#463 ASA PLAY ON 8* Tennessee Titans + at New Orleans Saints, Sunday at 1 PM ET - If you back road Dogs in a Week 1 game that the O/U is 46 or less, you would be 34-13-3 ATS the last 50 times that situation has presented itself. Those numbers are impressive, but the real key in this game is the fact that Titans are possibly the better team getting points. Tennessee added a playmaking WR in Hopkins, which they sorely missed last season after losing AJ Brown. They have a healthy QB in Ryan Tannehill who is coming off a down season a year ago after throwing for over 3,700 yards in each of his two previous seasons. The offense will once again revolve around RB Derrick Henry who continues to be one of the most productive running backs in the NFL. The Titans defense had major defensive injuries a season ago and still finished 19th in DVOA. They are ferocious up front and will be one of the best defensive lines in the NFL at pressuring opposing QB’s. The Saints have an aging roster and will turn to QB Derek Carr to right the ship in New Orleans. The Saints were 22nd in the league in scoring a year ago at 19.4PPG, 18th in total YPG and 21st in Points Per Play. New Orleans, once dominant rushing attack, averaged just 4.3-Yards Per Rush which was 20th in the league last year. The Titans are 26-12-1 ATS as a dog since 2018 with a negative differential of minus just -1.4PPG. The Saints are 6-8 ATS as a chalk since Drew Brees retired

#459/460 ASA PLAY ON 8* UNDER the total - Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are not expecting a ton of points between these two teams on Sunday. The Colts offense is in trouble! They are starting rookie QB Richardson out of Florida who only started 13 games with the Gators. It would be much easier for Richardson if he had RB Taylor in the backfield to take pressure off the passing game. Taylor led the league in rushing yards in 2021 but demanded a trade before the season and is now on the PUP list and out for four games. Indianapolis averaged just 17PPG last season which ranked 30th in the league. On average, it took them 18.3 yards gained to score 1-point which was also 30th. The Colts lacked explosiveness too with an offense that averaged only 4.8-Yards Per Play which was again 30th. The Colts defense made positive strides toward the end of the season allowing 24 or less points in 5 straight games to end the year. That includes one game against this same Jags team. Indianapolis allowed over 25PPG on the year, but they gave up 32 or more points in four of their first five games. The Jaguars emerged as a Playoff team last season under the direction of new coach Doug Pederson. Jacksonville did rank 8th in scoring a year ago and had a top 10 offense in Yards Per Play and were 12th in Yards Per Point. The Jags made huge strides defensively last season allowing just 21.4PPG compared to 26.9PPG they gave up the season before. Jacksonville allowed 13.1-Yards per Point in 2021 (30th) and improved to 16.4-Yards Per Point allowed in 2022. In the two meetings last season the O/U numbers were 41.5 and 44 so we are clearly getting value here. We look to bet Under on Week #1 games with a Total of 46 or less and the home team is an underdog which has produced a 47-25-2 ATS record dating back 20 years.

ASA top play on 10* under 54 Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs, Thursday 8:20 PM ET - The NFL debuts Thursday night with the Lions taking on the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium. The Lions surprised many fans and teams last year but won’t sneak up on anyone this year. Detroit made a huge jump offensively last season going from 19.1PPG in 2021 to 26.6PPG in 2022 so expect a regression this year against a tougher schedule. Gone from last year's roster are running backs Jamaal Williams (over 1,000-yds rushing) and D’Andre Swift who accounted for 23 combined rushing TD’s. The Lions gave up 25.1PPG but should be improved defensively with added personnel on the D-line and in the defensive backfield. Detroit was much better defensively in the second half of the season allowing just 20.2PPG in their last ten games. Of course, KC is one of the very best offenses in the NFL and has averaged over 29PPG the past two seasons. In their first twelve games last season they scored 27 or less points seven times. Defensively, the Chiefs were 9th in Yards Per Play defense in 2022 at 5.2 per and gave up 22.2PPG (18th). In watching the betting markets on this Total we see a key sharp Book offering a lower number than most of the public shops. That tells us the heavies are on the Under.

ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 51 Points – Philadelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday @ 6:30 ET - Our power ratings have this total set at 49 so, in our opinion, we’re getting a few points of value on the Under. Neither QB is 100% healthy with Mahomes high ankle sprain which should be better but will continue to limit his mobility and Hurts shoulder injury which has really prevented him from being accurate throwing downfield. Both defenses match up very well vs the opposing offenses strengths. The Eagles rank #1 in the NFL in overall pass defense and they had 15 more sacks than any other team in the NFL this season. The pressure will be a problem for Mahomes who won’t have his usual mobility due to his ankle injury. The Philadelphia defense has been stout all season ranking 2nd in total defense while allowing just 20 PPG. On the other side, the Eagles run the ball almost 51% of the time (4th most in the NFL) and KC’s strength on defense is stopping the run. The Chiefs rank 8th in the NFL allowing just 107 YPG rushing and their defense as a whole has improved dramatically over the 2nd half of the season. On October 31st the Chiefs overall defense ranked 26th allowing 370 YPG. They now rank 10th in the NFL giving up just 328 yards per game and have allowed an average of just 304 total yards per game and only 4.8 yards per play since November 1st. Last week they held a potent Cincinnati offense to 309 total yards on 4.8 yards per play. So while Philly’s defense has been a strength all year, KC’s has been one of the best in the NFL the 2nd half of the season. KC has played 19 games this season with just 6 of those topping 51 total points (in regulation). Philadelphia has also played 19 games this season and only 5 of those games have topped 51 total points. Thus, of the 38 combined games these 2 have played, only 11 have topped 51 total points. An interesting underlying situation in this Super Bowl is the officiating. Carl Cheffers team will be officiating this game and they have called more penalties than any other crew in the NFL each of the past 2 seasons. Cheffers has been the head referee for 12 playoff games since 2010 and 11 of those 12 games have stayed Under the Total by an average of 13 PPG. He reffed the Cincinnati vs Buffalo playoff game a few weeks ago which stayed Under the total by 11 points. Historically, there have been 55 Super Bowls and 13 of those have had totals set in the 50’s. 9 of those 13 games have stayed Under the Total. More recently, since 2000, there have been 8 Super Bowls with the total set at 50 points or higher and 7 of those games have stayed Under the Total. The last 4 Super Bowls have stayed Under the total and we’re projecting this one will do the same.

#323 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - This line opened low at KC -2 due to the injury to Mahomes. It has since moved to the Bengals as a favorite and now back to KC -1.5 with the anticipation that Mahomes will play. He will, but we can’t imagine he’ll be even close to 100% based on the history of high ankle sprains and time needed to heal. He needs to be at the top of his game for the Chiefs to have a chance here and with his mobility severely limited they just aren’t the same team. Cincinnati has already beaten the Chiefs 3 times in the last 13 months and that was with Mahomes at 100%. Cincy outgained KC by 130 yards combined in those 3 games and QB Burrow has ripped apart this defense in those games with a 72% completion percentage of almost 1,000 yards and 8 TD’s. In their lone meeting this season, the Bengals defense held Mahomes to 16 completions, his lowest of the season. Last week the Bengals dominated both lines of scrimmage vs a team many thought was the best in the NFL. Cincy rolled up 172 yards rushing while holding Buffalo to 63 yards on the ground. Now they face a KC defense that allowed Jacksonville to rush for a whopping 7.6 YPC last weekend. After their 98 yard TD drive right after Mahomes was injured, the Chiefs only gained 153 total yards from that point on with their QB hobbled. Jacksonville gained 260 yards from that point on but had a few key turnovers including a fumble at the KC 3 yard line. The fact it, once Mahomes was far less than 100%, the Jags outplayed the Chiefs and KC was fortunate to win. This week Kansas City plays a better opponent but will almost assuredly be in the same situation offensively with Mahomes hobbled. Cincy, on the other hand, was firing on all cylinders last week offensively and should be able to do the same this week vs a KC defense that is not as good as the Buffalo defense they shredded for 412 yards last weekend. Cincinnati is the 2nd best spread team in the NFL this year with a 13-4-1 ATS mark. KC is the 2nd worst spread team in the league this year with a 5-12-1 ATS record. With both teams at full strength we felt the Bengals had a solid shot at the upset and now with the situation we have, we feel it will be very difficult for Kansas City to win this game. Cincinnati heads back to the Super Bowl.

#322 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 over San Francisco, Sunday at 3 PM ET - We weren’t overly impressed with San Fran last week in their 19-12 win over Dallas. We felt the Cowboys absolutely outplayed the host Niners for the first 3 quarters before running out of gas late in the game. That wasn’t surprising as Dallas was playing their 4th straight week on the road and the overall numbers for those teams aren’t good, especially late in the game. That game was tied 9-9 entering the 4th quarter and Dallas had outgained San Francisco 219 to 147 when the Niners when on their long (and only) TD drive. The point is, they were at home last week playing an opponent in a very bad situational spot and struggled. That same opponent, the Cowboys, finished 2 games behind Philly in the NFC East. QB Purdy finally came back to earth a bit last week (219 yards pass and 0 TD’s) has he finally faced a defense with a pulse. In 5 of his 7 starts leading up to last weekend vs Dallas, he had faced defenses ranked 18th or lower. His 2 career road starts were both tight wins @ Seattle (won by 8) and @ Las Vegas (won in OT). Now he takes a HUGE step up in competition traveling to the east coast for his first ever playoff start facing the 2nd best defense in the NFL the Eagles who are also 1st in the league vs the pass. Philly, similar to the Dallas defense last week, is great at pressuring the QB with a league high 70 sacks this season, 15 more than anyone else in the NFL. We expect Purdy to struggle. Philly is 15-3 on the season but 2 of those losses came when QB Hurts was out with an injury. Thus, with him in the lineup, the Eagles are 15-1 and they dominated the Giants last week 38-7 outgaining NY by nearly 200 yards. They are also rested and healthy after having a bye the previous week. At home this year the Eagles have a winning margin of +11 PPG and a yardage margin of +105 YPG. They were 7-2 ATS in home games with Hurts as their starting QB. San Francisco was just 4-4 ATS on the road this season and they played only 1 road game this season vs a team that ended the year with a winning record, Seattle, and they barely made the cut with a 9-8 regular season record. We have these teams rated very close overall, however we like the home field edge and QB advantage here with Hurts, an MVP candidate, vs Purdy making his first road playoff start and first road start vs a high level team. Getting Philly under a FG at home is value in our opinion.

#317/318 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 46.5 Points – Dallas vs San Francisco, Sunday at 6:30 PM ET - We were on the Over 45.5 in the Tampa Bay vs Dallas game last week and the game landed on 45 for a very tough loss considering the circumstances. The game should have been much higher scoring with Dallas missing 4 XP’s along with Tampa throwing an interception in the endzone taking points off the board, and Tampa getting down to the Dallas 2 yard line (1st and goal from the 2) in the 2nd half and coming away with 0 points. Needless to say, that game should have gone Over the total. Now we are getting the total at nearly the same number but with a SF offense that has been much better all season when comparing them to the Tampa offense from last week. We like the value on the Over here. Dallas scored only 6 pts in their regular season finale vs Washington but prior to that they had averaged 36 PPG their previous 9 games and scored at least 27 in each of those games. Then last week they scored 31 on a very solid Tampa defense. The Cowboys and their opponents reached at least 48 total points in 7 of those 10 games and as we mentioned really should have been in the 50’s last week. The Dallas defense allowed 15 PPG over their first 7 games of the season and over the final 10 they allowed 24 PPG. They “held” Tampa to 14 points but as we stated the Bucs left a number of opportunities on the field. San Fran should have their way on offense on Sunday. Since Brock Purdy took over at QB back in early December, the Niners have averaged 35 PPG and been held under 30 points only ONCE in those 7 games. They have been held under 6.0 YPP only twice in those 7 games with Purdy under center. SF has gone Over the total in 6 of those 7 games and they’ve reached at least 50 total points in 5 of their last 7 games. The 49er defense has very good overall numbers, but they have allowed at least 20 points in 3 of their last 4 games with Arizona (with Blough & McSorley at QB) being the only team during that stretch that didn’t reach 20. SF has also played the 28th most difficult schedule of opposing offenses and they are now facing a Dallas offense that is playing as well as anyone in the NFL the 2nd half of the season. Both of these teams have the ability to reach the mid to upper 20’s or even push into the 30’s here with the total set in the mid 40’s it’s simply too low.

#302 ASA TOP PLAY ON Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 over Jacksonville Jaguars, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - This is a tough spot for the Jags on the road after 2 must win, come from behind home wins the last 2 weeks. To end the regular season Jacksonville played a “win and in” game for the AFC South crown vs Tennessee and trailed in the 4th quarter before coming back to win 20-16. On top of that, the Jaguars were outgained by nearly 100 yards in that game vs a Tennessee offense with 3rd string QB Josh Dobbs under center. Last week we all watched them get down 27-0 and make a furious 2nd half comeback to beat the Chargers 31-30. What do they have left in the physical and emotional tank after those 2 dramatic wins? This team probably shouldn’t even be here at this point and now they must play a road game versus a KC team who is coming off a bye and is completely comfortable in this situation (playoff pressure) while Jacksonville is not. We do have one data point to look closely at as these teams met here in KC back in mid November. The Chiefs were favored by 10 in that game and won 27-17. It was actually a much more dominant performance by KC in that game. They outgained Jacksonville by +2.6 yards per play with KC averaging a massive 7.8 YPP while holding the Jags to 5.2 YPP. On top of that, the Chiefs were -3 turnovers in that game and still able to win by double digits. We expect the Kansas City offense to have their way in this game as they did in the first meeting averaging nearly 8 yards per play as we discussed. Jacksonville’s defense ranks 24th in total defense and 28th in pass defense and that’s facing the EASIEST schedule of offenses this season. Now they face the #1 offense in the NFL with 2 weeks to prepare and a QB Mahomes that is playing at the top of his game. Since Mahomes took over as the starting QB for KC, he has a record of 7-2 in home playoff games with those 7 wins coming by an average of 13.6 PPG. The Jags defense faced 7 teams this season which ended the year ranked in the top 15 in total offense. In those games Jacksonville allowed an average of 28 PPG. KC head coach Andy Reid has a remarkable 29-6 record in games with an added week of rest advantage (63% cover rate in those games) and in his 19 playoff wins, 15 have come by double digits. We like Kansas City to win this game by at least 10 points.

#151/152 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 45.5 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Bucs, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - These are 2 of the fastest paced teams in the NFL with TB rank 1st in seconds per play and Dallas 4th so we should be plenty of offensive snaps in this game. Dallas scored only 6 pts last week vs Washington but prior to that they had averaged 36 PPG their previous 9 games and scored at least 27 in each of those games. The Cowboys and their opponents reached at least 48 total points in 7 of those 9 games. Both of these defenses were regressing as the season wore on. TB’s defense has allowed at least 24 points in 4 of their last 5 and the only team that didn’t reach 24 was Arizona with 3rd string QB McSorely starting. Besides their season opener vs Dallas, TB faced 3 other top 10 offenses this season and they allowed 34, 35, and 41 points in their other 3 vs top 10. In their first game vs Dallas they held the Boys to 3 points, however Dak was injured in that game and it was the first game of the season back in early September so not much can be taken from that in our opinion. Speaking of regression, the Dallas defense allowed 15 PPG over their first 7 games of the season and over the final 10 they allowed 24 PPG. The Tampa offense was hit or miss at times this season, however they played well down the stretch. In Brady’s last 6 quarters as QB they scored 47 points, 30 vs Carolina and then 17 in first half last week before the sat the starters. Weather will be cool in the 40’s but light winds and no precipitation. The projected final score based on the total is around Dallas 24, Tampa 21 and we think both teams will eclipse those numbers. Over is the play on Monday Night.

#147/148 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Over 48 Points – NY Giants vs Minnesota Vikings, Sunday at 4:40 PM ET - These 2 met a few weeks ago and we were on the Over in that game as well. It cashed with Minnesota winning 27-24 and it took a big 4th quarter to get there. However, watch that game from start to finish, both teams had a number of chances well before that to put points on the board and did not. NY threw 2 interceptions in the endzone in that game and there were 4 punts from right around midfield which usually kill an over but they were still able to top 50 points despite that. Both teams moved the ball well on offense as they combined to average around 6.0 YPP. Minnesota has been an Over machine when playing at home this season. 7 of their 9 home games have gone Over the total. The Vikes average 27 PPG at home this season and that includes their one stinker on offense where they scored 3 points vs Dallas back in November. They put up at least 23 points in every other home game and their average total points scored at home this season was 52.3. The Giants only put up 16 points last week vs Philly (one of the top defenses in the NFL) however they sat pretty much everyone including starting QB Jones. Prior to that they had scored at least 20 points in 6 straight games and they are facing a Minnesota defense ranks 31st in total defense and the Giants averaged 7 YPP in their meeting a few weeks ago. The Giants defense also ranks nearly the bottom of the league at 25th in total defense. We have a feeling both teams will have to keep up offensively here as we don’t see either defense stopping their opponent. Take the Over.

#141/142 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Under 42 Points – Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - These 2 already met twice and both games totaled just 34 points. Seattle scored ONE offensive TD in 2 games vs SF this year – the other TD was a block FG returned for a TD. Seattle averaged just 4.8 YPP in the 2 meetings and had less than 500 yards total in the 2 games combined. SF QB Purdy has been successful but the pressure really ramps up now making his first NFL playoff start. The Niners already run the ball 7th most in the NFL (rushing play %) and will lean on that heavily after rushing for 189 and 170 yards in their 2 meetings vs Seattle. If SF gets a lead as we suspect, the rushing attack will eat clock. The Seattle defense has played better down the stretch holding 3 of last 4 opponents to 21 points or less – KC was only one who topped that with just 24 point. We also think the Seahawks defense has a hidden advantage here as well facing QB Purdy for the 2nd time in a month. They will be the only defense that will have seen Purdy more than once. Lastly the weather in San Francisco doesn’t look great on Saturday with rain and winds of 20+ MPG which will benefit the defenses in this game. These two division rivals know each other very well and that leads to a low scoring game on Saturday.

ASA Top Play on 10* UNDER 49.5 Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers, 8:15 PM ET - It’s been a while since these two division rivals played a meaningful game this late in the season. Basically, both teams need to win to get in. The Lions could potentially be eliminated if Seattle wins earlier in the day, but the Lions have stated this will be an important game for them either way. These two teams are nearly mirror images when it comes to basic offensive and defensive statistics. They both will want to establish the running game as the Lions rank 11th in the league in RYPG at 129.7, the Packers are 13th at 125.6RYPG. Both defenses really struggle to stop the run with the Lions giving up 149YPG (29th worst), while the Packers are not much better at 26th allowing 141YPG. Both defenses allow over 5.0 yards per carry which is significantly more than the league average of 4.5-yards per rush. The Lions have put up some big scores in 3 of their last four games but the Bears, Panthers and Vikings rank 32nd, 22nd and 31st in points allowed per game. Green Bay gives up on average 21.9PPG. The Packers put up 41-points last week against the Vikings but 14-points came via a 100-yards kickoff return and a 75-yards interception. During their 4-game winning streak the Packers have not put up huge offensive numbers averaging 328YPG which is well below league average. Green Bay is the slowest paced team in the NFL as they run 1 play per every 30.12 seconds. Detroit is fast paced but with both teams focused on running the football the possessions will be down for both.

#477 ASA PLAY ON 10* New England Patriots +7.5 over Buffalo Bills, Sunday at 1 PM ET - We are writing this up on Friday and the line is +7 at most places. We would suggest you play this one now as we wouldn’t be surprised if this line dips below a TD on Sunday depending on what happens on Saturday. With the cancellation of the Buffalo – Cincinnati game, if KC wins here they have the #1 seed. In that case, the Bills may actually rest some players to get ready for the playoffs which would send this line down. New England needs to win to make the playoffs. Win and they’re in. Preparation wise, the Patriots have a big advantage here. They’ve been getting ready for this game with one of the best prep coaches of all time, Bill Belichick, while Buffalo’s week has been thrown into chaos after the Damar Hamlin incident on Monday night. The Bills have been doing walk throughs only this week and some of their players stayed in Cincinnati this week to be with Hamlin which is completely understandable. The Bills are already in the playoffs obviously and we can’t imagine what their mind set might be for this game. The road team in this AFC East rivalry has been money with a 20-7-2 ATS record the last 29 meetings. We’re not enamored with the way the Pats are playing right now, but getting a TD in this situation with one of the better defenses in the NFL (allowing 5 YPP – 4th in the NFL) is the way we’ll go.

#466 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 over Kansas City Chiefs, Saturday at 4:30 PM ET - While the Chiefs are winning, they are vastly underperforming when it comes to the point spread. They are 4-11-1 ATS on the season and over their last 9 games KC is 1-7-1 ATS. They are tied with Tampa for the worst ATS record in the NFL this season. If we throw out their week one domination of what we have found out is a bad Arizona team, KC has a PPG margin of just +5.7 over their last 15 games. Over their last 10 games when they were fighting for the AFC West crown and pushing for the #1 seed, they haven’t been all that impressive even vs lower tier teams. During that stretch they won @ Houston in OT, beat Denver by 6 & 3 points, and beat a floundering Tennessee team by 3 in OT. The Raiders are still playing hard and playing fairly well winning 4 of their last 7 games. Their losses during that stretch have come by 1, 3, and 3 points. They’ve only lost 1 game this season by double digits and nearly knocked off KC on the road this season losing 30-29 and outgained the Chiefs by 10 yards. Las Vegas was +7.5 in that game @ KC and now we’re getting a higher number with them at home because KC is in a perceived “must win” spot which we talk about below. Last week QB Stidham played outstanding and the Raiders offense outgained the red hot 49ers while averaging 7.6 YPP on the best defense in the league despite their 3 point loss in OT. Chiefs need to win to keep pushing for the potential #1 seed, however they’ve been in that spot for awhile now and struggled with teams far worse than Las Vegas as we mentioned. The Raiders would like nothing better than to knock off the big boy in the AFC West to end their season. We expect a great effort from LV in what should be a very tight game. Take the points.

#107 ASA PLAY ON 8* Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 over Baltimore Ravens, Sunday at 8:15 PM ET - These 2 met just a few weeks ago and Baltimore escaped with a 16-14 win. The Steelers outgained the Ravens 6.2 YPP to 5.1 YPP but had 3 turnovers (0 for Baltimore) which turned out to be the difference. Two of those turnovers were in Baltimore territory and the other led directly to Raven points. Pittsburgh only has a very slight chance to make the playoffs and it’s been that way for a few weeks now but they continue to play hard and play well. They have won 4 of their last 5 games with their only loss during that stretch coming vs this Baltimore team. Since Baltimore QB Jackson was injured (he won’t play here) the Ravens have struggled to say the least. They’ve won 3 of their 4 games without him, however it’s been rather unimpressive beating a bad Denver team by 1 (Baltimore scored with 28 seconds left to win), beating Pitt by 2 but outplayed as we discussed, lost @ Cleveland by 10, and then beat a bad Atlanta team 17-9 but the Ravens were outgained. Their back up QB Huntley has thrown for only 1 TD during that 4 game stretch with Baltimore averaging only 11.5 PPG over the last 4. We don’t expect their offense to come alive here facing a rejuvenated Steeler defense that has given up 17 points or less in 6 of their last 7 games. This has been a very close divisional battle with 6 of the last 7 meetings being decided by 5 points or less and the dog is 20-6- 3 ATS the last 29 meetings. We like the Steelers on Sunday night.

#122 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Giants -5.5 vs Indianapolis Colts, Sunday at 1 PM ET - Hindsight is 20/20 of course but one team we looked long and hard at playing against last week was the Colts. They have a lame duck head coach in Jeff Saturday, they have a revolving door at quarterback and were so desperate they played Nick Foles last week against the Chargers. Foles was 17/29 for 143 yards and 3 INT’s. There is a very good chance this team has tanked it for the season in an effort to nab a QB early in the draft next season. The Colts have lost 5 straight games and have THE worst road differential in the NFL at minus -10.8PPG. The Giants on the other hand are fighting for their playoff lives and need to win this home game. New York has faced a tough gauntlet of games in recent weeks and steps way down in talent here. The Colts weakness defensively is their rush D which allows 122.2 rushing yards per game which is 20th in the NFL. The Giants average 144.9 rushing yards per game which is 6th best. This Colts offense ranks near the bottom of the league in nearly every key statistical category including total yards per game gained and scoring as they average just 16.5PPG. New York will bounce back here off that disappointing loss to the Vikings in which they outgained the Vikings by +92 yards but ended up losing late. Indianapolis lays down here in an ugly loss.

#116 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Detroit Lions -6 over Chicago Bears, Sunday at 1 PM ET - The Lions are fighting for a playoff spot and we expect them to play well at home on Sunday. They are coming off an embarrassing effort last week getting trounced @ Carolina in their 2nd consecutive road game after winning @ NYJ a week earlier. This Detroit offense has been fantastic at home averaging 32 PPG and should have their way vs a Chicago defense that has allowed an average of 33 PPG over their last 8. The Lions have averaged 3.15 points per possession at home which is the best rate in the NFL. The Bears offense hit their stride from late October to late November but they’ve hit a wall over the last month. They have not topped 20 points in any of their last 4 games and they are averaging just 15 PPG during that stretch. They’re going to have to do a lot better than that here to stay in this game. Chicago has been outscored by 84 points since week 8 which is the worst point differential in the NFL over that time span. Chicago has nothing to play for and they’ve lost 8 straight so it looks like they’ve thrown in the towel. Especially over the last 4 weeks when their offense has gone in the tank. Detroit defense prior to last week’s loss @ Carolina had really started to play well holding 5 straight opponents below their scoring average. We like the Lions to win this one by at least a TD. We don’t think Chicago will be able to keep up.

#101/102 ASA PLAY ON 8* Over 39.5 Points – Dallas Cowboys vs Tennessee Titans, Thursday at 8:15 PM ET - This total opened 43.5 or 44 and has dropped all the way to 39.5 currently (as of Wednesday afternoon). We understand that Tennessee really has nothing to play for with an all or nothing game next week vs Jacksonville for the AFC South title. The Titans have struggled offensively as of late but with the total set this low, we shouldn’t need all that much from them with the way the Dallas offense has been playing. The Cowboys have gone over the total in 5 straight games and have averaged 36 PPG by themselves over their last 9 games. Titan QB Willis received his first extended action in awhile last week vs Houston last week and should be more comfortable with a week under his belt. Tennessee is facing a Dallas defense that has been declining over the last few months allowing at least 20 points in 6 of their last 8 games. That includes allowing 19 points to Indy (28th ranked offense), 23 vs Houston (32nd ranked offense) and 29 vs Chicago (26th ranked offense). Again, we shouldn’t need much here from Tennessee and if they get to those type of numbers, this will go Over easily. The weather looks good on Thursday night in Nashville with temps in the mid 50’s and light winds at kickoff. We like this one to get into at least the 40’s so we’ll grab the Over.

#481 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* LA Chargers -4 over Indianapolis Colts, Monday at 8:15 PM ET - Indianapolis has to be mentally shot coming into this game. After blowing their 33 point lead last week @ Minnesota (Led 33-0 at half and LOST) they are officially out of the playoff race. They also lost RB Taylor for the season in that game and will not now be starting Nick Foles at QB, their 3rd different starter this season. He has not taken a snap in a game this season. Not much to play for here and we wouldn’t expect a high level effort here from a team that has massively underachieved this season. Since beating Las Vegas in interim head coach Jeff Saturday’s debut, the Colts have lost 4 straight getting outgained in each game. Their defense has allowed 117 points in the last 3 games (39 PPG) and the Indy offense had been held under 20 points in 6 of their last 8 games. Even their offensive “breakout” last week vs the worst defense in the NFL (Minnesota) was aided by 2 non offensive TD’s so the offense really only scored 17 points. The Colts have scored a touchdown on 12.7% of their drives, tied with the Broncos for the lowest rate in the league. The Chargers are starting to play well winning 3 of their last 4 games. They are on the verge of clinching a playoff spot and a win here, plus a few other things that need to happen, could take care of that. The last 2 weeks LA has topped Miami & Tennessee outgaining those 2 by a combined 400 yards. The Chargers are getting healthy on both sides of the ball and we have a HUGE edge at QB here with Herbert vs Foles. Lay it.