ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -11.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The well rested Celtics are going to make a statement in Game 1 as they catch a depleted Cavaliers team coming off a very tough 7-game series with Orlando. Boston was 2-1 against the Cavs in the regular season with the home team winning all three games. The C’s two wins at home were by 11 and 7-points. Boston is dominating at home with a 39-5 SU record and an average +/- of plus 15.2PPG. Cleveland on the other hand was an ‘average’ road team at 22-22 SU with a negative differential of minus -0.7PPG. When playing with rest advantage the Celtics are 25-3 SU, 15-12-1 ATS but they’ve won those games by an average of +14.4PPG. With a rest disadvantage the Cavs are 10-13-1 ATS, 13-11 SU this season. Boston was arguably the best team in the NBA the entire season ranking 1st in offensive efficiency and 3rd defensively. The Cavs were great defensively all season long ranking 6th in DEFF, but offensively they averaged 1.152PPP which ranked 18th. Those numbers are very similar to each team’s playoff statistics as the Celtics have the 4th best offensive net rating and the 3rd defensive net rating. Cleveland is 4th in defensive net rating, but 15th (out of 16) in ONR. Cleveland expended a ton of energy in that first round series and won’t have enough in the tank to keep this Game 1 close. Bet Boston minus the double-digits.

#224210 ASA PLAY ON Paris Saint-Germain -1 -135 over Borussia Dortmund, Tuesday at 3 ET - This one in Champions League action. This is the 2nd Leg of this semifinals match-up. We like the value of the goal line here. PSG is a big favorite on the money line but by laying the 1 goal on the goal line here, we can get involved at a reasonable price. Paris Saint-Germain lost the first meeting 1-0 but had plenty of chances. They will cash in more of those at home! We feel certain of even more opportunities now that they are at home for this game. More opportunities and better finishes for the home club. They will also not want to risk this one being decided after regulation. So already trailing 1-0, they not only push for the 1 goal win but also a win by at least a 2-goal margin. Having the goal line at a reasonable price with PSG on their home field is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Take Paris Saint-Germain on Tuesday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -5.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 10 PM ET - This series is essentially over if the Nuggets don’t win Game 2 at home. The T’Wolves shot 48.5% on the season but they had an exceptionally great night from the field at 52% overall and 41% from Deep. I expect a regression in Game 2. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-9 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-17 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-36 SU +7.4PPG. The Nuggets were 13-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss but they did have an average winning margin of +6.0PPG. Denver lost 8 home games this season and in their next home game following a home loss they were 7-1 SU and won those games by an average of 16PPG. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota did some things well in the opener and were able to run three different Bigs at the Joker and he still scored 32-points, grabbed 8 rebounds and dished out 9 assists. Denver head coach Malone will make adjustments and Jamal Murray will step up as he so often does in big moments.

ASA top play on NY Knicks -5.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 7:30 PM ET - The Pacers pretty much punched a soft Milwaukee team in the mouth and the timid Bucks didn’t respond. That same approach isn’t going to work against the toughest team in the league, the NY Knicks. The home crowd will be a big advantage in this series opener and the Pacers are in for an eye-opener in the Garden. Much like Game 1 of the first series when the young Pacers were blown out by Milwaukee 94-109. Indiana is below average on the road this season with a 22-23 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -1.4PPG. The Knicks were 29-15 SU at home this season with an average Margin of Victory of +5.6PPG. As a home chalk the Knicks were 18-15 ATS with an average +/- of +9.0PPG. Indiana had the better offensive efficiency rating this season ranking 2nd in the NBA, but the Knicks weren’t far behind ranking 7th. Defensively it’s not close though as NY is 9th in DEFF, the Pacers are 24th. Indiana is at their best when they dictate pace, but that won’t happen against this New York team that is the slowest paced team in the NBA at 95.2 possessions per game during the regular season.

#200122 ASA PLAY ON Crystal Palace PK -135 over Manchester United, Monday at 3 ET - This one in English Premier League action. We like the value of the goal line here. Crystal Palace, for a price, is available at a pick'em on the goal line which turns a draw into a push. We are happy to challenge Manchester United to beat CP in this one. Ever since Palace made the managerial change from Roy Hodgson they have played better. Crystal Palace won the most recent meeting with Manchester United plus they earned a draw when they most recently hosted Manchester United. Crystal Palace has only 3 losses in last 11 games overall! Manchester United has just 1 win in last 7 games. Having the goal line at a pick'em with Palace on their home pitch is a solid value here. We'll gladly take it! Take Crystal Palace on Monday afternoon.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -4.5 vs Minnesota Timberwolves, 7 PM ET - This could be the best series of the entire playoffs, but we have to back the home team here and expect the Nuggets to serve notice in Game 1. During the regular season and as recently as April 10th the Nuggets were much larger favorites at home of -7.5-points and are now laying a shorter number here. Denver had the 3rd best average scoring differential at home this season of +9.5PPG and are 36-8 SU on their home floor. Going back to the beginning of last season the Nuggets are 80-16 SU at home with an average +/- of +9.6PPG. If we go back to the start of the 2021 season, Denver is 104-35 SU +7.4PPG. Where we are going with this is that Denver is dominating as a host and even though the Wolves looked great in their opening series, this is a whole different level in the Mile High City. Denver has the 7th best defensive efficiency rating at home and the 3rd best DEFF. Minnesota’s opening round series sweep over the Suns isn’t as impressive as you might think as the Suns aren’t that good to begin with. The Wolves were 28-15 SU away this season with an average +/- of +5.0PPG. The Nuggets can match the T’Wolves size (Jokic + Gordon) and have a great perimeter defender in Caldwell Pope who can make Anthony Edwards work for his points. With the home crowd support we like Denver to win game 1 and cover in the process.

ASA top play on Orlando Magic -3.5 vs Cleveland Cavaliers, 7 PM ET - The home team is 5-0 SU in this series and all but one of those home wins have come by 10 or more points. We were on the Cavs last game and unbeknownst to us the Cavs Jarrett Allen was ruled out shortly before tipoff. Cleveland managed to win but it was by 1-point. We talked about how ‘average’ the Magic are on the road, but at home they are fantastic. They are 31-12 SU at home on the season with an average +/- of plus +8.9PPG which is the 4th best average in the NBA. Cleveland is only 1-game over .500 on the road this season with a negative point differential of minus -0.4PPG. The young Magic feed off their home crowd which has helped them beat this Cavaliers team in 3 of four meetings this season, with wins of 10, 38 and 23. Orlando is better in terms of offensive efficiency in this series and they have the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating in the playoffs allowing just .973-points per possession. We like the Magic to force a game 7 with a solid home win Friday night.

ASA play on NY Knicks +3.5 at Philadelphia 76ers, 9 PM ET - We will grab the dog here in New York who has been the better overall team in this series. One constant we know in backing New York is this, and everyone watching this series can attest to it, the Knicks play harder than Philly. They are undersized yet own the 4th best rebound percentage of all the teams in the playoffs while the 76ers rank 13th. The Sixers got a herculean effort out of Maxey in Game 5 when he scored 46 points and back-packed the team late with a 4-point play and a looonngg 3-pointer which sent the game to OT. Joel Embiid looks to be favoring that bad knee and his stamina just isn’t there. New York had the 2nd best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss at 21-11-1 ATS with a winning margin of +5.1PPG. This is going to be another barn-burner and will be decided by a bucket or less either way so grab the dog and the points.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks -2.5 vs LA Clippers, 10 PM ET - This line smells! It’s fishy to begin with, then Dallas gets hammered with $ and it moves from -1 to the current number of -3. If it’s too good to be true, then it isn’t! Back the Mavericks here off that disappointing Game 4 loss at home as they are 20-13 ATS this season when coming off a loss with a positive plus/minus. As an away favorite the Mavs have been outstanding this season at 19-5 ATS with an average Margin of Victory of +7.4PPG. The LA Clippers have been home underdogs just 6 times this season and are 2-4 ATS in those games with an average differential of minus -9.5PPG. Kyrie was amazing last game and carried the load as Luka had an off night. If both players are on their game tonight the Clippers will be in trouble in this critical Game 5. Bet contrarian here and take Dallas minus the points.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -4.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - This series is tied 2-2 with the home team winning each game by double-digits and we are betting that trend continues here. The Cavaliers won the first two games of the series at home by 14 and 10-points. Then the series shifted to Orlando where the Magic won by 38 and 23-points. Those two embarrassing defeats will have the Cavs in the proper frame of mind to get a home win here. The Magic had a fantastic regular season record at 47-35 SU, but the majority of those wins came at home where they were 29-12. On the road in the regular season, they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big-time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. Cleveland was very good off a loss this season with a 22-12 SU record and an average +/- of +2.5PPG. Orlando was 15-15 ATS as an away Dog this season with a net differential per game of minus -6.7PPG. Cleveland was one game below .500 as a home favorite ATS but they did win those games by an average of +6.4PPG.

#913 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Minnesota Twins -1.5 on the Run Line (+110) over Chicago White Sox, Monday at 7:40 PM ET - We had our eyes on this one for a few days and everything has come together nicely for a big play.  The White Sox have suddenly won 3 straight but faced a struggling Rays team that has now lost 6 of 7 and has not been playing good baseball.  Now this 6-22 Chicago team faces a red hot Minnesota club that just swept them in a 4-games series and followed it up by sweeping the Angels in a 3-game series!  Our concern with the Twins early this season was their bats but they are absolutely getting it going now and are loaded with confidence at the plate.  Also, they have scored at least 5 runs in all 7 victories in their 7 game winning streak and they just pounded the Angels by a combined 27-10 in the last two games of that 3-game sweep!  The Twins bats have come alive big-time!  Also, they hold a big pitching edge here.  Yes, Garrett Crochet has some impressive strikeout numbers this season but he has struggled with allowing too many hits, including big hits, in his last 3 starts.  It has been like Jekyll and Hyde when you look at Crochet's first 3 starts compared to his next 3 starts this season.  He also just faced the Twins and struggled as part of a stretch in which the young hurler has allowed at least 5 earned runs in all 3 starts even though he has not gotten past the 5th inning in any of the outings!  He will be no match for Joe Ryan here.  Like Crochet, Ryan is piling up strikeouts too.  However, unlike Crochet, Ryan is a veteran pitcher and he has been in consistently strong form all season long.  He recently pitched very well against the White Sox and he also has been in top form in his two road starts this season with just 1 earned run allowed in each.  11 of the Twins 14 wins this season have been by 2 or more runs.  16 of the last 19 losses that Chicago has suffered have been of the multi-run variety.  We are going to take advantage of the value on the run line here in a game our computer math model shows strong odds of turning into a road rout.  Lay the 1.5 with Minnesota

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -9.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 7 PM ET - The Bucks are in a very tough situation here without Giannis and now Dame Lillard who are their two leading scorers. Khris Middleton put this team on his back in Game 3, scored 42 and it still wasn’t enough as Milwaukee lost in OT. You could see Middleton was exhausted in that game and now he’ll be the focal point of the Pacers defense so we’re not sure where the Bucks scoring will come from. Indiana had 6 players score in double digits and also got 6-points from Sheppard and 7 from McConnell off the bench. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 14-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 6-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. Lay it here with the Pacers.

ASA top play on LA Clippers +6 at Dallas Mavericks, 3:30 PM ET - We are backing the Clippers today and will grab the generous points against the Mavericks. I’ll be honest I prefer this bet if Kawhi Leonard does NOT play for the Clippers as he’s clearly not himself at this point in time. Without Leonard in Game 1 the Clippers offense and defense was much better than it’s been with him on the floor. Specifically, on offense where the ball was moving much better and didn’t stop with him in isolation sets. Either way, we expect a very tight Game 4 in Dallas. The Mavs are 26-16 SU at home but have an ‘average’ point differential of +3.8PPG which is 14th in the NBA. The Clippers have an identical road record of 26-16 SU with the 5th best average Margin of Victory at +3.2PPG. The Clippers were 19-13 SU this season when coming off a loss with a +2.3PPG point differential. These two teams have slowed down dramatically in terms of field goal attempts and pace of play which makes the points and this dog that much more attractive.

ASA top play on Boston Celtics -9 vs Miami Heat, 6 PM ET - We are obviously laying a premium price here with the Celtics, but our numbers suggest a double digit win by the visitor. Miami won Game 2, but it took a historically great 3-point shooting night to notch that W. The Heat set franchise playoff records with the number of 3’s made (23) and 3PT% at 53%. We are expecting a sharp regression in Game 3 as the Celtics have the 4th best 3PT% defense in the NBA allowing just 35.4%. Miami is 12th in the league in 3PT% at 37.2%. Boston also had two starters play one of their worst statistical games of the season with Jrue Holiday and Porzingis struggling. The Celtics are 14-4 SU coming off a loss this season, which doesn’t translate when they are favored by 9.5 points, but their average MOV in those games was +12.3PPG, which does. Miami was slightly better than average at home this season with a 23-19 SU record, but they had a low +/- of +2.4PPG. Boston was the best road team in the NBA this season at 27-14 SU with a +7.5PPG average point differential. The Celtics won on this court twice this season already and one of those wins came by 33-points. Lay it with a motivated Celtics team.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -5.5 vs Milwaukee Bucks, 5:30 PM ET - If we examine the big picture for the Bucks, it’s not as rosy as one might think. They are already paying two previous coaches a ton of money and are now stuck with Doc Rivers who is vastly overrated. The roster when healthy is a good one, but without Giannis (30PPG, 11.5RPG, 6.5APG, 1.1BPG) they have too many deficiencies on both ends of the court. There is a good chance Khris Middleton doesn’t play tonight, or if he does, he will not be close to 100%. The young Pacers were clearly nervous for Game 1 as it was a first-time playoff experience for many on the roster and it showed in a 109-94 loss. Then in Game 2 they settled in and dominated the Bucks in the second half for a 125-108 victory. Back at home we expect the home crowd to be electric and the young Pacers will feed off that energy. Indiana was 26-15 SU at home this season with the 6th best home court differential of +6.8PPG. They closed out the regular season with 5 straight home wins, 4 of which were against other Playoff teams. Milwaukee was a below average road team this season with a 18-22 SU record and a negative average Margin of Victory of minus -1.1PPG. When coming off a loss the Bucks are 13-19-1 ATS this season which is the second worst spread record in the league in that situation. Indiana is 5-2 SU versus the Bucks this season and 4 of those wins have come by 9+ points. The Bucks have no answer for Siakam who torched Milwaukee for 36 and 37 points in the first two games. Easy call here with Indiana in a double-digit win.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans looked good in the opener of this series and the Thunder looked like a young team lacking playoff experience. New Orleans covered rather easily and could have stolen Game 1 had they hit a few open 3’s they missed late in the game. The Pelicans attempted 96 field goals in the game and dominated the glass with 52 rebounds versus 44 for OKC. The Thunder shot 44% overall and 31% from deep but had two quarters with 20 or less points. I originally liked the Thunder in Game 1 with the Pelicans coming off two huge emotional games then having to travel. But the Pelicans proved their 28-15 SU road record this season isn’t a fluke and with the G1 cover they are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as a road underdog. New Orleans also has a strong history when coming off a loss at 21-12-1 ATS with an average +/- in those games of +6.3PPG. OKC clearly has some strong home court statistical support but given the fact that the Pelicans shot poorly in the opener and still nearly won outright has us on New Orleans here. Four of the last five in this series have been decided by 7 points or less. Grab the digits.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers +1.5 at Milwaukee Bucks, 8:30 PM ET - The Pacers looked like a bunch of young kids that never had a taste of playoff basketball in the first half against the Bucks. Milwaukee was up 69-42 at halftime with Dame Lillard going off for 35-points. Indiana played much better in the second half, outscoring the Bucks 52-40 while holding Lillard scoreless in the second half. Now that the Pacers have the jitters out of the way we expect them to win Game 2 in Milwaukee who will again be without Giannis. Indiana has won 4 of the last six meetings with Milwaukee and they own the best spread record in the NBA this season when coming off a loss with a 23-11-1 ATS record and an average +/- in those games of +4.8PPG. The Bucks have a losing spread record when coming off a win of 23-26 ATS with a plus/minus of +2.7PPG. Milwaukee is not a good defensive team so don’t expect them to hold the Pacers to 40% shooting again or 21% from Deep. Take Indiana in Game 2.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns +3.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:30 PM ET - The T’Wolves were disrespected in Game 1 with an opening line of -1.5 and were coming off a loss to the Suns so they clearly got up for the opener in a resounding 120-95 win. We like the Suns to rebound from that G1 loss and even this series at one win apiece. Phoenix had won 3 straight against the Wolves in the regular season with all of those wins coming by 7+ points. In the regular season finale on this court the Suns won by 19-points. In Game 1 the Wolves got a monster effort from Anthony Edwards who poured in 33 points on 14 of 24 shooting. ANT is obviously capable of those types of performances, but we like the Suns to make adjustments in Game 2 and force him to give up the ball early in the offensive set. Phoenix got a big game from KD who scored 31 and grabbed 7 boards but Booker was relatively quiet with 18-points. Bradley Beal scored just 15 after scoring 36 vs. the Wolves in the last regular season game. The Suns closed out the regular season with 4 straight road wins against Playoff teams and this veteran group will not be intimidated by the moment. The Suns 9-1 ATS streak in this series continues here.

ASA top play on 10* Denver Nuggets -7 vs. LA Lakers, 8:30 PM ET - The Nuggets had a long layoff going into Game 1 and it showed as they got off to a slow start and trailed early by as many as 12 points. Denver pulled together and dominated the last 3 quarters of the game. That makes it 9 straight wins for the Nuggets over the Lakers and there is not reason not to expect that trend to continue here. The Lakers are bad defensively, ranking 17th in defensive efficiency as they allow 1.154-points per possession. Since the All-Star break the Lakers rank 23rd in defensive Net rating and have allowed the 3rd most points per game in that time frame at 120.3PPG. Offensively the Lakers are ‘average’ in terms of offensive efficiency ranking 15th in the NBA. As we previously mentioned, Denver has owned the Lakers with 9 straight wins, they rank 5th in offensive efficiency and 8th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets are 34-8 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +9.8PPG. Since the beginning of last season, the Nuggets are 78-17 SU at home +9.8PPG. LBJ and AD are soft like warm ice cream and both were dinged up a little in game 1 so don’t expect peak effort here. Lay it with Denver.

ASA top play on 10* Cleveland Cavaliers -5.5 vs. Orlando Magic, 7 PM ET - The young Magic had a fantastic regular season at 47-35 SU, but were 29-12 at home. On the road they were 18-23 with a negative differential of minus -3.5PPG. Orlando was great defensively this season ranking 2nd in DEFF but they struggled to score points ranking 22nd in OEFF while scoring just 110PPG. The Magic lack a big time shooter on their team and ranked 15th in team FG% overall, 24th in 3PT%. You can argue the Cavs are the same team ranking 18th in OEFF and 6th in DEFF. The Cavs though are a better overall shooting team at 47.9% (12th) and 36.7% in 3PT% (15th). Cleveland also played without their best scoring option in Donovan Mitchell (27PPG) who missed 27 games this season, along with Evan Mobley (16PPG) who missed 32 games and Darius Garland (18PPG) who only played 57 games. Despite all the missed time by key players the Cavs were still 26-15 SU at home in the regular season with the 11th best average point differential of +3.8PPG. In Game 1 the Cavs won by 14-points and they didn’t even play as well as we expected. The big edge the Cavaliers enjoyed in the opener and will not change here is their size and advantage on the board. Cleveland grabbed 54 rebounds compared to the Magic’s 40. We did expect the Magic to struggle offensively, and they did with only 32 combined points in the 2nd and 3 quarters. For the game the Magic shot just 33% overall and they may shoot better here but the Cavs are also going to improve over their Game 1 performance. Let’s lay it again in Game 2 with Cleveland.

ASA top play on 10* Oklahoma City Thunder -8 vs New Orleans Pelicans, 9:30 PM ET - The Pelicans have top 10 efficiency ratings in both offense and defense and are a team capable of coming out of the West statistically. But the reality is that they haven’t played up to those expectations lately with a 5-6 SU record and are now in trouble without Zion Williamson for the foreseeable future. The Pels are coming off two huge emotional home games just to get into the Playoffs and will have a tough time getting up for this Game 1. OKC is well rested, rank 3rd in offensive efficiency, 4th in defensive efficiency, are 33-8 SU at home and win on their own court by an average of +13.3PPG. OKC is 23-12 ATS as a home favorite this season with an average +/- in those games of +15.2PPG. The Thunder have won two straight in this series versus the Pelicans and 4 of the last five. We are backing the round 1, big home favorite in this matchup which has produced steady profits for 10+ years.

ASA top play on 10* Boston Celtics -13.5 vs Miami Heat, 1 PM ET - As soon as the Heat vs Bulls game went final I was immediately poised to bet on the Celtics at home minus the points. Boston opened briefly at -12.5 and I was all in. Clearly the line has been adjusted slightly but we still feel there is value with the Celtics. Boston was in cruise control late in the season as they had home court wrapped up and focused on staying healthy down the stretch. Boston was the best team in the NBA the entire season and has the deepest team in the league. The Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. They had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. They won at home by an average of +15.2PPG. The Celtics were near unbeatable at home and owned a 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. In February the C’s were favored by -8-points in Miami so this line isn’t as high as it seems. Miami lost Jimmy Butler to a knee injury in the Play-In games and don’t have enough weapons to trade baskets with Boston. The Heat used a zone defensive effectively against the 76ers and Bulls but those two teams rank 23rd and 18th in team FG%. The Celtics have the 8th best team FG% in the NBA and the 2nd best 3PT% so the Heat zone isn’t going to work in this one. Big favorites in Round 1 have done historically well with a 59% cover rate and we expect the Celtics to make quick work of the Heat who upset them in the Playoffs a year ago.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans +1.5 vs. Sacramento Kings, 9:30 PM ET - We can’t pass on the Pelicans as a home dog here. We’ve seen it happen a million times, when a Super Star gets injured, in the very next game, someone shines in their absence. New Orleans is coming off a very tough home loss to the Lakers (outscored by 15 at the FT line) and will bounce back here. Sacramento on the other hand is off a huge win over the Warriors who eliminated them from the postseason last year. These two teams met in Sacramento on April 11th in a ‘must win’ for both teams and the Pelicans never trailed in a 12-point win. The Kings were -1.5-points in that game at home and are now favored on the road? This is a matchup problem for the Kings as they’ve lost 5 straight times this season to New Orleans. The Pelicans are far superior defensively with the 7th best defensive efficiency compared to the Kings who rank 15th. We are expecting a close game throughout but like the Pelicans to get it done at home.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls -3 vs Atlanta Hawks, 9:30 PM ET - The Hawks have the worst defense in the playoffs, ranking 27th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.194-points per possession and 120.5PPG. On the road their defense is even worse, and they lost road games this season by an average of -5.4PPG. The Bulls were 20-21 SU at home this season with a negative differential of minus -0.2PPG but 6 of their most recent 7 home losses have come against some of the best teams in the NBA. In the most recent meeting between these two teams the Hawks pulled the upset as a +2-point underdog on this floor 113-101. The Bulls had a horrendous shooting night while the Hawks shot lights out. We expect Chicago to shoot much better this time around against a Hawks defense that is 28th in opponents FG% overall and 3PT% defense. Atlanta is 10-17 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -8.1PPG. The Bulls have a losing ATS record as a home favorite but they do have a positive point differential of +2PPG. The Hawks are without Jalen Johnson which is a huge loss for them even though they get Trae Young back. The Bulls had a few impressive wins late in the season against the T’Wolves, Knicks and Pacers and we expect that momentum to carry over to this game. Lay it with the Bulls.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -2 vs Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - If this game is like the last three in this rivalry it’s going to be close, but we like the veteran Warriors to pull out a win on the Kings court. The last three meetings have been decided by 1-point each with the Kings winning the last two games. Sacramento had their full complement of players for both of those W’s with Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk who are out here. The Warriors come into this game having won 10 of their last twelve games and have the 4th best Net rating (+9.1) in the NBA over that 12-game stretch. The Kings on the other hand have the 13th best Net rating at +3.8 and are 5-7 SU. Golden State is 25-16 SU on the road this season with the 4th best average point differential at +4.5PPG. The Kings are 24-17 SU at home with the 17th rated average point differential at +2.2PPG. With their shortened rotation the Kings have to rely heavily on Domantas Sabonis who has struggled when facing the Warriors and Draymond Green in the past. Golden State is peaking at the right time and we expect them to move on tonight.

ASA top play on 10* Indiana Pacers -14 vs. Atlanta Hawks, 1:10 PM ET - The Hawks are locked into the 9-10 matchup with the Bulls no matter what the outcome of this game. It will be much more important to get rest and stay healthy for that game. Indiana is treating this game like a Game 7 as a loss could potentially send them to a play in situation as low as the 8 seed. A win for the Pacers and they are guaranteed a top 6 seed. What makes the Pacers a more attractive large favorite than some of the other big chalks today in the NBA is the fact that they can put up a big offensive number here. Indiana is 2nd in offensive efficiency at 1.208PPP and scored 122.9PPG on the season. They are 25-15 SU at home this season and win on their home court by an average of +6PPG. Atlanta has struggled on the road this season with a 14-25 SU record and an average negative differential of minus -4.7PPG. Indiana has put up 157, 150 and 126 points in three games against the Hawks this season who have the 27th rated defensive efficiency rating in the league. The last two Pacer wins against the Hawks have come by 34 and 18-points.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs New Orleans Pelicans – 10 PM ET - Both teams have a ton to play for as far as seeding is concerned in the Western Conference. The Pelicans are trying to hold on to the 6th seed, while the Warriors are looking to move up from the 9th. Scheduling clearly favors the Warriors here who are off an easy win last night vs. Portland while the Pelicans are coming off a huge win in Sacramento last night. Golden State is 9-6-1 ATS when playing without rest this season with an average +/- of +6.1PPG. New Orleans is 7-5 ATS this season when playing without rest but the scheduling situation warrants a bet against them. Golden State looks like a team on a mission with a 9-1 SU record their last ten games, 4 of which have come against other playoff bound teams. New Orleans has won 3 straight, all on the road but this will also be their 3rd game in four nights and 4th in six days. Golden State has won and covered 3 of the last four meetings with the Pels and we like them by 8+ points here.

ASA top play on 10* NY Knicks -2.5 at Boston Celtics, 7:30 PM ET - The Celtics have nothing left to play for as they have the #1 overall seed locked up through the NBA Finals. New York on the other hand has plenty to play for as they sit in the 2nd seed in the Eastern Conference and could get the #2 seed if they win out or even fall back to the #6 or #7 if they lose out. Because of the circumstances you have to ignore the Celtics season dominance of the Knicks as they’ve won all 4 meetings with New York. Boston is going to sit players in this game (potentially Brown, Holiday, Tatum, Porzingis and Horford) and will waive the white flag early once they fall behind. The Knicks continue to get stellar play from PG Jalen Brunson (averaging 34PPG over his last 10 games) and now have Anunoby back in the lineup after missing several weeks with an injury. We love the Celtics depth but you can’t sit 3-5 of your starters and still expect to win in the NBA. New York clearly shouldn’t be favored on the road here, but the number tells us they are favored for a reason. Bet the Knicks.

ASA top play on 10* Orlando Magic - points vs Houston Rockets, 8:10 PM ET - After the Rockets colossal collapse against the Mavericks on Sunday which eliminated them from the postseason, we are betting they won’t show up for this game versus the Magic. We were very fortunate with our win on the Mavericks in that contest as the Rockets led from start to finish and were up by as many as 22-points at one time. It was a demoralizing loss to their in-state rival and now their season is essentially over. Orlando on the other hand still has plenty to play for as they currently sit 3rd in the East and could move up or even down depending on how they finish the season. Orlando is 18-20 SU away on the season and owns the 7th best defensive efficiency rating on the road as they allow just 1.140-points per possession. After winning 11 straight games the Rockets have now lost 5 straight and 3 of those came at home. Houston got off to a fantastic start at home this season but are now just 12-9 SU their last 21 on their home court. Orlando’s defense is top tier, ranking 8th in defensive net rating in their last 5 games, the Rockets are 30th or last in the NBA over that same 5-game stretch. Looking closer at both teams’ most recent 5-games we see the Magic rank 9th in overall Net rating, the Rockets rank 30th. We don’t see a team that is playing this poorly to all of a sudden rise to the occasion tonight in this meaningless game for them. Lay it with Orlando who wins this one going away.

ASA top play on Dallas Mavericks (-) vs Houston Rockets, Sunday 3:40 PM ET - The Mavs have 9 of their last ten games and 13 of their last fifteen. They have done it with defense as they have one of the best defensive Net ratings since the All-Star break. Since the ASB they have an average +/- of nearly 7PPG. Houston was red hot with an 11 game winning streak and looked like a team that could sneak into the 10th spot in the Western Conference. But a 4-game losing streak has essentially eliminated them from post season contention. The Rockets haven’t been competitive in their last four games with an average loss margin of 16PPG. These two teams met in Houston on March 31st with the Mavs a 4-point favorite on the road. Dallas won that game by 18-points. The Mavs have won 5 of the last six meetings and they will get another big win here.

ASA play on Phoenix Suns (-) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 10 PM ET - Scheduling has a lot to do with this assessment on this game as the Cavs are in a tough spot here having played in Utah last night. Not only that, but the Cavaliers are playing their 3rd game in four days and 4th game in six days. The Suns are rested as their last game came on April 1st, a win in New Orleans. Phoenix is facing a brutal 3-game stretch coming up against Western Conference contenders which makes this game extremely important. The Suns are also 14-6 SU with an average +/- of +6.4PPG when they hold a rest advantage over their opponents. Cleveland is 5-7 ATS when playing without rest and has a negative point differential in those games of minus -3.2PPG. When we evaluate each teams last ten games we find the Suns have a +3.0 Net differential, the Cavs are minus -5.2 AND the Suns have faced a much tougher schedule over that 10-game span. In this must-win situation we like the Suns by double-digits.

ASA play on LA Clippers (-) vs. Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Kings recently beat this Clippers team in Los Angeles as a +4-point dog, 123-107. Prior to that meeting the Clippers had won two games against the Kings 119-99 and 131-117. In the Kings most recent win over the Clippers though, they were basically at full strength with Monk and Huerter both available. Those two combined for 27 points, 5 rebounds and 7 assists in that game. Both are out here with injuries and the Kings depth is a major concern. In their last five games the Kings have slipped in both offensive and defensive Net ratings and have a net differential of minus -1.1. The Clippers have run hot/cold in recent weeks and right now it looks like they are running hot with 3 straight wins, all on the road. In fact, the Clippers have won 5 straight away from home and 7 of their last eight on the road. This L.A. team has the 4th best average point differential on the road this season at +3.8PPG and hold a 25-14 SU road record. The Kings are below league average in home court point differential with a +1.4PPG average which ranks them 20th in the NBA. Both have plenty to play for as they jockey for playoff position, but the injury concerns for the Kings will be the difference here. The visitor has also covered 5 of the last six in this series. Lay it with the Clippers.

#663 ASA PLAY ON Georgia + the points over Seton Hall, Tuesday at 9:30 PM ET - We like UGA’s success and path through this NIT much more than Seton Hall. The Bulldogs had to go on the road and beat both Wake Forest and Ohio State, 2 teams rated higher than Seton Hall in KenPom’s rankings, while the Pirates played all 3 NIT games at home. The average rating of the teams Seton Hall has played in the NIT is 82nd (all at home) while Georgia’s opponents have an average ranking of 44th and 2 of those games were on the road. We’d be a bit concerned if Georgia was playing another road game without much rest but that isn’t the case as they’ve had a full week off since beating Ohio State in Columbus. They won those 2 road games with starting center Tchewa out (8 PPG / 6 RPG) with an illness (played 5 minutes vs OSU and didn’t play vs WF) and he is back at full strength. The Dogs have been pretty solid away from home this year winning 7 games (away/neutral) while scoring 74.5 PPG and allowing 76.5 PPG. They do have a negative PPG margin away from home, but as you can see it’s close. Seton Hall has played only once away from home since March 2nd and that was in the Big East Tourney at MSG in New York City which is only 17 miles from campus. The Hall wasn’t great away from home this year scoring just 67 PPG while allowing 74.5 PPG and their shooting percentage dropped more than 5% on the road (42%). Georgia has been undervalued down the stretch covering 7 straight games and as a dog this year they are 12-8 ATS. We have this game power rated closer to pick-em so we’ll take the value with a surging Georgia team.

ASA top play on 10* Chicago Bulls + the points vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, 7:10 PM ET - We like the way the Bulls match up with the Timberwolves as they have the size and depth with Vucevic and Drummond to deal with Gobert and Reid in the paint. Chicago is the 10th best offensive rebounding teams in the NBA compared to the Timberwolves who rank 26th. The Wolves average 324.4 defensive rebounds per game, the Bulls average 32.6. Minnesota has won 4 straight games and are coming off a big win over the Nuggets a few nights back. The Bulls are off a tough loss to Brooklyn and have lost 4 of their last five but two of those came against the red hot Rockets and the Celtics. Chicago beat this Wolves team in early February by 6-points in OT. The Bulls have won 4 of the last 6 meetings with Minnesota. The T’Wolves have another big Western Conference game on deck versus the surging Rockets and may look past this Bulls team. The line is inflated and we will grab the value with the Bulls and the points.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Duke - the points over NC State, Sunday at 5 PM ET - We were wrong on Duke Friday night as we thought Houston would really limit them offensively which they did with the Devils scoring only 54 points. Problem was, Houston lost their top offensive player and one of the best guards in the nation, Jamal Shead, to an injury in the first half and they could get nothing going offensively after that. We pretty confident that injury cost the Cougars the game (lost 54-51). Either way, we’re now getting solid line value with Duke in this spot vs a team they’ve faced twice this season. Just 2 weeks ago in the ACC tourney, the Blue Devils were an 11 point favorite vs this NC State team and now they are laying only 6.5 on a neutral court. When the faced off @ NC State the number was the same as it is here with Duke as a 6 to 6.5 point true road favorite. The 2 teams split their games with Duke winning at NCSU by 15 and then losing by 5 in the ACC tournament. In their loss 2 weeks ago, Duke shot just 5 of 20 from deep (25%) while the Wolfpack hit 44% of their 3’s which was the difference in the game. Duke is the much better offense and better shooting team by quite a wide margin (13th best 3 points shooting team in the country / NCSU is 134th) so we expect those tables to turn here. In the 2 games Duke outrebounded NC State in both and had fewer turnovers in the 2 games combined. If the shooting gets back to form where the Blue Devils should hold a decent edge, they should cover this number. NC State is a bit fortunate to be here as Marquette was a terrible 4 of 31 (13%) from 3 point land with the majority being wide open looks. Just a bad shooting night for the Golden Eagles. Defensively they held the Pack to under 1.00 PPP but just couldn’t make an open shot. Speaking of 3 point variance, in their 3 NCAA tourney games, Wolfpack opponents (Texas Tech, Oakland, and Marquette) have combined to make only 23 of 97 shots from deep (23.7%). That’s against an NCSU defense that ranks 280th defending the arc. We anticipate the Devils drastically improving those numbers on Sunday. Duke gets a shot at some fairly quick revenge here and NC State is now officially overvalued on their 8 game winning streak. Lay it with Duke.

#653 ASA PLAY ON Clemson + the points over Alabama, Saturday at 8:45 PM ET - We went against Bama on Thursday night when they faced UNC. The Tide pulled out a tight 2 point win but the Heels shot just 38% overall vs a Crimson Tide defense that was rated by far the worst remaining in the Sweet 16 (104th in efficiency). The Heels attempted 11 more field goals and made 1 more FT but lost the game because of their poor shooting effort. Alabama shot 48% overall and 42% from beyond the arc and despite those shooting numbers which were much better than UNC’s their largest lead of the game was just 5 points. Bama is one of the fastest paced teams in the nation and there is no way Clemson gets into a run and gun game with them. The Tigers are a slower paced team and have tamed a few other fast paced teams during this tourney. On Thursday they took down Arizona (fast paced and top 11 in both offensive and defensive efficiency) and led pretty much throughout. In fact, the Wildcats largest lead of the game was just 1 point. Prior to that Clemson rolled a very good Baylor team who ranked 6th nationally in offensive efficiency at the time. Their defense has been outstanding holding New Mexico to 56 points (Lobos average 81 PPG), Baylor to 64 points (Bears average 80 PPG), and Arizona to 72 points (Wildcats average 87 PPG). These 2 already met this season and Clemson beat Bama on the road by 8 points, one of only two home losses this year for the Tide. The Tigers have proven they can get it done away from home with 12 wins this season (road & neutral) including some very impressive wins @ Alabama, @ North Carolina, and @ Pitt. One of their road losses was a last second 1 point loss @ Duke in which the Devils made 2 FT’s with under 1 second remaining to win. These 2 teams have the exact same 24-11 record with each facing top 20 strength of schedules. We have these 2 rated dead even on a neutral court so the value is with the dog. Take Clemson.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks (-) vs. Atlanta Hawks, 7:40 PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Bucks and fade the Hawks. The Hawks are coming off a thrilling OT win at home over the Celtics on Thursday night and could be flat here with a shortened rotation. The Bucks meanwhile are off a pair of difficult losses to the Lakers and Pelicans. In the win the other night over the Celtics the Hawks got a huge game from Dejonte Murray who poured in 44-points, but it took him 44-shots to get there. The Bucks have two solid perimeter defenders in Beasley and Beverly who should be able to slow down Murray here. Milwaukee’s recent loss was especially tough as they held the Pelicans to 40% shooting overall and 25% from the 3-point line but the Pels benefitted from 34 trips to the FT line compared to the Bucks 19. Milwaukee is solid off a loss with a 17-9 SU record and an average +/- in those games of +4.5PPG. The Bucks have an overall losing ATS record on the road as a favorite at 12-15 but they do own a positive differential of +4.5PPG. Atlanta is 4-7 ATS as a home dog this season with a negative differential of minus -3.9PPG. The Bucks should enjoy a shooting advantage here with the 7th best FG% offense facing a Hawks D that ranks 28th in opponents FG% allowing 49.4% on the season. Milwaukee is 8th in 3PT% offense, the Hawks are 28th in 3PT% defense. Atlanta does not shoot the ball well either, ranking 20th in team FG% while the Bucks are 11th best in the NBA in FG% D allowing 46.9%. This line might be a little intimidating to you but consider the Celtics were just favored by -16-points here the other night. Lay it with Milwaukee.

ASA play on Sacramento Kings over the Dallas Mavericks, 10:10 PM ET - These same two teams recently met on this court and the Mavs handed the Kings a 132-96 beatdown. Dallas had an unusually hot shooting night 55% from the field and 56% from Deep. The Kings had a horrible shooting night at 39% overall and 37% from the 3-point line. These two teams are shooting roughly 48% from the field for the season, so you can see the disparity in the last game compared to ‘average’ statistics. The Kings had beaten the Mavs twice this season prior to Tuesday’s game and we expect them to get immediate payback here. Sacramento is 19-10 SU coming off a loss this season with an average +/- of +3.2PPG. Dallas is great as a road favorite but just 5-11 SU as an away underdog. Sacramento has a positive point differential at home, the Mavs have a negative differential on the road. Take the Kings here.

#646 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Houston -3.5 over Duke, Friday at 9:40 PM ET - Houston is the type of team Duke will struggle with. The Cougs are an in your face defense that plays very physical. The rank 2nd nationally in defensive efficiency and eFG% allowed and 3rd in defensive turnover rate. This will be the best defense Duke has faced this season by quite a wide margin. UNC was the best defense (efficiency wise) in the ACC and they handled Duke twice fairly easily. The Heels don’t create turnovers however (outside the top 300). The ACC had one team rank in the top 25 in defensive turnover rate, Florida State, and in their game vs the Noles, Duke (finished 7th in the ACC in offensive turnover rate) turned the ball over on a whopping 25% of their possessions. Now they get a Houston defense that combines efficiency and turnover rate at the highest level. Duke rolled through their first 2 opponents, Vermont (13 seed) and JMU (12 seed), but they now take a huge step up in competition. Houston got their scare in the round of 32 topping a red hot Texas A&M team in OT. The Cougars led that game by 13 with just over 3:00 minutes remaining before the Aggies made their crazy comeback. Much is made of Houston’s outstanding defense, but their offense ranks 14th in efficiency so this team is very balanced. They are 32-4 on the season facing the 22nd most difficult schedule (Duke has faced the 69th SOS) and only 1 of their 32 wins has come by less than 4 points. Duke has faced 3 games this season vs teams in the top 10 per KenPom and they are 0-3 SU in those games (Houston ranked #2). The Devils beat up on the teams they should but they tend to struggle vs high level teams. They are just 5-4 SU in Quad 1 games this season while Houston is 17-4 SU vs Quad 1 opponents. On the similar note, Duke is 0-2 ATS as a dog this season (losses vs UNC & Wake) and 0-4 ATS getting points the last 2 seasons. In regards to the NCAA tourney, Duke beats lower seeded teams in the Dance but when they step up, the struggle. IN fact the last time Duke beat a higher seed in the NCAA tourney was 1994! This veteran Houston team was ousted in the Sweet 16 last year and they are on a mission this season. It’s a semi home game for Houston (in Dallas), they are the better, more physical team and we like them to get the win and cover on Friday.

ASA play on Indiana Pacers over the LA Lakers, 7:10 PM ET - We like the Pacers to bounce back here off a 26-point loss on Wednesday in Chicago to the Bulls. This is also a quick rematch as the Lakers recently beat the Pacers in L.A. 150-145. The Lakers are playing their 3rd straight road game and have won 5-straight games. Indiana has the 10th best average margin of victory at home at +5.0PPG and owns a 21-15 SU record on their home court this season. The Pacers have done well when coming off a loss this season with a 21-11 SU record and a +3.0PPG average MOV in those games. The Lakers have had their struggles on the road this season with a 14-20 SU record and a negative average point differential of minus -5.0PPG. The Lakers hold an advantage defensively with the 15th rated defensive efficiency rating compared to the Pacers who rank 25th. Offensively though the Pacers rank 2nd in OEFF, the Lakers are 16th. The Lakers fell into the trap of playing fast with the Pacers in the most recent meeting and when they do that here it won’t end well for them. Back the Pacers at home, off a loss, playing with revenge.

#636 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -4 over Alabama, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - UNC is the much more balanced team in this one ranking in the top 16 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency. While Bama has a great offense, their defense is by far the worst remaining in the Sweet 16 ranking outside the top 100 in both efficiency and eFG% allowed. The Tide simply wasn’t playing well down the stretch and they’ve been fortunate to get to the Sweet 16. Since mid February they rank just 49th nationally in team efficiency (per Bart Torvik) and 163rd in defensive efficiency. UNC ranks 9th and 10th in the nation per those 2 metrics during that time period. Prior to the Big Dance, Alabama had lost 4 of their previous 6 games and one of their two wins during that stretch was in OT at home vs Arkansas, one of the worst teams in the SEC. In the Dance they opened with College of Charleston whose defense ranked outside the top 200 in eFG% and 3 point FG % allowed which matches up very poorly vs the Alabama offense (Bama shot 60% for the game). Even with that, C of C lost but put up nearly 100 points on Bama (109-96 final). Over the weekend they topped Grand Canyon in what was a close game throughout (CG led with 6:00 remaining in the game) despite the Antelopes missing 14 FT’s and making only 2 of their 20 three point attempts and hitting only 32% of their shots overall! UNC comes in off 2 easy wins including topping Michigan State, easily the best opponent either of these 2 have played in the Dance, by a final score of 85-69. MSU’s defense was playing fantastic leading into that game (7th nationally in defensive efficiency since mid February and 11th for the entire season) but the Heels ate them up for 85 points on 1.20 PPP. What are they going to do to a bad Bama defense? On offense the Tide don’t create turnovers but they thrive on offensive rebounding for 2nd chances. Versus Grand Canyon the corralled 43% of their misses giving them a number of 2nd chance points which gave them the edge along with CG’s terrible shooting night. That won’t happen here vs a great rebounding team in UNC who ranks 6th nationally in defensive rebounding. UNC was 14-6 SU this season in road/neutral games while Alabama had a losing record in that situation. We’ve been hoping that Alabama would make it here so we had a chance to fade them vs a high level opponent. Take North Carolina to roll in this game.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans (+) vs Milwaukee Bucks, 8:10 PM ET - More money and tickets have come in on the Bucks, yet the line has fluctuated in the direction of the Pelicans. Both teams are off disappointing losses as the Bucks lost at home to the Lakers after blowing a lead late in that game. The Pelicans lost a crucial home game to Oklahoma City as the Thunder shot 53% in a 7-point win. Both teams are great when coming off a loss as the Bucks are 17-8 SU in that situation, the Pelicans are 18-9 SU. Milwaukee is 17-18 SU on the road this season with a negative overall differential at minus -0.2PPG. New Orleans is 20-14 SU at home with an average Margin of Victory of +5.4PPG. The Pelicans have been great against non-conference opponents with an 18-9 SU record and an average +/- of +7.7PPG. The Bucks versus the West is 15-12 SU +0.2PPG. We like the Pelicans here to get a win on their home floor.

#624 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Utah -6 over VCU, Wednesday at 9 PM ET - VCU has made a very impressive run through the NIT to this point but this is where it ends. Not only has this team been on the road for 3 NIT games already (this will be the 4th), but if we go back to the A10 tourney (Brooklyn, NY) and the end of the regular season this will be the Rams 8th straight road game. Those games have been crammed into a short time period as well. In fact, since the start of the A10 tourney, this will be VCU’s 7th straight game away from home in just 15 days. In the NIT alone, they’ve already traveled to Philadelphia, then Tampa on Sunday, and now Salt Lake City where they’ll play in high altitude for the first time this season. Not ideal for a team that has played 7 games in 15 days. Utah, on the other hand, will be playing their 3rd straight home game and just their 3rd game in 13 days since losing to Colorado in the Pac 12 tourney back on March 14th. VCU’s defense has carried them to this point holding Villanova & South Florida to 65 points or less but now they face a Utah offense that has scored 81 & 84 points in their 2 NIT games. At home the Utes are 16-2 on the year with 1 of those losses coming vs Sweet 16 participant Arizona and that loss was in triple OT. Utah hits over 49% of their shots and 39% of their 3’s at home while averaging 85 PPG. Tired legs made worse in high altitude for the Rams will be a problem both slowing down Utah’s offense along with trying to keep up and make shots on the other end. Lay it with Utah.

ASA top play on 10* Dallas Mavericks +1.5 at Sacramento Kings, 10 PM ET - The Mavs have a slight scheduling advantage here as both teams played last night but the Kings are playing their 3rd game in four days and 5th in seven nights. As we mentioned, Dallas is also off a game last night in Utah, but they had been off since the 21st prior. The Mavs are 21-12 ATS on the road this season and have been great playing without rest with an 8-3 ATS record and an average +/- of +3.3PPG. Sacramento on the other hand is 4-8 ATS when playing without rest with a negative differential of minus -3.8PPG. The Kings have beaten the Mavericks twice already this season so we know the Mavs will come into this game with a chip on their shoulders. Sacramento is only 6-5 SU their last eleven games going into Monday night and two of those wins were against the Spurs and one versus the Grizzlies. The Mavericks are 4-2 SU their last six on the road heading into Monday night. Dallas owns the 7th best EFG% in the NBA since the All-Star break, the Kings are 12th. The road team has covered 6 of the last seven in this series and we are betting that trend continues here.

#609 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Georgia +9 over Ohio State, Tuesday at 7 PM ET - Georgia has had an impressive run this far in the NIT beating Xavier at home and then topping Wake Forest (the highest rated team in the NIT per KenPom) on the road on Sunday. We’re a little concerned that the Dogs have to play 2 days later on the road again, but this is a deep team that ranks 77th in bench minutes which helps in this case. In Sunday’s win UGA played 9 players double digit minutes and only 1 logged 30+ minutes. Wake was without starting guard Sallis in that game which obviously helped, however the Dogs were at a disadvantage as well with starting center Tchewa who was sick on Sunday. They are hoping he’s back and ready on Tuesday @ OSU. The Buckeyes are a bit banged up themselves. New head coach Diebler, who had the interim tag removed last week, gave them a day off after beating Va Tech over the weekend to try and recover from some of their ailments. Their best player, PG and leader Thornton (16 PPG), took a shot to the leg in the Va Tech win and he is questionable here. OSU won and covered vs the Hokies but they weren’t overly impressive getting outshot percentage wise from the field and from 3 point land, however the Bucks made 29 FT’s to just 16 for VT. Despite the large disparity at the line, OSU only won the game by 8 points. Georgia has proven a decent road team with near .500 record in true road games (5-6 SU) and only 2 of those losses came by more than 9 points (OSU -8.5 in this one) vs NCAA tourney teams Auburn & Mississippi State. OSU has won their first 2 NIT games by 5 points vs Cornell and by 8 vs Va Tech with a +21 made FT disparity (combined in those 2 games) yet both were close. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Milwaukee Bucks -2.5 vs Oklahoma City Thunder, 7 PM ET - We have to back the Bucks here at home as a small favorite. Milwaukee has won 5 straight at home and are 28-6 SU at home this season with an average +/- of +7.4PPG. Going back even further the Bucks are 61-17 SU at home since the start of last season with an average MOV of +6.6PPG. With a low number on this game we need Milwaukee to win outright and they are finally healthy with Middleton, Giannis and Lillard on the floor. We are not blind to the fact that the Thunder are one of the best road teams in the NBA at 21-13 SU but we aren’t impressed with their last 3 wins on the road as they came against the Raptors, Grizzlies and Blazers. With the season winding down we like how the Bucks are playing and they look like a team that could contend to win it all this season. The Thunder are obviously very good but Milwaukee has owned them in recent years by winning 5 straight in the series and 7 of the last eight meetings.

#827 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* James Madison +7.5 over Duke, Sunday at 5:15 PM ET - Impressive performance by JMU on Friday dominating a good Wisconsin team despite the Dukes shooting only 41% overall and 29% from deep, well below their season averages. They were extremely aggressive defensively turning the Badgers over a season high 19 times from a team that averages less than 10 TO’s per game. The refs let them play in that game and if they do the same here, JMU has a very good shot at the straight up win. Duke doesn’t handle aggressive, physical play very well in our opinion. The 2 teams in the ACC who are similar to JMU as far as defensive turnover rate are FSU & Syracuse and Duke had 28 combined turnovers in their 2 games with those teams. On Friday the Blue Devils faced a Vermont team that rarely turns teams over (304th nationally) and they still turned the ball over 15% of their possessions. Vermont’s offense was terrible with a 0.78 PPP and they were dominated on the boards as we expected. Duke also made 18 more FT’s in the game which was obviously significant in a 17 point win. They won’t out physical JMU and their won’t be any domination on the glass for Duke in this game. Our one fear is the refs call this one tighter than the Wisconsin game (it is Duke and they tend to get the benefit of the doubt from the zebras) but even if that happens we still like James Madison to hang around. Duke wasn’t playing great entering this tourney (3-3 SU record their previous 6 games) but had a favorable draw with Vermont who isn’t overly physical and not a great shooting team this year. That’ changes on Sunday. JMU has only 3 losses this season and only one by more than 6 points. Take the points.

ASA top play on 10* Phoenix Suns -9.5 vs San Antonio Spurs, 8 PM ET - The Suns are finally healthy for the first time of the season and building continuity as they head to the playoffs. Phoenix has won 2 straight games handily with wins over the Hawks by 13 and the 76ers by 13-points. San Antonio is coming off a game against Memphis on Friday and they've struggled when playing without rest. The Spurs are 2-9 SU when playing without rest this season with a negative differential of minus -10.4PPG. When the Suns are facing a team and have a rest advantage they are 12-6 SU +4.9PPG. The last time the Suns were a road favorite they won by 22-points. Phoenix has two huge games looming against Denver and OKC so they had better win this game. We like the Suns in a big win here.

#796 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* NC State -6.5 over Oakland, Saturday at 7:10 PM ET - We faded NC State on Thursday vs a very good Texas Tech team thinking they would have some lingering affects from their 5 games in 5 days ACC tourney run the previous weekend. Well they didn’t look sluggish as they rolled to a double digit win over the Red Raiders. NCSU now takes a big step down in competition from what they’ve been playing to this point. The Wolfpack have now won 6 straight games including wins over teams ranked 8th, 9th, 32nd, 71st and 86th per KenPom. They won all but 1 of those games by at least 8 points. Now they face an Oakland team ranked 130th and to put that in perspective that would put them as the 2nd worst team in the ACC ahead of only Louisville. We really respect the Grizzlies program and head coach Greg Kampe but they simply shot lights out from deep in their win over Kentucky. They hit nearly 50% of their triples and Jack Gohlke, who’s hitting 36% of this 3’s this season, attempted 20 and made 10 in the win. We don’t see them duplicating that here. They were facing a young Kentucky team with 5 freshman in their rotation playing in their first NCAA tourney. Now they face an NC State team that plays all juniors and seniors. Oakland is a fairly small team with 1 player that is over 6’7 and we don’t think they have anyone to match up with NCSU’s big man Burns who has averaged 16 PPG on 62% shooting during this 6 game run. We’re backed here by a strong round 2 NCAA trend that says teams that win in round 1 as double digit favorites are 4-18 SU (7-15 ATS) in their 2nd game dating back to 2005. NC State moves on to the Sweet 16 with a win and cover here.

#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Ohio State -3.5 over Virginia Tech, Saturday at 7 PM ET - We love the way OSU has played down the stretch this parting ways with head coach Holtmann. The players love interim coach Diebler and he was just named head coach moving forward so we sense some excitement with the players in this program. Since letting Holtmann loose, the Buckeyes have gone 7-2 with one of those losses coming by just 3 points vs Illinois in the Big 10 tourney. That was a game the Bucks led by 10 points midway through the 2nd half. They had a bit of a scare in the opening round of the NIT but held off Cornell 88-83. The Big Red hit 49% of their shots in that game to stay close but OSU dominated the boards with a +17 rebound margin. Saturday they face a Va Tech team that beat Richmond at home in the NIT opener but now must go on the road where they’ve won only 2 games the entire season. The Hokies have a PPG margin of -8 on the road this season and they have only 3 quad 1 wins this season with the most recent coming in January. OSU is 14-4 at home with 3 of their 4 home losses coming vs NCAA tourney teams (Wisconsin, Illinois, and Texas A&M). The Buckeyes average home score this year is 77-67 and we expect them to win and cover on Saturday. Lay the 4 points.

ASA top play on 10* Golden State Warriors -4.5 vs Indiana Pacers, 10 PM ET - The Warriors will look to build on their momentum following a blowout home win over the Grizzlies on Wednesday night. Golden State looked very good in that game shooting 58% overall and 49% from Deep. That shooting success should carry over here against a Pacers team that rank 29th in opponents FG% allowing 49.9%. Not to mention Indiana doesn’t defend the 3-point line well as they allow foes to hit 36.9% of their 3PT attempts which ranks 20th. Indiana is obviously a great shooting team themselves, but the Warriors defense ranks 8th in opponents 3PT% and 12th in FG% defense. The Pacers have also struggled shooting in recent games with an EFG% of 55.2% which ranks 16th in the league over the last 5-games. Golden State is 17-9 SU/ATS when facing an Eastern Conference foe this season. Indiana is 10-14-2 ATS versus the Western Conference. Golden State went to Indianapolis in early February and destroyed the Pacers 131-109 and never trailed in the game. Expect another dominating performance here.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Baylor -13.5 over Colgate, Friday at 12:40 PM ET - Colgate won the Patriot League as they’ve become accustomed to but this is not one of Matt Langel’s better teams. They are ranked 144th per Ken Pom which is their lowest rating to end the regular season since 2018. Last year they were ranked 30 spots higher, made the NCAA tourney and got rolled by another Big 12 team Texas who won by 20 points. The Raiders lost all 4 games vs top 100 competition this season with 3 of those set backs coming by at least 17 points. There isn’t a single team in the Patriot League ranked higher than 260 (besides Colgate) so it’s been a long time since this team faced a high level opponent. Their strength of schedule is 340th and they faced only 6 opponents that fell into quad 1 or 2 this season and finished 1-5 in those games. Baylor is a top 15 team per KenPom and one of the best offensive units in the nation. Unlike Colgate the Bears faced 19 Quad 1 teams this year and finished those games with a winning record (10-9). They are the 6th best 3 point shooting team in the nation with 3 guys in the rotation hitting over 41% from deep. They are also the 6th most efficient offense in the country averaging 1.22 PPP. The Raiders have very solid numbers guarding the arc, however is that because their defense is high level or because they faced mainly poor shooting teams. We’ll lean toward the latter. They didn’t face a single 3 point shooting team in the Patriot that ranked above 120th and the average 3 point percentage rank of the teams they faced in conference play was 235th. Colgate isn’t an overly efficiency offensive team this season (209th) and we just think they’ll have trouble keeping up in this game. We like Baylor to roll.

#734 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Texas Tech -4.5 over NC State, Thursday at 9:40 PM ET - The situation heavily favors Tech in this game. The Red Raiders beat BYU by 14 in the opening round of the Big 12 tourney and then lost to Houston last Friday. That means they’ve had nearly a full week to get rest and get ready for this one. NC State, on the other hand, played 5 games in 5 days and won the ACC Tourney to get into the Dance otherwise they were not in. They were underdogs in each of the last 4 games of that tourney and won each. Now playing on Thursday rather than Friday is not ideal for this Wolfpack team that isn’t very deep to begin with. Let’s keep in mind that prior to their 5 game stretch in the ACC tourney, the Wolfpack had only win 4 of their previous 14 games with 3 of those wins coming vs non NCAA tournament teams. Tech was a bit under the radar this year but this team is very good. They finished tied for 3rd place in the ultra tough Big 12 (tied with Baylor) behind only Houston & Iowa State, 2 top 6 teams nationally per KenPom. NC State finished with a losing record in a down ACC and wouldn’t be here at all if not for a 5 game run in the tourney. Texas Tech has better numbers both offensive and defensive efficiency along with better eFG% stats on both ends of the court. The Raiders get to the line more often as well and when they do they hit 78%. They also are one of the top 3 point shooting teams in the country (37th) and they are facing an NCSU defense that ranks 246th defending the arc. Tech played the tougher schedule and has a fairly large advantage in efficiency margin despite that. Tech is the better team and in a much better situation. We’ll lay it.

ASA top play on 10* Houston Rockets -2.5 vs Chicago Bulls, 8:10 PM ET - The Rockets are on a 6-game winning streak and have won 8 of their last 10 games with the two losses to playoff bound Phoenix and the Clippers. Houston has been solid all season long at home with a 23-11 SU / 23-10-1 ATS record. The Rockets win at home by an average of +6.1PPG. Chicago is 3-3 SU their last six games and 6-4 SU their last ten. On the road this season the Bulls are 16-18 SU with a negative loss margin of minus -3PPG. The Bulls are beat up right now with several players potentially out for this game including Caruso and White. Offensively these two teams have very similar statistic but the Rockets hold a big advantage defensively. Chicago is 19th in offensive efficiency, the Rockets are 20th. Houston has the 6th best FG% defense in the NBA and the 3rd best 3PT% D. The Rockets allow just 1.128-points per possession which is the 7th best number in the NBA. The Bulls by comparison allow 1.161PPP which ranks 17th. The play here is on the Rockets.

#750 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Gonzaga -6.5 over McNeese State, Thursday at 7:25 PM ET - Everyone seems to be on McNeese but we like this match up for the Zags. McNeese had played nobody this year with a 336th SOS. They have only played 2 top 100 teams all season and their big win early was vs Michigan and Wolverines ended up being terrible this year so not the huge win we thought it was at the time. McNeese has great defensive numbers, however they’ve played nobody with an offense like the Zags. In fact, not a single offense in the Southland Conference ranks in the top 200 in efficiency so the numbers are skewed. Same on offense for the Cowboys. Very good numbers but the Southland has one defense ranked in the top 200 in efficiency. Gonzaga ranks 9th nationally in offensive efficiency and they are the 2nd best shooting team in the nation at almost 52%. McNeese really thrives on creating turnovers which turn into extra possessions, however Gonzaga doesn’t turn the ball over (14th in the country in offensive turnover rate). The Cowboys are also one of the shortest teams in the Dance and we project Gonzaga will dominate the boards in this one. The Zags are off loss in WCC Championship game and 10 days off to put that behind them. Prior to that had won 14 of 15 including winning @ Kentucky in February. Mark Few is simply a great coach – 24 straight NCAA appearances – with an NCAA tourney record of 41-22 SU. The game is out west in Salt Lake City so Gonzaga should have a strong home court type advantage as their fans travel very well. We like this McNeese team but they haven’t played a single team anywhere close to as good as Gonzaga this year. This number seems light so we’ll lay the 6.5 points.

#712 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Indiana State -7 over SMU, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - We expect Indiana State to come into this one with a huge chip on their shoulder after being shunned by the NCAA tournament committee. They absolutely deserved to be in the Big Dance as they rank 45th overall per Ken Pom which is higher than 30 teams that are in the NCAA tourney including a number of at large teams including Virginia, Northwestern, South Carolina, and Drake. The Sycamores were 13-1 SU at home this season and 28-6 overall. They are the best shooting team in the NATION in regards to eFG% and they rank #1 inside the arc making 62% of their shots and 11th nationally in 3 point shooting at 38.5%. On top of that, they make over 80% of their FT attempts. They lost by 4 points vs Drake (who is favored in the NCAA tourney over Washington State) in the MVC Championship but they’ve had a chance to recover as that was 10 days ago. SMU looked like they had a decent shot at the NCAA in late February (ranked 42nd per KenPom at that time) but they tanked it big time down the stretch losing 5 of their last 6 games and dropped 20+ spots in KenPom’s ratings. The Mustangs overall are ranked 66th per Bart Torvik, however since mid November this team ranks 124th so a sharp drop off over the last month as we discussed. Their defense during that stretch since mid February ranks 142nd in efficiency which will be a big problem vs Indiana State’s potent offense. ISU, on the other hand, was still playing very well down the stretch winning 15 of their last 18 games yet was excluded from the NCAA which is the direct opposite of how SMU was playing late. With Indiana State playing at home with a lot of rest we see them playing very well in this game vs an SMU team that may not be as interested limping into this road game. Lay it.

#671 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Colorado State -2.5 over Virginia, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - We wanted to fade this UVA team in the ACC tourney but they kept getting favorable draws which prevented us from doing that. They faced Boston College playing their 3rd game in 3 days and the Cavs squeaked by with an OT win. Then they faced an NC State team playing their 4th game in 4 days and Virginia lost that game in OT. Most didn’t think they deserved to be in the tourney and we agree. Their offense is just bad, averaging only 63 PPG and they didn’t reach 60 in regulation in either of their 2 ACC tourney games. The Cavs were held to less than 60 points in 6 of their final 8 games and they make their 3’s at a decent rate (36%) they have very little inside game ranking 310th in 2 point FG%. They are facing a solid CSU defense that led the Mountain West in 2 point FG% defense so UVA better be making their 3’s or they are in trouble. The Rams defense as a whole has been very solid this season ranking in the top 40 in defensive efficiency and they should have a huge edge offensively. They rank 13th nationally in FG% hitting 49% of their shots and CSU averages 76 PPG. Neither team is great at offensive rebounding and both protect the ball well (few turnovers) so we don’t see many extra possessions for either side. If this one is close as the spread suggests, FT shooting could loom large and CSU has a huge edge there hitting 76% of their freebies compared to 63% for Virginia. The Rams have much better adjusted efficiency margin numbers AND they played the tougher strength of schedule on top of that (65th SOS to UVA’s 77th SOS). Lay the small number with Colorado State.

#684 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Butler -3.5 over Minnesota, Tuesday at 9 PM ET - Minnesota had a shot at the NCAA tourney in mid February but this team faded down the stretch losing 5 of their last 6 teams. They weren’t competitive in any of those 5 losses with all coming by double digits. They aren’t a deep team and their head coach Ben Johnson basically said they ran out of gas. It’s going to be tough for them to go on the road and get a win here. They’ve only won 2 road games all season and those game vs Michigan (the worst team in the Big 10) and Penn State (had a losing record). Watching them down the stretch, we’re not sure this Minnesota team will be all that fired up to play in the NIT, especially on the road, despite what they are saying in the media. Butler is much more likely to bring intensity in this one playing at home. The Bulldogs are the better defensive team (51st defensive efficiency vs 133rd for Minnesota per Bart Torvik) and they are in the top 70 nationally in offensive turnover ratio compared to the Gophs that have a much higher turnover rated ranking 215th. As you might expect looking at the turnover rate stats, we like Butler’s backcourt much better than Minnesota’s which is key. The Bulldogs have a very solid 3 guard line up (Brooks, Alexander, and Davis) that combines to average 40 PPG and almost 9 assists per game. Butler is a solid 3 point shooting team (35%) and they are facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 324th guarding the arc. As we’ve stated many times this year, it what is expected to be a close game, FT’s will most likely be key. Butler makes 79% of their FT’s (9th best nationally) and Minnesota hits just 69% from the stripe (291st nationally). Lay it with Butler.

ASA top play on 10* New Orleans Pelicans -7.5 at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET - We will look to fade the Nets who are returning home after a 6-game road trip that saw them go 1-5 SU with losses to the Pistons, Hornets and Spurs who are three of the worst teams in the NBA. New Orleans has had a few days off and are on a heater right now with 2 straight wins and W’s in 6 of their last seven games. They have also covered 6 of their last seven overall with three in a row on the road. In their last three road games the Pelicans have a 13-point win in Atlanta, an 8-point win in Philly and a 41-blowout in Toronto. New Orleans should enjoy success from beyond the Arc tonight with their 5th best 3PT% going up against a Nets defense that ranks 23rd in 3PT% defense. The Pelicans should also enjoy a sizable advantage on the boards with a top 10 rebounding team going up against a bottom 10 rebounding team in Brooklyn. New Orleans is 9-8 ATS as a road favorite but they do have an average MOV of +10.9PPG. The Nets are 8-9-1 ATS as a home dog with an average loss margin of minus -4.8PPG. These teams met back in January with the Pelicans winning 112-85. This time around won’t be as dramatic of a victory, but we like the Pels to win by double-digits.

#670 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Howard -3 over Wagner, Tuesday at 6:40 PM ET - Howard made the Big Dance last season and they returned 4 of their top 8 rotation players from that team so they have some experience in this situation. They also added F Seth Towns who played for Ohio State last year and he’s putting up over 12 PPG. This team is decent offensively averaging 75 PPG and hitting 37% of their triples (31st nationally). That’s a problem for Wagner who has a very poor offense. Can they keep up? Wagner averages just 63 PPG (352nd nationally) and they rank 334th in offensive efficiency, 353rd in eFG%, and 358th in 2 point FG%. Those numbers are bad, especially playing in the Northeast Conference that has half of their teams ranked outside the top 300 in defensive efficiency. Wagner has decent defensive numbers but all of the offenses in their conference rank outside the top 250 and 6 of those 10 teams rank outside the top 300 in offensive efficiency. Their opponent tonight, Howard, would easily be the best offense in the Northeast Conference. Now add in the fact that Wagner wasn’t even close to the best team in their conference, finishing with a losing record (6th place), but made a run in the NEC tourney to get here. They are banged up and thin with only 7 healthy players heading into this tourney. We’ll take the Howard Bison to win and cover on Tuesday.

ASA top play on 10* San Antonio Spurs -1.5 vs Brooklyn Nets, 8 PM ET - The Spurs are still playing hard despite a horrendous season in the win/loss column. The Nets still have an outside shot to make the post season but they are just 13-31 SU their last 44 games. Even in losing lately the Spurs have been competitive against playoff bound teams such as Denver, Golden State, Sacramento, Indiana, OKC and Minnesota in recent weeks. In their last ten game stretch they have three quality wins against the Thunder, Pacers and Warriors. Tonight they catch the Nets coming off a game last night in Indianapolis and this will be Brooklyn’s 6th straight road contest. Brooklyn is 10-23 SU on the road this season with an average loss margin of minus -6.9PPG which is the 24th highest differential in the NBA. The Nets are 4-6-1 ATS when playing the second night of a back-t0-back this season with a negative average differential of minus -10.1PPG. They are 1-7 ATS as a Dog when playing without rest this season. San Antonio has only been favored in 5 games this season and they’ve covered 4 of them. Take the Spurs in this one.

#644 ASA TOP PLAY ON VCU -2 over Duquesne, Sunday a 1 PM ET - VCU was the better team in the A10 all season long and we’ll lay the small number here. The Rams had a higher adjusted efficiency margin vs nearly the exact same strength of schedule. Duquesne has a tendency to struggle offensively and playing their 4th game in 4 days may intensify those struggles. They have failed to top 70 points in 5 of their last 6 games and they rank 14th in the league (out of 15 teams) in offensive efficiency averaging just 1.00 PPP. They should struggle here vs a VCU defense that has held all 3 opponents in the A10 tourney to 62 points or fewer. VCU is also playing their 4th game in 4 days but they are a much better offensive team averaging 1.06 PPP on A10 play, they rank as the 2nd best 3 point shooting team in the conference and make 79% of their FT’s in league play. Both teams are obviously very motivated as the winner moves onto the Big Dance and the loser does not, however we may have a little extra incentive for VCU who lost their regular season home finale to this Duquesne team. We’ll put an asterisk by that win for the Dukes as VCU played without their leading scoring Shulga (15 PPG) who is back and put up 25 points in yesterday’s win over St Joes. The Atlantic 10 Finals has been very chalky with the favorite going 21-9-1 ATS over the last 31 seasons. We’ll call for another favorite to cover and take VCU today.

ASA top play on 10* Sacramento Kings -3 or -3.5 vs NY Knicks, 10 PM ET - We like the surging Kings in this matchup and expect Sacramento to light the beam in this home contest against the Knicks. Sacramento is 4-1 SU their last five games and it includes a win over the Bucks and two against the Lakers. In their last ten games they also have wins over the Timberwolves and Clippers. New York is 3-2 SU their last five games, but the wins aren’t as impressive as they came against the Magic, struggling 76ers and a bad Portland team. There is a lot of talk about the Knicks recent defensive prowess but again those numbers are skewed based on the offenses they’ve faced. Tonight they face a Kings offense that is one of the best in the league. Sacramento is 9th in offensive efficiency at 1.178-points per possession, they rank 9th in team FG% and 7th in EFG%. In analyzing each teams last five games we see the Knicks have the #1 defensive efficiency rating in the league allowing .977PPP but they are 27th in offensive efficiency in that same 5-game stretch. Conversely, the Kings have the 3rd best OEFF in their last five games AND rank 9th in DEFF. NY is 7-10-1 ATS as a road dog with a negative differential of minus -2.9PPG. Sacramento has a losing spread record at home as a favorite but do own a positive average scoring differential of +1.8PPG. The Knicks are going to have a tough time keeping up offensively in this game as the Kings have too many weapons with Fox and Sabonis.

#634 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* North Carolina -9.5 over NC State, Saturday at 8:30 PM ET - NC State has made a valiant run in the ACC tourney to this point but this is where it ends. The Wolfpack are playing their 5th game in 5 days (+ OT last night vs UVA) with a short line up of just 7 rotation players. They caught some breaks along the way with Duke, one of the top 3 point shooting teams, hitting just 5 of 20 triples 2 nights ago in a 5 point Wolfpack win. And it’s not as if NC State is a lockdown defensive team from beyond the arc ranking 263rd nationally defending the 3 point line. Last night they trailed by 6 with 45 seconds remaining in the game and UVA went onto to miss FT’s down the stretch (6 of 11 for the game) and NCSU banked in a 3 at the buzzer to send the game to OT where they won. That was despite the Pack hitting 11% higher from the field compared to UVA and making 8 more FT’s they still had to go to OT to get the win. UNC was easily the best team team in the ACC this year and they are “rested” compared to NCSU playing just their 3rd game in this tourney. The Heels rank #1 in the ACC most defensive metrics (6th nationally in defensive efficiency) and should limit the Wolfpack offense that will have tired legs. UNC should also dominate the boards, for fatigue issues and because they are the #1 offensive & defensive rebounding team in the ACC which will give them extra opportunities vs NC State who ranks 13th in the ACC in defensive rebounding and now tired legs on top of that. The Heels should also win the FT battle with NC State fouling as much as any team in the ACC and UNC makes 75% of their freebies on the season. UNC won both games during the regular season by 9 & 13 points and that was under normal circumstances, not facing NC State playing their 5th game in 5 days. UNC is battling for a #1 seed in the tourney so they are still motivated and they should roll up a big win here.

#618 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Florida -1.5 or -2 over UAB, Saturday at 3 PM ET - We were on USF on Friday and they rolled to a huge win over East Carolina. The Bulls were in must win mode and while they move 1 step closer to the NCAA tourney, they really can’t lose this game and leave the decision in the hands of the committee on Sunday. They are still a bubble team despite their 24-6 record. They’ve been the best team in the AAC all season long and continue to get very little respect. The Bulls are the #1 three point shooting team in conference play hitting 38% of their triples. We felt they’d shoot well vs an ECU defense that doesn’t defend the arc well and they did hitting 45% (14 made 3’s). Same situation here as UAB’s defense ranks 262nd nationally (11th in the AAC) defending the 3 point line. In general the Blazers defense leaves a lot to be desired ranking 197th in efficiency. 216th in eFG% allowed, and they give up 75 PPG. They did hold Wichita State to 60 points yesterday but the Shockers were playing their 3rd game in 3 days and UAB had off since the weekend. On top of that, Wichita was not a good offensive team to begin with ranking 13th in the AAC in efficiency. On the other side, South Florida is the best defensive team in the AAC ranking #1 in pretty much every category including defensive efficiency, and eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. They were able to spread out their minutes yesterday as they led ECU by 30 at home point and 9 guys played 10+ minutes. USF had 2 losses in conference play this season and one of those was a down to the wire game @ UAB (Blazers won by 4) despite the fact UAB made 30 FT’s and just 9 for the Bulls. It was their only meeting this season giving USF even more motivation. They continue to be undervalued but just keeping winning and covering (20-7 ATS). We like USF to get another cover on Saturday.

#828 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* South Florida -6.5 over East Carolina, Friday at 1 PM ET - Not only does AAC regular season champ USF have massive motivation here, it’s also a terrible match up for ECU on top of that. The Bulls have had a great season with a 23-6 SU record and 16-2 in AAC play, but they are not guaranteed a spot in the NCAA tourney. In fact, most bracketologists have them out of the Big Dance unless they win this game. That in and of itself isn’t necessarily a reason to make a wager on a team, but we love the match up for the Bulls as well. They are the best defensive team in the AAC ranking #1 in pretty much every category including defensive efficiency, and eFG% allowed, 2 point FG% allowed, and 3 point FG% allowed. The Pirates offensive numbers are not good ranking dead last in the conference in efficiency averaging only 1.00 PPP, dead last in 3 point FG%, and 13th in eFG%. You get where we are going here, ECU will have major problems on offense in this game. In yesterday’s 5 point win over Tulsa, the Pirates were able to shoot 50% (nearly 10% above their season average) vs a defense that ranked near the bottom of the AAC in efficiency and eFG% allowed. That won’t happen today. USF should have plenty of success on offense vs an East Carlina defense that has allowed an average of 81.5 PPG over their last 5. When these teams met for the only time this season @ ECU, the Bulls held the Pirated to 39% from the field and won by 11 points on the road. We see a similar outcome on Friday. South Florida by double digits.

ASA top play on 10* LA Clippers -6.5 at Chicago Bulls, 8 PM ET - The Clippers are coming off an ugly home loss to the T’Wolves on Tuesday night and look to get back into the win column at the Bulls expense. Chicago played last night in Indianapolis making this the second night of a back-to-back for the Bulls. Not only that, but this is their 3rd game in four days and 4th in six days. Chicago is not a deep team to begin with and has the 18th worst Net Rating for their bench. The Bulls bench has the 24th rated EFG% in the NBA at 52.1%. With the added rest the Clippers starters should see extended minutes in this one and have a healthy Paul George and Kawhi Leonard for this contest. The Clippers starters have the 6th best Net Rating differential in the NBA at +4.6. Los Angeles has the 4th best offensive efficiency rating and the 13th best DEFF. In comparison the Bulls rate 18th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in OEFF. The Clippers are 12-10 ATS as a road chalk this season with an average +/- of +7.5PPG. The Bulls are 8-6-1 ATS as a home underdog but they own a negative differential of minus -2.9PPG. The Clippers start their road trip with a double digit win here.

#776 ASA TOP PLAY ON Arizona -8 over USC, Thursday at 3 PM ET - Great line value here with the Wildcats. They were just favored @ USC in the regular season finale by 7.5 and now only laying 8.5 on a neutral. That’s because they lost that game @ USC and in embarrassing fashion 78-65. It was a flat spot for the Wildcats on the road after they had just clinched the Pac 12 title a few days earlier with a 23 point win over UCLA. It showed as Arizona was flat shooting just 39% and hitting only 29% from deep while producing their lowest point total of the entire season. This team was hoping to get another shot at USC and now they get that chance and you can bet Zona is ultra motivated. Not only because of that loss but they are also fighting for a #1 seed in the Big Dance. We like the way USC has been playing over the last few weeks winning 5 of their last 6 games but this is a rough situation for the Trojans. While they have been playing better this is still a team that finished with an 8-12 Pac 12 record and had a negative adjusted efficiency margin in conference play. They shot 50% in their opening round win over Washington yesterday (80-74 final) and they also hit 50% of their shots at home vs Arizona last week. Now they face a motivated Cats team that lead the Pac 12 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and you can bet USC won’t be shooting lights out in this game. Zona ranks in the top 16 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency while USC ranks outside the top 80 in both. The Cats had an average winning margin of +17 points in league play while USC had a dead even PPG margin. 12 of Arizona’s 15 conference wins came by double digits! Again, we like how the Trojans have been trending but we can’t pass on this line value with one of the top teams in the country who will be extremely motivated.

ASA BET ON Chicago Bulls +4 @ Indiana Pacers – 7PM ET - This is a great spot to back the Bulls and fade the Pacers who played last night in Oklahoma City and won as an underdog. The Bulls are 18-15 ATS on the road this season and have won 5 of their last seven road games outright. We like the fact that the Bulls are coming off a blowout home loss in their most recent game on Monday to the Mavericks which should have them focused here. Indiana played last night making this the second of a back-to-back and also their 3rd game in four nights. When playing without rest this season the Pacers have the worst spread record in the NBA at 2-9 ATS with an average loss margin of -8.6PPG. Indiana is also 9-11-1 ATS as a home chalk this season. Both teams have negative point differential since the All-Star break with the Pacers at minus -1.9PPG, the Bulls are minus -3.4PPG but clearly both of those differentials would net a cover in this one. Indiana has some depth concerns with Mathurin out for the season and the road team has covered the spread in both meetings this season. Grab the points.

ASA BET ON ORLANDO MAGIC -7 vs Brooklyn Nets – 7 PM ET - We are on the Magic in this one. Orlando has the best spread record at home as a favorite this season at 13-3 with an average Margin of Victory in those games of +13.4PPG. Overall at home the Magic are 20-9 ATS with an average +/- of +6.7PPG. The Nets on the other hand are 10-20 SU away from home, 11-19 ATS which is the 2nd worst road spread record in the league. When playing on the road, the Nets lose by an average of -6.3PPG. The Magic look to bounce back after 2 straight losses, with the most recent being at home to Indiana. Brooklyn meanwhile is coming off a huge upset road win over the Cavs and should revert back to their losing ways tonight. The home team has covered 5 straight in this series.

#658 ASA TOP PLAY ON Texas -4.5 over Kansas State, Wednesday at 7 PM ET - Texas is the more well rounded team in this match up and our power ratings have the Horns favored by 6.5 in this game so we like the value. Texas is ranked in the top 55 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they hold a huge edge on the offensive end of the court here. They rank 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency and KSU ranks 143rd. The Longhorns rank in the top 55 in both FG% and 3 point FG% while the Cats rank 255th and 297th in those stats. KSU does play high level defense however they just don’t put up enough offense away from home to come up with wins. In fact, they won only 1 road game the entire season in Big 12 play and that was @ West Virginia who was by far the worst team in the conference this season. Their PPG numbers drop by nearly 8 points on the road and they average only 0.96 PPP away from home. Texas had 4 Big 12 road wins and blew a 14 point lead @ Baylor late in the season or they would have had another one. The Horns offensive numbers stay fairly consistent on the road as they average 77 PPG at home and 75 PPG away from home. They also put up a solid 1.063 PPP on the road this season. Not only is Texas the much better offensive team they should get more opportunities on that end of the floor as well. That’s because KSU is a turnover machine and a poor defensive rebounding team. The Cats rank 349th in offensive turnover rate (and Texas is solid at creating turnovers) and they rank 272nd in defensive rebounding percentage (and Texas is a solid offensive rebounding team). Those 2 things should lead to a number of extra possessions for the Longhorns. Should UT need to close this one out late with FT’s they are hitting 77% in conference play, 2nd in the Big 12. These 2 met about a month ago and Texas won by 6, however they led by 12 with under 3:00 minutes remaining in that one. This is a pretty short number for Texas and we’ll lay it.

#671 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* USC -3 over Washington, Wednesday at 3 PM ET - USC has played as well as anyone in the Pac 12 down the stretch. They were just 3-10 in conference play on February 10th and then caught fire and won 5 of their last 7 games with their only 2 losses coming vs Colorado in double OT and vs Washington State by 3 points and the Trojans led both of those games by double digits in the 2nd half. Those 2 teams are rated #2 and #3 in the Pac 12 behind only Arizona who still sits as a top 10 team nationally and a likely #1 or #2 seed in the Big Dance. Speaking of the Wildcats, USC just rolled Arizona by 13 points to close out the regular season. Since mid February, USC is ranked in the top 20 nationally in overall efficiency per Bart Torvik. These 2 just met 11 days ago and USC beat Washington on the road 82-75. The Trojans led that one by 15 points with under 6:00 minutes to go while the Huskies largest lead of the game in that game was just 4 points. UW led that game, their home finale so motivation was high, for just 2 minutes and that’s it. That was despite the Huskies making 5 more 3 pointers than USC so outscoring them by 15 points from beyond the arc. We don’t see anything changing on a neutral court just 11 days after USC dominated Washington on the road. Lay the small number.