Wright State -4

Out in the Horizon league Wright State has begun conference play 6-0. All of their conference wins have been by ten points or less, showcasing an ability to close out games. Thursday marks their fourth road game in five games which has decreased the spread against Wisconsin-Green Bay. Still, expect Wright State’s confidence to win to be the deciding factor in a late push past the number.

At just 1-4 in Big 12 play the TCU Horned Frogs find themselves as double digit favorites Wednesday. The reason why is they’ve been a play or two away in all of their losses this season. In fact all four of their losses were by five points or less. While Iowa State has the team identity and public betting notoriety they’re a huge liability in a down season. Their win in their latest outing over Baylor dips the line just enough here to grab the Horned Frogs. 

In the American conference the only winless team that remains is South Florida. They’ll travel on the road to face an East Carolina that’s one conference win was on the road against South Florida. This is a spot where one can grab the value on East Carolina’s win in South Florida. Expect a better offensive effort from the Bulls and for them to avenge their prior loss to the Pirates.

Parity in the Missouri Valley conference has created an oddsmaker conundrum for Tuesday. After starting conference play at 0-5, Northern Iowa finally broke through and toppled Valparaiso. Drake on the other hand is 5-1 in conference but their one loss was a 17 point drubbing to Valparaiso. With Northern Iowa’s big win over Valparaiso bettors may chase the illusion that they’re a team to back with confidence. Yet with six days rest expect Drake to have the fresher legs and withstand the Panthers. 

After pulling off a narrow ATS victory against Colorado Wednesday, USC will look for another Pac-12 victory against Utah. Utah once was a 10-3 team that looked the role as a dark horse Pac-12 contendor. Unfortunately scheduling has not benefitted them as they’ve lost three straight against the meat of the Pac-12 in Arizona, ASU, and UCLA. Although USC has been turnover prone and susceptible defensively they’ve grown accustomed to playing in the Sunday night spot on a weekly basis. Grab the value on the Trojans.

Sunday, Davidson travels to take on Fordham in the Bronx. Fordham’s a team that has been an under the radar reliable conference ATS team in recent years. Yet, they’re 1-3 in conference play and are coming off two steep consecutive losses. Davidson on the other hand has rebounded from a 4-6 start to win four of their last five. Grab them to continue their higher level of play on the road against Fordham.

A team that keeps losing in the WCC is Portland. They’re winless in conference and just lost by fifty points at Gonzaga. Pacific on the other hand has rebounded from a subpar non-conference performance to go 3-2 in conference. Yet they’re venturing on the road for the first time in nine days. Still this is a baited home dog spread as Pacific’s 8-10 record offers a peculiar spot for a favorite. Grab it as Portland’s woes continue.

In college hoops ASU continues to be a hot bed to go against ATS for several reasons, but primarily based on their schedule. After opening up conference play with three straight road games the Sun Devils dropped their first home game to Oregon on Thursday. Saturday’s opponent is one in Oregon State that also lost but on the road Thursday to Arizona. The angle that ASU is in need of a win and is facing a team continuing road travels is one offered by oddsmakers. Yet even though ASU has the quick spurt capabilities this is too many points to bypass. Grab the Beavers.

Arizona State returns home tonight to face Oregon after a three-game road stretch to start the Pac-12. Most coaches would have been happy with the results of the stretch. ASU fought tough against 17th ranked Arizona, played Colorado to overtime, and held off Utah. Yet, tonight’s point spread is more indicative of a returning home tilted line as well as ASU’s strong ATS record (10-2). The fact of the matter is ASU lacks size and does not defend for forty minutes. Grab the value on Oregon. 

At 4-12 UNC Wilmington has had an extreme free fall from their tournament appearance two years ago. Tonight they’ll take on conference opponent Elon whom has won four of their last five. Yet I see value on UNC Wilmington who still has prime talent at several positions. The Seahawks looked extremely flat in their latest matchup allowing 96 points in a twenty point loss to Delaware. That’s created value on the Seahawks tonight as they conclude a conference three-game road trip. Grab the Seahawks.

Oddsmakers have dangled out a large point spread Wednesday on the Trojans. The fact of the matter is their improper top ten ranking to start the season made it difficult  for oddsmakers to adjust their number. At 11-6 they’re the only team not in the Pac-12 outside of ASU that has a positive mark ATS at 10-7. Colorado is coming off home upsets against both Arizona State and Arizona which further elevates their inflation. They also played their latest game against Arizona mid-day Saturday PST compared to USC’s Sunday evening buzzer beat loss to Stanford. Grab the value on the underachieving but talented Trojans.

Dropping from a top five team to unranked has occurred for Texas A&M. Issues diagnosed pre-season with Texas A&M’s lack of a point guard have been a main downgrade to their 0-3 SEC start. Opposite the Kentucky Wildcats have not been the same caliber of a typical Coach Calipari. That’s showcased by oddsmakers offering low numbers against Louisville (-4.5) and Virginia Tech (-6.5). Yet there is value to be had here off the Aggies slide and last year’s blowout 100-58 Kentucky victory over A&M. In the victory Kentucky did not ease off the gas as they hunted to score 100 points. An added ATS indicator for the Aggies is this is the first collegiate game of conference play with class back in session from the holidays. Grab the Aggies.

Signs of ASU having glaring weaknesses were evident before conference play began. Under sized and offensive droughts plagued them in come back wins over Vanderbilt, Longwood, and others. Starting off the Pac-12 0-2 is a cause of those issues but also a tough conference schedule out of the gate. Both their games were on the road as is tonight’s matchup against Utah. That’s where the value lies ATS. Look for ASU to show a concerted effort to avoid falling to 0-3 in the Pac-12.

Continued credit for being a former dominant conference team is what oddsmakers have granted Northern Iowa. The Panthers have now lost four straight after starting the season 8-3. The Missouri Valley has increased their offensive production and been able to bypass the Panthers typical strong defense. After consecutive road games this is a spot oddsmakers have baited bettors to grab the home Panthers. Instead look for further rust from Northern Iowa and for Loyola-Chicago to be the aggressors as they’ve lost three of four.

Samford finds themselves in an unordinary spot as a favorite this season. Minus key contributors Wyatt Walker and Christen Cunningham Samford has started the season 5-10. Yet, they both may play today which would be a small conference oddsmaker miss in the Southern conference. Even if both fail to return expect Samford to bypass Western Carolina’s methodical slow pace offense. Grab Samford.

Saturday there is value in the Ohio Valley conference as Jacksonville State travels to take on Belmont. Here the value lies with Jacksonville State’s second consecutive road game. In their prior road game the Gamecocks lost by seven to a lowly 6-8 Tennessee State team. Yet, Belmont should bring a higher level of energy from the Gamecocks. Grab the road value.

Just one team in the Pac-12 has a losing record below .500. That is Stanford which is just 6-8 overall and has poor losses on their resume to teams such as Portland State, Eastern Washington, and Long Beach State. They’ll face a UCLA team tonight that’s gaining their confidence. After a neutral site victory over Kentucky, UCLA has started off Pac-12 play 2-0. Yet, expect Stanford to show some strides in this one as they lost by just three points in their latest matchup against California.

The Wofford Terriers host their first home game in Southern Conference play against VMI. VMI is coming off a thirty point loss in which they allowed sixteen three pointers to Furman. Fletcher Magee of Wofford figures to be in for a great evening as one of the country’s premier three-point shooters. Yet, be leery of another Wofford offensive lapse to detriment this large spread. In their latest matchup against UNC Greensboro they scored just twenty second half points, including a stretch of twelve minutes with just seven points. Grab the underdog here. 

Four of five losses by Saint Joseph’s has dropped their season record below .500 at 5-7. Today they’ll host a VCU team that is 9-5. All five of the Rams losses were to reputable teams in Texas, Michigan, Virginia, Marquette, and Seton Hall. That’s created value for Saint Josephs tonight on their home floor. Grab the Hawks.

We’ll grab the value on the College of Charleston for Tuesday in college hoops. This has been a competitive series over the last couple of years with Charleston sweeping last year’s matchup. Charleston’s pace of play seemingly hurts them on a big number ATS. Yet they’re a team that you can feel comfortable clinching a spread with late free throws. Grab Charleston.

Post holiday break two teams looking for a boost in-conference will be the Dons and Pilots. Both have six losses with inconsistent offense to match subpar defense. Yet the Dons have a core starting five that is starting to show growth. While many will remember Portland’s national TV game against UNC, they’ve not shown the team chemistry needed. Grab the road value on the Dons.

Wofford ended their non-conference play with a big win over fifth ranked North Carolina. It was a game they had supreme offensive efficiency and also their second win over an ACC opponent. Saturday they’ll step into conference play against UNC Greensboro. Look for Wofford to shake off the rust of last year’s 19 point loss at UNCG and grab the cover.

The first conference top twenty-five game is slated between Creighton and Seton Hall. Can Seton Hall score at the same level as Creighton? That will be a challenge as depth-wise the BlueJays have the upper hand. From an ATS perspective the line is a bit lower due to Creighton’s full eight days of rest versus Seton Hall’s five. Still, look for the Pirates to take advantage of home-court and pull off the ATS cover. 

We’ll grab the value on Cal Poly for Thursday. UT-Arlington has been a darling the last three years against big schools, including this year with wins over BYU and nearly defeating Creighton. With Cal Poly on the second leg of their Texas road trip, one may expect a clunker outing here. After all they did not showcase enough scoring ability against an SMU team that had played in consecutive games. Yet, grab the value here on Cal Poly.

Perhaps no team has shown more vulnerability at finishing teams off than Tennessee. Games against Lipscomb, Villanova, and their recent matchup against UNC they had numerous opportunities to stretch the lead to put away their opponent. Furman is a turnover prone team that lacks size to compete with the Vols but expect Tennessee to showcase rust from their loss to UNC. Grab Furman. 

A year ago one of the more popular attractors came with a matchup of East Tennessee State and Detroit. The number moved up significantly towards the Bucs before tip-off and proved to be correct in a big way. Yet, I see value with this rematch as Detroit is coming off a severe blowout loss to Michigan, and East Tennessee State nearly upset Xavier. Grab Detroit here as East Tennessee State’s defense and offensive efficiency isn’t nearly the same as a year ago. 

Based on USC’s lackadaisical play there is no reason to see them as double-digit favorites against UC Santa Barbara. UCSB has improved offense to match their typical strong half court defense. Yet, USC being 0-3 against solid competition has given them value tonight as well as UCSB’s short travel to LA. Look for their offense to outrun UCSB Sunday night just enough for the cover. 

Colorado State hopes they can stay undefeated at home as they take on Texas State.  A home court they protected in a solid win over Pac-12 school Colorado. With the Rams coming off consecutive blowout road defeats against Arkansas and Oregon, this would seem like a spot for a team to get their confidence back. Especially considering Texas State lost by four points on the road in their latest game to Abilene Christian. Instead look for Texas State to give the Rams a handful and a cover.

Tennessee’s lone loss this season was in a game they dominated for a large stretch against Villanova. UNC on the other hand has looked vulnerable especially against athletic teams such as the Vols. Yet this is where the Tar Heels can use their veteran experience as did Villanova stay calm during Tennessee’s runs.

Cincinnati travels to Los Angeles to take on a UCLA Bruins team that is 5-0 at home. Two losses to Xavier and Florida have pushed the Bearcats on the brink of falling outside of the top twenty five. In both losses the Bearcats failed to sustain the offense to keep up with their opponents. That figures to be an issue against UCLA yet look for the Bearcats to take advantage of their depth and skillset advantage. Grab the Bearcats.

Southern Utah takes on a dynamic Central Michigan team from an offensive and scoring standpoint. While Southern Utah does not have the exposure or top-tier schedule they’re also capable of playing a fast-paced style. Look for Southern Utah to answer the bell and what should be an entertaining game. Grab the points here. 

A formidable opponent for the Wisconsin Badgers lies with Western Kentucky tonight. The Hilltoppers run just an eight man rotation but have key transfers in Lamonte Bearden (Buffalo) and Dwight Coleby (Ole Miss/Kansas) at their disposal. In their first road game of the season the Hilltoppers stumbled in a five point loss to Ohio. That’s created an interesting line tonight in the same range against a Wisconsin team that is lacking confidence with six losses against power five schools. Grab the value here on Western Kentucky.

Saturday, there is value to be had on the Providence Friars as they take on UMass. UMass is struggling this year at just 4-5, but should be ready for their best effort in this in-state matchup. For the Friars they’re coming off a close call against Brown on Wednesday. Down twelve points at halftime they needed a late surge to win in OT. That’s created value for today. Grab the Friars.

The Vols have an in-state matchup against small school Lipscomb Saturday. At 6-1 the lone loss by the Vols were to the Villanova Wildcats. In that loss they blew a double-digit lead, which puts at the forefront not taken an opponent lightly. Look for Tennessee to handle Lipscomb and continue to rise up in the polls.

Thursday, Zack will look for the value on Eastern Washington. The Eagles are just 3-5 and have been lackluster as all five of their losses have been by double-digits, including a 19 point loss to Seattle in their last game. They’ll face a San Francisco team that narrowly avoided a three-game losing streak with a close home win over Central Arkansas. With Eastern Washington playing in their third straight road game ATS value is on their side. Grab the Eagles here.  

Oddsmakers are not fooled by the Bradley Braves whom have started the season 7-1. They’ve battled in competitive games all season against subpar competition. San Diego State on the other hand has provided a much tougher schedule and should have the right mindset in this Missouri Valley-Mountain West challenge. A key here is San Diego State is not afraid to play a slow pace half court game. They’ll have the proper tactics to offset tempo with winning the turnover and free throw battle. Grab SD State.

One typically won’t see a team below .500 as a sizable road favorite. Yet that’s the case for the Stanford Cardinal as they take on Long Beach State. At 4-5 Stanford has not looked like a Pac-12 team with losses to Portland State and Eastern Washington. Yet they found a bit of confidence against Montana and should expose a poor defensive 49ers team. Grab Stanford.

A true barometer test lies with Seton Hall Sunday as they take on Louisville. Louisville has the talent from Rick Pitino’s tenure but showed glaring weaknesses in a loss to Purdue. The veteran laden Pirates need to put their foot on the gas early to keep the confidence away from the Cardinal. Look for that to happen and for the Pirates to hold off a late flurry from the Cardinal.

We’ll take the points on Samford today against Jacksonville State. Jacksonville State has opened up the season 5-2 with both losses within reach against Buffalo and Mississippi State. They also blew out Richmond and defeated a sound Chattanooga team. Meanwhile Samford has had all types of issues as they deal with a new lineup that hasn’t meshed yet. Still, this is too many points to pass up. Grab Samford. 

Friday the Oregon Ducks saw their non-conference home win streak of forty games plus come to an end against Boise State. Tonight a similar occurrence is possible as SMU hopes to defend their 27 game win streak against USC. Thus far USC has not looked sharp against two formidable opponents. They were blown out by Texas A&M and struggled to defeat Vanderbilt in an overtime game. Look for USC to play much sharper than they’ve shown and cover an improper number. 

Mercer has been a tough team to figure out. They’re as loaded as any non power conference team as far as depth and returning talent. For whatever reason that has not resulted in success this season. While Memphis does not have a team that likely will finish above sixteen wins they do have the athleticism to take advantage of a shaky Mercer team. Grab Memphis.

The Tar Heels offensive camaraderie has not been top notch, even in wins. That’ll be put to the test Friday against a solid scoring Davidson team. In order for the Tar Heels to get an upper hand tonight ATS look for Roy Williams to employ a similar strategy utilized in conference play the past two seasons. With the offense lagging they have the ability to step it up defensively. That’ll be the difference ATS tonight. Grab UNC.

Tonight in college basketball both East Carolina and UNC-Wilmington will aim to get back in the win column. This is a rematch from last year when UNC-Wilmington was heavily favored by thirteen points against the Pirates. An outcome that featured a backdoor conclusion for the Pirates. Offered tonight is a much smaller line as the Pirates have the upper hand with key upperclassmen. Look for the Pirates to cover again.

For years Michigan State was a team that would be incorrectly ranked and sputter out of the top twenty-five. Their opponent in Notre Dame has been the exact opposite over the last five years. They’re usually unranked but find their way into the top twenty five. This year is different for both programs as they’re each in the top five. The Irish have made a living off of playing up to the level of their opponents in big matchups. Tonight will be a different story as the Spartans can play to an even higher level than showcased against UNC.

The records of Charlotte (3-2) and Davidson (2-2) do not offer a proper early season assessment. The 49ers three wins were against subpar schools in Presbyterian, High Point, and D-3 school Methodist. Meanwhile Davidson’s losses were to 6-0 Nevada and an improving Appalachian State team. Oddsmakers are not treating this as an away game for Davidson and shouldn’t. Twenty-one miles separate both school campuses and Davidson is in need of ending their two-game skid. Still, side with Charlotte who have three experienced upperclassmen in their starting five. 

This early in the college basketball season there are obvious incorrect pre-season rankings. USC has the nucleus to be a top ten team but are facing a Texas A&M team playing at a higher level and with better team camaraderie. This is the case of rankings dictating a point spread. Grab the Aggies to continue to climb ATS.

Today’s CBB lineup is littered with dynamic matchups. In all likelihood the game of the day will be North Carolina and Michigan State. The past two years the prime ‘eye’ rise of the Tar Heels has been justified. A strong core of holdover talent remains from their national title. Yet, Michigan State’s buildup for this season has been pieced together over the course of two recruiting classes by Tom Izzo. Grab the youth of the Spartans to overtake the veteran Tar Heels.

Anytime there is a battle between the Philadelphia schools you can expect a great game. Temple has jumped out to a 3-0 start with quality wins over Old Dominion, Auburn, and Clemson. Those are radar ATS attention wins. LaSalle on the other hand has lost three straight while they try to intermix a new lineup. Still they have the best player on the floor in senior BJ Johnson. He’ll be the catalyst to get LaSalle the ATS edge. Grab LaSalle.

Wright State looks to get use their home court edge to get back over .500. Looking at their schedule one would see that they’ve had a tough time with mid-level division one schools. They’ve lost to Loyola-Illinois, Miami-Ohio, and Murray State while gaining three easy wins over lower level division one schools. Look for that to change here against Fairfield. 

ASU is off to a 4-0 start with Bobby Hurley’s recruits showcasing their talents. They’re playing awfully similar to his days at Buffalo and have an intermixed strong upper class. In all four of their games this season they’ve scored over 90 points, including two strong blowouts over UC Irvine and San Diego State. Yet, look for Kansas State to defend ASU’s perimeter and off the ball offensive attack. Grab Kansas State. 

Today in Las Vegas another day of tournament action proceeds as George Washington takes on Xavier in the Orleans Arena. Xavier is off to an electric start posting a 4-0 record. On the other hand George Washington has struggled with a twenty point loss to Florida State and a two point loss to Rider in their latest game. Although Xavier’s a juggernaut offensively expect one offensive lull to give GW the cover. Grab George Washington.

An unranked Virginia team is not getting proper attention in the polls or ATS. Today they’ll take on a Vanderbilt team that nearly pulled off an upset over USC. They showed an ability to play the pace offensively USC displays on a nightly basis but fell short in overtime. I’m leery of the contrast of pace of play affecting Vanderbilt today. Virginia doesn’t have the same defensive half-court levels of years past but still runs the same Tony Bennett system. It’ll disrupt the Commodores. Grab Virginia.

Over the past couple of seasons SMU has been an ATS juggernaut in non-conference play. They’ll take on a Northern Iowa team that has been untested to this point similar to their own schedule. SMU’s strength comes from a three-guard experienced tandem in Ben Emelogu, Jerry Foster, and electric scorer Shake Milton. Yet, look for Northern Iowa to show their worth in this matchup. Grab UNI.

Eastern Washington +7.5

Eastern Washington’s early season schedule has not been easy. They head into today’s matchup against Georgia State off of three straight games against Washington, Stanford, and UNLV. A blowout loss to UNLV has devalued them in today’s early MGM mid-afternoon game. Look for Eastern Washington to find better offensive execution today and cover the seven and a half.

One of the night cap college hoops games today involves a neutral site tournament game between Mercer and Colorado. Both teams are off to solid starts with Mercer at 4-1 and Colorado 4-0. With each team displaying dominant holdover starters the advantage lies in one key area. Colorado’s leading scorer is a high volume shooting point guard freshman in McKinley Wright. He’s averaging 16 points per game paired with backcourt Missouri transfer Namon Wright. Look for Mercer’s team balance to pose problems for Colorado’s new backcourt. Grab Mercer. 

Iona is just 1-2 on the season while Northern Kentucky has started off strong at 3-0. Northern Kentucky’s experience is a key factor here but Iona has showed some positive strides. Against Syracuse they erased a double digit deficit to tie in the second half before Syracuse pulled away. That experience will pay off here against Northern Kentucky. Grab the Gaels. 

A close victory against Ball State followed by a loss to Host has devalued Dayton for Friday. They’ll face an Ohio team that played a solid game in a five point loss to Clemson. Yet this will be the game that Ohio misses team leader Jason Carter the most. Look for Dayton to shoot the three ball much better tonight and create turnovers Ohio. 

Although the Terrapins did lose Melo Trimble, they retained four of five starters going into this season. Justin Jackson and Kevin Huerter played huge roles last season as freshman and have showcased solid development into their sophomore seasons. Butler on the other hand is a bit under the radar in a loaded Big East. Look for their under sized lineup to give problems to Maryland. Grab Butler.

A true shocker to start the season is to see Pittsburgh 0-2. They lost to Navy to start the season and also a close contest against Montana. That presents value heading into tonight’s game against UCSB. Look for Pittsburgh to neutralize UCSB’s prime talent in Gabe Vincent and correct early season issues on the defensive end of the floor. Grab Pittsburgh. 

Monday oddsmakers have set a steep line as Iowa State hosts UW-Milwaukee. After being blown out by fifteen points to Missouri, this is supposed to be a spot for Iowa State to get back on track. After all UW-Milwaukee is under a new Coach and had severe issues last season against fast paced teams. Yet Iowa State’s volume shooting should ignite a Milwaukee team to get out in transition. Grab Milwaukee. 

Monday, an in-state matchup lies with Vanderbilt against Belmont. Oddsmakers have put their faith into the home team here poised for an upset. Yet, look for Vanderbilt to wear down Belmont’s aggressive three-point shooting by attacking the hoop and winning the turnover battle. Grab Vanderbilt.

The most interesting spread of the day lies with LaSalle against Penn. We’ve seen LaSalle showcase themselves as a talented team in the A-10. They’ve done so with prime offense but have dipped with their on-guard defensive skills. Pennsylvania’s strict disciplined offense should be able to capitalize early in the season against an untrustworthy LaSalle half court defense.

Over the last several years Washington has had it’s issues early in the season against smaller schools. In fact in non-conference play they’ve lost against Oakland, Yale, Stony Brook, and UC Irvine each of the last four years. After struggling to defeat Belmont to start the season one may expect rust in a quick turn around matchup. Yet, look for a new and refreshed team effort led by former Syracuse assistant Mike Hopkins. 

California will look to avoid the double-whammy in in-state losses against lower level California division one schools. In their first game of the season they lost 74-66 to Cal Riverside. While California is likely to come out with a lead and much more aggression against Cal Poly, the worry here is in the second half. Grab Cal Poly plus the points.

For Zack’s second college basketball release we find value with Youngstown State against Kent State. Kent State was one of the hottest teams down the stretch of last season from a non power five conference. They used the momentum to win the MAC conference tournament and were led by departing graduate Jimmy Hall. He’ll be a big loss against a Youngstown State team that is much more competitive than their subpar record of 2016-2017 suggests. Grab Youngstown State. 

Gonzaga -6.5

The cinderella story of South Carolina featured perfect match ups for them. They ran through guard heavy teams before facing an Elite 8 SEC conference opponent in Florida. The Zags will be a different story. They can offset any defensive adjustment South Carolina may have in-game with a balanced inside-outside attack. They also have the ability to play at a fast or slow pace tempo. That'll be a challenge for a South Carolina team that has exceeded their regular season offensive and defensive standards. Grab the Zags to head to the title game.

The SEC has three of the six remaining teams left in the tournament, with perennial power Kentucky as the mainstay. That's what was expected from the ACC which suffered a string of losses to leave only North Carolina left. This North Carolina team may not have as high a ceiling on a game to game basis as last year's team but it has bought in defensively. They'll show the difference from allowing 103 points earlier this season in a loss to Kentucky. Grab North Carolina.

During the regular season perhaps no team was looked down upon in the top fifteen as much as Baylor. Discounted wins has led to them playing with a chip on their shoulder. South Carolina on the other hand stormed up the charts with two solid tournament wins and has the fixture Coach people know in Frank Martin. After a tight win against USC, buyers may be quick to jump on the first weekend's darling in South Carolina. Yet, look for South Carolina's recent flirt of excelled fast pace play to burn them unexpectedly Friday. Grab Baylor. 

An adjusted line comes in on the Michigan Wolverines against the Oregon Ducks. Will the time off bode to the advantage of the Wolverines? In a tournament format oddsmakers are leaning that way. Here though I'll gravitate towards the experience of the Ducks to topple a strong sweet sixteen run by the Wolverines. Grab the Ducks.

Florida State 

In round one we saw the Musketeers put forth the type of wins that led to their success in the regular season. One strong run swung a close game against Maryland. Facing Florida State should be much different. Leonard Hamilton uses a deep rotation with athletes that can equally defend/score. Grab Florida State to showcase how close to the bubble Xavier truly was.

Northern Kentucky +20

Two takes on this game. One being the obvious small state school versus the mecca in Kentucky. This is the classic round one baited favorite matchup. In fact we even have a first round taste of the Horizon (Green Bay) vs the SEC (Texas A&M) in round one last year. A&M cruised against a formidable Green Bay team. Yet, I believe this Northern Kentucky is as dangerous as a double digit loss team in this tourney. Grab the Norse.

Marquette-Pick

Any time you have a team playing in their home state in the tournament it is difficult to evaluate. South Carolina has that today with the game being played in Greensville. Yet, this is where Marquette's difficulties on the road in the tough Big East should boost their value. They went 3-6 on the road with six of their overall twelve losses decided by six points or less. In a first round where many could argue seedings this is not the case. Marquette will play and hold the advantage as a true seven seed over South Carolina the ten seed.

Perhaps no first round team faces an opponent they would not want more than Virginia Tech. Wisconsin's sound balance and ability to play any style of tempo is a considerable edge factor. Also Virginia Tech exuded as much effort as any team to round out the regular season strong to get in the tournament. Wisconsin will play to the level and keep their label as wrongly seeded. Grab Wisconsin.

Earlier before the season I discussed change over in college hoops amongst the non power schools. The Atlantic 10 has seen a shift a step back in play while out west the WCC is growing. That'll be a factor today against little known St. Mary's against yearly tournament strong force VCU. Keep in mind Shaka Smart's last VCU recruits will step on the court one last time, after three consecutive strong tournaments. Grab the value here on St. Mary's.

Getting in the tournament is not the accomplishment the Wildcats were looking for. They'll put together a strong effort against a Vanderbilt team that peaked towards the end of the season. Facing the Wildcats tough discipline style on both ends of the floor is not a skill set of the SEC. Grab the Wildcats.

The Gators strength defensively should be enough to get past a solid ETSU team. ETSU has all the danger elements you look for in an opening round upset. Yet, defensively they are prone to giving up long stretches of baskets. Added to the mix with Coach McCall's former presence in the SoCo conference, and you can expect the Gators to pull away in this one.

Over recent years Fresno State has been a popular team in the NIT/NCAA Tournament. Facing an up and coming TCU team would seem to bode for the heavy underdogs. Yet, Jamie Dixon is one of the best coaches at taking away team's strengths offensively. Look for the Bulldogs to be overwhelmed on the road.

Tonight we'll grab value on Georgia Tech against Indiana. Indiana's main downfall all season was the inability to play up to the level of subpar opponents. That theme should re-occur tonight against a Georgia Tech team that grew ahead of schedule under Josh Pastner. Look for the Yellow Jackets to gain the cover.

We'll grab the championship value here on the Irish. Both the Blue Devils and Irish have eight losses with strength of schedule heavily favored towards Duke's side. Compound the Blue Devils consecutive wins as underdogs against Louisville and UNC and you may think the Blue Devils are peaking. Instead I believe their coaching executed terrific game plans that were enough to come back from steep deficits. Against the veteran Irish look for Notre Dame to exploit the advantages Louisville and UNC had but were unable to finish. Grab the Irish.

It's a quick turn around game for the Rams against Davidson. As they faced each other just six days ago in a close overtime affair. In tournaments teams can get hot and rise to the occasion and that appears to be the leap that Davidson is taking. Yet, grab the Rams to dig in defensively and thwart the rising offense of Davidson.

In the Atlantic Ten's night cap we'll side with a George Washington team that has lost two prior match ups this season against Richmond. On a neutral site look for George Washington's experience to lend the upper hand ATS, as they showcased some new wrinkles offensively in their last matchup against Richmond.

A neutral site opening line of 6.5 was nearly identical to the opening line of Virginia Tech vs Florida State's regular season matchup (5.5). In both instances the number rose quickly on Florida State's side. For the Hokies, no other top ACC team gives them as much problems as Florida State. Their length and athleticism counter a Hokies roster that feeds off of the ability to slash and out hustle opponents. Although the Hokies are a dangerous team this is the wrong matchup for them. Grab Florida State.

This will be the third matchup between the Cavaliers and Panthers. Each team has won a game thus far. While the Panthers eked out a win Tuesday, they did so with a subpar offensive effort. Look for the Cavaliers strong defense to keep the Panthers at bay and grab the cover in Brooklyn.

After upsetting Oakland and Cleveland State, Youngstown State looks poised for another upset. After all they defeated Northern Kentucky just a few weeks ago on their home floor. Yet, I believe Northern Kentucky has the value here. They under achieved all season and now sense the opportunity to land an at large bid. Grab Northern Kentucky.

Seeing a small number for a team that is 5-24 is not supposed to happen. Yet, oddsmakers have adjusted on Tulane whom have showed a better spirited effort at the tail end of the season. Tulsa's 8-9 overall conference record is a bit misleading as they've won just two of their last nine games. Grab Tulane.

Earlier in conference play the Bearcats dominated the Huskies on a steep mid-teen number. The Huskies were able to sneak inside of that thanks in large part to a twenty point lead the Bearcats held. To end the regular season look for UConn to show a spirited effort. Seniors Amidah Brimah and Rodney Purvis will show some grit to end their Huskies career on a positive note. Grab the Huskies

Neither Boston College or Clemson has boded well in the ACC, but the results are misleading. Clemson's lost six ACC games by close decisions which could have put them in contention for March Madness. While Boston College has played better as of late they seem to be worn down in second halves. Grab Clemson

The battle in Florida today takes place in the ACC. Earlier this year Florida State routed Miami on their home floor with a dominating second half. While many folks have Florida State dubbed as the most dangerous team of the tournament, they've not playing basketball capable of fitting that mold. Miami's sound defense will not be exposed to the tune of 75 points as in the last matchup.

Oddsmakers continue to over adjust on Central Michigan. The flair of having a potent attack caught the attention of the media early on the season with Central Michigan. Yet, MAC conference opponents have caught up to the attack. Earlier in conference play Western Michigan blew a sizable lead that Central Michigan showcased their last true full explosive offensive effort. Grab Western Michigan to not take their foot off the gas tonight.

In the first round of conference tournaments you're going to get poor match ups. The Horizon league features two as we'll tackle one between Milwaukee and Detroit Friday. This is a matchup that Detroit defeated Milwaukee less than a week ago on the road. The quick turn around may figure to bode to a Milwaukee team that is trying to avoid losing a tenth straight game to end the season. Grab the value on the slight favorite in Detroit.

Western Carolina takes on Wofford in the first round of the southern conference. Wofford is one of those teams that gave a strong second half effort to a season that looked like it was spiraling to bottom tier status of the Southern Conference. While Western Carolina has not enjoyed a solid season they're starting to see the fruits of a young team starting to play together at the end of the season. Grab Western Carolina today.

The vulnerability of the Bearcats has lurked recently after losing two of their last five games. On the other hand Houston has won seven of their last eight games. With the Bearcats offense struggling this would seem like a high number against a very efficient Cougars offense. Yet, look for the Bearcats to use their physical presence to stymie the Cougars in a tough travel game from Texas to Ohio. Keep in mind the Cougars traveled to Memphis Sunday.

The Pirates post-season aspirations are in danger with a poor effort tonight against Georgetown. These two also played an overtime affair on February 4th. In fact, all five of the Pirates February wins have been by seven points or less. Tonight though look for a better all around effort to stray from the Pirates February pattern of close wins.

George Mason +3.5

George Washington comes into Sunday as slight favorites after winning three of their last four. They'll take on a George Mason team they defeated by nineteen points on the road earlier in conference play. While the upward momentum seems to be there for a George Washington veteran team, I'll take the points of a younger George Mason team looking to avoid a three game skid.

A week ago it appeared that Furman could be the favorites to win the Southern Conference. Consecutive losses by double-digits have adjusted views and boosted Saturday's point spread value against Wofford. Wofford is a team growing in confidence and already has defeated Furman at home this season. Look for the underdog to spoil the 'revenge' factor as Furman looks to avoid their first three-game losing streak in their regular season finale. 

Illinois Chicago +8.5

Northern Kentucky will look to continue momentum off a solid series sweeping win over Wright State. They'll take on a UIC team that's lost seven of ten games, one which included a seventeen point home loss to Northern Kentucky. Yet, this is a spot where you can look for Northern Kentucky to be vulnerable. They'll face conference leader Valparaiso on Sunday in their regular season finale before the Horizon conference tournament begins. Grab the value on UIC Friday.

Today figures to be a tricky spot for the home Creighton Blue Jays. They're coming off a convincing win against Georgetown, yet receiving the same favored number against Providence. The Friars have two consecutive 'revenge' wins against Xavier and Butler, both whom they lost to by substantial amounts earlier this season. Tonight, grab Creighton to end that momentum and surge past the Friars in similar fashion to their away win in Providence.

At the end of the season, sometimes you can gain ATS value on future building teams. Tonight I see that as the case with the Demon Deacons who have shown bright spots but were perhaps a bit to young in the rugged ACC. Pittsburgh on the other hand is a veteran team filled with five starters over the age of 21, with four over the age of 23. After their best win of the season against Florida State, this is a letdown spot as their graduates start to envision their overseas careers.

Two teams in the ACC that have received opposite oddsmaker attention have been Clemson and Virginia Tech. After the Hokies lost Chris Clarke for the season on February 12th, oddsmakers over compensated which resulted in three straight easy covers for the Hokies. Yet, the Hokies return back home tonight a tired team having been on the road six of their last eight games. Grab Clemson to avenge an 82-81 loss to the Hokies from January 22nd.