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College Football Archive
Date	Match Up	Rating	Score	Result	Profit	Lead Time	Analysis
11-17-21	Central Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 59.5	Top	37-17	Win	100	21 h 15 m	Show
Considering the weather forecast for Muncie, Ind., the total on this game is too high. There's a 90 percent chance of rain with winds in the 10-to-20 mph range. That's going to hurt the passing attack of both teams and means more running plays. Central Michigan ranks a respectable 56th versus the run. Ball State is a bend-but-not-break type of defense. You can move the ball on the Cardinals, but they don't give up many explosive plays. The Under has cashed the last six times Ball State has played at home.
11-13-21	Nevada v. San Diego State OVER 45		21-23	Loss	-110	28 h 42 m	Show
Granted San Diego State is the best defense Nevada has seen all season. But the Wolf Pack are going to get their share of points with QB Carson Strong and his strong group of receiving targets. Nevada is averaging 40 points in its last six games. The Wolf Pack lead the Mountain West Conference in scoring at 36.4 points. Strong is fourth in the nation in passing yards with 3,197 yards. He's completed 70.5 percent of his passes. San Diego State is going to hold up its end of the bargain, too, in getting this total Over. The Aztecs are a top-40 rushing team. Lucas Johnson is an upgrade for them at QB replacing Jordon Brookshire. The Wolf Pack rank 102nd in pass defense. So they can't stack the line to key on the run without being vulnerable in their already weak secondary.
11-13-21	NC State v. Wake Forest UNDER 66.5		42-45	Loss	-110	28 h 33 m	Show
Just because Wake Forest and North Carolina scored a combined 113 points in the Tar Heels' 58-55 win last week, doesn't mean the Demon Deacons are going to produce a ton of points this week. That was a deflating loss for them halting their unbeaten season and now they draw a tough defensive foe in North Carolina State. North Carolina managed just 23 points against Pittsburgh Thursday night. I expect Wake Forest's scoring will be down, too, from last week. North Carolina State ranks seventh in scoring defense giving up only 16 points a game. Only 17 teams give up fewer yards per game than the Wolfpack. North Carolina State hasn't topped 28 points in its last two games against Louisville and Florida State. Those are both below defenses.
11-13-21	South Alabama v. Appalachian State UNDER 52.5	Top	7-31	Win	100	23 h 53 m	Show
South Alabama is without its starting QB Jake Bentley, who is out with a knee injury. That puts more pressure on the Jaguars' ground attack, which hasn't been good. The Jaguars rank 96th in rushing. I don't expect South Alabama to score many points here. But the Jaguars do have a good defense. Only 16 teams give up fewer yards per game than South Alabama. The Jaguars are 21st in run defense. Appalachian State runs nearly 60 percent of the time. The Mountaineers will be content to run clock not taking chances against this weak foe, especially considering the weather forecast. Heavy winds in the 16-28 mph range are being forecast. This is a huge plus for the Under.
11-06-21	Oregon v. Washington UNDER 51		26-16	Win	100	34 h 34 m	Show
This is a bitter rivalry game as these teams recruit hard against each other. So I'm expecting an intense, defensive-minded game. Washington has the top pass defense in the country. The Huskies rank 17th in scoring defense holding foes to 18.9. They've held their past three opponents, all Pac-12 teams, to an average of 17.6 points. This is the game where the Ducks really could miss their best runner, CJ Verdell. He's out for the season. Oregon has intercepted 11 passes and features the No. 1 defensive lineman in the country, Kayvon Thibodeaux. He's being projected as the No. 1 pick in the draft. Rain and heavy wind are in the forecast, which are two more huge pluses for the Under.
11-06-21	Kansas State v. Kansas UNDER 57	Top	35-10	Win	100	96 h 11 m	Show
Don't expect many points in this in-state rivalry matchup. Not only are the offenses well below average, but so is the tempo. Both Kansas and Kansas State rank among the bottom 10 in pace. Kansas State ranks 93rd in total yards and 77th in scoring at 27.5 points. This is in the high-scoring Big 12 Conference, too. The Wildcats are much better defensively ranking in the top 50 in fewest yards and points allowed. They also have the 26th best rush defense, bad news for the Jayhawks. Kansas averages a puny 15.8 points a game. The Jayhawks rank 120th in total yards. They are averaging 11.7 points in their last four games - all versus Big 12 foes. The Jayhawks are terrible on defense, too. But surprisingly they don't give up that many explosive ways. Foes have to launch long drives to put up points on Kansas. This eats up clock. The Jayhaws should be their most fired-up against this opponent.
10-30-21	Arizona v. USC UNDER 56		34-41	Loss	-110	28 h 52 m	Show
A game involving winless Arizona shouldn't have a total this high. The Wildcats rank 127th in scoring at a meager 14.3 points a game. The Under has cashed in Arizona's last three games, winning by an average of more than 10 points under the total. The Wildcats, though, haven't quit on defense. They held Washington to seven points in the fourth quarter last week before losing, 21-16. Mistake-prone USC is in disarray. The Trojans have an interim coach and morale issues. They are averaging 21 points their last two games, losses to Notre Dame and Utah. USC QB Kedon Slovis entered this season highly-rated. But Slovis has put up mediocre numbers with a 9-to-6 TD-to-interception ratio.
10-30-21	Southern Miss v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 48		10-35	Win	100	25 h 43 m	Show
Discount a 37-0 victory against Grambling, an FCS opponent, and Southern Mississippi hasn't scored more than 19 points all season. The Golden Eagles are averaging a puny 14.1 points. Southern Mississippi rushes for only 2.5 yards a carry and its QB's have combined to throw 11 interceptions and just seven TD's. The Golden Eagles are second to last in the nation in yards per play. Middle Tennessee State is tied with Iowa for the most takeaways with 20. The Golden Eagles, though, are better defensively. Their defensive numbers are skewed by giving up 63 points to Alabama. Middle Tennessee State ranks 104th in yards gained. Weather could factor here, too. Rain is expected with winds in the 12-20 mph range.
10-23-21	Oklahoma State v. Iowa State UNDER 47.5		21-24	Win	100	17 h 15 m	Show
Don't be fooled by some of the skill position stars such as Breece Hall, Jaylen Warren and Tay Martin. Defense is going to dominate more than offense. Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12 surrendering 16.3 points and 251.3 yards. Oklahoma State will need to effectively run because its QB, Spencer Sanders, is such an inaccurate passer. The Cyclones rank 14th in rush defense holding foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Iowa State ranks 20th from the the bottom in tempo. The Cyclones play at a very leisurely pace. They are going to feed Hall the ball a lot. Oklahoma State ranks 15th in run defense. The Cowboys also hold foes to fewer than 100 yards rushing a game. Cowboys linebacker Malcolm Rodriguez leads the Big 12 in tackles.
10-23-21	Kent State v. Ohio OVER 65.5		34-27	Loss	-113	97 h 43 m	Show
These two MAC teams last played two seasons ago. There were 83 points scored. There could be that many points produced this time around, too. Kent State has a very good QB in Dustin Crum. The Golden Flashes' offensive statistics are skewed by the tough non-conference defenses they faced earlier in the season - Texas A&M, Maryland and Iowa. But since MAC play began, the Golden Flashes are averaging 35.3 points in their three conference games. A big thing about Kent State is it plays at the second fastest tempo in the country. Ohio gives up 30.7 points. The Bobcats rank 99th in yards allowed. The 1-6 Bobcats are bad. But they do one thing right - run the ball. Their QB, Armani Rogers, is a running quarterback. Only 31 teams average more yards on the ground than Ohio. Kent State ranks 121st in rush defense. So the Bobcats should be able to contribute their share of points. (Update: I put this play out early in the week anticipating the total would climb, which it has. Even though the line value is gone now, the handicap still holds. I expect there will be 70 or more combined points scored.)
10-16-21	Alabama v. Mississippi State OVER 57.5	Top	49-9	Win	100	26 h 16 m	Show
Alabama put up 41 points on Mississippi State last year. The Crimson Tide are in the mood to run up a score after getting upset, 41-38, by Texas A&M last week. The Crimson Tide average 44.3 points per game. Only five teams score more per game. Not surprisingly, Mississippi State is all about passing under Mike Leach. The Bulldogs rank fifth in the nation in passing yards. Zach Calzada burned Alabama for nearly 300 passing yards and 3 TD throws last week. Mississippi State QB Will Rogers is the second-most accurate passer in the country connecting on 75.7 percent of his throws. Rogers has thrown for 1,862 yards with a 14-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. So the Bulldogs should put up their share of points.
10-16-21	Vanderbilt v. South Carolina UNDER 51.5		20-21	Win	100	16 h 8 m	Show
These teams don't have strong defenses, but their offenses are terrible. Vanderbilt is last in the nation in scoring averaging 13.3 points in its six games. The Commodores are 121st in yards per game at 310.7. South Carolina ranks 108th in scoring at 22 points and is 112th in yards at 335. The Gamecocks also play at a very slow tempo. Vanderbilt passes more than South Carolina. However, the Gamecocks' defense strength is their secondary. They rank 12th in pass defense. Weather could factor, too, as there is a wind and a chance of rain.
10-16-21	Ohio v. Buffalo UNDER 57.5		26-27	Win	100	56 h 5 m	Show
Ohio has one of the worst offenses in the country. The Bobcats average just 19.3 points. They rank 119th in passing yards. The Bobcats are a running team, which eats clock. Buffalo ranks 95th in passing. The Bulls also like to run a lot. The Bulls' offense numbers are skewed because they opened the season scoring 69 points against Wagner, a non-Division I school. Another big key to the Under is weather. The forecast in Buffalo is for rain and heavy wind in the 20-to-35 mph range.
10-09-21	New Mexico State v. Nevada OVER 62.5	Top	28-55	Win	100	30 h 59 m	Show
Nevada averages more than 32 points a game and has one of the best QB's in the country, Carson Strong. New Mexico State is one of the worst defensive teams in the nation ranking 115th in scoring defense giving up 34.2 points and 113th in yards allowed at 449.8. It's safe to expect Nevada to put up at least 40 points on the Aggies. The key here is getting enough scoring from New Mexico State. I see that happening. The Aggies are a passing team, averaging 43 throws per game. It's a short passing attack, but they are not run-oriented at all. The Aggies have averaged 30 points per game in their last four matchups facing San Jose State, Hawaii, South Carolina State and New Mexico. The weather should be fine with no rain and little wind.
10-09-21	Florida State v. North Carolina OVER 63.5		35-25	Loss	-110	66 h 53 m	Show
North Carolina is averaging 37.6 points and has a top-20 offense spearheaded by one of the best QB's in college football, Sam Howell. But what's scary about the Tar Heels is they still have room to improve offensively. That could come against Florida State, which gives up 31.4 points and ranks 103rd in pass defense. Howell is on a streak of four straight 300 passing yards games. The Tar Heels are big favorites here, but I expect Florida State to contribute its share of points. North Carolina has a below average defense. Seminoles QB Jordan Travis holds the school record for most career rushing yards. The Tar Heels rank 72nd in rush defense. Their defense has come up with only three takeaways.
10-09-21	Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 47		34-10	Win	100	22 h 15 m	Show
Good luck to Bo Nix and Auburn's offense. They will need it here. Georgia is the No. 1 defensive team in the nation. The Bulldogs rank first in scoring defense giving up an insanely-low 4.6 points a game and are No. 1 in total yards and pass defense. Auburn has some good running backs. But the Bulldogs have the fourth-best run defense, too. Georgia is a running team. The Bulldogs probably are going to run even more than their 62 percent because their star QB, JT Daniels, isn't likely to play due to a back injury. The Bulldogs also play at a very slow tempo. Auburn ranks 15th in run defense giving up 90 yards on the ground and just 2.5 yards per carry.
10-02-21	Old Dominion v. UTEP OVER 48		21-28	Win	100	26 h 25 m	Show
This is a low total for a college game featuring two lower-scale defenses. Old Dominion gives up 32.3 points a game. UTEP yields nearly 25 points per game. The Monarchs can run the ball somewhat effectively. They also play at a fast tempo, which is a huge key. The perception with UTEP is that it can't produce points. That perception doesn't hold true anymore. The Miners actually have a couple of dangerous receiving weapons. Jacob Cowing averages 23.4 yards per catch, while Justin Garrett averages 17.4 7yards a reception. As a team, the Miners rank in the top 50 in yards per play.
10-02-21	Liberty v. UAB UNDER 50		36-12	Win	100	105 h 13 m	Show
Liberty draws attention because of Malik Willis, one of the best QB's in the country. But the Flames have one of the top defenses in the country, too, ranking 14th in fewest points and eighth in total yards. UAB couldn't step up in class when it played Georgia. The Blazers were blown out in that game. But playing foes at their level, the Blazers are very good. They have given up 27 points in their three other games. Both teams are run-oriented and play at a slow tempo. Liberty has pass protection issues that UAB can take advantage of.
10-02-21	Tulane v. East Carolina OVER 64		29-52	Win	100	91 h 13 m	Show
There are reasons why 11 of East Carolina's last 15 games have gone Over. The Pirates play up-tempo, have a good veteran QB in Holton Ahlers and a terrible defense that ranks 127th in yards allowed. Tulane also is far better on offense than defense. The Green Wave average 36.5 points, but surrender 37.3 points a game. This should be a fast-paced game where offenses totally dominate.
09-25-21	Arkansas State v. Tulsa OVER 62.5		34-41	Win	100	28 h 11 m	Show
Arkansas State gives up the most yards per play of any team in the country. Tulsa is stepping way down in class having played Ohio State and Oklahoma State in its last two games. The Golden Hurricane produced more than 500 yards against Ohio State and had 25 first downs. They are going to put up a lot of points on Arkansas State. But the Red Wolves are going to put up their share of points, too. They are a fast-paced team with two decent QB's and three excellent wide receivers. Arkansas State throws 62 percent of the time. Tulsa's defense is down from last year, no longer having superstar linebacker Zaven Collins.
09-25-21	Colorado State v. Iowa UNDER 44.5	Top	14-24	Win	100	30 h 27 m	Show
Colorado State has quarterback issues. The Rams rank 107th in scoring at 22 points a game. They are not going to dent Iowa's elite defense, which gives up the fourth-fewest points per game in the country. The Hawkeyes have accomplished this against respectable offenses, too, holding Iowa State to 17 points and Kent State to seven points during their last two games. The Rams also are going to be missing their most dangerous wide receiver, Dante Wright. He isn't expected to play because of a knee injury. Iowa lacks an explosive offense. The Hawkeyes are conservative and slow-paced. They play a grind-out style that keeps the clock moving. So it's not a fluke the Under has won 75 percent during the past 21 times Iowa has been a home favorite going 15-5-1.
09-23-21	Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 56.5	Top	30-31	Win	100	77 h 32 m	Show
The oddsmaker opened this total too low given the quality of QB's and Marshall's overrated defense. The Thundering Herd averages 43.7 points while playing at one of the fastest paces in the nation. They also rank No. 2 in total yards and No. 3 in passing yards behind Grant Wells. Appalachian State is an above average offensive team. Chase Brice has looked good under center for the Mountaineers and Camerun Peoples is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. The Mountaineers are going against a Marshall defense that isn't as good as people thought after the Thundering Herd surrendered 42 points to East Carolina.
09-18-21	Oklahoma State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5		21-20	Win	100	26 h 50 m	Show
Oklahoma State and Boise State aren't the offensive powerhouses of past seasons. Yet the perception is there that they are. Oklahoma State has a banged-up wide receiver corps. The Cowboys' run-blocking hasn't been good. Boise State is averaging only 2.4 yards when it runs the ball. So the Broncos have trouble run-blocking, too. I'm also not sold on Hank Bachmneier as the next great Boise State QB. The weather can get tricky in Boise. That very well could be the case here as there's a chance of rain with winds in the 15-25 mph range.
09-18-21	Auburn v. Penn State UNDER 53		20-28	Win	100	24 h 21 m	Show
Seeing is believing. Auburn and Penn State have dominant defenses. Auburn has played a pair of lightweights, but still only gave up 10 points to Alabama State and Akron. The Tigers have the pass rushers in T.D. Moultry and Marquis Banks to harass Sean Clifford, who regressed last season. The Nittany Lions don't have the outstanding running back either of previous years. Likewise, Auburn isn't going to find things easy on offense operating against a tough Penn State defense that held its previous two opponents, Wisconsin and Ball State, to a combined 23 points. Auburn QB Bo Nixon has a history of playing worse on the road where he has more interceptions than touchdowns.
09-18-21	Virginia Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 50.5		21-27	Win	100	33 h 19 m	Show
Virginia Tech is showing signs of having one of the top defenses in the country. The Hokies held North Carolina and its superstar QB Sam Howell to 10 points and then held Middle Tennessee State to 14 points. The Hokies have permitted 703 yards combined, recorded nine sacks and have four interceptions. West Virginia is no slouch defensively either. The Mountaineers are tough against the run. Virginia Tech is run-oriented. The Hokies rank 88th in yards per play despite playing less than stellar defenses.
09-11-21	Missouri v. Kentucky OVER 53.5		28-35	Win	100	122 h 50 m	Show
Good defense, mediocre run-oriented offense. That's been Kentucky's style and stereotype for years. It's different this year, though, and the oddsmaker hasn't fully caught on yet. The Wildcats' defense is down this season. Missouri has the offensive weapons to take advantage. Missouri doesn't have a good defense, though. The Wildcats are playing at a faster tempo under new offensive coordinator, Liam Coen, a disciple of Sean McVay as an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Rams before coming to Kentucky. Coen has the reputation as an offensive whiz with an emphasis on passing. Will Levis is a much better passer than the Wildcats have previously had in recent seasons.
09-11-21	South Alabama v. Bowling Green UNDER 51.5		22-19	Win	100	118 h 8 m	Show
South Alabama held Southern Mississippi to seven points and 259 yards of offense in a 31-7 opening victory last week. Yes, Southern Mississippi is bad although Frank Gore Jr. is one of the better running backs in Conference USA. This defensive effort wasn't a fluke. The Jaguars' defense is improved under defensive-minded Kane Wommack, who did an excellent job as defensive coordinator at Indiana before coming to South Alabama. Bowling Green is better defensively than on offense. The Falcons have scored 36 points in their last four games, including six against Tennessee last week. That's an average of nine points per game. Both teams play at a slow pace, too.
09-11-21	Buffalo v. Nebraska OVER 54.5		3-28	Loss	-110	24 h 42 m	Show
I get that the opponents of these two teams were Wagner and Fordham last week. Still, both Buffalo and Nebraska's offenses looked great. I'm betting these offenses stay that way this week. I trust the offenses more than the defenses. The Bulls buried Wagner, 69-7, while Nebraska rolled past Fordham 52-7. Cornhuskers QB Adrian Martinez played one of his best games, while the Bulls showed they can still run the ball piling up 312 yards on the ground after superstar runner Jaret Patterson moved on to the pros.
09-06-21	Louisville v. Ole Miss UNDER 76	Top	24-43	Win	100	16 h 52 m	Show
The oddsmaker is envisioning a monster shootout with this large of a total. I understand the thinking. Both teams have excellent QB's and defenses that are not well respected. I just don't agree with that high-of-a-score thinking. I like Mississippi QB Matt Corral a lot. He's a likely first-round draft pick. Louisville, however, isn't that bad on defense. The Cardinals were fourth in the ACC in yards allowed and return seven starters from that unit. Corral doesn't have monster talent Elijah Moore anymore. He's with the Jets now. Mississippi's defense is much maligned. But when last spotted the Rebels were holding Indiana to 20 points in a 26-20 Outback Bowl victory. The Rebels are big in the trenches, have athletic linebackers and an experienced secondary. Louisville QB Malik Cunningham is more dangerous as a runner. The Cardinals run more than they pass so that's going to eat clock. Cunningham lost his two best wide receivers from a year ago. The Rebels will be without Lane Kiffin, an aggressive, offensive-minded coach. He tested positive for COVID-19 and has to miss the game. I regard that as a plus for the Under.

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