40*

Minnesota Vikings +3.5

40*

New York Giants +3.5

This has the makings of the public burial of the day. The Saints and Brees are in a terrible spot. Not only are they playing back to back road games (where Brees has been a lot worse outdoors,) they're also coming off playing a 5 quarter game against their divisional arch-rival. They say that defense travels and this Saints defense is absolutely dreadful. To make matters worse, Robinson broke his leg and this secondary could be in for a long day. 

40*

Baltimore Ravens -5

I expect the Ravens to bounce back after their Thursday night loss to Cincy. I typical like backing teams that lose in primetime the previous week. The Ravens are in a great spot getting the extra few days to prepare, while the Broncos have to come to the east coast for a 1pm game for their first road game of the season. This team is extremely lucky to be 2-0 and as the looks of it, beat two really bad teams in the Seahawks and Raiders. The Broncos come into this game over valued and with the oddsmakers posting this line over 4 points tells me that the Ravens are clearly the right side here.

50*

Green Bay Packers -2.5

I know this is the square side but I have to back Aaron Rodgers here. The Redskins are a laughingstock. They don't have much talent and they have the worst home field advantage in the NFL. Being a Redskins fan, I watch this team closely and I don't see how Alex Smith, AKA Mr Check Down, can trade points with the MVP. Remember, Alex Smith was taken #1 Overall in the same draft as Rodgers, so you know he has a big time chip on his shoulder when playing him.

50* NFL DIVISIONAL GAME OF THE YEAR

Atlanta Falcons -5.5

This game has everything I look for in a Week 2 game in the NFL. We have a 1-0 team facing an 0-1 team and the Thursday night game loser playing on extra rest/preparation at home. If you watched that Falcons/Eagles game, you know that the Falcons were clearly the better team. I will say the weather and outdoors played a bit of a factor. Atlanta, like New Orleans, is a completely different animal playing in the dome. Carolina is also going to miss Olsen and the X-Factor for this game is the Hurricane. I believe the Panthers might not have full focus given the fact that their home town is in danger. 

50* NFL MAX BET

Arizona Cardinals -1

I hate the move for Alex Smith by the Redskins. This is a major downgrade from Cousins and to make matters worse, they traded away one of their best DBs in the process. Sam Bradford will be behind center for Arizona and you won't confuse him for a Pro Bowler but he clearly can get the job done. We also have David Johnson back for the Cardinals and people are completely forgetting about him. This dude was absolutely tearing it up before he went down. The Redskins have failed to cover the spread in 5 straight season openers and this shows that they continue to be over valued coming into the season.

50* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH

Minnesota Vikings -6.5

I have the Minnesota Vikings rated as the best team in the NFL. This team has one of the best home field advantages in all of football. San Francisco comes into this season with a ton of hype. Everyone is jumping on the Jimmy G train and I don't think it's warranted. SF coming into the season last year was rated the WORST, #32! Now they get a QB and they're a Top 10 team according to some experts?! I don't think so. NFL teams now have an enitre offseason to prepare for him. What a way to start the season for the 49ers having to take on the NFL's best defense. The Vikings finally have a Top tier QB in Cousins and have a TON of weapons around him. This team is DEADLY.

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Tennessee Titans vs. New England Patriots OVER 48

You know what's been one hell of a bet in the playoffs? Taking the Patriots games over the total. The Patriots have gone over in 8 straight Divisional Round games and 7-1 in their last 8 playoffs game overall. Most of the talking heads have mentioned this by now but Tom Brady would EAT the Steelers alive because of their zone blitz scheme. Yes, I did say Steelers. The reason i mention this is becuase Dick LeBeau is the Defensive coordinator for the Titans now. 

Another great reason for this over play is that even though the Pats are 1st in the NFL in total yards and 2nd in points, their defense is quite the opposite. Yes, their defense is ranked 5th in scoring but they give up a TON of yards. they are 29th in the NFL and 30th through the air. There will definitely be opportunities for the Titans to score tonight.

50* One & Only NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

New England Patriots -3

It's no secret. Tom Brady owns the Pittsburgh Steelers. Since Brady entered the league (including the Playoffs) Tom Brady has 29 Touchdowns and 3 INTs. Against the Mike Tomlin coached Steelers...he's perfect, 22 TDs and ZERO interceptions. 

What makes this game special is that both teams just played on National TV. Steelers had a fantastic come back against their arch rivals on Sunday Night Football, where the Patriots looked like the Cleveland Browns against the Dolphins on Monday Night Football. Everyone remembers that the Patriots "aren't that good right now" and the Steelers "are unstoppable." Let's not forget, New England didn't have Gronk and were in an AWFUL spot. They were playing the Dolphins twice in 3 weeks and playing their 4th road game in 5 games. Belichick is the master at coaching and no doubt about it, he went vanilla as possible to get ready for the game this week. I hate to say games are meaningless but for all intents and purposes, last week's game meant nothing. Even with that loss, the Patriots still can get the #1 seed beating the Steelers here.

New England is 43-18 ATS off of a loss and are 24-7 ATS after having less than 250 yards the previous week. The Pats are fantastic at bouncing back. They are also 12-4 ATS against the Steelers which includes going 4-1 ATS in Pittsburgh.

40*

New York Giants +4.5

50* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Buffalo Bills +3

I am shocked we get the full FG here. To be honest, I was seeing if we could get lucky and snag a 3.5, but it's Saturday and we need to get this game out.

The situation clearly favors the Bills. They last played Thursday on the road, but it was still in New York (close to home), and looked awful against the Jets. Buffalo now gets the extra time to prepare and gets to play in their own building, where they are perfect on the season.

The stock couldn't be higher on the Saints right now and they are nearly unstoppable in New Orleans. However, its a completely different story on the road. They are just 1-7 ATS playing outdoors and to make matters worse, it's going to be damn near freezing in Buffalo on Sunday.

For all intents and purposes, this game is a must win for Buffalo. If you look at their remaining schedule, it'll be an uphill battle for the playoffs if they drop this one. Two against New England and on the road in KC. They also finish the season with two on the road.

50* NFL Situational GAME OF THE YEAR

Philadelphia Eagles -8

It's a very rare scheduling spot in the NFL but when it happens, I love to fade it. The Denver Broncos are playing their THIRD straight road game. What makes it even worse for Denver is that they are going from Los Angeles to Kansas City and now to Philadelphia, playing on a short week from Monday Night Football. This is a huge advantage for the Birds as they are playing their third straight HOME game and are plenty rested.

Brock Osweiler is getting the start for the Broncos. The only guy worse than this dude is Jay Cutler. Osweiler is SO bad that the CLEVELAND BROWNS are paying his salary (nearly $900,000) for this game against the Eagles. Think about that. A team that has been notoriously bad with QB play is PAYING you to play for different team. 

The Broncos are on a losing streak and they really aren't in a situation where they can afford to lookahead, but it's worth noting that they do have the New England Patriots on deck at home. 

FWIW, this is a fantastic teaser leg. I recommend the New Orleans Saints.

50* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Denver Broncos +1

One of my favorite angles in the NFL is backing a team that laid a complete egg in primetime. The Denver Broncos got embarrassed on Sunday Night Football against the injury depleted Giants as 13 point favorites. Professional sports are all about motivation and if there is one team that has something to prove this week, it's the Denver Broncos. I also love the fact that this game is on the road. Usually when there are "problems" you want to get away from your home field to relieve some of the pressure. What makes this even better is that they're playing at the best place to play a road game in the NFL. The Los Angeles Chargers have ZERO home field advantage. In all honestly, I think they have a negative HFA. 

Like I said in the promo, this is just our 2nd 50* on an underdog this season. The first...The Chargers on Monday Night Football Week 1, catching 3.5. I must admit, we did get lucky to cover that game as Denver pretty much owned the Chargers from the get go. I expect an inspired performance from the Broncos this week and all it takes is one big mistake from Philip Rivers. He'll lose his cool and the Broncos will run away with this game.

UPDATE: This line has climbed all the way to -2 at some spots. I would still play this game for 5% at -2 or less

40* NFL TOP PLAY SHOCKER

Cincinnati Bengals +5.5

I am expecting a let down here from the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh just did the near impossible and beat the Chiefs at Arrowhead. The Steelers have been the zig zag team of the year. They always follow a great performance with a crappy one. They're taking on a Bengals team that is fresh off their bye week. Cincy's offense has come alive since they made the switch of OCs and their defense has been lights out. They currently boast the #2 defense in the NFL. Bottomline here is that I still think there are severe locker rooms issues in Pittsburgh. It's one thing being an underdog with chemistry problems but when you're the favorite and you're expected to win, it's a whole different ball game.

UPDATE: This line has now dropped to 4 and even 3.5 in some spots. Try your best and get that +4. I would play for 3% under that.

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

New Orleans Saints -4

There are certain teams/coaches you should always keep your eye on when coming off the bye week and you guessed it, the Saints are one of them. New Orleans is now 8-1 against the spread in their last 9 games having the extra week to prepare.

People have forgotten about the Saints as they started off the season slow at 0-2. But when you look closer, they had a real tough game in Minnesota and they moved the ball well against that fantastic defense but they shot themselves in the foot too many times in goal to go situations and it cost them. They then had to take on Patriots in one of New England's best spots, off a loss. The Saints have now bounced back nicely with two straight wins and their defense is a big part of that. New Orleans has allowed just 1 TD since September 24th.

Another reason this is a great play is that the public is ALL over the Lions here. I love going against a public underdog. This reminds me a lot of the Bills game last week. The public ran to the window to get points with Buffalo against the Bengals (who also started out the season 0-2.) Well, the public got buried there and I expect them to go down in flames here as well. 

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams OVER 47.5

This is the highest total this match up has seen in a long time. In fact, the highest before this game was 44 three years ago. So why are we taking the over? Because these are not the same Rams and Seahawks teams we are accustomed to seeing. The Rams typically play stout defense and have a dreadful offense. These McVay Rams are the polar opposites. They have the best scoring offense in the NFL right now but the 28th ranked scoring defense. Seattle's defense is clearly not the same as prior years as well. They well also be without Lane and Avril which, no doubt, will hurt the pass rush and coverage. The over is 5-0 at home for the Rams and it 4-1 on the road for the Seahawks. The key here is Seattle playing a good team. When the Seahawks play the good teams of the NFL, the points come in bunches as evidence of their 12-4 OVER run.

50* NFC TOTAL OF THE MONTH

New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers OVER 44.5

We are getting tremendous line value on this game because of how bad the Giants offense looked early on. However, once Odell Beckham Jr. burst back onto the scene, this offense got a spark. This Giants team is COMPLETELY different with him on the field. The Giants can actually move the ball with all the attention he requires. This is great news for the Giants as the Tampa Bay defense is ailing and they looked awful last week against a Vikings offense with their BACK UP quarterback.

As for the Buccaneers, they have some of the best offensive firepower in the NFL. Although they got smoked week, Jameis still managed to complete over 70% of his passes and throw for over 300 yards against a terrific Vikings defense. 

Bottomline is that we are getting this game below the ultra key number of 45 (6 TDs and a FG.) This game should be back and forth with a lot of passing.  

40* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

New York Jets +3.5

The Jacksonville Jaguars are road favorites. Let me say that again. The JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS are road FAVORITES. Not only are they road favorites, they are laying OVER a field goal. The Jaguars haven't been road favorites in 44 games. What's even more surprising is that they are the most popular bet side right now at several shops.

This is a terrible spot for the Jags as they are returning home from London and they looked like world beaters against the Ravens. This team is prime for a letdown. As for the Jets, they played inspired ball last week and I look for that to carry over here. Remember, everyone wrote the Jets off this year. These players are playing like they have nothing to lose and that is a dangerous team to face.

50* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR

Oakland Raiders -3

Most of my long term subscribers know this but I'm a Washington Redskins fan. I should say sort of a Skins fan. I do follow this team very closely. One thing I know for sure about this squad, is that you fade them when they play primetime games. That are an absolute laughing stock when playing under the lights. Yes this might be the "square" or "public" play but it all honesty, that doesn't matter when it comes to the Washington Redskins. This same thing happened last year on Monday Night Football when the Steelers were laying 3 at Fed Ex to the Skins. The Steelers absolutely crushed the Redskins. I expect a similar result here.

The Redskins defense, especially pass defense, has been borderline pathetic now for nearly a decade. I simply can't imagine what Derek Carr (who has done an excellent job at protecting the ball) is going to do to this soft secondary. To make matters worse for the Redskins, both teams are traveling from California this week. However, the Redskins were in a battle against a tough defense and their old offensive coordinator in LA. Whereas the Raiders had a "bye week" laying a beat down at home to the lowly Jets.

Getting this at a FG or less is a total bargain. I couldn't believe this even opened -2.5 at some shops. Picking the correct spots to bet against the Redskins is what I do. I believe this is going to be the best situation to go heavy against Washington and we'll make the Raiders our GOY.

Best of luck to us and thank you for being a customer. I truly appreciate it!

50* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

New England Patriots vs. New Orleans Saints OVER 56

I refuse to over think this one. Two teams that love to play fast and throw the ball against two defenses that have been poor to start out the year. Although it was the preseason, the Patriots defense has been atrocious the last 5 games and the Saints just made the Vikings offense look like one of the best in the league. What's funny about the Week 1 performances is that the Pats D made Alex Smith look like Tom Brady and the Saints D made SAM BRADFORD look like Drew Brees. That is damn near impossible.

I believe we are getting value here with this total as the Saints did only manage 19 points last week. If you look closer into the game, they did manage to move up and down the field against one of the best defensive units in the NFL, but they kept shooting themselves in the foot during goal-to-go situations and would have to settle for 4 field goals. It's hard to see that happening in the Super Dome where the Saints offense has been the best in the league for a while now.

Lastly, the trends for this game all point to the over. It is a VERY rare spot for the Patriots but the over is a perfect 5-0 following a double digit loss at home. Tom Brady is also dead last in the league in completion percentage. You have to think he's going to do whatever he can to make up for that dreadful performance Week 1. They have also been terrific historically when playing in a dome, going 61-28. As for the Saints, they have gone over the total in 11 of their last 14 home games. 

50* Monday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH

Los Angeles Chargers +3.5

I think the only thing Denver has going for them here is home field advantage. I believe that the Chargers are the better team. They are flying completely under the radar. I think there's serious trouble at the QB position for the Broncos. This new offense the Broncos are trying to run doesn't fit the mold of Siemian. They even went out and signed Brock Osweiler. Any team singing him is a desperate football team. 

The Chargers have always been a solid road team ATS and have done exceptionally well in Denver covering the number. Getting over a FG is the way to go.

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Seattle Seahawks vs. Green Bay Packers OVER 50.5

Right off the bat when I saw a Seattle game lined in the 50's, I had to look more into the game. Sometimes the oddsmakers tell you what the right side should be with the number they post. Imagine seeing a Falcons game with a total of 41...it would look beyond fishy and taking the over would look like easy money. Well we all know, when it looks to good to be true, it usually is.

Looking inside the stats, a rule of thumb is you bet the Seahawks to go over on the road and the Packers to go over at home. We have the perfect combination here. Green Bay obviously has an amazing offense but their defense is embarrasing. They gave up the most yards per play last year. I also love the fact that the Packers have gone over the total in Week 1 for 6 straight years. This tell me that their offense is their key preparation for the summer and they are clicking on all cylinders out of the gates.

50* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Tennessee Titans -1.5

This is the quintessential "Pros vs. Joes" game. The world is going to jump all over the Raiders catching points here. One of my favorite things to fade is when the public loves a road underdog. Typically, people want to bet the over and the favorite (hence WHY they are the favorite) so when the public loves the underdog, especially the ROAD dog, you jump all over the other side. 

When you talk to wiseguys and sports book operators, there's a unanimous hate for Oakland. The numbers just don't add up with them and they are due to take a step back (hence why we also like Oakland UNDER 10 wins.) This team had the worst defensive unit in yards per play last season and benefitted greatly from turnover luck. Even their point differential shows that this team was more like an 8-8 team than a 12-4 squad.

The Titans have now lost back to back years to the Oakland Raiders, so this give us our double revenge angle. When looking closer at last season's game, you will see that turnovers is what killed the Titans. They were able to gash Oakland on the ground and I believe they will do the same this Sunday. 

Bottomline here is that betting is a numbers game. There's a saying that I love "You don't bet sports, you bet numbers." Oddsmakers more often than not will tell you the right side of a game simply by what line they set. Now obviously it doesn't work like that every time because again, they do have to actually PLAY the game and you never know about injuries or ridiculous calls, but I strongly believe 9 out of 10 times, the Titans roll in their home opener.

50* NFL Super Bowl MAX BET

New England Patriots ML -155

Taking the points out of the equation and just asking the New England Patriots to win Super Bowl 51. If you don't want to lay the juice, its OK to lay the 3. However, I personally played the moneyline.

This Super Bowl is nearly a mirror image of last year's. You have the NFC South Champions, with the #1 offense, and the MVP. They are going up against the #1 defense that has a seasoned vet QB, who has won the big game before. Well, we know how that played out. Experience in these big games is vastly under-rated and what's the oldest saying in the book..."DEFENSE wins CHAMPIONSHIPS!" What's so scary about this New England team is that they do boast the #1 scoring defense but they also were the #1 offense in the AFC.

Another Super Bowl this reminds me of is Super Bowl XXXVII. The Oakland Raiders were the flashy top offense in the NFL but they were going up against the #1 defense in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs and their #1 defense destroyed the Raiders 48-21.

In my opinion, Bill Belichick could be the best NFL coach of all time. If he wins this game, he IS the best NFL coach of all time. He takes away what you do best. His ability to prepare is uncanny. Why on earth would you bet against him and Tom Brady?

I also came across this stat, which is a perfect example of this Falcons team being a bit over-valued for this game. Teams that score 40+ points in the NFL Playoffs are 5-24 ATS in their next game. This shows that a premium is put on these high scoring teams knowing the public is going to love them since they look unstoppable. A few sources told me that New England was going to be a 7 point favorite to Atlanta. The Dirty Birds' performance in the NFC Title game dropped the line 4 points...that should tell you all you need to know.

SUPER BOWL 51 GAME PROPS:

- Will there be an onside kick? YES

- Will there be a defensive/special teams TD? NO

- Will there be a 2 point conversion attempt? YES

- Take New England AND Atlanta to convert a 4th down

- Shortest TD of the game UNDER 1.5 yards

- Missed PAT? YES

- Penalties UNDER 12.5

- Falcons commit more penalties

- Falcons commit more turnovers

- NE Punter to have a touchback 

- ATL Punter to have a touchback

- NE players with a reception OVER 7.5

- Longest FG of the game OVER 46.5

- 2nd half + OT to outscore 1st half

- 3rd quarter outscore 1st quarter

- 4th quarter outscore 1st quarter

- Falcons longest kick off return

SUPER BOWL 51 PLAYER PROPS:

- Sanu OVER 47.5 yards

- Sanu OVER 4 receptions

- Gabriel OVER 49.5 yards

- Gabriel OVER 3 receptions

- Freeman OVER 33.5 yards

- Freeman OVER 4 receptions

- Blount scores a TD

- Matt Bryant OVER 1.5 FGs made

50* One & Only NFL GAME OF THE YEAR

Green Bay Packers vs. Atlanta Falcons OVER 60

I'll be honest with you guys. Ever since Week 16, looking at potential playoff scenarios, I was really hoping for this match up and we got it. The oddsmakers simply can't put a total out high enough for this game. I'll start by saying this and I probably sound like a broken record by now to my long term clients but with totals, whenever you see a total that looks ridiculously high (especially if people are talking about the line "being the first of it's kind or highest in awhile,") you go with the over. Perfect examples are this year's highest NFL total and highest CFB total. We were on both overs and they easily cashed. The largest total this NFL season (besides this one) was 58 and wouldn't you know, it featured Atlanta at home.

Like I said with our Falcons GOM last week, NO one can stop this Atlanta offense. This team is like a video game at home. They have gone over the total in 9 straight at home and 6 straight at home in the post-season. The Falcons are the #1 scoring team in the land and rank #3 in passing and #5 in rushing. What makes this set up so nicely for an over is their pass defense, which ranks 28th. Well, guess who's next to last in the NFL in defending the pass...it's the Green Bay Packers.

You could make an argument that Aaron Rodgers may be the best QB of all time. This team has ZERO running game and he still finds a way to pick apart opposing secondaries. Both teams love to throw the ball (which is great for overs) and both teams have Bottom 5 pass defenses. These two clubs should be able to go up and down the field all day long.

I also love the fact that this game is being played in the fast track of a dome. Since 2003, there has been 31 games played indoors in the NFL Playoffs. 23 of those games went over the posted total. Fully expect #24 on Sunday.

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys OVER 51.5

I always like playing overs when two great offenses are going at it in a dome. We also have pass defenses that are struggling. Green Bay is banged up and they boast the 2nd worst pass defense whereas the Cowboys are #26 defend through the air.

Bottomline here is that the hottest QB in the game, Aaron Rodgers, can torch ANY defense. They are a passing team which means a longer game as the clock isn't consistently moving. Both teams have big play capability and both defenses are susceptible to the big play. 4th quarters in Playoff games can get crazy as its do or die and teams don't hold anything back. A flurry of late points are always possible.

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Atlanta Falcons -5

The Atlanta Falcons offense at home is a freight train. I don't think anyone could stop them. They even scored 24 points on this Seattle defense IN Seattle, where it's nearly impossible to put up points and they should have had even more but the refs jobbed Julio Jones with a non call at the end. But there's a MONUMENTAL difference now. There is no Earl Thomas for Seattle. I believe his absence will show big time here. What's so impressive about this Falcons' offense is that they beat you both ways. They rank #3 in passing and #5 in rushing. You simply can't force them to play your way because they dominate both phases.

HFA (home field advantage) is obviously huge for this game. The knock on Seattle has always been playing away from home. They play exceptionally well in their building but they are vulnerable on the road. It showed again this year with another losing record on the season away from CenturyLink.

Will post some more thoughts later. Wanted to at least get this one out for you guys with a few notes.

40* NFL Saturday BEST BET

Seattle Seahawks -8

It's hard to believe but the Detroit Lions are attracting the most tickets than any team right now in the Wild Card Round. Well, what do we do when the public loves a team? We fade it. I'll gladly fade the Lions in this spot.

Detroit has limped into the Playoffs, losing 3 straight. You never want to back a team that is falling apart at the end of the season. They typically have quick exits. Detroit went from having possibly the #2 seed and a 1st Round Bye, then could have won the Division had a home playoff game and the #4 seed but instead, they are the #6 and have to play in the toughest place in the NFL, Seattle. Detroit is in big trouble here and is ripe for a letdown.

The Lions are in a terrible scheduling situation. This is their 3rd road contest in their last 4 games and they are playing their 3rd game in just 12 days. It doesn't get much worse than that. Actually, yes it does. The Lions haven't won a road playoff game since EISENHOWER was President (1957!)

Seattle comes into this game coming off their first and only home loss of the season. They have always been a great bet to bounce back at home. They have also won 9 straight home playoffs games with an average double digit margin of victory. This game has Seattle written all over it and to be perfectly honest with you guys, if this line was -7 or less, this would be a huge play for us. Still love this play for 4% laying under double digits and this is a great leg for all you teaser lovers out there. 

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

New York Giants vs. Washington Redskins OVER 44.5

Well, we went with the Skins over the total last week as our total of the week and it cashed easily. We're going back to the well here and basically for the same reasons. The Skins, especially at home, are over machines. 9 of the last 10 home games and 21 of the last 27 games overall have gone over the total for the Redskins. There's a simple reason for this over success. Amazing offense with terrible defense.

The Giants have been solid on defense of late and they have been on an under tear (part of why this total is low) but this game means nothing to the Giants. As the case in almost all sports, when games don't mean much, defense takes a back seat. I don't expect the Giants to have the same level of intensity on the defensive end here but they still can have some fun on the offensive side of the ball against this dreadful 3rd down Redskins defense. 45 is not that many points for a Redskins game and we'll gladly take the over.

50* NFL Christmas MAX BET

Pittsburgh Steelers -5

The two main factors landing us on the Steelers is the obvious revenge angle for Pittsburgh (lost 4 straight in this series) and the fact that the Ravens have been a disaster away from home this season. The Ravens are just 1-5 ATS on the road this year (lost 5 straight) and these losses haven't been against the greatest competition. They lost outright to the Jets, barely won straight up against the Jags (lost ATS), and went down 20-0 to the Browns, but won 25-20. However, they failed to cover the number.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are arguably playing the best ball in the NFL right now. They have won 5 straight and what's so impressive about this is that they won 4 of these on the road. Big Ben is nearly unstoppable at home in December. The Steelers have covered the number in 13 of their last 16 in the final month of the season. This is a HUGE spot for the Steelers as they can clinch the division and knock their hated rivals out of the playoffs in the process. Look for the Steelers to take care of business at Heinz Field and if they do so, I expect this team to make a deep run in the post season. 

Injury update: As noted, this was going to be a 5% play if Jimmy Smith was ruled out. He is clearly their difference maker on defense. When he is playing, the Ravens are the #1 defense and #6 against the pass. With him out, Baltimore is the #27 defense and DEAD LAST (#32) against the pass!

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Washington Redskins vs. Chicago Bears OVER 47

The Redskins are a clear cut over team. In fact, 20 of their last 26 games have gone over the posted total. They have a fantastic offense but a terrible defense. The Skins are a pass first team (which is always a sign of an over club.) They are ranked #3 in total yards and #2 in passing yards. However, their defense is a train wreck, especially on 3rd down. They give up first downs on nearly HALF of their 3rd and longs. They are ranked #29 in the NFL in yards allowed.

Part of why this total is low is because the Bears are only averaging 17.7 points per game but if you look closer, they have averaged 22.8 points per game since Barkley took over at QB. The Chicago Bears are playing inspired and much better football now. This team didn't quit last week and scored 17 unanswered 4th quarter points against the improved Packers defense. I expect them to hold up their end of the bargain on the offense end in this game.

The trends in this game also scream to the over. Washington has gone over the total in 6 straight following a loss and is 13-3 when facing a team with a losing record. They have also gone over the total in 4 straight road games.

50* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR

San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons OVER 50

The Atlanta Falcons are playing at home. One word, points. The Dirty Birds have gone over the total in EVERY one of their home games this season with an average combined score of 63 points per game, which is tops in the league. This team can score on anybody. They managed 23 at Denver, 24 at Seattle, and 42 at Los Angeles! What do you think they will do against the worst (#32 ranked) defense in the 49ers?

What's key here is that BOTH defenses are terrible. As mentioned before, the 49ers are the worst but Atlanta is ranked 28th and they are near the bottom in almost every category, which includes dead last against the pass. As long as San Francisco isn't totally inept and can manage a couple TDs, Atlanta clearly should be able to fill in the rest.

A lot has been made now about west coast teams traveling east to play an early start time in recent years. There isn't much value in that system anymore, and I never was a huge believer in it anyway, but what's not talked about is the fact that these games are featuring a ton of points.

With this game not being, for a lack of a better word, big game, this contest should be a shootout with defenses taking a back seat with little to no intensity.

40* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5

It's never a bad thing to back a team that's on a winning streak. Tampa Bay is playing some of the best football in the entire league right now. During their 4 game win streak, they destroyed Chicago, did the near impossible by beating the Chiefs IN Kansas City, suffocated the Seahawks, and avoided almost a sure letdown and beat San Diego on the road. The Saints are polar opposite.

Besides sneaking out a win vs. Seattle at home, this team has beat up on a few cupcakes and that was it. They won an emotional home game against the Rams and trounced the dreadful 49ers. Last week was telling on who/what the Saints are as a football team. They were completely out played at home, which all but ended their hopes at the playoffs. They have to finish the season with 3 out of 4 on the road against TB, Arizona, and Atlanta. All I can say is "good luck." Some quit might come over these Saints players if they get down in this game. Part of why they are so bad is that dumpster fire secondary and defense. They might get embarrassed with how hot the passing attack is for Tampa Bay right now. 

This line is low because of the Bucs history at home against the number. However, this has given us solid value especially with this game being under a field goal. TB is getting hot at the right time. All signs point to buy on the Buccaneers and sell on the Saints.

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Washington Redskins -1

As up to right now, this game is the Washington Redskins season. They lose this winnable game here and drop 3 in a row, stick a fork in them. However, they are right back in the thick of things with a strong performance Sunday. Washington is expected to have Jordan Reed and Trent Williams back for this game, which should give a huge boost to this already potent offense that ranks #2 in the NFL. The problem with the Skins is their defense but they are facing an Eagles offense that is stuck in the mud. After a hot 3-0 start, the Eagles have lost 7 of 9, 5 of 6, and 3 straight. Part of this is because Carson Wentz has regressed big time. His decision making has been horrendous and he is forcing balls into tight coverage. The Eagles have only scored 42 points COMBINED during their 3 game losing streak. 

If there was one game where the Redskins defense had their best game, it was against the Eagles. They had 5 sacks on Wentz and the Eagles didn't score an offensive TD (KO return and pick 6.) Washington has won 4 straight and covered 5 straight vs. the Eagles. The Skins are also 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

50* NFL Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE YEAR

Seattle Seahawks -7

Man, where do I even begin? For starters, Carolina is one of the worst bets on the road in the NFL. They are just 1-4 straight up this season away from Charlotte and have covered the spread twice in their last 9 road contests. For all this Panther bashing, we actually had Carolina last week on the road, but that was because of a TERRIBLE spot for Oakland and they (Carolina) still only managed to cover by the hook, when they should have won the game. After coming back and blowing the late lead, I feel as that was the straw that broke the camel's back on this Panther season. Yes, they still have a slim chance to make the playoffs, but they have to win out and it starts by having to win a back-to-back west coast road game at the toughest place to play in the game (Seattle) against the best defense in the league. Good luck with that. If they fall behind early and the crowd starts roaring, goodnight Carolina.

Seattle's weakness has always been the road and they proved that yet again with a real stinker at Tampa Bay. Russell Wilson had one of the worst games of his career and it had the feeling as if Seattle was simply looking past the Buccaneers. You know they are going to have a focused week of practice after that poor showing and they should bounce back nicely here. The Seahawks are an amazing 20-8 ATS following a straight up loss. Another angle I love about this game is that Seattle has playoff revenge. You always remember what team ended your season the year prior, and what better way to get back at them by blowing them out on your home turf.

50* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Carolina Panthers vs. Oakland Raiders OVER 49

To paraphrase this game, the Panthers go over when playing on the road and the Raiders go over when playing at home. They are both 15-6 their last 21 in that spot. We should see more of the same here as the Raiders pass offense is one of the best in the game going up against the dreadful Panthers pass defense/secondary. The Raiders defense is also very poor and rank toward the bottom in multiple categories.

Another key for this game is the situation for both teams. Oakland comes off the short week, coming from Mexico, in the altitude. This team has got to be tired and tired legs impacts the defensive side of the ball more, in my opinion. It takes more effort to chase down guys and tackle them than it does to out run a defender. Carolina played Thursday Night Football and has had the extra time to prepare. Carolina is the type of team that usually plays to the pace of their opponent and since Oakland is the type of team looking for a shootout, I am expecting exactly that Sunday afternoon.

50* NFL Thanksgiving MAX BET 

Washington Redskins +7

Too much Cowboy love here. I am totally shocked the Redskins are getting a touchdown. This is a fierce rivalry. You see it constantly in these big rivalry games, especially in this series...no matter what their records are at the time, these games are always close and competitive.

The Cowboys win streak is overshadowing the fact the Redskins are on fire as well. Besides the first game of the season for the Skins, they have been in every ball game. They are now 6-1-1 since starting the season 0-2. Their 2nd game of the season against these Cowboys could have easily been a victory but Kirk Cousins' huge mistake in the end zone cost them that game. Since then, this Redskins offense has been on fire and they are protecting Cousins. Their offense is Top 3 in almost every category. I think the Redskins have an excellent chance of stealing this game outright and it looks like this contest is going to go down to the wire. The Cowboys win streak started against Washington, and I think it has a great chance to end here with the Redskins.

50* Sunday Night Football TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Redskins OVER 50

This Green Bay defense has been a nightmare. For starters, they're not healthy, but they are still getting gashed in recent form. They have allowed 30+ in 4 of their last 5 games and in 3 straight. Tennessee dropped nearly FIFTY, that's right, FIVE-ZERO. Another reason for this is because the Green Bay defense doesn't get any breaks, because the offense only throws the ball so barely any time is coming off the clock, which is GREAT for us over bettors. Rodgers has attempted 45, 42, 56, 38, 43, and 51 passes in his last 6 games. Kirk Cousins has thrown the ball over 30 times all but once this season. Both these two teams are pass happy, which can lead to quick scores and interceptions that lead to short fields.

The Redskins offense has been stellar this season. They are 2nd in the league in yards per play, 4th in totals yards, and 3rd in passing yards. They have also gone over the total in 7 straight home games and 16 of their last 21. The Packers have gone over the total in 5 of their last 6 coming off a loss. This game has sub par defenses and terrific passing attacks. It has an air it out, shootout written all over it.

50* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Buffalo Bills +3

The Buffalo Bills have shown that when they are focused, they can play with anyone. Just look at what they did to the Patriots. Granted, Brady was absent, but they still managed to do the near impossible...SHUT OUT the mighty Patriots at home. This game for me is all about the ground. Buffalo's rushing attack can run on anyone. They are ranked #2 in the NFL with 155 yards a game going up against the Bengals 24th ranked run defense. The Bills impressed the hell out of me going into Seattle and running all over that stout defense of the Seahawks. It was a tough loss but now they get the bye week and the extra time to prepare. This is just like what we explained with the NFC GOM on the Redskins that cashed. It's a good bet to back teams that went into the bye off a loss rather than a win. The Bengals look like the wheels are falling off after that tough beat on Monday Night Football (short week for them) and Marvin Lewis' time looks all but over in Cincinnati. 

40* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Pittsburgh Steelers ML -134

The stock couldn't be higher on the Dallas Cowboys right now. It's time to sell. Everyone is running to bet the Cowboys for this game but there's a reason the Steelers are the favorite. Steelers have always been a great bet, against the spread, versus teams with a winning record and off a loss. My sources have informed me that several max bets from key players are on Pittsburgh and experts I trust LOVE the Steelers here. 

50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Washington Redskins -2.5

The Minnesota Vikings are in a downward spiral. They undoubtably have the worst offense in the NFL. Their line play is atrocious, as they average 2.7 yards per carry on the ground and just 4.7 yards per play, which is worst in the NFL. The Washington Redskins are the 2nd best team in the NFL on yards per play at 6.2 on offense. The Skins weakness is their rush defense but the Vikings run game is so pathetic that the Skins can over come this in the other phases of the game and since Minnesota is so inept on the ground.

The Redskins are also coming off the bye week. They entered the bye coming off a loss and a tie. I love taking teams going into the bye week on a bad note (loss/tie) rather than off a win. Team's going in off a loss/tie, give that extra effort in preparation. We see it all the time when teams go into the bye on a winning note, they are flat the next week. Just look at the Vikings this season. They were on fire going into the bye week and haven't won since. 

This may be a little "coulda, shoulda, woulda" but the Skins could easily be 7-1, at least 6-2. They had a 17-13 lead against the Lions with 50 seconds left and it took Matthew Stafford heroics (with Norman out) to win that game. They then missed a chip shot FG in OT vs. the Bengals to win the game and a Kirk Cousins brainfart in the end zone cost them against the Cowboys in the 4th quarter. Bottomline here is that this team is better than their 4-3-1 record and Minnesota is worse than their 5-3 record.

40* NFL SHOOTOUT OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers vs. Tennessee Titans OVER 49

The Titans are on an over tear right now. 6 straight games have gone over the total. Their last 4 games have had combined scores of 54, 60, 58, and 78. They are going up against a Packers defense that is injured and looking like swiss cheese in recent form. However, the Packers can still put up their share of points and their 2 minute hurry up offense is for real. Green Bay is struggling because they can not run the ball. Teams that throw the ball a lot are good for overs because the clock doesn't move as much. 

40*

40*

New England Patriots -5

4*

San Diego Chargers vs. Atlanta Falcons OVER 54

Not going to over think this one. Two elite passing teams and the two top offenses in the game. Atlanta's pass defense has been poor and offenses usually excel in the domes. Both teams average over this many points in their games this season. There's too many ways for this game to go over. The last time the Falcons had a game lined at 54, the final score was 45-32. The last time for the Chargers...35-34.

4* NFL BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK

Green Bay Packers -4

The Dallas Cowboys had their huge statement game last week against the Bengals. Dallas is a solid football team but now is the time to sell them this week. Their stock is high as ever right now and this line is too low. Let's not forget that the Cowboys have failed to covered the spread in 6 straight games facing a team with a winning record.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are close to unstoppable at home. A big reason is that rush defense. They haven't allowed more than 50 yards in a game, are allowing only 1.99 yards a carry, and have allowed just 171 yards through 4 games. That's insanely good. This is going to force the Cowboys to throw the ball and this is where Dak could finally make a mistake. Dez Bryant being absent is going to have a noticeable effect here.

A little inside info for you guys (that hasn't been really covered on sports media outlets) is that Lambeau Field plays different than most fields. They have a special type of grass there which makes it difficult to jump off the line of scrimmage and get your footing. This make a WORLD of difference for defensive lineman. That half second jump time is the difference between a sack and a deep TD to Jordy Nelson. There's a reason Rodgers is superhuman at home and is very tough to sack.

5* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR

Kansas City Chiefs +1.5

Andy Reid off the bye week. He is 15-2 straight up and 12-5 against the spread. It's also a GREAT situational bet to back a team that goes into the bye week off an ugly loss. The last thing everyone remembers about the KC Chiefs is that embarrassing beatdown against the Steelers in primetime. KC has now had two weeks to stew over that defeat and prepare for the Raiders. They should come out focused and fired up.

Oakland is over-valued now. They have been fortunate to win some of these games and definitely should have lost last week against the Chargers, but the Chargers did what they always do, and shot themselves in the foot. Oakland is known for choking when they are supposed to win. This team has been as bad as it gets as the favorite. The Raiders are 7-23 ATS laying points and are 35-68 ATS at home.

4* 

San Diego Chargers +3.5

The Oakland Raiders are known for choking when they are expected to win. This team has been awful as a favorite. They are 7-22 ATS laying points and are 35-67 ATS at home. The underdog has covered in 12 of the last 14 meetings between these two. If San Diego didn't fall apart in the 4th quarter, the Chargers would be undefeated. I know that's a lot of "shoulda, coulda, woulda" but it shows that this team is better than their 1-3 record and certainly should not be over FG underdogs.  

5* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH

Baltimore Ravens -3.5

LOVE the Ravens to bounce back after their first loss of the season. Baltimore should own this Redskins defense. The Skins have a Bottom 3 defense. It is just awful. Washington is the WORST team on 3rd down this year, giving up nearly 9 yards a play. The Ravens are the 2nd BEST. More often than not, Football really comes down to two things; How you perform on 3rd down and turnovers. Well, the Redskins can't stop anyone on 3rd down, where the Ravens are getting off the field and Kirk Cousins is one of the most turnover prone QBs in the game. 

5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Houston Texans -4

This line has dropped too much now and its time to strike. This opener was 7 and then the news came out about JJ Watt and it started to fall. We know JJ Watt is one of, if not, the best defensive players in the league. However, he isn't worth 3 points. He is worth 1 point MAX. He is a beast at the line of scrimmage but he isn't a QB or even a middle linebacker (who quarterbacks the defense.) Furthermore, I love backing teams when their star player is out. This works exceptionally well in the NBA also. It gives the players that extra motivation and they rally around eachother to pick up the slack. 

Everyone's last memory of the Texans is that awful performance they gave against the New England Patriots on Thursday Night Football. Knee jerk reaction is that this team is terrible because they couldn't beat a 3rd string QB. The Texans have had 10 days to stew on that loss and it's usually a great bet to back a team off of their worst loss of the season. Just look the Rams. They were being called the "Worst team in the NFL" after their 28-0 primetime defeat against San Francisco. The Rams took out the Seattle Seahawks the next week and are now 2-1 on the season.

The Houston Texans have owned the Tennessee Titans and they have done it without a stud QB. Houston has covered 5 straight against Tennessee. They also are 20-8 ATS after scoring 2 TDs or less in their previous game. As for the Titans, this team has been the worst bet for several years now. In the past 3 and a half years, the Titans have covered the spread only 14 times. The are also just 3-21-3 in the AFC South division. 

5* NFL Non-Conference GAME OF THE YEAR

Pittsburgh Steelers -3

PLEASE READ:

There are two ways to attack this game. If you can't get the 3, buy the hook. Also recommend parlaying Pittsburgh Steelers moneyline with Miami Dolphins moneyline.

I have the Steelers as the 2nd best team in the NFL right now, behind the Patriots. This offense is the real deal and their defense has been stifling the first two weeks. One of my simple rules in the NFL is who has the better QB and who has the better coach. Well, Pittsburgh has both of them by a landslide. 

The Eagles and Wentz are getting way too much hype right now. I will admit, they did burn us on Monday Night, but I believe that game was lost by Jay Cutler (usually is) than Wentz winning the game. The Eagles only averaged 4 yards a play in that game. That will not get it done. They also benefitted from short fields due to turnovers. Think about who Philly has beaten. They won at home against the worst team in the league (Cleveland) and then beat arguably the 2nd worst team in the league, the Bears.

This is a monumental mismatch in all 3 phases of the game. I even say special teams because the Eagles had a horrific gaff (punting in the middle of the field on max protection) on a punt vs. the Bears that lead to a TD.

Even though this is a home game for the Eagles, the spots favors the Steelers. Pittsburgh played at home last week and going to Philadelphia is right in their back yard, so no travel issues there. The Eagles are playing on the short week, since they played MNF, and the Eagles are 0-5 ATS the following Sunday after playing Monday Night Football.

The Eagles true colors will show this Sunday. If they somehow take this one from the mighty Steelers, then I will be a true believer. However, I am expecting this game to get ugly. Barring turnovers, there isn't ANY reason why the Steelers don't punish the birds.

4* NFL TOP PLAY SHOOTOUT

San Diego Chargers vs. Indianapolis Colts OVER 51

The Colts are an over team, especially at home. I firmly believe if you took the over blindly in every Colts home game this season, you would come out on top. The Colts are extremely banged up on the defensive end and honestly, even if they were heathy, this D is still bad. So far, Indy has allowed 73 points and a 74% COMPLETION percentage. Philip Rivers should have a field day in the dome. These are two teams that love to throw the ball. Indy uses passing plays on 69% of their drives.

The Chargers defense isn't that special either. They got gashed by Kansas City and the Chiefs aren't known for their offensive prowess. Going back to last season, The Chargers have given up at least 24 points in 10 of their last 11 games. This game should be an offensive showcase with a ton of passing and a lot of missed assignments on defense.

5* NFL SHOOTOUT OF THE MONTH

New Orleans Saints vs. New York Giants OVER 52.5

Get this one NOW! I expect this one to close at 54-55 or even higher

We took the Saints over last week and we'll do it again this week. We stated that the Saints had the worst defense last season and that their games averaged 55 points. Nothing has changed much. They still have that potent offense but a dreadful defense. They now play another team, the Giants, that have a terrific offense and a suspect defense.

Since 2009, these two teams have met 4 times and each game has featured a TON of scoring.

2009: 48-27 (75 points)

2011: 49-24 (73 points)

2012: 52-27 (79 points)

2014: 52-49 (101 points)

Not going to over think this one. Two pass happy offenses that can stretch the field. Not much has change with these two teams since 2009. Drew Brees and Eli Manning are still under center with terrific weapons around them. 

4* NFL BLOWOUT GAME OF THE WEEK

Carolina Panthers -13.5

From a situational stand point, this is a great spot for the Panthers and a terrible spot for the 49ers. The Panthers come off a tough loss on Thursday Night where the 49ers come off an impressive shutout victory on Monday Night. Immediate knee jerk reaction is that the Panthers might not be as good and that the 49ers are better than we thought. 

San Francisco did this exact thing on Monday Night Football Week 1 of last year, destroying the Vikings, but still ended up being one of the worst teams in the NFL. Well what did the 49ers do in Week 2? They got CRUSHED by the Steelers 43-18. The Steelers were also coming off a loss in Week 1 and played their home opener in Week 2, just like the Panthers do this season. I expect a similar result here. SF played on the short week (since it was MNF) and had to travel to the East Coast. The Panthers have had since Thursday to prepare off their heartbreaking loss and will no doubt want to lay a beat down to SF at home. 

Don't be fooled, the 49ers are still a bad team. If they get down early in this game, Goodnight San Francisco. They don't have the type of offense to scramble from behind, especially against this ferocious defense of the Carolina Panthers.

4* MNF Rams/49ers BEST BET

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 45

(This line has dropped now from 45 all the way to 43-42. I would downgrade to 3% at that number and is a NO play below 42.)

We'll call this line inflation the Chip Kelly factor. These two teams haven't changed much from last season. Both teams don't really have the offensive fire power for a shootout but they do have decent defenses. I wouldn't be surprised to see this line actually climb back up as we get closer to kick-off with the public bets coming in on the over for a primetime game. Both QB's will be game manager types here featuring short passes and a TON of running. It's almost always a good bet taking the under with teams that have a lot of rushing attempts because the clock will continue to run and shorten the game. 

The Rams and 49ers have been total UNDER teams. The Rams have gone under in 39 of their 56 road games, which includes 6 of their last 7. San Francisco has gone under the total in 18 of their last 23 home games. Division battles typically go under because of the familiarity they have with each other. 4 of the last 5 meetings have gone under the total between these two clubs and this game shouldn't be any different.

5* AFC GAME OF THE MONTH

Baltimore Ravens -3

This one comes down to 4 major factors. Baltimore has the better QB, the better head coach, they are at home, and are looking to bounce back from one of the worst seasons in franchise history. I think the Ryan brothers are as over-rated as it gets, especially Rob Ryan. The big problem with the Ryan regime is discipline. Rex Ryan's teams have always been highly penalized on the field. You simply cannot afford to make dumb penalties on the road. All it takes is one personal foul or unsportsmanlike conduct penalty to extend a drive that allows the crowd to go berserk and it will give ALL the momentum to the home team.

Everyone is all over Tyrod Taylor this year. Even the TV show "Ballers" talks about how "great" he is at quarterback. I'm not buying it. I think he will regress this season. Let's not forget, Tyrod was on the Ravens for a good portion of his career, so they should know his tendencies pretty well. Bottomline here is that the Bills are still the Bills (the team that seems like they lose on purpose) and the Ravens are the team that are always in the playoff picture. Ravens roll at home.

4* NFL TOP PLAY SHOOTOUT

Oakland Raiders vs. New Orleans Saints OVER 51

The New Orleans Saints simply go over the total when playing at home. Yes, their offense usually is firing on all cylinders at the Superdome, but their defense plays a big role in that as well. Last year the Saints were ranked dead last (32nd) in scoring defense and 31st in total defense. New Orleans scores a bunch but also gives up a lot. In fact, the average total score for a Saints game last season was 55 points. They take on a young Raiders team that has a ton of offensive firepower. Derek Carr, along with Amari Cooper, showed last year that they can really stretch the field. They averaged 5.4 yards per play but also gave up 5.5 yards. This game should be a "who has the ball last, wins."

4* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Chicago Bears +6

5* NFL Thursday Night Football MAX BET

Carolina Panthers -3

There's one simple rule for me when handicapping the NFL. Who's got the better QB and who has the better Coach. Well, CLEARLY Carolina has the better QB. The Broncos are in some real trouble at the quarterback position. I know they do have one of, if not, the best defenses in the game. but Carolina's defense is pretty darn good as well. The Denver defense isn't going to matter a whole lot when they're turning the ball over deep in their own territory. Cam Newton gets the monster 6 foot 6 Wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin back for this game. This is going to really open up this already potent attack.

I get the whole story about the Super Bowl hangover and the Super Bowl losers doing terribly ATS, but I believe this year is different. This is the first time the Super Bowl winner will have a change at QB in 15 years. Huge revenge angle here for Carolina. We know the Panthers only had 1 loss last year (besides the Super Bowl) and how did they respond...by covering the spread by 18 points. Rivera has always done well following a loss. This team also dominates when they are listed as the favorite. Since 2013, only the Vikings and the Packers have better winning percentages as a favorite than the Panthers do. Carolina also averages beating those spreads by nearly 5 points a game. 

Bottomline here is that Carolina is going to stack the box and make whoever starts for them (Denver) at QB to beat them through the air. As long as the Panthers don't get bit by the injury or turnover bug in this game, they cruise to a 7+ point victory.

(Still have a couple weeks before the season starts. Make sure to check back before game day to see if there are any added updates.)

**Trevor Siemian is starting at QB. Who knows, this guy could come out and become the next Tom Brady but I highly doubt it. He was awful his senior year at Northwestern. He completed just over 50% of his passes, had 11 INTs, and just 7 TDs. He also averaged just 5 YARDS PER PASSING ATTEMPT! At the end of the day, I realize this might be the "square" or "public" play, but how does a hungry Cam Newton looking to bounce back from his worst performance ever in the Super Bowl, not beat (what I'm calling) "The WORST starting QB for a defending Super Bowl Champion...of ALL TIME"

50* NFL PLAYOFFS TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos OVER 45

This is definitely a contrarian play to say the least and I believe this total is too low. We all know the stories of these two defenses, but this Panther's offense is the best in the NFL. When looking at the previous Super Bowls, the numbers are eye-popping for the over. In last 40 Super Bowls, the over has cashed 24 times. What's most intriguing is the number for this posted total. This is tied for the 6th lowest total for the last 25 Super Bowls. You know what happened to 5 of those 6? You guessed it. They all FLEW over. The only one that didn't go over the total missed by 1 lowsy point and Buffalo Bills fans know that if Scott Norwood connects, we're saying a perfect 6 for 6 on this write up. 

The last 3 years the Super Bowl has gone over the total and the reason I am bringing this up is because those games all featured at least one amazing defense, if not two. Seattle was in back to back Super Bowls with their Legion of Boom and Super Bowl 47 between the 49ers and Ravens is eerily similar to this one. Both teams were known for their defenses and most suspected a low scoring game. That game turned out to be the highest scoring Super Bowl of the decade and almost was more points as the Ravens came up with a goal line stand at the end to seal the deal.

As for the game breakdown, the Carolina Panthers have scored less than 20 points just once this year and that was a Week 16 loss to the Falcons. They have also scored over 33 points in 7 of their last 9, and they have managed over 27 in 15 of their last 16 games. Needless to say, that's one hell of an offense. Almost every single trend for the Panthers have them going over the total. Some key ones: The Panthers are 6-0 to the over after a 14+ point win, have gone over the total in 4 straight playoff games, and 20 of their last 28 games have eclipsed the number facing a team with a winning record.

The Super Bowl typically starts out lower scoring as teams do play more conservatively and try not to make mistakes. But as the game goes on, the pace becomes frantic and teams don't hold anything back. They take more shots, try trick plays, and go all out knowing this is the final game of the season and there is no tomorrow. I like to breakdown the total when it's between 42-45 like this...As long as each team can score 3 touchdowns, we're good, because if the score is 21-21 there has to be another score (most likely, at least a field goal) and therefore, will cash the ticket for us. 

PROPS: CHECK BACK HERE. Will be adding props throughout the week.

Multiple props to come when they become more widely available...

Going to take almost every Demaryius Thomas prop UNDER. So far I see his total yardage at 67.5 and his total receptions at 5.5. Love the total receptions under. I expect Norman to completely take him out of the game. Thomas is also prone to the dropped ball early on.

40* Ronnie Hillman UNDER 11.5 rushing attempts.

Von Miller OVER 3 tackles (solo + assisted)

40* One of our TOP PLAY props with the be 2nd half + OT to outscore the 1st half.

As explained a bit earlier, teams do play conservatively to start the game and open it up more later on. In the past 49 Super Bowls, 30 of them have had a higher scoring 2nd half than 1st which includes 13 of the last 17. It almost cashed last year but it came up a yard short and we all know how that ended. 

Here are the totals for the Super Bowls since Y2K:

2015 1st half: 28 pts / 2nd half - 24 pts - LOSS

2014 1st half: 22 pts / 2nd half - 29 pts - WIN

2013 1st half: 27 pts / 2nd half - 38 pts - WIN

2012 1st half: 19 pts / 2nd half - 19 pts - Push

2011 1st half: 31 pts / 2nd half - 25 pts - LOSS

2010 1st half: 16 pts / 2nd half - 32 pts - WIN

2009 1st half: 24 pts / 2nd half - 26 pts - WIN

2008 1st half: 10 pts / 2nd half - 21 pts - WIN

2007 1st half: 30 pts / 2nd half - 16 pts - LOSS

2006 1st half: 10 pts / 2nd half - 21 pts - WIN

2005 1st half - 14 pts / 2nd half - 31 pts - WIN

2004 1st half - 24 pts / 2nd half - 37 pts - WIN

2003 1st half - 23 pts / 2nd half - 46 pts - WIN

2002 1st half - 17 pts / 2nd half - 20 pts - WIN

2001 1st half - 10 pts / 2nd half - 31 pts - WIN

2000 1st half - 9 pts / 2nd half - 30 pts - WIN

These next few props piggy back off our total and 2nd half play.

-3rd quarter outscore 1st quarter

-1st quarter UNDER 9.5

-Score in the first 6 minutes of the game? NO

I know it seems strange that we are taking these unders to start the game, when we have the over. A: This is typical for the Super Bowl to play out that way and B: It also allows as protection because if these plays lose, it's very likely the game is going over. However, I still really like our chances to win both. 

Below are PROPS that will be played for 5* unless noted. I recommend to shop around this week and try to find the best outs/numbers for these plays. More could be added/dropped throughout this week. Most props will be played for 5* or 0.5%. 10*=1%

Peyton Manning for MVP. This prop is basically a small bet on the Denver Broncos. Denver to win outright is currently +200. Taking Manning to win MVP is +400. If Denver wins the Super Bowl, I believe the NFL will do whatever it can to give Manning the MVP trophy for his last rodeo.

shortest FG under 26.5 yards......Cam Newton throws INT........Denver to +7.5 (alternate line)........score in the final 2:30 minutes of the half YES..........cam over 39.5 rushing yards.......shortest td of game under 1.5........greg olsen more yards better than demaryius thomas........10* peyton over 21.5 completions.........peyton under 39.5 attempts.........peyton under 34.5 longest completion........10* peyton manning over 1 td.......sanders over 5 receptions.......sanders over 69.5 yards.......10*norwood over 17.5 yards total…..10*norwood longest reception over 12.5......owen daniels over 2.5 receptions......denver to punt first.......denver first timeout......panthers punt first before scoring a td......10*Kuechly over 8.5 tackles....10*Thomas Davis over 5.5 tackles

50* NFL MAX BET

New England Patriots ML -160

I'll start with this...The New England Patriots will be Super Bowl 50 Champions. At the beginning of the season we had our 70* BIGGEST PLAY OF THE SEASON on the New England Patriots season win total OVER 10 wins. They were also our pick to win the Super Bowl and we're sticking to it. Most of the reasoning behind this was the "Deflategate" controversy. The Patriots played with a gigantic chip on their shoulders and they had a ton of motivation to win it again. But back to why you are here and that's the game breakdown.

New England has revenge from their loss earlier in the season at Denver. This is big for New England as now they can prepare from recent film/strategies on this team. It's no secret that the Patriots have the best coach in the league and arguably one of, if not, the best of all time. He is outstanding at making adjustments and taking away what you do best. Another huge factor in their last game was injuries. Edelman and Amendola were out and Gronkowski left during the game. We have seen what that can do to the Patriots offense. Well, they're all healthy coming into this game. 

I expect New England to make Manning beat them. Denver is clearly a run first team and they rely heavily on their defense. Peyton simply can't make the throws like he used to. Peyton was the worst QB in the league, statistically, prior to his injury earlier in the year. Watching the Bronco's AFC Divisional game against the Steelers, there were clear holes in the secondary for the Bronco's D. Big Ben was burning them for big plays on blown zone assignments. The Patriots should be able to eat them alive if they continue to make mistakes. 

Bottomline is that Brady and Belichick are the masters of the playoffs and Peyton Manning is the choke artist of the post-season. We have seen it year after year. Going to take the points out of the equation and just ask the best team of the generation to stamp their ticket to yet another Super Bowl.

Side notes: Found some numbers I just had to share with you guys. With Edelman in the lineup this season, the New England Patriots are 10-0 winning by over 2 touchdowns a game. Also, Tom Brady has more touchdowns (3) this season in Denver than Peyton Manning does (2) in Denver this year. That is mind-blowing. Another big factor here is the injury to Chris Harris. He's playing practically with one arm and you must challenge these New England wide outs at the line of scrimmage or you are doomed. It's going to be tough for Denver to adjust to this extremely high paced offense of the Patriots if they start getting on a roll.

50* NFL TOTAL MAX BET

Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers OVER 44

Everyone knows about the great defenses of these two teams but what most don't talk about are their terrific offenses. These teams can put up points in bunches. This is definitely a contrarian play to say the least and I believe this total is too low. 

The Carolina Panthers have scored less than 20 points just once this year and that was a Week 16 loss to the Falcons. They have also scored over 33 points in 6 of their last 7, and they have managed over 27 in 13 of their last 14 games. Needless to say, that's one hell of an offense. Almost every single trend for the Panthers have them going over the total. Some key ones: The Panthers have gone over the total in 5 straight after allowing less than 15 points and they are 5-0 to the over after a 14+ point win. 

As for the Seattle Seahawks, they have really turned it on towards the end of the season on the offensive side of the ball. They have scored over 29 points in 7 of their last 8 games. Their last game against Minnesota was extremely low scoring but that was clearly due to the weather but I believe it has given us great value here. The Seahawks are 4-1 to the over after scoring 15 or less points the previous game and have gone over the total in 8 of their last 11 games facing a team with a winning record. 

I expect both teams to be able to put 3 touchdowns a piece in this game. That would leave us with a 21-21 game. Obviously the game can't end in a tie, so with one more score, we cash this ticket.

BONUS NFL PLAY: Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos UNDER 20.5 1st HALF

50* NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR

New England Patriots -4.5

The headline of this game is that the Chiefs are hot and the Patriots are cold. KC has won 11 straight games now and New England has lost 2 straight. I do agree that the Chiefs have been playing well but they haven't played any competition. Just look at the Wild-Card game against the Texans. The final score was very misleading. This game was only 13-0 going in the 4th quarter and the lone TD was the opening kickoff return for a touchdown. If Bryan Hoyer wasn't a complete and utter failure that game could have been a lot closer. Alex Smith missed a few throws and two were huge. One was a walk in TD from deep and another was an INT right after Hoyer threw one. What do you think he'll do against the New England Patriots? I will admit however, we we're on the Chiefs in that game so we were happy with the outcome but I knew we were going to fade them if they drew New England this week.

Do you remember the last time these two teams met? Well if you don't, The Chiefs beat the living crap out of them on primetime at Arrowhead. All the talking heads said "BENCH BRADY and this is the end of the New England Patriots!" Look what they did after that. They won the Super Bowl! This team knows how to get motivated and they have the best coach in the business. New England simply does not lose 3 games in a row. Getting the extra week off was huge for this team as they needed to get healthy with some much needed rest. Hightower, Edelman, and Vollmer are back for this game and that his huge, especially LT Vollmer and Edelman, to drastically help Tom Brady and this offense. What Belichick does is he takes away what you do best. This is where the injury of Maclin will hurt dramatically. It is not certain that he will play, but even if he does, he will not be close to 100%. Reid has confirmed that he will be out of practice for the week but will still play even if he can't practice. Let me say that again, not practice the week you play the Patriots. There all also other key Chiefs sitting out of practice (Houston, Hali, Morse, and Duvernay-Tardif.)

Bottomline here is that the Patriots are the playoff experts and the Chiefs have been awful in the post-season. KC finally got the monkey off their backs with their first playoff win since forever but now are only 1-6 ATS their last 7 playoff games. Kansas City could be in for a bit of a letdown here.   The New England Patriots are just flat out unstoppable at Gillette Stadium and I fully expect them to advance to the Conference Championship.

50* NFL MAX BET

Washington Redskins -105

This line is pick em solely due to public perception. If you look closer, surprisingly the Washington Redskins are the better team. They come into this game as winners of 4 straight and 5 of their last 6. Kirk Cousins has been the MOST accurate passer in the history of the NFL at home this season. Let me give you that one more time. The MOST accurate EVER!

In this game today, you would think Aaron Rodgers is the better QB. Just on talent alone..he is, but with his teammates Kirk is the better QB and I'll tell you why. Aaron is the most sacked QB during the last half of the season and he has NO ONE to throw it too. His WRs and TEs are just way too slow. Kirk has much better weapons around him and his O line has been outstanding. The key here today is the Redskins secondary. If they come to play, this defensive line should have a field day against this banged up Packers club. 

The Packers limped into the postseason and the Redskins rolled into the playoffs. Momentum is real guys, look what the Chiefs did yesterday. YOU LIKE THAT? Skins!!

50* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals UNDER 47

The eye test tells us that Pittsburgh has an amazing offense and Cincy has a great defense. When looking closer at the Steelers, this will be their 3rd straight road games in as many weeks. Also, in their last 2 games, their offense has not looked impressive. In fact, the total combined score for both of those games were 40 and below. The Steelers have gone under the total in 7 of their last 9 road games. This is a very tough spot for Pittsburgh. 

We all know of Cincinnati's struggles in the postseason. Now with Dalton out, McCarron helps our case even more for the under. I see a very conservative game plan for Cincy. Almost just like Alabama in a way. Pound the rock and play great defense in a field position type game. The Bengals have gone under the total in 5 of their last 6 and is 4-1 their last 5 home games. 

A big key here is the fact that these two clubs are divisional opponents and that this will be the 3rd meetings this year between these two. This is definitely an advantage of the defenses. These teams know each other very well and they will know one another's next move. As the case with most unders, as long as we don't have bad turnovers giving the opponents short fields, this should be a low scoring defensive struggle.

40*

Kansas City Chiefs -3

Getting this one out now before it goes to -3.5 or higher

A money-line parlay with the Seattle Seahawks could be a solid option as well for 1% or 2%.

Yes, this is a very square play but I don't care. I just simply can't make a case for the Texans. The KC Chiefs are on fire, winners of 10 in a row. What's even more impressive is that they won all 4 of their road games and scored a ton of points during that span. The level of competition these two teams have played is a telling sign also. KC took out Pittsburgh, Denver, and Oakland twice. The Texans played in a complete joke of a division and beat up on bottom feeders. They did, however, beat 2 teams with winning records but TJ Yates was the QB. 

Bottomline here is that the Chiefs have one of the best defenses in the league and the Texans have a very mediocre offense. All this talk about the Texans defensive front but the Chiefs are in the top 5 in the NFL in sacks. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games in Houston and I expect them extend that streak to 5-1 here.

50* One & Only AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR

New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins UNDER 47

A lot of this play is a fade of Miami and their offense. They have not been able to get it going, especially when they play New England. The Dolphins have scored 20 or less (20, 20, 17, 13, 7, 0) in the last 6 games facing New England. Miami has also struggled their last 9 games offensively and they were playing some terrible defenses. They have scored above 20 points only once and are averaging just above 15 points per game. 

We know New England needs this game to claim HFA but they are ravaged with injuries. Their RB's, WR's, and O-Line are a mess right now. I expect the Patriots to try and just grind out a win here with solid defense and try to make sure no one gets hurt and be healthy for the post-season. 

50* NFL VEGAS INSIDER OF THE YEAR

New York Jets +3.5

Everyone and their mother is going to line up to bet the New England Patriots to basically just win the game. Already 70% of the tickets are on the Pats but this line could drop below the key number of 3. New England has a first round bye locked up and are ravaged with injuries. The Jets are in the playoff hunt right now and they need this game like blood. We already know both these teams don't like each other but what most people don't realize is that New York has covered the number in 5 straight meetings between these two. New England also hasn't covered the spread in 5 straight games facing a team with a winning record. All of my sources LOVE the Jets here and all of them are expecting an outright Jet victory.

50* MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Detroit Lions vs. New Orleans Saints OVER 51

Both teams are now eliminated from the playoffs. Usually when that happens late in the year, games become shootouts. When teams don't have much to play for, the defense usually takes the intensity down a notch and the teams put on a show. We have even a better spot for this tonight as the Saints have a terrible defense already and they have extremely high scoring games at the Superdome. Just look at the last few games there. 79, 62, 101, and 52. This should be back and forth tonight and with under the key number of 52 (7 TDs and a FG) this makes this the strongest total for Monday Night Football this year.

40* TOP PLAY PARLAY PACK

Cincinnati Bengals -4.5

I'll make this one short and sweet. This line is a total overreaction to the injury to Andy Dalton. He's not as big a factor to the offense as let's say, Aaron Rodgers. AJ McCarron has a ton of weapons around him and they have great success running the ball which will take a lot of pressure off him. The Bengals defense is why this team is successful. Look at what Johnny Manziel did to this 49ers defense and look what the 49ers did to the Browns defense. Exactly. As long as Aj protects the ball today, Bengals blowout.

40* TOP PLAY PARLAY PACK

Green Bay Packers -3

For all intents and purposes, this is a bigger game for the Packers. They still have a shot for a first round bye if they can get passed the Raiders here and defeat Arizona next week. But a loss here could really hurt their chances for the division crown. It looks like Green Bay has turned a corner with Mike back calling the plays. They are really focusing on the run and it they torched the Cowboy defense and that Cowboy D is for real. 

Oakland comes off a huge win to the rival Broncos and they have another division game on deck Thursday Night against the Chargers. This is a tough spot for Da Raiders. If Green Bay plays up to their potential, this should be a blowout.

50* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

New York Giants +5.5

This is the definition of a "pros" vs. "joes" game. Everyone is going to back the undefeated Panthers here and the short number. In fact 2 out of every 3 tickets are on them. But the line has dropped nearly 3 points since the opener. ALL of my sources are on the Gmen here. We have seen it over and over again, this Giants team can be anyone. When they are rolling, no one and I mean no one can stop them. They surely have the talent to take out this team and have the benefit of playing at home. Would not be shocked one bit to see the Giants hand Carolina their first loss of the season.

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

San Francisco 49ers vs. Cleveland Browns OVER 41

An old adage in the NFL is when a team from the NFC plays a team from the AFC, the game goes over. The teams aren't familiar with each other and it makes it tough for the defense (it's already tough for the defense in this day anyway) to stop the opposing offense. Another one is two teams that don't have much to play for late in the season usually light up the scoreboards. Just look at last week with Tennessee and Jacksonville. 

Blaine Gabbert has been playing very well the last few games and he's gone up against some solid defenses also. He threw for 264 and a TD against Seattle, 318 and a TD against Arizona, and had a fantastic game against the Bears. He also is very mobile and should be able to run against one of the worst rush defenses in the League.

The trends for this game are eye popping as well. San Fransisco has gone over the total is 5 of their last 6 on the road and is 7-1 their last 8 facing a team with a losing record. For the Browns, their games have gone over the total in 5 of their last 6 home games. A key trend for Cleveland is that they have gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 games when scoring less than 15 points their previous game. This shows that they make solid offensive adjustments after a poor performance. Look for both teams to play an exhibition type of game here that is free and easy, going back and forth.

50* NFL TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 50.5

Where do we even start with this one? Both teams can put up points quickly and both defenses are just terrible. Watching Pittsburgh light up Seattle was impressive. When Big Ben is under center, this may be the best offense in the league. They have exceptional playmakers and ridiculous speed from the skill positions. Anyone at anytime can score. Pittsburgh should have won that game (or at least covered,) but the Steeler defense isn't the Steeler defense we know. I don't know if I have seen a worse 3rd down defense. It's mainly impart that their pass defense is ranked 30th.

Indianapolis has been just fine on offense with Hasselbeck. He is clearly capable of scoring points on the Pittsburgh defense. Good news for us over bettors is that Indy is one of the best teams converting 3rd downs. So we have a solid 3rd down offense against a horrible 3rd down defense. The problem with Indy is their defense as well. They have trouble defending the pass also. They rank just 27th in the NFL.

Bottomline here is that both teams should have tremendous success through the air in this one. We have two pass heavy teams that play quickly. The over has cashed in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two in Pittsburgh. A high scoring shootout should be in the works tonight. 

50*

Cleveland Browns -3

50* One & Only NFL UNDERDOG OF THE YEAR

Pittsburgh Steelers +4

Right off the bat, the Steelers are the better team. They also have the huge advantage playing this game off the bye week. The Steelers are healthy and most importantly, Big Ben will be ready. This team has one of, if not, the best offenses in the entire league. At any time, they can explode for a huge play with exceptional speed at the key positions. 

The Seahawks are not the same Seahawks we are used to. Their wins have come against weak competition. They beat the Lions, 49ers (twice), Bears (no Cutler), Cowboys (no Romo). I expect them to have some serious problems facing these Steelers. A team that is similar to the Steelers is the Arizona Cardinals. The Cardinals have speed, a great passing offense, and a solid defense. Look what Arizona did to Seattle and let's not forget, Pittsburgh beat these Cardinals with LANDRY JONES! No Marshawn today which is going to hurt this already anemic offense for Seattle. 

Added trends: Seattle is 0-6-1 ATS following a straight up win and they are 0-5-1 ATS facing a team with a winning record. They are also 2-5 ATS their last 7 home games and the Steelers are 5-1 ATS their last 6 road games.

40*

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Arizona Cardinals OVER 48

50* NFL SNF TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks UNDER 45

Let's start with this. The under has cashed 6 of the last 7 meetings between these two in Seattle. These teams play low scoring defensive battles between each other. 7 of the last 10 times they have played, they have scored less than 45. 

We all know Seattle has a fantastic defense. They are in the top 3 in almost all defensive categories. The problem with the Seahawks is that they struggle on offense. They are playing a Cardinals D that ranks 3rd in total defense and 7th in scoring defense. This sets up perfectly for a low scoring, defensive struggle.

Bottomline here is that we have two terrific defenses and two divisional opponents that know each other well. The way the 12th man roars in Seattle and given this is a primetime game, it should be very hard for Arizona to get into an offensive rhythm tonight. 

50* NFL UPSET OF THE YEAR

Miami Dolphins +135

No doubt Miami wants to dish out a little pay back in this one as the Bills blew them out back in Week 2. Yes, we were on Buffalo in that game, but this is a great spot for the Fins to get some revenge. The Dolphins were embarrassed by New England in their last game, Thursday Night, so we basically have two things going for us. The public's last impression of the Dolphins is that they are horrible since they got to see them on National TV and two; Miami is going to want to get the bad taste out of their mouths with the week and a half to prepare. It's usually a great bet to back teams after the bye/Thursday games off a loss. The Dolphins have covered 19 of their last 23 games on the road as a dog of less than 6 points.

Buffalo is just way too inconsistent. They make way too many mistakes and commit a TON of penalties. There are coaches that relish the bye week and their team performs very well the next game and there are coaches that just plain suck the game after the bye and probably go on vacation and forget to prepare. Rex Ryan is the latter. He has covered just once in his last 6 games coming off the bye.

Bottomline is that I believe the wrong team is favored here and the Dolphins are a totally new ball club under the new regime. Look for the Dolphins to pick up the solid road win. 

40* NFL TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Oakland Raiders vs. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 48.5

Also have a small lean to the Steelers.

Almost all the trends there are, especially for the Raiders, has this game flying over. Both teams love airing the ball out and they have had great success doing it. The Steeler secondary is a bit suspect and Carr should be able to put up a fair share of points. We all know how great the Steeler's offense is with Big Ben under center. He has one of the best WR corps in football. I expect them to throw the ball even more this game now with the absence of Bell in the backfield. This should be a rocking chair type game.

50* SNF GAME OF THE MONTH

Green Bay Packers -134

I can't believe that I'm saying this but Peyton Manning is one of the worst Quarterbacks in the league. Manning can no longer air it out and move the ball down the field like he used to. He also has the most interceptions in the league right now. The Broncos are 6-0 but they have escaped in basically every game against mediocre QBs. Their defense is the only reason they stay in ball games but now they face the best QB in the game in Aaron Rodgers.

Most don't realize this but the Packers have a great defense also. They should be able stop this running game of Denver since they have a susceptible offensive line. We do know that Denver's defense is outstanding but when it comes down to a battle of the men under center. Manning simply can't keep up with Rodgers and eventually Rodgers will do enough to pull away with the victory in the 2nd half.

Will be a 40* or 50*

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Carolina Panthers UNDER 46

40* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

St. Louis Rams -5.5

50* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Houston Texas +5

This line is an overreaction to Miami's domination of Tennessee last week. A great spot to back teams is when a coach gets fired and their interim coach takes over for the first time. Emotions are high and teams step up their game big time. It happens all the time in every sport. But now it's time to snap back to reality. This is a flat spot for the Dolphins. They should not be laying more than 4 points at home, where they have been awful against the spread. The Dolphins have lost 5 straight ATS on their field. Miami is one of the worst teams defending the run and this should allow Arian Foster and the Texans to really open up their offensive playbook. With the current spread at 5, Miami basically has to win by a touchdown. That's a lot to ask out of a team that has a lot of pressure on them with their coach making his first home start to perform well in front of an eager crowd.

Side note: Let's not forget that Miami has the Super Bowl Champs, New England Patriots, on deck Thursday Night.

50* AFC GAME OF THE YEAR

New England Patriots -7

Some books still have 7.5 and I recommend buying the hook to the key number of 7. 

I'll start with this. What game do you think New England had circled when the schedule game out? Yeah, this one. You know Brady and company want to EMBARRASS the team (Colts) that made their offseason a living hell. What makes it even better for New England? They get to do it on primetime in Indianapolis. The Patriots will not let their foot off the gas and their going to make an example out of Indy. 

Our 70* play to begin the season was Patriots OVER 10 wins. The reasoning behind it was because of the entire deflate gate scandal. They'll be playing with an enormous chip on their shoulders. Do you remember the last time they were called cheaters? It was during Spygate and they went on to go undefeated that regular season. 

The Colts have not looked all that special to start this season. They have zero defense and absolutely no offensive line. Belichick knows how to attack your weaknesses and take away what you do best. Just look what they have done in previous meetings. They always destroy the Colts. We had our One & Only NFL GAME OF THE YEAR last season in the AFC Championship on the Patriots and I expect a very similar result on Sunday Night Football.

40* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Cleveland Browns +5

40* NFL GAME OF THE WEEK

Cincinnati Bengals -3

It's no secret. The Seattle Seahawks are not the same team on the road, without the 12th man. Seattle's defense has given up a ton of points on the road this season and their offense has been terrible. They managed only one touchdown against Detroit at home and just one offensive TD on the road against the joke Bears. Good luck trying to get points against a very solid defensive front of the Cincinnati Bengals.

The Bengals have been amazing at home this season and years prior. They continue to cover the number at home as the line-makers repeatedly undervalue this club. Cincinnati is 17-5-1 their last 23 home games and they have won against the spread in every game this season. Even though I'm not the biggest Andy Dalton fan, he has played like a man possessed to start the season and is much better than Wilson at the moment. Look for Cincinnati to stay undefeated on the season after this one.

50* NFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR

St. Louis Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals OVER 42

40*

Kansas City Chiefs +4.5

40* MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL BEST BET

Kansas City Chiefs +7

I know this isn't a "true" bye week but it's really the next best thing. KC played Thursday night and now don't have to play until Monday night. Guess who is the best coach in the league off a bye...Yup, Andy Reid. He simply doesn't lose. Even better is that Reid has cashed 12 of his last 17 games when favored by a touchdown or more. Two of my closest sources are die hard Packers fans and they are expecting a Chiefs victory. Packers are riding high and could suffer a bit of a let down after their huge revenge win over the Seahawks last Sunday. Everyone is going to be all over the Packers in this one tonight. Going with the theme of the weekend as we made a killing betting dogs with another huge dog here tonight. Going to be honest here...only thing keeping this from being a 50* play is Aaron Rodgers. He's simply that good. But we can't ignore this spot and we'll gladly bet 4% on one hell of a situation.

50* NFL UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH

Buffalo Bills +130

You can go ahead and take the +3 if you'd like, for the safety net.

In my opinion, the Miami Dolphins are not a good team. I have watched both games that Miami has played so far this season and I have not been impressed one bit. This team could easily be 0-2. They barely beat the Redskins, as they were saved by a punt return and they lost to one of the worst teams in NFL history, the Jacksonville Jaguars. Ryan Tannehill continues to miss WIDE OPEN receivers and now there are rumors that Suh is doing whatever he wants on the field. Joe Philbin is going to be on his way out sooner rather than later and I wouldn't be surprised to hear the fans boo if the Dolphins start trailing in this game.

I have been very impressed with the Bills. This defense is ferocious and they showed me a lot by not just mailing it in against the Pats last week, after trailing by a bunch. The wrong team is favored in this game. Proof is that the Miami Dolphins have covered just 14 of their last 54 games when listed as the favorite. Let's take the points out of the equation and go for the big time pay day with the much better team on Sunday.

40* NFL VEGAS INSIDER

Oakland Raiders +4.5

Getting this one out now because I expect this line to take a nose dive

40* MNF BEST BET

New York Jets vs. Indianapolis Colts OVER 46.5

I know this sounds obvious, but we all know how Andrew Luck plays after a loss. He has won every game except one in his career. He also puts up stellar numbers when playing at home. So why don't we take the Colts then? I'll tell you why...the Colts defense is bad. They continue to get killed on the ground as their rush defense is pathetic. I expect the Jets to have a lot of success running the ball tonight and in turn, should open up the play-action passing game for Brandon Marshall. The Colts LOVE to throw the ball around the field and this game should turn into a track meet in the dome. I feel that as long as the Jets can put up 20, this will fly over because Indy should be able to put 4 in the end zone and get us 28 points right there.

50* NFL MAX BET

Green Bay Packers -3.5 (I recommend buying the hook)

When the schedule game out and the Packers saw they got the Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau, for their home opener, on primetime...you know this team was as hyped as can be. Talk about the perfect scenario to dish a little payback. A lot of people are going to look at this game and say "No way the Seattle Seahawks lose 2 in a row." I beg the differ. This is not the same Seahawks team we're used to. They lost their defensive coordinator, a couple corners, and one of, if not, the most important players on that defense, Kam Chancellor, is holding out and likely will not play this game either. Look what the Rams offense did to this team...Just wait and see what a pissed off Aaron Rodgers does.

The story of the Seahawks the last few seasons is that they are not as good on the road, and they proved that in Week 1. Do you know one of the worst places to play for a bad road team? You guessed it, the frozen tundra of Lambeau field and at night, no less. This place is going to go insane for this one and I have a feeling the Green Bay Packers are going to send a huge message to the NFC right now saying "We're the best and good luck trying to get passed us." Look for a convincing win for the Green Back Packers on Sunday night.

40* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH

Pittsburgh Steelers -6

This game is situational handicapping 101. We have the Pittsburgh Steelers coming off a loss in prime time, while the San Francisco 49ers come off a win in prime time. Public perception is going to be out of whack in this one. Another big key for this game is that the Steelers played Thursday night so they have a week and a half to prepare for their home opener and as an added bonus they didn't have to travel far at all, coming from New England. The 49ers, however, will be in for a bit of a let down as they are playing on a short week, having played Monday Night Football for their home opener. A good spot to bet in the NFL is when west coast teams travel to the east coast for 1:00 EST (10:00 PST) games. That's exactly what we have in this one. Let's not forget, Pittsburgh moved the ball really well in that game against the Pats and if it wasn't for two missed FG's, that game could have been a whole lot different. But good news for us is that they lost that game and it has given us great line value on the winningest NFL franchise in history. 

50* NFL MAX BET

Green Bay Packers -5

Posting this Packers selection now as I believe this line will continue to climb and wouldn't be surprised if it reached 6.5/7. Get this one now before it goes to 6.

Games that I am also taking a long look at and will be posted closer to the season if they become official plays:

Miami Dolphins -2.5

Arizona Cardinals -2.5

New York Jets -3

Carolina Panthers/Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 43

Also like the Arizona Cardinals regular season win total OVER 8/8.5 wins for 5%

Taking a hard look at the New York Giants OVER 8 and New Orleans Saints UNDER 9

New England Patriots OVER 10 wins and/or to win the AFC East is a 7% wager. NOTICE: This was before the Tom Brady ruling...if you are just getting to it now, I would play for 4%

50*

Carolina Panthers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars UNDER 42.5

Love this under. These are two teams that have solid defenses and pretty bad offenses, especially Jacksonville. Losing Benjamin is a big blow to the Panthers and it takes away their ability to stretch the field and have a down field threat. We all know that Jacksonville really struggles on the offensive end and both teams should continue to pound the rock over and over again, continuing running the clock to shorten the game. 

Week 1 in the NFL, like Week 1 in college football, typically are lower scoring games. Even better are games when the oddsmakers make the visiting team the favorite. Both Carolina and Jacksonville typically play to the style of team they play. For instance, when they play teams that play stout defense and run the ball a lot (UNDER teams,) they play to the under. 

I expect this game to have a ton of punts and field goals and reaching the end zone is going to be a tough task. As long as we don't have a bunch of turnovers in their territory to shorten the field, points will be tough to come across in this one.

40*

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Houston Texans UNDER 42

This Houston Texan defense should be incredible this year. Check out this defensive line. Wilfork, Clowney, and Watt. Good luck doing anything on offense, especially a team like KC who have Alex Smith. He's the quintessential "game manager" who doesn't take chances and really only throws short passes and check downs. Remember, he didn't throw a TD to a WR last year. We already know the Chiefs love to run the ball and so do the Texans. The Texans have to with guys like Hoyer and Mallett playing behind center. The Chiefs also have a pretty good defense also. With Foster being out, this only helps our cause here.  

Bottom line is that we have 2 running/time management teams with mediocre QBs with stellar defenses.

50* VEGAS INSIDER

Buffalo Bills +3

Bottomline here is that one of the favorites to win the AFC is only laying 3 to the Buffalo Bills...huge trap. The books are practically begging for Colts money and everyone is lining up to bet them. Currently 3 out of every 4 tickets written are on Indianapolis yet this line is staying put at -2.5 at some spots. Heavy sharp money is coming in on the dog here and we agree. The Bills have one of the best defenses in the league and they now have playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. This is a big game for Rex Ryan in front of this frenzied home crowd and I fully expect him to have his guys ready as they take down the Colts to open the season.