10* UNDER Panthers/Bruins (TOTAL BLOOD-BATH)

The first three games have flown "over" the number in this series, but we're now definitely anticipating much more of a defensive affair here in Game 4. Note that Boston has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. And note that Florida has seen the total fly "under" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. With each side putting an added emphasis onto the defensive end like we suspect, everything does indeed point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

AAA Sports

10* Real Salt Lake/LA Galaxy OVER (MLS TOW)

Both teams have been involved in some lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting more of an offensive affair here for a couple of different reasons. Real Salt Lake is 6-2 and off a 1-0 win at home over KC. Previous to that it was a 2-1 win at Philadelphia. Look for the visitors once again push the pace here and to find the back of the net at least twice on the road this time around as well. LA is 5-2 after a 0-0 draw with Seattle and previous to that it was a 2-0 loss to Austin. After being shut out in back-to-back contests, everything points to the Galaxy opening things up big time on the offensive end this weekend. With each side pushing the pace from start to finish like we anticipate, everything does indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Stars/Avs (2ND RND WEST-CONF TOY)

While the first two games of this series flew well "over" the number, we're now finally expecting much more of a defensive battle here with the shift in venue. Colorado has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten as well after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Previous to this series the Stars had played to three straight "unders" vs. Vegas and now we also believe that fatigue will play a major role in the final combined outcome of this contest. With each side doubling down defensively in this crucial Game 3 like we suspect, all signs do indeed point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER A's/Mariners (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in seeral higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a "duel" here finally between these AL clubs in what will be a perfect night weather wise in the PNW. Joey Estes has been recalled from Triple A to make this start. He posted a poor 6.04 ERA in the minors, but he's been brought up out of necessity. The bottom line here is though that we aren't going to lay the steep chalk with Bryce Miller and the Mariners, but we just don't see the A's posting much offense here. Miller is 3-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He gave up four runs over six innings in a no-decision vs. the Astros last time out, but he still enters with a sharp 42:13 K:BB. Seattle almost assuredly wins this one, but we still don't see a lot of runs being plated; this number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Celtics/Cavaliers (2ND RND EAST-CONF TOY)

Game 1 went "over" the number in the Celtics 120-95 victory, while the total went "under" in the Cavaliers 118-94 upset victory in Game 2. Now with the shift in venue over to Cleveland, we're expecting the Celtics to respond here and to be aggressors from start to finish. Note that Boston has in fact seen the total go "over" the number as well in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as favorite vs. an opponent in which it was held to 95 or fewer points. With each team pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this one flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

AAA Sports

10* Burnley/Tottenham UNDER (EPL TOW)

As primarily situational cappers, these are exactly the types of games that we're constantly keeping our eyes on the look out for. Tottenham is 18-11, but after four straight losses, we're expecting the home side to risk life and limb to secure a victory here, and that means risking life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes as it looks to smother Burnely from the "get go." Burnley has nothing to play for except possibly trying to play spoiler at 5-22. Burnely has only managed a single goal in each of its last two games, and we have a hard time seeing the visitors even getting one in this one; when you add it all up, this O/U line is indeed high, so the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Mavs/Thunder (WEST-CONF 2ND RND TOY)

If Dallas is going to pull off an upset in Game 2, it'll have to get back to what it did well in Round 1, and that's play tough, suffocating defense from start to finish. And that's exactly what we're expecting. Dallas lost the opener at LA as well in the first round 109-97, but then it bounced back to win the next two by score of 96-93 and 101-90. With Dallas putting an added emphasis on the defensive end this evening at all points during this contest like we anticiapte, all signs do indeed point to likely a much more competitive battle, but once again a lower-scoring "under" once the final horn blares!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Bruins/Panthers (ASSASSIN)

We think it's highly likely that most pundits were pretty surprised that Boston destroyed the Panthers 5-1 in Game 1 of this second round series. And that's becuase the Bruins had just gone seven with the Leafs and needed overtime in the seventh game to earn their spot here. But it was in fact Florida that showed the rust after taking out Tampa Bay in five games and not having played since April 29th. That's always the big question for a team that advances really quickly in their series in four or five games: will the extra time off between series betwen beneficial, or will it be detrimental? Clearly, for the Panthers, "rest" did lead to "rust" in Game 1. But making adjustments from one game to the next is key to success in the playoffs (both for these teams, but also for us handicappers.) But here for this one, we're going to caution in over-reacting to the Game 1 results. That said, we're not going to lay this larger price, but we do think we're going to see a completely different dynamic overall to the pace of this one. Previous to the 5-1 win over Florida in Game 1, the Bruins had seen the total go UNDER in four straight to close out their series with the Leafs and in our opinion we're definitely going to see a much tighter overall Game 2; as a result, the "under" is definitely the correct call here as far as the total is concerned!

AAA Sports

10* Austin/Vancouver OVER (MLS WEST-CONF TOM)

This is Austin's first trip to BC since July 2023 and suffice it to say, we're expecting goals to be plentiful. Austin so far has 15 points after a 2-0 win over the LA Galaxy last time out. Note though that Austin has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 off a shutout victory. Vancouver comes in off a 1-1 draw at Red Bull Arena in its most recent action. And if recent history is any precedence, then all signs definitely point to a higher-scoring shootout, as over the last six games against each other they've produced 20 goals (an average of 3.33 GPG.) Look for this pattern to continue as this total flies "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Canucks/Predators (WEST-CONF TOM)

This has been a back-and-forth series, as the Canucks move forward with their second and third-string goaltenders, and the Predators holding on for dear life after the 2-1 Game 5 victory in Vancouver. These two teams will be fighting tooth and nail here Nashville on Friday night, but in our opinion, everything points to a higher-scoring shootout, rather than a lower-scoring goaltenders battle. Note that Vancouver has also seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Game 4 here was a 4-3 OT win for Vancouver, and we're predicting a similar final combined score here as well in Game 6; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Giants/Phillies (ASSASSIN)

Neither team has been involved in many high-scoring games of late, but we're expecting that to change in the opener of this three-game series, despite two decent starters going head-to-head. San Fran goes with Jordan Hicks (2-0, 1.59 ERA), while the home side counters with Aaron Nola (4-1, 3.20.) San Fran has now seen the total go "under" in six straight after yesterday's 3-1 win at Boston, and note that the Giants have still seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Philadelphia is rolling and just took two of three at LA. The Phillies return home after three straight series on the road and we're expecting this talented hitting line-up to plate some runs. In fact, we're expecting each side to put up enough runs that at the end of this one, the total will indeed go way "over" this super low total; and that's the play, the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Bruins/Leafs (BLOCKBUSTER)

Boston won Game by a score of 5-1, and it's been the only game in this series that's so far eclipsed the posted number. But now here in Game 6 we're anticipating another wide-open shootout. Note that Boston has seen the total fly "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate in this crucial contest, all signs do indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later; and that's the play!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Tottenham/Chelsea (EPL TOM)

These two rivals renew that rivalry at Stamford Bridge on Thursday and while each has played to several higher-scoring games of late, we're anticipating a much more defensive affair here finally on Thursday. The Hotspurs are off B2B losses, first calling 4-0 at Newcastle, before then dropping a 3-2 decision at home to Arsenal last week. They lost to Chelsea 4-1 at home in the reverse-fixture back in November, but note that Tottenham has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Chelsea is 13-11. It fell 5-0 to Arsenal, before then drawing 2-2 at Aston Villa last week. Fatigue becomes an issue here in our opinion in this mid-week contest, turning this match into much more of a "war of attrition," than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Cubs/Mets (BLOOD-BATH)

The first two games of this series went "under" the number, but we're anticipating much more of a wide-open affair here finally in the finale. The Cubs have now seen the total go "under" in three straight after yesterday's 4-2 loss, but note that Chicago has in fact seen the total soar "over" the number in four of its last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. We're super impressed so far with both starters, but we definitely feel that regression is imminent. The Cubs go with Shota Imanaga (4-0, 0.98 ERA), while the home side counters with Jose Butto (0-1, 2.86.) The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends do indeed point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Braves/Mariners (BLOOD-BATH)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scorin games of late, but all signs finally point to a slug-fest in the finale of this three-game Il series in our opinion. Seattle has now seen the total go "under" in seven straight after yesterday's 2-1 win here over Atlanta. Note that the Braves have seen the total dip "under" the number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a road loss as a fav vs. an opponent. Reynaldo Lopez is an unrealistic 2-0 with a 0.72 ERA for the Braves and regression feels imminent for us. Luis Castillo is 2-4 with a 4.15 ERA for the Mariners, but the overall situation, combined with the above-listed trends, all do indeed point to this one being much more of a "slugfest" than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in our opinion; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Pacers/Bucks (EAST-CONF TOW)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games in this series, but we're finally expecting a defensive affair. The Bucks are on the ropes here now down 3-1 in this series, as they've struggled without Giannis in the line-up. Note though that Milwaukee has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. Also note that the Pacers have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Fatigue becomes a factor now here as well in our opinion. The overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends all point to a very defensive affair; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Isles/Canes (EAST-CONF TOW)

With their backs against the wall, the Isles delivered the 3-2 OT win in Game 4 to stave off elimination for at least one more game in this series. Now up 3-1, Carolina will look to rebound and end this at home here now in Game 5. Note that Carolina has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a road loss as a fav vs. an opponent. We think the Isles can match their offensive output from Game 4 as well, so in what we anticiapte will be a faster-paced affair here in Game 5, all signs do indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Stars/Knights (WEST-CONF TOW)

The money is pretty much split down the middle between these two teams here in Game 4 in Las Vegas. So far, home ice advantage has been anything but for these two teams. Las Vegas won the first two in Dallas, while the Stars then finally bounced back with the tight 3-2 win in OT in Game 3. Note though that Las Vegas has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. The first game went "over" the number in the Stars' 4-3 victory, and we're expecting a similar final combined score here in this important Game 4 as well; this number is low, the play is hte "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Braves/Mariners (IL TOW)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games as we head into the first contest of this Interleague series here in the PNW on Monday night, but we say those trends finally end this evening. Atlanta has seen the total go "under" in six straight now after taking two of three at home over Cleveland this weekend, while Seattle has also seen the total go "under" in six straight after taking two of three here at home over the Diamondbacks. Note that Seattle has also seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten off a home loss as a favorite (lost 3-2 in yesterday's series' finale with AZ.) Max Fried is 2-0 with a 4.97 ERA for the Braves, while Bryce Miller is 3-2 with a 2.22 ERA for the Mariners. Two decent starters, but the overall situation, combined with the above listed O/U trend points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Oilers/Kings (SUPER BLOWOUT)

All three games have so far flown "over" the number in this series, but we're expecting much more of a defensive affair this time around finally here in LA. Edmonton is up 2-1, but note that LA has in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. Fatigue now becomes a factor here for each side. The public is quick to back another high-scoring affair here, but that fact only lends weight for our contrarian nature as well when it comes to this selection. We say that Game 4 will finally be a lower-scoring defensive battle; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER D-Backs/Mariners.

The Mariners have now won five of their last six after taking the first two games of this series. They've also seen the total go "under" in five straight now, but that's significant to take note of as Seattle has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Brandon Pfaadt (1-1, 4.97 ERA) goes for Arizona, while Logan Gilbert (2-0, 1.87) counters for the home side. Gilbert looks poised for regression after this blistering start and after getting held to just a single run in each of the last two games, we're expecting this talented hitting Diamondbacks line-up to be there to take advantage. This number is a little low, so the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Nuggets/Lakers (BEST OF BEST)

The first three games of this series have fallen below the number, as the Lakers have fallen apart in the second half of each contest so far. At this point, even if LA does win Game 4, the Lakers would then just clearly be delaying the inevitable. That said, after the first three games all going "under," we're finally expecting this Game 4 to go "over!" Note that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. LA's bench has been shutdown, but with the home side fighting tooth and nail like we suspect to avoid the sweep, this faster-paced affair will indeed fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Oilers/Kings (TOTAL BLOOD-BATH)

The first two games of this series have flown well "over" the number, but we're anticipating a much tighter defensive affair here now that the venue has shifted to the West Coast. Edmonton won Game 1 by a score of 7-4, and hten LA bounced back with the 5-4 OT victory in Game 2. Note though that Edmonton has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent. We think fatigue will also now play a factor here as the series wears on. With each team doubling down defensively like we're suspecting in this one to try and get the upperhand in this series, everything does indeed point to a lower-scoring defensive battle; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Jets/Avs (TOTAL BOB)

The first two games of this series have flown "over" the number, but now with the shift in venue, we're anticipating a much more defensive affair here. Fatigue now at this part of the series takes effect. Altitude in Colorado is a factor. Also note that the Jets have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a two goals or greater home loss vs. an opponent. Game 3 in Colorado shapes up to be a defensive goaltenders battle in our opinion; this number is indeed high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Clippers/Mavericks (SUPER TOTAL)

The first two games of this series have gone "under" the number, but now with the shift in venue we're anticipating these talented offensive teams to finally eclipse what we feel is now a really low number. Note that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 as well in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to 95 or fewer points in. Dallas was 25-16 at home, while LA was 26-15 on the road. All signs once again point to a very competitive affair here in Game 3, but this time a high-scoring one; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Nuggets/Lakers (TOP PLAY)

The first two games of this series have gone "under" the number, but we're anticipating a much higher-scoring shootout this time around with the shift in venue. Note that LA has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to 99 or fewer point in. The Lakers closed out the regular season by seeing the total fly "over" the number in five straight games. Now returning home and with their backs against the wall, LA will have to push the pace from start to finish no matter the size of the lead; expect this overall tempo to help in contributing to this total flying "over the posted number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* Panthers/Lightning OVER (GAME 3 TOP)

The first two games have fallen "under" the number, but now with the shift in venue, we're expecting goals to be plentiful here in Tampa on Thursday night. Note that the Lightning have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge two or more straight losses against an opponent. We also expect Florida to be able to, at the very least, match its offensive output over the first two games after winning 3-2 in each. While the first two games of this series have been really defensive, the stage is now set for an explosive offensive affair between these talented offensive clubs in our opinion; this number is indeed low, the play is on the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Brewers/Pirates (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a "duel" here finally in this get-away game. Milwaukee is 14-8, including 10-4 on the road, while Pittsburgh is 13-11, including 5-5 at home. The Brewers have now seen the total go "under" in five straight after yesterday's 3-2 win. Note though that the Brewers have in fact seen the total soar "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. The Pirates have also seen the total go "under" in five straight, but note that they've also seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last 11 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Freddy Peralta is 2-0 with a 1.90 ERA for the Brewers, while Mitch Keller is 2-2 with a 4.80 ERA for the Pirates. Two decent starters, but the overall situation, combined with the numbers/trends point to this total going "over" the number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Pelicans/Thunder (ASSASSIN)

For the most part we're primarily a "situational" cappers and we think that handicapping style is a great one to use during the playoffs. To be successful in the playoffs, both for these teams and also for us handicappers, it's important to make adjustments from game-to-game. You can have a good idea about how a game or series is going to go, but then after the first game or the second game if they don't go as you originally thought, it's important to make adjustments on your direction and learn from those initial mistakes. Either way, this is another great "situational" play overall and it's not really about who is or who isn't on the court. We're going to steer clear of a side on this one and instead focus on the total and we just think Game 2 will be much more wide open than what we saw in Game 1. Including their two Play In games, the Pelicans have now seen the total to "under" in all three of their playoff games so far this year, but that's significant to note because New Orleans has in fact seen the totla go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Oklahoma City earned the 94-92 win, but it was anything but impressive. The Thunder looked great in the regular season to earn the No. 1 seed but now that the Playoffs are here this high-octane offense looked pretty medicore. That said, overall we think there's been a bit of an overreaction with this Over/Under line here in Game 2. We've seen a lot of really low-scoring games in both the NBA and NHL Playoffs so far this year, but everything finally points to a shootout here in our opinion in this Game 2; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Phillies/Reds.

We base our picks on many different things. We're giving this one the old "eye test" here, as we don't feel there's any need to overthink it. We're expecting a classic "duel" here between two starters that enter on top form, and because of that, we're going to recommend a play on the "under" here. The Phillies hand the ball to Spencer Turnbull (2-0, 1.23 ERA), while the home side counters with Nick Lodolo (2-0, 0.75.) Regression will happen at some point obviously, but everything points to a classic "duel" here in our opinion. Look for these two starters to "take center stage" and to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* Mavs/Clippers OVER (1ST RND WEST-CONF TOY)

Game 1 went under the number, but we're expecting Game 2 to be much more wide-open. The Mavericks only scored eight points in the second quarter of that first game, and the total still almost went "over" the number. The Mavs scored 34 points in the third quarter and 33 in the fourth and while Luka and Kyrie looked good, the rest of the team struggled. We don't see that happening again. We're expecting the Mavs to be much more efficient here across all four quarters. LA looked great and will look to keep the momentum rolling. With each team pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this total flying OVER the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Avs/Jets (RND 1 WEST-CONF TOY)

No need to overthink this one for us. The "zig zag" theory is in full effect here as far as the total is concerned in our opinion after the Jets won the opener 7-6. Note that Colorado has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Both regular season games these teams played against each other also went "over" the number, but after the high-scoring shootout in the first game, we're absolutely expecting a much more defensive affair this time around. The bookmakers know the public will be quick to back this being another high-scoring shootout, because that's what the general betting public wants. But we're going the other way and expecting a much more defensive battle this time around; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Isles/Canes (1ST RND EAST-CONF TOY)

While the first game stayed well "under" the number in this Eastern Conference Opening Round NHL series, we say that the second one will be much more wide-open offensively, and we'll therefore be recommending a play on the "over" in this one. Note that New York has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last ten in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to one or less goals in. New York has responded well in this spot for "over" bettors, and we're banking on this strong trend continuing here in this important game. This O/U line is now definitely TOO low, so the play is the "over" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Magic/Cavaliers (1ST RND EAST-CONF TOY)

Game 1 went well "under" the number, but we're expecting a much faster-pace here in Game 2 of this Opening Round Eastern Conference Final matchup, at least one that'll help push this total "over" this very low O/U number that's been set. Note that Orlando has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/aTS road loss vs. an opponent. Despite this series shift back to Orlando next, the Magic will have to change their game-plan from the get-go here in Game 2 to avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole. With each team pushing the pace like we suspect, everything does indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Lakers/Nuggets (BLOCKBUSTER)

The Nuggets won the NBA championship last year and they have a legitimate shot at duplicating that feat here this season as well. To get to the Finals last year, Denver steamrolled the Lakers in four straight. This season the teams meet in the first round. The Lakers got past New Orleans in the Play In Tournament, and we think they're going to be fatigued here now in the thin air of Denver. The Nuggets took all four of those Playoff games over the Lakers last year, but by a combined 24 points. The Lakers have had a few days off after the win in New Orleans, but they lost all three games to the Nuggets in the regular season. With the home side looking to clamp down and control the tempo and pace of this one, we're expecting a very defensive affair right out of the gates and considering all of the situational factors listed above here, everything does indeed point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Angels/Rays (ASSASSIN)

These two teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, including the first two of this series which they've split, but all signs finally point to a bit of a "duel" here in our opinion, as each side will be leaning on these capable starters to go deep. Neither has looked great to open the season, but with a couple of awkward games under their belts, we're looking for each to settle down here. The Angels turn to Griffin Canning, who is 0-2 with a 9.88 ERA, while the home side counters with Ryan Pepiot, who is 1-2, with a 5.40 ERA. Canning is 1-1 with a 4.19 ERA in four career games vs. the Rays, who has had one good start and two pedestrian ones. He's never faced the Angels. However, when taking into account the overall situational factors listed above, and also noting that Tampa has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Look for these two hungry starters to battle into the latter frames and then also look for this total to stay well "under" once it's all said and done!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Heat/76ers (PLAY-IN TOY)

Neither team thought they'd be in this position, but here we are. The winner will face the Knicks in the first round, while the loser will play the winner of the Hawks/Bulls. Philly is a different team with Joel Embiid in the line-up, as evidenced by the 76ers eight-game win streak to end the season. Miami got into the playoffs last year via the Play In Tournament. Plenty of experience on both sides. Plenty of familiarity between these teams. Embiid averaged 30.4 poitns, 9.2 boards, 5.2 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.2 blocks once he returned and Philly hasn't lost a game since he has. Not like Miami will be rolling over here though, as the Heat come in healthy as well, with Bam Adebayo ready to try his best to keep up with Embiid. If Philly plays to a slower pace, it plays into Miami's strengths. With that in mind, we're expecting the home side to push the pace from start to finish and in our opinion, everything does indeed point to the OVER as the correct call!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Angels/Rays (AL NON-DIV TOY)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're now finally anticipating a much lower-scoring "duel" here on Wednesday. LA goes with Reid Detmers, who is 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA and 0.81 WHIP, while the home side counters with Zach Littell, who is 1-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. These teams have split the first two games of this series, with each game going well "over" the posted total, but with these two red hot hurlers squaring off and throwing deep into the latter frames against each other like we envision, the correct call as far as the total is concerned is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Cubs/D-Backs.

These two teams have been involved in some lower-scoring games of late, but everything points to much more of a slug-fest here on Tuesday finally in our opinion. Chicago has seen the total go "under" in four straight after last night's 3-2 win here to open the series. Note that Arizona has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The D-Backs have now seen the total dip "under" in three straight, but note that Arizona has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Kyle Hendricks is 0-2 with a 12.08 ERA for Chicago, while Tommy Henry is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA for the D-Backs. Everything points to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Reds/Mariners (IL TOW)

We're expecting some offensive fireworks here between the Reds and Mariners on Monday night. Cincinnati goes with Frankie Montas, while Seattle counters with George Kirby. We like each starter and aren't reading too much into either's early results. That said, the overall situation points to a slug-fest in our opinion. Seattle has now seen the total go "under" in six straight after its second straight loss to the Cubs last night. Despite that though, note that the Mariners have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 still after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Will be a nice night in the PNW and we're finally expecting these talented hitting line-ups to take center stage; the play is indeed on the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Rangers/Astros (DUEL)

These teams have been involved in a few high-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to more of a "duel" here in our opinion on Sunday in the finale of this divisional three-game series from Houston. Texas is 8-6 and Houston is 4-11. The first two games of this series have gone "over" the number, but note that Houston has now seen the total eclipse the posted number in four straight. The Astros did finally break their four-game slide with yesterday's victory. Two starters that are sizzling hot to open the new season go head-to-head and we're expecting them to take center stage here for this one and duel deep into the latter frames. Nate Eovaldi is 1-0 with a 1.45 ERA for the Rangers, while Christian Javier is 1-0 with a 1.10 ERA for the Astros. Everything finally points to a "duel;" the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Pirates/Phillies (BLOWOUT)

We had a play on the "over" in the Phillies' 4-3 win and while that pick came up short, we're now finally expecting a "slug-fest" here on Sunday. Philly has now seen the total go "under" in nine straight. But that fact has only helped in driving today's O/U line a little bit lower than it normally would/should be in our opinion. Pittsburgh's now seen the total go "under" in four straight. Mitch Keller is an unremarkable 1-1 with a 5.29 ERA for the Pirates. Philly will look to take advantage here and plate some runs for starter Zach Wheeler, who is 0-2 with a 1.89 ERA so far. Regardless, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later in our opinion!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Pirates/Phillies.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting a much higher-scoring shootout here finally between the Pirates and the Phillies on Saturday afternoon. The Pirates have seen the total go "under" in the first two games of this series, including in their 5-2 win here yesterday (Philadelphia won the opener by a score of 5-1.) The Phillies have now seen the total go "under" in nine straight. All of these "unders" has helped in pushing this O/ line a bit lower than it normally would/should be though in our opinion. Marco Gonzales is 0-0 with a 2.45 ERA for the Pirates. Gonzales has allowed just three runs over 11 innings of work, but regression seems imminent finally here in our opinion for the veteran. The Phillies counter with Spencer Turnbull, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. He's coming off a no-decision vs. the Cards. In our opinion though, each starter is poised to "get the hook early" here, and that'll lead to these bullpens exploding and this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Pirates/Phillies.

Both teams, especially the Phillies, have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting some offensive fireworks here in the opener of this one. Pittsburgh is 9-3, while Philly is 6-6. The Pirates just had their three-game win streak snapped in the 5-3 home loss to Detroit two nights ago. They've been alternating overs with unders over their last eight games, and off the low-scoring loss just last night, we're absolutely expecting this pattern to continue. This is the start of four straight here in Philly. The PHililes have been alternating wins/losses over their last five games. Off a 4-3 win at ST. Louis yesterday, they'll be eager to break that pattern here at home in the opener of this one. Regardless, the Phillies have seen the total go "under" in seven straight now. But now we definitely feel the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned. This is an ACTION play, meaning whoever gets the start for either team, this play will be valid. Pittsburgh goes with Jared Jones (1-1, 3.86 ERA), while Philadelphia counters with Ranger Suarez (1-0, 4.09.) Can't fault either guy, as they've been decent so far, but the overall situation, combined with the trends definitely point to this one being a "slug-fest" finally in our opinion; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER A's/Rangers (AL WEST TOY)

We have two really good starters going head-to-head here and we believe they'll battle each other DEEP into the latter innings, alleviating the pressure off the bullpens. Ross Stripling is 0-2 with a 3.75 ERA for the Athletics. He's been great in his first two starts, last time out he gave up one run over seven innings, striking out three and walking none in an unfortunate loss to the Red Sox. The A's offense was shutout in that one for the second time in its previous three games. That offense will find it difficult again today facing Rangers' starter Cody Bradford, who is 2-0 with a 2.13 ERA and 0.47 WHIP. With each of these starters taking "center stage" like we suspect in this one, all signs do indeed point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Mavericks/Heat (NON-CONF TOM)

Both sides have been playing to several high-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one, combined with some strong numbers/trends, finally makes the "under" the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion. Dallas is off a 130-104 road win at Charlotte just last night, and now we're expecting fatigue to be a major factor here in the second game of the back-to-back. Miami has seen the total go "over" in seven straight after last night's 117-111 OT win at Atlanta, but note that the Heat have seen the total go "under" the number eight of their last 11 after three or more ATS victories in a row. With each team doubling down on the defensive end like we suspect after having played just last night, everything does indeed point to much more of a defensive affair here than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe in my opinion. This number is high, the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER White Sox/Guardians (AL CENTRAL TOY)

These two teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're finally anticipating a bit of a "slug-fest" here on Tuesday. Chicago has lost five straight, and the last four have all gone "under." That includes yesterday's 4-0 series opening loss here. Note though that despite this being a new season, it's still significant to note that the ChiSox have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten in trying to avenge a shutout divisional road loss vs. an opponent. Chicago is just 1-9, but Cleveland is 8-2. It's now seen the total go "under" in three straight, but note that the Guardians have seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. Both starters are decent, with Mike Soroka (0-1, 4.91 ERA) going for the visitors, and Logan Allen (2-0, 2.31) going for the home side, but despite who gets the start here, the overall situation, combined with the above listed trends, finally point to this total fying "over" the number once it's all said and done!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Nationals/Giants (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games to open the season, but despite a couple of decent starters going head-to-head to open this series, we're anticipating a bit of a slug-fest and for this total to ultimately eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The Nationals are just 3-6, while the Giants are only 4-6. The Nats are looking to snap a three-game losing streak. Trevor Williams is 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA for the Nationals, while Blake Snell is making his season debut here. He's looked good in Spring, but the overall situation points to this total sneaking "over" the number as the game comes down the stretch. San Francisco went 2-1 in its series vs. the Padres here over the weekend and all three games went "under" the number, but that's significant for us to take note of as the Giants have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. This number is indeed low in our opinion, so the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Knicks/Heat.

Expect an all out battle of defense here between these Eastern Conference rivals. New York is 44-30 overall, including 20-16 on the road, while Miami is 41-33, including 19-17 at home. The Knicks won't be lacking motivation here after B2B losses. They've now seen the total go "over" in three straight, but note that New York has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Miami plays with revenge here after falling 125-109 at New York back in January, and note that the Heat have seen the total dip below the number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss vs. an opponent. With each team doubling down defensively like we suspect throughout this one, everything does indeed point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned!

AAA Sports

10* NC State/Duke OVER (ELITE 8 TOY)

NC State beat in the Conference Tournament, but it'll be hard for the Wolfpack to beat this Blue Devils side twice in two weeks. So far the Blue Devils have seen all of their postseason games go "under" the number this year, including the 74-69 setback to NC State back on March 14th. Note though that the Blue Devils have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss vs an opponent. The Wolfpack is versatile and can play any style of contest. We're expecting this one to finally be a bit more wide-open; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Creighton/Tennessee (SWEET 16 TOY)

The Blue Jays opened the tournament with a 17-point win over Akron, but hten needed double OT to knock-off No. 11 seed Oregon in the second round. We're expecting Creighton to now come out with "heavy legs" here in the Sweet 16 and to double down defensively after the offensive marathon last time out. Tennessee cruised by St. Peter's by 34 in the opening round of the Tournament, but then it had to hold on for dear life in its four point win over 7-seed Texas in the second. With each of these teams still "reeling" from their Round of 32 wins, this is the type of great "situational" play that we're always on the look out for at this point of the tournament. Considering all of the situational factors pointing to each of these sides being exhausted here on Friday, we're definitely rolling with the "under" as far as the total is concerned in this one!

AAA Sports

10* Jays/Rays UNDER (AL EAST TOM)

For a number of different reasons we're expecting this one to fall "under" the posted number once it's all said and done. Toronto and Tampa went "over" the number in yesterday's Season Opener, but we're anticipating a much tighter "duel" here on Friday night. Chris Bassitt looked great in his final Spring tune-up for Toronto, striking out nine over 5.1 innings and giving up just one run vs. the Padres. Overall he posted a 14:1 K:BB over 14 Spring innings and there's no reason not to think he won't keep that momentum rolling here. Aaron Civale was 3-2 with a 2.59 ERA over the first half last year and we're anticipating another hot start this year. So look for these two starters to take center stage and for this total to fall "under" the number once it's all said and done!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Celtics/Hawks.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting more of a defensive battle here on Monday night. The Celtics enter the final stretch of the regular season on top form, having won nine in a row. This is the opener of two straight here though, and we think Boston will control the pace of this one, and not allow the Hawks to play at an "up tempo." Boston has seen the total go "over" in three straight, but that's signficiant to note as the C's have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Atlanta is just 31-39, but it broke a two-game slide last time out with a convincing 132-91 win over Charlotte here. The Hawks have also seen the total soar "over" in three straight, but note that ATL has seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Look for the opening game of this mini two-game series to be a defensive one; the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Texas A&M/Houston (2ND RND. NCAA TOY)

Both teams dominated in their opening round games behind tough defensive play, and we're expecting those trends to continue here. These two teams squared off on December 16h and Houston won 70-66. While we expect another competitive game here as well, we absolutely expect an even lower-scoring defensive "chess match" in this one. Texas A&M averages 75.5 PPG, while allowing 71.2, while Houston averages 73.4 PPG, while allowing a nation-low 56.7. The first game in December went "over" the number, but this one has defensive battle written all over; this number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Jets/Capitals (ASSASSIN)

Both sides have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring battle here in the Nation's capital finally on Sunday afternoon for a couple of different really good reasons. Winnipeg enters off B2B losses, including a 6-3 loss at the Isles just last night. They return home after this for a five-game homestand, so they'll have to be careful not to "look past" the Capitals today. Washington has won four of its last five, but off a 7-6 shootout win hee over Carolina last time out, we're expecting a much more defensive affair this time around. Washington has seen the total go "over" the number in three straight after that high-scoring win, but note that the Capitals have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. This number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Celtics/Bulls (ULTIMATE TOP)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but the overall situation that each finds itself coming into this one, combined with some strong supporting trends points to this one being a lot more of a defensive battle than what this O/U line is suggesting. The C's have won eight straight after their 129-102 win at Detroit just last night. They continue their road trip after this with back-to-back games at Atlanta. Overall its a favorable part of the schedule for the Celtics. But Chicago plays with revenge after a 129-112 loss to Boston back in February here, and note that the Bulls have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a dog vs. an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* Charleston/Alabama UNDER (NCAA FIRST RND TOY)

The 27-7 Charleston Cougars are going for their 13th consecutive win, but to do that the 13th seed will have to get by the No. 4 sedd in 21-11 Alabama. The Cougars did win the CAA in beating Stony Brook 82-79, but they didn't cover the 10.5-point spread. The Tide finished fifth in the SEC and lost to the Gators by a score of 102-88 in the quarterfinals of the Conference Tournament. If we delve a little closer into Charleston's numbers though, we find that it finished 88th overall, with a strength of schedule that was ranked 226th in the country. The Tide's weakness this year was their play on the defensive end, but they catch a break here in our estimation. We're expecting a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring affair; the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER Drake/Washington State.

We're expecting a wide-open shootout here between No. 10 seed Drake and No. 7 seed Washington State. These teams matchup well. It won't be a cake-walk for Washington State. Both have "played down" at times to the level of their competition, but they've also stepped up their against tougher opponents, as evidenced by their winning seasonal records in Quad 1 games. Washington State has a tough defense, but Drake will be pushing the pace. Look for this total to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Bulls/Rockets (NON-CONF TOW)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're expecting this non-conference game to be less-intense offensively. Chicago is 34-35 overall, but just 16-18 on the road, while Houston is 33-35 overall, but 23-11 at home. The Bulls are off two straight wins after holding on for the 110-107 victory over Portland. Chicago has seen the total go "over" in five straight, but that's significant to note here as the Bulls have in fact seen the total go "under" in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Houston plays with revenge here after falling 124-119 in OT at Chicago back in January, and note that the Rockets have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. The Rockets have won six straight. They've seen the total go "over" in three straight after beating Washington 137-114, but note that Houston has seen the total go "under" in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. Look for the rematch to be a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring affair; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Blues/Senators (NON-CONF TOW)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but we're finally expecting more of a defensive affair here between the Blues and Senators on Thursday night. Just a great overall "situational" play and as primarily situational cappers, this one falls right into our wheelhouse. St. Louis had its four-game win streak come to an end in a 4-3 loss at Colorado last time out. It has a difficult schedule ahead, with games at Minnesota, followed by a home contest vs. Vegas, so it'll have to be careful not to look past the Senators, who they beat 4-2 at home back in December. The Sens enter off B2B high-scoring losses, but are now slightly favored here in this position. Ottawa will be doubling-down defensively here after alling 13 goals over its last two losses and when taking into account the other situational information listed above, all signs do point to this being a defensive affair, not a high-scoring shootout in my opinion; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Leafs/Capitals (EASTERN CONFERENCE NON-DIVISIONAL TOY)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring affair here on Wednesday in our opinion finally. Toronto is 20-8 on the road, but it's off back-to-back losses, including a 4-3 setback at Philly just last night. Note that TO has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row though. Washington has been playing well of late, returning hoe from a five-game Western road-swing by going 3-2 overall, including winning the final three games. Note though that the Caps have interestingly seen the total dip below the posted number in three of their last four after three or more straight victories in a row. Expect these Eastern conference opponents to battle to a classic lower-scoring battle here; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Grambling/Montanta State.

Two teams looking to advance past the First Four collide on Wednesday night and in our opinion, everything points to a wide-open and much higher-scoring affair than what this O/U line is suggesting. Both 16 seeds. Grambling State finally got past Texas Southern in the SWAC, avenging two-straight losses in the Conference Tourney Championship Game, while Montana State rode some hot 3-point shooting to win its final four games to win the Big Sky Conference Tournament and earn a third-straight NCAA Tournament bid. Coming into the regular season finale they were just 13-17. Momentum is a very real thing and it's a factor in which the oddsmakers often have a difficult time properly quantifying into a line, and that's the case here. Look for each side to push the pace and then look for this total to fly "over" the number before the final horn blares!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Rockets/Wizards (ASSASSIN)

The Rockets are playing their best basketball of the season right nbow. They've won five straight and seven of their last eight. Note though that Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 after five or more SU victories in a row. The Wizards play with revenge after a 135-119 loss at Houston just last week, and note that Washington has seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS road loss vs. an opponent. The Wizards have lost four straight SU/ATS, and they've seen the total go "over" in three straight, but note that Washington has also seen the total go "under" in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. While their last matchup last week flew "over" the number, all signs point to more of a defensive affair this time around in the Nation's capital; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER Wagner/Howard (TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER)

The winner of this one will have the unenviable matchup of UNC right after, but regardless, these two hopeful 16 seeds have nothing to lose and we're definitely expecting a faster pace. Both teams managed to come together at the right time and win their conference tournaments. The Bisons though have one of the worst defenses in the nation and are notorious in turning the ball over (21.7% of possessions.) With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Sabres/Kraken (NON-CONF TOW)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting this non-conference affair to be much more wide open. Buffalo is 15-14-4-0 on the road, while Seattle is 14-14-5-1 at home. The Sabres are off the 4-1 loss at Detroit, snapping a three-game win streak. They lost 5-2 to Seattle at home back on January 9th, and note that Buffalo has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Seattle enters off four straight losses. It can't afford to look past anyone right now. Now sixth in the Pacific at 28-26, and with a tricky two-game road trip after this starting in Vegas, we're expecting the home side to put an emphasis on pushing the pace. Overall, this one sets up well from a variety of different angles to soar "over" this posted number!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Wisconsin/Illinois (BIG TEN TOURNEY CHAMPIONSHIP)

These teams have played to some high-scoring games to reach the Championship game, but we're finally expecting more of a defensive affair with everything on the line here. Wisconsin managed to knock off No. 1 seed Purdue to reach this for this game for the first time since 2016/17, while Illinois beat Nebraska. These teams did have one game in the regular season, and it was a high-scoring one in the Illini's 91-83 victory, but note that Wisconsin has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in four of its last five in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference loss vs. an opponent as a favorite. This number is now a little bit TOO high, so the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Heat/Pistons (TOTAL ASSASSIN)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a shootout finally here in Detroit on Sunday afternoon in our opinion. Miami broke a four-game slide here at Detroit two days ago with a 108-95 win. We're expecting the Heat to keep the foot on the gas here to try and secure a second straight victory. The only difference we see this time around though is the Pistons being a lot more competitive until the end. Also not, Detroit has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 95 or fewer points in. With each team pushing the pace from start to finish like we suspect, all signs do indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Isles/Rangers.

These teams both played to high-scoring games just yesterday, so we don't need to overanlayze this pick on the second day of the back-to-back for each. Each will be tired and we're expecting these New York rivals to double down on the defensive end. The Isles fell 4-3 in OT to Ottawa, allowing three unanswered goals at the end. They've lost three in a row. Note that the Isles have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after three or more straight "overs" in a row. The Rangers have won four of their last five after yesterday's big 7-4 win at the Penguins. Now back at home after a successful road trip, eveything points to a very defensive battle; this number is high, the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* UNDER SDSU/Utah State.

Quick turn-arounds in these tournaments means that finding edges and angles wherever you can to exploit is the key to success, and as primarily "situational" cappers, this one falls right into our wheelhouse. SDSU finished 23-9, while Utah State was 27-5. They're pretty evenly matched. They split their regular season series 1-1 this year. But after each played to overtime yesterday, to advance to this contest, we're absolutely expecting each team to be fatigued here in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Look for each to double down defensively after their difficult high-scoring contest yesterday; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Heat/Pistons (EAST-CONF NON-DIV TOM)

Here's a great "situational" play in our opinion. Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a wide-open offensive affair here. Miami will be super pumped here to stop a four-game slide, most recently a 100-88 loss at home to Denver. That result though is important for us betting the "over" here for TWO reasons, the first in that Miami has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of their last ten off a SU/ATS home loss in which it was held to 89 or fewer points in, and secondly the Heat have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four as well after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. This is the start of two straight here and we're expecting each side to push the pace in this first one. Detroit is arguably playing its best basketball of the season right now by winning three of its last four. This number is low, the play is indeed on the "over!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Pitt/UNC (ACC TOURNEY TOY)

Pitt beat Wake Forest 81-69 to advanced to the quarterfinal of the ACC, while UNC beat FSU 92-67. Both games went "over" the number, but we're finally expecting a much tighter, and ultimatley lower-scoring battle here on Friday night. The strength of each side has been on the offensive end all season, and the oddsmakers know that. The public knows that. But now here at this point of the tournament, the value has swung the other way as far as the total is concerned in our opinion (and finally, note that UNC has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in three of its last four off a SU/ATS win and playing with 0 days rest.) This number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports 

10* UNDER Kent State/Toledo (MAC TOTAL OF YEAR)

This is just a great situational play. Kent finished 15-16, while Toledo was 20-11. Kent finished the season with two straight losses, including an 86-71 setback to Toledo in the finale. Note though that the Flashes have seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. Toledo finished with three straight wins and all three victories went "over" the number, but note that's also important as the Rockets have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. We're expecting a MUCH more defensive battle between these foes here in the rematch; this number is indeed high, the play is the "under!"

AAA Sports

10* OVER Bulls/Pacers (CENTRAL DIV. TOY)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're anticipating this particular contest here tonight on Wednesday to finally be more of a wide-open offensive affair. Chicago is coming off B2B losses, most recently a 127-92 setback at home to Dallas. That result though is significant to note though as the Bulls have in fact seen the total soar "over" the number in seven of their last ten after a SU/ATS home loss in which they were held to 95 or fewer points in. The Pacers have won three of their last four, including the last two on the road. Indiana has seen the total go "under" in three straight, but note that the Pacers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. With each of these hungry division rivals pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs do indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* OVER Davidson/Fordham (A-10 TOURNEY TOY)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're expecting a much more wide-open affair this time around finally between Davidson and Fordham. The A-10 Tourney gets going here with 15-16 Davidson facing off against 12-19 Fordham. The Wildcats finished the year by losing five straight. The beat Fordham 68-53 on February 20th, and note that the Rams have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss in which they were held to 55 or fewer points in. With each team pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Milwaukee/UNK (Horizon League Tourney TOY)

These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring affairs of late, but we're finally expecting more of a defensive battle here between Milwaukee and Northern Kentucky on Monday night. Northern Kentucky enters averaging 74.8 PPG, while allowing 72.9, while Milwaukee averages 79.5 PPG, while conceding 78.6. Milwaukee finished 19-14 overall, while UNK was 18-14. The Panthers lost 90-72 at Northern Kentucky on January 18th, but then bounced back and won 73-72 at home on February 17th. These two evenly matched sides have played to a couple of high-scoring affairs to reach this point of the tournament, but everything finally points to much more of a defensive battle in our opinion this time around; this number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* UNDER Warriors/Spurs (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive battle in our opinion here. These teams just played and the Spurs managed the 126-113 road win as 12.5-point dogs, but note that GS has seen the total dip below the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. Look for SA to come back down to Earth here and expect the Warriors to finally double down on the defensive end after that pathetic performance last time out; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

AAA Sports

10* OVER Blues/Bruins (NON-CONF TOW)

The Bruins have either seen the total go "under" the number, or "push" on the total over their last five games, but we're finally anticipating much more of a wide-open offensive affair here. One of the strengths of Boston is its ability to play any type of game, whether it be a wide-open shootout, or a shutdown defensive one. The Blues have been terrible of late, especially offensively, but we're expecting the visitors to open up the playbook here and to push things from start to finish. This will of course leave the Blues open on the backend. St. Louis has lost three in a row, most recently a 4-0 loss at the Rangers, but note that the Blues have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of their last ten following a shutout road loss. A great spot to wager on the "over!" 

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10* OVER Gardner Webb/UNC Asheville.

This is a great situational play. Both teams ended the regular season with B2B UNDERS, and they both opened the Tournament with low-scoring victories as well. That's signficant for us to take note of though for two reason. Reason 1: Gardner Webb has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in three of its last four after playing to three or more straight UNDERS in a row. Reason 2: UNC Asheville has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 11 in the same position. The last time these teams played, Gardner Webb managed the 78-77 victory in late February, and we're expecting an even higher-scoring "shootout" this time around; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* OVER Radford/High Point (BIG SOUTH TOURNEY TOY)

We had a play on Radford in its 67-60 win over SCUS in its opening round of the Big South Conference Tournament. The Highlanders went on to cover the five points, but the total stayed well under the number of 139.5 in that one. Including its final two regular season losses, Radford has now seen the total go "under" in three straight, but that's significant to note as the Highlanders have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. High Point finished 24-7 and No. 1 in the regular season in the Conference. It's three-game win streak to end the season was snapped in a 74-72 loss at Longwood, but note that High Point has seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four when playing with five or more days of rest. Expect a much faster pace to this contest and then look for the total to sail well "over" the number before the final horn blares!

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10* UNDER Cal State Fullerton/UC Riverside (BIG WEST TOY)

As primarily situational handicappers, this one falls right into our "wheelhouse." These teams are needing a win here and we're expecting that to translate into a defensive battle. There are many reasons to believe it'll be a defensive war instead of a wide-open offensive shootout. UC Riverside averages 69.6 PPG, while CSU Fullerton averages just 67.6. Each team's defense catches a break this week. The Highlanders beat the Titans 81-73 as 1.5-point favorites on the road on February 15th, and note that Cal State Fullerton has in fact seen the total go UNDER the number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU and ATS conference home loss as an underdog vs. an opponent. In our opinion, this one has defensive "war" written all over it; the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Wizards/Jazz (NON-CONF TOM)

Looking at the sides here, not really attractive betting either team. Washington is just 9-51 overall this year, including 6-26 on the road, while Utah is only 23-34 overall, but a much more respectable 18-11 at home. But Utah returns home after going winless on its road trip, most recently falling 126-120 at Miami. Previous to that the Jazz had seen the total go "under" in four straight. As primarily situational cappers, these are the types of games that we're always on the look out for. The first game back after a road trip can be a difficult one. It can be a letdown spot if its been a successful road trip, or it can be the starting point of a new win streak if the team got destroyed away from friendly confines. And so that's the case here for Utah, as we think it'll for sure be looking to double down on the defensive end here to snap the three-game slide. The Jazz actually beat the Wizards 123-108 in the Nation's capital back on January 25th. But that's significant to note, because the Wizards have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 games when trying to avenge a straight up and against the spread loss against an opponent. After their most recent 140-115 loss at the Clippers, following a 134-131 OT loss at the Lakers, the Wizards have lost 14 straight. This is the end of a three-game trip. They'll have a night off before playing Orlando at home after this. But for us, we see this one playing out similar to the first matchup between these clubs. Utah averages 114.6 PPG, and the Jazz average 117.5. Add those two averages together and it comes to well "under" tonight's total on this contest. We don't think either team will even reach its average tonight though. For all the reasons listed above, the play is the UNDER.

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10* OVER Pistons/Magic (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been playing to several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more a high-scoring "shootout" here on Sunday in our opinion. Detroit has now seen the total go "under" in eight straight after its most recent 110-100 loss to Cleveland (note though that the Pistons have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after a SU/ATS loss in which it was held to 100 or fewer points in.) Orlando is off B2B wins. It's seen the total go "under" in three straight, but that's significant to note as the Magic have seen the total go "over" the number in four of their last five after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. With each team pushing the pace like we suspect, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER OCSC/Miami (TOM)

As primarily situational cappers, we love the way this one sets up to be a higher-scoring affair. Both teams played to lower-scoring games to open the season, and because of that we absolutely believe there's an overreaction here and that this O/U line is in fact way too low now. OCSC went to a 0-0 draw tih Montreal, while Miami opened with a 2-0 win over Real Salt Lake, before the uninspiring 1-1 draw with LA to close out Week 1. With two games under their belts and now back at home, we're expecting Messi's side to push the pace from start to finish here. With this faster-paced affair like we're anticipating, all signs do indeed point to this total eclipsing the posted number sooner, rather than later; the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER OKS/Texas (BIG 12 TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a much tighter, and lower-scoring battle finally here between these BIG 12 opponents on Saturday afternoon in our opinion. Oklahoma State is 12-16 overall, including just 1-7 on the road, while Texas is 18-10 overall, including 12-4 at home. The Cowboys are big underdogs after two straight home losses. OKS has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in five straight, but that's significant for us to take note of as the Cowboys have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in nine of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. Texas is off an upset 81-69 win at Texas Tech as a three-point dog, and note that the Longhorns have seen the total go "under" the number in three of their last four off an upset SU/ATS conference road win as a dog. Texas won't need to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish, so expect this slower-paced affair to stay well "under" once the final horn blares!

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10* UNDER ODU/Georgia Southern.

Overall we love the way this one sets up to be a lower-scoring defensive battle. This one is all about the overall "situation," combined with a couple of strong O/U ATS stat that fully support us here. ODU is 7-23 overall, including only 1-11 on the road. Georgia Southern is 7-23 overall as well, but 5-6 at home. This is a game that each club will feel it has an opportunity to actually win in. Expect this to tranlsate into a defensive affair. Georgia Southern has seen the total go "over" in six straight now, but despite its most recent 83-73 victory over Marshall, note that the Eagles have still seen the total go "under" the number eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Saint Mary's/Pepperdine (WEST COAST TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to much more of a defensive affair in this contest finally here at Pepperdine on Thursday night. Just a great situational play overall for a few different reasons. Saint Mary's is 23-6, including a perfect 8-0 on the road. 6-2 ATS. Pepperdine is just 12-18 overall, but 9-7 SU and 8-6 ATS. The Waves play with revenge here after a humbling 103-59 loss at the Gaels in the middle of the month, and note that Pepperdine has seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference road loss vs. an opponent. Saint Mary's is off the 88-62 win over San Diego and it's now seen the total go "over" the number in three straight, which is significant to note as the Gaels have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. The overall situation that each team finds itself in points to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned in this one!

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10* OVER Rockets/Suns (WEST-CONF NON-DIV TOM)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games, but all signs point to more of a wide-open shootout finally here in the opener of two straight between the clubs. Houston is 25-33, but only 5-23 on the road, while Phoenix is 33-24, including 18-11 at home. After back-to-back losses to OKC, the Rockets have now seen the total go "under" the number in three straight, but that's significant to note, as Houston has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. The Suns have played to four straight "unders," but after three whole nights off between games, we're expecting the well-rested home side to come out fired up here and to push the pace from start to finish. Finally note that the Suns play with revenge after a 114-110 loss to Houston just last week as three-point favorites, and note that Phoenix has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 12 in trying to avenge a SU/ATS loss as a favorite vs. an opponent; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* OVER Jackets/Rangers (METROPOLITAN TOY)

The stars and the planets have aligned for a very offensive affair here in our opinion. Columbus is 19-28-9-1, including only 9-13-5-1 on the road, while the Rangers are 39-17-1-2, including 20-7-0-0 at home. The Jackets are off the 4-2 win here two nights ago, but note that the Rangers have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last ten in trying to avenge a home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. New York has now seen the total go "under" in five straight, but that's significant to note as well as the Rangers have in fact seen the total "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Expect a much faster-paced and ultimately higher-scoring affair here in the re-match; this number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* Heat/Kings OVER (NON-CONF TOM)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of an offensive affair in this contest on Monday in Sacramento. Miami is 31-25 overall, including 16-12 on the road, while Sacramento is 32-23 overall, including 16-9 at home. Miami is 4-1 SU in its last five and it's seen the total go "over" in five straight. But that's significant to note here, as Sacramento has in fact seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. The Kings have won three in a row, including a 123-107 win at the Clippers just last night. Now on the second game of the B2B scenario, we expect the defense to take a step-back, not the offense for these efficient scorers. With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* OVER Canes/Sabres (EAST-CONF NON-DIV TOY)

As primarily "situational" cappers, this one falls right into our wheelhouse. Both sides have been playing to some lower-scoring contests of late, but everything now finally points to more of a wide-open "shootout" here on Sunday night in our opinion. Carolina is coming off a 2-1 home loss to Dallas. It's scored just two goals in its last two games. Note though that the Hurricanes have seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 off a home loss as a favorite. They beat the Sabres 6-2 back on December 2nd, and while we're expecting another high-scoring game this time around, we believe it'll be much more competitive. The Sabres have won two straight. Both were on the road vs. "lesser" competition. Looking to avenge the earlier loss and to add to the winning run, everything points to the home side keeping the foot on the gas from start to finish. This number is low, the play is the "over!" 

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10* UNDER Youngstown State/Wisconsin Green Bay (HORIZON LEAGUE TOM)

Youngstown State is 20-9, but just 7-7 on the road. Wisconsin Green Bay is 17-11 overall, including 10-3 at home. The Penguins are off an 84-80 OT win over Milwaukee Wisconsin. They've seen the total go "over" the number in seven straight now. They play with revenge after an 84-83 loss to the Phoenix as 11-point favorites at home back on February 10th, and note that Youngstown State has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. The Phoenix though have lost two straight since that upset, both as favorites. They've failed to reach the 60-point plateau in either. We have a hard time seeing them mustering much of an offensive attack this afternoon either; for all the reasons listed above, the play is the "under!" 

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10* BC/NC State UNDER (ACC TOM)

We base our picks on many different things. This particular one is just a great "situational" play. We're primarily situational handicappers, and we're also contrarian at heart. This particular play definitely falls right into our "wheel house." Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring battle here between these two hungry sides. BC is 15-11 overall, but just 4-5 on the road, while NC State is 16-10 overall, including 11-4 at home. BC is off an 84-76 loss at FSU and it's now seen the total go "over" in three straight. Note thought that the Eagles have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. They lost 84-78 in OT at home to the Wolfpack, and note as well that BC has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six in trying to avenge a SU/ATS home conference home loss as a favorite vs. an opponent. NC State is off an 87-73 home loss to Syracuse as a seven-point fav, and note that the Wolfpack have seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after a SU/ATS conference home loss as a favorite. With each side doubling down defensively like we suspect, everything does indeed point to the "under" as the correct call in this one!

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10* UNDER Wild/Oilers (WEST-CONF NON-DIV TOM)

This is a great "situational" play. This one sets up well to be a lower-scoring defensive battle in our opinion. Both sides have been playing to several higher-scoring battles of late, but the overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with some strong supporting O/U ATS stats, does all point to this evening's contest being a much more defensive battle. Minnesota is just 26-24 after a 6-3 loss at Winnipeg last time out. Previous to that it beat Vancouver 10-7. But with a contest at Seattle tomorrow night, we see the visiting side playing a more defensive "trap" style of contest this evening, so as to be able to reserve some gas for tomorrow night's difficult affair. The Wild play with revenge as well after a high-scoring 4-3 loss at Edmonton in December. After their 6-5 OT home loss to the Oilers, the Bruins have seen the total go "over" the number in five straight, but that's also significant for us to take note of, as Boston has in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of its last ten after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row; this number is high, the play is indeed on the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Bruins/Flames (ASSASSIN)

This is a great situational play. The Bruins have played three straight extra-period games, and gone 2-1 in the process. All three games went "over" the number, but note that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. One of those wins came just last night in a tough 6-5 OT win at Edmonton. Now playing the second game of the B2B here, we're absolutely expecting fatigue to be an issue. Boston actually plays with revenge as well after a 4-1 loss at home to Calgary at the start of the month. The Flames snapped a three-game slide with a 6-3 win over Winnipeg here last time out, but we're for sure expecting a more methodical pace here with Boston in town; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Bruins/Oilers (NON-CONF TOM)

These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs point to much more of a lower-scoring affair this time around in our opinion. Boston is 33-12-9-2, including 15-5-5-1 on the road, while Edmonton is 33-18-1-0 overall, including 17-6-1-0 at home. The Bruins just snapped a four-game slide with a 4-3 shootout win over Dallas, but with a game tomorrow night in Calgary, we expect the visiting side to play a more conservative defensive affair this evening. Edmonton has won two in a row. It's seen the total go "over" the number in five straight, but that's definitely significant for us to take note of here as the Oilers have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. With each team doubling-down on the defensive end like we suspect tonight, all signs do indeed point to the "under" as the correct call as far as the total is concerned!

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10* UNDER Saint Bonaventure/La Salle (A-10 TOY)

This is a great "situational" play, which is backed by some strong supporting O/U ATS trends, and all of these factors collide here and make this play strong enough to become our one and only A-10 TOY. Saint Bonaventure is 16-9 overall, but just 4-4 on the road, while La Salle is 12-14 overall, including 8-6 at home. The Bonnies have won two straight, most recently holding on for an 81-80 OT thriller at home over Davidson. St. Bonaventure has now seen the total fly "over" the number in five straight, but that's signficant for us to take note of here, as the Bonnies have in fact seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of their last ten after playing to five or more straight "overs" in a row. La Salle just snapped a five-game losing streak with an 82-81 win over UMass as a six-point dog, but note that the Explorers have seen the total go "under" the number in four of their last five off a SU/ATS conference victory as an underdog. The overall situation that each team finds itself coming into this one, combined with the above listed trends, does indeed make the "under" the correct call as far as the total is concerned in our opinion!

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10* OVER FAMU/Alcorn State (SWAC TOM)

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but we're now finally anticipating much more of a wide-open "shootout" here between these conference rivals on Monday night. FAMU is just 4-19, including only 2-12 on the road, while Alcorn State is only a slightly better 8-17 overall, including 3-3 at home. This is a game that each side will believe that it can actually win, and because of that, we're definitely expecting a faster-paced, wide-open affair. FAMU has lost five straight, but note that the Rattlers have in fact seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 12 after five or more straight losses in a row. They play with revenge as well after a 76-67 home loss to Alcorn State as 2.5-point dogs back in January, and note that the Rattlers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of their last four in trying to avenge a SU/ATS conference home loss vs. an opponent. The Braves are coming off three straight SU/ATS victories, with all three games going "under" the number. That's also significant for us to take note of though, as Alcorn State has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "unders" in a row. This total is low in our opinion, the play is indeed on the "over!"  

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10* OVER Wings/Kraken (ASSASSIN)

Both teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a wide-open offensive battle here on Monday in our opinion. The Wings are 28-20-6-0 overall, including 13-12-1-0 on the road, while the Kraken are 23-21-6-4, including 11-9-3-1 at home. Detroit snapped a two-game slide with a 5-0 win at Calgary last time out. It's seen the total go "under" in two straight. The Wings lost to Seattle 5-4 in OT at the start of the season, but note that Detroit has seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten in trying to avenge a home loss vs. an opponent. Seattle has snapped a three-game slide by winning two straight, most recent a 4-1 upset at Boston. That was three nights ago. Note that Seattle has seen the total go "over" the number in three of its last four after playing with three or more nights of rest. With each team pushing the pace like we anticipate, all signs do indeed point to this total flying "over" the number sooner, rather than later!

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10* UNDER Murray State/Drake (MISSOURI VALLEY TOY)

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games lately, but all signs point to much more of a defensive battle here finally in our opinion. Murray State is 11-15, including 4-6 on the road, while Drake is 21-5, including 13-0 at home. The Racers won't be rolling over here despite being a big dog, as they come in off B2B convincing victories, most recently an 82-72 win over Missouri State (note though that Murray State has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row.) Drake has won three straight, with two of the three games flying "over" the number, but note that the Bulldogs have in fact seen the total go "under" the number in seven of their last ten after three or more SU victories in a row. We think Murray State will do everything it can to slow down the pace of this one; this number is high, the play is the "under!" 

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10* UNDER Chelseas/Man City.

These teams have been involved in several higher-scoring games of late, but everything finally points to a much tighter, and ultimately lower-scoring "under" on Saturday afternoon in our opinion. Chelsea is in tenth, and Man City is second. Last weekend the Blues won 3-1, but we expect they'll be in for a "war of attrition" this weekend. The home side got past FC Copenhagen 3-1 in Champions League this week, and while confident, we don't anticipate a wide-open affair, as City will be cautious here in this spot vs. the Blues. With each side waiting for the other to make the first mistake, all signs point to this one staying well "under" the number once it's all said and done; the play is the "under!" 

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