30*

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Los Angeles Clippers UNDER 208

20*

Denver Nuggets ML -106

One of the worst scheduling spots for a team is the back-to-back in Utah to Denver or Denver to Utah. It's pretty rare but when it happens we always fade the team. That's what the Wizards are in tonight. The high altitude is a serious problem especially when you're tired. Washington is 0-4 ATS playing the 2nd of a back to back and have only covered the spread twice in their last 8 road games. 

20*

San Antonio Spurs -8.5

40* CBB/NBA BLOWOUT PARLAY

Golden State Warriors -12.5

It's not often you get the Golden State Warriors with same season revenge but thats what we have here tonight. I know they are 1-1 ATS (2-0 SU) in this spot, as they destroyed the Mavericks but failed to cover against the Bucks. I think this is an amazing spot to grab the World Champs because they are rested, there's not a lookahead (Phoenix on deck), and are in the middle of a long home-stand. 

This just isn't any revenge angle though for Golden State. Portland absolutely EMBARRASSED them  coming back from the All-Star Break. GS lost by 32! Yes, losses stay with you and some more than others, but this is their worst loss EVER! I think they lay the hammer down tonight. Portland is a much better team at home than on the road and they have to play at the toughest play to win on the road of ALL-TIME, where they are just 7-19 ATS their last 26 meetings. As long as Golden State doesn't take their foot off the gas in the 4th quarter, they blowout this young Trailblazers team tonight.

20*

Utah Jazz +13

30*

Orlando Magic -3

I may upgrade this one later to a Top Play but want to get this one out now as the line is still a one possession game. Will write more on this one later but how can the Lakers not suffer a letdown after the biggest upset in regular season NBA history.

50* NBA SITUATIONAL GAME OF THE MONTH

Washington Wizards +5.5

My long term clients know this already but we love fading teams going back home from long road trips. Portland returns home tonight from a 6 game, East-Coast road trip with only one night off to play this game. To make matters worse for the Trailblazers, they have the Golden State Warriors on deck so possible lookahead situation here. This team has now lost 3 straight and their defense has really suffered of late. Portland has given up 100+ points in 10 of their last 12 games and a few of the game saw ridiculous amounts of points from the opposing teams. Tough to lay a touchdown to a team that doesn't play any defense.

The Wizards are in a solid bounce back spot here as they come off back to back loss but have had 2 days off to prepare for their upcoming road trip. Washington is 12-2 ATS their last 14 games with laying on 2 days rest. With the Wizards having revenge from and earlier loss on MLK day to the Blazers, look for them to keep it closer than most people expect tonight.

20*

Los Angeles Clippers -5

Tough spot here for Mavericks and a nice spot to play on the Clips. It's always tough to play a back to back when the first game was in the high altitude of Denver, especially when that game goes to OT. The Mavericks have also been terrible covering the number when facing the better teams of the league, going 1-5 their last 6. 

The Clippers are in a great spot to bounce back tonight as they come off a double digit loss at home their last game. The Clippers had the night off yesterday and they are 4-1 ATS their last 5 playing on a days rest and they are 7-0 ATS coming off a loss. They also have revenge from an earlier loss to Dallas this year.

20*

Sacramento Kings ML -105

30*

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Charlotte Hornets OVER 214.5

20*

San Antonio Spurs -7

50* NBA NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH

Toronto Raptors -7

This selection is both a play on the Raptors and a fade of the Rockets. This is a very difficult spot for the Rockets as they are playing a back to back and are in an awful scheduling situation. They are in the middle of a road trip and have played just 2 home games since February 6th. Thats 2 home games in a month. This team has got to be drained and to make matters worse, they have to go through customs after playing the late primetime game Saturday. A lot of these guys could be tuned out for this one. The Rockets are 1-6 ATS on the second game of a back to back.

The Raptors are on fire and it's always good to back to the streaks. They have won 12 straight at Air-Canada Centre and they are in the middle of a long home stand so they are benefitting greatly from their schedule. The Raptors have won the money in 4 of their last 5 meetings against the Rockets and are 11-1 ATS their last 12 meetings at home. 

20*

Minnesota Timberwolves -5.5

40* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK

Cleveland Cavaliers -8

Huge revenge angle here for the Cavaliers as they just lost to the Wizards on Sunday. LeBron didn't  play in that game so there isn't that much value in that win for the Wiz, but Washington has a 2-1 series lead and took the first game in Cleveland. The Cavaliers aren't about to get swept on their home floor by this team. Cleveland is rested, having the last 3 days off, and they are 7-3 ATS in that spot. I do have a small lean to the over here as well and will be making a small bet on the first half over 107.

20*

Orlando Magic -13

Most people, including me, thought the 76ers were the worst team in the NBA. I think the Suns have now taken that spot. This team is just flat out pathetic. Every stat and trend on this team is embarrassing. Phoenix is 5-22 ATS on the road, 5-21 ATS facing a team with a losing record, 0-7 ATS facing a team with a winning home record, and 1-5 ATS on the 2nd of a back to back. The Suns have quit on the season. 

20*

Golden State Warriors -7.5

also have a small lean to the under here.

The public is going to be all over the Thunder here catching that many points, thinking "Hey they should've won the last game and only lost by 3 and now we get 7.5?" OKC has been loved by the public all season long but they continue to struggle mightily ATS. They have also lost 5 straight ATS facing a team with a winning record. Just look at what they did last night against the Clippers. I think it's going to be hard for them to bounce back. Steph also got to rest last game so he should be his usual amazing self. GSW is 10-4 ATS their last 14 home games facing a team with winning percentage above .600.

30*

Indiana Pacers ML -133

consensus sharp play of the day

The Pacers are 9-0 ATS with revenge within the division and have won 5 straight when coming off 3 straight losses.

30*

Atlanta Hawks +10

50* One & Only NBA TOTAL OF THE YEAR

Golden State Warriors vs. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 233.5

Personally will be playing the FIRST HALF OVER 120 for 3% and the full game for 2%.

We had a top play on the over when these two teams met back on the Saturday before the Super Bowl. That game FLEW over in the first half but a dismal 3rd quarter caused the game to go under by 6 points. Curry also had his worst shooting game of the season that night and still barely went under. I don't see Curry doing that again. The reason I think this game is much different is the fact that both teams will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. If any of you guys have played basketball before you know that it takes MUCH more effort to play defense than offense. 

Both teams play at lightning speed, love transition basketball, and shoot a lot of threes. I recommend playing most of this wager on the first half over. In almost every Golden State game this year, they score a TON of points in the first half, especially the first quarter. What causes their games to go under is when they jump out to huge leads and take their foot off the gas in the 2nd half. I don't expect this game to be a blowout since its played in OKC. But just in case, I have FULL confidence that this game will go over in the first half. I personally think it's the much better play. However, given the fact that both teams should have tired legs, this game should be a total shootout just going back and forth all night long. The over has cashed in 5 of the last 6 meetings in OKC between these two and the Warriors have gone over the total in 20 of their last 29 road games.

20*

Atlanta Hawks -7

Sometimes when looking at "revenge angles" it's either: this team will avenge a prior loss or this team just has your number. Well we thought the Jazz would get their revenge last night and they certainly didn't. Clearly the Spurs just have their number. The reason I am bringing this up is because I think the Hawks have the Bulls number. Watching the past 2 meetings (we had top plays on both of them) Atlanta did whatever they wanted against Chicago. Atlanta is also in a nice spot to bounce back against the spread has they have covered 10 of their last 12 games following a double digit loss at home. 

20*

New York Knicks -130

This play is basically a fade of the Magic due to their tough scheduling spot and their situation. The  Magic's starters played big minutes last night against the Warriors and gave an all out effort. They should be in for a letdown especially since they have to travel from Orlando to New York. This will be their 3rd game in 4 night and 4th game in 6. Orlando hasn't had great success in New York as they are 2-5 ATS and 4-10-1 ATS overall.

20*

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors UNDER 207

20*

Indiana Pacers -3.5

20*

Philadelphia 76ers +8.5

30* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Utah Jazz +3

This looks like a huge trap game. Taking the San Antonio Spurs practically to just win the game simply looks way too easy. Nearly 80% of the action is on the Spurs and yet the line has dropped 1/1.5 points from the opener. Big money is coming in on the Jazz and a few sources have confirmed the move to the Jazz.

When looking closer at this game you will see the Spurs have not been good covering the number on the second of a back to back. In fact, they have lost 4 straight ATS in that spot. San Antonio is just 2-5 ATS coming off a double digit victory, and they have won the money just once in their last 6 meetings in Utah.

The Jazz have been fantastic against the spread when facing the great teams of the league. Utah is 10-1 their last 11 home games facing a team with a wining road record and have taken the last 2 home games against the Spurs. A big key here is that the Jazz were embarrassed by the Spurs in their last meeting in San Antonio. The Spurs won that game by 25 points. No doubt the Jazz will look to avenge that blowout loss and I believe they get it done tonight.

30*

Brooklyn Nets vs. Phoenix Suns UNDER 207.5

A big key here for this game is how each team plays against the bad teams of the league. Wins are tough to come by for these two clubs, so when they have a chance at a W, they go all out and play solid defense and give a great effort. That is why the Nets are 4-1 to the under facing a team with a winning percentage less than .400, and are 12-5 to the under on the road facing a tam with a losing record. The Phoenix Suns have gone under the total in 8 of their last 11 home games facing a team with a winning record, 6-2 to the under after getting beat by more than 10 points, and 10-2 their last 12 games after giving up 100+ points. That's one of my favorite trends to look at when playing totals to see how a team performs after a bad defensive outing. Clearly the Suns step it up after a poor defensive performance. Yes, these two teams have some of the worse defenses in the league, but they both rank in the bottom 3 in offensive efficiency. Look for an ugly game tonight with a lot of missed shots.

40* NBA WESTERN CONFERENCE GAME OF THE WEEK

Utah Jazz -4.5

The public loves the Rockets tonight as expected but this team is in trouble. Serious problems with team chemistry and they're playing like they just don't care. They haven't been playing well against the spread either. The Rockets are just 2-6 ATS following a straight up win and they are 1-6 their last 7 playing on 3 days rest. 

Utah always plays well at home and part of it is their great HFA due to the great fan base and high altitude. They have now won 5 straight and 9 of their last 13 against the spread. With 70% of the bets on the Rockets and the line staying put or even jumping a point at some spots, going to follow the money here with the more motivated team.

20*

Washington Wizards -4.5

30*

Milwaukee Bucks -9

20*

Boston Celtics ML -102

20*

Golden State Warriors vs. Portland Trailblazers OVER 223.5

20*

Indiana Pacers +8

40* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Orlando Magic ML -114

40* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK

Utah Jazz vs. Washington Wizards UNDER 199

When teams return from the All-Star break playing their first game back, I like to look for games that have a great chance of going under the posted total. The reasoning behind this is that most players spend their time away from basketball. They usually have about a week off and they can become rusty. They are well rested however, so they should give a solid defensive effort because it definitely takes more effort to play defense than offense.

A big key here for this game is the scheduling debacle the Wizards have been placed in. This game was supposed to be played earlier this season but was canceled due to the snow. Now the Wizards have to play 3 games in the next 3 nights. Knowing that, I expect the Wizards to slow the game down to try to save their legs for this though stretch. 

Speaking of slowing the game down, the Utah Jazz are the slowest paced team in the Association. These two teams usually play lower scoring games when facing each other. The under has cashed in 5 of the last 6 meetings and 6 of the last 7 meetings in Washington. The Wizards have also become an "under" team when playing at home. 11 of their last 14 games have gone under the total. 

Bottomline here is that the Jazz are 11-3 to the under when facing a team with a losing record and the Wizards are 7-1 in that same spot.

Best of luck to us tonight and always remember to use proper money management

-Don Anthony: TheBetterBettors.com

20* NBA All-Star Game BEST BET

West All-Stars vs. East All-Stars UNDER 321

This might sound crazy taking the All-Star game under the total but I think there is value now with the gigantic line move. This total opened at BetOnline at 305.5 and the rest of the books opened at 311. That's a 10-16 point move. I was waiting to see if it was going to go above 320, and if it did, we would strike.

Breaking this down from a mathematics standpoint, each quarter is going to need 80 points a quarter to get to 320. I do see the first half being high scoring as they do put on a show, obviously. But the key here is the 4th quarter. This is when both teams actually try to win the game, especially in the final 6-8 minutes. They step up the defense a bit and I expect a 65-70 point quarter here. With that in mind, they would need nearly 85 points in all of the first 3 quarters of the game. That's basically 8 points a minute. You would have to score nearly on every possession. I think a solid LIVE bet opportunity would be to take the under after the end of the 3rd quarter.

I also have a small lean to the West here as they are the MUCH more talented team. They're bigger, faster, deeper, and have much better shooters. Final score prediction: 163-154.

30*

Oklahoma City Thunder -11.5

30* NBA SHOOTOUT

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Cleveland Cavaliers OVER 208

We will also be playing the Golden State/Phoenix game OVER 112.5 FIRST HALF

50* NBA SITUATIONAL GAME OF THE MONTH

Atlanta Hawks -3

Most of my long term clients know this but one of my favorite situations in sports, especially the NBA, is fading a team their first game back after a long road trip. Chicago returns home now after a 7 game road trip and to make matters worse, they were awful during their roadie. The Bulls are extremely beat up right now and they are dying to get into this All-Star break with some much need healing time. Chicago has been terrible against the number of late. The Bulls are 1-5 ATS their last 6 games, 0-4 ATS at home, and 1-8 ATS playing on a days rest.

Atlanta should come into this game with some motivation after being swept by the Orlando Magic. They jumped out early to a huge lead and blew it in OT. If they manage to take a decent lead in this one, I expect them to keep their foot on the gas and not let up. Another huge key for this game is bench play. The Hawks are much deeper than the Bulls and when both benches are in, this is when Atlanta should take care of business.

20*

Los Angeles Clippers ML -105

20*

Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors OVER 118.5

THIS IS A FIRST HALF OVER PLAY

Golden State typically really steps up their defense in the 2nd half and slows the pace. We saw what happen in the OKC game when they scored 130+ in the 1st half and the game still didn't make it over the total. I do have a small lean to the over here, but playing the first half OVER is the much safer bet.

30*

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Philadelphia 76ers OVER 205.5

40* NBA PRIMETIME BEST BET

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Golden State Warriors OVER 230

I think this is the highest total I have ever seen. That's very telling on what the right side is. Typically when a line is completely out of whack, it usually means you go that way. Just look at Golden State/Wizards game the other night. That line was 227 points (which was close to the biggest line ever) and it FLEW over by nearly 30 points. We had the under in the game (thinking the Wizards would play a little defense), and boy I was wrong and I will not make that mistake again. 

All the trends and stats for this game favor the over and so does the eye test. Both teams play fast, shoot a lot of threes, and have a great FG%. The over is 7-2 in their last 9 meetings. OKC has been lights out offensively of late, scoring over 120+ points a game. They are also 5-0 to the over their last 5 on the road. Golden State is 5-1 to the over facing a team with a winning record and 6-1 to the over after scoring 125+ their previous game. That means they do not come out flat after a great performance and they continue to have momentum shooting the rock.

I expect this game to be a rocking chair, just back and forth, a good ol' fashioned shootout. 

40* NBA UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK

Portland Trailblazers +1

This line smells like a trap. The Raptors are 33-16 and are pick em to a team with a losing record. The public is going to be all over the visitors here. Currently, the Raptors are seeing 68% of the action. However, Portland has been playing well lately, winners of 5 straight. They also have a terrific HFA. Toronto knows this all too well as the Raptors are 2-10 ATS their last 12 meetings which includes going 1-6 ATS at the Moda Center. The Raptors have also lost the money in 4 straight games and is just 1-4 against the Western Conference.

30* NBA TOTAL PARLAY

Orlando Magic vs. Oklahoma City Thunder OVER 211.5

One of my top NBA totals guys has this as one of this favorite totals of the season. I totally agree with the play as the Thunder have been unstoppable on the offensive end of late. They are averaging over 120 points during their win streak. OKC has scored over 100 points in 9 of their last 10 games and the only game that didn't, they scored 99. I expect them to continue to score a ton of points again tonight as they are playing a Magic team that has given up 100+ points in 6 straight games. The last meeting between these 2 clubs saw a TON of points. Granted that game did go to OT, but the final score was 139-136. I expect this game to be played at a frantic pace and as long as Orlando can put up their fair share of points, as they are 5-0 to the over following a loss, this game should go over with ease.

30* NBA TOTAL PARLAY

Golden State Warriors vs. Washington Wizards UNDER 225.5

This is the highest total so far this year for an NBA game. I know its tough to play a Warriors game under but I have been to plenty of Wizards games this year and they almost always go under the total when playing at the Verizon Center. The under has cashed in 10 of their last 13 games at the Phone Booth.

I do have a lean to the Warriors for the game, so I do expect a bit of a blow out. The Warriors have shown this year when they take huge leads into the 2nd half, they really focus on their defense and slow the pace down. It has been countless times this year the Warriors have played their entire bench in the 4th quarter because of the huge blow out games they're always in. Imagine what Curry's numbers would be like if he played in the 4th quarter. It seems half of the games they have played this year he's only played 3rd quarters. Speaking of Curry, he has been in a shooting slump over his last few games.

Don't be surprised to see a lot of points in the 1st half as this is typical for Warriors and Wizards games. But the Wizards almost always have a bad quarter shooting the ball in every game where they post under 20 points and playing one of the best 2nd half defensive teams in the Warriors, I expect that trend to continue. Also, I expect the Wizards to try to step up their defensive intensity in this game as many of the players have been quoted mentioning their poor defense in the past few outings. If this game gets out of hand, look for a very low scoring 2nd half/4th quarter and if the game flies over for the 1st half, I recommend playing a 2nd half under as well. Let's face it, 226 points is a LOT of points.

30* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Phoenix Suns +9.5

Going to give the Suns one last chance here. We had them on Sunday and they were up by 5 in the 4th quarter as 11 point dogs and ending losing by 13 points. They scored only 5 points in the final 8 minutes and 9 for the entire quarter. We have to take the Suns tonight as the situation is absolutely perfect for them but if they blow it again, you best believe we won't be taking them any time soon.

This is the ultimate fade of Toronto. Love fading teams that go on long win streaks and finally lose. Conventional wisdom would have you believe "They'll bounce back" but usually the opposite happens and they suffer a letdown. Also, Toronto had to play IN Denver last night and play in Phoenix on a back to back. That is tough for anyone. Toronto has lost 5 straight ATS vs. Phoenix 

Phoenix just fired their coach and it's their first game with their interim coach. It's usually a solid bet to play on a team that just fired their coach as the players come up pumped up. Toronto is one of the most popular bets on the board tonight yet the line is dropping. Look for the Suns to keep it respectable tonight.

30*

Utah Jazz -4

30* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Phoenix Suns +10.5

Usually our Vegas Insider selections are top plays but we'll make this a 3% selection since Phoenix isn't a very good basketball team and it's tough making big selections on bad teams. However, this is too many points and we can't ignore the money and info on this play.

The Dallas Mavericks are the biggest public favorite on the NBA card tonight. Some spots have over 90% of the action on the Mavs. This line opened at -12 and has dropped -10 now. That is some serious money coming in on the dog tonight. A couple of my sources have confirmed serious cash on the Suns. 

The Phoenix Suns are 27-12 ATS in their last 39 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points and the Dallas Mavericks are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points. Also, Phoenix has covered the number in 4 of their last 5 meetings in Dallas and 5 of their last 7 overall. Look for the Suns to keep it within single digits tonight.

30*

Indiana Pacers -8

30*

Utah Jazz -8

50* NBA BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH

Boston Celtics -8

This game reminds me a bit of the Bulls/Lakers game last night. Orlando has now lost 7 straight games and 11 out of 12. They can't seem to get anything going and are in a free fall at the moment. Boston has been playing lights out in their last few games, as they have scored 110+ in their 4 straight victories, winning by an average of just above 13 points.

The trends are horrific for the Magic and they haven't been able to cover the number in a long time. They are in a combined 4-57 ATS spot tonight which includes: 1-6 ATS on the road, 1-6 ATS facing a team with a winning record, 1-6 ATS after allowing 100+ points, 0-5 ATS after scoring 100+ points, and 0-5 ATS facing a team with a winning home record. They are also just 9-24 against the number their last 33 meetings in Boston.

Bottomline here is that the Celtics are hot and the Magic are not. Boston has been tearing it up on the defensive AND offensive ends of the floor. They simply outclass the Magic in this one in so many ways. Also, Boston has revenge from a 19 point loss earlier in the season to the boys from Orlando. I think they get it done in a big way tonight.

40* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK

Chicago Bulls -8.5

Surprised this line wasn't -10 or higher. I like our chances with the Bulls tonight as they are in a great spot here. They come off a loss to the Heat and look to bounce back after 2 days off. What makes it even better is that their next game isn't until Sunday and they don't have to travel because they are playing the Clippers. The Bulls should come out fully focused for this game, especially playing with revenge from an earlier loss to the Lakers. 

Los Angeles has been just a disgrace. They have lost 7 in a row and with the exception of the Dallas game a couple nights ago, they all have been by double digits. The Lakers are just 7-20 ATS after covering the number their previous game. Look for the Bulls to take this one and for the Lakers to lose by double digits yet again.

20*

Utah Jazz -6.5

20*

Atlanta Hawks -5

20*

Detroit Pistons -12

50* NBA EASTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Washington Wizards vs. Toronto Raptors UNDER 205

The Toronto Raptors have given the Washington Wizards fits, especially on the offensive end. Toronto has held Washington to less than 38% shooting in their 3 victories this season. I just recently went to the last Raptors/Wizards game and the Wizards have some serious problems in the paint against these guys. The Raptors know that they win against these Wizards by slowing them down as much as possible and getting into a half court style of game.

When looking back to prior meetings between these two, they really have some lower scoring games. If you take out the 4 post-season games last year and look at the regular season meetings going back to 2011, these teams live in the 180s in total points scored. In the 18 meetings, there has been 3 overtime games. In the other 15 games, ALL of them have seen total scores less than the current number of 205. The average combined score in those games is 183.9 points.

The under is 13-6 the last 19 meetings and 8-2 the last 10 meetings in Toronto. Also, the Wizards are 6-2 on the under when allowing 100 points their previous game, which typically means they step up their defense effort after a poor one. The under is 7-1 for the Raptors when playing a team with a losing record.

20*

Philadelphia 76ers ML -145

There is a reason why these 76ers are favored in this one. Even though Philly only has 6 wins on the season, they are the better team. Ish Smith has been a huge addition to this team and without Brandon Knight for the Suns, they are really bad. 

The current spot for the Suns is a nightmare. They come off a huge buzzer beating win against the Hawks and have the Cavaliers tomorrow on a back to back. Phoenix has been terrible covering the number in this situation. They are a combined 1-36 ATS tonight which includes going 0-8 ATS following a straight up win, 1-10 ATS following a spread win, and 0-5 ATS their last 5 games on the road.

Philadelphia steps up big time when they play a team they have a chance at beating, because let's face it, wins are hard to come by for this team. Taking the points out of the equation so we don't have to worry about a 2 possession/backdoor cover. 

30*

Golden State Warriors -4.5

I believe the key in this game is home field advantage. Golden State is probably the best team I have seen in 20 years and they are unstoppable at home. I really can't name a weakness of this team. When they start hitting their three's, it's impossible to beat them and they will blow ANYONE out by 20 points or more. Just look what they did to Cleveland. Granted, the Cavaliers aren't even close to the Spurs but you could say they're the 3rd or 4th best team in the league. The Warriors really get up when playing the top tier teams of the league. San Antonio is on fire right now but they have played some bad teams lately. We also now from recent years, Popovich doesn't put a lot of stock into regular season games. Duncan is out in this game and Popovich knows it's not the end of the world if you lose this game. The end of the season push and the playoffs are what matters. 

20*

Boston Celtics vs. Washington Wizards UNDER 213

30*

Cleveland Cavaliers -10.5

This line is -10.5 for a reason. I expect a huge outing for the Cavaliers tonight. It's usually a great bet to back a team that just fired their coach and this should jump start the Cavaliers in front of their home fans. From a trend stand point, the Chicago Bulls have been terrible. The have covered the number just once in their last 8 games and once in their last 5 road games. The Bulls are also a miserable 0-4 ATS when playing on a back to back and are 0-6 ATS when scoring 100+ points their previous game. This situation is as bad as it gets for the Chicago Bulls. As for the Cavaliers, they are 8-1 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Cleveland also has revenge from the opening season loss to the Bulls. With this being the ABC primetime game, I see the Cavaliers sending a big message to the NBA world as their last primetime game they got blasted by the Warriors. Also this is a great public fade with more than 60% of the bets on the underdog.

40*

New York Knicks ML +100

30*

Toronto Raptors -11

This play is largely in part of the current state of the Miami Heat. Practically their entire team is injured and they have had to do a ton of traveling lately in their current scheduling spot. Toronto has been able to sit back at home and roll off 6 straight wins. Wade and Deng are listed as questionable in this game but I highly doubt we see them tonight. Toronto loves booing Chris Bosh when he returns to Air Canada Centre and the Raptors should roll.

40* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Milwaukee Bucks +3

We going to continue to ride this Buck's train while it's hot. Milwaukee has covered 5 straight games and are 4-1 SU during that span. As explained in the last Milwaukee write up, I believe Middleton is one of the most under-rated players in the game. Houston is one of the most inconsistent teams in the NBA. They are just 1-4 ATS their last 5 games and are 0-4 ATS when scoring 100+ points in their previous game. This means that when the play solid offense their last game, they get over-valued and end up with a bad performance. Houston also won't have Dwight Howard for this game and key defender, Beverley, could be out as well. With 60% of the tickets on Houston yet this line is falling, following the money here with the hotter team.

30*

Memphis Grizzlies ML -130

The Grizzles are playing much better basketball of late and they take care of business against the teams they should beat. They have only 2 losses on their last 19 games facing a team with a losing record. Denver, on the other hand, is just 4-17 facing a team with a winning record. I see this Memphis defense causing too many problems for the Nuggets. They are a very physical rebounding team and they lead the league in defensive turnovers. Memphis has too much of an advantage down low against these guys. Memphis is just too good of a team and they are playing great basketball for Denver to stand a chance in this one.

30*

Charlotte Hornets +10

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been looking great lately but I have seen this team time and time again play down to the level of their opponents. They got creamed on their home court by Sacramento and barely beat the Lakers just a couple weeks ago. I feel this is too many points to lay to Charlotte, who is the best team in the league in taking care of the ball (#1 in turnovers.) 

This line opened at 10.5 and has dropped to -9 at a lot of spots now with 2 out of every 3 tickets on the Thunder. That's some serious money on the dog here. The Thunder come into this game having to travel back from a late tip in Denver and played a run and gun type game in the altitude. They should suffer from some tired legs here. Charlotte does take a ton of three pointers and this is huge. A 3 point shooting team is key as a big dog because if they are hot, they can stay with anybody. Obviously if they're cold, we're in trouble, but that's usually the case with any game. The Hornets should be able to do enough to stay within single digits tonight as OKC is just 2-8 ATS facing a team with a losing record.

40*

Boston Celtics vs. Toronto Raptors OVER 201.5

One of my top NBA totals guys has this as one of his strongest Eastern Conference totals of the season, lined at 206.

All the trends for both teams have them going over the total in this game and recent form of these two point to high scores also. Boston has scored 100+ in 7 straight games and in 9 of their last 10. They have also given up 100+ in 4 of their last 5 games as well. Toronto has gone over the total in 4 of their last 5 home games and Boston has gone over in 4 straight road games. This game should feature a lot of 3 pointers and that's always a good sign when taking an over. Boston shoots the 7th most 3 pointers in the Association a game and Toronto is in the Top 10 in 3 point FG %. 

50* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Milwaukee Bucks +4.5

This is an awful spot for the Miami Heat tonight. They are returning home from a lengthy west coast road trip tonight and they have to fly back out following the game. This has always been one of my favorite spots to fade in the NBA and MLB. What makes it even better for us is that Miami has been terrible covering the number in this situation. They are just 7-22 ATS in this spot. They are also ravaged with injuries that does not help a tired team.

Milwaukee has been playing well of late covering 4 straight games. They have gotten a big boost from Middleton and he has a lot of potential guys. I just recently went to the Bucks Wizards game and let me tell you, this guy can ball. I believe he is one of the most under-rated players in the game. He has a great fall away jumper from the corner and elbow. I expect him to have a solid outing while he leads his team past the ailing Heat tonight.

50*

Golden State Warriors vs. Cleveland Cavaliers UNDER 206.5

20*

Houston Rockets +103

Very tough spot here for the Cavaliers as they come off a very physically intense game against the San Antonio Spurs last night. LeBron was even quoted saying "It's very tough out there" and checked himself out of the game. They now have to get up for the Houston Rockets for their 3rd game in 4 nights during the "Texas Triangle." (Playing Dallas, San Antonio, Houston.) Cleveland has been awful against the number in this situation. The Cavs have lost 5 straight ATS following a straight up loss and 5 straight ATS playing on back to back nights. They are also a dismal 1-11 their last 12 meetings in Houston. Wouldn't be shocked to see James Harden and company pull the upset tonight.

30*

Miami Heat -121

Bit of a square play here but got to fade the Nuggets in this spot tonight. Denver comes off beating the toughest opponent in the game, the Warriors, handing them just their third loss of the season. How well have the other 2 teams that beat them fare their next time out? They have gotten blasted. Both Dallas and Milwaukee were blown out by more than double digits the following game.  The Heat are 5-1-1 following a spread loss and the Nuggets 1-5-1 following a spread win. Taking the points out of the equation here and just asking for Miami to come away with the victory tonight.

40*

Charlotte Hornets vs. New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 200.5

50* NBA MAX BET

San Antonio Spurs -6.5

It's no surprise. The public is all over the Cavaliers tonight. "Getting +7 with the KING!" Not so fast. The Spurs are a well oiled machine. They really get up for these games against good competition. There's a reason the oddsmakers made them a 3 possession favorite over Cleveland. They're unstoppable at home. They are also money making machines. San Antonio is 44-19 ATS their last 66 games and 25-9 ATS at home. They have also covered 4 straight against teams with a winning record. Cleveland has been terrible against the number on the road lately. They have covered just once in their last 7 contests. The Cavaliers have covered just 3 times in the last 12 meetings against the Spurs. Look for the San Antonio Spurs to send a message to the NBA world on prime time TV tonight.

50* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH

Atlanta Hawks vs. Charlotte Hornets OVER 204.5

The trends are eye popping in this game, especially for the Hawks. This team has been lights out on offense. Ever since Bazemore has joined the starting five, Atlanta has gone over the total in 11 of their last 12 games which includes 5 straight. They're averaging over 110 points per game during this offensive explosion. 

The Charlotte Hornets can put up their fair share of points also and look to run as well. The key here is that their defense has been a disaster the last few games. They have given up an average of 107 points their last 7 games and 5 of those games reached 100+. The over is 12-3 the last 15 meetings between these two in Charlotte and given the recent form of these clubs, don't be surprised if it's 13-3 after tonight.

20*

Dallas Mavericks +6

20*

Detroit Pistons +7

20*

Miami Heat -5

Big game tonight for Goran Dragic as this is his first game back in his old stomping grounds Phoenix. Expect a big game from him here. The Suns have been a total mess this season and have been even worse after a win. They are 0-7 ATS following a straight up win and 0-5 ATS following a spread win. The Miami Heat have had tremendous success in the Phoenix has they have covered 7 straight meetings in Arizona. 

30*

New Orleans Pelicans -5.5

Tough spot for the Mavericks tonight. Not only is it a back to back and 4th game in 6 nights, they have to travel after playing a grueling double over time game against Sacramento. I'm sure by now you've seen the controversy involving this game with the extra time allowing Williams to drain the buzzer beater. They should suffer a bit of a letdown, especially in the 2nd half with the tired legs. New Orleans should be able to pull away in the 4th quarter as they have had 3 days off and get Tyreke Evans back. Rarely is New Orleans this much of a favorite and it's a telling sign of who should take the victory here tonight.

50* NBA SHOOTOUT OF THE MONTH

Denver Nuggets vs. Minnesota Timberwolves OVER 203.5

My top totals guy has this game going over by 9 points. Needless to say, that's a huge difference. All the trends for the Nuggets have this game flying over. The key here is that both teams refuse to play defense. Denver has given up 100+ points in 6 of their last 8 games with 4 of those games scoring over 110. As for Minnesota, they have allowed 100+ in 9 of their last 11 games, including 4 in a row. As long as these two teams don't go ice cold from the floor, the pace and amount of shots  in this game should be just right for the over here.

20*

Boston Celtics vs. Detroit Pistons OVER 201

Short and sweet, these two teams simply just put up a ton of points when playing each other. The over is 7-1 their last 8 meetings with 4 straight going over at TD Garden. These two clubs love the 3 ball and if their falling, they each eclipse 100 with ease. We have an over referee here and both teams average scoring and allowing 100 points a game.

30*

Toronto Raptors -6.5

Most of my sources I have spoke to love the Raptors tonight. Brooklyn continues to struggle covering the number here at the Barclay's Center, just 1 of their last 7. Not having Jack for the Nets is really hurting this team as Shane Larkin simply isn't the answer for Brooklyn. Kyle Lowry should have a gigantic night, and if he does, Raptors take this one by double digits.

40* NBA TOTAL OF THE WEEK

New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks UNDER 203

Looking back at the last 3 games this season between these two clubs, there has been a lot of points. In fact, these two teams have played each other twice in the last 10 days, with 2 days ago between the last meeting, and they both flew over. So why are we taking the under here? It's because this will be the 4th time this season they'll see each other this season so early on, and 3rd game in just 11 days. Advantage defense. When teams know each other well, it always gives an edge to the defense because of familiarity...they know your next move. 

The oddsmakers opened this line at 204.5, even though there has been 208, 213, and 215 points scored between the Hawks and the Knicks. This line has also dropped 2 points to 202.5 in some spots now with 70% of the tickets on the over. Following the money here and current situation with the under tonight.

40* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK

Boston Celtics -6.5

Recommend buying the hook here as I see this line has climbed to 7.5 in some spots. 7 is a very key number in the NBA as that is a 3 possession game and teams tend to stop fouling at the end of games at that point.

Usually it's a solid bet to take a team playing on quick revenge, as I like to call it in the NBA. That's when a team's next game is against the team that just beat them. That's what we have here. It's in an even better spot for Boston as they were double digit home favorites to the Nets and they lost outright. Another great spot in the NBA is fading a team that is coming off a a double digit underdog outright victory. 

A big key here is how these two teams perform with their home/away splits. Boston has covered 20 of their last 28 games away from TD Garden but the Nets have covered just once in their last 6 games at Barclay's Center. 

20*

Memphis Grizzlies vs. Utah Jazz UNDER 186

40*

Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs OVER 200.5

20*

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Detroit Pistons OVER 200

30*

Indiana Pacers vs. Chicago Bulls OVER 200.5

40* NBA VEGAS INSIDER

Denver Nuggets +5.5

Everyone is going to want to line up at the window and take the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight. Already 75% of the bets are on the Cavs, yet the line has dropped 2.5 points from the 8 point opener. If you look closer at this game, this is a terrible spot for Cleveland. Not only is this a back to back game and the 4th road game in 5 nights, which is probably the hardest situation in the NBA, they have to do it in Denver in the high altitude. What makes it even worse is that Cleveland has played 3 run and gun teams prior to this game. Add in the fact that the Cavs are a bad road team and this is a recipe for failure for Cleveland. They have lost 4 straight ATS on a back to back and they are also 0-8 ATS facing a team with a losing record. 

20*

Washington Wizards -113

20*

Dallas Mavericks -3.5

20*

Houston Rockets vs. New Orleans Pelicans UNDER 211

40* NBA TOP PLAY PARLAY

Los Angeles Clippers -11.5

This one is simple. The Lakers have dominated the Clippers basically their entire existence, until recently. The Clippers have always been overshadowed by the Lakers. But now since they clearly have more talent, the really lay the hammer down when they have the opportunity. Just look at recent meetings. The Clips have won 9 of the last 10 meetings and 7 of those meetings have all been blowouts. This game is nationally televised for all to see so you know the Clippers want to let everyone know who they big boys of LA are and that they're here to stay. As long as the Clips don't just go flat out ice cold, this is an absolute blowout.

30*

San Antonio Spurs vs. Houston Rockets OVER 200.5

40* NBA TOP PLAY PARLAY

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Golden State Warriors UNDER 210

This very well could be the finals preview again and these players know it. So this is a big game for them. There's an old saying and that's "Big games go UNDER." Teams really step up their defensive intensity in meaningful games and nerves tend for more missed shots. When looking back to last year's NBA Finals, not one game out of the 6 saw this total. The highest scoring game was 208 but that was Game 1 that went to overtime. I can see both teams showing a lot of pride in shutting the other team down tonight. Each team wants to be able to say "We shut down LeBron" or "We shut down Curry" it'll mean more than "We outscored them." Golden State plays outstanding defense in their building and surprisingly the under has cashed in 15 of the last 22 home games. This stat is very key for this game. Cleveland and Golden State are 4-1 their last 5 to the under when playing a team with a winning record.

50* NBA ROAD WARRIOR OF THE MONTH

Memphis Grizzlies -9.5

Most of my long term guys know that I love fading the 76ers and for good reason. This is probably the worst team I have ever witnessed. There are 2 types of 76ers teams. The bad and the awful. Usually the awful shows up and they get completely blown out. Even the bad 76ers can easily get beat by 10 here with a very good defensive team in the Memphis Grizzlies. Teams have had great success covering less than double digits against this Philly squad. The 76ers have covered just 1 time in their last 11 games. Look for Memphis to roll tonight. 

40*

San Antonio Spurs -7.5

30*

Phoenix Suns +12.5

Two situations that are key in sports, especially the NBA, are involved in this game tonight. One is when teams return from a lengthy road trip, they struggle their first game back home. The other is when a team goes a very long win streak. When they finally lose, you fade them the next game. Conventional wisdom has you believe that they'll bounce back but that's rarely ever the case. Only thing keeping this from being a TOP PLAY is that this IS the Golden State Warriors. They are a exceptional team. However, this is just simply way too many points and both situations call for Phoenix to keep this one respectable.

20*

Washington Wizards +13

Washington is getting no respect here. This line is this high because of the last performances of each team. The Wizards just got embarrassed by Memphis their last game so they should give a solid effort here. As for the Spurs, they dismantled Utah their last game so they should have a bit of a letdown. Let's not forget, the Wizards beat this San Antonio team earlier this season. They can compete with this team. I know the Wizards have been awful in San Antonio in prior years but we're getting two touchdowns. That's a a lot to lay in the NBA and we'll take our chances.

20*

Memphis Grizzlies +3.5

The Bulls continue to be over-valued. They have not had success ATS and they are a very public team. Chicago is 0-8 ATS their last 8 following a spread win and they are just 2-10 ATS following a S.U. win. The Grizzlies have done well against Chicago of late. They have covered 5 of the last 6 meetings. Chicago has had serious 4th quarter problems and there is a serious mis-match at PG. Conley, IMO, is much better than the over-rated Derrick Rose.

20* 

Minnesota Timberwolves +5

20*

Boston Celtics +2.5