10* NY Giants (6:00 ET): We’ve yet to see the Giants’ starters in the preseason, but that will change Sunday against the Patriots. HC Joe Judge has said the first team will play a “minimum” of one half today. That includes QB Daniel Jones. The Giants have yet to win in this preseason, they’ve lost 12-7 to the Jets and 17-13 to the Browns. No team wants to go winless, even if it is “only” preseason. I’ll take the points. 

The big story in New England is the QB battle between rookie Mac Jones and incumbent Cam Newton. Newton was the Week 1 starter last year, but never seemed comfortable with his new team. It doesn’t help that Newton missed multiple days of practice this week, not for a violation of team rules, but over what has been called a COVID-19 protocol “misunderstanding.” Jones has yet to throw a TD pass. 

I know Newton and Jones will be “pushing” one another here and that the Patriots won 35-0 last week. But that was a fortuitous situation where Eagles’ QB Jalen Hurts was a late scratch. The fact that the Giants are playing starters here tells me they are making this their “dress rehearsal” and will be a bit more motivated than usual. The Giants’ defense has been good in the first two games. They’ve beaten the Patriots “when it matters most” (two Super Bowls) and can beat them when it matters least. Take the points. 10* NY Giants

10* Detroit (7:00 ET): The Lions are 0-2 in the preseason with losses to Pittsburgh (26-20) and Buffalo (16-15). Head coach Dan Campbell is not expected to have a strong first year on the job as the Lions’ projected regular season win total of 4.5 is the second lowest in the league (only Houston is lower). So I expect him to “play to win” Friday in an effort to create SOME kind of spark for when the games start to matter. Almost all of the Lions scoring during the preseason has come in the fourth quarter, so Campbell has shown he’s not one to “roll over.: I look for a better start tonight at home and will take the points. 

Indianapolis has won both of its preseason games. But those two wins have been by a total of five points and both required fourth quarter comebacks. They were down 15-3 to the Panthers in the opener, but a late TD + 2pt conversion followed by a FG in the closing seconds gave them a 21-18 win. Last week, the Colts failed to get in the end zone but won 12-10 in Minnesota after another late FG in the fourth quarter. Carson Wentz (injured) is obviously not playing, which leaves the QB duties to Jacob Eason and Sam Ehlinger, two former college standouts that aren’t expected to do much in the pros. The Colts haven’t run the ball in either game (3.0 YPC). 

David Blough and Tim Boyle are the QBs for Detroit. I realize that’s a very unassuming sounding duo, but they’ve done well so far when facing backups and that’s likely what they’ll see here. The Lions defense was under siege against a motivated group of Pittsburgh QBs last week. It won’t be like that again in the final preseason game. I believe Campbell is really going to want to win for the first time as Lions head coach. The home dog is a strong value. 10* Detroit

10* New Orleans (8:00 ET): The Urban Meyer era didn’t exactly get off to a great start for Jacksonville as they lost the first preseason game 23-13 at home to Cleveland. They’d been bet from underdogs to the role of favorite, so a lot of bettors (myself included) took a bath on that one. We did see the pro debut of #1 overall DC Trevor Lawrence and things didn’t go all that well for the heavily touted rookie. He was sacked twice and fumbled. It seems as if we’re likely to see more of backup Gardner Minshew III tonight (Lawrence will also play), but I don’t like the Jaguars chances here.

The Saints have some work to do after a sloppy first preseason game. They turned it over six times in a 17-14 loss at Baltimore. The Ravens have an incredible preseason record under John Harbaugh, but you have to figure the Saints would have beaten them if not for all those TO’s. Sean Payton is still trying to figure out who will be the heir apparent to Drew Brees (retired), Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill. It looks like Winston will get the start tonight, but even with backups I’m confident Hill can get the job done.

The Saints outgained the Ravens last week 366-309. Behind Winston and Hill is Ian Book and the rookie out of Notre Dame did really well in “mop up” duty the first game. He completed 9 of 16 passes for 196 yards. Jacksonville’s defense is still a work in progress as is the whole team, coming off a 1-15 campaign. At home on Monday night, look for the Saints to get the job done. 10* New Orleans

8* Las Vegas (10:00 ET): The Rams didn’t play their starters last week nor will we see them here. HC Sean McVay has announced they will be given the entire preseason off. That’s a good way to keep your team healthy, but it doesn’t make for a profitable August. The Rams lack depth due to trading away several draft picks the last few years. They are up against it Saturday night and I’m going to lay the points. 

Jon Gruden is 8-1 ATS in the preseason since returning to the Raiders. Unlike McVay, he takes these preseason games rather seriously. Last week, the Silver and Black ran over Seattle in a 20-7 win and that was without QB Derek Carr. The Raiders outgained the Seahawks by nearly a 2:1 margin and had a 26-9 edge in first downs. 

These teams have been holding joint practice this week and the reports are the Raiders have looked good. The Rams lost 13-6 to the Chargers last week. The Raiders defense played really well last week and should dominate the Rams’ offensive backups. Marcus Mariota figures to be on the field for a little bit, so the Raiders offense should get off to a good start. 8* Las Vegas

10* Under Jets/Packers (4:25 ET): The Under is now a remarkable 17-3 in all preseason games. The total for this game at Lambeau Field on Saturday is one of the smallest yet. This makes sense based on the fact that the Packers' QB situation is rather dire. We know Aaron Rodgers isn’t going to waste his time playing. But backup Jordan Love, his alleged “heir apparent” is dealing with a shoulder injury and he might be out as well. Also, the Jets won their first preseason game by a score of 12-7. This promises to be a very low-scoring game. Take the Under. 

Even with Love on the field last week, the Packers weren’t doing much. He directed just one scoring drive on six possessions vs. a bad Texans defense. The final score was 26-7. It’s pretty clear that GB HC Matt LaFleur doesn’t care much for the preseason. He didn’t even dress 30 players last week. As unimpressive as Love was against the Texans, the running game may have been even worse as it gained only 49 yards on 21 attempts. If Love does not play this week, that means third-stringer Kurt Benkert will get the start and play most of the way. Love did not practice all week. 

There wasn’t much offense to speak of from the Jets’ game last week either. It was 3-0 going into halftime and 10-0 late in the 4Q. The only score the defense allowed came after a turnover, a drive that started at their own 17-yard line. The Jets defense, which allowed just 163 total yards last week and 3.7 yards per play, must have been angry as they finished off the game with a safety. On offense, rookie QB Zach Wilson went 6 of 9 for 63 yards on two drives. But the Jets’ running game was really bad, gaining only 2.4 yards per carry. I just don’t see many points being scored here. 10* Under Jets/Packers

10* Cincinnati (8:00 ET): Preseason lines shouldn’t be this high and when it’s a non-conference dog of 5.5 or more, taking the points has cashed better 60 percent of the time since 2004. So I’m going with the Bengals (plus the points) Friday night. They are coming off a 19-14 win over Tampa Bay in Week 1 of the preseason. Beating the defending Super Bowl Champs, even in a relatively meaningless matchup, was a nice way for Zac Taylor’s team to start the season. QB Joe Burrow, still recovering from ACL surgery, isn’t going to play here. But I’m confident that the Bengals can still win, or at the very least cover the spread.

Washington lost its first preseason game, 22-13 to New England. They gave up a long TD at the end of the game. That was after their own long 4Q scoring drive. We are likely to see starting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick for a series or two Friday night, but it won’t be long until he gives way to Taylor Heinicke and Steven Montez. Those two averaged just 5.4 yards per attempt in the first game. Kyle Allen is also expected to make his season debut tonight. But I don’t expect much from him. 

The Football Team’s defense also looked pretty bad in the second half last week. I think that is going to be the key here as - at the very worst - the proverbial “back door” will be open late for the Bengals to come in and steal the cover. The Bengals’ defense forced three turnovers last week and allowed only 159 total yards. The offense did turn it over four times, which I assume will be cleaned up this week. QB’s Kyle Shurmer and Brandon Allen combined to go 19 of 29 against the Bucs. I like the Bengals’ defensive line to make a few plays. Take the points. 10* Cincinnati

10* Philadelphia (7:30 ET): The Eagles looked good for a half in Week 1 of the preseason. They took a 16-7 lead into the break after four scoring drives of six or more plays. The biggest play came when Joe Flacco (remember him?) threw a 79-yard TD pass to Quez Watkins late in the first quarter. But despite more than 200 yards of offense in the 1H, it was not meant to be. The Eagles’ defense was torched in the second half, giving up three long scoring drives that totaled 17 points. As a result, they lost to the Steelers 24-16. I think that loss will have the new coaching staff even hungrier for Week 2. I’m taking the points.

New England was a 22-13 winner in its first preseason game. But that score was a little misleading as they got a late 91-yard TD run with just over a minute to go. Of course, that was after giving up a long TD drive right before. The big story in Patriots’ camp is at QB. You’ve got Cam Newton competing with rookie Mac Jones for the starting job. Both saw action last week. Newton was just 4 of 7 for 49 yards. Jones completed 13 of 19 passes, but for only 87 yards. So neither was taking any chances.

Unless something shocking happens in the next two weeks, Jalen Hurts is going to be the Eagles’ starting QB come Week 1 of the regular season. He was 3 of 7 in the opener. Hurts has reportedly looked good during the joint practices this week. There will be a sense of familiarity by kickoff Thursday night. But in the end, this comes down to a first year coaching staff not wanting to lose a second straight week at home. Expect Eagles HC Nick Sirianni to play to win. 10* Philadelphia

10* Jacksonville (7:00 ET): This Week 1 preseason matchup attracted plenty of early “action” on the Jaguars once the Browns announced that the majority of their starters won’t even bother to suit up. Coach Kevin Stefanski has made it clear that Baker Mayfield is out for Saturday. That would normally make veteran Case Keenum in line to be the starter, but according to Browns’ beat reporters, Keenum may not see a ton of action either. So that means the Browns would be down to Kyle Lauletta, a former fourth round pick of the Giants, to take most of the reps at QB. Yeah, no thanks. Lay the points here.

The Jaguars’ QB situation is obviously more interesting as they took Trevor Lawrence with the first overall draft choice. Shockingly, new HC Urban Meyer has declared it to be an “open” QB competition between Lawrence and incumbent Gardner Minshew. Both are going to see playing time here, which is a good reason to be on the Jags. Either is a better option than whomever is taking snaps for Cleveland under center. 

Throw in the fact that this will be Meyer’s first home game as Jacksonville head coach and you’ve got to believe the Jags will be the more motivated team come Saturday. They are off a dreadful 1-15 SU season that ended with 15 consecutive losses. Winning this game is far more important to them than to a Browns team that went 11-5 SU LY and made the playoffs. Expectations are the highest they’ve been for the Browns in some time heading into 2021. But like most playoff teams from the previous year, the preseason doesn’t matter much. Jaguars players will be looking to make an impression on the new coaching staff. Stefanski already knows what he has and is sitting basically everyone. 10* Jacksonville 

8* Over Dolphins/Bears (1:00 ET): The big story in this one is that Bears rookie QB Justin Fields is expected to play longer than usual. "For Justin, for sure [he'll play] past the halftime," Bears HC Matt Nagy said before the Bears and Dolphins held a joint practice. "The mindset going into this is that he's going to get a lot of reps. Does that take him into the fourth quarter? Maybe. ... The more reps we can get him right now, the better. It's only going to help him." From all accounts, Fields has looked better than Andy Dalton in camp. It remains to be seen if he will be the starter for Week 1 of the regular season.

Miami is coming off a much better than anticipated season. They went 10-6 SU, but did NOT make the playoffs. Expectations for this season is that they WILL make the playoffs. I’m not so sure. The defense forced the most turnovers in the league last year, a feat that almost certainly will not be replicated in 2021. All those turnovers the Dolphins forced somewhat masked the fact the defense was 24th in yards allowed. Facing a highly motivated Fields, I expect Miami to give up plenty of yards .. and points in this one.

Fields playing into the second half is a big deal. After him, Dalton isn’t just going to roll over. So, there’s a chance that for this entire first preseason game, the Bears will have competent QB play. For Miami, Tua Tagovailoa has reportedly looked GREAT in camp. The talk is that he’s mastered the playbook and is ready to take the proverbial second year leap. Tua is expected to play Saturday afternoon. How long is anyone’s guess. But I think Miami will put some points on the board as well. 8* Over Dolphins/Bears

8* Detroit (7:00 ET): This is a 1st year head coach (Dan Campbell) making his home debut. That’s a situation I typically bet on during the preseason and the Lions will be no exception here. Campbell takes over an outfit that was pretty bad in 2020. The Lions finished 5-11 and had the worst point differential in the NFC. The biggest offseason news (besides the hiring of Campbell) was the trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the Rams in exchange for Jared Goff. Goff will start this game and behind him there’s a battle for #2 on the QB depth chart between Tim Boyle and David Blough. 

Buffalo went 13-3 last season and made it all the way to the AFC Championship Game. They have a lot less question marks entering 2021 than do the Lions. Obviously, if this were a regular season contest, I’d handicap this matchup a lot differently. But with QB Josh Allen (just got a big new contract) and several other Bills’ offensive starters set to sit this one out, it’s a whole different ball game in the preseason. Mitchell Trubisky is likely who Buffalo will be counting on for most of the snaps, at least early on, and he’s not to be trusted.

Inheriting a shaky operation, Campbell will want to win this first game in front of fans. Buffalo should be accommodating. The regular season is the Bills’ focus right now while the Lions aren’t likely to win very many games when they start counting. So a win tonight would go a long way for their confidence early on. Goff should play about a quarter with the rest of the offensive starters, which is fine. Clearly, I think Campbell’s motivation to win here is the key factor. Go with the home team. 8* Detroit

10* Over Washington/New England (7:30 ET): The 2020 NFL season was like none other before it. There were obvious reasons why that was the case. One that did not make many headlines, but was truly unique, is the fact Washington made the playoffs and New England did not. The last time that happened was 1999. Bill Belichick was not yet the head coach of the Patriots at that time. He’d take over the following season and has since led the franchise to one of the most sustained runs of greatness in the history of sports. But last year marked the first time Tom Brady was not on Belichick’s roster. We all know how that went. 

While the Pats may have missed the playoffs for just the fourth time in 21 years, they actually finished with the same 7-9 regular season record as the Football Team. Washington was simply fortunate enough to play in the horrible NFC East. I expect regression from them in 2021 as there’s virtually no shot their defense can repeat last season’s effort. Conversely, New England will probably improve its record. But how much remains to be seen. 

New England’s improvement hinges on the QB position. They drafted Mac Jones (out of Alabama) in the first round of the Draft. They also still have Cam Newton. This will be one of the real QB battles to watch in the preseason as both look to be the Week 1 starter. Because both QBs are looking to impress, I expect the Patriots to put up a decent amount of points on Thursday. The same holds true for Washington, who has its own QB battle with Ryan Fitzpatrick, Kyle Allen and Taylor Heinicke. Remember that Heinicke had a monster playoff game against Tampa Bay with 352 total yards of offense. Take the Over. 10* Over Washington/New England

10* Under Cowboys/Steelers (8:00 ET): Scoring may have reached an all-time high last season, but don’t look for much of that in the Hall of Fame Game between the Cowboys and Steelers. Last year’s HOF Game, along with the rest of the preseason, was nixed due to the pandemic. In case you’d forgotten, the NFL Preseason is a “whole different ball game” with stars sitting and backups taking the majority of the snaps. Nowhere is this more apparent than the “annual” game in Canton. Six of the last eight HOF Games have seen 33 or less total points scored. I think that trend will continue in 2021. Take the Under. 

Dak Prescott has been ruled out for Dallas, which means that Garrett Gilbert, Cooper Rush and Ben DiNucci will split the snaps under center. The Cowboys were terrible offensively without Prescott last season. Gilbert figures to get the start. The Steelers, who figure to have one of the top defenses in the league again this year, saw Gilbert in 2020. They held him to 243 yards and one touchdown in a 24-19 win. With far less talent set to be on the field Thursday, this one will be even lower scoring. Mike McCarthy is not a coach I have much affinity for to begin with and I don’t see him opening up the playbook here. 

Like Prescott, Ben Roethlisberger won’t play here for the Steelers. Not like Big Ben is much of a difference maker anymore anyway. Mason Rudolph, Dwayne Haskins and Joshua Dobbs are the three QBs we figure to see for the Black and Gold and I doubt any of them will do very much. It’s the first game, so expect vanilla game plans, little risk and not much scoring. Both coaching staffs just want to leave Canton healthy. Winning isn’t even that important here. 10* Under Cowboys/Steelers

8* Dallas (8:00 ET): Here's a game that's seen a significant line move as I suspect Bucs' 1st year HC Bruce Arians is going to play this one pretty conservatively. It was two weeks ago when I took the Cowboys to cover against the Rams. They did just that in a 14-10 victory. I bring that up because that game also saw a significant line move go Dallas' way. America's Team followed that win up w/ a very impressive showing last week at home vs. Houston, winning 34-0. The Cowboys' defense has played very well this preseason, giving up a total of just 27 points. Lay the number here.

Tampa Bay comes in 2-1 after winning each of the last two weeks. Their three games this preseason have all been decided by two points or less. They covered for me in the opener, in backdoor fashion, losing by only two at Pittsburgh. Then, they rallied late to beat Miami 16-14, but failed to cover the number. Last week, it was an ugly 13-12 win over Cleveland. The offensive line was dominated by the Browns, giving up five sacks. We'll be seeing the BACKUPS for that unit this week, which sounds scary. Also the Bucs' offense was shutout entirely in the first half last week as they were down 9-0 going into halftime. Backup Blaine Gabbert suffered a dislocated shoulder, adding injury to insult.

Don't expect much scoring either way in this one, but given how the Dallas defense has looked so far, you really shouldn't expect much from the Tampa Bay offense this week. The Cowboys allowed just 135 total yards last week vs. Houston, as impressive a "dress rehearsal" game as any team had. Cooper Rush has had a solid preseason and has likely already earned the backup role to Dak Prescott.  8* Dallas

8* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): Still shell-shocked from the sudden retirement of Andrew Luck, you think the Colts might be a LITTLE distracted here. They're already on the verge of a winless preseason anyway and the Luck fallout has obviously consumed camp in Indy this past week. They've averaged just 17 PPG in the first three games and failed to cover all three. Now, obviously this game in Cincinnati will be no different than the other three in that they don't have Luck. But extra precaution will now have to be taken at the QB position so that there's no more surprises heading into the regular season.

If you've been following my preseason selections the last few years, then you know that I love to bet a 1st year head coach in his first home game. More often than not, it works. The rationale is pretty simple. At a time when there's little motivation on either side, a new coach is going to want to win to get the fanbase on his side. Well, things didn't work out for new Bengals HC Zac Taylor last week at home vs. the Giants. Note Cincy did lead 17-10 early in the 4Q, only two allow two Giants' touchdowns, one on a punt return. This is Taylor's last chance to win over the fanbase in what promises to be a long season. Look for him to make good on it.

Jacoby Brissett will be the Colts starting QB when the regular season starts, but I don't think HC Frank Reich dares to play him here for risk of him getting hurt. In last year's preseason finale (also against the Bengals), the Colts did sustain a couple injuries. So it's going to be a very cautious approach from them here. Meanwhile, I believe Taylor is going to want to win. Rookie QB Ryan Finley, a 4th round DC, has had a strong camp for the Bengals. Cincy has scored 23 pts each of the last two weeks, more than the Colts have scored in any game this preseason. 8* Cincinnati

8* NY Jets (7:00 ET): Same thing as the Bengals here as  Jets HC Adam Gase is trying to avoid going winless at home in his first year at the helm. Technically, he's already 0-2 SU at home this preseason as the opener was against the Giants. The Jets lost that game 31-22 and then again last week to the Saints, 28-13. The latter was a game I still cashed in on as the Under, which won - barely, was my 10* Total of the Month. It was a rare time sitting out a 1st year HC in his home debut, but I'll come back w/ Gase and the Jets this time as they close out the preseason vs. Philadelphia. 

I'm actually quite high on the Eagles going into this year, but the team you see Thursday night won't even resemble the one you see Week 1 vs. Washington. Philly has actually had a pretty rough preseason as they've lost TWO quarterbacks to injury, those being Nate Sudfeld and Cody Kessler. Things got so dire at the position that 40-year old Josh McCown was dragged out of mothballs! McCown actually looked fairly good in his debut last week, completing 17 of 24 passes for 192 yards. But the Eagles QB situation is not pretty heading into the preseason finale. 

The Eagles lost last week to the Ravens, 26-15, as three-point home underdogs. It was a game that was ruled "no action" as weather prevented it from going a full 60 minutes. Outside of McCown, it was not a particularly good performance from the Eagles anyway. They were down 26-0 at halftime. Keep in mind that this was the "dress rehearsal" game. I'll still stand firm that the Eagles are going to win the NFC East this year, but they're not going to win this game as Gase will be out to win one in front of the faithful at MetLife Stadium. 8* NY Jets

10* Under Saints/Jets (7:30 ET):  Spoiler alert: I'm not as high on the Saints this year as most are. It's been two years of win increases for Drew Brees and company, first from 7 to 11 wins in 2017, then 11 to 13 last year. But both seasons ended w/ bitter playoff defeats and Brees isn't getting any younger. Their opponents for this week, the Jets, are a team that I consider likely to be one of the most improved in the AFC this year, if not in all of the league. QB Sam Darnold looked good down the stretch in his rookie year and the offense added RB Le'Veon Bell. The defense should also be good (despite losing LB Avery Williamson) for 1st year HC Adam Gase. 

But I won't be picking the Jets here, even though it is Gase's first home game on the sidelines. Normally that's a spot where I'd fire, but the Jets didn't show much last week in an ugly 22-10 win over Atlanta. That's a Falcons team that has been horrific in the preseason w/ 11 straight losses dating back to 2017. The Jets couldn't even muster 200 total yds of offense against Atlanta, though Darnold did look good during his time in the game. But the key to the Jets' victory was Atlanta' ineptitude. Three Falcons turnovers were the deciding factor. One was returned for a TD late in the 4Q. The Jets also had two more scoring drives of less than 30 yards in the second half. 

New Orleans is also off a bit of a "misleading" victory as they came back to beat the Chargers 19-17 last week thanks to backup QB Taysom Hill. The Saints were down 17-3 at half and showing little signs of life. HC Sean Payton is one of those coaches that never takes the preseason too seriously. Brees is slated to see his only preseason action this week, but that won't last long. Given that they've already suffered a major injury (Williamson), don't expect Jets' starters to play all that long either. We already know Bell won't play at all in the preseason. Look for this game to stay Under the total. 10* Under Saints/Jets

8* Green Bay (8:00 ET): The Raiders are 2-0 in the preseason, but don't look for that to carryover into the regular season. Making more headlines right now in Oakland is Antonio Brown's act, which is rapidly wearing thin. With or without Brown, the Raiders are probably destined to finish last this year in the AFC West. For the first time this preseason, expect them to taste defeat as they face the Packers at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg, Manitoba (home of the CFL's Blue Bombers) Thursday. The Packers will be motivated here coming off a 26-13 loss to Baltimore last week. Lay the points. 

While they lost last week, Green Bay's 1st preseason game was a success as they won for 1st year HC Matt LaFleur in his Lambeau debut, beating the Houston Texans 28-26 as one-point favorites. The Pack actually led that game 28-10 going into the 4th quarter. Less should be made of last week's loss as, for whatever reason, Baltimore always tries very hard to win these preseason games. Last week marked the Ravens' 11th consecutive preseason win. The Raiders don't have that same kind of attitude and it's already been a challenging week dealing with Brown. 

For Green Bay, this will be the first of two consecutive games where they'll be playing a team they meet again in the regular season. Raiders HC Jon Gruden has been notorious with his disdain for that situation and thus I'm not convinced the Silver and Black will treat this "dress rehearsal" game w/ the same sense of urgency that you'd normally see. The word out of Raiders' camp is that health is the primary concern right now as several players are injured.  Meanwhile, for the Pack, Aaron Rodgers may very well see the field for the first time. LaFleur has previously said he wants to get Rodgers some game experience before the regular season starts. Regardless if Rodgers plays or not, expect the Packers to win easily. 8* Green Bay

10* Cincinnati (7:00 ET): Based on the first two preseason games, concerns over the Giants' 2019 fortunes may be all for naught. Of course, we know better and wouldn't want to make any premature claims based on two exhibitions. That said, you probably should expect the G-Men to improve upon LY's 4-win total. Rookie QB Daniel Jones will at some point replace two-time Super Bowl winner Eli Manning. But we're months from that now. The Giants did beat the Jets 31-22 and the Bears 32-13 the L2 weeks, but both games were at home. Let's see how they play on the road, in front of a crowd eager to see what it's new head coach has in store. Lay the points. 

Marvin Lewis was finally run out of Cincinnati after 16 seasons. Those 16 seasons may have brought more highlights to Bengals' fans than the 16 that preceded Lewis' tenure, but ultimately they brought no playoff wins. You shouldn't expect any playoff wins this year under 1st year HC Zac Taylor either. But Thursday should certainly bring a motivated effort as it's the team's first time playing in Cincinnati under Taylor. The Bengals opened the preseason by splitting a couple road games. They lost 38-17 at Kansas City, but were a lot better last week in a 23-13 win in Washington. Not only did the defense obviously play better, but the offense turned it over three fewer times as well, which always helps. 

In the past, I've constantly harped on the motivational edge a home team enjoys in the preseason when playing for a new coach. We saw it w/ our 10* Game of the Week in Week 1 (Arizona) and last week Tampa Bay may not have covered, but they did come back and win for Bruce Arians. Expect the same out of the Bengals for Taylor. Backup QB Ryan Finley has looked good so far in the preseason. The rookie out of Boise State has completed 33 of his 44 pass attempts for 259 yards and three touchdowns. With this being the third game, Andy Dalton and the starters will see the field more. The same holds true for the Giants, but it likely comes down to the fact that the Bengals' backups will be more motivated than their Giants' counterparts. 10* Cincinnati

8* Seattle (8:00 ET): The Seahawks "suffered" through an 0-4 preseason last year, but were more successful in this year's opener, beating Denver 22-14. What's impressive about that is the Broncos already had a game under their belt, having played the Hall of Fame Game in Canton. Curiously, Seattle closed as a slight home dog for LW's contest. But despite resting most starters (including QB Wilson) they had no problem winning outright as it was 22-6 early in the fourth quarter. One of the more refreshing takeaways from that contest was the play of backup QB Paxton Lynch, who threw 109 yards and scored two touchdowns.

Seattle was a playoff team last year. But they were one and done at the hands of Dallas. Minnesota is two years removed from an appearance in the NFC Championship Game, but failed to make the playoffs a season ago, slipping to 8-7-1. They too were a winner in their first preseason game, beating New Orleans 34-25. They put up 460 total yards in that effort, including 217 on the ground. That's pretty impressive. Then again, the Saints have a reputation for not treating the preseason with much urgency. Seattle also ran the ball well last week (151 yards), for the record. 

The Vikings defense did give up its fair share of points last week, but also scored a touchdown early in the second half, which is what broke the game open. On offense, QB Kirk Cousins led an eight-play, 73-yard drive in his lone series last week. He and the Vikings' first-teamers played into the 2nd quarter in LY's 2nd preseason game and that's expected again here. For Seattle, Russell Wilson sat out the preseason opener, but is also expected to go at least a quarter here. I like the points here as the Seahawks' backups looked good last week. 8* Seattle 

10* Dallas (10:00 ET): Two teams that have proven to care little about the preseason meet Saturday night in Hawaii. Given the line movement for this Saturday night matchup, it speaks volumes about the Rams' perceived lack of effort. Of course, the Cowboys have now lost five straight in the preseason after last week's 17-9 setback to the 49ers. We played against Dallas there, but will back them and the line move in this one. The Rams only scoring three points against the Raiders last week was an ominous sign as to what we should expect from them the next three weeks. Lay the points. 

The Rams were outgained 407-190 in last week's loss in Oakland, a game in which virtually no key player saw the field. Some starters aren't even making this trip. Blake Bortles will again start at QB. He, John Wolford and Brandon Allen combined to go 15 of 28 for 133 yards last week. There was no semblance of a running game either as the offense averaged just 2.6 yards per carry. The Rams' lack of effort in the preseason is not new. In the four games last season, they scored just 49 points. So that's now a total of 52 points in the last five. That's a big reason why we took the Under in last week's game in Oakland.

Now Dallas obviously needs to show a pulse here and I think they will. They did lead last week's game 9-7 entering the fourth quarter. That kind of defensive effort bodes well considering the skeleton crew they are likely to face here. Seeing as Dak Prescott saw the field last week, he will again this week. Four times last week, the Cowboys made into the red zone, only to come away empty-handed. So it was a better performance offensively than you might think. Every Rams starter sat last week and most will again here. 10* Dallas

10* Tampa Bay (7:30 ET): I'm projecting Miami to be the worst team in the league this year. That figures to be a popular take as oddsmakers have established them having the lowest regular season win total at 4.5 (still 5.0 at some shops). I'll first point out that this is a team that went 7-9 SU last year despite being outscored by 114 points. That's a worse point differential than either 6-10 Buffalo or even the 4-12 Jets! Over the last three seasons, the Dolphins have managed to go 23-25 despite a negative 243 point differential and even make the playoffs once. Now it's time to "pay the piper" (so to speak) as the roster has been completely torn down and a new front office/coaching staff is starting from scratch.

For what it's worth, the Dolphins did win their first preseason game, 34-27 over Atlanta. They scored a late TD to get the win for Brian Flores in his coaching debut. Perhaps the most impressive takeaway is that Josh Rosen threw for 191 yards on 13 of 20 passing. He led three different scoring drives of 60+ yards. Rosen, who was the top draft choice of Arizona last year, is embroiled in a battle w/ veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting job. But keep in mind that Rosen's performance came against an Atlanta team that has now lost 11 straight preseason games. Another issue from last week is Rosen absorbed an abnormal amount of punishment (for preseason) as the Miami offensive line looks to be really bad. They were even manhandled by the Falcons' reserve D-lineman, not a good sign obviously. 

If you recall from my analysis last week, I said the Bucs would improve this year. QB Jameis Winston looked good in his only drive, directing the offense on a 12-play, 81-yard drive that resulted in a touchdown. I think the Winston to Mike Evans combination is going to be a big one in Tampa this year. Tonight marks the 1st home game for coach Bruce Arians, a spot his counterpart won in last week. We've constantly harped on the added motivation a 1st year coach feels in his home debut and will use that situation to our advantage yet again here. 10* Tampa Bay

10* Over Dolphins/Bucs (7:30 ET):  I'm projecting Miami to be the worst team in the league this year. That figures to be a popular take as oddsmakers have established them having the lowest regular season win total at 4.5 (still 5.0 at some shops). I'll first point out that this is a team that went 7-9 SU last year despite being outscored by 114 points. That's a worse point differential than either 6-10 Buffalo or even the 4-12 Jets! Over the last three seasons, the Dolphins have managed to go 23-25 despite a negative 243 point differential and even make the playoffs once. Now it's time to "pay the piper" (so to speak) as the roster has been completely torn down and a new front office/coaching staff is starting from scratch.

For what it's worth, the Dolphins did win their first preseason game, 34-27 over Atlanta. They scored a late TD to get the win for Brian Flores in his coaching debut. Perhaps the most impressive takeaway is that Josh Rosen threw for 191 yards on 13 of 20 passing. He led three different scoring drives of 60+ yards. Rosen, who was the top draft choice of Arizona last year, is embroiled in a battle w/ veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick for the starting job. He moved the ball enough to convince me that he can do the same to a Bucs defense that remains a "work in progress" (to say the least) at this point. Because this is a battle, expect to see more of Fitzpatrick as well. 

Tampa Bay may have lost its preseason opener last week, 30-28 in Pittsburgh, but they covered the spread for me thanks to a late TD. Jameis Winston was in for only one series and directed a TD drive of 12 plays and 91 yards. Winston to WR Mike Evans is going to be a big play combo for the Bucs this year. Behind Winston is Blaine Gabbert, but also Ryan Griffen, who threw for 330 yards last week against the Steelers on 26 of 43 passing. If Arians is going to let his third-string QB rip it like that, then another Over is all but assured here. Tampa's last five preseason games have all gone Over. 10* Over Dolphins/Bucs

8* Over Jets/Falcons (7:30 ET): Don't laugh, but I have the Jets as the AFC's most improved team for 2019. Now they obviously have only one way to go (up!) after a miserable 4-win season last year. But they have a new HC in Adam Gase and if that name sounds familiar, well, it's because Gase previously coached for division rival Miami. QB Sam Darnold should "make the leap" in year #2 and the offense also welcomes in RB Le'Veon Bell. The defense will be very good. Most of my key metrics say the Jets will improve this year. They had a bad turnover margin (-10) and were 1-5 SU in one-score games. They lost the preseason opener to the Giants, 31-22. 

Atlanta just doesn't seem to care very much about the preseason. Last week's 34-27 loss down in Miami marked the Falcons' 10th straight loss in the preseason. Of course, I played against them in the Hall of Fame Game, which they lost 14-10 to Denver and failed to cover. The positive news from week to week is that the offense scored a lot more points. Having two games already under their belt should be a huge benefit to Atlanta's offense this week. Last week, QB Matt Schaub directed a 90-yard TD drive to open the game. This week, Matt Ryan is expected to make his debut. 

I don't have a great read on the Falcons for this season. While the offense did improve from the first to second week, the defense also played much worse (allowed three 60+ yd TD drives) and gave up a lot more points. This week will be the first time the Falcons have played at home this year. Darnold led a TD drive in his only series last week. But like Atlanta, the Jets defense (lots of backups) really struggled last week, giving up 414 total yards. Expect plent of points to be scored in this one. 8* Over Jets/Falcons

10* Under Jaguars/Eagles (7:00 ET): In last week's analysis, I said we were high on the Eagles for the upcoming regular season, predicting that they would win the NFC East. One week later, I still feel that way, even though the team did lose its preseason opener 27-10 to Tennessee. In the grand scheme of things, that loss is probably irrelevant, however Philly did lose backup QB Nate Sudfeld (broken wrist). This is notable due to Nick Foles no longer being around. Carson Wentz sat last week, but may actually be pressed into duty here due to the Sudfeld injury. Take the Under. 

Foles left Philly for Jacksonville of course and the Jags happen to be the Eagles' Week 2 opponent. Don't expect to see Foles Thursday night though; he's actually already been ruled OUT for this game. You won't see many of Jacksonville's other starters either. In the opener, Jags HC Doug Marrone sat 32 players, including 21 of the 22 starters. The end result was ugly as the team got shutout 29-0 by Baltimore, a team that usually tries in the preseason. The Jags offense gained only eight first downs and 112 total yards. I do look for this team to improve in 2019, but Marrone simply isn't looking to play his starters much in the preseason. 

The only other QBs on the Eagles' roster are Cody Kessler and Clayton Thorson. I had the Over LW in the Philly-Tennessee game, but that barely cashed w/ Kessler going 10 of 18 for 177 yds. It's the Under this week as HC Doug Pederson won't be playing his starters much here either. These two offenses (again, including Sudfeld) combined for only 10 points last week. One thing to note in the Jaguars' loss is that they allowed a defensive TD. So their own defense played better than the final score indicates. Both teams' backups on the defensive side of the ball should play hard here while we'll see little star power on the offensive side of the ball here. 10* Under Jaguars/Eagles 

8* San Francisco (9:00 ET): The degree to which they'll improve can be debated, but you should certainly expect the 49ers to be a better team in 2019. Oddsmakers are certainly "on board" w/ that line of thinking, posting an 8-win total for a team that won only 4 games a season ago. If you go back to this time last year, the Niners were actually a pretty trendy pick to improve. They were coming off a strong second half of 2017 w/ Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm. But Garoppolo was never really healthy and the team suffered badly. It also didn't help that they were a league-worst -25 in turnover differential. Trust me when I say virtually every sign is pointing "up" for San Francisco heading into this season.

Dallas had its own breakout in the second half of last season and ended up winning the NFC East and a playoff game over Seattle. They were 7-2 after acquiring WR Amari Cooper, but were also a lucky team in that they were 8-2 SU in games decided by seven points or less, six of those wins coming after getting Cooper. Also note that they only outscored opponents by 15 pts all of last season. I expect the Cowboys to regress (in terms of wins) in 2019. Whether or not you agree w/ me on that, you certainly have to agree that HC Jason Garrett has never been good in the preseason as his SU record is a lousy 12-21. That includes 0-4 last year. 

While Garoppolo's health may rightly be a concern for 49ers' fans (he won't play at all here), they should rest at ease a little bit thanks to the fact that backup Nick Mullens has put up nearly identical numbers in the same number of games started. Mullens will start this game. There were some injury scares this week on the defensive side of the ball this week w/ Nick Bosa and Jason Varrett both getting hurt. Both are out for the preseason, but neither was going to play much here anyway. Look for San Francisco to make a statement at home in the preseason opener. 8* San Francisco

10* Under Rams/Raiders (8:00 ET): Once upon a time, both of these teams left LA for "greener pastures." The Rams chose to return to the City of Angels and who says "you can't go back home again." Last year, the team found itself in the Super Bowl where they lost to the Patriots 13-3. As frustrating a defeat as that was, the Rams still appear to be in good shape heading into 2019, though I don't think they're going to win 13 games again. But they're still the envy of the Raiders, whose own return to Oakland has not played out the way they'd hoped these last two decades. Maybe Vegas, where they are set to move next year, will treat them better?

Speaking of returns, Jon Gruden made his to the Raiders' sideline last year, coming down from the Monday Night Football booth. It did not go particularly well. The team finished 4-12 after questionable personnel decisions, many of them directly coming from Gruden himself. Bringing in WR Antonio Brown, jettisoned from Pittsburgh, seems to offer some hope for the future. But don't expect the Raiders to make the playoffs in this final season out in Oakland. 

Gruden always seems to take the preseason more seriously than some of his contemporaries as his preseason record is 33-17 SU. We also know that these teams had a feisty practice during the week that saw Gabe Jackson (Raiders) and Aaron Donald (Rams) get into a pretty serious brawl. Shortly afterward (unrelated), Jackson was rolled up on from behind and he's done for two months. Brown is threatening never to play football again if his helmet isn't approved. Oh, the Raiders! The Rams' top offensive talent isn't likely to see the field much, if at all, Saturday. In two preseason road games last year, the Rams scored a total of seven points. They averaged just 11.7 PPG overall. The Raiders gave up only 13.5 PPG. Expect a low-scoring game. 10* Under Rams/Raiders

8* Tampa Bay (7:30 ET): The Bucs enter the 2019 season w/ a new head coach (Bruce Arians) and hopefully a new "lease on life." They still have some issues though, namely the same old QB (Jameis Winston) and a defense that gave up a frightening number of yards last season. But I think this team will enter the year somewhat underrated. They really weren't as bad as last year's 5-11 SU record indicates, considering they actually outgained opponents on a per play basis. What really hurt was losing six of the nine games decided by 7 pts or less and a -18 turnover margin. Arians will have them "ready to go" for this preseason opener and I'm taking the points.

Pittsburgh is also going to be better than a lot of people expect this year. Yes, they lost both RB Leveon Bell and WR Antonio Brown. But the former didn't play at all last season anyway and the latter's production can be offset by Ju Ju Smith-Schuster. Last year's nine-win season seemed like the "floor" for the Steelers, who were certainly more "unlucky" than bad. They too lost a lot of close games (5) and had a bad turnover margin (-11). I don't think they'll be as motivated as the Bucs tonight though. This is a team more focused on the regular season. 

Looking at the backup QB situation, Tampa Bay has Blaine Gabbert, Nick Fitzgerald and Ryan Griffin. Not exactly a "murderer's row," but the player to watch is going to RB Ronald Jones, who is having a tremendous camp. Out of USC, Jones had a disappointing rookie season last year. But he seems like he's going to "break out" in 2019. Arians used to be the OC in Pittsburgh, so that only adds to his motivation here. He's been saying the right things all week and 1st year head coaches have treated us well so far in the preseason. Pittsburgh's backup QB rotation of Mason Rudolph, Joshua Dobbs and Devlin Hodges does not scare us. 8* Tampa Bay 

10* Arizona (10:00 ET): The Cardinals have a first year coach in Kliff Kingsbury, who certainly seemed to "fail his way up" after being fired at Texas Tech. Kingsbury will have a rookie QB in Kyler Murray (#1 overall DC), the former Heisman Trophy winner, who replaces another 1st round DC (from just last year!) in Josh Rosen (traded to Miami). Not much is expected this year from Arizona, but I believe they have the potential to be at least a little bit better than LY's disastrous 3-13 SU finish. Playing the 1st preseason game at home, with a new HC, they'll certainly be more motivated than the Chargers, so lay the short number. 

Coming off a playoff appearance, the Chargers know "who they are" heading into 2019. Well, with one possible exception. RB Melvin Gordon is holding out and that could last into the regular season. Gordon was unlikely to play here anyway, same for QB Philip Rivers. Under HC Anthony Lynn, LA is 3-5 ATS in the preseason and has lost both years in Week 1. Another position of concern for the Bolts heading into the year is left tackle where anchor Russel Okung is out due to blood clots. Taking most of the snaps at QB will be the trio of Tyrod Taylor, Cardale Jones and rookie Easton Stick. 

When we backed Denver in the Hall of Fame Game, it was made clear that 1st year HC's are something we target. These preseason games often come down to motivation and we saw the Broncos play down to the wire, scoring a late TD for the win. At home, Kingsbury should be especially motivated to win. Getting the fanbase on your side is a must. Murray is scheduled for 10-12 snaps hopefully while Brett Hundley (who we last saw filling in for an injured Aaron Rodgers in 2017) will play backup. 10* Arizona

10* Over Titans/Eagles (7:30 ET): We believe that when the regular season is complete, these two teams will be on opposite ends of the spectrum. But we don't need to get into why just yet. Thursday sees the Titans and Eagles opening preseason play and what immediately caught our eye is this total is a bit higher than the rest on tonight's slate. While the first week of preseason often finds teams simply "working out the kinks," this game figures to see more scoring than you might anticipate. Take the Over. 

The Eagles are two years removed from winning the Super Bowl. Last year saw them barely make the playoffs, though they did upset the Bears in the Wild Card Round. I greatly favor them to win the NFC East this year. Other than New England over in the AFC East, I don't think there's a safer divisional call. Carson Wentz is now the undisputed signal-caller in Philly, as he should be, with Nick Foles off to Jacksonville. I know Foles won several playoff games (including the Super Bowl!), but he's never appeared in more than 13 regular season games in his career and actually turned it over 12 times in 7 games LY. Bottom line is that he's a good backup. Wentz is a former MVP.

Tennessee may have a very real QB competition on its hands for the starting gig with Ryan Tannehill challenging incumbent Marcus Mariota. The latter always seems to be hurt and is due a new contract after this season. Of course, Tannehill is hardly an inspiring choice. But look for the two to "push" each other this preseason. Clayton Thorson, a rookie from Northwestern, will get most of the reps in Week 1. For Philadelphia, it will be a mix of Cody Kessler and Logan Woods. Both teams are deep at receiver. 10* Over Titans/Eagles 

10* Denver (8:00 ET): The Broncos enter the 2019 season w/ a new head coach (Vic Fangio) and new starting QB (Joe Flacco). Being that this is their first game under a new HC, I think they're more apt to take this Hall of Fame Game more seriously compared to their opponents, who largely are bringing back the same cast of characters from last year. First year head coaches are usually a target of mine in these preseason games as motivation is such a key factor in handicapping them. A new coach definitely wants to get the fanbase on his side and the best way to do that is through some wins, even if they occur in games that are rather meaningless in the grand scheme of things. Lay the points here. 

Atlanta hasn't taken the preseason very seriously under Dan Quinn, at least I hope that the case because they've gone 5-11 SU in his four seasons here, including B2B 0-4 campaigns. So it's an eight-game preseason losing streak heading into this one for the Falcons. Were it a new coaching staff, I'd say they'd be motivated to end it. But with Quinn comfortable entering year five, I don't think it's a priority for him. Last year, the Falcons offense scored a grand total of 27 pts in four preseason games. QB Matt Ryan threw just two passes in Week 1 of the Preseason LY and may not play at all tonight. WR Julio Jones definitely isn't going to play. 

Flacco and Ryan were both drafted in the same year (2008). Flacco has won a Super Bowl, but his best days seem to be behind him. He won't play Thursday, but the Broncos have an interesting battle going on for the backup QB role involving three rookies: Drew Lock, Brett Rypien and Kevin Hogan. The hope is that Lock will win the job as he was drafted highest. But Hogan will start. This is something else to look for in the preseason, that being having motivated signal callers in the game, which ensures the offense will at least be a little more than "vanilla." History says the Broncos will be the more motivated side here. 10* Denver

10* Arizona (8:00 ET): Add the Cowboys to the list of teams who aren't taking the third week of the preseason very seriously. However, I think in their case, the move is quite understandable. It's not been a good week when it comes to the health of the offensive line. Center Travis Frederick (auto-immune disorder) and guard Zack Martin (knee) are both out and that means that HC Jason Garrett is very likely to sit starting QB Dak Prescott as well as RB Ezekiel Elliott for this one. All indication is that neither of those two stars will play. Considering that the run game is widely thought to be the strength of this Cowboys' team, I'm not sure what that leaves us with, except a team that's probably not going to be very competitive. Lay the points.

Steve Wilks is in his first year on the job as the head man at Arizona. Thus, I expect him and the Cardinals' coaching staff to take this game far more seriously than their counterparts are. Rookie QB Josh Rosen's availability might come down to a game-time decision due to his injured thumb, but Rosen was not going to start this game anyway. That "honor" goes to Sam Bradford, who by all accounts will be the Week 1 starter. We'll also see a lot of Mike Glennon, who has been a regular season starter at different points in his career. Wilks is off to a 2-0 start this preseason, covering both games as well. It was a 24-17 win over the Chargers in the first game (as three-point chalk), then a 20-15 "upset" of Arizona (as six-point dogs) last week. 

The Cowboys are 0-2 so far in the preseason. They did cover the first game, as 3.5-pt dogs, losing 24-21 to San Francisco. Then came last week's anemic looking 21-13 loss to Cincinnati. It's not just Frederick and Martin that will be missing along the offensive line here. Four of the team's five starting lineman are unlikely to play. So its pretty easy to understand why Jerry Jones ... errrr Jason Garrett would choose to sit Prescott and Elliott for fear of them getting injured. Keep in mind that the Cowboys may have the worst receiving corps in the entire NFL entering this season. So this offense, which will likely be led by Cooper Rush at QB, is going to be pretty brutal Saturday night. 10* Arizona

10* Houston (4:00 ET): Several teams appear to be approaching this preseason with little sense of urgency or effort. Count the Rams among that list. This is clearly a team w/ its eye on the regular season (and beyond). They had quite the busy offseason, adding to an already stacked roster, which makes them the overwhelming favorite to take the NFC West. But presently, there are issues, namely the Aaron Donald holdout. Then you have RB Todd Gurley publicly boasting that sitting out the preseason is every player's "dream." (Hey, can't blame him). Gurley hasn't played at all in the preseason, nor will he here. Now the same may hold true for QB Jared Goff due to the Rams' banged up offensive line. All things considered, I'll gladly lay the points w/ the Texans in this one.

Houston figures to be one of the more improved teams in the league this year. They'll have QB DeShaun Watson and DE JJ Watt back after both missed a large portion of last season due to injuries. They have opened the preseason w/ a pair of wins, beating Kansas City 17-10 and San Francisco 16-13. Keep in mind that the Texans' offense averaged an amazing 34.7 PPG in Watson's six starts last year. With Watson and the first-teamers expected to get extended time on Saturday afternoon, it should be easy pickings against the "skeleton crew" Los Angeles is trotting out there. Watson completed 5 of his 8 pass attempts last week vs. the 49ers, for 77 yards. This week, he'll be able to throw to both Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins, neither of whom have yet to suit up this preseason. 

The Rams' defense, sans Donald, may be at near full strength here with starters ready to play. But it's the offensive side of the ball that you have to worry about. Gurley definitely isn't playing and it's become pretty apparent that Goff will be joining him on the sidelines. Then you have the offensive line, which is down three starters. That's both tackles and the center. So you can see why HC McVay isn't eager to put Goff and/or Gurley on the field. The Rams two options at QB are Sean Mannion and Brandon Allen, neither of whom are a particularly attractive option. Mannion was BRUTAL in the team's preseason opener, completing just 3 of 23 pass attempts. The Rams lost that game 33-7 to the Ravens. They did actually win last week, beating the Raiders 19-15, but that was an odd circumstance w/ neither side showing ANYTHING due to the fact the teams will be playing each other again in Week 1 of the regular season. The Texans are 6-3-1 ATS their L10 preseason games and it's clear to me that they're the ones taking this third week of the preseason more seriously. 10* Houston

8* Oakland (10:30 ET): If you're wondering how a spread could be this high in the preseason, particularly when it's Green Bay getting the points, be aware that Mike McCarthy is opting to rest the majority of his key veterans Friday night. That includes Aaron Rodgers. Reportedly, several starters aren't even making the trip out to the West Coast. So that should pave the way for the Raiders to garner an easy win and cover in this third preseason game. Lay the points. 

The Packers have admittedly looked impressive in their first two preseason games and that's w/ Rodgers attempting only four passes. I had them last week in a 51-point effort against the Steelers where they could not be stopped, no matter who was at quarterback. It was their second straight 17-point victory, though they were actually outgained in the contest. (GB had two defensive touchdowns, one right off the bat, which definitely helped). The Packers' defense was certainly less than stellar against Pittsburgh. Both of Rodgers' backups - Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer - have fared well this preseason, but now let's see how they perform against a team's starters. 

Despite Khalil Mack holding out, the Raiders' defense has played well in its two preseason games, allowing just 29 pts. Problem is that they've scored only 31. But w/ Derek Carr and the first team offense getting extended playing time this week, I expect the Raiders' highest scoring effort to date. With regards to LW's loss to the Rams, keep in mind Jon Gruden used a very "vanilla" gameplan as Oakland opens the regular season up against the Rams. It was a game that the coaching staff seemingly had very little interest in. Much like Green Bay here. It's obvious to me that the Packers are NOT taking the third game of the preseason as seriously as most teams, so that makes them an easy fade. 8* Oakland 

10* Detroit (8:00 ET): The Lions are reportedly taking this game very seriously. That shouldn't be all that surprising seeing as the third game of the preseason is the one teams are supposed to take the most seriously. But in the case of the Lions, they have every reason to treat this as if it was a regular season affair. They're 0-2 SU in the preseason, including a 30-17 loss LW to the Giants in new HC Matt Patricia's home debut. Reportedly, the team and coaching staff was quite disgusted with that performance and really looking for across the board improvement. The opponent, Tampa Bay, is a team that would just as soon NOT play this game. They've had a terrible week with injuries and thus the "dress rehearsal" game is not something they're probably looking forward to. Take the points. 

The good news for the Bucs is that they've opened the preseason by going 2-0. QB Jameis Winston has looked good, but the problem there is he won't be available for the first three regular season games (suspended). So, with an eye on the regular season, you have to think this game will be less about Winston and more about getting his replacement ready for Week 1. That should mean a lot more of Ryan Fitzpatrick in this game. Then there is the issue of injuries. LT Donovan Smith went down w/ a knee injury Tuesday and will be out 2-4 weeks. The team was already thin along the O-line and now has to sign guys off the street. There are also multiple injuries in the secondary, safety Justin Evans being the latest. 

With the injuries along the Bucs' offensive line, there might be hope yet for a Lions' pass rush that has been basically non-existent so far in the preseason. With QB Matt Stafford set to see extended time here, the Bucs' secondary can also be exploited. The Lions threw the ball a lot LW vs. the Giants, but it would also be nice to see them getting the run game going. The first half wasn't the issue last week for the Lions, it was the second where things got out of hand. Backups are less of an issue in the third preseason game. Handicapping the preseason sometimes just comes down to the simple question of motivation. The Lions should have it, so take the points. 10* Detroit 

8* Cleveland (8:00 ET): As far as the NFL spectrum goes, you can't get any further apart than these two teams. The Eagles won the Super Bowl last season. The Browns went 0-16. Yet, here we are in the preseason and Cleveland is favored. For what it's worth, the Browns did go 4-0 SU/ATS last year in the preseason. They are 1-1 SU/ATS this year. Philly has dropped both of its preseason games thus far, including a Super Bowl rematch w/ the Patriots last week. I took New England in that one, noting the likelihood that the Patriots would be the more motivated side (revenge!). I was clearly right as the Pats quickly raced out to a 17-0 lead and never looked back. They led by as much as 34-7 in the 2nd half en route to a 37-20 win and cover. 

This being the third week of the preseason, starters will see the most action of any of the four games. That means QB Nick Foles (hero of LY's Super Bowl) will play about a half for Philly. That would seem to give the visitors a significant advantage. But Foles injured his throwing shoulder last week, taking a hit, and did not return. Expect the Eagles' coaching staff to be extra cautious w/ Foles given the uncertain status of Carson Wentz, who will NOT play here and may or may not be ready for the start of the regular season. It's not like Foles was particularly effective when he was in there last week. He completed just 3 of 9 passes for 44 yards in his 2018 debut. Also, Foles will be missing a ton of key receivers and wideouts. Four running backs (Ajayi, Clement, Pumphrey and Sproles) are all out as are the top three WRs (Jeffrey, Agholor, Wheaton). 

The Browns are reportedly drawing some serious action from the betting public for the upcoming season, both in terms of exceeding their projected number of wins as winning the AFC North and Super Bowl. Hey, everybody loves a longshot. Maybe its being on Hard Knocks that's responsible for that. Obviously, this team is not going to win its division, let alone the Super Bowl, but they should be vastly improved. This is still preseason and I expect them to be the more motivated side Thursday night, especially playing at home. They're certainly more healthy compared to the Eagles. At QB, Tyrod Taylor (presumed Wk 1 starter) will play the bulk of the first half. But after he exits, expect #1 overall DC Baker Mayfield to come in and make plays. 8* Cleveland 

10* Chicago (9:05 ET): The Bears are a team w/ a 1st year head coach (Matt Nagy) that has yet to taste its first victory of the preseason. They've played twice mind you, losing both games close. They covered for me in the Hall of Fame Game, losing 17-16 as underdogs to the Baltimore Ravens. They followed that up LW w/ a 30-27 loss at Cincinnati. Unlike the Ravens game where they scored late to "steal" the cover, that loss to the Bengals saw them ALLOW a late TD to blow the lead and cover and they left w/ no cash in what closed as a pick 'em game. I fully expect the Monsters of the Midway to want to win this week's game for their new HC and it should come easy against a Denver team that was absolutely shredded last week in a 42-28 home loss to Minnesota. Take the points. 

Last season was the first on the job for Denver HC Vance Joesph. He went 4-0 SU/ATS in the preseason, but that did not translate to the regular season where the team finished a very disappointing 5-11 SU. The defense isn't what it once was and the offense had (has?) a hole at the most important position (quarterback). To address that issue, Case Keenum was brought in to be the starter. But in limited action LW, he was able to complete just 1 of 4 passes for five yards. Behind him is Paxton Lynch, who is quickly turning into a major bust, and Chad Kelly. Kelly was a surprise last week, throwing for two TD passes and 177 yards against the Vikings backups. But I wouldn't expect a repeat performance of that. Then there is the Broncos' defense, which gave up 24 pts in the first half and 400 yds for the game. I'm not a big Joseph fan and wouldn't be surprised to see him gone at the end of this season. 

Now the Bears certainly have things to work on themselves here, namely turnovers. They have 7 TO's so far, but the good news is that that's correctable. Their own defense gave up 447 yds, but the offense gained 423 of its own. Starters will play deeper into the first half here. Most of the key offensive weapons saw very limited or no time last week, but that'll change here w/ Jordan Howard, Tarik Cohen and Allen Robinson all suiting up. Having an extra game under their belt at this point will help the Bears here. 10* Chicago

8* Oakland (4:00 ET): We've seen some substantial line movement here, which - at least so far this preseason - has typically been a sign to "follow the money." One could certainly argue that the Rams will want to atone for an ugly showing in the first week of the preseason where they were routed by the Ravens 33-7. But there's yet to be any real indication that the Rams are taking the preseason very seriously. This is a team w/ a clear eye on the regular season and making the playoffs. Their activity in the offseason puts them on a short list of Super Bowl contenders for some. But there has been some turmoil, namely the Aaron Donald holdout. HC Sean McVay held out most of his starters in Week 1 and has vowed to do the same here. 

Meanwhile, the Raiders are operating under a 1st year HC (Jon Gruden), thus they will be more inclined to be motivated. They did win their preseason opener, at home, 16-10 over the Lions. Now, both coaches have publicly stated that they'd rather NOT play this game considering the teams will open the regular season opener against each other on Monday Night Football. So you can expect some pretty vanilla game plans. Again though, that nullifies that talent edge that the Rams have, at least when at full strength. Withe the Raiders coming off a disappointing 2017 season (went 6-10 SU), they've got more question marks and thus position battles where individual players are competing for spots on the roster. It might not be until late in the game, but eventually it will become apparent that the Raiders are the more motivated side here.

Oakland's defense held Detroit to just 227 total yards last week, so I wouldn't expect them to be a problem against a Rams' offense that probably won't show anything. Rams' QB Sean Mannion looked terrible last week against Baltimore, completing only 3 of 13 pass attempts for 16 yards. Brandon Allen did better, but still threw for only 73 yards. Again, Jared Goff is almost a lock NOT to play. For the Raiders, Derek Carr did take some snaps LW and I'll take his backups - Connor Cook and EJ Manuel - over what Los Angeles has to offer. 8* Oakland

10* Detroit (7:00 ET): Both of these teams have first year head coaches and both dropped their respective preseason opener. In the case of the Giants, now led by Pat Shurmur, they lost 20-10 at home to the Cleveland Browns (a team Shurmur formerly coached). Matt Patricia's Detroit Lions lost their opener 16-10 at Oakland. Can you believe its only been two years since BOTH of these teams were in playoffs? Me either. The Giants fell harder last year as an injury-riddled team basically quit on Ben McAdoo and finished 3-13 SU. The Lions were 9-7 SU and actually finished w/ a better point differential (+34) than they did in their 2017 season playoff season. But it still wasn't enough to save Jim Caldwell's job. Bottom line here is I expect Patricia and his coaching staff to be highly motivated to win the first time in front of the fanbase. 

The lone highlight for the Giants in that first preseason game may have been the performance of #2 overall draft choice, RB Saquon Barkley. He went for 39 yards on his first carry. Sadly though, it's highly unlikely he'll be seeing any time in this game. Barkley suffered what is being termed a "minor hamstring injury" and did not participate in the joint practices w/ the Lions this week. At QB, Eli Manning is at the point in his career where the preseason is fairly useless. That leaves an underwhelming trio of signal-callers for Shurmer to rely on here. Last week saw Davis Webb, Alex Tanney and Kyle Lauletta combine for 167 passing yards on 38 attempts. Hardly inspiring. The G-Men were 4 of 17 on third down last week as well.

Detroit was hardly impressive in Patricia's debut. They too scored 10 pts and gained just 227 total yards (3.5 yards per play). They were 3 of 14 on third downs and neither QB - Jake Rudock or Matt Cassel - attempted to throw the ball downfield much. Like I said earlier though, the determining factor here should be the homefield advantage as Patricia looks to win over the fanbase. One interesting stat is that the Lions are 11-1 SU their last 12 preseason home games, covering the spread nine times. I fully expect them to "play to win the game" Friday night. 10* Detroit

8* Green Bay (8:00 ET): It's been a rather traumatizing week in Steelers camp w/ Ben Roethlisberger getting knocked down in practice and ending up in the league's concussion protocol. Thus, I have to believe the team is just going to want to "get through" this Week 2 preseason game in Green Bay. Taking advantage of three Eagles turnovers, the Steelers won their first preseason game, 31-14. I do not anticipate they'll be as fortunate this week. Lay the points.

QB Aaron Rodgers will make his preseason debut here (will likely play for just a few series) for the Packers. But even if he leads the offense to a score or two, it will be more than worth it. Rodgers has made headlines by ripping his young receiving corps for what he perceived as some "sloppy" practices. So expect that group to be motivated Thursday night. One thing is for certain and that's Green Bay had no problems racking up yardage on offense in the first preseason game. They ended up w/ 445 in a 31-17 win and cover over the Titans. Overall, they had three TD drives of 75+ yards. Behind Rodgers will be Brett Hundley and DeShone Kizer, both of whom have started regular season games last year. Both should be able to move the ball against the Steelers' backups.

The Packers are one of the teams that seem to take the preseason fairly seriously. They've won seven of their last nine overall, scoring 20 or more pts in four of the last five. They've also been particularly strong at home where they've won eight of nine in preseason play, including six straight. Meanwhile, I just can't see the Steelers taking this one too seriously. (Remember, there's no LeVeon Bell either). It's been a tough week of camp w/ multiple injury scares. Do not be surprised is Pittsburgh ends up being a bit of a disappointment this season. 8* Green Bay

10* New England (7:30 ET): Think there might be some motivation from the favorite here? Even Tom Brady is likely to see time in this one as the Patriots look to exact a little bit of revenge here against the Eagles. Granted no matter what takes place Thursday night, it cannot erase the memory of what happened to the Patriots last February in Super Bowl 52. That was the rare instance of a Bill Belichick team seemingly being outplayed and outcoached. Preseason or not, if you don't think the New England coaching staff wants to win this one, you're kidding yourself.

The Super Bowl Champion Eagles committed three turnovers in a 31-14 loss to the Steelers last week. They looked anything but the part of defending Super Bowl Champs, but it was just the 1st preseason game. Perhaps the only interesting thing that they did was attempt a two-point conversion after each touchdown (went 1 for 2). Neither of Philadelphia's top two quarterbacks - Carson Wentz or Nick Foles - took a snap. Since Wentz has yet to be cleared for contact, he's unlikely to play at all in the preseason. Foles, who is battling neck spasms, will start. But HC Doug Pederson will probably have Foles on a short leash. Only one starting receiver will see time and that's newcomer Mike Wallace. The first team defense was the bright spot LW vs. the Steelers, but won't be out there long either.

Again, I feel this one comes down to simple motivation. Under Belichick, New England has been driven by spite and any measure of revenge they can exact on the Eagles - no matter how small - is something worth going for. Consider that even though they fell behind by double digits last week, the Patriots rallied back to win and cover against Washington, 26-17 as 2.5-pt chalk. As far as "wanting to win the game" goes, the Pats outscored the Redskins last week 23-0 in the second half. They clearly were playing to win. If that's the case, you can only imagine the mindset entering this one. 10* New England

10* Arizona (10:00 ET): We've got a first year HC for Arizona (Steven Wilks), so that should lead to added motivation for the home side Saturday night in the desert. Meanwhile, as per usual, the Chargers appear cursed. We're not even halfway through August and already three players have been lost for the year to ACL injuries. Two were expected to be key contributors, those being TE Hunter Henry and DB Jason Verrett. I still think Los Angeles can compete for an AFC West Championship in the regular season, but clearly they're going to want to error on the side of caution here in the preseason opener. I'll lay the short number w/ what should be the more motivated side, which is looking to win for its new HC the first time he's in front of the fanbase. 

The Lightning Bolts are just 2-6 SU and ATS in the preseason the last two years. Their only win a year ago came in the "dress rehearsal" game (Week 3) where starters saw extended time. I simply cannot imagine QB Philip Rivers will play much, if at all, in this game. His two backups are Geno Smith and Cardale Jones. Yikes! Neither is inspiring at this time in their respective careers. On the defensive side of the ball, last year HC Anthony Lynn elected to play his starters about a quarter in the first preseason game. Maybe that holds true again Saturday, but it's highly unlikely we'll see Joey Bosa after he didn't practice this week due to a sore foot. The Chargers' special teams, particularly the kicking game, are always an adventure.

For the Cardinals, the big story is going to be rookie QB Josh Rosen. Expect him to play a lot here. Rosen has a chip on his shoulder after not being drafted as high as he thought he should be. Personally, I felt Rosen was the most "NFL ready" signal caller in the Draft. I can see him playing quite well Saturday night even though it's his first professional game. That could make for an interesting 1st major decision for HC Wilks as it's believed Sam Bradford will enter the regular season as the starter. Maybe that's the way it ends up being, but Rosen isn't going to sit back and allow the decision to be an easy one. By all accounts, Rosen is grasping the offense well in practice. The vanilla schemes the Chargers' D is likely to offer him here will not be difficult to take advantage of. 10* Arizona 

8* Over Vikings/Broncos (9:00 ET): Both of these teams are usually associated w/ defense, but we'll leave that discussion for the regular season. Saturday night in the preseason opener, I expect more points to be scored than are expected. The drama here, even if it will be short-lived, resides at the QB position where Case Keenum will face his former team and his "replacement" Kirk Cousins debuts for his. Keenum led the Vikings to the NFC Championship Game LY by playing the best football of his career. Regardless if you think he's capable of repeating that kind of performance, he represents a pretty clear upgrade over what Denver had under center last season. As for Cousins, he'll be expected to give the Vikings AT LEAST a season comparable to Keenum's 2017. 

Now neither signal caller is expected to play much Saturday night. We're looking at pretty much a series or two. But what's interesting here is that the Vikings' backup, Trevor Siemian is a former Bronco. It will be interesting to see how that plays out. Will the QB have the edge on the defense by virtue of knowing the scheme, or vice versa? My guess is the former and it'll be nice for Siemian to face the Denver backups. The same holds true for Chad Kelly and Paxton Lynch w/ Denver. They'll be up against a Minnesota defense that won't even be close to its regular season capability.

The Vikings typically take the preseason fairly seriously under HC Mike Zimmer, who has a 14-3 SU/12-5 ATS record this time of year. That even includes the team failing to cover its final three preseason games last season. Heading into this game, they'll have to play w/ a makeshift offensive line due to injuries. Denver was very good in the preseason last year as well (they had a new coach in Vance Joseph). I suspect offense will be the priority in the Mile Hile City this month as that was the clear weak side of the ball in '17.  There were a lot of high-scoring games Thursday night (by NFLX Wk 1 standards) and I think this one follows suit. 8* Over Vikings/Broncos

10* NY Jets (7:30 ET): The Jets aren't expected to be very good this year. Quite frankly, no one - save for the Patriots obviously - is going to be very good in that division (AFC East) in 2018. But that won't matter here in the preseason where it will be more about backups and position battles as opposed to the overall level of talent on the teams. The Flyboys open their preseason at home tonight against the Falcons, a team that typically doesn't take the preseason very seriously. Two years removed from the Super Bowl, Atlanta should be formidable in the regular season. They know who their "horses" are, but that works to their disadvantage here. Lay the points. 

I am a little surprised that the Falcons are expected to play some of their regulars for as much as a full quarter tonight. This is includes QB Matt Ryan. But it won't include WR Julio Jones. On the other side of the ball, the first string defense is not expected to see extended playing time. It may just be the first set of downs. Even if Atlanta was to get off to a nice start w/ Ryan under center tonight, don't expect them to hold the lead or do much after he exits. Last year saw the Falcons go 0-4 SU in the preseason, scoring 14 pts or less in three of the games. The key here is going to be a motivated Jets side taking control in the second half. 

Unlike Atlanta, NY doesn't know who its starting QB will be in Week 1 of the regular season. They have rookie Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater and veteran Josh McCown as their options. Of the three, Bridgewater (coming off major injury) is the one LEAST likely to earn the job. But all three will see time Friday and they'll each want to show the coaching staff what they can bring to the table. The rookie Darnold is the most intriguing player to watch here. HC Todd Bowles enters this season firmly on "the hot seat" and would probably like nothing more than to start the year out w/ a victory. Look for the Jets to "play to the end" and cover the spread here. 10* NY Jets

8* Indianapolis (10:00 ET): The big story for this game is that Colts QB Andrew Luck is expected to play, perhaps for as long as a full quarter. That's obviously pretty rare - for a starter of his caliber - to play so long in the first preseason game. But this is a special circumstance. Luck has not played in a NFL game in 20 months. His amount of throwing has gradually increased as training camp has progressed. Without question, Luck's shoulder is the biggest key to the Colts' 2018 season. 

Indianapolis will be looking to bounce back from a horrific season where they went 4-12 SU and were outscored by 141 pts, the third worst differential in the entire luck. Presuming Luck is back in the fold, an increase in the number of wins is all but assured in '18. But the rest of the roster is full w/ holes and question marks. It also simply isn't that talent-rich. But what we'll be getting Thursday night is a lot of position battles (and thus a high level of effort) for a new coaching staff, led by Frank Reich. Another reason you can probably expect the Colts to win more games this year - they blew a NFL-high seven 2nd half leads. That's actually the third most in one year by any team since the AFL-NFL merger. It's also highly unlikely to be repeated. 

Meanwhile, it's a very different Seahawks team in 2018 than what we're used to seeing. The Legion of Boom was disassembled (only Earl Thomas remains) and this is now very much QB Russell Wilson's team. Problem is, like Luck, he's no longer surrounded by a lot of talent. Here, WR Doug Baldwin won't play due to a knee injury. Another veteran wideout, Brandon Marshall, may not play either. The offensive line, long the weak spot of this team, is learning a new scheme. On the other side of the ball, the secondary has to break in three new starters and the front seven is already down two starters. For years, Seattle has been great in the preseason, under HC Pete Carroll. They went 4-0 SU/ATS last year. But this is a much different team, one where the odds are shorter that they WON'T make the playoffs than they will. 8* Indianapolis.

10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): This past offseason should have been a time to rejoice in upstate New York. Last season saw the Bills end what had been the longest playoff drought in league (dated back to 1999). Granted, the playoff game didn't go so well. It was an ugly 10-3 loss to Jacksonville, but the bottom line is the Bills should have felt fortunate to even be there. This was a team that had been outscored by 57 pts in the regular season and did not do well against teams w/ winning records.

The goodwill from that first playoff appearance in two decades has quickly disappaited w/ the front office deciding to shed salary, leaving a roster that's clearly inferior to last year's team. Perhaps one of the more notable changes occurred at QB where Tyrod Taylor was jettisoned. It never seemed like the coaching staff liked Taylor and they now have three potential choices to replace him. None are particularly attractive as you have AJ McCarron (career backup), Nathan Peterman (complete disaster LY) and Josh Allen (a rookie w/ questionable potential). The irony though is this uncertainty at the most important position actually works to the Bills' BENEFIT here in the preseason opener. All three signal-callers are likely to see time Thursday and should be motivated. Having motivated signal-callers on the field for the majority of the game is always something to look for when handicapping the NFL preseason. 

Carolina is another playoff team from last year that I expect to take a step backwards in 2018. They were fortunate to go 11-5 SU as they were 7-1 in one-score games. The big difference, at least for this game, between them and Buffalo is the key question of motivation. The Panthers are far more likely to be content w/ "what they have." They probably aren't as aware of the pitfalls that await them this season. They pretty much bring back the same roster, led by QB Cam Newton, who isn't going to play much here (if at all). There is the question of depth at running back w/ Jonathan Stewart gone. The small-ish Christian McCaffery simply isn't built to be an "every-down" back in this league, if such a thing even still exists anyway. Another issue facing the Panthers here is they've suffered multiple injuries along the offensive line in camp. They aren't going to want to risk further depth issues. Therefore, you're likely to see an overwhelmed third string OL much of the time Thursday. That means trouble. Lay the short number w/ the more motivated team that's playing at home. 10* Buffalo

8* Chicago (8:00 ET): I can only assume that it is Baltimore's "preseason reputation" that is responsible for the early line move in this year's Hall of Fame Game in Canton, Ohio. Under HC John Harbaugh, the Ravens have gone a remarkable 28-12 SU in the preseason including a perfect 4-0 three of the last four seasons. Not only that, but they were also a perfect 4-0 ATS last season (also 4-0 SU). Given that preseason lines are generally short, the ATS record (27-13) isn't that much different than the SU mark. When it comes to handicapping the preseason, so much comes down to the simple question of motivation. Obviously, Harbaugh's teams have proven to consistently have that edge over their opponents this time of year. But, for this game, I expect it to be the Bears that come out as the more motivated side. This is their first game under new HC Matt Nagy and I'm taking the points. 

I view the Bears as a potential darkhorse in the NFC North this season. Minnesota and Green Bay are the obvious favorites, but don't be surprised if the Monsters of the Midway make it three playoff teams from the old "Black & Blue" division. Nagy's expertise is on the offensive side of the ball (comes over from the Chiefs where he was OC) and will be expected to tutor second year QB Mitchell Trubisky, who has a bevy of new weapons this year. The front office went out and added the following receivers via FA: Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel & (tight end) Trey Burton. For the defensive side of the ball, Nagy made a smart move and retained DC Vic Fangio, the one thing worth keeping from the failed Jox Fox regime. The Bears actually had a good defense LY as they ranked in the top 10 in both yards and points allowed. 

Baltimore is obviously the more "known commodity" here, but that could lead to complacency. Despite still being buried by the albatross that is Joe Flacco's contract, the Ravens are thinking playoffs for 2018, which will be GM Ozzie Newsome's final season at the helm. I seriously doubt Flacco will play much here, if at all. That leaves the reigns to rookie Lamar Jackson, a former Heisman winner that is still learning the playbook, and Robert Griffin III, who was out of football entirely last year. That's hardly inspiring. Trubisky is certainly more likely to play than is Flacco and so are some of the Bears' starters. You have to think they'll want to impress their new HC and as underdogs, I'll gladly take them. 8* Chicago

8* Miami (7:30 ET): The Dolphins were a playoff team in 2016 and almost certainly will NOT be one in 2017. Even before the loss of QB Ryan Tannehill, the Fish figured to regress in a major way due to the simple fact that they're highly unlikely to be as lucky as they were last season. This is a team that managed to go 8-2 SU in close games (those decided by 7 pts or less) last season and those two losses came in the first two weeks. Despite finishing 10-6 SU, they were actually outscored and that doesn't even include them getting exposed (badly!) in a 30-12 playoff loss to the Steelers. An easy schedule certainly helped; outside of New England (whom they have to play twice), they faced only two other playoff teams in 2016. But regardless of all of the above, I'm on them in this preseason finale as they're a good value getting points against the Vikings. 

Minnesota was a franchise on the rise two years ago, but a serious injury to Teddy Bridgewater has derailed all progress. Sam Bradford is nothing more than a stopgap until Bridgewater (missed all of last year) can finally return. Tonight is a terrible spot for the Vikings as they're laying points in meaningless game and doing so on a very short week. They just played Sunday when they rallied to beat San Francisco 32-31 w/ two touchdowns in the final six minutes. They won on a two-point conversion on the game's final play. Despite that, they were outgained in the contest (gave up 431 yards!) and, in fact, have been outgained in all three preseason games. They might be 2-1 SU in the preseason, they're actually being outgained by 70 yards per game!

Miami has had far more time to get ready for this game as they last played exactly one week ago. They lost 38-31 to Philadelphia, giving up 400+ yards themselves, but four turnovers are what really hurt. One of them was an INT return for a TD, which wound up being the difference in the ballgame. The good news is that Cutler completed five passes for 105 yards. He won't play here obviously, but neither will any of the Vikings regulars. I think the fact that Minnesota has been outgained in every preseason game thus far is very key as is the short week they're working on here. 8* Miami

10* Over Rams/Packers (7:00 ET): Over the last two preseasons, the Packers have stayed Under the total in every game (7). No other team can claim this. Therefore, despite decreasing point totals through the three games this year, the odds of an Over cashing grow w/ each passing week. The fact that the Pack have averaged just a "hair" over 21 PPG this preseason should be of no concern to fans as Aaron Rodgers has played only three series and attempted just 13 passes. Rodgers obviously won't be on the field here, but neither will the Rams' 1st team defense, which is just as important. With nothing but backups taking the field Thursday, I expect little scheming and little concern from the respective coaching staffs. Take the Over. 

The Packers scored only 17 points last week, but they were facing a Denver defense that has been tops in the league each of the last two seasons. Furthermore, they managed 10 points against the Broncos' first-teamers. The offense has been remarkably consistent in the three games, gaining between 261 and 266 total yds every time. That may not sound like a lot, and it isn't, but I'll still call for them to achieve their preseason high in this game. Note that the Rams gave up three early TD passes to Philip Rivers last week. Since Rogers won't play, let's look at the other Green Bay QB's. Brett Hundley knows the system and completed 20 of 30 pass attempts last week. I can see Joe Callahan and Taysom Hill getting the majority of the reps in this one and that's fine. Callahan made the roster last year due to a strong preseason showing and may need another here to stick w/ the team. That's because Hill is pushing him. Hill led a 75-yard TD drive in the second game (neither he nor Callahan played last week) and can run, making him dangerous against backups. 

The Rams offense was atrocious last season as #1 overall DC Jared Goff turned in a historically bad campaign, even by rookie standards. Most of the attention in LA is being paid to the Aaron Donald holdout right now. However, keep an eye on backup QB Sean Mannion, who threw for 219 yards last week. The Rams had five scoring drives last week, but the problem was that the four that went 7+ plays all ended in field goals. The exception was a Mannion-led, 90 yard TD drive. Behind Mannion is Dan Orlovsky, somehow still employed, but it is worth noting he's a former starter in this league, even if that was for some atrocious Lions teams. This is a low number and given the Packers recent history in preseason games, I'd say they are "due" for an Over. 10* Over Rams/Packers

8* Washington (4:30 ET): The Redskins have opened the preseason at 0-2 SU/ATS, but after a somewhat disastrous opener at Baltimore (lost 23-3), they looked a lot better last week at home vs. Green Bay. They actually outgained the Pack 335-266, but gave up the GW TD w/ 6:16 to go when the backups were all in. Now I'm well aware that QB Kirk Cousins failed to impress. He and the 'Skins' first-teamers actually played the entire first half, yet didn't produce a touchdown until the sixth drive when they were facing the Packers' backups. Heck, they didn't even gain a single first down until the final play of the 1st quarter! As a result, I expect a very motivated team on Sunday. Cincinnati (1-1) has been outgained in both games so far and looked suspect on defense. I'm laying the points. 

Consider that the Redskins were actually bet to the role of favorite at Baltimore for the 1st preseason game! By comparison, this line offers tremendous value as they're at home. It would appear as if the consensus prognostication for this team is not all that rosy in 2017, but I think they're not bad (should finish at or around .500). You can debate Cousins' fair market value all you want, but he's a good QB by 2017 standards. The Redskins actually had one of the most efficient offenses in the league a year ago as only the Falcons and Saints gained more yards. The team was actually tied for second in YPP (yards per play) differential! Starters are again expected to play the entire first half (at least) here and with this being the final chance to impress the home fans before the regular season, I look for Washington to score a lot more points Sunday. 

It also helps that they're facing a Cincinnati defense that has looked suspect so far in the preseason. That they gave up only 12 points in the opener to Tampa Bay is misleading as the Bucs' first team offense had their way w/ them. Last week, they gave up 30 points to Kansas City, allowing them to score on each of the first five drives. Three different Chiefs' QB's threw touchdown passes against what remains a short-handed Bengals stop unit. Meanwhile, the Cincy offense could only manage four field goals and no touchdowns. Their only two TD's scored this preseason both came in the third quarter of the first game w/ Jeff Driskel under center. In many ways, this franchise finds itself at a crossroads entering 2017 as they are coming off a 6-9-1 season after making the playoffs each of the previous four years. 8* Washington

8* Over Browns/Bucs (7:30 ET): Neither of these teams have done much scoring the first two weeks of the preseason. Expect that to change here, however, as the third preseason game is the one that most closely resembles preseason play (starters play longer). Tampa Bay's offense is a lot better than its shown these first two games where they've scored only 12 points both times. Cleveland's defense is also probably a lot worse than its shown as they've gotten away w/ allowing a combined 16 points to the Saints and Giants. But remember that the Saints are w/o Drew Brees and the Giants have looked horrible so far and it didn't help that LW every NY receiver seemed to get injured. On a short week, it seems like the knee-jerk reaction would be to fade the Browns, but Over is the better call in my estimation. 

In their first preseason game, Tampa Bay faced Cincinnati. QB Jameis Winston, who is under a lot of pressure to produce big in his third season as a pro, looked great as he threw for 99 yds in just one quarter of play. He led a 14 play, 92 yard drive that resulted in a chip shot (as in 20-yd) field goal. It was a drive that probably should have ended in a TD, but an obvious pass interference call was missed. Last week, Winston looked solid again as he completed 21 of 29 passes for 196 yards. He also had what looked like it would be a 43 yard TD pass, dropped, by Mike Evans. The Bucs still ended up scoring on their first three drives though (1 TD, 2 FG). With Winston and the Bucs 1st team offense figuring to be in for at least a half here, I expect their biggest numbers to date. 

Cleveland is one of the few remaining teams with an open QB competition. It sure does appear as if the job is rookie DeShone Kizer's to lose. The Browns are learning fast something that the Broncos and Texans already know all too well ... Brock Osweiler simply isn't very good. But you can bet both signal callers, plus second year man Cody Kessler, will be out to impress the coaching staff here. As for that Browns defense, they are fortunate not to have given up more points as they have five turnovers to their credit. We've already established that the Tampa Bay offense will be the toughest they've faced to date. As for the Buccaneers defense, well, even as much of a work in progresss as the Browns offense is, it will be a tougher challenge than the Jaguars pathetic display last week. Also note that TB benefited from some awful Jacksonville playcalling a week ago. With the ball first and goal, the Jags for some reason decided to throw four consecutive fades w/ their third string QB. TB's offense will do the heavy lifting early and, if needed, the backup defenses will help push this one Over. 8* Over Browns/Buccaneers

10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): Few coaches have been more profitable this time of year (meaning the preseason) than Baltimore's John Harbaugh. With a 2-0 ATS (also 2-0 SU) start this year, he's now 25-13 against the number in his career. The Ravens have won all six preseason games the L2 seasons, the only team that can claim to be unbeaten during that time frame. If this all sounds like an endorsement for them this week, well, think again! As impressive as the resume may be, I'm not a huge fan of this team heading into 2017. QB Joe Flacco's ornerous contract has really hindered GM Ozzie Newsome's ability to construct a deep roster. Making matters worse, Flacco has yet to play this preseason ... or even practice. His status for the reg season opener remains questionable.

Now the Ravens haven't needed Flacco in the preseason as their defense has been incredible, holding Washington and Miami to 10 points and 258 yards - total. This Ravens' defense was very stout last year, particularly against the run, but they did slip late in the year and that played a role in the team missing the playoffs. Buffalo, very quietly, had the league's top rushing offense a year ago. So that's something to keep in mind here. I do not think the Ravens' defense will be as good as it was last year and certainly not as good as it's been the first two weeks of the preseason. Last week, they got to face a depleted Miami team that was breaking in Jay Cutler (came out of a retirement) for the first time. With no Flacco, the Ravens will have to lean heavily here on Ryan Mallett, who has been his usual horrible self in the preseason. His passer rating is 53.2, which ranks 93rd among all QB's that have seen action. He threw two INT's last week. Baltimore's offense does not impress me, nor should it impress anyone.

Buffalo is 0-2 SU/ATS this preseason, but has actually outgained both opponents. Last week saw them outgain the Eagles (in Philly), putting up over 400 total yds. But they couldn't get out of their own way (four turnovers) in a 20-16 loss. Full disclosure, despite trading away Sammy Watkins and the retirement of Anquan Boldin, I'm higher on this team than most. I think they were better than LY's 7-9 SU record. The problem is they were poorly coached (Rex Ryan). Ryan is gone (thankfully) and Sean McDermott is a 1st year HC still looking for a win. That should be a motivational edge here. QB Tyrod Taylor is better than he looked last week and backup Nathan Peterman (rookie) looked good in Week 1. In limited duty, RB LeSean McCoy looked explosive last week. Baltimore will be a popular play here, but taking the points is the way to go. 10* Buffalo

10* New England (7:00 ET): The Lions have opened the preseason 2-0 SU, also covering both games. But they've also had the good fortune of playing both the Colts (traditionally one of the worst preseason teams and w/o Andrew Luck) and the Jets (the consensus worst team in the league this year). Furthemore, while both victories came by double digit margins, neither was particularly impressive. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 0-2. That means nothing in the grand scheme of things, but you can bet it has Bill Belichick at least a tad bit more ornery than usual. With this being the week that most resembles regular season action (starters seeing most action), I give a huge edge to the Patriots, obviously a far more talented team than Detroit. Lay the short number. 

Despite Tom Brady playing only two series so far, the Patriots have put up 47 points, which is more than the Lions. Brady completed six of nine pass attempts last week, his first game action since the Super Bowl, and directed a touchdown drive. That bodes well for this week. The Pats' offense has severely out-first downed its two opponents thus far (50 total) and even w/o Brady put up 426 total yds of offense against Jacksonville in Wk 1 (lost 31-24). Last week, they outgained the Texans (339-281) w/ a 24-13 first down edge, but were undone by a -3 turnover ratio. After Brady inevitably leaves this game, he'll give way to Jimmy Garoppolo, who is a more than capable backup. Rob Gronkowski will also play here. One thing I can also guarantee is that after two sub-optimal efforts, Belichick will have his defense better prepared for Week 3. 

While New England enters the 2017 season as the Super Bowl favorite (what else is new?), I have Detroit regressing rather severely. Yes, the Lions did make the playoffs a season ago (at 9-7), but they had zero wins over fellow playoff teams. They were outscored by 32 points (including 26-6 playoff loss to Seattle) and the defense actually allowed the highest completion percentage in NFL history (Brady and Garoppolo have to be salivating!). Were it not for a record EIGHT fourth quarter comebacks, no way would this team have made the playoffs. This year, I believe they will end up as one of the worst teams in the NFC. Were this game to be played in the regular season, the line would clearly be far greater and thus there's some value considering New England's starters will see extended time plus they are the deeper team overall. 10* New England

10* Cleveland (8:00 ET): Saying last season was "bad" for the Browns would be an understatement of epic proportions. Not only were they 1-15 SU in the regular season, they lost all four preseason games as well (0-4 ATS!). In fact, prior to last week, this moribund franchise had lost 10 of its previous 12 exhibition contests. But led by rookie QB DeShone Kizer, they were able to beat the Saints, 20-14 as three-point home favorites. Cleveland gets to stay in the "Dawg Pound" this week for a nationally televised affair against the Giants, who lost their preseason opener 20-12, as 3.5-pt chalk, to Pittsburgh. Right now, it is the Browns that - clearly - have more to prove and I look for that to translate onto the field tonight as they win their second consecutive preseason game.

The Giants are in store for some major regression in 2017, at least from where I sit. Last year saw them go 8-3 SU in one-score games and finish w/ a point differential of just +26, which is more indicative of a 9-win team than an 11-win one. I've got them falling back to 7-9 (SU) for 2017 due to a variety of reasons. As I just made note of, they exceeded their Pythagorean win expectation (8.8) by over two games last year. So they were quite fortunate to go 11-5 SU. Only Houston had a larger difference between actual and Pythagorean wins last year. The defense made a massive jump from 30th in DVOA to 2nd, so that unit will regress. QB Eli Manning is now getting up there in years (he's 36!) and is in decline. Manning did not play last week and figures to only be on the field for a few series (at most) tonight. The QB's that did see time last week - Geno Smith, Davis Webb and Josh Johnson - hardly strike fear into my heart. 

The Browns do not yet know who will be their starting QB come Wk 1 of the regular season. Brock Osweiler (brought over from Houston via trade) is being given every opportunity, but he stinks and isn't long for the job anyway. Cody Kessler saw significant time under center LY, but was outplayed last week by the rookie Kizer, who finished up w/ 184 yds passing (including the GW TD). The organization probably doesn't want Kizer to be the starter just yet, but that doesn't mean he won't play well again. I also liked what I saw from the Browns defense LW as the two rookies - Myles Garrett and Jabril Peppers - both looked good. The Browns have also had an extra day to prepare for this game and like I said earlier, this being a national TV affair should only further motivate the team in front of its own fans. Unlike most teams in the league, Cleveland SHOULD care about winning in the preseason. 10* Cleveland

10* San Francisco (10:00 ET): This will be the first home game for the 49ers new coaching staff, led by Kyle Shanahan, the architect of the great Falcons offense we saw a year ago. Anyone who thinks Shanahan can come even remotely close to that kind of production w/ the personnel he inherits here ought to have their head examined. That beind said, the Niners gained an impressive 434 total yards in last week's 27-17 win over Kansas City, the most of any team in Week 1! And starting QB Brian Hoyer played only one series. So maybe Shanahan is onto something here. Certainly, he'll be "out for victory" again tonight as the Niners are in desperate need of impressing a fanbase that hasn't had much to cheer about since Jim Harbaugh left for Michigan. Lay the short number. 

Denver was also victorious in their first preseason game, 24-17, but they were outgained 363-281 and made a rookie (Mitchell Trubisky) look like the greatest Bears QB in multiple generations. This Broncos team has been carried the L2 years by an awesome defense, including to a win in Super Bowl 50 even as Peyton Manning's skills were deterioriating at a rapid rate. But I don't see that defense performing at the same level this year (DC Wade Phillips has left) and the team still has no answer at QB as neither Paxton Lynch nor Trevor Siemian has impressed. In fact, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see the Broncos finish in last place in the AFC West. They too have a 1st year HC, Vance Joseph, but he's likely more concerned w/ next week's home debut (against Green Bay) than he is w/ this game. 

While it was not the first team Denver defense that got torched by Trubisky last week, it's nevertheless concerning here. A rookie was able to come in and in his 1st NFL action complete 18 of 25 pass attempts for 166 yards and rush three times for 38 yards. Those numbers don't even tell the full story of how good the UNC product looked. So there's hope for the San Francisco QB's here. I also like how Shanahan stayed committed to running the ball last week as the offense finished w/ 188 yds on 36 carries. He should do the same again here as the Broncos defensive front is thin right now. The 49ers defense also kept the Chiefs under 200 total yds and forced a pair of turnovers. This time of year, it's the bad teams from the previous season that have more to prove and thus they tend to show more effort. The Broncos were lucky to even win last week as they scored two TD's late and got another (early) from the defense. 10* San Francisco

8* Over Packers/Redskins (7:30 ET): Washington is looking to atone for a poor first effort here as they lost to Baltimore last week, 23-3. Certainly they can't be any more inept offensively as they managed just 138 total yards against the Ravens. For all the chatter that continues to surround QB Kirk Cousins, the bottom line remains that there aren't many better options for the Redskins at this point. Elite signal callers rarely become available via free agency and anyone who watches College Football knows that the number of NFL-ready arms is minimal at best. Quietly, the Redskins had one of the most efficient offenses in the league a year ago, ranking #3 in the passing game and overall (trailing only Atlanta and New Orleans in both categories). I anticipate seeing more of Cousins in the second game and that should help this matchup vs. the Packers go Over the total.

Obviously, Green Bay is happy with its QB. Aaron Rodgers returns for his 10th year (already?!) as the starter and under his guidance, the Packers offense should again be one of the league's best. Now he sat out LW's 24-9 win over the Eagles, a game where the offense managed only one TD prior to the closing seconds. That drive was directed by Brett Hundley, who was 8 of 15 for 90 yards in one half of action. Hundley figures to start again here as Rodgers' only preseason action will come next week (no reason to risk injury). Hundley should do fine. But I'm a little more intrigued by the battle for the 3rd string job, between Joe Callahan and Taysom Hill. Callahan had a great preseason last year and was the leading passer last week. Hill came in late and directed a touchdown drive. It's unlikely the Pack will keep 4 QB's on its Opening Day roster, so both of those two are going to go all out to impress the coaching staff. 

Cousins was in for two series last week, both three and outs. In fact, the Redskins' offense gained just 47 total yds on its first 27 plays. You know that HC Jay Gruden is going to be looking for more in this second game. Fortunately, Green Bay's tackling last week left a lot to be desired. Washington's defensive performance last week also was not that great. They gave up 23 pts despite Ryan Mallett throwing for only 58 yards in the first half. That's not good. Green Bay has now gone Under in all five preseason games the last two seasons. They're the only team in the league w/o an Over during that stretch. That streak comes to an end Saturday night in the Nation's capital. 8* Over Packers/Redskins

8* Seattle (10:00 ET): Minnesota HC Mike Zimmer has found great success this time of year. Not only did his Vikings win LW, 17-10 at Buffalo, but they swept all four preseason games LY as well. He now carries a 12-2 SU/ATS record in preseason affairs into tonight's date w/ Seattle, but may have met his match in Seahawks HC Pete Carroll, who is now 19-9 ATS in the preseason after his team destroyed the Chargers LW, 48-17. Tonight is the Seahawks home debut, which always carries at least a little extra motivation and last week's performance - even w/ the backups in - showed me that Carroll's team isn't messing around. Lay the points.

Thanks in large part to the backups, the Seahawks rolled to a 48-17 win last week w/ a 458-322 edge in total yards. They also forced four turnovers. The backups being able to score so much is certainly encouraging. While the overall depth here might not be what it was in the team's Super Bowl season, Seattle remains one of the "teams to beat" in the NFC coming into 2017 and they certainly are in the position Minnesota wishes it was. I was encouraged by what I saw from Seahawks backup QB Trevone Boykin, who threw for 189 yards. We're likely to see more of RB Eddie Lacy tonight as Thomas Rawls suffered a "minor" ankle injury last week. Chris Carson has also looked good in training camp. 

Minnesota may have won last week, but did so despite being outgained by 67 yards. They managed just a field goal in the 1st half, a far cry from the 34 points Seattle put on the board in the 1H against the Chargers. To me, this Vikings team will continue to remain "average at best" as long as Sam Bradford remains the QB. I think replacing Adrian Peterson w/ rookie Dalvin Cook will end up as a net positive, but still the team barely gained 3.0 YPC last week against Buffalo. Finishing w/ only 152 yds passing isn't very impressive either, especially considering the majority of it came w/ third stringer Case Keenum in the game. I expect the Vikings offense to struggle again here and Zimmer to suffer a rare preseason defeat. 8* Seattle

10* LA Chargers (8:00 ET): We all know the NFL preseason carries little importance, but from the Chargers' perspective, this 1st game probably has some meaning. It's their first game in their new market and thus the first chance for HC Anthony Lynn (1st year HC!) to impress the fanbase. We saw a 1st year HC win his home debut last night (Rams' Sean McVay). I believe we'll see the same here. The Lightning Bolts have a lot to prove coming into 2017. Meanwhile, the same cannot be said for Seattle, a perennial contender that just wants to get the regular season healthy. Lay the short number. 

I'm going on the record right now, stating the Chargers will be vastly improved this year. Yes, I said the same last year and while they technically improved (4 to 5 wins), it was quite neglible. But now with a new coach and in a new market, a far larger jump in the standings could be forthcoming. Really, how could it not? Over the last two seasons, they have a mind-numbing 11 blown fourth quarter leads while ranking among the most injured teams in the sport. They were 1-8 SU in games decided by seven points or less last season. Their Pythagorean win expectation for last year was actually 7.7. All of the above factors clearly point to upward mobility this year because, if anything, we know these metrics will tend to always regress/progress to the mean. 

QB Philip Rivers is set to play one series tonight while the rest of the team's starters may play two. One key for Rivers is that - despite a new head coach - there is some continuity on the coaching staff as Ken Whisenhunt was retained as the OC. On the Seattle side, there's a number of injuries, mostly at wide receiver w/ Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett both out tonight. I just think this is a very important spot for a 1st year HC, in front of a new fanbase, and the line move seems to agree with me. This game means nothing to Seattle; the Chargers need to get the season started on a positive note. 10* LA Chargers

8* Arizona (10:00 ET): This will be preseason game #2 for the Cardinals, who lost the Hall of Fame Game 20-18 to Dallas. While a loss, there's little takeaway from that game as none of the starters played. Honestly, if there was a takeaway, it was a positive one as QB Blaine Gabbert (much maligned most of his career) played well, engineering a pair of touchdown drives which got the Cards out to an early 15-0 lead (successful 2-pt conversion). Traditionally, coming off the H.O.F. Game has been an advantage in Game #2 as you're (obviously) playing an opponent that is only seeing "real" game action for the first time. There's been a sharp line move here and I agree w/ it. Lay the points. 

Spoiler alert: I will NOT be as high on Oakland as everyone else this season. Derek Carr leading a Silver and Black renaissance last year was a really nice story, but the team was extremely fortunate to go 8-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less while finishing tied (w/ KC) for the league's best turnover margin (+16). Carr is not as good as his fans would like you to believe. Of course, we shouldn't expect to see much of Carr tonight anyway. While Raiders' fans will be happy that their franchise signal caller is not in harm's way, they can also tell you how severe the drop off is beyond Carr at the position. Look no further than LY's Wild Card game at Houston where they were forced to start Connor Cook. Cook is still in the fold this year and figures to get the majority of the snaps tonight before giving way to the disaster that is EJ Manuel. 

Raiders HC Jack Del Rio (one of the game's best) is already on the record as saying he "isn't concerned" w/ seeing his front line players take the field tonight. That happens to include new RB Marshawn Lynch, who I believe will prove to be an overrated acquisition. Speaking of good coaches, Arizona's Bruce Arians is going to cede control of the playcalling in this game to QB coach Byron Leftwich, who is actually younger than starting QB Carson Palmer. People forget that at this time last season, Arizona was being talked about as a possible Super Bowl contender. They had a very disappointing 7-8-1 SU season, but I expect them to bounce back into playoff contention here in 2017. 8* Arizona

8* Jacksonville (7:35 ET): Expectations are through the roof for the Patriots this year (when aren't they?) as oddsmakers have installed their season win total at a lofty 12.5 w/ some even going so far as to call for another perfect regular season (did so back in '07). To me, the idea of them running the table again seems unlikely, but regardless, the majority of the key components that make this team so good won't be a factor in Thursday night's preseason opener against Jacksonville. These teams have been practicing against one another the last couple days, so they should be somewhat familiar w/ one another at this point. There's been a sharp line move in the direction of the underdog here and that's a big reason why I'm taking the points.

Jacksonville was a "chic" breakout pick for 2016, but they wound up being favored in only three games and finished 3-13 SU (wouldn't you know it?). Believe it or not, I believe they'll improve markedly this season under Doug Marrone, who has shed the interim tag. Predecessor Gus Bradley could never win here, but he quietly built a pretty decent defense, one that I feel will outperform expectations this season. The ceiling for this team though remains tied to QB Blake Bortles, who took a major step BACK last season. I loved the drafting of RB Leonard Fournette (LSU), which will take pressure off the mistake prone Bortles. Veteran QB Chad Henne figures to get a bulk of the snaps tonight.

The Pats did go 3-1 in the preseason last year (while the Jags were 1-3), but there is no denying which team should view the game as more important. Hint: It's not the perennial Super Bowl contender. The spread obviously opened too high and sharps jumped all over it. While I wish I would have acted quicker than I did, the bottom line is taking more than a field goal seems like a good value with what should be the more motivated side. 8* Jacksonville

10* Buffalo (7:00 ET): The "vaunted" preseason reputation of the Vikings appears to have preceded itself here as the betting public - likely aware of the team's 12-1 SU record this time of year - has moved them to the role of favorite. But that's in spite of one my own personal favorite preseason angles, that being taking a 1st year HC in his home debut. This is our first shot at seeing Sean McDermott's Buffalo Bills, a team I will likely be much higher on than most in 2017. The Bills were a better team than they showed throughout the failed tenure of predecessor Rex Ryan and w/ this being McDermott's initial shot at being able to impress the fanbase, I expect him to go for the win. Not a fan of road favorites in the preseason. 

Minnesota started out last year 5-0 SU/ATS and did so despite being w/o their starting QB, Teddy Bridgewater. Sam Bradford would go on to set a NFL record for completion percentage in 2016, but don't put much stock into that as completion percentage is way up across the board in the modern NFL plus Bradford is a checkdown machine who too often fails to get the ball downfield. The Vikings would close the season by winning only 3 of their final 11 games. Most unfortunate for them is the severity of the Bridgewater injury as he's unlikely to play much, if at all, this season. That means the underwhelming Bradford will again the run the show on offense, but for tonight's purposes, that will be for only a few snaps. The Vikings' backups at the QB position are Case Keenum and Taylor Heinicke, neither of whom I'd want to put my money on. I know HC Mike Zimmer has shown a propensity to take these games seriously, but we've reached the point in his tenure where that is likely to lessen.

Meanwhile, McDermott is inheriting a Bills team that went 7-9 SU last year and hasn't made the playoffs since 1999 (longest active streak in the league!). But they have a great shot at finishing in second in the AFC East this year as both the Dolphins and Jets figure to be among the worst teams in the league and that could result in four wins right there. (Note: Buffalo was 0-4 against the Dolphins & Jets LY). The team just signed veteran WR Anquan Boldin to bolster the offense, but the player to keep an eye on both here and moving forward is Zay Jones, who set a NCAA record for receptions at East Carolina. Offensive starters are expected to play about a quarter tonight, which is a fair amt of time for the 1st preseason game, a signal to me that McDermott really wants to win his 1st try as a pro coach. 10* Buffalo

8* Carolina (7:30 ET): Houston was very fortunate to not only win the AFC South last year, but even finish at 9-7 SU. They were outscored by 49 points, a differential indicative of a 6.5 win team. Their average loss came by an average of nearly two touchdowns per game (three by 18+ pts) and their lone win that came by more than a TD was by nine points over a bad Bears team. Now the return of JJ Watt to the fold as well as the drafting of QB DeShaun Watson may lead you to believe that the team's overall level of play may improve in 2017. That may be true, but expect them to win fewer games.

Carolina went from 15-1 SU and a Super Bowl appearance in '15 all the way down to 6-10 SU and out of the playoffs last year. But despite that record, they actually owned a slightly better point differential (-33) than the Texans. The Panthers are all but assured of improving in the win column this year and don't be surprised if they challenge Atlanta for the NFC South title. I liked the drafting of RB Christian McCaffery, which gives QB Cam Newton a new weapon to work with, plus the team will likely perform better in close games than last year's ugly 2-6 record in games decided by a field goal or less.

Houston won all four of its preseason games last year, but I don't think for a second that they'll be matching that record here in 2017. All three of their QB's - Tom Savage, Watson and Brandon Weeden - are expected to play tonight w/ Savage starting. Savage and Weeden are both lost causes at this stage of their respective careers and I think it would be foolish to expect much from Watson in his first NFL game. As for Carolina, Cam Newton won't play at all, but McCaffery and many other offensive regulars will. Coming off a season like the Panthers had last year, I think it's important to win the first one in front of the home crowd and I can't understand why this line has moved in the direction it has. 8* Carolina

8* Dallas (8:00 ET): The Cowboys were a lock to improve last year, no matter who the QB was. Now the initial thought is that a returning Tony Romo (missed most of '15) would be an obvious improvement over the terrible play the team got under center from Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel. However, enthusiam quickly had to be tempered when Romo was lost (again) in the preseason. But what no one foresaw was rookie Dak Prescott coming in and leading the team to a 13-3 SU record (top record in NFC). Now there is no doubt Dallas will win FEWER games in 2017 (what a difference a year makes!), but that doesn't matter here in the preseason. I do like them to win (and cover) tonight's HOF Game in Canton, Ohio.

Arizona is a team that regressed in 2016. Ironically, it was they (and not the Cowboys) that were supposed to be one of the top teams in the NFC last year. They were coming off their own 13-3 SU finish in '15 when they made it to (and got crushed in) the NFC Champ Game. Instead, they slipped down to 7-8-1, even though they actually outscored the opposition by 56 pts over the course of the season. Expect them to win more games this year. Long-term, an heir apparent for Carson Palmer must be found. I'll tell you who is NOT the man for that job - Blaine Gabbert - who will start this HOF Game. Gabbert is expected to play the entirety of the first half here, not a good sign considering he has been one of the worst QB's since coming into the league back in '11.

According to HC Bruce Arians, no starters will even suit up here for the Cardinals. Even backup QB Drew Stanton isn't expected to play. After Gabbert, it will be undrafted rookie Trevor Knight coming in under center. Even against what will likely be a pretty "vanilla" defense, I can't see the Cardinals scoring many points tonight. Reportedly, it was just a few days ago that the Cardinals had an "awful" practice (Arians' words). Now Dallas isn't going to play any of its starters either, but Kellen Moore is probably a more serviceable QB than Gabbert at this point. The Cowboys are also the deeper of these two teams right now. Were this a regular season game, I'd consider the Cardinals, but it's preseason and I'll side w/ "America's Team." 8* Dallas

10* New Orleans (8:00 ET): The Saints are one of just four teams (Browns, Bears, Cardinals) w/o a win this preseason. Still, they are favored tonight at home to beat Baltimore, despite the Ravens coming in at 3-0. That may seem odd to you, but the "sharp money" is definitely on New Orleans here as we've actually seen the line get bet up, which you normally wouldn't think would be the case. Ravens' HC John Harbaugh has been critical of the preseason schedule, specifically the number of games played, after he lost two players to injury last week. One of them, starting TE Benjamin Watson, is now out for the year. Thus, I don't think Harbaugh really cares about winning this game, rather he just wants to get through it. Lay the points.

New Orleans, on the other hand, probably should want to win tonight. No team wants to go winless in the preseason as there actually is a correlation there w/ not making the playoffs. The Saints figure to be not very good in 2016, but this is still a home game. QB Drew Brees has said he isn't sure of what the team's plans are for playing time tonight, but the indication is that he will be on the field. This would be the first time Brees has suited up for a preseason finale in 10 years. The Saints lost here at home to Pittsburgh last week, 27-14, allowing Steelers QB's to complete 31 of 39 pass attempts for 342 yards! I can't see the Ravens being that proficient in the passing game here. Joe Flacco may very well not even play.

While Baltimore is 3-0 so far in the preseason, two of the wins came by three points or less. They were slight underdogs in both and actually outgained (326-251) in a 19-18 upset at Indianapolis, their only other road game. Certainly, they looked good in LW's 30-9 beatdown of Detroit. But that was w/ Flacco leading a scoring drive. All indications are that starters won't even play tonight. Consider that the Ravens are thinking about starting an all-rookie left side of the offensive line this year. That should tell you about the backups. Second year WR Breshad Perriman will make his debut tonight, but that won't mean much. Meanwhile, a win for the Saints in front of their fans would probably go a long way. 10* New Orleans

8* NY Giants (7:00 ET): The Giants host the Patriots in the final week of preseason and suffice to say the stakes won't be nearly as high as the two Super Bowls where these teams faced off. New England is 3-0 entering tonight's game, but it's the next four, not these four games that have Bill Belichick's attention. That's because they open the regular season w/o Tom Brady (suspended) for the first four weeks. If they can win three or more of those games, then you might as well pencil this team in for another AFC East title (they've won 13 of the last 15, including seven straight). As for the Giants, they have a 1st year HC (Ben McAdoo) and are looking to improve upon LY's 6-10 finish. They should be the more motivated side this evening.

The G-Men finally got into the win column last week w/ a 21-20 win in the annual preseason clash vs. the Jets. The ATS result of that game will depend on when you bet and the shop. We do know that the Giants failed to cover each of the first two preseason games, including an embarrassing 21-0 loss at Buffalo in Week 2. They lost the home opener 27-10 to Miami. In each of those first two games, they had four turnovers. This is McAdoo's last shot at impressing the faithful before the start of the regular season. Something tells me he'll make the most of the opportunity. The Giants are also a team w/ several position battles still going on, so players should be motivated as well.

There are some rumblings that Tom Brady may play tonight. Even if he does, it will be limited time and I don't think it will affect the outcome of the game. For the record, Brady has not taken a snap in a preseason finale since 2011. Though the Patriots won last week, 19-17 at Carolina, they were outgained 345-291 and benefited from a +3 turnover margin. If the Giants can protect the ball in this game, I see them winning.  Lay the points. 8* NY Giants

10* San Diego (1:00 ET): So far this week, I've gone 3-0 in NFLX. While I'm certainly grateful for that, it's not like that's something that hasn't happened before. But somewhat uncharactertistically, I've gone 3-0 while betting all favorites. For Sunday though, I'm back to taking the points as this line is simply way too high for a preseason game. It's not w/o precedent, however, as this reminds me of a play I had in Week 1 w/ Dallas plus the points against the Rams. There, we took advantage of the public fervor surrounding the NFL's return to LA. Here, it's a case of Minnesota playing for the first time in their new stadium. Again, it's just way too many points to be laying in the preseason. Take the points.

The Vikings are 2-0 thus far, winning a pair of low-scoring affairs. In both games, however, they were actually outgained. Week 1 at Cincinnati, they faced a first team defense for only three plays, yet gained only 274 yds total (only 56 yds rushing) while allowing 339. Last week in Seattle, with a total yardage deficit of 327-258, they won the game on an INT return in the final 90 seconds. I realize that Minnesota, coming off an 11-5 season where they won the NFC North, is getting a lot of praise and hype coming into 2016. But I wouldn't be surprised if the team ends up falling a little bit shy of expectations. As for tonight's game, remember, they too have to adjust to the new surroundings.

After being embarrassed by Tennessee in Week 1 (lost 27-10), the Chargers bounced back with a convincing 19-3 win over Arizona last week. Like Minnesota, they've had more than a full week to prepare for this "dress rehearsal" game. Spoiler alert; I have San Diego as a "breakout" team for 2016 as anything that could go wrong, did, in 2015. They should enjoy better fortune this season in both the injury department and as far as record in close games. I'm not sure if it's the Vikings home debut or the negative press surrounding Joey Bosa (still unsigned), but this line has become far too inflated. But the way, Adrian Peterson (as per usual) will not be suiting up for the home team. 10* San Diego

8* Denver (9:00 ET): At this point, almost every team in the league knows who its starting QB will be for the regular season. The Super Bowl Champion Broncos are not among those teams. All of a sudden, Peyton Manning in decline doesn't look so bad as the triumvirate of Mark Sanchez, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch has seen no one step forward. But this being the preseason, all three will continue to get their shot and I feel that works to the team's advantage in these final two games. Theoretically, we should be getting inspired play under center for the full duration of the game tonight against a Rams team that should consider itself fortunate to be 2-0 in preseason play. I'm laying the points in this one.

I actually played against the Rams in their preseason opener. It was the much anticipated return of the NFL to Los Angeles as they were being asked to lay a pretty sizable number to the Cowboys. Early on, things did not look good for LA as Dallas jumped out to a 24-7 halftime lead. But the Rams' reserves were able to rally in the second half for a 28-24 victory. Still, I got the cover. Last week, the Rams were outgained 390-264 yet still came away w/ a one-point (21-20) victory over the Chiefs, which was another home game. Obviously, all the focus tonight will continue to be on rookie QB Jared Goff. After a pretty bad debut vs. Dallas, the #1 overall DC did complete 8 of 12 passes vs. Kansas City. But this will be the best defense he's seen to date. I also don't have much regard for this Rams team come the regular season.

Speaking of the regular season, Denver is a clear candidate to regress. They enjoyed tremendous good fortune en route to winning the Super Bowl, most notably going 11-3 SU in one-score games (3-0 in OT!). Any and all success is likely again contingent on Wade Phillips' defense. The QB situation is what's important here though as Siemian will start for the first time. He'll obviously be highly motivated in his shot to win the starting job. Backing him up will be the rookie Lynch, followed by the veteran Sanchez. I actually think Sanchez "bringing up the rear" is really great as we'll have someone with plenty of experience in the game late. While I played against the Broncos last week (outright winner on SF!), they still gained over 400 yds total offense. They also did win the opener, 22-0 over Chicago. 8* Denver

10* Tampa Bay (8:00 ET): It was not a good start to the preseason for either of these two teams. Cleveland gained only 172 total yards in a 17-11 loss at Green Bay where they actually closed as a slight favorite. Tampa Bay's Week 1 result was a 17-9 loss at Philadelphia where they turned the ball over five times. But while the Browns lost again in Week 2, the Bucs bounced back w/ an outright win at Jacksonville, 27-21 as three-point pups. While the defense allowed two Blake Bortles' TD passes in the first three drives, Tampa had the lead by halftime and wound up outgaining the Jags 377-209. Meanwhile, Cleveland's defense was absolutely lit up by Atlanta for 496 total yds, an astronomical number in the preseason considering who was playing. I'll lay the points here.

The Browns are projected to be one of the worst teams in all of football this year. Certainly, they have the most pessimistic forecast among AFC squads. The big news for them coming into Week 3 is that both WR's - Josh Gordon and Corey Coleman - are expected to play Friday. That makes this a "Baylor reunion" of sorts w/ new QB Robert Griffin III. But considering this will be the first time the trio has all played together, expect a learning curve. I do not anticipate the first team offense to be "firing on all cylinders" here. Even if they were to perform better than expected, there's still the matter of the defense, which has surrendered a horrendous amount of rushing yards (375!) through two games. This is nothing new in Cleveland as LY saw this unit rank 30th against the run (128.4 YPG). So far, the opposition has chosen to run against the Browns a total of 82 times.

Tampa Bay jumped from 2 to 6 wins LY and will be expected to make another jump in their first year under new HC Dirk Koetter, who previously served here as the OC and has second year QB Jameis Winston at his disposal. Given what I discussed with the Browns defense, the Bucs should have no problem running the ball in this game w/ Doug Martin or whomever lines up in the backfield. The Tampa defense has actually been very good in the first two games, allowing an average of just 198 YPG, including 85.5 on the ground. Rookie CB Vernon Hargreaves has been a standout. This is Koetter's first home game, so winning here would mean something to him, especially w/ a fanbase angry over the drafting of a now struggling kicker (Roberto Aguayo) in the second round.  10* Tampa Bay

10* Seattle (10:00 ET): When it comes to "preseason cache," Seattle's Pete Carroll certainly seems to have it while Dallas' Jason Garrett does not. That said, Garrett's Cowboys are 2-0 ATS this preseason and cashed for me in the opener as they were big six-point underdogs at Los Angeles. Last week in "Jerry World" they rolled to an impressive 41-14 win over Miami. But they're still not getting much respect from the oddsmakers in Week 3 as they face Seattle. While I've twice made the case that teams "should" not be laying this many points in the preseason (and gone 2-0 ATS as a result!), Week 3 is a little different and Garrett still remains just 9-14 ATS all-time in preseason games. Meanwhile, Carroll is 23-15. Lay the points!

While Dallas rolled to 41 points last week, Seattle has scored just 38 pts - total - in two games. But despite losing at home on Thursday, 18-11 to Minnesota, the 'Hawks did outgain the Vikes 327-258. After falling into an 11-0 at halftime, they rallied to tie the game, but then lost as rookie Trevone Boykin (TCU) threw a pick-six in the final two minutes. I don't think you can read too much into that loss. If anything, the team should be motivated by playing another game at home. This is of course the week where we'll see the most of the starters and w/ the Seahawks that's clearly a good thing as I project them to be the top team in the league during the regular season! Judging from the line move, it appears as if "sharp" money is on them.

Dallas figures to be an improved bunch in 2016, but keeping QB Tony Romo healthy remains priority #1. I wouldn't be surprised if Romo plays a little bit less than we're used to seeing in the third week of preseason. Yes, the emerging Dak Prescott may end up providing the team a luxury at backup they have not enjoyed in many years. But the rookie has never seen a defense like Seattle's. I also don't expect much from another Cowboys' rookie, RB Ezekiel Elliot, either as he will be making his pro debut. For the Seahawks, QB Russell Wilson and the first team will apparently play into the second half. I think it's telling that Wilson and co would be favored so prohibitively against a team that just won 41-14. 10* Seattle

10* San Francisco (9:00 ET): Needless to say, Chip Kelly's debut w/ the 49ers didn't go according to script. He lost at home, 24-13 to the Texans. However, if you go back and watch the game, you'll find that it actually DID get off to a good start for San Francisco. They led 13-7 at halftime and that was w/o Colin Kaepernick even playing. Blaine Gabbert looked satisfactory as he makes his case to be the starter. He threw a touchdown pass in the first quarter. Kaepernick won't play again here, but that's just fine by me as the Niners outgained the Texans 409-265 w/o him last week and as was the case when I played Dallas LW against the Rams, this is a case of the line being way too high for a preseason game. Take the points.

Denver dominated in its preseason opener, shutting out the Bears 22-0. As was the case for all of last year, the defense led the way in allowing only 126 yards total. But I don't think we'll be seeing that kind of domination again here. Looking ahead to the regular season, I don't see the Broncos matching LY's success or win total. Yes, Peyton Manning wasn't very good in his final season, but I don't see his replacement - whether that's Mark Sanchez or Trevor Siemian - getting the job done. Siemian will get the start tonight, his first time ever being in that role. On the other side of the ball, it will be very difficult for Denver's defense to match last year's numbers. I look for Kelly to push the pace against them tonight, something that no defense wants to see this time of year.

The 49ers are obviously going to be one of the worst teams in football this year. But a new coach always wants to get that first win and that's the key here. Denver has nothing to prove here.I really liked that San Francisco was able to run for 236 yards last week. A -2 turnover differential is what lost them the game. If they can clean that issue up, then I see no reason why the team can't cover this number, which again is far too generous for this time of year.  10* San Francisco

8* Under Panthers/Titans (3:00 ET): Last season saw the Panthers become just the SIXTH team in league history to go 15-1 in the regular season. But of course, there would be another loss to come, this one in Super Bowl 50 and that's what everyone is going to remember. To me, Carolina is an OBVIOUS case to regress this year as they benefited from some pretty good fortune last year, namely an 8-1 record in games decided by one possession. There was also the matter of them averaging 11.7 yards per point, which in retrospect is a shocking number that cannot be sustained. They led the league in scoring (31.3 PPG) despite not even being top 10 in yards per game! Though still favored to win a fourth straight NFC South crown (only 7 teams since '02 have won four straight division titles), I'd be wary of betting this team come the regular season.

As for Tenessee, we find them at the opposite end of the spectrum. They finished tied for the worst record in the league last year (3-13 SU) and have the fewest wins over the last two years as well (7). They are just 41-71 SU the L7 years, the fifth worst record during that time, so this is a franchise that's been bad for a while now. While there are still clear holes on the roster, the biggest position of need was addressed last year w/ the drafting of QB Marcus Mariota. Keeping Mike Mularkey as head coach seems uninspired, but I think that if only for the simple "law of averages," this team will win more games than expected in 2016. They play in a weak division and an awful 3-11 SU record in one-score games the L2 years is due to get better.

As for this afternoon's preseason affair, I'd be stunned if we saw a repeat of the Titans' performance from last week where they amassed 437 total yards en route to a 27-10 win over San Diego. They figure to keep Mariota out of harm's way and his backups - Alex Tanney and Matt Cassel - will hardly put any fear into opponents. Carolina's starters reportedly will play only three series. Tight end Greg Olsen is out. The running game was virtually non-existent last week, producing only 81 yards on 30 carries and 39 of them came on one scramble from backup QB Joe Webb. Under is the play here. 8* Under Panthers/Titans

8* Washington (7:30 ET): The Jets won for me last week (beat the Jaguars 17-13) even though they were outgained 415-284 and didn't score a touchdown after halftime. In fact, a Jets field goal accounted for the lone points scored in the second half of that one. With starters again likely to see minimal action, I'm a lot "cooler" on the J-E-T-S this week as they head to the Nation's Capital to face a Washington team looking to rebound from a 23-17 loss at Atlanta in their preseason opener. While the 'Skins gained only 234 yards of total offense themselves, they very nearly pulled off a rally after falling into an early 23-3 hole. I imagine HC Jay Gruden is going to be looking for better play out of his charges this week. Lay the points. 

People seem to be forgetting that Washington won its division a year ago. While they did so w/ a worse record than the Jets (who didn't make the playoffs) and regression is probably in store for 2016, I still like the Skins' short-term and long-term prospects more. Their issue last season was a defense that ranked 28th in yards per game. That was addressed by bringing in CB Josh Norman via free agency. Another Josh, rookie WR Doctson, should become a favorite of QB Kirk Cousins, who had a breakout season in 2015. After Cousins comes out tonight, we have Colt McCoy and Nate Sudfeld at QB. McCoy has been a starter in this league and Sudfeld was pretty effective last week in completing 67% of his passes in "mop-up" duty.

There's a reason why Jets fans were so desperate to re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick. The alternative at starter would have been Geno Smith and on his first two drives last week, Smith showed what a dicey proposition he is w/ a pair of three and outs. I don't expect much out of Bryce Petty. Behind him is a rookie, Christian Hackenberg.  Had they not allowed a kick return at the start of the second half, Washington would have won last week. Being called for 14 penalties was an issue as well and I expect that to be rectified. Redskins starters are expected to play the first quarter. Of note from LW's Jets game is that the defense allowed a 68.6 completion percentage at 9.1 yards per attempt. 8* Washington

10* Cleveland (8:00 ET): The Browns' lost Hue Jackson's debut on Friday, 17-11 at Green Bay. Curiously, they were bet heavily in the hours leading up to kickoff and actually closed as the favorite in most shops. This was because the Packers announced that both Aaron Rodgers and primary backup Brett Hundley would sit. That ended up not mattering as it was Cleveland's offense gaining only 172 total yards. The most strange thing of all from that game, however, is that there were three safeties! The only TD that the Browns defense allowed came w/ only seven seconds remaining in the first half. The only other points they allowed came on a pair of 54-yard Mason Crosby field goals. So, it was a solid performance on that side of the ball and I'll call for Jackson's offense to be better tonight. Lay the points.

It goes w/o saying that Cleveland projects to be one of the worst teams in the league this year. But that doesn't matter in preseason. The team should be fired up to win Jackson's first home game. The new HC has a rep of being an "offensive guru" and as an aside, I think the Bengals will really miss him. Something to note from last week's game in Green Bay, ICYMI, is that new QB Robert Griffin III did lead one good drive, only to be intercepted at the goal line. The Browns wound up still getting safety out of it, but had they gotten the five more points, it would have been a much different game and result perhaps. RGIII figures to get more reps tonight.

Atlanta won its preseason opener, 23-17 over Washington, thanks to strong second and third quarters.  It was backup QB Matt Schaub that led three scoring drives. This is Schaub's second stint w/ the team as he previously backed up Mike Vick in what must seem like a previous lifetime. But I wouldn't look for that kind of performance again here or on any regular basis. The Falcons are now 3-2 ATS in the preseason under HC Dan Quinn, but having won the opener and a dress rehearsal on deck, I don't expect much emphasis on winning this game coming from their sideline. It will be a different story with Cleveland, who likely looks to both start and finish strong. 10* Cleveland

10* San Francisco (7:00 ET): This would be Chip Kelly's home debut with the Niners. That situation (taking a new HC in his 1st home game) has so far netted me one win (Eagles) and one loss (Giants). I view the Niners' situation as more like the Eagles though as they too figure to be a pretty bad team in 2016. But winning the first preseason game, at home, for your new head coach can go a long way in at least building some confidence for the upcoming campaign. In his three (admittedly tumultuous) years in Philadelphia, Kelly never had a losing record in the preseason and finished 7-5 SU overall (3-1 last year). His record against the spread is the same. I'll lay the points here with the 49ers, who should be out to make a bit of a "statement" in Kelly's first home game.

Houston won its division last year (AFC South), but did so almost by default as the other three teams all finished 8-8 or worse. The big story in the offseason was bringing in former Denver QB Brock Osweiler, who of course subbed for an injured and ineffective Peyton Manning at times last season. The hype around Osweiler has gotten to be a bit much from where I sit as it remains to be seen how well he can perform as a starter for a full 16 game season. Of course, the reason the Texans went out and got Osweiler is because they won IN SPITE of their quarterbacks last year. Brian Hoyer is now gone, but the backups are still Brandon Weeden and Tom Savage, a dreadful duo. So once Osweiler gives way tonight, it will probably be some pretty lousy play under center for HC Bill O'Brien. The Texans also have three starting offensive linemen out for this game, not to mention JJ Watt and Jadeveon Clowney will be missing from the defense.

San Francisco may not have Colin Kaepernick at their disposal tonight. That's okay as I view his absence as potentially overrated. It's not like he would play much anyway. Kaepernick's absence does create a situation where Blaine Gabbert now has a chance to impress the new coaching staff and win the starting job. Gabbert is by no means Joe Montana or Steve Young (or even Jeff Garcia or Alex Smith), but I view him as key to this play as he should be the most motivated signal-caller on the field Sunday night. 10* San Francisco

10* Dallas (8:00 ET): Yes, I'm well aware of the shortcomings of Cowboys' HC Jason Garrett in the preseason. Among the league's active head coaches, he has the worst ATS win percentage this time of year at 7-14. But that and the fact tonight marks the NFL's "official" return to Los Angeles have conspired to make this line a lot higher than it ought to be. With all the hoopla surrounding the Rams return the West Coast, a significant point has been missed and that's this is probably one of the worst teams in the entire league. We saw Carson Wentz struggle for Philadelphia in his pro debut on Thursday. I would expect the same here from the QB drafted right ahead of him, Jared Goff.  Take the points.

Dallas should not be the only ones maligned for their preseason record here. The Rams went 0-4 last year and got outscored by an average of 11.2 points per game. They averaged just 12.0 PPG. That and what unfolded in the regular season paved the way for the drafting of Goff, but I'd expect very little from the #1 overall DC on Saturday night. That probably means a lot of Case Keenum (ugh!) and then Sean Mannion and Dylan Thompson, neither of whom are "anything to write home about either." Yes, one would think the Rams will be motivated to win this game in front of their new (and old?) fans. But it still should be a pretty vanilla game plan from Jeff Fisher and I wouldn't want to be laying this many points in the first preseason game.

As it stands now, this is biggest pointspread for the week. Dallas lost its backup QB (Kellen Moore) to a season-ending injury, but keep an eye on rookie Dak Prescott, who starred at Mississippi State. I would not be surprised to see him be the "breakout star" of tonight's game. I think the line move here is an overreaction as Fisher is the second worst active coach in preseason games (ATS) at 19-25. I'm simply not impressed with the job Fisher has done with the Rams as it's been four losing seasons. The only other coach since 1970 to retain his job after starting a tenure w/ that many consecutive losing campaigns was David Shula in Cincinnati and the next year he started 1-6 SU and got fired. Remember that Rams players have to adjust to the new stadium as well. 10* Dallas

8* NY Giants (7:00 ET): Similar to the 10* play on the Eagles last night, I'm going w/ another NFC East squad with a 1st year HC here. That being the Giants, who begin the Ben McAdoo era after a decade-plus of "Camp Coughlin." Truth be told, Coughlin's act had probably grown tired and while he absolutely must be commended for bringing home two Super Bowls during his time here, the Giants clearly had plateaued in recent seasons. I actually expect a bit of breakthrough under McAdoo, especially offensively, and the defense should be better as well. Lay the points here against a Miami team that's also starting over (Adam Gase's 1st year here), but they won't actually play a home game until Week 4 of the preseason (Game #3 vs. Atlanta is in Orlando).

The Dolphins aren't just a bad team; they're a bad franchise. Ownership has proven to be too meddlesome and interesting in "winning the offseason." Since 2005, they've had just one winning season and that came in '08. Since then, they've won between 6 and 8 games every year. Sadly, 2016 shapes up to be possibly the worst season in a while as Gase is inheriting a mess on both sides of the ball.  Reports said the offense looked absolutely terrible in last weekend's scrimmage. In eight drives, they gained just one first down. That's starters and backups combined. HC Gase said it appeared as if the team was going through a "walk through." At no point did they cross midfield and the offensive line gave up five sacks. That was to a defense, which remains far too "stars and scrubs" for my tastes.

As was the case yday w/ the Eagles and Doug Pederson, the Giants will want to win here as this is the first time playing in front of their fans w/ McAdoo calling the shots. Remember though, McAdoo was the OC here last season, so he has a better grasp on his team than Gase does. Reportedly, he has his offense playing at a fast tempo in practice and that could catch the Dolphins' vanilla defense napping on multiple occasions. Defensively, Olivier Vernon looks like a solid add for the G-Men as he has reportedly been dominant in practice. The Giants are the better team anyway here and have more to prove. 8* NY Giants

    

8* NY Jets (7:30 ET): A case can be made that the Jets were the best team NOT to make the playoffs in 2015. They went 10-6, outscoring opponents by 73 pts over the course of the season. To put that point differential in perspective, no other non-playoff team was better than +20. But in year #2 under HC Todd Bowles, I expect regression to hit the Flyboys. They were able to resign QB Ryan Fitzpartick, but he's come into camp late. That all being said, playing at home in the preseason opener, I like the J-E-T-S here as I expect their other QB's will want to impress the coaching staff and that should be enough in a game where both sides likely keep it pretty vanilla.

I think Jacksonville is the classic trendy team that will ultimately fail to live up to expectations. Blake Bortles just isn't as good as some people think he is and that disconnect will lead to some value in fading the Jags throughout 2016. I think the optimism even works against this team in the preseason. There's some real offensive line issues going on right now as Kelvin Beachum is unlikely to play and Josh Wells has a broken thumb. Starting the preseason w/ a lack of depth along the offensive line could be problematic and Bowles, who likes to blitz, may choose to do so here. I know Jacksonville is paying lip service to the idea of "starting fast," but this still a four quarter game where the outcome is likely to be determined by backups.

Even with Fitzpatrick back in the fold, I expect Geno Smith to look to impress the Jets coaching staff. The same goes for a pair of young QB's as well, Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenburg. Other than the newly acquired Matt Forte, it seems as if most Jets notables will see some time tonight. The Jets won both of their preseason home games last year. One receiver to keep an eye on here is Jalin Marshall, an undrafted rookie out of Ohio State that has looked very good in camp.  For as much as is being made out of the Jacksonville offense, they averaged only 17.5 PPG LY in the preseason. 8* NY Jets

    

10* Philadelphia (7:00 ET): This is the home debut for new Eagles' HC Doug Pederson. If you're at all familiar w/ my "handicapping style" in the preseason, then you're probably aware that I often like to take 1st year head coaches in their first home game. The rationale is both logical and simple. It's the first chance to garner support from fans and thus the staff and team are more likely to give a bit more of an "added effort" than the opponent. In the preseason, sometimes an "added effort" is all that matters. Philly will host a Tampa Bay team that is also playing for a first year coach (Dirk Koetter), but his big home debut won't come for two weeks and that promises to be the most meaningful game - by far - of the preseason for the Bucs. Lay the points here.

Truth be told, Pederson isn't walking into a great situation in the City of Brotherly Love and my opinion on the Eagles this year is quite pessimistic. I didn't view them favorably even before word of the Lane Johnson (OT) suspension came down. But that pessimistic viewpoint can be left for the regular season and truth be told, doesn't matter much for tonight. What does matter right now is that the Eagles have three quarterbacks that will get looks. One is Carson Wentz, the #2 overall draft choice, who figures to not play at all in the regular season. Another is Sam Bradford, the incumbent starter. The third is Chase Daniel, who came over from Kansas City in the preseason along w/ Pederson. Daniel was a monster in the preseason last year for the Chiefs, throwing for 389 yards in three games and completing almost 80 percent of his pass attempts (5 TD vs. 1 INT). With Daniel the one most likely to get the majority of reps tonight, he may very well be the key to the game. The Chiefs went 4-0 LY in the preseason.

Tampa Bay knows who its unquestioned starting QB is and it's Jameis Winston. The Bucs were probably better than their 6-10 record showed last year, but depth remains an issue on both sides of the ball, especially in the trenches. Behind Winston at QB is Mike Glennon (who has been here for a few years) and Ryan Griffin. Whomever is under center will have a pretty weak cast of receivers to throw to as Vincent Jackson could be held out as could RB Charles Sims. TE Austin Sefarian-Jenkins has already worked his way into Koetter's doghouse. The Eagles won their two preseason home games LY by an average of 24.5 PPG. 10* Philadelphia

8* Oakland (10:00 ET):  I went against the Raiders at home Sunday night and came out on top w/ a 30-23 win on Arizona. However, like the Cardinals did the week prior, I feel that the Oakland defense wasn't exactly giving 100 percent on the final drive, which resulted in an Arizona touchdown.  The Silver and Black led that game, 15-3 at halftime, and have outgained all three opponents this preseason.  Meanwhile, Seattle has played in three games decided by a total of four points, so I wouldn't want to be laying points w/ them, especially in a game like this where the result is so meaningless.  The underdog has more to prove in this one as the Raiders are a young team w/ players fighting for roster spots.  The Seahawks know their roster and just want to avoid injury. 

Now there is a rumor that QB Russell Wilson and the first team offense could be on the field, albeit for a very limited time, tonight.  But even if they do play, it won't be for long enough to have a lasting impact on the final result.  Seattle's offense hasn't looked very good this preseason anyway.  The defending NFC Champs have actually been outgained in each of their three games, including last week (386-222) in a 16-15 win at San Diego.  They've failed to cover both times as a favorite.  Note they'd be 0-3 if not for a somewhat miraculous Steven Hauschka 60-yard field goal at the end of the game last week.  Furthermore, their one touchdown came on a 67-yard punt return, an occurrence that cannot be counted on week to week. The fact that Tyler Lockett also had a kickoff return for a TD in the opener makes the Seahawks' 49 total pts scored in three games look even worse. In fact, the only other TD scored by Seattle came from the defense via an INT return. So, yes, the Seattle offense has yet to scored a touchdown this preseason.

Oakland, led by then-rookie QB Derek Carr, put up 41 points on a Seattle defense playing most of its regulars in last year's preseason finale.  These teams always meet in the fourth and final preseason game (L13 yrs) and usually it has been Seattle coming out on top (9-4 SU), but considering where the two teams are at on the NFL's pecking order right now, the end result figures to mean more to the Raiders.  QB's Christian Ponder and Matt McGloin are competing for a roster spot (Oakland keeping only 2 QB's), so I expect focused play from under center throughout the game.  8* Oakland

10* Philadelphia (7:00 ET): It's clear that there's one team trying more than the rest this preseason and the team in question is Chip Kelly's Eagles, who are 3-0 SU/ATS having outscored opponents by 62 points. The offense has yet to take its "foot off the gas pedal," scoring 36, 40 and 39 points.  They came into camp w/ four QB's, all of them well known, those being Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez, Matt Barkley and Tim Tebow, a quartet that might otherwise be better known as "peaked in College Rob Lowe."  But there's no doubt that, save for Barkley, they've been successful here in August. Bradford and Sanchez are locks for the roster, so tonight it will be Barkley and Tebow auditioning for that final spot.

The Eagles scored in each of the first 10 quarters of preseason.  They had 39 pts at halftime last week in Green Bay w/ Bradford & Sanchez directing five scoring drives between them. However, they've also done plenty of scoring when their top two QB's aren't in the game. Consider that in the first two preseason games, they outscored foes 76-27 and that was w/ Bradford playing only one series.  Clearly, when you average 38.3 points and 430 yards per game, and doing so w/ tremendous consistency, you care about winning. Motivation is at its nadir in Week 4 of the preseason, but I expect Chip Kelly to be one of the few coaches who cares about the final result. The battle for the third QB spot on the roster will be the driving force.

As for the Jets, they've won two straight since dropping their opener, 23-3 @ Detroit.  It was 28-18 over the rival Giants last week.  But, they've lost three of the last four years to the Eagles in the preseason finale, including 37-10 in 2014.  The Jets' QB situation, one of the worst in the league to begin with, is even less attractive here w/ journeyman Matt Flynn (signed Aug 19th) expected to start and his backup is Josh Johnson was brought into camp even later (Aug 29th).   The only other option is rookie Bryce Petty, who is also not ready.  The Jets are -72.4 yards per game in the preseason.  Over the last three seasons, the Eagles are 7-2 ATS as preseason favorites. They'll want this meaningless game more. 10* Philadelphia

8* Arizona (8:00 ET):  We all know that this is "dress rehearsal week," meaning that the starters will see their most playing time of the entire preseason. Similar to a play I made on Friday w/ Detroit over Jacksonville, we have a more talented team in a price range they'd never find themselves in if this were the regular season. Granted, that can be said for many of these games throughout the preseason, but this week it's a big deal because this is as close to the regular season as we're getting this month.  The Cardinals, who are 0-2 this preseason and off a last second loss at home to San Diego last week, should come in pretty hungry for a win and that'll be enough against a Raiders team that still has plenty of holes to fill.

Oakland has been a part of two pretty pedestrian games thus far, first winning 1st year HC Jack Del Rio's home debut, 18-3 over St. Louis, which is when I took them, only to come back and lose last week, 20-12 at Minnesota.  It seems no matter who is the coach, the Silver and Black always find a way to lead the league in penalties and last week was no different as the team was flagged 13 times for 106 yards, which is a bad sign moving forward. I still am not sold on second year QB Derek Carr. While it's nice to know a team's starters could play beyond halftime, the fact is the Raiders are still one of the two or three least talented teams in the entire league. It doesn't really help when the other team is doing the same thing and has more talent than you.

Arizona ran into a hot backup QB in its opener, Kansas City's Chase Daniel, who threw for three touchdowns in a 34-19 come from behind victory. Note that the Cardinals actually led that game 10-0 after one quarter as Carson Palmer was 4 of 4 for 77 yards on a touchdown drive. The Cards won't have to worry about any kind of backup QB getting hot here as behind Carr is Vikings washout Christian Ponder.  Last week brought another strong start (led San Diego 6-0 after one quarter) and if it wasn't for a missed XP, they would have won the game. Palmer again threw a TD pass in limited action. You get the feeling that after tying the game last week, 19-19, neither team wanted OT, so the Cardinals may have "let" (gasp) the Chargers get into position for the GW field goal.  They'll finish the deal this week. 8* Arizona

10* St. Louis (8:00 ET):   We have two 0-2 teams here, but I'll give a big edge to the Rams seeing as they're a) at home and b) the Colts haven't taken the preseason seriously in over a decade.  This will actually be the first time Jeff Fisher's team has been at home and following uninspiring losses to both Oakland and Tennessee, I expect he'll have his team gunning for a win.  Indianapolis, whose eye is on not just the regular season, but also winning a Super Bowl, is unlikely to have any such interest in winning this game.  Therefore, I have no problem laying the short number in this one, even though we'll see more of Andrew Luck as well. But Luck himself won't be enough and in the 2nd half, I expect St. Louis will the lone party interested in winning the game.

One thing that the Colts have to be very careful about in this game is protecting Luck.  The offensive line did a terrible job last week, giving up three sacks, and that was against a bad Chicago defense.  This Rams' front four rates as the best in the entire league and is loaded w/ talent.  If they can get to Luck early, than his day could be cut short for fear of injury.  Indianapolis has now lost seven straight preseason games and so far has tallied only 21 points in two games.  This is a depth-shy team that has scored all of seven points in the second half. With so many veterans on the roster, I don't think we'll see players such as Frank Gore and Andre Johnson out on the field for as long as we're accustomed to seeing other teams' starters.

After an uninspired showing at Oakland in the first preseason game (lost 18-3), the Rams were at least a little better last week as they actually outgained the Titans, 403-380, in a 27-14 loss.  I say that even though they were down 20-0 at halftime.  Given the high hopes they have this year, I assume the coaching staff is going to want to see improvement across the board here tonight.  Provided they don't get blown out again in the first half like last week, the Rams' reserves will be put in a position to win the game.  Playing at home for the first time should be a big lift. 10* St. Louis

8* Miami (7:00 ET):  The Dolphins are 0-2 so far this preseason, but will be playing at home for the first time tonight as they host Atlanta. The fact the Fish are winless is a little misleading in the sense they've played relatively well, the first team offense in particular. A trendy pick to make the playoffs this year, Miami has been favored - by exactly one point - on the road in each of their first two games, so they seem like a pretty good bargain here against a Falcons team I played against last week. Atlanta lost 30-22 as one-point dogs up in New York, turning the ball over three times. They were also able to run the ball for only 31 yds on 21 carries, which is troubling. I look for the home team to take care of business in this one.

Miami lost its preseason opener, 27-10 to Chicago, a result that I'm proud to say that I was on the right side of.  But that final score was a little misleading in the sense that the Bears scored 24 of those 27 points in the second half when the reserves were in the game.  They also greatly benefited from four Dolphins' turnovers.  For Miami, the big takeaway so far is that QB Ryan Tannehill has looked good. He directed a touchdown drive in that first game, his only series, and then last week completed 12 of his 15 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown. Again, the team blew a fourth quarter lead, losing 31-30 to Carolina. But, even w/ a banged up offensive line, Tannehill will see his most action of the preseason this week, which makes what he's done over the first two games very pertinent. I'm not worried at all that the Miami backups have been unable to hold leads in the first two games.

While Atlanta similarly went up 14-0 last week on the Jets, only to similarly give the game away, 1st year HC Dan Quinn still has a lot of work to do in rebuilding a defense that ranked among the league's worst in 2014. The fact two potential starters, one of them being talented CB Desmond Trufant, remain out w/ injuries makes that task all the more challenging.  In the two games so far, the Falcons have surrendered 54 points and I expect them to struggle here against Tannehill and the rest of the Dolphins' first-team offense. When Tannehill has left the game the last two weeks, Miami was up 10-3 and 14-0, and last week it should have been 21-0 if not for a poor challenge from HC Joe Philbin. Had Philbin not challenged, Tannehill would have led his fourth touchdown drive in as many chances this preseason. Miami's first team defense didn't allow any points last week, forcing two three and outs.  8* Miami

10* Over Vikings/Cowboys (7:00 ET):  We all know these preseason results are to be taken w/ a grain of salt, but Dallas' first two games have been particularly yawn-inspiring. With QB Tony Romo playing all of one series to this point, the offense has scored a total of just 13 points. Meanwhile, the defense has somehow gotten away w/ allowing only 114 yards passing - total!  Both games stayed well Under the total, but with starters playing more in this "dress rehearsal" game, I see an increase in scoring across the board here. With the benefit of an extra game (played in the HOF Game), Minnesota seems to be in fine form already and should have no problem scoring on this banged up Dallas' defense.  Take the Over.

While the Cowboys have yielded a minuscule number of passing yards to this point, opponents have had no problem running the ball on them. So far, they've allowed 290 yds rushing.  Minnesota, who has been very good in the preseason in two years under Mike Zimmer (perfect 7-0 SU!), should have no problem moving the ball in this game. Expect the Cowboys' passing yardage allowed to more than double after this game, in the wake of a season-ending injury to CB Orlando Scandrick.  Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater has looked very sharp in three games so far (22-28 for 219 yards) and should be able to pick this defense apart.  Remember that two weeks ago Minnesota scored 23 pts in the first half alone. 

Dallas will also need to do its part here as 13 points in two games, preseason or not, is pretty unacceptable. Tony Romo has played just the one series so far and it was a three and out.  The three running backs expected to fill the void left by DeMarco Murray's departure had only 13 combined touches last week against San Francisco.  While Minnesota's defense has allowed just 31 pts total in three games, it should be noted that they faced a Pittsburgh offense that did not have QB Ben Roethlisberger (backup Landry Jones was awful), Jameis Winston making his first career start for Tampa Bay and a talent-bereft Oakland team. This will be their toughest test yet.  10* Over Vikings/Cowboys

8* Detroit (8:00 ET):  Home teams have gone 11-5 each of the first two weeks of preseason, but with this being the most important week ("dress rehearsal"), I think you'll start to see a better effort from some of the visiting teams.  Here, you have a Lions team that would certainly be favored over the Jaguars in the regular season, even if the game were played here in Jacksonville.  Therefore, with starters seeing extended time, I'll go ahead and grab the points with the better team.  Both are off losses and 1-1 SU so far in preseason play, but I'd argue the Lions have looked more impressive overall as they had a lead going into the fourth quarter last week in Washington after thumping the Jets 23-3 in the first game. 

On the surface, neither team's total yardage from last week is particularly impressive. However, consider that Detroit ran only 49 plays en route to 241 total yards (4.9 YPP) while Jacksonville had 67 snaps and gained just 244 total yards, meaning they were at a full yard per play (3.6) less than the Lions were.  I saw a headline which read "Bortles and Jags' offense looks ready" and quickly realized how low the bar must be for this Jacksonville offense this season as they scored only 12 pts last week, all on field goals. Bortles completed just 50 percent of his passes and I remain unsold on him as a long-term, viable starter in this league. Of note is that three of the Jags' four field goals were 49 yards or longer, meaning that they weren't exactly getting deep into Giants' territory.

Though this is the game where we see starters the most, Jacksonville is electing to rest 12 of its players due to various injuries. One of them is RB Toby Gerhart, so rookie TJ Yeldon (who has yet to play) will be left to carry the load.  The Jags barely squeaked out a victory (beat Pittsburgh 23-21) in their first preseason game, so again, laying points w/ them seems dicey.  Expect Bortles to be pressured here and you saw what the Lions' defensive front was able to do to RGIII and Washington last week. Lions' rookie running back Ameer Abdullah was curiously quiet last week after a breakout game in the opener (67 yards) and I'd expect to see him featured tonight.  QB Matt Stafford has already directed two scoring drives in very limited action and don't forget this offense gained well over 400 yards in its first game.  Backup Dan Orlovsky, believe it or not, played very well behind Stafford last week (13-17, 118 yds + 2 TDs).  8* Detroit

8* Cincinnati (8:00 ET):  Tampa Bay lost its preseason opener, 26-16 at Minnesota as 3.5-point dogs. Granted, that was a bit of a tough spot for the Bucs as the Vikings were playing their second preseason game. But worrisome was TB's defense, which allowed 26 pts through three quarters (23 pts at halftime).  On offense, all eyes were on QB Jameis Winston (#1 overall DC), who after reportedly looking good all week in practice, really struggled in his first "real" pro game. He completed only 9 of 19 passes and threw an INT in addition to mishandling a pair of snaps that led to a loss of 19 yards. Also, the team couldn't run the ball to save its life, gaining just 89 yds on 26 carries. Overall, it was worrisome to lose a game handily where they had a 3-1 edge in TO's.

As for Cincinnati, they looked very impressive in a 23-10 win over the Giants. Much maligned QB Andy Dalton led the first team offense to a touchdown on the opening drive. The team finished the game w/ a monster 432-224 edge in total yardage and I believe that was the most yards gained by any team last week. That included 225 yds over land, so they appear to have a monster edge in that department. A glaring lack of pass rush for the Bucs will only make things easier for whomever is under center for the Bengals.  Dalton and the first-teamers will obviously be on the field longer this week. Behind him, AJ McCarron will see his first-ever NFL action.

The Bengals' defense was really impressive last week, especially in holding Eli Manning & the Giants' first team offense to no first downs in 14 minutes. Manning actually completed only one pass in the first two series for negative five yards. Only one of the Giants' plays on those two drives went for positive yards.  I expect Winston to struggle again tonight, under the bright lights. Really, given what we saw last week, I'm a little surprised Tampa Bay is favored here. Yes, they're at home, but the Bengals look like the much better value as the better team getting points. 8* Cincinnati

10* Pittsburgh (1:00 ET): While ultimately there's little evidence that these games have any real predictive value for the regular season, I would gather that the Steelers are feeling pretty desperate for a win going into Sunday afternoon. Having taken part in the Hall of Fame Game, they should have a "leg up" on the competition as they'll always have an additional game under their belt compared to the opponent. But, the Black and Gold were unable to hold on last week in Jacksonville, thus dropping to 0-2 this preseason. Here, they'll be at home for the first time (motivation!), hosting Green Bay, who won last week on the road against a sloppy New England team, 22-11. Judging by the line move, the public has chosen to throw its support behind the Packers in this one and the result of that is Pittsburgh being undervalued. Lay the points.

The Steelers looked a lot better last week than they did in the HOF Game, which was to be expected given the actual first team offense saw playing time.  Ben Roethlisberger marched the starters down the field on the opening drive, needing only six plays to score a TD. Behind Big Ben, backup Landry Jones has gotten a ton of playing time, so he should be more effective in these final weeks of preseason.  Rookie WR Sammie Coates also looked good, hauling in five passes for 52 yds. Defensively, I think its key for the Steelers to put pressure on Aaron Rodgers as that could cut his playing time short. After allowing the GW touchdown w/ less than three minutes to go last week, that unit should come out inspired.

Rodgers will likely play almost a half here for Green Bay, but the same holds true for Roethlisberger and Pittsburgh's first teamers. Keep in mind that Big Ben has been on the field for all of one series this preseason and it resulted in a touchdown. With the Packers, there are concerns how their young cornerbacks will match up with the speedy Steeler receivers, plus a key injury along the offensive line (LT) is worrisome. That's where Pittsburgh needs to target in an effort to get Rodgers out of the game as early as possible. Because they've already played twice, the Steelers will be much stiffer competition than the Patriots were last week. 10* Pittsburgh

8* Arizona (10:00 ET):  This will be the Cardinals final chance to win in front of the home folk as they lost their preseason opener last week, 34-19 to Kansas City here in Glendale. Home teams have generally been 'taking care of business' this preseason, which is to be expected given the general lack of motivation for these games. Playing in front of your own fans often times is motivation enough for teams. It didn't work that way for Arizona last week, but dropping B2B home games seems out of the question. Granted, Cleveland just did, but the Browns are obviously terrible.  The line, still available at less than a field goal, seems optimal as well.

Of note is that Arizona did jump out to an early 10-0 lead on the Chiefs last week. The really good news is that QB Carson Palmer, whose 2014 season ended w/ a torn ACL last November, looked outstanding in his return. He completed all four pass attempts, for 77 yards, and led the first team offense into the end zone in his only drive.  The problem was Kansas City would go on a 31-0 run with reserves in on both sides. Chiefs backup QB Chase Daniel played somewhat out of his mind. Fortunately for tonight, we don't have to worry about anything similar coming from the Chargers, who scored only three second half points in their 17-7 win over the Cowboys last week. Behind Philip Rivers, San Diego's other QB's are Kellen Clemens and Brad Sorensen, neither of whom is anything to worry about.

The Chargers only gained 199 total yds last week, including just 64 through the air.  The strength of Arizona is its defense and Tyron Matthieu, who intercepted a pass last week, has looked outstanding so far in training camp. Again, you can pretty much ignore last week's total yardage allowed to the Chiefs because it was an outlier w/ reserves on the field. Starters will play more tonight.  San Diego averaged just 3.8 yards per play last week, a full yard less than what Arizona's offense averaged. I imagine that the final result here will matter more to the Cardinals. 8* Arizona

10* Under Bears/Colts (7:30 ET): Turnovers were the story for both of these teams in their respective preseason openers, albeit in very different manners.  Chicago, who I was on, benefited from four costly Dolphins mistakes and won 27-10 in new HC John Fox's home debut.  The Colts unfortunately turned the ball over four times themselves in an ugly 36-10 loss to Philadelphia Sunday. Assuming we don't have the same number of mistakes here, I envision less total scoring than we saw in both teams' games last week. That has me on the Under here as the number, particularly in the Bears' case, is inflated. These teams have also been practicing w/ one another over the L3 days, so there's a sense of familiarity.

While the Colts are healthier going into this game than they were last week vs. the Eagles, issues still remain.  Their offense line didn't play well Sunday as the team averaged just 3.6 yards per carry. No longer do they have Trent Richardson to blame for that. Depth on the line, both offensive and defensive, is a concern as well. That being said, I don't expect them to give up 400+ yards again like they did last week to the Eagles. Chicago doesn't have the QB depth to make that happen. Neither Jay Cutler nor Jimmy Claussen was said to look very good in practice this week. The Bears offense scored only three points in the first half last week and didn't get its first touchdown until late in the third quarter and that drive was setup by a Dolphins turnover. So too was a fourth quarter field goal.  Bottom line is that Chicago can't count on another late flurry of scoring from their backups. It also doesn't help that both of their projected starting wide receivers are out tonight.

The Bears' defense is the bigger concern coming into the year, but the good news here is that after allowing a TD on Miami's opening drive last week, they allowed only a field goal the rest of the way. The Colts' impressive looking time of possession from last week (over 36 minutes) was not indicative of any kind of dominance, but rather it had to do w/ the opponent, who under Chip Kelly plays at the fastest pace in the entire league. Indy also allowed a special teams TD last week (punt return), another miscue that if corrected (likely) will result in less scoring. 10* Under Bears/Colts

10* NY Jets (7:30 ET):  Home teams have generally taken care of business thus far in the preseason, going 11-6 straight up. That makes sense considering playing in front of one's own fans for the first time can be motivation enough in games where overall motivation is lacking. This will be home game #1 for the Jets, who have already had a tumultuous training camp as is (QB Geno Smith jaw broken by former teammate) and their first real action wasn't any better as they got blown out 23-3 in Detroit last Thursday, gaining all of 123 total yds in the process. As a result, I expect an inspired performance tonight for 1st year HC Todd Bowles, who will be making his home debut. Twice last week I took a coach in his first home game - Chicago's John Fox & Oakland's Jack Del Rio - and both cashed easily.

Atlanta is coming off a win for its own 1st year head coach, Dan Quinn, the former DC in Seattle.  That didn't surprise me, though they were outgained in the 31-24 (-3) win over Tennessee. Three turnovers greatly aided the Falcons' cause w/ two of them coming from rookie QB Marcus Mariota and one was directly converted into points (fumble return for TD). The game was 17-0 after the first quarter, but Atlanta actually still needed a late TD to pull out the SU win. Even w/ Quinn's resume, I have concerns about this Falcons' defense heading into the season as he doesn't have anywhere near the same level of talent he had to work w/ in Seattle. On the other side of the ball, the offensive line may very well struggle here (Jets' defensive front very good) plus backup QB TJ Yates was pretty terrible last week. A lack of a legitimate backup QB behind Matt Ryan is what has severely hurt Atlanta in past preseasons.

No 1st year HC wants to lose the first game in front of the home fans. We already know they were 3-1 SU/ATS last week, the one loss coming from Rex Ryan, by a single point. The Jets are also one of the few teams to have a legit QB competition in play, so I expect better play out of that position this week, whether its veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick or rookie Bryce Petty.  Fitzpatrick is expected to play most, if not all, of the first half, which is good considering it will be the third straight preseason he's faced the Falcons. Meanwhile, Atlanta may rest both of its top running backs here.  10* NY Jets

8* Cleveland (8:00 ET):  Having lost at home last week (20-17 vs. Washington), this will be the last chance Browns HC Mike Pettine has to win in front of the faithful this preseason. Despite it being only his second year here and coming off a 7-9 SU season, Pettine is somewhat on the hotseat.  Opening the preseason w/ B2B home losses would not be good way to open 2015. Meanwhile, Buffalo also lost its home opener last week, 25-24 to Carolina in what was Rex Ryan's debut. Pettine is a Ryan disciple, so schematically, the two sides should know each other well. Both are battling through a number of injuries, but I come back to the fact Cleveland is at home while the Bills can make up for last week, next Sunday, in the dress rehearsal game as they host Pittsburgh. Lay the points. 

Home teams went 10-5 SU last week, so that's an edge right there for the Browns.  Of course, these two did contribute to those five losses. But another advantage for the home team here is an extra day to prepare as the Bills last played Friday while Cleveland played Thursday. The Browns couldn't do much on the ground vs. Washington (just 45 yds rushing) and were outgained 365-170, but did have a 14-3 lead at one point w/ both QB's - Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel - leading touchdown drives. Though McCown is the presumed starter (why?), I don't think that the competition is by any means over. McCown is expected to get around 25 snaps tonight while Manziel will play into the third quarter. The Browns may be bereft of talent at the skill positions, but are fortunate in that they're playing one of the few teams in the league that's as weak as they are there, especially when it comes to quarterback. 

Believe it or not, but right now Tyrod Taylor is the favorite to land the Bills' starting QB gig.  That speaks volumes. Making the job of Taylor, Matt Cassel and EJ Manuel (How's that for a group? Yikes!) all the more difficult is the fact that both starting receivers are out as are the team's top five running backs!  I feel Buffalo is vastly overrated coming into the season due to Ryan hire and will be unable to match LY's win total. Ryan is just 11-14 SU all-time in the preseason and has had just one winning season. 8* Cleveland

10* Washington (7:30 ET): Both of these teams won last week, Detroit doing so in pretty dominant fashion (23-3 at home vs. the Jets) while Washington went to Cleveland and came away w/ a 20-17 victory. As dominant as the Lions were (outgained the Jets 428-123!), I'd rate what the 'Skins did as just as impressive, considering they were one of just five road teams to prevail in Wk 1.  Plus, they had a pretty significant edge in total yards compared to the Browns as well (365-170) that shouldn't be overlooked. QB depth is crucial this time of year and Washington has three signal callers w/ regular season starting experience (RG3, Cousins, McCoy).  That should serve them well in the preseason. Lay the points.

Cousins looked very good last week as he completed 12 of 14 passes for 154 yards. This week, we're set to see more of McCoy as he battles for the backup role and there's rumors that the team may only be keeping two QB's on its roster.  Therefore, I look for a very motivated performance. Cousins is a QB that, at least this time of year, you can count on at the end of games if need be. Griffin and the first team offense have gone five straight preseason games w/o scoring a TD, but it's worth pointing out they should have had one last week were it not for Pierre Garcon dropping a pass. The bottom line is that I'd much rather have Cousins/McCoy than Detroit's backup QB combo of Dan Orlovsky and Kellen Moore, both of whom were just okay against a Jets' defense that was really struggling.

A big key to this game is going to be who can run the ball more effectively. Both teams ran off a lot of yards on the ground last week, the Lions led by Ameer Abdullah, but it should be "tougher sledding" for him this week against a Redskins' defensive front which permitted just 2.4 yards per carry against the Browns. With Ndamukong Suh off to Miami, I have my concerns about a Detroit's ability to stop the run, which surprising wasn't even that great w/ Suh on the roster. I imagine that playing at home will give Washington a little bit of an extra incentive and of the two teams, they are the one w/ "more to prove" Thursday night. 10* Washington