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Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
09-30-17	Georgia v. Tennessee +9	Top	41-0	Loss	-110	10 h 19 m	Show
Tennessee + 8 No revenge here as Tennessee looks to outperform Georgia again. The Bulldogs come in off a strong 31-3 home win over Mississippi State, while the Volunteers are off a hard-fought 17-13 win over Massachusetts. The Volunteers won last year’s meeting in Georgia by a score of 34-31. Pay no attention to what Tennessee did last week. Taking on Massachusetts can put some SEC teams to sleep as they feel they can just show up and get the win and most of them are right, but if they have a powerful SEC team on deck, then they could be caught looking ahead and that is exactly what happened to the Vols. The Georgia Bulldogs have been below average on offense so far this year as they come in ranked 82nd in the nation in total offense (389.2 ypg), 112th in passing (166.0 ypg), 30th in rushing (223.2 ypg) and 63rd in scoring at 31.0 ppg. Tennessee should be able to match scores at every opportunity. Look for this final to be under 4 points either way. This is certainly one of those games that the underdog might by ahead on the pointspread the entire game.
09-29-17	USC v. Washington State +5	Top	27-30	Win	100	17 h 56 m	Show
Washington St I'm not saying the wrong team is favored but one can definitely make a case for Washington St being in the contest throughout the game. Washington State and USC battle for the first time since 2014. The winner remains undefeated while the loser falls behind in the Pac-12 race. USC is coming off a solid 30-20 road win over Cal, while the Cougars just defeated Oregon State at home, 52-23. This is also a matchup of two of the better Pac-12 quarterbacks in Sam Darnold and Luke Falk. USC quarterback Sam Darnold has thrown seven interceptions in his first four games, but his team has managed to win all four games. Darnold now has 1,225 yards passing with nine TDs and seven picks this year with a 67.1 percent completion rate. Deontay Burnett is his favorite target with 462 yards of receiving, while Ronald Jones has 322 yards rushing with six scores. Overall, USC is averaging 492 yards of offense with 306.2 yards passing per game. They are allowing 370.2 yards per game on defense of which 216.8 yards per game is thru the air. Could the Cougars quarterback have a field day? Luke Falk has completed 76.9 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards with 14 TDs and just one interception. But that’s not unusual as he’s gone over 10,000 yards for his career in 2.5 years. Washington State ranks third in the nation in passing yards per game (432.5ypg). I think the Cougars defense can also hang throughout the game. On defense, they are allowing just 263.2 yards per game (11th) and just 142.2 ypg in the air (12th). The reason for not rating this game much higher is that Washington St has no running game. Anytime you throw the ball, turnovers can take place. Additionally, eating up the clock is somewhat difficult. The Cougars will hang tuff in this huge game that has to be the hottest ticket to get in Pullman, Washington in years.
09-28-17	Bears v. Packers -7		14-35	Win	100	13 h 16 m	Show
Green Bay Let's not get crazy after seeing the Bears defeat a poor road playing team from Pittsburgh last Sunday. While they did put up a great defense against Atlanta in week one and the Steelers last week, it was at home fueled by the home crowd. The Chicago Bears go into one of the toughest stadiums to play when they meet the Packers at Lambeau Field on Thursday night. Last season, the Packers won both games, by three on the road and by 16 at home. Jordan Howard rushed for 138 yards on 23 carries with two scores, while Cohen added 78 yards on 12 carries. That’s Chicago’s strength right now because their passing game has been hampered by injuries at wide receiver. Mike Glennon completed 19 of 22 passes of the short variety for 101 yards on just 4.6 yards per pass. He was also sacked twice and threw a pick (74.2 QBR). For the Pack, Aaron Rodgers threw for 313 yards on 28 of 42 with three TDs (102.6 QBR). The Packers had no running game, as they were held to just 64 rushing yards on 17 carries. Safety Josh Jones had an outstanding game for the Packers with 12 tackles, two sacks and three TFLs. This game will play close for three quarters until Rodgers airs it out in the fourth quarter to ice it.
09-25-17	Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5	Top	28-17	Loss	-120	16 h 44 m	Show
Arizona+3 I almost did a double take when I realized that both teams tonight come in at 1-1. Arizona got by Indy in OT and Dallas got it handed to them by Denver. Rest assured that the Cardinals will bring everything they have tonight and will leave it all on the gridiron. Veteran running back Chris Johnson should be able to run on Dallas and QB Carson Palmer will need to use his experience and pick on the reserve cornerbacks. The Cardinals defense will have to play one of their best games to pull this out. The strength of Arizona is their passing game and Dallas’ big weakness right now is in the secondary. Dallas is two cornerbacks short due to injuries and this is huge. Make that three out as their top cornerback Orlando Scandrick (broken hand) is out unless he can play with a broken hand. Don't lose sleep thinking the Cowboys can't lose back to back games. That's often how teams play. The win a bunch then lose a few. Look for Arizona to send shockwaves throughout Jerry's world as the Cowboys go down for the count.
09-24-17	Raiders v. Redskins +3.5	Top	10-27	Win	100	18 h 12 m	Show
Washington + 3 Oakland makes that long trip from the west coast to the east coast for the Sunday Night prime time game. That travel has bothered them in previous years but the last two years, not so. Oakland cruised to a 2-0 start as they pounded the Jets 45-20 at home Sunday. Washington got into the win column as they edged the Rams 27-20 on the road Sunday. The Redskins won the all important week two game on the road against a good Rams team to avoid that 0-2 start. That was impressive. Oakland's defensive coordinators may have trouble game planning this Redskin team. Washington ran the ball 39 times for 229 yards in the game while throwing just 27 passes. That’s a major shift in offensive philosophy with the options the Redskins have in the passing game. They are 3rd in rushing which has to help establish the pass. I expect to see the ball thrown by Cousins to keep them guessing. He's completed 41 of 67 passes for 419 yards with two touchdowns. Washington still has more offensive weapons than most any two teams combined. Look for the Raiders defense to get behind and this game goes to a shootout. The Raiders have not turned the ball over yet and it's amazing how the game changes when that happens. We'll see how they react on the road in front of a huge crowd. Playing at home against the Jets in a blowout and playing on the road in Washington are two different dimensions.
09-24-17	Chiefs v. Chargers +3.5		24-10	Loss	-115	14 h 7 m	Show
LA Chargers + 3 You can probably get a ticket for $7 for this game and still see more Chiefs fans. Stub Hub doesn't have a ring of home field advantage. Look for a very focused Chargers team today that knows how to lose a game but cover a pointspread. The Chiefs come in off a nice 27-20 win over Philadelphia at home, while the Chargers are off a tough 19-17 home loss to the Dolphins. The Chiefs won both meetings between these teams last year. Last year the Chargers were just 1-8 in games decided by seven points or less and 1-4 in games decided by three points or less and they after two games this year they lost by three and two points. Are the Chiefs that good one has to ask? The Chiefs have not played well on defense so far as they are 29th in the league in yards allowed, giving up 388.5 ypg and they allowed 406 total yards to the Eagles. They are also 27th against the pass, allowing 273 ypg (299 to Philly), but that shows that stats can lie as the Chiefs are still 2-0 on the year. The Chargers can finally get their first win of the year as they learn how to win a close game. Rivers has a passing game that can do damage against the secondary of the Chiefs and the Los Angeles defense looks far stronger than it was a year ago.
09-24-17	Broncos v. Bills +3.5		16-26	Win	100	11 h 41 m	Show
Buffalo +3 Can Tyron Taylor pull the upset and the Bills put on an inspirational showing for their fans to stay relevant at 2-1 for the season? The Broncos are coming off a convincing 42-17 home win over the Cowboys, and the Bills were edged 9-3 by the Panthers in their latest action. They need to continue with excellent defense and can wrap up a win. The Bills’ defense was the silver lining in the loss to the Panthers, conceding only 255 total yards and 178 passing yards. They also applied big pressure to Cam Newton, making a total of six sacks with Lorenzo Alexander coming up with one sack and two tackles for a loss. The Bills defense has looked terrific through two games. With two games of film, defense coordinators have seen Denver QB Trevor Siemian and the rushing antics of CJ Anderson. 85% of the public is on the Broncos and want some of that free money that the sportsbooks never seem to give out. The home team advantage is real and a huge defensive effort can stop Denver.
09-23-17	San Diego State v. Air Force +3.5		28-24	Loss	-110	18 h 52 m	Show
Air Force + A pair of Mountain West teams looked great last week and now attempt to beat each other. San Diego State survived a weather delay to rally in the final minute to stun #19 Stanford 20-17 Saturday night. Air Force was knocked off 29-13 on the road by #7 Michigan Saturday but looked very respectful. Air Force hung tough against Michigan’s defense but couldn’t come up with enough plays on either side of the ball to earn an upset win in the Big House. The Falcons were within a field goal late in the third quarter but fell short. Michigan kicked five field goals and scored on a 79-yard punt return and that was quite a feat all around to hold them as Air Force did. These two teams tonight tend to bring exciting action to the table as they are evenly matched. Winning on the road in this conference is never easy and winning and covering are another issue. A difficult one. The Air Force Falcons are 8th in rushing offense with 320.5 yards per contest. That's enough to control the clock and time of possession leaving San Diego breathless in the mile high air.
09-23-17	TCU +14 v. Oklahoma State	Top	44-31	Win	100	14 h 26 m	Show
Inner Circle--TCU + A huge matchup within the Big 12 Conference this afternoon as two high powered offenses go at it. TCU comes in off a 56-36 win over SMU at home, while the Cowboys are off a 59-21 rout of the Pitt Panthers on the road. The TCU Horned Frogs are looking like they will be a tough out in the Big 12 this year but, (there's usually a but) their defense needs to step up their game. They have the talent. They have seven players back on the defensive side of the ball and have the top rated LB corps and top-rated secondary in the league. Time to take charge! The offense has back 10 starters this year and they have looked very good so far. They rolled up 619 yards against the SMU Mustangs. Passing wise, they are a difficult team to defend and cover. They have plenty of weapons as 10 players caught at least one pass that went at least 10 yards in the win over the Mustangs. All that is needed against Oklahoma States offense is to raise the level of defense a notch. They currently are ranked 15th in total yards allowed (265.0 ypg), 34th against the pass (172.7 ypg) and 19th vs the run (92.3 ypg), while allowing 14.3 ppg, which is 22nd in the nation. Getting double digit points are looking great in this kind of shootout type game. Oklahoma St is 53rd against the pass (203.3 ypg) and that may be their Achilles Hill today.
09-22-17	Utah -3.5 v. Arizona		30-24	Win	100	10 h 6 m	Show
Millionaires-Utah It will be more of the same as last seasons game. Last year’s meeting was played at Utah and the Utes won that game by a score of 36-23. This is the Pac-12 opener for both squads. Utah can now throw the ball as they had 341 yards through the air in the win over San Jose last week. This is a very dangerous balanced team looking to make a run at the southern championship of the PAC 12. But the defense is really what has leads this team and should shut down Arizona tonight. The Utes had the top run defense in the league last year and they held Arizona to just 127 yards on the ground. Speaking of defense, the Arizona defense was one of the worst in the league last year, especially their pass defense and while it has improved this year, they faced really weak offenses in two of their three games. This will be a different animal as the Utah offense has played very well this year, especially their passing attack. Tyler Huntley is hot and should have a very good game against the Wildcats.
09-07-17	Chiefs +9 v. Patriots	Top	42-27	Win	100	4 h 7 m	Show
Kansas City Does the public know that this Patriots team is somewhat different than the one that played the second half of last years Super Bowl? They may be more down to Planet Earth this year to start the season. Tom Brady is 39 and basically a statue right now. The Chiefs will design stunts and blitzes to at least bother him. He may be getting a frustrating game against the Chiefs. He’ll also miss his security blanket (Edelman) as Danny Amendola is not the same player. That means more responsibility for 31-year old Amendola, who can do most of the things Edelman did but just not as well. Defensively, they lack a dominant pass rusher which has to be the advantage the Chiefs need. Kansas City quarterback quarterback Patrick Mahones is ready to get the call should Alex Smith struggle. He is definitely their franchise going forward. Coach Andy Reid knows Smith is limited going downfield. WR Tyreek Hill is too good to waste and is their go to guy. Reid's team rarely get blown out. In fact they are 6-0 ATS their last six road games. The Chiefs are not a team you can beat by double digits in order to cover the spread. The Pats will have a bullseye on them until they show that once again they can dominate the entire game. This is too many point for New England to lay opening game with all the ceremonies and distractions going on there.

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