NFL HIGH ROLLER 100 DIME GOY

BRONCOS-3

Despite the loss, I still have faith in the Denver Broncos. While the Raiders did beat an up and coming Titans team, they showed that they are vulnerable. The Broncos on paper look better than the Raiders do.

With this being a home game and a key divisional round, I believe the Denver Broncos bounce back and get the win. And here is a bonus. The No Fly Zone rebounds. Aqib Talib also snatches another chain.

Denver is 8-2-1 ATS last 11 against Oakland and the favorite is 8-1-1 ATS last 10 in this series. The Broncos are the better defensive team, allowing just 59.7 rushing yards per game. Von Miller and company will be in Carr’s face all game.

According to my algorithms, I have this game at a Tier 3. I have the Broncos winning 28-17, 34-24, and 30-21. 

NFL 100 GOLD GAME GOM

BENGALS -3

Cincinnati has been bad; Cleveland has been even worse. The Bengals showed some encouraging signs of progress against Green Bay but simply could not get the defensive stop they needed at the end of regulation in order to prevent overtime. Progress should be expected, because they feature veterans at key offensive positions in Dalton and Green. Cleveland, on the other hand, is sporting a rookie quarterback who is struggling mightily and not getting much help. Cincinnati is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 on the road, 10-4 ATS in its last 14 against losing opponents, and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 on grass. The Browns are 6-22-1 ATS in their last 29 overall, 2-8 ATS in their last 10 at home, 1-6 ATS in their last seven against losing opponents, 5-21 ATS in their last 26 following a loss, 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 against the AFC, 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 on grass, and 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings between the two teams. Expect those trends to continue.

According to my algorithms, I have a Tier 1! Bengals win 24-17.

NFL 100 DIME MEGA MOVE

SAINTS -3

This game will be played overseas and this is a big game for both teams, especially for the Saints, who are looking to get back to .500 for the year, after a 0-2 start. Miami looked horrible on offense in their loss to the Jets and their defense struggled against Josh McCown. Now they take on one of the best QBs in this league and a New Orleans offense that has looked very good so far. The Saints just took out the Panthers on the road, so they are playing with some confidence right now, while the Dolphins have to be questioning themselves after losing 20-6 to the Jets. The Dolphins struggled against the pass in the preseason and that has carried over to the regular, so they don’t really have that big of an edge on defense, while the Saints have a huge edge on offense, especially with Brees over Cutler. I look for the Saints to build off of last weeks road win over Carolina and take this one by at least seven points.

The Saints are 7-1 ATS when playing on the grass. According to my algirthms, I have the Saints winning 34-23. Tier 4 Game.

EXECUTIVE PLAY 100 DIME GOY

This one has the makings of a high scoring affair as both teams can pile up points but they struggle to slow the opposition. This could easily turn into whichever team that makes one or two stops winning the game. Colorado State has been effective offensively and had an extra week to prep for this contest. Hawaii scuffled at key times against Wyoming and it cost them. Look for Colorado State, with the extra week of rest, to overcome the time difference and travel factor to come up with the win here.

Colorado St. is 7-0 ATS in Conference games. According to my algorithms, I have Colorado St. winning 45-34.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL 100 DIME MEGA MOVE GOY

USC-4

USC is a very high octane team, that can put numbers on the board. Washington St. is coming in this game 4-0, but they haven't played anybody good. Washington St. will struggle when they play one of College Football's best team in the country. USC is  5-0 ATS last 5 in this series. I expect a lot of turnovers with the Washington St. ground attack. It's not the best in my eyes. I have USC pulling the blowout 42-23. Lay the money on USC!

NFL 100 DIME LATE GAME MOVE

RAIDERS -3

The Raiders are the more talented team on paper, the Redskins certainly could make Sunday night’s game interesting. Kirk Cousins could put up good numbers against an Oakland defense that has given up its share of yards to the Titans and Jets.

The running game could play a big role in this one if either team wants to try and control the clock with extended drives. That puts more pressure on Marshawn Lynch for the Raiders and Washington’s three-headed backfield, which includes a banged-up Rob Kelley.

This is a long road trip for Oakland, coming all the way across the country, but the Redskins just got back from west coast themselves after facing the Rams last Sunday. With a national television audience watching, look for the Raiders to make just enough plays on offense to squeeze out a big road win.

The algorithms are a Tier 1. I have the Raiders winning 30-17

NFL 100 DIME STRIP CLUB MOVE

CHIEFS -3

Alex Smith loves playing in southern California. As a Chief Alex Smith has a 109.0 passer rating in away games vs the Chargers. Smith will have another impressive game (250-plus passing yards, two touchdowns) thus adding more fuel to the Alex Smith has changed phenomenon. I wanted to say the Chargers will score less than 17 because I don't think the Chargers offensive line will hold up well against the Chiefs pass rush. This game could get ugly quick as Philip Rivers tries to do too much and eventually turns the ball over. Talent-wise the Chiefs are superior to the Chargers in nearly every position group. The Chargers will have to devise the perfect game plan to win this game, while the Chiefs just need to be average to win. The only thing making this game seem closer than it actually is will be the garbage time touchdown the Chargers always seem to score against the Chiefs.

According to my algorithms, I have the Chargers winning 30-20 and 28-17. 

EXECUTIVE GOLD GAME 150 DIME GOY

RAVENS -3

The Jaguars are in a tough spot, and after losing Allen Robinson for the season to a torn ACL, their passing attack is going to struggle against the Ravens. To go along with that, rookie running back Leonard Fournette won’t have easy sledding against a defense that’s allowed just 85 rushing yards per game.

This game is the money game, and the algorithms are a tier 2. I have the Ravens winning 27-13, and 34-16. Lay the money on the Ravens.

STRIP CLUB MOVE 100 DIME GAME

Blowouts of Charleston Southern and Louisiana Tech were nice, but Mississippi State took its talents to another level last weekend. In addition to Fitzgerald and the offense, MSU’s defense limited the Tigers to 270 yards of total offense. The home team won the time of possession battle by 11 minutes and 50 seconds. Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in its last five overall, 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a win by more than 20 points, and 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing less than 20 points in its previous outing. Georgia is 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, 2-7 ATS in its last nine following a win, and 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 after scoring more than 40 points in its previous outing. Count on those trends continuing.

According to my algorithms, I have this game within 3 points of either team. Should be a low scoring game!

HIGH ROLLER 100 DIME GOM

Both schools really looked good last week, but both have played against weak teams. The Arizona Wildcats ran for a bundle of yards on the UTEP Miners, but the defense they face in this one will not be so easy to conquer.

The Utes led the league in run defense last year and they are lead by a defensive line that rates first in the PAC-12 and 7th in the country. The Arizona defense was one of the worst in the league last year, especially their pass defense. That could be a big problem as Mr. Carrington is one of the better wide outs in Division I ball.

Tyler Huntley is hot and should have a very good game against the Wildcats. I look for Utah to win this one by at least seven points. Also, the odds makers have this game’s over/under at 60. This could go either way in my opinion, but the Wildcats would have to score their fair share to get that done. The Utah defense is just to good to lay your money against that in this game. The Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games, while The Wildcats are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Take Utah -3 and watch their defense along with Huntley to Carrington be the deciding factor.

NFL 75 DIME INSIDE MOVE GOW

This game sets up for low scoring, with two offenses searching for the plays that could give their defenses a lift. Beckham Jr. holds the keys to this one, and if he's out, the Lions are likely to have too much more than the Giants on offense. But indications are he'll play, and that schematic advantage will help a New York team desperate to avoid an 0-2 start, playing at home on national TV. Between Beckham Jr.'s plays and some Lions special-teams mistakes that won't all disappear in just one week, the Giants get a little bit more scoring to take this one.

According to my algorithms, I have the Giants winning 24-17.

NFL 75 DIME GAME

Seattle’s defense did a fine job in Week 1, limiting Aaron Rodgers and the high-powered Packers to just 17 points. With Rawls back, the offense should improve and the defense should be even better given that it will get some rest in between series. And the opponent (San Francisco), of course, is nothing like Green Bay. The 49ers are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 overall, 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 on the road, 3-9 ATS in their last 12 against the NFC, 2-6 ATS in their last eight against losing opponents, 3-10 ATS in their last 13 following a loss, 1-9-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings between the two teams, and 0-5-1 ATS in their last six on the road against the Seahawks. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home, 6-2 ATS in its last eight on fieldturf, and 20-8 ATS in its last 28 following a loss. Expect those trends to continue.

According to my algorithms, I have the Seahawks winning 27-10

NFL 100 DIME GAME

The Rams looked good last week! Rams QB Jared Goff was (21-for-29 passing), one-TD performance was easily the best of his pro career. He distributed the ball well too, as three players had five or more receptions, and four different men tallied 50 or more yards – rookie Cooper Kupp’s four catches for 76 yards and a TD led the way, while team newbie Sammy Watkins was efficient, hauling in all five targets for 58 yards.

The Rams run game was a little quite, but things worked out great for them. The Rams have made adjustments with coaching.  I like this particular matchup with the Redskins. The Redskins are not a money team, but the algorithms are tier 3.

According to my algorithms, I have the Rams winning 34-17, 28-20, and 23-16. Lay the money on the Rams.

NFL 100 DIME GOM

The Chiefs are coming off of a win of their own as well, defeating the New England Patriots last Thursday in very impressive fashion, highlighted by big games from rookie running back Kareem Hunt and receiver Tyreek Hill. When matching up both teams, the Chiefs simply have too many weapons on offense than this team is currently built to contain. If the Eagles running game goes for over 100 yards and keeps Alex Smith off the field, and Wentz connects with Alshon Jeffery and Torrey Smith for multiple long touchdown passes.

This game will be high scoring! I do like the overs here, and the algorithms are a tier 2! I have the Chiefs winning 34-24 and 28-21. Lay the Money on the Chiefs -5.

STRIP CLUB MOVE 125 DIME GOY

 San Diego State has won 20 of their previous 23 games and will look to record back-to-back wins against Pac-12 schools.

San Diego State is off to a 2-0 start this year with wins over UC-Davis at home and at Arizona State. The Aztecs are also 1-1 against the spread this season. San Diego State is allowing just 18.5 points and 328.5 yards per game right now, including just 50.5 rushing yards per contest. The offense is putting up 34 points per game and an impressive 277.5 rushing yards per contest. Rashaad Penny has been tough to stop. He has 413 yards on 39 carries with three touchdowns through two games. Juwan Washington is adding 122 rushing yards while Christian Chapman has 293 passing yards with three touchdowns.

San Diego State is allowing just 18.5 points and 328.5 yards per game right now, including just 50.5 rushing yards per contest. The offense is putting up 34 points per game and an impressive 277.5 rushing yards per contest. Rashaad Penny has been tough to stop. He has 413 yards on 39 carries with three touchdowns through two games. Juwan Washington is adding 122 rushing yards while Christian Chapman has 293 passing yards with three touchdowns.

This game scores a Tier 4. I have San Diego pulling the upset 24-21. 

BOOKIE BLOWOUT 100 DIME GOM

The line opened up at Clemson football -4.5. It has dropped some places to the Tigers -3, which means a lot of the money is coming in on the Cardinals.Despite that fact, I will take Clemson minus the 3. The Tigers, in my opinion, will be able to take advantage of Louisville’s weak defense and score some points early. That will give Kelly Bryant confidence going forward and the offense will look a lot more in sync as the game progresses.

Louisville will score some points on the Clemson defense, as well, but they won’t be able to keep up as the Tigers’ dominant front-seven provides pressure on Lamar Jackson.

The algorithms are a Tier 2 Strong! I have Clemson winning 35-23 and 42-30. Lay the money on Clemson for the win.

OFFSHORE MOVE 150 DIME GOY

Rosen and UCLA’s offense will have their way in this game, but so will the Tigers’ backfield, making it possible for both teams to get an even share in time of possessions.

Rosen is going to light up the air against Memphis. After all, the Tigers don’t have that imposing defense that’s making Rosen lose some sleep over it. It doesn’t even matter who’s downfield for Rosen. 

Caleb Wilson led the team in receptions and receiving yards with 15 and 208 respectively against the Aggies, but got only three catches for 31 yards versus Hawaii. The receiving leader of the Hawaii game? Theo Howard, who had seven catches for 110 receiving yards – almost four times more than the 32 receiving yards on two catches he had against Texas A&M. Rosen could easily make a star out of his wideouts and a mockery of opposing defenses. 

The Memphis defense will have some issues against a team that averages 529 yards per game.

According to my algorithms, I have a 1st Tier blowout! UCLA wins 45-38

NFL 100 DIME MEGA MOVE GOW

Vikings/Saints 48 Under

Minnesota seemed well on its way to repeat as NFC North champions and contend for a Super Bowl berth at the start of 2016. The Vikings went into their bye week riding high at 5-0. After the time off, they stumbled to four straight losses, two of those within the division. A 3-4 finish left Minnesota looking on the outside in of the playoffs. The offseason saw the departure of numerous veterans, including Peterson, the franchise’s career rushing leader. Can the replacements get the Vikings back to the postseason?

The Vikings will put some pressure on the pass defense, and keep Brees limited from his air attack. I expect this game to be more ground attack, and low scoring. 

The algorithms are 2 tiers strong. I have Vikings winning 23-20, and I have the Saints winning 24-17. The Value is in the under.

INSIDE MOVE 125 DIME GAME GOM

Though the Steelers have lost to the Cleveland Browns only five times since 2000 (most recently in 2014), this year's version of their divisional rival might not be so easy to knock off. 

Their defense might just be the most talented and deep Cleveland has had since returning to the league in 1999, thanks to a combination of savvy drafting and player acquisition as well as the hiring of Gregg Williams this year to serve as defensive coordinator. The result, at least, was the Browns winning all four preseason and holding their opponents to 29 points.

Yes, the regular season is different than the preseason. But Cleveland's performance during the summer at least implies the Steelers may have to put up more of a fight against the Browns this year.

Further, the combination of quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, receivers Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant and running back Le'Veon Bell have not been on the field together since 2015, with Bell holding out the entire summer and Bryant spending all of 2016 suspended. There may be some rust there that also keeps the Steelers' point total down.

Still, the Steelers should emerge with a close win in a low-scoring game. At the very least, a rusty Steelers offense remains at an advantage over Cleveland's, which features a slew of young players that includes rookie DeShone Kizer at quarterback.

According to my algorithms, I have the Steelers winning 24-13. Lay the money on the under.

High Roller 100 Dime GOY

The Utah Utes had a solid 9-4 season a year ago, but they may have to take a step back this year as they have just nine starters back overall. They did beat North Dakota in their opener by a score of 37-16, but the level of competition will go way up in this one. Utah has just four starters back on offense and gone is leading rusher Joe Williams, who had 1407 yards last year, but they have some experience at that spot as Zach Moss was 2nd on the team last year with 382 yards and two TDs. He is the number one back this year and had a solid outing in their win over the Flying Hawks as he ran for 128 yards and a TD on 22 carries (5.82 ypc). He should have a good year. Tyler Huntley got his first career start at QB and was solid as he hit 23 of 32 passes for 227 yards, with a TD and an INT. This is still a very average offense and will have a tough time topping the 29.8 ppg that they put up last year.

BYU offense is not a good this year. They lack a lot of maturity, and I have Utah winning 24-17.

MEGA MOVE 100 DIME EXECUTIVE PLAY

Last year the Buckeyes visited Norman, Okla., and defeated the Sooners 45-24. Oklahoma comes to Ohio Stadium on Saturday seeking revenge with two-time Heisman finalist quarterback Baker Mayfield behind one of the best offensive lines in the country. Oklahoma lost its other Heisman finalist, wide receiver Dede Westbrook, and the two-headed monster of running backs Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon to the NFL. This year OSU has a two-headed monster of its own. Mike Weber returns from injury and joins freshman standout J.K. Dobbins, who gained 205 yards from scrimmage at Indiana in the Buckeyes’ opener.

OSU struggled in the first half against Indiana as the Buckeyes displayed a lack of trust in the run game and an overcommitment to the passing game. Indiana often dropped eight men into coverage, essentially daring the Buckeyes to run the ball. OSU quarterback J.T. Barrett had some difficulty finding open receivers until Dobbins found success on the ground and forced Indiana to play with more men in the box.

If Ohio State can establish the running game early on against Oklahoma, the Buckeyes will be able to control the tempo and scoreboard. The Scarlet and Gray should be able to combat the Sooners’ strong offensive line with the best defensive front in the country, which held Indiana to only 17 rushing yards. The Buckeyes will control the line of scrimmage and outrun the Sooners to victory. According to my algorithms, I have Ohio State 48, Oklahoma 24

COLLEGE FOOTBALL 100 DIME GAME GOM

The Arkansas Razorbacks looked very good in their opener and they look like they have the kind of offense that Bret Bielema cherishes and that is a ground and pound style. The problem for the Hogs this year will be a defense that rates as one of the worst in the SEC and that is not good for them in this one as they are going up against a TCU squad that has 10 starters back on offense and should average over 40.0 ppg this year. Arkansas has a solid offense, but the Horned Frogs have a solid defense. Arkansas is in the SEC, but they don’t have a SEC defense and that should allow the Horned Frog to put plenty of points on the board against them, while TCU’s defense will keep the Arkansas offense in check. 

I have TCU winning 43-31

COLLEGE FOOTBALL 75 DIME GAME

I am taking Purdue in this contest. Purdue gave the 16th ranked Louisville Cardinals a good fight last week and were able to score 28 points, so I am confident they can build on that performance. David Blough and Elijah Sindelar combined to throw four touchdowns last week and Ohio’s pass defense is not very strong, so I expect Purdue to have success in the air. Also, Ohio lost most of their top receivers from last season and they don’t have a quarterback with proven experience. In addition, Purdue’s defense is expected to be improved over last season.

I have Purdue winning 34-23.

NFL 100 DIME GAME

This could potentially get out of hand. The Patriots first-team offense could have scored 30 points in the first half against the Lions in the third preseason game and despite Edelman being out, it’s still arguably the best in the AFC and football. The defense isn’t getting as much credit as it deserves considering it led the league in points allowed last season. There are some questions up front, but as is always the case, Bill Belichick and staff figure things out. Expect the Patriots to go up early and never look back.

According to my algorithms, I have the Patriots 34-17

INSIDE MOVE 100 DIME GOM

After a long offseason full of questions and recovery, the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders will make their season debut against a team they know all too well, the Vanderbilt Commodores. Scheduled to kickoff at 7 pm Central on CBS Sports Network, this game proves to be a great barometer for the success of these two teams this season.

Middle Tennessee will be led on offense once again by a healthy Brent Stockstillwith plenty of weapons around him. On defense, the Raiders also return a lot of talent and leadership that should help with the implementation of new Defensive Coordinator Scott Shafer's system. The biggest question this season for the Raiders will be the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. If they can find the right combination of newcomers there, this team will be very dangerous.

Vanderbilt returns one of the best running backs in the SEC in Ralph Webb along with quarterback Kyle Shurmur, who we can expect to get the ball in Webb's hands as much as possible. On defense, Vandy obviously lost star Zach Cunningham to the NFL, but return a lot of talent otherwise. It will definitely be a very tough test right out of the game for the MTSU offensive line to protect Brent Stockstill.

I stick firmly to the idea that this game will be a shootout, similar to Mizzou vs MTSU last season. I'm not sure either team has a true answer to the offenses in this game. In the end, I think this game comes down to which offense hurts itself the most via penalties and turnovers.

I like Vanderbilt to pull the Victory 42-34. Lay the money on the over.

COLLEGE FOOTBALL 75 DIME GAME

Utah State is going to be better than it was last year and has an offense that can move the football. However, there's levels to this game, and Wisconsin is a deep team that plays hard and smart. Yes, the Badgers lost a few key players here and there, but this is a team that will continue to beatup on lesser comp, and that's the boat the Aggies fall in. Not to mention Utah State has been downright awful against the number the last two seasons. While four touchdowns is a lot to lay in a season opener, this is a game the Wisconsin Badgers should run away with in the second half thanks to its defense getting stops.

According to my algorithms, I have the Badgers winning 43-3

SUPERBOWL GAME 200 DIME GOY

The Patriots' defense has been terrific, but it hasn't faced anything close to the Falcons' high-flying offense this season. The real matchup to watch, and more critical for the NFC team, is Atlanta's young defenders vs. Brady.

There's a lot of speed, quickness and toughness in coach Dan Quinn's group. The Falcons' secondary has compensated well for the loss of shutdown corner Desmond Trufant. Their green linebackers have grown up fast and get around the field in a hurry, led by pass-rushing beast Vic Beasley Jr.

They are aggressive and hard-hitting, but Brady needs to get to them before they can get to him. He'll find good mismatches in the middle of the field, and the Patriots can counteract the Falcons' strengths with Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman.

Brady should also get consistent support from LeGarrette Blount in the power running game to open up a few shots downfield to AFC title game hero Chris Hogan. Although the Falcons will be a little prepared for this based on facing their own offense in practice, the Patriots' specific versatility within their scheme is difficult to slow down. The Falcons' weaknesses in the red zone will be exploited by both run and pass.

That leaves it to Ryan to match Brady drive for drive. So far, few teams have been able to keep up with Ryan in the NFC. The Patriots will do their best to take Jones out of the game, but the Falcons will know this and make sure they get all their other targets involved. Out of the backfield, it's extremely challenging to slow down both Freeman and Coleman because how well their skill sets are used in the ideal situations.

Atlanta OC Kyle Shanahan, SN's Coordinator of the Year for 2016, will have utmost confidence he can match wits with New Endland defensive coordinator Matt Patricia. The Falcons will stay in it by avoiding turnovers and consistently scoring.

According to my analysis, I have the Patriots winning 30-24. 

NFL CHAMPIONSHIP 100 DIME GAME

The Patriots have been unstoppable this year. I like the Patriots to put the heat on a weak Steelers Secondary. I don't expect the Steelers to keep up with the pace. I have the Patriots winning 28-17

INSIDE MOVE 100 DIME GOY

Atlanta is on a roll and their offense is incredibly potent, especially at home. The two-headed monster of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman is enough to give the Packers defense fits and then throw in Julio Jones and the Falcons receivers and it's a tough task for Dom Capers and his crew.  But the Packers are scoring just as often, match up well against Atlanta's defense and they have Aaron Rodgers, something Atlanta does not.  Matt Ryan may be MVP but no one is dealing like Rodgers right now.  This shoot out ends with the Packers celebrating another trip to the Super Bowl and culminating an incredible run, rising like the Phoenix when all seemed lost just two months ago.

According to my analysis, I have Green Bay winning 38-30.

GOLD GAME TOTALS 100 DIME GOY

Atlanta is on a roll and their offense is incredibly potent, especially at home. The two-headed monster of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman is enough to give the Packers defense fits and then throw in Julio Jones and the Falcons receivers and it's a tough task for Dom Capers and his crew.  But the Packers are scoring just as often, match up well against Atlanta's defense and they have Aaron Rodgers, something Atlanta does not.  Matt Ryan may be MVP but no one is dealing like Rodgers right now.  This shoot out ends with the Packers celebrating another trip to the Super Bowl and culminating an incredible run, rising like the Phoenix when all seemed lost just two months ago.

According to my analysis, I have Green Bay winning 38-30.

NFL 150 DIME INSIDE MOVE

Roethlisberger had a bad finish to the wild-card rout of Miami, but he had his best game of 2016 in Week 4, when he dropped 300 yards and 5 TDs on Kansas City. He hasn’t been the best road QB, but it’s a whole lot easier when Bell rumbles for big yardage at will.

Bell wasn’t even at the same full power and speed then, but still racked up 178 yards on 23 touches. The Chiefs’ run defense has become more vulnerable without inside linebacker Derrick Johnson. The Steelers’ defense matches up very well with the Chiefs’ offense all-around. It can contain running back Spencer Ware and versatile wideout Tyreek Hill, and it will get consistent pressure on Alex Smith.

According to my analysis, I have the Steelers winning 28-17.

EXECUTIVE MOVE 150 DIME GOY

The Packers are missing a lot of Key Players, and I expect them to struggle again. The Cowboys are hot, and have a couple returning players for this specific game. According to my algoritms, I have the Cowboys winning 34-24

HIGH ROLLER 200 DIME GOY

Alabama is the greatest team in College Football! The public is giving to much credit to Clemson's QB Deshaun Watson who is a great QB! Alabama is a structured team with all superstars! According to my algorithms, I have Alabama winning 35-17 

INSIDE MOVE 100 DIME GOY

I am siding with the Texans with this smaller spread. The Raiders are a deflated team with the injury to MVP candidate Derek Carr and I cannot see them winning this game. The Texans own the number two ranked pass defense in the NFL, so I cannot see McGloin or Cook doing much in the air, and Houston has also had success stopping the run, so it will not be easy for Murray. The Texans will run the ball frequently and Oakland owns the 23rd ranked rush defense in the NFL, so I expect Miller to have success on the ground. The Texans defense will allow them to win this game and cover the points. 

According to my analysis, I have the Texans winning 24-13

SUGAR BOWL 100 DIMES GOY

Points! Oklahoma's defense might get picked apart by Auburn's multi-threat rushing attack, but at the same time it's hard to imagine Mayfield getting totally shut given the weapons at his disposal. Ultimately, I think the Auburn defensive front comes up with enough stops to give Gus the leverage he needs to keep a touchdown distance from the Sooners in a shootout of a Sugar Bowl.

I have Auburn winning 34-28.

ROSE BOWL 100 DIME GOY 

These are two of the hottest teams in the country. Penn State is coming off a Big Ten championship and narrowly missed out on the College Football Playoff. USC has won eight straight games after losing three of their first four games.

The game is full of playmakers. Saquon Barkley is one of the best running backs in the country and brings a physical style of running to the game. Likewise, USC running back Ronald Jones has no problem running through defenders.

USC’s Adoree Jackson does everything for the Trojans. Jackson plays cornerback, wide receiver and even returns punts.

USC has just a bit more talent than Penn State that will give them the edge in a game that comes down to the wire. This could be one of the closest games this bowl season.

According to my analysis, I have Penn St winning 28-24.

NFL 100 DIME INSIDE MOVE GOY

FIESTA BOWL 150 DIME GOY

Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer will have had over a month to prepare for this game.

At the 2015 Sugar Bowl, he and his staff devised a game plan that allowed Ezekiel Elliott to run for 230 yards and two touchdowns against an Alabama defense that gave up an average of 88.7 rushing yards that year.

Of course, neither Weber nor Samuel is as good as Elliott, and Tom Herman is no longer Ohio State's offensive coordinator. Still, it wouldn't be wise to bet against Meyer finding a way to avoid a repeat of the Michigan game.

I have Ohio State winning by 4 points.

ORANGE BOWL 100 DIME GOY

Michigan sat at 9-0 and had its eyes on a spot in the College Football Playoff. Oops. The Wolverines lost two of their last three games to finish the season with a 10-2 record and no shot at the playoff. After losing to Ohio State by a score of 30-27 in double overtime, Michigan lost its chance at a Big Ten Title and a playoff berth. Now the Wolverines get a tough test in the Florida State Seminoles.

The Seminoles got absolutely demolished by Louisville in Week 3, and then lost again in Week 5, to North Carolina. After that, it appears that Florida State woke up and started playing football. In its final seven games, FSU went 6-1 with the only loss coming in a 37-34 loss to Clemson. The Seminoles ended their season by crushing in-state rival Florida.

This game will be within 3 points.

Miami will get its first bowl win in a decade when it uses big plays and an opportunistic defense to get past West Virginia.

Kaaya will be comfortable behind an improving offensive line, throwing for more than 300 yards and three touchdowns against the Mountaineers defense. Richards will be on the receiving end of two of those scores to cap his sensational freshman season.

The Mountaineers will bring plenty of fight, and Crawford will chew up Miami's usually solid run defense for 150 yards on 20 carries. Howard will throw two touchdowns, but the Hurricanes will the turnover battle, which will be the difference in a game that goes down to the wire.

HOLIDAY BOWL 100 DIME GOY

Both teams did not finish their season’s on an up note, but both can walk into the postseason with some momentum by grabbing a win in this game. The Golden Gophers have motivational issues for this one as they nearly boycotted the game due to player suspensions, but they Cougars could also be less than motivated as they could have played in the Pac-12 Title game, but came up a bit short. I don’t feel that the Cougars will be less than motivated for this game. They will have more motivation than Minnesota will and they also have the far better offense, plus this game is on the west coast and the Gophers have struggled to defend the pass. One thing you need when facing the Cougars is a deep defense and six of the players suspended were on the defensive side of the ball, plus they may also be with DB Alexander Sparks, who is listed as questionable. A deplete defense and an offense that can’t pass the ball should spell doom for Minnesota in this one. Cougars in a rout.  

INDEPENDCE BOWL 100 DIME GOY

The best matchup in this game will be the NC State front seven against Vanderbilt’s running game and that will certainly be fun to watch. But the most interesting question I have is, what will the Commodores do when the Wolfpack load the box? Whether or not Kyle Shurmur can make plays through the air against a susceptible defense is really the most intriguing storyline here. That may end up deciding the winner. Both of these teams finished the season strong and are plenty capable of leaving Shreveport with a victory. But the way Vanderbilt played in the last two weeks of the season was even more impressive. The Commodores will get it done in a tight game.

QUICK LANE BOWL 100 DIME GOY

The Terps are more battle-tested and the month off can only help heal some of their injured players. As good as Boston College’s defense is, they still allowed 49 points at Virginia Tech, 56 at Clemson, 52 against Louisville and 45 against Florida State. Walt Bell’s offense has a month to figure out how to block Landry and get the ball in the hands of the Terps’ playmakers. This should be a low-scoring game but the Terps get the win in the dome.

NFL 100 DIMES CHRISTMAS GOY

The Denver offense has scored a combined 13 points in their last two games and have been unable to match the play of their stellar defense.

Both teams are fighting for different things. Kansas City still has a chance to win the AFC West and secure the second seed in the AFC that would give the Chiefs a first round bye. Denver needs to win out and have help to have a chance at making the playoffs.

Like the computer, Heavy likes the Chiefs to come up with the home victory. The play of the Broncos has dropped since the last time these two teams played. Look for the Chiefs defense to pounce on a weak Broncos offense as they give the fans at Arrowhead a Christmas victory.

I have the Chiefs winning 17-10

NFL 100 DIMES GOLD GOY

Dak Prescott finally looked like a rookie passer, Dez Bryant fell flat on his face, and the Cowboys offense appeared to be solved.

The reality is the ill effects came from the team’s first time to play in harsh weather conditions.

While there are several reasons I see Dallas bouncing back with a solid performance to reclaim NFC dominance, none are more telling than this aspect…

Three times this season Prescott has posted a QB rating below 100. Week 1 against New York (69.4), Week 8 against Philly (79.8), and Week 14 in the Giants rematch (45.4).

After the previous two sub-100 QBR performances, Dak unloaded his frustrations the following game.

In both redemption games Dak had no mercy…Week 2 against Washington (73% completions, 104.3 QBR) and Week 9 against Cleveland (78% completions, 141.8 QBR).

Look for the Cowboys to open up the passing game and allow Prescott to prove his mettle.

Final Score: Dallas Cowboys 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23

NFL 150 DIMES HIGH ROLLER GAME

The Chargers get a Raiders team playing for their 1st playoff appearance since 2002. The Chargers are playing for... a coach who's just another guy, health, next contract, a roster spot either in San Diego or elsewhere. I expect the Chargers will be game for a while on the back of Philip Rivers, who refuses to allow this team to roll over and die, and who will have opportunities to exploit Oakland's shaky secondary. But on defense, it's too easy for me to see Derek Carr throwing to whoever isn't covered by Casey Hayward. On offense, SD's below average OTs will eventually allow Khalil Mack to impact the game by forcing in completions or turnovers. Add in what I expect to be at least a 4/3 crowd favoring the Raiders... Raiders 34, Chargers 24.

NFL 100 DIMES MEGA MOVE GAME

The Titans are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 road games and 13-37-3 ATS in their last 53 games overall. The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Kansas City and the road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

The Kansas City Chiefs have had a mini bye week to prepare for this game considering they played last Thursday, and that's huge after the Titans played a physical game against the Denver Broncos on Sunday. The Titans are a feel good story this season, but you have to question if this success is happening too fast and winning in Kansas City is a different ball game. The Chiefs continue to roll off victory after victory and are starting to cover games with more consistency. You almost have no choice to take the Kansas City Chiefs by a touchdown. Betting against KC right now isn't a wise move given how it keeps finding ways to win.

According to my analysis, I have the Titans winning 17-14.

NFL 100 DIME GAME

The Bucs are a team on the rise with NFC South title hopes dancing in their heads. The Saints have dominated Tampa Bay in recent years, but this season is different.

Winston, Mike Evans and Cameron Brate will make some plays and Tampa’s defense will do just enough to get the Buccaneers a rare win over the Saints.

I have the Bucs pulling the win 24-17

NFL 75 DIME INSIDE MOVE

The Titans build off their run game, and then let Marcus Mariota air it out with playaction passing. Mariota has at least 270 yards passing in four of his last five outings, and has played five of his last six games without throwing an interception.

The Broncos are led by Trevor Siemian, who will return to action after missing last week’s game with a foot injury. Paxton Lynch started last week and earned his first career victory as a starter.

The Titans have failed to rush for 100 yards three times this season, and they’re 0-3 in those games. The Broncos are 8-4 against the spread this season, but a well-rested Titans team should push around the Broncos defense.

I have the Titans winning 21-17

NFL 100 DIMES GAME

Come follow the money. The Wiseguys and myself are laying the money big!

NFL 100 DIME GAME

This game will be a chest match... I expect both teams to play conservative, and keep the ball on the ground. According to my algorithms, I have Seattle winning 17-13

NFL 80 DIME GAME

The Raiders have been of fire! I like the Raiders at home to pull the money victory. It's just too hard to pick against the Raiders with the roll they are on.  They are not always winning in the most impressive fashion, but they are continuing to win.  In the words of the franchises former legendary owner, Al Davis, “Just Win Baby!”  If Davis was alive today he would be proud that his team is doing just that.  The Bills are formidable and should push Oakland to the limit, just like most teams have this season, but look for the Raiders to continue to prevail.

NFL 125 DIME GAME

I’ve been watching Kansas City for two weeks,” Talib said of what he did during his time off. “It’s always good when we get in that huddle and you see everybody–all the guys. It’ll be good. We’re well-rested. We should come out and play real fast.” A full Denver defense on board is bad news for a Kansas City offense that has been one of the worst in the NFL this season. The Chiefs are 3-8 AtS in their last 11 on the road against opponents with winning home records, 4-9 ATS in their last 13 on grass, and 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings between the two teams. Denver is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 overall, 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight at home, and 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight against the AFC. Count on those trends continuing. 

I have the Broncos winning 34-24

NFL 100 DIME GAME

NFL 75 DIME GAME

NFL 100 DIME GAME

NFL 100 DIME GAME

NFL 75 DIMES TOTALS GAME

NFL 100 DIME GAME

CFB 100 DIME GAME

CFB 75 DIME GAME

NFL 75 DIME GAME

NFL 75 DIME GAME

NFL 75 DIME GAME

NFL 100 DIME GAME

NFL 100 DIME GAME

The streak keeps rolling and the Dolphins keep stating their case as a playoff threat. If they’re for real, which they seem to be, they won’t have any trouble with a Rams team that barely squeaked by the Jets last week to avoid a five-game losing streak. Los Angeles will go with No. 1 pick Jared Goff, and while he might be great someday, that day won’t be his NFL debut against Cameron Wake and Ndamukong Suh. Dolphins 20, Rams 10

NFL 100 DIME GAME

Baltimore’s defense is capable of keeping Dallas from going crazy on the scoreboard. What is questionable is a lackluster Ravens offense that will have a tough row to hoe against a Cowboys defense that is pretty good in its own right. Dallas is slightly vulnerable against the pass due to some key injuries in the secondary, so much of Baltimore’s hopes rest squarely on the arm of Joe Flacco and his veteran core of receivers. If Flacco is at his very best, the Ravens stand a decent chance of leaving AT&T Stadium with their third victory in a row. The problem is that even good performances have been a rarity for the veteran quarterback so far this season.

The Baltimore defense is good enough to keep it interesting regardless of Flacco’s performance. However, the Cowboys avoid the upset at home to keep the momentum rolling with their ninth win in a row and first-ever against the Ravens. 

According to my analysis, I have the Ravens winning 24-20.

NFL 100 DIME GAME

Jay Cutler has shown that he doesn't like to be disrupted in the pocket and that he is susceptible to making the errant throw that often winds up in the hands of the opposing team. The Giants' pass rush should be able to have a field day against the mistake-prone QB, especially since his offensive line will be without Long.

I expect this game to be close since, the Giants a one dimensional kind of team. I have the Giants winning 28-23.

NFL 60 DIME TOTALS GAME

CFB 100 DIME GAME

WVU’s QB misfired on numerous throws in his team’s only loss to Oklahoma State. He also tossed two interceptions to the Cowboys. In a near loss to Texas last week, he threw three picks. Spreading the ball around that way to OU defenders, rather than Howard’s own teammates, will kill any hope of a WVU win.   Count on Howard and the rest of the Mountaineers to give a game effort, though. The Sooners probably enjoy just enough of an edge on offense to make the plays necessary to stave off WVU, but the ‘Eers are more than capable of winning this game - on the way to putting the College Football Playoff selection committee in a bind in a couple of weeks. I have West Virginia winning 28-24

CFB 100 DIME GAME

Washington suffering its first loss of the season may be a blessing in disguise for the Huskies as it may have awoken an even stronger beast.

Washington’s offense had its worst performance of the season last week, and will rebound against Arizona State’s 124th ranked defense in the nation.

Washington will bounce back while the Sun Devils will continue to struggle against the Pac 12.

I have Washington winning 45-13

CFB 100 DIME GAME

CFB 125 DIME GAME

Both offenses will light up the scoreboard, but the Hokies defense makes one big stand at the end to prevent an Irish win and knock them out of bowl contention. I have Virginia Tech winning 34-24

CFB 100 DIME GAME

Headlined by Brian Hill, Josh Allen and Tanner Gentry, Wyoming has a balanced offense that averages 443.1 yards per game and 6.3 yards per play, and is capable of moving the football against any defense, including San Diego State’s. Expect the Cowboys to give the Aztecs their toughest test since the loss to South Alabama, but because Wyoming is less likely to slow down Donnel Pumphrey and SDSU’s offense, expect the visiting team to escape with a close, hard-fought victory. Wyoming pulls the upset 28-24

CFB 100 DIME GAME

The Wildcat defense has been excellent over the last month, holding down Indiana, Ohio State and Wisconsin along the way, led by a defense that’s only allowing 145 rushing yards per game.

Minnesota has survived on turnover margin, but Northwestern doesn’t give the ball away enough to make that a problem.

Even though the Gophers averaged close to 40 points per game over a four-game run of bad teams, the ground game isn’t going to work like it’s supposed to against the Wildcats.

It’ll be a close, tough, well-played defensive game, with Minnesota pulling it off in the final moments at home.

CFB 100 DIME TOTALS GAME

This game was supposed to be played on October 8 in Gainesville, but Hurricane Matthew forced its postponement. Now, the Gators must win in a tough road environment against a team that has been playing well. For Florida, all of the injuries and lack of offense will finally catch up to them as LSU forces Appleby into some mistakes and Guice and Fournette have a big game. LSU by a touchdown. LSU wins 34-27

CFB 100 DIME GAME

The Buckeyes are 59-5 under Meyer. Two of those losses have come against the Spartans, with both ruining Ohio State’s national title hopes.

I expect Mark Dantonio and his staff to pull out all of the stops from trick plays to new formations that the Spartans haven't shown yet, to an aggressive game plan on defense, the Spartans will put all of their cards on the table on Saturday afternoon.

The weather also looks like it could be a factor with cold, rain, and wind all in the forecast which could impact Ohio State's ability to move the football through the air, something the Buckeyes have really improved on in the past couple of weeks.

I look for a fairly low scoring, grind it out type of game but think Ohio State will escape East Lansing victorious as Urban Meyer's record in revenge games is as good as it gets. Ohio State 24 Michigan State 17

CFB 125 DIME GAME

The Wildcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Bears are 29-12 ATS in their last 41 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings and the home team is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Even without Russell, Baylor is still a talented team and probably better than Kansas State in terms of raw talent. That's why I'm taking the Baylor Bears at home here. Kansas State still has issues offensively and nothing comes easy for the Wildcats despite how well coached they are. Expect Baylor to rely on its ground game and grind out a victory on senior day. Also, Baylor doesn't lose often at home. I'll take the Bears here. 

EXECUTIVE 200 DIME GOY

Louisville is coming into this game as a heavy favorite. This game will be a shootout, and I expect Houston to give Louisville the biggest fight ever! Houston's head coach is really good in calling the plays. 

The Houston Cougars were America’s darlings after upsetting Oklahoma on the opening weekend of the college football. Since then, the Cougars have lost to Navy and SMU. Houston comes into this matchup unranked and at 8-2 overall. Last weekend, the Cougars relied on their defense during a 30-18 home victory against Tulane. Houston recorded a late safety and opened up the scoring with a fumble recovery for a touchdown.
 

According to my analysis, I have Louisville winning 42-35

CFB 100 DIME TOTALS GAME

CFB 100 DIME MEGA MOVE

Kent State might not have any real offense to get excited about, but it’s a +8 over the last six games with the defense saving the mediocre O time and again.

But the defense and the team are going through a major crisis, losing All-America S Nate Holley for at least the game – and likely the rest of his career – after being suspended indefinitely following first-degree felony kidnapping charges.

Kent State is more than just Holley, and it’ll come up with stop after stop against a Bowling Green attack that won’t get a break by six takeaways from the defense this week.

According to my analysis, I have Kent St. winning 24-17

GOLD GAME 100 DIME GAME

HIGH ROLLER 100 DIME GAME

Look for Iowa's defense to feed off of the energy of the home crowd under the lights. I like Josey Jewell to play the role of enforcer early on against Michigan's tight ends. His physicality and nose for the football are going to be the difference for Iowa on defense. When Iowa has the ball, the Hawkeyes' best chance is to play keep-away with a straight-ahead, methodical rushing attack that opens things up for Beathard on play-action. This is one of those games where if Michigan can't jump out early, the Wolverines may be in for an old-school Big Ten slugfest in front of the loudest crowd they've faced in quite some time. Look for a couple of Wilton Speight interceptions to be the deciding factor in the biggest upset of the 2016 college football season. 

INSIDE MOVE 100 DIME GAME

USC's season turned when Helton inserted redshirt freshman Sam Darnold as his starting quarterback in the fourth game. That was a 31-27 loss to the Utes, who scored in the final minute, but the Trojans have ripped off five in a row since then, winning four by at least 21 points. I like the momentum on USC, and expect this game to be won by a field gold.

CFB 100 DIME GAME

The Cornhuskers normally would get the edge at home. They’ve beaten several foes in Lincoln this season, including Oregon when we thought the Ducks were going to be good. The thing is, Armstrong Jr. was knocked out for more than 15 minutes and had to be cut out of his pads Saturday night. Sure, he was cleared and came back to the sideline but you have to imagine the concussion protocol is going to take a long hard look here. Can Mike Riley afford to put him on the field after that scary incident? Fyfe didn’t impress against the Buckeyes but there aren’t many quarterbacks that would have much success in that situation. Minnesota has a power run game and a stout defense. I like their chances to go into Lincoln and come out with a victory, especially if Armstrong is out of action.

CFB 60 DIME GAME

CFB 60 DIME GAME

GOLD GAME 100 DIME GOM

It’s the beginning of the end of Baylor in 2016. And Oklahoma is the wrong opponent against which to try and reverse the course of a season. The Bears are liable to get smoked for a second straight week. Plus, once the Sooners start applying pressure to the gas pedal, Baylor won’t have the drive or the fight to mount a resistance. OU will keep rolling behind Mayfield, carrying a head of steam into next week’s crucial trip to Morgantown to play West Virginia.

According to my analysis, I have Oklahoma winning 48-35

HIGH ROLLER 100 DIME GAME

GOLD GAME 100 DIME

Both teams have matchups that decidedly favor their squad. The most obvious are advantages on the offensive side, so expect a classic, high-scoring MACtion affair.

Bowling Green quarterback James Morgan has a bright future ahead of him, and it gets a lot brighter if the Falcons can pull off this upset. The more experienced Akron should be able to score enough points on the struggling Bowling Green defense to keep the Falcons at bay, however.

According to my analysis, I have Akron winning 42-38

NFL 100 DIME GAME

The Packers' biggest challenge will be stopping the Colts' passing game. Indianapolis averages 260-yards passing per game. If the Packers defense can keep them to that number or lower, along with limiting the deep balls to T.Y Hilton and Donte Moncrief, they should come out on top.

This is a must win game for the Colts, if they want any chance of being a playoff team. The season is halfway over and they are not very close. Lambeau Field is never easy to travel to. The Packers fans will be loud and ready to cheer for Green Bay. If Aaron Rodgers performs the way he did in Atlanta, the Colts defense will have a long and rough game. Getting into the pocket to rush or sack Rodgers is a necessity but will be difficult with the Packers offensive line. 

According to my analysis, I have the Packers winning 31-28.

NFL 100 DIME GAME

The Packers' biggest challenge will be stopping the Colts' passing game. Indianapolis averages 260-yards passing per game. If the Packers defense can keep them to that number or lower, along with limiting the deep balls to T.Y Hilton and Donte Moncrief, they should come out on top.

This is a must win game for the Colts, if they want any chance of being a playoff team. The season is halfway over and they are not very close. Lambeau Field is never easy to travel to. The Packers fans will be loud and ready to cheer for Green Bay. If Aaron Rodgers performs the way he did in Atlanta, the Colts defense will have a long and rough game. Getting into the pocket to rush or sack Rodgers is a necessity but will be difficult with the Packers offensive line. 

According to my analysis, I have the Packers winning 31-28.

NFL 75 DIME INSIDE MOVE GOM

Fortunately, Carolina has the opportunity to continue its turnaround against a Los Angeles team that has lost three straight games and has plenty of its own issues. The Rams can’t get anything going on offense, even with Todd Gurley around to carry the load. Case Keenum has been inefficient and somewhat turnover-prone, while a capable defense has woefully under performed at various points. 

According to my analysis, I have the Panthers winning 24-17.

NFL 75 DIME TOTAL GAME

CDB 100 DIME GAME

The Cal Bears have proven adept at dragging teams into shootouts. Realistically, that's the only way the Golden Bears score this landscape-altering upset.

Davis Webb is one of the best quarterbacks in the Pac-12, if not the nation, and having his full array of receivers available will test the talented Washington defense. Cal will put up points, but Washington is more than capable of responding.

The two-headed backfield of Myles Gaskin and Lavon Coleman will run wild on the Bear rush defense, opening things up for Jake Browning to make some Heisman-highlight plays. His arm may not be needed too often, but it's one more weapon for Huskies head coach Chris Petersen to call on.

CFB 100 DIME GAME

NFL 100 Dime Totals GOW

FALCONS ML

The Packers’ offense appears like it might have finally found a working identity with Ty Montgomery as a focal point. But against the Falcons, I don’t think it will be enough.

The Packers are giving up just 72 rushing yards per game and have allowed just one rushing touchdown in six games. That is incredibly impressive. But Green Bay also has faced just one offense that averages more than 89 yards per game on the ground. In fact, the Packers have faced the worst running teams (Giants, Jaguars, Vikings) in the league. In their only game against a team that currently ranks higher than 24th in rushing offense, Green Bay was gashed by Dallas (No. 1 in the NFL) for 191 yards, 157 of those by rookie Ezekiel Elliott. The Falcons haven’t had the same success as the Cowboys when it comes to running the football, but Freeman (508 yards, 8th in NFL, 4.8 ypc) is plenty capable of being a thorn in the side of the Packers’ defense.

Green Bay is too injured for me to predict a win here. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are likely to connect on at least a few big plays against this depleted secondary. If Rodgers plays well enough and the Packers get an unexpected spark from a turnover or on special teams, they could very easily walk away with a victory. But I don’t think it will happen this Sunday in Atlanta.

According to my analysis, I have the Falcons winning 34-30.

NFL 100 DIME GOW

FALCONS ML

The Packers’ offense appears like it might have finally found a working identity with Ty Montgomery as a focal point. But against the Falcons, I don’t think it will be enough.

The Packers are giving up just 72 rushing yards per game and have allowed just one rushing touchdown in six games. That is incredibly impressive. But Green Bay also has faced just one offense that averages more than 89 yards per game on the ground. In fact, the Packers have faced the worst running teams (Giants, Jaguars, Vikings) in the league. In their only game against a team that currently ranks higher than 24th in rushing offense, Green Bay was gashed by Dallas (No. 1 in the NFL) for 191 yards, 157 of those by rookie Ezekiel Elliott. The Falcons haven’t had the same success as the Cowboys when it comes to running the football, but Freeman (508 yards, 8th in NFL, 4.8 ypc) is plenty capable of being a thorn in the side of the Packers’ defense.

Green Bay is too injured for me to predict a win here. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are likely to connect on at least a few big plays against this depleted secondary. If Rodgers plays well enough and the Packers get an unexpected spark from a turnover or on special teams, they could very easily walk away with a victory. But I don’t think it will happen this Sunday in Atlanta.

According to my analysis, I have the Falcons winning 34-30.