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NFLX Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
08-23-14	Minnesota Vikings +3.5 v. Kansas City Chiefs	Top	30-12	Win	100	109 h 30 m	Show
The Vikings have looked great while winning both their first two games of the pre-season, and they will be in Kansas City to take on the Chiefs in Week 3. Minnesota looks good as an underdog getting points in this spot. Here are my keys to the game: 1: Quarterbacks - Teddy Bridgewater and Matt Cassel combined to throw for 322 yards and three TDs on 28-of-32 passing in the win over Arizona last week. This looks like it's heating up to be the most competitive quarterback competition of the pre-season. 2: Chiefs Defense - Defense wasn't a strong point for Kansas City last year, and so far they've allowed an average of 33 points while going 1-1 in the first two weeks. 3: X-Factor - The Vikings have covered the spread in five of their last six overall, while the Chiefs are 0-5 ATS in their last five home games. Selection: This is a play on the Minnesota Vikings (8*)
08-22-14	Chicago Bears v. Seattle Seahawks -7	Top	6-34	Win	100	90 h 56 m	Show
The Seahawks host the Bears in Week 3 of the pre-season, and the defending Super Bowl champs are favored by a touchdown. That seems more than fair after seeing them run up the score in a 41-14 thrashing of the Chargers last week. Here are my keys to the game: 1: Seattle Quarterbacks - The Seahawks don't just have a solid backup for Russell Wilson, they also have probably the best third string quarterback in the NFL in Terrelle Pryor, who has experience starting for Oakland. 2: Home Cookin' - Sure it's just the pre-season, but try telling that to the 13th man. Home field is a big deal for Seattle, who have won 19 of their last 20 home games (pre-season & regular combined). 3: X-Factor - The Seahawks ran for 243 yards and five TDs last week. Selection: This is a play on the Seattle Seahawks (8*)
08-22-14	NY Giants v. NY Jets	Top	35-24	Loss	-105	87 h 27 m	Show
The Jets will take on the Giants in Week 3, and both these teams are undefeated so far. That might be a little misleading though, as the Giants were trailing the Colts 26-0 in the fourth quarter last week, and a comedy of errors resulted in 27 unanswered points in just over 10 minutes. Here are my keys to the game: 1: Jets Defense - The Jets defense was a strength last year, especially against the run. They ranked 3rd in the NFL allowing opponents just 88 yards rushing per game. They have held the opposition to just 27 total points in two weeks of pre-season action. 2: Mike Vick - There is no denying that Mike Vick can still wreak havoc on opposing defenses, and he's pushing hard to beat out Geno Smith as the starter. 3: X-Factor - Eli Manning completed just 1-of-7 pass attempts for just six yards last week. Selection: This is a play on the New York Jets (8*)
08-22-14	Jacksonville Jaguars v. Detroit Lions -3	Top	12-13	Loss	-120	85 h 0 m	Show
The Jacksonville Jaguars are in Detroit to play the Lions in Week 3 of the pre-season, and we should see the starters get plenty of time in this game. That might not bode well for the visitors, who have had a stranglehold on the NFL cellar the last few seasons. Here are my keys to the game: 1: Lions Offense - It's not surprising to see the Lions move the ball when Matthew Stafford is in a quarterback, but backups Kellen Moore and Dan Orlovsky have both looked solid so far in the pre-season. The trio combined to complete 22-of-30 attempts for 279 yards and a pair of TDs last week. 2: Blake Bortles - The rookie has impressed in his first two pre-season games, but he'll face a legitimate starting NFL defense for the first time in Detroit. 3: X-Factor - Home teams are 25-8 in the pre-season so far, and the Lions are only asked to win by a field goal. Selection: This is a play on the Detroit Lions (8*)
08-21-14	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Philadelphia Eagles -175	Top	21-31	Win	100	8 h 36 m	Show
The Phillies host the Eagles Thursday night, and Philly is still looking for it's first victory of the pre-season. The Steelers are coming off a home win over Buffalo, but have not impressed overall, losing to the Giants in Week 1. I like the home team to get the job done here tonight. Here are my keys to the game: 1: Eagles Offense - Philly hasn't had any trouble scoring so far, totaling 63 points after two weeks of pre-season play. The Eagles led the league in rushing last year, and that might not bode well for the Steelers who have conceded over 300 yards on the ground in the first two weeks of the pre-season. 2: Home Cookin' - This will be Philly's first game on home turf, and they'll be going all out for a win here in front of their home crowd. 3: X-Factor - The status of Pittsburgh's running back duo of Le'Veon Bell and LeGarrett Blount is in question, as both players will face charges of drug possession. Selection: This is a play on the Philadelphia Eagles (5*)
08-18-14	Cleveland Browns v. Washington Redskins -1	Top	23-24	Push	0	40 h 18 m	Show
All eyes will be on the nation's capital on Monday night, with the Redskins hosting the Browns in the second week of the NFL pre-season. The event is hyped as Johnny Football versus RGIII, but the reality is that Brian Hoyer and Kirk Cousins might have a bigger say in who wins this one. I think Cousins could put up some big numbers on the Cleveland backups. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Quarterbacks - I'll give the edge to Washington, because I think Kirk Cousins might be the best quarterback on the field tonight. That's right, better than RGIII and Johnny Football, but most importantly, better than Brian Hoyer. Cousins completed 9-of-13 attempts for 103 yards and a TD in Week 1, so don't be surprised to see him have a big game versus Cleveland. 2. Skins Running Game - Washington had an effective running game last season, and they looked good in Week 1 versus the Patriots. Keep an eye on Lache Seastrunk, who ran for 63 yards on 12 carries against New England. 3. X-Factor - The Redskins offense looked pretty good in Week 1 without DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, but their two top targets are expected to play tonight. Selection: This is a play on the Washington Redskins (10*)
08-16-14	Atlanta Falcons v. Houston Texans -2.5	Top	7-32	Win	100	17 h 33 m	Show
The Texans are hoping to put a disastrous 2013 season behind them, but they didn't get a off to a great start in Week 1, getting blown out in Arizona. I expect Houston to look like a different team at home tonight, as they host Atlanta. Here are my keys to the game: 1: Texans Defense - Despite their struggles last season, they still ranked among the best in the NFL defending the pass. That should bode well against a pass happy Falcons teams. 2. Texans Pass Rush - With Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt, the Texans should be able to make life miserable for the visiting quarterbacks. 3. X-Factor - First year head coach Bill O'Brien will be under pressure to give the home crowd something to cheer about, so expect the starters to see more action than they saw in Week 1. Selection: This is a play on the Houston Texans (8*)
08-16-14	NY Giants v. Indianapolis Colts -1	Top	27-26	Loss	-125	121 h 15 m	Show
The Indianapolis Colts have won three of their four previous home games during the Andrew Luck era, and they host the New York Giants tonight. This will be the Giants third game of this pre-season, but their first on the road. I think the smart money will be on the home team. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Chuck Pagano - History tells us that we should see plenty of the Colts starters in the second week of the pre-season. Last year's Week 2 match-up was against these very same Giants, and Luck threw for 107 yards an a pair of TDs in a 20-12 victory. 2. Quarterback Depth - In Matt Hasselbeck, the Colts have a backup that not only has experience as a starter, but a proven winner that went all the way to the Super Bowl with Seattle. 3. X-Factor - The Colts have won four straight home games, and seven of their last nine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Selection: This is a play on the Indianapolis Colts (10*)
08-15-14	Detroit Lions v. Oakland Raiders -135	Top	26-27	Win	100	18 h 17 m	Show
The Lions edged out Cleveland in the Great Lakes Classic last week by a score of 13-12. They will play the Raiders in Oakland in their second pre-season game tonight, and I', expecting this to be tough game for the visitors. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Detroit's Quarterbacks - Dan Orlovsky got the bulk of the snaps in the Lions first game, and he failed to impress. He connected on just 12-of-23 passes for 89 yards. Jim Caldwell seems to favor Orlovsky as the backup over Kellen Moore, despite the fact that Moore completed 85% of his passes for 121 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. 2. Home Cookin' - Pre-season wins don't mean a lot to most NFL franchises, but the Oakland Raiders could really use a positive result in front of the home fans, if they have any hope of creating any excitement heading into this season. 3. X-Factor - Matt Schuab was not much of a factor in the Raiders Week 1 loss, but we should expect to see a lot more of the former Texans starter tonight. There is some reason for optimism according to Oakland media: "CSN Bay Area, Schaub played somewhat better than the numbers indicate, as TE Mychal Rivera dropped a couple of potential first-down passes, and Andre Holmes had a reception called back due to an offensive penalty." Selection: This is a play on the Oakland Raiders (8*)
08-14-14	Jacksonville Jaguars v. Chicago Bears -4	Top	19-20	Loss	-110	74 h 14 m	Show
The Jaguars can take a lot of positives away from their first pre-season game, a 16-10 win at home over Tampa. I think they will find themselves over-matched here in Chicago on Thursday night though, as the Bears offense appears to be firing on all cylinders. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Quarterbacks - Rookie Blake Bortles impressed in his debut, completing 7-of-11 attempts for 117 yards. His numbers were pretty pedestrian in comparison to that of Chicago's quarterbacks though, who between the (top) three of them threw four TD passes. Jimmy Claussen upstaged the rest, by throwing for 150 yards and a pair of TDs, while Culter and Jesse Palmer each had TD scoring drives. 2. Home Cookin' - There isn't a lot of reason to get up for a pre-season game, but at least the Bears will have the Chicago faithful cheering them on. 3. X-Factor - The Bears are giving up just a few points at home, and the favorite has covered in four straight previous meetings in this series. Selection: This is a play on the Chicago Bears (8*)
08-09-14	Cleveland Browns +1 v. Detroit Lions	Top	12-13	Push	0	17 h 11 m	Show
All eyes will be on the Motor City tonight, as we expect Johnny Football to make his debut for the Browns as they take on the Lions. The home team is a small favorite, but I'm expecting to see the visitors prevail. Here are my keys to the game: 1. History - It's never easy to guess what NFL head coaches are going to do in the pre-season, how much time they will give the starters, and whether or not they will make a reasonable attempt to win. If history is any indication, winning isn't a priority for Lions coach Jim Caldwell, who is 2-10 lifetime in pre-season games. 2. Quarterbacks - The starting job belongs to Brian Hoyer, but that doesn't mean Johnny Manziel won't have an opportunity to steal the #1 spot. He'll get his first chance to strut his stuff tonight, and he'll have to do something special if he wants to dethrone Hoyer. X-Factor - Look for rookie running back Terrence West to challenge Ben Tate for the starters role. Selection: This is a play on the Cleveland Browns (10*)
08-08-14	Oakland Raiders v. Minnesota Vikings -150	Top	6-10	Win	100	16 h 40 m	Show
There is a lot of excitement surrounding the Minnesota Vikings heading into this season. and fans have high hopes for rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The Vikes host the Oakland Raiders tonight, and Bridgewater should see snaps with the starting offense. I like the home team here in tonight's pre-season contest. Here are my keys to the game: 1: History - The Raiders were 1-3 in the pre-season last year, and 1-3 the previous year. They have also lost three of their four previous pre-season games against Minnesota. 2. Home Cookin' - The Raiders are 0-4 on the road in the pre-season going back to 2012. The Vikes are 2-2 in their last four home games during the pre-season. 3. X-Factor - The Vikings might have the best third string quarterback in the NFL in Christian Ponder. Selection: This is a play on the Minnesota Vikings (8*)
08-08-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Jacksonville Jaguars -130	Top	10-16	Win	100	15 h 11 m	Show
The Jaguars don't have a lot to be positive about, with just six wins over the past two seasons. Needless to say, a home win here in the pre-season would mean a lot more the Jags than it would to Tampa. I like Jacksonville's chances of opening the pre-season with a win at home. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Quarterbacks - With highly touted rookie Blake Bortles battling veteran Chad Henne for the starting job in Jacksonville, I give the edge to the Jags here. 2. Josh McCown - He had an impressive season for the Bears last year, but we'll have to see how he does without Brandon Marshall. We won't likely see a lot of him tonight, and I don't think much of Glennon and Kafka. 3. X-Factor - Rookie wide receivers Marqise Lee and Allen Robinson should provide Bortles and Henne a couple of dangerous targets. Selection: This is a play on the Jacksonville Jaguars (8*)
08-08-14	Buffalo Bills -118 v. Carolina Panthers	Top	20-18	Win	100	15 h 10 m	Show
The Bills lost to the Giants in the hall of fame game, and they will play their second game tonight in Carolina. Buffalo should be far better this year, and I expect to see them get a positive result here tonight. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Rust - The Bills should benefit from having already played one game, while the Panthers should be a little rusty as this will be their first action aside from scrimmages in training camp. 2. Cam Newton - Ron Rivera won't leave him in the game long, coming off an ankle injury that required off season surgery. He might not even see any action in this game. 3. X-Factor - Sammy Watkins didn't make much of an impact against the Giants, but the rookie wideout has looked great in practice. He's likely to be more of a factor tonight. Selection: This is a play on the Buffalo Bills (8*)
08-07-14	Seattle Seahawks -1 v. Denver Broncos	Top	16-21	Loss	-125	15 h 43 m	Show
The Broncos haven't stepped on the field since being embarrassed by Seattle in the Super Bowl, and they will open the pre-season against those Hawks tonight. It's not going to be Manning versus Wilson, so I don't think we'll be seeing a bitter revenge match here. The Seahawks have better depth, and a history of winning in the pre-season (8-0 the last two years) so a similar result to the Super Bowl should be expected. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Quarterbacks - Seattle's second and third string signal callers are both experienced NFL starters, with Pryor who won three games for Oakland last year, and Tavaris Jackson who threw for 14 TDs as Seattle's starter in 2011. 2. Coaching - Not all coaches put value on winning in the pre-season, but Pete Carroll is very clear that his team plays to win. John Fox has a career 25-23 record in the pre-season. 3. X-Factor - The Seahawks have defeated the Broncos by double digits in each of the last three meetings, two of those coming in the pre-season in each of the last two year. Selection: This is a play on the Seattle Seahawks (10*)
08-07-14	Cincinnati Bengals +2 v. Kansas City Chiefs	Top	39-41	Push	0	14 h 43 m	Show
The Bengals will start the pre-season on the road in Kansas City, and history says we should favor the visitors in this contest. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Coaches - Not every head coach puts value on winning in the pre-season, and Andy Reid is just 27-33 in pre-season games throughout his career. 2. Quarterbacks - The Bengals have a veteran backup in Jason Campbell, while the Chiefs second and third string signal callers are looking pretty green in comparison. 3. X-Factor - The Bengals have won the last three head to head meetings since 2008. Selection: This is a play on the Cincinnati Bengals (10*)
08-07-14	San Francisco 49ers v. Baltimore Ravens -1	Top	3-23	Win	100	13 h 13 m	Show
The San Francisco 49ers will take on the Ravens in Baltimore tonight, in the first meeting since their Super Bowl defeat in 2013. Both the Harbaugh brothers have a history of winning in the pre-season, but I give John the edge on his home field tonight. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Injuries - The Niners are getting awful thin in the backfield, with Kendall Hunter and LaMichael James both hurt. The loss of defensive tackle Glen Dorsey doesn't help either. 2. Home Cookin' - Opening the pre-season in front of the home crowd should give the Ravens added motivation. 3. X-Factor - The Ravens have won all four head to head meetings since 2003. Selection: This is a play on the Baltimore Ravens (10*)
08-07-14	New England Patriots v. Washington Redskins	Top	6-23	Loss	-105	13 h 13 m	Show
The New England Patriots will face the Washington Redskins in pre-season NFL action tonight, and it's expected that Tom Brady will not play. Still I expect that Bill Belichick's squad to better the Skins. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Quarterbacks - Ryan Mallet will have a chance to showcase his skills in this pre-season, and he's expected to get the majority of the snaps tonight. He looked pretty good in last year's pre-season. The Redskins know what they have in Kirk Cousins, so I would expect them to give Colt McCoy a chance to carry the bulk of the load. 2. Coaching - Belichick is considered by many to be the best in the business, and he's 32-26 in the pre-season during his illustrious career. Jay Gruden will be making his NFL coaching debut this season, so all we can say about him is that he lacks experience. 3. X-Factor - The Redskins lost nine of their last 10 games, and it's difficult to imagine that their rookie coach could have solved all their problems during training camp. Selection: This is a play on the New England Patriots (10*)
08-07-14	Indianapolis Colts v. NY Jets -170	Top	10-13	Win	100	13 h 44 m	Show
The New York Jets will host the Indianapolis Colts in the opening game of the pre-season tonight, and I believe the smart money is on the home team. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Quarterback Controversy - Mike Vick and Geno Smith are battling for the starting job, and we will expect to see both signal callers make an impact on this game. 2. Coaches - Chuck Pagano has gone 2-2 with the Colts the last two seasons, while Rex Ryan was 3-1 with the Jets last year. Ryan has a losing record overall, but he's been doing a lot of big talking, and now he'll try to put his money where his mouth is. 3. X-Factor - The Jets have won three of the last four head to head meetings, and both home games during that span. Selection: This is a play on the New York Jets (8*)
08-03-14	NY Giants v. Buffalo Bills -1	Top	17-13	Loss	-120	41 h 9 m	Show
The New York Giants will meet the Buffalo Bills in the Hall of Fame Game in Canton tonight, and these two teams have a lot in common. Both franchises are coming off disappointing 2013 campaigns, and both are expecting bigger and better things this season. The Bills might have a better chance of achieving that goal though, and I like Buffalo here tonight. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Quarterbacks - We don't expect Eli Manning and E.J. Manuel to play much of a role in this game, so we will look at which team has the better depth at the quarterback position. The Giants 2nd and 3rd stringers don't give us much reason to get excited, and neither is expected to get any action one the regular season starts. Buffalo on the other hand has Thad Lewis as their second stringer, and he was impressive completing 59% of his passes for 4 TDs and 3 INTs, leading the Bills to a pair of victories in five starts last season. 2. Coaching - One of the biggest factors in handicapping a pre-season game, is understanding whether a coach will actually be gunning for win, or simply using the time to experiment with the playbook. Tom Coughlin has a losing record overall in exhibition games, and he and the Giants were 1-3 last year. Doug Marone's Bills were 2-2 in his rookie season. 3. X-Factor - Rookie wide receiver Sammy Watkins has raised a lot of eyebrows in training camp, and he's looking to make a big impression here in Canton: "I definitely want to go out there and put on a great show for him (Andre Reed)," Watkins said. "And I want to get a win. That would just start the team up and build confidence for everybody." Selection: This is a play on the Buffalo Bills (10*)
08-29-13	Green Bay Packers v. Kansas City Chiefs -4.5	Top	8-30	Win	100	13 h 31 m	Show
I'm taking the Chiefs in the preseason finale with the Packers. Both teams are expecting big things this season, but relative to last season, those goals are much different. Green Bay simply is expecting another NFC North Title and hopefully a deeper run into the playoffs. Meanwhile, coming off a terrible 2-14 year, it's universally expected that Kansas City will improve and with Andy Reid and Alex Smith now at the helm, some feel dramatically so. Off their first win of the preseason, I'm expecting far more effort out of the home team tonight. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Preseason So Far - Green Bay's offense has not been impressive at all. After being shutout in the first game, at home by Arizona, they have managed only 29 points total the last two games. With Aaron Rodgers seeing limited time, the first team offense has not scored a single touchdown. They also jettisoned long-time backup Graham Harrell during the week (now with the Jets). I wouldn't expect much from the Packers in this game, as they've shown little interest so far this preseason. 2. New Regime - Andy Reid got his first win as Chiefs head coach last week and would love nothing more than to get another, this time at home. Remember that with a new coaching staff, it's important for the players (at least those who suit up here) to make an impression. 3. X-Factor - These teams have closed out the preseason against one another the last three years. Considering the Chiefs have lost the last two, the new coaching staff would love to get a win. Selection: The play is on the Kansas City Chiefs (10*).
08-29-13	Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 v. NY Jets	Top	20-27	Loss	-115	12 h 32 m	Show
Oh, those New York Jets. The regular season hasn't even started yet and already they're bringing this comedy. If there is one thing that seems for sure with the 2013 edition of the J-E-T-S, its that this is going to be Rex Ryan's last season at the helm. His tenure is basically "married" to Mark Sanchez, so it's likely he'll try and ride out "Sanchize" as long as he possibly can, but it's almost inevitable that rookie Geno Smith will become the starter by year's end. Due to Ryan's own incompetence last week (played Sanchez in the 4th quarter behind an offensive line filled with backups), Sanchez will be unable to play here. In the wake of that terrible decision (which got Sanchez hurt), Smith is expected to sit as well. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Jets' QB Situation - What a mess. Smith was given a chance to shine last week and he stunk up the joint with three interceptions. The fateful decision to put Sanchez in (to try and win the game, which the Jets did) was then made. I do find some irony in media comments that Sanchez needed "to be protected" given that this is the same media that's ripped Sanchez for three seasons. With both Smith and Sanchez out tonight, that leaves the QB duties to Matt Simms and the newly signed Graham Harrell. The latter has been stinking up the joint for Greey Bay in the preseason the last couple seasons. Despite being "just off the street," Harrell is actually #2 on the depth chart because Greg McElroy is also injured. 2. Eagles QB Situation - Matt Barkley is likely to get most of the reps tonight for Chip Kelly, but Nick Foles will start. Mike Vick won't play at all. Like the Jets, the Eagles actually have five QB's on the current roster, but the only difference here is that it's not out of necessity. I give the Eagles a big edge at QB Thursday night. 3. X-Factor - I think the idea that Kelly is going to look to pass all over the place this season is a bit misguided. The Eagles are averaging 156 yds rushing per game so far. They have great depth at that position. Selection: The play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (10*).
08-25-13	Minnesota Vikings v. San Francisco 49ers UNDER 39	Top	14-34	Loss	-110	11 h 40 m	Show
Given the way both the Vikings and 49ers' offenses have performed so far this preseason, I think the Under is the right call tonight. Both teams made the playoffs last year, Minnesota surprisingly so, but both have hardly played playoff-caliber football the last two weeks. The Vikings are 0-2, having scored just 29 points total. San Francisco has actually been worse, totalling only 21 points in its two games, though they did win last week 15-13 over the Chiefs. Both of the 49ers' games have easily gone Under while both Vikings games have seen 40 or less points scored. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Vikings' Offensive Woes - Playing without their lone offensive threat, Adrian Peterson, the Vikings have not looked impressive with the ball so far in two games. Quarterback play is the major concern coming into the year and starter Christian Ponder has not done a lot to alleviate those concerns, including a poor 5 of 12 for 53 yard performance last week in five series. Backup Matt Cassel was no better, completing four of eight passes for only 29 yards. The Vikings managed only 74 yds of total offense last week in the first half and 13 of their 16 points were scored in garbage time in the fourth quarter when they already trailed 20-3. 2. 49ers' Offensive Woes - Colin Kaepernick has not seen much action so far in the preseason, and while you'd expect that to change after tonight, the 49ers have only 21 points in two games and had not scored a touchdown until the third quarter last week when BJ Daniels hooked up with Chuck Jacobs. The Under is now 7-2-1 with coach Jim Harbaugh at the helm in San Francisco. 3. X-Factor - While the offense has not done much, the 49ers defense again looks strong. Last week, they had seven sacks, eight hurries and nine tackles for loss. Facing the Vikings without Peterson should be a relatively easy chore for this top flight unit. Selection: The play is Under Minnesota-San Francisco (10*).
08-24-13	Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 v. Jacksonville Jaguars	Top	31-24	Win	100	15 h 45 m	Show
Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles officially ended their quarterback competition during the week, naming Mike Vick the starter for Week 1 as expected. I don't expect this to have any affect on their ability to defeat the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The Jags come in at 0-2 so far in the preseason and have struggled to put points on the board. Like yesterday with Seattle, who I won with, the road team is favored here for a reason. The Eagles have some momentum, coming off the 1st win of the Chip Kelly era last week, beating Carolina 14-9. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Jacksonville Offense - In two games, the Jags have scored just 16 total points. They have seven turnovers and have failed to cover both games. Making matters worse is the fact that Blaine Gabbert, who has already been named the Week 1 starter, is out of action with a hairline fracture on his throwing hand. Gabbert had actually looked good last week. The problem with him being named starter already though is that there is little incentive for Chad Henne to go "all out" in this game. He was just 4 for 10 passing last week for 30 yards and 1 INT. While Philadelphia's offense has gone over 400 yds each of the first two games, Jacksonville has yet to go over 300 total yards. 2. Eagles Defense - One week after getting run over by the Patriots, the Eagles defense did a lot better last week, holding Carolina to just 50 yds rushing in the first half. The Panthers were held out of the end zone and finished with just three field goals. Keep in mind that's an offense with Cam Newton. Jacksonville has no such weapons. Even more impressive is that Philadelphia was able to overcome a -3 turnover ratio and still win last week. 3. X-Factor - Jacksonville was outscored 27-0 in the second half last week, not a good sign when the starters come out. Selection: The play is on the Philadelphia Eagles (10*).
08-24-13	NY Jets +1.5 v. NY Giants	Top	24-21	Win	100	14 h 15 m	Show
This annual preseason clash has always mattered more to the Jets, so I'm going to go ahead and take them plus the points Saturday as rookie QB Geno Smith attempts to lay claim to the starting job. The Giants have hardly been world-beaters so far this preseason, scoring just 30 points total in the two games and failing to top 300 total yards either time. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Jets QB Situation - The fact that the rookie Smith is starting in the most important preseason games does speak volumes. Provided his injured ankle holds up, Smith is scheduled to play into the third quarter. Behind him, Mark Sanchez has obviously proven himself not to be a top flight QB in his four years in the league, but he's competing for a starting job and at time has looked good this preseason. Case in point, last week he led the Jets on five scoring drives. With the Giants, behind Eli Manning, there's no competition and Manning himself has been shaky in the two games. The Jets outscored the Jaguars 27-0 in the second half last week. 2. Series History - The Jets own a 14-5 ATS edge against the Giants in the preseason. This game typically means more to them as come the regular season they won't be enjoying much success. Also, the Jets have revenge from last year's 26-3 debacle vs. the Giants. 3. X -Factor - The Giants are working on a short week here, having last played Sunday in a 20-12 loss to the Colts. They will again be facing a short-week as the close out the preseason on Thursday at New England. Right now, the team's main concern is getting ready for Dallas in the season opener. Selection: The play is on the New York Jets (10*)
08-24-13	Buffalo Bills v. Washington Redskins	Top	7-30	Loss	-110	12 h 46 m	Show
I'll take the Bills Saturday against the Redskins. One could make the argument that the three top quarterbacks in this game are all out: rookie EJ Manuel for Buffalo and both Robert Griffin III and Kirk Cousins for Washington. That makes Kevin Kolb, a former starter in this league, a pretty viable commodity for Buffalo. Who would have thought? Kolb is still trying to win the starting job for first year coach Doug Marrone. Already, we've seen this line shift several points in favor of the road team. I don't feel Washington will be taking dress rehearsal week as seriously as most other teams. Here are my keys to the game. 1. Shorthanded 'Skins - With Griffin and (likely) Cousins both out, that leaves Rex Grossman to man the battleship for Washington. Good luck with that. Grossman was fine last week against the Steelers' backups, but now he will likely be thrust in there with the first-team, who Cousins has taken the bulk of the reps with so far in camp. Also, on defense, Redskins' starters are only expected to be on the field for about 10 to 15 snaps reportedly. 2. Kevin Kolb - He is trying to become the Bills' starting QB and thus we should have a signal caller really trying to impress. The same could be said for his backup Jeff Tuel, the rookie who had a big game when Kolb didn't play in the opener against Indianapolis. So far in two games, the Bills offense has gained 451 and 380 total yards. 3. X-Factor - The Bills have been using an up-tempo offense so far in the preseason, getting off 85 and 78 plays respectively in their first two games. Compare that to the 55 and 68 plays Washington's first two opponents ran respectively. With a first year head coach, the Bills players are looking to impress. Selection: The play is on the Buffalo Bills (10*).
08-23-13	Seattle Seahawks -2 v. Green Bay Packers	Top	17-10	Win	100	13 h 50 m	Show
I'm taking the Seahawks Friday night in Green Bay. It's rare to see the road team favored in preseason, particularly if it's the Packers playing at home, but in this instance Seattle is worthy of the line. On the short-list of Super Bowl contenders, Pete Carroll's Seahawks have more than justified their lofty preseason hype with a pair of blowouts to start the preseason. Meanwhile, Green Bay has looked rather lethargic in its two games, including a shutout loss here at home to Arizona in the opener. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Seahawks Rolling - Thus far, Seattle has outscored its preseason opponents by a combined score of 71 to 20. They opened up by blowing out San Diego 31-10 and then last week absolutely crushed Denver 40-10. And it wasn't like it was the backups piling up points in mop up time against the Broncos. The Seahawks led the game 33-7 at half and 40-7 at the end of three quarters. The defense forced four turnovers, three coming in the first half. QB Russell Wilson completed 8 of 12 passes for 127 yards and a pair of touchdowns. 2. Their time of year - Under Pete Carroll, the Seahawks are 9-4-1 ATS in the preseason, including 5-1 ATS on the road. They are a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread the last two seasons anf every win has come by 10 or more points. 3. X-Factor - Up until the fourth quarter last week, Green Bay had not scored a touchdown in the preseason. Rumor has it that coach Mike McCarthy will not be treating this week's game with the utmost importance as he focuses in on the players competing for the final roster spots. Selection: The play is on the Seattle Seahawks (10*).
08-22-13	New England Patriots v. Detroit Lions -1	Top	9-40	Win	100	9 h 28 m	Show
I'll take the Lions at home Thursday night against the Patriots. New England comes in at 2-0 in the preseason while Detroit is 1-1. The Lions didn't look too good on the road last week, losing 24-6 at Cleveland. But in the dress rehearsal game at home, I expect them to bounce back. Reportedly, wide receiver Calvin Johnson will be returning to the field tonight, which is big for a first team offense that has yet to score a touchdown in the preseason. The Lions are 4-1 ATS at home in the preseason the last three years and had an extra day to prepare as well. Here are my keys to the game: 1. Turnovers - Detroit is one of four teams not to have committed a turnover this preseason. Turnover ratio has been a point of emphasis all off-season from coach Jim Schwartz. 2. Precedent - The Lions beat the Patriots here at Ford Field two years ago in a Dress Rehearsal game and did so handily, 34-10 as a three-point underdog. Though this is generally considered to be the most meaningful preseason game for both sides, I think it's the Lions that will be more serious as the first two weeks have shown they are the team with more issues to work out. 3. X-Factor - Obviously, it's Megatron, who has come out and said he will play Thursday. So far, the first team Detroit offense has managed just a pair of field goals in seven possessions. With Johnson in there, they have a good chance at changing that. Also, the New England defense has given up 289 yards rushing in the two games. Selection: The play is on the Detroit Lions (10*).
08-19-13	Pittsburgh Steelers v. Washington Redskins UNDER 39.5	Top	13-24	Win	100	11 h 7 m	Show
full game analysis will be posted shortly

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