Both clubs are in the top 5 in Serie A standings. Bologna sits in 4th and Roma is in 5th. Bologna won the reverse fixture 2-0 at home, in December. This match will be played at Stadio Olimpico which will give Roma the edge. Roma won the last h2h meeting here by a 1-0 score.

Bologna is very tough at home but only has 4 Serie A victories on the road. Roma has 11 of 16 home matches in Serie A this term. Roma is also unbeaten in eight of its last nine home matches against Bologna. Bologna hasn't beaten Roma in both matches in a season since way back in 1967. Roma gets it done on Monday!

The gap between these clubs is wide. Fiorentina has a +7 goal differential. Salernitana has a -42 goal differential. That's the worst by a mile in Serie A. There is truth in the statement that Fiorentina often struggles to score on the road. Salernitana is the worst team in the league though and can't keep the ball out of the net. Salernitana is on borrowed time. Relegation is reality. A victory for Fiorentina will officially seal their fate.

Salernitana is winless in its last 14 league matches. That includes 11 losses and 3 draws. Salernitana will want to snap its skid with a win for the home fans at Stadio Arechi. Fiorentina isn't going to let that happen though and will be determined to earn a rare road victory. Fiorentina won 3-0 in December's reverse fixture and will not be denied on this day either. Salernitana's struggles continue!

Bournemouth has scored 1 goal in 2 of its 3 April matches. The Cherries are unlikely to score more than 1 against an Aston Villa squad which blanked Arsenal 2-0 last Sunday and which has Emi Martinez in its goal. Martinez, the goalie for the Argentine national team, is controversial but he's also really good.

Aston Villa was just in a Europa League match on Thursday and may have some tired legs. Scoring won't come easily. Villa has scored 2 or less in 6 of its last 7 matches. Six of the past 7 h2h matches, including each of the 3 at Villa Park, have finished with 3 goals or less. Go with the Under!

Luton Town is facing relegation and is off a 5-1 loss. The Hatters are one of the weakest teams in the league and have only one victory in their last 10 matches. Brentford is off a 2-0 victory over Sheffield and is undefeated in its last 4 league matches.

Six of Brentford's last seven meetings with Luton have seen the Bees earn a victory, including a 3-1 home win in December. The last meeting here at Kenilworth Road resulted in a 3-0 victory for Brentford. That was in English Championship League play, on Halloween in 2020. The Hatters are dealing with major injury concerns on their back-line. Their chances of staying in the top league will take another hit on Saturday. Brentford wins!

Here's what I said prior to the first leg: "Dortmund has suffered three successive quarter-final Champions League eliminations. The German squad looked bad against Stuttgart and will have trouble scoring today against a rested Atletico Madrid squad which doesn't concede often at home. Go with Atletico Madrid." Atletico Madrid won 1-0.

Now the second leg will be played at Dortmund's Signal Iduna Park. With the venue shifting from Spain to Germany, we are now able to get an extra half goal with the visiting Spanish squad. In a match which has a great chance at resulting in a draw, that extra half goal may easily prove to be the difference. Look for Atletico Madrid to earn at least a draw and to advance to the semi-finals of the Champions League once again.

Playing at Metropolitano Stadium will give Atletico Madrid with the edge in this match. Atletico has never suffered a Champions League knockout defeat here, or their old Vicente Calderon home. Since a 1-0 (group-stage) defeat to AC Milan in November 2021, Atletico have gone nine Champions League home games without a loss - winning each of the last four here.

Dortmund has suffered three successive quarter-final Champions League eliminations. The German squad looked bad against Stuttgart and will have trouble scoring today against a rested Atletico Madrid squad which doesn't concede often at home. Go with Atletico Madrid.

This is a true clash of the titans. Real Madrid is a 14-time champion. Manchester City is the current champion. It's a rematch of a battle a little less than a year ago which saw Manchester City win 5-1. That was the semis and this is the quarter finals. The super heavyweights may not combine for 6 goals again but they will get at least half that many.

Real Madrid is in top form. The Spanish squad virtually always makes it past the quarter finals. City has the longest winning streak in Champions League history. Both offenses are absolutely top level. Both defenses can be prone to being beaten. Both teams should score and at least 1 of them should do so multiple times. Go with the Over!

Manchester United just suffered an epic collapse against Chelsea a few days ago. United was up 3-2 very late but gave up 2 goals deep into extra time. That devastating defeat will impact them today!

Liverpool will show know mercy. Undefeated (8 wins, 1 draw) in its last 9 league matches, Liverpool just keeps winning. United won when these clubs met March 17 in FA Cup action though. Liverpool will settle the score today. Still traumatized from the Chelsea loss, United has issues on defense right now and won't be able to keep the ball out of the net. Liverpool wins!

I said this about Luton Town last week: "Luton Town is not a good team. The Hatters are off an ugly 6-2 loss in FA Cup action and they reside in 18th spot in the Premier League standings. Injuries have taken a toll, particularly to the defense. The Hatters have also dropped 3 straight league matches. Relegation is becoming more likely." The Hatters would go on to lose 3-2 to Aston Villa. Now Aston Villa is a difficult opponent but at least the Hatters were at home.

Now, they're on the road to take on a hungry Crystal Palace squad. Palace hasn't forgotten that it lost at Luton Town and is out for revenge. Even with that result, four of the Eagles' last five Premier League fixtures against newly-promoted sides have resulted in victory. They are much stronger at home in front of the Selhurst Park faithful. Last home game resulted in a 3-0 victory over Burnley. Palace will exact some revenge from the loss at Luton Town.

The first leg was low-scoring but with this match being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu and with RB Leipzig needing to score goals to win, this match will be much higher-scoring.

Real Madrid is off a 2-2 draw with Valencia in La Liga action. Last Champions League home match, Read Madrid scored 4 times. Leipzig is off a 4-1 victory over VfL Bochum. The Germans will have to throw caution to the wind and that will lead to scoring chances, for both sides. Go with the OVER!

Real Sociedad has been struggling of late but the Spanish side is going to come out with a lot of energy. They lost the first leg, at the Parc des Princes, by a 2-0 score. That means they need to reverse that score here. That's probably wishful thinking but it does ensure that they will be bringing it to their guests from the opening whistle.

The first leg was scoreless at the half but PSG was arguably lucky not to be trailing. Getting some key players back, Sociedad comes out strong again. Only this time, playing the Reale Arena in front of their home fans, they take a lead into halftime!

This will mark Simone Inzaghi's 300th match as a Serie A manager. His team, top of the table Inter Milan, will help him celebrate by taking down mid-table Genoa. Inter is rolling and has a healthy lead on top of the standings. Relentless, playing at San Siro and riding a wave of positive momentum, the home team will not be denied.

Genoa plays much better at home but struggled on the road. They have always had trouble here in Milan. Their last 4 visits to San Siro have all resulted in blowout losses. They fell by scores of 4-0, 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0. Scoring goals in bunches, more than any other team in any of the top leageus, Inter has won every match its played in 2024. Back-to-back 4-0 victories and the last was against Atalanta, a better team than Genoa. Their next match, a visit to Bologna, may be more challenging. But for now, Inter wins another relatively easy one.

As good as Napoli was last season, you'd expect them to at least contend for another UCL spot this season. Well, that has not been the story so far. Having said that, Napoli is coming off a very important win against Sassuolo, where they netted six goals in a 6-1 victory. Napoli has won all of the its last four meetings in Naples against Juventus.

Juventus have a strong record, but haven't been particularly good as of late. They've lost two of their last four contests and struggled against a poor Frosinone side in their last game. Since coming back from injury, Victor Osimhen has scored five goals and assisted one in three games (including his UCL performance against Barcelona.) He should help provide a boost to this Napoli team that was shut out in the reverse fixture. Juventus haven't 'swept' them since 2018-19. Napoli wins this game on Sunday!

Luton Town is not a good team. The Hatters are off an ugly 6-2 loss in FA Cup action and they reside in 18th spot in the Premier League standings. Injuries have taken a toll, particularly to the defense. The Hatters have also dropped 3 straight league matches. Relegation is becoming more likely.

Aston Villa can score goals in bunches. and that spells trouble for the shaky and depleted Luton Town defense. The Lions scored 4 goals last match. They are off consecutive league victories and have won 3 of their last 4. They handled the Hatters with ease in the reverse fixture, a 3-1 victory. The Lions are top 4 in the standings and can't afford not to get max points out of this type of matchup. Undefeated on the road in 2024, they won their last 2 road matches by a combined score of 7-1. They will be too much for the Hatters again on Saturday.

A visit from struggling Brentford is exactly what West Ham needed. The Hammers have dropped 3 straight Premier League matches and need to restore order. Brentford has previously enjoyed success against West Ham but the Bees have dropped 4 of their last 5 and are currently not playing good football. The Bees continue to play without Rico Henry, Aaron Hickey, Ethan Pinnock, Kevin Schade, Bryan Mbeumo and Josh Dasilva.

The Bees have 10 points from their 12 league road matches this season, while West Ham has 19 points in 12 league home matches. This is the Hammers' first game at London Stadium since losing 6-0 against Arsenal, which equalled their biggest ever home loss. They will be extremely determined to win and today will be the day which sees West Ham finally squash the pesky Bees.

Remember what happened when Everton played here last year? Brighton and its fans sure do! The Toffees embarrassed them 5-1. That was last May and its time to make things right. The Toffees are winless in their last 8 league matches (4 losses, 4 draws) and near the bottom of the table. They have scored only 3 goals in their last 6 top flight matches.

The Seagulls just smashed Sheffield 5-0 last match. In their last game here at Amex Stadium, they crushed Crystal Palace 4-1. They will be too much for struggling Everton and a big win will help the fans forget what happened here last year.

Real Sociedad recorded a 3-0 win over Villarreal in the reverse match earlier this season. That was at Villarreal. Playing at home at Estadio Anoeta, Real Sociedad should comfortable pick up maximum points. The last h2h meeting here resulted in a 1-0 victory for Real Sociedad.

It needs to be mentioned that Real Sociedad does have some rather serious injury concerns. However, Villarreal is also dealing with numerous injuries and Real Sociedad has superior depth to deal with theirs. Understand that Real Sociedad is a full 14 points ahead of Villarreal in the standings. The class difference will be evident and Real Sociedad will come away with another win.

Porto will be inspired to play in front of its home fans but that will not be enough. The Portuguese squad is fortunate to even be here. Arsenal is in exceptional current form and scoring goals at an alarming rate. In three February EPL matches, the Gunners have scored 14 goals, conceding only one.

In their last 5 EPL matches, the Gunners are 5-0 with 17 goals scored. That success will carry over to the Champions League. Porto is dealing with some defensive injuries and that will be a problem. Arsenal hasn't been to the knockout stage of the Champions League for 7 years. The Gunners understand the signficance of the moment and will not be denied victory.

The Toffees are fighting to avoid relegation. A visit from a depleted and defensively-challenged Crystal Palace squad is exactly what they need.

Palace is missing a number of key pieces. Cheick Doucoure (Achilles), Rob Holding (ankle), Michael Olise (thigh) and Jesurun Rak-Sakyi (thigh) are all out. Marc Guehi (knee) and Eberechi Eze (thigh) are likely also be out. Will Hughes (ankle) is questionable and less than 100%.

Everton is missing a couple of players but is mostly getting healthy. Importantly, Abdoulaye Doucoure is back and expected to start, as are Seamus Coleman and Amadou Onana.

The Toffees won 3-2 at Crystal Palace and 3-0 the last h2h match at Goodison Park. They win again this afternoon!

Luton Town was living on borrowed time. The bubble finally burst for the Hatters in their last game. They fell 3-1 to Sheffield United, the worst team in the Premiership. Off that loss, they are in no shape to contend with the rejuvenated Red Devils. Really, the warning signs had been there for Luton Town. The Hatters have only won 1 of their last 5 matches.

Undefeated in 4 2024 league matches, Manchester United is 3-0 in February. The wins came by a combined score of 9-4. It's fair to say that United is playing some of its best football in quite some time. The November match was won 1-0 by United. Given the form of the Red Devils and with Luton Town off the loss to Sheffield, this will result in another victory.

Brighton & Hove Albion is a much stronger squad than Sheffield United. Frankly, any club in the Premier League could say the same. Not long for the top flight, Sheffield is in shambles. A victory over Luton Town last game was a nice reprieve but it doesn't change anything. Through 24 matches, Sheffield has a -38 goal differential.

The Seagulls sit in 9th in the table. They are battling a lot of teams and need maximum points here. They responded to their last defeat with a 4-1 victory. Off a 2-1 loss to Tottenham, they will again respond. Brighton wins.

We lost with a German team, RB Leipzig, yesterday afternoon. I felt that it was a good spot for Leipzig at home, getting a 0.5 goal. They had numerous chances and a disallowed goal. It took a beautiful goal and a lot of big saves to beat them. Even so, they were up against an elite Real Madrid team, one of the best in the world. This situation is different. This time, its the German side which is one of the best in the world.

Bayern Munich, undefeated in their last 12 Champions League matches against Italian teams, is strong on the road. Lazio is vulnerable and won't be able to hold back the German giants. Bayern won both matches against Lazio in the Round of 16 in Feb. and March of 2021, including a 4-1 thrashing at Stadio Olimpico. This will be another victory for the superior side. Go with the visitors.

Real Madrid is very talented but playing in Germany will provide host RB Leipzig a considerable advantage. Leipzig is healthy. Looking to make up for disappointment with their last trip to the round of 16, Leipzig will also be hungry. Real Madrid will again play without Jude Bellingham amongst others. The important midfielder will be missed. These teams last met here in October 2022. The German side earned a 3-2 victory. Leipzig is flying under the radar and will surprise once again.

I recently made the following statement about Crystal Palace. "Crystal Palace is a team that Brighton can handle. Palace may not be in immediate relegation danger but they are a bottom tier club. Brighton has a +1 goal differential, CP sits at -14." Brighton did end up handling Palace with ease. Chelsea will do the same.

Palace is currently beaten up mentally and physically. Missing a number of important players, this is not the time to face a Chelsea team which always gives them problems. The Blues have defeated Palace in 12 successive matches. Some were close. Others were not. The end result is always the same. Given the current morale of the home squad, it will be once again!

This match has 3 possible outcomes and by getting an extra half goal with Manchester United, we've got 2 of them covered. United does absolutely have a chance to win this match but the value of also winning in the event of a draw is of great importance.

United has found its scoring form of late. The Red Devils have tallied 11 goals in their last 3 matches, 9 their last 3 in the Premier League. They are well- rested and playing with as much confidence as we've seen in some time. Villa comes off a mid-week loss to Chelsea.

A look at the last 10 top flight h2h meetings reveals that the Red Devils are 6-2-2, six wins, 2 losses and 2 draws. Again, getting a win with a draw is big. United will keep scoring and come away with at least a point.

I won with Brighton last Saturday. That was a home match against Crystal Palace. The Seagulls haven't been good at following up a strong result with another one and a road game at Tottenham is going to be far more challenging.

The visitors are winless their last five top-flight road games on the road and they've failed to score in the last 2 of those matches. The home side has won its last 4 top-flight games at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.

South Korea and Mali have now been eliminated from the Asian Cup and Africa Cup of Nations. That means that Tottenham will see the return of captain Son Heung-min and Yves Bissouma, formerly an important defensive midfielder for Brighton. Brighton will get Mitoma back but will still be without some key pieces. Look for Tottenham to avenge a December loss at Brighton.

Marseille is struggling to score right now. They lost 1-0 to Lyons last match. Three of their last 4 matches have finished with 3 or fewer combined goals.

Marseille is struggling to score at the moment. Metz just struggles to score, period. Only last place Clermont scores fewer goals. In fact, they've only found the back of the net twice over their last 7 Ligue 1 matches. Five of those 7 matches finished with 2 goals or less and today's will do the same.

If Rayo Vallecano can't find victory, a draw is a distinct possibility in this one. Three of the last 4 La Liga meetings between these clubs have ended in draws. I prefer the total.

Three of the last 4 h2h meetings have produced 2 or fewer goals. The last 2 h2h matches at Campo de Futbol de Vallecas both ended 1-1. That could happen again, as could a scoreless draw. A 1-0 (or 2-0) win for the home team is also possible. The visitors are likely to have trouble scoring, either way. Sevilla has only found the back of the net twice in its last 4 league matches. With only 3 total goals in its last 8 league matches, scoring is far from guaranteed for Rayo Vallecano. Both clubs are missing some key attacking pieces. This match goes Under!

Its a Saturday night showdown at San Siro, as Inter Milan meet Juventus in a highly anticipated Derby d'Italia. These are the top 2 teams in Italy right now and this will be a great match. Playing their best football right now, Inter will get the job done.

Inter has won 5 straight matches. They've played 21 matches and have found the back of the net at least once in all 21 of them. They also have 13 clean sheets, most in Serie A. Playing at home in Italy's largest stadium, Inter will find the back of the net for the 22nd straight time with an excellent shot at securing a 14th clean sheet. It'll be a great match and the home fans will leave happy.

Brighton will not be denied in this match! The Seagulls were humiliated 4-0 at Luton Town last match and they're going to be extremely determined to make amends. They are a much stronger team at Amex Stadium.

Crystal Palace is a team that Brighton can handle. Palace may not be in immediate relegation danger but they are a bottom tier club. Brighton has a +1 goal differential, CP sits at -14.

Recent head-to-head meetings at Crystal Palace have resulted in draws but the Seagulls won 1-0 the last h2h match at the Amex. They will respond to the Luton loss with an important victory today!

The Bundesliga weekend gets started Borussia Dortmund and Heidenheim collide wat the Voith Arena on Friday night. If you haven't heard of Heidenheim, its because its their first even Bundesliga season. They've been exceeding expectations, which has kept the price reasonable, but are in for a reality check against a superior Borussia Dortmund squad.

One of the top 5 teams, Borussia Dortmund has a +14 goal differential through 19 matches. Heidenheim has also played 19 matches but has a -7 goal differential. Borussia Dortmund settled for a 2-2 draw in the reverse fixture but has been unstoppable in 2024. Three straight victories and 10 goals in the process. Heidenheim, for its part, is off 3 straight 1-1 draws. Matches here have been exciting and high-scoring but in the end Heidenheim won't be able to keep up.

Bournemouth is normally capable of putting the ball in the back of the net but is going to have trouble scoring today. Not only has Bournemouth scored only once in the last 4 h2h matches but West Ham is a different team at home. Each of their last three Premier League home matches have seen the Hammers keep a clean sheet. The Hammers are dealing with some missing players. Both clubs are for that matter. That won't help the scoring. The last h2h match was a 1-1 final and the last at London Stadium was a 2-0 final. This one also stays at 2 or less!

West Ham, off a 1-0 loss in FA Cup action, hasn't conceded a single goal in its last five league matches. Last league match was a 0-0 draw. Sheffield which has scored fewer goals than any club in the Premier League is unlikely to snap that streak. Sheffield has at least cleaned up defensively lately. Last league match was a 2-0 loss to Man. City. Four of the past 5 h2h matches have finished with 2 goals or less. With West Ham missing some key attacking pieces, this match will also be low-scoring.

Brentford and Nottingham Forest are close in the standings. Forest is ahead by 1 point but Brentford has played one less match and has a much better goal differential. Playing this game at Gtech Community Stadium gives Brentford an advantage. Two matches between these clubs at Nottingham Forest have both resulted in draws but the game here at Brentford resulted in a 2-1 win for the Bees.

Brentford will be inspired from the return of Ivan Toney. He's back from a gambling suspension and will captain the team immediately. Though he may ultimately end up elsewhere, his importance can't be understated. Toney said this: "Big dog's back."

Brentford boss Thomas Frank said this about Toney's return: "It's massive, no doubt about that," is assessment. It's like signing a Premier League striker who can score 20 goals."

Brentford also benefits from an extra day of recovery time. Both clubs played in the FA Cup this week but the Bees did so on Tuesday while Forest played Wednesday. The edges will add up to a victory for the home team in Toney's return match.

Newcastle earned a much-needed 3-0 victory last weekend. That was an FA Cup match against Sunderland though. The Magpies preceded that win with 3 straight premier league defeats. Manchester City is getting healthier and has found its form. The Citizens have 4 wins and 1 draw their alst 5 league matches. City is a commanding 26-1-5 in 32 matches against Newcastle. This will result in another victory for the superior squad.

Off an embarrassing 1-0 loss to Middlesbrough in the EFL Cup Semis, the Blues will take it out on Fulham in Saturday's West London Derby. The Cottagers aren't strong on the road, as they can't keep the ball out of the net in their away matches. Chelsea has also had trouble on the road but has been winning at home. The Blues are 3-0 their last 3 home matches.

In addition to having homefield advantage, the Blues benefit from an extra day's worth of rest. Fulham's loss to Liverpool came a full 24 hours after Chelsea's setback to Middlesbrough. Chelsea won 2-0 the last time the clubs faced each other. This will be another home win for the Stamford Bridge faithful.

These clubs just faced each other in EPL action. It was a high-scoring 4-1 win for Wolverhampton. Now they meet in the third round of FA Cup play. Wolverhampton is missing its top scorer, Hwang Hee-chan. Brentford will be happy he's not available as he just scored twice against them. The aggressive attacker will be missed.

Prior to the 4-1 match, two previous matches between these clubs resulted in scores of 2-0 and 1-1. Without Hwang Hee-chan terrorizing the Bees, this FA Cup match will play out like those two previous matches. Go with the Under. ***FA CUP TOW***

This is a battle of top clubs. Girona FC is tied (with Real Madrid) with 45 points, most in La Liga. Atletico Madrid and Barcelona are next with 38 points a piece. Both can score but both are also adept at keeping the ball out of the net.

Girona is off a 1-1 draw. Atletico Madrid is off a 1-0 victory. Three of its last 4 games have finished with 2 goals or less.

Girona can score but doesn't usually do so against Atletico Madrid. The last h2h meeting had a final score of 1-0. The last 5 h2h matches have all finished with three goals or less. Four of those finished below that mark. This one will too. Go with the UNDER! ***LA LIGA TOY***

Give me the extra 0.5 goal with Villarreal. Valencia is a little ahead in the standings but these clubs are very close. Both won their last match. Even with its victory, Valencia has only won 6 of 18 league matches. Expecting them to win is asking a lot. Villareal only has 2 defeats in its last 6 matches. Valencia is winless its last 3 against Villarreal. Villareal won both matches at home and it got a 1-1 draw here at Estadio Mestalla. At least another draw appears likely. Go with the visitors! ***LA LIGA GOM***

This number is too high! Liverpool doesn't concede. The Reds have allowed only 16 goals in 19 league matches. Every other club has allowed at least 20.

Newcastle has allowed only 25 goals in 19 EPL matches. Thats 4th best in the league behind only Liverpool, Man City and Arsenal.

Four meetings since 2022 have produced scores of 1-0, 2-1, 2-0 and 2-1. Go with the UNDER! **EPL DELIGHT**

Brentford has scored only 3 goals in its past 4 matches. The Bees had 3 goals against Luton Town, one of the worst teams in the EPL, on 12/2 but otherwise have managed only 2 goals in their past 6 matches.

Crystal Palace had an unlikely 2-2 draw against Manchester City on 12/16 but otherwise has managed only 5 goals in its other 6 matches.

Five h2h meetings had scores of 1-1, 1-1, 1-1, 0-0, 0-0. Not sure that we get another draw but am expecting another low-scoring match. ***Golden Boot***

The fact that both these clubs can score has been worked into the line. We've got a high number to work with. Too high. Tottenham's last 2 matches had scores of 2-1 and 2-0. Brighton's last 5 matches had scores of 1-1, 2-0, 1-0, 1-1 and 2-1.

In looking at the last 10 h2h matches, it is revealed that al1 10 finished with 3 goals or less. 21 combined goals for the 10 matches, an average of 2.1 per.

Given the current form of these clubs, I've got this one also finishing with 3 or less. Go with the Under. ***Total Of Week***

Off a loss at Wolverhampton, Chelsea will be in top form today. The Blues do have some serious injury concerns. Palace isn't fully healthy here either though and Chelsea is by far the stronger squad. The Blues know that a win is needed to put them in the top half of the table. They have beaten Palace 11 straight times. The 11 straight defeats marks CP's longest losing streak against any opponent in club history. Chelsea is 6-0 against the Eagles the past six games at Stamford Bridge. The streak continues. Go with Chelsea. ***Golden Boot***

Aston Villa's last match was a low-scoring 1-1 draw, no thanks to VAR. That's unusual for Villa though. Games are typically exciting and full of goals. Only Manchester City has scored more goals than AV. After getting blanked 2-0 by West Ham, United will bounce back to find the back of the net. Two of the last 3 head-to-head meetings have finished with more than 3 goals. Go with the Over! **Golden Boot**

Aston Villa has a strong chance of reaching or exceeding this total by itself. This is a case of the top offense in the EPL against the worst defense in the EPL. With 37 goals in 17 league matches, Villa has scored more goals than any other team. With 43 goals allowed in 17 matches, Sheffield United has conceded more goals than any other team. Villa allows more than a goal per game and Sheffield doesn't usually get blanked. So the underdog should also contribute to the scoring. I'll call for a 3-1 final but it realistically could easily finish with more than that. ***EPL TOW***

Brighton is ahead in the standings but not by that much. Off an improbable 2-2 comeback draw at Manchester City, it's Crystal Palace which is in better form and which has the momentum. Brighton was fortunate to only lose its last match by a 2-0 score. The Seagulls are dealing with injuries and fatigue. Thursday's match is being played at Selhurst Park, which favors Palace. Five of the last 8 matches between these clubs have ended in draws. Play Palace at +0.5 goals. ***GOLDEN BOOT***

Borussia Monchengladbach does tend to play some high-scoring matches. Their propensity for doing so is keeping this total high. This match will play out differently. The previous 2023 match between these clubs finished with a 1-1 draw. Goals are going be hard to come by again in this one. The hosts are in poor offensive form and will need to win this one by being sound defensively. Eintracht Frankfurt scored 0 goals last match, on only 4 shots, and has scored 1 or less in 3 of its last 4. Eintracht Frankfurt sits 8th in the table but the majority of the teams above them score a lot more goals. The last two meetings in Frankfurt have both finished with 2 combined goals. They may get that many again but they won't get any more! ***BUNDESLIGA TOTAL OF THE YEAR***

With 33 goals in 16 EPL matches, Newcastle has no trouble finding the back of the net. Keeping the ball out of the net is a different matter. The Magpies conceded 4 goals last match and and 9 goals in their past 3 matches, across all leagues. Its been a similar story for Fulham. Through 16 matches, the Cottagers have scored 26 goals but have all conceded 26. That's an average of 3.25 goals per match. Last 5 matches have had 4, 5, 7, 5 and 5 goals scored. The Cottagers are scoring goals in bunches right now but often give up a lot on the road. This has all the makings of a high-scoring match. ***EPL TOW***

Two previous matches have seen Tottenham victorious by scores of 2-0 and 3-1. Tottenham is off a 4-1 thrashing of Newcastle. Nottingham Forest has 4 losses and 1 draw its last 5 EPL matches. Forest was outscored 13-5. The victory against Newcastle was just what the Spurs needed. They are gunning for the top 4 and need maximum points from this game. Forest has 17 goals in 16 matches. Tottenham has 33 goals in 16 matches. Even with some injury concerns, a revitalized and determined Tottenham team will be too much for outmatched Nottingham Forest! ***EPL GOY***

The first leg was low-scoring, a 1-0 final back in September. This one sets up for more scoring. At the top of Group C, Real Betis needs a point from the match to ensure a place in the knockout round playoffs. A win will confirm a direct spot for them in the round of 16. The visiting Rangers need a victory. This will lead to them throwing caution to the wind. Both clubs are missing some key defensive players which will lead to this match producing a minimum of 3 goals. Go with the Over. ***Europa Cup TOY***

The first match resulted in a 2-2 draw. Limassol has little to play for. Sparta needs a victory. Sparta has won their last five games across competitions. They have kept clean sheets in the majority of those while scoring 9 goals. Even though they are in third place, Sparta can still win the group and go directly through to the last 16 if they win by three or more goals here. They would also need a Betis draw with Rangers in Spain. That might be asking too much but they will at least secure the victory. ***Europa League GOM***

The first leg, back in September, was a scoreless draw but this will be entirely different. Both clubs now know that only a victory can possibly help them. That will lead to a wide open and exciting match. Goals will be plentiful. Why not? Neither team has anything to lose. Attacking chances will be the order of the day. Both clubs will find the back of the net and it would not surprise me if they both did so more than once. There will be no quit from the team which is trailing. They will throw caution to the wind which can lead to goals on the counter-attack. This match goes Over! ***Champions League TOY***

Paris St Germain needs a victory. Borussia Dortmund is dealing with a lot of injuries. PSG has never lost four consecutive European games on the road. The French club is loading with attacking options. The Germans have conceded at least one goal in four consecutive matches. PSG will find the back of the net on more than one occasion and a depleted Borussia Dortmund squad won't be able to keep up. ***Champions League GOM***

After nearly upsetting the top team, Wolverhampton will relish the opportunity to face the 2nd worst team in the premiership. Burnley has a -17 goal differential through 14 games. They average a goal a match and they concede more than 2. Not a winning formula. Wolves have struggled in recent matches against Burnley but will be the stronger squad today.

Arsenal has conceded only two goals in its past 6 matches. 4 clean sheets and a pair of 1-goal games. Wolverhampton has scored only once in its last 4 matches against Arsenal. Of the last 8 head-to-head matches, only 1 has produced more than 3 goals. Wolverhampton will play conservatively. Arsenal won't come anywhere close to matching the number of goals it had against Lens last game. One or two at most. That's all that will be required as Wolverhampton likely won't score at all. Go with the Under! ***Soccer TOY***

Having set records for an expansion team, it's been a dream season for St. Louis. Sadly for CITY SC fans, it comes to an end Sunday. Kansas City went on the road and delivered a decisive 4-1 victory. Unless St. Louis can win this game, which would force a November 11th tiebreaker, the dream season is over. The players are talking a good game but winning on the road is not going to be easy. Kansas City was the better team in the first game and there's no reason to think that won't be the case once again. Both clubs are far stronger at home which makes having won on the road such a big deal. With a chance to close it out in front of their home fans, St. Louis gets it done! ***mls playoff goy

I backed Brentford against Burnley. That was an easy 3-0 waltz in the park but Chelsea is an entirely different animal. The Bees have previously kicked the Blues while they've been down. Chelsea has turned things around and will settle that score. Prior to 2022, Chelsea had always dominated Brentford. Currently in top form, the Blues will turn back the clock and go back to beating up on the Bees. *EPL GOW

Don't expect many goals in today's early match between West Ham and Aston Villa. The last meeting had a final score of 1-1. The one before that finished with a score of 1-0. Eight of the past 10 meetings produced 3 or fewer goals, six of those finishing with less than 3. Villa has only conceded three goals in its last four matches. AV has allowed one goal or less in six of its last seven matches. WH has allowed less than 2 goals in seven of its past 10 matches. Last match here was scoreless into the 2nd half and finished 1-0. This one also goes Under. *EPL TOW

In its first season in the top level, Luton Town is often outmatched. That will be the case again Saturday. Last year, Nottingham Forest went through the same growing pains that Luton Town is now experiencing. Forest is much stronger because of it. Forest Manager Steve Cooper knows his club needs to take advantage of this very winnable match and that they can't settle for a draw: "We've played some good football and got in some dangerous areas as a team, but we should have made it count more than what we did. That's the challenge for us, but not forgetting what we've built since we got into the Premier League, in terms of our togetherness, our spirit and our attitude to try not to concede goals." Forest scores more goals and allows less. Expect Cooper's club to record a clean sheet and an important victory. *EPL GOM

Low number for an Aston Villa match. In seven league contests, Villa has scored 18 goals and conceded 11. That's an average of more than four per match. The 29 total goals is second most in the entire EPL so far this season. Wolverhampton has allowed 13 and scored 8. That works out to three per match. With both teams finding the back of the net and at least one of them doing so multiple times, they'll get at least that many in this one. *EPL TOW

Having lost back-to-back matches here, Manchester United is going to be extra determined to secure maximum points. Bad news for Brentford. Things would be difficult enough for the Bees if they were healthy. But they've got 6 injured players and none of them are expected to return in time for this match. Thomas Frank acknowledged as much "All of them are long-term-ish. They’re definitely not available for the weekend; that's the most important thing for me." Also, Ivan Toney remains suspended from first team action. He was last season's top scorer for Brentford. Short-handed, the Bees won't be able to withstand the assault which is coming their way. *EPL GOW

Not only does Real Betis have the big advantage of playing this game at home but the Spanish team is simply stronger. Battle tested against La Liga teams, Real Betis is accustomed to tough competition. Sparta Prague has done well thus far and sits on top of the group. Therein lies the problem though, as this is a must win match for Real Betis. The Czech side will see the very best from their hosts and won't be up for the task. Real Betis brings momentum into the match from a big 3-0 victory over Valencia. They'll take maximum points from this one. *Europa League GOM

Celebrations should be in order for the home fans. The Whitecaps will clinch a playoff spot, for the second time in three seasons, with a win tonight and a little help. They also need either Minnesota OR Dallas to draw or lose. FC Dallas may win its game but Minnesota United is a substantial underdog. So, its likely that the 'Caps will get the help that they need in that game. So, they just need to take care of their own business. St. Louis is really good. In fact, its the first expansion team in MLS history to finish with the #1 seed in its conference in its debut season. That's the problem though. St. Louis has already made history and essentially has nothing to play for here. Vancouver will be hungrier and will earn the victory it needs. *MLS GOY

Goals won't come easily in this game. Neither team is scoring many goals this season. Fullham has five goals in six league matches. Ditto for Chelsea. Only lowly Burnley, which has four, has less. Not only does Chelsea, which is off a 1-0 victory, not score many but the Blues are also very hard to score against. They've conceded six times in six matches. Only Manchester City, which has allowed five in seven games, has permitted less. (Arsenal also has allowed six.) So, we've got a Chelsea team which doesn't score but which also doesn't get scored against, facing a Fullham team which doesn't score. Last h2h match had a score of 0-0 and three of the past four have finished with two or fewer goals. This one finishes with two or less again. Go with the Under. *EPL TOM

These clubs are undoubtedly more capable of scoring than the ones we discussed (Fulham and Crystal Palace) yesterday. However, that's reflected in a much higher total. Too high. The last three matches between these teams had final scores of 1-0, 1-0 and 2-1, all in favor of Liverpool. Remember, Liverpool has only conceded four goals in five league matches. Only Manchester City, which has allowed three, has given up less. West Ham has conceded a respectable 1.4 gpg, seven through its five games. With neither team easy to score against, just as the three previous meetings did, this one finishes with three or less. *golden boot

Neither team is likely to score more than 1 goal. Frankly, these punchless offenses will be lucky to even get 1. Palace has scored 1 or less in four of its past five matches. Two of those ended in 1-0 scores. Likewise, Fullham has scored 1 or less in four of its past five matches. Two of those also ended with scores of 1-0. I'm calling for either another 1-0 final or a 1-1 draw.

Burnley’s start to the season has been unkind.  They have surrendered the most goals in the EPL so far this season and have only played 3 games (almost everyone else has played 5).  They are also last in 1st half and 2nd half goals surrendered.  They have had some scheduling bad luck, but still, they are averaging more than 3 goals against per game. 

Notts Forest are unbeaten in their last 4 at home (Brighton, Southampton, Arsenal, Sheffield U.).  They are 8th in goals for in the 1st half and the 2nd half.  2022 signing Awonyi has scored or assisted in each of his last 8 games (9 goals).  They are so direct in their attacking that only West Ham moves the ball upfield at a faster rate. 

All four of the major prediction services predict a Forest win.  Their return to the EPL has been difficult and this one is not going to be any easier as Forest is still flying after their win over Chelsea before the break.  Lay the fraction of a point and play Forest on this one. 

Arsenal has had a successful, although uninspiring start to this EPL campaign.  They were fortunate to win late vs. Man U, struggled to fend off Palace by one goal, tied Fulham at home and beat Notts Forest by only one.  Along the way they have fought their way to the 2nd best goals against record in the EPL.  When you put that stat next to Everton’s league worst goals for record, it is hard to look past that. 

Everton is looking like a threat to be a relegation club after losing to unimpressive Fulham and Wolves, drawing Sheffield and getting clobbered by Villa.  In their last 6 at home, they have lost 5, scoring 2 and giving up 13.  Even though Arsenal has struggled at Everton historically, this looks like the season they overcome that trend.  Although Everton has created many chances in their games so far (their actual goals is less than their expected goals by more than any other club), they are coming up against a defensive powerhouse that has just started to see Rice and Zinchenko round into form.  And at the other end of the park Saka and Oedegaard have been dominant, and Jesus has 8 goals in 9 games vs. Everton.  Arsenal’s goal creating actions/90 is behind only Brighton and Man City (while Everton’s is tied for last).  Things are going to get worse for Everton before they get better.  Lay the goals and play Arsenal on this one.

Chelsea and Bournemouth have both been unimpressive this season and dating back into the Spring of last season.  In their last encounter in May/23, Chelsea won the day 3-1.  Since then, Chelsea spent millions to get back to what they consider their rightful place.  It will start to pay dividends on Sunday. 

Newcomer Caicedo should play and is starting to make his presence known.  Jackson has had so many shots that against a leaky Bournemouth defense they will finally find their mark.  Fernandez leads the EPL in passes into the final 3rd, passes into the penalty area, progressive passes, through balls and shot creating actions.  Only two clubs have more touches in the penalty area than Chelsea.  Bournemouth has the 6th most saves in the EPL and the 4th most goals conceded so they are vulnerable  All of the above is a perfect storm for Chelsea to finally convert on the plethora of shots that they have produced so far.

Bournemouth’s only win at home in their last 6 was against relegated Leeds, to go with 4 losses and they are 0-2-6 in their last 8 overall in EPL play. 

Chelsea’s record isn’t a whole lot better, but this should be the beginning of a turnaround for the new look Chelsea squad as the pressure is at its peak for them to succeed.  Take Chelsea on this one.

Brighton is part of the new wave and have only lost one game so far (to another up-and-coming club, West Ham).  They have done it with attacking football.  ManU is always expected to do well, especially at home.  So far they have lost two and only beat minnows, Fulham and Wolves by one goal each. 

Usually ManU has a stout defense at home but will be missing Shaw on the back line and Varane is questionable.  But ManU is 6th in the EPL in saves so lots of shots are getting through.  ManU is still without Mount and now will also be missing Antony as well for their attack which was already middle of the pack in shots on target, shot creation and attacking penalty area touches.  Sancho has been out of favor as well but may have worked his way back for this game.

Brighton is in sharp contrast to this as they lead the EPL in goals for, shots on target, shot creation and attacking penalty area touches.  Brighton is one of the most creative attacking sides in the EPL and they will have a chance to exploit a hurting and vulnerable ManU defence.

Add to this that Brighton has won 3 and tied one of their last 4 head-to-head matches and you have a clincher for choosing Brighton to take the points offered and win the game. 

Palace is 2-2-2 away in their last 6 and Aston Villa is 6-0-0 in their last 6 at home.  In those 6 wins, Villa has outscored their opposition 14-2.  Palace has 6 goals for and 6 goals against in their last 6 away.  That was with Zaha. Now he is gone and Palace is a work in progress against better clubs when it comes to breaking them down.

This season, Palace’s wins have come against low table players Sheffield United and Wolves and against Champions League Plymouth Argyle.  Villa has only lost to Newcastle and Liverpool.  Their wins have been decisive and with lots of goals (an average of 2.66 goals per game).

Three of the major prediction services choose Villa for this one (one of them by two goals).  The best play here is Villa by far.

This is a very different Wolves team than the one that took down Liverpool in Feb/23. Gone are Nunes, Jimenez, Traore, Coady, Neves, Moutinho and Costa.  Cunha is the lone goal scorer among the newcomers.  This season Liverpool is 3-0-1 with 9 goals for and 3 against while Wolves are 1-3-0 with 4 goals for and 8 against.  Wolves are leaky at the back and Liverpool is one of the best attacking clubs in the world. 

Liverpool may be missing 2 or 3 of their first team backline so they could give up a goal but will be too much for Wolves to handle when they attack.  Liverpool dominated the strong attacking Villa with a limited back line before the break so they shouldn’t be troubled with the Wolves’ attack this week. Lay the goals and take Liverpool.

Villa lost to Newcastle 5-1 to start their season.  Liverpool just beat Newcastle with 10 men.  That alone is pretty convincing stuff.  Add to it that the Reds are 8-1-1 in their last 10 vs. Villa, are unbeaten in their last 13 at home and unbeaten in their last 14 in the EPL and you have the makings of a tough outing at Anfield for Villa. Two of four of the top predictors pick Liverpool in this one while the other two call for a high scoring draw. 

The problem is, Villa have played Liverpool tough at Anfield.  Only ManU and Chelsea have more wins at Anfield.  Watkins has 5 goals vs. Liverpool which is tied for his highest tally against an EPL club.  Villa has averaged 3 goals/game in their last 6.  Liverpool has endured extended periods of serious pressure in all of their EPL matches this season.  Villa has the firepower to take advantage of that especially with van Dijk and Konate out and Alexander-Arnold’s vulnerabilities revealed by being moved to midfield for England due to defensive deficiencies.  Liverpool is vulnerable.  Take the goals on offer for Villa and you win if the draw happens and are covered if Liverpool sneaks out a one goal miracle again.   

Brentford and Bournemouth are heading in different directions these days.  It’s surprising that the sportsbooks still offer such good value for you to make use of.  In their last 5 head-to-head Brentford holds a 4-1-1 advantage.  In their last 19 at home Brentford is 10-2-7.  Bournemouth has no wins in their first three to start this season, is an abysmal 0-6-1 in their last 7 and their only 2 wins in their last 10 EPL games were against now relegated clubs. 

Unsurprisingly 4 of the top predictors pick Brentford to win handily.  Bournemouth’s shortcomings mostly stem from backline problems that make them too easy to break down.  This has led to an average of almost 2 goals against in their last 10 EPL games.  When you add that to there being only 4 EPL clubs with worse stats comparing actual goals to the X-goals model you have a recipe for failure.  It’s not surprising that they have the 2nd worst goals against record in the EPL this season.  They also have the 3rd worst goals created actions/90 min in the EPL so there isn’t a lot out there for possible improved goal production.  This should be a very good play to take Brentford on the money line for this one.

Luton Town finally gets a home game in the EPL after a long wait and a chance to earn their first points in their return to the Premiership.  They finally won (against a League 2 club in a nailbiter) but are coming off only 2 days of rest and so some might be suffering the effects.  Unfortunately, they are against the red-hot Hammers who soundly beat the two teams Luton lost to (Brighton and Chelsea).  Luton is a little light on the backline as they have 3 out to injury so they may be hard-pressed to deal with West Ham’s strong counter-attacking form.

West Ham has attackers Bowen and Ward-Prowse in form and has added Kudus who is fresh off a hat-trick in his last game with Ajax.  West Ham has scored the 3rd most goals in the EPL, while Luton town have conceded the most goals (in only two matches).  The Hammers Xgoal- diff/90 is +0.21 while Luton’s is -2.16.  This all adds up to a bleak outlook for the hometown Luton and all the reasons lined up to lay the goals and take West Ham.

Burnley has had a tough start to their most recent EPL promotion.  They dominated the Championship last season and were rewarded with an opening match against treble winners Man City.  It didn’t go well.  Then their week 2 match was cancelled because Luton’s pitch wasn’t ready so they had a two week lay-off.  They also lost starting winger Zaroury to a red card so will be without him for 3 weeks and as well, Churlinov and Obafemi are injured.  In the interim they signed three new players who probably won’t start this week.  Now they come up against Villa who have scored 9 goals in their last two games including 3 by the red hot Watkins in their most recent outing. 

Villa are 4-1-1 in their last 6 while Burnley are 2-3-1 in their last 6 .  Villa holds a 2-1 edge in their last 3 at Burnley. 

The Xgoal diff/90 is +0.35 for Villa and -1.6 for Burnley.  Add to this that 3 out of 4 expert predictions pick Villa as the most likely to win, as do the sportsbooks and you have a pretty compelling case to go with Villa on Sunday in this matchup.

In their last 5 games Brentford has managed 13 of a possible 15 points.  They have been on fire to start this season as well with the second most goals from the first two weeks and an Xgoal total of 5.9.  Palace has an Xgoal total of 2.9.  For Palace this is a continuation of last season where only two of the relegation sisters scored less than them.  And that was with the now departed Zaha.  Olise was supposed to help remedy this, but he is still injured.  Palace is really up against it as Brentford has an Xgoals against so far of 1.7.  Brentford can score and defend.  Brentford also had the most big chances missed this season with 5 so a regression to the mean should result in even more goals. Palace not only can’t score, they aren’t generating big chances, as they have only missed 2 and have only scored once so far.  Last week when Arsenal was reduced to 10 men, Palace still couldn’t generate much.  Brentford also has the 2nd most shots on target while Palace has the 12th most.  Take Brentford for the win on this one.  

Chelsea and Luton Town have both been playing high event soccer as of late.  Chelsea has given up the first goal in their last 6 EPL matches.  But they do have 3.54 Xgoals so far and Jackson alone has 1.14.  Big signing Caicedo will get his first start alongside the other big signing Mac Allister (his former teammate) and both will benefit from playing with Sterling who has been a real bright spot for Chelsea.  They lead the league in big chances missed so the tide will have to turn here.

Brighton surrendered 4 goals in their first game and also had their woodwork hit 3 times, so they give up chances galore.  They play a very direct game and should also get success against a very fragile backline that will be missing star James for this one.

Chelsea’s Xgoals/90 is 1.96 while Luton’s is 1.46 which gives a total over 3.  Most predictions have Chelsea scoring 3 so Luton only needs to find the net once to get a high total in this one.  Go for the over and enjoy all the high event soccer.

Arsenal and Palace both came out of game week 1 with all 3 points.  Palace only managed 1 goal against a very weak Sheffield side.  They will be hard pressed to produce anything against a superior defence like Arsenal has.  Arsenal had 10 clean sheets away last season and 39 points away which was the best in the EPL.  Arsenal got up by 2 in the first half against Nottingham Forest and then coasted which made things a bit nervy at the end.  Forest is superior to Sheffield and Arsenal is superior to Palace by extension.

With the addition of Rice in midfield and the maturation of a world class talent like Saka, Palace will have their hands full.

Arsenal also feasted on all the London Derbys last season as they won 10 of 12 including both wins against Palace.  They have won 3 of their last 5 against Palace including 2 wins at Palace. 

Palace has trouble scoring which is shown by the fact they only scored 40 times last season which is less than two of the relegation sisters scored(Leeds and Leicester).  And they did that with Zaha (by far their leading scorer) who has since moved on.  Lay the goal and go with Arsenal on this one. 

Analysis    These two teams lost in the first game week.  Villa was dismantled by Newcastle and Fulham won with a clean sheet against Everton.  The similarities end there as Villa has dominated Everton over the last while and ended last season strongly.  In their last 7 at home Villa is 7-0 and has only conceded 2 goals.  Everton has trouble scoring as last season they only managed 34 goals in 38 games. 

Villa is 6-0-2 in their last 8 vs. Everton and 4-0 in their last 4 home matches vs. Everton.  In their last 6 head to head Villa has outscored Everton 12-2. 

Both managers have problems with availability of starters but this should not reduce Villa’s superiority.  Pick Villa on this one. 

Two clubs who gained promotion in the 2020’s will face off in one version of the West London Derby Friday.  Brentford is at Fulham as both clubs are eager to get their second straight result.  Brentford hung in against one of the top sides in the Premiership, Tottenham, for a 2-2 draw.  Fulham won 1-0 vs Everton in a game they were seriously outclassed in.  It is a tough call to pick a winner as both lost at home to the other, 3-2, over the past season. 

What is clear though is both clubs are involved in matches with a generous number of goals.  In their last 5 at home Fulham is 4-1 on games over the 2.5 total, while in their last 4 away, Brentford is 3-1 for the over 2.5 total.  Head-to-head these two clubs are 4-0 for the over 2.5.  Yes, there is a clear trend here and it is clear what you should do. 

This is the first of what should prove to be many relegation battles this season.  Nottingham avoided relegation last year with a strong finish as they improved as the season went on.  With almost a completely new squad to start last season it took them awhile to gel under manager Cooper but after only a few key additions this summer they looked threatening at times vs. Arsenal last week.  The continuity form last year should be helpful.  The addition of American GK Turner was a shrewd move and is starting to pay dividends already as he made 7 saves vs a tough opponent.  Forest lost only 5 of 19 at home last year and won their last three at home including victories over Arsenal and Brighton. 

Sheffield finished 2nd in the Championship to Burnley a full 10 points back.  They lost leading scorer Ndiage over the summer and haven’t replaced him adequately.  The 1-0 loss to Palace flattered them as they were never threatening.  They have a long list of injuries which highlights their need for more quality additions to the squad.  This should be a struggle in the early season for Sheffield which will play well for Forest at home.  Take Forest all they way. 

It’s a new world in the EPL this season with Chelsea and Liverpool not making the Champions League and Manchester United moving back into the EPL top 4.  Last season United had the lowest goals against record in the EPL at home and only lost one game at Old Trafford.  Rashford was second in goals to the incomparable Haaland and will look to continue against a Wolves team that is in disarray. 

The Wolves only made two additions but lost Jimenez, Costa, Neves, Traore and Moutinho.  Those holes have not been filled.  Their manager from last year cleaned out his office 4 days ago and new skipper O’Neil has had to sort out his new squad in short order.  In their last 6 matches the Wolves surrendered 14 goals and only scored 4.  Against a stingy United defence this will not improve. The Wolves also failed to win any of their final 8 road games.  All in all, you should lay the goals and go with United on this one.   

Chelsea and Liverpool both disappointed last season.  But they ended their seasons in much different fashions.  Chelsea was humiliated in the last stretch with one win in their L 11 while Liverpool found their footing and were undefeated in their final 11.  The Reds paid for not rejuvenating their midfield in the first half of last season but have made amends this year with the departures of Henderson and Fabinho and the addition of World Cup champion Mac Allister and Szoboszlai.  There were goals galore at both ends of the pitch for the Reds in preseason so expect a dynamic side that will power past the goalless draws the last 4 times these squads met. 

Newcomers Fofana and Nkunku are out for Chelsea but new manager Pochettino had the Blues winning in preseason. 

But Liverpool has too much firepower and too much recent success for Chelsea to turn things around for this one.  The Reds also have Klopp who will sort out how to make use of his new additions quickly.  The Blues should be better but won’t be able to pull off the challenge before them in their opener.  Take the Reds in this one.

Luton Town is away to Brighton in their first ever game in the Premiership.  They are in tough as Brighton has proven to be an offensive force at home with a 6-0 result over Wolves, a 3-0 result over Liverpool and a 4-0 domination of Chelsea at Amex Stadium in Brighton.  Brighton just has too much attacking power.  Even with the loss of Mac Alllilster and pending loss of Caicedo, their pickups of Milner, Dahoud and Pedro is going to keep coach De Zerbi awash in attacking possibilities.  Returnees Estupinan on the back line, Gross in the middle of the park and Welbeck up front should help stabilize recent arrivals.

Luton will not have centre backs Burke and Osho available as well as midfielders Clark and Potts.  This should open space for Brighton’s attacking style.  It should be noted that Brighton only lost 5 at home all last year and only 1 vs teams in the bottom of the table.  Luton finished more than 10 points behind Championship leader Burnley and then only advanced after PKs in the qualifying game.  Chances are they will be in the bottom half of the table. 

Luton is likely to work to be difficult to break down but Brighton is just too strong attacking.  Lay the points and take Brighton. 

Treble winner Man City visits newly promoted Championship winner Burnley for the EPL opener.  Their last meeting in the FA Cup quarterfinals in March was a humbling return for Burnley manager and longtime Man City star Kompany as they were dominated 6-0.  Burnley still has no answer on the back end for Haaland and Alvarez, who scored 3 and 2 times each in that game and are likely starters for this rematch.  City used a rotation squad for that game and might for this fixture as well, as the Super Cup match against Sevilla is on the 16th.  That should not prevent Guardiola’s side from continuing their dominant run of form against the Clarets.  Many City is 15-1-0 in their last 16 against Burnley.  In their last 11 against Burnley Man City has scored five or more goals five times, outscoring them 40-1 over that span.  Burnley’s last goal against City was in Dec. 2019.

Even with some solid additions that should prevent relegation, Burnley doesn’t match up well against City.  Last season’s leading scorer Tella is back at Southhampton and his replacement Amdouni may take a while to gel with his new squad.

Kovacic should ably replace Gundogan in the City midfield and Ake and De Bruyne should be available for selection.

Laying the goals and going with City is a solid choice to get you into the new season on the right foot (pun intended).

Olympic champion Canada has a target on its back and is struggling with conflict within their soccer federation at home.  But this team with some legendary veterans and outstanding rising stars has fared well in the lead up to this.  Coach Priestman commitment to defense,  has world class defenders and a goalkeeper that can earn clean sheets but also has ageless striker and all-time international goal scoring leader Sinclair.  They are capable of shutting down anyone.   They also have a rising star in midfielder Awujo who is capable of controlling the flow of play.   They beat Nigeria 2-0 in a friendly and then tied them using most of their bench.  They also beat Australia in two friendlies in Australia.  In the lead up they won their group in CONCACAF and then lost to world number one ranked USA in the final.  If they can overcome the turmoil, they should be the team to beat in this group.

Nigeria has had their own turmoil, as they lost two games in the Africa Cup (which used to be something they dominated) and have had battles with their own federation over unpaid salaries and political selection pressures on the coach.  They have a star striker in Oshoala who is fresh off a Champions League win with Barcelona.  Being ranked 40th in the FIFA is no match for 7th ranked Canada and they are widely predicted to exit the group stage.

Host New Zealand has qualified for the last 4 World Cups.  They haven’t advanced out of the group stage or even scored a goal.  But this World Cup will be different right?  Nope.  After Klinkova was appointed coach they won only one of their first 14 and were outscored 35-5.   As host , not having to qualify has led them to a most recent record of friendlies of 1-7-1.  They have had five significant injuries in the past year but all have recently returned.  It’s doubtful that they have returned to top form.  They have had the worst sustained stretch of any team in the field.

Norway on the other hand has been a traditional powerhouse in women’s football.  Recently they were humbled though by England 8-0 in the Euros.  Norway legend Riise took over the reigns as coach and has transformed their approach with a defensively stable 4-3-3 or 5-4-1.  This led to beating the finalist from the last World Cup, Netherlands 2-0 in November and drawing Sweden and France earlier this year.  They are the Group A favorite and with superstar Hegerberg and rising star Hansen should dominate the struggling New Zealand side even though they are the hosts.  Lay the points and take the Norwegian side.

It is Messi vs possibly his heir apparent in Mbape facing each other in the World Cup final.  France scored a pair against a tough Maroc side, but the Atlas Lions, much less of an offensive powerhouse than Argentina,  had their chances.  Argentina ran up 3 goals against Craotia.  Both teams have superlative offenses and real star power, but have conceded goals in the tournament.  France has scored 13 and allowed 5, with Argentina conceding 5 and scoring 12.

One has the feeling that Messi will be all-out in likely his last chance for a world cup victory, with France just as determined to repeat as champions.  This will be another very close offense driven game.  It is very likely that we sill see goals from both sides, possibly multiples.  Frances was victorious in the 2018 World Cup match, winning 4-3.  It is not unlikely that we will see something similar on Sunday.

Take Argentina and France to go over.

France and Morocco meet in an absolutely pan-global classic underdog/favorite matchup. France's defense has not been their forte ,and has given up a goal in every match so far in the World Cup.  They haven't looked particularly focused on the back end, and have given up too many free kicks on careless play.  Morocco has yet to yield a goal in the tournament, other than an own-goal vs Canada, although Portugal should have scored, with far too many shots off the target.  Morocco has has proven to be composed, unified and quite unflappable when defending to date and has a very strong net-minder in Bounou.  The Atlas Lions have also been potent on the counterattack and have shown excellent finish to date.  That said, France is formidable on offense with 11 goals in the tournament to date, and at least a trio of elite potential goalscorers in Mbappe, Griezmann and Giroux.

I 'm betting on both teams connecting for goals; France with likely more than 1.  Morocco might be content to play for a draw and penalty shots, but France, after Bono's heroics in net, will not want to leave this game to chance.

Morocco, the underdog, will be under tremendous pressure,with home country, and the Pan-Arab and african worlds passionately behind them.  They have been poised to date, but this level of playl is all new to them.  France, winner of the last world Cup, has pressure of their own but is on familiar ground.  I am on the total on Wednesday. I am not sure of a winner, but the total will go over.

Portugal, without Ronaldo, played with remarkable skill and flair, and absolutely crushed the Swiss in the round of 16.  They now face Morocco, the upstart of the tournament, who despatched Belgium 2-nil, then held off Spain to win on penalty kicks.  Looking at the possession times, it would be easy to think that Morocco's victory was pure luck, but that wasn't the case.  Spain did control the ball but could not penetrate a very tough Moroccan defense, and the Atlas Lions had solid opportunities to score on the counterattack.  This is a very well-coached and disciplined North African squad who have now captured the hearts of Africa and the Arab world. They have allowed just one goal to date in the tournament; they put the ball in their own net vs Canada.  They have an excellent goaltender in Bounou, and have shown that they can attack and finish in their own right.

It is hard to imagine Portugal struggling against the 22nd ranked club after their superlative showing against Switzerland, but do not underestimate the Moroccan side.  Look for the Lions to play a controlled defensive game, and watch for their counterstrikes.  I'm wagering on Morocco at +1.

Brazil's offense dominated vs South Korea, running up a 4-0 lead, before coasting to the win.  Not so Croatia, whoa along with two scoreless draws, have almost been forced into the attack with two come-from-behind situations vs Japan and Croatia.  Japan  showed defensive lapses at times in the tournament; Croatia will not get the same opportunities against a tough Brazilian defense.  Brazil will not want to allow this game to go to penalty kicks as Croatian net minder Livakovic was very sharp in that siuation.

Neymar appears healthy, and the entire team was loose and superbly effective against a badly out-matched Korean squad.  Brazil has had good success vs Croatia in the past, and is rightly a very large favorite. Croatia is an aging squad; Modric, now 37 was subbed against Japan, before extra time. Take Brazil on the point spread at -1 1/4.

Japan faces a very experienced Croatian side, who other than a dominant come-from -behind 4-1 drubbing of Canada, have been rather stolid so far, with a pair of nil-nil draws.  In spite of their loss to Costa Rica, Japan has impressed with a full throttle 4 goal qualifying round including victories over Spain and Germany.  The Samurii Blue are not timid, and have counterattacked and finished against two top teams.  I like their chances to score again on Monday, forcing Croatia into opening up on offense.  Japan is inexperienced, young, but very fast and will not be cowed, and will take it to the older Croatian side.  Look for the total to go over 2, with both sides scoring.  Third goal will decide it.

Canada was touted by some as something of a sleeper at the World Cup, but that hasn’t proven to be the case. They looked good vs an aging Belgium team, but were taken apart in the game vs Croatia. While managing to show some offense, they have struggled in the backfield with chaotic defending and less than exceptional goal tending. Morocco had stellar goal tending in their draw vs Croatia, and will likely have Bounou back vs. Canada. They were full measure for their 2-0 win against Belgium even with their back-up keeper in net, allowing Belgium very few opportunities on attack. Morocco is one of just two teams yet to concede a goal in this World Cup. With such a rare and excellent opportunity for Morocco to advance, they will not want to leave anything to chance. Look for an all-out push from the Moroccan team, handing, Canada its third straight loss.

The Dutch took their time about it, but persevered to beat Senegal 2-0. Ecuador produced a similar result against an easier team in Quatar.  Equador could be a bit of a sleeper  in the group.  They were 4th in South America and drew 1-1 against both Argentina and Brazil in the qualifying round. Equador has some fine young talent on the team, but got a pair of goals from 33 year old Valencia in Game One.The young Van Gaal coached Netherlands team, while inexperienced is rich in talent.  Their top scoring threat, Memphis Depay played just 30 minutes but is expected to get more playing time in Game 2.

By rights, Equator ought to be an easier match-up than Senegal, but those draws against top South American squads, and the number of goals that they scored in qualifying games should make the Dutch take note.  I expect at least 1 goal at least from each squad, as both have significant offenses and neither the Dutch nor the Equadorians are gifted in goal keepers.  Take the over, in this case, over 2.25.

No 0-0 draws in this match! Both Germany and Japan went home with major disappointment after the last World Cup.  It is more accurate to say that the Germans, normally a world power, were humiliated, resulting in  a sea change in team makeup.  Both Germany and Japan have young and potent squads this year, and both play an all-out attacking game. 

Japan is an underdog, but is  a very well coached, organized, and driven squad.  They waltzed through their preliminary matches, and with many team members playing at a club level in Germany, will be familiar with and not intimidated by the German style.  The Germans also dominated their matches leading up to the Cup, but are very much offense focused, and not unknown to give up goals.  This could be a very fast paced and exciting game with, I think, a higher than average total.  Play on the over. 9*!

Wolves have scored just 8 goals in 14 Premier League matches this season. That’s not just the fewest of any EPL side, it’s downright putrid.

Now they are set to face top of the table Arsenal, who have conceded all of 11 times this season. That’s tied for the best defensive record in the league. 

Wolves have been a bit stingy themselves on the back end going back to last season and that should serve them well in this fixture. It also helps that Arsenal’s road xG is way down from what they average at Emirates Stadium.

My prediction here is that Arsenal gets 1, maybe 2 goals at most. Wolves are likely not to score at all and thus Under 2.5 is a solid play in the final match on Saturday’s EPL slate. 

This is Nottingham Forest’s first season back in the Premier League since 1998-99 and, not surprisingly, they have struggled. Currently in last place, Forest is the only team without double digit points and their -20 goal differential is also a league worst.

But before the 5-0 thrashing they took from Arsenal last week, Forest had been a pretty decent defensive side. They’d held four straight opponents to 1 or 0 goals including a shock clean sheet win over Liverpool. 

Now the attack is poor. You’d have to go all the way back to September to find the last time Nottingham Forest scored more than one goal in a match. They scored only two goals over the course of six October fixtures. 

Forest has been tougher at home, which is where they’ve earned seven of their nine points this season. Brentford will be without star striker Ivan Toney. It’s bad enough that the Bees have scored only one goal in their previous three matches, that coming in last week’s 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton. Over the last seven matches, they have scored a total of just four goals. 

Defensively, Brentford should be fine here. They’ve been a little unlucky when it comes to conceding on the road this year. But when they traveled to take on another promoted side, AFC Bournemouth, they allowed just seven shots and zero goals. 10*

Bayern Munich has already clinched Group C by virtue of winning all five of its Champions League matches thus far. Inter Milan will be joining the German giants in the Round of 16 as they are guaranteed to finish second in the group by virtue of a win and a draw against Barcelona. 

So it’s basically just “pride” on the line in this final Group C fixture. I expect a cautious, perhaps even a downright conservative approach from both sides Tuesday. There’s just no incentive to “let loose” for either Bayer or Inter here, especially with big matches looming this weekend (in the respective domestic leagues) and various players getting ready for the World Cup as well. 

Bayern will be without Thomas Muller, Manuel Neuer, Leroy Sané and Lucas Hernandez. That’s a lot of missing firepower.

Inter, who has won four straight in all competitions, has a pretty match in Serie A against Juventus this weekend. So there’s no reason for them to push it either. But expect goalkeeper Samir Handanovic to continue his fine form. Three of those four straight Inter victories have been clean sheets. 

Bayern has conceded only twice in its five CL matches. The first one with Inter was a 2-0 final. I can’t see this one being any more high-scoring. Play the Under. 9*

For the first time in quite a while, Arsenal will take the pitch not on top of the Premier League table. Manchester City moved one point ahead with a 1-0 win over Leicester City Saturday morning, but the Gunners now have their opportunity to move right back into first. They should as they are heavy favorites against Nottingham Forest, one of the three recently promoted sides for this season.

It’s actually top vs. bottom in this fixture. Forest will enter Sunday potentially all alone in last place, depending on how Wolves and Leeds fare Saturday. Regardless, we know Forest will be in the relegation zone and are likely to remain there after this match has concluded. Arsenal has not lost to a promoted side here at Emirates Stadium since 2010. 

The money line on Arsenal is unplayable at this price, however the total is offering value. It would surprise me to see the Gunners concede a goal here. They are tied for the second fewest goals allowed in the Premier League with just 11 while Forest has the second fewest goals scored this season with only 8. 

But Forest has stepped it up defensively of late, giving up just two goals in the last four matches and only one of them coming during open play. They posted a clean sheet last week against Liverpool (won 1-0!) 

Meanwhile, Arsenal has now failed to score more than one goal in five straight matches after going down 2-0 to PSV in the Europa League on Thursday. All signs points to this being a low-scoring match. Play the Under. 10*