This is a 10* GOM on the 49ers moneyline.

If you've made it this far in the season and you've purchased this pick off of me, congratulations, because you are now part of a historic NFL Playoff run which has so far seen me go 10-3 with ALL releases (making a single pick on every game played so far!) 

And that also means that if you're betting on this game, that the cast of characters on both sides of the field are well known, along with the strengths and weaknesses of each of these teams.

There are thousands of different story lines and if you have in fact been living under a bridge and don't know a single thing about this game, then just google it and you'll have literally 10 million "review" articles to choose from to get "up to date." 

I'm here to tell you why I think San Francisco will not only win this game, but also cover the small spread at the same time.

First off, is the money really any "greener" here in the NFL than it is over in College hoops right now? There's only one game and every bookmaker has his eyes on this contest. The bottom line is, there's not a tremendous amount of "value" left here in this contest.

But, with nearly 65% of the early public money on the Chiefs, we're going to "go the other way" and go full on contrarian with this release. Let's bypass the spread, and just take the 49ers to win this game on the moneyline option.

Yes, the Chiefs made it back to the Super Bowl, but Kansas City is not putting the fear of god into anyone this year (I had the Chiefs last week.) KC has struggled with offensive consistency from game to game and now it faces a 49ers team that really "found" itself in the second half of its Division championship victory two weeks ago.

I think CMC and this 49ers offense will be too much for Patrick Mahomes this time around. The Chiefs' defense has been the storyline for KC to this point, but I still think this San Francisco offense will prove to be the difference-maker in this one.

San Fran has the advantage in almost every metric by my measure and my official call for Super Bowl 58 will indeed be to grab the 49ERS on the MONEYLINE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOM on the UNDER Lions/49ers.

I had a play on the "over" in the Lions game and a play on the "under" in the 49ers game in the Divisional Round, part of my overall 4-0 Divisional Round showing.

Oddsmakers aren't giving the Lions much of a chance here. Either way, I feel that this one will be a tigher, and ultimately lower-scoring NFC Championship Game once it's all said and done.

These team's haven't played since 2021, and the 49ers scored the 41-33 road victory. Now on the West Coast in San Francisco though and I'm anticipating this contest being decided in the trenches, and by field position. 

The team that looks after the ball in this game is the one that's going to win this contest. With each side putting an added emphasis on establishing the run and limiting what their QB has to actually do here, this one definitely has all the makings of a tighter, and lower-scoring affair.

In my opinion, this number is high, so the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is an ATS SIDE WINNER on the Chiefs.

If you're watching and wagering on this game, then you know the story lines. You know the cast of characters on both sides of the field. You know the strengths and weaknesses of these teams.

And if not, there are literally millions of review articles out there that can get you up to speed. The bottom line here is guys that I believe that experience really does matter here at this point.

Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid will never go down without a fight. Mahomes earned his first road playoff win last weekend, and he has even bigger plans for the Conference round. 

This matchup is going to be decided by the men under center, and while LaMar Jackson deserves to win MVP for the regular season, if I had a gun to my head and asked which QB I think is more suited to win this game at this exact second, and I'd for sure say Mahomes.

Mahomes and Travis Kelce have now connected on more playoff TD's than any other combo in history. 

I had a play on Houston in its win over the Browns. I had a play on Baltimore last week in its victory over the Texans.

I thought that CJ Stroud's inexperience would lose out to Jackson's experience at that point.

And now I believe that Mahome's experience at this level will also prove to be the difference in the end here.

And while I do indeed feel an outright win is possible, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with KANSAS CITY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* DIVISIONAL RND. GOY on Kansas City.

They say that revenge is a dish best served cold. However the saying goes, we like the Chiefs to use their experience and to avenge the 20-17 home loss to the Bills back on December 10th.

Note that KC is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. 

Buffalo got the better of a sub-par Pittsburgh team, but the Chiefs are an entirely different animal at this time of year.

KC's defense just held the league's highest scoring offense to only 26 points, and we have a hard time seeing the Bills matching what they did last week.

Give me Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs with the points in this revenge scenario.

The play is indeed on KANSAS CITY.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BK on the OVER Bucs/Lions.

Both teams played to lower-scoring UNDERS to open up the playoffs, but everything points to a much more wide-open and utlimately higher-scoring game here in Detroit in the divisional around in my opinion. 

Tampa is only 5-4 on the road SU, but 8-1 ATS away from friendly confines. Detroit is 7-2 SU at home and 5-4 ATS.

But for this one, I'm steering clear of the side and instead expecting high-scoring battle for sure.

Tampa's offense was firing on all cylinders in its 32-9 destruction of the Eagles and I don't see its defense being nearly as effective on the road here.

With these two starting QB's getting massive wins in the divisional round, each essentially also got a proverbial monkey off their backs as well with the victory.

Look for these two confident pivots to be the main focal point in tomorrow's summaries of this contest.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* DIVISIONAL ROUND TOY on the UNDER Packers/49ers.

I had a play on Green Bay in its blowout win over the Cowboys. I also put out a late-breaking play on the OVER in that contest.

But now I'm expecting a completely opposite result here as far as the combined score is concerned here on the West Coast in the divisional round.

Note that Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in three of its last four off a SU/ATS road win as an underdog.

Additionally note that San Francisco has seen the total go UNDER the number in five of its last seven when playing with two or more weeks of rest.

I think this is a great situational play. This number is high, the play is indeed on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Ravens.

I had a play on Houston last week, but now the Texans and CJ Stroud are going to have to deal with another super tough defense, but this time on the road.

The Texans have already exceeded expectations to this point and I think they're going to classically stumble here, now satisfied. 

But for LaMar Jackson and the Ravens, this year has an almost "now or never" type of feel to it. Teams that have a bye in the first week have a tremendous advantage, and that's going to be the case here for Baltimore in my estimation.

The Houston defense looked poor in the win over the Browns. Overall it allowed Cleveland to go 7 of 15 on third down.

The Ravens only concede 16.5 PPG, and I think Houston will now struggle to even reach that amount here on the road.

Jackson has thrown three or more TD's in each of his last two games as home favorites and all signs point to another blowout.

Lay the points, the play is BALTIMORE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WC GOY on the Eagles.

The Eagles stumbled down the stretch of the regular season, but they still finished 11-6. 

Tampa Bay qualified for the playoffs in Week 18 after holding on for a 9-0 win at Carolina (lost 23-13 here to New Orleans the week before.) 

Yes, there should be some concern for Eagles fans for their Super Bowl hopes, but no, I don't think at all here that they have anything to worry about vs. the Bucs.

Baker Mayfield made the playoffs and a bonus and now I feel that a predictable letdown is imminent.

Experience does count at this point and we can expect Jalen Hurts and company to be the ones to step up and deliver the goods.

Lay the points, the play is PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the OVER Steelers/Bills.

When these teams played here on October 9th, 2022 the Bills won by a score of 38-3. While I do expect a more competitive battle here, I do think we'll see a similar final combined score in this one here on Sunday afternoon.

Pittsburgh won its final three games of the season behind great offensive play, combining for 81 points over that span. We can expect that offensive play to be carried over here.

Buffalo enters the playoffs as possibly the hottest team in the league after five straight wins to close things out. With Josh Allen keeping the foot on the gas like I suspect, everything points to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Rams.

While I do think the Rams have a legitimate shot at winning this one outright, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can.

Detroit finished 12-5, while LA was 10-7.

The Rams were 5-4 SU on the road, including 5-3-1 ATS. 

These teams offensive and defensive numbers are really similar and of course we have the "Matt Stafford" factor returning to Detroit, and Jared Goff facing his former team as well.

Stafford and Goff were traded and Stafford would go on to win the Super Bowl with the Rams. Last year Stafford was injured and while he started slowly this year, he finished strong down the stretch and I think he'll be a difference-maker in this one.

In a contest that I see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. The play is LA.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* play on the Packers.

Green Bay defied the odds and made the wildcard with 9-8 record, and it's on the road to take the 12-5 Cowboys, who are famous for their playoff futility.

Jordan Love improved dramatically over the second half of the season and I think the Packers actually have a legitimate shot at this one outright.

Dallas lost to Buffalo and Miami, but then bounced back to beat Detroit (20-19 as a 4.5-point fav), and then blew out Washington in Week 18, 38-10.

But this improved PACKERS team comes in well "under the radar" in my opinion and while I'm not calling for the outright, all signs point to a much tighter battle than what this spread is suggesting. So grab the points.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Packers/Cowboys.

I'm expecting a wide-open shootout. This one is going to be decided by the two men under center.

The Packers started off slow, but they've turned things around behind the great play of Jordan Love. Love will be given the green light here and Dak Prescott will clearly be up for the challenge with such a high-powered offensive behind him, including the likes of star WR CeeDee Lamb.

Dallas averaged 37.4 PPG at home this year. Love registered a 122.2 rating in all indoor games this year along with a 9:0 TD:INT.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* WC TOY on the OVER Dolphins/Chiefs.

I'm expecting a higher-scoring shootout in this one. 

Kansas City finished the season by winning three of its last four and an 11-6 record. The Chiefs saw the total go UNDER in the final three games, but note that KC has seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

These teams played in early November and the Chiefs won 21-14 here, and while that game did stay below the posted number, the overall situation that each team now finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends do make the OVER the correct call this time around.

Note that Miami has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent.

The Dolphins finished 11-6 as well, but they stumbled down the stretch, losing the final two games, including a crucial one to Buffalo last week. 

I just can't see either team sitting back and waiting for the other to make the first mistake here. It's going to be full speed ahead and a lot more "wide open" than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe as far as the total is concerned.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Texans.

Houston won its first division title since 2019 and I think it'll carry that momentum over here at home.

This is a rematch for Houston after it fell 36-22 at home to the Browns on X-Mas Eve. While Joe Flacco caught the Texans off-guard in that one, I don't think the "old dog" has anymore "tricks" up his sleeve.

CJ Stroud will be playing this time and I think he'll easily match his now overrated counterpart. Flacco's story has been great to this point, but he's still on the tail end of his career.

Stroud returned in last week's crucial contest and looked superb, going 20 of 26 for 264 yards and two TD's. 

Flacco was 5-0 as a starter in the Wildcard Round, so he's no stranger to these types of games, but that was then, and this is now.

Look for Stroud to be the one to put the pressure on today and while the outright win is obviously possible, in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC SOUTH GOM on the Panthers.

With nearly 75% of the early public money on the Bucs, me and my clients are definitely going the other way here and looking for Carolina to pull off the epic spoiler on its home field here in Week 18.

These Panthers' players and coaches are playing for their jobs next year. A big performance here will go a long way in helping that cause.

Carolina plays with revenge here after falling 21-18 at Tampa Bay in early December, earning the cover with the 3.5-point spread. 

The Bucs are off a heart-breaking 23-13 loss to the Saints last week. Tampa is an unrealistic 7-1 ATS on the road this year, but note that the Bucs are just 2-3 ATS in their last five as favorites.

Bryce Young was 19 of 32 in last week's 26-0 loss to Jacksonville. 

The Panthers will be risking life and limb here to try and pull off the outright upset and to rebound from last week's terrible effort.

I just don't trust Baker Mayfield in this important position whatsoever.

Look for Young to settle down and to match his counterpart and look for the home side to, at the very least, earn the comfortable cover once it's all said and done.

Grab the points, the play is CAROLINA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NORTH TOY on the UNDER Steelers/Ravens.

I think this is a great situational play. Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring affairs coming into this one, but just like their first contest of the year, a 17-10 Pittsburgh win at home, I'm anticipating another lower-scoring defensive battle. 

Situationally this one sets up to be a defensive battle. The Ravens have clinched the No. 1 seed and have nothing to play for here on paper, but they won't simply be rolling over. That said, there won't be any need to try and run up the score either. In fact, Baltimore's best strategy on offense will be to try and kill the clock as fast as possible to just end this game as fast as possible, so as to limit any potential costly injuries. 

Pittsburgh needs to win this game if it has any shot at a Wildcard. The Steelers have seen the total go OVER in four straight after last week's 30-23 victory, but despite that Pittsburgh has still seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

All signs point to the rematch in Baltimore also staying well UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC TOY on the UNDER Packers/Vikes.

To say this is a "big" game for these 7-8 divisional foes would be a big understatement obviously.

Minnesota beat the Packers 24-10 in Green Bay as a one-point dog back in October, and note that the the Pack have seen the total go UNDER the number in four of their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home divisional home loss vs. an opponent.

I'm expecting a similar final combined score here in the second game, as to what we saw in the first.

The Packers snapped a two-game slide with a 33-30 win at Carolina and they've now seen the total go OVER the number in five straight. But that's also significant to note as Green Bay has seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

The Vikes are looking to snap their string of poor play after losing four of their last five, most recently a 30-24 loss to Detroit. 

The loser of this game is done for the season, so expect a "play-off like atmosphere" in this one, but as they say, "defense wins championships,"  and in my opinion, all signs definitely point to a very defensive affair here.

This number is high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Falcons/Bears.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm now finally expecting those trends to end this weekend.

Atlanta snapped a two-game slide in last week's 29-10 win over the Colts and I have no reason not to believe it can't carry over that offensive momentum here.

The Bears are playing their best football of the season and won't be "rolling over" here after winning four of their last five, including a 27-16 victory here over Arizona last weekend.

The bottom line here is that neither team has been mathematically eliminated yet, and I'm expecting this extreme sense of competition that they'll play with here will translate into a wide-open high-scoring shootout.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* GOW on the Jets.

Everyone and their dog is all over the Browns right now, except for me and my clients this week.

New York is 6-9 and coming off a season-saving 30-28 win over Washington X-Mas Eve and I see no reason not to believe that the visiting side can't carry that momentum over here. 

The Browns are 7-1 SU/ATS at home this year. They're 10-5 overall and they've defied the odds with Joe Flacco under center.

But after three straight SU/ATS victories in a row, I say for sure that it's now Cleveland that's VASTLY over-rated. The book is out on Flacco now for sure and I think New York's defense is going to throw a lot at Cleveland's aging pivot (also note that Cleveland is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row.

Don't get me wrong, I like Flacco, and I like the Browns as a team this year. 

But I don't bet with my heart, I bet with my head and in my opinion, the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to a much tighter game than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe here on Thursday night.

Grab the points, the play is NEW YORK

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST TOM on the OVER Giants/Eagles.

This is a great situational play. Despite being eliminated from contention at 5-9, the Giants won't be rolling over here as they attempt to play spoiler vs. their division rival.

New York had won three straight before last week's 24-6 loss at New Orleans. Note though that the Giants have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 off a SU/ATS conference road loss in which they were held to 9 or fewer points in.

The Eagles will be beyond motivated here obviously after three straight SU/ATS losses (note though that Philly has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after three or more straight SU/ATS setbacks in a row.)

I like betting on motivated teams when betting "overs" in the NFL and that's the case here for sure.

All signs point to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC WEST GOY on the Chiefs.

The Chiefs beat the Raiders 31-17 as 9.5-point favorites back in Week 12. They won and covered in that contest, but since then the Chiefs have gone 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS.

That's significant for us to note here though as the Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five after three or more ATS losses in a row.

The Raiders are holding on by a thread at 6-8. They snapped a three-game slide with a 63-21 win over the Chargers, but let's take that victory with a "Grain of Salt."

I had a play on the Chargers on Saturday and they easily covered the spread and they had a huge rebound on the defensive end like I predicted as well. The moral of the story was to not "overreact" to the loss the week before.

And that's the case for Las Vegas's victory as well. Let's not read anything into that, as I'm instead expecting a major letdown here in this difficult road venue.

KC still has a chance to finish 12-5 this year with upcoming games vs. Bengals and Chargers.

I say the CHIEFS lay the hammer down in this one from start to finish. No mercy on Christmas Day.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Jaguars.

Jacksonville is 8-6 SU/ATS after three straight SU/ATS losses. The Jags are down, but they're not out though.

Jacksonville is still in No. 1 in the division by owning the tiebreakers over Indianapolis and Houston, so this week's game essentially becomes the most important of the year. The swoon can no longer continue, but here's a favorable matchup to get untracked against.

Tampa is 7-7 and 9-5 ATS. The Bucs can't afford to take the foot off the gas either, but I still like CJ Beathard and the visiting side here over Baker Mayfield and the Bucs. 

Tampa's defense ranks 25th in Opponent Yards (359.9)

Beathard's obviously a downgrade from Trevor Lawrence, but I still think they'll find ways to move the ball today and at the very least, match whatever Mayfield can put together. 

The Jags are allowing 360.1 yards per game, so it's not only Beathard that will ahve to step up here. 

The Bucs have won three straight, but note that Tampa is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU victories in a row.

Tampa has New Orleans on deck, so there's no doubt that this also sets up as a classic "look ahead" spot for the home side, as that'll essentially be for the division championship.

With games against Carolina and Tennesse upcoming, Jacksonville can still end the season on a big winning run.

But one game at a time.

The play is JACKSONVILLE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE GOW on the Falcons.

It's a big game for both teams, but I'll argue a lot more so for the 6-8 Falcons than the 8-6 Colts.

With nearly 75% of the public money on the visiting side, we're going full on contrarian here and going the other way. 

Off a 34-14 loss at Cincinnati, the Colts bounced back with an important victory at home over Pittsburgh last week. 

It's do or die essentially for the Falcons though after back-to-back divisional losses as a slight favorite. Of course, Atlanta benefits from being in a weak division, but it's "now or never" this weekend.

ATL has in fact responded well in this spot for bettors though, going 8-4 ATS in its last 12 off a SU/ATS divisional loss. 

Look for the hungry home side to pull away down the stretch, the play is on ATLANTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* PRIME-TIME ROUT on the Chargers.

The Bills are 8-6 and seem to be back on track after destroying the Cowboys last weekend.

With a home game vs. New England next week, followed by a season finale at the Dolphins, will the visitors get caught "looking ahead?!" 

I think this is a classic "trap" game. "Letdown" spot + "look-ahead" spot = "trap game!"

The Chargers got destroyed 63-21 by Las Vegas last week, which prompted the firing of its headcoach immediately after. Backup QB Easton Stick was in fact decent, finishing 23 of 32 for 257 yards, three TD's and one INT. 

Giff Smith will be the interim head coach, and I think the defense will bounce back here and that the "new coach" factor is something that can't be overlooked for the home side here.

Look for Buffalo to go up early, but to take the foot off the gas in the second half, allowing Stick to repeat his performance from last week in garbage time when he was so efficient.

Grab the points, the play is SAN DIEGO.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* THURSDAY NIGHT TOY on the OVER Saints/Rams.

It's a big game here on Thursday night and I'm expecting some offensive fireworks.

Both teams are 7-7. The Saints are 3-4 on the road, while the Rams are 4-3 at home.

After three straight losses, the Saints have now won back-to-back games, posting a combined 52 points in the process. 

The Rams have won four of their last five and combined to score 149 points over that span. With two road games at the Gians and the 49ers, it's sort of "now or never" for the Rams right now.

These teams played in New Orleans last year and the Saints posted the 27-20 win. I'm expecting another competitive battle here in LA on Thursday night, but one that sees a few more points hit the board.

This number is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC NON-DIVISIONAL TOY on the OVER Eagles/Hawks.

I live in the Pacific Northwest. At this time last year it was well below freezing with many feet of snow piled high on the side of the road.

This year El Nino (or is it El Nina?!) has come around again and it's quite warm for this time of the season. Monday will be a calm night. No rain, no wind and decently warm. 

It's perfect football weather and I think that'll help these hungry teams in eclipsing this posted total sooner, rather than later.

When I bet on "overs" in the NFL, I like betting on motivated teams. Teams that can't afford to sit back and wait for the other one to make the first mistake, but instead will have to attack from the get go and keep the foot on the gas until the final whistle.

And that'll be the case here for these two teams in my estimation. 

Philadelphia is 10-3, but two of its three losses have come in the last two games. 

After falling 42-19 at home to the 49ers, last week the Eagles fell 33-13 at Dallas (note though Philly has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four off a SU/ATS divisional road loss as an underdog.)

The Seahawks are now just 6-7 after four straight losses. Seattle's great start is firmly in the rear-view mirror, but it's clearly "now or never" for the struggling Seahawks.

As I said, I like betting on motivated teams when betting OVERS in the NFL and it goes without saying that each of these teams will be risking life and limb in trying to secure a victory here.

But these defenses should be able to set up their offenses as well. 

While they've each played to some lower-scoring games of late, the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with the numbers/trends, all point to this Monday Night game eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later.

The play is indeed on the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF YEAR on the Commanders.

Outright victory?! While anything is possible, my official call here will be to grab as many points as you can.

This is a great "situational" play.

Washington is 4-9, including 3-4 on the road. It's 5-2 ATS away from friendly confines though.

The Rams are 6-7 SU, 3-3 at home, and 3-3 ATS in front of the home town crowd as well.

The Commanders have fallen apart, but haven't quite thrown in the white towel yet. Off four straight SU losses, and three straight ATS setbacks, note that Washington is in fact 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more straight ATS setbacks in a row.

Grab the points, the play is WASHINGTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOW on the UNDER Jets/Dolphins.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm finally expecting more of a defensive affair here on Sunday.

New York is 5-8, including 2-3 on the road, while Miami is 9-4, inculding 5-1 at home. 

The Jets are off the 30-6 win over Houston, which snapped a four-game slide.

They play with revenge here after the 34-13 loss at Miami earlier in the season and NY has in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent.

Miami is oft the listless 28-27 home loss to Tennessee as a 13.5-point favorite, and I'm expecting it to double-down defensively this week after that mental lapse.

This number is a little high, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC TOTAL BEST OF BEST on the UNDER Bucs/Packers.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but I'm predicting much more of a defensive affair here finally on Sunday afternoon.

This is a huge game for both teams, and as such, I'm expecting a "war of attrition" in this one. 

Tampa Bay is 6-7, and so too is Green Bay.

The Bucs have seen the total go OVER in three straight, but that's significant to take note of, as Tampa Bay has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight OVERS in a row.

This one definitely has all the makings of a tight, lower-scoring defensive-battle, the play is the UNDER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NON-CONF. GOW on the Vikings.

Both teams are 7-6. The Vikes are 5-2 SU on the road and 5-0-2 ATS. Cincinnati 4-3 SU at home and 3-3-1 ATS.

Nick Mullens replaced Josh Dobbs in the fourth quarter in last week's 3-0 win over the Raiders and he had 83 yards on 9 of 13 passing. I just think he's going to be able to match pace with Benagls' backup Jake Browning, wh granted has been great so far in place of Joe Burrow.

But let's be really clear about this, Browning is no Burrow. And now with two games out on this guy to get some good footage on him, I expect this Minnesota defense, which concedes only 18.6 PPG (5th), to give Browning a hell of a time today. 

The bottom line is that this QB "mismatch" is in fact a lot more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

This is a great situational play and while I do think the outright win is a possibility, my official call will be to grab as many points as you can with MINNESOTA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Giants.

Of course this one "means more" to Green Bay. It's 6-6 and it's won three straight, including a big 27-19 victory over KC last week as a six-point dog.

The Packers though are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after three or more SU/ATS victories in a row. Now they're a big favorite on the road on Monday night facing a down and out 4-8 Giants team.

But New York won't be rolling over here in my estimation. Quite the opposite in fact. The Giants have won two straight. Last week they beat New England 10-7. 

The Packers are now the "flavor of the week" it seems after their recent surge, but I'm going contrarian here and expecting the Giants to relish trying to play the role of spoiler here vs. their young counterpart in Jordan Love.

In a contest that I see coming down to the wire, I'm grabbing the points. The play is NEW YORK.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC EAST GOM on the Cowboys.

These two teams are really evenly matched. In all honesty, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these sides to win on "any given Sunday." 

But Dallas plays with revenge from a 28-23 loss at Philadelphia at the start of November, it plays at home and it's playing the better overall "football" right now (Dallas off four straight wins, including a 41-35 victory over Seattle last time out. Philadelphia is off the humbling 42-19 home loss to the 49ers.)

And when you add on the fact that over 60% of the early public money is on the visitors, then all of these situational factors add up to indeed make the COWBOYS my No. 1 NFC EAST TOP SIDE play for December.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC SOUTH GOY on the Bucs.

It's a big game, because this division is viewed as being pretty terrible, with each team still having a shot at winning it. 

I guess the Panthers have no chance, but certainly the 5-7 Bucs and the 6-6 Falcons are neck-and-neck right now.

Tampa though plays with revenge after a 16-13 loss at home to the Falcons in October, but note that the Bucs are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. 

Atlanta's off B2B wins, but I'm not convinced about Desmond Ridder whatsoever. The Falcons' defense has been great, but I still think Baker Mayfield will be able to move the ball today. 

Tampa's defensive numbers are completely comparable here and with nearly 75% of the early money on the home side, I'm definitely going contrarian.

Grab the points, the play is TAMPA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOW on the OVER Pats/Steelers.

A really low total here for a number of different reasons, but a little TOO low in my estimation.

New England is 2-10. It's lost five straight, scoring 47 points combined. Last week it fell 6-0 to to the Chargers. But note that the Pats have seen the total go OVER the number in a near-perfect five of their last six after five or more straight ATS losses in a row. 

Pittsburgh though is 7-4. It's also coming off a loss though, falling 24-10 at home to the lowly Cardinals. These two teams combined for ten points last week, hence the super low total.

New England's defense continues to be decent, but now after three straight games of putting its offense in a position to win, but only failing miserably each time, I think the unit has a major collapse finally here on the road.

The Steelers are allowing 19.1 PPG, while averaging just 16. Mitch Trubisky is under center for the home side, and last week he filled in decently when QB Kenny Pickett went down with injury, finishing 11 of 17 for 117 yards and a TD. 

Look for great defense to set up these hungry offenses and for this total to creep OVER this super low number as the game comes down the stretch.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOW on the OVER Chargers/Patriots.

At 2-9, the Patriots are out of the running for a playoff spot, while the 4-7 Chargers are still mathematically in the conversation.

Regardless, two teams that have nothing to lose but another game collide here and I think we'll see some offensive fireworks.

The Patriots stink and their QB issue remains a problem. New England has lost four straight, and it's seen the total go UNDER in three straight. New England though has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

LA is off three straight losses of its own, which is also significant to note in this case as the Chargers have seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row.

With each team opening things up offensively like I anticipate, all signs point to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC NON-DIV GOM on the Texans.

Houston is now 6-5 after a tough 24-21 home loss here to Jacksonville last weekend. Previous to that the Texans had won three in a row.

I think the home side gets back on track here this weekend in another tough matchup.

At one point this year the Broncos lost 70-20 to Miami, but now the Broncos enter on a five-game win streak (4-1 ATS.) 

It's Denver that's now the over-rated team here. Completely overlooked by the oddsmakers and most of the public to this point, they majority of the early public money sees them backing the "flavor of the week" and grabbing the points.

But Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last nine after five or more SU victories in a row.

Look for Houston rookie CJ Stroud to put the pressure on Russell Wilson and for the home side to eventually pull away for the comfortable win and cover.

The play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* GOW on the Hawks.

This game means a lot for both teams, but more so for Seattle, which is 6-5 and barely holding on to the sixth playoff spot. Dallas is 8-3 and sitting one spot ahead of the Hawks for fifth spot.

Seattle lost a key game 31-13 to the 49ers last week, and with a date vs. San Francisco after this, this almost becomes a "must win," "do-or-die" type of game for the Hawks. Seattle is so far averaging 20.8 PPG, while allowing 22.6.

The Cowboys rolled to a 45-10 win over Washington last week. The Cowboys are averaging 31.5 PPG, while allowing 16.8. 

Seattle is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series, and while I'm stopping short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe.

Grab the points, the play is SEATTLE.

Good luck, NP

10* OVER Chiefs/Raiders (AFC WEST TOY)

Both teams have played to several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to come to an end here this evening.

KC is 7-3, including 3-1 on the road. 

The Chiefs though have now played to six straight UNDERS after last week's 21-17 home loss to the Eagles in the Super Bowl rematch. Note though that KC has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite.

Las Vegas is 5-6. It's 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS in its last three. The Raiders are playing a lot better over the last month, and despite now having seen the total go UNDER in four straight, note that the Chiefs have in fact still seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Raiders two-game win streak did come to an end last time out as well in the 20-13 setback at Miami.

With both teams looking to bounce back off losses in this important contest, and when taking into account the rest of the stats and situational factors listed above, everything in my opinion does indeed point to this one eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Browns/Broncos.

Here's a great situational play. Cleveland is 7-3 and it's won three in a row. It's defied the odds and gotten great defensive play, combined with great special teams play.

Denver is 5-5 now after winning four straight. The Broncos have seen the total go UNDER in five straight, but note that Denver has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row. 

These are the two hottest teams in the league right now and I expect this total to fly OVER the number sooner, rather than later.

(more analysis available)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the OVER Dolphins/Jets.

This is the first ever Black Friday NFL game and I'm expecting this one to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch as far as the toal is concerned.

Miami is 7-3, while New York is 4-6. The Jets now turn to QB Tim Boyle to right the ship. The offense has no where to go but up, as NY has scored just one TD combined over three games this month. Boyle is known for throwing INT's, which will only set up this dangerous Miami offense with lots of great field position.

Miami is just 1-3 ATS in its last four and that's why I'm steering clear of the side, but note that the Fish are still averaging 30.5 PPG this year, which is ranked No. 1. 

Expect this faster-paced affair to eclipse the posted number sooner, rather than later. The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* NFC WEST GOY on the Hawks.

Seattle is 6-4 and second the AFC West, trailing the 49ers. Seattle is off the 17-16 loss to the Rams. The Hawks though have been trading good outings with bad ones over their last four games and I say that pattern continues here at home on the short week and the national stage.

San Fran snapped a three-game slide with back-to-back wins now, but with a game at Philadelphia up next, followed be a home rematch vs. the Hawks, will the 49ers get caught a little unprepared here on the short week, on the road and with so much to look forward to?! The possibility is definitely there.

They say that divisional contests always mean the most and that they almost always mean the most to the home side. 

Look for the hungry HAWKS to, at the very least, comfortably sneak in through the back door here at home with the healthy spread that they've been afforded on Thanksgiving night.

Good luck, NP

This is an 8* SIDE ROUT on the Eagles.

KC won the Super Bowl last year vs. the Eagles, but Philadelphia has had this one circled on its calendar since then.

Both teams have looked great this year, but Philadelphia overall has looked like it has played with a lot more chemistry to this point.

Revenge plays a big part in me taking this pick. It's not the Super Bowl. It's not the Playoffs. It's a BIG game, but it's one which I see coming "right down to the wire."

I'm grabbing the points, the play is PHILADELPHIA.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* AFC TOM on the OVER Raiders/Dolphins.

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I expect those trends to end here finally on Sunday.

Las Vegas is 5-5 and Miami is 6-3. 

The Raiders made some changes out of necessity and they've won two straight. They've seen the total go UNDER the number in two straight, but note that Las Vegas has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row.

The road ahead for the Raiders is a brutal one, with KC, Minnesota and the Chargers at home up next, followed by another game at KC. It's do or die, now or never for the visitors.

Miami has had a week off after its 21-14 loss to KC, but with a week off to prepare and plan, I'm expecting the Fish to keep the foot on the gas offensively from start to finish.

A great situational play on the OVER.

(more analysis avaialble)

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* BOOKIEKILLER on the Ravens.

This important divisional matchup favors the home side in my opinion.

The Bengals are now 5-4 after a last-second 30-27 loss to the Texans on Sunday, while the Ravens are 7-3 after a tough 33-31 loss to Cleveland.

Each team had big early leads, and each collapsed late. Did they get caught "looking ahead" to this Thursday night divisional matchup?! Very likely!

When they met earlier this year in Cincinnati, the Ravens won 27-24, but I'm expecting a much more lop-sided outcome here on Thursday night.

Lay the points, the play is BALTIMORE.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* TOTAL BOOKIEKILLER on the OVER Broncos/Bills.

This is a really big game for both teams. The Broncos have seemingly turned the corner with their performance, as they come out of their bye week off two straight quality victories.

Denver has seen the total go UNDER in three straight, but note that the Broncos have in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Another win, and Denver is right back in the race.

Buffalo is now just 5-4 after a 24-18 loss to Cincinnati last week. The Bills are desperate to break the slide and get their offense back on track here as well after seeing four of their last five games go UNDER the number.

Expect these two veteran QB's to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries of this contest. The play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP

This is a 10* FIRST HALF TOP SIDE on the 49ers.

If you can't get San Francisco on the FIRST HALF option, I also absolutely love it for the ENTIRE GAME here as well.

After three straight SU/ATS losses in a row, but now coming out of its bye week, I think the 49ers finally put it together and keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one.

Jacksonville has won five straight, but it's still just 1-2 at home this season. Yes, the Jags are also coming out of a bye, but I think that it came at the worst time. Chemistry will be affected.

Conversely, the bye came at the best possible time for the 49ers, who have since also brought in defensive-specialist DE Chase Young from Washington at the trade deadline.

Jacksonville's weakness is on pass defense, and it's now or never for Brock Purdy.

I say SAN FRANCISCO jumps out to the early lead in this one (but again, if you can't find a FIRST HALF line, I also like the 49ERS for the ENTIRE game.)

Good luck, NP 

This is a 10* SHOCKER on the Texans.

As primarily a situational capper, this one falls right into my wheelhouse. 

Houston catches the Bengals "looking ahead" here to their Thursday night divisional matchup vs. the red hot Ravens. 

The Texans are 4-4 and off the big 39-37 win over a tough Tampa defense.

I like Stroud to keep his team competitive late again here.

Grab the points, the play is HOUSTON.

Good luck, NP