CFL Archive | |||||||
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
09-21-19 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +3 | Top | 37-38 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Saturday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - Love this situation. The Blue Bombers opened up around a pick'em in this game so, of course, the markets jumped all over one of the best teams in the CFL and this line has moved to a -3. Keep in mind, Winnipeg is off a bye week but has a game versus Hamilton on deck. Why does that matter? The Tiger-Cats are the #1 team in the East and also handed Winnipeg their first loss of the season! Don't be surprised if the Bombers make the mistake of looking right past the Alouettes in this one. That will prove to be a mistake because, as strong as Winnipeg is this season, they are still just a .500 team on the road. Montreal has a winning record at home and has been getting strong QB play from Vernon Adams. Of course Winnipeg has been dealing with the QB injury to Matt Nichols. They do get RB Andrew Harris back this week but the Als have a great rusher of their own in William Stanback. They will call this one an upset but, from a situational perspective, truly the home team is the one that should win this game and I won't be surprised when they do. The Alouettes are off a loss and respond here as they catch the Blue Bombers in the right situation to knock them off. 10* MONTREAL |
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09-20-19 | Calgary v. Toronto OVER 53.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -107 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - I am aware of the injury to wide receiver Reggie Begelton for the Stamps. However, Calgary also is going to be without their leading tackler, linebacker Cory Greenwood. That said, Toronto is going to score their fair share of points in this one. This is particularly true because they are at home for this one also. But I just don't see the Argos being able to stop a potent West Division offense even with the Stampeders being with a top wide receiver. Calgary still have plenty of firepower all over the field and the Stamps enter this game off a low-scoring win. Rarely do the Stampeders ever have back to back low-scoring performances. Prior to the tight win over Hamilton, Calgary had averaged 31 points per game in their 3 prior games. As for the Argonauts offense, they seemed to respond to their "wake-up call" of a late July shutout loss to Edmonton. Ever since then Toronto has scored an average of 30 points per game and 4 of their 5 games since being shutout by the Eskimos have gone over the total. Look for the Stampeders over to improve to 3-0 in their past 3 road games with a high-scoring contest expected here. The past two seasons, when Calgary is facing a team with a losing record in a game played in the second half of a season, the over is 3-1. Toronto's over is 4-1 this season when facing a team with a winning record. Also, in September games the Argonauts are 9-1 to the over. All these trends continue Friday. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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09-14-19 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan OVER 49.5 | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7 ET - There are a lot of trends that point to the under for this game and their first match-up this season stayed well under the total. However, I am riding high with the over here because the Riders are off back to back sub-par showings on offense this season. Normally Saskatchewan has bounced back every single time off a low-scoring game and I fully expect that here after scoring just 10 points last week. QB Cody Fajardo and the Riders are fired up for a strong game and they want to stretch the field and put pressure on the Als and force them to play catch-up. Saskatchewan does not want to allow the Alouettes to get into a ball-control ground-based attack that serves them well. The Riders want to force QB Vernon Adams and Montreal out of their typical came plan. By the way, the Als are also off a low-scoring effort last week and, like the Riders, Montreal has shown a knack for bouncing back with strong games offensively when off a rare dud in terms of offensive production. Montreal had scored 27 points or more in 5 of 7 games previous to being held to 21 points last week. The Roughriders, prior to back to back low-scoring results (first time this season!) had averaged 31 points per game over an 8-week stretch. I am looking for a 33-27 type game here and that total is double digits in excess of the current posted number on this game. Keep in mind, non-conference match-ups for these teams (their own earlier match-up this season notwithstanding) have proven to be high-scoring affairs more often than not. This one flies over the total as the weather forecast is also a good one here. 10* OVER the total in Saskatchewan |
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09-13-19 | Ottawa v. BC -5 | Top | 5-29 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #690 Friday 10* Top Play BC Lions (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 10 PM ET - A match-up of struggling teams and, of course, many were surprised to see a 1-10 BC team open up as a 7.5 point favorite over a 3-8 Ottawa team! Of course the markets have since pounded this "mistake" by the oddsmakers and the line has dropped down to the -5 range. I have said it many times before and I'll say it many times again in the future, the oddsmakers don't really make "mistakes". The line was set this way with good reason and I love the Lions in this spot. BC is still searching for their first home win. Even though they've still been losing in recent weeks the Lions have made improvements on defense and the offensive line is also giving better protection to QB Mike Reilly as evidenced in last week's game. BC is extra hungry to get that home win but also has extra fire about this game because of hosting former Lions QB Jonathan Jennings whom jettisoned BC to go to Ottawa in this past offseason. Rest assured, BC wants this game very much and they are starting to jell despite what their record would otherwise indicate. Take advantage of the "false" line move here and lay those points knowing that you're getting the best of the number and that you've got a highly motivated team that appears poised to play their best game of the season tonight! Look for the Lions to improve to 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these teams as they get the much-needed home win tonight and it comes by a convincing margin. 10* BC LIONS |
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09-07-19 | Calgary v. Edmonton OVER 47 | Top | 33-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Edmonton Eskimos @ Calgary Flames @ 7 ET - It looks like it was an easy under last week when these same teams met on Monday in Calgary but it truly wasn't. The final score of the game took place on the very FIRST play of the fourth quarter and that brought the game total to 34 points but then there was no more scoring in the final 15 minutes of action. That is not the big story though as the bigger story was the fact that in terms of field goals and touchdowns there were EIGHT scores but the problem for over players was that SIX were field goals and only TWO were touchdowns. Once again, just like last week, the team swill move the ball quite well but this time we'll have more points to show for it. The Stampeders got Bo Levi Mitchell back last week and he threw for 263 yards while running back KaDeem Carey ran for 143 yards. Edmonton's defense will again be put to the test this week. The difference this week though is that, at home, the Eskimos score much better. QB Trevor Harris completed 77% of his passes last week for over 200 yards but Edmonton managed only three field goals and zero touchdowns. That won't happen again as they respond big at home and I look for Harris to really make this game all about an aerial assault on his part. There will be a ton of big passing from the home team in this one. The over improves to 3-0 this season when the Eskimos are a home favorite of 7 points or less. Calgary's over also improves to 3-0 in road games where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points. 10* OVER the total in Edmonton |
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09-06-19 | BC v. Montreal OVER 50 | Top | 16-21 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Montreal Alouettes vs BC Lions @ 7:30 ET - Both teams are off bye weeks which were preceded by games that went under the total. However, BC is 4-2 to the over when coming off a bye week. Also, Montreal's game at Toronto two weeks ago had no business staying under the total. The teams combined for over 900 yards of offense! Considering that as well as the fact that the Alouettes entered that game on a 4-2 run to the over, I love the over in this match-up. Montreal has now allowed over 100 yards on the ground each of their past two games plus an average of 400 passing yards their past two games! As for the Lions defense, they are allowing 32.1 points per game on the season. Only Toronto has allowed more points per game than BC. Mike Reilly did throw for nearly 300 yards in the Lions low-scoring loss prior to their bye week. They'll put a lot more points on the board in this inter-divisional match-up. This one will be a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Montreal |
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09-02-19 | Edmonton v. Calgary OVER 47 | Top | 9-25 | Loss | -116 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Calgary Stampeders vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 4:30 ET - I am well aware of the fact that this is a fierce rivalry game and these types of games tend to be lower scoring. However, this total is simply far too low given the situation. The Eskimos Trevor Harris continues to light it up through the air and leads the CFL in passing yards. The Stampeders are getting a boost this week with the return of their starting QB Bo Levi Mitchell. Calgary will be taking on an Edmonton defense that has allowed an average of 30 points the past two weeks. As for the Stamps defense, they entered last week's bye having allowed an average of 33 points per game their past two games. These teams met a month ago and Calgary won 24-18 but the Eskimos got 373 passing yards from Harris in that game and certainly should have scored much more than 18 points. That low-scoring result is helping to give us value here with Monday's total. This total has dropped to as low as a 47 after opening up above a 50. I'll take the extra value as Mitchell couldn't wait to get back on the field and it helps that his return comes at home while I also don't see the weekly aerial assault display from Harris slowing down here. Plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Calgary |
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09-01-19 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan -5 | Top | 17-19 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 33 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #690 Sunday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3 ET - This line was as high as a -7 on the Riders and has dropped down to as low as a -5 as of early game day morning. In my typical preferred contrarian style, I am fading the market move and grabbing the extra line value here. This is Saskatchewan's chance to catch the Blue Bombers in the standings. How can they do that when they are 4 points back? Well the key is that this is the first game of a "home and home" series with the Bombers as they meet again in Winnipeg next week. Saskatchewan also gets the benefit of catching the Blue Bombers without their starting QB and now their RB will miss both games of this series. Andrew Harris was suspended by the league for two games and that certainly will hurt the ground attack of the Bombers. That will put even more pressure on QB Chris Streveler (filling in for the injured Mike Nichols). Yes Streveler was under center for Winnipeg's win last week but he was held under 100 passing yards in that game! The Roughriders, conversely, saw Cody Fajardo have another big game at the pivot for them last week as he threw for 241 yards. Saskatchewan is known as the toughest place for road teams to play in this league and you know it will be rocking for this huge match-up hosting the top team in the division standings. That said, I am happy to lay the small points here in what shapes up to be a home blowout. The Riders are riding a 5-0 SU/ATS win streak heading into this one and I look for the Roughriders to improve to 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home meetings with Winnipeg. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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08-25-19 | Montreal v. Toronto OVER 54 | Top | 28-22 | Loss | -108 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Montreal Alouettes @ Noon ET - The Argonauts are having a miserable season but are at home where they have averaged 27 points per game their past two games. While Toronto is starting to turn the corner (finally) in terms of offensive production at home, the Argos defense is a major weakness. Toronto has allowed 35.3 points per game this season and they now host a red hot Alouettes offensive unit. Montreal has scored an average of 38 points per game in its past two road games and this is a team that has plenty of momentum. After an impressive OT win at Calgary last week, the Als have now won 4 of their past 6 games and Vernon Adams, Jr. continues to pile up yardage through the air for the Alouettes. Look for the over to improve to 4-1 in Montreal's last 5 Sunday games. The over is 10-5 the last 15 times the Argonauts have been a home dog. McLeod Bethel-Thompson, Argos QB, has thrown for 543 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs his past two games. Both teams getting solid QB of late and this one turns into a shootout. That is why the game total opened up at a 55.5 and now that the markets have pushed it lower (54) it is "go time" with this totals selection as I don't foresee many defensive stops in this one! 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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08-24-19 | Ottawa v. Saskatchewan -9.5 | Top | 18-40 | Win | 100 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #684 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Saskatchewan is off a bye week. Ottawa is off another disappointing loss last week as their offense continues to flounder. The Roughriders also are playing this game with revenge since a Week Two loss to the Redblacks. Ever since that game in Ottawa, this is a case of two teams going in opposite directions. The Redblacks have lost 6 of their past 7 games and have been held to an average of just 11.5 points in those 6 losses! The Riders, on the other hand, have won 5 of their past 6 games and they have averaged 31.2 points in those 5 wins. Saskatchewan enters this game fresh off a bye and they are known for being very tough at home where they have arguably the best home field advantage in the CFL with a strong fan base. The Riders have won 4 straight games and will make it 5 in a row here. Considering the big difference in the way the offensive units have been performing for these two teams, as well as the revenge angle and the home field edge, it is plain to see why I am willing to lay the big points here. The line opened up at 10.5 with good reason but has fallen to a 9.5 and I look for the Riders to win this game by at least a pair of touchdowns. The Roughriders are also 2nd in the league for total offense and total defense while the Redblacks rank near the bottom in both of those categories. Also, if you look at those stats from Week 3 onward, the difference in these teams is even more pronounced. In terms of trending, Ottawa is 2-4 ATS when off a loss against a divisional foe. The Riders are 4-2 ATS when coming off a bye week and are also on a 6-2 ATS run in August games. More of the same expected here. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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08-23-19 | Winnipeg +6.5 v. Edmonton | Top | 34-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Edmonton Eskimos @ 9 ET - Big line move toward Edmonton here. That is because everyone is aware that Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols left last week's game in the 4th quarter with an injury. However, what is being under-estimated by the betting markets here is that Blue Bombers back-up QB Chris Streveler got plenty of experience filling in for Nichols last season plus he has seen action this season as well. He is not a "normal" back-up in the sense that he gets used at times throughout games. That said, this is a huge game where a pair of teams are battling it out for West Division supremacy. Yes the Eskimos have revenge but they are being overvalued here. The Blue Bombers have covered 5 of the last 7 meetings between these teams. Also, Winnipeg is 8-4 SU and ATS when, in the 2nd half of a season, they are playing against a team with a winning record. The Eskimos are 6-15 ATS (including 1-3 ATS this season) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Prior to last week's cover against a bad Argonauts team, Edmonton was on a 3-7 ATS run in August games. That poor trending resumes here! The Blue Bombers are 4-0 SU in divisional games this season while the Eskimos are only 2-2 SU in divisional games. 10* WINNIPEG |
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08-17-19 | Hamilton -2 v. Ottawa | Top | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 4 ET - Both teams have injuries at the QB position but the Tiger-Cats are getting much better play at that spot. Dane Evans helped lead Hamilton back from a big late-game deficit last week and certainly has not been making the same mistakes that the Ottawa QB has. The Redblacks have had to turn to Dominique Davis at the pivot and he has a 5 TD's against 11 INT's! Davis leads the CFL in interceptions and, of course, that is not a category for which one wants to hold that distinction! Though some will view this game as a big motivational edge for the Redblacks as they host the first place team in their division, there is actually another way to look at this that I believe is a key factor in motivation. The first-place Tiger-Cats have lost 5 straight meetings with Ottawa. Their head coach, Orlondo Steinauer, certainly hasn't forgotten as he referenced that they (Redblacks) got them good last year. In other words, the Ti-Cats are out for some revenge this week and I like the fact that Ottawa is going through a lot of personnel changes at all the skill positions plus has a turnover-prone QB. Davis will be throwing to some new starting receivers this week too plus their running back is now out. The Tiger-Cats are not without injuries too but they are a much more "settled team" at this point in the season and they get revenge for last season's series sweep at the hands of Ottawa. Keep in mind, the Redblacks enter this game having lost 5 of their last 6 games. This line opened up at a -4 and has dropped to a -2 on the Tiger-Cats. I love to fade line moves like this one given the above. 10* HAMILTON |
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08-16-19 | Edmonton v. Toronto OVER 50.5 | Top | 41-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 7:30 ET - No team in the CFL has allowed fewer points than the Eskimos this season. No team in the CFL has scored fewer points than the Argonauts this season. That said, this looks "easy", right? We all know what happens when something looks "easy" of course. The fact is there is more than meets the eye here at first glance. Toronto is off a bye week which was preceded by the Argos getting their first win of the season and it came in a huge upset as a double digit home dog against Winnipeg. I look for Toronto to use this for momentum here at home and coming off a bye week. That will translate to some success on offense again for the Argonauts but truly their defense can not be trusted. They have allowed an average of 34 points per game on the season. That is why I love the over in this match-up because I don't see the Argos stopping Edmonton in this game. It is a revenge game for the Argonauts after they were shutout in the first meeting earlier this season at Edmonton. Also, the Eskimos have a huge divisional match-up on deck with division-leading Winnipeg next week. That coupled with the fact that Edmonton shut out Toronto earlier this season could lead to a bit of a lackadaisical effort from the Eskimos defense in this one. The Argonauts will take advantage and score plenty here but they can't stop the Edmonton offense. The most recent meeting between these teams stayed under the total but the over was 10-3 in the 13 prior meetings and that long-term trend resumes here. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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08-15-19 | BC +11 v. Winnipeg | Top | 16-32 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #689 Thursday 10* Top Play BC Lions (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - The Lions got beat by double digits at home in their season opener when they hosted the Blue Bombers two months ago. Not only is this a revenge game but it also is a match-up offering great situational edges too. While Winnipeg is off a big divisional win over Calgary and has another huge divisional match-up on deck at Edmonton, BC is off a loss at Hamilton and has the same Tiger-Cats (non-divisional opponent) on deck for next week. That said, I love getting the generous points being offered here. The Blue Bombers benefited last week from a huge game from their special teams. The point is that, from a statistical standpoint, Winnipeg really was not overly impressive last week. On the other hand, the Lions were quite impressive from a statistical standpoint in their tight loss to the Ti-Cats. QB Mike Reilly did throw a couple INTs in addition to his couple TDs but that is what keyed the one-point loss. That said, I like the great value being offered here with the double digit road dog. 10* BC LIONS |
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08-10-19 | BC v. Hamilton OVER 51 | Top | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - Hamilton is fired up off a 5-point loss at Saskatchewan and will be ready to take out their frustration on a weak BC defense. The Lions are coming off a bye week and will be ready to respond after being held to just 18 points in a home loss prior to the week off. Note that the last 5 meetings between these teams have averaged 57.4 points per game and the posted total on this one has dropped down to a 51 as of early Saturday morning. The Tiger-Cats have scored an average of 44 points per game in their last two home games against BC! The Lions have averaged a respectable 24.5 points per game in their 4 road games this season. The over is 5-1 this season when BC is an underdog. The over is 12-5 the past 3 seasons combined when the Tiger-Cats are playing against a team with a losing record. The Lions have allowed 37.3 points per game in their 6 defeats this season and BC has given up at least 33 points in all 6 of their defeats. Considering that as well as the fact that the Lions have scored 23 points or more in all but one of their road games, you can see why this game is offering great value on the high side of the total. 10* OVER the total in Hamilton |
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08-08-19 | Calgary v. Winnipeg -7 | Top | 24-26 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 Thursday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 8:30 ET - This game is for first place in the West Division. Long-term the Stampeders hold a huge edge in this series as they've won 19 of the last 22 meetings. However, this line opened up as high as a -10 on the Blue Bombers with plenty of good reason. Now that the markets, as expected, have moved it down to a -7 on Winnipeg, it is "go time" with this one. The Blue Bombers saw their unbeaten season come to and two weeks ago at Hamilton. Then last week on Thursday they blew a 20-0 lead at Toronto to get upset by a single point as a huge favorite. Can you imagine how fired up Winnipeg will be at home for this game after all this that has transpired the past two weeks? Keep in mind the Blue Bombers are still undefeated at home this season and they catch Calgary off a big home win over Edmonton last week. Not only was that a big divisional win for the Stamps, it also came on Saturday so the Bombers have a nice rest edge in this match-up. Additionally, the Stampeders are still down to their back-up quarterback and I look for an angry Winnipeg team to respond huge at home in this game and play their best game of the season thus far on both sides of the ball. The situational aspects of this game favor the Blue Bombers in a big way and the odds makers had it right with their bigger number on the opener of this game. Look for the home team to win in a blowout by double digits. 10* WINNIPEG |
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08-03-19 | Edmonton v. Calgary | Top | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #695 Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - Long-time followers know I am a contrarian and I like to look for lines that look a little "off" where I am confident the masses are going to be looking one way and so we jump in on the opposite side and look the other way. It is something that has worked very well for me through the years and I expect that to again be the case in this Saturday match-up. Edmonton is AT Calgary and yet the Eskimos are a slight favorite here. Basically the line is right around a pick'em but most are going to look at this game and say, "Oh, I can take the defending CFL champs on their home field at a pick'em" and they'll be all over the Stampeders here. The fact is that the odds makers set the line this way with good reason. For one thing Calgary is still using Nick Arbuckle at QB because of the Bo Levi Mitchell injury. Admittedly, Arbuckle has surprised this season. However, he still has a total of only 2 touchdowns (plus also 2 picks thrown) in his last 3 games. This included games against Ottawa and Toronto too. Those two teams, even after rare wins this week, are a combined 4-10 on the season! Arbuckle is going to face a much tougher test here and I like the fact that Eskimos QB Trevor Harris entered this week's action as the #1 passer in the CFL for passing yards! He is fully capable of another huge game here and you know they've had this game circled in red as this is a heated rivalry and the Eskimos appear to be on the way up this season while the Stamps are regressing as they are suffering a "Grey Cup hangover" this season plus have the injury at QB spot. 10* EDMONTON |
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08-02-19 | Ottawa v. Montreal OVER 52.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Montreal Alouettes vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - The total opened up at a 54.5 but has dropped to 52.5 as of early morning on game day. In typical contrarian fashion I am fading the line move. The Alouettes are off a bye week and that was preceded by a low-scoring win. The Redblacks are off a tight low-scoring loss last week at home against Calgary. This has led to value here with the over because their prior game results are being over-valued here and I am expecting this one to play out much differently than those games. These two teams are ranked 8th and 9th in the 9-team CFL for team defense in terms of yards allowed per game. Also, Montreal has allowed 26 points per game and Ottawa has allowed 30 points per game on the season. Both defenses are likely to struggle here and I like the QB play we've been seeing from both of these squads. That being said, throw the trends out the window here (I am aware the trending favors the under here) and look for this one to get much closer to 60 points than 50 points! 10* OVER the total in Montreal |
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08-01-19 | Hamilton +3 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 19-24 | Loss | -101 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Thursday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Saskatchewan Roughridgers @ 9:30 ET - Hamilton lost starting QB Jeremiah Masoli to a season-ending knee injury during last week's big win over Winnipeg as they handed the Blue Bombers their first loss of the season. The odds makers are aware of this. Dane Evans, a successful QB in college with the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, will start in his place. The odds makers are aware of this. The point I am making is that this line opened up at a pick'em with plenty of good reason but the markets have pushed Saskatchewan to being a 3-point favorite in this spot as if the odds makers don't know what their doing. Yes this is a revenge game for the Roughriders as they lost at Hamilton in their season opener this year. However, Saskatchewan has struggled against quality teams this season. They got blown out by Calgary a few weeks ago. The Riders also lost to an Ottawa team that is now 2-4 on the season. Saskatchewan is 3-3 on the season and 2 of the wins have come against a BC team that is 1-6 on the year and the other win came against a Toronto team that is 0-6 on the season! Until the Roughriders prove they can beat a quality opponent I have no problem fading them. Also, you know the Tiger-Cats are in a "rally the troops" mode after losing Masoli to injury last week. This will be their first full game without him and everyone will bring their "A game" in support of Evans, the new starting QB. You see this in all sports where the first game after an injury there is often a "rally the troops" game and that is what I am expecting here. Love the value with the +3 and betting on a team that is 5-1 this season and going against a team whose only wins have come against bad teams. Keep in mind the Tiger-Cats defense allowing just 19 points per game this season and the Ti-Cats have a rest edge here since they played last week on Friday. Saskatchewan played on Saturday last week and so this is a very short rest spot for them on Thursday. 10* HAMILTON |
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07-27-19 | Saskatchewan -2.5 v. BC | Top | 45-18 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #687 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) @ BC Lions @ 7 ET - I have tremendous respect for the odds makers and this is true even in CFL. Sure this is not a big market place for them but every game in every sport that has a number on it has great thought and research put into it for specialists from that sport. That being said, I have an interesting viewpoint on this game based on what the odds makers did here. Keep in mind last week Saskatchewan was at home against BC and the Roughriders opened up as only a 2-point favorite. Now, knowing that the Riders won last week's game and that the Lions have revenge in this game and that home teams have dominated the series between these teams, how in the world could Saskatchewan have opened up as 3.5-point road favorites here? Exactly! My point is that the whole world (at least the betting world that pays attention to CFL) is likely to be lining up on the home dog revenge-minded Lions here. As for me, I'll side with the sharpest minds in the industry...those on the other side of the counter...the odds makers! Doesn't work all the time of course...nothing does...but this is an angle I like to use a lot. In this specific case, it may seem surprising to see this line on Saskatchewan but don't be fooled. It is has already come down to as low as a -2 because the markets are doing precisely what I would expect them to do given the above. Let's take advantage and lay the short number with the road favorite. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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07-26-19 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton +2.5 | Top | 15-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - Winnipeg is 5-0 on the season and that means the Blue Bombers have the attention of everyone as the only remaining team in the league that is undefeated. However, the very first lines that popped up globally on this game had Hamilton as the 2-point favorite. Now, as of early Friday morning, the Tiger-Cats are a 2.5 point dog. This is a great value opportunity on a home dog. While I certainly respect the 5-0 Blue Bombers, note that Hamilton is a solid 4-1 on the season as well plus they are coming off a bye week. Also, about that 5-0 for Winnipeg...note that 4 of the wins have come against Ottawa (2), BC, and Toronto. Those teams, after Redblacks and Argonauts lost last night, are a combined 3-15 on the season! The only team with a winning record that the Blue Bombers have beaten was Edmonton - currently 4-2 on the season after last night's victory. A win is a win as they say but do note that the Eskimos outgained the Bombers in the aforementioned game and it was at Winnipeg. Also, Edmonton scored SEVEN times in the game but the problem for the Eskimos was that all 7 scores were field goals! Give the Blue Bombers credit for keeping them out of the end zone but the fact is that Edmonton moved he ball quite well in that game. The home team won both games (SU) last season and I look for that trend to continue here but will grab the points as insurance. 10* HAMILTON |
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07-25-19 | Toronto v. Edmonton OVER 51 | Top | 0-26 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 54 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Edmonton Eskimos vs Toronto Argonauts @ 9:30 PM ET - It will still be windy during the day in Edmonton but the breezy conditions will be subsiding as evening comes and I expect only moderate winds for this one Thursday night in Alberta. The line has moved down to as low as 51 as everyone is liking the under after the Eskimos scored only 10 points last week and the Argonauts managed to put just 16 points on the board. Keep in mind this is a non-conference match-up and these types of match-ups, especially with Toronto being winless on the season, don't bring out the best usually in terms of level of defensive play. Also, Edmonton could get caught looking ahead to their big match-up with division (and provincial rival) Calgary that is coming up next week. The Argonauts are allowing 37.6 points per game this season. The over is 3-1 in Toronto's last 4 Thursday games. The Eskimos are a double digit favorite and the over is 18-8 the last 26 times they have been a favorite of 10 or more points. The over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these teams in Alberta. Toronto has averaged 332 passing yards per game their last 3 games and the Eskimos will take advantage of the Argonauts porous defense as well. 10* OVER the total in Edmonton |
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07-25-19 | Calgary v. Ottawa +6 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 1 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 Thursday 8* Ottawa Redblacks (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - This line has been on the rise for the favored Stampeders because everyone is looking at the revenge angle from their Week 1 home loss in Calgary. However, what about the fact that the Stamps are off a big win here and they have division rival Edmonton on deck? Also, what about the fact that Ottawa scored just 1 point in last week's ugly loss and also the fact that this is the one and only time on the schedule that the Redblacks get the chance (on their own home field) to get revenge for last year's Grey Cup loss? The fact is that Ottawa is what I would term a "live dog" in a match-up like this and I am grabbing the generous points. Note that Calgary is 0-3 ATS in non-conference games this season and also 0-3 ATS in games in which they have been a favorite. Certainly with this line hanging around a full TD the line definitely is not insignificant. This is particularly true when you consider that the Redblacks are 16-7 ATS as an underdog including a superb 4-1 ATS the last 5 times they have been a home underdog. 8* OTTAWA |
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07-20-19 | BC v. Saskatchewan OVER 50 | Top | 25-38 | Win | 100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #695 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total Saskatchewan Roughriders vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - Contrarian play, which as long-time followers know, is quite typical for me. The Lions scored only 6 points in last week's loss and everyone is deeming QB Mike Reilly to BC for this season to be a bust. But, keep in mind, we have a long way to go this season and I fully expect the Lions offensive production to get back on track this week. As for the Roughriders, they are off their bye week and that was preceded by Saskatchewan scoring just 10 points in a home loss to Calgary. Based on the ugly scoring results for each of these teams last week, both teams (including their QBs) have plenty to prove here. Keep in mind the Riders now face a weaker defense than they did in their most recent game (that was against the Stampeders). Under center for the Roughriders is Cody Fajardo for the injured Zach Collaros. The most recent game notwithstanding, Fajardo has played quite well and I also know full well what Reilly is capable of and I am expecting both teams (and their QBs) to respond huge this week. The Riders had averaged 30 points per game in their first 3 games this season and the Lions had averaged 24 points per game in their first 4 games this season. That equates to 54 points but, because of the most recent game for each team, we've got a total hovering around 50 here. Value is big here and note that the over is 3-1 in BC's divisional games this season. The over is 7-3 the last 10 times the Roughriders have been a home favorite of 7 or less points. 10* OVER the total in Saskatchewan |
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07-19-19 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg OVER 51.5 | Top | 1-31 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 8:30 ET - I like the overs in situations that have all the elements we are seeing in this match-up. Winnipeg already beat Ottawa, a non-conference foe, earlier this season. The Blue Bombers have Hamilton on deck. Even though the Tiger-Cats are another non-conference foe, if the Winnipeg defense was going to get geared up about facing someone it would be the streaking Ti-Cats next week. Hamilton has the best record in the East and the undefeated Bombers, of course, have the best record in the West. That sets up a showdown for next week and I could see the Blue Bombers defense being a little lax in this one as a result. As for the Redblacks defense, they are likely to be shredded by a powerhouse Winnipeg offense further strengthened by QB Matt Nichols looking sharp last week after his Week 4 injury. Prior the previous meeting between these teams this season staying under the total, 4 of the last 5 had gone over the total. Also, the over is 6-3 in the last 9 meetings between these teams at Winnipeg. Ottawa's game hosting the Blue Bombers earlier this season was the only game this season that has been an under for the Redblacks. Their QB Dominique Davis has had trouble with throwing too many picks but he is a dual threat and will run more than he did in the first meeting between these teams. He has 5 rushing TDs this season and also had a 3-TD passing game earlier this season. This total has gone from 55 to 51.5 and is therefore offering even more value here with pleasant weather also expected here. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
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07-18-19 | Toronto +12.5 v. Calgary | Top | 16-26 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Thursday 10* Toronto Argonauts (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 9 ET - The Stampeders have only 1 home loss this season and it came against the Redblacks. Ottawa and Calgary also have met twice for the Grey Cup title in the past three season. Keep in mind the Stampeders loss to the Redblacks was in their home opener! That said, who do the Stamps have on deck for next week? Ottawa! Who are the playing this week? The only winless team in the CFL, Toronto. The Argonauts are 0-4 on the season and I could see the Stampeders looking right past them here. I still expect Calgary to win but I expect the victory margin to be single digits and I love the value with the road dog here. The Stampeders starting quarterback, Bo Levi Mitchell, is out and that means Nick Arbuckle continues to get time under center. He has struggled to get Calgary deep into the red zone in games. As for the Argos, they have Mcleod Bethel-Thompson under center and he threw for nearly 400 yards and 3 TDs last week. I feel we've got great underdog line value here as the Argonauts running attack was also better than Calgary's in last week's action. 10* TORONTO |
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07-13-19 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 51 | Top | 36-19 | Win | 100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #685 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Montreal Alouettes @ 4 ET - Montreal had one bad game offensively but they've averaged 30.5 points per game in their other two games. Ottawa had a flat performance last week following a bye week but the Redblacks had averaged 38 points per game in their two prior games this season. The last 5 meetings between these teams have all resulted in unders and that has helped move this total move down from a 52.5 to a 51 as of early game day morning and I love the extra value now being offered here. Montreal has red hot running back William Stanback whom ran for over 200 yards last week. That will result in the Ottawa defense having to focus some attention on him which will open up the passing game for Alouettes QB Vernon Adams. For the Redblacks, it is Dominique Davis at QB and he has plenty of playmaking ability but must cut down on his mistakes as he has thrown too many interceptions. Davis was stronger in the first two games and I look for him to bounce back after he and the Redblacks ran into a buzzsaw when they faced the Blue Bombers last week. Keep in mind, Winnipeg won again last night and the 4-0 Bombers are the only undefeated team in the league and they are allowing just 19.8 points per game. Now Ottawa can take advantage of a Montreal team that is allowing 34 points per game. A lot of playmakers on the field in this one and I expect the early market move in this one to prove false as this game flies over the total. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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07-12-19 | Toronto v. Winnipeg OVER 51 | Top | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Toronto Argonauts @ 8:30 ET - With the Argonauts and Blue Bombers both entering this match-up off back to back unders, most will be looking that way in this game. However, the over is a perfect 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. Also, 4 of the last 5 meetings in Winnipeg have gone over the total. The Blue Bombers have averaged 40 points per game in their last 3 games hosting the Argos. Toronto enters this game doing a good job through the air on offense except they don't have the points to show for it. That is leading to some value here as they could get overlooked by the Blue Bombers as Winnipeg is off a big road win last week and now facing a winless non-conference opponents. These are the types of games where defenses get overconfident and overlook an opponent and it would not surprise to see Winnipeg's D expecting this to be a cakewalk at home and then they end up being surprised. One thing is for sure though, Blue Bombers offense should enjoy a huge game here as the Argonauts are allowing 378 passing yards per game this season! Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols left last game with a neck injury but is probable for this game. Toronto QB James Franklin is current out but McLeod Bethel-Thompson threw for over 300 yards in last week's game. The Argonauts points will finally be commensurate with their yardage output in this game but their leaky D won't be able to stop the potent Blue Bomber attack. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
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07-11-19 | Edmonton v. BC +4.5 | Top | 33-6 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 BC Lions (+) vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 10 PM ET - Everyone is down on the Lions right now and, that is why, once the first line was posted at Eskimos -2.5, everyone jumped all over Edmonton and the line shot up to as high as a -5. I love the value with the home dog BC in this one. Yes, the Lions finally got their first win last week and it was an unimpressive 1-point win over the Argonauts. However, getting that first win (no matter how ugly) was key. Keep in mind they faced a desperate Argos team and it was on the road and a win is a win as they say! That being the case, BC also might have been peeking ahead at this revenge game with the Eskimos. Keep in mind the Lions got drilled at Edmonton already this season and BC quarterback Mike Reilly and the Lions would like revenge against his former team (and a division rival). I like the fact that BC has revenge here, they are at home, and they got their running game going big-time last week with John White having a huge game. The Lions are 10-4 (both SU and ATS) the last 14 times they've hosted Edmonton. Overall, BC is 7-3 SU in its last 10 home games and I am happy to get them here at home plus get some points! As for Edmonton, they are on a 3-6 ATS run their last 9 games. Also, the Eskimos are 1-4 ATS (and 0-5 SU!) in their last 5 road games! The Lions haven't been at home since their season opener 4 weeks ago and they will make the most of this opportunity. Even though Edmonton is off a bye week, their history of struggles on the road can not be ignored and the Lions have momentum after last week's win. 10* BC Lions |
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07-06-19 | BC v. Toronto OVER 54.5 | Top | 18-17 | Loss | -109 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #693 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Toronto Argonauts vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - A match-up of two winless teams and the oddsmakers set this total in the upper 50s for a reason. You don't think the oddsmakers know that the Argonauts have averaged just 10.5 points per game in their first two games? Of course they do. But yet the betting markets are jumping all over the under in this game even though the Lions have allowed at least 33 points in all 3 of their games. Yes, BC is 0-3 on the season but they do have Mike Reilly at QB and they've been putting up some big points. The Lions should have no trouble with the Argos defense (especially with Toronto on a short week as they just played Monday) but the issue for BC is a leaky defense. Yes, the Argos have been ugly so far on offense but they will be better in what is just their 2nd home game this season. Toronto got shell-shocked in their first home game as they were the only team that didn't play in week one (bye week) and then got blasted in week two. Then in week three the Argos ran into a buzzsaw as they faced an angry Roughriders team that was 0-2 and playing their home opener. That led to an ugly loss for Toronto. I am saying there is a reason the Argos have scored so few points this season and I am saying the oddsmakers had it right with a bigger number on this game and we should see this one get into the 60s for totals points scored as the over improves to 4-0 in Lions games this season. BC went 5-2 to the over in July games the past two seasons. Toronto is 12-7 to the over when playing with 6 or less days of rest. The Argonauts are 8-4 to the over when they are a home underdog. 10* OVER the total in Toronto |
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07-05-19 | Winnipeg +4 v. Ottawa | Top | 29-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #691 Friday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7:30 ET - There is still an East-West dichotomy in the CFL in my opinion and it favors the West. This match-up is a good example of that as the Blue Bombers have gone 6-2 against East Division foes each of the last two seasons. As for the Redblacks, they managed a 5-5 mark against West Division foes last season and an ugly 3-6-1 mark against the West the prior season. As you can see that means Winnipeg is 12-4 the past two seasons in non-divisional action while Ottawa is 8-11-1 in non-divisional action. That said, and considering the Redblacks have some injury issues on defense here, I am happy to grab the generous points being offered to the Blue Bombers. Even though Ottawa is off a bye week, they are actually 1-5 ATS the past two seasons when off a bye. Also, the Redblacks are 5-11 ATS as a home favorite. Ottawa's QB has put up some solid numbers in the first two weeks but has also thrown too many interceptions. Winnipeg has a solid Matt Nichols at QB. Also, the Blue Bombers are 14-7 ATS their last 21 road games. With Montreal upsetting Hamilton last night, these two teams tonight are the last of the unbeatens. Even though Ottawa is 2-0 the Redblacks two wins have both been extremely tight (3 and 4 points) which, in addition to the above, is another reason I love having the underdog Blue Bombers in this match-up. 10* WINNIPEG |
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07-04-19 | Hamilton v. Montreal +12.5 | Top | 29-36 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #690 Thursday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:30 ET - The Alouettes are 0-2 this season and got blasted last week at Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats are 3-0 this season and have delivered back to back blowout wins the past two weeks. It looks easy to lay the points with the road team here, right? Of course it does and in typical contrarian fashion I am on the other side of this one. I am grabbing the ugly home dog here with Montreal. The fact is that, after last week's blowout win in this same match-up at Hamilton, the Tiger-Cats could very easily get caught looking right past the Alouettes. That's because the Ti-Cats have a huge game at home next week against Calgary. Sure that is a non-divisional match-up but if you don't think Hamilton is looking forward to hosting the defending Grey Cup Champion Stampeders you are mistaken. Montreal managed to hold the Tiger-Cats scoreless in the first quarter of last week's game but then the wheels came off. Keep in mind, this is Montreal's home opener. They are the last team in the CFL to get a home game this season and I expect them to make the most of it. Their defense will perform better for a longer period of time in this game as the home field makes a big difference. We're also getting line value here as this line is the same as it was last week even though the venue has shifted north. Of course the reason it didn't adjust by 6 or 7 points like it normally would is because of last week's final score in this match-up but the point is that this is giving us extra value here with the home dog. Also, as they showed in Week 1 at Edmonton, the Als have the ability to score late points and make things interesting which also means the back-door cover opportunity is there should we need it in this one. I actually think we won't though as I expect the Alouettes to keep this one tight all the way. Hamilton has lost 18 of their last 23 visits to Montreal SU. The Als are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games and also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. They'll be the type of scrappy home dog I love to see in this Thursday match-up. 10* MONTREAL |
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07-01-19 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan -10 | Top | 7-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach MLB Rotation #688 Monday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - This line was up near 14 when lines first came out. It is now down to 10 as of early game day morning and I love the value with the home favorite here. Yes, the Roughriders are 0-2 to start the season but this is their first home game of the new season. Also, the teams that Saskatchewan lost to are now a combined 5-0 on the season and the Riders lost each game by just a single possession. Toronto, on the other hand, has played only one game but they got absolutely annihilated by a 50 point margin and that was on their home field no less. Keep in mind, the Argonauts went 0-9 SU in road games last season! Even in their miracle season in 2017 that saw them come together at just the right time for a Grey Cup title, the Argos went 3-6 in regular season road games. Simply put, Toronto is not a good road team and Saskatchewan is arguably the toughest place to play in the league. That said, I expect this one to get ugly quick and, with how angry the Roughriders are, the home team is not going to take their foot off the gas in this one. That is bad news for a Toronto defense that allowed a TD on SEVEN straight possessions during last week's embarrassing loss. The Argonauts are on a 4-9 ATS run as a road underdog. The Roughriders went a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS the past two seasons when they entered a game off consecutive SU losses. This one has home blowout written all over it as Cody Fajardo played very well last week in place of injured starting QB Zach Collaros and Fajardo and Company will slice and dice this Argos defense while Toronto's futility on offense allows the Riders defense to shine in this one at home. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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06-29-19 | BC v. Calgary UNDER 53.5 | Top | 32-36 | Loss | -106 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #686 Saturday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Calgary Stampeders vs BC Lions @ 7 ET - The over cashed in plenty in Weeks 1 and 2 of this CFL season but we've now seen 2 straight unders here in Week 3 and I am forecasting another one on Saturday evening in Alberta. The last 5 meetings between these teams have all resulted in an under. Additionally, 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams in Calgary have resulted in an under. Yes the over is 2-0 in Lions games this season and the Stamps only game thus far also went over the total. However, I see both teams emphasizing the ground game more in this one and also I expect a huge defensive effort from both teams. The Stampeders let one get away in their week one loss. The defense feels responsibility for that as they were up by 12 after just 1 quarter and couldn't get the job done. Additionally, Calgary got outscored 11-0 in the 4th quarter of that game. Look for the defending champs, having taken advantage of the bye week, to come up with a much stronger effort defensively in this game plus to do a lit bit more "grinding of the clock" by utilizing the ground game more in this one. BC is off to a tough start this season as prized offseason acquisition QB Mike Reilly has struggled. The Lions know they need to take some pressure off him by utilizing their ground game a little bit more. BC also knows that the Stamps D proved susceptible to the run in their week one loss. That said, we're going to see some ground game from both teams in this one and that will help it stay under the rather inflated number on this one. The last 5 meetings between these teams have averaged a total of only 41 points. Prior to the Stampeders surprising week one result, the O/U was on a 4-16 run in Stamps games in the month of June. As for the Lions, prior to last week's over, the O/U was on a 4-9 run when BC was off a loss to a divisional foe in the prior week. Look for those trends to resume here as the 6th straight under occurs between these teams on Saturday. 10* UNDER the total in Calgary |
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06-28-19 | Montreal v. Hamilton -12.5 | Top | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #684 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - The Als managed to rally for the cover in their week one ATS win in a 7 point loss at Edmonton. The Eskimos did have a big lead in that game but then relaxed some and Montreal got back into it. The Alouettes will face a much tougher challenge here because the Tiger-Cats regular season home finale (and fan appreciation day) was ruined by a loss to the Als in early November last year. How did Montreal do it? The situation was helped by the fact that it was a meaningless game for the Ti-Cats as their post-season position for the following week was already set. All the same, Hamilton has been thinking plenty about that loss as they have been preparing for this rematch opportunity. The odds makers hung a 14 on this game but bettors have knocked it down a bit. That has led to value on the hungry and undefeated home favorite here. Hamilton is 2-0 and rolling early this season while the Alouettes organization entered this campaign in full disarray with a late head coaching change (right before the season) among other distractions. Keep in mind, prior to that loss to the Als in the most recent meeting, the 3 prior games had seen Hamilton win all 3 by an average margin of victory of 33 points! Another bloodbath likely here! Montreal is 3-16 SU in their last 19 road games. As for the Tiger-Cats covering the big number here, note that they are 6-2 ATS the last 8 times they have been a home favorite in a range of 10.5 to 14 points. 10* HAMILTON |
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06-27-19 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg UNDER 58.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 17 h 40 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #682 Thursday 10* Top Play UNDER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 8:30 ET - With all 3 games flying over the total last week as well as the fact that 5 of the last 6 meetings between these teams in Winnipeg have gone over the total, we're seeing a lot of upward movement on this total. It is up to a 58.5 and I feel we're getting great line value here with the under as a result. This is a divisional battle. Edmonton has allowed 25 points or less in each of their first two games this season. Winnipeg was off last week so their D is well rested and they allowed only 23 points in their Week 1 victory over BC. So with a total in the upper 50s and the fact both these teams have proven the ability to run the ball and both teams having proven they can play some defense too, this one has the makings of a solid under. Note that 4 of Edmonton's last 5 games as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points have resulted in an under. Also, the under has cashed in an incredible 27 of 35 times when the Eskimos are on the road in a game with a posted total of 56 points or more. This, of course, is the Blue Bombers first time this season coming off a bye week. That is a situation that saw the under go a PERFECT 4-0 the past two seasons. Take advantage of the big number here and look for this one fall well short of it. 10* UNDER the total in Winnipeg |
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06-22-19 | Hamilton v. Toronto +4 | Top | 64-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #694 Saturday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 4 ET - The Argonauts have a new head coach but certainly he is not new to Toronto. In fact it is Corey Chamblin and he was previously the Argos defensive coordinator. This included their run to the Grey Cup Title in 2017. That said, with Toronto having a bye in week one, they have had plenty of time to prepare for their season opener at home this week against Hamilton. I like the fact that the Tiger-Cats have seen the line double here. Hamilton opened up as a 2 point choice but is now a 4-point favorite as of early game day morning. This means extra value for the home dog Argonauts. That said, you also know that there is plenty of motivation for Chamblin's defense to put the stops on a Tiger-Cats offense led by QB Jeremiah Masoli. Hamilton enters this season with expectations to be a top team in the east and the Argonauts are highly motivated to make a statement about that right here. Additionally, I like the fact that the Ti-Cats were outgained by over 100 yards on the ground last week. Hamilton won despite a huge yardage deficit on the ground and, keep in mind, Masoli didn't exactly light it up either. He was held to 169 yards through the air and that was against a Saskatchewan team that then allowed 44 points at Ottawa this week. In other words, don't be surprised when the Argonauts give the Ti-Cats a helluva test here and either win the game outright or lose by 3 points or less. Hamilton is 3-11 SU and ATS in Saturday games the past two seasons. The fact that the Tiger-Cats won all three meetings last season is even more reason to go with the hungry, revenge-minded home underdog here. 10* TORONTO |
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06-21-19 | BC v. Edmonton -3 | Top | 23-39 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #692 Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) vs BC Lions @ 9 ET - The home team won and covered all 3 meetings last season. This match-up opened up at a -4.5 and has dropped to a -3 and I love the value we're being offered here with Edmonton. The Lions QB is former Eskimo Mike Reilly. Certainly he would love to get a win over his former team but don't forget that the Eskimos defense also has some added motivation here. Also, even though Reilly had some strong stats in in his first start for BC last week, he did also throw two picks. Note that Reilly's replacement in Edmonton, Trevor Harris, had a massive game for the Eskimos last week. Also, Edmonton's ground attack was solid with CJ Gable running for over 150 yards on 20 carries. The Eskimos have the home field edge and the running game edge as the Lions rushing attack last week was non-existent. That said, Harris was the better QB than Reilly last week in each teams respective season opener. Even if Reilly outplays Harris in this match-up, the Eskimos have the other key edges that should still lead to a home victory. Considering that as well as the value with this line down to a -3 and the small home fave is the play in this one. 10* EDMONTON |
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06-20-19 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa OVER 43.5 | Top | 41-44 | Win | 100 | 14 h 4 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #689 Thursday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7:30 ET - Line moves are funny sometimes, even in the CFL. The odds makers, of course, knew about the Zach Collaros (Riders QB) injury and yet they set the total on this game at 49.5 with that in mind. The betting markets are indicating that was a horrible number and the total has now plummeted a full 6 points down to 43.5 as of early game day morning. Long-time followers know I love grabbing the value in contrarian situations like this as, let us not kid ourselves, the fact is the odds makers are quite sharp! The Redblacks are certainly going to be geared up for their home (and season) opener! At the same time, the Roughriders are ready to bounce back (even without Collaros) after losing a tight one 23-17 last week. Keep in mind he got hurt early on in that game so the Riders already have had some time playing without him. That will help them this week but they're going to struggle to stop Ottawa's offense in this one. Note that the over went 4-1 in Redblacks June games the past two seasons. Also, the over is 3-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams. This one is all about the line value but certainly includes match-up value and situational value. Big game for the Redblacks for the home fans but look for the Riders to match them score for score. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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06-15-19 | Ottawa +8.5 v. Calgary | Top | 32-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #685 Saturday 10* Top Play Ottawa Redblacks (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - A rematch of last year's Grey Cup and I like having the big points on my side here considering all the off-season changes for both of these teams. Yes, Calgary has won 7 straight home openers and also defeated Ottawa in all 3 meetings last season. However, there were wholesale changes for both teams coming into this season. That said, I like the fact that Redblacks defense has more continuity than the Stampeders defense heading into this season. Ottawa's defense remains mostly intact from last season in terms of personnel and they are responding well to defensive coordinator Noel Thorpe heading into the season. The Stamps also have a new defensive coordinator this season but their situation is much more complicated. Former Calgary defensive coordinator DeVone Claybrooks is now the head coach of the BC Lions. New Stamps DC Brett Monson has a tall task in front of him as the Stampeders lost more than half their starters from the unit that won the Grey Cup last season. As an underdog, Ottawa has gone a fantastic 15-6 ATS the past two seasons. The Redblacks are also a fantastic 11-2 ATS in June games. Ottawa is 13-5 ATS in road games the past two seasons and Calgary is an ugly 1-4 ATS the past two seasons in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points. The turnover ratio was 12 to 4 last season in favor of the Stamps which played a key role in the Redblacks going 0-3 ATS in their 3 meetings. That poor ATS record is also part of the reason this line has jumped from 6.5 to 8.5 on Calgary. In typical contrarian fashion, I am on the other side of the line move and grabbing the extra value per all the reasons noted above. 10* OTTAWA |
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06-14-19 | Montreal v. Edmonton OVER 51 | Top | 25-32 | Win | 100 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #683 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Edmonton Eskimos vs Montreal Alouettes @ 9 ET - Major changes for both teams in terms of personnel heading into this season. Additionally, a sudden coaching change for the Alouettes occurred only about a week before the season got underway as Montreal is now being coached by their offensive coordinator and the Mike Sherman stint - a short one - is finished in Quebec. With all the changes I am expecting some breakdowns in this game. Both teams could be mistake-prone which can lead to some big plays. The over is 3-1 in the last 4 home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points for the Eskimos. Also, the last 3 meetings between these teams all resulted in an over. Not only did each game go over, each one totaled at least 64 points and flew over the total by a double digit margin. Both teams have made changes at QB heading into this season and Edmonton is known for their offensive production while the Als have much to prove and now have their offensive coordinator calling the shots as the head coach. The result should be plenty of points in this one. 10* OVER the total in Edmonton |
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06-13-19 | Saskatchewan +3 v. Hamilton | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Football Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Rotation #681 Thursday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:00 ET - The Riders have an experience edge here as the average age on their roster ranks them first in the league. The Cats are at the other end of the spectrum as they have 15 first-year players on their roster and that is the most of any team in the league. Though one would be correct in arguing that Hamilton's QB Jeremiah Masoli rates the edge over Saskatchewan's Zach Collaros, the pivot isn't the only position of importance on the field to say the least! The Roughriders were a top rushing team last season and that helps keep the defense off balance and that will open up the aerial attack for Collaros. Also, the Riders have won 5 straight games over Hamilton. Long-term, the Roughriders have won 23 of their last 30 games against the Ti-Cats. Hamilton is 2-9 SU and ATS the past two seasons in games in which the Tiger-Cats line ranged from a +3 to a -3. I am happy to grab the points in this one but I do expect the Riders to make it 6 in a row over the Ti-Cats! Both teams have new head coaches for this season and Hamilton also has changed both their offensive and defensive coordinators too. This has led to value with the road dog in this season opener. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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11-25-18 | Ottawa v. Calgary OVER 53 | Top | 16-27 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #667 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Grey Cup: Calgary Stampeders vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 6 ET in Edmonton, Alberta - The CFL Grey Cup Final is being played in Edmonton and the weather can certainly be frigid and ugly in late November. However, the offenses caught a break here as skies will be clear, temperatures will be just below freezing, and winds will light. This has led to line value with the over in this one in my opinion. The Redblacks have an offense firing on all cylinders after crushing Hamilton last week. The Stampeders of course were the top team in the league this season and their offense is very dynamic and averaged 34.3 points per game in their last 6 games against Ottawa. This is a rematch of the 2016 Grey Cup which the Redblacks won 39-33. Of course the Stamps are seeking revenge here and are 3-0-1 in the 4 regular season meetings with Ottawa since that 2016 Final. They are expected to get revenge here but I feel this game is going to be a shootout (similar to the 2016 Grey Cup) that could go either way and I like the over. The over is 7-2 in the last 9 meetings between these teams and that includes 5-1 when the Redblacks face the Stampeders away from Ottawa. 10* OVER the total in Grey Cup |
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10-27-18 | BC +4.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 16-35 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
CFL Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #663 Saturday 10* Top Play BC Lions (+) @ Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7 ET - Saskatchewan is known for being a tough place to play for the visitors. However, there is also a lot of pressure on the Roughriders here. Both BC and the Riders are in the playoffs already. However, while the Lions are able to play loose here because they've clinched a spot and are unlikely to change their playoff positioning in any greatly significant manner, the situation for Saskatchewan is much different. This is the Roughriders final game of the season and, with a win, they have a shot at the West Division title! If Calgary would lose at BC (ironically) next week than the Riders would win the division. Again, that is IF the Roughriders can win tonight in what is their final game of the season. That said, the Lions are playing their best football of the season and I love the value we're getting with them here as a sizable dog. BC has won 6 of its last 7 games SU and is also on a 5-2 ATS run. The Riders, conversely, enter this game on a 2-4 ATS run. Also, the Lions are 7-2 SU (and ATS) in their last 9 games with the Roughriders. In meetings at Saskatchewan, the Lions are 5-1 ATS the last 6. This should be a close battle all the way through and the loose and more relaxed team truly makes for a dangerous dog. All the pressure on Saskatchewan here, give me the confident road dog that also has a rest edge of an additional day. The Lions are 4-0 ATS in games against teams with a winning record and the Riders are 2-6 ATS their last 8 as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* BC LIONS |
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10-19-18 | Edmonton v. BC OVER 52 | Top | 32-42 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #653 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in BC Lions vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 10 PM ET - This is a value spot because Edmonton continues to get involved in low-scoring games (miraculously) even though their defense has been sub-par and even though QB Mike Reilly is leading the CFL in passing yards. The Eskimos, based on their stats, should be scoring much more than they have been and also should be giving up a lot more points than they have been. Of course this combination has led to excellent line value here in a game that should fly over the total. The BC ground game has boosted by the addition of RB Tyrell Sutton while the passing game received a jolt with the return of Travis Lulay at QB. The over is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings between these teams and this should end up being a traditional shootout between these West Division foes in a game that is key in the playoff race. Truly neither team can rely on their defense so it is all about the O in this one! The over is 6-1 in Edmonton's road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points. The over is 8-4 when the Lions enter a game on a SU winning streak of 2 or more games. 10* OVER the total in BC |
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10-13-18 | Saskatchewan v. Winnipeg -3.5 | Top | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 5 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #664 Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 2 ET - The Blue Bombers have lost both match-ups with the Riders this season and that is despite holding the yardage edge in each game! In other words it is payback time Saturday in Winnipeg and the situation is perfect. The Bombers are looking up in the standings at the Roughriders and are highly motivated as they still need to secure a post-season spot. Winnipeg also has a big rest edge here as they're OT win at Ottawa was on Friday last week while Saskatchewan is coming off of a hard-fought home win versus Edmonton that was played on Monday! The Roughriders are on an 8-15 ATS run in Saturday games and are on short rest here too. The Blue Bombers are 12-6 ATS in Saturday games, 16-8 ATS when playing with revenge, and 14-6 ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Combined edges of 57-28 (67%) in favor of the home favorite here. Lay it! 10* WINNIPEG |
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10-08-18 | Edmonton v. Saskatchewan OVER 52.5 | Top | 12-19 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #657 Monday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Sasktachewan Roughriders vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 4 ET - Cold weather in Saskatchewan this afternoon but not much, if any, precipitation expected and the winds won't be bad either. That said, both offenses can be fully functional. The Eskimos are off a bad effort on the scoreboard last week and I expect them to make up for that here but the Edmonton defense won't be able to stop the Roughriders offense. Last week Edmonton piled up a ton of yardage but was done in by 5 turnovers. It was absolutely a phony final in terms of the lack of points the Eskimos offense ended up with considering how they moved the all up and down the field. As for the defense, Edmonton has allowed an average of 33.3 points per game their last 3 games as they continue to have issues on that side of the ball. The Roughriders are off a 34-29 win last week and Sasktachewan is averaging 31 points per game the last 7 weeks! When they're hot the point totals tend to keep climbing and the over is a perfect 4-0 this season when the Riders are on a winning streak of 2 or more games. As for the Eskimos, they are 4-1 to the over when playing on a Monday and 4-1 to the over when playing with 8 days of rest between games. Edmonton also is a perfect 2-0 to the over this season when off a loss in divisional action. 10* OVER the total in Saskatchewan |
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09-29-18 | Winnipeg v. Edmonton OVER 56 | Top | 30-3 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
Total of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Game #675 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Edmonton Eskimos vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - As you would expect for late September in Edmonton, the weather will be cold tonight. However, no precipitation is expected and the winds are not expected to be significant either. That said, look for these two offenses (two of the tops in the CFL as they are only behind league-best Calgary) to have huge games. The Eskimos defense has struggled badly of late and the Blue Bombers can (and will) put up points in a hurry. We're getting line value here because Edmonton put up only 15 points last week. That was a "fluke" performance as they actually gained plenty of yardage but were done in by 2 fumbles, 1 interception, and twice they turned the ball over on downs. Those same mistakes, from a highly talented Eskimos offense, are unlikely to recur here at home! The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. The average point total in those 4 overs was 65 points. That said, even though 56 is a sizable total, you can see why I still expect them to top this by 10 or more points. The over is 7-3 when the Eskimos are a home favorite in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. The over is 4-0 this season in Winnipeg's games against teams with a winning record. The over is also a long-term 20-8 in Blue Bombers divisional games. This one has shootout written all over it. 10* OVER the total in Edmonton |
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09-22-18 | Edmonton v. Ottawa OVER 54 | Top | 15-28 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #653 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 4 ET - Beautiful weather in Ottawa Saturday afternoon. The Eskimos are off of their bye week but their prior game totaled 90 points. I do not trust Edmonton's defense but they certainly can put up plenty of points as they are averaging nearly 30 points per game. Look for the Redblacks to match them score for score in this one and that sends it flying over the total. Ottawa has a bye on deck so they're certainly going to go all out here. Also, this is the Redblacks only home game in the month of September and they scored just 11 points in their most recent game as a host. In other words they've been waiting for this one and ready to make up for that poor effort in their most recent game in front of home fans. The over is 4-0 in Edmonton's last 4 games in which they are a road favorite of 3 or less points. Look for the over to improve to 8-4 the last 12 times that the Redblacks have faced a team with a winning record in the 2nd half of a season. Big game here between two teams with winning records and it will be the offenses that "prevail" in this one. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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09-21-18 | Montreal +10.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -103 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #651 Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - Last week's final score would indicate that Montreal got blown out but that was a fluke final score fueled by late defensive touchdowns for Hamilton. That sets this one up well for some additional value on the Alouettes. Even though the Blue Bombers are off of a bye week they can't help but be looking ahead to a big showdown with Edmonton next week as that is a divisional foe. Winnipeg also might be a victim of over-confidence here and look right past the Als as the Bombers have defeated Montreal 4 straight times. I love the value with the road dog in this one as it has been a road-dominated series ATS and we're able to get double digits here. The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings which includes the Alouettes losing their last last visit to Winnipeg by just a single point! The visit before that Montreal won by 8 points as an underdog. We're getting great line value here as the Blue Bombers have allowed an average of 36.5 points per game in going 0-4 SU in their last 4 games! The Alouettes are 4-0 ATS as a road dog of 10.5 to 14 points. The Als are also 4-0 ATS in road games with a posted total of 52 points or more. Winnipeg is 0-4 ATS the past 4 weeks. That means we have a combined 12-0 / 100% perfect ATS mark in support of Montreal in this one. Look for Alouettes QB Johnny Manziel to be much better in his return as the starting QB here. 10* MONTREAL |
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09-15-18 | Calgary v. Hamilton OVER 50.5 | Top | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #661 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Calgary Stampeders @ 4 ET - The Stamps are off of a loss last week and come into this game angry as a result. I do expect them to put up big points but, in my opinion, their defense can't be trusted right now. They've given up an average of 33.5 points in their last 4 games. Also, even though they held the Ti-Cats to just 14 points in their meeting earlier this season that was a bit of a "fluke" on the scoreboard. Hamilton was done in by penalties and turnovers in that game. Certainly the Tiger-Cats should have scored much more than 14 points considering they piled up 333 passing yards in that game. The Stampeders have averaged scoring 36.4 points per game in their last 5 meetings with Hamilton. The Tiger-Cats have averaged scoring 35.2 points per game in their last 5 games overall. This is a meeting of two offenses that have been surging and the weather is ideal for an over Saturday afternoon in Hamilton. Additionally, the total has dropped from its opener so we are getting excellent line value here. In road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points, Calgary is 4-0 to the over. In home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points, the Tiger-Cats are 5-2 to the over. Combined 9-2 (82%) trend I am happy to test in this one with a big play. 10* OVER the total in Hamilton |
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09-14-18 | BC v. Montreal +3.5 | 32-14 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 39 m | Show | |
Friday Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Game #660 Friday 8* Montreal Alouettes (+) vs BC Lions @ 7:30 ET - BC has certainly had the upper hand in this series with 5 straight wins in this series and a 5-0 ATS run. However, the Lions have yet to prove they can win on the road this season. They've gone 0-5 away from home and they now take on a revenge-minded Montreal team that is coming off of a bye week. The Alouettes have a definite rest edge as well as home field edge. I also like the fact that the Als are off of back to back SU wins and they are on a 4-0 ATS run. While Montreal is settled at the QB spot finally with Antonio Pipkin playing well, the Lions have a concern with Travis Lulay currently dealing with concussion issues. The home team is 9-1 this season in BC games and I look for that trend to continue. I will, however, gladly grab the points with the Alouettes as some added insurance here. 8* MONTREAL |
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09-08-18 | Saskatchewan +4.5 v. Winnipeg | 32-27 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Game #655 Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - These teams were in a fierce battle last week in Saskatchewan and the Riders prevailed. As a result now the masses will jump to back to Winnipeg this week in an opportunity for revenge. Guys, it is never that simple. Doesn't mean that "system" won't work this week but the fact it is that the "revenge angle" tends to be over-used in in all sports when it comes to sports wagering. The CFL is no different. The Roughriders are a hot team right now and they certainly won the special teams battle last week versus the Bombers and, keep in mind, special teams should not be overlooked when you're doing your handicapping. Saskatchewan has covered 4 of the last 6 meetings between these teams and the Riders certainly had the more impressive aerial attack last week. Yes, Winnipeg ran the ball well last week but it is still the aerial attack that wins more games in the 3-down league known as CFL! The Riders are the hotter team right now and they are 6-1 SU and ATS the last 7 times they've been off of a win over a division rival. Winnipeg still has not defeated a team with a winning record this season as they are 0-3 SU and ATS in games when they've met a winning team this season. The fact that we're getting a handful of points here is simply an added bonus and I will take it as we fade market perception (revenge) of those bettors whom are following CFL. Give me the road dog here as they have a non-divisional game on deck and so they'll certainly leave it all on the field Saturday afternoon. 8* SASKATCHEWAN |
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09-03-18 | Toronto +9 v. Hamilton | Top | 28-42 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #647 Monday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 6:30 ET - Toronto lost at Montreal last week. As a result, they have no chance at Hamilton this week. Of course I jest but you get my point! We've seen a major market move toward the Tiger-Cats here and, simply put, there has been an over-reaction to last week's results. Keep in mind, the Alouettes team that beat the Argonauts last week certainly has been playing much better in recent weeks. Also, does Hamilton really merit being this large of a favorite in this divisional match-up? Keep in mind, the Ti-Cats not only are on a 1-4-1 ATS run, they're only 2-4 SU in their last 6 games. From my point of view, Hamilton will be doing good just to win this game let alone cover a spread that has now crept up to 9 as of game day morning. This is why I waited to release this pick until game day because I felt we'd get extra value based on market perception. Sure enough, ladies and gentlemen, here it is! Grab the big points with Toronto! The Argos have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these teams and the lone loss came by just two points. Hamilton is only 1-3 ATS in home games this season. Also, the Argonauts are on a 5-2 SU and ATS run when off of a loss to a division rival. Look for the Argos McLeod Bethel-Thompson to trade blows with Tiger-Cats QB Jeramiah Masoli throughout this game and I just don't see Hamilton as being able to pull away from a fired up Argonauts team ready to fight hard after last week's unexpected loss. This is the Argos chance to pull even with Hamilton in the standings! 10* TORONTO |
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09-02-18 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan OVER 54 | Top | 23-31 | Push | 0 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
Total of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #643 Sunday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Saskatchewan Roughriders vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3 ET - The Blue Bombers have a strong offense, averaging 31.5 points per game on the season. However, the Winnipeg defense has allowed 41.5 points per game in their last two. Also, this series has a history of being very high-scoring. In fact, each of the last five meetings between these teams in Saskatchewan have gone over the total. Also, the weather Sunday afternoon in Regina is forecast to be gorgeous with rather light winds and no precipitation. With that said, both offenses will be able to 'air it out" here and Roughriders QB Zach Collaros has been playing very well of late. Facing the struggling Winnipeg defense should help him to stay hot! Also note that Saskatchewan totaled over 360 passing yards in each of their 3 match-ups with the Blue Bombers last season. Winnipeg is 11-2 to the over the last 13 times in games where their line ranged from +3 to -3. When off of a loss against a divisional foe, the Blue Bombers are 8-3 to the over. The Bombers will be hungry to bounce back after losing at Calgary last week. As a home favorite of 3 points or less, the Roughriders are 20-11 to the over including a perfect 4-0 to the over in recent seasons. More of the same here! 10* OVER the total in Saskatchewan |
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08-31-18 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 51 | Top | 21-11 | Loss | -108 | 71 h 32 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Game #641 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - This is contrarian in a number of ways. First off many will think it is contrarian to even play CFL now that CFB is underway and regular season NFL is soon to follow. The answer there is that value is value! Secondly, this is contrarian because the long-term trending relating to his match-up would point you to the under. Here are the key facts that matter: Montreal has been much better on offense the past two weeks as they have averaged 24.5 points per game and even rallied for a win last week versus Toronto. The Alouettes have been getting much better QB play. The problem for Montreal remains a defense that has allowed an average of 36 points per game their last 5 games. Keep in mind that Ottawa is favored by about 16 here so if Motnreal hits their recent average of 24 that should have them given up 40 and you've got a game total in the mid-60s which is way past the posted total on this game. The Redblacks are fresh off of a bye week and they averaged 36 points per game their last 3 games before their bye. Those big point total averages came against much better defenses than that of Montreal's. Also, the weather is going to be great in Ottawa on Friday evening for this one. All signs pointing to plenty of points for the Redblacks and the Als in this one. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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08-25-18 | Winnipeg v. Calgary -8.5 | Top | 26-39 | Win | 100 | 73 h 36 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #366 Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 3:30 ET - The Stampeders entered last week's action 7-0 on the season and then ran into a buzzsaw at Saskatchewan and got drilled by the Roughriders. Of course Calgary is seeking payback against anyone in their path this week and that means the Blue Bombers are absolutely in trouble here. Simply put, Winnipeg is in the wrong place at the wrong time. If the Stampeders were on the road again this week a bounce back would be tougher but, at home, I just don't see them being denied. Couple that with the fact that there is major difference in terms of these defenses and you have a blowout game likely here. While the Blue Bombers are allowing 24 points per game this season, the Stampeders were allowing just 12 points per game in their 7 game winning streak. One game doesn't change everything for Calgary. This is still the best team in the CFL and another key I like about their "edge" here is that the Stamps are 9-4 in divisional games since the start of last season while Winnipeg is just 1-2 in divisional games this season plus got knocked out of the post-season last year by another divisional foe, Edmonton. In other words the Blue Bombers are just 1-3 their last 4 divisional games while Calgary (including last year's post-season win over Edmonton) is 10-4 their last 14 divisional games. Big difference as the West is the tough division and the Stampeders continue to prove they are the best in the west! Situational edge, home field edge, and edge on defense all add up to a home rout here. 10* CALGARY |
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08-24-18 | Toronto -5.5 v. Montreal | 22-25 | Loss | -108 | 54 h 14 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Game #363 Friday 8* Toronto Argonauts (-) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 7:30 ET - Teams from the West are 15-6 against teams from the East this season. Why am I mentioning that in a game that features two East Division teams? It is simply because Toronto has faced a brutal early season schedule. The Argonauts have played only ONE divisional game this season. That means they've been batting tougher West Division teams for almost this entire season thusfar. Now, after possibly salvaging their season with a late rally for a win over BC last week, the Argos will take advantage of finally facing a divisional foe (and the worst one at that). Though this game is at Montreal, the Alouettes are 0-4 this season at home. Toronto has momentum from last week's win and also has rejuvenated confidence about making a move up the East Division standings thanks to last week's exciting win. That said, the Argonauts know they must take advantage of facing a weak Montreal team that is dealing with a plethora of uncertainty at the QB position. Look for the Argos to take advantage and crush the Als. The Alouettes hung on for the cover last week as a massive underdog on Saturday but they are still just 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games when playing with 6 or less days of rest between contests. While Montreal is reeling the Argonauts appear ready to go on a bit of a surge! 8* TORONTO |
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08-18-18 | BC v. Toronto +3 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Game #374 Saturday 8* Toronto Argonauts (+) vs BC Lions @ 4 ET - The Lions are off of a big home win versus Edmonton and have another key divisional game, hosting Saskatchewan, on deck. As for the Argonauts, they are coming off of a much needed bye week and, on deck, they have a match-up with the "trash can fire" that is Montreal. In other words, Toronto is certainly in a much better scheduling situation in terms of the rest factor and the lookahead factor. Other keys to this play are the fact that this line has gone from a pick'em to BC now being favored by a full field goal. This has led to great line value here. Keep in mind, the Lions are an ugly 0-4 SU on the road this season! The Argonauts are 3-1 (both SU and ATS) when playing with 2 or more weeks of rest between games. 8* TORONTO |
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08-17-18 | Ottawa v. Winnipeg OVER 53.5 | Top | 44-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #371 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 8:30 ET - The Redblacks scored only 24 points versus Montreal last week but this was despite Ottawa QB Trevor Harris throwing for nearly 500 yards! In other words, the low point total versus the Alouettes was certainly a bit of a fluke. With both the Redblacks and Blue Bombers off of wins and with Winnipeg possibly peeking ahead to their huge game at league-best Calgary next week and Ottawa possibly peeking ahead to their bye week, I would not be surprised to see both defenses struggle in this match-up. There is simply a natural let-up in cases like this in terms of defensive intensity and the fact that this is a non-divisional match-up also adds to the likelihood of plenty of points. The over is 13-5 in Ottawa's last 18 Friday games. As for Winnipeg, the over is 10-4 in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record. Also, in weeks 10 through 15 of a season, the over is on an 8-3 run in Blue Bombers games. Look for a huge game from QB Matt Nichols here for the home team but the Bombers defense is not going to slow down a red hot Trevor Harris either and this one turns into a shootout. 10* OVER the total in Winnipeg |
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08-11-18 | Montreal v. Ottawa OVER 49.5 | Top | 17-24 | Loss | -109 | 94 h 15 m | Show |
Total Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Game #355 Saturday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs Montreal Alouettes @ 8:00 ET - The over is 2-0 in the Alouettes last two games as they've allowed an average of 47 points per game. While it is true that there were a lot of points off Johnny Manziel's turnovers last week it is also true that Montreal's defense has allowed 481 yards or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Redblacks have also had issues on defense as they've seemed to wear down as games have gone on. Ottawa has allowed an average of 411 yards per game their past 4 games. Also, the Redblacks have given up 25 points or more in 3 of their last 4 games. The Als run game has produced an average of 154 yards per game on the ground the past two weeks and this will open things up for the passing offense to get things going this week as the Ottawa D has to respect Montreal's ground game. Other than a tough game versus league-best Calgary, the Redblacks offense has been in high-gear, particularly through the air, and the porous pass defense of the Alouettes will be tested early and often in this one. The end result should be the over improving to 3-1 in the Redblacks last 4 games. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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08-10-18 | Hamilton +5.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 35 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Game #353 Friday 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - Everyone has been piling on to the Blue Bombers here and I am going contrarian and grabbing the Tiger-Cats in this one. Hamilton is not only 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games at Winnipeg, the Ti-Cats are also 5-1 SU in those last 6 visits! Overall, Hamilton has earned a well-deserved reputation as "road warriors" at the betting window as they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 road games overall! Winnipeg opened up as a 4-point choice here but is now as high as a -5.5 early in the week but this is a Blue Bombers team that has lost 10 of its last 14 games against Hamilton SU. The Tiger-Cats beat them at home in June and certainly Winnipeg would like revenge but the Ti-Cats outgained the Blue Bombers by 200 yards in that beatdown. Prior to that game the road team had a yardage edge over the home team in each of the 3 prior meetings and I would not be surprised to see that trend resume here as Hamilton's road warrior efforts continue. Even though the Blue Bombers have been hot they've played a lot of weaker teams and the Tiger-Cats have a bye week on deck so they're going hard all game in this one. 10* HAMILTON |
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08-03-18 | Hamilton v. Montreal +7 | Top | 50-11 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 54 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach CFL Game #376 Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7:30 ET - The Tiger-Cats went 6-12 last season and they are 2-4 so far this season. The Alouettes went 3-15 last season and are 1-5 so far this season. The point is that both teams are on track to have similar seasons to last year and there is not a lot that separates these two teams and yet Hamilton is laying a solid 7 on the road here at Montreal. The last time these two teams met in Quebec the Ti-Cats were favored in the 3 range. This means we're getting solid line value with the "ugly home dog" in this one. The key for the Als here is that one of their weaknesses has certainly been the play of the offensive line this season. However, Johnny Manziel gets the start at QB for Montreal here and certainly his running ability adds a factor that favors the Als in this match-up. Manziel as a run threat will keep the Hamilton defense off balance and, keep in mind, they're rushing defense is last in the league in terms of yards allowed per carry. That also makes RB Tyrell Sutton a threat to the Tiger-Cats defense as he may get more than his typical number of carries in this match-up. Additionally, Sutton has become a bigger threat in the passing game this season and that means Manziel and Sutton will both be dual threats in this match-up. This is a double revenge spot for the Als too as they lost badly in both games last season against Hamilton after previously covering each of the prior two meetings. Payback here. As strong as Ti-Cats QB Jeremiah Masoli's passing numbers are this season he has thrown more picks than touchdowns on the year! Hamilton continues to be over-rated and this could be their 4th straight SU loss and, at the very least, I am projecting this one to be an ATS loss for the stumbling Tiger-Cats. Hamilton is 1-5 ATS (and SU!) as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points. Look for the Alouettes to improve to a long-term 6-3 ATS as a home dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points as Manziel and Sutton shine! The hungry Als are gunning hard for their first home win of the season as they won't get another chance at home until 3 weeks from now. 10* MONTREAL |
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08-02-18 | Ottawa v. Toronto +6.5 | Top | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 7 h 56 m | Show |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFL Game #372 Thursday 10* Top Play Toronto Argonauts (+) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Simply put this is an inflated line and it has resulted in great value on the other side. Ottawa opened up at a 3.5 point road favorite in this one and is now up to a 6.5 in most spots. Yes the Redblacks are having a much better start to this season than the Argonauts but let's not forget that Toronto is at home here plus coming off of a bad loss last week while the Redblacks are on the road plus off of a huge win last week. From a situational standpoint this spot favors the Argos in a big way and the more time back-up QB James Franklin adjusting to his starting role in the absence of the injured Ricky Ray, the more improvement we should see from him. Not only are the Argonauts a sizable dog here they have won 7 of their last 9 meetings with the Redblacks SU. Also, the Argos are 9-1 SU the last ten times they've faced Ottawa at home in Toronto! The Redblacks are 3-9 ATS as a favorite in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Also, Ottawa is 2-9 ATS when off of a win against a division rival. Look for the Argonauts to improve to 3-0 ATS the last 3 times they were at home with a posted total in range of 45.5 to 49 points. 10* TORONTO |
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07-28-18 | Calgary v. Saskatchewan +6.5 | Top | 34-22 | Loss | -105 | 50 h 18 m | Show |
Divisional Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Game #368 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 9 ET - Nice scheduling situation for the Roughriders here. They come into this game with plenty of momentum. Saskatchewan is off of back to back wins versus the Tiger-Cats which including rallying for a win by a double digit margin at Hamilton last week. Additionally, the Riders had a bye week in between the two victories over the Ti-Cats and they also hold a rest edge over the Stampeders this week. That is because Calgary is off of a Saturday win over Montreal while Saskatchewan's win at Hamilton was a Thursday game. Two extra days of rest, home field edge with arguably the most passionate fans in the CFL, and a chance to upset the a division rival who remains undefeated on the season. There is no question the Roughriders are going to be ready to go and I love the home dog value in this one. Keep in mind the Riders had a huge game on the ground last week and that balanced offensive attack (most CFL teams are pass-happy) is going to keep the Stampeders defense off-balance in this match-up. I am well aware of the fact that the Stamps have held the upper hand in recent meetings between these teams but Calgary has average just 25.3 points per game their past 3 games and their being asked to win this tough road game by 7 or more. That's a big ask and I love the home dog in this match-up. 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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07-28-18 | Ottawa +6.5 v. Hamilton | 21-15 | Win | 100 | 46 h 32 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Game #365 Saturday 8* Ottawa Redblacks (+) @ Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 4 ET - The Tiger-Cats blew their game last week versus Saskatchewan and continue to struggle on the defensive end. The Redblacks are off of a win versus BC and have certainly played well against teams not named the Stampeders this season! The fact is that Calgary has been a few notches above everyone else this season but Ottawa has done well other than when facing the Stamps. The Redblacks also have a history of doing well versus the Ti-Cats as they've won 6 of the last 8 meetings. Additionally, Ottawa has covered 4 of its last 5 visits to Hamilton. This line has consistently moved toward the home team so far this week (as of Thursday night) and that has led to additional value with the road dog in this one. Look for the Redblacks to stay inside the generous number in this day game Saturday. 8* OTTAWA |
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07-21-18 | Winnipeg -117 v. Toronto | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 89 h 6 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #375 Saturday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (-) @ Toronto Argonauts @ 4 ET - The Blue Bombers are fired up off of last week's loss at BC as they blew a 17-0 lead by allowing 20 points unanswered. Even though Toronto put up some big yardage last week that came against an Edmonton pass defense which has been an issue this season. The Argos won't find as many openings against Winnipeg and the Blue Bombers are going to be ready to go in a big way here after truly blowing last week's game against the Lions. Winnipeg has covered 4 of its last 5 meetings with Toronto. Also, the Blue Bombers are 10-1 ATS the last 11 times they were coming off of a game where they failed to get the cash. These teams meet again next week at Winnipeg so there certainly is no lookahead for the Blue Bombers here. Considering that factor plus last week's loss plus the fact that the West has dominated the East in recent seasons and you have all the right ingredients for a road rout here. That said, this line is offering a great bargain that has me elevating to top play status. 10* WINNIPEG |
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07-20-18 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 53 | Top | 25-29 | Win | 100 | 69 h 42 m | Show |
Total of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #373 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Ottawa Redblacks vs BC Lions @ 7:30 ET - The Redblacks overall season numbers don't look that great but they had to play undefeated Calgary twice and the Stampeders are playing the best football of any team in the CFL so far this season. In their two games NOT against Calgary this season, Ottawa has averaged scoring 34 points per game. In other words don't be surprised if the Redblacks put up plenty of points here against a BC team that was the worst team in the West last season and is likely to finish in that final spot again this season. However, part of the reason I like the over here is that the Lions rattled off 20 straight points to rally for the win versus Winnipeg last week. Not only is that the type of win that builds confidence for an offense, it also can leave a defense a little flat in the the next game. With BC off of an upset win and Ottawa ready to take out their frustration against anybody but Calgary, this game will surprise some people and turn into a shootout as the over improves to 6-2 in the Lions last 8 games! Lulay had a huge game for BC last week and threw for over 300 yards. Redblacks QB Harris has been bad versus the Stampeders but great in the other two games! More of the same here. 10* OVER the total in Ottawa |
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07-19-18 | Saskatchewan v. Hamilton -10.5 | 31-20 | Loss | -101 | 45 h 29 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFL Game #372 Thursday 8* Hamilton Tigercats (-) vs Sasktachewan Roughriders @ 7:30 ET - These teams had a bye last week. The week prior, they played each other and the Riders got the win at home. However, there is no denying the Saskatchewan passing game has major issues right now and the Ti-cats rate a big edge in that department. Hamilton's Masoli ranks 2nd in the league for passing yardage and he and his teammates are ready for revenge here. Look for the Tigercats rush defense to be a point of emphasis here after the Roughriders rushing attack helped lead to their upset win two weeks ago. Time for payback here and these Ti-cats had big wins over Winnipeg and Edmonton in their two prior games before losing to the Riders. Of course that is why Hamilton is priced high here but don't let the big points scare you. The last 6 times that the Tigercats were off of a straight-up loss they have covered their next game all six times! Look for that streak to make it 7-0 ATS with a blowout revenge win in this match-up. 8* HAMILTON |
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07-14-18 | Winnipeg v. BC +4.5 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 15 h 2 m | Show |
Canadian Connection - Rickenbach CFL Game #366 Saturday 10* Top Play BC Lions (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 10 ET - The Lions got thoroughly embarrassed last week in a 41-19 loss at Winnipeg. Look for BC to make up for that ugly defeat here at home this week. The Lions had won 3 of their 4 prior meetings with the Blue Bombers previous to last week's ugly loss. Payback time here. From a situational perspective this spot favors BC in a big way. Not only are they getting a shot at quick revenge (after last week's ugly loss), the Lions also have a non-conference match-up on deck. Although the Blue Bombers also have a match-up with an Eastern Conference foe on deck, their game is against the defending Grey Cup champion Argonauts. Look for Saturday's game to prove to be one of those where one team simply wants it more. Yes, Winnipeg is the better overall team but the situational aspect of this one is likely to leave the Blue Bombers a little flat while BC comes in fired up and hungry. Long-term the Lions are a fantastic 56-33 ATS when they are an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points and they get the job done again here. 10* BC Lions |
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07-13-18 | Toronto v. Edmonton -9.5 | Top | 15-16 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 36 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Game #363 Friday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos vs Toronto Argonauts @ 9 ET - The Eskimos will be in a foul mood after they let last week's game get away from them. Certainly some credit is due to the Argonauts for getting the "close out" score on that game but the fact is Edmonton put up a ton of yardage in the game. The Eskimos just didn't finish their drives and so they ended up short on the scoreboard. Look for them to make up for that here. Not only will Edmonton take advantage of being back at home this week, they also have a bye week on deck so they can go "all out here" and I don't foresee them taking their foot off the gas after what happened last week against this same Toronto team. The Eskimos had won 4 of their last 5 meetings with the Argonauts before last week's loss. At home Edmonton has won 6 of the last 7 meetings SU. Now, of course, the number here is a sizable one so the Eskimos don't just need a SU win, they need a blowout. But that is precisely what I feel occurs here as Edmonton has revenge and has a bye week on deck. The D will be fired up after giving up the late score last week and the offense will be too after they scored far too few points last week considering the way they moved the ball down the field all game long. That means both units for the Eskimos are bringing their "A game" this week. The Argos are just 8-17 ATS in non-conference games and 10-17 ATS last 27 times they've been an underdog. In other words, blowout time here! 10* EDMONTON |
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07-12-18 | Calgary v. Ottawa +3.5 | 27-3 | Loss | -106 | 32 h 35 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFL Game #362 Thursday 8* Ottawa Redblacks (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7:30 ET - While it is true that Calgary is the only undefeated team remaining in the CFL this season, it is also true that Ottawa is the only other team that does not have multiple losses. The Stampeders certainly rank as the better team and have proven to be the class of the CFL early this season. However, the Redblacks are at home and with this line opening up with Calgary as only a 3-point favorite, something looks a little "fishy" here. Sure enough the majority of the tickets are coming in on the Stampeders and this line has already moved to a 3.5 in almost all shops as of mid-day Wednesday. Following along with the expression of "seems too good to be true" I am absolutely going contrarian here and going with the Redblacks as a hungry home dog while the masses jump on undefeated Calgary. Look for Ottawa, off of a double digit loss to these Stampeders two weeks ago, to prove to be the hungrier team in this one. Keep in mind, motivation in football goes a long way! In terms of technical support for this play, Calgary is 0-3 ATS in their last 3 visits to Ottawa. The Redblacks are a stellar 14-5 ATS their last 19 as an underdog! Also, even though the Stampeders have the rest edge (bye last week), the Redblacks are a super 13-7 ATS when playing with 6 or less days of rest between games! 8* OTTAWA |
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07-07-18 | Edmonton -3 v. Toronto | Top | 17-20 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Game #355 Saturday 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) @ Toronto Argonauts @ 5:30 ET - The Argonauts are off of their bye week while the Eskimos are off of a rather satisfying blowout win over the Lions. As a result, 0-2 Toronto is getting a lot of respect from the betting markets here and this line has been coming down all week on road favorite Edmonton. The fact is that it was practically a miracle that the Argos won the Grey Cup last year and they are still being held up too high in the eyes of the markets. Yes, they are at home and rested and hungry but they're just not a very good football team. Even last year when they won it all, the Argonauts went only 3-7 in the regular season in games against the West Division. The West is simply superior to the East and it has been this way for multiple seasons now. As for the Eskimos, they went 7-1 in regular season games against the East Division. So here we have a team in an 88% winning spot laying just 3 points against a team in a 30% winning spot. I'll gladly take advantage of the line movement here and lay the small number with the road favorite. The Eskimos are 10-6 SU and ATS in games where their line ranges from -3 to +3. As for Toronto, they are 6-10 SU and 5-11 ATS with those same parameters. Also, just because the Argonauts have lost 2 in a row it does not mean they're going to bounce back. In fact, the Argos are 4-8 SU and 3-9 ATS the last dozen times they've entered a game on a losing streak of 2 or more games! 10* EDMONTON |
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07-06-18 | Ottawa v. Montreal +7.5 | Top | 28-18 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #354 Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Ottawa RedBlacks @ 7:30 ET - Nice set up for the home dog here. Montreal is off of a confidence-boosting win at Saskatchewan last week. Yes QB Drew Lilly got hurt and may not be available this week but they've got two capable back-ups at the ready this week. The Alouettes are now back home where they are looking to make up for an absolutely disgusting home opener two weeks ago. Not only that but the Als have a bye on deck as they are not in action last week. Their situation is much better than that of the RedBlacks. Ottawa is on the road again for a 2nd straight week and, though this is a divisional game, it is "only" Montreal. As a result, the RedBlacks - whom lost at Calgary last week - could get caught looking ahead to a home rematch with the Stampeders coming up on Thursday. You can see why this scheduling situation favors Montreal and the fact is that Ottawa would love to be the first team to hand undefeated Calgary a loss. That said, the fact this line has moved all the way up to a 7.5 is offering exceptional underdog value on the Alouettes. The Als are a long-term 3-1 ATS as a home dog of 7.5 to 10 points and all 3 of those wins were outright upset victories! As for Ottawa, they've gone an ugly 2-8 ATS (and only 3-7 SU!) the last 10 times they've been favored in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Look for the home dog to have plenty of fight in this one as Coach Mike Sherman has rallied the troops with last week's win and has this team believing. They certainly won't "lay an egg" like they did in their first home game this season. Alouettes battle hard here and, even if they fall short of the outright upset, they get the all-important cover. 10* MONTREAL |
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07-05-18 | Hamilton v. Saskatchewan +7.5 | 13-18 | Win | 100 | 31 h 34 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFL Game #352 Thursday 8* Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 9 ET - There is a little something called "professional pride" that absolutely does mean quite a lot. The reason I bring that up here is because Sasktachewan is off of an embarrassing home loss to Montreal last week where their two back-up quarterbacks combined to throw 4 interceptions. I am well aware of the fact that QB Zach Collaros is still out for the Roughriders but you'd better believe this fired up team is going to bring a better effort at home in Week 4 after laying an egg in Week 3. Perhaps guilty of overlooking an Alouettes team last week that was winless on the season, there is no way that Saskatchewan is overlooking a Hamilton team that is making plenty of noise early this season in the CFL. Both teams are off next week so there is certainly no lookahead here. However, while the Roughriders are very hungry here, the Tiger-Cats could get caught feeling a little too good about themselves after back to back wins over West Division foes. Now 2-1 against the West already this season but, keep in mind, Hamilton went just 2-8 against the West last season! As for Saskatchewan, they are only 1-2 against East Division foes after going a rock solid 6-2 against the East last year. The point is that, considering all of the above, with the line move from an opener of 5.5 all the way up to a 7.5 as of Wednesday afternoon we are getting a ton of line value with the home dog in this game. The Roughriders have covered 5 of the last 6 times they've hosted the Ti-Cats and they get the cash again here! 8* SASKATCHEWAN |
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06-30-18 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan -10 | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -115 | 97 h 21 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Game #378 Saturday 10* Top Play Saskatchewan Roughriders (-) vs Montreal Alouettes @ 9 ET - The big story out of Saskatchewan this week is the loss of QB Zach Collaros to injury. He got hurt in last week's action and now has put on the 6-game list so he is going to be out for awhile. This line had opened up at 10 and moved up to as high as a 12 and now, after the injury news was confirmed Tuesday afternoon, it has dropped down to as low as a -10 again. The fact is that Brandon Bridge is a very capable back-up and his athleticism (behind a suspect Roughriders offensive line) is an added plus. Speaking of suspect offensive lines, the Alouettes have been awful in the trenches and that certainly has played a role in Montreal scoring just 10 points in each of their first two games. Once again, just like last week, the Als are "saying all the right things" heading into this game but that didn't help them in Week 2 and it won't help them this week either. The fact is that if Montreal couldn't get their house in order for their home opener last week they're really going to struggle on the road this week. That's because Saskatchewan is angry off of a loss last week and will be ready to respond. The Roughriders had beaten the Grey Cup Champion Argonauts in Week 1 and, not surprisingly, came out flat at Ottawa last week and got drilled. Now, off of a 40-17 loss, the Riders will respond at home this week. Last season they went 6-2 against East Division teams and Montreal is now 3-17 since the start of last season. Too many penalties, an inability to score points, a questionable secondary...the list goes on for the trouble Alouettes. On Saturday night they are in the wrong place at the wrong time and this gets ugly! 10* SASKATCHEWAN |
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06-29-18 | Winnipeg v. Hamilton OVER 55.5 | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -112 | 72 h 24 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Game #373 Friday 10* Top Play OVER the total in Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - The CFL is heavily pass-dominated due to being a 3-down league. That said, when the quarterbacks are firing on all cylinders, points can be put up in a hurry and that is the case with BOTH of these teams right now. Hamilton is coming off of a huge performance last week as they got the 38-21 win at Edmonton. Having WR Terrence Toliver back certainly helps the offense and they're going to need all the help they can get this week. As strong as Jeremiah Masoli has been for the Tiger-Cats, take note of rookie Chris Streveler for the Blue Bombers. The pivot has helped lead the way to an average of 43 points per game for Winnipeg in the first two weeks. I know the under has been the trend in recent meetings between these teams but this one has all the makings of a shootout between Masoli and Streveler and the weather is also forecast to be ideal for this game as well. Again, ignore the trends here (most trends favoring the under) and go with current style/level of play which says this game is going to be up and down the field all night long with big gains through the air at Tim Hortons Field. 10* OVER the total in Hamilton |
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06-28-18 | Ottawa v. Calgary -7.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 3 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFL Game #371 Thursday 8* Calgary Stampeders (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 9 ET - The Stampeders have a bye week on deck and then face the Redblacks again, at Ottawa, the following week. In other words, Calgary will be fully focused here and that is bad news for the Redblacks because the Stampeders defense is firing on all cylinders right now. Calgary is allowing just 10.5 points per game so far this season. Even though the Stampeders got some revenge last season (a win and a tie in June versus Ottawa) for losing the Grey Cup to the Redblacks in 2016, this game still carries extra meaning for Calgary. They never put the good beating on Ottawa that they wanted to in 2017. Now, after waiting a full year for another opportunity I sense a home blowout is forthcoming for the Stamps Thursday. They have been so strong on both sides of the ball. The Redblacks are in a tough situation with their first divisional game on deck while Calgary is off next week. Also, Ottawa took advantage of a Saskatchewan team last week that was off of a big week 1 win. Even though one could argue that the Stampeders are also off of a big revenging win last week too, the fact is that the recent history guarantees there is no way the Stamps will overlook the Redblacks. They call all out here thanks to having a bye on deck and, indeed, this will be a home blowout. 8* CALGARY |
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06-23-18 | Calgary -3.5 v. Toronto | Top | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Game #367 Saturday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) @ Toronto Argonauts @ 7 ET - There was only 1 upset in Week 1 of CFL action and I expect that to be the case again when Week 2 is in the books. That upset happened last night when Hamilton won at Edmonton. As for the other games this week, favored Ottawa rolled Saskatchewan Thursday and favored Winnipeg crushed Montreal yesterday. Look for another one 3-1 SU week for the favorites as Calgary gets the win at Toronto tonight. This is a revenge spot for the Stampeders as they lost the Grey Cup game (for the 2nd straight season!) in November and that defeat came at the hands of the Argonauts. Calgary's defense looked like they are jelling quicker than expected the way the played in Week 1. Also, the Stampeders showed a very balanced attack on offense. Keep in mind Toronto had only 5 points through the first three quarters in their Week 1 loss and this one truly does have road rout written all over it. The East/West dichotomy continues to show the strength of West Division teams compared to those from the East Division. Toronto went just 3-7 against teams from the West last season while the Stamps were a solid 6-1-1 against teams from the East last season. The Stampeders also have gone 14-2 SU (11-5 ATS) the past two seasons against teams with a losing record. The Argonauts have gone 6-10 SU (and ATS) versus teams with a winning record the past two season. 10* CALGARY |
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06-22-18 | Winnipeg v. Montreal +2 | Top | 56-10 | Loss | -106 | 71 h 17 m | Show |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Game #364 Friday 10* Top Play Montreal Alouettes (+) vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 7 ET - Certainly this qualifies as a contrarian play but trends have a funny way of reversing after being hugely "off" in one year. Last season the Alouettes were the worst ATS team in the league as they went 4-14 ATS. The Blue Bombers were the best ATS team in the league as they went 13-5 ATS. Winnipeg did get the cover in week one but it was a painful SU loss for them as they gave up a late TD pass at Edmonton which tied the game and then, soon after that, allowed the game-winning field goal. That is a heart-breaking gut-wrenching road loss that is tough to get over. Keep in mind the Blue Bombers were eliminated from the post-season by the Eskimos last year so they wanted that game badly. This makes the situation even tougher to deal with. Adding another element to the value with Montreal here is that the Blue Bombers have had so much success against them in recent meetings that it is easy for Winnipeg to overlook the Alouettes. Last week's game the Blue Bombers were fully focused and yet still lost (toughest type of loss in final minutes) and now Winnipeg is facing a team they normally overlook. This is a very tricky and tough situation for the road team and the Blue Bombers are still wishing they had a healthy Matt Nichols at QB. Everyone will be looking at the small road fave in this one but the highly-motivated home team playing their home opener will be ready to go here. The Alouettes hung in until the 4th quarter at BC last week and that was a great opportunity to work in changes in term of personnel and coaching. They'll be better for it (and still hungry) here in Week Two and now at home. 10* MONTREAL |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa -133 | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 48 h 0 m | Show | |
Thursday Thrasher - Rickenbach CFL Game #362 Thursday 8* Ottawa RedBlacks Money Line (-) vs Saskatchewan Roughriders @ 7:30 ET - The reason I am recommending the money line in this one is because it has dipped as low as -133 as of Tuesday evening. Considering this line opened up at -3 for Ottawa and that the RedBlacks are currently a -2.5 as of Tuesday evening, there is a lot of value in the low price on the money line option in this game. This will be a tough spot for the Roughriders as they are off of a huge revenging win last week. Saskatchewan beat the reigning Grey Cup Champion Argonauts. Keep in mind it was Toronto that beat the Roughriders the week prior to defeating Calgary for the championship. In other words, that was most certainly a huge revenging win for Saskatchewan as they avenged a missed opportunity at playing for the Grey Cup last season. This is a tough enough situation in and of itself but, making the task even tougher is the fact that the Roughriders now are on the other end of the revenge angle this week! Last post-season Saskatchewan knocked Ottawa out of the playoffs. Payback is on order here and the RedBlacks certainly have fresh legs as they opened the season with a bye last week. As I mentioned in my preseason preview article, Ottawa fortified both sides of the line in the trenches coming into this season. I also like the fact that the RedBlacks have Trevor Harris back at QB. This one sets up about as well as a game can from a situational perspective and I am grabbing the line value on the money line. 8* OTTAWA |
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06-16-18 | Hamilton v. Calgary OVER 54.5 | 14-28 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Game #375 Saturday 8* OVER the total in Calgary Stampeders vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 7 ET - The Stampeders are one of the top scoring teams in the CFL. Their defense is a question mark coming into the season due to concerns in the secondary. Hamilton is led by a top offensive mind in head coach June Jones. With Jeremiah Masoli at QB and now Johnny "Football" Manziel backing him up, the Tiger-Cats offense has plenty of pop too. I look for this one to turn into quite the shootout at Calgary tonight as a result. The total has moved a little higher since the opener and sharp money is the reason why. Both games went over the total last season but Hamilton was thoroughly embarrassed 60-1 in the lone meeting in Calgary last year. The Ti-Cats will be looking for payback here and they should score plenty, but they won't be able to stop the potent Stampeders offense. The over is 7-2 the past two seasons when Hamilton is an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Expect a shootout here. 8* OVER the total in Calgary |
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06-15-18 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan +2.5 | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Game #374 Friday 8* Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) vs Toronto Argonauts @ 9 ET - The Roughriders were ousted from the playoffs by the Argonauts last season and are looking forward to this opportunity for revenge. Saskatchewan is also known for having a great home crowd and they're certainly fired up to open up the Roughriders new season at home. The West is known for being the stronger division in recent seasons and so it comes as no surprise that the Argonauts are only 7-15 SU versus the West the past two seasons while Saskatchewan is a respectable 11-7 SU versus the East the past two seasons. The Argos also have a "target" on their backs this season since they are the defending Grey Cup champs after their improbable run to the championship last season. The Roughriders have won 3 straight regular season match-ups with the Argonauts and will get their payback for the loss in the post-season at Toronto last year. As a home dog of 3 points or less Saskatchewan is a long-term 20-4 ATS - and SU! The Roughriders are also 8-3 ATS in Friday games while Toronto is on an 0-5 ATS run in Friday games. 8* SASKATCHEWAN |
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06-14-18 | Edmonton -7 v. Winnipeg | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 5 m | Show | |
ESPN Smash Pass - Rickenbach CFL Game #371 Thursday 8* Edmonton Eskimos (-) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 8:30 ET - On the one hand, this is a revenge game for the Blue Bombers since they were knocked out of the post-season by Edmonton last season. On the other hand, the Eskimos finished behind Winnipeg in the standings and they certainly weren't happy about that as that forced them to play both of their post-season games on the road last year. Though Edmonton won the first one (at Winnipeg) they lost the second one and this is now an Eskimos team on a mission this season. Not only do they have a huge QB edge here (more on that in a moment) the road team is 5-1 SU in the last 6 meetings between these teams. Overall, Edmonton is on a 5-2 ATS run in recent meetings with the Blue Bombers. Now, about that QB edge, the Eskimos Mike Reilly was the leader in both TD passes and passing yardage last season! Though not on par with Edmonton's passing game (no one is!) Winnipeg at least looked "set" coming into this season with Matt Nichols at the helm. However, he is out for the season opener with a knee injury and this greatly weakens the Blue Bombers offense as the CFL is a league dominated by the passing attack. Huge edge for the Eskimos here and they are 5-2 ATS in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points. Winnipeg is 1-3 ATS in home games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points. Don't be "fooled" by this line. The Eskimos are a sizable road favorite with plenty of good reason! Lay it! 8* EDMONTON |
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11-26-17 | Calgary -6 v. Toronto | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -133 | 9 h 56 m | Show |
Game of the Month - Rickenbach CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs Toronto Argonauts @ 6 ET in CFL Grey Cup in Ottawa - Both teams off of tight wins last week but the Stampeders are 6-1-1 against East Division teams this year while the Argonauts only went 3-7 against West Division teams in the regular season. Also, Calgary is playing with a chip on their shoulder after what happened last season when they lost, ironically, in the Grey Cup at Toronto versus Ottawa. Now the Stampeders face Toronto but at Ottawa! After the OT loss last season, I don't see Calgary being denied here. Yes the price is a little "lofty" on the Stampeders here but their average point differential was about 10 points a game and that included late season match-ups where Calgary was merely coasting into the post-season. As for the Argonauts their point differential was only 1.4 points per game this season and, as noted above, they struggled badly against the West. The Stampeders knocked off Edmonton last week and are 20-5-1 SU (and 18-8 ATS) when off of a win over a divisional foe. Toronto is an ugly 8-16 SU (and 7-17 ATS!) when facing a team with a winning record. The Argonauts last 5 games versus the Stampeders have all been losses by a dozen points or more! The average margin of defeat in those games was 18.2 points per game. More of the same here! 10* CALGARY |
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11-19-17 | Edmonton v. Calgary -5 | Top | 28-32 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 21 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Calgary Stampeders (-) vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 4:30 ET - Calgary has been a team on a mission all season long after losing in the Grey Cup to Ottawa last season. That was a huge upset loss for the Stampeders and they are fully geared up to get back to the big game this season. They are rested here and hosting an Eskimos team they have defeated by 21 points each of the last two times they've hosted them. Also, Calgary had won each of the last two meetings in Edmonton before losing there last month. Suffice to say, payback is on order here. Both these teams have dynamic offenses but the key value here is not only that the Stampeders have the home field edge here, it is also the fact that they have the much better defense. They've allowed 11 points less per game than the Eskimos have this season. Calgary is 6-0 SU (and 5-1 ATS) their last 6 off of a bye and I expect a home rout here. Stampeders roll and get their chance again in the Grey Cup. 10* CALGARY |
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11-19-17 | Saskatchewan +3 v. Toronto | 21-25 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 58 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach CFL Sunday 8* Saskatchewan Roughriders @ Toronto Argonauts @ 1 ET - The Roughriders, with their win at Ottawa last week to advance to face the Argos today, are now 7-2 against teams from the East Division this season. Toronto is rested and at home for this game but they went 3-7 against teams from the West Division this season. This East versus West dichotomy is being overlooked here because everyone and their brother seems to be jumping on the small home fave. The Roughriders are all the way up to a 3 point dog now! I'll take it! 8* SASKATCHEWAN |
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11-12-17 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg +3.5 | Top | 39-32 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
Afternoon Annihilation - Rickenbach CFL Sunday 10* Top Play Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 4:30 ET - The Blue Bombers lost by a single point in this round of the playoffs last season while the Eskimos made it one round further but lost to the eventual Grey Cup Champion Ottawa Redblacks. With that said, both teams come into this match-up hungry but I think the big line move toward Edmonton here has opened up great line value with home dog Winnipeg. Yes, the Eskimos have a great passing attack led by Reilly but the Blue Bombers aerial attack under the direction of Nichols ranks right up there as well. This line is still just a 3 in some spots and the Eskimos are on a 7-18 ATS run as a road fave of 3 points or less although certainly I am happy getting even more than 3 and this line has headed up to the 3.5 mark as of early gameday morning. Overall, Edmonton has not done well in the favorite role as they are 2-8 ATS this season. The Blue Bombers have been at their best in games like this as they are 6-1 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record this season. Also, the past 3 seasons combined, when past the midway point of the season (game 10 onward), Winnipeg is an incredible 10-1 ATS against teams with a winning record. The Blue Bombers are continuing to be under-valued by the betting markets and I would not be surprised to see an outright upset here but certainly am glad to grab the generous points being offered to a team that went 7-2 ATS as an underdog this season. 10* WINNIPEG |
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11-12-17 | Saskatchewan +2.5 v. Ottawa | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 5 h 55 m | Show | |
Earliest Cash - Rickenbach Sunday CFL 8* Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 1 ET - No matter the sport it is hard to repeat as champions and, of course, the Redblacks must win today to have a chance to do that. I just don't see it happening. Other than last year's magical playoff run, Ottawa has truly been just a mediocre .500 team this season and last year. That said, note that Saskatchewan went 6-2 SU against the East Division this season while Ottawa went just 3-6-1 SU against the West Division this season. Also, when off of a loss against a division rival, the Roughriders went 4-1 ATS (and 5-0 SU!) this season! Additionally, as a home favorite of 3 points or less, Ottawa is 2-4 ATS the last 3 seasons combined. Grab all the points you can get here but you likely won't need them! 8* SASKATCHEWAN |
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11-04-17 | Toronto v. BC +1 | Top | 40-13 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 10* Top Play BC Lions (+) vs Toronto Argonauts @ 10 PM ET - As long-time followers know I am a contrarian. This is a classic case of line value being afforded to a contrarian. The Argonauts need to win this game to win the East Division and have a home playoff game. The Lions are relegated to the role of spoiler here. The road team has won and covered each of the last 7 meetings in this East-West match-up. As you can see, it would seem like Toronto would be the play here but guys it's just not that easy and I love taking a solid West team at home that is ticked off about missing the post-season and will take their role of spoiler and use it as motivation here. With BC knowing they are out of it and the Argos are in it, the Lions want to at least enjoy knowing they made things a little more difficult for Toronto by taking away their division title and costing them a home game in the post-season. Keep in mind the West generally dominates the East in the CFL and we also have the home field edge with the Lions here. BC is 4-3 against the East this season and Toronto is is 2-7 against the West this season. The Lions close the season with a home win. The Argos are 6-14 ATS with a line between -3 and +3. BC is 14-9 SU and ATS in non-conference games. 10* BC Lions |
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11-03-17 | Winnipeg +10.5 v. Calgary | 23-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Friday CFL 8* Winnipeg Blue Bombers (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 9:30 ET - The temperature is going to be in the single digits for this game at Calgary. The snow will have diminished by kickoff and also the winds will be light but there is no denying it is going to be very cold conditions for this one. That can make the ball tough to grip, tough to throw, and overall it tends to give the edge to the underdog because big points can be very valuable in conditions like this. After opening up at a 9.5 this line has now climbed as high as an 11 in some spots and I am happy to be a contrarian and fade the move here. The fact is that double digit points in conditions like this are a great value and this is especially true when you consider that this game is truly meaningless to the Stampeders. Sure, Calgary is off of a couple losses and may want to get a W just to get back into the win column before the post-season starts but they really do not need to win this game and that's why they're giving the start to back-up QB Andrew Buckley. He'll be making his first career CFL start. The Blue Bombers are also going with a back-up QB here but he has a lot more experience than Buckley and the reason that Dan LeFevour is getting the start is because starting QB Matt Nichols is injured and can't go here. LeFevour has much more CFL experience than Buckley. I know Buckley is a Calgary native and therefore use to playing in cold conditions like this but, keep in mind, LeFevour played his college ball at Central Michigan which is not exactly a balmy paradise! The fact is he has played in plenty of cold weather throughout his career. Winnipeg needs this game to lock up home field edge for a post-season game. Whether they get the outright win or not I certainly expect the Blue Bombers to be in this game all the way and that should be more than enough to stay inside this generous number. Winnipeg is 7-1 ATS in road games this season and they have a long-term mark of 7-3 ATS when the Blue Bombers enter a game on SU losing streak of 2 or more games. Look for the road team to improve to 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these teams as the Blue Bombers get it done for us in the "ice box" at Calgary tonight! 8* WINNIPEG |
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10-28-17 | Calgary v. Edmonton +3.5 | Top | 20-29 | Win | 100 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
Contrarian Crusher - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - At first glance it would appear that Calgary is the play. After all, they've beaten Edmonton 5 straight times, they're the top team in the CFL, and they're off of a loss. However, situational handicapping is the key and that is why this play could be considered "contrarian". The fact is that the Stampeders have already locked up the #1 seed. Also, with last week's loss they don't have to worry about trying to maintain a long winning streak as that defeat snapped Calgary's long winning run. As for Edmonton, they surely don't want to slow down here. They are still holding out hopes of hosting a playoff game and they need to keep winning to keep those hopes alive. Also, Edmonton's offense is red hot again and they showed a lot of resiliency in coming back and knocking off BC in OT last week. Eskimos QB Mike Reilly has a league-high 5,252 passing yards this season and Edmonton is truly firing on all cylinders right now on offense. The motivation for the Eskimos is very high here and couple that with home field and an underdog price and you've got big value here. 10* EDMONTON |
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10-27-17 | Hamilton +6.5 v. Ottawa | Top | 36-41 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
Game of the Year - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Top Play Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) @ Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Even though the Redblacks are off of their bye week and are the much more rested team, the Tiger-Cats are simply red hot right now and they also come in as the healthier team here in terms of key injuries. Ottawa just lost star receiver Brad Sinopoli and defensive starter Jerrell Gavins for the rest of the season. Conversely, Hamilton just got some good news with the expected return of leading receiver Jalen Saunders. Remember that the Ti-Cats began the season but 0-8 but they've been a different team since the coaching change to June Jones and are 5-3 in their last 8 games. Also, Ottawa is known for close games as, amazingly, 13 of their games this season have been decided by 7 points or less. Sure the Redblacks are hoping to win this game and keep their division title hopes alive but this Tiger-Cats team is a team on a mission. Remember that last week's game against Montreal was also a "meaningless" game for Hamilton and yet they crushed the Alouettes in domination fashion. Also, Redblacks starter QB Trevor Harris has won only 1 of his 5 starts versus the Tiger-Cats in his career! Hamilton is on an 8-3 ATS runs an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Ottawa is on a 5-8 ATS run as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points. A lot of value with a Tiger-Cats team that has shown they're building for the future and also note that the Redblacks are just 5-10 SU when off of a bye week. 10* HAMILTON |
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10-22-17 | Hamilton v. Montreal OVER 50.5 | 43-16 | Win | 100 | 3 h 28 m | Show | |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach CFL Sunday 8* OVER the total in Montreal Alouettes vs Hamilton Tiger-Cats @ 1 ET - The Tiger-Cats are a different team since June Jones took over as the head coach prior to Labor Day weekend. Of course Jones is known for his emphasis on offense and that is what has led me to this play here. Both of these teams are eliminated from post-season contention but both are looking to end the season with positive momentum. The Alouettes are off of a bye week while the Ti-Cats suffered a tough, tight late loss that sealed their post-season fate last week. Hamilton's offense will continue to produce while Montreal's defense has been atrocious during their current losing streak. The Als are expected to have Durant back under center for this one and I do expect the Alouettes to build off of a better offensive performance (24 points) against a solid Edmonton team prior to their bye week. Good weather expected here in Montreal, very mild with no precipitation and light winds. The Alouettes are 5-2 to the over this season as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Hamilton is on a 4-1 run to the over in road games with a posted total between 49.5 and 52 points. More of the same here. 8* OVER the total in Montreal |
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10-21-17 | Edmonton v. BC -118 | Top | 35-29 | Loss | -118 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 10* Top Play BC Lions (-) vs Edmonton Eskimos @ 10 PM ET - The Eskimos are finally back on track with back to back wins while BC has found wins hard to come by for many weeks now. However, that has set this one up with phenomenal line value as BC is hungry and desperate for a win to try to keep their post-season hopes alive. The Lions also are playing this game with double revenge as they lost both games this season to Edmonton. The home loss to the Eskimos (by just 3 points in June) is actually the only home loss in the last 7 meetings between these teams. It has truly been a home-dominated series and every game has been won by at least 3 points. However, with this line moving downward you can now get the Lions at a very fair price on the money line. I would suggest playing the money line (pick 'em range) if you have access to it and look for the Lions to improve on the following impressive numbers: BC 11-5 ATS when off of a loss to a division rival, BC 7-3 ATS when entering a game off of back to back SU losses. The Eskimos are a long-term 38-63 ATS when they enter a game off of 2 or more consecutive wins. 10* BC LIONS |
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10-20-17 | Saskatchewan +10.5 v. Calgary | 30-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 15 m | Show | |
Divisional Dominator Friday - Rickenbach CFL 8* Saskatchewan Roughriders (+) @ Calgary Stampeders @ 9 ET - The Roughriders held the Stampeders (best team in CFL) to just 5 field goals in their 15-9 home loss 4 weeks ago. Saskatchewan QB Kevin Glenn got hurt in that game but he's back now and coming off of a huge game last week (threw for nearly 400 yards) in the one point home loss to Ottawa. This game is very important for the Roughriders as they try to inch closer to securing a playoff spot. Though Calgary still has incentive too (locking up top spot in the league), this is a lot of points considering how well the Saskatchewan defense played against the Stampeders in their most recent meeting. Calgary is overpriced here simply because they've had such a great season (including at the betting window). The result is exceptional line value here. 8* SASKATCHEWAN |
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10-14-17 | BC +5.5 v. Winnipeg | Top | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 12 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach Saturday CFL 10* Top Play BC Lions (+) @ Winnipeg Blue Bombers @ 4 ET - The last 5 meetings between these teams have all been decided by 3 points or less with an average margin of just 2.4 points per game during this stretch. That said, I love having the 5.5 points here with a hungry BC team that is still very much alive in the playoff chase. The fact that Winnipeg's QB Matt Nichols is going to play actually helps us here because the injury he has is to his throwing hand and I expect this to impact him. The Lions certainly could "steal" this one on the road and, even if BC falls short of the upset they should still stay well within the inflated number in this one. When the Lions enter a game on a streak of 2 or more losses they are on a 7-2 ATS run. Also, as a road dog of 3.5 to 7 points, British Columbia has gone 4-0 ATS. As for Winnipeg, when in the 2nd half of a season and facing a team with a losing record on the year, the Blue Bombers have gone 4-8 ATS. This is the perfect set-up for an upset here with Winnipeg still reeling from their home loss to Hamilton. 10* BC LIONS |
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10-13-17 | Calgary v. Hamilton +10 | Top | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
Earliest Cash Top Play - Rickenbach Friday CFL 10* Hamilton Tiger-Cats (+) vs Calgary Stampeders @ 7 ET - The Stampeders are the top team in the CFL but they are off of a bye week and now laying practically double digits on the road against a Tiger-Cats team that has proven to be very resilient. After a horrific 0-8 start to the campaign, Hamilton has now gone 4-2 since their bye week. The two losses have each come by 8 points and one of those was in overtime. As you can see, the Ti-Cats haven't lost a game by more than 8 points in nearly 2 months. Additionally, as you can see, sometimes a teams fortune can quickly change after a bye week. Don't be surprised if Calgary is a little sluggish after their bye week. After all, the Stampeders have already clinched a post-season spot and they can't help but be peeking ahead at future divisional games too rather than worrying about an East Division foe like Hamilton. Calgary is 0-3 ATS as a road fave of 7.5 to 10 points. The Tiger-Cats are on a 7-3 ATS run as an underdog in a range of 3.5 to 9.5 points. 10* HAMILTON |
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10-09-17 | Edmonton -7.5 v. Montreal | Top | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 6 h 37 m | Show |
Daytime Dominator - Rickenbach Monday CFL 10* Top Play Edmonton Eskimos (-) @ Montreal Alouettes @ 2 ET - The Alouettes can say all they want about the fact that they're not going to stop fighting and they're still mathematically alive in the playoff race but the fact is that Montreal is playing dreadful football. They got crushed by the Stampeders last week and their still without starting QB Durant. The Als turned to Willy at QB versus Calgary and he was out of the game by the 3rd quarter as Montreal got demolished. Their offense is the worst in the league while the Eskimos, despite also being on a losing streak like the Als are, have the top offense in the league for yardage. Edmonton picked up a running back heading into this game whom is a solid blocking back but their ground game also could do some damage here against a Montreal rush defense that has been getting shredded on the ground. The Eskimos have dominated East Division teams this season and they still control their own destiny in the playoff races so I expect a big effort from a resurgent Edmonton team to surface in this afternoon match-up on Thanksgiving Day in Canada. Look for the Eskimos to improve to 6-1 against the East this season and, as for the cover, though Edmonton's full season ATS numbers are ugly, the Alouettes just don't have the offensive weapons to keep up here so I see the Eskimos finally cashing a ticket ATS in this one as well. Look for them to win by a dozen points or more. Though Montreal is playing with revenge they are 0-9 SU (and 2-7 ATS) this season when playing with revenge. Also, the Alouettes are on an 0-3 ATS and SU run in Monday games. More of the same here! 10* EDMONTON |
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10-07-17 | Ottawa v. BC -4.5 | Top | 30-25 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
Game of the Week - Rickenbach CFL Saturday 10* Top Play BC Lions (-) vs Ottawa Redblacks @ 7 ET - Both teams have struggled recently and will be looking to bounce back but this situation strongly favors the Lions and not just because of the home field edge with this game being played in BC. The Lions also are off of their bye week whereas last week the Redblacks were in action and lost a tight one versus Saskatchewan. While Ottawa is frustrated mentally and fatigued physically, BC is fired up and refreshed coming out of their bye week. The Lions know they are in a must win situation and I like the fact that BC is 7-1 ATS the past 3 seasons when they enter a game on a losing streak of 2 games or more. I know that the Redblacks have a lot of impressive ATS stats but they are a long-term 5-12 ATS as a road dog in a range of 3.5 to 7 points. Also, Ottawa is an ugly 1-6 SU in games against the West Division this season. The Lions are 4-2 this season and 14-8 the past 3 seasons combined (both of those records both SU and ATS) when they are facing teams from the East. It's more West dominance over the East here in a situation that is very favorable with the rested home team laying a small number here. 10* BC LIONS |