My 9* Pac-12 Championship Game play is on USC at 8:00 ET.

When the pandemic-delayed Pac-12 Conference football season started, Oregon (AP preseason No. 9) and USC (AP preseason No. 17) were the favorites to reach the title game. Both schools were only able to play five games but while USC went 5-0 (with THREE "close calls''), Oregon finished 3-2, second in the Pac-12's North Division behind Washington (3-1). The Ducks were scheduled to play Washing at home on Dec 12 but a COVID-19 spike in the Huskies' program caused Washington to cancel that game. That left Oregon 'out in the cold,' with the Huskies set to play the Trojans on Friday night. However, the COVID situation in Seattle did NOT improve, so lo and behold, the Ducks will replace the Huskies in the championship game. What a year it's been.

This is Mario Cristobal's third season at Oregon, having led the Ducks to back-to-back bowls while going 9-4 and 12-2. Despite losing QB Herbert to the NFL, the Ducks' current QB Tyler Shough has been more than an adequate replacement, passing for 1,389 yards (277.8 YPG) with 11 TDs and four INTs plus running for 256 yards on 4.9 YPC with five TDs. RB Dye has a team-high 336 yards on 7.5 YPC plus his five receptions have averaged 40.8 YPC with three TDs. A trio of WRs have combined for 47 TDs. Oregon has a nice balance on offense, passing for 277.8 YPG and running for 189.2 YPG, while averaging 34.2 PPG. Defensively, the Ducks are allowing 28.0 PPG.

USC was once known by the nickname of "Tailback U" but no longer. This year's team is averaging a pathetic 109.2 YPG on the ground (3.5 YPC, which ranks 115th in the nation. QB Kedon Slovis has been the team-MVP, completing 70.3% while averaging 320.2. YPG through the air (1,601 yards in five games) with 15 TDs and just four INTs. He leads an offense averaging 35.2 PPG (23rd) and the defense has been sound, allowing 25.0 PPG (41st) on 395.0 YPG (56th). 

The Trojans had to rally and were lucky to beat the two Arizona schools to open the season, then beat Utah 33-17 and Washington St, 38-13. However, the "comeback kids" needed to work their 'magic' again last Saturday vs UCLA, rallying from an 18-point deficit to win 43-38. The Ducks opened the season 3-0 (ranked No. 15) but then dropped their last two games on the road; 41-38 to Oregon State and 21-17 to previously winless California. Oregon was No. 23 in the College Football Playoff rankings before its latest loss.

Here's the bottom line. One could argue that Oregon's been given a "second chance" and will make the most of it but I'm siding with the position that USC's Slovis has time and again, "come through in the clutch." How about five TD passes (four in the second half after USC fell behind 28-10) in the UCLA comeback? USC is 7-1 at home since the start of the 2019 season, losing only to Oregon last season (56-24!). Methinks the Trojans will remember that result and the price on this game on their home field gives them a GREAT chance to win and cover the modest impost. "Fight On!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Marshall at 7:00 ET.

UAB is back in the C-USA championship game for the THIRD straight year, becoming the first C-USA program to accomplish such a feat. The Blazers won 27-25 at MTSU in 2018 and then lost last year at FAU, 49-6. UAB will again be the road team in 2020, as it travels to Huntington, West Va to take on Marshall's Thundering Herd. The Blazers are 5-3 on the season, with their 3-1 conference record being good enough to win the West. UAB lost 37-34 (2 OTs) at La Tech on Oct 31 but didn't play again until its 21-16 win at Rice on Dec 12, clinching the school's third straight division title. Marshall knows MORE than a little about Rice, as the Thundering Herd (which also saw games canceled due to COVID issues) was 7-0 when it hosted Rice on Dec 5 and shockingly lost 20-0 as a 24 1/2-point favorite. Marshall won the East with a 4-1 conference mark. Marshall has played in two previous C-USA title games, losing to Rice (there's that team again!) in 2013 but winning the following season against La Tech.

Tyler Johnson began the season as UAB's starting QB but after two games, suffered an injury to his non-throwing shoulder that kept him out indefinitely. He was replaced by Lucerno who was not very effective, completing just 54.1 percent with seven TDs and eight INTs. Johnson played in UAB's Oct 31 loss to La Tech and then started in the 21-16 win at Rice, completing 9 of 18 for two TDs and zero INTs plus ran for 41 yards. He was UAB's leading rusher in that game, because RB Spencer Brown (740 yards on 4.7 YPC with 10 TDs) did not play. His status is questionable for this one. UAB averages 29.3 PPG but its defense has led the way all season, allowing 22.5 PPG (33rd) on 318.9 YPG (145).

However, when one speaks of defense, Marshall is right on the tip of everyone's tongue. The Marshall defense has been special, as it has yet to allow more than 20 points in a game. The stunning 20-0 loss to Rice a few weeks ago was the first time all season the defense allowed more than 17 points. The team's "stop unit" does just that, ranking second in the nation against the run (73.0 YPG), second in total defense (253.9 YPG) and No. 1 in scoring D (11.4 PPG). RB Brenden Knox ran for 1,397 yards and 11 TDs in 2019 (13 games) and in eight games so far in 2020, has 820 yards on 4.9 YPC with 9 TDs. Freshman QB Grant Wells is the franchise guy to build around. He entered the game with Rice  averaging 279 YPG passing with 16 TDs and just four INTs in 192 attempts. However, he 'blew up' against the Owls, getting intercepted FIVE times while throwing for just 165 yards.

Oftentimes when teams get off to long winning streaks to open a season and finally lose, they DON'T bounce back like many expect them to. However, this is different, as Marshall has had two weeks to 'stew' over its loss plus is at HOME with an opportunity to win its first C-USA title since 2014 and head to its bowl with a chance to finish this pandemic-riddled season at 9-1. That would be quite an accomplishment.

Marshall was 11-1 SU at home heading to the Rice game since the start of 2019 and while UAB has been a great home to since 2018 in going 21-1 SU, the Blazers are just 9-13 SU on the road in that same span. The point spread is more than fair (and manageable) for the homestanding Herd, who 'Thunder' to a double digit win.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Va Tech at 8:00 ET.

The Virginia Cavaliers (5-4 / 4-4 ACC) are riding a four-game winning streak and haven't lost since Oct. 24 entering Saturday night's Commonwealth Cup battle in Blacksburg, Va. In contrast, the Va Tech Hokies (4-6 / 4-5 ACC) enter on a four-game losing streak and haven't won since Oct. 31. This will be the 102nd meeting of a series dating back to 1895 and was originally scheduled for Sep 19 but COVID-19 issues in the Hokies' program forced the postponement to this date.

Bronco Mendenhall spent 11 years as BYU head coach, leading the Cougars to 11 bowls during his tenure. He took the Virginia job in 2016 and flopped,' going 2-10 his first season. However, he righted the ship quickly, by following with THREE straight bowl berths. The 2019 season was special, as he led the Cavs to their first victory over Virginia Tech after fifteen consecutive losses in their rivalry, capping a 9–3 regular season and that secured the program's first Coastal Division title and a berth in the 2019 ACC Championship Game and 2019 Orange Bowl.

Justin Fuente used back-to-back seasons of 10-3 and 9-3 (2014 and 2015) at Memphis to land the Va Tech job on November 29, 2015 He replaced the retiring Frank Beamer and in his first season in Blacksburg, Fuente led the Hokies to a 9-3 regular season record and a trip to the ACC Championship, representing the Coastal division, The Hokies defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks 35-24 in the 2016 Belk Bowl, overturning a 24-0 deficit at halftime and winning three consecutive bowl games for the first time in the program's history. Virginia Tech finished the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches Poll. However, while Fuente's led the Hokies to bowl games in each of the last three seasons, Va Tech has lost each one.

Brennan Armstrong has taken over at QB for Virginia and has thrown 16 TDs and nine INTs, while also leading the team in rushing with 529 yards (5 TDs). He's led the Cavs to four straight wins, completing 65.3% with nine TDs and three INTs. He's off back-to-back games with more than 400 yards of total offense, passing for a career-high 383 yards and four TDs vs Abilene Christian on Nov 21 and then rushed for a career-high 130 yards and a TD in last Saturday's 43-32 win over Boston College. RB Kemp is the team's top receiver (58 catches) and TE Poljan has 33 catches and five TDs. WR Davis has played in just six games but averages 25.9 YPC on his 17 receptions with five TDs. The defense. The offense is averaging 32.4 PPG but the defense is allowing 29.2.

Va Tech QB Hendon Hooker exited last Saturday's 45-10 loss at Clemson, experiencing muscle spasms due to temperatures in the low 30s. However, by Monday he was feeling MUCH better and is expected to be just fine. He's completing 65.3% for 1,339 yards with nine TDS and five INTs, plus adds 620 rushing yards on 5.2 YPC with nine TDs. He's joined by RB Herbert, who has 1,020 yards on 7.6 YPC with seven TDs. Va Tech averages 30.9 PPG but allows 33.8.

At first blush, UVa coming in on a four-game winning streak while averaging 43.3 PPG would seem like the obvious choice against a Va Tech team on a four-game slide. UVa is looking for its first five-game winning streak since 2007 but the Hokies own a HUGE revenge motive. The Cavaliers snapped a 15-game losing streak to the Hokies with a 39-30 win last season in Charlottesville when it scored nine points in the final 1:23 with a 48-yard FG and a recovery of a Virginia Tech fumble in the end zone. Va Tech head coach Justin Fuente is on the hot seat with a 37-26 record since taking over in 2016 and with Va Tech's loss dropping them to 46, the Hokies are guaranteed to end the 2020 season with a losing record for only the second time since 1992! This will truly be Va Tech's 'bowl game." I'm on the Hokies.

Good luck...Larry

 My 10* Rivalry Game of the Month is on USC at 7:30 ET.

USC is 4-0 and ranked 15th (CFP) and 16th (AP) as it tries to secure a spot in the Pac-12 Conference championship game when the Trojans take on crosstown rival UCLA (3-2) in the Rose Bowl. Colorado hosts Utah at 12 noon ET (7 1/2 hours before this game kicks) and if the Buffs win, USC will NEED to beat UCLA to win the Pac 12 South. USC put itself in position to play for the conference championship by beating visiting Washington State 38-13 last Sunday night. That game was pushed back two days following a small COVID-19 outbreak on the USC team, a situation that initially forced the Trojans to cancel their game against No. 21 Colorado on Nov. 28. The schedule adjustment shrank USC's window to prepare for UCLA. As for the Bruins, they are coming off a 25-18 win at Arizona State last Saturday night, their first win in the month of December since the 2013 Sun Bowl (think about that, for more than a minute or two!). The victory also lifted UCLA's record above .500 for the first time since a win on Oct. 21, 2017, had them at 4-3 (yet another thought to ponder!).

USC was once known by the nickname of "Tailback U" but no longer. This year's team is averaging a pathetic 111.5 YPG on the ground (3.6 YPC). QB Kedon Slovis leads this year's team, completing 72.1% while averaging 314.3 YPG through the air (1,257 yards in four games) with 10 TDs and just two INTS in 165 attempts. He leads an offense averaging 33.3 PPG (30th) and the defense has been sound, allowing 21.8 PPG (26th) on 356.5 YPG (34th). UCLA benefited last weekend with the return of QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (57.8% completions for 691 yards with 8 TDs and 2 INTs) who was among nine Bruins to miss two games because of COVID-19 concerns. He completed 18 of 24 passes for 192 yards and a TD against Arizona State. He also rushed for 49 yards and a score (218 rush yards on 5.0 YPC and 3 TDs on the season). It seems as if USC's running game has moved to Westwood, as the Bruins are averaging 2267.6 YPG on the ground (16th) on 5.6 YPC. A quick look at the team's defense shows UCLA allowing 24.8 PPG but one must CLOSER!

Let me do just that. First off, UCLA's losses are to now-No. 21 Colorado, when the Bruins allowed 48 points and to then-No. 11 Oregon, allowing 38 points. UCLA's three wins have come over the two Arizona schools (a combined 0-6 entering Friday's Territorial Cup meeting) and 1-3 Cal. The Bruins allowed just 12.7 PPG against that trio, which have a combined 1-9 record. Then there is UCLA head coach Chip Kelly who had a four-year record of 46-7 (.868) at Oregon but since moving on to the NFL and now UCLA, seems to have left his "Genius" moniker in Eugene. Kelly's teams are a combined 38-54 (.413) post-Oregon, including 10-19 (.345) at UCLA.

Anyone really trust "Sir Chip" in a big game like this? As for USC, it needed two TDs in the final three minutes to escape in its season opener 28-27 against ASU and then scored with 25 seconds left to edge Arizona 34-30. However, the Trojans have won 33-17 over Utah and 38-13 over Washington St, since. A win will give the Trojans a 5-0 record for the first time since 2006, when they started 6-0, plus propel into the Pac 12 title game against Washington, a team which just had to cancel its game with Oregon on Saturday due to COVID issues. A win there and USC will play in the Rose Bowl at 6-0. USC has won 16 of the last 21 meetings against UCLA, so expect the Trojans to 'ring' the Victory Bell at the end of Saturday's game!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Miami-Fl at 3:30 ET.

It's a battle of ranked ACC teams from Miami, Fl on Saturday, as No. North Carolina (7-3, 6-3 in the ACC) visits No. 10 Miami-Fl (8-1, 7-1 in the ACC). The Tar Heels are off a 49-9 home win last Saturday over Western Carolina, while Miami routed Duke 45-0 last Saturday, despite having 15 players out due to injuries, coronavirus and other issues. The Tar Heels lost 31-17 at home to No. 2 Notre Dame back Nov 27 but get a chance at another top-10 here against the Hurricanes, who they beat last year 28-25 at Chapel Hill with a late TD.

North Carolina opened 3-0 and rose to No. 5 in the AP poll but were then shocked 31-28 at Florida St, a team whose only other win this season has come over Jacksonville St. QB Sam Howell beat Miami as a freshman last year and is having an excellent sophomore season, completing 68.8% for 3,129 yards with 26 TDs and just six INTs. Two RBs share the ball-carrying duties and BOTH should top 1,000 yards on the season. Carter has 937 yards for 937 yards (7.1 YPC) with seven TDs and Williams has 904 yards (6.7 YPC) with 16 TDs plus has three receiving TDs among his 23 catches. WRs Brown (51 catches on 18.3 YPC with 8 TDs) and Newsome (46 catches / 13.1 YPC / 5 TDs) are Howell's main targets. North Carolina averaged 41.1 PPG but allows 28.6 YPG.

Houston transfer D'Eriq King ranks third in the ACC -- behind only Howell and Clemson's Trevor Lawrence -- in total offense (311.2 yards per game), passing for 2,334 yards with 20 TDs and only four INTs, while rushing for 467 yards and four more TDs. He has fulfilled his reputation as a dual threat. RB Harris leads with 567 yards on 5.2 YPC with eight TDs. King has a bevy of targets with a trio of WRs combining for 102 catches and 10 TDs, while both TEs have four TD catches each, combining for 40 receptions. Miami can't quite match North Carolina's offensive punch (averages 34.9 PPG) but is the much better defensive team, allowing 22.0 PPG on 366.2 YPG.

Speaking of the Miami D, despite missing five key defensive players against Duke, Miami forced FIVE turnovers. A win here and a win next weekend vs Ga Tech and Miami will cap off a 10-1 regular season, which will earn a MAJOR bowl bid. The home team has dominated this series by going 7-1 ATS and with MUCH to play for, expect Miami to avenge last season's three-point loss.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Colorado at 12:00 ET.

Note: The game was originally scheduled for Friday night. It was moved to take the place of the Michigan-Ohio State game, which was canceled because of COVID-19 issues within the Wolverines' program. The Utah-Colorado game will start at 12:05 p.m. ET, which is 10 a.m. local time. No COVID issue regarding these teams.

The Utah Utes and the Colorado Buffaloes conclude their respective abbreviated Pac 12 seasons with this game in Boulder. Utah's Kyle Whittingham was working under Urban Meyer at Utah back in 2004, a season in which the Utes went 12-0. Meyer left for the University of Florida and Whittingham was offered the head coaching job at Utah and also the head coaching job at his alma mater, BYU. He chose Utah and this is his 16th season as the school' head coach. He took Utah to six straight bowl games beginning in 2005, then came back-to-back 5-7 records. However, in 2014, he began another stretch of six straight bowl appearances, including last year's 11-3 record. Only the 2008 team, which went 13-0, had a better one-year record. The Utes come to Boulder having played just THREE games in this "Season of COVID," winning for the first time last Saturday by holding on to beat Oregon St 30-24.

Colorado wasn't expected to do much this year after head coach Mel Tucker was hired away by Michigan State and his replacement, Karl Dorrell, had no spring practice to work in a new QB. Dorrell was head coach at UCLA from 2003 to 2007 and led the Bruins to FIVE bowl appearances in five seasons, although he did not coach in the fifth after he was fired in December 2007. Truth is, his overall record at UCLA was only 35–27. Dorrell was named the 27th full time head coach at Colorado when Mel Tucker bolted after one season for Michigan St. Tucker had taken over from Mike MacIntyre, so Dorrell is Colorado's THIRD head coach in as many seasons. With ZERO expectations, the Buffs have gone 4-0 and have a chance to win the South Division and earn a spot in the Pac-12 title game with a win here and a USC loss at UCLA on Saturday. If both Colorado and USC win (or lose), USC would win a tiebreaker with one more Pac 12 win than the Buffs.

Utah QB Bentley is averaging only 163 YPG through the air with three TDs and four INTs. Freshman RB Ty Jordan ran for 167 yards and a TD in the Utes' 30-24 win over Oregon State last Saturday, a week after a costly fumble in a loss at Washington (more later). Utah has just one player with more than seven receptions through three games and that's TE Kuithe, who has 16 but averages 7.6 YPC and had not caught a TD pass. Utah's defense allowed just 15.0 PPG on 269 YPG last season but with just TWO returning starters, has allowed 25.0 PPG on 346.3 YPG.

Colorado fell behind Arizona 13-0 by the early second quarter last Saturday but shut out the Wildcats the rest of the way for a 24-13 win. RB Jarek Broussard. Broussard has rushed for 733 yards (6.4 YPC) in four games, with 301 coming in last week's win at Arizona. He was named the Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season. Broussard (183.3 YPG) is ahead of Rashaan Salaam's four-game total when the late Colorado tailback won the 1994 Heisman Trophy. QB Nagy did throw two INTs vs Arizona but has been steady through four games with 742 yards passing and 179 yards rushing (five rushing TDs). The Buffaloes moved into this week's AP poll at No. 21 this past Sunday for the first time since 2018 and Tuesday night was also ranked No. 21 in the latest CFP standings.

The Utes have lost 33-17 to USC and then 24-21 to Washington, after taking a 21-0 lead at the half. The team's 30-24 win against Oregon St is hardly a 'buy' sign. Meanwhile. Colorado's beaten UCLA at home, Stanford on the road and San Diego St at home, before its comeback win over Arizona. The Buffs can't control what happens in the Rose Bowl with USC and UCLA but can and I believe WILL win this one, giving the Trojans plenty to think about before taking the field on Saturday. A win here, a USC loss to UCLA and a win in the Pac 12 championship game would mean a first-ever Rose Bowl appearance for the Buffs. That's a lot to take in. I'll be happy just to see them win Friday night.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on San Diego St at 7:00 ET.

Colorado St went to FIVE consecutive bowl games from 2013 through 2017 but back-to-back 39 and 4-8 seasons followed in 2018 and 2019. Calls for head coach Mike Bobo's firing gained steam throughout last season. Just over 12,000 people attended the final home game against Boise State, one of the Rams' worst home crowds since before Sonny Lubick's arrival with Bobo and CSU mutually agreeing to part ways just days later. Steve Addazio got the job, after being fired at BC. He did lead BC to SIX bowl appearances in his seven-year tenure but his teams never won more than seven games in a season and his career mark at the school ended at 44-44. The Rams have seen their last two games canceled and have played just THREE games to-date. Colorado St won 34-24 at home vs Wyoming but in two road games, has lost 38-17 at Fresno St and 52-21 at Boise St.

Brady Hoke is back coaching the Aztecs after Rocky Long retired after the 2019 season. He took over a program that had won 10-plus games in FOUR of the previous five years and has been to 10 consecutive bowl games! The Aztecs opened 3-1 but then lost 26-21 at Nevada on Nov 21. The team's game with Fresno St on Nov 27 was canceled early in the week and SDSU hastily arranged a game in Boulder against Colorado. The Buffs are a good team and the Aztecs lost 20-10. The defense was great last season, allowing 12.7 PPG on only 288.0 YPG and it hasn't been too far off those numbers in 2020 (16.2 PPG ranks 9th and 270.3 YPG ranks 3rd).

This marks SDSU's final home game of the season, as the Aztecs finish next Saturday at BYU (good luck in that one!). Lay the points here with the Aztecs.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Georgia Southern at 6:00 ET.

The 5-1 Florida Atlantic Owls of C-USA visit Paulson Stadium in Statesboro, Ga for a game with the 6-4 Georgia Southern Eagles. The game was originally scheduled to be played back on Sep 19 but the schools were able to reschedule. FAU lost head coach Lane Kiffin to Ole Miss after he led the Owls to an 11-3 season in 2019 and just two days after Lane Kiffin resigned, FAU announced the hiring of Willie Taggart. This marks Taggert's FOURTH different head coaching job since 2016 (USF, Oregon, FSU and now FAU). Chad Lunsford served as interim coach at Georgia Southern for the second half of the 2017 season following the firing and departure of Tyson Summers. The team finished that season 2-4 but he was awarded the head coaching gig on November 27, 2017. 10-3 and 7-6 seasons followed (including two bowl berths) and Lunsford had the Eagles at 6-2 before back-to-back road losses at Army (28-27) and to rival Georgia St (30-24).

Florida Atlantic's lone loss is to 7-0 Marshall (20-9 on the road) and has won FOUR in a row since over UTSA, Western Kentucky, FIU and UMass. Florida Atlantic doesn't overwhelm on offense, averaging 21.0 PPG (106th) on 330.5 YPG (113th). However, they have been stout on defense, allowing 11.2 PPG (2nd) on 293.0 YPG (7th). Georgia Southern's option attack averages 267.6 YPG on the ground (5th), as QB Werts is the team's leading rusher (649 yards) with three RBs chipping in between 447 and 625 yards. The offense is far from prolific (27.0 PPG ranks just 89th) but the defense has played well all season, allowing 23.0 PPG (29th) on 329.9 YPG (22nd).

FAU's four-game winning streak is far from impressive as the wins have come by the following scores; 24-3 over UTSA 24-3, 10-6 over Western Kentucky, 38-19 over FIU and 24-2 over UMass. Only UTSA owns a winning record (7-4). Western Ky is 4-6 plus FIU and UMass are a combined 0-9! Georgia Southern has lost to the SBC's two-best teams, by just TWO points (on a late FG) at ULL and by 28-14 at Coastal Carolina, in a game that was tied 14-14 midway through the fourth quarter. Georgia Southern is 5-0 at home this season, after going 5-1 each of the last two seasons. That is a 15-2 SU run and at this 'price,' Ga Southern is a bargain!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Coastal Carolina at 5:30 ET.

The College Football Playoff selection committee made it clear in each of its first two rankings that BYU's weak schedule was keeping it outside the top-10. The Cougars play as an Independent and had planned a 2020 schedule which included three Pac-12 teams, two Big Ten teams and one SEC team (it was being touted as the strongest in the program's storied history). However, BYU had to build a schedule from scratch when the Big Ten and Pac 12 postponed their respective seasons in August and the SEC decided to play a conference-only schedule. What remained was a slate that did not have any Power 5 schools. BYU's strength of schedule is currently No. 87 with only three wins against FBS teams over .500. BYU's athletic director Tom Holmoe felt a sense of urgency to try to quickly schedule another quality opponent and an "incredible opportunity" arose this week, when BYU was able to replace Liberty as Coastal Carolina's opponent on Saturday, after COVID-19 issues prevented the Flames from playing in the game. The game was put together at warp speed, as Holmoe said he first learned of Liberty's precarious position on Wednesday morning but it wasn't until Thursday morning that the game became official. 9-0 BYU is No. 8 in the AP poll but just 13th in the CFP standings and 9-0 Coastal Carolina is No. 14 in the AP and No. 18 in CFP. BYU can't possibly expect that a win at Coastal Carolina will vault them into 'Final Four' territory but a win and then a win Dec 12 against San Diego St could earn them one of the more lucrative bowl bids. Win or lose, Coastal Carolina has already qualified for the SBC title game in which the Chanticleers will get a rematch of their 30-27 win Oct 14 at ULL. That sets the stage.

BYU head coach Kalani Sitake took over at Provo back in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, only the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6 again. Yes, the strength of BYU's schedule deserves to be taken into account but the 'eye test' reveals a team averaging 47.6 PPG (4th) on 538.3 YPG (4th), along with a defense allowing 13.9 PPG (4th) on 292.7 YPG (6th). QB Zach Wilson has been TERRIFIC, completing 74.3% for 2,724 yards with 26 TDs and just two INTS (his QB rating of 205.3 ranks second to only Alabama's Mac Jones). RB Allgeier is headed for a 1,000-yard season with 851 yards on 7.2 YPC with 11 TDs. Four players have 24 or more catches with WR Milne leading with 49 (6 TDs), and WR Romney leading with his 20.8 YPC average on 34 catches. TE Rex has 24 receptions but a team-high eight TD catches.

Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell was named interim head coach when head coach Joe Moglia took a medical leave of absence in 2017. The school announced on January 5, 2018 that Moglia had been medically cleared to return to full-time coaching and would reassume the head coaching position. However, Chadwell was formally introduced as the third all-time head coach at Coastal Carolina on January 18, 2019. Caldwell led the Chanticleers' to a 5-7 season in 2019, with their most notable win coming 12-7 at Kansas. The Chanticleers opened the 2020 season by returning to Lawrence and easily defeating the Jayhawks 38-23 back on Sep 12. They have NEVER looked back, winning at ULL and home to Appalachian St, the two schools which have met in the last two SBC title games. Red-shirt freshman Grayson McCall won the starting QB job for the Chanticleers and has been excellent. He's completing 67.2% for 1,747 yards with 20 TDS and just ONE interception, while rushing for 368 yards and five TDs, C.J. Marable ran for 1,095 yards (5.3 YPC) in 2019 but has amore modest 592 yards on 5.0 YPC with eight TDs through nine games this season. WR Heiligh leads with 41 catches and eight TD grabs, while TE Likely has just 17 catches but averages 24.9 YPC with four TDs.

The storyline of this game seems to be just how much a BYU win will help the Cougars with the CFP committee. However, I can't help but believe Coastal Carolina is asking, "What about us?" BYU athletic director Tom Holmoe is calling this game at Coastal Carolina an "incredible opportunity." That could be true but I'm reminded of that old proverb that states, "Be careful what you wish for!" The Coastal Carolina 'eye test' reveals a team averaging 38.7 PPG on 448.3 YPG, while allowing 16.8 PPG on 322.2 YPG. I'm 'jumping all over' Coastal Carolina with all those points!

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* PERFECT STORM is on NC State at 4:00 ET.

7-3 North Carolina State (6-3 ACC) plays its final game of the season on Saturday against 3-5 Georgia Tech (3-4 ACC). NC State is still smarting from last year's 28-26 defeat to the Yellow Jackets in Atlanta, when an injury-depleted Wolfpack team fell behind 21-3 and saw their comeback fall short when a final two-point conversion failed. Surprisingly, NC State has not beaten Ga Tech in Raleigh since 2000!

Georgia Tech took the field last Saturday having not played since Oct 31 and ended a three-game losing streak with a 56-33 win over Duke. QB Sims set career highs for rushing yard (108) and TD passes (three) becoming the first freshman in the country to run for at least 100 yards and pass for at least three TDs in a game this season. That outstanding effort still leaves Sims with a modest 58.8% completion rate, just 1,492 passing yards and with as many INTs (11) as TD passes (11) on the season. He's added 385 rushing yards with four TDs. The Yellow Jackets average 193.6 YPG on the ground (39th) but the team's leading rusher (Gibbs) has just 460 yards. He also leads the team with 24 catches (12.6 YPC / 3 TDs). WR Camp has 22 catches for 14.5 YPC with three TDs and fellow wide-out Carter has 17 catches (14.4 YPC / 3 TDs). The Ga Tech defense is allowing 38.9 PPG which remains an issue.

Last year's starting QB Leary has been replaced by Bailey Hochman, who has thrown for 1,511 yards and 12 touchdowns in eight games. He passed for a career-high 313 yards and four TDs in the Wolfpack's most recent win, 36-29 at Syracuse. NC State has not run the ball as well as Ga Tech but does have two solid RBs in Knight (698 yards / 5.6 YPC / 8 TDs) and Person (576 yards / 4.6 YPC / 3 TDs). WRs Emezie and Thomas each have 36 catches, combining for 11 TDs. TE Angeline has 25 catches for 15.5 YPC with six TD catches. Like Ga Tech, the NC State defense is a negative, allowing 31.4 PPG.

NC State sits at 7-3, with ALL of its losses coming against ranked opponents. NC State has played FIVE ranked opponents in all, winning two of those games. NC State enters on a three-game winning streak with Hockman settling in at QB with seven TDs and three INTs during the streak. As for Ga Tech, let's note that all five of the team's losses have come by 17 or more points and here's a stat head coach Geoff Collins doesn't want you to hear. He was just 3-9 in his first season (2019) and has followed by going 3-5 in 2020. That's just SIX wins and following his first five wins (his sixth was last week vs Duke), Ga Tech has not just lost all FIVE but has also gone 0-5 ATS with an average margin of defeat of 30.4 PPG. Good enough for me!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Revenge Game of the Year is on Virginia at 3:30 ET.

Steve Addazio coached Boston College to SIX bowl appearances in his seven seasons but never won more than SEVEN games in any season. On December 1, 2019 following the conclusion of a 6-6 regular season, Boston College fired him (career record at BC was 44-44). Jeff Hafley was hired to be the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State and quickly established himself as one of the best recruiters in the country and was hired to be the head coach at Boston College after the firing of Addazio. Boston College is 6-4 (5-4 in the ACC) in Hafley's first season and The Eagles will play their final regular season game of the year Saturday at Virginia.

Bronco Mendenhall spent 11 years as BYU head coach, leading the Cougars to 11 bowls during his tenure. He took the Virginia job in 2016 and flopped,' going 2-10 his first season. However, he righted the ship quickly, by following with THREE straight bowl berths. The 2019 season was special, as he led the Cavs to their first victory over Virginia Tech after fifteen consecutive losses in their rivalry, capping a 9–3 regular season and that secured the program's first Coastal Division title and a berth in the 2019 ACC Championship Game and 2019 Orange Bowl. It was the program's first Orange Bowl bid since turning down an invite 68 years earlier (for the 1952 Orange Bowl) and only the third New Year's Six appearance of any Coastal Division member. It was also the Cavaliers' most prestigious bowl appearance since George Welsh led the 1990 team to the Sugar Bowl.

Boston College is off a 34-27 victory at home over Louisville last Saturday, despite starting QB Phil Jurkovec (left knee) and No. 1 RB David Bailey (upper body) to injuries. Backup QB Dennis Grosel came on and threw two fourth-quarter TDs in the win. Jurkovec is a Notre Dame transfer and has completed 61 percent of his passes for 2,558 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs. As for Grosel, who started seven games in 2019, he said "It's kind of like riding a bike. I did it last year, so I hopped right on and held on for the ride." Bailey leads BC's running game with a modest 503 yards and the Eagles only average 112.6 YPG on the ground (113th), averaging a pathetic 3.3 YPC. WR Flowers has 48 catches with seven TDs and TE Long 49 catches with four TDs. The BC defense allows 26.9 PPG, just under what the team's offense scores (27.4.

Armstrong has taken over at QB for Virginia and has thrown 15 TDs and eight INTs, while also leading the team in rushing with 399 yards (4 TDs). The Cavs' running game is not bad, averaging 163.8 YPG (50 YPG more than BC) plus RB Kemp is the team's top receiver (52 catches). TE Poljan has 30 catches and five TDs plus WR Davis, who has played in just five games, averages 26.7 YPC on his 14 receptions with five TDs. 

The Cavaliers are 0-6 all-time against the Eagles heading into Saturday's home finale in Charlottesville, including an 0-2 record at home and an 0-4 mark since Boston College joined the Atlantic Coast Conference in 2005. So why should UVa win here? Boston College has alternated wins and losses over its last nine games and is coming off a win last Saturday (see above). The status QB Jurkovec and RB Bailey is not clear but I'm 'ON' Virginia, regardless. Armstrong has led UVa to three straight wins, throwing eight TD passes and just two INTs (also added three rushing TDs plus 178 yards), as the Cavs have averaged 43.3 PPG. Virginia is 16-2 SU at Scott Stadium dating back to the start of the 2018 season. Revenge works well in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Appalachian St at 7:00 ET.

No. 20 ULL (8-1 / 6-1 SBC) visits Appalachian St (7-2, 5-1) on Friday night. Louisiana has already secured a spot in the conference championship game as the SBC-East champs, while Appalachian St's loss to Coastal Carolina (9-0 / 7-0) means it will not have a chance to defend its back-to-back SBC title game wins over ULL in 2018 and 2019.

Billy Napier accepted the head coaching job of the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns back on Dec 15, 2017, giving him his first job as a head coach of a college football team. His first season resulted with the Rajin' Cajuns winning the SBC-West and making a Cure Bowl appearance (lost to Tulane to finish 7-7). ULL won the West again last season and gave Appalachian St all it wanted in the SBC championship game (lost 45-38),before capping its season with a 27-17 bowl win over Miami-Ohio to finish 11-3. ULL opened the 2020 season by winning 31-14 at Iowa St as a two-TD underdog. That victory is arguably the biggest win in school history, as ULL beat a top-25 opponent on the road for the first time, having gone 0-26 against ranked foes away from home. ULL's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. ULL is fresh off last Saturday's 70-20 pounding of UL-Monroe, improving to 5-0 in road games.

Appalachian State will be forever-linked to its upset of Michigan back in 2007. There was no official pointspread on the game but App St's 34-32 win has been called the greatest upset in college football history. Appalachian State moved up to the FBS level in 2014 and has made quite an impression. Beginning in 2015, the Mountaineers have gone 54-12 (.818) and been to five straight bowls, winning all five. Scott Satterfield led App St through 2018 but then left for Louisville. Eliah Drinkwitz led the Mountaineers to a 12-1 record in 2019 and a second straight SBC championship but bolted to Missouri before the school's 31-17 win over UAB in the New Orleans Bowl. Shawn Clark coached App St in the bowl win and became the school's THIRD head coach in three seasons.

ULL has outstanding balance on offense, passing for 227.0 YPG and rushing for 217.3. QB Levi Lewis has thrown for 2,027 yards with 16 TDs and seven INTs, even though no player has more than 23 receptions. The running game is shared by Mitchell (656 yards / 6.0 YPC / 7 TDs) and Ragas (617 yards / 5.9 YPC / 7 TDs). The defense is solid, allowing 21.9 PPG (23rd) on 354.2 YPG (32nd). QB Zach Thomas is completing 66.7% for App St, throwing for 1,775 yards with 17 TDs and eight INTs, down from last year's numbers (2,718 yards with 28 TDs and six INTs). The Mountaineers are averaging 256.6 YPG on the ground (7th) on 5.6 YPC. Five players have more than 250 yards, led by Peoples (639 yards / 6.0 YPC / 6 TDs) and Harrington (595 yards / 5.6 YPC / 7 TDs). Like ULL, the team's receiving corps is very mediocre. However, the defense is VERY good, allowing just 18.0 PPG (15th) on 320.0 YPG (13th).

Here's the rub. ULL has had the better season but has already clinched a spot in the SBC championship game and will get a shot at Coastal Carolina, which is currently unbeaten. What's more, the Ragin' Cajuns are trying to avoid the distraction of Billy Napier's name surfacing as a potential candidate for higher-profile head coaching jobs. It's also impossible to ignore that as SBC foes, Appalachian St is 8-0 SU vs ULL. This marks Appalachian State's final home game of the season (has avoided COVID postponements) and would surely love to continue its domination of ULL. How about this? With ULL coming in as the AP's 20th-ranked team (No. 25 in the CFP), this marks the first time in school history that a top-25 team will come to Boone, North Carolina's Kidd Brewer Stadium. The Mountaineers are the small favorite and win "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Kansas St at 7:00 ET.

Chris Klieman was working for Craig Bohl at North Dakota St and when Bohl left to take the Wyoming head coaching job, Klieman took over and won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2014 and '15, lost in the semis in 2016, and then won back-to-back again in 2017 and 2018. He left to take over at Kansas St in 2019, having gone 69-6 in a five-year span with FOUR national championships. He's the 35th head coach in Kansas St history and replaced the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats went 8-5 in 2019, including a 48-41 win at Oklahoma, as a 23 1/2-point underdog. The Wildcats lost their season opener of 2020 at home to Arkansas St (35-31 as more than a two-TD favorite) but then beat the Sooners 38-35 as 28-point dogs, winning in Manhattan against Oklahoma for the first time since 1960. The win over the Sooners jump started a four-game winning streak but the Wildcats enter this game having lost THREE in a row, including last Saturday's 45-0 embarrassment at Iowa St.

The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field Sep 26 with a 47-14 home win over Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in that win over Kansas. However, Baylor has lost FIVE straight games! Both teams 'limp' into this contest in Waco.

K-State hasn't won since a 55-14 defeat of Kansas helped the Wildcats reach No. 16 in the AP poll but their third straight loss, that 45-0 whitewashing at Iowa State (worst loss in five seasons) has them just 4-4. "Hopefully they're a little ticked off," head coach Chris Klieman said Monday when asked about his players' attitudes. "In the same respect, our leaders are tremendous leaders. We had a good week of practice last week after a tough loss to Oklahoma State. I can promise you that we'll have a good week of practice this week after a tough loss to Iowa State. The Wildcats have had little consistency on offense, with true freshmen, QB Will Howard and RB Deuce Vaughn, showing promise at times but they've also been very unimpressive in other games. Howard was pulled last week after going 3 of 9 for 32 yards with one INT and is completing just 52.8% on the season with more INTs (six) than TD passes (five). Vaughn is the team's leading rusher (just 415 yards) for a team averaging only 124.6 YPG on the ground.

Baylor's QB Brewer led the Bears into the Big 12 championship game last season (lost 30-23 in OT to Oklahoma) and to a Sugar Bowl berth (lost 26-14 to Georgia. However, the Bears were 11-3 on the season and Brewer entered 2020 having thrown for over 3,000 yards the previous two seasons, with 40 TD passes and 16 INTs. He's completing 62.0% this season but for just 1,278 yards with a modest 11 TDs and six INTs. Baylor doesn't have a RB with even 200 yards rushing, as the Bears are averaging 107.8 YPG on the ground.

Baylor has been in every game, beginning with a double-overtime loss at West Virginia and most recently in a one-point loss at Texas Tech on Nov. 14. FOUR of its five losses have been on the road, so some home cookin' just might help. That said, how can't Kansas St bounce-back after that 'ugly' 45-0 loss at Iowa St? Chris Klieman is a winner (see above) and the Wildcats are 15-6, 71% ATS as a road dog the last four-plus seasons. Also, don't forget that Baylor's LONE win in 2020 is over Kansas, which is 0-7 SU and ATS in 2020 and 6-89 SU in Big 12 play since 2010! Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* PERFECT STORM Game of the Year is on Colorado at 5:00 ET.

The Pac 12 quickly followed the Big Ten by deciding to postpone fall football but just like the Big Ten, the Pac 12 reversed field. While the Big Ten resumed in late October, the Pac 12 didn't get started until early November, leaving even less room if COVID-19 interfered. COVID-19 HAS interfered and this game between Colorado and San Diego St is one of the few instances in which a team has been able to reschedule another game on short notice. Colorado will play at home in Boulder against San Diego State in a non-conference football matchup on Saturday, taking the place of the previously scheduled Colorado at USC football game that was declared a no contest earlier in the week.

Brady Hoke was SDSU's head coach back in 2009 and 2010, going 9-4 with a bowl win in 2010 that got him the job at Michigan. Year One went well, as the Wolverines went 11-2 including a Sugar Bowl win. However, Michigan slipped to 8-5 and 7-6 the next two seasons, ending each with a bowl loss. After a 5-7 record in his fourth season, he was fired. He's back as SDSU's head coach this season (made a two-game stop as interim head coach for the Vols when Butch Jones was fired at Tennessee, and he was named head coach in January of 2020 after Rocky Long announced his retirement from coaching. Hoke took over a team that had won 10-plus games in FOUR of the previous five seasons but this year's Aztecs are just 3-2. SDSU owns a strong running game (246.0 YPG on 5.3 YPC) but QB Baker (57.9% for 591 yards with three TDs and three INTs) is mediocre at best (I'm being kind). As DC at SD State, Hoke helped build an excellent defense and this year's unit is allowing just 15.4 PPG (8th) on 270.0 YPG (3rd). However, I have more to say about that, in my 'closing argument!'

Karl Dorrell is Colorado's head coach and in his first year at the school. He was head coach at UCLA from 2003 to 2007 and led the Bruins to FIVE bowl appearances in five seasons, although he did not coach in the fifth after he was fired in December 2007. Truth is, his overall record at UCLA was only 35–27. Dorrell was named the 27th full time head coach at Colorado when Mel Tuckers bolted after one season for Michigan St. Tucker took over from Mike MacIntyre, so Dorrell is Colorado's THIRD head coach in as many seasons. The Buffs have played just TWO games but have beaten UCLA 48-42 as a home dog and Stanford 35-32 as a road dog. QB Noyer is completing 63.6% for 512 yards with three TDs and one INT plus has run for 100 yards with three TDs. RB Broussard has 308 yards on 5.3 YPC with three TDs, as the Buffs run for 220.5 YPG with eight TDs. The defense has allowed 37.0 PPG but the SD St offense leaves MUCH to be desired!

Let's look closer at SD State, which has lost 28-17 at home to San Jose St (now 4-0) as a 10-point favorite and 26-21 at Nevada (now 5-0) as a 1 1/2-point favorite. The Aztecs' wins have come over 0-4 UNLV, 1-4 Utah St (won its first game on Thanksgiving) and 2-3 Hawaii. This game was put together quickly and both teams will have VERY little prep time but San Diego St is playing on the road for the FOURTH time in five weeks, Colorado takes the field for the first time since Nov 14. It's a PERFECT STORM for the Buffs!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Oddsmaker's Error is on Boston College at 4:00 ET.

Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had a six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinals were unranked in the AP's preseason poll but were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. That win saw Louisville rise to No. 18 in the AP poll but Louisville then lost FOUR in a row. The Cardinals are 2-2 in their last four games but the wins have come over 2-6 Florida St and 1-8 Syracuse

Steve Addazio coached Boston College to SIX bowl appearances in his seven seasons but never won more than SEVEN games in any season. On December 1, 2019 following the conclusion of a 6-6 regular season, Boston College fired him (career record at BC was 44-44). Jeff Hafley was hired to be the co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State and quickly established himself as one of the best recruiters in the country. He was hired to be the head coach at Boston College after the firing of Addazio. Boston College is 5-4 (4-4 in the ACC) in Hafley's first season and takes the field at home vs Louisville for the first time since a 45-31 loss to No. 2 Notre Dame on Nov 14.

Louisville QB Cunningham has completed 63.7% for 2,126 yards with 16 TDs and 11 INTS plus has run for 438 yards with six TDs. RB Hawkins has had a solid season (822 yards on 6.2 YPC with seven TDs) but WR Atwal, after catching 70 balls for 18.2 YPC with 12 TDs last season, has only 41 catches for 13.3 YPC with six TDs. BC's Joe Jurkovec has done a nice job at QB, throwing for 2,355 yards with 17 TDs and five INTs. He's done that despite the BC running game averaging only 104.2 YPG on 3.8 YPC.

I believe with Boston College that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts. The Eagles did a good job 'hanging around' vs Notre Dame (lost by 14 getting 13 1/2-points) and of course, led then No. 1 Clemson in "Death Valley" 26-13 at the half before losing 34-28. Boston College opened 2-0 but has since alternated wins and losses. With a off week between the team's loss to ND and this one, Boston College is DUE to win here and at this "bargain of a price," a "W" means a cover. Satterfield's second season at Louisville has been a HUGE disappointment and NOTHING changes here!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Stanford at 4:30 ET.

It's simply called the "Big Game." Cal and Stanford first met in 1892 and Stanford leads the all-time series 59-44-10. However, this year's version of the "Big Game" will be played on a Friday for the first time in its history. In another first, both schools enter winless, although that's clearly due to the fact that each school has played just TWO games.

David Shaw was named Stanford's head coach in January of 2011, being promoted after Jim Harbaugh left to become head coach of the NFL's San Francisco 49ers. From 2011 through 2018, Shaw led the Cardinal to EIGHT consecutive bowl games, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons. However, Stanford fell to 4-8 in 2019.  Justin Wilcox was named Cal's head coach in January of 2017 and the Bears finished just 5-7 in his first season. However, the Bears went 7–6 during Wilcox's second year in 2018, upsetting No. 15 Washington and defeating USC 15–14 at the Coliseum in Los Angeles to snap a 14-year losing streak to the Trojans. The Bears lost 10–7 in overtime to TCU in the 2018 Cheez-It Bowl. The Bears improved to 8–5 record in 2019, achieving their highest ranking since 2009 when they were ranked No. 15 after a 4–0 start to the season.. Maybe the biggest win of Wilcox's short tenure came when Cal beat Stanford 24-20 in the Big Game last November, for the first time since 2009!

Both teams have dealt with cancellations because of the coronavirus, the Cardinal losing out on playing last week's scheduled home game with Washington State while the Golden Bears had their home opener against Washington canceled on Nov 7. Stanford QB Davis Mills had to sit out the opener at Oregon because of a testing mistake but returned to complete 31 of 56 for 327 yards with one TD and not a single INT in his 56 attempts in a 35-32 home loss to Colorado on Nov 14. RBs Peat (114 yards on 10.4 YPC) and Jones (109 yards on 3.8 YPC but with three TDs) give the Stanford offense some balance, with the Cardinal averaging 405.YPG after two contests. However, the defense is a concern, allowing 35. points in each of the team's two games, so far.

Cal QB Garbers played well last season (1,712 yards with 14 TDs and just three INTs) but has thrown for a modest 433 yards in two games with as many INTs (three) as TDs (three). Cal's offense has NO balance, averaging a woeful 89.0 YPG on the ground on 2.7 YPC. Cal's averaging just 18.5 PPG on 303.5 YPG plus the Golden Bears D has been no better than Stanford's, allowing 32.5 PPG.

Cal took home the coveted "Axe" trophy last season for the first time in a decade but the Cardinal are 8-1 in the Big Game under 10th-year head coach David Shaw. Stanford senior offensive lineman Foster Sarell still feels the sting of last year's defeat. "The standard that's been set here, we just beat Cal," he said. "So losing to them it hurt me pretty good. ... We've got to reverse this deal." Both teams are vulnerable of the defensive side of the ball but Stanford is a MUCH better offensive team plus has not thrown a single interception in 82 pass attempts, while allowing just ONE sack plus has also lost just ONE fumble. "Revenge" from last season works perfectly in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on North Carolina at 3:30 ET.

8-0 Notre Dame owns the nation's longest winning streak at 14 in a row and comes off a bye week ranked No. 2 in both the current AP poll and the 1st CFP standings of the 2020 season. The Fighting Irish control their own destiny but as head coach Chip Kelly said, "There's a lot of work left for this football team." With three games remaining, Notre Dame (7-0 in the ACC) still has work to do to qualify for the ACC championship game. Clemson and Miami, both with one loss, are in the mix, while No. 25 North Carolina (6-2 all in the ACC) can stay in contention by defeating the Irish.

Notre Dame QB Ian Book has silenced any critics this season by completing 62.0% for 1,818 yards with 11 TDs and just one INT. He's added 364 yards on the ground (4.9 YPC) and six TDs. He'll take the field at Chapel Hill with a 28-3 record as Notre Dame's starting QB. RB Williams has 777 yards rushing on 5.7 YPC for a running game that averages 233.5 YPG. Notre Dame is averaging 462.1 YPG and 37.6 PPG (12th), which works well with a defense allowing just 16.6 PPG (11th).

However, Notre Dame's 462.1 YPG is about 100 YPG less than North Carolina's average of 563.4 YPG. The Tar Heels are averaging 43.1 PPG (10th) led by QB Howell, who completes 67.7% for 2,631 yards with 23 TDs and just six INTs. North Carolina averages 233.5 YPG on the ground (exact match of ND), led by the terrific RB duo of Williams (868 yards on 7.2 YPC with 15 TDs) and Carter (807 yards on 7.0 YPC with four TDs). The problem all season for Mack Brown's team is a defense allowing 30.8 PPG, two TDs more than Notre Dame's 'stop unit!'

Both teams last played on Nov 14, with Notre Dame following its 47-40 (2-OT) win over then-No. 1 Clemson by winning 45-31 at Boston College. That same day, North Carolina wiped out a 21-point second-half deficit to overcome visiting Wake Forest 59-53, as Howell passed for a school-record 550 yards. However, North Carolina's D allowed 606 yards in yielding those 53 points. However, I believe North Carolina can and WILL trade points with Notre Dame, as we saw Clemson backup Uiagalelei do just that by throwing for 439 yards without an INT in 44 attempts, AT South Bend no less! This marks North Carolina's final ACC regular season home game and I believe Notre Dame's perfect season ends right here! Take the points but expect an OUTRIGHT win, just like I called last weekend with Northwestern over Wisconsin. Home dog barks loudly once again!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Texas at 12:00 ET.

No. 15 Iowa State is 6-2 overall, including 6-1 in Big 12 play to sit atop the conference (Cyclones are 6-1 for the first time in program history). Iowa St heads to Austin on the heels of its impressive 45-0 win at home over Kansas State, while No. 20 Texas is 5-2 (4-2 in Big 12 play) is riding a three-game winning streak but hasn't played since Nov 7, as the Longhorns' Nov 21 game at Kansas was postponed to Dec 12 because of positive COVID-19 tests within the Jayhawks' program. I win by Iowa St all but assures the Cyclones a spot in the Big 12 championship game but note that if Texas wins its final three games against Iowa State, Dec 5 at Kansas State and the rescheduled game at Kansas, the Longhorns WILL clinch a berth in the Big 12 title game. Fair to say there is a lot on the line in this "high noon" showdown!

Iowa St's Brock Purdy threw for 3,982 yards with 27 TDs and nine INTs last season but hasn't come close to matching those numbers in 2020 (1,713 yards with 13 TDs and six INTs). However, Iowa State boasts the NCAA's leading rusher in Breece Hall (1,169 / 6.5 YPC / 15 TDs), who has rushed for more than 100 yards in ALL eight games, a stat that's also No. 1 nationally. The Cyclones are averaging 34.4 PPG (31st() and allowing 23.4 PPG (30th) a pretty sweet 'daily double.'

Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has completed 147-of-250 passes (58.8 percent) for 1,834 yards and 22 TDs with just five INTs. He is also the team leader with 323 rushing yards and seven TDs. His 178 points responsible for are the second-most in the nation this season. Three RBs have combined for 765 yards, as Texas averages a respectable 167.3 YPG on the ground, averaging 4.5 YPC. The Texas offense is producing 40.4 PPG (15th) but its defense allows 29.7 PPG (67th).

Here's the bottom line. Iowa State hasn't won in Austin since 2010 and has beaten Texas just THREE times in 17 all-time games. Iowa State hasn't won a conference title since 1912 (does the Missouri Valley championship really count?) and has NEVER played in a conference championship game. Playing Iowa St when it has to WIN to cover here in Austin, makes NO sense. "The Eyes of Texas are upon me!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekend Wipeout Game of the Month is on NC State at 7:30 ET.

The Liberty football program was competing in Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) but announced it would start a transition to the top level of NCAA football in July 2017. The Flames became a provisional FBS member in 2018, and became a full FBS member with bowl eligibility in 2019. Hugh Freeze 'exploded' on the scene when he led Arkansas St to a 10-2 record in his first season as a head coach back in 2011. He quickly 'jumped ship' to Ole Miss and led the Rebels to four straight bowl appearances (3-1), including his 2015 team going 10-3 after a Sugar Bowl win (Rebels finished 10th in the final AP poll. However, trouble was brewing in Oxford over recruiting and academic violations committed under both Freeze and his predecessor, Houston Nutt. After a 5-7 season in 2016, he was let go. He was named head coach of the Liberty Flames football team on December 7, 2018 and in his first season Liberty went 8-5, including a 23-26 Cure Bowl win over Ga Southern. This year's team is 8-0 and entered the AP top-25 for the first time in school history back on Nov 1. The Flames will visit NC State on Saturday, ranked No. 21 in the latest poll.

Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters returned on offense in 2020, so it was expected that NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) would significantly improve in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18). NC State's offense has improved (up to 33.5 PPG) but its defense allows 33.9 PPG. The Wolfpack welcome the Flames to Carter-Finley Stadium with a 5-3 record.

Liberty is led by dual-threat QB Malik Willis who has completed 67.8% for 1,645 yards with 15 TDs and just ONE interception. He is also the team's leading rusher with 700 yards on 7.1 YPC with nine TDs. Three RBs chip in between 370 and 534 yards, giving the Flames a running game averaging 254.5 YPB on 5.7 YPC. Four WRs have between 15 and 10 receptions, while 10 different players have caught TD passes. Liberty's defense is allowing 22.1 PPG, plenty good enough when the offense is averaging 40.5 PPG (Flames are 6-2 ATS).

Devin Leary was the returning QB for NC State but had COVID issues early on and then a broken leg ended his season. Bailey Hockman (started early in the season for Leary) has again taken over and in the last two games, a 44-41 loss to Miami-Fl and a 38-22 win over Florida St, he's thrown for 513 yards with five TDs and two INTs. Anytime your quarterback is playing well, I don't care what level of football you're playing, you've got a chance to be really good," head coach Doeren said. "He's played at a high level for two weeks, so we're very excited." Doeren also had to be happy with WR Thayer Thomas' career-high 11 catches and 135 yards with two TDs against FSU. The running game produces about half of what Liberty does (133.8 YPG on 3.7 YPC) and remember that Wolfpack D is allowing 33.9 PPG.

Hugh Freeze said it's important to stay the course, realizing that Liberty might be a targeted team. "Just don't change. Don't change anything," he said. "Remember why you're having the success." That said, SEVEN of Liberty's eight wins have come over two FCS schools, as well as 3-6 Western Ky, 0-4 FIU, 2-8 UL-Monroe, 1-7 Syracuse and 2-6 Southern Miss. The team's "marquee win" has come over 4-4 Va Tech 38-35 in a 'miracle' finish. Tech has been ravaged by COVID-19 problems and was a 17-point favorite in that game. Liberty's perfect season ends right here!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Northwestern at 7:30 ET.

Paul Chyrst was hired at Wisconsin in 2015, after leading Pitt to three straight bowls from 2012-14 but note his overall record was only 19-19. He led the Badgers to FIVE straight bowl games, winning the first four, before losing 28-27 to Oregon in last season's Rose Bowl. His overall record with Wisconsin is 52-16 (.765) entering 2020. Pat Fitzgerald played at Northwestern and was an assistant coach from 2001-05 until his promotion to head coach after the unexpected death of Randy Walker in June 2006. He was just 10-14 in his first two seasons but then led the Wildcats to NINE bowl in the next 12 years, winning 10 games in 2012, 2015 and 2018. Northwestern fell to just 3-9 last season but the Wildcats are off to a 40-0 stat in the Big Ten in 2020, for the first time since 1996.

Wisconsin expected that RB Jonathan Taylor (2,003 rushing yards in 2019) would leave a year early for the NFL but Paul Chryst couldn't have planned for the loss of QB Jack Coan (69.6% / 2,727 yards / 18 TDs and just five INTs in 2019) to a foot injury on Oct 10. However, redshirt freshman Graham Mertz got the start on Oct 23 vs Illinois and completed 20 of 21 passes for 248 yards with five TDs and no INTs in the Badgers 45-7 rout. Then came a COVID-19 outbreak that included both Mertz and head coach Chryst. Wisconsin's next two games were canceled but the Badgers returned to play last Saturday at Michigan and routed the Wolverines 49-11. Mertz was pretty average vs Michigan (12 of 22 for only 127 yards with two TDs and zero INTs) but Wisconsin ran all over Michigan (341 rushing yards on 6.7 YPC) and after two early INTs by the defense set up two quicks TDs, the game was never in doubt.

Northwestern QB Ramsey has been OK but hardly special (65.8% for 723 yards with six TDs and four INTs). The running game averages 174.0 PPG, almost 100 yards less than Wisconsin's 261.5 YPG on 5.0 YPC.  In the first five seasons of the "Chryst era" at Wisconsin, his 'stop units' have allowed 13.7, 15.6, 13.9, 22.6 and 16.9 PPG. It's been just two games in 2020 but Wisconsin is No. 1 in scoring D (9.0 PPG) and No. 1 in total D (218.5 YPG). That said, don't dismiss the Northwestern D, which is allowing 14.0 PPG (7th) on 301.8 YPG (4th).

I'm still not quite sure how good Wisconsin really is because Illinois is an awful team and Harbaugh's Michigan team is a joke! How good is Mertz, really? Northwestern's graduate transfer Peyton Ramsey had his best game for the Wildcats, throwing for three TDs and 212 yards at Purdue and history tells us that the Wildcats have been especially successful against the Badgers at home, winning FIVE of the past six matchups at Ryan Field. This game has earned the title of a de facto Big Ten championship semifinal, with the Wildcats (4-0) and Badgers (2-0) tied for first place in the division and the winner controlling its own destiny to play next month for the conference title at Indianapolis. Can the Wildcats pull the upset? I thinks so but will be SURE to take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Revenge Rout is on UCF at 3:30 ET.

Luke Fickel was an assistant at Ohio St from 2002-16 but on December 10, 2016, was named as the 39th head coach of the University of Cincinnati, taking the place of the resigning Tommy Tuberville. Fickell's Bearcats went just 4-8 in his first season but 2018 would be a historic turnaround for the program, as Cincy finished with an 11-2 record and a 35-31 victory in the Military Bowl over Va Tech. Fickell was named AAC Coach of the Year for the 2018 season, which was only the third 11-win season in UC history. He led the team to another 11-win season in 2019. The Bearcats reeled off NINE straight wins after falling to Ohio State in the second game of the year but fell two straight weeks to Memphis, in the final regular season game and in the conference championship game. However, for the second straight year, Cincinnati won its bowl game over an ACC team, crushing Boston College 38-6 in the Birmingham Bowl. The Bearcats opened the 2020 season ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and at 7-0 are up to No. 7 as Cincinnati begins a three-game road stretch that will determine the Bearcats' conference, bowl and even potential playoff fate. It starts with Saturday's game in Orlando against unranked but dangerous 5-2 UCF. Josh Heupel was named head coach of the UCF Knights on December 5, 2017, replacing the departing Scott Frost, who had led UCF to a perfect 13-0 season in 2017. Heupel continued the 'magic' in 2018, as UCF took a 12-0 record (AND a 25-game winning streak) into its Sugar Bowl game with LSU, where the Tigers snapped that win streak with a 40-32 victory (coming out party for Joe Burrow). UF followed with a 10-3 season in 2019 but sits a more modest 5-2 entering this game.

Cincy routed Austin Peay 55-20 to open the season and then had comfortable but routine wins over Army (24-10) and South Florida (28-7) in the second and third games of the season. However, the Bearcats have stepped up the pace by averaging a scoring margin of 46.0-12.5 PPG in wins over SMU, Memphis, Houston and East Carolina. QB Desmond Ridder has posted two triple-digit rushing games in running for 398 yards and nine TDs in that four-game span and completed 71.4 percent of his 105 pass attempts for 886 yards and eight TDs against only two INTs. He's completing 66.7% on the season for 1,483 yards with 14 TDs and six INTs, while ranking second on the team with 469 rushing yards (8.8 YPC and nine TDs). RB has 563 yards on 5.2 YPC with seven TDs, as Cincy averages 247.1 YPG on the ground on 6.5 YPC with 24 TDs. In allowing 12.4 PPG, Cincy ranks third in the nation for fewest points allowed. 

UCF opened 2-0 but then lost back-to-back games to Tulsa and Memphis. UCF led Tulsa 16-0 but lost 34-26 (Tulsa's won FOUR times this season when trailing by 14-plus points!) and let a 49-37 lead in the mid-fourth quarter slip away in a 50-49 loss to Memphis. UCF has rebounded to win THREE in a row, averaging 44.3 PPG. QB Gabriel is completing 63.3% for 2,774 yards with 23 TDs and just two INTs, while RBs Anderson (563 yards on 5.8 YPC and four TDs) and McCrae (532 yards on 5.4 YPC with seven TDs) lead a running game averaging 222.3 YPG. Williams (53 catches / 15.0 YPC / 8 TDs) and Robinson (41 catches / 20.0 YPC / 4 TDs) are both dangerous receivers. However, in allowing 28.7 PPG, the UCF defense is allowing more than TWICE as many PPG than Cincy's D.

"It's going to be huge," Bearcats head coach Luke Fickell said. "We're going to find out what we're really made of. ... That is going to be quite a stretch with the bullseye on our back and a lot of things that we want to be able to do. You know we've got to kind of focus in and be hungry and be humble in what we're doing and find a way to continue to grow." This will SURE be a test for the Bearcats, as UCF takes the field with an offense averaging 44.0 PPG on 619.1 YPG (No. 1 in the nation) plus has won 23 of its last 24 home games! What's more, UCF has a score to settle from last season's 27-24 loss at Cincinnati, when the Bearcats broke UCF's 19-game AAC winning streak. Now it's UCF's turn to pull the upset. Book it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Army at 12:00 ET.

Chad Lunsford served as interim coach at Georgia Southern for the second half of the 2017 season following the firing and departure of Tyson Summers. The team finished that season 2-4 but he was awarded the head coaching gig on November 27, 2017. 10-3 and 7-6 seasons followed (including two bowl berths) and here in 2020 his Eagles are 6-2, including 4-2 in the SBC (third in the East behind 5-0 Coastal Carolina and 4-0 Appalachian St). Georgia Southern steps out of conference play on Saturday to visit West Point for a game with Army.

Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, led the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018. However, 2019 was a HUGE disappointment for the Cadets of West Point. Army opened last season with a 'shaky' 14-7 win over Rice (as 23.5 favorites), extending its winning streak to 10 in a row. That streak was snapped the next week at Michigan but a 24-21 loss in OT at The "Big House" was hardly cause for concern. Army would win its next two games over UTSA (31-21) and Morgan St (52-21) but then the 'wheels came off.' Army would lose SEVEN of its final nine games, beating only sad-sack UMass (1-11 in 2019) and VMI, an FCS school. A crushing 31-7 to Navy was a fitting end to a dismal season. The 2020seaason has been a nice bounce-back, as Army enters this contest 6-2.

Georgia Southern comes into this contest on a THREE-game winning streak after a 40-38 home win over Texas State last Saturday. QB Shai Werts leads an offense that depends on its running game, which ranks 5th in the nation in averaging 275.8 YPG on the ground while averaging 5.5 YPC. Werts completes a modest 58.9% for 789 yards with five TDs and six INTs. However, he's second on the team with 605 rushing yards on 5.4 YPC with six TDs. Four RBs have 300-plus rushing yards, led by JD King's 625 yards (5.4 YPC) and five TDs. The defense has been strong all season, as despite allowing 38 points to a 1-9 Texas St team in its last game, Georgia Southern is holding its opponents to a modest 21.8 PPG.

Army has SEVEN players with 200-plus rushing yards, led by RB Robinson's 347 yards on 8.1 YPC. RBs Buchanan and Adkins plus QB Anderson all have four rushing TDs, as Army ranks second in the nation with 303.4 YPG on the ground (on 5.3 YPC) with 27 rushing TDs. Army QBs have attempted just 40 passes in EIGHT games. Speaking of defense, Army is allowing its opponents just 15.0 PPG. Army is coming off a bad loss at Tulane (38-12) but in fairness, the Black Knights hadn't played in THREE weeks prior to that contest.

Speaking of recent games, how does one explain away Georgia Southern's two-point win at home over a 1-9 Texas St team? Georgia Southern's lone road win this year came 35-30 at UL-Monroe, which is just 2-8 on the season. By the way, Army routed UL-Monroe at home back on Sep 12, 37-7 (outgained the Warhawks 468-200 in total yards). It's true that Ga Southern QB Werts give the Eagles a more-balanced attack but in the end, this game will be decided by the competing option attacks. The Eagles top runner (JD King) has been lost to an ACL injury and note that the ONLY two times Army has passed more than 10 times in a game, it has lost! One of those losses came at now-No. 7 Cincinnati which is 7-0. The Cadets trailed just 17-10 in that game on the road midway through the fourth quarter and eventually lost just 24-10. Army's schedule in 2020 can be questioned by the Blacks Knights are 5-0 SU at home this season, extending their record at home to 21-2 SU since the start of the 2017 season. Stealing a chant from the Army/Navy rivalry, "Go Army! Beat Georgia Southern!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Las Vegas Insider Game of the Month is on Minnesota at 7:30 ET.

PJ Fleck 'rowed the boat' at Western Michigan back in 2016, leading the Broncos to a 13-1 season. He used that as a 'launching pad' to get the Minnesota job and in his third season at the school, led the Gophers to an 11-win season (1st since 1904), including that impressive win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. However, so far in 2020, Fleck's long-time motto has 'run aground!' The Gophers opened 0-2 in losing 49-24 to Michigan and Maryland 45-44 on a missed extra-point in OT but rebounded with a 41-14 home win over Illinois.  However, the not-so Golden Gophers followed up their first win of the year with a real clunker in a 35-7 home loss to Iowa last Saturday. Minnesota desperately needs a win here at home on Friday, when 2-1 Purdue visits Minneapolis.

Jeff Brohm had a strong three-year run as Western Kentucky's head coach (2014-16), going 30-10 overall, before accepting the Purdue job. He led the Boilermakers to bowl berths in his first two seasons (2017 and 2018) but Purdue was just 13-13 in those two years. A 4-8 season followed in 2019 and after opening 2-0 in 2020, the Boilermakers lost their showdown with Northwestern last Saturday (both schools entered unbeaten), 27-20 at home.

The Boilermakers are still hoping that standout WR Rondale Moore will return to provide Purdue's offense with a spark. Moore was sensational as a freshman in 2018 (114 catches for 1,258 yards with 21 TDs) and was off to another great start in 2019, when he was lost for the season in Purdue's fourth game. He's missed the first three games due to a lower-body injury. QB Aidan O'Connell (64.7% for 916 yards with 7 TDs and 2 INTs) threw for 263 yards and two TDs against Northwestern, while RB Zander Horvath caught nine passes for 100 yards. However, Horvath (252 rushing yards on 4.8 YPC) was held to just 21 yards, after topping 100 yards in wins over Iowa and Illinois. Purdue's ground game managed just TWO yards on 17 attempts! Without Moore, Bell (86 catches with 7 TDs in 2019) leads with 31 catches and four TDs grabs.

Minnesota's leading rusher Smith (1,163 yards / 5.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and record-setting WR Tyler Johnson (86 catches / 1,318 yards / 13 TDs) both moved on but QB Tanner Morgan returned, after throwing 30 TD passes last season (against only seven INTs). However, Morgan is off to a VERY slow start (57.5% / 769 yards / 4 TDs and 4 INTs). There is good news on offense for Minnesota, RB Mohammad Ibrahim has returned to his freshman form (1,160 yards on 5.7 YPC with nine TDs), after being injured for part of last season (he still ran for 604 yards on 5.3 YPC and seven TDs). Ibrahim has run for 140-plus yards in all four games, topping 200 yards, twice. He has 715 yards on the season, averaging 5.5 YPC with 10 TDs. WR Bateman is no Johnson but he does have 32 catches. Minnesota's D returned just four starters and has allowed 43.0 PPG in its three losses.

It's a 180-degree turnaround from last year for Minnesota in 2020, after the Golden Gophers won 11 games in 2019,  winning close games because the team frequently made big plays and didn't make mistakes. That same attention to detail has been missing in 2020. Minnesota plays ranked schools Wisconsin (10) and Northwestern (19) the next two weeks, then ends the season at Nebraska, needing to win THREE of four to finish at .500. Is that a 'bridge too far?' Probably, but beating Purdue here at home is NOT! Minnesota has won SIX of its last seven meetings with Purdue and the last time the Golden Gophers hosted the Boilermakers (2018), they won 41-10, the largest margin of victory in this series since 1985. Home dog 'barks VERY LOUDLY in this one!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* AAC Game of the Year is on Tulane at 7:30 ET.

Willie Fritz arrived in New Orleans to take over at Tulane for the 2016 season. The Green Wave would go 4-8 and 5-7 in his first two seasons but they would then go 6-6 and 6-6 in 2018 and 2019's regular season, capping each one off with a bowl win. It marked the first time Tulane had posted back-to-back winning seasons in 20 years. Tulane opened by eking out a 27-24 win at South Alabama but then took a 24-0 lead over Navy at the half, only to lose 27-24. The Green Wave rebounded with a 66-24 rout of Southern Miss but then lost THREE in a row (Houston, SMU and UCF), while allowing 45.7 PPG. With season 'heading south,' Tulane has rebounded with THREE straight wins, scoring exactly 38 points in each contest. 

Tulane now heads to Tulsa on Thursday night to face a 4-1 Tulsa team (4-0 in AAC), which just entered the AP poll this past Sunday at No. 25. Philip Montgomery got his first head coaching gig at Tulsa in 2015. He led the Golden Hurricane to bowls those first two seasons, including to a 1-3 season in 2016. However, THREE straight losing seasons followed (9-27 overall). Tulsa opened the current season with a competitive 16-7 loss at then-No. 11 Oklahoma St. Tulsa has ripped off FOUR straight wins since. Kudos to the Golden Hurricane who fell behind the then-No. 19 Mustangs 21-0 last Saturday, before outscoring them 28-3 the rest of the way. So what else is new? Tulsa trailed 16-2 at UCF on Oct 3 but came back to win 31-26 and on Oct 30 at home, trailed East Carolina 17-3 before winning 34-30. Nothing to it!

The Green Wave's surge has coincided with the maturation of freshman QB Michael Pratt, who has 14 TDs and just four INTs in seven starts (he also has five rushing TDs). He has brought balance to an offense that features an outstanding running game, averaging 224.1 YPG on 5.3 YPC with a whopping 26 TDs. Four RBs contribute, led by Huderson (548 yards on 6.6 YPC) and Carroll (542 yards on 5.6 YPC with 10 TDs). Tulsa's "comeback kids" are led by QB Zach Smith (61.5% with 10 TDs and 6 INTs) and a running game averaging 161.8 YPG on 4.1 YPC with eight TDs. Tulsa's defense has been VERY good, allowing just 21.8 PPG.

This is a tough spot for Tulsa, its win over SMU came after a stretch in which the Golden Hurricane had played just two games in 41 days, as Tulsa has had three weekends in which a game was postponed due to COVID-19 issues. This week, the Golden Hurricane return to action just FIVE days after the SMU win and will be playing as a ranked team for the first time since 2010. Tulane comes in on a roll and has beaten Tulsa each of the last three meetings. Take the points but expect an OUTRIGHT win by Tulane.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC Attack-Part 3 is on Central Michigan at 7:00 ET.

Western Michigan's Tim Lester has had BIG shoes to fill, taking over in 2017, after PJ Fleck led the Broncos to a 13-1 season (and a Cotton Bowl bid vs Wisconsin) in 2016. His first team went 6-6 (no bowl) but the Broncos have gone to a bowl each of the last two seasons, although they've lost both, finishing 7-6 each season. Jim McElwain made a name for himself at Colorado St, which got him the head coaching gig at Florida in 2015. The Gators went 10-4 and 9-4 in his first two seasons but he had problems with "powers that be" and was let go after a 3-4 start in 2017. He resurfaced at Central Michigan in 2019, taking over a team that went 1-11 in 2018. Things couldn't have gone much better in his first season, as the Chippewas won the MAC West (6-2) and finished the season 8-6 overall, although they lost the MAC title game 26-21 to Miami-Ohio and their bowl game 48-11 to SD State.

Western Michigan and Central Michigan have both opened 2-0 and meet Wednesday in Mount Pleasant. The winner puts itself in PRIME position to win the MAC West. The MAC is only playing SIX league games, meaning the team which comes out of the game at 3-0 will effectively own a TWO-game lead, considering it will also have the tiebreaker. Kaleb Eleby (redshirted last season) but has played well at QB for WMU, completing 71.1% for 546 yards with six TDs and zero INTs. The running game averages 185.5 YPG on 5.5 YPC, led by Sean Tyler's 168 yards on 8.0 YPC with a TD. He also has 10 catches, which ties WR D’Wayne Eskridge for the team lead. Eskridge is averaging 24.5 YPC with TDs, while fellow WRs Moore ( six catches / 19.7 YPC / one TD) and Hall (three catches / 29.7 YPC / two TDs) have made "big plays." The offense has scored 99 points in its first two games and somehow scored two TDs in the final 45 seconds of WMU's 41-38 win over Toledo last Wednesday (had to see it to believe it!).

CMU quarterback David Moore's status remains uncertain as a result of an NCAA suspension but Daniel Richardson has started the first two games and has been more than adequate (60% for 439 yards / 3 TDs / 1 INT). However, there's potential for even more big plays thanks to a strong receiving corps. Dallas Dixon averages 18.8 YPC over six catches, while Kalil Pimpleton (nine), JaCorey Sullivan (five) and Tyrone Scott (four) rounding out the top contributors. The running game is averaging 210.5 YPC on 4.7 YPC, led by Lewis (171 yards / 3.9 YPC / 3 TDs) and Nichols (122 yards / 5.8 YPC / one TD). The defense is the best in the MAC, holding opponents to 18.5 PPG on 294.5 YPG.

Central Michigan was 6-0 SU & ATS at home last season and its win and cover at home over Ohio U in the team's season opener gives them a 7-0 SU & ATS run at Kelly/Shorts Stadium. Meanwhile, WMU was 1-6 SU away from home in 2019 (counts bowl loss) and a 58-13 win at Akron on Nov 4 hardly counts (Zips are on a 19-game slide, going 4-15 ATS)! A good defense usually beats a good offense plus remember, CMU is averaging 35.5 PPG, themselves. The fact that the Broncos are 4-17 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS win has me saying, why NOT play the Chippewas?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Michigan at 7:30 ET.

The Big Ten returned to play on Friday, Oct 23 as then-No. 14 hosted Illinois in the nation's oldest conference's first game of CFB 2020. Wisconsin expected RB Jonathan Taylor (2,003 rushing yards in 2019) to leave a year early for the NFL but head Paul Chryst couldn't have planned for the loss of QB Jack Coan (69.6% / 2,727 yards / 18 TDs and just five INTs in 2019) to a foot injury on Oct 10. That meant redshirt freshman Graham Mertz got the start. Not to worry, as Metz completed 20 of 21 passes for 248 yards with five TDs, as the Badgers rolled 45-7. Wisconsin heads to "The Big House" in Ann Arbor to play Michigan ranked 13th in the latest AP poll but because of a fairly significant COVID-19 outbreak (which included QB Mertz and head coach Chryst), Wisconsin will be playing just its second game of the season. As for Michigan, Jim Harbaugh's team is once again underachieving. The Wolverines ran all over Minnesota 49-24 in its season opener on Oct 24 (256 rushing yards on 8.3 YPC) but have since lost 27-24 at home to Michigan St (as a three-TD favorite) and then steamrolled 38-21 at Indiana last Saturday, losing to the Hoosiers for the FIRST time in 33 years!

Let's start with Wisconsin. It was never a given that the Badgers would be able to play this game but it's on. However, the status of redshirt freshman QB Graham Mertz, who tested positive on Oct 24, is unclear. Head coach Paul Chryst, who tested positive on the same day, said the Badgers will measure the progress of Mertz all week. "Graham, the way that he is timing out (is) starting that process of coming back, his tests are all done. So I think he'll be able to have some practice. We'll see if it's enough practice time," Chryst said. "You don't know. Each guy's a little bit different how they handle all of it. We'll kind of see on him and a couple of other guys that were kind of in that early group of (positive tests)." 

Michigan broke in a new QB to start this season as well and Joe Milton shined in the team's season-opening win. He completed 15 of 22 for 225 yards with one TD and zero INTs, while adding 52 yards rushing and another TD. Yes, Michigan's dropped its last two games but DON'T blame Milton. He threw for 300 yards and ran for 59 more in the loss to MSU and while he did throw his first two INTs of the season at Indiana, he also passed for 344 yards and three TDs. Michigan's running game disappeared vs Indiana 13 yards on 18 attempts and its defense allowed Indiana to roll up 460 yards.

Why Michigan here? First let me start with Wisconsin. No one knows for certain which players are ready and how much that they will be able to impact the contest. What's more, so what that Wisconsin rolled over Illinois 45-7? The Illini are 0-3, having allowed 39.0 PPG on 475.7 YPG. In fact, Illinois 'held' Wisconsin to 430 yards, which is the team's best defensive effort of the season. I'm on record as not liking or being very impressed with Harbaugh but the fact remains that the home team is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings of this series and Wisconsin has NOT won in Ann Arbor since 2010! Michigan is out of the AP top-25 for the first time since the end of the 2017 season and a HUGE understatement would be that the Wolverines (particularly Harbaugh) is DESPERATE for a win in this one. Getting points is a bonus. Go Big Blue!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET.

TCU head coach Gary Patterson took over at TCU when Dennis Franchione left to take the Alabama job (that didn't go well but it's a story for another day) and in his 19 full seasons, he's led TCU to 15 winning ones and 16 bowls (10-6). TCU's 'glory years' were 2008-11, when the school went 45-5 over four seasons. TCU finished 7th, 6th, 2nd and 14th in the final AP rankings during that stretch (2010 team went 13-0, including a 21-18 Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin). TCU entered 2020 off a 7-6 record in 2018 and a 5-7 record in 2019. 3-3 TCU has just nine games on its current schedule, so the Horned Frogs will fail to reach eight wins for a third straight year. That hasn't happened since the 1998 team went 8-4 to end a drought of 14 seasons the school failed to reach eight wins (maybe the team gets a 'pass' this year, due to COVID-19).

Neal Brown spent four years as the head coach at Troy. His first season saw his team go 4-8 but over the next three seasons the Trojans went 31-8 overall, including winning all THREE bowl appearances. He was announced as the 35th head football coach of West Va on January 5, 2019 and after a 5-7 first season, the Mountaineers are off to a 4-3 start in 2020. West Va lost all four Big 12 home games last season but the Mountaineers are 4-0 at home so far this season, including 3-0 in Big 12 play.

QB Max Duggan battled a heart condition that led to him having a procedure back in mid-August to correct it. The Horned Frogs opened the season losing THREE of four but have won two in row, albeit over struggling programs Baylor and Texas Tech (a combined 2-9 this season). Duggan has been able to play all games so far, completing 65.2% for 1,113 yards with a modest five TDs but just two INTs. He's TCU's leading rusher (329 yards / 4.1 YPC / 6 TDs) and rushed for a career-high 154 yards and three touchdowns on 19 carries in last Saturday's 34-18 win over Texas Tech. RB Barlow adds 291 yards on 5.8 YPC and three TDs, as the Horned Frogs are averaging 184.5 YPG on the ground.

The Mountaineers are coming off a tough 17-13 loss at then-No. 22 Texas last Saturday. However, West Virginia nearly beat the Longhorns despite rushing for a season-low 43 yards. The Mountaineers average just 67.3 YPG on the ground while losing all THREE road contests but have averaged 218.3 YPG in going 4-0 at home. RB Leddie Brown has run for 741 yards on 5.3 YPC with nine TDs (more in a bit). QB Jarrett Doege has been pretty good, completing 65.2% for 2,007 yards with 11 TDs and only three INTs in 282 attempts. The defense has been strong all season, allowing 19.4 PPG.

Here's the bottom line. West Va is 3-1 SU in its last four with TCU, covering all four. That includes last season's 20-17 outright upset at Fort Worth as about a two-TD underdog. I just noted West Va's defense above and will add that its "stop unit" is allowing just 282 YPG against Big 12 opponents, holding those foes to 97 YPG under their season average. West Va is averaging 39.5 PPG in going 4-0 at home and RB Brown, who has averaged a modest 76.0 YPG on the road, averages 128.2 YPG at home. Add in that QB Doege has thrown for over 300 yards in each of West Va's last four games with a 6-1 TD/INT ratio and "the price is right" for a West Va "W' and an easy cover!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Penn St at 12:00 ET.

Penn State and Nebraska are two of CFB's most storied programs with more than 1,700 wins between the schools. However, the Nittany Lions (ranked No. 7 in the AP's preseason poll) and Nebraska both meet Saturday at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Ne (12 ET) winless so far in 2020. Penn State has opened a season with three straight losses for the first time since 2001, when it dropped its first four games, and hasn't experienced a losing season since going 4-7 in 2004. The Nittany Lions opened this season with a 36-35 overtime loss at Indiana on Oct 24, suffered a 13-point home loss to Ohio State and then suffered a 35-19 home defeat to Maryland on Saturday as a four-TD favorite. Nebraska opened 2020 off three straight losing seasons under Scott Frost and has scored just 30 points in losing to Ohio State and Northwestern.

Current head coach Jamie Franklin led Vandy to three straight bowl games from 2011-13, after the school had made only FOUR bowl appearances in its history. That got him the Penn St job and after back-to-back 7-6 seasons, led the Nittany Lions to 11-win seasons in THREE of the next four years. Expectations were high entering 2020 but I've already noted Penn St's 'nightmare' of a start. "It's very apparent what type of football team we are," Penn State QB Sean Clifford said. "We are an 0-3, underperforming football team." Clifford completed 27 of 57 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns, with two interceptions, against Maryland. He's thrown three TD passes in each of the team's first three games but gets little help from a running game averaging just 129.3 YPG on 3.4 YPC (Clifford is the team's leading rusher with 150 yards). However, he does have solid receivers in WRs Dotson 21 catches / 17.2 yPC / 5 TDs) and Washington (14 catches / 3 TDs) plus TE Freiermuth (16 catches / 1 TD). Penn State's defense is typically a strength (allowed just 16.0 PPG in 2019) but after three games, this year's team is allowing 36.3 PPG.

Scott Frost led Nebraska to a national championship back in 1997 as its starting QB and always wanted to "return home." After leading UCF to a perfect 13-0 season in 2017, he got his wish. As the proverb goes, "Be careful what you wish for." The 'Huskers have gone 4-8, 5-7 and 0-2, giving Frost a 9-17 record, including 6-14 in the Big Ten. Starting QB Martinez and backup McCaffrey have combined to throw 65 passes and Nebraska is still without a TD pass. The duo split time vs Northwestern, as Nebraska rushed for 224 yards, totaled 442 yards and gained 28 FDs but suffered a 21-13 loss at Northwestern on Saturday. "It's inexcusable we only had 13 points in that game," Frost said. He's right about that. Martinez and McCaffrey are runners, not passers, with Martinez running for 187 yards (7.2 YPC) and McCaffrey for 129 yards (7.6 YPC). The 'best' RB is Mills, who has just 84 yards on 3.0 YPC. As for pass-catchers, Robinson has 10 receptions, averaging a woeful 8.4 YPC.

Comparative scores can be misleading but both have played Ohio St earlier, with Penn St within eight points in the early 4th quarter of a 13-point loss, while Nebraska got blown out, 52-17. This is Nebraska's first home game of 2020 but so what, the Cornhuskers are 5-15 ATS at home the last three seasons. The Nebraska pass D has allowed 75% completions through two games (36 of 48), so expect Clifford to have a big day. NO 0-4 start for Penn St.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout is on Minnesota at 7:00 ET.

Kirk Ferentz was hired as Iowa's 26th head football coach to replace the retiring Hayden Fry back on December 2, 1998. The team struggled during Ferentz's first two seasons with a combined 4–19 record but the Hawkeyes earned their first bowl bid of the Ferentz era after a 7–5 season in 2001 and then beat Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl, 19–16. The winning has been consistent ever since, as Iowa has gone 'bowling' in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. Problems arose this past offseason internally and Iowa, which opened No. 24 in the AP's preseason poll, has lost 24-20 at Purdue and 21-20 at home to Northwestern to open a season 0-2 for the first time since 2000. However, the Hawkeyes routed Michigan St 49-7 last Saturday, as Iowa's defense made life miserable for Michigan State QBs, producing two sacks, three interceptions and five hurries (MSU was held to 10 FDs and 286 yards of total offense).

PJ Fleck 'rowed the boat' at Western Michigan back in 2016, leading the Broncos to a 13-1 season. He used that as a 'launching pad' to get the Minnesota job and in his third season at the school, led the Gophers to an 11-win season (1st since 1904), including that impressive win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. Leading rusher Smith (1,163 yards / 5.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and record-setting WR Tyler Johnson (86 catches / 1,1318 yards / 13 TDs) have moved on and the defense returned just FOUR starters. Minnesota was blown out in its opener against Michigan, allowing 256 rushing yards and 49 points and then lost 45-44 at Maryland (defense allowed 451 yards), when it missed a tying extra-point in OT. The Gophers picked up their first win of 2020 last Saturday, beating hapless Illinois, 41-14.

Iowa had to replace its starting QB, as Nate Stanley ended a three-year career at Iowa with 68 TDs and 23 INTs, while posting a 27-12 record as a starter, including winning all THREE bowl appearances! Sophomore Spencer Petras completed just 53.9 percent of his passes in the first two games and was picked off three times by the Wildcats as the Hawkeyes managed just three points in the last three quarters of a one-point loss. He was better last Saturday, completing 15 of 27 for 167 yards with one TD and zero INTs. Iowa's running game averaged a modest 136.0 YPG in its 0-2 start but led by Tyler Goodson (113 yards / 2 TDs) the Hawkeyes ran for 226 yards on 5.5 YPC. Iowa's 2019 defense ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in allowing 14.0 PPG last season (5th nationally) and ranked 5th in the Big Ten in allowing 308.2 YPG (12th nationally). After three games of 2020, Iowa is allowing 17.0 PPG on 315.0 YPG.

While the Gophers lost RB Smith and WR Johnson (see above), QB Tanner Morgan returned, after throwing 30 TD passes last season (against only seven INTs). However, Morgan is off to a VERY slow start (61.6% / 602 yards / 3 TDs and 2 INTs). The good news on offense is that RB Mohammad Ibrahim has returned to his freshman form (1,160 yards on 5.7 YPC with nine TDs), after being injured for part of last season (he still ran for 604 yards on 5.3 YPC and seven TDs). Ibrahim ran 30 times for 224 yards with four TDs last Saturday and has gained a conference-best 571 yards on 5.9 YPC with 10 TDs through three games. WR Bateman is no Johnson but he does have six TDs among his 24 catches. Minnesota's D was awful vs Michigan and Maryland, so a good effort vs pathetic Illinois is NO big deal.

These rivals play for the Floyd of Rosedale, a statuette of the bronze pig that has served as the rivalry trophy in the series since 1935. It's true that Iowa has won FIVE straight in this series and that includes last season's 23-19 win in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes stormed to a 20-3 lead midway through the second quarter before holding on for a victory to ruin the then-No. 8 Golden Gophers' bid for an undefeated season and possible spot in the College Football Playoff. Talk about a "revenge" motive. Iowa can play defense but Minnesota's offense leads the Big Ten West, averaging 439.3 YPG while scoring 109 points (36.3 per). Morgan is OVERDUE for a "breakout" performance and should remember he threw for 386 yards against Iowa's defense last season. I'm calling for Minnesota to win AND by double-digits!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC Game of the Year is on Western Michigan at 8:00 ET.

Both Toledo and Western Michigan opened their respective 2020 season with wins over the MAC East's two bottom teams. Toledo led longtime rival Bowling Green (schools are about 25 miles apart) 21-0 at the end of the first quarter and cruised to a 38-3 lead, running up 524 yards while holding BG to just 267. Western Michigan actually trailed Akron 7-3 but opened a 30-13 lead at the half, before scoring 28 unanswered second-half points for a 58-13 win. It's fair to say, this contest will be a much more competitive game.

Toledo's Jason Candle begins his fifth season at Toledo, after he replaced Matt Campbell in 2015. Campbell left to take the Iowa St job and Candle coached the Rockets to 32-17 Boca Raton Bowl win over Temple. He led Toledo to three straight bowls from 2016-18 but lost all three. Toledo came up short of a bowl last season and its 6-6 record snapped a run of NINE consecutive winning seasons. Western Michigan's Tim Lester has had BIG shoes to fill, taking over in 2017, after PJ Fleck led the Broncos to a 13-1 season (and a Cotton Bowl bid vs Wisconsin) in 2016. His first team went 6-6 (no bowl) but the Broncos have gone to a bowl each of the last two seasons, although they've lost both, finishing 7-6 each season (more later).

Eli Peters was the returning QB at Toledo but had some challengers. He held them off and looked good in his first action of 2020, going 20 of 32 for 314 yards with four TDs and zero INTs. Four different players caught TD passes, three WRs and RB Koback. Koback had 1,187 rushing yards last season (12 TDs) but had a modest 74 last week, as backfield partner Seymour led with 93 yards on 7.2 YPC. Not to worry, Toledo ran for 310 yards on 6.0 YPC. The defense held BG in check and forced three turnovers.

Kaleb Eleby (redshirted last season ) but played well at QB for the Broncos, completing 12 of 16 for 262 yards with three TDs and no INTs. The running game, which will miss Bellamy (1,472 yards and 23 TDs last season), ran for 218 yards on 5.6 YPC. Jefferson had 70 yards on 7.8 YPC and Tyler had 68 yards on 7.6 YPC (each scored a TD). WR Eskridge was injured last season but had three catches totaling 114 yards (38.0 YPC) with two going for TDs. 

Here's the rub. Toledo has won EIGHT of the last 10 meetings but I'm far from sold on this year's team, coming off its 6-6 record last year (see above). Toledo was just 1-5 SU a on the road last season, including 0-4 in MAC games, getting outscored 170-58 (that's 42.5-to-14.5 PPG!). Meanwhile, Western Michigan was 6-0 SU at home last season (will take a seven-game home winning streak into this one), going 4-0 at home in MAC games by outscoring opponents 153-72 (that's 38.3-to-18.0 PPG).  

Western Michigan ended last season by losing to a depleted Northern Illinois team, which cost them the West Divison title and then in the First Responder Bowl against Western Ky, a too-many-me-on-the-field penalty sealed a 23-20 loss. I like WMU's chances of winning the West in 2020 and a win here, gives them the tiebreaker over Toledo, which with a SIX-game schedule, is HUGE. Home team gets the "W" and COVER!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Pac 12 Opener is on Oregon St at 10:30 ET.

The Pac-12 and the Big Ten Conference voted to postpone fall sports back in August but the Big Ten was first to reverse that decision, leaving the Pac 12 as the only Power Five conference still postponing. However, the Pac 12 announced on Sep 24 that it would return to the field with each schools playing a conference-only seven-game schedule (championship game is scheduled for December 18). Finally, the conference's 12 schools begin play on Saturday, Nov 7, with ONE of the six games on the schedule featuring Washington St and Oregon St  meeting in Corvallis. It's a rematch of one of the wildest games in the 2019 Pac-12 season, when last November in Pullman, the Cougars overcame an 11-point deficit in the final 2:10 to win 54-53.

The victory was the last of Mike Leach's eight-year tenure at Washington State. The Cougars lost their regular-season finale to rival Washington, then dropped the Cheez-It Bowl to Air Force. Leach left the program in January for Mississippi State and Nick Rolovich was announced as the new head coach for Washington State on January 13, 2020. Rolovich was hired as the new head football coach at the University of Hawaii back on Nov 27, 2015. Rolovich played QB at Hawaii for two years and in his four seasons at Hawaii, led the Rainbow Warriors to THREE Hawaii Bowl berths (won two of the three). This game marks the debut of Washington State's "run-and-shoot" offense, after eight years of the "Air Raid." The scheme change also comes with a new starting QB, the FOURTH different season-opening starter for the Cougars in as many years. Gardner Minshew and Anthony Gordon were single-season starters at Washington State in 2018 and 2019, and both set various passing records in their abbreviated stints. The running game is led by Max Borghi, who ran for 817 yards (6.4 YPC) with 11 TDs, while also catching 86 passes for another five TDs. WSU's top-three WRs have gone and that trio combined for 221 receptions! However, Bell (54), Harris (47) and Martin (43) give whoever plays QB, plenty of solid targets. Defense IS a problem, as the Cougars allowed 31.4 PPG, including 36.6 PPG in Pac 12 play.

Jonathan Smith was a four-year starter for the Beavers at QB. As a junior in 2000 under Dennis Erickson, he led the Beavers to their greatest season in school history. The Beavers finished 11–1 (a school record for wins), won a share of their first conference title in 36 years and finished fourth in the country. Smith was the MVP of the Fiesta Bowl. He's now the team's head coach and begins his third season. His first ended with a 2-10 record but in 2019, a victory in the above-mentioned game with Washington St would have given OSU a 6-6 record, with the Beavers becoming bowl-eligible. Instead, the Beavers finished 5-7. Oregon State will have a new QB this season as well, as Jake Luton, who passed for 2,714 yards and 28 touchdowns against just three interceptions in 2019, is now with the NFL's Jacksonville Jaguars. Luton's backup a season ago, Tristan Gebbia, will make the start on Saturday. RB Pierce (873 yards / 6.0 YPC / 6 TDs) is also gone but Jefferson is primed for a HUGE year. He ran for 1,380 yards as a freshman and battled injuries last season but still ran for 685 yards on 4.8 YPC with eight TDs. Reports are that the defense has made major strides under DC Tim Tibesar and this is "Year 2" in his system. The Beavers have SEVEN of their top-eight tacklers back on defense, including pass-rushing linebacker Hamilcar Rashed Jr. returns after a 2019 season in which he racked up 22.5 tackles for loss and 14 sacks.

OSU and WSU combined for 48 points in the fourth-quarter of last season's shoot-out,  with WSU scoring the game-winning TD with just TWO seconds remaining. Washington St opens the season with a new head coach, a new offensive scheme and a new QB. Meanwhile, Oregon St ended last season covering FIVE of its last six games, while pulling THREE outright upsets. Throw in a little "revenge" motive from last season and the play is on the Beavers!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Month is on Clemson at 7:30 ET.

The marquee matchup on Saturday (and the Game of the CFB 2020 season to-date) is No. 1 Clemson (7-0) at No. 4 Notre Dame (6-0). You may have heard that Trevor Lawrence will NOT play, meaning freshman D.J. Uiagalelei will line up under center for the Tigers for the second straight Saturday. He passed for 342 yards and two TDs plus ran for a third, as Clemson came back from a 28-7 halftime deficit to beat Boston College 34-28 (Tigers were favored by 26 1/2-points). Clemson has won 28 consecutive games against ACC opponents and 40 straight regular season games, the second-longest streak of all-time. Notre Dame is off a less-than-impressive win as well, winning 31-13 at Ga Tech as a three-TD road favorite. The Irish will welcome the Tigers to South Bend owning a 12-game winning streak, the longest active among FBS teams.

The ACC has a different feel in 2020, with the addition of Notre Dame and the dissolution of divisions. This season's ACC championship game in Charlotte, N.C. will feature the league's top-two schools in a now 15-team league. Is it possible that this week's game could merely be a prelude to a mid-December rematch? Maybe so but let's concentrate on "first things first!" Uiagalelei hadn't looked all that good in a "mop roll" when Lawrence was sent to the sidelines but he showed plenty of poise in his first career start, last week. Sure, it was only against Boston College AND it was at home. Clearly, playing in South Bend, even without crowds, is an entirely different 'animal.' However, let's NOT forget that while Lawrence was the Heisman front-runner, the two-time ACC offensive POY is RB Etienne (606 yards on 5.9 YPC with 9 TDs plus 29 catches for 2 TDs). He's off back-to-back 'MONSTER' seasons and should get plenty of work here. NINE different players have caught at least one TD, led by WR Rodgers (40 catches / 14.6 YPC / 6 TDs). Clemson's defense has allowed less than 14 PPG each of the last three seasons but is off that pace in 2020, allowing 18.2 PPG.

How good is Notre Dame? The Irish have been unimpressive in wins over Duke, Louisville and Ga Tech (note: those schools are a combined 4-14). I do NOT get the hype surrounding QB Ian Book, who looks no better than average to me. He completes 61.3% for 1,225 yards (7 TDs / 1 INT) and has added five rushing TDs. The Notre Dame running game is strong, as Williams (600 yards on 5.7 YPC / 7 TDs) leads a unit averaging 2310 YPG on 5.1 YPC. As for ND's receiving corps, TE Mayer leads with 15 catches (are you kidding me?). Notre Dame's defense is allowing only 10.3 PPG but again, the team's six 'victims' are a combined 8-27 (.229).

Not a single Notre Dame opponent has a winning record, so its defensive stats mean little to me. Yes, Clemson's D is allowing almost five PPG more than in the last three seasons but here in 2020, Clemson has held FIVE of its seven opponents to a season-low in total yards. Clemson would be laying more than double-digits with Lawrence and my bet says  Uiagalelei will be just fine and Etienne will be a STAR! Lay the 'cheap' number!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Rivalry Game of the Month is on Florida at 3:30 ET.

"The World's Largest Cocktail Party" will be played in Jacksonville on Saturday, as No. 5 Georgia (4-1) takes on and No. 8 Florida (3-1). The two SEC East schools square off as top-10 teams for the THIRD consecutive season, with Georgia (which owns a 52-43-2 series lead) looking for its FOURTH straight win in the series. "It doesn't clinch it or seal anything, but whoever wins this game certainly is putting themselves in the driver's seat to get to Atlanta," Florida head coach Dan Mullen said (Georgia is seeking a fourth straight SEC title).

Florida is dealing with injuries, suspensions and potential COVID-19 absences but returned from a three-week layoff (COVID issues) to beat Missouri 41-17 last Saturday. The Gators had a near-perfect pass/run balance in 2018, passing for 213.5 YPG, while rushing for 213.2 YPG but last season Florida passed for 305 yards and ran for 130. That's continued in 2020 with QB Trask completing 68.3% for 1,341 yards in four games (335 per) with 18 TDs and just two TDs, while Florida is averaging only 133.8 YPG rushing but on 4.8 YPC. The team's leading rusher (Pierce) has just 169 yards but averages 5.0 YPC. 6-5 TE Pitts has 22 catches, averaging 16.1 YPC with seven TDs and WR Toney also has 22 catches with six TDs (13.5 YPC). Florida's defense was AWFUL the first three games, allowing 100 points but finally showed up against Missouri, holding the Tigers to 17 points on just 248 yards.

One could say it was "only Missouri," but the Georgia offense has been VERY underwhelming in 2020. QB Stetson Bennett ignited the offense when he came off the bench in the opener at Arkansas, completing 20 of 29 for 211 yards with two TDs and no INTs in a 37-10 win. Bennett had five TDs without an INT in Georgia's 3-0 start but in the Bulldogs' 41-24 loss at Alabama and last Saturday's 14-3 win at Kentucky, he has just two TD passes and FIVE interceptions. Bennett only has one quality receiver, Jackson (24 catches / 14.5 YPC / one TD) and Georgia's running game is better than Florida's (175.2 YPG) but NOT by much. Georgia arrived in Tuscaloosa for its showdown with Alabama ranking first nationally in rushing defense (38.3 YPG), second in total defense (236.7 YPG) and tied for fifth in scoring defense (12.3 PPG).

However, Alabama shredded Georgia's defense with 41 points on 564 yards and Florida comes into this game averaging 42.0 PPG on 476.5 YPG. I'll take the points but expect a Florida outright win.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Iowa at 12:00 ET.

Mel Tucker was an assistant at Ohio St under Jim Tressel when the Buckeyes won a national championship and also was part of  a national championship team at Alabama under Nick Saban. His first head coaching job came at Colorado in 2019, with the Buffs going 5-7. However, when Michigan State's all-time winningest coach Mark Dantonio stepped down at the end of 2019, Tucker resigned as Colorado's head coach to accept the same position at Michigan State. Tucker's contract at Michigan State is worth $5.5 million annually for six years; more than double his contract at Colorado (not a tough choice, because loyalty and honoring contracts have NO place in college football). His debut for Michigan St turned into a 'nightmare,' as the Spartans lost 38-27 at home to Rutgers (as a  9 1/2-point favorite), turning the ball over SEVEN times! The Scarlet Knights broke a 21-game losing streak in the Big Ten with the victory. However, he made history last week as his team surprised archrival Michigan 27-24, as just over a three-TD underdog. Tucker became the first Spartans coach to record his first overall victory against the Wolverines. The Spartans will try to carry that momentum over to Iowa in a Big Ten game on Saturday.

Kirk Ferentz was hired as Iowa's 26th head football coach to replace the retiring Hayden Fry back on December 2, 1998. The team struggled during Ferentz's first two seasons with a combined 4–19 record but the Hawkeyes earned their first bowl bid of the Ferentz era after a 7–5 season in 2001 and then beat Texas Tech in the Alamo Bowl, 19–16. The winning has been consistent ever since, as Iowa has gone 'bowling' in 17 of the previous 19 seasons. Problems arose over the offseason internally and Iowa, which opened No. 24 in the AP's preseason poll, has lost  24-20 at Purdue and 21-20 at home to Northwestern to open a season 0-2 for the first time since 2000.

Michigan St had to replace QB Brian Lewerke and Rocky Lombardi threw for 319 yards with three TDs and two INTs in the loss to Rutgers. He then threw for 323 yards and three TDs (without an interception) at Michigan and found a new favorite target in WR wide Ricky White, as the freshman set a single-game school record with 196 receiving yards. White is averaging 22.3 YPC on his nine receptions, while fellow WSRs Reed (12 / 12.2 YPC / 2 TDs) and Nailor (eight catches / 19.0 YPC) / 1 TD) give Lombardi quality options. However, MSU's running game is averaging just 88.0 YPG on 2.7 YPC.

Iowa also had to replace its starting QB, as Nate Stanley ended a three-year career at Iowa with 68 TDs and 23 INTs, while posting a 27-12 record as a starter, including winning all THREE bowl appearances! Sophomore Spencer Petras has completed just 53.9 percent of his passes in the first two games and was picked off three times by the Wildcats as the Hawkeyes managed just three points in the last three quarters of a one-point loss. "Spencer has done a lot of good things," Ferentz said. "You keep in mind this is his first year starting. Unlike most guys in the past that have played here, he didn't have the luxury of being in spring practice, so this is learning on the job." He'd better start learning fast! Iowa's running game has averaged a modest 136.0 YPG on 4.6 YPC, so as noted, Petras is going have to up his game. Iowa's 2019 defense ranked 2nd in the Big Ten in allowing 14.0 PPG last season (5th nationally) and ranked 5th in the Big Ten in allowing 308.2 YPG (12th nationally). 

"Historically, we have played a lot of close games, so the challenge for us right now is to find a way to get over the hump and make the outcome go a different direction -- in our direction," Ferentz said. "It gets down to being a little more detailed and doing everything collectively a little bit better." Off two "close losses," the Hawkeyes catch the Spartans off their upset of hated rival Michigan St. Iowa is on a 10-4 ATS run in this series and the fact remains that this inexperienced Michigan St team is off that HUGE win AND playing its second straight road game. Iowa has to be motivated (angry?) off those two close losses plus note that MSU is 3-9 ATS off a SU win the last two seasons, as well as being on a 3-11 ATS run vs Big Ten opponents. Great "situation" for a two-TD (or more) win by the Hawkeyes.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on Michigan at 12:00 ET.

Michigan opened the season ranked No. 16 in the AP's preseason poll but of course didn't play its first game until Oct 24. The Wolverines won impressively 42-24 at Minnesota in their season opener but then lost last Saturday at home 27-24 to Michigan St as a three-TD favorite. Fans and alumni are getting tired of Harbaugh's lack of success against Michigan's top rivals, as the Wolverines are 8-13 against Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin during Harbaugh's five-plus year tenure.

Tom Allen was hired back in 2016 to serve as defensive coordinator on head coach Kevin Wilson's staff at Indiana. However, on December 1, 2016, Indiana athletic director Fred Glass named Allen head coach after Wilson's sudden resignation, forcing Allen to make his coaching debut during the team's final game of the season at the 2016 Foster Farms Bowl, where the Hoosiers lost 26-24 to Utah. Allen's first two teams each went 5-7 but he quickly elevated Indiana's recruiting posture. Allen's third season was 2019 and he led Indiana to its first 7-2 start since 1993, earning the school's first top-25 ranking since 1994. Indiana finished the regular season with an 8-4 record, its first eight-win since 1993. The Hoosiers lost another close bowl game to cap the season, falling to Tennessee 23-22 in the Gator Bowl. Indiana opened 2020 with a dramatic 36-35 overtime win at home vs Penn State, then followed with a methodical 37-21 win at Rutgers on Saturday. Indiana is 2-0, giving the school its best start in the Big Ten since 1991, while the Hoosiers' No. 13 ranking is the school's highest since it was ranked 11th back in 1987.

Michigan dominated Minnesota(which was coming off an 11-win season), as Joe Milton (making his first career start at QB) completed 15 of 22 passes for 225 yards and a touchdown plus rushed for 52 yards and another score. Michigan ran for 253 yards on 31 carries, an 8.3 average, while scoring five rushing TDs. That was supposed to be an excellent effort but then we saw Minnesota lose 45-44 (OT) to a sad-sack Maryland team. Milton passed for 300 yards last week (but on 51 attempts) and ran for 59 yards but Michigan scored just 24 points. Michigan scored on just FOUR of 12 possessions, finishing the game just 7 of 17 on third-down conversations. The defense contributed to the loss as well, allowing 449 yards.

Allen's forte is defense and the Indiana D has forced THREE turnovers in each of its first two games. QB Michael Penix Jr threw for three TDs and added one rushing in the win over Rutgers. However, he's completing a modest 58.1% after two games for 408 yards. The Hoosiers have NO running game, averaging 75.0 YPG on 2.3 YPC. As Penix said after the Rutgers win, "The defense gave us great field position. I feel like it is a team effort. The defense causes turnovers whenever the opponent was backed up, and that gave us a short field. We took advantage of it." As for head coach Tom Allen, he still believes there is another level that the Hoosiers can reach as they head into Saturday's home matchup with Michigan. "It's about us playing our best football." "To me that's the focus. We haven't done that yet."

I like Allen and what he's done at Indiana and Harbaugh is one of my least favorite coaches but Michigan IS the better team AND is coming off an embarrassing home loss to hated rival Michigan St. The Hoosiers offense has shown no real rhythm plus Indiana comes in just 3-7 ATS as a home dog under Allen. Most importantly, Indiana hasn't beaten Michigan since 1987.  Harbaugh NEEDS a win and gets it here, "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Friday Night Lights (Part 2) is on Boise St at 9:45 ET.

The 2020 college football season was surely expected to be "unlike any other." Just ask BYU, as NINE of the 12 schools on its schedule originally decided to NOT play in 2020. BYU plays football as an Independent and had to scramble to patch together a 2020 schedule. However, the four conferences that opted out in August, reversed field in September. BYU's current head coach is Kalani Sitake, who took over in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6, again. No one expected much from BYU in 2020 but BYU's 7-0 start is its first since 2001 and its No. 9 ranking places the school inside the AP top-10 for the first time since November 7, 2009.

The Cougars visit the famous "Blue Turf" of Boise's Albertsons Stadium on Friday night to take on No. 21 Boise State. The Broncos play in the MWC, which originally opted out of the fall FB season but agreed to return to play for a conference only eight-game schedule. The Broncos have opened 2-0. Bryan Harsin returned to Boise State to be its head coach on December 11, 2013, replacing his mentor Petersen, who left for the University of Washington. In his first season at the helm, he led his team to a Mountain West Championship win over Fresno State (28–14) and earned a spot in the Fiesta Bowl vs Arizona. The Broncos went on to win the Fiesta Bowl 38–30 and Harsin won 12 games in his first season. There's been little drop-off since, as Harsin has led the Broncos to 10-plus wins in FIVE of his six seasons.

This Friday contest figures to be a high-scoring affair as Boise State has averaged 45.5 points (third in the nation) and 454.5 yards (22nd) over its two first games, while BYU is averaging 44.4 points (seventh) and 527.7 yards (sixth). The Cougars have topped 40 points in six of their first seven games for the first time in program history. If BYU wins here, it could easily wind up unbeaten. The same holds for Boise St as currently, the team's remaining schedule doesn't feature any likely 'danger' spots.

BYU quarterback Zach Wilson originally committed to play at Boise State in June 2017 but reneged on his pledge six months later when schools such as BYU and Iowa made late offers. He chose the Cougars and became the starter during his freshman season. Now, in 2020, he is soaring up the list of top college QBs, and some draft experts have him as a top-10 overall pick if he should enter the NFL draft after this season. Wilson has completed 74.6% for 2,152 yards with 19 TDs and just two INTs. All five OL starters returned but no RB ran for more than 359 yards in 2019. However, Allgeier has run for 587 yards (on 6.5 YPC with 7 TDs) and the Cougars are averaging 190.0 YPG on the ground (4.9 YPC). Three standout WRs all graduated but Wilson's made do with WRs Milne (42 catches / 16.8 YPC / 6 TDs) and Romney (26 catches / 19.8 YPC / 2 TDs) plus TE Rex, who has just 16 catches but for four TDs.

Boise has played just TWO games against overmatched opponents so to some extent one has to project. Case in point is that Boise State sophomore QB Hank Bachmeier (20 of 28 with 268 yards with three TDs and zero INTs in Boise's season opener) didn't travel with the team Saturday to a 49-30 victory over Air Force. Bryan Harsin has declined to shed light on the reason for Bachmeier's absence. What we do know is this. Junior transfer Jack Sears was superb in Bachmeier's place, completing 17 of 20 passes for 280 yards and three touchdowns and also rushing for a score. RB George Holani extended Boise State's streak of 1,000-yard rushers to 11 straight seasons with 1,014 yards in 2019. He had 100 yards rushing in Boise's first game but was injured vs Air Force after two carries for five yards. However, RB Van Buren played well stepping in for Holani with 70 yards and two TDs.

Boise State's home dominance goes back a LONG way but let me stick with its home record under Harsin. He entered this season 35-5 SU at home and after the Broncos' home win their season opener gives them a eight-game home winning streak heading into this contest. BYU is 2-0 ATS in 2020 as a road favorite but entered this season on a 2-7 ATS record in that role the previous three seasons. I will NOT pass up Boise St as a home dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Weekly Wipeout (Wednesday G.O.M.) is on Miami-Ohio at 7:00 ET.

The Mid-American Conference became the first FBS conference to postpone the fall season because of concerns surrounding the coronavirus pandemic back on Aug 8 but 'reversed field' on Sep 25 by announcing that a season would be played, one which would feature a six-game, conference-only schedule. All 12 MAC schools will open the season Wednesday, Nov 4, and then play their next two games on Tuesdays or Wednesdays before transitioning to Saturdays for the final three weeks. Each team will play five division opponents and one crossover opponent in Week 1, with defending league champion Miami (Ohio) opening at home against Ball State.

Mike Neu started at QB for four seasons at Ball State and as senior, led Ball State to the MAC championship (he was named the MAC MVP and Offensive Player of the Year) He was named the head coach at his alma mater on January 7, 2016 but has yet to having a winning season in four years. The Cardinals are 15-33 over under his tenure, including an 8-24 league record and a 6-18 record in all road games. Chuck Martin coached Grand Valley State (Division II school) from 2004 through 2009, going 74-7 in six seasons. He made the championship game three times, winning twice. He was the offensive coordinator at Notre Dame for the 2012 season, when the Fighting Irish finished the regular season with a 12–0 record and earned a berth in the BCS National Championship Game. It was announced on Dec 3, 2013, that Martin would be leaving his position at Notre Dame to take over as the head coach at Miami University for the 2014 season. He orchestrated a "methodical rebuild" in Oxford, resulting in the RedHawks beating Central Michigan 26-21 in the 2019 MAC championship, giving the school its first MAC title since 2010.

Ball St led the MAC in scoring (34.8 PPG) and total offense (463.0 YPG) and QB Drew Pitt (64.3%, 2,918 yards / 24 TDs and 7 INTs). RB Caleb Huntley (1,275 yards on 5.1 YPC with 12 TDs) and WR Justin Hall (61 catches / 6 TDs) are all back. The defensive outlook is NOT as good, after the Cardinals allowed 31.4 PPG on 424.7 YPG.

Miami QB Brett Gabbert is expected to build off a 'rookie season' in which he passed for 2,411 yards with 11 TDs and eight INTs (he was named MAC freshman-of-the-year). The OL has four returning starters and RB Jaylon Bester is back healthy for his senior year (741 yards and 14 TDs in 2019). The defense is solid by conference standards, allowing 28.1 PPG (4th) on 381.9 YPG (3rd).

The these schools have met the last four seasons in their respective regular season finales but find themselves opening this COVID-shorted 2020 season. Note that after having beaten Ball St in 2016, 2017 and 2018, the RedHawks lost at Ball St 41-27 in 2019's regular-season finale. FYI...Miami had already clinched the East title and a berth in the MAC title game. Methinks that Miami will remember that loss and note that Miami was 5-0 at home in 2019 and will take an EIGHT-game home winning streak into this game. What's more, head coach Chuck Martin owns a 23-8 record in his last 31 MAC contest. 'Short' price. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Big Dog is on Penn St at 7:30 ET.

Ohio St lost a razor-close game to Clemson (29-23) in last year's national semifinals and was ranked No. 2 in the AP's preseason poll, just behind No. 1 Clemson. Clemson got 38 first-place votes to Ohio State's 21 and the Buckeyes finished JUST four points shy of the Tigers' overall point-total. Penn St was 11-2 in 2019, finishing No. 7 in the AP's final poll. The Nittany Lions opened No. 7 in the preseason rankings but like Ohio St, didn't play its first game of 2020 until last Saturday. The two Big Ten rivals had vastly different results last weekend, as the Buckeyes routed the Cornhuskers 52-17, while the Nittany Lions were shocked at Indiana, with the Hoosiers pulling off a 36-35 upset in OT. Ohio St visits Happy Valley as the AP's No. 3-ranked team, while Penn St fell to No. 18.

Ohio St QB Justin Fields comes off an excellent 2019 season (3,273 passing yards with 41 TDs and just three INTs plus 484 rushing yards with 10 TDs) and picked up right where he lost off last Saturday. He completed 20 of 21 (95.2%) for 276 yards with two TDs and no INTs, while running for 54 yards and adding a third TD on the day. He had two WRs top 100 yards, Wilson on seven catches (129) and Olave on six catches (104). Gone from last season's team is JK Dobbins and his 2,003 rushing yards (on 6.7 YPC with 21 TDs), so matching last season's near-perfect run/pass balance (267 RY / 263 PY) may be difficult. Fields led Ohio St in rushing yards in the game but the team did total 215 yards in 4.5 YPC. Ohio State allowed just 13.7 PPG on 260 YPG in 2019 but allowed Nebraska 370 yards last Saturday, although the 'Huskers only scored 17 points.

The Nittany Lions were upset 36-35 at Indiana, as the Hoosiers tied the game with 22 seconds left in regulation on a TD and two-point conversion and then scored another TD and controversial two-pointer to win it in OT (I'd argue Indiana did NOT convert on its two-point try). Penn St allowed just 16.0 PPG on 346 YPG last season so some may ask, how did Indiana score 36 points? Well, I'd like to know how, as well. Penn St held Indiana to a total of just 211 total yards, including 41 rushing yards on 26 attempts (that's 1.6 YPC!). Junior QB Sean Clifford is off a solid sophomore season (2,654 yards with 23 TDs and 7 INTs plus 402 rushing yards and five TDs) and looked very good vs Indiana.  He completed 24 of 35 for 238 yards with three TDs (two INTs didn't help) and also led the team with 119 rushing yards on 7.0 YPC  and a TD. TE Freiermuth led with seven catches (one TD) and WR Dotson caught six balls for an average of 23.5 YPC with one TD. The running game ground out 250 yards on 4.8 YPC.

With Penn State's loss to Indiana last week, Saturday's game between No. 3 Ohio State and No. 18 Penn State has lost some luster but DON'T tell that to Penn St. The Nittany Lions are staring at an 0-2 start for the first time since 2012 and with the specter of losing all championship hopes before November! Penn St beat Ohio St 24-21 here in 2016 but has lost each of the last three meetings. However, those Ohio St wins have been by scores of 39-38, 27-26 (at Penn St) and 29-17, which were all ATS wins by Penn St. I'm not convinced Penn St can pull the upset but feel VERY confident that the Nittany Lions will 'hang in' all game. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Texas at 4:00 ET.

Tom Herman made a HUGE 'splash' at Houston in 2015, leading the Cougars to a 13-1 season which included a 38-24 win over 9th-ranked Florida St as a seven-point underdog. He led Houston to a 9-3 record in 2016 but left before its bowl game to take over at Texas. He's led the Longhorns to THREE straight bowls but his overall record of 25-15 in that three-year span is underwhelming. Texas opened 2020 at 14th in the preseason poll. Mike Gundy took over at Stillwater in 2005 and the Cowboys were just 4-7. However, OSU achieved a winning record in each of the next 14 seasons, fashioning double-digit wins SIX times while going to 14 consecutive bowls (9-5). OSU began 2020 ranked 15th in the AP's preseason poll. 

Texas opened 2-0 this season but then lost back-to-back games against TCU and Oklahoma, dropping the Longhorns from No. 8 in the AP poll to unranked and on the outer edges of the Big 12 race. However, Texas rebounded for a 26-17 home win over Baylor last Saturday. QB Sam Ehlinger has been terrific, completing 61.6% for 1,481 yards with 17 TDs and just five INTs, as 11 different players have caught at least one TD pass. Texas has a WR trio of Moore (21 catches / 15.6 YPC / 6 TDs), Eagles (12 catches / 15.7 YPC / 3 TDs) and Black just eight catches but a 23.5 YPC) plus TE Wiley has six catches but a 24.5 YPC average. Ehlinger is the team's leading rusher as well with 293 yards on 4.5 YPC with seven TDs. A trio of RBs have added 510 rushing yards, as Texas averages 174.8 YPG on the ground (4.7 YPC).

Oklahoma St welcomes Texas to Boone Pickens Stadium 4-0 (3-0 Big 12) and ranked No. 6 in the latest AP poll. OSU won three in a row but then  

had the team's Oct 17 contest with Baylor postponed after the Bears reported a COVID outbreak on their team. OSU was back on the field this past Saturday and beat then-No. 17 Iowa St 24-21. QB Spencer Sanders, who missed two games after suffering an ankle injury early in the opener against Tulsa, returned to complete 20 of 29 passes for 235 yards with one TD (did have two INTs) but also ran for 71 yards and a score. RB Chuba Hubbard carried 25 times for 139 yards for the Cowboys and now has topped 100 yards in THREE straight (478 rushing yards on 5.1 YPC with 5 TDs on the season). Fellow RB Brown has contributed 229 yards (6.2 YPC), as OSU averages 216.3 YPG on the ground. The Cowboys have typically been known for their explosive offenses but the Cowboys' D checks into this contest allowing just 12.0 PPG, 4th-best among FBS teams which have played at least four games.

This is the 35th time the two teams have played (Longhorns own a 25-9 all-time edge) but Oklahoma State has won FOUR of the last five meetings and SEVEN of its last 10 games with the Longhorns. Texas did win 36-30 last year in Austin but the Longhorns haven't won in Stillwater since 2014. So why Texas? To stay relevant, the Longhorns NEED a statement win against Oklahoma State. "I think we're headed towards our 'A' game, and hopefully we can show up and deliver that in Stillwater because we're going to need it," Texas head coach Tom Herman said Monday. "We've got it in us. I know we do. We've been building towards it, for sure." 

The good news for Texas backers is that Herman's Houston and Texas teams are a money-making 16-6-1 ATS as an underdog, which includes 11 OUTRIGHT upsets. Texas needed OT to edge Texas Tech, then lost a two-point decision to TCU and then lost a 4-OT thriller to Oklahoma in a three-week span. The Longhorns returned from an off week to lead Baylor 27-3 before winning 27-16 in holding the Bears to only 316 yards. I'm with coach Herman in believing Texas will bring its "A" game to Stillwater.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET.

Chris Klieman was working for Craig Bohl at North Dakota St and when Bohl left to take the Wyoming head coaching job, Klieman took over and won back-to-back FCS national championships in 2014 and '15, lost in the semis in 2016, and then won back-to-back again in 2017 and 2018. He left to take over at Kansas St in 2019, having gone 69-6 in a five-year span with FOUR national championships. He's the 35th head coach in Kansas St history and replaced the legendary Bill Snyder. The Wildcats went 8-5 in 2019, including a 48-41 win at Oklahoma, as a 23 1/2-point underdog. The Wildcats lost their season opener of 2020 at home to Arkansas St (35-31 as more than a two-TD favorite) but have since gone 4-0 SU and ATS, including a second straight win over Oklahoma. The Wildcats beat the Sooners 38-35 as 28-point dogs, winning in Manhattan against Oklahoma for the first time since 1960.

Neal Brown spent four years as the head coach at Troy. His first season saw his team go 4-8 but the next three seasons the Trojans went 31-8 overall, including winning all THREE bowl appearances. He was announced as the 35th head football coach of West Va on January 5, 2019 and after a 5-7 first season, the Mountaineers are off to a 3-2 start in 2020. The Mountaineers are coming off a 34-27 loss at Texas Tech but will enter the game as owners of the Big 12's stingiest defense. West Va ranks first in the Big 12 in total defense (261.8 YPG) and in scoring defense (21.8 PPG).

Kansas State (currently No. 16 in the latest AP poll) has had a long tradition of excellence on special teams and heading into Saturday's game, the Wildcats have 55 TDs on kickoff or punt returns since 2005, the most in the FBS. Case in point, Phillip Brooks had two first-half punt-return TDs in K-State's 55-14 win over Kansas last week, earning Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week honors. His 189 punt return yards and two TDs were school records. He is the first player in Big 12 Conference history to return two punts for TDs in the same game. Starting QB Slylar Thompson (a senior) was lost for the season on Oct 3 with freshman Will Howard taking over. He looked only so-so in finishing up K-State's win over Texas Tech and then in a 21-14 win at TCU. However, he looked good last Saturday, completing 17 of 24 for 243 yards with two TDs and no INTs. Then again, the opponent was 0-5 Kansas. RB Deuce Vaughn is the team's offensive star, rushing for 309 yards (5.1 YPC with five TDs) and catching 17 passes in which he's averaged 27.7 YPC and added three more TDs. The K-State defense allowed 35 points in each of its first two games but has held opponents to just 16.3 PPG the last three.

I noted above the solid play by West Va's defense and offensively, the Mountaineers have a solid QB in Doege, who is completing 64.1% for 1,389 yards with nine TDs and just three INTs. RB Leddie Brown has 592 yards, averaging 5.8 YPC with seven TDs plus has 19 receptions with two TD catches. WRs Wright (28) and James (23) are possession-type receivers, while Ford-Wheaton has just 13 catches but averages 15.2 YPC with three TDs. I'm not sure about Kansas St QB Howard, while his counterpart (Doege) has thrown for 300-plus yards in each of the last two games. K-State's offense will get its toughest test this season against the West Va D and note that West Va has won FOUR straight against Kansas St including THREE in a row ATS. The unranked team is favored for a reason. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Friday Night Game of the Month is on Wyoming at 9:45 ET.

The MWC originally decided to cancel fall football in August but had a change of heart, ala the Big Ten. MCA and Pac 12. The Mountain West released its full 2020 football schedule detailing a plan for most of its 12 schools to play eight league games in an eight-week span starting Oct 24. The plan is to play a conference championship game on Dec 19. The league has abandoning its divisional structure this season, meaning the participants in the championship game will be the two teams with the highest conference winning percentage. Hawaii opened its season last Saturday with a 34-19 win at Fresno St and Wyoming lost 37-34 in OT at Nevada. It's Hawaii vs Wyoming Friday night in Laramie.

Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich left after last season to take the Washington St job and Hawaii hired Todd Graham on January 21, 2020 to become the 24th head football coach in the school history. Graham coached at Rice for one year and then left days after signing an extension to take the Tulsa job. He spent four years there and left for Pittsburgh, where he stayed just one season, leaving controversially for Arizona St. He spent six years at ASU and had been away from college football for two years when he took the Hawaii job. The Rainbow Warriors rolled up 552 yards (323 on the ground on 6.1 YPC) in a 15-point win in their season-opener. QB Cordeiro threw for 229 yards (two TDs) and ran for a team-high 116 yards (8.9 YPC) and another two TDs. However, the defense allowed Fresno St 409 yards but also forced FOUR turnovers (three INTs).

Craig Bohl spent 12 years at North Dakota St where he went 104-32, winning FCS national championships in his final three years (2011-13). His first two Wyoming teams went 6-18 but he's won EIGHT games in three of the last four seasons (exception was 6-6 season in 2018), with Wyoming going 'bowling' three times (won the last two). Returning QB Sean Chambers broke his left fibula on the Cowboys' third play from scrimmage against Nevada last week and the redshirt sophomore is out for the season. Levi Williams, who played in three games last season, finished the game going 16 of 31 for 227 yards with one TD and one INT plus ran for two TDs The Cowboys trailed 28-6 in the late second quarter last Saturday but tied the game at 28-all with 8 1/2-minutes to go. Nevada took a 31-28 lead but Wyoming sent the game into OT on a FG with 23 seconds left, before losing in OT.

Todd Graham has a checkered past but he's led his teams to 10 bowl berths in his 12 years as a head coach. Hawaii is on the mainland for the second straight week plus I really liked what I saw from Wyoming QB Williams. He led an impressive comeback that just fell short. In Xazavian Valladay (1,265 yards on 5.1 YPC in 2019) he has one of the MWC's best RBs, who ran for a modest 87 yards last Saturday but also caught SEVEN passes. The schools are meeting for just the 5th time as MWC foes, with the home team having gone 4-0 SU. I expect that trend to follow here, as Wyoming was 6-0 SU at home in 2019 and enters this contest with an EIGHT-game winning streak at War Memorial Stadium.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play (Battle of Unbeatens) is on SMU at 9:00 ET.

Luke Fickel was an assistant at Ohio St from 2002-16 but on December 10, 2016, was named as the 39th head coach of the University of Cincinnati, taking the place of the resigning Tommy Tuberville. Fickell's Bearcats went just 4-8 in his first season but 2018 would be a historic turnaround for the program, as Cincy finished with an 11-2 record and a 35-31 victory in the Military Bowl over Va Tech. Fickell was named AAC Coach of the Year for the 2018 season, which was only the third 11-win season in UC history. He led the team to another 11-win season in 2019. The Bearcats reeled off NINE straight wins after falling to Ohio State in the second game of the year but fell two straight weeks to Memphis, in the final regular season game and in the conference championship game. However, for the second straight year, Cincinnati won its bowl game over an ACC team, crushing Boston College 38-6 in the Birmingham Bowl.

The Bearcats opened the 2020 season ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and will travel to Dallas on Saturday night at 3-0 and ranked 9th, when they take on SMU (5-0 and ranked 16th). SMU head coach Sonny Dykes spent three years at La Tech, before getting the head coaching job at Cal, where he flopped (19-30 in four seasons). He got the job at SMU in December of 2017 and in his full season, went 5-7. However, last year's 10-2 regular season got the Mustangs to a bowl game but they were blown out 52-28 by FAU. The team opened 8-0 last season and has now opened 5-0 in 2020 (best B2B starts since the "Pony Express" days of 1983-84). 

The Bearcats didn't start until Sep 16 but won three consecutive Saturdays) over Austin Peay, Army and USF )not exactly a "murderers' row!"). Cincy had a bye week on Oct 10 but then pulled out of last week's road game at Tulsa two days prior to the scheduled Saturday contest due to an outbreak of COVID-19 cases in the program. QB Ridder is coming off two solid seasons, passing for 2,445 yards and 2,164 yards with 38 TDs and 14 INTs. He's completing 60.3% through three games in 2020 for 597 yards but with six TDs and four INTs (not great). RB Doaks is the team's leading rusher with just 145 yards (3.5 YPC) but has added six catches while averaging 21.7 YPC and grabbing two TDs. WRs Young (9 catches) and Jackson (8 catches) are the team's top pass-catchers. Cincy's defense has allowed 17.2 and 20.6 PPG the last two seasons and is allowing just 12.3 PPG through three games in 2020. 

Steve Buechele transferred from Texas and the QB threw for 3,929 yards and 34 scores last year (just 10 INTs). He's off to another excellent start this season, completing 67.2 percent for 1,710 yards with 12 TD and just two INTs. WRs Roberson (22 catches / 21.5 YPC / 3 TDs), Rice (24 catches / 17.1 YPC) and Gray (19 catches / 17.4 YPC / 4 TDs) plus TE Granson (17 catches / 2 TDs) give him plenty of targets. The SMU running game has averaged 204.0 YPG (5.1YPC), led by Bentley (506 yards / 6.8 YPC / 8 TDs).

The SMU defense is allowing 25.4 PPG and shouldn't have too much trouble with a Cincinnati offense that has shown VERY little, so far. Yes, Luke Fickell's team has another excellent defensive team but SMU averages 42.6 PPG and will 'stretch' the Cincy D here at home, where SMU has won EIGHT in a row while averaging 45.0 PPG. The higher ranked team is an underdog in this one for a reason. 

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Big Ten Game of the Year is on Minnesota at 7:30 ET.

The Big Ten returns to the playing field with all 14 teams in action. No. 14 Wisconsin starts things off with a home game against Illinois and SIX games follow on Saturday. The Big Ten is the oldest Division I collegiate athletic conference in the US and currently includes the flagship public university in each of 11 states stretching from New Jersey to Nebraska, as well as two additional public land-grant schools and a private university. It was established in 1895 when Purdue University president James H. Smart and representatives from the University of Chicago, University of Illinois, University of Michigan, University of Minnesota, Northwestern University, and University of Wisconsin gathered at Chicago's Palmer House Hotel to set policies aimed at regulating intercollegiate athletics. Two of that "original seven" (note: University of Chicago left the conference in 1946) meet Saturday in what is surely the most significant contest of the Big Ten's 'Week 1.' when No. 18 Michigan visits No. 21 Minnesota. 

Michigan's Jim Harbaugh was one of the league's most vocal head coaches in getting the Big Ten to return to play. Now, right out of the box, the Wolverines face a VERY tough first game in Minneapolis against the Golden Gophers. Last year's starting QB Shea Patterson had his critics but he did throw for 3,061 yards with 23 TDs and eight INTs. He graduated and Michigan's projected starter, junior Joe Milton, has thrown only 11 passes the last two seasons. Harbaugh wouldn't commit to Milton as his starter, contending redshirt freshman Cade McNamara is still in the running. The running game averaged just 150.7 YPC (on 4.0 YPC) last season, after averaging about 200 YPG the previous three. The team's top-two RBs return in Charbonnet (726 yards / 4.9 YPC / 11 TDs) and Haskins (622 yards / 5.1 YPC / 4 TDs), as do Michigan's top-two WRs, Bell (48 catches / 15.8 YPC / 1 TD) and Collins (37 catches / 19.7 YPC / 7 TDs). Harbaugh always features a strong defense but for the first time since arriving in Ann Arbor in back in 2015, his "D" allowed more than 20.0 PPG (20.7).

While Michigan opens the season with an inexperienced QB, the Gophers have Tanner Morgan, who threw 30 TD passes last season (against only seven INTs) in leading the Golden Gophers to 11 wins (notably, for the first time since 1904), including a 31-24 Outback Bowl victory over Auburn as a seven-point underdog. Leading rusher Smith (1,163 yards / 5.1 YPC / 8 TDs) and record-setting WR Tyler Johnson (86 catches / 1,1318 yards / 13 TDs)) are both gone but RB Mohammad Ibrahim led the team in rushing as a freshman in 2018 with 1,160 yards on 5.7 YPC with nine TDs. He was injured for part of last season but still ran for 604 yards on 5.3 YPC and seven TDs. Minnesota fans will remember that as a freshman, he was the MVP of Minnesota's 34-10 Quick Lane Bowl win by rushing for 224 yards. Rashod Bateman, the team's second-leading receiver a year ago, also returns after catching 60 passes for 1,219 yards (20.3 YPC) and 11 TDs on 60 receptions. DON'T be concerned with Minnesota's offense, which averaged 31.4 PPG (3rd in the Big 10 and 21st nationally). The defense lost its top-three tacklers from a year ago but head coach PJ Fleck has a good feeling about how his defense is progressing Minnesota allowed 22.5 PPG in 2019). "There's going to be a lot of questions that come up every single week," Fleck said. "I'm excited about where our defense is headed. I think I have a good feeling about where we're at, but again you don't know until the lights come on and until these guys are actually playing games."

PJ Fleck 'rowed the boat' at Western Michigan back in 2016, leading the Broncos to a 13-1 season. He used that as a 'launching pad' to get the Minnesota job and in his third season at the school, led the Gophers to an 11-win season (1st since 1904), including that impressive win over Auburn in the Outback Bowl. He now gets this HUGE season-opening game with Harbaugh and Michigan, as the last time Minnesota was involved in a matchup of ranked teams to start a season was 1968. As for Harbaugh, I don't know how anyone can consider him anything but a HUGE disappointment in his return to his alma mater. He's 0-5 against Ohio State, losing 62-39 and 56-27 the last two seasons and is 1-7 SU on the road vs ranked opponents in his tenure at Michigan. I'm "all over" the home dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on LSU at 7:00 ET.

LSU had a "season for the ages" in 2019, going 15-0 en route to winning the national championship. QB Joe Burrow was the runaway winner of the Heisman, as all he did was complete 76.3% for 5,671 yards with 60 TD passes and just INTs. He had an All-Star cast of receivers and Edwards-Helaire (1,441 rushing with 16 TDs plus 55 catches) just may have been the best RB in the nation (I believe the Chiefs may agree with that statement). Almost the entire group of starters were gone but LSU was still ranked No. 6 in the AP's preseason poll. Think the Tigers may have been 'seeded' too high. I'll have plenty to say about LSU in a bit.

Will Muschamp came to South Carolina back in 2016 and while he led the Gamecocks to bowl berths in each of his first three seasons, South Carolina lost two of those three bowls and after a 4-8 season in 2019, his record at the school stood at 26-25. South Carolina opened the 2020 season 0-2, before winning 41-7 at Vandy, as if that really counts. However, maybe South Carolina turned its season around with last Saturday's 30-222 home win over then-No. 15 Auburn. The Tigers led 9-0 and 16-7 before the Gamecocks took an 11-point lead and hung on for a 30-22 win. Auburn QB Nix was intercepted THREE times, all leading to TDs. Finally, with Auburn facing a fourth-and-5 from the 12 with nine seconds to go, Bo Nix's scramble came up short as time expired. A win over Auburn was a LONG time coming, as South Carolina registered its first victory against Auburn since 1933! 

LSU opened the season on a 16-game winning streak but was shocked at home by Miss St, as Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense took apart the LSU defense. CJ Costello, a graduate transfer from Stanford, threw for an SEC single-game record 623 yards and five TDs. That season-opening loss looked bad at the time but looks even worse now, considering that Miss St has lost THREE in a row since that win, scoring a total of just 30 points (10 per game). As for Costello, he's been benched the last two games while throwing one TD pass against EIGHT interceptions. LSU won 41-7 at Vandy (so what) and then lost at Missouri by four points, allowing 45 points (on 586 yards) to a team which came in averaging 15.5 PPG. LSU was supposed to play at Florida last Saturday but the Gators had a COVID-19 outbreak and maybe the extra time was good for the Tigers.

QB Myles Brennan is no Burrow but has thrown for 1,112 yards and 11 TDs with just three INTs. Most of last season's receiving stars are gone but Marshall is back and has 21 catches, averaging 20.7 YPC with seven TDs. The running game is a problem with Edwards-Helaire in the NFL, as it has averaged a woeful 96.7 YPG on 3.2 YPC. Then of course, there is LSU's putrid defensive efforts against any school not named Vandy. QB Brennan is listed as questionable against the Gamecocks because of a lower-body injury sustained against Missouri and head coach Orgeron said the junior could not have played last week if there had been a game. If Brennan is unable to play, one of two freshmen -- Max Johnson and TJ Finley -- or perhaps both would see action in a college game for the first time. "Whoever has the best week is going to start," Orgeron said. "I plan on giving them both a chance during the game. I want to see what they can do. The only way to do it is in live action."

Obviously, I'm hoping Brennan can play but I feel confident the Tigers will be ready to bounce-back either way. Orgeron said the Tigers did "a lot of soul-searching" with the extra time to prepare and that's my expectation as well. South Carolina is off a HUGE win but in reality, Auburn has NOT played like a top-25 team all season (VERY overrated). LSU opened the current season having gone 18-2 in 'Death Valley" the previous three seasons and this is the team's first home game since the Miss St debacle. Brennan or no Brennan, LSU rolls.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* "Big Dog" is on Tennessee at 3:30 ET.

The Alabama–Tennessee football rivalry was always referred to as "The Third Saturday in October." The respective campuses are located approximately 310 miles apart and the game was traditionally played on "the third Saturday in October" each year, prior to the 1992 football season when the SEC split into its Eastern and Western divisions. Once upon a time, before Alabama hired Nick Saban, the Crimson Tide's fabled rivalry game with Tennessee saw the Volunteers dominate their SEC West crossover rival, winning 10 of 12 between 1995 and 2006. However, after Saban took the reins in Tuscaloosa before the 2007 season, it's been all Tide, all the time. Alabama is 13-0 against Tennessee since then, including last year's 35-13 win at home and 11 of those wins have been by double digits. Recent form suggests the second-ranked Tide should make it 14 straight when they visit Neyland Stadium in Knoxville on Saturday for the teams 103rd meeting. However, let's note that the Tide are three-TD favorites and for Alabama backers to win, they'll need a 21-point margin of victory (or more?), to collect the 'CA$H!'

 
The Tide survived a stressful week before their showdown with Georgia last Saturday, as Saban tested positive for COVID-19 on Wednesday. However, THREE negative tests allowed him to coach the team on Saturday night and after trailing 24-20 at the half, Alabama held the Bulldogs scoreless in the second half for an impressive 41-24 win (regulars know that Alabama was my LEGEND Play!). Alabama QB Mac Jones has completed 78.3 percent for 1,518 yards with 12 TDs and two INTs, giving him the nation's top passer efficiency rating of 220.1. RB Harris got off to a slow start but he's run for 358 yards (6.6 YPC) the last two games, while scoring six TDs (he has 499 yards on 6.0 YPC with 11 TDs on the season). WRs Smith (38 catches / 4 TDs) and Waddle (25 catches / 22.3 YPC / 4 TDs) give Jones a dynamic receiving duo. Alabama's defense had struggled through its first 3 1/2 games but maybe it 'found its identity' in the second half vs Georgia. 

Tennessee won its final SIX games of 2019 and opened the 2020 season ranked No. 25 in the AP's preseason poll. The Vols opened 2-0 and visited Georgia on Oct 10 as the nation's 14th-ranked team. The Vols led 21-17 at the half "between the hedges" but would get shut out in the second half of a 44-21 loss. Tennessee welcomed Kentucky to Nashville last Saturday having dominated the series with a 33-2 SU and 26-9 ATS record the previous 35 meetings. Tennessee was 11-2 ATS the last 13 meetings overall and Kentucky had lost 17 straight in Knoxville since winning there in 1984! However, the Vols are coming off their most lopsided defeat at home to Kentucky since 1935, a 34-7 blowout last week in which they made enough mistakes to lose two games. QB Jarrett Guarantano brought out the" boo birds" with consecutive pick-sixes in just over two minutes early in the second quarter, and an interception from reserve quarterback J.T. Shrout set up a Kentucky field goal that made it 17-0." Tennessee has turned the ball over SEVEN times in its last SIX quarters, with Guarantano responsible for SIX of those turnovers.

So why take Tennessee? Alabama is coming off its HUGE win over Georgia and with 13 straight wins over Tennessee can hardly view the Vols as a real threat. Tennessee HAS to be be motivated after its embarrassing loss to Kentucky and it's possible that highly touted true freshman Harrison Bailey will get the start and give the Vols a much-needed spark. No upset expected but like when Alabama failed to cover vs Ole Miss at Oxford on Oct 10 (Rebels were with FOUR points with under four minutes to go), I expect this "Big Dog" to 'bark' loudly.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Louisville at 12:00 ET.

Mike Norvell was introduced as the 24th head football coach of the Memphis Tigers on Dec 4, 2015, making him the youngest FBS head coach in the nation at the time of his hiring (aged 34). Norvell had overseen one of the nation's most explosive offenses at Arizona State under Todd Graham. The Tigers would go 8-5, 10-3 and 8-6 his first three seasons and then in 2019, he delivered one of the best seasons in the program's history, as the Tigers went 11–1 in the regular season and then won the AAC championship game over Cincy. As the highest ranked Group of 5 team in the final CFP poll, they were awarded a New Years' 6 bowl berth to the Cotton Bowl against Penn State. However, Norvell didn't wait, accepting the head coaching job at Florida State the day after winning the AAC title game. FSU has seen a 'revolving door' of head coaches since Jimbo Fisher left and Norvell took over a team off back-to-back losing seasons Not much had gone right for the Seminoles in 2020, who opened 1-3 with that lone win coming over Jacksonville St. However, the Seminoles upset then-No. 5 North Carolina 31-28 last Saturday.

FSU is on the road this Saturday to take on Louisville. Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had a six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinals were unranked in the AP's preseason poll but were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. Louisville allowed three TDs in that contest but the Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western Ky's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. That win saw Louisville rise to No. 18 in the AP poll but NOTHING has gone right since, as the Cardinals will enter on a FOUR-game slide.

FSU has used three QBs so far but redshirt sophomore Jordan Travis had 204 passing yards and 96 rushing yards against Notre Dame in his first career start. FSU lost 42-26 but the Louisville transfer displayed playmaking skills. Travis then threw for 191 yards (on just eight completions) and one TD plus ran 16 times for a career-high 107 yards and two TDs in the upset of North Carolina, Florida State took a big early lead (up 31-7 at the half) but had to hold on for a 31-28 win. The Tar Heels had a chance for a tying FG late but a wide-open drop on what would have been a first down on a fourth down pass, ended the rally. Travis is completing just 54.0% of his passes but leads the team in rushing (342 yards / 5.8 YPC / 4 TDs). A trio of RBs contribute between 160 and 262 yards for a team averaging 183.4 YPG on the ground. However, the FSU defense is allowing 32.4 PPG.

Louisville's season unraveled quickly after its win over Western Kentucky. The Cardinals lost 47-34 at home to then-No. 17 Miami, before playing three straight road games. Louisville was outplayed at then-No. 21 Pitt but lost just 23-20. An embarrassing 46-27 loss at Ga Tech followed but the team HAS to be encouraged by its 12-7 loss at then-No. 4 Notre Dame last Saturday. QB Cunningham is completing 62.2 percent for 1,118 yards with 10 TDs and five INTs, while adding three rushing TDs. RB Hawkins has 519 rushing yards (ranks 4th nationally) on 5.2 YPC with three TDs. WR Atwell is "a player," with 29 catches and four TDs. The Louisville defense really stepped up at Notre Dame, holding the Irish to 338 yards and 12 points (ND entered averaging 40.3 PPG).

"There's a fine line from winning or losing," Louisville head coach Scott Satterfield said. "You have to do the little things correctly in order to give yourself a chance to win. You can go back to last year; how many were so close that we could've won or lost. This year we've been on the short end of those sticks." I'm sure QB Jordan Travis is motivated to face his old team but that motivation works BOTH ways. FSU is allowing 475 YPG and THREE of their four ACC foes have topped 500 yards. Meanwhile, Louisville is allowing only 379 YPG. The game will be Louisville's first at home since that 47-34 loss to then-No. 17 Miami back on Sep 19 and the "desperate for a win" Cardinals catch Florida St off its upset over North Carolina, snapping a seven-game regular season losing streak against top-10 opponents that had gone back to 2016. Louisville is the play.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" LEGEND Play is on Alabama at 8:00 ET.

IMPORTANT UPDATE: I posted this play BEFORE the news that Nick Saban tested positive for COVID-19. The line has dropped since the news and quite honestly, I like the play even more. Saban has prepared his team for a game like this and I expect there be to be a "Win one for the Gipper" mentality running through the veins of all Alabama players. As they say in golf, "Play Away!"

Four of the nation's 10 college football conferences decided not to play fall football this season back in August, including the Big Ten and the Pac 12. While those conferences have reversed their decisions, none of those teams have yet to begin play (that changes very soon). The Big Ten and Pac 12 featured schools in the AP preseason top-25, so the fall out from that has been WAY fewer early season matchups between top25 opponents. In fact, there have been just 10 games played so far in 2020 in which top-25 opponents have squared off. The paucity of top-25 matchups continues this Saturday, with just ONE game featuring top-25 opponents. However, it's fair to say it's a "Big One," as No. 3 Georgia visits No. 2 Alabama Saturday night (8:00 ET on CBS) in Tuscaloosa.

These two national powers haven't met in the regular season since 12105 and believe it or not, the last time the Bulldogs played in Tuscaloosa was 2007. That happened to be Nick Saban's first season with Alabama and Georgia won 26-23 in OT. Saban's first season didn't go very well, as Alabama ended the regular season with a 6–6 record, including a four-game losing streak, featuring a particularly humiliating loss at home to ULM-Monroe and a SIXTH straight loss to Auburn in the Iron Bowl. The Crimson Tide did defeat Colorado in the 2007 Independence Bowl 30–24, to end the year 7–6. Just in case you may be unaware, Saban's done pretty well since then. I don't have time to chronicle his entire record but will note that Saban's won FIVE national s]championships at Alabama since his first, back in 2009 (his third season at Tuscaloosa). Georgia knows all about competing for a national title in that same time frame but the Bulldogs have yet to capture a single title since winning the 1980 national championship led by a freshman Herschel Walker. Ohio State and Georgia were crowned national champions back in 1942 and Georgia claims it as so in its record books. In fairness, Georgia defeated UCLA in the Rose Bowl on January 1, 1943, as NINE ranking authorities listed in the NCAA record books placed the Bulldogs as No. 1. However, don't try to 'sell' that to Ohio St, which Ohio State was named No. 1 in the final AP Poll at the end of November and did not make a bowl appearance. Now to Saturday's game.

The Bulldogs expected Wake Forest graduate transfer Janmie Newman to lead its offense in 2020 but he "opted out" before the start of the season due to COVID-19 concerns. Stepping in is junior Stetson Bennett, who had just 27 pass attempts in 2019 for the Bulldogs. He's completed 63.1% for 689 yards through three games, throwing five TDs, while NOT throwing an interception in 84 attempts. His "go-to" receiver is Jackson, who has 19 catches (15.8 YPC( and one TD. A trio of other WRs have combined for 19 catches as well, averaging only 10.2 YPC. The running game is averaging 172.0 YPG but only 3.8 YPC. White is the team's top RB and he's scored four TDs but has a modest 209 yards and averages just 3.9 YPC. Georgia owns an excellent defense, which helped them open 2-0 with a 37-10 win at Arkansas and a 27-6 home win over then-No. 7 Auburn. Georgia found itself down 21-17 to Tennessee at the half last Saturday but scored 27 points in the second half, while its defense allowed only 71 yards and four FDs after halftime. The Bulldogs held the Volunteers, who came in ranked 14th  to minus-1 yard on 27 rushes.

The Georgia defense ranks first nationally in rushing defense (38.3 YPG), second in total defense (236.7 YPG) and is tied for fifth in scoring defense (12.3 PPG) but will surely be tested by Alabama's offense Saturday night, as the Crimson Tide lead the nation with an average of 51.0 PPG (note: Alabama put up 723 yards last Saturday vs Ole Miss!). QB Mac Jones has seamlessly replaced Tua, completing 79.5% for 1,101 yards (that's 367 per) with eight TD passes and just one INT. He is the national leader in passing efficiency with a QB rating of 220.3. I took the "big points" (24.5 to be exact) last Saturday with Ole Miss against Alabama and easily cashed. Alabama led just 49-45 with under 3 1/2 minutes, before winning 63-48. I wrote in that game analysis that Alabama's running offense had struggled through its first two games, averaging only 110.0 YPG on 3.4 YPC. However, that all changed last Saturday, as Najee Harris rushed for 206 yards and a school-record five TDs. (he now has 10 TDs after just three games / he ran for 1,224 yards on 5.9 YPF with 13 TDs last season). WR Jeudy is now in the NFL but wideouts DeVonta Smith ( 68 catches / 14 TDs in 2019) and Jaylen Waddle are back. Smith leads with 27 catches and Waddle has 19, averaging 20.8 YPC. Then there is Mitchie, who has a more modest 11 catches but averages 27.1 YPC!

There is no denying that Alabama's defense is not up to past standards (it's not even close!).The Alabama D had been 'soft' the first two games, allowing 386.0 YPG, compared to 294 YPG the previous seven seasons. It then got BLASTED last Saturday, as the Tide gave up a school record 643 yards to fast-paced Ole Miss. However, Georgia's offense is pedestrian compared to that of Ole Miss. In fact, Bennett was  the Bulldogs' fourth choice at QB in the offseason. However, first Newman opted out of the season, USC transfer J.T. Daniels wasn't medically cleared for the opener and D'Wan Mathis lasted only 17 passes as the starter before Bennett got his shot. The record is clear, Saban is 21-0 against his former assistants, after besting Lane Kiffin last Saturday. 'Bama was laying more than three TDs against Ole Miss, so a 15 point win was NOT enough to "get the ca$h! Alabama has won the last FIVE meetings with Georgia, with current Georgia head coach Kirby Smith, who was an Alabama assistant under Saban from 2007 to 2015, going 0-2. In the first 'Titanic' matchup of the 2020 college football season, Saban moves to 22-0 against his former assistants, while Smart falls to 0-3 against his former boss and the margin will be "significantly" higher than the posted pointspread. Roll Tide!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Miss St at 4:00 ET.

Texas A&M  opened its season with a highly-disappointing 17-12 home win over Vandy, a team which has since lost two more games, allowing 41 points in each. Next up was a trip to Alabama, where the Aggies fell 52-24 (Alabama QB Mac Jones passed for a career-high 435 yards and four TDs). A&M badly needed a win last Saturday at home vs No. 3 Florida (I had the Aggies!) and got it, upsetting the Gators 41-38. A&M's running game proved to be the difference as the Aggies totaled 205 rushing yards on the ground, led by Isaiah Spiller's 174 yards and two TDs on 27 carries. Senior QB Kellen Mond completed 25 of 35 passes for 338 yards and three TDs, as Texas A&M totaled 543 yards on offense.

The Aggies are on the road this Saturday to Starkville, Ms for a game with Mississippi St. Mike Leach had some coaching debut with the Bulldogs back on Sep 26, opening with a 44-34 win at defending champion LSU. He brought his "Air Raid" offense to the SEC and QB Costello, a graduate transfer from Stanford, shredded the LSU pass D for an SEC record 623 yards passing. However, does the phrase "how the mighty have fallen" ring a bell? Since that season-opening win, Costello and the Bulldogs have lost at home to Arkansas (Razorbacks snapped a 20-game SEC losing streak with the win) and then lost 24-2 at Kentucky, a game in which Costello was benched.

Mond is a quality QB, who enters completing 62.5% for 845 yards with seven TDs and just one INT. Spiller is a solid RB and has chipped in 316 yards, while averaging 6.9 YPC. TE Wyderman leads the team with 15 catches, while WR Chapman leads with three TD  receptions among his 14 catches. However, the A&M defense has NOT looked very good (the Vandy game doesn't count!), allowing a combined 90 points on 946 yards against Alabama and Florida.

Miss St has a non-existent running game, averaging only 38.1 YPG on 2.1 YPC. However, Leach has been winning games for decades with his "Air Raid" offense. Costello has just one TD and seven ITNs the last two games but this guy was a solid QB at Stanford. The LSU game will NEVER be repeated but I expect him to bounce back here. The Miss St defense has played the last two weeks, allowing just 275 yards to Arkansas and then ONLY 157 to Kentucky.

A&M's win last week over No. 3 Florida was its first win over an AP top 5-ranked team in the three-year tenure of coach Jimbo Fisher. Texas A&M had previously gone 3-8 against AP ranked teams under Fisher. I 'smell' a let down and note that Miss St has beaten A&M handily in each of the Aggies last three visits to Davis Wade Stadium, 48-31 (-2.5), 35-28 (+ 10.5) and 28-13 (-1.5). Typical of Leach's teams in his eight seasons at Washington State was for them to play its best against the toughest competition but come up wanting against apparently lesser opponents. Upset alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on NC State at 3:30 ET.

Football in the ACC is unlike basketball. Duke and North Carolina State are just 20 miles apart and play in the same conference but the schools have stopped meeting annually once the ACC expanded and went to a divisional format 15 years ago. They have played only THREE times since then (this will be the fourth meeting), with their last meeting coming back in 2013. David Cutcliffe arrived at Duke for the 2008 season (from Ole Miss) but the team had a losing record his first five seasons, although Duke did go 6-6 in 2012 but lost its bowl game to end 6-7. However, the Blue Devils would put together FIVE winnings season the next six years, going to a bowl game in all five winning seasons. Duke was just 5-7 last season but with three home games to open the 2020 season (MTSU, Elon and Charlotte). The Blue Devils were counting a 3-0 start to propel them to a winning season. So much for that, as COVID-19 has scrambled so many schools' schedules.

Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters returned on offense, so it was expected that  NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) would significantly improve  in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18). NC St knows all about how COVID-19 has impacted a team's schedule. The Wolfpack's original September schedule had them playing at Louisville and Troy, with home games against Miss St and Delaware. NONE of the schools are on NC St's 2020 schedule.

Duke opened the 2020 season losing FOUR in a row, as its defense allowed 32.3 PPG. However, the Blue Devils finally broke into the win column by winning on the road at Syracuse 38-24 last Saturday. Duke showed some offense in the Syracuse game, as the Blue Devils had 645 total yards (third-highest total in program history) and made 36 FDs. The team ran for 363 yards, as Jackson (169 yards / 5.6 YPC) and Mataeo Durant (163 yards / 7.1 YPC and two TDs) became the first pair of Blue Devils ever to rush for more than 150 yards in the same game. However, Duke's junior QB Chase Brice has been inconsistent in 2020, completing only 53.9% of his passes with five TDs and eight INTs. As noted above, Duke's D is not much of a 'stop unit' and let's not put too much stock in the Blue Devils' win over Syracuse, which is just 1-3 with all three losses coming by double digits.

NC State QB Devin Leary was still recovering from COVID-19 at the opening of the season and did not play in the Wolfpack's season-opening 45-42 win over Wake. NC St lost its second game of the season 45-24 at Va Tech, with Leary seeing his first action by going 12 of 16 for 165 yards with one TD and no INTs in relief. He started the following game at then-No. 24 Pittsburgh, leading the Wolfpack to a 30-29 upset win. He threw for 336 yards with four TD passes. He did not have a good game last Saturday in NC St's 38-21 win over UVa (as a TD underdog!), completing just 11 of 25 for 184 yards with two TDs and one INT. The 'star of the game' was NC St's defense, which forced four turnovers, had SIX sacks and held Virginia to just four conversions on 18 third down attempts. The Wolfpack converted those four Cavalier turnovers into 17 points and out rushed UVa by nearly 100 yards. 

This is NC State's first home game in just about a month (hosted Wake back on Sep 19). Leary enters this game with seven TDs and just one INT and the defense has 18 sacks on the season (after getting SIX last Saturday), while the team's veteran OL has not given up a sack in either of the last two games. Great spot for NC St to win and win "by a margin!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Ole Miss at 3:30 ET.

It's a pair of 1-2 SEC teams meeting in Fayetteville on Saturday, as Ole Miss visits Arkansas. B0th schools have new head coaches this season, Lane Kiffin at Ole Miss and Sam Pittman at Arkansas. Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. 

Pittman joined new University of Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema's staff as assistant head coach/offensive line coach and stayed from 2013 through 2015 seasons. Pittman departed Arkansas after the 2015 season to become offensive line coach at the University of Georgia under new head coach Kirby Smart. He garnered a reputation as "one of the best recruiters and offensive line coaches in the SEC and helped Georgia win three consecutive SEC East titles from 2017–2019. He was promoted to associate head coach in 2019  but on December 8, 2019, Pittman was announced as the new head coach at Arkansas.

The Ole Miss offense has thrived under Kiffin, averaging 41.7 PPG after three games. QB Matt Corral is completing 76.1 percent for 1,080 yards (he's topped 300 yards in all three games) with nine TDs and just one INT. His QB Rating of 210.7 ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency. WR Moore already has 31 catches but TE Yeboah is averaging 23.7 YPC and FOUR of his 15 receptions have gone for TDs. The running game offers a nice balance to Corral's passing, averaging 192.3 YPG, with Ealy (243 yards / 5.4 YPC / 4 TDs) and Connor (179 yards / 4.8 YPC / 4 TDs) both contributing. As for the defense, I'll say "no comment" and let these numbers speak for themselves. The defense that has given up 155 points and 641.3 YPG in three outings.

Florida transfer Feleipe Franks has done a nice job for the Razorbacks, completing 64.9% for 730 yards with seven TDs and just two INTs. However, the Arkansas running game is non-existent, averaging 86.3 YPG on just 2.4 YPC and the team has yet to score a rushing TD through THREE games! RB Smith is the team's leading rusher (167 yards / 4.1 YPC) and also leads the team with 14 catches. However, WR Warren has 10 catches, averaging 22.3 YPC and has caught three TDs.

Arkansas is 6-1 SU & ATS in the last seven meetings between these two schools but I really like what I've seen from Ole Miss. The Rebels couldn't keep up with the Gators in their first game (lost 51-35 but gained 613 yards!), then came from two TDs down in the third quarter at Kentucky to win 42-241 in OT the following Saturday. Ole Miss gave Alabama all it wanted last Saturday, trailing just 49-45 with under four minutes to go, before losing 63-48. The Razorbacks FINALLY broke its 20-game SEC losing streak with a 21-14 win at Miss St on Oct 3 and  gave Auburn all it wanted in last Saturday's 30-28 road loss. A controversial ruling allowed the Tigers to get off a late field goal for their 30-28 victory over the Hogs and immediately became one of the hot topics of last weekend, with the consensus seeming to be that officials denied the Hogs what would have been their second victory. Pittman said he talked to John McDaid, SEC coordinator of football officials, and is "at peace" with the issue. "I don't really know what to say," he said at his weekly press conference. "I don't want to go into it, but I heard from the head of officials and I understand what happened now. So now we'll move forward on it."

Pittman may be "at peace" with last Saturday's result but his team got robbed!' Bottom line is that Arkansas enter this game 1-21 SU in its last 22 SEC games and I want no part of them here (in basically a pick'em game) against an Ole Miss offense that leads the SEC in total offense (573 YPG), FDs (86), and passing yards per completion (16.31). Even more impressively, the offense has lost only ONE turnover on an interception, a conference low. The Rebels just put up 647 yards on the 'Bama defense and their 48 points were the most the Tide have given up vs an unranked team since 1936! As they like to say in Oxford, "Hotty Toddy!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Tennessee at 12:00 ET.

Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. Jeremy Pruitt was the DC at Florida St (2013) at Georgia (2014-15) and at Alabama (2016-17), before being hired as Tennessee's head coach in December of 2017. It capped a tumultuous coaching search that followed the firing of head coach Butch Jones and led to the replacement of AD John Currie by Hall of Fame coach Phillip Fulmer. Pruitt finished his first season with a 5–7 record, including 2–6 in SEC play. However, the Vols won their final five regular season games and then capped the year with a 23–22 comeback victory in the Gator Bowl against Indiana. Tennessee opened the 2020 ranked 25th in the AP's preseason poll and with a SIX-game winning streak. Old rivals Kentucky and Tennessee square off Saturday in Nashville at 12 noon ET. 

The Wildcats lost their season-opener at Auburn in a game MUCH closer than the 29-13 final. Kentucky seemingly scored a TD right before the half (was trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six" was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards. Kentucky then lost at home the following Saturday to Ole Miss, failing to hold a 14-point lead in the third quarter, eventually losing 42-41 in OT, on a missed extra-point. However, Kentucky defenders intercepted SIX passes and the Wildcats, despite picking up only 10 FDs, defeated visiting Mississippi State 24-2 for their first victory of the season last Saturday night in Lexington. Kentucky QB Terry Wilson is more of a runner (leading rusher  with 221 yards on 4.6 YPC and three TDs) than a passer (61.3% for 463 yards with two TDs and one INT. The deep owns depth in the backfield and is averaging 212.3 YPG rushing (more on that in a bit). WR Josh Ali is the lone pass-catcher of note with 18 receptions but he's averaging just 11.6 YPC and does not have a receiving TD.

Tennessee won a hard-fought game at South Carolina to open the season (31-27) and then beat Missouri 35-12, gaining 422 yards. That win extended the Vols' winning streak to EIGHT in row, tied with Notre Dame for the longest active among Power-5 schools. The Vols were in Athens, Ga last Saturday and led the then-No. 4 Bulldogs 21-17 at the half, before getting 'rolled' in the second half, as Georgia scored the game's final 27 points for a 44-21 win. Tennessee QB Jarrett Guarantano has completed 62.2% of his passes for 664 yards with four TDs and just one INT. His lone receiver of note is Josh Palmer, who has 14 catches (16.2 YPC) and has caught THREE of Guarantano's four TD throws, A pair of RBs share time, as Chandler has 187 yards (4.7 YPC) and Gray (170 yards (4.7 YPC).

As the teams meet Saturday, here's the rub. Tennessee has dominated this series with a 33-2 SU and 26-9 ATS record the last 35 meetings. Tennessee is 11-2 ATS the last 13 meetings overall and Kentucky has lost 17 straight in Knoxville since winning there in 1984! What changes here? Let me return to Kentucky's running game averaging over 200 yards. The Wildcats ran for 408 yards (7.3 YPC) vs Ole Miss but in their other two games, vs Auburn and Miss St, they've run for an average of just 114.5 YPG on 3.2 YPC. Remember, Kentucky had just 10 FDs vs Miss St last Saturday, while gaining 157 total yards. NO way the Wildcats break their 17-game losing streak in Knoxville this Saturday and the bet says the Vols win "with room to spare!" Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SBC Game of the Year is on UL Lafayette at 7:30 ET.

Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell was named interim head coach when head coach Joe Moglia took a medical leave of absence in 2017. The school announced on January 5, 2018 that Moglia had been medically cleared to return to full-time coaching and would reassume the head coaching position. However, Chadwell was formally introduced as the third all-time head coach at Coastal Carolina on January 18, 2019. Caldwell led the Chanticleers' to a 5-7 season in 2019, with their most notable win coming 12-7 at Kansas. The Chanticleers opened the 2020 season by returning to Lawrence and easily defeating the Jayhawks 38-23 back on Sep 12. They have followed with two more wins and will visit Cajun Field at 3-0 to take on ULL, which is also 3-0 and ranked No. 21 in the latest AP poll.

Billy Napier accepted the head coaching job of the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns back on Dec 15, 2017, giving him his first job as a head coach of a college football team. His first season resulted with the Rajin' Cajuns winning the SBC-West and making a Cure Bowl appearance (lost to Tulane to finish 7-7). ULL won the West again last season, gave Appalachian St all it wanted in the SBC championship game (lost 45-38) and then capped its season with a 27-17 bowl win over Miami-Ohio to finish 11-3. ULL opened the 2020 season by winning 31-14 at Iowa St as a two-TD underdog. That victory is arguably the biggest win in school history, as ULL beat a top-25 opponent on the road for the first time, having gone 0-26 against ranked foes away from home. ULL's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. ULL has since added two wins over Ga State (34-31) and Georgia Southern (20-18) but both games came right down to the wire.

Red-shirt freshman Grayson McCall won the starting QB job for the Chanticleers and has been excellent. He's completing 66.7% for 728 yards with nine TDs and just one INT, while rushing for 139 yards (4.5 YPC) plus three more TDs. C.J. Marable ran for 1,095 yards (5.3 YPC) but has a modest 190 yards this season (4.0 YPC) with three TDs. However, the running game has been good, averaging 198.3 YPG on 4.6 YPC. WR Heiligh has 12 catches (18.3 YPC) with three TDs, TE Likely has seven catches (30.7 YPC!) and three TDs plus WR Brown has six catches (22.8 YPC) with one TD. I will comment on these numbers in just a bit. QB Levi Lewis has been solid for ULL (723 yards with 4 TDs and 3 INTs), backed by a decent running game averaging 168.7 YPG on 5.1 YPC. Mitchell is the best RB, with 210 yards on 8.8 YPC with two TDs. A trio of WRs include LeBlanc (12 catches / 16.2 YPC / 1 TD), Lacy (6 catches / 19.7 YPC / 1 TD) and Pauley (4 catches / 20.5 YPC).

Getting back to the VERY good offensive numbers put up by Coastal Carolina this year, not that the Chanticleers have faced only Kansas (maybe the WORST Power-5 school in the nation), which is 0-3 and allowing 44.0 PPG. Campbell (Big South) is an FCS school is 0-4, allowing 47.0 PPG and Arkansas St is 1-2, allowing 40.0 PPG. I'm NOT all that concerned with ULL's "close calls" against Ga State and Georgia Southern. I'd rather remind all about its win at Iowa St, which is back in the top25 at No. 20, after wins at TCU, a home win over Oklahoma (1st since 1960) and a 31-15 home win over Texas Tech. ULL is 11-2 SU at home under Napier, with one loss coming 17-7 against Appalachian St (in 2019) and against Coastal Carolina a 30-28 in 2018. Rajin' Cajuns WILL remember and an impressive win here will put ULL in the discussion for a Group of 5 bowl bid. Lay the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* "Big Dog" is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.

No. 2 Alabama travels to Oxford Mississippi to take on Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin, who was Nick Saban's offensive coordinator for three seasons at Alabama (2014-16) the Tide won three SEC championships and one national championship in that span but like with all situations involving Kiffin, all separations are at least a little controversial. Saban needs no introduction but here's a quick history of Kiffin.

Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Kiffin's debut for Ole Miss saw his team gain 613 yards but allow 642 to Florida, as Gators QB Trask threw for 416 yards (6 TDs and 0 INTs). However, the Rebels fought back from a 28-14 deficit  in the third quarter last Saturday at Kentucky, with Ole Miss winning 42-41 in OT.

The adage is, Saban never loses against head coaches who worked for him. Saban ran his record to 4-0 against former assistant Jimbo Fisher in a 52-24 victory against Texas A&M last Saturday, making him 20-0 against former assistants. Alabama QB Mac Jones passed for a career-high 435 yards and four TDs against A&M and is completing 74.5% of his passes for 684 yards with six TDs and one INT. He leads the country in passing efficiency with a rating of 222.1. WR Smith leads the team with 14 catches and Washington is right behind him with 13, averaging 21.2 YPC  and hauling in three TDs. Metchie has just seven catches but is averaging a WHOPPING 31.9 YPC with two TDs. What has been missing so far with Alabama's is its running game. It's just two games but Alabama has run for only 110.0 YPG on 3.4 YPC. In comparison, Alabama has averaged right about 210 YPG the last SEVEN seasons. The Alabama D has also been 'soft,' allowing 386.0 YPG, compared to 294 YPG the last seven seasons.

Alabama's Jones has been excellent but so has Ole Miss QB Matt Corral, who has completed 76.7 percent of his passes for 715 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception (he ranks 3rd in passing efficiency with a rating of 211.9). Corral's top target is Moore (20 catches / 15.9 YPC / one TD) but TE Yeboah has been a real playmaker. He's caught eight passes with an average of 21.8 YPC and two TDs. Mingo also has eight receptions (16.0 YPC) and two TDs and Drummond has just two catches with BOTH going for TDs. The Rebels' running game is not all that great but Ole Miss is averaging about 40 YPG more than Alabama (154.5 YPG). 

The Ole Miss defense will NOT win this game (meaning cover) but the Ole Miss offense has the ability to stay within this generous pointspread. That's the play!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Kentucky at 7:30 ET.

Mike Leach is known for building potent offenses, directing passing-oriented teams in a spread offense system known as the "air raid" offense. He helped develop it with Hal Mumme when Mumme was head coach and Leach was offensive coordinator at Iowa Wesleyan, Valdosta State and Kentucky in the 1990s. Leach's offenses with Mumme, and later as a head coach himself, have broken numerous school and NCAA records. led Texas Tech to 10 straight bowls from 2000 through 2009 but was fired under controversial circumstances. Leach surfaced at Washington St in 2012 and after three losing seasons (two at 3-9), led teh Cougars to FIVE straight bow games. Leach agreed to be the head coach of the Mississippi State Bulldogs on January 9, 2020.

Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. The 2018 season was a historic one for the Wildcats, as they snapped a 31-year losing streak to Florida, finishing 9-3, only the fourth time in school history that the Wildcats have won at least nine games. Kentucky then defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl on January, 1st, 2019 giving the Wildcats their first 10 win season since 1977, and only their third in school history. Stoops was named SEC Coach of the Year. The 2019 season was one of overcoming adversity. After a 2-3 start in which they lost all of their QBs to injury, Kentucky turned to WR Lynn Bowden Jr. to take over at QB. With a revamped offense, the Wildcats finished the regular Season 7-5 routing Louisville 45-13 on Senior Day. Kentucky then capped the season with a thrilling win over Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, as the Wildcats scored the winning TD with 15 seconds remaining for an 8-5 finish.

Leach's debut for Miss St saw the Bulldogs upset defending champion LSU 44-34 on the road. C.J. Costello (a graduate transfer from Stanford) set a single-game SEC record with 623 passing yards (he threw 5 TDs). However, Miss St fell back to earth last Saturday, losing 21-14 at home to Arkansas (as a 16.5 favorite), which has lost 20 straight SEC games. Costello threw for 31 3 yards but had just one TD and three INTs. Costello has thrown 60 passes against LSU and 59 vs Arkansas, while the Miss St running game has produced a total of just 96 yards in those contests.

Kentucky lost its season opener 29-13 at then-No. 8 Auburn, but the game was pretty close. The Wildcats seemingly scored a TD right before the half (were trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six) was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards. Kentucky was home last Saturday against Ole Miss and couldn't hold a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter, eventually losing 42-41 in OT, on a missed extra-point. 

QB Wilson threw for 239 yards vs Auburn but against Ole miss had just 151 passing yards, completing 14 of 18; However, he added 129 yards rushing with three TDs, as two Kentucky RBs topped 100 yards rushing as well. The Wildcats ran for 408 yards on 5.6 YPC. Not many teams lose when gaining over 400 yards on the ground.

Running the ball effectively will keep Costello and Leach's "air raid" offense off the field and Kentucky sure doesn't want to open 0-3. Kentucky entered 2020 having gone 12-3 SU at home the previous two seasons. The fact that the home team is 5-0 SU & ATS in the last five meetings between these two schools works for Kentucky. As does the fact that Miss St had gone 0-6 ATS as a rod dog the last three seasons, before its shocking win at LSU. The pointspread says "close call but I'm saying W-I-P-E-O-U-T!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Game of the Year is on Oklahoma at 12:00 ET.

Oklahoma & Texas meet in the Red River Showdown for the 116th time. Texas holds a 62-48-5 edge all-time but the Sooners have won 14 of the 21 meetings since 2000. However, the "vibe" is different in 2020 for MANY reasons. The Red River Showdown is one of the most unique games in college football. The are fans split down the 50-yard-line. The State Fair of Texas is bustling just outside the Cotton Bowl gates and the bus rides by the teams through the fairgrounds to the stadium are jam-packed with thousands of fans lining the streets either cheering or jeering. COIVID-19 has changed all that. "To pull into the fairgrounds without anybody there will be a little eerie," Sooners head coach Lincoln Riley said. "It'll be different, there's no doubt. And that's just 2020 right now, I guess."

What also makes this great rivalry different in 2020 is that the Sooners come in 1-2 (0-2 Big 12) after being beaten 37-30 at home by Kansas State last week. Oklahoma lost in Ames for the first time since 1960 and has now dropped back-to-back regular-season games (lost 38-35 at home to Iowa St on Sep 26) for the first time since 1999. The Sooners were No. 3 in the AP poll two weeks ago but the loss to Iowa St dropped them out of the top-25 after spending 64 consecutive weeks inside the AP top-25. Texas also lost last Saturday 33-31 to TCU, when the Longhorns fumbled at the Horned Frogs goal line on a 1st and goal play with about four minutes to go. Texas (1-1 / 0-1 Big 12) remained in the rankings last Sunday, although the 'Horns dropped from No. 9 to No. 22. Last Saturday's results have Oklahoma and Texas meeting with NEITHER school in the top-20 for the 1st time since 1999!

Oklahoma has a freshman QB in Spencer Rattler and he's completing 73.4% with 10 TDs and four INTs. CeeDee Lamb (62 catches / 21.4 YPC / 14 TDs) is now in the NFL but WRs Rambo (11 catches / 18.2 YPC / 4 TDs) and Mims (10 catches / 12.3 YPC / 2 TDs) are quality players plus RB Stogner has 11 catches (averaging 15.8 YPC) and fellow RB hall has eight receptions goo for three TDs. However, the running game is NOT up to usual standards, averaging only 122.7 YPG on 3.6 YPC. Oklahoma's erratic defensive play has hurt them in the past in the CFP and this year's unit has allowed 38 and 37 points in the team's back-to-back losses.

Texas QB Sam Ehlinger has seemingly been around forever and in three games, has thrown 14 TDs passes against only two INTs while averaging 308.0 YPG passing. Unlike Rattler, Ehlinger has an excellent rushing game to balance the Texas offense, averaging 191.3 YPG on 5.5 YPC.  He's also has a solid trio of WRs in Moore (11 catches / 18.2 YPC / 4 TDs), Schooler (10 catches / 12.3 YPC / 2 TDs) and Eagles, who may have just five receptions but he's averaging 22.2 YPC and three of his five catches have gone for TDs. However, very much like Oklahoma. the Texas defense has allowed 87 points in its last two games (really should have lost at Texas Tech two Saturdays ago) on 899 yards!

One team's season will be 'in tatters' after this game and my bet says the Sooners just WON'T lose THREE in a row. No John Blake sighting this Saturday at the Cotton Bowl. For those who need a reminder, Blake served as the head coach for the Oklahoma Sooners from 1996 to 1998, compiling a career record of 12–22, which is the worst three-year stretch at the University of Oklahoma football history. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Texas A&M at 12:00 ET.

The Florida Gators will take a 2-0 record (both SEC wins) and their No. 4 ranking in the AP poll into College Station on Saturday to face No. 21 Texas A&M (1-1 start with both games also being conference contests). Florida QB Kyle Trask replaced an injured Feleipe Franks last season and went from obscurity to folk hero in Gainesville. He ended the season with 2,941 passing yards (25 TDs / 7 INTs), as the Gators finished 11-2 after a 36-28 Orange Bowl win over Virginia (final ranking of No. 6 in the AP poll). Jimbo Fisher completed his second season with Texas A&M in 2019, going 8-5, after going 9-4 in his first season (both seasons ended with bowl wins). 17 wins (including two bowl wins) over two seasons while playing in the SEC West is not bad but NOT what A&M is paying Fisher a 'ton' of money for. He's had two straight top-10 recruiting classes and the A&M fans and boosters want more.

Florida passed for 213.5 YPG in 2018, while rushing for 213.2 YPG but last season, passed for 300.8 yards and ran for just 129.8. Head coach Dan Mullen loved the results (11-2 record) but was hoping for some more balance in 2020. However, Trask has been OUTSTANDING in two wins, completing 71.8% for 684 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT. 6-5 TE Pitts has 12 catches, averaging 18.9 YPC with six TDs. The running game has been somewhat pushed to the 'back-burner,' averaging a modest 138.0 YPG with only one rushing TD. The Florida D has looked pretty vulnerable, allowing 29.5 PPG on 471.0 YPG. 

Texas A&M was ranked 13th in the AP's preseason poll but played an uninspiring season-opener at home on Sep 26, edging Vandy just 17-12. Up next was Alabama last Saturday and while A&M gained 450 yards and scored 24 points, the Aggies allowed 52 points 554 on yards, with Alabama QB Mac Jones throwing for a career high 435 yards and four TDs. A&M QB Kelly Mond did little against Vandy but played well against 'Bama's defense, throwing for 318 yards with three TDs. RB Spiller ran for 946 yards (5.4 YPC) with 10 TDs last season but while he's averaging 7.5 YPC through two games, he's gained a modest total of 142 yards rushing.

A&M remained in the top-25 even after the loss to Alabama (at No. 21) but will have to win here, to stay ranked come Sunday. The Florida D is vulnerable and its pass D has just ONE interception, despite facing 80 pass attempts. Mond has the talent to match Trask. Fisher knows plenty about Florida as during his time at Florida St, he was 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS vs Florida. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 4:00 ET.

Legendary Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making the 31-year-old the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946). The "Boy Genius" would go 4-12 in his first season and then after opening 1-3 in his second season, was fired. He's since made a one-year controversial 'stop at Tennessee, spent three-plus seasons at USC after Pete Carroll bolted to the NFL to escape NCAA sanctions and then was OC for Nick Saban at Alabama. He then landed at FAU in 2017 where he went 11-3, 5-7 and 10-3, leaving for Ole Miss last season before FAU was headed back to the Boca Raton Bowl, which the Owls had won back in 2017. Kiffin's debut  for Ole Miss saw his team gain 613 yards but allow 642 to Florida, as Gators QB Trask threw for 416 yards (6 TDs / 0 INTs). Florida also gained 196 yards on the ground (6.8 YPC). Ole Miss QB Matt Corral threw for 395 yards (3 TDs and 1 INT) but scoring 35 points doesn't help much when one's team allows 51!

The Rebels now head out on the road to play at Kentucky, which lost  29-13 last Saturday but played a very competitive game in losing at then-No. 8 Auburn.  The Wildcats seemingly scored a TD right before the half (were trailing 8-7 at the time) but a review said no (sure looked like  a TD to me). Auburn then picked off a pass at the goal line on the VERY next play and while Auburn's "pick-six) was waived off because of another questionable call, the Wildcats never really recovered, Kentucky was within 15-13 in the fourth quarter but a fumble and then a failed 4th-down conversion attempt on back-to-back possessions, led to Auburn TD drives of 23 and 27 yards. Kentucky held Auburn to just 15 FDs and 324 yards, so expect the Ole Miss offense to have a tougher time here on the road than it did last week at home.

Kentucky hired Mark Stoops back on November 27, 2012, He was just 2-10 in his first season and then followed with back-to-back 5-5 seasons. However, he's led the Wildcats to FOUR straight winning season from 2016-19 and to four consecutive bowls, as well. The 2018 season was a historic one for the Wildcats, as they snapped a 31-year losing streak to Florida, finishing 9-3–only the fourth time in school history that the Wildcats have won at least nine games. Kentucky then defeated Penn State in the Citrus Bowl on January, 1st, 2019 giving the Wildcats their first 10 win season since 1977, and only their third in school history. Stoops was named SEC Coach of the Year. The 2019 season was one of overcoming adversity. After a 2-3 start in which they lost all of their QBs to injury, Kentucky turned to WR Lynn Bowden Jr. to take over at QB. With a revamped offense, the Wildcats finished the Regular Season 7-5 routing Louisville 45-13 on Senior Day. Kentucky then capped the season with a thrilling win over Virginia Tech in the Belk Bowl, as the Wildcats scored the winning TD with 15 seconds remaining for an 8-5 finish.

Trey Wilson started at QB for Kentucky last week and threw for 239 yards (one TD / one INT), with WR Ali catching nine balls for 98 yards, while RB Smoke ran for 62 yards on just seven attempts (8.9 YPC). However, three TOs did in the Wildcats. Kentucky should fare MUCH better against an Ole Miss defense which looked pretty helpless against Florida. Ole Miss enters having lost SEVEN straight on the road, with the Rebels last road win coming at Arkansas back in the 2018 season (note: the Razorbacks have currently lost 20 straight SEC games). The Ole Miss defense has allowed an average off 32.4 PPG in that seven-game road slide, while Kentucky plays its home opener having gone 12-3 SU at home the last two seasons. Lay the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Memphis at 3:30 ET.

COVID-19 has surely impacted the Memphis season as the Tigers opened their 2020 season back on Sep 5 with a 37-24 home win over Arkansas St (Tigers we favored by just under three TDs). The program has since had to pause activities and cancel games against Houston and UTSA, so the team's second game of the current season (its conference-opener at SMU) is being played almost a FULL month after its season-opener (unprecedented break between Games 1 and 2?). Unlike Memphis, Sonny Dykes' SMU Mustangs are 3-0, after a 50-7 rout of Stephen F. Austin last week.

The Tigers lost head coach Mike Norvell to Florida St, right after Memphis won the AAC championship game. That victory gave the Tigers a 12-1 record and earned the school its first-ever New Year's Six bowl berth (lost 53-39 to Penn St). Taking over for Norvell is Ryan Silverfield, whose only game as a head coach was last year's Cotton Bowl. He gets credit for keeping QB Brady White and WR Demonte Coxie at Memphis. White threw for 4,014 yards (454 vs Penn St in the Cotton Bowl), becoming only the second Memphis QB to do so. He had 33 TDs and only 11 INTs, with Coxie as his main target (76 catches / 1,276 yards / 9 TDs). What Memphis didn't count on was RB Kenneth Gainwell, who had 1,459 rushing yards (6.3 YPC / 13 TDs) as a freshman plus added 51 catches for 610 yards with three more TDs, to opt-out of the season due to COVID-19 concerns. White completed 27 of 37 passes for 280 yards and four touchdowns in the win over Arkansas State and  has passed for more than 7,500 yards to go along with 63 TD in his career at Memphis. Coxie had eight catches (one TD) vs Ark St but the star was TE Dykes, who caught 10 passes and two TDs, coming back off an injury that forced him to miss almost all of 2019.

SMU head coach Sonny Dykes spent three year s at La Tech, before getting the head coaching jog at Cal, where he flopped (19-30 in four seasons). He got the job at SMU in December of  2017 and in his full season, went 5-7. However, last year's 10-2 regular season got the Mustangs to a bowl game but they were blown out 52-28 by FAU. Steve Buechele transferred from Texas and the QB threw for 3,929 yards and 34 scores last year (just 10 INTs He's off to a good start this season, completing 64 of 94 passes for 852 yards with seven TDs and two INTs. WRs Roberson (17 catches / 3 TDs), Gray (8 catches / 19.5 YPC / 2 TDs) and Rice (13 catches / 18.5 yPC) plus TE Granson (eight catches / 2 TDs) give him plenty of targets. The SMU running game has averaged 26.7 YPG (6.0 YPC), led by Bentley (2380 yards / 10.6 YPC / 7 TDs) and McDaniel (293 yards on 5.0 YPC).

Why not SMU as a small home dog? After all, SMU has already played three games and Memphis head coach Silverfield admitted the team will have to rotate more players in and out in all three phases of the game. He added that "a majority" of his team is back and he is confident the players are in a good spot to play. "We feel like we are getting back where we need to be," he said. "Still not at full strength, nor will we be at kickoff. But we are getting to where we need to be to where we feel comfortable having normal practices." As for SMU's Dykes, he told MustangVision that it will be hard to get a read on Memphis given its layoff, but he pointed out that the Tigers have won a lot of games over the last three years and that they will be ready to play. "They may not have played for a while, but those guys have a lot of skins on the wall," Dykes said. "They have won a lot of football games."

In fact, Memphis has "won a lot of football games" against SMU. Last year's 54-48 win was not as close as the final score, as SMU scored two TDs (plus converted both two-point tries) in the games' final eight minutes (Memphis led, 54-32). Let me add that the Tigers' win in 2019 was their SIXTH straight over SMU, including wins of 28-18, 51-7 and 48-10 in Dallas. Note that while RB Gainwell opted-out, RB Clark gained 105 yards (5.3 YPC) in the Tigers' game vs Ark St, leading the way for Memphis to rush for 222 yards on 4.7 YPC (team averaged 186.7 YPG with Gainwell). That Ark St team Memphis beat 37-24 went into Kansas St and beat the Wildcats 35-31 as a two-TD underdog the very next week. Ask Oklahoma if Kansas St is any good? Meanwhile, SMU's 3-0 start has come against a 1-3 Texas St team (3-9 in 2019), 1-1 North Texas (4-8 in 2019) and SF Austin, an FCS school. The "price is right" for a SEVENTH straight win for Memphis over SMU, which practically guarantees a cover.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on West Va at 12:00 ET.

The Baylor Bears saw games with La Tech (9/12) and with Houston (9/12) postponed (due to COVID-19 issues) but finally got on the field last Saturday with a home contest against Kansas. Dave Aranda, who was assistant head coach and DC at LSU from 2016-19, was hired at Baylor on January 16, 2020, replacing Matt Rhule who left to become the head coach of the Carolina Panthers. QB Charlie Brewer threw for 142 yards with a TD and versatile senior Trestan Ebner scored rushing and receiving TDs plus returned two kicks for scores (100 and 83 yards) in a 47-14 home win over Kansas. Baylor takes to the road this Saturday to face on Big-12 rival West Va, which has opened 1-1 after losing 27-13 at then-No. 15 Oklahoma State last weekend. West Virginia fell behind 17-0 in the first half and managed just one TD (Winston Wright's 70-yard scoring pass from QB Jarret Doege).

Baylor will need MUCH more from Brewer in this one, as he has thrown for more than 3,000 years the last two seasons with a 40-16 TD/INT ratio. The running game totaled 203 yards on 4.7 YPC, besting last season's average of 166.4 YPG. However, let's remember Baylor was hosting Big-12 doormat Kansas, which fell to 6-84 in conference play since 2010 (note: Jayhawks are also 2-52 SU on the road in that span against all opponents). Gaining just 352 yards against a Kansas defense that allowed 475.2 YPG last season (122nd), is NOT acceptable. Baylor's defense, which returned just two starters, wasn't tested by an inept Kansa team but that WON'T be the case against MOST (all?) of its other conference foes.

West Va QB Jarrett Doege was sacked five times vs Okla St but still managed to throw for 285 yards (70-yard TD pass to Wright, helped). West Va had a non-existent rushing game last season (973.3 YPG ranked 128th of 130 teams) but Leddie Brown ran for 104 vs Okla St and has 227 yards in the team's first two games. West Va did allow two, 100-yard runners against the Cowboys but overall, held an Okla St team that averaged 453.9 YPG last season to a modest 342 yards.

These schools have met as conference foes eight times and Baylor is 0-4 SU in Morgantown. Brewer passed for 277 yards and two TDs in 2019's 17-14 home win over West Va but back in 2018 at Morgantown, threw three INTs in a 58-14 loss. Note that while Baylor flourished with an 11-3 season in 2019, West Va was just 5-7. Yet, the Mountaineers held Baylor to season-lows in FDs (17) and total yards (287) in that three-point loss. Baylor expects to end its 0-4 run in Morgantown but as Mick Jagger once sang, "You Can't Always Get What You Want!" Home dog wins outright.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Va Tech at 8:00 ET.

Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-2). NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. I noted last week in taking NC St over Wake Forest that the Wolfpack returned TEN starters on offense, so we should expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve in 2020, as NC ST had averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak. Talk about 'hitting the nail on the head!' NC St won 45-42, rolling up 463 yards. 

The Wolfpack travel to Blacksburg, Va Saturday night to face Va Tech, which will be playing its first game of the 2020 season. Justin Fuente used back-to-back seasons of 10-3 and 9-3 (2014 and 2015) at Memphis to land the Va Tech job on November 29, 2015 He replaced the retiring Frank Beamer and in his first season in Blacksburg, Fuente led the Hokies to a 9-3 regular season record and a trip to the ACC Championship, representing the Coastal division, The Hokies defeated the Arkansas Razorbacks 35-24 in the 2016 Belk Bowl, overturning a 24-0 deficit at halftime and winning three consecutive bowl games for the first time in the program's history. Virginia Tech finished the season ranked #16 in both the AP and Coaches Poll. However, while Fuente's led the Hokies to bowl games in each of the last three seasons, Va Tech has lost each one.

Looking at NC State's win over Wake, last year's starting QB Devin Leary did not play because he missed too much practice due to COVID-19. Bailey Hockman was the surprise starter and had a decent game, completing 16 of 23 for 191 yards with a TDP and an INT. However, NC St rolled up 45 points due to a rushing attack that ran for 270 yards on 5.5 YPC. RBs Person (99 yards on 7.1 YPC with two TDs) and Knight (97 yards on 8.8 YPC with one TD) led the way. The troubling issue lingering from the win was that NC St's defense allowed Wake forest to score 42 points while gaining 32 FDs (note: Wake scored 13 points, 10 of them late, on 15 FDs against Clemson).

Va Tech has to be really anxious to finally play a game and  after six- and eight-win season the last two, Fuente's 'star' has dimmed. Seeing a 15-game winning streak over rival Virginia in the team's regular season finale really hurt, as did a 37-30 loss to Kentucky in the Belk Bowl. However, Va Tech has NINE starters back on offense and 10 more on Defense. Longtime defensive coordinator Bud Foster retired after last year's bowl loss but Justin Hamilton takes over and he was a Foster disciple. The team's back-seven is excellent and don't expect NC St to run at will like it did last week, as Va Tech allowed 139.3 YPG on the ground last season (46th in the nation).

NC St had SEVEN home games in 2019 but in team's five away games, the Wolfpack D allowed 38.4 PPG, as NC State lost by an average margin of 18.4 points. No. 20 Va Tech wins this one "with room to spare!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Virginia at 4:00 ET

David Cutcliffe arrived at Duke for the 2008 season (from Ole Miss) but the team had a losing record his first five seasons, although Duke did go 6-6 in 2012 but lost its bowl game to end 6-7. However, the Blue Devils would put together FIVE winnings season the next six years, going to a bowl game in all five winning seasons. Duke was just 5-7 last season but with three home games to open the 2020 season (MTSU, Elon and Charlotte). The Blue Devils were counting a 3-0 start to propel them to a winning season. So much for that, as COVID-19 has scrambled so many schools' schedules. Duke instead opened at then-No. 10 Notre Dame and lost 27-13 (not bad as 3-TD dog) but last week's 26-6 home loss to BC was not 'pretty.' 

The Blue Devils are back on the road this Saturday at ACC rival Virginia, which will be playing its first game of 2020. Bronco Mendenhall came to UVa after 11 seasons at BYU where he led the Cougars to a bowl game each season. He took over in 2016 and the Cavs finished 2-10 (so much for his 11-year bowl streak). However, he's led the Cavs to three straight bowl games from 2017-19 and last season, won the school's first-ever ACC Coastal title plus ended an embarrassing 15-year losing streak to Va Tech with a 39-30 victory.

Duke's new starting QB, Chase Brice (a Clemson transfer), has so far flopped. He averaged 238.0 YPG passing but in 79 attempts, has yet to throw a TD pass (has two INTs). It sure doesn't help him that Duke's running game looks pretty sad, averaging 109.5 YPG on 3.7 YPC. The Notre Dame loss seemed like a positive, until Duke had five TOs against BC, including FOUR inside the BC red zone.

Without a game under its belt, Virginia is somewhat of a mystery. Replacing QB Perkins (3,538 passing yards with 22 TDs and 769 rushing yards with 11 TDs) will not be easy. We'll see who gets the start. The running game should be fine, as Wayne Taulapapa may have had just 473 yards but he's a tough runner who scored 12 TDs. More importantly, the OL returns all five starters, who are also seniors. The defense loses three key players but NINE starters are back, plus 15 returning players made at least one start in 2019.

Mendenhall is a quality coach and his team has put together back-to-back winning seasons while going 12-1 SU at home (7-0 last season). In his four-year rivalry with Cutcliffe, he's 4-0 SU and ATS with an average winning margin of 17.3 PPG. Lay the small number.

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Big 12 Game of the Year is on Iowa St at 1:30 ET.

Toledo made Matt Campbell its permanent head coach at the end of 2011, making him the youngest head coach in the FBS at 32-years-old. He coached four full seasons at Toledo (2012–201), going 35–15. The 2015 team peaked at No. 20 in the AP Poll. He left Toledo before its bowl game in 2015 and took the Iowa St job. His first team went 3-9 but the last three seasons (2017-19) he's taken the Cyclones to three straight bowl games. Iowa St was ranked 23rd in the AP's preseason poll but lost its season-opener on Sep 12, 31-14 to ULL at home, as almost a two-TD favorite. It marked ULL's first-ever win over a top-25 opponent on the road (had been 0-26 against ranked foes away from home). The school's only other win over a top-25 team was in 1996 at home against Texas A&M. The Cyclones have not played since and now play at TCU on Saturday in their Big 12 opener.

This contest is not just TCU's conference opener but it's the Horned Frogs' FIRST game of 2020. TCU head coach Gary Patterson took over at TCU when Dennis Franchione left to take the Alabama job (that' didn't go well but it's a story for another day) and in his 19 full seasons, he's led TCU to 15 winning seasons and 16 bowls (10-6). TCU's 'glory years' were 2008-11, when the school went 45-5 over four seasons. TCU finished 7th, 6th, 2nd and 14th in the final AP rankings during that stretch (2010 team went 13-0, including a 21-18 Rose Bowl win over Wisconsin). However, TCU enters 2020 off a 7-6 record in 2018 and a 5-7 record in 2019. TCU has just nine games on its current schedule, so it's almost a sure thing that the Horned Frogs will fail to reach eight wins for a third straight year. That hasn't happened since the 1998 team went 8-4 to end a drought of 14 seasons the school failed to reach eight wins (OK, maybe the team gets a 'pass' this year, due to COVID-19).

ISU's Brock Purdy has already set 21 school records in just two seasons at QB. He fought injuries all season but still led the Big 12 in passing (306.3 YPG), while throwing 27 TDs and just nine INTs. Just five starters return on offense but a key returnee is Breece Hall, who averaged 101.6 YPG on the ground with nine TDs in his eight starts as a freshman. ISU may have the best (deepest?) group of TEs in CFB, as the trio of Kolar, Allen and Chase accounted for 75 catches and 10 TDs. The defense returns NINE starters and don't be fooled by that loss to ULL. The Ragin' Cajuns scored on an 85 KO return and an 83-yard punt return plus added a 78-yard TD pass that accounted for 29% of its 276 total yards.

We haven't seen TCU play yet but we know that the offense returns only THREE starters, losing four of five OL. QB Max Duggan started the final 10 games for TCU last season but finished with modest totals of 2,007 passing yards and 15 TDs. The defense was first in the Big 12 in yards allowed (336.9 YPG) and 4th in points allowed (26.4 PPG) but again, only FOUR full-time starters are back.

With ISU's recent surge and TCU's recent demise, the Cyclones have won TWO of the last three meetings (2017-19), including a 49-24 romp in Ames last season, when they ran up 436 yards on a much better defense than TCU will field here in 2020. Purdy had an 'ugly' effort vs ULL (16 of 35 for 145 yards with no TDs and one INT) but I feel strongly he'll bounce back here. What's more, TCU's starting QB Max Duggan has been battling a heart condition that led to him having a procedure back in mid-August to correct it. He was cleared to play on Monday but who knows? His likely replacement would be sophomore Matthew Downing, who has not taken a snap since 2018 and has 10 career pass attempts. ISU is not often a road favorite but the last three seasons under Campbell, the Cyclones are 5-2 ATS in that role. HUGE play on Iowa St.

Good luck...Larry

 My 9* Eye-Opener is on Louisville at 12 noon ET.

The only game played between ranked opponents prior to this Saturday (Sep 26) was last Saturday's 37-24 win by No. 17 Mia-Fl over No. 18 Louisville. There are three top-25 matchups on Sep 26, including No. 21 Pitt hosting No. 24 Louisville. The Panthers (2-0, 1-0 ACC) get their third straight home game to open the season, after wins over Austin Peay (55-0) and Syracuse (21-10). The Cardinals (1-1, 0-1 ACC) hope to 'right the ship' after a 47-34 loss at home to Miami. This marks Louisville's first road game of 2020.

Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St. The Cardinal were solid in their season-opening 35-21 win. Louisville allowed three TDs in that contest but the Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western Ky's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. However, the Louisville D was not up to the challenge vs Miami, which rolled up 4763 yards. That said, the Louisville offense put up 30-plus points for the second straight game, with 516 yards (and 29 FDs) against a strong Miami defense. QB Malik Cunningham has thrown for 650 yards with six TDs and just two INTs, while the running game has averaged 176.5 YPG (Hawkins has 235 yards on 5.1 YPC). Outstanding WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards vs Western Ky and then added eight receptions for 114 yards with two TDs vs Miami.

Pitt  head coach Pat Narduzzi is in his sixth season and has led the school to a modest 38-29 record (includes TY's two wins. He's taken Pitt to a bowl in four of his first five seasons but Pitt has lost THREE of the four). Senior QB Kenny Pickett is in his third year as the starter but he's throw for only 492 yards with three TDs and one INT in the team's 2-0 start. he gets little help from his running game, which averages 137.0 YPG on 3.5 YPC. The Panthers defense has shined through two wins, allowing 154.0 YPG (third-best in the nation), including only 26 rushing yards per game, giving them the top-ranked rushing defense in the nation.

That said, Pitt's first two opponents have been FCS Austin Peay and Syracuse, which has scored a total of just 16 points in opening 0-2.Louisville's offense has great balance (see above) and is averaging 32.5 PPG on 501.5 PPG to open its season. I'm a big fan of Satterfield and the Panthers are a poor 8-14-1 (40%) ATS as a home favorite under Narduzzi. In QB Cunningham, RB Hawkins and WR Atwell, Louisville owns the three-best offensive players in the game. Pitt last started a season 3-0 back in 2014 and I don't the Panthers open 3-0 this season. I'm calling for an OUTRIGHT Louisville win but YES, I'll take the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* ACC Game of the Year is on NC State at 8:00 ET.

Dave Clawson is in his seventh season at Wake Forest. He opened with back-to-back season of 3-9 but has led Wake to four straight bowls the last four years 30-22 overall0, winning three bowls in a row before last year's 27-21 loss to Michigan St. A fifth straight winning season (and bowl trip) may be asking "too much" for the Demon Deacons in 2020, as Clawson unexpectedly had to replace QB Jamie Newman (2,868 passing yards with 26 TDs and 574 rushing yards with 6 TDs), who is a graduate-transfer at Georgia. The multi-tool QB salvaged Wake's 2018 season and led Wake to a 7-1 start in 2019, before injuries set in. The Demon Deacons routed NC State 44-10 on Nov 2 and at 7-1, were ranked 19th in the AP poll. However, Wake stumbled to a 1-4 finish. Wake was originally expected to open  at Old Dominion and follow with home games against Appalachian St and Villanova but COVID-19 had other ideas. Wake instead opened against No. 1 Clemson last Saturday and offered little resistance in a 37-13 loss. Clemson 'called off the dogs' with a 37-3 lead and 10 unanswered fourth-quarter points allowed Wake to earn (?) a 'backdoor cover!'

Wake travels to Raleigh on Saturday night to take on NC State, which has yet to play a game. The Wolfpack's original September schedule had them playing at Louisville and Troy, with home games against Miss St and Delaware. NONE of the schools are on NC St's current 2020 schedule. Dave Doeren is in his 8th season at NC State and after a 3-9 'rookie' year,' led the Wolfpack to FIVE straight winning seasons and bowl berths (3-20. NC St opened 4-2 in 2019 but lost its final SIX games (also 0-6 ATS), finishing 4-8. TEN starters return on offense, so expect NC St's PPG (just 22.1 last season) to significantly improve  in 2020. After all, the Wolfpack averaged 30-plus PGG in FOUR of the five seasons during their bowl streak (2014-18).

Sam Hartman replaces Newman at QB for Wake but he was just 11 of 21 for 182 yards against Clemson and when he was in, Wake accounted for just THREE points. Wake's running game gained just 37 yards on 34 attempts and the passing game was severely hampered when WR Sage Surratt (66 catches for 9 TDs before getting hurt in the team's ninth game and winding up with shoulder surgery), "opted out" prior to the season. 

True, NC State St is "no Clemson" but the home team has dominated this series the last two-plus decades, going with a 19-4 SU and 18-5 ATS. Last year's game was a "no contest," as Wake won at home, 44-10. However, Newman  had 307 yards passing and rushing, while accounting for five TDs (3 TDP and two rushing scores). As noted above, he's now at Georgia. NC St opened last season 4-0 at home but was never the same after that 44-10 loss at Wake. The Wolfpack lost their final three home games but all came vs bowl-bound opponents Clemson, Louisville and North Carolina. Prior to NC St's home loss to Clemson on Nov 16 of 2019, the Wolfpack were on a 15-2 SU run at home,  Note that the last time NC St hosted Wake was in 2018 and the Wolfpack were 19 1/2-point favorites. That makes Saturday's pointspread (I got NC St minus-2) look pretty tempting. "Big Play" here on the Wolfpack!

Good luck...Larry

My CFB 10* Revenge Game of the Month is on Louisville at 7:30 ET.

Mark Richt's first season at Miami was 2016 .The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after a 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Richt abruptly resigned after Miami's 35-3 Pinstripe Bowl loss to Wisconsin in 2018. His DC Manny Diaz had already moved on to Temple as the new Owls' head coach but he returned to Miami. Pretty convoluted, right? Miami struggled for most of 2019, going just 6-6 in the regular season. The 'Canes then lost 14-0 to La Tech in the Independence Bowl, as the Bulldogs became the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. Pretty sure Miami hasn't included that factoid on its resume.Louisville had to replace Heisman-winner Lamar Jackson after the 2018 season (he won the Heisman in 2017) and the Cardinals went from 8-5 to 2-10. However, Scott Satterfield came to the rescue for the start of the 2019 season. He had led Appalachian St to four straight bowl bids from 2015-18, going 40-11 (.784), overall. Satterfield restored some glory to the program in 2019, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St.

Both schools have opened 1-0, as Miami won its 14th straight home opener 31-14 over UAB and Louisville won at home over Western Ky, 35-21.The Hurricanes lost several players to either graduation, the NFL or opting out due to coronavirus concerns. That group included leading rusher Deejay Dallas, leading receiver K.J. Osborn, leading tackler Shaq Quarterman, top cornerback Trajan Bandy and the leader in sacks Greg Rousseau, with 15.5. However, in D'Eriq King (a Houston graduate transfer), the 'Canes have an electric dual-threat QB, King passed for 144 yards and one TD and added 83 rushing yards and another TD. That performance extended his active NCAA-record streak of 16 consecutive games with at least one TD pass and one TD run. Carson stepped in as the team's featured back and gained 134 yards (7.9 YPC) while scoring two TDs. Miami's known for its "D" and the team's "stop-unit" didn't disappoint, holding the Blazers to 14 points of 285 yards.

Speaking of "playing defense," Louisville allowed three TDs in its win over Western Ky but one needs to look MUCH deeper than the final score to objectively judge the team's defensive effort. The Hilltoppers were held to just 12 FDs and only 248 total yards! Western KY's first two TDs came on 'drives' of ONE and FOUR yards, following a dropped snap by the punter and a blocked punt. The third score came on a 37-yard run against backups late in the fourth quarter. Offensively, the Cardinals had a nice effort. They had four plays of more than 40 yards and junior QB Micale Cunningham completed 19 of 34 passes for 343 yards with three TDs and just one interception. WR Tutu Atwell (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs in 2019) had a team-high seven catches for 78 yards. However, with extra attention being paid to Atwell, fellow WRs Dez Fitzpatrick and Braden Smith each had 110 yards in receptions (four catches each, averaging 27.5 per!). RBs Hawkins and Hall combined for 137 yards on the ground, averaging 5.5 YPC.

Miami rolled at home last year 52-27 over Louisville but the Cards' 2019 defense allowed 33.4 PPG (109) on 439.9 YPG (102nd). This season's D was terrific last week (see above) and while Miami's "O," led by King will be a tougher assignment, I 'love' the "revenge angle" in this matchup. After all, Miami is just 4-10 SU in road and neutral site games the last two seasons (including 0-2 in bowls, losing by a combined scores of 49-3). Miami will basically have to win here to cover and I'll take Satterfield over Diaz ANYTIME on the sidelines!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Southern Miss at 7:30 ET.

La Tech has had stability on the coaching sidelines, as Skip Holtz is entering his eighth season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2019 marked the SIXTH consecutive season in which he'd led the Bulldogs to a bowl game. What's more, his Bulldogs have won EACH one. In last season's Independence Bowl, La Tech beat Miami-Florida 14-0, becoming the first Group of 5 school to shut out a Power-5 school in a bowl game since the BCS/CFP era began in 1998. La Tech was supposed to open at Baylor last Saturday but that game was  postponed due to COVID-19. That makes this Sep 19 game at Southern Miss the school's 2020 opener.

Southern Miss opened its season at home back on Sep 3 against South Alabama and the Golden Eagles lost 32-21 as almost two-TD favorites. It was  no fluke, as the Jaguars ran up 526 years (363 passing / 163 rushing), as South Alabama snapped a 15-game road losing streak (last won 19-8 at Troy back on 10/11/17). Jay Hopson began his fifth season in Hattiesburg and he had produced a winning season in each of his first four, three times getting Southern Miss to a bowl game (team was 6-5 in 2018 and fell short of bowl-eligibility due to a canceled game with App St due to a hurricane). However, he resigned following the South Alabama loss. Interim head coach Scotty Walden was previously co-OC and is now the youngest head coach in the FBS at 30 years old. 

La Tech reached 10 wins in 2019 for the first time since 1983 and went 6-0 at home for the first time since 1973. Coming anywhere near 10 wins this year will be near-impossible, as the Bulldogs are currently scheduled to play just 11 games, assuming there are no more COVID issues. QB J'Mar Smith will be sorely missed, as he threw for 2,977 yards (18/5 ratio) and ran for 4 TDs as a senior. He ended his career winning his final 10 starts. His replacement will be either sophomore Aaron Allen or Abilene Christian transfer, Luke Anthony. FIVE of the team's top-six pass catchers return but none had more than Smoke Harris' 47 catches and he averaged just 7.4 YPC. Senior RB Henderson is back and he ran for 1,062 yards (5.6 YPC) and 15 TDs last season. However, the defense returns just TWO starters (nine of top-12 tacklers are gone) from a unit that allowed 21.8 PPG (30th) on 377.7 YPG (53rd).

The bright spot in Southern Miss' season-opening loss was QB Jack Abraham, who completed 69% of his passes and threw for 314 yards in 32 attempts without an INT (also didn't throw a TD). The running game remains a mess, as the team averaged just 117.5 YPG (121st) last season and was able to garner only 95 yards (2.6 YPC) against South Alabama. The defense can't be as bad as it showed vs South Alabama and I expect a big bounce-back effort by the Golden Eagles.

Southern Miss has been to 18 bowls from 1997-through 2019 (a 23-year span) and while I wouldn't typically play a team right after its head coach resigned, I almost have to believe that the players will rally around the 30-year-old Walden. Abraham had a good game passing back on Sep 3 (see above) and should 'love' going up against a La Tech defense that returns just two starters, having lost all four starting DBs. Southern Miss has had two-weeks-plus to 'stew' over that loss to South Alabama and I expect at least a two-TD margin of victory over La Tech, playing its first game of 2020. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* "signature" 37-Club Play is on Kansas at 10:00 ET.

Coastal Carolina visited Lawrence last season on Sep 7 (2nd of the season for both schools) with the Chanticleers upsetting the Jayhawks, 12-7 as a seven-point underdog. It was hardly a classic, as neither team gained 300 yards (Coastal outgained Kansas 291-280). Kansas took a 7-0 lead in the first quarter on a 41-yard TD run but NEVER scored again. CJ Marable caught a 20-yard TD pass in the second quarter for Coast Carolina (miss PAT) and then added a short TD run midway into the 3rd quarter (failed two-point conversion). Marable finished with 148 rushing and scored both TDs for the Chanticleers. There was no scoring the rest of the way, as Coastal Carolina held on for the five-point win, despite THREE missed FGs by PK Massimo Biscardi.

Coastal Carolina was scheduled to host Kansas on Sep 26 of 2020 but COVID-19 has played havoc with the schedules of schools that are playing this season. The two schools kept the meeting but Coastal Carolina has to return to Lawrence again, for this meeting. That HAS to be an advantage for Kansas, which has suffered through a decade of mediocracy fostered by David Beaty, Charlie Weis, and Turner Gill. Les Miles went 112-32 (.778) in 11 full seasons as LSU's head coach (was fired after a 2-2 start in his 12th year), leading the Tigers to 11 bowls and two national championship games (won it all in 2007 but his 13-0 team lost to Alabama in 2011). Miles is tasked with changing the losing culture at Lawrence and said after last year's loss to Coastal Carolina that it was a game the Jayhawks should have won. "I'm not happy," Miles said. "This is not how I saw it going. This is not how our team saw it going. Our guys played with their hearts on their sleeves and did everything they could possibly do to win this game."

RB C.J. Marable (1085 YR on 5.3 YPC with 11 TDs / 38 catches with three TDs) will again be the focal point of the Chanticleers' offense plus benefits from four OL returning. Payton and Carpenter both made starts at QB last season and while both return, redshirt freshman McCall may push for a starting job. Coastal Carolina allowed 30.5 PPG (85th) and the defense may not be any better in 2020.

Kansas sure has its weaknesses but junior RB Pooka Williams (1,061 YR / 5.3 YPC) is KU's first offensive player to earn 1st-team All-Big 12 status in back-to-back seasons. QB Carter Stanley (24 TDs / 11 INTs) graduated and senior MacVittle (who red-shirted LY) is expected to play. The good news is that the team's top-two receivers return in Parchment (65 catches / 7 TDs) and Robinson (45 catches / 8 TDs).The Kansas D ranked 120th in scoring D (36.1 PPG) and 122nd in total D (475.2 YPG), which is fairly typical of that unit's performance the last decade.

Most close to program say that Kansas is probably two recruiting classes away from respectability but "The Hat" knows how to coach and knows more than a little about "revenge games." The Jayhawks will play only 10 games in 2020 and the school's nine-game conference schedule begins in two weeks (Sep 26). A loss here would be a devastating way to open. I'm laying the points.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Ultimate Underdog is on Western Ky at 8:00 ET.

Western Ky began the transition to NCAA Division I FBS as an Independents, in 2007 and was considered a reclassifying school for both the 2007 and 2008 seasons due to NCAA rules. Western Ky QB legend Willie Taggart returned to his alma mater as head football coach in 2010. The Hilltoppers went 2-10 in their first year under Taggart but he is credited with getting WKU's football program back on track after posting back to back 7–5 regular seasons in 2011 and 2012. The school wasn't invited to a bowl in 20011 but in 2012 the school's first FBS-level bowl game invite came the Little Caesar's Bowl. Taggart left WKU to accept the head football coach position at South Florida, prior to that bowl contest. Bobby Petrino stayed for one season but then Jeff Brohm posted an outstanding 30–10 record from 2014-16. He left for Purdue and Mike Sanford would last two disappointing seasons. Tyson Helton got the job for 2019 and he won C-USA Coach of the Year (9-4 season, including a bowl win).

Louisville has rich FB tradition but after Lamar Jackson left for the NFL, the team flopped to 2-10 in 2018. However, Scott Satterfield left Appalachian St and restored some glory to program, as Louisville had six-game improvement by going 8-5 (best turnaround by a Power-5 school), including a 38-28 bowl win over Miss St..15 starters return, including QB MicaIe Cunningham (2,065 passing yards & 22-5 ratio plus 482 YR / 6 TDs), leading rusher Javian Hawkins (1,525 RY / 5.8 YPC / 9 TDs) and WR Tutu Atwal (70 catches / 18.2 YPC / 12 TDs). The defense HAS to get better, as Louisville allowed 33.4 PPG (109th) on 439.9 YPG (102nd).

Western Ky has 16 starters back including NINE from a defense that allowed just 20.1 PPG (22nd) on 335,5 YPG (24th). The unit's top-6 top tacklers are back. RB Gaej Walker is back after gaining 1,208 yards on 5.0 YPC with eight TDs. Starting at QB will be Maryland transfer Tyrell Pigrome (7 career starts). These teams met in Nashville last season, with Louisville winning handily, 38-21. However, Western KY finished the season on an 8-2 run after that loss, including a 23-20 bowl win over Western Michigan. What has me playing on the Hilltoppers here is that they went 4-0 ATS as a road underdog last season, giving them a two-year run of 8-1-1 as road underdogs. That's an 89% winning situation. Take the points!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Game of the Week is on Navy at 8:00 ET.

The 2020 college football season will surely be "unlike any other." Just ask BYU, as NINE of the 12 schools on its original schedule have decided to NOT play in 2020. BYU plays football as an Independent and has scrambled to patch together a 2020 schedule that at the moment contains just EIGHT games, only two of which were on the school's original schedule (Houston and North Alabama, an FCS school). The first two games on BYU's 2020 schedule are contests against two of the nation's three service academies. The Cougars open Labor Day evening at Navy and play their second game Sep 16 at Army.

BYU's current head coach is Kalani Sitake, who took over in 2016. The Cougars went 9-4 in his first season, capping the year with a win in the Poinsettia Bowl. However, BYU followed with a 4-9 bowl-less 2017 campaign and in 2018, the team's win in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl allowed them to finish above .500 at 7-6. Sitake was feeling some 'heat' from the BYU "faithful" in 2019 after a 2-4 start but a five-game winning streak made BYU 7-4 bowl eligible and Sitake was rewarded with a contract extension through 2023. However, the Cougars lost their regular season final 13-3 at SD State and then lost the Hawaii Bowl to Hawaii 34-30, finishing at 7-6, again. Would BYU 'take back' that contract extension if it could?

Navy's Ken Niumatalolo took over for Paul Johnson back in 2008 and has led the Midshipmen to 10 winning seasons (and bowls) in his 12 years at the school. However, he and Navy entered the 2019 season off a brutal 3-10 year in 2018. The school's losing streak didn't last long, as the Midshipmen authored one of the finest single-season turnarounds in FBS history by going from 3-10 to 11-2, after beating Kansas St 20-17 (OT) in the Liberty Bowl. Navy's Malcolm Perry set a FBS record for rushing yards by a QB with 2,017, averaging 6.8 YPC while scoring 21 rushing TDs. Navy led the nation with 360.5 YPG on the ground, averaging 6.1 YPC while scoring 52 rushing TDs. Perry is gone but senior Dalen Morris takes over triple-option and had a strong preseason camp after appearing briefly in four games over the past two seasons. Navy returns its top-three RBs, including FB Jamlae Carothers (734 yards on 6.6 YPC and 14 TDs) and will once again feature a 'deep' group of RBs. Defensively, Navy was greatly improved last season, as after allowing 33.5 PPG on 426 YPG in 2018, the team allowed just 22.3 PPG last season (skewered by allowing 52 in a loss at Notre Dame) on 314 YPG (ranked 16th among FBS schools).

Getting back to BYU, the Cougars dealt with numerous injuries to last season's offense, including to starting QB Zach Wilson. Wilson was recovering from shoulder surgery early in the 2019 season but is healthy and set to go. All five OL starters return but no RB ran for more than 359 yards in 2019 (team averaged just 159.1 YPG on the ground). Three standout WRs all graduated. but the good news is that TE Mark Bushman decided to return for his senior year. He had 44 catches last season with four TDs (has 125 catches in his career). BYU's defense allowed a credible 25.5 PPG last season and will return seven starters.

BYU's 'patchwork' 2020 schedule opens this cross-country trip to Annapolis and the game was not announced until August 6th, the Cougars have not had a lot of time to prep for Navy’s triple option. As MTSU learned on Saturday at Army, that can be 'deadly!' Now BYU is a MUCH better team than MTSU but also, Navy is a MUCH better team than Army. no 42-0 blowout here but at this 'price,' Navy is my Game of the Week!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* NCAAF 2020 Opener is on Army at 1:30 ET.

Middle Tenn St was expected to open its season Sep 5 at Duke, coming off a 4-8 season. 2019 was an aberration for the Blue Raiders, as MTSU had been bowl-eligible in NINE of the last 10 seasons. However, in the era of COVID-19, plans tend to change more often than not. The Blue Raiders will instead open their 2020 season by traveling to West Point to take on the Black Knights at Michie Stadium. Army is coming off a HUGELY disappointing 5-8 season in 2019 (more later) but talk about changing plans! Of the first SEVEN schools on Army's original 2020 schedule (from Sep 4 through Oct 24) the Black Knights won't play a SINGLE one. The biggest 'loss' being Oklahoma's first visit to Michie Stadium (on Sep 26) since 1946 being canceled. And so it goes. Army does have a 12-game season scheduled, beginning with a first-ever meeting with MTSU.

MTSU's Rick Stockstill enters his 15the season in Murfreesboro and he's led the Blue Raiders to EIGHT bowl games, although the school has gone just 2-6 SU and ATS. QB Asher O’Hara was an adequate passer last season (62.7% / 2,616 YP / 20-8 ratio) and he was also MTSU's best runner. He gained 1,00 yards on the ground, averaging 5.2 YPC while scoring nine TDs. The problem was, NO other RB reached 300 yards rushing. MTSU added two Power-5 transfers at the RB position but both opted out. Defense has never been a MTSU strength and after allowing 29.9 PPG last season, maybe it's a good thing that only THREE starters return.

Jeff Monken took over the Army football program in 2014 and after 4-8 and 2-10 seasons, left the Blacks Knights to seasons of 8-5, 10-3 and 11-2 from 2016 through 2018. Each of the seasons were capped by a bowl win The 2017 team tied the school record for most wins in a season when it beat SD State in the Armed Forces Bowl and then the 2018 team broke the school record for wins when it CRUSHED Houston 70-14 in the same bowl the following year. Maybe more importantly, Army beat Navy THREE straight in that span, while capturing the school's first Commander-in-Chief's Trophy since 1996 in 2016, then following up by winning that trophy again in both 2017 and 2018.

However, much like MTSU, 2019 was a HUGE disappointment for the Cadets of West Point. Army opened last season with a 'shaky' 14-7 win over Rice (as 23.5 favorites), extending its winning streak to 10 in a row. That streak was snapped the next week at Michigan but a 24-21 loss in OT at The "Big House" was hardly cause for concern. Army would win its next two games over UTSA (31-21) and Morgan St (52-21) but then the 'wheels came off.' Army would lose SEVEN of its final nine games, beating only sad-sack UMass (1-11 in 2019) and VMI, an FCS school. A crushing 31-7 to Navy was a fitting end to a dismal season.

Army has 13 starters back, including SEVEN from a defense that allowed 23.0 PPG on 342.0 YPG. Starting QB Hopkins is gone but both Jabari Lewis and Christian Anderson made starts last year. Lewis is the likely starter, after making five starts. Army's rushing attack averaged 297.2 YPG last season on 5.2 YPC and should give the MTSU defense fits, as Stockstill's "D" hasn’t faced the option since a 24-6 loss to Navy in the Armed Forces Bowl (note" Navy ran for 366 yards on 5.5 YPC). Making matters worse, this trip to West Points wasn’t added to MTSU's schedule until August 10. With COVID-19 limiting all teams prep time last spring and this summer, properly preparing for the option seems like 'a bridge too far.' Don't forget, MTSU went 0-6 SU on the road last season, losing on average by 16.8 PPG. I'm expecting a COMFORTABLE Army win.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on Clemson at 8:00 ET.

Clemson is playing in the national championship game for the FOURTH time in five years and comes in as not only the defending champs but with a 29-game winning streak. However, Clemson is the No. 3 seed and will play the role of underdog when it takes on No. 1 LSU. No one could seriously argue against LSU being the No. 1 seed (and favorite). That claim was punctuated by its 63-28 rout of No. 4 Oklahoma in the semifinals (more shortly). Clemson edged No. 2 Ohio St 29-23 in the other semifinal, a game which could have gone either way.
Joe Burrow and the LSU offense 'steals' most (if not all) of the headlines but Clemson’s offense is similarly dangerous. QB Trevor Lawrence has 3,431 passing yards with 36 TDs and just eight INTs. FIVE of his INTs came in Clemson's first three games, meaning he threw just THREE over his last 11 games, while throwing 31 TDs (he has 22 TDPs and zero INTs in 180 pass attempts over his last seven games). Lawrence also has 514 rushing yards with eight TDs. RB Travis Etienne has 1,536 rushing yards / 8.0 YPA / 18 TDs) as well as 32 catches (1,932 scrimmage yards, 22 combined TDs). Etienne caught three passes for 98 yards and two TDs against Ohio St. Higgins has 56 catches (19.9 YPC / 13 TDs) and Ross 61 catches (12.9 YPC / 8 TDs). Clemson's D ranked first in the nation during the season in both scoring D (10.6 PPG) and total D (224.7 YPG). Clemson did allow Ohio St to gain 516 yards but Ohio St's 23 points were more than 25 points less that the team's nation's-best average of 48.7 PPG.

Joe Burrow was the runaway Heisman winner and entered the game against Oklahoma leading the nation's No. 1 offense (554.5 YPG), while averaging 47.8 PPG (3rd-best). All Burrow and LSU did was score 49 points in the first half against the Sooners, as Burrow threw for seven TDs (four to WR Justin Jefferson). Burrow would add a rushing TD in the second half of the 63-28 victory, finishing with 493 passing yards and eight total TDs. Burrow will enter this game completing 77.6% for 5,208 yards with 55 TDs and only six INTs. LSU’s is the first team in history with a 5,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher (Clyde Edwards-Helaire 1,304 / 6.6 YPA / 16 TDs), and two 1,000-yard receivers (Ja’Marr Chase 1,559 / 20.8 YPC / 18 TDs & Justin Jefferson 1,434 / 14.1 YPC / 18 TDs). Edwards-Helaire was nursing a hamstring injury and carried just twice for 14 yards vs Oklahoma  but he's had two weeks to get healthy. Lost in LSU's offensive 'explosion' was the fact that the team's oft-criticized defense held Oklahoma to 322 yards, far below its 554.2-yard average coming into the game.

Is LSU the "irresistible force" which can't be stopped? Clemson's offense averaged 46.5 (4th) during the season on 547.7 YPG (3rd), so don't sell it short. Then there's that Clemson D and if any unit can somewhat hold Burrow and Co. in check, it would be Clemson's.  Note that Clemson had out-gained 28 consecutive opponents before being out-gained by 99 yards by Ohio State.It's hard not to like (love?) Ed Orgeron but Clemson's Dabo Swinney reign of postseason 'terror' began with a 25-24 win over LSU in the 2012 Peach Bowl. Clemson's game-winning points came with just 1:18 to play against Ohio St and its D then sealed the win with an end zone INT with just 37 seconds to play. With that win, Swinney pushed his bowl mark to 9-2 SU and postseason ATS record to 10-1 since 2012. Throw in the fact the No. 1 seed has not won the national title in the first five years of the College Football Playoff and Clemson plus the points looks even better. In fact, top seeds have twice bowed out in the semifinals and are 0-3 in the title game. Make that 0-4. "Orange is the new Black?" How about "Clemson is the new Alabama!"

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Jan Game of the Month is on Sou Miss at 11:30 a.m. ET.

This year's Armed Forces Bowl (at Fort Worth, Texas) features 6-6 Tulane of the AAC and 7-5 Southern Miss of C-USA. However, Tulane and Southern Miss were once both members of C-USA, and this "Battle for the Bell" series owns a 30-game history. Southern Miss own a 23-7 record in the rivalry, which is being contested for the first time since 2010. It pits a pair of schools separated by just 113 miles of interstate highway. The Green Wave stumbled at the end with losses in FIVE of their final six games, including the last three, but will make their second consecutive bowl appearance after a four-year absence. The Golden Eagles miss out at an opportunity at the C-USA crown by dropping their final two games but are returning to bowl play after being left out last season despite reaching the six-win threshold.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! Tulane opened the 2019 season 5-1 and a SECOND straight winning season seemed like a "sure thing." However, Tulane has lost FIVE of its last six (only win coming against 3-8 Tulsa) and now must win here to replicate last season's 7-6 mark. Dual-threat QB McMillan has 2,229 yards passing with 14 TDs and 10 INTs but leads the team in rushing with 704 yards (4.6 YPA / 12 TDs). Depth is the key to Tulane's running game, as FIVE more RBs chip in between 240 and 569 yards, as the Green Wave ranks 11th by averaging 251.4 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has been solid at home (has allowed 19.2 PPG) but the "stop unit" allowed 35.2 PPG on the road, a big reason Tulane went just 1-5 away from home.

The Golden Eagles turned the ball over a total of EIGHT times in their final two regular-season games, falling 28-10 at home to Western Kentucky and 34-17 at FAU. QB Jack Abraham has thrown for 3,329 yards with 18 TDs and 15 INTs. He has two solid WRs in Jones (66 catches) and Watkins (55 catches / 18.6 YPC). The running game is a true weak link, averaging only 122.8 YPG (118th) on 3.6 YPA. However, Southern Miss has averaged 27.8 PPG (74th) on 411.3 YPG (59th). The defense has played reasonably well, allowing 350.3 YPG (36th) and 25.9 PPG (54th).

It's my belief that Southern Miss meeting rival Tulane is a motivating bonus factor. The schools faced each other every season from 1979-2006, then again for a home-and-home in 2009 and 2010. The Golden Eagles were left out of the bowl season last year despite a 6-5 record (note: their schedule last season was trimmed to 11 games when a September contest was canceled as Hurricane Florence threatened the Atlantic Coast). However, 'bowling' has been a "regular thing" for Southern Miss, as the Golden Eagles mad 17 bowl appearances in the 21-year span from 1997-2017. That's in stark contrast to Tulane, which needs a win here for just its THIRD winning season in the previous 17 seasons!

There is a GREAT chance that Tulane's outstanding ground game (see above) will NOT be effective against a Southern Miss rush D allowing just 111.8 YPG (18th) on  3.4 YPA! I also really like the "bowl experience" that Southern Miss holds over Tulane. QB Jack Abraham has had more than a month to get over a 34-17 loss at Florida Atlantic in the finale, one in which he threw FOUR interceptions and was sacked three times However, let's NOT ignore that he became just the THIRD quarterback in school history to pass for 3,000 yards in a season in 2019 and has completed 70 percent of his passes in two seasons as a starter! He''ll face a Tulane defense that allowed an average of 35.7 PPG in going 1-5 over its last six contests. Throw in the fact that  Southern Miss has won the last SIX meetings between the one-time rivals and taking a TD seems awfully 'juicy' to me!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on Cincinnati at 3:00 ET.

The Cincinnati Bearcats suffered a 42-0 road loss at Ohio State early in the season and didn't lose again until back-to-back games at Memphis to end the season. Cincy lost 34-24 at Memphis on Nov 29 and then met the Tigers on Dec 7 in the AAC title game (again in Memphis), falling 29-24 on a late TD.  Third-year head coach Luke Fickell, leads Cincy into this year's Birmingham Bowl, seeking a second straight 11-win season.  Steve Addazio was the first BC coach to get the Eagles to a bowl in SIX of seven seasons but was abruptly fired following their upset win at Pitt in the regular season finale. Yes, BC was a 'bowl regular under Addazio but he was only 42-42 in his tenure (team never won more than SEVEN games in any season) and was 1-3 in bowl games (last year’s bowl was cancelled to due inclement weather). BC has hired Ohio State’s DC Jeff Hafley to take over next season but promoted WR coach Richie Gunnell to serve as the interim head coach for this contest.

If that wasn't enough turmoil, offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian has also left the program to serve in the same role at Northwestern plus more notably, star running back AJ Dillon, who rushed for 1,685 yards (5.3 YPA) and scored 14 TDs this season, has declared for the draft. He is sitting out this game, so backup David Bailey will see a larger role, after rushing for 816 yards (5.8 YPA) and seven TDs. Sophomore QB Dennis Grosel in now in charge, after junior Anthony Brown was injured halfway through the season. Both have similar TD-to-INT ratios (Brown's was 9-2 and Grosel's is 9-3) but while Brown completed 59.1% of his passes, Grosel is completing just 48.6%. The team's leading receiver has only 27 catches and one wonders how BC's offense will fair (without Dillon) against the Cincy D (more later). As for BC's defense, the Eagles are allowing 31.7 PPG (96th) on a whopping 480.3 YPG (125th!).

The Bearcats also rely on a strong ground game behind junior Michael Warren, who has back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons with 33 TDs on the ground in that span. He's run for 1,160 yards (4.8 YPA / 14 TDs) this season, while fellow RB Doaks has also compiled 499 rushing yards (5.3 YPA). QB Desmond Ridder returned from a shoulder injury for the AAC title contest but completed just 16-of-36 passes. However, he ran for 113 yards and a TD in the loss, giving him 545 rushing yards on the season. Cincy is averaging 197.6 YPG on the ground (33rd). Ridder has thrown for 2,069 yards (17 TDs / 9 INTs) but like with BC, Cincy's leading receiver has only 36 catches. The Cincy D checks in allowing 21.7 PPG, good enough to rank 30th.

Taking a closer look and the 2019 season, BC opened and closed the season with upset wins over bowl teams Virginia Tech and Pitt, but didn’t beat another bowl invitee in the remaining 10 games. Meanwhile, nationally-ranked Cincy, which had a shot at a New Year’s Six bowl had it defeated Memphis in the AAC title game, only lost two games prior to that, at Ohio State and at Memphis, when QB Desmond Ridder was sidelined with a shoulder injury. Ridder returned for the AAC title game and the Bearcats led that one until Memphis scored the game-winner with 1:14 remaining. The Cincy defense comes in allowing 21.7 PPG but a closer look reveals that it allowed 35.0 PPG in its three losses (Ohio St and Memphis, twice), while in the team's 10 wins, allowed only 17.7 PPG. I see no reason for why the Cincy D won't contain a BC offense playing without its marquee player (Dillon) and with a QB completing less than 50 percent of his passes. Blowout alert!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rose Bowl play is on Oregon at 5:00 ET.

Oregon (preseason No. 11) opened its season on Aug 31 with a game at "Jerry's House" against Auburn (preseason No. 16). The Ducks dominated play in to the late third quarter (led 21-6) but the Tigers would hold Oregon scoreless over the game's final minutes, while scoring the game's final THREE touchdowns (game-winner came with NINE seconds remaining). Oregon would fight its way back near the top of the rankings by winning its next NINE games (37.9-to-13.4 PPG) and was No. 2 when it lost 31-28 at Arizona St on Nov 23. That ended the Ducks' CFP hopes but a dominating 37-15 win over Utah in the Pac-12 championship game earned Oregon a trip to the Rose Bowl.

Wisconsin  opened the season ranked 19th in the AP's preseason poll and started the season 6-0, while 'pitching FOUR shutouts!' The Badgers were ranked 6th in the AP poll (defense was allowing 4.8 PPG!) when they lost 24-23 at Illinois on Oct 19, as four TD favorites. Wisconsin lost 38-7 at then-No. 3 Ohio St the following Saturday, ending any hopes the Badgers had of a CFP berth. The Badgers did fight back to take the Big Ten West but in a rematch with the Buckeyes on Dec 7, Wisconsin fell 34-21, getting outscored 27-0 in the second half. The 'consolation prize' is this trip to Pasadena.

Wisconsin is ranked 8th as it meets 6th-ranked Oregon and is in search of a SIXTH straight bowl victory, which has followed a four-game postseason skid.Leading the way for the Badgers is junior RB Jonathan Taylor, who has 1,909 rushing yards (6.4 PPA and 21 TDs). He's just 91 yards away from joining Troy Davis (Iowa St) as the only players in FBS history to run for 2,000 yards in consecutive seasons. He enters with 6,080 career rushing yards and could be playing his final college game, as he wrestles with the decision to turn pro.Oklahoma St's Chuba Hubbard an for 158 yards in his bowl game, giving him 2,094 on the season. Doing the math, Taylor needs 186 yards to become the first player since Texas' Ricky Williams to lead the nation in rushing in back-to-back years. QB Jack Coan has thrown for a modest 2,541 yards but has made mistakes (just four INTs, while throwing 17 TDs) but his only receiver with more than 30 catches is Quentez Cephus (52 / 16.2 YPC / 6 TDs).

Oregon has a very good running game (185.8 YPG ranks 42nd) led by Verdell, who has 1,171 yards on 6.5 YPA and eight TDs. Fellow RB Habibi-Likio may have just 337 yards but he's scored 10 TDs. However, the key to Oregon's offense (35.9 PPG ranks 15th) is QB Justin Herbert, who has thrown for 3,333 yards with 32 TDs and only five INTs. He turned down a chance to be a high first-round pick in the NFL Draft last winter and he enters the final game of his college career as the nation's active leader with 95 career TD passes. WRs Johnson (55) and Redd (50) each have seven TD catches. As for the Oregon D, it is actually allowing less points than Wisconsin's D on the season, checking in at 15.9 PPG to Wisconsin's 16.1.

Speaking of that Wisconsin D, it's become quite ordinary since yielding only 4.8 PPG on a paltry 174 YPG in its 6-0 start. Wisconsin has allowed an average of 25.7 PPG over its last seven games, including a combined 72 points in two losses to Ohio State, as well as allowing a season-high 493 yards of total offense at Nebraska on Nov 16.Bottom line is that the Oregon defense is every bit as good as Wisconsin's (maybe better?) and has 19 INTs (2nd-most in the nation entering the bowl season), which boosted Oregon to 8th in the country in turnover margin. After Utah got embarrassed last night by Texas (Longhorns won 38-10, as seven-point underdogs), Oregon should be motivated to restore some Pac-12 pride. Herbert goes out a winner, making his return for his senior season worth it.'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on Va Tech at 12::00 ET.

7-5 Kentucky and 8-4 Virginia Tech meet Dec 31 in the Belk Bowl at Charlotte, N.C. The Wildcats were just 4-5 after a 17-13 home loss to Tennessee back on Nov 9 but ripped off THREE straight wins to earn a bowl bid for the FOURTH straight season under head coach Mark Stoops. Lynn Bowden, Jr., a WR turned QB, took over under center for Kentucky at 2-3 and finished 5-2. The Hokies have a similar story, as Herndon Hooker was inserted at QB with the Hokies at 2-2 and the sophomore led the team to SIX wins in its next seven games. Va Tech met Virginia on Nov 29 and a win would have earned them the ACC Coastal Division title but the Cavs beat the Hokies 39-30, ending a 15-game losing streak in the series. No doubt the Hokies were disappointed by that loss but Va Tech is making its 27th straight bowl appearance, the longest active streak in the nation

Bowden, an AP All-American who won the Paul Hornung Award as the nation's most versatile player, is the ONLY player in the country to lead his team in rushing and receiving, and averages 8.2 YPA, while producing five straight 100-yard ground games to end the season, capped by a career-high 284 yards and four TDs against Louisville. He finished the season with 1,235 rushing yards, 1,136 of which he gained in the final seven games, and 11 rushing TDs. Kentucky also has a trio of RBs who have between 515 and 757 yards rushing, giving the Wildcats the 4th-best ground game in the nation at 274.8 YPG (6.4 YPA). Don't expect much out of Kentucky's passing game though, as Bowden has completed just 46.8 percent of his passes for 330 yards (two TDs and two INTs). Stoops is a defensive guy and Kentucky is allowing only 18.4 PPG (12th).

Va Tech has no stars but a decent running game that's averaged 172.9 YPG (53rd). Hooker is nothing like Bowden but he did rush for 306 yards and five TDs. He's passed for 1,445 yards with 11 TDs and just two INTs. He likes to spread the ball around, with Tre Turner, Damon Hazelton and Tayvion Robinson accounting for 92 receptions for 1,434 yards and 12 TDs (no receiver has more than 33 catches). Defense has always been a Va Tech trademark and this game marks the final one for DC Bud Foster. He followed head coach Frank Beamer from Murray State before the 1987 season and has been in Blacksburg ever since. That includes the last 24 years running the defense under Beamer and Justin Fuente, who replaced Beamer after the 2015 season. After a rough start, Foster's unit peaked in November, allowing 9.3 PPG and pitching two shutouts, before giving up 39 points to Virginia. Va Tech's only other loss in its 6-2 closing run was 21-20 to Notre Dame.

Color me sentimental but Foster has a had a month to prepare for Kentucky's one-dimensional offense. Foster's defenses have posted 36 shutouts and have collected the most sacks (893) and second-most interceptions (393) in the FBS since 1996. I say Va Tech "wins one for the Gipper!" You get my drift, right?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* play is on Western Kentucky at 12:30 ET.

Western Kentucky was coming off a 3-9 season in 2018 and had a first-time head coach (Tyson Helton) to open 2019. Things couldn't have looked worse when the Hilltoppers opened the season with with a 35-28 home loss to FCS Central Arkansas (as a 10 1/2-point favorite) but by the end of November, the team had made a major turnaround. WKU went 8-4 and is now in its SIXTH bowl in eight seasons. Waiting in Dallas for the Hilltoppers for the First Responders Bowl is 7-5 Western Michigan, which is appearing in its fifth bowl game in the last six years and second straight under third-year head coach Tim Lester.

The Broncos' are averaging 34.2 PPG (25th) behind QB Jon Wassink (2,904 yards / 19-7 TD-to-INT ratio) and RB LeVante Bellamy, who leads the nation in rsuhing TDs (23), while gaining 1,412 rushing yards (9th) on 5.7 YPA. WRs Mixon and Moore have combined for 95 catches but just five TDs. TE Ricci has 47 catches and a team-high eight TDs. The defense is allowing 26.2 PPG (57th) on 414.6 YPG (82nd).

Starting QB Steven Duncan went down with a foot injury early on for WKU and graduate-transfer QB Ty Storey started the last nine games, throwing for 2,209 yards and 12 TDs and just five INTs. It helps that Storey was throwing to a pair of receivers that each earned all-conference honors in Lucky Jackson (77) and Jahcour Pearson (71), one of just four duos in the country to have at least 70 catches each. RB Gaej Walker was second in C-USA with 1,115 rushing yards (4.9 YPA / 8 TDS), reaching the 100-yard plateau seven times. The offense is averaging a modest 25.6 PPG (90th) on 380.0 YPG (87th) but the defense is top-notch, allowing 20.1 PPG (21st) on 337.8 YPG (29th).

Yes, WKU lost its opener against a FCS school but then defeated four C-USA bowl teams plus power-five opponent in Arkansas. Ty Helton was named the C-USA Coach of the Year, an award his father, Kim, won as head coach of Houston in 1996, the first father-son duo to win the award in the conference’s history. Western Kentucky comes in having won its last three games, including a 45-19 victory over Arkansas. WKU was 7-2 SU and ATS with Storey as its starter and I think that the Hilltoppers are undervalued in this matchup. Western Michigan hasn't played since it frittered away a chance to play for the MAC title (Nov 26) when it lost 17-14 at Northern Illinois as a 10-point favorite. Frankly, Western Michigan failed to impress in a softer MAC West and enters this contest with a putrid 1-8 bowl record that includes last year's 49-18 thumping at the hands of BYU in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. WMU falls to 1-9 all-time in bowls, as WKU wins handily.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Game of the Year is on Ohio St at 8:00 ET.

What a difference the No. 1 vs No. 2 spot in the final CFP rankings meant. LSU was able to leap-frog Ohio St after the Tigers dominated the Bulldogs, while the Buckeyes fell behind Wisconsin 21-7 at the half in the Big Ten championship game, before dominating the second half to win, 34-21. No. 1 LSU drew Oklahoma in the semifinals, where the Tigers are just about a two-TD favorite, while No. 2 Ohio St gets Clemson. The defending champs will take the the field in this year's Fiesta Bowl on a 28-game winning streak. Like LSU, Ohio St would have been a double-digit favorite against the Sooners, but instead the Buckeyes will take the field Saturday night  against Clemson as small underdog. It’s the second time in four years that Clemson and Ohio State have squared off in a semifinal matchup in the Fiesta Bowl, with the Tigers routing the Buckeyes 31-0 in 2016.

Clemson is trying to become the first repeat national champion since Alabama rolled to back-to-back titles in 2011 and 2012. The knock on the Tigers is their relatively weak schedule and that 21-20 'squeaker' at North Carolina back on Sep 28 (the Tigers 'escaped' when the Tar Heels failed to convert on a two-point conversion try with just 1:17 remaining in the game). However, the Tigers have surged ever since that 'scare,' rolling to eight wins, while outscoring their opponents 51.9-to-9.8 PPG (no wonder Clemson was 7-1 ATS in that stretch). QB Lawrence did not play well early, throwing five TDs and five INTs in his first three games. However, he finished the season with 34 TDs against just eight INTs, throwing 20 TDs and not a single INT in his last six games (147 attempts). RB Etienne (1,500 yards / 8.2 YPA / 17 TDs) leads a running game that perfectly balances Lawrence's passing game. Clemson averages 294.8 YPG passing and 252.9 YPG rushing, while scoring 46.5 PPG (4th). The Clemson D ranks first in the nation in allowing 10.6 PPG on 244.7 YPG (also No. 1).

Anything you can do, I can do better," is what Ohio St responds with. QB Fields has thrown for 40 TDs and just one INT on the season (308 attempts), while RB Dobbins has rushed for 1,829 yards (6.5 YPA) and 20 TDs. Ohio St's pass/rush balance is VERY similar to Clemson's and the Buckeyes are scoring 48.7 PPG, tops in the nation. Ohio St can't quite match Clemson's defensive numbers but the Buckeyes come awfully close. Ohio St is allowing 12.5 PPG (3rd), on 247.9 YPG 95th).

The superlatives for both teams are endless but for me, it comes down to this. Clemson's dominating season saw them play just ONE team which ended the season in the final CFP rankings, and that was Virginia, at No. 24. Seriously, does ANYONE think that Virginia, which lost 35-20 to Notre Dame and 62-17 to Clemson, while also losing 17-9 to a 6-6 Miami team and 28-21 to a 7-5 Louisville team, is a 'top-notch" football team? Ohio St basically mirrored Clemson's numbers, while beating Wisconsin twice (current No. 8), Penn St (current No. 10) and Michigan (current No. 14), not to mention a 10-3 Cincinnati team (current No. 21), 42-0! Ohio St has been an underdog just SEVEN times since 2012 and is 7-0 SU. Make that "crazy eights!"

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener (Camping World) is on Iowa St at 12:00 ET.

Notre Dame (10-2 / No. 15 in the CFP rankings) meets 7-5 Iowa State Dec 28 in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando, Fl at 12 noon ET. Both football programs have been around for more than a century (fair to say that Notre Dame has a more storied history) but will meet for the first time. The Fighting Irish are making their NINTH bowl appearance in 10 seasons but a hard-fought 23-17 loss at Georgia back on Sep 21 and then 45-14 blowout loss at Michigan on Oct 26, ended any "Final Four" talk for Notre Dame before the season moved to November. However, the Irish closed with FIVE straight wins, averaging 43.8 PPG in going 4-1 ATS. Iowa State owns wins over Texas and TCU plus its five losses came by a total of 21 points, including one-point losses to ranked opponents Iowa and Oklahoma (were two-TD underdogs against the Sooners), as well as a two-point loss to Baylor. Notre Dame enters the contest with an 18-19 record in bowl games, while Iowa State is 4-10 in bowl appearances.

QB Brock Purdy took over at mid-season in 2018 as freshman, after an injury first to starter Kyle Kempt and then the abrupt departure of backup Zeb Noland. Purdy completed 66.4% of his passes for 2,250 yards with 16 TDs and seven INTs while playing in 10 games. The sophomore was the starter this season from Week 1 and enters this contest completing 66.3% with 3,760 yards with 27 TDs and nine INTs (he also has eight rushing TDs). Jones leads the team with 72 catches (only two TDs, though) but TE Kolar has seven TDs among his 48 catches and WR Pettway six TDs among his 51 catches. RB David Montgomery (1,216 yards and 13 TDs) is now playing for the Bears and this year's running game is not as good. Hall leads the team with 842 yards on 5.0 YPA with nine TDs. The offense is averaging 34.1 PPG (26th) but ISU's defense is allowing 25.3 PPG (52nd) on 362.2 YPG (44th). That's a slight drop-off from 2018, when it allowed 22.9 PPG on 349.0 YPG.

Notre Dame features senior QB Ian Book, who could elect to come back for a fifth season in 2020. Book struggled at times early on but threw for 12 TDs without an interception in the last three games to finish with 2,787 yards with 33 TDs and just six INTs. Book added 516 rushing yards (4.9 YPA) and four TDs. He's become the first Irish QB to throw for 2,500 yards, rush for 500 and pass for at least 30 TDs in a single season. RB Jones (722 yards on 5.4 YPA and 5 TDs) helps ND's running game average 178.3 YPG (46th). WR Claypool is the team's best pass-catcher, with 59 (15.1 YPC) and 12 TDs. The Irish average 37.1 PPG (13th), while their defense allows just 18.7 PPG (13th) on 325.6 YPG (21st).

On paper, one could argue the Notre Dame side fairly easily, but not I. Brian Kelly’s Notre Dame team played in the CFP semifinals last season (lost 30-3 in the Cotton Bowl to Clemson) plus was in Fiesta and Citrus Jan 1 bowls in two of the previous three seasons, facing CFB 'blue-bloods' LSU and Ohio State in those games. My guess (bet) is that this Dec 28th game holds little allure for Notre Dame and I have NO intention of overlooking the fact that Brian Kelly comes into this game having covered just TWICE in 11 career bowl games.

Meanwhile, Mike Campbell came from Toledo to take the Iowa St job back in 2016. He was just 3-9 that first season but this marks a THIRD straight bowl appearance for the Cyclones for the first time since 2000-02. What's more, Iowa St was 5-2 ATS as an underdog in 2018 and has gone 2-0 ATS as an underdog in 2019. I'm taking any points available but expect an outright win by the Cyclones.

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Holiday Bowl Blowout is on Iowa at 8:00 ET.

I'm calling this year's Holiday Bowl, "Rose Bowl Light," with the Pac 12's USC Trojans (8-4) taking on the Big Ten's Iowa Hawkeyes (9-3). The Holiday Bowl sure has a Rose Bowl 'feel' but it also serves up a 'battle' between USC's "Air Raid Offense" against Iowa's defensive prowess. USC ranks 5th in the nation averaging 335.9 YPG passing, leading to 33.2 PPG (36th) Iowa counters with a defense which ranks FIFTH in allowing just 13.2 PPG on 304.6 YPG (12th). Looking closer, Iowa is allowing only 184.2 passing YPG, which ranks 11th. The Holiday Bowl venue seems perfectly suited to USC, with its large alumni base in Southern California and San Diego just a short drive away. However, Iowa supporters are well-known for traveling to bowl games and who wouldn't want to escape the snow and cold temperatures of the upper mid-west for a few days of sun and fun?

After losing 30-27 to Notre Dame for the 3rd straight year back on Oct 12, things didn't look good for USC or its head coach, Clay Helton. However, USC survived a season-ending injury to starting QB J.T. Daniels and a concussion to backup Kedon Slovis, among a laundry list of other injuries,ton win FIVE of its last six and finish 8-4 (22nd in both the AP and CFP rankings). Slovis has completed 71.8 percent for 3,242 yards with 28 TDs and nine INTs. He's blessed with three WRs who all have at least 68 catches. Pittman leads the way (95, 1,222 yards, 11 TDs) with both Brown and Vaughns each catching 68 balls with six TDs. Remember when USC was nicknamed "Running back U?' No longer, as the Trojans are averaging only 126.3 YPG on the ground (113th) and their leading rusher has just 466 yards! The defense has plenty of question marks, allowing 27.8 PPG (66th) on 415.3 YPG (83rd)

NO ONE questions Iowa's defensive numbers (see above) but the Hawkeyes are averaging a modest 23.9 PPG (99th) on YPG (98th). QB Nate Stanley entered this season with a 52-16 TD-to-INT ratio in his previous two but threw for only 2,738 yards with 14 TDs and seven INTs (truly underwhelming). Three RBs have rushed for between 414 and 590 (on 5.0 YPA) but still, Iowa is averaging a modest 139.5 YPG on the season (9th). That said, Stanley's a senior leader and fully capable of "coming up big'" against a mediocre USC defense. The Hawkeyes have ridden their physical style to the cusp of 10 wins for what would be the sixth time in coach Kirk Ferentz's 21 seasons at the helm.

USC's four loses have come by 10.5 PPG, while Iowa three losses have come by a margin of just 4.7 PPG.  More notably, those loses have come 10-3 at Michigan (current CFP No. 14), 17-12 at home to Penn St (current No. 10) and 24-22 at Wisconsin (current No. 8). I believe DEFENSE wins over offense and I'll take Ferentz over Helton any day of the week. Don't be surprised by a 10-15 point Iowa win!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Bowl Eye-Opener is on North Carolina at 12:00 ET.

Mack Brown had a great six-year run at North Carolina from 1992-1997. He led the Tar Heels to six straight bowls and had three, 10-win seasons. That was a springboard to take the job at Texas. He won nine games in each of his first three years but then won double digits in NINE consecutive season (2001-09). His 2004 team won the BCS national championship by ending USC's 34-game winning streak, 41-38. The 2009 team lost the BCS national championship game 37-21 to Alabama. Brown would coach the Longhorns for four more seasons but the 'Horns went just 30-21 and Brown resigned after the 2013 season. Brown was named head coach at North Carolina in November of 2018 after a five-year absence from coaching and 21 years after he left UNC for Texas. North Carolina won its final two games to earn bowl eligibility at 6-6 and  returns to a bowl game for the first time since 2016, looking for its first bowl win since 2013.

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances (going 2-2) but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and then Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as that school's head coach and he leads the Owls into their FIFTH straight bowl, off an 8-4 season. The highlight of Temple's season was its 30-28 home win over Memphis, the Tigers' only loss of the season, who at 13-1 will play Penn St in the Cotton Bowl (New Year's Six game).

North Carolina relies heavily on freshman QB Sam Howell, who set several single-season school records on his way to being named Rookie of the Year in the Atlantic Coast Conference. He threw for 35 touchdowns with seven interceptions to go with an ACC-leading 3,347 passing yards. He's got some quality WRs in Brown, who caught  a modest 46 passes but averaged 20.6 YPC and had 11 TDs, as well as Newman (64 catches & 8 TDs) and Corrales (36 catches but 6 TDs). A pair of RBs, Carter (919 yards / 5.8 YPA) and Hill (848 yards / 5.6 YPA) , lead a rushing attack that averages 184.0 YPG. Along with Howell's passing, North Carolina has averaged 469.0 YPG (14th), although the Tar Heels are averaging 31.3 PPG 49th), which is less than one would expect with the yardage they've gained.

Temple averages 27.4 PPG (77th), behind QB Russo (just 58.6% completions with 21 TDs and 11 INTs) and a two-headed running attack featuring Davis (900 yards / 5.1 YPA) and Gardner (585 yards / 4.1 YPA). Russo has a quality trio of WRs, in Blue (87 catches but just four TDs), Mack (56 catches / 15.8 YPC / 7 TDs) and Wright (47 catches / 5 TDs). Temple's D allowed 23.5 PPG (43rd) on 365.0 YPG (46th) but most impressively ended the regular season ranked third nationally in red-zone stinginess.

Temple's senior class is the third-winningest group in program history with 33 victories. "I've really enjoyed my first season here at Temple and only wish that I can spend more time with this outstanding senior class," Owls head coach Rod Carey said.However, here's the rub. As noted above, Carey led the Northern Illinois to five bowls in six years and let me add that he also coached the Huskies in the Orange Bowl (2012 season), after Dave Doeren left to take the NC State job. What do all those bowl games have in common? The Huskies lost EVERY one! Should his 'luck' change here in 2019? I don't see it. Other than Memphis, who did Temple beat. Here's a list of the other seven. Bucknell (FCS), Maryland (3-9), ECU (4-8), USF (4-68), UConn (2-10), Tulane (6-6) and Ga Tech (3-9).

“Our No. 1 goal when we returned last year was to send the seniors out the right way,” Mack Brown said. “Everything we did, from spring practice to summer workouts to fall camp, was with an eye on winning enough games to get these seniors to a bowl game. Now, when this group looks back on their careers, they'll be able to say they helped get the program on the right track and finished with a bowl game. I'm just so happy for everyone involved in our program, but especially, that group of young men.” so far, North Carolina's "highlight of the year" was a 21-20 loss to Clemson (you know, the winners of 28 in a row), when the Tar Heels failed on a two-point conversion with 1:17 remaining in the contest. A win here will replace that game at "the No. 1 spot" and would be the 'cherry on top' of Mack Brown's "Carolina return." That's my bet!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* signature 36-Club Play is on La Tech at 4:00 ET.

Mark Richt led Miami to a 9-4 record in his first season (2016), which included a 31-14 bowl win over West Va. Much was expected of the 2017 team and Miami opened 9-0, including wins over then-No. 13 Va Tech (28-10) and then-No. 3 Notre Dame (41-8), to open November. Miami reached 10-0 with a win over UVa the following week and played its final regular season game at Pittsburgh, ranked No. 2 in the nation. The 'Canes lost 24-14 (as a 12-point favorite) and then got crushed 38-3 by Clemson in the ACC championship game. That Notre Dame win was supposed to be a watershed event but it instead became the apex of the Richt era. The 'Canes lost their final three games of the 2017 season (after that 10-0 start) and then went 7-6 in 2018, going 5-12 ATS over Richt's final 17 games as Miami's head coach. Richt abruptly resigned after Miami's 35-3 Pinstripe Bowl loss to Wisconsin. Richt's DC Manny Diaz had already moved to Temple as the new Owls' head coach but he returned to Miami. Pretty convoluted, right? Is it really a surprise Miami had such a disappointing season (more in a bit).

The 6-6 'Canes meet the 9-3 La Tech Bulldogs in the Independence Bowl on Dec 26 in Shreveport, La. The Bulldogs play in C-USA and were 6-2 in the West Division, but lost a tie-breaker to UAB, which went on to lose the C-USA title game 49-6 playing FAU in its home stadium. However, unlike Miami, La Tech has had stability on the coaching sidelines, as Skip Holtz is finishing up his seventh season at La Tech. He went just 4-8 in his first season but 2019 marks the SIXTH consecutive season in which he's led the Bulldogs to a bowl game.What's more, his Bulldogs have won EACH of the last five! Should I stop right here? C'mon, you know me better than that.

The Hurricanes' roller-coaster season mirrors the up-and-down play of QBs Jarren Williams and N'Kosi Perry, both of whom have had their chances but struggled with inconsistency and ineffectiveness. Diaz declared the battle open for the starting job in the Independence Bowl when Williams faltered in the final two games after seemingly turning the corner during a three-game winning streak in late October and early November. A weak offensive line didn't much help Miami's QBs, nor Miami's sad-sack running game that ranked dead last in the ACC (116.5 YPG). Adding insult to injury, leading rusher DeeJay Dallas (693 yards) will not play in this contest. Defense has long been a cornerstone for the Hurricanes but, despite ranking 13th in the country (307.6 YPG), the unit too often failed to get critical stops late in games. Miami's D allowed  57 points in its final two games, with consecutive 'ugly' defeats at local rival and non-power 5 school Florida International (30-24) and ACC foe Duke (27-17), which had come into the game with just two conference victories.

Louisiana Tech struggled down the stretch with back-to-back losses to Marshall (31-10) and UAB (20-14), before coming back to defeat Texas-San Antonio 41-27 in the regular-season finale. Senior QB J'Mar Smith missed the losses to Marshall and UAB, as he was suspended for violating athletic department policy. However, Smith returned for the finale and tossed three TD passes against UTSA. Despite sitting out two games, Smith enjoyed a career year while throwing for 2,814 yards and 17 TDs with just four INTs, earning the C-USA Offensive Player of the Year award. La Tech averages 34.0 PPG (29th) and after an opening 42-14 loss at Texas, the defense only allowed more than 30 points just twice

Breaking it down, both Miami's offense and defense has been erratic all season, so why should we expect them to turn things around here? Miami's offense should have problems vs a La Tech D that ranked THIRD in the nation in stopping opponents inside the red zone, giving up scores just 64.7 percent of the time. As for La Tech and its offense, the Bulldogs have won the last NINE game started by QB Smith. The Hurricanes have played in just one marquee bowl game since a 2005 , losing that Peach Bowl appearance 40-3 to LSU. That loss began a stretch that's seen Miami win just TWO of its last 11 bowl appearances and as noted above, Holtz has led La Tech to FIVE straight bowl wins the last five seasons! Dig deeper and we find that La Tech is 18-8-1 as a dog since 2014 and that the underdog has gone 9-3 ATS in Miami's 12 games this season. Ruston is just under 70 miles from Shreveport, so the Bulldogs should have great support, while is there any reason to expect Miami to be interested? Surely, the school's recent bowl efforts provide none

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Bowl Game of the Week is on Arkansas St at 5:30 ET.

The Camellia Bowl on Dec 21 in Birmingham, Al features 6-6  Florida International and 7-5 Arkansas State. FIU is 'bowling' for the THIRD straight season, all under current head coach Butch Davis (1-1 SU & ATS), despite going 3-5 in C-USA (tied for the third-worst record in the 14-team league). Meanwhile, Arkansas St is headed to a bowl game for NINTH straight year, including SIX in a row under head coach Blake Anderson, although he's only 1-4 SU & ATS in the postseason,.

FIU became bowl-eligible on Nov 23, when the Panthers earned the program's most significant victory, a 30-24 home win over Miami (Panthers were a three-TD underdog). Senior QB James Morgan has thrown for a modest 2,248 yards with just 13 TDs but he has not made many mistakes (three INTs in 319 attempts). FIU has a two solid but unspectacular RBs in Jones (802 yards / 4.8 YPA / 9 TDs) and Maxwell (609 yards / 5.3 YPA and 8 TDs). The receiving corps is led by Shemar Thornton and Tony Gaiter IV, who combined  to make 97 catches for 1,189 yards and nine TDs. The FIU defense allows 26.7 PPG (61st), doing much better against the pass (178.5 YPG ranks 6th), than the run (205.1 YPG ranks 111th)..

Arkansas State has battled adversity on and off the field this season, as head coach Blake Anderson's wife died from breast cancer Aug 19. On the field, junior QB Logan Bonner sustained a season-ending injury to his throwing hand in Week 4, after passing for 1,052 yards with 10 TDs and just one INT. However, redshirt freshman QB Layne Hatcher went 5-3 after taking over for Bonner, throwing for 2,553 yards with 23 TDs and nine INTs (his pass efficiency rate of 173.5 ranked first in the SBC). Hatcher was named the SBC's  Freshman of the Year. He's blessed with an outstanding trio of WRs, starting with Sun Belt Conference Player of the Year (senior WR Omar Bayless). Bayless has 84 catches for 1,473 yards with 16 TDs (his yards and TD totals rank second to only LSU's Ja'Marr Chase). Kirk Merritt had 64 catches for 763 yards and 11 TDs, despite playing in Bayless' shadow, while Jonathan Adams Jr. (58 receptions, four scores) provides Hatcher a solid third option. The Red Wolves' D is a liability, allowing 34.8 PPG (117th) on 481.9 YPG (127th).

Basically, the Red Wolves need to outscore their opponents to win. I expect them to do just that, here. FIU was blessed with SEVEN home games this season (went 6-1) but went 0-5 on the road, while allowing 40.4 PPG. This is NOT a road game but it's NOT a home game, either. Arkansas St entered its final game of the regular season on a four-game winning streak (averaging 38.0 PPG) but then 'got caught napping' in a 34-30 loss to South Alabama, which ended a nine-game losing streak. I respect Butch Davis but I do not believe FIU can match Arkansas St score for score and this program gets some extra kudos for appearing in its NINTH straight bowl game. As noted above, the Red Wolves are just 1-4 SU & ATS under Anderson in bowl games but it would be a nice story for Anderson to cap the season with a bowl win, after losing his wife Wendy, just before the the season opened. Christmas comes a few days early for Anderson and his team.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* SEC Championship Game Showdown is on Georgia at 4:00 ET.

The SEC has been the dominant conference for quite some time now and the question after the winner of this year's title game is crowned will be, "Will there be ONE or TWO schools from the SEC in CFP 2019's 'Final 4?' Georgia lost just one game in 2019 (a 20-19 two-OT shocker at home to South Carolina) but its resume also includes wins over three teams in the top-12 at the time of those games. The 4th-ranked 11-1 Bulldogs bring a defense to Atlanta allowing just 10.4 PPG (2nd) on 247.0 YPG (4th) to face a 12-0 LSU team (No. 1 in the AP and No. 2 in the CFP rankings) , which owns wins over then-No. 9 Texas, then-No. 7 Florida, then No. 9 Auburn and then-No. 3 Alabama on its list of 'victims.' The LSU offense ranks both second in scoring (48.7 PPG) and in total yards (560.4 YPG). This is LSU's first appearance in the SEC title game since 2011, while Georgia is in it for the third consecutive season.

The Georgia offense is hardly pedestrian, as it averages 32.9 PPG on 420.6 YPG. QB Jake Fromm is a three-year starter who owns a 21-3 TD-to-INT ratio in 2019 and a 75-16 ratio in his career (he's 34-6 as a starter). However, WR Lawrence Cager (ankle surgery) is out plus freshman WR George Pickens is suspended for the first half Saturday (both Cager and Pickens have 33 catches, tied for a team-best). Junior RB D’Andre Swift ranks fourth in the SEC in rushing yards (1,203 yards on 6.2 YPA with 7 TDs), leads a rushing attack averaging 200.0 YPG on 5.7 YPA. He left last week’s 52-7 rout of Georgia Tech with a left shoulder injury but he's listed as probable against LSU.

LSU's Joe Burrow is the first player in SEC history to pass for 4,000 yards (setting a conference record with 4,366 yards) and at least 40 TDs (44), Burrow passed for 352 yards and three TDs in last week’s 50-7 rout of Texas A&M and is currently the overwhelming favorite to win the Heisman. and he ranks second nationally in passing yards, touchdowns, passing yards per game (363.8) and passing efficiency (203). WR Ja’Marr Chase has 70 catches and leads the country with 17 TD receptions, while ranking second with 1,457 yards (20.8 YPC) Junior WR Justin Jefferson  has 81 catches and has hauled in 13 TDs. RB Edwards-Helaire has run for 1,233 yards (6.8 YPA and 16 TDs),  to lead a running game which averages 170.4 YPG on 5.0 YPA. The defense is allowing 22.1 PPG (not bad) but has looked a little shaky at times late in the season.

Maybe I'm 'nuts' going against LSU's Burrow but this Georgia D will be the best unit LSU has faced all season. Talking about the LSU defense, it has allowed 38 points to both Vanderbilt and Texas, 28 to Florida, 41 to Alabama and 37 to Mississippi. Georgia KNOWS it has to win here or it will miss the 'Final 4.' I WANT the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* Championship Saturday Game of the Month is on FAU at 1:30 ET.

Oakland Raiders' owner Al Davis hired Lane Kiffin back on January 23, 2007, making him the youngest head coach in the NFL's "modern era" (since 1946) at 31. However, he was gone before the end of his second season, after posting a 5-15 record. Trouble and controversy have followed Kiffin ever since. He had a one-year stay as Tennessee's head coach and spent three-plus seasons at USC, before landing a job as Nick Saban's OC from 2014-16. That ended badly as well and Kiffin landed at FAU and in his first season (2017) went 11-3 with a bowl win (Owls had come off three straight 3-9 seasons). However, FAU was just 5-7 last season and opened 2019 with a 45-21 loss at Ohio St and a 48-14 home loss to UCF. Kiffin turned things around quickly though, winning NINE of 10 to capture the C-USA East at 7-1 (9-3, overall).

Bill Clark was UAB's head coach in 2014 (6-6) but the school shut down the football program in 2015 and 2016. Clark remained as head coach when the school resumed play in 2017, going 8-5 after a 41-6  Bahamas Bowl loss to Ohio. However, UAB won the C-USA West title last year (7-1) and then beat Middle Tenn St in the title game, 27-25. That led to a 37-13 win over Northern Illinois  in the Boca Raton Bowl to finish 11-3. The Blazers are back in the C-USA championship game again, after going 9-3 (6-2 in league play), advancing over La Tech (also 6-2) due to a 20-14 home win over the Bulldogs on Nov 23.

Things did not look good for UAB when it opened November with a 30-7 loss at Tennessee and followed with an 'ugly' 37-2 loss at Southern Miss. However, the Blazers finished with THREE straight wins. Two were over 1-11 UTEP and 4-8 North Texas but that Nov 23rd home win over La Tech, turned out to be the tie-breaker. Starting QB Tyler Johnston went down with a knee injury in early November (he did make a brief return in last Saturday’s West-clinching win at North Texas) and freshman backup Dylan Hopkins has barely been serviceable in relief. In his four starts, he's completed 37 of 68 (54.4%) for 483 yards with two TDs and three INTs. That's NOT good enough when one's team is averaging a modest 161.2 YPG rushing, with the team's leading rusher (Brown), accounting for only 462 yards on 3.9 YPA.  UAB's defense will have to "win it," as the Blazers are allowing just 18.5 PPG (15th) on 271. YPG (5th).

Keeping FAU's offense in check will be a tough job, as during the Owls' 9-1 run (7-3 ATS) run their last 10 games, they've averaged 37.4 PPG. QB Chris Robison has emerged as an effective game-manager for Kiffin, passing for 3,125 yards with 22 TDPs and just five INTs. FAU's running game is no better than UAB's (it averages 155.1 YPG) but as already alluded to, FAU has regularly put points on the board in its closing run (held under 30 points just ONCE in its last 10 games).

UAB was able to win 27-25 at Middle Tenn St in last year's title game, after losing 27-3 to the same Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro only the week before. There’s no similar quick-rematch angle in 2019 and while QB Johnston has not yet officially been ruled out for UAB, I don't think UAB can "keep up" with FAU here at home, where the Owls have averaged 37.2 PPG under Kiffin. Lay it!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* November Game of the Month is on SMU at 4:00 ET.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! Tulane opened the 2019 season 5-1 start and a SECOND straight winning season seemed like a "sure thing." However, Tulane has lost FOUR of its last five (only win coming against 3-8 Tulsa) and now must win at SMU to avoid falling to 6-6 (after that promising 5-1 start). Sonny Dykes has done in less than two seasons, what his SEVEN predecessors could not do at SMU, and that is to bring the program back to prominence. SMU got off to an 8-0 start, its best since Eric Dickerson and Craig James led that "Pony Express" team to a 10-0 start while playing in the SWC in 1982.The Mustangs opened 8-0, rising as high as No. 14 in the AP poll (15th in the CFP rankings) but SMU welcomes Tulane to Dallas having lost TWO of their last three. It's tough to be too hard on SMU though, as the losses have come by SIX points at 10-1 Memphis and by seven at 8-2 Navy.

Dual-threat QB McMillan has 1,987 yards passing with 14 TDs and 10 INTs, plus leads the team in rushing with 654 yards (4.8 YPA / 12 TDs). Depth is the key to Tulane's running game, as SIX more RBs chip in between 161 and 517 yards, as the Green Wave ranks 13th by averaging 252.3 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has been solid at home (has allowed 19.2 PPG but the "stop unit" is allowing 34.8 PPG on the road and is a big reason Tulane is 1-4 away from home.

9-2 SMU's chance at a spot in the American Athletic Conference championship game was lost in falling at Memphis and Navy but the team still has a shot at its first 10-win campaign since 1984. The Mustangs' offense (averaging 43.5 PPG, 7th-best among FBS teams) will try to hit double figures in the win column when they close the regular season by hosting Tulane on Saturday. The Mustangs' offense (averaging 43.5 PPG, 7th-best among FBS teams), could not overcome the team's D allowing 140 points (46.7 PPG) over its last three games (lone win came 59-51 over East Carolina).Then again, the Mustangs took a 21-10 lead into the half against Navy but were outscored 25-7 after the break and failed to put up points over the final 12 minutes. QB Shane Buechele (3,446 yards with 30 TDs and just eight INTs owns a big-time WR in Proche (95 catches with 13 TDs) plus WR Roberson an TE Granson have combine for 77 catches with 14 TDs. RB Jones has rushed for 1,124 yards on 5.3 YPA with 19 TDs (also two TD catches).

Kudos to Sonny Dykes and the job he has done at SMU and a 10-win season (how about an 11-win one with a victory here and in a bowl game) would be quite something for a program that was 1-11 and 2-10 in back-to-back seasons not too long ago (2014 & 2015). Tulane has not gotten the job done on the road (see above) and why should that change here, after its season has basically fallen apart? The Mustangs own a four-game winning streak in the series, winning with teams nowhere-near as good as this 2019 edition. SMU is 5-0 SU at home, averaging 48.6 PPG with an average margin of victory checking in at 18.0 PPG. Does laying 3-4 points seem like "too much" to you? It doesn't to me.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Wisconsin at 3:30 ET.

Wisconsin cruised past Purdue 45-24last Saturday  to set up this winner-take-all clash. QB Jack Coan completed 15-of-19 passes for 203 yards and two TDS to help the Badgers finish with 606 yards of offense, which is the most since amassing 627 against Nebraska in 2014. RB Jonathan Taylor racked up 222 yards on the ground to go along with a TD in the win over the Boilermakers to finish with 200 or more rushing yards for the 12th time in his career. Taylor is a superstar, rushing for 1,685 yards on 6.5 YPA with 18 TDs. Coan is not a star but he's completing 72.7% with 15 TDs and just four INTs in 249 attempts. The Wisconsin D allowed just 4.8 PPG through its first six games but in going 3-2 its last five, has allowed 25.8 PPG. The overall season stats look great (14.4 PPG ranks 8th and 270.3 YPG allowed ranks 7th) but Wisconsin knows its D needs a "big-time" effort in this one

Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan showed no ill effects from the concussion he suffered against Iowa, throwing for 211 yards and four TD passes in the win over Northwestern to give him 26 on the season. That breaks the program's single-season passing TD record previously held by Adam Weber (24). Morgan is completing 67.9% and has thrown just five INTs in 252 attempts. Tyler Johnson hauled in seven passes for 125 yards and a TD, while Rashod Bateman added seven catches for 78 yards and three TDs against the Wildcats to become the first WR duo in program history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in the same season with 1,025 and 1,023 respectively. Johnson has 61 catches and Bateman 51, with both hauling in 10 TDs. RB Rodney Smith is no Taylor (few, if any, are) but he's over 1,000 yards with 1,063 for 5.3 YPA and eight TDs. Minnesota 's defense can't match the numbers put up by Wisconsin's D (few, if any, can) but allowing 21.0 PPG (28th) on 300.1 YPG (10th) is pretty 'sweet.' 

So here we are. Minnesota/Wisconsin is the most-played rivalry in the FBS, with 128 meetings. The winner of the 129th game not only receives Paul Bunyan's Axe but also earns a spot in the Big Ten championship game Dec 7 against Ohio St. How great is it that the series is tied, 60-60-8 (you couldn't make that up!). Kudos to Fleck and this year's Minnesota team, which is vying to complete an undefeated season at home for the first time since 1954. Yes, this series is tied (see above) but when Gophers beat the Badgers 37-15 last season (in Madison as a 12-point underdog), it was Minnesota's first win against Wisconsin since 2003 (Badgers had won 14 in a row!). I had Minnesota in its home upset of nSt and won against them when the Gophers lost at Iowa. Wisconsin's season looked 'dead in the water' after its back-to-back losses in late October but a win here and it's off to Lucas Oil Stadium to face Ohio St next Saturday. That's the bet. 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Marshall at 12:00 ET.

FAU and Marshall entered the 2019 season as the two favorites to win C-USA's East. FAU has won FOUR in a row to take over first-place with a 6-1 record, while Marshall and Western Kentucky are one game back at 6-2. Marshall is coming off a 24-13 loss to Charlotte, a victory that allowed the 49ers to become bowl-eligible for the first time since joining the FBS is 2015. The good news for Marshall is, the Thundering Herd own wins over FAU and Western Ky, so if they can win here and the Owls lose at home to Southern Miss (FAU is a nine-point favorite), Marshall would represent the East in next Saturday's championship game. Marshall welcomes 6-5 FIU to Huntington, the week after that school's first-ever win over a Power-5 school. The Panthers upset Miami-Fla 30-24 last Saturday as a 21-point home dog.

FIU is scoring 26.5 PPG (83rd) and allowing 26.4 (58th). QB James Morgan tossed two TD passes and the Panthers earned the program's most significant victory against Miami. However, while Morgan has not made many mistakes (two INTs in 282 attempts), he's completing a modest 58.2% for just 2,012 yards with 12 TDs. FIU has a two solid but unspectacular RBs in Jones (750 yards / 5.0 YPA / 8 TDs) and Maxwell (589 yards / 5.4 YPA and 7 TDs) plus a receiving corps without a notable player. Marshall QB Green is no better than Morgan, completing 58.4% for 2,115 yards with 13 TDs and nine INTs. Like Morgan, his receiving corps lacks a "play-maker" but Marshall will own the best offensive player on the field in RB Knox (1,138 yards / 5.4 YPA / 10 TDs).

Marshall can't count of FAU losing but it can win here and then wait to see what happens tonight in Boca Raton. Doc Holliday's Thundering Herd have been 'bowling' in FIVE of the last six seasons and have won EACH bowl contest! He's built a winning program and while Marshall is 1-5 ATS at home, it is 5-1 SU, averaging 31.8 PPG. FIU's win over Miami was a HUGE deal (most agree it was the program's most significant victory) and win or lose here, the Panthers' bowl destination will not be affected. Coming off the Miami win, how does one NOT go against a team that is 0-4 on the road in 2019, getting outscored 43.0-to-17.2 PPG!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Memphis at 3:30 ET.

The highest-ranked Group of 5 conference champ will earn a spot in a New Year's Six Bowl game. No. 18 Memphis is currently the highest-ranked team in the CFP rankings and it will host No. 19 Cincinnati on Friday. The winner of this game will host the AAC championship game on Dec 7. If Memphis wins on Friday, it will be rematch with Cincinnati. However, if the Bearcats win, they will host the title game but if Navy beats Houston (Midshipmen are currently favored by 8.5 points ), Navy, NOT Memphis, would be Cincy's opponent. Got all that?

Cincinnati has only one loss this season, against the nation's No. 2 team, Ohio State (No. 1 in CFP rankings) in its second game of the season. The Bearcats enter this contest on a NINE-game winning streak but THREE of their last four wins have come by three, three and two points. Sophomore QB Desmond Ridder has played the last two games with a shoulder injury, as the Bearcats have failed to pass for more than 100 yards in consecutive games for the first time since 1997 (had 78 yards against USF and 62 against Temple). However, Cincy's passing game hasn't been much all season, averaging just 179.5 YPG (110th). RB Warren (939 yards / 4.8 YPA / 11 TDs) is joined by two other RBs with 400-plus yards on the season, as Cincy's running game ranks 34th (197.3 PPG). Cincy's defense is allowing just 19.9 PPG (23rd) and that includes two games in which it allowed 42 (Ohio St) and 43 points (East Carolina?).

Memphis owns the best offense Cincy has faced since Ohio St. The Tigers are averaging 42.2 PPG (8th) behind the passing of QB Brady White (67.1% for 3,074 yards with 30 TDs and seven INTs) and the running of Kenneth Gainwell (1,294 yards on 6.8 YPA with 12 TDs). Memphis enters with a streak of FIVE consecutive contests of 40 or more points and three straight games with more than 510 yards of total offense. Memphis head coach Mike Norvell is in his fourth season and will have his Tigers in a bowl for the fourth straight year. The question is, what kind of bowl?

Anything less than a New Year's Six one, at this point, would be a disappointment. To accomplish that, Memphis will have to beat Cincy here and again, NEXT Saturday. Here's the good news. Memphis is 5-0 SU at home in 2019, outscoring opponents 41.2-to-24.4 PPG. What's more,under Norvell, Memphis is 13-1 SU and ATS (that's 93%), in the month of November (home or away), averaging 49.1 PPG. I'm NOT stepping in front of this 'train!'

Good luck...Larry

My 10* Rivalry Rout (Egg Bowl) is on Ole Miss at 7:30 ET.

Sure there are state bragging rights involved in this year's "Egg Bowl" (always are) but Mississippi State has added motivation entering  its regular-season finale against its bitter rival on Thanksgiving night. The Bulldogs have made a bowl appearance in a school-record NINE consecutive seasons and can extend that streak to an an 10 when they host Ole Miss on Thursday night. As for Ole Miss, the Rebels can do no better than match last year's disappointing 5-7 season by earning a fifth win in 2019 with a victory over their bitter rival.

Matt Luke became the interim head coach at Ole Miss after Hugh Freeze was forced to resign back in June of 2017. After a late season push allowed Ole Miss to finish 6–6, the interim tag was removed on November 26, 2017 and he became the 37th head football coach in school history. However, last year's 5-7 record (1-7 in the SEC) put some pressure on Luke. Luke didn't "stand pat," as he hired two successful former head coaches as his offensive and defensive coordinators. Rich Rodriguez (OC) and Mike MacIntyre (DC) are his new coordinators. However, Ole Miss checks in at 4-7, including 2-5 in the SEC. The Rebels' hopes tonight will rest on rest freshman QB John Rhys Plumlee, who already has rushed for 989 yards and 11 TDs. In his last game (11/16 vs No. 1 LSU), he ran for a season-high 212 yards and four rushing TDs. RB Jerrion Ealy also set a season high with 141 yards rushing on only 13 carries vs the Tigers. Ealy is part of a trio of RBs who have for for between 481 and 640 yards on the season, accounting for 15 TDs. Ole Miss ranks 7th in the nation in rushing, averaging 261.5 YPG on 5.6 YPC. MacIntyre has not done much to improve the Rebels' defense, as Ole Miss enters this final game of the season allowing 27.0 PPG (62nd).

Miss St is just one win shy of bowl-eligibility but the Bulldogs 'limp' into this contest having dropped FIVE of six before routing overmatched FCS foe Abilene Christian 45-7 last weekend. Speculation regarding the status of Miss St head coach Joe Moorhead  is swirling, if the bowl streak ends Thursday. "We have to do two things: make sure we play well and keep the Egg here in Starkville," Moorhead said. "If we do that, then we will extend the season and get to play in a bowl game." RB Kylin Hill is the SEC's leader rusher (1,215  yards on 5.8 YPA and 11 TDs) and needs 176 yards to match the school's single-season record. The QB situation has been in flux all season, as Tommy Stevens has thrown for fewer yards (934) than backup Garrett Shrader (1,062). MSU must avoid another slow start, as teh Bulldogs have scored a combined 13 points in the first quarter of their six losses. The Bulldogs' D is slightly worse than the Rebels, allowing 28.8 PPG (75th).

Joe Moorhead (only previous head coaching job was at Fordham) was hired as the head coach at Mississippi State before the 2018 season, replacing Dan Mullen who had been with Mississippi State for nine seasons before being hired by the University of Florida. (Mullen led MSU to a bowl in his final EIGHT seasons at Starkville). Moorhead looks a poor fit at MSU, as this season's 2-5 SU & ATS record in SEC games attest. Meanwhile, Ole Miss has played much better in the SEC, going 6-1 ATS (lone non-cover was a seven-point loss to A&M as a six-point underdog). There has NOT been a home field edge in recent Egg Bowls, as the visiting team has won and covered each of the last four years. Look for Ole Miss to 'spoil' Miss St's bowl aspirations in this one.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Cal at 4:00 ET.

California opened the 2019 season 4-0 and was ranked 15th in the AP poll when it lost a Friday night home game on Sep 27 to Arizoan St, 24-17. That defeat began a four-game slide and Cal will enter Saturday gamer with Stanford just 5-5 (2-5 Pac-12), one win shy of becoming bowl-eligible. Stanford comes in 4-6 (3-5 Pac-12), having lost as back-to-back games to Colorado and Washington State.The two rivals meet Saturday in Palo Alto for the 122nd edition of the "Big Game." Stanford leads the series 64-46-11 but more importantly, has won the last NINE games in this series. The "Big Game" is the oldest college football rivalry in the West.

Cal's D was superb early on in its 4-0 start, allowing just 17.3 PPG. Even after losing FIVE of six, the Bears enters this contest allowing a modest 22.7 PPG (37th) on 387.5 YPG (61st). The problem has been an offense averaging only 18.9 PPG (117th) on 304.2 YPG (122nd). QB Chase Garbers returned last week after missing the previous four games with a right shoulder injury but was 4-for-10 for 33 yards before leaving the game in the second quarter with an undisclosed injury. If Garbers is unavailable Saturday, the Bears will turn to junior Devon Modster, who has thrown five touchdowns and five interceptions while appearing in six games this season. Speaking of QBs, Stanford will be without the injured K.J. Costello again this Saturday. Davis Mills started in place of Costello last week and completed 33-of-50 passes for 504 yards with three TDs and a pair of interceptions, but the Cardinal lost 49-22 at Washington St. The Cardinal defense allowed 624 total yards to the Cougars and is allowing 28.9 PPG (76th) on 429.1 YPG (94th). 

David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but it's all come "crashing down" in 2019. The injury-depleted Cardinal have started a total of 37 different players this season and the team's semi-depleted secondary is allowing 281.4 YPG (119th). I'm calling for Cal to end a frustrating NINE-game-losing skid in the "Big Game!” 

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on UCLA at 3:30 ET.

USC earned back-to-back road wins at Arizona State and Cal and moved into the College Football Playoff rankings for the the first time this season at No. 23. The Trojans are 7-4 overall and at 6-2 in the Pac-12 South, they are just a half-game back of Utah, which has two games left. USC only has this game with UCLA remaining, so a win would leave USC at 7-2 in conference play. That means Utah would need to win its last two games (Utes will be huge a favorite in both), because USC's 30-23 over Utah gives the Trojans the tie-breaker.All that said, Clay Helton's future as USC head coach is anything but settled (rumors of a possible Urban Meyer or James Franklin hiring are swirling).

UCLA visits the LA Coliseum 4-6 (4-3 Pac-12) and would need to win here and at home to Cal next weekend just to become bowl-eligible. UCLA was on a 4-2 SU (4-1-1 ATS) run after an 0-3 SU & ATS start to 2019 but last Saturday in Salt Lake City, got steamrolled 49-3 loss by Utah. After a 3-9 (3-6 Pac-12) record in his first season at Westwood, Chip Kelly would be hailed as a hero with closing wins over crosstown rival USC and a home win over Cal.

The Bruins have won FOUR of the last seven meetings with the Trojans, including a 34-27 victory last season at the Rose Bowl when Joshua Kelley ran for a series-record 289 yards. Kelley currently ranks second in the Pac-12 in rushing behind Utah's Zach Moss, who holds an average-per-game lead of 106.1 to 104.3. Kelley has 939 rushing yards (4.8 YPA / 9 TDs) and is trying to become the first Bruin since Paul Perkins in 2014 to lead the Pac-12 in rushing. Sophomore QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson has had an erratic season but it's hard NOT to remember him passing for five TDs and running for two in UCLA's amazing 67-63 comeback win at Wash St back on Sep 21. UCLA's defense is a mess, allowing 33.7 PPG (111th) on 442.0 YPG (105th).

Freshman Kedon Slovis began the season as USC's third-string QB but due to injuries, he's played most of the season and has put up impressive numbers. He turned in his third 400-yard passing game of the season in last week's 41-17 win at Cal, completing 29-of-35 passes for 406 yards, four TDs and no interceptions against a Bears defense that had allowed just nine passing scores all season. He's completing 70.8% with 24 TDs and just nine INTs. on the season. He has three "big-time" WRs, who have all caught 60-plus passes for a combined 20 TD receptions. The best of the group is Michael Pittman Jr, who has 82 catches and nine TDs. However, for a school once called "Running Back U," USC is averaging 126.1 YPG rushing (111th), on 4.1 YPA. The USC defense is at best average, allowing 27.1 PPG (64th) on 403.9 YPG (70th).

Embattled head coach Clay Helton has plenty of motivation here but rumors seem to point to the fact that he's "OUT" at the the end of the season, no matter what. I expect expect UCLA to "play hard" against this hateful crosstown rival and noting that Clay Helton is only 5-10 ATS his last 15 as a home favorite, has me taking about two TDs!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* play is on Texas at 3:30 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. The 2019 Bears survived four "close calls' to open 9-0 and appeared well on their way to win No. 10 and sole possession of first place in the Big 12 but somehow blew a 25-point lead in a stunning 34-31 loss to Oklahoma last Saturday. Baylor must regroup and resume its pursuit for a Big 12 title and a spot in the conference title game. The Bears need one win in their final two games to play for the league championship and they can clinch that spot by beating visiting Texas on Saturday afternoon.

Texas opened 10th in the AP's preseason poll but lost its second game 45-38 to then-No. 6 LSU. The Longhorns won three straight after that but then lost their annual game with then-No. 6 Oklahoma in the Cotton Bowl, 34-27. A two-point win over Kansas was followed by a 37-27 loss at TCU. However, Texas eked out a 27-24 home win on Nov 9 against then-No. 16 Kansas St, getting Texas back in the polls (19th in the CFP rankings). However, Texas lost another "close one" last Saturday at Iowa St, losing 23-21 on a last-second FG. The Longhorns are now 6-4 (4-3 in the Big 12) and only hold a faint chance of reaching the league title game.

QB Sam Ehlinger rallied the Longhorns with a pair of TD passes in the fourth quarter last week and broke the school single-season record held by Colt McCoy with his sixth game with at least three TD passes. Ehlinger has 27 TDs and just eight INTs on the season, with WR Devin Duvernay hauling in eight TDs (87 catches). The problem for Texas against Iowa St was that the team ran for just 54 yards (Texas is averaging a modest 161.9 YPG which ranks 68th). Defensively, Texas has struggled all season, allowing 29.9 PPG (84th) on 449.4 YPG (110th).

Baylor QB Charlie Brewer ran for two TDs and threw for two, as the Bears opened up a 31-10 halftime lead over Oklahoma, but Baylor did not score in the second half, and ran only 15 plays on its last four possessions. Brewer has completed 66.8% for 2,532 yards with 18 TDs and just five INTs on the season. RBs Lovett and Hasty each have just over 500 yards, as Baylor averages 180.7 YPG on the ground (45th). WR Mims is Baylor's most dangerous pass-catcher with 50 catches on 15.3 YPC for 10TDs. Baylor is averaging 34.9 PPG (26th) and allowing 20.5 PPG (24th)

Baylor is the better team but I'm not buying Matt Rhule saying, "Our team learned a lot from that game," after the game. "They learned, No. 1, what we can be - for the first half we looked like not just a top-10, but a top-five team in the country. Then, secondly, the second half showed us what we still have to do." Texas has won FOUR straight against Baylor and eight of 11 at Baylor since the schools joined the Big 12. Throw in that Tom Herman is now 15-4 ATS as an underdog with Houston and Texas and I'm taking the points!

Good luck...Larry

My NCAAF 10* "signature" 36-Club play is on Navy at 3:30 ET.

My 9* Eye Opener is on Tulane at 12:00 ET.

UCF totaled just one loss in 2017 and 2018 (none in AAC play) but the 2019 season has not unfolded the way the Knights had hoped. First came last-second l35-34 loss at Pitt on Sep 21, which ended UCF's 27-game regular season winning streak, followed by a 27-24 loss at Cincinnati on Oct 4, which ended the school's 19-game AAC winning streak. UCF fell for a THIRD time in 2019 when it went scoreless in the fourth quarter and gave up the lead in a 34-31 setback at Tulsa last week (note" Tulsa entered the game 2-7 on the season). The Knights will try to bounce back from that loss when they visit Tulane on Saturday. The Green Wave let a promising start to the 2019 season (Tulane opened 5-1) and a chance at a spot in the AAC championship slip away with losses in THREE of their last four games, after losing 29-21 at Temple last Saturday.

Freshman QB Gabriel is completing 60.6% for 2,806 yards for UCF, throwing 24 TDs against just seven INTs. WRs Davis (59 catches / 18.0 YPC / 10 TDs) and Nixon (41 catches / 17.2 YPC / 7 TDs) have each had excellent seasons. Four RBs have gained between 401 and 609 rushing yards for the Knights, as UCF averages 220.2 YPG (19th) on 5.1 YPA. UCF's defense has allowed a modest 23.6 PPG (41st) on 348.6 YPG (34th) but I'll look a little closer, in a bit.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! As noted, after a 5-1 start, a second straight winning season looked like a sure thing. However, Tulane is 6-4 entering this contest and after hosting UCF (Tulane is a home dog), the Green Wave will have to visit SMU (Mustangs are currently 9-1 and sit 21st in the AP poll and 25th in the CFP rankings). QB Justin McMillan is a true dual-threat, passing for 1,806 yards (13 TDs) and rushing for 552 yards (12 TDs). However,he was awful in last Saturday's loss at Temple, completing just 11-of-27 passes for 103 yards. McMillan is Tulane's leading rusher but five RBs have gained between 221 and 459 yards, allowing Tulane to rush for 255.4 YPG (11th) on 5.6 YPA. Tulane is averaging 34.9 PPG (27th) and allowing 25.8 PPG (55th)

Getting back to UCF, the Knights are averaging 44.8 PPG (7th) but the defense has struggled badly in each of its losses. UCF has allowed an average of 32.0 PPG in those losses. Tulane already has six wins (bowl eligible) but still needs one more 'W" to insure a winning regular season. Tulane sure won't want to have to win at SMU on Nov 30, so that makes this game a little more important. Yes, UCF is having a 'down year' at 7-3 but a win over the Knights would mean a great deal to the Green Wave program. What's more, Tulane is a perfect 5-0 SU & ATS at home in 2019 (outscoring opponents on average, 45.0-to-16.8 PPG), and a victory on Saturday would give Tulane an undefeated season at home for the first time since 1998! I want the points with his very 'live' home 'dog!

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Situational Stunner is on Baylor at 7:30 ET.

Matt Rhule left Temple to take over a troubled Baylor program (scandal) in December of 2016 and the Bears finished the 2017 season with a 1–11 record, as Baylor failed to qualify for a bowl for the first time since 2009. Baylor finished the 2018 regular season 6-6 and received an invite to the 2018 Texas Bowl, where the Bears won 45-38 over Vanderbilt to finish the season with a 7-6 record. Here in 2019, Baylor is 9-0 (ranked 12th in the AP and 13th in the CFP) and at 6-0 in league play is the lone undefeated team left in the Big 12 (but just barely!). The Bears survived a scare from West Virginia on Oct 31 in a 17-14 home win as an 18-point favorite and then needed three OTs to edge TCU 29-23 last Saturday in Fort Worth. The Oklahoma Sooners (No. 10 in both the AP& CFP) come to Waco on Saturday at 8-1 (5-1 in the Big 12), off their only loss of 2019 on Oct 26 (48-41 at Kansas St) and then following a bye, a 42-41 home win over Iowa St on Nov 9. Oklahoma nearly blew a 21-point 4th-quarter lead, needing to intercept a two-point conversion pass with 24 seconds remaining to hold on for the one-point win. 42-41 victory over Iowa State.

Even through back-to-back 'squeakers' (the loss to Kansas State and last week's 42-41 win over Iowa State), Jalen Hurts and the Oklahoma offense has continued to put up big numbers. Jalen Hurts is completing 73.3% for 2,742 yards with 24 TDs and just four INTs. He leads the nation in passing efficiency with a rating of 219.7, which is better than the mark of Oklahoma's Heisman-winning Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield in the past two seasons.He is also OU's leading rusher, gaining 869 yards (7.0 YPA / 15 TDs), to lead a running game averaging 249.4 YPG (12th) on 6.9 YPA. WR CeeDee Lamb was named Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week for the second time this season after tying a school record with his fifth career game of at least 160 yards receiving, finishing with 167 to go along with two TDs against the Cyclones. He has 44 catches (22.3 YPC / 13 TDs), while fellow WR Rambo has 27 catches (21.3 YPC / 5 TDs).

The Bears scored all three of their TDs vs the Horned Frogs after regulation and has been led all season by the dramatically-improved play of QB Charlie Brewer (67.3% / 2,339 yards with 16 TDs and 4 INTs). WR Mims leads the receiving corps with 44 catches (15.3 YPC / 8 TDs), and made a pair of athletic grabs in last Saturday's OT win. The running game is solid (188.2 YPG (41st) on 5.0 YPA. Two players split the workload, Lovett (532 YR / 6.3 YPSA) and Hasty (461 RY / 5.8 YPA). Baylor is averaging 35.3 PPG (27th) but the Bears can't match up with Oklahoma, which ranks 2nd in the nation at 48.4 PPG. However, Baylor's D is the best in the Big 12, allowing just 19.0 PPG (17th nationally) on 337.4 YPG (31st).

Sure Baylor's had numerous "close calls" this season but the Bears remain unbeaten and are tied with Minnesota for the nation's third-longest winning streak (11 in a row). Baylor has outscored five opponents at home by an average of 38.4-to-19.2 PPG. The Bears will surely NOT be intimidated by Oklahoma, after watching the Sooners their last two games. Baylor's D will be the best one Hurts has seen this year (note: Baylor owns a Big 12-best 29 sacks this season) and the offense is 'licking its chops' about facing an Oklahoma defense allowing 44.5 points on 451.5 YPG its last two. Matt Rhule has thrived in the role of an underdog as of late, going 9-2 ATS his last 11 (82%). I'm taking the points in what just may be a 'dry run' for a rematch in the Big 12 championship game (No. 1 plays No. 2).

Good luck...Larry

My 10* LEGEND Play is on Iowa at 4:00 ET.

My 9* Eye-Opener is on Temple at 12:00 ET.

Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016 and in his third season (2018), led the Green Wave to a 7-6 season after their 41-24 win over ULL in the Cure Bowl. It marked just the school's SECOND winning season in the previous 16 seasons! The Green Wave opened 2019 at 5-1 but lost their final two Octobers games. Tulane beat Tulsa 38-26 on Nov 2 and comes into this contest at Temple off a bye at 6-3. One win in its last three would give Tulane a second straight winning season but the Green Wave face a very good Temple team here, then are home to 7-3 UCF and at 9-1 SMU (not an easy stretch).

Temple entered the 2019 season off four straight bowl appearances but began the current season with its THIRD different head coach in four years. Matt Rhule left for Baylor after the 2016 season, Geoff Collins for Ga Tech after 2018 and Temple hired Rod Carey to begin the current season. Carey took North Illinois to FIVE bowls in six years as the school's head coach, although the Huskies lost all five. Temple opened the season 5-1, including wins over then-No. 21 Maryland and then-No. 23 Memphis but consecutive bad losses followed, 45-21 at then-No. 19 SMU and 63-21 at UCF. However, Temple earned its sixth victory a week ago last Thursday, in a 17-7 win at USF.

Tulane QB Justin McMillan threw a touchdown pass and ran for three scores in Tulane's recent win over Tulsa, helping the team earn bowl eligibility. He's averaging a modest 170.3 YPG through the air (13 TDs and 9 INTs) but is also Tulane's leading rusher (488 yards on 5.0 YPA with 12 TDs). FIVE more players have run for between 200 and 455 yards, as Tulane ranks 10th in the nation with 261.2 YPG on the ground. Tulane's D has played pretty well, allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th). In fact, the Green Wave defense has held SIX of its nine opponents below its season average in total yards.

A fumble return for a touchdown against USF highlighted a strong defensive effort by Temple, after the Owls had allowed 108 points in losing their previous two games. However, also Temple set a season low with 17 points scored, as QB Anthony Russo was held under 200 yards passing for the third straight game (Russo has 16 TD passes and nine INTs). RBs Davis (655 YR / 4.9 YPA / 5 TDs) and Gardner (538 RY / 4.3 YPA / 5 TDs each contribute but Temple's averaging a modest 26.4 PPG (81st) on offense. The defense is allowing 25.4 PPG (52nd) on 364.4 YPG (45th).

Here's the key to this contest and my bet on Temple. Tulane has been a different team on the road, going 1-3 SU, with their three losses by a combined 51 points! Meanwhile, Temple is 4-1 SU and ATS at home, with its 'ugly' 63-21 loss to UCF being an outlier. The Owls' Sep 21 loss at Buffalo looks like an aberration, as and their only other defeats were to 9-1 SMU and 7-3 UCF. In Temple's four home wins, its defense has allowed a total of just 59 points (12.3 per), limiting opposing rushing attacks to an average of 110.5 YPG and three rushing TDs (tough matchup for Tulane's strength, its running game). One last thing, Temple also checks in 8-2 ATS (80% ATS) as a home dog since the beginning of 2015 (the first of the school's four straight bowl teams). Take the points, here!

Good luck...Larry

My 10* MAC Game of the Year is on Toledo at 8:00 ET.

The Northern Illinois Huskies have been a "bowl regular," making 12 bowl appearances over the previous 15 seasons, including 10 of the last 11. Rod Carey was the school's head coach the last six seasons but he left for Temple. Tom Hammond, the Baltimore Ravens running backs coach.from 2014-18, was given his first head coaching job at DeKalb. Northern Illinois beat Illinois St 24-10 to open the 2019 season but the Huskies then lost FOUR in a row. NIU lost three in a row on the road (35-17 at Utah, 44-8 at Nebraska and 24-18 at Vandy), before losing its MAC opener 27-20 at home to Ball St. The Huskies then won two of three MAC games but on Nov 2, got crushed 48-10 at Central Michigan, leaving them 3-6 (2-3 in the MAC West) on the season.

Toledo knows all about winning seasons, as the Rockets entered 2019 with 21 in their last 25. The Rockets have posted a winning record in each of the last NINE years (eight bowl trips) and at 6-3 (3-2 in the MAC West), are bowl-eligible and barring an 0-3 finish, will record a NINTH winning season the last 10 seasons. This matchup has decided the West winner in FOUR of the last five years but that will NOT be the case in 2019.

Marcus Childers started at QB for NIU against Akron, as Ross Bowers was recovering from a concussion. He only attempted nine passes but completed seven for 71 yards, while throwing three TD passes to THREE different receivers. NIU won that game 49-0 but the Zips are 0-9 and own CFB's longest active losing streak at 14 in a row (pending Tuesday's outcome vs EMU). Bowers was back in action at CMU on Nov 2 but threw three INTs in the 48-10 loss. He's completing only 57.9% with more INTs (8) than TD passes (6) on the season. Let's NOT put all the blame on Bowers, as Toledo managed just 22 yards rushing against CMU, averaging 0.9 YPA. NIU checks in averaging a putrid 118.8 YPG on the ground (117th) on 3.4 YPA. Defensively, NIU is allowing 27.9 PPG (70th).

Toledo has some QB issues as well, as Mitchell Guadagni has completed 64.8% with eight TDs and just two INTs but hasn't played since Oct 12. He continues to be listed as questionable and Toledo has started Eli Peters the last two games. Peters had 18 TDs and seven INTs in 2018 and while he's thrown for a modest 332 yards (3 TDs / 1 INT) in two starts, the Rockestshave won both while scoring 37 and 35 points. RB Bryant Koback (1,099 yards on 6.5 YPA with 10 TDs) ran for 259 yards and two TDs in that 37-34 OT win over Eastern Michigan and added 67 yards with two TDs against Kent on Nov 5, before leaving the game with an injury. However, fellow RB Shakif Seymour (560 yards on 4.7 YPA and 4 TDs) took over and ran for a career high 175 yards with two TDs. The Toledo D has struggled all season, allowing 467.9 YPG (118th), while allowing 28.6 YPG (75th).

The winner of this contest will NOT represent the West in the MAC championship game (Dec 7) but of the two schools, Toledo still can finish with a fairly good season. This is Toledo's final road game and the Rockets will be tested at Buffalo and CMU in their final two games. Toledo is 5-0 SU at home this season (outscoring opponents 35.2-to-22.4), improving their home record to 48-12 in their 60 games at the Glass Bowl. The Huskies play their final road game of 2019 in this one, checking in with a 1-5 record, getting outscored 35.7-to-19.3 PPG in 2019. What changes here?

Good luck...Larry

My 10* SEC Game of the Year is on Kentucky at 7:30 ET.

Phillip Fulmer took over as Tennessee's head coach during the 1992 season for Johnny Majors. He would go on to coach 16 full season at Knoxville, winning 10 or more games NINE times, while taking the Vols to a bowl game in 15 of 17 years (includes 1992, when he took over for Majors). His 1998 team won the national championship with a 13-0 record. However, he was let go (allowed to resign) in 2008 and the Vols have not reached double digits in wins in ANY of the last 10 seasons (high-mark was nine wins in 2015 and 2016). Jeremy Pruitt's first season ended 5-7 and then he began Year 2 with what many are calling "the worst defeat in program history!" The Vols hosted a Georgia St team which came in after closing 2018 with SEVEN straight losses and as a 25-point underdog, beat the Vols 38-30. The Vols opened 1-4 (lone win 45-0 over Chattanooga) but visit long-time rival Kentucky, having gone 3-1 and 4-0 ATS. Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops led the Wildcats to a 10-3 season in 2018, including a 27-24 upset of Penn St in the Citrus Bowl. The 10 wins matched the second-most in school history for a single season, as only Kentucky's 1950 team won more, going 11-1. Kentucky comes in off a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26 but enters this contest just 4-4.

The Volunteers have started three QBs but junior Jarrett Guarantano has thrown the majority of the passes (161 of 243) and has 11 of the team's 14 TD passes (against five INTs). A quick check of the numbers reveal taht Tennessee is scoring 24.7 PPG on 349.0 YPG, while allowing 24.1 PPG on 3451.0 YPG (hard to make those almost identical numbers up). The Vols have just three games left and need TWO wins to become bowl-eligible. I've read where some think the Vols are surging but I view the team's recent 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS run as nothing more than them taking advantage of some flawed opponents at home and covering a big spread (+34.5) while losing 35-13 at Alabama.

Kentucky knows all about QB merry-go-rounds, as an injury to starter Terry Wilson and ineffective play by Sawyer Smith has forced Stoops to turn to receiver turned quarterback, Lynn Bowden Jr. Bowden started the year as a receiver, catching 30 passes for 348 yards but is now lining up under center. He's completing just 40.5 percent of his passes but has excelled as a runner, highlighted by a 204-yard game in Kentucky's most recent game, a 29-7 victory over Missouri on Oct 26. However, Bowden has also made some unique history in two recent games for the Wildcats. Against South Carolina, he joined Arizona State's Kalen Ballage as the only FBS players since 2000 to have at least six rushing attempts, three receptions, three kickoff returns and two pass completions in the same game. A week later against Arkansas, he had at least 20 rush attempts, 10 pass attempts and a punt return in the same game to become the third FBS player since 2000 to do so along with Kent State's Julian Edelman and Indiana's Antwaan Randle-El.

Both schools are two wins shy of bowl eligibility but while Kentucky has four game left, Tennessee only has three and one is at Missouri, where the Tigers are 5-0. Historically, beating the Wildcats has been near-automatic for the Vols, as Kentucky has only beaten Tennessee TWICE since 1984! However, the Vols lost at Kentucky in 2017, for just the second time in 33 years. That said, Kentucky is 4-1 SU at home in 2019 and 5-0 ATS, as the Wildcats covered their lone home loss against Florida, in a 29-21 loss. Revisiting that contest, the Wildcats led 21-10 early in the 4th quarter, before folding. My bet says Kentucky, not Tennessee, is the team surging. The Wildcats win at home vs Missouri began a closing stretch of playing FOUR of their last five games in Lexington, plus the lone road game is against a 2-6 Vandy team. Win here, the Wildcats could finish with EIGHT wins, before heading off to a bowl.

Good luck...Larry

My 9* Weekend Wipeout is on Stanford at 3:00 ET.

David Shaw took over as Stanford's head coach when John Harbaugh left for the NFL (49ers). Shaw's first season was in 2011 and he's led the Cardinal to EIGHT straight bowls, winning 10-plus games in FIVE of those seasons, while also ending the year ranked in the final AP poll SIX times. That's quite a record but at 4-4 (3-3 in Pac 12), the Cardinal will need to win TWO of their final four games in 2019 to become bowl eligible for the 11th consecutive season (ninth under Shaw). Colorado has a first-year head coach in Mel Tucker and after a 3-1 start, his Buffs have lost FIVE in a row (Buffs are 3-6 / 1-5 Pac 12).

Stanford comes into this contest off a 41-31 home win over Arizona, a game marked by the return of senior K.J. Costello, who had missed the previous three contests with a thumb injury. Costello showed few signs of any rust, completing 30-of-43 for 312 yards and three TDs. Costello has 'game,' as he showed last season by throwing for 3,540 yards with 29 TDs and just 11 INTs. Against Arizona, he connected with 12 different receivers. Senior RB Cameron Scarlett (700 YR / 4.4 YPA / 5 TDs) provided balance on the ground with 102 yards and two TDs. Stanford's offensive numbers are poor (22.6 PPG on 348.8 YPG) but with Costello back under center, that could (WILL) change.

While Stanford's offense is "on the mend," QB Montez and the Colorado offense has 'gone in the tank,' after a hot start. The Buffs opened 3-1 while averaging 35.8 PPG but Colorado 'limps' into this contest having lost FIVE in row, with the team scoring 14 or less points in THREE of its last four outings. Montez was expected to take a HUGE step forward in 2019 but that hasn't been the case, as he's thrown for a modest 2,242 yards with 14 TDs and nine INTs. However, it's hard to focus too much on Montez, when Colorado's defense has allowed 34.4 PPG (114th) on 480.7 YPG (124th).

Colorado has allowed 30 or more points in all NINE games and has allowed 333.7 YPG passing in its last three. That's "bad news' with Costello back healthy for Stanford. Thd Cardinal will likely finish with their worst record under Shaw but then again, Shaw' has compiled a 25-7 record in the month of November and he's got FOUR of them in 2019. I expect Stanford to finish strong (and extend that bowl streak). The Cardinal "got going" on the final Saturday of October with that win over Arizona (see above) and coming off a bye week, are "rested and ready" to roll over a Colorado team which is stumbling to the finish line. Blowout Alert!

Good luck...Larry