Connecticut Sun look to retain the inside track on a bye to the semifinal round of the playoffs Friday night when they host the reigning WNBA champion Seattle Storm. However, I don't believe the sledding will be easy, for a  Sun side that is still getting acclimated to being at home after a exhausting 4 game  road trip that including 3 straight games out west. I know the visiting Storm were smashed by the Mystics last time out, but after that embarrassment Im betting this proud championship team will be out looking for redemption and will be prepared to play a strong game. 

Note: Storm are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games following a ATS loss.

Sun are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.Sun are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 Friday games.Sun are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.Sun are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.Sun are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.Sun are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Sun are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. Western Conference.

Play on the Seattle Storm to cover 

Seattle swept Washington in the 2018 championship series and won this season's first meeting 74-71 on the road June 14. However, the Mystics (17-7) finally got some amount of revenge with a 99-79 win at Seattle on Aug. 2 and will be ready to send another message to the Storm here tonight.

Storm are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.Mystics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Mystics are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a straight up win.Mystics are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.Mystics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - a very good team (+7 or more  PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after scoring 75 points or more are 27-1 SU winning by an average of 12.7 ppg. 

Play on the Washington Mystics to cover

Both these teams are playing very good basketball at the moment, with the Sky having won 7 of their L/8 games, while the Sparks have also won 7 of their L/8. But home court advantage Im betting will be the difference makers and after playing a grueling competitive game in Las Vegas a couple of days ago the Sky will not be as fresh as they need to be vs a LA team on a 5 game home winning streak that plays their best in Southern California. LA has won the L/4 meetings in this series dating back to last season and they get the nod again this Sunday.

Play on the LA Sparks to cover 

Phoenix  getting to the playoffs is not guaranteed and they need wins, but Dallas who most probably wont be in the play offs would love to play spoilers here, against a team that they have matched up well against recently despite of losing all three meetings with the last two having been decided by a combined 9 points.I once again look for a fairly close affair , and for a Dallas team that is winless on the road this season, to play loose and stay within the number for a cover.

Mercury are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.

Play on the Wings to cover 

The Liberty will desperately try to avoid being swept at the hands of the Sky, but also look to keep from matching a season high with their fourth consecutive overall defeat. Needless to say they have some pride on the line here, and Im betting they play hard and at least make this competitive vs a red hot team. 

NEW YORK is 10-2 ATS in road games double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent over the last 2 seasons. 

WNBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off a road win against a division rival are 39-27 SU L/5 seasons.

WNBA Road underdogs (NEW YORK) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins are 50-21 ATS L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the NY Liberty to cover 

Atlanta has lost 6 straight games, but other than a couple of clunkers have been mostly competitive, and are viable underdogs vs a Chicago Sky team, that has lost 6 of 9 and 4 of their L/5  on the road this season, WNBA Underdogs (ATLANTA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses, a terrible team (25% or less) playing a team with a winning record are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover 

Vegas has won seven of eight and shares the top spot in the league with Connecticut and are getting a negative public lean , which according to my power rankings gives us value with a underdog wager with the Dallas Stars. Add to that Dallas has not been able to win  regularly in July, going 1-7 which gives us a recency bias. 

LAS VEGAS is 12-23 ATS in home games versus teams who make 5 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons. LAS VEGAS is 6-15 ATS  in home games vs. division opponents over the last 3 seasons.

AS VEGAS is 0-6 ATS after a game where they covered the spread this season. 

WNBA Road underdogs (DALLAS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins are 50-20 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (LAS VEGAS) - averaging 45 or more rebounds/game on the season, in May, June, or July games are 9-33 ATS L/22 seasons for a 79% go against conversion rate for bettors.

DALLAS is 6-1 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons.

Play on the Dallas Wings to cover 

The NY Liberty started their season slowly but overall have performed well of late and been competetive as is evident by covering 8 of their L/11 games vs a winning side, and are off a impressive SU win vs the LASparks last time toout. Meanwhile, Connecticut despite of a impressive record this season  have  been inconsistent  and are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. My own power rankings suggest this line is slightly bloated thus giving us value with the travelling dog. 

 WNBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CONNECTICUT) - averaging 45 or more rebounds/game on the season, in May, June, or July games are 9-32 L/5 seasons for a go against 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Liberty to cover

The Atlanta Dream are a very contrarian side to be on tonight. In my usual contradictory betting bias that the side Im recommending we take tonight in this battle against the visiting Los Angeles Sparks. It must be noted that Los Angeles (10-8) played the last three games with just eight players as Candace Parker (ankle), Alana Beard (hamstring), Alexis Jones (knee) and Maria Vadeeva (knee) are all hurt and Riquna Williams is currently suspended and with the all star break coming up Im doubting these players will be rushed back to the court. Los Angeles barely beat  Atlanta 76-71 in overtime on the road July 14, and Im betting now on tired legs and short handed the Sparks could get upset. 

WNBA  team vs the money line (LOS ANGELES) - off an upset loss as a road favorite, playing with 2 days rest are 23-10 SU L/5 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% after 15 or more games are 5-32 SU L/5 seasons for a go against 87% conversion rate for bettors. 

Take the points with the Atlanta Dream

My power ranking suggest Indiana despite of their dismal record matches up well against streaking Sky. When these teams played back on June 15 Chicago won 70-64 at Indiana  in a game that essentially was up for grabs, and Im betting on a repeat confrontation here. Note: Indiana has won 4 straight on the road in this series and gets the nod to cover again. 

Sky are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.Sky are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Fever are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Fever are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.Fever are 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings in Chicago.

WNBA Road teams (INDIANA) - after 4 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins are 31-9 ATS L22 seasons for a 78% conversion rate! 

 Play on Indiana to cover 

Dallas, which has the worst record in the league, has dropped four straight and six of seven and dont deserve to be favs even against a banged up Mercury side. Look for the Mercury key contributors Grinner and Bonner to be the difference makers. 

Home underdogs (DALLAS) - good ball handling team - committing 14 turnovers/game, on Saturday games are 17-41  ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road teams (PHOENIX) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 35-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Phoenix Mercury to cover 

The Aces are slight dogs here, but this team is an explosive group that already beat Storm at home 60-56 back on June 25th. Now well rested and off since Saturday I expect this young but powerful Aces group to battle hard and be fresh enough to come out on top. 

Aces are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

WNBA team (SEATTLE) - a good offensive team (72-76 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (76 or PPG) after 15+ games, after scoring 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games and  19-45 ATS for 70% go against conversion rate over the  L/22 seasons. 

Play on the Las Vegas Aces to cover 

The Wings played the Mercury hard yesterday and covered, and now according to my power rankings Dallas is being underestimated in their ability to cover vs LA here today, which gives us value on this line. I know the Wings are on short rest, but the Sparks are banged up with Candace Parker, Alan Beard, Alexis Jones, and Maria Vadeeva out, and short handed with key starter Riquna Williams' taking a lengthy suspension. Dallas has an edge especially from a ATS standpoint. 

Dallas is 7-1 ATS L/8 meetings in this series and have covered 3 of their L/4 visits to LA.

WNBA Road teams (DALLAS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins are 52-18 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Wings to cover 

The Mercury on a two game losing streak  and losses in 4 of their L/5   proved to me they dont matchup all that well vs the Wings. In the  first meeting with the Wings this season on June 20. the Mercury two key offensive threats  Griner and Bonner were held to a combined 20 points as Phoenix shot 24.6 percent and was outrebounded 49-28. While I dont expect that lopsided of a occurrence here I do believe we have value taking points with the visitors. Note:Diana Taurasi is downgraded to doubtful Wednesday vs Dallas Wings ( Back ).

Play on the Dallas Wings to cover 

Atlanta according to my power rankings is being under rated here thus giving us value taking points with the with the Dream vs Chicago. Atlanta won two of the three games between the teams last year, including an 89-74 romp at home in the most recent matchup.

WNBA Home favorites (CHICAGO) - after a game where they covered the spread, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team are 25-57 L/5 seasons for go against 70% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

Chicago recorded a 78-66 home win over Dallas last Sunday to snap a five-game losing streak and once again have the edge according to my projections that make them a -1 point  favorite instead of a dog. Note: Dallas is expected to be short-handed along the frontcourt for this match, with Azura Stevens sidelined with a foot injury and center Isabelle Harrison's status uncertain as she is in concussion protocol and unlikely to play. 

Sky are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.Sky are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Western Conference.

Wings are 8-18-1 ATS in their last 27 games overall.Wings are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 vs. Eastern Conference.Wings are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games following a ATS loss.Wings are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games.

Play on the Chicago Sky to cover 

L.A. has shown flashes of brilliance of late at least when at home, but is a different stroy on the road where they are   3-5 SU and been outscored by an average of 14.7 points while losing three in a row and are expected to be without Candace Parker tonight ( Candace Parker is downgraded to OUT Friday vs Indiana Fever ( Foot ).  Meanwhile, the Atlanta Dream despite of having problems getting into the win column consistently are a under rated side, and on most nights a very competitive team that just cant get over the hump. With that said, getting points with the host Fever according to my projections is a viable wager. 

LOS ANGELES is 4-12 ATS versus teams who attempt 16 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons. 

Play on the Indiana Fever to cover 

The Chicago Sky have shown a lot   improvement since opening 2019 with a lopsided loss to the Minnesota Lynx and now in revenge mode are viable bets here on an almost pickem line. Minnesota is off a hard fought win vs Connecticut last time out by a 74-71 score , and could easily find themselves in a letdown spot here vs a hungry team. Note:MINNESOTA is 0-8 ATS  after a win by 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Play on the Chicago sky to cover 

According to my projections this line is slightly bloated giving us value with the under rated Phoenix Mercury who now have Diana Taurasi travelling with the team and is expected to  back in the lineup after a lengthy lay off. Meanwhile , Washingtons, star Delle Donne broke here nose last time out, and is less than 100% entering this game giving the Mercury and edge here on this line. 

The Mercury have won and covered 2 of their L/3 visits here to Washington DC. 

Thibault is 19-30 ATS  in home games in non-conference games as the coach of WASHINGTON.

Brondello is 8-1 ATS  after 3 straight games where they committed 11 or less turnovers as the coach of PHOENIX.

WNBA Home teams vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Wednesday nights are 8-23 su L/22 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Take the points with Phoenix to cover 

Washington has won the L/4 meetings in this series, and are showing that they are contenders for a WNBA championship if they can stay healthy. They have won 5 straight games, and are showing no signs of slowing down, making them viable road favs here vs the inconsistent LA Sparks. 

WNBA Road favorites (WASHINGTON) - after 5 or more consecutive wins, in July games are 33-11 ATS L/22 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Mystics to cover 

The NY Liberty are playing top tier basketball entering this game, as they look for their fourth straight victory. Even though Diania Taurasi is expected to return to the court tonight for the Mercury after a long absence, I still believe we have value with the road underdog Liberty.  I know the Liberty are on short rest but that have proven well conditioned and under estimated in this spot recently as they have cashed 6 of their L/7 with 1 days rest. 

Liberty are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Phoenix.

Play on the NY Liberty to cover 

The Dream enter this game as still be very under rated and have been money in the bank of late when playing on the road cashing 10 of their L/14 opportunities and are once again a value line call here vs a Minnesota team that my power rankings suggest they matchup well against.

WNBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after going over the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going under the total by 42 or more points total in their last seven games are 5-25 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover 

 The Wings have not beaten the  Minnesota Lynx since relocating from Tulsa after the 2015 season, losing all 10 meetings . They have lost 12 straight to the Lynx since an 86-78 victory June 21, 2015, but the last four defeats have all been by single digits and Im betting we have another close one today with the points eventually proving to be golden.

Lynx are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a straight up win.Lynx are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Lynx are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.Wings are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.Wings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

Play on the Dallas Wings 

The Fever (5-8) are trying to salvage a split of this two-game swing out west after losing 91-69 at Phoenix on Friday night, their worst defeat of the season and Im betting they now bounce back and are much more competitive after that sleepy effort. According to my power rankings this Fever team is very under rated and I wont be swayed by the recency of that last result. Note:Turnovers continue to be a problem for Las Vegas, which ranks 11th in the 12-team league in turnovers at 16.8 per game after committing 19 on Thursday night. 

WNBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (LAS VEGAS) - averaging 45 or more rebounds/game on the season, in May, June, or July game are 9-31 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road underdogs (INDIANA) - after 3 or more consecutive losses, in May, June, or July games are 44-18 L/5 seasons for a 71% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Indiana Fever to cover 

Connecticut (9-3) still has the best record in the WNBA but is coming off a 74-73 defeat to the Dallas Wings on Wednesday night for their 2nd straight loss. Because of the recency of the Sun loss and the Mystics current 5 game win streak we now get a value line to bet into , making getting points here a prime opportunity according to my power rankings. Connecticut has won 3 straight meetings in this series and 3 of their L/4 visits to DC and get the nod here. 

Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover 

These teams are currently playing at the opposite end of the performance spectrum with the Chicago Sky looking for their third straight win on the road and in this series while the Seattle Storm trying to avoid their 3rd straight loss overall in head to head meetings with the Sky. This is a momentum play that favors the Sky to cover , especially with key Seattle  guard Jewell Loyd expected to miss with an injury. 

WNBA Road teams (CHICAGO) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in June games are 101-74 L/5 seasons for a solid 60% conversion rate. 

Play on the Chicago sky to cover 

The Aces have not been consistent early on this season, but they are very under rated and have proven how explosive they can be while, my power ranking suggest the Seattle Storm are over achieving. This WNBA market is highly inefficient and my number suggests it should be closer to -8 favoring the Aces.. thus we have value laying the lumber . 

SEATTLE is 18-37 ATS L/55 in road games after a win by 6 points or less.Hughes is 24-41 ATS versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of 40% or less in all games. 

Play on the Aces to cover 

With the Sparks Candice Parker now making here third start since returning of injury should now have gotten rid of her rustiness and Im betting we see her at the top of her game. Road underdogs (LOS ANGELES) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games and are 46-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate. 

WNBA team vs the money line (PHOENIX) - after scoring 55 points or less are 26-2 L/5 seasons for a 93% SU conversion rate.

Play on the LA Sparks to cover 

The Dream according to my power rankings are one of the most under rated teams in the WNBA, and according to numbers we have value on the this home dog line.This is Washington's first game in Atlanta since winning Game 5 of the WNBA semifinals 86-81 last September.

ATLANTA is 12-4 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (ATLANTA) - well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days, on Sunday games are 49-21 ATS L/22 seasons for a 70% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover 

 After starting their season at 0-5 the Wings have won two straight and have momentum entering this game against Bill Lambeers Las Vegas Aces. Dallas has a recent history of success in this series having won 6 straight meetings overall and the L/3 here in Vegas and have enough talent to keep this game closer than the spread the linesmakers have placed on it might indicate. 

WNBA Road teams (DALLAS) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in June games are 101-65 ATS L/5 seasons for a 61% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (LAS VEGAS) - averaging 45 or more rebounds/game on the season, in May, June, or July games are 8-31 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Dallas Wings to cover 

 According to my power rankings the Atlanta Dream are much better than their record might indicate and they offer us value on the line here this evening vs the Sun.   The Dream did beat the Fever last time out, and have momentum entering this game, and Im betting they wont be easy outs even though they continue to adjust without star Angel McCoughtry out of the lineup.

Atlanta has won and covered 2 of their L/3 visits here against the Sun.

WNBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CONNECTICUT) - averaging 45 or more rebounds/game on the season, in May, June, or July games are 8-30 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 79% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CONNECTICUT) - dominant rebounding team - outrebounding opponents by 5+ per game, in May, June, or July games are 9-29 ATS L/22 seasons for a go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover 

Washington looked explosive and dominating when they opened a stretch of four consecutive road contests with a conclusive 81-52 victory at Los Angeles on Tuesday. I know their hosts the Aces have won 2 straight, but my power ranking suggest they will have their hands full of a confident team playing with immediate momentum. 

WNBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - good team - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more in 3 straight games are 32-10 ATS L/22 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Mystics  to cover 

Connecticut, which has won five straight overall, is trying to break the franchise record of 11 consecutive home victories originally established from Sept. 19, 2004-July 28, 2005 and Im betting they get it as well as the all important cover.

SEATTLE is 2-11 ATS  off an upset win as an underdog over the last 3 seasons. (Which happened last time out)

WNBA Home favorites (CONNECTICUT) - explosive offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are 30-9 L/22 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road underdogs (SEATTLE) - good offensive team - scoring 73+ points/game on the season, after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are 15-42 L/22 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover 

Still without injured star Angel McCoughtry, Atlanta's averaging just 69.0 points -   shooting a league-worst 36.6 percent. The Dream also allowed at least 82 points in each of their first three losses before falling 65-59 to Connecticut on Sunday and are fade material in their current form.Dallas is struggling to the franchise's worst start since relocating to the Dallas 0-5  in 2016, the Wings have been hit hard by injuries , but still have enough guns to chase their first win and more importantly get us the cover. Dallas has won the L/3 meetings here and gets the nod again to cover.

Play on the Dallas Wings to cover 

New York (2-4) was finally able to halt a losing stretch that reached 17 games with an 88-78 home victory over Las Vegas on Sunday. (Vegas has lost 3 of their L/4)The Liberty held the Aces (2-3) to 35.4 percent shooting en route to their a win and followed that up with a victory vs Minnesota, and Im betting they are competitive here again, behind super star Tina Charles. 

LAS VEGAS is 0-6 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons

Home favorites of 10 or more points (LAS VEGAS) - averaging 45 or more rebounds/game on the season, in May, June, or July games are 30-7 ATS L/22 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Liberty to cover 

 Both these teams won their last games out, with Chicago taking out Seattle, and Washington clobbering Atlanta by DDs. To many points here considering the matchup stats , which gives us value taking points.

WNBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (WASHINGTON) - after a game where they covered the spread, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 10-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites (WASHINGTON) - off a home win, in June games are 12-35 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Chicago Sky to cover 

These teams took part in a hard fought opener for both teams back in NY with the Fever squeezing out a 1 point win on the last shot of the game by a 81-80 score vs a stunned Liberty team. Now in a revenge mode Im betting on the Liberty getting us the cover between two evenly matched sides.

NYL have won their L/3 visits to Indiana SU.

WNBA Road teams (NEW YORK) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 12+ losses in last 15 games are 27-6 ATS L/22 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road teams (NEW YORK) - after 1 or more consecutive losses, first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 10+ losses in last 12 games are 24-5 ATS L/5 seasons for a 83% conversion rate! 

Take the points with the NY Liberty to cover 

Health issues within the team and coaching staff are expected to make the Seattle Storm's defense of their WNBA title much more difficult and makes them weak home dogs here as well vs the Phoenix Mercury. I know the Mercury are banged up as well but Phoenix, , still has two of the league's top players on the floor and prepared  to go in superstar Brittney Griner (20.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 2.6 blocks per game) and DeWanna Bonner (17.3 ppg, 7.2 rpg). The Mercury also took versatile Stanford star Alanna Smith in the first round of last month's draft. Note: PHOENIX is 16-5 ATS  in road games over the last 2 seasons. 

WNBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (SEATTLE) - good free throw shooting team from last season - made 76% or more of their free throws are 5-20 L/25 seasons for go against 80% conversion rate with a the average ppg diff clicking in at 7.7 ppg.

Play on the Phoenix Mercury to cover

The smell of desperation is in the air. Washington down 2-0 must win here tonight or be eliminated by Seattle. Their star Delle Donne has been hampered by a knee injury, but the Mystics have tried to makeup for her  sudden offensive inadequacies by playing a physical brand of basketball that had them take the Storm down to the wire in game 2. Now with their season on the line and backs up against the wall, Im betting they claw to a victory here vs a Seattle side that has lost 3 of their L/4 road games SU.

Washington has won and covered 3 of the L/4 meetings here in DC. 

WNBA Favorites (WASHINGTON) - revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 75 or more points, with a winning record on the season are 36-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Washington Mystics to cover 

WNBA Finals - Best of 5 - Game 1

According to my power rankings the Seattle Storm are the superior team, and a -5 point home line is 2 points short of where it should be according to my numbers based on home court advantage and a eastern team travelling west. Also Washingtons Delle Donne is less than 100% as he suffers through a knee injury.n the first two games of the playoffs, she averaged 29.5 points and 13.5 rebounds on 48.5 percent shooting. In two games after returning from the injury, she put up 14.5 points and 10.5 boards, while shooting just 39.2 percent. Without her Im betting they can't keep up offensively. Also a lot of emotion went into their dramatic game 5 win vs the Dream, and now a huge letdown is to be expected, even more so than the Storm could experience.

WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. 

SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS  versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game this season.

WASHINGTON is 0-7 ATS  in road games off a road win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.

WASHINGTON is 3-19 ATS  after 3 straight games with 45 or more rebounds since 1997. 

WNBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (SEATTLE) - after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game against opponent after scoring 80 points or more are 32-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Seattle Storm to cover 

WNBA Playoffs - Semifinals - Best of 5 - Game 3 - SEA leads 2-0

These teams played hard fought closely contested affairs back in Seattle in game 1 and game 2 and the Mercury could still not find a way to win , and Im betting on nothing changing , the superior team Seattle gets the cheese again on the road where they have won 13 of their 17 games this season.


SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS in road games after allowing 80 points or more this season.PHOENIX is 2-8 ATS in home games after allowing 80 points or more this season. (Seattle won 91-87 in OT last time out )

SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS in road games vs. excellent 3 point shooting teams - making 36% or more of their attempts after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons.

WNBA team vs the money line (SEATTLE) - a very good team (+7 PPG or more differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after scoring 80 points or more in 3 straight games are 41-9 L/21 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind. 

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - hot team - having won 20 or more of their last 25 games, playing with 2 days rest are 23-4 SU L/21 seasons for a 85% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Seattle Storm to cove

WNBA Playoffs - Semifinals - Best of 5 - Game 2 - SEA leads 1-0

Seattle won the first game of this series, but did not cover. The Mercury gave it their all and left everything on the floor in game 1, and still fell short. Tonight Im betting they get lit up as they play on the road on tired legs.

SEATTLE is 11-1 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread this season. 

SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS versus poor defensive teams - allowing 77+ points/game after 15+ games this season.SEATTLE is 11-2 ATS versus teams who average 7 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games this season. 

Mercury are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Semi-Finals games.Storm are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Storm are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Tuesday games.

Storm are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.Storm are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.Storm are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.

Home favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - a very good team (7 or more PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after a game where both teams scored 75 points or more are 34-2 L/21 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 10.2 ppg.

Play on the Seattle Storm to cover 

WNBA Playoffs - Semifinals - Best of 5 - Game 1

The Dreams record speaks for itself but own power rankings make the Mystics the better team, and my choice here today.

ATLANTA is 2-10 ATS after playing a game as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons. WASHINGTON is 12-4 ATS  after a non-conference game this season.Thibault is 21-8 ATS in road games after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite in all games he has coached since 1997.

WNBA Road favorites (WASHINGTON) - up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season, after a game where a team made 50% of their shots or better are 107-56 ATS L/21 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

WNBA team vs the money line (WASHINGTON) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 70 points or more in 3 straight games are 61-23 SU L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Washington Mystics to cover 

These two teams despite of contrasting styles matchup very evenly, as was the case last time these teams played here in Washington on Aug 17, as the Mystics squeaked by the Sparks 69-67. Im betting on another close game here today and for the Sparks to cover the number again.

LOS ANGELES is 8-0 ATS versus excellent ball handling teams - committing 12 or less turnovers/game over the last 2 season.LOS ANGELES is 7-0 ATS revenging a close loss versus opponent by 3 points or less over the last 3 seasons. 

LOS ANGELES is 8-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons and a perfect 6-0 ATS L/6 visits to DC.

Play on the LA Sparks to cover    

 Aces close out their first season since moving from San Antonio against the Atlanta Dream on Sunday in their finale at Mandalay Bay Events Center. they just missed  play off spot, this season, after losing last time out to Dallas who ended up clinching the final play off spot. QUOTE:"We played pretty good basketball. So did they," Aces coach Bill Laimbeer told the Las Vegas Review-Journal after the Aces lost to the Wings, allowing Dallas to clinch the eighth and final playoff spot Friday night. I'm betting Lamber will emphasize finishing the season strong, and I expect to see the Aces to play hard here today vs a team that despite of wanting to get a victory to secure a better play off seeding , still has to balance the fact that staying healthy is of also paramount importance, which may effect their ability to be physical. 

LAS VEGAS is 22-11 ATS against Eastern conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Aces 81.2 Opp 82.1

WNBA team vs the money line (LAS VEGAS) - explosive offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season, after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half 66-15 SU L/5 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

WNBA team (ATLANTA) - decent defensive team (40.5-43.5%) against a poor defensive team (43.5-46%) after 15+ games, after 2 straight games making 8 or more 3 point shots are just 12-33 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Vegas Aces to cover 

The Sparks and Mystics go head to head Friday at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., with more at stake for Washington than Los Angeles. The Mystics have won seven straight and are one game behind the second-place Atlanta Dream with two games left.The Dream have two games left as well, beginning on Friday against league-leading Seattle at home. On Sunday, Atlanta visits Las Vegas s, who are also fighting for the eighth and final playoff spot.

The top two seeds receive double-byes in the playoffs, so there's plenty of pressure on the Mystics to notch a win here and I expect they come on fire and very motivated to get a victory.

LOS ANGELES is 2-11 ATS ( versus teams who attempt 16 or more 3 point shots/game on the season after 15+ games this season. WASHINGTON is 9-2 ATS vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 3+ per game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons

Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team after 15 or more games are 24-3 ATS L/21 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 12.2 ppg. 

Play on Washington to cover

The Liberty  were on the road Tuesday night and lost to the Los Angeles Sparks 74-66 for their 10th straight loss, but it must be noted that NEW YORK is 13-4 ATSL/17 in road games off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog.

Tonight Bill Lambeers Vegas Aces are in my opinion being over rated , considering they have lost 4 of their L/5 SU/ATS with their only win coming against lowly Indiana last time out. With the pressure of a play off spot looming in the back ground for this young team, the pressure could be to much for them, and I''m betting this 12 point chalk line thats been attached to them is out of whack and does not truly coordinate to the matchup discrepancies. 

Lambeer is 23-44 ATS as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points in all games he has coached since 1997.

LAS VEGAS is 0-7 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive unders over the last 3 seasons.NEW YORK is 13-4 ATS  in road games off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog

WNBA Road underdogs (NEW YORK) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins are 50-20 L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Liberty to cover 

On Sunday, after the Wings lost their eighth straight game and barely holding onto the eighth and final spot, team president/general manager Greg Bibb fired coach Fred Williams and replaced him for the rest of the season with assistant Taj McWilliams-Franklin. These types of situations usually ignite a team , at least temporarily. I know the Wings are without their leading scorer right now  Liz Cambage, and Connecticut has been playing strong hoops of late winning 6 of their L/7, but because of the lack of being able to pace themselves correctly have   been streaky this season, and with this being the Suns 4th game in a week, they  could easily find themselves in a letdown situation and running on fumes. With that that said, door is wide open for a Dallas cover here based on motivation factors alone.

CONNECTICUT is 2-11 ATS  after 2 straight games attempting 70 or more shots this season.CONNECTICUT is 1-9 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in 5 straight games this season.

WNBA Road underdogs (DALLAS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins are 52-19 ATS for a 73% conversion rate last  5 seasons.

Play on the Dallas Wings to cover 

The Mercury (17-14), who are in seventh place, have a shot at climbing as high as No. 4, where the Los Angeles Sparks (18-12) are currently ranked. Needles to say thesis an important game for the Mercury and I'm betting they come out here on fore and take advantage of exhausted LA team playing their 3rd game in 5 days. Add to that the added incentive of the Mercury to get revenge here for two previous losses to the Sparks this Eason. Note: WNBA Favorites (PHOENIX) - revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 75 or more points, with a winning record on the season are 33-10 ATS L/5 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

LOS ANGELES is 2-8 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 5 days this season

The Mercury blew out Indiana last time out by 20 points, which is a good omen for us here this evening, as Phoenix  HC Brondello is 7-0 ATS  in home games after a blowout win by 20 points or more as the coach of PHOENIX.

PHOENIX is 29-8 ATS L/37 versus teams who average 37 or less rebounds/game on the season after 15+ games.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) - tired team - playing their 3rd game in 5 days, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 19-48 L/5 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Phoenix Mercury to cover 

The defending WNBA champion have not played with a lot of emotion or motivation this season, and lookalike they are pacing themselves for the bigger prize. With Minnesota still needing some wins to clinch a playoff spot, this veteran laden group Im betting will take nothing for granted and be prepared to take down the leagues currently top ranked team Seattle here tonight at home. Minnesota is a perfect 4-0 SU here and nothing Im betting changes tonight as the Lynx bring out their A game and send a message to the Storm that their championship banner won't be easily snatched away from them. 

WNBA team vs the money line (SEATTLE) - after a road game where both teams score 75 or more points, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games are 19-31 L/5 seasons for a go against 62% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Lynx to cover

The Atlanta Dream lost their 2nd leading scorer McCoughtry for the season with torn ligaments in her left knee Thursday. Even though the Dream responded with two victories , I'm betting it will eventually catch up to them, quite possibly today, vs a team that I'm betting they will be less than inspired to play against. I know the Liberty go against a side that has won 13 of their L/14 games, but that just means they will be primed and motivated to pull off the upset. The Liberty proved they can hang with good teams especially at home where last time out they lost 82-81 home to the Sparks. Considering the Dream are on tired legs playing their 4th game in a week its not a far reach taking points here today with the home dog. Note: WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - tired team - playing their 3rd game in 5 days, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are just 19-48 L/5 seasons with a 4.6 ppg differential, qualifying on a ATS perimeter.

ATLANTA is 4-16 ATS L/20 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points .NEW YORK is 11-2 ATS after playing a game as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 6-15 ATS in road games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons andi s 5-15 ATS  versus struggling teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.

NY Liberty are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

Play on the NY Liberty to cover  

Indiana is 3-3 in their L/6 , and showing signs of being competitive. they did notch a recent win against a very good LA Sparks team, and also beat Dallas and went into NY and took out the Liberty straight up as dogs. I know Indiana does not inspire most bettors, but at around 12 points there is value taking them as underdogs here, as Phoenix has really been struggling of late, losing 9 of their L/11 overall SU, and are off a gruelling and heart breaking loss to the Washington Mystics last time out (103-98) With this being the Mercury's 3rd game in 4 nights, I'm betting their tired legs and  damaged emotional well being, will play a part in failing to cover vs a side  playing with nothing to lose. Unlike the Mercury who need wins to try to salvage a play off spot. I do know that the Mercury handled the Fever on two previous occasions this season, but here at home they have lost 2 of the L/3 meetings between these teams .

PHOENIX is 0-8 ATS in home games after a game where both teams scored 75 points or more this season which happened in their last  game vs Washington (103-98).PHOENIX is 0-9 ATS in home games after allowing 75 points or more this season.PHOENIX is 1-7 ATS in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams - making 76% or more  of their attempts this season.

Play on the Indiana Fever to cover 

The LA Sparks enter this game on tired legs as they play. their 4th game in a week, their 2nd straight road game after a gruelling come from behind win vs the NY Liberty last night. I'm betting despite of winning 3 straight games, that the Sparks might be to tired to deal with a Atlanta team that has lost only once in their L/12 trips to the hardwood. The Dream might of had some detractors earlier on this season, but the way their playing , two way ball at the moment they are proving their naysayers wrong and are proving to be a  difficult team to beat down the stretch to the post season. 

Sparks are 0-9 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.

Sparks are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 0 days rest.Dream are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. Western Conference.Dream are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Sparks are 4-17 ATS in the last 21 meetings.Sparks are 1-7 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Atlanta.

The teams have split their two games so far this season ,  with both being played played in Los Angeles ,with the Sparks notching a  72-64 on June 12 and Atlanta firing back with  a 81-71 win  17 days ago.

WNBA Home favorites (ATLANTA) - explosive offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are 28-9 ATS L/21seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover

Sun enter this game  on a four-game winning streak all by DDs  that has helped them  to a No. 5 rankings in the WNBA standings. The way they are currently playing Im betting they Weill be hard to stop vs a defensively deficient Dallas Wings team that has lost 5 straight games. Connecticut beat Dallas here on July 22 by DDs, 92-75, and now are just 2 point favs. giving us value based on my projections. 

DALLAS is 1-10 ATS revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a home favorite over the last 3 seasons and is 2-11 ATS revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite .

CONNECTICUT is 16-3 ATS L/19  in road games after 2 straight games with 20 or more assists.

WNBA team vs the money line (CONNECTICUT) - explosive offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season, after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half are 61-14 L5 seasons and 13-1 this season. 

Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover 

The Las Vegas Aces arrived in Connecticut for Sunday's game against the Sun amid a storm of controversy after they canceled Friday night's game in Washington. They canceled because of what they though there safety concerns after being stuck in a plane for 25 hrs. QUOTE: Given the travel issues we faced over the past two days -- 25-plus hours spent in airports and airplanes, in cramped quarters and having not slept in a bed since Wednesday night -- and after consulting with our Union, and medical professionals, we concluded that playing tonight's game would put us at too great a risk for injury," the Aces said in a statement. The Aces now precariously prepare to play a Connecticut team ramping in to top form and looking as strong as they did earlier this season after 3 consecutive DD wins. Earlier this season Connecticut won a 101-65 lopsided decision vs the Aces at home, and then were upset in the rematch 94-90 in Vegas. Im betting the Sun come out focused and ready to reap revenge for that last loss as they also focus on keeping their momentum alive heading towards the playoffs. 

Lay the points with Connecticut to cover 

After a red hot start that saw them go 14-5 record, the Mercury (15-12) have been highly inconsistent since losing power forward Sancho Lyttle to a season-ending knee injury June 30. However, this is still a good veteran laden Mercury side that must not be underestimated vs a young group in Las Vegas . Adjustments are being made and their leader and future Hallof Famer, Jamie Taurasi feels this team can get back on track. QUOTE:  "By this time of the season, we should have everything figured out," Taurasi told the Arizona Republic. "Now it's about application. You want to come and put it to work because what things work, what don't work, how to approach things. And we know when we don't come with the right approach, what's most likely to happen. Nothing is going to be a surprise anymore. END QUOTE:Taurasi has been stellar in her three games against the Aces this season, scoring 25, 28 and 33 points. Las Vegas also has not been able to stop Griner, who is averaging 20.7 points and 11 boards per game against the Aces this season. I'm betting these two star players will the difference maker today in Vegas.PHOENIX is 8-1 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more this season.LAS VEGAS is 12-27 L/39 ATS  in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Phoenix is 8-1 L/9 meetings and have won their L/4 games as visitors in this series.

Play on Phoenix to cover 

The Minnesota Lynx are off a game where they were very focused in beating a very good Phoenix Mercury team on the road, showing their championship pedigree in the process . But now I doubt we will see the Lynx at their best vs a less than consistent NY Liberty side thus giving us value with a underdog line. Minnesota for the most part have proven themselves as week chalk of late failing to cover 10 of their L/14 as favs of 7 points or more and have failed to cover 4 of their L/5 as DD favs as they are here today. 

NEW YORK is 9-2 ATS  after playing a game as a home underdog over the last 2 seasons.MINNESOTA is 2-8 ATS after a game where a team made 80% of their free throws or better this season.MINNESOTA is 10-20 ATS  after a game where they covered the spread over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA team vs the money line/SU (NEW YORK) - revenging a road loss versus opponent by 10 points or more against opponent off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog are 21-5 L/5 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road underdogs (NEW YORK) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games are 50-19 ATS L/5 seasons for a 73% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

WNBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - revenging a loss versus opponent against opponent off an upset win as an underdog are 26-6 ATS L/21 seasons for a 81% conversion rate for bettors. 

WNBA Road underdogs of 10 or more points (NEW YORK) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, playing with 2 days rest are 31-12 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the NY Liberty to cover 

The teams top team (Seattle) is obviously much better than the leagues worst team ( Indiana) However, the  Indiana Fever have played their best against the top teams in the WNBA this season.The Fever (3-22) have only three wins in 2018, but they've come against teams currently ranked No. 2 (Atlanta), No. 5 (Minnesota) and, most recently, No. 3 (Los Angeles on Friday) in the WNBA standings and tonight I'm betting on them giving a tired Seattle side a run for their money. It must be noted that the Storm , lost their first road game in a month last time out to a very good Atlanta side and exhibited some exhaustion in that tilt, something I'm betting continues here. 

SEATTLE is 4-12 ATS  after 3 straight games where they committed 14 or less turnovers over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line /SU (SEATTLE) - tired team - playing their 3rd game in 5 days, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 15-46 SU L/5 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 76% for bettors.

WNBA Underdogs (INDIANA) - after failing to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread, terrible team, winning 25% or less of their games on the season are 35-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 69% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Fever to cover 

Vegas is a young team, and despite of being talented young teams sometimes lose their concentration and show a lack of consistency especially after a big upset win like they pulled last time out vs the Phoenix Mercury. Today vs a 3-21  Indiana team I'm betting the Aces in a letdown situation overlook their opponent, and possibly get upset, and more importantly as far as we are concerned we get a cover with Indiana.

LAS VEGAS is 6-19 ATS  L/25 off an upset win over a division rival as an underdog of 6 or more

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (LAS VEGAS) - off an road win where they scored 85 or more points, with a losing record after 15 or more games are just 8 -19 L/21 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Fever to cover 

Atlanta might be a dog here today vs Seattle but they are more than capable of pulling of the upset. This is Seattles third straight road game and are off a underdog upset vs the Connecticut Sun that time out, and susceptible to a letdown on tired legs. Meanwhile, Atlanta just might be the real deal, as they enter this game on a 7 game win streak, and have only one loss in their L/8 , and that was on the road to his same Seattle team team 95-86. With revenge on board Im betting the Dream coming out of this with a win, and more importantly as we are concerned a cover. 

Atlanta is 7-2 ATS L/9 meetings overall.

SEATTLE is 0-6 ATS off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog over the last 2 seasonsSEATTLE is 1-8 ATS off an upset win as an underdog ATLANTA is 25-12 ATS  as a home underdog of 6 points or less since 1997. ATLANTA is 7-1 ATS in July games this season. ATLANTA is 61-33 ATS  after 3 consecutive division games since 1997. ATLANTA is 20-6 ATS  in home games off a home win against a division rival since 1997. ATLANTA is 11-3 ATS  after scoring 70 points or more in 3 straight games this season. ATLANTA is 8-2 ATS after scoring 70 points or more in 5 straight games this season. ATLANTA is 8-1 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games this seasonATLANTA is 6-0 ATS  after 2 or more consecutive wins this season. 

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - tired team - playing their 3rd game in 5 days, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 15- 45 L/5 season for go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover 

Two of the top teams in the WNBA enter this game against each other in what must be considered slumps. The Mercury have lost 4 of their L/5 and the Lynx have lost 4 of their L/7 with no back to back wins since early July. Both are desperate to get back on track, but I'm betting home court advantage for the Mercury will be the difference maker.

PHOENIX is 13-4 ATS  in home games off a close home loss by 3 points or less . Which happened last time out in a 85-82 loss to Vegas.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite are 31-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road underdogs (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 27-7 ATS L/5 seasons for a 80% conversion rate.

Play on the Phoenix Mercury to cover 

Seattle is a top tier team, and Connecticut are also a team that needs to be respected especially on their own home court . Connecticut started the season 7-1 but has gone 5-10 since, the last two losses coming in stunning fashion, thanks to their lack of ability to pace themselves and just plain bad luck.The Sun lost to the New York Liberty on a buzzer-beating 3-pointer by Shavonte Zellous. Then, after two wins, Connecticut set up for the last shot against the Dream with the score tied. But the Sun turned the ball over, and Atlanta's Tiffany Hayes hit a Hail Mary half-court shot for the 86-83 victory. The indignity of those types of losses Im betting will ignite this Sun team into fervently  seeking redemption against one of the leagues top teams. The Sun also have revenge on board for previous losses to the Storm, so II big time effort is something I'm banking on by the host side. 

I know its hard going against a team like the Storm , especially after they dismantled Chicago last time out, but a 101-83 count, but a letdown situation is not out of ordinary after a performance like that. Note: SEATTLE is 1-8 ATS  off an road win where they scored 85 or more points over the last 2 seasons and  is 3-11 ATS  after a blowout win by 15 points or more over the last 3 seasons. 

Favorites (CONNECTICUT) - revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 75 or more points, with a winning record on the season are 30-9 ATS for a 77% conversion rate for bettors. 

WNBA Home teams SU (CONNECTICUT) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 25-5 L/5 seasons for a 83% SU conversion rate.

WNBA Home favorites SU (CONNECTICUT) - off an upset loss to a division rival as a home favorite are 31-3 L/5 seasons for a 91% conversion rate for bettors winning by an average of 8.1ppg. 

Play on the Connecticut Sun to cover 

The Atlanta Dream enter this game playing their best hoops of the season, and  coming off a dominating 98-74 victory over Indiana on Friday in which seven Dream players scored 10 or more points in a game for the first time in franchise history.Atlanta has scored 90.6 points per game in the first five outings this month and are dangerous in their current form, and are my choice today vs the Washington Mystics. ( TheMystics won last time out but lost their two games and one to Atlanta previous to that and have looked unstable at times and unstoppable on other occasions, today Im expecting they will just be out played by a confident side. QUOTE:"When you get on a roll, it is the beauty of sports in general, confidence is a beautiful thing," Atlanta coach Nicki Collen said. "When the person next to you is making shots and you get a little cushion, it becomes a little easy to step up and take the next shot. There is not a ton of pressure when you are playing with a 12-point lead to take an open 3 and make it 15." END QUOTE.

Atlanta clobbered the Mystics 106-89 as road dogs on July 11 , last week, and matchup very well vs the Dream. Note: WASHINGTON is 5-13 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

ATLANTA is 8-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

WNBA Road underdogs (WASHINGTON) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 6-26 ATS L/5 seasons for a 81% go against conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more are 28-1 L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate for bettors. 

Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover 

Indiana (2-18) is back on the road after losing 87-65 to defending league champion Minnesota on Wednesday in Indianapolis and are now lacking a lot of confidence as their season seems lost. Meanwhile, the the Dream after manufacturing their best game of the year in their most recent trip the hardwood  clobbering Washington 106-89 on the road are now feeling pretty good about themselves and I now expect them to ride that momentum into this tilt. Atlanta set a WNBA record when four players notched 20-plus and recorded at least five assists in a win.Fever are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall. Note: ATLANTA is 7-0 ATS  in home games off a win by 10 points or more as an underdog since 1997 with the Average score clicking in at Atlanta 87 opp 74.4.

WNBA Underdogs vs the money line (INDIANA) - off a home loss by 10 points or more, a terrible team (25% or less) playing a team with a winning record after 15 or more games are 2-28 L/21 seasons losing by an average of 16.4 ppg. 

WNBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (INDIANA) - after 3 or more consecutive unders, poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game are 18-48 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Atlanta to cover 

The Indiana Fever have two wins this season and one of them came  vs today's guests the Minnesota Lynx last week on July 3. The linesmakers   are now expecting the defending champion lynx to come out and get their revenge with a conclusive DD victory. But I' betting a win by the Lynx won't come as easily as some might think. The lynx scored just 59 points in their loss to the fever and despite of bouncing back in their next game they followed that up with another clunker and scored just 63 points in a another  loss to Dallas by a 90-63 count. It' obvious the Lynx are struggling right now , and have shown a lack of consistency since early in the season. I know Fever may not inspire bettors but this home under dog line does have value attached to it. 

MINNESOTA is 4-11 ATS  after playing a game as favorite this season. MINNESOTA is 18-33 ATS L51 in road games vs. excellent free throw shooting teams - making 80% or more of their shots after 15+ games.

Favorites (MINNESOTA) - revenging a straight up loss versus opponent as a favorite against opponent off a road loss are 11-37 last  5 seasons for a go against 77% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA team vs the money line (MINNESOTA) - revenging a loss where team scored less than 60 points, off a road loss ARE just 7-26 L5 seasons for a go against 79%conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana  Fever to cover

I'm a little surprised at how erratic the LA Sparks have played of late, as they have lost 5 of their L/6 games and look to be in a tailspin defensively, allowing 81 or more points in 5 of their L/7, where they have in the recent past played their best hoops. In the Sparks current form, it won't be a hard decision to fade them against a Seattle side with a killer instinct and currently playing their best basketball of the season as is evident by having registered 5 straight wins and 7 victories in their L/8 trips to the court. Seattle is a perfect 4-0 SU/ATS L/4 meetings here at home in this series.

LOS ANGELES is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when they allow 83 or more points in a game this season

WNBA Road underdogs (LOS ANGELES) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games are 8-30 ATS L/21 seasons for go against  79% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - a very good team (+7 or more PPG diff.) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG diff.) after 15 or more games, after a game where both teams scored 75 points or more are 32-1 L/21 season for a 97% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - off a home win, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games are 29-2 for a 93% conversion rate L/5 seasons.

Play on the Seattle Storm to cover 

Phoenix (14-5) is the real deal behind the clutch play of Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner, and I'm betting these two stars will own the Atlanta Dream( 8-9) this afternoon at the McCamish Pavilion on the campus of Georgia Tech University. Phoenix won the first game between the two teams 78-71 on June 3 in Atlanta and a repeat performance is high probability event today. 

PHOENIX is 6-0 ATS in road games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game after 15+ games over the last 3 seasons. PHOENIX is 7-0 ATS in road games after scoring 80 points or more this season. PHOENIX is 6-0 ATS in road games after a game where they covered the spread this season.

ATLANTA is 6-17 ATS after allowing 75 points or more in 4 straight games over the last 3 seasons. 

WNBA Home underdogs (ATLANTA) - after scoring 70 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 77 points or more in 4 straight games are 23-53 ATS L/21 seasons for a 70% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Phoenix Mercury to cover

Los Angeles is a top tier side that has struggled a bit  of late as they have dropped two straight and four of their past five games. The Sparks, however, did  did look good against  defending champs Minnesota, last time out, but  the  Lynx were on a mission, after scoring just 59 points in a previous loss , and the Sparks were not able to match their intensity and lost . Tonight, I expect a big bounce back effort by the Sparks vs the Mystics with behind their league leading  scoring defense that allows  76.5 points a contest as will the Sparks ability to be physical vs a side that struggles under the glass, as is evident by Washington ranking   11th in the league in rebounding (31.9 boards per game). Don't get me wrong the Mystics are a fine team, but LAs will to get back on track will be of paramount importance here as Candace Parker, Nneka Ogwumike and company roll.  LA has dominated this series , over the last few seasons garnering a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS mark in the L/7 meetings. Im betting on these trends to stay intact .

LOS ANGELES is 7-0 ATS L/7 in home games off a road loss over the last few seasons winning by DD averages. LOS ANGELES is 6-0 ATS in home games off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival over the last few seasons.

WASHINGTON is 2-10 ATS  after playing 5 consecutive games as favorite since in their inception to the WNBA.WASHINGTON is 4-13 ATS  revenging a loss where opponent scored 85 or more points over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LOS ANGELES) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against opponent after having won 3 of their last 4 games are 52-16 ATS L/21 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) - excellent shooting team (46% or better) against an poor defensive team (43.5-46%), hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% or better of their shots are 28-2 L/5 seasons for a 93% conversion rate winning by a an average of 10.4 ppg.

Play on the LA Sparks to cover 

The LA Sparks despite of being a top tier team, have been struggling of late, losing 3 of their L/4 overall. It must be noted that WNBA Road underdogs vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) - after having lost 3 of their last 4 games, good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games, after 15 or more games are a long term bad bet losing 34 of their L/38 games SU dating back 21 seasons for a go against 90% conversion rate for bettors with the average loss coming by 10 ppg which qualifies on this line.

WNBA Road underdogs (LOS ANGELES) - after having lost 2 of their last 3 games, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team are 6-25 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 81% conversion rate for bettors.

Meanwhile, Minnesota the defending league champs had a 7 game win streak abruptly end last time out, to the lowly Indiana Fever who now have just two wins on the season, by a 71-59 count as -14 point chalk.  That was embarrassing to say the least for the Lynx and their lowest offensive out put since the 2013 season. Before the loss, Minnesota was averaging 85.6 points per game during the team’s seven-game win streaking I'm betting they come out here like gangbusters looking for redemption. 

MINNESOTA is 31-16 ATS  after a game where they failed to cover the spread over the last 3 seasons.

WNBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team after 15 or more games are 23-3 ATS L/21 seasons for a 89% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Lynx to cover 

Make no mistake that the Connecticut Sun are one of the premier teams in this league, but recently have had to deal with an exhausting early season schedule, that effected their play  to an extent, which included playing 4 games in 7 days against Washington , Phoenix, Seattle, and the defending champion Minnesota Lynx.  Now with some much needed rest I expect the Sun will primed fora pay back effort vs another strong side ,their hosts the Seattle Storm who are now playing their 4th game of the week, and on tired legs . With that said, Im betting on the Sun getting us the cover here tonight. 

Miller is 20-9 ATS in road games when playing only their 2nd game in 5 days as the coach of CONNECTICUT.

SEATTLE is 9-20 ATS  versus teams who average 42 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last couple of seasons and s 8-17 ATS L/25 versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game and 2-9 ATS  versus teams who average 45 or more rebounds/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.SEATTLE is 7-17 ATS L/24 against Eastern conference opponents over the last 2 season.SEATTLE is 9-21 ATS after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games over the last 2 seasons.

WNBA team vs the money line (CONNECTICUT) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after scoring 70 points or more in 3 straight games are 52-17 L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rare for bettors.

Play on Conneciut to cover

LA played last night and lost to Seattle and are now on tired legs and susceptible to a letdown vs a young Vegas team that has surprised some opponents this season thanks to a talented coach in Lambeer and young group that is on a upward trajectory.

LAS VEGAS is 9-2 ATS off 2 consecutive losses against division rivals over the last 2 seasons and is 8-1 ATS after allowing 90 points or more over the last 2 seasons and also 13-4 ATS after a combined score of 165 points or more during the same time perimeters.

Underdogs (LAS VEGAS) - poor team - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game, after a combined score of 165 points or more are a long term profitable bet 82-42 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) - tired team - playing their 3rd game in 5 days, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games are 11-36 SU L/5 seasons for go against 76% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Las Vegas Aces to cover

The Liberty after playing a hard fought physical affair vs the Washington Mystics last night in DC  will now be on tired legs and also in a huge emotional letdown spot after losing 80-77 on a last second downtown shot. I know the Chicago Sky may not inspire bettors with their overall record, but they have won 2 straight, and I'm betting won't be easy outs for a NY team that has lost 7 of their L/8 overall and have proven to be bad bets at home vs perceived lower teams with below .500 records like the Sky as the following trends demonstrate.

WNBA (CHICAGO) - with a losing record, in June games are  61-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Chicago Sky to cover

I know the Fever don't inspire bettors, but they are capable of covering here vs a exhausted Connecticut team off a loss to the Mystics last  night .The last time the Fever visited the Sun they lost by 9 points on May 26 this season ( 86-77). CONNECTICUT is 4-15 ATS L/19 in home games when playing against a terrible team (Win Pct. 25% or worse). CONNECTICUT is 2-10 ATS L/12 as a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points .

CONNECTICUT is 1-7 ATS  versus good ball handling teams - committing  14 or less turnovers/game this season.

INDIANA is 20-8 ATS in road games revenging 2 straight losses where opponent scored 75 or more points .

WNBA Underdogs (INDIANA) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after a combined score of 165 points or more are 48-15 L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites (CONNECTICUT) - with a winning record on the season playing a losing team, in June games `13-32 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 71% conversion rate for bettors. 

WNBAHome favorites of 10 or more points (CONNECTICUT) - averaging 45 or more rebounds/game on the season, in May, June, or July games are just 6-29 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 83% on the blind. 

WNBARoad underdogs of 10 or more points (INDIANA) - after a game where they failed to cover the spread, playing with 2 days rest are 31-9 ATS for a 78% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Indiana Fever to cover 

Phoenix enters on a two-game losing streak after enjoying a eight-game winning streak. During their winning run, the Mercury beat the Liberty 80-74 at Madison Square Garden three weeks ago, and matchup well against them. NY also lost two this past weekend,  as they lost  88-78  to the young  Las Vegas Aces on Friday. In their following game the struggling  Liberty shot just 38.3 % in a ugly  80-54 loss to the Los Angeles Sparks on Sunday and now look like fade material in their current form. Both teams are desperate to get back in the win column, but team is superior to the other, and gets my support on a short chalk line.

NEW YORK is 1-9 ATS   when playing their 3rd game in 5 days over the last 3 seasons

WNBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - after scoring 55 points or less are 4-24 L/5 seasons for a go against 86% conversion rate with the average margin loss coming by an average of 7.2 ppg which then qualifies on this spread line.

WNBA Favorites vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - after allowing 75 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after scoring 55 points or less are 35-4 SU L/21 seasons  with the average margin of victory coming by more than 10.2 ppg

Play on Phoenix to cover

Dallas is forming into top gear as was evident when they hammered the LA Sparks by a 100-72 count in their last trip to the hardwood. Meanwhile, the Storm look to be trending downward, after a loss to the young Vegas Aces last week and than had to play a top tier of defence to defeat lowly Indiana last time out. From my own perspective it just seems like Storm has lost its offensive flow, which is not a good omen for them facing a side that is starting to heat up offensively. With that said, lets lay some short lumber with the confident home side with momentum on their sides .

Storm are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games following a straight up win.

Wings are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games playing on 1 days rest.Wings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.Wings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.Wings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Sunday games.Wings are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.Wings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.Wings are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - after going under the total by more than 24 points in their previous game, on Sunday games are 8-31 SU L/21 seasons for a go against 80% conversion rate for bettors losing by an average of 7 points a game.

WNBA team vs the money line (SEATTLE) - poor defensive team - shooting pct defense of 44% or worse on the season, after a game where a team made 55% of their free throws or worse are 20-62 L/21 seasons for a 76% go against conversion rate for bettors with the average loss coming by 7.2 pig.

WNBA Underdogs vs the money line (SEATTLE) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, with a winning record on the season are a long term bad bet , on a short line as they are just 142-358 for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors with the average margin loss coming 5.2 peg.

Play on Dallas Wings to cover 

Washington owned the Chicago Sky in their last meeting on June 19 by a 88 -60 count, and are now only being asked to lay 5 points in the rematch. I know playing on the road is different than hosting, but it became painfully obvious to me that the Mystics match up extremely well vs the Sky, and another conclusive win is not out of the question and actually a viable wagering option.
Chicago has lost 8 of their L/9 overall and 5 in a row including the above mentioned loss to the Mystics and are descending quickly into the bottomless abyss of the realm of WNBA cellar dwellers.

CHICAGO is 1-11 ATS (in home games after 1 or more consecutive losses dating back to last season.
CHICAGO is 9-18 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS in home games off a road loss against a division rival over the last few seasons.


WNBA Home underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - poor defensive team - allowing 73+ points/game on the season, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more are 8-51 L/21 seasons losing by an average of 9 ppg.

WNBA Underdogs vs the money line (CHICAGO) - up-tempo team averaging 62 or more shots/game on the season, after a game where a team made 30% of their shots or worse are 9-50 L/21 seasons losing by an average of 9 ppg.

WNBA Home underdogs vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, vs. division opponents are 3-36 L/21 seasons losing by an average of 11.6 ppg.

WNBA Favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) - good shooting team - shooting 44% or better on the season against opponent after a game where a team made 30% of their shots or worse are 29-2 with the average margin of victory coming by 9.7 ppg.

Play on the Washington Mystics to cover  

Dallas has been playing well of late but is on very tired legs as they play their 4th game in 7 days and are at a disadvantage in this spot  vs a explosive Minnesota Lynx side. Meanwhile, Minnesota the defending WNBA champions after  starting their season slowly in hangover mode ,  finally came out and looked fresh against the NY Liberty last time out and pounded them by a 85-71 count . The Lynx are also well rested with this being only their 2nd game   in 10 days. This is a situation where the hungry well rested home team with superior fire power looks very much like a viable option, at anything under 11 points according to my power ranking line projections.

WNBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games against opponent after having won 3 of their last 4 games are 51-15 L/21 seasons for a 77% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

WNBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (MINNESOTA) - after having lost 5 or 6 of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 3 of their last 4 games are 35-7 ATS L/21 seasons for a 83% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Minnesota Lynx to cover

 Washington has played great at times this season, and looked completely out of sync on other occasions. They have one win in their L/5 games, vs Connecticut, and were lucky to come put of that game with a victory despite of a 30 point half time lead. Meanwhile, the Chicago Sky have lost 4 straight, but from a matchup perspective look like they could be competitive in this spot vs D.Jeckyll and M.Hyde Mystics side that are just 1-5 ATS in 6 home games this season. Also from a historical league wide data base point of view , struggling teams like Chicago have actually been long term good bets while teams like Washington have not been( See below)

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (CHICAGO) - average shooting team (40.5-43.5%) against an struggling defensive team (46% or worse) are 34-15 SU for a 70% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

WNBA Road teams (CHICAGO) - after 3 or more consecutive losses are 80-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors . WNBA Road underdogs (CHICAGO) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 or more consecutive games are 40-17 ATS L/5 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team, in June games are 7-31 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against  82% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Favorites (WASHINGTON) - after going over the total by more than 18 points in their previous game against opponent after going under the total by 24 or more points total in their last three games are 15-40 ATS L/5 seasons for a go against 73% conversion rate for bettors.

WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS versus teams who are called for 18 or less fouls/game  dating back to  last season.WASHINGTON is 12-24 ATS  versus teams who make 5 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last few seasons.WASHINGTON is 13-27 ATS  L/40 in home games after allowing 80 points or more in 2 straight games.

Play on the Chicago Sky to cover

 Bill Laimbeer's Aces , led by rookie A'ja Wilson, returns to the Mandalay Bay Events Center on the Las Vegas Strip Sunday to take on the Brittany Griner, Diana Taurasi and the 9-3 Phoenix Mercury. Vegas are coming off a road trip where they played well, despite a loss last time out, and showed progress capturing a couple of wins. Now with the confidence sky high I'm betting this young team will come out here ready to upset a hot Mercury side on a 7 game win streak. Meanwhile, the Phoenix is coming off an 89-72 home victory on Saturday night against the exhausted looking Connecticut Sun and extended its winning streak to seven games. In their only other meeting this season, the Mercury won 72-66 and I'm betting the Aces stay within the number again and get us the cover.

LAS VEGAS is 17-4 ATS after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game over the last 3 seasons. LAS VEGAS is 9-2 ATS off a road loss by 10 points or more over the last couple seasons.

Lambeer is 34-18 ATS off a loss by 10 points or more to a division rival in all games he has coached .Brondello is 13-23 ATS L/35 after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games as the coach of PHOENIX.LAS VEGAS is 15-31 ATS in home games after a game where a team made 45% of their 3 point shots or better which happened vs Connecticut yesterday.

WNBA Home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (LAS VEGAS) - good ball handling team - committing 14 or less turnovers/game, on Sunday games 29-8 ATS L/21 seasons for a 79% conversion rate on the blind.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) - good team, winning 60-75% or more of their games on the season, on Sunday games are 10-29 SU L/21 seasons for a go against SU 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Vegas to cover

The Mystics are off a enormously exhausting game vs the Connecticut Sun last time out ( 2 days ago). In the first half of that game they were explosive and jumped out to huge 30 point  lead at the half, only to run out of gas, and allow the talented and never say die Sun to get back into the game, before rallying late for the upset win. The Mystics are now in a huge letdown spot vs a very good LA Sparks team that I'm betting will take advantage of this situation today on their way to a cover on the road as short chalk.

LA is 6-0 SU/ATS L/6 in this series including 3-0 SU/ATS here in Washington.

WASHINGTON is 6-16 ATS in as an underdog over the last 2 seasons with the average defict clickingi n under 10 ppg. WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS versus teams who are called for 18 or less fouls/game over the last  few seasons. LOS ANGELES is 23-12 ATS   versus good offensive teams - scoring 77+ points/game dating back to last season. Thibault is 10-20 ATS as a home underdog as the coach of WASHINGTON ( Opp 82.7 Wash 76.7)

WNBA  team vs the money line (LOS ANGELES) - after going under the total by more than 6 points in three consecutive games, top level team, winning 75% or more of their games on the season are 23-6 SU for a 79% conversion rate last 22 seasons with the average margin of victory coming by 10,2 ppg.

Play on the LA Sparks to cover

Bill Lambeer knows the Liberty well after being the HC there for 5 seasons. I'm betting he has his young but talented Aces ready to compete here , despite of being on tired legs after a OT victory yesterday in Atlanta and 3rd game in 5 days. Note:  LAS VEGAS is 11-3 ATS when playing their 3rd game in 5 days over the last few seasons.

LAS VEGAS is 15-4 ATS   in road games after a non-conference game over the last few seasons and  is 7-0 ATS  L/7  in road games after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers  and also is 16-7 ATS L/23 against Eastern conference opponents.

NEW YORK is 1-8 ATS  in home games versus poor teams - outscored by their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last few seasons and is 3-14 ATS    in home games when playing against a team with a losing record.

WNBA Underdogs (LAS VEGAS) - below average  team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after a combined score of 165 points or more are 44-15 ATS L/5 seasons for a 75% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the Vegas Aces to cover

The LA Sparks played their best game of the season , winning a wire to wire tilt against the Chicago Sky last time out after playing their worst game of the season, against Seattle the game before that in a ugly DD loss. In the last win the Sparks played lights out , and exerted a lot of energy and could easily find themselves in a emotional letdown spot here today vs what I'm starting to believe is a strong Dream defense. I was not sold on the Dream prior to that game, and still stubbornly not completely sold on them going forward, but they did get my attention and respect when they upset the Seattle Storm right in their own back yard last time out as 8 point road dogs. Also previous to that the Dream handed a strong Connecticut Sun team their only loss of the season to this point. I now do believe that the Dream are defensively as good as advertised and in a game that expect to be physical and fairly low scoring I'm betting getting 10 points makes for a feasible wagering option.

The following trend shows a divergence of reverting back to the norm after top tier charity stripe shooting, something the Sparks just achieved. FT shooting I'm betting will be the difference here today in what myself and the linemakers believe to be a fairly low scoring tilt. LOS ANGELES is 64-94 ATS after 2 straight games making 80% of their free throws or better.

HC Agler in his L/12 in home games when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 75%) as the coach of LOS ANGELES has seen an average margin -click in at LAS 76.7 Opp 71.9. ( less than 5 points)

WNBA Home favorites of 9.5 or more points (LOS ANGELES) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in May, June, or July games are just 42-86 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate on the blind for bettors.

Play on the Atlanta Dream to cover

The game is a rematch between Phoenix (7-3) and Dallas from the season-opener on May 18 in Phoenix, won by the Mercury 86-78. Phoenix enters this game with a lot of momentum as is evident by their 5 game winning streak. It must be noted that the Mercury have top tier head on head collision with a super charged Connecticut team after this game, and I'm sure they want to go into that tilt with a winning mind set, so a look ahead scenario I'm betting will effect them positively and not in a negative way. Tonight I'm going to ride this run away freight train right through Dallas . My own power rankings suggest from a neutral court perspective that the Mercury are the superior team by 4 to 5 points, thus betting into what is essentially a pickem situation on the road does not deter me in the slightest.

PHOENIX is 16-7 ATS versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing 14 or less turnovers/game dating back to last season.PHOENIX is 8-0 ATS L/8  in road games off a win against a division rival.

DALLAS is 11-23 ATS   when playing 3 or less games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons.

WNBA Any team vs the money line (PHOENIX) - in a game involving two explosive offensive teams (76 or more  PPG), after leading their last 3 games by 5+ points at the half 41-13 SU L/5 seasons for a 76% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

WNBA Road favorites (PHOENIX) - good shooting team - shooting 44% OR BETTER on the season against opponent hot shooting team - 3 straight games making 42% OR MORE of their shots are 41-16 ATS L/21 seasons for a 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Phoenix Mercury

Las Vegas has tasted victory only once this year and was the worst team in the league in 2017 and another victory may not be out of the question tonight vs 0-8 Indiana. As the WNBA's 11th-place team last season, Indiana was swept by the 12th-place Stars (now Aces), losing the three meetings in 2017 by an average of 11.7 points per game and look like fade material again vs an under rated Aces side that despite of ugly 1-7 record has shown some life this season and competitiveness.

INDIANA is 3-11 ATS    in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last few seasons.LAS VEGAS is 16-4 ATS L/20  after allowing 45 points or more in the first half last game over the last few seasons. LAS VEGAS is 6-0 ATS   in road games after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers dating back to last season.

 WNBA Road underdogs (LAS VEGAS) - after 3 or more consecutive losses are 67-34 ATS L/5 seasons for a 66% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Las Vegas ( Late Steam)

 The Dream opened their three-game road trip with an 87-83 victory Friday night in Las Vegas against the Aces and exerted a lot of energy in that game , and looked a little wiped out late and we could see them on tired legs in this spot. Atlanta is improved, but its still early and I'm not a believer just yet. Meanwhile, the Storm are coming off an 88-63 victory at Los Angeles and are proving to be pretty good team, with a lot of explosiveness offensively and a defense that is very under rated. The Storms coach Hughes has a solid reputation as a defensive guru in his 17 years as a coach in the WNBA and something that I'm keeping in eye on for future totals wagers. For now I'm betting on the Seattle D to continue to play solidly and for their offense to light up an over rated Atlanta Dream defense that is getting far to many accolades based on a small sample size.

ATLANTA is 8-21 ATS  in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 73+ points/game over the last few seasons with the average margin loss coming by 8.6 ppg. ATLANTA is 0-7 ATS    in road games after 3 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more losing by ana average of 10.8 ppg.

WNBA Home favorites SU (SEATTLE) - a very good team (+7 or more PPG differential) against an average team (+/- 3 PPG differential), after scoring 80 points or more are 35-1 SU L/5 seasons for a 97% conversion rate with the average margin of victory coming by more than 12.5 ppg.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team are 3-22 SU 5 seasons losing  by an average of 11.7 ppg.

WNBA Home favorites (SEATTLE) - explosive offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season against opponent after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are 27-6 L/21 seasons for a 82% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road underdogs (ATLANTA) - good offensive team - scoring 73+ points/game on the season, after 2 straight wins by 6 points or less are 12-39 ATS L/21 seasons for a 77% go against conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Seattle Storm to cover

Atlanta (3-3) is an improved team, but I'm not ready to buy into them being this big road favorite, even against a young inexperienced team like Las Vegas (1-5). I respect the talent the  Aces have with the likes of Wilson and Plum and I' betting they will prove themselves more than capable of being handful for a over rated Dream team that is just 2-11 ATS  L/13  versus struggling  teams - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game over the last few seasons.

ATLANTA is 4-14 ATS L/18 as a road favorite of 3.5 to 6 points.ATLANTA is 0-6 ATS   in road games after 3 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more dating back to last season.

NBA Underdogs (LAS VEGAS) - terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game, after a combined score of 165 points or more are a bankroll expanding 40-14 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on Las Vegas to cover

Two long time rivals the Connecticut Sun and the NY Liberty go head to head today in game that offers value on the home underdog . I know the Sun have run over a lot of opponents this season on their way to 5-1 record and the Liberty are 2-3 and currently a below .500 team. However my team vs team and player vs player and systems vs system power rankings suggest that the Liberty are well suited to compete vs the explosive Sun and take advantage of a tired group playing their fourth consecutive road game in a week.  Note: The Suns looked winded in their first loss of the season, last time out in Atlanta .The Liberty are 3-1 SU/ATS L/4 at home in this series.

NEW YORK is 14-5 ATS  after playing a home game over the last couple of seasons.

WNBA team vs the money line (NEW YORK) - off an upset loss as a home favorite against opponent off a road loss 34-14 L/5 seasons for a 69% SU conversion rate for bettors on the blind. ( The Mercury upset the Liberty in their last home game)

Play on the NY Liberty to cover

Two teams both off victories vs the defending WNBA Champion Minnesota Lynx play each other this afternoon. PHOENIX is 7-0 ATS   in road games off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.Dream are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games following a straight up win.

Dream are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.

My own power ranking suggest that Phoenix is the superior side, and the early market also agrees with my assessments.

WNBA Home teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (ATLANTA) - after 2 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more in 2 straight games are 22-55 L/5 seasons for a go against  70% conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (ATLANTA) - after 2 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more against opponent after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games are 36-71 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 67% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

Play on the Phoenix Mercury to cover

Connecticut (3-0) will make its road debut after winning each of its first three games on its home court this season. Here on the road against a competitive opponent being this big a road favorite makes for viable opportunity to cash with the well rested home dog Chicago  (2-2).

Sun are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.Sky are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games playing on 3 or more days rest.Sky are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Eastern Conference.

Below are some league wide SU trends that give credence to us taking the points.

WNBA Road teams  SU (CONNECTICUT) - horrible defensive team from last season - allowed 75 or more points/game, after scoring 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 9-24 L/21 seasons for a go against 73% SU conversion rate for bettors.

WNBA Road teams  SU (CONNECTICUT) - excellent offensive team from last season - scored 75 or more points/game, after scoring 40 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games are 10-25 L/35 seasons for a go against 72% conversion rate for bettors on the blind.

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Washington and Seattle are looking pretty good at the moment, with the Storm garnering a 3-1 record and the Mystics at a perfect 4-0. Three of the Mystics 4 wins have come on the road but they have a recent history of flat road performances, and  are is 2-10 ATS  as a road underdog over the last 2 seasons losing SU by just under 10 ppg.

WASHINGTON is also  5-13 ATS   when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.   The Mystics are just 4-14 SU here in Seattle, and I'm betting on another inconsistent effort away from DC , with added problem of being banged up and  having to find a replacement options for the injured trio of

WNBA Home favorites vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - after leading in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half against opponent after a combined score of 155 points or more are 24-1 L/5 seasons for a 96% conversion rate winning by an average of 12.3 ppg.

WNBA Road underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON) - off an home win scoring 85 or more points, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 29-65 ATS L/21 seasons for a go against 69% conversion rate for bettors.

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The Liberty have started their season with a 0-2 record, after a hard fought gut wrenching loss to the defending champion Minnesota Lynx and could now easily find themselves in a letdown situation vs a under rated  2-2 Dallas Wings side  that is a capable of pulling off the SU upset. The Wings took out the Liberty and preseason action by 10 points and matched up well against them overall. These teams played last September in regular season action and the Liberty pulled off a hard fought 82-81 win and another closely contested affair according to my own matchup stats is a high probability situation that warrants backing the underdog. It must be noted that the Liberty are expected to be without three guards in Brittany Boyd (Achilles), Sugar Rodgers (sore left knee) and Epiphanny Prince (concussion) .

WNBA Home teams vs. the money line (NEW YORK) - off a cover where the team lost the game straight up as an underdog, well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days are 16-33 L/5 seasons with the average margin deficit coming by 3 ppg.

WNBA Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (DALLAS) - after allowing 70 points or more in 3 straight games against opponent after 2 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more are 70-38 L/21 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors on the blind with the average margin deficit clicking in a 1.5 ppg.

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Bill Lambeer has assembled some decent young talent in Las Vegas and they should not be underestimated here at home vs a Seattle team on tired legs and in an emotional letdown situation  after a hard fought come from behind over time victory vs Chicago last time out. I'l gladly takes the points with a hungry home team looking for positive momentum.

SEATTLE is 4-12 ATS  after failing to cover 2 of their last 3 against the spread over the last 2 seasons and are 5-16 ats last 21 after scoring 75 points or more in 2 straight games.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (SEATTLE) - horrible defensive team from last season - allowed 75 or more points/game, after scoring 40 points  are 8-23 L21 seasons for a go against 74% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on Vegas to cover

The Connecticut Sun blasted out of the gate this season with a huge win vs the Las Vegas Aces by a 101-65 count, and than followed that up with a hard fought come from behind 102-94  win vs a top tier LA Sparks team. That last game, was exhausting both physically and mentally and now a natural letdown scenario is a strong possibility, as I'm betting they will take more casual approach to this  game against an Indiana side that is a lowly  0-4 on the season.

CONNECTICUT is 7-18 ATS L/25 in home games off 2 or more consecutive home wins .

NBA Road teams (INDIANA) - after 3 or more consecutive losses against opponent after 1 or more consecutive wins are 46-16 ATS L/5 seasons for a 74% conversion rate for bettors.

NBA Home favorites of 10 or more points (CONNECTICUT) - well rested team - playing only their 2nd game in 5 days, in May, June, or July games are 41-83 ATS L/21 seasons for a 67% conversion rate for bettors.

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Chicago has started their season at 2-0 and they are looking pretty strong in their current form and possible dark horse play off contenders after a dismal season in 2017. Even though their four-year streak of playoff qualification came to an end, the team did end in a positive direction at the end of last season. Point guard Courtney Vandersloot set the WNBA record for highest assist average for a season (8.1), while Allie Quigley made her first All-Star team and won the league’s 3-point contest and its extending into this season. I'm betting Atlanta will be over matched in this tilt.

ATLANTA is 10-21 ATS vs. division opponents over the last few seasons. Chicago has won 3 of the L/4 meetings here on their own floor.

WNBA team vs the money line (ATLANTA) - after being beaten by the spread by more than 18 points in their previous game, on Wednesday nights are 14-35 L/21 seasons for a go against  72% conversion rate with the average margin loss coming by 5 ppg.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (ATLANTA) - excellent offensive team from last season - scored 75 or more points/game, after a loss by 10 points or more are 14-42 L/21 seasons for a go against conversion rate of 75% for bettors with the average margin loss coming by 6.2 ppg.

Play on the Chicago Sky to cover

Connecticut clobbered Vegas in both teams opener , by a embarrassing 101-65 count. Washington is now because of the Aces dismal performance being made 16 point chalk on the opening line.It must be noted that After a long tenure with the New York Liberty, the well respected Bill Laimbeer left to become the coach and general manager of the former San Antonio Stars, which relocated to Sin City and believe me when I say he not taking this kick in the face lying down. Laimbeer does have the  talented  National Player of the Year A’ja Wilson of South Carolina and  guard Kelsey Plum in the lineup  and despite of their ugly effort last time out are talented enough to stay within the number here and at least redeem themselves to some extent by being competitive.

LAS VEGAS is 13-4 ATS L/17   in road games after a non-conference game over the last 3 seasons. LAS VEGAS is 9-1 ATS  after allowing 90 points or more over the last few seasons. LAS VEGAS is 10-2 ATS  L/12 as a road underdog of 12.5 to 18 points over the last few seasons. Mystics HC Thibault is 1-10 ATS   as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points in all games he has coached since 1997.

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Phoenix opened their season with a 86-78 win as 5 point chalk vs Dallas and look like viable underdogs in this spot vs the Seattle Storm. PHOENIX is 6-0 ATS   in road games off a win against a division rival over the last few seasons.

 Mercury C Brittney Griner  looks primed for a  season as does  C Marie Gulich. F DeWanna Bonner, back after having twins, plus  former  Fever PG Briann January. Finish off with future HOF Diana Taurasi  and you have a dangerous Mercury side to back vs a Storm side depends way to much on 3 point shooting and veteran Bird who at 37 has slowed considerably despite of still having great basketball prowess.

WNBA  Road teams with a money line of +135 to -155 (PHOENIX) - vs. division opponents, off an home win scoring 85 or more points are a long term good bet going 63-32 L/21 seasons for a 65% conversion rate for bettors.

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The core of the Sparks that  led  to success recently remains intact as  F Nneka Ogwumike (2016 MVP) and F/C Candace Parker (2008, '13 MVP) are still on the court . New faces include veteran G Cappie Pondexter and rookie C Maria Vadeeva and make them viable contenders. Their two way play is their strength , and I'm betting it keeps them in this game vs Minnesota side that had to replace a lot of their bench in the off season. The defending champs  beat the Sparks in last years finals , and are a still a top tier  team, but their overloaded veteran presence  , makes them vulnerable to injuries and exhaustion late in games, and their hunger to beat up on a team they beat last season, may be less their opponents urge for revenge.  Take the points in what should be a competitive game.

LOS ANGELES is 27-15 ATS  in all games dating back to last season.

WNBA Road teams vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) - solid team from last season - outscored opponents by 6 or more points/game, vs. division opponents are 26-5 L/21 seasons for a powerful 84% conversion rate for bettors.

Play on the LA Sparks to cover