5* play on Brazil.

We feel that Brazil will be out for blood in this tournament after it’s disappointing showing in front of the home town crowd in the World Cup in 2014. If history is any precedence, then the Group B fav has to be feeling pretty confident today as it’s won six straight vs. Ecuador. Ecuador has struggled in international matches this year, dropping decisions to Columbia and the USA, while settling for draws against Paraguay and the Los Angeles Galaxy of the MLS. La Tri will also be without striker Felipe Caicedo because of a hamstring injury. Brazil is a big group favorite and was fortunate to get such a fortuitous draw with tourney long shots Peru and Haiti in the mix. BRAZIL isn’t the power-house it once was, but it has more than enough to take out inconsistent Ecuador.

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5* play on Peru.

Peru has won the Copa American twice. This will be Haiti’s first game ever in the Copa America competition. Suffice it to say, we expect Peru to come in focused and to take care of business in this favorable opening night matchup. Haiti earned a spot in the tournament after a 1-0 win over Trinidad and Tobago in the final play-offs. This is the first time the teams have met since a friendly back in 2003. Haiti will be looking to make a statement today, but Peru has the experience and we think that’ll prove to be the difference in the end. Lay the price on PERU, which could easily be a much bigger fav in our opinion.

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5* play on UNDER Costa Rica/Paraguay (2.5 -130).

Costa Rica comes into this one without top keeper Keylor Navanas, who has an Achilles heel injury. Navas led Costa Rica in 2014 to the World Cup quarterfinals before losing to Netherlands in the penalty shootout. Without its number 1 goaltender, expect Costa Rica to play even more defensively this evening. The Paraguayans are no slouches either, they actually made it to the final four in the 2015 Copa America behind a stingy defense. All signs point to goals being at a premium between these two conservative sides. Play on the UNDER.

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This is a 5* ART OF WAR on the OVER between the USA and Columbia.

When the smoke clears at the end of this one, we’re expecting this total to sail over the posted number. These clubs have met numerous times over the years, but perhaps the most famous meeting was in the 1994 World Cup, a 2-1 victory for the USA. But Columbia holds the upper-hand in major competitions with two wins, one draw and one defeat. Columbia is out for redemption after a horrible showing in last summer’s competition, scoring just one goal in four games. Keep your eyes on James Rodriguez, who will be out to prove himself after a tough year. The US is led by coach Jurgen Klinsman, who has made some progress in his tenure, but whose job is likely on the chopping block if the team has another poor showing in this tournament. It’s a perfect situation to take advantage of as each side will be pushing the pace from the outset, leading to what we believe will be a comfortable OVER.

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This is a 10* ASSASSIN on Manchester City.

This one sets up as a mental letdown spot in our opinion for the Spurs, who come in off a 1-0 win over Watford at White Hart Lane last weekend. Maurice Pochettino’s club is now second in the table and five points behind leaders Leicester City, but we feel the visitors will have their hands full with this hungry/determined City side. After falling last week, Man City needs this victory to keep pace with Leicester. While Tottenham is a decent side and also in the title race, we think that home advantage can not be overlooked today. The clincher for us is what we feel to be this extremely fair price. Play on MANCHESTER CITY.

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This is an 8* SUPER-BLOWOUT on Liverpool.

Both sides come into this one struggling, but we expect Liverpool to finally break the slide and to find a way to get the job done vs. league-worst Aston Villa. Aston Villa is 3-15-7 overall with 16 points, while Liverpool is 9-8-8 with 35 points. Aston Villas is coming off an extremely satisfying 2-0 win over newly promoted team Norwich City last time out, it had previously lost five straight matches. Liverpool is winless in five of its last six matches, it would most recently play to a 2-2 draw with bottom-feeder Sunderland AFC at the Anfield last Tuesday. We’re simply not convinced of Aston Villa though and are definitely not reading too much at all into its win over Norwich. LIVERPOOL is the better team, expect a bounce back performance here and there’s no question that the price is right as well.

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This is an 8* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the DRAW between Leicester City and Arsenal.

We think it’s a great time to pull the trigger on a “draw” in this matchup. The Leicester City Foxes just shocked Manchester City with a 3-1 victory on Saturday to go five points clear in top spot. Arsenal comes in off a 2-0 win over Bounermouth to draw even on points with second-place Tottenham. A win today for either side would be huge obviously and we expect this enormous sense of competition to result in a very even outcome. The leaders have not feared any rival they’ve faced on the road this year so after upsetting City last week, if the visitors can escape with a point on the draw they’ll obviously be completely satisfied. Arsenal has been tough at home, but the value is simply too great to turn down in the end. We’re recommending a play on the DRAW in this one.

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This is an 8* ASSASSIN on Manchester City.

We don't subscribe to any one single handicapping methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. Recognizing classic "spot bets" is something we always do as well, IE: the "look ahead" spot, the "let down" spot and the "trap" game. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest. 

This particular play is based on a few different factors:

If history is any precedence: Manchester City has to be liking its chances today, it’s unbeaten in nine straight vs. Leicester in all competitions (W5, D4). The Foxes have in fact failed to even score in the last three league meetings.

Home field advantage: Manchester City has won seven of its last eight league and cup matches at the Etihad Stadium, drawing the other. It’s won a league-high 28 points in front of the home town crowd. 

Big run, BUT …: Leicester City has lost only one of its last 17 league matches(W11, D5) and just one of its last 15 away games, buoyed by a great defensive scheme. But that said, we simply can’t see the Foxes matching pace with the incredible depth of City today. Leicester manager Claudio Ranieri is also aware of this fact: "Man City have too many dangerous players. You can play a perfect match but they'll win because they have magicians.”

The bottom line: MANCHESTER CITY’s depth and home pitch advantage proves to be too much, we look for it to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon.

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This is a 10* play on Germany in REGULATION.

I think Germany is the much better overall team and that it has gotten significantly better as the tournament has progressed, I like it to take the World Cup in regulation. The Germans are the deeper and more skilled team. Argentina lacks the offensive punch that Germany does. We can expect the Germans to drape themselves over star player Lionel Messi. Argentina was supposed to be one of the most prolific scoring teams heading into the tournament, but that’s not been the case as it’s defense has stepped up and delivered the squad into the Finals; simply put, like Brazil, the Argentinian’s are going to run into a buzzsaw today, I simply can’t see them being able to keep pace with the precision that the German’s bring to the table. Germany really came together in the quarterfinal against France, while it was just a 1-0 win, the team controlled the game from the outset. And of course no soccer fan alive today will forget the German’s 7-1 destruction of Brazil in the semifinals. Argentina would need to win a shootout to advance over Netherlands. I believe German coach Joachim Loew has found the correct formula to maximize the talent on his team and I look for them to deliver the goods. Play on GERMANY in regulation.

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This is a 10* “SEMIFINAL BLOCKBUSTER” on GERMANY TO ADVANCE (this is a “PROP” wager, being offered at -115 at most books).

I think the loss of Neymar is a significant one and look for the talented Germans to take advantage and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the day. Brazil is a deep team as well, but it’s centered around the play of Neymar, who would break his back in his team’s 2-1 win over Colombia. Replacing Neymar is impossible, he’s scored four goals and provided the corner in which Brazil went in front in the quarterfinals. Brazilian coach Luiz Felipe Scolari called the setback a “catastrophe.” Brazil has a ton of expectations on its shoulders obviously, in its last two games its taken to playing a much more physical style than what we’ve been accustomed to seeing from it in the past. Constantly fouling an opponents best player has become the norm for Brazil, but I think it will have its hands full in stopping the precision and overall depth that the German’s bring to the table. Also note that Brazil will be without the services of defenseman Thiago Silva, which is a big setback as well. There is an equal amount of pressure on the Germans, who have now made it to four straight semi-finals. Joachim Low’s team comes in with plenty of momentum and confidence though after hammering Portugal 4-0 and a convincing 1-0 win over France, an outcome that was never in doubt if you watched the game. The German midfield is built to stop the Brazilians play, and as mentioned off the top, it catches a huge break in not having to contend with Neymar. I think the Germans also have the better talent moving forward. Too many hurdles for Brazil today, look for GERMANY TO ADVANCE.

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This is a 5* “DESTRUCTION” on Netherlands.

I don’t anticipate an upset here, Netherlands has aspirations of winning the World Cup, while Costa Rica has far exceeded any of its expectations coming into the tournament. Granted, Costa Rica’s run has been an impressive one and if you’re not up to date on that, here is a quick run down: it came from behind to beat Uruguay and followed it up with a 1-0 win over Italy and then would shutout England in a meaningless match to end the Group stage. Suffice it to say, I believe this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Costa Rica. Netherlands is on a mission and will benefit in not having to face two key players from Costa Rica as Oscar Duarte has been ruled out, and his likely replacement, Roy Miller has also been ruled out due to injury. The Dutch have been the most adept in handling adveristy throughout the tournament, seemlessly switching between their famed 4-3-3 system and also a very un-Dutch like 5-3-2. Coach Louis van Gaal’s mastery of the game was apparent when the Dutch came back to beat Mexico after being down 1-0 with just 10 minutes to play in the Round of 16. Ultimately though, I feel that the Costa Rican defense will not be able to recover from the absence of Duarte and look for Robben and company to break it down eventually. NETHERLANDS keeps on finding ways to advance.

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This is a 10* “WORLD CUP QUARTER-FINAL GAME OF THE YEAR” on Colombia.

Purely from a “value” standpoint, this is an opportunity I am unable to ignore. Colombia, in my opinion, has been the best team in the tournament so far. Brazil on the other hand has looked unbelievably unpsectacular, and has looked beatable in every game it’s played. Conversely, Colombia has dominated each of its matches, set the tone early and never looked back. With a chance to shock the World, I like the Colombian’s to take it to the host Brazilian’s today. Brazil would barely make it out of the Round of 16 vs. Chile, as it was saved by the cross bar twice in the dying moments of regulation in that contest. The expectations are immense on the Brazilian players and I think they’ll have a letdown here; they clearly faded against Chile, their lack of control in the midfield will come back to haunt them vs. this unrelenting Colombian side. Brazil’s best player Neymar has been a lone bright spot, but the slight 22-year old is being asked to do too much in my opinion and the pressure is clearly wearing on him. The entire Brazilian team is on edge, they’re unbelieavably emotional and I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot. Colombia on the other hand can smell the blood; Jose Pekerman’s attacking side has set the tone with pace and skill, led by Juan Cuadrado and James Rodriguez. The biggest concern for Colombia is clearly its backline, it features two young full-backs and 38-year old captain Mario Yepes; however, while many will point out this one defeciency, I’m not entirely buying it, there’s no way that Colombia advances this far if there isn’t talent and skill back there. And speaking of defense, Brazil suffers a major blow here with the suspension of Luiz Gustavo, look for Rodriguez and Cuadrado to once again be pivotal in the outcome of this contest. In my opinion, Colombia is the better overall team and the line value is simply too great. Play on COLOMBIA.

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This is a 5* “DESTRUCTION” on France.

A couple of really good teams collide early on Monday, but I think that France’s depth and speed down the flanks will ultimately prove to be too much for the Nigerian’s and look for it to win this one in regulation. Sometimes a favorite is a favorite for a reason and in this case, France should likely be even a larger favorite here. France would outscore its opposition 8-2 in Group E. One player to keep your eyes on today is Frenchman Karim Benzema, who has three goals and two assists thus far. Nigeria is loaded with talent, but without much international experience, as the Super Eagles have never advanced very deep in the tournament; Nigeria is led by 100-cap defender Joseph Yobo and leading-scorer Peter Odemwingie. Yobo and his younger backline compatriots will have their hands full today though as they’ll have to contend with the likes of Real Madrid’s Benzema, Arsenal’s Olivier Giroud and Juventus’s Pogba, a trio that has totaled 35 international scores. While the Nigerian’s have one of the best netminders in the World in Vincent Enyeama, France captain Hugo Lloris is also an elite player following a spectacular campaign with Tottenham. Expect a consistent, methodical attack from FRANCE for the regulation win.

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This is a 10* “WORLD CUP GOAL” on the Netherlands.

Both teams have been really impressive to this point, but I think the overall skill and depth that Netherlands possesses will be just too much for Mexico to overcome. Charasmatic Mexican coach Miguel Herrera led his team to four points and second place in a tough group which contained Brazil, Cameroon and Croatia. Herrera has taken the leash off his strikers, the midfield three of Andres Guardadao, Jose Juan Vazquez and Hector Herrerra have been superb on both ends of the field. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on 35-year old captain Rafa Marquez who has already contributed significantly, it was his header that brought the crucial opening goal in the deciding group stage vs. Croatia. Dutch coach Louis van Gaal has his team firing on all cylinders, Netherlands has clearly been the best squad so far in the tournament. Van Gaal utilizes a proactive 4-3-3 formation and a 3-5-2 formation, which have resulted in a 5-1 destruction of Spain, en route to full points in the grouop stage. It’s important to note here that the Mexicans will be without the services of Juan Vazquez to suspension, which is a major blow for the team. While the conditions should likely favor Mexico, the Dutch attack down the flanks will ultimately prove to be the deciding factor in my opinion as it will wear down the aging legs of the El Tri backline. Great value on the best team in the World; play on NETHERLANDS.

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This is a 10* “KNOCKOUT STAGE GAME OF THE YEAR” on Colombia.

A great spot, a great price on a great team. Uruguay won’t got down without a fight, but the Colombian’s are just too fast, too deep and too talented, and without their star player in the line-up, I’m actually expecting a wire-to-wire rout in this one. In my opinion, Colombia has been the most impressive team so far in the Tournament, it earned maximum points from the group stage and had to overcome adversity before the Tournament even started. Star player Radamel Falcao was lost before the tournament even began, which forced coach Jose Pekerman to switch to just a single-striker formation and moved in James Rodriguez from the left side. Rodriguez has been the most dynamic player in the World Cup, he’s scored in every game so far and has been key in setting up his teammates. The pace down the flanks has been incredible, and I simply can’t see Uruguary being able to handle the speed. The Colombian’s have been so impressive on the offensive end that it’s easy to overlook how well they’ve played defensively. They’re for real, the full package. Uruguay has lost the services of top player and scorer Luis Suarez who is banned from soccer for a while after biting an opponent in the team’s last match. While the team is still loaded with talent, it now lacks its most potent offensive weapon and I simply can’t see Uruguary mounting much of an offensive attack today. Colombia has the talent to advance deep, look for it to take full advantage today.

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This is a 10* “TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER” on the UNDER between USA and Germany.

There are many storylines to this game, but the bottom line is, I expect these two hungry sides to play to a tight, lower-scoring “chess-match” style of game and expect this total to sneak below the posted number at the end of the match. USA coach Jurgen Klinsmann will face his home country in this one. It’s definitely important to note that if these teams draw today, they both secure a spot in the Round of 16. With a win, the USA will win the Group, but one point also does the trick to move onto the knockout stage. The US had a shot at a 2-1 win over Portugal but would allow a goal in the final moments, earning one point instead of three. Germany looked great in its 4-0 win over England to start, but was rather lacklustre in earning a draw vs. Ghana in its second match. There are many implications for both teams, however there is one scenario which ensures that they both advance despite what any of the other teams in their group do, and that’s to play to a draw. With a single point each, both teams advance. This definitely plays to our advantage. Both teams will be trying for the win early, but if there is just 30 minutes left to play and it’s still scoreless, we can expect each side to take its foot off the gas the rest of the way. While both teams have played to some pretty high-scoring games so far, I think this one sets up as a lower-scoring battle; play on the UNDER.

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This is a 5* “SUPER-BLOWOUT” on Argentina.

What’s up with Argentina? This was a team expected to dominate its group stage, but so far it’s been an absolute grind for it. It would claw out a 2-1 win over Bosnia Herzogovina in its opening match, only to then need extra time to secure a 1-0 win over Iran! Lionel Messi though has been superb, he’s scored the winning goal in each contest and coach Alejandro Sabella will now switch to a 4-3-3 system to give Messi the support he needs down the middle. And that’s going to be bad news for Nigeria in my opinion. The Nigerian’s are a capable club, but they lack an offensive punch, drawing 0-0 with Iran in their opening match and managing a 1-0 win over Bosnia to keep their hopes alive. Nigeria can’t sit back today though, it’s going to have to press and this I think is going to be its downfall against a hungry Argentina side which will be able to open up the pace and get behind it on the counterattack. Really this line should be a lot higher. Play on ARGENTINA.

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This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on Columbia.

Japan has looked pretty inept in the World Cup, it lost 2-1 to the Ivory Coast, allowing The Elephants to score two goals in the final ten minutes of its opening match. It would then draw 0-0 with a 10-man Greece side. Suffice it to say, I am not expecting any offensvie fireworks today. Columbia can secure top spot in the group with just a single point, however I look for it to keep the foot on the gas and to bury the Japanese early. Many players have stepped up for the younger Columbian team like James Rodriguez who has scored a goal in each game so far; also keep your eyes on Juan Cuadrado, who has shown impressive skill to this point. Japan will need to press the issue from the start, which is going to leave it vulnerable to Columbia’s potent counterattack. Greece had some opportunities against the Japanese, we can expect this deep and talented Columbian team to take full advantage. I’m expecting a rout; play on COLUMBIA.

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This is a 10* “TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER” on the OVER between Netherlands and Chile.

While both teams are assured a trip to the round-of-16 after dominating their opening matches, there is still a lot on the line as they get ready to battle it out for top spot in the group. Neither side is going to be taking its foot off the gas, securing the top spot in Group B means avoiding the winners from Group A (Brazil). So far Netherlands has the advantage because of its 5-1 win over Spain. A draw and Netherlands wins the group, but Chile will need to win outright to secure it. Netherlands will be without the services of star Robin van Persie, but his replacement is just as competent, Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, who has 34 goals in 62 international appearances. Look for coach Louis van Gaal to stick to a 4-3-3 shape, which was so effective vs. Australia in the second half of Netherlands second match. Chile wasn’t able to put up five goals vs. Spain, but it’s 2-0 win was equally as impressive. Chile managed the game vs. Spain, showing a great deal of control which it had lacked over the last couple of years. This is a big game for both sides. Chile is going to be pressing throughout though, which will leave it vulnerable on its back end. This will be a back and forth battle and I don’t expect goals to be at a premium whatsoever between these two World class competitors; play on the OVER.

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This is an 8* “BLOCKBUSTER” on the “draw” between USA and Portugal.

Obviously a very important game for both teams. The USA would avenge back to back World Cup defeats by beating Ghana 2-1, scoring in the first 30 seconds of the match and then again in extra time to seal the deal. The Stars and Stripes suffered injuries to three key players, but if you’re a fan of the US team, don’t fret, defender Matt Besler is expected to return today. Captain Clint Dempsey suffered a broken nose after his early goal, but is also expected to be back in the lineup. However, forward Jozy Altidore will likely miss this game due to a strained left hamstring. The US abaondoned its attack first style vs. Ghana as the dimaond midfield flattened out to become a narrow line of four in front of the defense. Portugal is already against the ropes after an embarrasing 4-0 loss to Germany. To add insult to injury, star player Christiano Ronaldo has been seen wearing an icepack at practive this week. Also note that star player Pepe received a red card in the loss to the Germans, meaning he won’t be available for this game; other noteable absentees include left-back Fabio Coentrao and striker Huge Almeida due to injuries. The US should have an easier time in trying to shut down Ronaldo with these players sidelined. Portugal is a counterattacking team, but will need to force the issue today, a situation that it’s struggled with in the past. The US unfortunately is injured on the front end and won’t be able to properly take advantage of this situation, which means as the game wears on, look for the Stars and Stripes to sit back. Expect Portugal to fade under the punishing weather conditions as this contest ends in a DRAW.

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This is an 8* “TOTAL ART OF THE GAME” on the “under” between Iran and Argentina.

Argentina started its opening match slowly, but would make adjustments on the fly and secure the 2-1 victory over Bosnia-Herzegovina. Iran would play to a 0-0 draw in its opening match vs. Nigeria. With a win Argentina will punch its ticket to the Elimination Round. A draw would represent the Iranian’s greatest ever “victory” in the countries history. Let’s not kid ourselves, Argentina has the personnel to win the entire Tournament, Iran has to be happy with what it’s already accomplished. Iran won’t be playing for a win today, it will be playing for a draw, a classic war of attrition. Iran will once again have its men behind the ball throughout this game as it looks to slow down and frustrate the powerful Argentinian attack. I think Iran’s 4-5-1 formation will confound Argentina just enough to produce a lower-scoring game. Final precdiction: Argentina 2, Iran 0. Play on the “under”.

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This is an 8* “BEATDOWN” on Ecuador.

These are two pretty evenly matched sides, but I think Ecuador has a few key advantages and look for them to be the difference in the outcome of this contest. When these teams squared off in November, they’d draw 2-2. Both sides are also looking to bounce back from opening match losses, Honduras was destoryed 3-0 to France, while Ecuador would lose 2-1 to Switzerland in extra time. Ecuador though looked much better in defeat than Honduras as it held a one-goal advantage throughout the first half, only to conceded two goals in the final 34 minutes. Honduras comes into this game without the services of Palacio who received dual yellow cards in the loss to France, it will be tough for it to slow down a confident Ecuador attack. Great line value here; play on Ecuador.

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