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NFL Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
12-12-21	Giants v. Chargers UNDER 43.5		21-37	Loss	-110	64 h 46 m	Show
Anyway you cut it, the Giants are going to be terrible at QB with a choice of injured Daniel Jones, immobile journeyman Mike Glennon, or fourth-stringer Jake Fromm, who was on Buffalo's practice squad last week behind three other QB's. The Giants are not in sync with their new offensive coordinator, Freddie Kitchens. They have a bad offensive line, a battered wide receiving corps and Saquan Barkley remains unproductive nowhere near his elite status before he suffered a serious knee injury last year. New York is averaging 14.4 points in its last five games. The Giants' offense looks much better on paper than it really is. The Chargers are dealing with COVID-19 problems that have struck their two best wideouts, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Unlike their offense, the Giants are better defensively than perceived, giving up an average of 16 points during their last six games.
12-12-21	Seahawks v. Texans UNDER 41.5		33-13	Loss	-109	61 h 47 m	Show
The Texans have one of the all-time worst offenses regardless of who their QB is, Tyrod Taylor or Davis Mills. Houston ranks last in points, yards and rushing yards. They are second-to-last in passing yards. The Texans are averaging 10.6 points in their last 10 games. Seattle's defense has gotten much better. The Seahawks have surrendered 20 or fewer points during regulation in six of their last eight games. The Seahawks' defense has accomplished this despite a weak offense that doesn't have any semblance of a ground attack. Russell Wilson is having a down year caused in part by a finger injury. The Texans' defense usually plays hard. Prior to giving up 31 points to the Colts last week, the Texans had allowed an average of 17 points in its past three games.
12-06-21	Patriots v. Bills UNDER 42.5	Top	14-10	Win	100	82 h 1 m	Show
Not only do the Patriots and Bills have the two best statistical defenses in the NFL, but there is a strong weather factor, too. Throw in this being a huge division game with two top-notch defensive coaches and you have all the right ingredients for an Under. New England is first in scoring defense holding foes to 15.8 points a game. Buffalo is next giving up 16.5 points. The Bills rank No. 1 in total defense. The weather forecast is frightful - rain, gusty winds in the 20-40 mph range and cold weather. In other words, Buffalo in December. Mac Jones hasn't experienced this type of weather. Bill Belichick is sure to have a sound defensive game plan for Josh Allen, who isn't having the big year he had last season. The Patriots are second in takeaways.
12-05-21	Colts v. Texans UNDER 45		31-0	Win	100	37 h 46 m	Show
When I see a total in this range on a Texans game, I have to think Under. Houston has the worst offense in the NFL ranking last in points, total yards and rushing yards. They are second-to-last in passing yards. The Texans' poor offensive numbers aren't completely attributable to rookie QB Davis Mills either. They've averaged 15 points and 221 total yards during their last three games since Tyrod Taylor came back. The Colts lead the league in takeaways with 26. The Colts have held five of their last nine opponents to 18 or fewer points. They beat the Texans, 31-3, in the first meeting. Indy is stepping way down in class after surrendering 38 points to the Buccaneers last Sunday. Houston is underrated defensively. The Texans rank 15th in pass defense and are in the top 10 in takeaways. They've held their last three foes to an average of 17 points. Safety Justin Reid, perhaps Houston's top defensive player, returns from suspension. The Under has cashed the last five times the teams have met in Houston.
12-05-21	Vikings v. Lions UNDER 47	Top	27-29	Loss	-115	98 h 37 m	Show
The Lions are a dead nuts Under team with their pop gun attack. Detroit hasn't reached 20 points since opening week. During their last 10 games, the Lions are averaging 14.1 points. The Under has cashed in eight of the Lions' last nine games. D'Andre Swift is the Lions' lone explosive weapon - and he's not likely to play because of a shoulder injury that knocked him out of the Thanksgiving game. Minnesota's defense has been a huge disappointment. Multiple injuries have played a role in this. However, Mike Zimmer is a top-notch defensive mind and his team shouldn't have problems holding the Lions' down, especially considering the mindset of Lions coach Dan Campbell, who wants his team to play low-scoring games. The Vikings will be without their most dynamic player, Dalvin Cook. He's sidelined with a shoulder injury. That ensures a heavy workload for plodding Alexander Mattison, a North/South type runner good for the Under.
11-28-21	Bucs v. Colts UNDER 53.5		38-31	Loss	-110	48 h 47 m	Show
The marketplace is betting this game up. I understand Jonathan Taylor is the hottest running back in the NFL and Tom Brady leads the league with 29 TD passes. I just disagree with the move. There are key elements that are not being fully accounted for such as the Buccaneers having the No. 1 run defense in the league giving up 78.4 yards on the ground. The Buccaneers are healthier on defense, too. Cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting is off the injured list. There's a strong chance cornerback Carlton Davis and nose guard Vita Vea play, too, after being out. I regard Tampa Bay's linebackers as among the best if not the best. I don't trust Carson Wentz if Taylor isn't able to do the heavy lifting. The Colts also could be without their best offensive lineman as stud guard Quenton Nelson is questionable with an ankle injury. The Colts rank 11th in scoring defense. They are the best in taking the ball away forcing a league-high 24 turnovers. Indy has forced at least one turnover in 12 consecutive games. These defenses are not being given enough credit.
11-21-21	Steelers v. Chargers OVER 47.5		37-41	Win	100	32 h 19 m	Show
Now that Ben Roethlisberger has cleared COVID-19 protocols, I feel confident playing this game Over the total. The Chargers have an above average offense and an elite QB in Justin Herbert. The Chargers catch a major break in that Pittsburgh is going to be without it's best pass rusher, best safety and top cornerback as T.J. Watt, Minkah Fitzpatrick and Joe Haden have all been ruled out. The Steelers aren't the same minus the dominant Watt, perhaps the best pass rusher in the NFL, and the dynamic ballhawk Fitzpatrick. The Steelers are thin at linebacker, too, after trading Melvin Ingram to the Chiefs earlier this month. The Chargers are averaging 29.7 points in their past four home games. The weather will be perfect here. I expect the Steelers to contribute their fair share of points. LA ranks last in run defense. Najee Harris is the sixth-leading rusher in the NFL. Pittsburgh's young offensive line has been showing improvement. If the Chargers stack the line to key on Harris, Rothelisberger is savvy enough to hurt LA with play-action. It's a plus for Pittsburgh that big-play wideout Chase Claypool is expected to play.
11-21-21	Texans v. Titans OVER 44.5		22-13	Loss	-107	23 h 49 m	Show
The Texans have the worst offense in the NFL ranking last in points and yards per game. They are averaging a mind-boggling 4.2 points in their last four road games. Tyrod Taylor upgrades Houston's offense. But only slightly. He's far better than overmatched rookie Davis Mills, but he's still Tyrod Taylor - a conservative journeyman better at running the ball than completing downfield passes. The Titans have excellent season numbers. However, those numbers are out of context now with Derrick Henry and Julio Jones both out. The Titans have run the ball 55 times in their last two games minus Henry. They've gained 135 yards, an average of 67.5 yards per game. That's their lowest two-game rushing total of the season. No Jones means the Texans can fully concentrate their pass defense on A.J. Brown, who is the Titans' only above average wideout. Both teams have protection problems. The Titans have given up 29 sacks, the Texans 26 sacks. Tennessee's defense is much improved with defensive tackle Jeffery Simmons and linebacker Harold Landry playing at star levels.
11-18-21	Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 47	Top	25-0	Win	100	18 h 35 m	Show
The Falcons have much to prove after scoring just three points in a 40-point loss to the Cowboys last Sunday. Matt Ryan had a passer rating of 21.4 in that game, lowest of his career. It's probably a given the Falcons are going to come out motivated for this Thursday night home game. It's far from a given, though, that they score far more points than last week. New England has an elite defense. Dallas doesn't. The Patriots are giving up the second-fewest points per game in the NFL at 17.7. That number shrinks to 12.5 if you go by the last four games. Atlanta's problems aren't fully on Ryan. Minus traded Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley, who will be missing his fourth straight game to deal with mental health issues, the Falcons are down to just two explosive players, Cordarrelle Patterson and tight end Kyle Pitts. Patterson is dealing with an ankle injury. So he may be out, too. Given Mike Davis' ineffectiveness this season, the Falcons' primary running back could be journeyman Wayne Gallman. That leaves Pitts as a lone force and Bill Belichick is a master at taking away his opponent's most potent weapon. The Falcons won't even have the luxury of playing a second good pass-catching tight end because Hayden Hurst is out with an ankle injury. This isn't the decent Falcons' attack spearheaded by Ryan we're used to seeing. Way too many missing parts. Ryan is going to have to be conservative because of that. The Patriots have 14 interceptions. That's tied for the second-most in the league. The Patriots are far from explosive themselves. Take away their two victories against the Jets and last week's blowout of the Browns and the Patriots are averaging 21.5 points in their seven other games. New England is a run-oriented, ground-and-pound team. Rookie QB Mac Jones has proven accurate, but he's not a big downfield thrower and his wide receiving corps is below average. It's tough for a road team to win when playing on a short week especially facing a non-conference opponent. The last time these teams met was 2017. The short week limits the Patriots' game-planning and chance to be creative on offense. They'll do what they do best - run the ball, play for field position and rely on their defense. That's a good formula for the Under.
11-14-21	Panthers v. Cardinals UNDER 44.5		34-10	Win	100	90 h 41 m	Show
Christian McCaffrey's return isn't nearly enough to give any explosiveness to a Carolina offense that has just one opening week offensive line starter playing his original position and must turn to inaccurate backup QB P.J. Walker, who has a 1-to-5 touchdown-to-interception career ratio. This will be only Walker's second career NFL start. Kyler Murray's MVP-caliber season is the big story in Arizona. But right next to it should be the tremendous strides its defense has made. The Cardinals have surrendered the third fewest points per game and fourth fewest yards. The Cardinals may hold their two big weapons, Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, out a second straight game playing such a punchless opponent and coming off a 31-17 victory against the 49ers behind Colt McCoy and James Conner. McCoy is a game manager. Conner is a North/South runner due for a heavy load with Chase Edmonds out with an ankle injury. The Panthers' strength is their young, talented defense.
11-14-21	Vikings v. Chargers OVER 53		27-20	Loss	-110	90 h 31 m	Show
OK, I'll join the rest of the world in going Over this total. It's still likely to go higher, too. A number of veteran Vikings defensive players are having bad seasons and now injuries and COVID have hit. Danielle Hunter and Patrick Peterson are definitely out. Hunter is Minnesota's most dominant lineman and Peterson their top cornerback. Justin Herbert has the talent and weapons to take advantage. Discount a bad game against the Ravens and the Chargers are averaging 31.2 points in their last five games. The Chargers' defense has some standout talent - Joey Bosa and Derwin James quickly come to mind - but they are overrated as a whole. LA has surrendered an average of 31.7 points in its last four games. That was going against the Browns, Ravens, Patriots and Eagles. The Vikings' offense is at least the equal of those teams. Dalvin Cook is the best all-purpose back the Chargers have seen all season. Justin Jefferson the second-best wide receiver. Kirk Cousins has been rightly criticized for being too conservative. Even a stone age coach like Mike Zimmer realizes his offense has to open up more especially with their third down passing game.
11-08-21	Bears v. Steelers OVER 38.5	Top	27-29	Win	100	34 h 56 m	Show
The Bears hosted the 49ers last week. The total was less than 41. There were 55 points scored. This week the Bears' total for their road game against the Steelers is less than 40. Those kinds of totals are just plain too low in today's NFL where everything is skewed in favor of the offense. Unless you have two horrible offenses and two dominant defenses, it's difficult for an NFL total to go Under this low of a total. And that's not the case for Monday's matchup. Chicago's defense is worse than perceived. Minus Khalil Mack and safety Eddie Jackson, the Bears surrendered 33 points to a middle-of-the-road type 49ers offense. Chicago couldn't record a sack without Mack, nor come up with a takeaway minus Jackson. The 49ers scored on seven consecutive possessions. They never had to punt. Mack is out again and I don't expect Jackson to play either. The Steelers' youthful offensive line is beginning to jell as the season reaches the half-way point. Najee Harris has benefitted averaging 130 scrimmage yards during the last three games. He was the AFC Rookie of the Month for October. Given a ground game to fall back on, Ben Roethlisberger can pick his spots. He has good targets in Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool and underrated tight end Pat Freiermuth. Harris is one of the better all-purpose backs. This total is so low because the Steelers just managed 15 points against the Browns last week. Pittsburgh averaged 25 points in its previous two games, which were both non-division matchups like this one. It's mainly so low, though, because the Bears rank last in total yards and passing yards. They are 31st in scoring. Justin Fields is a work-in-progress. But he's off his best game. Fields is dangerous because he has tremendous mobility and can make big plays. He has good receivers, too, and there's the strong possibility running back David Montgomery returns from his knee injury here. Montgomery is a North-South runner, which isn't good for an Under. But he can keep Fields out of second-and-long situations. Chris Boswell returned to practice so Pittsburgh should have its kicker. No problems with weather either.
11-07-21	Titans v. Rams OVER 52.5		28-16	Loss	-107	35 h 38 m	Show
The Rams are a top-five offense averaging more than 30 points and 400 total yards. Matthew Stafford is putting up MVP numbers and Cooper Kupp has been the best wide receiver in the NFL. Tennessee has a below average defense. The Titans aren't going to be able to stop the Rams. Tennessee's game plan of keeping the ball away from Stafford and Co. is out the window with Derrick Henry out. So the Titans are now forced to keep up with the Rams matching them score for score. They will have to throw to do that. Ryan Tannehill does have the explosive wide receiving weapons to accomplish this. Jeremy McNichols will become a bigger part of the game plan. He's the Titans' second-leading receiver catching passes out of the backfield. Titans offensive coordinator Todd Downing has had a full week to alter his standard game plan knowing Henry won't be available. The Rams picked up Von Miller, which should help their pass rush. But I don't see this happening right away. Miller isn't 100 percent and is past his prime. The Rams could experience some cultural shock having played the Lions, Giants and Texans during their last three games. Now they're playing a real offense.
11-07-21	Chargers v. Eagles OVER 49.5		27-24	Win	100	41 h 46 m	Show
This is a matchup where each team's offensive strength fits the opposing team's defensive weakness. Factor in tempo and that Jerome Boger's crew will be the officials and you have a strong Over the total play. Justin Herbert has a healthy wide receiving group. The Eagles aren't deep in the secondary. Austin Ekeler is one of the better all-purpose running backs in the NFL. He has more than 300 receiving yards and averages 5.0 yards a run. The Chargers rank No. 2 in the NFL in tempo. The Eagles ran for 236 yards against the Lions last week showing they have the running back depth to mitigate the loss of Miles Sanders. The Chargers are last in run defense giving up nearly 160 yards on the ground per game. Jalen Hurts is a dual threat QB and the Chargers have a cluster injury problem at cornerback with Asante Samuel and Michael Davis both out. So Hurts is in a great spot to succeed. The Eagles play at the sixth-fastest pace. The Over has cashed in better than 60 percent of Boger's lifetime games. That's a legitimate statistical number, too, because no other officiating crew calls so many defensive holding calls. It's a great break for Herbert to draw Boger and his flag wavers.
11-07-21	Broncos v. Cowboys OVER 48.5	Top	30-16	Loss	-108	21 h 25 m	Show
Dallas' defense is much improved. But it's far from an elite unit. Jerry Jeudy is back from an ankle injury. He's Denver's most consistent wide receiving threat. His presence opens the field for their other receivers, including the highly-talented Courtland Sutton. Teddy Bridgewater has completed better than 70 percent of his throws. Expect Bridgewater to be passing far more than usual as he'll need to keep up with Dak Prescott and an explosive Cowboys offense. The Broncos' defense looked good at the start of the season. However, they were playing weak offenses and that was before multiple injuries struck. Denver is without its two best inside linebackers, Josey Jewell and A.J. Johnson. That opens up the running game for Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. Denver's pass rush is without Bradley Chubb and now the traded Von Miller. So Prescott should have time to pick his spots. The Cowboys' deep wide receiving corps is made even deeper with the expected return of Michael Gallup, who is talented enough to be a starter on some teams. The Broncos suffered another key defensive injury, losing Bryce Callahan. He was one of the best slot coverage defensive backs.
10-31-21	49ers v. Bears OVER 39.5		33-22	Win	100	15 h 33 m	Show
A lot has to go right defensively and on special teams for a total of less than 40 to go Under in today's NFL with so many rules skewed to offense. Justin Fields has been a disaster - so far. But this will be his sixth start. He has the legs and receiving talent with Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet to put up his share of points. The Bears have gone Under in their last six games, but they've never had a total of less than 40 this season. The 49ers have enough firepower to help this total get Over, too, especially since the Bears will be missing their best defensive player, star pass rusher Khalil Mack. He's out with a foot injury. Chicago ranks 23rd in run defense. The 49ers are ground-oriented. Jimmy Garoppolo is playing for his job. So he knows he has to come in with a good performance here.
10-28-21	Packers v. Cardinals OVER 50	Top	24-21	Loss	-115	25 h 46 m	Show
The Cardinals rank fourth in the NFL in points scored per game at 32.1. That's legitimate with Kyler Murray having an MVP-type season. Arizona ranks first in the NFL in fewest points allowed per game at 16.3. That's not legitimate. Yes, the Cardinals' defense is much improved. But it's not the dominating unit that the statistics show. Arizona has permitted just 29 points in its last three games. Those matchups, though, were against the 49ers, Browns and Texans. The Cardinals faced two rookie quarterbacks during this span - Trey Lance in his starting debut and overmatched Davis Mills - along with a banged-up Baker Mayfield, who probably shouldn't have played against the Cardinals in what was one of his worst performances ever. Mayfield couldn't hit open receivers all game against Arizona. The Packers won't have Davonte Adams and Allen Lazard. If Marquez Valdes-Scantling has to miss a fifth straight game due to a hamstring injury, Green Bay will be without its three top wideouts. Normally this would create a huge problem. That problem isn't the mess the marketplace believes it is in driving the line up to a touchdown. Aaron Rodgers still has weapons. Green Bay has outstanding wide receiver depth. Rodgers has been great since Week 2 with 17 all purpose touchdowns and just one interception during his last six games. By the way, the Packers are 6-0 since 2019 in games Adams has missed. The Cardinals will get Chandler Jones back, but J.J. Watt won't play. I have complete confidence that Rodgers will put up his share of points helping this total go Over. Murray certainly is in line for another big game. Arizona has scored 30 or more points in every game except one. The Packers won't have their top cornerback, Jaire Alexander, nor their best pass rusher, Za'Darius Smith. They may not have their other starting cornerback, Kevin King, nor their third-best pass rusher, Preston Smith. Both missed last Sunday's game and are questionable here not helped by the short week. The Packers holding Washington to 10 points last Sunday is highly misleading. Washton marched up and down the field on Green Bay picking up 430 yards while averaging 6.1 yards per play. Taylor Heinicke just made too many goal line mistakes to take advantage. The Packers have allowed the second-most quarterback rushing yards. That bodes well for double-threat Murray.
10-25-21	Saints v. Seahawks UNDER 43	Top	13-10	Win	100	82 h 23 m	Show
The early forecast is for a high chance of rain - not exactly shocking for Seattle - with winds in the 10 mph range. That's not a plus for the Over. Nor is the quarterback matchup. Jameis Winston has been far more effective in his home games inside the New Orleans zone. Geno Smith is a backup. Both Winston and Smith are turnover-prone. Winston has been sacked nine times and picked off three times in three road games this season. The Saints are solid defensively both against the run and pass. The Saints entered this week ranked third in the metric DVOA, which is defense-adjusted value over average. The Seahawks' defense features middle linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Jamal Adams, two of the top players at their respective positions. The Under has cashed nine of the last 11 times the Seahawks have played an NFC opponent.
10-24-21	Lions v. Rams UNDER 50.5		19-28	Win	100	67 h 3 m	Show
I have been watching the NFL for nearly 60 years. Never have I seen a worse wide receiver group than what the Lions have with Amon-Ra St. Brown, Kalif Raymond, KhaDarel Hodge, Tom Kennedy and Geronimo Allison. Jalen Ramsey can catch up on his reading facing these guys. The Rams, of course, know Jared Goff well. They know his many weaknesses and lack of downfield passing. Detroit's one-time decent offensive line isn't very good anymore either because of injuries and rookie left tackle Penei Sewell's continued struggles. The result is the Lions have failed to score 17 points in their last five games, averaging 15.2 points during this span. They have scored one first half TD since Week 2. The Lions lack talent on defense, too. But they play hard for Dan Campbell. Until getting clobbered by the Bengals, 34-11, this past Sunday the Lions held their previous three foes - Ravens, Bears and Vikings - to an average of 20.6 points. Detroit should be motivated to perform better defensively after getting lit up by the Bengals. Matthew Stafford can produce big points, but Sean McVay has no reason to reveal any trick plays, or new wrinkles against such a weak road foe. If a blowout is occurring, McVay might even pull Stafford and the rest of his offensive starters. The oddsmaker still hasn't quite caught up to the Lions when it comes to totals. The Under has cashed in Detroit's last four games. The Lions have gone Under the total by an average of nearly 11 points a game during their past four games.
10-24-21	Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 46.5		41-17	Loss	-105	64 h 4 m	Show
I was having some doubt about the Ravens' defense - until this past Sunday. The Ravens got back to their effective blitzing ways and held Justin Herbert and his high-powered Chargers attack to a mesley six points. The Ravens held the Bengals to a combined six points last season. Zac Taylor is 0-4 versus Baltimore. I have far more confidence in the Ravens' defense and psychological edge than I do in the Bengals' promising offense and improved-but-still-vulnerable offensive line. I'm far more convinced about Cincinnati's improvement on defense. The Bengals rank fifth in scoring defense and give up the eighth-fewest yards per game. They can hold up at the point of attack against Baltimore especially with the Ravens down to a bunch of back-up, or over-the-hill, running backs. Cincinnati has held their last five opponents to an average of 16.8 points. Lamar Jackson is having an MVP-quality season. However, he's mostly gone against weak-to-mediocre defenses. The Bengals are the best defense he's seen.
10-24-21	Falcons v. Dolphins OVER 47.5		30-28	Win	100	64 h 2 m	Show
There's some below-the-radar stuff that lends this matchup to a sneaky Over play. Let's start with the Falcons. Matt Ryan has picked up Arthur Smith's offense and picked up his game. He's completed 71 percent of his passes the last four games throwing 10 TD's during this span. Smith, an offensive guru, has had two weeks to game plan with the Falcons being idle last week. Star wide receiver Calvin Ridley is back. Kyle Pitts had his coming out party during the Falcons' last game, catching nine passes for 119 yards and a TD in a 27-20 win against the Jets. The Dolphins' secondary hasn't lived up to expectations with star cornerbacks Xavien Howard and Byron Jones both being out. They are questionable for this game. Miami ranks in the bottom-four in points given up, yards allowed and pass defense. The Falcons rank in the top 10, too, in pace. Now the Dolphins. Miami's season numbers are skewed because of Jacoby Brissett's substandard play when Tua Tagovailoa was out with injured ribs. Tagovailoa returned last week against the Jaguars and threw for 351 yards and two TD's. He's a clear upgrade on Brissett. Tagovailoa has upgraded wide receiving weapons from a year ago and won't lack motivation to prove himself with Deshaun Watson rumors again floating around. The Dolphins play at the sixth-fasted pace, too. Miami's biggest weakness is its offensive line. Atlanta, though, lacks a pass rush. The Falcons surrender the second-most points per game at 29.6 and have only three takeaways.
10-17-21	Cardinals v. Browns UNDER 50.5	Top	37-14	Loss	-110	120 h 55 m	Show
The Browns' defense isn't elite, but they are much better than how they looked last week in giving up 47 points to a hot Justin Herbert and Chargers' offense. Cleveland had surrendered just 33 combined points in its previous three games. Kyler Murray took a beating against the 49ers last week. The Cardinals are heading into a different climate away from their desert. The forecast is for wind in the 20-to-30 mph range. Neither team plays fast. The Browns are heavily run-oriented. They rank 29th in pace. The Cardinals are in the bottom nine in tempo.
10-17-21	Bengals v. Lions UNDER 47.5		34-11	Win	100	67 h 38 m	Show
The Bengals are much improved defensively. They held the Packers to 22 points during regulation last week and have surrendered an average of 18.2 points during their last four games. Cincinnati gets to step way down in class to face the punchless Lions. Detroit didn't have much going - and that was before getting struck with massive injuries. Frank Ragnow, a very good center, is out. So is Quintez Cephus, who had emerged as Detroit's top wide receiver. Tyrell Williams, maybe Detroit's second best wideout, is out, too. Not helping matters are the struggles of rookie left tackle Penei Sewell. The result has been Jared Goff averaging an embarrassing 6.6 yards pass attempt, while continuing to show off his inaccuracy and lack of any big-play ability. Goff isn't helped by having the worst wide receiving corps in the NFL. Detroit is averaging 16.2 points in its last four games. The Lions reflect their coach, blue collar Dan Campbell. They are grinders. Their defense doesn't have any playmakers, but can be counted on to provide a strong effort reflective of their coach. Detroit has held its last three foes - Ravens, Bears and Vikings - to 20.6 points a game. That figure would be even lower but the Ravens and Vikings kicked long field goals at the gun to take away two wins from the Lions. The Bengals have a below average offensive line and skill position injuries. Joe Mixon is dealing with an ankle injury. His backup, Samaje Perine, is on the COVID list. Joe Burrow is playing on a surgically repaired left knee and was having trouble talking after getting hit in the throat last week.
10-17-21	Packers v. Bears UNDER 44.5		24-14	Win	100	66 h 24 m	Show
So far the Packers aren't the offensive powerhouse of a year ago. Left tackle David Bakhitari remains out and Elgton Jenkins, Green Bay's second best offensive lineman and most versatile, is questionable having missed the past couple of games. The Bears have shown a resurgency on defense. Khalil Mack and Robert Quinn are putting forth a strong pass rush and veteran linebacker Danny Trevathan is back playing, bolstering a strong crew. Chicago ranks eighth in fewest points and yards allowed. The Packers have been getting A.J. Dillon more involved in the offense. That's a plus for the Under as Dillon is a plodding north/south runner who keeps the clock moving with little threat of breaking off a big run. The Bears have become ultra-conservative with Justin Fields after the Browns held them to only 47 yards. Fields is averaging fewer than 20 throws and only three rushing attempts during his last three games. David Montgomery and Allen Robinson are the Bears' two best weapons. Montgomery is out with a knee injury and the Andy Dalton/Fields quarterback situation has rendered Robinson nearly a non-entity. He hasn't had more than 63 receiving yards in his last seven games, nor has he scored a TD.
10-10-21	Browns v. Chargers OVER 46.5		42-47	Win	100	90 h 36 m	Show
The Browns' strength is running the ball with their great 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Cleveland ranks first in rushing averaging 177 yards on the ground. The Chargers rank 29th in run defense and lost inside linebacker Kenneth Murray and defensive tackle Justin Jones to injuries further eroding their rush defense. The Chargers' strength is passing. Justin Herbert can hurt a Cleveland secondary. Herbert is hot with a 7-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last two games. The Browns' defense is improved, but they've been fortunate to go against weak offensive lines in their last three games facing the Texans, Bears and Vikings. This is a clear-cut case of strength versus strength and the total is low enough to get involved.
10-10-21	Lions v. Vikings UNDER 49.5		17-19	Win	100	68 h 11 m	Show
The Under has cashed seven the last eight times in this series. I expect that trend to continue here given this NFC North Division rivalry and the Lions' offensive woes. The Lions are averaging 16 points during their last three games. They are going to be without perhaps their two best offensive linemen with left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow out with injuries. A third offensive line starter, Penei Sewell, isn't likely to play either for Detroit because of an ankle injury. Sparked by a rejuvenated Danielle Hunter, the Vikings are averaging 3.2 sacks per game. The Lions have discovered first-hand what Sean McVay knew that Jared Goff is merely a game manager. The Vikings' secondary can handle Goff and a Detroit wide receiving corps that is the worst in the league. Detroit doesn't have a good defense. But the Lions play hard for Dan Campbell - at least so far. The Vikings' offense becomes more ground-and-pound when Dalvin Cook isn't fully in the lineup, which he hasn't been for the past two games. He's been slowed by an ankle injury.
10-07-21	Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 54.5	Top	26-17	Win	100	26 h 2 m	Show
Even in today's NFL where the rules are greatly skewed toward offense, a lot has to go right for this many points to be scored. I don't see the Rams-Seahawks combining for this many points on a short week where game-planning is condensed. The Rams' defense appears down from last season. That's not a surprise. After all, they ranked No. 1 defensively last year and their star defensive coordinator, Brandon Stanley, is now the Chargers' head coach. Raheem Morris is LA's third defensive coordinator in three years. He's a downgrade from Stanley. Having said that, though, the Rams still had held their last 17 regular season opponents under 30 points until losing, 37-20, to the explosive Cardinals this past Sunday. The Rams have Aaron Donald and cornerback Jalen Ramsey, arguably the best players at their respective positions. The Seahawks' mediocre offensive line has had a great degree of difficulty dealing with Donald. The teams met three times last season. The Rams held the Seahawks to an average of 15 points and 301 yards. Russell Wilson is putting together another fantastic season. Seattle, however, ranks 29th in third down yardage. Wilson has the second-highest sack rate on third down, too, behind only the Texans' overmatched rookie QB Davis Mills. So the Seahawks will have to do much of their damage on their first two downs. The Rams were held to a season-low 20 points against Arizona. LA's final TD came in garbage time, too. Darrell Henderson looked good after missing the previous week with a rib injury. Sean McVay realizes he may have abandoned his ground attack too early against the Cardinals. So the Rams could be running more than usual plus McVay wants to keep the ball out of Wilson's hands. That's a plus for the Under.
10-03-21	Lions v. Bears UNDER 42		14-24	Win	100	65 h 31 m	Show
The Bears defense, particularly Khalil Mack, is back playing at a high level. Chicago's defense should encounter little trouble from a Lions attack that has the worst wide receivers in the NFL and a mediocre QB in Jared Goff. The Lions are 0-3, but have shown tremendous effort under fiery Dan Campbell. If it weren't for a record 66-yard field goal by Justin Tucker, the Lions would have held the Ravens to 16 points. I doubt Andy Dalton is able to play this week. So Justin Fields is in line to make his second NFL start. He's not ready for that role yet as the Browns clearly showed last week holding Chicago to 47 yards on 42 plays. The Bears rank last in yards gained and are second-to-last in scoring.
09-26-21	Dolphins v. Raiders UNDER 44		28-31	Loss	-109	38 h 2 m	Show
The Dolphins just may have the worst offensive line in the NFL. It's a major reason why they rate last in scoring with just 17 points on the season and yards per play. I don't see Miami putting up many points against a Raiders defense that ranks No. 2 in quarterback hits and is going with backup Jacoby Brissett, who is not an accurate passer and holds the ball too long. This will be Brisset's first start in two years. Miami does have a strong defense. The Dolphins have one of the best cornerback tandems in the league and their defensive front ranks eighth in quarterback pressure. The Raiders have been one-dimensional on offense without the running of Josh Jacobs, who isn't likely to play again due to an ankle injury. The Raiders are down two of their starting offensive linemen. Derek Carr is likely to be throwing a lot of short passes. Carr needs to be careful because the Dolphins have produced at least one takeaway in 24 consecutive games, the longest streak in the NFL.
09-26-21	Saints v. Patriots UNDER 42.5		28-13	Win	100	35 h 59 m	Show
Drew Brees versus Tom Brady. Not anymore. Instead we have erratic Jameis Winston against rookie Mac Jones. Neither offensive line is playing well either. Sean Payton is going to take it easy with Winston knowing he's facing defensive guru Bill Belichick and a ball-hawking New England secondary. The Patriots have five takeaways in two games and have held opponents to under 300 yards a game. Belichick is keeping things ultra conservative for Jones, who lacks explosive weapons. The Saints are stout against the run and their secondary is bolstered by the return of their best cornerback, Marshon Lattimore.
09-23-21	Panthers v. Texans UNDER 44	Top	24-9	Win	100	77 h 30 m	Show
I'm expecting rookie QB Davis Mills to get the start for the Texans. That's certainly not a plus for Houston as Mills isn't nearly ready to start a regular season NFL game. The Panthers have a lot of young defensive talent with Brian Burns, Jeremy Chinn, Shaq Thompson and Haason Reddick. They dominated rookie Zach Wilson in Week 1 and made Jameis Winston look terrible this past Sunday. The Texans are going to go as basic as possible with Mills. This is a very winnable road game for the Panthers. So I don't envision Matt Ruhle doing anything fancy on offense. Sam Darnold is far from trustworthy at this early stage of his Carolina career. A conservative, defensive-minded contest should produce a total far below this total.
09-20-21	Lions v. Packers OVER 48		17-35	Win	100	140 h 29 m	Show
This total opened short considering how weak the Lions are defensively and how potent the Packers' offense is. One flat performance to start the season by the Packers shouldn't negate that Green Bay led the NFL in scoring last year at 31.8 points. The Packers didn't play Aaron Rodgers and some of their key skill position players during preseason and the rustiness showed on opening week. The Packers have their skill position stars back and their offensive line remains above average. Rodgers should have no problem taking advantage of a Detroit defense full of holes. The Lions can't pressure the quarterback, nor cover very well. They also have slow linebackers. Green Bay should come close to covering this total itself. The Lions should contribute, too, to the total going Over. Green Bay's defense looked terrible opening week under new defensive coordinator Joe Barry. The Lions have a solid offensive line and two good running backs with D'Andre Swift and former Packer Jamaal Williams. T.J. Hockenson is emerging as a tight end force.
09-19-21	Chiefs v. Ravens UNDER 54.5		35-36	Loss	-106	31 h 15 m	Show
This is a very big total. Certainly superstar QB's Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson are capable of producing huge scores. But a lot has to go right to buck this large of a total. The Ravens run a lot. Even without their two top running backs, injured J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards, their game plan is going to remain the same - stay on the ground to keep the ball away from the deadly Mahomes. The Ravens are ground-oriented. That's who they are. Lead running back Ty'son Williams is untested. Latavius Murray is a straight-ahead runner perfect for the Under. Recently signed veterans Le'Veon Bell and Devonta Freeman are both washed-up. The Chiefs' defense gets reinforced this week with the expected return of star safety Tyrann Mathieu and respected pass rusher Frank Clark. The Ravens' offensive line gave up a lot of pressures and three sacks against the Raiders last Monday. Chris Jones is an elite pass rusher who the Ravens have to game plan against. The Chiefs' have a new offensive line with three first-year starters. The strength of that line are veterans Orlando Brown Jr. and Joe Thuney. Brown and Thuney are better run blockers than pass protectors. So the Chiefs could be running more than usual especially if they build up a big lead.
09-19-21	Patriots v. Jets UNDER 42.5		25-6	Win	100	94 h 39 m	Show
The Jets averaged an NFL-low 15.2 points last year. They managed just 14 points against the Panthers opening week. New England has a better defense than Carolina and the Jets had their best offensive lineman, Mekhi Becton, against the Panthers. Becton was injured in that game and won't play here. The Jets still can't run the ball, nor protect their quarterback. Bill Belichick is a master defensive strategist. He is 9-1 the past 10 times when going against a rookie QB. This doesn't bode well for Zach Wilson. The Jets figure to have a simple game plan. The Patriots aren't going to do anything fancy either in rookie Mac Jones' first road game. So expect a lot of running and short passing. Neither team has a stud running back.
09-12-21	Bears v. Rams UNDER 46		14-34	Loss	-104	126 h 31 m	Show
The Bears don't have the dominant defense of several years ago. Still, their defense is respectable if not above average. Chicago's problem isn't defense. The Bears offense isn't going to show any life until they make the QB switch to rookie Justin Fields. Veteran Andy Dalton last was decent five years ago. So I don't see the Bears producing many points with Dalton and an offensive line that appears weaker than last season. Chicago is banking on 39-year-old Jason Peters bailing out its offensive line. There's a far greater chance of Aaron Donald, the premier defensive lineman in the NFC, causing huge problems. Allen Robinson is Chicago's lone strong weapon. Rams superstar cornerback Jalen Ramsey should handle Robinson leaving over-the-hill Dalton devoid of skill position talent around him, which he needs to have for any success. The Bears and Rams have met each of the last three seasons. The scores were 24-10, 17-7 and 15-6. None came close to going Over. This one shouldn't either.
09-12-21	Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 44		17-16	Win	100	123 h 1 m	Show
There were a combined 32 and 34 points scored in the two meetings last season between these teams. Expect a similar low-scoring matchup this time, too. The Dolphins added some enticing big-play weapons, but are basically a conservative team as Tua Tagovalioa remains largely untested and untrustworthy in his second season for Miami to feature a wide open offense. The Dolphins will be without deep threat, Will Fuller, in this game. He's suspended. The Patriots have upgraded their defensive front seven, adding a lot of size and playmaking linebackers. Miami has a below-average offensive line. Bill Belichick is a master at defensive game-planning. He has had ample time to prepare for the inexperienced Tagovailoa. Dolphins coach Brian Flores, formerly an assistant under Belichick, knows this. New England is a run-first team starting a rookie QB, Mac Jones. The Patriots' offense lacks any explosion. So the Patriots are likely to be vanilla, too, relying on their defense and playing for field position. Miami has excellent cornerbacks. I highly doubt Jones tests them. Instead he'll be conservative going with the run and short passes.
09-12-21	Cardinals v. Titans OVER 52		38-13	Loss	-109	119 h 1 m	Show
Given their offensive prowess and weak defense, the Titans are going to be involved in a lot of shootouts this season. This should be one of them. The Cardinals averaged just a shade under 29 points during their first 10 games last season before Kyler Murray got banged-up. Murray is back healthy. The Cardinals' offensive line is improved and rookie Rondale Moore adds to Murray's weapons arsenal. The Titans not only have the reigning two-time rushing champion in Derrick Henry, but added Julio Jones to go with A.J. Brown, who I consider a top-seven wide receiver. The Cardinals are inexperienced and vulnerable at the cornerback spots. Ryan Tannehill should produce a big game against this vulnerable secondary.
02-07-21	Chiefs v. Bucs UNDER 56.5	Top	9-31	Win	100	182 h 31 m	Show
The Super Bowl is the one NFL game where public money outweighs sharp money. The public almost always bets Over especially on marquee matchups such as this one. The oddsmaker knows that. So I see value on the Under. Much is being made of the Buccaneers being the home team because the game is being played at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. But as far as the total is concerned that venue is a plus for the Under. It's an outdoor stadium with a grass field. So it's not a fast surface. The two teams met there this past Nov. 29 and the Chiefs won, 27-24, for a combined final score of 51 points. Patrick Mahomes is the most feared QB in football. Tyreek Hill is the most dangerous wideout. Travis Kelce the best tight end. I acknowledge all of that. But it's difficult to produce big points against a very good defense without a decent running attack. I don't see the Chiefs being able to run on Tampa Bay. No team could during the season. The Buccaneers had the No. 1 rush defense in the NFL. The return of star nose tackle Vita Vea has only strengthened that unit. Clyde Edwards-Helaire hasn't looked good after being out with hip and ankle injuries. Le'Veon Bell doesn't have much left and he missed the AFC title game due to a sore knee. This puts nearly the entire onus on Mahomes. He's being asked to put up four-to-five touchdowns - as you need TD's not field goals to get above this high of a total - with a lackluster ground attack, facing a strong defense and without his starting offensive tackles. Right tackle Mitchell Schwartz was put on injured reserve in Week 11 and left tackle Eric Fisher suffered a season-ending Achilles tendon injury in the AFC title game. Mahomes was brilliant in the title game victory versus Buffalo. However, he was merely a mortal in his previous five games with an 8-to-5 touchdown-to-turnover ratio. Mahomes hasn't faced an insider linebacker duo the caliber of Lavonte David and Devin White. These guys can not only effectively blitz, but also cover well. The Buccaneers also have two tremendous edge pass rushers, Shaquill Barrett and Jason Pierre-Paul. Those two have combined for 45 1/2 sacks during the past two seasons. The Buccaneers have a solid secondary, too. Safety Antoine Winfield Jr. showed star ability in his rookie season. Cornerback Carlton Davis shut down Michael Thomas and held Davonte Adams to 67 receiving yards during Tampa Bay's last two games. Todd Bowles is an elite defensive coordinator. He gave Aaron Rodgers more trouble than any other defensive coordinator this season. Bowles is aggressive, but also shrewd. The Buccaneers can pick their spots blitzing - which is dangerous against Mahomes - because Barrett and Pierre-Paul are such good pass rushers and the Chiefs are minus their two best offensive tackles. I envision the Buccaneers being conservative on offense using more running plays than expected. Both Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones are healthy. They are good players for Under bettors because they are inside runners who are more reliable than flashy. The Chiefs have a bend-but-don't-break defense. Many of their defensive statistics were below average. But they are above average in the category that matters most - points allowed. Only nine teams gave up fewer points per game than Kansas City, which allowed 22.6. Chris Jones and Frank Clark give the Chiefs two good pass rushers. Safety play is huge versus Tom Brady. Kansas City is covered there, too. The Chiefs are deep at safety. Tyrann Mathieu and Juan Thornhill are both excellent. Mathieu has the most interceptions of any safety during the past two years. Here are some prop bet recommendations. Obviously best to shop because numbers and prices vary. Most of these props are courtesy of the Westgate sports book. Under 10 1/2 Accepted Penalties Accepted offensive penalties were the lowest in the NFL since the modern 32-team era. There seems to be an unwritten mandate from the league to officials to cut back on penalties. Few penalties are likely going to be called in the Super Bowl. The league doesn't want their showcase game to be littered with yellow flags. There were just six penalties accessed in the NFC title game. Tampa Bay had only two. There were seven penalties marked off in the AFC championship game with Kansas City accounting for just three. During the 12 postseason games, there were 10 or fewer penalties in nine of the games. That's 75 percent. The Buccaneers had 12 penalties in their three playoffs games for an average of four. The Buccaneers were tied for 20th in penalties during the regular season. The Chiefs had the fourth-most penalties during the regular season. That's a big reason why this penalty total prop is at double-digits. However, the Chiefs had just three penalties marked against them in their AFC title win against Buffalo. You could see in the title games that official's were only calling obvious fouls. They were letting a lot of physical defensive play, such as holding and grabbing, go especially in the Buccaneers-Packers game. I don't see why that would change for the biggest game of them all. Cameron Brate Under 26 1/2 receiving yards Brate is a short-yardage, red zone target. I don't see Tom Brady looking for Brate outside the red zone when he has Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Leonard Fournette out of the backfield and fellow tight end Rob Gronkowski to throw to. This doesn't leave room for Brate. Tyrann Mathieu Over 4 1/2 assisted/solo tackles Mathieu is one of the most productive safeties and he figures to be plenty busy. He's a defensive centerpiece, similar in chess terms to a queen. I wouldn't be surprised if he had more than four solo tackles. When you add assists, it's a no-brainer for me. Ronald Jones Over 34 1/2 rushing yards I believe the Buccaneers are going to run more than some expect in order to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field for as long as possible. Leonard Fournette has the higher rushing Over/Under yardage figure, but Jones is Tampa Bay's best running back in my view. Jones had a breakthrough season rushing for 978 yards. He averaged 5.1 yards per carry, which was the eighth-highest in the league. Fournette is going to get carries, but so is Jones. Most Valuable Player I'd make a pizza wager on linebacker Devin White at 40-1. I like the Under so a lower-scoring game than expected and a Tampa Bay victory could put White in contention. I do a Rotisserie-style fantasy football league in which tackles and sacks are separate categories. So I can tell you White is just a tremendous talent since I've watched him closely. He piles up tackles and gets sacks, too. There is recent precedent for defensive players winning Super Bowl MVP honors. It's happened twice in the last seven seasons with Malcolm Smith doing it and Von Miller achieving the feat five seasons ago.
01-24-21	Bucs v. Packers OVER 51.5		31-26	Win	100	50 h 51 m	Show
I'm expecting a shootout. These team's offenses trump their defenses. Tampa Bay produced 38 points on the Packers in their Week 6 matchup - and its offense has gotten better and more diversified since then. Tom Brady has the savvy and weapons to take advantage of the Packers' inexperienced linebackers and lack of depth in the secondary. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette not only provide Brady with reliable short-yardage running backs, but they set him up well for play-action. Green Bay doesn't have enough quality defensive backs to handle Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Rob Gronkowski. The Packers also have extremely weak punt coverage so the Buccaneers should be operating in good field position. Not that the Buccaneers are going to be receiving many punts because I also see the Packers producing far more points than the 10 they managed in their 38-10 Week 6 loss to Tampa Bay. Green Bay led the NFL in scoring. That Week 6 game was the only time their offense was held in check. Aaron Rodgers is as great mentally as he is physically. The Packers have made many adjustments since that loss. Their offense is in peak form. The Buccaneers love to blitz. That's the signature of their aggressive defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Rodgers is a master at reading the blitz. It's actually good for Rodgers that he's played the Bucs this season. He'll know what to expect. Green Bay's offensive line is playing better since that game even without injured star left tackle David Bakhitari. Blitzing isn't going to hide the Buccaneers' warts in their secondary that Rodgers will expose. The Packers took apart the Rams' No. 1 defense last week. Green Bay's offense is too in sync to be slowed down at this late stage especially given the Hall of Fame form Rodgers is in now.
01-16-21	Ravens v. Bills OVER 50	Top	3-17	Loss	-110	113 h 17 m	Show
Lamar Jackson is back in MVP form. Josh Allen has become a top-five caliber quarterback. Offense is going to trump defense in this matchup. Baltimore closed the regular-season averaging 37 points and 430 yards of total offense during its last five games. Jackson accounted for 15 TD's and 1,200 yards of total offense with a 110.6 passer rating during this span. The Ravens are the No. 1 rushing team in the NFL. J.K. Dobbins and Jackson will be the two best runners on the field. Buffalo ranked 17th in run defense. The Bills gave up 472 yards to the Colts last week. Their defense was on the field for nearly 35 minutes. Buffalo was fortunate the Colts didn't produce more than 24 points. They were inches away from doing that. The Ravens average more points per game than the Colts. The last time the Bills faced a dual threat QB anywhere near the caliber of Jackson was against the Cardinals back in mid-November when Kyler Murray put up 32 points against them. Jackson is superior to Murray. It wouldn't surprise if the Bills defense melted down in the fourth quarter from constant pounding. The Ravens' defense was highly impressive in dispatching the Titans, 20-13, last week. Baltimore's defensive strengths matched up well to Tennessee. It also was the third time Baltimore and Tennessee had met in one calendar year. So the Ravens had a great deal of familiarity with the Titans. Baltimore is not so well acquainted with Buffalo. Allen isn't the inconsistent, inaccurate quarterback he was during his first two years in the league. He broke out in a major way during his third season accounting for 45 touchdowns while breaking many of Buffalo's team passing records. The Bills broke their franchise scoring record by 43 points producing 501 points. The Bills are the opposite of the Ravens in that they set up the run by passing - if they even want to bother running. The Ravens like to blitz. They put a lot of trust in their cornerbacks. Buffalo is a dangerous matchup for them because of Allen's tremendous mobility and receiving targets - Stefon Diggs, Cole Beasley, John Brown and emerging Gabriel Davis. Each of these wideouts brings something to the table. Diggs has been unstoppable this season. Beasley is a reliable move-the-chains target. Brown is a deep threat. Davis has caught six passes for 192 yards during the last two games. Buffalo weather in January can be tricky. But the forecast is calling for temperatures in the low 30s with 10-12 mph wind. So the weather shouldn't be a hindrance to the total.
01-09-21	Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 45	Top	31-23	Loss	-115	54 h 56 m	Show
Alex Smith and Ron Rivera are great stories. This doesn't hide the fact, though, Washington is one of the worst offensive teams ever to make the playoffs. Washington hasn't broken the 23-point barrier during its last seven games. Only two teams averaged fewer yards per game than Washington, which is averaging 16 points the past three weeks. Until throwing two TD passes against the Eagles this past Sunday night, Smith hadn't thrown more than 1 TD pass in a game all season. Smith is a heady veteran. But he is and always has been a game manager. He also is limited by a calf injury so his mobility - one of the few pluses to his game - is going to be restricted. It's enough of a concern that Rivera has said Taylor Heinicke could see some action. Heinicke is a fourth-stringer who shouldn't even be on an NFL roster. Smith has always needed weapons around him. Washington doesn't have many. Its two best are WR Terry McLaurin, who is fighting through a high ankle sprain, and RB Antonio Gibson, who isn't 100 percent due to a toe injury. Tampa Bay finished second in run defense last season. They were No. 1 this season against the run. The Buccaneers' pass rush and secondary will be up to full strength if Devin White, one of the best linebackers in football, Shaquil Barrett and cornerback Carlton Davis all return. I think they all will, but even if they don't Washington isn't going to produce many points because of Tampa Bay's defensive depth and aggressive schemes of ace defensive coordinator Todd Bowles. Washington is worthy of respect strictly because of its defense, which gave up the second-fewest yards and fourth-fewest points. Washington also was second in pass defense. Washington has the pass rushers to bother Tom Brady, who did not fare well when he went up against better defenses this season. No team has scored more than 20 points against Washington during the last seven games.
01-03-21	Washington Football Team v. Eagles UNDER 44		20-14	Win	100	30 h 16 m	Show
The task for Washington is simple. Beat the 4-10-1 Eagles and Washington is in the playoffs. Washington has a top-five defense, but a weak offense with injuries to its best skill position players. So a conservative game plan of playing not to lose is justified in this instance for Washington. Jalen Hurts has been an improvement on shell-shocked Carson Wentz. Opponents, though, by now have plenty of game film on Hurts. He remains largely untested as a passer. The Eagles are going to be without their best offensive player, Miles Sanders. Deep threat DeSean Jackson also is out. So is Dallas Goedert, who has been their best tight end. Need I mention the Eagles long ago lost all of their best offensive linemen. I definitely see Washington's defensive line winning the battle of the trenches. On the Washington skill position side, Alex Smith, Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin are all questionable. That's Washington's best QB, RB and WR. All three would be limited if they were to play, especially McLaurin and Smith. The depleted Eagles secondary is vulnerable. Smith always has been a game-manager, though. If Smith can't play because of a calf injury than Taylor Heinicke would be under center for Washington. Heinicke makes Smith look like Brett Favre. Philadelphia has one of the better defensive coordinators in Jim Schwartz. The Eagles will be up for this home contest, which is the nationally televised Sunday Night Game. This is their Super Bowl for what has been a hugely disappointing season. Lots of running and short, safe passes should keep the clock moving in what I anticipate to be a highly-intense defensive battle played in the rain.
01-03-21	Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 50		14-28	Win	100	34 h 47 m	Show
The Colts defense isn't the elite unit it was earlier this season when they opened against five out of six mediocre-to-bad offenses. Their two major defensive statistics have shrunk from top-three to No. 8 in total yards and 12th in scoring defense. That's what can happen when during the last six games you've faced Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Deshaun Watson (twice), Derek Carr and Ben Roethlisberger. Now, though, the Colts draw the Jaguars. Jacksonville is averaging 13.6 points in its last three games going against the Titans, Ravens and Bears. I believe Gardner Minshew is Jacksonville's best QB. Doug Marrone disagrees. He's starting immobile journeyman Mike Glennon, who has done nothing to change the perception that he's strictly backup material - and that of the third-string kind. Glennon has a passer rating of just 75.4. He's averaging a paltry 5.9 yards per attempt and has as many interceptions as TD throws. Glennon would be hard-pressed to produce many points against a solid Colts defense if he had decent weapons - but he doesn't. The Jaguars will be without their star rookie running back James Robinson, their best wide receiver, D.J. Chark, and deep threat Collin Johnson. The Colts rank second in run defense, bad news for Jacksonville backup RB Dare Ogunbowale. The Colts are third in forced turnovers with 24. The Jaguars rank 27th in protecting the football having committed 24 turnovers. It's not so easy making the case against the Colts offense. I will say the Jaguars usually give an effort on defense. They do try. Joe Schobert and Myles Jack are excellent linebackers. But the main reason I don't believe the Colts are going to score a ton of points is game script. They won't need to. Indy shouldn't be threatened in this game. The Colts don't need to open things up, or play at a fast tempo. They can take advantage of Jacksonville's 30th-ranked run defense by riding workhorse Jonathan Taylor, who has averaged 20.3 carries in his last five games. Taylor is very good for the Under because he's a between-the-tackles power runner. The Colts lost star offensive left tackle Anthony Castonzo to an ankle injury. This is bad news for 39-year-old Philip Rivers, who never was mobile even in his youth. The Colts surrendered 11 sacks in 749 snaps when Castonzo has been in the lineup. They've allowed 10 sacks in 274 snaps without Castonzo. So there's no reason for the Colts - with their season on the line - to take chances against an overmatched opponent when they can just ride Taylor while milking the clock.
01-03-21	Raiders v. Broncos OVER 51		32-31	Win	100	33 h 20 m	Show
I'm eagerly anticipating a no-pressure, let-it-all hang out shootout between two bad defensive teams in this Las Vegas-Denver meaningless finale. Unpredictable January Denver weather won't be a spoiler to the offensive fireworks as the forecast is for temperatures in the high 40s with very little wind. Jon Gruden hasn't been able to solve the Raiders' defensive woes since coming back as their coach three seasons ago. The Raiders were horrible again on defense this season ranking 29th in scoring defense. They've allowed 34.2 points per game in their last six games. If you discount a bad weather game in Cleveland where the wind made it nearly impossible to pass, the Raiders have permitted at least 26 points in 11 of their last 12 games. Denver's defensive woes have been a far greater surprise. The Broncos haven't given up this many points in 10 years. A combination of a cluster injury problem in the defensive line and the offense committing the most turnovers in the league by a large margin have mainly been responsible for this. The Broncos aren't going anywhere until they find out if Drew Lock is their QB answer. Right now Lock hasn't shown he is. But what I like about Lock is he's not content to be a game-manager. He attacks and he has decent weapons with Melvin Gordon, Jerry Jeudy and Noah Fant. This could prove to be a pivotal game in Lock's career and the Broncos' franchise. Lock has a golden opportunity here against a bottom-five defense.
12-27-20	Titans v. Packers UNDER 54		14-40	Push	0	11 h 19 m	Show
Sure on paper this game shapes up to be high-scoring. The Titans lead the NFL averaging 31.1 points per game. The Packers are right next to them averaging 31 points. But there is more than just statistics at work here starting with the weather. There is a 90 percent chance of snow. Temperatures for this night game are going to be in the high teens and the wind will be blowing at 10-to-20 mph. Those are far from plus conditions for quarterbacks especially for warm-weather QB Ryan Tannehill. The Titans figure to stay on the ground a lot as Green Bay's run defense is worse than its pass defense. That's going to eat a lot of clock. The Packers' defense has been much better at home. Green Bay has held its seven home opponents to an average of 20.2 points a game. Green Bay could manage just three points on a 51-yard field goal by Mason Crosby in the second half of its game against Carolina last week. The Packers figure to run the ball more than normal, too, considering the conditions. Plodding rookie running back AJ Dillon could see his first extended action with Jamaal Williams doubtful due to a quad injury. That would be an added bonus for the Under.
12-25-20	Vikings v. Saints OVER 50	Top	33-52	Win	100	36 h 33 m	Show
Quarterbacks usually get the most attention. But this matchup features the two best all-purpose running backs in the NFL, Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara. The Vikings have racked up at least 27 points in six of their last eight games. Only four teams have produced more yards than Minnesota. New Orleans' defense has seen some slippage during the last two weeks. The Saints' defense also carries a heavy fatigue rating. They were on the field for a staggering 98 snaps against the Chiefs last Sunday. They catch a bad break that this game is on Friday afternoon giving them much less rest time. The Saints are going to get their points against a ravaged Vikings defense that showed nine players on the injury report. Minnesota's best defensive player, linebacker Eric Kendricks, is expected to miss his third straight game because of a lingering calf injury. A decimated defensive line, linebacker injuries and inexperienced cornerbacks have caused a steep decline in the Vikings' defense this season. Minnesota just surrendered 33 points to a Mitch Trubisky-led Bears offense last week. The Vikings dealt the Saints brutal playoff losses in two of the last three seasons. So Sean Payton won't be adverse to running up a score if the Saints should break way ahead. Drew Brees should also be far more effective having gotten the rust off last week. Playing on carpet inside a dome is another plus for the Over.
12-20-20	Bears v. Vikings OVER 46.5		33-27	Win	100	99 h 49 m	Show
Kirk Cousins has played extremely well during his last seven games completing 69.8 percent of his passes, throwing for 1,823 yards, averaging 8.1 yards per attempt and tossing 16 TD passes with just two interceptions during this span. The Bears' defense has regressed. Their secondary isn't nearly as good as it was earlier in the season. Meanwhile the Bears' offense has looked good the past two games since Mitchell Trubisky came back. David Montgomery is playing his finest ball averaging 7.4 yards a carry during his last three games. Trubisky has Montgomery to rely on and an underrated receiving corps headed by the superb Allen Robinson. The Vikings have given up 26 TD passes, fifth-most in the NFL, and they have the eighth fewest sacks. So Trubisky should have continued success. Playing indoors on carpet should just enhance these two hot offenses.
12-17-20	Chargers v. Raiders OVER 53	Top	30-27	Win	100	19 h 39 m	Show
I'm expecting an entertaining shootout in this matchup. The Chargers' defense hasn't lived up to expectations. LA ranks 26th in scoring defense giving up 27.8 points. Losing star safety Derwin James before the season was a cruel blow to the Chargers' secondary, which hasn't been helped by cornerback Casey Hayward having a terrible season. Derek Carr finally has gotten comfortable in Jon Gruden's complicated offense producing his finest season. The Raiders have an above average offense. They have scored at least 31 points in more than half of their games. This includes a 31-26 victory against the Chargers on Nov. 8. That game produced 57 points and came close to putting up a combined 63 points because a 4-yard Chargers TD pass on the final play was reversed on replay. The Raiders' offensive line is healthy again. Tackle Trent Brown can keep Joey Bosa from bothering Carr. Rod Marinelli is the Raiders' new defensive coordinator after Gruden fired Paul Guenther Sunday night. I like Marinelli more as a defensive line coach rather than coordinator. He catches a bad break that his first game as coordinator falls on a short week and the Raiders will be down four defensive starters - strong safety Johnathan Abram, linebacker Nicholas Morrow, lineman Clelin Ferrell and cornerback Damon Arnette. Morrow has been the Raiders' best defensive player the past few weeks. Abram is a far-ranging safety and an emotional leader. Only two teams permit more points per game than the Raiders, who surrender 30.1. Las Vegas ranks 25th in total defense and has only 15 sacks in 13 games. Justin Herbert should be able to do a lot of damage with a clean pocket and passing against an extremely banged-up secondary that also is missing starting safety Jeff Heath. He went on injured reserve last week due to a concussion. I expect Keenan Allen and Austi Ekeler to play. Their injuries are not serious. Herbert has the talent, weapons and weak opposing defense to have a huge game.
12-10-20	Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45.5	Top	3-24	Win	100	31 h 10 m	Show
No coach is better at specific defensive game-planning than Bill Belichick. The Rams found that out the hard way when they lost 13-3 to the Patriots two seasons ago in the Super Bowl. The Rams averaged 32.9 points during the regular season that year. Jared Goff is a quarterback who doesn't keep Belichick awake at night. Belichick's schemes completely stymied Goff, who enters this matchup averaging two turnovers per game during his last five games. New England has shown plenty of defense the past two weeks holding Arizona to 17 points and shutting out the Chargers. The Patriots held Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert to a combined 4.4 yards per pass attempt, one touchdown pass with four interceptions and five sacks. The Rams rank in the top-five in all of the major defensive categories, giving up the second-fewest yards. The Patriots have failed to break 21 points in six of their last nine games. The Patriots rely heavily on their ground game. They have played ultra-conservative this season because of lack of firepower. Cam Newton never was a highly accurate passer and his throwing has regressed. The Rams rank third in run defense. They also give up the fewest 20-plus yards completion so don't look for many big plays from New England.
12-06-20	Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47.5		17-12	Win	100	60 h 9 m	Show
Don't judge this total by full season statistics. Go by current form. Sparked by the return of star safety Jamal Adams, the Seahawks have held their last three opponents to an average of 20.3 points after surrendering an average of 30.4 points during the first eight games. The Giants rank 30th in scoring at 19.5 points and 29th in yards gained - and that was with Daniel Jones. Now they have backup QB Colt McCoy, a heady journeyman with a weak arm and a deserved reputation as nothing more than a dink-and-dunk game-manager. The Giants have been running more than they were earlier in the season. They've played at the fifth-slowest pace of any team during November. Seattle has been playing even slower ranking last in tempo during the past two weeks. The Seahawks have gone back to being a ground-and-pound team instead of letting Russell Wilson throw at will. Pete Carroll has returned to this old way to give cover to his defense and protect Wilson, who has been taking a pounding being sacked 16 times during the last four games. The Seahawks' offense has produced six TD's during the last three games after scoring four or more TD's in each of their first eight games. The Giants defense is greatly improved. New York has held its last six foes to an average of 20 points. The Under has cashed in five of those six games. The Under also has cashed in Seattle's past three games.
12-06-20	Colts v. Texans UNDER 51		26-20	Win	100	57 h 53 m	Show
These teams averaged a combined 40 points in last season's two meetings. This game shapes up to be lower-scoring than projected, too, as these division foes are very well acquainted with each other. The Colts have offensive line injuries. Left tackle Anthony Castonzo is out and center Ryan Kelly is questionable. Philip Rivers figures to be more game-manager than downfield attacker. The Texans are very weak versus the run so I envision the Colts eating up clock with lots of running plays and Rivers sticking to short and safe passes. Deshaun Watson has been on fire. But he no longer has suspended deep threat Will Fuller and hasn't dealt with a defense this good since Week 3 when the Texans faced Pittsburgh and lost, 28-21. When Fuller hasn't been in the lineup, Watson has thrown for 55 fewer yards per game and a full TD pass less.

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