.5 | 37-9 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
Dallas + There's an old rule of thumb in the NFL. Actually, there are many the seasoned professionals use but for this game, a very strong one applies. It goes like this: When you go to the betting window to bet a NFL game and betting that game makes you want to throw up, you're almost always on the right side. As for the betting, 85% are on the Eagles and 80% of the bets are on the over. Just what Vegas doesn't need. Every Joe on the favorite and the over on parlays to get bailed out on the Sunday Night game. Not happening! Dallas looked absolutely brutal last week against the Falcons. But they had a week to make adjustments and Philadelphia is coming off a bye week so anything can happen. The entire free world is aware of the Dallas problems so listing them here is unnecessary. The two keys are Sean Lee is out but he's been out half the season. Alfred Morris will have to step up and take over Zek's job. Dak Prescott has 16 TD's against 4 INT's with 2000 yards in passing yardage. Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley are strong options on offense as well as TE Jason Witten. Winning a rivalry game within this division on the road is more difficult than untangling 2000 feet of Christmas lights as some will find out soon enough. You might think it's going to be easy until you open the box. Perhaps under different circumstances, they split two meetings last season with each team prevailing at home. So the question is this; is the oddsmakers line set properly knowing that most every gambler and certainly every losing bettor is going to bet the Eagles? Is Vegas trying to be Mr Nice Guy? |
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11-19-17 | Lions v. Bears +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
Chicago + If there are any two teams with history that can be repeated, it's with these two. The Bears won the first meeting last season by a 17-14 score, and the Lions answered with a 20-17 win in the second meeting. Chicago does have a strong pass defense so they can create some havoc for Matthew Stafford. The winds are expected to be 21 mph with temperatures just below freezing. Note that the Lions are an indoor team. Last week, the Lions defense was not at their best in the win over the Browns, conceding 413 total yards. The Bears are a solid cold winter day rushing team. The Lions are also on a short week as they play Thanksgiving Day against NFC North division leader, Minnesota Vikings. For the Bears, Mitchell Trubisky was solid, connecting on 21 of 35 passes for a season-high 297 yards with one touchdown against zero interceptions last game. Along with Jeremy Howard, some key passing, solid defensive play and the Soldier Field crowd, the Lions may overlook this game and lose it outright. Reminder: the Bears did defeat the Steelers and Panthers at Soldier Field. |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers -7 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
Pittsburgh Seems like just four days ago, Indianapolis Colts were leading the Steelers deep into the 4th quarter and Pittsburgh had to rally just to get a win. Now, we're laying a touchdown against a team that's 6-3 with four consecutive wins. Go figure this year's NFL out. This will be the biggest test for a very injured Tennessee Titans team so far. Quarterback Marcus Mariota (1,783 passing yards, seven touchdowns, six interceptions) is battling ankle and shoulder injuries and plans to endure it against a very good #2 ranked Steelers defense and play through the pain. The third-year signal-caller never has faced the Steelers and a defensive unit that is as complex at this one allowing just 16 ppg. Marcus Mariota also has a hamstring that adds to his other injuries which is crucial playing on the road on a short week. Pittsburgh has Big Ben, JuJu, Antonio Brown and Le'Veon to test the entire Titans secondary. The Titans are 23rd in points allowed so Pittsburgh can control the scoreboard. The Steelers are notorious to struggle on the road (think Colts and Bears) while playing down to their competition. Playing at home is a different animal for the Steelers. For these short week games, the home team usually governs. But we also have the luxury of a very good Steelers offense, a smothering defense, the home team on a four game winning streak against a weaker team with a injured quarterback trying to adjust as a pocket passer and not quite able to run from outside the pocket. His inability to prevail at home last week against Cincinnati speaks volumes if you're listening. The Titans have not had this long of winning streak since 2009 and the pressure mounts as they share the top spot in the AFC South with Jacksonville. This looks like a "where did that performance come from" Ben Roethlisberger type game. Add tight end Vance McDonald Martavis Bryant to the list of offensive weapons. This looks like a 31-13 game as Pittsburgh outshines on a night game under the stars |
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11-12-17 | Patriots v. Broncos +8 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -115 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
Denver + In his career, Tom Brady is just 3-7 in Denver – regular season and postseason combined. Brady comes to Denver on Sunday night with another opportunity to exorcise his demons in the Mile High City. Long considered “Brady’s House of Horrors,” Sports Authority Field at Mile High has indeed given the sure-fire, first-ballot Hall of Famer fits over the years. And he gets to lay more than a touchdown on Sunday evening. Two years ago in Week 12, Brock Osweiler making just the second start of his NFL career – led the Broncos to victory over Brady and the Patriots on a snowy November night in Denver. Tonight, in full view of the nation, the Patriots, add WR Hogan and LB Hightower to the rododex of injured New England starters. That list is quite extensive. For the Broncos, you can bet that CJ Anderson and Jamaal Charles will be running the ball quite often. It's doubtful that the combination of Osweiller to Demaryius Thomas for huge yards will be chanced. It's difficult to bet against Brady but coming off a bye week to a venue his has only won 30% of the time and having to lay more than a touchdown is never easy. One must ask, what if it really was the thin air of mile high Denver that is the main culprit for his lack of success? The home team crowd will certainly help as a 12th man tonight. |
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11-12-17 | Jets v. Bucs +2 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
Tampa Bay + A pair of inter-conference foes will square off as the New York Jets Grapple with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Josh McCown used to play for the Buccaneers and Ryan Fitzpatrick used the play for the Jets. It's funny how these two quarterbacks have traded teams and while McCown is playing well, Ryan Fitzpatrick is a very capable journeyman and knows the Jets team as good as anybody. McCown has a QBR of 96.1 on the year, which is 10th in the league but incredibly New York has been poor on offense so far this year as they come in ranked 22nd in the league in total offense. So the big question is, will the Jets win this game with a great defensive performance? If we rely on their numbers and have history tells us their story, the Jets are not that impressive on defense either. On defense, they have been poor as they come in ranked 25th in total yards allowed (355.3 ypg), 20th against the pass (234.3 ypg) and 23rd vs the run (121.0 ypg), while allowing 23.0 ppg, which is 19th in the league. There are no free rides when it comes to betting the NFL against the Vegas numbers. The casinos don't like to get held up at the sportsbook cage and have 80% of the bettors present a (-1) betting slip on New York for that "gift" payday. There is something about this game that doesn't make sense. The Bucs offense was very good but with Winston at the helm but we have to throw out most of those numbers. Maybe their scheme on offense is set for Ryan Fitzpatrick to step in and he is able to manage a great game against his former team. |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +6.5 | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
Millionaires---Arizona |
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11-05-17 | Raiders v. Dolphins +3 | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
Miami + How many times does a team have to be reminded that they lost their last game 40-0? I bet Miami head coach Adam Gase told them so many times they're sick of hearing it. He was so mad, he traded their star complainer to the Eagles to show he's not messing around and no job is safe. If there was ever a game that says "outright win", it's this game. Even Jay Cutler got healed over night and will start. The Raiders are in a massive question and answer period of their own. And the return of Marshawn Lynch is not their answer. The veteran is averaging a career-low 3.7 yards per carry since coming out of retirement to join Oakland this season. Let's not forget that Miami is 4-3 even after that 40-0 meltdown. The Raiders Coach Del Rio, maybe a bit too nice to rework the Raiders confused season long attitude that they were a "shoe-in" for the Super Bowl. The Oakland Raiders have lost five of their last six games so let's not forget that. Chalk up that 40-0 beating in London to a gloom and doom vacation trip and watch the Miami defense to stop the entire Raiders offense while a bland Dolphins offense will have just enough to match up to a below average Raiders defense. Make an additional Money Line bet for added profit. |
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11-05-17 | Rams v. Giants +5 | 51-17 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 37 m | Show | |
New York Giants + If there ever was a game to get up for in front of your home fans, it's the arrival of the up and coming LA Rams. Knock them off and save some face. A win here would surely throw a wrench into the overall power ratings in the NFL. Few will see this one coming as the Giants offense comes into this game better prepared. It's really about the numbers game. Both teams are coming off their bye week allowing injuries to heal and replacements to adapt. The injury-ravaged New York Giants are hoping their bye week allowed for a few key players to heal up in time for this home matchup against the Rams today. Eli Manning has not played bad, especially considering the injuries, recording 1600 yards with a 10:5 TD to INT ratio. Sterling Shepard should be back for this one to help WR Evan Ingram and RB Orleans Darkwa. The Giants have had enough time to acclimate their offense since Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall got their season ending injuries. The strength of their team increases each week. The public and team numbers are still reflecting their game stats that followed those two key injuries which plummeted heavily, especially in the public perception category. Manning will have two wide receivers and a running game along with some players back to upset the Rams. Giants win as the last team to score. |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show | |
Ny Jets For a 38-yard old quarterback, Josh McCown has been a revelation with 1,840 yards passing with 12 TDs and seven picks (70.5%). The Jets have survived and have been competitive hanging in most games. The players have not given up on the season and look to play this division game tonight with a future reference in mind to next season as they move forward. Against Atlanta last week, McCown had a solid game, completing 26 of 33 for 257 yards with two TDs and no picks. Robby Anderson is his main target. What the Jets need is a running game or they may be the favorite tonight. For Buffalo, Tyrod Taylor threw for 224 yards with two TDs and LeSean McCoy got his rushes as the Bills defeated the Jets 21-12 in Buffalo in their earlier meeting. With Matt Bryant around to put field goals thru the uprights, the Jets are feisty enough to keep this game close and possibly pick up a win against their AFC East rival.
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10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions +3 | 20-15 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
-Detroit + The Steelers have won two games in a row at the expense of Kansas City and Cincinnati. Meanwhile, Detroit is coming in off a bye-week. Ben Roethlisberger’s is 2-0 since his five interception blowup game but the veteran signal-caller has just three touchdown passes while only getting picked off once in those two games. Three TD's in two games shouldn't add up to overconfidence from any Steelers backers. The problem with Pittsburgh comes from within. On the field, the offense has not been defined well enough. Is it Ben throwing short pass or longer ones to Brown? Did LaVon Bell screw up things with his holdout? He has finally rushed from 3.6 yards per carry to 4.7 ypc over the last two games. To go on the road as a favorite, your offense needs to be fine tuned. It's far to early to declare that any particular team is facing a must win game. The Lions are 4-2 and with the Vikings playing in London, the Bears at the Saints as a huge dog and the Packers on a bye with a quarterback problem, this is often how teams with less talent move upward in their conference standings. The Lions have the defense to cause just enough turnovers to win this game. They put forth an incredible effort late in the Saints game two weeks ago. I like the slight desperation that the Lions bring to the home turf. The Steelers are not in that have to win boat as they are 5-2 in the AFC North, comfortably ahead of the other three teams. Another potential problem may lay inside of the Steelers locker room. Coach Tomlin is in the news with far too many internal team locker rooms personalities to deal with. I get the feeling that this team while 5-2, is not that dominating Iron Curtain of Steelers Nation and at the first sign of turmoil, players will be playing the blame game. Look for a huge performance from that Lions gunslinger, Matt Stafford and a hard fought victory. |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys v. Redskins +2 | Top | 33-19 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 53 m | Show |
Washington Last Monday night, Kirk Cousins had a very nice game. It just so happened that his counterpart, Carson Wentz had an exceptional game and Cousins performance was largely overlooked. Tonight, he gets to once again showcase his game. But in a rainstorm. The Redskins are 15-6 ATS last 21 in this series. Dallas crushed the Niners but they had no passing game. They struggled against quality quarterbacks in losses to Aaron Rodgers and Jared Goff and Cousins fits in that category. The rain and wind may throw the Cowboys completely off track tonight. Their defense is nothing to hang your helmet on either. Missing the game has linebacker Sean Lee with a probable absence. That is a huge break for the Skins. Another advantage goes to the receivers due to a wet field. The Skins love to go to their tight ends in Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis which should prove effective. The underdog is 29-9 ATS in the last 38 meetings. Kicker Dan Bailey is out for Dallas for three weeks and good luck for Dallas going to their kickers rol-a-dex in search of one having to kick in the rain, wind, on the road against their biggest rivalry. |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show | |
-Baltimore The home team has such an advantage on these Thursday night home games and with Miami having a new quarterback to take center, it's even more of an advantage. On thing for certain, Matt Moore doesn't need to score often to reach the numbers that Jay Cutler put up. The Miami offense was last with their 13ppg season average. Their 262ypg was also last. Don't get too excited about Baltimore's offense. They are equally as bad. Flacco is decent but without a running game, the opponent seems to just key on him. The Ravens have one job to do tonight, to stop Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi. There will probably be more field goals than touchdowns so Justin Tucker will be our weapon tonight as Baltimore wins by 6-9 points. |
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10-22-17 | Broncos v. Chargers +1 | Top | 0-21 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
LA Chargers + The Chargers have lost four games but now they are on a two game winning streak having defeated the Giants and the Raiders. Their defense played great against Oakland. Oakland scored only six points in the second half and the Chargers put up a 10-spot in the fourth quarter to seal the comeback. Philip Rivers receives total respect on the gridiron as he regularly puts up enough points to win. They now have a defense that can match his efforts. The Broncos are coming off a dreadful setback against the previously winless Giants. Last week's Broncos loss was the single biggest win for the Vegas Sportsbooks this season. One gambler, lost $770,000 and is still trying to figure it out. When he sees that 90% of the public was on Denver, it may occur to him. Let's take advantage of some "key" Bronco injuries. Wide receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Isaiah McKenzie suffered right ankle sprains against New York and both will be sidelined from this week’s trip to Los Angeles. With the public seeing that the visitors are 6-0 ATS at StubHub, many will bet on that stat and the fact that Denver is coming off a loss. Meanwhile, Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian–who left the recent loss for a brief time due to a shoulder injury–has also been cleared to play. Denver is coming in weak and the Chargers have all cylinders working at this time. |
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10-22-17 | Panthers v. Bears +3 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 7 h 5 m | Show | |
Chicago + The Bears have to feel good coming home to play today's contest. The Panthers come into this game off of a 28-23 home loss to the Eagles, while the Bears are off a 27-24 OT win over the Ravens on the road. What's not to like? Rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky , the second pick out of North Carolina, is a quarterback that his team can rally around. The Bears have a long way to go to get to the playoffs, but they have a good defense and a QB to build around, so they are on the right path. The Black and Blue Bears will win as they usually do. A huge defensive effort. On defense, they have been very solid so far as they come in ranked 6th in total yards allowed (302.7 ypg) and 8th against the pass (198.3 ypg). Just enough to get the outright win. Oh, let's not overlook one of the best running backs in the league; Jordan Howard. He'll get his yards AND take the pressure off his rookie QB. |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders +3 | Top | 30-31 | Win | 110 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
Oakland + Not sure what happened to a team predicted to make a deep run in the playoffs at the beginning of the season (and rightly so). The Raiders have now lost four straight games after opening up the season 2-0. It should end tonight. Kansas City on many fronts is a good team but far from a great team. Team film is catching up with them. Their running game stunk against the Steelers last Sunday. They had just 28 rushing yards on 15 carries. Rookie running back Kareem Hunt was pathetic after such a good start to the season. They needed the run to set up the pass for Alex Smith. It didn't happen. Tonight for the Raiders, it starts with Carr, who is about 100 percent and with a game under his belt after his injury. Getting points at home in a rivalry divisional game on a short week is an automatic play. Nothing to figure out. Plus the Raiders are hitting that must win territory and this is a great spot for them.
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10-15-17 | Steelers +4.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-13 | Win | 100 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
Pittsburg + Ben R is not done contrary to what he was whining about after last weeks performance against Jacksonville. I guarantee that last week will not be part of his legacy. What he really needs after doing everything in his 13 year old career are new challenges. His season might be just above average but as a highly seasoned veteran, he would like nothing better than to blowout the undefeated Chiefs in front of the Arrowhead crowd. Now that's a challenge for a champion. Look for Antonio Brown and Ben to hook up while their awesome defense holds the Chiefs to a bad memory. Ben R has gone 5-1 and has thrown for 1433 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs while posting a 118.7 QBR in his career against the Chiefs. Steelers roll and it won't be a shock. |
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10-15-17 | Packers v. Vikings +3.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
Minnesota + Minnesota edged the Packers 17-14 at home in the first meeting last season and have the perfect defensive secondary to make Aaron Rodgers somewhat ineffective. While we remember that Green Bay grabbed a win against the Cowboys last week, the Packers defense did not play well in the win against Dallas, allowing 408 total yards, and the Cowboys were able to go 7 for 12 on third downs. The Vikings defense is awesome and will be there all game to play. The Vikings defense is a force, allowing 17 or fewer points in three straight games and defense wins these vastly important games. Furthermore, the Vikings running game was terrific last week led by Jerick McKinnon, and the Packers have shown they will give up yards on the ground, allowing an average of 121 rushing yards per game. Case Keenum may be a backup QB but the important roles are the Vikings defense and their run game. If put to the test, his touchdown to interception ratio is better than the ratio of the overall Packers defense verses the opponents rushing. This is more than a "live" dog, this is your outright winner. |
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