20* Play on San Francisco (+3.5). Arizona QB Carson Palmer didn't make the trip to San Francisco, which means the Cardinals will have Drew Stanton under center Thursday night. Cards couldn't have started any worse this year - not only losing Palmer for this game but also off to a poor 1-3 start with all three losses coming in the role of the favorite. We like the progress we've seen from San Francisco so far under new head coach Chip Kelly, and while their passing game still leaves much to be desired they are finding some success on the ground and with their short passing game. The loss of Palmer makes this Arizona team heavily dependent on the run, and we saw what San Francisco did against that type of offense in their 28-0 shutout win against the Rams on opening night. Cards lost 33-18 as five-point chalk in their lone road game this season, and without Palmer we expect the 49ers to hand Arizona their fourth outright upset loss this year! 20* NFL Thursday Night Thunder Play on San Francisco.

20* Play on Pittsburgh (-4.5). Steelers have to be pleased with their 2-1 start to the season while missing the services of RB Le'Veon Bell, even if that one defeat came in a lopsided beat down last week at Philadelphia. Steelers need to run the ball in order to be effective on offense, as their passing game really works from play-action. Steelers finished with just 29 yards rushing last week, but with Bell back in the lineup after serving a three-game suspension we expect the Pittsburgh offense to get back on track this week. Chiefs are also 2-1 but have been rather pedestrian on offense statistically, being held to 83 yards rushing or less twice and also 221 yards passing or less twice. Don't believe KC will force 8 turnovers like they did last week - they'll need to score in order to keep up with this Pittsburgh offense which will finally see Big Ben, Antonio Brown, and Le'Veon Bell all on the field at the same time. Given the fact KC couldn't reach 300 total yards in their lone road game this year - a 7-point loss at Houston - we don't think the Chiefs have enough to stay close Sunday night. 20* NFL Sunday Night Game of the Month Play on Pittsburgh.

25* Play on Oklahoma (-3.5). Sooners could not make a statement early this year against a stacked non-conference schedule, losing against Houston and Ohio State and they now find themselves entering the month of October with a losing record. But we don't believe either of those two losses should be cause for concern - this is still a premier team and in our opinion the best team in the Big 12 Conference. Linesmakers are begging for action on TCU in this game, installing the #21 Horned Frogs as an underdog despite playing an unranked opponent and playing the role of host. We're not biting, and instead we'll look for Oklahoma to win this game by a surprising margin. TCU is 3-1, losing against Arkansas and having all three wins against inferior competition (was favored by more than 20 points in all three victories). Sooners had an extra week of rest to prepare for this game and will treat it like the "make-or-break" game that it is. TCU's defense has a number of issues that have been masked by a weak non-conference schedule, but they get exposed this Saturday! 25* CFB Trap Game of the Year Play on Oklahoma.

20* Play on Florida State (-10.5). We backed the Seminoles last week in their blowout win and cover against South Florida, taking advantage of the huge overreaction by the linesmakers to FSU's infamous loss against Louisville. Vegas still isn't convinced FSU is a good team, and we'll back the Seminoles to cover another soft line this Saturday against North Carolina. Tar Heels can't stop anyone on the ground, allowing a minimum of 182 yards rushing in all four games and twice allowing over 280. FSU more than capable of controlling this game from the outset without having to put the ball in the air, and we expect a huge rushing effort from the favorite in another blowout win and cover! 20* CFB "Blowout Demolition" Play on Florida State.

20* Play on Georgia (+3). Tennessee has been playing with fire all season long, and remain highly ranked despite some needing a number of fortunate bounces to go their way to keep their perfect record. Vols should have lost outright at home against Appalachian State to start the year (won in overtime) and also struggled against Ohio U. Those results can be directly attributed to lack of focus and motivation, and they find themselves in a horrible motivational spot this Saturday not only playing their first true road game of the season, but also coming off a "feel-good" win against a Florida team that has had their number for over a decade. Georgia will be looking to come out strong after last week's embarrassing lopsided loss, and matches up well here with their strong running game. Bulldogs weakness is in their secondary, but we don't like Tennessee's passing game and don't believe the Vols can capitalize on that weakness. Georgia wins this one outright, but we'll take the points as insurance! 20* CFB Underdog of the Month Play on Georgia.

20* Play on Texas Tech (-28.5). Kansas fans stormed the field after the Jayhawks beat FCS Rhode Island in their season-opener, but since then it's been "typical" Jayhawks football with an outright favored loss at home against Ohio U (by 16 points) and then a 36-point blowout at Memphis. No reason to think Kansas can stay competitive on the road tonight against a Red Raiders squad that has scored 55+ points in all three games - especially with this game taking place at Texas Tech. Kansas just 2-10 ATS as an underdog and were nowhere close to covering a big 20-point spot their last time out, and a rested Texas Tech team with no look-ahead spot in play wins this one in a blowout! 20* CFB Thursday Night Thunder Play on Texas Tech.

20* Play on New Orleans (-3). Saints won and covered both meetings between these teams last season, with New Orleans finishing with over 300 yards passing in both contests. After last week's offensive dud, we expect the Saints to get back on track with a huge offensive effort on their home field and win this game going away. We took the underdog in both of our previous MNF games (SF in Week 1, PHI last week) but like the favorite to win here. Saints are far better than they showed last week and we like backing good offensive teams at home after a poor road showing the week before. Atlanta did win last week but still looks like they lack confidence in the red zone - which was their undoing last year. Additionally, Falcons running game has not been nearly as good last year and in a battle of passing games, we'll take Breeze at home against anyone. 20* NFL Monday Night Showdown Play on New Orleans.

20* Play on Pittsburgh (-3.5). We backed the Eagles in both of their SU and ATS wins so far, as rookie QB Carson Wentz was able to shine against two of the weakest defenses the NFL has to offer (two worst secondaries in the league in our opinion). Much different task this week, however, and we expect the rookie to taste defeat for the first time this year. Steelers have looked solid on both sides of the ball so far, even while RB Bell still serves his three-game suspension. Pittsburgh shut down a very good Cincinnati team last week and has not allowed either the Redskins or Bengals to rush for more than 55 yards. Wentz had a productive running game behind him but the Steelers will force Wentz to beat them through the air this week. Big Ben and the offense will put up points on the scoreboard - not convinced Wentz can do the same in this spot. 20* NFL "Vegas Inferno" Play on Pittsburgh.

25* Play on Miami (-10). We are only in Week 3 and the Cleveland Browns are already on their third starting quarterback of the season. Browns have a chance to be historically bad this year - already having one of the worst defenses in the league and now missing their first-round draft pick while starting rookie QB Cody Kessler on the road. Kessler did not look good in the preseason and never looked comfortable in this offense - taking seven sacks in limited action (all against backup defenses) while finishing with 4.5 or fewer yards per pass attempt in three of those four preseason games. Browns offense wasn't all that great to begin with, although they did show some signs of life last week with McCown at the helm. Dolphins are desperate for a win and should absolutely dominate on both sides of the ball. Wouldn't be surprised to see a shutout here as the Dolphins easily cover this big number! 25* NFL Blowout of the Year Play on Miami.

20* Play on Michigan State (-4). Both Wisconsin and Michigan State come into this Big Ten opener after already securing signature non-conference victories. And while the Badgers two-point home win against LSU was impressive, Michigan State completely dominated Notre Dame on the road for the better part of three quarters - then playing against the clock in the final quarter and holding on for an eight-point win. Spartans can stop Wisconsin's rushing attack which renders their offense useless. Badgers scored just 16 points in their win against LSU, but will need much more than that to upset the Spartans. MSU better on both sides of the ball, and with home field advantage they take this one by double-digits! 20* CFB Big Ten Game of the Month Play on Michigan State.

20* Play on Florida State (-5). South Florida has done well in the role of big favorite - winning and covering all three of their games this season while putting up 45+ points in all three victories. But those lopsided wins against inferior competition (USF favored by double-digits in all three matchups) only gives us better line value this Saturday backing a Florida State team that was outright embarrassed last week vs. Louisville. FSU was never good enough to be ranked #2 in the country, but they are certainly better than last week's 43-point blowout makes them out to be. FSU will be able to run at will here, and the motivational edge by the visitor looking to make up for last week's disaster combined with this very low line results in an easy cover by the Seminoles! 20* CFB "Blowout Demolition" Play on Florida State.

20* Play on Philadelphia (+3). Bears did not look good last week putting up only 73 yards rushing and another 185 yards through the air in a 9-point loss at Houston. Now they face a confident Eagles team as rookie QB Carson Wentz looked good against an awful Browns defense. Wentz has another great matchup against one of the worst secondaries in all of football. We are not as high on Wentz as some are, but these first two weeks of the season couldn't be better matchups for him. Eagles scored 29 points last week and could match that again here while the Bears don't have enough offensive firepower to keep up.Bears 0-6 against the spread at home vs. conference opponents, and that trend continues as the Eagles take this one with ease! 20* NFL Monday Night Football Game of the Month on Philadelphia.

20* Play on Green Bay (-1.5). As of this writing, it appears that Sam Bradford will be under center for the Vikings. That can only help a Minnesota offense that did not play well last week - putting up only 300 yards of total offense. Vikings were bailed out by their defense, who scored two touchdowns themselves which was the difference in their 11-point win. Much different opponent for Minnesota this week, as they take on a Green Bay team with a legit rush-and-pass option and the return of WR Jordy Nelson is a big improvement from last year. Don't trust Vikings ability to run the ball against a Packers defense that only allowed 48 rushing yards last week, and Bradford isn't going to be completely comfortable in this offense yet. Basically picking the outright winner with this small line, and we expect Green Bay to win rather easily! 20* NFL "Sunday Night Showdown" Play on Green Bay.

25* Play on Baltimore (-6). Browns weren't going to be a good team anyway this season, but having QB RG3 injured in the first game of the season will have a big effect on the motivation for this team over the next few weeks. We actually think McCown is a better fit for this team, but in all honesty it doesn't make that much of a difference. Ravens will be able to control the clock and field position with their ground game and simply wear down the Browns. Baltimore has won and covered the spread in 7 of their last 8 trips to Cleveland, and this year is no different. Ravens in a blowout! 25* NFL "King's Ransom" Play on Baltimore.

20* Play on Texas (-7). These teams entered this season with completely different expectations. This was the "make-or-break" season for Texas head coach Charlie Strong, and he delivered so far with an upset win against Notre Dame and followed that up with a 36-point blowout against UTEP - avoiding the obvious letdown situation. Cal lost a ton of their starters on both sides of the ball and are in a full-blown rebuilding year. Not only is QB Jared Goff gone to the NFL, but Cal also lost their top six receivers from a year ago. Golden Bears put up big passing numbers the last two weeks against inferior competition, and they lost outright (covered as a 5.5-point underdog) at San Diego State last week. Longhorns have a balanced offense, but honestly they can run the ball on 100% of their plays and win this game comfortably. Cal has given up nearly 600 yards rushing against a pair of non-Power Conference teams (and not triple-option teams either) and will absolutely worn out by the second half in this game. Longhorns have a legit chance to score on nearly every possession, and while Cal will make some plays through the air, their defense doesn't keep them in the game. 20* CFB "Late Night Bailout" Play on Texas.

25* Play on Ohio State (-1). Ohio State has been very kind to us this year, giving us a pair of easy ATS covers the first two weeks of the season in blowout victories against Bowling Green (covered the spread by 40 points) and last week vs. Tulsa (covered by 17 points). Now the Buckeyes face some "real" competition playing a true road game at Oklahoma. Sooners crushed an overmatched Louisiana Monroe squad last week but dropped their season-opener outright against Houston. That loss was very telling, as former OSU offensive coordinator Tom Herman is running the show in Houston, and the Sooners defense gave up over 400 yards. Now they face a similar offense with far more talented athletes in the key positions. Buckeyes defense hasn't been talked about much, but they have allowed zero touchdowns this year while scoring three themselves. Their secondary is attacking the passing lanes forcing turnovers while their rush defense has been stout. Oklahoma will break the century mark on the ground here, but won't do much through the air without making mistakes along the way. Remember, Buckeyes have not lost a true road game since Urban Meyer took over the head coaching duties. OSU is the better team, and they prove it with a signature win this Saturday night! 25* CFB Non-Conference Game of the Year Play on Ohio State.

25* Play on Michigan State (+8). We faded Notre Dame in their outright season-opening loss against Texas, and we'll fade them again this week as they host a well-rested Michigan State team. Irish very may well win this game outright, although we give the Spartans a coin-flip's chance of winning this game as well and a very good chance of covering this inflated number. MSU was off last week so they have had two full weeks to prepare for this matchup. Notre Dame was not able to contain the Texas ground game and on the other side of the ball their passing game has fallen a few notches from seasons past. That sets up very nicely for the visitors, as Michigan State's power rushing attack should find a ton of success this Saturday, and while MSU's secondary is just average - they are extremely good at stopping the run. If Notre Dmae wins this game - and that's a big "if" - we don't think it will be by more than a touchdown. MSU keeps this game close and may even steal an outright upset victory! 25* CFB "Clash of the Titans" Play on Michigan State.

20* Play on Oklahoma State (-4.5). Wrong place, wrong time for Pittsburgh, who visits Oklahoma State after the Cowboys had a victory wrongly taken away from them last Saturday. Everyone has seen the final play Central Michigan came up with to steal the win, but the manner in which it happened will only have Oklahoma State more focused and looking to take out their aggression this week. We don't put much stock into both teams season-opening victories against cupcake opponents, but the fact that Penn State was able to put up a ton of yardage through the air means the Cowboys should have a field day throwing the ball here. Pittsburgh can not match the Cowboys passing attack, and we're not sure they'll have much success on the ground. Panthers just 9-23 ATS on the road after a two-game home stand, and in their road opener their offense sputters as Oklahoma State shows no mercy in a rout! 20* CFB "Blowout Demolition" Play on Oklahoma State.

20* Play on Alabama (-11). Ole' Miss was impressive in the first half of their opening-season tilt against Florida State, but has fallen apart ever since. Rebels couldn't hold on to the ball and let FSU come all the way back to win by a comfortable 11-point margin (as a four-point favorite), and Ole' Miss followed up that game with a pedestrian 25-point win against Wofford. Ole' Miss was favored by 44 points in that game but only scored 38 points total. Now the Rebels take on the top-ranked team in the country and we don't think they'll be able to stay competitive. Alabama shut down USC's offense allowing just six points scored total, and with Kent State on deck there's nothing to take their focus away from this game Saturday. Rebels gave up almost 600 yards of total offense against the Seminoles, but Alabama won't have to come anywhere close to that to cover this number with ease. 'Bama in a rout! 25* CFB "SEC Game of the Month" Play on Alabama.

25* Play on Houston (-7.5). A pair of 2-0 teams meet up on Thursday night, and while Houston has already earned a signature win by defeating Oklahoma, they are not yet getting enough respect from the linesmakers. This will be Houston's first true road game of the season, but we aren't expecting much from the Bearcats tonight - even on their home field. Perhaps it was Cincinnati's outright road win against the Big Ten's Purdue that has this line as low as it is. Bearcats won that game 18 points, but they allowed over 400 yards passing in that game and the main reason for that lopsided score was a 5-0 advantage in turnovers. Houston hasn't allowed 100 yards rushing yet this season (OU put up 70 yards, Lamar held to 15) and the Bearcats without a credible rushing threat is an offense that is in trouble. We were impressed with Houston's ability to avoid the letdown after that big Oklahoma win and that shows us they will not be rattled in a road game setting tonight. Bearcats defense gets a huge step up in class here while Houston is already confident after that big opening-season victory. We would be surprised if Houston wins this game by anything less than two touchdowns! 25* CFB "Black Reign" Play on Houston.

20* Play on San Francisco (+2.5). We do like what the Rams are doing - building their cornerstones on offense with stud RB Todd Gurley and drafting QB Jared Goff. That being said, there isn't much else on the Rams offense, and this is a tough spot for LA in Chip Kelly's regular season debut with the 49ers. We don't expect much more than a heavy dose of rushing by Gurley and the Rams, and that is not a difficult offense to stop at the NFL level. Remember, last year when San Francisco was awful, they were still able to beat an Adrian Pederson-led, rush-heavy Vikings offense in the season opener. 49ers problems are almost entirely on the offensive side of the ball, and so Chip Kelly was brought in to turn things around. We love the prospects of RB Carlos Hyde in this offensive system, and while Blaine Gabbert got a bad rap in Jacksonville, he really didn't have much help at all around him. 49ers don't have much of a receiving corps, but Kelly's offensive schemes will still allow for plays to be made. Don't like LA's chance of putting up many points here, and we value SF's home field advantage enough for them to win this game outright. 20* NFL Monday Night Showdown Play on San Francisco.

20* Play on Atlanta (-2.5). Falcons jumped out to a perfect 5-0 record last year and were 6-1 when Tampa Bay came to town, but then their season fell apart. Bucs won that game in overtime to start an extended six-game losing skid for the Falcons (also lost in the final minutes at Tampa Bay during that stretch). Atlanta has made red zone scoring and turnovers a priority during this past offseason, and expect Atlanta to start hot again this year much like they did last season. The Matt Ryan to Julio Jones combination is one of the best in all of football, and we don't expect Tampa to be able to slow that combination down much here. Atlanta put up a combined 650 yards passing in last year's two matchups compared to just 395 yards passing combined for Tampa Bay. Remember, this is a Bucs team that won just six games last season (four wins against everyone not named Atlanta) and allowed 26 ppg in the process. Atlanta seemed to beat themselves last year more than being outplayed by their opponent. With this being the first game of the year, there is no "funk" or "slump" for the Falcons to have to play their way out of. Huge edge offensively and on their home field the Falcons make easy work of the Bucs! 20* NFL "Vegas Inferno" Play on Atlanta.

20* Play on Philadelphia (-3.5). This line has dropped dramatically with the trade of Eagles QB Sam Bradford, but we still feel the Eagles will win by a wide margin against a Browns team that has many issues on both sides of the ball. It seems like every year Cleveland starts their season with a new head coach at the helm as well as a new quarterback, and this year is no different with Hue Jackson roaming the sidelines and RG3 now under center. Browns offense was dreadful in the preseason, and while the Browns went the unusual route of playing their starters for most of the first half in the final warmup game, the team still struggled to get first downs and score points. On the other side of the ball, Cleveland struggled mightily against the run and their secondary also has many question marks. Carson Wentz will be the quarterback for Philadelphia and he is healthy after missing most of the preseason. This is the perfect game for Wentz to "get his feet wet", as his running game should have no problem racking up yardage which will only open up holes in the secondary. Eagles take control of this one from the beginning and cruise to a lopsided win and cover! 20* NFL Favorite of the Month Play on Philadelphia.

20* Play on Green Bay (-4.5). Packers sorely missed WR Jordy Nelson, who was out for the year after a preseason injury. Nelson hasn't seen much action this August, either, but word out of Green Bay is that Nelson is ready to go and will be the obvious main threat of the Packers offense. Nelson's loss last year hurt Green Bay's offense, and these Week 1 lines are typically based on last year's success or failure. Jacksonville is still one of the worst teams in the league, and their defense was rebuilt in the offseason so there will still be some things to work out. Rogers can pick apart the Jags all day long, and starting the year with a statement offensively is exactly what the Packers are aiming to do - symbolic of their return to dominance in the NFC. Even in a "down year" for the Pack, Green Bay still finished with six wins away from home (including playoffs) and were a money-earning 7-3 ATS. Jags no match for the Packers on either side of the ball, and we fully expect Green Bay to win this one in a blowout! 20* NFL "Blowout Demolition" Play on Green Bay..

20* Play on Ohio State (-28.5). Buckeyes delivered a 40-point cover for us last week in their 77-10 lopsided win against an overmatched Bowling Green squad, and we look for the Buckeyes to win by another huge margin again this Saturday. We figured the Buckeyes offense would get better even with the loss of some key stars, and now without a QB controversy the Buckeyes offense looked unbeatable in racking up 417 passing yards and another 359 on the ground. This is a different spot for OSU compared to last week, with the obvious lookahead to Oklahoma next week looming large. But Tulsa isn't equipped to take advantage of that motivational disadvantage, and given their history of huge blowout losses against superior competition, we look for this one to get out of hand quickly. When the Golden Hurricane lose, they lose big, falling by double-digits in each of their last ten losses overall (six last year and four the year prior). Ohio State's defense only allowed three points against what we expect to be an overall decent BG offense (one touchdown was scored last week on an INT return), and with an overmatched team playing on the road in front of 100,000+ we don't expect much scoring from Tulsa this Saturday. Don't look for another 67-point win, but the Buckeyes still cover this number with plenty of room to spare! 20* CFB Blowout of the Month Play on Ohio State.

25* Play on Carolina (-3). Aside from the two obvious factors in this game - Carolina's massive revenge spot from the Super Bowl and Denver losing QB Peyton Manning - the Panthers match up very well against this new-look Denver team. We are not playing those two factors, however, as we typically don't put too much stock in "revenge" in the NFL, however in certain cases it is justified and this is certainly one of them. And the loss of Manning was compounded with Brock Osweiler moving on, and more recently Mark Sanchez going to Dallas. That means Trevor Siemian will be the starting quarterback and he has not impressive in the Preseason tossing just one touchdown pass along with two interceptions (some of that time playing against second-string defenses). Siemian will be looking over his shoulder as Paxton Lynch figures to take the starting job at some point this season. Denver's defense is solid once again, but they don't have enough offensive firepower to keep up. Carolina is rightfully a road favorite here, and given the motivation on the visitor's sideline from the last meeting, Carolina dominates a weak Denver offenses and cruises to an easy win and cover! 25* Play on Carolina.

25* Play on Texas (+3.5). We are looking for good things from Texas this year, with head coach Charlie Strong taking his lumps early to institute his brand of football and this is the year that Strong has to deliver. Longhorns played better overall than their 5-7 record shows, and with 15 returning starters they are poised to make an impact. Notre Dame is almost always overvalued by the linesmakers due to their tradition and national appeal, and this game is no different. Irish lost seven starters on offense from last year and six more on the defensive side of the ball. Notre Dame was a perfect 6-0 on their home field but just 4-3 straight up on the road, allowing nearly as many points per game (28) than they scored (29). It's always hard to play on the road under the lights, but even more so when it's the first game of the season with a ton of new faces on the field. No motivational disadvantages for Texas on their upcoming schedule to take focus away from this game, and we look for a strong start from the Longhorns who will go deep into their playbook, and coast to the outright win! 25* CFB "Black Reign" Play on Texas.

20* Play on Auburn (+7.5). Way too many points to lay on the road for Deshaun Watson and the Clemson Tigers - especially against a solid rushing team and in a nighttime setting. We love the points and believe Auburn has an outside chance of winning this game outright. Watson enters the season as the favorite to win the Heisman, and in a bad conference we do expect him to put up some solid numbers if he stays healthy, but in this game and against a ball-control, clock-killing offense like Auburn, the home side should be able to keep him off the field and keep this game close throughout. Clemson's biggest losses from last year's squad are on the defensive side of the ball, losing two quality big men up front and much of their secondary. Auburn's power running game is a great matchup against this unproven defense, and that is where we believe Auburn will be able to hang close. Clemson will score - we don't have any doubt about that - but it's always tough to play on the road at night and it only takes one holding penalty or a sack to kill a drive. We don't completely buy in to all the hype surrounding Clemson this year, and we look for Auburn to at least have a chance of stealing this one outright! 20* CFB "Watch Party" Play on Auburn.

20* Play on Ohio State (-27.5). Both Bowling Green and Ohio State come into this year with similar story lines, having reached double-digits in victories last year while also losing a ton of players in the offseason. BG returns just five starters on offense and six starters on defense, and Ohio State will see just three returners on each side of the ball. The big difference, however, is that Ohio State is a legit contender to win the National Championship even in a "rebuilding" year, and the fact that quarterback JT Barrett is now the "man" without any quarterback controversy should see his numbers improve drastically. Buckeyes don't rebuild - they reload - and this is the perfect spot for head coach Urban Meyer's crew to build some confidence. Bowling Green will be a solid team this year, but not in their road opener with so many new faces and in front of 100,000+ fans. Meyer has a knack for running up the score and showing no mercy against inferior teams, and this Saturday's game will be no different. Lay the points with confidence! 20* CFB "Opening Kickoff" Play on Ohio State.

20* Play on Tampa Bay (-3.5). While the combination of Browns quarterback RG3 and QB-turned-WR Prior has been a lone bright spot for the Browns through the first two Preseason games, not much else has gone right for Cleveland. Wins and losses don't matter much at this time of year, but the fact that the Browns are only putting up 12 ppg on 207 yards per game should be a concern. Browns have yet to rush for more than 102 yards and have also been held to 95 and 141 yards passing despite a couple of big plays from the RG3-Prior connection. Defense has been even worse for the Browns, who have allowed 151 and 224 yards on the ground - not just giving up some big running plays but also not being able to stop simple rushing plays up the middle. Tampa has done an average job so far this August, although they have done very well at stopping the run, and they have a massive edge in the running game here tonight. Browns may get some more big plays in the first half not only to Prior, but also Josh Gordon making his Preseason debut, but we have no faith in their second and third string offenses doing anything in the second half. Bucs hang close early and pull away late to an easy win and cover! 20* NFLX Friday Night Showdown Play on Tampa Bay.

20* Play on Carolina (-3). The third week of the Preseason is the closest thing to a true "warm up game" for the regular season, as this is the week the starters will see the most action. First-team players will typically play well into the third quarter, so for teams that are still holding their top players out, this presents a big matchup problem. Such is the case for New England, who will probably sit Tom Brady and get more reps for Jimmy Garoppolo against a first-team defense, as he is slated to play the first four games of the season while Brady sits with his suspension. Top receiving target Rob Gronkowski will also be sidelined, so there isn't much firepower on the Patriots offense. Panthers have forced three turnovers in each of their first two Preseason games, and have the obvious talent mismatch to be in a good spot to force more this Friday. Pats won their first two games, but run into a huge talent mismatch here and lose big! 20* NFL Favorite of the Month Play on Carolina.

25* Play on Atlanta (+2). We've backed the Falcons in their SU and ATS wins in each of the first two weeks, and we fully expect another easy win and cover this Thursday night on the road against the Miami Dolphins (game played in Orlando). We mentioned before that one of the main focuses for the Falcons this Preseason was to work on their red zone offense - their biggest weakness last season. Of course, to work on red zone offense, the team has to reach the red zone, and as a result Atlanta has gone deeper into their playbook than the typical NFL team does in the Preseason. Last week as a road underdog against the Browns, Atlanta put up nearly 500 yards of total offense and won outright by double-digits. Falcons have put up very good passing numbers in both of their Preseason games, but it's their running game where we think they'll have a big edge on Thursday. Miami forced four turnovers in an easy win against the NY Giants in their Preseason opener, but didn't force any turnovers last week against the Cowboys and they were crushed 41-14. Particularly worrisome is the Dolphins rush defense, which has given up 158 and 170 yards the first two weeks. Atlanta posted 224 yards rushing last week, and with this being the third preseason game, the starters will see more action this week than any other. Atlanta has a balanced offense and while Miami will have to respect the passing game, the ground is where the Falcons can do the most damage. No reason for Atlanta to be listed as the underdog here, and while we'll take the points as insurance, we expect the Falcons to win this game outright! 25* NFLX King's Ransom Play on Atlanta.

20* Play on San Francisco (+4.5). Judging by the final scores of Denver's 22-0 shutout victory against Chicago and San Francisco's 24-13 home loss against Houston, you would think the Broncos should be able to win easily against the 49ers on Saturday night. But the stat sheet tells a different story about the 49ers defeat, and after watching the entire Broncos-Bears showdown last week, we're not so sure that lopsided shutout win had more to do with Chicago's poor play than it was anything great on Denver's side. Broncos played very well defensively, however the Bears repeatedly shot themselves in the foot and Denver's offense didn't play nearly as well as the final score indicated. Mark Sanchez hooked up deep to Demaryius Thomas on a busted coverage play for their lone offensive touchdown. All scoring after that was either done via field goal, special teams (blocked punt for a touchdown), or defense (safety). Chip Kelly's offense played better than the scoreboard showed, and the 49ers finished the game with 140 more rushing yards than the Texans (236) and two more yards passing for an overall +142 total yardage advantage. Turnovers and unforced errors killed the 49ers momentum, and we do expect to see the type of offensive production we've seen from Chip Kelly's Philadelphia's teams the last few years. Remember, Kelly's Eagles put up 36+ points in each of the first three preseason games last season, and he will no doubt be looking to make up for last week's poor showing. Plenty of value backing the underdog this Saturday, especially considering the public perception of these two teams after last week's results. 20* NFLX Sunday Night Showdown Play on San Francisco.

25* Play on Minnesota (+3). Vikings and Seahawks both ended up scoring outright one-point victories as road underdogs last week, although those victories came in two completely different manners. Minnesota was able to take a ten-point lead into the fourth quarter and the only reason the game ended up close was because Cincinnati scored a late touchdown on an 80-yard punt return. Seattle won their game thanks to a last-gasp, Hail Mary completion along with a game-winning two-point conversion with no time left on the clock. The SU and ATS win by Minnesota means the Vikings are now 9-1 straight up and 8-2 against the spread with Mike Zimmer at the helm. That includes a 5-1 SU and ATS mark away from home (including a Hall of Fame Game win and cover last season although they were technically listed as the home team in that contest). Under Pete Carroll, Seattle had been one of the best teams to back in the NFL Preseason, but after a 2-2 effort last season and their lackluster play in this year's opener, it appears Carroll has toned down his NFLX "play-to-win" mentality and we no longer consider the Seahawks as a team we "must" back in August anymore. Vikings once again getting points on the road as the linesmakers continue to ignore their preseason success, and we'll jump all over this bad line at our highest 25* rating! 25* NFLX "Black Reign" Play on Minnesota.

20* Play on Atlanta (+2.5). We backed both of these teams last week, with Atlanta delivering a win and cover against Washington while Cleveland was held scoreless in the second half in a SU and ATS loss at Green Bay. We were honestly disappointed with Cleveland's effort - especially with a new head coach at the helm which is typically a favorable motivational spot. Browns offense looked good early with the starters but then completely fell apart when the first string players left the field. No reason to expect the Browns bench to get back on track here after reviewing their stat sheet which saw the Browns post just 172 total yards. Falcons offense did what we expected them to do - not only succeeding in the red zone but opening up their play book to reach the red zone. Starting QB Matt Ryan didn't do much (although he had poor field position to work with), which was a bit of a surprise considering his big numbers last August. We do think the Falcons starting unit will be given a better chance to succeed here and the Browns defense didn't look all that great against a Green Bay offense that held out key pieces (including QB Aaron Rogers). Falcons are going to be one of the teams we will take a look at all preseason long, and in this matchup it's a great spot for the Falcons offense to "out-score" a weak Cleveland scoring unit. 20* NFLX "Vegas Inferno" Play on Atlanta.

20* Runline Play on Cleveland (-1.5 Runs, -115). Indians held off the White Sox 3-1 last night, securing their seventh consecutive victory against their AL Central rival while also boosting their lead in the division to a full 6 games ahead of Detroit (who lost at Kansas City). Indians are in the midst of their final push towards a postseason berth, and we'll back them to beat up the White Sox once again tonight in a massive pitching mismatch. Sox will recall Anthony Ranaudo from Triple-A to make his second start of the season. His first and only start came against the Chicago Cubs where the White Sox were blown out 8-1. Carlos Carrasco gets the ball for Cleveland, looking to build on his back-to-back quality starts allowing 3 ER's in 7 innings of work (in both outings). Very comfortable laying the run and a half here noting the Indians haven't just won 7 straight, they've crushed the White Sox in that span outscoring them 36-13. And even average offensive numbers from the Indians at home (5.9 rpg) and the White Sox on the road (3.9 rpg) suggest the Indians will have no issue covering the 1.5 run spot before even getting into the pitching mismatch. Since acquiring Andrew Miller from the Yankees, Cleveland's bullpen has been extremely solid and we don't expect the White Sox to get back into this game late. Tribe takes an early lead and cruises to a blowout victory! 20* MLB "Runline Demolition" Play on Cleveland (-1.5 Runs).

25* Play on San Francisco (-3). Last year, the San Francisco 49ers opened the NFL Preseason with a dud, scoring just 10 points in a 13-point loss at Houston. That poor offensive showing was a sign of things to come, as the 49ers went on to dismal 5-11 showing in the regular season while being held to less than 20 points on 12 separate occasions. Enter Chip Kelly into the head coaching role, and while he certainly ruffled some feathers during his stay in Philadelphia, he has proven to have a positive impact on offense. Last August, Kelly's Eagles put up 36, 40, and 39 points in their first three Preseason games, showing Kelly doesn't take these early games lightly and he wants his offense clicking on all cylinders as soon as possible. 49ers don't yet know who their starting quarterback will be, as Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick are battling it out for the top spot. We expect Kelly to play both quarterbacks with the first team units and for both QB's to see more time than a normal team would play their first-string signal caller in an opening Preseason game. Kelly clearly doesn't prescribe to the "vanilla" game plan that many teams employ in August, and given last year's 23-10 loss against this same Houston team to start last year's Preseason, Kelly now has a clear benchmark to compare his new offense to. Nothing against Houston, but this 49ers team will come out hungry and motivated on the offensive side of the ball, and we expect to see a big number on the scoreboard as Kelly unveils his new offense in front of a national audience Sunday night! 25* NFLX TV Game of the Year Play on San Francisco.

20* Play on Seattle (+2.5). Last August, the Kansas City Chiefs went a perfect 4-0 in the Preseason while Seattle was just 2-2 straight up. With KC's perfect Preseason record last year, this line has moved a full point to point and a half in the Chiefs favor and KC is now listed as a three-point favorite in some places (as of this writing). And while the Chiefs did do very well last year - including a 14-13 win against these Seahawks - that Preseason success has not been the norm for head coach Andy Reid, and Seattle had been a very good play typically under head coach Pete Carroll. Going into last August, Carroll was 13-7 SU and 13-6-1 ATS in the Preseason with Seattle, and he still has a "winning tendency" as head coach in August games with a 25-16 SU, 25-14-2 ATS record in his Preseason career. For Kansas City, Reid entered last August with a 3-5 SU record and 2-5-1 ATS record in the Preseason with the Chiefs, and even with last year's 4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS August mark he's under .500 both straight up and ATS in the Preseason in his coaching career. We're not buying into one year's results - we'll back Seattle here and the head coach that has proven to put an emphasis on winning in these "meaningless" games throughout his career. Extra value with the line shift based on a small one-year sample, and while we'll take the points as insurance, we believe Seattle will win this game outright! 20* NFLX "Early Equation" Play on Seattle.

20* Play on Cleveland (+2.5). While we can't reveal the exact specifics of our "Secret System", we can tell you that it involves playing on certain teams in the NFL Preseason with new head coaches. There are six NFL squads with new head coaches this year, but Cleveland is the only team that fits our system this week. As an added bonus, the Browns face a Green Bay team that we expect to fade a few times this August. Packers suffered a crushing blow last August when stud WR Jordy Nelson was lost for the season with a torn ACL. When teams lose key pieces of their team to a preseason injury, the natural reaction is to put an even heavier emphasis on getting out of August healthy the next year. Nelson will likely not play at all in this game, and Packers head coach Mike McCarthy was all set to start his third-string quarterback in the Hall of Fame Game (along with a number of other younger players fighting to make the team) while having health as is only priority. The cancellation of that game has thrown Green Bay's week into a chaotic mess, as McCarthy has admitted, "Really just with the unusual flow to training camp, we still have installation practice No. 8 that we'll hit Tuesday night, and then we'll shift gears into Cleveland. Once we get past Cleveland, we'll be more into an in-season schedule." We do expect to see a similar plan by the Packers holding off on their starters and even second-string players for much of this game. Back to the Browns, new head coaches tend to win at a higher rate in the Preseason as they are looking to build a "winning environment" with their new club. Perfect opponent and situation for the Browns to do just that! 20* NFLX "Secret System" Play on Cleveland.

25* Play on Minnesota (+3). Since Mike Zimmer has taken over the reigns for Minnesota, the Vikings have become one of the best ATS teams in the NFL Preseason. Zimmer is one of those head coaches that NFL Preseason bettors love - he seems to actually care about winning. That winning also travels on the road, and while the Vikings were listed as underdogs in all four of their preseason road games, Minnesota has won outright three times. That doesn't even include last year's Hall of Fame Game (Vikings were listed as the home team), where Minnesota won 14-3 as a three-point neutral field favorite. Overall, Zimmer has led the Vikings to an 8-1 record both straight up and against the spread, with each of the last six victories coming by more than a touchdown. No reason for Minnesota to be an underdog here given Zimmer's August track record, even with this game being played in Cincinnati. We put a heavy emphasis on head coaching tendencies in the preseason, and we'll back the Vikings to cover this spread easily with an outright victory probable! 25* NFLX "Black Reign" Play on Minnesota.

20* Play on Atlanta (-3). After the Hall of Fame Game was cancelled, Thursday's Washington vs. Atlanta matchup (along with the Bucs vs. Eagles game) will officially kick off the 2016 NFL Preseason. We like what we saw from Atlanta in last year's preseason, specifically a very fast-paced offense that thrived and the momentum built from last August pushed the Falcons to a terrific 5-0 start to the regular season. We expect to see more of the same this August from Atlanta, and with an added emphasis on red zone scoring this offseason, we expect the Falcons to show a bit more effort than we would normally see in an opening NFL preseason game. Falcons were 2-0 straight up on their home field under new head coach Dan Quinn last season, and while this team certainly shot themselves in the foot repeatedly in the second half of last year, many of those mistakes (untimely turnovers) can be corrected. We don't have much to say negatively against the Redskins, however we do expect them to treat this game as a typical season-opening preseason game, which is simply to get out of town healthy and not care at all about the score. Atlanta's prime area of improvement is red zone scoring, which has a direct impact on the SU and ATS result. Falcons offense does enough on their home field to open the NFL Preseason with an easy win and cover! 20* NFLX Opening Kickoff Play on Atlanta.

20* Runline Play on St. Louis (-1.5 Runs, +109). Quick rematch featuring the exact same pitching matchup that saw St. Louis win 5-4 in Cincinnati five days ago, and now with the location switched to St. Louis we expect the Cardinals to win again - but this time by a much wider margin. Reds starter Cody Reed has now lost all eight of his team starts this season and has acquired a high 7.30 ERA in that span along with a poor 1.795 WHIP. He allowed five runs on eight hits and a walk against this Cardinals lineup last week and there's no reason to believe St. Louis can't get to Reed again tonight. Michael Wacha didn't pitch poorly at Cincy, allowing two runs over five innings while picking up the win. He's now won each of his last five decisions and hasn't allowed more than 3 ER's in any start dating back the beginning of June - a span of ten games. Even better, we find Wacha with an 8-3 TSR and low 2.08 ERA against the Reds in his career - allowing more than 2 ER's just once in those 11 meetings. That includes a streak of seven consecutive team wins which is still active, with St. Louis winning by at least two runs in five of those seven games. Reds are one of the worst road teams in all of baseball going just 19-36 while losing by 1.6 runs per game overall this season. Those numbers will only get worse as motivation begins to fade away, and we look for the Cards to take this one with ease! 20* MLB "Runline Demolition" Play on St. Louis (-1.5 Runs).

20* Runline Play on Cleveland (-1.5 Runs, -113). Great spot to back the first-place Indians, as they not only have a massive pitching mismatch tonight with Berrios going up against Salazar, but Cleveland also has a huge boost of confidence after completing a three-game sweep of Oakland as well as landing reliever Andrew Miller in one of the bigger movies prior to the trade deadline. Miller will be in uniform tonight and while it's a great boost to an already decent bullpen, it's the fact that the Indians are "buyers" that is the confidence builder - sending a message to this team that they believe they can win. Twins have nothing to play for at this point sitting 21 games behind the Indians in the AL Central and entering this game with an MLB-low 17 road victories (tied with two other clubs). Berrios has only made four starts this year but his numbers are horrible with an ERA in double digits and a WHIP well over 2.000. On the road he's even worse, allowing nine runs on six hits and nine walks in just six innings of work (two starts). Salazar has been just the opposite - extremely consistent and one of the reasons Cleveland's starting five as been one of the best in baseball. His ERA is still under three, and coming off a poor start he is set up for a great "bounce-back" effort against one of the league's worst teams. Indians won 8-0 yesterday, and they take the first game of this series in another lopsided blowout! 20* MLB "Runline Demolition" Play on Cleveland (-1.5 Runs).

20* Runline Play on LA Dodgers (-1.5 Runs, -135). Massive pitching mismatch this afternoon with the Dodgers sending Clayton Kershaw to the hill against Arizona's Pat Corbin. We don't need to spend much time singing the praises of Kershaw as he is unarguably one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, and is having another fantastic season (9-1 record, 12-1 team start record, 1.52 ERA), although we will say that he is nearly as prolific on the road as he is at home, and given the value of backing road teams he is a much more valuable road starter in terms of baseball wagering. Perhaps more importantly in terms of the runline is the fact that Pat Corbin has been a mess here at home, losing all six of his home starts with the D'Backs falling by an average of 2.6 runs per game. Dodgers bats haven't been great this year, but against Corbin (7.53 home ERA) we are confident they will put up big numbers early and let Kershaw cruise to the wire-to-wire victory. This one gets out of hand fast as Arizona falls to 4-12 at home vs. division foes this season! 20* MLB "Runline Demolition" Play on LA Dodgers (-1.5 Runs).

20* Play on Cleveland (-2). Cavs were blown out in both games played at Golden State, losing by wide margins of 15 and 33 points. But despite those lopsided scores, the only area statistically where Cleveland was struggling was their shooting. Cavs were held to 38% and 35% in those two losses, but did very well in rebounds (+8 in the two games combined) and were practically even in turnovers. Cleveland's shooting touch returned in Game Three on their home court, and they cruised to an easy 120-90 blowout, while also maintaining their dominance on the glass (+19). Cavs role players are clearly much more comfortable on their home court, and we expect to see another lopsided victory by the home side tonight. Kevin Love is listed as "probable" after suffering a concussion in Game Two, and while he sat out Thursday's game, he may see action here tonight. Love didn't play well at Golden State, but he has been far more effective at home this postseason anyway, and the way Richard Jefferson played in his absence on Thursday night means the Cavs have the option for a quick hook of Love if his struggles continue. The big concern for the Warriors is the play of star guard Curry, who has not been anywhere close to his normal self in any of the three games this series. Warriors were able to jump out to a 2-0 series lead despite Curry's poor play, but we don't believe that will be able to continue of Curry doesn't turn things around. Big edge in rebounding and the comfort of the role players on the home court are the two big factors tonight as the Cavs even the series! 20* NBA Playoffs "Watch Party" Play on Cleveland.

20* Play on Cleveland (+5.5). Not only is this a different Cavs team that Golden State faced last year in the NBA Finals (that club was missing Kevin Love, had a hobbled Kyrie Irving for Game One and missed Irving the rest of the series, and had little depth), but this is also a completely different team from the one Golden State beat twice in the regular season. Those two in-season meetings took place in December and January, and since that time, the Cavs have made a head coaching change that has resulted in an offensive-heavy, up-tempo style of play that matches up very well with the Warriors. Golden State is fortunate to even be here, as they had trailed the Thunder 3-1 prior to winning the last three games. The final two victories were heavily aided by Oklahoma City's poor three-point shooting - something Golden State shouldn't rely on in this series. Cavs three-point shooting - both in terms of volume and accuracy - has been at a season-best in these playoffs, and this Cleveland team has never been playing better. Can't say the same about Golden State, who does not look like the invincible club that set a regular season record for victories, and they looked extremely vulnerable last series against Oklahoma City. We noted in the Thunder's Game One road win here at Golden State that the opening game of a series is usually the best chance to score a road upset. Coupled with the Warriors in an obvious letdown spot after winning a Game Seven while Cleveland has rested, along with Cleveland's near victory last year in Game One of the NBA Finals with a depleted roster, and an outright Cavs win wouldn't surprise us in the least. Massive line value backing the visitor, who despite the weaker competition has looked to be the strongest team in the playoffs so far (based SOLELY on NBA Playoffs results). Grab the points for insurance as this one comes down to the wire! 20* NBA "Watch Party" Play on Cleveland.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (+7). Typically, backing the home team in a Game Seven of the NBA Playoffs is the smart play. But this series has been different than most, with the Oklahoma City Thunder already winning on the road in Game One, and Golden State needed a huge fourth quarter along with an unusually bad three-point shooting effort from the Thunder in Game Six to even force tonight's winner-takes-all matchup. Thunder finished just 3-23 from distance compared to Golden State's 21-44 three-point effort, and even with that big discrepancy the Thunder still had a shot of winning. OKC turned the ball over multiple times in the closing moments and the Warriors were able to steal the game late. If this game was close to a pick 'em, we would back the Warriors, and we do expect them to have a pretty good chance of winning this game outright. But we don't believe Oklahoma City will lose this game big, and we'll grab the points with the underdog here. Remember, OKC won outright the only time they played here in Golden State when NOT having a series lead (and therefore not "needing" to win while still able to keep home court advantage). Thunder also proved they could handle the pressure last series as they demolished a very good Spurs team. Warriors have not been able to contain OKC on the glass, and we expect the Thunder to win that battle again tonight. Warriors may win outright, but we don't count OKC out from an outright win and are very confidence they can stay within 7 points - as long as they don't go 3-23 from beyond the three-point arc again! 20* NBA "Watch Party" Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on Golden State (-7). After Oklahoma City upset the Warriors outright in Game One, they were blown out in Game Two. OKC had already accomplished what they wanted to do prior to that second game - winning a road game to steal home court advantage. Similar spot tonight as the Thunder were able to not only win both home games, but win convincingly, and they now hold a commanding 3-1 series lead. The way Golden State has played in those two road games has the Thunder already knowing that Game 6 is their best chance to win this series and advance to the NBA Finals, so they are once again in a big letdown spot here tonight. Warriors are dealing with pressure that they haven't had to face at any point this season, and we expect a desperate team to come out fighting. We just saw yesterday how Cleveland responded on their home court after a pair of disappointing losses on the road, and while we're not calling for a 40-point victory here, we do believe Golden State will take control of this one early and cruise to a blowout win and cover. Thunder are going to try to get out of town healthy and rested, putting all of their hopes on Saturday's Game Six. Huge discrepancy in terms of motivation tonight, and we'll back the home side to win this one wire-to-wire! 20* NBA "Watch Party" Play on Golden State.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (+2). Apparently winning by 28 points two days ago had no effect whatsoever on the linesmakers, who put up a very similar line tonight compared to Sunday's Game Three line. Thunder are embracing the underdog role in this series much the same way they did last series against San Antonio, and we'll back them to win outright on their home floor (though, not in the neighborhood of 30 points again) and take a commanding 3-1 series lead. Thunder lost Game Two on the road in an obvious letdown spot, but that doesn't apply here on their home court, and they have been the far more aggressive team so far in this series. OKC finished with a 50% shooting percentage and more importantly to us, they were +12 in free throw attempts and +14 in rebounds. Golden State never had to deal with any real adversity over the course of the regular season and through the first two rounds of the playoffs, and judging by Draymon Green's antics in Game Three, they are clearly rattled. Green was able to avoid suspension, but he will be closely watched by the referees tonight. Golden State has put up a historic season but this OKC team is exactly the type of squad that matches up well against them - able to match their high scoring output while much more physical in the paint (rebounds). Thunder won their last two home games against San Antonio by double-digits when they had momentum, and they clearly have it right now in this series. 20* NBA Playoffs "Watch Party" Play on Oklahoma City.

25* Play on Cleveland (-5). Cavs keep on marching through the playoffs and after winning the first two games of this series by a combined 50 points, they are now a perfect 10-0 straight up. We didn't like the idea of laying double-digits in a Conference Finals setting in Games 1 and 2, but Cleveland proved worthy of that praise by the linesmakers and the Raptors have had absolutely no answer for Cleveland's high-octane offense. Raptors clearly wanted to take away the three-point shooting that Cleveland demolished Atlanta with in the previous round, but that only opened up the paint and the Cavs have taken advantage. Kyrie Irving can't be stopped one-on-one and that is leading to a number of easy baskets at the rim. If Toronto does begin to double-team and collapse at the rim, then Cleveland's three-point game starts to take over. Raptors have not been able to step up their game since the playoffs began, and have actually lost their first home game of both of the previous playoff series. On the other side, Cleveland has come out to make a statement in their first road game of a series, beating Detroit by 10 points and Atlanta by 13 points to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. We fully expect another double-digit victory tonight as Toronto simply has had no answer and their confidence is obviously shaken. Cavs continue to roll, and we'll back them at our highest 25* rating now that the pointspread is back to respectable levels! 25* NBA "Black Reign" Play on Cleveland.

20* Play on Golden State (-8.5). After backing the Thunder in each of their last three games, we are going to fade OKC tonight in a horrible motivational spot for the visitor. Road teams tend to take the mentality of wanting to win one of the first two games on the road and return back home with home court advantage. The Thunder already accomplished that goal, and now find themselves in a big letdown spot. On the other side, Golden State is now in "panic mode", after blowing a double-digit halftime lead and letting the Thunder back in the game. That was just the third time Golden State has lost on their home court all season long, and while we thought OKC had a shot of keeping it close in the series opener, even we didn't expect OKC to win that game outright. Warriors don't let their foot off the gas pedal this time around and play with much more urgency than they did in Game One. This line is still a little high, but we like the Warriors to open a sizeable lead by half time and then cruise to the blowout win with the pointspread never being a factor! 20* NBA Playoffs "Watch Party" Play on Golden State.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (+8). Thunder have been kind to us with a pair of outright underdog victories against San Antonio in Games 5 and 6 (the line moved late in Game 6 and closed with the Thunder as a one-point home favorite), and we'll stay with them again here in Game One looking for a Golden State victory by a slim margin. Warriors have owned OKC in the regular season, winning all three matchups, but the Thunder didn't play poorly in those losses (averaged 110 ppg) and they are playing better now than at any point in the season. Let's not forget that the Thunder just got past an exceptional San Antonio team that started that series with home court advantage, and the Thunder have taken a step down from their amazing regular season performance. We do not think Golden State will lose this game outright on their home court, but the Thunder are playing with a ton of confidence right now and they have the scoring ability needed to keep up with the Warriors. OKC is 14-6 ATS playing with same-season revenge, and Game One is the best chance for a visitor to steal an upset on the road (look at both Toronto series). Thunder keep this one close and while they fall short of the outright upset, they stay well within this generous number! 20* NBA Playoffs "Watch Party" Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (+1.5). We noted in Game Five's handicapping report that the Thunder were not intimidated by this Spurs team, and the longer this series plays out, the harder it gets for San Antonio to win. Spurs age is beginning to catch up to them, and while Tony Parker has already lost a step, Tim Duncan is now becoming less and less relevant. OKC made a strong second-half comeback to steal Game Five and they now have a chance to end this series on their home court. Spurs were a big favorite to win this series and remain favored to win this Game Six outright. We don't agree, and based on the way this series has played out (including two OKC wins on the road at San Antonio), there's not a good reason for the Thunder being a home underdog here. OKC has crushed the Spurs on the glass, going +11, +7, +10, and most recently +19 in rebounds. Spurs have been able to slow the game pace down so far, but that becomes much harder on the road, and Oklahoma City put up 111 points the last time they played here (won by 14 points). Don't believe the Spurs will panic in an elimination game setting, but we also don't believe they have the stamina to keep up with this fast-paced OKC team on their home court. Don't look for a blowout here, but OKC will win this game outright and advance to face the Warriors in the Western Conference Finals! 20* NBA Playoffs "Watch Party" Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (+7). After San Antonio blew out the Thunder in Game One, this series became hotly contested and the Thunder have proven they aren't intimidated by the Spurs whatsoever. Oklahoma City came back to win Game Two (in a wild finish), and also played well at home (splitting 1-1) so this is now a a de facto best of three series. And while we wouldn't be surprised to see the Spurs win this game outright, we don't believe they will win by a wide margin, and we'll gladly take the generous points looking for another close finish tonight. OKC has outscored San Antonio by a combined 11 points since that Game One loss, and managed to out-shoot and out-rebound the Spurs in two of the last three games. Many sports bettors like to back the "zig-zag" theory in the NBA Playoffs, backing the team that lost the previous game, but we don't buy into that theory at all. These are two of the four elite teams in the league (along with Golden State and Cleveland), and they both need to be treated as such. We don't have much to say negatively against San Antonio, rather this is simply a value play as the Spurs are being asked to cover a large number against a quality foe that has proven to be a tough matchup. This game goes down to the wire with the outright winner being decided late, and regardless of whoever emerges victories, this one stays close to the end! 20* NBA Playoffs "Watch Party" Play on Oklahoma City.

25* Play on Cleveland (-5). Ever since they pulled away late in the fourth quarter of Game One, the Cavs have completely dominated this series in just about every facet of the game. They set an NBA record for three-pointers made in Game Two and were able to rest all of their starters for the final quarter and a half in a blowout. Game Three was similar to Game One, as the Hawks put up a decent run to take the lead (20-5 run to close the first half), but the Cavs completely took it over when it mattered, crushing the Hawks in the fourth quarter and winning by a comfortable double-digit margin for the third time this series. Atlanta has still not made many adjustments defensively to stop the Cavs three-point shooting, and there's no reason to believe they'll suddenly turn things around now. Being down 3-0 in a series is a huge blow to the confidence and motivation of the losing side, giving them little reason to even try to win here as it would only extend the inevitable and force them to hit the road again. Atlanta was out-rebounded 65-34 in Game Three, and if not for an uncommonly high 18 turnovers, the margin of victory would be even higher. Cleveland hasn't lost all season to the Hawks and are playing their best basketball now than at any point of the regular season. Hawks now 7-24 ATS in the second round of the playoffs after going 0-3 ATS in this series, and are a paltry 1-8 ATS playing with triple-revenge. No motivation on the home side as their season comes to an end this afternoon in yet another blowout! 25* NBA "Black Reign" Play on Cleveland.

20* Play on Cleveland (-2). Cavs put on an offensive show in Game Two, jumping out to an insurmountable 74-38 lead at halftime and finishing with an NBA record 25 made three-point attempts (record for any NBA game - not just playoffs). And while that shooting effort was indeed spectacular, Atlanta didn't do much to stop it. Hawks never once made an adjustment to run the Cleveland shooters off the three-point line, and before halftime the Hawks were clearly defeated. The final winning margin of 25 points doesn't accurately depict how much Cleveland dominated in that game - an effort we believe will propel them to another win and effort tonight. Atlanta hasn't beaten Cleveland all season long, not only losing all four games in Cleveland by double-digits (including playoffs), but also falling at home (as a favorite) in the lone game played here in Atlanta. Cavs are peaking at the right time in these playoffs and haven't lost yet, while Atlanta needed six games to get past Boston and have been held to under 41% shooting four times this postseason. Atlanta certainly is a better team on their home floor than they are as a visitor, and we do not expect the Cavs to put in 25 three-pointers again, but the Hawks also haven't showed any confidence that leads us to believe they can beat the Cavs straight up either. Cleveland is doing everything they want to at the offensive end of the floor, and there isn't any matchup for Atlanta when they have the ball that they can take advantage of (no one-on-one advantage). Atlanta is just 7-23 ATS in the second round of the playoffs, and the way they lost Game Two might have just sucked all hope out of this club. This line doesn't at all reflect the way Cleveland dominated Atlanta in the final stretch of Game One and the entire 48 minutes of Game Two, and the better team wins out again tonight! 20* NBA "Watch Party" Play on Cleveland.

20* Play on Toronto (-4.5). While we can't reveal the specific of our "Secret System", we can tell you that it involves playing on certain home teams after losing Game One of a playoff series. This is actually the same exact system we used when we backed Toronto in Game Two against the the Pacers. In that game, the Raptors were coming off an outright home loss against the Pacers as a big seven-point favorite, and rebounded to win Game Two by 11 points (also covered the spread). Toronto didn't play poorly in Game One vs. Miami, as they finished with the exact same shooting percentage (40-89, 45%) as the Heat, but Miami was better from distance and held a huge edge in rebounds, which was the deciding factor. That rebounding discrepancy did not follow what had happened in the regular season, and we don't believe Miami will be able to count on another +15 rebounding edge tonight. Typically road teams take the mentality of winning one of the two road games to begin a series and head back to their home court with home court advantage. When those road teams win the first game, they already accomplished that goal, and thus fall into a "letdown" spot in Game Two. Raptors have been far from their top form in this postseason, but have still earned our respect on their home court, going 35-11 straight up this season (including playoffs). Raptors make up for Game One's loss with a solid effort tonight - much like they did last series! 20* NBA "Secret System" Play on Toronto.

25* Play on Cleveland (-7). We viewed the fourth quarter of Game One as a possible microcosm of how this series will likely play out. Cavs proved the be the superior team over the first three quarters - building an 18-point lead towards the end of the third. Atlanta did make a strong push and try to compete - even taking a brief one-point lead with about four minutes to play. But the Cavs simply dominated down the stretch, ending the game on a commanding 17-5 run to put Atlanta away. That four quarter showed us Cleveland can win easily when properly motivated, and the Hawks simply don't have the skill to match up with this loaded Cleveland team. Hawks shooting woes - which surfaced against Boston - continued on Monday night finishing just 38% from the floor and also settling for way too many three point shots (34). Cleveland had 31 three-point attempts, however, that has been a big focus in their offense since Tyrone Lue took over as head coach so that wasn't anything out of the ordinary. The 11-point margin of victory on Monday night means Cleveland has beat Atlanta by double-digits in all three home games this season, and we expect that trend to continue again tonight. Hawks have to feel like they let their best chance of a road upset get away from them, and they manner in which they fell apart on Monday can't be viewed as a confidence-builder. Also, Cavs were able to get a "wake up call" with tight fourth quarter and still win the game, which should have them extremely focused for tonight's Game Two. Monday's loss drops Atlanta under .500 on the road this season (including playoffs), and everything statistically and motivationally points towards another double-digit win by the favorite tonight! 25* NBA "King's Ransom" Play on Cleveland.

20* Play on Toronto (-5.5). While we can't reveal the exact specifics of our "Secret System", we can tell you that it involves playing on certain home teams in a Game Seven setting. Miami did not qualify for this NBA Playoffs system today, but Toronto does, so we'll back the Raptors to win by a convincing margin and advance to the next round. After losing Game One on their home floor, Toronto came back to take Game Two by an 1-point margin, and immediately regained home court advantage with a Game Three road victory. Since then, the home team has won every game in this series. The key statistical factor so far has been Toronto's shooting percentage - when they are held under 40% shooting they are 0-3, but 3-0 when they aren't. Raptors are very comfortable offensively here at home (where they are a dominant 34-10 straight up) scoring 104.4 ppg on 45.5% shooting on the season (including playoffs). Extra buzz in the crows with this being a decisive Game Seven and therefore an obvious elimination scenario, and these types of environments tend to have a negative impact on the visiting team. By this time in a seven-game series, there are no surprises in terms of lineups, matchups, and offensive/defensive sets - this game will really just come down to which side will execute better. Toronto has been one of the most underrated teams all season long, and from a generic standpoint we are backing a team that is 34-10 on their home court against a team that owns a losing 20-24 record on the road. Raptors 7-1 straight up and 6-2 ATS at home vs. the Pacers the last few years, and they add to that mark with a fast start tonight, and a solid fourth quarter as they pull away to the decisive win and cover! 20* NBA "Secret System" Play on Toronto.

20* Play on Charlotte (-2). While we didn't expect it, Charlotte was able to pull off the big upset in Miami in Game Five, winning 90-88 as a 5.5-point underdog. That upset was particularly surprising considering how poorly Charlotte played in Miami during the first two games, losing by blowout margins of 32 and 12 points. And we're still not entirely sure the Heat lost that game at home, as they won the game statistically out-shooting Charlotte 42% to 39% and also having a 55-50 rebounding edge and more free throw attempts (Charlotte did most of their damage with a big edge in three-point shooting). As it stands now, Miami is now facing elimination on the road against a supremely confident team that has been awesome on their home court all season (32-11 straight up), and this is an awful spot for the visitor. We'll back the Hornets to win their first playoff series in 14 years behind what should be an extremely loud home crowd, and we point to Miami's two scores of 80 and 85 points the first two games played here in Charlotte as evidence. Miami was held to under 40% shooting in both of those SU and ATS losses, and have not been able to make the necessary adjustments offensively as they have been held under 90 points in three straight games now. Miami is not a good road team (20-23 straight up and ATS) and clearly lost any momentum they had after winning the first two games of this series. Hornets defense leads the way as they advance to the next round in convincing fashion! 20* NBA Playoffs "Watch Party" Play on Charlotte.

20* Play on Miami (-6). After winning the first two games at home by comfortable double-digit margins, the Miami Heat went 0-2 in Charlotte and return back home with this series knotted up at 2-2. Charlotte didn't do anything great offensively in those two home victories - in fact they were held to 40% shooting or less in both of those wins - and they haven't shot better than 43% in any of the first four games. It's was Miami's offense that struggled on the road, shooting under 40% in both games while failing to break 90 points in either defeat. We don't think that trend will continue now that they are back home where they put up 123 and 115 points in the first two games, and while Charlotte has been a formidable opponent on their home floor, they are a poor 18-25 straight up away from home this season (including playoffs) while allowing 103 ppg. Heat are 9-1 ATS at home following a close loss by 6 points or less, and the home team is a perfect 4-0 ATS so far in this series. This line is not reflective of the way both of these teams have played in Miami so far, and we'll lay the reasonable number as Miami's shooting returns to normal form in another comfortable home win and cover! 20* NBA "Watch Party" Play on Miami.

25* Play on Oklahoma City (-14.5). We backed the Thunder at our highest 25* rating on Saturday, and we'll come right back with them once again at our 25* rating to close out the Mavs with their fourth blowout victory of this series. There is nothing more demoralizing then losing back-to-back home games in a playoff series, and Dallas didn't just lose - they were blown out by a combined 40 points in those two losses. That doesn't even include the 38-point beatdown in Game One, so after accounting for their one-point win when Kevin Durant had one of the worst shooting efforts in the league over the last decade, the Thunder is still averaging +19 ppg in this series. OKC goes back home looking to close out a wounded Mavericks side that has seen Dirk Nowitzki and Derron Williams take the court at far less than 100%. Dirk will play here, but Williams will not. Dallas has proven unable to slow down the Thunder offense (outside of that Game Two disaster, of course) as OKC has put up 108, 119 and 131 points in their three victories. Thunder have been able to dictate game pace, and they are going even faster than they had in the regular season which puts Dallas at an even bigger disadvantage with all of their injury concerns. No reason to expect anything less than another blowout tonight as Dallas has now lost all motivation after those two home losses with no realistic shot of winning this series anymore. Not scared off with this big number noting the Thunder have covered the spread in all three victories, and they cover this one with a monster second half tonight! 25* NBA "Black Reign" Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on LA Clippers (-1.5). Oddsmakers are calling for a close game tonight as Portland is a slim home underdog. That line is based almost entirely on Portland's recent home play, going 18-3 straight up in their last 21 home games and 28-13 straight up at home overall this season. The problem with that line of thinking is that it completely ignores what has happened in the first two games of this series. Clippers didn't just hold serve on their home court in Games One and Two - they completely demolished the Blazers in lopsided blowouts of 20 and 21 points while holding Portland to under 40% shooting in both games. Blazers don't have history on their side as the previous two seasons saw them lose each of their first three games in their playoff series, and while some are pointing towards their home record, it's worth noting the Clippers won here by a comfortable 11-point margin the last time they visited Portland (back in January when they easily covered the spread as 3.5-point road favorites). LA was far better shooting the ball than the Blazers in the first two games, but were also much better rebounding and in free throw attempts - two stats that tend to "travel" on the road. LA is a profitable 12-3 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less, and we love everything we're seeing from them on the defensive end of the court. Clippers don't get much press out West as the Warriors, Spurs, and Thunder receive the bulk of the attention, but LA has been playing pretty well down the stretch and especially well in this series. Clippers continue to frustrate Portland and win this game by a comfortable margin! 20* NBA "Late Night Bailout" Play on LA Clippers.

25* Play on Oklahoma City (-9). We backed the Thunder in their Game Three blowout road win at Dallas, but we were still surprised by the margin of victory. OKC was due for a "bounce-back" effort after laying an egg in their outright Game Two home loss (Kevin Durant was due for a big game in particular), and they delivered with a resounding 131-102 landslide victory. That's two complete blowouts by the Thunder in the first three games of this series (also won by 38 points in Game One), and while the Mavs were able to come back after that first lopsided loss with a stunning upset, we don't believe they'll catch Oklahoma City off guard this time around. Dirk Nowitzki is still playing with a hurt right knee, and Deron Williams didn't play at all in Game two nursing a hernia that might keep him out of this game as well. If Williams does play, he won't be at 100%, and Dallas is running out of offensive play makers while facing one of the elite scoring offenses in the league. It's not just the shooting that is leading OKC to victory - they are +26 in rebounds and now have the lower seed lacking confidence. Don't believe Kevin Durant is going to go ice cold again, and we simply don't see anyway Dallas can keep up with OKC's scoring with all of their injury concerns. Not calling for a 30+ point blowout tonight, but we do believe the Thunder win by another big margin, and we'll back them to cover this number at our highest 25* rating! 25* NBA "King's Ransom" Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (-8.5). After pulling an improbable upset in Game Two as a 14-point road underdog, the Dallas Mavericks are a 9-point home underdog in some spots in Game Three. Accounting for home court advantage, that is the equivalent of a 15-point line (higher than both Game 1 and Game 2), and the linesmakers are clearly begging for action on the home underdog tonight. We're not biting, and counting on an obvious bounce-back spot for Oklahoma City in general (and Kevin Durant in particular) along with a number of injuries to key Dallas players, we expect the Thunder to win this game in a blowout - much like they did in Game One. Durant finished just 7-33 shooting in that Game 2 loss, one of the worst shooting efforts in the NBA over the last 15 years (including regular season). That is clearly far from the norm for Durant, who has established himself as one of the top players in the league and has been extremely consistent with his jump shot in his career. We don't have any concerns of Durant's shot coming back, and Dallas should be even more concerned about their own roster. Dirk Nowitzki is listed as questionable, and while we do expect him to play here he's definitely not going to be 100% with a bruised knee. Both of the Mavericks starting guards are also banged up, and Derron Williams wasn't able to finish Game Two. Thunder had won the five previous matchups between both teams this season prior to Game Two, scoring at least 108 points in all five victories. Nothing like a dismal shooting effort and an embarrassing home loss to regain focus, and all statistical and motivational factors point towards a blowout win by the favorite tonight! 20* NBA Trap Game of the Month Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Runline Play on LA Dodgers (-1.5 Runs, -149). Dodgers ended Atlanta's four-game winning streak in style, scoring two runs in the tenth inning for a 5-3 win, and now they have their ace on the mound Thursday afternoon with a great chance to take this series. Linesmakers don't give the Braves much of a chance here, listing the Dodgers as a monster favorite, and while we're not comfortable laying that high price, we have no problem laying the run and a half with Kershaw to bring this price way down. Losing in extra innings is always a blow to the losing team, and having to come back less than 24 hours later usually results in a motivational letdown spot. That is certainly true when letting one get away and then having to come right back and take on an ace pitcher. Kershaw has dominated the Braves in his career, going 3-0 (6-2 team start record) with a low 1.54 ERA, and in his two most recent outings (once last year and once the season prior) he's allowed one combined earned run over 16 innings in a pair of victories. Atlanta counters with Matt Wisler, who has not been sharp and the Braves have lost each of his two starts by three runs each. No reason to believe Atlanta will get to Kershaw here, as the Braves are hitting just .215 as a team. Dodgers win this one by a big margin! 20* MLB Runline Demolition Play on LA Dodgers (-1.5 Runs).

20* Play on Cleveland (-2). Pistons had almost everything go their way in Game One, including one of their better shooting efforts of the season and an great 15-29 shooting effort from distance, and they still came up five points short on the road in a 106-101 loss. Detroit was also good statistically in rebounds and turnovers (didn't win those stats but were not outplayed in those area either) so there isn't really a statistical area where they can hope to improve. We believe the Pistons missed their best opportunity to pull off an upset on the road in this series, and we look for Cleveland to deliver a dominant effort here in Game Two and win this one by a wide margin. The way the Cavs featured both Irving and Love into to offensive game plan not only took a ton of pressure off LeBron James to handle the scoring load (something Cleveland really missed in the NBA Finals last year when both those players were injured) and the Pistons never could make the proper adjustments on how to defend. Cleveland made the necessary defensive adjustments at halftime shutting down Morris, but the Pistons simply don't have the number of offensive options Cleveland has. Don't believe Detroit will be able to make 50%+ of their three-point shots again Wednesday night, and a focused Cavs team comes out and takes control early against an overmatched foe tonight! 20* NBA Playoffs "Watch Party" Play on Cleveland.

20* Play on Boston (+6.5). Not only do we believe the Celtics can cover this generous number, we give Boston a decent chance of winning this game outright and knotting up this series with Atlanta at 1-1. Celtics were ice cold to begin Game One, with the Hawks jumping out to a double-digit lead within the first seven minutes, and held an overwhelming 17-point lead at halftime. Celtics figured things out in the second half, however, scoring 31 points in the third quarter and 36 points in the fourth, but still couldn't overcome that awful first half effort and eventually fell by one point. With a better start in Game Two, Boston has every realistic chance to take this game outright, and if anything that second half of Game One actually gives Boston the edge in confidence going into tonight. Celtics finished just 36% from the floor but still managed to do very well in the stat sheet in terms of rebounds (including 15 offensive boards). Boston is 20-8 ATS playing with double-revenge, and if Atlanta can only win by a slim margin when Boston shoots 36%, then how do they expect to cover a big number if the Celtics put forth even an average shooting effort? C's keep this one close with a chance to steal the outright win late! 20* NBA "Vegas Inferno" Play on Boston.

20* Play on Toronto (-7). While we can't reveal the exact specifics of our "Secret System", we can tell you that it involves playing against certain teams after they win a playoff game on the road. For this game specifically, Indiana came in with the mindset looking to win one of the two games and go back home with home court advantage. They have already accomplished that goal, as a massive edge in three-point shooting led them to pull off the outright upset in Game One, winning 100-90 as a seven-point underdog. Raptors were ice cold from distance, going just 4-19 from beyond the arc while the Pacers connected on 11 of their 21 three-point attempts. That +21 points in three-pointers was really the only reason Indiana won, and a stat we don't believe they'll be able to dominate on a game-by-game basis. Going unnoticed in the loss is the fact that Toronto was +9 in free throw attempts and +16 in rebounds - even better considering those stats tend to favor the winning team. Free throw attempts and rebounds are more stable statistics, meaning they tend to stay true throughout a series more so than three-point shooting, which can change dramatically from one game to the next. Obvious motivational edge to the home town Raptors are are virtually in a "must-win" spot after already losing home court advantage, while Indiana is in the obvious letdown after already doing what they set out to do. Toronto laid an egg in the series opener, but they come back strong and win this one in a blowout! 20* NBA "Secret System" Play on Toronto.

20* Play on Toronto (-6.5). Even when Indiana caught fire down the final stretch of the regular season (won six of their last seven games), they ran into a buzz saw here in Toronto losing 111-98 as a five-point road favorite. While Golden State, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, and Cleveland has (rightfully) received the bulk of the national attention, Toronto enters the postseason wildly underrated, and they have quietly built a solid home court advantage going 32-9 straight up here at home this season. If that final regular season meeting was any indication, Toronto's home court advantage will prove to be too much for Indiana to overcome and we'll back Toronto to win by a comfortable margin in this series opener. Raptors went 3-1 both straight up and ATS vs. the Pacers in the regular season, winning and covering both games played here in Toronto. Raptors also built momentum with four straight victories to close the regular season, and their scoring average of 105 ppg in home games compared to Indiana's 102 ppg allowed on the road is the key matchup here. Raptors aren't just "happy to be here", and they make a statement Saturday afternoon! 20* NBA "Early Equation" Play on Toronto.

20* Runline Play on Chicago White Sox (-1.5 Runs, +147). Indians took control early and never looked back in a 7-1 blowout yesterday in the home opener for the White Sox. Since Cleveland was rained out in their third game of their home series, and Chicago played four games in their opening series at Oakland, yesterday's game featured the Indians #3 starter against the #5 starter in the White Sox rotation. Now the pitching edge favors the White Sox, who send ace Chris Sale to the hill against Cody Anderson. Sale doesn't have great numbers vs. the Indians thanks to some rough outings early in his career, but he's turned things around the last couple of years, allowing only eight earned runs in his last six starts combined - allowing 1 or 0 earned runs in four of his last six meetings. Indians looked lost against left-handed David Price in their season opener and now face another tough lefty here. Very confident laying the run and a half with the White Sox in this pitching matchup and we can avoid laying the high price while instead picking up an underdog return for our investment on the runline. White Sox are 12-3 at home after a loss by four or more runs, and behind Sale they win this one by a comfortable margin! 20* MLB "Runline Demolition" Play on Chicago White Sox (-1.5 Runs).

20* Play on LA Clippers (-11). One night after destroying the Lakers by 22 points, the LA Clippers take on their in-city rivals again tonight, this time with the Lakers as the host. Of course, there is absolutely no travels both teams share the Staples Center as their home court, and while there is a slight advantage now for the Lakers with their fans making up the majority of the crowd, there really isn't much of a difference on the court. Don't believe the Lakers will suddenly get 10+ points better in a 24-hour span, as they looked completely lost last night allowing the Clippers to shoot 51% from the field while making just 31% of their shot attempts themselves. An immediate revenge spot is usually seen as a good opportunity to back the team that lost the first leg of a back-to-back situation, but that theory really only applies if the teams are evenly matched or if the better team was upset in the first game. Lakers don't have any motivation to play here, already owning the worst record in the Western Conference, and their team shooting percentages of well under 40% in four of their last five games suggest this team has already mentally checked out and is now looking forward to the offseason. Clippers trying to build momentum towards the playoffs and have done well the last few weeks, going 6-1 straight up while putting up impressive numbers on both ends of the court. No reason to expect a result much different from last night, and we'll lay the points as the Lakers give little effort once again! 20* NBA "Blowout Demolition" Play on LA Clippers.

25* Play on Villanova (+3). Wildcats came through for us with a solid first half and a huge second half to blow out Oklahoma, which has pretty much put to rest their label of not being able to handle the pressure of the NCAA Tournament. Wins against the Sooners, as well as Kansas and Miami, give Villanova three very credible victories in this tournament, and we would argue those three opponents are better than anyone North Carolina has faced to this point. UNC has been brilliant offensively - especially from distance which has not been the norm this season. Even if we include their hot shooting in this tournament, the Tar Heels are only shooting a little under 32% from beyond the three-point arc on the season. And as hot as UNC has been offensively, they're not even as hot as Villanova has been, as the Wildcats have shot 58% or better in four of their last five games overall, including a crazy 71% shooting effort vs. Oklahoma on Saturday. We loved the ability of Villanova to guard the perimeter shooters of the Sooners, and while that matchup also applies here, it's the Wildcats size down in the paint that is going to give UNC the most trouble on both ends of the court. Villanova is 13-4 ATS against non-conference opponents this season, and they hoist the trophy tonight with an outright victory! 25* Play on Villanova.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (-3). This is the fourth meeting this season between the Thunder and Rockets, and offense has been the key factor in the first three matchups with both teams putting up at least 105 points in every game. Linesmakers expect another shootout this afternoon with an over/under hovering around 220, and while we don't have an opinion on the total, we do like Oklahoma City's chances of covering this small number. Thunder have been building momentum for the postseason over the last few weeks winning nine of their last ten games overall (the only loss occurred when Kevin Durant did not play versus Detroit). Even better than that 9-1 winning run is the fact that half of those ten games came on the road, and the Thunder put up no less than 111 points in all nine of those victories. With OKC's offense peaking and now facing a Houston defense that never really gelled all season long (allow 107 ppg), we believe the Thunder will be able to score at will this afternoon. Houston managed to cover the spread in the first three meetings this season, but now Oklahoma City is playing their best basketball of the season and they are asked to cover the smallest line of the four in-season matchups vs. Houston. Rockets just 2-10 ATS at home playing with revenge, and they are unable to slow down this surging Thunder offense! 20* NBA "Watch Party" Play on Oklahoma City.

25* Play on Villanova (-2). Wildcats have been perfect in this NCAA Tournament going a perfect 4-0 ATS and covering each of those four games by a minimum of seven points each. Last weekend was highlighted by an outright victory over the #1 seeded team in this tournament, and that win vs. Kansas was no fluke as they took control of that contests vs. the Jayhawks and never let up. Villanova didn't have the type of shot shooting vs. Kansas as they did in their previous three games, but they showed they can win playing defense as well. In this matchup against a very good Oklahoma side, they won't face the type of defense that gave them some problems against Kansas, and they'll be able to resume their fast-paced, high-scoring game style which they worked to perfection all season long. Oklahoma is pretty much a one-man team and that type of game style doesn't work against the elite teams in the country. Villanova is good enough - especially on the perimeter - to shut down Oklahoma's outside shooting and we look for them to control this game from the outset. Sooners have the best player on the court but Villanova is the better overall team on both ends of the court. With this small line, we're basically picking the outright winner and the Wildcats prove their worth in their fifth consecutive ATS cover! 25* NCAA Tournament Game of the Year on Villanova.

20* Play on Nevada (-4). Home team split the first two games of this best-of-three series straight up, Nevada has clearly been the better team statistically in both of those games, and we'll back them to finish the job in style Friday night. Nevada has been perfect ATS in this tournament, going 5-0 against the spread including four straight games hitting 50% or more of their shot attempts leading up to this Game Three. Wolfpack shot 50% in their 86-83 loss at Morehead State, and duplicated that feat on Wednesday in their 77-68 win. Morehead State has been great at home this season but own a losing 9-11 mark on the road where their shooting drops to 41%. That trend was on display in their first two games, hitting 48% in their home win but just 38% in their road loss. And with Nevada winning by a comfortable 9-point margin despite turning the ball over 21 times (only 11 turnovers in Game One), Morehead State knows they missed their chance to steal one of these two road games for the Championship. We look for Nevada to win by an even bigger margin tonight, with another solid offensive effort and better ball control. Great effort for Morehead State to get here, but Nevada is the better team with the home court advantage that has proved unbeatable in this tournament! 20* CBI TMNT Championship Play on Nevada.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (-3.5). We backed the Thunder last night in their blowout win and cover at Toronto, and we'll back them to win big again tonight - this time on the road at Detroit. While the Pistons are certainly a step down in class compared to the Raptors, the pointspread is nearly identical to last night's game vs. Toronto since Oklahoma City plays this game without rest. That is the norm for the linesmaker, however, that rest factor really doesn't apply when our team held such a big lead entering the final quarter, and was able to rest key players down the stretch. Thunder were up by a huge 23-point margin entering the fourth quarter last night, and simply cruised during the final frame to the easy victory. Don't expect rest to be a factor here, and many of the same matchup advantages we gave to the Thunder last night also apply in this game. Like Toronto, Detroit likes to play at a fast tempo, which plays right into OKC's preferred style. And while Detroit on paper seems to be playing well right now winning five of their last six games overall, all six of those contests have come on their home floor and against many of the weaker teams in the league (Pistons were favored in all six of those games and favored by 6 or more points in four of those five victories). Thunder has dominated this series in recent years including a 16-point win earlier this season. Like last night, OKC has too much offense for Detroit to handle, and they win this game by a comfortable margin! 20* Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on Oklahoma City (-2.5). After blowing out San Antonio's "B" Team on Saturday (Spurs rested Parker, Leonard, and Aldridge), we'll back the Thunder on the road tonight as a very small favorite at Toronto. OKC has now won seven straight games overall, and have covered the spread in six of their last eight games, as they build momentum towards the playoffs. Toronto has been about 2 games behind Cleveland for what seems for the past few months, and their two recent losses against Boston and Houston may have sealed their fate as the #2 seed in the East. Raptors offense has cooled off in recent weeks, having just one game shooting 50% or better in their last 12. Offense is needed against an Oklahoma City team averaging 110 points per game, and while the home teams usually dictate game tempo, Toronto likes to play fast so we don't see Oklahoma City being taken out of their comfort zone here. Raptors were able to pull off an upset at Oklahoma City in the first week of the season (despite being out-shot 48% to 42%), but that will only add to the motivation of the visitor tonight. Too much offense from the Thunder as they pull away in the fourth quarter to an easy win and cover! 20* Play on Oklahoma City.

20* Play on Virginia (-7.5). Syracuse has had the easiest path to the Elite Eight, getting past #7 Dayton in the first round, then playing a pair of double-digit seeded teams coming off big upsets in #15 Middle Tennessee State and #11 Gonzaga. Huge step up in class for the Orange now, taking on a #1 seed Virginia team that has somehow been flying under the radar despite winning easily in all three of their game this tournament - wins by a combined 57 points. Cavaliers will face their toughest test offensively, and we don't believe they'll be in the neighborhood of their first three games in terms of shooting percentage (55%, 56%, 56%), but we do think this team is more than capable of handling Boeheim's famous zone defense and will again win by a comfortable margin. Virginia doesn't turn the ball over, and is very patient offensively with balanced scoring and having a number of shooters - all necessary to beat the Syracuse zone defense. Virginia won the lone in-season matchup this year by eight points (on their home court), but that final score wasn't indicative of how the game played out. Syracuse only shot 39% from the field while Virginia proved they could handle the zone, making 57% of their shot attempts. We don't trust Syracuse's offense which shot 43% from the field all season long, and 42% from the floor away from home. Virginia with all the momentum here and the confidence after their easy in-season victory, and they win this one big! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Virginia.

20* Play on Indiana (+5.5). For the first time in this tournament, things went according to play last night as all four top seeds (and favorite) were able to win by comfortable double-digit margins (also went a perfect 4-0 ATS). We don't believe that trend will continue on Friday night, and we look for an underrated Indiana Hoosiers team to upset the #1 seed North Carolina in this matchup. Hoosiers won the Big Ten Conference regular season but never really received much fanfare for that accomplishment. More importantly for this matchup, they bring a dynamic offense and an active rebounding attack (especially on the offensive glass) that can give North Carolina trouble. The Tar Heels are not an unbeatable team, but in a season that was really lacking a truly dominant school, UNC appears to be better than they actually are. We don't like UNC's perimeter shooting, and the Hoosiers excel in that area. In fact, Indiana is shooting over 50% from the floor on the season, and while North Carolina likes to take opponents out of their comfort zone by pushing the tempo, that fast game pace plays perfectly into what Indiana wants to do. Hoosiers took the "underdog" role to heart last weekend as they beat Kentucky by 6 points as a 3.5-point dog, and we expect a similar effort tonight in a hard fought game as the Hoosiers pull off the outright upset late! 20* CBB "Sweet 16 Shocker" Play on Indiana.

20* Play on Villanova (-4). Wildcats have been kind to us with easy ATS covers against both UNC Asheville and Iowa, winning those games outright by a combined 50 points and covering the spread on both contests by a combined 26.5 points. Linesmakers were way off in both of those games, and we feel they still aren't giving Villanova enough credit on Thursday night. Miami's final score against Wichita State was not indicative of how that game played out. Hurricanes jumped out to a 20-point lead very early in that game vs. the Shockers, but couldn't hold on as Wichita State fought all the way the back to take the lead late in the second half. Miami did have one final surge to pull away late, but they were out-played for the majority of the 40 minutes. Miami's style of play is to "out-score" the other team, which works well in the ACC but at this point of the tournament you need to play well on the other end of the court also. Don't have faith in the 'Canes ability to slow down a Villanova offense that is scoring 78 ppg on the season, and is peaking at the right time hitting 58% and 59% of their shot attempts in the first two rounds. Wildcats now 18-9 ATS vs. non-conference opponents, and we give them the decisive edge on the defensive end of the floor which ends up being the difference here. Villanova pulls away in the second half en route to their third consecutive decisive victory in this tournament! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Villanova.

20* Play on Cleveland (-11). Cavs in general, and LeBron James in particular, are getting into "playoff mode", and this is the perfect spot and opponent to back the Cavs as we fully expect the home side to win in an absolute blowout on Wednesday night. LeBron James has gone to his social media blackout early, which has been his customary routine to focus on basketball and not get caught up in all the off-court drama. LeBron went off for 33-11-11 his last time out, putting his money where his mouth is, and that type of mentality tends to spread to the rest of the team when the leader is talking the talk and walking the walk. Milwaukee is going to be like a deer in headlights (pun intended) here, as they are awful away from home to begin with going just 9-27 straight up while allowing 104 ppg. Bucks might be at the start of an extended losing skid, as they showed little effort in being out-rebounded by 30 in their last two games combined - a pair of losses despite the Bucks shooting well over 50% from the floor. That's exactly the type of stat sheet that reflects a team that is only concerned about scoring and nothing else (not defense, not rebounding). Cavs covered a similar 10.5-point number the last time these teams met up (also in Cleveland) winning by 15 points, and these two teams are further apart now than in that earlier matchup - especially in terms of focus and motivation. Cleveland wins this one in a huge blowout! 20* NBA "Blowout Demolition" Play on Cleveland.

20* Play on Oregon (-6.5). St. Joe's was one tenth of one second away from going to overtime, but lady luck was on their side as Cincinnati's game-tying dunk was ruled after the buzzer. That sets up a horrible matchup for St. Joe's in this second round, as the their style of trying to "out-score" their opponents while paying little attention to the defensive end of the court does not match up well against this Oregon Ducks team. That style of play suits them well in conference and against teams without much offensive fire power, but Oregon also loves to run and is scoring 79 ppg on 47% shooting. More importantly for this game, Oregon actually does play defense. Ducks allow 69 ppg which doesn't sound great, but in the context of a fast-paced game and in an offensive-minded conference, those defensive aren't too bad considering they only give up 42% shooting overall. Oregon clearly heard the whispers of them not being worthy of a #1 seed (we tend to agree with that argument) and came out ready to prove a point in their 39-point beat down against Holy Cross on Friday night. Any motivation Oregon had from feeling slighted will surely be intact for this game as well considering the lack of respect from the linesmaker, and we expect Oregon to play with pride as they win in another rout! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Oregon.

25* Play on Xavier (-4.5). We were impressed with the way Wisconsin played in the second half of conference play, staying under the radar despite picking up some big wins in the Big Ten Conference. But the Badgers hit a wall right at the end, losing by 11 points in their regular season finale at Purdue, and then falling by 12 points in an awful showing against a bad Nebraska team in the Big Ten Conference Tournament (as a 5.5-point favorite). We're not even sure they "won" on Friday, as Pittsburgh seemed to "lose" an ugly game that nobody seemed to want. Badgers finished that victory with just 47 points scored (won 47-43), shooting just 32% from the floor in one of the most boring NCAA Tournament games we have ever seen. It's not that we don't appreciate good defense, but the Badgers are playing with absolutely zero confidence offensively right now, and in a matchup against a very good offensive team like Xavier we don't give Wisconsin a chance to stay close to the Musketeers here. Longtime clients already know that we have been high on this Xavier team all season long, and we'll go to the well one more time backing the Musketeers to run right past the slumping Badgers. Xavier's win and cover on Friday night means they are now 22-8 ATS in NCAA Tournament games, and they play at a fast tempo that can really get Wisconsin out of their comfort zone. Badgers will no doubt try to slow this game down, but that only means the Badgers will have fewer chances to score in transition and we don't see them doing any damage in a half-court offense against an Xavier defense that is only allowing 41.5% shooting all season long, and even better 40.5% shooting away from home. Badgers lulled Pittsburgh to sleep on Friday, but can't keep up with the fast-paced Musketeers in this matchup! 25* CBB "King's Ransom" Play on Xavier.

20* Play on Villanova (-6.5). Wildcats came through for us on Friday when they blew out UNC Asheville by 30 points (as a 17.5-point favorite), and while the fact that Villanova beat an overmatched team isn't all that impressive, what is impressive is that fact that the Wildcats were able to stay focused and run up the score when so many other teams in this tournament have been unable to do so. Different kind of challenge for Villanova this time, as they face an Iowa team that at one point of the season was highly ranked, and the Wildcats won't be lured into thinking this game will be a cakewalk. We do, however, still expect Villanova to win this one big - not by 30 points, but by double-digits nonetheless. We were very curious to see how the Hawkeyes would come out and play after ending their regular season on a 1-5 SU and ATS losing skid (all five losses came outright as favorites) and then falling outright in their Big Ten Conference Tournament opener in an embarrassing loss (as a 10.5-point favorite) vs. Illinois. Iowa did advance past Temple, but they were far from impressive. Hawkeyes needed overtime after blowout a lead late in regulation, and finished on the wrong end of a 46% to 35% shooting discrepancy as well as -11 in rebounds. If not for a season-best 3 turnovers committed all game, the Hawkeyes would be sitting at home watching Villanova play on television. Temple has their issues offensively and Iowa was able to outlast the Owls. Villanova is a different animal all together and is a horrible matchup - especially in terms of scoring. Wildcats average 77 points per game and have scored 80+ in six of their last eight overall. Plus, Villanova is by far the better defensive team, so we give a sizeable edge to the favorite on both ends of the floor. Hawkeyes got away with playing with fire Friday night and survived - they don't against a much better team this Sunday! 20* CBB "Early Equation" Play on Villanova.

25* Play on Kansas (-8). Connecticut has to feel extremely fortunate to have made it this far, not only overcoming a nine-point deficit at halftime against Colorado but then hanging on to hold off the Buffaloes after they made a furious rally late in the game. Huskies finished 22-23 from the free throw line to win a game they should have lost by all accounts. Anything close to a similar overall effort against Kansas will certainly result in a blowout loss, and after watching Kansas play extremely focused in their 26-point thrashing of overmatched Austin Peay, we'll back the Jayhawks to win by a wide margin once again on Saturday night. Kansas was unbeatable in the second half of the season and have upped their winning streak to 15 games in a row. Ten of those 15 victories came against fellow NCAA Tournament teams, and they deserved to be the number one overall seeded team in this tournament. Huskies have good defensive numbers but we don't believe they'll be able to shut down a Kansas offense that is putting up 82 ppg on 50% shooting. Kansas already 9-2 ATS vs. non-conference foes this year and that streak continues as the Jayhawks win again by double-digits! 25* Tournament Favorite of the Year Play on Kansas.

20* Play on Duke (-6). Blue Devils got a huge break with Yale upsetting Baylor on Thursday. Not only is Yale a far better matchup for Duke on the court, but now the Blue Devils face an opponent that is in a massive "letdown" spot and an obvious "play-against" situation. This isn't the first time these teams have faced each other, as Duke won by a wide 81-61 margin on their home court back in late November, covering the spread as big 14.5-point chalk. Yale was held to 40% shooting in the loss, and the blue Devils finished with twice as many free throw attempts (24) than the Bulldogs (12). Yale out-shot Baylor 53% to 44% on Thursday, and also had a virtual 2:1 edge in free throw attempts over the Bears. Don't expect a repeat performance in those two offensive categories, and we expect this one to end up much in the same manner as the first matchup this season. Yale keeps it close early, but Duke pulls away late and covers this one with relative ease! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Duke.

20* Play on Wichita State (-2). Not falling for the linesmakers trap on Saturday, as they are begging for action on the Hurricanes having the #3 seed Miami listed as an underdog against #11 seed Wichita State. Shockers have already won twice this week, and in pretty convincing fashion. First, they handled Vanderbilt in one of the play-in games, beating the Commodores by a wide 20-point margin. More impressive was they way they dispatched Arizona on Thursday, controlling that game from the outset and winning by a comfortable 10-point margin despite shooting only 41% from the floor and making just 3 of their 20 three point shots. Shockers came in underrated thanks to their early exit from their conference tournament, but are playing like a top seeded team in terms of confidence. Miami did well in the ACC since they were one of a few good offensive teams, but they are not good defensively and this is where Wichita State has the big edge. Big edge to the Shocker in terms of defense and rebounding, and we look for Wichita State to once again advance in impressive fashion! 20* CBB "High Noon" Showdown Play on Wichita State.

25* Play on Notre Dame (-3.5). Wolverines (barely) came through for us on Wednesday night as they hung on late to get past a pesky Tulsa team - a game Michigan should have won by a comfortable margin. Michigan did not have good shooting night (especially from distance) and were repeatedly out-muscled in the paint, allowing Tulsa to get way too many layup attempts and offensive rebounds. We don't give the Wolverines a chance of getting past a much tougher Notre Dame side, and we'll back the Fighting Irish at our highest 25* rating to win this game by a big margin. Irish were embarrassed by North Carolina in the ACC Tournament after they got past Duke the day before, and that lopsided loss is likely the reason this line is so low. That game was not indicative of how Notre Dame has played this season, however, and we feel they match up extremely well against a Michigan team that doesn't like to play defense and is very dependent on their inconsistent outside shooting. Outside of their big upset win against Indiana in the Big Ten Tournament, Michigan has had trouble against teams that are better than them, and this matchup certainly fits that description. With three quality wins against North Carolina, Louisville, and Duke in the last month and a half, the Irish have the confidence and we expect them to out-muscle the Wolverines all game long as they take this one by double-digits! 25* CBB "Black Reign" Play on Notre Dame.

20* Play on Xavier (-13). Musketeers would have had a legit argument for a #1 seed in this NCAA Tournament if they had won the Big East Tournament. As it stands, they are a #2 seed with a very easy matchup on Friday night against an untested Weber State squad. In the eyes of the linesmaker, Weber State's toughest game this season was on the road against South Dakota State - a game Weber State lost by 17 points. They were never listed higher than a six-point underdog all season long. That paints a clear picture of the type of schedule Weber State has played this season, and they still come into this game with three more losses than Xavier. Musketeers have not lost back-to-back games all season, and played up after a loss in their first four opportunities. Musketeers are very good offensively, and while both teams prefer to play at an up-tempo game pace, that just means more possessions and therefore more opportunities for our favorite to cover the spread. Musketeers traditionally do very well at the betting window in the NCAA Tournament going 21-8 against the spread. We look for that trend to continue as Xavier dominates this game from the outset, and wins this one by 20+ points! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Xavier.

20* Play on Villanova (-17.5). Nobody questions whether or not Villanova will beat UNC Asheville outright, the question is whether or not the Wildcats will run up the score. And based on the way Villanova blew out overmatched opponents over the course of the season (especially early in the year vs. unworthy non-conference foes), we think they will cover this big number with plenty of room to spare. Wildcats are coming off a loss in the Big East Championship Game, which right off the bat has them in a "play-on" spot as they are in the obvious bounce-back situation. More importantly, Villanova showed no mercy in beating seven opponents by at least 20 points - and that's just their games prior to January! UNC Asheville has played one legitimately tough opponent this season - that was on the road at Texas A&M - and they were blown out 75-47 (in a non-lined game). Wildcats have better scoring and shooting numbers both offensively and defensively, and that doesn't even account for the obvious strength of schedule difference. Wildcats 26-12 ATS vs. non-conference foes and that streak continues as they show no mercy in an absolute blowout in the first round! 20* CBB "Early Equation" Play on Villanova.

20* Play on Seton Hall (+1.5). Gonzaga is the type of team that garners a ton of attention from sports bettors who "check in" around the beginning of March but don't follow the regular season. Gonzaga has had tremendous success in this tournament - especially for a school out of a mid-major conference - but they have taken a step down this year. The Zags were never an underdog in non-conference play, but still struggled against the better teams they faced. They even lost two of three games against the only other good team in conference (St. Mary's), although they did beat the Gaels in their conference tournament championship game. Seton Hall has stayed under the radar, which is amazing considering they just beat Villanova and Xavier - two teams that had a legit claim to a #1 seed - in back-to-back games last week. We're thrilled Gonzaga is listed as the favorite (due almost entirely to public perception based on previous seasons), as we feel Seton Hall is easily the better team. Zags may look a bit better statistically, but that is heavily influenced by their much easier schedule. Seton Hall is playing with all the momentum and confidence in the world right now, and after beating the Musketeers and Wildcats last week, this Gonzaga team is a big step down in class. Seton Hall wins this one easily! 20* CBB "Upset Shocker" Play on Seton Hall.

25* Play on Providence (-2). Ninth-seeded Providence is the lower seed in this matchup with #8 USC, but the linesmaker has the Trojans listed as a small underdog. We agree with the linesmakers and believe Providence not only wins this game outright, but wins by a comfortable margin. USC rode a strong home court advantage through the better part of the season, but then collapsed late in losing seven of their last ten games outright to close the year. All seven of those losses came by a minimum of 7 points each, and four of their last five losses have come by a big double-digit margin. So now USC enters this tournament lacking any momentum, and they have not been a good team away from their home court anyway (just 5-10 straight up). Providence is confident on the road, going 10-6 straight up (11-5 ATS), and they have some momentum going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS down the stretch. USC likes to play at a fast tempo, but haven't been comfortable away from home where they actually give up more points than they score. Providence has no problem going fast, but the match we really like is on the defensive end of the court where Providence has a big on-court advantage. Providence has covered the pointspread in 13 of their last 17 tournament games, and that streak continues on Thursday as the Trojans lose outright! 25* CBB "King's Ransom" Play on Providence.

20* Play on Indiana (-12). Losing early in a conference tournament isn't always a bad thing. Indiana didn't need a strong run in the Big Ten Tournament to gain any momentum - they finished the regular season with the best in-conference record, beating out the likes of Michigan State, Maryland, and Purdue. And leaving the tournament early means the Hoosiers are well rested for this tournament, and despite being placed in a very tough bracket they do have a decent shot of making some noise. We look for Indiana to bounce back from that late Michigan defeat, and win by a blowout margin against an overmatched Tennessee Chattanooga side. While UT Chatt did have a great record, they simply didn't play the kind of competition that prepares a team for a tournament such as this, and especially an opponent of Indiana's caliber. Hoosiers are putting up 83 points per game while making over 50% of their shot attempts - numbers that are fantastic on their own, and even better when put in the context of a traditionally defensive-heavy Big Ten Conference. Chattanooga is simply over their heads in this matchup, and while they might stay close early, we look for Indiana to pull way ahead in the second half and cruise to a blowout win and cover! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Indiana.

20* Play on Michigan (-3.5). Wolverines have to be thrilled with their inclusion to the NCAA Tournament, and while we wouldn't have put them in, we do think Michigan did make a pretty good case for themselves in the Big Ten Tournament. Upsetting a very good Indiana team was likely what pushed them over the edge, and they take a decent amount of momentum into Wednesday night's matchup against Tulsa. Both of these teams have pretty similar statistics in terms of win/loss record and averaging ppg scoring both for and against, but those stats came in two completely different conferences. Michigan plays in the Big Ten which has far better competition, so those pretty equal statistics means Michigan is the better team. Losing by 22 points (as a favorite, no less) vs. Memphis is not the type of game that will have Tulsa brewing with confidence, and while they are just "happy to be here", Michigan clearly has bigger goals than playing in a play-in game. Wolverines prove they are the better team and are properly motivated with a strong showing on Wednesday night, covering this small number with ease! 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Michigan.

20* Play on St. Mary's (-12). We thought St. Mary's got the raw end of the deal when they were left out of the NCAA Tournament. Teams that believed they were good enough but were eventually left out usually play either very well, or very poorly in this NIT setting. Teams can take the mindset of proving the selection committee wrong and stating their case with a long tournament run, or teams can feel sorry for themselves and play disinterested. We believe St. Mary's will be the former, and we also believe the linesmakers think the same way with this big line. In fact, we view this line as a "trap line", begging for action on the underdog. We won't bite, and look for St. Mary's to take control of this game early and cruise to a blowout win and cover. New Mexico State didn't see much in terms of quality competition (only 11 lined games all season), and in their few chances they looked completely overmatched. That includes a 30-point loss at Wichita State, an 18-point loss at New Mexico, and an outright loss (as a nine-point home favorite) vs. Wyoming. St. Mary's is a near-perfect 18-1 straight up here at home winning those games by an average of 19 points per game. No hope for New Mexico State who is woefully unprepared for this type of an opponent, and St. Mary's takes out their aggression from being left out of the NCAA Tournament on an overmatched New Mexico State foe as this one gets ugly in the second half! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on St. Mary's.

20* Play on Wichita State (-3.5). Shockers were held to 32% shooting in their upset loss against Northern Iowa in their conference tournament, but was still able to make it into the NCAA Tournament. We don't believe Wichita State was given a fair shake by the selection committee and shouldn't have to prove their worth in this play-in game. We also don't believe Wichita State's roster feels that way and look for the Shockers to come out and make a statement with a decisive victory on Tuesday night. No faith in Vanderbilt on the road as they are just 5-11 straight up (6-10 ATS) away from home this year, and four of those five road victories came in the role of the favorite (three of those five road wins as favorites of ten or more points). Wichita State is a dominant defensive team and can play both up-tempo as well as at a slow pace. No real on-court matchup advantage for Vanderbilt, who we consider to be an average team in a bad SEC Conference. Shockers take this one easily! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Wichita State.

20* Play on Ohio State (-5). Buckeyes never had a chance of making the NCAA Tournament and didn't have any right to. However, they could do well in this NIT Tournament if they are properly motivated, and we do like them to win big tonight in the opener. This is more of a play "against" Akron, who has been fantastic at home this season with a perfect 15-0 straight up record, but much different on the road where they are just 11-8 straight up. That includes five outright losses as favorites. Buckeyes were not good enough this year to beat the better teams in their conference, but when they played with confidence, they did very well (even upset Kentucky this season). Towards the end of the season, Ohio State seemed to take the court either extremely confident, or not confident whatsoever, depending on who they were playing. No reason for Ohio State to be lacking confidence here against a MAC school when the Buckeyes are 14-5 straight up here at home and don't have to worry about an opponent with any real dominant qualities. Buckeyes shoot better, defend better, and catch Akron in the right location. Buckeyes roll! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Ohio State.

20* Play on Kansas (-4). Back on January 25th, Kansas lost at Iowa State with a big game looming next against Kentucky. The Jayhawks won a hard-fought battle against the Wildcats, and never looked back, as that Kentucky victory propelled a 13-game winning streak, with Kansas going 10-3 at the betting window in the process. In the midst of that winning streak, the Jayhawks were able to avenge a road loss against this West Virginia team in a statement 10-point home victory versus the Mountaineers. We look for a similar result today as these two teams meet up in the Big 12 Championship Game, with Kansas cementing their standing as the team to beat in the NCAA Tournament. West Virginia was able to pull off the home upset thanks to 22 Kansas turnovers combined with 47 free throw attempts. WVU didn't shoot the ball well at all in that upset win, making just a 33% of their shot attempts and going just 3-12 from distance. Kansas cleaned up their ball handling and WVU wasn't getting the calls at the ridiculous rate as their home win when Kansas beat them in the rematch. Can't see WVU going to the line anywhere near 47 times here tonight, and the way Kansas is gaining confidence on a daily basis, this one has a good chance of getting out of hand early. Mountaineers don't have enough offensive firepower to keep up with a Kansas team that has shot 50% or better in eight of their last 12 games overall. 20* CBB "Watch Party" Play on Kansas.

20* Play on Virginia (-3). While Miami FL and Virginia have identical records the Cavaliers have been far more consistent as of late and we really like their chances of beating the Hurricanes by a surprisingly comfortable margin. We faded Miami last night, expecting them to win outright but not come close to covering as big favorites against Virginia Tech. Hokies came through for us in their 88-82 loss, a game Virginia Tech was able to cover despite being on the wrong end of a 57% to 49% shooting discrepancy. And speaks to the two problems of Miami - they never seem to do as well on the scoreboard as they should when looking at their in-game statistics, and they give up a far higher shooting percentage than other teams with similar overall elite straight up records. These two teams split their regular season matchups, with each side winning on their home court. Virginia won by 8 points on their home court, but Miami only won by 3 in their home victory - needing a 10-19 shooting effort from distance to do so. Both teams have similar offensive numbers but Virginia is easily the superior defensive side, allowing less than 60 ppg both overall this season as well as in conference. If anything, Miami has been getting worse defensively down the stretch (a sign of fatigue), and playing without rest will only make things worse on that end of the court. Unless Hurricanes shoot 50% or better from beyond the arc again, Virginia takes this one easily! 20* CBB "3-Game Power Pack" Play on Virginia.