My 9* NFC 'Least' Game of the Month is on the NY Giants at 8:20 ET.

The Washington Football Team won the NFC East in 2020 at 7-9, earning the division the moniker of NFC 'Least.' In the just completed preseason, Washington was the ONLY team in the NFC East to win a game, going 1-2 SU but 0-3 ATS. As for the Cowboys, Eagles and Giants, they combined to go 0-9-1. How did things go in Week 1? The Eagles won impressively 32-6 in Atlanta and the Cowboys lost 31-29 at Tampa Bay on a last-second FG, but Washington and New York both lost (0-2 ATS).

The Giants travel to D.C. off a 27-13 home loss to Denver, a game in which QB Daniel Jones scored on a 4-yard TD run with no time left on the clock. Washington's defense was the reason it won the division last season but that D allowed the Chargers to gain 424 yards and most notably, to convert 14 of 19 third down attempts. Ryan Fitzpatrick suffered a hip injury early on (3 of 56 for 13 yards) and it looks as if Taylor Heinicke (from the FB powerhouse of Old Dominion) will be Thursday night's starting QB. It's a short week but I like the Giants. Daniel Jones looked OK, as he had 267 passing yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions (37 attempts. However, the Giants NEED a return to form by Saquan Barkley (10 carries for 26 yards).

The Giants have 'owned' this series lately, winning the last FIVE (4-1 ATS). Want more? The Giants are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 on the road, while the Washington Football team is just 1-5 against the spread in its last six when playing the role of favorite. I expect an outright but grab as many points as you can, The play is New York.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic play is on Bal/LV Under at 8:15 ET.

Baltimore has a really good team. It has a dynamic offense that averaged 29.3 points per game last year.

The offense is run by LaMar Jackson, who had 2,757 yards, 26 TDs, and nine INTs last year. He also led the team with 1,005 rushing yards and seven touchdowns.

But how will Baltimore adjust after losing Marcus Peters, J.K. Dobbins, Justice Hill, and Gus Edwards to injury ALL in the last week?!

That's obviously the big question Baltimore was one of the best on the defensive side of the ball last season, finishing by conceding just 18.9 PPG.

This tough Ravens' defense will be tasked to slow down Derrick Carr, who had 4,103 yards passing, 27 TDs, and nine INTs last year. Las Vegas also has a strong run game with Josh Jacobs, who had 1,065 rushing yards and 12 major scores last year.

If Jon Gruden is going to make the playoffs with his new team for the first time in four years, clearly Las Vegas has to address its issues on the defensive end, a unit that conceded 29.9 PPG last year.

I don't think Harbrough wants to let Gruden and the Raiders control the tempo. Baltimore wants to wear this home side down and win the war in the trenches and with great field position created by its defense.

There are many different variable factors at play here that make me believe we'll see a low-scoring defensive game, rather than a high-scoring shootout.

The play is the under.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic is on the Chicago Bears.

Both teams are starting new quarterbacks. Matthew Stafford is going to have his hands full now that he's out of the dome in Detroit and amidst the difficult NFC West.

Andy Dalton will get the call to start off with in Chicago, with Justin Fields as a very capable backup ready to step in if needed.

I think the Bears veteran can match Rams' new QB Matthew Stafford's performance (who will face his former team the Lions in Week 7.) The Rams also have to still fill the void left by Cam Akers, who was lost to a torn Achilles.

Granted, the Rams have bigger playmakers on both sides of the ball, but I'm not convinced that Stafford is going to be able to seamlessly fit into this West Coast offense and Conference overall.

The Rams also have to transition for a tricky non-conference road game at Indianapolis next weekend, before then returning home to host the defending champs.

The Bears on the other hand have a very manageable early schedule, which sees them return home to face the Bengals next, followed by the Browns and Lions.

All games are important in a 17 game season, but the Bears will be looking really good if they can manage to pull off a road upset here.

One final thing, Chicago is 7-3 ATS in its last ten NFC road games as an underdog in the +6.5 to +8.5 points range.

I'm not calling for the outright. But everything points to this one coming right down to the wire.

As such, grab as many points as you can.

Good luck...Larry

My AFC 10* Game of the Month is on the Cle Browns at 4:25 ET.

Both teams are predicted to do well this season. Obviously, that's no surprise for KC but it looks as if Cleveland has finally "turned the corner." The Chiefs have exceeded their O/U season win total eight seasons in a row.

 They're a +445 favorite to win Super Bowl 56 and +234 leader to repeat as conference Champion.

These teams played here last season in the divisional round of the playoffs, and Kansas City had to hold on for dear life in the 22-17 victory. Chiefs' star QB Patrick Mahomes left that one early with an injury.

What I do definitely think can't be ignored though, is that the road team is 4-0 ATS in the past four in this series, including the playoffs.

 Cleveland has gotten progressively better each of the last five seasons and that progression is going to continue this year. Especially on the defensive side of the ball, as it concentrated heavily in that department in the offseason, signing Jadeveon Clowney and drafting Northwestern cornerback Greg Newsome II at No. 26 overall.

 This is a big contract year for Browns' QB Baker Mayfield. He'll benefit from a 100% healthy Odell Beckham Jr. Note that Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road underdog.

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will once again be contending at the end of the season. Of course, they will be. I won't try and bash Kansas City, it's obviously one of the best in the entire league and as long as Mahomes stays healthy, a Super Bowl victory is definitely a very real possibility again.

However, KC went just 8-11 ATS last year including the playoffs.

 Anything can happen in Week 1. It's unpredictable. The bottom line is, I think that Mayfield has the offense around him to keep pace with Mahomes.

 In a contest that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL Week 1 Featured Sunday Total is a 9* on Buf/Pit Under at 1:00 ET.

Pittsburgh did well in the preseason, but without really addressing many issues across its offensive line in the offseason, many experts believe the Steelers are poised for a major step-back this year.

Clearly, Ben Roethlisberer isn't getting any younger or more mobile, and I think he's going to be running for his life today against this revamped Buffalo pass rush in its first game of the season in front of the hometown crowd.

Steelers' veteran head coach Mike Tomlin knows this though. And so we can expect the visiting side to run the ball early and often. This will also keep this potent Buffalo offense off the field as long as possible as well.

Pittsburgh's strength last year was on the defensive side of the ball and that'll once again be the case this season.

Buffalo has a Top-5 QB in Josh Allen. Stefon Diggs put up huge numbers in his first season with the Bills last year. But with a Week 2 matchup at division rival Miami in Week 2, the temptation to look ahead and be planning for that one is there as well for the home side.

This is an explosive Buffalo offense, but it faces one of the stiffest defenses it'll see all season right out of the gates. If the Bills want to take the next step though, clearly they'll have to once again make strides on the defensive side of the ball.

I expect a lot of running from each side. Also some hard-hosed defensive play.

This total is more than a little too high. The play is the under.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Jax Jaguars at 1:00 ET.

Full, detailed analysis Monday afternoon by 3:00 ET.

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Seattle at 1:00 ET.

Seattle has made the playoffs in EIGHT of the last nine years. The 'Hawks won 12 games last year.

The Colts also made the playoffs last season, while winning 11 games.

Seattle is a difficult offensive team for anyone to handle and it all starts with QB Russell Wilson. He has plenty of 'weapons' around him, including RB Chris Carson and WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

The Seahawks have a strong defense as well, one which includes Bobby Wagner, Quandre Diggs, and DJ Reed. Seattle is poised for a big year defensively, many feel a unit that could rival the famed "Legion Of Boom."

The Colts played amazingly well with Philip Rivers under center last year, but Carson Wentz will be the FOURTH new starting QB for Indianapolis in the last four seasons. RB Johnathan Taylor was big last year, and the defense was a strength as well for Indianapolis.

Seattle comes in as the road favorite, meaning oddsmakers would make them about a TD favorite on a neutral field.

I'd agree with that plus Seattle owns a distinct advantage at the QB position.

Wentz has struggled the last few seasons, and he's on a new team under a new system and I just can't see him keeping pace with Wilson's offense down the stretch.

Lay the short price. The play is Seattle.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Week 1 Season-Opener is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:20 ET.

Did anyone think the Buccaneers were really going to win the Super Bowl last year?

They were one of the early favorites, but not many would have predicted Tampa winning the Super Bowl after about Week 14.

Does anyone think Tampa can repeat? Even for the best teams of all time, repeating as NFL champion is an unbelievably difficult thing to do.

The Bucs though are once again one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season and while Tom Brady and company may indeed go on to do just that, I think they'll have their hands full with Dak Prescott and a Cowboys team that will collectively be playing with a chip on their shoulders this season.

Prescott got injured early on last year and the Cowboys went on to finish 6-10. The offense was decent even without Prescott in, but the problem for the Cowboys was on the other side of the ball.

Dallas was active in the offseason to address several defensive issues, and I expect a dramatic improvement. Keep your eyes on Micah Parsons, who could easily win Defensive Player of the Year this season.

What more can I say about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that hasn't been said a million times already? If you're wagering on this game, then you almost assuredly already know the strengths and weaknesses of the Buccaneers, also the cast of characters in all three phases, and the coaching staff as well.

So why will Brady and Bruce Arians get caught "looking past" the Cowboys on Opening night?

Tampa could be caught flat-footed here out of the gate, as it faces a relatively "simple" opening schedule, with Atlanta coming to town next Sunday, followed by road games at the Rams and Patriots.

Dallas on the other hand has two straight road games to open the season, including a tough one at the Chargers in Week 2.

I think Prescott and the Cowboys throw their best show in Week 1. I also expect the Dallas defense to be vastly improved this season.

Will those things combine to deliver an outright victory for the visiting side in the Champs house?

Probably not, but I do expect this one to be competitive until the final moments. These teams last met in 2018 when Dallas beat Tampa Bay for the 7th time in the last eight matchups. Is that old news? Yes, but this is NOT. The Bucs are on just a 7-19-2 ATS run as a non-division home favorite.

As such, grab the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET.

Super Bowl 55 will not be a rematch of the first-ever Super Bowl (Kansas City/Green Bay on Jan 15, 1967) but one would be hard-pressed to argue against the fact that this is one of the most-anticipated matchups of all-time. Tom Brady left New England and Bill Belichick in his rearview mirror and while the Pats failed to win the AFC East for the first time since 2008 by going 7-9 (Belichik's only other losing season in New England came in his first season with the Pats in 2000), Brady led one of the NFL's biggest losers (Tampa Bay) to its second-ever Super Bowl. Brady is now in his 10th Super Bowl (six wins in his first nine tries), where the G.O.A.T. will take on the defending champion Chiefs, led by Patrick Mahomes who many (most?) believe is the "G.O.A.T in Waiting."

Mahomes and the Chiefs ended last season with NINE straight wins, including a 3-0 run in the playoffs. Mahomes led the Chiefs to a 14-1 record through 16 weeks in 202 and then sat out Week 17 since KC had clinched the No. 1 seed. The Chiefs began their postseason defense of last year's Super Bowl title by scoring on each of their four first-half possessions while generating 293 yards to build a 19-3 halftime margin over the Browns. Mahomes was KO'd in the 3rd quarter but KC held on for a 22-17 win. Mahomes wasn't cleared to play until Friday for e the AFC championship game and while the Bills led 9-0 after one quarter, the Chiefs would outscore the Bills 38-6 to take a commanding 38-15 lead by the mid-4th quarter (38-24 final). Mahomes threw for 325 yards with three TDs and zero INTs, after completing 21 of 30 for 255 yards and one TD (no INTs) and a rushing TD against the Browns. TE Kelce caught 105 passes for 1,416 yards (11 TDs) during the regular season and has added 21 catches and three TDs in two playoff games. WR Hill caught 87 passes for 1,276 yards with 15 TDs (plus two rushing TDs) in the regular season, while catching 17 balls in two playoff games to average 16.6 YPC. Rookie RB Edwards-Helaire (803 yards) has been a non-factor in the playoffs but Darel Wiliams has run for 130 yards on 5.0 YPC.

Brady had two TD passes and 381 yards vs Washington but in wins over the Saints (54.5% for 199 yards with 2 TDs and 0 INTs) and Packers (55.6% for 280 yards with 3 TDs and 3 INTs), has not produced vintage Brady efforts. RB Aaron Jones has been limited to 78 yards on 3.4 YPC by injury (ran for 978 yards on 5.1 YPC and 7 TDs in the regular season) but Fournette has "turned back time" rushing for 211 yards and two TDs, while catching 14 passes with one TD. SIX players have caught Brady's seven playoff TD passes. Evans has two TDs (10 catches / 17.3 YPC), Godwin matches Fournette with 14 postseason catches (15.9 YPC / 1 TD) and TE Brate has 11 catches and one TD. Tampa Bay's defense has been superb in winning THREE straight road games. It held Washington to 289 yards, the Saints to 294 yards (forced four turnovers, including three INTs of Brees) and then shutting down Green Bay's running game (67 yards) while sacking Rodgers FIVE times. 

Yes, Tampa Bay is the first team to ever host a Super Bowl game but in the "Year of COVID," is that really an edge? Brady's career and especially his success in the postseason is without peer but his efforts against the Saints and the Packers were FAR from impressive (see above).  Meanwhile, Mahomes has put up remarkable numbers in his first three full seasons as a starter, going 37-8 with 114 TD passes and just 23 INTs in attempts. He's 6-1 in his seven career postseason games, throwing 17 TDs and just two INTs for a 109.8 QB rating. It's MORE than fair to point out that prior to KC's 38-24 win in the AFC championship game that the Chiefs were on a 1-8 or 0-8-1 ATS run but it's equally fair to counter with the fact that Mahomes enters the Super Bowl having gone 25-1 SU in his last 26 starts (including the postseason). Tampa Bay's defense will NOT be able to contain Mahomes and the Chiefs' offense. Mahomes has a LONG way to go to surpass (if ever can) Brady's career accomplishments but this Super Sunday belongs to the 25-year-old. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Chiefs at 6:40 ET.

Buffalo QB Josh Allen did not have a big day against the Ravens (206 passing yards / one TD) and the Bills ran for just 32 yards but the Buffalo D held Baltimore's running game in check. CB Taron Johnson literally "stole the show" when he picked off Lamar Jackson and returned it 101 yards for a TD in the late third, breaking Baltimore's back. Buffalo's 17-3 win allowed the Bills to advance to the AFC championship game for the first time since 1994. The Bills head to KC on an EIGHT-game winning streak and have won 11 of 12 (lone loss was the result of that 'Hail Mary' miracle at Arizona in Week 10). 

Patrick Mahomes hadn't played in 21 days (since the Chiefs clinched the AFC's top seed in Week 16) when he took the field last Sunday against the Browns. However, the Chiefs began their postseason defense of last year's Super Bowl title by scoring on each of their FOUR first-half possessions while generating 293 yards to build a 19-3 halftime margin. Mahomes completed 11 of his first 12 passes and was 19 of 25 for 233 yards by halftime. Mahomes was KO'd from the game in the third quarter and the Chiefs had to hold on for a 22-17 win. Mahomes will take the field Sunday having won his last 11 starts, as KC becomes the first AFC team to host three consecutive conference title games. 

The good news for the Kansas City Chiefs is that Patrick Mahomes is planning to play. Mahomes said Friday that he is out of concussion protocol and is ready to start Sunday's game/ "Talking to all of the doctors and going through all of the testing, we have the belief that I'll have no lingering effects and I'll be able to go out there and be who I am,'' said Mahomes, who practiced for the third consecutive day on Friday. Buffalo QB Josh Allen and the Bills lost a 27-16 Week 6 home game to the Chiefs but have since won EIGHT straight and 11 of 12. Allen joins Mahomes plus legends Brady and Rodgers in the NFL's 'Final 4' and has had a season worthy of being in the same class as his counterparts. He completed 69.2 percent in the regular season for 4,544 yards (had EIGHT 300-yard games) with 37 TDs and just 10 INTs (107.2 QB rating). The Bill's running game (107.7 YPG ranks 20th) is suspect but the addition of Stefon Diggs was HUGE. Diggs' All-Pro season included NFL highs of 127 catches and 1,535 yards (also eight TDs). Fellow WR Beasley added a career-high 82 catches.

Mahomes didn't play in the Chiefs' last regular-season game after they had already clinched the AFC's No. 1 seed. He finished completing 66.3% for 4,740 yards with 38 TDs and just six INTs (QB rating 108.2). KC's running game was not much better than Buffalo's (121.4 YPG) but rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire (803 yards / 4.4 YPC) is expected back after missing the Cleveland game with an ankle injury. KC has GREAT depth at receiver but Sammy Watkins (slowed by injuries all season) is expected to play here, joining an outstanding group led by All-World TE Kelce (105 catches / 1,416 yards / 11 TDs) and WR Hill (87 catches / 15 TDs).

The Bills were not up to the challenge of playing the Chiefs in Week 6 (in Buffalo), as KC held them to 206 total yards. Allen had a season-low 122 passing yards, the team ran for just 84 yards and Diggs had six catches but for only 46 yards. Meanwhile, Mahomes went 21 of 26 for 225 yards with two TDs and no INTs (128.4 QB rating) and Edwards-Helaire ran for 161 yards! Kansas City ended last season winning its final NINE games (including the playoffs) and is 15-2 this season, after beating Cleveland. That's 24-2 SU and KC is just a three-point favorite here at home (Mahomes 'situation' has kept the number this low). I noted that Mahomes has won his last 11 starts (how about 24-1 over his last 25?) and in his five career home starts in the playoffs, has 15 TDs against zero INTs. That's good enough for me to back KC.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Playoff Game of the Year is on the GB Packers at 3:05 ET.

Tom Brady and the Bucs' offense turned three of four Saints turnovers into TDs and Tampa Bay beat the Saints 30-20 in the divisional round of the playoffs Sunday night at New Orleans. The Saints had beaten the Bucs in BOTH regular season meetings, 34-24 at home in Week 1 and then 38-3 at Tampa in Week 9. Two of those TDs came on short passes to WR Mike Evans and RB Leonard Fournette. Then, after an interception by LB Devin White, Brady drove the Bucs to the one-yard-line, from where he scored himself with 4:57 left to virtually ensure his 14th trip to a conference championship game but his first in the NFC. Brady finished 18 of 33 for 199 yards with two TD passes and that TD run. The 30-20 Tampa Bay win resembled more of a defensive struggle, as the Bucs had a modest 316 total yards and the Saints had just 294. However, unlike in his previous two meetings with the Saints (five INTs and six sacks), Brady was not intercepted and largely avoided pressure, taking only one sack.

The Packers scored on each of their first five series and led the Rams 25-10 early in the third quarter. When all was said and done, the Rams' top-rated defense (had allowed 18.5 PPG on just 281.9 YPG) was shredded for 32 points on 484 yards, allowing 28 FDs (GB was 8 of 12 on 3rd downs). Rodgers threw for 296 yards with two TDs and no INTs (108.1 QB rating) plus had a one-yard TD run. The Green Bay defense held the Rams to just 244 yards, allowing LA to convert just 2 of 8 third downs (0-1 on 4th down). Green Bay has now won SEVEN in a row, holding its opponents to 18.4 PPG during that stretch. The Packers have reached the NFC championship game for the fourth time in seven seasons, as they chase their first Super Bowl berth in a decade (2010 season). It will be their first NFC title contest at Lambeau Field since hosting for the 2007 season, when they fell to the New York Giants 23-20 in overtime. Rodgers was on Green Bay's roster during that 2007 season backing up Brett Favre.

These teams met back in Week 6 in Tampa, with Buccaneers spotting the Packers an early 10-0 lead. However, Tampa Bay spent the remainder of the game dismantling Green Bay in a 38-10 beatdown! Aaron Rodgers threw two interceptions (one was returned for a TD) and was sacked four times. He completed just 16 of 35 passes while passing for just 160 yards and no TDs. His accuracy rate was 45.7% and his QB rating was 35. Both figures were season-lows and it is the ONLY time this season he didn't have a TD pass in a game. Rodgers ended the regular season completing 70.7% with 48 TDs (a franchise record) and just five INTs. His QB rating of 121,5 was the second-best of his career and the highest of any QB this season. The Green Bay offense led the NFL in scoring at 31.8 PPG and also committed the fewest TOs (11). WR Davante Adams is the first player in NFL history to have at least 100 receptions with 18 receiving TDs in a season, as he finished with 115 receptions and 18 TDs in just 14 games. TE Tonyan had 52 catches (11 TDs), while RB Jones added 47 catches and two TDs. Like Adams, Jones missed two games but ran for 1,104 yards (5.5 YPC) and scored 11 rushing TDs.

Brady didn't dominate that Week 6 win over Green Bay, passing for a season-low 166 yards (2 TDs and zero INTs). Brady was also far from great vs New Orleans (see above). However, the 43-year-old has been performing like someone younger all season, passing for 4,633 yards while setting a franchise record with 40 TD passes in the regular season. He transformed a losing franchise (Tampa's last playoff appearance came back in 2007) in leading the Bucs to their first NFC championship contest since the 2002 season. The Buccaneers posted a 27-10 win over the host Philadelphia Eagles and went on to rout the then-Oakland Raiders 48-21 in the Super Bowl. Tampa Bay's only other NFC championship game appearance came in the 1979 season. RB Ronald Jones ran for 978 yards in the regular season (5.1 YPC / 7 TDs) and WR Evans had 70 catches for 1,006 yards (13 TDs). However, both Jones and Evans are questionable, as is WR Godwin (65 catches / 7 TDs in the regular season).

Brady's career speaks for itself. He's a six-time Super Bowl champ and will be playing in his 14th career league championship final (9-4 in the AFC with the Pats). However, I believe Rodgers will be the best QB on the field and has ALL his 'weapons,' while more than a few key Tampa Bay offensive players will be far less than 100% if they can even play. The Buccaneers have won SEVEN straight road games as they enter hallowed Lambeau Field and while Brady's familiar with cold-weather playoff games with New England. Weather reports forecast a 50-percent chance of snow. That's Green Bay weather, NOT Tampa Bay weather. Throw in a HUGE revenge motive and this three-point line seems 'cheap.'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the KC Chiefs at 3:05 ET.

Full, detailed analysis Saturday afternoon by 3:00 ET.

My 9* "Battle of the Bs" is on the Bal Ravens at 8:15 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens ended last season on a 12-game winning streak and entered the 2019 postseason 14-2 as the AFC's No. 1 seed. However, the Ravens lost 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites. The two teams met in Week 11 of the 2020 season (again in Baltimore) and even with that playoff revenge, the Ravens blew a 21-10 third-quarter lead in a 30-24 OT loss. The Ravens were just 6-5 after their Week 12 loss to Pittsburgh but would go on a 5-0 SU & ATS run to finish 11-5 and earn the AFC's No. 5 seed. The Ravens drew the 4th-seeded Titans in the Wild Card round last Sunday and the THIRD time was 'the charm!' The Ravens fell behind 10-0 in the first quarter but dominated the rest of the way in winning 20-13. Lamar Jackson finally got his first postseason victory (0-2), running for 136 yards and a 48-yard TD while throwing for 179 yards. The Baltimore D held Tennessee to its fewest points all season and smothered 2,000-yard rusher Derrick Henry. Henry had run all over the Ravens with 328 yards rushing combined in the last two meetings but had his worst performance of the season, gaining only 40 yards on 18 carries.

It's been a season to remember for Buffalo in 2020. QB Josh Allen set franchise records of 4,544 passing yards and 37 TDs as well as helping provide a new identity to a rising team that posted the franchise's best victory total since 1991 in going 13-3. The Bills won the AFC East for the first time since 1995 but entered their game with the Colts having lost their last SIX playoff contests since last winning a postseason game following the 1995 season. The Bills' 27-24 win over the Colts snapped that 0-6 postseason skid, winning their first playoff game since a 37-22 win over Miami on Dec 30, 1995. Allen passed for 324 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (121.6 QB rating), while leading the team in rushing with 54 yards and a TD. He's in just this third season but in two playoff games, has become only the FIFTH player since at least 1940 to score a touchdown rushing, passing and receiving in his playoff career (he scored on a 16-yard catch from John Brown in a 22-19 OT loss at Houston a year ago).

Baltimore's Jackson became the first QB in NFL history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in multiple seasons in Baltimore's 38-3 win at Cincinnati in Week 17. Jackson rushed for 97 yards on 11 carries to give him 1,005 yards for the season. The Ravens finished with 404 rushing yards in that contest and led the NFL in rushing for the second straight season (191.9 YPG). How good is the Ravens' running game? It ran for 1,573 yards during its current 6-0 SU & ATS streak, which is more than SIX teams ran for all season! The Ravens are only the third team in NFL history to have three players top 700 yards rushing in a single season with Jackson (1,005 yards), rookie J.K. Dobbins (805) and Gus Edwards (723). Baltimore's defense finished second to the Rams in allowing just 18.9 PPG on the season. 

Allen's OUTSTANDING season was sure helped by the signing of WR Stefon Diggs, who caught 127 passes for 1,535 yards and eight TDs in the regular season. He then caught six passes for 128 yards (one TD) vs Indy. Fellow WR Beasley had a career season, catching 82 passes (4 TDs) for 967 yards. Beasley caught seven passes vs the Colts. However, there is a slight concern that BOTH Diggs (oblique) and Beasley (knee) have been somewhat limited this week in practice.

It's true that Buffalo enters on a SEVEN-game winning streak and has won 10 of 11, losing only at Arizona when Murray and Hopkins connected on that improbable "Hail Mary." That said, Baltimore has been playing with a win-or-done urgency since early December, following a 1-4 skid that dropped it to 6-5. The Ravens were depleted by a COVID-19 outbreak in a 19-14 loss at Pittsburgh (but covered), before reeling off six consecutive wins and seven straight ATS wins. The Ravens are 'on a mission of redemption' from last season and it WON'T end here in Buffalo. Hey, maybe the Ravens can get the Browns to upset the Chiefs, meaning Baltimore would host the AFC championship game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on the GB Packers at 4:35 ET.

The Rams started undrafted rookie QB John Wolford at Seattle last week due to Jared Goff's thumb injury but they beat the NFC West champion Seahawks by battering Russell Wilson and avoiding mistakes. The Rams allowed the fewest points (18.5 PPG) and total yards (281.9 YPG) during the regular season and allowed Seattle just 278 total yards and 11 FDs, while holding them to 20 points. Russell Wilson completed only 11 of 27 (40.7%) for 174 yards with two TDS, while throwing a "pick-6" and getting sacked FIVE times (QB rating of 72.1)! Wilson finished the regular season having completed 68.8% for almost 300 YPG with 40 TDs and just 13 INTs with a QB rating of 105.1. 

The victory came at a price though. Wolford was KO'd in the game and the Rams will go back to starter Jeff Goff, who is less than three weeks removed from thumb surgery. Goff was nowhere near 100% last Saturday, completing 9 of 19 for 1555 yards with one TD and zero INTs. What's more, defensive tackle Aaron Donald (ribs) and leading WR Cooper Kupp (knee) were injured. The Rams have expressed confidence that Donald, a six-time All-Pro, will play Saturday. Head coach Sean McVay said that "unless something unforeseen happens, the Terminator will be ready." Kupp (92 catches) also insists he'll play. He's joined by fellow WR Woods (90 catches / six TDs) to give LA an outstanding WR duo. The Rams' most important offensive players right now might be rookie RB Cam Akers and left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Although both are recovering from recent injuries, they're the keys to a revitalized ground game that racked up 164 yards rushing last week. Akers missed Week 16 and had just 34 yards on 21 attempts in Week 17, before rushing for 131 yards and one TD vs Seattle.

The Rams come to Lambeau to face Aaron Rodgers and a Green Bay offense that led the NFL in scoring at 31.8 PPG and also committed the fewest TOs (11). Rodgers was consistently GREAT in 2020, leading the NFL with 48 TDs, a 70.7 percent completion rate, a 121.5 passer rating, a league-tying-low five INTs. He's the overwhelming favorite to win the MVP award. WR Davante Adams is the first player in NFL history to have at least 100 receptions with 18 receiving TDs in a season, as he finished with 115 receptions and 18 TDs in just 14 games. TE Tonyan had 52 catches (11 TDs), while RB Jones added 47 catches and two TDs. Like Adams, Jones missed two games but ran for 1,104 yards (5.5 YPC) and scored 11 rushing TDs.

Green Bay lost a Nov 22 game at Indianapolis to the Colts in Week 11 (34-31) but has won SIX in a row since. Green Bay averaged 33.5 PPG during its winning streak and its defense also played very well, allowing only 18.5 PPG. The Packers will be playing a home game in front of paying spectators for the first time this season. The Lambeau Field crowd will include about 6,500 season-ticket holders as well as invited frontline health-care workers and first responders plus a league-mandated allotment for the visiting team. "That's going to help us, give us an extra added home-field advantage that we need, just bringing that extra juice," Packers running back Aaron Jones said. Most importantly, it will be 'Green Bay weather' on Saturday, with temps around freezing or below. Goff has only played two playoff games with temps under 32 degrees and has FIVE interceptions and zero TDs. Rodgers has 40 TDs and just 12 INTs in his 18 postseason games. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Wild Card Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 8:15 ET.

The Cleveland Browns clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2002 with a 24-22 win over the visiting Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday. The 11-5 Browns snapped the NFL's longest current playoff drought, making the playoffs for the first time since 2002. RB Nick Chubb rushed for 108 yards and a touchdown, ending the season with 1,067 (5.6 YPC) with 12 TDs, despite playing in only 12 games. QB Baker Mayfield completed 17 of 27 passes for 196 yards and a TD and also rushed for a season-high 44 yards. Pittsburgh had clinched the AFC North and a playoff spot in Week 16, so they rested Ben Roethlisberger. Mason Rudolph got the start and completed 22 of 39 passes for 315 yards with two TDs and one INT. Now, one week later, the third-seeded Steelers and sixth-seeded Browns will "do it all over again" Sunday night in Pittsburgh.

Mayfield had a promising rookie season but regressed in 2019, with 22 TDs and 21 INTs for a QB rating of just 78.8. However, he got better throughout the season and finished with 26 TDs and 8 INTs for a 95.9 QB rating in 2020. Chubb (see above) and Hunt (842 yards on 4.2 YPC with six TDs) have given Cleveland excellent balance, as Cleveland's running game comes in averaging 148.3 YPG on the ground (3rd-best). The Cleveland defense got slightly better as the season wore on but finished allowing 26.2 PPG (21st).

The 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger bounced back from elbow surgery a year ago to complete 65.6% for 3,803 yards with 33 TDs and only 10 INTs in 15 games. The running game ranks last in the NFL (84.4 YPG) but "Big Ben" has an OUTSTANDING group of receivers. Schuster-Smith leads with 97 catches (9 TDs) but fellow WRs like Johnson (88 catches / 7 TDs), Claypool (62 catches / 9 TDs) and Washington (just 30 catches but five TDs) give Big Ben a plethora of options.  The offense has averaged just 334.6 YPG (25th) but has managed to average 26.0 PPG, 12th-best. However, defense remains Pittsburgh's 'calling card.' The Steelers' D enters having allowed 19.5 PPG (3rd) on 305.8 YPG (3rd). Pittsburgh's 56 sacks are No. 1 in the NFL.

The Browns are back in the playoffs for the first time since 2002 but the franchise's last playoff win came way back in 1994! First-year Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski, whose leadership helped end Cleveland's playoff drought, must now 'watch from afar,' after testing positive for COVID. I guess no AFC team would want to draw the Chiefs as its first playoff opponent but for the Browns, the LAST team they wanted was to face the Steelers, in a one-week turnaround, playing in Pittsburgh with "Big Ben back at QB. Contests between the Browns and Steelers have always been heated given the teams' proximity and history but the Steelers have dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 28-5-1 SU record! Cleveland's postseason return lasts ONE game. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Bal Ravens at 1:05 ET.

Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites.

These teams met in Week 11 of the 2020 season (again in Baltimore) and even with that playoff revenge, the Ravens blew a 21-10 third-quarter lead in a 30-24 OT loss. The Ravens were just 6-5 after their Week 12 loss to Pittsburgh but would go on a 5-0 SU & ATS run to finish 11-5 and earn the AFC's No. 5 seed. The Titans battled the Indy Colts all season long for the AFC South title but clinched the division (via a tiebreaker) with a 41-38 win at Houston in Week 17. Derrick Henry rushed for a career-high 250 yards and became the eighth player in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 yards in a season, in Tennessee's Week 17 win, capped by Sam Sloman 37-yard FG on the final play (banked it in). QB Ryan Tannehill totaled three TDs.

Lamar Jackson became the first QB in NFL history to rush for at least 1,000 yards in multiple seasons in Baltimore's 38-3 win at Cincinnati. Jackson rushed for 97 yards on 11 carries to give him 1,005 yards for the season. The Ravens finished with 404 rushing yards, which was the fourth most by a team since 1950. Baltimore didn't quite match last year's rushing record but the Ravens did lead the NFL with 191.9 YPG on 5.5 YPC. Mark Ingram topped 1,000-yards last season but this season was replaced by rookie Dobbins (805 yards on 6.0 YPC with nine TDs) and Edwards (723 yards on 5.0 YPC with five TDs). Baltimore's defense finished No. 2 in points allowed (18.9 PPG).

Ryan Tannehill has had a career season by completing 65.5% for 3,819 yards with 33 TDs and seven INTs (106.5 QB rating). Henry had 2,027 yards rushing (5.4 YPC  / 17 TDs), as the Titans finished second to Baltimore with 168.1 YPG on the ground. WRs Brown (70 catches / 15.4 YPC / 11 TDs) and Davis (65 catches / 15.1 YPC / 5 TDs) team with TEs Smith (41 catches / 8 TDs) and Firkser (39 catches). The Tennessee D is no match for Baltimore's, allowing 27.4 PPG (24th) on 398.3 YPG (28th). That's 8.5 PPG  and about 70 YPG more.

The Ravens closing 5-0 SU & ATS run saw them outscore opponents on average, 37.2-to-17.8 PPG. Lamar Jackson has 'flopped' badly in two playoff games and I have to believe the "THIRD" time will be the charm.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:40 ET.

The 10-6 Rams (No. 6 seed) and the 12-4 Seahawks (No. 3 seed) meet for a third time this season in Seattle on Saturday The teams split their two meetings this season, with Los Angeles winning 23-16 on Nov 15 at home (Week 10), while the Seahawks 'returned the favor' with a 20-9 win in Seattle (Week 16). Los Angeles head coach Sean McVay was asked whether he had a timetable to determine his starting QB and replied, "Yeah," he said. "Saturday at 1:39."Jared Goff suffered a fractured right thumb in a 20-9 loss at Seattle on Dec.27 and had surgery the following day. John Wolford replaced Goff last weekend against Arizona, helping the Rams clinch a playoff berth with an 18-7 victory. Wolford completed 22 of 38 passes for 231 yards and rushed for a team-high 56 yards, becoming the first player in NFL history to throw for 200 and rush for 50 in their debut. Seattle has no QB concerns with Russell Wilson (4,212 yards / 40 TDs / 13 INTs).

"Jared is our starting quarterback -- the reality is that he had a thumb surgery," McVay said. "We're monitoring that every single day, and that's something we're taking a day at a time, but the anticipation is both those guys are getting themselves ready to go." Along with Goff, LA's top rusher Cam Akers (625 yards) is questionable with an ankle injury and fellow RBs Henderson and Brown had done little for weeks. Some good news is that WR Kupp (92 catches) is expected to play after missing Week 17 (COVID) and along with Woods (90 catches) give LA a strong WR duo. TEs Higbee  and Everett have combined for 85 catches with Higbee catching five TDs. Defense has been the key all season for the Rams, who ranks first in both scoring D (18.5 PPG) and total D (281.9 YPG). 

RB Chris Carson has been very solid the last six games with 358 yards on 4.8 YPC. He gives balance to a Seattle offense led by Wilson (see above) and the team's dynamic WR duo of Lockett (100 catches / 10 TDs) and Metcalf (83 catches / 10 TDs). Seattle opened 5-0 with Wilson and the offense overcoming the team's defensive woes. However, the Seahawks then lost THREE of four, before recovering with a 6-1 finish. Seattle's defense allowed 26.6 PPG over the first nine games of the season but in that 6-1 'finishing kick,' the 'Legion of Boom' moniker was applicable by allowing just 15.0 PPG!

Seattle won the NFC West title for the first time since 2016 and will host a playoff game for the first time since since January 2017. If Goff plays, he can't possibly be anywhere near 100% and a Wolford/Wilson showdown is a "no-contest!"

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* "Granddaddy of the Them All' Rivalry G.O.Y. on the GB Packers at 4:25 ET.

The Bears/Packers rivalry is the NFL's oldest, as two of the NFL's "Originals' meet for the 202nd time. Green Bay leads the series 100-95-6 but I'll have more to say about that a little later. The 12-3 Packers can clinch a first-round bye and the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a win or a tie against the Bears. The Packers can also get a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs if the 11-4 Seattle Seahawks lose or tie against the San Francisco 49ers. As for Chicago, 'Da Bears can clinch an NFC playoff berth with a win but there also are two other pathways for the Bears to secure a postseason spot. They need 8-7 Arizona to lose at the 9-6 Los Angeles Rams OR, if the Bears and Cardinals each finish Sunday's games with tie scores. Wouldn't that be some 'Daily Double?' Green Bay is on a five-game winning streak and Chicago on a three-game run. More on those streaks in a little bit, as well.

The 37year-old Aaron Rodgers has put up MVP-caliber numbers, completing 70.3% for 4,059 passing yards with 44 TDs and only five INTs. He has a 119.4 QB rating, which leads the league and is the second-best of his HOF career (122.5 QB rating in 2011). RB Jones has 1,062 rushing yards (5.6 YPC / 8 TDs) plus 43 catches for two more TDs. WR Adams has missed two games but has 109 catches for 1.328 yards with 17 TDs plus TE Tonyan's 50 catches and 10 TDs is a big improvement from LY's starter, Jimmy Graham. This balanced offense leads the NFL in scoring 31.6 PPG.

Mitchell Trubisky has played a key role in the late-season turnaround, after he was benched for veteran Nick Foles during a Week 3 game against the Atlanta Falcons. He reclaimed his starting job in Week 12 and has posted a 99.3 passer rating since then with 1,243 passing yards, 10 TDs and four INTs. Montgomery has run for 1,001 yards (4.4 YPC and 7 TDs) plus has 45 catches with another two TDs. WR Robinson has exactly 100 catches for 1,213 yards with six TDs and TE Jimmy Graham (remember that name?), has bounced back with a strong season, catching 48 passes for eight TDs.

Neither defense is anything special, with Green Bay allowing 23.5 PPG and Chicago giving up 22.3. Let me deal with the two teams' streaks. Green Bay is 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS, although both ATS losses have come in games the Packers won by SEVEN and EIGHT points (would have covered both at this point spread. Much has been made of Trubisky's and Chicago's late run but the team's 3-0 SU & ATS streak has come over the Jags, losers of 14 straight, the Vikings, losers of three straight and SIX straight ATS and the 4-11 Texans, losers of FOUR in a row going 1-3 ATS with the lone ATS win coming by a half-point!

As for recent head-to-head matchups, the Packers routed the Bears 41-25 at Lambeau in Week 12, as Rodgers threw four TDs (Bears led 41-10 entering the fourth quarter. The oldest rivalry in the NFL has been a rather one-sided affair in recent years, with Green Bay winning 18 of 21 against Chicago counting the postseason. As for games in which Rodgers  has started, the Packers are 20-5 (again, including the playoffs). It's been rumored that Trubisky's future with the Bears is tied to Chicago beating Green Bay in this one. If that's true, it's time to "Hit the Road, Mitch!"

Good luck...Larry 

My 9* Featured Sunday Total is on Arz/LAR Over at 4:25 ET.

The short-handed LA Rams (9-6) are home in Week 17 against NFC West rival Arizona (8-7). While the Rams are one game better than the Cardinals, they need a victory or a Chicago Bears (8-7) loss to the Green Bay Packers to make the playoff field. Meanwhile, the Cards are in a true win-or-go-home scenario. Beat the Rams and they are in the postseason for the first time since 2015. Lose, and the off season begins Sunday night.

The Cardinals were dealt a blow last week when they were completely taken out of their game in a 20-12 loss to the San Francisco 49ers. The defeat came after consecutive victories over the New York Giants and Philadelphia Eagles. QB Kyler Murray sustained a right leg injury on his final pass attempt Sunday but he WON'T miss here. "Yeah, I'll be playing," Murray said. "There's no holding back. If we lose, I'll be home chillin'. It's my leg. I'm fine. It's an opportunity that only we could ask for. It's an opportunity to play in the playoffs, get in and we're right where we want to be with everything that has happened this year." Murray's had a superb 'sophomore' season, completing 67.1% for 3,884 yards with 26 TDs and 12 INTs. He also has 816 rushing yards (on 6.2 YPC) with 11 TDs. RB Drake has blossomed in 2020 (919 yards and 10 TDs), giving Arizona the third-best running game in the league at 145.9 YPG. The Cardinals' defense has been outstanding at putting pressure on opposing QBs over the past three weeks. The "D" has 17 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, eight forced fumbles and 24 QB hits over that span. However, the defense has struggled overall, since Week 7. The Cards allowed just 18.7 PPG through their first six games but over their last nine, have allowed 28.7 (easy to see that's 10 more PPG!).

The Rams will be without QB Jared Goff, who sustained a thumb injury last Sunday at Seattle and underwent surgery. John Wolford, who has not taken a snap in a regular-season game, is scheduled to start for a team that has lost consecutive games. What's more, WR Cooper Kupp (92 catches / TDs) tested positive for COVID-19 and is out. Those are not the only issues the Rams are dealing with, as RB Darrell Henderson (high ankle sprain) is out while RB Malcolm Brown (shoulder) has been limited at practice. Rookie RB Cam Akers (ankle) will try to get back on the field after not playing against the Seahawks. The LA defense has been terrific all season, allowing 19.3 PGG (3rd) on 286.5 PPG (1st).

The situation looks dire for LA but head coach Sean McVay said, "I believe in this team. I trust in their mental toughness and I think that the overarching message is let's put everything that we have into this. Let's not be afraid to put it all out there one more time. Get back up off the mat and keep swinging and have no regrets no matter how this thing ends up." Recent history is sure on LA's side, as the Rams are on a perfect 7-0 SU & ATS run against the Cardinals (average MOV 21 points!), including a 38-28 victory in the desert (Week 13). We don't see over/under numbers this low very often and I'm expecting an excellent game from Murray and for the make-shift LA offense to score against an Arizona D which has been giving up plenty of points since late-October. Go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.

The 10-4 Tennessee Titans visit the 11-3 Green Bay Packers for a SNF matchup of first-place teams that pit the NFL's first- and third-ranked scoring offenses. Tennessee leads the league at 31.1 PPG and Green Bay is 'FAR' behind at 31.0. The Titans are tied with Indianapolis atop the AFC South (but hold the tiebreaker) plus will know well before they take the field if the Colts won or lost at Pittsburgh. As for the Packers, they already know the Saints moved to 11-4 with their rout of the Vikings on Christmas (Packers hold the head-to-head tiebreaker with New Orleans) plus will also know just before kickoff the result of the Rams/Seahawks contest. If the Rams win, Green Bay will clinch the NFC's No. 1 seed by beating the Titans.

The Titans made a run to the AFC championship game last season on the 'legs' of Derrick Henry and the "game management" skills of QB Ryan Tannehill. Henry's 'legs' remain as good as ever, as he leads the NFL with 1,679 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC with 15 TDs. What's been different on offense for Tennessee in 2020 has been the play of Tannehill. He's having a "career season," completing 66.5% for 3,482 yards with 31 TDs and just five INTs (QB rating is 110.4). The team's improved offense has made up for the Tennessee D allowing 25.8 PPG (up from 20.7 and 18.9 the previous two seasons) on 390.5 YPPG, which ranks 26th (about 45 YPG more than in 2019),

Green Bay's defense is allowing 24.2 PPG (14th) but just 337.7 YPG (8th). However, the Packers are counting on Aaron Rodgers and the offense to 'win the day!' Rodgers has completed 69.6% for 3,828 yards with 40 TDs and just four INTs, giving him an NFL-best QB rating of 118.0. It's just another 'ho-hum' season for the future Hall of Famer. WR Adams believes he ranks with the best in the business and may be right, with 98 catches for 15 TDs despite missing two games. TE Tonyan has 49 catches and 10 TDs. Aaron Jones is one of the league's better all-purpose backs, rushing for 968 yards on 5.4 YPC with 8 TDs plus catching 41 passes for another four TDs.

Since losing 34-17 at home to the Colts in Week 10, the Titans have won FOUR of five, averaging 37.4 PPG. The Titans and Packers have each committed a league-low NINE turnovers but the Packers haven't committed a turnover in their last FOUR games (Green Bay is 10-0 when it doesn't have a turnover!). The Packers are 13-2 SU at Lambeau field since the start of the 2019 season (7-1 LY / 6-1 TY) and REALLY want that No. 1 seed. "The Pack" can't control what Seattle does vs the Rams but they can "take care of business" here, in their final regular season game of 2020. That's the bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET.

How does one explain the Rams losing 23-20 at home last Sunday to the 0-13 NY Jets (as a 17 1/2-point favorite) when they had a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a win??? Were the Rams "looking ahead" to this game in Seattle with the Seahawks? "The only thing that makes you feel better is when you say, ‘All right, let's learn from it, let's own it, and let's move forward accordingly,'" Rams head coach Sean McVay said. "Because dwelling on it or getting still (ticked) off about it really doesn't do you any good for how you move forward." Here's the bottom line. The Rams won the first meeting against Seattle 23-16 back on Nov 15 in LA, as Jared Goff threw for 302 yards and Malcolm Brown rushed for a pair of TDs. That means the Rams would own the first tiebreaker against the Seahawks should they win Sunday to sweep the season series and go into the final week with matching 10-5 records. Speaking of clinching a playoff spot, the Seahawks did just that, holding on for a 20-15 win at Washington, in a game that was NOT as close as the final. Seattle has now clinched its NINTH playoff berth in head coach Pete Carroll's 11 seasons. "(That) was a really big weekend for us," Carroll said. "Real happy with the game that we put together, the way that the whole approach of it worked out well. We got the win that we were looking for and we got a little bit of help too, the Jets, getting their game. All of that adds together and sets up a really big opportunity this weekend coming up."

Jared Goff has had a solid if unspectacular season, completing 68.0% for 3,718 yards with 20 TDs and 12 INTs. He has an excellent WR duo in Kupp (84 catches) and Woods (82) plus TEs Higbee and Everett have a combined 75 receptions (Higbee has 5 TD catches). The running game has NOT missed Gurley but the Rams will be without leading rusher Cam Akers (591 yards on 4.8 YPC), who suffered a high ankle sprain in the loss to New York. LA's in playoff position and has a chance to capture the NFC West because of its defense. The Rams allow just 19.2 PPG (3rd) on 286.1 YPG (1st). LA ranks first in allowing 192.0 YPG through the air and 2nd in allowing just 94.1 YPG on the ground. To win in Seattle, LA will need a great game from its defense.

Seattle jumped out to the best record in the NFC early on, then had a midseason swoon but back-to-back wnsn have them back on the cusp of winning the NFC West. QB Russell was near-perfect early on but then 'cooled off' but what is one's definition of cooling off? With two weeks to go, he's completed 70.2% for 3,806 yards with 37 TDs and 13 TDs plus has run for 475 yards on 6.3 YPC. He's got a terrific trio of WRs in Lockett (85 catches with 8 TDs), Metcalf (74 catches and 10 TDs) and Moore (33 catches / 6 TDs). As Carson (568 yards on 5.0 YCPC with 5 TDs / 32 catches with 5 TDs) has regained his health, the Seattle running game is again very good. Speaking of defense, Seattle allowed 30.4 PPG through its first eight games but has allowed just 16.0 PPG (that two TDs less per game!) over its last six.

CenturyLink Field has been easily one of the toughest home venues in the NFL and even with COVID restrictions taking away Seattle's "12th man" in 2020, the Seahawks are 6-1 SU at home this season. This contest is their final home game of the regular season and the Seahawks aren't just satisfied with a playoff berth (which they clinched last Sunday), as they haven't won an NFC West title since 2016 and haven't hosted a playoff game since January 2017. A win here (no pointspread to worry about) will give them the NFC West title and at least ONE home game in the postseason! "The Price is Sure Right" on the Seahawks.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

"Once upon a time" Pittsburgh was 11-0 and had some wondering that just maybe, the Steelers had a chance at a 16-0 regular season. However, the 'dream' ended in "unlucky" Week 13 at home vs Washington, 23-17. Now, after back-to-back losses at Buffalo and Cincinnati, Pittsburgh's 'dream season' is on the verge of turning into a 'nightmare!' The Steelers have fallen two games back of the Chiefs for the AFC's No. 1 and currently loses a tiebreaker with the 11-3 Bills for the No. 2 seed. A loss here to the Colts and Pittsburgh could wind up with the No. 4 seed. The Colts are tied with the Tennessee Titans at 10-4 but Tennessee holds the tiebreaker, meaning the Colts have slipped to the No. 6 seed, as they also lose a tiebreaker to the 10-4 Browns. Indy can't afford a slip up either, as both the Dolphins (current No. 7 seed) and Ravens are both 9-5. Yes, there is plenty on the line in this game.

While the Steelers have clinched a spot in the playoffs despite three straight losses, the Colts are surging, having won three in a row, as well as FIVE of six. Philip Rivers has delivered for Indy, as the team's major offseason FA signee has thrown for 3,753 (he'll top 4,000 yards for the EIGHTH straight season and 12th in his last 13) with 22 TDs and nine INTs. Rookie RB Taylor looked like a bust with just 428 rushing yards through his first nine games but he's averaged 103.5 YPG on 5.8 YPC over his last four (team is 4-0). Indy's defense checks in allowing 22.9 PPG (11th) on 334.1 YPG (7th) but I'll look a little closer into those numbers in my 'close!'

The 'wolves' are out after "Big Ben," as he's taken most of the blame for Pittsburgh's slump. It's fair to say he cannot throw the deep ball anymore but he does enter this game with 3,462 passing yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs on the season. He's got excellent depth in his WR corps, with Smith-Schuster catching 82 balls with 7 TDs, Johnson catching 77 with 6 TDs, rookie Claypool catching 53 with 8 TDs and Washington catching 28 with 5 TDs. TE Ebron has 51 catches but did miss practice (back) mid-week. However, RB Connor (663 yards on 4.3 YPC) did practice and should play. Snell (384 yards) filled in last week and had 84 yards, so while Connor's return would be nice, it's NOT a game-changer.

I believe the key is Pittsburgh defense. First let me go back for a 'peek inside' Indy's numbers. The Colts allowed just 14.0 PPG through their first four but their defense has been VERY mediocre since, allowing 26.4 PPG over its last 10 games. Pittsburgh's offensive woes are real, as the Steelers have averaged just 16.3 PPG in their three-game slide (also scored just 19 points vs a COVID-ravaged Baltimore team the week before the slide began) and "Big Ben" has averaged 178.5 YPG passing the last two games with three TDs and three TDs. However, the Pittsburgh defense has been at the top or right near it week after week. Pittsburgh currently ranks second in points allowed (18.9 per) and second in total D (297.9 YPG), while Its pass D also ranks second (193.3 YPG) and its rush D ranks 8th (104.6 YPG)

The game may be played without snow but it's going be VERY cold in Pittsburgh Friday and Saturday and Sunday's forecast doesn't expect temps to be much above freezing (good old-fashioned Steeler weather). Does it mean "all that much" that Pittsburgh has won SIX straight over Indy (5-1 ATS with a MOV of 14 points)? Maybe not, but it sure doesn't 'scare me away' from my Pittsburgh play!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:30 ET.

Much has changed since Arizona upset San Francisco 24-20 back in Week 1 of the 2020 season. The 49ers entered that game as the defending NFC champs (off a 13-3 regular season), while Arizona was coming off a 5-10-1 season but was looking forward to "what could be" with Kyler Murray coming off an impressive rookie season. However, as the teams get together for a rematch in Week 16, the 5-9 Niners are coming off a 41-33 loss to the Cowboys, a defeat that officially ended the team's postseason hopes. Meanwhile, the Cards beat the Eagles 33-26 last Sunday to get 8-6 and into the No. 7 seed in the NFC (final playoff spot). A final twist to this game is that BOTH teams will be playing on the State Farm Stadium field for the THIRD time in the last four weeks, as the 49ers have been forced to relocate from Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Ca, because of COVID-19 restrictions in the region. The 49ers have lost their first two 'home' games in Arizona, falling 34-24 in Week 13 to Buffalo 34-24 and then a week later 23-15 to Washington 23-15

The 49ers lost more than just a game that eliminated them from playoff contention against Dallas. The team's best (only?) RB Raheem Mostert has been ruled out for the season after aggravating a high ankle sprain in the loss, while QB Nick Mullens suffered an elbow injury that the 49ers fear could require Tommy John surgery. Mullens was not playing all that well in place of Jimmy G (12 TDs / 12 INTs) but with Garoppolo unlikely to get medical clearance to return to game action either this week or in the finale against Seattle (per head coach Kyle Shanahan), the last man standing appears to be C.J. Beathard. What's more, the San Francisco defense, which was so much a part of last season's run to the Super Bowl, has been riddled with injuries throughout the season and enters this contest having allowed 32.7 PPG during its recent three-game slide.

The Cardinals will take the field in third-place in the NFC West, two games behind Seattle (10-4) and one back of the Los Angeles Rams (9-5). The Rams are at Seattle this Sunday and if the Cards win, they would be just ONE game back of both teams if the Rams win or be tied with the Rams if they lose, going into their matchup in LA in Week 17. Best case scenario for the Cards would be a win and a Chicago loss at Jacksonville, which would clinch a playoff spot. However, the Jags are on a 13-game losing streak. Then again, so were the Jets until last week. Murray threw for a season-best 406 yards and three TDs in last week's home win over Philadelphia. He's thrown for 3,637 yards with 26 TDs and 11 TDs in 2020, while adding 741 rushing yards (6.0 YPC) with 11 TDs. RB Drake leads the team with 874 yards on 4.1 YPC (9 TDs), as the Cards rank 4th in the league averaging 147.8 YPG on the ground. WR Hopkins ranks with the best in the NFL, hauling in 103 passes with six TDs. The Cards D has struggled at times but overall, comes in allowing 23.5 PPG on the season (13th).

I'm assuming the 49ers won't take a chance on Jimmy G but if they do, he couldn't possibly be "ready for primetime." It's likely Beathard will start or maybe even Josh Rosen, who the Niners claimed off the Tampa Bay practice squad to serve as Beathard's backup (Can I vote for Rosen?). Murray should have little trouble against a San Francisco defense that gave up 41 points without forcing a TO against an Andy Dalton-led Dallas team. Meanwhile, the 49ers coughed it up FOUR times, giving them 29 giveaways and a minus-11 TO margin on the season (both rank 2nd-worst in the NFL next to the Broncos). The Cards win with ease and depending how a few other games turn out Sunday, should be in excellent shape for an important Week 17 game, as well as a wild card game the following weekend.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Magic play is on Pit/Cin Over at 8:15 ET.

NFL Week 15 concludes with the Steelers looking to break a two-game losing streak (after an 11-0 start) with a MNF contest in Cincinnati against the 2-10-1 Bengals. With the KC Chiefs moving to 13-1 with a win at New Orleans on Sunday and the Buffalo Bills moving to 11-3 with a Saturday win at Denver, the Steelers BADLY need a win here to move to 12-2. The Bengals should play "the perfect foil" but the Steelers can make a quick call to the Rams and ask how their game with the 0-13 Jets went on Sunday? Spoiler Alert, the Jets (+17) won 23-20 at the Rams, who fell out of first-place in the NFC West. The Bengals have scored just nine, seven and seven points in the three games since rookie QB Joe Burrow was lost for the season but also note that the Steelers have averaged only 18.0 PPG over their last three games, a 19-14 win over the COVID-ravaged Ravens plus back-to-back losses to Washington and Buffalo. 

The Steelers could have clinched the AFC North if the Browns had lost Sunday night at the Giants but Pittsburgh got NO help from the Giants, as the Browns won 20-6.  As noted above, the Steelers' offense had 'ground to a halt' and questions have swirled around veteran QB Ben Roethlisberger and whether he is reaching the end of his career after the Steelers have come to rely on the passing game but almost exclusively without throwing downfield. Pittsburgh's offensive coordinator Randy Fichtner said it has been difficult to work on the offense with three games in a 12-day span that ended with Sunday night's 26-15 loss at Buffalo. However, the Steelers haven't played since a week ago Sunday and I'm expecting Big Ben to have a HUGE game. After all, Big Ben has completed 66.2% for 3,292 yards with 29 TDs and just nine INTs on the season. Really, people are worried? The last time he faced the Bengals, he passed for 333 yards with four TDs (no INTs) in a 36-10 win. The running game doesn't do much of anything (89.1 YPG ranks 31st) but four WRs contribute plus TE Ebron has 51 catches and four TDs. Back to the WRs, it's Smith-Schuster 79 catches (7 TDs), Johnson with 69 catches (5 TDs), rookie Claypool with 50 catches (8 TDs) and Washington with just 28 catches but 5 TDs.

Cincy backup QB Brandon Allen (27 of 36 for 217 yards with one TD and no INTs last week) is nursing a knee injury and after starting the last three games for the Bengals, will give way to Ryan Finley (rookie from NC St), who will start against the Steelers, Finley has taken the first-team reps with the Bengals' offense in practice this week said head coach Zac Taylor on Saturday. Finley will have to face a Pittsburgh defense that ranks first in points allowed (18.2 PPG) on 303.1 YPG (3rd) and will NOT get any help from a running game averaging 92.3 YPG (30th). He does have a nice trio of WRs in Boyd (78 catches), Higgins (58) and the vet Green (41 catches).

My "over" call is not based on Cincy matching scores with Pittsburgh but rather with the Steelers' offense delivering a 'breakout' performance and for the Bengals to 'chip in' a couple of TDs, maybe even 17-plus points. Pittsburgh has won 10 straight in this series and make it 11 straight with the contest Goin' Over "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month is on the Mia Dolphins at 1:00 ET.

The 6-7 New England Pats are staring at what likely is their first non-playoff season since 2008, the last time they didn't win the AFC East. The AFC East winner that season was the 11-5 Miami Dolphins. Miami entered this season having not made the playoffs in 16 of the last 18 seasons but at 8-5, have a chance to claim a wild card spot in 2020. The Bills own a two-game lead over Miami in the division but the Dolphins are currently the No. 7 seed, although only by virtue of owning the tiebreaker over the 8-5 Ravens. However, the Dolphins are just ONE game back of the 5th-seeded Browns and 6th-seeded Titans, who are both 9-4.

Patriots QB Cam Newton, a former league MVP in 2015, is just 6-6 as a starter this season, throwing just five TD passes while getting intercepted 10 times (QB rating is a pathetic 78.9). He has run for 451 with 11 TDs and along with RB Harris (691 yards on 5.0 YPC) gives New England a very good running attack (147.5 YPG ranks 5th). However, Harris injured his back in the fourth quarter of Week 14's loss to the Los Angeles Rams and has been ruled out for Sunday. The receiving corps is one of the league's least impressive, with Edelman having not played since Oct 25. WRs Byrd and Mathis each have 42 catches but between the two, have just one TD catch!. New England's defense ranked first in scoring D (14.1 PPG) and total D (275.9 YPG) in 2019 but this year's unit is allowing 21,5 PPG (that's a full TD higher) on 342.9 YPG (about 70 YPG more per game).

Miami began the season with a 21-11 loss in Week 1 at New England, as veteran Ryan Fitzgerald was the starting QB. However, in the return matchup, Tua Tagovailoa, the No. 5 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft is under center. Despite a lack of healthy, front-line starters at RB, WR, TE or on the offensive line, Tagovailoa is 4-2 as a starter, throwing nine TDs against just one INT (95.2 QB rating). Miami's running game is mostly non-existent (95.2 YPG ranks 27th), so the fact Myles Gaskins 477 yards on 3.9 YPC) is out hardly matters much. TE Gesicki (44 catches / 8 TDs) is not expected to play (big loss) and WR Parker (56 catches / 8 TDs) is questionable. However, as noted above, Tua is making things happen despite missing key offensive players. Just ask KC, which saw him pass for 316 yards and two TDs in last Sunday's hard-fought 33-27 loss. 

While New England's defense is way off from last year, Miami's D ranks second in the league in allowing 18.8 PPG. Miami's 25 takeaways ties them for tops in the league with Pittsburgh, with the team's turnover margin of plus-10, being just ONE behind Pittsburgh's leading total of plus-11. Looking back at the Week 1 game, Fitzgerald threw THREE interceptions and still Miami trailed just 14-11 before a fourth quarter TD gave New England the 10-point win. The Pats are just 2-5 on the road, winning only at the 0-13 Jets (on a FG as time expired) and at the 5-9 Chargers. Meanwhile, the Dolphins own the NFL's best ATS record at 10-3, TWO games better than ANY team in the league. Even when the Pats were the division's dominant team the last three seasons, the Dolphins were able to beat them once each in 2019 (27-24 in New England), in 2018 34-33 in Miami) and 2017 (27-20 in Miami). This time around, the Dolphins are the better team and a win is NEEDED to hold the team's playoff position. Tua over Cam and Miami's defense over New England's.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

Tampa Bay (8-5) currently sits in sixth place in the NFC, after a 26-14 victory last week at home against Minnesota. Tom Brady was nothing special (15 of 23 for 196 yards and two TDs) but he has 30 TD passes on the season, the EIGHTH time he's done that. The Bus visited Atlanta for a game with the 4-9 Falcons, who are hoping to play the spoiler's role in another lost season. The Falcons' 20-17 loss last week at the Los Angeles Chargers clinched a third straight sub.-500 campaign. Barring a season-ending three-game winning streak, Atlanta will fail to match its 7-9 record of the last two years.

Atlanta fired head coach Dan Quinn after starting 0-5 but is 4-4 under interim coach Raheem Morris, with mostly competitive efforts. QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 3,660 yards (will top 4,000 for the 10th straight season!) with 19 TDs and 11 INTs. Todd Gurley (645 yards on just 3.6 YPF but 9 TDs) has NOT helped the running game, as Atlanta averages a woeful 08.3 YPG on 3.76 YPC. The defense allows 390.6 YPG (28th) but a more modest 24.8 PPG (16th).

Brady's completing of 64.8% for 3,496 yards with 30 TDs and 11 INTS and RB Ronald Jones (900 yards on 5.0 YPC with 6 TDs) has given Tampa Bay a nice offensive balance. However, he was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday. He was already considered questionable after undergoing surgery Tuesday to have pins placed in a fractured pinkie finger. Leonard Fournette (271 yards) will take over but note that 103 of his 271 rushing yards this season came back in a Week 2 win. Tampa Bay's season-long defensive rankings look solid, allowing 22.6 PPG (11th) on 330.3.9 YPG (7th) but in the team's 1-3 slide (before its win over Minnesota in Week 14), the "stop unit" had done little 'stopping,' allowing 28.8 PPG. The Vikings scored just 14 points but missed three FGs and an extra-point.

This marks the first of two matchups between the Bucs and Falcons in the season's final three weeks (Falcons play at Tampa in Week 17). I realize that the Bucs are focused on breaking a 13-year playoff drought, the second-longest drought in the NFL, but the Falcons are 6-2 ATS their last eight as a division home dog. Also, current Atlanta head coach Morris was Tampa Bay's head coach from 2009-11 before being fired. How much would he 'love' to play spoiler here? Home dog 'barks' loudly.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Year is on the LV Raiders at 8:20 ET.

The Raiders have allowed 200-plus rushing yards in their last two games but were able to split the two games, escaping with a 'miracle' win at the Jets in Week 13 but getting 'run over' 44-27 by the Colts last Sunday at home. The Raiders are now 7-6 and currently or on the outside looking in as the ninth seed in a crowded seven-team AFC playoff race. A loss here in Thursday night's home game with the 4-9 Los Angeles Chargers is as the saying goes, "NOT an option!"

The Chargers have found a franchise QB in  Justin Herbert (66.3% for 3,467 yards with 25 TDs and 10 INTs in his rookie season) but the team has found a myriad of ways to blow big leads. Despite Herbert and WR Allen's (99 catches / 8 TDs) excellent seasons, the offense is averaging a modest 22.8 PPG (22nd), while the defense allows 27.8 PPG (26th).

QB Derek Carr is "on pace" for the best season of his career (68.2% for 3,343 yards with 24 TDs and 7 INTs / QB rating of 102.1), supported by RB Jacobs (831 yards and 9 TDs) plus TE Waller (84 catches / 7 TDs). Las Vegas' offense is scoring a bit more than LA's at 26.9 PPG but its defense has struggled most of the season (30.1 PPG ranks 30th!).

These teams met back in LA on Nov 8 (Week 9) and in that one, it looked like the Chargers had won on a 4-yard TD pass on the final play of the game. However, the score was eventually overturned when a replay review showed the ball hit the ground as the receiver came down on the sideline chalk before establishing full control (Las Vegas won, 31-26). That Week 9 win gave the Raiders THREE straight victories over the Chargers. The Chargers are coming off a 20-17 victory over Atlanta on Sunday, hitting a 43-yard field goal as time expired for the winning points. Herbert produced the first game-winning, fourth-quarter drive of his career. 

However, considering that the Chargers haven't won back-to-back games all season, I want NO part of them here. As noted above, the Raiders are in a "must-win" situation, as their game next week with the Dolphins won't mean much if they lose here. Las Vegas was a one-point favorite in LA, meaning the Raiders should be a much bigger favorite than they are here at home. Here's some stats to 'chew on!' The Raiders are 8-2 ATS since the start of last season vs AFC West foes, while the Chargers are 1-7-1 ATS over the same time frame vs division opponents. That's a pretty sweet 'daily double' in favor of the Raiders!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC North Game of the Year (MNF Magic) is on the Bal Ravens at 8:15 ET.

The Cleveland Browns are looking to end a 17-season playoff drought after taking a big step in the right direction with last Sunday's 41-35 win at the Tennessee Titans, a team that played in last season's AFC title game. The 9-3 Browns welcome the hated-Baltimore Ravens to Cleveland on Monday night, a team that got a much-needed 34-17 win last Tuesday at home over the Cowboys. Baltimore opened the season 5-1 but had lost FOUR of its last five prior to the win over Dallas, dealing with inconsistent play and severe COVID-19 issues. Cleveland currently owns the No. 5 seed in the AFC, while Baltimore is 7-5 and out of the playoffs at the moment. However, a Baltimore win moves them into a tie with 8-5 Miami for the No. 7 seed (final playoff spot) plus would put them just ONE game back of the 9-4 Browns and Titans.

QB Lamar Jackson was activated off the reserve/COVID-19 list a day before the game with Dallas and looked fresh, despite passing for just 107 yards. He rushed for 94 yards as the Ravens dominated the trenches by racking up 294 on the ground. Jackson won't come close to last season's MVP numbers (3,127 passing yards with 36 TDs and 6 INTs / 1,206 rushing yards with 7 TDs) but he does have a solid 17-7 TD/INT ratio and leads Baltimore in rushing with 669 yards 5.8 YPC (4 TDs). Baltimore averaged an NFL-record 206.0 YPG (5.5 YPC) last season and again leads with 169.0 YPC on 5.2 YPC. Mark Ingram joined Jackson with more than 1,000 yards rushing last year but has just 260 yards in 2020. However, Edwards has 487 yards (4.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and rookie Dobbins 451 yards (5.4 YPC / 4 TDs). Baltimore's D allowed 17.6 PPG (2nd) on 300.6 YPG (4th) and this t0year's unit is not far off those numbers, allowing 19.3 PPG (4th) on 337.7 YPG (10th).

Cleveland QB Baker Mayfield passed for four TDs and a season-high 334 yards against the Titans last week, with all of his TDs coming in the first half. Mayfield also threw four of his five TDs in the second half of a win against Cincinnati back on Oct 25. No other QB has matched that in the NFL in 2020. However, note that Mayfield had thrown just two TD passes over his previous four games. His season high prior to last Sunday was just 297 yards. He's barely averaging over 200 YPG passing in 2020, although he's greatly improved his TD/INT ratio to 21-7, after last year's 22-21 mark (his QB rating is 97.9, up from 73.8 in 2019). Cleveland's two-RB attack is just behind Baltimore, ranking second in the NFL by averaging 157.8 YPG on the ground (4.9 YPC). Chubb has 799 yards (6.0 YPC / 7 TDs) and Hunt has 739 yards (4.3 YPC / 4 TDs). However, Cleveland's defense is allowing a worrisome 26.8 PPG (24th).

Cleveland's win over Tennessee was just its SECOND over a team with a current winning record (also beat the 9-4 Colts 32-23 back in Week 7). The Browns' other seven wins have come over Ciny (twice), Washington, Dallas, Houston, Jacksonville and Philadelphia. Just for the record, those seven own a combined record of 21-55-2 (.282). There is NO doubt that Cleveland's first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has established a different culture but I still don't trust them vs Baltimore, which CRUSHED them in Week 1 by the score of 38-6! That's not exactly news, as since John Harbaugh was named Baltimore's head coach prior to the 2008 season, the Ravens had won 20 of the 24 meetings from through 2019, including a 10-2 mark in Cleveland. Having made it 21 wins in the last 25 games with that Week 1 win, the Ravens now go for a NINTH season-sweep of the series. BTW, Lamar Jackson passed for 275 yards and three TDs and added 45 yards on the ground in that Week 1. Deja vu? 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Buf Bills at 8:20 ET.

The Pittsburgh Steelers visit Buffalo for a SNF game with the Bills and for the FIRST time in 2020, the Steelers are coming off a loss. Pittsburgh was upset 23-17 by Washington last Monday and will head to Buffalo 11-1 and hoping to keep pace with (or move ahead of) the 11-1 Chiefs by beating Buffalo. That will be no easy chore, as the Bills are 9-3 after also playing last Monday but coming away with a 34-24 win over San Francisco in a game played in Glendale, Az (home of the Cardinals.

"Big Ben" has bounced back from missing all of last season with a strong season (66.9% for 3,105 yards with 27 TDs and 7 INTs). He's got an excellent trio of WRs in Smith-Schuster (73 catches / 6 TDs), Johnson (65 / 5 TDs) and rookie Claypool (47 / 8 TDs) plus TE Ebron has 49 catches with four TDs. However, Pittsburgh RBs have fought injuries all season and Pittsburgh enters the game averaging only 92.6 YPG on the ground (29th), averaging 3.7 YPC. The defense has been the 'star' of the 2020 season, allowing 17.6 PPG (1st) on 300.5 YPG (3rd).

That defense will be tested by Buffalo QB Josh Allen who is having a breakout year!  I say that even though he began the current season as just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. However, his 2020 season has been "pretty darn good!" THREE times this season he has thrown for at least 375 yards and three TDs, with a passer rating of at least 130. That includes Monday night, when he threw for 375 yards and four TDs with a 139.1 QB rating. He is the AFC Offensive Player of the Week for the THIRD time. His Y-T-D numbers have him completing 69.9% for 3,403 yards with 26 TDs and eight INTs (QB rating of 105.9). Buffalo's running game is much better than Pittsburgh's (107.4 YPG on 4.0 YPC) but the addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE. He leads the team with 90 catches (four TDs)., while fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 66 through 12 games (on pace for 88).

After a long winning streak ends, many assume a "bounce-back" but just as often, that team suffers a let down. Pittsburgh's offense has averaged just 18.0 PPG its last two games an as noted above, I believe the Pittsburgh D will have its hands full with Josh Allen. Buffalo's trying to win the AFC East for the first time since 1995 and this contest is its LONE home game in a four-week span. NO "bounce-back" here for the Steelers!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Non Division Game of the Year is on the SF 49ers at 4:25 ET. 

Washington and San Francisco are both 5-7 but while Washington is tied for first in the NFC East, the NFC defending champion 49ers are mired in last-place in the NFC West. Washington began the season 1-5 but its shocking 23-17 win Monday against the previously unbeaten Steelers kept them in a tie with the Giants, who had pulled off quite an upset of their own last Sunday in winning 17-12 at Seattle as an 11-point underdog. Meanwhile, the 49ers made an uphill climb a good bit steeper with a 34-24 loss to the Buffalo Bills last Monday night in Glendale, Az. San Francisco will again 'host' Washington in Glendale on Sunday.

Washington's recent surge has coincided with QB Alex Smith's return from a near career-ending injury (actually, life-threatening). Smith's comeback is truly remarkable but he has just four TD passes and five INTs with a VERY poor QB rating of 83.8. In fact, Washington's defensive play has been the key, as Washington ranks eighth in points allowed (21.7 per) and 4th in total yards (310.9 YPG). That's because in the team's 3-0 SU and ATS run, Washington's D has allowed just 14.0 PPG on 281.7 YPG.

San Francisco has been riddled by injuries all season but ironically, the 49ers were healthier than they've been in a while for Monday's game with Buffalo. However, the San Francisco defense couldn't handle Buffalo QB Josh Allen who threw for 375 yards with four TDs (no INTs). Nick Mullens (still in for Jimmy G) threw for 316 yards and three TDs (but had two INTs). San Francisco's defense has not quite played up to the standards of last year's edition but the 49ers have allowed 24.0 PPG (13th) on 326.3 YPG (6th).

Kudos to Washington's recent play but the 49ers have WON five of their last six meetings with Washington and a closer look at Monday's loss to Buffalo reveals that San Francisco turned the ball over on downs at the Buffalo one-yard line plus Nick Mullens threw two interceptions, including one in the end zone. The 49ers are almost sure to miss the postseason but expect them to get the better of Washington in this one, "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Arz Cardinals at 1:00 ET.

Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11. However as Sunday Dec 13 dawns, the Rams are 9-4, Seattle 8-4 (and poised to join them at 9-4 with a home game against the Jets on tap) but the Cards have fallen off the pace at 6-6. Arizona has lost FOUR of five (lone exception was its 'miracle' Hail Mary win against the Bills). However, in this "season like no other," Arizona's 6-6 record would have them in first place in the 2020 NFC East, ONE game up on New York. The slumping Cards are at MetLife Field on Sunday to take on the surging Giants, who have won FOUR in a row, after a shocking 17-12 win in Seattle (as an 11-point underdog) last Sunday.

Arizona Kyler Murray has been contained better recently but the second-year player is having an impressive season. He's thrown for 2,997 yards with 22 TDs and 10 INTs plus he's run for 665 yards on 56.5 YPC with 10 rush TDs. Drake (768 yards on 4.3 YPC with 5 TDs) has become a reliable RB and his ankle is said to be fine. The problem for Arizona has been its defense. The Cards were allowing just 18.7 PPG over their first six games entering their Week 7 game with Seattle and although the Cards won (37-34), the defense has allowed 30.7 PPG its last six.

The Giants' 2020 season seemed "all but dead" after eight games, when they fell to 1-7 with a 25-23 MNF Week 8 loss to the Bucs. However, the Giants had been competitive in four straight games, a one-point win and three losses by a combined SIX points. The Giants enter this contest on a FOUR-game winning streak (3-1 ATS) and are now tied with Washington for first in the NFC East (Eagles are only 3-8-1) but do own the tiebreaker. QB Jones missed last week's win at Seattle, despite Colt McCoy going just 13 of 22 for 105 yards with one TD and one INT (67.4 QB rating). However, RB Gallman ran for 135 yards and the New York defense held Russell Wilson and the Seattle offense to just one TD. 

The victory marked New York's first win this season over a winning team but while the Cards are just 6-6, Arizona is still 'alive' in the NFC wild card chase. Jones is expected to be back but is that really good news. He has more INTs (9) than TD passes (8) on the season with one of the NFL's worst QB ratings (78.7) among regular starters. The Cards are the better team and are overdue for a breakout performance. The "numbers" tell us that the Cards are 8-3 ATS in non-division road games AND that the Giants are just 3-12 ATS their last 15 as a home dog since the start of the 2018 season (an 80% go-against).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers looked as good as any team in the NFC when they were sitting at 6-2 but a 1-3 run has seen them fall back to 7-5 and all of a sudden, the Bucs are fighting for a wild card spot. As for the Vikings, they were 10-6 last season and upset the 13-3 Saints in the playoffs but opened the 2020 season 1-5. However, in contrast to the Bucs, the Vikings come into this contest having won FIVE and six and at 6-6, are tied with the Cards just ONE game back of the Bucs plus Minnesota currently own the tiebreaker over Arizona. Both teams can bolster their NFC playoff chances with a win on Sunday.

Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins rarely gets respect but he's completing 67.8% for 3,073 yards with 26 TDs and 12 INTs for a 103.9 QB rating in 2020. That comes on the heels of him completing 70.1 and 69.1% in his first two seasons with the Vikings, passing for 4,298  and 3,603 yards with 56 YTDs and 16 INTs with QB ratings of 90.7 and 107.4. He misses WR Diggs (at Buffalo) but rookie Jefferson has 61 catches on 17.0 YPC with seven TDs, while veteran Thielen has 57 catches with 12 TDs. RB Dalvin Cook is the No. 2 rusher in the league (1,250 yards on 5.0 YPC) and the leader in rushing TDs with 13. He had 38 touches (32 rushes, 6 catches) in Minnesota's 27-24 overtime win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Of course, the defense has struggled for most of the season (27.4 PPG allowed ranks 26th) but let's not ignore those FIVE wins in six games (loss came by THREE points).

Tampa Bay limped into its bye last week with three losses in its last four games,  two by three points each to the Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs. A Week 13 bye was likely good news, as the team has been plagued by slow starts (Bucs have been outscored 52-7 in the first quarter of their last four games). Brady's passed for 3,3000 yards with 28 TDs and 11 INTs (on pace for about 4,400 yards with 37 TDs) and RB Ronald Jones is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards with 820 (5.1 YPC and five TDs). WRs Goodwin (49 catches and three TDs ) and Evans (48 catches and 11 TDs) are also getting contributions from TE Gronk (37 catches and four TDs). The season-long defensive rankings look solid, allowing 23.3 PPG (11th) on 329.9 YPG (7th) but in the team's 1-3 slide, the "stop unit" has done little 'stopping,' allowing 28.8 PPG.

Brady has surely made the Bus better but the Bucs continue to struggle as a home favorite (long-time 'ugly' numbers), going 1-3 ATS in that role in 2020. Minnesota's balanced offense should give Tampa Bay's defense fits and I will NOT ignore Minnesota's 5-1 SU run with the LONE loss coming by just THREE points. Take the big points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Ls Vegas Insider Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The New England Patriots have won FOUR of their last five, including a 45-0 'spanking' over the Chargers last Sunday. That game was played SoFi Stadium and New England head coach Bill Belichick and his team celebrated that triumph by staying in Los Angeles and working out at UCLA as opposed to making a pair of cross-country flights, as the Pats are right back in SoFi Stadium on Thursday night to face the Los Angeles Rams. Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11 but as Week 14 dawns, the Rams and Seahawks are tied at 8-4 (Rams currently own the tiebreaker), while the Cards have fallen off the pace at 6-6.

That Pats won 45-0 last Sunday in a game in which they gained just 291 of total offense. QB Cam Newton passed for only 69 yards but did have 48 rushing yards with two TDs. The Pats became the seventh team in league history to have a punt returned for a TD (70 yards) and a blocked field goal returned for a TD (44 yards) in the same game. New England did run for 165 yards and for the season have averaged 150.9 YPG on the ground (3rd in the NFL). However, Newton has been just AWFUL as a passer with just five TDs and nine INTs and a QB rating of 80.3 (among the worst of all QBs). The team's top-two pass catchers (Byrd and Meyers) have a combined 75 receptions and just one TD! New England's defense ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (14.1 PPG) and total defense (275.0 YPG) last season but even after last week's shutout, is allowing 21.3 PPG (NINE points per game more than LY) on 344.6 YPG (about 70 YPG more).

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for around 4,500 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 17-10 (QB rating of 93.7). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.2 YPG (ranks 9th) this season. Henderson, Brown and recently Akers have shared the ball carrying duties. Cam Akers ran 21 times for 72 yards and a TD in LA;s 38-28 win over the Cards but he has an ailing shoulder. Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown will fill in just fine if he's not 100 percent. While New England's top-two receivers have combined for just 75 catches, LA's Kupp has 74 catches and Woods 71. The TE duo of Higbee and Everett have a combined 66 catches with five TDs. As for defense, led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks fifth in scoring defense (20.3 PPG) and second in total defense (295.3 YPG).

An important matchup will be New England's running game (150.9 YPG ranks 3rd) against LA's rush D, which allows 93.1 YPG (3rd-best). The Pats were just 1-4 SU on the road before last Sunday's 45-0 blowout, with their LONE win coming against the still-winless Jets, game game the Pats trailed 27-17 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-27 on a 51-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock. A quick turnaround here vs a VERY good Rams team is NOT a good spot for the Pats. The Rams own impressive wins over Seattle and at Tampa Bay plus last week's 10-point win at Arizona over their last four games (loss came on a FG by the Niners on the final play of the game). Rams are the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Buf Bills at 8:15 ET.

The 8-3 Buffalo Bills and 5-6 San Francisco 49ers meet MNF at the home of the Arizona Cardinals, State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Az. The 49ers' home field is Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, Ca and due to new COVID-related restrictions in Santa Clara County San Francisco's "home" games in Week 13 (Buffalo) and Week 14 (Washington) have been relocated to the Cardinals' home stadium. The Bills sit atop the AFC East but Miami's win on Sunday means that Buffalo needs to win here to stay one game up on the Dolphins. As for San Francisco, the defending NFC champs are currently in last place in the NFC West, although a win here would move them to 6-6 and into a tie with Arizona and Minnesota, just ONE game behind 7-5 Tampa Bay, which currently holds the NFC's final wild card spot.

Buffalo enters the contest having won FOUR of five, with the lone loss having come at Arizona in Week 10 with what was an almost UNBELIEVABLE ending! The Bills got a much-needed bye in Week 11 Bills and returned in Week 12 with a 27-17 home win over Los Angeles Chargers behind a running and a passing TD from QB Josh Allen and a trick-play score on a 20-yard pass from Cole Beasley to fellow WR Gabriel Davis. Josh Allen is in his third season. He made great strides in his second season (2019) and began the current season as just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. He's come into his own in 2020, completing 68.8% for 3,028 yards with 22 TDs and eight INTs, while rushing for 311 yards with six TDs. His QB rating was 67.9 in his rookie season, 85.3 in 2019 and it's up to 102.3 in 2020. More importantly, he has the Bills at 8-3, putting them in position to capture their first division title since 1995. Allen doesn't get much support from his running game either, as the Bills are averaging just 10.4 YPG on the ground (21st). However, the addition of WR Diggs has been HUGE, as he leads the team with 80 catches (four TDs). Fellow WR Beasley, who has averaged 59 catches per season the last five, has 57 through 11 games (on pace for 83). Buffalo's defense allowed just 16.2 PPG last season (2nd to only New England) on 298.3 YPG (3rd) but this season is allowing 25.6 PPG (about 10 points higher), on 373.1 YPG (about 75 yards more per game).

The 49ers have struggled all season with significant injuries and Nick Mullens (67.5% for 1,642 yards with six TDs and seven INTs) will again get the start at QB with Jimmy G still sidelined. RB Mostert (772 yards on 5.6 YPC with eight TDs) has played just five games (346 yards), leaving McKinnon as the "best of the rest" with 315 yards on 3.9 YPC but does have five TDs and 27 catches. San Francisco upset the Rams 23-20 last Sunday and the good news was Mostert returned and WR Samuel returned to catch 11 passes for 133 yards but TE Kittle (37 catches leads the team despite him playing just six games) remains sidelined. The 49ers are averaging only 112.0 YPG on the ground (averaged 141.0 LY) and with Mullens and injuries to their receiving corps, are averaging only 23.7 PPG, down from 29.9 PPG last season.

The Bills have steadily improved under head coach Sean McDermott and want to make sure they DON'T repeat last season 2-3 finish, when they were also 8-3 through 11 games. Buffalo controls its own destiny in the AFC East and after this game, has only one "sure win" in its four remaining games (Denver). The other three are against Pittsburgh (11-0), New England (has won FIVE of six) and Miami. "Big game" for the Bills and a win would be "just desserts" coming in the same stadium they lost that heartbreaker to the Cardinals!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC Game of the Year is on the LA Chargers at 4:25 ET.

The 5-6 New England Patriots have won the AFC East 11 straight years (17 of the last 19) and last had a losing season back in 2000, going 5-11 in Bill Belichick's first season as the Pats' head coach. The Patriots visit LA on Sunday for a game with the 3-8 LA Chargers, having won THREE of their last four to get them to within one game of .500. The contest marks the first of a three-game road trip beginning with Chargers, then staying in LA for a Thursday night game with Rams in Week 14 and finishing up with a game at Miami in Week 15. "We are not where we need to be or want to be," said Belichick. "[A fast start] will be important this week. It's important every week."

The Chargers will take the field having lost FOUR of their last five to fall to 3-8 in what was expected to be a rebuilding year. In fact, the matchup will be the first between the Patriots and Chargers NOT to feature either Tom Brady or Philip Rivers at QB since 1997. Brady famously left New England after 20 years and Rivers left the Chargers after 16 year to sign with the Colts.

New England was counting on former MVP Cam Newton to lead the offense but has just FOUR touchdown passes in 266 attempts with nine INTs. He does have 387 rushing yards (9 TDs) for a running game that ranks fifth by averaging 149.6 YPG on the ground. However, the team's receiving corps is a pathetic group. Edleman is out with an injury (had just 21 catches after six games), while WRs Byrd and Meyers have 71 combined catches and just one TD reception. New England's defense ranked first in the NFL in points allowed (14.1 PPG) and total defense (275.0 YPG) but this season the Pats are allowing 23.2 PPG (that's NINE more per game) on 352.5 YPG.

The Chargers lost Rivers but have found a "franchise" QB in Justin Herbert. He's completing 66.9% for 3,015 yards with 23 TDs and seven TDs (110.9 QB rating). WR Allen is having another brilliant season with 85 catches and seven TDs plus TE Henry has 48 catches with three TDs. The running game is no better than average (117.2 YPG ranks 11th) but the return of Austin Ekeler last week is GREAT news. He ran for 557 yards (3 TDs) and caught 92 passes (8 TDs) last season and last Sunday at Buffalo ran for 44 yards and caught 11 passes for 85 yards. The Chargers are allowing 27.3 PPG (25th) but a more modest 342.9 YPG (12th).

The Chargers have blown double digit leads on a regular basis but I like them here vs the Pats. Yes, the Pats have won three of four but in five road games in 2020, they are 1-4 SU with their LONE win coming against 0-11 Jets, game game the Pats trailed 27-17 in the fourth quarter before winning 30-27 on a 51-yard FG with 0:00 on the clock.

Methinks the Pats have a VERY good chance of a losing season!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Phi Eagles at 4:25 ET.

My 9* Division Game of the Month (NFC West) is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Arizona, the LA Rams and Seattle were all 6-3 and tied atop the NFC West entering Week 11. Seattle is currently 8-3 but the Rams (7-4) and the Cards (6-5) have fallen off the pace, as they square off in a critical game at Glendale, Az on Sunday. The Rams fell out of a first-place tie with the Seahawks on Sunday after a last-second 23-20 home defeat to the San Francisco 49ers, while the Cardinals fell two games off the pace after they lost 20-17 at the New England Patriots, also on a last-second FG. Catching Seattle will be tough (Seahawks have a very easy schedule ahead) but the loser of this game will really hurt its wild card chances.

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for around 4,400 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 16-10 (QB rating of 92.7). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.6 YPG (ranks 9th) this season. Henderson (510 yards on 4.3 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (371 yards on 4.3 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. WRs Kupp (66 catches) and Woods (61) plus the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 56 catches and four TDs. Led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks fourth in scoring defense (19.5 PPG) and second in total defense (296.7 YPG).

Kyler Murray has thrown for 2,814 yards with 19 TDs and nine INTs. He's also run for 650 yards (6.7 YPC) with 10 TDs. RB Kenyan Drake is turning into a solid player, rushing for 719 yards (4.3 YPC) and seven TDs. Future HOF Fitzgerald may have 43 catches but he's averaging only 7.8 YPC without a TD. Hopkins is now the team's "go-to" WR with 77 catches, with Kirk catching 34 passes with six TDs.

However, here's the rub. The Cardinals have lost three of their last four games and are a successful Hail Mary pass from Kyler Murray to DeAndre Hopkins away from being on a four-game losing streak. Opponents have started to contain Murray's passing ability with blitzes and have stifled his running ability by focusing on him rather than the backs on handoff zone-reads. The Rams defense is surely capable of doing the same. Speaking of defense, when the Cards beat the 49ers back on Oct 25, they entered that game with their defense allowing just 18.7 PPG. However, including that 34-31 win in OT, the Arizona defense has allowed 29.2 PPG over its last five games.

Jared Goff lost a fumble in Sunday's defeat to the 49ers and threw TWO interceptions, one which was returned for a TD. After the game, head coach Sean McVay said his quarterback has to take better care of the football. As for Goff, he responded, "I'm a big boy," he said. "I can handle it." Goff shouldn't lack for confidence, as this series has clearly been one-sided over the last three years with the Rams going a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS. Why not a 'Lucky 7' in a row?

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Ind Colts at 1:00 ET.

The Indianapolis Colts won a huge game 34-17 in Tennessee against the Titans back in Week 10 and followed in Week 11 with a 34-31 OT win at home over the Packers (trailed 28-14 at the half) but 'ran out of gas' last Sunday at home, when the Titans (behind Henry's 178 rushing yards and three TDs) crushed the Colt 45-26. The 7-4 Colts now trail the 8-3 Titans in the AFC South as they visit Houston to take on the Texans. The Texans entered the season having won FOUR of the previous five AFC titles but not much has gone right for Houston this season. The Texans crushed the sad-sack Lions 41-25 on Thanksgiving but Houston is just 4-7 on the season and the playoffs are hardly a serious likelihood.

The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA and he's been solid. Rivers took over as the Chargers' starting QB in 2006 and over the next 14 seasons, started EVERY game, topping 3,000 passing yards in every one, including passing for over 4,000 yards 11 times (he's topped 4,000 in his last SEVEN seasons). He's on pace for another 4,000-yard season in 2020, as through 11 games he's got 2,978 yards. His completion rate of 67.3% is slightly above his career mark (64.8) and his QB rating of 93.9 is just below his career mark (95.0). Rookie RB Taylor (518 rushing yards / 3.8 YPC) has been a disappointment but fellow RB Hines leads the team with 44 catches. WRs Hilton (33 catches) and Pascal (32) are hardly special but the Indy defense, despite some recent issues, has been strong. The Colts are allowing 23.0 PPG (9th) and 311.8 YPG (5th).

Houston signed QB Deshaun Watson to a huge contract before the season and it's hard to blame the team's poor season on him. He's completing 68.9% for 3,2101 yards with 24 TDs and just five INTs. He enters this game without an interception in SIX straight games but the Texans are just 3-3 in those contests. No one really expected that Houston could play its way into the playoff picture but with WR Will Fuller V and cornerback Bradley Roby earning season-ending suspensions based on violating the league's policy on performance-enhancing drugs, the Texan's slim hopes have 'left town!' Fuller was having the most productive season of his five-year career with 53 receptions, 879 yards and eight touchdowns. Replacing him will be all but impossible on the heels of the Texans losing WR Randall Cobb (38 catches / 3 TDs) to injury. The team's prospects are not helped by a defense allowing 27.0 PPG (23rd) on 409.5 YPG (30th).

These teams will meet again in Week 15 but I'm taking the Colts here, as they've covered SIX of their last seven matchups with the Texans, who have very little left to play for in 2020.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM Game of the Month is on the LA Rams at 4:05 ET.

Entering Week 11, the Cards, Rams and Seahawks all were 6-3, tied atop the NFC West. Meanwhile, the defending NFC West champion 49ers (not to mention the defending NFC champs), were just 4-6 and 'enjoying' their bye week. Seattle won 28-21 at home over Arizona on Thursday, moving to 7-3 and dropping the Cards to 6-4. The Rams were in Tampa for MNF against the Bucs and needed a win to stay tied with Seattle and did just that with a 27-24 win. The 49ers travel to LA's SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Ca on Sunday, with the Rams hoping to avenge a 24-16 loss at San Francisco back in Week 6. 

The 49ers have struggled all season with significant injuries and Nick Mullens (67.3% for 1,390 yards with six TDs and six INTs) will again get the start at QB with Jimmy G still sidelined. Garoppolo threw three TD passes in that Week 6 win, all to receivers who are currently injured (tight end George Kittle), trying to return from an injury (wide receiver Deebo Samuel), or attempting to get reinstated from the COVID-19 list (wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk). Garoppolo is currently on injured reserve himself, with a high-ankle sprain. RB Mostert (772 yards on 5.6 YPC with eight TDs) has played just four games (303 yards), leaving McKinnon as the "best of the rest" with 294 yards on 3.8 YPC but does have five TDs, The 49ers are averaging only 11.,0 YPG on the ground (averaged 141.0 LY) and I already noted the receiving woes. After averaging 29.9 PPG last season, the 49ers are averaging just 23.8 PPG (20th) in 2020. 

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing for 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for just over 4,500 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 16-8 (QB rating of 95.5). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 124.5 YPG (4.2 YPC) this season. Henderson (491 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (367 yards on 4.4 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. Kupp had 11 catches vs Tampa (64 on the season) and Woods had 12 catches (54 on the season) plus the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 53 catches and four TDs. Led by two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, Los Angeles ranks second in scoring defense (19.2 PPG) and  1st in total defense (291.9 YPG). Goff came up HUGE in outplaying Brady on MNF (376 passing yards with three TDs) and enters this contest with THREE consecutive 300-yard games. As for the Rams D, it  recorded six sacks and two interceptions against Seattle's Russell Wilson, before limiting Tampa Bay's Tom Brady to just 216 passing yards with two interceptions. Hard to see them NOT containing Nick Mullens.

The Rams should be primed to break a three-game losing streak to the 49ers and why shouldn't they win here at SoFi Stadium, where they are 4-0 (3-1 ATS), while holding opponents to just 13.0 PPG. 

Good luck...Larry    

My 10* Signature LEGEND Play is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

The Carolina Panthers ended a five-game slide with a 20-0 win last Sunday against the Lions (win doesn't mean much after Detroit's Thanksgiving effort), while the Minnesota Vikings saw their three-game winning streak end with a last-minute 31-28 loss to the Cowboys (looks even worse off Dallas' Thanksgiving effort). The 4-7 Panthers travel to the 4-6 Vikings for a Sunday game between two teams not expecting to be playing postseason football in 2020. However, there is a good storyline to this contest, as Carolina QB Teddy Bridgewater has been cleared to play (he was a full participant in practice on Wednesday). This will mark his first start against his former team since he suffered a horrific left knee injury during the Vikings' 2016 training camp. The bad news for Carolina is that although RB Christian McCaffrey returned to practice Wednesday after missing the past two games with a shoulder injury, head coach Matt Rhule doesn't expect his star RB to play against the Vikings.

Bridgewater missed Carolina's 20-0 win last Sunday but despite the team's poor season, he's completed 72.1% for 2,552 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. However, with McCaffrey playing only three games, Carolina's running game has NOT given Bridgewater much help, averaging only 106.4 YPG (21st). RB Davis has a modest 449 rushing yards but does help the passing game, as he's tied for second on the team with 49 catches, matching WR Samuel. Samuel averages just 9.1 YPC but WRs Anderson (team-leading 71 catches) and Moore (46 catches / 18.8 YPC / 4 TDs) have had good seasons. Carolina's shutout last week was its first in FIVE years but the D has been middle-of-the-pack all season,  allowing 24.7 PPG to rank 15th (more later).

Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikings to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. 2020 is destined to follow the same script. Minnesota had won three straight games plus covered SIX of seven before its loss to the sad-sack Cowboys. RB Dalvin Cook ran for 115 yards, the FIFTH time he had done so in his last seven contests. Cook now leads the NFL with 1,069 rushing yards on 5.3 YPC with 13 TDs. In his last seven games, he's averaged 136.6 YPG on the ground while scoring 10 of his 13 rushing TDs on the season. QB Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. He has NOT been that good this year but is still completing 66.9% for 2,461 yards with 20 TDs and 11 INTs (102.7 QB rating). It was NOT good news that WR Thielen (49 catches  with 11 TDs) was placed on the COVID-19 list on Monday but he has yet to be ruled out for Sunday. He's been a mentor to rookie WR Jefferson, who has 45 catches with a team high 18.8 YPC average and four TDs. Both TEs contribute, as Rudolph and Smith (combined 36 catches) but Smith may miss a second straight game. The problem all season has been a Minnesota defense which is allowing 27.8 PPG.

Zimmer's a defensive coach and after he saw his young defense help lead the team to three straight wins by allowing 18.3 PPG, the 'stop unit' reverted to its previous form against the Cowboys. "I thought we were getting better defensively after the last three weeks but that didn't show against Dallas," coach Mike Zimmer said. However, speaking of defenses, I don't put too much credence in the Panthers' shutout of the Lions. Why? It's pretty simple. It was an amazing turnaround for a Panthers defense which had allowed 32.7 PPG over the team's previous four contests in which Carolina had forced just TWO punts! Thielen or no Thielen, the Vikings have a balanced offense that has scored 28 or more points in SIX of its 10 games in 2020. The Vikings enter this contest on a 23-11-3 ATS  run as a home favorite and Bridgewater's "return to Minnesota" ends badly for him and the Panthers.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Featured" Sunday Total of the week is on Mia/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET.

The Miami Dolphins had their five-game winning streak snapped with a 20-13 loss in Denver last Sunday but look (expect?) to get back on track Sunday at MetLife Stadium when they face the 0-10 NY Jets, The Jets have lost 10 straight games in the same season for the first time in club history and they are two losses from matching their longest losing streak ever, a 12-game skid that bridged the 1995-96 seasons. The two AFC East rivals met in Miami back on Oct 24, with the Dolphins winning 24-0.

Tua Tagovailoa was sacked SIX times last Sunday before being benched in favor of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who started against the Jets the last time the teams met. Tagovailoa came in late during that game and has been Miami's starter since. However, Tagovailoa injured the thumb on his throwing hand in practice during the week. He was originally downgraded from questionable to doubtful for Sunday's game but on Saturday afternoon, the Jets said that veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick would start. He was completing 69.8% when he was benched with 10 TDs and eight INTs. Miami owns an awful running game, averaging 94.4 YPG (30th), with Myles Gaskins (despite playing in only seven games) leading the team with 387 yards on 3.9 YPC with two TDs. He also has 30 catches, second-most on the team. WR Parker leads with 44 catches and four TDs, while TE Gesicki has 28 receptions (14.8 YPC) with two TDs. Interestingly, while the offense is averaging just 308.6 YPG (29th), the Dolphins are averaging 26.5 PPG (14th). The defense allows 380.6 YPG (21st) but allows a surprisingly low 26.4 PPG (4th).

The Jets also have a change at QB, as Sam Darnold is healthy enough to start, after missing two games with an injured right shoulder. The Jets run the ball no better than the Dolphins, averaging 98.6 YPG on the ground (25th). Leading the way is Frank Gore (447 yards), who is closing in being 100-years-old. However, the real good news is that this game will mark the first time this season Darnold would take the field with all three of his starting WRs, Jamison Crowder, Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims. The Jets enter the game last in scoring (14.9 PPG) and in total offense (268.6 YPG). Then there is a defense that allows 30.2 PPG (31st) on 400.0 YPG (28th).

Fitzpatrick was NONE too happy about being benched and the Jets defense may give him every opportunity to deliver a "big game." It doesn't hurt that the Jets are one of the MANY teams he once played for. As for the Jets, Darnold should love the fact that his WR starters are back and let's NOT ignore that while the Jets have continued to lose, they have scored 27 and 28 points in their last two games. This one is Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC 'Least' Battle 4 First is on the Dal Cowboys at 4:30 ET.

Dallas plays its annual Thanksgiving Day game in 2020 against Washington and while both teams come in a poor 3-7 on the season, the winner will own first place in the cynically-named "NFC Least!" That is until Monday, when the 3-6-1 Eagles will have a chance to regain the division lead if they can upset the Seahawks. Both Teams will take the field with their Opening Day starter at QB on the sidelines.

Washington opened the season with Dwayne Haskins at QB, before he lost his job to Kyle Allen. Then Allen was replaced in a Week 9 game against the Giants by Alex Smith, who was the team's former starter before a brutal leg injury almost ended his career and even his life! Smith is without a doubt one of NFL 2020's great "feel-good" stories. Smith passed for 325 yards in relief of Allen in that 23-20 loss vs the Giants but threw THREE interceptions. He then passed for 390 yards in a 30-27 loss to the Lions the following week but just FOUR days after the second anniversary of an injury that threatened his life (this past Sunday), Smith led Washington to a 20-9 win over Cincinnati. Smith threw for just 166 yards vs the Bengals (zero TDs and zero INTs) but the "W" had to feel VERY good! Washington is averaging just 99.1 YPG on the ground but rookie Antonio Gibson ran for 94 yards last week (note: he had season-high 128 in the team's 25-3 over Dallas in Week 7) and now has 530 yards on the season with eight TDs (he also has 27 catches). WR Terry McLaurin is on pace for close to 100 catches (62 catches / 14.0 YPC / 3 TDs), TE Thomas has 30 catches (3 TDs) and RB McKissic has added 44 receptions. The Washington defense is allowing 315.8 YPG (6th-best) and a modest 22.7 PPG.

Dallas has a 'feel good" story of its own last Sunday, as Andy Dalton had three TD passes, including the game-winner with 1:37 left in the game, as the Cowboys snapped a four-game losing streak with a 31-28 win at Minnesota (Vikings entered on a three-game winning streak plus a 6-1 ATS run). It was Dalton's first game since Oct 25, when Washington linebacker Jon Bostic knocked him out of a 25-3 loss in the third quarter with a late hit to the helmet as Dalton slid to end a scramble. A battle with COVID-19 kept Dalton on the sidelines as Dallas continued to cycle through third and fourth-string quarterbacks with little success. The Cowboys offense that shriveled up and died when Dak Prescott ended his season with a frightening leg injury in Week 5. Prescott had averaged over 400 YPG passing through four weeks, with nine TDs and three INTs. However, Dallas finally displayed a balanced offense, as Elliott (675 yards on 3.9 YPC with 5 TDs) ran for more than 100 yards (103) for the first time all season with Dallas running for 180 yards, while passing for 196. More importantly, the team's four TDs touchdowns were TWICE as many as the Cowboys had produced during their four-game skid. Dalton has plenty of targets, with WRs like Cooper (65 catches / 2 TDs), Rookie Lamb (48 catches / 4 TDs) and Gallup (31 catches / team-high 16.0 YPC) plus TE Schultz (39 catches / 3 TDs).

Dallas MUST play better defense, as the Cowboys are allowing an NFL-high 31.8 PPG but Washington enters on a six-game road losing streak (0-4 in 2020) and is just 2-10 on the road since the start of 2019. Let me add that Washington has won just ONE of its last eight Thanksgiving games with Dallas and for all its recent woes, the Cowboys are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 NFC East contests. Dallas gets some revenge from that Week 7 loss in Washington and moves to 4-7, before serving as Seattle 'cheerleaders' Monday night in Philly.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the TB Bucs at 8:15 ET.

The 6-3 Los Angeles Rams need a win to keep pace with the 7-3 Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West and the 7-3 Tampa Bay Bucs need a win to stay just a half-game back of the 8-2 Saints in the NFC South. Tampa Bay has a lot of prime-time exposure with the addition of TB-12 but tonight's game "main attraction" could be two of the NFL's best defenses. Led by  two-time NFL Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald (nine sacks), Los Angeles ranks second in both scoring defense (18.7 PPG) and total defense (296.4 YPG), while also ranking third in passing defense (199.7 YPG) and fifth in rushing defense (96.8 YPG). Tampa Bay's "stop unit" ain't bad themselves, ranking first in rushing defense (76.6 YPG) and third in total defense (300.3 YPG). Tampa Bay is eighth in scoring defense (22.6 PPG) and ninth in passing defense (223.7 YPG).

Jared Goff led the Rams to a Super Bowl berth in the 2018 season by throwing fir 4,688 yards with 32 TDs and just 12 INTs (191.1 QB rating) and while he threw for 4,638 last season, his TD/INT ratio was just 22-16 and his QB rating fell to 86.5 (Rams went from 13-3 to 9-7). He's on pace to throw for just over 4,300 yards in 2020 and his TD/INT ratio is 13-6 (QB rating of 94.9). The Rams said good-bye to RB Gurley and the running game has gone from averaging only 93.7 YPG (3.7 YPC) in 2019 to 134.2 YPG (4.3 YPC) this season. Henderson (486 yards on 4.8 YPC with four TDs) and Brown (347 yards on 4.3 YPC and five TDs) have shared the workload. Kupp (53 catches / 2 TDs) and Woods (42 catches / 4 TDs) are quality WRs and the TE duo of Higbee and Everett have combined for 45 catches and four TDs.

Brady has completed 66.0% for 2,739 yards with 23 TDs and seven INTs and RB Jones has 730 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC on 5.1 YPC with five TDs, after running for a career-high 192 yards last Sunday. Brady has plenty of targets, in WRs Evans (40 catches / 8 TDs) and Miller (27 catches / 2 TDs) and TE Gronk (29 catches / 4 TDs), who has 17 catches and all four TDs in his last five games. Then there has been the addition of the controversial Antonio Brown (10 catches in two games), who when "not in trouble," caught 100-plus passes for six consecutive seasons for Pittsburgh (2013-18) with 67 TD receptions!

Both teams are hoping to win their respective divisions but the winner of this game also takes a step toward a wild card spot. The Bucs entered the week trailing the Saints by a half game in the NFC South but realistically it’s a game and a half because New Orleans owns the first head-to-head tiebreaker (2-0 this season vs Tampa). Speaking of those two games with the Saints, Brady has thrown FIVE of his seven INTs on the season in them, while his TD/INT ratio in Tampa Bay's other eight games is 21-2, with the Bucs going 7-1. Yes, the Bucs were embarrassed by the Saints at home but they are 3-0 in their other three home games, averaging 35.7 PPG. The Bucs already have matched their win total from 2019, but that was never the goal. You don’t sign a 43-year-old Brady, trade for tight end Rob Gronkowski and add receiver Antonio Brown, and running backs Leonard Fournette and LeSean McCoy as free agents unless it’s Super Bowl or bust. Lay the points with Tampa Bay.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* NFL Rivalry Rout is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

SNF features a classic AFL rivalry, the Chiefs and Raiders. The defending champs are 8-1 and are coming off a bye to visit Las Vegas, where they will take on the 6-3 Raiders. The Raiders shocked the Chiefs 40-32 at Kansas City back in Week 5, as 11-point underdogs. The Raiders got crushed 45-20 at home by the Bucs in their next game but enter this contest on a 3-0 SU & ATS run. Mahomes is completing 66.9% for 2,687 yards with 25 TDs and just one INT (115.9 QB rating) but Carr is not far behind, completing 69.3% for 2,56 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs (107.4 QB rating).

However, hanging over the game is COVID-19 issues. This paragraph is copied directly from a game preview to give the info its proper respect. The Raiders had their Oct 25 prime time game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers shifted to the afternoon when offensive tackle Trent Brown came down with the virus and the entire starting offensive line was forced into quarantine until the morning of the game because of their high-risk contact with Brown. Tampa Bay cruised to a 45-20 victory. Following a positive test by starting defensive end Clelin Ferrell on Tuesday, seven more Raiders defensive players were put on the reserve/COVID-19 list on Wednesday - safety Johnathan Abram, defensive tackles Maliek Collins, Johnathan Hankins and Kendal Vickers, defensive back Isaiah Johnson, defensive end Arden Key and practice squad defensive end David Irving. They join safety Lamarcus Joyner, previously identified as a close contact of Ferrell, Brown and linebacker Cory Littleton, who was placed on the list last week. Ferrell is likely out for Sunday night's game as is Brown, who isn't expected back until next week. But the other players will be eligible to play Sunday, as long as they continue to test negative. Kansas City has its own COVID-19 issues with both starting offensive tackles, Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz, as well as backup Martinas Rankin going on the COVID list earlier this week after being in close contact with someone who tested positive. All could play Sunday, barring a positive test result.

As noted above, Mahomes is having a superb season. Rookie RB Edwards-Helaire 'exploded' on the scene in Week 1 with 138 yards but he's had just one 100-yard game since. He has 586 yards on 4.7 YPC with two TDs on the season. The KC offense revolves around Mahomes and his spectacular group of receivers. Kelce is the best TE in the game and leads with 58 catches and six TDs. WR Hill is a game-changer/game-breaker with 44 catches and nine TDs (one rushing TD, as well). The WR trio of Hardeman, Watkins and Robinson have combined for 67 catches and five TDs. On the defensive side of the ball, KC's improvement helped them win the Super Bowl last season and make them one of the favorites to possibly win again in 2020. KC allowed 405.5 YPG (second-worst in the NFL) in 2018, while allowing 26.3 PPG. However, KC allowed just 19.3 PPG in 2019 and here in 2020, is allowing 20.3 PPG.

Carr's having a career-season and second-year RB Josh Jacobs has proven his rookie season was no fluke (1,150 yards on 4.8 YPC with 7 TDs in 13 games). Jacobs may be averaging a modest 3.8 YPC but he's run for 700 yards with eight TDs plus has 23 catches (just 20 all of last season). TE Waller may not be Kelce (just yet, anyway) but he has 53 catches and four TDs. WR Renfrow has 29 catches but the team's "big play" receiver is Agholor who has made his 18 catches count, averaging 19.7 YPC with five TDs.

Here's the rub. Gruden's defense has allowed 26.8 PPG on the season. Ferrell is likely out for Sunday night's game as is Brown, who isn't expected back until next week. The other players will be eligible to play Sunday, as long as they continue to test negative. However, those players will be limited to virtual practices and meetings until then and won't be allowed on the practice field together. Not exactly the best way to get your defense prepared for reigning Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes and Co. KC has a HUGE "revenge motive" from the Raiders' 40-32 in their first meeting on back on Oct 11, the team's LONE loss in its last 18 games (including the postseason) in 18 games (17-1) plus then there is ONE more important stat. KC head coach Andy Reid is 18-3 SU in regular-season games after a bye during his 22 seasons as a head coach! Also, despite the Raiders' win at KC earlier this season, they've won just TWO of their last 11 against the Chiefs since 2015. One closing thought. Yes, KC has a 'number' to cover but the well-rested Chiefs check in on a 23-8 ATS run as an away favorite. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner of the Month is on the Green Bay Packers at 4:25 ET.

The Packers opened the season 4-0 SU & ATS and while it hasn't been a smooth ride, Green Bay 7-2 is tied with New Orleans for the NFC' best record (note: San Francisco, Green Bay and New Orleans were all 13-3 last season, with the 49ers and Packers getting the No. 1 and No, 2 seeds, respectively due to tiebreakers). QB Aaron Rodgers has helped steer the Packers, despite various injuries to some of the team's most reliable playmakers. The Colts made a big 'splash' in the offseason by singing Philip Rivers as a free agent but the key to Indy's 6-3 record (tied with Tennessee atop the AFC South) has been a defense that ranks first in total yards (290.4 per game) and 4th in scoring (19.7 PPG). These two first place clubs square off Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Rodgers is again at "the top of his game," completing 67.8% for 2,578 yards for 2,578 yards with 26 TDs and just three INTs (116.4 QB rating). RB Jones has dealt with injuries (he's missed two games) but he has 493 rushing yards on 4.8 YPC with five TDs, while catching 28 passes with two more TDs. WR Davante Adams missed practice Wednesday after tweaking a previously balky ankle in a Week 10 home win against Jacksonville, but indications are he will play against the Colts. In his seven games he's caught 61 balls with nine TDs on the season, after 38 catches with seven TDs in his last four games. Fellow WR Valdez-Scantling has a modest 22 catches (he hasn't missed a game) but he's averaging 21.0 YPC with four TDs. TE Tonyan has 27 catches and five TDs. Green Bay is averaging 30.8 PPG, with only Seattle and KC (each at 31.8 PPG) scoring more. The defense has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 24.9 PPG.

Rivers has provided a steady hand at QB but while he's completing 68.7% for 2,395 yards but his TD/INT ratio is a modest 11-7. Big things were expected from Wisconsin rookie Jonathan Taylor but he's got a modest 428 rushing yards on 3.8 YPC with four TDs. The Indy running game is averaging only 105.8 YPG on 3.8 YPC. Fellow RB Hines has just 177 yards on the ground but leads the team with 33 catches and with four TD receptions. WR Hilton has been banged up on-and-off this season and  checks in with just 26 catches and not a single TD catch. WR Pascal has 28 catches (2 TDs) and TE Alie-Cox adds 20 catches and two TDs. As noted above, the Colts are where they are because of their D (see above for a reminder).

The Colts have beaten Green Bay's fellow NFC North 'partners' (Chicago, Detroit and Minnesota) but Green Bay is a 'horse of a different color!' The Packers are off an uninspiring 24-20 over hapless Jacksonville but that so-so effort should have them VERY focused on this game. Green Bay can 'sniff' the NFC's No. 1 seed, as after the Colts, Green Bay faces just ONE team with a current winning record (Titans in Week 16) over its final six games. As for the Colts, they come off a HUGE win at Tennessee in Week 10, moving them into a tie atop the AFC South with the Titans. Indy's defense gets a real test against Rodgers and Co plus just could be peeking ahead to next week's home game with the Titans. I view this as the perfect situation for a Green By win. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC North Game of the Year is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites.

Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for Mariota midway through the 2019 season and was a steady hand during the Titans' strong regular season finish and their playoff run. That playoff run saw them win at New England and Baltimore before losing at KC in the AFC championship game. However, most thought of Tannehill as little more than a "game-manager," with the Tennessee offense relying on RB Derrick Henry. That's changed in 2020, as Tannehill has completed 64.8% for 2,128 yards with 20 TDs and three INTs (106.9 QB rating). Henry is having another strong season, running for 946 yards on 4.7 YPC with eight TDs. That's all well and fine but after opening 5-0, the Titans have lost THREE of their last four. While Tannehill's numbers on the season remain very good, he's barely completed 50% of his passes (25 of 48) for an average of just 152.5 YPG in the team's last two games. He had completed 67.4% of his passes in his first seven games, averaging 244.0 YPG through the air. The Tennessee defense is also allowing almost SIX points per game more than last season, 26.1-to-20.7.

The Ravens opened the season 5-1, with their lone loss coming to the defending champion Chiefs. However, Baltimore has has lost TWO of its last three, falling at home to Pittsburgh 28-24 in Week 8 and 23-17 at New England in Week 10. Jackson is playing well, completing 64.0% for 1,762 yards with 14 TDs and five INTs, while again leading the team in rushing with 524 yards on 5.8 YPC with three TDs. The running game is averaging a healthy 164.0 YPG but that's down from the team's NFL record 206.0 YPG last season, RB Ingram joined Jackson as a 1,000-yard rusher in 2019 but he has just 230 yards so far this season, as Edwards (370 yards) and Dobbins (310 yards) join him as a rotating three-back attack. WR Brown has 32 catches, while the trio of Snead, Boykin and Duvernoy have combined for 53 catches. TE Andrews has a team-highs in catches (33) and TD receptions (six). The Baltimore D is allowing  18.3 PPG (17.6 LY) on 323.0 YPG (330.6 LY).

The Ravens HAVE to win this one and the extra bonus of "playoff revenge" makes me like the play even more. Let me review that playoff game from last year. Baltimore outgained Tennessee 530-to-300 in yards and 29-15 in FDs. Jackson passed for 365 yards and ran for 143 but coughed up THREE turnovers and was 0 of 4 on fourth down attempts. If the Ravens can't win here, their season is effectively over.

Good luck...Larry

My "Featured" 10* Sunday Total is on Cin/Was Over at 1:00 ET.

The top two picks in the 2020 NFL Draft will face off for the first time Sunday when QB Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Washington Football Team and defensive end Chase Young in Landover, Md. Burrow has earned praise from across the league for his poise, accuracy and the speed with which he's adapted to the pro game, while Young has NOT had a big impact with 21 tackles and 3.5 sacks in eight games, all starts. Cincinnati checks in at 2-6-1 and has yet to win on the road (0-4-1) in 2020, while Washington is 2-7 but actually remains in contention in the NFC Least,' where the 3-5-1 Eagles are in first place and the 3-7 Giants are second place. 

The Cincy OL has hampered both Burrow (he's been sacked 32 times) and the team's running game (105.4 YPG on 4.0 YPC) but Burrow has completed 65.4% for 2,485 yards with 12 TDs and five INTs. Mixon is the team's best RB (428 yards on just 3.6 YPC) but he remains out (last played Oct 18) and Beranrd's value is as a receiver (28 catches with two TDs). WRs Boyd (60 catches / 3 TDs) and Higgins (40 catches / 4 TDs) have both been solid but A.J. Green continues to underperform (31 catches on the season), with just TWO receptions for 19 yards in the last two games. Burrow will look (NEED) to bounce back, after Cincy's 'ugly' 36-10 road loss at undefeated Pittsburgh last week. He passed for just 213 yards and the Bengals were 0-for-13 on third down.!

In stark contrast, while Washington lost 30-27 at Detroit in Week 10, QB Alex Smiths continued one of the season's better 'feel good' stories. It's taken nearly two years for him to return to the starting lineup but took him only two games to inject himself into the conversation over whether he can be Washington's future quarterback. He's thrown for a combined 715 yards in Washington's last two losses, nearly leading comebacks from large deficits each time. Smith has returned to a place few thought he would reach again. In Sunday's 30-27 loss to the Detroit Lions, Smith's first start since breaking the fibula and tibia in his right leg on Nov 18, 2018, he completed a career-high 38 passes for 390 yards. Washington tied the game after trailing by 21 points in the second half only to lose on a last-second field goal. Washington's running game (91.9 YPG on 3.8 YPC) is even worse than Cincy's, although Gibson did have two rushing TDs against Detroit, giving him seven on the season (436 yards on 4.2 YPC). Fellow RB McKissic is used more as a receiver, as he has 41 catches. WR McLaurin (57 catches / 13.8 YPC / 3 TDs) is Washington's best receiver, although TE Thomas (28 / 3 TDs) has been effective at times.

The Bengals are just 2-6-1 but they own a 6-3 ATS record. They have been non-competitive at Baltimore and Pittsburgh but 2-4-1 (6-1 ATS) in their other seven games. NONE of those four losses have come by more than FIVE points and there was that tie at Philly. Washington still has some motivation, as a win here and at Dallas on Thanksgiving, would move them to 4-7. The Eagles are at 6-3 Cleveland this week and they play Seattle (7-3), Green Bay (7-2) and New Orleans (7-3) their next three! Neither Burrow nor Smith can rely on any help from their respective running games, so expect both to have big games. Expect Burrow to bounce-back from his POOR effort at Pittsburgh and Smith faces a Cincy D which allows 30.4 PPG on the road. Go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Thursday Game of the Month is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET.

The NFC West has a three-way tie at the top between the Cards, Rams and Seahawks (all are 6-3).The Cards and Seahawks square off in Seattle and barring a tie, one will move to 7-3. The Rams play Monday night in Tampa against the Bucs, making their path to 7-3 a real test. The Cardinals overcame a 10-point fourth quarter deficit back in Week 7 in a SNF matchup at home, to edge the Seahawks 37-34 on a Zane Gonzalez 48-yard FG with 15 seconds remaining in OT (note: Gonzalez had previously kicked a 44-yarder as time expired in regulation). The loss was Seattle's first of the season (after opening 5-0) and the Seahawks have gone to drop two of their next three games, as well. Arizona's win over Seattle was the team's THIRD in a row and after a bye in Week 8, the Cards have lost a close one (34-31 to Miami) and won a close one (32-30 over Buffalo), all at home. 

I'm sure ALL are aware that Arizona's win over Buffalo belongs in the 'miracle' category and the Cards head to Seattle off THREE straight games (2-1) decided by three, three and two points. QB Kyler Murray is having a superb 'sophomore' season, completing 68.2% for 2,375 yards with 17 TDs and eight INTs. He's also the Cards' leading rusher with 604 yards on 6.9 YPC with 10 rushing TDs! Kenyon Drake (612 yards on 4.5 YPC with four TDs) has developed into a dependable RB and the Cards have now edged ahead of the Ravens to own the NFL's top rushing offense at 168.9 YPG (5.3 YPC).  Fitzgerald is heading to the HOF but while he has 35 catches, he's averaging only 7.8 YPC and has yet to snare a TD pass. Hopkins caught the game-winner against the Bills and leads the team with 67 receptions (four TDs). Fellow WR Kirk has a modest 27 catches but leads the team with six TD grabs. Arizona's defense allowed just 18.7 PPG through its first six games but enters this contest having allowed 30-plus points in each of its last three (32.7 per).

Defense has been a season-long problem for Seattle, as it is allowing a league-high 448.3 YPG and almost 30 PPG (29.6). However, led by Russell Wilson's MVP-caliber play (19 TD passes and just three INTs), Seattle got off to a 5-0 start. However, in Seattle's recent 1-3 slide, Wilson had four TDs and zero INTs in Seattle lone win in that span, while passing for only five TDs against seven INTs in the three losses. He didn't throw a TD pass in last week's loss at the Rams (had two INTs), just the second time since the start of the 2019 season in which he went without a TD pass in a game (the other time was also against the Rams, in a 28-12 road loss last season). However, he is completing 69.8% for 2,789 yards with 28 TDs and 10 INTs on the season (110.5 QB rating). Wilson is also the team's leading rusher (325 yards on 7.2 YPC) but the Seahawks have been without their top two RBs, Chris Carson (mid-foot sprain) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring), for the past three games. Carson remains out but Hyde has returned to practice on a limited basis. Wilson has a 'dynamic duo' in WRs Lockett (58 catches with six TDs) and Metcalf (45 catches on 18.1 YPC with eight TDs).

The Cards are on the road for the first time since Week 6 (three home games and a bye week), while this marks Seattle's ONLY home game in a four-week span. What's more, after leading the division since Week 1, Seattle would fall from atop it for the first time this season with a loss. I realize Seattle has RB issues (it has all season) but I'm not sure why Seattle is favored here at home, by pretty much the same as it was in Arizona! A win keeps Seattle atop the NFC West (all by itself if Tampa Bay can beat the Rams) plus Seattle's next four opponents (Philadelphia, the NYG, the NYJ and Washington) have  a combined 8-28-1 record in 2020. CenturyLink Stadium doesn't offer the same kind of home field edge it did in 'normal' times but Seattle is still a perfect 4-0 at home in 2020, averaging 34.3 PPG. That's almost the exact point total the Cards' defense has allowed (see above) in its last three games.  Don't be fooled by Arizona's 3-1 road record in 2020, as its opponents have been San Francisco, Carolina, the NY Jets and Dallas, teams with a combined record of 9-29! Lay the 'cheap' price!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* MNF Magic play (NFC North Game of the Month) is on the Chi Bears at 8:15 ET.

Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikings to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. A non-postseason year in 2020 will NOT be acceptable but the Vikings will be hard-pressed to avoid that from happening. The Chicago Bears hired John Fox as head coach in 2015 and he had three straight losing seasons, going 3-13 in 2016 and 5-11 in 2017. That was enough and the Bears hired Mike Nagy on January 7, 2018, Nagy was one of six candidates for the Bears' job and sure seemed like the 'right choice,' as Chicago went 12-4 in his first season. The Bears fell to 8-8 last season but surprised by opening 3-0 and 5-1. However, they enter this contest off THREE straight losses.

The Vikings were manhandled by the Packers in Week 1 and after a 40-23 loss Week 6 to Atlanta, stood 1-5. However, the team's Week 7 bye seems to have rejuvenated the team, as Minnesota won 28-22 at Green Bay in Week 8 and then beat Detroit 34-20 at home in Week 9. QB Kirk Cousins connected on 13 of his 20 pass attempts for 220 yards and 3 TDs in the win over the Lions, while RB Dalvin Cook ran for 206 yards on just 22 carries with two TDs. Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. He's has NOT been that good this year, completing 65.6 percent for 1.855 yards. He has 15 TDs but 10 INTs, FOUR more than he had all last season. Dalvin Cook (858 yards on 6.0 YPC with 12 TDs), when healthy, is as good as any RB in the NFL. Cook has run for 369 yards (7.1 YC) for five TDs (plus one TD catch) in Minnesota's back-to-back wins. More on Cousins, Cook and Minnesota's defense in my 'closing argument.'

The Bears have used two QBs this season but with Trubisky sidelined with a shoulder injury, Foles is the current 'man.' He blows hot-and-cold but with RB Montgomery (472 yards) out with a concussion, he's thrown 93 passes the last two games (64 completions / 68.9%) for 607 yards with four TDs and just one INT. Chicago's best receiver, Allen Robinson (57 catches with three TDs) is listed as questionable but is expected to play. Fellow WRs Mooney and Miller have combined for 63 catches and four TDs, while TE Jimmy Graham looks 'young' again, with 35 catches and five TDs (had just 38 catches with Green Bay all of last season).

In closing, let's look defense, first. The Vikings are allowing 29.2 PPG on 417.9 YPG, while Chicago allows 21.1 PPG on 335.1 YPG. Chicago head coach Mike Nagy is a perfect 4-0 SU vs Minnesota in his first two seasons (1st of two meetings this season, tonight) and Kirk Cousins is 0-3 in three meetings with the Bears as a Viking (sat out meaningless Week 17 game in 2019), with Minnesota averaging a WOEFUL 12.0 PPG in those contests. There is no denying how good Cook can be but in Cousins' three losses vs the Bears, Cook has averaged a miniscule 28.7 YPG on the ground. Two last factoids. Cousins is 0-9 in his career on Monday nights, which is the worst record of any QB in NFL history! If that's not enough, how about the fact that Minnesota is a dismal 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games at Soldier Field? Not sure why there has been so much 'play' on Minnesota but I'm taking the home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC West Game of the Year is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET.

The NFC West owns a collective 20-13 (.606) record, second to only the AFC North's mark of 21-10-1, plus it has the best point differential of any division at plus-144 (all four teams are in the plus category). The Los Angeles Rams spent last week on a bye and actually gained ground, as Seattle, Arizona, and San Francisco all lost. "It was a pretty solid bye week," Rams WR Cooper Kupp said. "They did us some favors there." The 5-3 Rams are within a game of the first-place Seahawks (6-2) as the teams get set to meet Sunday at SoFi Stadium.

Seattle opened the season 5-0 but has lost TWO of its last three, with Russell Wilson showing a 'human' side. He's completing 71.0% on the season for 2,541 yards for 2,818 yards with 28 TDs and 8 INTs (117.1 QB rating) but FIVE of his eight INTs on the season have come in the team's two losses. Seattle's run game (without Russell's 265 yards on 7.2 YPC) is very mediocre and what's more, the Seahawks have been without RBs Chris Carson (mid-foot sprain) and Carlos Hyde (hamstring) each of the past two weeks and it's uncertain if they'll return for this one. Then there is Seattle's defense, which has been a HUGE concern all season. Seattle ranks dead-last in allowing 455.8 YPG and is 30th of 32 teams in points allowed at 30.4 per game.

LA's Jared Goff is not having a great season but still completes 65.5% for 2,145 yards with 13 TDs and six INTs. He's got an excellent WR duo in Kupp (48 catches) and Woods (37 catches) plus a pair of TEs who have each caught 20 passes and combined for four TD grabs. The departure of RB Todd Gurley has not hurt a bit as in fact, the Rams averaged just 93.7 YPG rushing on 3.7 YPC last season, while this year's "RB by Committee" concept has produced 137.8 YPG on 4.4 YPC. Then there is the LA defense, which is allowing just 291.9 YPG (2nd-best) and more importantly, only 19.0 PPG (also 2nd-best)!

Seattle returns from a performance at Buffalo (allowed John Allen to throw for 415 yards and three TDs) and finds themselves on the road again here. This well-rested Rams team is on a 9-3-1 ATS run after a bye and is 3-0 at home in 2020, allowing just 12.0 PPG. Rams move into a first-place tie with the Seahawks after with win (will the Cards make it a three-way tie?).

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on the LV Raiders at 4:05 ET

The Raiders relocated to Las Vegas for the 2020 season, as Jon Gruden's second stint with the team entered its third season. The Raiders went 4-12 in Year One and then 7-9 last season. Will the third time be the charm? The now Las Vegas Raiders begin the second half of their season Sunday afternoon against the visiting Denver Broncos off back-to-back victories and at 5-3, are in the thick of the AFC wild card play 'picture' (catching 8-1 KC in the AFC West is a bit of a stretch). Denver opened the current season off THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972 and Drew Lock got the start in Week 1, giving Denver's its 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning led the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win. He has missed some time earlier but he has been 'at the controls' the last four games.

Denver comes in off Denver a 34-27 loss at Atlanta, after the Broncos had beaten the Chargers the previous week 34-30, scoring the winning TD with 0:00 on the clock. The week before that, the Broncos lost 43-16 to the Chiefs. Doing some quick math, the Denver D has allowed 35.7 PPG over its last three games. While Lock has had his moments, he's completing a poor 56.5% on the season for 1,240 yards with six TDs and six INTs (QB rating of 73.6). The Broncos expected much more from FA Melvin Gordon but he's got just 393 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) with four TDS. Denver is averaging a modest 116.3 YPG on the ground and its passing game is inconsistent, at best. TE Fant leads with 32 catches, while WRs Jeudy (30 catches / 16.1 YPC / 2 TDs) and Patrick (27 catches / 14.2 YPC / 3 TDs) are not exactly a dynamic duo. Jeudy (shoulder) didn't practice much this week and is questionable. More bad news came to a defense already struggling in that DE Shelby Harris, who sat out the loss to the Falcons while in self-quarantine following close contact with someone who had contracted COVID-19, tested positive for the disease on Wednesday morning and will not play Sunday.

The struggling Denver defense will have to find a way to slow down Las Vegas QB Derek Carr, who is having a "career season." He's completing 69.8% for 2,002 yards with 16 TDs and just two INTs (110.0 QB rating). His favorite targets are TE Waller (50 catches / 4 TDs) and WR Renfro (27 catches / 2 TDs). WR Agholor may have just 17 catches but he's averaging 20.4 YPC and has a team-high five TD receptions. The Raiders OL has been devastated by injuries but Carr just keeps getting the job done plus 2nd-year RB Jacobs has followed an excellent rookie season (1,150 yards and 7 TDs), by rushing for 588 yards with six TDs plus had added 26 catches (had only 20 all last season).

The recent play of the Denver defense (see above) makes me believe Carr and Co. should be in complete control. The fact that the Raiders have lost EACH of their last two home games makes me like them even more. Note that those two losses came against the 7-2 Buffalo Bills and the 6-3 Tampa Bay 'Bradys.' Denver is nowhere near in the class of those two teams. Want more? The home team is on a perfect 8-0 SU run (6-2 ATS) in this series plus the Broncos are on an 8-19-1 ATS run vs division opponents. C'mon, the sad-sack Falcons (just 2-6 at the time) closed as 4 1/2-point home favorites over the Broncos last Sunday. This price is 'CHEAP!' Lay it.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Featured" Sunday Total is on Phi/NYG Over at 1:00 ET.

It's Week 10 and the 2-7 Giants can actually say with a straight face, if we win on Sunday, we are "right in the hunt" for the division title. It's true, thanks to the NFC East being arguably the worst in NFL history here in 2020. The 3-4-1 Eagles are in first place, followed by 2-6 Washington and then the 2-7 Cowboys and Cowboys. These teams met back on Oct 22 in Philadelphia (Week 7), with New York controlling most of the first 3 1/2 quarters, leading 21-10 with less than five minutes left. However, Carson Wentz threw 3- and 18-yard TD passes to 'escape' with a 22-21 win.

Philly QB Wentz entered this season having thrown EXACTLY seven INTs in each of the last THREE seasons, while passing for 81 TD passes. However, Wentz has really struggled in 2020, completing only 58.4% for 1,883 yards with as many INTs (12) as TDs (12), His 12 INTs are an NFL-high and he's also lost FOUR fumbles. His QB rating is just 73.2, after posting ratings of 101.9, 102.2 and 93.1 the last three years. Philly's many injuries haven't helped. TE Ertz and WR Jackson remain on IR but after a bye week,RB Miles Sanders and WR Alshon Jeffery are expected back. Miles led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving) and has run for 434 yards (6.1 YPC) with three TDs in five games this season. Philly's defense is no better than average, allowing 340.1 PPG (10th) but 25.6 PPG (17th).

Speaking of QBs that make mistakes, let me submit the name of Daniel Jones. He's completing 62.4% for 1,878 yards with eight TDs and nine INTs. I will add that he's also New York's leading rusher, adding 320 yards on 8.0 YPC. He WAS turnover free in New York's win last Sunday (more later) but even with that mistake-free game, the second-year QB has committed a whopping 36 turnovers in 21 career starts. The only NFL quarterback with a worse ratio to start his career was Ryan Leaf (OUCH!). With Barkley done for the season, the New York running game is non-existent. Subtract Jones' totals and New York's RBs are averaging 70.4 YPG on 3.7 YPC. TE Engram leads with 36 catches, followed by WR Slayton (33 catches / 14.9 YPC / 3 TDs). It's possible we'll see more of Golden Tate in this game. Tate signed a four-year, $37 million deal last year (he had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons from 2014-17) in an attempt to fill the void created by the trade of Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns. However, he's been in 'the dog house' in 2020, playing just over 50% of the offensive snaps the past few weeks prior to his benching. Tate has 22 catches on 29 targets for 226 yards with two TDs this season in a reduced role. He apologized earlier this week so maybe...The New York defense is similar to that of Philadelphia's, allowing 24.3 PPG on 360.0 YPG.

Philly's Week 7 22-21 win over the Giants gave the Eagles SEVEN straight victories over their NFC East rivals but note that the Giants have covered in FIVE of those contests. The Giants lost that Thursday night game at Philly by allowing two TDs in the final 4:38. The Giants led 20-3 at Washington last Sunday but needed TWO fourth-quarter interceptions to hold on for a 23-20 win. That said, the Giants enter this contest having covered FIVE of their last six, while averaging 24.2 PPG in their last five. Neither defense is any better than average and I look for both teams to again score 20 points and for the winner to maybe get into the 30s. Go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the NY Giants at 1:00 ET.

It's Week 10 and the 2-7 Giants can actually say with a straight face, if we win on Sunday, we are "right in the hunt" for the division title. It's true, thanks to the NFC East being arguably the worst in NFL history here in 2020. The 3-4-1 Eagles are in first place, followed by 2-6 Washington and then the 2-7 Cowboys and Cowboys. These teams met back on Oct 22 in Philadelphia (Week 7), with New York controlling most of the first 3 1/2 quarters, leading 21-10 with less than five minutes left. However, Carson Wentz threw 3- and 18-yard TD passes to 'escape' with a 22-21 win.

Philly QB Wentz entered this season having thrown EXACTLY seven INTs in each of the last THREE seasons, while passing for 81 TD passes. However, Wentz has really struggled in 2020, completing only 58.4% for 1,883 yards with as many INTs (12) as TDs (12), His 12 INTs are an NFL-high and he's also lost FOUR fumbles. His QB rating is just 73.2, after posting ratings of 101.9, 102.2 and 93.1 the last three years. Philly's many injuries haven't helped. TE Ertz and WR Jackson remain on IR but after a bye week, RB Miles Sanders and WR Alshon Jeffery are expected back. Miles led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving) and has run for 434 yards (6.1 YPC) with three TDs in five games this season. Philly's defense is no better than average, allowing 340.1 PPG (10th) but 25.6 PPG (17th).

Speaking of QBs that make mistakes, let me submit the name of Daniel Jones. He's completing 62.4% for 1,878 yards with eight TDs and nine INTs. I will add that he's also New York's leading rusher, adding 320 yards on 8.0 YPC. He WAS turnover free in New York's win last Sunday (more later) but even with that mistake-free game, the second-year QB has committed a whopping 36 turnovers in 21 career starts. The only NFL quarterback with a worse ratio to start his career was Ryan Leaf (OUCH!). With Barkley done for the season, the New York running game is non-existent. Subtract Jones' totals and New York's RBs are averaging 70.4 YPG on 3.7 YPC. TE Engram leads with 36 catches, followed by WR Slayton (33 catches / 14.9 YPC / 3 TDs). It's possible we'll see more of Golden Tate in this game. Tate signed a four-year, $37 million deal last year (he had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons from 2014-17) in an attempt to fill the void created by the trade of Odell Beckham Jr. to the Cleveland Browns. However, he's been in 'the dog house' in 2020, playing just over 50% of the offensive snaps the past few weeks prior to his benching. Tate has 22 catches on 29 targets for 226 yards with two TDs this season in a reduced role. He apologized earlier this week so maybe...The New York defense is similar to that of Philadelphia's, allowing 24.3 PPG on 360.0 YPG.

Philly's Week 7 22-21 win over the Giants gave the Eagles SEVEN straight victories over their NFC East rivals but note that the Giants have covered in FIVE of those contests. The Giants lost that Thursday night game at Philly by allowing two TDs in the final 4:38. The Giants led 20-3 at Washington last Sunday but needed TWO fourth-quarter interceptions to hold on for a 23-20 win. That said, the Giants enter this contest having covered FIVE of their last six, while averaging 24.2 PPG in their last five. I want the points but I'm calling for the OUTRIGHT win!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC South Game of the Year is on the Ten Titans at 8:20 ET.

The 5-3 Indianapolis Colts visit Nashville on Thursday night to take on the 6-2 Tennessee Titans. The Titans can open a two-game lead in the division with a win, while the Colts can move into a first-place tie with the Titans by winning. The teams meet again at Indianapolis in Week 12. The Colts signed QB Philip Rivers in the offseason as a FA and he's been solid (more below) but it's the team's defense that's been the key, as the Colts are allowing a league-low 290.0 YPG and 20.0 PPG (3rd-best). The Titans entered the season off their great playoff run of last season (won at New England and Baltimore before losing at KC in the AFC championship game) and got off to a 5-0 start. However, back-to-back losses followed, before last Sunday's 24-17 win over the Bears.

Rivers took over as the Chargers' starting QB in 2006 and over the next 14 seasons, started EVERY game, topping 3,000 passing yards in every one, including passing for over 4,000 yards 11 times (he's topped 4,000 in his last SEVEN seasons). He's on pace for another 4,000-yard season in 2020, as through eight games he's got 2,087 yards. His completion rate of 67.9% is slightly above his career mark (64.8) and his QB rating of 91.9 is just below his career mark (95.0). However, he has thrown a modest 10 TD passes and has seven INTs. WR Hilton (22) looks like he'll be able to play but TE Cox (17) is out. The team's leading receiver is RB Hines (28 catches for three TDs). The running game offers little help, averaging 102.4 YPG on 3.7 YPC. Rookie RB Taylor has underwhelmed so far, with 416 yards on 3.9 YPC with four TDs. As noted earlier, it's been the defense that's led the way for the Colts in 2020.

Ryan Tannehill took over at QB for Mariota midway through the 2019 season and was a steady hand during the Titans' strong regular season finish and their playoff run. However, most thought of him as little more than a "game-manager," with the Tennessee offense relying on RB Derrick Henry. Henry dominated most of the time in 2019 but here in 2020, Tannehill has broken through (out). He's completing 65.7% for 1,981 yards with a great TD/INT ratio of 19-3 and a QB rating of 109.4. Henry ran for 1,540 yards with 16 TDs in 2019 and is on pace to duplicate that in 202 with 843 yards and eight TDs. The Tennessee defense has NOT played as well this season, allowing about 30 more YPG and more importantly, 25.1 PPG, after allowing 20.7 PPG in 2019.

The Colts had won five of six before Sunday's 24-10 home loss to Baltimore, which dropped them a game behind Tennessee for first place in the AFC South. Meanwhile, Tennessee ended a two-game slide with its best defensive effort in a month. The Titans held the Bears scoreless through  three quarters and fixed their third-down issues, allowing Chicago to convert just 2 of 15 after permitting opponents to cash in on nearly 62 percent during the first seven games. The Bears are no offensive juggernaut but that's the case with the Colts too, with Indy averaging 26.o PPG (15th) and  360.5 YPG (21st). Yes, the Colts D has been terrific but the Titans are averaging 29.0 PPG (7th-best).

As noted above, this will be the first of two meetings between the teams in 17 days, as they play again on Nov 29 in Indianapolis. Earning a win here is HUGE. My bet says it's Tennessee, as the Titans are 8-3 SU at home since Tannehill assumed the starting job and this price means a "W" is basically a cover!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the TB Bucs at 8:20 ET.

When the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints met in Week 1, it featured the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that was hardly the ONLY storyline, as those particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees was the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady was second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. The Saints won that Week 1 game 34-23 but as teams meet again in Week 9, the 6-2 Bucs sit atop the NFC South with the 5-2 Saints right on their heels. 

Brees is completing 73.1% for 1,898 yards with 13 TDs and just three INTs, while Brady's completing 66.2% for 2,189 yards with 20 TDs and only four INTs. Brees still has more career passing yards than Brady (about 3,000 more) but TB 12 now leads Brees in career TD passes, 561 to 560. Brees, who has had shoulder issues this season, has played almost the entire season with WR Michael Thomas (caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. He has practiced on a limited basis this week but the Saints have yet to make a firm commitment on his status. As for Brady, he threw two INTs and was sacked three times in the opener but has since led the Bucs to a 6-1 record with 18 TDs and just two INTs.

RB Kamara didn't sign a new deal with the Saints until right before the 2020 season opened but he's run for 431 yards (5.0 YPC) with four TDs, while leading the team in receptions with 55 (three TD catches), The Bus have a solid RB as well in Jones, who has 529 yards (4.5 YPC) with four TDs.  WR Evans has 30 catches and a team-high seven TD catches, while fellow WR Miller has 25 catches (two TDs), averaging a team-high 16.0 YPC. Then there's Gronk, who is back in form after catching 14 passes the last three games, adding one TD catch in each game. Of course, the HUGE news out of Tampa recently has been that the Buccaneers activated wide receiver Antonio Brown from the suspended list earlier in the week. They signed the former Steeler, Raider and Patriot on Oct 27. "He'll have his role," Bucs head coach Bruce Arians said. "It could be 10 plays, it could be 35 plays. I wouldn't anticipate 60 plays, for sure, but we'll just see how it goes." Arians said Brown was "full speed" in his first workout with his new team.

I had the Saints in that Week 1 win but will "Back the Bucs" in this one. Tampa Bay's defense is third in yards allowed (299.5 per game), tied for first in takeaways (14) and tied for 2nd in sacks (28). However, the most important defensive number is always points allowed and the Bucs are allowing 20.6 PPG, compared to the 28.1 PPG allowed by the Saints OK, the Bucs have traditionally been a VERY poor home favorite but that was ALL pre-TB 12. Tampa Bay has played three home games in 2020, beating the Panthers 31-17, the Chargers 38-31 and the Packers 38-10. This is Tampa Bay's LONE home game in a four-game stretch and a win means the Bucs will extend their lead over the Saints to 1 1/2-games (two up in the loss column). Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AFC/NFC Game of the Month is on the Arz Cardinals at 4:25 ET.

The Dolphins and Cards are both 2020 surprises. Miami's playoff appearance in 2016 is its ONLY one over the previous 11 seasons. The Dolphins had gone 18-30 in the three seasons since that 2016 playoff appearance but enter this contest 4-3, having won FOUR of five, including three straight. Arizona was 13-3 back in 2015 but followed with four straight non-winning seasons, including a combined 8-23-2 record the last two seasons. However, the Cards come off their bye week at 5-2 and also enter this game on a THREE-game winning streak. Drawing top-billing in this game will be former first-round QB picks Kyler Murray (No. 1 overall in 2019) and Tua Tagovailoa (No. 5 in 2020).

The Dolphins made the decision to bench veteran QB Ryan Fitzgerald and give Tua his first career start in Miami's Week 8 game against the Rams. Last Monday's headline read: Tua wins his first NFL start! Can't argue with Miami's 28-17 win over the LA Rams but didn't Miami win DESPITE Tua? He fumbled on his first pass attempt as Rams star defensive tackle Aaron Donald knocked the ball loose, setting up the Rams on Miami's 15-yard line. Three plays later, it was 7-0 LA. However, the Dolphins scored 28 consecutive first-half points to take a 28-7 lead, thanks in large part to four turnovers (two interceptions, two fumbles) by Rams QB Jared Goff. One fumble was returned 78 yards for a TD plus Miami added an 88-yard punt return TD, as well. As for Tua, he completed 12 of 22 for 93 yards with one TD (zero INTs). His longest completion was for 15 yards and his TD pass was a three-yarder.  Miami's running game has not been ANY help, averaging just 98.0 YPG on 3.6 YPC. Myles Gaskins leads the team with 387 yards rushing on just 3.9 YPC and two TDs. WRs Parker (30 catches / 12.2 YPC / 3 TDs) and Williams (14 catches / 16.3 YPC / 5 TDs) will give Tua some quality targets but can he deliver the ball to them? We'll see. Miami's defense allows 376.0 YPG (middle-of-the-road) but only 18.6 PPG, the lowest of any team!

That defense will get a good test vs Murray and the Arizona offense. Murray is completing 66.8% for 1,847 yards with 13 TDs and seven INTs. He adds 437 yards rushing on 6.7 YPC with seven TDs. Drake has turned into a solid RB, rushing for 512 yards on 4.3 YPC with four TDs. While Miami averages under 100 YPG on the ground (see above), Arizona averages 160.7 YPG on 5.2 YPC. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald is still around but he averages just 7.1 YPC on 29 receptions (zero TDs). However, Hopkins has 57 catches (12.4 YPC / 3 TDs) and Kirk just 18 receptions but averages 15.4 YPC and five TDs. Arizona's D entered its Week 7 game with Seattle and Russell Wilson allowing just 18.6 PPG but allowed 572 yards and 34 points, as Wilson threw for 388 yards and three TDs. However, Arizona despite trailing by 10 points midway through the 4th quarter, Arizona came back for a 37-34 OT win, Seattle's only loss of 2020. BTW,,,The Cardinals picked off Wilson THREE times, the same number of interceptions he's thrown in Seattle's SIX wins, combined.

I talked about Arizona's advantage in the running game earlier and Miami's Gaskin (knee injury) and backup running back Matt Breida (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday. Then, Gaskin was put on injured reserve Thursday and will have to miss at least three games. Murray has 23 starts under his belt and gets better week-by-week, while Tua makes only his second career start, after a very mediocre first one. What's more, this start comes on the road. The Dolphins are just 5-10 ATS as a non-division road dog, while Arizona comes off a bye on a THREE-game winning streak SU and ATS, with an average margin of victory of 17.0 PPG.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Featured" NFL Sunday Total (Week 9) is on NYG/Was Over at 1:00 ET.

Washington and the NY Giants met in MetLife Stadium in Week 6, with the Giants eking out a 20-19 win. Kyle Allen threw a 22-yard TD pass to Cam Sims with 36 seconds left but head coach Ron Rivera's gamble for a two-point try was unsuccessful. Washington bounced back from that loss to dominate Dallas 25-3 in Week 7 and Week 8 served as the team's bye week. That Week 6 win for New York is the Giants' lone win of the 2020 season, as the Giants followed it with "close but no cigar" losses at Philly (22-21) and home to Tampa Bay (25-23). Washington's just 2-5 but in the NFC East, where 3-4-1 Philly 'masquerades' as a division-leader, a win keeps Washington in the hunt. As for the 1-7 Giants, it's really a stretch to think the team has any realistic division hopes. However, the Giants do own the NFC East's best ATS record (5-3), with Washington following at 4-3 and division-leader Philly checking in at 3-5.

The Giants have NO running game with Barkley out for the season, as QB Daniel Jones leads the team with 316 yards (9.3 YPC!). The team averages only 98.5 YPG on the ground but if one were to subtract Jones' contributions, the team's RBs are averaging 59.0 YPG on a sad-sack 3.3 YPC. The Giants will need to score through the air but Jones is completing 61.8% for a modest 1,666 yards (barely over 200 per game) plus has more INTs (nine) than TDs (seven). New York's D is allowing 24.6 PPG on 354.8 YPG.

Washington was impressive in its 25-3 win over the Dallas Cowboys, out-gaining Dallas 397-142. Rookie RB Antonio Gibson ran for a career-high 128 yards, while Kyle Allen was 15-for-25 with two TDs and 194 yards in his third start since replacing Dwayne Haskins. The QB change has been good. Allen has completed 68.7% in his last two games, with four TD passes and just one INT, posting QB ratings of 97.3 and 111.1 (against Dallas). Gibson now has 371 rushing yards on the season (4.4 YPC and two TDs) plus fellow RB McKissic has 25 catches. WR McLaurin has 43 grabs (13.4 YPC / 2 TDs) and TE Thomas 21 catches with three TDs.

The Giants have won FIVE of the last six in this series plus have posted an impressive 14-3 ATS mark as a road underdog. The Giants enter having scored 34, 20, 22 and 23 points in their last four games (an average of 24.9 PPG) and I like them to be in that point-range again here. As for Washington, Allen is the right choice at QB and RB Gibson is starting to make an impact. Washington is up against a New York D which has allowed 25.8 PPG in its last four, so I'm expecting them to score along with the Giants. Go O-V-E-R!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC Championship Game Rematch is on the GB Packers at 8:20 ET.

The Green Bay Packers and San Francisco 49ers both went 13-3 and met in the NFC championship game in 2019. The result was a DOMINATING San Francisco win, as the 49ers led 27-0 at the half and cruised to a 37-20. It's a rematch of that contest in this Week 9 Thursday Night game, as the 49ers again welcome the Packers to Levi's Stadium. The 49ers opened 2-3, then followed with B2B wins (24-16 at home against the Rams and 33-6 at the Pats), but then lost 37-27 at Seattle last Sunday. The 4-4 Niners find themselves in last-place in the NFL's toughest division, behind the 6-1 Seahawks, 5-2 Cards and 5-3 Rams. The Packers sprinted to a 4-0 SU & ATS start but after a bye (Week 5), have sandwiched a 35-20 Week 7 win at Houston with a 38-10 loss at Tampa Bay (Week 6) and a 28-22 home loss to Minnesota (Week 8). Green Bay is 5-2 and just a half-game up on the Bears in the NFC North.

Aaron Rodgers entered last week's game with Minnesota on quite a roll, except for the team's 38-10 loss at Tampa. Rodgers was 16 of 35 for only 160 yards without a TD pass and was intercepted twice in that one. However, in Green Bay's five wins, he'd thrown for 1,497 yards (299.4 per game) with 17 TDs and not a SINGLE interception in 173 attempts! Rodgers had a solid game vs the Vikings, completing 27 of 41 for 291 yards with three TDs and zero INTs. However, RB Aaron Jones (389 yards on 5.2 YPC and 5 TDs plus 18 catches for 2 TDs) missed his second straight game with a calf injury and Green Bay was able to run for just 109 yards. In contrast, Minnesota's Dalvin Cook ran for 163 yards with three TDs and added a TD catch. Green Bay WR Davante Adams had missed two games this season but had 13 receptions for 196 yards and two TDs in Week 7 and while his seven catches last Sunday only totaled 53 yards, THREE went for TDs. He has 43 catches and seven TDs in five games this season, while TE Tonyan has five TDs in a modest 23 catches. Green Bay's defense has underperformed from last season, allowing 26.7 PPG after allowing 19.6 PPG in last season.

San Francisco's loss at Seattle not only dropped them into last place but adding insult to injury, TE Kittles (foot) and QB Jimmy Garoppolo (ankle) both got hurt and each will miss multiple games. It is possible that neither player will suit up again this season. The team's best RB Mostert (303 yards on 5.9 YPC) is out with an injury and after Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for a career-high three TDs and 112 yards in the win over Houston, he sustained a high left ankle sprain that landed him on injured reserve. The 49ers ran for just 52 yards (2.4 YPC) against Seattle. Nick Mullens replace Jimmy G last week and completed 18 of 25 for 238 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. Mullens is completing 70.4% for 852 yards with seven TDs and five INTs (5-5 ratio prior to last week).

I'll admit that San Francisco as a home dog (climbing to almost a TD by Wednesday) seems tempting. However, this team has SO many key injuries and now COVID issues, that the 49ers are a 'shell' of the club which led KC 20-10 in last year's Super Bowl midway through the fourth quarter. THREE of San Francisco's four wins have come over the NY Giants, NY Jets and the NE Pats, a trio which owns a combined record of 3-20. Green Bay gets some revenge from last year's NFC championship loss and gets its season back on track with a comfortable win.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SNF Magic play is my "Featured" Sunday total on Dal/Phi Over at 8:20 ET.

The 2-5 Cowboys will be in Philadelphia on Sunday night to take on the 2-4-1 Eagles and believe it or not, the winners will enter Week 9 (mid-point of the NFL's 17-week schedule) with the division lead. That's what happens when one plays in the NFC East, as its four teams are a combined 7-20-1!). The Dallas Cowboys opened NFL 2020 with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green Bay) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherited what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owned just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. The current season has been an unmitigated disaster and now, following injuries to QB Dak Prescott and then Andy Dalton, Ben DiNucci is expected to make his first start as QB of the Dallas Cowboys (more later).

The Eagles fought through injuries in 2019 to capture the NFC East title with a 9-7 record, the second time they had won the NFC East in the last three seasons (qualified as a wild card in the other season). QB Carson Wentz entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of those last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday completing just 58.6% with 10 TDs and 10 INTs, which is tied for the most of any QB in the league with Kirk Cousins. His 74.3 QB rating is among the very worst of regular starters (more later).

Ben DiNucci became the first player in Pennsylvania state history to throw for 4,000 yards in a season at Pine-Richland High School in suburban Pittsburgh. He led his team to a state title and was named Pennsylvania's Gatorade Player of the Year. He originally committed to Penn before switching to Pitt. After three seasons with the Panthers, DiNucci transferred to James Madison, an FCS program, and passed for 3,441 yards with 29 TDs and six interceptions in 2019. The Cowboys selected him with the 231st overall pick, the 11th QB taken. Now, here he is playing on SNF and if he can lead his team to a win, the Cowboys would regain first place in the sad-sack NFC East. It's not as if he doesn't have anything to work with. RB Elliott is not having a stellar season but he has run for 458 yards on 4.1 YPC with five TDs and has added 33 catches (hard to argue he's NOT a quality RB). Dallas has a trio of quality WRs in Cooper (53 catches / 2 TDs), Lamb (36 / 2 TDs) and Gallup, who may have just 19 catches but averages 19.5 YPC. TE Schultz isn't 'chopped liver,' catching 25 balls for two TDs. The problem is the Dallas D which is allowing a league-worst 34.7 PPG on 408.1 YPG.

Philly receivers struggled to stay healthy last season and that's the case again in 2020. More bad news comes Philly's way with the news that RB Miles Sanders will miss this game with a knee injury, as he's the team's most versatile offensive player. That said, I'm not ready to give up on Wentz and he is going up against a REALLY bad Dallas defense. I agree that many key receivers are out but Fulgham has caught 21 passes (14.3 YPC and two TDs) the last three games, while fellow WR Ward has a team-high 29 catches on the season. TE Ertz is out but Rodgers stepped up with SIX catches in Philly's last game for 85 yards. What's more, TE Dallas Goedert (ankle) and rookie WR Jalen Reagor (thumb) have been activated from IR and could play. Against this Dallas D, Wentz is more than capable of putting up points. Remember, the Eagles scored 29 points at Pittsburgh, which has allowed the fewest yards in the league (286.3 YPG) and a modest 19.7 PPG.

Getting back to DiNucci, he'll face a Philly defense allowing 28.0 PPG. Dallas is off a humiliating 25-3 loss at Washington last week and the Cowboys can't win here by relying on its defense. DiNucci wouldn't be the first "unknown" to surprise in his NFL debut and that's EXACTLY what I expect here. Getting back to Wentz, I expect him to deliver a season-best effort. Go OVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Sea Seahawks at 4:25 ET.

The Seattle Seahawks came back from its bye week 5-0 but the team had been 'walking a tightrope' for most of those five games, as THREE of Seattle's five victories had come down to the game's final 15 seconds. Seattle entered its SNF contest in Arizona with a defense that had allowed a league-high 431.2 YPG. Seattle led 34-24 midway through the fourth quarter but couldn't hang on, as Murray drove the Cards 75 yards to close within three points with just 2;28 remaining. Seattle punted it back to Arizona, which tied the game with a 44-yard FG on the final play of regulation and won it with a FG in OT.

5-1 Seattle welcomes the 4-3 SF 49ers to CenturyLink Field this Sunday. The 49ers are not just defending NFC West champs but they are also defending NFC champs. The Niners opened 2-3 but have won two in a row (24-16 at home against the Rams and 33-6 at the Pats) to get back to 4-3. However, the 49ers still find themselves in last-place in the NFL's toughest division, behind the 5-2 Cards and Rams plus the 5-1 Seahawks. Safe to say, this is a big game for both teams.

Jimmy Garoppolo was 20 of 25 for 277 yards in San Francisco's 33-6 rout of the Pats, in what was his first game against his former team. However, he didn't throw a TD and had three INTs. Leading rusher Mostert sat out with an injury but Jeff Wilson Jr. rushed for a career-high three TDs and 112 yards but sustained a high left ankle sprain that landed him on injured reserve. TE Kittle is back from an early injury and has 31 catches in his last four games. The WR corps is mediocre at best and who knows who will be healthy among the RBs. The San Francisco defense is again playing well, allowing 19.4 PPG, the same it allowed in 2019

Russell Wilson was widely considered the front-runner for the NFL's MVP award through Week 6, as he had completed 72.8% for 1,502 yards while leading the league with 19 TD passes (just three INTs) and with a 129.8 QB rating. Wilson completed 33 of 50 passes for 388 yards and three TDs vs Arizona but he also had THREE costly interceptions. Wilson  is also a key part of Seattle's rushing attack, running for 237 yards on 8.2 YPC. RB Carson adds a team-high 323 yards on 4.9 YPC and three TDs plus also has 22 receptions with three TDs. Lockett has 45 catches and a team-high seven TDs, while fellow WR Metcalf is the "big play" receiver, with 24 catches, a 21.6 YPC average and five TDs. The two-headed TE duo of Olsen and Dissly combine for 27 catches and two TDs. However, the defense had better get better, fast!

"There were so many opportunities to win the football game," Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll said of last Sunday's game, in which a 48-yard touchdown reception by DK Metcalf in overtime was wiped out by a penalty. "We've been in the situation where we count on things to happen in the right place, happen in the right situations and the right complementary play occurs, and we just missed it." QB Russell Wilson added, "I thought we played a great game except for those three plays. Those are my fault. There's so much that we can do, and we have so much confidence. Our confidence is not going to waver. They're a great football team, too. We knew it was going to be a battle."

Except for a win over the Rams in Week 5, San Francisco's three other wins have come over the sad-sack Giants and Jets (a combined 1-13) and the Pats, who are beginning to look like a team 'going nowhere!' The 49ers come in with significant injuries on "both sides of the ball," while Russell Wilson comes off losing a game for the first time in his nine-year career when leading by four or more points at halftime. He had been 59-0 in such situations. I'm "all over" the Seahawks!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month is on the Bal Ravens at 1:00 ET.

The Pittsburgh Steelers lost "Big Ben" in Week 2 of 2019 and missed the playoffs for the second consecutive season last year. However, the 38-year-old Roethlisberger is playing with a surgically repaired right elbow in 2020 and is "looking good!" When the Steelers beat the Eagles 38-29 in Week 5, it marked the first time Pittsburgh had opened 4-0 in 41 years (hard to believe but true!). The Steelers have tacked on two more wins since then, 38-7 at home to the Browns and 27-24 at Tennessee, in a 'battle' of unbeatens. When Seattle lost at Arizona in Week 7's SNF, Pittsburgh stood as the last remaining undefeated NFL team (6-0 and 5-1 ATS). The Steelers will carry that mantle into a game at Baltimore on Sunday with the Ravens, who are 5-1, losing only a MNF game to the KC Chiefs (anyone know if KC is any good?). The winner of Sunday's contest will move on as the AFC North's first place team, a game Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin labeled as the league's game of the week. Reasonable enough, don't you think.

Roethlisberger is completing 68.2% for 1,446 yards with 13 TDs and four INTs (QB rating of 105.2). RB James Connor (451 yards on 4.7 YPC with four TDs) leads a rushing game averaging 129.7 YPG. WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (32 catches) and Diontae Johnson (24 catches) each have three TD receptions but NEITHER is averaging as much as 10.0 YPC. Chase Claypool, a second-year WR from Notre Dame, has 18 catches but averages 18.5 YPC with four TDs. Three of those TD plus a rushing TD came in Pittsburgh's 38-29 Week 5 win over Philly. TE Ebron has been solid with 22 catches and one TD. The Pittsburgh defense allows 19.7 PPG (6th-best) but is No. 1 in total D (286.3 YPG), first in sacks (26) and second in rushing yards allowed (68.8 YPG).

Baltimore was just 2-2 through the first four games of the 2019 season but the Ravens would win their final 12 games, covering NINE of their last 10. QB Lamar Jackson was league MVP, posting a 113.3 QB rating (36-6 ratio) while rushing for 1,206 yards (6.9 YPC / 7 TDs), which set a single-record for QBs. Baltimore set a single season record for team rushing yards and became the first team since at least 1950 to average 200-plus pass YPG (201.6) and 200-plus rush YPG (206) in the same season. The D was not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG). However, the Ravens were unceremoniously bounced from the playoffs last season, losing 28-12 at home to the Titans as 10-point favorites.

Baltimore and Jackson sure have "something to prove" in 2020 and while they are 5-1, a 34-20 home loss to the Chiefs on MNF (Week 3), "ups the ante" on this first-place showdown with Pittsburgh. Jackson is playing well, completing 63.0% for 1,135 yards with 10 TDs and two INTs, while again leading the team in rushing with 346 yards on 6.9 YPC with two TDs. The running games is averaging a healthy 164.3 YPG but that's down from the team's NFL record 206.0 YPG last season, RB Ingram joined Jackson as a 1,000-yard rusher in 2019 but he has just 225 yards so far this season, as Edwards and Dobbins join him as a rotating three-back attack. WR Brown leads with 26 catches (14.5 YPC but just one TD), while the trio of Snead, Boykin and Duvernoy have combined for 32 catches (also just one TD, combined). TE Andrews has 20 catches and a team-high five TD receptions. The Baltimore D is allowing 339.8 YPG (53 yards more per game than Pittsburgh) but the Ravens are allowing a league-low 17.3 PPG. And after all, isn't that the MOST important stat?

The Ravens are the old Cleveland Browns and this rivalry NEVER lost its intensity with the move to Baltimore. The Ravens are coming off a bye week and get back on the field on a 'money-making' 12-4 regular season ATS run. As noted above, after that MNF loss to KC, the Ravens NEED a "W" here, badly. That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the season 3-0 and then a COVID-19 outbreak had their Week 4 showdown with the Steelers was rescheduled for Week 6. The team's Week 5 game with 4-0 Buffalo was pushed back to a Tuesday night and after winning their first three games by a combined margin of just NINE points (going 0-3 ATS), the Titans routed the Bills 42-16. Tennessee then won a 42-36 OT at Houston, before losing their first game of the season 27-24 to Pittsburgh, The Steelers led that game 27-7 in the late third quarter, before the Titans nearly sent the game to OT but Gostkowski missed a game-tying FG with just 19 seconds left.

The Bengals were coming off a 2-14 season in 2019 but drafted Heisman-winner Joe Burrow with the first overall pick of the 2020 Draft, Head coach Zac Taylor is in just his second season but felt like Burrow was the type of QB the Bengals could build around. Cincy is just 1-5-1 but despite MANY flaws, the Bengals are 5-2 ATS and have been "right in" every game except their 24-3 loss at Baltimore. 

QB Tannehill has been terrific (68.5% / 1,590 yards with 15 TDs and two INTs / 112.3 QB rating) and RB Henry has been his usual self (663 yards / 4.6 YPC / 7 TDs) for the Titans. However, the Titans' D has NOT been good, allowing 401.8 YPG and 25.2 PPG. The team's 'stop unit' can't "make a stop" on third down, as opponents are converting 61 percent of the time, the worst mark for an NFL team in 30 years. Pittsburgh shown a light on just that last Sunday, converting 13 of 18 on third down tries.

Joe Burrow gets little help from his running game (98.9 YPG on 3.7 YPC) and the team's only RB of note, Joe Mixon (428 yards), will miss a second straight game with a foot injury. The OL has allowed Burrow to be sacked 28 times but the rookie has still managed to complete 66.6% for 2,023 yards with nine TDs and five INTs. The defense is about as bad as Tennessee's, allowing 27.7 PPG on 395.1 YPG.

However, except for that loss at Baltimore, the Bengals have beaten the Jags 33-25 at home, tied the Eagles 23-23 in Philly and and lost FOUR games by margins of just THREE, FIVE, FOUR and THREE points! The Titans have played just two road games in 2020, winning by 16-14 at Denver (2-4) and 31-30 at Minnesota (1-5). Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET.

The NFL enters its Week 7 with THREE unbeaten teams. The 5-0 Steelers and 5-0 Titans will square off in Nashville at 1:00 ET and the lone remaining unbeaten, the 5-0 Seahawks will play at Arizona vs the 4-2 Cards. The Raiders were scheduled to host the Bucs in Las Vegas for NBC's Sunday Night Football but had to place four starting offensive linemen plus a safety on the reserve/COVID-19 list. All five players were deemed high-risk contacts and the NFL then announced on Thursday that the Raiders' game against the Bucs had been moved to 4:05 ET "out of an abundance of caution to ensure that a game would be available for fans on Sunday Night Football." This Seattle/Arizona contest will now be Week 7's SNF matchup.

Seattle QB Russell Wilson is widely considered the front-runner for the NFL's MVP award a third of the way through the season, as he's completing 72.8% for 1,502 yards while leading the league with 19 TD passes (just three INTs) and with a 129.8 QB rating. He also contributes to the Seattle running game, rushing for 153 yards on 6.7 YPC with three TDs. RB Carson is the "featured" back and has 289 rushing yards on 4.7 YPC with three TDs. Carlson also has 21 catches with three more TDs. Wilson has an outstanding group of receivers, as Luckett leads with 30 catches but Metcalf has become the big playmaker with 22 catches, a 22.5 YPC average and five TDs. WR Moore has 10 catches (17.3 YPC and three TDs), while TD Olsen adds 15 catches. Seattle's Achilles' Heel is a defense allowing a league-high 431.2 YPG. With scoring way up this year, at least Seattle isn't one of the NINE teams allowing 30-plus PPG (27.8).

Arizona's second-year QB Kyler Murray completed just 9 of 24 attempts against the Cowboys but two went for TDs, including an 80-yarder to Christian Kirk that gave Arizona a 21-0 lead. Murray also rushed for 74 yards and a TD. He's completing 65.9% for 1,487 yards with 10 TDs and six INTs. Those are not quite Wilson-like stats but he's also run for 370 yards (7.3 YPC) with six TDs. RB Kenyan Drake is turning into a solid player, rushing for 4678 yards (4.6 YPC) and four TDs. Future HOF Fitzgerald may have 21 catches but he's averaging only 6.9 YPC without a TD. Hopkins is now the team's "go-to" WR with 47 catches, with Kirk catching 13 passes (18.5 YPC) with three TDs. Arizona owns a HUGE edge on defense, holding opponents to about 100 YPG less than Seattle's D and to just 18.7 PPG (almost 10 PPG less).

Seattle will NOT go 16-0, so a loss is coming and it's a fact that THREE of Seattle's five victories have come down to the game's final 15 seconds. However, Seattle is coming off a bye week (covered FIVE of the last seven in that situation), while Arizona is off its MNF win at Dallas. Murray vs Dalton was a mismatch but can Murray outplay Wilson? My bet says no.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET.

The defending Super Bowl champion KC Chiefs have opened the 2020 season 5-1 and sit atop the AFC West. However, KC is the LONE division winner from 2019 to actually lead its division here in 2020, as the season gets set for Week 7. I won't list all of the reigning division winners 'looking up' to at least ONE team in their respective divisions here but WILL discuss TWO of those seven teams, as they meet Sunday in Foxboro. The San Francisco 49ers won the NFC West last season at 13-3 (and advanced to the Super Bowl) but their 3-3 record leaves them in last-place in 2020, behind not only the 5-0 Seahawks but also the 4-2 Rams and Cards. The Pats are more than just the defending AFC East champs, as New England entered 2020 having captured the AFC East title the previous 11 years and in 17 of the last 19 seasons (since 2001). The Pats welcome the 49ers to Gillette Stadium on Sunday with a 2-3 record. New England hasn't been under .500 through the fifth game or later in any season since they were 3-4 in 2002, which was the last season the Patriots did not win 10-plus games.

The 49ers just evened their record at 3-3 last Sunday night, beating the Rams 24-16. The 49ers rode the excellent play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% for 3,978 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs / 102.0 QB rating), the NFC's best running game (144.1 YPG) and the NFC's stingiest defense (281.0 YPG) all the way to the Super Bowl last season. However, injuries have plagued them all season, on both sides of the ball. Garoppolo was completing 67.3% of his passes (4 TDs / 0 INTs) when he got hurt in Week 2. He returned in Week 5 but with the Miami Dolphins up 30-7 at halftime (Niners would lose 43-17), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan pulled him during the half (concerned for his health). Garoppolo 'was on the money" against the Rams, throwing three first-half TD passes, finishing 23 of 33 for 268 yards without an INT (124.3 QB rating). RB Raheem Mostert also got back in the lineup and ran 17 times for 65 yards before suffering an ankle injury and leaving the game early in the third quarter. TE George Kittle caught seven passes for 109 yards and one TD, as the 49ers offense that did most of its damage in the first half en route to a 21-6 lead. The San Francisco defense, which was last seen serving up 436 yards and 43 points in a blowout home loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, held the Rams to 311 yards, in large part by limiting QB Jared Goff, who finished with a modest 198 passing yards on just 19 of 38 completions. Jason Verrett stalled a Los Angeles Rams third quarter rally with an end-zone interception and a fourth-and-goal (allowing San Francisco to retain a 21-9) and when LA made it a one-score margin on a 40-yard TD pass from Goff with 3:24 to play, the San Francisco offense ran out the clock (Rams never got the ball back).

The New England didn't allow a TD in Week 6 but Denver's Brandon McManus kicked a franchise-record SIX field goals to lift the visiting Denver Broncos to an 18-12 victory last Sunday. The game originally scheduled for Oct 12 and was pushed back to this past Sunday due to several COVID-19 cases in the Patriots' organization. New England was unable to hold many practices over the previous two weeks, including having Friday's session canceled due to center James Ferentz being placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list. QB Cam Newton saw his first action since Week 3 and ran for 76 yards and a touchdown and went 17-for-25 passing but for only 157 yards with TWO interceptions. He has options at WR in Edelman (20 catches), Harry (18 catches) and Byrd (17) plus RB White has 165 catches in the last two games. Newton lead the Past with 225 rushing and has five rushing TDs but they'll need better passing number out of him. RB Sony Michel has run for 173 (6.7 YPC) in just three games but was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list for the Denver game (status unknown at this time for Sunday). The New England D did its job vs Denver, allowing just 299 yards plus holding Denver to 4 of 14 on third downs. The Pats D was the best in the league last season but one can't and didn't expect this year's unit to hold opponents to 14.1 PPG, again. Scores are up in 2020 and the Pats are allowing 22.1 PPG (not bad) and rank 9th in total D, allowing 275.9 YPG.

The 49ers and Patriots are among the NFL’s most storied franchises with 11 SB titles between them (Pats own six and the Niners five). Garoppolo would NO doubt love to get a victory over the team that drafted him (sat behind Brady from 2014-17) but Newton (a former MVP) has MUCH to prove as well. The clincher for me is, it hasn't been often that one can back Belichick (coming off TWO straight losses) at such a small 'price' and at HOME, no less! The 49ers may be 2-0 on the road in 2020 but those wins have come at MetLife Stadium over the Giants and Jets (a combined 1-11).

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

The Atlanta Falcons opened 0-5 and that start got head coach Dan Quinn fired. In my opinion, he should have been fired immediately after Atlanta blew a 28-3 lead in Super Bowl LI against the Patriots (New England scored the game's last 31 points to win 34-28 in OT). Raheem Morris spent three seasons as head coach of the Bucs, producing a poor 17-31 record and had just been promoted to DC in Atlanta at the start of 2020. He was named interim head coach after the firing of Quinn and had to be pleased with Atlanta's 40-23 win at Minnesota last Sunday. Detroit's head coach Matt Patricia knows all about 'feeling the heat,' as he went 6-10 in his first season as head coach in Detroit (2018), before going 3-12-1 last season. The Lions ended 2019 on a NINE-game losing skid. Detroit ended its 11-game slide (2-9 ATS) with a 26-23 win at Arizona in Week 3 but lost the following week at home to the Saints. Detroit opened a 14-0 lead but the Saints then scored on their next FIVE possessions to take a 35-14 lead (Saints won 35-29). The Lions did win last Sunday, crushing the sad-sack Jags 34-16 in Jacksonville

Lions offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell has used Adrian Peterson, rookie De'Andre Swift and Kerryon Johnson in the backfield. Peterson has received the bulk of the work (285 yards on 4.1 YPC / 2 TDs) but Swift had a breakthrough performance against the Jaguars, rushing for 116 yards on 14 carries and two TDs. I'm not sure where that effort came from, as Swift had run for just 44 yards the first four games. The Detroit running game averages just 117.4 YPG. QB Matthew Stafford always puts up big numbers (he surpassed 4,000 yards passing seven straight seasons from 2011-17) but he's just 71-82-1 as a starter in the regular season plus is 0-3 in three postseason games. He's thrown for 1,240 yards through five games (on pace for just under 4,000 yards) with nine TDs and four INTs but his receiving corps seems pretty mediocre. TE Hockenson leads with 17 catches and three TDs but the WR trio of Golladay (14), Jones (14) and Amendola (12) don't scare any secondary.

Matt Ryan, like Stafford, always puts up big numbers (he entered 2020 with NINE straight seasons of 4,000-plus passing yards) but except for Atlanta's 2016 Super Bowl run, he has shown only modest success. Atlanta had a solid running game back in 2016 but the addition of Todd Gurley has not worked out as hoped. He has run for 422 yards (4.3 YPC / 5 TDs) but in the big win over Minnesota last Sunday, he was a non-factor with 47 yards on 20 carries. Who was a factor for Atlanta was WR Julio Jones. It's no secret that Jones makes the Falcons a much more dangerous team. Following a strong opening-day performance against Seattle, Jones missed two games and struggled through two others with a hamstring injury. It was part of the reason why the Falcons started 0-5, However, he caught passes against the Vikings for 137 yards and two TDs. With Jones sidelined or ineffective early on, Calvin Ridley leads the team with 35 catches and five TDs. Fellow WR Gage has 25 catches and TE Hurst has 17 catches with three TDs.

Neither the Lions (28.6 PPG) nor the Falcons (30.7 PPG) play much defense, so this game will be decided by which team plays the better offensive game. My bet says that will be Atlanta, as with Jones back, Ryan has WAY more receiving 'weapons' than Stafford and this contest will NOT be decided by either team's running game. The Lions are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings with the Falcons plus getting that "first win of the season," should let the Falcons play with confidence. Atlanta knows it is not making the playoffs this season but being competitive the rest of the way is a reasonable goal. However, losing at home to the Lions would upset the apple cart. The 'apples stay in the cart' for at least one more game.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFL Total of the Month is on Buf/NYJ Over at 1:00 ET.

The New York Jets are the only remaining winless NFL team as they welcome the Buffalo Bills to MetLife Stadium for a Week 7 contest on Sunday. The Jets are last in the NFL with 75 points scored (every other NFL team has scored at least 100), which is an average of 12.5 per game. The Jets are also one of EIGHT teams allowing 30-plus points per game (30.8), meaning they are losing by an average of 18.3 PPG. It should not come as a shock that the Jets are also 0-6 ATS. Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, it seemed like the perfect  opportunity for someone other than the Patriots to win the AFC East. Why not the Bills?

Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen was part of the 2017 NFL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round (he was selected 7th overall). He had not been a prolific passer in his first two seasons but he's a real leader and he has produced. Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen has made excellent strides and became just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. He was terrific in Buffalo's 4-0 start, completing 70.9 percent of his passes, while averaging 331.5 YPG through the air with 12 TDs and just one INT. However, Buffalo has lost back-to-back games, 42-26 at Tennessee and then 26-17 at home to KC this past Monday night. Buffalo's D (allowing 28.0 PPG on the season) sure didn't help but Allen has really regressed in the two losses, completing just 58.8 percent, while averaging only 192.5 YPG passing with four TDs and three INTs.

It's really hard to make much of a case for the Jets winning this game (or any upcoming game, either), so I won't try. Sam Darnold suffered an AC joint sprain of his passing shoulder on Oct 1 against the Denver Broncos and Joe Flacco has started the past two games, a span in which the Jets have scored 10 total points. Flacco has completed just 50.6 percent of his passes in his two starts, throwing for 381 yards with one TD and one INT. His QB rating was 82.3 in a 30-10 home loss to Arizona and then a pathetic 50.0 in last Sunday's 24-0 shutout loss in Miami. Sam Darnold (shoulder) returned to practice Wednesday as a limited participant and took the bulk of the first-team repetitions. Adam Gase has yet to name Darnold as Sunday's starter but that's the likely scenario. As for Gase, he's wearing out his welcome very quickly in East Rutherford. Gase led Miami to a 10-6 record and a wild card spot in his first season (2016) but was fired after 6-10 and 7-9 seasons. You tell me why the Jets quickly signed him as their head coach but after a 7-9 record last season, this year's 0-6 start has tongues 'wagging.'

These teams met in Week 1 at Buffalo and the Bills won 27-17. The over/under in that game was 39.5 and the over was my "Featured" Sunday total of Week. The total is almost six points higher here but I'm still Goin' Over and here's why. The Bills really NEED a win here to 'stop the bleeding,' as they don't want to see their 4-0 start turn into a 4-3 record after seven games. The Dolphins are 3-3 but on a "bye week" and the Pats are 2-3 and at home to the 49ers. No reason at all for Allen not to regain his form against the Jets "D" and especially if Darnold is back, the Jets should be able to move the ball (and score!) against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 30.2 PPG over its last five games. The total is a FG higher than I had hoped for but adjustments have been made due to the league's overall high scoring so far. Buffalo averaged 30.8 PPG in its 4-0 start and I see them surpassing that average here, which should lead to this game flying over the total.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the Dal Cowboys at 8:15 ET.

The Dallas Cowboys opened NFL 2020 with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owned just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. As Dallas gets set to welcome the Arizona Cardinals to "Jerry's House" for a MNF game which wraps up Week 6, one could say truthfully, that the Cowboys sit atop the NFC East. However, a closer look reveals that the Cowboys have attained their "high perch" only because the other three teams in the division are a combined 3-14-1! Dallas is just 2-3 and more notably, 0-5 ATS (only the 'minor league' Jets are worse, going 0-6 SU & ATS!).

The Arizona Cardinals visit Arlington at 3-2 but reside in one the NFL's toughest (meaning best) divisions. Seattle is atop the NFC West at 5-0, the Rams are 4-2 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 3-3. The Cards are led by former Heisman-winner Kyler Murray, who is completing 69.6% for 1,299 with eight TDs but also six INTs (QB rating of 90.9). Murray also makes plays "with his legs," rushing for 296 yards (on 7.2 YPC) with four TDs. Kenyon Drake is the team's top RB with 314 yards but averages only 3.7 YPC. With Murray's help, Arizona is rushing for 141.0 YPG, an excellent number. Future HOF Larry Fitzgerald has 28 catches but he's no longer a playmaker, averaging just 6.8 YPC. DeAndre Hopkins is now 'the big dog' of the receiving corps, with 45 catches and three TDs. A greatly improved defense may be the biggest storyline in 2020 for Arizona, as the Cards ranked last in the NFL in 2019, allowing 402.0 YPG. However, the Cards have cut that figure to 346.6 YPG and more importantly, are allowing 20.4 PPG, after allowing 27.6 PPG in 2019.

This game is when the Cowboys formally begin life without QB Dak Prescott, whose season is over after he sustained a compound fracture and dislocation of his right ankle during last Sunday's game against the NY Giants. Prescott had passed for an NFL-leading 1,856 yards and was the driving force in making the Cowboys No. 1 in total offense (488.0 YPG), while ranking third in scoring (32.6 PPG) through Week 5. Stepping in will be veteran Andy Dalton (more on him in a bit). Zeke has 364 yards rushing and five TDs but is averaging only 4.1 YPC. WR Amari Cooper has 39 catches but averages just 10.9 YPC and has just one TD reception. However, Dalton also has three more VERY good options. Rookie WR CeeDee Lamb has 29 catches (14.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and fellow WR Gallup has 17 catches (20.5 YPC ab]nd one TD). Then there is TE Schultz, who has 19 receptions (11.8 YPC / 2 TDs). Defense HAS been a big problem and why the Cowboys are 0-5 ATS. No "Doomsday Defense" these days, as the team is allowing 404.4 YPG (29th through Week 5), while allowing 36.0 PPG (32nd of 32 teams!).

Murray has proven he can play at this level but the Arizona running game doesn't give him much cover. Take away Murray's 296 rushing yards on 7.2 YPC and Arizona RBs have contributed just 409 yards (that's 81.8 YPG) on 3.8 YPC. Making 'life' more difficult for the Cards here, is that they are playing on the road for the THIRD consecutive week. Getting back to Dalton, I expect him to "fit right in" with this talented offense. He was  9 of 12 for 111 yards in relief last week and I believe will THRIVE. He got a "bad rap" in Cincy. He took the Bengals to the playoffs in each of his first four seasons and had the team at 10-3 when his 2015 season ended due to an injury. Yes, Cincy lost in the wild card round in each of those five consecutive postseason appearances (Dalton was 0-4 with just one TD pass and six INTs) but c'mon. When he arrived in Cincy as a rookie in 2011, the franchise had missed the playoffs in 18 of the previous 20 seasons, winning for games or less in EIGHT of those seasons, including going 4-12 the year before he got there. Dalton turned things around to 9-7 as a rookie and then led the Bengals to 10-plus wins the next FOUR seasons. Is Dalton as talented as Prescott, no. However, don't be surprised if the Cowboys win seven or eight of their final 11 games with him starting. For tonight, Dallas wins impressively.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the SF 49ers at 8:20 ET.

The LA Rams went 13-3 and represented the NFC at the Super Bowl in the 2018 season (lost to the Pats) but it was the SF 49ers who went 13-3 last season and made the Super Bowl, only to lose to the Chiefs. The Rams used a two-game sweep over its California rival to capture the NFC West in 2018 and the 49ers "returned the favor" with a two-game sweep of the season series in 2019. The teams meet on SNF in Week 6 at Levi's Stadium with the Rams off to a 4-1 start, while the 49ers check in at just 2-3. Seattle sits atop the NFC West at 5-0 and even the Arizona Cards have 'thrown their hat in the ring,' by opening 3-2.

LA's Jared Goff has started strong, completing 71.7% for 1,372 yards with eight TDs and three INTs (QB rating of 108.8). He has two talented WRs in Kupp (28 catches / 2 TDs) and Woods (23 catches / 2 TDs) plus TE Higbee has 15 catches and a team high three TD grabs. LA sure doesn't miss RB Gurley, as the team's two-headed RB tandem of Henderson (260 yards) and Brown (213 yards) has the Rams averaging 139.6 YPG on the ground (7th), well above the 93.7 YPG (26th) the team averaged last season. The LA defense is also improved , allowing 18.0 PPG, down from 22.8 PPG last season.

The 49ers rode the excellent play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo (69.1% for 3,978 yards with 27 TDs and 13 INTs / 102.0 QB rating), the NFC's best running game (144.1 YPG) and the NFC's stingiest defense (281.0 YPG) all the way to the Super Bowl. However, injuries have plagued them all season, on both sides of the ball. Garoppolo was completing 67.3% of his passes (4 TDs / 0 INTs) when he got hurt in Week 2. He returned last week but with the Miami Dolphins up 30-7 at halftime (Niners would lose 43-17), 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan pulled him during the half (concerned for his health). RB Raheem Mostert also returned and while the 49ers were embarrassed at home by Miami, Mostert ran for 90 yards on 11 carries (he has 238 yards on 7.0 YPC on the season). TE Kittle has been back the last two games and while he had just four catches in the rout, he had 15 catches the previous week vs Philly. WR Bourne has 15 catches in playing all five games (15.1 YPC) but the 49ers need WR Samuel to return to his rookie form. Is this the week? The defense has had a drop-off (no Bosa is HUGE) but even after last week's debacle, check in allowing 22.8 PPG on 323.0 YPG (not terrible numbers, by any stretch).

Here's the bottom line. With Seattle at 5-0 (is on a bye week) and the Rams at 4-1, the last-place 49ers would fall to 2-4 with a loss in this one, with the Rams moving to 5-1. After going 7-1 SU at home last season, the 49ers  are 0-3 at home so far in 2020 and this marks their THIRD straight home game. Talk about a "must win," if San Francisco has ANY designs on making the playoffs this season. Home dog 'barks' LOUDLY in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the TB Bucs at 4:25 ET.

It's a 'Battle of the Bays' on Sunday from Raymond James Stadium, as well as a showdown between two of this era's greatest QBs, Rodgers and Brady. The Green Bay Packers are 4-0 (also 4-0 ATS) and come off a bye week to meet the 3-2 Tampa Bay Bucs, who struggled to finish off their drives in a 20-19 Thursday Week 5 loss at Chicago. Those surprising Bears are 4-1 and right behind the Packers in the NFC North, while Tampa Bay is in a three-way tie for first in the NFC South with New Orleans and Carolina.

The Packers got good news this week, as their No. 1 WR Davante Adams will return for Sunday's game. Adams has sat out Green Bay's last two games with a hamstring injury, but had caught 17 passes for 192 yards with two TDs before sustaining his injury in a 42-21 rout of Detroit back on Sep 21. Adams has averaged 86 catches per season the last four years, while catching 40 TD passes. Getting Adams back is truly great news but with or without Adams, the Packers have had some start to the season. They are averaging a league-high 38.0 PPG, while ranking second in total offense (454.3 YPG), fourth in rushing (150.8 YPG) and fifth in passing (303.5 YPG). It's hard to argue against Brady being the G.O.A.T. but Rodgers is a special QB and in 2020 he's completed 70.5% for 1,214 yards with 13 TDs and not a single INT in 139 attempts. His QB rating of 128.4 is topped by only Russell Wilson's 129.8 RB Aaron Jones is having a terrific season, rushing for 374 yards (5.8 YPC) with four TDs, while catching 15 passes for two more TDs. Green Bay's defense has been pretty mediocre in allowing 25.3 PPG but when one's offense is averaging 38.0 PPG, it's good enough for the team to have an average margin of victory of 12.7 points (now wonder the Packers are 4-0 ATS).

The Bucs signed Brady to a two-year, $50 million contract in fully guaranteed money, despite the fact that he turned 43 in August. I guess that's the going rate for a six-time Super Bowl-winning QB. The biggest post-game talk in Tampa Bay's loss in Chicago was that Brady appeared to forget the downs on his team's last unsuccessful series, Not sure if that was the case or not but things went awry for him and the offense well before then. The Bucs committed 11 penalties and its OL not only allowed Brady to be sacked three times but he was pressured on a "way too high" percentage of his 41 passes. The Buccaneers scored 10 points in the first quarter, and couldn't match that for the game's remainder. I mentioned the team's inability to finish off drives at the top and that's reinforced by Tampa Bay settling for four FGs, three from inside of 40 yards. Brady's completed 64.3 % of his passes for 1,375 yards with 12 TDs and four INTs and has looked better than he did in his last couple of regular seasons with the Pats. RB Ronald Jones may not be quite as good as Green Bay's Aaron, but he has 359 rushing yards (4.9 YPC) and 15 catches, as well. WR Mike Evans has become Brady's favorite target, catching 22 passes with five TDs. Fellow WR Miller has 15 catches and averages a team-best 16.7 YPC. TE Howard (11 catches with two TDs) is sidelined but Gronk has 10 of his 12 catches this season in the last three games. Tampa's defense is allowing just 2898.2 YPG (second-best in the NFL), which is just over 80 yards less than last season's 'stop unit.' The Bucs allowed 27.8 PPG last season but that's down to a more respectable 22.4 PPG allowed in this VERY high-scoring season.

One CAN'T ignore that Green Bay's 4-0 SU and ATS mark has come against four opponents whose combined record is 5-15. Is it also noteworthy that Green Bay has failed to cover FOUR of its last five games when  returning from bye? I'm not so sure about that but I am sure that this is a HUGE game for the Bucs, which happens to be the team's LONE home game in a four-game span. It's possible that this could be the last regular-season meeting between Rodgers and Brady (they've met just TWICE before, with each winning once) and I'm backing the G.O.A.T.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on the Pit Steelers at 1:00 ET.

AFC North contests between the Browns and Steelers have always been heated given the teams' proximity and history but this first of two meetings here in 2020 draws extra meaning because the Browns have opened 4-1 for the first time since 1994 and the 4-0 Steelers are one of just FOUR unbeaten NFL teams. The QB matchup has more than a little intrigue as well, with some believing that Baker Mayfield (at 25) is blossoming into the franchise QB the Browns have been seeking for years. On the Pittsburgh side, the 38-year-old Ben Roethlisberger has bounced back from elbow surgery a year ago to post a QB rating of 110.4 through four games, which would be teh highest for a career that began back in 2004 (note: Baker was NINE years old in 2004!). It's also  a game between the NFL top rushing offense (Cleveland is averaging an NFL-best 188.4 YPG)  going up against the NFL stingiest rush defense (Pittsburgh is allowing 64.0 YPG on the ground.

The Cleveland defense is clearly the team's Achilles' heel, allowing 29.8 PPG, which is a TD and two-point conversion higher than what Pittsburgh allows (21.8 PPG). However, since losing in Week 1 by the score of 38-6 to the Ravens, the Cleveland offense has been terrific, averaging 37.5 PPG. The Browns have scored at least 30 points in each of their four straight wins, the first time they have reached that total in four straight games since 1968 (can you say Leroy Kelly and Bill Nelson?). Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). However, since that Week 1 loss, Mayfield has turned into more of a "game-manager." He's completing 61.2% for 976 yards with nine TDs and four INTs. Those certainly aren't eye-popping numbers but they represent the efficiency and dependability that had been missing from Cleveland's QB position for what seemed like an eternity. Whether it's Hunt (347 yards on 5.0 YPC with 3 TDs / 11 catches with three TDs) or Chubb (335 yards on 5.9 YPC with 4 TDs). WRs OBJ (21 catches with three TDs) and Landry (21 catches but zero TDs) are quality targets but late Thursday afternoon it was announced that OBJ was sent home with an unexplained illness.

Big Ben is completing 69.9% for 1,016 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT (see above for his QB rating). RB Snell filled in for a less-than-100 percent James Connor in Week 1 with 113 yards but Connor then topped 100 yards rushing in consecutive games (Weeks 2 and 3) for the first time since the first half of 2018 (224 yards on 5.6 YPC with two TDs). However, he did have just 44 rushing yards with one TD in last week's win. WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (21 catches / 3 TDs) and Diontae Johnson (15 catches / 1 TD) are part of a young and diverse pass-catching group that saw rookie which also features rookie Chase Claypool, who had  a breakout game vs the Eagles last Sunday. The Notre Dame product caught SEVEN passes for 110 yards with three TDs plus added a rushing tD. He now has 13 catches on the season, averaging 20.1 YPC with four receiving TDs. I noted Pittsburgh's rush D at the top but will add here that the Steelers rank third in the league in total defense, allowing 301.5 PPG.

I don't know the status of OBJ but Cleveland is also dealing with the following. Mayfield came out of last weekend's 32-23 win over Indianapolis with tender ribs and was limited in practice Wednesday, saying he was "sore ... but that is why we have the rest of the week until game day." In addition to Mayfield, safeties Ronnie Harrison (concussion) and Karl Joseph (hamstring) and receiver Jarvis Landry (hips/ribs) were out Wednesday, although head coach Kevin Stefanski said he expects Landry to return to practice this week. RB Kareem Hunt (thigh), who has been carrying the load with Nick Chubb hurt, was limited Wednesday.

This matchup surely qualifies as a rivalry but it sure is a ONE-SIDED one. Here's the rub. The Steelers have dominated this series dating back to 2004 (Big Ben's rookie year) with a 27-4-1 SU record (not much of an impost in this one!). Pittsburgh was a perfect 3-0 ATS in 2019 in home games inside the NFC North, while the Browns are a 'money-burning' 11-20 ATS in their last 31 games against their NFC foes. That includes a blowout loss at Baltimore in Week 1 and a win but non-cover at home vs the Bengals in Week 2. Lay the MORE than reasonable price!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "Featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Was/NYG Over at 1:00 ET.

The 0-5 New York Giants are one of just THREE remaining winless NFL teams as the 2020 season moves into Week 6. The other two are the New York Jets (the Giants co-tenants of MetLife Stadium) and the Atlanta Falcons, who fired coach Dan Quinn at the beginning of the week. While 0-5 is 0-5, it should be noted that while the Falcons and Jets are a combined 1-9 ATS, the Giants have gone 3-2. Three of the Giants' losses have come by single digits, including a 37-34 road setback last week in Dallas against the Cowboys. First-year head coach Joe Judge said he is encouraged by his team's progress. "That's all that really matters, to be honest with you, the progress that we're making right now," Judge said after his team's latest loss. "The record will come in time. Obviously, we're not happy about the losses, that's not what we do here. But I've seen a lot of progress on all fronts and all units. We have to keep making consistent progress to keep being a better team as the year goes."

It's fair to say it's "put up or shut up" time for the Giants this Sunday, as 1-4 Washington visits East Rutherford, NJ. Washington fell behind the Eagles 17-0 at home in Week 1 but rallied to score the game's final 27 points in a 27-17 win over the defending NFC East champs. However, very little has gone right for the team since then, as Washington has lost FOUR in a row (0-3-1 ATS) since that Week 1 victory, allowing at each 30 points in each  contest (average of 31.3 PPG). Washington has seen enough of QB Dwayne Haskins (61.0%  for 939 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTS for a QB rating of 80.3), replacing him in favor of backup Kyle Allen in last Sunday's 30-10 loss to the Raiders. Allen completed 9 of 13 passes for 74 yards and rushed for a TD before he was injured on a scramble, which created an opportunity for Alex Smith to take the field for the first time since his gruesome leg injury in 2018. However, Washington is expected to turn back to Allen against the Giants after he reportedly was cleared by doctors to return. This would be his 15th career start, including 13 with the Carolina Panthers over the previous two seasons (he's 6-8 as an NFL starter). Allen can't expect much help from a running game that averages just 101.8 YPG on 3.5 YPC but RBs McKissic (17 catches) and Gibson (145 catches) have both done a nice job as receivers. Washington's lone WR of note is second-year player McLaurin, who has 29 catches, averaging 15.8 YPC.

With Barkley out for the season, the Giants know all about the lack of a running game, as New York ranks dead-last in the NFL by averaging a pathetic 79.0 YPG on the ground (3.8 YPC). The Giants are sticking with second-year QB Daniel Jones, who showed flashes of potential in 2019. He ended the season having completed 61.9% for 3,027 yards with 24 TDs and just 12 INTs. He's completing 61.0% this year for 1,111 yards (that's on pace for 3,5000 yards on the season) but he has just two TD passes and five INTs. QB rating of 70.6 is down from his rookie season, when he posted an 87.7 rating. Second-year WR Slayton has 23 catches (15.9 YPC / 2 TDs) and TE Engram has 18 catches. A huge disappointment so far is Golden Tate, who has a modest 18 catches plus is averaging only 8.1 YPC (Tate had 90-plus catches with Seattle for four straight seasons (2014-17).

The Giants are third-to-last in the league in averaging only 282.4 YPG, while Washington is dead last with 263.0 YPG. So why go over? Neither team can run the ball and I expect both QBs to have solid games, maybe even their best games this season to-date. As has been widely reported, scoring has never been higher (since the 1970 merger) and linemakers have adjusted the over/under numbers up. However, as of Friday at 12 noon ET, this game has the lowest posted total of any Week 6 game. The Giants should 'smell' the chance for a "W" and I won't be even a little surprised if they are the FIFTH straight team to score 30-plus points on Washington, meaning we won't need too much help from Washington for this game to go over. That's the bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic is on the LA Chargers at 8:15 ET.

The 1-3 LA Chargers are in New Orleans for a MNF contest against the 2-2 Saints. The Chargers drafted Philip Rivers back in 2004 and he took over as the team's starting QB in 2006 and started EVERY game for the team over the last 14 seasons. However, the Chargers only made the playoffs in TWO of the previous 10 seasons. He left via free agency with the Chargers drafting Oregon QB Justin Herbert with the sixth pick of the 1st round in the 2020 draft as his eventual replacement. Tyrod Taylor started in Week 1, a game the Chargers won 16-13 at Cincinnati. However, a team doctor accidentally punctured one of the Taylor's lungs, while attempting to administer a shot to Tyrod Taylor's ribs. Taylor has been sidelined ever since and while the Chargers have lost three in a row, don't blame Herbert. He's completing 72.0% for 931 yards in his three starts, with five TDs, three INTs and a QB rating of 102.2 (more later).

Herbert was just 6 years old when Drew Brees left his final game for the Chargers with a career-threatening shoulder injury. A decade-and-a-half later, they're set to be on opposite sidelines on MNF. Brees has broken about every passing record that matters since joining New Orleans in 2006. However, while Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. He enters this game completing 71.3% of his passes for 1,006 yards with eight TDs and two INTs for a 108.7 QB rating.

The Chargers will NOT have RB Austin Ekeler for this game due to a hamstring injury and that's NOT good news. He's run for 248 yards (5.1 YPC) and has 17 catches. UCLA rookie Joshua Kelley gets the start and he's run for 174 yards, averaging only 3.3 YPC. Herbert does have excellent receivers, headlined by Keenan Allen, who has 32 catches (the last three seasons, Allen has had 102, 97 and 104 catches with six TDs receptions in each season). Mike Williams may be back for this one and that would be great news. He had 49 catches (20.4 YPC) last season and 43 catches with 10 TDs in 2018. TE Henry has 18 catches, adding to Herbert's 'weapons.'

Speaking of WRs, the Saints are still listing Michael Thomas as questionable with a groin injury that has kept him out the last three games. Thomas caught 149 passes in 2019, an NFL record for the most in a single season. RB Alvin Kamara has been terrific, rushing for 236 yards with four TDs and grabbing a team-high 30 receptions for three TDs. Murray is an excellent backup, rushing for 184 yards with two TDs. Brees needs WRs Smith (14 catches / 2 TDs) and Sanders (14 catches / 2 TDs) to contribute more, if Thomas is not back.

Comparing the defenses shows that while the Chargers are allowing 373.8 YPG to the Saints' 334.3 YPG, LA is holding opponents to 23.8 PPG, while New Orleans is allowing 30.8 PPG (that's a full TD difference!). Herbert passed for over 300 yards in his first two starts and while he had 290 last week, he completed 20 of 25 passes with three TDs and one INT, giving him a QB rating of 137.9. Yes, the Chargers have lost three straight but they took defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City to OT and only a dropped lateral on the final play deprived them of a golden opportunity to pull out a Week 3 win over Carolina. Last week, they led Brady and the Bucs 24-7, before losing 38-31. Meanwhile, the Saints fell behind 14-0 early at Detroit, before scoring TDs on FIVE consecutive drives. Those things happen when a team is playing the sad-sack Lions, who have lost 12 of their last 13 games, going 3-10 ATS. The Chargers will battle you all the way and are 2-0 ATS as a road dog already this season. Take the big points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Min Vikings at 8:15 ET.

The Minnesota Vikings went 10-6 last season and as the NFC's No. 6 seed, played at New Orleans (No. 3 seed with a 13-3 record) and upset the Saints, 26-20 in OT. Seattle went 11-5 last season and captured the NFC's No. 5 seed and drew the NFC East champion Eagles, who they beat 17-9. Both teams then lost road games at San Francisco and Green Bay, respectively. These same two teams meet tonight in Seattle for SNF on NBC but their respective 2020 seasons have begun quite differently. The Vikings opened 0-3 before winning their first game of the season last Sunday 31-23 at Houston, which has opened 0-4. Meanwhile, Seattle has opened 4-0 SU and ATS. 

Minnesota head coach Mike Zimmer has been known for his defense but this year's Vikings are allowing 31.3 PPG on 426.5 YPG. QB Kirk Cousins entered the current season off two excellent seasons, completing 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs (99.7 QB rating) in 2018 and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and six INTs (107.4 rating) last season. He played OK vs Green Bay in Week 1 (19 of 25 for 259 yards with two TDs and one INT / 118.6 QB rating) but that performance was dwarfed by Aaron Rodgers' 364 passing yards with four TDs in a 43-34 Green Bay win. Cousins struggled in Weeks 2 and 3 with FIVE interceptions but bounced back in the team's road win at Houston last Sunday, going 16 of 22 for 260 yards with one TD and zero INTs (127.1 rating). RB Dalvin Cook ran for just 113 yards in Minnesota's 0-2 SU and ATS start but for 311 yards (6.4 YPC) with three TDs in the Vikings' last two games (team is 2-0 ATS). Stefon Diggs has shuffled off to Buffalo but veteran Adam Thielen has 20 catches *(14.2 YPC) with four TDs and is loving the chance to mentor LSU rookie Jefferson, who has 15 catches, averaging 21.8 YPC. TE Rudolph, who has averaged 58 catches the last five years while catching 40 TDs, is off to a slow start (eight catches and one TD).

2020 has opened as "The Year of the QB" and it's hard to find anyone playing better than Seattle's Russell Wilson. He's completed 75.2% for 1,285 with 16 TDs and just two INTs (136.7 QB rating leads the NFL). He's tied Peyton Manning's record with 16 TD passes in the first four games and already has 16 completions of more than 20 yards and is averaging 9.4 YPA. RB Carson ran for just 21 yards in Week 1 but caught six passes with two going for TDs. The last three games, he's run for a solid 216 yards on 6.3 YPC. WRs Lockett (26 catches / 4 TDs) and Metcalf (16 catches / 25.2 YPC / 3 TDs) are a dynamic duo plus TE Olsen has 14 catches (one TD) and RB Carson 15 catches with three TDs. The issue has been Seattle's defense, which has allowed a league-high (meaning worst!) 476.8 YPG. The Seahawks have allowed 27.3 PPG, a figure which would likely be higher if their offense wasn't playing so well, which has kept opposing offenses off the field.

Seattle has a bye next week and would love nothing more than to head into that week off at 5-0. However, the history books tell us Seattle has NEVER started a season 5-0. As for the Vikings, a closer look at their season reveals that despite the team's 1-3 start, there's some optimism lying beneath the surface. Minnesota has been at its best inside the red zone booth offensively and defensively. The offense is tied for eighth in the NFL in goal-to-go TD rate (87.5%) and fifth in inside-the-20 TD rate (76.9%). The defense is seventh in goal-to-go TD rate (58.3%) and second in inside-the-20 TD rate (41.2%).

These teams are meeting for the FIFTH since 2015 (high number for non-division opponents), including last season in Seattle, when the Seahawks won 37-30 but were just a three-point favorite, Here, Minnesota gets a full TD and they'll get a break as CenturyLink Field (arguably the NFL's toughest home venue) will be silent outside of what gets piped through the stadium speaker system. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My Oddsmaker's Error is on the Atl Falcons at 1:00 ET.

The Panthers opened the season with back-to-back losses plus saw the team's MVP, RB Christian McCaffrey, go down with an injury during Week 2's loss. However, Teddy Bridgewater is showing promise as a long-term replacement for Cam Newton at QB, plus RB Mike Davis (in his 7th season) is flourishing as a short-term substitute for McCaffrey. The Panthers are 2-0 without McCaffrey and travel to Atlanta on Sunday to face the winless Falcons (0-4). Atlanta couldn't handle Russell Wilson in Week (no other team has either) but then blew HUGE leads in losing back-to-back games at Dallas and home to the Bears. The Falcons then lost this past Monday night 30-16 in Green Bay, as Rodgers ripped them for four TD passes..

Are the Panthers emerging as a surprise contender in the NFC South? A loss here would negate that theory. Bridgewater has completed 73.1% of his passes for 1,147 yards but has a modest four TD passes (also three INTs). He went 5-0 as a starter in New Orleans last season when Brees missed time and enters this game 18-8 as starting QB since 2015. mike Davis has done little in his first six NFL seasons but he's started the last two weeks, gaining 130 yards on 29 carries (4.5 YPC).Bridgewater has a trio of WRs that are not bad at all, with free agent pickup Robby Anderson's 28 catches being among the leaders through four weeks, plus Moore (18 catches / 16.0 YPC) and Samuel (14 catches) also contributing. The defense allowed 65 points in opening 0-2 but has allowed just 37 points in the team's back-to-back wins.

Matt Ryan, who somehow earned the nickname "Matty Ice," despite winning NOTHING, can still throw the ball. He's passed for 1,246 yards through four games, with seven TDs and just two INTs. He's got plenty of receivers, including Julio Jones, who is one of the best when healthy. He missed the second half against Green Bay after aggravating a hamstring injury that caused him to miss the previous week against Chicago. He has 15 catches in 2 1/2 games and has a history of finding a way to play games after missing practice time because of injuries. Fellow WRs Ridley (21 catches / 16.6 YPC / 4 TDs) and Gage (19 catches) are excellent options, as is TE Hurst (13 catches / 2 TDs). Todd Gurley was a key FA pickup but so far has been average (254 rushing yards on 3.9 YPC) but does have four TDs. The defense is another story, ranking 31st (of 32 teams) in points allowed (34.5 per) and total yards (448.3 YPG).

The Falcons won their last four games last season to save head coach Dan Quinn's job but after an 0-4 start in 2020, Quinn's job status is again the subject of weekly speculation. It could be "win or else" here for Quinn, considering the Falcons have owned this series over the past four seasons, going 7-1 SU & ATS. That includes 29-3 and 40-20 victories a year ago. Carolina is just 8-17 ATS (32%) against NFC South opponents its last 25. The line says WIN and COVER for Atlanta and that's my bet!

Good luck...Larry 

My 10* AFC Game of the Month is on the Hou Texans at 1:00 ET.

The Houston Texans win the AFC South with a 10-16 record last season, the team's FOURTH division title in a  five-year span. Houston would edge Buffalo 23-20 (OT) in the wild card round in 2019 and then went to KC, where it took a 24-0 lead over the Chiefs, before getting run over by Patrick Mahomes and Co. KC would score the game's next 41 points, on their way to a 51-31. I realize that Bill O'Brien was the team's head coach in each of the team's four division-winning seasons but NEVER warmed to him as a head coach. I was really surprised that following that loss to the Chiefs, the Texans appointed O'Brien to the role of general manager. Houston had gone the entire 2019 season with the position vacant. During the offseason, O'Brien traded DeAndre Hopkins (the team's best receiver) to the Arizona Cardinals, a move that was heavily criticized. Star defensive end J.J. Watt wouldn't address reports that he got into a verbal altercation with O'Brien in practice two weeks ago but he did say that he thought a team with Deshaun Watson at quarterback needed a change after the 0-4 start. O'Brien was fired by the Texans on October 5, 2020. Team owner Cal McNair then made Romeo Crennel the team's interim coach for the rest of this season. Crennel has been an assistant for O'Brien since 2014 and has coached both the Browns and the Chiefs in an NFL and college career spanning 50 years (more on him later).

Visiting Houston on Sunday will be the 1-3 Jacksonville Jaguars. QB Gardner Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles as a rookie last season and showed plenty of promise. He has opened his sophomore season completing 72.1 percent for 1,138 yards with eight TDs and four INTs (101.2 QB rating). The Jags have a shaky OL with Minshew being sacked 13 times. He also gets little help from his running game, which is averaging just 104.3 YPG. The team's best WR, DJ Chark (73 catches and 8 TDS as a rookie), returned in Week 4, after missing Week 3's game. He had EIGHT catches last Sunday, giving him 15 (in three games), averaging 13.6 YPC with three TDs (two came last week). WRs Cole (19 catches / 10.2 YPC / 2 TDs) and Shenault (16 catches / 11.9 YPC / one TD) are decent 'helpers.' The Jacksonville D is allowing 399.5 YPG and also 29.3 PPG (not good).

Watson signed a HUGE extension before the season and the Texans didn't expect an 0-4 starts. Watson is completing 65.6% for 1,092 yards with six TDs and three INTs (solid but NOT what Houston needs). He's also added very little 'with his legs,' rushing for only 58 yards (3.4 YPC) without a TD. The overall running game is a mess, as David Johnson looked good in Week 1 (77 yards on 11 carries) but he's gained only 120 yards the last three games on 40 attempts (3.0 YPC). Houston misses Hopkins but Fuller (18 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs) is excellent plus veterans Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks have been excellent receivers in this league. TE Akins (14 catches with one TD), is MORE than adequate. The defense allows 393. YPG and 31.5 PPG. Do I need to add a comment?

Getting back to Crennel, his head coaching record in the NFL is 'ugly.' He is 28-55 (.337) in five-plus seasons with the Browns and Chiefs but he's had an excellent history as an assistant, being part of coaching staffs that won FIVE Super Bowl titles. Parcells and Belichick may have had something to do with that. He's well-liked and while he is NOT the long-term solution for Houston, I say he's just perfect for this underachieving team, right now. Let me note that Houston may be 0-4 but the Texans opened the season with KC (4-0), Baltimore (3-1) and Pittsburgh (3-0). Of course, there's NO excuse for last week's loss to the previously winless Vikings. However, Minnesota was a playoff team in 2019. 

Anyway, I'm expecting a great effort from Houston and for the Jaguars to play the perfect foil. It seems like light years ago that the Jags led the Pats in New England in the AFC championship game in the mid-fourth quarter, before falling 24-20. However, that was actually the 2017 season, The Jags opened 3-1 in 2018 but then 'imploded,' going 2-10 the rest of the way. A 6-10 season followed in 2019 and the team's 1-3 start this season means the Jags are 9-23 since that 3-1 start in 2018, including 4-13 on the road. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* "Featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Phi/Pit Over at 1:00 ET.

Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers got an unexpected "bye week" last Sunday, with the Titans fighting a COVID-19 outbreak. That game's been rescheduled for Oct 25 and the 3-0 Steelers get set to welcome cross-state rival the Philadelphia Eagles to Heinz Field, as one of the NFL's SIX remaining unbeaten teams. The Eagles FINALLY got into the win column last Sunday night at San Francisco but at 1-2-1 sit atop the NFL's worst division, the NFC East (Dallas and Washington are 1-3 and the NY Giants are 0-4).

I took the Eagles last Sunday night, as I'm not ready just yet to "give up" on Carson Wentz. He entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of his last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday with the lowest passer rating in the NFL among starting QBs (66.9) and has already thrown SEVEN interceptions. Philly has key injuries to WRs Jeffrey (out) and Jackson (questionable) but still has a terrific TE in Ertz (19 catches, to lead the team). WR Ward has stepped up with 18 catches and more importantly, RB Miles Sanders has returned to rush for 236 yards (4.6 YPC) and catch nine passes in the last three games (he missed Week 1 with an injury). He's an important cog, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). The Philly defense may lead the league in sacks (17) but it's allowing 26.8 PPG.

Pittsburgh has 15 sacks (in just three games) and its defense is No. 2 in yards allowed (290.0 per) and ranks fifth in points allowed (19.3 per). The 38-year-old Roethlisberger is playing with a surgically repaired right elbow and "looking good!" He's completing 67.0% for 777 yards with seven TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 105.2). RB Snell filled in for a less-than-100 percent James Connor in Week 1 with 113 yards but Connor has topped 100 yards rushing in consecutive games for the first time since the first half of 2018 (224 yards on 5.6 YPC with two TDs). WRs JuJu Smith-Shuster (17 catches / 3 TDs) and Diontae Johnson (14 catches / 1 TD) are part of a young and diverse pass-catching group, which also features Claypool, who has just six catches but is averaging 25.2 YPC (one TD).

You may find this hard to believe (I sure did) but if Pittsburgh wins, the Steelers will be 4-0 for the first time in 41 years! I don't think Big Ben and Co. will have much trouble at all with Philly's so-so defense and again, I'm NOT giving up on Wentz. He's scrambling more this season, gaining 102 yards on 16 carries in the past two games and has run for a TD in each of the past three weeks. You may have heard that NFL games have averaged a combined 51.3 through the first four weeks of a season, the highest since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger. This total is well below the average for Week 5 games and I'm Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

 My NFL 10* Thursday Night Game of the Month is on the TB Bucs at 8:20 ET.

You may just have heard that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers signed Tom Brady in the offseason hoping the six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback could help them end a 12-year playoff drought. The 43-year-old Brady saw his production dip in his 20th and final season in New England but was able to sign a two-year, fully guaranteed $50 million contract with the Bucs. He was 'off' in Tampa Bay's season-opening loss at New Orleans, as he had two badly-thrown INTs, one of which was returned for a TD in a 34-23 loss. However, he's led the Bucs to THREE straight wins since that defeat, completing 65.5% with nine TDs and just two INTs. The Bucs have averaged 32.3 PPG in their winning streak, with an average margin of victory of 13 points!

The Bucs are in Chicago Thursday night for a game with the Bears, who opened the season 3-0, before struggling badly on offense in a 19-11 Week 4 loss at home to the Colts. The game wasn't as close as the final indicates, as the Bears trailed 19-3 before scoring a TD (and added a two-point conversion) with just 1:35 left in the game. Nick Foles replaced the obviously overrated Trubisky in Week 3 vs the Falcons, rallying the Bears from a 26-10 deficit to a 30-26 win. Foles threw three TD passes in the final 6 1/2 minutes of that contest but couldn't get the Bears into the end zone last Sunday until just under two minutes to go. In fairness, the Colts do own the NFL best defense early on in NFL 2020, allowing league-lows in points (14.0 per) and total yards (236.3 per).

Brady lost his favorite target in 2020, as TE Howard was lost for the season in last week's game. However, stepping in at TE will be a familiar face to Brady, Rob Gronkowski. WR Evans has loved the acquisition of Brady, grabbing 17 receptions with five TDs. Also, Miller (15 catches / 16.7 YPC / 1 TD) and Godwin (11 catches / 13.0 YPC / 1 TD) also not exactly slouches. RB Jones is off a very good season and is rounding into form with 253 rushing yards (4.4 YPC) and 12 catches. Brady loves to use his RBs as receivers and Sean McCoy (nine catches) and Leonard Fournette (seven catches) are reaping the benefits.

Foles played a Super Bowl for the ages when he led the Eagles to a 41-33 win against the Patriots (and Brady) in Super Bowl LII. He was the game's MVP completing 28-of-43 passes for 373 yards and three touchdowns plus caught a 1-yard TD pass on the “Philly Special" trick play that ranks as one of the most famous plays in NFL history. However, Foles has NEVER reached those heights again and will likely NEVER do so again. The Bears have a modest running game and it was all but completely shut down by the Colts, who held them to 28 rushing yards on 16 carries. Other than Allen Robinson (25 catches / 13.2 YPC / 2 TDs), the Bears have no receivers of note.

Yes, the Bears opened 3-0 but those wins came over the Lions, Giants and Falcons, who have combined to go 1-11 SU. I doubt Brady is thinking "Super Bowl revenge" against Foles, but one never knows. What we do know is that when Brady overcame a 17-point deficit to beat the Los Angeles Chargers 38-31 last week, he became the NFL's all-time regular-season victories leader (222), regardless of position. In the Bears, Brady will face a team that's never beaten him, as he's 5-0 with 1,595 passing yards, 14 TD passes and just four interceptions against Chicago. All in all, the Bucs seem like a strong play as a small road favorite in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Phi Eagles at 8:20 ET.

The Philadelphia Eagles won the NFC East last season and opened the 2020 season by taking a 17-0 lead over Washington in Week 1. However, NOTHING has gone right since that time. Washington would score that game's final 27 points, as the Eagles lost 27-17 to a team that went  3-13 in 2019 and has lost both games this season since beating the Eagles by 15 and 14 points (allowed 30 and 24 points). The 49ers were in last year's Super Bowl and held a 20-10 lead over KC with under 6 1/2 minutes left in the game. However, the Chiefs 'exploded' for three TDs in just a five-minute span, for a 31-20 victory. The Niners were upset at home in Week 1 by the Arizona Cardinals 24-20, as a seven-point favorite. San Francisco has rebounded with back-to-back wins the last two Sundays 31-13 and 36-9 but those wins have come at MetLife Stadium against the pathetic Jets and Giants (a combined 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS).

Philly QB Carson Wentz entered this season having thrown just seven INTs in each of his last three seasons, while passing for 81 TDs. However, he enters Sunday with the lowest passer rating in the NFL at 63.9 and has already thrown six interceptions. RB Miles Sanders missed Week 1 but has returned to rush for 190 yards (5.0 YPC) and one TD, while catching seven passes for 48 yards. He's an important cog, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Wentz has a dynamic TE duo, Ertz (15 catches / one TD) and Goedert (13 catches / one TD). However, the Philly defense HAS to improve, as the Eagles have not forced a SINGLE turnovers on defense through 13 quarters this season (Eagles did recover a fumble on a punt return last week).

Jimmy G got hurt in Week 2 and remains out. Nick Mullens started in Week 3, completing 25 of 36 for 343 yards with one TD and zero INTs (108.9 QB rating). Top RB Mostert remains out and McKinnon gets the call again. He's gained 139 yards (6.9 YPC) with two TDs so far but had just 38 yards on 14 attempts in Week 3. The Niners have dealt with key injuries this season, including Garoppolo, TE George Kittle, CB Richard Sherman, 2019 Defensive Rookie of the Year Nick Bosa, RB Mostert and No. 1 receiver Deebo Samuel. The good news is that Kittle and Samuel will be back this week. The bad news is that TE Jordan Reed (11 catches with two TDs) joined RB Tevin Coleman on injured reserve.

"Right now we're not a very good football team," Philly head coach Doug Pederson said. "We're not very smart. We're shooting ourselves in the foot. We're leaving touchdowns on the field offensively, and we're just not executing." I'm NOT ready to give up on Wentz. Facing an 0-3 start for the first time since 1999 last Sunday, Wentz drove the Eagles 75 yards in the final three minutes. He picked up nine yards on third-and-6 to the Bengals 19 and then ran in from the seven with a head-first dive into the end zone. Elliott's extra point tied it with 21 seconds left. However, neither team could do anything in overtime. San Francisco has been a  poor home favorite, going just 7-17-1 ATS in that role its last 25 tries. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 8* NFL Week 4 Las Vegas Insider is on the LV Raiders at 4:25 ET.

The Buffalo Bills are one of seven NFL teams still unbeaten (3-0) and will travel to Las Vegas in Week 4 for a game with the 2-1 Raiders. The Bills blew a 28-3 third-quarter lead last Sunday at home against the Rams but then got 'bailed out' by a 'phantom' defensive pass-interference call that allowed Josh Allen to complete a three-yard TD pass with 15 seconds to go (Bills won 35-32). Meanwhile, the Raiders lost for the first time in 2020, falling 36-20 in New England to the Pats. 

Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. Buffalo has won its first three games in consecutive seasons for the first time since 1991-92. Most would say that QB Josh Allen has had an up-and-down start to his NFL career in 2018 and 2019 but as I've noted before, he did become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. What all will agree upon is that here in 2020, he's taken his game to another level. He's completing 71.1% for 1,038 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT (QB rating of 124.8). The acquisition of WR Stefon Diggs (formerly of the Vikings) has been HUGE. Diggs has 20 catches and two TDs plus along with returning WRs Beasley (15 catches / 15.4 YPC) and Brown (10 catches / 15.2 YPC / 2 TDs), Allen has quite a trio. A concern is Buffalo's defense, which after allowing just 16.2 PPG in 2019, has allowed 25.7 PPG after three games of 2020.

Jon Gruden is in his second stint with the Raiders, with a stop in between in Tampa Bay with the Bucs (won the Super Bowl in his first season back in the 2002 season) and a VERY successful career in the TV booth. The Raiders were just 4-12 in his first season (2018) and 7-9 last season, However, the Raiders are now playing out of Las Vegas and things are looking up, although they do play in the AFC West with the KC Chiefs. QB Derek Carr has looked VERY good through three games, completing 74.0% for 784 yards with six TDs and zero INTs in 100 attempts (QB rating of 116.4).  RB Josh Jacobs had a terrific rookie season (1,150 yards on 4.7 YPC with 7 TDs) and while his start is more modest in 2020 (252 yards on 3.7 YPC with 3 TDs), this guy is "a player!" TE Waller is Carr's top target with 20 catches (just one TD) but he's averaging only 7.9 YPC (that HAS to improve). Defense has not been a Las Vegas strength, as the Raiders are allowing 30.0 PPG on 406. YPG.

I have great respect for the Bills but the Raiders beat the Saints in their only previous game in their brand-new stadium, 34-24 back in Week 2 on MNF. Buffalo's defense allowed Miami to score 28 and the Rams to score 32 (no one counts team's win over the Jets) and Carr and the Raiders can match scores with Allen and the Bills. I'm backing the home dog, as the Bills suffer their first loss of 2020.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "featured" Sunday Total of the Week is on Bal/Was Over at 1:00 ET.

Here's part of what I wrote in taking KC over Baltimore when those two teams met last Monday night. "It's hard to say a team off a 14-2 year has something to prove this season but that's the case with the Ravens. They routed the Browns 38-6 in Week 1 and then had little trouble with the Texans in Week 2, winning 33-16. Jackson has completed 77.6% of his passes for 479 yards with four TDs, no INTS and a QB rating of 134.6. He's added 99 yards rushing but no TDs) for a running game averaging 170.5 PPG on 5.1 YPC. Three RBs are sharing carries, Edwards has 90 yards (6.4 YPC) with one TD, Ingram 84 yards (4.4 YPC) with one TD and rookie Dobbins has 70 yards (9.8 YPC) with two TDs. The Baltimore D is not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG) last season and through two games of 2020, ranked T-2 in yards allowed (305.0 YPG) and 1st in points allowed (11:0 PPG)." I closed with this. "The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games but the Chiefs will bring an 11-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (eight straight in the regular season / 3-0 playoff run last year) and while Jackson is 21-3 as a starter during the regular season, TWO of those losses have come against Kansas City. This is NOT a playoff game but it sure has that kind of atmosphere. Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason (13-2 TD/INT ratio and 106.6 QB rating), while Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason, completing 51.1% with three TDs and three INTs for a 68.3 QB rating. Take the points."

The result was a 34-20 KC win, Jackson completed just 53.6% of his passes for 97 yards and ran for 83 but with zero TDs. The Baltimore defense gave up 35 points and 29 FDs, while allowing 517 yards. Now other than playing home games in Maryland, there are few similarities between the Baltimore Ravens and the Washington Football Team. Washington finished 3-13 in 2019, the worst record in the NFC and is nothing more than a rebuilding team in 2020. Washington fell behind the Eagles 17-0 at home in Week 1 but scored the game's final 27 points. Washington had eight sacks and forced three TOs, while its scoring drives covered 45, 20, 26, 48 and 20 yards. Since that Week 1 win, Washington's allowed 30 and 34 points in losses to Arizona and Cleveland.

The Ravens entered Monday night on an 11-1 ATS run in which they have averaged 34.8 PPG. I see no way that Baltimore won't top that average in this contest, against a weak Washington defense. That means Washington won't have to contribute too much for this contest to 'go over!' That's my bet.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on the Dal Cowboys at 1:00 ET.

The Cowboys opened the 2020 season with a new head coach for the first time in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green Bay in the season) took over for Jason Garrett. He inherited what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade.  Dallas welcomes the Browns to "Jerry's House" on Sunday just 1-2, with each of its first three games being decided in the final minute. A questionable offensive PI call prevented Dallas an opportunity to kick a game-tying FG at the end of its Week 1 game at the Rams (lost 20-17) and then Dallas overcame a 39-24 deficit at home to the Falcons in Week 2, scoring the game's final 16 points inside the last five minutes of the 4thb quarter (game-winning FG in a 40-39 victory came at 0:00). Dallas then overcame a 30-15 deficit at Seattle to take a 31-30 lead, only to see Seattle score with 1:47 to go. Down 38-31, Dallas drove to Seattle's 26-yard line, when Prescott was picked off to end the game.

We ALL know the plight of the Cleveland Browns, who won just four games from 2015-17.However, Baker Mayfield threw two TD passes, Nick Chubb ran for two more scores and the Browns moved over .500 for the first time since 2014 with a 34-20 win Sunday over the Washington Football Team in Week 3. First-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has the Browns 2-1 for the first time since 2011. It's also the first time they've had a winning record since Week 14 in 2014, as Cleveland had gone 90 consecutive weeks without a winning record. As the ad once said, "Is it Real or is it Memorex?"

Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did  win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!). Mayfield has thrown for a modest 564 yards in three games (5 TDs / 2 INTs / QB rating of 91.5), as Cleveland's running game has been terrific. Chubb has 292 yards (5.7 YPC) and four TDs, while Hunt has 204 yards (5.2 YPC), giving the NFL's third-best rushing total (170.3 YPG on 5.2 YPC).

Speaking of RBs, Dallas' Zeke Elliott, a two-time rushing champion, has a modest 219 yards on YPC. Dallas QB Dak Prescott finished 37 of 57 for 472 yards, with three touchdowns and two interceptions against Seattle setting career highs for yards and attempts. However, Dallas lost. Prescott has topped 400 yards passing his last two games (is averaging 396.0 YPG on the season) but is that really helping? Better balance is a MUST plus the Dallas defense has been dreadful the last two weeks, allowing 39 and 38 points

The Cowboys have failed to cover 10 of their last 12 as a non-division home favorite but backing the Browns on the road is NOT an option. Yes, they own a winning record (2-1) for the FIRST time in 91 weeks but is that really a 'buy' sign? Cleveland's two wins have come over 0-2-1 Cincinnati (2-14 in 2019) and 1-2 Washington (3-13 in 2019) and come in  5-36 SU on the road since the start of the 2015 season (also: Browns are 6-15 ATS their last 21 vs NFC foes). Cowboys "get this one right" and win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the NO Saints at 1:00 ET.

The 1-2 New Orleans Saints visit the 1-2 Detroit Lions on Sunday. The Saints come in off back-to-back losses, having lost consecutive games for the first time in THREE years. As for the Lions, they are well familiar with consecutive losses but Detroit just ended an 11-game, 11-month losing streak with last Sunday's 26-23 upset of the Cardinals in the desert (game-winning 39-yard FG came on the game's final play).

The Saints had hoped that WR Michael Thomas would return from a groin injury that has kept him out the last two games but he was ruled out late Friday. Thomas caught 149 passes in 2019, an NFL record for the most in a single season. He's been missed, although Brees is completing 70.2% for 760 yards with six TDs and just one INT (106.2 QB rating). In fact, while Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. RB Alvin Kamara didn't agree to a contract extension until right before the opening of the 2020 season but he enters this game leading the Saints in rushing with 153 yards and three TDs plus also leads the team in receiving with 27 catches for 285 yards and three TDs (he owns NFL-high six TDs from scrimmage).

The Lions finally ended an 11-game slide with last Sunday's win. The Lions were outgained 377-322 by the Cardinals, as the game's key stat was Detroit picking off Arizona QB Kyler Murray three times, while the Detroit offense did not turn the ball over even once. Matt Stafford had a solid game (270 yards passing with two TDs) but Detroit is still struggling to run the ball. Adrian Peterson is the team's featured back but Detroit ran for just 90 yards against the Cards, averaging 3.3 YPG. A.P. has 209 yards rushing (4.9 YPV) but does not have a rushing TD and the team comes in rushing for only 105.7 YPG. Detroit's defense is allowing 30.7 PPG on 409.3 YPG (both totals rank near the bottom of all NFL teams).

Embattled Detroit head coach Matt Patricia could really use  two straight victories, as Green Bay and Chicago are both 3-0 atop the NFC North. "It's a huge difference between being 2-2 and the alternative," Lions running back Adrian Peterson acknowledged. He's got that right. Getting back to New Orleans, the Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). The Saints sure don't want to fall to 1-3 and New Orleans does enter this contest having gone 12-4 (75%) ATS its last 16 as a road favorite. As for the Lions, they did eke out a win last week but as noted, that ended an 11-game losing streak in which they were 2-9 ATS. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Cin Bengals at 1:00 ET.

It's NOT exactly Brady vs Brees like in Week 1, when the Bucs played the Saints but  Sunday's Week contest between the Jags and Browns will feature Garner Minshew vs Joe Burrow. Joe Burrow. Minshew took over for an injured Nick Foles as a rookie last season and showed plenty of promise. He opened his sophomore season completing 73.8 percent for 787 yards with six TDs and three INTs (101.3 QB rating). You may just have heard about Burro, last year's Heisman winner who led LSU to a 15-0 season and the national championship, then was the overall No. 1 pick by the Bengals. He has opened his rookie season completing 64.5 percent for 821 yards with five TDs and just one INT (more modest 89.0 QB rating). Both QBs have shaky offense lines, leading Minshew to be sacked 10 times and Burrow has suffered 14 sacks. Neither QB gets much help from their respective running games, as the Jags are averaging 109.3 YPG on the ground, while the Bengals are averaging a woeful 79.3 YPG.

The Jags no longer have RB Fournette, who topped 1,000 yards rushing in TWO of his three seasons with the Jags, including 1,152 last year.  Rookie James Robinson has become the team's featured back and has 210 yards on the ground with all three of the team's rushing TDs on a solid 4.9 YPC. He's also added 10 catches for 129 yards. So far, he's been a better-than-expected replacement. Good news for the Jags is that DJ Chark (73 catches and 8 TDS as a rookie), is expected to play, after missing last week's game (7 catches / 15.6 YPC / 1 TD). Fellow WRs Cole has 15 catches and to TDs but averages only 9.9 YPC, while Shenault has 11 catches and one TD but averages only 9.5 YPC. The Jacksonville D is allowing a middle-of-the-pack 364.3 YPG but also 28.0 PPG.

Cincy RB Mixon has 164 yards rushing (about 70% of the team's total, while averaging just 3.2 YPC. Bernard is listed as a RB but has just TWO carries on the season and he's basically a receiving option out of the backfield (12 catches) in 2020. WR Boyd leads with 21 catches and former star Green has 13 catches but a sad 8.9 YPC average. His first five seasons he averaged 983 catches per, topping 1,000 yards in each while hauling in 45 TDs. If Burrow can't get him back in form, Green may soon be an ineffective player. The Cincy D is allowing 392.3 YPG but a few less points than Jacksonville's D, at 24.7 PPG.

It seems like light years ago that the Jags led the Pats in New England in the AFC championship game in the mid-fourth quarter, before falling 24-20. However, that was actually the 2017 season, The Jags opened 3-1 in 2018 but then 'implode,' going 2-10 the rest of the wat-y. A 6-10 season followed in 2019 and the team's 1-2 start this season means the Jags are 9-22  since that 3-1 start in 2018, including 4-12 on the road. The Bengals made FIVE straight postseason appearances under QB Andy Dalton from 2011-15 but lost each time in their first playoff game. FOUR straight losing seasons followed, including 2019's 2-14 disaster. That gave them the No. 1 pick, which the team used to take Burrow.

How will the "Burrow era" play out? TBD. The Bengals have plenty of weaknesses but they've been in ALL three games, losing 16-13 at home to the Chargers in Week 1 (led 13-6 in the 4th quarter), 35-30 at Cleveland in Week 2 and almost beat the Eagles last Sunday in Philly, settling for a 23-23 tie in OT (Eagles tied the game on a 75-yard TD drive with 21 seconds to go).  I REALLY like what I've seen from Burrow and I'm betting that Week 4 will 'be the charm,' as Joe gets his first NFL win as a starting QB.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MNF Game of the Month is on the KC Chiefs at 8:20 ET.

Is tonight's Kansas City/Baltimore game a preview of this season's AFC championship game? Maybe so, but note it was the one everyone expected to see last January. However, the Ravens (-10) were upset 28-12 at home by the Tennessee Titans in the Divisional Round and advanced to the AFC championship game where they lost 35-24 to the eventual Super Bowl champion Chiefs. Both teams have opened 2-0 in 2020 and while the Chiefs come in as the defending champs, the Ravens will enter this game on a 14-game regular season winning streak, with an average winning margin of  18.8 PPG! It pits 2018 MVP Patrick Mahomes against 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson. Mahomes led the Chiefs to their first NFL championship since 1970 last season and was the Super Bowl MVP, while Jackson (36-6 TD/INT ratio and 113.3 QB rating) guided the Ravens to a 14-2 regular-season record, set the league mark for yards rushing by a QB (1,206 yards  / 6.9 YPA / 7 TDs) and directed the most prolific running attack in NFL history (206.0 YPG) . Are you ready for some football?

The Chiefs were dominant in their season opener, a 34-20 home win over Houston. Mahomes passed for a modest 211 yards but threw three TD passes (zero INTs) for a QB rating of 123.3, while rookie RB Edwards-Helaire ran for 138 yards and a TD. However, the Chiefs were lucky to escape with a win at LA vs the Chargers in Week 2, needing PK Harrison Butker's two field goals of 58 yards last week in an overtime win. Mahomes had 302 yards passing (2 TDs / 0 INTs) but Edwards-Helaire had only 38 yards rushing on 10 carries. The KC defense has allowed 419.5 YPG but just 20 points in each win.

It's hard to say a team off a 14-2 year has something to prove this season but that's the case with the Ravens. They routed the Browns 38-6 in Week 1 and then had little trouble with the Texans in Week 2, winning 33-16. Jackson has completed 77.6% of his passes for 479 yards with four TDs, no INTS and a QB rating of 134.6. He's added 99 yards rushing but no TDs) for a running game averaging 170.5 PPG on 5.1 YPC. Three RBs are sharing carries, Edwards has 90 yards (6.4 YPC) with one TD, Ingram 84 yards (4.4 YPC) with one TD and rookie Dobbins has 70 yards (9.8 YPC) with two TDs. The Baltimore D is not quite in the class of the Ray Lewis era units but the Ravens ranked 3rd in points allowed (17.6 PPG) and 4th in yards allowed (300.6 YPG) last season and through two games of 2020, ranked T-2 in yards allowed (305.0 YPG) and 1st in points allowed (11:0 PPG).

The Ravens have been waiting since 2017 to have a Monday night game at home but now that they got one, they'll be forced to play without the backing of their fans (zero in attendance because of the pandemic). These teams met in Week 3 last season, as the Chiefs built a 23-6 halftime lead, before holding off a late Baltimore comeback (KC won, 33-28). The Ravens have won 14 straight regular season games but the Chiefs will bring an 11-game winning streak into Monday night's showdown (eight straight in the regular season / 3-0 playoff run last year) and while Jackson 21-3 as a starter during the regular season, with TWO of those losses coming against Kansas City. This is NOT a playoff game but it sure has that kind of atmosphere. Mahomes is 4-1 in the postseason (13-2 TD/INT ratio and 106.6 QB rating), while Jackson is 0-2 in the postseason, completing 51.1% with three TDs and three INTs for a 68.3 QB rating. Take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the NO Saints at 8:20 ET.

The Saints are back in primetime for teh second straight week, as they welcome the 2-0 Packers to New Orleans for Sunday Night Football on NBC. The Packers own two impressive wins, 43 34 at Minnesota (game was not as close as the final score) and 42-12 at home over the Lions. The Saints opened with a 34-23 home win over TB 12 and the Bucs in Week 1 but then lost by almost that exact same score (34-24) at Las Vegas on MNF to the Raiders in Week 2. BOTH teams are coming off 13-3 seasons in 2019. 

Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th).

Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions. The Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. 

Rodgers has thrown for 604 yards in the two wins with six TDPs and zero INTs (119.4 QB rating). Jones looks to be even better this season, running for 234 yards on 6.9 YPC with three TDs, while catching eight passes with another TD. Adams is a possession receiver with 17 catches and two TDs, while Valedes-Scantling ( 7catches / 22.9 YPC) and Lazard ( 7 catches / 15.4 YPC) have helped Rodgers stretch the field.

Brees had two TDs passes in Week 1 (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. Brees threw for 312 yards on MNF but a 17-7 first-half lead was wiped away as the Raiders outscored teh Saints 27-7 from the last second quarter through the end of the game. The good news was that Kamara ran for 95 yards and caught NINE passes. The bad news is that Thomas sat out the Saints' loss in Las Vegas with an ankle sprain and did not take the field when the Saints returned to practice on Thursday. Brees can always rely on TE Cook but he'll need the veteran Sanders plus two young WRs (Smith and Harris) to step up.

Green Bay WR receiver Davante Adams left last Sunday's victory over Detroit with a hamstring injury. Rodgers will need him close to 100 percent in this one. Yes, Green Bay is 2-0 but its wins are over a pair of 0-2 teams in the Vikings and Lions, who are a combined 0-4 ATS to open the 2020 season. The Saints enter this contest on a 12-4 (75%) ATS run over their last 16 regular season games. The Saints own an excellent rush D (3.3 YPC) and slowing down Jones could be the key to a victory.

I had the Saints in Week 1, went against them in Week 2 with the Raiders and I'm now back "on" them here vs The Pack.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Featured Sunday Total of the Week is on TB/Den Over at 4:25 ET.

Obviously, one of the NFL's biggest storylines entering the 2020 season (not counting COVID-19) was Tom Brady leaving New England (after some moderate success) and landing in Tampa Bay with the Bucs. Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp were that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He also brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). However, Brady's been pretty mediocre, throwing for just 456 yards after two games with as many INTs (three) as TD passes (three). Going back to last season, Brady enters this contest having thrown interceptions in each of his last four starts, three of them being Pick-6s! As for Gronk, it would be a HUGE understatement to say he is off to a slow start in Tampa. He has just two catches for 11 yards and was held without a catch last week for just the FIFTH time in his 117-game career.

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013. The Broncos were outplayed by Tennessee in Week 1 but lost just 16-14 when Gostkowski missed three FGs and an extra-point. In Week 2 at Pittsburgh, Drew Lock went down with a shoulder) injury but Jeff Driskel (256 passing yards with two TDs and one INT) led an unlikely comeback despite taking six sacks and absorbing 17 hits. Denver trailed by 14 points at halftime and by 12 in the fourth quarter but was 15 yards away from a stunning upset before Edmunds came off the edge and sent Driskel to the turf one last time.

Looking at this contest, I see a much higher scoring game than the total indicates. Brady OVERDUE for a "big game," as his Gronk. As for RB Leonard Fournette, who signed with the Bucs earlier this month, he ran for 103 yards in Week 2 (on 8.6 YPC) with two TDs. Fournette may also just remember running for 225 yards on 29 carries in the Jaguars' 26-24 win at Denver a year ago. Yes, Jeff Driskel gets his first start for Denver and is seeking just his SECOND career win, which would be only 248 fewer than Brady. Fans are absent (for the most part) in 2020 but the Broncos may have a big home-field edge with teams coming in even later and having no time to adjust to the elevation. Denver is on a 9-2-1 ATS a home dog, so don't be surprised if they are in this all the way. What's more, Driskel is going against a Tampa Bay defense that allowed 28.1 PPG. last season plus its pass D allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs. Tampa's D may be slightly better than last year's unit but not MUCH better. I expect BOTH Brady AND Driskel to play well. This one is Goin' OVER!

Good luck...Larr

My NFL 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET.

The LA Rams have opened 2-0 after an impressive 37-19 road win in Week 2 at Philadelphia. The Rams are back on the East Coast again on Sunday, when they take on the Buffalo Bills, who are also off to a 2-0 start. The duo is part of a group of 11 NFL teams that have opened 2-0 but barring a tie, one team will walk away 3-0 and the other 2-1 after Sunday's contest. On the coaching sidelines, it will be a battle of wits between two Seans.

Sean McVay got his first NFL head coaching gig with the Rams when he was hired in January of 2017. The hiring made him the youngest head coach in the NFL's modern era,  at the age of 30 years, 354 days. He immediately led the Rams to an 11-5 record and a playoff berth in 2017 and then went 13-3 in 2018, taking the Rams all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year's 9-7 finish kept LA out of the playoffs but a 3-0 start would sure be 'sweet,' considering the Rams play in the brutally tough NFC West (Arz and Sea are also 2-0 and the defending NFC champion 49ers are 1-1). The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games.

Buffalo's Sean is Mr McDermott, who was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoffs again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East? Buffalo's 2-0 start surely has fans taking notice.

The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley to  WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. However, as noted, the Rams are 2-0. QB Jared Goff was the overall No. 1 pick in the 2016 draft and he's surely NOT disappointed. He was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys in Week 1 (completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT), but threw for 270 yards with three TDs and zero INTs vs Philly (142.0 QB rating). RB Todd Gurley was the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade but was released and signed with the Falcons. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but second-year pro Darrell Henderson led vs Philly with 81 yards (6.8 YPC) with one TD. Despite the team's defensive losses, the Rams held the Cowboys to just three points in the second half on SIX possessions and then Philly to just 19 points, while forcing three TOs.

Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen was part of the 2017 NFL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round (he was selected 7th, overall). He has not been a prolific passer in his first two seasons but he's a real leader and has produced. Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen has made excellent strides and became just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. The 2020 season looks like a "breakout" one for the former Wyoming Cowboy. He threw for 312 yards with two TDs and no INTs in a 27-17 Week 1 win over the Jets and followed with a career-high 417 passing yards vs the Dolphins in Week 2, with a career-best four TDs and again, zero INTs (QB rating of 147.0). The addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota, is a big deal. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He had eight catches for 153 yards a TD last week (had eight catches for just 86 yards in Week 1) and joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs in 2019) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs in 2019).

Buffalo had the Jets down 27-10 before a TD with under a minute to go made it a 27-17 final. Last week, it was 31-20 Buffalo, before the Dolphins got the backdoor cover with another TD with under a minute to go. The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 21-8 SU in road and neutral site games (including playoff games) but this is a tough spot for LA, back on the East Coast for a second straight week. I really like this Buffalo team and after B2B games against AFC foes, the Bills draw their first NFC opponent of the season. That's NOT bad news, as the Bills are on a current 11-5-1 ATS run vs NFC opponents.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the LV Raiders at 8:15 ET.

Last Sunday night on NBC, the LA Rams opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, by edging the Cowboys 20-17. The only thing missing was the fans. Monday night on ESPN, the Las Vegas Raiders get their chance to show off their shiny new $2 billion stadium near the Las Vegas Strip with a high-profile matchup against Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints but like last Sunday night in LA, the stadium will be empty. Monday's night's Week 2 contest was supposed to be a big celebration of the NFL's arrival in Las Vegas but the atmosphere has been dampened a bit by the decision not to allow fans at Raiders games this season in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. That said, the venue is beautiful and both teams are coming off Week 1 wins.

The Raiders have been waiting for this moment for years, as they've spent the past 25 seasons playing in the rundown Oakland Coliseum. The team was unable to get an agreement on a new stadium in the Bay Area and was blocked from moving to Los Angeles, so it ended up in the desert instead. This game also marks the first time Saints coach Sean Payton and Raiders coach Jon Gruden, who are old friends and colleagues, have been on opposite sidelines since Gruden left Tampa Bay after the 2008 season. Gruden was the Eagles offensive coordinator under coach Ray Rhodes when Payton was hired to his first NFL job as Philadelphia's quarterbacks coach in 1997.

I had the Saints in their Week 1 win over Brady and the Bucs, noting that this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions.

Brees had two TDs passes last Sunday (no picks) but threw for just 160 yards. He got very little help from his running game as Alvin Kamara, who FINALLY agreed to a long-term deal with the club right before the start of the season, ran for just 16 yards on 12 carries (he did catch five balls for 51 yards. Murray added 49 yards rushing but the Saints had just 82 yards rushing for the game. The Saints' rush D has been excellent the last few seasons, as New Orleans has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 44 consecutive games entering this contest (held the Bucs to just 86 yards on 3.3 YPC last week). The Saints' D also gave Brady fits with two INTs, including a 'pick-6.'

The Raiders won 34-30 last Sunday at Carolina, as Derek Carr completed 22 of 30 (73.3%) for 239 yards with one TD and no INTs (107.8 QB rating. RB Josh Jacobs ran for 93  yards but averaged just 3.7 YPC. However, he did score three TDs and also caught four passes for 46 yards. Expect continued success by this Alabama product who ran for 1,150 yards (4.8 YPC) and seven TDs as a rookie last season (played just 13 games)! The Raiders blew a 12-point fourth quarter lead last Sunday but Carr engineered a nine-play, 75-yard TD drive (Jacobs capped it with a six-yard TD run) for the win.

As noted earlier, I had the Saints last Sunday but I was NOT impressed with Brees and WR Thomas, who has caught 100-plus passes the last three seasons, including 149 in 2019 for 1,725 yards, has been ruled out for this game. I am well aware that the Saints are on a 12-3 ATS run as road favorite but I'm counting on some MNF home team 'magic,' even without fan support. "It still is as a football fan a cool feeling to be able to play on Monday night," QB Derek Carr said. "We wish our city here, Las Vegas, we wish they could experience it with us. I'm sure they will be around somewhere. I'm sure there is a certain street or strip that they'll be on that our fans will be at. But I wish they could be there, but hopefully it still feels the same energy and all those kinds of things." Take the MNF home dog.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic play is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:20 ET,.

I featured a Brady (TB) vs Brees NO) marquee QB matchup in Week 1 (won with the Saints, BTW) and here in Week 2, it's a marquee head coaching matchup featuring Bill (NE) vs Pete (Sea) and it's showcased on NBC's Sunday Night Football. Carrol's first head coaching job was with the Jets (1994) and he went 6-10, before getting fired. However, he was hired by New England in 1997 and took the Pats to the playoffs that season and in 1998, before going 8-8 in 1999, when Bob Kraft fired him (guess who took over for him?). Carroll re-emerged at USC in 2000 and starting 2001, the Trojans never won less than 11 games in any season. A few noteworthy accomplishments were SEVEN consecutive AP Top-4 finishes, a 34-game winning streak, a national-record 33 consecutive weeks as the AP's No. 1-ranked team and two national titles. After a 9-4 finish in 2009 and amidst some controversy, he jumped to the NFL with the Seattle Seahawks. His first two seasons (2010 and 2011) saw Settle go 7-9 but the Seahawks actually won the NFC West in 2010. Beginning in 2012, the Seahawks have won 10-plus games in SEVEN of the last eight seasons, going to back-back Super Bowls at the end of the 2013 season (won) and the 2014 season (lost).

Now to Belichick. He was Cleveland's head coach from 1991 through 1995 but NO ONE wins there anymore. Belichick was 36-44 overall, making ONE playoff appearance in . He then took over in New England after Carroll was fired and after a 5-11 season in 2001, has earned the right to claim being the NFL's best-ever head coach. Some guy named Brady stepped in and replaced an injured Bledsoe at QB in the 2001 season and led the Pats to their first Super Bowl title. They went just 9-7 in 2002 (missed the playoffs but from 2003 through 2019, have never won less than 10 games in a season, while adding FIVE more Super Bowl titles. That Brady guy may have had something to do with Belichick's success, but that's an argument for another day.

Former league MVP Cam Newton is Belichick's starting QB in 2020 and he looked pretty darn good in Week 1, completing 15 of 19 for 155 yards (no TDs but ZERO interceptions!). He led the Pats in rushing yards with 75 and scored two TDs in the team's 21-1 win over Miami. New England's rushing game (minus Newton) is average at best (I think I'm being too kind) plus Newton's receiving corps isn't' much better. Edelman had five catches for 57 yards and Henry also had five catches but averaged just 7.5 YPC. However, New England's defense (despite significant players opting out), was as good as ever. The Pats led the NFL in points allowed in 2019 (14.1 PPG) and total yards (275.9 YPG) and bettered BOTH of those numbers vs the Dolphins, holding them to 11 points and 269 yards.

Speaking of defense, Seattle's "Legion of Boom" is a thing of the past, as Matt Ryan threw for 450 yards (THREE receivers topped 100 yards) in Week 1. However, Seattle's Russell Wilson was brilliant, completing 31 of 35 (88.6%) for 322 yards with four TDs and zero INTs (QB rating of 143.1). When asked about Wilson this past week, Belichick said, "Honestly, I think he's in a way underrated by the media or the fans, I don't know. But I don't really see anybody better than this player, This guy is a tremendous player." Seattle's running game is a 'mess,' with Hyde and Carson combining for 44 yards on 3.4 YPC in Week 1. However, when the final score was in, Seattle won 38-25.

Sunday's matchup between the 69-year-old Carroll and 68-year-old Belichick will bring together the two oldest coaches currently in the NFL. Even more noteworthy is that it's a rematch of one of the more memorable Super Bowls in recent years (XLIX), where NE snatched victory from the jaws of defeat in the final seconds with an interception at the goal line (Why not run 'Beast Mode?'). CenturyLink Field is one of the loudest venues in the NFL but will be silent for Seattle's home opener, as no fans will be allowed in for at least the first three home games. That said, Seattle is on a MONEY-MAKING run of 13-4 ATS in home openers. As for the Pats, without Brady, any past New England trends are "non-applicable." Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Total of the Month is on Jax/Ten Over at 1:00 ET.

Full, detailed analysis by 3:00 ET Wednesday afternoon Wednesday 

My 10* NFC Game of the Month is on the Phi Eagles at 1:00 ET.

The LA Rams eked out a 20-17 Week 1 win over the Cowboys last Sunday night, when they opened their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium. On the other side of the country, the Philadelphia Eagles jumped out to a 17-0 in the nation's capital against the Washington Football Team, before Washington scored the game's final 27 points in a 10-point Philly loss. As the Rams visit Philly to take on the Eagles in this Week 2 contest, all eyes will be on the QB matchup between Jared Goff and Carson Wentz.

Some quick history. Two QBs have been selected Nos. 1-2 in the NFL draft only SEVEN times since 1967. However, it NEVER worked out for both teams until Goff (Rams) and Wentz (Eagles) went 1-2 in the 2016 draft. Wentz finished third in MVP voting his sophomore season (2017) when the Eagles won their first Super Bowl title, although they would win without him after he tore two knee ligaments late in the season (threw for 3,296 yards with a 33-7 ratio in 13 games), Goff followed by leading the Rams to a Super Bowl appearance the following season (201*0, where they lost 13-3 to New England (Goff threw for 4,688 yards with a 32-12 ratio).

The outlook for 2020 was a little murky for the Rams, as the roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks on offense, along with top pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton on the defensive side of the ball. Goff was solid (nothing special) vs the Cowboys, completing 20 of 31 for 275 yards with one TD and one INT. The Rams have replaced Gurley with three RBs. Veteran Malcolm Brown got most of the workload against Dallas, running for 79 yards and two TDs but McVay went into the game expecting to give more playing time to rookie Cam Akers, who started and ran for 39 yards. McVay is likely to give more work to Akers and second-year pro Darrell Henderson against the Eagles, The defense did a VERY good job vs Dallas, holding the Cowboys to just three points in the second half, on SIX possessions.

Wentz (270 yards with two TDs and two INTs) had two TD passes as the Eagles took a 17-0 lead at Washington in the second quarter but a non-existent running game (17 for 57 yards / 3.4 YPC), an injury-depleted offensive line that allowed eight sacks and three TOs, "did in" Philadelphia. The bright spot was the Philly D, which allowed just 80 rushing yards (2.2 YPC) and 159 passing yards.

The Rams have been a dominant road team during McVay's tenure, going 20-8 SU in road and neutral site games, including playoff games. However, the Eagles have won SIS straight against the Rams (6-0 ATS, as well), including their most recent meeting in 2018, when the Eagles won 30-23 at LA in Week 15 as a 13 1/2-point underdog. Philly RB Miles Sanders is expected to return for the Eagles after missing the opener with a hamstring injury. His addition is no small deal, as he led all rookies in scrimmage yards last season with 1,327 (818 rushing / 509 receiving). Eagles bounce back with a win and avoid an 0-2 start.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Battle 4 Ohio play is on the Cin Bengals at 8:20 ET.

The Browns opened the 2020 season with a new head coach, as Freddie Kitchens lasted just ONE season. Kevin Stefanski signed a five-year contract to become the 18th head coach of the Cleveland Browns on January 13, 2020 (was Minnesota's OC in 2019 and this marks his first head coaching job). QB Baker Mayfield had a promising rookie season in 2018 (27/14 TD-to INT ratio and 93.7 QB rating) and Cleveland's 2019 season looked promising. However, Mayfield was awful through the season's first eight games, throwing just seven TD passes with 12 INTs as the Browns went 2-6. They did  win FOUR of their next five games (Mayfield had an 8-4 ratio) but the Browns lost their final three games to finish 6-10 (it didn't help that the Cleveland D allowed 34.0 PPG in those final three games). As for Mayfield, he ended his 'sophomore' season with 22 TDs, 21 INTs and a 77.8 QB rating (far off his 'freshman' numbers!).

Marvin Lewis took over at Cincinnati and had just ONE playoff appearance in his first six seasons. However, he then led the Bengals to SIX postseason appearances over a  seven-year stretch (2009-15) but the Bengals always lost their first playoff game. Three straight losing years followed (2016-18) and he was finally fired. Zac Taylor got the job (his first head coaching gig) in 2019 and the Bengals were just 2-14. However, Cincy was pinning its 2020 hopes on Heisman-winner Jeff Burrow out of LSU, fresh off one of CFB's most prolific seasons.

Joe Burrow's NFL debut (he was the only rookie QB to start the first week of the season) was a mixed bag. He ran 23 yards for a TD but was a modest 22 of 36 for 193 yards without a TD pass. He put the Bengals in range for a dramatic, late-game win but threw an interception on a shovel pass to thwart one late scoring chance and then watched as Randy Bullock missed a 31-yard field goal with two seconds left, clinching the Chargers' 16-13 win. The good news was that the Cincy "D," which allowed 26.3 PPG in 2019, held the Chargers to just 16 points.

The Browns have won just ONE game on Opening Day since returning to the NFL in 1999 and last Sunday was no different. The Cleveland D had no answer for Lamar Jackson, who completed 20 of 25 for 275 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (152.1 QB rating). Jackson also added 45 yards rushing. As for Mayfield, he was a non-factor, going 21 of 39 for 189 yards with one TD and one INT. The offense converted just 3 of 12 third downs and was 0 for 3 on 4th downs

These are two sad-sack franchises but while I think the Browns 'whiffed' with Mayfield, I believe the Bengals "have a keeper" in Burrow. I'm taking the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* MNF Magic Play is on the Den Broncos at 10:20 ET.

The Tennessee Titans opened the 2019 season with a dominating 43-13 win at Cleveland in Week 1 but then lost FOUR of their next five, scoring a total of just 31 points in those four losses. That slide 'gave birth' to a QB change for the Titans, as Ryan Tannehill replaced Marcus Mariota. Tannehill and Derrick Henry, the NFL's leading rusher with 1,540, then took control of the Titans' offense. The Titans would go 7-3 the rest of the way, averaging 30.4 PPG. They qualified as a wild card and then beat the Pats 23-10 on the road, followed  by a shocking upset over the AFC's No. 1 seed, a 28-12 win in Baltimore. Henry ran for 182 and 195 yards (5.9 YPC) in those two wins, while Tannehill basically 'watched' (15 of 29 for just 160 yards in the two wins). Tennessee's 'Cinderella' run ended in the AFC championship game, when the Chiefs won, 35-24 (Tenn led 17-7 but KC then scored the game's next 28 points!).

The Broncos went 5-11 and 6-10 under Van Joseph and he was 'shown the door' after the 2018 season. Vic Fangio was hired in January of 2019 and it was his first head coaching job. Fangio is known as a terrific DC and his defenses have consistently been among the most productive in the NFL in a number of categories. However, the Broncos would go just 7-9, giving them THREE consecutive losing seasons for the first time since 1972. Heading into 2020, these are facts. Drew Lock is the 7th starting QB since Peyton Manning helped (did he really?) the Broncos to their Super Bowl 50 win and NO head coach has reached a THIRD season at Denver since John Fox in 2013.

Tennessee visits Denver for the second-half of the NFL's Monday Night doubleheader, as the Broncos host the Titans in an empty Empower Field at Mile High. I'm not even REMOTELY sold on Tannehill at QB and while Henry's a DOMINATING force in the backfield, he has struggled in two games against Denver in his career. He ran 12 times for 42 yards backing up DeMarco Murray as a rookie in a Titans' win on Dec 11, 2016 (no big deal there) but he was held to 28 yards on 15 rushes in a 16-0 loss in Denver last October. That EASILY was Henry's worst game last season. Tennessee added two "big names" on defense, Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley Jr. However, Clowney didn't sign his contract until Sep 7 and Beasley didn't pass his physical until Sep 5, after spending training camp on the non-football injury list. Beasley is out and playing in the altitude of Denver could limit the number of reps Clowney gets.

Fangio's defense was not great last year but Denver still held opponents to 19.8 PPG, one of 10 teams under 20.0 PPG . Star linebacker Von Miller suffered a serious ankle injury and is out but five-time Pro Bowl defensive lineman Jurrell Casey was traded by Tennessee to Denver in the off season  in a salary dump (cleared $11 million in cap space). "It's going to be a little bit more juice," Casey said as his Denver debut approached.

Signing Joe Flacco was a big mistake  and I wouldn't underestimate Drew Lock. The Broncos went 4-1 with him as a starter, losing only to KC (Super Bowl champs). Denver averaged 26.0 PPG in his four wins. Philip Lindsay ran for 1,011 yards (4.5 YPC) last season but will be pushed by the acquisition of Melvin Gordon. He's always been overrated as a runner but he's an outstanding pass-catcher and fits well in OC Pat Schurmer's offense.

The Broncos are appearing on "Monday Night Football" for an NFL-best 29th consecutive season and I want the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SNF Magic Play is on the LA Rams at 8:20 ET.

The Los Angeles Rams open their $5 billion West Coast NFL showpiece, SoFi Stadium, on Sunday night and their opponents will be Jerry Jones' Dallas Cowboys (Jones knows a little about building a spectacular venue. Obviously, the absence of fans because of the coronavirus pandemic puts a massive asterisk on what should have been a triumphant occasion for the league and two of its most important owners, Jones and LA's Stan Kroenke.

The Cowboys come to LA with a new head coach for the first in a decade, as Mike McCarthy (a Super Bowl winner at Green bay in the season) takes over for Jason Garrett. He inherits what most people believe is one of the NFL's most talented rosters but the team owns just ONE playoff victory in the past half-decade. Sean McVay was 30-years-old when he was hired by the Rams in 2017 at the age of 30, becoming the youngest head coach in modern NFL history. The Rams went 11-5 and earned a wild card berth in his first year and then in 2018. McVay led the Rams to Super Bowl LIII, becoming the youngest coach ever to do so and earning him the NFL Coach of the Year award. The Rams finished 9-7 in 2019, missing the playoffs.

The Cowboys were a disappointing 8-8 last season and FINALLY, Jones gave Garrett the boot. QBB Dak Prescott (4,902 passing yards / 30-11 TD/INT ratio), RB Zeke Elliot (1,357 yards rushing with 12 TDs and 54 catches) and WR Omari Cooper (79 catches / 15.1 YPC / 8 TDs) are Dallas' current version of "The Triplets" (note: Don't tell that to Troy, Emmitt and Michael). Gallup caught 66 passes last season (16.8 YPC and 6 TDs) and joining Cooper and Gallup on the outside is Oklahoma star WR CeeDee Lamb. There is little doubt that the Cowboys have an offense that can match ANY in the league but that was the case last season too, and the team finished 8-8. was one of the NFL's best last season. The Cowboys are a popular pick to be an immediate Super Bowl contender under McCarthy. Well see.

The outlook is far murkier for the Rams, Their roster took several big losses in the offseason, from RB Todd Gurley (the foundation of the Rams' offense for the past half-decade) to WR Brandin Cooks. Top to pass rusher Dante Fowler and leading tackler Cory Littleton are also gone. QB Jared Goff was drafted 134 picks before Prescott in 2016, but Prescott has passed for more yards (15,778 to 14,219) and TDs (97 to 87) with a higher completion rate (65.8% to 62.4%) and fewer interceptions (36 to 42). However, after McVay's arrival, Goff's played in FOUR playoff games (including A Super Bowl), while Prescott's Cowboys have missed the playoffs TWICE in his four years, winning just ONE postseason game.

These teams met in Week 15 last season in Dallas, as the Rams suffered a thorough beatdown, with the Cowboys winning 44-21 and finishing with a 475-289 yard advantage. However, it's notable that Dallas was one-point dog in that contest while here in LA for Week 1, Dallas opened as a three-point road favorite. The Cowboys were just 3-5 on the road last season, winning games at Washington, at the NY Giants and at Detroit. Those teams combined for a 10-37-1 (.219) record in 2019. Dallas lost at playoffs teams New I=Orleans, New England and Philly, with the team's 'revered' offense averaging a pathetic 9.3 PPG. BTW...The Cowboys also lost at the Jets and Bears, who were both 7-9. The home dog 'BARKS' in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My NFL Week 1 Marquee Play is on the NO Saints at 4:25 ET.

This Week 1 contest between the Tampa Bay Bucs and the New Orleans Saints features the first game ever to involve two QBs in their 40s, Tom Brady and Drew Brees. However, that's hardly the ONLY storyline, as these particular 40-year-old QBs are QUITE special. Brees is the NFL's all-time leader in yards passing with 77,416 and passing TDs with 547. Brady is second in both categories with 74,571 and 541. Brady's won a record SIX Super Bowl titles but for the first time in his career, he will line up under center for a team other than the Patriots. Brees has not made it back to a Super Bowl since his only championship in the 2008 season. However, his efficiency has been as good as ever the past couple of seasons. He set an NFL record with a 74.4% completion rate in 2018 and nearly matched it last season, when he completed 74.3% of his passes, while also throwing a career-low four interceptions.

Brady's been 'off' the last two seasons (QB ratings of 97.7 and 88.0) but reports out of camp are that Brady's arm is stronger than last year. He's brought to Tampa his own personal TE, "The Gronk" (no explanation needed). WR Mike Evans has averaged 77 catches per season over his first six years, topping 1,000 yards each time plus has 48 TD receptions. RB Jones had a solid second season in 2019, rushing for 724 yards on 4.2 YPG. Tampa has added six-time Pro Bowl selection LeSean McCoy and two-time 1,000-yard rusher Leonard Fournette to the backfield mix. There's NO debate that Brady is an upgrade over Winston (5,109 yards with 33 TDs but also 30 INTs) and I expect the Bucs to have an excellent offense in 2020. However, defense IS an issue, as the Bucs allowed 28.1 PPG. More troubling is Tampa Bay's pass D, which allowed 270.1 YPG (30th), along with 30 TD passes but just 12 INTs.

The Saints stumbled out of the Blocks last season (it's become a ritual, lately) but then finished on a 12-2 SU run, going 11-3 ATS. Brees was great (see above) and the Saints added WR Emmanuel Sanders in free agency to a receiver group led by All-Pro Michael Thomas, who caught an NFL single-season record 149 passes in 2019. Brees' other favorite targets include veteran TE Jared Cook (43 catches and 9 TDs to tie Thomas for the team lead) and RB Alvin Kamara (81 catches). Kamara led the team in rushing with 797 yards on 4.7 YPC and 5 TDs. He's backed up by Murray, who added 637 yards on 4.4 YPC (note: Murray ran for 1,066 for Oakland in 2015 and scored 12 rushing TDs for the Raiders in 2016).

Most 'talk' revolves around Brady and can he lead the Bucs to their first postseason since 2006. However, this could be Brees' last season, as a TV job awaits. The Saints have won more regular-season games than any team in the NFL over the past three seasons (11-5, 13-3, 13-3), only to suffer three gut-wrenching playoff defeats in the final seconds (the "Minneapolis Miracle," the "No-call" and an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings last season). I'm laying the points with Brees over Brady in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* "Featured" Total of the Week is on NYJ/Buf Over at 1:00 ET.

Sean McDermott was hired by the Buffalo Bills as the 22nd head coach in franchise history and took over in 2017. The Bills would go 9–7 in his 'rookie year' and secure the AFC's 6th seed and their first playoff appearance in 18 years That ended the NFL's longest active playoff drought. The Bills finished just 6-10 the following season but had a solid finish to the season after a 2–7 start, staying competitive in each of their last seven games (4-3). Buffalo was back in the playoff again in 2019, going 10-6 and earning the No. 5 seed. With Brady gone and New England seeing more players "opt out" than any team in the NFL, is this the year someone other than the Patriots win the AFC East.

The Jets last made the postseason in 2010 and have posted just ONE winning season (10-6 in 2015) in that nine-year span. Adam Gase went 7-9 in his first season as the Jets' head coach but he seems to think the jets "are close." So does Le'Veon Bell. He says he's "night and day" ahead of last season in terms of his grasp of the offense. He believes the same is true for every player, especially QB Sam Darnold. It's getting to that "now or never" point of Darnold's career and many still believe he can be a quality starting QB in the NFL (we'll see). We KNOW what Bell can do at his best. He had 1,361 rushing yards and 85 catches in 2014, 1,268 rushing yards and 94 catches in 2015 (12 games) and 1,291 rushing yards and 107 catches in 2017 (all for Pittsburgh). He was limited to just six games in 2016 and then sat out all of 2018, before signing with the Jets, I believe New York's offense will be greatly improved in 2020 but the defense some key players on defense with safety Adams being traded to Seattle and LB Mosley choosing to opt out.

Buffalo's starting QB Josh Allen, like Darnold, was part of the same 2017 NHL Draft that saw five QBs taken in the first round. He's not a prolific passer but he's a real leader and has produced (unlike Darnold). Allen completed a modest 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards with an 20-9 TD/INT ratio in 2019 but also ran for 510 yards and nine TDs. Allen is far from being a Pro Bowl QB but he has made excellent strides and has become just the fourth QB in NFL history with at least 20 passing TDs (30) and 12 rushing TDs (17) in his first two seasons. A real bonus this year for the offense is the addition of WR Stefon Diggs, acquired in a trade with Minnesota. Diggs has averaged 73 catches per year in his five seasons with the Vikings, while grabbing 30 TD passes. He joins WRs Brown (72 catches / 6 TDs) and Beasley (67 catches / 6 TDs. The ageless Frank Gore is gone at RB (actually, he's on the Jets) but FAU rookie Devin Singletary was the "featured back" down the stretch, finishing with 751 yards on 5.1 YPC. The buffalo offense averaged only PPG in 2019 but watch that average 'soar' here in 2020.

Buffalo is 11-4 ATS in openers and the Jets have failed to cover 10 of their last 13 against AFC East opponents. Lay the points? Maybe an OK idea but this is the lowest over/under of Week 1, opening at 39.5 (second-lowest opened at 42. I expect Darnold to want to "show well" against Allen plus I'm 'buying' Bell's optimism about his team. As for the Bills, don't be surprised if this year's offense averages 5-7 points higher than the 19.6 PPG Buffalo averaged in 2019. It's Goin' Over!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Division Game of the Month (NFC Central) is on the Min Vikings at 1:00 ET.

Mike Zimmer began as Minnesota's head coach back in 2015 and led the Vikes to an 11-5 season (wild card berth). He's taken Minnesota to the playoffs in both 2017 (13-3 / division champs) and again last season at 10-6 (another wild card). However, in the even numbered years, 2016 and '18, his teams have fallen short of the postseason, going 8-8 and 8-7-1, respectively. He knows a non-postseason year in 2020 will NOT be acceptable. Green Bay head coach Matt LeFleur had quite a 'rookie year' with the Packers in 2019 (first-ever head coaching job), as he led the Packers to a 13-3 record and a spot in the NFC championship game (forgettable 37-20 loss at San Francisco in a contest that was NOT as close as the final score). The Packers beat the Vikings in BOTH 2019 meetings, 21-16 in Week 2 at Green Bay and 23-10 at Minnesota in Week 16. The two NFC Central rivals open their respective 2020 seasons on Sunday in Minnesota.

Aaron Rodgers has long ago 'punched his ticket' to Canton but while he threw for 4,002 yards last season (26-4 TD/INT ratio), the Packers averaged a middle-of-the-pack 23.5 PPG on 345.5 YPG. RB Aaron Jones was great (1,084 rushing yards with 16 TDs plus 49 catches with 3 TDs), as was WR Davante Adams (83 catches / 5 TDs), but those two were his only "playmakers." The defense allowed 352.6 PPG (18th) but held opponents to 19.6 PPG (9th).

Kirk Cousins is oft-criticized but he completed 70.1% for 4,298 yards with 30 TDs and 10 INTs in his first season with the Vikings and then completed 69.1% for 3,603 yards with 26 TDs and 6 INTs last year, finishing with a career-high QB rating of 107.4. RB Dalvin Cook had a breakout season in 2019 (1,135 yards with 13 TDs plus 63 catches), despite missing the last two regular season contests. Minnesota loses outstanding WR Stefon Diggs (traded to Buffalo) but Adam Thielen is back healthy and don't forget, he had 91 catches in 2017 and 113 in 2018. Also, expect a big season from TE Kyle Rudolph (39 catches / 6 TDs). Zimmer's 'baby' has been the Minnesota defense but wholesale changes have been made with both DL and DB positions.

Cousins was terrific in 2019 BUT was just terrible in his two meetings with Green Bay, as he had his two-lowest passer ratings of the year at 52.9 and 58.8.Let n]me add that Dalvin Cook was not able to play in that Week 16 loss. However, here's the rub. How badly do you think Minnesota wants this game? Consider this. For the first time in the franchise's 60 seasons, the Vikings have their opener scheduled at home against the rival Packers, an immediate opportunity to avenge their decisive defeat at U.S. Bank Stadium on Dec. 23, 2019, that clinched the NFC North for Green Bay (Vikings were held to 7 FDs and 139 yards!). Rodgers is Rodgers but he's just 6-6 in his career at Minnesota plus the Vikings are on a 22-8-1 ATS run as a home favorite. Lay the 'small' number!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month (Super Bowl LIV) is on the KC Chiefs at 6:30 ET.

The Baltimore Ravens ended the regular season on a 12-game winning streak to enter as the AFC's No. 1 seed at 14-2. San Francisco survived in Week 17 at Seattle, holding on (by inches) for a 26-21 win at Seattle to finish 13-3 and earn the NFC's No. 1 seed. If the two No. 1 seeds had advanced to the Super Bowl, we were looking at a replay of Super XLVII (nicknamed the Harbaugh Bowl), when Baltimore beat San Francisco 34-31 to win the 2012 title. However, the Ravens were upset by the Titans, so on Championship Sunday, a rematch of Super Bowl I loomed, if KC could win (as expected) over Tennessee and the Packers could upset the 49ers. KC held up its end but Green Bay (much to my chagrin) were NO match for San Francisco. The leaves us with the 49ers looking to match the Pats and Steelers with the franchise's SIXTH Super Bowl title, after becoming only the SECOND team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl a year after losing at least 12 games. The 1999 St Louis Rams also went 4-12 the season before reaching AND winning Super Bowl XXXIV. Not to be outdone in "the history" department, the Chiefs return to the Super Bowl 50 years after last appearing in one. The Chiefs played in and won Super Bowl IV 16-7 over the Vikings, the final Super Bowl prior to the AFL-NFL merger. That 50-year span sets a record for longest stretch between Super Bowl appearances for any club (note: As mentioned earlier, the Chiefs also played in Super I, losing to Lombardi's Packers, 35-10).

San Francisco's defense was dominant during the team's 7-0 start (11.0 PPG) but "worse than average" during team's last nine games, allowing 25.9 PPG. However, the Niners D has been "back in form" in the postseason, holding the Vikings to 147 yards and just seven FDs (Minnesota was 2 of 12 on 3rd downs and 0 of 2 on 4th downs). The Packesr did gain 358 yards in teh NFC championship game but trailed 27-0 at the half and two 4th-quarter TD drives accounted for 167 of the team's total of 358 yards. San Francisco averaged 29.2 PPG on the season (2nd) and its running game, second-best to only Baltimore's in the regular season at 144.1 YPG, has led the way in the playoffs.The 49ers controlled the game vs the Vikings with 186 yards on the ground (just 4.0 YPA, with its longest run being 11 yards) and then 'exploded' vs the Packers by rushing for 285 yards (6.8 YPA). Mostert set a team playoff record with 220 yards and four TDs. Jimmy G directed a scoring drive on his first playoff possession but finished just 11 of 19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT vs Minnesota. He was no more than a 'spectator' in the win over Green Bay, going 6 of eight for 77 yards (no TDs or INTs).

KC has thrilled its fans in reaching this season's "ultimate" game. The Chiefs fell behind Houston 24-0 but then scored a TD on SEVEN consecutive possessions in a 51-31 win. They then fell behind Tennessee 10-0 and 17-7, before again taking control. KC scored 28 straight points to open a 35-17 lead and win, 35-24. Leading the way is the NFL's most exciting (best?) QB, Patrick Mahomes. His performances have been dazzling, as he's completed EXACTLY 23 of 35 passes in both wins, throwing for 615 yards with eight TDs and not a single INT. He's also been KC's leading rusher (106 yards / 7.1 YPA), including a SPECTACULAR 27-yeard TD scamper right before the half vs the Titans. RB Damien Williams has been acquitted himself quite well, rushing for 92 yards (three TDs) while adding seven catches and one TD. TE Kelce was a 'beast' vs Houston (10 catches for 134 yards and three TDs) but then took a 'backseat' to WRs Watkins and Hill vs Tennessee. Watkins caught seven passes for 114 yards and one TD, with Hill adding five catches and two TDs. KC's D struggled during the first part of the season but held opponents to just 11.5 PPG during the team's six-game winning streak to end the regular season. KC's defense was hit hard by Houston early but shut down the Texans in the second half, allowing just SEVEN points. It was deja vu all over again against Tennessee, as the Titans were also held to just seven second-half points. More notable, Titans RB Henry came into the AFC championship game averaging 196.0 YPG rushing (7.1 YPA) in his previous three games but KC completely shut him down, holding him to 69 yards on 19 carries (3.6 YPA).

Kansas City has won EIGHT straight games, all by SEVEN points or more, with its average winning margin being 16.1 PPG. Mahomes over Jimmy Garoppolo (a glorified game-manager) is a "no-brainer." Yes, San Francisco's running game is superb but the Chiefs are allowing just 3.8 yards per carry during their last six games plus Kansas City has limited long completions and the Niners' WRs leave a  lot to be desired (TE Kittle is the biggest threat). What's more, KC's pass rush has been greatly upgraded with the return from injury of premier DT Chris Jones and the late-season signing of veteran DE Terrell Suggs.

Mostert had a game for the ages against the Packers in the NFC championship game and NO WAY he comes ANYWHERE close to that kind of performance, here. I'm not going to 'beat up' on Jimmy G but c'mon, him vs Mahomes? The only QBs the 49ers faced who can be compared to Mahomes this season were Drew Brees, Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson. The Saints scored 46 points against the 49ers, the Falcons scored 29 points at San Francisco and won, while the Seahawks averaged 24 points and were inches away from a TD that would have given them a season sweep. Garoppolo doesn’t have the arm, touch, mobility and craftiness Mahomes possesses. Garoppolo also doesn’t have the speed and depth the Chiefs have at the WR position. This could get 'ugly' for San Francisco.

Good luck...Larry

My NFL 10* Playoff Game of the Year is on the GB Packers at 6:40 ET.

If the San Francisco 49ers can beat the Green Bay Packers on Sunday, they will become only the SECOND team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl a year after losing at least 12 games.The Niners lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the year in Week 3 of the 2018 season and 'limped' to a 4-12 record. However, the team is now ONE win away from joining the 1999 St Louis Rams who also went 4-12 the season before reaching AND winning Super Bowl XXXIV. That said, the Packers have a pretty good story themselves, as Packers opemend teh 2019 season off back-to-back losing seasons (7-9 in 2017 and 6-9-1 in 2018), for the first time since 1990 and 1991. At the start of the current season, Green Bay playing in the NFC championship game was only slightly more far-fetched than San Francisco doing so

These teams played earlier this season in Week 12 in San Francisco. Aaron Rodgers lost a fumble on Green Bay's first possession, setting up a two-yard TD drive that gave San Francisco the lead. The Niners then broke it open with long TD passes to Deebo Samuel late in the second quarter and to George Kittle in the third quarter of a 37-8 win. Rodgers threw for just 104 yards (career-worst 3.2 YPA) and got sacked five times. The loss left Green Bay at 8-3 but the Packers would end the regular season by winning their last FIVE games, allowing just 14.2 PPG to claim the NFC's No. 2 seed. The Niners were 10-1 after that win and went 3-2 the rest of the way, holding the Seahawks inches away from a TD in the fianl seconds of Week 17, claiming the NFC's top-seed. San Francisco's defense was dominant during the team's 7-0 start (11.0 PPG) but "worse than average" during team's last nine games, allowing 25.9 PPG.

However, San Francisco's defense humbled the vikings last weekend (Saturday), holding Minnesota to 147 total yards in a 27-10 win. Jimmy G directed a scoring drive on his first playoff possession and finished 11 of 19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT. San Francisco's running game ranked second to only Baltimore's in the regular season and controlled the game with 186 yards on the ground (just 4.0 YPA, with its longest run being 11 yards). Getting back to the San Francisco D, Minnesota was held to just seven FDs and was 2 of 13 on third downs plus 0-2 on fourth down tries. Green Bay played last Sunday and dominated Seattle in the first half, taking a 21-3 lead. The Packers led 28-10 in the late 3rd quarter but Russell Wilson NEVER gives up. Seattle cut it to 28-17 and then to 28-23, before missing a two-point try. Seattle only got the ball back ONCE after that (four plays) plus Rodgers converted two HUG third downs late, sealing the win.

These two franchises have combined for NINE Super Bowl titles and have a rich history when it comes to the playoffs. This will be their EIGHT meeting in the past 25 postseasons, three more than any other rivalry. In fact, the only other matchup to occur more often is Cowboys-Rams, which happened nine times. So here we are. I doubt anyone thinks the 49ers will rout the Packers again. Then again, maybe some do. Count me as one who DOES NOT!

Taking Jimmy G over Kirk Cousins is one thing but over Aaron Rodgers in an NFC title, while laying a TD? As of Friday afternoon, there were 7.5s galore. Rodgers had an off year, but threw for 4,002 yards (Jimmy G had 3,978) with 26 TDs and just four INTs (Jimmy G's ratio was 27-13). In the Division Round, Rodgers was 16-of-27 for 243 yards with two TDs and zero INTs (113.7 QB rating), while Jimmy G was 11-of-19 for 131 yards with one TD and one INT (74.7 rating). San Francisco's running game has better depth but Green Bay's Aaron Jones (1,084 rush yards, 474 receiving yards and 19 total TDs) will be the best RB of the field. Kittle's a terrific TE and gets the edge over the aging Jimmy Graham but the best WR on the field (by far!) is Davante Adams, who had eight catches for 180 yards (2 TDs) vs Seattle. San Francisco's D gets the edge but I don't think by much. Remember the Niners' second-half troubles and Green Bay's D finishing by allowing 14.2 PPG its final five games. Is shutting down Kirk Cousins proof it can be done to Rodgers/. Especially, when Rodgers not only has great motivation to "make up for" for his Week 12 'nightmare' plus he also has to realize his Super Bowl 'window' is closing.

One final reference to Green Bay's Week 12 loss at San Francisco. Discount that contest and know that the Packers were 8-0 SU  & ATS against EVERY other above-.500 team they faced in 2019. I'm grabbing the points and hoping we see a Super Bowl I rematch, Green Bay-Kansas City (note: I have NO play on Ten/KC on Sunday).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the GB Packers at 6:40 ET.

The 13-3 Green Bay Packers rebounded from 6-9-1 season in 2018 to earn the NFC's No. 2 seed. That gave teh Pack a first round bye and now a home game against the 5th-seeded Seattle Seahawks, who got past the injury-depleted Eagles last Sunday in Philadelphia, 17-9. Seattle win last Sunday gave them an NFL-best 8-1 record on the road, as do-everything QB Russell Wilson threw for 325 yards and a TD plus added a team-high 45 on the ground. Aaron Rodgers is nearly 10 years removed from his lone Super Bowl title but the 36-year-old feels Green Bay is poised to make another run at the championship.

Wilson was te driving force behind the Seattle offense all season, as he threw for 4,110 yards with 31 TDs and just six INTs (106.3). He was backed by a strong running game for most of the season (137.5 YPG ranked 4th) but one-by-one, Seattle RBs got hurt and last Sunday, Homer and Lynch ran for just 19 yards on 17 carries. Lockett was Wilson's favorite target during the season (82 catches / 12.9 YPC / 8 Tds but Sunday it was Metcalf (58 catches / 15.5 YPC / 7 TDs), who was the star. The second-round WR set an NFL postseason rookie record with 160 yards receiving on seven catches, including a 53-yard TD in the third quarter. "It was fun and it was scary at the same time. The way the season's been going, this team, you know I didn't want this to be our last time playing football," the 22-year-old said. Seattle's defense is no longer referred to as "the Legion of Boom," as it allowed 24.9 PPG (22nd) but the D held Philly to just three FGs and 282 total yards, while getting SEVEN sacks!

Rodgers was NOT great in 2019 but he did top 4,000 yards (4,002) and had 26 TDs compared to just FOUR interceptions. RB Aaron Jones had a breakout season, rushing for 1,084 yards (4.6 YPA / 16 TDs) plus caught 49 passes for 474 yards with three TDs. WR Adams played in just 12 games but led the way with 83 catches. FIVE more players caught between 34 and 49 passes, as Jones led that group while TE Jimmy Graham had just 38 receptions in 2019 to mark his lowest total since his rookie year in 2010. The Green Bay offense was middle-of-the-pack all season, averaging 23.5 PPG (15th) on 345.5 YPG (18th). The defense more than held up its own, allowing 19.6 PPG (9th).

For all Seattle's road success this season, the Seahawks have lost EIGHT straight at Lambeau Field and are 1-9 all time in the Packers' stadium. Wilson is 0-3 as a starter at Lambeau with a passer rating of 60.4. Wilson has completed just 55 of 96 his passes (57.3%) for 604 yards with SIX interceptions and just three TDs. What's more, Seattle lost a heart-breaker at home on Dec 29 against the 49ers (could have won NFC West with a win) and then had to fly cross-country to play the Eagles in a Sunday afternoon playoff game. The Seahawks returned to the West Coast after that win and now flies to the Midwest to face Green Bay. That kind of traveling can take a toll. One more thing, the forecast calls for a kickoff temperature in the low 20s, but a potential winter storm is shaping up to arrive in the region Saturday night, bringing gusty winds and up to 10 inches of snow.NONE of this helps the Seahawks.

Good luck...Larry