This is a 10* play on OVER.

So based on the overall body of work in the regular season, you would have to say that San Francisco has been the better team. Go back to the final few weeks of the regular season and the playoffs, and you can't say that. San Francisco was lucky in both playoff games against Green Bay and Detroit. Jared Goff and Jordan Love both had big games at San Francisco, and now the Niners defense faces the most dynamic duo in playoff history in a dome at a neutral site. Andy Reid off a bye week should have a full bag of tricks at his disposal, and the Chiefs should get their share of points. The Buffalo Bills ran all over the Chiefs in the divisional round, totaling 182 yards and two TDs on the ground. Expect San Francisco to have success in the running game.

Prop bets include:

Mahomes most passing yards -155

Kelce most receiving yards +280

Kelce anytime TD +100

CMC over 87.5 rush yards -130

CMC to win MVP +475

CMC 2+ TDs  +260

Mahomes over 25.5 rush yards  -125

49ers over 1.5 rushing TDs +170

MVP QBvsField = Field +200

This is a 10* play on Over.

The Chiefs offense was humming in a bad weather game in Buffalo last week, albeit against a banged up Buffalo defense. That being said, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce appear to have their swagger back. The Chiefs defense had no answers for Josh Allen and the Bills offense, and if it wasn't for a few bad drops by Bills receivers, Buffalo likely wins that game. After Josh Allen ran for 72 yards and two TDs, you would expect Lamar Jackson to run all over this banged up Kansas City defense. These teams have scored 48+ combined points in each of the last five head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The easiest way to lose a fortune betting the NFL is to bet based on last week's results. We just saw the Packers go into Dallas and run all over the Cowboys. The bad news for Green Bay is that Mike McCarthy isn't coaching the 49ers, and they aren't getting anything for free here. The 49ers held opponents to 17 points per game during the regular season, and opponents averaged less than 90 yards per game on the ground. Coming off a bye, we should see San Francisco cause all sorts of problems for Jordan Love. The Packers have their hands full with CMC, and when on offense I expect the 49ers to burn up plenty of clock.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Browns offense is a different animal since Joe Flacco arrived. He's thrown for over 1600 yards and 13 touchdowns in just five games. Not only does Flacco have a Super Bowl ring, he also has a Super Bowl MVP Trophy in his collection. The Browns have gone over in seven straight road games, and they have gone over four of five with Flacco as the starter.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Over.

Michigan ranked #1 in the country in scoring defense this season, allowing less than 20 points per game. They are coming off a Rose Bowl win over Alabama, holding Jalen Milroe to just 116 passing yards and sacking him six times. Why is this game going to be different? Well Michael Penix Jr. is by far the best QB this Michigan defense will have seen this season. During the regular season the best QB they saw was Kyle McCord, and Ohio State scored 24 points on the road, outdoors in the winter at Ann Arbor. This is an indoor game in a dome, with an artificial surface, and that should favor the Huskies. Michigan has gone over the total in 16 of their last 21 neutral site games since 2004. While Alabama's offensive line struggled, and Jalen Milroe couldn't get the ball out quick enough, Michael Penix Jr is more than capable of getting the ball out in a hurry, and avoiding pressure. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Commanders are in last place in the NFC East, and they rank dead last in the NFL in scoring defense allowing over 30 points per game. They have allowed an NFL high 266 passing yards per game. The Rams have scored 30+ points in three straight games, and Matthew Stafford threw 10 TDs and just one INT in those games. The over is 5-1 in the Commanders last six overall, and the Rams have gone over in four of their last six.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Lions have allowed an average of 30 points per game in their last five overall, going 3-2 in those games. Jared Goff struggled on the road last week, but he's back home in the dome where he's played much better. The Broncos come in as winners of six of their last seven overall, and they are finally getting their money's worth from Russell Wilson. These teams have gone over in four of the last five meetings. The Lions have gone over the number in four of their last five overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Eagles had been getting it done with smoke and mirrors for weeks, but the bubble burst in a home loss to San Francisco on Sunday. Now they head to Dallas to face a well rested Cowboys team that has been firing on all cylinders. Dak Prescott has averaged well over 300 yards per passing per game over his last five. The Eagles rank 30th in the NFL against the pass, allowing over 260 yards per game. This is a mismatch, and a bad spot for the Eagles. These teams have gone over in six straight.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

There are those who will insist that the Bills are better than their record indicates. They certainly deserved better in a loss at Philly in their last game, but this isn't exactly a good spot on the road at Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off a loss at Green Bay on Sunday night, and they are 16-4 straight up in their last 20 overall. The Bills may be distracted by off the field issues, and playing in a tough spot on the road this week isn't ideal. The over is 3-2 in the last five meetings, but the number was at least six points higher in all five of those games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The under is 6-1 in the Raiders last seven home games. It's not like they have faced offensive juggernauts though. Their four home wins came against the Jets, the Patriots, the Giants and the Packers. Their last home game was a 31-17 loss to Kansas City. Minnesota is expecting Justin Jefferson back, and the Vikes have gone over in five straight in the month of December. These teams have gone over the number in four straight meetings, and the total for this game is far lower than it was in those previous meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Chargers look like one of the best teams in the NFL on paper, but their coach leaves a lot of points on the table and it often ends up costing them in close games. Scoring on the road in Green Bay might be a challenge. The Packers quietly rank 11th overall in scoring defense. The problem for Green Bay is that their offense stinks, and they have a ton of injuries at skill positions. Look for another low score here at Lambeau.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

San Francisco comes out of the bye week looking to get back on track. The defense should be in good shape with Chase Young making his debut. They have allowed just 16.5 points per game on the road this season. The offense is still a question with a pair of starters out on the offensive line. Brock Purdy has thrown five picks in his last three starts, and the Niners scored 17 in all three of those games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Vols aren't the offensive juggernaut they were a year ago, but they have been pretty solid defensively. They might not see the best of this Missouri offense, as star wide receiver Luther Burden was injured last week in the loss to Georgia. Brady Cook was sacked three times, throwing for 212 yards a TD and a pair of INTs on 14-of-30 passing in the loss to Georgia last week. The Tigers have gone under this number in four of their last six home games. Tennessee has failed to reach the total in two of their three road games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

After the Huskies beat Oregon at home a few weeks ago, they followed up with a 15-7 win over Arizona State. It's fair to say that they suffered a let down, and this looks like another let down spot coming off a 52-42 win over USC. The Utah Utes are a tough opponent, and the weather here in Washington could give them a boost. If the wind and rain in the forecast puts the damper on the passing game, the Huskies could be in four a fight. Utah has a Top 10 scoring defense allowing just 15.9 points per game. This game could be a low scoring battle.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Jayhawks are 5-0 at home and they have scored an average of 42 points in those games. They host Texas Tech Saturday, and the Red Raiders have owned them over the years. Texas Tech has won nine of the last 10 head to head meetings, and they scored 40+ in each of the last two meetings. The Red Raiders have been a better team with Behren Morton at QB. They are 4-2 in the games he has played, and 0-3 in the rest. The total here should probably be a bit higher.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

These teams are among the fastest (pace of play) in the country. South Florida lay a half a hundred on Memphis last week, and still lost by a score of 59-50. It was the third time in their last four games that they scored 50+. They have scored 40 or more in six of their last seven. They host Temple in a revenge game after losing 54-28 at Temple last season. Temple QB EJ Warner has thrown for 400+ yards in back to back games, and has nine TDs in those contests. This game has shootout written all over it.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Over.

The Sooners are banged up, and star linebacker Danny Strutsman is questionable for the last edition of Bedlam. The Cowboys offense has been firing on all cylinders, but during their winning streak they continue to give up a ton of yards and a ton of points. The long term forecast was calling for high winds and nasty weather, and that may have kept this total a little lower than expected. The latest news out of Stillwater is that weather will not be a concern. They don't call it Bedlam for nothing, we expect a shootout in Oklahoma.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

I bet the under in the Vols home game against Texas A&M. Here is what I said prior to the game: "The Vols ran for 238 yards and three TDs in a win over South Carolina two weeks ago, but they face a much tougher Aggies defense this week. Texas A&M held Alabama to just 23 rushing yards last week, but Jalen Milroe and Jermaine Burton lit them up. Joe Milton hasn't been lighting anybody up this season, and he won't have his top WR Bru McCoy for the rest of the season. This game should be a defensive battle, and we should expect a low score. Both these teams have held opponents to fewer than 20 points per game." Alabama should be able to dominate this game on the ground, and the Vols are going to struggle to score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Blue Devils have had a week off to recover from their heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame, and now they host NC State without starting QB Riley Leonard. We are likely to see freshman Henry Belin IV at QB, and that should mean a conservative game plan relying heavily on the running game and the defense. Duke ranks 4th nationally in scoring defense, and the Wolfpack are starting a backup quarterback who threw three INTs in his debut against Marshall last week. I expect MJ Morris to struggle against this Duke defense.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Bruins couldn't get anything going on offense when they played on the road at Utah, and a trip to Corvallis might just be a recurring nightmare for UCLA. That same Utah team that UCLA had so much trouble with, was held to seven points in a crushing 21-7 loss at Corvallis a week later. Far more significant than the results versus a common opponent, are the similarities in playing in such a hostile environment. The Beavers are 16-4 ATS in their last 20 home games, and they have held opponents to single digits in all three of their home games this season.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Vols ran for 238 yards and three TDs in a win over South Carolina two weeks ago, but they face a much tougher Aggies defense this week. Texas A&M held Alabama to just 23 rushing yards last week, but Jalen Milroe and Jermaine Burton lit them up. Joe Milton hasn't been lighting anybody up this season, and he won't have his top WR Bru McCoy for the rest of the season. This game should be a defensive battle, and we should expect a low score. Both these teams have held opponents to fewer than 20 points per game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Oregon State Beavers offense is heavily reliant on their running game, ranking 16th nationally averaging 206 yards per game. California ranks even higher, averaging 212 yards per game. Both teams are pretty solid on defense, so we should expect this game to be rock fight. The Golden Bears have gone under in all three of their home games so far, and with both teams looking to establish the run we could see a low score here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Huskies are the #1 passing offense in the country, and they are averaging over 49 points per game. The Huskies beat Arizona by a score of 49-39 last year, and the total for that game was 71.5. A lower number here, but I don't see how Washington scores less than 50. Both these teams want to play fast and air it out, and another high score should be expected. Last week the Bears scored 32 against Washington, I think we can count on Arizona scoring 20-30 here at home. Looking at 55-24 Huskies ...

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Alabama is coming off a dominant effort on defense, holding Ole Miss to just 10 points in a 24-10 home win. Nick Saban came in with a plan, and he executed with precision. He utilized the skill set of Jalen Milroe as a dual threat, as he ran the ball almost as much as he threw it. Overall Alabama ran 21 passing plays and 45 running plays. They head to Starkeville this week, and they beat the Bulldogs by a score of 30-6 last year. That was with Bryce Young at QB for Alabama, and Will Rogers in the Air Raid. The Bulldogs have abandoned the Air Raid, leaning more on their run game. These teams have gone under in five straight head to head meetings, and I expect that trend to continue here. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The new rules in college football season don't seem to have had a significant effect on totals for most teams, but the exception might be the likes of service academies and the likes of Iowa, Nebrasksa. This total sits at 53.5, and Navy has yet to play a game that has seen that much scoring. Early weather forecasts are calling for wind and rain in Anapolis on Saturday. Perfect conditions for a traditional ground and pound game with long slow drives that chew up the clock and result in a low scoring battle.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

The Crimson Tide have plenty of problems, but the defense isn't one one of them. Ole Miss comes in with a 3-0 record, but I think it's important have a closer look at those wins. Surely wins over Mercer and Georgia Tech can't be considered an indication that this team can upset Alabama. There is a double digit win over Tulane that you might think they can hang their hat on, but the Green Wave didn't have their starting QB in that game. The Rebels held a 27-20 lead with two minutes remaining in that game, however a comedy of errors saw them score 10 unanswered points in the final 1:53 seconds. I still think Alabama will win this game, but in order to do so they are going to need to slow the game down, play conservative, run the ball and lean on their defense.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

So the Cowboys defense shut out the Giants in New York in Week 1, and the Jets made Josh Allen look like Ryan Leaf. With Zach Wilson taking over at QB for the Jets, we expect them to be quite conservative on offense. The Cowboys are looking to ride Tony Pollard and their defense, so we could see a low scoring defensive battle here in this one.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. We saw the total go over in TCU's Week 1 loss to Colorado, and we saw Houston play a defensive battle versus UTSA in Week 1. The 1st half under hit in the Horned Frogs season opener, and I think the rule changes are leading to lower scores across the board in the first half of games. The public is betting the over in this game, but keep in mind TCU lost OC Garrett Riley and Max Duggan. Donovan Smith hasn't looked particular good replacing Clayton Tune at QB for Houston. This number appears to be a wee bit inflated.
 

GL,
 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. The Orange have allowed just seven point in their first two games, but they face a far tougher test here at Purdue. Both these teams lean heavily on the run, which should result in a lot of clock killing drives. This number appears to be a bit inflated. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. We saw the total go over in last year's game at Tennessee, the Vols winning 38-33. The rules aren't the only thing that has changed since then, as both teams have a downgrade at QB this season. So far we have seen both teams running the ball, and this game could see plenty of ground and pound. This number appears to be a bit inflated.

GL,
 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. We saw the total go under in both the Gophers first two games, allowing a combined 16 points in wins over Nebraska and Eastern Michigan. Tar Heels QB faces his toughest test yet, and he's struggled throwing for as many picks (2) as TDs (2). Minnesota will pound the rock, kill the clock and this game will be over before there is enough time to put up a combined 50 points.
 

GL,
 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Nick Saban's Crimson Tide have been the most dominant team in college football for over a decade, but the air of invincibility might be fading a little. Last year the Tide lost at Tennessee and LSU, and they really should have lost at Texas as well. Aided by a handful of blown calls by the officials, Alabama kicked a game winning field goal to win 20-19 in the final seconds. Texas returns nine starters on offense including QB Quinn Ewers. The Longhorns defense ranked 1st nationally in QB pressures last season, and they face Jalen Milroe who is making just his third start. His only start last year was a 24-20 home win over Texas A&M. Texas has the more experienced QB, and they should have the athletes on both sides of the ball to push Alabama to the brink just like they did last year. We should expect another low scorer here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

These teams played last season at College Station, and the Aggies won by a score of 17-9. With a new QB and Bobby Petrino coming in as offensive coordinator, Texas A&M might be a lot better on offense. Playing on the road at Miami doesn't figure to be a picnic though. The Canes were dominant in a win over Miami-Oh in Week 1. While the new rules regarding clock stoppages didn't really result in any clear under trend after the first week of college football, it did seem to effect some teams more than others. Neither of these two teams play particularly fast, so we could see a lot of time coming off the clock during extended drives.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under. 

You don't want to overreact to Week 1 results. Utah won convincingly at home over the Florida Gators and Baylor got lit up in a 42-31 home loss to Texas State. Utah won without Cam Rising, and Bryson Barnes was solid throwing for 159 yards and a TD on 12-of-18 passing. Nate Johnson came in at QB and ran for 45 yards and a TD on six carries. Baylor struggled on defense last season, and it looks like that has carried over into 2023. The Bears were 0-5 versus Top 25 teams, and the average margin of victory in those games was 11 points. The Bears lost starting QB Blake Shapen in Week 1, and Sawyer Robertson threw for 113 yards and an INT on 6-of-12 passing against Texas State. With or without Cam Rising the Utes have mismatches all over the field. The total in the Utes Week 1 game against FLA got bet down to 43.5. Should expect another low score here as both teams likely using backup QBs. 

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. Here we have a case where money is actually coming in on the over, and I think this presents an opportunity. The Cougars beat the Rams by a score of 38-7 last year, failing to reach the total of 51.5. Now we have a higher number, despite the fact that the Cougars lost their top four receivers, and their QB was sacked a PAC12 worst 46 times. Rams QB Clay Millen was sacked 53 times in just 10 games last year. These teams want to play fast and chuck it around the yard, but they can't do that if they can't keep their QB upright.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. Here we have a case where money is actually coming in on the over, and I think this presents an opportunity. While most people remember that Houston won 37-35 in overtime at UTSA last year, perhaps they forgot that the two teams combined to score just 48 points in regulation. The Cougars will have a new quarterback who is more of a dual threat than his predecessor, and star wide receiver Tank Dell is gone. I'll roll the dice that both these teams won't have time to score 30 before the clock runs out.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Bettors are still adjusting to the new rules regarding clock stoppages in college football, and bookmakers have scrambled to adjust the totals. Most opening numbers have been bet down, and I believe it's for very good reason. A source told me that teams are running on average 4-5 fewer plays since the rule change. That's nine plays between them throughout the course of a game. Ask yourself how many points would be scored, and how much time would be added if you had an additional nine plays. Here we have a case where money is actually coming in on the over, and I think this presents an opportunity. I understand that Colorado has a new offensive coordinator, who is famous for the "Flash Fast Offense", but can he get everyone on the same page in Week 1? Can the offensive line hold up? Or will they be punting back to TCU who also have a new offensive coordinator, and will the Horned Frogs lean on their running game as they did last year, rushing for 275 yards and four TDs on 30 carries in a 38-13 win at Colorado?

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on the Under.

Both the Conference Championship Games fell well short of the listed total, and there are plenty of signs we should expect a low score in the Super Bowl. The Eagles defense knocked out Brock Purdy early in the game, and held the 49ers to just seven points. Their offense was a run heavy attack, and we haven't seen much in the passing game since Jalen Hurts came back from a shoulder injury. The Chiefs defense sacked Joe Burrow five times, and picked him off twice. They held the Bengals to just 71 yards on the ground, and they rank 6th in the NFL in opponent rushing TDs. Patrick Mahomes was limited due to a high ankle sprain, and he might be less than 100 percent here even after two weeks.

GL,

Jesse Schule

SBLVII Props include: Over 51.5 rush attempts, Over 1.5 4th down conversions, Kelce anytime TD.

This is a 4* play on Under.

There is no doubt in my mind that Patrick Mahomes is going to play, but the question is how effective is he going to be. He wasn't too bad playing hurt last week, throwing for 195 yards and two TDs on 22-of-30 passing. He may not be able to extend plays with his legs, and that might result in a more conservative game plan from Andy Reid. This is a revenge spot for the Chiefs, after getting eliminated by the Bengals in a 27-24 OT home loss last January. There are a lot of trends pointing towards the under. The under is 26-10-3 in the Bengals last 39 road games, and the under is 12-3 in their last 15 games in January. These teams have gone under in five of the last six at Arrowhead.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under 45.5. 

The Niners have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL, and they completely shut down Dallas last week. They are trying to become the first team in history to send a rookie QB to the Super Bowl. Mr Irrelevant looked pretty pedestrian against an elite Dallas defense. He threw for 219 yards on 19-of-29 passing, with no TDs or picks. The last time these teams played, San Francisco won 17-11 it Philly is September of last season. The under is 15-5-1 in Eagles last 21 playoff games, and the under is 12-3-1 in Eagles last 16 playoff home games. This should be a defensive battle. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Despite five turnovers against the Chargers last week, the Jags scored 31 points and erased a 27-0 deficit. Trevor Lawrence threw for 288 yards and four TDs on 28-of-47 passing in the comeback. He has his work cut out for him if he wants to keep up with Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City ranks 1st in the NFL in passing (298 yds per game) and #1 in scoring averaging over 29 points per game. Kansas City doesn't have much of a running game, so we should see both teams air it out here. The over is 8-3 in Jaguars last 11 road games, and the Chiefs have gone over in 10 of their last 13 in the month of January.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

I can't take a side here, there's no way I trust either of these quarterbacks. Tom Brady has looked his age lately, throwing six INTs in his last four meaningful games. We won't count a meaningless game against Atlanta in the season finale. Dak Prescott has thrown eight picks in his last five starts, and his last game was a complete disaster. He threw for just 128 yards on 14-of-37 passing with a TD and an INT in a 26-6 loss to Washington. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last seven head to head meetings. I expect both coaches to be quite conservative, especially in the first half.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Trevor Lawrence threw for 262 yards and three TDs on 28-of-39 passing in a 38-10 win over the Chargers in LA in Week 3, but don't read too much into the fact that the Chargers were blown out in that game. Justin Herbert had broken ribs, and Keenan Allen didn't play. Despite all the injuries and dealing with adversity, Herbert still threw for almost 5,000 yards and 25 TDs this season. The Chargers boast the NFL's #3 ranked passing offense. Jacksonville won their final five games in the regular season, scoring an average of more than 29 points in those contests. The over is 6-1 in the last seven head to head meetings, and the Chargers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 versus Jacksonville. I expect both teams to score their share here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Both these teams should be geared up to play in the Rose Bowl. There aren't a lot of opt outs to worry about here, but both teams will be without their top corners. Cam Rising threw for 310 yards and three TDs on 22-of-34 passing in the PAC12 Championship game, beating USC 47-24. Penn State has scored at least 30 points in six straight games, and the over is 12-5 in the Nittany Lions last 17 non-conference games. They have also gone over in four of their last five versus PAC12 teams.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Over.

The line has moved significantly due to the injury to Jalen Hurts. I am not convinced that the Eagles are much worse off with Minshew Mania at the helm. Gardner Minshew has completed over 63 percent of his passes for 41 TDs and a dozen INTs in his NFL career. Most of his playing time came with the lowly Jacksonville Jaguars. Now he steps in behind an elite offensive line, on the best team in the NFL. There is every reason to expect him to be successful, as least moving the ball and putting points on the scoreboard. These teams have gone over in four straight, and three straight in Dallas. The total came down several points after the news that Hurts wouldn't play, and I still expect the Eagles to score enough to get the total over the number.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on over. 

The Vikings defense has given up 70 points in their last two games. Last week they trailed the Colts 33-0 at halftime, and came all the way back to win 39-36. They have now gone over the total in six of their last seven home games, and it would be no surprise to see another high score here against the Giants. The Vikings have allowed an average of 28 points in their last seven home games. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Over.

The Roadrunners and the Trojans each finished as Conference Champions, and they both come into their bowl game as winners of 10 straight games. Troy has done it with a Top 10 ranked defense, while UTSA has been an offensive juggernaut. UTSA has scored an average of 41 points per game over it's last 10, while Troy has scored over 100 points in their final two games of the regular season. Troy's defensive stats might be misleading, a product of the opposition they faced. When they played Western Kentyucky and Appalachian State, both of those games saw 60+ points.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Lions are 5-7, and yet they are favorite here at home against a 10-2 Minnesota team. Both these teams are playing their best football of late, each winnimng four of their last five games. The Lions rank dead last in the NFL in total defense, allowing 402 yards per game. Right behind them are the Vikings allowing 398 yards per game. The Lions lost 28-24 at Minnesota earlier this season, and last December they won 29-27 at Ford Field. The over is 11-5 in the Vikings last 16 road games, and the Lions have gone over in six of their last eight home games. The over is 4-1 in the Vikings last five at Detroit.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Over.

Heading into the season we thought the duo of Derek Carr and Davante Adams would put up huge numbers. They got off to a slow start, but over the last five games Adams is averaging over 132 receiving yards per game. He also has seven TDs during that span. The Raiders come into LA as winners of three in a row, and they face a Rams defense decimated by injuries. Geno Smith threw for 367 yards and three TDs in LA on Sunday. Despite a lost season for the Rams, they were still competitive against Seattle. These games may just be an opportunity for players like Cam Akers and Van Jefferson to pad their stats. The Raiders 26th ranked defense allows 25 points per game, so there should be opportunities.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on the Under.

The last game played at Gillette Stadium saw the Patriots score just three points up until the final five seconds of regulation. They were quite fortunate that they held the Jets to just three points on just 103 yards of offense. They were even luckier to return a punt for a touchdown to walk the game off for the win. They host the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night, and both these teams boast Top 5 scoring defenses each allowing just 18 points per game. The weatherman says it's going to be cold with rain and wind (if you can trust the forecast several days out). The Pats have held opponents to three points or less in three of their last four games. I think 21 points will be enough to win this game

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The Trojans can keep their playoff hopes alive with a win at home over Notre Dame, but this game could be tricky. Just a week after they gave up 45 points in a win over UCLA, we should expect the Irish do get their fair share of points here in LA. This USC defense has been lit up for 30+ points in four of their last five games, but they also have the nation's #3 ranked offense. Notre Dame has a resume propped up by signature wins over #16 Syracuse and #4 Clemson. The Orange had an injury at QB, and they had home field against the Tigers. Caleb Williams and Jordan Addison present a whole different challenge than DJ Uiagalelei and the Tigers. Look for USC to win a shootout here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

The Utah Utes rank 1st in the Pac12 in total defense, and they are allowing 20 points per game this season. Oregon State comes in allowing 20.3 points per game. The Beavers at home though are borderline elite defensively. This was evident when they held USC to a season low 17 points, and Caleb Williams to just 180 yards on 16-of-36 passing in late September. Bo Nix was playing on one leg last week, but the Ducks got the win 20-17 over Utah behind a strong effort from the defense. The under is 11-4 in the Ducks last 15 road games, and the under is 5-1 in the Beavers last six home games versus a team with a winning road record.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over. 

The Tar Heels have a high powered offense and a Heisman contender at QB, but they rank dead last in the ACC against the pass. Freshman QB MJ Morris has proven he can move the ball against below average defenses, throwing for 475 yards and six TDs in wins over Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. The Wolfpack had a bit of a let down last week against Boston College, but expect them to be better in this rivalry game. The over is 20-8 in the Tar Heels last 28 versus a team with a winning record. Expect both teams to do their share of scoring in what should be a great game. 

GL, 

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Ole Miss ran for 463 yards, and gained a total of 703 yards in a loss (yeah that's right) to Arkansas last week. They also gave up over 500 yards to the Hogs, and 335 yards on the ground. They face a Mississippi State team in the Egg Bowl that doesn't run much, but Will Rogers did throw for 336 yards in a losing effort versus the Rebels last year. The Rebels have gone over in five of their last six overall, and the over is 4-1 in their last five coming off a loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

So TCU scored just 17 points on 289 total yards in a win at Texas last week. Their defense was impressive, holding Texas to 10 points on 199 total yards. The question is, did Texas give Dave Aranda the blueprint for slowing down the Horned Frogs offense? I think Baylor has to try to replicate what Texas did, slowing down this game and limiting the possessions. Blake Shapen threw for 203 yards and two INTs on 22-38 passing last week, so don't expect him to be slinging it around the yard this week. I expect to see both teams favor the run in bad weather, resulting in time coming off the clock.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Traditionally midweek MAC games have been high scoring. I am betting against that trend continuing here on Wednesday night. The weatherman says to expect rain, snow and wind. The wind is the most significant factor. High winds make kicking field goals a tricky proposition, prompting more fourth down attempts, eventually leading to empty drives. When the passing game is off the table, the clock keeps ticking with every running play. The Broncos have failed to reach the total in four straight overall, and five straight when coming off a loss.

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Traditionally midweek MAC games have been high scoring. I am betting against that trend continuing here on Wednesday night. The weatherman says to expect rain, snow and wind. The wind is the most significant factor. High winds make kicking field goals a tricky proposition, prompting more fourth down attempts, eventually leading to empty drives. When the passing game is off the table, the clock keeps ticking with every running play. The Red Hawks have gone under in five of their last six MAC games, and they have failed to reach the total in five straight road games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Traditionally midweek MAC games have been high scoring. I am betting against that trend continuing here on Wednesday night. The weatherman says to expect rain, snow and wind. The wind is the most significant factor. High winds make kicking field goals a tricky proposition, prompting more fourth down attempts, eventually leading to empty drives. When the passing game is off the table, the clock keeps ticking with every running play. The Golden Flashes have gone under in six of their last seven MAC games, and the under is 6-2 in their last eight versus Eastern Michigan.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

This is the last stand for the Packers this season. If they are going to save the season it has to happen here against Dallas. They get a home game in bad weather, normally an ideal spot for this team. I expect them to bring a ton of intensity on defense and lean on their running game. It's not clear if Aaron Rodgers can do anything with this receiving corps. The Cowboys have failed to reach the total in seven of their last nine overall, and the under is 7-3 in their last 10 games in November. The under is 6-1 in the Packers last seven games following a straight up loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* play on Under.

Did you know it snows in Nevada? Maybe not in Las Vegas but snow is actually pretty common in Reno. The forecast is calling for snow and -5 temps in a late game in Reno here on Saturday night. Boise State doesn't have much of a passing game with QB Taylen Green (6 TD, 4 INT). We've seen the total go under in six of Nevada's last eight home games in the month of November, and these two teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight head to head meetings. Not surprising considering Nevada ranks 119th nationally in passing (176 yards per game).

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Tulane.

It's 2022, and in this season the Tulane Green Wave have been the better team. That's not really debatable. Despite coming in with an 8-1 overall record and a 5-0 conference record, they are close to a pickem here at home versus UCF. The Knights have name recognition, and the bigger brand. Starting QB John Rhys Plumlee was sidelined by a concussion last week, and Mikey Keene was solid throwing for 219 yards, three TDs and an INT of 22-of-28 passing in a 35-28 win over Memphis. We expect Plumlee back this week, but he runs into the #11 ranked Tulane defense that is allowing under 17 points per game. The Knights are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win, while the Green Wave are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Alabama is in uncharted territory, with two regular season losses and presumably eliminated from the college football playoff. A lot of people talk about Alabama being 5-0 ATS coming off a loss, but I am not sure those trends are relevant here in a "dream crusher" scenario. They have been terrible on the road all year, including a 52-49 loss at Tennessee. The Vols had 567 total yards in that game, and it's interesting that Ole Miss presents a similar challenge when it comes to pace of play. When these teams met last year the total was set at 80, and the bookmakers set the total over 70 in three of the last four meetings. The Rebels have gone over the number in four straight games, and I expect both teams to score their fair share here.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is 4* play on under.

Clemson was exposed by Notre Dame last week, but they return home to face a Louisville team that they have owned in recent years. The Tigers are 7-0 straight up in seven meetings since 2014. They will have their hands full with this Cardinals defense, that ranks 4th nationally in sacks per game. DJ Uiagalelei has been sacked 10 times in his last four starts, and he's looked pretty bad when under pressure. Clemson has failed to cover in nine of their last 12 home games. You look back to their most recent home game and they were quite lucky to sneak past Syracuse, scoring 17 unanswered points in the 4th quarter to win 27-21. Don't be surprised if the Cardinals give them a similar challenge.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Under.

Maryland couldn't get anything going offensively in a bad weather game at Wisconsin last week. Taulia Tagovailoa threw for just 77 yards with a TD and an INT on 10-of-23 passing in a 23-10 loss. It's expected to be another cold and windy winter day at Beaver Stadium Saturday. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games. These teams have failed to reach the total in six of the last eight meetings, and the under is 4-0 in the last four at University Park.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

Illinois inexplicably lost to Michigan State last week, despite a 441-294 edge in total yards, and a 25-17 edge in first downs. They are in a good spot here at home against Purdue, a team that is reeling after back to back losses to Iowa and Wisconsin. Aidan O'Connell threw five INTs and just one TD pass in those games. He faces the nation's #1 ranked scoring defense in bad weather on the road this week. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight head to head meetings, and the Fighting Illini are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a ATS loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

The South Florida Bulls fired their head coach after a drubbing at Temple last week. They gave up 54 points to the 119th ranked offense in the country (after scoring 54). On the bright side, Katravis Marsh threw for 176 yards and three TDs. He's thrown for 649 yards, 6 TDs and just one INT since taking over at QB. SMU comes in ranked Top 5 in the nation in passing, and Top 10 in scoring. The over is 12-1 in the Bulls last 13 home games, and they have gone over in 11 of their last 13 coming off a loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Indiana ranks dead last in the BIG10 in rushing, so if the weather prevents them from having success in the passing game they are going to be in big trouble. They lost 24-0 at Penn State last year, and another low score seems likely here. The under is 8-2 in the Nittany Lions last 10 games in November, and the Hoosiers have failed to reach the total in four of their last five in the BIG10.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Weather conditions could play a roll here with rain and heavy winds expected. Both these teams are expected to abandon the passing game in these conditions, and this will allow the opposing defense to sell out to defend the run. We should see less FG attempts, more turnovers, making it difficult to run up the score.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

Everybody knows that midweek games in the MAC can often be high scoring, and because of that the total for this game is almost at 60. In fact it's six points higher than the last time Buffalo Played in Athens. Only once in the last six head to head meetings has the listed total been higher than 55 points. Even given the much lower totals, only one of the last five head to head meetings reached the number. Buffalo ranks second in the MAC in scoring defense allowing 24 points per game. The under is 4-1 in the Bobcats last five conference games, and the under is 7-2 in the Bulls last nine games following a straight up win.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 3* play on Under.

Northwestern comes into Iowa on a six game losing streak, scoring an average of just 16.5 points per game in those losses. This Iowa defense is better than any they have faced this season, and you really have to wonder how the Wildcats could possibly score a TD here. It's likely more likely that their defense record a pick-six than it is for their offense to punch one in. Iowa's offense is historically bad, so it could be a busy day for kickers. These teams have failed to reach the total in five straight meetings, and they combined for an average of less than 30 points in those games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 2* play on Under.

The Patriots welcome back Mac Jones on Monday night at home against the Bears, despite the fact that their offense looked a lot better with Bailey Zappe under center. Jones has thrown for 786 yards, 2 TDs and 5 INTs on 66 percent passing this season. This isn't exactly a favorable matchup as the Bears rank among the best in the NFL against the pass allowing just over 170 yards per game. The good news for New England is that Chicago can't stop the run, allowing over 160 yards per game on the ground. This should prompt Belicheck to pound the rock, burning the clock and slowing the game down. History favors the under, as the Patriots have gone under in six of their last seven MNF games, while the Bears have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight on Monday night. The under is 11-2 in the Bears last 13 games in October.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

Middle Tennessee is coming of a stunning upset as a 25 point underdog at Miami, winning that game outright by a score of 45-31. This might set them up for a let down on Friday night against UTSA. The Roadrunners are 2-2 with a pair of losses to ranked teams. Both these teams can score in a hurry, and neither team has inspired much confidence on defense. To put it into perspective, the Roadrunners gave up over 300 passing yards to Army (yes Army). The Blue Raiders allowed 44 points and six passing TDs in a loss to a an FCS team in Week 1. The over is 10-1 in the Roadrunners last 11 games overall, and they have gone over in seven straight road games. I see both these teams scoring 30+ here in this game.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

It's not Josh Allen who leads the NFL in passing after two weeks, but Tua Tagovailoa. He threw for 469 yards and six TDs in last week's 42-38 win over the Ravens. He's got has hands full this week against the Buffalo Bills who lead the league in scoring. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games, as the over is 10-4 in the last 14 head to head meetings. It sure looks like the dynamic duo of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill has turned the Dolphins into an offensive juggernaut. We should expect both these teams to get their share of points, and this total appears to be a bit on the low side.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is play on Under.

Posted this Sunday night before the news broke that Dak would be out for several weeks. The line has since been bet down by more than a TD which sort of kills off any value for clients.

This is a 2* play Under.

The teams played a high scoring game in Week 1 last year, but I am not expecting a repeat performance. Tom Brady is 45 years old and didn't practice for most of the pre-season. The Bucs lost their starting center, but they are still in far better shape than the Cowboys who will really miss Tyron Smith. Dak Prescott won't have Amari Cooper, and Ezekiel Elliott is trending in the wrong direction. The under is 9-3 in the Cowboys last 12 games overall, and they have failed to reach the total in four straight home games versus Tampa Bay.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 4* play on Over.

There is some optimism that the Lions will be better this year, particularly on offense. There is still plenty of reason to be skeptical of their defense. The Eagles come in with plenty of weapons, and they are projected to have the best offensive line in football. They should get their points. The Eagles scored 44 points at Detroit last year, and these two teams have gone over in eight straight head to head meetings. The over is 16-7 in Lions last 23 home games, and they have gone over in 16 of their last 21 season openers. You know they say that History Repeats Itself!

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Bengals managed to win on the road at Tennessee last week despite QB Joe Burrow getting sacked nine times. They will have no hope here in Kansas City if they fail to protect Burrow, despite the fact that they beat the Chiefs 34-31 in Cincinnati just a few weeks ago. The Chiefs had a 28-17 lead at halftime in that game, and we could see both teams score their share of points here in Kansas City. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 782 yards and eight TDs on 76 percent passing in the Playoffs so far. The Chiefs are 11-1 in their last 12 overall, and they have gone over the total in seven straight overall. Don't be surprised if Kansas City wins this one in a blowout 42-24.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 10* GOY play on Under.

The Cowboys have looked like Super Bowl favorites at times, but they haven't been at their best lately. Don't be fooled by their big win over the Eagles, in a game that Philly rested all their starters. Perhaps a more accurate indicator would be their home loss to Arizona a week earlier. They host a San Francisco team that poses a similar challenge. The Niners are going to try to punch the Cowboys in the mouth. What that means is, they will look to run the ball and control the clock, keeping the ball out of the hands of Dak Prescott. The Niners have failed to reach the total in five of their last six playoff games. The under is 8-3 in the Cowboys last 11 games overall, and Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last six playoff games. The total for this contest is higher than it had been in each of the last six head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The total for the Guaranteed Rate Bowl is pretty low, and even though both these teams are great defensively, I think we will see closer to 50+ points. Minnesota won six of their last eight games, and they've scored an average of 27 points during that span. Minnesota has been quite successful in recent bowl games, covering in four straight. Most recently they defeated Auburn 31-24 in the Outback Bowl in 2019. I like the Gophers to win in similar fashion here in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

GL.

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

Western Michigan will be a significant favorite here in the Quick Lanes Bowl, and we should see plenty of scoring. The Broncos averaged over 30 points per game this season, and they gave up almost as many. Nevada won't have QB Carson Strong, who opted out as he prepares for the draft. The Wolfpack will also have a running backs coach leading them in this game. The over is 5-2 in the Broncos last seven games overall, and the over is 8-3 in the Wolf Pack's last 11 games overall.

GL,

Jesse Schule

8*

This is a 5* play on Under.

The Titans offense has struggled since losing Derrick Henry, averaging fewer than 15 points in their last four games overall. Their defense has continued to play well, allowing fewer than 20 points in those games. They rank 2nd in the NFL versus the run, allowing just 86.9 rushing yards per game. The Titans have failed to reach the total in six of their last eight home games, and with all the injuries points could be hard to come by here against the 49ers.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Over.

The UTSA Road Runners bring a high powered offense into this Bowl Game. They scored 49 points in a win over the Hilltoppers in the C-USA Championship game. They averaged 38 points per game this season, and the over is 5-1 in the Roadrunners last six games overall. San Diego State was a defensive powerhouse in the Mountain West, but they might not be motivated to grind it out on defense in a Bowl Game. The Aztecs have allowed an average of 27 points in their last three bowl games, and two of those went over the total. I expect to see plenty of scoring here in the Frisco Bowl.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over.

The Seahawks and the Rams are relatively lucky to come into this game with most of their players healthy. A couple extra days have allowed the Rams to get several players back from the Covid list. Both these QBs come in hot, with Russell Wilson throwing for six TDs and just one INT in his last three starts, and Mathew Stafford throwing for nine TDs and just one INT in his last three starts. Seattle still ranks dead last in total defense allowing almost 400 yards per game. When these teams played earlier this season the total was set at 53.5, and now in LA we see a much lower number. Expect Russell Wilson to score enough to keep this game interesting and push the total over.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

Cold winter nights at Lambeau Field are not an ideal setting for quarterbacks to pad the stats in the passing game. Justin Fields rarely tosses the ball around the yard at the best of times. He's only bettered this number twice this season, and in a home loss to the Packers he threw for 174 yards with a TD and an INT on 16-of-27 passing. Fields is coming back from a rib injury, and while he's healthy enough to start this game, there's no guarantee he will finish it.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

All of a sudden the Denver Broncos have won three of their last four and they rank 1st in the NFL in scoring defense. The Chiefs have won four straight, and their defense has allowed just 12 points per gane during that span. They have been a lot more focused on their running game, and they ran for 126 yards and two TDs in a win over the Cowboys two weeks ago. Patrick Mahomes didn't throw a TD pass in that game, and he's only had one multi TD game in his last five starts. The under is 23-11 in the Broncos last 34 games in December, and the under is 4-1-1 in the last six head to head meetings.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Over

Utah State will play San Diego State in the Mountain West Championship game, and I think the Aggies are biting off more than they can chew. This Utah State team is fresh off a 44-17 home loss to Wyoming two weeks ago, and the Cowboys ran for 362 yards in that game. The last time they faced San Diego State, the Aztecs ran for over 400 yards and won by 31. The Aztecs are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 home games, and they have covered in four of their last five versus Utah State. Three of the last four head to head meetings have gone over the total.

GL,

Jesse Schule

5*

This is an 8* play on Over.

Louisville scored 35 points in the first half last week against Duke, and they scored 35 points in the first half in their last home game against Syracuse. Now Kentucky is a step up in competition, but the Cardinals are still going to score their points. Five of the last six head to head meetings have gone over the total. The over is 8-3 in the Cardinals last 11 games in November, and the over is 23-7 in the Wildcats last 30 non-conference games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The Ducks playoff hopes are over, and they might be vulnerable here in this big rivalry game. Weather could be a factor, with rain in the forecast. We expect both teams to lean heavily on their running game, which should chew up the clock and keep the score from getting too high. The under is 4-0 in the Ducks last four games following a straight up loss. The Beavers defense held Arizona State to just 3.3 yards per carry (100 total rush yards) last week. They have plenty of reason to get up for this game, so don't be surprised if they give the Ducks a run for their money.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is a 5* play on Under.

The Cyclones are coming off back to back losses to Texas Tech and Oklahoma, and they finish the season at home against TCU. The Horned Frogs have plenty to play for, with a chance to become bowl eligible. The Cyclones have gone under in eight of their last nine home games, and the under is 4-1 in their last five games in November. It's going to be a freezing cold day at Jack Trice Stadium, and I think a total over 60 seems a little inflated.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

You look at this game between Ole Miss and Mississippi State, with two head coaches that are known for their offense, you might think this will be a high scoring game. History says otherwise, as these teams have gone under in eight of the last 10, and seven of the last eight head to head meetings. Both teams have shown that they can play defense in recent weeks. The Rebels have held three straight opponents to fewer than 20 points, and they have gone under 60 combined points in six straight overall. The under is 12-5 in the Bulldogs last 17 home games.

GL,

Jesse Schule

This is an 8* play on Under.

The mid week MAC games have been going over the total at an incredible rate, and perhaps that's why the bookmakers have listed the total so high for tonight's game between Buffalo and Ball State. The Bulls will have their backup QB under center, and the Cardinals offense ranks dead last in the MAC West. Ball State has failed to reach the total in seven straight home games, and the under is 5-0 in the Cardinals last five games following an ATS loss.

GL,

Jesse Schule