Ricky's 7* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Over is 5-0 in Green Bay's last 5 games.

- The Over is 5-2 in Minnesota's last 7 games against Green Bay.

- The Over is 4-1 in Green Bay's last 5 games against an opponent in the National Football Conference.

Verdict: We should see plenty of scoring in this game.

Ricky's 10* play on Under.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Under is 6-1 in the Chargers last 7 home games.

- The Under is 6-0 in the Chargers last 6 games overall.

- The Under is 5-2 in the Lions last 7 games in November.

Verdict: Points should be hard to come by in this game.

Ricky's 10* play on Under.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The under is 12-4 in the Ravens last 16 games.

- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference North division.

- The under is 7-3 in the Bengals last 10 games.

Verdict: Points should be hard to come by in this game.

Ricky's 10* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the history of these teams is quite significant.

Key Trends:

- The Over is 5-0-1 in the Giants last 6 games on fieldturf.

- The Over is 6-1 in the Vikings last 7 games overall.

- The Over is 4-1 in the Vikings last 5 games in January.

Verdict: We should see plenty of scoring in this game.

Ricky's 10* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the history of these teams is quite significant.

Key Trends:

-  The Over is 5-1 in the Jets last 6 games in Week 13.

-  The Over is 5-1 in the  Vikings last 6 games in December.

-  The Over is 4-0 in Vikings last 4 home games versus. a team with a winning road record.

Verdict: We should see plenty of scoring in this game.

Ricky's 10* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the history of these teams is quite significant.

Key Trends:

- The Over is 7-1 in the Chiefs last 8 road games.

- The Over is 9-2 in the Chargers last 11 games on fieldturf.

- The Under is 6-1 in the Chiefs last 7 games in November.

Verdict: We should see plenty of scoring in this game.

Ricky's 10* play on Over. 

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the history of these teams is quite significant.

Key Trends:

- The over is 8-3-1 in the Raiders last 12 games in October.

- The over is 9-3 in the Chiefs last 12 games overall.

- The over is 4-0 in the last four head to head meetings.

Verdict: History tells us we should expect a high score.

Ricky's 10* play on Under.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the history of these teams is quite significant.

Key Trends:

- The under is 34-16-2 in the Bengals last 52 games as a road underdog.

- The under is 20-7-2 in the Bengals last 29 road games.

- The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Verdict: The Cowboys have all sorts of problems on offense, but their defense looks great.

Ricky's 10* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The Seahawks rank last in the NFL in total defense.

- The Steelers scored a season high 27 points last week.

- The Seahawks won 28-26 in their last trip to Pittsburgh (2019).

Verdict: This low total may be a result of an over-correction due to injury news.

Ricky's 10* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The over is 10-1 in the Vikings last 11 games following a straight up loss.

- The over is 8-1 in the Vikings last nine home games.

- The over is 5-0 in the Vikings last five games overall.

Verdict: These two defenses haven't been able to make stops. Expect a high score.

Ricky's 10* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The over is 3-1-1 in the Ravens last five playoff road games.

- The over is 6-0 in the Titans last six games as an underdog.

- The over is 22-6-1 in the Titans last 29 games overall.

Verdict: The offense should outshine the defense in this game. 

Ricky's 7* play on Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- The over is 24-8 in the Buccaneers last 32 road games.

- The over is 10-4 in the Buccaneers last 14 games as a favorite.

- The over is 11-2 in the Lions last 13 home games.

Verdict: The Lions defense can't stop anybody, but they do score points.

Ricky's 10* play on Under

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

Key Trends:

- The under is 20-6 in the Steelers last 26 games as an underdog.

- The under is 39-12 in the Steelers last 51 road games.

- The under is 9-4 in the Steelers last 13 games overall.

Verdict: The Steelers #1 ranked run defense looks to shut down Derrick Henry.

Ricky's 10* play on Under 45.5.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

Key Trends:

- The under is 5-0 in the last five head to head meetings.

- The under is 12-4-1 in the Bengals last 17 games as an underdog.

- The under is 13-5 in the Chargers last 18 games as a favorite.

Verdict: Neither of these starting quarterbacks inspire much confidence. 

Ricky's 10* play on the Over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in the Super Bowl it's the Chiefs suspect defense and their high powered offense that are the key.

Key Trends:

- The over is 4-1-1 in the 49ers last six games overall.

- The over is 7-2 in the Chiefs last nine versus a team with a winning record.

- Mahomes has thrown for eight TDs and no INTs in two playoff games this season.

The verdict: look for this game to go over as the scoring picks up in the second half.

My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the OVER Packers/49ers.

If you're betting on this game, then I don't need to break down the strengths and weaknesses of each team. We all know the story lines here. 

These teams are similar. Each team has a better than average offense and defense. Both have dynamic, play-making QB's and explosive offensive weapons. Each is well coached. Special teams numbers are also close. 

The 49ers shut down Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in their regular season victory, but I believe that Green Bay will have to lean on Rodgers from start to finish if it has any shot at winning this game. If the veteran can put pressure on Garropolo, then perhaps the inexperienced pivot will have a letdown here.

Regardless, I expect the visitors to air this one out early and often on offense.

Key Trends:

- Green Bay has interestingly already seen the total go over the number in three of four this year after a win by six points or less.

- San Francisco has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten as a favorite.

The verdict: When it's all said and done, look for these two gun-slinging QB's to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries; play the over!

My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Hawks/Packers.

It may be cold and wintery at Lambeau today, but I expect these two teams to easily combine to push this total over the posted number once it's all said and done. Seattle comes in off the 17-9 win at Philly in the Wild Card round. 

Green Bay ranks 23rd against the rush, so Travis Homer and Marshawn Lynch will have their opportunities today, which will also in turn open things up for Russell Wilson to operate.

The Packers have had a week off to game-plan and heal up. The Hawks got "lucky" that Eagles' QB Carson Wentz went down with injury early, but I believe they'll have their hands full with Aaron Rodgers in this spot. Rogers and the offense finished sixth in the league in Red Zone efficiency as well.

Key Trends:

- Seattle has already seen both games it's played in this year go "over" the number after allowing 14 points or less in its previous outing.

- The Packers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last eight as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range.

The verdict: I think the Hawks "break the mold" this week. Seattle can't wait for Green Bay to make the first mistake here and with the visitors pushing from the "get go," I do indeed expect this one to soar well over the number once it's finished; play the over!

My 10* PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the OVER Titans/Ravens.

Both offenses are firing on all cylinders as we head into the Divisional Round. Ryan Tannehill and the Titans had their hands full with New England's defense last weekend. It was RB Derrick Henry who posted a monster day and he will also be leaned upon heavily here as well. Tannehill had a monster second half for the Titans and while he was relatively quiet in New England last weekend, I think he'll be the focal point of the visitors offense today. 

And what more can be said about LaMar Jackson which hasn't been said a millions times at this point by all the talking heads out there. Jackson's innate need to constantly be the best and to win, is likely the best asset he possesses as well. 

Key Trends:

- Tennessee has seen the total go over the number in three of four already this season as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

- Baltimore has seen the total soar over the number in five of its last six after two straight wins by ten points or more.

The verdict: After last week's lower-scoring matches in the Wild Card round, I'm expecting some fireworks in the Divisional. Especially in this highly anticipated contest; play the over!

My 10* TOP TOTAL is on the OVER Vikes/Saints.

Minnesota posted the "The Minneapolis Miracle" vs. the Saints in 2018, which sent the Vikes to the NFC Championship Game, so now New Orelans has an opportunity to avenge that setback. The Vikes are expected to have Dalvin Cook back in the line-up this week, but I still don't think it'll matter in this difficult road venue.

The Vikes' Kirk Cousins finished with 26 TD's and six INT's, while Saints' veteran Drew Brees finished with 27 TD's this season, despite missing several games with an injury. 

How does New Orleans gets its revenge today? Certainly not by playing conservatively or letting the Vikes dictate the tempo of play. If Brees is going to get the monkey off his back and earn another SB, he's going to have to put the pedal down from start to finish. Situationally I believe this one definitely sets up as a "shootout." 

Key Trends:

- Minnesota has seen the total go over the number in five of eight on the road this year.

- New Orleans has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten when playing the role of favorite.

The verdict: I believe these two veteran QB's in their primes will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries; play the over!

My 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH is on the OVER Packers/Vikings.

Green Bay travels to Minnesota in a pivotal matchup on Monday night. The Packers can wrap up the division tonight with a victory. The Vikings though have earned a playoff spot already with the 49ers' victory over the Rams, but they still have a shot at earning the division crown as well. As long as they win tonight. 

These teams feature two dynamic QB's and when the dust does finally settle at the end of this one, I think they'll have "stolen the show." Note that Packers' QB Aaron Rodgers has a sharp 24:2 TD:INT, while Vikings' pivot Kirk Cousins has a 25:5 TD:INT. 

Key Trends:

- Green Bay has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last seven after completing a two-game home stand (including both such instances this season.)

- Minnesota has seen the total soar over in four of five already this year vs. clubs with winning records.

The verdict: The Vikes play with revenge here. Cousins plays with a chip on his shoulder as he's 0-8 on Monday Night games in his career. The first game of this series went "under" the number, but the numbers and the overall situation each team finds itself in coming into this contest all point to the "over" as the savvy call tonight!

My 10* SLAUGHTER-FEST is on the OVER Chiefs/Bears.

Kansas City has clinched the division, but home field advantage in the playoffs is still up for grabs. The Bears are now out of playoff contention though and are just playing for pride and to play "spoiler" here.

Bears' QB Mitchell Trubisky though will be plenty motivated here to try and finish out the season on a high note after struggling to start it. 

The Chiefs though will be looking to deliver the knock out blow on the National stage, note that they come in averaging the fourth most points in the NFL at 28.1 per contest. 

Key Trends:

- Kansas City has seen the total go over the number in three of four already this year as a road favorite of seven points or less.

- Chicago has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after having won two out of its last three games SU.

The verdict: I believe Mahomes and Trubisky will be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries; play the over!

My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the OVER Bills/Patriots.

Buffalo plays with revenge here after falling at home to the Patriots earlier in the season. The Bills though come in off a big win over the Steelers and they now have ten victories in a season for the first time in two decades. Early on it was Buffalo's stifiling defense which "stole the show," but over the last month it's also been the improved play from QB Josh Allen and the offense. With nothing to lose today, I look for Buffalo to open up the playbook.

The Patriots are 11-3, but many have doubts about the play of QB Tom Brady. New England's defense has shown some cracks in the armor of late and I believe it'll be pushed here by this hungry visiting side. Brady plays with a chip on his shoulder as well today as he tries to guide his team to two more victories and a final 13-3 record. 

Key Trends:

- Buffalo has seen the total go over in six of its last eight after scoring seven points or less in the first half in two straight games.

- NE has seen the total go over the number in three of four already this season after covering as a double digit favorite.

The verdict: The overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, combined with the above strong O/U ATS stats, does indeed make the "over" the correct call in this one in my opinion!

My 10* TOTAL is on the OVER Bears/Packers.

Two teams that are very familiar with each other collide in the frigid confines of Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, this one has "shootout" written all over it. The Packers have been stalling of late, but they still have a chance for the No. 1 seed in the NFC at 10-3. The Bears though are 7-6 and they need to win this one to keep pace for a wildcard spot. Chicago though has won three in a row now, including probably its most impressive performance of the year in last week's 31-24 win over Dallas. More than anything, it's QB Mitchell Trubisky who has finally started to perform at a much higher level (244 passing yards and three TD's.) Packers' QB Aaron Rodgers has 23 TD's and only two INT's this season. 

Key Trends:

- Green Bay has seen the total go over in 11 of its last 14 off a home victory.

- The Packers have seen the total go over in eight of their last 12 as a home favorite of seven points or less. 

The verdict: Despite the conditions, I think it'll be these two competent QB's which become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries; play the over!

My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the UNDER Hawks/Rams.

What's the first thing you think about when you look at these two teams? Clearly it has to start with each side's QB. LA turns to Jared Goff, who took the Rams to the Super Bowl last year and who will need to have a big day if his team is to win here. The Hawks turn to Russell Wilson, who has won a Super Bowl and is one of the favorites to win the MVP this season. 

Each team has an underrated defense though. The Rams allow 245 passing yards per game and 104 rushing. The Hawks allow 281 passing yards and 99 rushing yards per contest. 

Key Trends:

- Seattle has interestingly seen the total go under the number in three of its last four after playing on Monday Night Football.

- LA has seen the total go under in its last five games in revenging a loss where an opponent scored 28 or more points.

The verdict: This is a big game for both teams. If Seattle wins, it clinches the division. The Rams HAVE to win to stay alive. I think each team tries to control the tempo of this one and put an added emphasis on ball control. These styles of contests invariably lead to lower-scoring games and that's exactly what I expect here; play the under!

My 10* play is on the Ravens/Bills under.

The Ravens have won eight in a row behind the great play of QB Lamar Jackson and a steadily improving defense. The Bills are also putting together an exceptional season, behind a stellar defense and an improving offense. There are many story lines to this contest, but I think that in the end, this one will fall below the posted number. 

Key Trends:

- The Ravens rank fifth in the league in points allowed with just 18.2.

- Buffalo has given up just 38 points over its last three games.

The verdict: Both teams depend on the run to score, with Baltimore ranked No. 1 and Buffalo ranked No. 5. Five of these team's last seven in the series have fallen under the number and everything points to another low-scoring battle on Sunday; play the under!

My 10* play is on the OVER Rams/Cardinals.

The Rams are coming off a terrible blowout loss at home to the Ravens. Baltimore has been playing incredibly tough defense of late though and I think that Jared Goff and company can rebound here vs. the porous Cardinals' defense. 

Arizona has lost four straight, but it comes out of its bye week and with nothing to lose (except another game), I look for Kyler Murray and company open up the playbook as they look to deal their divisional opponent another blow.

From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a "shootout" in my opinion.

Key Trends:

- The Rams have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five following a home loss.

- The Cards have seen the total go over the number in four of five at home already.

The verdict: A repeat performance to the Super Bowl is now out of the question for St. Louis, but Goff is playing for his career and pride for the rest of the season. The Cards are rested and focussed and in my opinion when taking into account all of the above information, everything does indeed point to the "over" as the correct call in this one!

My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the over Bills/Cowboys.

This is a big game for both teams. Buffalo has been riding its red hot defensive play all year, as the Bills concede just 288.6 YPG, behind only the 49ers and Patriots. But of late it's been the more confident play of QB Josh Allen which has stuck out to me; Allen now has 2,360 yards passing with 15 TD's and eight INT's. 

Dallas is coming off a heart-breaking loss to the Patriots and at 6-5, this has essentially become a must win game. The Cowboys clearly can't sit back and hope that Buffalo makes the first mistake. 

I absolutely think this one sets up as a high-scoring game, rather than a defensive war.

Key Trends:

- Dallas has seen the total go over in ten of its last 15 as a favorite.

- The Cowboys have seen the total soar over in interestingly six of their last seven after a loss by six points or less.

The verdict: I think Rosen can match pace with Dak Prescott and the home side this afternoon. In what I expect to be a faster-paced game, I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later!

My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the UNDER Ravens/Rams.

The Ravens are in the midst of a five-game win streak and they come to the West Coast with an 8-2 record. A prime-time game on the West Coast after such an extended run of stellar play could be viewed by some as a classic "trap" game. 

The Rams have won three of their last five, most recently holding on for a 17-7 win over the Bears. Clearly the last thing these Rams can do is get into a "shootout" with Lamar Jackson and company. With the home side trying to limit mistakes and control the ball on offense, all signs point to a lower-scoring under in my opinion. 

Key Trends:

- Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in interestingly ten of its last 14 after allowing 14 points or less in its previous contest.

- LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of four at home already this season.

The verdict: I expect a hard-fought, lower-scoring UNDER once it's all said and done!

My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the OVER Colts/Texans.

I expect a shootout. The Colts are coming off a convincing win at home over the Jaguars and they have Jacoby Brissett back under center. True RB Marlon Mack is out, but fortunately the Colts still have capable RB's in Nyheim Hines, Jordan Wilkins, and Jonathan Williams. Indianapolis' defense has been stout of late, but I think the unit will definitely get tested here on the short week and vs. a Texans team which was embarrassed 41-7 last week by Baltimore.

Yes Houston hasn't looked the same since losing JJ Watt to injury, but this has essentially become a "must win" for DeShaun Watson and company. The Texans also play with "in season revenge" after falling by 7 in Indy earlier in the campaign. 

Key Trends:

- The Colts have seen the total go over in three of their last four after a home win by ten or more points.

- The Texans have seen the total soar over in eight of their last ten vs. clubs with winning records.

The verdict: Both teams are 6-4. To say this is a crucial matchup would be an understatement. I think the offenses "steal the show" on Thursday night; play the over!

My 10* TOTAL U OF THE U is on the OVER Bills/Dolphins.

Miami has won two in a row and it'll now look to build and to try and give the Bills a second straight loss in a row. For Buffalo, it's blazing start to the season is going to be in the rear view mirror if it can't start putting some production on the board. When these teams met earlier in the year though, it was Buffalo that laid the hammer down in the 31-21 victory and I believe a similar final combined score is on deck here as well. 

Key Trends:

- The Bills have seen the total go over the number in six of their last eight after a loss by six points or less.

- The Fish have seen the total soar over in nine of their last 12 as a home dog.

The verdict: Buffalo's pissed about its last second loss in Cleveland last weekend and knows it has to get out and push the pace here. The Dolphins are riding high after a two-game win streak and Ryan Fitzpatrick and company won't be backing down either. This one could go OVER by half time!

My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is on the OVER Vikes/Boys.

I think this is a great "situational spot bet" on the total. These two teams absolutely dominate in stopping the run, so as such I'm fully expecting this to be a "shootout" at the OK Corral on Sunday night! The Vikes enter off a 26-23 loss to Kansas City and they can't afford to take the foot off the gas obviously. Minnesota QB Kirk Cousins was a bright spot in defeat, going for three TD's and 222 passing yards. The Cowboys are rolling right now though and there's no reason not to think that they can't keep the momentum trending in that direction. In last week's 37-18 win over the Giants, Dallas' QB Dak Prescott had three TD's. 

Key Trends:

- Minnesota has seen the total go over the number in its last two after two or more straight losses vs. the spread.

- Dallas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 12 home games as the favorite.

The verdict: With each offense focussed on airing it out, I do indeed expect this one to fly over sooner, rather than later!

My 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the OVER Cowboys/Giants.

The Giants are 2-6, but Daniel Jones and the home side won't be rolling over this weekend after falling 31-26 to the Lions in their last game. Dallas destroyed the Eagles 37-10 in Week 7 and they've had their bye week off to prepare for this matchup. 

Key Trends:

- The Giants have allowed 121 points so far this year.

- Dallas has seen the total go over in its last two following its bye week.

The verdict: In Week 1 the Cowboys crushed New York 35-17. Look for the home side to play with pride and to make Dallas work for this "W." When you take into account all of the above factors, I'm playing the over!

My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the UNDER Lions/Raiders.

Oakland is 3-4 and it's lost two straight. Oakland catches a break here though this weekend facing this "on again, off again" Lions offense. Detroit broke a three-game slide with a 31-26 win over the Giants. The Lions defense has been shaky the last few weeks as well, but the unit also catches a break facing this Raiders' offense which averages just 21 PPG (the Lions average 25.7). 

Key Trends:

- Detroit has seen the total go under in its last two after playing a two-game home stand.

- Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of its last 11 when the total is greater than or equal to 49.5.

The verdict: The conditions, the situation and the trends/numbers are all point to the "under" as the correct call here in my opinion!

My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under 49ers/Cards.

Arizona enters off a tough loss against the Saints and it's now 3-4. San Francisco is 7-0 and it'll be trying to not get caught looking past the Cards to its big matchup vs. the Seahawks next weekend. Arizona had won three straight until last week's setback. Cards' rookie Kyler Murray though is going to now face the NFC's top defensive unit on a short week and I believe he'll struggle. The 49ers have been blowing teams out this year, but I also think that the short amount of time to prepare will be detrimental to the visitors offense as well. 

Key Trends:

- San Fran has seen the total go under in ten of its last 15 after playing a game at home (including in both such instances this year.)

- Arizona has seen the total dip under in 19 of its last 30 vs. the conference.

The verdict: Look for this divisional battle to fall well below the posted number once it's all said and done!

My 10* TOTAL U OF THE U is on the OVER Browns/Pats.

This is a big game for the Browns. Not so much for the undefeated defending champs. The Patriots love beating up on the Browns whenever they can, but Cleveland is in dire need of a victory and it enters off its bye week. I simply can't see the Browns sitting back and looking for the Pats to make the first mistake. Cleveland has to be aggressive from start to finish in this one if it has any hopes of pulling of an upset. Both teams sport awesome defenses, but the overall situation in my opinion points more to a "shootout," than a "chess match." 

Key Trends:

- The Browns have seen the total eclipse the posted number in their last three after having lost three of their last four games.

- The Patriots have seen the total go over the number in six of their last nine as a home favorite in the 7.5 to 14 points range. 

The verdict: Taking into account the situational and trend based factors above, I'm definitely on the over in this one!

My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Skins/Vikings.

Washington isn't going to be playing in the postseason after its terrible start. It's looked better since firing Jay Gruden though, earning a win over the hapless Dolphins, before then going down to the wire in an extremely defensive affair, but eventual loss to the 49ers last weekend. On the short week, I think it'll be the Redskins' defensive unit which is once again the main story line for Washington this week (note that the Skins will be extra motivated defensively as well here facing ex teammate Kirk Cousins.) The Vikes are surging and should have no problem controlling this contest in all facets. And with upcoming tough road games in at KC and Dallas, there's no reason to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish either. 

Key Trends:

- Washington has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 18 following a loss.

- Minnesota has seen the total dip under in three of its last four after scoring 30 points or more in its last game.

The verdict: This one has defensive battle written all over it; play the under!

My 10* TOTAL CLASH OF THE TITANS is the under Eagles/Cowboys.

They say defense wins championships. These teams are both filled with plenty of offensive talent, but it's going to be the one which gets the job done defensively today that wins this one in my opinion. It could not get any bigger for these 3-3 divisional foes. Neither will want to make a mistake here and I expect each to "control" the ball while on offense. 

Key Trends:

- Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in its last three road games when the total is greater than or equal to 49.

- Dallas has seen the total dip under the number in six of its last eight off a non-conference contest.

The verdict: This one has defensive, low-scoring battle written all over it; play the under!

My 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT is on the under Chiefs/Broncos.

Kansas City has dropped back to back home games, suddenly looking poor on both sides of the ball. The defense has been especially atrocious, but the unit catches a break here facing Joe Flacco and the Broncos' run first offense. Flacco has been better of Denver's last two games (both Broncos wins after starting the year 0-3), but it's been the Denver defense which has been the reason for the big turnaround. Mahomes is dealing with an injured ankle right now and he's getting little support from his run game, which is averaging only 87 YPG. KC has to establish the run in the thin air of Denver tonight to alleviate the pressure of Mahomes as well. This one has lower-scoring "under" written all over it in my opinion. 

Key Trends:

- The Chiefs have seen the total dip under the number in six of their last seven after having lost two of their last three games.

- The Broncos have seen the total dip under in three of their last four home games as an underdog of three points or less.

The verdict: On the short week, I believe the defenses become the main story line in tomorrow's summaries; play the under!

My 10* TOTAL MASSACRE is on the under Lions/Packers.

Detroit is 2-1-1 and it's been its lights out defensive play which has been the difference for it so far this year. Lions' QB Matt Stafford and the offense has been acceptable, but clearly it's been Detroit's defense which has been the difference maker for the team in the early going. The Lions have already faced some eltie QB's this year, including Philip Rivers, Carson Wentz and Patrick Mahomes and they've for the most part shut down all three (including holding Mahomes to no TD's.) Green Bay's offense has been decent as well, but it's been the Packers' defense which has "stolen the show" as well this season. 

Key Trends:

- WR Davantae Adams is out for the Packers.

- Detroit has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight after allowing 30 points or more in its last game.

The verdict: I look for these top rated defenses to take over this one; this number is high, play the under!

My 10* TOTAL BIG TIGER is on the UNDER Saints/Jags.

This is a big contest and I believe it'll be the defensive units which become the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. Teddy Bridgewater has done a great job filling in for Drew Brees, winning three straight, but I think he'll have his hands full here in this difficult road venue. Garnder Minshew has also filled in admirably in a backups role for the Jags, winning two of his first four starts. 

Key Trends:

- The Saints average and concede 23 PPG.

- The Jags average 22 points and they allow 23.

The verdict: I can't see the home side wanting to turn this one into a "shootout" with the high-flying Saints. Instead, I look for the home side to try and control this one and limit mistakes while on offense. This one has low-scoring "under" written all over it!

My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the OVER Giant's Patriots.

The Patriots' defense leads the league in almost every statistical category, but New England has yet to face a top tier offensive unit yet. And once again, it won't have to on Thursday night either, as New York comes to town off a listless 28-10 home loss to Minnesota. New York QB Daniel Jones has 760 yards passing with four TD's and three INT's. Jones and company had won two straight previous to that and clearly the rookie will be given the "green light" to try and pull off the upset today. The Giants defense has been decent to this point, but clearly this is a difficult task matching up against Tom Brady in peak form and on his own field. 

Key Trends:

- New York has seen the total go over the number in seven of its last ten after scroing 14 points or less in its previous game.

- New England has seen the total soar over in interestingly three of its last four off a road blowout win by 21 points or more.

The verdict: So far the Pats have seen the O/U go 1-4 this year. The Giants have seen the O/U go 2-3, but with both "overs" occurring on the road. With nothing to lose, I believe the visitors push the pace from start to finish; play the over!

My 10* TOTAL ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE is on the OVER Browns/49ers

Cleveland started off the year with a blowout loss at home to the Titans. The Browns offense was out of sync and it had to play from behind the whole game. They also committed well over 100 yards in penalties. Last week Baker Mayfield and company destroyed the Ravens 40-25 though and now the Browns' offense is starting to fire on all cylinders. RB Nick Chubb had three rushing TD's and Mayfield had over 350 yards passing. The 49ers enter at 3-0 after having last week off. Previous to that they destroyed the Steelers at home. Jimmy Garoppolo and the San Fran offense is also firing on all cylinders. From a situational stand point, I do absolutely believe that this one sets up as a high-scoring "shootout." 

Key Trends:

- Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off an upset win as an underdog.

- San Francisco has seen the total soar over in four of its last five as a home favorite of seven points or less.

The verdict: I do expect these two young QB's to push the pace from start to finish. This is a big game for both teams and I'm expecting a classic "shootout" on PRIME TIME!

My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Pats/Skins.

Yes New England has the best defense in the league. Statistically speaking anyways. The Patriots haven’t been truly tested by a great offense yet this year though and once again they won’t be this weekend either. That said, the 0-4 Redskins have nothing to lose here and will be given the green light to open up the offense from start to finish. This will of course give ample opportunity for this talented and opportunistic Pats’ defense to score as well. Washington has been poor on both sides of the ball this year, but especially defensively. Note that the Redskins’ defense ranks last in the NFL in third-down conversion prevention. Also note that Washington’s best player Josh Norman is questionable for this one. 

Key Trends:

- NE has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after allowing 14 points or less in two straight games.

- Washington has seen the total go over the number in four of its last five after failing to cover the spread in three out of its last four games.

The verdict: Colt McCoy broke his leg on the first play of the National Championship game while he was in College. The Texas alum will be looking to break a leg here as well as he tries to pull of the monumental upset. Tom Brady continues to shine for the Patriots and I expect the veteran to take full advantage of this suspect Skins’ secondary. When you add it all up, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it; play the over!

My 10* play is on the over Vikes/Bears.

Two hungry division rivals collide on Saturday afternoon and I think that points are going to be plentiful. Chicago is 2-1 and the Vikes are 1-2. Both division rivals are equally as “hungry” for a victory here and I think it’s that sense of enormous focus and competition which will ultimately help in pushing this total above this very low number. 

Key Trends:

- Minnesota is averaging 193.7 rushing yards per game, which is second in the league. 

- Chicago’s offense finally got untracked last week in the 31-15 road victory in the nation’s capital.

The verdict: I think the Bears’ offense continues to progress and I believe the Vikes are going to be forced to match the pace of the home side tonight. This one has “shootout” written all over it in my opinion; play the over!

My 10* NFL TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the over Eagles/Packers.

So far every Thursday night NFL game has fallen well below the posted number. That includes on Opening Night as well when the Packers played. But I believe that trend finally changes this week, as I believe the desperate 1-2 Philadelphia Eagles will be out to push the pace from start to finish. Yes Green Bay’s defense has been fantastic to this point (allowing just 11.7 PPG thus far) and yes the Eagles have injuries on the offensive side of the ball, but I still don’t think that’s going to matter. Philadelphia’s season is on the line tonight and I expect Carson Wentz to open things up early and often. Of course, Green Bay has also looked fantastic on the offensive side of the ball this year and I think it’s balanced attack is going to run roughshod over this suspect Eagles’ defense. 

Key Trends:

- Philly has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six road game when the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. 

- Green Bay has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off a home victory by ten points or more.

The verdict: Green Bay is desperate to move to 4-0 and the Eagles are desperate to avoid a 1-3 hole. This one has “shootout” written all over it!

My 10* play is on the OVER Broncos/Packers.

From a situational stand point, I think this one sets up beautifully as a higher-scoring “shootout.” Denver is 0-2 and it’s defense has looked suspect. The offense has struggled as well. Joe Flacco and company won’t be holding anything back here though as they try to salvage their season and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole to open the season (no team in NFL history has won the Super Bowl after starting 0-3.) Green Bay has looked impressive on the defensive side of the ball during its 2-0 start, but I think the unit gets tested today by this now desperate Broncos team. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers and company appear to be firing on all cylinders offensively early as well. As stated off the top, from a situational stand point, this one has high-scoring shootout written all over it.

Key Trends:

- Denver has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after scoring 14 points or less in its last game.

- GB has seen the total soar over in its last four home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range.

The verdict: Expect a wide open affair from start to finish in this one; play the over!

Ricky’s 10* play on the under Browns/Jets.

Cleveland played terribly in Week 1. It’s first drive of the game looked brilliant, but then a penalty cost it a TD and the Browns settled for the FG to open things up. And after that it was all downhill, as several penalties resulted in 187 yards lost. At that point, Baker Mayfield and company were forced to play from behind and the dynamic back threw three picks. I don’t think that the Titans offense is as good as it looked in Week 1 and I don’t think that the Browns defense is as bad as it looked either. What we do know is that the Jets blew a 16 point lead late to the Bills and lost in Week 1. They also lost starting QB Sam Darnold to mono. These are two teams looking to limit mistakes and control the tempo. From a situational stand point, I absolutely believe that this one sets up as a lower-scoring battle. 

Key Trends:

- Cleveland has seen the total go under in its last four after allowing 35 points or more in its previous outing.

- New York has seen the total go under in its last two off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite.

The verdict: For all the reasons listed above, I expect this one to stay well below the posted number; play the under!

Ricky’s 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Falcons/Vikings.

It’s a big game for both teams right out of the gate. Minnesota has a 19-11 all time lead in this series, which includes back-to-back victories, including 14-9 win in 2017. Both teams took big steps backwards last year, but each has big expectations heading into this season. While the offense stalled for Minnesota last year, the Vikings return ten starters on the defensive side of the ball to a unit which is once again expected to be one of the bed tin the league. Atlanta was plagued by injury last year. The Falcons’ offense isn’t in question ever with Matt Ryan running the show, but Atlanta’s success in 2019/20 will once again be decided on what its defense is capable of doing. 

Key Trends:

- Atlanta has seen the total go under in 11 of its last 16 on the road.

- Minnesota has seen the total go under in nine of its last 12 as a home favorite.

The verdict: I can’t see the Vikes turning this into a “shootout” with Ryan and company, so I believe we’ll see a much more methodical pace from the home side. When you add up all of the above factors I believe that the under is definitely the correct call!

Ricky's 10* play on the “under” in the Super Bowl.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Underrated defensive units. With so much offensive fire-power, it’s easy to forget how well each team played defensively down the stretch in the playoffs. The Pats enter off a 37-31 win over KC, holding Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes to just 16 of 31 and sacking him four times. The Rams were forced by the Saints for 45 points in the first meeting between the clubs, but last week LA looked great defensively in its eventual 26-23 OT victory.

Key Trends:

- New England has seen the total go under the number in 11 of 17 as a favorite this year.

- LA has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four off an upset win as a road dog.

The verdict: Look for the two week lay off to benefit the defensive units and play the under in the Super Bowl!

Ricky's 10* play on the under Rams/Saints.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Improved defensive play from each team. The Rams beat a dangerous Cowboys team 30-22 last week. I’d argue that the LA defense “stole the show” in that one though. The Saints overcame a 14 point hole in the first quarter to edge past the Eagles last weekend. Drew Brees had 301 yards and two TD’s, but after the slow start, it was the Saints’ defense which “brought that one home” for the home side. The Rams will be committed to the run offensively after posting 273 rushing yards in last week’s win. Known for the high-flying offensive play in the regular season, this one has

Key Trends:

- LA has seen the total go under the number in six of eight on the road already this year.

- The Rams have seen the total dip under the number in four of their last five in revenging a loss vs. an opponent of 28 or more points (lost in Week 9 to the Saints.)

- New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 as the favorite this year.

- The Saints have seen the total go under in four of five already this year after allowing 14 points or less last game.

The verdict: While the first matchup between these clubs flew over, this one has all the makings of a lower-scoring defensive battle this time around. Play the under!

Ricky's 10* play on the under Chargers/Ravens.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Ravens game-plan. With Melvin Gordon III injured for LA (if he does suit up, clearly he won’t be at 100% form), LA’s offensive game-plan becomes one-dimensional. The Ravens were among the league leaders in most defensive categories. They record a sack about once every eight plays and also have the fifth best opponents’ passer rating at 73.15. Baltimore also has as many INT’s as TD passes allowed (6). Baltimore will be looking to “manage” the game with LaMar Jackson while on offense, so as to limit Philip Rivers tie on the field of play. 

Key Trends:

- LA has seen the total go under in ten of its last 12 following a road victory.

- Baltimore has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 11 following a divisional contest.

The verdict: The situation and numbers point to the under as the correct call!

Ricky's 10* play on the over Cowboys/Giants.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Manning’s last hurrah? If this is Eli Manning’s final game as QB for New York, he’s going to want to put on a show for the home side fans. Manning is also out to avenge a 20-13 road loss to Dallas in Week 2. With the Cowboys expected to rest most of their starters with nothing to win or lose here, I’m expecting the legendary New York pivot to air it out early and often.

Key Trends:

- New York has seen the total go over in both games already this year in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent.

- The Giants have seen the total go over in five of their last seven as a home favorite.

The verdict: The situation and trends are pointing to a shootout. Play the over.

Ricky's 10* play on the over Dolphins/Vikings.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Desperation. Both teams still have a shot at their respective Wild Card spots. It’s now or never as neither can take the foot off the gas at this point. I expect each to push the pace and this becomes my “key angle” for this contest.

Key Trends:

- Miami has seen the total go over in nine of 14 off a division game.

- The Dolphins have seen the total go over in four of their last five off an upset win as a home underdog.

- Minnesota has seen the total go over in three of its last four after a loss by 14 points or more.

The verdict: Miami comes in off a thrilling last second win over the Patriots and I expect that offensive momentum to get carried over here. Play the over.

Ricky's 10* play on the under.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Game significance. Both teams currently hold the NFC wild card spot and each will be desperate for a victory here to hold onto that position. On the short week, this one has the feel of a classic lower-scoring “chess match” on Thursday night.

Key Trends:

- Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in 10 of its last 15 as an underdog.

- Seattle has seen the total go under the number in 15 of its last 25 as a favorite.

The verdict: Take the under.

Ricky's 10* play on the under.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- Common sense and recent history. These teams struggle with offensive consistency most weeks. Last week Jacksonville beat the Colts 6-0, while the Titans rallied for a 26-22 win over the Jets. When these teams played in Jacksonville earlier in the year, the Titans scored the low-scoring 9-6 victory. Expect these strong under trends to continue on the short week and on the National stage. 

Key Trends:

- Jacksonville has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range.

- Tennessee has seen the total go dip under the number in all four games that it’s played in this year, after playing a home game. 

The verdict: Everything points to another battle. Play the under.

Ricky's 10* play on the over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- It’s “do or die.” Motivation is the “key angle” for this play. An important divisional match-up sees both teams desperate for a win to keep its small playoff hopes alive. This one has “shootout” written all over it.

Key Trends:

- Washington has seen the total go over the number in 17 of its last 27 when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points.

- Philadelphia has seen the the total go over the number in ten of its last 15 vs. the division.

- The Eagles have seen the total go over in nine of their last 15 following a home victory.

The verdict: Play the over.

Ricky's 10* play on the under Chargers/Steelers.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. 

- It’s a big game for both teams, with playoff positioning on the line. I believe the overall situation lends itself to a lower-scoring defensive battle and it’s my “key angle” for this selection.

Key Trends:

- LA has seen the total go under in ten of its last 11 after having won four or five out of its last six games.

- The Chargers have seen the total go under in seven of their last eight after a win by 14 points or more.

- The Steelers have seen the total go under in nine of their last 14 vs. teams with winning records.

The verdict: Play the under.

Ricky's 10* play on the over.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant.

Key Trends:

- KC has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last 11 non-conference road games as an underdog in the 2.5 to 5.5 points range.

- The Rams have seen the total go “over” in 15 of their last 25 non-conference home games as a favorite in the 2.5 to 5.5 points range.

The verdict: These teams feature the two most explosive offenses from their respective conferences and neither can play a lick of defense. Play the over.

Ricky’s 10* play on the under.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant.

Key Trends:

- Minnesota has seen the total go under in nine of its last 13 as an underdog.

- The Vikings have seen the total go under in eight of their last 12 following a divisional contest.

- The Bears have seen the total go under in 12 of their last 20 at home. 

The verdict: This is an important game for both teams and the numbers and the overall situation point to the under as the correct move.

Ricky's 10* play on the under.

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the history between these two teams is particularly significant.

Key Trends:

- Tampa Bay has seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 15 following two or more SU losses.

- New York has seen the total go under in eight of its last 13 vs. teams with losing records.

- The Giants have seen the total go under in 13 of their last 20 at home.

The verdict: Take the under.

Ricky's 8* play on the Over 52:

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Vikings defense is particularly significant. The Vikes ranked 2nd in the NFL versus the pass last year, and they rank 21st in the league coming into tonight's game versus the Saints.

Key Trends:

- The Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.

- The Over is 5-0 in Vikings last 5 versus a team with a winning record.

- The Over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings in Minnesota.

Verdict: Take OVER

Ricky's 10* play on the Over:

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the Seahawks defense is particularly significant.

Key Trends:

- The Over is 7-3 in Rams last 10 games overall.

- The Over is 7-2 in Rams last 9 road games.

- The Over is 6-1 in Rams last 7 games following a straight up win.

Verdict: Take Over

Ricky's 10* play on the Under 53.5:

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. In today's game there is no doubt that the inflated line is particularly significant.

Key Trends:

- The Under is 9-3 in Buccaneers last 12 home games.

- The Under is 23-7 in Steelers last 30 road games.

- The Under is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games following a straight up loss.

Verdict: Take Under

Between their games vs Bills and Steelers, no one believed in the Jaguars. They were a better team than the Steelers in terms of efficiency and showed up big time at Pittsburgh. Now everyone believes in them again and Jalen Ramsey is already talking about the Super Bowl. It’s fascinating how the perception changes and the Jaguars are a prime example because their variance over the season has been extremely high. We saw a total of 97 points last Sunday but I am expecting a completely different game this time at Foxboro. A low scoring game.

The Patriots defense got shredded the first six games, allowing 400+ yards in each of those. Since week 7, they allowed 400+ yards just once, at Pittsburgh. Bill Belichick and Matt Patricia did a great job adjusting their defense towards playing highly efficient. The Patriots defense ranks #1 in yards per point – they find ways to not lot opponents score. Since the game against the Panthers, they have given up 20+ points just twice in 13 games. Belichick knows how to attack opposing weaknesses and rob strengths. He will stack the box, play a lot of QB contain and will likely show a lot of cover 1 looks with man coverage. He will force Bortles to straight up beat them with his accuracy and I highly doubt that Bortles will be able to do that. He is at his best when playing off play-action behind an efficient run game and the Pats will try their best to shut down the run game. They held Derrick Henry to 2.3 yards per carry last week which made Mariota force a lot of throws. I don’t see the Jaguars offense scoring 20+ in this one, I see more field goals than touchdowns.

The most interesting part is the flip side – Pats offense vs Jaguars defense. The Jaguars are at their best when they are lined up vs 3+ WR's. Teams like the Niners or Titans played a lot of 12 / 21 / 22 personnel against the Jaguars and were highly successful. The Patriots will know that. They won’t attack Bouye and Ramsey on the outside. They also don’t have WR's like Martavis Bryant or Antonio Brown who make great adjustments towards the catch point. I expect the Pats to look to run it up the gut and come out in a lot of 12 or 21 personnel with 2 WR's lining up outside and tie up Ramsey and Bouye. Then they are going to use a lot of pre-snap motions to identify coverages and find their matchups in the short passing game via Gronk, Burkhead, Lewis and White. Stretch the field, send Gronk down the seam and pick your matchups. With runs and short passes, the Pats are likely to control / eat the clock which is a huge bonus for a low scoring game. At the end it’s still the Jaguars defense with tremendous front-four pressure against an average offensive line so it’s not that I expect the Pats to score every drive. The Jaguars will make stops. But I also don’t see them going high-pace on offense. I really expect a low scoring affair with the Pats coaching staff dominating the matchup and Blake Bortles. It’s not that I do not see any chance of an upset, because the Jags have been a highly efficient team over the course of the season (equally efficient to the Pats). I think Pats at home should get it done in a low scoring affair.

Under 46.5

*Update* Brady's injured finger boasts well for this pick.

Pats at home in the divisional round is usually a no-brainer: since their last loss vs the Jets in 2011, they went 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS in that round. But this game is interesting because we don’t know which offense is gonna show up from Tennessee, Mularkey's or Mariota's. There were rumours that Mariota started calling the plays by his own since the 2nd quarter at Kansas City. The No-huddle up-tempo offense from shotgun is perfectly suited for Mariota, but Mularkey desperately wants to rely on his ground-and-pound approach. He wants to run the ball on 1st and 2nd down with DeMarco Murray and let Mariota make a precise pass on 3rd down from a tight formation. It’s not a surprise that Mariota has four game-winning drives this season because on game-winning drives he is put into an up-tempo offense from shotgun and can dictate the offense by himself. He is a very good pocket passer and showed that at Kansas City in “his” offense. I also believe that Derrick Henry is a better and more efficient runner than DeMarco Murray. The Mariota-offense is definitely capable of putting up points at New England, the Mularkey offense will be out coached from start to finish.

New England has a highly efficient defense by yards per point – they somehow avoid being scored on. The Patriots’ front seven isn’t great and they are lacking speed. I think the Titans’ offensive line has a very solid matchup and a few Mariota runs could absolutely take care for some damage and first downs.The Chiefs offense showed a great gameplan in the first half against the Titans as they tried to avoid that good run defense (4th in YPC, 7th in DVOA) and moved the ball through the air. KC receivers had a few costly drops, otherwise they would have scored a TD more. The Patriots are going to do the same: pass the ball, avoid the opponent’s strength. They will pick their matchups and the zone blitz scheme by Dick LeBeau is generally something Tom Brady highly prefers to play against. I don’t think the Pats will have any troubles moving the ball through the air because there isn’t anything the Titans can throw at Brady IMO. If the Titans play Mariota-ball, they can be competitive in that game, but if they wake up too late, it could be over too soon. Patriots also don’t want to be the Chiefs all over again and they know that it’s hard to run the clock down vs the Titans so I expect them to look to score early and often.

I think this game could end up in the 50's, because the Pats are capable to score 30+ and the Titans have a solid matchup as soon as they play Mariota ball and they should get garbage time opportunities in no-huddle mode if they lose in the fourth quarter.

Over 47

The Falcons defense has been the key as they played the run pretty aggressively and played tight against those Rams WR's. A couple of special teams turnovers helped for field position. I am expecting a close game at Philly in the divisional round. The Eagles obviously aren’t the same without Carson Wentz. Wentz is able to avoid 2-3 sacks/throwaways per game because of his crazy ability of scrambling away from pressure. I don’t think that offense is lost, but Foles is a downgrade from Wentz. With the way the Falcons are playing on defense right now, it’s tough for me to see the Eagles moving the ball efficiently. They must try to take pressure off Foles. They have to try to not win the game with him, but the rest has to work to let Foles deal with the last 20%. I trust Doug Pederson to put together a competitive offensive gameplan, but with Nick Foles, he will be somehow limited.

On offense, Atlanta will have a big advantage against the Eagles secondary because their cornerbacks are the weak spot and Julio Jones should feast on them. Eagles have a stout defense with a great defensive line and they rank 7th in pass DVOA / 3rd in run DVOA, so we shouldn’t expect the Falcons to move the ball easily on the ground to grind it out like at Los Angeles. All season, the Falcons had their issues in key situations like red zone, as they only convert 50% of their trips into touchdowns for rank 23rd. I think both teams will struggle to score many points. If the Eagles play tough on defense, get the home crowd going and take pressure off of Foles by getting their running game going, they will be in a very good position to succeed, however the value lies on the total.

Under 41.5

*Top Total of the Week*

The Jets are probably the worst road team in 2017. They are 1-5 SU away from home, getting outscored 14.5 – 24.8. Their lone win was at Cleveland in a game the Browns out gained them by around 200 yards and committed three turnovers inside the 5. Last week at Denver they were shut 0-23. And now with Josh McCown landing on the IR, the Jets will start Bryce Petty at QB this week – let me tell you this as a Jets fan: he is awful. Small sample size, but over 142 career passes he has a completion percentage of 54%, 3 TD, 7 INT and 5.8 YPA.

The Jets aren’t going to move the ball at New Orleans, because the Saints won’t respect the pass and can stack the box heavily with Lattimore locking down Anderson or Kearse. The Saints’ offensive philosophy is to get a lead and sit on it by running down the clock and rest the arm of Drew Brees. As they are already preparing for the Falcons game next week which seems to be their personal Super Bowl, they won’t be interested in running up the score against the Jets. They will jump a lead and hand it off to Kamara/Ingram in the second half. Sustain drives as much as possible, keep a slow pace to keep offense and defense as fresh as possible. If you ask Sean Payton, he would sign a 10-7 win without injuries right now.

I am seeing this game being played out similar to the Bucs/Saints game when the Bucs weren’t able to score and the Saints just took shots when given opportunities.

Under 47

While the Chargers come off a 50-pt outing and the Cowboys got blown out by their divisional rival, the perception favours the Chargers and I agree with it.

Zeke and Tyron Smith are the two most important offensive players along with Dak Prescott. Sean Lee is the most important defensive player. Missing those three would probably kill most teams in the league outside of Boston. I think Prescott still played as good as he possibly could, but the offense was simply over-matched by a good Eagles defense. We have two interesting coaching angles going for this game. Jason Garrett is the worst short-rest coach in the league at 2-14 ATS, while Anthony Lynn is a rookie head coach on a short week who comes off a big emotional win against his former team who didn’t want to have him as their head coach.

While I cannot make many cases for the Cowboys as a side, I am making one for the total. The latter is simply too high. I expected it to be in the 44-45 range. I am struggling to see any of these teams scoring significantly north of 20. I expect the Chargers to come out a little bit flat after that huge win and Lynn not being capable of putting together a good offensive gameplan on a short week. Before playing against one of the current-worst defenses with a lot of short fields, they averaged 17.9 offensive PPG. DeMarcus Lawrence will be all over anyone who lines up at RT this week, forcing some throw aways by Rivers. I also believe that both teams are trying to attack the opposing defense on the ground which is gonna eat the clock. I think the Chargers’ ceiling in this game is in the low 20s.

On the flip side, this Los Angeles defense is really good. Denzel Perryman being back helps that defense, but they are still vulnerable on the ground and that’s how the Cowboys are going to attack them, because their passing attack will be lost against this defense. In Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa, the Chargers are in “charge” of the Los Angeles “Nippers” which will be all over La’el Collins and Byron Bell in pass protection. The pass offense won’t work and I think their ceiling is in the high 10s, around 17 to 20.

23-17, 20-16 likely scores. I am seeing a low scoring affair and that’s why I'm playing on the Under.

From a numbers standpoint, Browns were the right side last week, but they beat themselves again. 6 red zone trips and they managed to lose by 14 – wow. That coaching staff seems to be inept, that’s why I stop playing them even though I lean them again this week. 7.5 points are too many in a good matchup. I played the Under, as I believe it’s a much better option this week.

First of all, the weather forecast says it’s gonna be around 21 mph winds with as high as 25 mph. Games with 20+ mph of winds result in an average scoring total of 35. The weather condition that affects totals the most is wind, not rain or snow. In snow or rain, offenses aren’t forced to change their gameplan, because we pitches favor the offenses. It’s easier to change directions forwards than backwards or sidewards. Without wind, passes have the same velocity and trajectory in wet conditions as in dry conditions. Some coaches just think they need to run more in wet conditions. With wind it gets tricky and the magic number is 20mph. When you throw the ball in heavy winds, you cannot be as accurate as normal, because the force of the wind has such a high impact on the trajectory of the pass. A few inaccurate throws because of wind can kill drives. The first windy game of the year, CAR@TB, ended 17-3 and both QBs combined for 39/70 (55.7%) for 348 yds for 4.9 YPA when their season average is 61% and 62% completions and 6+ YPA. Last year’s game PIT@CLE was a wind game and ended 24-9. QBs combined for 44/77 343 yards, 4.5 YPA. With the Jaguars and Browns, we get a matchup that has a high probability of ending below 37.5 even without wind.

The Jaguars have a phenomenal defense and improved against the run with the addition off Marcell Dareus. The Jaguars have a run-first offense with a bad matchup against the best run defense in the league. Take away the run and the Jaguars offense will be completely limited this Sunday. But so will be the Browns defense also, because they won’t move the ball on the Jaguars, no way.

It wouldn’t surprise me if we didn’t see an offensive touchdown this week and the game ends somewhere around 17-12 with a defensive score. Loving the Under here.

Under 37.5

This is a matchup of two high-potential offenses with questionable defenses in a game with standard weather conditions. The Titans offense scores 24.9 PPG with Marcus Mariota as the starter which would rank 7th in the league (Matt Cassel started vs MIA). The Steelers defense ranks high by metrics and gives up only 15.2 PPG which ranks 2nd in the league. They seem to be much improved from last season, but they played an easy schedule and keep showing some big mistakes just like last week when corners blew their assignments in cover 2 and cover 3 on the long Colts touchdowns. Here are the offenses they have faced with their respective ranks in offensive scoring: Browns (29th), Vikings (6th) in their first game with Case Keenum, Bears (32nd), Ravens (27th), Jaguars (14th), Chiefs (5th), Bengals (30th), Lions (10th), Colts (24th). That’s not a tough schedule at all. Their defensive schedule ranks near last in the league in terms of strength. We can say they haven’t been tested a lot. This Titans offense is a tough challenge for this defense, especially since they give up 4.6 YPC (26th) on the 10th-toughest schedule. On an average schedule, the Steelers defense would probably give up around 17-20 PPG. The realistic ceiling for this Titans offense is 20-24 points at Pittsburgh.

The production of the Steelers offense has been underwhelming, their 19.9 offensive PPG are far below expectations. With the personnel, they should be a 27ish PPG offense. But there is the same schedule-issue for the offense : they played a really tough schedule. Fortunately, they get to play one of the worse defenses in the league. The Titans recently played the Browns in a game in which they changed the QBs twice, the Ravens and Bengals, all three are bottom-five offenses in 2017. That’s why the perception is a little bit too high on them I guess. The Titans defense played an easy schedule and they rank 20th in scoring defense, giving up 22 defensive PPG. They aren’t good in stopping the run and their secondary is the weakest part. Logan Ryan, Adoree Jackson and LeShaun Sims can’t really match up with the Steelers – Pittsburgh should move the ball on the Titans. The ceiling for the Steelers is 24+ points in my opinion.

I think if both teams run a lot without breakout runs and show red zone struggles, the score could stay below 44, but that scenario isn’t likely to me. I think the score should end atleast around 24-20 with potential for 35-24. This game should fly into the 50s. Over!

Over 44