NC A&T already has a win under their belts on the road at Jacksonville State 20-17. They beat Kent State in 2016 and Charlotte last year so there's no level of intimidation here. QB Lamar Raynard has not lost as starter yet for the Aggies. The team has been in the top 10 in run defense pretty much every year under Sam Washington except 2014 when they were 24th. Raynard struggled in the first game with just 12 completions, but the defense did what they had to in order to beat JSU. East Carolina is coming off a 3-9 season in which it lost at home to JMU 34-14.. Trevon Brown is a good wide receiver for Reid Herring who has one career pass. I don't see this being a blowout and can certainly see a victory for the road team. 

Nicholls State lost 24-14 at Texas A&M last year and hung tough at Georgia two years ago. The Colonels return pretty much their whole offense which was very successful. They are led by Chase Fourcade under center and he's the 4th leading rusher. His one issue was too many interceptions with 13 of them to just 14 touchdowns. The backfield is stacked and the top wide receiver is back in Damion Jeanpiere. The defense is filled with juniors and seniors who would not be intimidated by Kansas. The Jayhawks have struggled against FCS opponents. Their win last year over SEMO was 38-16 and represented the only victory. Kansas has 18 starters back and Peyton Bender is going to be under center. He's got a lot of his skill positions back. To get 10 points is a gift especially since they can win outright. 

The Huskies were 8-5 in 2017 and won't be intimidated by playing at Iowa. Last year they won at Nebraska and nearly knocked off San Diego State at their place a week later. This offense has eight starters back and is starting to get comfortable with Marcus Childers under center. The defense features a stout defensive line that will face an Iowa team without both of it's tackles. The Hawkeyes have gone 8-5 each of the past two seasons. Their offense features Nathan Stanley and Noah Fant while the defense is solid as well. This team has struggled at times at home losing to Purdue and Penn State there. They aren't flashy, but just get things done. NIU is 16-6 against the spread against the Big 10. 

The Minutemen are flying high after a 63-15 win over Duquesne in Week 0 of the college football season. They head to Chestnut Hill to take on Boston College on Saturday. These two teams played back in 2016 with BC winning 26-7 at UMass. The Minutemen are led by signal caller Andrew Ford on offense along with running back Marquis Young and wideout Andy Isabella. The defense has six starters back with returnees on all levels. They have traditionally struggled against run defenses which is what BC wants to do with AJ Dillon. UMass lost last year by 10 at Coastal Carolina, 8 at Temple, 4 at Tennessee, 11 at Mississippi State and by 18 at FIU. BC has 16 starters back with 10 of them on offense. Anthony Brown is a decent quarterback that has had turnover issues from time-to-time. The defense may take a bit of a step back after allowing 22.8 points per game in 2017. The Eagles lost four games at home last year but also blew out UConn, Florida State and Central Michigan as well. I think in this case the team getting a game under the belt is a help and the Minutemen make things interesting. UMass is 8-4 against the spread the last three years on the road.

It's a rivalry when Temple plays Villanova on the gridiron. The Owls beat the Cats 16-13 last year at home when Nova wasn't even full strength. Temple has won four straight in this series and is returning 12 starters. Frank Nutile is the quarterback and he stabilizes the position. The team's defense lost crucial pieces, but still has a solid front line as well as a solid secondary. The Wildcats had only five wins last season because of a massive amount of injuries. They are led by Zach Bednarczyk and a lot of his offensive weapons who got hurt. This team's offense could be tough to slow down. Nova's defense was fourth in the nation in rushing yards allowed. Rob Rolle and Jeff Steeb are good leaders with Rolle coming off injury as well. I really think this line is inflated and that it'll be a one score game. 

It's a rare trip for the ACC to MAC country as Syracuse goes to Kalamazoo to play Western Michigan. The Broncos are led by Tim Lester who was the OC for the Orange in 2015. A lot of his staff was with him in New York and some of them helped him recruit Eric Dungey to the school. Dungey is the lone active FBS signal caller with 6,000 passing and 1,000 rushing yards. His weapons have taken a downturn from last year when he had Phillips and Ishmael hauling in passes. The run game is improved, but how much will they be able to use it in a potentially high scoring game. The Broncos defense is very strong and deep especially in the secondary where Juwan Dowels and Justin Tranquill will be playing. Jon Wassink is the WMU quarterback and he's got a couple of decent running backs and wide receivers with him. The Orange has a decent defense with six starters back. Western Michigan has covered 15 of their last 26 games including four of their last six as an underdog. This is a rare opportunity that they have a chance to win outright on Friday night.

Ball State went 2-10 last year after their offense was ravaged by injuries. Riley Neal, James Gilbert and Corey Lacanaria all were medical redshirts last year. That's their number one QB, RB and WR. The team is switching to a 3-4 defense which means some growing pains could be expected. The offense is capable of scoring points and should be able to do so on Central Connecticut. CCSU was picked to win the NEC and has several good offensive players. Jacob Dolegala has thrown for nearly 6,000 yards and is the signal caller for an offense that averaged 185 rushing yards last season and allowed only nine sacks in the regular season. The defense has some talent led by Kenneth Keen, Tajik Bagley and Chris Tinkham. The Blue Devils lost their FBS game last year 50-7 at Syracuse and then proceeded to lose two more before railing off eight wins on their way to the playoffs. To me this one should be a bit of a shootout with both teams being able to move the ball well on the other.

There are so many similarities in this game as both teams want to run it but can pass it as well. The Dukes won this matchup last year on the road so you know the Bison will want revenge as JMU snapped their championship run. One of the advantages that the team from the CAA has is that ND State has injury issues in their secondary and will be without one of their starting corners. His replacement is making his first start and you know Bryan Schor will pick on that. I think this one will be close and even if JMU doesn't win, then this will be a FG contest. I'd also consider the under. 

I'm probably falling into Vegas' trap with this one, but the Hokies offense won't be scaring anyone. When Cam Phillips announced that he was not playing, Virginia Tech's O took a huge hit. The rest of the receiver group is pretty mediocre and the running backs are just alright even after Travon McMillan's departure. The Hokies defense has struggled with the athletic opponents that they've faced. OSU's offense is one of the best in the country with Mason Rudolph and James Washington as a potent duo. The problem with them has been their defense and questionable motivation here. The Cowboys were expecting big things so who knows if they'll be happy playing in Orlando a couple of days before New Years. I think that's the only reason there hasn't been more of a line move. I'll take the bait though and the better team. 

I think this is a good spot for Virginia who is in their first bowl game in awhile. The Cavaliers have experience against the triple option having already beaten Georgia Tech. In that game they did struggle a bit against it, but the Yellow Jackets defense had their issues with the Hoos. Any time you have extra time to prep for the option is great. Navy is coming off a tough loss to Army and has limped down the stretch. Who knows what they are thinking entering this one. UVA's defense isn't bad and their offense is inconsistent at best. It is a Navy home game, but there will be plenty of Cavalier fans there. I think they win outright and will gladly take the points. 

Quite simply, this is a playoff elimination game and these two teams couldn't be going in more different directions. The Seahawks have lost two straight and are coming off an undressing at the hands of the Rams 42-7. Russell Wilson had his worst game of the season and the once vaunted defense was sniping at each other through the media afterwards. Dallas, meanwhile, has won three straight and is getting a highly motivated Ezekiel Elliott back in the backfield. The defense has improved with the health of Sean Lee improving. The Seahawks are 10-14 ATS the last three seasons on the road. I think the Cowboys roll in this one.

I guess I shouldn't still be questioning the Rams, but I think the Titans are worth a look here. Tennessee's defense is holding opponents to 87.2 yards per contest on the ground so it might be tough sledding for Todd Gurley. Jared Goff has thrown for less then 250 yards in three straight and four of his last five games. This is a team also playing their third road game over their last four weeks and is coming off an emotional 42-7 win over the Seahawks in Seattle. Tennessee is at a low point with two straight losses to Arizona and San Francisco in which they didn't show much of a pulse. That's why I think we're getting some value here considering the Titans are in the playoff mix and have the talent to keep this game close. This could be a flat spot for the Rams.

Philly needs one more win to clinch a bye and two more potentially to get the number one seed overall. They'll have to do so without their starting quarterback who got hurt against the Rams. Now Nick Foles takes over and that means a bigger emphasis on the run game and the defense. The Giants are allowing nearly 400 yards of offense per game and have not managed much offensively. Eli Manning's return last week seemed like a feel good story when in reality it produced the team's fourth straight effort of 20 points or less. The first game between these two back in September was Jake Elliott's coming out party. It also featured Odell Beckham who has been long gone. To me, until I see something from the Eagles, I'll fade them especially at this bloated number.

I hate myself for considering this, but I think the Browns might be worth a look. I've said on twitter that if you bet on this team and complain afterwards then you deserve it. Unfortunately, now I'll be in this situation because I think this is the right spot to play them. The Cleveland offense is showing pulses and I don't know if the Ravens have someone to shut down Josh Gordon. Baltimore is coming off a tough loss to the Steelers in Pittsburgh where they allowed Ben Roethlisberger to throw for over 500 yards. If DeShone Kizer can just limit the mistakes, they have a shot to win. Baltimore's offense doesn't scare me very much and Cleveland's defense is showing flashes of improvement. They've held two of their last four opponents to less then 20 points.

You've got a classic case of a good offense vs. a good defense. The Rams enter this one having lost three of their last four. They've scored 94 points in their last two games, but the defense let them down during this losing skid. The Rams can run it and throw it with Michael Gallup doing a lot of work. The defense is pretty good against the pass which Marshall is alright at doing. The Thundering Herd's offense doesn't scare anyone and I don't know if they can take advantage of the porous defense opposite them. Marshall lost four of their last five entering this one. I don't think they'll be able to stay on the field long enough to not put pressure on the defense. This might be the best offense Marshall will have faced all year long. 

JMU is the defending champion and is coming off a mediocre effort against Weber State. The Dukes passing attack had it's issues, but they also came through when it mattered. Bryan Schor had an up and down effort with a couple of interceptions, but he also got Riley Stapleton involved. Ultimately though, the run game got things going and will continue to do so. South Dakota State can be run on and that's ultimately what will do them in. The Jackrabbits offense is very good with Taryn Christion under center. They have not run into a defense as good as the Dukes. JMU is allowing just 3.8 yards per play defensively. They are more equipped to win a shootout. I also think homefield is nice for JMU. They are the better team so I'll take them to win. 

The New Orleans Bowl features North Texas and Troy. We've made a lot of money on the Mean Green who have had to adjust their offense without Jeffrey Wilson. This means Mason Fine has had to do more and they've won five of their last six. The team played poorly against FAU in the title game, but that was a true road contest. The defense has had problems with the run, but has played the pass pretty well. Troy's banged up with four players who got hurt in the conference title. Cornerback Blace Brown, safety Kris Weatherspoon and wide receiver Emanuel Thompson all are out. The Trojans have covered just four of their last 10 games as a favorite this season. I really like Seth Littrell as a coach and as long as I can get the 7.5, I'll take the underdog. 

That sound you hear is members of the national media jumping off the Eagles bandwagon after they lost to the Seahawks last week. Philly couldn't contain Russell Wilson and made some rare mistakes on offense. Now they have stayed out West all week long and will take on a Rams team that has been a great story. Los Angeles has won two straight since getting "exposed" against Minnesota. The run game has struggled and should continue to do so against an Eagles team that is very stingy against it. There are stories about the Rams practicing with a silent count as Philly will be bringing plenty of fans to this one. I think we get a really focused effort and a win from the road team who will be eager to fix what went wrong last week.

This is purely a situational play as I've got to wonder what the Bengals have left after their horrendous loss to the Steelers on Monday night at home. Not only did they fall in that one, but Adam Jones, Joe Mixon and Vontaze Burfict all got hurt and are questionable for this weekend. It bears watching to see their status because those are some important pieces. The Bears have lost five straight and have not played well either as of late. That's what makes it tough to make this play is that Chicago's offense has managed just 287 yards the last two games total. Their defense isn't awful so they should be able to keep them in this game. One situation in our favor is that the Bears have covered 10 of their last 12 games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points. With such a low total, we may see a close game since Vegas isn't expecting much.

The Giants finally got rid of Ben McAdoo and now Eli Manning is back under center so I'm expecting a better effort now at home as they take on Dallas. The Cowboys snapped a three game losing streak with a 38-14 effort against the Redskins. In that one, they discovered the run game while Dak Prescott passed for 93 yards. The defense forced four turnovers, but I really don't think they are that good. Sean Lee is probably coming back which is good for them, but not enough. Manning is playing his last few games at home and as a member of the Giants most likely. New York has covered 15 of their last 25 at home in this series. I think they can win this one outright on Sunday as we get a really motivated team under "new" leadership.

Minnesota is wrapping up three straight on the road as they take on Carolina on Sunday. The Vikings have been incredible, but I think they become a bit road weary in this one. As a matter of fact, they've played just one true home game since October 29th when they were in Europe. The defense has been great especially against the run. The offense has not had a turnover the last three weeks. Carolina has won four of their last five entering this one. This offense is dealing with a lack of true weapons especially since Greg Olsen is not 100% once again. It's a concern that the usually strong Panthers defense has allowed 21 points or more in three straight, but at home this team is very good. They have covered nine of their last 12 games as an underdog with seven straight up wins. I think there's some value here with the home dog.

The Eagles start a three game road trip with the Seahawks on Sunday Night Football. Philly has the best record in football and is putting up nearly 32 points per game. They've also feasted on a lot of bad opponents. Now Seattle's defense isn't the same without Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman, but it's still a tough place to play and there's still some talent in the front seven. Russell Wilson is also one of the best quarterbacks that the Eagles have seen this season. He can beat you on the ground and through the air. Even though the Seahawks are a one dimensional team, I still think they can play ball control and keep this thing close. They've been a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points just 26 times since 1992 and have covered 17 times. I think this is a bit of an overreaction.

I did the preview for this matchup for Athlon Sports and there I predicted an outright Arizona win. Basically, I think this is a trap game for a young Rams team before a huge contest at home against the Eagles. Arizona's defense is capable of holding this team down and they'll be motivated after an embarrassing 33-0 effort in October overseas. I think this is a lot of points and I can only hope Blaine Gabbert keeps the mistakes to a minimum.

In one of the least watched and least important games of the week, I've managed to find some value. The 49ers fly east as they take on the Bears. San Fran fans are hyped over Jimmy Garoppolo's final drive which led to a touchdown. They've been pretty bad offensively and not very good defensively either. You could say the same thing about the Bears who are coming off an uninspiring effort in Philly against the Eagles. Chicago's run game produced just six yards on 14 carries. Still, it's probably the best unit of any group in this contest. The Bears have played "well" at home with wins over the Steelers and Panthers there. San Francisco has covered just seven of their last 21 road games. I think the Bears win this one.

The Bulldogs have been covering machines going 9-2 ATS this season including five of their six road games. They took the home matchup between these two last week 28-17 in a game that saw them succeed through the air and hold Boise down offensively. FSU has road wins at San Diego State, Wyoming and Hawaii as of late so the atmosphere won't be that intimidating. This figures to be a lower scoring game potentially with two good defenses and a Boise team that has struggled at home to cover. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS the last three seasons at home. I'm sure both teams held stuff back last week, but I don't know if the change of venue is worth that many points. This is a one possession game. 

The AAC title game is up for grabs as UCF hosts Memphis. The Golden Knights took this game 40-13 at home back in September by virtue of an offense that put up 350 yards on the ground and over 600 total. It was a rough effort for Riley Ferguson. Since then, Memphis has averaged over 50 points per game and is steamrolling opponents. They had road wins at UConn, Houston and Tulsa and have to be feeling confident about their chances. The Golden Knights are coming off an emotional 49-42 win over rival USF last time out. They've also been playing well offensively, but last week's game showed that their secondary has some issues potentially. The other story is that Coach Frost is indirectly being mentioned a lot for the Nebraska job. Focus could be an issue for a team whose coach is potentially going elsewhere. I'll take the Tigers with the hook and be happy. 

Last week we were on the Vikings, who exposed the Rams and this week I'm going to look at that same Los Angeles team to do the same to the Saints. New Orleans extended its streak to eight in a row after a come-from-behind victory at home over a banged-up Redskins squad. This Saints team saw their defense get beaten up and I think the Rams can do the same, especially with Todd Gurley leading the way on the ground. New Orleans hasn’t necessarily faced a potent offense, which skews the defense’s statistics a bit. Give Rams defensive coordinator Wade Phillips some time to prep and he'll have a good game plan to counter Drew Brees and the Saints’ running game. Los Angeles has won four of its last five and I expect Gurley to be even more involved moving forward. I think the Rams hold serve at home in this one.

You can't get any lower on the Broncos, which is why I'll take a chance on them Sunday. Paxton Lynch is getting the start and he might be the best of the three options when it comes to Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler. I saw a stat on Twitter that said quarterbacks have a 113.2 passer rating when facing the Raiders this season. Oakland's defense has been terrible. The offense also has been inconsistent, scoring fewer than 20 points in five of the past seven games. Yes, Denver's defense has had a bad couple of weeks, but I still believe in this unit, for some reason. The Broncos also have won 16 of their last 26 straight up in Oakland. I think there's a chance they can do it again.

I'll take the bait and take the home team in this one. BYU is coming off an embarrassing 16-10 home loss to UMass in which the offense had four turnovers and the defense fell just a bit short. BYU's offense has shown a little bit of spunk at times, but they've also put forth five efforts of 17 points or less in their last seven games. Hawaii has lost four straight games and has not shown much defensive effort in any of those games. With this being a late game in Hawaii with a team who has nothing to play for, you could really see an unfocused effort. I just don't know how anyone can trust BYU at all, certainly as a favorite. They were a favorite at ECU and lost.

UNLV has won three of their last four entering the big rivalry game against Nevada. The Running Rebels have been rolling on the ground with two 300 yard efforts in the last month or so. Their defense isn't great, but they've made stops when they've had to. The last few weeks they've been better against the pass. Nevada has lost four of their last five and they've struggled with stopping anyone on defense. Since the end of September, five opponents have scored 40 points or more. UNLV has covered 11 of their last 17 road games winning five of those outright. I think they are the better team in this one. 

Well sadly I get only one more chance to fade UTEP as they play at UAB. The Miners have the worst offense statistically in the league and have not covered their last five games. They've lost by 35 at North Texas, 27 at MTSU, 24 at Southern Miss and 14 at Army. UAB has been one of the best stories in college football and have won three of their last four. In a similar situation we faded Rice at UAB and the Blazers rewarded us with a 52-21 win. I think they will want to get a huge win in front of their fans before the bowl game. UTEP has covered just two of their 11 games overall. I'll fade them one more time. 

This is a really odd line to me. Yes, Wake Forest has been impressive offensively, but they are extremely leaky as a defense. The Demon Deacons are allowing over 200 yards per game on the ground. They've given up 24 points or more in every game since Florida State in late September. The offense is clicking even without Greg Dortch who made a difference out wide. Duke snapped their losing streak last week in a big way beating Georgia Tech 43-20. In that game, they realized how effective the run game can be when you stick with it. The defense will be glad to face a passing team after two straight weeks of the option. Duke has covered 11 of their last 19 games as an underdog winning eight of them outright. The Demon Deacons are a lot better but this might be a bit of an overreaction. The road team could be a live dog in this one. 

Well folks, we made it to the end of the regular season and now it's rivalry time in the conference. You know the numbers so I don't need to rehash the streak and how things have gone for the Hoos. While the record is different, the two teams on the field aren't that different. Tech has better offensive numbers, but they also had an easier schedule. It's very hard for me to trust this side of the ball. They've scored just 76 points over their last four contests as Josh Jackson has been inconsistent. Last week, the Hokies won 20-14 at home against Pittsburgh and it was uninspiring. UVA gave me my lock of the year last week as we got an unfocused Miami team for long enough that they couldn't overcome the 19/20 point spread. I have a feeling that Kurt Benkert is going to play one of his better games against a Tech secondary that is very beatable. Tech may have won 20 of their last 25 in this series, but they've only covered 15 of those contests. The total is way too high for this one so I think the Under is worth a look and so is the home team. UVA has covered 17 of their last 27 games as an underdog. I don't know if we will even need the points because I think the Hoos can win outright. That said, as long as it stays at 7 or above, I love the Cavs. The other factor to consider is that it probably won't sound like Blacksburg as I'm assuming most UVA fans have kept their tickets for this one instead of selling them in disgust. 

The Cowboys couldn't be much lower right now after they got crushed at home by the Eagles. They've lost two straight scoring just 16 points against Atlanta and Philly. The defense has been bad and the offense can't get much going. Tyron Smith is returning and it's important considering you can run on San Diego. The Chargers are one of the worst run defenses in the league despite the solid front line with Bosa and Ingram. Alfred Morris was able to find some holes against the Eagles. San Diego has to fly to Dallas on a short turn around and they've lost two of their last three. LA has been a terrible favorite failing to cover in 10 of their last 15 games as a favorite. I think Dallas can win this one outright, but I'll take the points. 

The Bills benched Tyrod Taylor for Nathan Peterman thinking that will be some magic elixir to fix their issues as of late. Taylor is not the reason that the defense has been gashed. The acquisition of Kelvin Benjamin helped, but the signal caller also needs more time to build chemistry with him. Los Angeles has lost two straight, but each were very close contests. They need to get Melvin Gordon going and I think it happens against this defense that has allowed over 450 yards on the ground the last two weeks. To me, this is a blowup spot for the home team who could take advantage of a Bills team wondering what the front office is doing.

This is a huge matchup in the NFC as the Vikings host the Rams. Both teams have put up good defensive numbers while their offenses have been pleasant surprises. The Vikes are holding opponents to just 81.3 rushing yards per game which will be important in stopping Todd Gurley. Gurley's success has been able to help Jared Goff do well. Minnesota's run game has not failed as much as we thought when Dalvin Cook went down because Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have picked up the slack. Case Keenum is playing good football, but there's also a chance we see Teddy Bridgewater who is healthy and ready in the wings. Minnesota has covered 17 of their last 22 home games and 29 of their last 42 overall. I guess it's weird to say considering they are 7-2, but I'm not sure if the Rams are for real. They've played a pretty easy schedule so far. I'll take the home team in this one.

The Redskins are a hard team to figure out. They went to Seattle two weeks ago and clamped down on the Seahawks holding them to just 14 points. Last week they scored 30 on a great Vikings defense, but allowed 38 in the process. I think we get a better effort from this defense who is healthier now. The offensive line is also pretty much intact helping them out in giving Kirk Cousins some time. The Saints current stretch of defensive success the last four weeks showed them shutting down the likes of Brett Hundley, Mitch Trubisky, Jameis Winston and Tyrod Taylor/Nathan Peterman. I think they get a step up here in quality and there will be some struggles. The Redskins can shut down the run and force Drew Brees to do a little more. Washington is 17-12 ATS the last three seasons as an underdog.

Wake Forest is bowl eligible after a 64-43 win at Syracuse. They are home after a stretch of five of seven on the road so it should be nice for them. The offense has been rolling despite the fact that they lost Greg Dortch who was their best weapon. The defense has not been great though as they have allowed 28 points or more in five straight. NC State won in Chestnut Hill 17-14 last time out and now hits the road again before the rivalry contest against North Carolina. I'm tempted again to go with the home team like we did last week. The Deacs are playing good football right now. The question is if they can make the stops when necessary. Wake has covered nine of 12 at home in this series although NC State has won the last two outright. The Deacs are 21-13 ATS the last three seasons. NC State has covered just five of their last 14 as an underdog. I'll go with the home team although I'd like it more at 1.

I like UTSA in this situation with more to play for and the better offense and defense. Meep Meep has lost two straight after winning two in a row. Dalton Sturm has had some poor numbers as of late, but I think it sets up nicely for him to succeed in this one. UTSA has a defense that's actually done pretty well in this conference. Marshall has lost two of their last three games and now this game is meaningless to them as a bowl bid has been locked in. The defense has been a bit leaky as of late. To me, the home team is the better play in this one.

The Monarchs are trying to make a late push for a bowl spot as they host Rice on Saturday. ODU beat Charlotte and FIU the last two weeks and did so with timely offense and just enough defense to survive. Their freshman quarterback is getting good reps in and the run game has been rolling. In comes Rice who has one win and that was back in September. They don't do much offensively and the defense has been horrendous. They allowed 42 to La Tech, 52 to UAB and 43 to Southern Miss the last three weeks. I know this is a big spread, but I like ODU to win this one rather easily as I just don't think Rice is mentally in it anymore.

I've prided myself on not being like other handicappers out there who scream their phone numbers and yell at you over the radio or internet. I also don't throw around lock or "game of the month" often, but to me, this is the perfect setup for the Cavaliers to cover. There's no doubt how good Miami is, but you are asking them to give a crap about a noon game after playing Virginia Tech and Notre Dame in primetime the last two weeks. The U won by eight as an 18 point favorite at home against Syracuse and by five at UNC as a 21 point favorite so it's been shown that they can play down to their competition. In comes a UVA squad that has lost three of their last four and on a normal Saturday would probably be blown out in this one. The Cavs have covered five of their last six in Miami and the sleepiness factor makes me think it moves to 6-1 in their last seven. This is my favorite play of the ACC Football season.

It's almost like I’m calling this "Show Me Sunday" because I don't believe the Cowboys’ defense has suddenly turned the corner and is no longer a bad unit. Dallas held San Francisco, Washington and Kansas City all under 20 points over the last three weeks while registering double-digit victories against each. Dallas will go home to host NFC East leader Philadelphia as the first of the three straight home dates after this, so there's a shot we may not get a focused effort against a desperate Falcons team. Atlanta has lost four of its last five and just finished up a stretch of three straight on the road. Matt Ryan got Julio Jones involved more last time out, but it wasn't enough in a three-point loss at Carolina. The best part about locking this in now is that you may get the bonus of Ezekiel Elliott not playing if his latest appeal is denied later in the week

No one would have thought that the Jets would have had the better record at this point before the season began. New York has been a pleasant story with Josh McCown leading the offense and the defense doing work as well. The Jets have lost three of four but are coming off of a convincing victory over the Bills last Thursday. Tampa Bay has lost five straight and will be without Jameis Winston (injury) and Mike Evans (suspension). Yet, I still don't feel like I'm ready to back the Jets as a road favorite. Tampa Bay's defense has been awful, but may get cornerback Brent Grimes back. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be under center and still has DeSean Jackson out wide along with some decent running backs. I might be guilty of trying to stay with a bad team too long, but I think the Buccaneers are a live dog.

The Saints hit the road to play the Bills in a game that will feature temperatures around 40 degrees. New Orleans has won six straight after an 0-2 start. The Saints have been able to run the ball and take some pressure off of Drew Brees. A negative development is that the offense has started to turn the ball over with four straight games of at least two. The defense is putting up improved numbers, but I'm still not buying in. Over this span, the Saints really haven't seen too many good offenses with the likes of Tampa Bay, Green Bay (sans Aaron Rodgers) and Chicago the opponents. Buffalo lost 34-21 last Thursday to the Jets. Despite that the Bills have won four of their last six. LeSean McCoy should bounce back and this will be the first game for Kelvin Benjamin with this new team. Tight end Charles Clay also is working his back from injury, so it will be interesting to see this offense once all of the pieces are together. I'm not buying the Saints as a road team outside yet, especially in Upstate New York.

The Academy is hosting Wyoming after they lost 21-0 to Army at home. The Falcons had won three straight before then and get an enigmatic Wyoming team. The Cowboys have won five of their last six, but they are doing so without much work from Josh Allen who was one of the most highly touted QBs in the country. Air Force's triple option was temporarily stymied, but I have a feeling that will change this weekend. Wyoming's defensive tackle position is very banged up and that's important to stopping it. The Cowboys are 3-12  on the road straight up the last three years. I think they lose this one.

I've enjoyed fading UTEP and Rice when the situation arises. UTEP has not won a game yet this season and the offense continues to be dismal. They've scored just 31 points over the last four weeks and are not putting up much of a fight. Ironically, the defense is actually not playing that badly, but they are on the field too much. North Texas is quite the opposite as they are putting up boatloads of points. The worry is the Mean Green defense which is a bit leaky, but everyone has extra motivation after they were smashed by UTEP on the road. The team swears they haven't forgotten it. I think this is a blowout. 

The Bobcats have shown a little fight as of late despite only picking up one win. Their offense has put up over 500 yards the last two contests with Damian Williams under center. The defense has even shown flashes of good play this season. In comes a Georgia State team who has won five of their last six, but is playing their last road game of the regular season. They've played some close contests as the offense has sputtered as of late. They have scored just 52 points over their last three and the defense has sprung some leaks from time to time. To me, the home team is going to be a live dog in a matchup that could feature a lot of points. 

How is NC State going to handle losing two straight to Notre Dame and Clemson? Now they head to Chestnut Hill where weird things happen. Boston College has won three straight including a win over Florida State last time out. The offense has scored 28 points or more in four of their last five games and is rested and ready to go. NC State is playing their third road game over their last four weeks and the once strong defense is letting them down. This is a spot where the home team is going to be a lot more motivated then the road team who much like Virginia Tech has to find motivation from somewhere. BC is 5-1 against the spread against the rest of the ACC while NC State has failed to cover in nine of their last 13 games as a road favorite of 3 points or less. I think the home team is a live dog in this one. 

I backed the Pack two weeks ago at home against New Orleans and it didn't work out. Two weeks later, I'm going to back them again at home fresh off a bye week. Brett Hundley is better then he played against the Saints and with two weeks to prepare, I think we see a better effort. Aaron Jones is running the ball well and has taken a stranglehold of the position. The Packers defense is on par with the Lions although they are more vulnerable on the ground which Detroit won't be able to take advantage of. The Lions have lost three straight and four of their last five games as Matt Stafford has hit a bit of a rough patch. Detroit didn't capitalize on their red zone trips at home against Pittsburgh last time out and now heads to Green Bay. The Lions have failed to cover in 15 of their last 21 games as a road favorite of three points or less. I think the Packers bounce back. 

To me, it's kind of a joke that the Raiders are favored in this one. They've lost four of their last five as the defense continues to fail and the offense doesn't do enough. The addition of Marshawn Lynch hasn't added what the team thought it would and Derek Carr at times is doing a little bit too much. The defense has sprung too many leaks for my liking either. Now Miami isn't much better right now as they trade Jay Ajayi and are coming off a 40-0 loss at Baltimore. This snapped the team's three game win streak. The defense has played pretty well for the most part while Jay Cutler returns to the lineup along with DeVante Parker most likely. Miami should be able to take advantage of Oakland's banged up secondary. I think they win this one outright so I'll gladly take the points.

I know that the Titans are coming off a bye week, but so is Baltimore who played last Thursday in their romp over Miami. The Ravens defense is getting healthier and it's showing on the field as they held the Dolphins to less then 200 yards of total offense. Their own offense has been an issue although Alex Collins is taking over the reins at running back and Danny Woodhead is working his way back as well. Tennessee has been held to 14 points or less in three of their last four and have been relatively unimpressive on both sides of the ball. They should have lost in Cleveland two weeks ago and are not looking like the team we thought they would be. Tennessee has covered just 14 of their last 39 games and eight of their last 30 against the rest of the AFC. I think this is a lower scoring game and the underdog is better suited for those.

This one is going to be a lower scoring game. Denver's defense is good enough to hold down the Philly offense and despite all the situations that go against them, I think that this is a lot of points. 

Boise State has won four straight and five of their last six entering Saturday's game against Nevada. The Broncos defense has been fantastic, but I think Nevada will stress them a bit. The Wolf Pack has scored 35 points or more in three straight and are doing it with the pass and just enough run as well. Their defense isn't great, but Boise isn't going to wow you with their offense. They also have a bigger game on the road next week at Colorado State that they need their focus for. The Pack has covered in three straight games. Boise has covered just two of their last 16 home games and 11 of their last 31 as a favorite. I think the road team is live in this one.

The Green Wave has lost three straight, but should bounce back in this one against Cincinnati. Tulane's getting a key player back on offense and defense which will help both ailing units. They got smacked by Memphis after losing a tough close game with South Florida. When they are on, the triple optionesque offense is tough to stop. They steamrolled Tulsa and beat Army as well. The defense is capable of more and should shut down Cincinnati. The Bearcats have lost five straight and it's because of a defense that has allowed 30 points or more in each of those games. They don't stop the run and have had problems with the pass. Tulane has covered seven of their last nine as a favorite and nine of their last 16 home games. Cincy has covered just 12 of their last 33 overall. I think the home team gets an easy win.

Things are looking a little better for Nebraska who is coming off a late comeback win at Purdue. They threw for over 400 yards in that one and saw the defense make just enough stops to win. Tanner Lee is talking about being more comfortable in the offense and he'll face one of the worst secondaries in the conference. Northwestern was gashed by Sparty last week in their multiple overtime game. They've won three in a row, but how much is in the tank after that close win over MSU. Northwestern has a win at Maryland, but also lost at Wisconsin and Duke. The Wildcats will rely on their ground game here, but Nebraska has shown in the past that they can slow that down. I think the home team continues their momentum and gets the win.

Fading Rice continues to be good business for us for the most part this season. The Owls are terrible offensively. The 28 points they scored in their home loss to Louisiana Tech was slightly less then the 29 points they put up combined in the previous three games. The Rice defense is pretty bad especially on the road. UAB has been a fantastic story after bringing football back. They have won three of their last four and will be glad to be home where they've covered every game this season. They like to run the ball which they should in this one while the defense has also been very good for the most part. I'll pretty much always fade Rice especially on the road. 

Florida State has lost two straight and four of their last six as they continue to spiral down the drain. Quotes coming out of Tallahassee have the players wondering about the other players and who they are playing for. The offense is not doing much other then turning the ball over. The defense is also playing poorly despite the fact that they were supposed to be the stronger unit. Syracuse has won two of their last three and played well in Miami in an eight point loss. Eric Dungey threw four INTs in that game, but that's the only contest he's really struggled in. The Orange's defense also makes stops when they need to. It's an underrated unit. The line move scares me because people are almost blindly backing the public team. To me, Florida State is giving up on the season and I think Syracuse adds to their misery.

It's a big time battle in Boca Raton as the Owls host Marshall. FAU is 5-3 by virtue of a ground game that's averaging nearly 300 yards per game. They are keeping the ball and not allowing their porous defense to get involved. The problem is that Marshall's D has been good against the run for the most part outside of last week's loss to FIU. The Thundering Herd have a balanced offense of their own and a better defense between the two. They've won at Cincinnati, Charlotte and Middle Tennessee. The Owls are blitzing opponents so that's a concern here, but they've also beaten up on some of the weaker opponents in this conference. FAU has covered just four of their last 16 home games, but that was when they weren't as good as a team. As long as this stays at 7 or above, I think the road team can keep things close in this one 

The Buccaneers were the preseason chic pick and unfortunately they have not lived up to it. Tampa's two wins were at home against the Bears and the Giants. The defense is not in good form right now allowing 30 points or more three times this season although all of those were on the road. Now they come home in a spot where little is expected of them. Jameis Winston is putting up good numbers through the air although they need to cut down the turnovers. Carolina has lost two straight and Cam Newton is struggling with consistency and answering questions from the media. The defense has been it's typically strong self, but it hasn't been enough during this losing streak. Last year, the Bucs won two close low scoring games forcing seven Carolina turnovers along the way. I don't like to go against the line move because usually those guys are right, but I think we're getting Tampa in a good spot. Carolina is playing their fourth road game this month and I think it catches up to them here.

The mismatch of all mismatches on paper, but this screams situational play with the road team. First off, rain is in the forecast which may play a factor in the playcalling for the Eagles who have been very balanced. Philly is coming off a highly emotional Monday night game against the Redskins and have a bigger test next week against the Broncos. They also lost Jason Peters and Jordan Hicks who are two valuable cogs to the offense and defense. San Francisco has lost five games by three points or less this season and that includes at Seattle, Arizona and Washington. Of concern is the amount of travel that they have done as of late, but I think they get to play an unfocused Eagles team that is hearing how good they are from all angles. As an Eagles fan, I hope this isn't a sweat, but I think it will be.

The Raiders are heading east to play the Bills on Sunday and everyone is back on their bandwagon after the home win last Thursday over the Chiefs. As Lee Corso says, not so fast my friends. That victory snapped a four game losing streak and showed an Oakland team that couldn't run and struggled at times to stop the pass. Marshawn Lynch will miss the contest due to suspension. The Bills have been a huge surprise sitting at 4-2 on the season. They are coming off an impressive comeback win over Tampa Bay at home. Jordan Matthews is getting healthy and giving Tyrod Taylor another weapon. Shady McCoy should have his way in this one against a vulnerable Raiders D. Yes, Buffalo has shown some leaks against the pass allowing their last two opponents to put up over 300 yards through the air, but I think they match up well with Oakland. The money move is with the road team. I think the home team takes this one.

The Boilers are glad to be home after a rough trip through Wisconsin and Rutgers. The public is streaming in with money on Nebraska clearly because Purdue lost at Rutgers. What's lost in that game is that while they scored only 12 points, the team racked up nearly 500 yards of offense. They've defended homefield pretty nicely outside of a 28-10 loss to Michigan. The defense has been alright and might be able to force some turnovers of Tanner Lee. Nebraska has lost their last two home games 94-31 against Wisconsin and Ohio State. Their only wins have come against Arkansas State, Rutgers and Illinois. One has to wonder the team's psyche after two weeks hearing how awful they are. Nebraska has covered just 14 of their last 33 games. I'll bet on the home team especially if the line keeps coming down. 

Vandy's coming off a week off and now they play South Carolina who has won three of their last four. The Gamecocks have not exactly been an offensive juggernaut scoring 20 points or less in four of their last five. They don't run it well consistently which is how you take advantage of the Commodores. The numbers are ugly for Vandy's defense, but if you face Alabama, Georgia, Florida and Ole Miss, you'd struggle too. The last two years this game has been played in the teens which means the underdog always has a shot. South Carolina has covered half of their last 16 home games. I think with this number around seven, i'll take the road team who I'll hope will use Ralph Webb early and often. 

Georgia Southern just fired their head coach as they continue to struggle with their offense. On the road, they've lost by 34 to Auburn, 35 to Indiana and 35 at UMass. They have turned the ball over three times or more in three of their last four games. Troy is a monster of a team with two double digit wins including last time out 34-10 at Georgia State. They've got Idaho next at home so I don't see a lookahead factor here. Also, Troy has never beaten Georgia Southern so I think they win this one and win it easily. 

Sparty has won four straight and is looking at a huge game at home against Penn State next week. In between is a road game at Northwestern to play the Wildcats who are coming off a home win over Iowa. MSU is playing their third road game in their last four weeks. The offense hasn't been that great, but the defense has been carrying them. Northwestern has won two straight and will go as Justin Jackson goes on the ground. Their defense has been very good and I'm just not convinced that Michigan State won't have one eye on next week. The Wildcats have covered 10 of their last 16 games as an underdog and 14 of their last 21 Big 10 games. Sparty is 8-15 ATS as a favorite the last three seasons. Give me the home team. 

The Wahoos came back to earth last week after laying an egg against Boston College. They played terrible in all aspects of the game. Now they need to beat Pittsburgh to get bowl eligibility. The Panthers are coming off a road win at Duke. Their defense is pretty awful allowing over 400 yards per game. The offense has failed to find consistency especially at quarterback. They've already lost to Oklahoma State and NC State at home while struggling to beat Youngstown State there. The Hoos are getting Malcolm Cook back in the lineup and that will strength up the defense. I think Jordan Ellis goes wild and UVA gets the win on Saturday. 

I think we're getting the Broncos in a good spot right here as they go for the season sweep of the Chargers. Denver is coming off a tough performance at home over the Giants where they threw for 366 yards, but three turnovers did them in. The defense was fine although the run did beat them. The Broncos won the season opener between these two 24-21 at home and was able to do so because of a late FG miss. The Chargers have won two straight and now head "home" where they've lost all three games. Los Angeles has played enough defense and gotten enough from Philip Rivers to win these last two. LA has covered just five of their last 19 contests at home and four of their last 14 as a favorite. There's a modest concern about Denver looking ahead to Monday Night in Kansas City next week, but the loss to the Giants may be preventing that.

This is the ultimate contrarian play that fits in with this current season's trends. People are completely writing off Green Bay after they lost Aaron Rodgers. Yes, Brett Hundley did not look good against the Vikings, but that was a tough defense on the road. Now he gets a full week to gameplan against a Charmin soft New Orleans defense that is allowing almost 270 yards per game through the air. This might be my favorite play of the weekend. Let's remember that one of the reasons the Saints didn't choke a huge lead to the Lions at home was because of five turnovers forced. That won't happen on the road in Green Bay where the gameplan will be conservative I'm sure. Green Bay's defense has not allowed a single quarterback to throw over 250 yards. The Packers have been a home underdog of 3.5 to 7 points just 10 times since 1992 covering seven of those. New Orleans has been a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points just once the last three seasons. I think Green Bay can win it outright, but I'll take the points. 

The Jets nearly knocked off the Patriots at home last week. They did so outgaining New England behind Josh McCown throwing for over 300 yards. New York beat the Dolphins at home 20-6 back in week three by holding them to just 225 yards of total offense. To me, we are slightly over-exaggerating how good the Jets are. Their only road win was by three at Cleveland. Things have normalized a bit for the Dolphins who have won their last two games including a victory in Atlanta. They've been able to use Jay Ajayi and the run game to minimize the impact of Jay Cutler. Miami's defense has played well especially against the run. New York is 5-9-4 in their last 18 road games against the spread. They've been a nice story, but I don't think Sunday goes their way.

Another week and no Andrew Luck for the Colts. He had a setback this week and will not be returning it feels for awhile still. Jacoby Brissett has been playing better, but he will struggle against the Jaguars. Jacksonville is the perfect picture of this 2017 NFL season. They crushed the Ravens overseas, but came home and lost to the Jets. After that, they won in Pittsburgh before falling at home to the Rams. Leonard Fournette has been fantastic and it's taking pressure off Blake Bortles who still isn't very good. The Colts defense was ravaged in Tennessee and now has one less day to prepare for the Jags. The team's home games were three point wins over Cleveland and San Fran to go with a three point loss to the Cardinals. To me, as long as this stays below three, the road team is the way to go.

Boise State has to be flying high after two straight road wins at BYU and San Diego State. Their offense has been solid all season long, but they have struggled throwing the ball. Five of their six games saw them put up less then 250 yards through the air. The defense has been fantastic, but is due for a letdown. Ironically, they've had one of their two worst performances as a group at home against Virginia. Wyoming has won three straight and is coming off a road win at Utah State in which the defense forced five turnovers. The Cowboys need to get more from Josh Allen who has been the much hyped quarterback. The defense has what it takes to keep this game closer then you think. Boise has covered just two of their last 15 at home and 10 of their last 29 as a favorite. I think this one is closer and probably a one score game. 

There are several factors in play for this wager. Wake Forest had two weeks to prepare for Georgia Tech's triple option. They are coming off two close losses to Florida State and Clemson and have their QB and RB healthy for this one. The offense has cooled off after a hot start, but they can go on time consuming drives. Defensively, no one is really going to slow down GT's triple option, but with extra time to prepare, it always helps. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a tough one point loss to Miami and have a road trip to Clemson coming up next week. It's hard to believe that Paul Johnson's team will ever look ahead, but it's something small to consider. Wake has covered 10 of their last 16 in this series. I think they have a shot to keep it close in this one. 

Two of the worst teams in college football play as East Carolina hosts BYU. ECU has one of the worst defenses in the country and has allowed 55 points four times already this season. The only positive I guess you can point to is that they have a decent offense and should be able to put up some points in this one. They managed 31 against South Florida and 41 against UConn already this season. BYU has lost six straight and has scored just 60 points over that span. They can't run it and they can't really throw it well either. The team has managed to put up less then 200 yards per game through the air this seson. Their defense is just as bad in places AND it's their second straight road game after playing poorly at Mississippi State. Two years ago, ECU lost by seven on the road in this series. It's two different teams, but I think the homefield here helps and ECU keeps this thing close. 

It's been fun fading Rice this season as they are one of the worst teams in the country. The Owls have lost four straight scoring just 32 points over that span. The defense has been gouged by most of their opponents outside of two games against UTEP and FIU. UTSA has lost two straight tough games to Southern Miss and North Texas. They are an uber talented team that pounds bad teams. They beat Texas State by 30 on the road and Southern by 34 as a 34.5 point favorite. There's not much analysis needed here. The Roadrunners roll easily.

The Green Wave have their biggest game of the season as South Florida comes to town. Tulane's triple option attack has been tough to stop at home with wins over Grambling, Army and Tulsa. Now USF isn't any of those three teams, but the Green Wave know how to play in front of their fans. The team's defense isn't that terrible outside of a 56 point explosion by Oklahoma on the road. USF has been rolling offensively and it's not even Quentin Flowers throwing it much. This team wants to run the ball and they've been doing that well. The defense is pretty solid although they did allow 31 to ECU and 22 to San Jose State on the road. I think the home team is a live dog in this one. 

The air surrounding the Steelers right now is not exactly very positive so naturally I think this is a good time to take them on Sunday. Last week, I spent time in this column pointing out how bad of a spot it was against the Jaguars. Now I think it's a good spot for them on the road where they've traditionally struggled. Pittsburgh's defense has played well for the most part this season outside of the effort against the Bears and Jags on the ground. No one has thrown for more then 210 yards against them. KC has the potentially questionable spot in this one with a road game against the Raiders coming up on Thursday night. The Chiefs offense is rolling right now, but the defense has shown some cracks as of late. KC has covered just seven of their last 18 home games. One of those failed covers was last year when they lost outright to these same Steelers. Give me the road team in this one.

The Buccaneers were one of the preseason darlings of the media and they've started 2-2 on the season. Jameis Winston is struggling to connect with DeSean Jackson which has hurt offensive production a bit. Thankfully they fixed the kicker issue after Nick Folk cost them the New England game last Thursday. The defense has been mighty leaky although they are getting some players back for this one. You can't get much lower on Arizona then you are now after their 34-7 loss in Philly. The running game has done next to nothing although Adrian Peterson comes over from New Orleans. Carson Palmer is getting battered behind a porous offensive line. The defense was also beaten up by the Philly air attack. You have to expect some improvement there as this team has way too much talent in the secondary to be that bad. Arizona won this game at home 40-7 last year. It won't be that bad, but I think they win again at home.

The Golden Gophers have lost two straight after starting out the year 3-0. They've struggled to slow down Maryland and Purdue who are two of the lesser teams in the conference. The Boilermakers had four turnovers and still won 31-17. Minnesota's quarterback play hasn't been as good so that's probably why they aren't favored. Still, this is a classic trap play as the Spartans are coming off the emotional 14-10 road win at Michigan in which they didn't play that great themselves offensively. Sparty is playing their second straight road game and is coming into a night road atmosphere. Over their last three games, MSU has managed 18, 17 and 14 points. I think this one is a struggle for the road team and the home squad gets back on the winning track.

Southern Miss hosts UTEP in a mismatch on Saturday. The Miners have not won a game this year and are coming off a tough one point loss at home to Western Kentucky. They've gone through a coaching change already and have had issues on both sides of the ball. Quadraiz Wadley is questionable with a knee injury and he represents UTEP's best shot at moving the ball. Southern Miss has not really had a game where it can flex it's muscles yet this season. They won 31-29 at Texas San Antonio in a contest that saw them show some real balance. They do have a road game against Louisiana Tech, but UTEP is so bad that even a half focused home team wins easily. Rice has covered just 13 of their last 30 games overall. I think this one gets real ugly.

It has not been a bad first season back to football for the Blazers who are 3-2 and are coming off a home win over Louisiana Tech as a 9.5 point underdog. The offense has shown it can ground and pound opponents as it's racked up over 150 rushing yards four times already. The team's defense isn't great, but for the most part, MTSU has been real sketchy with Brett Stockstill and Richie James hurt. The Blue Raiders are coming off a 20 point home win over FIU while a Friday night tilt with Marshall awaits them next week. I think UAB can win this one outright potentially.

Georgia Tech is flying high off a three game win streak and a bye week. The offense is clicking right now and the defense is showing up in a big way. They are kinda flying under the radar right now with a lot of the talk centering on Virginia Tech and Miami. This is a rare time when the defense matches the offense in terms of talent and success. Miami is coming off an emotional road win at Florida State 24-20, but will do so without several starters. Mark Walton is out for the season while NaVaughn Donaldson, Dee Delaney and Sheldrick Redwine are also on the sidelines for this one. The Canes have dominated this series as of late, but I like the Yellow Jackets to keep it close.

Florida State's season is spiraling out of control after they gave up a late touchdown to Miami to lose at home. Now they have to pick up the pieces and head to Duke to play a Blue Devils team that has lost two straight. FSU doesn't have a ton to play for right now other then the development of their young quarterback. The defense played well until that last drive against the Canes. Duke's not feeling great right now either as their hot start has cooled off a bit. Still, their offense has some weapons and as long as we can get the hook, I think they can keep it within a score. One has to wonder what's going on in Tallahassee.

The Hoosiers get Michigan at home this weekend after the Wolverines gagged away a game at home against their rival Michigan State.  One has to wonder what the team's mindset is especially since the offense is kinda broken right now. John O'Korn couldn't beat Wilton Speight who was already struggling. Yes, Indiana's defense isn't great, but there's not a lot you can count on with Michigan. Thankfully, their defense has been great allowing just 213 total yards per game. The Wolverines are just 14-14 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite. I'm considering a parlay of Indiana and the under. The Hoosiers are in a better spot right now with clearer heads.

The Bills have been one of the best stories in football so far as they've already beaten the Broncos and Falcons this season. They are doing so with a mediocre offensive attack led by Tyrod Taylor and Shady McCoy. The defense has been fantastic despite the offseason moves. Cincinnati is coming off a road win at Cleveland and may have found an offensive spark. Joe Mixon is getting more work and AJ Green is getting more involved under the new OC. Cincy's defense has been fantastic this year with only one opponent throwing for even close to 300 yards. To me, we're giving a lot of respect to the Bills who are playing their third road contest over the last four weeks. I think the Bengals win this one by a touchdown or more.

The young Hokies are coming off an emotional home game against Clemson and now head to sleepy Chestnut Hill for a matchup with BC. The Eagles have covered seven of their last 12 at home in this series and 15 of their last 25 overall. They are coming off a 28-8 win at home over CMU. BC's offense is pedestrian at best, but their defense has shown flashes of brilliance. To me, this is a tough game for Virginia Tech to get hyped for. The offense has to prove it can move the ball without Cam Phillips who will continue to be the number one target for defenses. I think the Hokies win but this is a big ask. They are just 6-6 against the spread in their last 12 road games. 

I like FAU and am pleased with their progress in terms of my over for the season win total, but I don't know about being road favorites by this much in this one. The Monarchs are coming off a bye week after getting trounced by two ACC opponents. They are also getting healthier after 49 players were injured entering the bye week. They are getting Jeremy Cox back and Melvin Vaughn who are two key pieces to the offense. It's also some time to get their 17 year old QB prepped for conference play and now he's getting a defense that can be beaten. FAU beat MTSU at home in a game that saw them face the Blue Raiders without their QB and their best WR. This is an Owls team that lost at Buffalo in September 34-31 and I'd put this ODU team on par with them. Yes, the Monarchs havent been that impressive this year, but they are still home, still have a good coach and still should be able to move the ball. FAU is 2-8 ATS the last 11 games as a favorite and 9-19 in their last 29 overall.

The big rivalry game that isn't getting as much publicity is Miami vs. Florida State. The Hurricanes are 3-0 and are steamrolling teams right now on offense. They beat up Toledo and Duke the last two times out and are getting their best defensive challenge in Florida State. Finally the Seminole D showed up and slowed down Wake Forest. The offense has been the issue for the home team as they can't get much going with James Blackman at QB. The Canes can be beaten defensively as Duke ran for 183 yards and Toledo put up 344 through the air. It's a rivalry game and very little is expected of FSU so as long as you can get three points, I'd take the home team. This one will be tough. 

Penn State has been fantastic this season, but they are about to head into the toughest stretch of the season. It starts with a sleepy road trip to play Northwestern in Evanston. The Nits rely on Saquon Barkley on the ground as Trace McSorley is not throwing it as much. The offense has been very good for the most part and the defense has been too. Northwestern is a pest with Justin Jackson running it and the offense doing enough to move the sticks. They played well in Wisconsin last time out and have the defense to make things a little difficult. Northwestern won this game at home two years ago 23-21. The Wildcats have covered 10 of their last 15 games as an underdog. Penn State has covered just three of their last 10 on the road. I think Northwestern can make this close.

Eastern Michigan gets their first taste of a potent offense as they travel to the Glass Bowl to play Toledo. EMU has had a murderers row of Charlotte, Rutgers, Ohio and Kentucky. They've played close low scoring games with all of them, but have struggled to do so with Toledo. The Rockets have been railing opponents outside of their loss to Miami two weeks ago. Toledo has put up 47, 37, 54 and 30 in their four contests. The bye week came at a good time and should refresh them entering this one. Logan Woodside is one of the best QBs in the country that no one is talking about. He's got a littany of weapons led by Cody Thompson. Last year Toledo won 35-20 on the road on this series with a home win two years ago of 63-20. They are 13-6 ATS since 1992 against EMU. I think they blitz EMU in their second straight road game. 

I usually don't like to play a team on the road taking on an option squad, but Tulsa is in a good situation right now as they enter to play Tulane. The Golden Hurricane have played New Mexico and Navy the last two weeks and their rushing attack. Yes, they lost both games and were gashed on the ground, but the prep will help them against Tulane who also wants to run the ball. You could say they had three weeks or so to get ready for the Green Wave. The Golden Hurricane's offense has been fantastic too this season especially on the ground. Tulane is coming off a bye week and before that they allowed 371 yards rushing to Army. This game has been moved up to an early start time due to the weather so will fans stay away as well? Tulsa has dominated this series winning by double digits the majority of the time. They have covered 11 of their last 14 road games and I think they do so here too. 

I think Vegas continues to underrate the Broncos for some reason as I thought this line should have been a little higher. They were home underdogs to the Cowboys back in week two and won that one easily. Yes, Denver lost last week, but it was a tough situation and they'll bounce back nicely here. Oakland's offensive line was exposed by a very mediocre Washington front line last week and Denver's is a lot better. The Broncos secondary is better then the Skins as well so that could mean more trouble for Derek Carr. He had just 96 yards passing in the loss to the Redskins. Denver's offense has shown it can run it and pass it as well with Trevor Siemian under center. Last year, the Broncos won this game 24-6 at home. We could see a similar score in this one. Oakland's defense doesn't scare me and I'll continue to look to fade this team when I can. 

A pair of winless teams in the AFC Central play in Cleveland. The Browns were road favorites last time out, but fell short by three in Indianapolis. Still, DeShone Kizer played pretty well in that game and is starting to show some improvement. If Cleveland can cut down on their turnovers (8 in the last two games), then I think they'll play better. Defensively, they've held two teams under 100 yards rushing and all three opponents to under 300 yards passing. Cincinnati lost a tough one in overtime to Aaron Rodgers last time out. Their offense has been anemic for the most part which caused the firing of their previous offensive coordinator. Marvin Lewis also spent part of the week cracking jokes about Jake Elliott who has more FGs then he has wins. Cincy has not impressed me at all this year.

The Texans are coming off a tough loss at New England last time out and are starting a three game homestand against division rival Tennessee. Deshaun Watson is getting better and better as a signal caller and that makes the team's run game even more dangerous. Defensively, Houston has been stout for the most part outside of Tom Brady's big game last week. Tennessee is 2-1, having won two straight after losing to Oakland. Marcus Mariota just hasn't put it all together since his late flourish last year. Last year, the home team won each game in this series. The Titans have failed to cover in 18 of their last 26 in conference and 11 of their last 14 against teams with a losing record. 

We get some value on the home team now that they are without starting quarterback Sam Bradford. Case Keenum is no slouch and he's coming off throwing for 369 yards in a win over Tampa Bay. The Vikings have a fantastic homefield advantage and a great defense to use that to their advantage. The Lions are a tough team who is 2-1 on the season so far and arguably should be 3-0. We'll see if there's any sort of hangover after the NFL's latest mess-up involving a Detroit game. The Lions still can't really run the ball despite trying to commit to it. Stafford has the advantage here, but I like the Vikings weapons a little bit more. Minnesota lost both games to these Lions last year so revenge is on their minds as well. Minnesota has covered in 11 of their last 14 dome games. I think they are the better team and the line doesn't seem right. 

Charlotte is going to be overmatched in quite a few of their games this season. They average just 11.2 points per game and 289.2 total yards of offense. The 49ers lost by 17 at EMU and by 48 at Kansas State. They've also gotten shut out at home by Georgia State 28-0. Turnovers have been an issue with the team committing 11 of them in four games. Defensively, they don't match up well with FIU who has some veteran talent and is feeling good after a solid win at Rice 13-7. The defense has clamped down on the run and is solid against the pass as well. Charlotte is 0-4 ATS this season and 7-17 ATS the last three years overall. Charlotte could be on the fade list all year long. 

I usually don't like laying this many points, but this is a complete mismatch. UTEP is 0-4 on the season scoring just 51 points in losses to Oklahoma, Rice, Arizona and New Mexico State. They've struggled against the run which is what Army stresses. The Miners have had quarterback issues and don't really do anything right. Army will pound away at you and is glad to be home after tough losses at Ohio State and Tulane. They crushed Fordham 64-6 in week one and could do the same in this one. Last year on the road they won 66-14 at UTEP in a game that saw them run for 419 yards. UTEP has covered just one of their last 12 games in September. This one could be very very ugly.

NC State shocked the ACC by going into Tallahassee and knocking off Florida State. Syracuse nearly did the same as they hung tough with LSU down in Death Valley. If you look at the stats, the teams are pretty similar being separated by three yards per game on offense and 21 yards per game on defense. For all the talk about the Orange's defensive struggles, they have actually given up less yards then the Pack. To me, this is a prime spot to fade the team out of Raleigh. They've got to be feeling so good after the win and focus could be an issue. NC State has covered just seven of their last 15 home games. Syracuse covered against them in 2015 in Raleigh losing by 13 as 18.5 point underdogs. I think the Orange can keep this one close.

The Commodores probably won't leave receivers completely open which will make things harder for Florida to score. The Gators offense is still looking for a quarterback and some consistency. The numbers look alright outside of the seven turnovers that side of the ball has produced. Vandy's defense has been very good outside of the Alabama game. Their offense has also improved greatly. Ralph Webb is keeping defenses honest while Kyle Shurmur is playing better under center. The big question is if they are mentally fragile right now after getting undressed by the Crimson Tide. UF has covered in just 13 of their last 30 games. To me, this is  low scoring affair that the Commodores hang around in. 

It's been a rough year for the Panthers who should be able to get some frustrations out this week on Rice. The Owls average 12 points per game and 121.8 yards through the air per contest. They lost by 55 to Stanford, 35 to Houston and by 6 to FIU. The defense has been an issue against their better opponents. Pittsburgh's only win was by 7 over Youngstown State then they got blasted by three straight good opponents. Giving up over 400 yards to the triple option of Georgia Tech as well as almost 600 yards through the air to Oklahoma State would skew the numbers. I really think the Panthers should win this one easily. Rice isn't going to beat too many teams on their schedule. 

The Redskins head home after a very good trip out west. They found a run game and some resiliency to win under some adversity. We still haven't seen the good Kirk Cousins yet and he may find that against a vulnerable Oakland secondary. The Raiders’ defense is still an issue, but they haven't faced anyone yet to take advantage of it. The Skins’ secondary with Josh Norman and Bashaud Breeland will be a good matchup against Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Marshawn Lynch could struggle against a Skins D that has done well against the run thus far. Oh yeah, Oakland has to play Denver in Week 4 and that game means just a bit more. Washington is 15-8 ATS the last three years as an underdog. I think the Redskins are a live dog in this one.