#965 ASA PLAY ON Texas Rangers -135 over Oakland Athletics, Monday at 9:40 PM ET - The A's just got rocked 12-3 yesterday.  Oakland certainly has shown improvement early this season and has been playing .500 ball on the year but let's not get carried away just yet.  This club still has issues and here they are hosting the World Champions and we see exceptional line value here on the road favorite.  Texas favored in the -135 range as of early Monday morning and this is a strong value.  What the betting markets see is an Oakland team that had been on a win streak prior to Sunday's loss plus they see Andrew Heaney with an 0-4 record and 5.10 ERA on the season.  However, Heaney has a 1.10 WHIP and has allowed only 12 hits in his last 18 innings and 0 walks last 2 starts. Oakland is starting a struggling Alex Wood here as he has a 1.98 WHIP on the season so his 6.32 ERA could easily be even higher.  Wood is allowing about 2 baserunners per inning as you can see with that WHIP and he has not been showing any signs of turning things around in his recent starts!   Rangers are 13-9 in night games this season and Athletics are 7-11 this season under the lights.  Texas has a +24 run differential this season while Oakland has a -23 run differential this season.  Last season Oakland won 50 games and Texas won 90 games in the regular season.  The value is huge here with the road team the way we see it!  Rangers get the call in this one Monday.

#926 ASA PLAY ON St Louis Cardinals -155 over Chicago White Sox, Sunday at 2:15 PM ET - The White Sox are off a RARE win yesterday. How rare? Chicago entered that game 1-14 on the road this season! It was also a horrible 3rd strike called that ended the game with the Cardinals having the bases loaded in the bottom of the 10th. The White Sox are 0-3 this season when they are on the road and coming off a win in their prior game. St Louis will bounce back here after the tough loss in extra frames yesterday. Instead of going with Kyle Gibson here - now being saved for the Mets series coming up -  Matthew Liberatore gets the start for the Cardinals in this one as an opener in what will be a bullpen game. The Cardinals bullpen is solid with a 3.64 ERA on the season and the White Sox are the worst hitting team in the majors with a .209 batting average and .319 slugging percentage and scoring just 2.9 runs per game on the year! The White Sox have a young hurler who previously worked out of the bullpen in his 3 MLB seasons prior to this one. He is a first time starter at the MLB level this season and Garrett Crochet has been charged with 12 earned runs in 7 innings over his last two road starts. We expect more of the same here and the White Sox quickly resume their losing ways and drop to 0-4 on the season in road games when coming off a win in their prior game. Cardinals get the call in this one Sunday.

#918 ASA PLAY ON Houston Astros -110 over Seattle Mariners, Friday at 8:10 PM ET - This is a solid value spot on the Astros,. Houston got off to such a bad start this season that they are flying under the radar now that they are finally starting to turn the corner. The Astros have won 4 of 5 games and scored an average of 8 runs per game in this 5-game stretch yet, with an 11-20 record on the season, Houston is off the radar of most people. Here they host a Mariners team that is in first place in the division but just barely over .500 and, in fact, is just 6-6 on the road this season. Seattle has lost 3 of 8 games and scored an average of 3 runs during this stretch. So it is easy to see who is hotter at the plate right now. The scheduled starting pitchers are George Kirby and Ronel Blanco here. Kirby has solid overall numbers but has not been as strong on the road this season. That was also the case last season so the home / road variance of Kirby is not a fluke. The Astros Blanco has been fantastic this season and, at times, practically unhittable. Opponents are hitting only .144 against Blanco this season and he has a 3-0 record and a 1.65 ERA. We like the hot home team looking to gain some early season ground on the first place team in their division. Houston is use to being one of the best teams and their slow start is leading to big value here. Grab the high value low pick'em price with the home team here! Astros get the call in this one Friday.

#917 ASA PLAY ON Los Angeles Dodgers -145 over Toronto Blue Jays, Saturday at 3:07 PM ET - Two teams trending opposite directions and because Kikuchi has solid numbers on the hill for Toronto, line value is available to take the Dodgers with Glasnow on the mound.  Dodgers on the road so the money line is kept to a moderate level here.  LA has been piling up runs while the Jays are struggling to score.  After yesterday's 12-2 slaughter in favor of Los Angeles, the Blue Jays have lost 4 straight games and 5 of last 6.  In those 5 games they scored an average of 2 runs per game!  One was a 5-inning game yet still we are talking about 10 runs scored in 4 and a 1/2 games if one gets technical about it.  As for the Dodgers, they have won 5 straight games and scored an average of 7.8 runs in those 5 victories.  Huge hitting edge here as Los Angeles has been the better team at the plate all season long already.  Also, LA is 7-3 versus lefty starters this season and Toronto is 10-13 versus righty starters this season.  Kikuchi has been solid this season but Glasnow has been even stronger overall.  Glasnow had one tough start but has been phenomenal overall in the other 4 outings including his last 2 sandwiched around the one rare, tough outing.  Those two starts saw Glasnow allow just 10 hits while striking out 24 in 15 scoreless innings.  The Dodgers are loaded with hitters who have had success against Kikuchi while the Blue Jays only have Guerrero and Springer as the two guys with some success against Glasnow and both those guys have had early season struggles thus far.  Lay it with the road team here!  Dodgers get the call in this one Saturday.  

#965 ASA PLAY ON Detroit Tigers -110 over Tampa Bay Rays, Monday at 6:50 PM ET - On the surface, with two teams having nearly identical records plus two starting pitchers having nearly identical ERA numbers, you might be surprised to see the road team is a slight favorite here.  However, it is certainly no mistake.  The Tigers are 8-3 on the road this season and the Rays are enduring a 4-5 stretch in which 2 of those 4 wins came in extra innings.  Tampa Bay has struggled of late and starting pitcher Zack Littel has given up 14 hits in 10 innings over his last two starts.  His low ERA is a bit deceiving and offers up some value here in backing the road team.  The Tigers starter is scheduled to be Tarik Skubal and he has averaged 6 innings in his 4 starts and has given up only 14 hits in his 23.2 innings this season!  Again, Littel has allowed 14 hits in just his last 10 innings on the mound!  You can see the difference in this match-up with numbers like that.  Also the Tigers have enjoyed road success this season and we look for that to continue here as they just took 2 of 3 at Minnesota and have yet to lose a series on the road this season.  Neither team has hit particularly well this season but the Tigers bullpen ranks #1 in the majors and has a 1.65 ERA compared to the Rays bullpen having a 5.34 ERA ranking 27th in the majors. The bullpen edge is strongly in favor of Detroit here in addition to the starting pitching edge favoring the Tigers as well.  Road team rolls in this one!

(Game ONE of double-header) #954 ASA PLAY ON Chicago Cubs -140 over Miami Marlins, Saturday at 2:20 PM ET - The Marlins, along with White Sox and Rockies, continue to have one of the worst records in the league early this season.  That being said, we look for value spots to fade teams like these and this is another one here.  The Marlins are starting Jesus Luzardo in the early game Saturday at Chicago.  Luzardo has a long-term reputation that commands some respect in the betting markets and in a spot like this that results in a line being lower than it should be.  This line on the Cubs is in a bargain price range in the -140 range as of overnight hours.  Luzardo has struggled so far this season with a 7.65 ERA and he also walked 5 in only 4.2 innings in his only road start.  He has given up 5 homers in his 4 starts and, overall, has been hit much harder than usual.  Chicago is 6-1 at home this season while the Marlins are an ugly 4-16 overall this season even with a home-heavy schedule early this season.  The Cubs have the hitting edge in this match-up as the Marlins continue to struggle to score runs.  Miami's struggles are expected to continue versus Javier Assad.  He has been tough to hit early this season and also is piling up strikeouts.  If you look at the Marlins last 11 losses, a recent one was a high-scoring 9-7 defeat but Miami has scored an average of only 1.9 runs in the other 10 defeats.  This team just can not get it going at the plate early this season.  The Cubs, on the other hand, are hitting .294 at home this season which ranks them #1 in the majors and they are scoring an average of 7.4 runs at Wrigley Field!  Cubs get the call in Game 1 of this double-header Saturday.

#903 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -110 over St Louis Cardinals, Friday at 8:15 PM ET - Brewers are 7-2 on the road this season and the Cardinals are only 3-3 at home.  Milwaukee is hitting .277 this season with a .445 slugging percentage! St Louis is hitting only .226 with a .353 slugging percentage. Brewers are currently without Yelich but, including the game he got hurt and had only one at-bat, Milwaukee has scored an average of 5.5 runs per game without him.  Brewers have other guys who have been swinging hot sticks so far this season.  St Louis, on the other hand, mostly has guys that are struggling at the plate and veteran Matt Carpenter (who could be in line for a solid season being happy to be back in St Louis) has been out with an injury. The pitching match-up here is Peralta versus Gibson.  Milwaukee's Peralta has been fantastic with a 2.55 ERA and has allowed only 10 hits in 18 innings plus has fanned 26!  Veteran starter Kyle Gibson is struggling for the Cardinals early this season.  He has allowed 5 homers in his 3 starts and been charged with 11 runs in 12 innings in his last two starts.  A lot of value with the Brewers here as there has been an overadjustment with Yelich currently out of the lineup.  Take advantage of a low pick'em price with the road team having a big pitching edge and overall hitting edge in this one!  Brewers get the call here Friday.  

#913 ASA PLAY ON Baltimore Orioles -135 over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 7:40 PM ET - The Royals are off to a solid start this season just like the Orioles. However, couple of key differences here.  First off, Baltimore is coming off a big season and plays in a tougher division while KC generally struggles and plays in, arguably, the weakest division in MLB.  Secondly, the key here is who KC has played in their 12-7 start. Kansas City has won 3 series against the Astros and White Sox (twice). However, Chicago and Houston enter tonight's games with a combined 9-29 record.  The Royals are 9-1 in their 10 games against those struggling clubs. However, they have had 3 other series including at Baltimore, and they went a combined 3-6 and lost every single one of those series. The Orioles enter this series having won 4 straight games and those were at home BUT they also have won 3 straight on the road!  Baltimore has scored  6.3 runs per game last 9 games.  The Royals have had one huge game at the plate in their last 6 games but have scored an average of only 1.8 runs in the other 5 games!  Kremer off a tough start but had been solid in his first two while Marsh has struggled in each of his last two starts. Lay it with the road team here!  Orioles get the call in this one Friday.  

#919 ASA PLAY ON New York Yankees -105 over Toronto Blue Jays, Wednesday at 3:07 PM ET - Line value here because the Yankees have lost 3 straight and the Blue Jays have won 4 straight. That is keeping this line in the pick'em range when normally the Yankees would be a big favorite here considering the pitching edge for this one. Marcus Stroman has been pitching well for New York and was victimized by clutch hitting in his most recent start. That led to 4 earned runs on only 4 hits as Stroman was again tough to hit despite the end result. Stroman has held opponents to a .180 batting average in his 3 starts this season and he has struck out 17 in 17 innings. His numbers are in stark contrast to the struggling Kevin Gausman. Note that Gausman is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA this season and he has been hit at a .372 batting average. This is not a fluke as Gausman has not looked right at all. He had a shoulder injury during spring training so he only pitched in one game in spring training and he is rusty early this season. This will be Gausman's 4th outing and he has been rocked in each of the last two so he continues to be in "fade" territory right now. Neither team has hit particularly well this season but the Yankees bullpen has a 2.50 ERA compared to the Blue Jays having a 5.18 ERA so the pitching edge - both starting and bullpen - is strongly in favor of New York here. Road team rolls in this one!

#925 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -140 over Houston Astros, Wednesday at 2:10 PM ET - As we mentioned yesterday, these two teams, in recent years, have annually been two of the top teams in the majors.  But the fact remains that Houston is off to a very rough start this season and not really showing any signs of turning things around yet. That being said, there is a lot of value here with the Braves even at a moderate price on the road as they have a huge starting pitching edge.  Max Fried had an unusually rough pair of the outings but this guy long-term has been great and he bounced back in this last start and forced a lot of ground balls plus got strikeouts and Fried absolutely looks back on track. For JP France, there is nothing of the sort.  France is consistently regressing in each start and now will be making his 4th start of the year.  He has an 8.22 ERA so far.  You can see why we like the Braves at a moderate price on the road even though the Astros have been one of the best teams in baseball in 6 of the last 7 seasons. The covid season was the lone outlier.  As for this season however, Houston is 6-13 and has lost 6 of 8.  Though the 2 wins in this recent 2-6 stretch were solid, the 5 most recent losses were by a combined score of 48 to 16 and we like the Braves to roll here.  Atlanta has won 8 of 11 games and is already 7-3 on the road this season as well.  Braves off the 6-1 win Monday and another 6-2 win here in Houston last night and do it again here.  Lay it!

#975 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -115 / -120 over Houston Astros, Tuesday at 8:10 PM ET - These two teams, in recent years, have annually been two of the top teams in the majors. That said, it makes sense that the Astros are getting some respect on their home field in this match-up. But the fact remains that Houston is off to a very rough start this season and not really showing any signs of turning things around yet. That being said, there is a lot of value here with the Braves at a fair price and with a huge starting pitching edge. Hunter Brown gets the start for the Astros and he is off a horrendous start versus Kansas City. Sometimes a pitcher will have a tough start and it is a "one off" situation. However, Brown has now been rocked in back to back starts plus this is a guy that was 11-13 with a 5.09 ERA last season. Reynaldo Lopez, on the other hand, has been solid in both his starts this season and has allowed just 7 hits in 12 innings! As for Brown, he has allowed 14 earned RUNS (not hits) in less than 8 innings on the mound this season! You can see why we like the Braves at a reasonable price on the road even though the Astros have been one of the best teams in baseball in 6 of the last 7 seasons. The covid season was the lone outlier. As for this season however, Houston is 6-12 this season and has lost 5 of 7. Though the 2 wins in this recent 2-5 stretch were solid, the 4 most recent losses were by a combined score of 42 to 14 and we like the Braves to roll here. Atlanta has won 7 of 10 games and is already 6-3 on the road this season as well. Braves off the 6-1 win here in Houston last night and do it again here. Lay it!

#908 ASA PLAY ON Milwaukee Brewers -115 over San Diego Padres, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - Even with Yelich out for the Brewers right now, they continue to score well.  Milwaukee is coming off a 6-4 loss and the Brewers are 3-0 this season when off a loss.  Milwaukee has scored an average of 9 runs over their past 7 games!  They have been hot this season and there is line value here because Musgrove is on the mound for the Padres.  That is keeping this money line low.  Musgrove has produced a low ERA in recent seasons and that is why he commands respect in the marketplace.  However, he is struggling early this season as he has been charged with 4 or more earned runs in 3 of his 4 starts this year.  Remember that his season was cut short last year when he suffered a shoulder injury.  Musgrove is still trying to get back on track and facing this hot Brewers lineup in Milwaukee is unlikely to help in that regard!  The Brewers are 2nd only to the Braves in terms of slugging percentage this season.  Even over the last 7 days, including time without Yelich, they rank #1 in the majors for slugging percentage over this period.  Joe Ross gets the start for the Brewers here and he struggled with command in his first start but had that sorted out in his 2nd start and he has given up just 7 hits in 10 innings this season and also piled up 10 Ks in this stretch.  We understand the low price here but that means value when considering all factors in this one.  We will get involved with a home team that is playing good ball early this season, is off a loss and has not lost B2B games this season.  Lay it! 

#953 ASA PLAY ON Atlanta Braves -145 over Miami Marlins, Sunday at 1:40 PM ET - The Braves off a 5-1 loss yesterday in this match-up and will bounce back Sunday.  Atlanta is 8-5 on the season but a perfect 4-0 this season when off a loss.  Miami is an ugly 3-12 this season and has not won B2B games a single time yet this year.  The Marlins relievers are 0-4 with a 5.68 ERA on the season and rank as one of the worst bullpens in the majors thus far.  The Braves bullpen is at least in the middle of the pack so far this season.  Also, Miami is hitting just .206 on the season which is dead last in the National League.  The Braves are hitting .299 on the season which is ranked at the very top in the majors.  Jesus Luzardo is a solid pitcher for the Marlins but he is struggling early this season with an 0-2 record and a 7.20 ERA.  He is still getting strikeouts but has been susceptible to the long ball and the Braves are a tough lineup to face.  Charlie Morton struggled in his most recent start but was strong in his only road outing this season.  That was against a light-hitting White Sox team which, like the Marlins, is struggling at the plate this season.  Morton has an 85-42 record since the start of the 2017 season.  He is a long-term winner and so too is this Braves team!  Atlanta bounces back and improves to 5-0 this season when off a loss while leaving the Marlins still in search of their first winning streak of the season.  Braves get it done here on the road and we take advantage of the value price as Luzardo being on the mound is keeping this money line price in a reasonable range for a bet on Atlanta.  Lay it!  

#929 ASA PLAY ON Chicago Cubs -135 over Seattle Mariners, Saturday at 9:40 PM ET - The Mariners have won B2B games but they were previously 4-8 on the season and they are hitting just .207 this season. Seattle (excluding extra innings runs) had scored only 30 runs in 12 games (2.5 per game) in the dozen-game stretch prior to yesterday's 4-2 win over the Cubs. Chicago is off B2B losses but this was on the heels of a 7-2 stretch in which the Cubs averaged 7.3 runs scored per game. They have been the much stronger team at the plate this season compared to the Mariners. Also, Chicago has yet to lose 3 straight games this season and Seattle has yet to win 3 straight games this season. We like the odds here in our favor of a Cubs bounce back as they also have the pitching edge here. The Mariners send Emerson Hancock to the mound and the Cubs have Shota Imanaga on the mound. Hancock has made 5 starts at the MLB level and he has a 7.40 ERA and has allowed 28 hits in 20.2 innings! Imanaga was a huge off-season signing for the Cubs and, as was hoped for by the Chicago faithful, he has been phenomenal so far! Two starts and 12 strikeouts and only 4 hits in 10 innings! Look for him to dominate the struggling Mariners lineup. The road team bounces back here. Cubs get the win this evening

#956 ASA PLAY ON San Diego Padres -130 over St Louis Cardinals, Tuesday at 9:40 PM ET - The Cardinals won yesterday's game 6-2 but had lost 3 of 4 prior to that victory and were outhit 14 to 6 in the only win they did have on the season prior to yesterday. Now St Louis faces a very tough pitcher as Yu Darvish has a 1.04 ERA in his first two starts this season. As for the Cardinals starter, Miles Mikolas has picked up right where he left off last season. Mikolas had a 4.78 ERA and opponents hit .282 against him last season. In his first start this year he got rocked for 5 earned runs in 4 innings. The Cardinals finished last season 20 games under .500 while the Padres have been at least 7 games over .500 in home games each of the last 4 seasons. We feel we are getting some nice line value here with the home team at a short price and with a solid starting pitching edge. Darvish is already showing signs his tougher 2023 was a one-off and he looks strong and healthy early this season. He and the Padres get back on track here at home in the 2nd game of this series. The Cardinals are hitting just .213 with a paltry .299 slugging percentage this season while San Diego is hitting .281 with a solid .471 slugging percentage this season. It is early in the season but those stats show a significant disparity and are noteworthy. The home team bounces back here. Padres get the win this evening

#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -100 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Tuesday at 8:03 PM ET - This game is essentially a bullpen game as Mantiply is just an opener for the Diamondbacks and Heaney has lasted a total of only 6 innings his 4 post-season appearances (2 starts). So if we talk about team facts here, the Rangers have won all 9 of their road post-season games! Based on the way Texas has played away from home in this post-season, they are loaded with confidence and the same can not be said for a Diamondbacks team that so often has struggled to score many runs in these playoffs. We look for that road team trend to reach 10 in a row as the Rangers resume their long-term pattern of consistently crushing the ball away from home. In the ALCS, Texas delivered that huge 9th inning to put the finishing touches on a huge Game 6 win which carried right into a Game 7 dominating win! Those 2 wins to close out the series at Houston have already carried momentum into their first travels in the World Series as well as they jumped out 3-0 in the 3rd inning yesterday and then hung on for the 3-1 win. The Rangers lineup has proven to be a very confident group away from home in this post-season and will likely hit much better today too after a surprisingly quiet effort yesterday. Texas rolls again here with our computer math model showing a strong probability of another road win in this one. Take the Rangers

#945 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -110 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 8:03 PM ET - Look at this line today and tell us nothing is "fishy" here with this one! The fact is one could argue that the Diamondbacks, at least based on stats so far in this post-season for the pitchers involved here, have the much bigger pitching advantage today in this match-up, How is this line almost a pick'em when Brandon Pfaadt has a 2.70 ERA in the post-season and Max Scherzer has a 9.45 ERA in the post-season? Yes...we are saying the same thing here! How is this possible? Well the fact is that Scherzer has more rest entering this start then he did entering his prior start and that will make a difference here! Also, Pfaadt really struggled for much of this season before now enjoying some post-season success. Don't be surprised if he matches up much worse with the Rangers here than he did with the Phillies. Overall, Pfaadt is not a guy with dominating stuff. Also, let's now look at other factors here like the fact that the Rangers have won all 8 of their road post-season games! This is a pivotal Game 3 in this series and yet this line seems funny to us and we look for that road team trend to reach 9 in a row as the Rangers continue to crush the ball away from home. In the ALCS, Texas delivered that huge 9th inning to put the finishing touches on a huge Game 6 win which carried right into a Game 7 dominating win and those 2 wins to close out the series at Houston will carry momentum into their first travels in the World Series as well. The Rangers lineup has proven to be a very confident group away from home in this post-season and Texas rolls again here after the ugly Game 2 loss at home. Take the Rangers

#933 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers +110 over Houston Astros, Monday at 8:03 PM ET - Look at the two lines today and tell us nothing is "fishy" here with this one! The fact is one could argue that the Astros, at least based on stats so far in this post-season for the pitchers involved here, have the bigger pitching advantage today than the Phillies.  In that NLCS match-up, Nola has been great but Kelly is also a solid starter.  That said, how are the Phillies nearly a $2 favorite but this line is almost a pick'em when Javier has a 1.69 ERA in the post-season and Scherzer has an 11.25 ERA in the post-season?  Yes...we are saying the same thing here!  How is this possible?  Well the fact is if you look at the prior match-up between these two starters, Scherzer had trouble with 4 Astros hitters while Javier gave up hits to 3 Rangers hitters.  In other words, the difference was not so great!  That said, look at other factors here like the fact that the road team has incredibly won all 6 games in this series!  In fact, the road team is now 9-0 in the Astros last 9 post-season games!  This is a huge Game 7 and yet this line seems funny to us and we look for that road team trend to reach 10 in a row as Houston is eliminated from the post-season.  Texas delivering that huge 9th inning to put the finishing touches on a huge Game 6 win is absolutely going to carry momentum into Game 7 as well.  Texas believes even more now and they can win this thing!  Take the Rangers

#908 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -110 over Houston Astros, Thursday at 8:03 PM ET - Our money is on the Rangers to bounce back here after losing Game 3 at home yesterday. Texas had won all 7 of their post-season games before that loss. Andrew Heaney expected to start for Texas in this one and he held the Astros to only 3 earned runs on just 9 hits in 15 innings in his first 3 starts against them this season. Then he struggled some in the final start versus Houston so he is out for redemption here and we see him getting that! Heaney had a solid outing, though not long, against the Orioles in the divisional round and we expect another solid effort here.  We also look for Jose Urquidy to struggle here. He missed a lot of this season so Urquidy also missed facing the Rangers but in his last two starts against them, both last season, he allowed 8 earned runs in 11 innings! Urquidy has allowed 5 homers in his last 3 starts against Texas!  The Rangers were 51-31 at home this season prior to yesterday's loss.  Our computer math model shows a high probability the home team gets the win here in Game 4.  Take the Rangers

#965 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers +115 over Houston Astros, Monday at 4:37 PM ET - Many will jump on the Astros here thinking they simply can not fall into an 0-2 hole in this series by losing each of the first two games at home. However, this Rangers team is hungrier and sure looks like the better team in this match-up. Texas really has come a long way and it looks like it finally could be a changing of the guard in the Lone Star state. The Rangers got the 2-0 win yesterday and should dominate much more today! They have a big pitching edge with Nathan Eovaldi over Framber Valdez. Keep in mind, Houston actually had a losing record at home this season! The Astros certainly have not found their home field to be a fortress this year by any stretch of the imagination! As for the Rangers, their confidence has grown game by game as they finished the season strong and carried that momentum right into the post-season. Texas won 8 of their last 12 regular season games including 8 of 11 to wrap up their post-season berth before the regular season finale. Now in the post-season the Rangers have won 6 straight games! In 5 of those 6 victories they have allowed a total of only 4 runs or average of 0.80 runs per game! They are dominating with starters and bullpen! Speaking of that dominance, Eovaldi went 12-5 with a 3.63 ERA in the regular season and is 2-0 with a 1.32 ERA so far in the post-season. The Astros Framber Valdez went just 4-8 at home this season and also enters this start off 3 straight rough outings! His final 2 of the regular season carried right into struggles in a 3rd straight game as his post-season outing was a loss to the Twins in which he allowed 5 earned runs in 4.1 innings! Look for a 4th straight rough outing for Valdez here and the Texas win streak continues and moves to 7 in a row! Take the Rangers

#920 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Los Angeles Dodgers -150/-155 over Arizona Diamondbacks, Monday at 9:07 PM ET - Just like our play on the Astros in their win over the Twins in Game 1 of that series Saturday, laying a little juice can prove well worth it in the post-season when the situation is right. This is another one of those spots the way we see it! And, for comparison's sake, a 4* play on a -110 is roughly the same risk amount as a 3* play on a -150 favorite. No hesitation to lay it here as the Dodgers are set to bounce back after the ugly loss in Game 1 Saturday. LA was hammered 11 to 2 in that game but, as you would expect with a strong team like the Dodgers, they rarely have losses in which they allow 9 or more runs. The last 8 times that happened this season, Los Angeles won the next game all 8 times - a perfect 8-0 mark! We do not see that changing here. Zac Gallen is a solid starting pitcher for the Diamondbacks but his ERA was nearly 2 runs higher on the road compared to at home this past season. Gallen was 12-3 with a 2.47 ERA in Arizona this season but went 5-6 with a 4.42 ERA on the road. Specifically he struggled in his two starts against these Dodgers and we expect more of the same here. Bobby Miller, on the other hand, was solid against the Diamondbacks this season with a 3.00 ERA in his two starts against them. Another thing that impressed us about a rookie like Miller this season is we thought he might fade some late in the season. However, Miller even got stronger come crunch time and he had a 3.36 ERA after the All-Star break compared to a 4.50 ERA prior to it. That is a good sign of what to expect from him here in a home post-season start as well. Also, in the regular season, the Dodgers bullpen ranked among the best in the majors while the Diamondbacks bullpen ERA ranked them in the lower half of the majors. We look for a huge bounce back here from a playoff-tested Dodgers team as they respond off a rare, ugly home loss and make it 9-0 last 9 times when off a loss in which they allowed 9 or more runs! Take the Dodgers at home Monday night.

#906 ASA PLAY ON 8* Houston Astros -135 over Minnesota Twins, Saturday at 4:45 PM ET - Give the Twins credit as they just got past the Blue Jays in the Wild Card round to get here.  However, something was wrong with Toronto as they seem to have internal issues and chemistry issues.  Minnesota is facing a different animal now.  They now face the defending World Champs and a team that has been one of the best for quite a few years now.  The Twins are at a major disadvantage in the experience department as Houston is loaded with players with a ton of post-season experience as you would expect based on all their recent years of success.  Also, the Astros had to hold off Texas and Seattle almost to the very end of the season to be able to capture the AL West Title.  All 3 teams finished with at least 88 wins!  Compare that to the AL Central where the Twins reside.  All teams other than Minnesota finished with a losing record and, in fact, finished a combined 106 games under .500!  Bailey Ober is a strong pitcher for the Twins but this is his post-season debut.  The guy he is facing is Justin Verlander and the grizzled veteran has 34 playoff starts and over 200 post-season innings under his belt!  Though he was 2-0 in 4 starts last post-season and helped the Astros win the World Series, his ERA was higher than usual and he has extra focus as a result of those struggles.  Keep in mind Verlander was starting post-season games in 2006 when Ober was just 11 years old!  The experience edge in Game 1 of an NLDS absolutely carries some weight and the Twins did not play as well on the road as they did at home this season.  Houston went 6-1 in home games in last year's post-season.  The Astros are ready again here to make another run.  Take the Astros at home Saturday afternoon. 

#915 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Boston Red Sox +115/+120 over Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers. The Orioles did it with yesterday's win over these Red Sox. They clinched the AL East and that is their first division title in nearly a decade. We do not expect much from this Baltimore bunch today after such an emotional win yesterday and all the celebrating that followed last night. That said, there is excellent underdog line value with Boston here. The Red Sox send Nick Pivetta to the mound and he has a 3.08 ERA this month with opponents hitting just .208 against him. Pivetta has an edge here in that the Orioles have not seen him yet this season and when he last pitched here in August at Baltimore he struck out 9 in 6 innings. Pivetta has had good success against them each of the last two times he has faced them and the O's bats could be a little sleepy here after last night's celebration. The Orioles send John Means to the mound and he had missed much of this season as well as much of last season. Though he has pitched well in limited action since coming back, Means could be limited tonight as now the Orioles are just in "tune-up mode" for the post-season. They will want to be careful with Means here. Keep in mind he is coming back from Tommy John surgery and this will be just his 5th start since the 2021 season ended and they want him healthy and strong for the playoffs. The value is on the Red Sox in this one and Boston is currently available at a solid underdog price range of +115 to +120.

#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Tampa Bay Rays -125 over Boston Red Sox, Wednesday at 6:10 PM ET - We will go action on the pitchers here. The Red Sox have Brayan Bello listed as a starter and the Rays are expected to start Tyler Glasnow here. The odds that both pitchers get scratched is, of course, very minimal and this is both a play on Glasnow and a play against Bello so we are in good shape either way.  From a team aspect there is a huge edge for Tampa Bay as well.  They are still alive in the race for the AL East division title plus they catch a Red Sox team that is slumping badly to end the season.  Boston is 4-15 last 19 games and fell out of playoff contention as the month of September wore on.  Overall, they have been struggling for 2 months now as, dating to late July, the Red Sox have a 20-34 record!  The Rays are on a 33-18 run since late July!  Glasnow has dominated the Red Sox in both his starts against them this season and that included one at Fenway Park!  Though he has given up more earned runs in recent outings he has still been tough to hit and has continued piling up strikeouts and he will resume his dominance of the Red Sox here!  As for Bello, he has allowed 15 earned runs in 20 innings in his 4 starts against TB in his career.  Bello also enters this outing off B2B losses and got destroyed in his most recent start and has a 7.65 ERA this month.  All factors considered, a lot of value with the road team at a very fair money line price in this one. Look for Tampa Bay to keep rolling as they have one of the best records in the league this season and continue to be consistently strong. Rays get the win this evening in Boston. 

#976 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Seattle Mariners, Sunday at 2:35 PM ET - The Mariners again lost to the Rangers yesterday in the second game of this 3-game set with Texas. More of the same on the way here as the loss dropped the Mariners to just 33-44 in their games against teams with a winning record this season. Texas is 49-31 in home games this season and this is their regular season home finale. Considering that plus the fact they are in a battle with Houston and Seattle for the AL West title, the Rangers realize the importance of taking advantage of home field in this one for the series sweep. We get line value here because Bryan Woo is on the mound for the Mariners in this one and has a respectable ERA. The fact is the rookie does not have the MLB big game experience of Nathan Eovaldi plus Woo is 0-3 with a 10.38 ERA in his 3 day game starts this season. This Texas line up has been very good this season at home where they are ranked #2 in the AL for batting average (.274) and #1 in the AL with a .492 slugging percentage! The Rangers are averaging 6 RPG this season at home. They will send Eovaldi to the mound here as he continues to get back to full strength after missing the last two weeks of July and the month of August. We look for him to continue to bounce back as he has gotten stronger and worked deeper with each start here in the month of September. For the season Eovaldi has an ERA of 3.04 and an 11-4 record. With over a decade of experience including multiple seasons with post-season experience, Eovaldi delivers in a key game here. The Rangers are looking to grab the division title this coming week and we look for Eovaldi to help the cause and, along the way, he adds a W to his sparkling run of 10-2 his last 12 decisions! Texas is 6-1 last 7 at home and Seattle is on an overall 7-12 run and has lost 10 of 16 road games! Take the Rangers

#917 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Rangers -120 over Cleveland Guardians, Friday at 7:10 PM ET - The red hot Rangers have won 6 straight games and have Jonathan Gray on the mound for this one. He is off a rare bad start and we look for him to bounce right back here. Gray has a 3.43 ERA on the road this season and has allowed a batting average of only .220 away from home this season. Lucas Giolito has been trending the opposite direction and getting absolutely crushed in terms of homers allowed. Giolito has given up 3 homers in 3 straight starts! Yes, 9 homers over his last 3 starts. He has allowed multi-homer games in 6 of his last 10 starts! Giolito is now on his 3rd team this season and the 2nd half of this season has been a nightmare for him. Since the All-Star break Giolito is 1-8 with an 8.06 ERA. The Rangers are off a 9-2 win yesterday and have averaged scoring 8 runs per game in their current winning streak of 6 games! The Guardians have been going the other direction with losses in 8 of 11 games! We really like Texas in this spot. Regardless of the pitchers we have the hotter team here but we definitely also do have a starting pitching edge. Gray is highly unlikely to have back to back bad starts while Giolito has consistently been roughed up. Lay it with the road team in this one! Take the Rangers

#918 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Toronto Blue Jays -120 over Texas Rangers, Wednesday at 7:07 PM ET - Texas picked up the win here last night topping the Blue Jays 6-3. That’s 4 straight wins for the Rangers but Toronto, prior to B2B losses to open up this series, had wins in their last 4 home games and we like them to get another one tonight to get right back on track. The offense has been up and down this season for Toronto but they are still a top ten offense in the league and we expect them to have success tonight vs Jordan Montgomery. The Rangers southpaw has been crushed in both his starts this month. Also, Montgomery has a 2-6 record in his road starts this season while the Jays Yusei Kikuchi has been great at home this season. The Blue Jays left-hander is 5-2 at home this season and has held hitters to a .220 batting average in his 13 starts here. In his 10 starts since the All-Star break, Kikuchi has a 2.44 ERA and has held hitters to a .234 batting average. The Jays also have the much better bullpen in this match-up when you consider ERA numbers on the season. Toronto ranks 5th and Texas ranks 26th for bullpen ERA! The Rangers have won 4 straight but this was on the heels of a 4-16 run! Texas had been slumping to say the least and now we get value with the Jays at home and with a big pitching edge in terms of starters and bullpen here. The Jays, prior to losing the first two games of this series, had won 8 of 10 games. Toronto should resume their heater here as they have done a great job of avoiding losing streaks this season. This one should end at 2 for the Blue Jays at home per all of the above. The Rangers entered this series with a losing road record on the season. The Jays play in the tough AL East and have a sub-par divisional record but they entered this series 68-38 against non-divisional foes. We have this money line set higher in favor of the Jays so our value is on Toronto tonight.

#951 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Arizona Diamondbacks -110 over Chicago Cubs, Friday at 2:20 PM ET - The Diamondbacks got the big win yesterday and today should be a repeat of that. Arizona's Zac Gallen is off B2B tougher starts but he is having a great season overall and plus this followed 4 straight starts in which his typical dominance was fully intact. Gallen went 3-0 in those 4 starts and allowed 4 earned runs on 18 hits in 25.1 innings and he struck out 30 batters! The only two times this season that he was off of B2B starts in which he allowed at least 4 earned runs in each outing he bounced back with a stellar outing each time. Gallen has not had 3 straight bad starts this entire season. He is a gamer that will come up big here against the Cubs who start a much more questionable starter in this late-season playoff-chase battle. Jameson Taillon gets the call for Chicago here and he has a 5.51 ERA on the season plus has been a bit shaky over his last 5 starts. In those outings he has allowed 26 runs (20 earned) on 33 hits in 26.1 innings! Taillon is just not on the same level as Gallen as the latter is 26-11 the past two seasons combined with a 3.00 ERA! The Diamondbacks confidence is surging off B2B wins by a combined score of 18 to 7 and they stay hot here in this one! The Cubs had been hot too but if you look at their schedule over the past 3 weeks, they had faced a combination of weak non-playoff teams and a number of slumping teams too. This game is another playoff-level game today and we like Arizona to get the job done again here. Take the Diamondbacks on the road Friday afternoon.

#954 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Chicago Cubs -145 over San Francisco Giants, Wednesday at 2:20 PM ET - We successfully played the over yesterday as we expected the long-struggling bats of the Giants to finally get going with the wind blowing out at Wrigley Field. They did just that but the Cubs outscored them in the high-scoring win that was an easy over for us.  Wednesday the wind will likely be switching to westerly just before or as this game is going on.  Either way, the Cubs are the team much more likely to again win a high-scoring battle if it would turn into one.  Since the All-Star break, Chicago is averaging 6 runs per game and no NL team has scored more runs than them since the break.  As for San Francisco, they are dead last in the majors for runs scored since the break and having averaged a paltry 3.6 runs per game.  The Giants are hitting just .216 since mid-July with a dismal .344 slugging percentage.  The Cubs slugging percentage over the same period is .460 - more than 100 points higher!  In terms of pitching here, though we are going action on pitchers, Alex Wood has a 6.15 ERA in day games with a .327 batting average against! The Cubs Jordan Wicks is a rookie but he has been rock solid in his first two big league starts and he went undefeated in his 20 starts in the minors while earning the win in seven of those outings for a perfect 7-0 record.  The Giants have lost 5 straight games and are on a 9-20 run in the last 29 games.  The Cubs have won 3 straight games and are on a 13-5 run in the last 18 games.  Take the Cubs at home Wednesday afternoon. 

#909 ASA PLAY ON 8* Atlanta Braves -105 over Los Angeles Dodgers, Sunday at 4:10 PM ET - The Braves have won 6 straight games.  We get line value here because they are wrapping up a series with a Dodgers team that, like Atlanta, is one of the best teams in the league.  The key here is that we are getting a Braves team that has won 2/3 of its games this season and is on a major roll right now and we are getting them at a pick'em price in a game in which they also have a huge pitching edge.  Charlie Morton is a 39-year old veteran that is turning it on big-time here late in the season.  Morton held opponents to a .162 batting average last month.  He is 4-0 in his last 4 starts.  Morton also has struck out 29 batters in 19 innings over his last 3 starts.  The fact is, the veteran right-hander is in his comfort zone right now.  The old school "rock and fire" notion that signifies when a pitcher is at the top of his game and Morton has been that way for awhile as he truly is just "feeling it" right now in terms of his repertoire of pitches.  The opposite is true for his counterpart today.  Bobby Miller has had a surprisingly strong season but the rookie is starting to feel the late-season pressure a bit now.  Keep in mind, Miller is a rookie and is at the opposite end of the spectrum when it comes to experience.  He has allowed 4 earned runs in each of his last two starts.  Miller's overall strong season was a bit of a surprise to begin with and perhaps he is wearing down now.  Miller, in 2022, had a 4.25 ERA between AA and AAA ball in the minors.  This season he had a 5.65 ERA in his 4 minor league starts.  So Miller's performance at the MLB level remains a bit of a surprise and his fade is likely to continue here as he faces the best team in the majors.  Atlanta has won 20 of the last 25 games for an 80% run the past 4 weeks!  The Dodgers had been hot too but the Braves have cooled them off.  Many will play the "avoid the sweep" theory here but each match-up truly stands on its own in baseball and there is no "due factor" here.  The fact is this match-up shows big edges for Braves over Dodgers again!  Take the Braves on the road.

#903 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers +110 over Chicago Cubs, Monday at 8:05 PM ET - Action on pitchers. Yes, the Cubs bullpen has been solid this season but the Brewers bullpen is even better and has the 3rd lowest team ERA in the NL for bullpens! The expected starters - though we like this play even if the starters do not go - are Wade Miley and Jameson Taillon. The Brewers are heating up again and are the hottest team in the league right now with 8 straight wins! The Cubs have been playing well too but are off B2B wins here and are actually 1-5 the last 6 times they have entered a game on a winning streak of 2 or more. Chicago has gone 29-36 against teams with a winning record this season and, though solid in divisional games, the Brewers have been even better with a 24-12 record in divisional action. Milwaukee is also 56-37 this season against right-handers. Again, even if there was a starting pitching change we like the road team here. Chicago is expected to start Taillon and he has a 6.08 ERA this month and has allowed a homer in each of his 5 August starts! Look for Milwaukee to make it 9 straight wins as they build on their 8-game winning streak and Miley could certainly play a role in that. The Brewers left-hander has allowed only 8 earned runs in 26 innings over his last 5 starts! The Cubs struggles when entering a game on a winning streak continue here as they face the top team in their division. The value is on the Brewers here ... currently available at an underdog price range of +110.

#961 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NY Yankees -120 over Baltimore Orioles, Friday at 7:05 PM ET - We will go action on pitchers here. The Orioles have Grayson Rodriguez listed as a starter and the Yankees are expected to start Gerrit Cole here. The odds that both pitchers get scratched is, of course, very minimal and this is both a play on Cole and a play against Rodriguez so we are in good shape either way. Cole enters this one having another strong month as batters are hitting just .196 against him in July and he has struck out 31 in 25.2 innings!   Grayson Rodriguez has struggled badly for the Orioles in his home starts this season.  Rodriguez has a 9.11 ERA with a .348 BAA in his 6 starts at home in Baltimore this season.  He could be facing a Yankees lineup rejuvenated by the bat of Aaron Judge who is expected to be activated for this game as he has completed his rehabilitation after injury.  The Yankees have won 4 of 5 games. The Orioles have lost B2B games.  Also, Baltimore has lost 2 of the last 3 home games.  The Yankees are ranked #1 in the majors for bullpen ERA and their pen is also #2 for batting average against.  The Orioles bullpen has a solid ERA but the batting average against numbers for the Baltimore pen ranks them 22nd out of the 30 MLB teams.  The point is that Baltimore has been fortunate with the low bullpen ERA thus far this season. So, all factors considered, a lot of value with the road team at a very fair money line price in this one. Look for New York to build momentum off the 3-1 win over the Mets Wednesday. The Yankees get the win this evening in Baltimore.

#905 ASA PLAY ON 8* Los Angeles Angels -145 over Detroit Tigers (GAME #1 OF DH), Thursday at 1:10 PM ET - The Angels are expected to start Shohei Ohtani in this one.  The Angels, after a 6-1 run L7 games, have come full circle on their plans.  Ohtani is no longer on the trade market and they have added Lucas Giolito from the White Sox.  Los Angeles is going for it in terms of gunning for their first post-season appearance since the 2014 season!  There is a new feel in this clubhouse and also renewed enthusiasm from the recent developments on the trade market - Ohtani staying and Giolito arriving - plus Mike Trout is progressing well and expected back before the end of next month.  Ohtani, possibly distracted by the recent noise, had given up some significant earned runs in recent starts yet still allowed only 18 hits in 16 innings while striking out 21.  The point being that Ohtani was not far away from his typical form and, given all the recent developments, we would not be surprised to see the dominating version of Ohtani in this one.  As for the Tigers, Michael Lorenzen has certainly pitched very well this month but 2 of the 3 starts were against the Royals and the Athletics.  Kansas City and Oakland are the two worst teams in the majors and now Lorenzen faces an Angels team that has been among the hottest in the majors the past week.  On the other end of the spectrum, the Tigers are 9-17 in their last 26 home games.  The fact this game is in Detroit truly does not give the Tigers any large advantage here.  The Angels have averaged scoring 6.4 runs per game last 10 games and the Tigers have just one big game at the plate last 10 games and scored an average of only 3.4 runs in the other 9 games.  The value is on the Angels here ... currently available at a price range of -145 to -150 for GAME 1 of the DH Thursday

#957 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Milwaukee Brewers -115 or -120 over Cincinnati Reds, Friday at 7:10 PM ET -  Action on pitchers.  This is a big game right of the gate in the Central Division as the 2nd half of the season gets underway post-All Star Break.  We like the Brewers here as they have won 6 of last 8 road games and are taking on a divisional foe that has lost 3 of 5 home games and has not been great at home this season.  In fact, the Reds 23-21 record at home is no better than the Brewers road record which is also 23-21.  Each club has played 26 divisional games and Milwaukee is 17-9 in divisional action while Cincinnati is 12-14 in divisional games.  All of the above supports a value play on the Brewers here and that is before even analyzing the expected pitching match-up here which is Corbin Burnes (with a big edge) against Graham Ashcraft.  Note that Burnes is 6-4 with a 3.44 ERA in night games and opponents hitting just .202 against him under the lights.  Ashcraft, on the other hand, is 2-5 with a 7.95 ERA in his home starts this season and opponents hitting .297 against him in his home ballpark.  Though Ashcraft had a good start in his only outing so far in July, let us not forget that he got completely steamrolled with a combined 1-6 record in his 10 starts in May/June and a very ugly ERA of 9.66 over the starts spanning those two most recent months.  Burnes has been great in both starts against the Reds this season while Ashcraft got destroyed in his only start against Milwaukee this season.  The value is on the Brewers here ... currently available at a nearly pick'em price range of -115 to -120.