In MAC attack matchup that starts feeding our weekday football feeding frenzy, the total in this game has surged from 42 to 48. Both these teams have been excellent defensively, with Eastern Mich. permitting 19.9 PPG and Northern Illinois even better at 16.7 PPG. Both offenses have scored fewer points than what opponents they have faced have allowed. Each team has shown UNDER tendencies in MAC play, thus, I will grab the UNDER with EMU 15-5 UNDER of late and NIU 12-3 UNDER after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better.

For this prime time ACC encounter, forget the shootouts of the last two years, Houston is not close to the same offensively and is averaging just 25.5 PPG against opponents allowing 31.6. Memphis can score and give up a lot of points, however, the Cougars bend but don't break defense has only been burned by Tulsa last week (45 points). Let's think about lower score as October home teams, when the total is between 56.5 and 63, after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, are 46-17 UNDER the last decade. 

Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees a shootout right? I am thinking the opposite and here is why. Both defenses are playing better and while Detroit had coverage issues with Can Newton, that has not been the norm this season. I wish I could explain New Orleans defense. Had contact tell Saints defense was vastly improved in August and after two games I called and mocked his information. He called me after Miami shutout and asked what I thought. They have ironed out what was wrong and I like the Lions pass run and improved run defense. With Detroit 12-3 UNDER on the road in conference clashes the past three seasons and 9-1 UNDER away off a home game, I will back the UNDER big time. 

Green Bay will be at Jerry's World this week, the same place they knocked Dallas out of the postseason back in January. The Packers pulled off a 34-31 upset and both teams blew by the total of 53.This time sportsbooks sent out a total of 53.5 and it has been lowered to 52.5 or 52.I think the public has this wrong. Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott are both capable of big games and are surrounded by players that can make that happen. Since the season opener for both clubs, the defenses have not been close to dominating and when to realize these two are 10-1 OVER playing each other in the Lone Star State, you can now understand what I have bet on. 

At this early point in the season, neither Chicago’s or Green Bay’s offense is clicking, for different reasons. The Bears simply aren’t that capable offensively and new QB Mike Glennon is really struggling. The Packers are VERY capable normally, but with so many key injuries already, they look nothing like the unit that closed last season. QB Aaron Rodgers seems to be under intense pressure every time he drops back. All of this leads me to believe that Thursday night’s game figures to be a defensive hard fought battle. The defenses should rule the day, despite their “averageness” as this system indicates: Play Under against the total in a game involving two average defensive teams (18-23 PPG). The record of the system is 152-92 over the last 5 seasons. On top of that, these teams have gone under the total in seven of the L9 they have played at Lambeau Field, with the Bears averaging 12.2 PPG. Let’s go with the UNDER on TNF.

The Houston-Texas MLB contest for Monday sports a total befitting of the teams’ combined offensive potential, along with the hitters’ conditions at the Ballpark in Arlington. However, potential and what is actually happening right now are two different things. The Rangers’ lineup is struggling mightily lately, coming off a 3-game series in which they managed a grand total of 2 runs. Going back even further, looking at the 9-game road trip that they are coming off of, the Rangers scored just 25 runs on 56 hits, not exactly potent. What reason is there to believe the bats are going to wake up tonight against Astros’ RH Collin McHugh, who sports an ERA of 3.44 and WHIP of 1.26 currently. The Astros have also been struggling to plate runs, setting up for a nice system: Play Under - All teams where the total is 10 or higher (HOUSTON) - after 4 straight games where they stranded 7 or less runners on base, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. System record is 45-18 since 1997. Let’s go with the UNDER in Texas tonight.

The Ducks offense has too much speed for Wyoming and the Cowboys will keep throwing under QB Josh Allen. Cannot see less the 65 points and if one team (WYOMING) has played two consecutive games with a turnover margin of +1 or better, in a game involving two squads with a 2.5+ turnovers forced a game, the OVER is 28-4.

Though Notre Dame and Boston College do not meet each other all the time, when they do, it is always intense for this Catholic institutions. In particular for the Eagles, who feel like the little brother in this conflict. Boston College under coach Steve Addazio has been a tough, physical club, that cannot find a quarterback that lift the program. The Eagles are again stunted offensively in averaging 16.5 PPG. The Notre Dame offense was unimpressive versus Georgia, though there defense appears much improved over the last couple seasons. With how both defenses are capable of playing, points will not come easy and besides, B.C. is 7-0 UNDER in home games after scoring 14 points or less and the Irish are 21-9 UNDER away after gaining 100 or less rushing yards.

For my NFL systems, it says that Week 1 non-divisional conference games featuring a road favorite and a total greater than 41 are 22-4 UNDER (84.6%) the total since ’99. Considering that the home teams in this particular system have scored just 14.6 PPG in the 26 contests, it would seem that these teams are home dogs for a good reason…they can’t score. The result is obvious, UNDER’s. Atlanta went OVER the total at a 16-2-1 clip last season. It would be insane to take them under in their first game of week 1, right??? WRONG. According to the system it would be the right thing to do. Let’s look at a key points…1) Chicago is breaking in a new quarterback and will probably be looking to establish the run more to avoid getting into a shootout with the Falcons. 2) Atlanta has a new offensive coordinator after losing Kyle Shanahan to San Francisco. 3) The Falcons typically were able to play faster on turf, the Bears will host this game on grass.  It might get close, but I see this game a low 40’s game, not a high 40’s. Go UNDER

Nevada has a new coach, is changing schemes on both sides; that is a lot to work with. Though Northwestern's Pat Fitzgerald is a notorious lousy home favorite, he is just as well known for being an UNDER coach. He is 26-11 UNDER as a home favorite and 29-13 UNDER in nonconference clashes. One more aspect, in September, the Wildcats the last two years are a perfect 8-0 UNDER! 

I was perplexed to see this total in AL action sink from 9 to 8.5. Both offenses have been ringing up 5.5 or more RPG of late and each starting pitchers have been troubling in exact situations. Boston's Doug Fister (2-6, 5.56) struggles in the traveling gray's with a 7.27 ERA on the road. Cleveland's Carlos Carrasco (12-5, 3.76) has thrown much better in his past two outings after a bumpy stretch, yet has a 4.80 ERA at home and against the Red Sox checks in at an unsightly 6.43. With Carrasco 25-11 OVER as a home favorite the last few years, I'll grab the OVER. 

Tampa Bay has been in a real rut offensively, averaging 2.2 runs per contest going into Saturday. Today we will have a precise indication of just how bad this slump really is when they face Seattle's Yovani Gallardo. The seemingly almost washed up Gallardo is only 31, but he's dropped about 5 MPH on his fastball since his prime with Milwaukee and has a 5.84 ERA. The Rays Blake Snell (4.79 ERA) is not exactly missing a myriad of bats as his 4.89 ERA suggests. With the total at 9.5, my pal Gallardo is 14-4 OVER in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out seven or more times a contest since last year.

When you think of Arizona playing Minnesota, even ardent baseball fans cannot visualize an instance of these two teams on the same field ever. Of course it has happened and I can foresee the outcome falling below the sportsbooks post of 9. Zack Godley has been a consistent starter all season and is sporting a fine 2.95 ERA. Statistically, Ervin Santana is having one of his best seasons at 34 and his 3.28 ERA is well below his career-norm of 4.04. To further support this line of thinking, the D-Backs are 25-9 UNDER on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 and Santana is 17-7 UNDER as an underdog of +150 or lower. 

The Texas Rangers offense has hit another gear, averaging better than 11 hits a contest and 6.9 runs in their last seven games. They will face somebody named Reynaldo Lopez (3.00) for the White Sox and if he got any sleep after watching Texas highlight's from last night, I would be shocked. The total of 11 might sound high even with how the Rangers are swinging the lumber, nonetheless, Texas starter Tyson Ross is not exactly mowing down opposing batters with a 7.10 ERA in eight starts. Don't be afraid of big number. 

Last evening St. Louis and Boston totaled 14 runs with the Red Sox a 10-4 winner, as the team's pounded out 25 hits and the famous Green Monster in left field got plenty of background shots on television. Tonight's total has been set at 9.5, but I'm not sure it will be threatened with Lance Lynn (3.12) facing  Eduardo Rodriguez (3.80). Lynn has a 1.45 ERA in his past seven starts and has held opponents to two runs or fewer in an major-league-best 18 starts and one or fewer in 12 starts, which ties him for the major league lead. Rodriguez is 5-1 UNDER at Fenway Park this season and if his team is off a victory, the left-hander is 15-4 UNDER. 

With Jacob deGrom (3.21) facing Sonny Gray (3.39), it seems safe to say there will be quite a few more people in the bar at Trump Tower in New York than on base at Yankee Stadium tonight. Both pitchers have been dialed in for some time now and with the total at eight, this does not appear anything they cannot overcome. While both the Mets and Yankees are capable of hanging crooked numbers in several games, they have become inconsonant. For example, the Yanks are 18-9 UNDER after batting .225 or worse over a five- game span, while the Metropolitans are 19-7 UNDER vs. teams outscoring opponents by 0.5 or more runs a game in the second half of the season since last year.

Though Kansas City was losing the first three times on their current road trip eight-game road trip, they were coming out of their offensive funk and have tallied 6.6 runs per contest thus far as they travel to Oakland. The Athletics bats have been in good form also in ringing up 5.6 RPG in their last seven ballgames. A Jake Junis (4.70 ERA) vs. Jharel Cotton (5.72) matchup does not inspire the thought of a low score with the MLB odds at 9.5. Here is something you should consider; AL teams hitting .260 or less, against an opponent with a bullpen ERA 4.50 or higher, batting .305 or better over their last five games, are 34-8 OVER since 2013. 

Both Houston and Arizona are going through a rough patch. Those sensational offenses we witnessed before the All-Star break have cooled and the continual winning with it. The Astros have only scored 17 runs in their past half dozen tries and trying to solve the array of pitches from Zack Greinke (3.14) is never a simple process. Since winning wild 10-8 contest at Wrigley Field, Arizona have averaged 3.77 RPG. While it is true they have faced some tough pitching staffs in that stretch, every team does. Collin McHugh (5.32) has been either good or bad since returning from the DL for Houston and with the D-Backs 11-2 UNDER playing against a foe with a 54% to 62% win percentage, I will support the UNDER 9. 

For those unfamiliar with living in the south desert of Arizona, this is the so-called - Monsoon Season - where from basically July 4th until the end of August, the majority of time there is a chance of rain. Otherwise, you can literally go months without moisture on the ground. My educated prediction is that a Jake Arrieta vs. Zack Godley will be in keeping with sparse production in terms of base-runners plating. After a slow start, Arrieta has only given as many as three earned runs just once in his last seven starts. And with all the pitching prospects the Arizona was thought to have developed over the last five years, Godley is emerging the best of the bunch with a super 2.94 ERA. With the Snakes a -110 to -115 opening favorite and total of 9, you has to ponder in the Cubs past 30 games in which their money line was -125 to +125, the average total runs scored was 7.7 per game, which explains my outcome.

Yesterday's pitching match was pretty good, but today's is much better with Drew Pomeranz (3.36 ERA) going against Luis Severino (2.91) on FS1 at 4:05 EDT. With rare exception, both have been in very good grooves and especially so lately, with the Boston lefty sporting 2.50 ERA in his last three starts and Severino downright stingy at 0.96 in the same amount of games. With the total posted at 8.5, the Yanks are 12-4 UNDER in the second half of the season versus winning teams. 

The Angels bats were ready last night and knocked around James Paxton, who had been on a major roll and finished off Seattle with Mike Trout's bases clearing double in the ninth inning for the victory. With the total at 9.5, that seems low considering we are talking about starting pitchers Ricky Nolasco (5-12, 5.09 ERA) for Anaheim and Marco Gonzales (0-0, 12.27) for the M's. Both clubs are averaging nearly five runs a contest in their past seven games and with two starting pitchers like this, each team will have an excellent opportunity to reach that same level of scoring by the sixth inning. 

#915-16  Astros/White Sox Over 9.5

Here is what you need to know about Houston and the Chicago White Sox. The Astros are the best team in the AL, they average a mind-boggling 6.9 runs per game on the road (Washington is second in baseball at 5.4) and they have been without two of their best hitters, George Springer and Carlos Correa for some time. They will face Derrick Holland (5.27), who is not the same pitcher we remember in Texas before injuries and he has 6.63 ERA in his past three starts, walking nearly a batter an inning, which is making his problems far worse. Dallas Keuchel is 9-1, with a 2.15 ERA, but after a lengthy bout on the DL recovering from a neck ailment, the left-hander has shown signs of vulnerability, allowing a total of six earned runs in eight innings (6.75 ERA) over the two starts. When I look at those MLB odds of 9.5 on the total and uncover Holland is 14-3 OVER vs. teams outscoring foes by one or more runs a game and Houston is 12-4 OVER on the road when the total is 9 to 9.5 this season, I really do not have to do any more research.

The New York Yankees have been hanging around first place all season, which has been rather startling considering they were supposed to do this possibly next season in the remodeling process. Among the reasons for their success has been CC Sabathia (9-4, 3.81 ERA), who looked to be going the way of Matt Cain, an older ace with a big contract too expensive to release, who could barely get hitter's out. Sabathia figured out a new way to pitch, got healthy and has pitched beyond expectations.  J.A. Happ (4-8, 3.92) will go for Toronto and he appears to finally getting healthy and he has a great track record versus the Yankees. With total at 9.5 (now 9), the Yankees big man is 13-4 UNDER versus teams averaging 1.25 or more homer a game and Happ is 16-5 UNDER in home night games since 2015.  

The Big A in Anaheim has for a long time been known to favor lower scoring games. Though Anaheim is quite a ways inland from the Pacific Ocean, the nightly heavier air keeps enough fly balls in the park. Yet in the last three seasons when rival Oakland comes to town, the game could be played in a dense fog (OK a slight exaggeration) and these two clubs would still score runs. No doubt the pitching staffs for both teams have not been great and this the key rationale behind them having 17-6-1 OVER record. Today, a scuffling Sal Manaea (5.17 ERA, L3G) is opposed by a seemingly always scuffling Rick Nolasco (5.40 ERA, L3G). With the A's a +115 underdog and the total at 9, Manaea is 11-3 OVER in that role this campaign. 

Milwaukee and Tampa Bay remain in playoff contention in part because of how well their starting pitchers have performed, with both in the Top 7 in the majors in ERA. Two hurlers who have made huge contributions will start this evening, Zach Davies for the Brewers and Alex Cobb for Tampa Bay. Davies is 6-0 on the road this season with a sterling 2.83 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Cobb was knocked around in his last start at Houston, but for the season has an excellent 2.58 ERA when pitching under the dome in Clearwater. Add in the Brew Crew is 15-2 UNDER after scoring four runs or less in three straight games this season, this will be low scoring affair.