50* USC/COLO PAC-12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (OVER 62)

You can pencil in USC for a minimum of 30-points in this one and it wouldn’t surprise me if they eclipsed the 40-point mark. Colorado has given up at least 30 in every game. The only team giving up more passing yards/game than the 316 ypg the Buffaloes are allowing is New Mexico. Trojans Kedon Slovis had 377 against Stanford earlier this season and should go off here.

Also, I’m aware USC could be down their top 3 running backs. Starter Vavae Malepeai is out for the season, Stephen Carr and Markese Stepp are both questionable. Sometimes injuries can uncover a star and the Trojans are hoping that is the case for freshman Kenan Christon, who needed just 8 carries to rack up 103 yards and 2 scores. He’s got incredible speed and is a legit threat to go the distance any time he touches the ball.

Key here is I believe the Colorado offense will snap out of it’s recent funk and do their part to get us over the mark. Playing at home will definitely help and USC is dealing with all kinds of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They were without their top 3 corners and defensive end Christian Rector last week. They added safety Talanoe Hufanga and star defensive linemen Drake Jackson to the injury list. Give me the OVER 62!

50* REDSKINS/VIKINGS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 42) 

I know the Redskins offense is hard to trust, but it’s not asking a lot for these two to get to 43 with both these defenses playing on 3 days rest.

It’s not out of the question that Minnesota could eclipse this total on their own. Vikings are playing with a ton of confidence on the offensive side of the ball and who knows how much resistance the Redskins defense will put up.

You can’t read anything into Washington holding the 49ers to 9-points with those conditions and the only other teams they have held under 30 points this season are the Dolphins and Giants. I would be shocked if Minnesota had anything fewer than 30 points in this game.

I’m going to count on Washington getting to at least 14 and I think they could get a few more. Minnesota’s defense has been slipping of late and with the way the offense figures to be moving the ball, they might not be 100% locked in. They also might call off the dogs if they do get up big, as they got a big game at KC on deck.

OVER is 9-2 in the Redskins last 11 road games vs a team with a winning home record and 7-1 in their last 8 games played on a Thursday. OVER is also 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams in Minnesota. Take the OVER!

50* NFL NON-CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 47 in Sunday's showdown between the Raiders and Packers. I think this is going to be an ugly game the whole way. Green Bay is out star wide out Davante Adams and may be without both Allison and Valdes-Scantling. Problem is the Packers likely will need to be able to throw, as the Raiders have held 4 of their first 5 opponents under 100 yards rushing. They also have only allowed more than 255 passing once this season and that was to Mahomes and a healthy KC offense. 

Oakland's defense is better than people give them credit for, plus they should be extra sharp on that side coming off a bye. As for the Packers defense, it's really what has saved this team. Green Bay has really improved on that side of the ball and we have seen this Oakland offense struggle to get going when up against better defensive teams. I don't see this turning into a shootout. BET THE UNDER 47! 

50* CHIEFS/BRONCOS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 48.5)

It’s really hard for the books to set the number on the total high enough in these Thursday games. It’s hard for these players to bounce back from just 3-days of rest and it tends to have a bigger impact on the defenses ability to perform up to expectations.

The Chiefs offense welcomed back arguably their best weapon in wide out Tyreek Hill last week and he led the way with 5 catches for 80 yards and two scores. 

I think the Broncos will have a tough time here keeping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense in check. At the same time, there’s little reason to think the Kansas City defense is going to play well in this game. They are down nose tackle Xavier Williams, defensive linemen Chris Jones and corner Kendall Fuller.

As bad as the Broncos offense has been, this is a team they can have success against. I also think it’s important to note that Denver’s offense has faced a lot of good defenses. Outside of their two division games against Oakland and Los Angeles, they have had to go up against the Bears, Jaguars, Packers and Titans. All of those teams rank in the top half of the league in scoring defense.

You also got to look at the last three meetings in the series, all of which have come with Mahomes as the starter for KC. Each of those games saw at least 50 combined points.

OVER is 17-5 in the Chiefs last 22 road games, 7-2 in their last 9 off a game they failed to cover, 4-1 in their last 5 off a SU loss and 5-1 in their last 6 on Thursday. Take the OVER!

Bonus Prop Bet: Philip Lindsay OVER 72.5 (-110) Rushing Yards

50* GIANTS/PATRIOTS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 41) 

New York will be down their top two running backs, as well as wideout Sterling Shepard and tight end Evan Engram. Plus, we just saw Jones and the Giants do next to nothing against a good Minnesota defense and the Patriots defense has looked outstanding early on.

You just can’t expect teams to play up to their full potential on the defensive side of the ball when they only get 3 days of rest. Look at how good the Packers defense played in Week 1-3 (allowed a combined 35 points), how they struggled in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football (allowed 34 points) and then how good they played against Dallas last week.

I know Belichick has owned rookie quarterbacks and all that, but I think with Jones at quarterback they can put up at least 10-14 points and that’s on the low end of things.

At the same, I could see New England going over the total on their own. The Giants defense is awful. They let Kirk Cousins, who had been awful up to this point, throw for 306 yards and 2 scores while completing 82% of his passes. They are giving up 9.1 yards per pass play. They got no chance of slowing down Tom Brady and that Patriots offense. I think the Pats could play poorly and still score 30+ points.

The other thing is that with the Giants decimated at the running back position and them likely playing from behind early, New York is going to be forced to throw a lot. Add in Belichick’s ability to confuse rookie QB’s and it would shock me if the Giants didn’t have multiple turnovers in this game. That should lead to easy quick scores for NE. Give me the OVER 41!

50* NFC OVER/UNDER TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 47) 

I'm expecting an ugly low-scoring affair in Sunday's big matchup between the Cowboys and Packers. I think both of these teams are a lot better defensively than people realize and a bit limited on the offensive side of the ball. Cowboys offense was awful against New Orleans. They had just 45 rushing yards and 212 thru the air. Packers defense gave up a lot last week to the Eagles, but that was largely due to it being played on Thursday and the defensive guys just not having enough time to recover. Give me the UNDER 47! 

50* RAMS/SEAHAWKS TNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49) 

My early lean here would be to take the OVER 49. I just don’t know if Seattle is as good as we think and I’m not about to take LA in a pick’em on the road with 3 days of rest. I just think given how defenses have struggled to perform in these Thursday games, that’s where the value is.

Clearly there are some holes in the Rams defense, especially against the pass. Jameis Winston completed 28 of 41 for 385 yards and 4 scores last week. They let Chris Godwin haul in 12 catches for 172 yards and 2 scores. Russell Wilson only threw for 240 last week, but that’s because they were up big early. He had 406 the previous week against the Saints and 300 the week before at Pittsburgh. I think he’s going to have a big day throwing the ball.

As for the Rams offense, I really think that outburst by them was a big positive in the loss to Tampa last week. That was the first time all year they looked anything like the offense from 2018. Seattle’s defense has been decent, but they have also faced Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, Teddy Bridgewater and Kyler Murray.

You also have to take into account the recent meetings between these two have all been high-scoring. Both meetings last year saw at least 64 combined points.

Over is 10-3 in Seahawks last 13 games overall, including 8-2 in their last 10 at home vs a team with a winning road record. OVER 7-3 in the Rams last 10 after giving up 30 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 30 or more. Give me the OVER 49!

50* NCAAF BIG TEN TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 60) 

I think these two are going to fly OVER the total tonight. Penn State is coming off a very misleading 17-10 final against Pitt. That game was played in the rain and the sloppy field conditions really limited both offenses. That same Pitt defense gave up 34 points and over 400 yards of offense against UCF. 

Penn State is young on the offensive side of the ball, but they got big time talent across the board. Maryland's defense gave up 400 yards to Syracuse and 427 to Temple. Neither of those offenses are anything close to as good as what they will see from the Nittany Lions. 

At the same time, I like what I have seen from the Terps offensively in 2019. Joshua Jackson looks like a great fit (Va Tech transfer) and I think there are some definitely holes in the Penn State defense. While they held Buffalo to a mere 13 points, they gave up 429 total yards to the Buffaloes. Same thing against Pitt, they held the Panthers to 10 points despite allowing 394 yards (gave up 372 passing yards). I think both teams easily hit 30 points. Give me the OVER 60! 

50* EAGLES/PACKERS TNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 46) 

I'll take my chances with the OVER 46. Even though we haven’t seen a ton of scoring early on in these Thursday Night matchups, I still think there’s some value to be had on that side of the total in these games played on just 3 days of rest.

I think one of the big focal points coming into this game will be how good the Green Bay defense has played. I’m not about to say the Packers defense hasn’t been good, but I also don’t think it’s as good as some might think. Let’s not overlook the fact that the 3 quarterbacks Green Bay has faced are Mitch Trubisky, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco. I think we all would take Carson Wentz over any of those 3 starters.

Another thing to note is that while Green Bay has not allowed a lot of points, teams are running the ball effectively on them. Packers are allowing 131 ypg and 4.9 yards/carry against the run.

As for the Eagles defense, they have done an outstanding job against the run, but have had their problems against the pass. Philadelphia is only allowing 57 yards/game and 2.9 yards/carry against the run, but allowing 294 passing yards/game and 7.4 yards/pass attempt. I know Rodgers hasn’t been lighting it up, but I could see him going off in this prime time matchup.

OVER is 16-5 in the Packers last 21 vs a team with a losing record. OVER is also 35-17 in the Eagles last 52 off a straight up loss and 4-1 in their last 5 games played on Thursday.

OVER is 40-16 (71%) the last 10 seasons when you have a home team playing  in the month of September that has covered the spread in each of their last two games. Take the OVER!

50* NFL SAINTS/TEXANS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 52) 

I'll take my chances here with the OVER 52 in this one. This thing has shootout written all over it. Houston's defense won't be as strong without Clowney and there's just no slowing down Drew Brees and that Saints offense at home. Keep in mind Texans ranked 28th against the pass last year and got a lot of new faces on that side of the ball. Even bigger thing here is I think Houston's offense will be potent in 2019. DeShaun Watson quietly had a great 2018 season and that was behind an awful offensive line. In losing Clowney they got a big upgrade in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They used a 1st and 2nd round pick on offensive linemen. Saints defense ranked 29th vs the pass last year. Give me the OVER 52! 

50* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT OVER/UNDER KNOCKOUT (Over 56.5)

I'll gladly take my chances with the oVER 56.6 in Friday's matchup between Marshall and Boise State. Two talented young quarterbacks will be guiding the two offenses in this one. Thundering Herd send out sophomore Isaiah Green, who was the C-USA Freshman Player of the Year in 2018. Green is expected to make a big jump this year and just set a new career-high with 4 TD passes in their Week 1 win. Boise State has true freshman Hank Bachmeier looking to build on quite the first start. Bachmeier threw for 407 yards in a win at Florida State. The most impressive thing is they trusted him enough to let him air it out 51 times. Boise as a team ran 108 plays. I think there will be a lot of big plays in the passing game and for this to easily hit 60. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

50* MIAMI/FLORIDA NCAAF WEEK ZERO TOP PLAY (Under 47)

If I had to take a side, I would grab the points with the Hurricanes, but I feel the better value is with the UNDER 47 on the total.

Miami has without a doubt one of the best front seven’s in college football. They got 3 potential NFL linebackers who all turned down the NFL to return for their senior season. This defense led the country last year in tackles for loss.

One of the things that gets overlooked by the public when they look at the early season matchups is the talent returning/lost along the offensive line. Last year Florida had all 5 starters back on the offensive line. It’s a big reason why they had such a strong running back and Feleipe Franks was able to make a big jump. This year only one starter is back and I just don’t see them being able to handle that front of the Hurricanes.

It’s a very similar story on the other side of the ball. Florida has so much talent on the defensive side of the ball and should have one of the best defensive lines in the country. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is one of those guys that it really doesn’t matter the talent, he’s going to field a top tier defense. He’s got 8 starters back on that side of the ball.

Miami loses 3 starters on the offensive line, don’t have near the same talent at running back as they did a season ago and will be starting red-shirt freshman Jarren Williams at quarterback. Williams surprised everyone by beating out returning sophomore N’Kosi Pery and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell.

Not only will it be difficult for both teams to move the ball, you have to think that if/when they do get in the redzone they will have to end up settling for field goals.

UNDER is 20-7 in the Gators last 27 matchups with a team from the ACC and 7-1 in the Hurricanes last 8 neutral site contests. Give me the UNDER 47!

50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50) 

For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.

A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.

This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.

As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.

I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!

50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5) 

First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.

I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season. 

The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.

Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.

I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!

50* NFL -GB/SEA- VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 48) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER at 48. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play at their full potential.

We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.

This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.

The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.

For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.

While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3)  and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 48! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 51.5) 

Those that have been following from the start of the year, know how much I like the OVER in these Thursday night games. There's only been two games this season on Thursday with teams playing on short rest that have went under the total. One of those was last week, where who the hell knows what Gruden and the Raiders are doing. The other was a game that went under by just 1-point. Tonight we got two of the best offenses in the NFL, who both have top tier quarterbacks. I get how good Pittsburgh has been defensively and who the Panthers have on the defensive side of the ball, they just aren't going to be as good on just 3 days of rest, especially this late in the year. Not to mention the unfamiliarity these two teams have with this being a non-conference game and both teams coming off big division wins. Give me the OVER 51.5! 

50* RAIDERS/49ERS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 45) 

I’ve recommended the OVER in every single Thursday Night game since Week 2, which is when the teams first have to play these games on just 3-days rest. All but one of them have finished OVER the total and that one just missed out by a single point. Many of the ones that have hit haven’t even been close. I could definitely see this one between the 49ers and Raiders flying over the total. 

What’s the real incentive for either of these teams right now? Oakland is trading away their best players for future draft picks and the 49ers season was over as soon as Garoppolo went down. The best strategy for both teams is certainly to not win games, as they are much better off tanking for a better draft pick. I know that doesn’t happen in the NFL like it does in the NBA, but I think we are starting to see the league trend more that way. We are definitely seeing a lot more action at the trade deadline than we have in the past.

The road team is always at a disadvantage in these games and the Raiders defense couldn’t be playing much worse. Oakland is dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up 144.7 ypg. San Francisco is 21st against the pass (275.5 ypg) and 13th against the run (102.9 ypg), but keep in mind they have played Arizona’s anemic offense twice. They also might be without linebacker Reuben Foster, corner Richard Sherman and safety Jaquiski Tartt. All of which are questionable to play.

The other key here is that these two teams have some decent talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think both teams have a realistic shot here of scoring somewhere between 27-34 points and all we need is for something like 27-20 to cash a winning ticket.

Lastly, there’s a great system in play. The Over is 64-29 (69%) over the last 10 seasons in non-conference games, where one team (49ers) is off a division loss by 7-points or less. Give me the Over 45!

50* TEXAS TECH/TCU BIG 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 61) 

I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 61 in Thursday's Big 12 clash between Texas Tech and TCU. I just think the public can’t help themselves when it comes to playing the OVER in games involving Texas Tech. So far it’s paid off great, as the OVER is 4-1 in the Red Raiders’ first 5 games. However, I believe the books know that’s where the money is going to come in and have inflated this number quite a bit. 

Last year TCU went on the road and beat Texas Tech 27-3 for a combined score of just 30 points, which was well below the posted total for that matchup of 54. The year before that we saw a ridiculous total of 87.5 and the game ended up 27-24 for a total of just 51.

I think it’s going to be the same old story in this one. This high-powered Texas Tech offense will be up against one of the best defenses in the country. TCU ranks 35th against the run (125.6 ypg) and are 23rd vs the pass (178.0 ypg). Gary Patterson knows how to slow down this Red Raiders attack and he’s had nearly two weeks to get his defense prepared. I also think the game being played at home is huge for TCU’s defense, as they should be able to feed off the crowd.

We also don’t know who is going to be at quarterback for the Red Raiders. Week 1 starter McLane Carter is questionable with an ankle injury and his replacement, Alan Bowman is doubtful after suffering a collapsed lung against West Virginia. I believe they end up going with Jett Duffey, who replaced Bowman vs West Virginia. I think that's going to be a problem for Texas Tech. Duffey is a much bigger threat with his legs than his arm and has already thrown 3 interceptions on just 36 attempts.

TCU is also dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback, as Shawn Robinson hurt his non-throwing shoulder in the final minutes against Iowa State. Patterson has said he will be available, but may not start. Regardless of who starts, the Horned Frogs are built to run the football and one of the reasons they were able to hold Texas Tech to just 3-points last year in Lubbock, is they ran it so effectively. TCU had 204 rushing yards compared to just 85 passing (only attempted 17 passes). Patterson knows that the best way to slow down this Red Raiders offense is to keep them on the sidelines.

It’s also worth noting the UNDER is 21-6 in the Horned Frogs last 27 conference games, 11-4 in their last 15 overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. UNDER is also 4-1 in Texas Tech’s last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 vs conference foes. Give me the UNDER 61! 

50* SAINTS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 52.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 52.5 on the total. I think a lot of people are going to see that games involving the Saints this year have seen an average score of 64.4 ppg and the fact that these two combined for 65 points in last year’s meeting in New Orleans and just assume this thing is going to fly over the total.

Last year’s outcome was a bit of a fluke in terms of how many points were scored. The two teams were sitting on 40 midway through the 4th quarter. That was also late in the year with the Redskins dealing with some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball.

With Alex Smith replacing Kirk Cousins, the Redskins are much more balanced and conservative offense than the previous versions under Cousins who really relied on an aggressive passing attack. The numbers back this up, as Washington finished 28th in the league in rushing last year at 90.5 ypg. While it’s still really early, they are sitting 5th in the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 137.7 ypg. When your attack is built around the ground game, you typically see a lot longer possessions and it also keeps the defense fresh.

Speaking of the Redskins defense, Washington comes into this game ranked 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 3rd agains the pass (187.3 ypg). They held Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 21 points and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17, so there’s a good chance this defense continues to shine.

As far as the Saints offense is concerned, their numbers are inflated quite a bit due to the fact that they got to play an atrocious Bucs defense and a depleted Falcons defense. I also think they are going to focus even more on the running game now that Mark Ingram is back from his 4-game suspension. I also think those struggles in the redzone that popped up last week against the Giants could play a big role in this thing staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 52.5!

50* RAMS/VIKINGS VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49 in Thursday's NFL showdown between the Vikings and Rams. I know last week’s Thursday night game was a defensive battle between the Jets and Browns, but it still came within 1-point of going OVER the total. These Thursday night games are typically higher scoring. Not only do teams have just 3 days to prepare, but their bodies only get 3 days to recover. Defense is all about energy and effort and players just aren’t flying around the field like they would be on normal rest.

It also helps having one of the best offensive teams in the league playing. The Rams are making it look easy on the offensive side of the ball and as good as the Vikings are defensively, I don’t see them slowing down this attack, especially on the road. Not to mention, I think Los Angeles will be out to send a message against this Minnesota defense that held them to just 7 points last year. Reminds me a lot of their second meeting against the Seahawks last year. The Rams scored just 10-points in a loss at home to Seattle in Week 5, only to put up 42 on them in Week 15.

The Vikings defense will be without stud defensive end Everson Griffen and that's a huge loss for that stop unit against an elite offense. 

As for Minnesota’s offense against the Rams defense. As bad as the Vikings looked offensively in that game against the Bills, that’s as bad as you will see them play on that side of the ball, probably the rest of the year. We also saw Los Angeles not look nearly as good on defense in their step up in competition after facing the Raiders and Cardinals the first two weeks. Philip Rivers threw for 2 scores and Melvin Gordon Rushed for 80 yards on just 15 carries, as the Charges amassed 356 yards.

The Rams are also dealing with some big injuries right now. Both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib had to leave the game against the Chargers with ankle injuries. Both are out for this one and they will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. Kirk Cousins should be able to pick up big yards down the field and the Vikings will likely be forced to push the ball to try and keep pace with that Rams offense.

OVER is 30-15 in the Vikings last 45 games vs excellent passing teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass attempt and 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs elite teams that come in outscoring their opponents by 10+ points/game. Give me the OVER 49!

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39.5) 

I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 39.5 in Thursday's NFL action that has the Browns hosting the Jets.  I just feel the number here is a bit of an overreaction to what we just saw. The Jets managed just 12 points in a game with the Dolphins that saw a combined 32 points and went well below the posted total of 43. Cleveland managed just 18 in a game with the Saints that saw 39 points to go well UNDER the total of 51.

While both of these offenses do have their limitations, I think we could see both teams score into the 20s in this one. The biggest factor here is this being a Thursday night game. It’s extremely hard on these NFL players to turn around and play a game with just 3 days of rest and it’s a big reason why we see a lot of high-scoring games in these Thursday games. So much of defense is effort and these guys are playing at less than 100%. Not to mention they also have 3 fewer days to prepare for the opposition.

The other thing for me is that both offenses moved the ball better than their scoring output would suggest. Cleveland had 327 yards against the Saints and the Jets had 362 against the Dolphins.

You also have to look at these two defenses and how they been able to rack up turnovers early on. After forcing 6 turnovers against the Steelers in Week 1, the Browns had 2 more against the Saints. The Jets force 5 in Week 1 on the road against the Lions and 2 more on Sunday against Miami. While turnovers can be drive killers, they can also lead to short fields and quick scores. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw at least 1 defensive touchdown in this game.

We also have great OVER situations in play involving both teams. OVER is 31-9 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (Browns) off a road cover where they lost outright as a dog in the month of September. OVER is also 42-16 over the last 10 years when you have a team off an upset loss as a home favorite in September. Give me the OVER 39.5! 

50* NCAAF 'SEC' TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Ole Miss/Alabama OVER 70) 

I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 70 in Saturday's big SEC clash between Ole Miss and Alabama. For starters, these two teams have combined for at least 69 points in each of the last 3 meetings. Last time they played in Oxford, Alabama won 48-43 in a game that had a total of just 53. I know 70 points is a lot, but I just have a hard time seeing these two not reaching that mark.

This isn’t your typical Alabama offense that we have seen in the past under Nick Saban. Sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the most gifted signal-caller Saban has had in his decade-plus run at Alabama. His ability to shred opposing secondaries, makes this unit almost impossible to stop. You still can’t stop the Crimson Tide from running the football, but if you load the box Tagovailoa is going to make you pay.

There might be some SEC teams that can hold them in check to some degree, but I certainly don’t think one of those is Ole Miss. The Rebels gave up 34.6 ppg last year and don’t look all that improved in 2018. They gave up 486 yards to Texas Tech in their opener and the Red Raiders had to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and 5 of their top 6 pass catchers. They followed that up by allowing 41 points and 629 yards to an FCS school.

I think Alabama has a great shot here of scoring 50 or more points and that means we need just a little bit of help from the Rebels to push this over the total. I know the Crimson Tide defense has looked great in their first two games, but there’s a ton of talent on the Ole Miss offense. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has been excellent and they got playmakers at both running back and receiver. I think they can have some success against an inexperienced Alabama defense that only returned 3 starers and who will be playing their first true road game.

OVER is 11-1 in the Rebels last 12 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 against a conference opponent. OVER is also 5-0 in Alabama’s last 5 games played in the month of September. Take the OVER 70.

50* NFL WEEK 1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 48) 

I'll likely be on a lot of OVERs in Chiefs' games this year. I think Kansas City's offense is going to light the NFL on fire with Mahomes and all those playmakers at his disposal. The key here is that they are going to be pressed into scoring a lot, because the defense could be a weakness, especially with Eric Berry sidelined (doubtful). KC isn't the only team in this fight that will be missing an elite defensive player. Joey Bosa is not going to play for the Chargers, who are already without defensive tackle Corey Liuget, as he serves a 4-game suspension. I look for both teams to move it up and down the field with a lot of big plays through the air that lead to quick scores and this one flying over the total. Give me the OVER 48! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 64.5) 

Syracuse likes to push the tempo (Babers calls the plays and comes from Baylor’s uptempo attack under Art Briles) and should have their best offense in quite some time. Not only do the Orange get Dungey back, but they return their top 3 rushers, and 4 of 5 starters on the offensive line.

I think Western Michigan is going to have a really tough time slowing that offense down. The Broncos lose all 3 starters at linebacker (5 of 7 overall on the front 7) and star corner Darius Phillips.

Western Michigan is going to have no choice here but to try and go score for score with Syracuse and I think they are definitely capable of doing that. The Broncos have 8 starters back with most of their key pieces back and some talented guys ready to step in for those that departed. They put up 31 last year at USC in the opener last year and I think they eclipse that mark in this one.

The key here is Syracuse also lost a lot from their defense. The Orange lost their top 4 linebackers from last year and have just one career start on the roster at the position. In total, 5 of their top 7 tacklers are gone. Keep in mind this is a team that allowed 35.6 ppg and 485 ypg on the road last year and are just 4-14 in true road openers.

OVER is 10-2 in the Broncos last 12 home games and 12-2 in their last 14 at home in the first month of the season. Give me the OVER 64.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 48.5) 

These two teams played in Week 12 at Atlanta and combined for 54 points with Fitzpatrick under center for the Bucs. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense did a lot of the heavy lifting in that one, scoring 34 points on over 500 yards of offense. Since that game Tampa Bay has combined for 46 with the Packers with Hundley at QB and 45 at home against the Lions with a banged up Stafford. Even with the home field edge in a prime time game, I don't think this Bucs defense is going to have an answer for this Falcons offensive attack, which is going to be ready to roll after playing two of the better defenses in the league the last two weeks in the Vikings and Saints. It's also worth noting that Winston is back in the lineup for the Bucs and has looked good outside of some turnovers and I expect him to have a big game here. I think we could see both teams eclipse 30-points in this one. Give me the OVER 48.5! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48.5)

I think the value here is on the total and this one going under the mark of 48.5. These two teams just played two weeks ago in New England and combined for 52 points, but I think there's a big edge here for these two defenses having just played the opposing offense. Miami also is a much better defensive team at home and are catching a huge break with Gronkowski being suspended. Keep in mind it was the Patriots who did the heavy lifting in terms of the total in that game two weeks ago, as they had 35 points. The defense held Miami to just 17 points and I think we see the Dolphins struggle to eclipse that mark here. Give me the UNDER 48.5! 

50* NCAAF SEC CONF CHAMP GAME OF THE MONTH (Under 48.5)

As dominant as Auburn was in that first meeting against Georgia, I don’t love backing teams in rematch games, especially when the first win came at home. I also feel like the Bulldogs didn’t given the Tigers their full attention, as the intensity level just wasn’t where it needed to be. I don’t see that happening this time around and could honestly see this one going either way. If I had to take a side I would lean towards Georgia getting the points, but I think the best value in this matchup is the UNDER.

For starters, I don’t see Auburn putting up 40 points on the Bulldogs in the rematch. That was one of only two games all season where Georgia allowed more than 20 points. The only other exception being the 28-points they allowed to Missouri and that was a bit of a fluke. Missouri scored their first touchdown off a turnover where they got the ball on the Georgia 5-yard line, had two 63-yard touchdown passes, scored a garbage touchdown late with the Bulldogs up 47-21. Simply put, the game against Auburn the first time around was as bad as the defense could have played and I believe a big part of that was they showed up thinking it was going to be another easy win.

You also have to factor in that Georgia’s defense will be better prepared for Auburn’s offense the second time around. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Bulldogs hold the Tigers under 20 points.

As for the Georgia offense, I don’t know that it’s going to be a whole lot easier the second time around against this Auburn defense. The Tigers completely shutdown the Bulldogs running game, holding Georgia to just 46 yards on 32 attempts, which comes out to 1.4 yards/carry. At the same time, even if Georgia has more success running the ball, it doesn’t mean they are going to score a ton of points. Auburn just allowed 209 rushing yards to Alabama and held the Tide to just 14 points.

I just don’t see either offense being able to get going to to the point to push this over the mark. Keep in mind that we could have a 27-21 final score and that still wouldn’t be enough. Personally I think it’s going to be more like 22-17, which gives us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 48.5.!

50* STANFORD/USC VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 58)

These two teams combined for 66 points in the first meeting, easily surpassing the total of 55. Now we are getting a full 3-points more in the rematch in what's easily the biggest game of the season for both teams. I think the defenses have a huge edge when facing a team for a second time and I look for this to turn into more of a defensive battle. 

Stanford is certainly better on defense right now than they were early on in the season when these two teams played. It's also worth noting that while Stanford did get an extra week to prepare for that game, they were coming off that long trip to Australia. I'm pretty confident they aren't going to let USC run all over them like they did in the first meeting. Keep in mind in their last game they held a potent Notre Dame rushing attack to just 154 yards on 44 attempts, which comes out to a 3.5 yards/carry. 

On the flip side of this, I also think USC's defense is going to play extremely well here. While K.J. Costello has improved the Cardinal's passing attack, it's still not very good. Stanford finished the year 97th against the pass, averaging just 183.7 ypg. Most of their offense in the first meeting came from running back Bryce Love, who had 160 yards on 17 attempts. While Love can still be electric at times, he hasn't been the same guy since hurting his ankle a few weeks back. Not to mention, the Trojans have had two weeks to put together a game plan to make sure he's accounted for at all time. 

I don't see either team getting to 30 points in this game, as I think we see a final score here around 27-23, giving us plenty of breathing room. Give me the UNDER 58! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 48) 

I tend to lean towards lower-scoring games in a rivalry matchup like this and that's just the tip of the iceberg to why I like this one staying under 48 points. Western Michigan is down their starting quarterback and will be sending out a true freshmen for his first collegiate start. The Broncos were already a run first team and will be even more so here. I also think that allows the Chippewas defense to load the box early and force the freshman to beat him with his arm. On the flip side of this, Central Michigan has struggled to run the ball and don't figure to get it going here. They aren't anywhere close to as good offensively as they looked in their last game against Ball State and will struggle here just to get first downs. Give me the UNDER 48! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 49.5) 

The first meeting between these two division rivals saw a combined 47 points, but that was with both teams recording defensive touchdowns. There were also a few other scores that were aided by a short field off a turnover (6 turnovers in the game). Both teams know what to expect from the opponent and I see no reason why the total here is higher than the output they had in the first meeting. You get a lot of talk about these two offenses, but both are rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball. Add in the extra incentive to play well on MNF and this should have no problem staying under 50 points. Give me the UNDEr 49.5! 

50* CHIEFS/RAIDERS AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46) 

I wasn't surprised to see the Chiefs offense struggle last week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has had this teams number, shutting them down in the 3 meetings over the last 2 seasons. As bad as KC looked in that game, you can't forget just how good this offense was to start the season. I know they lost some wide outs, but all are guys they can replace and really weren't big factors in the offense to begin with. They still have their dynamic trio of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. I do expect the Raiders offense to come to life here, as this Chiefs defense is giving up 378 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. I also think defenses are at a much bigger disadvantage on these short weeks with such little time to prepare. Give me the OVER 46! 

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48)

I don't see a ton of offense taking place on Monday Night Football between the Colts and Titans. Tennessee will have Marcus Mariota back under center, but he's still not fully recovered from a hamstring injury that kept him out of last weeks game. I also think the Titans defense is a lot better than it's getting credit for. They really just had one bad game against the Texans that really skewed their defensive numbers. 

The Colts offense is still without Andrew Luck and until he's back under center Indianapolis will struggle to put point on the board. There's no denying that Jacoby Brissett is better than Scott Tolzien, but Brissett is still a backup at best in this league right now. He's only throwing for 182.2 ypg and has a mere 2 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions on the season. 

Another key factor here that can't get overlooked is that these are division rivals, who both desperately need to win this game in a wide open AFC South. These two teams know what the other likes to do and that usually leads to a lower-scoring game. Give me the UNDER here at 48! 

50* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH (UNDER 48.5) 

BYU's offense is dreadful. They haven’t scored more than 24 points in a game and have been held to 7 or fewer three times. They are 128th out of 130 FBS teams at just 14.0 ppg.

They aren’t catching a break here against a pissed off Bulldogs defense that had been playing extremely well before a couple of poor showings against Georgia and Auburn. Not to mention the fact that Dan Mullen and his staff have had two weeks to get their guys ready for this game. Mullen’s teams rarely come out flat in this spot.

I wouldn’t be shocked if they held BYU to under 10 points. In fact, I would be more surprised if the Cougars eclipsed that mark. That means Mississippi State can score 35 (7 touchdowns) and there’s a good chance the game stays under the mark.

The key here is that BYU actually has a decent defense. Most importantly, they matchup well with the Bulldogs. Mississippi State’s offense is built around their running game. They rank 17th in rushing (252.8 ypg) compared to 110th in passing (169.2 ypg). While the Cougars are just 78th against the run, giving up 167.2 ypg, they are only giving up 3.7 yards/carry against teams that average 4.3 yards/carry. They have simply played a lot of run-first teams, which has that run defense looking worse than it is.

The fact that BYU should be able to slow down the Bulldogs ground game should eliminate the big plays and force Mississippi State to eat up some clock when they do put together a scoring drive. As long as we don’t get a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns, this one should stay well under the mark set by the books. Give me the UNDER 48.5!

50* CLEMSON/SYRACUSE ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (UNDER 57.5) 

I'm taking the Tigers and Orange to go UNDER the mark set by the books. Clemson’s defense is special and it seems like the bigger the stage the better they play. The fact that Syracuse has recently played well on the road against the likes of LSU and NC State and this is a prime time game, I expect a big effort here from the Tigers stop unit. 

Syracuse has a couple of big time weapons at receiver, but I don't see them having enough time to throw. The Orange don’t have much of a running game, at least not one Clemson will have to respect. The Tigers and that dominant defensive line will be able to pin their ears back and get after the quarterback.

The big key here is Clemson’s starting quarterback Kelly Bryant hurt his ankle and left last week’s game against Wake Forest. He’s listed as probably and expected to play, but I expect Clemson to be very cautious with letting him run the ball, which is arguably his biggest strength. Instead they will likely just lean on their two talented backs and grind out a win here.

Syracuse has also been playing better on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Orange are holding opponents to just 357.7 ypg, which ranks 46th in the country. That’s a massive improvement over last year, when they allowed 501 ypg. The biggest improvement is their run defense. In 2016 they allowed 225 ypg and 5.4 yards/carry. This year they are allowing just 131.5 ypg and 3.8 yards/carry.

The UNDER is an impressive 14-4 in Syracuse’s last 18 games and 9-1 in their last 10 at home. UNDER is also 10-1 in the Tigers last 11 games played in a Dome. Give me the UNDER 57.5

50* TEXAS/ISU BIG 12 PLAY OF THE MONTH (OVER 63.5)

I know these two have struggled to put up points in the last two meetings, but I think we in store for a shootout tonight in Ames. Matt Campbell is in year two with ISU and has the offense ranked 42nd in the country, which is no surprise given what he was able to do at Toledo, which averaged 35 ppg and 461 ypg in his final year. He's got the passing attack working for the Cyclones, as they come in ranked 18th in the country. 

The game that really stands out to me as a sign that this one will see a lot of scoring is Iowa State's game against in-state rival Iowa. The two combined for 85 points with each scoring in the 40s. That's a very limited Iowa offense who could struggled to get first downs last week against Penn State. Texas has some playmakers on offense and are only going to keep getting better offensively under first year head coach Tom Herman. I'm willing to bet they come out sharp here off a bye. 

The key here is that I trust this Cyclones offense to do their part and push this one over the mark. Especially with this game being at home. Texas' defense is still a work in progress and we saw them give up 50 in their opener at home to Maryland. The defense was better against USC, but some of that was the Trojans not coming out sharp off a big road game against Stanford. I look for a lot of big plays and quick scores by both sides. Give me the OVER 63.5! 

50* RAMS/49ERS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39)

I believe a big reason for this low total is a result of how the 49ers first two games have gone. San Francisco’s first two games combined only add up to 47 points, as they have scored a mere 12-points in 2 games. The thing is, they have went up against two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seahawks and Panthers. Also two teams who are struggling offensively because of poor offensive line play. While the Rams are considered to have a good defense, I don’t think they are on the same level as the Seahawks and Panthers. They were great against the Colts, but I feel that was more a byproduct of Scott Tolzien. They weren’t nearly as good agains the Redskins. The stat that sticks out is Washington’s 229 rushing yards on 39 attempts (5.9 yards/carry). That’s good news for a 49ers offense that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. I also think they will be able to generate a few more big plays through the air in this one. As for the Rams offense, I like what I’m seeing in the first year under McVay. I really think it’s a unit that is only going to keep getting better, as they are still adjusting to a new scheme and several new pieces. Give me the OVER 39! 

40* LIONS/GIANTS MNF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 42.5) 

Two good quarterbacks here in Stafford and Manning, but I don't see either offense doing much in this one. The concerns with the Giants offense are even worse after watching how the Broncos picked apart the Cowboys defense. Even if Beckham Jr. suits up, I still think NY has a tough time moving the ball with the problems they have on the o-line and the inability to run the ball. On the flip side of this, I love this Giants defense and with the team desperate to avoid an 0-2 start and the game at home, I think they shutdown Stafford here. Keep in mind these two teams played late last year and combined for 23 points. Give me the UNDER 42.5! 

100* SEC FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Under 55.5)

50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48)

I look for both offenses to struggle to get going in this one and feel there's big time value here with the UNDER. Minnesota should have one of the best defenses in the league and are more than capable of shutting down Drew Brees and the Saints offense at home in a big time game like this. Most don't see New Orleans as a great defensive team, but they made a lot of progress on that side of the ball last year and I expect them to be even better in 2017. Minnesota's offense should be improved now that Bradford has had an offseason with the team, but it's far from an elite unit. I still see the Vikings as a team that wants to win by controlling the clock with the running game and relying on their defense to make plays. Give me the UNDER 48! 

50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 56.5) 

*Analysis Coming* 

50* POWER 5 NON CONF TOTAL OF THE YEAR (OVER 67.5)

For whatever reason the entire country is sleeping on Louisville and returning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson this season. I know the Cardinals struggled down the stretch, but I believe it was more of the team not being as focused after losing out on their playoff hopes than opposing defenses figuring them out. Petrino has won everywhere he's went and Jackson is only going to be better this year. I love the hire by Purdue with Jeff Brohm, which should pay off on the offensive side of the ball. However, the defense will remain a work in progress. Keep in mind were talking about a Boilermakers defense that allowed 40+ points in 6 games, that includes 50 to Maryland, 44 to Minnesota, 45 to Northwestern and 49 to Iowa. Louisville is on a whole different planet in terms of offensive explosiveness than those teams. I think they score at least 40 and potentially a lot more here, while Purdue adds more than enough to push us over the mark. Give me the OVER 67.5! 

50* CFB VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOTAL OF THE WEEK (Over 56.5)

I think the books have completely missed the mark here with this total. These two teams played last year and combined for 67 points in a 53-14 win by UCF. I think we see a similar scoring output here, giving us all kinds of breathing room. Scott Frost brought Oregon's uptempo attack with him to Orlando and if you recall the Ducks loved to poor it on teams. FIU should be improved under head coach Butch Davis, but will struggle to slow down UCF's offense which has 9 starters back and should get even better play out of sophomore QB McKenzie Milton, who flashed as a true freshman. FIU only averaged 24 ppg last year, but should see a huge uptick in their production under new OC Rich Skrosky. Give me the OVER 56.5! 

50* Clemson/Alabama Vegas Sharp Money Total Top Play (OVER 50.5)

I think everyone is falling into a similar trap to last year's title game, where there's so much talk about how dominant Alabama's defense is and Clemson coming off a dominant performance in their Semifinals matchup. Last year they beat Oklahoma 37-17, keeping an explosive Sooners offense in check. I just don't see this being a defensive battle. Clemson's defense has had their fair share of games where the defense struggled, giving up 36 to Louisville, 34 to Florida State and 42 to Pitt. Let's also not forget that Alabama has scored 30+ in 12 of their 14 games. The offense didn't look good against Washington, but Kiffin wasn't on his game. I just think there's too much talent on offense on both sides for this to stay under the total here. Give me the OVER 50.5!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 42.5)

I think we are going to see an offensive struggle tonight between the Giants and Eagles. New York's defense has been playing lights out of late and should have no problem keeping this slumping Philadelphia offense in check. New York's offense looks good on paper with Manning and Beckham, but they are only scoring 19.4 ppg on the season and just 17.3 ppg on the road. I know the Eagles are out of the playoff race, but I think they show up here at home in a prime time game on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the UNDER 42.5!

50* NFL -Panthers/Redskins Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 50.5)

I believe we are going to see a lot of scoring take place on Monday Night Football. Washington's got an explosive offense that comes in averaging 27.5 ppg at home. This is also an ideal matchup for the Redskins pass-happy attack. Washington has the 2nd ranked passing attack in the league and will be facing a Panthers defense that is 30th versus the pass. Carolina also isn't a good defensive team on the road, giving up 32.5 ppg. On the flip side of this, the Panthers have a strong offense and will be facing a very suspect Redskins defense that ranks 22nd against the run and 24th against he pass. Give me the OVER 50.5!

50* AFC North Total of the Month (Under 40.5)

This has all the makings of a low-scoring AFC North defensive showdown. The Ravens only come in scoring 19.9 ppg and will struggle to score here against the Bengals. Cincinnati's season is on the line here and I expect an all out effort here from the defense, as the know they have to play well for them to have a chance in this game. That's because the offense is going to have a tough time moving the ball. Cincinnati will be without star wide out A.J. Green, who is the one player this offense couldn't afford to lose and it's clear Dalton is not the same QB without him on the field. They also lost running back Giovani Bernard, who has been a big weapon for Dalton out of the backfield when he's under pressure. Even with those two, this offense figured to be in for a long day, as they are going up against an elite Ravens defense. Give me the UNDER 40.5!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 48) 

I just think we are getting too much value here to pass up on the UNDER with the total sitting at 48. The Colts are going to struggle to do much of anything offensively without Luck under center. Their only chance of keeping this game competitive is to try and get something going in the running game to control the time possession and keep Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense off the field. I also don't think people realize that Pittsburgh's offense isn't nearly as effective on the road as it is at home. The Steelers are only averaging 18.8 ppg on the road this season. The Colts defense knows they have to play well here and playing at home in a prime time game should have them a notch or two better than what we would normally see on a given Sunday. Give me the UNDER 48!

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 54.5)

I believe we have a perfect recipe for a high-scoring game here, as we get two of the better quarterbacks in the league in Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers and neither has much of a running game they can rely on. Both come in throwing it about 62% of the time. That's going to keep the clock from running constantly and should lead to some big plays and quick scores. No real need to discuss how bad the Colts defense is, as it's clear they don't have the talent on that side of the ball and it's almost a given they struggle on the road, as they come in giving up 28.7 ppg and over 400 ypg. The key here is the Packers defense is built more for stopping the run and has struggled against the pass. They are giving up a 63% completion rate and 7.4 yards per pass attempt. They also remain thin in the secondary, corners Sam Shields and Damarious Randall are both out, while corners Quinten Rollins, and Demetri Goodson are both questionable. Let's also not forget that Luck and the Colts just got a big weapon back last week in Donte Moncrief. Give me the OVER 54.5!

50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 76)

Anytime Cal is involved in a game, you have to be thinking OVER. They are 8th in the country in total offense, with the 4th ranked passing attack at (365.6 ypg). They are also 124th in total defense. They are averaging 41.2 ppg and giving up 41.7 ppg. They also play at a fast tempo, so there's a lot of possessions for both sides. Washington has a good defense, which I think is keeping this total lower than it should be. The way Cal plays, it can go one of two ways here in my opinion. We know Washington is going to score against this Cal defense, they are even better offensively than Cal at 46.1 ppg and put up 70 on a similarly bad Oregon defense earlier this year. Cal's offense has success and scores with them or they struggle, get down big, and put up garbage points late. I think it's the former. This is the best offense Washington has seen all season, by far the best quarterback they have faced and the defense could be a step slow here after a very physical game last week at Utah. Give me the OVER 76! 

50* NCAAF AAC Total of the Month (Over 73) 

I'm expecting a shootout in Memphis this Saturday, as the Tigers take on the Golden Hurricane. The only team that's been able to contain Tulsa's offense this season is Ohio State, where they managed just 3-points and 189 yards of total offense. The Hurricane have scored at least 31 in every other game and 40+ in 5 of the 6 not against Ohio State. If you take out the game against the Buckeyes, Tulsa is averaging 45.8 ppg and 534.3 ypg. Memphis' defense isn't as good as the 22.6 ppg average they have. They are allowing 39.0 ppg to teams not named SE Missouri St, Kansas, Bowling Green and Tulane. Not only should Tulsa put up a big number, but the Tigers figure to do their fair share of scoring as well. The Golden Hurricane have allowed 38+ points in 4 games and the only teams they have held in check are San Jose St, North Carolina A&T and Tulane. Memphis has scored at least 24 in every game and are averaging 38.4 ppg. Give me the OVER 73! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 44) 

I believe we are going to see a sloppy low-scoring game on Thursday Night Football, as the Titans host the Jaguars. Both of these offenses are struggling to consistently put up points. Tennessee comes into this game 20.9 ppg and Jacksonville is even worse at 19.5 ppg. What a lot of people don't realize with these two teams is they are solid on the defensive side of the ball. The Titans are 10th in total defense and the Jaguars are 9th. Unless we get a lot of turnovers and short fields, I think this one stays well under the mark. Note that 4 of the last 5 in the series have seen a combined score of 36 or less. Give me the UNDER 44! 

50* MNF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 40.5) 

I think both of these offenses are going to have a horrible time trying to sustain drives and finish them off with points. The Broncos are going to make life absolutely miserable for Brock Osweiler and I expect Houston to try and counter that by running Lamar Miller as much as possible. As for the Denver offense, I think they too could find it hard here. The Broncos could be without both starting offensive tackles and without those two the offensive line is in really bad shape. Even if they play, I think both could struggle to contain Houston's solid pass rushing duo of Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney. Like the Texans, Denver is going to look to run the ball early and often. It won't quite be the defensive battle that we saw last night with Seattle and Arizona, but I don't think it's too far behind. Give me the UNDER 40.5! 

50* SNF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 44)

I'm expecting an old-school defensive battle on Sunday Night Football between the Seahawks and Cardinals. This is a huge game for both teams. Seattle knows they can take complete control of the NFC West with a win here and winning the division and getting home field in the playoffs is critical for this team. Arizona on the other hand has to have this game to keep their hopes alive of defending as division champs. Both offenses have been hit or miss this season, but defensively both have been sharp. Seattle is ranked No. 1 in total defense, ranking in the top 5 against both the run and the pass. Arizona is 4th in total defense. While they are 17th against the run, they come in at No. 3 against the pass, which is key here against Seattle. A lot of people think the Seahawks are more of a run team than they are. Seattle is 24th in rushing compared to 9th in passing, so this is clearly a good matchup for the Cardinals. Give me the UNDER 44! 

50* NCAAF PAC-12 Total of the Month (OVER 63.5)

I'm expecting a shootout in Tempe Saturday night. I believe we are seeing a much lower total than we should be, due to Washington State's defense holding Stanford to just 16 points and UCLA to only 21 in their last 2 games. The Cardinal offense is limited and are more of a run-first team, while the Bruins were minus their star quarterback Josh Rosen. Arizona State was just held to 16 points at Colorado, but they clearly didn't show up for that game and the Buffaloes have a better defense than people realize. With this game being played at Arizona State, I look for the Sun Devils offense to put up a big number. At the same time, I think Arizona State's defense will be exposed by the Cougars. Both these teams like to play at a fast pace and would much rather attack defenses through the air than on the ground. That's going to lead to some extra possessions for both sides and should have this one finishing closer to 75 than 65. Give me the OVER 63! 

50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 53) 

This is basically an elimination game in the Coastal, plus both are coming off a bad loss in their last game. I don't think there's any doubt that we are going to get the very best both teams have to offer. I believe that it's going to result in a low-scoring defensive battle. Both of these teams are legit on the defensive side of the ball. Miami hasn't allowed more than 21 points all season and have played FSU and UNC. I know the Hokies just allowed 31 last week at Syracuse, but prior to that they had allowed 20 points in their previous 3 games combined. It's also worth pointing out that Miami's offense isn't great and has struggled against some pretty average defenses in their last two games in the Seminoles and Tar Heels. Hokies should also get a boost defensively playing at home in a nationally televised weekday game. UNDER is 9-2 in Hokies last 11 conference games and 16-5 in Miami's last 21 when playing on Thursday. Give me the UNDER 53! 

50* NFL *AFC TOTAL OF THE YEAR* (Over 47.5) 

I believe we just got a glimpse of what this Patriots offense is capable of doing in last week's game against the Browns. Had it not been the Browns, who aren't believed to be a good defensive team, this total would be much higher. Last time these two teams played, Brady and the Patriots put up 43 points on the Bengals back in 2014 and Cincinnati's defense is no where near as talented right now as it was two years ago. I know Cincinnati's offense hasn't been great, but I think they are going to have some success moving the ball here. New England's defense has put up solid numbers, but it's helped that 4 of their 5 games have come against the Dolphins, Texans, Bills and Browns. The Bengals have the most talented offense they have faced since the Cardinals in Week 1 and they allowed 21 in that game. I think this one easily gets past 50 points. Give me the OVER 47.5! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 44) 

My money is on the UNDER in tonight's AFC West showdown between the Chargers and Broncos. It's no secret that Denver's defense is legit and we know they are going to show up after a not so great showing last week at home against the Falcons. The Chargers defense hasn't looked great, but I think playing at home in this spot is going to bring out the best of them. I also think Denver's offense is a bit limited. Even more so tonight, without head coach Gary Kubiak, who is an excellent playcaller. The offensive line has also not been great of late and starting quarterback Trevor Siemian is playing hurt. You also have to take into account the last two meetings in San Diego have been low-scoring, both games finishing with 32 or less points. UNDER is also 10-2 in the Chargers last 12 home games after the first month of the season and 16-4 in their last 20 after gaining 350 or more passing yards in their previous game. Take the UNDER 44! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 45.5) 

The fact that Cam Newton isn't playing is going to have a lot of people looking to take the UNDER in this game, but I'm focusing more on what these two defenses will look like. Carolina let one of their starting corners go and the other is hurt. Jameis Winston and his weapons in the passing game are going to be able to pick up some big plays down the field. As for Tampa Bay's defense they are expected to be without both starting defensive tackles Gerald McCoy and Clinton McDonald and potentially starting defensive end Robert Ayers (questionable). Keep in mind they are already minus three other defensive ends who were expected to contribute in Noah Spence, George Johnson and Jacquies Smith. Not only do I think both offenses have success here, but I think we also get a few turnovers that lead to quick scores and push this past the mark set by the books. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

50* NCAAF Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 54) 

I think the books have completely missed the mark here on the total in tonight's Sun Belt game between Georgia Southern and Arkansas State. The Eagles come in allowing just 19.7 ppg and the Red Wolves are averaging just 16.7 ppg, which is a big part of why we are seeing such a low total. However, Georgia Southern's defensive numbers are greatly aided by a soft schedule. The 4 teams they are playing are only averaging 23.2 ppg. Arkansas State on the other hand has played some pretty good defenses, as their opponents are only giving up 21.1 ppg. I think both offenses are going to thrive in this game. The Red Wolves do have some serious problems on defense and are going to struggle against a talented Eagles offense. As for the Arkansas State offense, they recently switched to Justice Hansen at quarterback, who has shown the ability to throw the ball deep. That's how you attack this Georgia Southern defense and it should lead to some big plays and more importantly quick scores. Give me the OVER 54! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 43) 

This game has a defense battle written all over it. Minnesota is 3-0 due in large part to the play of their defense. They come in averaging 21.3 ppg, but part of that is a result of some defensive scores. Offensively they are averaging just 265 yards/play. With that limited offense and great defense, Minnesota wants to grind out possessions and limit the opponents chances. The Giants defense didn't perform well last week against Washington, high-powered passing attack, but in their two previous games played really well. I see New York's stop unit playing really well against the limited Vikings offense. As long we don't get a bunch of turnovers that lead to immediate scores, I just don't see enough offense here to eclipse this total. Give me the UNDER 43! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Under 45) 

Two desperate teams take the field on Thursday, as the Bengals and Dolphins are both going to play their hearts out to avoid starting the season 1-3. Both teams have plenty of reason to still believe they can turn things around after their 1-2 starts. Miami's two losses have come against the Seahawks and Patriots, while Cincinnati's two defeats have come to Pittsburgh and Denver. Bengals defense hasn't been great the first 3 weeks, but they get back the heart and soul of their defense in linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who was suspended the first 3 games. We also have both teams missing key players offensively. Cincinnati remains without tight end Tyler Eifert. Miami is minus starting running back Arian Foster and tight end Jordan Cameron, not mention are banged up on the offensive line. Bengals offensive line has also struggled early on, as they are only averaging 82 ypg on the ground and have seen Dalton sacked 12 times in 3 games. Miami comes in having recorded 9 sacks in 3 games, which is tied for 7th in the league. Give me the UNDER 45! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Over 53.5) 

I'm expecting a lot of fireworks offensively for both teams, which should have this one going well over the total here. Both of these teams are expected to finish in the Top 10 in total offense. Atlanta is definitely on their way, as they are averaging 29.5 ppg and 451 ypg over their first two contests. They go up against a Saints defense that isn't anything to write home about. New Orleans did manage to score just 13 points last week at the Giants, but that's just what they do. The Saints score a ton of points at home and struggle to generate offense on the road. They should have no problem getting the offense going, as the Falcons are getting torched through the air so far this season, playing right into the hands of the Saints high-powered passing attack. Atlanta is giving up 7.4 yards/pass attempt and allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 73.1% of their attempts. Give me the OVER 53.5! 

50* NCAAF Vegas Insider Top Play (Louisville/Syracuse OVER 68)

I don't hate Syracuse and the points, but I feel the real value here is on the total and it going over the mark of 68. Both of these teams have strong quarterbacks, playmakers at the skill positions and like to play at a fast pace. I know the opener was against Charlotte, but not many teams could hang 56 points in the 1st half against, let alone score that many in an entire game. Keep in mind that was a Charlotte team that had 16 returning starters and in the 4th year under head coach Brad Lambert. I believe Louisville is one of the best offensive teams in the country and are going to have no problem moving the ball against the Orange. Let's not forget they played late last season and the Cardinals scored 41 points on 579 yards of offense. That was with Syracuse playing a grind it out style offensively. That's no longer the case under new head coach Dino Babers, who is bringing his uptempo offense that he learned at Baylor to the Orange. Syracuse's new style offensively is going to give Louisville some problems, especially with this being played at the Carrier Dome, plus it's going to create more possessions for the Cardinals offense. I think these two eclipse 70 without much problem. Give me the OVER 68! 

50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Panthers/Broncos Under 41.5) 

These two teams combined for just 34 points when they faced off in last year's Super Bowl and I think they were fortunate to get there. Denver's 24-points came primarily off turnovers. They had a fumbled returned for a touchdown and another fumble recovery that resulted in a 3 play 4-yard drive (2-pt conversion. When forced to actually put a drive together the Broncos managed just two field goals. Carolina's offense only put up 10 points, as they simply had no answer for Denver's pass rush. Given that the Panthers didn't do anything to improve the tackle position, I don't see that being any different in this one. If anything it's going to be even harder with the game being played in Denver. I see a low-scoring defensive battle that comes down to the wire. Give me the UNDER 41.5! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Panthers/Cardinals UNDER 47.5) 

So much attention is being paid to Cam Newtown and Carson Palmer with these two high-powered offenses, but I believe it will be the defenses that take over this game. Keep in mind these are two of the best defenses the NFL has to offer. Arizona ranks 7th in scoring defense (19.6 ppg) and 5th in total defense (321.7) ypg). Carolina is 6th in scoring defense (19.3 ppg) and 6th in total defense (322.9 ypg). The pressure of knowing that a trip to the Super Bowl is on the line will likely have both offenses a bit jittery early in this one and keep in mind that conditions are going to be less than ideal. UNDER is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 against a team with a winning record and 3-1-1 in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. Give me the UNDER 47.5! 

50* NCAAF --Guaranteed Gridiron Top Play-- (Under 50.5)

I don't see a ton of value with the spread, but I do think we are seeing an inflated total that presents some great value on the UNDER. Both of these teams took advantage of great matchups in the semifinals. Oklahoma couldn't stop Clemson's ground attack and Alabama took advantage of a weak Michigan State secondary. That clearly won't be the case in this matchup and I look for both offenses to struggle to sustain drives and finish off the ones they do put together with touchdowns. UNDER is 33-14 in Crimson Tide's last 57 against strong rushing teams that average 200+ yards/game on the ground and 16-6 in Clemson's last 22 against strong run defenses that allow 2.75 or less yards/carry. Give me the UNDER 50.5! 

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Total Top Play-- (OVER 45.5)

Arizona has one of the most well-rounded offenses in the NFL. The Cardinals lead the league in both total offense (419.5 ypg) and scoring offense (31.8 ppg). I look for Arizona to put up a big number here against a Vikings defense that has been hit hard with injuries. Minnesota won't have starting defensive tackle Linval Joseph, linebacker Anthony Barr and safeties Harrison Smith and Antone Exum. They also are without backup safety Andrew Sendejo and backup safety Robert Blanton is questionable. Inexperience in the defensive backfield is going to result in a lot of big plays for Arizona and I see no reason why they don't eclipse their season average in this one. Vikings should be able to score enough (may not be till garbage time) to push this well over the mark. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

50* NCAAF --PAC-12 Total of the Year-- (Over 69.5)

Oregon won't be playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game and aren't a factor for the college football playoff, but I strongly believe that this is one of the best teams in the country right now. Since Adams has returned to the lineup at full strength, Oregon's offense has looked like the offense we have grown so accustomed to seeing the previous years. They put up 65 on Arizona State, 44 on Cal, 38 on Stanford and 48 last week against USC. All 4 of those games finished with a combined score of at least 72 points. Last week Oregon State gave up 52 points at home to Washington, who is one of the more limited offensive teams in the Pac-12 the previous week they gave up 54 to Cal and the week prior 41 at home to UCLA. I'm confident the Ducks will eclipse 50 points in this game and wouldn't be shocked if they scored well into the 60's. The key here is that while Oregon's offense is dynamic and poised for a huge game, the Ducks defense is average at best. Given this being a rivalry game and Oregon State having nothing to lose at 2-9, I look for the Beavers to pull out all the tricks they can think of to try and put points on the scoreboard. This one should fly over the total. Give me the OVER 69.5! 

50* NFL --SNF Total of the Month-- (UNDER 44.5)

I don't see a whole lot of value here with the spread, but I absolutely love the value we are getting with this total set at 44.5. I think there's a ton of value here with the UNDER. While Seattle's offense has struggled, their defense has been very good since Kam Chancellor returned to the lineup. I expect the Seahawks stop unit to deliver a big time performance here at home in a nationally televised game. At the same time, I don't think Seattle's offense snaps out of their funk against the Cardinals. These two division rivals have a history of low-scoring games when playing in Seattle. In fact, 6 of the last 7 have gone UNDER the total and the last two have seen combined scores of 27 and 22 points. It only adds value here that both teams are coming off a bye. Give me the UNDER 44.5! 

50* NCAAF --Gridiron Total Top Play-- (Under 52.5)

I think we are going to see a low scoring game here between the Hokies and Yellow Jackets. Georgia Tech is fighting for their season, as they have to win out make a bowl, while Virginia Tech also comes in highly motivated knowing that this is Beamer's last run. While the Hokies are familiar with the Yellow Jackets and their triple-option attack, they get the added bonus here of coming off their bye. UNDER is 21-8 in Georgia Tech's last 29 games played on Thursday and 13-4 in their last 17 home games with a total of 52.5 to 56 points. UNDER is also 26-13 in Virginia Tech's last 39 with a line of +3 to -3 and 6-0 in their last 6 conference road games. Give me the UNDER 52.5! 

50* NFL --MNF Gridiron Total Top Play-- (UNDER 49.5)

This would be an okay total if both teams were coming into this game at 100%, but that's not the case at all. Each is missing star players. Chicago will be without running back Matt Forte, who is not only their leading rusher but a huge part of the passing game. San Diego will be without wide out Keenan Allen, who has been Rivers' go-to guy. I look for these injuries to play a big role in the red zone, as I look for both teams to have to settle for field goals. Give me the UNDER 49.5! 

50* NCAAF --Guaranteed Gridiron Total Top Play-- (Over 51)

This all comes down to the situation. Temple is well known for their defense, but we aren't going to see their best effort on that side of the ball in this spot. The Owls put everything they had into last week's game against Notre Dame and simply aren't going to be able to bounce back with that same kind of effort on the road against a SMU team that likes to play fast. If we simply get 20 points here from the Mustangs at home, we would need just 32 from Temple to cash the over. Considering SMU has allowed at least 38 in 6 straight, that should be a problem. Give me the OVER 51! 

50* NFL --Browns/Bengals Total Crusher-- (Over 45.5)

The perception here is the Browns won't be able to score with Manziel at quarterback, but I don't think there's as big a drop off from McCown to Manziel as most people think. I look for Cleveland to provide their fair share of points in this one and that should have this game flying over the total. Cincinnati's offense is loaded with weapons at the skill positions and the Browns are awful defensively. They can't stop the run and their secondary is depleted with injuries to corner Joe Haden and safety Donte Whitner. It's not out of the question the Bengals cover this total on their own. Give me the OVER 45.5! 

50* NFL --NFC Total of the Month-- (Over 49)

I look for both offenses to have a lot of success in this one, as we have two of the better quarterbacks in the league going up against two defenses that are not playing well inside the perfect conditions of the Superdome. The Giants are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 66.7% of their passes, which is a nightmare scenario against Drew Brees and the Saints are giving up 4.9 yards/carry and 7.9 yards/pass attempt. Over is 6-2 in the Giants last 8 against the NFC, 6-2-1 in the Saints last 9 vs a team with a winning record and 3-0 in the last 3 meetings with the lowest combined score during this stretch being 73 points. Give me the OVER 49! 

50* NCAAF --Gridiron Total of the Month-- (UNDER 51)

This may seem like a low total given Clemson just hung 58 on the road last week at Miami, but I think this game has a defensive battle written all over it. Clemson is 4th in the country in total defense and NC State is 3rd. Wolfpack offensively were held to 13 points in their only two games against a legit opponent in Louisville and Virginia Tech, so don't expect much from them. The key is I think their defense will keep Watson and the Tigers in check. We saw Clemson only score 20 on the road against a good Louisville defense and NC State seems to play above their potential on this side of the ball when hosting a ranked opponent. Give me the UNDER 51! 

50* NCAAF --Guaranteed Gridiron Total Top Play-- (Under 55)

First place in the ACC Coastal division will be up for grabs (Pitt currently sits at 4-0 in ACC with Duke and UNC both at 3-0) tonight when the Tar Heels visit the No. 23 ranked Panthers. I don't see much value in the line at basically a pick'em, but I do think we are seeing an inflated total based on previous matchups. No surprise that these two teams have been great defensively in 2015. Pitt brought in former Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Nartduzzi as their new head coach, while the Tar Heels landed Gene Chizek as their new defensive coordinator. The Panthers come in ranked 16th in total defense (308.3 ypg) and North Carolina is 36th (349.9 ypg). The impressive thing with Pitt's defensive numbers is they have played 5 of their first 7 on the road. Their defense should be even better at home, especially in this big time environment of a nationally televised game. The Tar Heels on the other hand have allowed 17 or less points in all but one game, the exception being against Georgia Tech and their triple-option attack. Both offenses like to run the football and I see this one being a defensive battle all the way. Give me the UNDER 55! 

50* NFL --MNF Over/Under Total Crusher-- (OVER 48.5)

I don't think the books have set the mark high enough for this matchup. The Ravens come into this one with the 9th ranked offense and are 10th in the league in passing at 258.3 ypg. Arizona has the 4th ranked offense and 6th ranked passing attack at 284.2 ypg. Both teams will be looking to throw the ball early and often, which should lead to a lot of big plays and quick scoring drives. It also figures to lead some turnovers, which should also lead to some quick scores. Baltimore's defense has allowed at least 25 or more points in 4 of their last 5, while Arizona has scored 40+ points 3 times this season and are averaging 33.3 ppg at home. OVER is 9-3-1 in Ravens last 13 road games against a team with a winning home record and 4-1 in the Cardinals last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Give me the OVER 48.5!

50* NFL --NFC East Total of the Month-- (UNDER 46)

These two teams combined for 53 points in the Cowboys 27-26 miracle win at home in Week 1. The total for that game was 52 and now we see these two teams facing off in the rematch at New York with a total of 46. I don't believe 6 points is a big enough adjustment, given what Dallas has lost offensively and what they have gained defensively. At the same time, we can expect max effort here from the Giants defense coming off that ugly loss to Philadelphia and wanting revenge from the game they gave away at AT&T Stadium earlier this year. You also have to factor in playing outdoors compared to playing in the dome in Dallas. I think these two teams will be lucky to score 20 points a piece. Give me the UNDER 46!

50* NCAAF --ACC Total of the Month-- (Over 55)

The books have set a low total here due to the perception that Clemson has a dominant defense. While I'm not saying the Tigers aren't a good defensive team, they have benefited from a soft schedule in terms of teams they have had to face who can spread you out and beat you with both the run and the pass. The only legit offense they have faced is Notre Dame and they gave up 437 yards, including 321 through the air. Miami has a ton of speed and one of the more underrated quarterbacks in the country in Kaaya. At the same time, the Hurricanes aren't going to offer up much resistance defensively. I think both teams score into the 30's here. Give me the OVER 55!

50* NFL --Guaranteed Gridiron Total Annihilator-- (Under 42)

In previous seasons this matchup would have me looking to back the under, but these are not the same two dominant defenses from years past. The 49ers are clearly not the same with all the players they lost in the offseason, to go along with the departure of head coach Jim Harbaugh. Seattle's still got a lot of the same players on defense, but I think they are really missing the guidance of former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn. We have already seen the 49ers give up 30+ points in 3 games this season and Seattle's offense is certainly capable of putting up a big number here. The Seahawks defense just allowed 27 points at home to the Panthers and aren't typically as strong on this side of the ball on the road. I also expect Seattle to take advantage of Kaepernick's poor decision making and create some turnovers that lead to quick scores. I see this being a 27-17 type of game with the potential to creep up towards 50. Give me the OVER 42!

50* NFL -MNF Gridiron Top Play-- (Under 46)

The Steelers are trying to make do offensively with Michael Vick right now. While he's capable of keeping Pittsburgh in the playoff hunt, this will not be the same explosive high-powered offense that it was with Roethlisberger. The Steelers are going to rely more on their running game and defense to win games until Big Ben is back and have been playing much better defensively than they get credit for. They should have no problem keeping a injury-deplete San Diego offense in check. This is simply too many points given the circumstances both offenses are facing. Give me the Under 46!

50* NCAAF --Over/Under Total of the Month-- (Navy/ND Over 56)

Notre Dame laid it all on the line last week against Clemson and simply won't have the same energy when they take the field against Navy. Similar to what we saw with them allowing 27 points to UMass after that big game against Georgia Tech. Navy has proven they can move the ball against the Irish, scoring at least 34 points each of the last 2 years. Midshipmen look to be even strong offensively in 2015, which isn't a big surprise with senior quarterback Keenan Reynolds calling the shots. While I don't expect a great showing from the defense, the offense will be highly motivated to put up points after scoring only 22 last week against Clemson when they should have had a lot more. Notre Dame had 437 yards of total offense, but turned it over 4 times (only had 3 turnovers first 4 games combined). Like each of the last two years, I expect both offenses to score into the 30's, making this an easy play for me. Give me the OVER 56!

50* NFL --Colts/Texans Total No Brainer-- (Over 40.5)

It's been made official that Luck will not be playing against the Texans and as a result the total has dropped 3-points, I believe it's created some great value here on the OVER, as I still think the Colts offense will be able to move the ball against the Texans. Houston's defense hasn't been very good and Indy has a savy veteran backup in Matt Hasselbeck, who showed he still has something left in the tank. Hasselbeck went 30 of 47 for 282 yards against the Jaguars. Houston's offense hasn't been great to start the year, but that's a direct result of the injury to star running back Arian Foster. He returned last week and should get a much bigger workload here. Colts defense is decimated with injuries and just gave up 431 yards last week to a below average Jacksonville offense. These two teams also have a history of high-scoring games when they face off in Houston, with each of the last 10 meetings seeing at least 41 points. Give me the OVER 40.5!

50* --NFL Total of the Month-- (Over 43)

The perception here is that these are two dominant defensive teams, which has created some exceptional value here with total at just 43 points. Arizona's 3-0 start is more a result of their offense than their defense at the same time, I don't think the Rams are as strong defensively as it looks on paper. St Louis has a lot of talent up front, but the secondary isn't great. Carson Palmer will be able to expose the Rams secondary and should be able to put up at least 27 points here. I believe the Rams can give us at least 17 if not more, as I see there offense only improving with Gurley getting more and more carries. These two combined for 45 in Arizona last year and the OVER is 11-2 in Cardinals last 13 after scoring 25 or more in 3 straight games. Give me the OVER 43!

50* NFL ---Total of the Month--- (Over 45.5)

I think we are seeing some great value here with this total at 45.5 points, largely due to both of these offenses struggling last week. The Colts scored just 7 points at home against the Jets, while the Titans were held to a mere 14-points at Cleveland. Indianapolis has too much talent offensively and too good of a quarterback to not get this turned around. I believe their struggles were largely due to playing 2 really good defenses in Buffalo and New York. The Titans will be playing at home for the first time this season and I look for Mariota to have a big day here against a banged up Colts secondary and will likely have to throw early and often to keep pace with Luck and the Colts. Give me the Over 45.5!

50* NCAAF --Sharp Money Total Dominator-- (Under 47.5)

This total has been set too high for this matchup. Boston College features about as run heavy of an offense you will find that's not based strictly off the triple-option. The Eagles have attempted 49, 40 and 43 rush attempts in their first 3 games and totaled just 347 passing yards in their first 3 games combined. N. Illinois is only giving up 3.5 yards/carry against teams averaging 4.1, so I expect them to at worst make BC use a lot of plays to sustain a drive and put points on the scoreboard. Northern Illinois' offense is pretty average and will struggle to get much going on the road against a BC defense that is allowing 1.4 yards/carry and only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 44.6% of their attempts. I see a lot of empty drives and field goals when they get in opposing territory. Give me the UNDER 47.5!

50* NCAAF --Sharp Money Total Crusher-- (Under 49)

I think the books have set too high of a total here for tonight's prime time matchup between Boise State and Virginia. Both of these teams are strong defensively and that should have these two average offenses struggling to sustain drives and finish them off with touchdowns. Boise State will be without starting quarterback Ryan Finley, which means they are going to have an inexperienced signal caller making his first start on the road, a situation that doesn't figure to end well. Virginia's offense is limited and the Broncos are more than capable of keeping them in check. The energy and intensity that comes with playing in front of a national audience only adds to the value here with this total. I wouldn't be shocked if both teams failed to reach 20 points. Give me the UNDER 49!

50* NCAAF *SEC TOTAL OF THE MONTH* (Under 53)

I don't see any value on the spread in this one, but I absolutely love the UNDER. Alabama does not have the same offensive explosion as last year, but are improved defensively. For Ole Miss, all the talk has been about the offense, but I've been more impressed with the defense. I think we are going to see two of the best defenses in the country, potentially the best two, go to battle. I think we could see a similar type battle to Alabama's 2011 home game against LSU, where the game ended with a final of 6-9. Even if there's a little more offense than that, I don't see it getting into the 50's. Give me the UNDER 53!

50* NCAAF *FRIDAY NIGHT TOTAL CRUSHER* (Under 65)

This may seem like a low total given these two teams combined for 81 points in Arizona State's 58-23 blowout win at New Mexico last year, but I actually think the value is on the UNDER. Both teams bring a lot back defensively. Sun Devils returned 9 defensive starters and the Lobos brought back 7. Both will have a much better understanding of what the other team is looking to do offensively. New Mexico likes to run the football and that's going to eat up some clock and I don't see the Sun Devils trying to run up the score late with two huge games on deck against USC at home and UCLA on the road. These prime time games also tend to bring out the best defensively and I think ASU could make life extremely difficult on New Mexico, who scored just 21 points last week against Tulsa at home. Under is 13-4 in Arizona State's last 17 home games with a total set at 63 or more points. ROLL THE UNDER 65!

50* NFL *PRO GRIDIRON TOTAL CRUSHER*

The public is all over the OVER in this one, as the perception here is that we have two high-powered offenses. The bookmakers know that the majority of the action was going to come in on the OVER and I believe they have inflated this total, creating some great value here on the UNDER. Pittsburgh is without several key pieces offensively in running back Le'Veon Bell, wide out Martavis Bryant and center Maurkice Pouncey. As for New England, I don't think there offense is going to be in sync out of the gate with all the distractions surrounding Brady and Deflategate, plus they are without running back LeGarrette Blount and wide out Brandon LaFell. Starting center Bryan Stork is doubtful and wide out Julian Edelman will be playing on a bum ankle. Too many key pieces missing for this one to be a shootout. Roll the UNDER 51.5!

10* Seahawks/Patriots NFL Top Play

BET: UNDER 47.5

I think this game could go either way and there's really no value betting the spread, which is why I turned my full attention to the total. I think there is a ton of value on the UNDER, as we have two of the best defenses in the league that are going to make life miserable for the opposing offenses. The Seahawks strength offensively is without question their running game, while the strength of the Patriots stop unit is their defense. Seattle's league-best pass defense, also matches up extremely well with New England's 9th ranked passing attack. I'm expecting a lot of empty possessions with both teams having to settle for field goals instead of touchdowns when they do make it into the redzone. Roll the UNDER 47.5!

10* Cardinals/Panthers NFL Top Play

BET: UNDER 38

10* Clemson/Oklahoma CFB Top Play

BET: UNDER 49

10* Broncos/Bengals NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 47

10* Titans/Jaguars NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 38.5

10* Chargers/Broncos NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 50.5

10* Falcons/Packers NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 54.5

10* Giants/Titans NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 46.5

10* Arizona/Oregon CFB Top Play

BET: UNDER 74

10* Cowboys/Bears NFL Top Play

BET: OVER 51