20* Play on Miami (-6). After winning the first two games at home by comfortable double-digit margins, the Miami Heat went 0-2 in Charlotte and return back home with this series knotted up at 2-2. Charlotte didn't do anything great offensively in those two home victories - in fact they were held to 40% shooting or less in both of those wins - and they haven't shot better than 43% in any of the first four games. It's was Miami's offense that struggled on the road, shooting under 40% in both games while failing to break 90 points in either defeat. We don't think that trend will continue now that they are back home where they put up 123 and 115 points in the first two games, and while Charlotte has been a formidable opponent on their home floor, they are a poor 18-25 straight up away from home this season (including playoffs) while allowing 103 ppg. Heat are 9-1 ATS at home following a close loss by 6 points or less, and the home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS so far in this series. This line is not reflective of the way both of these teams have played in Miami so far, and we'll lay the reasonable number as Miami's shooting returns to normal form in another comfortable home win and cover! 20* NBA "Watch Party" Play on Miami.

25* Play on Oklahoma City (-14.5). We backed the Thunder at our highest 25* rating on Saturday, and we'll come right back with them once again at our 25* rating to close out the Mavs with their fourth blowout victory of this series. There is nothing more demoralizing then losing back-to-back home games in a playoff series, and Dallas didn't just lose - they were blown out by a combined 40 points in those two losses. That doesn't even include the 38-point beatdown in Game One, so after accounting for their one-point win when Kevin Durant had one of the worst shooting efforts in the league over the last decade, the Thunder is still averaging +19 ppg in this series. OKC goes back home looking to close out a wounded Mavericks side that has seen Dirk Nowitzki and Derron Williams take the court at far less than 100%. Dirk will play here, but Williams will not. Dallas has proven unable to slow down the Thunder offense (outside of that Game Two disaster, of course) as OKC has put up 108, 119 and 131 points in their three victories. Thunder have been able to dictate game pace, and they are going even faster than they had in the regular season which puts Dallas at an even bigger disadvantage with all of their injury concerns. No reason to expect anything less than another blowout tonight as Dallas has now lost all motivation after those two home losses with no realistic shot of winning this series anymore. Not scared off with this big number noting the Thunder have covered the spread in all three victories, and they cover this one with a monster second half tonight! 25* NBA "Black Reign" Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on LA Clippers (-1.5). Oddsmakers are calling for a close game tonight as Portland is a slim home underdog. That line is based almost entirely on Portland's recent home play, going 18-3 straight up in their last 21 home games and 28-13 straight up at home overall this season. The problem with that line of thinking is that it completely ignores what has happened in the first two games of this series. Clippers didn't just hold serve on their home court in Games One and Two - they completely demolished the Blazers in lopsided blowouts of 20 and 21 points while holding Portland to under 40% shooting in both games. Blazers don't have history on their side as the previous two seasons saw them lose each of their first three games in their playoff series, and while some are pointing towards their home record, it's worth noting the Clippers won here by a comfortable 11-point margin the last time they visited Portland (back in January when they easily covered the spread as 3.5-point road favorites). LA was far better shooting the ball than the Blazers in the first two games, but were also much better rebounding and in free throw attempts - two stats that tend to "travel" on the road. LA is a profitable 12-3 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less, and we love everything we're seeing from them on the defensive end of the court. Clippers don't get much press out West as the Warriors, Spurs, and Thunder receive the bulk of the attention, but LA has been playing pretty well down the stretch and especially well in this series. Clippers continue to frustrate Portland and win this game by a comfortable margin! 20* NBA "Late Night Bailout" Play on LA Clippers.

25* Play on Oklahoma City (-9). We backed the Thunder in their Game Three blowout road win at Dallas, but we were still surprised by the margin of victory. OKC was due for a "bounce-back" effort after laying an egg in their outright Game Two home loss (Kevin Durant was due for a big game in particular), and they delivered with a resounding 131-102 landslide victory. That's two complete blowouts by the Thunder in the first three games of this series (also won by 38 points in Game One), and while the Mavs were able to come back after that first lopsided loss with a stunning upset, we don't believe they'll catch Oklahoma City off guard this time around. Dirk Nowitzki is still playing with a hurt right knee, and Deron Williams didn't play at all in Game two nursing a hernia that might keep him out of this game as well. If Williams does play, he won't be at 100%, and Dallas is running out of offensive play makers while facing one of the elite scoring offenses in the league. It's not just the shooting that is leading OKC to victory - they are +26 in rebounds and now have the lower seed lacking confidence. Don't believe Kevin Durant is going to go ice cold again, and we simply don't see anyway Dallas can keep up with OKC's scoring with all of their injury concerns. Not calling for a 30+ point blowout tonight, but we do believe the Thunder win by another big margin, and we'll back them to cover this number at our highest 25* rating! 25* NBA "King's Ransom" Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (-8.5). After pulling an improbable upset in Game Two as a 14-point road underdog, the Dallas Mavericks are a 9-point home underdog in some spots in Game Three. Accounting for home court advantage, that is the equivalent of a 15-point line (higher than both Game 1 and Game 2), and the linesmakers are clearly begging for action on the home underdog tonight. We're not biting, and counting on an obvious bounce-back spot for Oklahoma City in general (and Kevin Durant in particular) along with a number of injuries to key Dallas players, we expect the Thunder to win this game in a blowout - much like they did in Game One. Durant finished just 7-33 shooting in that Game 2 loss, one of the worst shooting efforts in the NBA over the last 15 years (including regular season). That is clearly far from the norm for Durant, who has established himself as one of the top players in the league and has been extremely consistent with his jump shot in his career. We don't have any concerns of Durant's shot coming back, and Dallas should be even more concerned about their own roster. Dirk Nowitzki is listed as questionable, and while we do expect him to play here he's definitely not going to be 100% with a bruised knee. Both of the Mavericks starting guards are also banged up, and Derron Williams wasn't able to finish Game Two. Thunder had won the five previous matchups between both teams this season prior to Game Two, scoring at least 108 points in all five victories. Nothing like a dismal shooting effort and an embarrassing home loss to regain focus, and all statistical and motivational factors point towards a blowout win by the favorite tonight! 20* NBA Trap Game of the Month Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on Cleveland (-2). Pistons had almost everything go their way in Game One, including one of their better shooting efforts of the season and an great 15-29 shooting effort from distance, and they still came up five points short on the road in a 106-101 loss. Detroit was also good statistically in rebounds and turnovers (didn't win those stats but were not outplayed in those area either) so there isn't really a statistical area where they can hope to improve. We believe the Pistons missed their best opportunity to pull off an upset on the road in this series, and we look for Cleveland to deliver a dominant effort here in Game Two and win this one by a wide margin. The way the Cavs featured both Irving and Love into to offensive game plan not only took a ton of pressure off LeBron James to handle the scoring load (something Cleveland really missed in the NBA Finals last year when both those players were injured) and the Pistons never could make the proper adjustments on how to defend. Cleveland made the necessary defensive adjustments at halftime shutting down Morris, but the Pistons simply don't have the number of offensive options Cleveland has. Don't believe Detroit will be able to make 50%+ of their three-point shots again Wednesday night, and a focused Cavs team comes out and takes control early against an overmatched foe tonight! 20* NBA Playoffs "Watch Party" Play on Cleveland.

20* Play on Boston (+6.5). Not only do we believe the Celtics can cover this generous number, we give Boston a decent chance of winning this game outright and knotting up this series with Atlanta at 1-1. Celtics were ice cold to begin Game One, with the Hawks jumping out to a double-digit lead within the first seven minutes, and held an overwhelming 17-point lead at halftime. Celtics figured things out in the second half, however, scoring 31 points in the third quarter and 36 points in the fourth, but still couldn't overcome that awful first half effort and eventually fell by one point. With a better start in Game Two, Boston has every realistic chance to take this game outright, and if anything that second half of Game One actually gives Boston the edge in confidence going into tonight. Celtics finished just 36% from the floor but still managed to do very well in the stat sheet in terms of rebounds (including 15 offensive boards). Boston is 20-8 ATS playing with double-revenge, and if Atlanta can only win by a slim margin when Boston shoots 36%, then how do they expect to cover a big number if the Celtics put forth even an average shooting effort? C's keep this one close with a chance to steal the outright win late! 20* NBA "Vegas Inferno" Play on Boston.

20* Play on Toronto (-7). While we can't reveal the exact specifics of our "Secret System", we can tell you that it involves playing against certain teams after they win a playoff game on the road. For this game specifically, Indiana came in with the mindset looking to win one of the two games and go back home with home court advantage. They have already accomplished that goal, as a massive edge in three-point shooting led them to pull off the outright upset in Game One, winning 100-90 as a seven-point underdog. Raptors were ice cold from distance, going just 4-19 from beyond the arc while the Pacers connected on 11 of their 21 three-point attempts. That +21 points in three-pointers was really the only reason Indiana won, and a stat we don't believe they'll be able to dominate on a game-by-game basis. Going unnoticed in the loss is the fact that Toronto was +9 in free throw attempts and +16 in rebounds - even better considering those stats tend to favor the winning team. Free throw attempts and rebounds are more stable statistics, meaning they tend to stay true throughout a series more so than three-point shooting, which can change dramatically from one game to the next. Obvious motivational edge to the home town Raptors are are virtually in a "must-win" spot after already losing home court advantage, while Indiana is in the obvious letdown after already doing what they set out to do. Toronto laid an egg in the series opener, but they come back strong and win this one in a blowout! 20* NBA "Secret System" Play on Toronto.

20* Play on Toronto (-6.5). Even when Indiana caught fire down the final stretch of the regular season (won six of their last seven games), they ran into a buzz saw here in Toronto losing 111-98 as a five-point road favorite. While Golden State, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, and Cleveland has (rightfully) received the bulk of the national attention, Toronto enters the postseason wildly underrated, and they have quietly built a solid home court advantage going 32-9 straight up here at home this season. If that final regular season meeting was any indication, Toronto's home court advantage will prove to be too much for Indiana to overcome and we'll back Toronto to win by a comfortable margin in this series opener. Raptors went 3-1 both straight up and ATS vs. the Pacers in the regular season, winning and covering both games played here in Toronto. Raptors also built momentum with four straight victories to close the regular season, and their scoring average of 105 ppg in home games compared to Indiana's 102 ppg allowed on the road is the key matchup here. Raptors aren't just "happy to be here", and they make a statement Saturday afternoon! 20* NBA "Early Equation" Play on Toronto.

20* Play on LA Clippers (-11). One night after destroying the Lakers by 22 points, the LA Clippers take on their in-city rivals again tonight, this time with the Lakers as the host. Of course, there is absolutely no travels both teams share the Staples Center as their home court, and while there is a slight advantage now for the Lakers with their fans making up the majority of the crowd, there really isn't much of a difference on the court. Don't believe the Lakers will suddenly get 10+ points better in a 24-hour span, as they looked completely lost last night allowing the Clippers to shoot 51% from the field while making just 31% of their shot attempts themselves. An immediate revenge spot is usually seen as a good opportunity to back the team that lost the first leg of a back-to-back situation, but that theory really only applies if the teams are evenly matched or if the better team was upset in the first game. Lakers don't have any motivation to play here, already owning the worst record in the Western Conference, and their team shooting percentages of well under 40% in four of their last five games suggest this team has already mentally checked out and is now looking forward to the offseason. Clippers trying to build momentum towards the playoffs and have done well the last few weeks, going 6-1 straight up while putting up impressive numbers on both ends of the court. No reason to expect a result much different from last night, and we'll lay the points as the Lakers give little effort once again! 20* NBA "Blowout Demolition" Play on LA Clippers.

25* Play on Villanova (+3). Wildcats came through for us with a solid first half and a huge second half to blow out Oklahoma, which has pretty much put to rest their label of not being able to handle the pressure of the NCAA Tournament. Wins against the Sooners, as well as Kansas and Miami, give Villanova three very credible victories in this tournament, and we would argue those three opponents are better than anyone North Carolina has faced to this point. UNC has been brilliant offensively - especially from distance which has not been the norm this season. Even if we include their hot shooting in this tournament, the Tar Heels are only shooting a little under 32% from beyond the three-point arc on the season. And as hot as UNC has been offensively, they're not even as hot as Villanova has been, as the Wildcats have shot 58% or better in four of their last five games overall, including a crazy 71% shooting effort vs. Oklahoma on Saturday. We loved the ability of Villanova to guard the perimeter shooters of the Sooners, and while that matchup also applies here, it's the Wildcats size down in the paint that is going to give UNC the most trouble on both ends of the court. Villanova is 13-4 ATS against non-conference opponents this season, and they hoist the trophy tonight with an outright victory! 25* Play on Villanova.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (-3). This is the fourth meeting this season between the Thunder and Rockets, and offense has been the key factor in the first three matchups with both teams putting up at least 105 points in every game. Linesmakers expect another shootout this afternoon with an over/under hovering around 220, and while we don't have an opinion on the total, we do like Oklahoma City's chances of covering this small number. Thunder have been building momentum for the postseason over the last few weeks winning nine of their last ten games overall (the only loss occurred when Kevin Durant did not play versus Detroit). Even better than that 9-1 winning run is the fact that half of those ten games came on the road, and the Thunder put up no less than 111 points in all nine of those victories. With OKC's offense peaking and now facing a Houston defense that never really gelled all season long (allow 107 ppg), we believe the Thunder will be able to score at will this afternoon. Houston managed to cover the spread in the first three meetings this season, but now Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season and they are asked to cover the smallest line of the four in-season matchups vs. Houston. Rockets just 2-10 ATS at home playing with revenge, and they are unable to slow down this surging Thunder offense! 20* NBA "Watch Party" Play on Oklahoma City.

25* Play on Villanova (-2). Wildcats have been perfect in this NCAA Tournament going a perfect 4-0 ATS and covering each of those four games by a minimum of seven points each. Last weekend was highlighted by an outright victory over the #1 seeded team in this tournament, and that win vs. Kansas was no fluke as they took control of that contests vs. the Jayhawks and never let up. Villanova didn't have the type of shot shooting vs. Kansas as they did in their previous three games, but they showed they can win playing defense as well. In this matchup against a very good Oklahoma side, they won't face the type of defense that gave them some problems against Kansas, and they'll be able to resume their fast-paced, high-scoring game style which they worked to perfection all season long. Oklahoma is pretty much a one-man team and that type of game style doesn't work against the elite teams in the country. Villanova is good enough - especially on the perimeter - to shut down Oklahoma's outside shooting and we look for them to control this game from the outset. Sooners have the best player on the court but Villanova is the better overall team on both ends of the court. With this small line, we're basically picking the outright winner and the Wildcats prove their worth in their fifth consecutive ATS cover! 25* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Villanova.

20* Play on Nevada (-4). Home team split the first two games of this best-of-three series straight up, Nevada has clearly been the better team statistically in both of those games, and we'll back them to finish the job in style Friday night. Nevada has been perfect ATS in this tournament, going 5-0 against the spread including four straight games hitting 50% or more of their shot attempts leading up to this Game Three. Wolfpack shot 50% in their 86-83 loss at Morehead State, and duplicated that feat on Wednesday in their 77-68 win. Morehead State has been great at home this season but own a losing 9-11 mark on the road where their shooting drops to 41%. That trend was on display in their first two games, hitting 48% in their home win but just 38% in their road loss. And with Nevada winning by a comfortable 9-point margin despite turning the ball over 21 times (only 11 turnovers in Game One), Morehead State knows they missed their chance to steal one of these two road games for the Championship. We look for Nevada to win by an even bigger margin tonight, with another solid offensive effort and better ball control. Great effort for Morehead State to get here, but Nevada is the better team with the home court advantage that has proved unbeatable in this tournament! 20* CBI TMNT Championship Play on Nevada.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (-3.5). We backed the Thunder last night in their blowout win and cover at Toronto, and we'll back them to win big again tonight - this time on the road at Detroit. While the Pistons are certainly a step down in class compared to the Raptors, the pointspread is nearly identical to last night's game vs. Toronto since Oklahoma City plays this game without rest. That is the norm for the linesmaker, however, that rest factor really doesn't apply when our team held such a big lead entering the final quarter, and was able to rest key players down the stretch. Thunder were up by a huge 23-point margin entering the fourth quarter last night, and simply cruised during the final frame to the easy victory. Don't expect rest to be a factor here, and many of the same matchup advantages we gave to the Thunder last night also apply in this game. Like Toronto, Detroit likes to play at a fast tempo, which plays right into OKC's preferred style. And while Detroit on paper seems to be playing well right now winning five of their last six games overall, all six of those contests have come on their home floor and against many of the weaker teams in the league (Pistons were favored in all six of those games and favored by 6 or more points in four of those five victories). Thunder has dominated this series in recent years including a 16-point win earlier this season. Like last night, OKC has too much offense for Detroit to handle, and they win this game by a comfortable margin! 20* Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (-2.5). After blowing out San Antonio's "B" Team on Saturday (Spurs rested Parker, Leonard, and Aldridge), we'll back the Thunder on the road tonight as a very small favorite at Toronto. OKC has now won seven straight games overall, and have covered the spread in six of their last eight games, as they build momentum towards the playoffs. Toronto has been about 2 games behind Cleveland for what seems for the past few months, and their two recent losses against Boston and Houston may have sealed their fate as the #2 seed in the East. Raptors offense has cooled off in recent weeks, having just one game shooting 50% or better in their last 12. Offense is needed against an Oklahoma City team averaging 110 points per game, and while the home teams usually dictate game tempo, Toronto likes to play fast so we don't see Oklahoma City being taken out of their comfort zone here. Raptors were able to pull off an upset at Oklahoma City in the first week of the season (despite being out-shot 48% to 42%), but that will only add to the motivation of the visitor tonight. Too much offense from the Thunder as they pull away in the fourth quarter to an easy win and cover! 20* Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on Virginia (-7.5). Syracuse has had the easiest path to the Elite Eight, getting past #7 Dayton in the first round, then playing a pair of double-digit seeded teams coming off big upsets in #15 Middle Tennessee State and #11 Gonzaga. Huge step up in class for the Orange now, taking on a #1 seed Virginia team that has somehow been flying under the radar despite winning easily in all three of their game this tournament - wins by a combined 57 points. Cavaliers will face their toughest test offensively, and we don't believe they'll be in the neighborhood of their first three games in terms of shooting percentage (55%, 56%, 56%), but we do think this team is more than capable of handling Boeheim's famous zone defense and will again win by a comfortable margin. Virginia doesn't turn the ball over, and is very patient offensively with balanced scoring and having a number of shooters - all necessary to beat the Syracuse zone defense. Virginia won the lone in-season matchup this year by eight points (on their home court), but that final score wasn't indicative of how the game played out. Syracuse only shot 39% from the field while Virginia proved they could handle the zone, making 57% of their shot attempts. We don't trust Syracuse's offense which shot 43% from the field all season long, and 42% from the floor away from home. Virginia with all the momentum here and the confidence after their easy in-season victory, and they win this one big! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Virginia.

20* Play on Indiana (+5.5). For the first time in this tournament, things went according to play last night as all four top seeds (and favorite) were able to win by comfortable double-digit margins (also went a perfect 4-0 ATS). We don't believe that trend will continue on Friday night, and we look for an underrated Indiana Hoosiers team to upset the #1 seed North Carolina in this matchup. Hoosiers won the Big Ten Conference regular season but never really received much fanfare for that accomplishment. More importantly for this matchup, they bring a dynamic offense and an active rebounding attack (especially on the offensive glass) that can give North Carolina trouble. The Tar Heels are not an unbeatable team, but in a season that was really lacking a truly dominant school, UNC appears to be better than they actually are. We don't like UNC's perimeter shooting, and the Hoosiers excel in that area. In fact, Indiana is shooting over 50% from the floor on the season, and while North Carolina likes to take opponents out of their comfort zone by pushing the tempo, that fast game pace plays perfectly into what Indiana wants to do. Hoosiers took the "underdog" role to heart last weekend as they beat Kentucky by 6 points as a 3.5-point dog, and we expect a similar effort tonight in a hard fought game as the Hoosiers pull off the outright upset late! 20* CBB "Sweet 16 Shocker" Play on Indiana.

20* Play on Villanova (-4). Wildcats have been kind to us with easy ATS covers against both UNC Asheville and Iowa, winning those games outright by a combined 50 points and covering the spread on both contests by a combined 26.5 points. Linesmakers were way off in both of those games, and we feel they still aren't giving Villanova enough credit on Thursday night. Miami's final score against Wichita State was not indicative of how that game played out. Hurricanes jumped out to a 20-point lead very early in that game vs. the Shockers, but couldn't hold on as Wichita State fought all the way the back to take the lead late in the second half. Miami did have one final surge to pull away late, but they were out-played for the majority of the 40 minutes. Miami's style of play is to "out-score" the other team, which works well in the ACC but at this point of the tournament you need to play well on the other end of the court also. Don't have faith in the 'Canes ability to slow down a Villanova offense that is scoring 78 ppg on the season, and is peaking at the right time hitting 58% and 59% of their shot attempts in the first two rounds. Wildcats now 18-9 ATS vs. non-conference opponents, and we give them the decisive edge on the defensive end of the floor which ends up being the difference here. Villanova pulls away in the second half en route to their third consecutive decisive victory in this tournament! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Villanova.

20* Play on Cleveland (-11). Cavs in general, and LeBron James in particular, are getting into "playoff mode", and this is the perfect spot and opponent to back the Cavs as we fully expect the home side to win in an absolute blowout on Wednesday night. LeBron James has gone to his social media blackout early, which has been his customary routine to focus on basketball and not get caught up in all the off-court drama. LeBron went off for 33-11-11 his last time out, putting his money where his mouth is, and that type of mentality tends to spread to the rest of the team when the leader is talking the talk and walking the walk. Milwaukee is going to be like a deer in headlights (pun intended) here, as they are awful away from home to begin with going just 9-27 straight up while allowing 104 ppg. Bucks might be at the start of an extended losing skid, as they showed little effort in being out-rebounded by 30 in their last two games combined - a pair of losses despite the Bucks shooting well over 50% from the floor. That's exactly the type of stat sheet that reflects a team that is only concerned about scoring and nothing else (not defense, not rebounding). Cavs covered a similar 10.5-point number the last time these teams met up (also in Cleveland) winning by 15 points, and these two teams are further apart now than in that earlier matchup - especially in terms of focus and motivation. Cleveland wins this one in a huge blowout! 20* NBA "Blowout Demolition" Play on Cleveland.

20* Play on Oregon (-6.5). St. Joe's was one tenth of one second away from going to overtime, but lady luck was on their side as Cincinnati's game-tying dunk was ruled after the buzzer. That sets up a horrible matchup for St. Joe's in this second round, as the their style of trying to "out-score" their opponents while paying little attention to the defensive end of the court does not match up well against this Oregon Ducks team. That style of play suits them well in conference and against teams without much offensive fire power, but Oregon also loves to run and is scoring 79 ppg on 47% shooting. More importantly for this game, Oregon actually does play defense. Ducks allow 69 ppg which doesn't sound great, but in the context of a fast-paced game and in an offensive-minded conference, those defensive aren't too bad considering they only give up 42% shooting overall. Oregon clearly heard the whispers of them not being worthy of a #1 seed (we tend to agree with that argument) and came out ready to prove a point in their 39-point beat down against Holy Cross on Friday night. Any motivation Oregon had from feeling slighted will surely be intact for this game as well considering the lack of respect from the linesmaker, and we expect Oregon to play with pride as they win in another rout! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Oregon.

25* Play on Xavier (-4.5). We were impressed with the way Wisconsin played in the second half of conference play, staying under the radar despite picking up some big wins in the Big Ten Conference. But the Badgers hit a wall right at the end, losing by 11 points in their regular season finale at Purdue, and then falling by 12 points in an awful showing against a bad Nebraska team in the Big Ten Conference Tournament (as a 5.5-point favorite). We're not even sure they "won" on Friday, as Pittsburgh seemed to "lose" an ugly game that nobody seemed to want. Badgers finished that victory with just 47 points scored (won 47-43), shooting just 32% from the floor in one of the most boring NCAA Tournament games we have ever seen. It's not that we don't appreciate good defense, but the Badgers are playing with absolutely zero confidence offensively right now, and in a matchup against a very good offensive team like Xavier we don't give Wisconsin a chance to stay close to the Musketeers here. Longtime clients already know that we have been high on this Xavier team all season long, and we'll go to the well one more time backing the Musketeers to run right past the slumping Badgers. Xavier's win and cover on Friday night means they are now 22-8 ATS in NCAA Tournament games, and they play at a fast tempo that can really get Wisconsin out of their comfort zone. Badgers will no doubt try to slow this game down, but that only means the Badgers will have fewer chances to score in transition and we don't see them doing any damage in a half-court offense against an Xavier defense that is only allowing 41.5% shooting all season long, and even better 40.5% shooting away from home. Badgers lulled Pittsburgh to sleep on Friday, but can't keep up with the fast-paced Musketeers in this matchup! 25* CBB "King's Ransom" Play on Xavier.

20* Play on Villanova (-6.5). Wildcats came through for us on Friday when they blew out UNC Asheville by 30 points (as a 17.5-point favorite), and while the fact that Villanova beat an overmatched team isn't all that impressive, what is impressive is that fact that the Wildcats were able to stay focused and run up the score when so many other teams in this tournament have been unable to do so. Different kind of challenge for Villanova this time, as they face an Iowa team that at one point of the season was highly ranked, and the Wildcats won't be lured into thinking this game will be a cakewalk. We do, however, still expect Villanova to win this one big - not by 30 points, but by double-digits nonetheless. We were very curious to see how the Hawkeyes would come out and play after ending their regular season on a 1-5 SU and ATS losing skid (all five losses came outright as favorites) and then falling outright in their Big Ten Conference Tournament opener in an embarrassing loss (as a 10.5-point favorite) vs. Illinois. Iowa did advance past Temple, but they were far from impressive. Hawkeyes needed overtime after blowout a lead late in regulation, and finished on the wrong end of a 46% to 35% shooting discrepancy as well as -11 in rebounds. If not for a season-best 3 turnovers committed all game, the Hawkeyes would be sitting at home watching Villanova play on television. Temple has their issues offensively and Iowa was able to outlast the Owls. Villanova is a different animal all together and is a horrible matchup - especially in terms of scoring. Wildcats average 77 points per game and have scored 80+ in six of their last eight overall. Plus, Villanova is by far the better defensive team, so we give a sizeable edge to the favorite on both ends of the floor. Hawkeyes got away with playing with fire Friday night and survived - they don't against a much better team this Sunday! 20* CBB "Early Equation" Play on Villanova.

25* Play on Kansas (-8). Connecticut has to feel extremely fortunate to have made it this far, not only overcoming a nine-point deficit at halftime against Colorado but then hanging on to hold off the Buffaloes after they made a furious rally late in the game. Huskies finished 22-23 from the free throw line to win a game they should have lost by all accounts. Anything close to a similar overall effort against Kansas will certainly result in a blowout loss, and after watching Kansas play extremely focused in their 26-point thrashing of overmatched Austin Peay, we'll back the Jayhawks to win by a wide margin once again on Saturday night. Kansas was unbeatable in the second half of the season and have upped their winning streak to 15 games in a row. Ten of those 15 victories came against fellow NCAA Tournament teams, and they deserved to be the number one overall seeded team in this tournament. Huskies have good defensive numbers but we don't believe they'll be able to shut down a Kansas offense that is putting up 82 ppg on 50% shooting. Kansas already 9-2 ATS vs. non-conference foes this year and that streak continues as the Jayhawks win again by double-digits! 25* Tournament Favorite of the Year Play on Kansas.

20* Play on Duke (-6). Blue Devils got a huge break with Yale upsetting Baylor on Thursday. Not only is Yale a far better matchup for Duke on the court, but now the Blue Devils face an opponent that is in a massive "letdown" spot and an obvious "play-against" situation. This isn't the first time these teams have faced each other, as Duke won by a wide 81-61 margin on their home court back in late November, covering the spread as big 14.5-point chalk. Yale was held to 40% shooting in the loss, and the blue Devils finished with twice as many free throw attempts (24) than the Bulldogs (12). Yale out-shot Baylor 53% to 44% on Thursday, and also had a virtual 2:1 edge in free throw attempts over the Bears. Don't expect a repeat performance in those two offensive categories, and we expect this one to end up much in the same manner as the first matchup this season. Yale keeps it close early, but Duke pulls away late and covers this one with relative ease! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Duke.

20* Play on Wichita State (-2). Not falling for the linesmakers trap on Saturday, as they are begging for action on the Hurricanes having the #3 seed Miami listed as an underdog against #11 seed Wichita State. Shockers have already won twice this week, and in pretty convincing fashion. First, they handled Vanderbilt in one of the play-in games, beating the Commodores by a wide 20-point margin. More impressive was they way they dispatched Arizona on Thursday, controlling that game from the outset and winning by a comfortable 10-point margin despite shooting only 41% from the floor and making just 3 of their 20 three point shots. Shockers came in underrated thanks to their early exit from their conference tournament, but are playing like a top seeded team in terms of confidence. Miami did well in the ACC since they were one of a few good offensive teams, but they are not good defensively and this is where Wichita State has the big edge. Big edge to the Shocker in terms of defense and rebounding, and we look for Wichita State to once again advance in impressive fashion! 20* CBB "High Noon" Showdown Play on Wichita State.

25* Play on Notre Dame (-3.5). Wolverines (barely) came through for us on Wednesday night as they hung on late to get past a pesky Tulsa team - a game Michigan should have won by a comfortable margin. Michigan did not have good shooting night (especially from distance) and were repeatedly out-muscled in the paint, allowing Tulsa to get way too many layup attempts and offensive rebounds. We don't give the Wolverines a chance of getting past a much tougher Notre Dame side, and we'll back the Fighting Irish at our highest 25* rating to win this game by a big margin. Irish were embarrassed by North Carolina in the ACC Tournament after they got past Duke the day before, and that lopsided loss is likely the reason this line is so low. That game was not indicative of how Notre Dame has played this season, however, and we feel they match up extremely well against a Michigan team that doesn't like to play defense and is very dependent on their inconsistent outside shooting. Outside of their big upset win against Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan has had trouble against teams that are better than them, and this matchup certainly fits that description. With three quality wins against North Carolina, Louisville, and Duke in the last month and a half, the Irish have the confidence and we expect them to out-muscle the Wolverines all game long as they take this one by double-digits! 25* CBB "Black Reign" Play on Notre Dame.

20* Play on Xavier (-13). Musketeers would have had a legit argument for a #1 seed in this NCAA Tournament if they had won the Big East Tournament. As it stands, they are a #2 seed with a very easy matchup on Friday night against an untested Weber State squad. In the eyes of the linesmaker, Weber State's toughest game this season was on the road against South Dakota State - a game Weber State lost by 17 points. They were never listed higher than a six-point underdog all season long. That paints a clear picture of the type of schedule Weber State has played this season, and they still come into this game with three more losses than Xavier. Musketeers have not lost back-to-back games all season, and played up after a loss in their first four opportunities. Musketeers are very good offensively, and while both teams prefer to play at an up-tempo game pace, that just means more possessions and therefore more opportunities for our favorite to cover the spread. Musketeers traditionally do very well at the betting window in the NCAA Tournament going 21-8 against the spread. We look for that trend to continue as Xavier dominates this game from the outset, and wins this one by 20+ points! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Xavier.

20* Play on Villanova (-17.5). Nobody questions whether or not Villanova will beat UNC Asheville outright, the question is whether or not the Wildcats will run up the score. And based on the way Villanova blew out overmatched opponents over the course of the season (especially early in the year vs. unworthy non-conference foes), we think they will cover this big number with plenty of room to spare. Wildcats are coming off a loss in the Big East Championship Game, which right off the bat has them in a "play-on" spot as they are in the obvious bounce-back situation. More importantly, Villanova showed no mercy in beating seven opponents by at least 20 points - and that's just their games prior to January! UNC Asheville has played one legitimately tough opponent this season - that was on the road at Texas A&M - and they were blown out 75-47 (in a non-lined game). Wildcats have better scoring and shooting numbers both offensively and defensively, and that doesn't even account for the obvious strength of schedule difference. Wildcats 26-12 ATS vs. non-conference foes and that streak continues as they show no mercy in an absolute blowout in the first round! 20* CBB "Early Equation" Play on Villanova.

20* Play on Seton Hall (+1.5). Gonzaga is the type of team that garners a ton of attention from sports bettors who "check in" around the beginning of March but don't follow the regular season. Gonzaga has had tremendous success in this tournament - especially for a school out of a mid-major conference - but they have taken a step down this year. The Zags were never an underdog in non-conference play, but still struggled against the better teams they faced. They even lost two of three games against the only other good team in conference (St. Mary's), although they did beat the Gaels in their conference tournament championship game. Seton Hall has stayed under the radar, which is amazing considering they just beat Villanova and Xavier - two teams that had a legit claim to a #1 seed - in back-to-back games last week. We're thrilled Gonzaga is listed as the favorite (due almost entirely to public perception based on previous seasons), as we feel Seton Hall is easily the better team. Zags may look a bit better statistically, but that is heavily influenced by their much easier schedule. Seton Hall is playing with all the momentum and confidence in the world right now, and after beating the Musketeers and Wildcats last week, this Gonzaga team is a big step down in class. Seton Hall wins this one easily! 20* CBB "Upset Shocker" Play on Seton Hall.

25* Play on Providence (-2). Ninth-seeded Providence is the lower seed in this matchup with #8 USC, but the linesmaker has the Trojans listed as a small underdog. We agree with the linesmakers and believe Providence not only wins this game outright, but wins by a comfortable margin. USC rode a strong home court advantage through the better part of the season, but then collapsed late in losing seven of their last ten games outright to close the year. All seven of those losses came by a minimum of 7 points each, and four of their last five losses have come by a big double-digit margin. So now USC enters this tournament lacking any momentum, and they have not been a good team away from their home court anyway (just 5-10 straight up). Providence is confident on the road, going 10-6 straight up (11-5 ATS), and they have some momentum going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS down the stretch. USC likes to play at a fast tempo, but haven't been comfortable away from home where they actually give up more points than they score. Providence has no problem going fast, but the match we really like is on the defensive end of the court where Providence has a big on-court advantage. Providence has covered the pointspread in 13 of their last 17 tournament games, and that streak continues on Thursday as the Trojans lose outright! 25* CBB "King's Ransom" Play on Providence.

20* Play on Indiana (-12). Losing early in a conference tournament isn't always a bad thing. Indiana didn't need a strong run in the Big Ten Tournament to gain any momentum - they finished the regular season with the best in-conference record, beating out the likes of Michigan State, Maryland, and Purdue. And leaving the tournament early means the Hoosiers are well rested for this tournament, and despite being placed in a very tough bracket they do have a decent shot of making some noise. We look for Indiana to bounce back from that late Michigan defeat, and win by a blowout margin against an overmatched Tennessee Chattanooga side. While UT Chatt did have a great record, they simply didn't play the kind of competition that prepares a team for a tournament such as this, and especially an opponent of Indiana's caliber. Hoosiers are putting up 83 points per game while making over 50% of their shot attempts - numbers that are fantastic on their own, and even better when put in the context of a traditionally defensive-heavy Big Ten Conference. Chattanooga is simply over their heads in this matchup, and while they might stay close early, we look for Indiana to pull way ahead in the second half and cruise to a blowout win and cover! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Indiana.

20* Play on Michigan (-3.5). Wolverines have to be thrilled with their inclusion to the NCAA Tournament, and while we wouldn't have put them in, we do think Michigan did make a pretty good case for themselves in the Big Ten Tournament. Upsetting a very good Indiana team was likely what pushed them over the edge, and they take a decent amount of momentum into Wednesday night's matchup against Tulsa. Both of these teams have pretty similar statistics in terms of win/loss record and averaging ppg scoring both for and against, but those stats came in two completely different conferences. Michigan plays in the Big Ten which has far better competition, so those pretty equal statistics means Michigan is the better team. Losing by 22 points (as a favorite, no less) vs. Memphis is not the type of game that will have Tulsa brewing with confidence, and while they are just "happy to be here", Michigan clearly has bigger goals than playing in a play-in game. Wolverines prove they are the better team and are properly motivated with a strong showing on Wednesday night, covering this small number with ease! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Michigan.

20* Play on St. Mary's (-12). We thought St. Mary's got the raw end of the deal when they were left out of the NCAA Tournament. Teams that believed they were good enough but were eventually left out usually play either very well, or very poorly in this NIT setting. Teams can take the mindset of proving the selection committee wrong and stating their case with a long tournament run, or teams can feel sorry for themselves and play disinterested. We believe St. Mary's will be the former, and we also believe the linesmakers think the same way with this big line. In fact, we view this line as a "trap line", begging for action on the underdog. We won't bite, and look for St. Mary's to take control of this game early and cruise to a blowout win and cover. New Mexico State didn't see much in terms of quality competition (only 11 lined games all season), and in their few chances they looked completely overmatched. That includes a 30-point loss at Wichita State, an 18-point loss at New Mexico, and an outright loss (as a nine-point home favorite) vs. Wyoming. St. Mary's is a near-perfect 18-1 straight up here at home winning those games by an average of 19 points per game. No hope for New Mexico State who is woefully unprepared for this type of an opponent, and St. Mary's takes out their aggression from being left out of the NCAA Tournament on an overmatched New Mexico State foe as this one gets ugly in the second half! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on St. Mary's.

20* Play on Wichita State (-3.5). Shockers were held to 32% shooting in their upset loss against Northern Iowa in their conference tournament, but was still able to make it into the NCAA Tournament. We don't believe Wichita State was given a fair shake by the selection committee and shouldn't have to prove their worth in this play-in game. We also don't believe Wichita State's roster feels that way and look for the Shockers to come out and make a statement with a decisive victory on Tuesday night. No faith in Vanderbilt on the road as they are just 5-11 straight up (6-10 ATS) away from home this year, and four of those five road victories came in the role of the favorite (three of those five road wins as favorites of ten or more points). Wichita State is a dominant defensive team and can play both up-tempo as well as at a slow pace. No real on-court matchup advantage for Vanderbilt, who we consider to be an average team in a bad SEC Conference. Shockers take this one easily! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Wichita State.

20* Play on Ohio State (-5). Buckeyes never had a chance of making the NCAA Tournament and didn't have any right to. However, they could do well in this NIT Tournament if they are properly motivated, and we do like them to win big tonight in the opener. This is more of a play "against" Akron, who has been fantastic at home this season with a perfect 15-0 straight up record, but much different on the road where they are just 11-8 straight up. That includes five outright losses as favorites. Buckeyes were not good enough this year to beat the better teams in their conference, but when they played with confidence, they did very well (even upset Kentucky this season). Towards the end of the season, Ohio State seemed to take the court either extremely confident, or not confident whatsoever, depending on who they were playing. No reason for Ohio State to be lacking confidence here against a MAC school when the Buckeyes are 14-5 straight up here at home and don't have to worry about an opponent with any real dominant qualities. Buckeyes shoot better, defend better, and catch Akron in the right location. Buckeyes roll! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Ohio State.

20* Play on Kansas (-4). Back on January 25th, Kansas lost at Iowa State with a big game looming next against Kentucky. The Jayhawks won a hard-fought battle against the Wildcats, and never looked back, as that Kentucky victory propelled a 13-game winning streak, with Kansas going 10-3 at the betting window in the process. In the midst of that winning streak, the Jayhawks were able to avenge a road loss against this West Virginia team in a statement 10-point home victory versus the Mountaineers. We look for a similar result today as these two teams meet up in the Big 12 Championship Game, with Kansas cementing their standing as the team to beat in the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia was able to pull off the home upset thanks to 22 Kansas turnovers combined with 47 free throw attempts. WVU didn't shoot the ball well at all in that upset win, making just a 33% of their shot attempts and going just 3-12 from distance. Kansas cleaned up their ball handling and WVU wasn't getting the calls at the ridiculous rate as their home win when Kansas beat them in the rematch. Can't see WVU going to the line anywhere near 47 times here tonight, and the way Kansas is gaining confidence on a daily basis, this one has a good chance of getting out of hand early. Mountaineers don't have enough offensive firepower to keep up with a Kansas team that has shot 50% or better in eight of their last 12 games overall. 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Kansas.

20* Play on Virginia (-3). While Miami FL and Virginia have identical records the Cavaliers have been far more consistent as of late and we really like their chances of beating the Hurricanes by a surprisingly comfortable margin. We faded Miami last night, expecting them to win outright but not come close to covering as big favorites against Virginia Tech. Hokies came through for us in their 88-82 loss, a game Virginia Tech was able to cover despite being on the wrong end of a 57% to 49% shooting discrepancy. And speaks to the two problems of Miami - they never seem to do as well on the scoreboard as they should when looking at their in-game statistics, and they give up a far higher shooting percentage than other teams with similar overall elite straight up records. These two teams split their regular season matchups, with each side winning on their home court. Virginia won by 8 points on their home court, but Miami only won by 3 in their home victory - needing a 10-19 shooting effort from distance to do so. Both teams have similar offensive numbers but Virginia is easily the superior defensive side, allowing less than 60 ppg both overall this season as well as in conference. If anything, Miami has been getting worse defensively down the stretch (a sign of fatigue), and playing without rest will only make things worse on that end of the court. Unless Hurricanes shoot 50% or better from beyond the arc again, Virginia takes this one easily! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Virginia.

25* Play on Xavier (-5.5). Musketeers came through for us with a blowout 18-point win against Marquette last night, and we'll back them at our highest 25* rating tonight to in a quick turnaround spot for revenge against Seton Hall. Can't blame Xavier for coming out flat at Seton Hall two weeks ago - which was in what is pretty much the definition of a "letdown" spot after they upset the #1 team in the country - and more importantly - beat a Villanova team that has completely owned them in recent years. Xavier was held to 39% shooting while Seton Hall connected on half of their 58 shot attempts, but more importantly they were +19 in free throw attempts. That is a huge contrast to the first matchup when Xavier won by 8 points at home and won virtually every major statistic we care about. Musketeers rebounded fro that loss by shooting 53% in each of their next two games heading into tonight and won both of those games easily. No letdown spot tonight for Seton Hall to take advantage of, and if anything it's Xavier with the motivational edge looking to make up for that embarrassing showing two weeks ago. Xavier gets their revenge and wins this game in a blowout! 25* CBB Conference Tournament Game of the Year on Xavier.

20* Play on Maryland (-7.5). We do not like the way Maryland played down the stretch of the regular season and are currently not very high on the Terps, however, we like Nebraska even less and can only play against the Cornhuskers in a poor on-court matchup combined with an obvious "letdown" spot after upsetting Wisconsin yesterday. We were definitely surprised that Nebraska was able to get past the Badgers, however, Wisconsin beat themselves with an awful 30% shooting effort for the entire game. For all of Maryland's troubles, offense isn't one of them (they tend to disappear at the defensive end of the court when they are struggling) and we can't see any scenario where the Terps also suddenly go ice cold from the floor. While we can't rely on Maryland's defensive effort, this is not a problem against a team like Nebraska who doesn't really have a legitimate offensive threat. Nebraska was held to 62 points or less in each of their four games prior to their regular season finale against Rutgers (everybody runs up the score on Rutgers this year), and they put up 61 and 65 points in both games vs. Maryland this season. Coming back one day later after pulling a big upset is very hard - especially for a team that hasn't had many signature wins over the course of the regular season. The last time Nebraska was able to pull off an upset was when they won at Michigan State, but promptly came out and lost at home against Michigan by 13 points as a one-point favorite their next time out. Cornhuskers flat as Maryland advances to the next round easily! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Maryland.

20* Play on Michigan State (-13). Based on the pointspreads Michigan State was favored by when they played at home (-14.5) and at Columbus (-7), the linesmakers haven't really adjusted their opening line at all to compensate for how the Spartans crushed Ohio State in both meetings this year. The line also wasn't changed to account for the obvious rest advantage MSU has, as they were off yesterday while Ohio State needed to battle in order to get by Penn State, or even the obvious letdown spot as the Buckeyes came back to beat Penn State and give head coach Thad Matta his 20th win of the season - keeping his streak of at least 20 wins in every season of his career in tact. We love Michigan State in this game and see no reason why it won't play out exactly as the first two games did. Spartans won by 19 points on the road, having a +15% edge in shooting percentage and then won by 15 points at home (in a game that wasn't as close as the final score shows), going +20% in shooting. Buckeyes don't have a legitimate rim protector and tend to give up far too many layup attempts than a normal Ohio State defense from recent years. More importantly, they lack the start player that has been a staple of Thad Matta coached teams in recent years, and because of that they have not been able to hang with the elite teams in this conference. Buckeyes already accomplished what they wanted to do - get Matta his 20th win and now they can bow out and get ready for an NIT run. MSU advances with ease! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Michigan State.

20* Play on Purdue (-10.5). Linesmakers have set a trap line on Friday afternoon, begging for action on Illinois after the Illini upset Iowa yesterday. Purdue is a double-digit favorite, although they lost against Illinois in the only in-season meeting this year. We're not biting, and both of those reasons can easily be disregarded. As far as Illinois beating Iowa, we watched that entire game and the Hawkeyes never showed up to play. Iowa was really struggling down the stretch of the regular season and there wasn't necessarily anything Illinois did that was impressive to us. As far as the first matchup this season, Illinois shot 54% from the floor, 53% from beyond the three-point arc, and was 23-28 at the free throw line. No chance for the Illini to match what ended up being one of their best offensive games of the season, and it's important to remember Illinois only makes 42% of their shot attempts in conference overall this season. Purdue has shot 52%+ in each of their last four games, come in fully rested, and are now salivating at the chance to exact revenge from that earlier loss. It all adds up to a blowout winning margin over the #12 seed in the Big Ten Tourney! 20* CBB Afternoon Watch Party Play on Purdue.

20* Play on Indiana (-7). Tough spot for Michigan on Friday, who have to play very early after playing an overtime game yesterday - a game which saw the Wolverines survive against an average Northwestern foe. Not only will Michigan play this early game without rest, but they also lack confidence after Indiana beat Michigan by 13 points in the only in-season matchup this season - and that game was played in Ann Arbor. Michigan has not been able to hang with the better teams in the conference, and with all the rest and confidence factors at work we think this one will get out of hand early. Hoosiers have been very consistent at both ends of the floor down the stretch, and particularly on offense which is the key in this game. 38% shooting was good enough for Michigan to get past the Wildcats, but a similar offensive effort today leads to a blowout loss! 20* CBB "HIGH NOON SHOWDOWN" Play on Indiana.

20* Play on Virginia Tech (+9). We called for the Hokies to upset Florida State yesterday and they managed to come through for us. We pointed to VTech's gain in confidence down the stretch of the regular season and we never really trusted Florida State. We will come back and back Virginia Tech again on Thursday night, however under much different circumstances. While we do think Miami is a good team and will very likely win this game outright, we still believe Virginia Tech can stay well within this big number. Hokies were a six-point home underdog against this Hurricanes team in the regular season finale, and ended up winning that game outright by a surprising 15-point margin. That win means Miami won't take Virginia Tech likely, but it also means the Hokies know they can hang with his tough opponent and won't give up. Miami beat Virginia Tech by 16 points on their home floor about three weeks ago, however the Hurricanes shot 50% from the floor while VTech was held to just 29% shooting. That big of a shooting discrepancy should have led to a much bigger margin of victory. Assuming a red hot Hokies team that has gone 6-0 both SU and ATS in their last six games will NOT be held to under 30% shooting, or will be 20 percentage points worse in the shooting department, we're not sure what else Miami can do in order to run up the score enough to cover this spread. Pure value play backing a hot team that will likely not win outright, but is very capable of covering this generous spot. 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Virginia Tech.

20* Play on Wisconsin (-5.5). We do not like the way Nebraska closed their regular season - losing winnable games against Ohio State (at home), Penn State, Purdue (at home), and Northwestern before finally beating Big Ten doormat Rutgers in the regular season finale. Cornhuskers have lost five of their last six overall heading into the Big Ten Conference Tournament, and face a Wisconsin team that has quietly been one of the better teams in the conference over the past two months. Badgers went 11-2 straight up (10-3 ATS) to close the regular season including big wins against Michigan State, Indiana, Maryland (road) and Iowa (road). No surprise that defense led the way and they are peaking defensively right now holding four of their last five opponents to 60 points or less. Nebraska struggles offensively and has completely fallen apart at the defensive end of the court, allowing 50%+ shooting in half of their last 12 games in a conference not exactly known for their offense. Badgers not prone to making mistakes - a sign of a good coach - and rarely beat themselves. Don't believe Nebraska is good enough to beat a team like Wisconsin, and never really had a chance in the lone matchup this season, falling by 11 points scoring just 61 points themselves. This line doesn't accurately depict the current state of both of these teams, and we expect Wisconsin to quietly win and cover as they have been over the past two months! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Wisconsin.

20* Play on Xavier (-9.5). We have felt that Xavier has been one of the most underrated teams in the country since the start of the season - and their ATS records of 18-12 overall (as well as 10-4 ATS away from home) seem to back that up. We will back what we consider to be the best team in the Big East (yes, better than Villanova) to win easily against Marquette on Thursday night, and we point to their two eight-point victories against the Golden Eagles as evidence. Musketeers eight-point road victory was enough to give Xavier the ATS cover, but they fell short ATS at home. That game saw Marquette have one of their better shooting efforts of the season - something we don't believe they'll be able to match tonight against a normally stout Xavier defense (allowing 41% shooting on the season) - especially with this game being played without rest. That lack of rest will really show up at the defensive end of the floor - easily Marquette's biggest weakness as a team and the reason we believe Xavier will be able to run up the score and cover this big number. Golden Eagles have now allowed at least 52% shooting and no less than 87 points in each of their last four games, and while they do have a good offensive team, they can't match Xavier's scoring when the two defenses are factored in. Marquette shot better than 50% from beyond the three-point arc at Xavier and still lost by 8 points. Xavier has been a solid play all season long and we look for them to come through again as they pull away in the second half en route to a blowout! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Xavier.

25* Play on Ohio State (-5.5). Huge motivational edge to the favorite on Thursday evening, as Ohio State head coach Thad Matta searches for his 20th win of the season. That 20-victory plateau is symbolic of a good season in College Basketball, but it's especially important for Matta to reach that mark as he's had at least 20 wins in every season he's been a head coach (even prior to his coming to Ohio State). This is not lost on his players, and we expect one of the best efforts of the season from the Ohio State roster today. Buckeyes have overachieved this year with a roster that shouldn't be close to 20 wins. The got here by winning the games they were supposed to, and while they lack the skill and confidence to hang with teams at the top of the Big Ten conference, they are solid against the bottom half of the group. Buckeyes beat Penn State by 20 points earlier this season and they have owned the Nittany Lions since Matta came to Columbus. Buckeyes have won five of their last seven to close the regular season (both losses came against Michigan State) and are far better than PSU both offensively and defensively in terms of ppg and shooting percentage - both in conference as well as overall this season. Matt's quest for 20 gives OSU a massive motivational edge, and while we don't believe they should even be considered to be close to making the NCAA Tournament, they at least come through for their head coach today with a blowout win and cover! 25* CBB "King's Ransom" Play on Ohio State.

20* Play on North Carolina (-7.5). Tar Heels came through for us last week when they held on for the ATS cover at Duke - a game North Carolina basically led the entire way on the road against their arch rival. That victory felt good for the Tar Heels, not only exacting some revenge from Duke's upset win at UNC earlier this season, but also taking momentum into this ACC Conference Tournament. Pittsburgh collapsed late yesterday against Syracuse but was able to hold on for the straight up victory (did not cover the spread). Today, they face a much different opponent, both in terms of tactics as well as game pace. While Syracuse slows teams down with their matchup zone, UNC likes to play at a much faster tempo - a big edge for a rested team playing an opponent that played just yesterday. These teams met just once this season (at UNC) with the Tar Heels scoring a lopsided 21-point victory. We don't much stock into that final score as the Tar Heels made 59% of their shot attempts - a number they won't be able to match again here. However, what we do take away from that lopsided win is the fact that UNC dominated every facet of the game with the lone exception of rebounding, and after doubling up Duke 64-29 on the glass in their last game, we really don't think rebounding will be an issue here. Tar Heels are not an unstoppable juggernaut this season, but against a Pittsburgh club playing without rest that went just 10-9 in ACC play, UNC is certainly the superior team in this matchup, and we expect them to run past the Panthers and take this one by another comfortable margin! 20* CBB "High Noon Showdown" Play on North Carolina.

20* Play on Oregon State (-2.5). Both Arizona State and Oregon State are far more confident on their home floor than they are on the road, but Arizona State is more dependent on their home court advantage than the Beavers. Sun Devils are just 4-10 straight up away from home this year, losing by an average of 8 ppg while being out-shot 48% to 39.5%. Each of their last three road games resulted in SU and ATS losses - all coming by double-digits. The reason this line is so low is because the Sun Devils whipped the Beavers by 18 points in the only in-season meeting between both schools (Oregon State did not host ASU this year) - a game where the Sun Devils blew up offensively shooting 59% from the floor and 46% from behind the three-point arc. ASU has proven unable to duplicate that type of offensive production on the road, however, and we are getting excellent line value with what we consider to be the better team. Beavers with the superior record both overall this season as well as in conference (both in terms of outright victories and ATS). Beavers pulled off upset road wins in the last few weeks against both UCLA and Stanford, while ASU hasn't won outright as a dog since mid-December (prior to conference play). Beavers grind it out early and pull away late to cover! 20* CBB "Late Night Bailout" Play on Oregon State.

20* Play on Virginia Tech (+5). We did back Florida State yesterday in their 22-point blowout win versus a horrible Boston College team, but that play was more "against" BC than it was "on" Florida State. And to be honest, we weren't thrilled with the way the Seminoles played early in that game - not really pulling away until late. Coming off that big win the linesmakers have installed FSU as a small favorite tonight against Virginia Tech, and we like the Hokies to win this one outright. While Virginia Tech does have a rest advantage, we don't put too much stock into that this early in the tournament. What we do like about VTech in this game is the momentum they carry into this tournament, winning each of their last five games - four of those coming in the underdog role capped with a big 15-point win against Miami FL as a 6.5-point home underdog. That streak began with a ten-point home win against this FSU squad (as a 3.5-point home dog) - a victory that will have Virginia Tech confident when they take the floor tonight. FSU can't come out like they did yesterday and expect to win. Hokies a big step up in class compared to yesterday's opponent and we look for their winning streak to continue at least one more game! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Virginia Tech.

20* Play on Marquette (-7). Building off our reasoning for fading TCU (and Boston College yesterday), St. John's is another team that has fallen on hard times and has no real reason to play well tonight. The Red Storm are playing on their home court, but that hasn't helped them much at all this season going just 1-8 straight up here at home in conference play (1-17 against the Big East this year). Blowout losses against Providence and Creighton by a combined 55 points won't do anything for their confidence, and if anything we are getting great line value backing Marquette here as they are treated as a true road team by the linesmaker (line would have been three points higher if played on a true neutral court). Golden Eagles only won by five points here in the regular season, but that final score was heavily influenced by St. John's three point shooting (made nine three-point shots) and turnovers (Marquette turned the ball over 22 times). Eagles 52% to 35% shooting discrepancy is far more valuable to determining how this game should play out. Add in Marquette's 8-3 ATS record away from home and we would be surprised if this one doesn't end in a double-digit margin of victory! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Marquette.

20* Play on Texas Tech (-7). We love fading teams with no confidence or motivation in these early conference tournament games. That was the case yesterday when we faded Boston College in their 22-point loss against Florida State, and such is the case again tonight when TCU faces Texas Tech. The Horned Frogs are just 2-16 straight up in conference play this year, including 0-9 straight up away from their home floor. Not only that, but they have lost seven games in a row to close the regular season - four of which came by double-digits. Absolutely no confidence on the TCU roster after losing twice against the Red Raiders, and the reason we think Texas Tech will cover this big number has everything to do with recent offensive and defensive statistics. TCU's proof of giving up late in the year is evidenced by allowing 50%+ shooting in four of their five games, and we find Texas Tech heating up at the right time with offensive shooting numbers of 50%+ in four of their last five games. That's a deadly combination for a team that is being outscored by 13 ppg in conference play - well more than this number. Red Raiders control this one from the start! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Texas Tech.

20* Play on Pittsburgh (-3). Both Syracuse and Pittsburgh desperately need a win here to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive, and any motivational elements to that scenario is basically a wash between both teams. What we do like, however, is the on-court matchup for the Panthers, particularly in the rebounding department where Pitt manhandles Syracuse in both in-season meetings. Panthers held a 43-25 rebounding edge at home in late December when they beat Syracuse by nine points (as a 7.5-point favorite), and that rebounding advantage carried over to the next game in Syracuse, with Pittsburgh finishing +20 on the boards and winning outright by 14 points (as a small road underdog). No reason to believe anything will be difference this time around, and in a game where the linesmakers look for a close game, that rebounding advantage will once again be the deciding factor. Pittsburgh knows they can wear this team down with defense (they certainly didn't do anything great offensively in either victory), and the confidence from those two victories leads Pitt to the win and cover today! 20* Play on Pittsburgh.

25* Play on St. Mary's (+2). We backed the Gaels last night in their easy win and cover against Pepperdine. In that game, St. Mary's was playing with double-revenge from a pair of regular season losses, though we felt St. Mary's was still the superior team despite those two results. In this West Coast Conference Tournament Final, it's Gonzaga that takes the court playing with double revenge, as the Gaels beat the Zags both at St. Mary's (by 3 points) and at Gonzaga (by 5 points). But unlike yesterday's game, we're not going to back the team playing with revenge, and we don't believe those two wins by St. Mary's was any kind of fluke. Gonzaga is a decent squad, but not at the same level they have been over the past several years. Zags outlasted BYU last night thanks to excellent shooting (49%) and a great night beyond the arc. Don't believe Gonzaga will be able to rely on that type of offensive production this time around, and the decisive edge St. Mary's has defensively will show up big with this being the third game in four nights for both teams. Having the #1 seeded team as an underdog gives the Gaels that extra boost of motivation and we view them worthy of our top 25* rating. St. Mary's wins this game outright, and we don't think it will be close! 25* CBB "Black Reign" Play on St. Mary's.

20* Play on Florida State (-13). While we do like the way Florida State finished their regular season - beating both Notre Dame and Syracuse on their home floor - this play is almost entirely "against" Boston College more than it is "on" the Seminoles. Eagles gave up on this season a long time ago, and literally have nothing to play for here. BC comes into this game riding an 18-game losing streak - going winless in ACC play with those 18 losses coming by an average of 17 ppg. These teams met just once in the regular season, with FSU pushing as a ten-point road favorite. What that final score doesn't show is the fact that FSU had a poor shooting game that day, making 39% of their shots including just 5-17 beyond the three point arc. They did, however, hold a 25-9 advantage in free throw attempts and a massive 46-28 edge in rebounding - two key stats that typically follow suit regardless of home/road/neutral location. Huge motivational edge to the favorite here, and BC can't end this season quick enough. No effort from the Eagles in the second half as this one gets ugly! 20* CBB ESPN2 "Watch Party" Play on Florida State.

20* Play on St. Mary's (-7). While normally a conference finals matchup with Gonzaga looming would have us fading the favored Gaels, the fact that St. Mary's lost twice in the regular season against Pepperdine means St. Mary's will be extremely focused on the task at hand tonight, and we'll back the Gaels to exact some revenge and win by a huge margin on Monday night. The Waves held St. Mary's to 41% and 44% shooting in the two upset victories, but really it was the Gaels three-point shooting that let them down in those two losses. Those two losses were exactly half of St. Mary's losses this entire season, and despite those two results the Gaels are still clearly the superior team in this matchup. St. Mary's is +11ppg in conference play on the season, shooting a very high 49% from the floor (50% shooting overall this season) while holding conference foes to 61 ppg on 41% shooting. And with this being a true neutral court setting, road play means a lot in this matchup, so St. Mary's 8-3 straight up road record compared to Pepperdine's 8-9 record is very telling. It's difficult for even a good team to beat an opponent three times in the same season, and it's that much more difficult for a lesser team to pull an upset three times in a season. St. Mary's was caught off guard the first two matchups, but they don't lose focus this time around and win by a big double-digit margin! 20* CBB ESPN "Watch Party" Play on St. Mary's.

20* Play on Northwestern (-4.5). Nebraska has basically given up on the season, and limp into this road game at Northwestern losers of four straight and eight of their last ten games overall (both wins came as big favorites of -7 and -19). The most recent loss by the Cornhuskers is the most telling - a 19-point blowout loss on their home floor against Purdue (as a 3.5-point home underdog) which really shows the lack of motivation on this roster. Northwestern has all the motivation in the world in this game, going for their 20th win of the season, and they have been vastly underrated on their home floor where they are 13-4 straight up. That home record breeds confidence, and when the Wildcats have confidence they play well - as evidenced by their last two wins (both ATS covers) against lesser teams in Rutgers (won by 39 points) and Penn State (won by 10 points on the road). Wildcats beat Nebraska earlier this season by nine points as a 3.5-point road underdog, and they take this one easily as well! 20* CBB Big Ten Demolition Play on Northwestern.

25* Play on North Carolina (-2). Best rivalry in College Basketball continues with a good story line, as Duke already knocked off a much better North Carolina team on the road earlier this season. UNC did everything right statistically in that one-point loss with one major exception - going just 1-13 behind the three-point line which ended up being the difference in the game. North Carolina held a slight overall shooting advantage, played pretty well defensively holding Duke to 41.5% shooting, was virtually even at the free throw line in terms of made free throws and attempts, and held a big +12 edge in rebounding. That sets up a great "play-on" spot for North Carolina tonight, playing with revenge from that one-point loss earlier in the season and they also have history on their side as they have covered the spread in 14 of the last 18 meetings played here on Duke's home floor. We like that trend to continue noting this is not the same quality Duke team that we have been used to seeing in the past. Blue Devils offensive production has been wildly inconsistent (back-to-back games shooting well under 40% coming into this game) and their defense has been abysmal - allowing 50% shooting in three of their last four games overall. UNC is the better team this year by a wide margin, and they prove it with a statement win to close the regular season! 25* CBB ACC Game of the Year on North Carolina.

20* Play on USC (+3). After a few seasons stuck in mediocrity, the USC Trojans have made huge strides this season, thanks mainly to a legitimate home court advantage. Entering this final game of the regular season, the Trojans have gone a near-perfect 16-1 straight up, but that doesn't tell the whole story. USC has outscored their opponents by an average of 15 ppg on this floor, and have somehow continued to stay under the linesmaker's radar going 12-5 at the betting window. We'll back USC to continue their home court dominance on Saturday and win by a comfortable margin (Trojans are a small home underdog as of this writing) against Oregon. Ducks have established themselves as one of the better teams in the Pac 12, but they are not good away from home going 6-6 straight up and 5-6 ATS. Both teams have similar defensive numbers in terms of points per game allowed when factoring in home/road tendencies, however those numbers are skewed heavily as USC plays at a much faster tempo on their home floor. If you look simply at field goal percentage allowed, USC's defense is far better than Oregon. And the offensive numbers heavily favor the hometown Trojans in this matchup. Linesmakers have been wrong on USC all season long and we'll back the Trojans to once again flex their home court muscles in an easy win and cover! 20* CBB "Blowout Demolition" Play on USC.

25* Play on Arizona (-6.5). A little over a month ago, Arizona out-shot the Golden Bears 52% to 45% but came up one point shy in a 74-73 loss (as a two-point road favorite). That loss symbolizes Arizona's road woes this season, as they are just 7-6 straight up on the road this year. However, here at home they are near-perfect, going 15-1 straight up and outscoring those foes by an average of 20 points per game. Clearly confidence is the main reason for that home success (combined with lack of confidence in their visiting opponents), and we look for that home success to continue tonight. Arizona is coming off back-to-back losses (both on the road) and are extremely eager to end that losing skid with the postseason right around the corner. California comes in red hot winning seven games in a row, however a closer look at their schedule reveals the Golden Bears played five of those seven games on their home court and were favored in all seven contests. If anything, that seven-game winning streak along with Arizona's back-to-back losses is giving us tremendous line value tonight. Arizona won by 39 points the last time these teams met on up on this court, and while we're not calling for a 30+ point margin of victory, we do believe this one will be decided by double-digits. Arizona earns our highest 25* rating as we look for a very easy win and cover! 25* CBB Revenge Game of the Year on Arizona.

20* Play on Notre Dame (-2.5). Irish are coming off their worst game of the season - a 19-point blasting on the road at Florida State which saw Notre Dame have their second-worst shooting game of the entire season (36%). That was Notre Dame's third road game in a row, but now they finally come back home where they are a near-perfect 15-1 straight up this season, including victories against Louisville and North Carolina. That manner in which Notre Dame lost that game vs. the Seminoles is giving us great line value Wednesday night, and we love the Irish in this obvious "bounce-back" spot at this price. Miami has been a surprise this season and while we don't have many bad things to say about the Hurricanes, they are beatable on the road where four of their five losses have come this season. Victories against both the Tar Heels and Blue Devils prove the Irish aren't intimidated by anyone (in fact the Duke win came on the road). Irish have proved to be extremely good on their home floor, and we expect a similar effort tonight as they pull away in the second half to win by a comfortable margin! 20* CBB "Blowout Demolition" Play on Notre Dame.

20* Play on Purdue (-3.5). Boilermakers have lost three straight games outright on the road, however we do like they way they played tough in those games - and we believe Purdue not only wins this game outright at Nebraska, but by a comfortable margin. Cornhuskers have lost three straight, including an outright loss as a home favorite against Ohio State in their most recent home game, and proved no match for the Boilermakers earlier this year as they let Purdue score 89 points in a 15-point win and cover about a month ago. The 38-22 rebounding edge is the type of dominating statistical effort that leads us to believe Purdue can win the matchups in the paint - even as the visitor in this matchup. Nebraska has a much more winnable game up next against Northwestern, and we wouldn't be at all surprise to see Nebraska's attention shift to that game if this one starts to get out of hand. Cornhuskers have not showed a tendency to play up after getting crushed by the same opponent earlier in the year, going just 4-13 ATS revenging a loss of ten or more points. Purdue is clearly the better team in this matchup, and they prove it with a solid win and ATS cover tonight! 20* CBB "Big Ten Demolition" Play on Purdue.

20* Play on Iowa State (-14). Oklahoma State has given up. That's not uncommon at this point of the season, as some teams simply can't get motivated to finish the schedule with the necessary effort when the team has no chance of going anywhere. Cowboys have lost seven of their last eight games overall, but it's their last four games which shows the mentality of this team. Starting with their 27-point loss at Kansas, Oklahoma State has lost four straight both straight up as well as against the spread, with all four of those losses coming by double-digit margins. That includes a ten-point loss at home against a bad Texas Tech team (OSU was actually a home favorite in that one), as well as a pair of lopsided defeats against Oklahoma (lost by 22) and most recently at home vs. West Virginia (lost by 14). Iowa State is a very good home team, going 13-2 straight up while scoring 86 ppg. That is a huge difference compared to Oklahoma State's 64 ppg scoring average in conference play, and that conference scoring average is going down thanks to five games scoring under 60 points in their last seven. Fast-paced offense combined with an unmotivated visitor in their final road game of the season can only lead to a blowout winning margin, and we'll back Iowa State to cover this big number with ease! 20* CBB "Blowout Demolition" Play on Iowa State.

25* Play on Colorado (-6.5). The linesmakers flat out missed this one, and we are very eager to jump all over a dominant home team in Colorado and fade a horrible road side in Arizona State this afternoon. Buffaloes are a near-perfect 15-1 straight up on their home court - including a win against Pac-12 powerhouse Arizona their last time out, and are only favored by this small number for no real reason. This will be Arizona State's third road game in row, with the first two ending in 38-point and 35-point disastrous blowouts. That's nothing new for the Sun Devils, who did beat Pac-12 doormat Washington State but is 0-7 straight up and 1-6 ATS as the visitor against everyone else in conference play. The fact that Colorado puts up 83 ppg here at home while ASU has been torched defensively vs. conference foes (to the tune of 80 ppg) leads us to believe Colorado will be able to run away with this one, and Arizona State won't be able to handle the up-tempo game pace set by the host. Colorado is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS as a small home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points, and that streak continues as the Sun Devils suffer their third blowout road loss in a row! 25* CBB "King's Ransom" Play on Colorado.

20* Play on Cleveland (-5.5). We just backed the Cavs in a "bounce-back" spot coming off a rare loss earlier this week when they beat Charlotte by double-digits on their home court, and after falling apart in the closing moments at Toronto Friday night (Cavs led the Raptors all the way until the closing minutes), we'll back the Cavs again in a similar spot. The theory is to back elite NBA teams after a sub par performance, as these teams tend to regain focus immediately and play extremely well in their following game. We have already successfully backed Cleveland, Oklahoma City, and the LA Clippers in this type of situation earlier this week. Washington comes in a bit overrated, getting a decent amount of respect from the linesmaker despite owning a losing record overall this year, including a losing mark here at home. Cleveland is the better offensive team in this matchup - especially after the head coaching change a few weeks back which has made the Cavs a much faster team (not properly reflected in their season statistics). But where the Cavs really have the edge is on the defensive end of the court, as Washington is giving up 105 ppg on the season (104 ppg at home) with a high opposing shooting percentage of 47%. That type of defense combined with Cleveland's stellar offense leads us to believe the Cavs will be able to take control of this game early, and cruise to an easy win and cover. Toronto's late comeback on Friday night will have the visitor keeping the foot on the gas pedal until this one is no longer in doubt! 20* NBA "Early Equation" Play on Cleveland.

25* Play on Villanova (-8.5). We faded Villanova in their outright loss against Xavier earlier this week, but that now sets up a great "play-on" spot for the Wildcats this Saturday as they visit Marquette. Villanova has lost just four times this season, and following their first three losses they have shown a tendency to bounce back immediately - winning their next game by margins of 29, 30, and 15 points. No shame losing on the road at Xavier, who is a legitimate Top 4 team in our opinion and is deserving of a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Wildcats beat Marquette by 15 points in the first matchup this season, and have beaten the Golden Eagles by a double-digit margin in each of the last five matchups overall. Marquette just 4-12 ATS at home this season and a paltry 3-11 ATS as a home underdog in their last 14 chances. Both teams similar in terms of offensive production but Villanova is by far the better defensive team, and that is where they have the big advantage in this matchup. Wildcats bounce back after this week's loss at Xavier and take this one with ease! 25* CBB "Black Reign" Play on Villanova.

20* Play on LA Clippers (-2). This game sets up almost exactly like when we backed the Cleveland Cavaliers two night ago. In that game, we were looking to back an elite team coming off a very bad effort (Clippers lost outright at home vs. the Nuggets) while also playing with revenge from a straight up upset loss the last time these two teams have met. We did take Denver in that game on Wednesday night as part of our three-game package, however we did not expect the Nuggets to win outright. Clippers have not lost two straight games since back before Christmas, and they are have shown a tendency to immediately right the ship, going 6-0 both straight up and ATS after a loss dating back to mid-January. Sacramento is not a good home team going .500 through 28 games, and is especially poor defensively giving up 109 ppg on the season (107 ppg at home). That doesn't bode well against a solid offensive team like LA - especially coming off a loss - and we'll back the Clippers to win this one going away! 20* NBA "Streak Extender" Play on LA Clippers.

20* Play on Golden State (-7.5). Last night we successfully backed Cleveland and Oklahoma City - a pair of elite NBA teams that were coming off a sub par effort in their previous game. Tonight, while not in the same exact situation as the Cavs and Thunder - Golden State is in a similar spot after nearly losing outright on the road at Miami last night. Warriors trailed for most of the game including at the start of the fourth quarter, and were bailed out by the sharp shooting of Curry and Thompson (combined for 75 points). Golden State didn't secure that win until the final minute of the game - a pretty good scare for a Warriors squad that is motivated by breaking Chicago's all-time best 72-10 record. That type of game can serve as a wake-up call for the rest of the Warriors "other" players, and we look for the team as a whole to play much more focused tonight in Orlando. We are getting great line value backing the Warriors on the road and without rest, laying single digits with a favorite that not only is 19-12 ATS on the road this year, but is 27-5 SU away from home and winning by 11.4 ppg overall this season going up against an Orlando team that isn't great at home and owns a losing record overall. Often times the linesmakers account for teams playing without rest, but that adjustment is too much for Golden State, who is 21-9 ATS playing without rest in their last 30 games. We'll lay the reasonable price as Golden State delivers one of their typical blowout performances tonight! 20* NBA "Blowout Demolition" Play on Golden State.

20* Play on Denver (+10.5). While we do fully expect the Clippers to win this game outright, we like how Denver has played tough lately and believe they can stay within single-digits of LA by the time this one is over. Nuggets haven't lost by double-digits on the road since a ten-point loss at Oklahoma City back in late December (12 road games total), and have played good teams tough including a three-point loss at Golden State (as a big 15-point underdog). Denver also has four outright victories as road underdogs in that span, and while we're not calling for the outright upset here, it does show that the Nuggets are not intimidated just because they are the road team. Clippers still without star forward Blake Griffin and are in a bad spot coming off a 40-point blowout against Phoenix their last time out. Those lopsided wins can sometimes lead to a team getting overconfident their next time out - especially against a weaker opponent where they are expected to win big. Denver lost by 7 points as an 18-point road underdog the last time these two teams met up in LA, and Denver lost by just four points as a 14-point road dog the time before that. Nuggets keep this one close! 20* NBA "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Denver.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (-5.5). Thunder have had three full days to think about that blowout home loss against the Cavs on Sunday, and with that time to regroup we believe OKC will come out on fire and win big on the road at Dallas tonight. Mavericks have lost five of their last seven games overall (and one of those two victories was against an awful Philadelphia team), including two outright losses as favorites. Thunder are already a perfect 3-0 against Dallas so far this season, scoring at least 108 points in all three victories. Given the Mavericks poor defense of late - five straight games allowing 103+ points and four games in that span allowing at least 110 points - we look for the Thunder's offense to resume back to their normal explosive self which has put up 110 ppg on average this season. Great motivational spot to back the Thunder tonight and getting great line value with OKC as the visitor. Thunder's offense too much for Dallas over the course of 48 minutes and OKC pulls away in the second half to win by a comfortable margin! 20* NBA "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on Cleveland (-8). We love backing elite teams immediately following a subpar performance, and we have two such instances on Wednesday night. We'll start with Cleveland, who after making a statement on Sunday afternoon in a blowout road win against the Thunder came out on Monday night and laid an egg with an outright loss at home vs. Detroit. That sets up a great "play-on" spot for the Cavs tonight - not only in an obvious "bounce-back" situation after the Pistons game but also a nice revenge spot after Charlotte upset the Cavs in the last encounter. Cleveland let the Hornets shoot 49% from the floor in that game - the highest shooting percentage allowed by the Cavs in their last 16 games overall (dating back to that blowout home loss against Golden State). Cleveland never sustained a run in that Detroit game, but will be very focused here and we expect a typical dominating effort from the Cavs on their home floor. 20* NBA "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Cleveland.

20* Play on Michigan (-7). Northwestern slumping down the stretch losing seven of their last nine games overall, and we look for that slump to continue at least one more game as we'll back Michigan to win by a comfortable margin. Wildcats are 0-5 straight up away from home during that 2-7 stretch, with each of their last four road defeats coming by no less than eight points each (enough for Michigan to cover this number). Wolverines have lost two straight games - the latest coming in a hard-fought four-point loss against Maryland - and that is the third time they've lost back-to-back games this season. They responded with SU and ATS wins in each of the last two instances in this situation, and against a NW team that has given up 71, 71, 85, and 89 points in their last four road games we believe Michigan will be able to run up the score in the second half. Wildcats just 1-7 ATS after playing as an underdog, and that trend continues as Michigan takes this one by double-digits! 20* CBB "Slump Buster" Play on Michigan.

25* Play on Xavier (-1). Back on New Year's Eve, we backed Villanova at home to hand Xavier their first loss of the season, and they crushed the Musketeers by a lopsided 95-64 final score. Villanova has dominated this series in recent years, and the first meeting was no exception. We look for Xavier's fortunes to finally turn around tonight, however, and we'll back them at home to finally get their revenge. Xavier has been extremely good on their home court this season, going 13-1 straight up and winning by a full 14 points per game. The fact that this line is so low is extremely telling, as the linesmakers have set a trap begging for action on the #1 team in the country. We're not biting, and fully expect Xavier to not only win this game, but win easily. The home crowd will be especially rowdy tonight and no doubt the Musketeers have had this game circled ever since that disappointing effort in the first matchup. Xavier is a perfect 9-0 ATS as a home favorite of 6 points or less, and we've successfully backed them a number of times already this season. Villanova is beatable when they are the visitor as their scoring dips a full five points below their season average. Musketeers make a statement and jump up to a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament with a victory tonight! 25* CBB "King's Ransom" Play on Xavier.