20* Play on Cleveland (+1).

20* Play on Oakland (+3.5).

20* Play on Philadelphia (+2).

20* Play on Dallas (-5).

20* Play on Jacksonville (-4).

20* Play on Houston (+3).

20* Play on Kansas City (-3).

20* Play on Indianapolis (+1.5).

20* Play on Pittsburgh (-7).

20* Play on Washington (+2.5).

20* Play on Miami (+3.5).

20* Play on Jacksonville (+1).

20* Play on Arizona (-6.5).

20* Play on Pittsburgh (-7).

20* Play on Denver (-3).

20* Play on Pittsburgh (+6). We've been riding out the Steelers red hot run in the second half of the season (and the playoffs), including last week's outright win against Kansas City and we're not about to jump off their bandwagon now. Not sure if Pittsburgh will be able to pull the outright upset again this Sunday on the road at New England, but we give them a fighting chance to win this game and a very good chance of staying well within this generous number. Pats won in Pittsburgh by a comfortable 11-point margin in the lone in-season meeting between these teams, however, that came during the Steelers lone bad stretch. In fact, prior to that game, the Steelers had lost by 15 points at Miami - the same Dolphins team that Pittsburgh just beat by 18 points two weeks ago in the Wild Card round. Steelers offense is now being run properly with a heavy dose of the running game and passing out of play-action. Pats defense hasn't really been tested since their loss against the Seahawks, and with Pittsburgh being able to throw to their running back as Seattle did in that game, we believe Pittsburgh's offense will do just fine here - even being the visitor. Tom Brady and company will admittedly do some damage as well, but the loss of receiving weapons throughout the season should finally show it's worth against a worthy opponent in a playoff setting. We look for this game to come down to the wire with the Steelers having the chance of pulling the outright upset! 20* NFL "Watch Party" Play on Pittsburgh.

20* Play on Pittsburgh (+1.5). We've been on the Steelers bandwagon all season long and we're not about to jump off now. Pittsburgh is a very small underdog on the road this Sunday night (game was moved to a later start because of an ice storm hitting the area this weekend), and we expect them to win this game by a comfortable margin. We really do like this KC team this season, but the Steelers are the one team in the AFC that give them the most matchup problems. That was clearly evident in their early-season matchup - a game the Steelers won 43-14 and won every major statistical category we care about. Of course, those stats are a bit misleading as the Chiefs were taken out of their preferred game plan early, and finished that game with 50 pass attempts - their most this season. While underrated as a team, Kansas City's defense is actually overrated and they have had trouble stopping the run - allowing 100+ yards rushing in six of their last seven games overall. Pittsburgh has allowed just two teams to reach triple digits in rushing in their last eight games, and one of those came the final week against Cleveland when the Steelers rested starters and didn't care about the outcome. KC's passing game is much better than last year, but still only "average" this season when compared to the rest of the league and are nowhere close to the level of talent of Pittsburgh's passing attack. With Bell once again carrying the workload (and we expect much more use of him in the passing game than last week), Pittsburgh takes an early lead and holds on for the outright win. Not a blowout like last time, but still a comfortable margin of victory by the visitor! 20* AFC Game of the Month Play on Pittsburgh.

25* Play on Dallas (-5). Not sure the linesmakers understand how important Jordy Nelson is to this Packers team - especially on an offense that has all but given up on their running game and now relies solely on the pass. With Nelson, Green Bay would have had a hard time upsetting the Cowboys on the road, and without him we look for the Packers to lose big. Green Bay's late season resurgence was the combination of stellar play from Aaron Rogers and favorable on-field matchups. Packers have committed just one turnover total in their seven game winning streak which is remarkable considering defenses knew they were going to see a ton of passing. Dallas is much better equipped to deal with this type of offense, and the loss of Nelson means the other GB receivers (while still very talented) will have to adjust their roles. As good as Green Bay's offense has been, their defense remains a huge liability and have given up big yardage against teams not exactly knows for their aerial prowess. Cowboys running game hasn't been stopped yet this season and they put up nearly 200 yards on Green Bay the first time they met this season (Dallas won 30-16 on the road). Don't believe Packers will be able to slow the Cowboys running game down again this Sunday, and that will only lead to easier throws as the game progresses. Too many question marks for Green Bay's passing game now and with no running game to help, this one should end in a blowout! 25* NFL Playoffs Game of the Year Play on Dallas.

25* Play on Pittsburgh (-10.5). Linesmakers have set a trap having Pittsburgh as a double-digit favorite, as the books are begging for action on the big underdog. We're not biting, and we'll back the Steelers at home to win by a huge blowout margin and cover this spread with ease. Steelers have won seven games in a row to close the year, and while we don't put much stock into their regular season finale (an overtime win vs. Cleveland) when they rested starters, their overall approach to the second half of the regular season presents a number of matchup problems for the Dolphins this Sunday. Steelers held five of their last six foes (again, not counting the Cleveland game) to under 100 yards rushing while Miami's offense was held to under 100 yards rushing in six of their last seven games. Assuming those rushing trends hold (and we believe they will), that puts all the pressure on Miami's backup QB Matt Moore to carry the offense. On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh's offense finally went back to their strength - which is a dominant rushing game with Bell and then throwing off of play-action. Miami hasn't done a great job defending the pass, but they are even worse at stopping run allowing 100+ yards in seven straight games. Everything points to a Pittsburgh blowout on Sunday and we'll lay the points expecting a blowout win and cover! 25* NFL "King's Ransom" Play on Pittsburgh.

20* Play on Oakland (+4). Odd matchup to open the postseason as Oakland will send Connor Cook out as quarterback making his first career start, while Houston is forced to go back to Brock Osweiler behind center after benching him for poor performance a few weeks back. The combination of the Raiders starting their third-string QB and Oakland being the visitor has Houston listed as the favorite despite the Texans finishing the regular season with three fewer victories than Oakland, as well as a losing 3-4 record overall down the stretch. We like this price with Oakland and believe they have a great chance at winning this game outright. Cook played at Michigan State and led an NFL-style offense there, plus his arm is very good and we believe the linesmakers aren't giving him enough credit here. In fact, the linesmakers have been undervaluing the Raiders all season long, as Oakland has notched four outright wins in the underdog role - all of them on the road. Including their win and cover against this Houston team in Mexico, the Raiders are 7-2 against the spread away from home this season. Texans defense is good statistically, but if they plan on stacking the box and forcing Cook to beat them through the air then we think Houston will be in for a surprise. Texans scored just 17 ppg on the season - three points per game fewer than they allowed - and can't be counted on to come up with a big day offensively now that they start Osweiler who they basically showed they have no confidence in. Cook shines in his debut as Oakland wins this game outright! 20* NFL "Watch Party" Play on Oakland.

20* Play on Kansas City (-3.5). We backed the Chiefs the first time these teams met up, with Kansas City scoring an outright win as a three-point road underdog. KC didn't look good last week as they lost outright at home against a suspect Tennessee club, but that just means they are due for a nice bounce-back effort Sunday night. In fact, prior to their first Denver clash, the Chiefs lost outright at home against Tampa Bay by the identical 19-17 final score they suffered last week vs. the Titans! Chiefs had not been able to crack the Broncos when Denver had Peyton Manning at the helm, but with Denver struggling on offense KC is taking advantage. Broncos offense is mired in a bad slump scoring just 13 points combined in their last two games, and that lack of offensive production has started turmoil in the locker room. This is not the defense Denver wants to face in order to turn things around and build momentum, and while we have much respect for Denver's defense, we don't have any faith in their offense at this point - especially on the road. Chiefs won the first matchup on the road and they win by an even bigger margin tonight! 20* NFL Christmas Special Play on Kansas City.

20* Play on Oakland (-3.5). Colts are coming off their best game of the season by a mile - a stunning 34-6 upset on the road (as a five-point underdog) at Minnesota. That big win is giving us great line value this Saturday to fade them, and we'll look for the Raiders to keep their winning ways in tact in a lopsided victory at home in this matchup. Raiders had a six-game winning streak snapped at Kansas City two weeks ago, but then bounced back with a three-point win and cover last week at San Diego. Oakland's passing numbers have gone down in recent weeks, relying on their running game to rack up big yardage, but against a weak Colts secondary we expect Oakland's passing game to be the difference here. Colts defense has given up big yardage through the air and those numbers are worse than they appear on paper considering the competition the Colts have faced this season. Huge overreaction by the linesmakers based on last week's results, and we'll grab the line value with the far better team this Saturday! 20* NFL Christmas Eve Special Play on Oakland.

20* Play on New England (-3). Patriots have overcome the loss of quarterback Tom Brady for the first four games of the season and enter this weekend in the pole position for home field advantage throughout the playoffs. New England is currently one game better than both Oakland and Kansas City, and they put their perfect 6-0 road record (5-1 ATS) on the line this Sunday against another AFC West foe in Denver. This game doesn't have the appeal of past matchups with Peyton Manning now retired, but it is still a big game with playoff implications on both sides. We have much respect for the Denver defense, however, we have even more respect for New England's offense behind Brady and we expect the Pats to keep that perfect road mark in tact with another win and cover. New England is 8-1 with Brady behind center, scoring no less than 22 points in all nine of those games and putting up at least 30 points more times (5) than not (4). Again, we have much respect for Denver's defense, but their offense has been lackluster. Denver's recent 4-5 record since early October is alarming in the fact they haven't beat anybody good, and we can't trust them to play up to New England's level based on their play in the last two months. Broncos tend to struggle when they can't rush the ball (last week's 10-point effort in a loss against Tennessee is evidence of that) and they won't be able to run on the Pats this Sunday. New England's secondary can be beat, but in a matchup of passing games we'll side with Brady and the Pats every time. New England gets one step closer to home field advantage this Sunday! 20* AFC Game of the Month Play on New England.

20* Play on Green Bay (-5.5). The Packers blowout win against Seattle last week marked the first three-game winning streak of the season for Green Bay, and while Aaron Rogers has received the bulk of the credit for turning around the Packers fortunes this season, it's really the defense that has turned things around in that three-week span. Green Bay had allowed more than 30 points in each of the four games leading up to their current three-game winning streak, but have allowed just 13, 13, and 10 points in the three games since. Favorable matchup for the Packers defense this week as they take on a Chicago team that is a complete mess offensively, and we like the Packers to win this one by a wide margin. Detroit hung on for a three-point win against the Bears last week, but was unable to take advantage of a favorable matchup against a weak Bears secondary. Rodgers won't pass up this opportunity to air it out early and often and keep the momentum going. On the other side of the ball, Chicago has failed to reach 250 yards passing in six of their last seven games overall, and have numerous injuries to an offense that has been held to under 20 points on nine occasions this season. Packers beat the Bears 26-10 back when Green Bay wasn't playing well at all (in fact, that was their lone victory in the midst of a 1-5 slide), and we expect another easy double-digit win and cover this Sunday! 20* NFL "Blowout Demolition" Play on Green Bay.

25* Play on Pittsburgh (-3). While not as "certain" as death and taxes, the Pittsburgh Steelers winning in Cincinnati is pretty much the closest thing as a certainty as we can find in the NFL. In the last 26 years, Pittsburgh is 21-5 straight up and 19-6-1 against the spread in Cincinnati, and the Bengals are in trouble once again this Sunday as they face the Steelers right as they are peaking. We grade Pittsburgh as one of the current top four teams in the league despite their 8-5 record, and their play over the last four weeks justifies that high praise. Since Pittsburgh's offense returned to a rush-first mentality (and then passing off of play-action), they have been unbeatable, and last week's 240-yard rushing effort at Buffalo was the type of performance that will have confidence sky high on the Pittsburgh roster. Don't have faith in Cincy's ability to stop the run here after watching a bad Cleveland offense put up 169 yards on the ground last week, and while the Steelers rushed for 124 yards in the first matchup this season, that was one of the games where RB Bell was serving a suspension. Cincinnati stopped a four-game streak being held to under 100 yards rushing last week against a porous Browns defense, but we look for that trend to pick up again against this Steelers defense that has held nine foes to double-digits in rushing yards, including each of their last four. Steelers are in a "must-win" mentality after their slow start and won't overlook this game due to the Bengals record - no surprises here as the Steelers continue to build momentum towards the playoffs! 25* NFL Division Game of the Year Play on Pittsburgh.

20* Play on Miami (-2.5). Fantastic line value taking the Dolphins on Saturday night, and we are getting that line value thanks to Miami being the visitor as well as the Dolphins missing starting quarterback Ryan Tannehill. Dolphins have quietly been on a tear of late winning seven of their last eight games overall, (although many of those wins came against bad teams). We view the Jets as one of the worst teams in the entire league, and while we do believe Miami isn't as strong as their 8-5 record suggests, we also don't believe the Jets are as good as their 4-9 record suggests either. New York is 2-4 in their last six games with those two wins being a three-point win against winless Cleveland, and an overtime time win last week against 1-win San Francisco. Their passing game continues to be dreadful, and last week their 216-yard passing effort was the seventh time in their last eight games they failed to reach 225 yards through the air. More alarming for the Jets is their rush defense of late, as they gave up 387 yards on the ground the last two games against the Colts and 49ers, and that is where we believe the Dolphins will be able to to control this game. Neither side is going to do much damage through the air, but we do think the Dolphins can move the ball on the ground. Remember, this Jets team is horrible on their home field, going just 1-5 straight up and being outscored by an average of 7 ppg in those six home contests. Dolphins weren't going to throw the ball much even if Tannehill was playing, and the loss of the starting QB has a much bigger effect on the line than it does the outcome. 20* NFL Saturday Night Special Play on Miami.

25* Play on San Francisco (-3). We love this situation for the 49ers - a bad team that knows they have a rare opportunity for a straight up win, and the fact that San Francisco is favored makes us like this play even more. Linesmakers are begging for action on the underdog, listing the one-win team as the favorite, but we're not falling for the trap and we'll back San Francisco expecting one of their best efforts of the season this Sunday. Weather was a huge factor last week as the 49ers completed only five passes for six yards, but now back in California and against a weak Jets secondary we expect those numbers jump to levels above their season averages. 49ers running game is vastly underrated, as they have put up decent stats but have typically abandoned their running game in the fourth quarter when trying to make up a deficit on the scoreboard. Not necessary here, as we expect the 49ers to stick to their running game throughout and slowly but surely build a lead and protect it in the fourth quarter. Jets have scored just 33 points in their last three games combined and now travel across the country to take on an extremely motivated 49ers club. This one won't be pretty, but San Francisco grinds it out and picks up their season win of the season! 25* NFL "King's Ransom" Play on San Francisco.

20* Play on Pittsburgh (-3). Steelers have been perhaps are favorite "play on" team all season long, and after another easy win and cover with them last week against the Giants, we'll back them for the fourth week in a row this Sunday as a small road favorite at Buffalo. Great on-field matchup on both sides of the ball for the visitor here, with the Bills relying almost entirely on their running game offensively but face a very stout Pittsburgh rush defense. On the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh will be able to use RB Bell in both the running game and passing game with much success. After a four-game losing skid, the Steelers have reeled off three consecutive double-digit victories and it's no coincidence that winning streak began when the Steelers went back to their roots - running the ball more frequently and then passing off of play-action once that run has been established. Buffalo has been held to 170 yards passing or fewer in three straight games and simply don't have the type of passing game needed to keep up with Pittsburgh on the scoreboard. This line has already moved two points since the opening number, and we'll side with the public expecting yet another big Steelers victory! 20* NFL Blowout of the Month Play on Pittsburgh.

20* Play on Detroit (-7.5). Not many have noticed now well Detroit has been playing lately, winning four straight (including two outright victories as road underdogs) and seven of their last eight games overall. Great matchup at home against a horrible Chicago team this week and the Bears come into this weekend a complete mess on both sides of the ball. Bears passing game is a joke and missing key players both at the quarterback and receiver positions. Their running game is average, but face a Detroit team that is very tough to run on. That puts even more pressure on a bad passing team here. On the other side of the ball, Detroit doesn't run much but should find big holes in a bad Chicago secondary. Detroit is a big favorite for a good reason - they have big matchup advantages on both sides of the ball, and we expect the Lions to win this game going away! 20* NFC Game of the Month Play on Detroit.

20* Play on Washington (+2.5). Another team that can't get respect from the linesmakers is Washington, who has covered the spread in four straight games and eight of their last nine overall. Redskins lost on national television last week at Dallas on Thanksgiving, and perhaps that loss has the general public sour on this squad, but not us. Washington put up nearly 450 yards passing on the Cowboys and finished 152 total yards better than Dallas, and while the did lose that game outright they stayed close enough to cover a generous spot. Much easier task this week for Washington who not only will be playing with a few extra days of rest, but also against a much easier opponent. Not only does Arizona own a losing straight up record, but the Cardinals have 0-5 ATS in their last five games. Their defense has fallen apart ever since their boring 6-6 tie against Seattle, allowing 30, 20, 30, and 38 points in their last four. Cardinals have no home field edge going a perfect 0-6 ATS this season, and going back to last year they are a pathetic 1-10 against the spread when facing a team with a winning record. Cardinals very good at stopping the run, but Washington proved last week they don't need to run in order to move the ball. Dallas was able to put up the points but we don't believe Arizona will be able to match the Cowboys offensive production this week. Washington should win this game outright! 20* NFL "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Washington.

20* Play on Pittsburgh (-6). Steelers have been one of our favorite "play-on" teams this season, and we'll back them again this Sunday as they take on the streaking Giants. New York comes in riding a six-game winning streak, however, the list of teams on the schedule during that run is not very impressive. This Pittsburgh team is by far the toughest challenge the Giants will have faced in the last two months, and we expect a rejuvenated Pittsburgh team playing on their home field to win in a blowout. Pittsburgh was in the midst of a four-game slide a few weeks back, but a return to the running game has revitalized this offense in a pair of blowout wins and covers (both on the road) the last two weeks. Steelers are a notoriously good home team, and while we do expect the offense to put up big numbers again, it's their defensive matchup that really has us liking the Steelers this week. Giants finally got something going on the ground in their last few games after going five straight games failing to reach even 80 yards rushing. But again, those rushing numbers came against very weak competition. Don't believe New York will be able to run on the Pittsburgh defense here, and we do not like Eli Manning throwing the ball with high frequency without a running game to back him up. Steelers are at the start of what looks like an extended winning streak, and we'll back them to deliver their third double-digit victory in a row! 20* NFL "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Pittsburgh.

20* Play on Oakland (-3). Not sure what the Raiders have to do to get some respect from the linesmakers. They've won five games in a row and eight of their last nine dating back to late September, but have been listed as a four-point favorite or higher just once in that span. We'll jump on the good line value backing what is obviously the better team in this matchup against Buffalo and playing on their home field as an added bonus. Bills offense looses nearly six points per game from their season average when they leave home, and that's a bad omen considering Oakland is putting up 28 ppg on the season. Bills passing attack is virtually non-existent, having just 182 pypg on the season and failing to reach even 160 yards through the air in each of their last two games. Oakland has covered the spread in nine of the last ten games in this series, and with a huge offensive edge and home field advantage, we look for that trend to continue with an easy win and cover Sunday afternoon! 20* NFL "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Oakland.

20* Play on Kansas City (+3). Denver has has the Chiefs number the last few years with Peyton Manning behind center, but now that Manning is gone we like the Chiefs to finally grab a victory in this series. KC couldn't match Denver's passing attack in recent years, but they have improved in that department this season while Denver has taken a few steps back. Denver does get the slight edge defensively in this matchup, but Kansas City is underrated defensively and has actually given up fewer points per game than the Broncos this season. Big motivational edge to the visitor here, not only because they finally get a chance to get the monkey off their back in this series, but also entering this game in a "bounce-back" spot after having their five-game winning streak snapped last week in a two-point loss vs. Tampa Bay. KC comfortable playing on the road winning each of their last three games both outright as well as against the spread (Carolina, Indy, and Oakland). Denver managed to squeak out a close two-point win at New Orleans on a fluke play, but the fact that they couldn't get their passing game going against a very weak New Orleans secondary is a problem, and they have been held to less than 270 yards passing in seven straight games now. Chiefs pull the road upset tonight! 20* NFL "Sunday Night Showdown" Play on Kansas City.

25* Play on New England (-7). Pats have been one of our favorite "play on" teams ever since Tom Brady came back, and while they have been missing a few key offensive players the only thing those injuries have done is keep their pointspread lower and easier for us to cover. Their win and cover last week vs. San Francisco means New England is now 5-1 against the spread since Brady returned from his suspension, and we'll back him and the Pats at our highest 25* rating to win big once again this week. Jets are a complete mess on both sides of the ball and have lost six of their last eight games overall. Particularly important for this game is New York's pass defense, which has allowed over 300 yards four times already this year and this New England team will be the best passing team they will have faced to date. Jets are above average at stopping the run, but that will only result in more passing plays called for Brady and company. New England's weakness is their secondary, but New York lacks a credible passing threat and won't be able to take advantage. Brady has a huge statistical game as the Pats win this one in a lopsided blowout! 25* NFL Favorite of the Year Play on New England.

25* Play on Pittsburgh (-7.5). Steelers came through for us last Sunday as our AFC Game of the Year in an easy 24-9 win and cover (as 8-point road chalk) against the winless Cleveland Browns, controlling that game from the outset with a game plan heavily featuring RB Bell. That victory snapped a four-game losing streak for the Steelers and seemed to bring Pittsburgh back to basics in their offensive philosophy, which is to establish the run and then hit big pass plays off of play-action. The running game won't be featured as much this Thursday against a Colts defense who is decent at stopping the run, however they are extremely vulnerable in their secondary and that is where we give Pittsburgh the big advantage in this game. This is the third year in a row these two teams will face each other, and Big Ben has been up to the challenge in both of those meetings, posting 886 passing yards combined while the Steelers have put up a ridiculous 96 points. We are not expecting another 45+ point explosion by the visitor, but we do expect Pittsburgh to put up a big day through the air and light up the scoreboard for the third year in a row. Colts are a respectable 5-5 straight up on the season but that has come against a rather weak schedule and this is arguable their toughest game since they played Denver all the way back in Week 2 (lost that game by 14 points). Indy has virtually no rushing threat (just two games reaching at least 100 yards on the ground) and will have to rely solely on the pass to move the ball. Steelers used last week to re-establish the run, and they re-establish Big Ben's passing game this week in another lopsided victory! 25* NFL "Black Reign" Play on Pittsburgh.

Good luck, and don't forget our 30* CFB Game of the Year kicks off at Noon ET this Saturday!

20* Play on New England (-11). Patriots don't take too kindly to losing. We backed New England last week and were burned as Seattle was able to pass with far more success than we anticipated, and the Seahawks were able to pull off the outright upset. That was just the second loss for New England this year, and we expect them to bounce back much like they did after their first defeat of the season. After that first loss, we backed the Patriots as our 2016 NFL Game of the Year on the road against a bad Cleveland squad, and the Pats ended up with an easy 20-point win while covering they spread by a full ten points. Very similar spot here, as the Pats are a sizeable favorite on the road, but for good reason. 49ers defense can't stop anyone with a passing game, and while the aerial assault hurt NE last week, the 49ers have virtually no passing game. Pats head coach Bill Belichick is a profitable 17-7 at the betting window following a home loss and we look for that trend to continue as New England has the massive edge in the passing game here. Pats take this one by 20+ points! 20* NFL Blowout of the Month Play on New England.

25* Play on Pittsburgh (-7.5). The Cleveland Browns are mired in a historical losing season and might just hit that "perfect" 0-16 mark. Already losers of their first ten games, they don't catch a break in the schedule this Sunday as they face a Pittsburgh team that is desperate for a win after the Steelers have dropped four straight. This is the perfect opponent for Pittsburgh to face, as Big Ben is 20-2 straight up against the Browns in his career and the Steelers offensive and defensive units need a breakthrough statistical game to build their confidence. Steelers have gone away from their running game which has really hurt them in recent weeks. Pittsburgh played good enough to win last week but Dallas mounted a late comeback to win in the final moments. That loss hurt, and we expect Pittsburgh to take their aggression out on a hapless Cleveland squad that has already lost six games by double-digit margins. No reason for Pittsburgh not to return to their powerful rushing attack against a Browns defense that has given up 100+ yards rushing in eight of their ten games, and we don't expect much of anything from the Browns offensively after scoring just 17 points combined in their last two contests. Pittsburgh's losing streak and the few extra days of rest Cleveland has after playing last Thursday has this line far lower than it should be - lay the points with confidence as the Steelers win this one in the neighborhood of a 20-point margin! 25* AFC Game of the Year Play on Pittsburgh.

25* Play on New England (+106). We've backed the Patriots a few times since Tom Brady returned from his suspension, and for good reason and the Pats are looking like the best team in the entire league since that return. New England has not only gone 4-0 straight up with Brady in the lineup, but also 4-0 at the betting window with each victory coming by double-digits. And while we certainly are still high on the Pats right now, this selection is more of a play "against" Seattle than it is "on" New England. Seahawks don't resemble the team that has dominated the NFC in recent years, having a running game that has been held to under 75 yards in each of their last five games and a defensive secondary that has allowed 250+ yards passing in four straight contests. This matchup couldn't be any better for the Patriots, who are average at stopping the run and underrated against the pass. Pats defensive passing stats don't look great, but that is due to teams passing at a high rate in the second half to attempt to comeback from a deficit. And we don't have much faith in Seattle's passing game. New England keeps their streak of double-digit victories alive and well this Sunday night in another easy win and cover! 25* NFL Sunday Night Football Game of the Year Play on New England.

20* Play on Denver (+3). New Orleans is coming off a pair of wins against Seattle and San Francisco - two teams that have had their fair share of issues of late on both sides of the ball. Those wins have the Saints listed as a home favorite this week as they host Denver - another team struggling offensively. One thing Denver does do well, however, is play defense. And that's particularly true against the pass, as they've held seven of their nine opponents to under 190 yards through the air this season. We do believe New Orleans will be able to break the 200-yard passing mark here, but that is only because of their pass-heavy offensive approach. Saints will still struggle to move the ball and score against this Denver team, and when Drew Breese struggles he tends to get wild and turn the ball over. On the other side of the ball, the Saints are still a mess defensively and their secondary has a tough matchup here with two legit receiving threats to worry about. Not putting much stock in to the two-game winning streak by New Orleans as they play a much different opponent this week, and we fully expect Denver to win this game outright! 20* NFL "Underdog Demolition" Play on Denver.

20* Play on Los Angeles (+2). While Los Angeles RB Todd Gurley has been a disappointment this season and the Rams quarterback woes have been well-documented, the Rams come into this game against the Jets with a better passing game statistically than the Jets. And while New York's passing game is seemingly getting worse by the week (held to under 200 yards passing in three of their last four games), LA is getting better through the air (311, 271, 280 last three games). Both of these defenses are extremely stout against the rush and neither team should have much success on the ground, which means this game will be decided by the passing game, and that heavily favors the visitor. Not only because of the Jets offensive woes, but their secondary has been awful already allowing 300+ passing yards four times this season. This may not be a popular choice backing a losing team on the road, but at this moment the Rams are clearly the better team overall and benefit greatly from the on-field matchups. Rams not only win this game outright, but win easily! 20* NFL Underdog of the Month Play on Los Angeles.

25* Play on Dallas (-7). Great spot to fade the Browns this week after they blew their best remaining chance for their first win of the season last week at home vs. the Jets. Browns led big in that game early but then completely fell apart and are now winless in eight games with little chance (on paper) to avoid a historic season. Cowboys have won and covered six games in a row, and not that Cleveland has a strong home edge anyway, but the Cowboys are already 3-0 SU and ATS on the road this year. Dallas has scored at least 24 points in each of their last six games and we love the matchup of that high-scoring offense against what we consider to be the worst defense in the league. Add in the bad motivational spot for the home side and this one turns into a blowout before halftime! 25* NFL "Black Reign" Play on Dallas.

25* Play on New England (-5.5). Big revenge spot for the Pats here, as they look to avenge a shutout loss against these Bills as their only defeat this season. Of course, that came prior to Tom Brady's return, and for some unknown reason the Bills have been talking smack this week to give the Pats even more reason to be on their game. Brady has led the Pats to three straight double-digit wins since he returned (all ATS covers) and has put up huge passing numbers when warranted (didn't need to pass last week in the second half vs. Pittsburgh). Bills were a small home favorite last year vs. New England and lost outright by 8 points. Bigger margin of defeat for the home side this time around as New England shows no mercy! 25* NFL Blowout of the Year Play on New England.

25* Play on Oakland (+1.5). Linesmakers haven't properly adjusted their rating for the Oakland Raiders, who have already won three road games this year (in three chances), also going a perfect 3-0 ATS in those games including outright wins in New Orleans and Baltimore. Good on-field matchup for the Raiders this Sunday as their pass-heavy offensive attack goes up against an overrated Jacksonville secondary. Jags are pretty good at stopping the run, but Oakland doesn't need to run the ball in order to score. On the other side, Oakland's biggest weakness is their rush defense, but Jacksonville doesn't rush well - thus negating Oakland's weakness. Raiders have already proven they can win on the road, and they make it a perfect 4-0 away from home with another win and cover this Sunday! 25* NFL "Black Reign' Play on Oakland.

20* Play on New England (-7). We backed the Patriots last week in their easy 20-point win (and 10-point cover) on the road in Cleveland. This Sunday marks Tom Brady's first home game since returning from suspension, and we expect the crowd to be even more invested and rowdy than usual. Brady put up over 400 yards passing, and it could have been more if the Browns had put up any type of fight offensively. Bengals were tabbed as one of the best teams in the preseason, but haven't lived up to expectations winning just twice in five games while going 1-3-1 at the betting window. That includes a pair of losses on the road at Pittsburgh and Dallas by more than a touchdown each. Bengals defense decent at stopping the run but has holes in their secondary, which spells doom against a rested and motivated Brady-led Pats offense. New England put up 33 points last week and may top that mark this week in another blowout victory! 20* NFL Blowout of the Month Play on New England.

20* Play on Pittsburgh (-7). Steelers offense was unstoppable last week vs. Kansas City, showing the rest of the league how dominant they are with RB Le'Veon Bell back in the lineup alongside the QB-toWR combination of Big Ben and Antonio Brown. Way too much offense then for a visiting Jets to keep up with, noting New York has been held to under 200 yards passing in half their games, and have scored just 20 points combined the last two weeks. We don't think New York will be able to do much on the ground against a Pittsburgh rush defense that has held three of their four foes to under 90 yards rushing. Add in the confidence built up from last week's dominant effort and this one has all the makings for an old fashioned blowout! 20* NFL Blowout of the Month Play on Pittsburgh.

30* Play on New England (-10.5). We remember what New England was like the last time they had something to prove - blowing every team out and running up the score in the aftermath of the spygate scandal. Week 1 of the Tom Brady Revenge World Tour begins this Sunday against the worst team in the league, and this line isn't anywhere close to high enough to scare us away from backing the favorite. Browns secondary has come up with some big plays the last few weeks to stay relatively close, but the way Miami and Washington played against the Browns it was clear those foes never took Cleveland seriously. Not so for Brady and the Pats this week, as Brady will be looking to make a statement and after suffering an embarrassing shutout loss last week against Buffalo, the entire Patriots roster will be looking to avenge last week's poor showing. Browns incapable of putting up a fight here as they are thoroughly outmatched on both sides of the ball. Pats jump out to a huge lead early and never take their foot off the gas pedal as they win this one by 3+ touchdowns! 30* 2016 NFL Game of the Year Play on New England.

20* Play on San Francisco (+3.5). Arizona QB Carson Palmer didn't make the trip to San Francisco, which means the Cardinals will have Drew Stanton under center Thursday night. Cards couldn't have started any worse this year - not only losing Palmer for this game but also off to a poor 1-3 start with all three losses coming in the role of the favorite. We like the progress we've seen from San Francisco so far under new head coach Chip Kelly, and while their passing game still leaves much to be desired they are finding some success on the ground and with their short passing game. The loss of Palmer makes this Arizona team heavily dependent on the run, and we saw what San Francisco did against that type of offense in their 28-0 shutout win against the Rams on opening night. Cards lost 33-18 as five-point chalk in their lone road game this season, and without Palmer we expect the 49ers to hand Arizona their fourth outright upset loss this year! 20* NFL Thursday Night Thunder Play on San Francisco.

20* Play on Pittsburgh (-4.5). Steelers have to be pleased with their 2-1 start to the season while missing the services of RB Le'Veon Bell, even if that one defeat came in a lopsided beat down last week at Philadelphia. Steelers need to run the ball in order to be effective on offense, as their passing game really works from play-action. Steelers finished with just 29 yards rushing last week, but with Bell back in the lineup after serving a three-game suspension we expect the Pittsburgh offense to get back on track this week. Chiefs are also 2-1 but have been rather pedestrian on offense statistically, being held to 83 yards rushing or less twice and also 221 yards passing or less twice. Don't believe KC will force 8 turnovers like they did last week - they'll need to score in order to keep up with this Pittsburgh offense which will finally see Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell all on the field at the same time. Given the fact KC couldn't reach 300 total yards in their lone road game this year - a 7-point loss at Houston - we don't think the Chiefs have enough to stay close Sunday night. 20* NFL Sunday Night Game of the Month Play on Pittsburgh.

20* Play on New Orleans (-3). Saints won and covered both meetings between these teams last season, with New Orleans finishing with over 300 yards passing in both contests. After last week's offensive dud, we expect the Saints to get back on track with a huge offensive effort on their home field and win this game going away. We took the underdog in both of our previous MNF games (SF in Week 1, PHI last week) but like the favorite to win here. Saints are far better than they showed last week and we like backing good offensive teams at home after a poor road showing the week before. Atlanta did win last week but still looks like they lack confidence in the red zone - which was their undoing last year. Additionally, Falcons running game has not been nearly as good last year and in a battle of passing games, we'll take Breeze at home against anyone. 20* NFL Monday Night Showdown Play on New Orleans.

20* Play on Pittsburgh (-3.5). We backed the Eagles in both of their SU and ATS wins so far, as rookie QB Carson Wentz was able to shine against two of the weakest defenses the NFL has to offer (two worst secondaries in the league in our opinion). Much different task this week, however, and we expect the rookie to taste defeat for the first time this year. Steelers have looked solid on both sides of the ball so far, even while RB Bell still serves his three-game suspension. Pittsburgh shut down a very good Cincinnati team last week and has not allowed either the Redskins or Bengals to rush for more than 55 yards. Wentz had a productive running game behind him but the Steelers will force Wentz to beat them through the air this week. Big Ben and the offense will put up points on the scoreboard - not convinced Wentz can do the same in this spot. 20* NFL "Vegas Inferno" Play on Pittsburgh.

25* Play on Miami (-10). We are only in Week 3 and the Cleveland Browns are already on their third starting quarterback of the season. Browns have a chance to be historically bad this year - already having one of the worst defenses in the league and now missing their first-round draft pick while starting rookie QB Cody Kessler on the road. Kessler did not look good in the preseason and never looked comfortable in this offense - taking seven sacks in limited action (all against backup defenses) while finishing with 4.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt in three of those four preseason games. Browns offense wasn't all that great to begin with, although they did show some signs of life last week with McCown at the helm. Dolphins are desperate for a win and should absolutely dominate on both sides of the ball. Wouldn't be surprised to see a shutout here as the Dolphins easily cover this big number! 25* NFL Blowout of the Year Play on Miami.

20* Play on Philadelphia (+3). Bears did not look good last week putting up only 73 yards rushing and another 185 yards through the air in a 9-point loss at Houston. Now they face a confident Eagles team as rookie QB Carson Wentz looked good against an awful Browns defense. Wentz has another great matchup against one of the worst secondaries in all of football. We are not as high on Wentz as some are, but these first two weeks of the season couldn't be better matchups for him. Eagles scored 29 points last week and could match that again here while the Bears don't have enough offensive firepower to keep up.Bears 0-6 against the spread at home vs. conference opponents, and that trend continues as the Eagles take this one with ease! 20* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Philadelphia.

20* Play on Green Bay (-1.5). As of this writing, it appears that Sam Bradford will be under center for the Vikings. That can only help a Minnesota offense that did not play well last week - putting up only 300 yards of total offense. Vikings were bailed out by their defense, who scored two touchdowns themselves which was the difference in their 11-point win. Much different opponent for Minnesota this week, as they take on a Green Bay team with a legit rush-and-pass option and the return of WR Jordy Nelson is a big improvement from last year. Don't trust Vikings ability to run the ball against a Packers defense that only allowed 48 rushing yards last week, and Bradford isn't going to be completely comfortable in this offense yet. Basically picking the outright winner with this small line, and we expect Green Bay to win rather easily! 20* NFL "Sunday Night Showdown" Play on Green Bay.

25* Play on Baltimore (-6). Browns weren't going to be a good team anyway this season, but having QB RG3 injured in the first game of the season will have a big effect on the motivation for this team over the next few weeks. We actually think McCown is a better fit for this team, but in all honesty it doesn't make that much of a difference. Ravens will be able to control the clock and field position with their ground game and simply wear down the Browns. Baltimore has won and covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 trips to Cleveland, and this year is no different. Ravens in a blowout! 25* NFL "King's Ransom" Play on Baltimore.

20* Play on San Francisco (+2.5). We do like what the Rams are doing - building their cornerstones on offense with stud RB Todd Gurley and drafting QB Jared Goff. That being said, there isn't much else on the Rams offense, and this is a tough spot for LA in Chip Kelly's regular season debut with the 49ers. We don't expect much more than a heavy dose of rushing by Gurley and the Rams, and that is not a difficult offense to stop at the NFL level. Remember, last year when San Francisco was awful, they were still able to beat an Adrian Pederson-led, rush-heavy Vikings offense in the season opener. 49ers problems are almost entirely on the offensive side of the ball, and so Chip Kelly was brought in to turn things around. We love the prospects of RB Carlos Hyde in this offensive system, and while Blaine Gabbert got a bad rap in Jacksonville, he really didn't have much help at all around him. 49ers don't have much of a receiving corps, but Kelly's offensive schemes will still allow for plays to be made. Don't like LA's chance of putting up many points here, and we value SF's home field advantage enough for them to win this game outright. 20* NFL Monday Night Showdown Play on San Francisco.

20* Play on Atlanta (-2.5). Falcons jumped out to a perfect 5-0 record last year and were 6-1 when Tampa Bay came to town, but then their season fell apart. Bucs won that game in overtime to start an extended six-game losing skid for the Falcons (also lost in the final minutes at Tampa Bay during that stretch). Atlanta has made red zone scoring and turnovers a priority during this past offseason, and expect Atlanta to start hot again this year much like they did last season. The Matt Ryan to Julio Jones combination is one of the best in all of football, and we don't expect Tampa to be able to slow that combination down much here. Atlanta put up a combined 650 yards passing in last year's two matchups compared to just 395 yards passing combined for Tampa Bay. Remember, this is a Bucs team that won just six games last season (four wins against everyone not named Atlanta) and allowed 26 ppg in the process. Atlanta seemed to beat themselves last year more than being outplayed by their opponent. With this being the first game of the year, there is no "funk" or "slump" for the Falcons to have to play their way out of. Huge edge offensively and on their home field the Falcons make easy work of the Bucs! 20* NFL "Vegas Inferno" Play on Atlanta.

20* Play on Philadelphia (-3.5). This line has dropped dramatically with the trade of Eagles QB Sam Bradford, but we still feel the Eagles will win by a wide margin against a Browns team that has many issues on both sides of the ball. It seems like every year Cleveland starts their season with a new head coach at the helm as well as a new quarterback, and this year is no different with Hue Jackson roaming the sidelines and RG3 now under center. Browns offense was dreadful in the preseason, and while the Browns went the unusual route of playing their starters for most of the first half in the final warmup game, the team still struggled to get first downs and score points. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland struggled mightily against the run and their secondary also has many question marks. Carson Wentz will be the quarterback for Philadelphia and he is healthy after missing most of the preseason. This is the perfect game for Wentz to "get his feet wet", as his running game should have no problem racking up yardage which will only open up holes in the secondary. Eagles take control of this one from the beginning and cruise to a lopsided win and cover! 20* NFL Favorite of the Month Play on Philadelphia.

20* Play on Green Bay (-4.5). Packers sorely missed WR Jordy Nelson, who was out for the year after a preseason injury. Nelson hasn't seen much action this August, either, but word out of Green Bay is that Nelson is ready to go and will be the obvious main threat of the Packers offense. Nelson's loss last year hurt Green Bay's offense, and these Week 1 lines are typically based on last year's success or failure. Jacksonville is still one of the worst teams in the league, and their defense was rebuilt in the offseason so there will still be some things to work out. Rogers can pick apart the Jags all day long, and starting the year with a statement offensively is exactly what the Packers are aiming to do - symbolic of their return to dominance in the NFC. Even in a "down year" for the Pack, Green Bay still finished with six wins away from home (including playoffs) and were a money-earning 7-3 ATS. Jags no match for the Packers on either side of the ball, and we fully expect Green Bay to win this one in a blowout! 20* NFL "Blowout Demolition" Play on Green Bay..

25* Play on Carolina (-3). Aside from the two obvious factors in this game - Carolina's massive revenge spot from the Super Bowl and Denver losing QB Peyton Manning - the Panthers match up very well against this new-look Denver team. We are not playing those two factors, however, as we typically don't put too much stock in "revenge" in the NFL, however in certain cases it is justified and this is certainly one of them. And the loss of Manning was compounded with Brock Osweiler moving on, and more recently Mark Sanchez going to Dallas. That means Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback and he has not impressive in the Preseason tossing just one touchdown pass along with two interceptions (some of that time playing against second-string defenses). Siemian will be looking over his shoulder as Paxton Lynch figures to take the starting job at some point this season. Denver's defense is solid once again, but they don't have enough offensive firepower to keep up. Carolina is rightfully a road favorite here, and given the motivation on the visitor's sideline from the last meeting, Carolina dominates a weak Denver offenses and cruises to an easy win and cover! 25* Play on Carolina.

20* Play on Denver (+5.5). While the Carolina Panthers have been underrated by the linesmakers for the majority of the season, they are getting far too much respect in this game (thanks to a pair of blowout wins the last two games, but we'll get into that later) and we'll gladly take the points with the Denver Broncos playing in a great motivational spot as this will likely be quarterback Peyton Manning's final game. Panthers are laying 5.5 points against the Broncos on a true neutral field, which is the equivalent of being an 8.5-point favorite at home and a road favorite if this game were to be played in Denver. Broncos do have the type of offense that has proven to be tough against this Panthers defense - that being a pass-heavy team that doesn't really care if they establish the run or not. Remember, this is exactly the type of game plan that Atlanta used when they handed Carolina their only outright loss of the season, and similar to the games that lesser teams New Orleans and the New York Giants used when they nearly beat the Panthers outright (scoring 38 and 35 points in a pair of three-point losses but ATS covers). Carolina's big margin of victory two weeks ago against Arizona and their fast start against Seattle is the main cause for this line being as high as it is. But it's impossible to ignore the impact turnovers played in those two games (Seattle quickly made a comeback when they were able to hold on to the ball in the second half), with Arizona committing a ridiculous seven turnovers in the NFC Championship Game. Not many would argue that Peyton Manning is the best student in the game in terms of breaking down film and finding weaknesses in the defense. And while Manning admittedly doesn't have the arm as he had in recent years, he has had a number of weeks to rest up down the stretch and this game will be ideal in terms of weather - an overlooked factor as Manning has been known to be affected by the cold. We think the Broncos have an excellent chance at not only covering this generous number, but winning the game outright! 20* NFL Super Bowl Winner on Denver.

30* NFL Game of the Year on Arizona (+3). Fitting that Arizona and Carolina meet up with a trip to the Super Bowl on the line as the Cardinals and Panthers have easily been the two best and most consistent teams in the NFC all season. And while we very much like Carolina, we think this is a fantastic matchup for the Cardinals and we expect Arizona to not only win outright, but win big. We faded the Panthers in their only outright loss of the season at Atlanta, noting the Panthers defense is very susceptible to good passing offenses and while they have been winning games this year, they have done worse than most people realize against the better passing teams they have faced. This is especially true in the second half of the season, beating the Saints and Giants by slim three-point margins and then allowing 294, 309, and 325 points in their last three games. If not for an unbelievable first half against Seattle, Carolina might not even be here right now, as the Seahawks went pass-heavy in the second half and outscored the Panthers 24-0. Cardinals have one of the best passing attacks in the entire NFL, and the one thing in common in all three of their losses was turnovers. Arizona committed three turnovers in each of their three losses and two or fewer turnovers in 13 of their 14 victories. Arizona does not need to run in order to win, having three victories while being held to 82 or less yards rushing (including last week vs. Green Bay). Carolina's rush defense is superb, but we don't think Arizona will be committed to running the ball here when they know they can beat the Panthers secondary. On the other side of the ball, Arizona's rush defense is pretty good too, and their active secondary has forced two or more turnovers nine times this year. Panthers have been playing with fire many times down the stretch and have been able to escape almost every time, but against an elite Arizona pass offense we believe their luck runs out. Cardinals have been undervalued by the oddsmaker all season long away from home, going 7-1 straight up and a profitable 6-2 against the pointspread, and a perfect example of that undervalue is Arizona's ATS record in games with a line between +3 and -3. Accounting for different scenarios we have Arizona winning game game every time and we'll back the Cardinals as our 2015-16 NFL Game of the Year! 30* NFL Game of the Year Play on Arizona.

20* Play on New England (-3). We backed the Pats last week in their seven-point win and one-point cover at home vs. the Chiefs. That margin of victory does not accurately portray New England's victory in our opinion, as the Patriots scored a touchdown on their opening drive and held the lead the entire way. In fact, after opening a 14-3 lead early in the second quarter, New England led by at least a touchdown for the rest of the game - allowing a late Kansas City score in garbage time when the outcome was hardly in doubt. We'll back the Patriots on the road to win again and advance to the Super Bowl, once again noting the huge edge in passing offense as they had last week. Peyton Manning did enough to get past a wounded Steelers team last week, but he was hardly the dominant quarterback he's been in the recent past finishing with just 215 yards passing. And Denver's defense - which has been tremendous all season long - showed once again that they can be beat through the air in allowing Big Ben to go for over 300 yards even while missing his top receiving threat. Oddsmakers have set a trap begging for action on the Broncos at home, but we're not biting and we look for a much more reliable New England offense to get the job done. Brady vs. Manning has been one of the best quarterback rivalries the NFL has ever seen, but time has caught up to the Denver quarterback and few would argue Brady is currently the better passer. Pats very good in recent years playing with in-season revenge and while the end of the regular season wasn't great statistically, they were more focused on getting healthy for the postseason (the right call in our opinion). Brady finally has most of his receiving weapons back on the field, and we look for New England to win this one by a surprising margin! 20* NFL "Watch Party" Play on New England.

25* Play on Pittsburgh (+7). While we do like the fact that Denver was able to rest QB Peyton Manning for this playoff run, we don't like the idea of backing Manning against a blitz-heavy defense in cold weather. With the temperatures expected to be in the 30's at kickoff, and given Manning's sub-par play in cold weather throughout his career (even when he was at the top of his game, which he clearly is not anymore), we love getting this many points with a solid Pittsburgh team. Steelers are dealing with injuries, but that is nothing new to this team as they have been dealing with injuries all season long and still found a way to make it this far. Not sure if Pittsburgh can win this game outright (although it wouldn't surprise us if the Steelers were able to come away with an outright victory), but we do look for this game to come down to the wire regardless of who wins and for the Steelers to cover this generous number. Denver's secondary was torched for 354 yards in the only in-season meeting between these teams and they can expect another dose of heavy passing plays this Sunday. Not fair to label Denver's offense as ineffective down the stretch as Manning wasn't playing in those games, but we don't believe the Broncos will all of a sudden become an unstoppable offense now that Manning is back under center. Pittsburgh has the type of pass offense that takes away Denver's strength defensively, which is taking risks and stopping the run. We look for this game to stay close throughout with the Steelers having a chance for an outright win late, and we'll back the Steelers at our highest 25* rating! 25* NFL "King's Ransom" Play on Pittsburgh.

20* Play on Arizona (-7). Packers offense came alive last week against a sub-par Washington defense, scoring 35 points which represents their best scoring output since the third week of the season. Green Bay hasn't really seemed right since the preseason after suffering a number of injuries (including the key loss of WR Jordy Nelson), and injuries to the Packers figure to be a big concern here as WR Adams and CB Shields are both listed as doubtful. Those injuries are even more significant considering the opponent. Arizona has proven to be one of the most formidable passing teams in the league this season, and will no doubt put up big offensive numbers after averaging 31 ppg and 288 passing yards per game on the season. Losing Shields in the secondary only boosts Arizona's matchups in the secondary, and we don't believe Green Bay will be able to do much on the ground against a Cardinals defense that has held four of their last six foes to under 75 yards rushing. That puts a ton of pressure on Packers QB Aaron Rogers, who has the name value as an elite QB but not the stats to back it up this year. Packers have been held to under 275 yards passing in each of their last six games, and while much of that blame can go to injuries in the receiving corps, it doesn't change the fact that Green Bay's passing game is not what it has been in recent years. Arizona just beat these Packers by a blowout 30-point margin a few weeks ago, and while we don't expect another 30+ point margin of victory we would be surprised of Arizona didn't take this game by double-digits! 20* NFL Saturday Night Showdown Play on Arizona.

20* Play on New England (-4.5). We give Kansas City all the credit in the world for making it this far - especially since they lost their main offensive weapon early in the season with RB Jamaal Charles going on the IR back in October. That being said, they face a very bad on-field matchup this week in New England in a contest that we feel the Patriots have a lopsided advantage in the passing game, and we are very comfortable laying the small number with New England expecting the Pats to win this one easily. While Kansas City has used defense and a time of possession type of offensive game plan with a heavy emphasis on their running game and short passes, that is not the formula for success against an elite New England offense. KC didn't get any help with the weather, as the forecast calls for temperatures well above freezing which will not hurt New England's passing game. Both Edelman and Gronkowski are expected to suit up and play for Brady, and we expect both to have significant contributions in the passing game. While Kansas City is very good at stopping the run, the loss of running backs Lewis and Blount turn an already pass-heavy New England offense into an even bigger pass-heavy offense this week, and the Chiefs have been hurt by the better passing teams they've faced this year. Home field advantage is big for NE, going 7-1 straight up here at home and outscoring foes by an average of 14 ppg. Chiefs do not have the type of offense that can get back into the game after falling behind, being held to under 180 yards passing in each of their last six games. Too much offense from the home side and the Chiefs can't run their way back into it! 20* NFL Saturday "Watch Party" Play on New England.

25* Play on Seattle (-4.5). On December 6th, Seattle came here to Minnesota and absolutely crushed the Vikings 38-7. And while that final score is certainly impressive, the box score shows how dominant Seattle really was in that game. Minnesota was held to just 31 yards rushing total (Peterson held to 18 yards on 8 carries) while quarterback Teddy Bridgewater finished with 118 yards passing with no touchdowns and one interception. When taking sacks into account, the Vikings were held to just 94 yards passing. With extremely cold temperatures in the forecast for Sunday's game, that will put a heavier emphasis on the running game for both teams, and we expect Seattle to take this one in a blowout once again. Despite being the road team, Seattle is the biggest favorite on the board this Wild Card weekend, and for good reason. We have noted before how we don't like Bridgewater in cold conditions - going all the way back to his college days at Louisville. Bridgewater is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL in our opinion, as Minnesota has been held to under 200 yards passing on ten occasions this season. You can get away with low passing numbers when the running game is working, but Seattle has proven they can take the Vikings rushing attack away, which leaves the Vikings with no viable offensive options. Seattle with a ton of momentum going 6-1 both straight up and against the spread heading into this game, and have won each of their last three road games by blowout margins of 30, 29, and 31 points. All signs point to a blowout here and we'll back Seattle at our highest 25* rating to win big! 25* NFL "Black Reign" Play on Seattle.

20* Play on Pittsburgh (-3). We waited to see exactly who was going to play and who was going to sit out before we released this selection, and with Cincinnati quarterback Andy Dalton not suiting up for this game, we are very comfortable laying the points on the road with the Pittsburgh Steelers to win this game with ease. Bengals have been held under 200 yards passing in all three games McCarron started down the stretch, and Pittsburgh's 33-20 win here in Cincinnati four weeks speaks volumes in terms of how the Steelers will approach this Wild Card matchup. Pittsburgh will be even more pass-heavy than usual on Saturday night, but that fits perfectly into the way Cincinnati defends, as they are susceptible against the pass but very good against the rush. Don't believe the Bengals have enough fire power with Dalton out to stay close or play catch-up in the second half of this game. Bengals have a history of coming up short in the month of January, going just 3-12 against the pointspread in January games long term. Steelers meanwhile have very good history against the Bengals, going 20-5 straight up and 19-6 ATS here in Cincinnati. Big Ben clearly has enough playoff experience and we tend to put a heavier emphasis on quarterback play come playoff time. A Roethlisberger vs. McCarron quarterback matchup can only be viewed as a big edge to the visitor, and we'll back the Steelers to win this one by a comfortable margin! 20* NFL "Watch Party" Play on Pittsburgh.

20* Play on San Francisco (+3.5). Much like our play last week on Atlanta when they upset Carolina, we don't expect this selection on San Francisco to be a popular choice. But we are calling for the 49ers to end their season with an upset victory in a pretty good matchup for the home side. St. Louis has virtually no passing threat whatsoever, instead relying on their running game to move the ball offensively. That style of offense has resulted in low numbers of 15 ppg scored on just 280 yards of total offense on average for the Rams in their road games this year. 49ers are underrated in terms of rush defense - especially here at home where they are only giving up 92 rushing yards per game on a low 3.3 yards per carry. Teams with bad records like the 49ers have their rushing numbers (against) skewed since teams tend to run out the clock in the fourth quarter. Rams have scored at least 21 points in each of their last three games, but their offensive statistics don't support that type of scoring and we don't believe they can sustain that type of production one more week. Another big factor to consider is the Rams massive letdown spot after shocking Seattle last week as a 10.5-point road underdog. That's the second time this year they've upset Seattle, and after the first one they came back on the road the next week to lose by two touchdowns against (at the time) a bad Washington team - scoring just 10 points on 213 yards of total offense. Rams are 0-6 ATS after a division win and also 0-6 ATS after a win by points or less. 49ers take this one outright! 20* NFL Underdog of the Month Play on San Francisco.

20* Play on Buffalo (+3). The only justification for this line is New York "needing to win" this game, and thus the average sports bettor believes the Jets will play harder to secure their playoff spot. We never understood that rationale, as it not only implies that teams don't try hard to win in the rest of their games, and it also ignores any motivational factors of the opponent. Buffalo already beat the Jets on the road this season - holding New York to just 280 total yards - and if anything they would love nothing more to spoil a division rival's playoff chances. New York is in a bad motivational spot here - coming off their biggest win of the season when they beat the Patriots in overtime last week, and that sets up an obvious letdown situation this Sunday. We don't trust the Jets on the road, and going over their last four road games we find they have unimpressive three-point wins against a pair of bad NFC East teams (Giants, Cowboys) as well as outright losses as favorites against Houston and Oakland, with both of those defeats coming by at least a touchdown. Buffalo does not come off as a team that has given up despite being eliminated from playoff contention, and they have been especially good on the ground going for 240 and 236 yards the last two weeks. Buffalo wins this one outright! 20* NFL "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Buffalo.

20* Play on Atlanta (-5.5). We backed the Falcons last week in their outright win against the Panthers, and we'll back them again this Sunday in another big revenge spot - this time against the New Orleans Saints. Atlanta became the first team to knock off Carolina last Sunday, which can only be viewed as a confidence building victory for a team that has been a huge disappointment in the second half of the season. Falcons started the year with a fast 5-0 record, but then lost as a three-point favorite in New Orleans (despite out-gaining the Saints overall) and they never recovered. Normally, coming off a big win against the Panthers would have us looking to fade that team the following week, as that is a textbook "letdown" spot. However, we believe Atlanta has had this game circled for weeks as the Saints are the team that broke their momentum and thus ruined their season. Atlanta's passing game has worked out the kinks they had in their mid-season flop, and more importantly they have stopped turning the ball over which has really been the main cause for their dysfunction. New Orleans is being outscored by 11 ppg on the road this season (2-5 straight up) and are one of the worst defenses in the league allowing 31 points per game. No real motivation for the Saints this week - playing on the road with nothing on the line and we don't expect much fight if and when they fall behind early. Falcons have covered three straight on this field in this series, and they make it four in a row with a blowout win Sunday! 20* NFL "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Atlanta.

20* Play on Washington (+4). Absolutely no reason for Dallas to be favored in this game, missing both QB Tony Romo and WR Dez Bryant. We understand they are the home team but Dallas is just 1-5 SU and ATS at home this season and that lone SU victory came in their season-opener with a healthy roster. Washington has won three straight - all while being listed as the underdog - and we expect the streak to continue with another outright victory here. Redskins can't improve their playoff positioning, but are in desperate need to build confidence and momentum heading into the playoffs. Washington is unlike any other playoff team in the NFC - they don't have history (Green Bay, Seattle) or a great record (Carolina, Arizona) to fall back on once the playoffs start - they really do need to build confidence on this team that was under .500 just a few weeks ago. Cowboys scored just six points last week at Buffalo and barely reached 300 total yards offensively. No reason for Dallas to play any differently this week, and if anything we believe the Cowboys have already given up and are just waiting for the end of the season to finally come. Washington is the far better offensive club and should be motivated by this pointspread. Redskins take this one outright! 20* NFL "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Washington.

25* Play on Houston (-6.5). Texans have been one of the most underrated teams in the entire NFL in the second half of the season, and come into this home game against Jacksonville 6-2 both straight up and ATS in their last eight games - three of those victories coming outright while listed as underdogs. Houston can clinch a playoff spot with a win here at home (Colts can still reach the playoffs if about 8 NFL results fall their way), and we expect the Texans to come through with a blowout win and cover against a disinterested Jacksonville side. Houston gets a huge motivational boost with the return of QB Brian Hoyer, who is their best option at the position in our opinion. Almost as important as getting Hoyer back, Houston's running game has come alive lately with 120+ yards rushing in five of their last six games overall. That legit rushing threat combined with their stellar rush defense give Houston a great matchup advantage against most weaker and average NFL foes - which is why they've been so good the last two months. Jacksonville is just 2-6 on the road this year giving up 33 points per game. All the momentum, confidence, and motivation lies with the home side here, and this game will be played in front of a Houston crowd that is eagerly waiting to celebrate a playoff berth. All statistical and motivational evidence points to a blowout win by the home side, and we'll back Houston at our highest 25* rating to win and cover with ease! 25* NFL "King's Ransom" Play on Houston.

25* Play on Cincinnati (+3). Both teams will have their backup quarterbacks starting in this pivotal game, and while we've backed Denver behind Osweiler before, we don't like this matchup against a Cincinnati team that is extremely difficult to run on. Osweiler had been able to manage the offense while relying on their running game, but now teams are forcing Denver to throw the ball and they haven't been able to step up to the challenge. The biggest evidence of this is Denver's second half offense, which has not scored a single point in three straight games (outscored 36-0 in the last three second halves). AJ McCarron gets the start in place of an injured Andy Dalton, and he looked good last week in an easy win and cover against the 49ers. Obvious, facing this Denver defense is a much tougher task for the Bengals, but we have much more faith in McCarron passing the ball than we do with Denver. Broncos have lost back-to-back games against Oakland (at home) and Pittsburgh (on the road) and their confidence is clearly evaporating. Bengals are very confident on the road going 6-1 straight up, with that lone loss coming by just three points against a very good Arizona team. In fact, the Bengals have covered the spread in all seven of their road games this season. Not applicable to judge these offenses based on season stats as the loss of Manning and Dalton make those season-long statistics moot. Denver is widely considered the best defense in the league, but Cincinnati is actually giving up fewer ppg defensively than the Broncos, and their biggest weakness (secondary) is an area where we're not sure Denver can take advantage of. Not only does Cincinnati cover this number, but we look for them to win this game outright! 25* NFL "Black Reign" Play on Cincinnati.

25* Play on Arizona (-5.5). Packers have had their troubles in the second half of the season, and while they enter this game winners of three in a row, the stats tell a different story. Two of those wins came against Detroit and Oakland on the road, where their win against the Lions was thanks to a Haily Mary at the end of the game, and the Raiders actually out-rushed and out-passed the Packers in that game. Now Green Bay travels to Arizona to take on one of the best teams in the league and a very formidable Cardinals offense. Not convinced Packers will be able to "will" themselves to victory - they'll have to earn it on the field. Nobody has been able to put up any meaningful rushing numbers on the Cardinals defense this season, and the loss of WR Jordy Nelson in the preseason has left a big hole in the Packers receiving corps that has resulted in the Packers passing attack being far less effective this year than in previous seasons. Arizona is scoring 12 ppg more than they are allowing on the season, and we fully expect them to win this game with surprising ease. 25* NFL "King's Ransom" Play on Arizona.

20* Play on Atlanta (+7). Panthers are 14-0 and have already clinched their division as well as a first round bye. And while Carolina has literally been unbeatable this season, we think this is a perfect situation for their first outright loss. Panthers have been shaky in their last two road games - against teams with losing records - beating both the Saints and Giants by slim three-point margins. Add in the doubtful playing status of RB Jonathan Stewart to this road divisional rivalry game, and the chances of Atlanta not only covering this big spread but scoring an outright upset win is pretty good. Falcons have been playing far below their potential in the second half of the season, but they finally stopped the bleeding with a win last Sunday - ending a long six-game losing skid and an even longer nine-game ATS losing streak. They do have the type of passing offense that can score against the Panthers - something both the Giants and Saints were able to do when they nearly pulled upsets on their home fields. And while Carolina just shut out these Falcons 38-0 two weeks ago, that lopsided score will have the Falcons in a big revenge spot from that embarrassing loss. We know this won't be a popular play, but that just proves how much line value we are getting here, with the average sports bettor all over the undefeated Panthers this Sunday. 20* NFL "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Atlanta.

20* Play on Buffalo (-6). We've faded the Cowboys a number of times this season as their offense has been simply dreadful without QB Tony Romo under center, and we'll go back to the well one more time this Sunday as the Cowboys visit Buffalo. Bills offense gas been pretty consistent in the second half of the year, scoring at least 20 points in eight of their last nine games. We think 20 points again this week is more than enough to cover this number. Cowboys were held to 16 points last week - the fourth consecutive game Dallas failed to reach the 20-point plateau. Whatever confidence and Dallas had last week is now gone as their slim playoff hopes were evaporated, and reality has now set in on this four-win team. Turnovers have also been a big problem for Dallas this year - not a big surprise considering their quarterback issues, and this is exactly the type of motivational spot (on the road, eliminated from playoff contention, and near the end of the season) where focus begins to be an issue - leading to even more turnovers. Bills rushing offense matches up very favorably against a Cowboys team that gave up 230 yards on the ground in their previous road game (Green Bay), and we fully expect Buffalo to have a big edge in time of possession as a direct result. Bills dominate the ground game and pull away in the second half to an easy win and cover! 20* NFL "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Buffalo.

20* Play on Houston (-3.5). Even with Brian Hoyer out and Brandon Weeden getting the start for the Texans, we really like their chances of winning easily this Sunday on the road at Tennessee. Texans beat the Colts in Indy last week, so a win here coupled with a Colts loss will have Houston secure the division and a postseason berth. Weeden went 11-18 for 105 yards and a touchdown (no interceptions) after he came in late and won that game for Houston, which is a huge confidence boost for the quarterback who was cut from Dallas earlier this year. He'll face an extremely weak secondary this week, as Tennessee has been continuously torched through the air all season long, and this defense has zero confidence after allowing 30+ points in each of their last three games. Houston had no problem beating Tennessee in the first matchup this season, winning 20-6 at home (as a 3.5-point favorite) and setting a franchise record as they sacked Zach Mettenberger seven times in that victory. Titans only managed 211 yards of offense total in that game, and Mettenberger will get the start again in this game with Mariota still out. Tennessee actually has every motivation to lose this game, as they are currently slated for the #1 overall pick on the NFL draft as long as they lose their last two. Everything points to an easy Houston win, based on the stats from the first matchup and the differing motivational factors for both sides. Also, with Weeden under center we are getting great line value, and we'll lay the small price expecting Houston to win and cover easily! 20* NFL "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Houston.

20* Play on Washington vs. Philadelphia Over (48.5). Both of these teams control their destiny for an NFC East Division crown and a spot in the playoffs despite their records falling well short of the top teams in the conference, and with that playoff appearance on the line we fully expect both teams to come out and play extremely well. What we mean by that statement is that we expect both offenses to come out and play extremely well, as both teams feature defenses that have not been good this year - especially in their secondary, and both offenses feature on-field matchups that heavily favor these teams reaching the end zone numerous times. Washington is giving up over 30 ppg on the road, and while their road offensive numbers aren't great in terms of points scored, they face a Philly stop unit on Saturday night that has given up at least 28 points in four of their last five games. Redskins passing game has vastly improved in the second half of the season and we expect the passing game to be heavily featured in this matchup. Eagles offense has also dramatically improved of late, and the demotion of RB Murray has led to a more typical "Chip Kelly" offensive style that has picked up the pace in between downs and now features more screen plays. We have no idea who will win this game outright and we believe both teams have a pretty even chance of taking this game outright, however, we do believe no matter which team wins this game will fly over the total! 20* NFL "Total Eclipse" Play on Washington vs. Philadelphia Over.

20* Play on Oakland (-5.5). While both of these teams don't have any hope for playoff contention, we do like the way Oakland has played this season, and they are still playing for a confidence-boosting .500 record. Raiders won by a comfortable eight-point margin the first time these teams met up - with that Oakland victory coming as a 3.5-point road underdog. This is only the second time all season Oakland will take their home field as the favorite, and we expect them to dominate this game from beginning to end. Raiders proved they are playing hard to the end in their outright win at Denver two weeks ago, and while San Diego was also victorious last week they have yet to win back-to-back games all season long. Chargers just 1-5 away from home this season being outscored by an average of 6 ppg in those road contests, and they have been wildly inconsistent on offense of late. In their last five games, they have either been held to just three points total (three times) or reached 30 (scored 30 points last week and 31 points vs. Jacksonville). Don't believe we'll see the "good" Chargers offense here noting Oakland hasn't allowed a 300-yard passing effort in six straight games, and the Chargers rush offense has been horrible all year long. Also, the Chargers are 0-3 both straight up and ATS after exploding for 30+ points in their previous game this season. Raiders have the big motivational edge, the obvious confidence after already beating them handily on the road earlier this season, and the matchup advantages on both sides of the ball. All adds up to an easy win and cover by the home side Thursday night! 20* NFL Thursday Night Thunder Play on Oakland.

25* Play on Pittsburgh (-6.5). Linesmakers have set a trap with this line and are begging for action the visitor, but we know better and we'll lay the points with Pittsburgh at home at our highest 25* rating. Steelers are battling for their playoff lives but are treated with much respect by the sportsbooks - in fact they are the second choice to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl behind New England despite not even being a playoff team based on current standings. That speaks volumes about where Pittsburgh stands with Big Ben back under center, and if last week's 13-point road win at playoff-bound Cincinnati was any indication, this team is poised for a big late-season push. Broncos offense was stymied in the second half and lost outright at home against Oakland last week, a huge loss in confidence for this team that is still missing QB Peyton Manning and the Broncos were unable to find the end zone for the duration of that game. Much tougher defense here and Oakland proved that if Denver can't run the ball, QB Brock Osweiler isn't going to lead the team down the field through the air. Pittsburgh has now covered the spread in each of their last December games and have all the motivation in the world here at home to win big and move into a playoff spot. 25* NFL "Clash of the Titans" Play on Pittsburgh.

20* Play on NY Jets vs. Dallas Under (41.5). We can't possibly back Dallas without Tony Romo and we don't like backing the Jets on the road where they offense becomes inconsistent, however, we do like the Under in this matchup. The betting public agrees, knocking this total down from the opening number and we'll go with the public here looking for both teams to be held to under 20 points each. Dallas is a mess offensively without Romo, and while the NFC East has been up for grabs since the start of the season, we believe the Cowboys latest defeat - a 28-7 whipping at Green Bay - took away any motivation that was left on this roster. Cowboys offense has scored less than 20 points in three straight games and now faces a Jets defense that is extremely good against the run and will force Dallas to beat them through the air - something the Cowboys can no longer accomplish without Romo under center. On the other side, the Cowboys secondary is underrated allowing just one 300-yard passing game against them all season long. Cowboys are 7-1 Under this season coming off an ATS loss, and we look for that streak to continue as this one stays well under the posted total. 20* NFL Saturday "Total Eclipse" Play on NY Jets vs. Dallas Under.