The set-up: Iowa State is 6-1 in Big 12 play for the first time ever and suffice it to say, I expect a bit of a letdown here in this difficult road venue. Brock Purdy had 236 yards and two TD's in his team's blowout win over K-State last time out. Texas though is on a three-game win skein as well. Texas' defense is underrated, it looked good in the 17-13 win over WVU last time out. 

The picks: Texas last game was postponed due to COVID, so the Longhorns come in with an extra week of rest to focus and prepare. I'll give a big nod to Sam Ehlinger over his counterpart Purdy as well, as Ehlinger has been a difference-maker so far for his team. I'm laying the short points in this great situational play, but expecting a big rout.

This is a 10* BEATDOWN on Texas.

The set-up: Cincinnati has been great, but it has a big target on its back after all of the attention its gotten and I believe it finally stumbles this weekend in this difficult road venue. The Bearcats most recently thumped ECU 55-17 last Friday. The Knights won't at all be intimidated though obviously, they most recently hammered Temple 38-13 last weekend. This also sets up as a revenge game for the home side, which fell 27-24 in Cincinnati last season. These teams are evenly matched for the most part. Desmond Ridder and Dillon Gabriel are a "wash" at the QB position. Each team is also sharp defensively. I don't think the Bearcats will go undefeated though this year and note that they're just 2-8 ATS in their last ten after five or more SU victories in a row.

The picks: UCF on the other hand is 23-2 straight-up in its last 25 at home. This one has the feel of whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last is going to win and in a scenario like that, I'm going to always grab as many points as I can. So that's what I'm doing here!

This is an 8* BLOCKBUSTER on UCF.

The set-up: I've grabbed the points, but I do expect Penn State to finally get into the win column here as well with a straight-up victory. With a spread like this, the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe that these teams are evenly matched. I do think that's the case also, but for me this comes down to motivation levels. Iowa is 2-2 and the Nittany Lions are 0-4. Iowa has once again been tough defensively, allowing just 14.8 PPG. QB Spencer Petras is a game manager, as RB Tyler Goodson is the focal point.

The picks: The Nittany Lions went 10-2 last year and note that they've never started a season 0-5 ever in their entire 100-year history of playing. Penn State lost 30-23 to Nebraska last time out, but it looked a lot better in the second half. Will Levis and Sean Clifford are going to keep this Hawkeyes defense on its heels today. Yes, Penn State has fallen off considerably from last year's team, but so too has Iowa. The Hawkeyes have been consistently inconsistent this year and after last week's win, I expect that trend to continue here vs. a Nittany Lions team which will be risking life and limb to try and finally get into the win column. As stated off the top, the outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Penn State.

The set-up: Obviously I'm not predicting an outright upset here. I simply believe that Florida will go up big early, and then take the foot off the gas in the second half as it prepares for Kentucky, Tennessee and LSU to finish off the season. 

The picks: Vanderbilt is winless, but it's been competitive in almost every game it's been in, most recently falling 38-35 at Kentucky, scoring 14 points in the fourth quarter. Kyle Trask could even be pulled in the second half, leaving the door open for Ken Seals and company to earn a solid backdoor cover. Just like UMass on Friday night, look for this spread to be too much for the favorite to cover here. 

This is an 8* ATS BLOWOUT on Vanderbilt.

The set-up: Coastal Carolina has a target on its back and I think that App State will give it everything it can handle on Saturday afternoon. The Mountaineers lost their opener, but they enter on top form after five-straight victories. Overall the Mountaineers allow only 16.9 PPG. Coastal Carolina has exceeded expectations for sure this year, as it's ranked and it's also beaten a ranked team. It allows only 16.3 PPG. App State won this game 56-37 last year, and while I'm not predicting an upset of that size this season, I do expect the hungry visiting side to deliver the goods.

The picks: The Mountaineers third ranked rushing offense will prove to be the difference maker here, as I expect it to keep Grayson McCall and the CC offense off the field of play more than usual. Look for App State's run game and defense to be the difference this afternoon, and grab as many points as you can.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Appalachian State.

The set-up: Minnesota is coming off a 33-7 loss to Iowa and it's now only 1-3, while Purdue enters off a 27-20 loss to Northwestern, falling to 2-1. If recent history is any precedence, then the Gophers have to be loving their chances as they've taken the last two in this series, including a 38-31 decision last season. Purdue only managed 262 yards of offense in its last outing. Overall the Boilermakers averages 25 PPG and they allow 23.7. Aidan O'Connell has 916 yards passing, seven touchdowns and only two interceptions. 

The picks: Tanner Morgan had two costly INT's in the Gophers loss last weekend. So far in the early going Minnesota is averaging 29 PPG, but it's conceding 35.8. Morgan has issues with his offensive line, but Purdue's defense isn't adept at rushing the passer, so this is a perfect opponent to get bounce back against. I'll point out as well that the Gophers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 20 points or larger SU/ATS loss in their previous outing. This one has the feel of whichever teams has its hands on the ball last is going to win and in a scenario like that, I'm going to grab the points.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Minnesota.

The set-up: The Rockets won this game 37-34 in OT last year, but I think they'll earn a much easier victory on Wednesday night. Toledo has averaged 38 PPG in the early going, but two late TD passes by WMU was too much to overcome in a close setback last weekend. QB Eli Peter was 30 of 46 and while the defense struggled, that unit catches a break this week facing the Eagles. 

The picks: EMU most recently lost 38-31 to Ball State. In the setback the Eagles posted 377 total yards of offense, with Preston Hutchinson accounting for 250 of those through the air. The Eagles though are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven following an ATS victory, while the Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a losing home record. I'm laying the points and expecting a decisive win and cover!

This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Toledo.

The set-up: These teams are only playing six games in the MAC this year, but I still think this sets up as a bit of a "look ahead" game for Buffalo. The Bulls are 2-0 and the Bowling Green Falcons are 0-2. But with a game at 2-0 Kent State up next, I believe the Bulls will be caught taking the foot off the gas in the second half. 

The pick: Buffalo likes to run the ball and the Falcons are poor at stopping the run. This one comes down to whether or not Bowling Green can get some points in garbage time and I believe it can, as even Northern Illinois put some points on the board in garbage time vs. the Buffs last time out. For all the reasons listed above, grab as many points as you can and expect a solid back door cover. 

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Bowling Green.

The set-up: UNLV will try to get off the schneid after starting the season 0-3. Most recently the Rebels fell 40-27 to Fresno State this past weekend. QB Max Gilliam has four touchdowns through three games. SJSU on the other hand is 3-0 after an upset 28-17 win over SDSU on Saturday. The Spartans were double-digit dogs, but QB Nick Starkel and company somehow managed the upset. Starkel left the SDSU game with a hand injury though and his status is up in the air here. 

The picks: The Spartans have only allowed 14.7 PPG in the early going, but winning leads to complacency. With a game vs. Fresno State up next as well, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. SJSU backup QB Nick Nash is capable, but the Runnin Rebels are desperate here. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

This is an 8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on UNLV.

The set-up:

The picks:

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on New Mexico.

The set-up: Fresno is 2-1 and Utah State is 0-3. Fresno lost 34-19 to Hawaii to open the year, but the Bulldogs have rebounded to beat two bad teams in UNLV and Colorado State. Utah State's competition has been much greater, having lost to Boise State, SDSU and Nevada. After the 34-9 loss to Nevada, head coach Gary Anderson was fired, with assistant head-coach Frank Maile now stepping in as interim. I think the Aggies will respond on the field of play to this coaching change. 

The picks: Utah State is also 11-4 ATS in its last 15 at home, while Fresno State is is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. No outright, but look for the coaching change to help motivate the home side here as they at they very least, take this one rigth down to the wire. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* MW GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State.

The set-up: Does ECU have a shot at winning this game outright? Of course not. There's zero chance of that. Cincinnati has a favorable schedule and it appears to be on a mission. However, I think this is a great situational play, as I do think the Pirates will play hard on this nationally televised game, while I also fully expect the Bearcats to take the foot off the gas in the second half as they get ready for a much tougher game at UCF next weekend. Situationally, this one sets up great for the Pirates. 

The picks: Cincinnati has already blown out plenty of opponents this season and there's just zero reason for it do so again. We've reached the point of the season where it has to start looking ahead and I fully expect that to happen here. I base my picks on many things. Situations, trends, trying to go against public money/perception at times. For this one though, it's all about the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one (it's also important to note that ECU is in fact 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road as well.) Grab the points.

This is a 10* U OF THE U on ECU.

The set-up: EMU opened with a 27-23 loss to Kent State, while Ball State lost 38-31 to Miami Ohio. Preston Hutchinson was 21 of 35 for the Eagles in his opener, throwing for 241 yards, two TD's and two INT's. EMU's weak point last year was its defense and I think the unit will predictably struggle on the road here in this difficult venue. 

The picks: Ball State had an interesting season last year, as it won only five games, but it was just eight points away from an eight win season. The Ball State defense is also poor, but the offense has been great, led by senior QB Drew Pitt, who had 309 passing yards, one TD and one INT in the opener. Ball State's balanced offense will be the difference maker in the end though, as Caleb Huntley had 132 rushing yards and two TD's in last week's setback on the ground. Pitt and the Cardinals have a huge experience edge. They're also playing at home. I like Ball State to put the foot on the gas and keep it there until the final whistle. Lay the points.

This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Ball State.

The set-up: WKU has lost three of its last four, but off a blowout loss to BYU, I like the Hilltoppers to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. FAU has had three games postponed due to Covid. It's been good in the early going, allowing only 13.3 PPG, but I think it comes out a bit flat to start here, and that's going to be the advantage we grab hold of and ride to a solid cover. Despite losing 41-10 to BYU, WKU had 166 rushing yards in the setback. QB Tyrell Pigrom had been great as well, as he has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. 

The picks: FAU enters off a 24-3 win over UTSA. Nick Tronti had 382 passing yards, three TD's and one INT on the year. Note though that FAU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after holding a team to three points or less in a victory in its previous outing. I like the "hungrier" team to at least cover with the generous spread.

This is a 9* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on WKU.

The set-up: Minnesota is 0-2. Illinois is 0-2. Two teams enter, only one will leave with a victory. And that team will be the Gophers (and in resounding fashion!) Last year the Gophers annihilated the Illini 40-17 in this game and I expect a similar beatdown here. Last year Minnesota only lost two games total. Last time out Minnesota lost in OT to Maryland off a failed PAT. THe Gophers lost a lot of talent, but I like Tanner Morgan to help his team to bounce back here finally and get off the schneid. 

The picks: And here's the perfect team to do it against, as Illinois hasn't won a game since Nov. 23rd of last year. Overall the Illini allow 309 passing yards per game, which is second worst in the nation. QB Coran Taylor is a lone stand out on a poor team and I look for Minnesota to finally get untracked here (note as well that Illinois is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.) I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout.

This is an 8* BLOWOUT on Minnesota.

The set-up: Cincinnati is 5-0 and Houston is 2-2. Clearly the Bearcats are the better team and I'm not going to try and convince you otherwise. Desmond Ridder leads an exciting and dynamic Bearcats offense and Cincinnati has also been great defensively. The Bearcats have a favorable remaining schedule as well, so a Championship berth is not out of the question if they can run the table. It's a shortened season, so it's definitely possible as well. 

The picks: Houston comes in under the radar though in my opinion (note that it's 4-1 ATS/SU in its last five on the road.) Houston fell apart in a loss to UCF last weekend. They also have a loss to BYU (43-26). They have big wins over Tulane (49-31) and Navy (37-21). I think the Bearcats take the foot off the gas in the second half. Expect a comfortable cover.

This is a 9* COACH'S CORNER on Houston.

The set-up: Syrause is a bad team, but I like it to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Boston College almost beat Clemson last week and because of that "near miss," I think the Eagles come out a bit flat here (of course, Trevor Lawrence wasn't playing in that one.) Overall BC averages 27.6 points per game, while allowing 26.3. Syracuse comes in off a 38-14 home loss to Wake Forest. The Orange actually played decently against Clemson as well, and Syracuse was the first to intercept Lawrence in his Collegiate career. Overall the Orange only average 19 PPG, while conceding 13.3. 

The picks: Yes, BC is the better team here. But the situation favors the hungry underdog home side. With a game at home against Notre Dame in another nationally televised contest, I expect BC to take the foot off the gas as well in the second half if it does in fact have a lead. I'll grab the points and expect a solid back door cover.

This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Syracuse.

The set-up: San Jose State is 2-0 and I think it'll give the Aztecs a run for their money on Friday night. Most recently the Spartans topped New Mexico 38-21 last Saturday, covering the 13.5 point spread. SDSU is also 2-0 after its 38-7 win over Utah State. SDSU won this matchup 27-17 last year and it has in fact won seven straight in this series. Can anyone say "revenge factor?!" Nick Starkel had three TD passes for SJSU last weekend. He also ran two in. SJSU averages 27.5 PPG and it concedes 13.5. 

The picks: SDSU got two rushing TD's from Greg Bell last time out. The Aztecs actually outgained the hapless Aggies 570-215. Overall SDSU averages 36 points and it allows just 6.3. Both teams have faced lesser competition, but that changes this weekend. SJSU has made significant strides on both sides of the ball and I think it's being severely underestimated here by the oddsmakers. I like Starkel to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on San Jose State.

The set-up: Wyoming is 1-1 after defeating Hawaii 31-7 last Thursday. Colorado State opened is season with a 38-17 loss to Fresno State. The silver-lining for the Rams was that they gained 372 yards on offense (unfortunately allowing 442 yards of their own.) Wyoming has to start the season with its backup QB in Levi Williams, who looked decent vs. a weak Warriors team last week. But it's still significant to note that the Cowboys are down signifcant pieces, including to starting quarterback Sean Chambers is out indefinitely with a fractured fibula. Others include RB Titus Swen and offensive lineman Alonzo Velazquez, while defensive end Garrett Crall is questionable.

The picks: Colorado State will settle down here at home. The defense has a big opportunity to bounce back here as well. The offense though looked great in the dual QB system with Todd Centeio and Patrick O'Brien. This is definitely one of those cases where we should not "overreact" after the Week 1 results. Look for the Rams depth to be the difference here and I also expect a much better defensive effort. Outright is possible, but let's grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State.

The set-up: Most of Buffalo's defense from last year returns. The unit would go on to give up less than three TD's in five of its last six games last year. NIU has QB Ross Bowers under center, but the Huskies are dealing with a huge turnover of players on both sides of the ball this season. Bower was sacked 18 times last year and he had more INT's than TD's. Buffalo is also 4-1 ATS the last five in this series. Buffalo also welcomes back its biggest offensive weapon in RB Jaret Patterson, who averaged 5.8 YPC last year. Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease is also back, and he had 1,200 yards passing, eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. 

The picks: NIU is also only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a favorite. Buffalo had some issues with covid a few weeks ago, but I still think it'll easily pull away down the stretch vs. this Huskies team that is basically starting from scratch. I'm laying the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo.

The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too.

The pick: Note that Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a double-digit home loss, while Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last ten following an ATS win. Alabama gets caught looking ahead to its bye week here, so grab the points!

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Mississippi State.

The set-up:

The pick:

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas.

The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too. 

The pick: Iowa State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a 25 points or higher favorite on the road and coming off a SU/ATS loss. I'm grabbing the points!

This is an 8* LIVE DOG DESTRUCTION on Kansas. 

The set-up: UNLV finished last in the Mountain West last year, going 4-8 overall and 2-6 in league play. The Rebels only won four games, but two of those wins came right at the end of the year. SDSU was second in the Mountainwest last year, going 10-3 and 5-3. UNLV QB Kenyon Oblad will have his hands full in this difficult venue, but he does come in with much more experience and with his top three wide receivers from last year. 

The pick: The Aztecs have a new QB in Carson Baker this season, last year he made just 24 passes. SDSU also has a new starting RB in Chance Bell. SDSU was No. 2 in the nation defensively last year, but the unit also had some turnover this year. With a game at Utah State on Halloween Night up next, I think the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half, leaving the back door wide open for Oblad and company. Grab as many points as you can.

This is a 10* MOUNTAIN-WEST GAME OF THE YEAR on UNLV.

The set-up: I think Marshall gets caught looking past lowly FAU today. Marshall is ranked No. 22 in the country with a 4-0 record. Last time out it beat Louisiana Tech 35-17. The Thundering Herd have also had two other games postponed due to Covid 19 issues. FAU has only played one game so far this year, a 21-17 victory over Charlotte. The Owls have had to deal with sevreal Covid related issues as well. FAU is led by the dynamic play of dual-threat QB Nick Tronti. 

The pick: Marshall though is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a 15 points or greater victory in which it also covered the spread, while FAU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after playing with two or more weeks of rest. I like the well rested Owls to sneak in through the back door down the stretch, after Marshall takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points.

This is an 8* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on FAU.

The set-up: Michigan State defeated Rutgers 27-0 as a 22-point favorite last year, but MSU has a new coach and a new QB and it has plenty of new faces on both sides of the ball. The Spartans lost almost all of their offensive talent from last season's team which struggled with offensive consistency. 

The pick: Rutgers was dead last in the Big Ten last year, but it returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense. Quarterback Noah Vedral doesn't have a lot of experience, but the transfer is decent and is a true dual threat. I look for MSU to get caught looking past its opponent. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

This is an 8* play on Rutgers.

The set-up: CC has a target on its back as the only undefeated team in the Sun Belt. Georgia Southern won this game 30-27 last year. Georgia Southern comes in on top form as well after back-to-back wins, most recently routing UMass 41-0. Georgia Southern is ranked fourth in the country in rushing. JD King has 423 rushing yards so far. CC comes in off a 30-27 win over a ranked Louisiana team. Note though that CC's run defense gave up nearly 300 rushing yards in that one. 

The pick: Georgia Southern is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a road underdog in the +5.5 to +7.5 range and after back-to-back victories. I think Georgia Southern's strong running game is the difference here. Grab the points.

This is an 8* play on Georgia Southern.

The set-up: UNC is looking to lay a beating on NC State after a poor performance in Tallahassee. The Wolfpack are now ranked 23rd after three straight wins, including a 31-20 win over Duke last time out. NC State is led by the dynamic polay of QB Devin Leary, but he's now out for the rest of the season after breaking his fibula late in last week's victory. 

The pick: Florida State had a 31-7 lead over UNC, before the Tar Heels finally fell 31-28. Mack Browns team has all the pieces to bounce back big at home though, led by Heisman Trophy candidate Sam Howell. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS their last six at home as well, while the Wolfpack are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten on the road.

This is an 8* play on UNC.

The set-up: Wisconsin plays with revenge here after falling 24-23 to Illinois as a 30-point favorite last season. The Badgers lost their next game after that setback as well to Ohio State last season, but overall the Badgers had another great year. Wisconsin is without the services of starting QB Jack Coan, meaning that Graham Mertz will have his shot at proving himself tonight on the national stage. Wisconsin also doesn't have Jonathan Taylor running the ball anymore, but Nakia Watson is expected to fill in seamlessly. 

The pick: Brandon Peters is back under center for Illinois this year, but most of the pieces he had around him last season have moved on. Peters only completed 55 percent of his passes last season. Illinois' best player is likely kicker James McCourt. Note though that the home side is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series, while Illinois is 0-5 ATS in its last five "Friday night" contests. Look for the Badgers' superior defense to be the difference maker for us down the stretch, as I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas, even if it has a large lead in the second half. Lay the points.

This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on Wisconsin.

The set-up: Arkansas State is 1-1 after a 59-52 win as a 3.5 point favorite against Georgia State last weekend. The Red Wolves though allowed 583 total yards of offense. Arkansas State enters first among the ten teams in the Sun Belt by averaging 496 yards of offense per game, but it's also dead last on the defensive end, allowing 481.8 yards. 

The pick: So far the MOuntaineers are 2-1 this season. App State has been off since September 26th and I expect the Mountaineers to come out and run the Red Wolves off the field with their superior play on both ends of the field. So far App State is averaging 31.3 PPG and it's conceding only 19.3. The Mountaineers have plenty of returning talent from last year and I think the extra time off just adds fuel to the fire for the home side. Conversely, after their last loss, I expect the Red Wolves to come out flat-footed here. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on App State.

The set-up: Kentucky has been playing well and I think it'll take this one down to the wire. The Wildcats enter off a 24-2 win over Mississippi State, including posting six interceptions. The Vols enter off a disheartening 44-21 loss to Georgia and I expect them to get caught flat-footed here as well. Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano turned the ball over three times. 

The pick: I think Wildcats' QB Terry Wilson is going to have a big day here. He had 463 yards passing with two touchdowns, along with 221 rushing yards and three more TD's on the ground. The Vols are also just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a ten points or greater road loss in their previous outing. With Alabama coming to town next weekend, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter!" 

This is an 8* ROUT on Kentucky.

The set-up: SMU enters out of its bye week. Tulane fell 49-31 to Houston last weekend. This is a revenge game for the Green Wave after falling 37-20 to the Mustangs in the final game of the regular season for each team last year. SMU QB Shane Buechele has gone 105 passes without throwing a pick for SMU. The Mustangs average 44 PPG and they allow just 23.3. But with a game at home against leading Cincinnati next weekend, there's no question that this sets up as a classic "look ahead" spot for Buechele and the Mustangs. 

The pick: The Green Wave offense stalled last weekend. The defense was sharp in forucing five turnovers. Michael Pratt was making his first start of his career and he has 141 passing yards and a touchdown. Tulane relies mostly on the run game on offense anyways though and so far it's averaging 37 PPG, while allowing 31. The Green Wave are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS as a home dog, while the Mustangs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road. No outright, but down to the wire. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulane.

The set-up: Last season Georiga State upset Arkansas State 52-38 as a 6.5-point underdog and I think it has a legitimate shot at winning this contest outright as well. The Panthers opened the season with a 34-31 OT loss to Louisiana-Lafayette and then had their next contest postponed. On OCtober 3rd they beat ACC foe East Carolina 49-29 as a two-point underdog. Georgia State won the yardage battle 485-286. Cornelious Brown has four touchdowns and three INT's, but the Panthers have averaged 40 PPG, while allowing 31.5. 

The pick: Arkansas State enters off a 50-27 win over FCS opponent Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves won the yardage battle 573 to 411. Arkansas State utilizes two quarterbacks this year in Layne Hatcher and Logan Bonner. The Red Wolves though are 0-3 in their last three as a favorite vs. an FBS opponent, while Georgia State enters with a 6-3 ATS record out of its last nine when playing the role of underdog. The Panthers secondary already has five interceptions, so I think the Red Wolves have a difficult time moving the ball today. I'm grabbing the points.

This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Georgia State.

The set-up: The Ragin Cajun's blew the Chanticleers away in last year's 48-7 win, but I expect Coastal Carolina to be much more competitive this season. The Chanticleers went 5-7 last year. This season they're 3-0. Eight starters returned to the offensive side of the ball and in the early going they're averaging 44.3 PPG. CC had 38 in a win over Kansas to open the season. Grayson McCall had 322 yards and four TD's last week. Last year CC allowed 33.2 PPG, this season it's conceding just 22.3.

The pick: UL Lafayette hasn't played since September 26th because of Covid issues. The Ragin Cajuns went 11-3 last year and they're 3-0 this season. In their last game they held on for a 20-18 victory over Georgia Southern. GSU had 447 yards of offense, including 192 on the ground. Overall the Cajuns average 28.3 PPG this season. Coastal Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record though and 5-1 ATS in its last six following a straight-up win of more than 20 points, while Louisiana is 0-4 ATS in its last four conference contests. Revenge is on CC's mind here and while the outright is possible, in the end I'm grabbing up the ample points!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina.

The set-up: K-State beat Oklahoma last year as a big underdog, so I definitely thought that the Sooners would be out for revenge this season, but a late meltdown last week led to a second consecutive loss to the Wildcats as a 28 point favorite. Oklahoma quarterback Spencer Rattler threw three interceptions, so that obviously didn't help. Iowa State was upset by the Ragin Cajuns two weeks ago, but the Cyclones held on for a 37-34 win over TCU last weekend. I am not going to over-react here to the Sooners "brain fart" last weekend..instead I will look at the positives and expect Oklahoma to bounce back this week. Rattler, while he did throw the three interceptions, he also threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns. It was Rattler's second consecutive four touchdown game. Drake Stoops, son of former coach Bob Stoops caught three passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. The Sooners looked poor defensively though, they allowed 334 passing yards and did not record a turnover. 

The pick: Iowa State quarterback Brock Purdy had 211 yards passing and one touchdown, while Breece Hall had three rushing touchdowns in the win over the Horned Frogs last weekend. The Cyclones win came at a cost though, as two offensive linemen were lost in Trevor Downing and Robert Hudson. The Iowa State defense was a big of a mixed back, posting seven sacks, but also allowing 400 passing yards. I think that Rattler is going to be able to exploit this and I like the Sooners defense to bounce back after that atrocious fourth quarter last week. I'll finish off by pointing out that Iowa State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four following a straight-up victory.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma.

The set-up: Cincinnati is 2-0 on the season after beating Army last time out. USF won its first game over Citadel 27-6, before then getting destroyed 52-0 by the Irish. Then last week the Bulls game vs. FAU was postponed due to Covid. South Florida will be running the ball a ton here and I think the home side gets caught "looking ahead" today. 

The pick: In fact, the Bearcats enjoy their bye-week after this. And finally note that Cincinnati is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back ATS victories. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on South Florida.

The set-up: The Red Raiders play with revenge here after falling 30-27 in this game last year. Texas Tech comes in off a tough loss to Texas, but they were a massive underdog and they have to be feeling good about how they played. Now they get to take out their frustrations on a contented K-State team which just upset Oklahoma for the second time in two years as a 28 point underdog. In the end Texas Tech had 441 yards, with QB Alex Bowman throwing for five TDs. 

The pick: K-State trailed for the first three quarters, but a complete collapse by Oklahoma in the fourth proved to be the difference. It was a surprising result, considering that K-State has several players sidelined with Covid. Skyler Thompson had three rushing TD's and one passing. Both teams took their respective ranked opponents down to the wire, but one came away with the victory, while the other came up JUST short. Give me the hungrier dog in this fight and take the points in the process!

This is a 9* 'PLAY-BOOK' on Texas Tech.

The set-up: Texas won this game last year by a score of 49-24, but I think the stage is set for a much closer battle this time around. The Longhorns are 1-0 after beating UTEP 59-3, and the Red Red Raiders are also 1-0 after beating Houston Baptist by a score of 35-33. Texas is looking to improve upon its 8-5 record from last year. Sam Ehlinger is back under center to direct an offense which averaged 35.2 PPG. The weakness is on the defensive end though, as the unit allowed 27.5 PPG last season. That defense should be improved, but it now clearly faces a much tougher offense this week. 

The pick: Texas Tech will have its hands full through all three phases, but with QB Alan Bowman under center, I love the Red Raiders chances here. Bowman can keep his team in late. Last year he only played in three games, but he finished with 1,020 yards, six TD's and three INT's in that span. Texas Tech also welcomes back three of its top four receivers, led by KeSean Carter. Yes, the Red Raiders are destined to be terrible defensively again this season (they allowed 600 yards in th ewin over HBU), but the unit does return eight starters, so minor improvement is also expected. The Red Raiders' schedule doesn't easier either with games at K-State and Iowa State up next. Texas on the other hand will get caught "looking ahead" here with a game at home vs. TCU, follow by at Oklahoma, vs. Baylor and at Oklahoma State all on deck next. No outright, but much closer than expected in my opinion. Grab the points.

This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas Tech.

The set-up: This is a big game for Florida State. The Seminoles have endured back-to-back poor seasons under Willie Taggert, but he's out this season and Mike Norvell is in. Norvell was extremely successful as the head coach at Memphis last year, leading it to an AAC title while averaging 40.5 points in the process. Georiga Tech switched up its offense last year under then first year head coach Geoff Collins, but it's hard to imagine this rebuilding visiting side doing much better than it's 3-9 record from 2019. James Graham returns under center for GT, or does he? In fact, as of writing this the Yellowjackets haven't even named their starting QB. GT's defense was one of the worst in the country and while it should improve, it won't be too dramatically. Unfortunately this year GT is being thrown to the wolves this season, without any non-conference "cream-puffs" to warm up on. 

The pick: FSU has its No. 1 QB back (James Blackmon) and its top receiver in Tamorrian Terry back and ready to prove themselves. The Seminoles were poor defensively last year, but ten of 11 starters are back and I think that spells big trouble for the QB-less Jackets. GT is a "Power 5" team in name only, the product on the field today is going to be a sub-par and I think the Seminoles will take FULL advantage. Lay the points.

This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on FSU.

The set-up: Yes UAB crushed Central Arkansas 45-35 at home last weekend, but I think the Blazers will have a much more difficult time vs. this Hurricanes team which went a sub-par 6-7 last year. Tyler Johnson III is a decent QB and Spencer Brown a good RB, but I believe they'll struggle here in this difficult road venue. 

The pick: Miami fans have a lot to be excited about this season, as D'Eriq King transferred over from Houston. King is a dynamic QB and he's going to want to prove himself here. The Miami Florida defense lost a few starters, but overall the unit remains a strenght of the team. I have a hard time seeing UAB keeping up to King and company down the stretch. Lay the points!

This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Miami Florida.

The set-up: MTSU was 4-8 overall last year, while Army was 5-8. The Black Knights finished third in the country in rushing, as it lacked offensive punch through the air and struggled on the defensive end. MTSU's issues on offense were much bigger though and its inability to sustain drives would then lead to added pressure on the defense. MTSU uses a two QB system, with Asher O'Hara and Chase Cunningham splitting duties. 

The pick: Army averaged 28.5 PPG and it allowed 23 last season. Christian Anderson is the new QB, who will be leaning heavily upon returning RB Sandon McCoy, who had ten rushing TD's a year ago. MTSU should improve, but I think Army's relentless rushing attack, combined with its superior defense will see it pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Lay the points.

The is a 10* NON-CONF. BLOWOUT on Army.

The set-up: South Alabama was just 2-8 last year, but with QB Desmond Trotter back under center, along with most of the defensive unit, the Jaguars are expected to take a big step forward. Trogger had 820 yards passing with eight touchdowns and two interceptions in seven games. Four starters return to the offensive line as well. Trotter also has six of the Jag's top seven receivers returning. Also seven of the top eight defenders return.

The pick: Southern Miss was 7-6 last year and senior QB Jack Abraham is back after completing nearly 68 percent of his chances, with 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Abraham though lost five of his top seven pass receivers, and while the defense will be a strength of the team, the questions marks on the other side of the ball are a concern to open the season in my opinion. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.

The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on South Alabama.