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WNBA Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
07-15-22	Lynx -3 v. Fever		87-77	Win	100	7 h 25 m	Show
Minnesota is in must-win mode after losing, 92-87, at home to the Wings on Thursday. The Lynx are 2 1/2 games out of the final playoff spot. The Lynx also have double revenge motivation. They are a lot stronger now with Sylvia Fowles back in the lineup. Indiana is the worst team in the WNBA with a 5-20 record. Done for the season, the Fever are going with young players in rebuild mode. They have the worst defense in the league.
07-06-22	Liberty v. Aces UNDER 170	Top	116-107	Loss	-105	11 h 13 m	Show
The Aces can't wait until All-Star break, which for them comes after this game. The Aces need to regroup going 2-4 in their last six games, including a 102-71 loss in their game this past Sunday on the road against Minnesota. Las Vegas coach Becky Hammon and her team have been talking about urgency on defense since that loss. New York is the lowest scoring team in the WNBA averaging 77.3. The Liberty have averaged 77.1 points in regulation during their last six games. The Liberty are highly reliant on the outside shooting of Sabrina Ionescu. She's been cold, though, shooting a combined 11-for-37 (29.7 percent) from the field in New York's last two games. The Liberty rank 10th in 3-point accuracy. Las Vegas is fifth in 3-point defense. Las Vegas still leads the WNBA in scoring at 89 points per game. However, unlike earlier in the season, opponents aren't getting caught unprepared by first-year Aces coach Hammon's new-look offense. They've worked on slowing down the Aces, who like to play up-tempo since they have a small lineup. Expect the Liberty to slow the pace here. The Under has cashed in 10 of the Liberty's last 13 (77 percent) games against Western Conference teams. The Aces haven't scored more than 80 points in regulation during four of their last five games. New York ranks No. 2 in the league in defensive field goal percentage.
07-03-22	Mystics v. Sun -5	Top	72-74	Loss	-110	12 h 22 m	Show
This is a battle of the second and third-best teams in the Eastern Conference, who are in back of the defending champion Chicago Sky. Connecticut is 7-2 in its last nine games if you take away two losses the Sun suffered to the Sky, who are tied for the best record in the WNBA with Las Vegas at 15-5. The Sun have tremendous urgency here in protecting their home court. But the key is Elena Delle Donne is not going to play for Washington. She's a superstar and the Mystics' leading scorer at 15.3 points. She is being rested. Connecticut hosted Washington on May 28. Delle Donne did not play in that game either. The Sun won, 79-71. Washington is 1-3 the last four times Delle Donne has sat out.
07-01-22	Fever +13.5 v. Storm		57-73	Loss	-110	9 h 29 m	Show
Fresh off a huge victory against Las Vegas two days ago, the Storm are in letdown mode hosting last-place Indiana. Seattle does not have a good track record in these situations: 8-22 ATS versus below .500 opponents, 3-10 ATS following a victory and 0-5 ATS the past five times hosting the Fever. Indiana should put forth an effort after being ripped by its coach following a blowout road loss to Phoenix two days ago. The Fever is capable of pulling off upsets. They've pulled off two of them in their last six games beating the defending champion Sky and Lynx. The Fever haven't matched up well against the rejuvenated Mercury losing to them three times in their last six games. But this is a different opponent.
06-30-22	Dream v. Liberty -4.5		92-81	Loss	-115	7 h 47 m	Show
The Liberty has stepped up their game going 5-2 SU, 6-1 ATS in their last seven games. New York beat Atlanta, 89-77, on the road in its last game six days ago. So the Liberty will be well rested for this rematch. They don't play again until Sunday so their focus should be there, too. Atlanta has been playing short-handed. The Dream have lost three in a row and carry a fatigue rating having just played two days ago, dropping a 92-74 game on the road to Washington. This is the Dream's third game in five days.
06-29-22	Aces v. Storm OVER 164.5	Top	78-88	Win	100	10 h 24 m	Show
This matchup features the WNBA's No. 1 scorer (Breanna Stewart), No. 2 scorer (Kelsey Plum) and No. 6 scorer (A'ja Wilson). But there's more than those excellent scorers as to why I like this total to go Over. Both rotations are aided in the production department. Las Vegas has back from injury sharpshooter Riquna Williams while the Storm just picked up veteran star Tina Charles after she left the Mercury. Las Vegas leads the WNBA in scoring. The Aces have scored at least 89 points in nine of their last 13 games. Seattle ranks No. 2 in the WNBA in 3-point accuracy. The Storm should be offensive-minded after scoring only nine points in the fourth quarter during an 85-77 home loss to the Sparks this past Saturday in their last game. The Storm have been stressing offense during the past three days since they last played. Their energy level should be high. The Over has cashed in six of the last eight meetings between the two teams.
06-25-22	Mystics v. Aces -8	Top	87-86	Loss	-110	21 h 16 m	Show
Four days. That's how long the Aces have had to stew about blowing a WNBA-record 28-point lead to the Sky in a 104-95 home loss to Chicago this past Tuesday. Elite coach Becky Hammon and her Aces, who own the best record in the WNBA at 13-3, finally get back on the court to host the struggling Mystics Saturday. I'm fully expecting the far more talented and thoroughly embarrassed Aces to bury the Mystics. Washington is 1-3 in its last four games. The Mystics are 1-4 ATS in their last five road contests. They are in action for the fourth time in seven days. This is their fifth straight different venue. There's a chance the Mystics rest their superstar player, Elena Delle Donne, like they have been doing. Delle Donne, who leads Washington in scoring at 15.3 points a game, played in the Mystics' previous game. That was an 85-71 loss to the Storm in Seattle. Fatigue might have gotten to the Mystics in that loss since they trailed by just two points in the fourth quarter. But even if Delle Donne plays, I see this as a blowout victory for the Aces. Washington only is averaging 72.2 points during its last four games. The Aces are the No. 1 scoring team in the league averaging 91.5 points. Las Vegas has covered four of the past five times hosting the Mystics.
06-21-22	Lynx +6 v. Mercury		84-71	Win	100	10 h 41 m	Show
The season record shows the Lynx at 3-13. But Minnesota is a well-coached, spunky underdog. The Lynx usually can be counted on for a strong effort. That's certainly been the case recently. They nearly upset the Storm and Aces during their last two games. Minnesota has lost its last three games by a combined seven points. Phoenix has been a disappointment this season. The Mercury haven't won by more than five points in regulation in 12 of their last 14 games. They lack depth and have been horrible at closing games out. This is the largest Phoenix has been favored all season. One problem the Mercury have had is the on-going saga of their star big player, seven-time All-Star Brittney Griner. She's been detained in Russia since February. This has been a constant black cloud and distraction for the team. Members of the Mercury just met with State Department officials recently to try to get Griner released. Her safety remains a constant worry for her teammates. This is what veteran guard Diana Taurasi said, "We want (Griner) to come home as soon as possible; it's No. 1 on our list.'' The Lynx don't have that distraction. They are desperate for a victory having come so close recently against better competition.
06-19-22	Lynx +15.5 v. Aces		95-96	Win	100	5 h 54 m	Show
The Lynx are 12-4-1 ATS the last 17 times against the Aces when playing in Las Vegas. This includes covering a 10-point spread against the Aces on May 19. Minnesota nearly upset Seattle in its last game five days ago, losing by two points as an 8 1/2-point 'dog. The Aces are the best team in the WNBA. But their bench isn't very good. So the backdoor should remain open if the Aces were to build a big lead. If you exclude the Sparks, the Aces have only one win by more than 12 points during their last eight games.
06-19-22	Lynx v. Aces UNDER 174		95-96	Loss	-110	5 h 53 m	Show
This is by far the highest total on a Lynx game and it doesn't make sense to me given the matchup. Yes, the Aces are the highest scoring team in the league, averaging nearly 91 points per game. But Minnesota is the second-lowest scoring team in the WNBA at 77.3 points. The Lynx do not play fast under respected head coach Cheryl Reeve. They certainly don't figure to get into an up-tempo game on the road against the Aces. Only once in their last six games have the Lynx had a total higher than 158. Previous to this game, the highest total on a Minnesota game was 169 1/2. The Aces have a weak bench so scoring could be down if the Aces build up a huge lead and cut back on their starter's minutes.
06-16-22	Mystics v. Liberty +4.5		65-77	Win	100	7 h 6 m	Show
Sparked by star guard Sabrina Ionescu, who finally has managed to stay healthy, the Liberty has won four of their last six games while going 5-1 ATS. Ionescu has sparked this with her hot shooting, scoring 23 or more points in five of her last six games. The Liberty upset the Mystics, 74-70, on the road 13 days ago when Washington had its best player, Elena Delle Donne, in the lineup. Delle Donne is going to be rested in this game. The Mystics have covered just once in their last five games. They are dealing with a fatigue factor, too, playing for the fifth time in nine days. Washington also has a look-ahead game hosting the Sun next in a much bigger matchup.
06-14-22	Mercury v. Mystics OVER 165		65-83	Loss	-110	8 h 51 m	Show
Phoenix has a lot of star power. The Mercury have been shooting better, too, averaging 86 points in regulation during their last four games. The Mercury, though, have a bottom-three defense. The teams just met two days ago and Phoenix won, 99-90, in overtime. The Mystics, however, didn't have their leading scorer and best player, Elena Delle Donne. Still, they scored 85 points in regulation without her. Delle Donne is expected to play today. Here's an interesting trend that points to the strong possibility of an Over: The Mercury have gone Over in 15 of the last 18 instances when playing an above .500 foe while the Mystics have gone Over 14 of the last 17 times when going against a sub .500 opponent.
06-11-22	Aces v. Sparks +7		89-72	Loss	-110	8 h 7 m	Show
The Aces may be the best team in the WNBA. But this spot sets up for the Sparks. Los Angeles is an underachieving 5-7 this season. I put a large part of that blame on the inept coaching of Derek Fisher and inconsistent play of four-time All-Star LIz Cambage. The Sparks finally had enough of Fisher. He was fired this past Tuesday. Assistant Fred Williams is the Sparks' interim coach now. He formerly coached at Utah, Atlanta and Dallas where Cambage played under him four years ago and had her best season. The Sparks should be extremely motivated in Williams' first game as their head coach. This is especially so for Cambage, who is going against her former Las Vegas teammates. If this isn't enough, the Sparks also have revenge for a bad, 104-76, road loss to Las Vegas on May 23. The Sparks have covered 13 of the last 18 times as a home 'dog. They are 5-2 ATS the last seven times they've hosted Las Vegas. The Aces haven't played in six days. That's too much time off. So there could be a rust factor to their game.
06-10-22	Dream v. Mercury -3	Top	88-90	Loss	-110	12 h 5 m	Show
Given their talent level even without Brittney Griner, the Mercury have been a huge disappointment this season. But Phoenix finally is showing life. The Mercury have covered their last three games beating the Sparks and nearly upsetting powerful Connecticut and defending WNBA champion Chicago. Now the Mercury have their Revenge Game of the Year. The Dream embarrassed them on national television, 81-54, in Atlanta on May 29. Atlanta has tailed off since a surprising strong strong. The Dream have a losing record in their last seven games. They are 1-4 ATS the past five times as underdogs and have failed to cover during five of their last six visits to Phoenix. Look for the Mercury to go full throttle in getting their revenge.
06-08-22	Fever +15.5 v. Sun		69-88	Loss	-110	9 h 39 m	Show
Yes, the Fever have the worst record in the WNBA at 3-10. However, they've only lost two games by more than 14 points. The situation lays out for an Indiana cover against what I see as an inflated point spread. Connecticut is coming off a four-game West Coast trip that was highlighted by a pair of marquee games against Las Vegas. The Sun concluded their road swing with a 93-86 victory against the Storm this past Sunday. The Sun are 1-4 ATS following a victory. This is Connecticut's first home game since May 28. The Sun have a much bigger game on Friday when they host the defending champion Chicago Sky. The Fever have been idle since Sunday. They have the league's third-league scorer, Kelsey Mitchell. She ripped her team following Indiana's last loss saying they were playing too lackadaisical. I envision the Fever playing with a lot of intensity here. They have double revenge. The Sun, on the other hand, are in a letdown spot and look-ahead spot.
06-07-22	Lynx v. Liberty -140		69-88	Win	100	17 h 38 m	Show
New York not only has short revenge for a Sunday home loss to the Lynx, but double revenge, too. Minnesota won, 84-77. The Lynx shot 49 percent from the floor, made 7 of 13 3-pointers and sank 15 of 20 free throws. Aerial Powers tied her career-high with 27 points on 11 of 22 shooting from the field, including 3-of-3 from beyond the arc. New York, by contrast, shot 45 percent from the floor, missed 26 of 30 shots from 3-point range and made nine of 13 free throws. Despite this, the Liberty rallied from a 19-point third quarter deficit to come within one point of the Lynx with under four minutes left before slipping back. The Liberty was playing its best stretch of ball prior to that game winning and covering two in a row. That was just Minnesota's second road win in seven away contests.
06-05-22	Mystics +6.5 v. Sky		82-91	Loss	-110	7 h 41 m	Show
First the bad news in backing the Mystics. No Elena Delle Donne, who is their leading scorer and best player. This is a rest game for her. That's built into the line, though. So I'll take this many points based on the situation and spot. This is a battle for second place in the Eastern Conference. The Mystics are used to playing without Delle Donne, who frequently has rest days. Washington is coming off a bad Friday home loss to the Liberty as a 12-point favorite. Washington has covered its last five road games. I think the Mystics give the Sky their best punch. Chicago is 7-17 ATS as a home favorite the past 24 times. Chicago's last five victories have been by an average of fewer than six points. The Mystics lost earlier to the Sky at home, but are 7-2 ATS the past nine times playing them in Chicago. The Sky loses some of its home court advantage because they had to fly in from Atlanta late Friday night following a hard-fought win against the Dream.
06-03-22	Sun v. Mercury +5		92-88	Win	100	10 h 24 m	Show
Rotten timing for the Sun. Connecticut just upset Las Vegas, 97-90, last night in perhaps its most satisfying victory of the season. Now the Sun have to play for the second time in two nights and third time in four days against a rested and desperate Phoenix squad. All of the Sun's top players logged more than 31 minutes against the Aces last night. Connecticut is 1-4 ATS the past five times following a victory. Phoenix is in dire need of a victory having lost six in a row. The Mercury, though, covered against the Sky losing by three points as a nine-point road 'dog in their last game. That was three days ago. So the Mercury should be much more rested and prepared than Connecticut. This is their first home game since May 19 so they should be fired-up. The Mercury have talented and prideful players - Skylar Diggins-Smith, Tina Charles, Diamond DeShields and the always fiery Diana Taurasi.
06-02-22	Sun +4.5 v. Aces	Top	97-90	Win	100	10 h 22 m	Show
The Aces are proving to be the best team in the Western Conference. The Sun could be the top team in the Eastern Conference. The teams met two days ago in Las Vegas and the Aces won, 89-81. The Aces were 4-point favorites in that game. The line is slightly higher now so I'm going to get involved with Connecticut in this rapid revenge, short turnaround. The Sun are 8-2 ATS following a loss. They also are 9-3 ATS the past dozen times when playing on one day's rest. Connecticut is the No. 2 offensive team in the WNBA behind the Aces and ranks third defensively. Las Vegas is sixth defensively. I believe the Sun will be more prepared and play better against the Aces than they did on Tuesday. The Aces went with a zone defense against the Sun. Connecticut had trouble denting it, making just six of 22 3-pointers. The Sun only made 7 of 12 free throws for 58 percent. The Aces, on the other hand, hit 17 of 20 free throws. That's quite a free throw disparity. Reigning WNBA MVP Jonquel Jones had a bad game for the Sun, scoring just eight points. Brionna Jones, who is the Sun's fourth-best player, played fewer than 19 minutes due to foul trouble. Look for Jones and the Sun to shoot better and get a better free throw breakdown. This should lead to a cover if not outright upset win.
06-01-22	Fever v. Liberty UNDER 164.5		74-87	Win	100	9 h 34 m	Show
Neither of these teams are good defensively. Hence, the somewhat high total. However, both are bad offensively, too. That, along with the situation, puts me on the Under. Indiana is 10th out of 12 teams in field goal percentage. The Fever rank last in free throw percentage. New York is last in scoring, field goal percentage and 3-point shooting. Now the situation. The Fever are playing without rest, which is a rarity in the WNBA. Indiana was outscored by 20 points in the second half in an 87-75 loss to the Mystics at home last night. Now the Fever had to fly into New York. So expect a slower pace from the Fever. The Liberty have lost seven in a row. Their 1-7 record is the worst in the league. But they have a real opportunity to halt their losing skid at home here. So expect an intense, defensive effort, something the players have talked about in their pregame comments.
05-31-22	Wings +1.5 v. Sparks		91-93	Loss	-110	10 h 23 m	Show
Derek Fisher's poorly coached Sparks have not beaten a winning team since their opener. I don't believe they'll end that streak against the 5-3 Wings. Dallas is stepping down in class after splitting a pair of road games against Connecticut, the best team in the Eastern Conference. This is the Wings' first game in five days so they will be well rested and prepared. The Sparks, on the other hand, will be in action for the fifth time in nine days. LA could have a shorthanded backcourt with Jordan Canada and Lexie Brown both questionable. Canada is the Sparks' third-leading scorer and top assists person. Dallas has covered 20 of the last 27 times as a road 'dog. The Sparks are 1-5 ATS the past six times when playing an above .500 opponent.
05-29-22	Mercury v. Dream		54-82	Loss	-115	13 h 15 m	Show
Phoenix is off to a slow start at 2-5. But the Mercury have shown their veteran skill set with a pair of victories against the Storm. They also have back star guard Skyler Diggins-Smith, who is coming off a 28-point game. I like Phoenix's depth in the backcourt with Diggins-Smith, Diana Taurasi, Diamond DeShields and Shey Peddy. The Dream has crashed back to Earth after a fast start with consecutive losses to the Mystics by a combined 25 points. The Mercury has covered six of the last seven in the series.
05-28-22	Mystics v. Sun UNDER 156.5		71-79	Win	100	8 h 24 m	Show
I'm expecting a defensive showdown here. Not only are the Mystics and Sun the top two teams in the Eastern Conference, but they also rank first and second, respectively, in defense. The Mystics are holding foes to a WNBA-best 72.4 points per game. Connecticut is right there ranking second, giving up 73.4 points. The Sun also lead the league in creating turnovers and steals. The Mystics will be without their leading scorer, Elena Delle Donne. The star player, averaging 17.7 points, has a scheduled day off, according to Mystics coach Mike Thibault. The Sun recently lost their veteran point guard, Jasmine Thomas, to a season-ending knee injury. Thomas' absence could hurt the Sun's offense in this matchup.
05-27-22	Liberty +12.5 v. Storm		71-79	Win	100	11 h 41 m	Show
Seattle has a strong pedigree. But right now Seattle just isn't that good. The Storm are a .500 team that could be 1-5 if not for close victories against the Sky and Sparks. Phoenix's only two wins this season have come against the Storm. The Storm rank 10th in scoring and are last in field goal percentage. Seattle has failed to cover 14 of the last 17 times it has been favored. So I believe the Liberty can hang within single digits. They have better talent than their 1-5 record indicates. New York should have defeated the improved Lynx on the road this past Tuesday. The Liberty blew an eight-point fourth quarter lead. Minnesota made 27 of 33 free throws in that game.
05-26-22	Wings v. Sun -7		68-99	Win	100	7 h 54 m	Show
Short home revenge for Connecticut after the Wings upset the Sun, 85-77, on the road two days ago. That loss snapped a four-game Connecticut win streak. The Sun may not have had their full focus for that game after finding out that day that their starting point guard, Jasmine Thomas, will miss the rest of the season because of a torn ACL. Thomas has been a veteran leader for the Sun the past seven seasons. The Wings have firepower, but the Sun should be highly motivated for this game. The Sun still have excellent talent with Alyssa Thomas and Jonquel Jones. They've helped the Sun rank as the No. 2 scoring team in the league. Connecticut has adequate replacements for Thomas.
05-24-22	Fever +13.5 v. Sky		90-95	Win	100	11 h 44 m	Show
The Sky and a happy Candace Parker are coming off a highly-satisfying national TV road win against the Mystics this past Sunday. Parker scored a triple-double against Washington. It was much celebrated since Parker was the oldest player in WNBA history to achieve that. Now the Sky get the rebuilding Fever, losers of four in a row. Following this game, Chicago gets Las Vegas at home up next. The Aces have the best record in the WNBA. So the situation sets up well for Indiana catching the Sky in a flat spot off a big win and with a huge look-ahead game. The Sky are 1-7-1 ATS the past nine times when meeting a foe with a losing record. Indiana is 10-3 ATS the last 13 times following a loss.
05-23-22	Sparks v. Aces -10		76-104	Win	100	12 h 18 m	Show
The Aces are really dangerous now that they have an elite coach in Becky Hammon. So it's no surprise the Aces have the best record in the WNBA at 6-1 (5-2 ATS). This is the Aces' final game of their homestand. They won't play again for five days before taking on the Sky in Chicago. The Sparks have always been a rivalry matchup for the Aces. So I see Las Vegas being up for this game. The Sparks are inconsistent as they have been during the Derek Fisher coaching era. LA has lost four in a row going 1-3 ATS. The Sparks are 2-6 ATS following a loss. I see a motivated Aces squad covering a double-digit spread at home here.
05-22-22	Sky v. Mystics OVER 159.5		82-73	Loss	-110	4 h 10 m	Show
The Mystics get back Elena Delle Donne, their leading scorer, for this game. That's huge both for Washington and for the total. The Mystics won't have injured guard Alysha Clark, though. That's another plus for the Over because she's an excellent defensive player. These are two of the top-five scoring teams in the WNBA. So I see this total as being short.
05-21-22	Lynx +5 v. Wings		78-94	Loss	-110	10 h 45 m	Show
The Lynx are 1-5, but 1-1 since Kayla McBride made her season debut. Minnesota defeated the Sparks and hung in against the Aces during its current road trip going 2-0 ATS. Now they Lynx get the Wings, who are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 home games. Dallas is off a huge, 94-84, win against the Mercury from two days ago. So this is a potential letdown spot for Dallas. Minnesota has covered five of the past six in the series.
05-20-22	Fever +14 v. Sun		85-94	Win	100	9 h 30 m	Show
Until getting buried, 101-79, by the Dream this past Tuesday, Indiana had not lost a game by more than 14 points in any of its six games. Fever coach Marianne Stanley ripped her team following that loss questioning the Fever's effort and intensity among other things. So the Fever should be primed for a big effort here. Connecticut is fat and happy off a 92-65 victory against New York this past Tuesday. The Sun forced 32 turnovers in that win. Indiana turned the ball over only 12 times in its loss to the Dream. The Fever also held a rebound edge. Atlanta, though, was hot making 54 percent from the floor, including 10-of-22 3-pointers. It was a combination of poor defense by Indiana and excellent shooting by Atlanta. The Fever are 9-3 ATS following a loss. The Sun has played just three games. Indiana has played twice as many games. The teams meet again Sunday in Indianapolis. So the Sun won't likely want to run up a score knowing there would be a rapid revenge factor. This could leave the backdoor open in case Connecticut does build up a big advantage.
05-19-22	Lynx +11 v. Aces		87-93	Win	100	5 h 60 m	Show
After an 0-4 start, the Lynx got their first win two nights ago beating the Sparks, 87-84. It was not a coincidence that it was Kayla McBride's season debut after returning from Turkey where she led her team to a Turkish title. Minnesota is a much better team with McBride on the court. The Lynx can stay within double-digits of the Aces, who are 2-5 ATS following a win and 1-4 ATS when playing on one day's rest. The Lynx, on the other hand, are 12-4-1 ATS following a victory.
05-11-22	Storm -4.5 v. Mercury		77-97	Loss	-110	10 h 29 m	Show
I want the prideful, well-coached Storm off a bad loss to Las Vegas in their last game. The Mercury are down a number of key players. They will be missing Kia Nurse and Brittney Griner and also are likely to be without Brianna Turner and Diamond DeShields. The Storm has covered five of the last seven times in Phoenix.
05-10-22	Aces v. Mystics +5.5		76-89	Win	100	6 h 47 m	Show
The Aces blew out the Phoenix Mercury, who were missing Brittney Griner. They then beat the Seattle Storm, who were missing their starting center. So the Aces enter this matchup fat and happy. Washington is 6-2 ATS as a home 'dog while the Aces have failed to cover five of the last seven times as chalk.
05-08-22	Storm v. Aces OVER 175.5		74-85	Loss	-110	12 h 30 m	Show
The oddsmaker struggles to post accurate numbers during the opening week of the WNBA season. That's especially true when it comes to totals. And he's come up short with this total. Seattle scored 97 points in its opener. Las Vegas scored even more, producing 106. The Aces are going to be much better coached under Becky Harmon this season. The Over has cashed in six of the last seven meetings between the two teams.
10-17-21	Mercury v. Sky -4		74-80	Win	100	17 h 31 m	Show
Diana Taurasi, Skylar Diggs-Smith and Brittany Griner are great players who have tremendous pride. They will try to dig deep to keep Phoenix alive down 2-1 in this best-of-five WNBA championship series. But Chicago is playing too well, has home-court - which can not be underestimated - and isn't carrying the fatigue factor Phoenix is. The Sky blew out the Mercury, 86-50, two days ago in front of a home sell-out crowd of 10,378. If the Sky play as well as they did Friday, they will be the champions. There's no reason they shouldn't. Their defense has been stellar. Phoenix is lucky not to have been swept in this series having pulled off a home overtime victory in Game 2. Candace Parker, Kahleah Copper, Diamond DeShields and Courtney Vandersloot all are playing at high levels for Chicago. The Sky have gotten that important inside defense needed against Griner. The Mercury committed 17 turnovers in Game 3 while shooting just 25 percent from the field, the second-lowest percentage in WNBA Finals history. The Sky actually outscored Griner and the rest of the Mercury in the paint, 36-14. Phoenix has no chance if it is dominated inside like that. Some of the Mercury's problems are caused by fatigue. The league gave them no break starting the finals just two days after the Mercury won a hard-fought five-game series against the Aces. That took a huge physical and mental toll. This marks Phoenix's sixth game in 12 days.
10-15-21	Mercury v. Sky UNDER 167	Top	50-86	Win	100	19 h 17 m	Show
This total may look short based on Phoenix's 91-86 victory over Chicago two days ago, but it isn't. There were 158 points scored during regulation. It took an overtime for that total to go Over. This is a physical series with a lot of wear and tear that is taking a toll. Sky guard Allie Quigley, for instance, is one of the best 3-point shooters in the league. But she's missed 18 of 24 from beyond the range in this series. Chicago has played its best defense of the season during the playoffs. The Sky has the Mercury out of their rhythm. Phoenix is relying on its superstar center Brittney Griner to bail them out with second chance points and inside scoring. Griner is playing well, but she is looking at a fatigue factor not to mention the Sky's strong defense inside the paint. The Mercury is playing for the fifth time in 10 days, which is a lot for a WNBA team. Griner has logged big minutes. She played 41:29 minutes on Wednesday. That has to take a toll.
10-13-21	Sky v. Mercury -3.5	Top	86-91	Win	100	23 h 3 m	Show
This really is a must-win spot for Phoenix. If the Mercury lose they trail 2-0 in the best-of-five WNBA championship series and have to play in Chicago for Game 3. The Sky are playing their best ball. Granted. But they were in a great spot for Game 1 when they defeated the Mercury, 91-77, this past Sunday. Chicago had been idle for four days having taken out Connecticut in four games. The Mercury, meanwhile, had to come back and defeat Las Vegas on the road this past Friday to win the five-game Western Conference series. The Mercury were still feeling physically and mentally exhausted from nipping the Aces, 87-84, while being forced to play for the third time in five days. Now, though, the Mercury have had a chance to regroup. Brittney Griner gives Phoenix a dominating inside presence. Griner is having a strong postseason averaging 20.9 points and 9.3 rebounds. I don't see veteran stars Griner, Diana Taurasi and Skylar Diggins-Smith losing this clutch game and getting swept at home.
10-10-21	Sky +3 v. Mercury		91-77	Win	100	5 h 41 m	Show
The Mercury finds themselves at a real disadvantage in this first game of the WNBA championship series. Chicago has been idle for four days. The Sky knocked off Connecticut, the best defensive team in the league, in four games. They've been on the West Coast since Friday rested and ready. Phoenix gutted out a full five-game series against Las Vegas. They edged the Aces, 87-84, Friday night in Las Vegas. The Mercury accomplished this despite missing Kia Nurse and Sophia Cunningham. Those are two of their seven best players. Nurse is out for the season with a knee injury while Cunningham is questionable with a strained calf. This will be the Mercury's third game in five days. The Sky are playing their best defense of the season. They are far from the team that went 0-3 against the Mercury during the regular season. The Mercury beat Chicago by one point and in overtime during two of their victories. A key for the Sky will be limiting the inside presence of Brittney Griner. They kept Sun's superstar Jonquel Jones in check with strong inside defense. They have the depth to do this against Griner, too.
10-06-21	Sun v. Sky UNDER 155.5		69-79	Win	100	8 h 49 m	Show
Connecticut was the No. 1 defensive team in the WNBA this season giving up less than 70 points a game. The Sun also ranked No. 2 in defensive field goal percentage and No. 3 in 3-point defense. But after losing, 86-83, to Chicago this past Sunday the Sun is on the brink of elimination down 2-1 in this semifinal series. If the Suns are to even things they will need to do it with defense. They certainly have that capability. This is going to be a very physical and intense game. The Sky have done a great job keeping Jonquel Jones and the Sun's inside game in check. Chicago has surrendered an average of 77.2 points in regulation during its five playoff games. This is down from the 81.9 points it permitted during the regular season.

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