10* Suns (BLOCKBUSTER)

Minnesota has surprisingly dominated this series. The Wolves were favored to win, but still no one expected the Suns to get swept. And we still don't think that'll be the case. They say that winning the fourth game of any series is the most difficult. Note that Phoenix is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Minnesota is on the cusp of wrapping up this series, but a letdown appears imminent in our eyes. Too much talent and heart still left here on this Phoenix team, much like the Lakers last night, who just delayed the inevitable now heading back to Denver. Either way, the play for us here in Game 4 is indeed on Phoenix!

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10* Knicks (ASSASSIN)

Philadelphia took Game 3, but we're expecting a battle until the final horn here in Game 4 after the 125-114 setback on Thursday. note that the Knicks are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Both teams have had to deal with injuries and are still dealing with injuries. Home court has so far proven to be an advantage in this series, but we say that trend gets bucked today. In what we suspect will be an all out war, we're grabbing the points!

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10* Pelicans (ASSASSIN)

We feel that home floor advantage will prove to be just that for the 0-2 Pelicans finally here on Saturday afternoon. An 0-3 hole would be too big to climb out of obviously, so this is the biggest game of the year for New Orleans. OKC was 24-17 on the road this year, while New Orleans was 22-20 at home. Regardless, it's significant to note that the Pelicans are in fact 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. Yes, Zion Williamson is out for this series, but CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram are going to respond in our opinion. There's no way the Pels are getting swept, as really the Thunder have been anything but impressive to us over these first two games. We just expected more. The Pels shoot over 37 percent from range at home, and we expect that to come into play here as well; grab as many points as you can here in Game 3, the play is on New Orleans!

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10* Jays runline (ASSASSIN)

After getting blown out in yesterday's series opener by a score of 12-2, we're expecting Toronto to be much more competitive here on Saturday. It was the Jays' fourth straight loss. It was LA's fifth straight win. Tyler Glasnow is 4-1 with a 2.92 ERA for the Dodgers, while Yusei Kikuchi is 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA for the Jays. We expect Kikuchi to match his counterpart inning for inning, and in a scenario like that it's the undervalued home dog that does indeed become the savvy wager in our estimation; while the outright is clearly possible, our official call is Toronton the runline option!

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10* Suns (BLOCKBUSTER)

We think that a little "home cooking" will turn the tide in this series, as we're expecting the Suns to not only win this essentially must-win Game 3, but to do so by a sizeable margin. Phoenix has in fact responded well in this spot for bettors by going 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. The Suns were a lot better at home this year as well, finishing with a 24-16 record. Minnesota has looked solid so far, but we're cautious here with its first game in the playoffs away from friendly confines. A 3-0 hole will be just too big for Phoenix to climb out of; with the home side risking life and limb, the play is indeed on the Suns!

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10* Jays runline (ASSASSIN)

We feel that Toronto is really undervalued here. That brings extra value to the runline option overall in our opinion. The Dodgers are 16-11 overall, while Toronto is 13-12. LA has won four straight now after winning three in a row in the Nation's capital this week. Now though travelling North of the border, we're expecting a small step back. Toronto enters on the other end of the spectrum, as it's now lost three straight after falling 2-1 in five innings at KC last night. The Jays have the clear starting pitching matchup in their favor though, with Gavin Stone (1-1, 6.00 ERA) going for the Dodgers, and Chris Bassitt (2-3, 3.90) countering for the home side. For all the reasons listed above, the play is Toronto on the runline option!

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10* Manchester United -1.5 (GOW)

We're expecting the home side to lay the hammer down from start to finish, making the spread option the correct call as far as the side is concerned in our opinion. Sheffield United is at the bottom of the table and is coming off a disheartening 4-1 defeat by Burnely last weekend. Manchester United on the other hand is in seventh spot in the table and still needing victories here to close the game. If recent history is any precedence though, then Man U has to be liking its chances here, as it's won eight of the last ten in this series. We say that streak continues here with another convincing blowout victory; lay the goals for Man U to win in a blowout in regulation!

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10* Pelicans (ASSASSIN)

Whether Zion plays or not, we like the Pels to give the Thunder a run for their money. New Orleans has experience in its core, while the Thunder come in with plenty of talent and a great regular seaosn record. New Orleans went 1-2 against the Thunder thi syear. OKC closed with five straight wins to close out, but will "rest" lead to "rust?!" In our opinion, "yes!" Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum look unbelievable right now and they won't be going down without a fight. We're not calling for an outright upset or anything, but everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe in our opinion; grab the points, the play is indeed on New Orleans!

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10* Rangers runline (ASSASSIN)

After two straight losses to open this series, we like the Rangers to, at the very least, take the finale "right down to the wire," meaning that the "runline option" becomes the savvy call in our opinion. Michael Lorenzen is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after shutting out the Tigers over five innings in his last outing. He's off a career-high 153 innings last year. The Braves counter with Darius Vines, who is 0-0 with a 1.93 ERA after allowing one run over four innings in a win over Houston. He's filling in for Spencer Strider for at least one more start, and regression feels/seems imminent to us now moving forward. Look for the revenge-minded visiting side to fight tooth and nail; the play is Texas on the runline option!

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10* Pacers (ASSASSIN)

The Bucks stumbled down the stretch and we believe that regression continues here in the first round of the playoffs, despite finishing third in the East and with home floor advantage over No. 6 Indiana. Giannis Antetokounmpo is injured, hence the Pacers being favored here. Milwaukee lost eight of 11 to close the year, while Tyrese Haliburton and the Pacers won six of eight to stay out of the Play-In Tournament. Indiana won four of the five regular season games and we see this dominance continuing; the play is indeed on Indiana!

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10* Bruins PUCKLINE (ASSASSIN)

We think that home ice will prove to be an advantage for each team in this series. We think the Bruins will not only win this game, but do so by at least two goals. We think the Bruins will be able to do that without having to rely on an empty-netter. The Leafs always show great potential throughout the regular season, but then fold like a house of cards in the playoffs. The Bruins put together one of the best regular season performances of all time last year, but then completely fell apart and lost in the first round last season. They'll be out to make sure that doesn't happen this season. Look for Boston to post a big win here in Game 1 at it sets the early tone vs. the Leafs!

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10* Magic (EAST-CONF FIRST RND GOY)

The Cavs did go on that massive run in the middle of the season, but they looked very pedestrian down the stretch. Orlando was 29-12 at home, but it also features the No. 3 defense in the NBA. Cavs' star Donovan Mitchell missed time down the stretch and Cleveland coach JB Bickerstaff's team just looked out of sync over the last month. The Magic went 16-10 down the stretch, while the Cavs went 12-16. Look for Orlando to, at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments and grab as many points as you can!

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10* Pels (ASSASSIN)

Despite Zion sitting, with nearly 75% of the public money on the Kings, we're going full on contrarian here and taking the still dangerous home side, which we expect will find a way to deliver the goods and move on further into the Playoffs. The Kings got by their nemesis the Warriors and are now primed for a classic "letdown" in our opinion. New Orleans fought tooth and nail and fell 110-106 to the the Lakers. We think LA would have smashed Sacramento if they had to play the first game. Despite that though, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum are going to step up and fill the void here left by Zion's injury. The Pels were 7-5 in games without Zion this year and New Orleans has dominated this series all year long, going 5-0 SU in the regular season. HOME COURT ADVANTAGE DOES MATTER HERE! Grab the points, the play is NEW ORLEANS.

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10* Blue Jays runline (AL EAST GOM) *Note, we also like Toronto on the moneyline.

We have an important early season divisional American League East getaway game North of the border between the Yanks and the Jays and despite the slow start for Kevin Gausman so far this season, we think the veteran will finally settle down here and we actually think that the value in this game is on the Blue Jays. Divisional games are always the most important, and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Toronto has taken the first two games of this series and now we look for the Jays to comoplete the sweep. Kevin Gausman hasn't suddenly forgot how to pitch and his first two starts are just outliers in our opinion (Gausman is 0-2 with an 11.57 ERA and 1.93 WHIP.) But Gausman has been one of the league's top 5 pitchers the last two years. He did lose to the Yanks in his opening start, and then in his last start he got roughed up by the Rockies. But the public saw that and has seen him struggle to start overall, but we're in the camp that believe's that there's a big overreaction now and the value has swung the other way (remember, Gausman had a 3.08 ERA at home last year. We're not taking anything away from Marcus Stroman on the Yanks (he's facing his former team in the Jays here again) as he's 1-1 with a 2.12 ERA. The bottom line here though is that we just think the public is too quick to back the Yankees still after their quick start and we're also not going to OVERREACT to Gausman's shaky start; the play is Toronto!

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10* Lakers (PLAY-IN GOY)

The Lakers won't be looking to leave anything for chance for here to avoid a possible matchup with the Nuggets, instead we're expecting the experienced visiting side to rally late and play tougher defense and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Anthony Davis had a huge year, and he'll be risking life and limb here to get the better of his old team. The Lakers beat New Orleans 124-108 in the final game of the regular season here and LA also won the In-Season Tournament over the Pacers. While we think the future is bright for the Pels, all signs point to LA coming out on top on Tuesday!

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10* Guardians runline Game 1 (ASSASSIN)

Overall we're getting great value on the home side on the runline option here. Public perception about the Yanks has driven this line out of whack in our opinion. New York is 10-3, while Cleveland is 9-3. Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 4.66 ERA) gets the call for the Yankees and he's allowed five runs off 13 hits over nine innings this year. He'll be opposed by Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 4.50), who has conceded four runs over eight innings. We like Carrasco here at home, as we feel Scmidt will struggle in this difficult road venue. While we clearly feel an outright victory is possible, in the end we're laying this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs in our back pocket; the play is Cleveland on the runline option!

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10* Wolverhampton (SPREAD) EPL GOW.

We're coming down the home stretch here of the season and this is one that favors the visitors in our opinion. That said, at this price, the savvy wager is to grab Wolverhampton on the spread option (0.5 if you can get it, but also +0.25 as well is acceptable.) Wolverhampton is 12-13 and on a three-game winless streak, most recently falling 2-1 to West Ham. These teams played to a 1-1 draw in the reverse-fixture back in December and we could very well see a repeat here. Nottingham Forest is just 7-17. After upsetting Fulham 3-1, it immediately fell 3-1 at Tottenham last week. Home field has been anything but an advantage for Nottingham Forest this year, so play the Wolves on the spread option this weekend!

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10* Thunder (BLOOD-BATH)

Two teams pushing towards the playoffs with just a handful of games to go, but the overall situation favors the home side in our opinion. Both teams played just last night. Sacramento snapped a two-game slide with a 107-77 win at Brooklyn, but with a night off before three straight at home to close out the year, can anyone say "letdown" spot here? The Thunder snapped a three-game slide with a 121-118 win at Charlotte, but it's now dropped five straight ATS. Note though that OKC is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after five or more ATS losses in a row. This is the start of four straight at home to close out the year and we're expecting the Thunder to set the tone early here and to keep the foot on the gas until the final horn; lay the points, the play is OKC!

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10* Purdue (GOM)

The Boilermakers beat No. 11 NC State 63-60 and we're thinking that they'll give the Tourney defending champs a run for their money here. UConn pulled away for the 86-72 win over Alabama. Zach Edey is a beast, so far averaging 28 points and 15.4 boards through the five tournament games. Overall the Boilermakers average 82.9 PPG, while the Big East champs averaged 81.6. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is Purdue!

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10* Cavaliers (ASSASSIN)

We had a play on Cleveland yesterday. Did the Cavs get caught looking ahead to this one in their 116-97 loss here to the Lakers, or did they just run into a red-hot team? We now think a little of both. Note though that the Cavs have in fact responded well in this spot for bettors though by going 7-2 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS road loss in which they were held to 99 or fewer points in. The Clippers are coming off back-to-back victories, but with two straight vs. Phoenix after this, we believe the home side gets caught "looking ahead." In a contest that we see being decided by whichever of these hungry and talented sides has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is Cleveland!

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10* D-Backs runline (NL GOM)

Brandon Pfaadt is 1-0 with a 1.80 ERA after his first start for the D-Backs, wihle Max Fried is 0-0 with a 40.50 ERA for the Braves. Fried couldn't get out of the first inning in his first start, but he's still considered to be one of the best pitchers in the World. That said, we're fully expecting Pfaadt to match his counterpart inning for inning, and in a contest like that, the value invariably swings to the undervauled underdog. In a contest that we see being decided late, or even in extras, we're grabbing the talented visting side on the runline option!

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10* Purdue (SIDE WINNER)

NC State has been the Cinderella team so far in the NIT, is not in all of College Basketball right now. That said, we think this Fairy Tale run is about to come to an end. Purdue, led by Zach Edey though will prove to be just too strong now we feel. Despite hitting just 3-of-15 3-pointers, the Boilermakers held on for the 72-66 win over the Vols, and we expect a much more efficient game this time around. NC State is led by big man DJ Burns, who has been phenomenal and who has put his name on the map, but Purdue's depth will finally be just too much for NC State to handle. Purdue ranks among the nation's best in several offensive categories and we expect the Boilermakers to keep foot on the gas from start to finish; lay the points, the play is Purdue! 

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10* Cavaliers (REVENGE ASSASSIN)

A great overall situational wager here, as after going 4-1 on their five-game Eastern swing, and now sitting in ninth spot in the West, we're expecting the Lakers to have a letdown here in their first game back, especially with the Wolves coming to town tomorrow. So not only is it a natural "letdown" spot, but it's also a "look ahead." Add those two factors together and you invariably get "trap game!" Cleveland will look to take advantage. It has a tough game here tomorrow night vs. the Clippers as well. The Cavs play with revenge after a 121-115 home loss to LA back in November, and note that Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points, the play is Cleveland!

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10* Kings (NON-CONF UNDERDOG OF MONTH)

These teams are fighting for playoff positioning, but the Kings play with the immediate "revenge factor" and we believe that'll be the difference in this one. The outright is possible obviously with a small spread like this, but our official call is to grab as many points as you can. Sacramento lost 98-91 at home to the Knicks in mid March and note that the Kings are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. New York is playing poorly right right now, off three straight losses and with four straight Eastern conference road games after this, starting in Chicago tomorrow night. This has "trap" written all over it for New York. A great "spot" bet here on revenge-minded Sacramento!

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10* Lakers (NON-CONF GAME OF MONTH)

The season is winding down, but that means that there are going to be plenty of great "situations" to take advantage of. And this is one of them. Both teams played yesterday. Both teams won. The Lakers beat Toronto 128-111 and easily covered the 13.5-point spread, while Washington snapped a three-game slide with a 117-113 outright victory over the Bucks as 12.5-point dogs last night. The Lakers are in ninth spot, 1.5 games behind the Suns for the eighth, and because of that we're expecting the visitors to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish; lay the price, the play is LA.

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10* Utah (CBB GAME OF THE WEEK)

In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. Utah has defeated UC Irvine, Iowa, and VCU, while Indiana State got by SMU, Minnesota and Cincinnati. The Utes have a 7-foott 220-pound center in Branden Carlson and we feel he'll be the difference-maker in this one. Overall the Utes rank 49th in offensive efficiency and 36th in defensive efficiency. Indiana State ranks 16th in offensive efficiency, and 109th in defensive efficiency. At this point of the tournament, and considering that it's now finally shifted to a completely neutral venue at MSG, the old saying that "defense wins championships," could not be more apt in our opinion. Indiana State is now more popular with the public than its ever been, and the bookmakers know that. We're going the other way and grabbing the points, despite believing that Utah will in fact win this one OUTRIGHT!

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10* Pelicans (REVENGE ATS BLOOD-BATH)

We're coming down the home stretch here. We like the Pels to avenge a 123-109 home loss to Phoenix as 2.5-point favorites back in January, as note that they're 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. The Suns are off the 128-103 loss at OKC and after this they return home for three straight. We say this not only sets up as a letdown spot for the visitors, but also a "look ahead." Look for New Orleans to step up and take advantage!

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10* Spurs (UNDERDOG OF WEEK)

We just feel this is a great spot for the Spurs to keep their recent momentum rolling here and to, at the very least, keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with all the points that they've been afforded in this one. Golden State is off three straight road victories, but with a night off followed by a home game vs. the Mavericks, would anyone fault the Warriors for "looking past" the Spurs here?! San Antonio though has won three straight as well and is arguably playing its best basketball of the season. It plays with revenge as well. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is indeed on San Antonio!

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10* Illinois (ELITE 8 GOY)

These teams are really evenly matched. Illinois avetrages 84.2 PPG, while allowing 73.2, while UConn averages 81.6, while conceding 63.6. The Illini have been up to every challenge so far and know how to body up against big men. Terrance Shannon Jr. has scored agains the toughest defenses, scoring 30 points against KenPom's No. 1 Iowa State. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is Illinois!

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10* Phillies RUNLINE (NL GOM)

The Phillies looked decent over the first half of yesterday's contest, but then fell apart once the bullpen took over. With Aaron Nola on the hill today though, we like Philadelphia to, at the very least, keep this one tight/close enough to cover with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Braves won yesterday's series opener 9-3, but we like the home side to respond here on Saturday. Fried was 8-1 witha  2.55 ERA last year, but he's 4-4 with a 3.62 ERA in 19 career games vs. Philadelphia. Nola was 12-9 wth a 4.46 ERA last year and he's 15-10 with a 3.40 ERA in 33 career starts vs. Atlanta. Nola just signed a new massive contract in the off-season and we're expecting him to deliver the goods here; lay the reasonable mid-sized price, the play is Philly on the runline option!

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10* Jazz (ASSASSIN)

While we're stopping short in calling for the outright upset, we love how this one sets up for Utah, as we're defintely expecting an all-out battle until the final horn. Houston has been red hot of late, but a letdown is inevitable. We say it happens here. The Rockets have won ten in a row. They're coming off a 132-126 OT win at OKC as 4.5-point dogs. After this "cream puff" matchup vs. the lowly Jazz, they then face Dallas, Minneosta, Golden State and Miami. Can anyone say "letdown" spot + "look-ahead" spot which = TRAP GAME! Utah plays with revenge as well after a humbling 147-119 loss to the Rockets just last week. Give us the revenge-minded home side to keep this one close enough to comfortably earn the ATS cover; grab the points, the play is indeed on Utah!

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10* Illinois (SWEET 16 SIDE OF YEAR)

It's the champs from the Big Ten and the Big 12 going head to head here and in this evenly matched contest, we're going to recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Illinois is back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2005. On the year the Illini average 84.6 PPG, while conceding 73.4. Iowa State is back in the Sweet 16 for the second time in three years. It averages 75.5 PPG, while allowing 61.2. Iowa State faces its stiffest test yet, and in our opinion, the Illini's efficient scoring will in the end prove to be too much for Iowa State to handle in this one; grab the points, the play is Illinois!

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10* Pelicans (ASSASSIN)

We think this is a great spot for the Pels to exact a little revenge vs. the Bucks. We're coming down the home stretch and teams are still jockeying for position. Milwuakee had its two-game win streak snapped in a 128-124 OT loss at home to the Lakers, and we think they'll have difficulty regrouping on the road here vs. this Western Conference opponent. Milwaukee returns home to face the Hawks after this, so we think the visitors get caught looking ahead. The Pels do indeed play with revenge after falling 141-117 at Milwaukee in January and note that New Orleans is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent; the play is New Orleans!

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10* Lakers (ASSASSIN)

I like betting against teams that are playing the second game of a back-to-back when the situation makes sense, but this isn't one of those times. It's crunch time in the NBA right now and the Lakers are surging towards the finish line, as their big stars continue to light up the score board of late. LA is off a big 128-124 OT win at the Bucks last night. Previous to that they won 150-145 at home over the Pacers. AD had a big night last night, but expect The King to carry the load this evening. LA plays with revenge as well after an inexplicable 127-113 loss to the Grizz at home as four-point favs back in January, and note that the Lakers are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent; lay the points, the play is LA!

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10* Norfolk State (U OF THE U)

This is the CIT Championship game and we like Norfolk State to figure out a way to come out on top. Purdue Fort Wayne averages 80.5 PPG this year, while allowing 71.5. The Mastadons though are ranked 408th in the country in rebounding. Norfolk State averages 74.5 PPG, but concedes just 67.6. They rebound a bit better at 315th in the country. They say "defense wins championships," and that saying could not be more apt in our opinion here in this Championship setting. While we clearly feel the outright win is possible, grab as many points as you can; the play is indeed on Norfolk State!

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10* Ohio State (NIT QUARTERFINAL GOY)

We say that home field advantage will prove to be the difference-maker for Ohio State in hit matchup. The Buckeyes ae 13-3 at home all-time in the NIT. Ohio State is off the 81-73 victory over Virginia Tech. Georgia went to Wake Forest and hit 14 three-points in the upset 72-66 victory. Can anyone say "letdown spot" here? The Buckeyes guard the perimeter extremely well, especially at home. Look for the home side to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the points with confidence!

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10* Spurs (DOG OF WEEK)

This is a great "spot" bet on the Spurs. San Antonio will get a better chance at a better draft pick the more games it loses at this point, but there are still going to be some "spots" that it makes sense to wager on them, and this is one of those situations in our opinion. The Spurs just lost here 131-106 to the Suns, and note that SA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to 109 or fewer points in. The Suns have won three in a row, but with a game at Denver up next, not only does this set up as a natural "letdown" spot for the visitors, but also a "look ahead," and add those two factors together and you invariably get "trap game!" This is a trap for the road favorite. No outright, but closer than expected; grab the points, the play is San Antonio!

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10* Purdue Fort Wayne (CIT GOY)

Tarleton State is the favorite here, but note that it lost two of its last three games of the regular season. Purdue Fort Wayne won its CIT opener 77-75 on the road over Bowling Green, a 12-point half-time lead proving crucial in the end. The Mastodons average 80.8 PPG, while conceding 71.5. Jalen Jackson averages 16.2 PPG. Tarleton State cruised to an 86-59 win over Abiline Christian. The Mastodons are good on the road, 9-7 so far. Yes, Tarleton State is 13-3 at home, but we don't see the visitors going down without a fight, as this one is very evenly matched. Outright upset again for Purdue Fort Wayne?! Anything is possible, but our official call will be to grab as many points as you can with Purdue Fort Wayne!

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10* Colorado (ASSASSIN)

"Momentum" is a very real thing in sports, and the Buffs enter with a ton of it after winning the first two games of the tournament to reach the round of 32. Marquette got the better of Boise State 87-69, but the Broncos were one of the other teams that had to play in the FIRST FOUR and which were clearly much more tired. Fatigue is an issue for both sides now equally in our estimation. Colorado has the edge in the middle anchored by 6-11 265-pound senior center Eddie Lampkin Jr. We feel an outright win is possible, but in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with Colorado!

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10* Creighton (DESTRUCTION)

Oregon got by SOuth Carolina, but we're expecting it to have its hands full here with Greg McDermott's Blue Jays. Creighton made the Elite Eight last year and its experiece at this time of year will prove invaluable. The Blue Jays are 8-2 ATS overall in their last ten and their "lights out" three-point shooting will be too much for the Ducks and Dana Altman to keep up to in the Round of 32; lay the points, the play is indeed on Creighton!

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10* Texas (2ND RND SIDE OF YEAR)

Texas may not win this game, but it won't be going down without a fight and because of that, we're indeed expecting an all out battle until the final horn and we'll be grabbing the points. Texas went on to demolish Colorado State in its opening round by a score of 56-44 as a 2.5-point favorite. The Vols went to to demolish Saint Peter's, but we just don't see Rick Barnes team being able to cover this larger spread. The Vols are perennial underachiever, and all signs point to that continuing; grab the points, the play is Texas!

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10* Cincinnati (ASSASSIN)

We feel that Bradley will be overmatched here finally on the road here in this difficult road venue. The Braves are off the 74-62 win over Loyola Chicago to advanced, while the Bearcats held on for the 73-72 OT win over San Francisco. Off that "near disaster," expect the home side to come out razor sharp right from the "get go" this time around. Overall Bradley averages 74.6 PPG, while the Bearcats average 74.6. The NIT is unique in that the early rounds are played at the home teams home arena, and now at this point in the tournament, we say that really does matter. Look for Cincinnati's defense to step up here and to also help in delivering the goods for us ATS; lay the points, the play is Cincinnati!

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10* Pelicans (SIDE $HOCKER)

Here's a great spot for New Orleans to bounce back in in our opinion. The Pels are 22-14 on the road still despite last night's 121-106 loss at Orlando. New Orleans was never really in it. Perhaps it got caught looking ahead to this one?! Previous to that the Pelicans had won three straight. They play with the added incentive of revenge here though after falling 106-95 at home to the Heat, a result that's significant to note as New Orleans is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in. Miami is 17-15 at home, and it returns to South Beach after a 3-1 road trip, ending with 107-104 upset win at Cleveland. With the Cavaliers coming to town on Sunday, not only does this set up as a potential "letdown" spot for the home side, but also a potential "look-ahead" position as well. Add those two factors together and you have a potential "trap" game here for Miami. While we clearly feel an outright victory is in the realm of possibility, our official call will be to grab as many points as you can with New Orleans!

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10* Colgate (BLOCKBUSTER)

Outright victory?! We're not calling for that, but we do expect the 25-9 Colgate Red Raiders to give the 23-10 Baylor Bears everything they can handle. The Red Raiders won the Patriot League, while Baylor came in third in the Big 12. Colgate makes its fourth straight NCAA appearance. The Red Raiders are tenth overall in scoring defense this year as well. The Bears are 28th in the country in scoring. So it's strength vs. strength. The problem is, Baylor doesn't play defense, ranked 134th in the nation. No outright here, but closer than expected: grab the points, the play is Colgate!

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10* Iowa State (NCAA FIRST RND. GOY)

We have the No. 15 seed South Dakota State (22-12), facing off against the No. 2 seed Iowa State (27-7), and in our opinion, this large spread isn't NEARLY large enough! South Dakota State was the best team in the Summit League all year and it beat Denver in the Conference Championship game, while Iowa State finished second in the Big 12 regular season, but then shocked everyone with the outright win over Houston in the Big 12 Championship. The Jackrabbits are making their third consecutive NCAA trip, but this is still going to be a super difficult matchup problem for them in our estimation. Overall South Dakota State averages 75.5 PPG, while allowing 71.6, while the Cyclones average 75.6 PPG, while conceding just 61.3 (second in the nation in steals!) The Cyclones have plenty of offensive depth as well with four players averaging double-figures in scoring. Look for the Cyclones to pull away for not only the win, but the comfortable ATS cover as well!

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10* Michigan State (BLOCKBUSTER)

This should be a tight, lower-scoring game for most of the game, but then we're expecting Michigan State to pull away for the comfortable win and cover. The Spartans are ranked ninth in adjusted defensive efficiency, conceding just 93.7 points per 100 possessions. Mississippi State is ranked 18th. These teams both lost in their conference tournaments, but covered in their respective setbacks. The Bulldogs though are going to struggle to score here with their 62nd ranked offense in terms of effiency (113.6 points per 100 possessions.) The Spartans have the edge in several different categories (defense, guard play and coaching just to start!), and when you add it all up, I smell an ATS rout; lay the short points, the play is Michigan State!

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10* Boise State (BLOCKBUSTER)

Colorado's eight-game win streak came to an end in its 75-68 loss to Oregon in the Pac 12 Tournament Title game, and we think it'll have a hard time finding that wining momentum here in this "tricky" matchup with Boise State. Boise State lost in its opening game of its conference tournament, but the Broncos had several big wins that pushed their resume over the top, including a non-conference win over Saint Mary's, while also going 2-1 over their last three vs. teams that are now in the NCAA Tournament. The Mountain West was incredibly competitive this year, as evidenced by the six teams in the NCAA Tournament. The Buffs struggled away from friendly confines this year, and all signs point to that continuing here vs. this tough Broncos side; grab the points, the play is Boise State!

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10* Cincinnati (NIT OPENING RND GOY)

The Dons have lost three straight on the road, and we think they'll struggle here in this difficult away venue as well on Wednesday night. The Dons average 77.9 PPG, while conceding 66.3, while Cincinnati averages 74.6, while allowing 67.9. San Francisco was 6-5 on the road, but the Bearcats were 14-5 at home. The Dons lost 89-77 to Gonzaga in the conference tournament, while the Bearcats lost 68-56 to Baylor. Regardless, the home floor advantage can't be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one in our opinion; lay the points, the play is Cincinnati!

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10* Heat (EAST-CONF NON-DIV GOY)

In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points. That said, we do like Miami to win this one outright and to avenge an earlier 111-99 home loss to the Cavaliers back in early December (note that Miami is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in as well.) Off a 98-91 loss at Philadelphia, look for the Heat to regroup here in Cleveland. The Cavs have been trading wins/losses over their last four games and off a 108-103 road win at Indiana, we're expecting this pattern to continue. These teams will play in Miami this weekend again, but we're expecting the revenge-minded Heat to be the ones to send the early message; grab the points, the play is indeed on Miami!

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10* Colorado State (FIRST FOUR GOY)

The Rams and Cavaliers both lost in their conference tournaments, but they enter the First Four as the No. 10 seeds, with a date vs. No. 7 Texas for the winner. Virginia has a fantastic defense, which is ranked seventh in overall adjusted defensive efficiency. But note that the Cavaliers have conceded 60 or more points in four out of their last five games. And Colorado State featured a top-50 offensive unit this year that has scored 60 or more in nine straight and in 32 of 34 overall this season. We think Colorado State matches up well here and will find a way to win and cover once it's all said and done!

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10* Gophers (ATS BLOOD-BATH)

Minnesota averages 75.4 PPG, while allowing 71.8. Dawson Garcia is a matchup issue for most teams, as he averages 17.7 points per game. The Bulldogs have a great record against non-conference teams at Hinkle Fieldhouse, but the Gophers have won their last five NIT Tournament games. Butler averages 73.3 PPG, while allowing 73.7. The Bulldogs defense hasn't been up to par of late and the Gophers' superior offense gives them a legit shot at winning this one outright; that said, let's grab the points!

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10* Northwestern (ASSASSIN)

The Badgers are 20-12 after routing Maryland to advance to face the 21-10 Northwestern Wildcats, who are the fourth seed in the Tournament and who received a bye to this point. The Wildcats snapped a two-game slide at the end of the regular season to destroy Minnesota and we're expecting them to carry that momentum over here. The Wildcats also play with revenge after a 71-63 road loss at Wisconsin and note that Northwestern is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. While the outright is clearly possible, the official call will be to grab the points; the play is Northwestern!

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10* Michigan State (BLOWOUT WINNER)

Let's GO Michigan State! These two teams faced off March 3rd and Purdue won 80-74. We can expect another competitive nail-biter here after the Spartans commanding 77-67 win over Minnesota. We say the quick turnaround here is just what the doctor ordered for Michigan State today. Zach Edey will get his points, but look for the revenge-minded and surging underdog side to, at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with all the points they've been afforded here; the play is indeed on Michigan State!

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10* Saint Peter's (MAAC CONF. TOURNEY GOY)

It's the opener of the MAAC Tourney and this is one that favors Saint Peter's in our opinion. The Peacocks finished 16-13, while Rider was 15-16. The Peacocks though lost both regular season games to the Broncs, both SU and ATS, and note that Saint Peter's is 7-3 (that's 70%!) ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge two or more SU/ATS losses in a row vs. an opponent. It's difficult to beat a team three times in a year, and we don't foresee that happening here; the play is indeed on Saint Peter's!

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10* Suns (NON-CONF GOM)

Phoenix is 37-27, including 17-13 on the road, while Boston is 51-14, including 29-3 at home. The Suns have been playing better of late as they've won three of their last four. They'll have had three whole nights off after beating Cleveland on the road 117-111 last time out. Phoenix has lost three straight ATS though, but that's significant for us to note, as the Suns are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row. Phoenix also plays with revenge after falling 117-107 at home to Boston just last week. The Celtics have won three straight SU/ATS, but on this first game back home after their successful Western swing, everything finally points to a bit of a letdown here in this non-conference matchup in our opinion; no outright, but closer than expected so grab the points, teh play is indeed on Phoenix!

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10* Ole Miss (SEC TOURNEY GOY)

No need to overthink this one. We base our picks on many different things, and this particular one is based upon the revenge factor. Ole Miss finished 20-11, while Texas A&M was 18-13. While these two teams did finish 1-1 against each other in the regular season, it was A&M that beat Ole Miss 86-60 on the road as a 1-point dog on the final regular season game of the year, and note that the Rebels are in fact 8-2 (that's 80% of the time they've cashed in this spot!), in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. And that's it, immediate revenge factor is the difference in this neutral site location for Ole Miss!

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10* Michigan (BIG TEN TOURNEY SIDE OF YEAR)

Michigan was terrible this year, but the Wolverines can, for at least one game, put a lot of this season's misery behind them with a victory here against the less-than-impressive 15-16 Nittany Lions. The Wolverines play with revenge as well after falling 79-73 at The Palestra in Philadelphia on January 7th (note that the Wolverines are in fact still 8-4 ATS as well in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss as a favorite vs. an opponent.) Michigan was aggressive out of the gate vs. Penn State early, taking a 12-2 lead less than five minutes into the game, and The Wolverines led by as many as 14 points at 36-22 with 3:15 left in the first half, before then completely falling apart in the second. But, we ultimatley feel that these two poor teams are very evenly matched, especially in this neutral site affair. We're stopping short in calling for the outright upset, but all signs point to a battle until the final moments; grab as many points as you can, the play is indeed on the Wolverines!

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10* Oklahoma (BIG 12 TOURNEY SIDE OF YEAR)

These two teams are similar in a lot of ways. Oklahoma finished 20-11. TCU finished 20-11. Both also closed out their seasons with losses. Both teams also spent time in the Associated Press Top 25 at different times during the season, but each was left off the final regular-season poll which was released on Monday. The Sooners though do play with the revenge factor after falling 80-71 at TCU as 5.5-point underdogs back in January, and note that Oklahoma is 7-3 against the spread in its last ten in trying to avenge a straight up and against the spread conference road loss vs. an opponent. And now here we are at a neutral location in Kansas City Missouri in the second round of the Big 12 Confernece Tournament, and while we clearly believe an outright victory is possible, our official call will be to grab the points. To say this is a revenge game is a bit of an understatement as the Horned Frogs have won four of hte last five between the teams. The winner of this one gets the glorious prize of facing the No. 1 seed Houston Thursday in the quarterfinals, but taking a little closer look at these teams sees he Sooners average 75.5 PPG, while allowing 68.5, while the Horned Frogs average 80.4 PPG, while conceding 71.6. But for us, the revenge factor will prove to be the difference-maker in this game on Wednesday; grab the points, the play is Oklahoma!

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10* Kings (REVENGE ASSASSIN)

It's the end of a long road trip for the Bucks, who broke a two-game slide with a 124-117 road win ver the Clippers last time out. With a night off before a home game vs. the Bucks, not only is this a letdown spot, but also a look-ahead. The Kings play with revenge after a 143-142 OT loss at Milwaukee in January, and note that Sacramento is 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU road loss vs. an opponent. Clearly we feel the outright is possible, but in the end we'll recommend to grab as many points as you can with Sacramento!

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10* Vermont (AMERICA EAST CONF. TOURNEY GOY)

We like Vermont (26-6 overall and 15-1 in the America East), to send a message here and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish vs. New Hampshire (16-14, 7-9.) The Catamounts are big favorites here, but not nearly big enough in our estimation. Vermont averages 101.1 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 87.8 points per 100 possessions. Both are in the Top 50 in the country. The Wildcats' margin of error is small, averaging 74.6 PPG, and allowing 74.2. Vermont held on for the tight 75-72 win over Albany to advance, not even coming close to covering the 16.5-point spread, but this matchup and spread is much more manageable; so much so, that Vermont does indeed become our America East Conference Tournament GAME OF THE YEAR!

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10* Northern Colorado (BIG SKY TOUNEY GOY)

Just a great situational play here. Idaho State is off the 68-60 win over Northern Arizona last night, but now here on the second game of the B2B, we're expecting fatigue to be a major issue. Northern Colorado has been off since March rth after beating NAU 82-74. The Bears have scored over 80 points in three straight games and we can't see the dead tired Bengals being able to keep pace; lay the points, the play is Northern Colorado!

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10* Troy (SUN BELT CONF. TOURNEY GOY)

Texas State is 16-17, and Troy is 20-11. This is the quarterfinals of the Sun Belt Conference Tournament and we feel that the Trojans should for sure be larger favorites in this spot. Texas State beat Southern Miss 79-59 to advance, while Troy has received a bye into this spot. The Bobcats have won five straight, but note that Texas State is in fact just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after five or more SU victories in a row. The Trojans now get to avenge an 82-79 loss to Texas State in the final regular season game for both teams, and note that Troy is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss vs. an opponent. Lay the points, as everything points to a lop-sided victory for Troy this time around!

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10* Lakers (ASSASSIN)

Milwaukee is just 16-15 on the road, while the Lakers are 23-11 at home. The Bucks kicked off their road trip with an uninspiring 125-90 loss at Golden State, which snapped their win streak since the All Star game. With tougher games on the horizon as well here vs. the Clippers in two nights, this is for sure a letdown + look-ahead spot. Add those two factors together and you get "trap game!" LA is off a 130-120 home loss to the Kings as three-point favs, but note that the Lakers are 3-1 ATS in their last four off a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite. Grab the points, the play is LA!

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10* Oral Roberts(SUMMIT LEAGUE CONF. TOURNEY GOY)

These are two bottom feeders in the Summit League. South Dakota is ninth, and Oral Roberts is 8th. Oral Roberts averages 73.6 PPG, while South Dakota averages 76.5. The bottom line here though is that the Golden Eagles play with revenge here after a tight 77-76 road loss to the Coyotes on February 24th. They won the other matchup, but note Oral Roberts is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU conference road loss vs. an opponent. Look for the Golden Eagles' superior defense to be the difference in this one and lay the short points with confidence! 

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10* Celtics (ASSASSIN)

Payback. Boston's big home win streak came to an end in mid January when the defending World Champs came to town and won 102-100. The Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Both teams are coming off losses, but Denver's 117-107 OT home loss to the Suns will still be fresh on the front of their minds. The Celtics fell 105-104 at Cleveland, but had won 11 straight previous to that. Look for the "revenge factor" to be the difference-maker tonight; the play is indeed on Boston!

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10* Lakers (ASSASSIN)

This one comes down to REVENGE Lenny. These team are pretty evenly matched on any given night, but the Lakers are at home an dthey're playing with revenge. We think those two factors added together will result in a solid win and cover for the Lake Show on Wednesday night. Sacramento is 34-26 overall, including 18-15 on the road, while LA is 35-29 overall, including 23-10 at home. The Kings come into this one off an awkward 113-109 home loss to Chicago, and with a MUCH EASIER game at home tomorrow night vs. the Spurs, we think the visitors will get caught "LOOKING AHEAD" here (especially with a couple days off after that followed by four more home games.) But for the Lakers, they've now won three of their last four and they didn't look past Oklahoma City last time out, winning 116-104. And they do play with revenge after the 125-110 loss here at home to the Kings at the start of the season, and note that LA is in fact 7-3 against the spread in its last ten in trying to avenge a straight up and against the spread home loss against an opponent. After this the Lakers have two tough games vs. the Bucks and Wolves, before a rematch on the road in Sacarmento, so this game here vs. the Kings on Wednesday night does indeed take on added importance for the home side. Look for LA to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish and lay the short points with confidence!

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10* Radford (BIG SOUTH TOURNEY GOY)

The Radford Highlanders are 15-16, while the USC UpState Spartans are 10-19. These team are playing in Nido at the Mariana Qubein Arena. Overall the Highlanders average 72.5 PPG, while allowing 71.7. The Spartans are averaging 71.4 PPG, while conceding 73.1. These teams played twice. Radford won 64-61 at home as an 8-point favorite in the first one, and then lost 78-69 at SCUS on February 3rd as a 1.5-point favorite. Note that Radford is 7-3 ATS in its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Radford wasn't able to cover in either game vs. South Carolina Upstate this year, but in this neutral site affair, a "third times the charm" could not be a more apt phrase to describe this situation for us; the play is indeed on Radford!

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10* East Carolina (AAC GOY)

While we're not calling for an outright victory here or anything, we do definitely expect a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. This one sets up well for the visitors. ECU is 14-15 overall, including 3-6 on the road, while SMU is 19-9 overall, including 13-3 at home. The Pirates don't come in with a lot of momentum. They've lost three straight, both SU and ATS in a row. They were dogs in each game. But that for sure is significant for us to take note of here, as the Pirates are a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in their last five (80% of the time!) after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. ECU also plays with revenge after the 75-64 home loss as a four-point dog, and note that the Pirates are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. SMU has also lost three straight, both SU and ATS. It's not playing well at all right now, losing 77-73 at home to UTSA as a 17-point favorite last time out. With a game at UAB to end the season, we also believe it'll get caught looking ahead. Grab the points, the play is indeed on East Carolina!

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10* Suns (WESTERN-CONFERENCE NON-DIVISION GOM)

We base our picks on many different things, and this particular one is a great "situational" release. Phoenix will be desperate to snap a two-game slide following a humbling 118-110 loss to OKC as a 4.5-point favorite. That was the Suns third straight ATS loss. Note though that Phoenix is 7-3 ATS in its last ten off an upset loss as a home favorite, and it's also 4-1 ATS in its last five after three or more ATS losses in a row. Additionally the Suns play with the added incentive of "revenge" here after a 119-111 home loss to the Nuggets back in early December, and note that they're 8-4 ATS in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent. Denver has yet to lose since the All Star break, and it's covered in every game but one of those. But with Boston coming to town on Thursday night, not only does this set up as a potential letdown spot, but also a potential look-ahead spot. Look for Phoenix to take advantage!

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10* Loyola Maryland (PATRIOT LEAGUE TOURNEY SIDE OF YEAR).

Conference Tournament time. While we're not calling for the outright victory here for the Greyhounds, we do think that revenge-minded Loyola Maryland can keep it close enough to earn the comfortable cover. Loyola ended a four-game slide at the end of the season with a 69-68 upset win over Army as a one-point dog. It does indeed play with revenge as well after a 69-62 home loss to Navy as a 1.5-point favorite back on February 21st, and note that the Greyhouds are in fact 4-1 ATS in their last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. a conference opponent. Navy closed the season on a roll, off four straight SU/ATS victories in a row, inclding a 71-65 over American as a seven-point dog in its regular season finale. That result is significant to note here though as the Midshipmen are just 1-3 ATS in their last four off an upset conference road win as an underdog. In what we anticipate will be a battle to the final moments, we're grabbing the points with Loyola Maryland!

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10* NC State (ACC GOY)

Outright win?! We're not counting anything out here, but our official call will be to grab as many points as you can with the home side. Duke is 23-6 overall, including 6-4 on the road, while NC State is 17-12 overall, including 12-4 at home. NC State has lost back-to-back games at FSU and UNC as a dog, but it's been trading ATS victories and losses over its last five games and after the solid 79-70 road loss but cover at UNC, we like the home side to now keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe as well. Duke has won two in a row, both SU and ATS, but with a game at home vs. UNC this coming weekend, not only do we feel this is a natural "letdown" spot, but also a "look-ahead." This is a trap-game for the visitors, and we're looking for the home side to step up and make the most of it; grab the points, the play is NC State!

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10* Evansville (MISSOURI VALLEY GOM)

While we're stopping short in calling for an outright upset, everything points to a much tighter battle here in our opinion than what this spread is suggesting. Evansville is only 4-10 SU away from friendly confines, but 8-6 ATS. The Purple Aces have lost five straight SU/ATS, but that's significant to note as Evansville is in fact 7-3 ATS in its last ten after five or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Belmont is 11-2 SU at home, but a more modest 7-5 ATS. I believe the home side will be pushed to the brink here. In their final regular season game, look for the visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; grab the points, the play is Evansville!

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10* Utah (DOG OF MONTH)

We simply feel this is a great "spot" wager on Utah. Outright win?! Probably not. But we love betting on these types of situations. Yes, Miami is hot, but this is a natural "letdown" spot. The Heat went 5-6 on their road trip. They dropped the final game in Denver, but still covered the spread. They've covered in nine straight now. I think the home side is now overvalued though. Teams that return home after a long and successful road trip, often have a letdown in the first game back in front of the home town crowd. The Jazz will look to take advantage. They beat the Heat 117-109 at home back in late December, but off B2B losses to open this road trip, we're looking for the hungry visitors to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch; grab the points, the play is indeed on the Jazz!

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10* Clippers (NON-CONF GOW)

Just a good old situational play here. No need to overthink this one. The Wizards are off a 134-131 OT loss here to the Lakers just last night, and clearly fatigue will be a major issue. With a couple nights off after this, we say the visitors just "go through the motions" in this one. As we said, a great "situational" play. The Clippers won't be lacking motivation either after B2B losses here at home. Lay the points, the play is LA!

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10* Nuggets (WEST-CONF NON-DIV GOM)

Gentlemen, on one side of the court we have the Sacramento Kings, who are 33-24 overall, but who are off a 121-110 loss at home to Miami just last night.

And on the other end of the court we have the defending champs, who have won three straight and who have had two whole days off to prepare for this one.

We're giving this one the good ol "eye test" here on Wednesday night, and rolling with the revenge-minded home side. 

The Nuggets have come out of the all-star break and playing at a really high level. 

Three straight wins, three straight covers. Tomorrow they have Miami coming to town, so it's not really a "look ahead" spot whatsoever. 

Revenging their 102-98 loss to the Kings here at home in the middle of the month is the much more important thing to take care off. 

That result though is important for two different reasons, as Denver is 7-3 against the spread in its last ten in trying to avenge a straight-up and against-the-spread home loss vs. an opponent, and it's also 3-1 against-the-spread in its last four in trying to avenge a home loss an opponent in which it was held to 99 or fewer points in.

Damantas Sabonis looked good with a triple-double for the Kings last night, but difficult to see him repeat that performance here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, facing the Joker in the thin air of Denver. Jokic had a triple-double in the Nuggets latest victory, finishing with 32 points, 16 boards and 16 assists.

The Kings defense looked really bad last night against a Miami Heat squad that averages only 110.6 points per game, which ranks 27th in the league currently.

Guys, another great "situational" play here that's backed by several strong trends, so lay the points with confidence, the play is indeed on the Nuggets!

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10* Missouri State (MISSOURI VALLEY GOY)

We base our picks on many different things. This one here is just a great situational play, that's also backed by some strong supporting ATS trends that can't be ignored. Missouri State is 15-14, but only 4-9 on the road, while Illinois State is 14-15 overall, including 9-6 at home. The Bears will be highly motivated here to stop a two game SU slide. Missouri State has now lost four straight ATS, but note despite a 93-78 setback at Belmont as a 7.5-point dog, the Bears are still 8-4 ATS in their last 12 after three or more ATS losses in a row. The biggest reason though behind this play is 'revenge.' The Bears lost 69-60 as seven-point favorites at home to Illinois State back in January, and note that Missouri State is a near-perfect 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Redbirds three-game win streak came to an end last time out in a 48-45 loss at Bradley, and off that "near hit" as a 12.5-point dog, all signs point to a letdown here finally in our opinion. While the outright is possible, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can with Missouri State!

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10* Blazers (NON-CONFERENCE GOM)

On one side we have the Miami Heat, who are 32-25 overall, including 17-12 on the road, and who are arguably playing their best basketball of the season, off four straight road wins, all as an underdog, including just last night with a 121-110 win over the Kings in Sacramento just last night.

On the other end of the court we have the Portland Trailblazers, who are just 15-41 overall. They've struggled at home and on the road, but after eight straight SU losses and seven straight ATS setbacks, we feel this is a great spot for Portland to, at the very least, sneak away with a comfortable cover finally.

We're primarily situational handicappers, and this one falls right into our wheelhouse. 

These teams haven't played since 2022 and the Blazers beat the Heat on the road in that game. 

But after the four straight road victories, including the impressive one just last night, and with a game at the defending champs up next, going to Denver to end this six-game road swing, we say that not only is this a natural "letdown" spot, but also clearly a "look-ahead" spot. Would anyone fault the Heat for looking ahead to that one after this stretch of great play.

Clearly Miami will be resting players in anticipation of that one. 

When you add those two factors together, letdown + look-ahead, you get "TRAP GAME." 

Doesn't set up any better as being a "TRAP" game here in our opinion as situational cappers.

We're also contrarians, and with 60% of the early public money on the visitors, that also appeals to our contrarian side.

The Blazers are just 9-19 at home. They're off the 93-80 loss at home to lowly Charlotte as 3.5-point favorites. Pretty much the lowest of the low right now for Portland. 

But Portland has in fact responded well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 against the spread in its last five after a SU and ATS home loss as a favorite in which its been held to 85 or fewer points in.

We base our picks on many different things. Some times it involves injuries. Other times we base our picks on really strong trends. Other times its based on situations.

This particular pick is a fantastic "SITUATIONAL" play and while we'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to a much tighter battle than what the oddsmakers are suggesting here, so the official call will be indeed to grab as many points as you can with the Blazers!

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10* Kings (PACIFIC DIV. GOM)

With nearly 70% of the early public money on the home side favorite, we're for sure going full on contrarian with this one. Sacramento is 32-23 overall, including 16-14 on the road, while LA is 37-18 overall, including 20-6 at home. The Kings have won two straight. They couldn't cover the large 10-point spread at home to the Spurs, as they took the foot off the gas and got caught looking ahead to this one. The Kings now kick off four straight vs. incredibly tough competition, as they face Miami, Denver and Minnesota after this. They play with revenge as well after a 119-99 loss here in December, and note that the Kings are in fact 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS divisional road loss vs. an opponent. The Clippers haven't been at their best of late, as they've been alternating wins/losses over their last seven games. They're off a 101-95 victory at Memphis, but with a high-profile game vs. the Lakers up next, they could be caught "looking ahead" here as well. While the outright is possible, our official call is to grab as many points as you can here with Sacramento!

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10* Pistons (EAST-CONF GOW)

This one just sets up really for Detroit in a lot of ways. Outright win? Possibly, but in a contest that we do see being extremely competitive until the final horn sounds, are recommendation for this contest will be to grab as many points as you can. Orlando is 31-25, but just 13-17 on the road. Detroit is 8-47 overall, and only 4-23 SU at home. But the Pistons are 13-14 ATS. Regardless, after B2B victories, including a 116-109 win at Cleveland as a 5.5-point dog last time out, we're expecting Orlando to have a letdown here, while also getting caught "looking ahead" to its much more high-profile game at Atlanta tomorrow night. The Pistons play with the added incentive of "revenge" as well after falling 111-99 to Orlando earlier. The Pistons have lost four straight SU, and three straight ATS, but note that Detroit is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row. Grab the points, the play is indeed on Detroit!

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10* Bucks (ASSASSIN)

The Bucks are 35-21, including 12-14 on the road, while Minnesota is 39-16, including 19-5 at home. The Bucks come into the second half ready to get back on track after a tumultuous first. Regardless, they play with revenge here after a 129-105 loss at home to Minnesota back in early February, and note that the Bucks are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Wolves went into the break on the heels of four straight wins, but we say the break came at the wrong time for the home side. Rest = rust in its case. But it's going to be beneficial for the beleaguered Bucks, who we feel have a legit shot at winning this one outright; that said, the official call is to grab as many points as you can with Milwaukee!

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10* Mount St. Mary's (MAAC GOM)

We love the way this one sets up for the home side. This spread should be a lot larger for the revenge-minded home side. The Mountaineers are 11-15, while Saint Peter's is 13-11. The Peacocks are off a 59-53 road win at Iona as seven-point dogs, but note that Saint Peter's is in fact just 3-7 ATS in its last ten off a SU/ATS conference road win as an underdog. the Mountaineers return home off two straight road losses, but they play with revenge after a 70-64 loss at Saint Peter's back in early January, and that's definitely significant for us to take note of here as well as the Mountaineers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent; lay the short points with confidence, the play is Mount St. Mary's!

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10* Nuggets (NON-CONF GOW)

With the second half now underway, we're expecting the rested defending champs to send a message to the rest of the league that they're still the "big dog" in town. Washington is just 9-45 overall, including 6-22 on the road. Amazingly the Wizards though are 18-8-2 ATS away from friendly confines, as they've consistently been undervalued over the first half. But we're not buying it here. Denver is 21-5 SU at home. The Nuggets went into the break on the heels of three straight SU/ATS losses, but note that Denver is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. Look for the home side to make an example out of the Wizards, who we expect will throw in the white towel early as they prepare for their game at Oklahoma City tomorrow night; lay the points, the play is DENVER.

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10* New Mexico State (CONF-USA GOM)

We base our picks on many different things. This particular one sets up well from a situational stand point. These teams are fairly evenly matched, but New MExico State has a clear "home court" advantage here, while also playing with the "revenge factor." Those two big factors working in favor of the home side will prove to be the difference in our opinion. Sam Houston State is 15-11, but only 4-9 on the road, while New Mexico State is just 11-15 overall, but 11-1 at home. The Aggeis play with revenge after a 79-67 SU/ATS road loss at Sam Houston State back in late January, and note that New Mexico State is 4-1 ATS in its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss as an underdog vs. an opponent; for all the reasons listed above, the play is indeed on New Mexico State!

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10* Penn State (BIG TEN GOW)

We base our picks on many different things and this particular one just sets up really well for the hungry home side in our opinion. Illinois is 19-6 overall, while Penn State is just 12-14. But the Illini have looked really pedestrian on the road as they're just 4-4 straight up away from friendly confines. The Nittany Lions on the other hand Lenny are 9-4 in front of the home town crowd. Illinois is poor on the road, and Penn State is quite good at home. Also note that this is a big game for the Nittany Lions aside from needing to stop a three-game slide, most recently a 68-49 setback at Nebraska, as the men's basketball team will return to Rec hall in University Park Pennsylvania for the first time since December 2015. So they're out of the Bryce Jordan Center and back in the 6,502-seat bandbox and we believe it will for sure provide an extra boost for the home side here in this one. One of the reasons why the Nittany Lions are getting so many points here at home is that Coach Mike Rhoades announced on Monday that leading scorer Kanye Clary is off the team due to a coach's decision, but note that the Nittany Lions have responded well in this spot for bettors, as they're 8-2 against the spread in their last ten after a SU/ATS conference loss in which they were held to 50 or fewer points in. So here's the perfect opponent to get untracked against as this Illinois defense has conceded 83, 73, 96, 75, 88 and 80 points in six Big ten Road games this year. While we do think an outrigtht win is possible, our official call will be to grab as many points as you can with Penn State!

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10* Villanova (ASSASSIN)

As primarily a situational cappers, this one falls right into our wheel house. The Wildcats have a lot working in their favor here, and there's actually more money on Butler in fact, or there was in the early going, so that also appeals to our contrarian side. But these teams are moving in opposite directions now over the last three weeks, and the Wildcats also play with revenge here after an 88-81 OT loss at Butler as 1.5-point dogs in late January. These teams have very similar overall win/loss records, but when you look a little closer at their numbers, we find that the Wildcats also enjoy more advantages in this position. Butler is 16-10 overall, while Villanova is just 14-11. The Bulldogs though are only 3-5 straight up and 4-4 against the spread on the road. The Wildcats are 8-4 straight up at home and 7-5 against the spread, so Villanova does enjoy the home court advantage here as well. So that's two really strong factors there, the revenge factor, coupled with the documented home court advantage here where Butler has definitely struggled on the road. And then you have to look at "current form;" Butler's lost two straight, both against good teams mind you and they were both dogs in each, falling 78-72 to Marquette and 79-57 to Creighton, but Villanova has won two straight, beating Seton Hall here 80-54 before then downing the Hoyas 70-54 in Georgetown. The Wildcats looked good last time out on both ends of the floor, they were led by 14 points from TJ Bamba, but it was the defense that stole the show, going on to hold its fourth straight opponent to less than 60 points. Conversely, in their most recent loss the Bulldogs missed 14 of their final 15 shots from 3-point range. Clearly they're a well coached team under Thad Matta, but now they're going to face another red hot defense that's capable of stopping the three-point ball as well (and which plays with revenge and the home court advantage!) We expect Villanova to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish!

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10* TEXAS SOUTHERN (SWAC GOY)

Here is a great "situational" play. Clearly, with a spread like this the oddsmakers think these teams are evenly matched, and for the most part they really are, but there are significant situational factors working in favor of the home side that swings the pendulum to its side. Southern is 16-9, but only 6-9 on the road. Texas Southern is only 9-14 overall, but 4-3 at home. Off B2B losses and three straight ATS losses, the Tigers will be risking life and limb to get back into the win column tonight, and note that Texas Southern is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after three or more ATS losses in a row. The Tigers also play with revenge after a 58-51 loss at Southern in January. The Jaguars have won seven straight SU, but now everything finally points to a letdown here in this difficult road venue in our opinion; lay the short points, the play is on Texas Southern!

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10* Utah (PAC 12 GOY)

Just a great situational play here, and while we do think the outright win is a very real possibilty, the official call will be to grab as many points as you can. Utah is 15-9, including only 1-6 on the road, while UCLA is 14-11 overall, including 8-4 at home. Off three straight SU/ATS losses in a row though, we're expecting the visiting side to risk life and limb here. Utah annihilated UCLA 90-44 at home back in January, as this is just a bad matchup for the home side. And with nearly 70% of the early public money on the home side, we're definitely going full on "contrarian" for this matchup. Note as well that the Utes are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after three or more SU/ATS losses in a row. UCLA is off six straight SU wins and five straight ATS victories, but note that the Bruins are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after five or more ATS victories in a row. In a contest that we see being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, we're grabbing the points; the play is Utah!

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10* FIU (CONF-USA GOY)

With nearly 70% of the early public money on Lousiana Tech, we're going the other way on this one and going full-on contrarian. That's note the only reason we think that FIU can keep this one within striking distance until the final buzzer. FIU is 8-17 overall, including just 1-9 on the road, while Louisiana Tech is 17-8 overall, including 12-1 at home. The Panthers play with revenge after a humbling 93-53 home loss to Louisiana Tech at the start of the months, and note that FIU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent. The Bulldogs just snapped a two-game slide with a tough 63-58 win over Jacksonville State as 11-point favorites, and we're predicting them having a very difficult time again here today in covering such a large spread. For all the reasons listed above, the play is FIU!

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10* Georgetown (BIG EAST GOM)

This one sets up great from a situational stand point for the home side in our opinion. Villanova is 13-11 overall, but just 2-6 on the road. Georgetown is only 8-16 overall, but it's a slightly better 7-8 in front of the home town crowd. The Hoyas have lost nine straight. In each game they've been a sizeable dog. That's the case again here, but now we feel this spread is TOO large. Villanova has been trading wins and losses over its last four games and off a big 80-54 home win over Seton Hall as a six-point favorite, we think the Wildcats will once again have their hands full away from friendly confines. Yes, Villanova is the better team here, but this is a bad spot for it facing this now desperate Hoyas side. And with a home game vs. Butler up next, not only is this a potential letdown spot for the visitors, but also a "look ahead." As stated off the top, a great situational play here on the Hoyas with the points!

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10* Portland (WEST COAST GOY)

Here's a great situational play, and while we'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to the visitors taking this one "right down to the wire." Portland is 9-17, including 2-9 on the road, while San Diego is 15-11, including 10-5 at home. The Torreros have won three straight. They've covered in six straight. The general betting public is clearly very quick to back the home side here, but we'll go full on contrarian and go the other way. And with Santa Clara coming to town next, not only is this a potential letdown spot, but perhaps also a "look ahead" position as well. And when you add those two factors together you get "trap game!" Portland plays with revenge as well after an 85-81 home loss to San Diego on January 23rd. In what we anticpate will be a similar competitive battle, we're grabbing the points; the play is Portland!

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10* Spurs (REVENGE ASSASSIN)

We think the Spurs will hang around late and make this one interesting. San Antonio just snapped a lengthy slide with a 122-99 win at Toronto and we think it'll keep that confidence and momentum rolling here. They play with revenge after a 144-119 loss here on December 23rd, and note that the Spurs are 7-3 ATS in their last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Dallas has won five straight, but with the All-Star break right after this, we say the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half and gets caught "looking ahead," grab the points, the play is San Antonio!

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10* Presbyterian (BIG SOUTH GOY)

We base our picks on many different things. Many different methodologies are employed daily. This particular one is an unreal "situational" play in our opinion. Presbyterian is 12-14, including just 4-7 on the road, while UNC Asheville is 17-9, including 10-1 at home. The Blue Hose though have quietly been playing their best basketball of the season, and we expect that momentum to get carried over here another game, having won three of their last four and covered in four straight! They play with revenge as well after falling 84-80 at home to UNC Asheville back on January 6th, and note that the Hose are 7-2 ATS in their last nine in trying to avenge a conference home loss vs. an opponent. No outright, but much closer than expected; grab the points, the play is indeed on Presbyterian!

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