Rotation #224205: Champions League: Tuesday OVER 2.75 -115 in Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid @ 3 ET - Each of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals and this one is poised to do the same. Those 5 meetings have averaged 4 goals apiece. Bayern Munich appears to be getting some good news on the injury front entering this one. Also, Real Madrid is missing a defender (Dani Carvajal) for this one. I like the fact that both clubs come in with plenty of positive momentum and have been playing well with wins piling up. Bayern knows they need to be aggressive here and take advantage of home pitch and get the upper hand in the first leg of this! Bayern won the most recent meeting 3-1 but this followed Real Madrid notching 4 wins and a draw in the 5 most recent meetings prior to that. Bayern has not enjoyed success in recent trips to Real Madrid so, again, this one is of paramount importance for the hosts to get an early jump. But the visitors have been rolling and often are goal-laden when these clubs meet. Real Madrid has scored 11 goals in the last 5 meeting between these clubs. That is 2.2 goals per match. Bayern Munich has scored 36 goals in last 13 games for an average of nearly 3 goals per match! Real Madrid has scored 2.2 goals per match in their last 10 matches overall! So you have a situation here in which the goals should fly once again and I am expecting 4 or more goals here so asking for at least 3 is not a big ask the way I see this one playing out. OVER 2.75 -115 in Bayern Munich

Rotation #206997: Romania Liga 1 Monday: OVER 2.5 -145 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Universitatea Craiova @ 1:30 ET - Quick write-up here as this match goes in about 5 hours from the time I am writing it up. Universitatea Craiova and Rapid Bucuresti have seen 4 of last 6 meetings total at least 3 goals. Rapid has struggled in the play-off rounds and is still seeking their first win. Look for an extra push from them on the attack here as a result. However, the strength of Craiova has been their attack and they have a legitimate shot at finishing #2 in the league and will keep pushing to earn the full 3 points in the table and not settle for draws. That means a 2-1 final is more likely than the clubs settling for a 1-1 draw. Both clubs want a win even though it is for differing reasons. Note that Rapid has seen 8 of last 10 matches total at least 3 goals. Craiova is off a 1-0 loss but had seen 15 of 17 matches prior to that total at least 3 goals! In fact, they have not had B2B matches each total less than 3 goals since the first half of November! I like odds like these and will lay the extra juice to have the over 2.5 in this one! OVER 2.5 -145 in Rapid Bucuresti

Rotation #200073: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3 -120 in Tottenham vs Arsenal @ 9 AM ET - This is a great spot to expect goals as Tottenham has been off for 2 weeks thinking about an ugly 4-0 loss to Newcastle in their most recent match! Now the Hotspur are on their home pitch and ready to respond in a huge way and I look for them to do just that! The Hotspur have scored an average of 2 goals per match this season. Of course  here they face the club at the top of the table and, as you would expect as a top club, Arsenal has scored an average of 2.4 goals per match this season. Also, Tottenham surely benefited from the extra rest and Richarlison particularly benefited. He is ready to go here and, overall, so too is this Tottenham club after the ugly loss. The benefit of getting this total at 3 goals is a big one and note that 4 of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals. Also, Arsenal flying high with confidence after a 5-0 win over Chelsea but you know Tottenham is going to bring a huge effort here at home and coming off an ugly road beating two weeks ago. The end result here should be a back-and-forth affair and a 2-2 type match would not surprise me in the least. Overall, 14 of last 15 Tottenham matches in EPL action have totaled at least 3 goals! This one will too! 12 straight home matches in EPL for Tottenham have totaled 3 or more goals. Those matches averaged 3.8 goals apiece. Given all of the above, as well as this situation, over is the play here! OVER 3 -120 in Tottenham

Rotation #200049: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3.5 -110 in Newcastle United vs Sheffield United @ 10 AM ET - Big total here but fully justified! Newcastle is angry off a shutout loss on the road. Now they are back home and favored by 2 goals on the goal line here. They will take advantage of facing a Sheffield United club that, amazingly, has allowed 92 goals in 34 matches this season! Newcastle is known for scoring well at home and they have tallied 43 in their 17 matches as a host this season. They could get this total all by themselves as scoring 4 would not surprise me. Newcastle won the reverse fixture 8-0 this season! Surely Sheffield would like revenge for that bloodbath at home but they are catching Newcastle as the wrong time to exact revenge. Sheffield should get on the scoresheet here as they have been finding the back of the net with regularity. The problem is they can stop no one and that is why I am looking for at least a 3-1 final here! Sheffield has played 16 matches since the calendar turned the page to 2024 and 14 of the 16 totaled at least 4 goals! Sheffield has scored 11 goals in last 7 matches and they will push hard here as they have nothing to lose. However, this Newcastle club is getting a little healthier again and they have the striking ability to make Sheffield pay early and often in this one on the counterattack. No club in the league has scored more than Newcastle's 43 in home matches. No club in the league is anywhere close to conceding 92 goals on the campaign like Sheffield. Look for another wild one here as the hosts will not let up here coming off a 2-0 loss at Crystal Palace. They are fired up to respond on their home pitch. OVER 3.5 -110 in Newcastle United

Rotation #206821: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Friday OVER 2.5 -102 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs Voluntari @ 1 ET - This one can be filed under the "someone knows something" category! Note that this one features Voluntari off a scoreless draw and Dinamo having seen each of their last 4 matches as a host total 2 or less goals. So, why is this total set at 2.5 goals? Exactly! Don't let the line fool you. Over is the play here. This one features two teams desperate for a full 3 points in the table and I also can not foresee either club being held off the scoresheet here. Looking for at least a 2-1 final. Note that 3 straight meetings between these clubs had totaled at least 3 goals prior to a 1-0 Dinamo win in the most recent match-up. Dinamo is off a 2-1 loss and has allowed 8 goals in last 6 matches. Voluntari, though from the Bucuresti area, is still playing on enemy turf for this match and their away matches have been high-scoring. Voluntari has gone over the total in 5 straight matches away from home. Those 5 matches have averaged 4.4 goals apiece. That run reaches 6 in a row here! OVER 2.5 -102 in Dinamo Bucuresti

Rotation #200037: English Premier League: Thursday OVER 3 -130 in Brighton & Hove vs Manchester City @ 3 ET - With Haaland scheduled to sit out this one for City, we get some line value with this total being held down at 3 goals. The fact is Haaland has not been playing well anyway in recent matches. Let him sit. There will be a strong effort from City here on the road to keep their hopes alive of finishing first. The big Arsenal win over Chelsea means Manchester City knows they need to win to keep pace. Brighton & Hove has had a disappointing stretch of play but they are still a different club when on their home pitch. I expect them to get on the board here and, of course, City is a sizable favorite here for a reason. That is why I can not see this match ending with anything less than 3 goals though I certainly am getting involved here with the expectation of 4 or more goals! City has scored 2.6 goals per match in their last 5 meetings with  Brighton & Hove. Also, Man City has scored 46 goals in last 17 road matches across all competitions. Brighton & Hove has struggled some recently but, as noted above, they can prove to be tougher on their home pitch. In league action this season, they have scored an average of 2 goals per match and have lost only twice in 15 matches! Look for a 3-2 or 3-1 type match here. It is no accident that City is favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line for this one even with Haaland slated to miss. The hosts play better at home but also can not stop a determined City attack that will be out to prove what they can do sans Haaland. OVER 3 -130 in Brighton & Hove 

Rotation #206961: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Thursday OVER 2.5 -120 in Universitatea Craiova vs CFR Cluj @ 2:45 ET - Since the regular season ended, Universitatea Craiova is the only club that has yet to have a draw. By the way, CFR Cluj has only one draw in their 5 matches since the end of the regular season. I like the odds on each club scoring here and I also like the odds on this one finding its way to at least a 2-1 final because there is a big push for each club to get the full 3 points in the table. Note that Universitatea Craiova has had 15 of last 17CF matches total at least 3 goals! The only ones that did not each totaled at least 2 goals! You can see why one should expect goals in this one! Also, CFR Cluj has both scored and conceded in 7 straight road matches! In those 7 away from home, CFR Cluj has seen those finals average nearly 4 goals apiece. With the home team normally dictating the pace I do expect the goals to fly here as CFR Cluj will have no choice but to try and attack and keep up in this one. CFR Cluj has a 5-1 loss and a 4-1 win in its two most recent road matches. More of the same here. OVER 2.5 -120 in Universitatea Craiova

Rotation #206969: Romania Liga 1: Wednesday OVER 2.5 +103 in Sepsi vs FCSB @ 2:45 ET - FCSB has a couple of injuries - Phelipe and Chiriches - but that is actually adding some value to this total. We get the over 2.5 without laying any juice because of these injuries. FCSB still has plenty of depth plus these injuries essentially balance each other out. Phelipe is a midfielder and, in theory, this could impact the transition game on the attack but Chiriches is a central defender and is a veteran that was just lost for the season. This certainly could impact FCSB in front of their own goal. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals. The last meeting in Sepsi totaled 7 goals! Also, 2 of the other 3 overs (including most recent in Bucuresti) went over the total in the first half! Don't be surprised if this is another one of those here. FCSB is in great shape but still has not locked up the top spot in the league so they will push for the full 3 points in the table here and are favored on the road for a reason. However, Sepsi has scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight matches and has averaged 1.6 goals scored per match during this stretch! FCSB has only been shutout once in last 9 matches and in the other 8 they averaged 1.8 goals scored per match. Given all of the above I simply can not envision a clean sheet for either club. That said, what about the odds of a 1-1 draw? Well, FCSB has only 4 draws in last 19 road matches across all competitions. Sepsi has only 6 draws in last 30 matches! So you are talking about a 20% draw rate roughly. I like the odds of another thriller between these clubs and this one gets to at least a 2-1 final. OVER 2.5 +103 in Sepsi

Rotation #200021: English Premier League Wednesday OVER 2.5 -145 in Wolverhampton vs Bournemouth @ 2:45 ET - Hwang Hee-chan and Matheus Cunha both are expected to be available for the Wolves in this one. The hosts keep shipping too many goals but this is good news for them in terms of boosting their attack. Hee-chan was limited to 45 minutes last week but is ramping up and now Cunha is expected back after missing the match with Arsenal. Gary O'Neil was the manager at Bournemouth last season and now leads Wolverhampton. His Wolves already won the reverse fixture by a 2-1 count and now they are aiming to do the double over Bournemouth by taking this one as well. However, the issue for the Wolves is they have conceded at least a goal in 8 straight matches across all competitions and allowed an average of 2 goals during this stretch. The fact is, however, Bournemouth has not been any better in that department. They have allowed at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches and conceded an average of 2 goals in those 6 matches. These clubs are battling it out in the mid-table position and I would not be surprised, given the above numbers, to see a 2-2 type of match here and a sharing of the spoils. 6 of the last 7 matches for Bournemouth have totaled at least 3 goals and I have liked the aggressiveness on the attack that I have seen from them. Those 6 overs averaged 4 goals apiece! Andoni Iraola, O'Neil's replacement, has his Cherries playing competitive football but their penchant for high-scoring thrillers continues. I don't see that coming to an end here and expect at least a 2-1 type battle in this one. Wolverhampton is getting some guys back this week but Bournemouth continues to pressure opponents on the attack. The Wolves had 21 shots (7 on goal) in the 2-1 win back in October and and will again create plenty of chances here but Bournemouth is playing much better now on the attack than they were back then and that is why a 2-2 thriller could be in the cards here. OVER 2.5 -145 in Bournemouth

Rotation #200017: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 3 -125 in Arsenal vs Chelsea @ 3 ET - Because of the question mark surrounding Chelsea star Cole Palmer (illness) for this match Tuesday, we are getting excellent line value here with this total held down at 3 goals. Two strong clubs meeting here and, of course, Arsenal is a 1 goal favorite on the goal line with good reason. Logically building off that, I just do not see Chelsea being shutout here. They had so many great chances in the 1-0 loss to Manchester City Saturday. They just failed to cash them. That said, one can logically expect at least a 2-1 type match here though I am surely expecting a lot more and with good reason. Chelsea, in EPL matches, has gone over the the total in 9 of last 10 matches. Not only that, all 9 of those matches have totaled at least 4 goals and actually averaged 5 goals apiece! Entering this match, Chelsea is on a 6-0 run to the over in EPL matches with all 6 of those totaling at least 4 goals! The Blues also have seen 4 of last 5 meetings with Arsenal (across all competitions) total at least 4 goals! Arsenal just delivered a clean sheet versus the Wolves but they had allowed 5 goals in last 3 matches across all competitions prior to that 2-0 win. Also, Arsenal is scoring an average of 2.3 goals per match in EPL action this season but Chelsea averaging 2 goals per match in league action and I am sure will be on the attack in this one after the way the match with City played out! Look for 4 or more here and we'll take advantage of this total available at a 3 as of overnight hours heading into Tuesday. OVER 3 -125 in Arsenal

Rotation #206973: Romania Liga 1: Tuesday OVER 2 -135 in FC Botosani vs Dinamo Bucuresti @ 12:30 ET - Botosani out for revenge from a 2-0 home loss the last time these clubs met in the regular season. Now it is a key play-out battle as both clubs looking to avoid relegation. These were two of the worst clubs in the regular season overall but both showed a lot of fight and determination in the latter stages of the regular season and that has continued into the post-season. That said, value here with this total available at 2 goals in the marketplace. Prior to the 2-0 Dinamo win at Botosani, 4 of the last 5 meetings had totaled at least 3 goals and those 4 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Long-term numbers would support the low total here for these clubs but look at the recent action! Botosani has had 4 of last 5 matches total at least 2 goals and 3 of the 4 totaled at least 3 goals! Also, they have scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches at home and averaged scoring 2 goals in those 6 matches! As for Dinamo, after some tough times earlier this season, they have averaged 1 goal scored last 16 matches. The problem for the boys from Bucuresti, and it continues here, is they have allowed 31 goals in their 18 matches away from home this season. You can see why I am expecting both clubs to score here and then note that Dinamo has had only a 20% draw rate dating back to the beginning of season with 7 in 35 matches. As for the hosts, they have had just 5 draws last 24 matches prior to a 1-1 draw in most recent match. 2-1 final is my projection in this one. OVER 2 -135 in Botosani

Rotation #201353: Italian Serie A: Monday OVER 2 -125 in Roma vs Bologna @ 12:30 ET - This is a contrarian play. As long-time followers know, I like to use contrarian angles. The recent history of meetings between these clubs is very few goals. Also, both clubs enter this match in current form that has been trending under for weeks now. However, if you look at some of the key statistics like overall shots as well as shots on goal, there is an indication something different is brewing right now for each club! I particularly like the aggressiveness I have seen from Bologna recently on the attack and, being the road club in this one, I look for a strong push from the visitors and this will illicit a response from Roma. Note that Roma has scored an average of 2 goals per match in league action as a host but is allowing 1 goal per match even at home. Though Bologna does not score as well on the road as they do at home, they are still averaging 1 goal scored on the road and also allowing 1 goal per match as a traveler in league action. Roma does have a game in hand on Bologna but the fact they are trailing them by 4 points in the table, I do not foresee them settling for a share of the spoils here. That said, the odds of a draw are slim as Roma only has 3 draws in 16 matches on their home pitch this season. I look for each club to make the net ripple and then eventually this match finds itself at 2-1. The value of the over being available at 2 goals strengthens this spot and I will not hesitate to get involved. OVER 2 -125 in Roma

Rotation #206937: Romania Liga 1: Sunday OVER 2.5 +105 in Sepsi vs Universitatea Craiova @ Noon ET - Sepsi is off a 1-0 win at Rapid. This low-scoring win followed Sepsi both scoring and conceding in 4 straight matches! Also, Sepsi has scored an average of 1.7 goals per match over their last 7 matches. They have been playing well and love playing at home but Universitatea Craiova is sure to give them trouble in this one. The visitors have been a goal-scoring machine and this includes matches away from home as well! In fact, before a rare 2-0 shutout loss at FCSB, note that Universitatea Craiova scored 2.3 goals per match in their last 8 ROAD matches! Overall, in all matches, 14 of last 16 Universitatea Craiova matches have totaled at least 3 goals! This one will too and you will see a strong push for the full 3 points in the table in this play-off battle and with both clubs very likely to score, that is why I am projecting at least a 2-1 final here. Note that Sepsi had only 7 draws in 30 matches in the regular season and, out of all 16 clubs in the league, note that Universitatea Craiova is the only club without a draw and I look for that streak to remain intact here with at least 3 goals in this one! OVER 2.5 +105 in Sepsi

Rotation #200009: English Premier League Sunday OVER 3 -123 in Aston Villa vs Bournemouth @ 10 AM ET - Aston Villa still pushing hard for a top four finish in the table. They are off a 2-1 loss to Lille but that was the 2nd leg and the 1 goal they got was a key one from Matty Cash. That knotted the aggregate at 3-3 and Aston Villa then prevailed on penalty kicks so they are coming into this match with momentum. I love the over here because Bournemouth will surely push the pace here and try to take advantage of possible weary Villa legs. However, Villa is so tough at home and will take advantage on the counterattack. Villa has scored 2.5 goals per match when at home this season in EPL action but also has allowed 1.4 goals per match at home. Bournemouth has allowed 2 goals per match when on the road this season but also is scoring 1.6 goals per match when away from home. The goals absolutely should fly here. Bournemouth, which might surprise many to hear, has scored exactly 2 goals in 5 of the last 6 meetings with Aston Villa. As for the hosts in this match-up, they have scored 5 goals in their last 2 matches versus Bournemouth. Also, Aston Villa has averaged scoring 2.8 goals per match in their last 4 home matches across all competitions. We have to lay a little juice to have the over 3 in this one but it is available in the marketplace and well worth it though I certainly am expecting 4 or more goals here. 12 of 15 Bournemouth road matches have totaled 3 or more goals this season. This one will too! OVER 3 -123 in Aston Villa

Rotation #206933: Romania Liga 1: Saturday OVER 2.5 -105 in FCSB vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 1:30 ET - Not only have these clubs gone over the total in 3 straight meetings overall. The over is also a perfect 4-0 the L4 times that FCSB has hosted. Yes, both clubs play in Bucuresti but the value of a club being in their home stadium where they are most comfortable does matter. FCSB has scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight home matches and has averaged 2.1 goals scored during this stretch. The last 4 times they have hosted Rapid, those matches have all totaled at least 3 goals and the matches have averaged 4.3 goals apiece! FCSB has been perfect in the play-off portion of the schedule thus far with a 4-0 record. However, Rapid beat them 4-0 in the final match of the regular season so you know FCSB is out for revenge here. The hosts have a comfortable lead at the top of the table so they can go all out here on the attack in an effort to get their revenge. That said I expect an attack-filled affair to be the story in this one. Rapid will be looking to respond off a 1-0 home loss and 6 of 7 Rapid matches prior to that one went over the total and those 6 averaged 4 goals apiece. The over improves to 5-0 L5 times FCSB has hosted Rapid! OVER 2.5 -105 in FCSB

Rotation #200401: English FA Cup: Saturday OVER 3 -110 in Manchester City vs Chelsea @ 12:15 ET - Manchester City will bounce back after the frustrating loss to Real Madrid in Champions League action. After being eliminated from competing for that title, City views this one as even more important now and will be looking to keep their hopes alive of winning some hardware. Chelsea, however, will have something to say about that and has been scoring plenty of goals. I look for a high-scoring affair here as City will be aggressively attacking after the 1-1 result with Real Madrid. Couple that with Chelsea continuing to pile up goals - Palmer now has scored as many as Haaland in EPL action - and I look for a 3-2 type match here! The last meeting between these clubs was 1-1 but this followed a 4-4 thriller which marked the 2nd time in 3 meetings that City had reached the 4-goal mark. Entering this one Chelsea has seen 8 straight matches total at least 4 goals and those 8 have actually averaged 5 goals apiece! We get some line value here because there is a chance that City could rotate some players after that long battle with Real Madrid but, even if they do, they have plenty of firepower and will bounce back strong at home even if Chelsea matches them goal for goal. I expect 2 goals for each club in this one given all of the above! OVER 3 -110 in Manchester City

Rotation #201321: Italian Serie A: Friday OVER 2 -125 in Genoa vs Lazio @ 12:30 ET - These clubs last met in Coppa Italia action and it was a 1-0 final as was their most recent meeting in Serie A action back in August. However, the long-term history between these clubs is that the goals fly and this is another one, based on situation, that should be a goal-laden affair. Prior to the August meeting, the last 13 meetings totaled 57 goals! 1 totaled just 2 goals but the other 12 all totaled 3 or more goals and those dozen matches averaged 4.6 goals apiece! That said, we have some excellent line value with this total available at 2 goals. Genoa has trended toward higher scoring matches when on their home pitch this season and Lazio has trended toward higher scoring matches when on the road this season. Genoa home matches averaging 2.7 goals apiece. Lazio road matches averaging 2.8 goals apiece. You can see, given all of the above, why I am expecting each club to make the net ripple in this one. That means at least a 1-1 final but what about the likelihood of a draw here? Lazio has the FEWEST draws (4) of any club in Serie A this season and that includes only ONE draw in 16 matches on the road this season. Also, only 2 of the last 15 meetings between these clubs have finished in a draw. In other words, look for at least a 2-1 final here. Lazio enters this match off a huge 4-1 win to get back on track and Genoa has scored in 5 straight matches at home and averaged scoring 1.6 goals per match during this 5-match stretch. OVER 2 -125 in Genoa

Rotation #206941: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Friday OVER 2 -120 in Hermannstadt vs Botosani @ 10:30 AM ET - Hermannstadt has scored 7 goals in their 4 matches in the play-out and Botosani has scored 6 goals in their 4 matches. Only 1 club (Voluntari) out of all 16 clubs in the play-off and play-out for Romania Liga 1 has scored more than these two clubs. That said, we have some nice value on the over here with this total available at 2 goals. Note that both clubs have momentum coming off big wins last week and Hermannstadt has scored 9 goals in its last 4 matches on its home pitch. They are battling other clubs at the top of the play-out table so getting the full 3 points in the table is the goal here and not settling for a draw. Botosani also has impressed as they look to escape the relegation zone of the play-out table. Their confidence surging with each win and they too will be pushing hard for the crucial 3 points. Considering this factor and the strong likelihood each club makes the net ripple at least once in this one, I am anticipating this gets to 3 goals, at least, via a 2-1 final. Botosani has played 11 matches since the start of February and 8 of the 11 (73%) have totaled at least 3 goals. Botosani visited here in late January and lost 2-0 but had scored at least 1 goal in each of 5 prior matches at Hermannstadt. They carry some momentum from the recent home successes but also have allowed 19 goals in last 12 games and the hosts have scored 29 matches in their last 16 matches at home! OVER 2 -120 in Hermanndstadt

Rotation #224429: UEFA Europa League: OVER 3.5 +100 in Atalanta vs Liverpool @ 3 ET - With Atalanta having a 3-0 lead because of the 1st leg, Liverpool has no choice but to go for it here and throw caution to the wind. Remember, the Reds have done this before - completely turning it around after an ugly 1st leg - and, though it won't be easy don't be surprised if the Reds do it again. If nothing else, it should set up for an exciting affair because Liverpool will be on the attack but this exposes them at the back also. The last time they visited Atalanta they won 5-0. Also, I really like the way this one sets up. The Reds are off B2B losses that were both at home but now this is the first of 4 away matches for Liverpool. They are not home again until May but sometimes this type of scheduling quirk completely refocuses a club and I look for them to come out strong and firing on all cylinders. Jota has been back (sparingly, last 2 matches) but is ramping up and could (should!) play an even bigger role here. Also, I like the fact that both home defeats (shockingly!) were shutout losses for the Reds. I expect them to be utterly relentless here in terms of possession and attacking and they will score big here but should also allow at least 1 goal as clean sheets have just not been there for the Reds plus they are going to be so aggressive on the attack. So perhaps a 4-1 result and this 2-leg tie eventually decided on penalties. Or could it be, for Liverpool, a disappointing 3-1 win (they must win here by at least 3) or 2-2 draw or even 3-2. Looking at this match from all angles I feel the over 3.5 at even money offers the best wagering opportunity here! OVER 3.5 +100 in Atalanta

Rotation #215221: UEFA Europa Conference League: OVER 2.5 -130 in Lille vs Aston Villa @ 12:45 ET - Aston Villa won the 1st Leg by a 2-1 final but Lille was able to create plenty of scoring chances and, in the opinion of many, deserved at least a draw in that battle. Now, on their home pitch and trailing by a goal on the aggregate, Lille is sure to be even more aggressive than they were in the 1st Leg. The result will be plenty of scoring chances but also will open things up for a dangerous Aston Villa club on the counter-attack. Aston Villa has scored an average of 2 goals per match in their last 7 matches across all competitions. Lille has both scored and conceded in 6 straight matches! But a 1-1 draw is unacceptable to them here as they already trail by a goal because of the 1st leg result. That is why you would see a strong push from Lille even with the counterattack risk and I can not foresee this match ending with anything less than a 2-1 final. Lille has fresh legs too since they have not played since last week's match with Aston Villa. Lille has scored multiple goals in 7 of last 8 on their home pitch and the only match they did not was certainly impacted by the fact it was a 2nd Leg match in which they already led 3-0. The point is this French Ligue 1 club is particularly strong on the attack on their home pitch and, down 2-1 in this battle, they will respond well here but Aston Villa makes them pay on the counterattack. Asking for 3 goals here is not asking too much! OVER 2.5 -130 in Lille

Rotation #224217: UEFA Champions League Tuesday OVER 3 -135 in Barcelona vs Paris Saint-Germain @ 3 PM ET - In the first leg, Barcelona held Mbappe in check and yet PSG still scored two goals. I expect some adjustments from the PSG side to free up Mbappe a little more in the second leg. Down 3-2 on the aggregate, Paris Saint-Germain must be aggressive on the attack here but Barcelona also certainly has the firepower on the counter-attack to make them pay for an aggressive style. We have to lay a little extra juice to have this total at over 3 goals but I can't see this match ending with anything less than that! Barcelona has scored an average of 2.4 goals in their last 24 matches on their home pitch. The Barcelona manager said that this one is about two clubs that both like to play on the front foot. The PSG manager is saying they must attack and be aggressive here in the rematch and he felt they deserved at least a draw in the first match. Actually, a 2-2 draw is the type of battle I am expecting here in the second leg. With PSG down a goal and on the road, they will be aggressive from the outset in this one. PSG has scored 7 goals in its last 3 meetings with Barcelona. In terms of current form, PSG has scored in 8 consecutive matches across all competitions and has averaged scoring 2.4 goals per match during this stretch. Another 3-2 battle or 2-2 at least should be expected here. Mbappe will be stronger in the rematch and the visitors will be on the attack which forces the tempo of this match and the hosts match them goal for goal. OVER 3 -135 in Barcelona

Rotation #200109: English Premier League: Monday OVER 3 -130 in Chelsea vs Everton @ 3 ET - Chelsea's last 7 matches across all competitions have ALL gone over the total! Not only that, those matches have averaged 5 goals apiece! Solid line value here with this total being held down to a 3 in some books. Note that this is because Everton is known for lower-scoring battles but I do believe that Chelsea is going to dictate the flow of this match. Also note that Chelsea has been giving up plenty of goals no matter who they have faced. Chelsea has allowed 2 or more goals in 7 straight matches across all competitions. Everton has scored 2 goals in each of last 2 meetings with Chelsea. Also, Everton has scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches overall. Chelsea is a sizable favorite here with good reason and you can see why I am anticipating at least a 2-1 final here given all of the above but, truly, a 3-2 type match is even more likely! Look for plenty of scoring in this one. OVER 3 -120 in Chelsea

Rotation #206909: Romania Liga 1 Play-off: Monday OVER 2.5 -110 in Rapid Bucuresti vs Sepsi @ 1:30 ET - This total is 2.5 with good reason. The last 3 meetings between these clubs, amazingly, have all been 0-0 draws! However, you are going to see nothing like that today. Rapid has had 4 straight matches go over the total. This one will make it 5 in a row as they continue to struggle to stop opponents but also continue getting on the scoreboard. They will fight hard on their home pitch to finally get into the win column here in the play-off round but they have allowed 8 goals last 3 matches. Rapid has scored an average of 2.5 goals in last 14 home matches! Sepsi has gone over the total in 3 straight road matches! That means we are testing double perfect over angles here. OVER 2.5 -110 in Rapid Bucuresti

Rotation #209841: Major League Soccer: OVER 2.75 -125 in Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union @ 2:30 ET - Atlanta is off a 1-1 draw on the road but they are a different club when they have been at home this season. Atlanta is 3-0 as a host and has scored an average of 3 goals per match in these 3 matches on their home pitch! Atlanta has scored 2 goals in each of last two meetings with Philly but also lost the most recent meeting by a count of 3-2. The goal should fly again in this one as Philadelphia is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season and you can see why I am anticipating a 2-2 type match here. 3-2 (again) between these clubs seems even more likely but getting this one to at least 2-1, if not 2-2 or more, certainly seems likely given the above. OVER 2.75 -125 in Atlanta United

Rotation #200105: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3 -130 in Arsenal vs Aston Villa @ 11:30 AM ET - These are two of the highest scoring clubs in the league. Arsenal is averaging 2.5 goals per match this season and Aston Villa scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. Considering that, even though this is a high-stakes match, I just can not see a situation where offensive attacking is NOT ruling the day in this one. These clubs can, and will, be on the attack! The fact the total is available at a 3 in the marketplace makes the value in getting involved with this one even stronger. Arsenal, since the turn of he year, has scored 38 goals in 11 EPL matches! Aston Villa, across all competitions, has scored an average of 2 goals per match last 6 matches! This is also a revenge match for the Gunners as they lost at Aston Villa 1-0 earlier this season. Arsenal had scored 2.5 goals per match in last 4 meetings with Aston Villa prior to that. All signs point to a strong effort for the hosts here as a result but Villa has the attacking ability to turn this into a helluva back-and-forth match. 2-2 or 3-2 is what I am projecting here. OVER 3 -130 in Arsenal

Rotation #206921: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Saturday OVER 2 -118 in Universitatea Cluj vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 2:30 ET - Universitatea Cluj off a 1-1 draw on the road preceded by a scoreless draw at home. Prior to that one however, they had won 3 straight matches on their home pitch and scored an average of 1.7 goals per match. Petro will be ready to go here after an ugly 4-0 loss to Voluntari and this was a home match for Petro! They are fired up to respond and had scored an average of 1 goal per match in last 7 matches overall prior to that disaster. Though I do expect a strong effort to net at least 1 goal for Petro here, I also do not see them stopping the hosts in this one either.  Universitatea Cluj, just like Petro, have extras motivation to be aggressive on the attack in this one. OVER 2 -118 in Universitatea Cluj

Rotation #200125: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3.5+110 in Bournemouth vs Manchester United @ 12:30 ET - Manchester United is going to bring a strong effort here as Ten Hag is under pressure and this club needs to respond. They also have revenge on their minds for a crazy 3-0 home loss to Bournemouth earlier this season. However, though I do expect them to respond and though I do respect their capabilities on the attack, Man U can not be trusted defensively. Also, the Cherries are sure to bring a strong effort on their home pitch here. That said, this match should be filled with goals galore. Bournemouth has the added boost of confidence of the 3-0 victory over Man U earlier this season. However, Man U had won 3 straight meetings by a combined score of 9 to 2. Entering this match, Bournemouth has scored in 6 straight matches and averaged 2 goals per match! Man U has scored in 17 straight matches across all competitions and has averaged 2.2 goals scored per match! Man U also has the fewest draws (4) in the league and that means they are a club known for throwing caution to the wind in going for the wins in addition to also proving very susceptible to blown leads as well. This one I am anticipating a 3-2 type match here as a result but certainly 3-1 does the trick just as well. High-scoring battle on tap here. OVER 3.5 +110 in Bournemouth

Rotation #200117: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3.5 -135 in Manchester City vs Luton Town @ 10 AM ET - 3 straight City matches across all competitions have totaled 5 or more goals. Luton Town is off a rare win and did score 2 goals in that victory. Luton Town has now scored 28 goals in last 16 matches across all competitions. In other words, the goals should fly in this one! There is no way Luton Town is going to shut down this powerhouse club on their own turf. But, even on the road, these visitors have shown they can at least get on the board. At the same time, City is a very heavy favorite here with good reason. Look for at least a 3-1 type final here. City has won the last two meetings by a combined score of 8 to 3. This one has 4-1 written all over it. City is rolling strong again with 11 goals scored in last 3 matches across all competitions. They have conceded an average of 2 goals per match last 3 as well. Luton Town throws caution to the wind here because they really have no choice. As a result, the goals fly here! OVER 3.5 -135 in Manchester City

Rotation #201805: Spanish La Liga: Friday OVER 2.5 +100 in Real Betis vs Celta de Vigo @ 3 ET - Celta de Vigo is one of the highest scoring clubs in the league in road matches. When away from home, they are averaging 1.5 goals scored per match! As for Real Betis, they are going to battle strong on their home pitch and take advantage of a visitor that is allowing 1.8 goals per match when on the road. You can see why goals can be expected to fly here. Helping the cause is the fact that Real Betis has been scoring well but also conceding at a high rate as their current run of form has resulted in 4 of last 5 matches totaling at least 3 goals and these matches averaged 4 goals apiece. This one also is testing a 6-0 run as Celta de Vigo has had 6 straight road matches total at least 3 goals and those matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Look for the over run to reach a perfect 7-0 with another high-scoring battle here. OVER 2.5 +105 in Real Betis

Rotation #201281: Italian Serie A: Friday OVER 2.5 -145 in Lazio vs Salernitana @ 2:45 ET - 4 of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals and these matches have averaged 3 goals apiece! Salernitana has allowed 2 goals per match this season and I see at least a 2-1 final here as Lazio has not exactly been a clean sheet machine of late! Lazio is allowing only 1 goal per match this season but also, after recent struggles, they are looking for a breakout game on the attack and I expect an aggressive approach and plenty of goal-scoring as a result. 3-0, 2-1 or 3-1 all seem like perfectly logical finals here and we take advantage of this total being available at 2.5 goals. OVER 2.5 -145 in Lazio

Rotation #224401: Europa League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg: Thursday OVER 3 -145 in Liverpool vs Atalanta @ 3 ET - The last time these clubs met was 4 years ago and it was after COVID had begun so the matches took place in empty stadiums. Liverpool still scored a total of 7 goals in those 2 matches and the 2nd meeting was after they already had a 5-0 lead plus Anfield was empty! Now imagine the charged atmosphere in the stadium for this one and you know where I am going here! The Reds are going to bring a super strong effort on their home pitch to look to get an advantage in the first leg of this one. However, Atalanta has solid attacking talent and the Reds have been nowhere close to flawless in front of their own goal. In other words, look for the visitors to score here. Also, Liverpool is certainly favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line with good reason. In other words, look for a 3-1 type final here...maybe 3-2. The goals should fly and the value of the over 3 in this one (even at higher juice) is certainly a nice perk as well in terms of mitigating risk if this one lands on 3 goals. Liverpool has had 5 straight matches overall total at least 3 goals and 4 of those totaled at least 4 goals so this spot is testing a 100% run L4. Also, L6 in Europa League action all totaled at least 3 goals and 5 of the 6 totaled 4 or more so this one also is testing a 5-0 100% run to the over. Atlanta has scored in all 8 Europa League matches during this campaign and averaged 2 goals scored per match! Look for the goals to fly in this one. OVER 3 -145 in Liverpool

Rotation #215205: Europa Conference League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg: Thursday OVER 2.5 +105 in Viktoria Plzen vs Fiorentina @ 12:45 ET - If you look at recent results for these clubs you will be looking under. However, the fact is Fiorentina likes to attack and they will want to be aggressive here on the road to establish the upper hand in the first leg of this match-up. This is going to force the tempo of the match and certainly Viktoria Plzen is going to put up at a fight here on their home pitch. They had B2B scoreless draws with Servette in the most recent match-ups in this competition but this followed Plzen rattling off 6 straight victories and scoring an average of 1.5 goals in those 6 wins in the Europa Conference League matches. Now they host a tough Fiorentina club that is undefeated in the 8 matches in this competition thus far and has scored an average of 2.5 goals in those matches. Given all of the above, I am envisioning a 2-1 type match here. Fiorentina has only 2 clean sheets in the 8 matches and they allowed an average of 1.7 goals in the other 6 matches. OVER 2.5 +105 in Viktoria Plzen

Rotation #224213: Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg Wednesday OVER 2.5 -145 in PSG vs Barcelona @ 3 ET - The last time these clubs met it was a 1-1 draw. However, this followed 3 straight overs and those matches averaged 5 goals apiece! Barcelona enters this one having averaged 2 goals scored in their last 4 matches. Also, Paris Saint-Germain has averaged 2.4 goals scored in their last 7 matches. I like the fact that Barcelona is the more rested club but PSG is hosting this one in Paris. This should bring out the best from both clubs and I look for plenty of attacking from Barcelona. Yes, they are capable of strong defensive play but they would love nothing more than to get the upper hand on the road in this one and take care of some possibly weary legs for PSG. This will be the hosts 3rd match in about a week while the visitors have not played yet in the month of April. 3 of the last 4 Barcelona matches in Champions League action have totaled at least 4 goals and this one will too! OVER 2.5 -145 in PSG

Rotation #224205: Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -145 in Arsenal vs Bayern Munich @ 3 ET - Quite a history here with 4 of last 5 meetings totaling at least 3 goals and also the fact that Bayern Munich has scored 5 goals in EACH of the last 3 meetings in Champions League action. Overall, 10 of last 12 Bayern Munich matches across all competitions have totaled at least 3 goals. Those 10 matches have averaged 4.7 goals apiece! Arsenal has been on a great run defensively but I don't trust them to shut down a Bayern Munich team that always gives them trouble. At the same time, Bayern Munich has been far from water-tight defensively and this Arsenal club has scored average of 3 goals in last 13 matches across all competitions. OVER 2.5 -145 in Arsenal

Rotation #224201: Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -118 in Real Madrid vs Manchester City @ 3 ET - 6 of the last 7 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals and these 7 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Real Madrid enters this one having scored an average of 2.6 goals last 27 matches across all competitions. Manchester City scoring an average of 2.4 goals last 25 matches across all competitions. Each club has some injury concerns defensively as well. Yes Real Madrid will try to slow things down some on their home pitch but City is too strong and will break through. That will open things up to a match featuring plenty of attacking and counter-attacking and, just like the average scored in the last 7 meetings this one is likely to reach the 4-goal mark. That said, we only need 3 to be a winner here and I like our chances. OVER 2.5 -118 in Real Madrid

Rotation #201277: Italian Serie A: Monday OVER 2.5 -135 in Udinese vs Inter Milan @ 2:45 ET - Inter Milan is very comfortable at the top of the table. They are scoring an average of 2.5 goals per match this season and should cruise again here at Udinese. With practically no pressure at all on Inter Milan, I could see them relaxing a bit defensively and Udinese should get at least 1 goal here. Of course Inter Milan is a heavy favorite with good reason and I am projecting a 3-1 type match here. However, even if it only gets to 2-1 or perhaps 3-0 that still cashes this ticket for us. Udinese does average one goal scored per match when at home. 4 straight meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and that includes the last 3 totaling 4 goals apiece! Look for this over trend to make it 5 in a row on Monday. OVER 2.5 -135 in Udinese

Rotation #206873: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Monday OVER 2 +110 in Otelul Galati vs Dinamo Bucuresti @ 1:30 ET - Galati has been playing very well in the play-out stage and also is on their home pitch for this one. Dinamo is desperate to avoid relegation and got a point in their last match with a 1-1 draw but they allowed 3 goals in their most recent road match. They will struggle, as per usual, on the road here but I do look for Dinamo to also make the net ripple in this one. Note that Dinamo won the most recent meeting between these clubs 3-1. Note that 12 of Dinamo's 16 road matches this season have totaled at least 2 goals and those dozen matches averaged 3 goals apiece. Considering the trending as well as the situational aspects of this one, we have excellent value on this total. OVER 2 +110 in Otelul Galati

Rotation #206893: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Monday OVER 2.5 +110 in Poli Iasi vs FCU 1948 Craiova @ 10:30 AM ET - Iasi has been waiting for this one. Their last home match was a scoreless draw and they make up for that here. This is just their 2nd home match since late February. Other than that scoreless draw, the other 6 matches for Iasi since mid-February have averaged 2.5 goals apiece. Both Iasi and FCU 1948 Craiova have lost their first two matches in the play-out phase and they are desperate for the full 3 points in the table. They each have allowed 1.5 goals in their 2 matches in play-out so far and I expect each club to concede here and then an aggressive push for the 3rd and decisive goal in the battle. So take advantage of the plus money on the over 2.5 in this one. 3 of the 4 FCU 1948 Craiova matches last month totaled at least 3 goals and this one will too. This match will be played with a sense of urgency as both teams have concerns about relegation and must be more aggressive on the attack here. OVER 2.5 +110 in Poli Iasi

Rotation #209989: Major League Soccer: Sunday OVER 2.5 -135 in Sporting KC vs Portland @ 1:45 ET - 3 straight Sporting KC matches have gone over the total and the 3 of them averaged 4 goals apiece! 3 of the last 4 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 5 goals and these 4 matches have averaged 5 goals apiece! Portland enters this match with 5 of their last 6 matches this season totaling at least 3 goals! You can see why I like the over here and a 2-2 match would not surprise me in the least. Those 5 Portland matches that went over have averaged 4 goals apiece. More of the same expected in this one. OVER 2.5 -135 in Sporting KC

Rotation #206881: Romania Liga 1 Play-off: Sunday OVER 2.5 -115 in FCSB vs Universitatea Craiova @ 1:30 ET - The over is a perfect 8-0 in Universitatea Craiova road matches as they each totaled at least 3 goals and these matches have averaged 4 goals! In other words, goals will fly here in this one! Both clubs entering with 2-0 records so far in the play-off stage as well!  Universitatea Craiova lost the most recent meeting with FCSB 3-0 but has since scored in 9 straight matches and averaged scoring 2 goals during this stretch! Each of the last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 3 goals and FCSB has scored 8 goals in these 3 matches! Look for a wild one here as FCSB is so strong but Universitatea Craiova has been playing well and scoring well. FCSB has scored well at home and is averaging 2 goals per match in the last 7 on their home pitch! Look for that run noted above to reach 9 in a row here! OVER 2.5 -115 in FCSB

Rotation #200053: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3.5 +110 in Tottenham vs Nottingham Forest @ 1 ET - Tottenham is averaging 2 goals scored per match this season plus they are at home here plus they are facing one of the weaker clubs in the league. The Hotspur are hosting a Nottingham club that has allowed 2 goals per match when on the road this season. Given these numbers and the match-up edges for the hosts, you can see why I am expecting Tottenham to score at least 3 goals here. The Hotspur are also motivated because of coming off a 1-1 draw. They are directly behind Aston Villa in the table so they would like to make a push for the #4 spot in the table! That said, 1-1 draws do not help much in that regard! Look for them to blowout Nottingham Forest there. The visitors should also get on the board however. They are off a 3-1 win and have scored at least 1 goal in 3 straight matches. Plus Tottenham has allowed at least 1 goal in 11 straight home matches! That is an amazing stat and when you also consider that the Hotspur are favored by 1.5 goals on the goal line here, you can see why a 3-1 or 3-2 type match is highly probable in this one. Take advantage of the plus money at over 3.5 goals in this one! OVER 3.5 +110 in Tottenham

Rotation #200077: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3.5 -125 in Manchester United vs Liverpool @ 10:30 AM ET - Some concerns for each club defensively entering this one. In terms of offensive production, the Reds are averaging 2.3 goals scored per match this season and Man U is averaging 1.4 goals scored per match on the campaign. Also, 2 of the last 3 meetings between these clubs have totaled 7 goals! Liverpool enters this match having averaged 3.5 goals scored per match last 4 matches. Man U has scored an average of 2.5 goals scored last 4 matches. Even though some personnel could be back for each club here, there are still health concerns and depth concerns with each club defensively. That coupled with each clubs attacking strengths means we should see plenty of goals in this one! OVER 3.5 -125 in Manchester United

Rotation #206877: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Sunday OVER 2 +105 in Hermannstadt vs  Universitatea Cluj @ 7:30 AM ET - Hermannstadt is tough on their home pitch and is actually undefeated there ever since losing their home opener. Yes, undefeated last 15 matches and having scored an average of 2 goals per match during this stretch! Their last two home matches were both wins and they scored at least 3 goals in each of them. Universitatea Cluj has not been allowing goals of late but, per the above, I don't see them shutting down Hermannstadt on their own turf. As for Universitatea Cluj entering this one off a scoreless draw, they had won 3 of 4 matches prior to that and had scored 1.7 goals per victory. The low total of 2 on this one adds to the appeal and we will gladly invest here. OVER 2 +105 in Universitatea Cluj

Rotation #206885: Romania Liga 1 Play-off: Saturday OVER 2.5 +105 in Rapid Bucuresti vs CFR Cluj @ 1:30 ET - The over is a perfect 3-0 the L3 times Rapid has hosted CFR Cluj and, prior to a 1-0 win for Rapid at CFR Cluj, the last 4 meetings overall had all gone over and they averaged 4 goals apiece. Also, Rapid is off a 2-1 road win and their last 3 matches at home have all gone over the total and have averaged 4 goals apiece. As you can see, there are multiple perfect angles here. As for CFR Cluj, they have scored an average of 2 goals in their last dozen matches! Also, they have both scored and conceded in 5 straight road matches. Those have averaged 3 goals apiece. You can see, given the above, why I am expecting at least a 2-1 final here. OVER 2.5 +105 in Rapid Bucuresti

Rotation #200049: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 2.5 -140 in Brighton & Hove vs Arsenal @ 12:30 ET - Brighton & Hove was shutout at Arsenal earlier this season but they scored 2.5 goals per match in 4 meetings prior to that. They will be out for revenge on their home pitch but Arsenal is battling for the top spot in the table with good reason. Also, this club rested some guys in their mid-week match so fresh legs will make them even more dangerous in this battle. Arsenal is off some lower-scoring wins of late but it is sounding like the shackles will be off in this one and I expect them to play an aggressive attacking style on the road here. Arsenal has averaged scoring 2.4 goals per match on the road this season. Brighton, despite some recent low-scoring battles, does still have attacking talent that can make a little noise on their home pitch here. I can't see this one ending with anything less than a 2-1 final. OVER 2.5 -140 in Brighton

Rotation #206889: Romania Liga 1 Play-out: Saturday OVER 2 -115 in Petrolul Ploiesti vs FC Voluntari @ 10:30 AM ET - Petro off a 1-0 win in most recent home match but this was preceded by 4 straight overs at home and those 4 matches as a host averaged 3.5 goals apiece. FC Voluntari has had 3 straight overs in road matches in league action so we are testing a 100% perfect trend here with this picks and have great value with the low total in this one. OVER 2 -115 in Petrolul Ploiesti

Rotation #200085: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 2.5 -130 in Everton vs Burnley @ 10 AM ET - Everton has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches at home. Burnley has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches overall. Also, there have been 0 draws in the last 5 meetings between these teams. In other words, the handwriting is on the wall that this match should get to at least a 2-1 final. Also, Everton has scored 5 goals in the two meetings (one in Carabao Cup) between these clubs this season but Burnley enters this one having scored at least 1 goal in 4 straight matches and they've scored an average of 1.7 goals during this stretch. Take advantage of the line value with the low total on this one. Also, the over is a perfect 6-0 in Burnley's last 6 road matches in league action and those matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Look for that streak to reach 7 in a row in this one. OVER 2.5 -130 in Everton

Rotation #200073: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 2.5 -135 in Wolverhampton vs West Ham United @ 10 AM ET - The last 13 meetings have each had a victor. No draws. That said, can you expect either team to fail to score here? Not in my estimation and the data supports this as well which is why I am projecting at least a 2-1 final here. West Ham is known for struggling defensively on the road while Wolverhampton is thrilled to be back home after a lot of away matches of late. So look for an emphasis on attack from the Wolves in this one but also note that they have allowed multiple goals to the Hammers in 2 of the last 3 meetings. Wolverhampton and West Ham both off 1-1 draws but, again, there has not been a draw in any of the last 13 matches. With West Ham allowing 2 goals per match on the road this season and the Wolves allowing 1.5 goals per match on the season, look for at least 2-1 in this one! OVER 2.5 -135 in Wolverhampton

Rotation #206869: Romania Liga 1: Friday OVER 2.5 +110 in Sepsi vs Farul @ 1:30 ET - Sepsi off a 1-1 draw with CFR Cluj but this followed 4 straight matches totaling at least 3 goals. Sepsi has scored an average of 2 goals in last 5 matches! Farul is off a 1-0 loss versus FCSB but this followed a 2-1 win over Rapid. Now Farul takes a step down in class to face a Sepsi club they have scored an average of 1.6 goals against in last 5 meetings. However, even though Sepsi is not quite on the level of FCSB or Rapid, they are still a solid club on the attack and will be aggressive on their home pitch after settling for a 1-1 draw with CFR Cluj last time out. OVER 2.5 +110 in Sepsi

Rotation #206865: Romania Liga 1: Friday OVER 2.5 +115 in UTA vs Botosani @ 10:30 AM ET - UTA off a scoreless draw on the road. However, they have been a different club at home in Arad. UTA is on a long 8-match unbeaten run on their home pitch. Also, UTA has seen 5 of last 6 matches at home total at least 3 goals! Those 6 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Their last 11 matches at home have averaged 3.5 goals apiece. Botosani enters this match off a 2-1 win over Iasi and 7 of their last 9 matches have totaled at least 3 goals. We get to at least 3 in this one! OVER 2.5 +115 in UTA

Rotation #200037: English Premier League Thursday OVER 3.5 +105 in Chelsea vs Manchester United @ 3:15 ET - Chelsea is on a long streak of high-scoring matches. Each of their last 5 matches across all competitions have gone over the total and all of them totaled at least 4 goals and averaged 5 goals apiece. With the defensive struggles the Blues have been having I look for Manchester United to get on the board multiple times in this match. Note also that Man U has had its own share of defensive struggles as well! Manchester United just allowed an insane 31 shot attempts in their match with Brentford and it was incredible that only 5 of them were shots on goal for the Bees and only 1 found the back of the net. In any event, Man U was outplayed in the 1-1 draw and more of the same likely on tap here in terms of conceding shots. Not only is Man U on the road, they also had allowed 2 goals per match in their 3 most recent matches prior to the 1-1 draw with the Bees. Chelsea twice blew a 1-goal lead to 10-man Burnley in a ugly display and I expect the Blues to respond with a strong emphasis on the attack here after not putting the hammer down against Burnley. The result will be plenty of goals here as Man U has plenty of attacking weapons as well but continues to have defensive liabilities of their own. OVER 3.5 +105 in Chelsea

Rotation #200041: English Premier League Thursday OVER 4 -120 in Liverpool vs Sheffield United @ 2:30 ET - Big total but Liverpool is going to open up the floodgates of a porous Blades defense in this one. The other noteworthy fact however is that Sheffield United is continuing to score goals quite well and the Reds have consistently been allowing goals in their matches. Clean sheets for Liverpool have been ultra rare and they are favored on the goal line at -3 goals in this one! That said, I am forecasting a 4-1 type final here and we cash in even on the bigger number of 4 in the marketplace on this one. 10 of Sheffield's last 11 matches have totaled at least 4 goals and those 10 matches averaged 5 goals apiece! Don't let the big number on this total scare you away. Liverpool is on their home pitch and ready for a breakout performance after a low-scoring 2-1 win featured a lot of missed opportunities and followed a 4 match stretch in which the Reds scored an average of 4 goals per match. They get at least 4 here again and I projected at least a 4-1 final in this one. OVER 4 -120 in Liverpool

Rotation #200045: English Premier League: Wednesday OVER 3.5 +105 in Manchester City vs Aston Villa @ 3:15 ET - I am aware of the injury issues here that relate to each club but I am looking for City to be very aggressive on the attack after the cagey 0-0 draw in the big showdown with Arsenal this past weekend. It is not often that City gets shutout at home and I expect a very aggressive attack from the hosts in this one. That will force Aston Villa to be aggressive if they have any hopes of staying close to City throughout this match so, despite some injury issues, do not be surprised if Villa score well in this one too as Man City does have some injury issues impacting their defense as well. City was scoring an average of 2.5 goals per match this season prior to the scoreless draw with the Gunners. Aston Villa is averaging 2 goals scored per match this season. I am expecting a 3-2 or at least 3-1 type match here as City responds big but will also not deliver a clean sheet either. OVER 3.5 +105 in Manchester City 

Rotation #200009: English Premier League: Wednesday OVER 3.5 -135 in Arsenal vs Luton Town @ 2:30 ET - Luton Town lost 4-3 versus Arsenal when they hosted them earlier this season. They also, despite injury issues, enter this match on a solid scoring run. Luton Town continues to give up goals in bunches but they also have scored in 18 straight matches! For a club that is threatened by relegation, that is an impressive result for sure. The problem for Luton Town is, even though they are averaging 1.4 goals scored per match this season, they have allowed 2.5 goals per match when away from home. Arsenal comes into this one off a frustrating scoreless draw with Manchester City so they will be in full-on attack mode here on their home pitch I am sure. Note that Arsenal has scored 2.4 goals per match this season and Luton has allowed 3 goals per match in last 5 EPL matches away from home. Arsenal is a heavy favorite in the goal line range of -3 and that makes sense to me as a 4-1 final would not surprise me in the least. Luton Town scores for the 19th EPL match in a row but they will not be able to stop the Gunners as the hosts will be on the attack throughout after a scoreless draw in the tough showdown with Manchester City. OVER 3.5 -135 in Arsenal

Rotation #200025: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 3.5 +100 in West Ham United vs Tottenham @ 3:15 ET - Tottenham has scored an average of 2 goals in last 6 meetings between these clubs. I know this is a big total at 3.5 but last week the Hotspur match with Luton Town had a total of 4 goals posted and it should have got there. It was crazy that the match ended 2-1. Look for Tottenham to cash in more of their opportunities here but the Hammers will be tough also. Looks like West Ham will not have their #1 goalkeeper so that helps the over here. What also helps is that West Ham is on their home pitch and the Hammers have scored an average of 3 goals in their last 4 matches across all competitions. This looks like a match set up well to get to at least 2-2 and a 3-2 final is the type of match I am expecting here. Tottenham L9 road matches have averaged 4 goals and this one should get to at least that as well. OVER 3.5 +100 in West Ham United

Rotation #200013: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -130 in Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace @ 2:45 ET - Crystal Palace has scored at least 1 goal in 8 straight matches in EPL action. They have averaged 1.5 goals during this stretch. Also, Crystal Palace is off B2B draws but this followed 10 of 12 EPL matches totaling at least 3 goals! Take advantage of the low total of 2.5 goals here as Bournemouth scored at least 2 goals in all 4 matches last month. The over is a perfect 3-0 last 3 Bournemouth matches. OVER 2.5 -130 in Bournemouth

Rotation #200021: English Premier League: Tuesday OVER 2.5 -115 in Nottingham Forest vs Fulham @ 2:30 ET - Due to the long-term low-scoring results in Nottingham Forest matches, we get line value here. The fact is that the aggressiveness of Fulham is not going to allow a low-scoring result here and we take advantage of the line value of this total at just 2.5 goals. Not only did the first meeting between these clubs end 5-0 Fulham, the last two meetings at Nottingham Forest have each totaled at least 4 goals. Also, each of the last 8 Fulham matches - all of them in February and March - have all totaled at least 3 goals! A perfect 8-0 run to the over that reaches 9 in a row once this match goes into the books! OVER 2.5 -115 in Nottingham Forest

Rotation #206833: Romania Liga 1: Monday OVER 2 +100 in Dinamo Bucuresti vs Petrolul Ploiesti @ 1:30 ET - Petro has scored an average of 1 goal last 4 matches but also, prior to a 1-0 win in most recent action, Petro had allowed an average of 2 goals per match in last 3 matches. Dinamo has scored an average of 1.4 goals in last 5 home matches and scored at least 1 goal in all 5 of those matches. However, they continue to have struggles defensively and in goal. Dinamo has conceded 1.3 goals per match in last 10 matches. Points are critical in the table for each club and particularly for Dinamo because they need to defend their home pitch and are currently in a relegation spot. They can jump up to a much better position with securing the full 3 points here. Trouble is they can not stop Petro either. As a result, this one gets to at least a 2-1 final. OVER 2 +100 in Dinamo Bucuresti

Rotation #201233: Italian Serie A: Monday OVER 2.5 +110 in Lecce vs Roma @ Noon ET - Both clubs have scored in each of the last 4 meetings between these clubs so look for the goals to fly here. Overall, 7 of the last 9 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals! Lecce has struggled of late but they do average 1 goal scored per match when at home. That said, they are also a dog here for good reason and Roma is likely to get multiple goals in this one. Lecce got a boost with the managerial change which was very recent. However, Roma also made a managerial change at the start of the year and they have been flying high ever since. Roma is 7-2-2 in last 11 matches. Also, the 1-0 win in their last match ended a streak of 9 straight matches totaling at least 3 goals! Those matches averaged 4 goals apiece so you can see why I like the value with this total here. Lecce will put up a fight on their home pitch but they will not be able to slow Roma down and the goals fly here. OVER 2.5 +110 in Lecce

Rotation #201229: Italian Serie A: Monday OVER 2.5 +110 in Sassuolo vs Udinese @ 9 AM ET - Sassuolo is allowing an average of 2 goals per match this season and Udinese is allowing 1.5 goals per match this season. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have totaled at least 4 goals and the 5 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Each of the last two meetings have been 2-2 draws and another result like that here would not surprise me in the least. Only 4 points in the table separate these two clubs with Sassuolo just below the relegation line and Udinese just above it. Both clubs pushing hard to earn the full 3 points in the table here and I can not foresee anything less than a 2-1 final here given all of the above. Take advantage of the plus money being offered here on the over at 2.5 goals in the market. OVER 2.5 +110 in Sassuolo

Rotation #209933: Major League Soccer: Sunday OVER 3 in Atlanta United vs Chicago Fire @ 3:45 ET - Each of last 3 times Atlanta has hosted Chicago the match has totaled at least 3 goals all 3 times. Also, those matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Additionally, Atlanta is off a 2-0 road loss but they have scored an average of 3 goals in their 2 home matches this season. Chicago has both scored and conceded in all 5 of their matches this season and each of their first 4 matches totaled at least 3 goals prior to last week's 1-1 draw. Even with that, Chicago has seen their matches average 4 goals apiece so far this MLS season and that is what I am expecting here. Look for a 2-2 type match in this one. OVER 3 in Atlanta United

Rotation #200005: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 2.5 in Manchester City vs Arsenal @ 11:30 AM ET - This is a low total because it is a clash of titans at the top so many are expecting a tight defensive-minded struggle. In typical contrarian style, I am on the other side of what most are thinking about this match-up. As solid as these clubs can be defensively and in goal lets not forget that Manchester City scores an average of 2.5 goals per match at home this season AND Arsenal is the highest scoring road club in the league as they score an average of 2.5 goals away from home. That puts this match at a 3-2 type of match. I am not saying we get that here but I am saying that getting to 2-1 is certainly not asking too much! City is in a battle with Liverpool and Arsenal at the top of the table and the only way to surpass the Gunners is to win this outright and get the full 3 points. Each team is too potent in the offensive end of the pitch to be shutout in this one the way they are going of late. Couple that with City fighting hard for the full 3 points in the table - in particular because they are at home where they are so strong - and I just don't see this one ending with less than 3 goals! Yes I know these clubs had a 1-0 battle earlier this season. However, that was then and this is now and Arsenal has had 9 STRAIGHT matches in EPL action total at least 3 goals! OVER 2.5 in Manchester City

Rotation #200001: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3.5 in Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove @ 9 AM ET - Do not let the big total keep you away from this one. No team is higher-scoring on their home pitch than Liverpool this season. The Reds are averaging 2.7 goals scored per match as a host this season! As for Brighton, their road matches have averaged totaling 3.6 goals this season. Overall, on the season in all matches, Brighton has scored an average of 1.8 goals per game. Given these numbers, don't be surprised if we see a 3-2 type match in this one and we only need 4 goals to be a winner! Look for a shootout in this one with plenty of end to end action. OVER 3.5 in Liverpool

Rotation #206837: Romania Liga 1 Play-out Sunday OVER 2 -125 in FCU 1948 Craiova vs Otelul Galati @ 7 AM ET - Galati will respond off a 1-0 loss. This followed Galati both scoring and conceding in 5 straight matches. Those 5 matches averaged 3.4 goals apiece. Also, in terms of road matches for Galati, we are testing an UNBEATEN RUN of 5 straight matches totaling at least 2 goals. Those 5 matches averaged 3.6 goals apiece and 3 of the 5 totaled at least 3 goals so here we are testing a 3-0 run to the over going for 4 in a row in Galati road matches. As for FCU 1948 Craiova, they are also off a 1-0 loss but they have an incredible streak in home matches this season. All 15 of their home matches have totaled at least 2 goals and and averaged 4 goals apiece! So this streak is UNBEATEN in all 16 home matches this season and plus 10 of the 15 did total at least 3 goals so this one is testing 10-0 run. Excellent value with this total available at 2 goals. OVER 2 -125 in FCU 1948 Craiova

Rotation #200197: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3 -115 in Brentford vs Manchester United @ 4 ET - Both teams have issues impacting their defense and both clubs have the attacking ability capable to take advantage. Brentford's last two matches hosting Manchester United each totaled 4 goals. Also, the Bees last 5 home matches in EPL action have gone 5-0 to the over and these matches averaged 4.6 goals apiece. Manchester United has averaged 2.2 goals scored in last 4 road matches in EPL action. Man U is set to respond here after losing their last away match in EPL action by a 3-1 count and I expect them to take advantage of a Bees club known for struggling in front of their own net. However, the Brentford trio of Mbeumo, Toney and Wissa should enjoy success on the attack as well and I look for an entertaining affair here that could be a 2-2 type match ending with a sharing of the spoils. Look for the over to improve to 6-0 in the Bees last 6 home matches in EPL action. OVER 3 -115 in Brentford

Rotation #206853: Romania Liga 1 Play-out Saturday: OVER 2.5 -114 in Universitatea Craiova vs Rapid Bucuresti @ 3 ET - Universitatea Craiova has gone over the total in 12 of 13 matches! The only one that did not, ironically, was a 1-1 draw hosting this same Rapid club earlier this month. That said, take advantage of the line value here with this total available at 2.5 goals. Rapid has also been trending over with 7 of their last 10 matches totaling at least 3 goals. In fact, Rapid has scored an average of 2.2 goals last 10 matches. Universitatea Craiova has scored an average of 1.8 goals last 15 matches. These averages combine for an expected final totaling 4 goals here. That is what I am projecting as well yet we only need 3 to be a winner here. I like those odds! OVER 2.5 -114 in Universitatea Craiova

Rotation #209881: Major League Soccer Saturday OVER 3 in Philadelphia Union vs Minnesota United @ 2 ET - Philadelphia's last 3 matches across all competitions have all totaled at least 4 goals. 4 of the last 5 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 5 goals! Minnesota is currently leading the West and is playing very well but you can expect Philly to be strong on their home pitch as well. As a result, look for plenty of goals in this one! Minnesota scoring an average of 2 goals this season. Philly also scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season. The over, including 2 road matches this season and their final 3 road matches last season is on a PERFECT 5-0 RUN when Minnesota is away from home. That high-scoring trend, per all of the above, certainly appears destined to make it 6 in a row! OVER 3 in Philadelphia

Rotation #206857: Romania Liga 1 Play-out Saturday: OVER 2 -135 in Universitatea Cluj vs UTA Arad @ Noon ET - Universitatea Cluj is undefeated last 4 matches and scored a total of 5 goals in the 3 victories. They also are seeking revenge for a 3-1 loss at Arad the last time these clubs met. UTA enters this one off another wild, high-scoring match! Not only was it the 3rd over in last 4 matches, all 3 of the overs have totaled at least 5 goals! More of the same expected here. Excellent value here with the low total as well. OVER 2 -135 in Universitatea Cluj

Rotation #200173: English Premier League: Saturday OVER 3 -135 in Chelsea vs Burnley @ 11 AM ET - The over is 4-0 last 4 Chelsea matches across all competitions and those 4 matches have averaged 5 goals apiece. The over is a perfect 5-0 L5 road matches for Burnley in EPL action and those 5 matches have averaged 4 goals apiece. Don't overthink it. The goals should fly in this one. Chelsea has truly been rejuvenated and is scoring very well over a long-term extended stretch now. Even Burnley is off B2B matches in which they scored multiple goals but their problem remains conceding too many goals and that continues here. Look for a 3-1 type match in this one. OVER 3 -135 in Chelsea

Rotation #206861: Romania Liga 1 Play-out Saturday: OVER 2 -118 in Botosani vs Iasi @ 9:45 AM ET - Both clubs off shutout losses so a perfect spot for a bounce back. Speaking of perfect, the over is a perfect 6-0 the last 6 times Botosani has hosted Iasi. Generally speaking, Botosani tends to score better on their home pitch. Note also that Iasi had scored a goal in 4 straight road matches prior to last week's shutout defeat. Excellent value here with the low total as well. OVER 2 -118 in Botosani

Rotation #206845: Romania Liga 1 Play-off Friday OVER in Sepsi vs CFR Cluj @ 2:30 ET - Sepsi matches have totaled at least 3 goals in 4 straight. So here were are testing a 4-0 run to the over that appears to be set up perfectly for a 5th straight winner. Sepsi has scored an average of 2 goals last 4 matches and CFR Cluj has scored an average of 2 goals last 11 matches. Also, the last 6 meetings between these clubs have all gone over the total as all 6 totaled at least 3 goals. This one will too and we take advantage of the +110 money line range on this over at 2.5 goals on a beautiful spring weather day in Romania. OVER in Sepsi

Rotation #206841: Romania Liga 1 Play-out Friday OVER in Voluntari vs Hermannstadt @ 11:30 AM ET - With this total available at just 2 goals, we have solid value on the over here. Not only is Voluntari off a 4-3 loss in most recent match, that was the 4th time in 5 matches that their match has totaled at least 3 goals. It was also the 2nd time in 3 matches that they have allowed 4 goals! As for Hermannstadt, they are off a 3-0 victory and it was the 2nd time in 3 matches that they have scored at least 3 goals. Also, both teams have scored in each of the last 3 meetings and also each of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 2 goals and that includes 3 of them totaling at least 3 goals. So this is testing an unbeaten over run last 5 including 3 winners for a 3-0 mark. Look for tis one to make it 4 in a row. OVER in Voluntari

Rotation #225609: Euro Champ Qualifying | Final Tuesday OVER 2 in Wales vs Poland @ 3:45 ET - Poland has some injury issues and that could open things up for Wales to attack the right-hand side. Also I like the fact that Wales is on their home pitch for this one. However, Poland comes in off off a huge high-scoring win - just like Wales - and I expect the boosted confidence to lead to plenty of attacking in this one. Poland has scored at least 1 goal in 5 straight matches and averaged 2 goals apiece during this unbeaten run. Wales has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches and they have had 6 straight matches total at least 2 goals. We have excellent line value here with this total available at 2 goals. Wales has scored 2.3 goals per match last 6 matches but also allowed a goal in 4 straight matches. Poland has some issues at right-back so I can not anticipate them delivering a clean sheet here either. In fact, in Euro Champ Qualifying action, Poland has allowed a goal in 3 straight matches. Look for at least a 2-1 final in this one given all of the above. OVER 2 in Wales

Rotation #225601: Euro Champ Qualifying | Final Tuesday OVER 2 in Georgia vs Greece @ 1 ET - Georgia will get a boost with the return of Kvaratskhelia for this one plus they are on their home pitch. However, as hot as Georgia has been in terms of scoring goals on their home pitch, Greece comes into this one rolling large after a 5-0 win over Kazakhstan! Georgia has scored at least 1 goal in 7 straight matches. Even though that included some weaker foes too, it bears mentioning that Georgia has scored multiple goals in 4 straight matches on their home pitch! This is a confident group here hosting but the confidence level of Greece in this key final qualifying match is also sky high! Greece has scored at least 1 goal in 5 of 6 matches and has averaged 3 goals scored per match in those 5 matches in which they have made the net ripple. Like Georgia, it is has included some weaker competition but also Kazakhstan had truly been playing well before Greece shredded them. Also, this was on the heels of an impressive 2-2 draw with France. The value of an over 2 here is certainly huge and I just can not see this one ending with anything less than a 2-1 final given the current level of play of both of these clubs. OVER 2 in Georgia

Rotation #202089: Spanish La Liga 2: Monday OVER 2 -125 in Albacete vs Racing Ferrol @ 3:30 ET - Each of last 4 meetings have totaled at least 2 goals and have averaged 4 goals apiece. When these clubs met earlier this season it was a wild 5-4 win for Racing Ferrol. They are now the visitors in the rematch and they have had 4 straight matches total at least 2 goals and these 4 have averaged 3 goals apiece. As for Albacete, they are out for revenge here and they also have been trending to the over. Albacete has had 5 straight matches total at least 2 goals and these have averaged 3 goals apiece. The over is a perfect 3-0 for each club in their matches this month so we are testing trending that is 100% x 2 in the month of March. Grab the value of the low total here with this one available at 2 goals making it a solid investment opportunity. OVER 2 -125 in Albacete

Rotation #210601: Argentine Nacional B: Monday OVER 1.75 -135 in Almirante Brown vs Gimnasia Mendoza @ 3 ET - 4 of the last 5 meetings have totaled at least 2 goals and these 5 matches have averaged 3 goals apiece. Almirante Brown has seen each of last two home matches total at least 2 goals and they have scored 3 goals in those matches. They should get on the scoreboard again here at home but Gimnasia Mendoza has been trending over this season with each of last 6 matches totaling at least 2 goals. Those 6 matches have averaged 3 goals and each of last 4 matches have totaled at least 3 goals so this one testing an over run that is a perfect 4-0. Grab the value of the low total here. OVER 1.75 -135 in Almirante Brown

Rotation #202081: Spanish La Liga 2: Sunday OVER 2 -120 in Levante vs Eiche @ 1:30 ET - I like the odds of this match getting to 2-1 at least. Note that the last 3 times Levante has hosted Eiche each match totaled at least 2 goals and 2 of the 3 reached the 3 goal mark. Excellent line value here with this total available at 2 goals. Eiche is running hot right now and has won 4 straight matches and scored an average of 2 goals per match during this heater. They will not slow down here on the road but you also know that Levante is going to put up a fight on their home pitch. Note that Levante has scored 4 goals last 4 matches and they are at a critical position in the table so they really could do well to earn the full 3 points here. Entering Sunday's action, Levante is one of 7 clubs with between 44 and 49 points in the table. Knowing that Levante is going to struggle to stop a red hot Eiche side yet at home and at a critical stage the season, I see quite an attack from both clubs materializing in this one and an eventual 2-1 type match. OVER 2 -120 in Levante

Rotation #202069: Spanish La Liga 2: Sunday OVER 2 -120 in Real Valladolid vs Eibar @ 11:15 AM ET - I like the odds of this match getting to 2-1 at least. Note that these two clubs have the fewest draws in the league this season with 6 and 7, respectively. Their blended draw rate, as a result, is only 21% as a result and that is very low for this league. Can we expect each club to score though? Absolutely! Real Valladolid is averaging 1.13 goals scored per match and Eibar is averaging 1.55 goals scored per match this season. Eibar is one of the top scoring clubs in the league plus each club is allowing 1 goal per match this season. This one has 2-1 written all over it. Real Valladolid has had 5 straight matches total at least 2 goals. Eibar has had their last 4 matches average 2.5 goals apiece. Also, the last 8 meetings between these clubs have all totaled at least 2 goals and the matches have averaged 3 goals apiece and 4 of them did reach at least the 3-goal mark. So this play, with the total at 2 goals, is testing a match-up run that is UNBEATEN last 8 and also PERFECT 4 in terms of winning overs! That run reaches 5 in a row here! OVER 2 -120 in Real Valladolid

Rotation #202065: Spanish La Liga 2: Sunday OVER 2 in Amorebieta vs Gijon @ 9 AM ET - Both clubs have scored in each of the last 3 meetings so we should get this match to 1-1. But what about the odds of a draw? Well, this clubs have a blended draw rate of only 30% this season. The odds favor at least a 2-1 final given the above plus the fact Gijon has gone 4 straight matches without a draw and Amorebieta has gone 3 straight matches without a draw. OVER 2 in Amorebieta

Rotation #222681: International Friendly: Saturday OVER 2.5 -135 in France vs Germany @ 4 ET - Germany has work to do. They have struggled but they did beat France the last time these clubs met. That is added incentive for the hosts to put on quite the show here on their home pitch and Germany has been a bit out of sorts and with a number of lineup changes, could again have trouble protecting in front of their own goal. France will show them no mercy but the visitors are also hungry to get past their recent struggles and attack with proficiency in this one. They still have plenty of dangerous attacking talent but also are without their top goalie for this match. France will take advantage. Look for a 2-1 type battle in this one. OVER 2.5 -135 in France

Rotation #222677: International Friendly: Saturday OVER 2.5 +100 in England vs Brazil @ 3 ET - Brazil is a team in transition in terms of leadership on the pitch as well as a backline featuring a new look. That is bad news against an England team always loaded with attacking talent. England will be able to take advantage of the new-look backline of Brazil but I also do expect the visitors to get on the board as well. They are hungry for turning things around after a rare poor run of form. That said, they will be willing to take some chances here as they look to get their attack going again. The result should be at least a 2-1 final here given the situation with the Brazil and the fact England is so tough on their home pitch and should score multiple goals here. OVER 2.5 +100 in England

Rotation #209829: Major League Soccer: Saturday OVER 2.5 -115 in New York vs Inter Miami @ 2 ET - We are getting some line value here because of Messi being out. Inter Miami has proven they can score plenty and have plenty of scoring options outside of just Messi. At the same time, New York also continues to get involved in high-scoring matches! The Red Bulls have had all 3 matches this month go over the total as each one totaled 3 goals. Inter Miami has had all 5 matches across all competitions this month total go over the total as all 5 totaled at least 4 goals! That means you have double perfect trends we can test here. 3-0 and 5-0 and plus there is even more value here because Inter Miami is without #1 goalie Drake Callender and that means little-used Carlos Dos Santos is getting the call here! Lets take advantage because the visitors are still ultra dangerous on the attack but will be more susceptible in goal now too! OVER 2.5 -115 in New York

Rotation #222665: International Friendly: Saturday OVER 2.5 +110 in Ireland vs Belgium @ 1 ET - Even with Belgium down a few of their top players including Kevin DeBruyne, this club still is loaded with young attacking talent. Ireland has an interim manager and they are looking for a turnaround so I expect them to be quite aggressive here even though this is just a friendly. That said, look for them to get on the board but their a team in a bit of disarray and will have some defensive shortcomings and are outclassed here. Belgium should pull away as this match goes on as they have young guns continuing to look to prove themselves. This has the makings of a 2-1 final and I will grab the plus money on the over in this one. The hosts should make the net ripple once on their home pitch but they are outclassed here. OVER 2.5 +110 in Ireland

Rotation #222629: International Friendly: Friday OVER 2 -145 in Romania vs Northern Ireland @ 3:45 ET - The ability to have a 2 here, even at extra juice, is a huge value as 2 is such a key number in soccer totals. Romania is a solid money line favorite here at home but I also foresee an aggressive Northern Ireland side making the net ripple in this one. Hence, I am expecting at least a 2-1 final here. Note that Northern Ireland shutout Romania once in the last 5 meetings but in the other 4 meetings Romania scored an average of 1.5 goals. Also, Northern Ireland has scored a goal in each of the two most recent meetings. 4 of last 6 Northern Ireland matches have totaled at least 2 goals and the 4 that did actually averaged 4 goals apiece! Romania has scored at least one goal in 12 of last 14 matches across all competitions and averaged scoring 2.3 goals per match in those dozen matches. Given the above, you can see why I am looking for a 2-1 type match here and we have the added value of this total at 2 goals readily available in the marketplace. OVER 2 -145 in Romania 

Rotation #222645: International Friendly: Friday OVER 2.5 -120 in Netherlands vs Scotland @ 3:45 ET - The last meeting was also a friendly and was a 2-2 draw. I expect a similar result here. 10 of last 12 Netherlands matches across all competitions have totaled at least 3 goals. In just looking at their last 25 matches, Netherlands has scored in all but ONE of the 25 and averaged 2.2 goals scored per match. Scotland has seen 14 of last 19 matches total at least 3 goals. Scotland has scored an average of 1.8 goals per match in their last 25 matches. Given all of the above, you can see why I expect to see the goals to fly here in an international friendly that may not feature intense defense. Another 2-2 entertaining draw would not surprise me in the least. OVER 2.5 -120 in Netherlands

Rotation #222633: International Friendly: Friday OVER 2.5 in Norway vs Czech Republic @ 1 ET - Historically there has been scoring from each club in each of the last 3 meetings and 3 of the last 4 meetings have totaled at least 3 goals. Norway has scored an average of 3 goals in their last 7 matches across all competitions and they are on their home pitch here. Czech Republic has one embarrassing shutout loss in last 8 matches across all competitions but scored an average of 2 goals in the other 7 matches. It does look like Norway should have both Haaland and Odegaard available for this one which further boosts their attacking power on their home pitch. Even without them I would still like the over here given the above scoring numbers for each of these clubs and the fact that this match is a friendly and could be lacking in defensive intensity. OVER 2.5 in Norway 

Rotation #225417: Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals: Thursday OVER 2.75 -115 in Poland vs Estonia @ 3:45 ET - This total holding at 2.75 in some spots is leading to solid line value here as there are multiple indicators here for 3 or more goals in this one. Poland is so strong on their home pitch and are a heavy favorite here with good reason. They also have played much better since Probierz took the managerial reins from Santos. Poland fully capable of getting this one over the total all by themselves but I do expect Estonia to take advantage of a very aggressive Poland attack and so the big underdogs should make the net ripple once on the counterattack. Estonia is heavily outclassed here so they have no choice but to take some chances but this will leave them vulnerable in front of their own net as well! Poland is a 2-goal favorite on the goal line with good reason and will be relentless on the attack as they have been reminded of their most recent match-up with Estonia being a 1-0 loss back in 2018. This is payback and look for at least a 3-1 final. OVER 2.75 -115 in Poland

Rotation #225409: Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals: Thursday OVER 2.5 +110 in Greece vs Kazakhstan @ 3:45 ET - This is a great spot or an over. Kazakhstan has played well and is playing with a lot of confidence right now. That makes for a dangerous dog. However, Greece is a heavy 3 to 1 money line favorite for a reason here. Speaking of 3 to 1, that is the type of match I expect here and 2-1 would get the job done just as well. Take advantage of the plus money available on the over 2.5 here as Greece has scored an average of 2.2 goals in last 5 matches. Also, Kazakhstan has both scored and conceded in 4 straight matches and all 4 totaled at least 3 goals. Look for this run of overs to reach 5 in a row here! OVER 2.5 +110 in Greece

Rotation #225401: Euro Champ Qualifying | Semi-Finals: Thursday OVER 2 -125 in Georgia vs Luxembourg @ 1 ET - This total has dropped from 2.25 to 2 because each club is without one attacker. However, there is still enough attacking talent on each side and so this is a value spot for a play on the over with this total held down at 2 goals. Luxembourg has a knack for lower-scoring matches but Georgia will dictate the flow of this match on their home pitch. That said, note that Georgia has seen each of last 6 matches total at least 3 goals and these 6 have averaged 5 goals apiece! Look for this run of overs to reach 7 in a row here! OVER 2 -125 in Georgia

Rotation #226001: English National League: Wednesday OVER 2.5 -115 in Halifax Town vs Chesterfield @ 3:45 ET - Great match-up for goals here. Chesterfield is on the road and looking to wrap up the league title here. They are the leading scorer in the league and are averaging 2.5 goals scored per match. However, on the road they are allowing 1.5 goals per match this season and have been far from water-tight defensively. That spells at least some trouble here as Halifax has turned their season around and moved up the table thanks to wins in 6 of their last 7. In those 6 victories, Halifax has averaged 2 goals scored per win! Overall, Halifax Town is on a run in which 5 straight matches at home have totaled at least 3 goals! Look for this over run to make it 6 in a row here! The last time these clubs met the match totaled 5 goals and a similar result would not surprise me in the least! Chesterfield has had 6 of last 7 road matches total at least 3 goals and those 7 matches averaged 4 goals apiece! OVER 2.5 -115 in Halifax Town

Rotation #201189: English League Two: Tuesday OVER 2.75 -119 in Bradford City vs Notts County @ 3:45 ET - Notts County won the first meeting this season 4-2 which sets this up as a solid revenge spot for Bradford City. While I certainly do expect the hosts to respond here, they also have allowed 7 goals in their last 2 matches so they will again struggle to slow down Notts County in this one. Notts County consistently gets involved in high-scoring matches and so we have excellent line value here with this total available at less than 3 goals. Note that 6 of last 8 Notts County matches have totaled at least 3 goals and those 6 matches averaged 4 goals apiece. Going further back it is an incredible 17 of 21 run in terms of Notts County matches totaling at least 3 goals and I am happy to put this 81% run to the test here! OVER 2.75 -119 in Bradford City

Rotation #210705: Argentine Nacional B: Tuesday 10* OVER 1.75 -116 in Gimnasia y Tiro vs Almirante Brown @ 3 ET - Gimnasia y Tiro has scored at least 1 goal in 6 of last 7 matches and averaged 1 goal scored per match during this stretch. Almirante Brown has seen 3 of last 4 matches total at least 2 goals and 2 of those 3 reached the 3 goal mark. We got solid line value with the low total posted on this match and we will not hesitate to get involved here. 10* OVER 1.75 -116 in Gimnasia y Tiro

Rotation #201085: English League Two: Monday OVER 2.5 -114 in Crawley Town vs Stockport County @ 3:45 ET - I like match-ups like this for goals when you have two solid clubs and the stronger club is on the road. That's because the hosts are going to put up a valiant effort hosting a top of the table type of club but, at the same time, the visitors are a powerhouse for a reason. In this case, Stockport County and Crawley Town have met 3 times in the past 18 months and the matches have all totaled at least 3 goals and averaged 5 goals apiece! Look for the over run to reach a perfect 4-0 with another high-scoring battle here. Crawley is off B2B wins by a 2-1 count entering this one. Stockport County is struggling a bit of a late and is off a 2-2 draw and hungry to get back on track. Though they have struggled a bit of late, the visitors are still a club that is scoring an average of 2 goals per match this season but also allowing about 1.5 goals per match when traveling. Crawley Town is also allowing about 1.5 goals per match this season but also scoring 1.7 goals per match when at home and they are in solid form right now. The goals should again fly between these clubs as their match-up run to the over reaches 4 in a row! OVER 2.5 -114 in Crawley Town

Rotation #202045: Spanish La Liga 2: Monday OVER 2 -113 in Andorra vs Amorebieta @ 3:30 ET - These are the bottom two clubs in the league but Andorra is a different club when at home. Note that 7 of their last 9 home matches have totaled at least 2 goals and those 7 matches averaged 3 goals apiece! As for Amorebieta, they won the first meeting between these clubs by a count of 3-0. That means that Andorra is out for revenge here but it also means that Amorebieta has some added confidence as well. Note that they are off a 1-0 loss but, prior to this, had scored a goal in 3 of last 4 matches prior to this. Their problem tends to be in the defensive zone where they have allowed 16 goals in their last 13 matches. Could we see a 1-1 draw here? Yes but both clubs are desperate for the full 3 points in the table and I feel we will see a strong push here and a 2-1 final as a result. OVER 2 -113 in Andorra

Rotation #209821: Major League Soccer: Sunday OVER 2.5 -135 in New England Revolution vs FC Cincinnati @ 2 ET - Look for the goals to fly here. There has not been a clean sheet from either club in any of the last 6 meetings. Those matches averaged 4 goals apiece and all but one of the six matches totaled at least 4 goals so this one testing an 83% RUN to the over! All the stats here included the Concacaf Champions Cup action going as well and note that New England had scored an average of 2 goals per match last 4 matches prior to resting guys in their 1-1 draw earlier this week (they already had a big lead on the aggregate). Cincinnati is the defending champ but struggling to score goals in MLS so far but have scored well in Concacaf action. They will take advantage here of a NE club allowing goals at an alarming rate thus far. New England has allowed 11 goals in their last 4 matches against MLS clubs (one was a friendly). But they are on their home pitch and I am expected them to get their attacking going as Cincy has not been perfectly tight defensively thus far. At the same time, NE focus on attacking to finally get a win after an 0-3 start this season means Cincy can make them pay on the counterattack! OVER 2.5 -135 in New England

Rotation #200413: English FA Cup | Quarter-Finals: Sunday OVER 3.5 +115 in Manchester United vs Liverpool @ 11:30 AM ET - The last meeting was a scoreless draw but this followed the 7 most recent meetings averaging 5 goals apiece! We'll see goals here as Man U has scored at least 1 goal in 13 straight matches (averaging 2 goals scored per match) while Liverpool is certainly favored for a reason here! I am looking for a match finishing in the 3-2 range! 8 of last 12 Liverpool matches - as they continue prolific scoring run - have totaled at least 4 goals. The Reds have conceded at least one goal in 10 of last 14 matches. More of the same here! OVER 3.5 +115 in Manchester United

Rotation #200157: English Premier League: Sunday OVER 3 in West Ham United vs Aston Villa @ 10 AM ET - Aston Villa has had 7 straight EPL matches total at least 3 goals and 5 of the 7 totaled 4 or more so, with this pick, we are testing a 5-0 run going for 6 in a row. Aston Villa has scored 3.3 goals per match in their last 3 EPL matches away from home. However, they have also allowed an average of 2 goals per match last 5 matches overall in EPL action. West Ham has seen each of last 4 home matches across all competitions total 4 or more goals and these matches averaged 5 goals apiece. So this pick is testing double perfect angles with a 4-0 home angle involving West Ham and a 5-0 EPL angle involving Aston Villa. With the way both these clubs have been attacking of late plus the fact Ollie Watkins should play here, look for the goals to fly in this one! OVER 3 in West Ham United

Rotation #200409: English FA Cup | Quarter-Finals: Sunday OVER 3 -125 in Chelsea vs Leicester @ 8:45 AM ET - Leicester has scored in 13 straight road matches across all competitions. Chelsea is a heavy favorite, including by 1.5 goals on the goal line, with good reason of course. Look for this to get to the 3-1 range as a result. 7 of last 9 matches across all competitions for Chelsea have totaled at least 4 goals. This one will too! OVER 3 -125 in Chelsea

Rotation #209973: Major League Soccer: Saturday OVER 2.5 -130 in Chicago Fire vs CF Montreal @ 2 ET - Love the fact that Montreal has both scored and conceded each of the last two weeks and both matches totaled at least 3 goals AND Chicago has both scored and conceded in each of its 3 matches this season and all 3 totaled at least 3 goals! In other words, this play at over 2.5 is testing a trend that is 100% PERFECT on the season and all set for 4 in a row. The important thing about each of these 2 clubs over trending is there are no clean sheets involved! The trends involves both scoring and conceding and that is why I am anticipating a 2-2 type match in this one! OVER 2.5 -130 in Chicago

Rotation #200405: English FA Cup: Saturday OVER 3.5 +100 in Manchester City vs Newcastle United @ 1:30 ET - Kevin DeBruyne is out for City but Jack Grealish is back. Also helping the odds on a high-scoring match here is that City #1 goalie Ederson is out for this match. I do look for Newcastle to get on the board here at least once, if not twice, but of course City is a heavy favorite with good reason. That is why I am calling for at least a 3-1 final here. Note that Manchester City will be chomping at the bit to get to back to their aggressive ways after a bit of a disappointing 1-1 result with Liverpool in league action last week. Prior to that, City was averaging 2.6 goals scored per match last 30 matches across all competitions. They tend to be a scoring machine when on their home pitch as well! The last meeting between these clubs totaled 5 goals. Also, Newcastle enters this one with their last 13 matches having averaged 4.3 goals per match! 9 of the 13 totaled at least 4 goals and I look for the high-scoring trend to continue here. Newcastle United has been known for a leaky backline but also their attackers will take advantage of City having to go with #2 goalie option here. OVER 3.5 +100 in Manchester City