The Eagles, 3rd in points scored this year, have beaten 4 teams by 12 or more points this season.  The Texans have lost just once by more than Thursday's total points, but have yet to face a top 10 defense, let alone a team of the caliber of the Eagles.  The Raiders and the Chargers put up 30+ points against Houston, but neither team has as complete an offense as the Eagles.  Philadelphia does give up more rush yards and yards per attempt lately, their weakest spot on defense, but the Texans don't really have a run game.  The Texans could have an opportunity to pressure Hurts as they are 19th and improving in sacks, but Hurts and Co. could just run the ball down the Texans' throats all evening if they wanted.  the Texans gave up a whopping 314 rushing yards last week, and stand last in rush yards.  The Eagles, really, should be able to pass or run at will, and will likely have a huge time of possession advantage. As long as they show up to play, the Eagles should win and cover under the light on TNF.

The Bengals offense is sizzling, showing huge improvement in their recent games.  They put up mammoth yards last week, and are top eight in points and Red zone offense, and top 2 in possession time and 3rd down conversions.  While they are running more successfully and getting more points from the rush offense, It is their passing game, as expected that is carrying the team.  Burrows has been a standout and isn't even sacked as often  lately.  In fact, using sack %, the Browns' QB Brissett has been sacked just as often in recent games.
The Browns' offense has slipped lately, down in some important categories including rush yards, 3re down conversion and sacks, 5 last week and 3 a game L3.  Jacoby Brissett had a very good game even with the sacks last week, but by and large he has been average or worse, with an average QB rating of 76 L3 games.
The Bengals' defense has been solid lately,terrific in the red zone, 2nd in time of possession, and 6th in points allowed,; all told they are a considerably better defense that their opponent.  Their rush defense is just middle of the pack, allowing Chubb some room to move, but the Browns won't keep up with the Bengals' high-powered offense by running the ball.  The Bengals are tough to move against in the air, and while they don't pressure passers at an elite level, they are much better at it than the Browns.  Imagine Burrow with time to play!
I am on the Bengals under the lights, especially now that a 3 point line is available.  Yes the Bengals will miss Chase, but the Browns are arguably the  worse off in terms of week 8 injuries.  Take the Bengals to win and cover.

The Colts are on the road and facing an improved Commanders team off a big win last week.  Neither team puts many points on the board, and neither team gives up many against. Both defenses are top ten in applying pressure on passers, and almost equally bad in protecting their own QBs.  The Commanders have a pair of accomplished and complementary RBs, and are using them more each week.  The Colts have a recovering Jonathon Taylor, who has been seriously under-used when playing to date.  For whatever reason, the Colts are in the cellar in rushing categories, but that may change this week.  With a young QB who has yet to throw a pass in the NFL, the run game will likely be a huge part of the Colts offense on Sunday.
Heinicke was effective against the Packers last week, and seemed in synch with the Commanders top targets.  Ehlinger is a huge unknown this week.  The Colts are throwing him out there with no experience, not necessarily a recipe for success.
With a much improved defense, and an effective run game that matches up well against a Colts' defense that can be run on , and as a 3 point underdog, I like the Commanders' chances again this week.  Take the Commanders to win or stay close on Sunday.

It is all about the run on both sides of the ball for the Titans.  King Henry is most of the offense, but Tennessee isn't even close to having the best running stats.  The Titans run a very efficient offense, scoring more points with less yards.  Tannehill is out, and while he doesn't put up huge numbers, he has been accurate, effective and doesn't make many mistakes.  It remains to be seen how much the inclusion of Willis will affect the  Titans' offense management.  Willis will bring his own abilities.  He can run effectively, adding to an otherwise one-dimensional run offense.  
The Texans are en-mired in the depths of the NFL, averaging just 17 points and giving up 22, although the Raiders put up 38 last week.  They also have a fine running back in Pierce, but face a very tough Titans run defense that has limited teams to just 45 yards and few points in their last three games.  Mills could have some success in the air for Houston.  The Titans give up plenty of passing yards and points, but are physically very tough on passers with 60 pressures and 3 sacks per game on avg. Mills had his best game in week seven, but will likely have less time to operate this week.  He has been pretty average otherwise, with 5 picks to just 7 TDs, and a passer rating of 83.
The Texans possess arguably the worst rush defense in the league, and could be chewed up by Henry, and maybe Willis.  They are a better bet against the pass, but there may not be much of that this week from the Titans.  If this were just about any other team than the Texans, I would be worried for the Titans' chances, but with the loss of Tannehill, the Texans are now favored, and I just can't see that happening.  Take the Titans to cover.

So far this season the Cowboys' success is largely defense-driven.  That may change with Prescott back, but against a very tough Bears defense, I don't see Dallas as a huge scoring threat this week. For the Bears, their limited success is all about gaining on the ground and limiting the opposition's pass offense.  The Bears have the most rushing yards in the league; their  pair of running backs and a mobile QB in Fields put up a mighty 240 plus yards against the Patriots last week.  The Cowboys can also run the football, but will likely miss key performer Elliott to injury this week.
The Cowboys managed 24 points last week against a weak Lions Defense.  Their pass attack has been poor, but should improve as Prescott gets some reps.  Dallas has been very good at protecting their passer.  Not so the Bears.  Fields has been sacked or pressured the most in the league, part of the explanation for the Bears' woeful pass offense.
Both teams are very tough to score on, 2nd (Dallas) and 6th in the league.  The Bears' defense has improved over their last few games, and it is almost a toss-up as to which defense is better.  There is one huge caveat however, and that is passer pressure.  The Cowboys are tops in the league in sacks while the Bears don't really force passers much at all.
The Cowboys are 10 point favorites, and even with Prescott back I don't think Dallas will move the ball as easily as that line would suggest.  Look for the Bears' defense to slow the game down.  Their offense has been very good at staying on the field (62% last week), if not necessarily scoring points.  By necessity, this game should be run-first from both sides. Watch the Bears keep this one close enough to cover.

The Bucs may be playing at home, but after their recent performances, the reception may not be all that warm. There is a lot of fault finding going on and much of it is directed towards Brady. He certainly hasn’t stood out in recent games, this against pass defenses no better than the Ravens’. Considering how well protected he is, his stats are far from outstanding. While the Bucs are 6th in pass yards, their yards per attempt and per completion are well down in the leagues’ 20th rank. Brady has an average passer rating of just 87 in the last three games. Tampa Bay has no run game to speak of; they’ve only run on 21% of their plays L3, and are last in rushing yards and yards/attempt. Did I mention they are 26th in points scored?

As for the Ravens’ offense, they are 6th in points scored, and solid in converting third downs. While Jackson’s pass numbers are nothing special, he and the Baltimore backs have run very successfully. And while the offense is definitely run-first, the Ravens at least have a pass attack, decent in yards per attempt and completion, if low in total yards.

On defense, the Buccaneers are still 6th in pass yards allowed but have seen a regression in many defensive categories. They have been relatively easy to run on, horrible defending in the red zone, and seen points allowed climb to a high of 21 against the Panthers last week. Their Qb pressure figures have been good this season, but they managed only 1 sack last week.

As the Bucs’ defense has sunk, there has been a definite improvement in The Ravens’ defense in their last three games, especially in the red zone and in Qb pressure (5 sacks last week and an average of 4 L3 games). The are strong against the run should Tampa make the effort, and improving in pass defense.

I don’t foresee a huge improvement in the Buccaneers’ fortunes this week. The ravens’ offense does not match up well against the Buccaneers’ strengths. Both teams have injuries but Tampa really drew the short straw as far as missing starters goes. Gone too is some of that Buccaneers’ mystique. Losing to two of the worst teams back to back, a sullen and ineffective Brady, and nowevery opposing team out to kick them while they are down, doesn’t bode well for the near future. They say bad things come in threes. Look for another poor game from the Bucs. Take the Ravens on Thursday on Thursday night.

The Broncos, the NFL's whipping boys, face the surprising young Jets at home this week.  Fresh off a big victory against the Packers, the Jets are a much improved club, not just since last year, but since the beginning of the season.  They have put close to double the points on the board than the Broncos over the last three weeks, and allowed less. NY is 8th vs 30th on offense in the red zone.  Their run game has improved dramatically this season.  Their defense over the last three weeks has been a match to a tough Broncos' defense, stronger against the run, and improving against the pass.
The Broncos will be without Wilson this week, and have struggled to protect their passer this season.  Their run game is average and has dropped off since the season's start, and they have been prone to turnovers.  The Broncos' strength is their pass defense; they are 5th in yards allowed, first in yards /completion, and have held passers to a minuscule 75 rating. Did I mention very tough on passers, with a 7.09 sack %?  They may have their hands full against the Jets' run game; the Broncos have allowed 130 yards a game/L3 even with an easy ride vs the Chargers' light run offense last week.  
I am on the Jets this week.  The lines are shifting with the news of Wilson's injury. Hop on this one early.

The Week seven matchup between Detroit and Dallas features the return of Dak Prescott.  Rush was an indifferent fill in, and while the Cowboys stepped up their run game, they have struggled to score points, depending on a very tough defense for their present 4-2 record.  They gave up 26 points against the Eagles, but are otherwise close to the top in points allowed.  They have been reasonably tough to run against, but are very hard on the pass, limiting yards and yds/attempt. They have tenacious skills in pressuring the passer and sport an avg. opposing QB rating of just 78.
The Lions, on average, allow more points than the Cowboys have yet scored this year.  Their offense was very potent until Week Six, when they put no points on the board, and saw their offense stats plummet vs the Patriots.  The Cowboys' defense is a tougher match-up, so points for the Lions may again be scarce.  The Lions' defense is worst or close to in most defensive categories.  They have given up massive rush yards and are ugly across the board against the pass.  The Lions O-line has protected Goff well this season, but this may change on Sunday
Prescott probably couldn't have picked a better game to return.  The Lions don't pressure passers well, so he'll have time to kick out the rust.  The Cowboys are favored by just less than a TD.  Take the Cowboys to win going away and cover.

The Commanders are off a rare win, and with Wentz out, have a capable and more mobile replacement in Heinecke. Neither of these two teams put up a lot of points. Washington is 29th, and has averaged just 13 points L3. The Commmanders’ defense has limited teams to 17 points on average, getting good results with strong passer pressure figures and tough red line defense. They have developed their rush attack, running more often and with better success, but haven’t been able to protect their own passer, have a high number of turnovers, and a low passer rating.

Even with Rodgers at the helm, the Packers are not getting the job done on offense. They are still pass -centric, but Rodger’s targets are not of the usual Green Bay standard, and will be in short supply due to injury today. It has been more peckers than Packers, in the bird sense of the word. They are 27th in yards/completion, and middle of the pack in passing yards, low for a pass first offense. Rodgers has been sacked about as often as anyone, and the Packers turn the ball over an unacceptable number of times.

The Packers have the league’s top pas defense, severely limiting yards, and with a sack % of 9.5. This could be more of a run-first game today, the Packers by necessity and the Commanders by design. It is hard to be bullish on this year’s Commanders, but I like their chances today. They will be very tough on a weak Packers’ O line, limiting points again. Take the Commanders with the points today

The Saints and Cardinals, a pair of 2-4 underachievers, meet in Arizona in week 7. The Cardinals’ inability to score against a normally weak Seahawks defense last week was a bit of a surprise, although they are just 22nd in points scored, but no Tds against Seattle? The Saints put up 39 the week before. The Cardinals get Hopkins back, but lose Brown at the same time. Murray’s passer rating has averaged in the 80s and hit 64 last week. He did run well, but overall the Cardinals rush attack is exactly average.

The Saint have not struggled to score points this year, it is preventing them that has been the problem, with the 29th points allowed so far this season. This from a team defense that was expected to be top ten this year. The Saints don’t pressure passers much, but have had 13 sacks to date, and they got to Burrows 3 times last week. Arizona has struggled to protect Murray in the last three games, culminating in a 6 sack game in week 6. The Saints will need to be tougher on him and cause a few turnovers; those have been few a nd far between.

The Saints put up monster numbers with the run last week. Kamara has been hot but he isn’t their only option. They would be wise to stick to the running game. The pass attack was very poor last week. It is still unknown who will start on Thursday, but it probably won’t make that much difference.

The Cardinals have struggled at home, and far more resemble the late 2021 team than the early one. Hopkins is a gain but is not going to be a one-person savior of the Cardinals’ problem offense. The Saints still have injury issues on offense but have managed to put up points anyway. Look for them to win or keep this game close. Take the Saints +1 ½.

A much healthier Chargers team meets a struggling Broncos side on MNF.  Wilson is playing hurt and has not shown well to say the least, stumbling out of week five with an ugly 54 passer rating.  The Broncos are 31st in points scored and 32nd in red zone scoring. They've put up some yards but haven't converted on third downs and have no finish. They are 26th in sacks allowed, including 4 last week.
The Broncos defense is nearly the polar opposite; 4th in points allowed and tops in defending in the red zone.  Their run defense is middle of the pack at 14th in rush yards allowed, and 20th in yds/carry, however that pass defense has been very tough on opposing QBs, allowing an average passer rating of just 78.
The Broncos have not yet faced a top level offense this season, but they will on Monday.  Herbert is just hitting his stride, but the curious thing about the Chargers offense was their run game last week, with a huge jump in rush plays and an astounding yards total.  A balance of run and pass will make the Chargers offense even more potent.  The Chargers have been very successful in protecting Herbert this season, and are tops in sacks allowed.  We will see if they can hold off a tough Denver pass defense with 17 sacks and 51 pressures to date.
The Chargers' main issue is defense; they've given up an average of 27 points a game and are just average defending in the red zone.   They allowed a ton of rushing yards in week 5 against Cleveland, but actually out-rushed the Browns in that game.  Wilson will likely have an easier game as the Chargers aren't huge on QB pressure.
The Broncos may limit the Chargers' offense to some degree, but I don't think they will be able to shut it down. Denver may have a modest improvement on offense against a generous Chargers defense, but the Broncos have a long way to climb back to a respectable level. Injuries are probably more severe on the Broncos side. Of note, the Broncos are just about the worst team in the league for penalties. Take the Chargers, at home, to win and cover.

The Bills face the Chiefs at Arrowhead coming in a 2.5 point favorite.  Sure, it is Mahomes vs. Allen, two "pretty good" passers, but defense will decide this game, and on that note the Bills have a huge edge.  Mahomes can maneuver his way out of most situations, but he may have his hands full on Sunday.  A lot of the Chiefs' defense is just being on the field more than the opposition.  While both pass defenses have solid pass pressure stats, the Bills do it with out blitzing much. Looking at other critical pass defense stats the Bills have a huge advantage, but none more explicit that opposing passer rating; the Bills are first with an avg. passer rating of 67, compared to KC's 105.  Buffalo has given up the least points to date, while the Chiefs struggle to 24th.  Rush defense stats for the Chiefs are curious. Nobody runs much against the Chiefs because they are usually playing catch-up. Last week the Raiders put up 155 yards, more than 70 over the Chiefs' average allowed.  The Chiefs are 31st in defending the red zone at this moment.
Home advantage aside, the Bills have known since last year who stands between them and a Super Bowl ring, and have made the critical steps on defense to match up very well against KC.  Take the Bills to win and cover.

The 49ers meet the run-happy Atlanta Falcons at home in week 6.  The Falcons run more than just about anyone and have had some success this season.  They are 4th in rushing yards, 8th in yards/attempt and 4th in rushing first downs.  They'd better be good as it is the only game in town.  The Falcons' pass attack is minimal; 30th in yards and completion %, with a 78 average passer rating.  Mariota has been sacked 12 times, 5 last week alone, with as many picks as TDs to date.  
The 49ers' defense are the Falcons' worst nightmare, with or without Bosa.  They've allowed the least rushing yards and yds/att. Not to mention that they crush pass offenses, are 1st in sack% and hold passers to a 72 rating.  Mariota and the Falcons' offense is likely in for a tough day.
The Falcons middling defense face a very tough 49ers' run game and an improving Garoppolo. He threw for 253 yards, 2 TDs and a 109 rating last week, and now faces an Atlanta pass defense that had no sacks in week 5.  This could be Garoppolo's day to shine.
I am absolutely all in on the 49ers this week.  Run, don't walk,and jump on SF to win and cover.

Will it be one step forward and two steps back, or has Fields made a legitimate step as a developing QB? The Bears have been a run-first offense to date, but Fields had his first good start of the season vs the Vikings, with personal highs in passing yards, completion %, and a passer rating of 118. He also ran successfully. The Bears’ passing offense until last week left much to be desired. The run game was limited last week but has been a strength, fifth in the league in yards to date, with Herbert, Montgomery and Fields all as viable options.

The Commanders’ offense is almost entirely about the pass; their run game is virtual nonexistent, which is a shame as the Bears struggle vs the run. Wentz threw for a ton of yards against the Titans last week, but results have been mixed in other games. He has been sacked 20 times this season and has thrown 6 interceptions to date, with just an 86 average passer rating.

The Commanders’ defense is middle of the pack to date against the run, and poor against the pass. The two teams are roughly equal in QB pressure, although the Commanders have more sacks. Washington doesn’t force very many turnovers, with just 1 interception to date. Other than last week against Cousins, the Bears’ pass offense has been impressive; 5 interceptions to date, 9th in pass yards allowed while limiting opposing passers to an 82 passer rating this season.

No one expected much of the Bears this year. They are undefeated at home, and for them it is definitely a case of the glass half full so far. More was expected of the Commanders, and there is turmoil around Wentz’s play in particular. Heads could roll if the Commanders lose this game. I am on the side of the young never-say-die Bears this week. Look for another home victory on TNF. 9*!

Based on past results, a  win should be in cards for the Chiefs today.  Kansas City's offense is a different beast this year; equally competent, but much more time-consuming, with more short targets for Mahomes, and a well developed running game.  The Chiefs have been great in the red zone, and with the exception of last week, Mahomes has had solid protection.  Even against that tough Buccaneers pass offense, Mahomes was a wizard in avoidance, and had great success.  At home at Arrowhead, and against another AFC West opponent, I like their chances.  On defense, they have been great against the run, which is important against a Raiders' team who are having good success on the ground.  The KC pass defense has given up yards, a ton of them facing Brady last week, but they have managed solid passer pressure, and are 7th in sacks, against a Raiders' O-line with mixed success.
Carr has not flourished this year for the Raiders with an 83.4 average passer rating. Running back Josh Jacobs has been a bit of a revelation, especially last week. As noted, the Chiefs have been dominant against the run, and against a high-scoring Chiefs offense, the Raiders may not have the same opportunity to run so consistently. On defense, the Raiders haven't been big on QB pressure, with just 5 sacks, and are very poor to date defending in the red zone.  They are also the second most penalized team at the moment.
I like the Chiefs chances today.  Look for another big game from Mahomes et al, and watch them win and cover.

The Eagles, looking for 5-0, are on the road facing the Cardinals. Murray and the Cardinals looked better in Week four, but face MUCH stiffer competition this week. The Cardinals losing 3 starters from their O-line to injury against the league’s toughest pass rush is hardly ideal.

The Eagles are better in almost every offensive and defensive category when compared to the Cardinals, and any categories where the Eagles showed weakness (as in Week one points allowed) they have addressed. They have controlled play in their games, are very good in the Red zone on both sides of the ball, and have been adaptable. Facing a tough pass rush last week, the Eagles produced monster yardage with the run game.

The most telling category for me is quarterback pressure. The Eagles, as noted, are first in sacks, and the Cardinals are 32nd. Allowing Hurts and Philadelphia’s very fine pass offense that kind of freedom is very dangerous. Against a stout Eagles defense, I don’t see Murray or the Arizona run offense having a comfortable game. Philadelphia at 6-0 seems like a distinct possibility. Take the Eagles to win and cover.

The 3-1 Cowboys face the 2-2 Rams in LA, with the usual huge hooplah surrounding these two teams. Dallas is a 5 1/2 point underdog. Is this the week that Stafford starts to show his worth in 2022? Against a very tough Dallas pass defense, I have my doubts. The Rams are 29th in points scored, averaging less than the Cowboys sans Dak. Cooper Rush is 15 points higher in average QB rating, has been sacked just 4 times, and has yet to give up a pick. Stafford has been sacked 16 times and has 6 interceptions to date. Add to that an unwillingness to throw to more than 2 receivers.

The Cowboys’ defense struggles against the run, but the Rams hardly have a running game, and are sitting 30th in rushing yards. The Cowboys are top five in QB pressure, and 2nd in fewest yards per pass attempt. It could be more of the same for Stafford this week, after being pushed around by the 49ers last week. The Rams’ O-line has multiple injury issues at the moment.

Can the Dallas Cowboys offense produce points against the Rams? First off, they may not need that many. They have solid options at running back with Pollard and Elliott, averaging over 100yds a game. Rush now has a few games under his bet and has shown marked improvement. He threw for 223 yards and a 107 QB rating last week, not bad for a back up. There are flaws in this version of the Rams, and injuries aren’t helping. I am on the Cowboys and the Cowboys’ defense on Sunday. Take them at +5.5, although an outright win would not surprise me. 9*!

The 30th and 31st-best scoring offenses meet for the fifth week of Thursday Night Football.  Injuries have compromised both teams' running games, Wilson is sore, and the Colts defense has take a pair of hits.  Is Ryan starting to look more comfortable?  He was better last week, but that was against arguably the worst team in pass defense.  The Colts' offensive line has struggled and could be worse this week.  Ryan has been sacked at the league maximum, with five interceptions and a ton of fumbles to date.  

The Broncos have been tough on passers; 5th in pass yards allowed, 2nd in passing TDs allowed, and with strong QB pressure, 6th in sacks. Their rush defense broke down inexplicably last week, but the Colts' rush attack has been surprisingly unimpressive to date, and now is missing Taylor.  Wilson is a trooper, and looked much better last week, finishing with a very high passer rating.  The Colts are not such a threat to pressure Wilson, and he is also far more mobile than Ryan.  The Broncos at least have a plan B for a rush attack, and if anyone should be worried about fumbles, it is the Colts.

A line of -3 is available for Denver, and anything under that is a bonus.  I am on the Broncos to bounce back, win and cover.

The Commanders, everyone’s latest whipping boys take on the Cowboys, already damned and redeemed this season. The Cowboys will likely start Cooper Rush again. Rush has been competent, if not at all spectacular, well protected by the Cowboys’ O-line, and has great receivers, including a returning Michael Gallup. Wentz has been a sitting duck behind an ineffective Washington O-line. Sacked as often as Burrows, no one has faced more QB pressure or the blitz than Wentz. Tough conditions to excel under. Sacked 9 times last week, the Commanders’ passing yards dropped by 100 yards from week two. Facing the Cowboys’ top of the line pass defense, it will likely be another long day for Wentz. Adding an indifferent run game, averaging just 86 yards a game, doesn’t aid the overall Commanders’ offense.

The Dallas run defense has not been as effective, allowing 130+ yds an attempt and nearly 5 yds per carry. The Giants ran for 167 yards last week. The overall defense has been very effective, limiting teams to just 17+ points a game to date.

The Cowboys have a pair of good running backs and a top 11 run game. The Commanders’ defense have not handled the run nor the pass well to date. Look for a good situation for Pollard and Elliott. It should also be Rush’s best opportunity for a breakthrough week. I see the Cowboys seriously limiting Wentz and the Commander’s offense, and scoring enough to both win and cover on Sunday.

The Browns, a small favorite, face the 1-2 Falcons at home in week 4. Brissett has looked pretty sharp as a stand-in, with a healthy 10th rated QB ranking and a solid performance last week. He had 2 Tds, 0 interceptions and a 109 passer rating in week 3, not to mention a 74% completion rate in his last two games. Then there is Chubb, and don’t forget about Hunt, making a very tough 1-2 punch on the top running game in the league. The Browns’ offense have been the best in the league in time of possession, and they don’t turn the ball over very often. The Falcons have been turnover-prone to date.

The Falcons have put up almost as many points as the Browns. Mariota had a solid game in week three, and has also run the ball well, but has been sacked more than average, and has already thrown 3 picks. The Falcons’ Patterson put up huge numbers on the run last week, and has been a surprise standout so far, but is questionable with a knee injury for week four. Other than Mariota, Patterson IS the Falcons running game. He is a huge loss if his play is compromised.

All eyes were on the Browns’ defense after week two’s catastrophic ending. They played much better in week three, and have been tough against the run, although were a bit sloppy last week. They have also been tough on opposing passers, although injuries will play a role in that regard this Sunday.

The Falcons defense is one of the worst in the league in a number of defensive categories, including points, total yards, and passing yards. They are just mid-pack in rushing categories, and while they are solid in QB pressure, the Browns’ O-line has protected Brissett well.

Look for another solid game from Brissett, and the Browns’ rush game to again dominate. If Patterson is compromised, things could go badly for the Falcons. Take the Browns to win.

The Vikings and Saints travel to London, each with potentially serious holes in the line-up due to injuries.  The Vikings will have Cousins at QB, and he could be the difference maker today. We could see a bounce-back game from Jefferson but Cousins has plenty of targets if the Saints key on JJ as other teams have lately. The Saints have a huge butcher's bill and could be down to Dalton at QB.  Even if Winston plays there  are huge questions around his performances lately, with a 79 average passer rating and more interceptions than TDs to date. Both top running backs are questionable for Sunday.

On defense, neither team has excelled.  The Vikings have given up yards but not points, the Saints have been the reverse.  The Saints to date have been weaker against the run, and don't pressure the passer effectively.  The Vikings O-line has protected Cousins well, and not so for the Saints.

I am on the Vikings today.  They have fared well in London in previous games.  I expect them to win and cover on Sunday.

Thursday night Football week 4 is a tough call, especially considering the question marks around Tua and a number of other Dolphins. Both teams are pass-centric to the extreme. The Dolphins are 31st in rush offense. The Bengals have a solid RB in Mixon but he just hasn’t been used as much as might be expected. The Dolphins’ defense has been top ten vs the run, while the Bengals rush defense has struggled and could be exploited.

Tua, if available, has excelled this year and has largely been well protected. The Dolphins have great receivers, and when healthy should compete with any team.   Burrow has been pressured and sacked on far too many occasions to date. The Bengals won’t have as easy a time of it this week as they did vs the Jets. I expect Miami to take it to Burrow, and all of that pressure comes at a price.

The Dolphins defense came up big on numerous occasions vs the Bills. I expect a big game from them. I am not confident that the Bengals are out of the woods yet or that their offensive line can stand up to Miami. Burrow better have his dancing shoes on. Expect a close game but take the Dolphins to cover.  9*!

The 1-1 Cowboys face off with the 2-0 Giants in a highly touted MNF game. Sorry Giants, but I am not sure that 3-0 is a real possibility. First off, I am not sold on Jones nor the Giants ability to protect him on Monday. Jones was well under 200 yds passing, with very short yds/comp and was sacked multiple time. This against 2 relatively poor pass attacks. The Cowboys’ pass defense has been formidable, top 5 in most categories, and a passer nightmare in both games. The Giants also saw the run game (Barkley) fall off significantly in week two after a fine and much publicized effort in Week one against a weak defense. The Cowboys’ rush defense was much better in week two, holding Mixon and the Bengals to 89 yards.

On defense the Giants have not really impressed. The run defense struggled against the Titans as expected but allowed nearly 120 yds against Carolina. They are 30th in yards per completion, again vs. two sub-par passers.

Perhaps the biggest question in this game surrounds the Dallas offense after the loss of Prescott. The Cowboys have a very good two pronged running attack. Rush threw for more yards and had a higher passer rating than Jones in week two. He has been well protected and has brilliant targets available. Even with injury returns, the Giants will likely struggle to get to Rush this week. The rest of the Dallas team will have Rush in about in as good a position to succeed as could be hoped for.

The Giants are a small favorite. Take the Cowboys to steal this one on the road.

The Falcons have held their own against 2 tough opponents, scoring 26 and 27 points and covering in both games.  They have a solid rush offense to date, and Mariota has put them in a position to win both games.  The 1-1 Seahawks were lucky to win their first game and lost badly last week.  They are close to the bottom in many offensive categories, including time of possession and points scored.  They have no run game to speak of.  Geno Smith has been accurate but unable to generate points or yards.
Neither team has defended well against the pass.  Seattle has given up big yards against the run.  Home team or not, I just can't Seattle generating  enough points or defending well enough against a fairly dynamic Falcons offense.  Take the Falcons to steal this one.  9*!

It was just the one quarter... Like the old joke, the Ravens’ 4th quarter soured a fine game from Lamar Jackson. And yes, the Patriots’ won last week, but against a Steelers team with not much of an offense. The Patriots do not have the receivers, nor can Jones run and gun with Jackson. Not to mention, the Ravens blitz and Jones is very susceptible. Both teams have been solid vs. the run, but NE hasn’t faced a QB who can scramble like Jackson. The Ravens lack of rushing offense, other than Jackson, is a concern, but that may change today.  New England does have two solid running backs.

Jackson’s QB rating is right up there, Jones is 18th. Jackson has thrown just 1 interception; Jones 2. Neither passer was sacked last game. NE may be missing their top receiver in this game, a situation they can ill afford.

I am wagering on the Ravens this week and expect them to bounce back from their ugly loss in week two.  I also expect the Ravens' defense to be on their very best behavior and make the necessary adjustments, and had success backing the Browns' defense to respond this week.  Jones has yet to prove himself this year; Jackson will be the game breaker.  The line has dropped below a field goal.  Jump on the Ravens to win and cover.

The 2-0 Chiefs face a struggling Colts team in Indianapolis on Sunday. The Colts game in week two could hardly have gone worse, but the line has drifted in the Colts’ favor. I am unsure why. KC and Patrick Mahomes have looked very good in their opening two games. Mahomes has adapted comfortably to his new circumstances, and we are seeing some timely running from this pass-centric offense. Mahomes has had great protection, hasn’t thrown an interception, and has a monster QB rating.

The Colts’ offense has been a shambles, and were shut out last week. Taylor only carried the ball 9 times, which is incomprehensible. Ryan does not look settled, and has been very poor under pressure, of which there has been lots as the Colts’ O-line has struggled. Ryan threw 3 interceptions, was sacked multiple times, and ended with a miserable 34 passer rating. He may benefit from the return of a quality target, but that is still an unknown.

Kc did not defend well vs the pass last week but faced a much tougher opponent in the Chargers. They have been more successful applying pressure to the passer than the Colts, but haven’t faced a top running back like Taylor this year, so will need to work to contain him.

The Colts would have to make a huge adjustment to come within a TD of the Chiefs and there really is no sign of that in week three. To add to their problems, the Colts will miss a pair of key people on defense this week. I am on KC to win and cover on the road on Sunday.

The Eagles collectively improved from week 1, and manhandled the Vikings in a complete game winning effort. Hurts looked poised and produced in the air and, of course, on the ground. The Eagles’ running game is on fire with Sanders averaging 88 yds a game and 5.9 yds/carry. Hurts has “chipped in” with 147 yards to date, ahead of all passers. On defense, they limited the Vikings’ run game to 62 yds and all but shut down the highly touted Jefferson in the air. The Vikings’ offense was on the field less than 40% of the time.

The Commanders lost to Detroit, but Wentz made it interesting in the second half. He has thrown for over 300 yards in the first two games, but also had 3 interceptions and was sacked 6 times to date. Wentz had better be good as Washington has had no appreciable running game to date. The Commanders’ defense has struggled against the run, at or near the bottom in yds and yds/carry, and giving up 191 yards to the Lions last week. They’ve also given up considerably more yards in the air than the Eagles.

I am big on the Eagles this year, but was concerned with their defensive play in Week one. Week two showed real improvement against a possible play-off team. There is much talk about a revenge game for Wentz this week. That sentiment goes both ways as Russell Wilson found out in his first game back in Seattle. Take the Eagles to win and cover. 9*!

Thursday Night Football brings you an odd match-up this week featuring a team that can’t score vs a team the apparently can’t defend. We have heard about the Browns’ defensive debacle endlessly, but there were high points in that game for the Browns. Jacoby Brissett looked pretty good, and significantly better than the previous week. He was accurate, threw for 221 yds, had a passer rating of 98.5, and was protected well by the Browns’ O line. The Browns’ rush attack was overpowering, and is first in the league, with 184 yds last week and a potent two pronged attack from Chubb and Hunt. The Steelers have yet to face a good running team, but are still 23rd in yards allowed. They are also 30th in passing yards allowed, still missing Watt, and had zero sacks last week.

The Browns are missing key people on defense, which will make a difference, but less so against the Steelers. Trubisky has not been effective, and if anything was worse last week. He is 28th in passing yards, and 26th in QB rating. He was sacked three times last week and has not looked good handling pressure. The Steelers have not mounted a real run game yet, which leads one to wonder what have they been doing on offense? They haven’t had the ball much is the correct response, and are 30th in offensive time of possession.

I expect Cleveland to run up some points, and the defense to be on their best behavior, especially at home. Take the Browns to win and cover.

The Vikings off a hug win against the Packers, looked solid on both offense and defense. Admittedly this was not a vintage game from Rogers, but give the Vikings some credit; they sacked him 4 times, and held Rogers to a 74.7 QB rating. On offense, Cousins, Jefferson, and Cook all looked terrific. Cousins was accurate, and ran up 269 passing yds with 2 TDs and a 118 QB rating.

The Eagles put up a bunch of points but were hardly in control against a team much weaker than the Vikings. Hurts struggled in the air but was a force on the ground. The Eagles’ run game is a force to be reckoned with, and it isn’t just Hurts. The Eagles have a very good offensive line, and a solid running back in Sanders. The Eagles cannot afford to expose Hurts to the same degree very often.

The Eagles’ defense was a concern. They were just OK vs. Gough and the pass, but were very poor vs. the run. As talented as it is the defense is, did not look composed or effective. Can they improve significantly in a week? It seems a tall order. I like the Eagles this year, but just not yet. Take the Vikings to cover.

It is the Chargers and the Chiefs in a barn burner of a match-up on TNF.  Mahomes and the Chiefs overpowered the Cardinals over 3 quarters, then coasted home while resting starters, which is significant considering the quick turn-around in Week Two.  The Chargers prevailed in a much closer match-up vs the Raiders, and were all out until the last series.
Mahomes and Herbert are expected to be the story, and both were superb in Week One.  While this match will likely be pass-focused, it is the the success or failure of the respective run games which may play a dominant roll.  The success of Edwards-Helaire as a rusher and a receiver, and the emergence of  rookie Pacheco may be significant this week.  Mahomes wasn't sacked in Week one, but  the Chargers' new Mack-Bosa led pass rush had 6 sacks in week one. Not to underestimate that duo, and Mahomes has too many options to allow that kind of pressure, but he likely won't emerge this week unscathed. The Chargers' defense barely face a run game (just 13 plays) and still allowed a rushing yards-against average of nearly 5 yards.   On offense the Chargers' run game was most unimpressive, averaging under 3 yds a carry over 31 plays.
On Defense, the Chiefs Sacked Murray three times, and limited the Cardinals on the ground and in the air.  Like Mahomes, Herbert was not sacked in week one, but I expect him to have a much rougher ride this time around.  He likely will be without Allen, his favorite target in week one.
It is hard to doubt the Chiefs after such a dominant victory in their first game. Mahomes seemed to revel in so many receiving options in week one, and he, of course still has Kelce as a go to. they looked incredibly prepared.  The loss of Allen and the lack of a run game will be the difference on Thursday.  Take the Chiefs to win and cover.

For the Broncos, it is kind of like starting school with the brand new outfit; new QB, new coach and new plan for the offense. Same old defense, which is a good thing. Rated well into the top 10, the Broncos’ defense allowed the third lowest points last year. They were particularly good against the pass, and in the red zone, but look for a new emphasis on bringing pressure to quarterbacks this year. The Broncos on offense have a powerful rushing duo in Williams and Gordon, and fine receivers. What remains to be seen is how much of an addition Wilson can be to take the Broncos to the next step and how quickly he can do it.

Much is made in the media about the Seahawks and the return of Wilson. It will be very surprising if the Seahawks thrive rather than flounder this year, and the Broncos will be a very tough opening match. As much as the Seahawks know Russell Wilson, Wilson the playmaker, also knows the Seahawks. Emotions aside, this might be the very best place for Wilson and the Broncos to start.

On offense, Seattle hopes that RB force Penny will continue as he finished last year. It is eight years since Geno Smith played as a starting quarterback, so no great expectations there. Smith did not thrive under pressure last year, and while still has some very fine targets, he is a big step back on QB for the Seahawks this year.

Look for the tough Broncos defense to hold things together early and pressure Smith, and possibly more of a running game early from the Broncos. Wilson knows why he is there, is a consummate professional and competitor, and WILL establish a pass attack. Projected scores for this match vary wildly from a grudge win by a vengeful Seattle squad to a Broncos blowout. I expect something in the middle. Take Denver to win and cover. 9*!

What to think of the Cardinals this year?  The Cardinals didn't make a ton of changes in the off season  They face a tough early schedule, and there is definitely friction around Kyler Murray. The Cardinals have a mediocre offensive line and will be missing Hopkins for the first six games as well as 2 other key targets injured or questionable..  Their day one opponent probably couldn't be worse.  Mahomes and the Chiefs don't fail on season openers, and are projected to be in the elite in the league again this year. While they lost Hill, they still have Kelce, and have added key receivers for a new look KC pass attack.  One thing that hasn't changed is the O-line, and that is a good thing.  It served Mahomes very well last year.

The Cardinals started last season as a very good defensive team, but that changed by the end of the season.  The lost some key people on defense and haven't appeared to replace them. The Cardinals have a pretty serious injury bill at the moment.  They are not especially good vs the run, so we might just see more running game from the Chiefs on Sunday.

Mahomes has something to prove after a difficult (for him) year in 2021.  He has by all reports, prepared very well, and the KC offense looked good in preseason.  Take the Chiefs to win and cover on Sunday. 9*!

Have the Eagles truly landed? Well, I am on Hurts and the Eagles until I see otherwise.  The Eagles have done much to bolster the team in the off season.  AJ Brown might not even be the most significant addition as they have significantly added to the defense through free agency and the draft.  Hurts needs to take that step forward this season and the Eagles brain trust has put him in the best possible position to make that step.  The Eagles now have a trio of top targets for Hurts, a very strong O-line and a dominant run game to boot. Did I mention a top 5 or 6 defense?

Run is a bit of a dirty word for the Lions.  They don't have an established run game, and they likely wont defend the run much better than last year.  Geoff, like Hurts, needs to make the next step, but the Lions, while improved, don't have the personnel to fully support him.  Their offensive line was expected to be a bright spot this year, but the injury bug has struck already.  While it likely won't be the rout we say last year, I expect the Eagles to win and cover.

The Bills face the Rams on the road in what is touted as a possible prequel to this year's Super Bowl.  So what have these teams done lately? The Bills who were solid on both sides of the ball, upgraded on defense by adding Von Miller and others to an already impressive and well run defense.  What did the Rams do? certainly, they lost more than they gained.The Rams had their issues on defense last year, especially early in the season and were never much better than average over the season.  I am not convinced that the Rams won't struggle early again.

There is no doubting Stafford's abilities, but he doesn't come without a down side.  He threw more interceptions than any one last year, and he doesn't exactly spread the ball around.  He gets sacked a not inconsiderable number of times, and there are still some questions around his elbow. Allen and his running ability, and Von Miller, who will likely be in Stafford's face a lot on Thursday ,will be the difference-makers in this game.

The Bills are hungrier and with more to prove.  On the road or no, take the Bills to win and cover. 9*!

Rams/Bengals

Burrow and Stafford are a given; two dominant passers peaking at the right time, both with superlative targets. Lets look at the defenses, which is where this game will be decided. There are many recent positive improvements for the Rams defense; yards against and 3rd down conversions against are down, and they have been dominant in controlling time of possession. They have been tough on quarterbacks, but they are still only 21st in passing yards allowed. Burrow has been remarkably effective in spite of horrible O-line performance this season. I think the Rams defense will cramp his style but no one has been able to shut him down lately. Stafford may have his hands full as well. The Bengals defense is tough against the run but has been doing the job against the pass as well. They had 4 sacks against Mahomes last week, and pretty well shut down the Chiefs’ fierce pass attack in the second half last time out. They have only given up an average of 19 points a game in their last three against tough competition. The Rams are favored but the Bengals have been defying odds all season. This game will be close likely decided by a single field goal. Take the Bengals to surprise and cover once again.

The odds have reached a point where Cincinnati seems like a good option. It is a concern that the Chiefs can’t hold an opposing offense, in particular a passing offense, at bay. Burrow and Mahomes have been equally dynamic of late. Burrow will not face the kind of pressure he has endured in either of the last two weeks. The Chiefs have one of the worst defenses in terms of sacks in the league. The Bengals have already beaten the Chiefs in a meaningful game within the last 4 weeks, with great success in the air. A blowout by the Chiefs is highly unlikely. If this game goes as expected, it will likely be decided on one scoring drive or in overtime. I can see the Chiefs up to one touchdown, but after that, I am banking on the Bengals.

Bills face the Chiefs on Divisional game day. Let us get to the point, and make this short but sweet. Bills will win, and they will have their defense to thank. Two super-hot QBs face off, both in prime form. Mahomes has slightly better passing stats, but Allen is better protected and more of a running threat. I get that Mahomes can be a game changer, but Allen is no slouch in that department either. Give a slight nod to the Chiefs’ passing offense, if you will, but after than it is all about the Bills. They are better on both sides of the ball in the red zone, are 6th on avg. in the major rushing categories, and far superior on defense.

There was a stretch when the Chiefs held the opposition to under two touchdowns on defense, but that has not been the case lately. The Bills have the best defense against the run, and are first in too many categories to list here. The Bills’ O-line has been terrific this year, and their defense has savaged opposing Qbs at an average of 5+ over the last three games.  I really don't see Kansas City matching up well here. Yes, the Chiefs are at home this week but the Bills are playing like a team on a mission right now. Bills to cover, and very likely win.

The high-flying Bengals, led by star QB Joe Burrow, face a formidable ground-dwelling Titans team that likely features the return of the King, Derrick Henry. Burrow has put up the big numbers in spite of being sacked more than just about any QB in the league. The Titans’ defense sit 25th in passing yards given up, however they are much better in points allowed in the air (7th) and passing first downs. They will get to Burrow, but that hasn’t seemed to matter to his performance. The Bengals’ run defense, 7th for the season, has struggled lately, giving up 150+ yards on average in their last three games.

While this game could be close, I favor the Titans for several reasons. Running under all of the hype around the return of Henry, Tannehill has put together some good outings in his last games. The Bengals’ pass defense is well below average and their defensive line is seriously compromised by injuries. The Titans will have more of a flexible offense on Saturday, and have had very good success in the red zone. The Bengals have a very solid running back in Joe Mixon, but don’t use him much and the Titans’ run defense is very very tough. The Titans will struggle to contain Burrow and Co., but they don’t give up a lot of points and are 4th in red-zone defense. The Titans are healthy and well rested. The best defense against Burrow is to keep him off the field. I think the Titans will establish a run game against the Bengals and slow this game down. A healthy Henry would just be the icing on the cake. Look for the Titans to win and cover.

The Cardinals have been on a downward trend, losing 4 of 5, scoring less points and allowing considerably more over the last month. There is no defensive category where they have shown anything but a slide. Things are not much better on offense with far less passing yards, and far poorer results in the red zone. That is a lot of ship to right coming into the wildcard weekend. They are a good road team and beat the Cowboys on the road, but lets not forget that they lost badly on the road to the Lions.

The Rams have won 4 of 5, losing narrowly to the 49ers last week. Well, don’t they always lose to the 49ers? Much has been and should be made of Stafford’s ability to turn the ball over. He faced formidable pressure from the 49ers’ defense and was sacked 5 times. The Cardinals will not exert that kind of pressure on Stafford this week. The Rams’ defense are tough on the run, and very good at getting to the quarterback. They give up yards against the pass, but not necessarily points. They are much better in the red zone of late. They beat Arizona by 7 last time out. I don’t think it will be much different this week.

The Rams have the stars who can excel, Stafford being one of them. This is a critical game for some very big Rams reputations. I am wagering for LA to step up here. Take the Rams to win and cover.

The Chiefs crushed the Steelers just three weeks ago, winning by 26. The Steelers squeaked into the playoffs by the slimmest of margins, and all the talk about no pressure on the Steelers in this game doesn’t hide the fact that the Chiefs are a much better team with a recent history of playoff success.

The Steelers’ claim to fame is their pass defense, in particular Qb pressure, pass yards allowed and yards per attempt. That said, it is odd that against the good pass-first offenses they have played (Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers and Vikings) , all were losses and some by wide margins. As far as sacks go, the Chiefs are third in the league in protecting their QB, allowing just 1 sack per week over their last three games. TJ Watt was held in control in their last meeting, a rare occasion.

The Steelers are dead last against the run. Even though the Chiefs are best known as a pass-first offense, they have far greater balance this year and can run the ball very effectively. Mahomes will do whatever is needed under the circumstances to win a game. He is still one of the best rushing Qbs in the business.

The Chiefs’ defense gives up the eighth least points allowed, which is surprising as there is no one area in which they excel. They are healthy now, and we need to be reminded that they have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to under two Tds. The Steelers just don’t put many points on the board. With a very poor run game and a very average pass offense, I don’t expect them to surprise anyone on Sunday. Take the Chiefs to win and cover.

The Patriots face the Bills for a chance to move on, but looking carefully at the two teams’ last month’s performances, it seems unlikely that they can or will win this game. There has been a significant regression in the Patriots’ defensive performance, especially in the run, an aspect of the game that will likely figure prominently on a very cold day in Buffalo. Points allowed are way up, their ability to pressure QBs has declined, and their red zone defense has declined. This against a Bills team with the third highest points for. For a generally pass-first offense, the Bills have now passed the Patriots in rushing yards and rush yards/attempt. Allen has had excellent protection three weeks in a row.

As much as the Patriots’ defense has declined, the Bills’ defensive effort has soared. First in points allowed, dominant in all pass defense categories, they have also shown huge improvement in rush defense.

The Bills are very healthy; not so the Patriots, with numerous starters banged up. The Bills are on a roll and Allen is in good form. There are some questions around Patriots’ QB Jones lately, and the rookie QB faces a very tough defense in cold play-off conditions. Belichick or no, the Bills will win and cover..

The Raiders, off an inspiring win last week, squeaked into the playoffs, and now face a rested Bengals team. The pass-first Bengals offense comes in with Burrow at his peak, some solid receiving options, and a top 5 running back, a dual threat, who they probably under-use on the ground. Burrow is accurate, explosive and does not turn the ball over. The only issue with Burrow is the lack of protection he gets. The Bengals defense is middle of the pack. Their strengths are against the run, they give up yards but not necessarily points against the pass, and they can be effective in pressuring the QB. They have a definite advantage in turnovers, both on offense and defense.

The Raiders have presented a much more balanced attack in their last few games and it has been working for them. Carr might be playing second to Burrow, but his stats speak for themselves. The Raiders have relied much more on their running game lately, and have a good running back, also a twin threat, in Jacobs. On defense, the Raiders have given up a ton of points this season, but that has declined outside of last week. They have tightened up against the run, but do struggle against a strong pass-first offense such as the Bengals. The Raiders’ red zone defense is also an issue.

The Bengals beat the Raiders handily on the road earlier in the season. Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game in a very long time, so they are due. The Raiders did not have the benefit of a week off, and are on the road. I am wagering that the Bengals, a real offensive powerhouse in top form, to outscore the Raiders. Cincinnati to win and cover.

The Saints are still in the playoff picture and the Falcons aren’t. All the talk of the Falcons as spoilers is nothing like the impetus of still playing for the post season. This and the Saints’ absolutely dominant defense, arguably the best against the run and hugely improved vs the pass of late, will push the Saints past the Falcons.

As much as the Saints defense has improved, the Falcons’ defense has regressed. They are bottom 6 in points allowed, red zone defense, and 32nd and slipping in Qb sacks. They allowed 175 yards rushing over their last three games. Their offense is also trending down, averaging just 16 points scored over their last three games. Ryan has been sacked 37 times, including 5 last week.

Will the Saints cover? They bumped their points-for up to 18 last week. Hill should have plenty of protection, and did get something going with two of his receivers, Kamara and Callaway. He is a big threat to run and the Falcons don’t fare well against a QB who can run. The Saints are healthier than they have been, and have a solid rush attack, possibly including Ingram as well as Kamara. While I am not expecting a blow-out, I am wagering on the Saints to cover as well as win.

The Titans face the Texans in a key game for their play off hopes. They are playing for a bye week, and with their “ultra RB’ Henry near a return, it would be very significant win. The Titans will leave nothing to chance with the memory of a very poor effort against the Texans still strong.

The Titans defense was absolutely formidable last week, holding Miami to 3 points. They are healthier, with all defensive categories markedly improved over the last three weeks. The Texans’ defense is particularly poor vs. the run; last in yards allowed and 2nd last in rush tds allowed. This kind of performance is obviously a very poor match with the Titans’ strengths. Even without Henry, the Titans’ run-first offense has been taking great strides, averaging 163 yards a game in their last three starts.

Tannehill will remember his last game vs Houston as he was sacked 7 times. The Texans don’t generally apply that much pressure. Look for the Tennessee O-line to do a better job of protection, with Tannehill only throwing as needed. Rookie David Mills appears to be settling in with the Texans, but will likely face intense pressure on game day.

I am wary of a wide spreads in week 18, but I think the Titans will be all in until the end on this one. Who knows what kind of effort to expect from the Texans? I am confident that the Titans will win and cover on Sunday.

Vikings/Packers

I released this wager early and have a very favorable line personally. I still do really like this play though. 

The Vikes are down and out after last weekend's 30-23 loss to LA. Kirk Cousins had 315 yards and a TD, but Cousins is now out because of COVID protocol. Sean Mannion is the backup and I just can see him stepping up on such short notice and being productive whatsoever.

Green Bay is now in the drivers seat in the NFC and this is an opportunity that I expect Aaron Rogers and company to take advantage of. The Packers are just a game up on Dallas, who owns the tiebreaker, and the Rams and Bucs are also just behind. 

Also note, Minnesota won't have TE and offensive star Adam Thelien playing either. This one is a "no brainer." Lay the points. 8* PACKERS

Comparing a team’s stats in their last few games to their seasons’ average can be informing. Looking at the Panthers’ defensive numbers, I’d say they’ve already broken out the golf clubs. The Panthers’ rush defense has not been up to much all season, but the pass defense was solid. In their past few games, their effectiveness has plummeted, which is good new for the Saints. The Saints have a running game with Kamara back and Hill at QB, but they need all the help they can get on pass offense. This will be as complete a lineup as the Saints have had in some time, so it will be interesting to see if they can put up more than 14 points, which is what they have averaged lately. The Saints defense has yet to stumble this year; top of the heap in red zone defense, great rushing defense and improving pass defense. Carolina doesn’t put up many points on the board, and again, that number has also tanked lately. The QB position has been an adventure, and their rushing yards are in decline.

This is a rare opportunity for the Saints to put some points on the board, and help out their dwindling chances for a wild card spot. It is really a meaningless game for the Panthers other than for draft position, and an away game at that. I believe the Saints formidable defense will stymie the Panthers’ suspect offense. Take the Saints to win and cover.

The Bills are running hot and are fairly healthy, which is saying a lot. Allen is the QB of the moment with his fine performance last week, and he is up against a Falcons pass defense that is 23rd in yards allowed and 32nd in sacks. Giving Allen that kind of friendly environment will likely lead to a high total. The Falcons’ run defense is also on the average side, allowing more than 125 yds over their last three games. The Bills have averaged 135 rushing yards over their last three games, even though they are a pass-first offense. Singletary and Allen give the Bills much more flexibility in their running game.

The Falcons aren’t scoring a ton of points, and they struggle badly against good teams. I remember vividly their 25 -0 loss to the Patriots, who the Bills beat up on last week.  Atlanta's run game is worst in the league and sinking fast. Ryan is a competent QB, but he will be up against the league’s best pass defense, both in yards and yards/attempt.

The Falcons have covid issues, much more at the moment than the Bills. Atlanta has been blown out more than a couple of times this year. Sunday’s game might just be one more nail in the playoff coffin.

The points are high but I believe the Bills will win and cover.

The Raiders face the Colts in a crucial game with both teams hit with some severity by covid. QB Wentz could be out for the Colts, which is not quite such a loss in the Colts’ run-first offense. Wentz was solid last week, but many weeks Wentz is not as prominent. Untested rookie Sam Ehlinger will likely replace him. The Colts’ O line has protected their passer effectively this year. One wrinkle in the mix is that Ehlinger is much more of a run threat than Wentz.

Can the Colts still win and cover? No one has stopped Jonathon Taylor, and while Vegas has shown improvement in rush defense, they have not faced anyone like him. Of note, the Raiders are the very worst red-zone defenders in the NFL. The Raiders’ pass defense has been solid in yards allowed but they do allow more than their share of points, they don’t pressure Qbs especially well, and they don’t create many turnovers.

The Colts defense has shown real improvement, giving up more than 17 points only once in their last 6 games, while facing very stiff competition. The Raiders are a pass-first offense, with Derek Carr the focus. Carr is banged up, which might account for the significant drop in passing yards over the last few games. The Raiders will again be missing Waller again this week. The Colts don’t pressure Qbs so much which is good because the Raiders are middle of the road in protecting Carr. The Colts are very adept at creating turnovers, while the Raiders give up the ball a lot.

Much has been made of the loss of Wentz, but the Raiders are the more depleted of the two teams. The Colts have been terrific against the spread this year, and overpowering of late. I’m betting on the Colts to again win and cover.

There is very little good news on the injury front for a very disrupted WFT. Heinicke is beaten up and in the dog house, and top running back Gibson is out. This is a blow for a team struggling to put meat on the table (so to speak). The Football Team is up against a surging Eagles team, winners of 5 of 6 games, and needing a win to solidify their playoff hopes.

The Eagles are top in the NFL with the run. Howard is questionable, but with the other backs and Hurts in the equation, they should be in good form. The Football Team is 8th in the league against the run but very much in freefall lately, allowing over 150 yards rushing in their last three games. Other than QB pressure, Washington is very poor against the pass. While the Eagles don’t rely on their passing game, Hurts has seen his QB stats climb lately.

The Football team will have their hands full against an increasingly tough Eagles defense. Only 1 team in the last 8 has run for +100 yards against them, and they are top 10 in all of the pass defense categories other than sacks. They have been very stingy in points allowed, averaging just 15 over the last three games.

In “what have you done lately” terms, this game is all Eagles. They beat the Football Team by 10 points 2 weeks ago, and I can’t see that Washington is in any better shape now. Barring a major underestimation by the Eagles, this game should be theirs for the taking. Take Philadelphia to win and cover.

Even after their shutout against the Bucanneers,  there is still the Saints' 9 point offense to consider, and that was with their quarterback and some other key pieces who will be missing this week.  Now the Saints are down to their 3rd or 4th string QB.  A Saints win would make a great Disney feature, but lets face it; "this ain't no movie", as the song goes. 

The Saints defense has dominant last week, and has been their strong suit all season.  The Dolphins allowed 24 points to the Jets, but this was not a result for the Dolphins.  In their previous 5 games they allowed an average of around 12 points per game, while reeling off 5 staight wins.

Tagovailoa has improved over the course of the season, and has been accurate and well protected of late. The Dolphins have shown dramatic improvement in offense. Here are a pair of stats to compare: Dolphins have scored 28 points on average in their last three games compared to 18 for the Saints. The Dolphins have an 81 scoring % in the red zone over the last two weeks, compared to the Saints’ 28% rate.

It appears to have been a doomed season for the Saints. They are depleted once again, and we saw  where that got them earlier in the year. Take the Dolphins to win and cover.

The numbers have dropped to a more reasonable level in the WTF/Cowboys game.  The WFT must be thinking "WTF" after their last couple of weeks.  Although players, including Heinicke, are returning, the team is still suffering the effects of Covid, a very short turnaround, 2 demoralizing losses, and an away game.  The Cowboys are healthier, at home, and no doubt still motivated.  Prescott is a few weeks past his return and was looking better last week.  The WFT excels nowhere on offense and may be missing their best runningback. Their defense had been very solid against the run this season but has regressed significantly lately. Other than pressuriing the passer, their pass defense is among the worst in the league.

Dallas' defense has gone from worst to almost first this season; the unexpected powerhouse of this team.  Look for a more settled offense to return to early season form.  The Cowboys have been good against the spread for most of the season.  Now that the points are out of the double figures, take the Cowboys to win and cover.

The Bills face New England in a critical game for both teams. The Patriots ran all over the Bills in their last windswept meeting, but weather, with possible snow, may still be a factor this time out. Covid may also be a factor with the Bills especially depleted.

After allowing a very uncharacteristic 27 points to the Colts, look for the Patriots’ defense to bounce back this week. Josh Allen is hampered by a foot injury, which may affect his usual mobility. The Patriots’ pass defense is tough on pass offenses, with low yards allowed and good QB pressure stats.

The Bills defense is very strong against the pass, but has been run on lately. Other than last week, QB pressure is not their strong point. The New England O line has protected Jones very well lately, while Allen has been sacked with frequency, specially last game.

Enter Belichik, New England’s thirteenth man. He and the Patriots are off a loss; two in a row is not a part of the plan. This game could be close, but a hampered Allen, the Bills covid issues, and the Bills’ uneven season sway me towards the Patriots. New England to win and cover.

Colts/Cardinals  

If you took the Cardinals' stats for the last three games and compared them to NFL season averages, they would be in the bottom 10 % of the league.  This, against the Lions, Bears and Raiders.  This would appear to be a serious downturn rather than a fly on the windshield.  On the other side, the Colts are peaking, with dramatically better performance across the board over the same period against much tougher competition (NE, Houston, Tampa Bay).

If Arizona has any chance to bounce back on Saturday, it will be up to Murray and his targets, as the Colts are very tough to run against.  Murray has not looked himself in his last two games and the Cardinals' pass yards and completion % have plummeted.  The Colts' offense is all about Taylor and the run, with Wentz performing as needed.  Curiously, Wentz has more pass TDs than Murray, with minimal interceptions.  The Colts' O line has protected their QB better than has Arizonas'. The Colts are very good on the road while the Cardinals, even when hot, have been indifferent at home. 

Yes, the Cardinals could bounce back on Saturday, but i wouldn't count on it.  Take the Colts to stay the course. Colts + anything should work.  A sizable win would not astonish me.

It is a tough call on the Seahawks/ Rams game, because of the Covid disruption. The Seahawks defense has shown real improvement lately in points allowed, red zone protection and rushing yards allowed. Their run offense has climbed dramatically, and Russel has looked back in form. How will they fare against the Rams? Much depends on who is playing today so it will be a last minute decision. The Rams are all about pass offense, with Stafford and Cupp front and center. It is not that the Rams never run, but they are 25th in the league at the moment, so winning against the Rams means controlling the pass. The Seahawks are not successful in QB pressure,(29th rated). They are worst in the league in pass yards allowed and there has been no sign of improvement lately. The Rams are not a warm and fuzzy matchup for the Seahakwks defense.

Saints/Buccaneers.

The Saints meet up with the Bucs sporting an impressive recent history against them. Can they continue their unlikely dominance against the immensely talented Brady and Co? Probably not. Can they keep this game close? Yes, and here is why.

The Saints have struggled this season and have had severe injury issues. In week 15, their three very good rush options (Hill, Kamara, Ingram) are all healthy. And yes, you can run on the Bucs. While third in defense against the run for the season, the Bucs’ rush defense has degraded of late, both in yards allowed, yards per carry, and points allowed of late. In addition, they have a hard time against a QB who can run. I think the Saints’ healthy and diverse run offense will have success against the Bucs.

It is unlikely that they will completely control Brady, but with an established run game, they can keep him off the field. The Buccaneers have become somewhat less of a pass first offense of late, but RB Fournette is questionable or compromised this week. The Saints defense has been very good against the run and best in the league at red zone defense. Their pass defense has improved dramatically of late. They have been able to get to Brady in the past, although the Bucs’ O line is generally very solid.. If they can key on Brady, they can prevent a blowout.

The Bucs’ defense is only average against the pass, but very good in QB pressure. The second key is whether Hil can establish enough of a passing game to be effective.

The Saints need a win here to stay in the running. A win is unlikely but I am counting on them to keep this game close. Take the Saints with the points.

The Broncos are off a lopsided win, the Bengals off a pair of losses. This is THE game to ante in or fold for both teams, in what will likely be a very close match up. At QB, the young dynamic Burrow gets the nod over Bridgewater, but with a couple of caveats. Burrow has been sacked an astounding 41 times, and has thrown for too many interceptions. Still, he is very cool under fire, and very good against the blitz.

Both teams have solid run offenses. The Broncos have been “runnin’ fools” in the last 3 weeks. The Broncos are a run-first offense, and that is unlikely to change on Sunday, which plays to the Bengals’ strength on defense. Forcing Bridgewater to throw will likely be a Bengals focus.

Denver’s defense is strong against the pass and great in the red zone. Some teams have run on them and they are only average in QB pressure, which might be a break for Burrow. The Bengals defense does two things very well. They apply pressure to opposing QBs, and as noted are very strong against the run.

This game will be close, and likely hinges on turnovers. If the Bengals control their turnovers, they win outright. While the Broncos are solid in ball control, I still like the explosiveness of a Burrow-led Bengals offense. Take the Bengals with the points.

Cardinals/Lions

This is a very lopsided match-up with an equally large point spread. I can’t see the Cardinals not taking the Lions seriously. I think the reverse is more likely. After a tough loss and a blow to their collective egos, I see the Cardinals out for blood, with no mercy shown. Looking at games where Arizona has played the NFL lesser lights, there have been some very big margins. The stats are remarkably one sided; there is no one area that the Lions excel in for them to take any purchase on keeping this game close. A couple of key stats: red zone success- Arizona, 3rd, Detroit, 31st, and sacks- Cardinals 6th and climbing, Lions 31st. Murray will have lots of protection but it could be a very long evening for Goff.

The Lions lost by 28 against Denver last week. As much as this is a large spread, I think the Cardinals will win and cover. Expect a similar result to week 14

Patriots/Colts

The Patriots are 7-0 in recent games. All the wins have one thing in common; their opponents just don’t score enough points to win. Patriots’ QB Mac Jones has shown remarkable poise and improvement in his first year. Off a bye and 3 pass win against the Bills, Jones’ arm will be well rested if nothing else. Lets see if he can shine against an average Colts pass defense.

The Colts are on a win one-lose one pattern, but have been piling up and allowing points in a big way, mostly scoring on the back of Jonathon Taylor. Controlling Taylor will be the key for the Patriots. The Patriots have a solid run defense and Belichick has had a week and a half to come up with a plan. The Patriots do give up some rushing yards, but they are best in the league in fewest rushing points allowed.

It will not be easy for Colts QB Wentz on Saturday. Wentz has been OK for the Colts and has shown some improvement lately, but he will be up against a very tough Patriots’ pass defense. Over the last three games, NE’s passing yards allowed have dropped from a seasonal average of 195 to 113 yards allowed. They are 9th in sacks, and very solid pressuring the passer.

While the Colts have Taylor, the Patriots’ have a trio of good options up against the Colts’ middle of the road run defense.

It is hard to bet against the Patriots, but as a slight underdog, it would not be wise. Look for them to reign in Taylor to some degree. If this happens, I don’t see Wentz picking up the slack. Patriots

Step back to NFL week three when the Chargers knocked off the Chiefs 30-24. Fast forward to now. It is remarkable how the Chiefs became so tough to play against. It is now 4 of 5 games that the Chiefs have allowed less than NINE points. Teams have had success passing against the Chiefs, but they don’t score that often. The Chiefs have really tightened up in the red zone, and in TDs allowed. They have also become much tougher in pressuring the QB, which will be critical on Thursday

While the Chargers are very good defending against the pass, they have been run on almost at will at times by opposing teams, and are 30th defending in the red zone. They have not allowed less than 20 points since week on.

Mahomes and Herbert are quite similar when the stats are compared. Both are a solid run option, and can be explosive. Mahomes has been lower key, but did bounce back for a huge game in week 14. Herbert had some struggles after a strong start, but has been dominant of late.

Oddly, the running game may decide this match up. The Chiefs’ no longer require Mahomes to be their only option. They have a number of viable run options, against a weak Chargers defense. The Chargers are far more reliant on Herbert as a one trick pony. Their best RB is limited this week, and the Chiefs defense has been all over the run in the last few games.

The last time the Chargers faced a tough defense (Denver) they did not fare well. I don’t see the Chiefs reverting to their early season struggles on defense, and Mahomes looked pretty fired up last week. The Chiefs just have more options than the Chargers. Look for KC to control Herbert, and win the rematch. Chiefs to win and cover..

The Bears rumble into their match against the Packers and it won’t be a picnic. While the Bears are trending towards healthy, or at least healthier, the Packers are still a force to be reckoned with. The Bears’ rookie QB is back from injury, but this is hardly cause for celebration. Justin Field’s numbers are not impressive. Two stats stand out; 4 Tds against 8 interceptions, and an ugly 31 sacks. No wonder his ribs hurt. On the plus side, he can run. At QB this game is a mismatch. Compare to Rodgers’ 23 Tds, vs 4 interceptions and 21 sacks. Rogers will likely control this game, using the Packers’ very average running game when he needs to.

All the signs point to a big Packers win, but Rodgers’ comments no doubt stung. A win is likely out of the question for the Bears, but what do they have or need to keep this one close?

1. Run the ball successfully and slow the game down. Montgomery can be a force to be reckoned with, and Fields, if he is up to it, can also run. The Packers’ defense are tough against the run, especially lately.

2. The Bears defense is poor against the run, but solid against the pass. They can and will want to get to Rodgers today. Making his life miserable will likely be job #1.

3. Control turnovers. Fields has been a walking interception machine. Rodgers is very careful with the ball. The Bears must protected their QB today.

4. Take advantage in the red zone. One of the Bears’ successes has been their ability to finish their chances which are few enough. This will be critical today.

I think the line is about right in normal circumstances, but I think the Bears will make the extra effort to stand proud and keep this game closer than expected. Take the Bears with the points.

The Bills meet the Bucs in a much awaited matchup. The game features two premier passers and a pair of pass-first offenses, so the outcome depends on how each team defends. Brady and his receivers face the Bills’ top ranked pass defense, but what the Bills don’t do is pressure the quarterback effectively. The Bucs have been very good at protecting Brady, so we can see a situation where Brady, with time, will be throwing against a very good secondary. For Allen the reverse is true. The Bucs have the 20th ranked pass defense, but are very good at pressuring the opposing QB. They are fourth in sacks for the season and had 5 last week. Can the Bucs get to Allen regularly or will he pick them to pieces through the air? A key factor in this game could be defense in the red zone. While the Bucs give up passing yards, they are significantly better than the Bills in defending in the red zone.

What about the running game? What running game.. The Bills don’t run much. Even last week in gale force winds, they stuck to the program. It is tough to run against the Bucs; they are 2nd rated in rushing defense. Tampa Bay has viable run options, but it is always option #2. Looking at how successful teams have been against the usually dependable Bills' run defense lately might give the Bucs pause for thought.

The Bills have been uneven this year, but good on the road. The Bucs, other than a blip in the beginning of November have maintained a steady ship, and are undefeated at home. Brady and Gronk have owned the Bills. Take Tampa Bay to win and cover.

The Raiders meet the Chiefs in a rematch, with the Chiefs winning in a blowout in Vegas last time out. The Chiefs are winning, but not as expected; their defense is ruling the roost, allowing an average of only10 points over their last 4 games. Vegas has struggled at 1-5. The Raiders’ QB has had a solid season, but he is a one trick pony, so as goes he, so go the Raiders. Carr is passing for 260+ yards over his last three games which is down for him. He has been sacked 27 times this year and has surprisingly few TDs (17) compared to other elite Qbs. By comparison, Mahomes, very much on a down year, has thrown for less yds, but is sacked much less and has far more TDs. The Chiefs’ O line, unlike the Raiders’, has shown solid improvement in protecting their QB.

These are pass-first offenses. Vegas is 28th in rushing yards, the Chiefs 19th. For the Chiefs, Edwards-Hilaire is healthy at RB, and Mahomes is always a dangerous option. The Raiders have Jacobs, who has run for 470+ yards but averages only 3.8 yds a carry.

Teams have had success passing against the Chiefs, but they don’t score that often. The Chiefs have really tightened up in the red zone, and in Tds allowed. They are tough to play against, with more than 2 takeaways in each of 4 last games, and very good sack totals. Quarterbacks have been successful against the Raiders, with a 97+ QB rate against them, 26th in the league. They held WFT to 17 points, but allowed 32+ in their previous three games.

The Chiefs are heavy favorites, so a win is expected, but will they cover? Vegas is out-coached, and Mahomes is due. With no real running game it is hard to see the Raiders controlling the ball. This might not be the blow out we saw in their last meeting, but I expect the Chiefs to cover.

Only the Vikings could reel off 426 yards of offense and still lose. Last week, Cousins had a solid game, and he has been that way all year. He has 23 TDs against only three interceptions. He has had time to throw, and has been well protected with only 15 sack for the season. That may change against the Steelers. Pittsburgh sacked the QB 7 times last week, and leads the league in applying pressure. TJ Watt is a monster, and can be a game changer.

The Vikings, rated right behind Pittsburgh, can crash a quarterback as well. It is one of the only areas where the Viking defense excels. Where the Vikings’ 24th rated defense does not pass muster is in the red zone (25th), against the run (29th), and pass yards against (22nd).

The Vikings are a pass-first offense but they do have run options. There main man Cook is out, but Mattison filled in well last week. The Steelers’ defense has not been great against the run either, but will make life difficult for Cousins and his receivers, especially in the red zone.

This would seem a perfect opportunity for the Steelers to run the ball, and they have the man for the job. Rookie Najee Harris has become a legitimate 2 way force, but the Steelers until now choose not to exploit the run much. Roethlisberger is not the force he once was, but he has slowly improved this year. The Steelers’ O line has been more effective lately, and he has only 6 interceptions against 14 Tds. He will face pressure from the Vikings defense.

We are starting to see more of the “tough to play against” character of the Steelers and that is not good news for the Vikings. Pittsburgh has momentum on their side, and are 4-1-1 ATS lately. The Vikings are not an effective home team this year. Look for the Vikings to struggle on offense on Thursday, and Roethlisberger, in his final season, do enough to keep this one close or win.Take Pittsburgh

On paper, the Patriots and Bills are close, but the edge goes to Buffalo. On the “what have you done lately” scale, the baton passes to the Patriots. Here are a few good reasons to take New England on Monday night.

1. Mac Jones has shown remarkable poise and improvement in his first year. The kid can really think on his feet, rivalling top veteran QBs. How much has he improved? Last week he threw for 330 yards, with a 120+ QB rating, and in his last three weeks, he has a 79% pass completion rate. Just try and keep up with the Jones!

2. the Patriots are winning by miles ATS, and beating some worthy opponents while doing it. The Bills, 2-3 and a push over the same period, have been erratic. The pummeled a very depleted Saints team but rolled over for the Colts.

3. A huge improvement in the Patriots’ pass defense. Over the last three games, the passing yards allowed has dropped from a seasonal average of 200 to 109 yards allowed. They are 9th in sacks, and solid pressuring the passer. The Bills’ very good pass defense has declined slightly on average, and they do not pressure the passer as much.

4. The Patriots appear poised, confident, and ready for greater glory. I am not so sure about the Bills. They are a good but uneven team, maybe ready to be toppled. It will likely be close but take the Patriots on Monday.

The Chiefs are off a bye week, rested and relatively healthy, and at home in prime time. Time for a blow out win over Denver? Maybe not. The Broncos have been solid vs a pass-first offense this year. They are 10th rated against the pass, with a good secondary, and effective at applying pressure to the QB. They do not have a dominant QB like Mahomes, but Bridgewater has been accurate and doesn’t give the ball away, with only 5 interceptions all year. The Broncos’ running game has been solid. They are down a running back, but Williams has been a real eye-opener this year and this could be his game to shine. The Chiefs’ pass defense is only 24th rated, and other than last game, they do not pressure QBs overly, so if the Broncos can establish a running game to support Bridgewater, this game could be close.

What to say about Mahomes. He was brilliant against the Raiders, and good against the Cowboys, but he will likely face more pressure from the Broncos than in either of his last two games. If he has a weakness, it is that he has thrown a good number of interceptions this year with 11 already. Unlike the Broncos, the Chiefs over all are prone to giveaways. On the plus side, the Chiefs’ defense appears to have improved this year, all the way from problematic to solid. Any success the Broncos have tonight rests on just which Chiefs defense shows up.

The Chiefs are a largish favorite, but are not particularly impressive ATS. Denver as well as KC are an improved team this year with momentum of their own. I don’t expect Denver to win, but this game may be closer than expected. Take the Broncos

The Seahawks beat the 49ers in early October, but much has changed since then. The 49er have what the Seahawks need, which is a running game. Seattle has averaged only 65 yards in their last three starts. Wilson is exposed, and the Seahawks’ possession time is limited. The resurgence of the 49ers’ running game coincides with the recent strong performance of Garoppolo. The 49ers, 6th rated and rising in rushing yards are averaging more than double the yards per game. Missing Samuel will be a loss on the ground and in the air, but Mitchell ran for 130+ yards on his own last week.

Wilson looked better last week but the WFT’s pass defense isn’t even on the same planet as the 49ers’. It will likely be a long game for Wilson; the Seahawks’ offensive line is allowing more than 3 sacks a game, and the 49ers’ defense take no prisoners.

Garoppolo has been effective and efficient, with very impressive stats in his last few games. He has only thrown two interceptions in 5 games, and has had good protection. The Seattle passing defense is rock bottom in yards allowed, and does not pressure well. With a strong running game, and a good offensive line, look for Garoppolo to have something of a field day. Final nail in the coffin: Seattle has been miserable at home, while the 49ers are road warriors this year and are 4-1 ATS lately.

Favorable odds are out there. Take the 49ers to win and cover.

Giants/Dolphins

With the Dolphins, it is very much “what have you done lately?”The answer is a lot; 4 wins in a row, 4-0-1 ATS, Tagovailoa hitting 80+ completion % and +100 QB rating four times in the last five games for starters. Looking through the stats, the last four games show a dramatic turnaround. The Dolphins’ run defense, 10th on average, has been much better than that recently and has been blitzing very successfully. Even their dismal running game has improved.

For the Giants, the outlook is not so rosy. Jones their QB is not likely to play. His replacement Glennon is 6-21 lifetime and has hardly played this season. Last week the Giants’ defense held the Eagles to 7 points but they were only able to score 13. Without Jones, and with an average running game (of which Jones was an active part) up against the tough Dolphins run defense, it will be hard to score points this week. The Dolphins haven’t allowed more than 17 points in five games and have faced better teams than the Giants. Look for the Dolphins to continue in their winning way and cover.

A pair of teams in recovery meet in Thursday night Football. Right now there are questions around who will play, but a few things are known. Taysom Hill will be the Saints’ QB. He will likely be an improvement over Siemian, if for nothing else other than his running abilities, but he may not be completely recovered. The Saints’ pass offense has been dismal, and their run offense, without Kamara has dropped from an average of 120+ yards to 79 yards over the last three games. Kamara is still questionable. The Saints possession time has been very poor in their last games as well.

The Saints’ claim to fame is their formidable 3rd rated run offense, but you wouldn’t have know it in the two previous weeks, giving up a massive 242 and 113 yards respectively. New Orleans’ pass defense is not in the same league at 23rd ranked, which will be a bonus for Prescott. Dak seems completely recovered, and was impressive last week. This week he will have some of his usual suspects back for targets. The Cowboys’ running game has plummeted in the past weeks with a banged up Elliott continuing to play, but Pollard is healthy. The Cowboys defense is weak and was picked to pieces by Vegas last week. Their run defense on average is, well, average..

For the Saints to get anywhere against the Cowboys, their run defense will have to bounce back, and Hill will have to generate some much needed offense. Hill is the wild card here, and it would be asking a lot for him to carry the Saints offense. The Cowboys will be working hard to restore their season, and might be the healthier of the two teams. I can't see New Orleans putting enough points on the board to keep up with Prescott and that  #1 offense.  Take The Cowboys to win and cover.

It is last call for the Seahawks on Sunday, sporting a 30th and 32nd ranked offense and defense, and the Washington FT on the upswing. Wilson has not been in form since returning, but no matter how he performs on Monday, Seattle has very significant issues standing between them and a win.

The Seahawks, missing Carson, and with Collins limited, are without any real options on the run, and the FT handles the rush very well. Washington has a legitimate run game, 10th rated and improving in their last three games. The Seahawks defense has struggled against the run all season. As a backup QB, Heineke has performed much better than expected, particularly in his last two games. He has thrown for 4 TDs against 0 interceptions in those two games. Wilson is still an unknown this week, and he will face a poor but dramatically improving WFT pass defense. The same cannot be said of the Seahawks’ passing defense. They have been bad, (rated 30th) and stayed bad. Neither team protects their QB well, but Seattle really struggles; Wilson has been sacked 7 times in the two games since his return.

Wilson has worked miracles before, but the Seahawks aren’t helping his cause. This game is basically a pick’um. I am picking the Washington football team.

It hasn’t been the season that the Browns expected but they are still in the hunt. The oft-injured Browns are recovering, although Mayfield is playing injured and, apparently, angry. He has not been at his best, with only 163 passing yards average in the last 3 games, and 10 touchdowns against 27 sacks. The Browns have the best rush offense in the league with Chub and possibly Hunt, but they are up against the Ravens’ 2nd rated rush defense. The Ravens’ pass defense is not in the same league at 2nd to last, but they do like to blitz, and as seen in the sack figures, the Browns don’t protect their passer very well.

For the Ravens, Lamar Jackson is back. He is the 11th ranked passer in the league, with 14 TDs against an ugly 28 sacks. He has also run for 600+ yards this year, and with the other running backs, has a rush offense that doesn’t trail the Browns by much. Weakness #2 is the Ravens’ offensive line, although the Browns do not have a habit of blitzing regularly.

The Browns defense overall is solid, but they have had some very lopsided losses this season. Teams that have handled the Browns running game have pretty well had their way with them. The Ravens' solid run defense could put them in that category.  Jackson and the Ravens have handled the Browns in the past, and are very good at home.  So the Ravens win, but do they cover?  They aren't good ATS this year, but have been against the Browns. Ravens

The Chargers and Broncos couldn’t be much more different. The Chargers have a 4th ranked pass-centered offense built around a young, explosive, if occasionally uneven QB in Herbert. The Broncos are a low scoring, low points allowed team. QB Bridgewater doesn’t throw a lot, is accurate and conservative with few interceptions. The rushing offense should figure prominently for the Broncos on Sunday if Denver has any hope of success. They have a solid ‘double threat’ pair of running backs who maybe don’t get used as much as they should. The Chargers defense is very poor vs the run, although improving somewhat in the last three games. The Broncos offensive line is injury riddled and rough at the best of times. Bridgewater has been sacked 21 times already, so the running game look even more attractive.

The run has not been a focus for the Chargers, or at least not until recently. Ekeler has developed into a solid pass and run threat, and of course Herbert can run effectively. The Chargers will have their hands full running on Sunday as the Broncos defense (last week notwithstanding) has been solid vs the run.

Where the Broncos struggle is against the pass. They are the 29th rated team defending against the pass and have a poor pass rush. This plays to the strength of the Chargers offense and will I think, be decisive in the final outcome.

The Chargers are 2 ½ point favorites, and will have just too much offense for the Broncos to match. Look for the Chargers to win and cover.

The Patriots are winning and often by a wide margin, limiting their last 3 opponents to a touchdown or less. The injury-riddled Titans have given up an average of 20 points over their last 4 games.

Post-Henry, the Titans rush offense has dropped significantly. Tannehill, without the protection of a premier running game and his three top targets, has been exposed and has seen his sack numbers rise to a whopping 31, along with 12 interceptions.

By comparison, rookie Mac Jones has developed well this season, has a higher completion rate, has been sacked less and has 2/3rds the interceptions. His completion rate has been in the 80’s in the last three Patriot games. The Patriots’ running game has found new footage of late, and has been in the NFL top three in their last 3 games.

The Titan 5th rated defense are hard to run against for yards, but they are not as effective in run points allowed. The Patriots are far more effective against the pass.

Injuries may catch up with the Titans on Sunday. With Henry, Jones and Brown all out, and Tannehill exposed, it is hard to see where their points will come from. If the Patriots maintain their withering defense of the last few games, and Jones continues in good form, the Patriots should win and cover.

Patriots

The Bills have a few things to be thankful for this Thanksgiving. 1. They are healthy, a novel concept in the NFL. 2. The Saints are not. Missing major players in the offensive line, and with Kamara missing and Ingram questionable, the Saints running game has taken a big hit. 3. Siemian is showing his true colors. Siemian’s completion rate is in the 50’s, very low considering the protection he has received, and without Kamara as a run threat and a passing out, he will be even more limited.

The Bills were embarrassed last week by the Colts, their usually solid run defense torn to shreds. The Saints, usually even better against the run, were also pummeled, with much of that coming from opposing QB Hurts. Allen can run. Can he duplicate Hurts’ success? Allen has struggled of late and has not lived up to expectations. This game provides an opportunity for bounce back, if he can control an ugly pattern of turnovers. He has been protected well this season, and the 22nd rated Saints passing defense could be picked on.

I like Buffalo in this game. The Bills have a winning record on the road, the Saints have struggled at home. With a depleted running game, Siemian up against a tough Bills passing defense and with the Saints’ depleted O line, I just don’t see where the Saints’ points are coming from. This is the perfect opportunity for Allen and the Bills to shine. Take the Bills to win and cover.

The Cowboys may not be as banged up as was suggested, which is bad news for the Raiders. At home, in primetime, and after that loss to the Chiefs, Prescott and the Cowboys will be looking to flex their muscular offense. The Cowboys are a very good home team, and they meet the Raiders at a fortuitious moment. The Raiders are struggling in the last three games and in a big way, with points for at 14.3 and huge totals against. Even their very strong pass offense has dropped by 50 yds, and their 3 down conversions are miserable.

Carr has been very good in passing for yards, but trails Prescott in accuracy & passing TDs, and interceptions. Without a prominent run offense or offensive line, Carr has been sacked more often. Aside from Prescott and a variety of fine targets, the Cowboys have a potent two pronged rushing attack with Elliot reportedly available this week. In fact the running game may be a deciding factor on Turkey day, with the Cowboys defending well against the run, and the Raiders, you guessed it, struggling.

The Cowboys’ defense has been better than expected this year; last week, a case in point, they held Mahomes and co. to 19 points. There is not much doubt that the Cowboys will win this one. I am also counting on them to cover. Cowboys

As traditional as Turkey lately, the Lions are in primetime on Thanksgiving day. Make that EARLY prime time! Here are a couple of key notes. The Bears have already beaten the Lions this year and covered. The Lions are 6-4 against the spread but the Bears, while 4-6 overall against the spread, are 4-1 ATS against teams with a losing record.

The quarterback situation is unclear in Detroit, with Goff being ‘will he won’t he’. On the other side, it will be back up Andy Dalton at QB. Dalton has experience, and will be better protected than usual as the Lions are worst in the league in pressuring the quarterback. Whoever starts for Detroit will face likely more pressure, as the Bears are 2nd int the league in sacks.

This game will likely feature the running game from both reams. The Bears have the advantage in the rushing department with a hot Montgomery and the 6th rated rushing attack against a Lions defense that is 31st in the league. Montgomery ran for 100+ yards and two Tds the last time out against the Lion. While the Lions’ running game has potential, it is middle of the pack in terms of yards. The Bears defense are more likely to control Swift and the Lions’ run game than the reverse against Montgomery.

The Lions are at home, which hasn’t made a difference this season as they are winless. The Bears aren’t a terrific road team but need a victory. The odds have tightened up in the Bears’ favor. I favor the Bears but it will be close. Take Chicago

The Giants, well rested after their bye week face Brady and the Bucccaneers off 2 straight losses. New York has been effective on the road ATS this year and has had some success against the Bucs ATS. Jones may have some opportunities against Tampa Bay, as the Bucs’ pass defense, which has struggled all season, has been particularly poor in the last two games. They likely won’t have too much success against the run even if Barkley is back, as the Bucs are very successful against the run.

Is Brady on a downward trend or will be bounce back with a vengeance in primetime and at home? Either is a possibility, although something of the latter is more likely. It is still not certain which of Brady’s targets will be returning from injury.

Will the Buccaneers win this game? Most likely. Will they cover? I have my doubts. Look for the Giants to keep things close. Giants 

Have the Chiefs really turned things around? They crushed Las Vegas last week, but won in a very un-Chiefs-like manner against a rudderless Green Bay team in week 9. The Cowboys laid their own egg in Week 9 but bounced back in an equally convincing manner. The Chiefs are 2 /12 point favorites, but I can’t see them covering. So much is banking on Mahomes in this game. The Chiefs’ defense obviously played better last week, but the are still ranked 24th over all. While we aren’t talking league leaders here, there is no category that the Cowboys’ defense isn’t better by a considerable margin, in particular at forcing turnovers. Prescott has matched Mahomes in most categories, including average yards and has far fewer interceptions. As far as pass protection goes, Mahomes has been sacked 17 times, and hit 58 times. The Dallas QBs have been sacked 14 times and hit 40. Mahomes has the advantage as a scrambler, but the Cowboys have a pair of top rushing threats in Elliot and Pollard. KC’s top rusher is 45th ranked Williams.

I don’t think this team is up to last years’ Chiefs, and t is going to take more than one convincing win to change my mind. So as the say in Missouri, “Show me”, and then I’ll back the Chiefs. Let’s not forget that ugly number of KC against the spread. 3 and 7! The Cowboys have the best offense in the league, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they stole this game. Take Dallas

Colts vs Bills

How Jonathon Taylor goes, so go the Colts. While Taylor has been outstanding, his biggest days have been against inferior run defenses. The Bills have been formidable against pass and run, among other things such as third down and red zone defense and interceptions. Not to mention QB pressure. If Taylor comes up short, it will be tough on Wentz, who can be pretty average or worse (as in last week), to take up the slack with the passing game.

After an abysmal game in week 9, Allen and the Bills came out flying last week. Allen has been impressive other than week 9, with 100+ QB rankings in 6 of 7 games.The Colts pass defense has not impressed, with an average QBR allowed of close to 100 and a 23rd ranked pass yards average. And while it may come from several sources, the Bills running game is still 10th ranked, against a 17th ranked Colts rushing defense.

Beating the 6-3 Bills at home would be a feat. Can the Colts cover? If Buffalo can control the running game, this one could be lopsided. Take the Bills to win and cover.

Patriots/Falcons:

Ryan and the Falcons stunk out the field last week, Ryan finishing with no touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a QB rating I can almost count on my fingers and toes. Jones was excellent last week, with his best game of his first year, but one game does not make him the reincarnate of Brady as some are suggesting. The Falcons at home and in the bright lights as well, are not going to want to be humiliated two weeks running. Ryan is a consummate professional and can’t play any worse than last week. I am looking for a bounceback from the Falcons, and maybe a slight fall off from a rookie QB and the Patriots. Don’t expect a win out of Atlanta but they’ll keep it close. Falcons +6.5

The 7-2 Rams face the home team 3-5 49ers. Both teams are off a loss; the Rams loss to the Titans particularly stung. Rams QB Stafford had a down game last week but he has been dominant this season with 8.89 yds per, and 23 Tds vs 6 interceptions. His opponent Garopollo has been ok for the season, and was decent in a losing cause last week, but his tenure is uncertain with the 49ers.

The Rams lost Woods, which will hurt and add Beckam in some capacity and possibly Von Miller. The 49ers are also beaten up, missing their #2 running back, and other key pieces.

The Rams have a pass-dominated offense, but can and may look to run the ball more this week. While the 49ers defense is strong against the pass, they are poor against the run. And while the 49ers don’t allow many passing yards, they still allow more than their share of passing TDs. The Rams defense protects well against the rush, but are average against the pass. They are very good defending in the red zone.

Garopollo was sacked 5 times last week, which is not normal, but a disturbing trend. The Addition of Von Miller, if available adds to an already decent pass rush.

The Rams have lost 4 straight against the 49ers. Off the loss last week, I like their chances to change that stat. The 49ers have lost 4 straight at home, and contrary to expectations, just don’t seem to have it together this season. Take the Rams to win and cover today

Anyone taking the Chiefs in this matchup is banking on a return to form from Mahomes. He has shown no sign of it, even in the win last week, throwing for only 166 yards, 1 TD, and 4.5 yds average. And it is not as if last week was a one-off. Carr wasn’t great last week either; while he threw for 260+ yards and a touchdown, he also threw two interceptions. He has allowed only five previous to that game. Carr can be explosive and has the highest pass yards average at 8.2 yds. To put this in context, Mahomes has been at 6.0 yds per completion since week 5. It is all about the passing game on Sunday; neither team has much of a running game, although the Raiders are improving.

The Chiefs’ defense is lamentable, poor against the run and pass. They are 30th in passing yards per attempt average, and tied with Raiders at 28th against the run. The Raiders are solid against the pass (14th) and very good at limiting passing yards per (2nd). Where the Raiders really excel is in pressuring the QB. They are 6th in QB pressure and 2nd in QB hits. It could be a long evening for Mahomes and Chiefs’ offensive line.

The Raiders have faced a ton of turmoil in the past weeks, but things should start to settle. Much is at stake in this game; I’m looking for Carr and the Raiders to put off-field issues behind them and cover if not win against the Chiefs.

The 3-6 Eagles are on the road against the 5-4 Broncos this week in what should be a close matchup. The Eagles running game has been very successful of late with three solid options, but the 8th ranked Broncos’ defense is much better than the Eagles’ last few opponents’. QB Hurts doesn’t throw for many yards, although he does contribute on the rush. Last week was one of his better outings, however he will face a very stiff Broncos pass defense.

For the Broncos, Bridgewater has been solid and accurate, if slow off the mark. He has been sacked often; the Broncos’ offensive line has the injury bug. The Eagles pass rush really struggled last week with no sacks, and little QB pressure. If this continues, look for Bridgewater to have a solid game, and pick the Eagles apart.. The Broncos also have a decent running game of their own, with two viable options. The Eagles rush defense struggles, allowing 120 yards per game.

The Broncos have a more balanced offense and a solid defense. They are tough to beat in Denver.  Look for them to gut this one out. Some very favorable odds are available, so don’t wait on this one!

Saints/Titans

The Titans, solid in their first game without Henry are home to the Saints who are without their starting QB and RB Kamara. Kamara is a huge part of the Saints’ rush and pass offense, and will be missed. The Saints did pick up RB Ingram, but he is not a complete replacement. Siemien played well in his two starts as backup QB, with 3 Tds and an 89.5 Qb rating. He has been well protected so far, but that may change this week. The Titans have been rough on passers, sacking the Rams Qb 5 times last week with 11 QB hits. The Saints will struggle to score points. Their passing attack is 31st rated; it and the run will both take a hit without Kamara.

The Saints are a very well coached team, and have a highly ranked defense against the run. They don’t turn the ball over very much and are proficient at causing turnovers. They do not defend against the pass very well, so it may be time for Tannehill to step up the Titans’ passing game. Tannehill has been average this year, but seems to generate offense when needed. Tannehill has been sacked 27 times this season, but the 31st ranked Saints don’t muster much of a pass rush, He has been intercepted 8 times, so controlling turnovers will be a key on Sunday.

The Titans defense is average against the run, better than the Saints against the pass, but where they excel is getting to the QB. The Titans have handled some potent offenses in their five game win streak; the Saints, missing key players, would not qualify in this category. Tennessee is a successful team at home, and have a lot of momentum at the moment. Some decent odds are available. Take the Titans to win and cover.

Ravens/Dolphins

Much has been made of the Raven’s ability to dumb it down this season vs poorer teams; they ARE only 3-5 against the spread. Miami is worse ATS at 3-6, which is a point to consider. After being shelled last week with favorites failing to cover, the last thing I want to do is pick another favorite, but the Ravens and Jackson are too potent and explosive, and the Dolphins’ 30th ranked defense too poor to do otherwise.

The Ravens defend poorly against the pass, but they will face a questionable Tagovailoa, with an injured throwing hand, or Brissett, who was hardly dominant last week. The Dolphins have no running game to speak about, and a struggling offensive line. Not to mention, a very high rate of turnovers.

MvP candidate Lamar Jackson is a quality passer and a top ten rusher. The Ravens’ offense has surpassed 400 yds 4 times this season, and is more than capable of the “big plays”. And don’t forget their kicker, who can add three consistently from anywhere over center.

With a damaged quarterback, the Dolphins may have to turn to the running game, and this is one area where the 23rd rated Ravens’ defense does excel.

Take the Ravens to win and, yes, cover..

Monday Night Football pits the Bears, off three losses, vs the Steelers, winners of three in a row. As the Steelers offensive line gels and the running game gains traction, Roethlisberger’s stock is on the rise once again. Last week he passed for 266 Yds, a TD and had a 98.4 QB rate. Rookie Najee Harris has showed remarkable improvement in his first season, and had 91 yards rushing last week. The Steelers broke the 100 yds mark three times in the last three games. The Steelers have allowed 14 sacks, and have only 7 turnovers.

Last week was Rookie Justin Field’s best game, but he IS the 32nd rated QB, very inexperienced, and averaging just 123 ypg passing with 7 interceptions. The kid can run, last week for over 100 yds, but having been sacked 26 times already this season, it is probably out of self-preservation. The Bears are 6th in rushing yards, but overall their offense is as low as it gets.

The Steelers defense is solid and improving. They are very strong in pressuring the passer, sacks, controlling the run and they don’t allow a ton of points against.

The Bears’ defense has been uncharacteristically poor of late. In their 3 game skid, the Bears have allowed over 140 yds rushing per game, and had no sacks last week.

The Steelers are at home, and are on a roll. It seems it is a favorites day for me, but I believe the Steelers will win and cover.

Titans/Rams

The Rams are a 71/2 point favorite this week against the Titans. I have had my struggles this season with favorites covering, but here is one to trust. The loss of Titans’ running back Henry is inestimable, not just in replacing his yards (they can’t) but in the impact on Tannehill, the offensive line and the passing game. Without the threat of Henry, Tannehill, already sacked 24 times, will spend even more time on his butt, and a dimension of the now critical passing game is lost.

The Titans are up against a very hot QB and team in the Rams. Stafford was terrific last week, has 22 TDs against 4 interceptions, and has a connection with Cooper Kupp that more than equals the Tannehill-Brown pairing. The Rams’ offensive line is best in the league allowing just 8 sacks, and very good at blocking for the run. And let us not forget that Henderson JR. is the seventh ranked rusher in the NFL.

The Rams defense is the best in the league at sacking the QB, and good against the pass. It is not know if their huge addition, Von Miller, will play this week but it would be a huge boost.

I am sure it will take the Titans some games to adjust to their Henry-less universe. Take the Rams to win and cover against the Titans this week.

Falcons vs Saints

The Saints are down a starting QB, the Falcons, their top receiver. This may impact the Falcons more, as the Falcons are an extremely pass-centric team, and Matt Ryan has few effective targets as it is. New Orleans will start Siemien at QB. He filled in very well by any standards last week. They likely will miss Winston but the Saints are not a very pass-focused offense. They have a solid running game around Kamara, and it just got a lot better with the deadline addition of Ingram. Ingram is a former Saint, and should fit in easily and well.

This game pits the 27th and the 31st rated offenses in yards per game. With such low offensive yardage, Saints have a better record and score more points than might be expected considering these numbers. They are a very well coached team, and have the 4th ranked defense. They don’t turn the ball over very much and are proficient at causing turnovers. They are also 2nd in the league in defensive points scored, which is significant in low scoring games.

Ryan is a competent QB, but with little support from his receivers, no running game and an ineffective offensive line, he is often left hung out to dry. And while the Atlanta defends well against the pass, they have the 26th rated defense against the run.

I think the running game will be key in this match-up. Look for a solid performance from Kamara and co. and the New Orleans defense, in another low scoring game. Take the Saints to win and cover.

Jets/Colts

The Jets were a great story in week seven. Worst knocks off first with the backup quarterback leading the way. They ought to make a movie.. White wasn’t just good; he ended with 400 passing yards and a very high pass completion rate. He was poised and conservative, with no passes over 15 yards. How will he do this week? The Colts’ pass rush is not overwhelming, with 16 sacks, and the defense has allowed 243 yds passing to date..

The Jets had huge and affirmative press this week, but was Week 8 just a one-off? This is the same Jets team that lost to the Patriots 54-13 the previous week, that has a running game of 75 yards a game, and 3.6 avg carry.i

The Colts are off a loss, with Carson Wentz in the hot seat. Wentz had his worst performance of the year, and ended the game with some key errors in judgment. He was back to last year’s habit, throwing two interceptions. It is hard to know how he will respond, but he might want to check out White’s last week performance for some ideas. Wentz has been hit an astounding 61 times this season and sacked 16 times. The Jets pass rush is improving, but they are not a force at this moment.

The Colts have the advantage of a very strong running game, with Jonathon Taylor leading the way. Taylor is also a very good pass target. Again, Wentz might want to rely more on the run, as the Jets are not effective in defending against the run.

There is a ton of pressure on Wentz to perform this week, and no guarantees as to his response. On the other side, the Colts are forewarned about White. Any win will buoy up the Jets, and they must be riding high this week. I think the Jets will cover, but don’t expect an outright win..

Giants/Chiefs

Before everything gets out of proportion, does anyone think that Mahomes will ever play as poorly as he did last week again? Even after last week’s debacle, the Chiefs still have the 3rd ranking offense. And yes they do have the fifth worst defense, but don’t forget that the Giants have the 27th rated defense AND the 20th ranked offense. So where has the Giants’ defense looked strong(er)? Not at applying pressure on the QB (29th) or QB hits (20th). They have created turnovers, but they are poor vs the run and barely average vs the pass. The Giants had 6 sacks last week, but that was not typical. Mahomes should have more protection this week, and perhaps the Chiefs will take the opportunity to try something different on Sunday, like step out with the running game.

Jones has been a middle of the road but improving QB this year, and the Giants have their star running back and 2 top receivers out this week. Don’t look for a ton of points from the Giants, even against a struggling defense.

The Chiefs are vulnerable, but I don’t think the Giants match up as a team that can exploit their weaknesses. Given his opportunity this week against the Giants, I am looking for the Mahomes and the Chiefs to bounce back. Take Kansas City to win and cover.

Cowboys/Vikings.

Sunday night football will be well worth watching this week as the high-scoring Cowboys meet the improving Vikings. The Cowboys’ big concern is whether Prescott will play, but it appears he will. Both teams are off a bye, and both had wins in week 6. The Cowboys won in a mistake-filled game against the Patriots, with Prescott airing it out for seasonal best 445 yds. Prescott has been more than impressive this year with a QB rating of 115, and 16 TDs opposed to 4 interceptions. We will see how he does against a tough Minnesota pass rush. The Cowboys balance their offense with a very potent “a 1 and a 2” punch running game.

Cousins was equally impressive in week 6, with 300 yds and 3 interceptions. Cousins has a QB rating of 105 for the season. The Vikings running game in the name of Dalvin Cook had a season-high yds total, and Cook looked in better health. The Vikings defense have a very good pass rush, causing low pass completion rates, with a very high number of sacks. Where they struggle is against the run, both in yards allowed, and average carry. This is concerning considering the Cowboys’ twin threats of Elliot and Pollard.

While the Cowboys defense do not pressure opposing quarterbacks very effectively, and give up too many passing yards, they have caused a very high total of interceptions. They are also very good this year in shutting down the run.

This is a very potent Cowboys offense that has managed to outscore any defensive miscues to this point, and their defense is much improved over last year. The Cowboys are 6-0 against the spread, and the Vikings are 3-3. I am looking for the Cowboys to go 7-0 ATS and to again win and cover.

Bengals/Jets

It would be a major upset for the Jets to cover against the a surprisingly good Bengals team, especially now with an inexperienced back up QB Mike White in the game. Last week, Burrow was impressive against a much better opponent, passing for more than 400 yds and 3 touchdowns. The Burrow to Chase connection has been a real eye-opener. Burrow’s only real negative is the number of interceptions he has thrown. The Bengals offensive line is improving, but allowed Burrow to be sack regularly in early games. The Jets’ pride is their pass rush. The Jets only hope of keeping the score down, other than Bengals complacency, is to take advantage the Bengals’ weak point, and pressure Burrow into committing more turnovers.

To cover, the Jets will have to put points on the board and that does not look promising with an offense that doesn’t rush or pass well, against a Bengals’ defense that is strong vs both. The Jets are the only team with more interceptions allowed (11) than the Bengals.

Bengals RB Mixon had an off game last week, but look for him to bounce back in a big way against the Jets.

Bengals will win and cover against the Jets.

Thursday night Football pits the 6-1 Packers on the road vs the undefeated Cardinals. The Cardinals beat up on the lowly Texans last week. The Packers were not really as impressive in their win against Washington as the score might suggest. The Cardinals have faced much stiffer competition in their 7-0 run than Green Bay has faced. In addition, Green Bay is likely down their top pair of wide receivers, which was enough to drive up the line this week. The Cardinals are reasonably healthy.

On paper, the Cardinals lead the Packers in all major offensive and defensive situations, including QB.

2nd rated Murray has completed a higher % passes for more yards and more points than 6th rated Aaron Rodgers. The only advantage Rodgers has in in interceptions allowed. And a lot of experience..

Quarterbacks aside, a key to this game will be whether the Packers’ defense can handle (or not) the Cardinal’s running game. The 23rd rated defense allowed 430 total yards against Washington, and have been very poor vs the run and in the red zone for much of the season. They have 18 sacks. The Cardinals defense has been solid against the pass, at least average against the run and has 19 sacks.

I don’t think Rodgers can pull this one out of the hat; too many parts are missing and just too much competition this week. Take the Cardinals to win and cover.

The 3-2 Saints meet up with the 2-4 Seahawks in Seattle in the wind and the rain. The Saints offense has modest passing yards and good rushing stats, but they are a big bang for the buck in the scoring department. So far this season they have been exceptional in the red zone. Quarterback Jameis Winston is 5th in the league in QB ratings with 12 TDs against 3 interceptions. His passing yards have increased dramatically each week in his last 4 starts, from 111 yards to 279 yds in their last game.

Where the Saints excel is on defense, especially against the run (3.3 yds avg, 79 yds/ game). While they may not have much of a pass rush, they defend well against the pass and in the red zone, and have 9 interceptions already.

The Seahawks, ARW have Geno Smith at QB for the next weeks, a considerable step down. Without the mobility of Wilson, Smith was sacked 5 times behind a suspect Seahawks offensive line. The Seahawks have allowed a total of 18 sacks this season already. Smith was 15 of 18 last week with a turnover, but passing yards avg. was only 3.25 yards

The Seahawks defense struggles against the run. Given the conditions on Monday night, a running game may be paramount. Collins ran for 101 yds last week, but overall the Saints have the edge, defensively and offensively. Collins is either playing injured or out at this point, so it could be Saints running back Kamara who steps out.

I like the well-rested Saints in this game. Shop around and take New Orleans to win and cover.

Colts/49ers

The Colts are on an upward trend, thumping the Texans in week 6 and winning two of three games. Carson Wentz, recovered from ankle sprains, passed for 625 yards and 4 TDs in the last two games and has allowed one interception in 6 games. He has been extremely poised considering the pressure he has faced behind the Colts’ struggling offensive line, and is turning into a big play machine. RB Jonathon Taylor is turning heads with his recent play, and rushed for 145 yds against the Texans. The 49ers are average against the rush and the game is expected to be played in the mud so watch for another big game from Taylor.

The Colts defense is strong against the run and good at creating turnovers, but they do not excel in defense against the pass, nor do they apply a lot of pressure on the passer. They face Garoppolo, who is returning from injury and has mobility issues. It would not be unfair to say Garoppolo has struggled in his last two games played. His completion rate is down, yards per attempt down. He has passed for 3 touchdowns in 2 games, and has two interceptions. The 49ers’ running game has been inconsistent, and in the bottom third of the NFL. They have had a bye week to sort out this side of the offense and the run will be important if field conditions are what is expected. They are 8th rated against the pass this year.

I see the Colts and as the team with momentum. I like Wentz’s ability to handle pressure and control the game. The running game will be important on Sunday, and Indianapolis has a real edge there. Take the Colts to cover if not win.

Detroit Lions @ LA Rams

Not only am I expecting the Rams to win today, I'm expecting them to win in absolute blowout fashion.

In a contest which I envision being completely lop-sided in nature, I'm going to suggest laying the points with confidence in what I predict will be an absolute ATS blood-bath!

The Lions are terrible. They're 0-6 and off a 34-11 home loss to the Bengals. QB Jared Goff was just 28 of 42 for 202 yards and an interception. Jamal Williams has been a bright spot for Detroit offensively, so far he has 255 yards on 69 rushes. Defensively though the Lions are horrible as well, entering allowing 28.7 PPG.

The Rams are conceding 21.2. LA QB Matt Stafford will be out to bury his former team today. Keep your eyes on Cooper Kupp, who already has 635 receiving yards this year for the Rams.

LA is 9-4-1 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite, while Detroit is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 as a road underdog.

I expect LA to have no mercy here as it keeps the pedal to the metal until the final whistle. The play is LA.

Panthers/Giants

Losers of three straight, the Panthers take on the 1-5 Giants on the road. The Panthers are still missing McCaffrey and it shows. Darnold was poor last week again, completing only 17 of 41 passes with one interception. On a positive note he did finish with a very fine drive to tie the game up.

The Panthers haven’t run much since the loss of CMC, but with a sputtering pass-focused offense, this is expected to change. This would be a fine time to step it up as the Giants struggle against the run.

The Carolina defense was uncharacteristically poor in week 6 allowing 4 TDs and giving up monster yardage. Let us hope that this is not the new norm. To date they are first in pass rush and have 16 sacks.

A strong pass rush is bad news for the Giants, as their wounded offensive line has been brutal. If Darnold was poor, then Jones was worse, with 3 interceptions and a fumble. The Giants to date have an indifferent running attack.

The Giants 25th rated defense showed itself, giving up four touchdowns as well, but this is not unexpected. They are very poor against pass as well as the run.

What to expect in this matchup? Look for a better performance from the Panthers’ defense for one thing. With the amount of pressure that Carolina can bring, look for Jones to struggle again. I expect a better game form Darnold, with more protection. Take the Panthers to win and cover.

Bills vs Titans

Off a blow-out over KC and 4 straight wins, The Bills appear to be more than a match for anyone. The Titans are 3-2, but have some key injuries, and will be banking on powerhouse Derrick Henry and the run again. How the Bills handle Henry will be a key today. They have been very good at controlling the run thus far. Last week aside, Tannehill has been very average, with low touchdown totals. The Titans offensive line has been picked apart, allowing a painful 25 sacks. Not to mention, the Bills have the best defense against the pass in the league.

Jake Allen has been effective and efficient, with talk of MVP thrown around. He has passed for 12 touchdowns, with just 2 interceptions, and has run the ball very successfully. Add to this a balanced running attack, against a Titans defense that has struggled on the ground and in the air.

This game is all Buffalo. Take the Bills to win and cover.

Cowboys vs Patriots

The Cowboys are 4-1 this season and 5-0 against the spread. Are the Cowboys, finally, the real thing? Dak Prescott has the Dallas offense purring along with a fine balance between pass and run. 2nd in points scored, the Cowboys have out scored the Patriots by an almost 2 to 1 margin. The Cowboys are out-rushing the Patriots by more than a 2-1 margin, and while the Patriots’ overall defense has been steady, they are only 15th in defense against the run. Dallas is far superior with success in the red zone.

New England, in victory, did not impress in Week 5. The Patriots just haven’t scored a lot of points this season. Rookie quarterback Mac Jones is inexperienced but improving, but with only 5 TDs so far. And while the Patriots have allowed 5 fewer points per game this season, Cowboys’ maligned defense has thrived is in creating turnovers. Diggs has more than an interception a game. Jones and the Patriots have been very poor at hanging on to the ball. This could be a significant factor in week 6.

The Cowboys opened at -3 ½ . The line is climbing, and for good reason. Jump on this game early and take the Cowboys to cover.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles

The Bucs are off back-to-back wins at the Patriots and over the Dolphins last weekend and I like the defending champs to keep the good times rolling again here.

With ten days off after this before a game at home against Chicago, I expect Tom Brady to take advantage of this suspect Philly secondary.

Jalen Hurts has shown plenty of promise and while he may go on to become the next Donovan McNabb, this is a huge step-up in competition for the rookie QB. I just don't trust Hurts on the national stage against the Super Bowl Champs.

I think this Bucs' defense is underrated as well and I believe it's going to have a big day here against this young Philly offense.

Lay the points and expect a blowout. GUNSLINGER on Tampa.

Buffalo Bills @ KC Chiefs

This is an important game for both teams, but I'd say much more to the 2-2 Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs though enter off a big 42-30 win at Philadelphia last weekend. Previous to that they lost two tough games agasint the Ravens and Chargers. 

Buffalo has been exceptional on both sides of the ball. It averages 33.5 PPG, while allowing 11.0, but that's definitely due to the level of competition its faced so far (a 35-0 win over Houston stands out obviously.)

KC's defense has been its weak point to this point. But, I still like KC to dig deep here against a Buffalo side that's just 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October.

The Chiefs would have had this game circled on the calendar, and I expect Patrick Mahomes and company to deliver.

The play is KC.