Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons.

The Green Bay Packers did it again in Dallas. They used smoke and mirrors, and Aaron Rodgers magic to escape with a 34-31 win over the Cowboys. Now they gave up 429 yards, and Dak Prescott threw for 302 yards and three TDs. It was the fourth time in five games that an opposing quarterback threw for at least 300 yards on this Green Bay defense. The one exception was when Eli Manning threw for 299 yards at Lambeau a week earlier. Even Sam Bradford and Matt Barkley (Bears backup) have torched the Packers secondary. It could get ugly here in Atlanta, facing the league's #1 offense. The Falcons not only have a stud quarterback, but they can also play defense, and run the football. They say defense wins championships, and that's not good news for Green Bay fans. You rarely see one dimensional teams make it this far in the playoffs, and I think we'll see the Packers magical run come to an end here in the NFC Championship Game.

Take ATL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Le'Veon Bell told reporters this week that he considers himself the "Stephen Curry of football". I don't know about all that, but he certainly is a beast in the backfield for the Steelers. Bell ran for 167 yards and two TDs on 29 carries in a win over Miami last week. He had a rushing and a receiving TD in a win over the Ravens in his previous start. The Steelers will play at Kansas City, and the Chiefs have struggled to stop the run. Kansas City allowed opponents to average 121 rushing yards per game, ranking 26th in the NFL during the regular season. I like Bell's chances of finding "Pay Dirt". He ran for 144 yards on just 18 carries in a 43-14 home win over the Chiefs during the regular season. Kansas City has managed to win a dozen games this season, despite the fact that they have a below average quarterback, not much of a running game, and a lack of talent in the receiving corps. You take a look at some of their wins, and you realize that this team is quite fortunate to have made it this far. They beat Atlanta on a failed PAT that went for two points the other way. They needed to score 17 unanswered points in the fourth quarter to come back and beat the Panthers, and in Week 1 they rallied to beat the Chargers after trailing 21-3 at half time. I don't think the Chiefs can keep on relying on luck here against the NFL's top teams in the playoffs.

Take PIT.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the New York Giants.

Green Bay has scored 30 or more points in four straight games, and comes into Wild Card Weekend as winners of six straight. The Packers success on offense has made everybody forget about how bad this team was in the first half of the season, and there are still plenty of reasons to be concerned about this defense. Mathew Stafford lit up the Packers secondary for 347 yards and two TDs last week, and week earlier Sam Bradford torched them for for 383 yards and three TDs. The week before that it was Chicago's backup Matt Barkley throwing for 362 yards and a pair of TDs. Eli Manning hasn't had his best season, but he's won a pair of Super Bowls and has a reputation for elevating his game in the post-season. He's facing a Packers defense that ranks 31st in the NFL against the pass. Only the Saints gave up more passing yards, and only the Browns conceded more TDs. New York hasn't had a lot of success running the football, but Rahsad Jennings might be to blame for that. Jennings has averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, and in recent weeks he's taken a back seat to rookie Paul Perkins. The former UCLA Bruin ran for 102 yards on 21 carries last week, and he's been far more reliable than Jennings down the stretch. As good as the Packers have looked the last few weeks, the old saying is: "Defense Wins Championships". The Giants are the more complete team, and I like their chances of hanging with Green Bay at Lambeau.

Take NYG.

GL,

Jesse Schule

10*

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Baltimore Ravens.

While neither of these two teams are going to the playoffs, I like the Ravens to end the season on a high not with a win in Cincinnati. The Bengals are going to rest some injured players, and will be without several key players including: Tyler Eifert, A.J. Green and Vontaze Burfict. The Ravens can finish with a winning record if they win today, and this could be a huge game for veteran receiver Steve Smith, who is expected to retire after this season. Flacco has played well down the stretch, throwing for over 1400 yards with 10 TDs and five INTs in his last five starts. The Ravens won three of those games, with losses at New England and Pittsburgh. The Ravens are 8-0 ATS in their last eight versus division rivals, and that trend should continue here today.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Chiefs.

The Chiefs ran all over the Titans last week, running for 157 yards and two TDs. They led 17-7 at halftime, but ended up losing by a score of 19-17 to Tennessee. They host Denver tonight, needing a victory to clinch a spot in the playoffs. The Broncos are the defending Super Bowl champs, but they are not going to get a chance to defend their title. Denver has really struggled since C.J. Anderson went down with an injury, and they haven't been able to get anything going on the ground with Devontae Booker and Justin Forsett. The Broncos still rank #1 in the NFL against the pass, but they haven't been able to stop the run. Denver ranks 27th in the NFL allowing 117 yards per game. The Chiefs have covered the spread in five straight when coming off a loss.

Take KC.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Tampa Bay Bucs.

The Bucs have won five of their last six overall after coming up short in a 26-20 defeat at Dallas on Sunday night. They turned the ball over four times in that loss, putting their defense in a tough spot. Heading into last Sunday's game the Bucs had won five straight, limiting opponents to an average of less than 13 points per game during that span. One of those wins came against New Orleans, and they picked off Drew Brees three times in a 16-11 home win. Brees is coming off a big game on the road at Arizona, but the Cardinals look like a team that has already thrown in the towel. The Bucs are still fighting for a playoff spot, and they should go all out here at the Super Dome. These two teams have gone under the total in 13 of the last 16 meetings, and the Saints have failed to reach the total in seven straight versus teams with a winning record. The Bucs have covered the spread in five straight road games, and four of their last five meetings with the Saints.

Take TB,

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.

The Cardinals came into this season expected to be a Super Bowl contender, but here in Week 15 they have just five wins. The Saints come into Arizona with a 5-8 record, but they've lost four of their last five games, and Drew Brees has struggled during that span. Brees is coming off back to back games without a TD pass, throwing a whopping six picks in those losses. He'll face an Arizona defense that ranks #1 overall, and second overall versus the pass. The Saints defense ranks near the bottom of the league, allowing opponents to average over 366 yards per game. While the Cardinals have struggled on the road, they've been pretty good at home, with a record of 4-2-1. Their last home game was a 31-23 win over Washington, and Carson Palmer threw for 300 yards and three TDs on 30-of-46 passing. I think this is a great spot for Palmer and Arizona to bounce back from a tough road loss in bad weather last week.

Take ZONA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

After losing to the Patriots at Foxboro, the Ravens still control their own destiny. They are just one game back of the Steelers in the AFC North, and they play at Pittsburgh next week. They need to win here at home this Sunday against the Eagles, a team that has come crashing back down to earth after a hot start. Carson Wentz appeared to be wise beyond his years in the first half of the season, but he's thrown just four TD passes and nine INTs in his last six starts. He faces one of the NFL's toughest defenses this week, and the Ravens rank 2nd overall with 15 INTs this season. "This is at least where you want to be," Ravens coach John Harbaugh said. "The opportunity to control your own fate with victory is really what you hope for at this time of the season. Two teams in our division have that -- us and the Steelers. We'll both be fighting for that division championship." The Eagles have failed to cover the spread in four straight, while the Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.

Take BAL.

GL,

Jesse Schule.

This is a 10* play on the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens have won four of their last five games, and their only loss during that span came by a score of 27-17 at Dallas. The Patriots are 10-2, but both of those losses came at home in Foxboro. Brady's favorite target Rob Gronkowski is done for the year with a back injury, and I think the Pats are a little overrated here as they get set to host the league's #1 ranked defense. Joe Flacco threw for a season high 381 yards and four TDs on 36-of-47 passing in a blowout win over Miami last Sunday, and he had a big game the last time he faced the Patriots. Baltimore lost 35-31 at New England in the 2014 playoffs, and Flacco threw for 292 yards and four TDs in a losing effort. The Ravens actually held a 14 point lead in that game, but couldn't hang on. Dennis Pitta looked like a man among boys last week, catching nine passes for 90 yards and two TDs. The Ravens defense held Jay Ajayi to just 61 yards on 12 carries, and they picked off Ryan Tannehill three times. This looks like a great spot to take the Ravens getting a bunch of points.

Take BAL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Dallas Cowboys 1st Half.

The Giants are the only team in the NFL that has beat the Cowboys, but I don't like their chances of doing it twice. The Giants actually rank 5th in the NFL in rushing defense, holding opponents under 100 yards per game. They got shredded for well over 100 yards in Pittsburgh last week though, and when I look at their schedule I can see those numbers may be skewed. Their six game win streak ended in Steel Town last week, but check out the six teams they beat during that run. The Browns, Rams, Bears, Eagles, and both the Ravens and Bengals who were really banged up. With a schedule like that, it's not surprising they put up some nice numbers. The Cowboys will be looking to avenge this season's only loss, and I expect Zeke to run all over these Giants.

Take DAL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins.

Washington was riding a 6-1-1 run heading into Thanksgiving, but they lost to the NFL's best team in Dallas by a score of 31-26. They followed that up with another tough loss on the road at Arizona, and now they face a must win game at Philly if they want to keep any playoff hopes alive. The Eagles have lost five of their last six, and they can't blame the schedule for their struggles. They are coming off a 32-14 loss to the Bengals, and Carson Wentz threw three INTs in that game. The rookie quarterback looked like a seasoned veteran in his first four games, but he's since thrown twice as many picks (10) as TDs (5). The Redskins expect to get Jordan Reed back this week, and he didn't play when the Eagles lost at Washington earlier in the year. Wentz was sacked five times, and only completed 11 passes in the first meeting, and I don't see things changing much this time around. Washington has won four of the last five in this series, and they are 5-0 ATS in those games.

Take WAS.

GL,

Jesse Schule

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CAR@SEA to go OVER the total.

The Panthers are in dead last in the NFC South, and they come into Seattle with one of the league's worst defenses. They are particularly vulnerable against the pass, ranking 27th in the NFL, allowing opponents to average 275 yards per game. Russell Wilson really struggled in Tampa last week, but he had had thrown for over 900 yards with six TDs and no INTs in his previous three games. He threw for 348 yards and three TDs in a win over the Patriots at New England just two weeks ago. These two teams played twice last year, and both those games went over the total. Wilson threw for 366 yards and three TDs on 31-of-48 passing in a 31-24 loss at Carolina in the playoffs. The Panthers have gone over in four of their last five road games, and five straight at Seattle. I think the Seahawks will be forced to throw the ball here in order to take advantage of the Panthers poor secondary, which should result in another high scoring game between these two teams.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Oakland Raiders.

The Raiders have won five straight, and eight of their last nine overall. Derek Carr threw for 315 yards and two TDs on 26-of-38 passing in a 35-32 win over Carolina last week. The Raiders will host the Buffalo Bills, who just barely beat Jacksonville last week. Buffalo leads the NFL in rushing, averaging 157 yards per game. Buffalo is 3-3 on the road this year, but those wins came against the Patriots without Brady, the Bengals without A.J. Green, and against the 4-7 Rams. The Raiders do not look all that impressive defensively, but they have the talent to come up with key plays. DE Khalil Mack has nine sacks, 10 tackles for a loss, three forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries in his last eight games. The Bills have failed to cover in four straight versus Oakland, and four of their last five overall. The Raiders have covered the spread in four of their last five games.

Take OAK.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DAL@MIN to go OVER the total.
The Cowboys have won 10 in a row, but that streak can't last forever. Dallas will lose, it's just a matter of when. There will be plenty of situational handicappers picking Minnesota to record the upset here at home, but I just don't think the Vikes match up well versus Dallas. The Cowboys weakness is that they are vulnerable against the pass, but the Vikings rank 25th in the league in passing. Their running game is even worse, ranking dead last in the NFL rushing. They won't have any choice but to pass, and that could result short possessions, taking little time off the clock and handing the ball right back to the mighty Cowboy's offense. As good as the Vikings defense is, the Vikes have given up 20+ points in five of their last six games. During that span they've only held one team under 100 rushing yards, and that was Detroit. They'll have their hands full tonight against the best offensive line in football, and I can't see them stopping Dallas from piling up the yards and scoring plenty of points. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in seven straight games, and not even the Baltimore Ravens #1 ranked defense was able to stop them. I am expecting a shootout in Minny.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Dallas Cowboys.

The Cowboys have won 10 in a row, but that streak can't last forever. Dallas will lose, it's just a matter of when. There will be plenty of situational handicappers picking Minnesota to record the upset here at home, but I just don't think the Vikes match up well versus Dallas. The Cowboys weakness is that they are vulnerable against the pass, but the Vikings rank 25th in the league in passing. Their running game is even worse, ranking dead last in the NFL rushing. They won't have any choice but to pass, and that could result short possessions, taking little time off the clock and handing the ball right back to the mighty Cowboy's offense. As good as the Vikings defense is, the Vikes have given up 20+ points in five of their last six games. During that span they've only held one team under 100 rushing yards, and that was Detroit. They'll have their hands full tonight against the best offensive line in football, and I can't see them stopping Dallas from piling up the yards and scoring plenty of points. The Cowboys have scored at least 27 points in seven straight games, and not even the Baltimore Ravens #1 ranked defense was able to stop them. I am expecting the Cowboys to win in a shootout in Minny.

Take Dallas.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Denver Broncos.

I am not going to mince words, I think the Chiefs are a FRAUD! They aren't anywhere near as good as their 7-3 record would indicate. They trailed by double digits in wins over San Diego and Carolina, but rallied to win those games. Falling behind here in Denver could prove to be fatal, as this defense doesn't often blow leads. The Broncos are coming off a bye week, and that extra time to rest an prepare for the Chiefs should give them a huge advantage. Derek Wolfe and Aqib Talib are back for the Broncos, while Tamba Hali, Marcus Peters, Dee Ford and Jeremy Maclin are all banged up for Kansas City. Alex Smith has not played well at all, and playing on the road against the Super Bowl champs isn't going to be easy for the struggling quarterback. The Broncos are 6-1-1 in their last eight home games, while the Chiefs are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games versus a team with a winning home record.

Take DEN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Oakland Raiders.

The Raiders are 8-2, and quarterback Derek Carr is making a case for NFL MVP. He threw for 295 yards, three TDs and just one INT in last week's win over the Texans in Mexico City. I expect Carr to put up big numbers here at home today against a Carolina defense that is reeling after losing Luke Keuchly. Carolina has really missed Josh Norman, and the Panthers come into this game at Oakland ranked 21st in the league versus the pass. They've lost three of four road games so far this season, and haven't covered the spread on the road in eight straight dating back to last season. The reigning MVP has really struggled all year, and last week against the Saints he completed just 42 percent of his passes for 192 yards and a TD. That's not likely going to be good enough to keep up with Carr and the Raiders high powered passing game.

Take OAK.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks.

Seattle has won three straight, and Russell Wilson has thrown for 902 yards with six TDs and no INTs during this winning streak. Wilson had been limited by a knee injury earlier this season, but since he regained his mobility, he's been a handful for opposing defenses. The Bucs have lost two of their last three home games, and they gave up at total of 73 points in those losses. Tampa's defense ranks 24th in the NFL allowing 26 points per game. I don't like the Bucs chances of stopping Seattle, and it's going to be tough for Tampa to score enough point to keep this game close. Jameis Winston hasn't seen a defense like Seattle's since he played at home versus Denver in the first week of October. He threw for 179 yards on 17-of-35 passing, with two picks and no TDs in a 27-7 loss in that game. He was even worse against Arizona, throwing four picks in a 40-7 loss in Week 2. Seattle has covered the spread in five straight games in November, and the Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last five at Tampa.

Take SEA.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on WAS@DAL to go OVER the total.

The Cowboys have now won nine straight, and they've been unstoppable on offense during that span. They rank 3rd in the league in scoring, averaging over 28 points per game. They've scored at least 27 points in six straight games, and that trend should continue here at home against the Redskins #22 ranked defense. They'll likely need to score plenty to beat the Redskins, who are one of the leagues highest scoring teams. Kirk Cousins ranks 3rd in the league in passing, and he should be primed to put up big numbers against an injury depleted Dallas secondary. Jordan Reed is a matchup nightmare, and the Washington TE caught five passes for 70 yards in a 27-23 home loss to Dallas earlier in the year. Cousins has been playing far better since that game, and he's got plenty of weapons with DeSean Jackson back and healthy, Jamison Crowder and Pierre Garcon. These two teams have gone over the total in three of the last four head to head meetings, and Washington has gone over in eight of it's last 10 overall.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins.

The Packers have lost three straight, allowing an average of 37 points per game during that span. Aaron Rodgers has been struggling, and he was picked off twice in an ugly loss at Tennessee last week. Without any real threat in the running game, opposing defenses have been able to put a ton of pressure on Rodgers. He was sacked five times in last week's loss to the Titans. Washington is 5-1-1 in it's last seven overall, and the Skins have won three straight at home during that span. Kirk Cousins is playing a lot like he did last year, ranking fourth in the NFL in passing, with 2,716 yards, 14 TDs and seven INTs. He's benefiting from strong play by the Skins O-Line, as well as an abundance of weapons to throw to. Last week against Minnesota, he was sacked just once while throwing for 262 yards and a pair of TDs on 22-of-33 passing. With Jordan Reed, Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and Vernon Davis, Cousins has an embarrassment of riches. It only gets better as DeSean Jackson is expected to return to the lineup to face Green Bay. The Packers have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games in November, while the Skins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall.

Take WAS.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Baltimore Ravens.

The Dallas Cowboys are the hottest team in the NFL, coming into this week's home game versus Baltimore as winners of eight in row. It's not easy to stay on top in the NFL, and that is especially true for a rookie quarterback like Dak Prescott. He might be feeling just a little more pressure this week, after Dallas legend Tony Romo gave an emotional speech, passing the torch to Prescott and calling him the undisputed team leader. He's facing a Baltimore defense that ranks #1 in the NFL in total defense and #1 overall versus the run. The Ravens are 5-4, but their average margin of defeat in the four games they lost is less than five points. If Baltimore can slow down Ezekiel Elliot, it's going to put a ton of pressure on Prescott, which may spell trouble for the Cowboys. Dallas is just 5-11-1 ATS in it's last 17 home games, and I think it's going to be difficult for the Cowboys to run up the score here against the league's best defense.

Take BAL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the San Diego Chargers.

The Miami Dolphins take a three game winning streak into this Sunday's game at San Diego, but all three wins came at home. Playing on the road on the other side of the country looks like a tough spot for the Fish, who are still looking for their first road win this season. Phillip Rivers is having another outstanding season, and he's thrown for 994 yards with nine TDs and just one INT at home this season. The Chargers are 3-1 at home, and the home team has won six straight in this series since 2008. The Dolphis have been successful in recent weeks, leaning on running back Jay Ajayi. He's facing a stout San Diego defense though, that ranks among the NFL's best run defenses, holding opponents to an average of 85 rushing yards per game. The Dolphins run defense has been one of the worst in the NFL, ranking 29th overall, allowing over 136 yards per game. That could mean another big game for Melvin Gordon, who ran for 196 yards and a TD in last week's win over Tennessee. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, while Miami has failed to cover in four of it's last five on the road.

Take SD.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.

The Saints are surging, coming into this week's home game versus Denver as winners of four of their last five. The Broncos on the other hand are coming off an ugly loss on the road at Oakland, and have lost three of their last five. Denver has really missed C.J. Anderson, who has been sidelined for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Backup running back Devontae Booker has been playing through a shoulder injury, and he's been limited to just 76 yards on 29 carries while starting the last two games. The Broncos are also dealing with injuries on defense, and they really struggled in the loss to Oakland, taking 12 penalties for a total of 104 yards. Drew Brees threw for 323 yards and three TDs on 28-of-39 passing in a win at San Francisco last week, and he ranks second in the NFL in passing yards. He has incredible numbers at home, completing almost 70 percent of his passes for 1,529 yards, 12 TDs and just two INTs. His last home game was a win over the Seattle Seahawks, throwing for 265 yards and a TD on 27-of-35 passing. I expect a similar result this week against another tough defense at the Super Dome.

Take N.O.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins.

After losing their first two games of the season, the Redskins have gone 4-1-1 in their last six overall. Kirk Cousins ranks among the league leaders in passing, and he threw for a whopping 458 yards in last week's 27-27 tie versus Cincinnati. Washington's biggest problem has been a poor run defense, which isn't likely to hurt them against Minnesota, a team that ranks 31st in the league in rushing. The Vikings offense is in shambles, averaging just 12 points per game during a three game losing streak. Minnesota's defense carried the team early this season, but injuries to several key players have hurt the Vikes. It looks like they will be without starting corners Marcus Sherels and Captain Munnerlyn. Washington might be without DeSean Jackson, but Cousins still has his fair share of weapons in Jordan Reed, Jamison Crowder, Pierre Garcon and Vernon Davis.

Take WAS.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DEN@OAK to go OVER the total.

The defending Super Bowl champs are tied with Oakland in the AFC West with both teams at 6-2 after eight games. The Raiders host Denver on Sunday night, and the total looks a little low considering how potent Oakland's offense has been. Derek Carr is having an MVP caliber season, throwing for 2,321 yards with 17 TDs and just three INTs so far. He threw for a whopping 513 yards and four TDs on 40-of-59 passing in a win over Tampa last week. Surely he will have a tougher time against Denver's defense, but I like his chances of putting enough points on the board to push this total over. While Oakland is a team that has a pass happy offense, the Broncos normally try to establish the run. They were a little more pass happy last week, with Trevor Siemian attempting 38 passes in comparison to just 25 running plays. Injuries in the secondary, and a depleted backfield for Denver should also contribute to a potential higher scoring game. The Raiders have been trending over at home, reaching the total in nine of their last 12 in Oakland.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.

Both the Saints and the 49ers have losing records, but these two teams have very different goals ahead of this Week 9 matchup. San Francisco needs to start looking ahead, with this season already a write off. The Saints are 3-4, but are still in second place in the NFC South. They've won three of their last four games, and their defense has tightened up in recent weeks. Drew Brees is having another MVP caliber season, completing almost 70 percent of his passes for a total of 2,366 yards, 18 TDs and five INTs. He'll face a San Francisco defense that ranks dead last in points allowed, giving up over 31 points per game. The Niners were lit up last week at home by Jameis Winston, who threw for 269 yards and three TDs in a 34-17 blowout win. Colin Kaepernick is completing less than 50% of his passes, throwing for just 330 yards the last two weeks. He's also been sacked seven times in those games. This game appears to have blowout written all over it.

Take N.O.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons.

The Bucs upset the Falcons in Atlanta in Week 1, but Atlanta has since won five of seven to take a two game lead in the NFC South. The Falcons have won three of four on the road, while the Bucs are 0-3 at home. Matt Ryan is having an MVP caliber season, leading the NFL with 2,636 yards, 19 TDs and just four INTs. He should be able to pick apart a Bucs defense that surrendered a whopping 626 yards in a home loss to Oakland last week. That game was decided in overtime, despite the fact that Oakland had a 626-270 edge in total yards. Tampa is banged up in the backfield, with starting RB Doug Martin and backup Jaquizz Rodgers both inactive for tonight's game. That puts even more pressure on Jameis Winston, who has been wildly inconsistent. He threw for just 180 yards, completing 50 percent of his passes in the loss to Oakland Sunday. That likely won't be good enough here against the Falcons.

Take ATL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots.

The Bills didn't just beat the Patriots this season, they shut them out, winning 16-0 at Foxboro. Bill Belichick will look to avenge that loss here in the rematch in Buffalo this week. Things should be different this time around, with Tom Brady back from suspension, and Rob Gronkowski coming in with 16 catches for 364 yards and a pair of TDs in his last three games. LeGarrette Blount ran for 127 yards and a pair of TDs in last week's win over Pittsburgh. He could have a big day here in Buffalo, facing a Bills defense that was run over in a loss to Miami last week. The Bills have allowed opponents to average over 125 rushing yards per game so far, ranking 27th in the NFL against the run. The Buffalo backfield is in rough shape heading into this Sunday's game, with LeSean McCoy and Mike Gillislee both battling injuries. McCoy left last week's game at Miami after just eight carries for 11 yards, and he did not practice during the week. The last time the Pats played at Buffalo they won 40-32, and they are 10-2 in their last 12 at Buffalo. I'll take Brady and Belichick here in this revenge spot.

Take NE.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on ARI@CAR to go UNDER the total.

The Cardinals offense led the league in total yards last season, but Arizona has struggled to score in 2016. Carson Palmer threw for 342 yards on 29-of-49 passing in a 6-6 tie versus Seattle last week. He's been picked off five times, and has thrown just two TD passes in his last four starts. He's facing a Panthers secondary that has really struggled since Josh Norman left for Washington. Carolina couldn't stop Drew Brees in a 41-38 loss at New Orleans two weeks ago. Brees lit them up for 465 yards and four TDs. I would expect this defense to be better here at home coming off a bye week, and they did hold the Bucs to just 17 points in their last home game. Arizona has played very well defensively this season, ranking 5th in the NFL allowing just over 15 points per game. These two teams have gone over the total in three of four meetings since 2011, but the total for this Sunday's game is higher than it was in any of those previous contests. The Cardinals have gone under in 11 of their last 15 overall, and four straight on the road.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals.

The Seahawks are coming into Arizona off three straight wins, and they really have their swagger back. I bet against them last week, and here is what I said prior to the game: "Seattle is coming off a couple of double digit wins against inferior opponents. In fact, when you look at the Seahawks schedule, you can see that they've faced possibly the four worst quarterbacks in the NFL." "Seattle's offense has plenty of question marks, with injuries in the backfield, and a running game that has underachieved. Russell Wilson was injured in the win over San Francisco, limiting his ability to run the ball. He's run for -2 yards on six attempts in his last two starts. Christine Michael has a rather pedestrian 290 yards and two TDs as the feature running back" While they got the win at home versus Atlanta, they failed to cover as a seven points favorite. In fact the Falcons appeared to be engineering a potential game winning driver, which ended with a controversial non-call that most felt should have been pass interference. The running game was lackluster once again, with a total of just 72 yards on 27 carries. Arizona's run defense looked pretty damn good in the win over the Jets, giving up just 33 yards on 14 attempts. David Johnson ran for 111 yards and three TDs, and Carson Palmer was accurate completing 23-of-34 passes for 213 yards and a TD. Seattle's defense could be a little shorthanded this week with both Kam Chancellor and Michael Bennett nursing injuries.

Take ARI.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings.

The bubble appears to have burst for the surprising Philadelphia Eagles. After winning three straight to start the season, Philly is coming off consecutive losses to Detroit and Washington. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz has struggled, throwing for just 179 yards and no TDs on 11-of-22 passing last week. He's been sacked eight times the last two weeks, and the offensive line is in rough shape since Lane Johnson started serving his suspension. The last thing you need when your offensive line is struggling to protect your rookie quarterback, is a meeting with the NFL's best defense, coming off a bye week. The Vikings have to be happy with their quarterback, as Sam Bradford has been spectacular since coming over via trade from Philly. He'll be looking forward to executing a bit of revenge on the franchise that decided to let him go. The Redskins gained 493 total yards against Philly's defense last week, and I expect a similar result here against Minny.

Take MIN. GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons.

There is plenty of hype surrounding both teams as the Falcons get set to face the Seahawks in Seattle this week. The question is, which of these two teams is for real? The answer might be both teams, but so far only Atlanta has really proved anything. Seattle is coming off a couple of double digit wins against inferior opponents. In fact, when you look at the Seahawks schedule, you can see that they've faced possibly the four worst quarterbacks in the NFL. 

This week they face the NFL's leading passer, and MVP front runner Matt Ryan. Matty Ice has thrown for 1,740 yards with 12 TDs and just two INTs this year. Perhaps more impressive, he's done it against teams like Denver and Carolina.

This game is quite reminiscent of last year's Week 6 matchup when Seattle was a 7-point favorite at home to Carolina, and eventual MVP Cam Newton. I had the Panthers in that one, and they trailed for most of the game, but managed to keep it close. They eventually came from behind to win on a last minute touchdown drive.

Seattle's offense has plenty of question marks, with injuries in the backfield, and a running game that has underachieved. Russell Wilson was injured in the win over San Francisco, limited his ability to run the ball. He's run for -2 yards on six attempts in his last two starts. Christine Michael has a rather pedestrian 290 yards and two TDs as the feature running back.

The Falcons defense held Denver to just 84 rushing yards without a rushing TD last week. I like Atlanta to keep this one close, if not winning outright at Seattle.

Take ATL.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Oakland Raiders.

The Chiefs are 0-2 on the road so far this season, and they will play at Oakland on Sunday. Quarterback Alex Smith completed just 57 percent of his passes, with 473 yards, two TDs and one pick in two road games. He's completed 73 percent of his passes for 600 yards and three TDs with one INT in two home games.

The Raiders are 4-1, and they rank 4th in the NFL in scoring, averaging over 28 points per game. Derek Carr is playing like an MVP candidate, throwing for 1,383 yards with 11 TDs and two INTs so far. Last week against the Chargers he threw for 317 yards and two TDs on 25-of-40 passing.

The skeptics will point out that Oakland's defense ranks 31st in the NFL against the pass. Perhaps we need to cut them some slack after facing the NFL's leading passer Matt Ryan, 6 x NFL passing leader Drew Brees, and Phillip Rivers who ranks 2nd in the NFL in passing yards.

Take OAK.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills.

Rex Ryan and the Bills have turned things around, coming into Sunday's home game against San Francisco as winner of three straight. All three of those wins were blowouts, decided by more than 10 points. I expect a similar result here against a San Francisco team that is a complete mess on both sides of the ball. Blaine Gabbert has been a total bust at quarterback for the Niners, and he threw for 161 yards on 18-of-31 passing in last week's loss to Arizona. He was sacked seven times, and threw a pair of interceptions with just one TD. Fans are calling for backup Colin Kaepernick to step up to replace him, and that in itself is a testament to how desperate the situation is.

Kaepernick started eight games for San Francisco last year, and six of those were losses. He really looked awful in the pre-season, and there is concern that he's dropped a ton of weight, and may be less durable as a dual-threat quarterback. Only the Miami Dolphins have allowed more rushing yards than San Francisco this season, and that's alarming heading into a game against a Buffalo team that ranks 3rd in the league in rushing. LeSean McCoy will be looking to make a point here against former coach Chip Kelly, and McCoy ran for 150 yards against the Rams last week.

Take BUF.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers.

The Giants are coming off a tough 24-10 loss at Minnesota on Monday night, and they head to Green Bay to face the Packers at Lambeau with just five days to rest and prepare. The Packers are coming off a bye week, and I think this sets up Aaron Rodgers and company for a big blowout home win in this spot.

Manning threw for 261 yards and an INT on 25-of-45 passing against the Vikings, and Odell Beckham Jr. caught just three passes for 33 yards. They struggled to run the ball with Shane Vereen and Rashad Jennings sidelined by injury, totaling just 78 yards on the ground. The chemistry between Manning and Beckham seems to be deteriorating, as evidenced by Manning's comments after the loss to Minnesota: "He kind of brought that on himself".

Aaron Rodgers threw for 205 yards and four TDs in a home win over the Lions two weeks ago, and he owns the NFL's highest home passer rating of all time (110.2). The Giants have failed to cover in seven straight road games against teams with a winning record, and that's a trend that I expect to continue here in Green Bay.

Take GB.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Oakland Raiders.

The Raiders are 3-1 and they've been pretty impressive offensively so far. I don't think they are getting enough respect, listed as just a small favorite at home to the Chargers. San Diego is reeling, coming into this week's game with a 3-1 record, and a long list of injury woes. Phillip Rivers continues to keep them in games, but with Woodhead, Johnson and Allen out, and Gates questionable, he's running out of targets to throw to. They are perhaps worse off on the defensive side of the ball, without Verrett, Te'o and possibly Joey Bosa as well. Derek Carr has thrown for over 1000 yards with nine TDs and just one INT so far, and he should have a field day against a struggling Chargers defense that is thin in the secondary. The Raiders won both meetings last season, by a combined margin of 11 points. I expect the Chargers to struggle here on the road with so many key players sidelined by injury.

Take OAK.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers came out flat in a 34-3 loss at Philly two weeks ago, but they came back and throttled Kansas City 43-14 last Sunday. They host the struggling New York Jets this week, and I really see no reason why this won't be another blowout. The Jets are coming off back-to-back double digit losses, and Ryan Fitzpatrick was picked off NINE TIMES in those games. It's almost impossible to conceive that Fitzpatrick could match serves with Big Ben, but an injury to Jets top wideout Eric Decker makes that even more unlikely. There is more good news for the Steelers, as it looks like Darrelle Revis will miss the game with a hamstring injury. The Steelers have covered the spread in four of their last five home games, and the home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

Take PIT.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings.

The Houston Texans are 3-1, and sitting in first place in the lowly AFC South. Their wins have all come at home though, and against some of the worst teams in the NFL. Chicago, Tennessee and Kansas City have just four wins between them. Houston has played just one road game, and they got their asses handed to them in a 27-0 loss to the Patriots at Foxboro. Brock Osweiler threw for 196 yards and an INT on 24-of-41 passing in that game, and he's thrown more interceptions (6) than he has touchdowns (5) overall this season.

It won't get any easier on the road at Minnesota, facing a Vikings defense that ranks 2nd overall allowing just over 12 points per game so far. Perhaps the most impressive thing about the Vikings 4-0 start, is that they've beaten 2014 MVP Aaron Rodgers, 2015 MVP Cam Newton, and two time Super Bowl winner Eli Manning.  That doesn't bode well for a below average, mistake prone QB like Osweiler. Lamar Miller is unlikely to be the answer, he's averaging 3.8 yards per carry, and has yet to score a touchdown.

Take MIN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2-team (7.5 point) tease W/49ers+Under.

San Francisco is coming off a home loss to Dallas on Sunday, and they only managed to accumulate 295 total yards in that game. Blaine Gabbert is putting up pedestrian numbers at quarterback, with as many picks (4) as touchdowns in the first four weeks. Even in a Week 1 win over the Rams, he threw for just 170 yards and a TD. The good news is that the defense has looked pretty solid, and they should be able to hang in there against a struggling Cardinals offense with backup quarterback Drew Stanton getting the start. Stanton was picked off twice, completing just 4-of-11 attempts for 37 yards after replacing the injured Carson Palmer in last week's loss to the Rams. He started eight games for the Cardinals two seasons ago, and won five of those starts. The Cardinals failed to score 20 points in six of those eight games though, and seven of those contests failed to reach the total. Three of the last four meetings in this series have failed to reach the total, and only one of those four games was decided by a double digit margin.

Take SF+UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings.

The Giants haven't impressed much while winning two of three games this season. One of those wins came at home versus New Orleans, and they didn't even score an offensive touchdown in that game. Eli Manning threw for 350 yards on 25-of-38 passing in a home loss to Washington last week, with just one TD an two INTs. It won't get any easier in Minnesota, facing a Vikings defense that leads the league in sacks as well as interceptions. Eli was sacked four times and threw three picks in a 49-17 loss at Minnesota last year. Without much of a threat in the running game, the Giants are going to have trouble protecting Eli from the fierce Minnesota pass rush. Sam Bradford has been quite solid for the Vikes, throwing for 457 yards and three TDs without an INT in two starts. While the offense wasn't that impressive last week, I expect Bradford to have a big game here at home against a Giants defense that was lit up by Kirk Cousins last Sunday. The Giants also took 11 penalties for 128 yards in that game. The Vikings are a more disciplined team, better coached, with a superior defense and a more dependable quarterback. I'll take the home favorite.

Take MIN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Steelers laid an egg in Philly last week, but I don't think it's any time for Pittsburgh fans to start panicking. They host the 2-1 Chiefs, who have been quite lucky so far. Last week they had the game handed to them courtesy of Ryan Fitzpatrick, who looked like he was throwing the ball to the wrong team. Fitzpatrick was picked off six times, and one of those was returned for a TD. They scored another TD on a fumble return. The Chiefs didn't look great on the road in Week 2, losing 19-12 to the Texans. Alex Smith threw for just 186 yards with no TDs on 20-of-37 passing in that game. Home field has been crucial in this series, as the home team has won each of the last three meetings, and has covered the spread in six of the last seven meetings. The Steelers offense gets Le'Veon Bell back this week, and I don't see Kansas City slowing down Big Ben and Antonio Brown in Steel Town.

Take PIT.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on DAL@SF to go UNDER the total.

The 49ers defense pitched a shutout in a home win over the Rams in Week 1, but they were blown out on the road in each of their next two games. I expect a better showing from San Francisco here at home versus Dallas, and with both teams likely to lean on the run, it could be a low scoring battle. Ezekiel Elliot ran for 140 yards on 30 carries in a win over the Bears last week. Carlos Hyde had a big game for San Francisco, running for 103 yards and two TDs on 21 carries in the loss to Seattle. San Francisco's passing game has been futile, with Blaine Gabbert who threw for just 119 yards last week. The Cowboys will be without their top wide receiver as Dez Bryant is sidelined by an injury. San Francisco has gone under in seven straight home games versus teams above .500. The Cowboys have gone under in six of their last seven games played on grass.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins.

Washington has under achieved this season, losing to the Steelers and the Cowboys in their first two games. The Redskins got back on track last week with a 29-27 win in New York. They host the Browns this week, and Cleveland is reeling with a host of injuries. They are down to their third string quarterback, rookie Cody Kessler out of USC. The 23 year old threw for 244 yards with no TDs and no INTs on 21-of-33 passing in a loss to Miami last week. He could struggle against a Redskins secondary that picked off Eli Manning twice last week. Kirk Cousins ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards, and he's coming off a big game against the Giants. The former Michigan State Spartan threw for 296 yards and a pair of TDs last Sunday. He could have a huge day against a Cleveland team that ranks 24th in the NFL in total defense. The Browns kept it close in losses to Miami and Baltimore, but they were aided by turnovers. The Skins have a far better offense than either the Ravens or the Fish. Washington should win by double digits.

Take WAS.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on OAK@BAL to go UNDER the total.

The Raiders defense couldn't stop anybody in the first two weeks, but they are coming off a solid 17-10 road win at Tennessee. They limited Marcus Mariota to 214 yards with no TDs and two INTs on 17-of-33 passing. They will try to do it again on the road at Baltimore, and the Ravens offense hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. Baltimore ranks 24th in the NFL, averaging just 19 points per game. Last week Joe Flacco really struggled, throwing for 214 yards on 21-of-40 passing, with no TDs and a pair of INTs.The Ravens though have won three straight to start the season, behind the league's 4th ranked defense. The Ravens have failed to reach the total in five of their last six home games, and six of their last seven on field turf. Derek Carr had a career best 351 passing yards against this Baltimore secondary last year, but I don't like his chances of a repeat performance here on the road Sunday.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Detroit Lions.

The Lions are 1-2 heading into Sunday's game at Chicago, but they probably deserve better. They lost by a single point, blowing a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against Tennessee, and the Packers 34-27 win over the Lions last week was aided by a phantom 66 yard pass interference penalty. The Bears on the other hand have absolutely nothing to be positive about, after getting lit up by rookie quarterback in three straight losses. Both these teams are banged up in the backfield, with Chicago turning to third string running back Jordan Howard, while the Lions might still be in good shape with Theo Riddick carrying the load in the absence of Ameer Abdullah. There's no doubt that the Lions have a huge advantage at quarterback, with Matthew Stafford coming in ranked fifth in the NFL in passing yards, and his seven TD passes are just one shy of the NFL lead. The Lions have won six straight in this series dating back to 2012, and I don't see the Bears breaking that streak here this week.

Take DET.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on IND@JAX to go UNDER the total.

The Colts defense got the job done at home versus San Diego last week, holding the Chargers to just one offensive touchdown. Andrew Luck threw for 331 yards with one TD and an INT in the 26-22 victory. Indianapolis will face the winless Jaguars in London, and this looks like a tough spot for a banged up Andrew Luck. The Jags defense was great last week, limiting Joe Flacco to 214 yards on 21-of-40 passing, with no TDs and a pair of INTs. They also did a good job defending the run, holding the Ravens to 84 yards and a TD on 22 carries. Blake Bortles made a ton of mistakes though, and that cost Jacksonville in a 19-17 loss. Bortles had one of his best games last season in a win over the Colts, throwing for 250 yards and three TDs. That game went over the total, but these teams have failed to reach the total in eight of the last 10 head to head meetings. The total here looks a little high, given both team's struggles on offense.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints.

The Saints are still looking for their first win of the season, and they should have a good shot of getting it tonight at home versus Atlanta. They beat Atlanta twice last year, and the Falcons have failed to cover in four of their last five at the Superdome. New Orleans defense was the worst in the NFL last year, and it didn't look much better in a home loss to Oakland in Week 1. They put in an impressive showing on the road in New York last week, holding the Giants offense to just three field goals. They also had a couple of goal line stands that kept the New York out of the endzone. Drew Brees has looked sharp early in the season, and in a game that could turn into a shootout, I like his chances against the mistake prone Matt Ryan. The Saints sacked Ryan five times in last year's 31-21 home win over Atlanta. The Falcons defense hasn't impressed, and I don't like their chances of slowing down Drew Brees in the dome on Monday night.

Take Saints.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CHI@DAL to go UNDER the total.

The Cowboys are a big favorite at home to the Bears on Sunday night, but I am still not convinced that rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot are going to live up to all the hype. The Cowboys are 1-1, and everyone is singing the praises of their new rookie quarterback. As solid as he's looked, he's yet to throw a TD pass. The good news is that he hasn't made many mistakes. If the Cowboys want to keep it that way, they will have to continue protecting him with a conservative game plan on offense. They don't need to come out passing, and settling for field goals is likely to be plenty good enough against these Bears. Chicago's offense is in rough shape, with Brian Hoyer stepping in at quarterback to replace Jay Cutler. Hoyer is a capable backup, but this is a tough situation, playing behind an offensive line that can't stop the pass rush. Chicago has not seen the total go over 45 points in seven straight games dating back to last December. The Cowboys have gone under in four of their last five versus an opponent with a losing record, and I expect to see a low scoring game here tonight.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Tennessee Titans.

It's been an impressive start to the season for the Titans, who probably should be 2-0. In Week 1 they took a 10-0 lead to the locker room at halftime at home versus the Vikings, but Minnesota scored a pair of defensive touchdowns in thew second half to come back and win. Last week they held the Detroit Lions to just 15 points, and rallied for a 16-15 home win.

Tennessee will host the Raiders this Sunday, and Oakland is coming off a disappointing home loss to Atlanta. The Oakland defense ranks dead last in the NFL versus the pass after giving up a total of 69 points in the first two weeks.

The Titans have to be pleased with the play of DeMarco Murray, who has averaged 5.2 yards per carry so far. He's also been a threat in the passing game, with a dozen receptions for 91 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

These two teams are trending in different directions, as the Titans are developing a winning culture, while the Raiders are second guessing themselves. The Titans come in full of confidence, while Oakland is desperately trying to sort out it's defense.

Take TEN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans.

After upsetting Arizona on the road in Week 1 without several starters on both sides of the ball, the Patriots seem invincible. There seems to be a feeling that Bill Belichick can get it done no matter who starts at quarterback. History tells us that isn't the case, and I think there's a big difference between 2nd string quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, and third stringer Jacoby Brissett. We saw Miami score 21 unanswered points in the second half of last week's game, and New England just barely held on. The Texans come in with the #3 ranked scoring defense, and a quarterback that beat New England last year. This Houston defense has the potential to make life miserable for an inexperienced quarterback, and I expect Brissett to struggle here. I think Belichick's luck is about to run out.

Take HOU.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on PHI@CHI to go OVER the total.

Jay Cutler had the Bears up 14-10 at halftime in Houston in Week 1, but Chicago was shutout in the second half and went on to lose 23-14 to the Texans. The offensive line couldn't keep Houston's pass rushers off of Cutler, and he was sacked five times. Chicago's offense should have a more favorable matchup here at home against Philly. The Eagles are really thin in the secondary, and making matters worse, Leodis McKelvin will be out with a hamstring injury. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz had his way with the Browns in Week 1, throwing for 278 yards and a pair of TDs. Wentz has plenty of weapons at his disposal, but he might not be quite as successful here on the road against a solid Bears defense. The Bears have seen the total go over in nine of their last 13 games in the month of September, and the over is 4-1 in their last four games versus the Eagles.

Take OVER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

10*

10* analysis before game time

10*

This is a 5* play NYJ@BUF to go UNDER the total.

The Bills offense was putrid in Week 1, gaining just 160 total yards in a 13-7 loss to the Ravens. It doesn't figure to get any easier here at home versus the Jets just four days later. Their top receiver Sammy Watkins is banged up, still bothered by a foot injury that troubled him last year. The Jets defense didn't look too bad in a loss to Cincinnati on Sunday, holding the Bengals to a total of 57 yards on the ground, and sacking Andy Dalton seven times. Ryan Fitzpatrick had an average performance, throwing for 189 yards with two TDs and an INT on 19-of-35 passing. Fitzpatrick has a history of struggling against Rex Ryan's defense. Last year he was picked off three times while throwing for 181 yards on 16-of-37 passing in a 22-17 at Buffalo in last year's season finale. The Jets lost at home to the Bills earlier in the season, by the exact same score. These two teams have failed to reach the total in three straight meetings, and the under is 4-1 in the Jets last five trips to Buffalo.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on LA@SF to go UNDER the total.

The Niners host the Rams on Monday Night Football, and these two teams have a lot in common. They both finished with a losing record, missing the playoffs last year. They both have below average quarterbacks, and both teams like to focus on running the football. They've gone under in each of the last three head to head meetings, and the under is 4-1 in the Rams last five visits to San Francisco. The Niners have scored an average of less than 12 points in those three games, while the Rams were held to an average of just over 18 points per game. Case Keenum won three of his four starts at the end of last season, but he didn't put up eye popping numbers, with four TDs and one INT in those games. Three of those four games went under the total.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* GOY play on Arizona.

Notes - The Brady suspension is clearly the biggest factor, as he's dropped all appeals and will NOT play. Jimmy Garoppolo has not shown any sign of being able to step up and fill those big boots.

Carson Palmer threw for 4,671 yards last year, just 99 fewer than Tom Brady. His 35 TDs were only one shy of Brady's 36.

Arizona should have a superior defense, and they have perhaps the fastest wide receivers in the league.

The Cardinals led the league in total offense last year, and it shoud be a tough ask for Garoppolo to match serves with Palmer.

The Patriots are extremely shorthanded here without: QB Tom Brady RB Dion Lewis TE Rob Gronkowski LT Nate Solder RT Sebastian Vollmer G Jonathan Cooper DE Rob Ninkovich.

Take ARI.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the New York Giants.

Cowboys fans remain optimistic despite the injury to Tony Romo, but if history is any indication, Dallas is in big trouble. Rookie quarterback Dak Prescott played well in the pre-season, but it would be naive to think it's going to be that easy once the bullets start flying for real. The pressure is on another rookie, RB Ezekiel Elliot to carry the load on offense. Everything we've seen from Elliot would suggest he will be successful in the NFL, especially running behind that stout O-line in Dallas. You never really know until a guy proves it as a pro, as evidenced by the disappointing careers of guys like Trent Richardson and Darren McFadden. Dallas lost the last meeting at New York by a score of 27-20, and they beat the Giants by just one point in last year's home opener. The Giants have covered the spread in three straight in this series, and they are 5-2 in their last seven trips to Dallas. The Cowboys have no business being favored in this game.

Take NYG.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Minnesota Vikings.

 Vikings fans started panicking when Teddy Bridgewater went down with a season ending injury, but I still think this team has all the tools in place to make the playoffs. Keep in mind, last year Bridgewater ranked 22nd in the league in passing yards, and he threw for just 14 TDs and nine picks. In 2012, they made the playoffs and won 10 games with Christian Ponder as their starter. They have the league's leading rusher from a year ago, and a Top 5 defense. They really don't need more than a game manager, and they should do just fine this season, especially against weaker teams. Tennessee appears to have made major improvement, but I think the Titans are likely still a few year away from reaching their full potential. Marcus Mariota is great quarterback, but he isn't surrounded by a lot of talented receivers. Tennessee had a below average defense against the run last season, allowing opponents to average 113 yards per game. They were even worse against the pass. Expect the Vikings to pound away with the run, which will eventually set them up for a couple of big plays in the passing game. They should edge out an inferior Titans team in Week 1.

Take MINNY.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.

The Panthers were a slight favorite in last year's Super Bowl, and they lost 24-10 to the Broncos at Levis Stadium. Cam Newton threw for 265 yards and an INT on 18-of-41 passing, taking six sacks and fumbling the ball twice. He's facing that same Denver defense here in his first game of the 2016 season, and I don't see any reason why he'll be more successful on the road at Mile High Stadium.

The Broncos proved last season that they could win games in spite of poor quarterback play, and surely they won't be asking Trevor Siemian to do too much. C.J. Anderson had some success running on the Panthers defense, picking up 90 yards and a TD on just 23 carries in Super Bowl 50. 

The Panthers have failed to cover in four straight road games, and they've failed to cover in Week 1 in five of the last seven seasons. Denver won five games last year with Brock Osweiler at quarterback, and with the league's #1 scoring defense, I'll take the Broncos as a home dog to almost anybody.

Take DEN.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the UNDER in Super Bowl 50.

They say that defense wins championships, and that might be good news for Broncos fans. On the other hand, the Panthers defense is pretty impressive in it's own right. The Broncos own the leagues' top ranked defense, allowing just 18.5 points per game. Carolina isn't far off, allowing just 19.3 points per game. The Super Bowl will be played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, home of the San Francisco 49ers. 

The 49ers played eight games at Levi's Stadium this year, and not a single one of those saw more than 45 points scored. In fact all but one of their home games saw less than 40 points scored. The Broncos completely shut down New England's high octane offense in the AFC Championship game, picking off Tom Brady twice in a 20-28 victory. A week earlier they held the Steelers in check in a 23-16 victory. Denver has failed to reach the total in five of it's last six playoff games. Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos.

They say that defense wins championships, and that might be good news for Broncos fans. On the other hand, the Panthers defense is pretty impressive in it's own right. The Broncos own the leagues' top ranked defense, allowing just 18.5 points per game. Carolina isn't far off, allowing just 19.3 points per game. The Super Bowl will be played at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, home of the San Francisco 49ers. 

The 49ers played eight games at Levi's Stadium this year, and not a single one of those saw more than 45 points scored. In fact all but one of their home games saw less than 40 points scored. The Broncos completely shut down New England's high octane offense in the AFC Championship game, picking off Tom Brady twice in a 20-28 victory. A week earlier they held the Steelers in check in a 23-16 victory. 

The Panthers come in as the favorite, but I think this game has the potential to be a lot closer than most people think. ESPN says that 53 of 70 staffers are picking Carolina, and eight of 10 Sports Illustrated writers have picked the Panthers. One of the common themes among the pundits is that Carolina has a huge advantage in quarterback play with MVP Cam Newton facing a 39 year old Peyton Manning. 

When you look at the "tale of the tape", Newton's statistics are impressive, and Manning's are downright ugly. We've seen a different Peyton Manning in these playoffs though, and it looked like vintage "Sheriff" on the opening drive against the Patriots. Most importantly, he's done a good job protecting the football, with no INTs in Denver's two playoff wins. This isn't his first rodeo, he's been to the Super Bowl three times previously, winning with Indianapolis in 2006. 

Denver doesn't need Manning to be great, and the Broncos will likely have a conservative approach, hoping their defense will keep them in the game. The Panthers have looked vulnerable when trying to protect a lead. They've blown big leads against the Seahawks, Colts and Giants. 

I'm giving the Broncos a "puncher's chance" here in Super Bowl 50, and I'll take the points. 

Take DEN. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on ARI@CAR to go UNDER the total. 

The Panthers opened up a 31-0 lead on Seattle in their win over the Seahawks in the divisional round. While you have to give them credit, it's also fair to point out that they were fortunate that the Seahawks were slipping all over the field, and Russel Wilson threw an interception returned for a touchdown on the opening drive. The Seahawks have already been in touch with the Cardinals, giving them a heads up regarding the proper equipment for such field conditions. I wouldn't expect Arizona to come in and make the same mistakes Seattle did last week. 

As good as the Panthers were in the first half last week, they were held scoreless in the second half. The Cardinals defense held Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to just 13 points, until Rodgers hit another miracle Hail Mary with no time on the clock, forcing overtime. Arizona's defense has been solid all year, and the Cardinals have allowed an average of just 11 points in their last three road games. 

The Cardinals have failed to reach the total in six of their last seven overall. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots. 

I bet on Denver in last week's divisional playoff game against Pittsburgh, and I wasn't overly impressed with the Broncos. I don't think it would be fair to put all the blame on Peyton Manning, as his receivers didn't do him any favors, with several big drops on passes that should have been caught. Their normally stout defense had plenty of trouble stopping Ben Roethlisberger, despite the absence of Antonio Brown and a couple of third and fourth string running backs in the back field. 

Tom Brady threw for 280 yards and three TDs at Denver during the regular season, and that was without Julian Edelman, and Rob Gronkowski who left with an injury. Edelman returned last week, and made an immediate impact with 100 receiving yards on 10 catches. Gronkowski scored a pair of TDs, catching seven passes for 83 yards.

New England should prove to have too many weapons for a Denver team that hasn't had much going offensively in recent weeks. 

Take NE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos. 

Pittsburgh only qualified for the playoffs because the New York Jets failed to win their final game of the season on the road against a Buffalo team that was already eliminated. The Steelers only won last week's game at Cincinnati after a controversial penalty put them in field goal range, but they lost Antonio Brown on that play. They come into Denver without their leading receiver, and a banged up Ben Roethlisberger. In addition, they will have to rely on fourth and fifth string running backs Jordan Todman and Fitzgerald Tousaint. 

Roethlisberger is dealing with a sprained AC joint, and torn ligaments in his throwing shoulder. He's going to try to play, but there's a very good chance that Landry Jones will be forced into action at some point. Jones threw for 209 yards with a TD and two INTs on 16-of-29 passing in his only full game, a 23-13 loss to the Chiefs. Even if Roethlisberger is healthy enough to play the whole game, he's facing the league's best defense on the road. He hasn't exactly thrived on the road this season, throwing just five TDs and nine interceptions while losing three of six. 

Peyton Manning is back under center for the Broncos, but he's likely not going to be asked to do too much here. He came in and threw for 69 yards on 5-of-9 passing in the win over San Diego in the final game of the regular season. It was Ronnie Hillman and C.J. Anderson that carried the load, combining for 212 yards and a pair of TDs.  

The Broncos defense had a league leading 52 quarterback sacks this year, and I expect them to completely shut down the Steelers passing game here on Sunday. 

Take Denver. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on SEA@CAR to go UNDER the total. 

The Seahawks defense dominated in Minnesota last week, holding Adrian Peterson to just 45 yards on 23 carries. Teddy Bridgewater threw for just 146 yards on 17-of-24 passing, and the Vikings points were limited to three field goals. Offensively their performance wasn't as spectacular, with Russell Wilson throwing for just 142 yards with a TD and an INT on 13-of-26 passing. 

The Panthers defense has been pretty impressive in it's own right, especially against the run. Carolina has allowed opponents to average just 88.4 rushing yards per game, ranking 4th in the NFL. The last time these teams met, Marshawn Lynch was held in check, rushing for just 54 yards and a TD on 17 carries. Seattle appeared to be in complete control of that game, leading by a score of 23-14 with five minutes to play in the fourth quarter. 

The Panthers rallied to score two TDs in less than four minutes, and Cam Newton threw the game winning TD pass with 32 seconds left on the clock. Since then this Seattle defense has been far better, and according to Michael Bennett it may be addition by subtraction. "Losing Cary Williams and adding J. Lane and D. Shead in the game has really turned our season around a lot," said Bennett. 

Seattle has won three straight at Carolina, and all three of those games saw less than 30 points scored.

Take UNDER.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the New England Patriots. 

I'm not going to give Kansas City too much credit for their win over the Texans last week. Brian Hoyer deserves most of the credit for the result of that game, throwing four picks, and fumbling the ball twice. The bad news for Kansas City is, this week they will be facing Tom Brady and the Patriots, which will be their toughest challenge since losing to the Bengals in Week 4. 

The Kansas City Chiefs came into the playoffs riding a 10 game winning streak, but I'm not buying into all the hype. When you look at who they played during that span, you will see that only two of those wins came against teams that made the playoffs. Both those teams (Denver and Pittsburgh) had their backup quarterback under center in those games.

The Patriots were 7-1 at home this year, and their only loss came against Philly, in a meaningless game with half of their offense sidelined by injury. They get Julian Edelman back this week, and they averaged 33.6 points with him healthy, and just 23.1 in the games he missed. 

Kansas City's offense could be in big trouble without their only productive receiver. Jeremy Maclin was carted off last week with an ankle injury, and is not expected to play today. Even with Maclin, Alex Smith has failed to throw for 200 yards in each of his last six starts. 

The Patriots have won five straight home games against the Chiefs, and four of the last five meetings between these two teams have failed to reach the total. I like the Pats to grind out a win here in a low scoring game at Foxboro in bad weather. 

Take NE. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Washington Redskins. 

If I had of told you two months ago that the Washington Redskins would be hosting the Packers in the playoffs, you would have thought I was crazy. If I told you I was actually betting on Washington, you would have thought I had completely lost my marbles. The reality we live in now though, is that beyond the star power of Aaron Rodgers, and the nostalgia of the Packers previous playoff success, they simply don't look like a good football team. 

Last week they played at home against a pretty average Vikings team, with the NFC North up for grabs. Teddy Bridgewater threw for just 99 yards, and Adrian Peterson ran for 67, and still the Vikings managed to win at Lambeau. Aaron Rodgers was sacked five times, throwing for 291 yards with one touchdown and an INT. Eddie Lacy ran for just 34 yards on 13 carries, and he's been held to just 117 yards without a TD over his last three starts. 

Washington's offense is firing on all cylinders, coming into the playoffs riding a four game winning streak. Kirk Cousins has thrown a dozen touchdown passes and just a single interception during that span. He's put up some incredible numbers at Fedex Field, throwing for 16 TDs and two INTs while winning six of eight starts. 

Take WASH. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Seattle Seahawks. 

Seattle enters the playoffs as one of the NFL's hottest teams, winning six of their last seven games. None of those games were close, as the Legion of Boom imposed their will on opposing teams. The Seahawks rank 2nd in total defense, 1st in scoring defense, and they have allowed the fewest rushing yards (81.5 per game). 

These teams met in the first week of December, and the Seahawks steamrolled the Vikings in Minnesota by a score of 38-7. Now the Vikings were missing a few key players on defense in that game, and they might be in a better position to compete with Seattle here on Sunday. That being said, Adrian Peterson wasn't able to get anything going against the Seahawks defense, running for just 18 yards on eight carries. 

Teddy Bridgewater threw for just 118 yards and an INT on 17-of-28 passing in the previous meeting, and he was sacked four times. He was equally ineffective in last week's win over Green Bay, throwing for 99 yards and an INT on 10-of-19 passing. Peterson ran for a rather pedestrian 67 yards on 19 carries, but scored a touchdown. He's been bothered by a sore back, and has been limited to an average of 64 yards per game over the last five games of the season. 

Russell Wilson comes into the playoffs looking like an MVP candidate, he's thrown for 24 TDs and just one INT over his last seven starts. I wouldn't go as far as to suggest that Seattle is a better team without Marshawn Lynch, but we can't ignore the fact that they were 3-4 in games Lynch played, and 7-2 in games that he missed. 

Take SEA. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Houston Texans. 

The Kansas City Chiefs come into the playoffs riding a 10 game winning streak, but I'm not buying into all the hype. When you look at who they played during that span, you will see that only two of those wins came against teams that made the playoffs. Both those teams (Denver and Pittsburgh) had their backup quarterback under center in those games. 

They will face a Houston team that really turned it on at the end of the year, winning seven of their last nine. They won four of five at home during that run, and their defense was lights out. They sacked opposing quarterbacks 23 times in those five games. 

Kansas City actually looked pretty average against some of the league's worst teams down the stretch. Three of their last four wins came by seven points or less, and that was against the likes of Cleveland, Oakland and San Diego. Alex Smith was pretty pedestrian, throwing five touchdown passes and four interceptions in those games. He's in a tough spot here on the road facing J.J. Watt and the Texans defense. 

Take HOU. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Green Bay Packers. 

The Packers are coming off an ugly loss to Arizona, while the Vikings absolutely crushed the Giants at home last week. If you judge these teams on their performance last week, it would be hard to make a case for Green Bay here in tonight's game. I'm going to give the Packers the benefit of the doubt, and I can't pass on Green Bay as such a small favorite at home in a must win game. 

I also think the Vikings are one of the more overrated teams in the league. Eight of their 10 wins this season have come against teams that currently have a losing record, and one of their two wins versus teams above .500 came against Kansas City when the Chiefs were just 1-5. The only team they beat that had a winning record when they played them was Atlanta. 

History certainly favors the Packers, who are 5-0-1 against Minnesota since 2012. Their last home game against the Vikings was a 42-10 blowout win. When these two teams played in Minnesota six weeks ago, Green Bay was coming off three straight losses. They shut down Adrian Peterson, limiting him to 45 yards and a TD on 13 carries, winning 30-13. Peterson is banged up with ankle/shoulder injuries, and might be hard pressed to do any better tonight. 

Take GB. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

10* analysis before game time

This is a 10* play on the #NYG. 

The Philadelphia Eagles have a long way to go, as they will try to repair the damage that Chip Kelly did during his tenure as the head coach of the franchise. They will finish the season on the road at New York, with offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur filling in as interim bench boss. The Giants are also rumored to be looking at moving in a different direction, and this could be Tom Coughlin's last game as head coach in New York. 

There are plenty of reasons to expect the Giants to be more motivated here. You have the fact that it could be the potential Swan Song for a coach that led them to two Super Bowl wins. Odell Beckham Jr. will surely be motivated to have a big game after serving a suspension last week for his performance in the loss to the Panthers. I expect the Giants to come out all fired up, playing with the same intensity you would expect from a playoff contender. 

The Eagles look like a team that checked out several weeks ago. They've been brutal on defense, becoming on the second team since 1950 to allow 400+ yards six weeks in a row. Eli Manning has played well at home, throwing for 2,085 yards with 15 TDs and just three INTs. I expect him to light up the Eagles defense here today. 

Take NYG. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Denver Broncos. 

The Broncos host the Bengals in a Monday Night Football matchup with massive playoff implications. Both teams will start backup quarterbacks, but I think it's pretty clear that this favors the home team with a superior defense, and more experience with Brock Osweiler starting for the sixth time this season. Last week he threw for 298 yards with three TDs and an INT, but the Broncos allowed the Steelers to come from behind and win, despite leading 27-13 at halftime. 

We can't blame Osweiler for the Broncos surrendering 21 unanswered points, and it's unlikely that A.J. McCarron will be able to duplicate what Ben Roethlisberger did in that game. McCarron threw for 162 yards and a TD on 15-of-21 passing in a win over the 49ers last week. He threw a pair of interceptions in a home loss to the Steelers a week earlier, and he's facing one of the NFL's toughest defenses, as Denver ranks second in sacks with 47. 

The Bengals receiving corps is banged up, with A.J. Green battling a back injury and Tyler Eifert sidelined with a concussion. The under is 5-1-1 in Broncos last seven home games, and Denver is 12-4 ATS in it's last 16 games in December.

Take DEN. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Kansas City Chiefs. 

The Cleveland Browns are coming off a 30-13 blowout loss at Seattle, and they've dropped eight of their last nine overall. Their only win during that span came at home to the lowly San Francisco 49ers. They face the hottest team in the league this Sunday, traveling to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs, who have won eight straight. This is a must win game for the Chiefs, who are still in the hunt for a playoff spot. 

Just when you thought things couldn't get any worse for the Browns, they had a pair of players arrested with drugs and guns in a holiday traffic stop. One of those players was starting lineman Armonty Bryant, who was second on the team with 5.5 sacks. What's more worrying though for the Browns, is that this is unlikely to be an isolated incident. We already know that Johnny Manziel has issues with alcoholism and substance abuse, and there's probably a number of other players in the locker room with some very bad habits. 

The Chiefs are ranked second in the NFL with a +15 turnover ratio, and their defense ranks third in the NFL allowing an average of just 18.4 points per game. I don't see the Browns posing much of a threat here, and this game should be a blowout. 

Take KC. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. 

The Detroit Lions started the season by losing seven of their first eight games. Then they salvaged a little bit of respect with a three game winning streak, but the party was over when they lost a heart-breaker on a last second Hail Mary game winner at home versus the Packers. Last week they lost 21-14 at St. Louis, and Mathew Stafford was sacked four times, throwing for 245 yards, two TDs and an INT. 

The Saints on the other hand are coming off an impressive road win at Tampa, and their defense limited Jameis Winston to 182 yards and a TD on 18-of-32 passing. The week before that they gave the undefeated Carolina Panthers a real run for their money at home, but Carolina came from behind to win on a late TD. 

Drew Brees has thrown 25 TD passes this year, and 17 of those have come at the Superdome. The Lions have lost three straight at New Orleans since 2009, and each of those losses came by a double-digit margin. 

The Saints have always been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde home team, and they've covered the spread in four of their last five at the Superdome. The Lions are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. 

Take N.O. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the St. Louis Rams. 

The Rams quarterback situation is a mess, there's no doubt about that. Nick Foles has been so bad, that they've turned to Case Keenum in recent weeks. The backup signal caller hasn't impressed either, throwing for just 260 yards with a TD and an INT on 26-of-48 passing while losing two of his three starts. Their recipe for success this week will be to ask very little of their quarterback, will leaning on their running game. They will also try to terrorize rookie Jameis Winston, the way they terrorized Matt Stafford last week. 

The held the Lions to 220 passing yards, sacking Stafford four times and forcing an INT. St. Louis ranks 6th in the NFL with 38 sacks on the season, and if they can put the pressure on Winston, he's going to make mistakes. He's had issues protecting the football that go back to his college days at Florida State, where last year he threw 18 picks in 14 games last year. 

Todd Gurley ran for 140 yards and two TDs on just 16 carries last week, and I expect him to have another big day against a banged up Bucs defense. They have really missed Kwon Alexander who is suspended for the remainder of the season for violating the league's drug policy. On offense they will not have WR Vincent Jackson, who suffered a season ending knee injury last week. 

This will be the final home game for the Rams this season, and could be their last game in St. Louis. You can expect them to treat this as a must win, despite the fact that neither of these two teams are going to the playoffs. The Rams have won three straight against the Bucs, and they are 4-0 ATS in their last four versus Tampa. 

Take STL. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Buffalo Bills. 

The Eagles are coming off an upset win over New England at Foxboro, but keep in mind that they caught the Pats without Gronk and Edelman. They had been blown out in back to back losses previously, and they went down 14-0 early in the win over New England. This week they face a tough Buffalo Bills team that comes in with a red hot Shady McCoy who still has an axe to grind. 

Rex Ryan is doing a great job in Buffalo, and it appears that his players have bought in, trusting in his system. The same can't be said for Chip Kelly, who is probably going to be back in college next year. He's made a complete mess of the Eagles, and his players look like they have quit on him. After paying a big price to get DeMarco Murray, the Eagles are rumored to be considering cutting last year's leading rusher. 

The Eagles secondary is really struggling, and opposing quarterbacks have a whopping 13 passing TDs against Philly in it's last three games. They are going to have a tough time containing Sammy Watkins, who finally looks healthy after battling injuries early in the year. He's caught 14 passes for 267 yards and three scored in his last two games. 

LeSean McCoy ran for 112 yards on just 21 carries against Houston last week, and I think he's going to have a big day in his return to Philly. 

Take BUF. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. 

The New Orleans Saints came very close to upsetting the undefeated Carolina Panthers last week, but Cam Newton threw the game winning TD pass with just one minute left on the clock, and the Panthers won 41-38. The Bucs also scored late to come from behind and beat the Falcons at home last week, and they are asked to cover a big spread at home versus the Saints today. Jameis Winston has had his moments this season, but his best games have been on the road. He's thrown six TD passes and nine picks at home, while he's thrown for 11 TDs and just two picks on the road. The Bucs are 6-6 overall, but three of those wins came by four points or less. Tampa doesn't inspire much confidence as a home favorite, going 18-38-1 ATS in their last 57 home games.

Take N.O. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on the Atlanta Falcons. 

The Panthers are now 12-0, and the hype machine is still churning at full speed. They are hosting a struggling Atlanta Falcons team this week, and they are asked to cover a big number at home. I think this team is long overdue for a let down, and last week in New Orleans they needed to score late to come from behind and steal a win. They went down 14-0 early in that game, and they allowed the Saints to score a whopping 38 points. 

The Falcons have lost five straight, but four of those five losses came by a margin of four points or less. Matt Ryan has had his struggles, but he's still 5th in the NFL in passing yards with 3,481. Julio Jones leads the NFL in receiving yards with 1,338, and I think the dynamic duo will be able to put points on the board here against the Panthers. 

Carolina crushed the Falcons in Atlanta last season by a score of 34-3, but the Falcons won in Carolina by a score of 19-17. Exactly half of the Panthers 12 wins this year have come by single digits, but four of their six home wins were decided by eight points or less. 

It's not easy to be at your best every night, or every week - as evidenced by the Patriots loss to the Broncos, or the Warriors losing last night to the Milwaukee Bucks. I like the Falcons to keep this game close, and don't be surprised to see another shocking upset. 

Take ATL. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Arizona Cardinals. 

The Minnesota Vikings are still tied with Green Bay at the top of the NFC North, but they were exposed by the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. I bet on Seattle in that game, and here is what I said prior to kickoff: 

"This is a Vikings team that I believe is one of the most overrated in the NFL. Last week's win over Atlanta marked the first time the Vikes actually beat a team with a winning record, as Minnesota has taken advantage of a very soft schedule."

"Minnesota has faced just three teams with a record above .500, losing two of those three. I don't see them stopping the Seahawks here today."

They had no answer for Seattle's offense, and injuries to key defenders Antone Exum, Anthony Barr and Harrison Smith did not help. All three players will miss tonight's game in Arizona. 

"The Vikings rookie quarterback has looked pretty shaky all season long, and I think facing an opportunistic Seahawks defense will be a recipe for disaster for Teddy Bridgewater. He threw for just 174 yards with no TDs and an INT in last week's win over Atlanta, and his eight TDs this season are only one more than his total interceptions (7)."

Bridgewater threw for just 118 yards and an INT on 17-of-28 passing in the loss to the Seahawks. Adrian Peterson was not pleased with his role in last week's loss, and has told reporters that his team was out-coached. Those comments aren't likely to sit will with Mike Zimmer, but Peterson isn't backing off, telling the media he stands by his comments. 

The Cardinals boast the NFL's 4th ranked defense, allowing fewer than 20 points per game. They are particularly strong against the run, allowing opponents to average just 89 rushing yards per game. 

This matchup looks like a disaster waiting to happen for the Vikings on a short week. 

Take ARIZ.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Washington Redskins. 

The Redskins are sitting at the top of the NFC East, despite a losing record of 5-6. They've won four straight at home, and they host the last place Cowboys tonight looking to make it five in a row. Kirk Cousins threw for 302 yards and a TD on 20-of-29 passing in a win over the Giants last Sunday. He connected with DeSean Jackson for a 63 yard pass in that game. Cousins has been actually been lighting it up at home in 2015, completing better than 74 percent of his passes for 1,632 yards and a 11 TDs with just two INTs. 

The Cowboys are still winless without Tony Romo, and Matt Cassel will get the start tonight. The 33 year old has thrown as many picks (5) as TDs so far. Four of those five interceptions have come on the road, and he has thrown just one TD pass in those games. Ideally the Cowboys would like to lean on their running game, but they haven't had much success running the ball lately. Darren McFadden picked up just 11 yards on 10 carries in the loss to Carolina. Dallas has failed to cover in four of it's last five visits to Washington, and I don't like it's chances here tonight. 

Take WAS. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Indianapolis Colts. 

The Colts aren't getting a lot of respect, coming into Pittsburgh as a big underdog on Sunday night. They've won three straight, and backup quarterback Matt Hasselbeck is 4-0 as a starter this season. During that span he's thrown for over 1000 yards, with seven TD passes and just two INTs. He had a big game at home last week, throwing for 315 yards and a pair of TDs in a win over Tampa Bay. 

The Steelers defense didn't look that sharp last week, allowing Russel Wilson to throw for 345 yards and five TDs. Two weeks earlier they were lit up by Derek Carr of the Raiders, who threw for 301 yards and four TDs in a 38-35 loss at Pittsburgh. 

The Steelers won big at home last year, defeating the Colts by a score of 51-34. Prior to that though these teams had played three straight games decided by three points or less. Given Pittsburgh's questionable defense, I think the Steelers are being asked to cover far too many points here on Sunday night. 

Take INDY. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on CAR@NO to go OVER the total.

The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury. 

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week's game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn't easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league's bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23. 

The Saints aren't exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league's top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that's been the case again this year. He's thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he's only been picked off four times in those five games. 

He's going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it's share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they've only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss. 

The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game.

Take OVER.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the New Orleans Saints. 

The Panthers are 12-0, and the hype machine is really going in full swing now. They come into New Orleans this week as a big favorite, and I think the Saints could give them a run for their money. Carolina crushed Dallas on Thanksgiving Day, but that game started with Tony Romo throwing a pick-six on the opening drive, and he ended up throwing three interceptions before leaving the game with a season ending injury. 

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Carolina suffer a let down this week, after having last week's game gift-wrapped courtesy of the Cowboys injured quarterback. Winning on the road isn't easy, even for a team that is 5-0 away from home. Keep in mind that their road wins include a handful of games against the league's bottom feeders. The Cowboys, Jags, Bucs and Titans all have losing records, and the only decent team they faced on the road was Seattle, and they had to rally to win that game late by a score of 27-23. 

The Saints aren't exactly a powerhouse either though, with a record of 4-7. Three of those four wins have come at home though, and the two games they lost at home were both close. Drew Brees is still one of the league's top quarterbacks, with 3200 yards and 20 TDs on the season. Throughout his career he has a history of playing his best football at home in the dome, and that's been the case again this year. He's thrown 14 of his 20 TD passes at home, and he's only been picked off four times in those five games. 

He's going to have to have a big game here against the Panthers, because Carolina will surely score it's share of points. Only the Giants rank worse against the pass than the Saints, who are allowing opponents to average 284 passing yards per game. The Panthers defense looks great statistically, but they've only faced two truly elite quarterbacks this season, and there were torched for a combined 55 points in those games. Andrew Luck rallied the Colts to come back and force overtime in a 29-26 loss at Carolina, and Aaron Rodgers threw for 369 yards and four TDs in the Packers 37-29 loss. 

The Saints are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 home games versus a team with a winning road record, and the majority of those games have seen plenty of points. The Panthers have seen the total go over in 10 of their last 13 road games. History suggests we will see a high scoring game, and I expect the Saints to keep it close, if not win outright. 

Take N.O.

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on PHI@NE to go UNDER the total. 

The Eagles have looked like the worst team in the NFL the last two weeks, losing back to back blowouts at Detroit and at home to Tampa Bay. This week's game at Foxboro looks like a tough one at first glance, but there are plenty of reasons to expect the unexpected. The Pats appear to be vulnerable, coming off a tough loss at Denver last Sunday. While they lost on the scoreboard, they also lost TE Rob Gronkowski to a knee injury, and defenders Patrick Chung and Donta Hightower were also banged up in Denver. 

Tom Brady has been taking a beating the last few weeks, and he was sacked three times last Sunday. His receiving corps this week is likely to look like a practice squad, as in addition to the injury to Gronkowski, Aaron Dobson and Julian Edelman are out, and Danny Amendola is questionable. 

More good news for Philly, it looks like starting quarterback Sam Bradford will return to face the Patriots after missing the last two games due to injury. The Eagles are still very much alive in the NFC East, so there is still plenty to play for here. With all of New England's injuries, the bookmakers have ajusted the point spread by as much as six points, but the total remains the same. I think this is a mistake. 

Take UNDER. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Denver Broncos. 

I still can't believe the Broncos were a home dog to the Packers in Week 8! Denver's defense was dominant in that game, holding Aaron Rodgers to a career worst 77 yards on 14-of-22 passing. Peyton Manning didn't throw a TD pass in that game, but Denver ran for 160 yards and three TDs. I expect to see a similar result here this week against the undefeated New England Patriots. This is such a tough spot for New England, coming off a short week, after playing a brutal home game against the Bills. Tom Brady took several punishing hits in that game, and he lost two more wide receivers. Already without Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman, both Aaron Dobson and Danny Amendola left with injuries and did not return. That will leave New England with no healthy wide receivers that have any real experience with Brady. Gronkowski didn't look good at all on Monday night, with several drops on balls that could have been caught. Brock Osweiler looked pretty sharp in his debut, throwing for 250 yards and a pair of TDs with no turnovers. He should be even more confident playing at home with one start under his belt. Take Denver. GL, Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Atlanta Falcons. 

The Falcons have lost three straight, but all three of those games were decided by three points or less. They were a little unfortunate last week, leading 21-7 in the third quarter, but allowing the Colts to score 17 unanswered points. They host the Vikes this week, and Minnesota is coming off a home loss to the Packers. Now I wasn't surprised to see them lose to Green Bay, as I've had the Vikes pegged as one of the most overrated teams in the league. 

While Minny has a 7-3 record, did anyone bother to look at their schedule? Have a peek at who they've played, and you will see that not one of those wins came against a team with a winning record. They've beaten the Lions twice, the Chargers, Chiefs, etc. 

Adrian Peterson only carried the ball 13 times for 45 yards last week, and he's going against the league's #1 ranked run defense. Atlanta has stuffed the run this season, allowing an average of just 87 rushing yards per game. 

On defense Minnesota will be without it's leading tackler and starting safety Harrison Smith. They gave up a season high 30 points in the loss to the Packers, and I don't like their chances of slowing down Matty Ice and Julio Jones. 

Take ATL. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule