ASA PLAY ON 10* UNC Greensboro -5 over Wofford, Sunday at 4:00 PM ET

Greensboro or the Spartans carried the nation’s 7th ranked scoring defense into their last game against the Citadel and they lived up to the ranking, holding the nation’s 23rd-ranked scoring offense to 25 points under their season average. UNCG allows just .952 points per possession which is best in the conference and 41st overall in the nation. Wofford on the other hand isn’t nearly as good defensively allowing 1.061 points per possession which is 231st in the nation. Wofford has been up and down in the second half of the season by going just 6-6 SU their last twelve games and are coming off a big revenge win over Mercer yesterday. Greensboro has been the best and most consistent team in the SoCon this year with wins in 14 of their last sixteen games. In those 14 wins, all but one has come by double-digits, so we’re not intimidated by the spread on this game today. Greensboro beat Wofford by 4 early in the season at home then won by 10 at Wofford just a few weeks ago. Take the best team, with the best defense and lay the short number with Greensboro who is 10-4 ATS their last 14 games.

ASA PLAY ON 8* William & Mary +1 over Towson, Sunday at 2:30 PM ET

Two teams headed in opposite directions here.  W&M played well to end the regular season winning 2 of their last 3.  That’s not a huge sample obviously but who they played in those games and how they played against them made us sit up and take notice.  The Tribe beat conference champ College of Charleston to end the season and went to Northeastern, who had a 14-4 record in CAA play which was the same as CofC, and lost by 2.  W&M led their game @ Northeastern late and couldn’t hold on.  Towson closed the CAA season winning just 3 of their final 9 games.  Their 3 wins were all close coming by 2, 2, and 4 points and all were against teams that finished tied for last in the CAA (Delaware (twice) and Drexel).  We also like the double revenge factor here as Towson topped W&M twice, including once in overtime.  Those games were way back in January and we these are 2 different teams right now with W&M getting better, while Towson is not.  W&M is a great shooting team and we are not overstating that fact.  This team ranks 2nd nationally in eFG% with only Villanova ranking higher.  They are also the 2nd best 3 point shooting team in the nation and THE BEST free throw shooting team hitting 81% of their freebies.  They are facing a Towson team that allowed their last 5 opponents to shoot 49% and has a tendency to foul quite a bit.  That’s a bad recipe here for the Tigers and we like William & Mary to get the win in this game.

ASA PLAY ON 8* Illinois State + over Loyola Chicago, Sunday at 2:00 PM ET

We don’t need to get too in depth here as many of the reasons we like ISU are the same reasons we took them yesterday.  When at full strength, this team is good.  They haven’t been a full strength at times this year but have been as of late.  With their top 3 players in the lineup (Yarbrough, Evans, and Fayne) the Rebirds have won 8 of their last 9.  Their only loss during that stretch came at Loyola by 7 points, a game ISU led on the road by 6 with under 10 minutes remaining.  It was Loyola’s final home game as well and ISU hung in until the end.  Speaking of hanging in, the Redbirds did so on both occasions vs the MVC champs losing each by 7.  ISU topped #2 seed Southern Illinois yesterday despite simply not playing very well on offense hitting only 37% of their shots and missing 10 FT’s.  As we said yesterday, we felt ISU when at full strength was the 2nd best team in the conference.  Loyola has proven they are the best but 8 full points better than ISU on a neutral court?  We don’t think so.  The Ramblers struggled a bit with two mid to lower tier MVC teams beating UNI by 4 and Bradley by 8 in their first two games.  Loyola was favored by -6 and -6.5 in those two games and now they are laying 8 against the what we feel is the 2nd best team in the conference.  Too many here as Illinois State will again give Loyola all they can handle.

ASA 9* PLAY ON: Boston Celtics +8.5 over Houston Rockets, 8:35PM ET - The Rockets are obviously playing outstanding basketball and it's forced the oddsmakers to inflate this number higher than it should be. Boston was wearing down prior to the All-Star break but the rest afforded them the opportunity to work out some kinks in their offense and get some rest. Since the break the Celtics have won 4 straight and are off a game in which they put up 134 points. Boston has been a dog of 6 or more points just three times this season and they covered all three. Houston is 2-games over .500 as a 6 or more point chalk this season. Yes, Houston has one of the best home differentials in the NBA at +9PPG but Boston has one of the best road differentials of +3.4PPG. The Celtics can throw Marcus Smart on James Harden and at least make things difficult for him. We like the dog and points.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois State +1.5 over Southern Illinois, Saturday at 6:00 PM ET

Illinois State is an under rated team coming into this tourney.  The Redbirds were one of the favorites to win the MVC coming into the year but injuries and suspensions hurt them at times this season and they finished in 3rd place with a 10-8 league mark.  In our opinion, when ISU is healthy, which they are now, they are better than any team in the MVC not named Loyola.  They have won 7 of their last 10 games, however that is even a bit deceiving as 2 of their losses during that stretch ISU played without at least one of their 3 best players (Yarbrough, Evans, and Fayne).  With them in the line up they have won 7 of their last 8 with their only loss coming by 7 at MVC champ Loyola, a game the Redbirds led by 6 with under 10:00 minutes remaining in the game.  Yesterday the beat Indiana State 77-70 and that was with Yarbrough, possible the top player in the entire conference, sitting out 14 of 20 minutes in the first half due to foul trouble and he still scored 24 points.  Southern Illinois finished 2nd in the league but we feel they are a bit overvalued coming in.  Over their last 3 games they were destroyed by 19 at home vs Loyola, lost by 30 @ Evansville, and then beat Missouri State by 4 yesterday.  That was a Missouri State team that had the wheels fall off the 2nd half of the season losing 10 of their final 13 games.  The Bears were not a good team coming into this tourney and still gave SIU all they could handle.  These teams split this year with SIU winning at home by 4 points and ISU winning at home by 8 (without Evans in the line up).  ISU covered both and they have dominated the money in this series with a 20-6 ATS mark the last 26 meetings.  With this line set near a pick-em, we’ll take the team we feel is better and that is definitely Illinois State.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Illinois State -1 over Indiana State, Friday at 9:30 PM ET

ISU was one of the favorites to win the MVC when the season began but injuries and suspensions have this team coming into the conference tournament as the #3 seed.  The Redbirds are now as healthy as they have been all season and were down the stretch when the won 6 of their last 9 games.  In their season finale ISU took conference champ Loyola to the wire on the road blowing a 6 point second half lead in the 68-61 loss.  It was the closest that anyone in the MVC had played Loyola on the road this season.  We think ISU is under rated coming into this game.  Indiana State was headed in the opposite direction heading into this weekend’s tourney losing 7 of their final 10 games.  Four of those games were at home which is very concerning for the Sycamores.  Offense and shooting were the problems as Indiana State shot just 37% over their final 5 games and did not top 1.00 point per possession in their last 3 games.  These two teams rely more heavily on the 3 point shot than any other teams in the Missouri Valley.  Both shoot it at a fairly even rate with Illinois State hitting 34% and Indiana State 35%.  The difference is defensively where the Redbirds are #1 in the conference at defending the 3 while the Sycamores rank 9th in that category.  We feel Illinois State is absolutely the better team now that they are at full strength and we think they are good enough to win this tourney. 

ASA PLAY ON 10* Oklahoma -10 over Iowa State, Friday at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN2

This is simply a huge home finale for the Sooners.  A team that was once a cinch to make the Big Dance now probably has to play well tonight and possibly even in the Big 12 tourney.  A starter and one of OU’s key performers, Christian James, summed this game up yesterday.  "Words can't describe the passion that will be shown tomorrow," James said. "There's nothing else to be said... Lay it all on the line."  Good think for Oklahoma they are at home.  This team has been dreadful on the road but at home they are 12-2 on the season shooting over 50% from the field and averaging 93 PPG.  That should continue tonight as they face a tired ISU team whose defense has allowed at least 80 points in 5 of their last 6 games.  The Cyclones look like a team that is out of gas to us.  They’ve had injuries down the stretch including 2 starters Babb & Young who are out for the season.  This team, that was already thin, is being held together by scotch tape.  What tells us they are in trouble is they were very solid at home beating some very good teams this year in upset fashion.  However down the stretch they’ve lost 7 of their last 8 games and now that can’t even win at home losing 3 in a row, including a 9 point loss to Oklahoma State on Tuesday.  Now on the road just a few days later (where they are 0-9 on the season) and already locked into last place in the Big 12, we see this game as having blowout potential.  This line may seem a bit high but remember just a few weeks ago OU was favored by 6 @ Iowa State (Sooners lost 88-80) so this line actually isn’t crazy high.  We see ISU coming in and simply wanting to get through this game and put their emphasis on the Big 12 tourney next week.  OU, on the other hand, will put everything they have into this one.  Oklahoma rolls.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Rhode Island +2.5 over Davidson, Friday at 8:00 PM ET - On CBS Sports Network

URI had their most embarrassing performance of the season on Tuesday night.  The best team in the A10, who already had the #1 seed clinched heading into Tuesday’s  Senior night, was blasted at home by St Joes 78-48 as 13.5 point favorite.  After the game Ram’s head coach Danny Hurley didn’t mince words.  “Disappointed in this group of guys going out that way in their last home game,” Hurley said.  “Brutal night.  We’ve got to respond quickly.”  You can bet the best team by a long shot in this conference (full 2 game lead even with the loss) will come to play on Friday night.  Now add in the fact they are an underdog and you know this team will have a chip on their shoulder.  They are catching Davidson in a great spot here.  That’s because the Wildcats played in a huge game on Tuesday night battling St Bonnies on the road for 2nd place.  The game went to triple OT (Davidson lost 117-113) , didn’t end until almost 1:00 AM ET, and 3 of Davidson’s starters played 50+ minutes in the game.  The Wildcat’s are already a thin team (321st nationally in bench minutes) that basically plays a 7 man rotation.  Now they must turn around after that extra physical & emotional road battle and play a deep team who’s seniors (5 senior starters) will be out for blood.  URI (23-5 overall & 15-2 in the A10) is a physical team who is #1 in the league in defensive efficiency and #1 in the Atlantic 10 in turnovers forced which is a bad match up for a tired team playing their 3rd game in 6 days.  Davidson shot 49% from the field in their first meeting and still lost by 13.  URI bounce back with a big performance and gets a road win.

ASA PLAY ON 10* Nebraska +4.5 over Michigan, Friday at 2:30 PM ET

The Huskers should absolutely be the fresher team here as they did not play yesterday while the Wolverines were pushed to OT by Iowa.  Michigan relies more heavily on the 3 pointer than any other team in the Big Ten with 38% of their points coming from deep (most in the conference).  Thus when they don’t shoot it well from deep they can be in a bit of trouble.  That happened on Thursday when they hit only 3 of 19 from beyond the arc and were almost taken down by an Iowa team that was just 4-14 in league play.  The problem for Michigan in this one is they now face the best team in the Big Ten at defending the arc.  Nebraska allows just 29% from deep (#1 in the Big Ten) and they also rank 2nd in the conference in defensive efficiency.  It’s a bad match up for Michigan.  In their lone meeting this year the Huskers held the Wolverine shooters to just 4 of 18 from 3 point land and cruised to an easy 20 point win.  Nebraska is also playing for their NCAA lives.  They are a true bubble team and need to win this game and probably one more to have any chance to make the Big Dance.  They are red hot coming into this tournament winning 8 of their last 9 games and we like them to keep this close throughout.  And if it is close as we expect, Michigan’s 65% FT shooting (334th nationally) will come into play.  Nebraska wins this one.