The set-up: I think this is a great situational play. The Bengals are 0-3 and the Steelers are 0-3. For all intents and purposes, these two teams are already planning ahead to next season. The Steelers looked horrible even before starting QB Ben Roethlisberger went down with injury. Last week Big Ben’s backup Mason Rudolph looked horrible against the 49ers and I don’t see anything changing here vs. the Bengals’ hungry defense. 

The pick: As mentioned off the top, even with Roethlisberger in the line-up, the Steelers’ offense looked poor. The Steelers are getting poor play from RB James Conner as well, who is averaging only 2.9 YPC. The Bengals almost beat the Seahawks and the Bills on the road (fumbles in the closing moments ruined the outright victory,) and it’s been because of their defensive play. I think both teams concentrate on the run as well while on offense as they try to control this contest and limit mistakes. Taking into account all of the above situational factors, I’m going to play the under.

10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the under Bengals/Steelers.

The set-up: I think the Bucs are going to have a hard time moving the ball vs. this improved Rams’ defensive front. The Bucs are 1-2 and on the ropes in a tough division, while the Rams are 3-0. LA’s offense has yet to get untracked though, as their win last week on Sunday Night was anything but spectacular vs. the Rams. LA’ QB Jared Goff is definitely suffering an early season letdown compared to last year’s numbers. Jameis Winston has been hit or miss early and I think his struggles on the road continues here. 

The pick: Tampa’s defense has been much better with Todd Bowles directing the unit and it’ll be looking to get after Goff early and often. In fact note that the Bucs have the league’s sack leader in Shaq Barrett. Also note that LA RB Todd Gurley continues to struggle with consistency as well after returning from injury late last year. This one has defensive battle written all over it in my opinion. 

10* NON-CONF TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the under Bucs/Rams.

The set-up: I simply don’t think the Dolphins are as bad as this spread would suggest (despite being 0-3 and their earlier results.) I also don’t think that the Chargers are nearly as good as what this spread would suggest. Especially on the road, a place where they’ve always had a difficult time. While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely feel that this spread is much too large. The Chargers come in off back-to-back losses of their own. Josh Rosen makes his second start as the starting QB for Miami and I think he’ll benefit from last week’s experience. 

The pick: LA won’t get RB Melvin Gordon back in the line-up until next week and while Austin Ekeler has been decent in a back-up role, I still think the visitors are stretched thin here. Also note that the Chargers are a poor 1-3 ATS in their last four as a favorite of ten points or more, while the Dolphins are 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 14 points or less in two straight games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Fish.

8* SUPER DOG DESTROYER on the Miami Dolphins.

The set-up: The Raiders beat the Broncos at home in Week 1, but they’ve since dropped two straight. So far Raiders’ QB Derek Carr has four TD’s and three INT’s. With an upcoming game in London England, the road ahead isn’t going to get any easier for Carr and company, who will clearly be given the green light from start to finish in this one. The Colts have done better than expected with Jacoby Brissett, who currently has 646 passing yards with seven TD’s and one INT. 

The pick: On paper the Colts are the better team. But the Raiders have talent and they’re definitely the “hungrier” dog in this fight. The Colts come in complacent in my opinion and note that they’re just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after two or more consecutive wins vs. the spread. The Raiders have struggled in most ATS categories the last few seasons, but note that they’re 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing 30 points or more in their previous outing. I’m banking on a “nail-biter.” Grab the points. 

8* UPSET SPECIAL on the Oakland Raiders.

The set-up: The Chiefs’ offense is fantastics, but I’m still uncertain about their defense. The Lions have been much better than expected this season (on both sides of the ball) and I think they will at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. The Chiefs come to town content at 3-0 and off their 33-28 home win over the Ravens last Sunday. Patrick Mahomes now has 1,195 yards, ten TD’s and no INT’s this year. 

The pick: But I think Mahomes confidence gets the better of him today. The Lions are a dangerous non-conference opponent, especially at home and without question on the defensive side, holding teams to only 269.3 passing yards per game and only four TD’s over the first three contests. The Chiefs allow 395 total yards per game, including 258 through the air. Veteran Lions’ QB Matt Stafford has 831 passing yards with six TD’s and two INT’s. The Chiefs have a terrible run defense, so keep your eyes on Kerryon Johnson and CJ Anderson as well for the home side. This is a trap game for KC and I think it falls hook, line and sinker right into it. Grab the points.

9* PLAY-BOOK on the Detroit Lions. 

The set-up: Last year these team’s split two very close games which were decided by a combined five points. I don’t think anything will change this season either between these division rivals. The Ravens’ offense looks decent behind Lamar Jackson, who has 863 yards passing and seven TD’s. But the Ravens are in a letdown spot after their first loss of the year last week, falling 33-28 in Kansas City. Yes the Browns are only 1-2, but they’ve looked a lot better after their poor Week 1 performance/collapse vs. the Titans. Cleveland looked great last week I thought despite falling 20-13 at home to the high-powered Rams. Bayker Mayfield is under an extreme amount of pressure and while he did throw an INT on the four yard line with 33 seconds left, I think he continues to progress and gain confidence as the season progresses. This is a big game for Cleveland, as a win today propels them into a tie for the division lead. 

The pick: Cleveland’s offense is going to break out at some point this year and if not now, when? Cleveland’s defense is ranked 16th overall, allowing 22 PPG. The Ravens average 36 PPG and they concede 20. This isn’t going to be a cake-walk, but the Browns to have the talent in all three phases to hang with the Ravens and when you add on the desperation factor, I wouldn’t in fact be shocked by an outright upset. Note that the Ravens are 0-4 ATS in their last four at home and in their last four following a SU loss, while the Browns are 4-1 ATS in their last five following an ATS loss and 7-2 ATS in their last nine following a SU loss. I’m grabbing the points.

10* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Yes the Eagles are “desperate” at 1-2, but they’ve also been terrible for the most part leading into this short week Thursday night contest. Carson Wentz has been good for Philly, but he’s been hampered by the fact that so many of his offensive weapons around him are injured. Five teams sit without a loss in the Eagles’ division and with a chance to deliver the knock out blow, I think the surging home side does just that. With a shot at a 4-0 start, I look for the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. 

The pick: Note that Green Bay has led a half time in each of its three wins. The Packers have jumped out to early leads and maintained because of their incredible defensive play, allowing only 11.7 PPG. I think that Philadelphia struggles here to move the ball vs. this red hot defensive unit and I expect Aaron Rodgers to continue his blistering start to the 2019/20 campaign. All things considered, I feel this line could/should in fact be much larger.

10* SUPER DESTRUCTION on the Green Bay Packers.

The set-up: I’m a situational handicapper (for the most part) and this is a situationally based pick (note, most of my O/U picks, in every sport, or in fact based upon the situation in which each time finds itself coming in.) Chicago is 1-1 after narrowly edging the Broncos. The Bears looked inept vs. the Packers in Week 1 though. Bears’ QB Mitch Trubisky has been shaky at best and he’ll be out to “right the ship” in this favorable matchup. Trubisky and the offense are going to come out and push the pace from start to finish as they look to take advantage of this suspect Skins secondary.

The pick: And it’s do or die essentially for Washington, as an 0-3 hole essentially means that it will already miss the playoffs. While the defense definitely has more questions than answers, note though that the Skins have in fact been decent on the offensive end early, averaging 24.0 PPG, which ranks tenth overall (QB Case Keenum has 601 passing yards, five TD’s and zero INT’s.) Chicago’s defense is impressive, but I believe this games flies over sooner, rather than later.

10* TOTAL COACH’S CORNER on the over Bears/Redskins.

The set-up: The Browns bounced back with a big win at the Jets last week after getting destroyed on Opening Night by the Titans. Cleveland got behind early in Week 1 and combined with a series of miscues and penalties, both the offensive and defensive game plans got thrown out the window early. Last week though Cleveland looked a lot better and precise on both sides of the ball. LA is in a three-way tie in the tough NFC West with both Seattle and the 49ers and it’s difficult to say anything negative about it to this point, however the overall situation is working against the visitors today.

The pick: I think LA gets caught “looking ahead” to its game next week for the Seahawks. Cleveland is set up perfectly here to steal this one outright, but in a contest which I see being decided by whichever of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points (and note, LA is a poor 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite of seven points or less, while Cleveland is a solid 4-2 ATS in its last six non-conference games.) Outright isn’t out of the question, but grab the points.

10* SLAUGHTER-FEST on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: No outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for a “nail-biter” in this one. Denver’s 0-2 and desperate. The stats for teams that start the year 0-3 are downright terrible, so for all intents and purposes, the Bronco’s entire season is on the line this week. Green Bay on the other hand enters on the other end of the spectrum by starting 2-0. The Packers were terrible defensively last year, but so far this season they’ve allowed just 9.5 points per game.

The pick: But I think Green Bay’s early defensive numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. Joe Flacco isn’t the QB he once was, but his veteran experience in this situation is actually a strength for Denver going in. Denver lost in the final seconds to the Bears last week (16-14), but it was under some suspect calls from the refs, which prompted Broncos’ head coach Vic Fangio to remark: “You can’t control the officiating or bad calls.” Note that GB is just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine following an ATS win, while Denver is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 after allowing more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game. I expect this one to come down to the final moments.

8* play on Denver Broncos.

The set-up: The Eagles have looked terrible so far this year and I think there’s a chance they could lose this one outright as well. Detroit is 1-0-1 after beating LA 13-10 at home last week. Detroit should be 2-0 after it let a late lead slip away in Week 1, as the Lions are looking much better on both sides of the ball, especially defensively. 

The pick: Detroit kept Philip Rivers out of the end zone last week, so Carson Wentz and this struggling Eagles’ offense will not have an easy time today. Last week Wentz was 25 of 43 for 231 yards, a TD and two INT’s. The Eagles’ run game was non-existent as well, with Jordan Howard picking up 18 yards on eight carries. Also note that Philadelphia suffered major injuries to key players last week (DeSean Jackson, Alshon Jeffery and DT Tim Jernigan all listed as day to day.) I think the Lions can smell the blood in the water. Grab the points.

8* play on the Detroit Lions.

The set-up: Two undefeated teams collide on Sunday afternoon and only one will leave with the victory. Unless there’s a tie, which isn’t out of the question in my opinion. Regardless, in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. KC has won two games on the road, but that was vs. Jacksonville and Oakland. Baltimore has beaten Miami and Arizona. When these teams met in Week 14 last year it was KC that held on for the 27-24 win, making the “revenge scenario” a very real one for Lamar Jackson and the surging Ravens as well. 

The pick: So far Baltimore has outscored its opposition 82-27 this year. Jackson and RB Mark Ingram are going to prove to be too much for this suspect Chiefs’ defense to handle in my opinion. The Chiefs behind QB Patrick Mahomes have outscored their opposition by a 68-36 margin, but the questions on the defensive side of the ball still remain for me. Not so for Baltimore though and while I’m stopping short in calling for the outright upset, I’m definitely going to grab the points in what sets up to be a very competitive battle.

8* play on the Baltimore Ravens.

The set-up: These two teams enter hungry. That’s where the similarities end though, as Cincinnati is essentially in a “must win” scenario at 0-2, while the Bills are looking to build off their improbable 2-0 start. Neither team will be lacking for motivation here and as such, I’m expecting this contest to be extremely wide open. After a tight 21-20 setback in Seattle and then a 41-17 loss to San Francisco, the pressure is clearly on Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton to step up and deliver here. 

The pick: The Bills have gotten great play on both sides of the ball as well, especially from QB Josh Allen, who led his team on four TD drives in their Week 2 victory against the Giants. From a situational stand point, I think it definitely sets up as a “shootout,” but also note that the Bengals have seen the total go over the number in six of their last seven as a road dog of seven points or less, while Buffalo has seen the total soar over in nine of its last 12 at home. This number is a litre low.

8* play on the over Bengals/Bills.

The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams after each won in Week 2. Colts’ QB Jacoby Brissett has five TD’s and just one INT so far this year and the run game has looked decent as well for the Colts behind Marlon Mack. The Falcons looked pretty good in their 24-20 win over the Eagles last week, as ATSL gets production across the board from several key players, including Calvin Ridley, who has 169 receiving yards already. 

The pick: I think it’s interesting to note though that the Falcons lead the league in receiving yards allowed and so far they’ve done a superb job in limiting big plays. The Colts are ranked dead last in the NFL in passing yards per game (147) and I believe their extreme one-dimensionality comes back to bite them here. Grab the points.

8* play on the Atlanta Falcons.

The set-up: Two teams which have gotten out to shaky starts go head to head on Sunday afternoon and because of that, I expect more of a higher-scoring shootout than a lower-scoring battle. Oakland comes in off a 28-10 loss at home to Kansas City and it hits the road for the first time this year. Minnesota enters off a sloppy performance/loss in Green Bay. Dalvin Cook was a bright spot for Minnesota last week, finishing with 154 rushing yards.  

The pick: Oakland heads out on a lengthy road trip, as its only home game in the next five weeks is in London. The Raiders have been getting great production from other members as well, including WR Tyrell Williams, who has 151 yards receiving and two TD’s so far. The Raiders have to be feeling good with RB Josh Jacobs as well, who has 184 rushing yards and two TD’s. The passing defense looked poor vs. Patrick Mahomes though and it’ll be tested again this week by the Vikes’ Kirk Cousins. These two starting QB’s (David Carr and Cousins) both have something to prove this year and after suspect starts to the 2019/20 season. When you add it all up, everything does indeed point to the over as the correct call in this one.

10* TOTAL BLOWOUT ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the over Raiders/Vikings.

The set-up: Not known for their offensive explosiveness for the most part, I do in fact believe that this game’s total will fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Neither team has the luxury to take the foot off the gas tonight and just hope things work out. The Titans are 1-1, while the Jaguars are 0-2. Jacksonville came “oh so close” to an upset in Houston last Sunday, but it wasn’t enough. While both of these team’s games vs. each other went “under” the number last year, I believe the overall conditions that each side finds itself in will finally lend itself to more of a high-scoring shootout. 

The pick: Indeed, despite both game’s totals going under the number last year, five of the last seven between these clubs have gone over the number. Tennessee looked great in its Week 1 demolition of the Browns, but then it had a letdown in last week’s 19-17 loss to the Colts. RB Derrick Henry ate up the Jags last year and he had 81 yards and a TD in last week’s defeat as well. Jacksonville is banged up across the board, but rookie QB Gardner Minshew isn’t going to be lacking for motivation either. When you add up all of the above factors, this number is low in my opinion. 

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Titans/Jags.

The set-up: The Browns were their own worst enemy in Week 1, as several dumb/costly penalties led to an early deficit and they were never mentally able to recover. But Cleveland hasn’t played on Monday night since 2010 and it’ll be out to correct those mistakes and take advantage of this situation (18 penalties for 182 yards.) New York looked poor in Week 1 too though, blowing a 16-0 lead to the Bills at home. But injuries played a big part in New York’s second half collapse, as CJ Moseley and Quinnen Williams both sidelined. 

The pick: And now to make matters worse for New York, QB Sam Darnold has been diagnosed with mononucleosis, meaning that backup Trevor Siemian is being thrust into the spotlight. Baker Mayfield threw three INT’s last week, but that was more out of a sense of desperation with the game already out of reach. I think the Browns defense is the biggest difference maker today. It looked bad last week, but the aforementioned penalties played a big part in that. I think the visitors feast on the Jets’ instability. Lay the points.

10* MONDAY NIGHT MASSACRE on the Cleveland Browns.

The set-up: Philadelphia came from behind to knock off the Redskins 33-27 last weekend, I but I think it’ll struggle in this difficult road venue and against this desperate Falcons side looking to bounce back off a poor 28-12 loss to the Vikes in Week 1. Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ offense looked terrible for most of the game, but they finally found a bit of a rythym near the end of the game and I believe the unit will carry that momentum over here. In a division packed with quality teams, this has for all intents and purposes become a “must win” for ATL this weekend. 

The pick: The Eagles allowed a ghastly 380 yards to Washington’ QB Case Keenum last week and sacked him only once, so if not now for Ryan and the Falcons…when?! 

Atlanta Falcons 7* play

The set-up: Oakland looked better than expected in Week 1 by besting the Broncos 24-16 on Monday night. The Chiefs rolled through the Jags 40-26, but I think they’ll have a more difficult time in their second straight road game to open the season. Note that the win over Jacksonville came at a price as well as WR Tyreek Hill was lost to injury and NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury. It all adds up to a more conservative style from the visitors explosive offense in my opinion. 

The pick: Oakland got big production from its run game in Week 1, with Josh Jacobs finishing with 85 rushing yards and two TD’s. I look for the improved Raiders defense to play a big part in the outcome of this one as well. And additionally note that KC has seen the total go under in nine of its last 13 after plaint its previous game on the road, while Oakland has seen the total dip under in seven of its last ten as a home dog. The overall conditions/factors definitely point to the under as the correct call on the total in this one.

10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the under Chiefs/Raiders.

The set-up: It’s difficult to win and cover on the road, but the Bills did just that at MetLife Stadium last weekend, staging a come from behind win over the Jets. To do it on back-to-back weeks is extremely difficult and only the better teams usually accomplish that. Clearly the Bills aren’t a great team. It’s almost “do or die” now for Eli Manning and com pay after their loss in Week 1. Expect to see a heavy dose of Giants’ RB Saquon Barkley as well, as he looks to ease the pressure off New York’s veteran pivot. 

The pick: The numbers are on our side as well, as note that Buffalo is a poor 3-4 ATS in its last seven off an upset win as an underdog and only 2-4 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Conversely, the Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five off a road loss vs. a division rival and 3-1 ATS in their last four off a loss by ten points or more to a division rival. Grab the points.

10* VERY EARLY COACH’S CORNER the New York Giants.

The set-up: This is a big game early on for these NFC South opponents and because of that, I believe we’re going to see an all out war from start to finish. This game on the short week just screams defensive battle to me. The Bucs looked inept in their 31-17 loss to the 49ers. Carolina was on its heels early and it could never recover in its 30-27 setback to the Rams. With both divisional teams at 0-1, there’s no question that this sets up as a very important early game for both clubs.

The pick: Cam Newton and Jameis Winston both looked shaky in their respective openers. With both teams looking to protect the ball, to limit turnovers and costly mistakes, from a situational stand point everything clearly points to a lower-scoring affair, but note that the Bucs have seen the total dip under the number in eight of their last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Carolina has seen the total dip under in five of its last six after a loss by six points or less. This number is a little high.

10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under.

The set-up: I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on Broncos. Oakland lost its top receiver in Antonio Brown over the weekend in a heated public dispute and I believe it struggles with its focus on Monday night. Denver on the other hand had a new head coach in Vic Fangio, as well as a new QB in veteran Joe Flacco. Combined with the Bronco’s stellar defensive unit, led by Von Miller, I think that the visitors will find a way to get the job done in Week 1. Remember that next year the Raiders leave to Las Vegas anyways, which will be Jon Gruden’s third year into his five year contract. 

The pick: But as mentioned off the top, this really comes down to the recent AB distraction. For months the Raiders have been preparing to have they dynamic receiver in their line-up and now that he’s done, I believe the one week transition period simply is not enough time. Look for Denver’s methodical approach to be the difference here vs. the short-handed home side. 

Denver Broncos 10* money-line

The set-up: It’s a big game for both teams. It’s a big game for many of the individual players today as well. Antonio Brown was cut by the Raiders and he just signed with the Patriots. He’ll be along side the controversial Josh Gordon now. Of course, AB is playing against his former team for the first time as well. The Steelers won’t be lacking for motivation here obviously facing AB and their most heated and  hated rival. Does anyone have more to prove on the field than Ben Roethlisberger? This is also the nationally televised contest, which puts added pressure on everyone. There’s no lack of experience or talent on the field of play today, but I believe the conditions are right for these two “under the radar” defense to “steal the show” in Week 1. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 15 on the road, while NE has seen the total dip under in six of its last seven as a home favorite of seven points or less. This one has low-scoring battle written all over it. Play the under.

Pittsburgh Steelers/NE Patriots UNDER 9* play

The set-up: No need to overthink this one. Indianapolis has a lot of talent, but the Colts will clearly be looking for an identity moving forward after QB Andrew Luck shockingly announced his retirement from football just a couple of weeks ago. Jacoby Brissett is a capable QB, but the mental blow that Luck’s departure will have on this organization will clearly take some time to get over. 

The pick: Yes the Chargers are without RB Melvin Gordon, but I’ve always been of the thought that RB’s are replaceable in the NFL. The experience that Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers brings to the table is the difference maker here. Brissett only threw 15 passes in the preseason and he sat out the third and fourth games. Rest leads to rust for Brissett and the rudder-less Colts. Lay the money-line on the home side here.

LA Chargers Moneyline 10* play

The set-up: The Rams finally get a chance to take out their frustrations on someone after losing to the Patriots in the Super Bowl. Last year LA was 13-3. Carolina was 6-2 after the first eight weeks of action last season, but it then finished with a 7-9 overall record. A big difference for LA though to open the season is the health of RB Todd Gurley, who had to play through injury over the final month and a half. Receiver Cooper Kupp is back and healthy as well for LA after his season was cut short with an ACL tear. 

The pick: Panthers’ QB Cam Newton suffered a shoulder injury with two games left last year and he underwent surgery for the second time in three years this offseason. Newton was used sparingly in the preseason and sprained his ankle in Week 3 vs. the Patriots. Newton’s health is a concern for me and it makes the hungry and healthy the Rams the correct call in this one. Lay the short points.

LA Rams 10* play

The set-up: While the outright win is clearly not out of the question in my opinion, I’m going to ultimately recommend that you grab as many points as you can in a contest which I envision coming down to whichever of these two talented teams has its hands on the ball last. This is the league’s 100th anniversary season and this is in fact the oldest rivalry in the league. Chicago comes in off an impressive 12-4 campaign in 2018, but with the starters having seen extreme limited time in the pre-season, I believe the home side does indeed come out flat on Opening night. 

The pick: A 1-5 stretch during Nov-Dec. would de-rail the Packers last year and they’d go on to finish 6-9-1. Green Bay though is looking to jump-start its offense with Aaron Rodgers under center once again and it welcomes in new head coach Matt LaFleur, who was the offensive coordinator for the Rams and Titans the last two years. Last year these teams split out and everything once again points to a competitive battle this season. The Packers went out and completely re-vamped their defense as well this year and I believe the moves they made in the off-season pay early dividends. Grab the points.

Green Bay Packers 10* play

The set-up: The story lines are well known. The Rams are the up and coming West Coast team that’s backed by a high-powered offense, while the Patriots are one of the most storied franchises in history. I’ve just never been fully convinced by this year’s version of the Patriots. Tom Brady and company beat the Chiefs at home earlier in the year, so the fact that they won last week doesn’t come as a huge surprise despite being the underdog. LA got blasted for 45 points in a loss to New Orleans earlier in the year, but the Rams’ defense came up huge in the 26-23 OT NFC Conference Championship victory. I simply feel that the Rams’ suddenly improving defense, combined with the “one, two” punch of Goff and Gurley will prove to be too much for Bill Belichick.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England 2-3 ATS this year already after two or more straight victories ATS, while LA is 3-1 ATS this year after two or more straight wins vs. the spread. Grab the points, expect a nail-biter.

10* play

The set-up: If you’re betting this game, then you probably don’t need the “overview” of this game. These teams and their strengths/weaknesses are well known by even the most casual NFL fan. The Patriots of course are the most storied team in the league and QB Tom Brady is a lock for the hall of fame. The Patriots rolled to a 41-28 win over the Chargers at home last weekend, but I think they’ll have their hands full in this difficult road venue. The Chiefs smashed the Colts 31-13 at home and after falling 43-40 in New England back on October 18th, I believe they’ll get their revenge here. I’ve never been fully convinced of the Patriots this year and overall from a “situational” stand point, I absolutely feel that this one sets up great for Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes (50 passing TD’s in the regular season!) and the hungry home side.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New England is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year, while KC is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 as a home favorite of seven points or less. Lay the points, expect a blowout.

10* Chiefs. 

The set-up: I got down early and have a favorable line, but regardless, I love the surging Eagles to catch the Saints a little “flat footed” after their week off. Philadelphia once again defied the odds last weekend with a win in Chicago, as the Bears banged a FG off the cross bar as time expired for the victory. New Orleans went 13-3 in the regular season, but I think that “rest” will lead to “rust” here. The Eagles have been in must win mode for weeks now and that mentality, along with the experience from actually winning the Super Bowl last season, will once again keep this game extremely competitive in my opinion. While the Eagles’ offense dealt with plenty of issues this year, the defense was once again a strength and I think the unit is an overlooked factor here. Note as well that this is an in-season “revenge” game, as Philly was destroyed 48-7 in New Orleans back in Week 11. 

The pick: Nick Foles is under center this time for the Eagles though and I think the experience and momentum that he brings to the table is big as well. Take it for what you will as well, but Philly is interestingly 5-1 ATS in its last six after four or more SU victories, while New Orleans is just 3-4 ATS as a home favorite this season and and just 1-4 ATS following a divisional contest. I won’t call for the outright, but look for this one to come down to the wire. Grab the points.

10* play

The set-up: Andrew Luck and the Colts have sure looked impressive over the last month, but I believe their story comes to and tonight. The Chiefs can’t play a lick of defense, but they haven’t had to with their dynamic offense, led by Patrick Mahomes, who set offensive records this year. With a week off to focus and game-plan though, I absolutely expect the Chiefs’ to also “step up” their game defensively as well. Indianapolis averaged 27.1 PPG, while allowing 21.5. The Chiefs averaged 35.3 PPG though and allowed 26.3. 

The pick: Mahomes though is the difference maker in my opinion. He finished with 5,097 passing yards with a sharp 50/12 TD/INT. Take it for what you will as well, but despite the Colts recent “up-tick” in play, they’re still only 14-17 ATS in their last 31 as an underdog, while Kansas City is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 after scoring 30 points or more in its last game. In my estimation, everything points to the Colts running out gas this weekend. I’m laying they points.

10* play

The set-up: While Seattle won a lower-scoring 24-13 contest at home over the Cowboys back on September 23rd, I believe this time around we’ll see a much more wide open “shootout.” Both teams have made leaps and strides since the early weeks, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Ezekiel Elliot rushed for nearly 1,500 yards, which allowed Dak Prescott to find his game again. The late season acquisition of Amari Cooper was also a huge boost for the Dallas offense late in the year. Seattle veteran QB Russell Wilson put together arguably his best ever campaign and he also benefited greatly from a strong run game, which finished No. 1 in the league. From a situational stand point in my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring affair. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but Seattle has seen the total go “over” the number in five of eight this year as an underdog, while Dallas as seen the total go “over” in five of eight at home and in four of its last five home games when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 45 points. This number is a low, play the “over.” 

10* play

The set-up: With a playoff spot up for grabs, I’m expecting this total to sneak over the number sooner, rather than later. The Colts come in off a thrilling 28-27 come from behind home win over the Giants last Sunday and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that they can’t carry that momentum over here as well. The Titans posted a 25-16 home win over the Giants last weekend. Overall the Colts average 26.8 PPG and they allow 21.2. The Titans average 19.5 PPG and they allow 18. In the first meeting this year though, Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 297 passing yards and three TD’s in a 28 point win.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 20 after playing at home, while Tennessee has seen the total go “over” in five of its last six in trying to revenge a loss where an opponent scored 28 points or more. This number is low, play the “over.” 

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The set-up: Win or lose, the Bears are in the playoffs. Chicago does have a lot to play for here, as a victory today and a San Francisco win will earn it a bye into the divisional round of the playoffs. The Vikes though need a victory here, or there done. If they win though, then they’re in. The entire season of turmoil can be put behind them with one big winning effort and that’s exactly what I’m expecting to see happen. If the Bears go down early, one has to wonder how long they’ll try to keep up the fight? Already assured a spot, clearly this one “means more” to Minnesota. “It is going to be a heightened sense of urgency. For us, playoffs have already started,” Minnesota coach Mike Zimmer assessed at his Wednesday press conference. “We know that we have to win this game in order to get into them. There has to be heightened sense of energy and focus and study time,” he added. “You have to make sure that your bodies are rested and understand it is going to be a physical football game on Sunday.”

The pick: Note as well that Chicago is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 as a road underdog, while Minnesota is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 as a home favorite of 7 points or less. Lay the points.

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The set-up: The Eagles need to win this game, and have the Vikings lose to sneak into a wild card spot. Clearly the only thing that Philadelphia can control is its performance on the field of play today, so with that in mind, I expect the defending champs to continue their late season surge and to leave the Nation’s capital with a convincing victory. The Eagles have been “re-born” with Nick Foles under center, who had four TD passing in last week’s come from behind win over the Texans. Washington would love to play spoiler, but it’s hard to imagine it mustering up much energy this weekend, after last week’s 25-16 listless setback to the Titans, their fifth loss in their last six games, officially eliminated it from contention. Can anyone say letdown spot?!

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Redskins are a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records. Whether they make it into the playoffs or not is yet to be seen, but in my opinion everything definitely points towards a lop-sided destruction for the visitors. Lay the points.

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The set-up: The Browns are looking to play spoiler and they come in with plenty of momentum. Outright victory?! It’s not out of the question! In fact, Cleveland already upset the Ravens at home 12-9 in OT earlier in the year. Browns’ rookie QB Baker Mayfield had 284 passing yards and three TD’s vs. the Bengals last week. Cleveland’s defense dominated as well, giving up just 209 total yards. Note that Cleveland has in fact won five of six overall. The Ravens are the better team on paper, but I think they get pushed to the brink here after upset win over the Chargers in LA last weekend. 

The pick: The Ravens have struggled against the division as well, going just 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. the AFC North. Note that Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home as well. The Browns on the other hand are 5-1 ATS in the last six after an ATS win. Grab the points.

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The set-up: This is the finale for the New York Giants. The Cowboys posted a 27-20 home win per the Bucs in their latest action, while New York fell 28-27 to the Colts last week. The Cowboys have already clinched a wild card, but I think the value still lies with the visitors. Dallas posted a 20-13 home win over New York back in Week 2. The Dallas defense is a difference maker here as it ranks fourth in the NFL, allowing only 19.3 PPG. Giants’ QB Eli Manning won’t be throwing to Odell Beckham Jr, who is done for the season. Last week the Giants allowed 357 passing yards. Overall New York allows 25.1 PPG and it averages just 22.3. 

The pick: Despite both Cowboys’ offensive stars’ Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot likely to see limited time in this one, the visitors are still the deeper team. The Cowboys’ defense (as stated above), is also a difference maker for me here. Grab the points.

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The set-up: Two teams playing out their respective seasons collide on Monday night. If these clubs could have a “do over,” they’d clearly both jump on it. Regardless, I think the Broncos will do just enough to gut out the win and cover. The Raiders have nothing to play for here and another loss will only help them in the draft next year. Raiders’ hired Jon Gruden on the off-season last year and his first season has been a disaster. Broncos’ head coach Vance Joseph is expected to be fired after his Week 17 matchup with the Chargers, but he’s not going down without a fight: “Absolutely. We want to win,” Joseph said on Monday. “These next two games are important for us to finish the right way. That part is very important to me. It’s about winning. That’s what it’s about. It’s not about losing, it’s about winning. That’s very important to our football team and our coaches.”

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Denver is already 2-0 ATS this year after a loss by 3 points or less, while Oakland is a terrible 4-8 ATS as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos.

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The set-up: From a situational stand point, there’s no doubt that this one sets up as a high-scoring shootout. The Chiefs come in off a tough 29-28 home loss to the Chargers on Thursday. The Chiefs remain the highest scoring team in the league, but they’re in the bottom third defensively. KC needs to win this game to keep pace for the top spot in the AFC. The Hawks also come in off a tough 26-23 OT loss in San Francisco last weekend. Both teams feature a couple of the best QB’s in the league in Patrick Mahomes and Russell Wilson. Each will be given the green light here today obviously. As stated off the top, this one definitely sets up as a higher-scoring shootout in my opinion.

The pick: Take it for what you will as well though, but KC has seen the total go “over” the number in six of seven on the road already this year, while Seattle has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 15 as an underdog. This number is low, play the “over.”

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The set-up: The Rams look ripe for the picking here in my opinion. LA comes in off a 30-23 home loss to Philadelphia. Arizona was crushed 40-14 by Atlanta last weekend, but it plays with revenge here after falling 34-0 in LA in Week 2. 

The pick: LA has in fact lost back-to-back games, falling 15-6 in Chicago in Week 14, followed by last week’s upset as well. Arizona would love nothing more than to continue to play spoiler. The home side won’t be rolling over. Take it for what you will as well, but the Cards are still 3-1 ATS vs. the division this year. I’m grabbing the points.

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The set-up: Carolina still has a shot at one of the wild card spots in the NFC, but the team just shut down starting QB Cam Newton after six straight losses and I think the Falcons, who broke a three-game slide with a win over the Cardinals last weekend, will like nothing more than to play the role of spoiler here. Atlanta is eliminated from playoff contention, but the core group will be looking to end the season on a positive note and taking out their hated rival will go a long way in soothing the disgruntled fan base back in ATL. 

The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ATL is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 off a home victory, while Carolina is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after playing on MNF. Lay the points and look for Matt Ryan and the Falcons to deliver the knock out blow.

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The set-up: The defending champs continue to defy the odds and keep their playoff hopes alive. The Texans posted a 29-22 road win over New York and it still has a two game lead over Indy for the division title. Philadelphia rallied for a 30-23 upset win over the Rams last weekend and it’ll need to win today as well to keep pace in the Wild card race. 

The pick: The Eagles’ defense remains a difference maker and I think the unit will be once again this week as well. Additionally note that Houston is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 as a road underdog, while Philadelphia is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 as a home favorite. Look for Nick Foles and company to defend home turf.

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