25* Play on Baylor (+2). Baylor Bears are down to their third string quarterback now, but as we mentioned before, the Bears playing without their starting quarterback is not nearly the problem it would be for most other teams. Baylor runs a "system" offense that can easily plug in a new quarterback without missing much, and we expect the Bears high-scoring offense to proceed without missing a beat against a very poor and young TCU defense. The fact that Baylor is such a small underdog on the road despite missing their starting and second string QB shows just how much confidence the linesmaker has in the Bears scoring unit. TCU does not have the same luxury, and while the Horned Frogs may see starting QB Trevone Boykin back on the field for this game (listed as "questionable"), he certainly won't be close to 100% and more importantly TCU is missing their best receiving threat for the rest of this season. Neither team is good defensively, but we are much more confident with Baylor's chances to score at will than a beat up TCU offense. Horned Frogs made a furious comeback to lose by a single point against Oklahoma last week - but that game can't be judged by the final score. Oklahoma was up big prior to QB Baker Mayfield leaving the game and were well on their way to running up the score. Sooners weren't able sufficiently run their offense for the entire game, but Baylor won't have any problem doing just that this week. This game feels like a trap begging for TCU action on their home field. We're not biting, and we'll back the Bears at our highest 25* rating to win by a surprising margin! 25* CFB "Black Reign" Play on Baylor.

20* Play on Arkansas (-14). Not sure what happened over Arkansas' bye week, but this has been a completely different team since that time and we'll back them against one of our favorite "play-against" teams in Missouri this Friday. Prior to the bye, Arkansas had been held to 24 points or fewer in five straight games - a stretch that saw the Razorbacks go just 1-4 straight up including a pair of surprising home losses as double-digit favorites vs. Toledo and Texas Tech. Since the bye, however, Arkansas has scored 50+ points four times in five games - the lone exception coming in an outright 31-14 road win at LSU as a big 6.5-point road underdog. That resurgent offense against a Missouri team that has been one of the most dreadful offenses in the entire country is a massive mismatch and one the Tigers can't overcome. Tigers scored just 8 points last week - the fifth conference game in a row they've been held to 13 points or fewer (four times held to single digits). Missouri is good defensively - especially against the run - but they can be beat through the air and this is where Arkansas is suddenly excelling over the past few weeks. Razorbacks offensive fury continues this Friday and they win this one in a blowout! 20* CFB "Blowout Demolition" Play on Arkansas.

20* Play on Akron (-10.5). We've faded the Golden Flashes a few times in the last few weeks (both with our premium selections and free selections) and we'll fade them again expecting another blowout loss to close their year. Kent State has been one of the worst teams in the country over the past few seasons and they didn't do much to improve that perception this season, going just 2-8 straight up vs. FBS opponents. Their most recent road game saw the Golden Flashes on the wrong end of a 27-0 shutout - failing against the number by 20.5 points. That was just one of four SU and ATS losses in Kent State's last four games, and nothing on paper suggests they'll be competitive this week. Akron has won and covered three straight heading into this weekend, and while their secondary is weak they face a Kent State team that only averages 14 ppg and 139 passing yards per game on the season (those numbers both go down in conference play). Big matchup and motivational advantages to the home side here and we'll back Akron (playing with revenge) to win easily on Senior Day in an easy ATS cover! 20* CFB "High Noon Showdown" Play on Akron.

25* Play on Texas Tech (+1). Longhorns listed as a small favorite on Thanksgiving night against Texas Tech, and the only reason we can think of for Texas being a favorite here is name value and home field advantage. That sure didn't work out for them last Thanksgiving as they were crushed 48-10 at home against TCU. Horned Frogs opened as a 6.5-point favorite in that game but heavy action on Texas brought that line down all the way to -5 by kickoff. Texas being favored here surely has nothing to do with how they've played this year, going just 4-6 straight up and losing by double-digits against both West Virginia and Iowa State in their last three games. Texas Tech is done with their hard part of their schedule and after putting up 59 points against Kansas State their last time out, we expect another big offensive effort from the Red Raiders on Thursday night. We'll back the underdog here noting Texas Tech is scoring 21 ppg higher than Texas in conference play, and while the Red Raiders have much to be desired on defense, we don't believe the Longhorns have enough offensive firepower to keep up with Texas Tech. The defensive numbers for Texas have looked better in their most recent games, but that has come against the weaker foes in the conference. They gave up 50 points against TCU and 45 points against Cal - and face another pass-heavy offense in this game that has proven to give them a ton of problems. Texas will be able to run the ball on Texas Tech, but once the Longhorns fall behind they'll be forced to throw and then the Red Raiders will be able to add to their lead. Longhorns also in a lookahead spot with Baylor on deck, and don't have much to play for here with an very unlikely chance of even becoming bowl eligible. We don't look for a 38-point margin of defeat this time around, but Texas Tech does win this game by a convincing margin! 25* CFB "King's Ransom" Play on Texas Tech.

20* Play on Northern Illinois (-13). Huskies are on a roll entering this final game of the season having won six straight (and going 5-0-1 against the spread), and we'll back them to win big again on Senior Day against the Bobcats. We're getting some pretty decent line value backing the home side here thanks to a pair of blowout wins and covers by Ohio U the last two weeks. Bobcats looked good against MAC doormats Kent State and Ball State, as they won those two games on their home field by a combined 44 points. The bad news for Ohio U is that they not only go on the road where they are giving up 34 ppg (9 ppg more than their overall season average), but against the hottest team in the Mid American Conference that is beating teams by 19 ppg on their home field (5-0 straight up record). Bobcats ran all over their last two opponents but they won't be able to run on this Northern Illinois defense, and in a matchup between two rush-heavy offenses we give UNI the big edge on both sides of the ball. Prior to those two wins Ohio U lost by blowout margins of 38, 24, and 35 points in their previous three games, and based on the Bobcats 1-10 ATS mark on the road after back-to-back conference wins by double-digits, we look for another blowout on Tuesday night! 20* CFB Tuesday "Watch Party" Play on Northern Illinois.

25* Play on Oklahoma (-10). The linesmaker didn't post an early line on this game due to the questionable playing status of QB Trevone Boykin. In all honesty, it doesn't really matter of Boykin plays or not as we view this matchup extremely similarly to Oklahoma's game last week against Baylor - a game we backed the Sooners in at our top 25* rating. We felt the difference in that game was going to be defense, and we feel the exact same way this week. After playing with fire with close wins against Texas Tech (won by 3 points in the final minute of play) and Kansas State (won by seven points), the Horned Frogs finally lost their first (and only) game of the season a few weeks ago against Oklahoma State. That loss was going to come sooner or later, as TCU's defense has been awful all season long and the offense simply can't out-score teams by themselves week after week (see Baylor). And also like Baylor, the Horned Frogs secondary has been especially bad - giving up huge yardage against the better passing teams they have faced. Once again, Oklahoma has the huge edge defensively in this game, along with a confident offense that can move the ball both on the ground as well as through the air. It's the passing game that will be especially useful in this game, and judging by TCU's close call last week against Big 12 doormat Kansas (an inexcusable effort even with Boykin's injury), it's clear that TCU's "National Championship or Bust" attitude this season has this team reeling after suffering that loss, and the loss of stud receiver Josh Doctson for the rest of the year won't help matters. Sooners have a real shot of making the CFB Top 4 even with their early loss against Texas and have arguably played better than anyone in the country over the last month. Sooners the better team on both sides of the ball and they prove it with a convincing win as they state their case on a national stage for the second week in a row to be in the CFP discussion! 25* CFB "Clash of the Titans" Play on Oklahoma.

20* Play on Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Over (76). We agree with the linesmaker having this key Big 12 matchup between Baylor and Oklahoma State as a pick 'em, as we think this is a true 50-50 game. These teams are nearly identical having prolific scoring offenses led by dominant passing attacks, as well as horrible defenses that give up a ton of points and total yardage. We faded Baylor last week at our top 25* rating noting Oklahoma had a massive edge defensively. We don't feel the same way about Oklahoma State this week, however we do expect the combination of two prolific scoring offenses combined with an expected fast tempo and two weak secondaries to lead directly to an easy Over winner here. Points are expect as this total is well over 70 points, but this isn't nearly high enough to scare us away. Cowboys have gone over the total in four straight games and are now 15-3 Over at home riding a 4+ game winning streak. Baylor's running game ran into trouble against Kansas State and Oklahoma, but will get back on track here against a Cowboys defense that gave up 200+ rushing yards in each of the last two weeks (TCU and Iowa State). Again, the passing games for both teams expects to be the featured choice of attack, and after watching Oklahoma State and Texas Tech put up 123 points in regulation a few weeks ago, another 100-point combined score isn't out of the question this week! 20* CFB "Total Eclipse" Play on Baylor vs. Oklahoma State Over.

20* Play on Tennessee (-6.5). As much as we tend to label the SEC as being overrated, Tennessee is one of the most underrated teams in the country in our opinion. They battled Alabama tough at home - losing by just five points. They should have beat Florida on the road (wound up losing by a single point) and took Oklahoma to overtime before falling in extra time. Those are three teams currently ranked in the top 8 that the Volunteers had a real chance of beating outright. We love Tennessee this Saturday on the road against a bad Missouri team that is a mess offensively, and we look for the Vols to cover this number with ease. Missouri has had a very weak schedule to this point and have failed miserably against the few credible opponents they've faced. While listed as an underdog at a price similar to this Saturday's line, they were blown out at home against Florida 21-3 (as a 6.5-point underdog) and at home vs. Mississippi State 31-13 (as a 7.5-point underdog). Tigers have been held to 13 points or less in six of their last eight games overall, and in all but one of their conference games (scored 24 points vs a bad South Carolina team). Nothing on Tennessee's schedule either before or after this game to take any focus away from the task at hand, and without having much success against an underrated Tennessee rush defense (held Alabama to just 117 yards on 42 carries), they have no chance of putting up any big numbers on the scoreboard. Tennessee wins this one in a blowout! 20* SEC Game of the Month on Tennessee.

20* Play on Mississippi (-6.5). The linesmaker is begging for LSU action with this pointspread - knowing full well that the general public will believe LSU is "too good" to lose three games in a row. The truth is LSU has been overrated all season long - not in terms of their ranking which was justified while unbeaten - but rather in terms of the Tigers perception of being one of the best teams in the country. LSU's defense was exposed vs. Alabama two weeks ago and then really exposed last week against Arkansas - giving up 250+ rushing yards in each defeat. And the secondary is where LSU is really vulnerable, so we expect the Rebels to be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air against a downtrodden Tigers team here on their home field. The other side of the ball is where we really think Ole' Miss has the edge, as the Rebels are stout against the run but weak against the pass. LSU doesn't have a credible passing threat and is extremely dependent on their running game offensively. Ole' Miss is perfectly built for this type of opponent, and we'll lay the points with confidence expecting a suddenly struggling LSU team to fall behind early and be ill-equipped to play catch up. Rebels win this one going away as LSU falls to 0-7 ATS on the road following a home game. 20* CFB Trap Game of the Month on Mississippi.

25* Play on USC (+4.5). After a slow start to the season, Oregon has come on strong of late winning four straight - three in the role of underdog - including a surprising outright road win at Stanford last week. That sets up a huge letdown spot for the Ducks this week, and we'll back visiting USC to not only cover this pointspread, but win by a convincing margin. Not only is Oregon in an obvious letdown spot following that upset win against the Cardinal, but they face a completely different kind of team this week in USC. Not only are the Trojans great at stopping the run (held three of four teams under 100 yards since the head coaching change), but that will force Oregon to throw the ball much more than they are comfortable with, which has been the weakness of this Ducks offense. On the other side of the ball, Stanford wasn't able to take advantage of a very weak Oregon secondary that has given up 300+ passing yards on six different occasions, but USC is more than capable of exploiting that weakness. Ducks aren't very good at stopping the run, either, and while USC will run the ball to keep the secondary honest, they will do most of their damage through the air. This line is a huge overreaction to last week's results - not only Oregon's win vs. Stanford but also a close margin of victory by the Trojans over Colorado. We didn't think USC would get caught looking ahead to this week but that turned out to be the case. No looking ahead this week, and USC matches up extremely favorably on both sides of the ball. Oregon lost the battle in total yardage last week but won the turnover battle to win the game. They can't count on that this week as the better team wins! 25* CFB "King's Ransom" Play on USC.

20* Play on Central Michigan (-10.5). The Golden Flashes of Kent State are coming off a 27-0 blowout loss at the hands of Ohio University last week - their second shutout loss in their last three games overall. We'll fade Kent State this Wednesday expecting another blowout loss against a Central Michigan team that is looking to become bowl eligible and has shown some fight over the last several weeks. Central Michigan's 4-2 record the last six weeks is rather impressive - including a perfect 3-0 record as a favorite as well as an outright home win against a good Northern Illinois team. And their two losses not only came against good competition (Western Michigan and Toledo) - but more importantly by close margins - falling by just two points at Western Michigan and by five points against Toledo. Now they face a Kent State team that has absolutely nothing to play for - already eliminated from bowl contention - and a team that has little offensive punch both in rushing and passing. Kent State hasn't scored at least 20 points since the first weekend of October, and is averaging less than 8 points per game in their last five. Golden Flashes unqualified to stop either the run or pass against Central Michigan, who will use a pass-heavy offense in this game which we believe will lead to a huge winning margin. Home field advantage doesn't mean much to Kent State, who have covered the spread just once on this field all season. Central Michigan is 8-2 against the spread on the year, and they add to that mark with a convincing win and cover Wednesday night! 20* CFB Wednesday Night Showdown Play on Central Michigan.

20* Play on Bowling Green (-7). Two of the best teams in MAC meet up on Tuesday night as Toledo takes on rival Bowling Green. We backed both of these teams last week in their respective wins and ATS covers, and we'll back the Falcons to come through tonight with a big win. Interesting line put forth by the linesmaker and we view this pointspread as a "trap" looking for heavy action on Toledo - who had been ranked in the Top 25 just a few weeks ago. We are going the other way, however, expecting the matchup of Bowling Green's passing game against a weak Toledo secondary to be the difference. Both of these teams employ a duel-threat offense with legitimate rushing and passing threats, but we view BG's offense as more formidable - especially through the air. Home field advantage for the Falcons is a big edge - noting Akron scores five points fewer on the road than their season average (down to 30 ppg) while Bowling Green puts up 10.5 more ppg here at home (up to 56 ppg). And while we concede the fact that the Rockets will score here, the up-tempo offense of the Falcons will lead to more possessions (and therefore a better chance to cover this number) and the more possessions there are, the more it plays into Bowling Green's favor. Falcons are a profitable 8-2 against the spread on the season, including a perfect 4-0 against the number here at home. Passing game leads BG to another win and cover Tuesday night! 20* CFB Tuesday "Watch Party" Play on Bowling Green.

25* Play on Oklahoma (+2.5). We've been waiting all season for this matchup and we'll back the Sooners to upset Baylor in a surprisingly easy margin of victory on the road as our 25* Big 12 Game of the Year. This has nothing to do with Baylor's quarterbacking situation, in fact the Bears didn't seem to miss a beat with their freshman QB after Seth Russell was lost for the year. Instead, this has everything to do with Baylor's defense (or lack of, rather) and their ridiculous schedule, which has them wildly unprepared for this tough stretch of games against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and TCU over the next three weeks. Once again the Bears scheduled the weakest competition they could find - lining up as 33+ point favorites in non-conference games vs. SMU, Lamar, and Rice. Not only does that lack of competition hinder this team in terms of preparation, but it also hurts any chances of them being included in the CFP Top 4 if they don't come out of the Big 12 undefeated. With the way the Big 12 scheduled their games this year, they have not faced any of the other three titans in the conference but already have proved to be ineffective defensively against average and below average competition. The only credible offense they have faced all season was Texas Tech, and while the Red Raiders are similar to Baylor in that they are all offense with no defense, Texas Tech still put up 636 yards of total offense. Baylor was very fortunate to force four turnovers or else they could have been in real danger of losing that game outright. Which brings us to Oklahoma - a team that is clicking on all cylinders offensively (52+ points scored in each of their last four games) and has a true balanced rush-to-pass offense, but more importantly is the superior defensive team in this matchup. Sooners may finish this game without having their punter take the field a single time, and we don't think Baylor is anywhere close to as reliable against the Sooners defense to keep up with the scoring. Kansas State stopped Baylor's running game last week and lost by a single touchdown - holding Baylor to a season-low 31 points scored. If the Wildcats had any passing game at all they certainly would have won that game outright. This line also points to an Oklahoma win, with Baylor a small favorite at home which would mean they would be an underdog on the road (and perhaps even on a true neutral field). Sooners not only win this game outright, they win big! 25* CFB Big 12 Game of the Year on Oklahoma.

20* Play on Memphis (+7). We are a perfect 4-0 against the spread in games involving the Houston Cougars this year, and our formula for success has been rather simple - back them in games against poor passing offenses and fade them against teams that can pass well. Memphis is easily the best offense Houston will face this season, and with 352 of the Tigers 547 total yards per game average coming through the air, we not only expect Memphis to cover this generous number but to win this game outright on the road. Tigers were in an awful spot last week, caught in an obvious lookahead spot with this game on deck while having to play a triple-option Navy offense. That combination led to Memphis losing their first game of the season. In terms of this week, that loss helps us tremendously as it not only puts the Tigers in an obvious "bounce-back" spot, but also gives us great line value with the pointspread as this line would have been much different. Tigers rush defense is underrated and their total stats are heavily influenced by the Navy game, but remember this defense held Ole' Miss to just 40 rushing yards on 24 carries. We do like this Houston team very much but this is simply a bad matchup for them. Their secondary is their weakness and Memphis is more than qualified to take advantage. 20* CFB Shocker of the Month on Memphis.

20* Play on Texas Tech (-5.5). Kansas State comes into this game losers of five straight, but with a strong finish on national television in a 7-pt loss and ATS cover vs. Baylor last week, the public perception of this team is far better than it should be. Texas Tech has also lost of late, falling Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and West Virginia. Red Raiders were competitive in those last two games - even having the lead for a majority of the game against the unbeaten Cowboys (not to mention they nearly upset TCU here at home). And while both of these teams have much to be desired in terms of defense, we give Texas Tech a massive edge in offense and we look for them to win this game by a blowout margin. Not only do the Red Raiders have the added edge of playing at home in this matchup, but they are also one win away from securing bowl eligibility - which is a motivational factor we seek out at this time of the year. Texas Tech puts up nearly 400 yards passing every time out (392 passing ypg on the season) and goes up against a Kansas State secondary that has been torched against every good passing offense they've faced so far this season. Kansas State can't match that type of production and has been held to under 175 yards passing in each of their last four games. Wildcats will have some success on the ground here, but can't come close to matching the Red Raiders in terms of points scored and we look for this one to get out of hand in the second half. Home side pulls away to a blowout win and cover as Texas Tech moves to a perfect 7-0 against the spread following back-to-back conference losses! 20* CFB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Texas Tech.

20* Play on Mississippi State (+8). Great spot to fade Alabama coming off their biggest win of the season over #2 LSU at home, but are now in an obvious letdown spot following that big win while also having to play on the road and against a team that matches up pretty well against the Tide. Alabama is built to stop the run defensively, which worked out great last week - but they are beatable in the secondary as Ole' Miss proved in Alabama's lone defeat of the season. We do believe Alabama is the best team in the SEC, however, we do not believe the Crimson Tide are worthy of their current #2 ranking and are getting far too much credit from both the pollsters and linesmakers. Regular clients already know that we're not big on Mississippi State, but their credible passing threat and ability to rush the football is the exact kind of offense needed to beat the Tide. The timing couldn't be any more perfect, either, with Alabama's ascension in the polls combined with the statement win vs. LSU, the general public now believes Alabama to be unbeatable. Remember, Alabama's offense is nothing like the teams from the recent past, and they have yet to record a single game of 300+ passing yards against a Power 5 opponent this year. In fact, had Texas A&M not committed four turnovers, Alabama would have been in real danger of losing that game outright as they were out-passed 284-138 in that game. We'll grab the generous points as insurance, but an outright Bulldogs win this Saturday wouldn't surprise us in the least. 20* CFB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Mississippi State.

20* Play on Oklahoma State (-14). This is admittedly a horrible spot for the Cowboys - fresh off their upset home win against TCU last week and right before tough games against Baylor and Oklahoma. We actually looked at this game expecting to fade Oklahoma State in this motivational trap game, but after looking at all the numbers, we're convinced Oklahoma State will win this game easily and we'll lay the points with them on the road at Iowa State. We just don't see anyway Iowa State is going to stop the Cowboys offense even if Oklahoma State has a less-than-average showing. In the four games against the best offenses the Big 12 has to offer (Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma) - and Oklahoma State certainly belongs in that group - Iowa State has given up 45, 45, 52, and 66 points. They are horrible at stopping both the run and the pass, and even when OSU inevitably gets a lead and want to run out the clock we still don't think Iowa State can stop them. Cowboys averaging 20 more ppg scored both on the season overall as well as in conference play compared to the Cyclones, and home field advantage doesn't mean much to Iowa State after already suffering two 14+ point losses this year. Oklahoma State is simply the superior team on both sides of the ball and are hitting their peak in terms of confidence. Everything statistically points to a blowout and we'll back them to win big - even in a motivational trap spot. 20* CFB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Oklahoma State.

20* Play on USC (-16). Trojans turned their season around with that big upset home win against Utah a few weeks back (Utes were unbeaten and ranked #3 at the time), which sparked a 3-0 winning run. In recent years this would be a trap game with Oregon on deck, but with USC already suffering three losses on the year and the Ducks going through a down year, we think if USC is going to get caught looking ahead at all the rest of this season it will be prior to the UCLA rivalry game. Colorado is overmatched on both sides of the ball, and while the linemaker has tried to make this line high enough to make the points look attractive, we're just not buying the Buffaloes putting up a fight on Friday night. Colorado is a dismal 1-5 in Pac 12 play - beating only lowly Oregon State, and they have not been competitive in those five losses covering the pointspread only once. In fact, in all five of those Pac 12 losses Colorado has allowed at least 35 points. USC has beat Colorado by this number in each of the last five meetings, and all the statistical indicators point to another blowout win and cover by the Trojans this time around. 20* CFB Friday Night Showdown Play on USC.

20* Play on Virginia Tech (+3.5). Hokies are a much different team than their record suggests now that quarterback Michael Brewer is back under center (was hurt in their season opener against Ohio State). Virginia Tech took Duke to four overtime periods before falling by two points, and then beat up a good Boston College defense to the tune of 26 points scored in a 16-point win and cover. That 26 points scored against BC was the second-highest point total the Golden Eagles have allowed this season behind only #1 Clemson. Love the Hokies getting points on Thursday night as we believe they win this game outright with surprising ease. Yellow Jackets have basically given up on this season, losing six of their last seven games overall with four of those losses coming while listed as the favorite. The only win they do have in that stretch came when they got up for a big-named Florida State team, and they needed a miracle finish to win that one. VT's balanced offense now that Brewer is back is perfect for a bad Georgia Tech defense lacking confidence, and we expect the Hokies to be able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. The road team has covered the spread five consecutive times in this series, and with this line not at all representing the current state of the Hokies team, we'll grab the points as insurance looking for an outright victory! 20* CFB Thursday Night Thunder Play on Virginia Tech.

20* Play on Bowling Green (-3). Falcons offense has been unstoppable all season long - even in their losses against Tennessee (30 points scored, 433 yards passing) and Memphis (41 points scored, 443 yards passing) - and we expect their aerial assault to lead them to another win and cover Wednesday night at Western Michigan. Bowling Green has covered the spread in seven of their eight games this season, and their offense seems to be getting better every week scoring 48+ points in each of their last four games (62 points scored twice in that span). Western Michigan will also score some points here, but not at the pace of the Falcons who average a full 8 ppg more than the Broncos and over 100 total yards per game. Broncos defense is pretty good at stopping the run, but they won't see much of that here as the Falcons offense has put up at least 399 passing yards in all but one of their games this season. BG is a perfect 11-0 against the spread after a win by at least 21 points, and in a matchup that will be decided by the better offense laying the small number with the Falcons is the only way to go. 20* CFB Wednesday "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Bowling Green.

20* Play on Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan Over (75.5). In a continuation of our play backing Bowling Green against the pointspread, we also think this game will fly over this high total. Falcons are good to score 50 points by themselves, and we really only need about 30 points from the Broncos to hit this number. Not only do we think Western Michigan will hit 30, but surpass that number with ease. While primarily a running team, they can also pass very well posting 300+ passing yards on four occasions. Add in BG's quick tempo and expected early scores, and we expect WM to go to the pass more often - especially against a BG defense with many problems in their secondary. Again, Western Michigan's passing game is not on par with Bowling Green, but they do more than their part hitting this number and a score in the 90's wouldn't be a surprise. 20* CFB Wednesday "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan Over.

20* Play on Northern Illinois (-6). We backed Northern Illinois last week in their outright road win at Toledo, and even when starting quarterback Drew Hare exited the game with an injury (he's now out of the season), we still liked our chances as UNI figured out how to slow down the Rockets offense. Normally a big win like that would result in an obvious letdown spot the following game, but by losing their quarterback for the rest of season, we don't think Northern Illinois will be on a big high entering this matchup with Buffalo. We also don't believe losing Hare at the QB position is going to hurt the Huskies in this matchup, as their powerful running game (200+ rushing yards in four of their last five games overall) is more than enough to cover this relatively small number against an inferior Bulls squad. Buffalo comes into this game off three consecutive victories against some of the weaker teams in the MAC, but now take a huge step up in class - especially for their defense. Bulls are 5-0 when they give up less than 150 yards rushing, and 0-4 when they give up 150 or more yards on the ground. With UNI putting up 207 rushing yards per game on the season (and much more in conference play) it's clear the Huskies will be able to take control of this game early. This line is much lower than it should be based on the QB injury, and letdown situation. We already addressed the QB situation and based on Northern Illinois going a perfect 12-0 ATS after an outright conference win as an underdog, we don't think that will be a factor either. 20* CFB Wednesday "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Northern Illinois.

20* Play on Toledo (-4). Last week we faded the Rockets in their outright loss in their outright home loss against Northern Illinois - the first loss Toledo has suffered this season. We'll back them this week, however, in an obvious "bounce-back" spot coming off that loss and they face a much better on-field matchup against Central Michigan. The fact that Toledo lost that game on national television has us getting great line value backing the Rockets, as that game was the first time many saw Toledo play all season. This is only the fourth road game of the season for the Rockets, but based on their outright road win at Arkansas and their two 14+ point wins at Ball State and Massachusetts, we don't believe Toledo is intimidated by opposing crowds. We faded Toledo last week due to UNI's duel-threat offense, and the Huskies ability to rush the football. Toledo did better than we expect stopping the Northern Illinois rushing attack - allowing just 124 yards on 54 carries. They face a much easier challenge this week vs. a Central Michigan offense that has been held to less than 100 yards rushing in six of their nine games this season. And in a battle of passing games, we'll take Toledo hands down as the better passing offense. Rockets put up 291 rushing yards last week as has rushed for at least 238 yards in every MAC game this season. Central Michigan has allowed 21 points or less in every win while allowing 24, 30, 30, and 41 points in their four losses. They simply don't have enough offensive firepower to keep up elite scoring teams and Toledo certainly qualifies as such. Rockets shake off last week's disappointing loss with an easy win and cover Tuesday! 20* CFB Tuesday "Watch Party" Play on Toledo.

25* Play on LSU vs. Alabama Under (48). The two best teams in the SEC meet up this Saturday night when #2 LSU takes on #4 Alabama. Everyone screaming SEC bias was given a ton of ammunition for their argument when both of these teams debuted in the Top 4 of Tuesday's first CFP Rankings, with the Crimson Tide being ranked higher than several undefeated teams. We do believe both of these teams are overrated, and the SEC as a whole is overrated - however we also think this is a down year across the board in College Football. Alabama's lone defeat came at home against Ole' Miss in a game the Tide couldn't hold on to the ball - committing five turnovers in the six-point loss. That loss does hurt Alabama's resume, but they should be more concerned about their passing game which has only put up 201 ypg in their last five games overall. And that bring us to our play on the Under in this game, with both of these teams playing right into the strength of their opponents defense. LSU and Alabama and almost entirely dependent on their running games offensively, and both teams have defenses that are built to stop the run. Without a credible passing threat, these defenses will sell out to stop the run and we don't see either team scoring more than 20 points in this game. Additionally, with both teams rushing at high frequency that leads to a slower game pace and the game clock continuously moving, which in turn leads to fewer possessions for both teams. Neither side wants to commit the costly turnover that eventually costs them the outright win, so we expect very conservative play-calling early with field position being the main concern for both head coaches. Last year, Alabama won 20-13 - falling 13 points shy of the posted total. We look for a similar final score this time around and we'll back the Under at our highest 25* rating! 25* SEC Total of the Year on LSU vs. Alabama Under.

20* Play on Michigan State (-5.5). Spartans need to start piling up the style points after debuting at #7 in the inaugural CFP Rankings - behind a pair of one-loss teams (Alabama and Notre Dame). This road game at Nebraska is the perfect opponent to do just that - facing a Cornhuskers defense that just gave up 55 points last week in an outright loss against a bad Purdue team. Not only did that loss drop Nebraska to 1-4 in their last five games overall, but it also likely cost them a bowl berth as they need to win out their last three games - two coming against undefeated and Top Ten foes Iowa and this Michigan State squad. Nebraska has lost all confidence and wasn't all that great to being with - especially in their secondary where Michigan State can really take advantage. Spartans have been throwing the ball more of late putting up 325+ passing yards in each of their last three games. Two years ago MSU was a similarly-priced 5-point road favorite here in Nebraska and won by a comfortable 13-point margin. We look for an even bigger margin of victory this time around, with the Cornhuskers basically giving up when the game is no longer in doubt. MSU pulls away in the second half en route to a blowout win and ATS cover as Nebraska falls to 0-8 ATS at home off back-to-back conference games! 20* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month Play on Michigan State.

20* Play on Cincinnati (+8.5). Houston has been extremely kind to us this season, as we are 3-0 ATS in game involving the Cougars - coming up short of the number against SMU and then blowing out both Tulane and UCF for easy ATS covers. We are going to fade Houston this week in the combination of the Cougars facing a tough matchup against a very underrated Cincinnati passing team, as well as the obvious lookahead spot with Memphis on deck. We love backing Houston against weak passing teams, but against good passing teams they tend to give up a ton of yards and points. Cincinnati has thrown for over 300 yards five times this season, with three games having 425+ passing yards (including their previous game vs. UCF). Also, the fact that the Bearcats have come close to knocking off both Temple and Memphis (lost by 8 and 7 points) shows that they are not intimidated by opposing teams records or rankings. On their home field we expect the Cougars to win this game outright (although a Cincinnati upset wouldn't be a huge surprise), but by less than a touchdown as the Bearcats move to 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. conference opponents. 20* CFB "Triple-Dog Power Pack" Play on Cincinnati.

20* Play on Oklahoma State (+5). While TCU and Baylor are still considered the teams to beat in the Big 12, Oklahoma State continues to fly under the radar despite staying unbeaten to this point. Not only do we believe the Cowboys have an excellent probability of cover the spread in this game, but we also believe they have a pretty good chance of winning this game outright. The combination of TCU's poor secondary and their suspect road play this season should have TCU supporters scared out of their minds for this matchup. Horned Frogs by all rights should have lost at Texas Tech and nearly lost at Kansas State. Oklahoma State survived their lookahead spot by coming back and putting up 70 points on the road against the Red Raiders, and that passing attack should give TCU fits in this game. Not much defense on either side in this matchup, which is why the linesmaker put out a total pushing 80 for the opening number. With both offenses more than capable of scoring at will, there's every reason to take the points with the home side here, and we'll back the Cowboys expecting an outright upset victory as they move to 8-0 ATS after a combined score of 70+ points in their previous game! 20* CFB "Triple-Dog Power Pack" Play on Oklahoma State.

20* Play on Florida State (+12.5). We are not as impressed as other with Clemson, who took the #1 spot in the new CFP rankings released this Tuesday. Tigers signature win this season came at home against Notre Dame - a two-point victory on their home field where Clemson finished with a 4-1 advantage in turnovers and won despite being on the wrong side of a 437-296 discrepancy in total yards (a difference of 141 total yards). Outside of that win, there isn't much on Clemson's docket that would be intimidating to opponents (their 58-0 win against free-falling Miami was impressive, but their 56-41 win the next game vs. NC State certainly was not). Florida State would still be undefeated if not for a fluke loss against Georgia Tech a few weeks back, and had that miracle finish not occurred this pointspread would look far different. As it stands, we are getting tremendous line value backing what we consider to be a team that is equal in terms of talent with the Tigers. Florida State running back Delvin Cook should play here, and while we don't expect a big game on the ground his presence will open up the secondary which is Clemson's biggest weakness. With this high pointspread FSU doesn't even need to come close to winning this game, and they certainly have enough firepower through the air to stay within single digits of the Tigers here. Remember, this Tigers team only beat Louisville by three points and is heavily dependent on their running game - the one area FSU is great at defending. We expect this game to stay close throughout the 60 points and for Florida State to finish within a score of the #1 team in the country! 20* CFB "Triple-Dog Power Pack" Play on Florida State.

20* Play on BYU (-12.5). The defensive statistics for San Jose State fail to show the huge matchup disadvantage they have in this game against BYU, but the linesmaker is fully aware and rightfully has the Cougars as a double-digit road favorite. We'll lay the points with BYU on Friday night as San Jose State faces the first true pass-first offense they will have seen all season long. Cougars have put up 300+ passing yards on five separate occasions this year, and while the Spartans are only allowing 122 passing yards per game (an incredible number at this point of the season) - that speaks volumes about the types of rush-heavy opponents they have faced this season. San Jose State completely unprepared for this style of offense they're about to face, and it has to be stated that the three times the Spartans took the field as an underdog this season, they lost all three games by 14+ points. San Jose State is in a pair of bad trends here, going 6-18 ATS following a bye week as well as 1-9 ATS in the underdog role. BYU's passing game dominant here, and San Jose State's rush defense isn't all the great either allowing the Cougars to build an early lead and then add to it as the game goes on. Cougars take this game by 20+ points! 20* CFB Friday Night Showdown Play on BYU.

20* Play on Mississippi State (-7.5). Regular clients already know that we believe Mississippi State has been vastly overrated all season long, however, we love their chances of scoring an easy win and cover against an awful Missouri team that simply can't do anything right offensively. Tigers haven't reached the end zone once in their last three games combined - scoring just 12 points total in that span - and that without having to play many of the top teams in the SEC. Last week Missouri lost 10-3 at Vanderbilt! And while Missouri is pretty good defensively, that defense faces it's toughest task so far this year against a duel-threat Bulldogs squad. Mississippi State isn't good enough to hang with the elite teams in the conference, but they have no problem running up the score against inferior foes, and this Missouri team certainly qualifies. Tigers also dealing with the season-ending suspension of quarterback Maty Mauk - the second disciplinary action taken against the starting QB this year. That type of turmoil leads to a lack of confidence on an already shaky Missouri scoring unit, and in a game where the Tigers will need to score points to keep up with the Bulldogs, we just don't see how they'll suddenly break out of their shell. We mentioned Missouri's good defense, however that has almost entirely come against run-heavy teams, and the passing game by Mississippi State will still be able to come up with big plays here. Bulldogs dominate this game from the beginning! 20* CFB Thursday "Watch Party" Play on Mississippi State.

20* Play on Baylor (-17). Bears couldn't have asked for a better time for a bye week, not only to mentally get over the loss of starting quarterback Seth Russell but also to have more time to get freshman Jarrett Stidham up to speed. Besides having that extra time in between games, there are two things going in Baylor's favor this matchup against Kansas State. First, they face a Wildcats defense that has been horrendous since the start of Big 12 play - allowing 42 ppg in their four Big 12 contests while also allowing 300+ passing yards in three of those four games (Texas went with a rush-heavy offensive attack in the Wildcats most recent game). Second, and perhaps most importantly, is that Baylor is a "system" offense, where the offense is not completely dependent on one player. We're not saying the loss of Russell isn't significant - is definitely is - but it also isn't the end of the dream for Baylor either. Kansas State was shutout 55-0 in their most recent home game (Oklahoma) and have absolutely no credible passing threat to make up a large deficit. Wildcats are only putting up 129 passing yards per game in conference play - and just 152 passing yards in their last two games combined. Baylor really is a running team first - throwing over the top after establishing the run - and Kansas State hasn't been able to stop anybody on the ground. That running game will take the pressure off the young freshman and this line is a huge overreaction to the loss of one player. Baylor wins this one in a blowout! 20* CFB Thursday Night Thunder Play on Baylor.

20* Play on Northern Illinois (+8). Toledo comes into this Tuesday night showdown against Northern Illinois with a huge target on their back, maintaining their unbeaten record while slowly climbing in the Top 25. And while the Rockets very well may win this game outright on their home field, we believe this Northern Illinois team will give them their toughest game so far this season, and we'll gladly take the generous points with the visitor. Huskies are no pushover as evidenced by their seven-point loss (and easy ATS cover) on the road at Ohio State earlier this year. The rush-heavy offensive scheme of Northern Illinois combined with their better-than-average rush defense presents some matchup problems for Toledo on both sides of the ball, and while we give Toledo the edge in passing for this matchup we don't see that translating into a blowout victory. Rockets are coming off their easiest stretch of their schedule which saw them listed as favorite of more than two touchdowns in each of their last three games. UNI is not another MAC team the Rockets will be able to beat up on, and if UNI can establish their running game early then the Huskies should be able to stay within an arms length of the Rockets throughout the entire 60 minutes. Northern Illinois knows how to beat this Toledo team and have won the last five meetings outright. Again, Toledo at home could take this game outright, but not by more than one score. 20* CFB Tuesday "Watch Party" Play on Northern Illinois.

20* Play on Stanford (-10). Make it six consecutive SU and ATS wins for Stanford after their season-opening loss at Northwestern, and this Cardinal team is bringing up memories of last year's Ohio State team. Stanford's power-running offense can't be stopped in Pac 12 play and is supplemented by an underrated defense that has held opponents to just 20.6 ppg on the season. This showdown vs. Washington State is a classic rush vs. pass matchup - one that we think heavily favors the visitor. Stanford's running game goes up against a Cougars stop unit that gave up 410 rushing yards vs. Oregon a few weeks back, and then 218 and 176 yards in their next two games heading into this weekend. Full confidence in Stanford to exploit that matchup and not only move the ball and score, but also keep their defense rested in the process. On the other side of the ball, WSU's passing game is very formidable, but Stanford has been great at not giving up the big play. Only one foe has reached at least 300 yards passing all season vs. the Cardinal, with four of the seven opponents being held under 200 yards passing. Stanford won this game by 17 points last year, and in our opinion is a much better team right now than at any point last season. Throw in Stanford's perfect 7-0 ATS mark as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points and we look for the Cardinal's running game to lead Stanford to an easy win and cover! 20* CFB "Late Night Bailout" Play on Stanford.

20* Play on Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Over (78.5). The linesmaker is having a tough time figuring out what to do with the over/under on games involving Texas Tech. On one hand, they are trying to avoid putting up a ridiculously high total. On the other hand, the Red Raiders fast and formidable passing offense combined with one of the worst defenses in the country has led to a combined score of 89 points or higher six times already this season. In fact, even if Texas Tech just hits their average in points scored and allowed, the 47 ppg scored and 40 ppg against adds up to a whopping 87 point total! For this game we add in a potent Oklahoma State offense that has already surpassed 400 yards passing twice this season and has a great chance at setting a new season-high in passing yardage in this game. This total is not nearly high enough to scare us away, and while this total is high when compared to the average over/under throughout college football, all the numbers and matchups point to this game finishing right around the century mark! 20* CFB October Total of the Month on Oklahoma State vs. Texas Tech Over.

25* Play on USC (-3.5). Trojans came through for us last week in a statement 42-24 win against Utah - a game USC was winning by a comfortable 25-point margin late in the game. Not only did the Trojans easily upset the #3 team in the country, but going forward that win should now boost the confidence of this team that has had to deal with a ton of turmoil, including the dismissal of their head coach a few weeks back. We look for the Trojans to keep on rolling and we'll back them at our highest 25* rating for the second week in a row to win by a blowout margin - this time on the road against Cal. Golden Bears climbed into the rankings after a perfect 5-0 start, but when the competition became tougher they have crumbled under the pressure. Cal enters this weekend riding a two-game losing streak, losing a tough game at Utah and then getting blown out last week against UCLA. Bad matchup for Cal this week as their secondary has not been able to contain the the better passing teams they have faced, already allowing 360+ passing yards three times this season with UCLA's 399 yards passing last week being their season-worst. USC is a very formidable passing offense, putting up 320+ passing yards five times already this season. And while Cal's passing offense is also formidable, USC is much more prepared to slow them down than the Cal defense, as the Trojans have held every opponent to under 280 yards passing this season. Obvious defensive edge goes to the visitor and USC's favorable matchup in the passing game is more than enough for the Trojans to continue their surge! 25* CFB "Black Reign" Play on USC.