My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Philadelphia Flyers (7:05 EST).

Both teams come in off losses. Both teams will be hungry, but I think the Leafs’ blistering start to the year has put added pressure onto them and I believe continued regression is imminent. 

The Flyers most recently fell 5-4 in Ottawa, while the Leafs lost 6-3 at home to the Hurricanes.

Philadelphia is averaging 3.40 GPG and conceding just 2.90. Goaltender Michael Neuvirth will get the nod in net tonight and he’s 9-6 with a 2.84 GAA lifetime against the Leafs.

Toronto is averaging 4.30 GPG (an unsustainable number) and allowing 3.60 (more realistic.) Frederik Andersen is 6-3 with a 3.54 GAA on the year and is 6-0 with a 2.60 GAA lifetime against the Flyers. 

Neuvirth can match Andersen and the Flyers offense is once again firing on all cylinders. I expect Toronto to have another letdown here. Great value, play on the Flyers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Blues (7:35 EST).

Carolina comes in off a satisfying 6-3 win in Toronto just last night an suffice it to say, I think it’s going to have a letdown here in the second game of the back-to-back.

St. Louis lost 3-2 to Vegas in OT last Saturday, but then most recently bounced back with a convincing 5-2 win at home over the Flames. Alex Steen had four points, with a goal and three assists. 

Blues’ goaltender Jake Allen is 5-2-1 with a 2.70 GAA and .912 save percentage. And he’s been fantastic against the Hurricanes, going 3-1-0 with a 2.04 GAA and .927 save percentage lifetime. 

Note that so far St. Louis averages 3.30 GPG and concedes 2.60.

Carolina averges 2.43 GPG and allows 3.00. Goaltender Cam Ward will likely get the call here after Scott Darling went last night. Ward has done well against St. Louis in the past, but sports an ugly 3.00 GAA in the early going this year. 

I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is 23-7 in its last 30 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400, while Carolina is just 1-5 in its last six at home.

No need to overthink this one. St. Louis comes in focused and Allen is on absolute fire right now. The Hurricanes have been all over the map as far as their game-to-game consistency is concerned in the early going and they’re off a hugely satisfying road victory just last night.

In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on St. Louis.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:05 EST).

The 3-4 Carolina Hurricanes are in Toronto to take on the surging 7-2 Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday night and in my opinion, all signs point to a comfortable victory for the home side.

Carolina enters off a 5-1 home loss to Tampa Bay, while Toronto comes in off a 3-2 home win over the LA Kings.

So far the Hurricanes are ranked 28th in the league in scoring with 2.43 GPG. Jeff Skinner leads the way with five goals, but no one else on the team has more than two. 

Scott Darling is expected in net for the visitors and he’s 2-4 with a 2.64 GAA so far this year, including 1-2 with a 2.39 GAA on the road.

Toronto ranks No. 1 offensively with 4.44 GPG, while ranked 22nd in goals allowed with 3.33. Frederik Anderson is 6-2 with a 3.24 GAA thus far. Keep your eyes on Leafs’ superstar Auston Matthews, who leads the team in scoring with seven goals and 12 points overall.

I’ll point out that Carolina has struggled in this spot for a while now, just 22-28 (-4.6 units) in its last 50 after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest, while Toronto has dominated in this spot by going 21-14 (+7.6 units) in its last 35 when playing with two days rest.

I have a hard time seeing the Leafs “looking past” Carolina at this point of the season. In fact, this is a golden opportunity for Toronto to continue to progress. In my professional opinion, this line could easily be a lot larger. Play on the Leafs.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Nashville Predators (8:05 EST).

I think home ice will prove to be a major advantage for the Predators tonight.

After a slow start, Nashville comes into this one with considerable moemntum, having won four of its last six and eager to return to the winners circle after falling to the Rangers on Saturday.

Calgary has dropped two in a row and looks primed for a letdown here as well in my opinion. 

Nashville is in fact still unbeaten at home this year. That’s bad news for Sean Monahan and the Flames today. Monahan has scored a goal in five of his last six games. 

The Predators’ Fliip Forsberg had a goal in the 4-2 loss to the Rangers. 

For arguments sakes though, I’m going to call the goaltenders a “wash.” 

I will however point out that Calgary is a poor 2-4 (-1.7 units) in its last six after allowing four goals or more, while Nashville is 28-21 (+3.2 units) in its last 49 after a loss by two goals or more.

So far the Preds have allowed only 21 goals this year, tied for fewest in the Western Conference. All things considered, I feel we’re getting a great price on the proven home side. Play on Nashville.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Ottawa Senators (7:05 EST).

If you believe the media in Toronto, you’d think that the Leafs have already won the Stanley Cup. There’s no doubt that Toronto has looked great in the early going, but I think the Leafs finally stumble here against the determined Senators.

Toronto most recently beat Detroit 6-3, while Ottawa is off a 5-4 loss to New Jersey in OT. 

The Leafs are currently ranked No. 1 in the league in scoring at 4.86 GPG. Clearly this level is not sustainable though and I think we can start to see some “correction” happening sooner, rather than later. 

Defensively Toronto lacks, allowing 3.14 GPG.

Ottawa has also been good offensively, so far averaging 3.29 GPG. The Senators though have been even better defensively, ranked third overall in conceding just 2.29 GPG. 

I’ll point out as well that the Leafs have struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 7-15 in their last 22 road games against a team with a winning percentage of .400 or less, while the Sens have excelled in this position by going 35-29 (+8.2 units) in their last 54 after allowing four goals or more in their previous contest.

After back-to-back home losses, I like the Senators to bounce back here behind strong goaltending from Craig Anderson (who is 13-9 in his career against the Leafs) and I look for Toronto to finally stumble after a great start to the 2017/18 campaign.

Play on Ottawa.

Good luck…Larry

My 10*  Las Vegas Insider is on the Montreal Canadiens (10:05 EST).

Ultimately I believe that Montreal is the “hungrier/more desperate” team tonight.

Neither side can be very happy where it sits right now. That said, the panic button has already been pressed in Montreral as it limps into Anaheim with a 1-5-1 record.

The Ducks can empathize, as they enter this one at 2-3-1. 

Montreal most recently fell 5-2 to San Jose on Tuesday, which came after falling 5-1 to the Kings the night before. 

The Habs enter desperate on the heels of a six-game slide. Goaltender Carey Price is just 1-4-1 with a 3.56 GAA this year. So far the Canadiens average just 1.43 GPG, while allowing 3.86. 

The Ducks lost their second straight and fourth in their last five in a 3-1 setback to the Sabres on Sunday. Anaheim would go 0 for 4 on the power play. Ryan Getzlaf was injured and didn’t play and he’s not suiting up for this one either (if he does play, he’ll be less than 100% capacity obviously. Also note that Ryan Kesler is out for the Ducks as well.) Goaltender John Gibson is 2-2-1 with a 2.66 GAA thus far. 

I’ll point out though that Montreal is 11-3 in its last 14 following a loss by three or more goals, while Anaheim is just 1-5 in its last six home games against a team with a road winning percentage below .400. 

Note that Patrick Eaves is also listed as questionable for the home side tonight. Also note that while these teams rarely meet, this is still a revenge game for the Habs, as they’ve lost five straight in the series.

Price hasn’t forgotten how to play and the Canadiens are not really as bad as what they’ve shown over the last couple of weeks. I’m banking on the desperate visiting side to risk life and limb tonight and to take this one down to the wire. Play on Montreal.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the New York Rangers (7:05 EST).

The 2-4 New York Islanders are at the 1-6 New York Rangers on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side.

The Islanders enter off a 3-2 road loss to LA, while the Rangers come in off a 5-4 setback at home in OT to the Penguins.

So far the Isles are ranked 21st in the NHL in scoring with 2.50 GPG, while ranked 17th in goals allowed with 2.83. Thomas Greiss is getting the call in net and he’s so far 1-2 with a 3.07 GAA. 

The Rangers are averaging 2.43 GPG and allowing 2.71. Henrik Lundqvist is back after falling to Pittsburgh and so far he’s 1-4 with a 3.23 GAA on the year (note that he owns a lifetime 2.22 GAA at Madison Square Garden though.) 

Additionally I’ll point out that the Isles are just 1-5 in tehir last six road games against a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400, while the Rangers are 54-26 in their last 80 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

This is the third game of a six game home stand for the Rangers, so there’s no question that the overall scheduling is in their favor, with the Islanders just finishing transitioning back from the West coast.

I think the Rangers are the “hungrier” team here and all things considered, I do indeed believe this to be the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Rangers.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Rangers (7:05 EST).

The 3-2-1 Pittsburgh Penguins are in New York to take on the desperate 1-5 New York Rangers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side.

The Pens come to The Big Apple off a 4-3 home win over Florida, while the Rangers fell 3-2 at home to the Devils.

Pittsburgh has won three of its last four and is averaging 3.33 GPG, while conceding 4.17. Clearly the season is still young and the Pens are going to improve dramatically on the defensive side of the ice once it’s all said and done, but so far in the early going it hasn’t been great for the two time defending champs. Goaltender Matt Murray is 3-1 with a 3.29 GAA. 

New York has so far averaged just 2.17 GPG, while allowing 3.50. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist will get the call in net and he owns a lifetime 2.47 GAA against Pittsburgh. 

I’ll point out though that Pittsburgh is just 2-5 in its last seven road games, while New York is 54-25 in its last 79 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

The Pens may have owned this series of late, but the Rangers are unquestionably the “hungrier” team in this one. I think the desperation in which they play with tonight will in the end prove to be the difference.

Play on New York.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Bruins (9:05 EST).

The 1-2 Boston Bruins are in Arizona to take on the 0-3-1 Coyotes on Saturday night.

Boston enters off a 6-3 road loss to Colorado, while Arizona fell 4-2 to Detroit in its last outing. 

Tuukka Rask will get the call in net for Boston and he’ll be looking to reverse his early fortunes, as so far he’s allowed ten goals on the season. Rask is one of the best goaltenders on the planet though and it’s only a matter of time until he returns to form (was 37-20-5 with a 2.23 GAA last season.) 

Arizona could go with either Antti Raanta or Louis Dominique in net. Both have struggled this season, as Raanta has a 3.33 GAA and Dominique has allowed two goals in eight periods of action.  

I think it’s interesting to note that Boston is 25-14 (+7.4 units) in its last 39 games played on Saturday, while Arizona is just 18-25 (-2.3 units) in its last 43 in the same position. 

I like Rask to bounce back and to easily outduel whoever Arizona goes with this evening. And that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the Bruins today in my opinion. Play on Boston.

Good luck…Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Colorado Avalanche (9:00 EST).

The 2-1-1 Anaheim Ducks are in Colorado to take on the 3-1 Avalanche and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. 

Anaheim bounced back from a pair of losses to beat the Islanders at home on Wednesday, while the Avs come off back-to-back wins over the Boston Bruins.

Nail Yakupov scored three goals in the home and home set for the Avs. Jonahtan Bernier will get the call in net to face his former team. 

I think it’s very intersting to note though that Anaheim is just 13-17 (-12.8 units) in its last 30 games that are played on a Friday, while Colorado is 10-5 (+9.5 units) in its last 15 Friday night contests.

The Avs hit the road for a two game swing starting tomorrow night in Dallas, making this evening’s contest that much more important. 

Colorado isn’t getting nearly enough respect in this spot. Great value, play on the Avalanche.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Minnesota Wild (8:30 EST).

The 0-1-0-1 Minnesota Wild will be eager to get off the schneid and score the upset against the 3-0-1-0 Blackhawks on Thursday night. 

The Wild most recently fell 5-4 at Carolina in a shootout, while the Blackhawks come in off a 3-1 road win over the Habs.

This is a revenge scenario for Minnesota as well after dropping three of four meetings last year.

Wild goaltender Devan Dubnyk was 40-24 with a 2.25 GAA last season, including 17-13 with a 2.37 GAA. Last year Minnesota was ranked third in scoring with 3.21 GPG, while ranked seventh in goals allowed by conceding 2.51. 

The Blackhawks were ranked second in the league in scoring last season with 3.25 GPG, while ranked fourth in goals allowed in conceding 1.75. Goaltender Corey Crawford is off to a hot start, he’s 10-10 with a 2.48 GAA lifetime against the Wild.

I’ll point out though that Minnesota 32-24 (+2.7 units) in its last 56 after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while Chicago is interestingly just 4-6 (-2.9 units) in its last ten against the division.

I think the “hungrier” and clearly underachieving Wild find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Boston Bruins (9:35 EST).

The 1-1 Boston Bruins invade Colorado to take on the 2-1 Avalanche and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors.

Note that this is the second game of a home and home set, with the Avs taking the first one in Boston by a score of 4-0. 

The B’s had 29 shots in that game, but weren’t able to get one past Semyon Varlamov. 

Boston turns to goaltender Tuukka Rask, who gave up three goals on 22 attempts. Rask was 17-14 with a 2.41 GAA on the road last year. He’s only 1-6 against the Avs throughout his career, despite posting a very respectable 2.00 GAA.

Last season the Bruins averaged 2.83 GPG, while ranked 9th on the defensive end in conceding 2.55.

The Avs averaged just 2.01 GPG last year, while ranked 30th in goals allowed in conceding 3.37. Last season Varlamov was 3-10 with a 3.34 GAA at home.

I’ll point out though that Boston is 9-2 in its last 11 against the Western Conference, while Colorado is just 6-21 in its last 27 following a victory.

Boston did well on the road last year and plays with revenge. Colorado has started nicely, but was an atrocious home team last season. 

Revenge is a powerful motivating factor and it’s one which I believe will prove to be the difference maker for the visitors tonight. Play on the Bruins.

Good luck…Larry

This is a 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER on the Columbus Blue Jackets (7:00 EST).

Columbus won its opener 5-0 over the Islanders and then played in Chicago the following night and got hammered 5-1. 

CBJ starting goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky will be back between the pipes tonight after getting the game off against the Blackhawks. Last season Bobrovsky was 41-22 with a 2.06 GAA (including 16-13 with a 2.33 GAA on the road.) Note that he’s 8-5 with a 2.21 GAA lifetime against Carolina.

Last year the Blue Jackets ranked sixth in the league in scoring with an average of 3.01 GPG, while ranked second defensively in conceding just 2.35 GPG.

Carolina comes in off a 5-4 shootout win over the Wild. In net for the home side is Scott Darling, who was 18-20 with a 2.38 GAA with Chicago last season. This is his first career start against Columbus.

Last year Carolina was ranked 20th in scoring with 2.59 GPG ,while ranked 18th in goals allowed with 2.80 per contest. 

I’ll point out that the Blue Jackets are a superb 13-3 in their last 16 when playing on two days rest, while the Hurricanes are just 1-6 in their last seven home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.

As good as Darling has been, I’m still giving the nod in net to Bobrovsky. I’ll give the edge to the Blue Jackets offensively as well. All things considered, I think this is great value.

Play on Columbus.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Buffalo Sabres (3:05 EST).

I base my selections on many different things. Sometimes it’s all about the players on the acutal field (or ice in this case.) Other times though it’s about scheduling, the overall situation each team finds itself in coming into a contest, or even strong or lop-sided trends. 

In this case I simply feel this is a great spot for 0-2 Buffalo to finally get off the schneid. 

The Devils are off a satisfying 4-1 Opening Night win over the Avalanche and I think they’ll get caught “looking past” the lowly Sabres today, with upcoming games on Wednesday at Toronto and then at home against Washington on Friday. 

Buffalo on the other hand has three whole nights off after this before an extended West Coast road trip. 

For all intents and purposes and at this early stage of the season, this has almost become a “must win” game for Buffalo.

As metioned off the top, I think this is a great situational play. Play on the Sabres.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Jose Sharks (10:30 EST).

LA beat the Flyers 2-0 on Thursday. The night before Philadelphia was in San Jose beating the Sharks 5-3. 

San Jose started off slowly in that one and was never able to dig itself out of the early hole, but with a night off to re-focus, I like the Sharks to bounce back.

LA was ranked just 25th in the league in scoring last year with 2.43 GPG and it’s hard to judge exactly where the offense is at after the game against the Flyers. The Kings were solid defensively in conceding just 2.45 GPG and the defense will once again be a strength of the team with goaltender Jon Quick between the pipes.

The Sharks averaged 2.67 GPG last year, while conceding 2.44 (ranked 5th). Martin Jones looked uncharacteristically shaky in net on Opening night, but there’s no reason not to think that he’ll bounce back in fine fashion himself (note that he is 6-4 with a 2.19 GAA lifetime against LA.)

I’ll point out that the Kings are a terrible 6-10 (-7.8 units) in their last 16 after shutting out their opponent in their prevous game, while the Sharks are a superb 28-13 (+13 units) in their last 41 after a loss by two goals or more in their previous game.

For all the reasons listed above, play on San Jose.

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Calgary Flames (10:00 EST).

The 0-1 Jets are in Calgary to take on the 0-1 Flames. Here’s another one where I feel that the “home ice advantage” will in the end prove to be the pivotal deciding factor. 

The Jets lost 7-2 at home to the Leafs, while the Flames fell 3-0 in Edmonton.

Winnipeg was a decent offensive team last year, averaging 3.00 GPG, but it was lousy on the defensive end in conceding 3.11. It doesn’t appear as if the Jets’ defense will be much better this season. Goaltender Steve Mason allowed five goals on 20 shots. 

Note that last year Mason was 9-16 with a 2.84 GAA on the road.

Calgary averaged 2.71 GPG, and conceded 2.67. Mike Smith stopped 42 of 45 shots in the opening night loss, but his offense was unable to provide him any support. 

I’ll point out though that Winnipeg is just 3-8 in its last 11 after scoring two goals or less in its previous contest, while Calgary is 8-1 in its last nine when playing on two days rest.

For all the reasons listed above, play the Flames.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Capitals (7:00 EST).

A couple of 1-0 teams collide on Saturday night. These clubs are expected to be contending for the Eastern Conference title at the end of the season, but I think the home ice advantage is a very real factor in this particular matchup.

Montreal needed OT to beat the Sabres 3-2 in a shootout in its opener, while Washington also prevailed 5-4 in a shootout over Ottawa on Thursday. 

Washington took two of three in the season series last year, but it was the road side that prevailed in each meeting. Certainly that’s added motivation for the Capitals tonight.

I’ll point out as well that Montreal is just 2-5 in its last seven when playing on one days rest, while Washington is 4-0 in its last four home games against a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600.

With a tough game at the Rangers tomorrow night, I think the Habs get caught looking ahead. All things considered, I feel this is a great price. Play on the Capitals.

Good luck…Larry

The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Red Wings (7:30 EST).

The Red Wings open their season in their brand new state of the art building, the Little Caesars Arena and I think the home side will ride the wave of emotion to a solid victory.

Minnesota went out in the first round in five games to St. Louis last year. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk was 40-19-5 with a 2.25 GAA. He’s 4-2-4 with a 2.68 GAA lifetime against Detroit. 

The Red Wings missed the playoffs last year, which is a rarity.

Jimmy Howard gets the call in net for the home side, he was 10-11-1 with a 2.10 GAA last season. He’s been dominant against the Wild throughout his career going 13-3-3 with a 2.16 GAA. 

After winning just 17 home games at Joe Louis last year, you can bet that the proud Red Wings will be looking tor a much better performance in their new arena this time around.

I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 3-7 in its last ten on the road, while Detroit is 20-7 in its last 27 against the Wild at home.

All signs point to the slight home dog as the correct call here.

Good luck…Larry

The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Buffalo Sabres (7:00 EST).

Montreal won the Atlantic last season, while Buffalo was last in the conference. These teams split a pair of games last year though. 

The Habs would then go on to lose in six games in the first round to the Rangers. Defenseman Andrei Markov and Alexander Radulov are gone and Johanthan Drouin and Karl Alzner are in for Montreal now.

Carey Price was 37-25 wiith a 2.33 GAA last year. Overall Montreal was 15th in scoring last season with 2.72 GPG, while ranked fourth in goals allowed with 2.41 GPG.

Buffalo averaged 2.48 GPG, ranked 24th. It’s interesting to note though that the Sabres were No. 1 in power play conversion with 24.3 percent. Buffalo conceded 2.82 GPG, ranked 19th. 

Robin Lehner was 23-34 with a 2.68 GAA, including 13-19 with a 2.59 GAA at home. 

Over the long-term, Price gets the nod in net, but on Opening Night, I’m calling these goaltenders a wash. 

Buffalo looked strong against Montreal last year and has a big opportunity in front of the home town crowd. I expect the Sabres to ride the wave of emotion to a solid opening night victory. 

Good luck…Larry

The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Bruins (7:00 EST).

Nashville lost to Pittsburgh in the Stanley Cup Final, while Boston lost in six games to Ottawa in the first round. 

There’s only one way the Predators can go this year in my opinion and that’s not up. Nashville’s run to the Cup was awesome, but regression does seem imminent. Note that the team lost Mike Fisher and James Neal. One big addition was Nick Bonino from the Penguins.

Nashville ranked 11th in scoring last year with 2.90 GPG, while ranked 15th in goals allowed with 2.68. Goaltender Pekka Rinne was 31-28 with a 2.42 GAA last season.

The Bruins were ranked 13th in scoring with 2.83 GPG, while ranked ninth in goals allowed in giving up 2.55 per contest. Tuukka Rask was 37-25 with a 2.33 GAA last year, including 20-11 with a 2.07 GAA at home.

I think the goaltenders are clearly a “wash” on Opening Night. Home ice advantage can’t be overlooked as a very real factor though. I like Boston to take advantage and I expect Nashville to stumble. 

Good luck…Larry

My 10* OPENING NIGHT PERFECT STORM is on the Edmonton Oilers (10:05 EST).

At the start of any season you want to be a little bit cautious as you try to get a firm “read” on the teams. Certainly the NHL is no exception.

Like the NFL and NBA, preseason NHL is not a good indicator whatsoever on how a team will perform once the regular season gets underway. 

For this pick I’m basing it mostly on common sense.

With Connor McDavid leading the way, Edmonton has a very legitimate shot at a Stanley Cup run. The Oilers were one of the biggest surprises last year and there are big expectations in the “City Of Champions” this season as well.

These teams played four times last season and the Oilers came out on top in each instance, winning 7-4 on October 12th, 5-3 on October 14th, 2-1 on January 14th and 7-3 on January 21st. 

Home ice advantage clearly can’t be taken for granted on Opening Night. The signing of Jaromir Jagr certainly didn’t make the Flames any younger or faster. 

All signs point to a rout. Lay the price.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Nashville Predators (8:00 EST).

I had a play on the Penguins in Game 5. So far the home side has won every game in this series and I’m fully expecting that pattern to continue tonight.

Pens’ netminder Matt Murray has been great at home and atrocious on the road. The same can be said of Preds’ goalie Pekka Rinne as well though, as he’s been horrible in Pittsburgh, but almost unbeatable in Nashville. 

These are two teams which feed off the home crowd and there’s no doubt that Nashville is a tough arena to play in. And I’ll point out that this is a spot in which the Penguins have struggled in throughout the postseason, going a poor 6-7 (-1.2 units) when leading in a playoff series, while Nashville is 8-4 (+4 units) in its last 12 when trailing in a playoff series and 14-7 (+6 units) this year after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing.

In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the price, play on the Predators.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (8:00 EST).

I had a play on the “under” in Game 4, but for Game 5 I think the home side will find a way to get the job done.

It was a cake-walk for the Penguins in Game’s 1 and 2, but the Predators turned the table and took advantage of home ice in Game’s 3 and 4. 

So far home ice advantage has been the difference in this series and I’m expecting this incredibly strong trend to continue. 

Let’s face it, neither team has looked great so far in the Finals. Pekka Rinne struggled in net in Pittsburgh, while Pens’ goaltender Matt Murray wasn’t his usual self in Nashville. 

The offenses have looked awesome at times and really average in others. 

I’ll also point out though that this is a spot in which the Predators have in fact struggled in mightily for bettors all season, going a poor 13-21 (-11.6 units) after scoring four goals or more in their previous contest, while the Penguins have excelled in this position by going 23-11 (+9.4 units) this year after allowing four goals or more.

For all the reasons listed above, play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (8:00 EST).

I took Nashville in Game 1 and lost. I took the UNDER in Game 2 and won. I think that Pittsburgh offers fantastic value in this spot though as it will look to take a virtual strangle-hold on this series.

Pittsburgh is “inside” Predators’ goaltender Pekka Rinne’s head. The Penguins only managed 15 shots in Game 1, but still won 5-3. 

Rinne had been the best goaltender in the playoffs and the Predators owned the stoutest overall defense, but the Pens have rattled the All-star netminder.

And simply put, I don’t expecting anything to change tonight either. 

I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is 29-17 (+5.5 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous game, while Nashville has struggled against teams from the Eastern Conference all year, going just 14-20 (-11.6 units) in all non-conference games. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on the the Penguins in Game 3.

Godo luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Nashville Predators (8:00 EST).

I think a lot of sharps will be backing the defending champs today, but I think the value is on the upstart underdog Predators, who will look to steal one in Pittsburgh, just like the Senators did in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final.

I had a play on Ottawa in that contest and I believe the Predators can duplicate that feat in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final.

If the Penguins thought Craig Anderson was a good goaltender, then they haven’t seen anything yet. Nashville’s Pekka Rinne is 12-4 with a 1.70 GAA and .941 save percentage in the playoffs this year. 

The Predators are ranked third in the playoffs in scoring with 2.94 GPG, while ranked No. 1 on the defensive end in conceding just 1.81 per contest.

Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray is 3-1 with a 1.35 GAA in the playoffs this year. The Penguins are ranked first in scoring in the postseason with an average of 3.05 GPG, while ranked fifth in goals allowed with 2.32 GPG. 

I think Nashville’s No. 1 ranked defense and red hot goaltender turn out to be the difference tonight though. Play on the Predators.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the PIttsburgh Penguins (8:00 EST).

I’ve played on Ottawa twice in this series and won big as an underdog in each case. I had the “over” in the Penguin’s 7-0 Game 5 victory.

This is the first time I’ve played on Pittsburgh in this series though. At right around the -150 range, I think the defending champs offer great value in this spot.

Pittsburgh got some timely goaltending from veteran Marc-Andre Fleury to open the playoffs, but he’d eventually stumble against the Sens, which promoped the move to All Star Matt Murray.

The move has paid immediate dividends as the Sens have managed to post just two total goals over their last two games.

Ottawa netminder Craig Anderson was a disaster in Game 5, so the big question is will he be able to pull himself together for Game 6? Maybe, but then again, maybe not.

Murray has a huge advantage here. Note that he’s now 17-6 with a 1.97 GAA and .927 save percentage lifetime in the postseason. 

The Senators were outshot 36-25, went 0-for-4 on power play and were not able to kill any of the three man-advantage opportunities by the Penguins in Game 5.

PIttsburgh is just too deep and too experienced. With a chance to wrap this one up and punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final with a date against the waiting Predators, all signs point to the Penguins as the correct move here.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Anaheim Ducks (8:00 EST).

This has been a rather difficult series to predict. With their backs against the wall though, I think the Ducks can stave off elimination and send this one back to Anaheim for an exciting Game 7 for a winner takes all ticket to the Stanley Cup Final!

The Ducks will look to kick start their No. 1 playoff offense after falling 3-1 in Game 5. Anaheim though did get 33 shots on net. 

But a date on the road is just what the doctor ordered for Anaheim, as it’s 5-2 away from friendly confines in the playoffs thus far. 

Anaheim will likely start Jonathan Bernier in net, who came in in relief of an injured John Gibson in the first period of Game 5. Gibson is listed as questionable tonight. Bernier is 1-1 with a 2.34 GAA in the postseason in his career. 

Clearly it won’t be easy, as the Predators have been tough at home and goaltender Pekka Rinne has been unbelievable, now 11-4 with a 1.62 GAA in the postseason.

The Ducks though have been “money in the bank” in this situation in the playoffs, now 4-1 (+3.1 units) when trailing in a playoff series and 13-3 (+10 units) this year after a loss by two goals or more in their previous outing. 

And note that the Predators have struggled in this spot, going just 14-17 (-7.6 units) this season following a victory by two goals or more. 

For all the reasons listed above, play on Anaheim.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ottawa Senators (8:00 EST).

I took the Sens as a +190 dog in Game 1 and won. I then took the “over” in Game 2 and lost. I then came back with Ottawa in Game 3.

With a chance to take a stangle hold on this series, I love the Senators to once again shutdown the Penguins and to take advantage of some shaky goaltending from Pittsburgh starter Marc-Andre Fleury, who now clearly appears to be out of gas. Matt Murray, who hasn’t seen any action in months, came on in relief and made 19 saves after Fleury allowed four goals on nine shots in the setback.. 

Whoever gets the call in net for the defending champs though, it’s safe to say that their are major issues in this department for Pittsburgh.

Meanwhile, Sens’ netminder Craig Anderson appears to be getting stronger as the playoffs progress, he made 25 saves in Game 3 and is now 10-5 with a 2.20 GAA in the postseason. 

Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to score more than one goal in a game against Ottawa and it’s not going to get any easier tonight. This Sens team is incredibly deep, talented and hungry. 

Ottawa continues to get little respect from the oddsmakers in my opinion. Play on the Senators.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ottawa Senators (8:00 EST).

I played the Senators +190 in Game 1, but came up short with my play on the “over” in Game 2.

I look to get back on track here in Game 3 as I think the home side is being severely undervalued in this spot.

Pittsburgh has so far looked far from dominant in this series. The Sens took Game 1, 2-1 in OT and then Pittsburgh won Game 2 by a score of 1-0. 

Ottawa is looking great at this point, it now has home ice advantage and I think it can make the most if in Game 3. 

Pittsburgh has two significant injuries as well as both Bryan Rust and Justin Schultz got injured in the first period of Game 2. Patric Hornqvist is also a game-time decision.

The Senators failed to score for the first time in 36 contests. Suffice it to say, I think the team gets back on track tonight.

And I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 1-2 (-1.2 units) in its last three after shutting out its opponent, while Ottawa is already a perfect 2-0 (+2.6 units) this year when tied in a playoff series.

I think the Senators offer great value at home in this matchup.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* TOP PLAY is the Ottawa Senators (7:00 EST).

I was 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s seven games series win over Washington. The Penguins looked great at times in that series and really poor in others. 

Ottawa needed six games to get by Boston and another six to beat New York to get this point. 

These teams played three times in the regular season and the Senators won two. 

One player to keep your eyes on for Ottawa is defensman Erik Karlsson, who has 13 points thus far in the postseason. Goaltender Craig Anderson is 8-4 with a 2.49 GAA in the playoffs to go along with a .914 save percentage and one shutout.

The Pens’ Marc-Andre Fleury is 8-4 with a 2.55 GAA and .927 save percentage in the poseason. 

I think the Sens offer a lot more than just a punchers chance in Game 1. I think Pittsburgh comes in a bit complacent and the hungry visitors take advantage.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Anaheim Ducks (9:00 EST).

The Predators advanced by beating the Blues 3-1 on Sunday, to take that series 4-2. The Ducks needed seven games to get by the Oilers, most recently a 2-1 win on Wednesday night in Game 7. 

These teams played three times in the regular season and Anaheim won two, including a 4-3 shootout victory in the last matchup on March 7th.

Nashville has looked pretty stout so far in the playoffs, having allowed a total of 14 goals over ten games. 

Pekka Rinne owns a 1.37 GAA and .951 save percentage in the postseason. 

The Predators have been the best on the defensive end in the playoffs, conceding just 1.4 GPG. 

But the Ducks are in the Conference Final for a reason as well, as they enter as the second-highest scoring team in the postseason with an average of 3.2 GPG. 

Is John Gibson as good as Rinne? Probably not. But he’s been clutch at times in the playoffs already and he’ll surely benefit from playing in front of the home town crowd tonight.

I’ll point out as well that Nashville is just 2-6 (-4.9 units) this year when playing with three or more days of rest, while Anaheim is 3-1 (+2.1 units) in its last four after giving up one or less goals in its previous contest.

Anaheim took two of three in the regular season and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done in Game 1 too. Play on the Ducks.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT 7 CLUB is on the Washington Capitals (7:30 EST).

If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that I rarely make selections on “money line” games of greater than -150. Occassionaly I do, but almost never.

After taking the underdog through the first four games of this series (Pens, Pens, Caps, Pens), then Washington -1.5 +170 on the “puck line” in Game 5 and then once again on the underdog Capitals in Game 6, I have no issues at all in laying this steeper price on the home side in Game 7.

This has been a back-and-forth series, but Washington has clearly gained the momentum back. Pittsburgh has up to this point been getting unbelievable goaltending from backup veteran Marc-Andre Fleury, but as I stated in my Game 6 analysis, I thought that Washington’s Braden Holtby would outduel his counterpart.

And that was the case. Holtby let in two early goals, but then shut it down the rest of the way. Washington looked very strong in bouncing back in Game 6 and I think Holtby carries that momentum over into Game 7.

The Penguins had their shot and blew it at home. Pittsburgh managed to gut out a win in Game 4 with captain Sidney Crosby sidelined in concussion protocol, but it’s stumbled since. Crosby’s health continues to be a major concern for the club and I think is a definite distraction.

I’ll point out as well that the road team is still just 4-10 the last 14 games in this series, while Washington is 41-12 in its last 53 when playing one one days rest.

Washington has outscored Pittsburgh 9-4 over the last two games and no doubt looks red hot on both ends of the ice. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Capitals.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washignton Capitals (7:30 EST).

So far I’m 5-0 in this series, taking the underdog through the first four games (Pens, Pens, Caps, Pens), before then jumping on Washington -1.5 +170 in its 4-2 Game 5 victory. 

The home team has won ten of the last 13 in this series, but I think the desperate Capitals are going to find a way to get the job done tonight and send this one back to the nation’s capital for a decisive Game 7. 

For starters, Braden Holtby finally outplayed Pens netminder Marc-Andre Fleury, who in my opinion has been playing over his head to this point. Fleury of course has won Stanley Cups, but he’s now the team’s backup and was forced into service in Game 2 of their opening round series. 

Pittsburgh was ranked No. 1 in the regular season on the offensive end, while Washington wasn’t far behind in third.

The Capitals were the No. 1 defense in the league though, compared to just 17th for the Penguins.

Much like in baseball, I’m betting on Holtby in being able to outduel his counterpart today. Washington is a dangerous and motivated team and I think it offers great value in this spot.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Anaheim Ducks (10:30 EST).

I played the Ducks in both Game’s 3 and 4 and I think they’re going to find a way to get the job done in Game 5 as well. If you didn’t get a chance to read my winning Game 4 analysis, I’m going to post it again here as for the most part, the line of thinking on that selection also directly applies to tonight’s pick as well:

I played the Ducks in Game 3 and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in Game 4 as well.

The Oilers took the first two games of this series, but Anaheim got right back into it with a dominating 6-3 win in Game 3.

The Ducks have to be liking their chances tonight as well as they’re now 28-10 in the last 38 games in this series.

Anaheim wasn’t great on the road in the regular season, but so far it’s 3-0 away from friendly confines in the playoffs. Keep your eyes on Jakob Silfverberg, who now has six goals in the postseason.

I think these goaltenders are a “wash,” as either John Gibson of the Ducks or Cam Talbot of the Oilers has the ability to take over a game on any given night (Talbot is 6-3 with a 2.47 GAA in the playoffs, while Gibson is 4-2 with a 2.80 GAA).

I’ll point out that Anaheim is 33-19 (+9.2 units) in its last 52 when playing on two days rest, while Edmonton is just 4-7 (-4.8 units) in the same position this season.

I had a feeling that the Ducks would come out poised in Game 3 and that it was the Oilers that had the pressure on them to perform in front of the home town crowd.

And I think that line of thinking also applies in this one as well.

Expect the Ducks’ veteran leadership to once again get the better of the younger Oilers.

“Momentum” is a very real, almost tangible factor in the playoffs and it’s one that I believe the oddsmakers often have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. And that’s the case here in my opinion.

All things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting an excellent price on the surging Ducks.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Anaheim Ducks (10:00 EST).

I played the Ducks in Game 3 and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in Game 4 as well.

The Oilers took the first two games of this series, but Anaheim got right back into it with a dominating 6-3 win in Game 3. 

The Ducks have to be liking their chances tonight as well as they’re now 28-10 in the last 38 games in this series.

Anaheim wasn’t great on the road in the regular season, but so far it’s 3-0 away from friendly confines in the playoffs. Keep your eyes on Jakob Silfverberg, who now has six goals in the postseason. 

I think these goaltenders are a “wash,” as either John Gibson of the Ducks or Cam Talbot of the Oilers has the ability to take over a game on any given night (Talbot is 6-3 with a 2.47 GAA in the playoffs, while Gibson is 4-2 with a 2.80 GAA). 

I’ll point out that Anaheim is 33-19 (+9.2 units) in its last 52 when playing on two days rest, while Edmonton is just 4-7 (-4.8 units) in the same position this season.

I had a feeling that the Ducks would come out poised in Game 3 and that it was the Oilers that had the pressure on them to perform in front of the home town crowd.

And I think that line of thinking also applies in this one as well.

Expect the Ducks’ veteran leadership to once again get the better of the younger Oilers.

Play on Anaheim.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (7:15 EST).

I played the Penguins in Game’s 1 and 2 and then came back with the Capitals in Game 3. 

Sidney Crosby is out, but the Pens are an incredibly deep team and I think they offer great value as a slight dog at home in this situation.

The Capitals finished as the Presidents Cup Trophy Winners in the regular season, but despite the Game 3 setback, so far it’s been Pittsburgh which has looked like the better team in this series.

The Penguins are stacked from top to bottom with talent and have been getting World class goaltending from veteran Marc-Andre Fleury. Pittsburgh was an OT goal away from having a 3-0 stranglehold on this series, but the Pens still have to be liking their chances tonight, even without their captain in the line-up.

I think the goaltenders are a “wash.” 

Braden Holtby got the win for Washington last time out and he’s now 5-4 with a 2.54 GAA in the postseason. 

Fleury is 6-2 with a 2.44 GAA so far in the playoffs. Either one of these guys has the capability of taking over a game on any given night.

Ultimately I feel that the Pens will step up and rally in this moment after their leader has gone down. The defending champs won’t be going down without a fight and as I stated off the top, I feel they offer tremendous value in this position. Washington has been in this spot many times over the last few years and has consistently choked (still just 6-10, -5.6 units in the second round of the playoffs the L3 years combined).

Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the St. Louis Blues (9:35 EST).

I think the desperate Blues offer great value here to steal Game 4.

So far this has been a competitive series, with each team trading victories to this point. Nashville took Game 1, 4-3, while the Blues took Game 2, 3-2. 

Nashville then won 3-1 in Game 3. Now it’s time for St. Louis to get back on track here and snatch back the home ice advantage.

Pekka Rinne has been unbelievable for the Predators, but Jake Allen has been pretty good for St. Louis as well. Allen is 5-3 with a 2.04 GAA and 93.8 save percentage in the postseason, while Rinne is 6-1 with a 1.38 GAA and 95.0 save percentage. 

Rinne’s numbers are better, but not by that much. Clearly either one of these netminders has the capability to completely take over a game on any given night. So in my opinion, that means that they’re a “wash.”

The Blues had scored ten goals in three games previous before Game 3 and I think that offense wakes up again tonight.

I’ll point out that St. Louis is 14-10 (+3.3 units) this year after a loss by two goals or more, while Nashville is just 12-17 (-9.6 units) this season following a win by two goals or more. 

I think that Nashville finally has a letdown here and the hungry Blues find a way to get the job done at the end of the night.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Washington Capitals (7:30 EST).

I played on Pittsburgh in Game’s 1 and 2 of this series, but for Game 3 I’m backing the now desperate Capitals, which are essentially in a “do-or-die” scenario tonight.

Washington lost to the Pens in the second round of the playoffs last year as well. The Capitals were a good road team this season, finishing 25-19 away from friendly confines.

Braden Holtby took his second loss in a row, he’s now 26-28 with a 1.98 GAA lifetime in the postseason. The Capitals finished third in scoring offense in the regular season, and No. 1 on the defensive end in conceding just 2.16. 

Clearly Pittsburgh looks pretty dominant right now, but so too did the Oilers after they grabbed a 2-0 series lead over Anaheim, only to then fall 6-3 at home in Game 3 last night (I had a play on the Ducks in that one.)

Marc-Andre Fleury has looked great to this point for Pittsburgh, but one has to wonder when he’ll have his first “hiccup?” The Pens finished with the No. 1 offense in the regular season with 3.39 GPG, while ranked just 17th on the defensive end in conceding 2.79. 

I’ll point out though that Washington is 27-14 (+7.6 units) in its last 41 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest.

I think the desperate Capitals offer great value here, play on Washington.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Anaheim Ducks (7:00 EST

I played the Ducks in Game’s 1 and 2 and I’m obviously 0-2 at this point. But with its back against the wall, I think Anaheim finds a way to get the job done in Game 3.

I will admit, I’m obviously surprised at how well the younger Oilers have played to this point. Momentum is a very real, almost tangible factor at times in sports (especially in the playoffs) and Edmonton would seemingly have it on its side.

But I’m not writing off Anaheim quite yet. The Ducks steamrolled the Flames in four straight games, but have been caught a little flat-footed against the speedy Oilers.

Now that the series has shifted North of the border, I think we’re going to see a much more aggressive attack from this veteran laden Anaheim team.

So far Cam Talbot has gotten the better of John Gibson in net, but I still firmly believe that the goaltenders are completely even in this series. 

The trends also support us here, as note that the Ducks are 10-5 (+5.6 units) this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while the Oilers are just 7-8 (-2 units) this year after playing three consecutive road games and only 7-9 (-4 units) after a three game unbeaten streak.

Anaheim outshot Edmonton 40-23 in Game 3 and it’s now outshot the Oilers in both games. Something has to give tonight and as this is essentially a “do-or-die” game for the Ducks, I think the correct call is on the visitors tonight. Play on Anaheim.

Good luck…Larry

My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (8:00 EST).

I played on the Penguins in Game 1 and I think they’re going to roll in Game 2 as well.

These teams are very familiar with each other and for the most part, they’re pretty much even across the board. Goaltending is a “wash” in my opinion.

The Pens have a bit more depth on the offensive side of the ice though, which I think will once again prove to be too much for Washington to overcome.

The numbers/trends also heavily favor Pittsburgh in this one, as note that the Pens are 10-6 (+2.1 units) in their last 16 when leading in a playoff series, while the Capitals are only 5-9 (-4.9 units) in their last 14 in the second round of the playoffs.

The value is simply too good to turn down, play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck…Larry